




































 Agricultural Science; Vol. 2, No. 1; 2020 
ISSN 2690-5396   E-ISSN 2690-4799 

https://doi.org/10.30560/as.v2n1p170 

170                             Published by IDEAS SPREAD 
 

Trends of Water Requirements of Major Crops and Cropping Patterns 
in Bogura and Rajshahi Districts of Bangladesh 

Mohammad A. Mojid1, Farhana Y. Shibly1 & Tapos K. Acharjee1 

1 Department of Irrigation and Water Management, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, 2202, 
Bangladesh 
Correspondence: Mohammad A. Mojid, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, 2202, Bangladesh. E-
mail: ma_mojid@yahoo.com 
 
Received: April 21, 2020   Accepted: May 3, 2020   Online Published: May 11, 2020 
 
Abstract 
Reliable past trends of water requirements of individual crops and cropping patterns at local level, although 
crucially important for irrigation forecast and agricultural planning, are yet inadequate for the water-scarce Barind 
region of Bangladesh. This study, therefore, determined water requirements and their trends of eight major crops 
(aus, aman, boro, vegetables, mustard, sugarcane, wheat and potato) and six cropping patterns (aus–aman–boro, 
aus–aman–potato, aman–potato–fallow, vegetables–aman, aman–mustard–fallow and aus–fallow–wheat) of 
Bogura and Rajshahi districts of the Barind region. Water requirements were determined from crop, soil and 
weather data for the period 1985–2013 by using Soil-Water Balance via CropWat (SWBcropwat) model. Trends 
of rainfall, crop evapotranspiration (ETc) and irrigation requirement (IR) were determined with MAKESENS 
statistical tool. Monthly total rainfall revealed increasing trend in January, August and October but decreasing 
trend in the other months, with significant (p≤0.05) trend in July in Bogura. Monthly total ETc decreased except 
in July and September, with significant trend in October–April/May. Seasonal ETc for the crops decreased 
significantly except for aman rice and sugarcane in Bogura and for aman rice in Rajshahi. ETc also decreased for 
the cropping patterns except for aman–mustard–fallow in Rajshahi. While effective rainfall (ER) for the crops and 
cropping patterns decreased only minimally, IR decreased significantly for boro, potato and vegetables in Bogura 
and for mustard and vegetables in Rajshahi. IR decreased for all cropping patterns, with significant trend for aus–
aman–potato, aman–potato–fallow and vegetables–aman patterns. In response to changing cropping area, total 
volume of ETc increased gradually from 1985 to 2005 in Bogura and from 1985 to 2010 in Rajshahi for boro rice, 
but it decreased until 2005 before increasing for aus rice in both districts. After the year 2000, total volume of ETc 
decreased for wheat but increased for potato, indicating a shift from wheat to potato cultivation. Due to contrasting 
trends of ER and ETc and self-motivated shift in crop-choice, continuous adjustment of irrigation-based crop 
planning is necessary. The results of this study can guide future investigation for all other crops and cropping 
patterns to help planning agriculture of the study areas by choosing appropriate crops and cropping patterns based 
on available water resources. 
Keywords: irrigation forecast, water scarcity, agricultural planning, SWBcropwat 
1. Introduction 
Application of water and its managed usage has been an essential factor worldwide in raising productivity of crop 
agriculture and ensuring predictability in outputs. Crop-water requirement varies substantially across the globe, 
reflecting differences in cropping intensity, crop choice, soil characteristics, irrigation water availability, 
agricultural management and climatic condition. Information on crop-water requirement is important for selection 
of crops and cropping patterns and their irrigation scheduling in any particular area. When water is scarce, 
knowledge on the magnitude of water demand is crucial for decision-making about agricultural planning based on 
limited water resources. 
Irrigated agriculture has become central to the current rapid agricultural development and food security in 
Bangladesh. Rice being the staple food is currently grown on 73.7% of the total cultivated land, constituting 93.4% 
of the total cereal production (BBS, 2017). The projected population in the country, 185 million in 2030 and 202 
million in 2050 (United Nations, 2017), indicates an additional requirement of 12.4 and 21.0 million tons of rice 
respectively by 2030 and 2050 (Mainuddin & Kirby, 2015). So, irrigation will remain critical in supplying foods 
(Peacock, 1996), and the consumption of agricultural water will continue to increase during the coming decades 



