ISSN: 2407-814X (p); 2527-9238 (e) 

AGRARIS: Journal of Agribusiness 
and Rural Development Research 

Vol. 8 No. 2 July-December 2022, 
Pages: 181-197 

Article history: 
Submitted : March 30th, 2021 
Revised : September 26th, 2022 
   January 24th, 2022 
Accepted : October 7th, 2022 

Imade Yoga Prasada1,*, Aura Dhamira2 
1 Study Program of Agribusiness, Faculty of Science and Technology, 

Universitas Putra Bangsa, Kebumen, Indonesia  
2 Agribusiness Department, Faculty of Agriculture, Universitas 

Pembangunan Nasional Veteran Yogyakarta, Indonesia 

 

*) Correspondence email: imade.yogap@gmail.com  

Non-Tariff Measures and Competitiveness of Indonesia’s Natural 
Rubber Export in Destination Countries 

DOI: https://doi.org/10.18196/agraris.v8i2.11392  

ABSTRACT 

In the last few decades, the implementation of tariff policies between countries 
has declined. As a result, the enforcement of non-tariff measures (NTMs) 
experiences an increase. Implementing NTMs raises a new obstacle to trade 
activities in the global market, including the trade of Indonesia’s natural rubber. 
Therefore, this study was conducted to determine the effect of enforcing NTMs 
on the export competitiveness of Indonesia’s natural rubber. This study utilized 
secondary data from UN COMTRADE on 1995 to 2019. The data was analyzed 
using frequency index, coverage ratio, comparative advantage, and two-stage least 
square regression model. The results revealed that India, China, and the USA 
enforced the most NTMs of Indonesia’s natural rubber. Additionally, the 
implementation of NTMs in importing countries positively correlated to the 
export competitiveness of Indonesia’s natural rubber in destination countries. 

Keywords: Competitiveness; Destination countries; Indonesia; Natural rubber; Non 
tariff measures 

INTRODUCTION 

Free trade and protectionism are still being debated (Yeo & Deng, 2019). Relatively 
established countries desire more open trade and are concerned about the emergence of new 
trade tariff policies. However, developing countries still want protectionist policies to be 
enforced to protect their domestic industries. Tariffs on international trade increase 
deadweight losses, thereby reducing social welfare (Amiti, Redding, & Weinstein, 2019). 
Conversely, reducing or eliminating tariffs can escalate the growth of domestic consumption 
and production factors (Phat & Hanh, 2019). 

For the last few decades, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has successfully 
negotiated a tariff reduction within its member countries. Through the formation of the 
General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) in 1947, the WTO continues to encourage 
free trade between member countries and reduce tariff barriers. In addition, the GATT seeks 
to liberate trade from quantitative restrictions and subsidies for various goods traded in the 
international market (Chin & Rusli, 2015). 

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182 AGRARIS: Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development Research 
Countries worldwide, especially WTO member countries, have begun eliminating tariff 

policies, including Indonesia. At the same time, implementing non-tariff measures (NTMs) to 
protect domestic producers experiences a rise (Jordaan, 2017; Ronen, 2017). NTMs refer to 
policy measures other than tariffs impacting international trade in goods (United Nations 
Conference on Trade and Development [UNCTAD], 2021). This impact takes the form of 
changes in the number of goods traded, the price of goods, or a combination of the two. 
NTMs can be categorized into Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS), Technical Barriers to Trade 
(TBT), Pre-shipment inspection (INSP), Contingent Trade Protective Measures (CTPM), 
Quantity control measures (QC), Price control measures (PC), Export-related measures (EXP), 
and other measures (UNCTAD, 2020).  

Implementing NTMs raises varied impacts on the export performance of a commodity. 
NTMs positively influence the export performance of Indonesia’s tuna commodity to several 
major export destination countries (Rindayati & Kristriana, 2018). Furthermore, 
implementing NTMs with the TBT type positively affected Indonesia’s natural rubber export 
in various destination countries (Virginia & Novianti, 2020). On the other hand, research on 
NTMs and the export performance of RCEP countries unveiled that the implementation of 
NTMs by importing countries reduced the export performance of the health sector 
(Zainuddin, Sarmidi, & Khalid, 2020). It is supported by a study concerning NTMs and the 
export performance of Indonesia’s fishery commodities, uncovering that NTMs harmed the 
export performance of these commodities (Permata & Handoyo, 2019). Moreover, research 
in Africa revealed that the application of NTMs by importing countries significantly reduced 
the volume of trade in agricultural products (Liu, Lin, Liu, & Li, 2019). 

