USING THE PAST TO ENVISAGE A BETTER FUTURE: THE APPROACH OF A QUATERNARY SCIENTIST. Lucilla Capotondi 1 , Adele Bertini 2 , Emanuela Falcucci 3 , Stefano Furlani 4 , Giovanni Monegato 5 , Marco Peresani 6 , Maria Rita Palombo 7 , Paola Petrosino 8 , Cesare Ravazzi 9 , Andrea Zerboni 10 , Ilaria Mazzini 7 1 Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, ISMAR, Bologna, Italy. 2 Dipartimento di Scienze Della Terra, Università di Firenze, Firenze, Italy. 3 Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Roma, Italy. 4 Dipartimento di Matematica e Geoscienze, Università di Trieste, Trieste Italy. 5 Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, IGG, Padova, Italy. 6 Dipartimento di Studi Umanistici, Università di Ferrara, Ferrara, Italy. 7 Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, IGAG, Roma, Italy. 8 Dipartimento Scienze della Terra, dell’Ambiente e delle Risorse, Università di Napoli Federico II, Napoli, Italy. 9 Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, IGAG, Milano, Italy. 10 Dipartimento di Scienze Della Terra “Ardito Desio”, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milano, Italy. Corresponding author: L. Capotondi ABSTRACT: The study of the past is of fundamental importance in understanding the processes that control the functioning of the Earth System and the interaction between ecosystems, human society and natural variability. The Quaternary scientist produces a variety of proxies derived from the investigation of natural, archaeological and historical records covering all time scales of the history of Planet Earth, including current dynamics, and with special focus to extend the calibrations to not instrumentally registe- red time spans. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted not only the vulnerability of our world but it also has made plain for all to see the critical role of humans. On the other hand, it has produced the unexpected conditions for a large-scale experiment on the impact of sudden reduced human activities, pointing to the potential for recovery of the natural environment. In this review, we examine how data from the recent past can provide tools to understand the events taking place today and to forecast their deve- lopments in the future. Keywords: Quaternary, nature-human interaction, ecosystems, risk, interdisciplinary approach. Available online http://amq.aiqua.it ISSN (print): 2279-7327, ISSN (online): 2279-7335 Alpine and Mediterranean Quaternary, 34 (2), 2021, 257-275 1. INTRODUCTION During the last couple of centuries, human activi- ties produced a wide range of environmental changes at unprecedented rates, including changes that are novel to Earth history and that eventually became global in extent (Waters et al., 2016). It has been stated in key streams of scientific literature that the increased anthro- pogenic activities (i.e., industrialization, nuclear fallout, microplastic contamination) in the last two decades pol- luted the atmosphere and hydrosphere, and impacted both biosphere and climate more than natural variability could (IPCC, 2018). Yet, before the Industrial Revolution (or Late Anthropocene sensu Waters et al., 2016; Stef- fen et al., 2018) humans modified the biosphere influ- encing the climate at regional and global scale, causing changes in sediment fluxes and the ecosphere through fires, deforestation, irrigation, dams and farming (Dearing, 2006; Williams et al., 2014), thus supporting the parallel concept of Palaeoanthropocene (Foley et al., 2013). Human beings affect nature in numerous ways, which induce changes in climate, ecosystems, and land vulnerability. The effects of the accelerating human im- pacts towards the end of the century (Steffen et al., 2015) drove the Earth out of the Holocene epoch in which agriculture, sedentary communities, and eventual- ly, socially and technologically complex human societies developed (Steffen et al., 2018). Human impact could irreversibly alter the Earth system, as the current magni- tude and rate of some human changes far exceeds the rates of change driven by geophysical or biosphere forc- es that have modified the Earth System trajectory in the past, and even abrupt geophysical events do not ap- proach current rates of human-driven change (Steffen et al., 2018). For example, the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Max- https://doi.org/10.26382/AMQ.2021.16 258 Capotondi L. et al. imum (PETM) at 56 Ma BP (before present), a warming event that reached 5-6°C and lasted about 100,000 years, accompanied by a rise in sea level and ocean acidification, drove the extinction of 35-50% of the deep marine benthic foraminifera and led to continent-scale changes in the distributions of terrestrial plants and ani- mals (Schneider von Deimling et al., 2015). The warm- ing was driven by a carbon release estimated to be ~1.1 Gt C y-1 (IPCC, 2013). By comparison, the current hu- man release of carbon to the atmosphere at ~10 Gt C y- 1 is greater by nearly an order of magnitude (IPCC, 2013). Cumulative human emissions of CO2 from 1870 through 2017 have reached ~610 Gt C (IPCC, 2013). Recently the occurrence of the acute respiratory syn- drome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), linked to corona- virus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has emphasized the need to enhance the mutually-affective connection be- tween humans and nature (Chin et al., 2020; Yunus et al., 2020). In this contest, as Quaternary scientists fo- cused on the interaction between natural and past and present anthropogenic processes, we aim to discuss this topic within the framework of the Italian territory, underlining the need of urgent actions in order to cor- rectly plan a sustainable management of our territory. Indeed, integrated Quaternary research shows that de- ciphering the complex network of mechanisms driving past environmental change, and the resulting timelines of the dynamic history of the planet, is of crucial rele- vance to plan appropriate conservation actions and to collect insights into future scenarios for Earth ecosys- tems. 2. THE QUATERNARY SCIENTISTS OF THE 20 TH CENTURY - THE GROWING IDENTITY OF THE SCHOLAR OF THE RECENT PAST The Quaternary sciences grew up during the 20 th century, partly as a reaction to the splitting of natural sciences into their a-biological and biological compo- nents and the cultural divergence between the human- istic and the scientific approaches (Izdebski et al., 2016). Interdisciplinary studies are a pre-requisite for the study of the history of the environment and the func- tioning of ecosystems. In the meantime, a considerable degree of model flexibility is necessary when tackling the natural and cultural history, given that factors and processes vary in time and space. As a matter of fact, modern global change brings about phenomena unre- ported in the written recorded history, but visible inside the Quaternary record (Elias, 2007). Multifactoriality, connectivity and unpredictable internal variability