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(CAWMA, 2007). Moreover, domestic and industrial usages of water are on the rise (Bindraban, 2001); these are 
likely to grow by 100% and 440%, respectively by 2050 (BDP2100, 2017). So, there will be growing competitions 
for getting water among the various users. Furthermore, while climate change is likely to cause shortage of drinking 
and irrigation water (World Bank, 2015) in one hand, will increase demand of irrigation from less than 1% for 
2030 in average condition to maximum 3% for 2050 in dry condition (Kirby et al., 2016) on the other hand. Rainfall 
variability, although uncertain, featuring extreme high and low rainfall, is critical for agricultural productivity and 
water availability. Thus, water availability for future food security is challenging and will become more 
challenging if further increase in irrigated area takes place, especially in vulnerable areas like the Barind region of 
the North-West Bangladesh. 
The Barind tract being one of the most intensive agricultural and irrigated regions in Bangladesh supplies about 
35% of irrigated boro rice and 60% of wheat of the whole country. About 78% irrigated land in this region is 
covered by groundwater (Hasanuzzaman et al., 2017). Particularly, over 97% of the total area in Rajshahi district 
and over 99% of the total area in Bogura district of the Barind region are currently irrigated by groundwater (BBS, 
2017); usage of surface water for irrigation is very limited in these districts because of its limited availability. The 
Barind region is facing a number of challenges, such as rapid population growth, declining cultivable land, 
inadequate water availability during dry season (October–April), declining groundwater table (Ahmad et al., 2014; 
Mojid et al., 2019) and extreme events like floods and droughts. Some parts of the Barind region are now of 
greatest concern over falling groundwater tables (CSIRO, WARPO, BWDB, IWM, BIDS, CEGIS, 2014) since 
groundwater usage has become unsustainable in those areas (Kirby et al., 2013). Impacts of climate change are 
now visible in the Barind tract in the form of temperature variations, erratic rainfall patterns with low monsoon 
rains, decreased duration of rainy season, intense short-duration rainfall, increased number of droughts, and 
prevalence of rough weather. Thus, availability of adequate water during farming seasons has become uncertain. 
Consequently, it has now become essential to understand the future possible changes in agricultural water 
requirements to improve water resources management in the region. Demand management is regarded as an 
important part of the overall solution of water scarcity. The importance of accurately estimating crop-water 
demand for irrigation forecast and agricultural water management has been widely recognized (Hossain et al., 
2017) since proper plan for the application of desired amount of water at right time can conserve the water 
resources. 
Trends of water requirement, estimated from the observed recent past long-term daily climate data, and their 
comparison with the trends of local climatic parameters may provide a better insight into the changes in water 
demand (Acharjee et al., 2017a). Water requirement and cropping patterns are very closely related and very 
important for efficacious crop production. If water requirements of each crop and cropping pattern of a region are 
known, agriculture of the region can be planned based on its available water resources. With this view, this study 
was planned to find out water requirements and contribution of effective rainfall to the total irrigation requirement, 
and their trends for the major crops and cropping patterns in Bogura and Rajshahi districts of the North-West 
Bangladesh over the recent past three decades (1985–2013). 
2. Methodology 
2.1 Study Area 
The Barind tract of Bangladesh comprises most parts of the greater Dinajpur, Rangpur, Pabna, Rajshahi, Bogura, 
Joypurhat and Naogaon districts of Rajshahi and Rangpur divisions in the North-West Bangladesh (Fig. 1). About 
73% of its land area is used for agriculture and the percentage of lands used for single cropping, double cropping 
and triple cropping is 15%, 56% and 29%, respectively in Rajshahi division and 8%, 64% and 27%, respectively 
in Rangpur division (BBS, 2017). A large variety of different crops are grown in these divisions. These include 
rice (aus, aman, boro), vegetables, mustard, sugarcane, wheat, potato, tobacco, fibres (jute, mesta, cotton), fruits 
(mango, pineapple, jackfruit, papaya, melon & water melon, litchi, guava, lemon, palm, date), other cereals (barley, 
joar, bajra, cheena, kaon), oil seeds (sesame, mustard, groundnut, linseed, coconut, castor), pulses (gram, arhar, 
lentil, chick pea, mung bean, kheshari), and spices & condiments (chillies, onion, garlic, turmeric, ginger, 
coriander). Of these, the major crops are rice (aus, aman and boro), wheat, potato, jute, sugarcane, mustard, maize 
and vegetables, most of which (except aman rice, jute and sugarcane) are cultivated during dry season (November–
April). Boro rice is the dominant dry period crop, which is cultivated on more than 70% of the cultivable area 
during December to May (Acharjee et al., 2017b). 
The Barind tract lies in the monsoon region of the summer-dominant hemisphere. Its average temperature ranges 
from 25°C to 35°C in the hottest season and 9°C to 15°C in the coolest season (Banglapedia, 2014). The region is 
regarded as a drought-prone water-scarce area, often causing devastating effect on agricultural production and 



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livelihood of the people (Hussain, 2017). Bogura and Rajshahi districts from the Barind tract (Fig. 1) were selected 
for this study. Bogura district has a humid sub-tropical climate, with average annual rainfall being 1610 mm. The 
annual average temperature of the district varies from 11.9°C to 34.6°C (BBS, 2014). Rajshahi has a tropical wet 
and dry climate. Rainfall is relatively low; the average annual rainfall being 1,448 mm. The maximum mean 
temperature varies from 32 to 36°C during April to July, and the minimum temperature is 7 to 16°C in January 
(Wikipedia, 2018). There were total 177 cropping patterns in the greater Bogura regions (Bogura and surrounding 
districts), with the highest number of cropping patterns (36) was in Nandigram upazila and the lowest number (6) 
was in Dupchachia and Kahalu upazila of Bogura district (Islam et al., 2017). In the greater Rajshahi region 
(Rajshahi and surrounding districts), there were total 172 cropping patterns, with the highest number (36) in Paba 
upazila and the lowest number (11) in Charghat (11) upazila of Rajshahi district (Rashid et al., 2017). 
 