As one of the largest natural rubber exporters, Indonesia faces the challenges of NTMs. 
Indonesia contributed a market share of 28.06% of world’s total natural rubber export in 
2019 (Trademap, 2021). Indonesia’s natural rubber export in the international market can be 
divided into several specifications: natural rubber latex, natural rubber smoked sheets (RSS), 
and technically specified natural rubber (TSNR). Respectively, each specification contributes 
1.22%, 2.30%, and 97.48% of the total export (Statistics Indonesia, 2019). The high export 
of Indonesia’s natural rubber demonstrates the potential to enhance this commodity’s 
competitiveness in the international market (Erkan & Yildirimci, 2015; Wiranthi & 
Mubarok, 2017).  

Furthermore, the efforts to enhance the export competitiveness of the natural rubber 
commodity should consider NTMs applied in the destination countries. The major export 
destination countries for Indonesia’s natural rubber commodity are the USA, Japan, China, 
India, and the Republic of Korea. These five countries have implemented NTMs for the 
natural rubber commodity with TSNR specifications. Accordingly, the imposition of NTMs 
by these countries can limit Indonesia’s natural rubber trade and affect the competitiveness 
of this commodity.  

Several studies investigated factors affecting to NTMs and the competitiveness of 
agricultural commodities. Several research which utilized the Ordinary Lease Square (OLS 
model) in Indonesia revealed that export competitiveness was influenced by productivity, the 

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183 Indonesia’s Natural Rubber Productivity and ….. (Prasada and Dhamira) 
export price of agricultural commodities, and trade openness (Sa'diyah & Darwanto, 2020; 
Yanita, Napitupulu, & Rahmah, 2019; Yulhar & Darwanto, 2019). Another study on 
Indonesia’s cocoa commodity analyzed using the ECM model discovered that the export 
competitiveness was affected by the exchange rate, the world price of cocoa, and the export 
duty (Hapsari & Yuniasih, 2020). In addition, another research uncovered that the export 
competitiveness of the rubber commodity was influenced by the implementation of NTMs, 
encompassing SPS, TBT, and quota policy (Purnomowati, Darwanto, Widodo, & Hartono, 
2015; Virginia & Novianti, 2020). Moreover, another study using the OLS model concluded 
that the application of NTMs was influenced by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 
dummy membership of the WTO (Chin & Rusli, 2015; Zhang, Sun, Gordon, & Munn, 
2020). 

Previous research analyzed the effect of NTMs on agricultural commodities’ volume and 
export value. Therefore, the effect on export competitiveness was unknown, especially for 
natural rubber. In addition, previous studies employed OLS and ECM models for the analysis. 
However, these models could not overcome the endogeneity problem in the variable of NTMs. 
Export competitiveness, in this case, was assessed using the RCA index, allegedly influenced 
by the application of NTMs. 

Furthermore, NTMs are influenced by an instrument variable of GDP and a dummy 
variable of WTO membership. Therefore, this study was conducted using the Two Stage Least 
Square (TSLS) model to fill the gaps that emerged from previous studies. This study aims to 
determine the effect of the imposition of NTMs by importing countries on the export 
competitiveness of Indonesia’s natural rubber commodity with TSNR specifications and 
identify the factors affecting the competitiveness of this commodity in five major export 
destination countries. 

RESEARCH METHOD 

 This study employed panel data that consisted of time series and cross-section data. The 
time series data were from 1995 to 2019. The cross-section data were sourced from five major 
export destination countries of Indonesia’s natural rubber commodity with TSNR 
specifications (HS code 400122), comprising the USA, Japan, China, India, and the Republic 
of Korea. These five countries were determined as the main destinations due to the high 
proportion of TSNR imports from Indonesia, as displayed in Table 1. 

