




































AGORA International Journal of Economical Sciences, http://univagora.ro/jour/index.php/aijes 

ISSN 2067-3310, E-ISSN 2067-7669 

Vol. 18, No. 1 (2024), pp. 250-261 

 

250 
 

STRATEGIES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF INERNATIONAL 

TRADE IN UKRAINE 

 

T. ZUBKO 

 

Tetiana Zubko 

State University of Trade and Economics, Ukraine 

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8950-1797, E-mail: t.zubko@knute.edu.ua  

 

Abstract: Foreign economic security is one of the key aspects of the stable development 

of the economy of any country, including Ukraine. To strengthen it, it is necessary to develop 

and implement strategic directions aimed at ensuring reliable and sustainable functioning of 

the economy and reducing its dependence on external risks. The practical significance of the 

study of strategies for the development of the State's foreign economic activity is to identify 

the main guidelines for Ukraine's further development in the context of post-war recovery. 

The purpose of the study is to identify the main strategic directions for the further 

development of Ukraine's foreign trade operations caused by the development of the 

European integration process, the complication of the political and legal situation, and 

changes in partnership relations between countries. The following priority areas of action 

have been identified for Ukraine's foreign trade in view of European integration: adherence 

to and acceleration of the strategic sequence of reforms, taking into account changes in the 

state of political and economic relations; Increasing financial and technical support from the 

EU, subject to the conditions for increasing the transparency of cash flows and the efficiency 

of their use; increasing partnership with non-European countries. 

Keywords: international trade, European integration, neo-protectionism, war, 

development. 

 

INTRODUCTION    

The intensification of international relations and trade is driven by their dynamics and 

the growing integration of states. The number of strategic alliances in international business 

is steadily increasing. For Ukraine, this issue is relevant because there is a growing need to 

develop partnerships in modern business under martial law and integration processes in the 

global economy. At the same time, there is a phenomenon of neo-protectionism that 

significantly complicates Ukraine's foreign trade, weakened by Russia's aggression, which 

has destroyed most logistics connections.  

The purpose of the study is to identify the main strategic directions for the further 

development of Ukraine's foreign trade operations caused by the development of the 

European integration process, the complication of the political and legal situation, and 

changes in partnership relations between countries. To achieve this goal, the tools of 

theoretical generalization, analysis and synthesis were used. Based on the results of research 

by leading scholars, the main challenges accompanying the development of Ukraine's trade 

with partner countries are identified.  

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8950-1797
mailto:t.zubko@knute.edu.ua


Tetiana ZUBKO 

251 
 

 Foreign economic security is one of the key aspects of the stable development of the 

economy of any country, including Ukraine. To strengthen it, it is necessary to develop and 

implement strategic directions aimed at ensuring reliable and sustainable functioning of the 

economy and reducing its dependence on external risks. The practical significance of the 

study of strategies for the development of the State's foreign economic activity is to identify 

the main guidelines for Ukraine's further development in the context of post-war recovery.    

 

Ukraine's international trade with EU 

A country's foreign economic activity is important in addressing a number of issues 

related to the sustainable functioning of the economy and preventing crises. This sector is 

responsible for providing the necessary resources, technologies, and innovations required for 

the production of goods. The development of foreign trade helps to build up the resource 

potential and ensures the growth of national income. The need to improve Ukraine's foreign 

economic activity is caused by the problems of the economy's dependence on monopoly 

markets for imports of goods and resources, the quality of exported goods, and the expansion 

of their supply.  Ukraine cannot stay away from the integration processes taking place in the 

global economic space. 

The decline in GDP and the corresponding depreciation of key economic assets limits 

the creation of added value at Ukrainian enterprises and significantly reduces their economic 

security. However, there is an increase in Ukraine's commodity trade with the EU member 

states; since 2016, there has been a gradual increase in cooperation with the EU in both 

exports and imports of goods, which is shown in Table 1. 

