AN OPTIMAL PORTFOLIO COMPARISON OF SYARIAH STOCKS BEFORE AND AFTER THE WEAKENING OF THE 2015 INDONESIAN ECONOMY 28 AN OPTIMAL PORTFOLIO COMPARISON OF SYARIAH STOCKS BEFORE AND AFTER THE WEAKENING OF THE 2015 INDONESIAN ECONOMY Ahmad Ridho Darmawan31*1 1 Universitas Islam Negeri Walisongo, Semarang, Indonesia Abstract This paper contains the results of a comparative study of Islamic stock portfolios between the years of 2014-2016. In 2015, Indonesia's economic growth experienced the lowest weakening in the past 6 years. The Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) on 2014 experienced an uptrend, in 2015 it rebounded to a downtrend, and in 2016 an uptrend is experienced again. The purpose of this study was to compare the performance of Islamic stock portfolios before, during and after the weakening of the Indonesian economy and to find the impact of the optimal portfolio strategies in conditions of fluctuating economic growth performance. The population are all the Islamic stocks that are listed on JII in every period during the years of 2013 - 2016. The sample used the Purposive Sampling method, the portfolio performance assessment used the Treynor index and analyzed the data using the Paired-sample T-Test. The results of the study are that (H1) was rejected with a significance value of 0.699> 0.05, (H2) was rejected with a significance value of 0.910> 0.05 and (H3) was rejected with a significance value of 0.797 <0.05. In conclusion, all the hypotheses (H1, H2, H3) are rejected and H0 is accepted. Based on these results, the use of the optimal portfolio method in investment is able to minimize the risks, although it doesn’t eliminate the risk. Keywords: Jakarta Islamic Index, Stock Portofolio, Stock Return, Stock Risk 1. INTRODUCTION In the year 2015 the growth of Indonesia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is as large as 4.87% which became the lowest in the last 6 years. This condition is the first GDP growth under 5% since the year 2010. Figure 1 Indonesia GDP Growth 2009-2016 (Percent) Source: Secondary data from the Central Body of Statistics which was processed by the Data Center and Information System, Ministry of Trade * Corresponding author. Email address: ahmadrdy17@gmail.com 4.38% 6.10% 6.17% 6.03% 5.56% 5.01% 4.88% 5.02% 4.00% 4.50% 5.00% 5.50% 6.00% 6.50% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 AFEBI Islamic Finance and Economic Review (AIFER) Vol.03 No.01, June 2018 29 Figure 2 Monthly Growth of Combined Figure 3 Monthly Growth of Stock Price Index Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) December 2013-December 2016 December 2013-December 2016 Source : IHSG secondary data Source: JII Secondary data In line with the GDP growth, the Combined Stock Price Index and Jakarta Islamic Index in the monthly growth of the December 2013-December 2016 period showed the same performance. Based on the stock index data, the Combined Stock Price Index and the Jakarta Islamic Index showed the macroeconomic condition that provides performance influence in general. Yet it does not mean the JII performance development illustrates the performance of each stock in the listing at that period as the same with the index performance. For example, the return that is shown by the stock of AALI, ADRO and AKRA which are always on the listing for the years of 2014-2016. Table 1 Return Stock of AALI, ADRO, AKRA in the Closing of 2014-2016 Stock Code Year. 2014 Year. 2015 Year. 2016 AALI -3% -35% +11% ADRO -4% -50,4% +229% AKRA -5,8% +74,15% -16,4% Source : Secondary Data of AALI, ADRO, AKRA Return Stocks 2013-2016 which are already processed Table 1 shows the price fluctuation of some stock which are in the JII list, yet there is an incompatibility with the JII value trend in some stock. In other words the return of each stock does does not always follow the performance trend and the formed stock index, and it shows a development that is not positive or negative. The conclusion is that although investment in stocks can be appropriate with the syariah principle, Stock investment is still an economic business investment which has risks and no guarantee of return inside it. In the investment process, determining strategy, forming and managing a portfolio is considered adequately important, A portfolio is defined as a series of combinations of several assets which are invested by investors. The forming of a portfolio is meant so that investors implement diversification in asset selections for optimizing the profit expectation and minimize risk chances with a logical reason and analysis, so the speculation practice is avoided. The modern portfolio approach was first introduced by Harry M. Markowitz. The portfolio theory that was introduced by Markowitz assumed that investors make their investment decisions based on the expected return and portfolio risk. 