1999 Acta Structilia Vol 6 No 1 & 2 MS Badenhorst 1 Racial representation in the planning profession in South Africa: Some scenarios Summary The planning profession in South Africa, along with the majority of other institutions dating back to the previous dispensation, is to a large extent dominated by whites. Given the role which planners can play in the reconstruction and development of the country, and concomitant governmental pressure, the profession must become more representative of the country's population at large. The question is, however, how long it will take to bring about significant changes in the composition of the planners' corps under specified conditions. In this article various scenarios are examined, based on certain assumptions and on variations in the output of graduates from the various planning schools. The most important conclusion is that the composition of the planning population is not going to change overnight. Neither is there a quick-fix solution to the problem. The exploration indicates that a drastic change in the demographic composition of the planning profession lies beyond the professional lifetime of the majority of white planners of the present generation. Keywords:Planning profession, demographic composition, South Africa. RASSEVERTEENWOORDIGING IN DIE BEPLANNINGS­ PROFESSIE IN SUID-AFRIKA: ENKELE SCENARIO'S Die beplanningsprofessie in Suid-Afrika, soos die meerderheid ander instellings wat uit die vorige bedeling dateer, is in samestelling in 'n groot mate blank-gedomineerd. Gegewe die rol wat beplanners kan speel in die rekonstruksie en herontwikkeling van die land, asmede druk van owerheidswee, is die professie genoop om meer verteenwoordigend van die bevolking te wees. Die vraag is egter hoe lank sol dit neem om beduidende verandering in die samestelling van die beplannerskorps te weeg te bring onder bepaalde omstandighede? In die artikel word verskillende scenario's ondersoek wat gebaseer is op sekere aannames en 'n variasie in die lewering van swart graduandi deur die verskillende beplanningskole. Die vernaamste afleiding wat gemaak is, is dot die samestelling nie oornag verander kan word nie. Daar bestaan ook nie 'n maklike oplossing vir die probleem nie. Die ondersoek dui daarop dot 'n drastiese verandering in die demografiese samestelling van die beplanningskorps moeilik te voorsien is gedurende die dienstydperk van die huidige geslag blanke beplanners. Sleutelwoorde: beplanningsprofessie, demografiese samestelling, Suid-Afrika. MS Badenhorst. S(SA) TRP(SA) B Sc(T&RP) (UP) D Phil(RAU), Professor and Head: Department of Town and Regional Planning, University of Pretoria, SA Badenhorst/Racial representation in the planning profession Introduction It hardly requires in-depth analysis to realise that the planning profession in South Africa, likewise all other professions, is to all intents and purposes, dominated by whites. It is to a lesser degree male-dominated, since only 20% of the practising town and regional planners involved in a survey by Badenhorst (1995), some five years ago, were female. This ratio is, however, continually improving, since one-half of the students enrolled nation-wide in town and regional planning in 1994 were female. This figure fell back to 41% in 1997 (Table 1), which is probably only a temporary phenomenon. Since the same survey revealed that 54% of town and regional planners were Afrikaans-speaking, vis-a-vis 33% English-speakers, the profession is less linguistically dominated than in terms of gender or race. Furthermore, if an extended definition of planners is applied including those holding qualifications in areas other than town and regional planning, such as development planning, which typically draws more black students, as well as foreign qualifications, the linguistic domination is even less severe now than it was five years ago. All spheres of South African society are under pressure to restructure so as to become more representative of society at large. It could well be argued that the pressure on the planning profession is even greater, given the pivotal role which planners can play in the reconstruction and development of the country and its people. The crucial question is: How long will it take to effect changes in the racial composition of the body of planners under given conditions at the entry level of the profession? The aim of this paper is, first, to present a number of scenarios to illustrate the change in racial composition of the planning profession that can be expected/effected under varying conditions. To achieve this, the paper firstly makes a projection of the size of the planning population in the near future. This projection is based solely on the assumptions guiding the exercise (See Assumptions), and excludes any reference to the economy's future capacity to accommodate any particular number of planners. Secondly, the paper forecasts the racial composition of the future planning population based on varying black/white ratios at the level of entry into the profession (Table 3). Before setting out the assumptions on which the analysis is 2 1999 Acta Structilia Vol 6 No 1 & 2 based, a brief description of the present situation in terms of enrolments and graduates will be provided. Present situation The situation in terms of the gender and race of students enrolled in the seven departments of town and regional planning in the country is reflected in Table 1. The most striking feature of the information in Table 1, is the drop in the number of students registered for the various programmes in town and regional planning between 1994 and 1997 at the universities. The figure dropped from 402 in 1994 to 339 in 1997. The major slump occurred in 1997, as the enrolment