 

Table 1 

Exports and Imports of Ukrainian Goods from the EU and Other Countries in 2014-2023, 

USD billion  

Years 

Exports Import 

The EU Other countries Total The EU 

Other 

countries Total 

2014 17,00 36,90 53,90 21,07 33,36 54,43 

2015 13,02 25,11 38,13 15,33 22,19 37,52 

2016 13,50 22,86 36,36 17,40 21,85 39,25 

2017 17,53 25,73 43,26 20,80 28,81 49,61 

2018 20,16 27,17 47,33 23,22 33,97 57,19 

2019 20,75 29,30 50,05 25,01 35,79 60,8 

2020 18,61 30,60 49,21 23,50 30,59 54,09 

2021 26,79 41,30 68,09 28,30 44,52 72,82 

2022 27,80 16,40 44,20 27,00 28,30 55,30 

2023 22,69 13,50 36,19 43,20 20,36 63,56 

Resource: Zubko, 2021. 

 

The decline in the volume of domestically produced goods was accompanied by a 

corresponding decline in its export potential. By the end of 2023, the share of Ukraine's 



STRATEGIES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF INERNATIONAL TRADE IN UKRAINE 

 

252 
 

merchandise exports in global exports decreased to 0.19%, which is half of the 2014 year’s 

figures. The decline in exports also affected the ability to supply imported goods. The share 

of domestic imports in world trade fell to 0.2% in 2023, which is also half the level of 2014. 

The aggressive expansion of commodity imports has led to a significant deformation of the 

domestic commodity market, causing the decline of key industries and a critical accumulation 

of the trade deficit: -2.9% of GDP in 2014, -12.8% of GDP in 2023. Analyzing the state of 

Ukraine's foreign trade relations in 2014-2023, it can be concluded that Ukraine's commodity 

trade with the EU member states retains its potential.   

The current globalization of trade processes presents a number of challenges for 

Ukraine, related to the search for new sources of competitiveness and the creation of new 

economic partnerships, in cooperation with which our country could accelerate the 

modernization of the national economy. Russia's war has caused problems for exports, 

brought about new economic aspects of such a war, and necessitated new comprehensive 

economic deterrence measures and tools to counteract aggression. This problem is 

exacerbated by the need to reconsider the concept of ensuring Ukraine's economic security in 

the context of military aggression unleashed since 2014. The deterioration of the socio-

economic situation in our country caused by the war with Russia, the pandemic, and the 

unfavorable external environment have led to a decrease in Ukraine's foreign trade. In 2022, 

Ukrainian business exported goods worth USD 44.1 billion. This is a third less than in the 

previous year. In the year 2023, Ukraine encountered a significant shortage of goods 

amounting to more than USD 26 billion owing to logistical challenges and defense 

requirements. In 2023, our country mainly exported the following groups of goods: cereals 

(18.5%), fats and oils (13.1%), and ferrous metals (12.7%). Ukraine mainly imported the 

following categories of goods: fuel (mineral - 17.2% and nuclear 8.1%), means of land 

transport (10.8%), electrical machinery, equipment, and parts thereof (9.4%), plastics, 

polymeric materials and products thereof (6.1%).   

 

Economic instability as an environment for the formation of neo-protectionism 

According to analysts (World Bank, 2023), trade liberalization in the period 1990-2008 

allowed for the intensification of international trade relations and increased the incomes of 

countries. This process contributed to the formation of the global economy and reduced 

poverty in many countries. 

The current state of international trade is characterized by increasing transformations in 

commodity market relations and the phenomenon of neo-protectionism. Many scholars have 

studied the development of international trade in the context of neo-protectionism (Zalizniuk, 

2024; Kaliuzhna, 2023; Abboushi, 2010; Lang, 1984; Mazaraki & Melnyk, 2019). Based on 

the analysis of the works of these scholars, several main conclusions can be drawn. Firstly, 

protectionism (Hager, 1982) is a means of ensuring state autonomy in the spheres of national 

production from unauthorized competitive actions. This statement implies that neo-

protectionism provides advantages for the state trade and export sector to increase the state 

budget and improve the situation of commodity producers in a given country (Lang, 1984). 

Secondly, according to research by scholars (Zalizniuk, 2024; Ishchuk, 2021), 

neoprotectionist tools include the establishment of different quality standards for foreign 

producers, the introduction of additional export restrictions, and rules for granting subsidies. 



