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Scholars
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African Journal of Agricultural Marketing ISSN 2375-1061 Vol. 7 (1), pp. 001-012, January, 2019. Available online at 
www.internationalscholarsjournals.org © International Scholars Journals 

 

Author(s)                                           Author(s) retain the copyright of this article. 
 
 

 

Full Length Research Paper 

 

Exploration of food security situation in the Nile 
basin region 

 
John Omiti1*, Hellen Ommeh-Natu2 Lydia Ndirangu1, Nancy Laibuni1 and Nicholas Waiyaki3 

 
1
Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis (KIPPRA), P. O. Box 56445–00200, Nairobi, Kenya. 

2
Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), Entebbe, Uganda. 

3
Department of Economics, Kenyatta University, Nairobi, Kenya. 

 
Accepted 16 November, 2018 

 
The top economic development challenges in the Nile Basin region are food insecurity, poor infrastructure, chronic 
poverty and political instability. While these issues are interrelated, food security assumes a greater dimension at 
both national and regional levels. Hence, an eclectic approach is used to underscore food security indicators in River 
Nile basin. Food security is a multidimensional conceptualization of food availability, accessibility and utilization to 
sustain a healthy and productive life at an individual, household, national and regional levels, at all times. Using 
statistics from the World Bank, IFPRI, FAOSTAT, FAO/AGL-TERRASTAT and other studies in the basin, the study 
reviews food security situation and compares the main causes of food insecurity amongst nine Nile Basin countries. 
The study found that most countries in the Nile basin region are unable to produce enough food for their population, 
thus, there is high child mortality and a high proportion of people who cannot meet their energy (calorie) 
requirements. While food markets play a critical role in ensuring that food is distributed according to forces of supply 
and demand, they are generally weak, thin and inefficient in most Nile basin countries. As a result, there is limited 
intra-regional agricultural trade. The study recommends a paradigm shift in technology for the Nile basin agriculture 
towards people-centered and pro-poor approaches to improve food production, agro-processing and regional trade. 
To boost food production will require effective technologies for example, certified seed and fertilizer, that are adapted 
to local conditions and realities, expansion of irrigated agriculture, reduction of post-harvest losses, improved 
infrastructure (for example, storage), innovations that promote value addition (agribusiness) and expansion of intra-
regional agricultural trade. Both the public and private sectors in the region need to encourage development of 
technological, infrastructural, and marketing innovations and provide the necessary economic infrastructure and 
policy commitments to improve food security in the Nile basin. 

 

Key words: Nile basin, food insecurity, production, trade, policy. 
 
 
INTRODUCTION 

 
The concept of food security includes both physical and 
economic access to food that meets people's dietary 
needs as well as their food preferences at both 
household and individual level, and is therefore 
concerned with continuous and assured access to food 
(NEPAD, 2009; FAO, 1996). Per capita availability of  
 
 

 
*Corresponding author. E-mail: jmomiti@kippra.or.ke or 
jmomiti@gmail.com 

 
 
 
 

 
food is principally influenced by factors that determine 
levels of food supply and demand such as factors of 
production (land, labour and capital), population growth, 
price levels, average levels of disposable income and 
tastes and preferences (NEPAD, 2009; FAO, 1996). 
Many countries in the Nile basin region are structurally 
unable to escape from food insecurity because there is 
inadequate food supply resulting from a complex mix of 
factors including; unstable social and political 
environments, macroeconomic imbalances in trade, 
natural resource constraints, natural disasters for 

file:///C:\Users\user\Documents\REPUBLICATION\AGRICULTURAL%20SCIENCES\AppData\Local\Temp\www.internationalscholarsjournals.org


 
 
 

 

example drought, floods, pests (e.g. locusts), diseases 
and the absence of good governance (Pingali et al., 
2006; Smith et al., 2000; Nile Basin Initiative, 1998). 
When domestic production falls short of fulfilling national 
food demand, countries often resort to commercial food 
imports or humanitarian assistance. While per capita food 
production indicates the ability of a country to use 
domestic production to feed its population, the ratio of 
food imports to total exports provides an indication of the 
ability of a country to finance its food imports from export 
revenue. Some of these factors are highlighted in Table 
1.  

