american economic & social review; vol. 3, no. 1; 2018 issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 impact factor: 3.9 published by centre for research on islamic banking & finance and business, usa 12 women empowerment through muslim architecture which built by name of them in bangladesh during mediaeval period: a preliminary survey report sk. zohirul islam 1 1 research assistant, center for heritage studies (cenherst), dinajpur, bangladesh correspondence: sk. zohirul islam, research assistant, center for heritage studies (cenherst), dinajpur, bangladesh. email: zohirul.cenherst@gmail.com to cite this article: islam, s. z. (2018). women empowerment through muslim architecture which built by name of them in bangladesh during mediaeval period: a preliminary survey report. american economic & social review, 3(1), 12-17. retrieved from http://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr/article/view/195 received: november 1, 2018 accepted: november 3, 2018 online published: november 10, 2018 abstract there are many muslim architectures built by women patron which called bibi/begum in bangladesh during mediaeval period as binat bibi mosque architecture at dhaka. it mentioned women's contribution financially. this research paper is trying to show women empowerment through architecture which built by name in bangladesh during mediaeval era. it is a preliminary qualitative survey report and tries to understand how housewives inspired to makes/commissioned for constructing monuments. besides, what was the position of them in the royal court or their society as well as bibi/begum contribution in mediaeval muslim mosque architecture of bengal and by name monuments of tomb architecture formation? keywords: women, bibi/begum, architecture, bangladesh, muslim, mediaeval, contribution. 1. introduction the mosque architecture of bangladesh attract all scholar in view of architecturally and thus various article and books published about it in the subcontinent. but a few numbers noticed in the above-mentioned subjects. although it is a very interesting fact and also it has socio-economic discourse. bibi and begum are the honor addressed to married women in bangla language which word come from arabic-farsi language. for this reason, the aim of this feature is to introduce the women contribution and patronage of the monument of the mediaeval bengal, where we get that what was the position of them in contemporary society? yet some tomb architecture built by their father or husband after them died for beloved like taj mahal. furthermore, mosques and madrasas have been financed and constructed by richly person contribution or ruler patron and on the other hand, someone maintains their piety and social status. and in addition, some contributing happened by the ruler or social elite, such a monarch, a prince or queen, a religious or pious women leader, a women landowner etc. especially, the building of a mosque was mentioned to be a charitable act according to the quran (4:7-12,176), which one indicates of the religious sacrifice work. however, we have been found 17 (seventeen) number mosques architecture and 8 (eight) numbers tomb monuments, which were related to bibi and begums name i. e. women name. that indicates to women empowerment in muslim rule of bangladesh. www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 3, no. 1; 2018 13 2. name of the patron we have been found 18 women patron name in this survey as follows: binat bibi, bibi begani, rajbibi, bibi(unanimous), bibi marium, bibi marium saleha, ladli begum, jongi bibi, bibi meher, lattan, bibi chini, bibi champa, bibi marium, azim al-nisa begum, badr nisa begum, minia bibi, shaha banu begum, nusairi begum. actually, bibi is an arabic word and it means lady/a man's wife. bibi means miss in urdu and is frequently used as a respectful title for women in south asia when added to the given name. bibi like begum is used as a surname by some bangladeshi and pakistani women and baigum or beygum in turkish. 3. name of the mosque monuments list  bibi begani mosque, bagerhat district, 16 th century.  rajbibi mosque, gaur (present west bengal).  binat bibi mosque, narinda, dhaka district.  bibi mosque, sherpur, bogra district.  bibi marium mosque, narayanganj.  bibi marium saleha mosque, nilkhet, dhaka district.  ladli begum mosque, begum bazar, dhaka district.  jongi bibi mosque, dhaka district.  bibi meher mosque, dhaka district.  lattan mosque, gaur (present west bengal).  jahaniyan mosque, gaur (present west bengal).  bibi chini mosque, patuakhali district.  azim al-nisa begum mosque, murshidabad, pashimbangla.  badr nisa begum mosque, murshidabad, pashimbangla.  shaha banu begum, tallyganj (kolkata), pashimbangla.  nusairi begum mosque, murshidabad, pashimbangla.  chak mosque, murshidabad, pashimbangla. name of the tomb architecture list  bibi champa tomb, dhaka district.  bibi marium tomb, dhaka district.  paribibi tomb, dhaka district.  dara begum tomb, dhaka district.  begum bibi and guljer begum tomb, dhaka district.  minia bibi tomb, murshidabad, pashimbangla. 3.1 binat bibi mosque, dhaka (photo 1) binat bibi mosque (1456-57 a.d.) inscription to giving information about binat bibi, i. e., the donor, who was musammat bakht binat, daughter of marhammat. there is no another information about the ruling king or sultan. the mosque is situated in narinda under sutrapur polis station at dhaka of bangladesh. the inscription is giving the date of construction and provide information about the contribution or patron. sometimes patron was sultans and other patrons were ruling king, the official of the sultan, religious saint or scholar, women sponsorship etc. 3.2 bibi begni mosque, bagerhat there is no inscription. this mosque situated in the village of chunakhola about 200 m. west of a huge tank known as ghoradighi at bagerhat district of bangladesh. the building is attributed to bibi begni, locally believed to have been khan jahan’s wife (perween hasan, 2007:123). the name of the mosque recommends that it belonged to a bibi begni, whose identity is ambiguous. one local tradition imputes her as one of khan jahan's wives, while another makes her a concubine of khan jahan, who erected this building over her grave. 3.3 bibi chini mosque, near niamati, betagi, patuakhali, 16th century ad this mosque built by bibi chini, who is said to be the sister of niamatullah, the founder of a large settlement at niamati. it must be dated from the pre-mughal period. 3.4 dara begum tomb and bibi masjid (photo 4) tomb of dara begum (middle of the 17 th century a.d.) and dara begum's mosque building is situated near lalmatia women's college of mohammadpur, upazila mohammadpur (thana), dhaka district. 3.5 begum bibi and gulzar bibi tombs of begum bibi and gulzar bibi (17 th century a.d.) is situated in dhaka of bangladesh. www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 3, no. 1; 2018 14 3.6 tomb of pari bibi, 1684 a.d. (photo 3) the most attractive as well as well-preserved architectural monuments in the lalbagh fort is undoubtedly the tomb of bibi pari, who was the daughter of shaista khan and wife of prince muhammad azam. bibi pari suddenly died in 1684 a.d. 3.7 bibi masjid, 1628 a.d. the bibi masjid, which was built according to an inscription by sayyid ali mutawalli during the reign of sha jahan in the year 1628 a.d., is a small and unpretentious building and situated in sherpur of bogra district. towards the south of the khodkartola masjid lies bibi masjid. it likewise conforms to the single-domed type of mosque. it is said that the daughter of raja balaram fell in love with ghazi shah madar but as the raja refused to give her daughter in marriage to the ghazi, she remained unmarried and came to be known as bibi. shah madar also remained bachelor. 3.8 bibi meher mosque, 1814 a.d., narinda, dhaka according to an inscription hung up over the central archway. it was built by bibi meher, who was presumably a relation of ghulam muhammad in a.h. 1230/1814 a.d. it is a single domed square mosque. a little to the south east of ghulam muhammad’s gateway in narinda is a beautiful structure of considerable architectural posturing. 3.9 jahaniyan mosque the jahaniyan mosque in gaur is a six domed structure construction just before sher shahs conquest of bengal. it was built during the reign of ghiyatuddin al-din mohammad shah by bibi malti. (elizabeth schotter merklinjar, 2005: 66). 3.10 muni begum muni begum is the patron of the chawk mosque (1181 ah / 1767 ad). it is seven bayed large mosque, situated in the center of murshidabad at west bengal. it is identified in the inscription as muni begum was the highly influenced wife of nawab mir jaffar. it was constructed in 1767 a.d. under the supervision of sheikh khalil allah. (michell, 1984:87). 3.11 lattan mosque on the name lattan, alexander cunninghum observed that the name of this mosque is universally believed to be derived from nattu, a famous dancing girl of the king, after whom it was called the nation masjid or as it is more generally pronounced, the lattan masjid. abid ali also records that there is a local tradition that the mosque was built by a dancing girl who, being a favorite of some king. acquired much wealth all the money she has as meritorious work. she concealed her name and put the kings’ name in the inscription tablet, the originally meaning of the word is a tumbler pigeon. (ahmed hasan dani, 1961:120-121). 3.12 rajbibi mosque (15th century ad) the rajbibi mosque is a small elegant monument in gaur. someone, which is called khaoria dighi. actually the local people is called it rajibibi mosque. literally, rajbibi means royal (raj) lady (bibi). presumably it was built by a prominent member of the harem of the bengali sultans. though there is no inscription has been assigned to it. 3.13 bibi mariyam masjid, narayanganj district (photo 2) bibi maryam masjid translated in english as lady mary masjid, is a masjid situated in the killarpur area of narayanganj district in bangladesh which was built under the period of mughal intervention in around 1680 a.d. she was actually wife of eisha khan. besides, there have been found some monuments which are built during the nawabs basically in murshidabad area as follows: azim al-nisa begum, badr nisa begum, minia bibi tomb, shaha banu begum, tallyganj (kolkata), nusairi begum, chak mosque. murshidabad was founded in 1704 before which dacca (now dhaka) was the capital of the subah or province of bengal (present bangladesh and paschim bangla), including bihar and orissa. by 1757 after the eclipse of nawab siraj-ud-daula, murshidabad's political importance rapidly diminished and by 1790 all administrative infrastructure of the state was transferred by the british to their capital city calcutta. however, culturally and especially for its arts and crafts of murshidabad and its environs continued to flourish well into the 19th century. 4. discussion power always has been in the laying with dominators and will be in their hand, may or may not. when language is changing, in the same way, the hand of the dictators will change in society. thus women society do flourish of her work and activities up to far away and her speed is coming into the act of social welfare through to cultural religious way. for this reason, we found the vast contribution of women for making or edifice of the mediaeval muslim mosque architecture of bangladesh. that was the progressivization of women in bangladesh (past bengal) during www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 3, no. 1; 2018 15 15th to 18th century there has other politicalize women figure, as for example mughal princess nurjahan and sultana razia etc. we know that there mostly inscription has been written a hadith, which is "whoever builds a mosque in the world, allah will build forty palaces (for him) in the paradise." for this reason, they (women) had been inspired those verses to build mosque and women's endowment contributed to building mosques like the ruler, elite class people, and merchants. doubtless, all are high ranking lady belonging to the royal family. though one of them is a royal concubine of mir jaffar of bengal nawab and another one dancer or unknown women etc. beside these another mosque name are jahaniyan mosque in gaur (1535 a.d) and lattan mosque (late fifteenth and early sixteenth century) in gaur, which attire constructed by bibi malti and noble women dancer (lattan /nati). 5. conclusion the muslim architecture of bangladesh is not only magnificent but also it gave traditional and richly sophisticated forms of islamic art, architecture, and culture. with women empowerment, where we followed as practiced of the royal ranking lady and highly aristocratic women patronize for the build to the mosque. socially, the most and important result of the women patron was the developed women rights through to islamic sharia law. it is true that in the above mentioned architectural elements had settled in bangladesh and west bengal during mediaeval period as feminism outlook. moreover, we need to further study this matter including west bengal content also. references abid ali khan (1931), muhammad. memoirs of gaur and pandua. edited and revised by h. £. stapleton. calcutta, bengal secretariat book depot. ahmed, nizamuddin (1980), bagerhat monuments. dacca, department of archaeology and museums. ahmed, shamsud-din (1960), inscriptions of bengal, vol. iv. rajshahi, varendra research museum. aulad hasan (1904), s. notes on the antiquities of dacca, calcutta, m. m. baysak. banerjee, b. n. (1942), begums of bengal. calcutta, s. k. mitra. dani, a. hasan. (1961), muslim architecture in bengal, dacca, asiatic society of pakistan. hasan, s. m. (1979), mosque architecture of pre-mughal bengal. 2nd ed. dacca, university press ltd. ——. (1980), muslim monuments of bangladesh. 2nd ed. dacca, islamic foundation of bangladesh. kljraishi, m. h. (1931), list of ancient monuments protected under act vll of 1904 in the province of bihar and orissa. archaeological survey of india, new imperial series, vol. li. calcutta, government of india, central publication branch. (1896), list of ancient monuments in bengal. revised and corrected up to 31st august 1895. prepared by the government of bengal, the public works department. calcutta, bengal secretariat press. joseph david. (1888), archaeological survey of bengal: report for 1888. calcutta, catholic orphan press. michell, george (ed.). (1978), architecture of the islamic world: its history and social meaning. london, thames & hudson. michell, george (ed.). (1984), islamic heritage of bengal, unesco. o'malley, l. s. s. (1914), murshidabad. vol. 32 of bengal district gazetteers. calcutta, bengal secretariat book depot. ravenshaw, john henry, (1878), gaur: its ruins and inscriptions. london, kegan paul. ray, r. n. bengal nawabs. calcutta, victoria memorial, n.d. taifoor, syed muhammad. (1956), glimpses of old dacca. 2nd ed. dacca, s. m. pervez. elizabeth schotter merklinjar, (2005), sultanate architecture of pre -mughal india, munsihram, delhi. perween hasan, (2007), sultans and mosques: the early muslim architecture of bangladesh, new york. www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 3, no. 1; 2018 16 photo 1: binat bibi mosque. photo 2 : bibi marium tomb (courtesy ferdous). www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 3, no. 1; 2018 17 photo 3 : tomb of pari bibi, dhaka (courtesy, taken from internet). photo 4 : bibi mashjid, mohammadpur. copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. this is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) american economic & social review; vol. 3, no. 1; 2018 issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 impact factor: 3.9 published by centre for research on islamic banking & finance and business, usa 18 testing the validity of the solow growth model: empirical evidence from cross-country panel data chigozie nelson nkalu 1 , richardson kojo edeme 1 & queen o. chukwuma 1 1 department of economics, university of nigeria, nsukka enugu state, nigeria correspondence: chigozie nelson nkalu, department of economics, university of nigeria, nsukka enugu state, nigeria. email: nkaluconnection@gmail.com, phone: +2348066884155 to cite this article: nkalu, c. n., edeme, r. k., & chukwuma, q. o. (2018). testing the validity of the solow growth model: empirical evidence from cross-country panel data. american economic & social review, 3(1), 18-22. retrieved from http://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr/article/view/197 received: november 2, 2018 accepted: november 8, 2018 online published: november 11, 2018 abstract this study seeks to test for the validity of the solow growth model using cross-country panel data. panel ols analysis was adopted following an extensive review of recent and related literature with output-side of the real gdp as the dependent variable with other variables like population, capital stock and employment as the independent. however, population and capital stock are positively impacting the output with statistically significant value, while employment is not an important variable in the model even though it exhibits a negative and statistically significant effect to the output. in conclusion, the estimation result conforms the postulations of the basic solow and augmented solow growth model thereby validating the solow model across-countries. keywords: solow model, cross-country, panel ols, growth theories, output-side of rgdp. jel: a10, a20, c01, c15, c87 1. introduction one of the greatest challenges in economic growth and development policy is the persistent and significant differences and ranges of standards of living across countries. different growth theories have evolved over the years starting from classical theories of growth to endogenous and neoclassical growth theories. all the growth theories strive to account for the differences in growth experiences across countries, and why the growth changes over time. however, growth theory analyzes the relationship between the macro-dynamics and technological change and over the years, different growth models have been developed to account for and sustain the emergence and diffusion of technical change effects and the acceleration of economic growth, employment dynamics, capital stock among others (llerena & lorentz, 2004). world bank (1993) pointed out that endogenous growth models laid emphasis on international trade posits posit that due to diffusion of knowledge already existing in developed countries, high productivity growth is feasible in initially developing economies. however, the relatively underdeveloped resources in developing countries offer an opportunity to be exploited. in the newly industrialized asian countries, faster capital growth otherwise known as accelerated growth could be accounted for by closing the gap between best and actual practice. in basic solow model, there has been a long run constant growth rate with stable equilibrium. however, the assumption of neoclassical analytical representation of production function comprises inada conditions, diminution marginal return to all input, and constant returns to scale and other levels of substitution among them. in the www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 3, no. 1; 2018 19 inception of the solow model, the technological growth and population growth rate were simply exogenous, taken for example a constant savings rate with the propensity that every economy always trades in the path of iso-savings curve (milton, ricardo, & eliezer, 2005). despite the novelty of solow growth model, it has some shortcomings, one of the significant limitations of the model is its premise or assumption of a closed economy with the convergence assertion or hypothesis that presupposes a group of heterogeneous countries with no type of interrelationship. even though it has been argued that there is no model with no untrue assumption, but this can be verifiable if the end result of such model can validate the basic and working assumption. in addition to the proposition of the solow growth model with a closed economy assumption, barro, mankiw and sala-martin (1995) made some significant attempt in construction an open economy growth model. another notable shortcoming of the solow growth model implicitly divergence of income share from capital from the output of the estimated model and national account information. that is, the unsynchronized share of income from capital and the national accounting information, however, this was the brain behind the attempt by lucas (1988) to eliminate this problem by incorporating both physical and human (like education) resources into the concept of capital. thirdly on the limitations of solow growth model lies the infinitesimal low estimated convergence rate, though the convergence rate has been impacted by the modification of the solow growth model by an open economy version of the model such as ramsy-cass-koopmans model with relatively augmented convergence rate. the fourth and final shortcomings of the solow growth model is that technological progress is the ultimate factor in determining the level of growth equilibrium of relevant variables in the model (milton, ricardo, & eliezer, 2005). nevertheless, given the shortcomings of the solow growth model, the model laid a strong foundation of growth theories in the economic literature with emphasis on the behavior of income growth across countries. therefore, this study utilizes data from cross-country panel to study to verify the validity the solow growth theories across countries as well as ascertain the magnitudes of population, employment and capital stock of growth. on that note, this study is organized as follows. section 1 presents the introductory of dynamics of economic theories; section 2 presents a brief empirical literature review and underlying analytical underpinning of the current study. section 3 discusses the theoretical framework with a model specification, and section 4 presents the result and discussions with a conclusion. 2. brief review of related literature many researchers have attempted to test for the validity of the solow neoclassical growth model in recent times, and notable among them is work of mankiw, romer, and weil (1992). this study pointed out that with the introduction of the human capital variable in the model, the data will be well fitted with lend credence to the divergence in income disparities across countries. this study utilized new econometric methodology to provide new evidence on the behavior of income disparities across countries using time series data. just as romer and weil (1992), hoeffler (2002) used cross-country panel with ols and fixed effect model to test for the validity of solow growth model. the study also employed instrumental variables (iv), system and first-differenced gmm technique, the study revealed that the augmented solow model is better explained by system gmm estimator, and thus concluded that poor growth performance of sub-saharan africa is completely accounted for by augmented solow model. durlauf, kourtellos and minkin (2001) in testing for the validity of solow growth model using a general growth function or equation highlighted that the assumption of identical cobb-douglas production technology is unsatisfactory when analyzing cross-country. related to this findings is duffy and papageorgiou (2000) who found alternative production function more satisfactory than the standard cobb-douglas production. however, durlauf et al. (2001) also noted that strong heterogeneity is more evidenced in poorer countries in comparison with other richer countries with high tendencies of omitted variables in the nonlinear growth process. the result also revealed that higher income per capita countries is associated or linked with the highest coefficient which is evidenced in the unstable physical capital. the estimation result equally showed low values in growth rate in poor countries as a result of some omitted variables that was not captured by solow model specification. murthy and chien (1997) in the empirics of economic growth for oecd countries extended the solow model by reexamining the augmented solow model and adding a better measure of human capital, physical capital, and advancement in technological variables. this study showed that there is a high rate of convergence in oecd countries when optimal policies in human capital development and trade are enacted with a concomitant increase in savings. similar to this study is lee and smith (1997) who employed panel data econometric analysis in investigating the empirical study of stochastic solow model with emphasis on growth and convergence of multiple economies. however, the study showed that technical issues that are inherent in cross-sectional approach can be solved by panel analysis. also evidenced in the study is the conclusion of heterogeneous convergence speed and inconsistent parameter in growth effects when a dynamic panel is utilized. www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 3, no. 1; 2018 20 nevertheless, easterly & levine (2001) in analyzing the stylized facts of growth models using growth accounting method found a high variation in the residuals of solow model with relevance of efficiencies in the government policy, instrument framework vis-à-vis other structural and social infrastructures as prerequisites for cross-country accumulation of capital variation. moreover, ding and knight (2009) studied the validity of the augmented solow model in relation to economic growth in china using cross-country panel data of 146 countries. the estimation result from the gmm adopted showed that the augmented solow growth model with structural change and human capital development impact significantly on economic growth. laying more emphasis on the chinese economy, the study equally revealed that rapid growth rate in china is attributable to huge investment in the physical capital with a concomitant change in employment and structural output and policy of low population growth. sumer (2012) tested for the joint validity of economic growth models introduced by solow, harrod-domar, barro and romer using seemingly unrelated regression (sur) model in turkey with annual data ranging from 1980 to 2010. this study revealed that public expenditure is one of the major sources of economic growth in turkey. the study validated the barro model in turkish economy by concluding that government intervention, public demand, and efficient economic structures stimulate economic growth towards steady-state. 3. methodology solow (1956) theoretically nested the basic growth framework of which recent studies on growth models are built upon. also, romer, mankiw, and weil (1992) augmented the basic solow growth model by introducing human capital into the model. however, highlights of the basic and augmented solow models are presented below. the basic solow growth model employed the neoclassical production function which state that per capita income growth is caused by the physical stock of capital (k), the stock of labour (l), and technological change (a) as represented in equation 1.1 below.with an exogenous growth rate of labour n as represented in equation 1.1 and 1.2 respectively. where: y is output, k is capital, l is labour and a is knowledge or effective labour. note that the growth rate of labour n is exogenous as in equation 1.2 below: n l l   …………………………………………………………………..…………………………..1.2 also, the amount of national income save which equals investment is known as physical capital stock as shown in equation 1.3 below:  k (t) = s(t) –  k(t) …………………………………………………………..………………….1.3 where:  k (t) is the growth rate of capital stock, s(t) is the savings, k(t) is the actual capital stock, and α is the capital depreciation rate. however, adding technological shift into production function gives equation 1.4 which shows further growth in per capita income can be stimulated in an economy that has reached steady-state through incorporating technological progress. )()()()( 1 tatltkty   ……………….………………………………………………1.4 where: o<α<1, a(t) captures technical shift and it is assumed to be exogenous at the growth rate of g. therefore, the central logarithmic equation of the basic solow model is given in equation 1.5 as follows: gtoalgnlsltyl nnnn      )()( 11 )(      …………….………………..1.5 the above equation 1.5 states that the depreciation rate (ɑ), the labour exogenous growth rate (g), the initial state of technology a(o) and the savings rate (s) determine the growth rate of per capita income. romer, mankiw and weil (1992) in their augmented solow growth model modified the equation 1.5 by including the human capital into the aggregate production function as shown in equation 1.6 below: )()()()( 1 tahtltkty b  …………………………………………………………….1.6 while the physical capital per capita growth is shown as: )()()()( tkrgntystk k  …………………………………………………………..1.7 where: sk = is the income share of physical capital production and r is the rental rate of capital. therefore, the logarithmic transformation of the function of augmented solow growth model is given in equation 1.8 below: www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 3, no. 1; 2018 21 )( 1 rgnlsl nkn      ………………………………………………………………1.8 given the above theoretical framework based on basic and augmented solow growth model, this study shall employ the following modified model to test for the validity of the solow model using cross-country panel data: itititititn ckemppoprgdpol   3210 ……………...………………….1.9 where: rgdpo is the output-side of the real gdp, pop is the population, emp is the employment, and ck is capital accumulation. also, ln is the natural logarithm and  is the stochastic error term, while the subscript it represents the time series panel. the study will employ panel ols random effect to test for the validity of the solow growth model using cross-country annual panel data. 4. the result, discussion, and conclusion this section presents the result, analyze and discuss the output from the estimation. before the result is presented, it is imperative here to present the summary statistics of variables of interest as specified in the empirical model (equation 1.9) above. table 1.the summary statistics of variable of interest variable mean std. dev. min max observations rgdpo overall 242850.9 902614.9 122.2258 1.32e+07 n = 6535 between 902614.9 122.2258 1.32e+07 n = 6535 within 0 242850.9 242850.9 t = 1 pop overall 32.16035 118.4157 .040731 1324.353 n = 6535 between 118.4157 .040731 1324.353 n = 6535 within 0 32.16035 32.16035 t = 1 emp overall 14.8108 59.87839 .023815 784.4269 n = 6040 between 59.96964 .023815 784.4269 n = 6021 within .0792873 13.32098 16.25312 t = 1.00316 ck overall 696684.4 2744717 60.60447 4.53e+07 n = 6535 between 2744717 60.60447 4.53e+07 n = 6535 within 0 696684.4 696684.4 t = 1 source: computed by the author using stata 13.0 econometric software the table 1. above is self-explanatory showing the overall variables of interest with the corresponding mean, standard deviation, minimum, maximum and observation within and within values. table 2. the estimation output of the panel regression rgdpo coef. std. err. t p>t [95% conf. interval] pop 1266.085 83.22248 15.21 0.000 1102.94 1429.231 emp -847.8773 173.9049 -4.88 0.000 -1188.793 -506.9613 ck .3058931 .000823 371.66 0.000 .3042796 .3075065 _cons 688.5399 2164.773 0.32 0.750 -3555.191 4932.271 r-squared = 0.97 adjusted r-squared = 0.97 prob>f = 0.000 source: computed by the author using stata 13.0 econometric software from the estimated output in table 2, the result shows that all statistics/variables conform to the expectations of the solow growth model. the population growth and capital stock are all positively impacting on the output. the employment variable is not positive and negatively affecting the output of the estimation though it is not an important variable in the model as pointed out in the theoretical framework of the solow growth model. also, the values of r-squared and adjusted r-squared reveal relatively best fit, but not necessary while dealing with panel analysis. consequently, despite the fact that all other variables conform to the solow theoretical apriori expectation, with employment influencing the growth negatively, the result still validates the postulations of the solow growth model. www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 3, no. 1; 2018 22 references barro, r. j., mankiw, g. n. and sala-i-martin, x. (1995). capital mobility in neoclassical models of growth, american economic review, 85, 103 – 15. ding, s. and knight, j. (2009). can the augmented solow model explain china’s remarkable economic growth? a cross-country panel data analysis. journal of comparative economics, 37, 432-452. duffy, j. and papageorgiou, c. (2000). a cross-country empirical investigation of the aggregate production function specification. journal of economic growth, 5, 87-120. durlauf, s. n., kourtellos, a. and minkin, a. (2001). the local solow growth model. european economic review, 45, 928 – 940. easterly, w. and levine, r. (2001). it is not factor accumulation stylized facts and growth models. working papers central bank of chile. hoeffler, a. (2002). the augmented solow model and the african growth debate. oxford bulletin of economics and statistics, 64, 135 – 158. llerena, p., and lorentz, a. (2004). alternative theories of economic growth and co-evaluation of macrodynamics and technological change: a survey. laboratory economics and management (lem), working paper series. lucas, r. (1988). on the mechanics of economic development, journal of monetary economics, 22, 3–42. mankiw, n. g., romer, d., and weil, d. n. (1992). a contribution to the empirics of economic growth, quarterly journal of economics, 58, 407–437. milton, b. f., ricardo, g. s., and eliezer, m. d. (2005). the empirics of the solow growth model: longterm evidence. journal of applied economics, vol. 8(1), 31-51 murthy, v. n. and chien, i. (1997). the empirics of economic growth for oecd countries: some new findings. economics letters, 55, 425 – 429. sumer, k. k. (2012). testing the validity of economic growth theories with seemingly unrelated regression models: application to turkey in 1980-2010. applied econometrics and international development, 12(1), 63 – 72. copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. this is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) american economic & social review; vol. 3, no. 1; 2018 issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 impact factor: 3.9 published by centre for research on islamic banking & finance and business, usa 1 involvement of women in handloom segment: an empirical study with reference to krishna district, andhra pradesh d.srinivasa rao 1 , n.sreedhar 2 & b. ravi kumar 3 1 research scholar dept. of economics, rayalaseema university, kurnool,india. 2 dept. of economics, rayalaseema university, kurnool, ap. india 3 dept. of mba, amrita sai institute of science and technology,india. correspondence: b. ravi kumar, dept. of mba, amrita sai institute of science and technology,india. to cite this article: rao, d., sreedhar, n., & kumar, b. r. (2018). involvement of women in handloom segment: an empirical study with reference to krishna district, andhra pradesh. american economic & social review, 3(1), 1-11. retrieved from http://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr/article/view/137 received: june 19, 2018 accepted: june 30, 2018 online published: august 25, 2018 abstract the handloom is a traditional craft work of india and it provides employment opportunities to lakhs of people in the rural and urban areas of our country. in the world women constitutes approximately 50% of the total population but society is still male dominated one. in india women contributed substantially to the economic growth of the country.the relationship between gender and the economy has considerable importance in indian society. in general attitude of the people women are second grade citizens and they are makers of food, pickles, papads, masalas etc,. but their role is very important in every economic activity, either it is household work or cultivation or industry or service sector etc,. like the other sectors the role of women weavers is very much important in handloom sector. handloom sector is unique in india. the handloom weaving is household profession, followed by generations. in these households, women play an important role. handloom sector is the only manufacturing sector in which women producing for women. keywords: women weavers, participation of work, handloom sector, krishna district, andhra pradesh introduction handloom sector in india is growing and has been undergoing many changes within its structure that affect its main features. handloom weaving plays an important role in the growth process of the state as well as the country. this sector has been considered prominent because of the traditional artisan craft skills of the weavers which meet the local needs and demands.irrespective of gender the handloom sector has self sustaining mechanism.there is a sufficient flexibility for all types of communities to take up handloom production as a profession. in modern times the handloom sector has different strengths. it is simple, and is associated with appropriate technology. women as a whole in the world wide suffer from secondary status .in india also they are in lower most hierarchy.the discrimination of women is related to her socio-economic status but differs from region to region ,in rural and urban areas. www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 3, no. 1; 2018 2 the handloom sector is one of the largest unorganized economic activities after agriculture and constitutes an integral part of the rural and semi rural livelihood. handloom weaving constitutes one of the richest and most vibrant aspects of the indian cultural heritage. the sector has an advantage of being less capital intensive, minimal use of power, eco-friendly, and flexibility of small production, openness to innovations and adaptability to market requirements. it is a natural productive asset and tradition at cottage level, which has sustained and grown by transfer of skill from one generation to other. handloom weaving is largely decentralized and the weavers are mainly from the vulnerable and weaker sections of the society, who weave for their household needs and also contribute to the production in the textile sector. the weavers of this industry are keeping alive the traditional craft of different states. the level of artistry and intricacy achieved in the handloom fabrics is unparalleled and certain weaves/designs are still beyond the scope of modern machines. handloom sector can meet every need ranging from the exquisite fabrics, which takes months to weave, to popular items of mass production for daily use. as per 3rd handlooms census, carried out in 2009-10, more than 43 lakh people are engaged in weaving and allied activities which were 65.5 lakh as per 2nd handloom census conducted during 1995-96. out of the 38.47 lakh adult weavers and allied workers in the country, 77% are women and 23% male weavers, 10% of the weavers are from scheduled castes (scs), 18% of the weavers are from scheduled tribes (sts), 45% are from other backward classes (obcs) and 27% are from other castes. objectives of the study the main purpose of the study is to examine the work participation of women handloom weavers in krishna district. the objectives of the study are 1) to study the work participation of the women in handloom sector in krishna district. 2) to study the socio-economic conditions of women handloom weavers in krishna district. 3) to estimate the improvement in the socio-economic status of women handloom weavers by using government schemes. 4) to study the problems and prospects of handloom industry in krishna district. period of the study the study mainly examines the work participation of women weavers in handloom sector in krishna district from 2006 to 2016 i.e. 10 years period. collection of data the study is based on primary data and secondary data. we have collected primary data from 70 respondents by using a structured questionnaire and through personal interview method. the secondary data was collected from books, periodic journals, articles related to the present research. primary data the main source of the data is from the handloom weavers who are working under societies or independent weavers. for primary data collection 70 women weavers were selected. a structured questionnaire is used for the survey which contain simple, multiple choice questions. for primary data collection the observation method, personal interview method and group discussion method are used. secondary data secondary data has been collected from published and unpublished reports by the government, departments and societies of the handloom sector and also from books, periodic journals and various websites related to present research study and handloom census of ministry of textiles ,government of india. sampling techniques simple random sampling was used in present research. women handloom weavers is the sample and krishna district is the population. area of the study this study was limited to women handloom weavers of seven mandals in krishna district. the weavers spread throughout the district. majority of weavers reside in guduru, pedana ,ghantasala , bandar ,challapalli ,movva and gannavaram mandals. sample size .there are 58 primary handloom weavers co-operative societies existed in krishna district with membership of 7,047 weaver artisans and 4,865 weavers are outside the co-operative fold. that is 11,912 handloom weavers in krishna district. among them 7,085 weavers are women weavers. a sample of 70 weavers are randomly selected from krishna district, andhra pradesh. analysis and interpretation of data the data is collected from 70 sample respondents. a structured questionnaire was given to the respondents to collect primary data. the data is analyzed by using the tables on the basis of age, sex, marital status, literacy, size of the family, working hours , income per month and health ground. www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 3, no. 1; 2018 3 table – 1 age wise classification of women weavers sl. no age group no. of respondents percentage 1 up to 20 yrs 08 11.43 2 20 – 40 yrs 35 50.00 3 40 – 60 yrs 21 30.00 4 above 60 years 06 08.57 total 70 100 source: primary data according to the above table majority of women weaver respondents (50.0%) belong to the age group between 20 and 40 years. only 6 members are above the age of 60 years with 8.57% table – 2 type of work sl. no nature of work no. of respondents percentage 1 weaving 14 20.00 2 bobbin winding 18 25.71 3 warping 17 24.29 4 dyeing 16 22.86 5 others 05 07.14 total 70 100 source: primary data according to the data the participation of women weaver respondents is same in all work areas but less in weaving area. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 weaving bobbin winding wrapping dyeing others no. of respondents % column1 www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 3, no. 1; 2018 4 table – 3 community wise classification of women weavers sl. no community no. of respondents percentage 1 bc 55 78.57 2 sc 07 10 3 st 00 00 4 others 08 11.43 total 70 100 source: primary data 55 7 0 8 community distribution backward caste schedule caste scheduled tribe others according to the data 55 weaver respondents out of 70 belong to backward community with 78.57%, 11.43% are belong to other communities,10% respondents belong to scheduled caste and none of the respondents are belong to scheduled tribe. table – 4 religion wise classification of women weavers sl. no religion no. of respondents percentage 1 hindu 57 81.43 2 muslim 07 10.0 3 christian 06 8.57 4 others 00 00 total 70 100 source: primary data 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 hindu muslim christian others no. of respondents % column1 www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 3, no. 1; 2018 5 according to the study majority of the women respondents (81.43%) belong to hindu religion, 10% respondents belong to muslim and the rest belong to christian religion. table –5 classifications of women weavers on the basis of marital status sl. no marital status no. of respondents percentage 1 married 61 87.14 2 un married 01 01.43 3 widow 07 10.0 4 divorcee 01 01.43 total 70 100 source: primary data 61 1 7 1 marital status married un married widowed divorced according to the data majority of the women respondents 61 out of 70 (87.14%) are married and 10% are widowed. unmarried and divorced are 1% of total respondents. table – 6 classification of women weavers on literacy level sl. no literacy level no. of respondents percentage 1 illiterates 21 30.00 2 1 – 5 class 18 25.71 3 6 – 10 class 24 34.29 4 10 + 2 class 07 10.00 5 graduation 00 00 total 70 100 source: primary data 0 10 20 30 40 no. of respondents % column1 according to the data 30% of women respondents are illiterates. 25.71% completed their primary education and 34.29% completed secondary education. only 10% are studied up to inter level and none of them are at graduation level. www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 3, no. 1; 2018 6 table – 7 type of family sl. no type of family no. of respondents percentage 1 nuclear 45 64.29 2 joint 25 35.71 total 70 100 source: primary data according to the data majority of the respondents (64.29%) are under nuclear families and 35.71% are under joint families. 45 25 0 0 type of family nuclear family joint family table – 8 size of family sl. no size of family no. of respondents percentage 1 small (up to 3) 15 21.43 2 medium(4 – 6) 35 50.00 3 large(above 6) 20 28.57 total 70 100 source: primary data according to the data 50% of the women weaver respondents have medium size of family which consists of 4 to 6 members. very less (21.43%) number of respondents consisting up to 3 members which is very small family. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 upto 3 medium(4-6) large(above 6) no. of respondents % column1 table-9.residential status sl.no house no. of respondents percentage 1 own 60 85.71 2 rent 10 14.29 total 70 100 source: primary data www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 3, no. 1; 2018 7 according to the data majority of the respondents (85.71%) have own houses and 14.29% of the respondents are living in rented houses. 60 10 0 0 residential status own rent table-10. type of house sl.no type of house no. of respondents percentage 1 thatched 39 55.71 2 tiled 14 20.0 3 r.c.c 07 10.00 4 sheds 10 14.29 total 70 100 source: primary data according to the data majority of the respondents (55.71%) are dwelling in thatched houses. a few respondents (10.0%) are dwelling in r.c.c houses. 0 20 40 60 thavhed tiled r.c.c sheds no. of respondents % column1 table-11.selection of job sl. no preference no. of respondents percentage 1 inheritance 52 74.29 2 job opportunities 10 14.28 3 interest 08 11.43 total 70 100 source: primary data according to the data majority of the women weaver respondents (74.29%) are choosing the occupation by inheritance. only 11.43% of the respondents prefer the occupation by their interest. www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 3, no. 1; 2018 8 52 10 8 0 selection of job inheritance job opportunities interest table-12.category of weavers sl. no category no. of respondents percentage 1 independent weavers 04 5.71 2 working under master weaver 28 40.0 3 working under co-operative weavers 38 54.29 total 70 100 source: primary data according to the data majority of the respondents (54.29%) are working under co-operative societies. 40% of the respondents are working under master weavers. only 5.71% of the respondents are independent weavers. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 independent weaver working under master weaver working under co-operative weavers no. of respondents % column1 table-13. working hours per day sl. no working hours no. of respondents percentage 1 up to 8 hrs 63 90.00 2 8 – 12 hrs 07 10.00 3 above 12 hrs 00 00 total 70 100 source: primary data according to the data majority of the respondents (90%) are working up to 8 hours per day and only 10% of the weavers are working 8-12 hours per day. www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 3, no. 1; 2018 9 63 7 0 0 working hours per day up to 8 hours 8-12 hours above 12 hours table-14. wage levels sl. no average income per day no. of respondents percentage 1 rs. 100 – 200 40 57.14 2 rs. 201 -300 26 37.15 3 above rs. 300 04 05.71 total 70 100 source: primary data according to the data majority of the respondents (57.14%) are earning in between rs. 100 to 200 per day. only 5.71% of the respondents income is rs.300 above. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 rs. 100-200 rs.201-300 above rs.300 no. of respondents % column1 table – 15 health problems sl.no health problems no. of respondents percentage 1 eye sight / cataract 23 32.86 2 back pain 30 42.86 3 knee pain / joint pain 13 18.57 4 problem of lungs 04 05.71 total 70 100 source: primary data according to the data majority of the respondents (42.86%) are suffering form backpain followed by 32.86% respondents suffering from eye sight /cataract. 18.57% of the respondents are suffering from joint pains and knee pains and only 5.71% of the respondents suffering from the problem of lungs. www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 3, no. 1; 2018 10 23 30 13 4 health problems eye sight/cataract back pain knee pain/joint pain problem of lungs findings according to the information collected from the respondents there are some major findings. they are: 1.majority of women weaver respondents (50.0%) belong to the age group between 20 and 40 years 2. the participation of women weaver respondents is same in all work areas but less in weaving area. 3. 55 weaver respondents out of 70 belong to backward community with 78.57%, 4. majority of the women respondents (81.43%) belong to hindu religion 5. majority of the women respondents 61 out of 70 (87.14%) are married 6 it is observed that 30% of women respondents are illiterates. 7. majority of the respondents (64.29%) are under nuclear families and 35.71% are under joint families. 8. 