Tetiana ZUBKO 

253 
 

Third, neo-protectionism manifests itself in a variety of ways, in different areas: 

environmental, integration and disintegration, trade in goods and raw materials, customs and 

tariffs, fuel, and others. Fourth, the trade war is one of the manifestations of neo-

protectionism.  Although it has a negative sound, the restriction of exports of certain groups 

of goods and services by states associated with trade giants is a means of weakening 

competition in international trade and at the same time is an incentive for national producers. 

In turn, this causes the development of innovations within the framework of national 

development strategies. 

 

Strategic Determinants of Ukraine's Foreign Trade in the Postwar Period 

The development of the global economic system and its subsystems at different levels 

(countries, economic sectors, enterprises) is taking place in the context of increasing 

globalization and international strategic partnership. There is a need to review and improve 

international integration processes. Growing global and regional competition, intensifying 

rivalry for markets and resources pose new challenges, but also opportunities for the 

emergence of new joint associations at different levels. 

Today, the priority in Ukraine is to save the population and restore the country's 

economy to a healthy state. Russia's invasion has shown which countries have become our 

partners and will continue to be so. Most of the world (140 out of 184 countries) condemn 

Russia's aggression and are trying to reduce trade ties with it. This gives Ukraine an 

opportunity to increase its exports. 

The selection of priorities is essential for a consistent and sustainable transition to the 

conditions of operation defined by the Association Agreement and the establishment of a 

deep and comprehensive free trade area. In the current state of political, economic, and social 

crisis, a novel paradigm for the advancement of the nation, society, and individuals is being 

established. In view of Ukraine's European integration, the following priorities are set for 

foreign trade 

- accelerating and maintaining the sequence of reforms, taking into account changes in 

political and economic relations; 

- increasing financial and technical support from the EU, fulfilling the conditions for 

increasing the level of transparency of cash flows and the efficiency of their use; 

- improving partnerships with non-European countries. 

The first direction is acceleration of strategic reforms includes the following provisions:  

- identify and accelerate institutional transformations related to the business environment;  

- to facilitate relations between business communities in the EU and DCFTA countries;  

- ensure the consistency of reforms aimed at addressing the problems of 

competitiveness of Ukrainian products and their access to markets.  

The second area is to increase the EU's financial and technical support for the 

fulfillment of cooperation and reform conditions. According to the Pulse of the Agreement 

resource, 3 billion euros were planned to be allocated in 2022 to help Ukraine implement 

reforms to join the EU (Laptіev & Sidak, 2019). Under the Horizon Europe program, Ukraine 

will receive additional funds for grants and research (Horizon Europe, 2024).  

The EU-Ukraine Association Agreement has a significant impact on Ukraine's pursuit 

of its interests in the context of globalization. As a supplement to the DCFTA, the Agreement 



STRATEGIES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF INERNATIONAL TRADE IN UKRAINE 

 

254 
 

has contributed to the formation of trade preferences and an increase in tariff quotas for key 

export items. Accordingly, the share of foreign trade turnover with the EU increased 

significantly from 21.6% (in 2020) to 44.8% (in 2021), in exports from 32.1% to 39.8%, and 

in imports from 33.6% to 44.6%. In 2022, the share of EU exports in total exports from 

Ukraine was 63%, and in 2023 - 62.7%. 

Increasing trade with the EU is fully in line with Ukraine's national interests. This has 

determined the main vectors of economic, technological, and innovation progress that led to 

Ukraine's accession to the EU's “four unions”: energy and customs unions, the introduction of 

the digital market, and the association with the Schengen area.  

The largest volumes of foreign direct investment (FDI) were invested by non-residents 

from EU countries. This facilitates the movement of investment and credit capital. In 2021, 

FDI in Ukraine's economy amounted to USD 6.747 billion. Most FDI came from the 

Netherlands is USD 922.8 million and Germany is USD 242.9 million. At the same time, 

Investors from Switzerland returned USD 112.7 million of investments, and USD 83 million 

was withdrawn from Ukraine by Cyprus. Prior to that, Cyprus was the largest source of 

foreign investment in Ukraine. 

