Acta Polytechnica CTU Proceedings


https://doi.org/10.14311/APP.2024.51.0001
Acta Polytechnica CTU Proceedings 51:1–5, 2024 © 2024 The Author(s). Licensed under a CC-BY 4.0 licence

Published by the Czech Technical University in Prague

WAYS TO IDENTIFY FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO THE
OCCURRENCE OF ROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS

Kairatolla K. Abisheva,∗, Almagul N. Baltabekovaa,
Assylbek Zh. Kassenovb, Ruslan B. Mukanovc, Karlygash B. Assylovaa

a Toraighyrov University, Faculty of Engineering, Department of Transport Engineering and Logistics, 64 Lomov
street, Pavlodar, 140008, Republic of Kazakhstan

b Toraighyrov University, Faculty of Engineering, Department of Mechanical Engineering and Standardization,
64 Lomov street, Pavlodar, 140008, Republic of Kazakhstan

c Satbayev University, Institute of Energy and Mechanical Engineering named after A. Burkitbayev, 22a Satpayev
street, Almaty, 050013, Republic of Kazakhstan

∗ corresponding author: abishev.k@teachers.tou.edu.kz

Abstract. The article deals with the issues of determining the factors contributing to the occurrence
of road accidents. On the basis of statistical studies, the main factors most fully reflecting the process of
occurrence of road traffic accidents were identified. For this purpose, an expert-statistical method was
used. Road safety assessment was carried out on the example of the roads of the city of Pavlodar. The
results obtained allow, in the future, to build a mathematical model that characterizes the possibility
of a traffic accident.

Keywords: Car, accident, driver, road, traffic accident, traffic safety.

1. Introduction
The movement of cars on the road is considered as
a complex interconnected system. The structure of
this system includes the following elements: “Driver”,
“Car”, “Road” and “Environment”. The driver of
a motor vehicle is the main link in the “Driver-Car-
Road-Environment” (DCRE) system, the sustainable
functioning of which determines the efficiency and
safety of road traffic. The driver, driving the car, is
in constant tension. In motion, he continuously per-
ceives and comprehends the rapidly changing traffic
situation, position, speed and condition of his vehicle,
instantly makes decisions and implements them. Such
an active and continuous course of psychic phenom-
ena in conditions of rapidly changing conditions and
danger increases the tension of the nervous system
and leads to fatigue, and sometimes to overfatigue of
the driver.
When driving a car, the driver must receive and

adequately analyze a large amount of information
(the road, controls, road signs and markings, control
devices and the operation of the car’s systems and
mechanisms, meteorological traffic conditions, etc.).
In addition, he must be able to predict the devel-
opment of the road situation and choose the safest
driving modes. With high dynamism, variable condi-
tions and tight time constraints on decision-making,
the driver is constantly under great emotional stress.
The complexity of the Driver-Car-Road-Environment
system lies in the fact that it contains ambiguous rela-
tionships and patterns of interconnection between its
elements, the system is multicriteria and the processes
occurring in it are of a stochastic nature, it is difficult

to model the DCRE system. The DCRE system can
be classified as complex due to its multidimensionality,
the diversity of the nature of elements, connections,
structural heterogeneity, and also due to the fact that
the system operates under conditions of significant un-
certainty of the environmental impact. Its complexity
is exacerbated by the random nature of the change in
its indicators [1, 2].

2. Materials and methods
2.1. Study of the interrelations between

the elements of the DCRE system
In an environment characterized by high traffic inten-
sity, in which huge masses of people and vehicles are
involved, road safety activities are multifaceted and
diverse. Assessing the importance of road safety, it
should be noted that this problem has specific fea-
tures of both a legal and organizational and manage-
rial nature. Indicators of the level of road safety are
a function of many variables, a number of models for
assessing and predicting accidents for interstate com-
parisons take into account the dynamics of changes in
accidents over time, as well as other indicators that
affect changes in the level of traffic safety (models of
practical actions). Such models make it possible to
monitor trends in the level of traffic safety in the coun-
try and take into account the possibilities of future
development of the situation [3].
For motor vehicles, human errors are the cause of

90% of all accidents. At the same time, in 57% of
accidents, human error is almost the only factor that
could lead to an accident. Only 2.4% of accidents
can be explained solely by a technical malfunction,

1

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K. K. Abishev, A. N. Baltabekova, A. Zh. Kassenov et al. Acta Polytechnica CTU Proceedings

and an unfavorable environment (that is, phenomena
like ice) is the cause of 4.7% of road accidents. The
remaining 35.9% of accidents occur due to a complex
combination of various factors [4]. Considering the
human factor in the context of the Driver-Car-Road-
Environment system, the phenomenon is multifaceted.
Any component of this system has a multifaceted
effect on the level of safety of road users.

The human factor has a very strong influence on the
occurrence of accidents on the roads, despite the fact
that recently the level of control automation allows
technology to prevent collisions and other accidents.
When studying the factors influencing the occur-

rence of road traffic accidents (RTA), the reliability
of the system Ps depends on the degree of influence
of each element, which in general can be expressed as
a derivative of the probability of failure-free operation
of the car Pc, the driver Pd and the road Pr [5, 6]:

Ps = Pc · Pd · Pr. (1)

The probability of failure-free operation of each
element of the system is estimated by the derivative
of the probability of failure-free operation of each
element

Pc = Π · Pci,

Pd = Π · Pdi,

Pr = Π · Pri.