make history a difficult subject to be modelled and split up, even when humans are not involved. Quaternary investigations involve researchers from different disciplines in order to integrate information from geology, archaeology, palaeoanthropology, botany, biology, zoology, climatology, chemistry, physics, etc.. The dialogue between different disciplines and the spe- cific interdisciplinary, more than multidisciplinary, ap- proach are the key for the study of the Quaternary. Qua- ternary studies are focused on the last periods in the stratigraphic scale, including current dynamics, thus also providing fundamental predictive tools to under- stand the present and suggest future scenarios. This allows for diversified viewpoints on natural phenomena and processes compared to colleagues from other geo- logical disciplines or focused on older periods. Addition- ally, the Quaternary scientist faces large sets of prob- lems related to the climate / environment / human nex- us, developing a particular sensitivity towards natural processes and their repercussions on society, and vice versa (Forman & Stinchcomb, 2015). The research on this interval helps understanding how natural causes of (paleo)climate change strictly interact with human-driven modern climate change. On the other hand, the Quater- nary scientist establishes specific synergies with the biological sciences providing a historical long-term per- spective (Willis & Birks, 2006; Nogué et al., 2017) that sometimes lacks in the analysis of the living biota and could leverage the past to shape sustainable solutions to the current challenges (Boivin & Crowther, 2021). Thus, a deep integration between biogeophysical Earth System science and social sciences and humanities aims to put the dynamics of human societies in a global perspective. At present, scientists use models to understand how human activity is affecting the Earth’s climate and to provide long-term projections of climate change under different anthropogenic emission scenarios . The models should represent the processes and interactions that drive the Earth’s climate, including the atmosphere, oceans, land, and ice-covered regions of the planet. Model agreement and confidence in projections depend on the used variables and spatial and temporal averag- ing. Additionally, determining which of the multitude of models is most appropriate remains difficult and uncer- tainties in projected future climate conditions remain a challenge. Forecasts need the observation of climate variability over long time intervals in order to define the different environmental scenarios subjected to changes and to know the subsequent response of the ecosys- tems. Current ecosystem processes can often only be understood by looking back even longer. The observa- tion of climate variability over long time intervals is there- fore essential for scholars to record the different modes and timing scales of dynamic interactions. International efforts for uncovering hidden processes in ecological research "because they occur slowly" (Magnuson, 1990) generated the Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) infrastructure: a network of terrestrial, freshwater, transi- tional and marine sites, now active at European and global scale (Mirtl et al., 2021). LTER represents one of the main novel approaches for analyzing how ecosys- tems change over time, and for describing and interpret- ing natural variability as opposed to ‘human-made’ varia- bility. However, current LTER research is carried out at decadal and secular scale (i.e., at the scale of human generations) and would benefit from longer time scales used by Quaternary scientists through the use of multi- ple proxies. The Quaternary approach helps deciphering the Earth system dynamics that are controlled by nonlinear processes, interactions, and feedbacks. The Twentieth century saw tremendous advances in understanding how the world works physically, chemically, biologically, 259 Using the past to envisage a better future: the approach of a Quaternary scientist and socially and in the applications of that knowledge to human endeavors. Technology plays an important role in terms of both challenges and solutions, but it is worth of note that the complexity of nature is beyond our means of observation. Both natural and anthropogenic factors intersect mutually and technological action that does not take into account the totality of factors leads to the degradation of ecosystems. Yet the consequences of excess greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are already under our eyes, like climate change and ocean acidification. Innovative approaches to solve the prob- lems at hand in our complex human-environment inter- actions require closer collaboration between scientists and managers. Inter- and transdisciplinary integration is continuously gaining importance in research programs and Research Infrastructure, development strategies (Mirtl et al., 2021) and all these issues are addressed by Quaternary investigations. 3. THE QUATERNARY HISTORY OF ENVIRONMENT- HUMAN INTERACTION Since its appearance on Earth, human population grew and bio-culturally evolved up to colonize extreme landscapes. The huge number of traces unveiled from archaeo-anthropological and geoarchaeological records preserves an array of information that allows interpreting the interaction between climatic/environmental changes and humans since the earliest prehistory. Natural ar- chives (e.g. ice sheets, lake, peat, river and marine sed- iments, speleothems, palaeosoils, loess, tree rings) as much as anthropogenic stratigraphic sequences (open air, underwater and cave/rock shelter archaeological sites), bear palaeoenvironmental proxy data useful to evaluate the responses of ecological communities to (i) shifts from glacial to interglacial conditions or (ii) arid to humid environmental settings, (iii) rapid or gradual land- scape changes, and (iv) climate-induced variations in the availability of water and food, which were the main factors driving human migrations (Rotilio, 2015) along- side with other resources. For instance, such evidence includes different adaptation to new environmental set- tings (Pini et al., 2020), resilience of human groups liv- ing in marginal environments, and eventually the col- lapse of societies or the relocation of entire population with the consequent abandonment of specific regions (Brooks, 2006; Butzer, 2012; Nicoll & Zerboni, 2020). Despite this general trend, a growing number of palaeo- environmental and archaeological studies distributed world-wide are shedding new light on the climate/ environment/human nexus, and especially are highlight- ing its complexity and non-linearity (Boivin & Crowther, 2021). If we consider early prehistory, the relationships between environmental modifications and human re- sponse seem to be generally unidirectional (environment  humankind). Indeed, since the Early- Middle Pleistocene Transition, the increased magnitude of glacial cycles combined with