External factors make the status of food insecurity in 
the Nile Basin even grimmer. Such factors include rise in 
global food prices (as has been periodically witnessed 
since 2008), debt burden, limited trade, lack of adequate 
foreign exchange and the long-term risks associated with 
climate change (IFPRI, 2002; Appelgren et al., 2000). 
This is further aggravated by communicable human and 
animal diseases, and pest problems that often weaken 
the already delicate livelihoods for many households in 
the Nile basin. Poor infrastructure, high transport cost, 
limited investments in irrigation, pricing and marketing 
polices, expensive and inappropriate technologies have 
historically hampered efforts to increase food production 
and intra-regional trade in the Nile basin countries 
(NEPAD, 2009; Omiti et al., 2008; Anderson, 1992; 
Carter and Weibe, 1990). Considering the population 
growth and rapid urbanization, the demand for food will 
grow dramatically in coming decades (Delgado et al., 
1999). Facilitating expansion of domestic and regional 
markets will be critical in efforts that are aimed at 
stimulating agricultural production, broad-based income 
growth and poverty reduction (United Nations, 2010; 
Berrett et al., 2005; Sen, 1981).  

Since the launch of the New Partnership for Africa’s 
Development (NEPAD) in 2000, a Comprehensive Africa 
Development Programme (CAADP) has been initiated, 
whose third pillar aims to increase food supply and 
reduce hunger in Africa by raising productivity and 
improving responses to food emergencies. This initiative 
will provide avenues for investments in improving domes-
tic production and marketing, trade and productivity 
(NEPAD, 2009). With perhaps the exception of Egypt, the 
Nile basin countries have a predominant common feature 
of food insecurity which is mainly due to low and 
stagnating agricultural productivity, diverse and complex 
farming systems which make it difficult to single out a few 
systems that would be improved and made to work as is 
the case of Asia during the Green Revolution (Barrett et 
al., 2005; Smith et al., 2000; Nile Basin Initiative, 1998; 
Smith, 1994).  

There are many casual factors for the persistent and 
chronic food insecurity in the Nile Basin. First, there is 
inadequate growth in agriculture which has an inherent 
relationship with incidences of chronic food insecurity. 
There is high dependence on rainfed agriculture that is 

  
  

 
 

 

heavily reliant on traditional factors of production (land, 
labour and capital). Without supplementary irrigation, 
many farmers are exposed to risks of production failure in 
both crop and livestock systems, which in turn, affect the 
proportion of food that is produced, consumed and 
marketed (Omiti et al., 2008; Appelgren et al., 2000; 
Smith et al., 2000). Secondly, most of the Nile basin 
countries have infertile soils as a result of prolonged and 
intensive land use, shortening fallow periods and 
abandonment of shifting cultivation that is used to restore 
fertility and productivity (ASARECA, 2004; Mwangi, 
1997). In livestock, the public delivery systems have 
collapsed, the cost and quality of feeds often varies 
significantly and leads to low levels of output (Wanyoike 
et al., 2002; Leonard, 2000). Pests and diseases cause 
substantial damage during production and storage 
processes. These constraints are aggravated by the 
behavior of farmers who tend to be risk averse for a 
variety of reasons including financial constraints (Barrett 
et al., 2005; Freeman and Omiti, 2003).  

As a result of insufficient food supply, many of the 
countries in the region are forced to import food to meet 
domestic demand. Some of the imports are sought as 
food aid. Food aid is sometimes a common response to 
transitory food insecurity and is often a way to cope with 
variable food import requirements and restricted 
commercial import capacity in low-income economies 
(WFP, 2008; Barrett, 1999). An increased food import bill 
tends to be the opportunity cost for other imports such as 
equipment or investments in research and technology (Yu 
et al., 2010). While markets and related support services 
can improve access to food and hence encourage 
gradual development, poor physical and storage 
infrastructure in the Nile basin hinders develop-ment of 
food markets and limits access to food. However, a direct 
result has been decline in per capita agricultural 
production over time due to market distortions and the 
characteristic low-input low-output agriculture in countries 
such as Ethiopia (FAO/WFP, 2010; Gebreselassie, 
2006).  