TABLE 1. AVERAGE OF INDONESIA’S TSNR EXPORT IN FIVE DESTINATION COUNTRIES FROM 1995 TO 2019 

Country Import Quantity (tonnes) Share of Import (%) Rank 
USA 563,296.83 31.24 1 
Japan 230,688.45 12.79 2 
China 191,344.34 10.61 3 
Republic of Korea 93,075.35 5.16 4 
India 75,325.12 4.18 5 
Indonesia’s Total Export 1,803,041.23 100.00  

The variables in this study comprised revealed comparative advantage (RCA), real GDP 
at a constant price of importing countries (GDP), Indonesia’s real exchange rate (RER), the 

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184 AGRARIS: Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development Research 
dummy of WTO membership, and the number of NTMs of the natural rubber commodity 
imposed by importing countries. The data were gathered from UN COMTRADE, UNCTAD, 

and the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. RCA refers to a comparison between the export 
share of a commodity from a country to the share of commodity export in the world market 

(Muzayyin, Masyhuri, Darwanto, & Junaidi, 2019). Formula 1 was used to calculate RCA 
(Balassa, 1965). 

RCAij ̇= 
Xij/Xt
Wij/Wt

              (1) 

𝑅𝐶𝐴𝑖�̇� is revealed comparative advantage of product j produced by country i. 𝑋𝑖𝑗 

represents the country i’s export value of product j to the destination country. 𝑋𝑡 implies the 

country i’s total export value to the destination country. 𝑊𝑖𝑗 refers to the world export value 

of product j. 𝑊𝑡 signifies the total world export value. The RCA lies in the interval between 0 

and positive infinity (0≤RCA≤+∞) (Hailay, 2017; Jagdambe, 2019). The RCA can be grouped 

into four categories (Erkan & Saricoban, 2014): (1) no comparative advantage (0<RCA≤1), (2) 

weak comparative advantage (1<RCA≤2), (3) moderate comparative advantage (2<RCA≤4), 

and (4) strong comparative advantage (4<RCA). In addition, Indonesia’s real exchange rate 
was determined using the following formula. 

RER=NER×
CPIi

CPIIndonesia
             (2) 

RER refers to Indonesia’s real exchange rate (IDR/USD). NER represents Indonesia’s 

nominal exchange rate (IDR/USD). CPIi signifies the consumer price index in country i. 
Meanwhile, CPIIndonesia is the Indonesian consumer price index. 

Moreover, the frequency index could be utilized to determine the percentage of the 
import transaction concerning NTMs of the exporting country. In other words, the frequency 
ratio could determine the percentage of product k applying one or more NTMs. The higher 
frequency indexes will affect more NTMs forced by importing countries on Indonesia’s 
natural rubber commodity and conversely. The following formula was employed for 
calculating the frequency index (Disdier & Fugazza, 2019): 

Fj=[∑ DiMii ∑ Mii⁄ ]             (3) 

𝐹𝑗 is the frequency index of NTMs imposed by country j. 𝐷𝑖 illustrates a dummy variable 

reflecting one or more NTMs on product i; 1 if a country imposes one or more NTMs and 0 
if otherwise. 𝑀𝑖 represents a dummy variable indicating whether there are imports of product 
i. Furthermore, the trade value for Indonesia’s TSNR subject to NTMs in an importing 
country can be seen from the coverage ratio. The coverage ratio can demonstrate the reach of 
NTMs and their importance for imported goods (Zainuddin et al., 2020). The coverage ratio 
was examined using the following formula (Disdier & Fugazza, 2019). 

Cj=[∑ DiVii ∑ Vii⁄ ]             (4) 

𝐶𝑗 is the coverage ratio of NTMs applied in country j. 𝐷𝑖 is defined like before. 𝑉𝑖 

indicates the import value of product i. The higher coverage ratio value signifies that 

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185 Indonesia’s Natural Rubber Productivity and ….. (Prasada and Dhamira) 
Indonesia’s natural rubber commodity is getting bigger, affected by NTMs in importing 
countries (Virginia & Novianti, 2020; Zainuddin et al., 2020). 

After collecting all data, it was necessary to pay attention to the nature of time series 
data. Time series data could generate bias due to not stationary data over time (Prasada, 
Dhamira, & Nugroho, 2021). Therefore, before performing data analysis, a stationarity test 
on the panel data should be run using Levin-Lin-Chu (LLC) unit root test (Prasada, Dhamira, 
& Nugroho, 2022). As Table 2 exhibits, the stationarity test revealed that the variables of 
RCA, real GDP at a constant price, and NTMs were significant at the first difference stage, 
while Indonesia’s real exchange rate (RER) was significant at the level stage. 