figure for 1996 stood at 390 (Badenhorst, 1997). However, the decline in the numbers of students (and female students in particular) entering the various programmes cannot be construed as a long-term phenomenon (Badenhorst, 1998). From the contents of Table 1, it also appears that Africans have almost doubled their share of the enrolment figures, viz. an increase from 10,5% in 1994 to 19,2% in 1997. In absolute terms, however, this progress is not very significant as it involves only 23 more students. The doubling of the figure for Coloureds occurred from an even smaller base. At the same time the share of whites dropped by almost 10% to 72,3%. In total, the share of blacks (Africans, Coloureds and Asians) increased from 72 ( 18%) in 1994 to 94 (28%) in 1997. The survey of planning departments (Badenhorst, 1997) focused only on those programmes in town and regional planning accredited for registration purposes with the South African Council for Town and Regional Planners. It therefore excluded Technikons, as well as the Masters programme in development planning at the University of the Witwatersrand, which have since gained accreditation. According to Muller ( 1998), approximately 30 students enrolled this year in the development planning programme, of whom an average of 20 would typically proceed to study for the Masters degree. The number of graduates in 1997 was a round one dozen. A question on the number of graduates in 1996 was included in the 1997 survey of town and regional planning departments (Badenhorst, 1997). However, due to incomplete information 3 Table 1: Gender and race of students in town and regional planning Institution Gender Race Total (Universities of) Male Female African Asian Coloured White 1994 1997 1994 1997 1994 1997 1994 1997 1994 1997 1994 1997 1994 1997 Pretoria 45 43 57 31 1 6 . . . . 101 68 102 74 Witwatersrand 38 42 37 34 20 34 15 13 . 3 40 26 75 76 Potchefstroom 40 57 44 21 1 1 . . . . 83 77 84 78 Natal 20 18 22 12 13 14 8 5 2 . 19 11 42 30 Stellenbosch 13 13 14 12 . . . . 2 5 25 20 27 25 Cape Town 13 9 15 16 5 3 . . 3 1 20 21 28 25 Orange Free State 33 18 11 13 2 7 . . . 2 42 22 44 31 Total No. 202 200 200 139 42 65 23 18 7 11 330 245 402 339 % 50,3 59,0 49,7 41,0 10,5 19,2 5,7 5,3 1,7 3,2 82,1 72,3 100 100 Source: Badenhorst, 1998 1999 Acta Structilia Vol 6 No 1 & 2 returned on the question, the potential number of graduates per annum had to be calculated or deduced from the enrolment in the relevant year and in the previous year, viz. 1996 enrolments in the semi-final year for 1997 graduates, and so on. A graduation rate of 90% for the former was assumed. Table 2: Final year enrolment: Town and regional planning-students African Asian White Coloured Total N 21 6 91 5 123 1996 % N 17, 1 13 4,9 5 74,0 85 4,0 4 100,0 107 1997 1998* % N % 12,2 24 20,7 4,7 4 3,4 79,4 82 70,7 3,7 6 5,2 100,0 116 100,0 Calculated from 1997 enrolment in semi-final year of study. Source: Badenhorst, 1998 TOTAL N % 58 16,8 15 4.3 258 74,6 15 4,3 346 100,0 From Table 2 it can be calculated that some 312 graduates in town and regional planning could potentially have been produced in the three-year period ending in 1998 (346 x 0,9). The capacity of the seven departments of town and regional planning at South African universities to accommodate more students is nonetheless assumed to be higher as will be indicated. Assumptions In order to construct the various scenarios with regard to future racial representation in the planning profession, a number of assumptions had to be made. In another paper, Badenhorst ( 1998), applied a different size to the initial body of planners ( 1 200 vis-a-vis 2000) and a rate of entry into the profession of 120 planners per annum vis-a-vis 150 per annum in the present case. The outcomes of the two sets of calculations were remarkably consistent in so far as the rate of change in racial composition is 5 Badenhorst/Racial representation in the planning profession concerned. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model is not very sensitive to reasonable variations. The specific assumptions on which this paper is based are as follows: • An extended definition of planning was assumed to include town and regional planners, development planners and those holding other professional planning qualifications. • The body of planners was assumed to total 2 OOO, of whom 1 900 (95%) are whites and 100 (5%) are blacks. (According to Giudicci ( 1998) a total of 821 people are presently registered with the South African Council for Town and Regional Planners as professional planners and 273 as planners-in­ training. She estimates the former to represent slightly more than one-half of practising town and regional planners.) • The absorption of planning graduates into the workforce was accepted as 100% (See Introduction). • The age structure of the planning population was adapted from the 1993 age structure of town and regional planners (See Badenhorst, 199 5). • The entry rate into the planning profession was assumed to be 150 per annum ( 120 town and regional planners and 30 development planners and other professionals). • It was assumed that 40% of the entrants into the profession are younger than 24 and 60% 25 - 29 years. • The period of forecast was taken as 45 years, viz. the time it takes a person who enters the profession in the 20 - 24 years age category to exit the 60 - 64 years category. • The exit rate of people entering the profession was taken as one per cent per five-year period, i.e. for every 100 entering in 1998 at age 23, 92 will eventually exit at the age of 65 years in the year 2040. • The category "blacks" includes Africans, Asians and Coloureds. Methodology The cohort-survival method was applied to determine the