Advances in Social Science and Culture ISSN 2640-9682 (Print) ISSN 2640-9674 (Online) Vol. 2, No. 3, 2020 www.scholink.org/ojs/index.php/assc 1 Original Paper Challenges Ahead in 2021 & 2022 Dr. Marc LUYCKX1* 1 Former Member of the “Forward Studies Unit” of the European Commission, Brussels, Belgium * Dr. Marc LUYCKX, Former Member of the “Forward Studies Unit” of the European Commission, Brussels, Belgium Received: May 20, 2020 Accepted: June 1, 2020 Online Published: June 4, 2020 doi:10.22158/assc.v2n3p1 URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.22158/assc.v2n3p1 1. A Successful Shock Strategy: The Crisis Will Also Be Economic Noami Klein wrote in 2008, The shock doctrine (Note 1). She explains that this organized political and economic shock manages to astound the population. And it allows politicians to pass authoritarian laws, under the pretext of protecting the frightened population. In a very recent video (Note 2) she explains also that this politic and economic Shock could also produce a positive world shift to a new world paradigm. This will be the theme of our reflection. Our hypothesis is that we are experiencing an admirably well-organized “strategy of shock”. It has indeed succeeded in stopping the economy of 4 billion citizens on earth. A remarkable achievement. And so we are probably experiencing only the first phase presented as a Pandemic. This Shock strategy has been openly presented in Davos in 2020. Cool. And the coming phase could be an economic crisis of very great magnitude. 1.1 Possible Major Economic Crisis in 2020 (or 2021) There is indeed a 40% chance that a major economic crisis will affect the United States and Europe, but also the rest of the world in different ways. And this in the months or years to come. The IMF has been warning us since 2018. 1) Currency crash (strong but silent devaluation of the $ and €. That is to say a loss of 25% or more of the purchasing power of citizens in a few days). 2) Stock market crash, and thus a major crisis in the stock market in US and EU. 3) And bank crash. 30% of the banks in the US and Europe are in danger. The whole economic system could collapse. www.scholink.org/ojs/index.php/assc Advances in Social Science and Culture Vol. 2, No. 3, 2020 2 Published by SCHOLINK INC. 1.2 Possible Bankruptcy of 30% of EU and US Banks and “BAIL-IN” (Citizen’s Theft) The consulting firm Price Waterhouse Cooper is said to have published a report (Note 3) indicating that 30% of European banks could fail if there is too much financial turmoil. The bank which would seem to be the most in danger in Europe would be the “Deutsche Bank” which is weighed down with numerous fraudulent credits, that it cannot get rid of. And a domino effect could bring many European banks to their knees. However, in our countries and at European level, the law authorizes banks to apply the “Bail-in”. Bail- in has already been practised in Cyprus. The curtains of the banks closed one day. And the next day the banks reopened, and the citizens who had €500,000 or more in their account realized that the bank had pumped out €400,000, since European and national law only guarantees €100,000 per account in the event of a banking crisis. For SMEs that have their cash flow and assets in the bank, this would mean bankruptcy and thus massive unemployment. 1.3 Bankruptcies of Many Companies, Especially SMEs It is likely that many companies will disappear after containment. Especially SMEs, which are the main economic fabric of our European economies and the largest provider of jobs. 1.4 Potential Unemployment for 40% of Citizens We could therefore have an exceptionally high level of unemployment of 30 to 40% in Europe and the USA. It should also be added that the political world does not dare to tell the truth about post-industrial employment. There will not be jobs for everyone in the intangible economy. This truth radically changes the whole policy of the “Employment Agencies” which are based on the (industrial) assumption that it is possible for everyone to find a job. This “industrial” world is disappearing. Hence the crucial importance of the debate on Universal and Social Income. (See 2nd part) 1.5 Death of Many Pyramidal Structures These moments of crisis will look more like a global shift of the West. And there is a risk of collapse for many of the pyramid structures that no longer function properly in today’s world. They do not manage to meet the requirements of transparency, sustainability, efficiency in collective intelligence, and therefore meaning. They die because they no longer make sense. 1.6 Catastrophic Situation in the Third World Needless to say, this economic and financial shock would have a very negative impact on poor people in the Third World. Yet this population, even though it has decreased, is still several billion citizens. 