Most investments came from the following countries: Cyprus, the Netherlands, the 

United Kingdom, Germany, France, and Austria. This was facilitated by the adoption of the 

Law of Ukraine "On the Regime of Foreign Investment." However, as of today, the volume 

of foreign investment has declined significantly due to Russian intervention. In 2022, the 

volume of foreign direct investment in Ukraine amounted to USD 1,152 million. 

 However, integration and globalization processes have a number of challenges in 

addition to their benefits. Macroeconomic threats include increased political and economic 

dependence, accelerated changes in market conditions, and increased competition for sources 

of raw materials and markets. This process is based on the uneven socio-economic, technical 

and technological development of different regions. 

Ukraine has chosen the path of European integration, which requires balanced changes 

and transformations in many aspects of public life. The main challenges today are: the 

unsatisfactory efficiency of the governance system in Ukraine, certain complications within 

the EU, Russia's war against our country, and the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic. 

At the same time, we can feel the EU's support in this difficult time for Ukrainians, as 

evidenced by the launch of the EU candidate status procedure. 

For successful cooperation with the EU, Ukraine should work in the following areas:  

 updating the Agreement to liberalize the conditions for mutual trade;  

 changes in product certification in accordance with EU legislation;  

 creation of a common aviation area;  

 deepening cooperation in science and technology;  

 cooperation in the healthcare and pharmaceutical sectors;  

 increased business collaboration and employment. 

The third direction is to build up strategic partnerships with non-European countries: 

the United States, Turkey, China, Israel, and Japan. These countries are powerful 

technological and financial centers.  



Tetiana ZUBKO 

255 
 

As the events of the last year have shown, in the military-political and economic 

spheres, it is important to build a strategic partnership with the United States. This supports 

Ukraine in its efforts to integrate into European and North Atlantic structures. Currently, 

Ukraine receives perhaps the largest financial assistance from the United States, especially 

through the Pentagon's military aid. In recent years, cooperation in the IT, agricultural, 

energy, and military sectors has increased. At the same time, the volume of investments in 

Ukraine's economy and Ukrainian exporters' access to the American market has increased. 

Ukraine has been perceived as an outpost of democratic states, but not all-American 

politicians understand this. 

Most Asian countries have great potential for partnerships. China, Japan, and South 

Korea are friendly partners for Ukraine. Over the past decade, China has been Ukraine's 

second-largest trading partner. Our country closely cooperates with China in agriculture, 

medicine, and electronics. China buys grain, meat, and meat products from Ukraine, for 

which it has introduced its own certification of Ukrainian agricultural products. Among Asian 

countries, Turkey is worth mentioning. In recent years, Turkey's role as both a political and 

economic partner of Ukraine has grown significantly. To this end, a free trade agreement was 

signed, and cooperation in the military-technical and defense-industrial sectors was 

established. 

To study the possibilities of realizing Ukraine's export potential in the EU and Asian 

markets, we calculated the relative comparative advantages in the structure of exports and 

imports by commodity groups using the formula: 

𝐶𝐴𝑖𝑗 = ln

[
 
 
 
𝐸𝑥𝑖𝑗

𝐼𝑚𝑖𝑗

𝐸𝑥𝑖

𝐼𝑚𝑖 ]
 
 
 

, 

Where CAij is the indicator of the comparative advantage of the i-th country for the j-

thproduct; 

Exi, Imi - exports and imports of the i-th country; 

Exij, Imij - exports and imports of the j-th product of the i-th country. 

If CAij>0, then for the j-thproduct it means that the i-th country has a comparative 

advantage in exports to other countries. If CAij<0, it means that it is not advisable for 

Ukraine to export this product (Mazaraki, 2019, p. 360). 