Third, another critical aspect affecting food availability 
in the Nile basin is the rapid increase in human popu-
lation, often in excess of the annual rate of economic 
growth. The total population in the Nile basin was 
expected to increase from 210 million in 2005 to 336 
million in 2030 (FAONILE, 2005). For example, a recent 
(2009) population census in Kenya shows that the 
country’s population has been growing at 3% per annum 
during the last decade (1999 to 2009). This has serious 
implications for national planning and socio-economic 
development including food security. No effective policies 
are in place to cope with the unprecedented pressure by 
the high population growth on food demand, infras-
tructure and natural resources in most of the Nile basin 
countries. Natural resources especially land and water 
are increasingly diminishing, implying that technology and 
innovation will have a big role to play in ensuring that 



 
 
 

 
Table 1. Average food security indicators in the Nile Basin countries, 1990 to 2009.  
 
    Food production    Trade Food stocks and utilization 

 

  Food Potential Potential Soil without Fertilizer Food imports Share (%) of food Food aid Global Urban  

    
 

 Country production arable land arable land major use on share of total aid in total cereal hunger population 
 

  per person as % of total actually in constraints arable land exports (%) consumption (Tonnes) index % of total 
 

  (Kg/year) land use (%) (%) (Kg/Ha) (2004 -2006) (2004 -2006) (2004 -2006) (2009) population 
 

          
 

 Burundi 105.1 37.33 21 30 25.94    38.7 10.40 
 

 Congo, D.R. 100.7 2.95 14 45 5.16 5.7 1 69,073 39.1 33.96 
 

 Egypt 94.5 2.82 n/a n/a 4,781.37 13.2 0.1 14,422 <5 42.72 
 

 Ethiopia 101.3 10.93 34 26 62.95 4.4 5.2 687,377 30.8 17.00 
 

 Kenya 103.7 8.97 27 16 287.30 18.5 2.4 143,645 20.2 21.60 
 

 Rwanda 105.4 38.15 25 19 20.99 5.1 2.6 23,527 25.4 18.34 
 

 Sudan 95.8 6.87 14 25 39.16 8.9 7.1 436,403 19.6 43.44 
 

 Tanzania 105.0 10.25 25 49 54.62 13.9 n/a 55,475 21.1 25.52 
 

 Uganda 97.7 26.08 13 40 9.09 4 2.2 102,667 14.8 12.98 
 

 
Source: World Bank, 2010; IFPRI, 2010; FAOSTAT, 2010; FAO/AGL-TERRASTAT, 2003. 
 

 

agricultural commodities are produced at higher 
yield per unit of land, water, energy and time. With 
an exception of Egypt, other Nile basin countries 
are net food buyers, which especially affect the 
poor who spend 60 to 80% of their income on food 
(Yu et al., 2010). This paper explores policy 
dimensions of chronic food security in the Nile 
basin, by reviewing agricultural productivity and its 
potential to enhance food production capacity and 
trade to feed the increasing human population and 
support sustainable livelihoods in the nine African 
countries: Burundi, Democratic Republic of 
Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, 
Tanzania and Uganda. 

 
 

Objective of the study 
 

The objective of this study were to scope out 
critical food insecurity issues in the Nile Basin 
region and suggest promising interventions to 

 
 

 

improve food security either by way of productive  
investments or technology development, 
especially at regional level. 
 

 

METHODOLOGY 
 
Conceptual framework 
 
Conceptually, food security involves implementation of 
policies, strategies and action programmes to promote and 
guarantee food availability, accessibility and effective and 
efficient utilization by all people at all times (FAO, 1996). 
Issues around food availability comprise domestic 
production, import capacity, available food stocks and food 
distribution systems in a country or region. Application of 
modern agricultural technologies plays a pivotal role in 
increasing production and productivity which is critical to 
achieving the food supply-demand balance. The issue of 
access to food is essentially determined by the purchasing 
power (that is, incomes and wages), poverty level, prices of 
food, and the distribution, transport and market systems. 
Effective utilization of food is influenced by people’s 

 
 

 
culture, access to knowledge about proper nutrition, 
energy and clean water. Figure 1 show the conceptual 
relationships embodied in assuring food security at a multi-
sectoral and multi-dimensional level. For food security to 
be achieved, relevant policy recommendations and 
implementation on food and livelihood security is a 
prerequisite (United Nations, 2010; NEPAD, 2009; 
Tschirley et al., 2008; Majid, 2004).  