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 D e c- 1 3 A p r- 1 4 A u g -1 4 D e c- 1 4 A p r- 1 5 A u g -1 5 D e c- 1 5 A p r- 1 6 A u g -1 6 D e c- 1 6 IHSG (Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan) IHSG 550 600 650 700 750 800 D e c- 1 3 A p r- 1 4 A u g -1 4 D e c- 1 4 A p r- 1 5 A u g -1 5 D e c- 1 5 A p r- 1 6 A u g -1 6 D e c- 1 6 JII (Jakarta Islamic Index) JII AN OPTIMAL PORTFOLIO COMPARISON OF SYARIAH STOCKS BEFORE AND AFTER THE WEAKENING OF THE 2015 INDONESIAN ECONOMY 30 The optimal portfolio other than inputting assets in stock form with the highest profit and lowest risk, also considers the proportion and allocation of funds in the portfolio forming assets. The most important matter in the forming of the syariah stock optimal portfolio based on the JII is the meaning that listed stocks in JII which are the portfolio forming objects are 30 of the most liquidable syariah stocks and continue to fluctuate and recorded in the Syariah Effect List. Although each stock has different risks and returns, the economic phenomenon in Indonesia very much influences the performance or the JII index value. Especially in 2015 where the Indonesian and global GDP conditions experienced the lowest growth in the last 6 years. Although not all the stock are impacted by JII performance. So this shows the urgency about the importance if portfolio performance assessment of syariah stock in the periods before, in and after the Indonesian economic weakening in 2015. 2. LITERATURE REVIEW Investment In the Al-Qur’an Surah Al-Hasyr verse 18 Allah stated: َٱَّللَّ َخَ يَ َإِنَّ ٱتَّقُواْٱَّللَّ َۚ َو ٖۖ ۡتَِلغ د اَق دَّم ۡلت نُظۡرَن ۡفٞسَمَّ و َ نُوْاَٱتَّقُوْاٱَّللَّ َء ام أ يُّه اٱلَِّذين ٰ َٰ لُون اَت ۡعم َبِم ١٨ََِبيُرُۢ Meaning: O who believe, follow Allah and each self should be attentive to what they do for tommorrow (the afterlife); and follow Allah, truly Allah is the All Knowing of what you do In that verse, Allah orders all believers to oblige to follow Allah and the attitude of the followers is that every believer should be attentive to what they do for tommorrow. The emphasis of this verse, is that for every believer, one of the forms of following Allah is by preparing the life for tommorrow (investment). So indirectly, a form of belief and following for every muslim is investing with the intention because of Allah, to strengthen their belief. Investment itself is based on the word invest meaning to plant. Donald E. Fischer and Ronald J. Jordan in their book Security Analysis and Portfolio Management, defined that an investment is a commitment of funds made in the expectation of some positive rate of return”. Jack Clark Francis, in his book Investment : Analysis and Management, defined that: “an investment is a commitment of money that is expected to generate of additional money” Investment is a process of managing assets which are able to provide results in the future. So it can be concluded, investment is a commitment in allocating an asset in the form of money or other resources with the expectation an consideration to obtain a positive result in the future. The investment activity if observed from the object is divided into two objects, which are investment in real assets (assets in physical form such as land, buildings and the like) and investment in monetary assets (assets in the form of securities (effects) such as syariah bonds, syariah stock and other securities), Syariah Stock Stock is a proof of the company assets that issue the stock. While in the syariah principle, the addition of capital is implemented in companies that do not follow the syariah principle such as gambling, usury, producing forbidden goods. Generally according to the bill right there are two types of stock, common stock and preferred stock. Common stock are the most plentiful AFEBI Islamic Finance and Economic Review (AIFER) Vol.03 No.01, June 2018 31 securities and are spreaded in the trade. While what is named as preferred stock is because the holder has special rights above usual stockholders, in certain matters that are agreed in the stock emission. This privilege is different between one emmitance and other emmitances which are the agreement results between investors or stockholders with emmitance. Return Stock Basically there are 2 results (returns) in stock investment among others: a. Divident A divident is profit