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Agriculture and Food Sciences Research 
Vol. 11, No. 2, 52-58, 2024 

ISSN(E) 2411-6653/ ISSN(P) 2518-0193 
DOI: 10.20448/aesr.v11i2.5995 

© 2024 by the authors; licensee Asian Online Journal Publishing Group 

 
 

 
 
 
The grasshopper arcyptera (Pararcyptera) meridionalis ikonnikov (Insecta, 
orthoptera) as a possible agricultural pest in temperate Asia 

 
Oxana V. Yefremova1   

Vladimir V. Molodtsov2   

Sergey Yu. Storozhenko3   

Anna A. Shamychkova4   

Michael G. Sergeev5   

 

 
( Corresponding Author) 

 
1,2,5Department of General Biology and Ecology, Novosibirsk State University, Novosibirsk, Russia. 
1Email: oxana@fen.nsu.ru  
2Email: vv@fen.nsu.ru  
1,2,4,5Laboratory of Biogeomodelling and Ecoinformatics, Novosibirsk State University, Novosibirsk, Russia. 
4Email: a.shamychkova@g.nsu.ru  
3Federal Scientific Center of the East Asia Terrestrial Biodiversity, Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy 
of Sciences, Vladivostok, Russia. 
3Email: storozhenko@biosoil.ru  
5Institute of Systematics and Ecology of Animals, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk, 
Russia. 
5Email: mgs@fen.nsu.ru 

 
Abstract 

The goal of the article is to estimate possible changes of the distribution of Arcyptera meridionalis 
in the contemporary and potential future climatic conditions. The data were collected during field 
trips. Two packages to produce the species distribution models, namely MaxEnt and ellipsenm, 
were used. The generated models predict that the status of A. meridionalis as the important pest 
will not change significantly in the nearest future, however, in the middle of this century, its 
distribution patterns will become more complicated. The areas those will be the most suitable for 
the species will remain mainly in the western and central parts of its range. The harmful activity 
of A. meridionalis can be especially important due to its early hatching, because hoppers may 
damage and destroy shoots with first leaves and tillers. The models generated for A. meridionalis 
look like quite different from the models for other steppe acridids. On the contrary, some 
resemblance between forecasts for two harmful, but quite different grasshopper species, namely 
Siberian-Mongolian A. meridionalis and East-Mediterranean A. labiata, are revealed. The models 
for both species demonstrate some possible significant depletion of the territories with suitable 
conditions for each one in the second half of the 21st century. 

 

Keywords: Acrididae, Climate change, Ellipsoid envelope model, Forecast, Grasslands, MaxEnt, Modelling, Pest management, Plant 
protection, Steppe. 

 
Citation | Yefremova, O. V., Molodtsov, V. V., Storozhenko, S. Y., 
Shamychkova, A. A., & Sergeev, M. G. (2024). The grasshopper 
arcyptera (Pararcyptera) meridionalis ikonnikov (Insecta, 
orthoptera) as a possible agricultural pest in temperate 
Asia. Agriculture and Food Sciences Research, 11(2), 52–58. 
10.20448/aesr.v11i2.5995 
History:  
Received: 10 July 2024 
Revised: 9 September 2024 
Accepted: 20 September 2024 
Published: 2 October 2024 
Licensed: This work is licensed under a Creative Commons 

Attribution 4.0 License  
Publisher: Asian Online Journal Publishing Group 
 

Funding: This research is supported by Russian Science Foundation (Grant 
number: 16-04-00706). 
Institutional Review Board Statement: Not applicable. 
Transparency: The authors confirm that the manuscript is an honest, 
accurate, and transparent account of the study; that no vital features of the 
study have been omitted; and that any discrepancies from the study as planned 
have been explained. This study followed all ethical practices during writing. 
Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no competing 
interests. 
Authors’ Contributions: Field collecting of grasshoppers, geographic 
coordinate determination, specimen identification, O.V.Y., V.V.M., S.Y.S., 
A.A.S. and M.G.S.; conceptualization, methodology, supervision, project 
administration, funding acquisition, writing, M.G.S.; data analysis, S.Y.S., 
O.V.Y. and A.A.S.; coordinate checking, map producing, modelling, V.V.M. 
and M.G.S.; validation, O.V.Y. and M.G.S.; general discussion and text 
editing, S.Y.S. and M.G.S. All authors have read and agreed to the published 
version of the manuscript. 