unstable climatic condi- tions deeply influenced human population dynamics, punctuated by the effects of the “ebb and flow” process. Contractions in population density up to the disappear- ance of any trace of human presence across vast areas of Western Eurasia were forced by the harshest climatic conditions with the maximum extension of the ice sheets. On the contrary, favorable conditions which oc- curred during the Middle Pleistocene interglacials pro- moted the growing of human population (Hublin & Roebroeks, 2009). However, Palaeolithic hunter- gatherers expanded their ecological niches only from the late Middle Pleistocene onwards, as supported by a set of cultural improvements, consisting in the production of fire as energy budget (Roebroeks & Villa, 2011), in more effective technologies in stone knapping than in older times, innovation of domestic toolkits and hunting imple- ments, and others. In the Middle and Late Pleistocene Eurasia, Neanderthal native populations were bio- culturally adapted to survive in an array of environments through the maintenance of equilibrate ecological rela- tions (Conard & Richter, 2011). During the Late Pleisto- cene, their number contracted until their definitive disap- pearance around 40 ka cal BP in coincidence with the spread of Homo sapiens (Hublin, 2015). Among several hypotheses proposed for identifying the forcing factors responsible of the Neanderthal extinction (Vaesen et al., 2021) disease burden, infections and stress on immune systems (Greenbaum et al., 2019), and UVB radiations increase (Channell & Vigliotti, 2019) have been consid- ered as the most likely. Surprisingly, a recent study re- vealed how a major genetic risk factor for severe symp- toms after SARS-CoV-2 infection is related to a Nean- derthal genomic segment that is carried by people in south Asia and in Europe (Zeberg & Pääbo, 2020). In- deed, aside their biological and cultural worldwide affir- mation and long-term mixing with native Pleistocene people (Haidinjak et al., 2021), Upper Palaeolithic ana- tomically modern humans experienced dramatic biologi- cal turnovers, with severe population bottlenecks across the Late Pleistocene as well, as attested from discontin- uous archaeological record (Djindjian et al., 1999; Bocquet-Appel et al., 2005; Maier et al., 2016) and pal- aeogenetic studies (Fu et al., 2016; Posth et al., 2016; Bortolini et al., 2021). The multiscale shifts that occurred from the Last Glacial Maximum to the onset of the Late Glacial Bølling interstadial (14.7 ka cal BP) are consid- ered to be among the most important events. Genetic discontinuities due to long-range migrations progressive- ly contributed to shape the nature of the population dy- namics that accompanied the modern human re- expansion into the Boreal Hemisphere (Stoneking & Krause, 2011) and the consequent exacerbation of most Pleistocene megafauna from Eurasia (see section 4). Environmental changes associated to rapid climatic shifts are considered the leading factors in these extinc- tion processes. Indeed, since their first appearance in the Boreal Hemisphere, modern humans have also con- tributed to destabilize megafauna metapopulation struc- tures and to the collapse of the related ecosystems (Cooper et al., 2015). Holocene records suggest that human transfor- mation and landscape management increased since the Neolithic Revolution (Hole, 1984; Robb & Van Hove, 2003; Zanchetta et al., 2013; Cremaschi, 2014; Zerboni & Nicoll, 2019). Human agency in shaping Earth ecosys- tems played a long-term and increasing role (ArchaeoGLOBE Project, 2019) and its effects influ- enced our planet at different resolution scales, from local to global. Their influence on geomorphological process- es included the enhancement of slow ongoing natural surface processes, the establishment of new geomor- phological processes, and changes of the natural inter- actions in the critical zone (Price et al., 2011) resulting in an intentional and un-intentional human agency on ecosystems. The transition from the subsistence of hunters-fishers-gatherers based on the collection of natural resources, to the economy of food production - the so-called Neolithic Revolution (Childe, 1936) - and its consequent demographic increase (Bocquet-Appel, 2011) onset the positive feedback mechanism of a con- tinuously increasing demand of resources. Food produc- tion (either based upon cultivation or herding) increased since the Neolithic Revolution, which occurred at differ- ent times in each region of the planet. The common effect on the environment was the progressive modifica- tion of pristine ecosystems and the introduction of new ones (Cremaschi, 2014; Pini et al., 2017; Archaeo- GLOBE Project, 2019; Boivin & Crowther, 2021). Land use shifts and human agency like wood clearance and deforestation, timberline depression, grazing, farming, exploitation of water resources, and modification of natural hydrography (Evans, 1998; Sa- dori et al., 2011; Cremaschi et al., 2016; Henry et al., 2017; Regattieri et al., 2019; Mariani et al., 2020; Morri- son et al., 2021) had several effects on the landscape that included changes in soils, shallow aquifers, atmos- phere composition, vegetation turnover and overall bio- diversity (Odgaard, 1999; Perego, 2017; Nogué et al., 2021). In the last two centuries, human forcing over the natural climate variability became evident, as a conse- quence of the abnormal increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which was promoted by anthropo- genic emissions (Crutzen, 2002). 4. THE ECOSYSTEM ANSWER TO PHANEROZOIC CHANGES AND THE PRESENT-DAY GLOBAL CHANGE: RESILIENCE AND/OR SIXTH EXTINCTION? The impact extent of anthropogenic factors on present-day ecosystem functioning and biodiversity integrity is a matter of an endless debate among scien- tists. Biodiversity is declining globally at rates unprece- dented in human history - and the rate of species extinc- tions is accelerating. Based on the recently published IUCN report (IUCN, 2020), about 67.64% of animal spe- cies disappeared from the wild during the last 70 years. Available evidence points out the process acceleration as expected due to the continuous intensification of ecological stressors directly or indirectly linked to human activities. For instance, the monitoring of almost 21,000 populations of mammals, birds, amphibians, reptiles and fishes observed around the world between 1970 and 2016 shows a reduction of about 62%-73% (WWF, 2020). Moreover, since the actual status of a number of species and subspecies is unknown and various spe- cies have been not formally identified/described, the magnitude of the contemporary biodiversity depletion may be underestimated (Palombo, 2021). Consequent- ly, also considering the current number of critically en- dangered and vulnerable species (IUCN, 2020), the idea of an ongoing sixth mass extinction became popu- lar (Barnosky et al., 2011; Dirzo et al., 2014; Payne et al., 2016; Ceballos et al., 2017 and references therein). Species