1.7 Conclusion the Collapsologists Are Right … in Part Yes, the collapsologists (Note 4) are right, at least in part. A major collapse of the Western economy and civilization is one possible scenario. But at the same time, we have to understand that it is at the moment when the industrial plate will collapse that we will suddenly discover a new tectonic plate. A new global economic and social logic that already exists and works, even if it is not highlighted in the www.scholink.org/ojs/index.php/assc Advances in Social Science and Culture Vol. 2, No. 3, 2020 3 Published by SCHOLINK INC. official media. 2. Part the New Tectonic Plate: The Sustainable and Just Civilization 2.1 Universal Social Income A civil war of “Yellow Vests” fighting for food in front of supermarkets, is one possible scenario. Perhaps the only solution for Western governments will be to quickly establish a universal social income system, which would be modulated according to income. If you earn more than xxxx € per month you don’t need it. Governments can also arrange for the social income of the rich to be recovered by the tax authorities. The modalities are to be perfected gradually. But it should also be noted that the very concept of Universal Income implies an important redefinition of citizenship, which is no longer defined by employment, as in the industrial era, but by the intrinsic dignity of every citizen. A new societal paradigm will have to be put in place. The basic income must be conceived on the new “post-industrial” tectonic plate. 2.2 Monetary Innovations for Businesses and Citizens In Switzerland in 1928, a hundred years ago, the big companies Winterthur (insurance) Migros (food) and others decided to create a new inter-company currency, which they called the “WIR” (Note 5). This currency enabled them to get through the financial crisis of 1929 without too much damage. It is therefore important that a complementary European currency be created quickly to serve businesses. But it will also be necessary to create citizens’ monetary systems. Complementary social currencies will also be very important as a social binder. Cities in transition such as TOTNES have understood this. And there are hundreds of such currencies in the EU and the USA. An important source of information in this monetary field can be found in the Report of the Club of Rome to the European Parliament in 2012 written by Bernard Lietaer (Note 6). 2.3 The Discovery That the Circular Economy Is already Working ... for a Long Time 2.3.1 Some Ideas about the Circular Economy. The Center of the New Narrative The center of this new narrative is that - The dominant values are no longer linked to the axioms of “Homo Economicus industrialis”. This homo economics was defined as selfish. He does not care about social solidarity, neither the environmental or future issues. For the invisible hand of the market will transform the sum of these egoisms into a balanced market. - The new dominant values, the new “Homo Economicus Immaterialis”, behaves in a spirit of solidarity and tries to respect and even regenerate the environment. He promotes wiser and more mature values (A. Piet). He creates a new narrative. These are new axioms that are at the heart of the new economy. - The New Creation of Economic Value. The new creation of value consists in applying knowledge to knowledge to create knowledge (Note 7) (examples are: Facebook, AirB & B, Uber, Amazon, Apple, etc.). This means that the working tool is no longer the factory, but the human being who creates new www.scholink.org/ojs/index.php/assc Advances in Social Science and Culture Vol. 2, No. 3, 2020 4 Published by SCHOLINK INC. knowledge with his intelligence, intuition body and soul. This is a new definition of the work tool. Management thus becomes humanistic by obligation, even if many people try to cheat. The main assets become mostly immaterial. So it is the set of measuring instruments that must be totally rethought (intangible assets). - New concept of technology As Steve JOBS the founder of Apple said, technology is there to be “Human Friendly and beautiful”. This is exactly the opposite of industrial logic where it is the machine that dominates the human. This is why the “Singularity University” created by R. Kurzweil (Note 8) in Palo Alto (California) is already obsolete, because it remained stuck in the materialist industrial paradigm. 