Markets play a critical role in ensuring that the food 
produced is distributed. However, food markets in the Nile 
basin countries are thin and weak. There is a sufficient 
domestic demand or export possibilities to stimulate growth 
in food production frontier. There is need to increase food 
production and productivity since the population in the Nile 
basin region is rapidly growing. Proactive policies will need 
to be applied now to exploit the potential in agriculture and 
trade opportunities in the Nile Basin to meet future food 
demand (Tshirley et al., 2008; Maxwell, 1996). 
 

 
Data 

 
Food availability was captured by (1) the levels and trends 
of food production (for example, through per capita food 



   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
Figure 1. Food security as a multi-dimensional and multisectoral context. Source: Adapted from NEPAD (2009) and Benson (2004). 

 
 

 
production, agricultural production /potential based on soil fertility, 
and input use), (2) trade or food imports, (3) food stocks, and (4) 
factors that affect food consumption. Per capita annual food 
production, agricultural potential/fertilizer use, and the ratio of 
imports to exports were used to indicate the status of food supply. 
Food distribution and utilization was proxied by the rate of 
urbanization while the level of hunger and malnutrition is computed 
by the global hunger index. The indicators can be used to shed 
more light on the different dimensions of food security at various 
levels of aggregation (household, community, national and 
regional). 
 
 
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 
 
Food production in the Nile basin countries 

 

Most of the farmers in the Nile Basin practice rainfed agri-
culture with limited adoption of yield-increasing inputs. 
Egypt has a high fertilizer use of 386 Kg/ha compared to 
upstream countries such as Kenya with an average of 31 
Kg/ ha or Ethiopia with an average of 14 Kg/ ha (FAO, 
2009). Very little arable land is utilized in the region with 
countries like DR Congo utilizing less than 1% and 
Tanzania using only 5% (Table 1) yet these countries has 

 
 
 

 

considerable land without any major constraints. For 
example, DR Congo has about 14% and Tanzania about 
25% of its soil without having any major constraints. 
Burundi and Rwanda are utilizing more than 85% of their 
arable land yet they are not able to feed their population 
due to low input usage. For instance, Sudan is endowed 
with plenty of cultivable land estimated at 86 million 
hectare. However, less than 20% is utilized at present 
under the three major farming sub-sectors: The irrigated, 
the semi-mechanized rain-fed and the agro-pastoral 
traditional rain-fed (FAO/WFP, 2010a). These results 
imply that different countries in the region require different 
interventions to increase their food security.  

Average per capita food production in most countries of 
the Nile basin has not been enough to feed growing 
human population. For instance, in Ethiopia, the domestic 
food production matched population growth only in the 
1960s as per capita domestic food production has 
steadily declined over the last three decades (United 
Nations, 2010). At the same time, the level of productivity 
for the different food crops is critical since the food basket 
is a mix of essential foodstuffs, where sources of energy 
(cereals) are critically important. 



 
 

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Burundi Congo Ethiopia Kenya Rwanda Sudan Tanzania Uganda Egypt  

 
Figure 2. Cereal yields (Kg/ha) in the Nile basin countries, 1990-2008. Source: FAO Statistics Division, 2010. 

 
 

 

As an illustration, Figure 2 shows the worrisome trends 
in cereal yields in the Nile basin between 1990 and 2008. 
It is evident that overall productivity has been declining. 
With the exception of Egypt, none of the other countries 
since the 1990s has been able to obtain two(2) 
tonnes/hectare although they have potential to realize 
three times as much. For instance, in 2008, Uganda had 
a cereal productivity of 1,590 kg/ha while Egypt has a 
cereal productivity of about 7,500 kg/ha. Nonetheless, 
Uganda is generally self-sufficient in most of the staples, 
except rice and wheat. Uganda supplies about 5% of 
Kenya’s maize requirement in addition to exporting to 
Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania and more recently Southern 
Sudan. Uganda can potentially serve as a grain basket 
for the region (RATIN, 2009). Tanzania is a net importer 
of cereals with a productivity of 1,350 kg/ha. Sudan and 
Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) have the lowest 
productivities in the region of about 770 and 610 kg/ ha, 
respectively. It is not surprising that DRC has the highest 
malnutrition in the region and even in the world (FAO, 
2010; Pauw, 2010).  