extinction was a recurrent phenomenon during the 560 Myr-long history of the Phanerozoic, but the decline of biodiversity was generally outweighed by the appearance of new species, except for five geologi- cally short times (End-Ordovician ~440 Ma, Late Devoni- an ~370-350 Ma, End-Permian ~250 Ma, End-Triassic ~220-200 Ma, and End-Cretaceous ~65 Ma) when the Earth lost more than three-quarters of its species (Raup & Sepkoski, 1986; Jablonski, 1994; Bambach, 2006; Barnoski et al., 2011). Although these “Big-Five” mass extinctions differed in magnitude, temporal extent, and complexity of dynamics, all were triggered by natural events sometimes synergically acting (e.g. sea-level and climate change, including global warming, ocean anoxia and acidification, volcanism, large meteorite impacts, and other abiotic changes in the biosphere) (Palombo, 2021). Their cascading effects protracted for hundreds of thousands to millions of years, followed by millions or tens of millions of years of biological recovery and biodi- versity increase (Erwin, 2001). Climate forcing, acknowledged for most pre- Quaternary extinction events, was the crucial factor driv- ing flora and fauna turnovers during the Pleistocene, inducing structural changes and latitudinal displace- ments in terrestrial biomes that greatly influenced flora and fauna dynamics. Mammal species, for instance, mainly reacted to ecosystem disturbances by varying their geographic range. The Pleistocene climatic oscilla- tions (including glaciations, as well as periods of in- creasing aridity), triggered the secular, long-distance dispersal of several mammal species that entered and colonized new territory, upsetting the equilibrium of the pre-existing communities, leading to the extirpation/ replacement of stenoecious/less competitive species and stimulating new individual responses in other spe- cies. As a result, ecosystems significantly restructured during a long recovery period, though no real extinction events occurred (Palombo, 2021). The Late Pleistocene/ Early Holocene megafauna extinction (LPME) was an exception, but it was an event of very small magnitude if compared to the Palaeozoic and Mesozoic mass extinc- tion events. The LPME causal mechanisms are still de- bated. Two main counterpoised hypotheses have been proposed that consider climatic changes and human hunting (overkilling) as the most likely drivers of LPME (Monjeau et al., 2017). Although prehistoric hunters likely increased the risk or accelerated the process of extinction for species already stressed by environmental changes, the available evidence indicates the latest Pleistocene climatic changes as one of the dominant factors causing local extirpations, global extinctions and loss of biodiversity. The current global warming can be regarded as one, but possibly not the major factor causing the ongo- ing biodiversity depletion. The actual impact of climate warming on flora and fauna (particularly on the less eco- logically flexible) and its related effects on other species and ecosystem functioning is quite difficult to determine (Botkin et al., 2007). Nonetheless, it could be argued Capotondi L. et al. 260 5. NATURAL HAZARDS, RISK AND HUMAN PRESENCE (CASE STUDIES IN ITALY) Natural hazards are among the "environmental problems" currently capturing so much public attention: they are naturally designed to modify ecosystems, but, in many cases, they reflect the impact of humans on their environments, and can largely affect human popu- lations. The switch from hazard to risk occurs when a hazardous phenomenon turns into a disaster and be- comes responsible for a great loss of assets and even for casualties (UNISDR, 2009). Correct practices of terri- torial planning and management are hence needed to reduce damaging effects. It is well known that under certain circumstances and conditions, the action of hu- mans can actively determine - or at least strongly con- tribute to determine hazard related to natural phenome- na to which humans get exposed. These events are actually “human-made natural hazards”. In order to reduce vulnerability and achieve sus- tainable development targets, humans need to improve their knowledge of the environmental dynamics of the territory they live in and of the related hazards. The Nat- ural Hazard Risk Atlas (2015) reports Italy as the eighth country in the world, and the first in Europe, in terms of exposure to natural hazards. In this contest, we focus here on the Italian territory on view of its peculiar geological, morphological, and climatic characteristics (Fig. 1). The position of the Ital- ian peninsula at the convergence of the Eurasian and the African Plate causes intense seismicity in most of the Italian territory. Additionally, geomorphological con- ditions along with land use changes and the frequent extreme rainfalls induced by climate change (Fisher & Knutti, 2016) make Italy very prone to flooding and land- slides. Furthermore, wide sectors of the ca. 7500 kilo- meters long Italian coastline is exposed to coastal flood hazard expected to become even more dangerous in the next decades due to sea level rise (Bonaldo et al., 2019; Antonioli et al., 2020). In 2014, a significant flood epi- sode occurred in Genova (Liguria, N Italy) strongly relat- ed to the dense urbanization of the terminal sections of streams and rivers. In general, streams and river beds constrained into small artificial channels or even en- tombed underground into undersized human-made tun- nels (Acquaotta et al., 2019) are the principal causes of flood disasters in the present climatic phase character- ized by abrupt and extreme rainfall events (Pfahl et al., 2017). During the mid-Holocene, an increase of precipi- tations determined an increase of the rate of landslide events in Europe (Soldati et al., 2004; Patton et al., 2019). Similarly, the melting of permafrost determines an increase of local gravitational instabilities (Matthews et al., 2018). Nonetheless, human-made alteration of slope natu- ral profiles, intense deforestation or even construction of infrastructures can make a slope gravitationally unstable and expose humans to risks caused by their own prac- tices. A well-known case is represented by the Vajont landslide, whose occurrence was favored by the realiza- tion of an artificial dam and the creation of an artificial hydrologic basin at the toe of Mt. Toc (Genevois & Tec- ca, 2013). that it might be more important than during most of the Quaternary due to the magnification effect produced by anthropogenic ecological stressors (e.g., Palombo, 2021). Human activities prompted profound modifica- tions of natural community structure, merging human- introduced invasive exotic species (including pathogenic organisms) and native species, confining wild species within modified habitats, overharvesting terrestrial and marine resources, conditioning how mammals live and move through the human-altered landscape, causing the destruction and fragmentation of the world’s richest eco- systems, such