TABLE 2. STATIONARITY TEST 

Variable Stage LLC Statistic Prob. Information 
RCA 1st Difference -5.505 0.000 Stationary 
RER Level -1.296 0.098 Stationary 
GDP 1st Difference -3.240 0.001 Stationary 

NTMs 1st Difference -3.535 0.000 Stationary 

  Note: RCA = Revealed comparative advantage;  
  RER = Indonesia’s real exchange rate toward USD;  
  GDP = Real GDP at constants price; NTMs = Number of NTMs imposed 

After obtaining stationary data over time, the regression analysis was carried out 
properly. This study employed a two-stage least square (TSLS) regression model. This 
regression model can be applied when the variable possesses endogeneity problems, in this 
case, NTMs. The variable of NTMs was expected to influence the competitiveness of 
Indonesia’s natural rubber export. However, at the same time, this variable was influenced by 
other variables: the real GDP at a constant price and WTO membership. Therefore, the 
variables of the real GDP at a constant price and WTO membership affecting NTMs were 
modeled, which then NTMs influenced the competitiveness of Indonesia’s rubber export. 

A single equation was unable to solve the relationship between these variables. 
Nevertheless, simultaneous equations using the TSLS model could solve it (Greene, 2002). 
The first-stage regression models are written as Formula 5. 

NTMsi
t=γ0+γ1GDPi

t+γ2WTO+u             (5) 

While, the second-stage regression models are written as the Formula 6. 

 RCAi
t=β

0
+β

1
RERi

t+β
2
NTMsi

t+v                        (6) 

Where RCAi
t is Revealed comparative advantage for country i in year t; NTMsi

t represents the 
number of NTMs imposed by country i in year t; GDPi

t shows the real GDP at a constant price 
for country i in year t (Millions USD); WTO is the dummy of WTO membership (1=Member; 
0=Non member); and RERi

t shows Indonesia’s real exchange rate toward USD for country i in year 
t (IDR/USD). 

The model in this study was compiled based on various previous studies. Research on 
forest products using the OLS method disclosed that NTMs influenced a country’s GDP and 
WTO membership status (Chin & Rusli, 2015; Zhang et al., 2020). However, other studies 

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revealed that NTMs and a country’s real exchange rate affected RCA (Hapsari & Yuniasih, 
2020; Purnomowati et al., 2015; Virginia & Novianti, 2020). 

This study modeled that NTMs were influenced by the equation’s GDP and WTO 
membership status. This modeling was based on several theories on economic globalization 
and international trade. Adam Smith stated that when a country has an absolute advantage 
(can produce a product more efficiently) over another country but at the same time has an 
absolute disadvantage (not more efficient than other countries) in producing other products, 
then the two countries will benefit each other when exchanging their products (Salvatore, 
2013). It only happens if there is minimum government intervention in the economic system 
(a laissez-faire policy) (Nugroho, Bhagat, Magda, & Lakner, 2021). 

The facts indicate that government intervention in the economic system is substantial 
in both developed and developing countries. Developed countries tend to apply restrictive 
non-tariff policies. Conversely, developing countries have a tendency to impose tariff policies. 
The implementation of non-tariff policies by high-income countries has increased more 
rapidly than in upper-middle-income, lower-middle-income, and low-income countries (Niu, 
Liu, Gunessee, & Milner, 2018). Scholte (2005) revealed that developed countries tend to 
state ambiguous policies; on the one hand, they claim to encourage world trade liberalization, 
but on the other hand, they also establish protective policies to protect their domestic 
industries. Furthermore, trade policies between countries are also interfered with by the 
WTO, where WTO membership consists of both developed and developing countries. The 
policies established by the WTO are likely to favor developed countries, causing them to have 
failed to integrate the interests of developing countries in developing an ideal trading system 
(Ukpe & Khorana, 2021).      

