34 © Creative Commons With Attribution (CC-BY) Published by the UFS http://journals.ufs.ac.za/index.php/as Geraldine Kikwasi Dr Geraldine J. Kikwasi, Senior Lecturer, School of Architecture, Construction Economics and Management, Ardhi University, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Email: , ORCID: https://orcid. org/0000-0002-0157-69121 Nyamagere Gladys Sospeter Dr Nyamagere Gladys Sospeter,* Senior Lecturer, School of Architecture, Construction Economics and Management, Ardhi University, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Email: , ORCID: https://orcid. org/0000-0002-6938-7018 *Corresponding author. ISSN: 1023-0564 ▪ e-ISSN: 2415-0487 Received: April 2023 Peer reviewed and revised: May 2023 Published: June 2023 KEYWORDS: Construction, economic development, government expenditure, inflation, interest rate HOW TO CITE: Kikwasi, G.J. & Sospeter, N.G. 2023. The nexus between monetary and fiscal policies and construction output in Tanzania. Acta Structilia, 30(1), pp. 34-61. THE NEXUS BETWEEN MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES AND CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT IN TANZANIA RESEARCH ARTICLE1 DOI: https://doi.org/10.38140/as.v30i1.7266 ABSTRACT There is insufficient knowledge on the influence of monetary and fiscal policies elements on the construction sector output in Tanzania. Monetary and fiscal policies elements are paramount in decisions pertaining to project viability or feasibility. The purpose of this study is to determine the relationship of monetary and fiscal policies elements with the construction sector output in Tanzania. Accordingly, this study adopts a correlational research design to examine the extant relationship between various elements of fiscal and monetary policies and construction output. Time-series data was obtained from Tanzania National Bureau of Statistics and Bank of Tanzania, covering a period of twenty-three (23) years from 1998 to 2021. The data obtained was tested for stationarity, followed by correlation and regression analysis. Results reveal that construction output is negatively related to commercial bank’s weighted interest and inflation rates. On the other hand, construction output is positively related to exchange rate, government expenditure on construction, and total tax on product. Multiple regression analysis revealed similar results, with the exception of exchange rate which has turned out to be negatively related 1 DECLARATION: The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. Acta Structilia 2023 30(1): 34-61 http://journals.ufs.ac.za/index.php/as mailto:gkikwasi@yahoo.com mailto:gkikwasi@yahoo.com https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0157-69121 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0157-69121 mailto:nyamagere@yahoo.com mailto:nyamagere@yahoo.com https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6938-7018 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6938-7018 https://doi.org/10.38140/as.v30i1.7266 Kikwasi & Sospeter 2023 Acta Structilia 30(1): 34-61 35 to construction output. Nevertheless, the relationship of construction output and all elements of monetary and fiscal policies is not statistically significant. The study provides knowledge on the nexus between monetary and fiscal policies on the construction sector output within a previously unexplored Tanzanian context. This can help developers make informed decisions on investments in times of high or low inflation and interest rates, and during an upsurge of exchange rates. It also informs the public on how the government regulates the construction output by increasing or decreasing expenditure on construction. ABSTRAK Daar is onvoldoende kennis oor die invloed van monetêre en fiskale beleidselemente op die konstruksiesektor se uitset in Tanzanië. Monetêre en fiskale beleidselemente is deurslaggewend in besluite wat verband hou met projek lewensvatbaarheid of haalbaarheid. Die doel van hierdie studie is om die verwantskap van monetêre en fiskale beleidselemente met die konstruksiesektor se uitset in Tanzanië te bepaal. Gevolglik gebruik hierdie studie ‘n korrelasionele navorsingsontwerp om die bestaande verband tussen verskeie elemente van fiskale en monetêre beleid en konstruksie-uitset te ondersoek. Tydreeksdata is verkry van Tanzanië Nasionale Buro vir Statistiek en Bank van Tanzanië, wat ‘n tydperk van drie-en-twintig (23) jaar van 1998 tot 2021 dek. Die data is getoets vir stasionariteit, gevolg deur korrelasie- en regressie-analise. Resultate toon dat konstruksie-uitset negatief verband hou met kommersiële banke se geweegde rente- en inflasiekoerse. Aan die ander kant is konstruksie-uitset positief verwant aan wisselkoers, staatsbesteding aan konstruksie en totale belasting op produk. Meervoudige regressie-analise het soortgelyke resultate aan die lig gebring, met die uitsondering van wisselkoers wat negatief met konstruksie-uitset verband hou. Nietemin is die verband tussen konstruksie-uitset en alle elemente van monetêre en fiskale beleid nie statisties betekenisvol nie. Die studie verskaf kennis oor die verband tussen monetêre en fiskale beleid oor die konstruksiesektor se uitset binne ‘n voorheen onontginde Tanzaniese konteks. Dit kan ontwikkelaars help om ingeligte besluite oor beleggings te neem in tye van hoë of lae inflasie en rentekoerse, en tydens ‘n oplewing van wisselkoerse. Dit lig ook die publiek in oor hoe die regering die konstruksie-uitset reguleer deur uitgawes aan konstruksie te verhoog of te verminder. 