The low cereal productivity in the Nile basin is partly 
attributed to limited adoption of high-yielding varieties and 

 
 
 

 

low usage of improved technologies (for example, hybrid 
seed, chemical fertilizer). With the exception of Egypt, 
usage of improved technologies is considerably low in 
other Nile basin countries. Egypt has high fertilizer use 
estimated at 385.8 Kg/ha while Burundi, Uganda, 
Rwanda and Sudan have very low fertilizer use of less 
than 3 kg/ ha. With hindsight on attitudes to risk under 
rainfed agriculture, Egypt practices intensive agriculture 
due to heavy investments in irrigation because of 
guaranteed access to the Nile waters. However, issues of 
water-efficient technologies have become increasingly 
important due to the resultant pollution and salinity due to 
high fertilizer use (Khalifa, 2010; Omiti et al., 2008; Nile 
Basin Initiative, 1998).  

Though maize is widely grown in the Nile basin, it is 
more predominant in the lower and Eastern Nile in 
addition to wheat, millet and sorghum. In the Southern 
Nile (DR Congo, Rwanda, Burundi), roots and tubers (for 
example, sweet potatoes, cassava and yams) are the 
main food staples. Figure 3 shows the trends in yield of 
roots and tubers in the Nile basin. Egypt has higher 
productivity though it declined from about 25,000 kg/ ha 
in 2004 to 11,000 kg/ ha in 2008. Kenya has an average 



  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

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                Years                
 

                           
 

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Uganda     
Egypt                  

 

                           
 

                                   

 
 

 
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Figure 3. Yields of roots and tubers (Kg/ ha) in the Nile basin, 1990 to 2008. Source: FAO Statistics Division, 2010. 
 

 

of about 10,000 kg/ ha with the other basin countries 
producing between 4,000 and 8,000 kg/ ha. Although, 
roots and tubers are not internationally traded in their 
primary form, they are important food security crops in 
the region. In addition, except for Irish potatoes, markets 
for roots and tubers are not well developed on a national 
or regional scale due to the bulkiness and perishability of 
these food commodities.  

Pulses (for example, beans, peas) are an important 
source of protein especially for rural population in most 
Sub–Saharan African countries, which may not frequently 
afford the relatively more expensive meat (for example 
beef, and chicken). Figure 4 shows the yields of pulses 
over the last decade. Notably Sudan had productivity of 
about 1400 kg/ha but this has declined to 900 kg/ha. The 
other basin countries have productivity ranging from 400 
kg/ha in Kenya to 700 kg/ ha in Rwanda, Tanzania and 
Uganda.  

Productivity of pulses has been increasing annually in 
Ethiopia from 800 kg/ha in 1993 to 1200 kg/ha in 2008 
while Burundi achieves about 900 kg/ha. A major 
challenge to increasing pulse production lies in the fact 
that most of pulses are often intercropped and therefore 
proper crop husbandry is not often practiced widely.  

Livestock for example cattle, sheep, goat, poultry and 
camel production is an important source of livelihood for 
pastoralists in the Nile basin countries. Livestock 
production systems range from subsistence to intensive 
commercial production. Production is concentrated in the 
Lower Nile basin and cattle production dominates the 

 
 

 

sector. Individual Nile basin countries have different 
production systems that range from nomadic grazing, 
through small-holder farming based on animal traction 
and growing of legumes and forage to enhance livestock 
production and to increase soil fertility and crop yields.  