Calculations of the comparative advantages of Ukraine's commodity groups in 2017-

2021 (Zubko, 2022). It has been determined that in Ukraine, among the 96 product groups 

listed in the nomenclature, only 28 have comparative advantages and so far only they are 

expedient to sell on the world market. The highest coefficient of comparative advantages in 

2021 is observed in the following product groups: cereals (4.38), ore, slag, and ash (3.03), 

fats and oils of animal or vegetable origin (2.83), plant materials for the manufacture of 

wickerwork (2.55), ferrous metals (2.27), natural and artificial fur (2.14), products of plant 

origin (2.05), wood and wood products, etc. As of 2022 and 2023, the situation has changed, 

with the following commodity groups having comparative advantages: cereals (4.69), ore, 

slag, and ash (5.63), plant materials for the manufacture of wicker goods (4.28), and products 

of the flour and cereal industry (2.45). This calculation provides the basis for determining the 

product groups that are economically feasible for export. 



STRATEGIES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF INERNATIONAL TRADE IN UKRAINE 

 

256 
 

The leaders in export value in 2022 were: corn (USD 5.94 billion), sunflower oil (USD 

5.46 billion), iron ore (USD 2.9 billion), wheat (USD 2.6 billion), and rapeseed (USD 1.54 

billion). Therefore, it is advisable to increase exports of those commodity groups that have 

greater comparative advantages and higher added value. 

To identify problems and directions for the development of export potential, we have 

analyzed the volume of imports from the EU-27 and Asia in 2020-2023 by commodity 

groups (according to Ukraine's code) in value terms and Ukraine's comparative advantages in 

each of these markets. The share of exports from Ukraine to EU countries and the coefficient 

of comparative advantages of Ukrainian exports are shown in Table 2. 

 

Table 2 

Share of exports from Ukraine to the EU and the coefficient of comparative advantage of 

Ukrainian exports 

Code and name of the product 

item 

Ukraine's share of EU imports, 

% 

CAIs of Ukraine in the EU 

market, units. 

2020 2021 2022 2023 2020 2021 2022 2023 

10. Grain crops 9,46 10,13 7,2 7,7 3,84 4,28 3,2 3,0 

26. Ores, slag, and ash 7,69 8,2 4,1 2,6 2,3 2,93 1,7 1,4 

15. Fats and oils of animal or 

vegetable origin  
9,80 10,2 5,1 2,3 2,9 2,73 1,6 1,5 

14. Plant materials for the 

manufacture of wicker products  
0,24 0,23 0,2 0,1 4,09 2,45 2,0 1,7 

72.  Ferrous metals 13,32 14,2 2,1 0,5 1,88 2,17 1,8 0,3 

43. Natural and artificial fur 0,11 0,11 0,08 0,05 1,63 2,04 0,78 0,66 

12. Seeds and fruits of oil 

seeds   
6,65 7,2 4,2 4,0 1,44 1,66 1,4 1,2 

23. Residues and waste from 

the food industry  
2,48 2,51 1,7 0,6 1,62 1,58 1,2 1,05 

44. Wood and wood products 5,25 5,8 5,1 4,1 1,41 1,51 1,4 1,4 

 

The following groups had the largest share in the volume of imports to the EU in 

2022-2023:  

1. Cereals in 2021 amounted to 10.13%. In 2022, grain exports from Ukraine were 

limited to 500 thousand tons per month due to Russia's invasion, which is ten times less than 

the pre-war volume. This season, the volume of exports from Ukraine will decrease. The 

balance of grain to be exported, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, was 17 million 

tons. This included 10 million tons of corn, 6,700 thousand tons of sunflower and its 

products, and 730 thousand tons of soybeans. At the end of 2022, these products were 

exported. The government has established new rules for the export of agricultural goods, in 

particular, it is forbidden to export: oats, millet, buckwheat, sugar, salt, rye, cattle, and meat 

of domestic animals. This means a de facto export ban. The following can be exported under 

the specified declarative licensing: wheat and a mixture of wheat and rye, corn, chicken meat, 



Tetiana ZUBKO 

257 
 

chicken eggs, sunflower oil (www.ukrstat.gov.ua). However, grain crops are not final 

products and have no added value. Ukraine's exports are focused on raw materials, the 

markets for which are not stable and cannot generate significant profits. 