(2)

In this system, the “Driver” element has been stud-
ied in detail as a very complex element. Also in-
troduced the concept of “defect” in the work of the
driver, which arose as a result of changes in loads,
psychophysiological indicators under the influence of
road conditions.

Considering the relationship between the elements
of the DCRE system from the point of view of as-
sessing the safety of traffic modes, eight significant
relationships can be distinguished [7, 8]. But the study
of the relationship between the elements of the system
is a difficult task, so it is necessary to study the course
of the environmental impact on the road and consider
the relationship of elements in the “environment-road”,
“road-driver”, “road-car” systems. It has been estab-
lished that safe movement is ensured by the causes
of a constant or changing DCRE system within the
minimum intermediate limits, and this trend can be
represented as the following function

Pred = f {DCRE} = const. (3)

Examination of the system approximation when
considering the transport process, as well as road
safety, shows that it is difficult to distinguish the
main one from the total number of accidents due to
a number of reasons. Violation of even one indicator
of the elements of the DCRE system can lead to an
accident. Therefore, for a comprehensive assessment
of the influence of various elements of the system on
the accident rate, it is necessary to identify the main
causal factors of the DCRE system [9–11].

We form a mathematical problem as follows. It
is required to find an expert transformation of the
cause-and-effect relationships of the occurrence of road
accidents, their determining causes, i.e., to find a func-
tion of the following type

TA = f(X1, X2, X3, . . . , Xn), (4)

where TA – traffic accident; X1, . . . , Xn – mutual
set of causes affecting the occurrence of an accident,
carried out in two stages.

2.2. Study of the interrelations between
the elements of the TA system

Let’s consider the results of the examination of statis-
tical data on the registration of road traffic accidents.
The work at the first stage consists of an exami-

nation of the primary documentation and statistical
data on the accounting of accidents in order to select
the main causes that are the causes of the accident
from among the causes in the DCRE system.
Since the traffic safety assessment was carried out

on the example of the roads of the city of Pavlodar,
the assessment of the factors of the “road” system
was carried out based on the road conditions of the
considered road junction.
Statistical materials of the Traffic Police Depart-

ment of the city of Pavlodar were used as conditional
values for the research, the subdivisions of highways
in the places of occurrence of accidents were studied.
As a result of statistical studies, 19 factors were

selected that determine the process of occurrence of
an accident in more detail. They are listed below in
Table 1.

Professional expertise is required to select a small
number of the most informative factors. During the
research of the second stage aimed at achieving this
goal, an expert statistical method of constructing the
objective function was used, based on the methodology
described in [12]. Each accident is largely character-
ized by a mutual combination of factors X1,. . . , Xn.
Some factors are much more common in road acci-
dents than others. Many of them are not subject to
direct quantitative measurement, which makes it diffi-
cult for further research to determine the true factor
that caused the occurrence of an accident. Therefore,
in order to obtain maximum information about the
factors influencing the occurrence of an accident, it is
necessary to determine them essentially in descending
order, that is, to obtain an inequality of the following
type

X1 < X2 < X3 < · · · < Xn. (5)
According to experts, the factors that make the

greatest contribution to the phenomenon under study
have the smallest sum of degrees X1, and the factors
with the least effect have the largest sum Xn.

The collection of opinions on the factors that most
affect the occurrence of an accident was carried out
by conducting a survey among employees of the Traf-
fic Police Department, specialists of the automobile

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vol. 51/2024 Ways to identify factors contributing to the occurrence . . .

X Factors System
X1 Driver’s experience

“Driver”

X2 Driver’s class
X3 Driver’s age
X4 Driver’s gender
X5 Driver’s condition (drunk, sober)
X6 Driving time before the accident
X7 Non-compliance with traffic rules
X8 Technical condition of the car “Car”
X9 High traffic intensity

“Road”

X10 Insufficient width of the roadway
X11 Presence of road signs
X12 Low coefficient of adhesion
X13 Non-compliance of road conditions with the requirements of the traffic regime
X14 Road irregularities
X15 Visibility conditions
X16 Narrow bridges and railway crossings
X17 Weather conditions (blizzard, fog, precipitation)

“Environment”X18 Time of day (light, dark)
X19 Season

Table 1. Factors affecting the accident rate according to statistics.

enterprise, road managers, teachers and staff of the
Department of Transport Engineering and Logistics
of Toraigyrov University. The number of experts is
determined based on the following criteria.

The number of experts N� should be 3 times more
than the n reasons included in the register

N� = 3 · n = 3 · 19 = 57. (6)

Therefore, 60 expert specialists represented in the
survey were involved in the experiment.

Based on the survey data, a comparative question-
naire or a matrix of degrees has been compiled. A sign
of the correctness of filling in the tables is the equality
of the amounts received for all columns

n∑
j=1

Xij = (1 + n) · n
2 , (7)

where Xij is the degree of the j-th reason of the i-th
expert; n is the number of reasons.

