Imade Yoga Prasada*, Masyhuri 
Program Studi Ekonomi Pertanian, Fakultas Pertanian Universitas Gadjah 
Mada, Indonesia 
  
*) Email korespondensi: imade.yogap@gmail.com 

AGRARIS: Journal of Agribusiness and 
Rural Development Research 

Vol. 5 No. 2 Juli-Desember 2019 

The Conversion of Agricultural Land in 
Urban Areas (Case Study of Pekalongan City, 
Central Java) 

 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18196/agr.5280 

ABSTRACT 
Agricultural land in urban areas has a 
strategic role as a provider of food for 
city resident, as well as supporting the 
environment of the urban area. The 
important role of the existence of 
agricultural land in urban areas over the 
past few decades faces a serious threat, 
namely the occurrence of agricultural 
land conversion. Therefore, this 
research was carried out with the aim 
to analyze the trend of agricultural land 
conversion in urban areas and to find 
out the factors that influence the 
agricultural land conversion in 
Pekalongan City. The data used in this 
study were secondary data sourced 
from the Central Statistics Agency of 
Pekalongan City. Data were analyzed 
using trend model analysis and tobit 
models. The results showed that the 
trend of agricultural land conversion in 
Pekalongan City was positive, so there 
was a tendency for the agricultural land 
conversion to increase from year to 
year. The factors that influence the area 
of agricultural land conversion in 
Pekalongan City were the real price of  
paddy at the farmer level and paddy 
productivity. Both of these factors have 
a negative sign, it shows that an 
increase in real prices of paddy and 
paddy productivity could reduce the 
agricultural land conversion in 
Pekalongan City. 
 
Keywords: Agricultural Land Conversion, 
Cities, Pekalongan City, Tobit, Trend 

 

INTRODUCTION 
Urban areas are a type of region that has characteristics with 

high economic growth rates and large population growth rates. In 
addition, urban areas will be very identical with the emergence of 
urbanization in the rural areas towards urban areas. Urban areas in 
general will consist of two regions, namely the centre of city areas and 
sub-urban areas. The centre of the city area inclined to have 
characteristics such as high industrial activities, trade, and other 
commercial activities. On the contrary, sub-urban areas tend to be 
regions that have high economic contribution from the agricultural 
sector. Sub-urban areas become areas that support the centre of city 
area. The sub-urban areas become the centre of agricultural production 
that fulfil the food needs of the people in the centre of city 
(Didomenica & Gordon, 2016; Rezai, Shamsudin, & Mohamed, 
2016). Moreover, in order to meet the food needs of the community, 
there are several other roles possessed by the existence of agricultural 
land on the outskirts of the city. Those contributions of agricultural 
land included a buffer zone for pollution that occurs in the centre of 
city, decomposition of organic waste, rainwater catchment areas, flood 
control sites and life support environmental ecosystem (biodiversity) 
(Jamal & Mortez, 2014; Ramzi et al., 2017). 

Even though agricultural land has a very important role to 
the community of urban area, there is no guarantee that the 
agricultural land on the outskirts of the city will remain available 
in the future. In fact, urban areas are the regions that have very 
high rates of agricultural land conversion. This was triggered by the 
increasing economic activity of the non-agricultural sector in urban 
areas which caused the demand for land from the non -agricultural 
sector increase. In addition, the high flow of urbani zation in urban 
areas has contributed to increasing the rate of population growth  



 
 

 

113 
Vol.5 No.2 Juli-Desember 2019 

in urban areas and triggering an increase in demand 
for land for settlements or housing. Therefore, the 
sustainability of agricultural land will be increasingly 
threatened and it simultaneously threaten the loss of 
various strategic roles of the existence of agricultural 
land in urban areas. 

Research related to the conversion of 
agricultural land has been carried out in various 
regions in Indonesia. Research in South Minahasa 
Regency shows that the conversion of agricultural land 
in the region is influenced by the per capita Gross 
Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) (Lagarense et al., 
2015). These results were obtained using multiple 
linear regression methods. Furthermore, other studies 
were also conducted in Jember Regency. The results of 
the research show that the conversion of agricultural 
land in Jember Regency is influenced by the factors of 
the age of the farmer and the productivity of the 
cultivated land (D. E. Putra & Ismail, 2017). The 
results of the study were conducted using logistic 
regression methods with primary data. Research in 
Lamongan Regency shows that the conversion of 
agricultural land can occur due to the influence of the 
ratio of land price ratio to regional accessibility ratio 
and the results obtained using the GWR analysis 
method (Geographically Weighted Regression) 
(Kurniasari & Ariastita, 2014).  