1. INTRODUCTION The construction industry’s contribution to economic development in developing countries can be realised through constructed facilities. Over the years, the construction industry in Tanzania has maintained a steady contribution to the national economic growth. According to United Republic of Tanzania (URT) (2022: 2), the industry’s share to the gross domestic product (GDP) was 14.1% in 2020 and declined to 13.8% in 2021. Deloitte (2016: 5) predicted a growth in GDP of Tanzania at an average of 6.4% per year in 2016-2020, highlighting the significant contribution of the construction and service sectors towards achieving this feat. Similarly, in 2021, the URT (2022: 2) revealed the construction sector growth of 4.3%, which is a result of ongoing construction of classrooms, health centres, residential and commercial buildings, as well as construction and rehabilitation of roads, bridges, and airports. These projects take a long time before completion, during which changes in monetary and fiscal Kikwasi & Sospeter 2023 Acta Structilia 30(1): 34-61 36 policies elements are likely. Such changes are, in turn, expected to affect the attainment of project objectives. Therefore, fiscal, and monetary policies elements cannot be neglected when making decisions on investments in construction projects, as these elements play a vital role in decisions pertaining to project viability or feasibility. In Tanzania, as in many other countries, construction projects are mostly financed using borrowed funds that attract interest. The interest rates charged by financial institutions are not always stable to support the investment climate (Sospeter & Rwelamila, 2021: 328). For instance, between August 2015 and November 2015, the lending rates managed to remain stable at 16.1%, before rising to 16.28% in January 2016 (Deloitte, 2016: 6). Another important factor to note is that, in Tanzania, construction material prices are subjected to value added tax (VAT), which was introduced in 1997 and became operational in 1998. VAT was introduced to replace sales tax which was in operation since the 1970s. The government is a key player in the construction sector globally, as the construction procurement-related expenditure contributes significantly to the growth of the industry. Studies reveal an apparent relationship between construction output and economic development in developing economies (Crosthwaite, 2000: 620; Ruddock & Lopes, 2006: 717; Giang & Pheng, 2011: 117; Fulford, 2019: 785; Ruddock & Ruddock, 2019: 771). Likewise, monetary and fiscal policies elements exert considerable influence on the construction output in any country (Asamoah et al., 2020: 7). Whereas monetary policy elements include interest, inflation, and exchange rates, fiscal policy elements consist of taxation and government expenditure. Other studies reveal the influence of either monetary policy elements, fiscal policy elements, or both on economic growth/development. A few studies focus on the construction sector output and these include Mbusi, Mbiti and Wanyona (2015: 18) in Kenya; Ayodeji (2011: 5) in Nigeria, as well as Bickerton and Gruneberg (2013: 271) in the United Kingdom. Collectively, the studies focused on one or more policy elements. For instance, fiscal policy elements (Ayodeji, 2011: 5; Osinowo, 2015: 197), monetary policy elements (Kalu et al., 2015: 173; Makoye, Mlinga & Ndanshau, 2022) and monetary and fiscal policies (Ma & Fang, 2011: 165; Emori, Ogar & Nkamare, 2014: 224; Mbusi et al., 2015:19). The results of these studies are contradictory in their respective countries. However, there is insufficient knowledge on the influence of monetary and fiscal policy elements on the construction sector output in Tanzania. Each year, the Bank of Tanzania (BoT) sets forth the monetary policy objectives to be achieved. These form the basis for the country’s economic growth. These objectives are set to enhance the economic growth of the country, which calls for focused evaluation of every major sector of the economy. Construction is one of the major sectors that contribute