 
Figure 1. Locations Bogura and Rajshahi districts in Bangladesh 

 
2.2 Data Collection 
Data on daily reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) and rainfall for the period 1985–2013 were collected from 
an on-going project (SDIP II: Sustaining groundwater irrigation for food security in the North-West region of 
Bangladesh) of CSIRO, Australia. The average, maximum and minimum ETo and rainfall for Bogura and Rajshahi 
districts are provided in Table A1 in Appendix. Data on crops such as length of growth stage, crop co-efficient, 
root depths, depletion factors, yield reduction factors, maximum ponding depth, minimum ponding depth, refill 
ponding depth, planting date and planting duration were collected from sub-district (called upazila) and district 
Agricultural Offices through SDIP II project. Planting date, length of growth stage and harvesting date of the crops 
for Bogura and Rajshahi districts are provided in Table A2 in Appendix. Out of a large number of cropping patterns 
(172~177) only six commonly practiced cropping patterns: aus−aman−boro, aus−aman−potato, aman−potato, 
vegetables−aman, mustard−aman and aus–fallow–wheat were investigated in this study, specifically to generate 
the basic information. It is noted that the cropping patterns in Bogura and Rajshahi districts have been changing 
over the years depending on many factors, such as irrigation facility, market price of the produce, profitability of 
the crop, food habit of the people, etc. We evaluated trend of water requirements of the crops and cropping patterns 



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over the period from 1985 to 2013. Therefore, in selecting the crops and cropping patterns, we emphasized on 
cropping practices over this period. However, for complete scenario development for water use, all the crops and 
cropping patterns need to be investigated, which was not within the scope of this study. Data on soil-types, initial 
soil-moisture content, soil-moisture content at saturation and field capacity, residual soil-moisture content, 
saturated hydraulic conductivity and percolation rate for rice fields used in estimating water requirements are given 
in Table A3 in Appendix. The rooting depths, depletion factors, yield reduction factors and ponding depths of 
different crops used in the estimation are given in Table A4 in Appendix. 
2.3 Water Requirement Estimation 
Irrigation-water requirement was estimated by using Soil-Water Balance via CropWat (SWBcropwat) model of 
Mainuddin et al. (2014), which is a macro in MS excel sheets. This model calculates irrigation water requirement 
of crops and soil-water balance following the principle in Allen et al. (1998). For calculation of effective rainfall, 
the model utilized the method of USDA Soil Conservation Service (1993) that was developed based on long-term 
climatic and soil moisture data. It can perform calculation for one or more weather/climate sequences, crops and 
soils. The model can therefore calculate irrigation requirements and soil-water balance of many places within large 
areas and places with different climates, soils and crops. It was designed to do the calculations necessary for spatial 
assessments of irrigation requirements and soil-water balance. However, there is no any available sophisticated 
method to calculate infiltration and drainage for determining soil-water balance. But there is a simple and 
sophisticated option, called water content-dependent leaking buckets, in SWBcropwat. In this option, soil-water 
content is calculated daily by adding irrigation and rainfall, and subtracting evapotranspiration/soil evaporation, 
runoff and drainage. Whenever soil-water content exceeds saturation, the excess water is subtracted and added to 
runoff. Drainage is calculated from the water content-dependent hydraulic conductivity. Rice crop is treated 
differently with a fixed leakage rate, presumed to be lower than upland crop, because of puddling during the rice 
transplanting period. For water balance calculation, a working worksheet keeps link with input worksheets for rain, 
reference evapotranspiration, soil and crop data, multi-cropping sequence and irrigation-rules. The calculations 
are done in a macro, and the number of irrigations, total irrigation, total rain, crop-available rain, reference 
evapotranspiration, crop evapotranspiration, total drainage, total runoff, yield potential, etc. are generated as 
outputs to other worksheets. The water-balance outputs can be either annual or daily as desired by the user. For 
details on SWB model, the readers are referred to Mainuddin et al. (2014). 
Crop evapotranspiration (ETc) was calculated by crop co-efficient approach in which ETc (mm/day) was calculated 
by multiplying reference evapotranspiration, ETo (mm/day), with crop co-efficient (Kc, dimensionless) as 

    𝐸𝑇c = 𝐾c × 𝐸𝑇o               (1) 

ETo being a climatic parameter expresses evaporative power of the atmosphere and is defined as the 
evapotranspiration from excellently managed, large, well-watered fields that achieve full production under the 
given climatic conditions. Differences in leaf anatomy, stomatal characteristics, aerodynamic properties and 
albedo cause ETc to differ from ETo under the same climatic conditions. Due to variations in the crop characteristics 
throughout the growing season, Kc for a given crop changes from sowing till harvest. Its value for rice is generally 
greater than 1, especially during the vigorous growth period, but for other crops, it is less than 1. We calculated 
effective rainfall by using the method of USDA Soil Conservation Service (1993) that was developed based on 
long-term climatic and soil moisture data. 
2.4 Trend Analysis 
The trend of monthly total rainfall and crop evapotranspiration (ETc); seasonal total ETc, effective rainfall (ER) 
and irrigation requirement (IR) of eight major crops; and ETc, ER and IR of six major cropping patterns were 
determined by using Mann-Kendall-Sens (MAKESENS) trend statistics (Salmi, 2002). An MS excel template for 
implementation of the MAKESENS model, developed for detecting and estimating trend in time series of annual 
values of atmospheric chemistry, are freely available as open source. The used statistical methods are the non-
parametric Mann-Kendall test for analyzing the presence of monotonic increasing or decreasing trend and the non-
parametric Sen's method for estimating the slope of a linear trend (Salmi, 2002). MAKESENS utilizes two statistics, 
called S-statistics and Z-statistics (Gilbert, 1987), to estimate trend. For time series with less than 10 data points, 
S-statistics is used, and for time series with ≥10 data points, Z-statistics is used. If x1, x2, x3, …., xj represent n data 
points, where xj is the data point at time j, Mann-Kendall statistics “S” is expressed by 