The analysis using the TSLS model generated an R2 value of 0.66, meaning that the 
independent variables could explain 66% of the variation in the dependent variable in the 
model. The TSLS model in this study was valid with an F-statistic value of 37.36 and 
significant at a 1% alpha level. The endogeneity test yielded a significant value at 1% alpha, 
indicating that the variable of NTMs was endogenous. Furthermore, the Anderson canon. 
corr. LM test was also significant at a 1% alpha level. Meanwhile, the Sargan test was 
insignificant at the same alpha level, implying that the model could be precisely identified. In 
addition, the Stock-Yogo test unveiled an eigenvalue statistic of 80.36. It was higher than the 
2SLS Wald test at 5% (19.93), confirming that the GDP and WTO were strong instrumental 
variables. 

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 

Figure 1a displays Indonesia’s natural rubber export to the USA, reaching an annual 
average of 0.57 million tonnes from 1995 to 2019. Figure 1b exhibits that, during the same 
period, the average export of Indonesia’s natural rubber to Japan reached 0.27 million tonnes 
per year. It was higher than Indonesia’s natural rubber export to China, which averaged 0.23 
million tonnes yearly, as illustrated in Figure 1c. As demonstrated in Figures 1d and 1e, the 

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187 Indonesia’s Natural Rubber Productivity and ….. (Prasada and Dhamira) 
Republic of Korea and India could absorb an annual average of 0.11 million and 0.07 million 
tonnes of Indonesia’s natural rubber, respectively. 

Indonesia is one of the leading exporters of natural rubber to these five countries. It was 
recorded that Indonesia’s natural rubber export to the USA contributed 73.11% of its total 
demand. Moreover, Indonesia’s natural rubber export to Japan met 66.16% of its total 
demand. Subsequently, Indonesia’s natural rubber contributed 74.57% of India’s total 
demand for this commodity. Similarly, Indonesia’s natural rubber commodity could meet the 
demand in China and the Republic of Korea by 26.82% and 46.14%. The high contribution 
of Indonesia’s natural rubber demonstrated significant potential to increase its 
competitiveness in central destination countries. It is closely related to the penetration and 
expansion of Indonesia’s rubber commodity in these five countries (Cvetković & Petrovic-
Randelovic, 2017; Yulhar & Darwanto, 2019). The high volume of Indonesia’s natural rubber 
export depicted its high capacity for producing this commodity. 

Indonesia’s natural rubber export in various central destination countries also 
fluctuated considerably. The export volume of Indonesia’s natural rubber to the USA 
fluctuated with a positive trend following the demand for this commodity. The USA’s lowest 
demand for natural rubber occurred in 2009, at only 0.55 million tonnes. Simultaneously, 
Indonesia’s export to the USA reached 0.38 million tonnes, as illustrated in Figure 1a. This 
export volume met 69.38% of the USA’s total demand for natural rubber. Within this period, 
the RCA of Indonesia’s natural rubber export to the USA reached 85.61, slightly lower than 
the average export competitiveness from 1995 to 2018, which was 94.90. The export 
competitiveness of Indonesia’s natural rubber commodity in the USA fell into the category of 
strong competitiveness, with an average RCA value of greater than 4. 

As Figure 1b displays, Indonesia’s natural rubber export to Japan depicted a positive 
trend, signifying an annual export increase. Indonesia’s natural rubber export to China, India, 
and the Republic of Korea also exhibited the same trend. Figure 1c illustrates that Indonesia’s 
natural rubber export to China increased by 0.02 million tonnes yearly. Meanwhile, Figure 
1d demonstrates an annual export increase of 0.01 million tonnes in India. On the other 
hand, as portrayed in Figure 1e, Indonesia’s natural rubber export to the Republic of Korea 
relatively increased by 0.001 million tonnes per year. The high volume of Indonesia’s natural 
rubber export to Japan, China, India, and the Republic of Korea boosted the export 
competitiveness of this commodity. The export competitiveness of Indonesia’s natural rubber 
reached an average of 18.08 in Japan and 18.70 in the Republic of Korea. Furthermore, the 
export competitiveness of Indonesia’s natural rubber to India and China acquired average 
RCA values of 29.89 and 21.98. The RCA value in each destination country was greater than 
4, implying strong competitiveness in Indonesia’s natural rubber export performance. 