significantly to the economic growth of Kikwasi & Sospeter 2023 Acta Structilia 30(1): 34-61 37 the country. The sector contribution is through construction output that is greatly affected by both fiscal and monetary elements of total tax on products, government expenditure on construction, inflation, interest rates, and exchange rate. The monetary policy objectives set each year by the Central Bank influence not only the performance of the sector, but also the investments and infrastructure development in the country. Insufficient knowledge of monetary and fiscal policy elements may lead to poor performance of the industry and may affect decision-making on investments and infrastructure development. Studies undertaken in Tanzania by Kyissima, Kossele and Abeid (2017) as well as Makoye et al. (2022) have not explored the effect of monetary policy objectives on the construction sector. This continues to create a missing link on how the monetary and fiscal policies elements independently affect the construction output. By itself, Tanzania lacks adequate information on the outcome of monetary policy objectives set by the BoT, particularly on the construction sector. This study seeks to fill that research gap in the Tanzanian context. 2. LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Construction sector output The construction output is the total constructed facilities delivered by the construction sector of any given economy within a given period (t), usually a year (Mbusi et al., 2015: 16). In that respect, countries invest in infrastructure which are products of the construction industry in the form of output. The production of new buildings and other structures in any given period adds to a country’s economic wealth, in the form of the built environment contributing to, and complementing its productive and social capital (Ruddock & Ruddock, 2019: 773). However, Fulford (2019: 788) observed that not all assets contributed to national wealth creation, as such contributions were dependent on their nature and use. Ruddock and Ruddock (2019: 773) opined that, when economies grow by attracting investments and as such investments in terms of construction output expand, countries move to higher income classification groups. This view is shared by Musarat, Alaloul and Liew (2021: 409), as well as by Crosthwaite (2000: 620), in that the share of construction sector spending in GDP first grows during less developed country (LDC) status, peaks during newly industrialising country (NIC) status, as they will require more constructed facilities, hence construction output, and then declines as countries move from NIC to advanced industrialised country (AIC) status. Ruddock and Lopes (2006: 718), Giang and Pheng (2011: 117), as well as Ansar et al. (2016: 362) presented varied views concerning the relationship between construction output and economic development. Ruddock and Kikwasi & Sospeter 2023 Acta Structilia 30(1): 34-61 38 Lopes (2006: 720) described the relationship as ‘Bon Curve’, wherein the share of construction in total output first goes up and then comes down with the economic development of individual nations. Giang and Pheng (2011: 118) revealed the significant relationship between the construction industry and economic growth in developing countries, but they cautioned that excessive expansion of the industry would lead to waste of national resources. Ansar et al. (2016: 387) concluded that investments in infrastructure do not typically lead to economic growth and that investing in underperforming projects instead leads to economic and financial fragility. These views challenge the earlier perceptions that construction output contributes positively to the nations’ economic growth. On the other hand, recent investments in infrastructure in Tanzania such as SGR, construction of TAZARA and Ubungo flyovers, Tanzanite bridge, and Stiegler’s Gorge Hydroelectric Power Station project aim to stimulate the country’s economic growth. This is held as true, as it is generally agreed that careful investment in infrastructure by developing countries will eventually translate to their economic development. This is also echoed by Ruddock and Ruddock (2019: 771), as well as by Sospeter and Rwelamila (2021: 326), in that a capital asset investment approach to sustainable infrastructure development requires careful planning of buildings and infrastructure for developing countries. 