Over the past few years, the conversion of 
agricultural land has become a threat to the 
sustainability of agricultural land in various regions in 
Indonesia, especially in the urban areas. Theoretically, 
the sustainability of agricultural land in urban areas 
faces the threat of land use change caused by the 
occurrence of urban sprawl activities or urban 
expansion (Sudirman, 2012). The occurrence of urban 
sprawl will urge changes in the function of land that 
has low land rent to be another function that has a 
high land rent value in urban areas. Agricultural land 
is one of the uses of land that has a low land rent, so 
the conversion of agricultural land will threaten this 
land use. Therefore, this study aim to analyze the 
factors that affect agricultural land conversion that 
occur in urban areas by using case studies in the 
research area in Pekalongan City. This research 
belongs to the new research category because research 

related to agricultural land conversion in urban areas 
are still rarely conducted. In addition, this study uses 
the tobit analysis method, an analysis that allows the 
use of latent variables in the analysis model. This 
study also uses independent variables in the form of 
real paddy prices, number of industries, non-
agricultural sector GRDP per capita, road length, rice 
productivity, and population, so that it is expected to 
provide more accurate results related to factors that 
affect agricultural land conversion in Pekalongan City. 
The purpose of this study was to 1) determine the 
development of agricultural land conversion that 
occurred in Pekalongan City, 2) determine the factors 
that influence the conversion of agricultural land in 
Pekalongan City. 

METHODS 

This research using secondary data sourced 
from the Central Statistics Agency of Pekalongan City 
in the period 1989 to 2017. The data used in this 
study were data on agricultural land area in 
Pekalongan City, agricultural land conversion data, 
real paddy prices in farmer level, number of 
industries, GRDP in the non-agricultural sector per 
capita, road length, paddy productivity, and 
population in Pekalongan City. Pekalongan City was 
chosen as the location of the study carried out by 
using a purposive sampling method because 
Pekalongan City is a city on Java Island which has the 
largest proportion of agricultural land area compared 
to other cities in Java. 

 Data were analyzed using a trend analysis tool 
to answer the first purpose, that was knowing the 
development of the agricultural land conversion in 
Pekalongan City. Trend analysis used to be able to 
know clearly the development of agricultural land 
conversion in Pekalongan City, both up and down in 
the long run. Trend analysis can be used to conduct 
analysis on data that tends to have a relatively long 
time series, so that trend analysis can provide the right 
results (Veno & Syamsudin, 2016). The trend 
equation model can be seen as follows: 

Y= a + bX 



 

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AGRARIS: Journal of Agribusiness 

and Rural Development Research 

Where Y is the agricultural land conversion 
areas (hectares) and X is time variable (years). 

 The second objective, that was to find out the 
factors that influence the conversion of agricultural 
land in Pekalongan City, it was done using the tobit 
regression analysis model. Tobit regression is carried 
out in this study because of the special characteristics 
of the data used in the research, namely the 
dependent variable of the data used has latent 
variables or unobserved variables, so it was zero values 
(Wooldridge, 2016). In general, the tobit model can 
be written using the following equation: 

Yi
* = βXi + εi, i = 1, 2, …, N 

Yi= Yi
* if Yi

* > 0 
Yi= 0 if Yi

* ≤ 0 

Where Yi was the dependent variable 
measured by using the Yi* latent variable which has a 
positive value, and is censored if it is the opposite. β 
was a vector of predictable parameters. Xiwas a vector 
of independent variables. εi is an error term that was 
normally distributed and N was the number of 
observations (Liu, Zhang, & Fu, 2017). Based on this 
theory, in this study the tobit model used was as 
follows: 

 
ALC = β0+β1X1+β2X2+β3X3+β4X4+β5X5+β6X6+ +εi 

 
Where ALC is the dependent variable of the 

agricultural land conversion areas (hectares), X1 is the 
real paddy price at farmer level (Rp), X2 is the number 
of industries (units), X3 is the non-agricultural sector 
per capita GRDP variable (Rp), X4 is the variable 
length of road (Km), X5 is a variable of paddy 
productivity, and X6 is a variable in the number of 
population in Pekalongan City (person). βi (i = 1, 2, 3, 
..., 6) is the parameter of the regression result of tobit 

and εi is the error term. 

