








This study uses data mining analytics techniques including trained multiple regression models to identify the predictors of AP pass rates in CA public high schools using publicly available data from the State of California's Department of Education website. The independent variables included in the analysis explored the relationship of elementary and middle school characteristics such as Math and English Language Arts (ELA) test scores, as well as the degree of poverty at a school represented by the percentage of students qualifying for Free and Reduced-Price Meals (FRPM). Other variables considered were the percentage of English Language Learners (ELL's), the size of the school, special curricular programs (IB program, dual language), whether the school was a charter or traditional public school, as well as the age of the school. The multiple regression model and exploratory correlational analysis, highlighted interaction effects of two key variables, FRPM and ELL's. Our final results indicated that, higher 3rd grade math scores offered some mediating effects protecting against the negative effect of high levels of FRPM and ELL students at a school. 3rd grade Math scores were the best predictor of high school AP pass rates. Unfortunately, the effect of 3rd grade mean math scores was not high enough to completely cancel out the effects of high rates of poverty or being an English language learner.