as tropical forests, wetlands and savan- nahs. Irreversibility on a human time scale (which is what we are interested in) likely has crucial effects on short-term environmental sustainability, with consequent impacts on human well-being because it affects the amount and availability of ecosystem resources and services that we require to survive (Díaz et al., 2020). In addition, as stressed by Ceballos et al. (2020) a further threat for human health and well-being would be the spread of viruses linked to wildlife trade (a concurrent cause of population and species extirpations and extinc- tions). A recent example is the current pandemic coro- navirus disease (COVID-19). Human population is rapid- ly growing and human pressure on the biosphere and human-caused extinction is likely to accelerate. The species surviving in regions with high human impacts, under the action of anthropogenic ecological stressors and related feedbacks will likely further reduce their population number and size and ultimately disappear, triggering regional biodiversity collapses. In the near future, many severely endangered species will likely disappear all over the world as evidenced by data on the Biodiversity Intactness Index trend in different regions, particularly influenced by the effects of land use and related pressures (Scholes & Biggs, 2005; Newbold et al., 2016; WWF, 2020). Deconstructing the complex network of mechanisms driving fauna and flora dynam- ics during the Pleistocene, deciphering the relationship between extinction selectivity and extinction intensity, and understanding the past causal factors promoting ecosystem dynamics and the resilience of vulnerable ecosystems to Quaternary climate changes is of crucial relevance for better understanding the actual extent of the role of human activity in amplifying the already sig- nificant negative effects produced by global warming. Understanding the processes that regulated the impact of Pleistocene climatic change on biodiversity dynamics, flora and fauna turnovers, species replacement and extirpation could provide interesting clues to predict the current effects of climate change on biodiversity loss (Barnosky et al., 2011; Willis & MacDonald, 2011; Pal- ombo, 2021). A lesson from the recent past as the Pleistocene fauna dynamics, highlights the relevance of landscape connectivity and the dangerous role of invasive species in preserving the vitality of wild population. It enables us to better understand the actual meaning of the present defaunation and plant biodiversity loss and to promote suitable conservation actions for the conservation of biodiversity in view of the ongoing climate warming and modifications of ecosystems. Using the past to envisage a better future: the approach of a Quaternary scientist 261 Capotondi L. et al. Fig. 1 - Maps of some of the geological “hazard” of the Italian territory. In detail: a) map of landslide and hydraulic hazard (ISPRA, ISPRA Rapporti 287/2018); b) map of seismic hazard (Stucchi et al., 2004; Ordinanza PCM n. 3519_2006); c) map of volcanic hazard of the Cam- pania multi-source area, for possible future explosive eruptions of Campi Flegrei, Ischia Island or Somma-Vesuvius (from Lirer et al., 2010). 262 Another vulnerability of the Italian territory is repre- sented by sinkhole risk. Sinkholes commonly occur as features of karstic processes (dissolution of carbonate rocks) and their evolution into paroxysmal collapses of portions of ground surface. However, in anthropogenic environments and urbanized areas, the construction of underground infrastructures, lifelines or pipelines (such as aqueducts or sewer nets) can determine the condi- tions (i.e., underground erosion, water under- excavation) that can lead to human-induced local and abrupt subsidence, potentially resulting in the genera- tion of sinkholes (Gutiérrez et al., 2014). Concerning the seismicity risk, although it is not possible to deterministically predict and prevent earth- quake occurrences, environmental protection guidelines and correct practices could mitigate the risk associated to earthquakes (i.e., ground shaking, landslides, surface faulting). In the past decades an increasing number of proofs testifies to the occurrence of seismicity - small-to- moderate magnitude seismic events - in areas interest- ed by human activities. Such a phenomenon is referred to as induced and/or triggered seismicity, that means earthquakes induced or triggered by human exploitation of underground natural resources, fluid extraction or injection, wastewater disposal. One of the largest known seismic events of this kind is represented by the Mw 5.8 earthquake occurred in 2016, in Oklahoma (Moschetti et al., 2019). Wastewater injection into a high-rate well in the Val d'Agri oilfield (southern Italy), the largest in on- shore Europe, has induced swarm microseismicity since the initiation of disposal (Improta et al., 2017). It is worth of note that Quaternary tectonic studies are essential for modern seismic hazard assessment because they represent an important tool to determine the seismic potential of seismogenic faults over much longer time periods than instrumental measurements, historical catalogues or onshore paleoseismic records (Nelson et al., 2012). Moreover, as a specific field of application, Quaternary stratigraphy in the paleoseismo- logical perspective of coastal, marine and lake environ- ments has provided essential input to seismic and tsu- nami hazard assessments of coastal areas threatened by the effects of local and distant earthquakes (Gràcia et al., 2013). The activity of the volcanoes that punctuate the Italian territory (Ischia, Campi Flegrei, Somma- Vesuvius, Etna, Stromboli and Vulcano at Aeolian Is- lands) represents an important source of risk, as well. Nonetheless, in our country as in most of the Mediterra- nean area the fertility of soils generally associated to the favorable geographic location (mostly along the coast- line) of active volcanic areas encouraged human settle- ments over time (Cottrell, 2015; Freire et al., 2019). Differently from earthquakes, which are instantaneous phenomena whose occurrence cannot be temporally predicted to date, volcanic eruptions have several pre- cursory signals (principally seismic shakes, ground de- formation, heat flux, compositional changes in volcanic gas and fluids) that, when correctly monitored, allow to forecast the occurrence of an eruption. Thanks to the accurate and timely monitoring of these signals, the frequent volcanic crises linked to paroxysmal phases of open-conduit activity at Etna and Stromboli are success- fully managed by the Italian Civil Protection. In as much, very detailed pre-event evacuation plans have been prepared in conjunction with Campania Region authori- ties for the areas possibly endangered by future explo- sive eruptions of Somma-Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei. Planning an evacuation is always a difficult task, mostly because of the uncertainty in the occurrence of an