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 

THE DEVELOPMENT OF AGRICULTURAL 
LAND CONVERSION IN PEKALONGAN CITY 

The urban sprawl phenomenon which also 
known as the expansion of the urban area, has led to 
the city developing into the suburbs. The expansion of 

the city area has an impact on increasing land 
requirements to transform into urban areas, thus it 
trigger some function of land to be sacrificed to meet 
those needs. The area of land in a region is basically 
permanent over time. This gives the consequence that 
the area of land will tend to be very difficult to add 
and very unlikely to decrease, but it will be very 
possible to alterits function. Therefore, land use in a 
region has a tendency to be dynamic. The utilization 
of a type of land can cause a trade-off in the use of 
land (Ghazouani, 2013). This trade-off on land use 
will occur when a type of land can be used for a 
variety of different functions, for example, a type of 
land can be used to build a settlement or can also be 
used for farming activities of plantation crops. If the 
land is used for residential land, then the land cannot 
be used for plantation activities. Otherwise, when the 
land is used for plantation crops, the consequence is 
that the land cannot be used as residential land. This 
trade-off on land use will always occur, and utilization 
decisions from the land will depend on the land rent 
value of each type of use that is possible. Land use 
which has the highest land rent value that will be 
chosen as the best land use decision (Daulay et al., 
2016; Sumarga & Hein, 2016). 

Urban sprawl in urban areas has led to the 
emergence of trade-offs on land use (D. R. Putra & 
Pradoto, 2016; Suprajaka & Fitria, 2012). Suburban 
areas that are identical to the land used as agricultural 
land will experience trade-offs with other uses with 
regard to the presence of urban sprawl like the 
commercial sector, both industrial activities and trade 
activities, or for the development of residential areas. 
When the land used for agricultural activities is 
thought to have lower land rent than other types of 
use, the impact that will occur is the conversion of 
agricultural land into non-agricultural land. The shift 
in function of agricultural land has occurred in 
various regions, especially in areas with characteristics 
of urban areas including Pekalongan City. Pekalongan 
City has experienced a phenomenon of conversion of 
agricultural land since 1989 (BPS, 2018). The 
development of agricultural land conversion areas in 
Pekalongan City can be seen in figure 1 below. 



 
 

 

115 
Vol.5 No.2 Juli-Desember 2019 

 
FIGURE 1. THE DEVELOPMENT OF AGRICULTURAL LAND CONVERSION IN 

PEKALONGAN CITY 

Based on Figure 1, it can be seen that the area 
of conversion of agricultural land in Pekalongan City 
tends to increase from year to year, namely from the 
period 1989 to 2017. Figure 1 shows that in 1998, in 
2007, and in 2017 the conversion of agricultural land 
in Pekalongan City experienced a significant increase. 
This is because in that year there was an increase in 
the number of large industries and an increase in land 
use for yards or building land (BPS, 2018).  The 
results of the trend analysis in Figure 1 can be written 
in the equation as follows: 

Y=8.06 + 1.26x 

Based on the equation above it can be seen 
that the regression coefficient has a positive sign, it 
means that there is a unidirectional relationship 
between the variable area of conversion of agricultural 
land with the time variable used. It can be illustrated 
when there is an increase in variable of time by one 
unit, it will increase the amount of agricultural land 
conversion areas in the Pekalongan City by 1.26%. 
This figure shows that the agricultural land conversion 
areas in Pekalongan City tends to increase from year 
to year. The increase in land use change in 
Pekalongan City area can be caused by several things, 
namely the high rate of population growth and the 
occurrence of economic transformation in Pekalongan 
City and also the incentives received by farmers. 
Pekalongan City in the period of 1994 to 2016 
experienced an average population growth of 0.92% 
per year (BPS, 2018). The large population growth 
rate from year to year will drive an increase in 
variations in population needs other than food, and 