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( ) 
−

= +=

−=
1

1 1
sgn

n

k

n

kj
kj xxS  (2)

In Equation (1), sgn(xj − xk) = 1 for xj − xk > 0, or sgn(xj − xk) = 0 for xj − xk = 0, or sgn(xj − xk) = −1 for xj − xk < 
0. The normalized Z-statistics is given by 

( )[ ] 2/1
1

SVAR
SZ −=

       if S>0 

( )[ ] 2/1
1

SVAR
SZ +=

       if S<0 

Z = 0                  if S = 0 

(3)

The MAKESENS model provides trends of the monthly total rainfall and ETc; seasonal total ETc, ER and IR of 
eight major crops; and ETc, ER and IR of six major cropping patterns in terms of Z-statistics (Equation (3)), slope, 
and intercept of the trend line. It also provides statistical significance of the observed trends in the values of the 
parameters. The Z-statistics is a deterministic index of the trend. The intercept and slope together provide the trend 
lines. The slope of the trend lines determines magnitude and direction of the trend. Based on data type, especially 
sensitivity of change, the MAKESENS model determines statistical significance of the trend at p ≤ 0.10, ≤0.05, 
≤0.01 and ≤0.001. The Mann-Kendall test requires at least four values, and calculation of the confidence intervals 
for the Sen's slope estimate requires at least ten values in a time series. 
3. Results 
3.1 Monthly Total Rainfall and Crop Evapotranspiration 
Negative values of Mann-Kendall trend statistics, Z (Table 1), revealed declining trend of monthly total rainfall in 
eight of the twelve months over the period 1985–2013 both in Bogura and Rajshahi districts, with the significant 
(p≤0.05) declining trend (–8.67 mm/month/year) in July. Monthly total rainfall increased slightly over the years 
in April, August and October in Bogura, and August and October in Rajshahi. Rainfall effectively remained 
invariant during January, March and December in both districts. The rate of variation (decreasing/increasing) of 
the monthly total rainfall was higher in Bogura than in Rajshahi district in most of the months. Monthly total crop 
evapotranspiration, ETc (Equation 1), declined significantly from October to April in Bogura and October to May 
in Rajshahi (Table 1). ETc showed slightly increasing trend in July and September in both districts but remained 
effectively unchanged in August and September in Rajshahi. Sen's slope revealed the higher declining rates of ETc 
in Bogura than in Rajshahi. 
 
Table 1. Mann-Kendall trend values (Z; Equation 3) and Sen's slopes (S, mm/month/year; Equation 2) of monthly 
total rainfall and crop evapotranspiration (ETc) in Bogura and Rajshahi districts 

Months Rainfall Crop evapotranspiration, ETc 
Bogura Rajshahi Bogura Rajshahi 

Z S Z S Z S Z S 
January 0.30 0.000 0.10 0.00 –5.08*** –0.846 –4.26*** –0.021
February –1.77+ –0.229 –1.78+ –0.33 –2.68** –0.466 –2.53* –0.018
March –0.06 0.000 0.06 0.00 –3.47*** –0.951 –2.91** –0.026
April 0.32 0.433 –0.49 –0.54 –3.32*** –0.892 –4.26*** –0.047
May –1.76+ –3.211 –0.08 –0.09 –0.88 –0.356 –2.61** –0.020
June –1.54 –4.604 –0.09 –0.53 –1.78+ –0.342 –1.48 –0.010
July –2.34* –8.667 –1.18 –4.21 1.29 0.367 1.67+ 0.010
August 1.16 3.087 0.28 0.35 –0.43 –0.113 –0.96 –0.007
September –1.69+ –5.639 –0.96 –3.15 0.39 0.148 1.11 0.007
October 0.17 1.022 0.41 0.58 –2.08* –0.346 –2.23* –0.011
November –0.90 0.000 –1.48 –0.12 –3.43*** –0.512 –2.61** –0.010
December –1.69+ 0.000 –1.56 0.00 –3.81*** –0.799 –3.25** –0.016

+, *, ** and *** signs indicate significant at p≤0.10, ≤0.05, ≤0.01 and ≤0.001 level of significance, respectively. 