 

Contents 
1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 53 
2. Materials and Methods ................................................................................................................................................................... 53 
3. Results ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 54 
4. Discussion .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 57 
References .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 57 
 

mailto:oxana@fen.nsu.ru
mailto:vv@fen.nsu.ru
mailto:a.shamychkova@g.nsu.ru
mailto:storozhenko@biosoil.ru
mailto:mgs@fen.nsu.ru
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
https://www.doi.org/10.20448/aesr.v11i2.5995
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1562-5252
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9169-9934
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9269-4043
https://orcid.org/0009-0001-9458-2712
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2179-0921


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Contribution of this paper to the literature 
This is a first attempt to characterize the main ecologo-geographical peculiarities of the 
important acridid pest Arcyptera meridionalis. The species distribution over the grasslands of 
South Siberia, Mongolia and China is described in details, and the several models of this 
distribution are produced for the contemporary and future climatic conditions.    

 
1. Introduction 

The grasshopper Arcyptera meridionalis (Figure 1) is the member of the subgenus Pararcyptera Serg. Tarbinsky 
which includes several important pests, such as A. microptera (Fischer de Waldheim) and A. labiata (Brullè) [1]. All 
or almost all members of this subgenus prefer grasses and, as result, may significantly damage both different crop 
fields (e.g. wheat, rye, barley, and oat), pastures, and hayfields, especially in the Eurasian steppe and forest-steppe 
life zones [1, 2]. A. meridionalis per se may be the very serious pest across the eastern parts of the Altai-Sayan Mts. 
and the southern parts of East Siberia, and also in Mongolia and the northern parts of China [1, 3-5]. Because the 
species is an early hatching grasshopper, in many regions, the first hoppers can emerge in the end of April and in 
May and the adults are in June [6]. This means A. meridionalis is able to damage seriously shoots of different crops 
in the end of spring and in the beginning of summer. The current climate change, mainly associated with global 
warming, may result not only in species range shifts, but also in alteration of species harmful activities relative to 
some possible changes in agricultural practices. Consequences of such transformations may result, inside the 
modern range, in both increase of the species devastating effects on agricultural fields, pastures and hayfields, and 
northward shifts in the species distribution. The goal of this article is to estimate possible changes of the species 
distribution in the contemporary and potential future climatic conditions.   
 

 
Figure 1. Arcyptera meridionalis (Female) in the typical habitat (Dry steppe) of central Tuva (Republic of Tyva, Russia) 
(Photo M. G. Sergeev). 

 

2. Materials and Methods 
2.1. Territory of Investigations 

The southern parts of Siberia and the Russian Far East were studied from 1978 until 2022. In the beginning of 
the 20th century, forest-steppes, steppes, and semi-deserts covered these vast areas, however, later many habitats 
were transformed into agricultural lands (fields and pastures) [7]. In the region, mean temperatures of the 
warmest month vary between 20 °C to 26 °C and the same for the coldest month are from –6 °C to –29 °C. Mean 
annual precipitations vary between 230 to 950 mm. 
 

2.2. Field Data Acquisition  
The data used were collected during field trips. As a rule, different local habitats, particularly natural and semi-

natural grasslands and agricultural fields, were surveyed, commonly in the middle of summer. In each habitat, 
grasshoppers were observed and collected to reveal species richness, and their abundance was normally estimated 
by one or two methods, namely quantitative sampling during a fixed period of time [8] and/or the standard sweep 
nettings. Geographic coordinates were evaluated by GPS (Global Positioning System)/Glonass (Globalnaya 
Navigatsionnaya Sputnikovaya Sistema) hand-held units. The Google Earth Pro (©Google 2022) was used to 
reveal the geographic coordinates for old collections. The main part of studied specimens is in the collections of 
Novosibirsk State University, the Institute of Systematics and Ecology of Animals (Novosibirsk), and the Federal 
Scientific Center of the East Asia Terrestrial Biodiversity (Vladivostok). The data from different publications [9-
19] and from the collections of the Zoological Institute (Saint Petersburg, Russia) were also analyzed and used. As 
a result, our database contains the geographic coordinates of 73 points of the species occurrence. 
 