Figure 5 shows composite yields from livestock in the 
Nile basin countries, indicating an average productivity of 
700 kg/animal in Egypt and 550 kg/animal in Kenya 
compared to 350 kg/animal in Ethiopia and Sudan while 
other Nile basin countries recorded average productivity 
levels in the range of 150 to 250 kg/animal. These low 
levels of performance demonstrate that the production 
efficiencies need to be improved with major emphasis 
being placed on herd improvement, better husbandry 
practices including nutrition and feeding.Other sectors 
that have potential in the region include aquaculture 
which makes a significant contribution to fish production 
in the lower Nile. However, statistics indicate little 
contribution of fisheries to the wider economy and food 
security in the Nile basin. For example, Nile perch (Lates 
niloticus) and tilapia (Tilapiine cichlid tribe) dominate the 
inland fisheries from Lake Victoria and are major exports 
for the three East African countries of Kenya, Tanzania 
and Uganda. 
 

 

Food imports into the Nile basin region 

 

Although, the Nile Basin Initiative countries are charac-
terized by variation in factor endowments, imperfections 



 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

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         Years          
 

 Burundi  Congo  Ethiopia Kenya  Rwanda  Sudan  
 

 Tanzania  Uganda  Egypt           
  

 
 

        Figure 4. Yields of pulses (Kg/ ha) in the Nile basin, 1990 to 2008. Source: FAO Statistics Division, 2010. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

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     Burundi    Congo    Egypt     Ethiopia   Kenya     Rwanda  
 

                      
 

     
Sudan 

   
Tanzania 

  
Uganda 

            
 

                      
  

 
Figure 5. Yields of livestock (Kg/animal) in the Nile basin, 1990 to 2008. Source: FAO Statistics Division, 2010. 

 

 

in the markets and differential preferences for the 
commodities, the volume and value of intra-regional trade 
is small. Cross border trade between the Nile Basin 
countries has largely been ignored and its potential 

 
 

 

remains un-exploited. Almost all the Nile basin countries 
are members of the COMESA trading block, where grain, 
and for most countries maize, is synonymous to food 
security. In a bid to ensure trade in grain contributes 



   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Figure 6. COMESA and EAC maize intra export and import. Source: COMESA database, 2008.  
 

 

20,000,000 

 

15,000,000 
 

 Intra-Exports 

10,000,000 

 

5,000,000 
 

Extra Imports 
 

 
 

 
 

 

- 
 COMESA Market Size 

 
 
 

 

Figure  7.  COMESA market size for  beans, cassava, rice and millet  in 2007 (figures  in US$).  
Source: COMESA database, 2008. 

 

 

towards regional food security, COMESA and EAC have 
removed tariff on intra regional trade in grain but adopted 
an external tariff structure ranging between 35% for rice 
to 50% for maize in a bid to protect regional market and 
encourage investments in the production of grain. This 
notwithstanding, regional trade in grain is quite dismal 
figure 6. For instance, in 2007, total maize exports within 
the region (intra exports) amounted to only about US$ 
170 million out of the total market size of over US $ 1.75 
billion (COMESA database, 2008).  

The same case applies to beans, bananas, cassava, 
rice and millet, all of which are important food crops in the 
region. The level of intra COMESA exports has con-
sistently been small compared to extra regional imports 
(Figure 7). These examples demonstrate the existence of 
huge trading potential in food products among Nile basin 
countries. 

 
 

 

The insignificant volume of intra-regional trade has 
been attributed to various technological, policy, 
institutional, legal and other barriers to trade that inhibit 
movement of goods and services from one country to 
another. Shortfalls in domestic food production are mainly 
satisfied through trade or humanitarian assistance from 
outside the Nile basin. Most of the Nile basin countries 
have limited capacity to finance their food imports from 
their exports. This is especially significant for the land-
locked countries such as Burundi, DR Congo, Ethiopia, 
Rwanda and Uganda. On average, food imports surpass 
food exports suggesting that the Nile Basin region is 
becoming increasingly food-deficient which is an 
important policy concern in many Nile Basin countries.  

When the share of food aid in total consumption is 
taken into account (Table 1), Sudan is the largest 
recipient of food aid (at about 7% ) in the Nile Basin 



 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

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Years  
 

 
Total Imports (M)       Total Exports (X)       Food balance (X-M) 

 
Figure 8. Average annual balance of food imports and exports of Nile basin countries. Source: FAOSTAT (2010). 