outcomes of varying conditions relating to racial shares on the entry side of the profession. The population (2000) was divided into five-year cohorts, and the share of blacks in the new cohorts was varied in order to illustrate what effect each case would 6 1999 Acta Structilia Vol 6 No 1 & 2 have on the racial composition of the planning population for the different time frames. Outcomes were calculated for a 33% share of black entrants, a 50% share, a 66% share, and a 90% share. In order to do this, however, the growth of the planning population had to be projected in terms of the assumptions dis­ cussed above. Analysis The results of forecasting the planning populations are summaris­ ed in Table 3. Table 3: Projected share of whites Projected % Share of whites Year planning at various black entry rates 1998 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043 population 2 OOO 2 300 3 OOO 3 600 4 150 4 700 5 100 5 600 5 900 6 050 6 OOO 33% 95 92 86 81 78 76 73 71 70 68 67 50% 66% 90% 95 95 95 90 89 90 80 75 66 73 65 54 68 58 44 64 53 36 61 48 30 58 43 24 55 40 19 52 36 14 50 34 10 Starting off with a planning population of two thousand in 1998, a total of 6 OOO planners is projected for the year 2043 (Figure 1). The three-thousand mark is expected to be reached by the year 2005, the four-thousand mark by 2013 and the five-thousand mark by 2023 (Table 3). After passing the six-thousand level in 2035 and peaking at 6 200 in 2038, the population is projected to drop back to six thousand as the last of the current (white) planners exit at the age of 65. 7 BadenhorsVRacial representation in the planning profession Figure 1: Projected growth of planning population (x 103 ) 7 6 5 4 3 2 .,, / .. - / � f- f- .. / f- .. / �-' f- .. �-1 � -1 6 - �-' �-' f- /. �-1 �-· 3 /2 -� • Ill 1998 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043 YEAR f- f- f- f- f- Figure 2 illustrates the effect that a 33% entry of black planners would have on the racial composition of the planning population up to the year 2043 (See also Table 3). This scenario more or less represents the effect the indefinite maintenance of the present level of black entry for a 43 year duration would have on the racial composition of the body of planners. Figure 2: Racial shares (33% black entry per annum) 100 90 80 ... 70 60 z 50 40 30 .... 20 10 0 8 1998 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043 YEAR lawhites as1ocks j 1999 Acta Structilia Vol 6 No 1 & 2 The maximum share that blacks can eventually attain in the planning profession under prevailing conditions, i.e. with at maximum one-third of new entrants belonging to this category, is obviously not more than 33% (Table 3). Figure 3: Racial shares (50% black entry per annum) 100 90 80 ... 70 60 z 50 40 30 .... 20 10 0 1998 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043 YEAR jcwhites •slacks j In the event of the share of black entrants into the profession being increased to 50%, a position of equal representation would be reached by 2043 when the last members of the present planning population exit the profession (Table 3). Figure 3 illustrates the outcome of a 2:1 black/white intake on the racial composition of the planning population. In this case equal black/white representation would be attained by the year 2023, i.e. two decades earlier than in the previous scenario (Table 3). 9 Badenhorst/Racial representation in the planning profession Figure 4: Racial shares (66% black entry per annum) 100 90 80 w 70 � 60 z 50 w 40 � 30 .... 20 10 0 1998 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043 YEAR I a Whites • Blacks I Figure 5: Racial shares (90% black entry per annum) 100 90 80 w 70 � 60 z 50 w 40 � w 30 .... 20 10 0 1998 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2043 YEAR j a Whites • Blacks I If the entry of blacks into the profession has advanced to 90% as from 1998, a position of equal representation between black and white planners would be attained by the year 2012. By 2043, nine out of 10 planners would be black, which would reflect the demographic composition of the nation by then (Table 3). By that time, members of the present planning population would have reached retirement age. 10 1999 Acta Structilia Vol 6 No 1 & 2 Conclusion One overarching conclusion to be drawn from the foregoing, is that the racial composition of the planning population in the country is not going to be changed overnight. Nor is there a quick-fix solution to the situation. There is indeed a long and arduous road ahead if a position of equal representation between blacks and whites in the profession is to be achieved. A time in future when the racial composition of the profession will reflect the demographics of the nation at large is indeed a lifetime away for the members of the present generation of planners if the present enrolment trend should continue. It is quite obvious that sustained efforts to set things right are required by all involved in charting the profession's future. References BADENHORST, M.S. 1998. Race and gender repre­ sentation in the town and regional planning profession in South Africa: Some scenarios. Paper presented at the Inter­ national Conference Once Upon a Planner's Day. Uni­ versity of Pretoria. Pretoria. BADENHORST, M.S. 1997. Questionnaire to town and regional planning depart­ ments at universities in South Africa. BADENHORST, M.S. 1995. The occupational profile of the town and regional planner in South Africa ( 1993). Town and Regional Planning, No 38. GIUDDICI, F. 1998. Registrar: South African Council for Town and Regional Planners. Personal enquiry. MULLER, J. 1998. Head: Department of Town and Regional Planning. University of the Witwaters­ rand. Johannesburg. Personal enquiry. 11