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3.2 Effective Rainfall and Crop-water Requirements 
Effective rainfall, ER, was always much less than crop evapotranspiration, ETc, for boro rice both in Bogura and 
Rajshahi districts (Fig. 2). ETc showed a gradual decreasing trend over the years of study. Large quantity of 
irrigation was needed for boro rice; the highest irrigation requirement was 588 mm in 1988–1989 and the lowest 
was 223 mm in 2001–2002 in Bogura. The corresponding quantity of irrigation requirement was 596 mm in 1988–
1989 and 300 mm in 1999–2000 in Rajshahi. In contrast, ER was higher than ETc in most of the years for aus rice 
and always higher than ETc for aman rice. Therefore, only occasional supplemental irrigation was needed for aus 
rice but no irrigation was needed for aman rice in both districts. As demonstrated in Fig. 2, ER fluctuated over a 
wide range from year to year; for example, it was 1185 mm in the aus season of 1988 but only 315 mm in the aus 
season of 2012 in Bogura. Because of higher ETc than ER, irrigation was a necessity for vegetables and mustard 
both in Bogura and Rajshahi districts (Fig. 3). ETc for sugarcane remained unchanged over the years. Sugarcane 
being a perennial year-round crop received enough rainfall during its main growth period and, therefore, it did not 
require irrigation. ETc of wheat and potato was higher than ER in both districts and large quantity of irrigation was 
needed for these crops (Fig. 3). ETc of these crops decreased gradually over the study period. 
Mann-Kendall trends (Z-statistics) of ETc of the crops were significant (p≤0.05) except for aman rice and 
sugarcane in Bogura and for aman rice in Rajshahi (Table 2). Negative values of Z revealed declining trend of ETc 
except for aman rice and sugarcane for Bogura and aman for Rajshahi. The most declining trend was for boro rice 
(4.37 mm/season/year) in Bogura and sugarcane (5.31 mm/season/year) in Rajshahi. Although effective rainfall 
was declining, none of the Mann-Kendall value was significant for the crops under investigation. Sen's slopes 
showed declining rate of irrigation requirement, IR, except for aus, aman and sugarcane in both districts (Table 2). 
The declining trend of IR was significant for boro rice, potato and vegetables in Bogura and for mustard and 
vegetables in Rajshahi. 

 

Figure 2. Variation of crop evapotranspiration (ETc), effective rainfall (ER) and irrigation requirement (IR) of 
boro, aus and aman rice during 1985–2013 in Bogura (left) and Rajshahi (right) districts 



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Figure 3. Variation of crop evapotranspiration (ETc), effective rainfall (ER) and irrigation requirement (IR) of 
vegetables, mustard, sugarcane, wheat and potato during 1985–2013 in Bogura (left) and Rajshahi (right) 

districts 
 
Table 2. Mann-Kendall trend (Z; Equation 3) and Sen's slope (S, mm/season/year; Equation 2) of estimated crop 
evapotranspiration (ETc, mm/season), effective rainfall (ER, mm/season) and irrigation requirement (IR, 
mm/season) of eight major crops under study in Bogura and Rajshahi districts 

Crops Bogura Rajshahi 
ETc ER IR ETc ER IR 

Z S Z S Z S Z S Z S Z S 
Boro –4.96*** –4.37 –0.30 –0.65 –2.03* –3.13 –3.50*** –3.71 –0.75 –1.02 –1.36 –2.56
Aus –2.76** –1.85 –1.74+ –5.48 0.43 0.00 –4.03*** –2.59 –0.17 –0.69 –0.54 0.00
Aman 0.73 0.16 –1.74 –9.96 0.00 0.00 0.73 0.16 –1.74+ –9.95 0.00 0.00
Mustard –4.76*** –1.88 –1.70+ –0.39 –1.68+ –1.23 –3.93*** –1.35 –1.21 –0.26 –2.07* –0.95
Potato –4.48*** –2.79 –0.97 –0.71 –2.23* –1.80 –3.54*** –1.89 –0.79 –0.77 –1.09 –1.17
Vegetables –4.72*** –2.21 –1.25 –0.46 –2.19* –1.52 –3.81*** –1.50 –1.03 –0.25 –2.35* –1.25
Sugarcane –2.68 –2.00 –1.80 –10.71 0.00 0.00 –3.28** –5.31 –1.29 –8.68 0.68 0.00
Wheat –4.52*** –2.15 –0.59 –0.28 –1.96+ –1.85 –4.29*** –1.39 –0.24 –0.14 –1.80+ –1.19

+, *, ** and *** signs indicate significant at p≤0.10, ≤0.05, ≤0.01 and ≤0.001 level of significance, respectively. 
 
3.3 Water Requirements of Major Cropping Patterns 
The effective rainfall was less than ETc for the cropping patterns over the study period (1985–2013), and hence 
irrigation was needed for aus–aman–boro, aus–aman–potato, aman–potato–fallow, vegetables–aman, aman–
mustard–fallow and aus–fallow–wheat patterns both in Bogura and Rajshahi districts (Figs. 4 and 5). In spite of 
some inter-annual fluctuations, ETc for the cropping patterns decreased gradually over the years. But, because of 
larger inter-annual fluctuation in the effective rainfall, irrigation requirement for the cropping patterns also 
fluctuated in parallel to the effective rainfall. 



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Figure 4. Variation of crop evapotranspiration (ETc), effective rainfall (ER) and irrigation requirement (IR) of 
aus–aman–boro, aus–aman–potato and aman–potato cropping patterns during 1985–2013 in Bogura (left) and 

Rajshahi (right) districts 

 
Figure 5. Variation of crop evapotranspiration (ETc), effective rainfall (ER) and irrigation requirement (IR) of 

vegetables–aman, mustard–aman and wheat–aus cropping patterns during 1985–2013 in Bogura (left) and 
Rajshahi (right) districts 

 
The Mann-Kendall Z-value for ETc showed significant decreasing trend for the cropping patterns except for aman–
mustard–fallow pattern in Rajshahi (Table 3). The most declining rate of ETc was for aus–aman–boro pattern in 
both districts, with Sen's slope of –6.30 (mm/year) for Bogura and –5.75 (mm/year) for Rajshahi that represented 
declining rates of ETc. The effective rainfall for the cropping patterns remained effectively unchanged. Irrigation 
requirement for the cropping patterns declined over the years, with significant declining trend for aus–aman–potato, 
aman–potato–fallow and vegetables–aman patterns in Bogura. 
 