2.3. Species Distribution Mapping and Modelling 
Maps of species distribution were generated on the basis of geographic coordinates with QGIS 3.18.3. A 

Lambert conformal conic projection was selected as the basic map. Two distinctive packages to produce the species 
distribution models over its whole range were used. The first one (MaxEnt) is based on the machine learning [20-



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22]. The second one (ellipsenm in the R environment) is based on producing a multidimensional ellipsoid envelope 
model of an ecological niche [23]. Both are limited by only presence data and depend on the number of localities, 
selected options of modelling and collection of variables used [20-23]. In the case of the MaxEnt models, the full 
sets of the so-called standard bioclimatic variables [24, 25] were used. Their accuracy was estimated by the area 
under the receiver operating characteristic curve values (AUC) for 25 replicates with cross-validation. The possible 
effects of the bioclimatic variables were estimated by their predictive contributions and the Jackknife tests. The 
following parameters were used for the MaxEnt models: features — auto, output format — cloglog, regularization 
multiplier = 1. In the case of the ellipsoid models, the several selected bioclimatic variables, namely the annual 
mean temperature, maximal temperature of the warmest month, minimal temperature of the coldest month, annual 
precipitation, precipitation of the warmest quarter, precipitation of the coldest quarter, were used, because this 
algorithm is very sensitive to correlation between variables. 25 replicates were counted as well, the method was 
covmat and the level used to produce the ellipsoids was 99%. In all cases, the 30 arcsecond spatial resolution was 
selected. Besides, the predicted averaged bioclimatic variables for 2021–2040 and 2041–2060 [24, 25] based on the 
global climate model CNRM-ESM2-1 [26] and the 3-7.0 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (high greenhouse gas 
emissions [27]) were used to produce models for the future.  
 

3. Results 
3.1. The Actual Species Distribution 

The taxon was described from the vicinities of Qiqihar (now in the Heilongjiang Province, North-East China) 
as Arcyptera flavicosta meridionalis [9]. Later Sir B. Uvarov [10] described another subspecies of A. flavicosta, 
namely A. f. sibirica, from the southern parts of Yakutia and the Baikal region, but, in almost all cases, without exact 

geographic localities. In the monograph of Bey-Bienko and Mistshenko [28], these subspecies were synonymized. 
Later Storozhenko and Paik [29] justified its status as the distinct species. 

The northern boundary of the species range is approximately defined by the southern border of the taiga life 
zone (about 53°N), and the southern one — by the semi-deserts (about 44°N) in the inner parts of Eurasia and by 
the subtropics (about 39°N) near the Pacific coast of the continent (Figure 2). At least one insular population of the 
species was known from the southern parts of Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) [10]. The species range includes the 
southern parts of Central and East Siberia (however, in the Republic of Khakassia and the southern parts of 
Krasnoyarsk Krai, A. microptera (Fischer de Waldheim) occurs) [30] almost all Mongolia, except its southern arid 
parts [13, 15] the steppes and forest-steppes of North and North-East China [31, 32]. It is locally distributed in 
the southern parts of the Russian Far East [33, 34] in the northern parts of Korean Peninsula [14, 29, 35] and in 
the mountains of the north-eastern parts of the Tibetan Plateau [36]. Over all range, A. meridionalis occurs 
primarily in semi-arid grasslands, including the mountain ones, because its trophic preferences are commonly 
limited by grasses (Poaceae) [37]. 

 

 
Figure 2. The general distribution of Arcyptera meridionalis. 

Note: 1 — Type locality of A. flavicosta meridionalis; 2 — One of the type localities of A. flavicosta sibirica (With the geographic 
coordinates); 3 — All other localities. 

 

3.2. The Species Distribution Models 
The models of the A. meridionalis distribution for contemporary conditions show that the optimal areas for the 

species are in the steppes of the southern parts of Central and East Siberia, the northern parts of Mongolia and the 
northwestern parts of Inner Mongolia (Figure 3 and 4). Some isolated territories are also in the Angara River 
Basin (near Irkutsk), the southernmost regions of Yakutia, and several areas of the temperate Far East, where 
grasslands are relatively common. Besides, the maximum entropy model shows the regions with very suitable 
conditions for this species outside the actual species range, namely in the mountains of East Tien Shan, where 
actually another taxon from this group (A. microptera turanica Uv.) occurs. The maximum entropy model is well 
supported with AUC = 0.958 (Figure 5). 



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Figure 3. Predicted probabilities of suitable conditions for Arcyptera meridionalis (MaxEnt model, all bioclimatic variables for 
1970–2000; point-wise means for 25 replicates with cross-validation). 