erup- tion, and it is even more difficult when evacuation plans involve several hundreds of thousands of people. Peo- ple preparedness joined to a performing network of vol- canic surveillance for the short-term forecast are essen- tial to prevent disasters at active volcanoes. Recent studies have improved volcanic risk management by advancing the basic scientific and technological skills employed in risk assessment and mitigation, producing updated computer models, vulnerability databases, and probabilistic risk assessment protocols (Thierry et al., 2015). Sea level has risen from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to nowadays and strongly modified the land- scape, covering wide areas that are presently sub- merged, such as large part of the Adriatic Sea, or many submerged natural bridges, such as the one between Calabria and Sicily (Antonioli et al., 2014). Human con- structions located along the coasts are exposed to flood- ing risk. Nonetheless, for millennia humans have exploit- ed coastal areas since they supply resources and pro- vide a space for trading, as testified by hundreds of his- torical and archaeological structures at or below sea level. The recent increasing rate of sea level rise, if not slowed down or inverted, could cause an increase in the frequency of flooding events in many coastal regions interested by low-lying coasts and affect most of the human activities there. The fragility of the city of Venice and its inestimable geological, cultural, historical, and artistic heritage represents a paradigm in the interaction between natural and human-induced high-water phe- nomena and the need to preserve the valuable city (Zanchettin et al., 2021). The knowledge of the quoted hazardous phenome- na (through the comprehension of the predisposing and triggering factors) and the awareness of the role of hu- mans in potentially being a “risk” for themselves is the key to correctly plan the use of territories, in the view of a desirable sustainable development. The final aim of this correct behavior is leaving to natural phenomena the role of “potential hazards” and preventing them to become “risks”. Thus, adequate preventive policies to- wards catastrophic events are strongly needed, along with a punctual regulation of the construction of build- ings and infrastructures and in general of respect for the environment. 6. CLIMATE CHANGES, HUMAN HEALTH AND PANDEMIC DISEASE Understanding the potential interaction between pandemic disease and climate is complex, as pointed out by many studies carried out in different areas of the world including the Mediterranean region (McMichael, 2012; Luterbacher et al., 2020). Throughout the Late Holocene, the atmospheric CO2 concentration trapped in ice-cores documents an increasing trend (Rubino et al., Using the past to envisage a better future: the approach of a Quaternary scientist 263 2019). Some short-term drops (decades or more in du- ration) of this record, detected during the past two mil- lennia are associated by some scientists with pandemic events responsible for high human mortality (Ruddiman, 2007, 2010). Based on this idea, the CO2 decreases (corresponding to cool-to-cold events) detected at ca A.D. 540 and 1350, are related with the pandemics oc- curring during the Roman period (the Plague of Justini- an, in A.D. 540 to 542 and the “Black Death” between 1347 and 1352). Another significant drop in CO2 around 1500 to 1800 coincides with the catastrophic conse- quences of the arrival in America of Europeans since 1492, inducing smallpox and other diseases in pre- Columbian populations. The consequences of these pandemics as reported by several historical sources are expressed, first of all, by massive mortality rates (Crosby, 2003; McMichael, 2012; Koch et al., 2019). This in turn provoked widespread abandonment of rural villages and farms, reduced agricultural activity, and forests recovery (estimated in just 50 years). As a con- sequence, during pandemics the restored forests could have sequestered sufficient carbon to reduce concentra- Capotondi L. et al. Fig. 2 - An unprecedented water transparency Venice (Northern Italy) was determined by the reduction of boat traffic and tourism (Braga et al., 2020). The top image, captured 13 April 2020, shows a distinct lack of boat traffic compared to the image from 19 April 2019. (Image credit: contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data (2019-20), processed by ESA, CC BY-SA 3.0 IGO). 264 tions of CO2 in the atmosphere as attested in palaeore- cords. On the other hand, the end of the pandemic epi- sodes promoted the reestablishment of the population in abandoned areas and the recovery of agriculture (deforestation, etc.) with the consequent increase of atmospheric CO2 (and temperature) values. This hy- pothesis (Ruddiman, 2007) clearly refers to global scale effects and require careful analyses of the geographical extent of pandemics and real mortality rates. This sub- ject has been a matter of considerable debate in recent years (i.e., for the Justinian plague, Mordechai et al., 2019). The importance of the fossil record is also evident from recent discoveries that highlighted the role played by pathogens in the history of ancient empires and civili- zations by isolating the genetic sequence of viruses and bacteria from human remains (Wagner et al., 2014; Rascovan et al., 2019; Spyrou et al., 2019a, b). Most of the pandemics cited above were caused by the bacte- rium Yersina pestis, including the European Neolithic catastrophe about 5,000 years ago, when early Bronze age populations came down from the steppe to take the place of the Neolithic farming communities of Europe (Close, 2021). Instead, the cocoliztli pandemics that devastated the Aztec empire were caused by bacteria belonging to the Salmonella genus (Close, 2021). The possibility that the geological record offers to identify and document (i) pandemic events over a long period of time, (ii) the source-areas of diffusion, and (iii) their effects on populations and environments, are espe- cially relevant for the contribution to medical research, today much more prepared than in the past in the fight against pathogens. However, despite the remarkable progress of science in various fields, including the fast development of a vaccine for COVID-19, the current environmental context, i.e., fast and easy global/ interplanetary travels (communications, interchanges, etc.) and climatic conditions marked by short-term dras- tic events, open up new challenges. Among them, the different rate of forcing (fast worldwide spread of pan- demics) vs (slower human) response is one of the main critical aspects. 