50% of the women weaver respondents have medium size of family which consists of 4 to 6 members. 9. majority of the respondents (85.71%) have own houses and 14.29% of the respondents are living in rented houses. 10. majority of the respondents (55.71%) are dwelling in thatched houses. a few respondents (10.0%) are dwelling in r.c.c houses. 11. majority of the women weaver respondents (74.29%) are choosing the occupation by inheritance 12. majority of the respondents (54.29%) are working under co-operative societies.. only 5.71% of the respondents are independent weavers. 13. majority of the respondents (90%) are working up to 8 hours per day and only 10% of the weavers are working 8-12 hours per day. 14. majority of the respondents (57.14%) are earning in between rs. 100 to 200 per day. only 5.71% of the respondents income is rs.300 above. 15. majority of the respondents (42.86%) are suffering form backpain followed by 32.86% respondents suffering from eye sight /cataract. 18.57% of the respondents are suffering from joint pains and knee pains and only 5.71% of the respondents suffering from the problem of lungs. summary & conclusion the central and state government should take some steps at different levels. to overcome the problems of women weavers, easy credit and cheep credit should be provided to women weavers through the banks, other financial institutions and government. handloom weaving plays an active role in the growth process of the state as well as the nation. this sector has been considered prominent because of the traditional artisan craft skills of the weavers which meet the local needs and demands. handloom sector has different strengths in the modern economy. it is simple, and is associated with appropriate technology. the world, which is seeking for clean air and water, handlooms are well suited because they are eco-friendly in nature. handloom sector has self sustaining mechanism, training for irrespective of gender. the inheritance of skills and capacities is beyond the realm and reach of any modern training and educational institution. there is a sufficient flexibility for all types of communities to take up handloom weaving as a profession. references srinivasachari p.(1965),the handloom industry, khadi and village industries commission publication, pp.1-12. the handloom and women, khadi gramodyog, vol.7,no.2,pp.76-78. hussain m.i., (1975), parikh, indira,(1991), “women weavers”, oxford and ibh publishing pvt. ltd. new delhi, bombay and calcutta. narashimhan, sakuntala (1999) : “empowerment of women : an alternative strategy for rural india,” saga publication india pvt. ltd, new delhi. www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 3, no. 1; 2018 11 reddy, narasimha, (2006), women handloom weavers, facing the burnt, gender and trade policy, centre for handloom information and policy, pp. 1-7. ashalata p, acharya.m.,(2009) ”changing families and life style of women weavers from co-operative society at manipur”,shodh. samiskshaa mulyankan( international research journal)issn – 0974-2832 vol.ii, issue-7. female work participation rates in india, an analysis, rao d.p.(eds)status of women in education, employment and social exclusion, serials publications, new delhi,pp.141-159. (2011) women in handloom industry: problems and prospects, b. premsundar & j.kannan, journal of economic and business review, december 2013 www.epratrust.com vol 1 issue1 p.32-38. women in handloom industry: problems and prospects, b. premsundar & j.kannan, journal of economic and business review, december 2013 www.epratrust.com vol 1 issue1 p.32-38 tasneem shazli, and prof. abdul munir, female work participation in handloom industrya case study of mubarakpur town, azangarh district, u.p. journal of education and society policy. 1: (2014). copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. this is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) american economic & social review; vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 published by centre for research on islamic banking & finance and business, usa 67 turkey and the black sea economic cooperation: opportunities and challenges yusuf ibrahim gamawa1 1department of political science, bauchi state university, gadau, nigeria correspondence: yusuf ibrahim gamawa1,department of political science, bauchi state university, gadau, nigeria, email: yusufgamawa@ymail.com received: january 16, 2018 accepted: february 19, 2018 online published: april 4, 2018 abstract this paper aims to analyse turkey’s relationship with other states in the black sea region, and takes a look at reasons behind the formation of the black sea economic cooperation that was spearheaded by turkey. the paper also highlights the importance of the region and the struggle by outside powers for influence in the region. these powers include russia and the united states, alongside turkey. keywords: black sea, cooperation, turkey, russia, u.s., control. 1. introduction the black sea region is situated at the crossroads of europe and asia, where land, sea, air and river transportation routes meet one another. following the rule of the roman, byzantine, ottoman and the habsburg empires, the region became an area of rivalry. the balkan peninsula is a kind of a transit line, which give an easy access from europe to asia and vice versa, the black sea has been a zone of contention and confrontation for centuries. it is undoubtedly a contested neighborhood and the subject of intense debate. this reflects the changing dynamics of the region, its complex realities, and the interests of extra-regional powers and the regions relation with the rest of the world. its strategic position, linking north to south, west to east, as well as its oil, gas, transport and trade routes are all important reasons for its relevance. the black sea represents a remarkable importance with its human potential, significant economic force, energy sources and a wide spectrum of complimentary industries. in the context of the cold war, it was the scene of east-west strategic competition. in the postcold war era, it has become more complicated and difficult to manage. throughout the cold war, the decisive political and military presence of the super powers provided stability, albeit strained, in the region for forty years. the demise of the soviet union, has on the one hand, liberated ancient sources of tension and grievances that the cold war suppressed and masked, but on the other, allowed for the first time an emergence of a truly cooperative environment around the black sea region [aydin, 2005]. 2. the black sea economic cooperation from the beginning to the present, the black sea region has been an important factor in international relations, and has been an area of rivalry between the u.s.s.r and the u.s.a . the region had faced several unsuccessful cooperation attempts due mainly to its location in the past. located in the gulf, eastern mediterranean and europe, with different people, religion and culture. of all the attempts made at cooperation, only two resulted in success. the first of these attempts was by turkey in 1934, under mustafa kemal attartuk, known as the “large entente”, which did not live long, and the other in 1940, known as the “little entente, which lasted shorter than the first entente. the failure of these attempts at cooperation led to further fragmentation in the region as a result of mistrust, religion, territorial conflict and culture among several other reasons. since the 1940’s no attempt at cooperation was made in the region until 1992, after the collapse of u.ss.r which had been the dominant power in the region. it was in fact the republic of turkey that launched a new cooperation iniatiave as a result of the vacuum created by the u.s.s.r collapse. due mainly to the vacuum, as well as the non interest in the black sea region by the euro-transatlantic community, turkey launched a new cooperation iniative under the name of black sea economic cooperation www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 68 (bsec), which brought together the twelve countries of the wider black sea region. established in 1992, the bsec remains the most institutionalized economic organization with an international legal identity on 1st may, 1999 upon entry into force of its charter. it is the only organization that includes all the six countries (albania, armania, azerbaijan, greece, moldova, serbia and montenegro). poland, slovakia, austria, france, germany, italy, egypt, isreal, tunisia, bsec business council and the international black sea club have observer status. three goal were identified for the new regional organization; *to achieve cooperation rather than conflict *to support regionalism as well as globalization *to avoid new divisions in europe the organisation since its formation, had peace and security in the region as its major aims, though without a clear distictive policy, but rather had sought to pursue these aims within the framework of economic cooperation among member states. and it was gradually that peace and security came to top the agenda of the organisation.also several attempts were made to establish a free trade area in the region, but this became practicallly impossible as member states had to be members of wto before a free trade area could be established. bsec had strong intentions of developing non governmental networks despite its intergovernmental nature, within the black sea region. fort his reason the establishment of its parliamentary assembly predates the formation of its permanent secretariat in 1994. the assembly was established in in 1993 and meets twice every year, and encompasses three committees; economic, commercial, technological and envirometal relations; legal, and political relations; educational, cultural and social relations. the bsec took many initiatives aimed at promoting sub-national cooperation, and many bodies were formed including; association of black sea capital(bsca), the bussiness council in 1992, black sea trade and development in 1994. and many academic cooperations were undertaken, and standing academic committee was founded in athens in 1998. most of the intergovernemetal bodies of bsec were adopted from the eu. it has the summit of heads of states and governments, mean while the decision making body of the organisation is the council of ministers of foreign affairs which meets twice every year and is chaired by the current chairperson holding the six month rotational chairmanship of of the organisation. the chairman is supported by a committee of senior officials organised as working groups. the troika was also introduced in 1995 to ensure continuity, the participation of past and present chairpersons of the organisation at all meetings. the bsec permanent international secretariat was established in istanbul in march, 1994 to coordinate bsec activities under the guidance of the chairperson in office, who coordinates the activities of the working groups [kona, 2005]. 3. motivations to launch the bsec many reasons were advanced for founding the bsec as a regional organisation by different scholars. some were of the opinion that many regional organisations emerged after the collapse of the soviet union, such as barents european atlantic council, central european initiative as well as the black economic cooperation. the foundation of these organisations were mainly for two reasons. the first, political reasons, is that many eastern european nations, after escaping from the soviet union, wanted an opportunity to stabilize their sovereignity and security, while western participants wished to balance the increasing influence of germany in the region. two, on the economic side, these states wanted to develop a common market after the soviet market had collapsed and as long as the european community market is not fully opened. furthermore the countrie were not ready to join the eu, they needed to reshape their market elements and introduce compatible institutional structures [canli, 2006]. other scholars explained it in terms of a sense of isolation from these countries outside the process of european intergration, were the products of the rapidly opening of the european political economy. and also as a result of geography, proximity and many shared reasons and concerns made the black sea states natural partners and has prompted them to cooperate. and for such objectives, in june 1992, the istanbul declaration was signed by the heads of states or governments of albania, azerbaijan, armania, bulgaria, greece, moldova, russia, ukraine and turkey, to integrate the black sea region to the world economy and to convert the area into one of peace, stability and prosperity [ognyan, 2011]. 4.turkey’s interest in the black sea in the early 90’s, turkey displayed a strategic in several of the soviet republics. it saw it as an opportunity to increase its influence in a region encompassing the black sea, the caucasus and central asia. turkey continued to exploit this opportunity in the post soviet era, despite being aware of russia’s interest in region. turkish analysts were said to be monitoring debates on russia’s foreign policy orientations, and monitored that of iran also, which it considers a rival for influence in the caucasus and central asia [buyukakinci, 2004]. turkey’s goal in approaching the former soviet republic, it will appear are mainly to export its own political regime pattern and to cultivate cultural and economic relations at a time when its position in europe was faltering. pipeline politics may have primarily influenced secured to central asia, while avoiding other routes through russia and iran. azerbaijan enjoys a special relationship with turkey also, underlined by cultural elements and economic considerations. azerbaijan’s www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 69 pottential wealth makes it of great importance to turkey. kazekh oil on the other hand could be transported across turkey via azerbaijan. pipeline politics influenced turkey to pursue a policy of close cooperation with georgia, as oil and gas pipelines from the caspian sea will have to go through georgia, given the problems between ankara and yerevan. again, turkey saw an opportunity in using regional cooperation to strengthen its image as a previleged partner of the west, by increasing its influence in the black sea region. turkey’s primary considerations in proposing the creation of bsec according to many scholars, was to explore alternatives to membership of the eu. schemes of regional cooperation offer turkey the possibility of being an important regional actor [ognyan, 2011]. 5.turkey as a factor in the black sea region the process of stabilization and expansion of democratic transformation in the black searegion is very much dependent upon the policies of the second largest country and major regional strategic factor – turkey. being a key member of nato since the 1950s and an applicant for eu membership, turkey is expected to support and assist the democratic process in the black sea region, yet the record of turkey in helping the euro-atlantic strategy for the black sea is rather controversial. ankara supported nato membership for bulgaria and romania, yet in most other positions of turkey in the region, its interests seem closer to moscow rather than to those of brussels. the backbone of turkey’s position is refusal to accept accept multinational nato forces in and around the black sea. turkey pursues a classical nationalist strategy of guarding its traditional domains from any outer interference – of the nato alliance included. legally based on the montreux convention of 1936, ankara refuses to open the black sea for multilateral security operations of nato like “active endeavor” in the mediterranean, replacing it with its own initiatives like black sea harmony. in this way turkey presents an interest much closer to the positions of russia, rather than the positions of the euro-atlantic community. there is a stable consensus between ankara and moscow that the black sea should remain self-sufficient and contained in terms of security and international cooperation. in other words, this means that the region should remain a realm of shared russian – turkish interest, as it has always been for centuries. this position could hardly be shared both by the euro-atlantic community, and in particular – by the smaller littoral countries (nato members bulgaria and romania included), which rely upon international euroatlantic system for defending their security [ognyan, 2011]. 6.the u.s. involvement in the region it is obvious that the integration of the black sea region into the euro-atlantic mainstream could not be achieved in reliance solely on the efforts of smaller countries of the region. much bigger strategic concentration is needed to counter russia’s open hostility towards democracy and independence of post-soviet and post-communist countries of the region, as well as to compensate for the controversial positions of turkey. the strategies of both major international players in the region – the us and the eu – are of crucial importance in promoting the interests of euro-atlantic community and the reformist ambitions of the newly independent states in the black sea region. the us government has always been the main warrant for the opening of the black sea – caspian corridor for free international trade and for collective security planning. russia aims to block, to cork the black sea region, in particular – the south caucasus, in order to prevent international trade and security penetration to the caspian and to central asia – both key elements of its ex-soviet strategic domains. the us advocates just the opposite – free access, free trade, free energy flows to europe and the west. russia aims at systemic destabilization of newly independent societies as georgia, instigating ethnic conflicts and full fledged wars when needed, in order to seal the entire black sea – caspian – central asia region for its own strategic use. the us aims at opening, at assisting newly independent states on their road to democracy and prosperity as part of integrating the larger black sea – caspian region into the euro-atlantic mainstream. that’s why the us is the key ally for the countries in the region in their ambition for independent democratic development, and those countries themselves are the most devoted partners and allies for america in its pursuit of the euro-atlantic strategic agenda for the black sea – caspian region[ognyan, 2011]. 7.turkey and russia in the black sea turkey and russia remain the most powerful states in the black sea region, and historically the black sea is a region where the ottoman and the russian empires struggled for regional dominance at the expense of other states. this rivalry continued between their future states, modern turkey and the soviet union1.though it was said that the two countries since the formation of bsec have pursued a policy of cooperation with one another, and that turkey’s lead in the foundation of bsec was in consultation with russia, and the two countries had developed a bilateral relationship pragmatically in the black sea region, and have continued to cooperate in the area of naval security, economic relations and energy projects. initial hopes were that turkey and post soviet russia could tranform the black sea region into a democratic zone of international cooperation and economic development, but regretfully the 1 oktay f. tanrisever, (2012), turkey and russia in the black sea region:dynamics of cooperation and conflict. centre for economic and foreign policy studies. www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 70 two countries ended up in a serious struggle for regional influence in the balkans, central asia, caucasus and eastern mediteranean throughout the 1990’s. of recent there have been significant rivalries regarding energy, strategies as well as conflicting security strategies in the region as reflected recently in suspended conventional forces in europe (c.f.e) treaty and nato’s european misile defence system, as well as differing positions on ethno territorial conflicts and the process of democratisation in the black sea region. the relationship of russia and turkey is symptomatic of both cooperation and conflict. though many analysts see this as pure arising from turkeys inability to develop a clear vision fort he black sea region which it could use to harmonise its regional policies with those of of turkey’s main western strategic partners; us, nato and the eu to be able to counter balance its dependence on russia in the black sea region [ognyan, 2011]. 8.conclusion regarding black sea, this paper had tried to discuss the formation and importance of the blacksea economic cooperation and the region itself to many european and asian countries, and not only that it has shown its its importance to the global economic system. and in this connection one can say that turkey’s bold move in creating the black sea economic coopertation was good step in the right direction no matter what interests turkey is pursuing. however what one is compelled to make clear is how turkey engages other key players in the region with regards to its ambitions, countries like russia and iran, are equally as strong as turkey interms of influence and military capability. for such reasons turkey’s policies must be prioritized as sugested by scholars, allying with the west may not necesarily help check the overwhelming influence of russia and iran in the region, and even if it will, necessarily with cooperation also, so that it does not become isolated by the two countries. america is seen to be supporting other nations of the eastern europe within the black sea, against the influence of turkey and russia in the region, and so may not likely be dependable for turkey in this matter. references ahmet canli.(2006).regionalism in the black sea area and black sea cooperation, florida university. ersan bocutoglu/ gokhan kocer.( 2007).politicoeconomic conflicts in the black sea region in the postcold war era, center for black sea, caucasus and central asian studies, karadeniz technical university, turkey. erhan buyukakinci.(2004).security issues and patterns of cooperation in the black sea region, turkish year book. gamze gungormus kona.(2003). the black sea economic cooperation organization, kocaeli universitesi sosyal bilimler enstitusu, dergisi(5). giray saynur bockurt,(2011).security policy of turkey and russia in the black sea basin, kardeniz arastirmalari. ines hartwig, the black sea economic cooperation process. ongnyan minchev,(2011).institute for regional and international studies, the black sea region:strategic balance and policy agenda. www.iris-b.org mustapha aydin.(2005).regional cooperation in the black sea and the role of institutions. niklas nilson.(2008).eu and russia in the black sea region; i̇ncresıngly competing interests, romanian journal of european affairs,8. oktay f. tanrisever.(2012).turkey and russia in the black sea region: dynamics of cooperation and conflict, centre for economic and foreign policy studies. the house of europe in rhodes.(2012). black sea economic co-operation; towards a 2020 vision for the black sea region; reviewing the goals for sustainable development, good governance and efficient conflict and crisis management. copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. this is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) contents american economic & social review vol. 1, no. 1; 2017 published by centre for research on islamic banking & finance and business 1 managerial skills: an imperative for business education in enhancing nigerian dwindling economy lukman suleiman1 mansur saidu adam2 usman dahiru jibrin3 umar buba4 1+2+3+4 department of vocational and technology education, faculty of technology education, abubakar tafawa balewa university, bauchi, bauchi state, nigeria. correspondence: lukman suleiman, department of vocational and technology education, faculty of technology education, abubakar tafawa balewa university, bauchi, bauchi state, nigeria, tel: + 07037714353, e-mail: karshal.rahuljaiswai@gmail.com received: september 21, 2017 accepted: september 28, 2017 online published: october 2, 2017 abstract the main aim of this study is to determine the important of business education managerial skills in overcoming the problems of economic recession in nigeria. literature was extensively reviewed in relation to business education, managerial skills and economic recession, on that note the concept of business education was discussed by different literature. furthermore, five (5) importance of business education were identified in relation to the economic development and the nation’s dwindling economy. the study went further and identifies different kind of managerial skills needed by business education students, these skills were found to be very essential in promoting the nigerian economy and also serves as a way of eradicating the dwindling economy of any given nation. keywords: business education, managerial skills, dwindling economy. 1. introduction dwindling economy has a direct relationship with decline in wealth, consumption and business/managerial skills, along with government spending that represent the nation’s economic engine. the national bureau of economic research (nber)defined dwindling economy as a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, which have a direct effect on real gross domestic product (gdp), real income, employment, industrial production, wholesale and retail sales. dwindling economy can also be seen as a negative real gdp growth rate in a country for two or more consecutive quarters. judging by the above definitions, nigeria is experiencing economic recession especially by the year 2016. however, the economy of nigeria is appreciating towards the year ending of 2017 (kale, maigari, & haruna, 2017) business education as a discipline is expected to expose its recipients to diversity of skills needed in the world managerial skills: an imperative for business education in enhancing nigerian dwindling economy lukman et al. 2 of work. hence, it is the type of education that inculcates in its recipients attitudes, knowledge, skills and values that are required in the business world (salome, 2012). this is a means of producing a healthy, literate self-reliant citizen that would create wealth for human development, when they become self-employed, thereby resulting to sustainable nation’s development at large. business education must have impacted managerial skills and creative knowledge required for employment generation opportunities, such skills and competences that would also make the business graduates to adopt some strategic survival drives. according to (ibrahim, 2014) managerial skills are those essential skills that are needed to get most jobs that are helpful to employees to stay in a job and facilitate their promotions. the skills are flexibly adapted, applied and transferred under different contexts necessary for gainful employment. according to halliru (2011) managerial skills include technical skills, human relation skills, conceptual skills, design skills, critical thinking and judgments skills, skills in solving complex, multidisciplinary and open-ended problems, creativity and entrepreneurial thinking skills, communicating and collaborating skills, skills in making innovative use of knowledge, information and opportunities and skills in taking charge of financial health and civic responsibilities. the framework of managerial skills of senior (2009) indicated that, a good curriculum should provide students with skills on effective communication; supervision; coordinating; planning and think strategically, with clear vision, information and communication. to this end, business education skills are very essential that if properly acquired and utilize would go a long way in improving the employment opportunities of the youths and also mitigate the level of nigerian dwindling economy. 2. concept of business education business education is an essential ingredient of vocational education. in nigeria, the education is offered at both the secondary and tertiary institutions of learning. according to abdullahi (2002) business education is an aspect of educational programme which provides the recipients with knowledge, skills, understanding and attitude needed to perform well in the business world as a producer or consumer of goods and services. furthermore, osuala (2004) is of the opinion that business education is a broad area of knowledge that deals with a nation’s economic system and also identifies and explains the rate of business contentment and experience that prepare individuals for effective participation as citizens, workers and consumers. the national open university of nigeria (noun) (2008) defines business education as an aspect of vocational education that equips people with necessary skills and theoretical knowledge needed for performance in business world either for job occupation or self-employment. finally, aliyu (2013) stated that the purpose of business education is to stress the need for fundamental instruction to help students assume their economic roles as consumers, workers and citizens in boosting the nation’s economy, providing specialized instruction to prepare students with necessary skills for career in business. it can be deduced from the definitions above that business education is an education for and about business. it combines both theoretical knowledge and practical skills needed in the work place. in the same vein, it exposes the recipients to the economic system of their country and equips them with lifelong skills that would enable them to make reasonable judgement as a producers (entrepreneurs), employees or consumers of goods and services. 3. importance of business education to the nigerian economy the importance of business education to the nigerian economy will never be over emphasized, however, emmanuel, omotayo, and tuke (2015) pointed out some of the importance of business education in enhancing the nation’s economy as follows: managerial skills: an imperative for business education in enhancing nigerian dwindling economy lukman et al. 3  business education is important to the nation in providing skills that enables them to become employers of labour, so that people become job creators and over-dependence on government work would also minimize.  business education develops proper values towards work as they contribute more to the economic development of the nation by providing the required skills needed by handicrafts men and women which lead them to become self-reliant.  business education provides its recipients with the skills that if properly utilize they can spend their resources judiciously which in turn the country gains by way of investing excess resources on meaningful projects that would lead to economic development. today, we are talking about economic recession and rate of inflation, this can be minimize if we spend wisely.  business education has made it possible for those who want to be retrained in order to upgrade their skills and have access to education. in this way, people who finish secondary school with no saleable skills will have to acquire skills that make them become functional, through retraining programmes.  business education prepares its recipients for the world of work, they can either take up teaching profession or they become business people. 4. managerial skills needed by business education management is an aspect of business education that provide the students with managerial functions, skills and other business related talents that will help them to work effectively in an organization. literatures comes up with different types of management skills needed by business education that will serve as a route in ensuring the nation’s economic growth and development so that the nigerian dwindling economy would be eradicated. nazir (2010) said that leadership skills is the management skills that require business education to set-up priorities, delegate, motivate, coach and develop your people to become top performers and communicate objectives and goals of the organisation. salome (2012) further emphasized that the skill comes from the knowledge of and proficiency in activities involving methods, procedures and processes of getting thing done. to this end the skills involve efficiency in dealing with subordinate, working with tools, techniques and equipment to coordinate the activities of the organization to perform as expected. communication skills is the skill that require the manager to get points across by creating a compelling presentation to support goals and get buy-in for ideas, inspire others to achieve better results and demonstrate emotional intelligence (nwanaka & samuel, 2011). in a similar view, riebe, girardi, and whitsed (2016) reiterated that communication skills are the capability to express information to another person effectively and efficiently. thus, the skills can be verbal or non-verbal, written or unwritten means of communication that facilitate the sharing of information between two or more people in an organization. human relation skills is the management skills that involve the ability to work with people (ibrahim, 2014). this involves cooperating with one another as a team by creating an environment when people feel secured and free to express their opinions. collaboration skills are the managers’ commitment to form alliances and negotiate effectively (okolie. 2014). nazir, (2010) further said that collaborative skills are a skill that involves working together with other people through idea sharing and thinking to accomplish a common goal. developing and encouraging collaborative skills in workplace is likely to enhance team commitment and individual performance, which might result in minimizing the nigerian dwindling economy. robles (2012) said that conceptual skill is the ability to see the big picture of the ends in view (objective) of where you are going. it also demands that you should be able to see those activities that are necessary to realize managerial skills: an imperative for business education in enhancing nigerian dwindling economy lukman et al. 4 the big picture of the organization, the picture must be clear, capable of supervising and monitoring the activities of employees, customers and the management in order to improve the efficiency of the organization and increase employability in the nation. according to riebe, girardi, and whitsed (2016) critical thinking skills involves the managers’ ability to approach problem solving logically, research options, avoid biases and focus on meaningful data to draw the right conclusions even under pressure. the skills empower managers to assess the credibility, accuracy and value of information, analyse and evaluate information, make reasoned decisions and take purposeful action. this will help in developing a clear and core effective thinking in promoting the image of businesses in nigeria. design skill is the ability of manager to solve problems associated with how to combine colour, graphics, technology, text, ideas and other relevant ingredients to come up with a product which will benefit the organization, customers and the nation at large (snyder, 2013). this can open a way to job creation and also reduce the inflation rate in the country. finance skill is the capability to weigh different types of currencies implications of business in making decisions, including the ability to build a sound budget and formulate reasonable forecasts. it involves taking charge of financial, health and civic responsibilities and making wise choices by deciding how to invest their savings (halliru, 2011). the basic skills needed to accurately predict revenues and unit costs of product is a helping matter in determining the average number of labour needed to employ (ibrahim, 2014). nigerians need more specialized financial skills simply because appropriate resource allocation requires critical thinking that favour marketplace and the nigerian economy at large, this can reduce the over dependence on government work. okolie, (2014)said that to grasp the scope and objectives of any given projects, the manager must acquire the project management skills, this will help to recognize the roles and responsibilities of others. the manager will use tools to stay on track and become an effective member of a cross-functional team. in that building a social foundation of project management knowledge and techniques will cover the entire project life cycle. creativity and entrepreneurial thinking skill is a skill that is highly demanded to boost the nigerian economy. it is highly associated with job creation, many of the fastest-growing jobs and emerging industries rely on workers’ creative capacity and the ability to think unconventionally in creating something new (sikorski, 2007). the global marketplace rewards organizations that rapidly and routinely find better ways of doing things. likewise, nigerians can create jobs for themselves and others with an entrepreneurial mind-set to recognize and act on opportunities and the willingness to embrace risk and responsibility for the nation’s economic growth. 5. conclusion this study stressed the need for minimizing the ongoing economic recession in nigeria, fundamentally there is urgent need to inculcate managerial skills in the curriculum of business education at all levels, this would help the students acquire some skills which in turn enables them to assume their economic roles as consumers, workers and citizens in boosting the nation’s economy. it is however noticed that business education is an umbrella term in providing these types of skills. the skills are very essential that if properly acquired and utilized would go a long way in improving the employment opportunities of the youths and also mitigate the level of the nigerian dwindling economy. it can be deduced that business education is an education for and about business, it combines both theoretical knowledge and practical skills needed in the work place. in the same vein, it exposes the recipients to the economic system of a country and equips them with life-long skills that would enable them to make reasonable judgement as a producer, employee or consumer of goods and services. to this end, the importance of business managerial skills: an imperative for business education in enhancing nigerian dwindling economy lukman et al. 5 education managerial skills to nigerian economy will never be over emphasize, the study concludes that to mitigate the economic recession in nigeria, many literature come to realized that utilization of managerial skills have a significant impact in enhancing the nation’s economy 6. recommendation the following recommendations were raised  there should be a provision for periodic retraining of business education teachers to update their knowledge in the various areas of management skills. this will expose them to modern trends in management across the globe and contribute to the nation’s economy.  business education teachers should re-dedicate themselves by attending more workshops and seminars to acquaint themselves with these skills so that they can in turn, impart same in the students.  the higher institutions should emphasis on curriculum that is aimed at improving skills and expanding the production of management professionals in the country.  management education should become a main-stream activity in education to enable transformations of nigerian economic growth and development. references abdullahi a. 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(2008). business education methods. lagos: national open university of nigeria. nazir, m. (2010). problem-based learning on students‟ critical thinking skills in teaching business education. . american journal of business education, 3(6). nwanaka c. r, & samuel, a. (2011). skills acquisition: imperative for business studies educators among secondary schools in rivers state. mediterranean journal of social sciences, 2(7). salome, e. n. (2012). the teacher and skills acquisition at business education: from the perspective of aacounting skills. arabian journal of business and management review, 2(4). okolie, u. c., (2014). influence of entrepreneurship education on students attaining business development awareness and skills acquisition in nigeria. journal of research & method in education, 4(3), 37-44. osuala, e. c. (2004). foundation of vocational education, (5th ed).enugu: cheston agency ltd. robles, m. m. (2012). executive perceptions of the top 10 soft skills needed in today’s workplace. business communication quarterly, 75(4), 453-465. doi:10.1177/1080569912460400 managerial skills: an imperative for business education in enhancing nigerian dwindling economy lukman et al. 6 riebe, l., girardi, a., & whitsed, c. (2016). teaching teamwork skills in australian higher education business disciplines: teaching and learning forum. senior z. (2009). challenges of labour market on graduates in 21st century: unpublished. sikorski a. (2007). why career development, from http://www.lehigh.edu/ retrieved on 4/12/2011. snyder, m. j. (2013). teaching critical thinking and problem solving skills. copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. american economic & social review; vol. 4, no. 1; 2018 issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 impact factor: 3.9 published by centre for research on islamic banking & finance and business, usa 15 the dynamics of exports and economic growth: assessing the evidence from nigeria clement a.u. ighodaro ph.d associate professor and head department of economics & statistics university of benin (uniben) benin city nigeria e-mail: clemigho2006@yahoo.com ovenseri-ogbomo f. o. ph.d (corresponding author) senior lecturer department of economics, banking and finance benson idahosa university benin city nigeria e-mail: fovenseri-ogbomo@biu.edu.ng received: november 21, 2018 accepted: november 28, 2018 online published: december 1, 2018 abstract the paper empirically examines the dynamics of exports and economic growth in nigeria using time series data for 1970 to 2017. the vector autoregressive model (var) was used to investigate the long run and short run relationship between exports and economic growth as well as some selected variables. the result shows that there exists a stable long run relationship among economic growth, exports, capital expenditure on education and social services. also, the granger causality results reveal that export granger causes economic growth and not the other way round. this means that an increase in economic growth may result from increase in export, but increase in economic growth does not necessarily lead to increase in exports. the impulse response function (irf) shows that a one standard innovation in exports will lead to permanent positive impact on economic growth in nigeria. this therefore supports the exports led growth hypothesis for nigeria. keywords: economic growth, endogeneity, multivariate and granger causality. 1. introduction since the late 1960s, studies have been conducted to examine the role of export performance in the economic growth process. although, the empirical literature can he considered to be vast, however, its results are clearly contradictory for developing countries and industrialized economies, a feature that could explain why this topic is still at the top of the agenda for many economists. most authors as well as multilateral institutions would agree that promoting exports and achieving export expansion are beneficial for both developed and developing countries for many reasons which according to (world bank, ‘1993) as documented in medina smith and de carabobo (2000), include the following (i) they generate a greater capacity utilization; (ii) they take advantage of economies of scale; (iii) they bring about technological progress; (iv) they create employment and increase labour productivity; (v) they improve allocation of scarce resources throughout the economy; (vi) they relax the current account pressures for foreign capital goods by increasing the country’s external earnings and attracting foreign investment; and (vii) they increase the total factor productivity and consequently the well-being of the country. mailto:clemigho2006@yahoo.com www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 4, no. 1; 2018 16 although, most of the empirical works support the export led economic growth hypothesis, there is no overall consensus on this issue. while some economists like (ram, 1985; fosu (1990) as well as salvatore and hacler, 1991) seem to generally agree that exports benefit economic growth, others like (jung and marshal, 2016 as well as ahmad and harnhirum, 1995) did not find much support for export led economic growth hypothesis. on the other hand, henriqes and sadorsky (1996) found that export granger causes economic growth, shan and sun (1998) found bi-directional causality between these variables. since there appears to be no consensus on the relationship between export and economic growth in nigeria and the direction of causality, this paper investigates this relationship using data from 1970 to 2003. this paper is organized as follows. section two provides a review of some relevant literature while section three considers methodology and empirical analyses and results obtained. section four deals with conclusion and policy implications. 2. review of relevant literature although, like several other authors, caves (1971) stated many decades ago that “tests of the export-led model, then, must intrinsically involve country case studies present industrial countries in their years of rapid growth or of presently underdeveloped countries”. these investigations have examined the connection between export performance and the rate of economic growth in particular nations, in some cases using modern time series analysis (khan and saqib, 2017; serletis, 1992; henriques and sadorsky, 1996 & al-yousif 1997). while the results that emanate from cross-section studies, based on bi-variate models or ad hoc aggregate production function generally agree on the positive relationship between export performance and economic growth, it is odd that the empirical results obtained by researchers involved in country case studies strongly differ between nations and periods of time studied (shan & sun, 2015). this disparity might imply that although cross-section studies are empirically attractive for researchers, they could obscure inter-country differences and sacrifice revealing information about the behaviour of many countries. the most recent time series investigations concerning developed countries that have used the econometric methodology of cointegration have not been able to establish unequivocally that a robust relationship between these variables indeed exists in the long run, namely that the variables are cointegrated as documented in, for example, (islam, 1998). while some have been able to find a long-run relationship, many others have rejected the elg hypothesis i.e. that export expansion causes growth in the long run. al-yousif (1997) attempted to remedy the lack of empirical evidence related to major oil exporters by analyzing four arab gulf countries which are all members of opec: saudi arabia, kuwait, the united arab emirates and oman. as in other empirical studies in this field, he was unable to verify the existence of a long-run relationship between exports and economic growth in the four major petroleum exporters of the persian gulf. a possible justification of the positive results obtained in the investigation conducted by most researchers is that these researchers employed population and investment as proxies for the appropriate aggregate inputs, i.e. labour force and capital stock. although they have been widely used in many cross-section growth studies as well as time series analysis, many researchers have had serious doubts about them, they thus expressed their suspicion regarding studies that have tested the export promotion hypothesis by using, for instance, the investment output ratio, as opposed to capital stock or population instead of labour force, for instance, alexander (1994) among others rejected the use of these proxies in growth studies not only on theoretical grounds but also from an empirical point of view. they suggested that if capital stock data are available, they should be used instead of investment because of the “significant measurement errors” present in these types of empirical growth studies. however, if data regarding the stock of capital are not available, a common recommendation nowadays is to construct a series of capital stock (khan & saqib, 2017). 3. methodology and empirical analyses in general, previous literature suggests that there are a numbers of factors influencing economic growth generally and thus spurious regression will result it only the relationship between export and economic growth is being tested. the model used for this study is stated below: 1111 ( xsosxeduexpfgdp  ---------------------------------------------------------------------(1) where; t is time measured chronologically; gdp1 = growth rate of gross domestic product (proxy for economic growth) exp1= total exports xedu1= capital expenditure on education xsos1= capital expenditure on social services www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 4, no. 1; 2018 17 a priori, it is expected that there will be positive relationship between total exports, capital expenditure on education, social services and economic growth. for example, balassa (1985) argued that in general export expansion helps to concentrate investment in those sectors which in turn increase the overall total factor productivity. the theory also suggests that causality may run from output to export. for example, lancaster (1980) and krugrnan (1984) justify one – way causality from output to exports. the data for the study are obtained from the central bank of nigeria statistical bulletin (2004). 