2.4 The Best and only Report from a EU Government (FR) At European level, after the brilliant analysis by A. Gutterres (Note 9) then Prime Minister of Portugal, who devised the European Lisbon Strategy in 2000, I know of only one government report that describes the change of economic paradigm and the new circular and immaterial economic logic. It was the report commissioned by Ségolène Royal, then French Minister for the Environment, and written by Corinne Lepage, in 2015 (Note 10). Unfortunately, it has disappeared from the French Ministry of the Environment website. Decidedly nobody is a prophet in his own country! Here is part of the English summary of the report given on p. 12: “...The new economy is based on a complete paradigm shift, in which the digital makes the market more productive, more competitive, more based on values of exchange and sharing, of reappropriation of the environment and the local economy.” “... Social capital is as vital as financial capital, access is as important as ownership, sustainability replaces consumerism, cooperation is as crucial as competition, and shareable value in collaborative communities increasingly complements exchange value in the capitalist market” (Rifkin). “We have everything to succeed. Our country can point to hundreds of success stories, led by citizens, companies (especially SMEs) and territories that have perfectly analyzed the New World and how to fit into it...” We can do much better, that is to say change scale and make the transition to this new economy a project for society in its own right, capable of bringing together, well beyond partisan divisions, and in the wake of all the pioneers, a very large number of players who are only too eager to support it. This exceptional report also analyses the institutional obstacles preventing this new economy from developing beyond the regional level. However, it is already working very well in some regions, for example in Aquitaine Region (F). 2.5 A Book That Dares to Rethink the Basic Axioms of the World Economy: Aurélie PIET I don’t know many books that dare to rethink the basic axioms of the world economy. A young economist from Bordeaux, Aurélie PIET (Note 10) has brilliantly succeeded in this challenge. And she describes the many economists, including some Nobel Prize winners, who are doing this work of rethinking in depth. But it is Ms. Piet who has the most global and credible vision, because she www.scholink.org/ojs/index.php/assc Advances in Social Science and Culture Vol. 2, No. 3, 2020 5 Published by SCHOLINK INC. intelligently links the rethinking and re-creation of the economy to that of our post-industrial and trans modern civilization. She maps out a path of positive transformation of the global economy, even if we are bombarded with negative scenarios in the media. 2.6 The New Liberated Enterprises (Note 11) While many companies will disappear in the coming years, others are being created or transformed in depth. With the industrial society also disappears the vision of the company as a machine, as mechanical, in which the human being is only a cog. And we suddenly “discover” that the company is made up of humans that we can invite to create in “collective intelligence” (Note 12). We change the “narrative” of the company. And the new narrative is based on the new dominant values (of the new world/paradigm). - Sustainability and environmental restoration - Social solidarity at local, national, European and global level. - The active and creative participation of citizens in collective intelligence. - Profit is an important consequence that reveals that everything is OK. 2.7 The Shock as an Exceptional Opportunity for Positive Change We have talked about the exceptional success of the current shock strategy. But this clash on our Western and global world is also an exceptional opportunity for in-depth change. Perhaps indeed, that it is only at such times that the structures of business and politics can be changed in depth and very positively. 2.8 The New Corporate Mission This also means that companies have a new mission. They are potentially important players in the construction of this New World economy. This explains the success of training initiatives such as “Ticket For Change” in Paris. Companies can be an important element in the positive and constructive evolution of humanity in the 21st century. 2.9 The Central Role of Culture as the Indispensable Nourishment of Human Creativity in the New Intangible Economy Our governments are reluctant to invest massively to “save” the cultural world, because they are unfortunately still stuck with the old industrial, materialistic, and mechanistic vision, in which culture is the icing on the cake...if all goes well. But in the immaterial society where human creativity is the main working tool, culture becomes absolutely indispensable because it feeds human creativity. Richard Florida (Note 13) already explained 20 years ago how culture has profoundly changed its role in the new economy of human creativity. It will therefore be crucial for enlightened governments to give top priority to funding and empowering all cultural activity. This is more important than “saving” moribund airlines. www.scholink.org/ojs/index.php/assc Advances in Social Science and Culture Vol. 2, No. 3, 2020 6 Published by SCHOLINK INC. 3. Conclusion: The New Civilization Is Approaching: Two Scenarios I believe that in the exceptional circumstances we are experiencing, two scenarios are possible. 