7. THE RECENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONTEXT AND CONSERVATION PALEOBIOLOGY The COVID-19 pandemic has produced the unex- pected conditions for a large-scale short-term experi- Using the past to envisage a better future: the approach of a Quaternary scientist Fig. 3 - Examples of waste accumulation at the mouth of the Tiber River (Latium, Italy). Top image the Tiber River sediment plume in the Tyrrhenian Sea (Image credit: contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data (2019-20), processed by ESA, CC BY-SA 3.0 IGO). Bottom left image: face mask waste along the beach of Fiumicino (17 April 2021). Bottom right image: plastic waste accumulation at Fiumara Grande (29 December 2020) (both images courtesy of Martina Pierdomenico). 265 ment on the impact of sudden reduced human mobility on land, at sea (Rutz et al., 2020) and in the air. Italy, being the first European country to perform a country- wide lockdown from March 11 th until May 4 th 2020, has experienced two months of unprecedented reduction of human disturbance in the industrial period. Satellite images have shown a dramatic improvement of air qual- ity (data from Copernicus Sentinel-5P about fluctuation of NO2 concentrations across Europe from 1-1-2020 until 11-2-2020, www.esa.int/ESA_Multimedia/ Videos/2020/03/Coronavi rus_ni t rogen_dioxide _emissions_drop_over_Italy) and recent studies have shown a significant reduction of PM10, PM2.5, BC, ben- zene, CO and NOx in Milan (Northern Italy) as an effect of the lockdown during last spring (Collivignarelli et al., 2020). The exceptional conditions that emptied Venice of millions of tourists and thousands of gondolas and vaporetti (Fig. 2), together with natural seasonal factors, produced unprecedented low levels of suspended sedi- ment and water transparency conditions (Braga et al., 2020). Limitations in human mobility have provided ben- efits to wildlife in general (Manenti et al., 2020), alt- hough the records are always biased toward more ap- pealing and visible taxa (Batt, 2009) and trends of inver- tebrates and plants need to be investigated. A potential way to understand how ecological resilience is main- tained even in the face of drastic changes is represent- ed by the conservation biology merged with palaeobiolo- gy (Fordham et al., 2020). This emerging discipline ap- plies geohistorical records to the conservation and res- toration of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Since geologists can study times well beyond the limited frame of direct human observations, the use of geohistorical records could lead to a long-term perspective on eco- systems, species and communities of the recent past. A study about the opportunistic bivalve Corbula gibba in the Gulf of Trieste, has demonstrated that the youngest fossil record (Holocene-Recent) could document the abrupt ecological changes affecting benthic communi- ties during the 20 th century (Fuksi et al., 2018). The C. gibba size variations (from 5 to 10-15 mm) were proba- bly driven by a transition towards higher frequency of seasonal hypoxia (Tomašových et al., 2020). The fora- minifer and ostracod assemblages of the Po River coastal plain were investigated with a conservation pal- aeobiology approach (Barbieri et al., 2020) providing a high-resolution palaeoecological record under the influ- ence of Holocene sea-level rise, in analogy with the present-day global change. The recently discovered collapse of the native molluscan biodiversity along the Israeli Mediterranean shelf (Albano et al., 2021) has been related both to the fast pace of warming of sea water and the Lessepsian migration through the Suez Canal. With their palaeobiological conservation ap- proach, Albano et al. (2021) provided a snapshot of an irreversible change defined as “novel ecosystem”. It is not possible to estimate the extent of the impact of COVID-19 as there is no robust data on hand for the analysis of trends in sedimentation rates, heavy metal contamination, algal blooming, invertebrate benthic community changes. Although pollution in general is decreased, the worldwide resurgence in the use of dis- posable personal protective equipment (PPE) and of disposable items in restaurants and other businesses to operate safely is a new potential source for microplastic pollution (Espejo et al., 2020). For Italy alone, a country with 60.4 million inhabitants, PPE needs for the popula- tion during deconfinement has been estimated as 1 bil- lion face masks and 0.5 billion gloves per month. This sums up to the average amount of plastic waste re- leased in the environment that normally accumulates on land, in the lakes, rivers and along the coasts of Italy (Fig. 3). On the contrary, household waste production has generally decreased during the pandemic, falling by 28% in Milan (Prata et al., 2020). We could be relatively certain that the COVID-19 pandemic will leave a clear signal in the sediments. Not only such a signal will be temporally well defined and globally distributed but could be an excellent test to examine the response mecha- nisms of living populations to different stress factors. 8. CONCLUDING REMARKS: RECONSIDERING THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN HUMANS AND ECOSYSTEMS ON THE ITALIAN TERRITORY It is evident that we are in a strongly transient phase in which human societies, the biosphere and the climate system are all changing at very rapid rates and our usual activities are necessarily modified. The diffu- sion of the COVID-19 virus highlighted the weakness of our actions towards the protection of our planet as well as our dysfunctional relationship with nature. During the global 2020 lockdown, when population was confined home for a long period of time ranging from a few weeks up to a few months and with nearly the total absence of activities influencing the Earth at- mosphere and oceans, the answer of nature gave us a great lesson about its resilience and capacity for rapid recovery. The reduction of air pollutants and heavy met- als, the unusual transparency of waters in lagoonal are- as such as Venice, the occurrence of animals in the cities are among the evidence observed by everyone. These observations highlight the importance of long- term ecological observation and monitoring in order to discriminate how ecosystems change and adapt in re- sponse to climate variability and human activity (Fig. 4). It is urgent to reconfigure our view about nature (Fig. 4). We feel that new prospects on human adaptation should respect the independence of natural dynamics, thus developing nature-based solutions through investments in green growth (Mandle et al., 2019). The current crisis generated by the health state and the consequent restrictions offers the opportunity for novel insight and makes imperative to adopt sustainable options by reconciling the needs of citizens with the characteristics and vulnerabilities of the territory. Even if the peculiarities of the Italian territory are particularly prone in originating hazards and risks, several anthropo- genic factors have contributed in a decisive way to trig- ger or intensify their consequences. Recently, urbaniza- tion, settlement in hazardous areas, and unsustainable land use have put more people and wealth in danger. Thus, it is necessary to reconsider urban expansion and space planning. Investments in