3.1 stationarity test the augmented dickey fuller (adf) [dickey and fuller, 1979] and phillips — perron (pp) [phillips and perron, 1988] tests were used to find out the stationarity of the variables. consider the equation below:     m xaa 11 111111211  --------------------------------------------------------------(2) where: 1 is our variable of interest ),,,( 111,1 xsosxeduexpgdp is the difference operator, it is the time trend and c is the while noise residual of zero mean and constant mean and constant variance; ),...,,( 121 maa  is a set of parameters to be estimated. the null and the alternative hypotheses in the unit root tests are: 0:0 h ( 1 is non — stationary) 0:1 h ( 1 is stationary) the unit root hypothesis of dickeyfuller can be rejected if the t-statistics from these tests is negatively less than the critical value. 3.2 cointegration test to perform cointegration test, the study uses the johansen and juselius (1990) multivariate cointegration test by formulating the var model below: pptpt lilli   111111 )(...)()(  --------------------------------------------------(3) where 1 , is ),,,( 1111 xsosxeduexpgdp ; a column vector and i, (l) with i = 1,..., p is a lag operator ɛ is the while noise residual of zero mean and constant variance. the order of lag of the model p is determined in advanced by akaike’s information criterion (aic). in the test, the null hypothesis of the cointegrating vectors is the alternative of r + 1 cointegrating vectors. 3.3 granger causality test equation (3) can be adapted for the nigerian economy, particularly in examining the export led growth hypothesis in a multivariate framework with the variables as earlier described in equation (1), equation (3) can be expressed in error correction (ecm) form as:     ).0()1( 2 141331221110  iidvecmylxsosyylxeduylexpyyylgdp ttt (5)     ).0()1( 2 41331221110  iiduuecmylxsosyylxeduylgdpyyylexp ttttt (6) where ecm lagged one period is the error correction term derived from the long run cointegrating relationship. while the estimated coefficient of ecm ( 4y ) measures the long run relationship, 1y , 2y ,…, 4y measures the short run causal relation. 3.4 impulse response function (irf) the generalized impulse response function (girf) can be defined as: girf (n, ε1, ωt-1) = e[yt+n | εj, t, ωt-1] – e[yt+n | ϖt-1] t (7) where yt a random vector is εt+1 is a random shock, ϖt-1 a specific realization of the information set ωt-1 and n is the forecast horizon. www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 4, no. 1; 2018 18 4. results and interpretation 4.1 unit root tests using the adf and the pp tests for stationarity, it was found that the series are all 1(1) at both 1% and 5% significance level as shown in the table below. table 1: results for unit root tests variables adf test pp test intercept only trend & intercept result intercept only trend & intercept results lgdp -3.843563 *** (-3.6576) -3.963021 ** (-3.5614) 1(1) -5.685272 *** (3.6496) -5.768655 *** (-4.2712) 1(1) lexp -5.935315 *** (-3.6576) -5.846911 *** (-4.2826) 1(1) -8.447214 *** (-3.6496) -8.342028 *** (-4.2712) 1(1) lxedu -4.753569 *** (-3.6576) -4.537369 *** (-4.2826) 1(1) -5.632645 *** (-3.6496) -6.64272 *** (-4.2712) 1(1) lxsos -9.135986 *** (-3.6661) -4.537369 *** (-4.2826) 1(1) -7.379342 *** (-3.6496) -7.453436 *** (-4.2712) 1(1) *** significant at 1% level of significance ** significant at 5% level of significance 4.2 results of cointegration tests using the johansen multivariate cointegration technique and based on the maximum eigen value, we conclude that there exists a single cointegration vector in the model as shown in table two below: table 2: results of johansen and juselius cointegration results sample: 1970 2017 included observations: 48 test assumption: linear deterministic trend in the data series: lgdp lexp lxedu lxsos lags interval: 1 to 1 eigenvalue likelihood ratio 5 percent critical value 1 percent critical value hypothesized no. of ce(s) 0.559463 51.44444 47.21 54.46 none * 0.444390 25.21206 29.68 35.65 at most 1 0.180025 6.406039 15.41 20.04 at most 2 0.001706 0.054630 3.76 6.65 at most 3 * ( ** ) denotes rejection of the hypothesis at 5% (1%) significance level l.r. test indicates 1 cointegrating equitation(s) at 5% significance level the normalized cointegrating coefficients give the long run estimate as below: lgdp = – 6.151 – 2.922lexp + 1.464lxedu + 3.104lxsos (1.209) (1.055) (1.435) (7) equation (7) indicates that export has negative relationship with economic growth on the long run, though, with a high elasticity. the result is in line with the study of dorado (1993) in a similar study of the malaysian economy. however, in the short run, the estimated error correction term for d(lgdp) is statistically significant at 1%. also, the speed of adjustment to long run is high at (-0673). the short run dynamics for the log of the first difference of gross domestic product reveals that all the variables have the expected sign except first lag of exports as well as first and second lags of capital expenditure on social services. it is worthy to note that in the short run, an increase in exports only increase economic growth in the previous two years. among the variables used, capital expenditure on education appears to be the most significant determinant of economic growth in nigeria. it is also found that though the separate effects of the variables may be insignificant by the t-statistics, the joint effect of the variables will significantly influence economic growth based on the f-statistics. www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 4, no. 1; 2018 19 in the dynamics of the first difference of exports, it was found that the second lag of capital expenditure on education is the most important variables. in the short run dynamics of capital expenditure on education, the estimated error correction term has a contrary sign with a very low coefficient. on the other hand, capital expenditure on social services appears to be the most important variable in the short run dynamics of d (lxsos) as shown in table three below. table 3: vector error correction result sample (adjusted): 1973 2017 included observations: 48 after adjusting endpoints standard error & t-statistics in parentheses cointegrating eq: cointeg1 lgdp(-1) 1.000000 lexp(-1) -2.217615 (0.41061) (-5.40084) lxedu(-1) 2.984899 (0.45394) (6.57559) lxsos(-1) 0.499324 (0.34344) (1.45390) c -6.137688 error correction: d(lgdp) d(lexp) d(lxedu) d(lxsos) cointeq1 -0.673358 (-4.89664) 0.179768 (1.96920) 0.014576 (0.21659) -0.046042 (-0.41356) d(lgdp(-1)) 0.122411 (0.59406) 0.035560 (0.25996) 0.111561 (1.10625) 0.187664 (1.12492) d(lgdp(-2)) 0.391359 (1.84529) -0.092342 (-0.65587) -0.117404 (-1.13111) -0.115013 (-0.66983) d(lexp(-1)) -0.853806 (-1.42424) 0.214416 (0.53185) -0.143186 (0.73002) 0.674154 (1.38904) d(lexp(-2)) 0.149918 (0.34010) -0.214416 (-0.73271) -0.143186 (-0.66372) -0.267756 (-0.75028) d(lxedu(-1)) 1.306010 (2.47897) -0.393377 (-1.12476) -0.062907 (-024398) 0.393694 (0.92303) d(lxedu(-2)) 1.362213 (2.68709) -0.745703 (-2.21579) -0.271001 (-1.09230) -0.154769 (-0.37710) d(lxsos(-1)) -0.212143 (-0.86316) -0.022299 (-0.13667) 0.072594 (0.60353) -0.412545 (-2.07332) d(lxsos(-2)) -0.444017 0.358784 0.102615 0.260889 www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 4, no. 1; 2018 20 (-1.82284) (2.21875) (0.86079) (1.32294) c -0.062120 (-0.63310) 0.154324 (2.36916) 0.080948 (1.68567) 0.049992 (0.62932) r-squared 0.643745 0.4317077 0.173714 0.440659 4.3 pairwise granger causality test the pair wise granger causality tests reveal that there is unilateral relationship between exports and economic growth with the causality running from export to economic growth. the result further revealed that exports granger causes capital expenditure on education and social services. the result did not show any evidence of reverse causality which means that there is no problem of endogeneity. the result is shown in table for below: table 4: granger causality results pairwise granger causality tests sample: 1970 2017 lags: 2 null hypothesis: obs f-statistic probability lexp does not granger cause lgdp lgsp does not granger cause lexp 48 2.95462 0.70405 0.06912 0.50343 lxedu does not granger cause lgdp lgdp does not granger cause lxedu 48 1.43754 0.38559 0.25512 0.68374 lxsos does not granger cause lgdp lgdp does not granger cause lxsos 48 0.49497 1.50237 0.61501 0.24062 lxedu does not granger cause lexp lexp does not granger cause lxedu 48 0.35426 3.33236 0.70491 0.05088 lxsos does not granger cause lexp lexp does not granger cause lxsos 48 1.19172 10.8496 0.31917 0.00035 lxsos does not granger cause lxedu lxedu does not granger cause lxsos 48 0.79310 5.40114 0.46270 0.01064 4.4 results of impulse response function (irfs) and variance decomposition the impulse response function as shown in figure one reveals that a one standard deviation shock on economic growth induces more economic growth in the first years and after the second year, began to fall and in the third year became negative throughout the ten years period. on the other hand, a one standard deviation shock on total exports induces more economic growth throughout the ten years period. this was the contrary with a one standard deviation shock on capital expenditure on education and social services. these impacted negatively on economic growth as shown in figure one below. figure one: impulse response function (ifrs) response to one s.d. innovations response of lgdp to lxedu 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 response of lgdp to lgdp www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 4, no. 1; 2018 21 4.5 variance decomposition the result shows that at the end of ten years, all the variables are strongly endogenous except the variable representing economic growth. specifically, the forecast error variance for lgdp, lexp, lxedu and lxsos are 10.13%, 70.47%, 91.77% and 73.91% respectively as shown in table five below: table 5: variance decomposition period lgdp lexp lxedu lxsos 1 100.000 54.01572 99.93407 93.90853 2 75.31464 63.43650 96.24512 69.67855 3 47.13629 59.45352 94.55185 74.71588 4 27.86811 62.75408 93.26340 73.19829 5 20.08576 64.88225 92.39210 72.87481 6 16.26251 66.85111 92.19956 73.60076 7 13.99194 67.93567 91.99272 73.55004 8 12.39418 68.83610 91.98258 73.84307 9 11.12299 69.72068 91.88635 73.87481 10 10.13392 70.47443 91.76646 73.90597 ordering: lgdp lexp lxedu lxsos 5. conclusion and policy implications the main objective of the paper is to empirically examine the dynamics of exports and economic growth in nigeria using time series data for 1970 to 2017. the vector autoregressive model (var) was applied to investigate the long run and short run relationship between exports and economic growth as well as some selected variables. the result shows that there exists a stable long run relationship among economic growth, exports, capital expenditure on education and social services. also, the granger causality results reveal that export granger causes economic growth and not the other way round. this means that an increase in economic growth may result from increase in export, but increase in economic growth does not necessarily lead to increase in exports. the impulse response function shows that a one standard innovation in exports will lead to permanent positive impact on economic growth in nigeria. this therefore supports the exports led growth hypothesis for nigeria. in general, exports are a viable variable that determines economic growth in nigeria. references ahmad, j. & harnhirun, s. 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(1971). export-led growth and the new economic history, in: trade, balance of payments and growth, eds. j. n. bhagwati, r. w. jones, r. a. mundell and j. vanek. amsterdam: north holland, chapter 19, pp. 403-42. central bank of nigeria, cbn (2018). statistical bulletin. vol. 31 dickey, d.a & fuller, d.a.(1979). distributions of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. journal of american statistical association 74: 427-431. dorado, s. (1993). exports and growth: a reconsideration of causality. journal of developing areas, 27: 227-244. fosu, a.k. (1990). exports and economics growth: the african case. world development, 18: 831 – 835. henriques, i. & sadorsky, p. (1996). export-led growth or growth-driven export? canadian journal of economics, 3,4: 440 – 555. islam, m.n. (1998) export expansion and economic growth: testing for cointegration and causality. applied economics, 30, 415 – 25. johansen, s. & juselius, k. 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(2000). is the export-led growth hypothesis valid for developing countries? a case study of costa rica. united nations conference on trade and development, unctad: policy issues in international trade and commodities study series, no. 7. united nations. phillips, p.c.b. & perron, p. (1988). testing for a unit root in time series regression. biometrical, 75, 335 – 46. ram, r. (1985) exports and economic growth: some additional evidence. economic development and cultural change, 33, 415 – 25. salvatore, d. & hatcher, t. (1991) inward and outward oriented trade strategies. journal of development studies 27, 7 – 25. serletis, a. (1992) export growth and canadian economic development. journal of development economics, 38, 133 – 45. shan, j. & sun, f. (2015). export-led growth hypothesis for australia: an empirical reinvestigation. applied economics letters, 5: 423 – 428. world bank (1993). the east asian miracle (london: oxford university press). copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. this is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) american economic & social review; vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 published by centre for research on islamic banking & finance and business 1 community oriented-rural tourism development model indra bahadur malla thakuri1 & govind nepal2 1mewar university, rajasthan, india 2tribhuvan university, kathmandu, nepal correspondence: indra bahadur malla thakuri, mewar university, rajasthan, india, e-mail: ibmalla@hotmail.com received: october 25, 2017 accepted: october 29, 2017 online published: january 2, 2018 abstract nepal is endowed with the majestic himalayan ranges, including mt. everest, which is 8848 m, is the world’s highest mountain peak. nepal is renowned world-wide as a prime tourist destination due to its unparalleled natural beauty; diverse bio-diversity; ethnic, lingual and social diversity; and historical and cultural wealth. there are many lakes, rivers, mountainous areas, museums, national parks, historical places, greenery forests, cultural heritages which become attractions to the tourists in nepal. rural setting is one of the most potential areas to promote the rural tourism where tourists can have opportunity to observe the rural setting, culture, life-style, social relationship, hospitality etc of rural people in nepal. so, the study has developed the community oriented rural tourism development model covering the stages of development. the study was conducted in lamjung, tanahu and nawalparasi districts among the home-stay operators, tourist experts and other tourism related stakeholders. indepth interview was done with the respondents to collect their opinion about the best model of rural tourism. the study has developed the community oriented rural tourism development model (co-rtdm) which has explained the seven stages of development. keywords: community-oriented, development, model, tourism, rural. 1. introduction tourism is one of the productive business activities directed for the production of the goods and services. it provides goods and services to the customers (visitors, generally foreigners) and employment and income to the locals. tourism has burgeoned worldwide in the last two and half decades and outshined traditional industries to become one of the world's largest and fastest growing economic activities (pao, 2005). tourism supplements the foreign earnings derived from trade in commodities and sometimes finance the import goods necessary for the growth of manufacturing sectors in the economy. countries like usa, japan, germany, and the uk hold dominant position in outgoing tourism. meanwhile, countries such as italy, france, usa, spain, switzerland, and greece possess strong positions in incoming tourism (cottrel, 2003, p. 2). nepal is the largest industry in the tourism attraction due to of its possessing eight of the ten highest mountains in the world; nepal is a hotspot destination for mountaineers, rock climbers and people seeking adventure. the hindu and buddhist heritage of nepal and its cool weather are also strong attractions. generally, tourism researchers have evaluated tourism attractions/resources from three different perspectives: 1) the ideographic perspective, 2) the organizational perspective, and 3) the cognitive perspective (lew, 1994; lew, 1987). the ideographic perspective is related to the supply component and often assesses tourism attractions/resources by asking public and private tourism professionals such as tourism stakeholders to ascertain which tourism resources or elements are the most important to tourists and to destination attractiveness. the organizational perspective is associated with the linkages component that focuses on the spatial and temporal nature of tourism attractions/resources. lastly, the cognitive perspective is associated with the demand component. most research from this perspective deals with the degree to which tourists are able to take risks in their travel experiences, www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 2 depending on the different types of tourism attractions available. any single approach may not cover and evaluate the entire tourism attraction system. also, there are some limitations to each approach in terms of inappropriate classification methods (leiper, 1990). thus, cross perspectives or a combination of these perspectives are suggested. eco-tourism, a sub-category of sustainable tourism, is perceived by many japanese rural communities as a new way to attract visitors and stimulate local economies through generating tourism revenues while conserving the natural, social and cultural resources of communities. as a result, many communities have started to develop ecotourism. rural communities that are trying to develop ecotourism are also challenged by the need to as a sub-system to understand and manage the complex relationship between community and extra-community stakeholder. in some cases, tourism has the potential to create negative impacts, especially if allowed to develop without proper planning. gunn said and indicated that there is no other form of development 'that has so many far-reaching tentacles as tourism does'. specifically, tourism can impact a community in ways that would, on the surface, appear to be unrelated to the tourism industry (gunn, 1994) mutual, social and cultural interactions between residents and tourists are inevitable, since the tourist movements contribute to encountering different societies and areas, with an increasingly altering level of their differences. thus, the quality of interaction between tourists and residents contributes to both tourists experience and perception of the visited destination and acceptance and tolerance of tourist by residents. many elements of national cultures (values, norms or rules) have a considerable impact on tourists' behavior, their holiday expectations, satisfactions and consequently repeated visits (reisinger & turner, 2003).total quality management of tourist service provider can influence the tourists and it can motivate tourists' repeated visit and possibility to refer other too. besides that other basic infrastructures are pre-requisite for the tourism development. transportation is essential to tourism and a key determinant of destination development. the extent and standard of infrastructure and services influence the decisions of tourists and the tourism industry, helping to establish overall flows between and within countries. deficiencies and doubts about safety are likely to be an impediment to growth, but provision of an adequate transportation system can be a challenge for some states that lack resources for investment and regulation (henderson, 2009, p. 199). countries with poor safety records and without an appropriate transportation infrastructure and set of operators and services will be disadvantaged as tourist destinations and the topic acquires heightened relevance for some locations and markets. for example, it has been argued that western tourists are most anxious about reliable and safe travelling when visiting smaller relatively unknown african and asian locations (khadaroo & seetanah, 2008). it should be the serious concern of nepal government also to ensure the safety and security of tourists in tourist destinations. considering this fact, nepal government has formed the 'tourist police' to provide the security of tourists in tourist destinations. besides that, there is need to promote the rural tourism by improving the infrastructure development of appropriate tourist destination. there are many places located in rural society which are appropriate for the tourist destination so need to identify the location for further process of planning, implementation and dissemination of tourist destination. the main aim of this study is to develop the community oriented rural tourism development model for the promotion of rural tourism of nepal. 2. material & method the study was based on the qualitative design to develop the model. it has adopted the constructive approach to generate the ideas from the in-depth interview with tourism experts, tourism related business person, home-stay operators of ghalegaun of lamjung district, pathra of tanahu district, and amaltari of nawalparasi district. semistructured interview was taken with the respondents to know their opinion regarding the appropriate technique to promote the rural tourism. judgmental sampling technique was used to select the respondents. the respondents shared their experience and ideas which become important to develop the model. the collected data was transcribed on the basis of theme of study. thematic analysis of qualitative data supported to develop the model. 3. result & discussion several previous literatures have elaborated important theoretical tourism development models. major tourism development theories and models are based on the evolutionary approach on the tourism development and the factors shaping it; i.e., different factors lead to the successful development of tourism in rural areas in the different stages of development. these theories are aiming to explain the development of tourism which can be adapted to the rural tourism development and analysis. there are several important tourism development theories that analyze the evolution of the tourism, which is based on the travel life-cycle (butler & miossec, 1993; butler, 1980). these theories describe the development of tourism in a cyclical pattern. according to these theories, the changes in the tourism market are happening not due to the economic, social, or physical reasons, but because of the changing nature of the tourism market and the changing tourists' motivation (streimikiene & bilan, 2015, p. 23). www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 3 according to george, mair and reid (2009), in order to assess rural tourism development model, one should first determine which factors have motivated the local community to develop rural tourism. these reasons are different in different areas. some motives of tourism development are related to the economic problems and the necessity to find new business niches, while in other areas the main reasons of the development of rural tourism are based on the available motives, where tourism supply and demand factors play an important role in rural tourism development. the rural tourism development model should reflect the multiple levels (geels, 2004; geels, 2002) and explain the economic transformation of the processes that take place in different levels of interaction: a niche (micro level), regimes (meso level), and landscape (macro level). two different areas can specialize in the provision of the same services but have a completely different morphology (mountains or plains) and apply different rural regimes (coenen & truffer, 2012). rural regime means coordination between all rural actors and stakeholders in order to ensure the harmonious development of rural area (randelli, romei, & tortora, 2012). therefore, it is necessary to have a better theoretical understanding of the key factors that determine the development of rural tourism in rural areas and the interaction between these factors. this makes it possible to reveal the reasons of disparities in rural tourism development in rural areas (roberts & hall, 2001). on the fact of theoretical understanding of rural development model, the study has proposed the community orientedrural tourism development model (cortdm). this model is designed on the basis of result of primary data collected by the study. the conceptual design of this model is as given in figure 1. figure 1: community oriented rural tourism development model (co-rtdm) the model of rural development portrayed in figure 1 shows the seven steps of development as follows: first stage: in the first step, it talks about the identification of tourist destinations. during the selection of tourist destinations, certain typical characteristics should be considered on the basis of natural beauty, culture of identification of tourist destination destinations need assessment & planning infrastructure development implementation monitoring of tqm regular improvement identify the tourist destinations on the basis of natural beauty, culture, ancient history, heritage …etc. need to assess the available resources; capacity and further requirement as tourist destination, transportation, electricity, communication, drinking water, health and safety should be pre-requisites of development compliance of standard of home-stay, tqm, security, hygiene & sanitation, local (organic) food, cultural promotion, regular monitoring from tourism association, tourism board and nepal government to check total quality management regular improvement on service quality on the basis of monitoring and feedbacks of concerned authorities rural development promotion and mobilization of community resources with the involvement of local stakeholders for the rural development www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 4 surrounding community, historical importance, religion etc which can be memorable story for the visitors. second stage: in the second phase, there should be need assessment of identified tourist destination. capacity and vulnerability should be assessed. available natural resources, public participation, involvement of stakeholders, presence of governmental and non-governmental organizations, potential investors for tourism development and possibility of other development along with tourism should be assessed. then, need to prepare the development plan with close consultation of tourism experts. third stage: basic infrastructure should be developed as pre-requisites of rural tourism development. transportation along with easy road access, electricity, communication, drinking water, basic health facility …etc should be developed. infrastructure can support to ensure the basic quality of services. fourth stage: it is the most important stage of tourism development. this is the implementation stage so that the home-stay operators should compliance the basic standard of home-stay and other tourist focused hotel should also follow the related standard/guidelines. total quality management (tqm) should be followed by security of tourists. service providers should be aware on the security situation and provision and tourists should be made aware. besides that, food quality should be organic, hygienic and sanitation should be fully maintained, respective behavior should be done with tourists, reasonable price with quality service. tourism sectors should promote the typical culture also. fifth stage: monitoring of service quality sensitize the service providers on their service quality. the study found that there is no provision of hiring the external expert to check the service quality of hotel or home-stay by the operator of hotel or home-stay. they have internal assessment system. the monitoring from government level or from tourism business related association or from tourism board found very weak so it should be strengthen and need to check the total quality management-tqm against the basic standard of home-stay or other services. monitoring team should have technical skill to provide the constructive feedback to correct the lacking. monitoring should also encourage the service providers to provide the best service quality. sixth stage: this is the stage of regular improvement in service quality. there is no stage of perfection or saturation. this is the time of technology; every second, there may be new findings and products in the market. everything need some improvement and change as the need of market so tourism sectors should regularly improve their quality on the basis of feedback of monitoring team, tourist or from their own past experiences. public hearing can be done to get the feedback for the improvement. seventh stage: in the final stage of the model, rural tourism should focus on the development of rural community. tourism is not related with the development of individual household but it contributes in the development of whole society with the active mobilization of local resources. other potential business sectors should be promoted side by side to develop the community. the result of this study found not so satisfactory change in development of social activities; health, education and social life-style. it is the corporate social responsibility (csr) of tourism sectors to promote the other opportunity of rural community with the active public participation. the study was based on the quantitative design following the philosophy of post-positivist. post-positivist see the critical reality of finding of study so to ensure the reliability to finding of quantitative analysis, some qualitative discussion was also held. the study had conducted interview with home-stay operators during the data collection in the field and some relevant story are analyzed to support the findings of the survey. the case of each district showed the impact of home-stay to change the socio-economic status of home-stay operators. the idea of in-depth interview supported to develop the model of tourism development. the home-stay operators also realized the need of further improvement of home-stay to increase the number of tourists. the study discussed with mr. jogeshwor tharu, permanent resident of amaltari, nawalparasi who was doing home-stay business since 2013 and was supported by his family members. before starting this business, he worked as tourist guide in chitwan national park. around 5 years he worked there and got a tremendous knowledge of tourism. then, gradually, the concept of home-stay came in their community also and his neighbours started home-stay which inspired him to be self-employed. as their suggestions, he also started home-stay. he had no economic problem to start home-stay because he had saved some money from his past job so he renovated his old house and decorated with new furniture. he visited tourism board to know some basic requirements of home-stay and got idea of basic standard of home-stay. he said that he properly followed the basic standard during the construction phase and continuously following these standards. then he was earning monthly around nrs. 30000/ which was sufficient to manage his household expenditures.besides the benefits of home-stay, he also shared that there were challenges to run the home-stay. he said that the security of tourists in the tourist destination was the major problem and frequent road strike from political parties and inadequate facilities of electricity were also creating problem to increase the size of tourists. so he requested to the concerned authority and nepal government to support us by providing the security to the tourists and need to develop the basic infrastructure facilities in the www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 5 tourist destinations to extend their service in future also. 4. conclusion there are different theoretical aspects of tourism development in different context. many previous theories describe the development of tourism in a cyclical pattern. because of the changing nature of the tourism market and the changing tourists' motivation affect the changes in the tourism market. but there are important role of economic, social, or physical factors also to promote the rural tourism. in the context of nepal, geographical constraint, lack of access of road, electricity and communication are the challenges to promote the rural tourism. considering these basic requirement, the study has developed the community oriented rural tourism development model (co-rtdm) having with seven stages of development. first stage talks about the identification of appropriate tourist destination, second stage talks about the need assessment and planning, third stage talks about the infrastructure development, fourth stage talks about the implementation, fifth stage talks about the monitoring of total quality management, sixth stage talks about the regular improvement in service and facilities on the basis of monitoring of total quality management and in seventh stage, it will ensure the rural development from the contribution of rural tourism development. the study has develop the model so further researcher or related stakeholders can test the effectiveness of this model. references butler, r. 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(2015). review of rural tourism development theories. transformations in business & economics , 14 (2 (35), 21-34. copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. this is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) contents american economic & social review vol. 1, no. 1; 2017 published by centre for research on islamic banking & finance and business 50 the role of contemporary islamic movement towards social and political changes of modernity ibrahim suleiman1 1department of political science, bauchi state university, gadau, nigeria correspondence: ibrahim suleiman, department of political science, bauchi state university, gadau, nigeria, tel: +2348060287718, e-mail: isuleiman@basug.edu.ng received: september 28, 2017 accepted: september 30, 2017 online published: october 7, 2017 abstract this paper studies the role of contemporary islamic movements towards social and political changes of the 21st century. contemporary islamic movements is a modern phenomenon; it is rooted in the historically and spatially recurring cyclical phenomena of "reform" (islah) and "renewal" (tajdid) which provide the models and symbols that link modernity to authentic elements of islamic teachings. the study employs secondary source as a method of data collection. based on these past rejuvenations, contemporary islamic scholars are interacts with modern cultural, social, political and religious circumstances. while emphasizing the unitarian and universalistic character of islam, it is also coloured by local variations. some observers see islamic movement as part of a trend in contemporary islam toward a more orthodox and doctrinally homogeneous type of religion based on the sacred source-texts. this trend views local expressions of islam as deviations from orthodoxy and seeks to suppress them. modern means of communication have accelerated this process by opening up the periphery to the penetration of the centralizing forces. in this view, islamic movement is more radical wing of the wider movement which also includes madrasah based traditional groups and sufi type reform movements. keywords: islamic movement, social and political changes, orthodox and doctrinally homogeneous. 1. introduction contemporary islamic movements in the 19th and 20th century is part of a wider religious resurgence extensive across the muslim world. contemporary islamic movements is a modern phenomenon; it is rooted in the historically and spatially recurring cyclical phenomena of "reform" (islah) and "renewal" (tajdid) which provide the models and symbols that link modernity to authentic elements of islamic teachings. based on these past renewals, contemporary islamic movements are interacts with modern cultural, social, political and religious circumstances. while stressing the unitarian and universalistic character of islam, it is also coloured by local variations. some observers see islamic movement as part of a trend in contemporary islam toward a more orthodox and doctrinally homogeneous type of religion based on the sacred source-texts. this trend views local expressions of islam as deviations from orthodoxy and seeks to suppress them. modern means of communication have accelerated this process by opening up the periphery to the penetration of the centralizing the role of contemporary islamic movement towards social and political changes of modernity ibrahim suleiman 51 forces. in this view, islamic movement is more radical wing of the wider movement which also includes madrasah based traditional groups and sufi type reform movements (tibi, 2000). contemporary islamic movement is an umbrella term for a wide variety of movements and discourse committed to islam as a comprehensive total way of life and as a viable alternative to western secular ideologies. most of them are united in their goal of the islamization of the social and political system of their societies, states, and ultimately of the whole muslim world, yet there is a great diversity among them arising from the variety of local circumstances in which they emerged and operates. the goal of islamic movement can be summarized as the re-establishment of a revived and authentic "true" islam and its implementation in all areas of life. the best-known ideologue of the revivalists muslim brotherhood in egypt, sayyid qutb, defined the goal of revivalist as: “… the restoration of islamic life in an islamic society governed by the islamic creed and the islamic conception as well as by the islamic shari‟ah and the islamic system (nizam)” (tibi, 2000). the emergence of islamic movement was due to the penetration of western capitalist modernity into all aspects of muslim societies from arab world to southeast asia, a significant number of muslim intellectuals began to write down the general outlines of a new intellectual project that is often referred to as “islamic modernism.” in the arab world, iran and the late ottoman period was represented by such personalities as jamaluddeen al-afghani, muhammad abdu, muhammad rashid rida, bediuzzaman, and said nursi, in the early phase and a host of other religious scholars and thinkers who were intent on finding a reconciliation between their grand islamic tradition and the scientific and philosophical achievements of capitalist modernity. in south asia, the project of islamic modernism was represented by such thinkers and activists as sayyid ahmad khan, amir ali, mawlana abu al-kalam azad, and others. in southeast asia, most notably in indonesia, the project of islamic modernism was represented by the muhammadiyyah organization and its founder, muhammad dahlan (abu-rabi, 2006). the major features of contemporary islamic movement were as follows: (i) the revival of rational elements in the islamic tradition, (ii) finding islamic solutions to the challenges of the western domination, (iii) embracing the philosophical and scientific features of modernity, (iv) constructing new academic and religious institutions to meet the challenges of modernity, (v) the revival of kalam science, and (vi) the revival of islamic languages and focus on foreign languages. islamic modernism can be said to be composed of two major features at the beginning of the twentieth century: (i) in the first place it was deeply concerned with the foreign occupation and its intellectual and educational design aimed at eradicating foreign control. this was the case with the muhammadiyyah; (ii) on the other hand; it saw the salvation of muslims as being united with the foreign presence, as can be seen in the movement represented by khan in india at the end of the nineteenth century. however, the logical outcome of both sides islamic modernism was to lay down the blueprint for an independent homeland for muslims in the middle east, southeast asia, and south asia (ibid). moreover, the rise of nationalism in different parts of the muslim world in the latter part of the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, islamic modernism paved the way for the foundation of the nation-state in the modern muslim world. in indonesia, for example, islamic modernism combined with nationalism and the rise of other islamist parties to power led directly to the creation of modern indonesia. the same combination of factors can be seen in the case of pakistan. independence, national struggle, and the creation of modern institutions has been the landmark of contemporary islamic thought. in the case of the muslims of south asia, the partition of india and pakistan has been a watershed in both contemporary islamic intellectual and indian intellectual histories. it the role of contemporary islamic movement towards social and political changes of modernity ibrahim suleiman 52 is quite impossible to understand the huge issues hampering contemporary islamic thought in south asia without understanding this pivotal historical event and its intellectual, religious, social, political, and economic consequences and realities (ibid). 2. contextual historical facts of contemporary islamic movements many people recognize the complexity and multiplicity of the causes that gave rise to contemporary islamic movement; some are of the opinion that colonialism and modernization are the major causes of the resurgence. while others thinks about many factors which are as follows: 2.1 reaction to colonialism and western domination colonialism brings about the western cultural dominance which imposed secularization, dependence, and a division of life into separate secular and religious spheres. the famous indian islamic thinker muhammad iqbal (1877-1938) vividly expressed the commonly held view of the "insensitive multi-layered western civilization" in its varied manifestations of capitalism, communism, secularism, and liberalism, challenging islam of its inherent vitality. in sharp contrast to the miserable present, he recreated the memories of islam‟s past glorious golden age. these two themes of anti-westernism and reminiscence for the glorious past are characteristic of most contemporary islamic movements. moreover, the movement provide "cultural authenticity, spiritual guidance, and practical help to those experiencing extreme frustration in their societies, and argues that these movements are not a passing phenomenon they are deeply rooted in islamic history and culture and nurtured by the deep crisis in contemporary muslim states. also during the colonial period islam as a political ideology was back staged as western ideologies penetrated society. the failure of these western ideologies to deliver following independence strengthened the islamic movements with their call for a return to islam as an authentic alternative political ideology. president khatami of iran sounds a less hostile note while admitting that muslims have lost their once dominant position in world history because of the political, intellectual, and technological ascendancy of the west. he states that "it is a fact that the west has given humankind many achievements, and also brought it many problems and difficulties". the problems faced by muslims are common to third world societies, and have been aggravated because while their private and social lives have been strongly influenced by the west, their culture belongs to another era. the crisis in non-western peoples and countries is due to the fact that the culture which rules our lives or part of it is inconsistent with the civilization which more or less forms the basis of our everyday lives. this contradiction, which the west suffers from less, is the source of the serious crisis in the lives of most of us non-westerners (enayat, 1982). 2.2 response to devastating change of modernity islamic movement emerged as a response to western induced modern social and cultural changes that "threaten to dilute islamic identity through the propagation of un-islamic elements". esposito, (1990) claims that the positive benefits of modernization benefited only a few, while the majority felt mainly its negative fallout rural migration and rapid urbanization, the breakdown of traditional family values, and a general climate of disillusionment and misery. deukmejian, (1985) also stresses the negative social and economic effects of modernization which included the population explosion, the breakdown of traditional religious and social values, high unemployment, and the sharp inequalities in wealth distribution. these overwhelmingly rapid economic, social and cultural changes resulted in an acute sense of dislocation, identity loss, alienation and anomie (ibid). the role of contemporary islamic movement towards social and political changes of modernity ibrahim suleiman 53 2.3 reaction to failed islamic liberalism contemporary islamic movement also came as a reaction to the failures of islamic liberalism in the 19th and 20th centuries, as well as to the failures of nationalism and socialism after independence. islamists compete both with the modernists, who accept a broad interpretation of scripture and adopt some western values, and with the secularist-liberals who argue for a democratic, pluralist state on the western model. islamists reject these worldviews and seek a return to the original sources of islam, whilst claiming the right to re-interpret them (ijtihad) and reapply them to contemporary contexts (ibid). 2.4 crisis of legitimacy in secular nation-states and regimes another cause is the persistent crisis expressed by the weak legitimacy of the very idea of the nation-state as well as of the existing secular regimes. this crisis is evident in the pervasiveness of autocratic regimes and in the continuing segmentation of society along tribal, ethnic, and religious lines. the political, social, and economic failures of the secular state is seen as an important contributor to the rise of islamic movement as a mass-based response demanding radical change. islamists tend to blame the modern secular nation-state and its westernized elites for the entire problem faced by the society (ibid). 2.5 direct political catalysts the arab defeat in the 1967 war against israel, the secession of bangladesh from pakistan in 1971, the lebanese civil war in the mid-1970s, and the soviet invasion of afghanistan in 1979 were catalysts in the spread of islamic movement especially in the 20th century. they added to the sense of backwardness, humiliation, impotence, and loss of self-esteem, with the resulting hostility aimed against local regimes that had failed to respond to the need of their societies, as well as against the superpowers and the west in general. muslims of all classes and ages turned to fundamentalist islam for a solution (ibid). 2.6 nineteenth and twentieth century contemporary islamic thinkers the reformers searched for a solution to the political and religious crisis caused by western imperialism, and for an answer to the question of what had gone wrong with muslim society. against the secularists who blamed traditional islam for the decline, and advocated the separation of religion from the state on the western model; and the conservatives who advocated a rejection of the west, non-co-operation with the new rulers, and an isolationist withdrawal into traditional religion; the reformers offered an alternative both to westernized secular adaptation and to conservative rejectionist. they initiated a process of internal self-criticism, of redefining islam, and proving its relevance to the new context by a synthesis of islamic and modern concepts. they instilled in muslims a pride in their past glory, reviving their shattered sense of identity and their confidence. they also emphasized the progressive and rational character of islam that enabled it to integrate modern culture and accommodate change. the reformers rejected common law, popular sufipractices, as well as the classical innovations of the ulamaand the four legal schools madhahib((zeenath, 2005). 2.6.1 jamal al-din al-afghani (1839-1897) was a political activist who aroused muslims to resist imperialism, revive their lost glory, and liberate their states from colonial rule by uniting the ummah (pan-islamism), reforming a decadent and superstitious islam that had capitulated to western influences, and by utilizing western science and philosophy. he tried to bridge the gap between modern secularists and religious traditionalists, stressing that reason had been integral to early and classical islam and that islamic essentials are compatible with science. islam is a comprehensive way of life encompassing the societal and political as well as the personal spheres. it is a dynamic and progressive religion of reason and science capable of responding to modern contexts. islam is the real source of the ummah‟s strength and islamic identity and solidarity must be the role of contemporary islamic movement towards social and political changes of modernity ibrahim suleiman 54 vigorously restated. the stagnation of islam must be rejected, and the gates of ijtihad reopened so as to break the ulama‟s monopoly on religion and to formulate new responses to changing circumstances based on the original source (harris, 1964). 2.6.2 muhammad abduh,(1849-1905) who became rector of al-azhar and chief sharia judge (mufti) of egypt, advocated reform by a return to the pure sources. he saw the causes of stagnation in muslim society as lying in un-islamic practices and superstitions, fatalism, and rigid scholasticism (taqlid); the corruption of the „ulama‟ and their subservience to the political leadership, as well as their inability to distinguish between the unchanging core of islam and its external layer which was open to change. he stressed the unity of god(tawhid) as the foundation of islam‟s integrated worldview, saw no conflict between islam and modernity, and stressed that religion and reason were not contradictory, but complemented each other as the two sources of islam. indeed, islam had early on bestowed rationality to the west but had then neglected it. abduh wanted to reform society through discovering the real intent of islam‟s unchanging fundamental principles and then implementing them in educational and social reforms, as well as through selectively appropriating aspects of the west not contrary to islam (ibid). 