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Table 3. Mann-Kendall trend (Z-statistics; Equation 3) and Sen’s slope (S, mm/season/year; Equation 2) of crop 
evapotranspiration (ETc, mm/season), effective rainfall (ER, mm/season) and irrigation requirement (IR, 
mm/season) of six major cropping patterns in Bogura and Rajshahi districts 

 Bogura Rajshahi 

Cropping patterns ETc ER IR ETc ER IR 

Z S Z S Z S Z S Z S Z S 

Aus–aman–boro –4.01*** –6.30 –1.17 –2.46 –1.52 –2.88 –3.34*** –5.75 –0.81 –2.05 –1.28 –5.22

Aus–aman–potato –3.89*** –4.96 –1.96+ –2.68 –2.11* –1.77 –3.30*** –4.00 –0.30 –0.66 –1.01 –3.47

Aman–potato–fallow –2.86** –2.59 –0.73 –0.87 –2.23* –1.80 –2.39* –1.50 –0.38 –0.41 –0.69 –1.06

Vegetables–aman –2.83** –2.13 –0.45 –0.39 –2.19* –1.52 –2.27* –1.50 –0.49 –0.22 –1.80+ –1.12

Aman–mustard–fallow –2.55* –1.81 –0.73 –0.50 –1.68+ –1.23 –1.96+ –1.18 –0.18 –0.14 –1.48 –0.86

Aus–fallow–wheat –4.37*** –4.67 –1.56 –2.01 –1.68+ –1.95 –4.37*** –4.27 –0.30 –0.28 –0.93 –2.03

+, *, ** and *** signs indicate significant at p≤0.10, ≤0.05, ≤0.01 and ≤0.001 level of significance, respectively. 
 
3.4 Crop Evapotranspiration as Influenced by Changing Cropping Area 
The seasonal total volume of crop evapotranspiration, ETc, of boro rice increased gradually from 1985 to 2005 in 
Bogura and from 1985 to 2010 in Rajshahi district and then decreased in both districts (Fig. 6) in response to a 
similar change in cropping area of boro rice. It is noted that data on cropping area for boro, aus and aman were not 
available for the period 2001–2007 and also similar data for potato were not available for the period 2005–2010 
for Rajshahi. ETc of aus rice decreased up to the year 2005, after which it increased to some extent. ETc of the 
aman rice remained unchanged except slight inter-annual variations in both the districts. In Bogura, ETc of wheat 
decreased but that of potato increased, with rapid change in ETc from the year 2000. In Rajshahi, ETc for wheat 
and potato remained unchanged from 1985 to 1998 and then increased. There was a direct positive correlation with 
ETc and cropping area in both districts that clearly indicated an adjustment in the cropping patterns by choosing 
crops, plausibly mainly based on availability of irrigation water among other factors. 
4. Discussion 
4.1 Under-utilized Effective Rainfall 
The effective rainfall, ER, was substantially larger than crop evapotranspiration, ETc, of aus rice in Bogura district 
(Fig. 2). Therefore, no irrigation was needed and a part of ER remained unutilized. In Rajshahi district, on the 
other hand, ER was considerably larger than ETc of aus rice in some years and considerably smaller than ETc in 
other years (Fig. 2), revealing the necessity of supplemental irrigation when ER was effectively smaller than ETc 
of the crop in Rajshahi. For aman rice, ER being about double the amount of ETc indicated no requirement of 
irrigation (Fig. 2) and unutilized ER. By estimating water requirement for aman rice for 2005–2012 seasons in 
Tanore upazila of Rajshahi district, Hasan et al. (2019) also showed no irrigation requirement for this crop during 
June to September due to high rainfall. For sugarcane cultivation, ER was significantly greater than ETc in Bogura 
but mostly equal to ETc in Rajshahi (Fig. 3). Although ERs during some crop-growing periods were larger than 
the crops’ seasonal total ETc, they were always significantly smaller than ETc for the six cropping patterns under 
investigation (Figs. 4 and 5). The reason for this was that the excess ER for a crop period could not be transferred 
to the next season for another crop in the pattern; the excess ER was always wasted. The effective rainfall, ER, 
was estimated from the daily total rainfall based on soil-water retention capacity for the upland crops and allowable 
standing water depths for irrigated rice crops. The two districts under study are drought-prone (Hussain, 2017); 
often there were long rainless dry periods (32–48 days) depending on duration of the droughts (BanDuDeltAS, 
2015; Mojid, 2020). This means that the rainfall events were not uniformly distributed over the crop periods, and 
hence potential ER from the rainfalls could not be utilized fully. The large rainfall events might exceed soil’s 
retention capacity and standing water depths in the rice fields and the excess amounts were lost through surface 
runoff and deep percolation. Therefore, there remain ample scopes for rainwater harvesting in both districts 
(Masum et al., 2013) that can be utilized for irrigation in the following dry season crop cultivation. 



