Available online http://amq.aiqua.it
ISSN (online): 2279-7335

Alpine and Mediterranean Quaternary, Vol. 31 (Quaternary: Past, Present, Future - AIQUA Conference, Florence, 13-14/06/2018), 11 - 12

MEDITERRANEAN SEA:
MANY MODELS AND FEW NEW OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR THE COAST,

ONLY USING THE COMPUTER WILL BE DIFFICULT TO IMPROVE THE PROJECTIONS
OF THE FUTURE SEA LEVEL

Fabrizio Antonioli

ENEA, Casaccia, Roma, Italy

Corresponding author: F. Antonioli <fabrizio.antonioli@enea.it>

ABSTRACT: Over the last few years many papers on sea level change was published without provide observational data in the field,
only using large data base and computer, this involves frequent errors in the field data interpretation.

KEYWORDS: Sea level change, model, observational data

1. INTRODUCTION

Over the last few years, many papers on sea level
change, projection for the future, observational data
reviews, isostatic models based on ice melting, have
been published, but statistically the reviews or modelling
papers are much more frequent than new observational
data papers. On the contrary, the Mediterranean coasts
still reserve many discoveries (Geoswim project, Furlani
et al., 2017a, b) and, less and less are the young re-
searchers that observe in the field, study, date, using
geomorphological, archaeological, biological markers
strictly related with sea level.

2. DATA

Pedoja et al. (2011; 2014), published a review for
the last interglacial highstand all over the world, taking
in account 890 and 926 sites. But to treat them with
analytical and statistical uniformity, Authors apply some
forcing, for example establish zero-meter as the eustatic
sea level during the MIS 5.5. The result is written in the
title of the first paper: “Relative sea-level fall since the
last interglacial stage: Are coasts uplifting worldwide?”
Using the paper by Antonioli et al. (2006), Authors
wrote, for example: “… two highstands during MIS 5e
have been deduced, either from morphological analysis
or deposits, in Tunisia (Jedoui et al., 2003), Italy
(Antonioli et al., 2006)" while in Antonioli et al. (2006),
Authors reported a tidal notch and a smoothed notch
due to isostasy contribution, therefore due to only one
highstand.

Evelpidu et al. (2012), returns to measure the same
fishtanks (Punta della Vipera, Lambeck et al., 2004)
measured by Pirazzoli (1976), again without the archae-
ologists (ignoring classical authors, included Plinius the
Elder, Columella and Varro) measuring the wrong
marker, a sea level of 2 ka BP at -50 cm, datum is con-
firmed by the predictive model Ice 5G/Selen. Using the
same model three years before (Antonioli et al., 2009)

the same Author on the same site, predicted a sea level
of -128 cm. This obviously creates a lot of confusion.

Roy and Peltier 2018, published a new model for the
Mediterranean sea (ICE 7G) but, as example, comparing
the observational data for northern Sardinia (Grotta
Verde, -11 metres at 7300 yrs BP, by Palombo et al.,
2017) with prediction, the "stable" northern Sardinia
seems to be in subsidence. In addition, also here Au-
thors (from Canada) established the sea level during
Roman age at -48 cm, without ever having seen a fish-
tank in the field.

3. REMARKS

A model before being validated must be tested on

the field in the stable areas, and possibly changed if in
disagreement with observational data (See Fig 1).

REFERENCES

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Antonioli F.

Fig 1 - Kurt Lambeck seminar at INGV on May 2018.

Ms. received: May 15, 2018
Final text received: May 22, 2018