2. In 2021, Ukraine exported vegetable oils (sunflower, soybean, rapeseed, mustard, 

linseed), margarine, and products from vegetable and animal fats and oils, as well as animal 

fat, for USD 7.05 billion. This is 22.2% higher than in 2020. Exports of sunflower oil in 2021 

amounted to 6.05 billion USD. This is 90.8% of the total revenue in this product group. 

Soybean and rapeseed oil were also supplied to foreign markets — by USD 0.29 billion 

(4.1%) and USD 0.29 billion (4.1%). USD (4.1%) and USD 0.22 billion (3.2%), respectively. 

USD (3.2%), respectively. In 2021, margarine and products from vegetable and animal fats 

and oils were exported for USD 87 million (2%). USD (1.2%), and pork and poultry fat by 

USD 14.5 million (0.2%) (Zubko, 2022). In 2022, sunflower oil was exported for 5.46 billion 

USD. USD, which was slightly less than in 2021. 

3. Exports of seeds and fruits of oil seeds in 2020 amounted to 7.42%. There was an 

increase in this indicator during the entire study period, before the start of full-scale 

aggression. In 2022, rapeseed seeds and cake were sold for USD 1.54 billion. This is less than 

the pre-war level (in 2021   1.67 billion USD). 

4. Exports of ferrous metals in 2021, according to the State Customs Service, 

increased by USD 6.3 billion. (+81.4%) to USD 13.96 billion on the world market. The 

company's share of the global market is up to USD 96 billion. Customs statistics show that 

the revenue of Ukrainian metallurgical enterprises from the export of ferrous metals in 

January-November 2021 increased by 81% compared to January-November 2020, to USD 

12.62 billion.  However, in 2022, this figure dropped to almost zero for obvious reasons. 

5. Exports of ore, slag and ash to the global market increased by USD 2.98 billion. 

(+77%) to USD 6.9 billion in 2021. USD in 2021. Price pressure in the iron ore markets 

prevents significant profits from the sale of this product. In 2022 and 2023, trade in these 

products decreased by 90%. In 2022, Ukraine received USD 2.9 billion for the sale of iron 

ore.  

6. Exports of wood and wood products in 2021 amounted to 5.8%. The situation in 

2022-2023 also affected this product, as the share of exports decreased significantly.  

An analysis of Ukraine's merchandise exports to the EU shows that most of these 

goods are not final products and are used for intermediate consumption. Accordingly, all 

these items do not create significant added value, and this confirms the current focus of 

Ukraine's exports on raw materials. 

Table 3 calculates Ukraine's share of Asian imports and the coefficient of relative 

comparative advantage of Ukrainian exports. Ukraine's main trading partners in Asia are 

China, India, Turkey (97% of the country's area is in Asia and 3% in Europe), Indonesia, and 

Saudi Arabia. In 2021, the shares of some commodity items changed. 

 

Table 3 

Share of exports from Ukraine to Asian countries and the coefficient of relative 

comparative advantage of Ukrainian exports in the Asian market 

Item code and name of the Ukraine's share in Asian CAij of Ukraine in the 



STRATEGIES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF INERNATIONAL TRADE IN UKRAINE 

 

258 
 

product imports, % Asian market, units. 

2020 2021 2022 2023 2020 2021 2022 2023 

10. Grain crops 24,33 18,56 6,7 6,5 3,87 4,25 2,56 1,46 

26. Ores, slag, and ash 15,3 8,30 0,54 0,34 2,32 2,9 1,25 1,15 

15. Fats and oils of animal or 

vegetable origin  
16,98 3,52 4,80 2,0 2,93 2,7 2,8 2,8 

14. Plant materials for the 

manufacture of wicker products  
0,001 0,003 0,2 0,2 4,12 2,42 3,14 2,14 

72. Ferrous metals 14,63 36,24 0,64 0,01 1,91 2,14 1,99 0,69 

12. Seeds and fruits of oil seeds  1,81 3,55 1,1 0,8 1,47 1,63 1,7 1,7 

23. Residues and waste from 

the food industry  
4,51 4,38 1,3 1,1 1,65 1,55 1,2 1,39 

44.  Wood and wood products 1,88 1,67 0,49 0,34 1,44 1,48 1,4 1,2 

02. Meat and edible offal  1,81 0,6 0,51 0,33 1,28 1,32 1,51 1,51 

11. Products of the flour and 

milling industry 
0,58 0,31 1,23 1,24 1,39 0,86 1,69 1,69 

28. Inorganic chemical products 0,623 1,675 0,03 0,8 0,82 0,77 0,68 0,68 

 