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Figure 6. Changes in total volume of crop evapotranspiration (ETc) of boro rice, aus rice, aman rice, wheat and 

potato due to changes in cropping area during 1984/1985 to 2012/2013 in Bogura (left) and Rajshahi (right) 
districts 

 
4.2 Cropping Pattern Selection 
Selection of a cropping pattern is governed by several factors such as crop suitability to local conditions, local 
food habits, economic profitability of the produce and availability of inputs for production of the crops, among 
which irrigation water availability is the most crucial one for the study areas. Both in Bogura and Rajshahi districts, 
irrigation areas expanded significantly (BBS, 2017) over the study period (1985–2013) due to increasing food 
production, especially boro rice production, to meet increasing food demand. However, due to scanty and uncertain 
rainfall in the dry season (October–April), boro rice cultivation is fully dependent on irrigation (Masum et al., 
2013). This has already caused scarcity of irrigation water for dry season crop production. The amount of rainfall 
in the North-West region of Bangladesh, within which the study areas are located, is progressively declining. The 
average annual rainfall (1985–2015) of six major rain gauge stations in this region shows a declining trend of 9.2 
mm/year (Mojid et al., 2019). The water-scarcity situations in the study areas are expected to be much worse in 
future since irrigation water requirement can increase by 1% to 5% in 2050 depending on crop selection 
(Mainuddin et al., 2015). Although rice crop itself will not require extra amount of water for its conjunctive use 
(Kader et al., 2014; Mojid et al., 2015) the increasing irrigation command area and warmer climate will require 
more water to be pumped (Shahid, 2011). This will ultimately aggravate the already stressed groundwater 
resources of the study areas. Due to scarcity of irrigation water during the dry season crop production, many 
farmers in the study areas have been already compelled to shift from high-water demanding boro rice to low-water 
demanding crops like potato, wheat, vegetables, fruit, etc. Such dynamism in crop selection is guided by significant 
differences in the quantities of irrigation requirement for different cropping patterns (Figs. 4 and 5). Consequently, 
appropriate planning of agriculture by selecting the proper cropping pattern(s) based on available water for 
irrigation shall remain a major policy option for the future to continue agricultural production in the study areas. 



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However, shifting the cropping patterns will also have some limitations because of food habits and custom of the 
local people. Along with crop selection, serious efforts to increase water availability for irrigation may be needed. 
In this regard, the excess rainwater, currently returned as surface runoff, will be an important water source to be 
harvested in ponds and reservoirs for using in dry season irrigation in the future. Another option will be adoption 
of techniques for induced natural recharge and artificial recharge to groundwater aquifers during the wet season. 
5. Conclusions 
Monthly total rainfall and seasonal effective rainfall for the major crops and cropping patterns decreased gradually 
in Bogura and Rajshahi districts over the years 1985–2013 except in January, August and October. Whatever 
effective rainfalls occurred might not be utilized fully because of their non-uniform temporal distributions. So, the 
dry season crop period (November–April) became drier over this period. To the wonder, irrigation requirement of 
the widely practiced cropping patterns also revealed declining trend due to decrease in crop evapotranspiration, 
ETc, of the crops. In response to increasing boro rice area, its seasonal total ETc increased gradually up to 2005 in 
Bogura and 2010 in Rajshahi. This caused scarcity of irrigation water and forced the farmers to shift from the high 
water-demanding boro rice to low water-demanding wheat and potato cultivation. Irrigation requirement of the 
cropping patterns was in the order: aus–aman–boro>aus–aman–potato>aman–potato>wheat–aus>vegetables–
aman> mustard–aman for Bogura, and aus–aman–boro>aus–aman–potato>wheat–aus>aman–potato>vegetables–
aman>mustard–aman for Rajshahi. Due to the decreasing trends of effective rainfall and dynamic shift in crop-
choice by the farmers in response to increasing irrigation area, continuous adjustment of irrigation-based crop 
planning is necessary for optimum production by resource optimization. The methodology and findings of this 
study can be used for periodic evaluation of crop suitability and cropping patterns based on available water 
resources in the study areas. This study estimated water requirements of some selected crops and cropping patterns 
only by SWBcropwat model. We suggest using other methods for these estimations in order to verify our results. 
Future research can focus on climate variability and change of the study areas and estimating water requirements 
of all crops and cropping patterns under changing climatic condition. 
Conflict of interest 
The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest. 
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Appendix 

Table A1. Monthly average, maximum and minimum reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) and rainfall in 
Bogura and Rajshashi districts 

Districts Parameters Month 

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Bogura ETo 
(mm) 

Avg. 69 91 134 144 145 122 118 119 107 106 84 68 

Max. 83 104 164 176 170 139 139 137 121 119 95 79 

Min. 50 73 110 123 105 102 94 102 89 88 69 44 

Rainfall 
(mm) 

Avg. 7 12 18 77 195 322 356 296 300 156 12 7 

Max. 65 53 76 284 416 756 749 623 733 523 92 112

Min. 0 0 0 0 92 128 92 111 99 0 0 0 

Rajshahi ETo 

(mm) 
Avg. 69 89 134 156 155 129 119 120 109 105 83 68 

Max. 81 105 174 197 176 154 135 138 124 118 90 78 

Min. 55 75 116 131 117 115 101 106 94 89 68 49 

Rainfall 
(mm) 