Despite having strong competitiveness, RCA tended to decline in the USA and China. 
The RCA for Indonesia’s natural rubber export to the USA generated a negative trend, 
signifying an annual export decline of 0.15. Similarly, the RCA in China also demonstrated 
a relative decline of 0.47 yearly. The decline in these two countries was driven by their 
prolonged trade war. The trade war between these two countries caused a decline in demand 

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188 AGRARIS: Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development Research 
for natural rubber due to slowing global production and international trade (Iqbal, Elianda, 
Akbar, & Nurhadiyanti, 2020; Kapustina, Lipková, Silin, & Drevalev, 2020). Accordingly, it 
forced Indonesia to diversify the natural rubber market to other countries to reduce the trade 
war’s negative impact on the economy and the performance of natural rubber export 
(Taufikurahman & Firdaus, 2019; Wangke, 2020). This export market diversification led to 
a decline in the share of Indonesia’s natural rubber in China and the USA, resulting in a 
relative decline in the competitiveness of Indonesia’s natural rubber export. 

  
(a) (b) 

  
(c) (d) 

 

 

(e)  
FIGURE 1. (A) INDONESIA’S TSNR EXPORT VOLUME VS RCA IN THE USA; (B) INDONESIA’S TSNR EXPORT VOLUME VS RCA IN JAPAN; (C) 

INDONESIA’S TSNR EXPORT VOLUME VS RCA IN CHINA; (D) INDONESIA’S TSNR EXPORT VOLUME VS RCA IN INDIA; (E) INDONESIA’S TSNR 
EXPORT VOLUME VS RCA IN THE REPUBLIC OF KOREA 

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189 Indonesia’s Natural Rubber Productivity and ….. (Prasada and Dhamira) 
Increasing the export competitiveness of Indonesia’s natural rubber in various major 

destination countries was inseparable from tariff and non-tariff barriers. Relative tariff barriers 
have decreased, but non-tariff barriers have increased with the emergence of NTMs. These 
NTMs are applied to various commodities marketed in the international market, including 
vegetables, animal products, and natural rubber. Natural rubber commodity has experienced 
the implementation of NTMs in multilateral or bilateral agreements between Indonesia and 
importing countries.  

The analysis revealed that India imposed the most NTMs, with a frequency index of 
78.67%, as displayed in Figure 2. NTMs implemented by India for Indonesia’s natural rubber 
products included sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures, technical barriers to trade 
(TBT), and export-related measures. In addition, the USA and China also employed many 
NTMs to Indonesia’s natural rubber commodity, with a frequency index of 72.80% and 
65.71%, respectively. The Republic of Korea and Japan utilized fewer NTMs on Indonesia’s 
rubber commodity, with the lowest frequency index value. 

 
FIGURE 2. FREQUENCY INDEX AND COVERAGE RATIO OF INDONESIA’S TSNR COMMODITY IN DESTINATION COUNTRIES 

The coverage ratio from the largest to the smallest were demonstrated sequentially by 
India, China, the USA, the Republic of Korea, and Japan. The order was slightly different 
from the frequency index,  sequentially starting from India, the USA, China, Japan, and the 
Republic of Korea. The coverage ratio greater than the frequency index implied that NTMs 
by importing countries significantly affected the export of Indonesia’s natural rubber 
commodity (Gourdon, 2014). China’s frequency index was smaller than the USA’s. However, 
China’s coverage ratio was more significant than the USA’s, meaning that the NTMs in China 
had an enormous impact on Indonesia’s natural rubber export than the NTMs imposed by 
the USA. China has implemented NTMs in all classifications, from SPS, and TBT, to export-
related measures, generating tighter NTMs and impacting the performance of Indonesia’s 
natural rubber export. The same happened to Japan and the Republic of Korea’s frequency 

79.91

28.72

90.83
94.13

29.72

72.80

22.67

65.71

78.67

21.00

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

USA Japan China India Republic of Korea

Coverage Ratio Frequency Index

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190 AGRARIS: Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development Research 
index and coverage ratio. The coverage ratio of the Republic of Korea was more considerable 
than Japan’s. However, it had a lower frequency index than Japan. This result was driven by 
more classifications of NTMs implemented by the Republic of Korea, tightening trade. These 
results are consistent with research conducted in Europe, America, Asia, and Africa, revealing 
an increase in the use of NTMs as protective measures for domestic products (Niu et al., 2018). 
In addition, research on the agri-food trade between the US and EU discovered that removing 
NTMs could loosen and expand trade by 11.6 billion dollars (Arita et al., 2017). 