2.2 Monetary policy Monetary policies involve the use of interest rates and other monetary tools to manage macroeconomic variables such as inflation, the level of consumer spending, consumer confidence, exchange rate index, economic growth, and unemployment in an economy (Musarat et al., 2021: 410; UKEssays, 2018b). A monetary policy is a framework whereby the government, the central bank, or other regulatory authorities manage the provision of cash, accessibility to cash, and cost of cash within an economy (Kalu et al., 2015: 175). The monetary policy is designed to influence the level of money supply and the structure of interest rates depending on the prevailing economic conditions (Emori et al., 2014: 225). The monetary policy consists of actions taken by a nation’s central bank to control the money supply as well as interest rates, in order to achieve the desired macroeconomic policy objectives (Musarat et al., 2021: 410). It constitutes the major policy thrust of the government in realising various macroeconomic objectives (Emori et al., 2014: 225). Monetary policy objectives vary between countries at different times and under different economic conditions. According to Ruddock and Ruddock (2019: 773), monetary policies are predicated on the attainment of the following objectives: price stability, high employment, economic growth, as well as stability of financial markets and institutions. In Tanzania, the macroeconomic policy objectives for 2021/2022 were Kikwasi & Sospeter 2023 Acta Structilia 30(1): 34-61 39 achieving real GDP growth of 5% in 2021, attaining inflation with a target of 3%-5% in 2021/2022, and a budget deficit including grants of 3% of GDP in 2021/2022 (BoT, 2022: 4). Furthermore, the monetary policy has the following targets (BoT, 2022a: 5): • Annual growth of average reserve of money 9.9%; • Annual growth of extended broad money supply (M3) of 10%; • Annual growth of credit to the private sector credit of 10.6%, and • Maintaining foreign exchange reserve adequate to cover at least four months of imports. Central banks use several monetary tools to achieve monetary policy objectives. In an attempt to control money supply and interest rates, central banks usually use three major instruments, namely changing reserve requirements, changing discount rate, and open-market operations (Ruddock & Ruddock, 2019: 770). Ma and Fang (2011: 165) highlighted four main monetary policy tools applied by China Central Bank, namely open-market operations, cash reserve requirements, central bank loans, and interest rate. In the vast majority of developed countries, open-market operations are the main monetary policy tool of central banks’ throughput of currency, and regulating market liquidity, which helps central banks and designated securities dealers for foreign exchange trading, so as to achieve monetary policy objectives. Likewise, the BoT (2022b: 2) uses open-market operations in the market for government securities, as well as sale and purchase of foreign currency in the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market (IFEM), which are complemented by periodic adjustments in the pricing of standby facilities. The seemingly effective implementation of the monetary policy by the BoT has led to improved performance of some monetary policy elements. For instance, the inflation rate has slowed down from 16% in 2012 to 3.5% in 2018 (URT, 2022: 3). The overall lending rate softened to 17.34% at the end of June 2018 from 17.6% at the end of June 2017, while one-year lending rate declined to 17.61% from 18.45% (BoT, 2019: 2). However, the mean exchange rate has increased from 1,409 in 2012 to 2,242 in 2018 Tanzania shillings per 1 US$ (URT, 2019: 2). 2.3 Fiscal policy Fiscal policies involve the use of modifications in taxation and government spending to influence the level of planned expenditure in an economy and thus, the level of economic growth (Bickerton & Gruneberg, 2013: 270; Musarat et al., 2021: 410; UKEssays, 2018b). Fiscal policy can be described as the deliberate manipulation of government income and expenditure to achieve desired economic and social objectives (Ayodeji, 2011: 2). Smith Kikwasi & Sospeter 2023 Acta Structilia 30(1): 34-61 40 (1991) as well as Sospeter, Rwelamila and Gimbi (2020: 772) explained that fiscal policy is the intentional use of the government’s expenditure and taxation strategies to influence economic activities. According to Amadeo (2018: 27), there are two types of fiscal policies, namely expansionary, which aims to boost the financial system and generate more growth in the economy, and contractionary, which aims to slow down economic growth. Expansionary fiscal policy involves a net increase in government spending (G>T) through rises in government spending, a fall in taxation revenue, or a combination of the two (Ayodeji, 2011: 3). Contractionary fiscal policy occurs when net government spending is reduced either through higher taxation revenue (G [Accessed: 21 March 2022]. Ansar, A., Flyvbjerg, B., Budzier, A. & Lunn, D. 2016. Does infrastructure investment lead to economic growth or economic fragility? Evidence from China. 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