Avg. 5 13 22 53 141 246 307 243 271 114 14 7 

Max. 26 47 104 136 301 507 763 468 644 292 101 92 

Min. 0 0 0 0 17 85 94 96 89 4 0 0 

 
Table A2. Crop data on planting date, length of growth stage and harvesting date of the crops of Bogura and 
Rajshahi districts under investigation 

Crops Planting/ 
Transplanting 

date 

Length of growth stage (day) Harvesting date

initial development mid-season late-season 

Aman 1 August 20 30 30 25 14 November 



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Aus 1 May 20 30 20 20 30 July 
Boro 17 January 20 30 40 15 29 April 
Potato 20 November 20 25 40 15 18 February 
Wheat 26 October 10 20 45 25 4 February 
Pulses 16 September 20 30 40 20 5 January 
Sugarcane 1 January 30 60 180 95 1 January 
Vegetables 15 November 20 30 30 15 19 February 
Mustard 20 November 15 30 20 15 9 February 

 
Table A3. Soil-types, initial soil-moisture content (MCini), soil-moisture content at saturation (MCsat) and field 
capacity (MCFC), residual soil-moisture content (MCres), saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ksat) and percolation 
rate for rice fields (PERrice) used in estimating water requirements for Bogura and Rajshahi districts 

Parameters Loam Clay Clay loam Heavy clay 
MCini 0.2 0.25 0.27 0.298 
MCsat 0.35 0.52 0.52 0.55 
MCFC 0.22 0.39 0.36 0.49 
MCres 0.04 0.24 0.21 0.35 
Ksat (mm/d) 136.8 57.6 62.4 50.4 
PERrice (mm/d) 1.0 1.0 1.5 0.5 

 
Table A4. Rooting depths, depletion factors, yield reduction factors and ponding depths of different crops used in 
in estimating water requirements for Bogura and Rajshahi districts 

Parameters Stage Rice_BR29 Rice_Aman Rice_ Aus Wheat Potato Other Robi

Root depth (mm) 
ini 500 1000 700 800 700 600 
md 1000 1000 700 1000 1000 600 

Depletion factors 
ini 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.55 0.4 0.45 
mid 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.55 0.4 0.45 
end 0.2 0.9 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.8 

Yield reduction factors 

ini 0.9 0.2 1.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 
dev 1.1 0.65 1.1 0.55 1.1 1.1 
mid 0.5 0.55 2.2 0.65 0.8 0.75 
end 0.33 0.25 0.33 0.35 0.4 0.2 
tot 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.15 1.05 1.15 

Ponding depth (mm) 
max 100 100 100 
min 10 10 10 
refill 50 50 50 

 
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Copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. 
This is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution 
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    /HRV (Za stvaranje Adobe PDF dokumenata najpogodnijih za visokokvalitetni ispis prije tiskanja koristite ove postavke.  Stvoreni PDF dokumenti mogu se otvoriti Acrobat i Adobe Reader 5.0 i kasnijim verzijama.)
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    /NLD (Gebruik deze instellingen om Adobe PDF-documenten te maken die zijn geoptimaliseerd voor prepress-afdrukken van hoge kwaliteit. De gemaakte PDF-documenten kunnen worden geopend met Acrobat en Adobe Reader 5.0 en hoger.)
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    /ENU (Use these settings to create Adobe PDF documents best suited for high-quality prepress printing.  Created PDF documents can be opened with Acrobat and Adobe Reader 5.0 and later.)
  >>
  /Namespace [
    (Adobe)
    (Common)
    (1.0)
  ]
  /OtherNamespaces [
    <<
      /AsReaderSpreads false
      /CropImagesToFrames true
      /ErrorControl /WarnAndContinue
      /FlattenerIgnoreSpreadOverrides false
      /IncludeGuidesGrids false
      /IncludeNonPrinting false
      /IncludeSlug false
      /Namespace [
        (Adobe)
        (InDesign)
        (4.0)
      ]
      /OmitPlacedBitmaps false
      /OmitPlacedEPS false
      /OmitPlacedPDF false
      /SimulateOverprint /Legacy
    >>
    <<
      /AddBleedMarks false
      /AddColorBars false
      /AddCropMarks false
      /AddPageInfo false
      /AddRegMarks false
      /ConvertColors /ConvertToCMYK
      /DestinationProfileName ()
      /DestinationProfileSelector /DocumentCMYK
      /Downsample16BitImages true
      /FlattenerPreset <<
        /PresetSelector /MediumResolution
      >>
      /FormElements false
      /GenerateStructure false
      /IncludeBookmarks false
      /IncludeHyperlinks false
      /IncludeInteractive false
      /IncludeLayers false
      /IncludeProfiles false
      /MultimediaHandling /UseObjectSettings
      /Namespace [
        (Adobe)
        (CreativeSuite)
        (2.0)
      ]
      /PDFXOutputIntentProfileSelector /DocumentCMYK
      /PreserveEditing true
      /UntaggedCMYKHandling /LeaveUntagged
      /UntaggedRGBHandling /UseDocumentProfile
      /UseDocumentBleed false
    >>
  ]
>> setdistillerparams
<<
  /HWResolution [2400 2400]
  /PageSize [612.000 792.000]
>> setpagedevice