2.6.3 muhammad rashid rida, (1865-1935) continued with afghani‟s and abduh‟s call for a reinterpretation of islam and the development of a modern islamic legal system. however he gradually became more critical of the west and its growing cultural impact on egypt, and more sympathetic to wahhabism. he too rejected the blind acceptance of medieval formulations of law, and wanted to regenerate islam by going back to the model of the pious ancestors (salaf) muhammad, his companions, and the (khulafa-urrashidun) caliphs which included the practice of a pure and rational islam free from superstition, as well as a just and prosperous islamic society and state. islam was self-sufficient and comprehensive and had no need to imitate the west, but must return to its original sources. he stressed that full implementation of islamic law required the existence of a truly islamic government which could only be a restored caliphate. this government would function through compulsory consultation (shura) between the ruler and the representatives of the community, the "people who lose and bind" (ahl al-hall wal-„aqd)(ibid). 2.6.4 hassan al-banna (1906-1949) banna combined a drive to reform islam along salafilines with efforts to practically upgrade the condition of the deprived masses by mutual-aid and self-help. he demanded muslims go back to the practice of the early normative period of islam, and claimed that only the quran and the best attested hadith should be the sources of shari‟ah. hassan al-banna saw islam as an integrated, self-sufficient, and comprehensive social and political system based on tawhid the onness of allah which must be implemented in an islamic state there could be no separation between state and religion. it was the implementation of shari‟ah that made a government truly islamic, so this implementation was a primary goal of the movement. the constitution of the islamic state was the qur‟an, and its government was to operate through consultation (shura)(adam, 1933). 2.6.5 sayyid qutb (1906-1966):egyptian thinker an activist, a renowned islamic scholar was born in asyut upper egypt on 9th october 1906. his family live in the village of mosha in the province of asyut, his sixth grandfather was originated from india alfaqir abdullah. sayyid father, qutb ibrahim was a kind of generous and benevolent person. he was a religious pious and politically conscious man. sayyid mother held from respectable family in the village. she had great love for islam, the qur‟an and sunna of the prophet (saw). she instilled these attributes in the minds of sayyid. her devotion to qur‟anic recitation and charity was remarkable. his education, sayyid qutb began his education with his parents. when he reached the aged of 6 joined primary the role of contemporary islamic movement towards social and political changes of modernity ibrahim suleiman 55 school where he memorised the qur‟an in 3 years. sayyid loved reading books. the principle of the school used to lend him two books in a week which he finished it and make his own copy before he return the books. in 1920 he travelled to cairo for further education and he joined darul-ulum and he became a prolific writer he wrote many books during his life time such as mile stone, social justice in islam, in the shade of the qur‟an, his prominent (tafsir fi zilal al-qur‟an). after finishing school started his career as a class room teacher, in the year 1940, he was asked to joined ministry of education and later he was made inspector of primary school in 1944. in november 1948, he was sent to america to study educational system of american universities, institutions, and colleges. after two years he returned back in 1950, and made a proposal to the government seeking for the reformation of educational system in egypt. however, the government did not response to his request due to this he felt frustrated and resigned his post. and one year after his resignation the government implemented his reform. in july, 1952, there was a military coup led by jamal abdel-nasir in egypt where by the monarch was overthrown. the muslim brotherhood supported that coup; sayyid qutb played a significant role in supporting that coup with the intension to established shariah in accordance with qur‟an and sunna. in the early stage of the revolution he was regarded as the mentor and guider of the revolution. in many occasion he was invited to deliver a talks on national issues and aspects of islam, but he was vocal and transparent he never compromised his ideas and principles. moreover, he was totally rejected the idea of socialist and nationalist movement which he felt that they are against islamic shariah in egypt. this is the genesis of disagreement between him and the president jamal abdel nasir. he continues with his writing books and in 1952, started writing his important book in the shade of qur‟an which he completed when he was in prison. sayyid qutb was jailed 3 times for different allegations. in a nutshell, in 1965, the court pronounced a verdict on sayyid qutb and other members of muslim brotherhood and he was sentenced to death together with the two members, while the rest of 25 life imprisonment. in reaction to the verdict sayyid qutb said that “praise be to allah! i have worked 15 years to gain this shahada.” and on 29th august 1966 sayyid qutb and two others were hanged (harris, 1964). 2.6.5.1 his political thought sayyid qutb consider both capitalism and communism as the worst ideologies and enemy of mankind. he never supported man made ideologies in his life. he is against the idea of nationalism because he felt that it the process of weakening muslims to accept defeat and sometime fought each other. according to him all ideologies and movement that are originated from the so-called western philosophy of eighteen century had lost their vitality. he contended that the ideology of capitalism is one of the enemies of mankind, because gradually exploited the people through various stages and means. also he criticised communism due to its treatment of the people as robots. he condemned communism for not providing freedom and liberty to the people to exercise their free will of choosing any way of life or religion. sayyid qutb divided the word into three. the western bloc, the eastern bloc, and the neutral, he viewed that both western and eastern blocs competed with each other to dominate the whole world, while the third bloc was forced to remain valueless and insignificant in all aspects. he is totally against the idea of non-alignment because he argued that is the idea that represents artificiality (ibid).  islamic shariah after the coup of 1952, he insisted for the implementation of islamic shariah with justice and accountability, but jamal abdel-nasir refused and instead advocated for socialism and nationalism hence sayyid qutb withdraw his the role of contemporary islamic movement towards social and political changes of modernity ibrahim suleiman 56 support and failed to compromised with the government. sayyid qutb asserted that the only means that can brings about sanity and progress to the ummah must be through the implementation of islamic law based on qur‟an and sunna and not man-made ideologies.  the muslim bloc sayyid qutb call on the muslim nation to unite themselves as a third force namely muslim bloc under the banner of islam. he believed that muslim bloc would provide all necessities and needs which are essential for mankind with rational approach that give good shape of life. this bloc would believe in real social justice, freedom and all kinds of benefits and facilities for every individual. he says that it will maintain the balance between the two opposing structures capitalism and communism.  concept of society sayyid qutb divided the concept of society into two compartments, the islamic society and jahiliyya society, which he means civilised society and backward society. according to him an islamic society is the civilised society that recognised the laws of allah, the shariah as the laws of the land. islamic society asserts the unity of allah and its sincere observance both in words and deeds. it did not accept any sovereignty of man and only accept absolute sovereignty of allah. on the other hand, the jahiliyya society is the backward society that is antithetical to islam as a complete ways of life. islam neither goes along with it nor those it agree with its doctrines and character. the jahiliyya society encourages the worship of man by man domination of one power over the other for the sake of power, ideologies, or material ends.  sayyid qutb on education sayyid qutb was totally against the system of education which is given under the patronage or supervision of the jews, christians, and communists which brain wash young muslims. he maintained that muslim children should not obtained education on islam from jews, christians, and orientalists. he asserted that the so-called modern education as advocated by missionaries in missionary schools was part of the conspiracy to divorce islam from the muslims; he quoted the word of samuel zwemer “our mission is to have muslim leave islam and make them subservient to our teachings, our influence, and our ideas…….everyone who graduates from these schools abandon islam in actuality if not in name.” therefore, these are some of the brief ideas of sayyid qutb to the contemporary islamic movement (ibid). 2.6.6 abu a’la al-mawdudi a great islamic thinker, philosopher, reformer, an activist founder of jama‟at islami in india he was born in india on 25th september, 1903. he was born from a very famous and religious family. he was a strong believer with qur‟an and sunnah. mawdudi was totally against western democracy in the early stage. he started his early education from his parent same like qutb he developed interest in languages, especially arabic, he mastered qur‟an and hadith also learned mathematics and science subjects. his started his career as a journalist, and joined many islamic movements before forming his organization. in 1941 mawdudi formed islamic movement jama‟at islami in lahore indian sub-continent and after the petition of india, mawdudi migrated to pakistan and developed in writing books, journals, and pamphlets. in the early stage the movement was based on tajdid (reform) not politics. however, when times goes on jama‟at islami turned to political party and participated fully in political arena (ahmad, 1967). 2.6.6.1 allama mawdudi’s political thought mawdudi‟s political system was constituted based on four basic principles; the first principle of mawdudi‟s thought, was a concrete comprehensive presentation of islam as a complete way of life, which encompasses all aspects of life, individuals, groups, and it also deals with political, economic, and social aspects. the second the role of contemporary islamic movement towards social and political changes of modernity ibrahim suleiman 57 principle is that the purpose of the meaning of life is nothing but to serve or worship allah (s.w.t). in the third principle mawdudi never perceived islam as the static religion, to him islam is a complete and dynamic whenever there is problem which were not found in qur‟an and sunna he use ijtihad to find the solution of the problem. the fourth principle argued that all the injustice, chaos and problems are due to the domination of man by man.  the concept of islamic state and shariah according to him by islamic state he never means that the state should comprised only muslims, but rather the islamic state should be based on islamic principles of shariah, and non-muslim should be given their rights and privileges. he profound the principle of islamic state, according to him the principles of islamic state was based on three creeds tawheed, risalah, and khilafah. the second principle was the purpose of an islamic state and its characteristic which he argued should be based on sovereignty, khilafah, and shariah. the third principle was the directive principles of state policy (islamic manifesto) (ibid).  mawdudi’s organs of government according to him the organs of government should be divided into three as follows: shura/parliament had the responsibility of making laws based on qur‟an and sunna it must consist people who are knowledgeable ahl al-hall wal „aqad. another organ is amara/executive had the responsibility of execution or implementation of law based on islamic principles and they should secure directives from allah (s.w.t) and rules according to qur‟an and sunna. the last organ of government in mawdudi‟s thought was qada/judiciary that had the responsibility of interpreting the law, this consist of judges which they must exercise their function in line with qur‟an and sunna. they have to follow what was revealed by allah (s.w.t). mawdudi accepted the clear separation of power between these three organs; each organ must be independent and answerable to the chief of the executive who is the head of state and he too is answerable to allah.  citizenship in an islamic state mawdudi identified two types of citizenship in an islamic state; the muslims and the non-muslims (ahlul dhimmis). he argued that the muslim citizens must perform all the socio-political directives of the state. they are vested with many obligations and sacrifices in order to defence the state. they enjoy the rights of choosing the head of state, membership of law making bodies, and appointment of the key position in an islamic state. whereas, the non-muslims enjoy civil liberties and protection with the condition of paying the tax (jizya) and within the non-muslim women, children, elderly and disable people were exempted for paying the tax (ibid). 3. conclusion at the end of the 19th and 20th century islamic movements have become very popular within the muslim society all over the world, led by these islamic educated elites. the main aimed of these movements was the implementation of islamic oriented society. however, the establishment of an islamic system does necessitate the creation of an islamic state, and the mainstreams of islamic movements have become major actors within the system, while the violent radicals continue to confront the state. the moderates demand participation as equals in the democratic process, while the extremists threaten violence and revolution. references abu-rabi, i .(2004). contemporary arab thought: studies in post-1967 arab intellectual history: london pluto press adam, c. (1933). islam and modernity in egypt, london: oxford university press. ahmad, a. (1967). islamic modernism in india and pakistan 1857-1965, london: oxford the role of contemporary islamic movement towards social and political changes of modernity ibrahim suleiman 58 university press. deukmejian, r. h. (1985). islam in revolution: fundamentalism in the arab world. syracuse, n. y: syracuse university press. enayat, h. (1982). modern islamic political thought, london: macmillan press. espositor, j. l. (1990). the iranian revolution:its global impact.miami. international university press. harris, c. (1964). nationalism and revolution. egypt. tibi, b. (2000). the challenge of fundamentalism; political islam and the new world disorder, updated edition, berkeley. zeenath, k. (2005). comtemporary islamic political thought: a study of eleven thinkers. kuala lumpur, malaysia: ampang press sdn bhd. copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. american economic & social review; vol. 4, no. 1; 2018 issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 impact factor: 3.9 published by centre for research on islamic banking & finance and business, usa 1 operations of street food vendors and their impact on sustainable life in rural nigeria richardson kojo edeme phd senior lecturer department of economics, university of nigeria, nsukka enugu state, nigeria e-mail: richard.edeme@unn.edu.ng tel: +2348035813888 nkalu, c. nkalu (corresponding author) lecturer department of economics, university of nigeria, nsukka enugu state, nigeria e-mail(s): nelson.nkalu@unn.edu.ng or nkaluconnection@gmail.com phone: +2348066884155 received: november 8, 2018 accepted: november 11, 2018 online published: november 17, 2018 abstract in recent times, street food vending has become source of livelihood to some urban dwellers and has offered economic benefits to vendors and nutritious foods for the urban dwellers, especially in developing countries. the aim of this study is to investigate the operations and existence of street food vending in nsukka urban area and examine its effects on sustainable life.. demographic profiles of vendors, their food safety knowledge, constraints in proper handling practices, the emergence of street food vending, its socioeconomic impact, nature and problems facing street food vendors and their impact on sustainable life were assessed using a closed ended questionnaire. it was found that street food vendors have existed in nsukka urban area overtime and their emergence was consequent upon the quest for a better life. also, street food vending has impacted positively on sustainable life in the area through being a source of employment and provision of essential services to the dwellers. keywords: street food vendors, sustainable life, urban area, nigeria. 1. introduction over time, the sound performance of most developed economies has been attributed to the existence of a vibrant informal sector. the informal sector comprises of some elements such as street retailers, hair salons, mechanic shops, car wash shops, tailor and seamstress shops, the food vendors amongst others. at the apex of these informal sectors lies one of the main stabilizer, street vending. the immense contribution of street food vendors to the growth of the informal sector and the economy at large is not surprising, given the increasing need for highly placed consumer goods which is consequent upon the increasing growth of the world’s population, especially in the developing countries (mcroman, 2007). in asia, street food vending has been fundamental part of its culinary culture for centuries and they are still seen in great numbers around massive markets in every major city from shanghai to hanoi (hodge, 2014). in nigeria and nsukka urban in particular, street food vending dates back to the mailto:richard.edeme@unn.edu.ng mailto:nelson.nkalu@unn.edu.ng mailto:nkaluconnection@gmail.com www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 4, no. 1; 2018 2 colonial era, during the period of trade-by-barter when farmers and other individuals move from house to house in search of whom to exchange their farm produce with. the food and agricultural organization (fao) of the united nations defines street foods as ready-to-eat foods and beverages prepared and/or sold by vendors and hawkers especially in streets and other similar public places (fao report, 1989). the central characteristic of street foods in this definition is location, namely that they are sold on the street. there are three additional distinguishing characteristics of street foods, these are: (i) food prepared in small or cottage-scale factories and brought to the street food stall for sale; (ii) food prepared at the home of the vendor and brought to the street food stall for sale; and (iii) food prepared and sold at the street food stall. according to escalante de cruz (2005), there are three main categories of street food vendors, namely ‘mobile’ vendors, ‘semimobile’ vendors, who may be stationary or move from one site to another and ‘stationary’ vendors who sell their food at the same site each day. though studies like betsey (2010) and hodge (2014) have argued that street food vendors contribute to the development of the informal sector and the economy at large through their linkages with the formal sector, creation of jobs and generation of revenue to local governments with particular reference to nsukka local government area, thereby contributing to sustainable life through addition of vibrancy to urban life, others argue that some of these street food vendors do more harm to sustainable life than they help to improve it because they harbor potentially hazardous food held at unsafe temperatures, lack proper equipment to maintain food at the required temperatures, expose their food to unsanitary conditions including unclean food equipment, exhibit inadequate protection of food and make use of unapproved food equipment. as in many developing countries, there is need for a policy decision to allow people to earn their living from street food vending in areas under their jurisdiction. before such a decision can be taken, however, three questions should be considered. first of all, do the activities of these vendors pose a health threat or not? secondly, what are the opinions of the customers of these street food vendors? and thirdly, is the income earned by the street vendor the main source of their household’s income or is it an additional income? providing answers to these questions form the basis of this study. 2. review of literature in 2011, a study on the effectiveness of food safety training program to street food vendors was conducted by a group of researchers of the university of public health yangon, myanmar. they examined the comparative study of vendors’ knowledge, attitude and practice (k, a, p) scores before and after the food safety training intervention. in the post intervention, the improvement of knowledge, attitude scores found higher; however no significant improvement in practice was found (maung et.al, 2012).this study concluded that the food safety training program improved food safety knowledge and attitude only. therefore, it suggested that health educations as well as supportive measures such as financial assistance, continuous monitoring, etc. are necessary to improve the vendors’ food safety practices and personal hygiene. in managing street foods business, authority concerned may choose one of the following governance steps such as (1) repression or eviction for hawkers’ encroachment on the crowded streets-side (2) temporary approval within the limited timeframe (with or without registration fees, within or without zoning area) and (3) the official recognition of the street foods existence and the protecting the selling right of hawkers (at public place) along with the corrective rules to be abided by vendors. rane (2011) mentioned that malaysia, philippines and india are the three countries which have regulations for protecting street vendors. india and thailand have developed hygienic practices for street vendors so as to upgrade hygiene and quality of street foods (dawson, 1996). a range of personal, social, and environmental factors influence food handlers practices, and thus these factors need to be addressed in order to change food handlers’ behavior (gul, 2012). a year after an faosupported street foods quality improvement campaign, food vendors in one area of bangkok announced that sales were up 20 percent (fao, 2002).it shows the necessity to assist the improvement of street foods quality, from controlling perspective. authority must elucidate a policy aimed at assisting, controlling and maintaining the street food sector (who, 1997) it can be achieved through better communication with vendors. sustainability means capacity to maintain some entity, outcome, or process over time. theories of sustainability attempt to prioritize and integrate social responses to environmental and cultural problems. in its increasingly common use, the concept of sustainability frames the ways in which environmental problems jeopardize the conditions of healthy economic, ecological, and social systems. sustainability illuminates the mutual effects between environmental degradation caused by human activities and the perils to human systems presented by global environmental problems. the concept of sustainability thus raises a starkly basic question: can human activity successfully maintain itself and its goals without exhausting the resources on which it depends? asking that question directs attention toward the planetary impact of human activity and its durability over time. the broad concept of sustainability has caught the attention of policy makers and citizens of the world. much of what the term means today is considerably different from what it conveyed a decade ago. as the broad concept of sustainability has evolved, so too have several of its derivatives: sustainable communities, livable communities, and sustainable cities. www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 4, no. 1; 2018 3 as beatley and manning (1997) point out, “there is a general sense that sustainability is a good thing (and that being unsustainable is a bad thing), but will we know it when we see it?” as a matter of practice, as originally envisioned, the concept of sustainable life was derived in an attempt to account for a large number and variety of environmental and interpersonal impacts of economic growth , broadly defined, not comfortably accommodated by neoclassical economic theory or practice. kidd (2013) argues that there are at least six different historical intellectual strains of thought that underlie the contemporary concepts of sustainability, each with its own articulation of particularly important foundational issues. he discussed the “ecological/carrying capacity” root, the “natural resource/environment” root. the “biosphere” root, the “critique-of-technology” root and the “ecodevelopment” root (kidd 1992). beck j. brown and colleagues suggest that contemporary usage, the term sustainability has some six different definitions that relate to “sustainable biological resource use,” “sustainable agriculture,” “carrying capacity,” “sustainable energy,” “sustainable society and economy,” and “sustainable development” (brown et al. 1987, 713-719). each of these intellectual roots and definitions suggests its own set of yardsticks that could be used to measure how seriously a city takes sustainability, and to some degree each can be found in sustainability efforts across cities. sustainable living is a lifestyle that attempts to reduce an individual’s or society’s use of the earth’s natural resources and personal resources. whether and the extent to which a particular city’s initiatives are built on the base of any one set or combination of definitions is determined by a variety or local social and political factors. in short, the seriousness of a city’s commitment to sustainability is ultimately determined by the nature of the local governance regime. 3. materials and method the design for the study is descriptive survey. it is considered appropriate in carrying out this study because it facilitates the collection of data systematically from a sample of the population, the population of the study consists of street food vendors in nsukka local government areas of enugu state. available records from the national population commission shows that nsukka population is around 309,448 for both sexes. the estimated number of food vendors operating around the area at about 186. the probability sampling method was employed. however, the simple random method will be employed to select respondent from within the nsukka urban areas. this technique is chosen for it easy understanding and coverage of the study area and for precise and consistent results. the sample size was determined using the yaro yamen formula stated as. 2)u(n+1 n =n however, sixty (60) respondents were interviewed across nsukka urban area.information were collected from various sources such as street food vendors, patronizers of street food vendors and other dwellers of the study area to make review of the socioeconomic cum environmental impact of the activities of street food vendors. the collected data were examined during and after collection. only fully answered sheets were entered in computer for analysis. spss statistical package for social science, version 20 was used to carry out the analysis. simple descriptive analysis was employed to analyze frequency, percentage and standard deviation. face to face interviews were carried out to get in depth knowledge. 4. results and discussion the demographic data of the respondent reveal that50% are male while female is 50%. in all, that51.9% were less than 30 years, and those of age group 30-39 years formed 44.2% and 40-49 years formed 3.8 % of the respondents..6 respondents (11.5%) had first school leaving certificate as their highest attained level of formal education, 22 (42.3%) respondents had senior secondary school certificate, another 22 (42.3%) respondents were graduates, 2 respondents had no formal education. in all, the analysis reveal that, there were 33 (63.5%) single respondents and 19 (36.5%) married respondents. in t6erms of household size, the analysis shows that, 4 (7.7%) respondents were husbands, 12 (23.1%) were wives, 34 (65.4%) are sons/daughters while there were 2 (3.8%) others. households with 5 members and below were 25 forming 48.1 % of the respondents, households with 6 to 10 members were 24 (46.2%), households with 11 to 15 members were 2 (3.8%) and one of the respondents had a household of 15 members. 4 (7.7%) respondents earn less than ten thousand naira, 23 (44.2%) earn between 10,000 and 20,000, 16 (30.8%) earn between 21,000 and 30,000, 1 respondent (1.9%) earns between 31,000 and 40,000, 8 (15.4%) earn 41,000 and above. table 1: visibility of street food vendors variable no. of response percentage % strongly disagree 6 11.5 disagree 1 1.9 indecisive 3 5.8 www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 4, no. 1; 2018 4 agree 32 61.5 strongly agree 10 19.2 total 52 100.0 an assessment of the viability of street food vendors in table 1, 11.5% of the respondents strongly agreed that street food vendors are visible in their locality, 1.9% disagreed, 5.8% were indecisive, 61.5% agreed, while 19.2% strongly agreed. table 2: number of street food vendors variable no. of response percentage % 0-5 18 34.6 6-10 14 26.9 11-15 6 11.5 16-20 5 9.6 above 20 9 17.3 total 52 100.0 in table 2, 34.6% respondents say that less than 5 street vendors were visible in their localities, 26.9% say that 6 to 10 food vendors were visible in their locality, 11.5% say 11 to 15 were visible, 9.6% say 16 to 20 were visible and 17.3% say there are more than 20 street vendors in their localities. table 3: patronage of street food vendors variable no. of response percentage % often 13 25.0 very often 12 23.1 rarely 20 38.5 very rarely 6 11.5 indecisive 1 1.9 total 52 100.0 from the table above, 25% of the respondents often patronize street food vendors, 23.1% patronize them very often, 38.5% rarely do, 11.5% very rarely do, 1.9% were indecisive. table 4: satisfaction from street food vendors variable no. of response percentage % to no extent 2 3.8 to a little extent 11 21.2 to some extent 25 48.1 to a great extent 12 23.1 to a very great extent 2 3.8 total 52 100.0 from the table 4, 3.8% of the respondents do not derive satisfaction from street food vendors, 21.2% derived satisfaction to a little extent, 48.1% do to some extent, 23.1% does to a great extent, and 3.8% does to a very great extent. table 5: most prominent type of street food vendors variable no. of response percentage % stationary 8 15.4 non-stationary 8 15.4 both 34 65.4 others 2 3.8 total 52 100.0 from the table 5, result shows that 15.4% of the respondents said that stationary street food vendors were more prominent in their locality, 15.4% also said that non-stationary street food vendors were more prominent in their locality, 65.4% say both are prominent while 3.8% say others types of vendors are more prominent. from the www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 4, no. 1; 2018 5 results, it is observed that about 3.8% of the respondents strongly disagreed; another 3.8% agreed; 5.8% were indecisive; 51.9% agreed while 34.6% strongly agreed that street food vendors have been in existence in nsukka urban. from the results obtained, it is observed that about 3.8% of the respondents strongly disagreed; 7.7% disagreed; 17.3% were indecisive; 48.1% agreed while 23.1% strongly agreed that the emergence of street food vendors in nsukka urban was consequent upon the quest for a better life. from the results obtained, it is observed that about 5.8% of the respondents strongly disagreed; 11.5% disagreed; 9.6% were indecisive; 51.9% agreed while 21.2% strongly agreed that poor access to credit facilities engendered the choice of street food vendors over a standard eatery in nsukka urban. it is observed that about 7.7% of the respondents strongly disagreed; 21.2% disagreed; 15.4% were indecisive; 48.1% agreed while 7.7% strongly agreed that street food vendors in nsukka urban area have basic educational qualification (i.e., first school leaving certificate). from the results obtained, it is observed that about 9.6% of the respondents strongly disagreed; 50.0% disagreed; 13.5% were indecisive; 23.1% agreed while 3.8% strongly agreed that street food vendors in nsukka urban area are relatively high income earners. as evidenced in the results, about 1.9% of the respondents strongly disagreed; 17.3% disagreed; 1.9% were indecisive; 65.4% agreed while 13.5% strongly agreed that the activities of street food vendors in nsukka urban area have reduced unemployment. also, about 11.5% of the respondents strongly disagreed; 40.4% disagreed; 25.0% were indecisive; 19.2% agreed while 3.8% strongly agreed that street food vendors in nsukka urban area have access to good housing facilities. beside, 3.8% of the respondents strongly disagreed; 26.9% disagreed; 19.2% were indecisive; 44.2% agreed while 5.8% strongly agreed that street food vendors in nsukka urban area contribute to environmental hazard. result also reveal that 3.8% of the respondents strongly disagreed; 21.2% disagreed; 17.3% were indecisive; 51.9% agreed while 5.8% strongly agreed that there is high sense of insecurity among street food vendors in nsukka urban area. none of the respondents opted for strongly disagree; about 9.6% disagreed; 17.3% were indecisive; 55.8% agreed while 17.3% strongly agreed that inadequate communication and technical skills affect street food vendors in nsukka urban area. as revealed in the results, about 3.8% of the respondents strongly disagreed; 13.5% disagreed; 1.9% were indecisive; 57.7% agreed while 23.1% strongly agreed that government policies like imposition of taxes, fines and rates affect street food vendors in nsukka urban area. as revealed in the results, none of the respondents opted for strongly disagreed; about 7.7% disagreed; 3.8% were indecisive; 57.7% agreed while 30.8% strongly agreed that the street food vendors in nsukka urban area are faced with limited space and facilities. none of the respondents opted for strongly disagreed; about 7.7% disagreed; 7.7% were indecisive; 55.8% agreed while 28.8% strongly agreed that site allocation poses a challenge to street food vendors in nsukka urban area. overall, the result indicate that none of the respondents opted for strongly disagreed; about 5.8% disagreed; none of the respondents were indecisive; about 78.8% agreed while 15.4% strongly agreed that street food vendors were well appreciated by consumers for their availability at the right place and time. about 5.8% of the respondents strongly disagreed; 13.5% disagreed; 17.3% were indecisive; about 50.0% agreed while 13.5% strongly agreed that most cases of food poisoning emanated from the activities of street food vendors in nsukka urban area. moreover, none of the respondents opted for strongly disagreed; about 5.8% disagreed; 13.5% were indecisive; 71.2% agreed while 9.6% strongly agreed that food vending provides essential services to many of the urban inhabitants. also, none of the respondents opted for strongly disagreed; about 11.5% disagreed; 11.5% were indecisive; 51.9% agreed while 25.0% strongly agreed that food vending provides cheap food to the people in nsukka urban area. as shown in the results, about 5.8% of the respondents strongly disagreed; 13.5% disagreed; 19.5% were indecisive; 59.6% agreed while 1.9% strongly agreed that food vendors provide low quality food to the people in nsukka urban area. about 5.8% of the respondents strongly disagreed; 21.2% disagreed; 15.4% were indecisive; 42.3% agreed while 15.4% strongly agreed that food vending is a viable alternative to youth empowerment in nsukka urban area. from the analysis, it was discovered that street food vendors has been a source of livelihood that has existed in nsukka urban over time and has contributed immensely to sustainable life in the area though not without some negative implications. this was evidenced in the responses of the respondents. according to the analysis, it was observed that the quest for a better life has been the major driving force for the emergence of street food vendors in nsukka urban area. on the socioeconomic impact of the existence of food vendors, the findings revealed that food vending has aided unemployment reduction in the area of study and invariably, has affected the income distribution positively though being a major contributed to environmental and health challenges in the area. this was attributed to environmental littering and poor hygiene practices among the food vendors. furthermore, the findings revealed that government policies and limited space and facilities were the major problem faced by food vendors in nsukka urban. this is consequent upon the fact that there exist series of government taxes, fines and levies meted upon these food vendors, this scenario is not surprising given that nsukka urban is the headquarters of nsukka local government area. the large hectares of land occupied by the university of nigeria located in the area to a great extent reduced the mass of land available in the area, and this contributed to the poor availability of space for the www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 4, no. 1; 2018 6 operations of these food vendors. finally, the findings further revealed that street food vendors have impacted on sustainable life through their provision of essential services and acting as a viable alternative for youth empowerment in the area though contributing to food poisoning through the provision of low quality food to residents. 5. conclusion this study was undertaken to empirically evaluate the operations of street food vendors and their impact on sustainable life in nsukka urban area. this study was specifically carried out to examine the emergence of street food vendors, to determine the socioeconomic impact, to examine the nature and problems affecting their operations and to investigate the overall impact of street food vendors on sustainable life in the area of coverage. to achieve the objectives of the study, questionnaires were administered to various respondents in the area of study and direct interview method was also adopted and it was found that street food vending was observed to have been in existence within the area of study and its emergence was consequent upon the quest for a better life with a statistically higher percentage of response of about 51.9% and 48.1% respectively. the activities of street food vendors was found to have positive impact on as employment generation while their activities had a negative impact on their earnings, housing and contribution to environmental within the area of study with about 65.4% positive response to reduction in unemployment, 40.4% negative response, 44.2% positive responses to housing and environmental hazards respectively. insecurity, inadequate communication and technical skills, harsh government policies, site allocation and limited space and facilities inhibit the activities of street food vendors in the area of study. findings show that an average of 55.78% of the respondents agreed to the above mentioned assertion. averagely, about 61.05% of the respondents opined that street food vendors has positive impact on sustainable life while about 54.8% were of the opinion that street food vendors impacts negatively on sustainable life given that their activities pose some health challenges. given that most of the socioeconomic indicators of sustainable life, through the activities of street food vendors were negative, government should establish a department of city development committees to help engender positive impact of street food vending and further make it a more viable means of livelihood. since government policies through levies and fines and poor/limited space were the major problems faced by food vendors, special local monitoring team should be set up in the nsukka urban area to ascertain the legality or otherwise of these collections in order to reduce the financial burden on these food vendors and help improve their performances. given that the activities of some of the street food vendors pose some health challenges, orientation should be organized for these food vendors to sensitize them on some standard hygienic practices. references artemis, p.s &. bhat, r. v (2000). street foods. basel: karger publishers beneria, l. & floro, m.s. (2006). labor market informalisation, gender and social protection: reflections on poor urban households in bolivia, ecuador and thailand, in razavi s.and charmes, j. (1998). women working in the informal sector in africa: new methods and new data new york: united nations statistics division. chukuezi, c.o.(2010). entrepreneurs of the streets: socio-economic features of street food vending in owerri, nigeria, european journal of social sciences, 14(2), 183-188 dardano, c. (2003). caribbean regional working group on street food vendors, report of fao,paho and bnsi. accessed from: http://ftp.fao.org/es/esn/food/carribean_report.pdf, food and agriculture organization (fao) (2007). school kids and street food, spotlight magazine. agriculture and consumer protection department, united nations. accessed from http://www.fao.org/ag/magazine/0702sp1.htm international labour organization (ilo) (2002). men and women in the informal economy. accessed from http://www.ilo.org/public/english/employment/gems/download/women.pdf manning, c (1993). international experiences of informal sector activity and the lessons south for africa. transformation, (22). accessed from http://www.transformation.ukzn.ac.za/archive/tran022/tran022006.pdf mukhola, m.s. 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(1981). the urban informal sector in developing countries: employment, poverty and environment. geneva: international labour office. tinker, i.(1997). street foods: urban food and employment in developing countries. new york: oxford university press uneca (united nations economic commission for africa), (2008). achieving gender equality and women’s empowerment in africa, progress report. the african development forum (adf vi) 19-21 november, addis ababa. accessed from: http://www.uneca.org/adfvi/documents/adfvi_progress_report_eng. verick, s.(2006). the impact of globalization on the informal sector in africa, addis ababa: uneca accessed from: http://www.iza.org/conference_files/worldb2006/verick_s872.pdf world health organization (2006). street food vending in the region. food safety challenges. afro food safety newsletter, (2) winarno, f.g & allain, a. (1991). street foods in developing countries: lessons from asia. rome: food and agriculture organization (fao). accessed from: http://www.fao.org/docrep/u3550t/u3550t00.htm, world bank (2001). world development report: attacking poverty. washington d.c. copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. this is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) american economic & social review; vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 published by centre for research on islamic banking & finance and business 33 female labour force, ict and growth nexus in nigeria emmanuel okokondem okon1 1department of economics, kogi state university, anyigba, kogi state, nigeria correspondence: department of economics, kogi state university, anyigba, kogi state, nigeria, e-mail: tonydom57@yahoo.com. tel: +2348023275716 received: january 6, 2018 accepted: january 9, 2018 online published: january 16, 2018 abstract growth in the labor force is one of the determinants of a nation‟s maximum sustainable, or potential, rate of economic expansion. however, in the period of study in this paper, the relationship between women‟s participation in the labor force of nigeria and economic growth is inverse and insignificant. this is attributed to the level of economic development, social norms, education levels, fertility rates and other factors. from policy perspectives therefore educational opportunities for the girl child should be extended to the nooks and crannies of the country so as to enhance socio-economic family planning techniques and methods to reduce the burden of women in the labour force. in the same vein, employers should be encouraged to give all gender equal opportunity and chance to pursue their potentials especially if they have potentials required for a particular job. however, particular attention should be focused on men by enlightening them on the essence of encouraging their spouses on any career they may choose as long as it does not affected the family in any way. keywords: gender, female labour force, economic growth, nigeria. 1. introduction gender differentiation and productivity are critical issues that are central the socio-economic life of any country. women contribute half or more of the country‟s population but they contribute much less than men towards the value of recorded production both quantitatively in labor force participation and qualitatively in educational achievement and skilled man power (olukemi,2008). the extent to which these phenomena are discussed varies from country to country. while the developed countries have practically graduated from problems of gender differentiation, their less developed counterparts are still often been looked down upon in terms of their ability to contribute to the economic well-being of their families which invariably has some correlation to a nation‟s economic growth. in the case of nigeria, the most populous country in africa with an estimated population of 177,155,754 people (index mundi, 2014),right from the pre-colonial-traditional-nigeria-society to its modern state, women have often being discriminated upon in affairs that led to deplete their contribution to economic growth (makuochukwu, 2013).nevertheless, this paper seeks to empirically investigate female labor force contribution to nigeria‟s growth. specifically, the research question to answer is why are women discriminated upon in participating in labor force in this modern state of nigeria?this study is pertinent because the influential role of gender equality on economic growth is most directly illustrated in the participation of women in the labor force (news watch times, 2014) and the size of labor force is an asset in a country‟s capability to enhance productivity and growth. the paper also looks at the effect of ict on economic growth since the growth of information and communications technologies (ict) is changing the way economic and social development occurs in most countries. the introduction of gsm in nigeria was to expand the teledensity in the country and to make telephone services cheaper and accessible to the common person and the business community. gsm is ict based telecommunication than can contribute to the growth and development of any nation. these telecommunication networks have created significant effect on the gross domestic product (gdp) of nigeria in terms of job creation, communication linkages connectivity, security of lives and reduced transport cost among other. this paper attempts to empirically examine www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 34 the impact of ict on the nigerian economic growth, even though many studies (ndukwe, 2004; igwe, 2005) have focused on the challenges and roles of ict in economic growth of nigeria 2. labour force participation in nigeria the total population in nigeria recorded was at 166.2 million people in 2012 from 45.2 million in 1960, changing 268 percent during the last 50 years. population in nigeria averaged 93.39 million from 1960 until 2012, reaching an all-time high of 166.21 million in 2012 and a record low of 45.15 million in 1960 (trading economics, 2015).the estimated population in 2015 is 178 841 235 people (country meters, n.d.).table 1 (adb, 2006) shows that there are more men than women and there is a gradual increase in the rate of growth of males in the nigerian population. table 1 – nigeria‟s population figures (male and female) economic sector small medium manufacturing 13,442 548 minning & quarrying 218 33 accommodation & food services 7,130 161 agriculture 1,424 152 wholesale/retail trade 15,248 258 construction 500 67 transport & storage 820 40 information and communication 448 31 education 22,141 2,867 administrative and support activities 2,956 103 arts, entertainment and recreation 251 16 others services activities 2,793 64 water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation act 24 1 total 67,396 4,341 sector 2013 number percent agriculture 3,300,778 8.92 mining and quarrying 70,443 0.19 manufacturing 4,887,395 13.21 sewage, waste management and remediation activities 7,875 0.02 construction 731,303 1.98 wholesale and retail 20,224,627 54.67 transportation and storage 1,760,932 4.76 accommodation and food services 2,039,517 5.51 information and communication 335,604 0.91 administration and support services 213,724 0.58 education 104,420 0.28 arts, entertainment and recreation 390,609 1.06 other services 2,927,351 7.91 transport, storage and communication 0 0.00 hotel and restaurant 0 0.00 total 36,994,578 100.00 year female ‘000 male ‘000 % % male www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 35 female 1970 26,098.0 25,759.3 50.33 49.67 1975 29,592.3 29,357.4 50.20 49.80 1980 34,191.0 34,256.4 49.95 50.05 1985 39,174.9 39,260.0 49.95 50.05 1990 45,140.3 45,417.0 49.85 50.15 1995 51,677.4 52,236.3 49.73 50.27 2000 58,318.0 59,289.8 49.59 50.41 2001 59,643.4 60,724.6 49.55 50.45 2002 60,967.1 62,167.2 49.51 50.49 2003 62,293.1 63,619.1 49.47 50.53 2004 63,626.6 65,082.4 49.43 50.57 2005 64,971.3 66,558.3 49.40 50.60 2014 88,693.2 90,985.0 49.36 50.64 source: adb (2006). countrymeters (n.d.). going through other statistics, however, we note that wherever it mattered, women were negatively impacted upon e.g. in illiteracy rate and in labour force participation rate as shown table 2 and 3. table 2 adult illiteracy rate in nigeria year female% male% 1970 89.5 69.5 1075 84.0 62.4 1980 78.3 55.3 1985 69.9 48.0 1990 61.6 40.6 1995 52.8 34.0 2000 49.9 27.8 2001 42.3 26.7 2002 40.7 25.6 2003 39.1 24.5 2004 37.4 23.5 2005 35.8 22.4 20052011 58.6 38.7 source: adb( 2006), adb (2014) note that while the illiteracy rate fell for both men and women, the illiteracy rate among the female population is still more than 50% higher than among the male population. the same can also be said for labour force participation rate, which shows the percentage of the population employed. the 2006 data (adb 2006) show that the female labor participation rate is less than 50% of the male labour participation rate. this has implications for income levels and economic empowerment, especially when this is taken together with the data on participation at different levels for the different genders.tables 5 indicates that there are hardly any sector where women do not participate in. table 3 – labour force participation rate in nigeria year female as % of total male as % of total 1970 36.8 73.2 1975 36.2 73.8 1980 35.5 74.5 1985 35.1 74.9 1990 34.6 75.4 1995 35.1 74.9 2000 35.7 74.3 www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 36 2001 35.7 74.3 2002 35.8 74.2 2003 na na 2004 na na 2005 na na 2013 42.6 na source: adb (2006), adb(2014) table 4: percentage distribution of working population by employment status male female male female regular employee 17.8 8.8 casually employed 3.1 0.9 unpaid worker 8.2 15.5 self employed 70.9 74.9 total 100 100 source: national bureau of statistics table 5: economic participation by occupation and by sex occupation/sector male female gender parity index (gpi)* agriculture 41.48 22.41 0.54 trade & industry 35.08 44.95 1.28 oil & gas 3.77 1.59 0.42 services 11.32 13.81 1-22 others 8.36 17.25 2.06 total 100.2 100 1.00 gpi is the ratio of the female to the male measure of a variable. source: federal governemnet of nigeria (2008). 