3.1 First Scenario Control Chinese Way The first scenario would be a civilization of increasingly total but soft control of the world citizens. And this scenario was very well announced by Huxley (Note 14) and Orwell (Note 15). Where would we go in this first scenario? And here, the most exemplary contemporary model is the current Chinese model, which controls each citizen electronically (facial control) and by giving him a red, yellow or green rating on his mobile phone. Only the green signal makes it possible to travel and make certain purchases of loans and investments. The recent issue (22 April 2020) on “ARTE” television described it well (Note 16). And this control regime does not hesitate to organize the imprisonment of millions of Uighur citizens, just because they are Muslims. And they are locked up in prison-factories where they work in forced labor for our western multinationals. This is very cheap labor. 3.2 The Second Scenario Is a Higher Level of Consciousness of the World Citizens The second scenario is rooted in the progressive discovery by the citizens of the world that this world of Orwellian control has, in fact, no vision of a sustainable future for Humanity, except perhaps to make a few billion “excess” humans disappear. But any political project without a vision of the future is doomed to die, as it was the case for the powerful Roman Empire. And it is therefore by standing together, and by promoting and implementing a new vision of the future symbolized by new values of life, sustainability, solidarity, justice and freedom, that Humanity will be able to create a new civilization that is more adult, more sustainable, more ethical and more spiritual. And some sociologists like Paul Ray (Note 17) have put forward the hypothesis that “cultural creatives” are already announcing the values of tomorrow’s civilization. There could be 150 millions in Europe, 75 millions in USA, and between one and two billion of them on our planet. This is important. And those numbers allow us to envisage a situation of shift to a new paradigm. And the circular economy, with the change of vision it promotes, is one of the factors that encourages positive evolution, and the raising of our level of consciousness. This new civilization of a higher level was announced by Jesus (the Kingdom of Heaven), by Teilhard de Chardin (The Noosphere), and by Aurobindo and the Mother in India in 1950. It is the second scenario that will irresistibly and smoothly prevail, helped perhaps by powerful spiritual forces. It is allowed to hope. www.scholink.org/ojs/index.php/assc Advances in Social Science and Culture Vol. 2, No. 3, 2020 7 Published by SCHOLINK INC. Notes Note 1. Naomi KLEIN The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism 2008. Note 2. Naomi Klein, video Coronavirus capitalism https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFqNAEx1lm4 Note 3. I Have not found this report. But there is an interesting PWC report on Canadian Banks in 2020. Note 4. Pablo SERVIGNE & Raphaël STEVENS Comment tout peut s’effondrer (How everything could collapse) 2015 Note 5. Wir means “US” in English. Note 6. Bernard LIETAER Money and Sustainability: The Missing Link 2012 Note 7. This definition was invented by Peter DRUCKER in Post Capitalist society 1993. Note 8. Ray KURZWEIL Singularity is near. When Humans transcend biology. 2005. Note 9. See Summary in English p. 12. https://www.actu-environnement.com/media/pdf/news- 24737-rapport-economie-verte-Corinne-Lepage.pdf Note 10. Aurélie PIET Quand l’Homo economicus saute à l’élastiques sans élastique PLON, Paris 2019. English edition in preparation. See her site (English in preparation) : http://aurelie-piet.fr/ Note 11. Frédéric LALOUX Reinventing Organizations 2015. Note 12. Chantal NEVE-HANQUET et Agathe CRESPEL Facilitating Collective Intelligence: A Handbook for Trainers, Coaches, Consultants and Leaders 2019 Note 13. Richard FLORIDA The rise of the cultural Class and how it’s transforming Work, Leisure, Community & everyday Life. 2002. Note 14. Aldous HUXLEY Brave New World 2006 Note 15. Georges ORWELL «1984» Note 16. ARTE “Seven Billions of suspects”. April 22, 2020. On Youtube. Note 17. Paul H. RAY & Sherry ANDERSON The cultural creatives: When 50 million people are changing the world 2000. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFqNAEx1lm4 https://www.actu-environnement.com/media/pdf/news-24737-rapport-economie-verte-Corinne-Lepage.pdf https://www.actu-environnement.com/media/pdf/news-24737-rapport-economie-verte-Corinne-Lepage.pdf https://www.actu-environnement.com/media/pdf/news-24737-rapport-economie-verte-Corinne-Lepage.pdf http://aurelie-piet.fr/ https://www.amazon.fr/Facilitating-Collective-Intelligence-Handbook-Consultants/dp/0367209667/ref=sr_1_3?__mk_fr_FR=%C3%85M%C3%85%C5%BD%C3%95%C3%91&dchild=1&keywords=collective+intelligence&qid=1588700433&s=english-books&sr=1-3 https://www.amazon.fr/Facilitating-Collective-Intelligence-Handbook-Consultants/dp/0367209667/ref=sr_1_3?__mk_fr_FR=%C3%85M%C3%85%C5%BD%C3%95%C3%91&dchild=1&keywords=collective+intelligence&qid=1588700433&s=english-books&sr=1-3