TABLE 3. FACTORS AFFECTING THE COMPETITIVENESS OF INDONESIA’S NATURAL RUBBER IN DESTINATION COUNTRIES 

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob 

First-stage regression: 
Dependent variable of NTMs         
GDP  2.19E-06*** 1.76E-07 12.48 0.00 
WTO  4.41ns 3.79 1.16 0.25 
RER -7.43E-04*** 1.02E-04 -7.29 0.00 
Cons.  1.59ns 3.94 0.40 0.69 

Second-stage regression: 
Dependent variable of RCA         
RER  2.19E-03*** 2.64E-04 8.30 0.00 
NTMs  0.82*** 0.24 3.46 0.00 
Cons. -8.91ns 5.85 -1.52 0.13 

R2 =0.66    
F-statistic =37.36    
Anderson canon. corr. LM test =71.31    
Sargan test =0.07    
Stock-Yogo test =80.36    
Endogeneity test =27.96      

   Where: *** Significant at 1 percent alpha; ns Not significant 
   Note: RCA = Revealed comparative advantage; GDP = Real GDP at the constant price; WTO = Dummy of WTO   

membership; RER = Indonesia’s real exchange rate toward USD; NTMs = Number of NTMs imposed. 

Furthermore, the impact of implementing NTMs was modeled in a structural equation 
system on the export competitiveness of Indonesia’s natural rubber in the major destination 
countries. The analysis unveiled that the number of NTMs imposed by the importing 
countries on Indonesia’s natural rubber was influenced by the real GDP at a constant price in 
each country, as described in Table 3. The GDP variable was significant at the level of 1% 
with a positive regression coefficient, illustrating that since higher real GDP of a country will 
increase the number of implemented NTMs. High-income countries tend to use NTMs in 
commodity trading (Heal & Palmioli, 2015) due to their incredible and efficient market forces 
(Chin & Rusli, 2015). In addition, high-income countries do not have as much dependence 
on international trade as low-income countries, making them more effective in implementing 
NTMs to gain more benefits. Research related to trade in the wine commodity uncovered that 
developed countries with higher GDP than developing countries tended to implement more 
product-specific NTMs, triggering the emergence of a non-transparent trading environment 
(Santeramo, Lamonaca, Nardone, & Seccia, 2019). In addition, developed countries often 
play a role as policymakers of restrictive policies on international trade in agricultural 

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191 Indonesia’s Natural Rubber Productivity and ….. (Prasada and Dhamira) 
products, while developing countries play a role as policy takers of these policies (Santeramo 
& Lamonaca, 2022). It caused the implementation of NTMs to be preferred by developed 
countries. 

As described in Table 3, the TSLS analysis revealed that the real exchange rate (RER) 
variable significantly affected the competitiveness of Indonesia’s natural rubber export at the  
level of 1%. The positive RER coefficient indicated that as higher RER would increase 

Indonesia’s rubber competitiveness. A higher RER implied the depreciation of IDR against 

USD, causing the price of Indonesia’s natural rubber in the destination country to be relatively 
lower and increasing export competitiveness. The commodity price influenced a consumer’s 
purchase intention (Wong & Zeng, 2015). In addition to RER, the NTMs variable was 
significant at the level of 1% and showed a positive regression coefficient. The value meant 
that an increase in NTMs by importing countries boosted the export competitiveness of 

Indonesia’s natural rubber. In other words, importer countries’ implementation of NTMs 

provided an opportunity to increase the competitiveness of Indonesia’s rubber export. NTMs 
mainly imposed by importing countries for the natural rubber commodity were SPS and TBT.  

Indonesia currently applies a natural rubber standardization system of TSNR 
specifications as stated in SNI 1903 (Indonesian Rubber Standard) since 2000, amended by 
the National Standardization Agency (known as Badan Standarisasi Nasional in Indonesian 
or BSN) in 2011 (Virginia & Novianti, 2020). SNI 1903 refers to ISO standards to ascertain 
that Indonesia’s natural rubber quality meets the appropriate international natural rubber 
standards. The ability of Indonesia to maintain and improve natural rubber quality will 
enhance its export competitiveness. These results are consistent with research on the wine 
trade in 24 countries, which revealed that NTMs increased imports of bottled wine of 
importer countries (Santeramo et al., 2019). Other research discovered that the 
implementation of NTMs in importer countries positively affected the quality of products of 
exporter countries. This quality improvement was driven by “coercion” to meet all product 
requirements specified in NTMs (Cipollina & Demaria, 2020; Santeramo & Lamonaca, 
2022). 