2.1. telecommunication information on nigeria the total number of subscribers to telephone lines as at the end of december 1986 was put at around 230,000 while telex subscribers were only 5,300 in number.total installed capacity for telephone then was 320,834 and telex 11,577. the percentage utilization for telephone therefore was 71.6 per cent while telex was approximately 45.7 per cent. however, modernity in telecommunications has provided facilities that make for new class of service, improved revenue generation with properly reviewed tariff policy. now, in 1996, the country has almost 1,000,000 subscribers to telephone lines all of which are handled by standard a antennae facing both the indian and the atlantic ocean regions installed at four (4 no.) different geographical locations across the country. nigeria operates a domestic satellite system by leasing three (3 no.) transponders from intelsat which are accessed by nineteen (19 no.) standard b earth stations in some state capitals of the federation. there is a territorial manager responsible for telecommunications administration in each state except lagos state where because of the relatively large number of switching centres and subscribers in the metropolis, it was considered prudent to have at least two (2no.) territorial managers. nigeria embraced digital technology since the 1980s with the introduction of digital switches and transmission systems (radio and optic fibre) into the network. since the beginning of the 90s, mobile telephone services (cellular), paging and electronic mail have also been part of the services offered by nitel (nigerian telecommunications plc). nitel had an x.25 and x.40 switching facilities in its network. with a population of one hundred million (100m) back then , the figure of more than half a million telephone lines in the country means in effect, a very low telephone density ratio; though the country has the largest number of telephones in any one country in africa (alabi, n.d.). still, in this present time, ttelecommunication infrastructure remains one of the major issues affecting technology deployment required for growth and development in nigeria. there has however, been massive improvement in infrastructure over the past few years. nigeria has certainly left the telecomm state where there were only a few dialup e-mail providers and internet service providers (isps) and when nigerian telecommunications limited (nitel) www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 37 was the only telecommunications operator. it was a dark era characterized by slow internet links, poor service, high cost, lack of infrastructure and an unprogressive telecoms monopoly. things have certainly changed. deregulation of the telecommunications sector led to the introduction of major global system of mobile communications (gsm), mobile phone providers mtn nigeria, v-mobile, globacom and mtel (jidaw (n.d.). nigeria's government had earlier provided the impetus for liberalization by setting up the nigerian communications commission (ncc) (http://www.jidaw.com/comm.html). although ncc became the regulatory body for nigeria's telecom sector in 1992, it is the present government that dealt with the telecom policy, interconnection agreements and the empowerment of ncc. ncc issues licenses to private telecoms companies providing a variety of telecom services to the nigerian populace. 3. empirical review economic literature shows significant attention towards the role played by female labor force in the economic development of nations. the participation of female labour force is desirable for both equity and efficiency reasons. the equity aspect shows that the women‟s participation in the labor market ultimately improves their relative economic position, increase the overall economic efficiency by enhancing the development potential of the country. moreover, the increasing integration of women in the economy helps in reducing gender disparities in education, improving maternal health, increasing sectoral share of female employment in different sectors of the economy (mujahid and zafar, n.d.). in her bid to examine the influence of religion on female labor force participation across countries, h‟madoun (2010) specified and estimated a probit model with a vector of religious variables among other exogenous predictors. the data for the study were obtained from the 2005 wave of the world value survey, where 26,711 women in the age range 18 to 55 years in 48 countries were selected for the study. like many other studies of this nature, the religious women were found to participate less in labor market activities than the non-religious women after controlling for other social and economic variables in the model. the shortcoming of the study, in our view, is the fact that all the 48 countries were lumped together in the analysis without being disaggregated for countryspecific peculiarities (fadayomiand ogunrinola, n.d.). sackey (2005) used data from the ghana living standard survey (glss4 and glss3) to estimate the female labor force participation and fertility models. it was assumed that the two concepts – labor force participation and fertility decisions – are strongly linked and as such they should be studied together. to do this, a probit and a multinomial model types were specified and estimated. significant contribution of this study is the negative effect of education on fertility while education and reduced family size increase labor force participation rate in ghana. aromolaran (2004) examined the influence of education (both own and husband‟s) on labor force participation of married women in nigeria in wage market employment, self-employment and overall labor market participation. the study confirms not only the influence of own education (both bundled and unbundled) on labor force participation, but also that the husband‟s education positively influence the labor force participation of married women in nigeria. a body of theoretical and empirical literature provides evidence that female labor force participation has a positive and strong relationship with economic growth (tansel, 2002; fatima and sultana, 2009). icts constitute an opportunity and a fundamental source of job creation, economic and technological catching up, cost cutting of transactions and the informative distance, improvement of the gains of productivity, the quality of the services and decentralization of the powers and help achieve better coordination, etc.,(kahouli, 2012). these positive effects on the economic growth justify the significant investments in icts made by different countries and reveal an increasing interest in these technologies. indeed, at the international level, a significant evolution has been witness in terms of access to these technologies and a liberalization of the icts market in most countries. empirically, several authors confirmed the positive effect of icts on productivity and economic growth. dewan and kraemer (1998) studied the impact of icts diffusion on the productivity for a sample of 36 countries during 1985 – 1993. they explained the annual gdp by the stock of icts capital, the stock of capital other than icts and annual number of working hours. 4. methodology this study employed content analysis and quantitative approaches. it adapted makuochukwu‟s (2013) model and augmented it for this analysis. the model is specified as follows:gdp = π +δ fle + ict +λmlf +ѱ where: gdp is gross domestic product; fle means female labor force employment; ict is information communication technology (gsm); mle denotes male labor force employment; ѱ is error term used to capture other variables that are not included in the model; π is the intercept of the model; δ, , λ are co-efficient of the independent variables. the apriori expectation is as follows: δ, , λ > 0. this study used data covering 1986-2016 mainly from secondary sources for all the variables concerned.time series characteristics of the variableswere carried before the actual analysis. the data for the analysis is from the central www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 38 bank of nigeria statistical bulletin.the choice of these secondary sources is based on their authenticity and reliability. the operational methodology adopted for this multiple regression analysis was ordinary least square (ols) econometric technique. this was necessary in order to determine the nature and extent of the relationship that exists among the variables.the estimates are evaluated for statistical significance based on the relevant statistics of regression output (t– statistical test, f – ratio test). the explanatory power of the model as a measure of goodness of fit is decided using r2 and adjusted r2 test. 5. result and discussion 5.1 regression result variable coefficient std. error t-value prob flf -13340.43 44376.00 -0.300623 0.7668 ict 1.030238 0.187135 5.505335 0.0000 mle -223496.10 28724.33 -0.817986 0.4230 c 2591292 3892754 0.665670 0.5132 r2 = 0.918272 r2 adjusted 0.906012 dw=2.150607 source:eviews4.0 the analysis was conducted with the use of the eviews software; the adjusted r-square of 0.906012 depicts a high explanatory power of the model. this means that 90% variation in gdp is as a result of variation in icts, mlf and flf. the f-statistic which measures the overall significance of the regression model shows that the model is significant. the durbin-watson statistic shows that the possibility of a serial correlation in the equation is low. this is because the value is above 2. the result of the ordinary least square (ols) shows thatthe estimates of the model parameters show consistency with the theoretical expectation for the coefficient, but δ and λ coefficients have negative signs which are contradictory to the a priori expectation. by implication, for every unit increase in icts, gdp increases by 1.030238 units. this coefficient shows statistical significance at 0.01 level of significance. in nigeria, the noticeable gain from ict is the increase in productivity which is enabled by easier and efficient communication, facilitated by increased access to telephone and then internet. however, the country has a long way to go, considering such prevailing factors like the limited access to ict infrastructure, including fixed and mobile telephony services ratio, internet and broadband service penetration. it is essential to note that ict growth far exceeds the mass importation and presence of telephones, computers and other ict devices. infrastructural content as well as the amount of usage of services by the populace for instance, the level of telephony density, are factors that are key in grading the country in terms of ict growth (compuworld, n.d.). furthermore, the regression result reveals an inverse relationship between male labour force and gross domestic product (gdp) during the period that was studied. this implies that a unit increase in the male labour employment leads to a decline in gdp by 23496.10 units. this result is attributed to the unemployment rate during the subsidy removal and minimum wage law period where some industries lay -off their workers in nigerian. historically, males have always dominated labour force in the country. however, labour productivity growth has been unsatisfactory in nigeria. indeed, there is a huge decline in gdp per worker over the years, this implies low gdp per person (whether male or female)in the country (umoru and yaqub, 2013). the result shows that an increase in female labour force employment (flf) by 1 unit will slow down growth (gdp) by 13340.43 units. this result aligns with klasen and lamanna (2009) who investigated the same relationship for sub-saharan african (ssa) and arab countries and find female share of labour force to be negatively associated with economic growth. however, flf variable in this study appeared to be statistically insignificant at any of the conventional levels. more so, the magnitude of the decline in gdp caused by female labour force participation is less than that caused by male counterpart. this is because the labour force participation rate of men is higher than those of women in nigeria. as at year 2010, the percentage of women that participated in labour force is still as low as 40% which is less than half (nwakeze, n.d.). this is consistent with the view that “women generally have higher rates of unemployment and especially of under-employment and disguised unemployment than men and find it difficult to re-enter employment once they lose their jobs” (lim, 2002). this is asa result of some militating factors. 5.2 factors militating against women’s active participation in nigeria’s labor force due to huge family responsibilities, it is always difficult to give adequate time to both work and home activities. for instance, pregnancy period and child nursing are very demanding; much is expected from the woman in the home. even though there is maternity leave there is not enough time to attend to the child. www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 39 in the traditional nigerian society, the female is accorded a low status that leaves her with less choice than to be at the background. the international bank for reconstruction and development/the world bank (1994) stated that women‟s disadvantaged social position which is often related to the economic value placed on family roles, helps perpetuate poor health, inadequate diet, early and frequent pregnancy and a continued cycle of poverty. they explained also that parents may invest less in girls because they perceived them to have less economic potentials since girls often become part of another family at marriage and generally earn less income. they further state that women‟s low socio-economic status can also expose them to physical and sexual abuse and mental digression the value and importance of educating women has not been adequately recognized. high illiteracy and low enrolment rates, especially in secondary schools, affect women‟s ability to acquire the skills needed for income generating activities. more still, they are restricted to certain sectors like agriculture, teaching, nursing, clerical work as well as household and domestic service occupations. in addition, they do not migrate (i.e., constraint to mobility of labour) easily, especially if they are married and have children. these lead to reduction in their participation in the labour force. nigerian women are underrepresented at high level managerial, executive and legislative bodies in the country, thus limiting the chance of improving the number of female employment. 6. conclusion and suggestions information and communication technology (ict) has been accepted as one of the main driving force behind organizational competitiveness in the present day business environment. though the government of nigeria has taken several steps to create an environment good enough to attract investment and ventures by entrepreneurs, a lot still need to be done to check the prevailing anomalies in terms of existing infrastructure. in the ict sector. this paper suggests that:  there is need for a special incentive programme to induce investment in the ict sector while at the same time, there is need to promote legislations for the protection of online business transactions, to ensure adequate privacy security and privacy.  there is need for an increase in the literacy rate in ict using ict tools like e-learning to enhance the usage of ict tools as well as reduce the cost of gaining access to the computer and internet. as such this paper urges the government to work on policies that affect the ict sector. the cost of acquiring such tools should be subsidized to encourage acquisition of such tools.  growth in the labor force is one of the determinants of a nation‟s maximum sustainable, or potential, rate of economic expansion. however, in the period of study in this paper, the relationship between women‟s participation in the labor force of nigeria and economic growth is inverse and insignificant. this is attributed to the level of economic development, social norms, education levels, fertility rates and other factors. from policy perspectives, this paper therefore recommend that:  educational opportunities for the girl child should be extended to the nooks and crannies of the country so as to enhance socio-economic family planning techniques and methods to reduce the burden of women in the labour force. in that regard, child care in the form of day care centers, pri-school education etc., should be provided and subsidized.  in urban areas and most especially in the rural areas in nigeria, efforts should be geared towards increasing access to ict education, removing socio-cultural norms that discourage women from studying science and technology, and removing stereotypes that women have towards ict jobs (hafkin and taggart, 2001).  the general public should be re-oriented and educated that both gender have equal chance of being employed into any sector of the economy. this can be done by creating awareness through seminars, conferences and workshop. in the same vein, employers should be encouraged to give all gender equal opportunity and chance to pursue their potentials especially if they have potentials required for a particular job. however, particular attention should be focused on men by enlightening them on the essence of encouraging their spouses on any career they may choose as long as it does not affected the family in any way. in addition, the society should discourage existing cultural and religious practices which forbid women from taking up paid employment.  government of nigeria should focus on encouraging cottage industries in rural areas where the participation of women can easily be increased due to their cultural and traditional skills. similarly, public and private partnership in the cottage industries should be explored in order to facilitate industrial expansion to accommodate the unemployed in nigeria.  there should be systematic inclusion of gender concerns at the policy, institutional and managerial levels in nigeria, that way the employment needs of female can be met. www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 40 references adb(2006). gender, poverty and environmental indicators on african countries.https://ideas.repec.org/b/adb/adbgpe/90.html. adb(2014). gender, poverty and environmental indicators on african countries.http://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/documents/publications/gender__poverty_and_env ironmental_indicators_on_african_countries_2014.pdf alabi, g.a. 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(2004). factors affecting women participation in the labour forcenigeria. journal of agriculture and social research, 4(2), 43-53. copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. this is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) http://www.tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/population contents american economic & social review vol. 1, no. 1; 2017 published by centre for research on islamic banking & finance and business 45 relevance of vocational skill acquisition programmes for employment in an era of dwindling economy in bauchi metropolis abubakar idris1 umar buba2 lukman suleiman3 adamu ladan adamu4 1+2+3+4department of vocational and technology education, faculty of technology education, abubakar tafawa balewa university, bauchi, nigeria correspondence: abubakar idris, department of vocational and technology education, faculty of technology education, abubakar tafawa balewa university, bauchi, nigeria tel: +2348145348525, e-mail: abubakaridris454@gmail.com received: september 28, 2017 accepted: september 30, 2017 online published: october 4, 2017 abstract the study was conducted to find out the relevance of vocational skill acquisition programmes for employment in an era of dwindling economy in bauchi metropolis. two research questions were formulated for the study. an 11 items questionnaire was developed and used to get responses from the trainees. a descriptive survey was employed for the study. the questionnaire was validated by two experts from vocational and technology education department. mean statistical tool was used to analyze the data collected. the result of the study indicated that the most important objectives of vocational skill acquisition programmes were to enable youth to acquire vocational skills that would provide gainful employment as well as raise their standards of living. also the trainees perceived the relevance of skill acquisition programmesas centers for imparting marketable skills that focus more on practical aspect than theory. it was recommended that training courses should be relevant to the need of the sectors and target group. those training centers should serve as places for providing employment opportunities to the public since our economy is declining and government opportunities are less because of scarce resources. keywords: vocational, skill acquisition, training, youth. 1. introduction historically, nigeria has been facing a number of problems since the period of independence in 1960; among which are social and economic problems such as poverty, diseases, youth empowerment and general under development, in spite of the abundant material and human resources youth represent the future and hope of every country for development. the over-increasing social vices among youth, the challenge posed by relevance of vocational skill acquisition programmes for employment in an era of dwindling economy in bauchi metropolis idris et al. 46 unemployment and the general economic depression being experienced in most of the states calls for the need to evolve a reliable alternative remedies to engage youth into a useful and gainful livelihood. skill acquisition centers are one of the strategies employed by various states and the federal government to eradicate poverty and sustain economic growth. it is believed that universally that youth are the leaders of tomorrow but this can only come to manifestation if they are properly developed and equipped with needed skills and capacity that will prepare them for future challenges and leadership roles ( fashola, 2009). the cause of the programme was the increase in the rate of unemployment, poverty and youth unrest in the nation. the objectives of skill acquisition centers is to as stated by the national policy on education (2004) are:  empower the youth who have no opportunity of having university or any tertiary education the acquisition of various skills that would enable them to be self reliant and become responsible citizen of the country.  reduce unemployment and the number of youth engaged in unproductive pursuits  provide additional source of income  to act as a forum for youth o exchange ideas that will improve their economic status and enlighten youth as the importance of education or learning a trade and support them in the establishment of their own business. the need for establishing skill acquisition is the fact that not everybody would want a formal and complete education. but even if we do have a formal and complete education today, the color of the global economy is changing and therefore, certificates from any university are no longer a meal ticket, it is only a step to finding the part to that meal ticket. people must be ready now to use their talents; to use their skills to earn a living. any nation that does not produce what it seeks to consume is looking for trouble (fashola, 2009). therefore, lack of acquisition of vocational skills on the part of individuals has been the bane of the nigerian economy, because the educational system operated at post-independence placed emphasis on academic excellence rather than acquisition of vocational skills which prepares the individual for a more useful and fulfilling life with in the society. these culminated to be the need for establishing skills acquisition centers across the nation (omoruyi & osunde, 2006). 2. statement of the problem the most serious socio-economic problems facing youth are youth restiveness, high rate of unemployment, low education and low self esteem. most of these problems are compounded by the fact that most school graduates normally rely solely on the government because they do not have skills to be self-employed and rely upon. about 70% of nigerians lives below poverty line and survive on less than one dollar per day. more also it is widely acknowledge that, unemployment is the major concern of national and international organizations like family economic advancement programme (feap). the study therefore, focus on the relevance of vocational acquisition centers in alleviating the problems facing youth and to improve their social economic development 3. objectives of the research the main objective of the research is to find out the relevance of vocational skill acquisition programmes for employment in an era of dwindling economy. specifically the research intends to:  to find out the objectives of vocational skill acquisition programme in an era of dwindling economy.  to find out the perception of trainees on the relevance of vocational skill acquisition programmes in an era of dwindling economy. relevance of vocational skill acquisition programmes for employment in an era of dwindling economy in bauchi metropolis idris et al. 47 4. research questions the following research questions were formulated to guide the research:  what are the objectives of vocational skill acquisition programmes in an era of dwindling economy?  what is the perception of trainees on the relevance of vocational skill acquisition programmes in an era of dwindling economy? 5. research methodology the design for the study is survey and the area of the study is bauchi metropolis. the population of the study comprises of all the trainees of the 37 vocational skill acquisition centers in the metropolis. stratified random sampling technique was used to select 5 centers because each center specialized in different skill. forty (40) trainees were randomly selected from the training centers making a total of two hundred (200) respondents. structured questionnaire was used as the instrument for data collection and were developed based on the research questions. research question one (1) contains five (5) items and research question two (2) contains six (6) items. all the items are arranged under four (4) points likert type scale as: 4strongly agreed (sa) 3agreed (a) 2disagreed (d) 1-strongly disagreed (sd) the instrument was validated by two (2) lecturers in vocational and technology education department of abubakar tafawa balewa university, bauchi. data was collected through personal contact with the help of a research assistant. the data collected were analyzed using mean and the cut of point is 2.5. computed mean value of 2.5 and above was considered agreed while computed mean value below 2.5 was considered disagreed. 6. result and discussion research question one(1) what are the objectives of vocational skill acquisition programmes in an era of dwindling economy? table one (1) mean responses on the objectives of vocational skill acquisition programmes in an era of dwindling economy s/n items mean remarks 1 programmes enable youth to acquire vocational skills that would provide gainful employment 3.4 agreed 2 the programmes makes trainees self-reliant 3.2 agreed 3 it raises trainees general standard of living 3.2 agreed 4 it helps the trainees cope with technological changes 2.8 agreed 5 enable trainees to become productive and useful citizens 3.1 agreed grand mean 3.14 from the table above, research question one of the study showed that the most important and strongest objectives of vocational skill acquisition programmes in an era of dwindling economy are to enable the participants or trainees acquire vocational skills that would make them self-reliant as well as to become more productive and useful citizens in the country and also raising their standard o living. the findings are in line with the national policy on education (2013) which stated that the objectives of vocational skill programmes is to enable trainees to acquire skills that are self –reliant so as to raise their standard of living. relevance of vocational skill acquisition programmes for employment in an era of dwindling economy in bauchi metropolis idris et al. 48 research question two (2) what is the perception of trainees on the relevance of vocational skill acquisition programmes for employment in an era of dwindling economy? table two: mean responses on the relevance of vocational skill acquisition programmes in an era of dwindling economy. s/n items mean remarks 1 the programme equips youth and adult with most of the necessary skills required for employment and upgrade their job performance. 2.8 agreed 2 the programme is given prominence through proper funding and provision of good infrastructure 2.2 disagreed 3 the center serves as a place for self actualization programmes to the youth 2.8 agreed 4 the center imparts marketable skills to unemployed youth 2.8 agreed 5 the curriculum focus more on the practical aspect than theory 3.2 agreed 6 the programme should be supported by both government and private organizations 3.1 agreed grand mean 2.82 from the table above, research question two revealed that the trainees perceived the relevance of skills acquisition programmes as a centre for imparting marketable skills that focuses more on the practical aspect than theory. but unfortunately, the youth for whom the programmes are meant for were found not to be adequately motivated for the programme because it was not given prominence through proper funding. the statement was in line with olateju (2003) which stated that unemployment and poverty cannot be eradicated unless skill acquisition programmes are given prominence in the country through proper funding and provision of infrastructure. 7. conclusion this study found out that the most important objectives of vocational skill acquisition programmes were to enable youth to acquire vocational skills that would provide gainful employment for self-reliant so as to raise their general standard of living. also in the study it was found that the centers focuses more on the practical aspect than theory as well as imparting marketable skills to unemployed youth for self actualization. 8. recommendation vocational skill acquisition programmes is a process of human resources development. they provide the skilled personnel needed in this country as a developing nation. in order to achieve the objectives and mission of the programmes the following steps or measures should be taken into considerations. training courses should be relevant to the need of the sectors and target group.  income generated by trainees should be use judiciously without extravagancy so as to give an avenue for growth, expansion and diversification in the economy.  training courses should be updated with the technological advancement in the society.  discipline should be made effective in the training centers so as to make the trainees value their vocation and be useful citizens in the society.  those training centers should serve as places for providing employment opportunities to the public since our economy is declining and government opportunities are less because of scarce resources. relevance of vocational skill acquisition programmes for employment in an era of dwindling economy in bauchi metropolis idris et al. 49 references atembe, b. n. (2011). skill acquisition programmes through vocational education: a key to poverty alleviation in nigeria in technology education. proceedings of the 14th annual conference of nigerian association of teachers of technology (natt) held at umunze etuk,l.a. (2010). development of occupational skills in agriculture. uyo journal of association for advancement of vocational education in nigeria (jaaven). university of uyo. fashola, b. (2009). tackling youth unemployment through vocational skills acquisition. published by lagos newspaper. national policy on education (2013). federal government press, lagos. omoruyi, feo and osunde, au (2014). evaluating the effectiveness of the national youth empowerment and vocational skills acquisition programmes in midwestern nigeria: adult education and poverty eradication. olateju, aso (2013). entrepreneurship in vocational and technical education. a panacea proceedings of 16th annual national conference of nigerian association of teachers of technology held at oyo state college of education. copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. contents american economic & social review vol. 1, no. 1; 2017 published by centre for research on islamic banking & finance and business 7 policy reforms in nigerian health sector and the potential for poverty reduction ibrahim suleiman1 sambo abubakar2 hamza shehu mohammed3 1++3department of political science, bauchi state university, gadau, nigeria 2department of public administration, bauchi state university, gadau, nigeria correspondence: ibrahim suleiman, 3department of political science, bauchi state university, gadau, nigeria, tel: +2348060287718, e-mail: isuleiman@basug.edu.ng received: september 28, 2017 accepted: september 30, 2017 online published: october 3, 2017 abstract this paper studies the policy reforms in the nigerian health sector and potentiality of the sector towards poverty reduction in the country. the study investigates the contribution of health in the process of poverty reduction by various governments in nigeria. the study employs secondary source as a methods of data collection. the study reveals that health sector reform involves more than just improvement in health or health care. it is a process motivated by the need to address fundamental deficiencies in health care systems that affect all health care services. health sector reform in nigeria is based on the poor health status of the population and the poor rating of the health system itself. the study reveals that nigerian health status was ranked 187 out of 191 countries by who in 2000. the infant mortality rate, the under-five mortality rate and the maternal mortality ratio are some of the indicators that are often used to compare health status of populations. nigeria’s figures on each of the three indicators are some of the worst in the world, even by the standard of developing countries. the health sector reform was one of the social sector reforms undertaken by the obasanjo administration, with the national economic empowerment development strategy (needs) providing the overall national development framework. the needs, itself, has four major goals: wealth creation, poverty reduction, employment generation and value re-orientation. consequently, the study look at the contribution of the health sector reform towards reduction of poverty in nigeria. keywords: policy reform, health sector reform & poverty reduction in nigeria. 1. introduction a health system is an organizational framework for the distribution of health care needs of a given community. it is a complex system of inter-related elements that contribute to the health of the people in their homes, educational institutions, in work places, the public (social or recreational) and the psychological environments as well as the directly health and health-related sectors. health is wealth and to create wealth at the individual, family, community or national level, people must be healthy; to enjoy wealth that is created, an individual, family, community or nation must be healthy. health is good entry point for breaking the vicious circle of policy reforms in nigerian health sector and the potential for poverty reduction suleiman et al. 8 ill-health, poverty and under-development and for converting it to the vicious circle of improved health status, prosperity and sustainable development. health sector reform (hsr), a sustained process of fundamental change in policy, regulation, financing, provision of health services, re-organization, management and institutional arrangements, that is led by government, and designed to improve the performance of the health system for better health status of the population (who, 2000). according to shehu, (2000) nigeria faces a number of development challenges, of which poverty holds a central place. certainly, the country is a land of paradox in as much as poverty is concerned. while nigeria is a leading oil-producing nation and highly endowed in terms of various natural resources, the majority of her people are economically poor. the concerned of the health sector reform is not only a health-related but also a development issue as health care systems account for 9 percent of global production and a significant portion of global empowerment. health sector reform implementation varies across different countries and regions of the world, indeed states within a country. this is because of differences in values, goals and priorities. in nigeria, the federal ministry of health has the responsibility of developing policies, strategies, guidelines, plans and programmes that provide direction for the national health care delivery system. in addition, the federal ministry of health is currently a major provider of tertiary health care services and various other health intervention programmes aimed at promoting, protecting and preventing ill health of nigerians. the health sector reform programme and national strategic development plan (nshdp) establishes a framework, including goals, targets and priorities that should guide the action and work of the federal ministry of health and, to some extent, state ministries of health and development partners over the next four years. the document sets the time table and direction for strategic reforms and investment in key areas of the national health system, within the context of the overall government macro-economic framework, (needs) the new economic empowerment and development strategy. this is aimed at re-orienting the values of nigerians, reforming government and institutions; growing the role of the private sector, and ensuring a social charter on human development with the people of nigeria, national bureau of statistics, (2005). 2. brief history of health sector reform in nigeria the nigerian health care system have experienced five past reforms from the traditional health care system that existed in nigerian since british colonial era, the first nigerian colonial development plan of the 1940s provides some limited framework for the health system. it was a unitary health service system. secondly, came to the era of regional government in the 1950s. even though no specific documentation of such reform exists, the national health system stopped being unitary; and the regional governments started to run independent and sometimes parallel health systems with the federal government. thirdly, came to the second national development plan of the immediate post-independence era in the 1960s. again the plan did not articulate a system with clear vision, or the assignment of responsibilities to the three levels of government. fourthly, the third national development plan of the 1970s was a rather ambitious plan with the basic health services scheme as its focus. it was quite elaborate in its health reform attempt. it was rely on infrastructure and assisting health manpower development. it however failed to share responsibilities between the three levels of government for resources generation, manpower development, and services delivery, especially on the health professional manpower for the services. all these happened in the absence of a clear policy framework. the fifth one is the health sector reform of fourth republic that is currently taking place till 2015 sharif, (2011). 3. research method this study used qualitative approach base on content analysis and data collected from various sources. the policy reforms in nigerian health sector and the potential for poverty reduction suleiman et al. 9 primary sources include data from governmental and non-governmental health organization, whereas, secondary sources include data collected from journals, and scholars contribution. 4. health sector reform reform means positive change. however, health sector reform brings more than just improvement in health or health care. it is a process motivated by the need to address fundamental problems in the health care systems that affect all health care services. health sector reform has been defined as “a sustained process of fundamental change in policy and institutional arrangements, guided by government, designed to improve the functioning and performance of the health sector, and ultimately the health status of the population. a committee of the who african region defined it as “a sustained process of fundamental change in policy, regulation, financing, provision of health services, re-organisation, management and institutional arrangements that is led by government and designed to improve the performance of a health system to attain a better health status for the population. according to berman, (nd) it can also be defined as a “sustained and purposeful change to improve the efficiency, equity and effectiveness of the health sector. “sustained” in the sense that it is not a "one shot" temporary effort that will not have enduring impacts; and, “purposeful” in the sense of having a rational, planned basis to improve health system performance in terms of well-defined outcomes hsr can also be described as strategic in the sense of addressing significant, fundamental dimensions of health systems. nigeria’s overall health system performance was ranked 187th among the 191 member states by the world health organisation in 2000 (world health report). 5. the need for the health sector reform there are many things that are responsible for the problem in our health care system, the most important of which is the inadequacies of the community or primary health care services. the whole international community agreed that primary health care is the only viable way of improving health status in order to produce optimum health for the people. so what is wrong with the primary health care system in nigeria for which a reform will be important? these are some of the things that necessitate the reform in the health sector:  reviewing of the national constitution to share the responsibility for the primary, secondary and tertiary health care. separate national health bill will also be needed to give more details to this and require the three levels of government not divert outside from their primary responsibility if they have not substantially fulfilled it first.  involvement of appropriate community health professionals nurses (as community health nurses) operating from medically manned health centres or community hospitals or district nurses managing theirs districts in the absence of immediate community physician support; and physicians as medical officers of health for every local government area in the country.  state government should provide staff and equipment to district hospitals as the major aspect of their secondary health care services for which they hold primary responsibility. this is the first part of the primary health care support without which phc will not work.  the training and retraining of health professionals and assisting primary health care workers in a situation that stimulate team work, rather than intra-sectoral division.  the orientation, reorientation and continuing education of the political class and community leaders, especially the local government chairmen and councilors for health, for political will and on-going support for phc and secondary health care. policy reforms in nigerian health sector and the potential for poverty reduction suleiman et al. 10 6. current status of health situation in the nigeria the infant mortality rate, the under-five mortality rate and the maternal mortality ratio are some of the indicators that are used to compare health status of populations. nigerian figures on each of the three indices are some of the worst in the world, even by the standard of developing countries. currently, a tenth of children born in nigeria die under the age of one year (infant mortality rate of 100 per 1000 live births) and a fifth die before their fifth birthday (under-five mortality rate of 201 per 1000 live births). moreover, according to the most recent research from united nations agencies, over 50,000 mothers die from child-birth related events the second highest annual national maternal deaths figure in the world. nigerian maternal mortality ratio is estimated to be between 800 and 1,000 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births. the leading causes of deaths among mothers and children in nigeria are preventable health problems or easily treatable ones. for children, these include vaccine preventable diseases such as polio, diphtheria, whooping cough, tetanus, and measles, malaria, and diarrhoea. the situation suggests that the nigerian health system needs radical reform to improve its performance (who report, 2000). the hsr was one of the social sector reforms undertaken by the obasanjo administration during his second tenure in 2004, with the national economic empowerment development strategy (needs) providing the overall national development framework. the needs, itself, has four major goals: wealth creation, poverty reduction, employment generation and value re-orientation. the development of the health sector reform implementation document provides a participatory and consultative approach with inputs from various stakeholders in the health sector, including the national council on health. the main goals of the hsr was to undertake a government led comprehensive health sector aimed at strengthening the national health system to enable it to deliver effective, efficient, qualitative and affordable health services and thereby improve the health status of nigerians as health sector’s contribution to break the vicious circle of ill-health, poverty and under-development. this suggests that the policy makers and the drivers of the reform process recognized the inter-relationship between poverty and ill-health and understand the potential of the hsr to contribute to poverty reduction in the country. in fact, one of the underlying assumptions and principles for the hsr programme is the belief “that ill-health is a major determinant of poverty. thus, addressing the health needs of all nigerians is an important component of the country’s poverty reduction strategy” (shehu, 2011). furthermore, nigeria is a secular state; hence any policy reforms taking by the government excluded the issue of religion in order to avoid any tension and chaos. health sector reform came out with some policies and programmes which generated a lot of controversies especially within the islamic scholars in the country, this is the issue of “health insurance”, and some islamic scholars are of the opinion that it is un-islamic, while others supported the policy. this contradiction between two groups created a lot of problems in terms of implementing the goals and objectives of the health sector reform. unlike nigeria, the kingdom of saudi arabia implemented the health sector reform through health insurance based on islamic principles (shariah). the title of the programme is islamic cooperative health insurance (takaful) in saudi arabia. the muslim jurists in saudi arabia generally agree that islamic health insurance (takaful) is based on principles of mutuality and cooperation. these necessities shared responsibility, joint agreement, common interest and solidarity, and freedom from islamic forbidden elements such as gambling, uncertainty and interest. as an insurance business, (takaful) is perceived as a cooperative insurance, where by members will contributes a certain percentage of money to a common fund with not profits expectation but to support the principle of “bear ye one another’s policy reforms in nigerian health sector and the potential for poverty reduction suleiman et al. 11 burden." based on this, the main principles of takaful insurance are as follows:  every policy holder pays some percentages to a common takaful fund  losses are shared and liabilities spread among participants as any participant suffering illness would receive a certain sum of money or financial benefit from takaful fund as defined in the insurance agreement.  