trigger an increase in land requirements for 
settlements, thus causing the conversion of 
agricultural land in urban areas (Gardi et al., 2015; 
Jiang & Zhang, 2016). In addition, if it is viewed from 
the economic structure in Pekalongan City, 
Pekalongan City during the last few years has 
experienced economic transformation, which 
originally has a major contribution to the agricultural 
sector in Pekalongan City, but in recent years it 
experienced a sharp decline, and the contribution of 
agricultural sector to the economy of Pekalongan City 
has weakened as a whole. This can be seen from the 
value of the Gross Regional Domestic Product 
(GRDP) of the agricultural sector in Pekalongan City 
which has contracted from 2011 to 2016 with an 
average depreciation of 3.85% per year. The 
occurrence of economic transformation has drive the 
high conversion of land in Pekalongan City. This 
economic transformation has led to an increase in the 
demand for land from the non-agricultural sector, the 
fulfilment of these needs of the land can only be done 
at the expense of other land functions, which is 
agricultural land. Competition in land use between 
the agricultural sector and the non-agricultural sector 
can occur with regard to economic transformation. 
Not only between the agricultural sector and the non-
agricultural sector, but land use competition can also 
occur between the agricultural sub-sectors such as the 
food crop sub-sector, horticulture crops, and 
plantation crops. Pekalongan City is well known as 
Batik City. This shows that Pekalongan City is very 
synonymous with the batik industry, so that land use 
for the batik industry is growing rapidly and has 
caused a decline in the area of agricultural land due to 
the conversion of agricultural land into batik industry 
centre. 

 The explanation is in accordance with many 
research that has been done. Research conducted in 
Australia related to changes in agricultural land use 
explains that agricultural land often experiences 
changes in function to non-agricultural land due to 
the presence of agricultural land tends to have a wider 
land area than other land uses, so that the potential to 
shift the land functions (Millar & Roots, 2012). In 
addition, studies in Kalimantan related to the costs 

y = 1,265x + 8,0591

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1
9

8
9

1
9

9
0

1
9

9
1

1
9

9
2

1
9

9
3

1
9

9
4

1
9

9
5

1
9

9
6

1
9

9
7

1
9

9
8

1
9

9
9

2
0

0
0

2
0

0
1

2
0

0
2

2
0

0
3

2
0

0
4

2
0

0
5

2
0

0
6

2
0

0
7

2
0

0
8

2
0

0
9

2
0

1
0

2
0

1
1

2
0

1
2

2
0

1
3

2
0

1
4

2
0

1
5

2
0

1
6

2
0

1
7



 

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and Rural Development Research 

and benefits of oil palm plantation expansion in 
Central Kalimantan state that food crop land tends to 
have low land rent, so that it tends to shift into other 
uses that have higher rental values, namely for palm 
oil plantation activities (Sumarga & Hein, 2016). 
Research in Pandeglang District, Banten Province 
concluded that the conversion of agricultural land in 
the region was due to the economic transformation 
for the development of the tourism sector (Fahri, 
Kolopaking, & Hakim, 2014). The development of 
the tourism sector requires the construction of 
physical facilities and infrastructures such as airports, 
hotels and restaurants, so that a large amount of land 
is needed to be converted, that is by using paddy 
fields. Furthermore,beside the non-agricultural sector, 
the conversion of paddy fields can also occur due to 
pressure from other agricultural sub-sectors, such as 
the plantation sub-sector. The paddy fields conversion 
in Tanjung Jabung Timur, Jambi Province occurred 
due to the emergence of encouragement from the 
plantation sector, namely oil palm plantations which 
triggered the conversion of the function of paddy 
fields into oil palm plantations (Daulay, et al., 2016). 

THE FACTORS AFFECTING AGRICULTURAL 
LAND CONVERSION IN PEKALONGAN CITY 

The conversion of agricultural land that 
occurs in various regions can be caused by various 
factors. These factors can be in the form of external 
factors which happened when the agricultural land 
owners who are opressed by the needs of land from 
outside the agricultural sector or from within the land 
owner in the form of prices received by farmers and 
paddy productivity that can be produced by farmers. 
The results of the analysis of the factors that influence 
the conversion of agricultural land in Pekalongan City 
can be seen in table 1 below. 