 

 

followed by Ethiopia and Burundi where about 5% of total 
consumption is from food aid. It is instructive to note that 
parts of these countries have either experienced extreme 
droughts (and therefore, crop failure), insecurity or 
sporadic conflict that has necessitated international 
assistance. Besides maize, other staples imported during 
the same period were wheat and rice where there is 
rising consumer demand. This has some important 
implications in terms of the changing diets and therefore, 
emerging need to think of expanding wheat and rice 
farming in the Nile basin to reduce heavy dependency on 
imports. 

 

Trends in per capita food supply and consumption 
 
Like elsewhere in the developing world, urbanization is a 
major factor driving the socio-economic development of in 
most Nile Basin countries. Egypt has 43% of its 
population in the urban areas, Sudan 41% and Kenya 
21% (Table 1). While food production is concentrated in 
the rural areas and along the River Nile, urban 
populations tend to be more involved in the formal and 
informal employment sector. Through interactions with 
the market, urbanization often encourages changes in 
dietary habits and lifestyles. The average annual change 
in food availability per person (Figure 8) is declining for 
Burundi, Congo and Tanzania indicating high food 
insecurity. In other Nile basin countries, the growth in 
food availability and population growth shows positive 
growth especially in Egypt, Kenya and Uganda where 
food availability per person has been growing at about 
1% annually, for the last two decades (1990 to 2010).  

The global hunger index measures the proportion of the 
population that does not meet its food requirements to 
sustain a normal and healthy productive life. Conflicts, 

 
 

 

political instability, and high rates of HIV and AIDS have 
lead to high child mortality and a high proportion of 
people who cannot meet their energy requirements 
especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. There are large 
disparities in the fight against hunger in the Nile Basin 
countries. Figure 9 shows the countries with the largest 
changes in hunger within the Nile basin countries, proxied 
by their global hunger index rating (GHI). With a GHI 
index of below 5% of the population, Egypt has very few 
citizens experiencing levels of hunger that can trigger 
serious policy concerns. Between 1986 and 1993, the 
country implemented a multi-year agricultural policy 
reform program to remove government control on farm 
prices, crop area controls, procurement quotas, private 
sector processing and marketing of farm products and 
inputs and to eliminate farm input subsidies. Simul-
taneously, the whole economy underwent structural and 
fiscal reforms to facilitate growth, especially in the agricul-
tural sector. The only food subsidy currently in operation 
is the “baladi” bread subsidy (Soliman et al., 2010).  

In stark contrast to Egypt, the other eight Nile Basin 
countries have a sizeable proportion of their population 
experiencing chronic hunger and pervasive malnutrition. 
For the last two decades, DRC (GHI = 39.1), Ethiopia 
(GHI = 30.8) and Burundi (GHI = 38.7) have extremely 
alarming hunger levels which could be attributed to the 
civil war for DR Congo and Burundi, in addition to low 
agricultural productivity and limited regional trade. In 
Ethiopia, almost half of the population does not meet its 
daily food requirements. Uganda (GHI = 14.8) has a 
better index than other East African countries largely due 
to its better climatic regime and greater food diversity.  

Overall, hunger has been decreasing for all the Nile 
basin countries since 2007 but at varying rates. However, 
because of increasing population, the number of people 



  
 
 
 

 
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Congo Egypt 

 

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Food Consumption  Population Growth  

 
 

Figure 9. Average annual rate of change (%) in food consumption and population growth 1990 to 2005. Source: FAO 
Statistics Division, 2010. 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 

G
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50  
 
45 
 
40 
 
35 
 
30 
 
25 
 
20 
 
15 
 
10 
 

5 
 

0  
Egypt Uganda Kenya Sudan Tanzania Rwanda DR Congo Burundi Ethiopia 

 
Countries  

 
 

1990  1997  2007  2009 

 
Figure 10. Global hunger index for Nile basin countries, 1990 to 2009. Source: IFPRI, 2010. 

 

experiencing hunger and malnutrition could be increasing 
in absolute numbers (Figure 10). 