all transactions and commercial activity of takaful must be in accordance with the islamic principles and in compliance with the shariah (islamic laws).  uncertainty is minimized in respect of subscription and compensation by implementing the concept of tabarru (denotation). thus each participant shall agree to give certain portion of his takaful instalment as “a donation”.  an insurance company is established as manager of the takaful operations and is allowed to charge a management fee for takaful transactions.  the takaful fund, consisting of the premiums paid as donations, is further invested by the company incompliance with the shariah law with no element of interest (riba) involved. the investment profit will be shared on agreed ratio. this surplus is normally distributed on expiry of each insured’s insurance policy.  if the participant’s payments and investment are insufficient to meet these changes, those affected assured could be assessed for additional contributions. therefore, the above key issues reflect the basic differences between takaful and conventional insurance. the health sector reform through insurance in saudi arabia was clearly based on islamic perspectives because of the shariah legal system operated in the country. in the case of nigeria this policy cannot be implemented due to the secular nature of the country. the saudi government successfully implemented that policy and derived great achievement in the health sector reform. the programme of health insurance in saudi arabia contributed positively on certain sectors of saudi economy, which include insurance industry, private health care business and job market. speaking at the symposium entitled “health insurance conference options and prospects” organized by the ministry of health on 2011, the saudi’s minister of health pointed out that the main aim of applying cooperative health insurance in the saudi kingdom is to improve and develop the health sector according to the sound principles of “islamic religion and culture” without burdening the citizens, as in the case of many other countries. he also stated that there should be more efforts to identify the concept, the purposes and the consequences of insurance, to differentiate between commercial health insurance and cooperative health insurance, and to know that the concept of insurance is not necessarily associated with the privatization of the health sector. the experience of developed countries demonstrated clearly that the implementation of commercial health insurance and the privatization of the health sector, led to increasing costs of health care” in our opinion, the relatively short experiences of the saudi health sector demonstrated the strong need to a comprehensive public health insurance coverage. with the respect to takaful insurance sector , our opinions is that the application of cooperative health insurance noble principles can assist in reducing health care cost if this sector is re-structured and regulated (second annual report, 2008). 7. objectives of policy reform in nigeria to strengthen the national health system in order to provides effective, efficient, quality, accessible and affordable health services that will improve the health status of nigerians through the achievement of the policy reforms in nigerian health sector and the potential for poverty reduction suleiman et al. 12 health-related agencies. the main goals of health policy targets are the same as the health targets of the millennium development goals, (mdgs) namely:  reduce by two-thirds, between 1990 and 2015, the under-5 mortality rate;  reduce by three-quarters, between 1990 and 2015, the maternal mortality rate;  to have halted, by 2015, and begun to reverse the spread of hiv/aids;  to have halted, by 2015, and begun to reverse the incidence of malaria and other major diseases.  health and access to quality and affordable health care is a human right;  to provides equity in health care service for all nigerians is a goal to be pursued;  primary health care (phc) shall remain the basic viewpoint and strategy for national health development;  good quality health care shall be assured through cost-effective interventions that are targeted at priority health problems;  a high level of efficiency and accountability shall be maintained in the development and management of the national health system;  effective partnership and collaboration between various health actors shall be pursued while safeguarding the identity of each; further, attempts have been made to address the issues of payment, financing, organization, regulation, and behaviour which are fundamental to health system performance. within each of the strategic thrusts for the reform programme, a number of priority health sector performance issues have been identified for focused interventions, because of their recognized sector-wide effects. these thrusts have been carefully selected and priority actions outlined such that the implementations of relevant activities will logically lead to improved health outcomes. the priority areas include the following: reduced disease burden with major focus on hiv/aids, tuberculosis, malaria and vaccine-preventable childhood diseases, reduction in child mortality and indisposition, improved maternal health, and increased life expectancy through improved health behaviour and improved service provision. the selection of priority activities was made on evidence-based platform, taking into consideration the contribution of each group of health problem to the overall health status of nigerian and the cost-effectiveness of available interventions. overall priority focus was on the diseases and health problems that are responsible for most illnesses and mortalities among nigerian population groups. this is with the desire to positively impact the greatest number of people within the shortest possible time. such an approach has the potentials to positively affect the landscape of health and wellness of the population such that they can be more health to pursue their productive enterprises and earn improved incomes also, the money that would otherwise have been spent on ill-health and hospital bills can be used to improve the nutrition and general living condition of individuals and households, as well as improve savings and investment which would contribute to poverty reduction among the people. in the case of malaria it covered the strategic area by reducing the disease burden attributable to priority health problems. malaria is a leading cause of death among children and also has negative impact on the outcome of pregnancy, including premature delivery and delivery of low birth babies. malaria also causes blood shortage (anemia) in pregnant women. in addition, malaria reduces productivity in all ages, thereby contributing to decreased academic performance of school children and lower earning of the adult. under the reform process, and based on evidence of cost-effectiveness impact, the strategy is to particularly address malaria through policy reforms in nigerian health sector and the potential for poverty reduction suleiman et al. 13 preventive measures such as provision of insecticide-treated bed nets. specific drugs are also to be provided to pregnant women as part of routine antenatal care to prevent malaria. thus, children will experience fewer incidents of malaria as they sleep under bed nets and the family will therefore spend less on health problems in terms of money and time. the outcome of this will be greater possibility of savings and investment, which will eventually reduce the potentiality of poverty. other strategies are educating the mothers how to treat simple childhood health problems, recognize danger signs, and seek treatment early will also complement the preventive strategies such that even if the child develop malaria, he or she can be treated at the early stage to ensure early recovery. therefore, these strategies will lead to healthier adults, conceptually, with capacity for maximal productivity. 8. achievement of health sector reform in nigeria some of the achievement that have been made in the implementation of the hsr agenda include increased coverage of preventive interventions such as insecticide-impregnated as well as the provision of free artemisinin based combination therapies to treat malaria in children, and improved access to hiv testing facilities and anti-retroviral therapy. there is also increase in the access to vaccines to protect children from major killer diseases. increased resources have also been provided towards the achievement of the health-related millennium development goals, such as those targeting child and maternal health, and the control of hiv/aids and malaria. efforts to improve quality through enforcement of consumers’ rights and improving health behaviour through behaviour change interventions are also on going. while the implementation of these and other activities may not translate directly to improved health outcomes, they certainly have the potentials to contribute to improved health in nigeria substantially. 9. conclusion and recommendation it is clear that the process of change needs to extend beyond these and discussions of the ideological orientation of the health care system will be put in place. without institutional or structural change it is likely that existing organizational structures and management systems will not be able to strengthening the weak and fragile national health care delivery system and improving its performance. health sector reform will therefore be concerned with defining priorities, refining policies and reforming the institutions through which those policies are implemented. moreover, monitoring agency will be established in order to ensure the implementation of this policy efficiently and effectiveness. logic of appropriateness and holiness must be followed in order to have accountability and transparency in the implementation process. most of the time the issue of diverting medical equipment’s by the health personnel especially in the rural areas created a lot of problems in health care system, this can be solved through good supervision, monitoring and evaluation. secondly, the reform process and the difficulty of implementing policy and institutional change have been relatively neglected compared with the main objectives of the reform. this focus on content not only ignores the question of the possibility of implementing change, but runs the risk that health sector reform becomes equated with one particular set of prescriptions such as the introduction of managed-market mechanisms, user charges, reducing the size of the public sector, cost effective packages of services, and privatization. as a result the need for creative solutions to deal with urgent and intractable problems can easily get lost in discussions about the rights and wrongs of particular strategies. hence, there is need for rational debate and systematic analysis. in the first place, this requirement must be addressed by descriptive information on reforms using an organization that aids the analysis of the implementation and impact of reforms. that framework will provides a synthesis of the benefits and shortcomings of reforms that can assist the country’s attempts at producing better health from the policy reforms in nigerian health sector and the potential for poverty reduction suleiman et al. 14 level of investment. the implementation strategy needs to be carefully monitored judiciously. thus, the hsr has the potential as a health system intervention to break the vicious cycle of ill-health, poverty and under-development through improved health outcome and translate it into a good cycle of improved health status, prosperity and sustainable development. lastly, the main solution to the problem of policy reform and administrative responsibility is implementing the islamic values and ethical administrative behaviour that can provides accountability and transparency based on the principles of (shariah) the qur’anic command of enjoining what is good and forbidding what is evil. according to islamic scholars public servants must do what is good and refrain from doing what is evil. this can be done through internal motivation of one’s relationship with allah in performing the task assigned to him. iman (taqwa), activates and reinforces innate goodness, inculcate humility, and leads to moral values in doing things. it encourage the good in human nature which in turn produces a balance set of needs within human self’s to self-own needs and self’s need to do good and serve other people (lamine, and lili, presentation, 2014). the next step is doing justice, according to qur’an “justice is giving to others their due and not harming them even when one’s own or one’s relative’s interests are at stake…” (q4:135). the last step is ihsan it is closely related with iman, it means worshipping allah as if you see himeven though you do not see him, he sees you. hence the administrator should be conscious that he is being observed and is motivated to strive for the best of conduct. it also leads to selflessness. qur’an says “and those who strive for us we will surely guide them to our ways. and indeed, allah is with the doers of good. (q: 29:69). references berman, peter.(nd) health sector reform: making health development sustainable. federal ministry of health.( 2004). report of proceeding of 52nd national council of health. federal ministry of health.(2010). report of proceeding of 53rd national council of health. lamine, and lili presentation.(2014) national bureau of statistics.( 2005). poverty profile for nigeria, abuja. omoruan, a. i., bamidele, a.p. & phillips, o.f.(2009). social health insurance sustainable health care reform in nigeria. ethno-med, 3 (2); 105-110.conference “options & prospects” ministry of health. sharif, abdullah i. (2011). secretary general council of co-operative health insurance, “compulsory health insurance way forward”, health insurance conference –“options & prospects” ministry of health. shehu u. (2000). health systems reforms: the challenges for community physicians.paper delivered at the annual conference of the association of community physicians of nigeria, jos 2002. the second annual report.(2008).cooperative health insurance council,ministry of health, riyadh saudi arabia. world bank development report.(1993). investing in health. new york: oxford university press. world health organisation. world health report. (2000). health systems: improving performance. geneva, who world wide web : www.cchi.gov.sa (council of co-operative health insurance july 2011. copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. american economic & social review; vol. 3, no. 1; 2018 issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 impact factor: 3.9 published by centre for research on islamic banking & finance and business, usa 32 unemployment and output growth: evidence from upper-middleincome countries in sub-saharan africa ihensekhien orobosa abraham ph.d department of economics, banking and finance benson idahosa university, benin city, edo state, nigeria email: oihensekhien@biu.edu.ng phone: +2348035843175 aisien leonard nosa ph.d department of economics, banking and finance benson idahosa university, benin city, edo state, nigeria email: lasien@biu.edu.ng received: november 6, 2018 accepted: november 10, 2018 online published: november 16, 2018 abstract several studies have found a negative relationship between unemployment rate and output growth rate. but such has not been ascertained concerning upper middle-income countries in sub-saharan africa (ssa). hence this paper examined this relationship using panel least squares and ordinary least squares estimation techniques based on annual series data from 1991 to 2017. the paper observed that the average output growth rate for upper middleincome countries in ssa in the period of the study was 6.36% while that of the unemployment average rate was 15.87%. the results of the panel least squares estimation reveals the existence of negative relationships between unemployment rate and output growth rate. in the country specific study, results from botswana, gabon, mauritius and south africa shows a positive relationship between unemployment and output growth rates revealing a case of non-inclusive growth. however, equatorial guinea and namibia data on unemployment and output growth had negative relationships. the counter factual analyses conducted on the unemployment variable in term of some percentage reduction indicated that as more persons are employed there will be an increase in output growth. the findings, therefore suggests that the government should create more jobs based on labour intensive industries in upper middle-income countries in ssa, that the ratio of output growth needed to maintain stable level of unemployment rate could be sustained when there are boost in economic activities. countries in upper middleincome in ssa that exhibited positive relationship between unemployment rate and output growth rate should concentrate more on how to increase the level of output growth rate through the boost in economic activities. governments of these upper middle-income countries should have good policy mix focused on the reduction of unemployment at all levels. keywords: upper middle-income countries, unemployment, output growth, counter factual analysis, okun’s law. 1. introduction the sub-saharan africa (ssa) consists of all african states that are partially or fully located south of the saharan desert (united nations, 2011). the ssa population is currently estimated at 936.1 million people and the ssa region is made up of forty eight countries (world bank, 2018). the international labour organization (ilo) report for 2017 indicated that the number of unemployed persons worldwide will hit over 201 million persons in 2017, with additional 2.7 million persons expected in 2018. the survey indicated that the third world countries, especially africa is expected to be worst hit, where the number of the unemployed and poverty are high. the challenges of high unemployment rate and slow output growth are not only experienced by the developing countries by however, the developed countries over the years have adopted good economic and political policies to reduce the level of unemployment. in the developing countries unemployment mailto:oihensekhien@biu.edu.ng mailto:lasien@biu.edu.ng www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 3, no. 1; 2018 33 challenges does not only constitute a high private cost for the individual, it is a huge cost to the government (sachisi-marco, 2011; abel, bernanke & croushore, 2008; ihensekhien & ovenseri-ogbomo, 2017). ihensekhien etal (2017) observed that the average gdp growth rate for low income countries in ssa stood at 3.8 and the unemployment average rate was 5.9 in the time frame of 1991-2013. there empirical observation agrees with that of okun (1962) that high rate of unemployment has been observed to affect the rate of output growth negatively. the unemployment level in a country also determines the economic well-being in the long run. the studies of romer and weil (1992) revealed that unemployment can be an inhibitor to output growth in a country, in terms of deterioration of human capital resulting on a negative effect on output leading to lost of future income and saving which are harmful to output growth. obadan and iyoha (1996) opined that the national economic objectives of any country is the attainment of full employment (reduction of unemployment to a minimum level) in order to have rapid output growth over time. according to nkurunziza and bates (2004) and ihensekhien (2016) the ssa countries output growth rates was observed to be not high enough to make true impact in the pervasive unemployment rates that would enable the ssa countries to catch up with other developing countries of the world in the nearest future. world bank (2018) development indicators based on income group classification of countries revealed that the following ssa countries are upper middle income countries: botswana, gabon, equatorial guinea, mauritius, namibia and south africa. below are some basic economic facts of this upper middle in countries in ssa: botswana is ranked as the 2 nd among forty eight of ssa with high income, it has a population of 2.2 million people with an average gdp growth rate of 4.52%, average unemployment rate of 18.59%, inflation rate of 2.8%. equatorial guinea has a population of 1,324,762 million people with an average gdp growth rate of 20.19, average unemployment rate of 5.76%, a median age of 22.2 years and her life expectancy at birth is 57.68. gabon has a population of 1.5 million, inflation rate of -0.01%, average unemployment rate of 18.46%, crime index of 47.69 and safety index of 52.3 and gdp growth rate of 2.28%. mauritius is made up of a population of 1.3 million with average gdp growth rate of 5.51 %, average unemployment rate of 8.31% and inflation rate of 1.0%. namibia has a mean unemployment rate of 20.52%, inflation rate of 6.5%, a human population of 2.3million and gdp growth of 4.18%. south africa is the second largest economy in ssa; it is an industrialized economy, with a population of 55.9 million, an average unemployment rate of 23.61 %, inflation rate of 6.3% and a mean gdp growth rate of 2.45%. south africa has a safety index of 23.37 that is considered low but with a high quality of life index of 135.57 (world bank, 2018). the economic conditions of the upper middle income countries in ssa are marred with high incidence of crimes, poverty, and low quality of life, severe economic and social costs of all kinds as a result of high rate of unemployment. however, the empirical study of okun’s has been verified in many countries, but this has not been verified in upper middle income countries in ssa based on the recent classification of countries into income group by the world bank(2018). hence, there exists a gap the literature with respect to the relationship between changes in unemployment and output growth in the upper middle income countries in ssa. the statement of the problem and the identified research gap led to raised the following objectives of this paper: to evaluate the empirical nexus between unemployment and output growth, to ascertain the rate of output growth ratio required to maintain minimum level of unemployment rate, also the counter-factual impact of unemployment rate reduction based on 5%, 7.5%, 10% and so on the output growth. the timeframe of the paper covers a period of 1991-2017. the paper is therefore divided into the following sections: section one is the introduction, literature review is in section two, section three contains the theoretical framework and methodology, section four is the presentation and the analyses of results and section five contains the summary, conclusion and recommendations. 2. literature review 2.1conceptual issues the international labour organization (ilo, 2010) defines unemployed workers as those persons who presently do not work but who are willing to work, hence, seeking for a job. the unemployment rate in a country is the number of persons that are unemployed and is expressed as the percentage of the total labour force. the term unemployment is a stock concept considered at a point in time. its level rises when inflow that is, the newly unemployed exceed outflows, that is people getting new jobs or quitting the labour force altogether. unemployment is the difference between the quantity of labour employed at the going wage levels and working conditions at a given period and the quantity of labour not hired at these levels. gbosi (1993) defined unemployment as a situation in which citizens who are willing to work at the current wage rate are unable to find jobs in a given economic environment. traditionally unemployment can be identified by types due to it cause. therefore, economists often classified unemployment into frictional, structural, classical and demand-deficiency (keynesian). frictional unemployment occurs from the time it takes an individual to move between jobs; this also results from a normal turnover of labour. www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 3, no. 1; 2018 34 people who are unemployed while searching for jobs are referred to be frictionally unemployed. this situation is widespread in the sub-saharan africa region due to low wage rates and the problems associated with the issues of betterworking conditions. the concept of economic growth (output growth) according to todaro (1985) is viewed as a long -term rise in capacity to supply increasingly diverse economic goods to its population; this growing capacity is based on advancing technology and ideological adjustments that it demands. it is highly believed that economic growth leads a given population of a country to enjoy a better standard of living and improved life expectancy. fogel (1997) opined that economic growth refers to rising per-capita income and part of this increased income is translated into the consumption of higher quantity and better quality nutrients. through nutrition, health is measured by life expectancy responds to increases in income, reduction in unemployment level that will help reduced poverty in the long-run. according to dwivedi (2008) another prerequisite of economic growth is that the national output is composed of such goods and services which satisfy the maximum wants of the greatest number of people. for economic growth to be genuine, the increase in output must be sustained over a long period. the short-run increase followed by a similar decrease in output does not mean economic growth. the discovery of a strong empirical relationship between output growth (economic growth rate) and changes in the unemployment rate as postulated by okun’s seminal paper of 1962 has become one of the most consistent relationship in macroeconomics (adachi, 2007). okun (1962) found that the relationship between unemployment and economic growth was both inverse and proportional. this precisely states that, a three percent increase in economic growth should result in a one percent decrease in the unemployment rate. the subject of the negative relationship between unemployment rate and economic growth rate as postulated and empirically tested by okun in the early 1960s has evolved from both statistical and empirical relationship that is known as empirical law called okun’s law that predicts a negative relationship between the rate of change in unemployment and the rate of change in output growth. okun (1962) postulated that a one percent increase in the output growth rate above the trend rate of growth (or the growth in potential output) would lead only to 3 percent in the reduction of unemployment. reversing the causality, a one percent increase in unemployment will mean roughly more than three percent loss in output growth. this relationship indicates that the rate of output growth must be equal to its potential growth just to keep the unemployment rate constant. to reduce unemployment, therefore, the rate of output growth must be above the growth rate of potential output. (khemraj, madrick & semmler, 2006). 2.2 theoretical literature 2.2.1 theoretical integration between output growth and unemployment the debate concerning the theoretical integration between output growth and unemployment is considered as something possible and even desirable (arico, 2001). the theoretical perspective of economic growth and unemployment began with the seminal works of harrod (1939) and domar (1947), followed by the works of solow (1956) model. the issue of the long-run unemployment was totally ruled out in the neoclassical growth models which are seen as a basic tool for investigating economic expansion. in order to have extensive explanation and literature on the issues about economic growth and unemployment this could be traced to the studies of frankelromer on the ak approach to endogenous growth and the second model by romer based on labour augmented where technical knowledge is found to enhance productivity. endogenous growth and unemployment as used by pissarides (1993) based on the benchmark of romer (1986) and the neo-schumpeterian approach to growth and employment by aghion and howitt (1994). 2.2.2 review of empirical and methodological literature table 1: summary of empirical evidence on the relationship between output growth rate and unemployment rate and the methodology adopted. s/n names of authors and year of studies no. of countries period dependent variable(s) independent variable(s) methodology okun’s coefficient obtained 1 prachowny (1993) 1(united states) 1975q11988q4 output growth gap capacity utilization gap, unemployme nt gap laboursupply gap ols(first difference and production method) -0.62 and 0.67 www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 3, no. 1; 2018 35 and hours gap 2 weber (1995) 1(united states) 1948q11988q4 unemployme nt gap and output gap output gap and unemployme nt gap ols,ardl, var and rolling ols -0.32, -0.22 and -0.26 3 moosa (1997) 7(united states, france, japan, united kingdom, canada, italy and germany) 19601995 unemployme nt gap lagged unemployme nt gap and output gap ols ,rolling ols and sur -0.49 and 0.09 4 lee(2000) 16 oecd countries and germany 19551999, 19602006 output gap unemployme nt gap panel least squares(pls) (first difference and hp filter -0.22 5 harris & silverstone(2001 ) 6( canada, japan, us, ,australia, new zealand and uk) 1978q11998q3 unemployme nt rate output rate ecm(first difference) -0.09 and 0.5 6 geldenhuys & marinkov (2007) 1( south africa) 19702005 output gap unemployme nt gap hp , bn and bp filters -0.24, -1.09, -0.17 and -0.78 7 amassoma & nwosa (2013) 1(nigeria) 19862010 productivity growth unemployme nt, labour force, capital, inflation and government expenditure co integration and ecm 1.12 and 1.35 8 akeju & olanipekun (2014) 1(nigeria) 19802012 unemployme nt gap output gap co integration and ecm 0.097 and 0.069 9 adachi (2007) 2( japan and us) 19692000 output unemployme nt ols(first difference) -6.18 and -1.81 10 tombolo & hasegawa (2014) 1(brazil) 1980q12013q3 unemployme nt output ols (first difference ) -0.1878 -0.2055 11 kargi (2013) 34 oecd countries 1987 2012 unemployme nt output ols(first difference) -0.27 12 boulton (2010) 10(eastern european countries) 19912008 real gdp unemployme nt ols (first difference) 0.83, -4.2, -3.44, www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 3, no. 1; 2018 36 poland, romania, slovakia, slovenia, bulgaria, czech republic, hungary, latvia and lithuania -4.54, 2.71, 0.26, -5.44, 1.87 and -2.74 13 madito & khumalo (2014) 1(south africa) 1967q12013q4 economic growth rate unemployme nt rate vecm(first difference) -0.618 14 ho(2002) 1(macau) 19932001 output unemployme nt ols(first difference) -1.6951 15 andrei (2009) 1(romania) 24q000 q1-2008 output gap unemployme nt gap ols -0.493 16 hutengs & stadtmann (2012) euro zone unemployme nt gdp ols(first difference -0.034, 0.91, -0.75 and -0.234 18 zanin & marra (2012) 9(spain, portugal, the netherlands, italy, ireland, greece, finland, austria and france 19962009 unemployme nt real gdp growth ols and rolling ols(first difference) -0.34, -0.14, -0.19,-0.05,0.31,-0.07,0.12, -0.32 and-0.10 19 barreto & howland (1993) 1(japan) 19531982 unemployme nt output output unemployme nt ols(first difference) -0.032 -9.46 20 tatoglu (2011) 19 european countries 19772008 unemployme nt output output unemployme nt panel co integration and panel ecm 0.003, 0.007, -0.087, -0.075 21 ozel & sezgin (2013) 7{industrial countries(g 7)} 20002011 unemployme nt rate growth rate and productivity panel least squares, fixed and random effects -0.351, -0.250 22 khemraji ; madrick & semmler (2006) 4(us, france, uk and germany 19612000 output unemployme nt ols(first difference) -9.83, -3.12, -4.36, -5.67 23 elshamy (2013) 1(egypt) 19702010 output unemployme nt ols,ecm(g ap model) -0.021 24 salman (2012) 1(sweden) 1993q12011q2 gdp growth rate total unemployme nt, female and male unemployme nt ols(first difference) -0.076, -0.084, -0.079 www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 3, no. 1; 2018 37 25 ihensekhien (2016) 42(ssa countries) 19912013 unemployme nt gdp growth rate panel least squares and ols -0.049 26 ihensekhien & erhi (2016) nigeria 19912015 gdp growth rate total unemployme nt rate, youth unemployme nt rate, male unemployme nt rate and female unemployme nt rate ols 53.45 1041 26.23 14.03 27 ihensekhien & asekome (2017) 23(low income countries in ssa) 19912013 youth unemployme nt rate gdp growth rate panel least squares and ols -0.171 28 ihensekhien& ovenseriogbomo (2017) 23 (low income countries in ssa) 19912013 total unemployme nt rate gdp growth rate panel least squares and ols -0.075 29 mojica, & tatlonghari, (2017) philippines economy 1990q32014q3, 1990q32005q3, 2005q32014q# unemployme nt rate gdp growth rate ols -0.85 -0.92 -0.70 source: author’s compilation 2018 3. theoretical framework and methodology 3.1theoretical framework the relationship between economic growth and the unemployment rate based on theoretical linkage could be traced to one school of economic thought or the other. the classical economist’s school of thought believed that the connection between economic growth and unemployment is a one-way linkage that exists between the inputs of labour to economic growth. kaldor (1967) as cited in obadan and odusola (2000) in invoking the verdoorn’s law states that faster growth of output is responsible for a faster growth of productivity. the positive relationship that exists between employment and economic growth was also confirmed by dernburg and mcdougall (1985). also from the view of the classical economists referring to cobb-douglas production function based on the technical links between output and the inputs such as labour and capital. the model indicated that the level of labour force assuming other variable is assumed to be constant help to determine the growth rate of output. from the keynesian economists’ angle, the issue of output and unemployment is explained in terms of aggregate demand. the keynesians believed that the demand for labour as a case of derived demand. the keynesian theoretical linkages for economic growth and unemployment as analyzed by hussain and nadol (1997), thirlwal (1997) and grill and zanalda (1995) implies that increase in employment, technological change and investment are largely endogenous. in a nut-shell, the growth of employment/unemployment is the determinants of long term increase in economic growth influenced by the level of unemployment/employment rate of a country. the theoretical connection of economic growth and unemployment began with the works of harrod (1936), domar (1947) and solow (1956) in their investigation of the issue of the long-run unemployment in influencing the level of economic growth. the extention of the keynesian model could be found in the studies of okun (19962). theoretically okun’s law establishes the linkages between economic growth rate and unemployment rate, which he ascertained empirically to be negative. okun’s law is seen as a benchmark for determining the economic well-being of a country. the economic implication of the okun’s coefficient is that a 1 % reduction in the unemployment rate would result in 3 % or more increase in the level of economic growth rate of a country. however, okun’s law shows clearly a direct www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 3, no. 1; 2018 38 link between economic growth rate and the unemployment rate. hence, to determine a given level of the unemployment, what level of economic growth should the policymakers/government expect based on the sample periods for a given study. 3.2 methodology this paper adopted the use of annual data covering a cross-section of six upper middle income countries in ssa as classified by the recent development indicators of the world bank (2018). the timeframe of this study covers a period of 1991-2017. the paper applied the use of annual time series to determine the relationship between changes in unemployment rate and output growth rate among the upper middle income countries in ssa inorder to ascertain whether okun’s law is applicable in these countries. panel least squares and the ordinary least squaers estimation methods was applied in this paper. the use application of annual data were observed in the studies of moosa (1997), viren (2001) and ihensekhien etal (2016 and 2017) 3.2.1 model specification adopted the use of the first difference version of okun’s, the difference version has been applied in many empirical studies due to its purely statistical and simple calculations which can be directly evaluated from the available empirical data. (hilmer & hilmer, 2014).the studies of barreto and howland (1993) revealed that the direction of the regression equation, that is the output growth regressed on unemployment or unemployment regressed on output growth is ascertained by the researcher’s research question. hence, this study okun’s equation in terms of the first difference is stated as:   ttttt eogrogruneune   11  (1) inorder to express the crosssectional nature of the equation (1) above, this equation is respecified as:   tititititi eogrogruneune ,1,,1,,    (2) where = 1, 2, 3, 4 m, countries. t = 1, 2, 3, n, years. where: unei, t = the observed unemployment rate of countries i. tiogr , = the gdp growth rate (output growth rate) of upper middle-income countries in ssa.  = the intercept, which indicates the average output growth of full-employment output (potential output).  = the okun’s coefficient, which was estimated by okun to be negative (β<0). the term  shows the variation in changes in output growth rate as a result of a unit change in unemployment rate. tie , = error term. the error term is assumed to contain some different information such as factors affecting the dependent variable that are not used as the independent variables, specification errors, and the issues concerning the inherent randomness in human character (hilmer etal, 2014). the equation (2) is re-specified to include logarithms since the study is interested in the percentage change in terms of output growth rate and unemployment rate:   tititititi eogrogruneune ,1,,1,, loglogloglog    (3) the rate of output growth needed for a stable unemployment rate will be determined based on the formula: rate of output ratio           (4) equation (4) indicates the ratio of how much the economy of a country must grow to sustain a stable level of unemployment rate. the value   is the minimum level of output growth needed to reduce the unemployment rate (knotek, 2007). 4. presentation and analyses of results 4.1 presentation of empirical results. table 2: results of panel unit root tests method (at levels) ogr une levin,lin & chut** -5.33(0.000)* -0.069(0.472) im,pesaran and shin w-star -5.38(0.000)* -1.707(0.044) www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 3, no. 1; 2018 39 adf-fisher chi-square 51.39(0.000)* 20.419(0.059) pp-fisher chi-square 89.70(0.000)* 11.46(0.490) method (at first difference) ogr une levin,lin & chut** -1.050(0.147) im,pesaran and shin w-star -2.724(0.003)** adf-fisher chi-square 29.787(0.003)** pp-fisher chi-square 51.44(0.000)* author’s estimation results (2018) */** represents significance at 1% & 5% level. the results indicated that the t-statistic values obtained were found to be statistically significant when compared with the critical values for decision making on the the hypotheses which was also confirmed by the probability values represented in parentheses. table 2 showed that the unemployment variable was observed not to be stationary at levels but was stationary at the first difference hence the variables of output growth and unemployment were found to be statistically suitable for further statistical analyses and forecasting purpose. it means that the null hypothesis of the presence of non-ststionarity in the panel data series is rejected. table 3: panel least squares estimation results for the overall sample of upper middle-income countries in ssa. unemployment rate (une) as the dependent variable and output growth rate (ogr) as the independent variable. category of countries aog r aun e   tstat prob.val ue r  1 6 upper middle-income countries 6.36 15.87 16.77 3 0.142 4.05 * 0.000 118.1 7.04 5% reduction in une 15.08 15.95 4 0.135 4.05 * 0.000 118.2 7.41 7.5% reduction in une 14.68 15.51 5 0.131 4.05 * 0.000 118.4 7.63 10% reduction in une 14.29 15.09 6 0.127 4.05 * 0.000 118.9 7.87 15% reduction in une 13.49 14.25 7 0.120 4.05 * 0.000 118.8 8.33 20% reduction in une 12.70 13.41 8 0.113 4.05 * 0.000 118.7 8.85 50% reduction in une 7.94 8.387 0.071 4.05 * 0.000 118.1 14.0 9 source: author’s estimation results (2018) * represents significance at 1% level. note:  =intercept,  =okun’s coefficient, r=rate of output ratio=           the estimation results for the upper middle-income countries in ssa based on the first differenced equation using panel data method of panel least squares was used to determine the relationship between output growth rate (ogr) and unemployment rate (une). table 3 indicated that unemployment rate is negatively related to output growth rate and the t-statistic value was found to be statistically significant. the okun’s coefficient for upper middle-income countries in ssa indicated the negative relationship of the variables used as shown in table 4.1.2 with okun’s coefficient of -0.142 indicates that a one percent decrease in unemployment led to 0.142 percent increase in output www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 3, no. 1; 2018 40 growth rate and the needed rate of output growth for stable unemployment for the upper middle-income countries is 118.1 and the okun’s inverse (  1 ) of 7.04 indicated that as unemployment rate falls by one percent output growth would increased by 7.04 percent within the period. however, counter factual analyses were conducted based on some percentage reduction in the unemployment rate the result obtained indicated that as more persons are employed the level of output would increase. based on the empirical results obtained as shown in table 4.1.2 using the t-statistic and the probability values indicated that okun’s law is applicable in the upper middleincome countries of ssa since it is statistically significant. hence, this led to the empirical investigation of individual countries that made up the upper middle-income countries in ssa to ascertain whether okun’s law is applicable in these countries; the results are shown in table 4. table 4: ols estimation results for upper middle income countries in ssa. unemployment rate (une) as the dependent variable and output growth rate (ogr) as the independent variable. countries aogr aune   t-stat prob. value r ar  1 botswana 4.52 18.59 18.27 0.072 0.594 0.558 253.8 -9.4 13.88 equatorial guinea 20.19 5.76 5.76 0.016 -0.009 0.992 360 13.3 62.5 gabon 2.28 18.46 18.17 0.129 2.201** 0.037 140.9 -5.22 7.75 mauritius 5.51 8.31 7.74 0.125 1.113 0.276 61.92 -2.29 8.00 namibia 4.18 20.52 20.86 0.083 -0.714 0.482 251.3 9.31 12.05 south africa 2.45 23.61 23.43 0.069 0.265 0.793 339.6 12.58 14.49 source: author’s estimation results (2018) where: ** represents significance at 5% level. aune= average unemployment rate aogr= average output growth rate  intercept term  = okun’s coefficient rate of output ratio ( r )           ar= average rate of output ratio for the period of study table 4 contains six upper middle-income countries out of which two of the countries ols results revealed the expected negative relationship between output growth rate and unemployment rate. however, only one country out of the six upper middle income countries had her individual t-statistic value to be statistically significant at 5% as reflected in table 4. however, the empirical results in table 4 indicated the non existence of okun’s law in these countries contrary to the panel least squares result. it was observed that the okun’s coefficients for some of these countries had very low magnitude and the results further indicated that okun’s coefficient varies among countries as a result of the level of the influence of the unemployment rate on output growth rate. a comparison of the average output growth rate (aogr) variable for upper middle income countries of 6.36 revealed that some countries within the upper middle income group falls below the calculated average in countries such as botswana had 4.52, gabon 2.28, mauritius 5.51, namibia 4.18 and south africa 2.45 except equatorial guinea that had a high average output growth rate of 20.19. the calculation of the rate of output growth rate needed for stable unemployment rate shows that some countries in the upper middle income group in ssa has to grow at a very higher rate as observed in equatorial guinea and namibia this was also revealed in the average ratio of the output growth needed to sustain a minimum level of unemployment rate in these countries, which implies a serious threat to economic, political as well as social interests of these countries due to increasing unemployment situations. www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 3, no. 1; 2018 41 the issue of the positive relationship regarding empirical signs observed in south africa, equatorial guinea, gabon and mauritius between output growth rate and unemployment rate follows the argument of saint-paul (1993), davis and haltiwanger (1992) while bean and pissarides (1993) indicated that the bivariate correlation between output growth rate and unemployment rate can be either positive or negative depending on the economic structure and the magnitude of growth. the work of aghion and howitt (1994) agreed that high rates of economic growth are negatively correlated with unemployment and low rates of economic growth are positively correlated with unemployment. the issues of the positive empirical sign were also observed in some of the low income countries category such as guinea-bissau, guinea, niger and zimbabwe these countries were observed to have low economic growth rate that could be responsible for such factors as poverty, underutilization of natural and mineral as well low human resources development (ihensekhien &asekome, 2017). 5. summary, conclusions and recommendations the paper reflects the empirical relationship between unemployment rate and output growth rate in upper middleincome countries in ssa. annual data series covering a time frame of 1991 to 2017 period based on six upper middle-income countries in ssa region were evaluated based on a balanced panel data series where panel least squares was employed and that of the individual countries were the ordinary least squares techniques were employed to test the empirical estimation. the various statistical as well as empirical results were quite revealing indicating the inverse relationship between output growth rate and unemployment rate variables in the panel least squares result, however, some countries had positive relationships instead of the negative relationships, which further indicated the non existence of okun’s relationship and applicability within some upper middle -income countries in ssa. the paper study also shows that the okun’s coefficients vary across countries in terms of its coefficient magnitude. also a counter factual analyses were conducted based on some percentage reduction in the unemployment rate, the empirical evidence indicated the needed to reduced unemployment level in order to boost output growth in these upper middle-income countries in ssa. from the various findings of the paper, the following are therefore recommend: that the governments of these upper middle-income countries should promote more jobs creation in order to boost the level of economic activities in these countries that the government should encouraged investment that are based on labour intensive employment opportunities. governments of these upper middle-income countries should have good policy mix focused on the reduction of unemployment at all levels. references abel, a.b., bernanke, b.s., & croushore, d., (2008). macroeconomics. boston: pearson education inc. adachi, h., (2007). economic growth and unemployment: theoretical foundations of okun’s law. review of economics and statistics. aghion p., & howitt, p., (1994). “growth and unemployment”, review of economic studies 61, 477-94. akeju, k.f., & olanipekun, d.b., (2014). unemployment and economic growth in nigeria. journal of economic and sustainable development, 5(4), 138-144. amossoma, d., & nwosa, p.i., (2013). the impact of unemployment rate in productivity growth in nigeria: an error correction modeling approach. international journal of economics and management sciences. 2(28), 1-13 arico, f.r., (2001). growth and unemployment towards a theoretical integration. review of economic studies 96, 1-41 barreto, h., & howland, f. 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(2006). growth and development: with special reference to developing economies. 