Based on table 1, it can be seen that the 
conversion of agricultural land in Pekalongan City is 
influenced by real paddy price factors and cultivated 
paddy productivity. The price of real paddy has a 
negative and significant effect, it means that the real 
paddy price variable at the farmer level has an 
opposite relationship with the area of agricultural land 
conversion that occurs in Pekalongan City. This 

means that the lower the price of real paddy at the 
farmer level, the higher agricultural land conversion 
will occur.  

TABLE 1. THE FACTORS AFFECTING AGRICULTURAL LAND CONVERSION IN 
PEKALONGAN CITY 

Variabel Coefficient Std. Error t P>|t| 

Real paddy price (X1) -2.219* 1.233 -1.800 0.085 
Number of industries (X2) 0.066ns 0.977 0.070 0.947 
Non-agricultural GRDP per capita (X3) 1.205ns 0.955 1.260 0.220 
Road length (X4) -6.623ns 8.856 -0.750 0.462 
Paddy productivity (X5) -15266** 7.024 -2.170 0.040 

Population (X6) 1.388ns 2.917 0.480 0.639 

Constanta 141.286* 76.000 1.850 0.077 

Source: Secondary data analysis (2019) 

Description:  

** = Significant at 95% confidence level  

* = Significant at 90% confidence level  

ns = Not significant 

Price is one of the incentives for farmers to 
carry out their farming activities (Prasada, Dhamira, & 
Nugroho, 2018; Purbiyanti, Muhammad, & Indri, 
2017). The price of agricultural production, which is 
higher paddy prices, causes increased motivation of 
farmers in running farming in urban areas, and 
conversely lower prices can reduce the motivation of 
farmers in managing farming in urban areas. 
Therefore, the real paddy price at the farmer level 
needs to be improved, so that the motivation of 
farmers to maintain the sustainability of farming and 
agricultural land in urban areas can be maintained. 
The results of this study are consistent with research 
conducted in East Java which shows that agricultural 
land is very easy to convert when the value of the 
product produced is low. The value of this product 
will depend on the production and price of 
agricultural products produced (Rondhi et al, 2018) 

The paddy productivity variable in 
Pekalongan City also shows that the variable has a 
significant influence on the extent of conversion of 
agricultural land in Pekalongan City. The paddy 
productivity variable has a coefficient with a negative 
sign, so it shows that the variable productivity of 
paddy has an opposite effect on the conversion area of 
agricultural land variable in Pekalongan City. This 
means that the decline in paddy productivity in 
Pekalongan City can lead to an increase in the extent 
of conversion of agricultural land. Paddy productivity 
is also an incentive for farmers to cultivate a farm. 



 
 

 

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Vol.5 No.2 Juli-Desember 2019 

Because of that, land conversion in Pekalongan City 
can be minimized by increasing paddy productivity in 
Pekalongan City. Paddy productivity will be very 
closely related to the level of efficiency in the use of 
inputs and the application of appropriate technology 
packages (Suharyanto, Rinaldy, & Ngurah Arya, 
2015). That is why, to increase paddy productivity can 
only be done by increasing the farming efficiency and 
increase the uses of appropriate technology. 

CONCLUSION 
The conversion of agricultural land in 

Pekalongan City tends to increase from year to year. 
The high conversion of agricultural land in 
Pekalongan City needs to get serious attention so that 
the strategic role of agricultural land in urban areas 
can be maintained properly. The agricultural land 
conversion in Pekalongan City are influenced by 
several factors, namely the real paddy price factor at 
the farm level and paddy productivity. Both of these 
variables have a negative influence on the area of 
conversion of agricultural land. Therefore, this means 
that the higher real paddy prices at the farm level and 
higher paddy productivity can cause a decrease in the 
extent of agricultural land conversion that occurs in 
Pekalongan City. Based on these results, to reduce the 
occurrence of conversion of agricultural land in urban 
areas can be done by increasing the productivity of 
agricultural land by increasing efficiency in the use of 
inputs and the application of appropriate technology. 
In addition, the conversion of agricultural land in 
urban areas can also be reduced by ensuring the price 
of agricultural products at the farmer level, so that it 
becomes an incentive for farmers to maintain the 
sustainability of agricultural land owned and 
managed. 

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 

Thank you, the authors convey to the 
Education Fund Management Institute (LPDP) for 
their assistance, both financially and non-financially so 
that the authors can publish the results of research 
related to the agricultural land conversion and the 
determinant factors that influence agricultural land 
conversion in Pekalongan City. 

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