 

Food security policies in the Nile basin 
 
A number of countries in the Nile basin region have 
developed food security and nutrition programmes to 
facilitate implementation of food security policies as well 
as promote agricultural growth. The policy interventions 
can be broadly grouped into three categories namely 
those (1) promoting domestic supply, (2) affecting food 
distribution, and (3) facilitating trade. Trade is critical to 
net food importing countries in the Nile basin region, 
therefore the trade policies play a critical role in ensuring 

 

 

food supply, accessibility and stability of food prices 
(United Nations, 2010). Some of the policy interventions 
that the Nile basin countries have taken Table 2.For 
instance, Kenya has applied the largest are presented in 
cocktail of polices compared to the other Nile basin 
countries. These interventions have been carried out 
intermittently, sometimes with abrupt changes in speed 
and direction. Except perhaps for Egypt, the other eight 
Nile basin countries are generally food insecured. 

 

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 
 
Food insecurity is one of the primary development 
challenges facing the Nile Basin countries. A majority of 



 
 
 

 
Table 2. Some food security policy interventions in some Nile Basin countries.  
 
    Countries   

 Policy Intervention Burundi Ethiopia Kenya Rwanda Tanzania Egypt 

 Consumer focused       

 Reduce taxes on food grains √ √ √  √  

 Cash transfers √  √    

 Price controls and/or consumer subsidies    √   

 Food stamps or vouchers √  √  √  

 Food-for-work √  √   √ 

 School feeding √  √   √ 

 Domestic supply       
 Agricultural input subsidies   √    

 Increase food supply using food grain stocks  √ √  √  

 International trade       
 Increase food supply via imports  √ √ √   

 Reduce food import tariffs   √    

 Lower import tariffs for agricultural inputs   √    

 Food export restrictions  √ √  √ √ 
 

Source: (FAO, 2009; Karugia et al., 2009). 
 

 

these countries experience chronic food shortages and 
frequent famines despite considerable potential to 
address this problem. Agriculture in the basin is charac-
terized by low productivity and limited intraregional trade, 
leading to insufficient food, both produced and imported. 
Compared to other regions of the world where the 
problem of food insecurity has been overcome, it seems 
that food insecurity is more of a problem of structural and 
policy failure in the Nile Basin region. Despite variations 
across countries and livelihood systems in various 
aspects of food insecurity, there are some generalisable 
characteristics that can permit policy makers to re-start 
the debate on regional food security agenda and prioritize 
interventions to address food insecurity in the region. 
These interventions must recognize the location-specific 
challenges and the socio-economic and political 
considerations in order to be successful.  

Critical determinants of achieving food production 
revolve around land, access to technology, credit, infras-
tructure (including water), and markets. Relevant policies 
need to be implemented or put in place before the Nile 
basin countries can begin to anticipate an African Green 
Revolution. There is need for a paradigm shift for the Nile 
basin agriculture to focus on improved seed, biotech-
nology, greater input use, irrigated agriculture, integrated 
pest management and commercial-orientation (value 
addition and international trade). The rate of adoption of 
these technologies should be enhanced through the use 
of better delivery mechanisms and systems.  

Governments should facilitate a conducive environment 
to encourage the development of technological, infras-
tructural, and marketing innovations in crop, fish and 

 
 
 

livestock production. One critical aspect is storage 
infrastructure that will allow for surpluses to be stored for 
future consumption and allow in price arbitrage thus, 
cushioning the poor populations in the region. Critical 
issues that may need to be addressed to facilitate this 
paradigm shift will be increase investments in food 
production, improved governance structures and political 
goodwill to push this agenda forward.  

On the other hand, regional trade in food staples 
represents one of the single biggest opportunity for 
agricultural development and has the potential to 
significantly contribute to stabilizing food supply and food 
prices. Prioritizing this issue is consistent with the 
priorities identified in the CAADP framework, which 
highlights the importance of trade infrastructure, market 
access, and cross-border trade to attain food security 
(NEPAD, 2009). The trading blocs promote trade through 
low preferential tariff rates, investments and agreements. 
The Nile basin country governments should remove 
various restrictions on trade in order to reduce costs; 
thereby facilitating increased cross-border flow of agricul-
tural commodities. Regional commerce will also allow 
industries to grow and compete effectively and also 
provide a platform to push for regional agenda with a 
strong voice at international arena especially in trade 
negotiations, hence, safeguard the interests of Nile basin. 

 
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