8 th edition, new york, palgrave macmillan todaro, m.p., (1985). economic development in the third world, london. tombolo, g.a., & hasegawa, m.m., (2014). okun’s law: evidence for the brazilian economy, on line at http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/54766/ united nations (2011). world population prospect. the 2010 revision, new york, un population division. viren, m. (2001). the okun’s curve is non-linear. economics letters, 70, 253-257 weber, c.e., (1995). cyclical output, cyclical unemployment and okun’s coefficient. a new approach. journal of applied econometrics, 433-445. world bank (2013). world bank’s development indicators, washington d.c: world bank. world bank (2014) world development indicators, washington d.c: world bank. world bank (2018) world development indicators, washington d.c: world bank zanin, l., & marra, g., (2011). rolling regression versus time-varying coefficient modeling: an empirical investigation of the okun’s law in some euro area countries. bulletin of economic research, 64(1). copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. this is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) american economic & social review; vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 published by centre for research on islamic banking & finance and business 20 nigeria: does terrorism spring from economic conditions? emmanuel o. okon1 1department of economics, kogi state university, anyigba, kogi state, nigeria correspondence: department of economics, kogi state university, anyigba, kogi state, nigeria, e-mail: tonydom57@yahoo.com. tel: +2348023275716 received: january 2, 2018 accepted: january 8, 2018 online published: january 13, 2018 abstract over the last half-century, nigeria has become one of africa‟s three giants along with egypt and south africa, thereby gaining considerable clout on the regional and global arenas. it is africa‟s largest oil producer and recent finds ensure nigeria‟s significance in the energy market for the foreseeable future. but the country has an inability or an unwillingness to distribute economic resources and development programs equitably. the primary objective of this paper is to find out whether economic condition leads to domestic terrorism in the country, as the contemporary nigeria society is engulfed by terrible acts of terrorism. this paper uses annual data for the time period 1970-2016 and the multivariate regression results suggest that government expenditure hinders terrorism, whereas macroeconomic policies foster it. possible reasons for the outcomes and the policy implications of the findings were discussed. keywords: terrorism, economic deprivation, nigeria. 1. introduction nigeria is africa‟s most populous country and the 9th most populous country in the world. with an estimated population of 150 million, one in every five africans is a nigerian (unicef nigeria, 2007).the country has been undergoing explosive population growth and has one of the highest growth and fertility rates in the world. by un estimates, nigeria will be one of the countries responsible for most of the world's total population increase by 2050.nigeria is home to four large ethnic groups: fulani, hausa, igbo and yoruba and there are as many as 350 languages spoken across the country. the country has a federal system of administration with a federal capital territory (fct), 36 states and 774 local government areas. nigeria has one of the fastest growing economies in the world. petroleum and oil resources play a large role in the nigerian economy. the country is the 6th largest producer of petroleum in the world; it is the 8th largest exporter and has the 10 th largest proven reserves (unicef nigeria, 2007). while the revenues made from oil provide the largest source of income for nigeria, the country has become overly-dependent on its oil sector whereas other areas of the economy such as agriculture, palm oil production and coconut processing are in decline. nigeria possesses a stark dichotomy of wealth and poverty. in spite of the country‟s vast oil wealth, the majority of nigerians are poor with 71 per cent of the population living on less than one dollar a day and 92 per cent on less than two dollars a day(unicef nigeria, 2007).although the country is rich in natural resources, its economy cannot yet meet the basic needs of the people. such disparity between the growth of the gdp and the increasing poverty is indicative of a skewed distribution of nigeria‟s wealth (unicef nigeria, 2007). terrorism in nigeria is going out of hand. nigerians are generally religious inclined, hence the multiplicity of religious groups in the country, which in itself testifies to the sociopolitical and economic diversity of the nigerian society (naijagist, 2012). the main objective of this paper is to find out whether economic deprivation leads to terrorism in nigeria, consequent on that, suggestions to reduce the incidence of terrorism can be made. empirical studies investigating the root causes of terrorist incidents generally employ traditional cross sectional analysis, implicitly assuming the same economic, social and political environments for countries under consideration. this is a highly restrictive assumption and may result in heterogeneity bias. resorting to country studies rather than crosswww.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 21 country analysis may overcome such a heterogeneity bias. as such, following the introductory section, section 2 of this paper provides some stylize facts on the economic situation of nigeria and level of terrorist activities. a review of related literature is presented in section 3. the methodology of the study is discussed in section 4. an econometric analysis is presented in section 5 while section 6 presents the summary, conclusions and policy implications. 2. economy of nigeria and terrorism: facts and figures 2.1 overview of the economy nigeria‟s gdp (1990 constant price) rose from n9.9 trillion in 2003 to n18.6 trillion in 2007(anyanwu, 2008). it was the 49th largest economy in the world in 2006 (anyanwu, 2008). table 1 shows the structural changes that have taken place since 1960.overall; there was remarkable improvement in the economy in the nine years period, following the extensive reforms that were carried out by the government. agricultural and oil production accounted for 65.8 per cent of the gdp in 2007(anyanwu, 2008). services, wholesale and retail trade, manufacturing, and building and construction accounted for 16.2, 16.2, 4.0 and 1.7 per cent, respectively (anyanwu, 2008). the economy could therefore be regarded as agrarian and primary in nature. from the early 1970s, there was a shift from agrarian monoculture to dependence on another primary commodity – petroleum (also, see figure 1 for the structure of gdp) data from the national bureau of statistics indicated that the average inflation rate, year on year, averaged 24.4 per cent for the decade 1980-1989; rising to 30.2 per cent over the following decade, 1990-1990; but fell sharply to 13.1 per cent during 2000-2007(anyanwu, 2008). indeed, inflation rate fell persistently from 2004, recording single digit in 2006 and 2007. the deceleration in inflation has been attributed to the fiscal restraint adopted by the federal government, tight monetary policy and good agricultural harvest, resulting from good weather conditions and the various agricultural initiatives of the government. see table 2 for average growth rate of selected macroeconomic indicators for the period. table 1: structural change in gdp, 1960-2007 1960 1970 1981 1990 2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 agriculture 64.1 47.6 33.6 37.9 42.7 41.0 41.0 41.2 41.7 42.2 manufacturing 4.8 8.2 5.6 4.5 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 crude oil 0.3 7.1 29.2 30.6 26.0 26.5 25.7 24.2 21.8 19.4 building & construction na na 4.1 1.6 2.0 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 wholesale & retail na na 13.9 13.4 13.1 12.6 12.9 13.8 15.0 16.2 services na na 9.8 8.2 11.2 12.3 14.7 15.2 15.7 16.2 na = not available source: cbn annual report, various issues source: anyanwu(2008). www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 22 source: anyanwu(2008). figure 1: structure of gdp, 1960-2007 table 2: growth rate of selected macroeconomic indicators year growth rate of real gdp inflation (y-o-y) growth rate of index of agric prod. capacity utilization average (1980-1989) 2.2 24.8 7.2 45.0 average (1990-1999) 3.0 30.2 4.4 35.1 average (2000-2007) 6.2 13.0 4.9 46.4 source: anyanwu (2008) the nigerian economy slowed down from 7.4% growth in 2011 to 6.6% in 2012 (aeo, n.d.). the oil sector continues to drive the economy, with average growth of about 8.0%, compared to -0.35% for the non-oil sector (aeo, n.d.). agriculture and the oil and gas sectors continue to dominate economic activities and nigeria. the fiscal consolidation stance of the government has helped to contain the fiscal deficit below 3.0% of gross domestic product (gdp)(aeo, n.d.). this, coupled with the tight monetary policy stance of the central bank of nigeria (cbn), helped to keep inflation at around 12.0% in 2012 (aeo, n.d.). the outlook for growth remains positive (see table 3 for estimation of macroeconomic indicators for 2012 and projections for 2014). shortand mid-term downside risks include security challenges arising from religious conflict in some states, costs associated with flooding, slower global economic growth (particularly in the united states and china) and the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area. the economic growth has not translated into job creation or poverty alleviation. unemployment increased from 21% in 2010 to 24% in 2011 because the sectors driving the economic growth are not high job-creating sectors (the oil and gas sector, for example, is a capital intensive “enclave” with very little employment-generating potential)(aeo, n.d.). table 3: macroeconomic indicators 20112013 note: figures for 2012 are estimates; for 2013 and later are projections. source: aeo (n.d.) 2.2. terrorism nigeria, like many nations in africa, is not in short supply of groups and associations agitating for one thing or the other. historically, three waves of such groups are discernible in nigeria. the first of such groups existed even before colonial rule. they were the age-grades, guild associations and special interest groups performing one function after another in the overall engineering of their respective polities (oyeniyi, 2013). examples include ndinche, modewa, aguren, eso, akoda and ilari and so on. the second wave relates to groups, essentially based on kinship affinity, with presence in every part of nigeria, including the northern region, fernando po, and the gold macroeconomic indicators years 2011 2012 2013 2014 real gdp growth 7.4 6.6 6.7 7.3 real gdp per capita growth 4.9 4.1 4.2 4.8 cpi inflation 10.9 12 9.7 9.5 budget balance % gdp -0.1 3.7 4.4 5.7 current account % gdp 3.2 10.4 11.8 14.6 www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 23 coast. as coleman had noted, such groups were formed as people began moving from one area to the other in search of colonial jobs. as ethnic associations, they were based on strong loyalty and obligation to their kinship group, towns or villages. these associations were the „organizational expression of strong persistent feeling of loyalty and obligation to the kinship group, the town or village where the lineage is localized‟. examples include the calabar improvement league, owerri divisional union, igbira progressive union, urhobo renascent convention, naze family meeting, ngwa clan union, ijo rivers people‟s league, ijo tribe union, etc (oyeniyi, 2013). the third wave comprises of groups such as the o‟odua peoples‟ congress(opc), arewa youth consultative forum, movement for the actualization for the sovereign state of biafra, anambra state vigilante service, abia state vigilante service, imo state vigilante service, niger-delta volunteers force, ogoni youth, ijaw youth, bakassi boys, egbesu boys, onitsha traders organization and mambilla militia group (oyeniyi, 2013).several factors underlie the growth and development of groups of the third wave. economic recession of the 1980s, falling commodity prices, opec price increases, privatization, economic liberalization, deregulation, currency devaluation, cold war politics, trade barriers, civil conflict, etc. are some of the notable examples. these myriads of problems reduced government‟s ability to fund welfare projects. the impact of these policies ranged from job cuts, high inflation rates and unemployment to a burgeoning informal sector(oyeniyi, 2013). more recently, the activities of militant islamist sects, or at best evolving terrorist groups, in northern nigeria is now a growing source of security concern to western capitals. hitherto driving much of the attention is the ramping up of violent attacks on diverse civilian and military targets in nigeria by the jama‟atuahlissunnahlidda‟awatiwal jihad, or the boko haram, using such violent tactics like placement of improvised explosive devices (ieds), targeted assassination, drive-by shooting and suicide bombing (see tables 4, 5, and 6 in appendix). images of terrorist attacks in nigeria source: gstatic.com (n.d);kio-lawson and majekodunmiin (2011) 3. review of related literature enders and sandler (1993, 1999 and 2000) define terrorism as the premeditated use or threat to use violence by individuals or subnational groups against noncombatants to obtain political and social objectives through the intimidation of a large audience beyond that of immediate victims. empirical studies investigating the economic impact of terrorist incidents generally report that terrorist activities affect economic growth through various channels: it may lead to an increase in military expenditures (eckstein and tsiddon, 2004); an increase in production and transaction costs (frey et al. 2007); a decrease in tourism revenues (enders et al. 1992; yechiam et al. 2005); a decrease in savings (fielding 2003) and a decrease in foreign direct investment (fielding 2004). thus it is important to reveal the determinants of terrorism in order to be able to draft counter-terrorist measures (yildirima, öcalb and korucuc, 2010). existing studies trying to investigate the determinants of terrorism agree that terror can originate more easily in economically and politically under-developed countries and / or provinces (yildirima, öcalb and korucuc, 2010). several studies have already investigated the economic roots of terrorism. considering the supply side of terrorism, berrebi (2003) finds that high standards of living and educational levels are positively associated with participation in hamas and palestinian islamic jihad (pij) terrorist activities in israel. krueger and maleckova (2003) …find that the connection between poverty, education and terrorism is indirect, complicated and probably quite weak. a few studies on international terrorism …find that economic development and social welfare policies are important determinants terrorism (burgoon, 2006; li and schaub, 2004; li 2005). several cross-country studies have shown that terrorism has no economic roots. among these studies the most influential ones are abadie (2004) and krueger and laitin (2007). abadie (2004) shows that terrorist risk is not significantly higher in poor countries when we control for political freedom. the terrorist risk data used by abadie www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 24 (2004) includes information on the country of occurrence but not on the target countries and on the countries of origins of terrorism. therefore the data confounds between different types of terrorism (derin-gürey, 2009). the subject of this paper is domestic terrorism in nigeria; the perpetrators, victims, locationand nation match. the violence, in other words, concerns matters within the nation. yet, literature is not able to say categorically whether economic deprivationsexplain terrorism and empirical testing is largely absent or severely limited. domestic terrorism is by far the more common phenomenon (enders, et al. 2011; feldman and ruffle, 2008; kis-katos, et al. 2011; merari, 1999; piazza, 2011; sanchez-cuenca and de la calle, 2009) in nigeria. ironically, it is the least empirically studied. the purpose of this paper is to contribute to rectifying this shortcoming. 4. research design and strategy research design is the structure and strategy for investigating the relationship between the variables of the study. the research design adopted combines the theoretical consideration with empirical observation. it enables us therefore to observe the effects of explanatory variables on the dependent variables 4.1research domain this investigation about economic deprivation leading to terrorism was conducted in nigeria. the data spans the period 1970 to 2016 (46years). the data from this period present a considerable degree of freedom that is necessary to capture the net effect of explanatory variables on the dependent variables. 4.2 data sources secondary data were used for this study. the choice of these secondary sources is based on their authenticity and reliability. the data were obtained from the publication of central bank of nigeria, websites, journals and newspapers. in examining the data, the line graphs for the variables are presented in figure 2 (see appendix) and their descriptive statistics are shown in table 7 in appendix. the correlation matrix of the variables is shown table 8 (see appendix). 4.3 data processing technique to test for stationarity of the data, a general form of augmented dickey fuller (adf) (dickey and fuller 1979, 1981) regression is formed below: ∆yt = β yt-1 + 𝑚 𝑘=0 αi∆yt-i +φ + ʎt + εt…………..(1) where ∆y is the first difference of the series, mis the lag length,t is a time trend, εt is a white noise residual. the adf test is carried out by using the null hypothesisash0 :α2 = α3 = 0. the lag length used is relatively small to savedegrees of freedom and large enough to avoid the existence of autocorrelation inthe residual. 4.4. technique of analysis the method of study in this paper is both descriptive and analytical. the descriptive tools consist of the use of table and percentages. the analytical tool used is the ordinary least square regression analysis. the ols method is based on some assumptions (gujarati, 2003) which make the ols estimators to become blue (best linear unbiased estimator). some of the short comings of the ols method include the fact that while some of its assumptions are unrealistic (such as no autocorrelation, homoscedasticity and no multicollinearity); a single model as well cannot fully satisfy all the assumptions at a time. also, no single test can solve all the problems of this method at a time. moreover, the ols method cannot be applied to purely non-linear models such as ones that are non-linear in parameter. as a result of some of these short-comings, we use the ols method but correct the standard errors for autocorrelation by a newey-west method. the corrected standard errors are known as hac (heteroscedasticity – and autocorrelation-consistent) standard errors or simply as newey-west standard errors. to account for serial correlation, autoregressive (ar) term was also introduced. 5. estimation model the model was developed to access the effect of economic variables on terrorism in nigeria between 1970-2016. to achieve robust statistical analysis, potential economic predictors of terrorism such as inflation rate, gdp per capita, trade openness of the economy, government total expenditure, interest rate and policy index were included in the model. the specification is therefore given as: terr = ƒ(gdpc, open, infl, govx, intr, polx) ………..(2) equation(1) can be operationalised for the purpose of estimation into the following equations: terr = ɲ0+ɲ1gdpc +ɲ2open + ɲ3infl +ɲ4govx +ɲ5intr +ɲ6 polx + ȹt…..(3) where terr is a dummy variable which takes the value of 1 if terrorist attack occurs in a year and 0 if otherwise, gdpc is per capita gdp, infl is inflation rate, open is an indicator variable for trade openness,govx is www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 25 government total expenditure, intr is interest rate, polx is index of economic policy,ɲ0 is a constant term, ɲ1…ɲ5 are coefficients that will be estimated empirically and ȹis white noise, which is common to all econometric models given that by their nature, they are non-deterministic. most of the variables in the above equation are transformed into logarithm to facilitate easy estimation. the behavioral assumptions are stated as follows: ɲ1< 0, ɲ2< 0,ɲ3> 0,ɲ4< 0, ɲ5>0 ,ɲ6< 0 using the number of terrorist attacks per year or the number of victims per incident as dependent variable is quite common in terrorism research as this reflects more accurately the magnitude of terrorism risk. due to issues of data availability and reliability, the dependent variable used in this paper is the occurrence of terrorism (terr) and it is based on the chronological data on terrorism incidents in nigeria. the variable is constructed using binary. it takes the value of 1 if terrorist attack occurs in a year and 0 if otherwise. the information about the underlying distribution of terr is shown in the kernel density in figure 3(see appendix). concerning the independent variables, it is believed that economic development measured by gdp per capita (gdpc) reduces domestic terrorism. the openness variable measured as exports plus imports divided by gdp (x + m / gdp) is used as proxy for the level of trade between the economy and the rest of the world. the degree of openness (open) is commonly assumed to be a channel of economic growth; it indirectly reduces terrorism within a country. therefore it is expected to have the same sign of gdp per capita. inflation (infl) denotes the average annual change in consumer price index. on one hand, it proxies changes in purchasing power of individuals which can affect the standard of living eventually leading to terrorism. the formulation of sound economic policies ensures the overall stability of the economy. this necessitated the inclusion of policy index (polx) as an explanatory dummy variable. it represents the different regimes and their policy stance. it takes the value of 0 for military rule and 1 for civilian rule. it is a common belief that government plays a significant role in the development of a country. the implication is that an increase in government expenditure (govx) will yield a positive increase in the growth of the economy by increasing the national income, especially when it is injected in development programs (omoke, 2009) liking providing public (utilities) goods such as roads, communication, power, education and health. this is expected to discourage terrorism. interest rate (intr) could increase the probability of terrorist activities through the negative relationship between with investments. that is a fall in investment as a result of high interest could bring about unemployment and poverty which could encourage terrorism. 5.1 empirical result and discussion from the pairs wise correlation matrix in table 8 in appendix, terrorism (terr) and interest rate showed a highly positive correlation of about 0.71. this is followed by a strongly positive movement between government total expenditure (govx) and policy index (polx). other variables exhibited moderately weak correlation in general. the results of unit root test are contained in table 9 (see appendix). the results show that all the variables are stationary at first difference (d(1)). table 10 in appendix contains the multivariate regression results of the basic model from equation 3. the results indicate that in the table, some of the presumptive signs were correct apart from the log of gdp per capita, log of openness of the economy to trade, interest rate (log(intr) and policy index(polx), which showed a positive sign instead of a negative sign. the results indicate that log (infl)is statistically insignificant. with the exception of inflation variable, all the coefficients of the variables are statistically significant. however, there is serial correlation as indicated by a low durbin-watson statistic of1.445299. this necessitates the introduction of autoregressive (ar) term in the model and hence the estimation contained in table 11 which will be the focus of the discussion. the r 2 0.911515 implies that 91.15 percent of total variation in terrorism is explained by the regression equation. coincidentally, the goodness of fit of the regression remained high after adjusting for the degrees of freedom as indicated by the adjusted r2(r2=0.893298 or 8933%).the f-statistic 50.04, which is a measure of the joint significance of the explanatory variables, is found to be statistically significant at 1 percent as indicated by the corresponding probability value (0.000000). the durbin-watson statistic of 2.19 rules out autocorrelation. from table 11(see appendix), it can seen that the coefficients of log(infl), log(gdpc), log(intr), log(open) are far from being statistically significant. the results show that government expenditure has an adverse effect on terrorism. in nigeria, government expenditure has been on the rise owing to the huge receipts from production and sales of crude oil, and the increased demand for public (utilities) goods. with a negative and statistically significant coefficient, the result suggests that the increase in government total expenditure reduces terrorism. unfortunately, the rise in government expenditure has not translated into meaningful growth and development, as nigeria ranks among the poorest countries in the world (sevitenyi, 2012). in addition, many nigerians have continued to wallow in abject poverty, while more than 50 percent live on less than us$2 per day(sevitenyi,2012).couple with this, are dilapidated infrastructure (especially roads and power supply) that has led www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 26 to the collapse of many industries, including high level of unemployment and abandoned elephant projects. as such the result should be taken with caution. policy index variable has a positive and statistically significant relationship with terrorism. from 1960, when the nation gained independence, to 2013, nigeria experienced about twenty-five years of civilian, as opposed to military rule. the government‟s policy stance in the macro economy shows that there has been considerable fluctuation and that some bad habits e.g., deficit budgeting have been persistent. the implication of the result is that government policy stance ultimately affects the poverty level over the years. invariably, terrorism in nigeria is a direct consequence of the people‟s deep dissatisfaction with their government‟s macroeconomic policy. 6. conclusion and policy implication the primary objective of this paper is to find out whether economic condition leads to terrorism in the country, as the contemporary nigeria society is engulfed by terrible acts of terrorism. this paper used annual data for the time period 1970-2016 and employed ordinary least square technique. the results suggest that government expenditure hinders terrorism, whereas macroeconomic policies foster it. this study has strong policy implications, suggesting that government should minimize policy inconsistency. proper implementation and co-ordination of macroeconomic policy objective should be rigorously pursed since implementation of such policy is usually multidimensional and hence calls for effective co-ordination among the various government department, institutions and other relevant sectors. the proportion of government expenditure that goes into capital and recurrent expenditure financing should be increased since these components exert significant negative effect on terrorism. in the same vein, government should restructure its various organs of public administration in order to engender efficiency and effectiveness in service delivery. the infrastructures should be improved upon to aid economic growth. however, like any empirical study, this paper has some weaknesses associated with data. data are not available on the number of terrorist attacks per year or the number of victims per incident especially in the 1970s and 1980s. as such, the paper was forced to construct a binary for the dependent variable. this very likely could have affected the results of the study. the findings should be interpreted as no more than a preliminary support of the idea that economic factors may play a role in encouraging/discouraging terrorism. while this paper offers some interesting results, further analyses might be wise by considering more advanced technique of analysis and inclusion of other economic, social, political variables. references abadie, a.(2004). 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(2013). jama'atuansarulmusilimina fi biladis sudan: nigeria‟s evolving terrorist group. report aljazeeral centre for studies. http://studies.aljazeera.net/resourcegallery/media/documents/2013/3/14/2013314103734423734nigerias %20evolving%20terrorist%20group.pdf http://www.doublegist.com/an-overview-of-nigerian-economy/ http://www.doublegist.com/an-overview-of-nigerian-economy/ http://studies.aljazeera.net/resourcegallery/media/documents/2013/3/14/2013314103734423734nigerias%20evolving%20terrorist%20group.pdf http://studies.aljazeera.net/resourcegallery/media/documents/2013/3/14/2013314103734423734nigerias%20evolving%20terrorist%20group.pdf www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 28 onwubiko, e. (2013). corruption as terrorism.guardian.http://www.ngrguardiannews.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1 17753:corruption-as-terrorism&itemid=730 owoye, o. andonafowora, o. a. (2007). m2 targeting, money demand and real gdp growth in nigeria: do rules apply?, journal of business and public affairs,1(2),120.http://www.scientificjournals.org/journals2007/articles/1229.pdf oyeniyi, b. o. (2013). terrorism in nigeria: groups, activities, and politics. academia.edu. http://academia.edu/327799/terrorism_in_nigeria_groups_activities_and_politics piazza, j. a.(2011)."poverty, minority economic discrimination, and domestic terrorism."journal of peace research ,48(3),339-53. sanchez-cuenca, i., and de la calle, l. (2009). "domestic terrorism: the hidden side of political violence." annual review of political science, 12(1), 31-49. sevitenyi, l. n. (2012). "government expenditure and economic growth in nigeria: an empirical investigation (1961-2009)". the journal of economic analysis, 1(1), 38-51. unicef nigeria (2007).the nigerian situation.http://www.unicef.org/nigeria/1971_2199.html yildirima, j., öcalb, n., and korucuc, n. (2010).analysing the determinants of terrorism in turkey using geographically weighted regression.http://www.ub.edu/sea2009.com/papers/10.pdf appendix table 4: attacks blamed on the jambs date location target(s) description remarks 26 nov. 2012 garki, abuja headquarters of the special antirobbery squad (sars) attack and freeing of some inmates in the detention facility of the sars headquarters jamb claimed that the attack was in compliance with a quranic injunction that urged believers to fight for the oppressed andthe feeble. it promised similar attacks against detention centres across the country 19 dec. 2012 katsina state francis colump kidnapping of francis, a french citizen working for the french company vergnet jambs claimed that the reason for kidnapping colump is the stance of the french government and the french people on islam, specifically citing france‟s major role in the (planned) intervention in northern mali http://www.ngrguardiannews.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=117753:corruption-as-terrorism&itemid=730 http://www.ngrguardiannews.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=117753:corruption-as-terrorism&itemid=730 http://www.ngrguardiannews.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=117753:corruption-as-terrorism&itemid=730 www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 29 19 jan. 2013 okene, kogi state convoy of malibound nigerian soldiers ambushing of a truck conveying mali-bound nigerian soldiers, resulting in the death of two soldiers and injuring of five others jambs claimed it attacked the soldiers because of nigeria‟s contribution of troops to mali 17 feb. 2013 jamaare (bauchi state) seven expatriates working with a lebanese construction company, setraco nig. ltd those abducted were four lebanese, one briton, a greek citizen and an italian jambs claimed responsibility for the kidnapping, citing „the transgressions and atrocities done to the religion of allah by the european countries source: onuoha(2013) table 5: categories of militia groups in the niger delta. private militia ethnic militia pan-ethnic militia niger delta people volunteer force (ndpvf) the meinbutusarugbo freedom fighter movement for the emancipation of the niger delta (mend) adaka marines iduwini volunteer force (ivf) the coalition for militant action in the niger delta (coma) martyrs brigade egbesu boys of africa the niger delta people salvation front niger delta volunteers niger delta militant force squad (ndmfs) niger delta coastal guerillas (ndcgs) source:forest (2012) table 6: major incidents of boko haram attacks since 2009 up till date . date casualties . july 26, 2009 boko haram launches mass uprising with attack on a police station in bauchi,starting a five-day uprising that spread to maiduguri and elsewhere. september 7, 2010 boko haram attacked a prison in bauchi, killed about five guards and freed over700 inmates, including former sect members. october 11, 2010 bombing/gun attack on a police stationin maiduguri destroys the station andinjures three by the group december 24, 2010 the group carried out a bomb attack in jos killing 8 people. december 28, 2010 boko haram claims responsibility for the christmas eve bombing in jos that killed38 people december 31,201 the group attack a mammy market at army mogadishu barracks, abuja, 11people died april 1, 2011 the group attacked a police station in bauchi april 9, 2011 the group attacked a polling center in maiduguri and bombed it april 20, 2011 a bomb in maiduguri kills a policeman april 22, 2011 the group attacked a prison in yola and freed 14 prisoners www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 30 april 24, 2011 four bombs explode in maiduguri, killing at least three. may 29, 2011 bombings of an army barracks in bauchicity and maiduguri and led to death of 15people may 31, 2011 gunmen assassinate abba anasibnumargarbai, brother of the shehuofborno, in maiduguri. june 1, 2011 the group killed sheu of borno‟s brother, abba el-kanemi june 7, 2011 a team of gunmen launch parallel attacks with guns and bombs on a church andpolice stations in maiduguri, killing 5 people. june 16, 2011 bombing of police headquarters in abuja, claimed by boko haram. casualty reportsvary. june 26, 2011 gunmen shoot and bomb a bar in maiduguri killing about 25 people august 16, 2011 the bombing of united nations office in abuja, killing over 34 people by thegroup december 25, 2011 bombing of st. theresa‟s catholic church, madalla, killing over 46 people january 6, 2012 the sect attacked some southernersinmubi killing about 13 igbo january 21, 2012 multiple bomb blast rocked kano city, claiming over 185 people january 29, 2012 bombing of kano police station at naibawa area of yakatabo february 8, 2012 bomb blast rocked army headquarters in kaduna february 15, 2012 kotonkarife prison, kogi state was attacked by the sect and about 119prisoners were released and a warder was killed. february 19, 2012 bomb blast rocked suleja niger state near christ embassy church, leaving 5 people seriously injured february 26, 2012 bombing of church of christ in nigeria, jos leading to the death of about 2worshippers & about 38 people sustained serious injuries. march 8 2012 an italian, franco lamolinara and a briton, christopher mcmanus, who wereexpatriate staff of stabilimvisioniconstruction firm were abdicated in 2011 by a splinter group of boko haram and were later killed. march 11, 2012 bombing of st. finbarr‟s catholic church, rayfield, jos resulting in the killing of 11people and several others wounded. april 26 2012 bombing of three media houses (thisday newspaper in abuja killing 3 &2 securityofficers&injured 13 people; thisday, the sun & the moments newspapers in kaduna killing 3 persons & injured many others april,29,2012 attack on bayero university, kano, killing 13 christian worshippers, a senior non-academic staff & two professors april 30, 2012 bomb explosion in jalingo, claiming 11 persons and several others wounded. sources: abimbola and adesote (2012). figure 2: line graphs of each of the series 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 infl 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 gdpc 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 intr 0 1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 govx 0 40 80 120 160 200 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 open 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 polx 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 terr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 31 figure 3: kernel density of terr table 7: descriptive statistics source: researchers‟ computation, 2013, adapted from regression result using e-view 4.1 table 8: pairwise correlation matrix infl gdpc govx open intr terr polx infl 1.00 gdpc -0.24 1.00 govx -0.22 0.49 1.00 open 0.03 -0.02 0.43 1.00 intr 0.34 -0.09 0.19 0.35 1.00 terr 0.20 0.15 0.35 0.36 0.71 1.00 qins -0.21 0.47 0.64 0.17 0.29 0.49 1.00 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 terr kernel density (triangular, h = 0.4358) infl gdpc govx open intr terr polx mean 19.48442 540.9800 769439.9 35.64977 11.20209 0.767442 0.441860 median 12.90000 368.5400 66584.00 6.140000 12.24000 1.000000 0.000000 maximum 72.81000 2300.000 3848545. 180.7300 26.00000 1.000000 1.000000 minimum 1.650000 166.6200 5503.000 0.020000 3.500000 0.000000 0.000000 std. dev. 17.32761 493.6716 1214355. 54.47743 5.312399 0.427463 0.502486 skewness 1.507690 2.689627 1.593320 1.474146 0.368211 -1.266108 0.234146 kurtosis 4.333762 9.527664 4.176456 3.832437 2.770214 2.603030 1.054825 jarque-bera 19.47800 128.1880 20.67354 16.81547 1.066253 11.77072 7.172052 probability 0.000059 0.000000 0.000032 0.000223 0.586767 0.002780 0.027708 sum 837.8300 23262.14 33085916 1532.940 481.6900 33.00000 19.00000 sum sq. dev. 12610.33 10235891 6.19e+13 124647.2 1185.307 7.674419 10.60465 observations 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 augmented dickey-fuller variables levels 1st difference 2nd difference lag length order of integration infl -6.330409* 9 i(1) gdpc -3.542123** 9 i(1) govx 6.061500 9 i(1) open -7.139956* 9 i(1) www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 32 source: researchers‟ computation, 2013, adapted from regression result using e-view 4. table 9: unit root test source: authors‟ computation from computer output. note: * significant at 1%; ** significant at 5%; and ***significant at 10% table 10: regression estimates i variable coefficient std. error t-statistic prob. c -0.616363 0.598483 -1.029875 0.3099 log(infl) -0.014902 0.041387 -0.360071 0.7209 log(gdpc) 0.172628 0.073634 2.344397 0.0247 log(intr) 0.657786 0.101564 6.476560 0.0000 log(govx) -0.113963 0.043641 -2.611361 0.0131 log(open) 0.071738 0.034837 2.059220 0.0468 polx 0.227890 0.094308 2.416438 0.0209 r-squared 0.806491 mean dependent var 0.767442 adjusted r-squared 0.774240 s.d. dependent var 0.427463 s.e. of regression 0.203106 akaike info criterion -0.202282 sum squared resid 1.485067 schwarz criterion 0.084425 log likelihood 11.34906 f-statistic 25.00635 durbin-watson stat 1.445299 prob(f-statistic) 0.000000 source: computational results using eviews 4.1 table 11: regression estimates ii variable coefficient std. error t-statistic prob. c 6.333720 4.832757 1.310581 0.1988 log(infl) -0.004015 0.026225 -0.153081 0.8792 log(gdpc) 0.045682 0.061769 0.739568 0.4646 log(intr) 0.008179 0.094853 0.086224 0.9318 log(govx) -0.303033 0.148141 -2.045578 0.0486 log(open) 0.012170 0.028209 0.431424 0.6689 polx 0.275613 0.072915 3.779929 0.0006 ar(1) 0.976248 0.028413 34.35878 0.0000 r-squared 0.911515 mean dependent var 0.785714 adjusted r-squared 0.893298 s.d. dependent var 0.415300 s.e. of regression 0.135659 akaike info criterion -0.987703 sum squared resid 0.625714 schwarz criterion -0.656718 log likelihood 28.74175 f-statistic 50.03528 durbin-watson stat 2.188453 prob(f-statistic) 0.000000 inverted ar roots .98 source: researchers‟ computation, 2013, adapted from regression result using e-view 4.1 copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. this is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) intr -10.31167* 9 i(1) terr -6.403124* 9 i(1) polx -7.695598* 9 i(1) american economic & social review; vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 published by centre for research on islamic banking & finance and business 52 economic system and environment: co-composting effect of prosopis africana and cow dung oladipo, dayo george1 & emmanuel okokondem okon2 1department of chemistry, university of ilorin, kwara state, nigeria 2department of economics, kogi state university, anyigba, kogi state, nigeria correspondence: oladipo, dayo george, 1department of chemistry, university of ilorin, kwara state, nigeria e-mail: oladipodg@yahoo.com.tel: +2348066146893 received: january 16, 2018 accepted: january 19, 2018 online published: january 28, 2018 abstract an economic system is comprised of the various processes of organizing and motivating labor, producing, distributing, and circulating of the fruits of human labor, including products and services, consumer goods, machines, tools, and other technology used as inputs to future production, and the infrastructure within and through which production, distribution, and circulation occurs. natural environment refers to climate, weather, and natural resources that affect human survival and economic activity. the natural environment is an important component of the economic system, and without the natural environment the economic system will not be able to function. hence, in recent years economists have started treating the natural environment in the same way as they treat labor and capital as an asset and a resource. composting is a biological conversion of heterogeneous organic substrate under controlled conditions, into a hygienic, humus rich and relatively bio-stable product that conditions soil and nourishes plants. the use of compost as a soil conditioner, a fertilizer, or a growth medium has, of course, significant environmental benefits. however, there are also negative impacts on the environment associated with making and using compost. the overall aim of this study is to understand the physicochemical changes such as temperature, conductivity, ph, loss in weight and moisture content that occur during the co-composting of prosopis africana shell with cow dung and to assess the way in which these factors influence the quality of the resulting compost and the environment. keywords: economic system, environment, co-composting, prosopis africana, cow dung. 1. introduction an economic system is comprised of the various processes of organizing and motivating labor, producing, distributing, and circulating of the fruits of human labor, including products and services, consumer goods, machines, tools, and other technology used as inputs to future production, and the infrastructure within and through which production, distribution, and circulation occurs. these processes are overdetermined by the political, cultural, and environmental conditions within which they come to exist (mtholyoke, n.d.). the natural environment is a state in which all living and nonliving things occur in a particular region (the dynamicnature, 2014). according to business dictionary (n.d.), natural environment refers to climate, weather, and natural resources that affect human survival and economic activity. the natural environment is an important component of the economic system, and without the natural environment the economic system will not be able to function. hence, in recent years economists have started treating the natural environment in the same way as they treat labor and capital as an asset and a resource (higheredmheducation, n.d.). the maintenance of good soil quality is vital for the environmental and economic sustainability of annual cropping (arcgis, n.d.). composting is a biological conversion of heterogeneous organic substrate under controlled www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 53 conditions, into a hygienic, humus rich and relatively bio-stable product that conditions soil and nourishes plants (kalaiselvi and ramasamy, 1996). co-composting means the composting of two or more raw materials together (snv, 2016). co-composting, as ordinary composting is an effective strategy for diverting several types of waste from landfills, while transforming them into valuable resources (dinis, 2009). according to manderson (n.d.), compost is the product of the controlled microbial degradation of heterogeneous organic matter into a safe and beneficial humus-like material. the use of compost as a soil conditioner, a fertilizer, or a growth medium has, of course, significant environmental benefits. in addition to returning nutrients to the soil and thus permitting the reduction of artificial fertilizers, compost is waste that does not have to be landfilled. when it is used as daily cover at landfills, it replaces other materials that would otherwise be used for that purpose (unep, n.d.). however, there are also negative impacts on the environment associated with making and using compost. these impacts depend both on the technical approach used and the waste composition of the input streams. mixed municipal solid waste (mmsw) and sewage sludge composting pose greater risks because these materials typically contain higher levels of heavy metals than do kitchen or yard wastes(unep, n.d.). in this study, co-composting of two feedstock was carried (prosopis africana shell and cow dung). prosopis africana is a flowering plant species in the genus prosopis found growing wild in northern and the middle-belt of nigeria. the proximate composition of the nutritional and functional properties of prosopis africana is as follows: moisture, total ash, ether extract, crude protein, crude fibre and carbohydrate, that is, 1.9, 4.4, 12.8, 23.6, 3.3 and 54.0g % respectively (aremu et al., 2007). the seeds contained 20.54, 5.67 and 6.51 g/100 g of protein, ash and fiber, respectively (barminas, 1998). the use of cattle manure, or cow dung, in the farms or garden is a popular practice in many rural areas of nigeria. cow dung provides high levels of organic materials and rich in nutrients. it contains about 3 percent nitrogen, 2 percent phosphorous, and 1 percent potassium (3-2-1 npk). in addition, one of the other advantages it is very useful for the farmers to use cow dung manure because it contains high levels of ammonia which is potentially dangerous for pathogens (atulesh, n.d.). by combining the two feedstock/raw materials during composting, the benefits of each can be used to optimize the process and the product (compost). generally speaking, this study attempts to determine the physical and chemical transformations that occur during the co-composting of prosopis africana shell with cow dung and to assess the way in which these factors influence the quality of the resulting compost and the environment. this investigation is important in enabling us know whether or not compost cannot be considered potentially detrimental or dangerous for the environment or for the human health. 