Indonesia is well-prepared to face non-tariff barriers than its primary competitor, 
Thailand. The standardization of natural rubber in Thailand only to be explored in 2013. In 
this phase, Thailand did not apply a standard for testing natural rubber (Thailand Productivity 
Institute, 2013). Nevertheless, Thailand’s natural rubber productivity increased annually, and 
causes the country as world’s leading natural rubber exporter. In contrast to Indonesia, 
although it applies internationally recognized standardization of natural rubber, its natural 
rubber productivity was relatively lower than in Thailand. The productivity of Thailand’s 
natural rubber was double of Indonesia’s. The average of Indonesia’s natural rubber 
productivity from 1995 to 2019 was 7,961.20 hectogram per hectare, while the average 
productivity of Thailand’s natural rubber in the same period reached 15,836.80 
hectogram/hectare (Food and Agriculture Organization, 2021). Several reasons underlay the 
low productivity of natural rubber in Indonesia, such as the low quality of seeds and 
coagulants as well as the low use of fertilizers and stimulants in cultivating rubber plants 

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192 AGRARIS: Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development Research 
(Springfield Centre, 2020). Maintaining and improving the quality of Indonesia's natural 
rubber and raising productivity by utilizing certified superior rubber clones was essential to 
reclaiming the export share of natural rubber in the world by exporter countries. Moreover, 
applying high-quality coagulants, fertilizers and stimulants contributed to increase the 
productivity and quality of natural rubber. 

Following the analysis results, the Indonesian government is suggested to implement 
several policies to increase the export of natural rubber in the major destination countries. 
Firstly, Indonesia should maintain the exchange rate of IDR against USD at a low level. So, 
Indonesian natural rubber products in the major destination countries are more favorable 
than other exporters’ natural rubber products (Husaini & Lean, 2021; Kayamo, 2021). 
Additionally, Indonesia should be more adaptive in implementing restrictive trade policies. 
Hence, natural rubber products exported could meet the requirements set by the importing 
countries. The fulfillment of these various requirements could boost the competitiveness of 
Indonesian natural rubber products in the central destination countries (Bashir, Khwaja, 
Rashid, Turi, & Waheed, 2020; Ha, 2021; Nekmahmud & Fekete-Farkas, 2020). Indeed, 
fulfilling these trade conditions has become a strategic step Indonesia take to overcome trade 
barriers from importing countries (Prasada, Nugroho, & Lakner, 2022). 

CONCLUSION 

Indonesia’s natural rubber export to the major destination countries is categorized as 
strongly competitive. This competitiveness was influenced by the number of NTMs imposed 
by importer countries. At the same time, NTMs was influenced by the real GDP. The number 
of NTMs positively affected to export competitiveness of natural rubber. Indonesia has been 
well-prepared to face non-tariff barriers by implementating the SNI 1903 on Standard 
Indonesian Rubber than its competitors. However, Indonesia faced the challenge of low 
productivity. The productivity of Indonesia’s natural rubber should be escalated by utilizing 
certified superior seeds, high-quality coagulants, fertilizers, and stimulants suitable for rubber 
plants. In addition, the export of Indonesian natural rubber to major destination countries 
should be enhanced by implementing a strategy to maintain the IDR exchange rate against 
the USD in a favorable position for increasing export. Furthermore, Indonesia’s export 
competitiveness could be improved by increasing its adaptability to restrictive trade policies. 
This adaptability could be demonstrated by the fast and precise fulfillment of various 
requirements set by the importer countries. 

Authors’ contribution: I.Y.P served as a conceptor, data analysis, data interpretation, and 
writing the manuscript; A.D. performing as data seekers, tabulating data, writing manuscript, 
and reviewing final manuscript. 

Conflict of interest: The authors have no conflicts of interest to disclose and have all approved 
this submission. This research received no external funding. 

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193 Indonesia’s Natural Rubber Productivity and ….. (Prasada and Dhamira) 
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