The following items account for the largest share of imports in the Asian market:  

1. Exports of ferrous metals amounted to 36.24% in 2021. In recent years, the share of 

ferrous metals in total exports of goods to the Asian market has increased 22 times. As can be 

seen from Table 3, Ukraine has currently reduced the exports of this item.  

2. The volume of grain exports in 2021 was 18.56%. In 2021, the turnover of trade in 

agri-food products between Ukraine and Asia increased by 22% compared to the previous 

year's figures for the corresponding period and reached $ 10.8 billion. At that time, the largest 

volumes of exports in the Asian direction were made to Pakistan, South Korea, Thailand, 

Israel, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Jordan, the Philippines, and Yemen. Among the largest 

consumers of barley in Asia are Saudi Arabia (70% of total exports), Turkey, Iran, and Israel. 

The high demand for barley in the Middle East is primarily due to its use for feed, including 

for camels in the Arabian Peninsula. The Asian market is the second-largest buyer of corn in 

Ukraine. In 2023, this figure decreased to 6.5%. 

3. The volume of trade in ore, slag, and ash in 2021 was 8.3%, and in 2022 and 2023 

this figure decreased significantly.  

4. Exports of food industry residues and waste in 2021 amounted to 4.38%. This group 

of exports includes waste and residues from starch production, beet pulp, soybean, sunflower, 

rapeseed, flax, beer production waste, etc. These residues and wastes are used in the 

production of animal feed, fertilizers, and as raw materials in chemistry and pharmaceuticals.  

5. The export volume of the item “Fats and oils of animal or vegetable origin" in 2021 

was 3.52%. During 2020-2021, there was a significant decrease in this indicator (from 

16.98% in 2020 to 3.52% in 2021). Comparing this indicator in 2022 and 2023 with the 

previous ones, there is a significant decrease.  

6. Exports of seeds and fruits of oil seeds were at 3.55% in 2021 and 2.1% in 2022. 

High economic growth rates and an increase in the population of middle-income Asians are 



Tetiana ZUBKO 

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leading to an increase in the consumption of food products of both plant and animal origin. 

This indicates the prospects for expanding the market for Ukrainian agricultural products 

(Official site of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, 2024). 

This analysis makes it possible to identify the shares of domestic export commodity 

groups that are currently sold in the EU and Asian markets, compare them with the values of 

relative comparative advantages, and identify the most priority commodity groups of 

Ukraine's exports to the EU and Asian markets.  

Given the war, Ukraine's export opportunities are severely limited.  

For developing economies, including Ukraine, low global commodity prices pose 

significant challenges. Under such conditions, global trade and investment will not grow. At 

the same time, as the share of middle-income people in Asia and North Africa increases, 

consumption of both plant and animal food will rise. This opens up significant prospects for 

expanding the market for domestic agricultural products. 

As of 2022, there have been many innovations in EU phytosanitary regulations. 

Ukraine has prospects for increasing the flow of agricultural products to the EU, only if it 

complies with them. Cooperation with China, which has simplified phytosanitary protocols 

for agricultural products, is also promising. Ukrainian farmers can export corn, soybeans, 

barley, and sunflower oil to China. It is necessary to expand the range of goods and services 

that can be supplied to this country. In addition to the Chinese market, the markets of Japan 

and South Korea are of great interest to Ukraine in the Southeast Asian region. Due to the 

practical unsuitability of their territories for growing grain, demand for agricultural products 

will be high. The prospects for Southeast Asia are complemented by the high potential for 

suppliers of oil seeds and fruits. 