Determining the significance of the influence of the
selected factors on the occurrence of emergency situa-
tions from the point of view of the interviewed experts
is performed only after calculating the sum of the rows
and the sum of each row, which should coincide with
the amount received by the columns

n∑
j=1

Xij

m∑
i=1

Xij =
n∑

i=1
Xij +

m∑
j=1

Xij . (8)

Let’s build a histogram based on the values of the
degree matrix and enter into the database of the Mi-
crosoft Excel program the law of distribution of the
sum of the degrees of influence of the selected factors
on the occurrence of an accident.

2.3. Definition of interoperability of
examiners

One of the important elements of the survey is the
degree of mutual compatibility between experts, which
is determined using concordance coefficients, which
are calculated using the formula below

W = 12 · S
m2(n2 − n) , (9)

S =
n∑

j=1
X

(
m∑

i=1
Xij

∑n
j=1 Xij

∑m
i=1 Xij

n

)2

. (10)

With full compatibility between specialists, the con-
cordance coefficient is equal to one, in the absence of
this compatibility – zero, i.e., the intervals of changing
the value of W lie within 0 ≤ W ≤ 1.
The significance of the concordance coefficients is

determined using the Pearson sign ξ2, which has the
number of degrees of freedom n = 1, according to the
formula given below

ξ2 = m(n− 1)ω = S
1

12mn(n+ 1)
. (11)

If the calculated value of ξ2 is higher than the
table value, then the assumption of randomness in the
mutual consistency of expert opinion is refuted.
As a result of the experiment conducted to collect

expert opinions on Formulas (9), (10), the value of
the concordance coefficient was calculated

W = 12 · 210632
602(193 − 19) − 0.10265. (12)

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K. K. Abishev, A. N. Baltabekova, A. Zh. Kassenov et al. Acta Polytechnica CTU Proceedings

Y is the degree of significance, X is the factors provoking an accident.

Figure 1. Histogram of the significance of factors affecting the accident rate, according to the results of expert
examination.

X Factors Degree of
significance

X1 Driver’s experience 73%
X2 Driver’s class 53%
X3 Driver’s condition (drunk, sober) 87%
X4 Driving time before the accident 45%
X5 Non-compliance with traffic rules 98%
X6 Technical condition of the car 85%
X7 High traffic intensity 78%
X8 Low coefficient of adhesion 66%
X9 Non-compliance of road conditions with the requirements of the traffic regime 60%
X10 Road irregularities 57%
X11 Visibility conditions 49%
X12 Weather conditions (blizzard, fog, precipitation) 79%
X13 Time of day (light, dark) 48%

Table 2. Important factors affecting the accident rate in Pavlodar.

Also, according to the Formula (11), its significance
was checked by the Pearson sign ξ2

ξ2 = 210632
60·19·20

12
= 110.86. (13)

Comparing the calculated value of the Pearson sign
ξ2 for the 5% significance level with the tabular value
ξ2 = 26.3, it can be concluded that when assessing
the significance of factors affecting the occurrence of
an accident with a probability of p = 0.95, the opinion
of experts is not accidental.

ξ2
cur = ξ2

tab,

110.86 > 26.3.
(14)

2.4. Factors influencing accident rates
Analyzing the values of Table 1 and the histogram in
Figure 1, it is possible to determine the most impor-
tant factors affecting the accident rate. Factors with
a degree of significance below 40% have also been
identified. We exclude them from the table.
Less significant reasons are: “insufficient width of

the roadway” – 31%, “presence of road signs” – 26%,

“driver’s age” – 28%, “driver’s gender” – 18%, “narrow
bridges and railway crossings” – 16% and “season” –
13%. Each of the listed reasons is, to one degree or
another, only a factor accompanying the other.
The results of the traffic safety assessment on the

example of the roads of the city of Pavlodar are pre-
sented in Table 2. As mentioned above, this table
does not take into account the factors affecting the
accident rate, in which the degree of significance is
below 40%. As a result, the number of the most im-
portant factors affecting the accident rate in the city
of Pavlodar is 13.

3. Conclusions
According to the latest data, there is an increase in
the number of cars of all forms of ownership in the
Republic of Kazakhstan.
The growth of the country’s car park and the con-

stant increase in traffic intensity have brought to the
fore the problem of road safety as the most important
state task. In this regard, work aimed at ensuring
the reliability and safety of the driver’s activities is of
paramount importance.

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vol. 51/2024 Ways to identify factors contributing to the occurrence . . .

Using the results of the study to determine the fac-
tors influencing the accident rate in the conditions of
the city of Pavlodar, it is possible, in the future, to de-
termine the expert function and build a mathematical
model of road accidents.
Therefore, such research needs to be accelerated.

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	Acta Polytechnica CTU Proceedings 51:1–5, 2024
	1 Introduction
	2 Materials and methods
	2.1 Study of the interrelations between the elements of the DCRE system
	2.2 Study of the interrelations between the elements of the TA system
	2.3 Definition of interoperability of examiners
	2.4 Factors influencing accident rates

	3 Conclusions
	References