 

 
Figure 4. Predicted probabilities of suitable conditions for Arcyptera meridionalis (Multidimensional ellipsoid model, selected 
bioclimatic variables for 1970–2000; point-wise means for 25 replicates). 

 



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Figure 5. Reliability test for the Arcyptera meridionalis model (All bioclimatic variables for 1970–2000; 25 
replicates with cross-validation). 

 
Several bioclimatic variables significantly contribute to the model. Among them are precipitations seasonality 

(34.5%), annual mean temperatures (16.7), temperature seasonality (15), and annual precipitation (10.9%). The 
Jackknife test enables to add several other variables, such as precipitation of the coldest quarter and minimum 
temperatures of the coldest month. Hence, very low winter temperatures may be very important for the species, 
especially in South Siberia and Mongolia where they are often coupled with thin snow cover resulting in deep soil 
freezing and high levels of acridid egg mortality (cf. [19]). 

The possible changes in the A. meridionalis distribution based on the actual data concerning its localities and 
the high greenhouse gas emissions look like relatively moderate (Figure 6). In the nearest two decades, the areas 
with very suitable conditions may remain almost the same. In 2041–2060, the optimal territory may significantly 
diminish, especially in the Angara and Selenga Rivers' Basins and in the Far East. The main region of the possible 
harmful activity will likely remain in Tuva in the central part of the Altai-Sayan Mts. and in the adjacent areas of 
West Mongolia. Besides, some problems with A. meridionalis will persist in the southeastern parts of Transbaikal 
Region (Dauria) in Russia and in the northwestern parts of Inner Mongolia in China (Figure 6, B). 

 

 
A 

 
B 

Figure 6. Predicted probabilities of suitable conditions for Arcyptera meridionalis (forecasts of all bioclimatic variables 
for 2021–2040 (A) and 2041–2060 (B) according the global climate model CNRM-ESM2-1 and the 3–7.0 Shared 
Socioeconomic Pathway; point-wise mean for 25 replicates with cross-validation). 



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4. Discussion 
Our models predict that the status of the grasshopper A. meridionalis as the important pest species will not 

change significantly in the nearest future, however, in the middle of this century, its distribution patterns will 
become more complicated. The areas those will be the most suitable for the species will remain mainly in the 
western (Tuva and North-West Mongolia) and central (the south-eastern parts of Transbaikal Region and the 
north-eastern parts of Inner Mongolia) parts of its range. Both territories are characterized by very high activity of 
herdsmen and density of grazing animals, especially sheep and goats. Besides, many plots are ploughed and used as 
agricultural fields for spring wheat, rye, and barley. In outbreak seasons, A. meridionalis may severely damage local 
grasslands and fields, particularly in the end of spring and the beginning of summer when young hoppers start to 
emerge and become active and when, in the region with an extreme continental climate and main precipitations in 
the second half of warm season, there are a few green plants in the grasslands. Such pattern is very typical for the 
Siberian-Mongolian steppes, where many grasshopper species are normally very abundant and the main period of 
their development is the middle and the end of summer [38]. Moreover, the possible harmful activity of A. 
meridionalis can be especially important due to its early hatching, particularly relative to fields of spring wheat and 
rye, because hoppers may damage and destroy shoots with first leaves and tillers. 

The models generated for A. meridionalis look like quite different from the models for other steppe orthopteran 
species, both abundant (Oedaleus decorus (Germar) [39], Bicolorana bicolor (Philippi) [40]) and rare (Miramiola 
pusilla (Miram)) [41]. The models for these three species are similar, at least for the southern parts of West Siberia, 
and show evident trend: noticeable northward shifts of the areas with very suitable conditions. However, 
surprisingly, there are some resemblance between forecasts for two related, harmful, but quite different 
grasshopper species from the subgenus Pararcyptera, namely Siberian-Mongolian A. meridionalis and East-
Mediterranean A. labiata [42]. The models for both species demonstrate some possible significant depletion of the 
territories with suitable conditions for each one in the second half of the 21st century. 
 

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https://doi.org/10.25221/fee.389.2
https://doi.org/10.1093/jisesa/ieu171
https://doi.org/10.3390/insects12010077
https://doi.org/10.3390/insects13010049
https://doi.org/10.25221/fee.496.4
https://doi.org/10.3390/insects15010055