The attack on Ukraine in February 2022 and Ukraine's focus on EU accession have led 

to a redistribution of export commodity groups, as well as to the emergence of challenges and 

benefits of the European integration process. Accordingly, the indicators for assessing it have 

changed. As of today, Ukraine's export opportunities are significantly limited. Comparing the 

state and opportunities for foreign trade in 2021 and 2023, it is clear that Ukraine's economy 

is only partially able to export commodity products. According to Forbes Ukraine magazine, 

in January-August 2023, Ukraine exported goods worth $24.5 billion, of which the budget 

received UAH 465.8 million as a result of export duties. Exporters received 15% less revenue 

compared to the same period in 2022 ($28.9 billion) and 41% less compared to $41.8 billion 

in the first eight months of 2021. The decline in revenue in 2023 is due to the fact that in 

January and February 2022, before the full-scale invasion of Russia, Ukrainian exports were 

record-breaking. Comparing the six-month period from March to August, exports in 2023 

grew by 2% compared to the same period in 2022 (Hvozdeva, 2023). 

The most important categories of goods from Ukraine in the first eight months of 2023 

are: 

 food ($14.6 billion) 

 Metals and metal products ($2.7 billion) 

 machinery, equipment, and transport ($2.1 billion). 

Exports of agricultural products are five times higher than exports of metallurgical 

goods, although for decades they have been quite equivalent channels for bringing foreign 

exchange earnings to Ukraine. 



STRATEGIES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF INERNATIONAL TRADE IN UKRAINE 

 

260 
 

Also, such commodity groups as mineral products, chemicals, and wood are 

insignificantly represented in exports. In fact, Ukraine is present on the export market as a 

country that trades in food. The other items listed above continue to decline, as most of the 

territory is either occupied or unable to function economically at the proper level. 

The situation can be improved by investments of friendly countries in innovations and 

development of Ukrainian industry, and the end of the war. 

 

CONCLUSIONS 

Ukraine's foreign trade has been dynamically reoriented toward European markets and 

new logistics routes, which has significantly eased the restrictions imposed by the aggressor's 

blockade of Black Sea ports. This was facilitated by the decisions of the EU and a number of 

other important trading partners to liberalize access for Ukrainian goods, as well as important 

decisions to improve the transportation of Ukrainian goods through the EU. Ukraine has 

taken influential steps to restart the work of its export credit agency.  

The main determinants of the negative impact on Ukraine's trade are: the war with 

Russia, lower prices on global commodity markets, the raw material orientation of our 

country's exports, the lack of political and economic reforms, the decline in the purchasing 

power of the population. And the epidemics that have accompanied our lives over the past 

decade. The redistribution of levers of influence in the global arena continues, which 

increases uncertainty and complicates any decision-making in the economy. Priority areas of 

action for Ukraine's foreign trade have been identified: accelerating reforms, increasing 

requests for financial and technical support from the EU, and strategic partnerships with non-

European countries. 

Ukraine should work in all the proposed areas, taking into account the advantages and 

challenges of each. The main direction is conditioned by the signing of the Association 

Agreement and involves continuing reforms and adjusting the provisions of the Agreement to 

correct the asymmetry of trade flows that has developed at this time. Changes in the 

Agreement will allow Ukraine to supply goods with more added value than raw materials to 

the world markets.  

Another direction is also already available in Ukraine through the Horizon Europe 

program and provides opportunities to increase the country's innovation potential and, 

accordingly, trade flows in the future. 

The article identifies the possibilities of realizing Ukraine's export potential in the EU 

and Asian markets by calculating relative comparative advantages by product groups. It is 

established that trade with the EU does not provide significant benefits for Ukraine, since 

most export items do not create sufficient added value. Accordingly, it is necessary to correct 

the deformation of the commodity structure of exports and imports from the EU. The study of 

the comparative advantages of Ukrainian exports in the Asian market identified those 

commodity groups that have prospects for development, such as plant materials, natural and 

artificial fur, ships, lead and lead products, meat and offal. These commodity groups have a 

slightly higher added value than those currently sold. The findings will be used to 

substantiate state policy to support national producers of higher value-added products in order 

to create conditions for the formation of new and joining existing global value chains, which 

should significantly increase the level of economic security of Ukraine's trade. 



Tetiana ZUBKO 

261 
 

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