sharing that companies provide to investors and is from the profit that the company produces. b. Capital Gain Capital Gain is the difference between the selling price and buying price of stock and cash divident which is obtained from emmitance because companies obtain profit, this gain is formed with the presence of stock trade activities in the secondary market.l Stock Risk Risk is also defined as a probability of the occurrence of loss which investors will experience or an uncertainity of the return which will be obtained in the future. So, risk is defined as a chance that an unwanted occasion will occur. In the stock investment context in the capital market, risk can be divided into two types which are: a. Systematic risk A systematic risk as a risk which cannot be eliminated by diversification, because the fluctuation of this risk is influenced by macroeconomic factors which are able to be influenced by macroeconomic factors that can influence the market as a whole. Such as the change of interest levels, foreign exchange rates, government policies and others.( b. Unsystematic risk An unsystematic risk is a risk that can be eliminated by diversification, because this risk is only present in one company or certain industries such as the capital structure factor, Asset structure, liquidity levels, profit levels and others. Single Index Model Portfolio The single index model portfolio is a simplification of the index model developed by Markowitz. Developed by William F. Sharpe in 1963, it explains the relation between returns from each asset in the market index return. The single index model divides the return from an effect into two primary components which are: 1. The ereturn component related with company uniqueness: symbolized with αi; 2. The return component related with the market; symbolized with βi . Rm. Primarily, the steps implemented for forming a portfolio are a. Counting the stock return level (Ri) and expected return (E(Ri)); AN OPTIMAL PORTFOLIO COMPARISON OF SYARIAH STOCKS BEFORE AND AFTER THE WEAKENING OF THE 2015 INDONESIAN ECONOMY 32 b. Counting the market return index (Rm), alpha (αi) and beta (βi); c. Counting the deviation standard and residual variant (unsystematic risk); d. Counting the excess return to beta (ERB) e. Counting the cut-offpoint (C*) f. Counting the portion of each stock g. Counting the expected return portfolio h. Counting the portfolio risk by determining the variant size of the portfolio. The forming of the optimal portfolio using the single index model is determined from the excess return to beta (ERB) from a positive effect then compared with the cut-offpoint value (C*) the effect that has an ERB is larger or the same with C* so it will be in the optimal portfolio candidate with the single index method. Risk Adjusted Performance This concept is based on the Capital Market Theory which is a portfolio performance measurment concept pioneered by William Sharpe, Treynor, and Michael Jensen with the term of composite (risk-adjusted) meeasure of portofolio performance. Treynor Index The Treynor Index is a measure of portfolio performance developed by Jack Treynor (1965) and this index is often also called the reward to volatility ratio (RVOR). The portfolio performance in the Treynor Index is observed by connecting the return portfolio level with the risk size from the portfolio. The assumption is that the portfolio is already diversified well so the risk considered relevant is the systematic risk (market risk) measured with beta. Treynor (Tp) = Rp-Rf (1) βp Previous Research Some previous research which support and even almost similar, from the methodical and the research object, for becoming reference materials as sources of reference and a comparison in this research. Some of the previous research are among others: 1. Agustin Sulistyorini (2009) in her thesis titled “Analisis Kinerja Portofolio Saham dengan Metode Sharpe, Treynor, dan Jensen (Saham LQ45 di Bursa Efek Indonesia Tahun 2003-2007)”, stated that there is no significant difference between testing with the sharpe, treynor and jensen methods. Where H0 in this research is accepted, which is in the absence of a difference of LQ45 stock portfolio which was evaluated by usingthe Sharpe, Treynor and Jensen methods. In this research the writer implemented research in the form of comparing evaluation results from the three methods by a difference testing method using the one way of variance by rank with Kruskal-Wallish. The result formed a value of =1.906 with a probability of 0.386. So that result is known from the test probability which is ≥ 0.05 and a count of