monitoring and surveil- lance systems are essential for tracking changes in the environment, particularly those factors that affect human Capotondi L. et al. 266 Using the past to envisage a better future: the approach of a Quaternary scientist Fig. 4 - Changing views about nature over the past 50 years reconfigured the human-nature relationship over time, resulting in four main frameworks - (1) Nature for itself; (2) Nature despite people; (3) Nature for people; (4) People and nature (Mace et al., 2014; Folke et al., 2021). Perception of these concepts needs a solid scientific basis to which all geoenvironmental disciplines are urged to contribute. We declined frameworks (1) to (4) in a fully Quaternary narrative, focusing on the role of Quaternary science in terms of perspectives and challenges. We look forward after the narrow perspective of a single human generation (see Steffen et al., 2018); we feel that new per- spectives to human adaptation should respect the independence of nature dynamics, thus developing nature-based solutions investing in green growth (Mandle et al., 2019) (4). Image step 1- Image courtesy of M. Lopez-Herrera via The Olduvai Paleoanthropology and Paleoe- cology Project and Enrique Baquedan from www.newhistorian.com/2016/03/13/scientists-reconstruct-habitat-early-human-ancestors/ Im- age step 2 - Disastro del Vajont, 1963. Fonte: Ansa from www.mountainblog.it/redazionale/la-tragedia-del-vajont-streaming-non- dimenticare/. Image step 3 - Volcanic risk map for Ischia Island active volcanic area from Lirer et al. (2010). Image step 4 - Green Growth Index 2020: Measuring performance in achieving SDG targets from gggi.org/report/green-growth-index-2020-measuring-performance-in- achieving-sdg-targets/ 267 health. Additionally, changes in frequency and intensity of climate anomalies in the recent past con- tributed to increase the occurrence rate and magnitude of natural disas- ters. This highlights the importance of analysing the historical rainfall series and generating spatially pre- cise climate simulations in order to develop adequate adaptation strate- gies and plans (Spano et al., 2020). The interaction between scientific research and technology helps in proposing suitable and sustainable interventions. For example, to con- trast the negative effects of sea level rise, river flooding, and land- slides, it is mandatory to reduce built areas, which cause soil loss and reduce water infiltration leading to soil erosion and floods. A darker scenario at a global scale emerges from the latest re- ports from the ERSL Global Moni- toring Laboratory of the NOAA, which monitors trends in atmos- pheric carbon dioxide. “Can we see a change in the CO2 record be- c a u s e o f C O V I D - 1 9 ? ” (gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/covid2.html) (browsed September, 2 nd , 2021). It seems that CO2 keeps increasing at the same rate recorded in previous years. Therefore, we are urged to make investments in renewable energy and in natural carbon long- term storage such as proforestation. Proforestation is the practice of purposefully growing an existing forest intact toward its full ecological potential and is a nature- based solution where existing forests are protected as intact ecosystems to foster continuous growth for maxi- mal carbon storage and ecological and structural com- plexity. This is a powerful climate solution which may be adapted at regional scale (Leverett et al., 2021; Mack et al. 2021) and may be managed regionally by the collab- oration of Quaternary palaeoecologists, forestry experts, and decision-makers, by estimating the biomass poten- tial of pristine forests and address the future forest suc- cession (Leverett et al., 2021). Proforestation is much more effective than planting new tree individuals (Zastrtow, 2019). It could reconcile nature-based biolog- ical carbon sequestration and an array of ecosystem services such as biodiversity enhancement, water and air quality, flood and erosion control, public health bene- fits, low impact recreation, and scenic beauty. But ac- tions like proforestation must become a global effort, much more aggressive than the impact that the pan- demic forced over the reduction to global CO2 emis- sions. The terminology recently used to distinguish eco- systems based on the degree of human interaction (“novel ecosystems,” “impacted ecosystems,” or “designed ecosystems”) suggests that societies would most efficiently invest time, effort, and financial re- sources if they focus on managing novel ecosystems for the ecosystem services that they can provide, rather than attempting to restore them to their previous states (Morse et al., 2014). Viewing “novel ecosystems” in this way and recognizing the trade-offs between their posi- tive and negative aspects will allow managers the prag- matic flexibility needed to make informed and sensible decisions concerning resource use and ecosystem maintenance (Morse et al., 2014). However, addressing these questions requires to plan adequate monitoring programs for the data collection and an accurate knowledge of the dynamics, structure, and longevity of past biodiversity to fully depict the influence of human impact and ecosystem response over time. In conclusion, we need scientists with different expertise such as naturalists, biologists, oceanog- raphers, limnologists, geologists, climatologists, histori- cal ecologists, archaeologists, soil scientists, possibly interacting with economists and local stakeholders en- dowed with specific skills to evaluate environmental sustainability and to propose effective and long-term solutions to address global environmental crises and human responses (Fig. 5). We need to face a deep change in perspective: from the post-event emergency response and assistance to risk forecast and prevention. The Quaternary record allows our knowledge to Capotondi L. et al. Fig. 5 - World cloud of the main conceptual terms used in the text. It highlights the fact that the global environmental crises lift the curtain on the intrinsic relationship between humans, cli- mate and nature. 268 https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/covid2.html stretch beyond the present and to collect insights into the Earth ecosystems future scenarios through lessons from the past. Although not all the solutions pertain to the expertise pertaining of Quaternary scientists, know- ing Quaternary helps understanding causes and dynam- ic processes to propose suitable and sustainable inter- ventions. AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS L.C. conceived of the presented idea and took the lead in writing the manuscript with input from all authors. C.R. focused on paragraph 2 and 8, M.P. and A.Z. on paragraph 3, MR. P. on paragraph 4; E.F., PP. and S.F. on paragraph 5, A.B. on paragraph 6, and I.M. on para- graph 7. G.M. provided critical feedback. L.C. C.R., P.P. and I.M. drew the figures. All authors commented on the manuscript. 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