2. nigerian economy and physical environment economy nigeria is the most populous country within opec. it has around 177 million inhabitants. located on the gulf of guinea on africa‘s western coast, nigeria covers an area of around 924 thousand square kilometers (opec, 2018). nigeria is a middle-income, mixed economy and emerging market, with expanding manufacturing, financial, service, communications, technology and entertainment sectors. it is ranked as the 21st-largest economy in the world in terms of nominal gdp, and the 20th-largest in terms of purchasing power parity. it is the largest economy in africa; its re-emergent manufacturing sector became the largest on the continent in 2013, and it produces a large proportion of goods and services for the west african subcontinent (wikipedia, n.d.a). in addition, the debt-to-gdp ratio is 11 percent, which is 8 percent below the 2012 ratio (reuters staff , 2014). nigerian gdp at purchasing power parity (ppp) had almost tripled from $170 billion in 2000 to $451 billion in 2012, although estimates of the size of the informal sector (which is not included in official figures) put the actual numbers closer to $630 billion. correspondingly, the gdp per capita doubled from $1400 per person in 2000 to an estimated $2,800 per person in 2012 (again, with the inclusion of the informal sector, it is estimated that gdp per capita hovers around $3,900 per person). the table 1 shows a trend of gross domestic product of nigeria at market prices estimated by the international monetary fund with figures in usd billions (imf, 2006). figures before 2000 are backwards projections from the 2000–2012 numbers, based on historical growth rates, and should be replaced when data becomes available. the figure for 2014 is derived from a rebasing of economic activities earlier in the year. table 1: economic indicators of nigeria year gross domestic product, (ppp, in billions) us dollar exchange inflation index (2000=100) per capita income (as % of usa) 1980 *58 1 naira 1.30 7% 1985 *82 3 naira 3.20 5% http://www.unep.org/documents/default.asp?documentid=166 http://www.unep.org/documents/default.asp?documentid=166 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/nigeria https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/mixed_economy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/emerging_market https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/list_of_countries_by_gdp_%28nominal%29 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/list_of_countries_by_gdp_%28nominal%29 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/list_of_countries_by_gdp_%28ppp%29 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/west_africa https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/debt-to-gdp_ratio https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/debt-to-gdp_ratio https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/informal_sector https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/international_monetary_fund www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 54 1990 *118 9 naira 8.10 2.5% 1995 *155 50 naira 56 3% 2000 170 100 naira 100 3.5% 2005 291 130 naira 207 4% 2010 392 150 naira 108 5% 2012 451 158 naira 121 7% 2014 972 180 naira (no data) 11% source: wikipedia (n.d.a). although oil revenues contribute 2/3 of oil revenue (wikipedia, n.d.a), oil only contributes about 9% to the gdp. nigeria produces only about 2.7% of the world's oil supply (in comparison, saudi arabia produces 12.9%, russia produces 12.7% and the united states produces 8.6%)(wikipedia, n.d.b). although the petroleum sector is important, as government revenues still heavily rely on this sector, it remains a small part of the country's overall economy(see figure 1 for general economic activities in nigeria).according to a citigroup report published in february 2011, nigeria will get the highest average gdp growth in the world between 2010 and 2050 (wikipedia, n.d.a). nigeria is one of two countries from africa among 11 global growth generators countries. in spite of the oil, agriculture remains the base of the nigerian economy, providing the main source of livelihood for most nigerians. the sector faces many challenges, notably an outdated land tenure system that constrains access to land (1.8 ha/farming household), a very low level of irrigation development (less than 1 percent of cropped land under irrigation), limited adoption of research findings and technologies, high cost of farm inputs, poor access to credit, inefficient fertilizer procurement and distribution, inadequate storage facilities and poor access to markets have all combined to keep agricultural productivity low (average of 1.2 metric tons of cereals/ha) with high postharvest losses and waste (fao, 2018). even though agriculture still remains the largest sector of the nigerian economy and employs two-thirds of the entire labour force, the production hurdles have significantly stifled the performance of the sector. over the past 20 years, value-added per capita in agriculture has risen by less than 1 percent annually. it is estimated that nigeria has lost usd 10 billion in annual export opportunity from groundnut, palm oil, cocoa and cotton alone due to continuous decline in the production of those commodities. food (crop) production increases have not kept pace with population growth, resulting in rising food imports and declining levels of national food self-sufficiency. the main factors undermining production include reliance on rainfed agriculture, smallholder land holding, and low productivity due to poor planting material, low fertilizer application, and a weak agricultural extension system amongst others (fao, 2018). figure 1: map of nigeria showing economic activities source:aregheore (n.d.). physical environment due to its peculiar geographical, geological and geomorphological setting, the nigerian environmental system is characterized by the combination of natural features that make it uniquely susceptible and highly fragile. in ecological terms, nigeria is a land of extremes and had remained constantly at risk for ages, with the more recent phenomenon of global warming further accentuating the rate of environmental degradation. some of these unique features include: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/saudi_arabia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/russia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/united_states https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/citigroup https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3g_%28countries%29 www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 55 (a) nigeria is bounded in the south by over 850km long active coastline and in the north by a similar length of the sahara desert (see fig. 2). the country is therefore permanently being ravaged by coastline erosion to the south as well as desertification to the north. global warming is now acting as a catalyst to these two destructive natural forces. thus, while coastal inhabitants are under constant threats of sea-level rise, and coastal erosion, nigerians who dwell along the fringes of the sahara are under the unabating threats of desertification. figure 2 : nigeria: state and coastal boundaries source: google(n.d.). figure 3: map of nigeria showing climate classification source: zifan (n.d.) (b) the low-lying nature of much of the coastal parts of nigeria due to its natural geological setting also constitutes a natural threat to the nigerian environment. generally, rising to less than 5 metres above sea level, these coastal regions are highly prone to flooding even with small rises in sea level (ngenvirons, n.d.) (see figure 3). (c) nigeria lies in the middle latitudes in the gulf of guinea. it is therefore characterized by generally high and strong wave systems which have more destructive impacts on the shoreline and constantly causing shoreline erosion. (d) nigeria lies within the equatorial belt characterized by generally high torrential rainfall (fig. 4). annual rainfall ranges from over 3000mm along the coastline to about 600mm in the extreme north(ngenvirons, n.d.). even with its short season, rainfall in the north is usually characterized by heavy downpour and high impact torrents, contributing largely to gully erosion. www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 56 figure 4: map of nigeria showing annual rainfall source: ishaku and rafeemajid (2010). (e) over 40% of nigeria‘s land area is covered by loose cretaceous sandstones and deeply weathered basement complex rocks giving relatively soft and loose sections near surface (ngenvirons, n.d.). such profiles are highly susceptible to gully erosion, especially when combined with torrential rainfall. soils soil types in nigeria are influenced by and follow very broadly, the climatic and vegetational zones of the country. this is expected because the degree of available moisture in the soil is an important factor in soil reactions and fertility and productivity (see figure 5 for soil fertility of nigeria: ph water). the soils of the humid tropical forests are quite different from those of the drier forests and the savanna zone, which in turn are different from the savanna zone (aregheore, n.d.). figure 5: soil fertility map of nigeria: ph water source: google (n.d.b). the major soil types in nigeria, according to fao soil taxonomy legends are fluvisols, regosols, gleysols, acrisols, ferrasols, alisols, lixisols, cambisols, luvisols, nitosols, arenosols and vertisols. these soil types vary in their potential for agricultural use (see table 2). none of the soils were rated as class 1 with high productivity by the fao. in-short over 48 % of the nigerian soils fall into class 4 and 5, which are mainly vertisols, alisols, acrisols, ferrasols and arensol. these soils usually have low productivity due to inadequate moisture retention capacity and low organic matter. except for the ferrasols, they are the most dominant types found in the northern dry parts of the country. www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 57 table 2: productivity potential of nigerian soils soil productivity grade fao productivity classes area km2 % of total high (1) good (2) fluvisols, gleysols, regosols 50.4 5.52 medium (3) lixisols, cambisols, luvisols, nitosols 423.6 46.45 low (4) acrisols, ferrasols, alisols, vertisols 289.2 31.72 low (5) arenosols, nitosols 148.8 16.32 source: adegbola, s.a. (1979). 2.1. prosopis africana in nigeria prosopis africana is a multipurpose tree of great economic value among the rural communities in the guinea savanna of nigeria (agboola, 2004). the tree is generally known as iron wood tree in nigeria and itbelongs to the family minosoceae. it is variously called; kiriya (hausa), ayan (yoruba), ubwa (igbo) and gbaaye or kpaaye (tiv). this list of names is however in-exhaustive, because in north-central nigeria the iron wood tree is widely known and called differently by the many different ethnicities in the region. the species is widely distributed in the sahel region of africa and is native to africa; occurring from senegal to ethiopia throughout the sudananian and guinea eco-zones. it is a common deciduous savannah tree throughout west africa. like the african locust bean tree; the iron wood tree is widely distributed in nigeria; a common characteristic distribution on farm-lands in north-central states of nigeria namely benue, jos, kaduna, kogi, kwara and nasarawa states. however, their population in the wild is now threatened because of extended uses and particularly, of its wood for fuelwood and burnt bricks production (tee et al., 2009). the fruit of the tree is used as feed for animals, while the seeds are fermented to make ukpehe, a highly proteinaceous condiment. the tree is not cultivated. the products from the hard wood, such as some wooden farm implements, kitchen utensils, and planks for construction, are extensively traded. the tree is a good source of firewood and charcoal. the secondary roots are used as medicine (agboola, 2004). in summary, iron wood tree is widely utilized in nigeria and other african countries for consumption, source of income/employment as well as ecological services. 2.2. cow dung cow dung, also known as cow pats, cow pies or cow manure, is the waste productof bovine animal species. these species include domestic cattle ("cows"), bison("buffalo"), yak, and water buffalo. cow dung is the undigested residue of plant matter which has passed through the animal's gut. the resultant faecal matter is rich in minerals. color ranges from greenish to blackish, often darkening soon after exposure to air (wikipedia, n.d.). cow dung, which is usually a dark brown color (usually combined with soiled bedding and urine) is often used as manure (agricultural fertilizer). if not recycled into the soil by species such as earthworms and dung beetles, cow dung can dry out and remain on the pasture, creating an area of grazing land which is unpalatable to livestock. in many parts of the developing world, and in the past in mountain regions of europe, caked and dried cow dung is used as fuel. dung may also be collected and used to produce biogas to generate electricity and heat. the gas is rich in methane and is used in rural areas of india and pakistan and elsewhere to provide a renewable and stable source of electricity (denmark, n.d.). in central africa, maasai villages have burned cow dung inside to repel mosquitos. in cold places, cow dung is used to line the walls of rustic houses as a cheap thermal insulator. most of villagers in india spray fresh cow dung mixed with water in front of the houses to repel insects. it is also dried into cake like shapes and used as replacement for firewood (wikipedia, n.d.). in nigeria, traditionally, cow dung is used as a fertiliser, though today dung is collected and used to produce biogas (essiet, 2015). 3. literature review: composting a review of literature has revealed a wide variation in compost quality and characteristics. dresbøll and thorupkristensen (2005) investigated the physical properties of produced compost and the process parameters of composting based on plant residue feedstock from three different species of plants (wheat, hemp, and miscanthus). the authors indicated that different plant feedstocks changed the texture of the compost produced noticeably, affecting parameters like water retention, particle size distribution, c/n ratio, and the amount of mineralized nitrogen. physical and chemical properties of commercial compost based on their feedstocks and location of origin were investigated by zmora-nahum et al. (2007). the authors found that while the compost properties differed widely, there was significant correlation of properties based on the type feedstock. www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 58 microbes are major drivers of the composting process, and as such, characterization and identification of microorganisms in compost is important to better understand degradation mechanisms. microbial community structures change during the composting process as temperature and chemical conditions change. blanc et al. (1999) classified the microbial variety in composts using a combination of population counts and rdna isolate tests. the authors reported that thermophilic bacteria were being replaced with less thermophilic bacteria as the temperature in the compost pile dropped below optimal ranges for thermophilic bacteria (blanc et al., 1999). fernandez et al.(2008) have evaluated carbon degradation value during co-composting of exhausted grape marc with different biowastes: manure and straw, municipal solid waste and grape straw. they concluded that co-composting of exhausted grape marc not only enhanced the carbon degradation rate, but also reduced the carbon remnant fraction at the end of the composting process (fernandez et al., 2008). tognettiet al., (2005) applied co-composting when mixing municipal organic waste with biosolids and the result showed that this led to improved organic matter concentration therefore enhancing the compost quality and market value while creating products that improve the nutritional capacity of the soil (tognettiet al., 2005). the chemical and physical stability of the compost determines the shelf-life and applicability of compost for various uses. a stable compost is one that shows an advanced degree of organic matter decomposition with resistance to further decomposition (mondiniet al., 2003; wichuk and mccartney, 2010). a stable compost shows steady values of a number of indices like respiration rates (wu et al., 2000), microbial count and biomass, organic matter content, c/n ratio, and storage temperature (baffi et al., 2007; wichuk and mccartney, 2010). many phytotoxins, which are compounds detrimental to plant growth, come from agricultural use of pesticides, industrial solvents, propellants, and refrigerants (e.g., halogenated alkanes, alkenes, and aromatic (aryl) hydrocarbons), degradation of waste plastics (polymers, pigments, bulking agents, and filler materials), and storm water runoff. composting facilitates microbial degradation of organic molecules with phytotoxic properties, and in addition, organic matter generated through composting can bind phytotoxic metals and thereby reduce their bioavailability. direct germination rates, or a modified germination index (comparison of germination rates of a test vs a control growth media) have been used as indicators of phytotoxicity in composts (pascualet al., 1997; tiquia et al., 1997; tiquia and tam, 1998; tiquia and tam, 2000; wu et al., 2000; tang et al., 2006; himanen and hänninen, 2011). 4. materials and methods prosopis africana fruits were collected from ilorin, kwara state in the north central zone of nigeria. the prosopis africana shells were washed, dried, separated from their seeds and pulverized and stored in an airtight container at room temperature. 4.1 preparation of compost prosopis africana was washed, dried and crushed. prosopis africana shells were pulverized and separated from its seeds, 50g was weighed into a conical flask and 10g of cow dung and added to it in the flask. 60ml of distilled water was added and all the components of the flask were thoroughly stirred together. it was covered with foil paper and kept at room temperature for decomposition. samplings were carried out on a weekly basis for seven weeks (7, 14, 21, 28, 35, 42 and 49 days)to monitor the decomposition in terms of loss in weight, change in moisture content, electrical conductivity, ph and temperature. the weight was measured using a weighing balance in order to determine the decomposition. the ph, electrical conductivity and temperature were measured by preparing 1% wt/wtof compost in water and then oven dried in the oven after each sampling. after each sampling day, the content of the flask were oven dried at 100oc for about 30 minutes and a control sample was prepared without cow dung amendment. 1% w/w of the sample was taken at every 7 days interval. the electrical conductivity was measured using ec214 conductivity meter and ph was measured using inolab 7310 ph meter. the temperature, conductivity and weight of the selected sample was recorded before being oven dried. the weight after oven drying was also recorded so that the discrepancy after oven-drying would correspond to the moisture content. temperature, one of the key indicators of composting determines the rate of many biological processes as it indicates the end of the transition from the active phase to the curing phase. this plays a selective role on evolution and succession of microbiological communities (hassen et al., 2001). in the study, the temperature measurements were taken from the compost during the whole period of decompostion . the results from the table gives a graph of the variation of those parameters measured during the period of decompostion. 5. results and discussions 5.1 presentation of results the temperature, electrical conductivity, moisture content, loss in weight and ph for the composting experiment is presented generally in table 3. however, the breakdown and dicussion of results were done subsequent tables. www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 59 table 3: loss in weight, moisture content, ph, electrical conductivity and temperature of composting experiment. sn composting period (days) temperature ( 0 c) moisture content loss in weight (g) ph electrical conductivity (s/m) 1 7 30.50 150.78 2.47 9.67 117.23 2 14 30.33 161.60 2.49 8.67 105.7 3 21 30.67 148.94 2.34 7.87 93.26 4 28 30.67 150.49 2.40 7.70 97.43 5 35 29.33 154.67 2.65 8.20 64.17 6 42 29.17 144.88 2.66 9.00 46.23 7 49 30.00 158.46 2.84 9.20 36.30 source: field report 5.2.1 temperature table 4: temperature (0c) against composting period (days). s/n composting period (days) temperature ( 0 c) 1. 7 30.50 2. 14 30.33 3. 21 30.67 4. 28 30.67 5. 35 29.33 6. 42 29.17 7. 49 30.00 source: field report figure 6: graph of temperature against the composting period. source: field report figure 6 explains the relationship of the temperature with the composting period (days) during composting. temperature range in this study falls within the acceptable range for composting of organic material. the decomposition of the prosopis africana was rapid in the first week of the composting process resulting in increase in temperature of the compost due to the heat liberated by the action of microorganisms that degrade the compost using the surrounding oxygen (ros et al., 2006). this may be referred to as the active phase of the composting process. the temperature was maintained at about 30°c for a minimum of 14 days to destroy the viability of many pathogens in the mixture. a pathogen is an organism that produces a disease. an example of a very well known pathogenic www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 60 bacteria is salmonella. there are some 200 immunologically distinguishable types of salmonella known to be pathogenic to humans. but there are many more that infect animals, including livestock. cross-infection between people can occur via water pollution. the spreading of untreated or poorly treated compost on land and its use for the irrigation of crops can also be a source of infection (lenntech, n.d.). however, the temperature of the compost was monitored such that it does not produce so much heat that the compost burst into flame. the second stage; the curing phase, is evident in the graph where the graph steeps down significantly, this occurs during the fourth week. this indicates the lowering of temperature (i.e., dropping to ambient air temperature) when the decomposition is almost over and mesophilic microorganism recolonize the compost. the last phase where the temperature dropped is the maturation phase which is characterized by decrease in temperature (bernal et al., 2009). mature compost is a stable material with content called humus that is dark brown or black and has a soil-like, earthy smell (epa, n.d.). compost application can improve soil quality and productivity as well as sustainability of agricultural production by replenishing soil organic matter and supplying nutrients (duong, 2013). agriculture is the backbone of the economic system of a given country. in addition to providing food and raw material, agriculture also provides employment opportunities to very large percentage of the population (agriculture goods, n.d.). that is why agriculture has been regarded in recent times as the most viable route with which nigeria can successfully meander from her current economic dilemma (aikhionbare, 2016). 5.2.2 loss in weight table 7:loss in weight(g) against composting period(days) s/n composting period (days) loss in weight (g) 1. 7 2.47 2. 14 2.49 3. 21 2.34 4. 28 2.40 5. 35 2.65 6. 42 2.66 7. 49 2.84 source: field report figure 8: a graph of loss in weight against composting period source: field report the profile for weight loss was found to drastically increase generally throughout the composting period due to the volatilization losses of nitrogen in the compost (see figure 8). these gaseous losses can include nh3, n2o, n2, and possibly other nitrogen oxide compounds (martins and dewes, 1992; körner et al.,1999). volatilization losses of nitrogen vary depending on the balance with available carbon (martins and dewes, 1992; rynk et al.,1992) and with oxygenation level (michel and reddy, 1998). loss of nitrogen can also result from high ammonium levels at high ph. concerning the effect of these gaseous losses on the environment, hao and benke (2008) observed that the biggest challenge in composting is n loss, mainly as nh3 and to a lesser extent as n2o. ammonia contributes to smog formation and reduces air quality. near large feedlot operations, high atmospheric nh3 depositions have been linked to plant diversity decline, soil acidification and surface water eutrohication. emission of n2o (greenhouse gas) contributes to global warming and climate change (hao and benke, 2008). scientists and economists are https://infoguidenigeria.com/author/iaikhionbare/ www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 61 beginning to grapple with the serious economic and environmental consequences if greenhouse gases emission is not quickly and deeply reduced (ucs, n.d.). as forbes (2017) observed, global warming affects the geography within which the global economy operates. it changes growth zones. it changes shorelines. it changes the places where humans will feel comfortable living. in addition, if humans actually decide to do anything about it, it will change the way industry and people use fossil fuels. 5.2.3 electrical conductivity table 9: values for electrical conductivities (s/m) s/n composting period (days) electrical conductivity (s/m) 1. 7 117.23 2. 14 105.7 3. 21 93.26 4. 28 97.43 5. 35 64.17 6. 42 46.23 7. 49 36.30 source: field report 0 50 100 150 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 el e ct ri ca l c o n d u ct iv it y (s /m ) composting period (days) electrical conductivity(s/m) against composting period (days) figure 10: electrical conductivity (s/m) against composting period (days) source: field report the highest conductivity was measured at the initial time of decomposition. this graph shows a negative slope which indicates that the amount of free ions in a solution decreases with increasing composting period. the electrical conductivity is actually a measure of salinity. compost with excessively high salinity can affect plants in the following ways: specific toxicity of a particular ion (such as sodium); higher osmotic pressure around the roots prevents an efficient water absorption by the plant. some plants are more susceptible to the electrical conductivity than others and each specie has an electrical conductivity threshold, beyond which yield is decreased (sela, 2017). 4.2.3 moisture content table 10: the values for the moisture content during the composting period s/n composting period (days) moisture content 1. 7 150.78 2. 14 161.60 3. 21 148.94 4. 28 150.49 5. 35 154.67 6. 42 144.88 7. 49 158.46 source: field report www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 62 figure 11: the graph of moisture content against composting period source: field report the result of this study reveals that the moisture content varies significantly with the temperature profile. moisture content are important parameters to evaluate maturity of compost (ameen et al., 2016). rynk (2000), haug (1993), lin et al. (2008), kuwahara et al (2009) and nakayama et al (2007) suggested that the optimal moisture content for biological activity is between approximately 40 and 60 percent of the compost‘s weight. rynk (2000) also mentioned that the critical moisture content range for supporting spontaneous combustion is around 20 to 45 percent; above this range there is moisture sufficient for the evaporation process to cool the temperature and below it there is insufficient moisture to sustain the biological reaction. normally, the composting process operates with a moisture content range of between 40 and 70 percent (haug, 1993). the graph in figure 11 shows that the moisture content increases from the first week as the active phase of the composting process progresses rapidly, the moisture content also decreases during the curing phase according to the graph. the reduction in the value of moisture content at the end of composting is a positive sign of decomposition and it gives mature compost (epstein et al., 1995). 4.2.4. ph table 11: ph versus composting period (days). s/n composting period (days) ph 1. 7 9.67 2. 14 8.67 3. 21 7.87 4. 28 7.70 5. 35 8.20 6. 42 9.00 7. 49 9.20 source: field report www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 63 0 5 10 15 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 p h composting period(days) variation of ph with composting period figure 12: a graph showing the relationship between ph and the composting period. source: field report as shown in figure 12, the ph initially decreases for the first three weeks. during the process of co-composting, the ph value for the compost tended to stabilize at around 7.79 and 8.10. this slight decrease in ph was noted in the compost and can be explained by the production of organic acids; dissolved co2 in the medium and by-products from the degradation of easily degradable compounds such as polysaccharides and fats. also, a lack of oxygen that can occur between two turnings can result in the production of acids (kochtitzkyet al.,1969; mustin ,1987; peters et al.,2000). in terms of environment and ph, soil ph affects the amount of nutrients and chemicals that are soluble in soil water, and therefore the amount of nutrients available to plants. some nutrients are more available under acid conditions while others are more available under alkaline conditions. however, most mineral nutrients are readily available to plants when soil ph is near neutral. the development of strongly acidic soils (less than 5.5 ph) can result in poor plant growth as a result of one or more of the following factors: aluminum toxicity, manganese toxicity, calcium deficiency, magnesium deficiency, low levels of essential plant nutrients such as phosphorus and molybdenum. alkaline soils may have problems with deficiencies of nutrients such as zinc, copper, boron and manganese. soils with an extremely alkaline ph (greater than 9) are likely to have high levels of sodium (greensland government, n.d.). 5. conclusion and suggestions during future research economic activity is spurred by production which uses natural resources, labor, and capital. it has changed over time due to technology (automation, accelerator of process, reduction of cost functions), innovation (new products, services, processes, new markets, expands markets, diversification of markets, niche markets, increases revenue functions) such as, that which produces intellectual property and changes in industrial relations (wikipedia, n.d.c). however,wastes are generated by activities in all economic sectors involving loss of materials and energy, and imposes economic and environmental costs on society for its collection, treatment and disposal (morselli et al., 2008). composting is a biological conversion of heterogeneous organic substrate under controlled conditions, into a hygienic, humus rich and relatively bio-stable product that conditions soil and nourishes plants (kalaiselvi and ramasamy, 1996). composting has a great importance in economic terms, because it affects a lot and directly into increased productivity culture for which it is used. however, making and using of compost should not be detrimental or dangerous for the environment. the natural environment is an important component of the economic system, and without the natural environment the economic system will not be able to function. this study has attempted to probe the physical and chemical transformations that occurred during the 49-day composting of prosopis africana shell and cow dung and implication on environment. however, for future research, firstly, the variation of the c/n nitrogen during the composting period should be monitored and recorded weekly. secondly, the composting process is an aerobic process and therefore needs adequate supply of oxygen, the use of foil paper to cover the conical flask should be discouraged. thirdly, graph showing moisture content during the composting period showed that the moisture content did not stabilize at any point, probably implying that the composting of prosopis africana shell should take a little longer than 49days before compost maturity is properly reached. references adegbola, s.a. 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vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 published by centre for research on islamic banking & finance and business, usa poverty and income inequality in nigeria: an illustration of lorenz curve from nbs survey lucky anyike lucky1 & achebelema damiebi sam1 1department of banking and finance, rivers state university, port harcourt, nigeria correspondence: lucky anyike lucky, department of banking and finance, rivers state university, port harcourt, nigeria received: april 06, 2018 accepted: april 19, 2018 online published: may 05, 2018 abstract this study adopted the nigerian bureau of statistics survey to examine poverty and income inequality in nigeria. the objective was to examine the rate of poverty and income distribution in nigeria using the lorenz curve and gain coefficient. food poverty line, absolute poverty line, subjective poverty measure and dollar per day poverty line were used to measure poverty while gani coefficient was used to measure income inequality. findings reveal that significant proportions of nigerian population are living below the poverty line adopted in this study. the study also found that there is wide gap between the rich and the poor in nigeria. the study recommend implementable polices to reduce poverty and reduce income inequality in nigeria. keywords: poverty, income inequality, nigeria, lorenz curve, gani coefficient, nbs survey. 1. introduction nigeria economy is a developing economy with abundant human and other natural resources; nigeria is recognized as oil producing country, a member of organization of petroleum exporting countries (opec), the tenth largest producer of crude oil in the world and african highest exporter of crude oil (lucky and nwosi, 2016). the country’s crude oil reserve is estimated at 35 billion barrel with national gas reserve of 180 trillion cubic feet, a production capacity of 2.5 million barrel per day and annual production of 900,000,000 barrel (ushieet al. 2012) but among the third world countries and ranked among the poorest. this is contrary to the global perception of nigeria as a rich oil producing country. the population is estimated at 189 million, 2.48% of total world population, 205 per km2, the total land area is 910802km2, 48.1% of the population is urban, the median age 18 years and the sex ratio is 1.026 that is 1,026 male per 1000 female. the literacy rate is 56.6%, the dependency ratio is 78.8%, and child dependency ratio is 73.2%. 40.9% of the population are children under 15 years, 55.9% are between 15 and 64 years while 3.1% are 65 years and above. apart from macroeconomic challenges such galloping inflation, unemployment, balance of payment deficit, poor economic growth and depreciating naira value, other challenges face significant population of the country is poverty and income inequality. traditionally, income distribution and poverty concerned how income was divided among the owners of business (for whom profits were the source of income), the owners of land (who receive rent) and the workers (who earned wages) (colander, 2005). poverty and income inequality have theoretically been identified to be inextricably linked and that the existence of one often implies the existence of the other (burtless and smeeding, 2002; bourguignon, 2004). a better income distribution helps people of the lowest income group to increase their income so that they can exit from their poverty. achieving income equality and reduction on the growing level of poverty is one the major developmental objectives of the developing countries this because income inequality and growing level of poverty is a major limitation of economic development. analysts have argued that solving the problems of poverty and inequality needs appropriate policies that aims at the gaps and ensures that the poor in a given population can benefit from it (ogbeide and agu, 2015). nigeria was ranked 156th position among 177 countries as compared to the 151st position in 2002 in human development index (hdi), nigeria human poverty index (hpi) for 2009 was only 36.2% placing nigeria at the 114th position and among the 7th poorest nations in the world while the ratio of the richest 10 percent to the poorest 10 percent was 16.3 with gini index from 42.9 in 2004 to 44.7 in (national bureau of statistics nbs, 2012; undp, 2013). 81 www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 yet the country ranks 6th and 7th as oil producer and exporter and ranks 10th as the most populous country in the world with a real gdp growth rate of 7.0 in 2009 which grew to 8.0 in 2010 which however dropped to 6.3 in 2013(ogbede and agu, 2015). the argument on what constitute poverty level and income equality has long been a point of departure among economists. economist who favour a relative measure of poverty argue that the poverty measure is too low since food is closer to a fourth of family’s total budget, it would be reasonable to increase the poverty threshold by multiplying food expenditures by a number a bit less than four rather than by three. economist who favour an absolute measure of poverty argue that the measure is too high as it does not capture non-cash transfers such as food stamps and housing assistance nor does it consider under reporting income or the saving people have. from the classical perspective, income equality discourages savings. income equality means a higher income for the working classes and a rise in their consumption. this, in turn, means rise in population. the classical believed that inequalities of incomes were necessary to provide the incentives for economic growth. the keynesian economists pleaded for income equality to sustain economic growth. the keynesian’s opinion was that a society which saves more due to inequalities of income and wealth brings secular stagnation, because inequalities would reduce its consumption capacity and bring contraction in demand. ultimately, it would lead to fall in production and slowing down the economic activity (adegoke, 2013). the marxian also supported this claim. according to them, it was income inequality that would bring the doom of capitalism. marx argued that income inequality meant less consumption for the poor masses. this would automatically lead to unsold stocks of goods and to a stop of further production. in this way these would be cumulative over-production and under consumption and the capitalist economy would move towards secular stagnations. the post keynesian economist carried keynes views further. keynes believed that encouraging consumption is alternative to savings. but the post-keynesian economists showed that they are complementary. when there is income inequality it leads to excessive thriftiness and fall in inducement to invest as a result of declining marginal efficiency of capital. economic growth requires the balancing of the two forces which is possible in a high wage low profit economy and investment free society. from the above this study intends to examine poverty and income inequality in nigeria as other studies fail capture the various dimensions of poverty and income inequality. the rest part of this paper are as follows; section two discuses the concept of poverty, income inequality causes of poverty and policies for income redistribution, section three discusses the methods adopted in the study, section four presents and analyze results while section five concludes and make recommendations from the findings. 2. literature review the concept of poverty poverty is the economic condition in which people lack sufficient income to obtain certain minimal levels of health services, food, housing, clothing and education which are necessities for standard of living (world bank, 2011). the various definitions and measures of poverty lead to two perspectives which are income poverty and lack of basic need poverty. income poverty occurs when an individual does not have enough money to meet up with the a certain standard of living while lack of basic need poverty occurs when one is unable to meet some of the basic needs such as food, shelter and clothing as identified by united nations, children’s fund (unicef). from the above definition of poverty, income definition is the most appropriate, therefore this study use the income definition of poverty (ogbeide and agu, 2015). the concept of income inequality inequality has to do with differences in the share of something between/among two or more persons where the share of one/some is greater than that of the others. according to ray (1998), economic inequality occurs when one individual is given some material choice/resources and another is denied the same thing. inequality can be in income, consumption, wealth, gender, employment, health variables and many more. but for this study we are interested in income inequality. income inequality is defined as the inequitable distribution of income among the members of a particular group, an economy or society. income inequality can be measured generally using the lorenz curve, the gini coefficient and general entropy class. the gini coefficient is most frequently used measure and it is close to the lorenz curve (ogbeide and agu, 2015). income redistribution policy social transfers and inequality redistribution can take place through social transfers, including social assistance benefits and social insurance programmes. the former typically target the needy and can therefore be expected to have a strong redistributive effect. in nigeria however, social insurance programmes such as pensions and unemployment insurance is regressive rather than progressive; and this tendency is exacerbated by the fact that such programmes tend to exclude workers in the informal economy, who disproportionately comprise the poor. there is a relatively strong negative association 82 www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 between spending on social transfers and inequality. developing countries such as nigeria have high rate income inequality to poor implementation of social transfer policies and fraudulent activities in the programmes. the negative relationship between income inequality and social transfers can be interpreted as evidence that high inequality countries like nigeria lack the economic or political means to fund social programmes. the role of taxes in income redistribution redistribution can take place through taxation. different taxes have different impacts on income distribution. generally, personal income taxes and property taxes are progressive increasing equality, corporate taxes are u shaped (regressive for small and large companies and progressive for medium-sized companies) and indirect taxes are regressive. together reliance on different taxes combines to define the extent of progressivity in the overall tax system. typically, the overall tax system in poor countries is regressive (gemmel and morrissey 2005). great care needs to be taken when using the tax instrument for redistribution purposes. it is crucial that taxes should not distort incentives to work, invest and create wealth. any recourse to tax reform reduces income inequalities should therefore take into account the possible impact on economic growth and employment. taxes are used for a variety of purposes; they can raise revenue for government, provide incentives or disincentives for certain activities and correct market failure, taxes and expenditures can also serve to distribute income and help reduce inequality. government expenditures on public goods public expenditure concerns the expenses incurred by government for its own maintenance, the maintenance of the society and the economy at large. expenditures incurred for helping countries form a part of total public expenditure. the starting point of the theory of public expenditure is the failure of the market mechanism to respond fully to the true needs of the society. in other words, market mechanism is not able to bridge the gap between private and social goods. furthermore, the public sector considers it relevant to protect the economy from the evils of market mechanism such as labour exploitation, economic and social injustice. the public sector is on expanding the supply of merit goods and forcing the consumption upon the members of the society. thus, theory of public expenditure started attracting increasing attention with the advent of welfare economics in which the role of the state was explicitly recognized and in which budgetary operations assumed a significant role. this tendency has been further reinforced by the widening interest of economists in the problems of economic growth, planning regional disparities, distributive justice and the like. investment in education, health and other social services can also exert are distributive effect. while taxes and social transfers have an immediate effect on income distribution, public provision of social services tends to have a more long-term impact. government programmes in primary education or health care and infrastructure investment in areas such as water and sanitation help alleviate the deep-rooted aspects of inequality by creating opportunities. this is particularly the case with education and heath programmes, which directly support low-income groups, since they tend to benefit all individuals more or less equally and replace private spending on health care and schooling. education and health programmes help redistributive opportunities over the long run, enhancing human capital in all groups and thus changing income capabilities. income inequality: the political class nigeria politicians earn the highest salaries the whole world. in luxemburg where minimum wage is $2,500, their lawmakers are paid $7,400. in libya where minimum wage is $430, law-makers earn $3000. in nigeria where minimum wage is $38 (n18, 000), law-makers earn $65,000 (n29m).the lagos pension law approved by former governor in 2007, a former governor will enjoy the following benefits for life: two houses, one in lagos and another in abuja. property experts estimate such a house in lagos to cost n500m and abuja n700m.) others are six brand new cars replaceable every three years; furniture allowance of 300 percent of annual salary to be paid every two years, and a close to n2.5m as pension (about n30m pension annually). he will also enjoy security detail, free medicals including for his immediate families. other benefits are 10 percent house maintenance, 30 percent car maintenance, 10 percent entertainment, 20 percent utility, and several domestic staff. in rivers, the law provides 100 percent of annual basic salaries for ex-governor and deputy, one residential house for former governor anywhere of his choice in nigeria; one residential house anywhere in rivers for the deputy, three cars for the ex-governor every four years; two cars for the deputy every four years. his furniture is 300 percent of annual basic salary every four years en bloc. house maintenance is 10 percent of annual basic salary. in akwa ibom, the law provides for n200m annual pay to ex governors, deputies. he enjoys a pension for life at a rate equivalent to the salary of the incumbent governor/deputy governor respectively. a new official car and a utility vehicle every four years; one personal aide and provision of adequate security; a cook, chauffeurs and security guards for the governor at a sum not exceeding n5m per month and n2.5m for the deputy governor. there is also a free medical service for governor and spouse at an amount not exceeding n100m for the governor per annum and n50m for the deputy governor. also, there is a five-bedroom mansion in abuja and akwa ibom and allowance of 83 www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 300 percent of annual basic salary for the deputy governor. he takes a furniture allowance of 300 percent of annual basic salary every four years in addition to severance gratuity. the kano state pension rights of governor and deputy governor law 2007 provides for 100 percent of annual basic salaries for former governor and deputy. furnished and equipped office, as well as a 6-bedroom house; well furnished 4-bedroom for deputy, plus an office. the former governor is also entitled to free medical treatment along with his immediate families within and outside nigeria where necessary. it is same for deputy. two drivers are also for former governor and a driver for his deputy; and personal staff below the rank of a principal administrative officer and a pa not below grade level 10. there is a provision for a 30day vacation within and outside nigeria. in gombe, there are n300 million executive pension benefits for the ex-governor. in kwara, the 2010 law gives a former governor two cars and a security car, replaceable every three years, a well-furnished 5-bedroom duplex, furniture allowance of 300 per cent of his salary; five personal staff, free medical care for the governor and the deputy, 30 percent of salary for car maintenance, 20 per cent for utility, 10 percent for entertainment, 10 per cent for house maintenance. the zamfara version of the law, signed in 2006, gives former governors pension for life, two personal staff, two vehicles replaceable every four years, two drivers, free medical for the former governors and deputies and their immediate families in nigeria or abroad. the law also gives the former governors a 4-bedroom house in zamfara and an office, free telephone and 30 days paid vacation outside nigeria. in sokoto, former governors and deputy governors are to receive n200m and n180m respectively being monetization for other entitlements which include domestic aides, residence and vehicles that could be renewed after every four years. section 2 (2) of the sokoto state grant of pension (governor and deputy governor) law, 2013 states that the total annual pension to be paid to the governor and deputy governor, shall be at a rate equivalent to the annual total salary of the incumbent governor or deputy governor of the state respectively. according to rmafc, a minister receives an annual basic salary of n2m, accommodation n4m, vehicle loan n8m, furniture allowance n6m, utility n607, 920, vehicle maintenance n1.5m, entertainment n911, 880 and leave allowance n202, 640. the minister also receives n506, 600 for personal assistants, n1.5 million for domestic staff, n303, 960 for newspapers and n6m as severance gratuity. in addition, the minister is entitled to n35,000 as duty tour allowance (dta) per day. for foreign trips, a minister receives $1,000 per day. a senator earns a basic salary of n2,026,400.00, accommodation, motor vehicle loan(400% of their annual basic salary), motor vehicle maintenance allowance (75% of annual basic salary), furniture allowance(300% of their annual basic salary), utilities allowance( 30% of their basic salary), and medical allowance. other benefits they are earning are newspaper allowances, special assistant (between grade level 12 and 14), personal assistant, two legislative aides, one senior legislative aide, entertainment allowance, wardrobe allowance and constituency allowance and severance gratuity. section 2 (a) of the ccb law provides that a public officer shall not “receive or be paid the emoluments of any public office at the same time as he receives or is paid emoluments of any other public office; or (b) except where he is not employed on full time basis, engage or participate in the management or running of any private business, profession or trade; but nothing in this sub-paragraph shall prevent a public officer from engaging in farming. section 4 of the law says a public officer shall not, after his retirement from public service and while receiving pension from public funds, accept more than one remunerative position as chairman, director or employee of (a) a company owned or controlled by the government; or (b) any public authority. a retired public servant shall not receive any other remuneration from public funds in addition to his pension and the emolument of such one remunerative position. section 14 of the same law exempted lawmakers from the above provisions thus: in its application to public officers (a) members of legislative houses shall be exempted from the provisions of paragraph 4 of this code; and (b) the national assembly may by law exempt any cadre of public officers from the provisions of paragraph 4and 11 of this code if it appears to it that their position in the public service is below the rank which it considers appropriate for the application of the provisions. 3. research methodology the objective of this study is to examine dimension of poverty and income inequality in nigeria, the descriptive methods of data analysis with the application of lorenz curve. lorenz curve is an instrument to analyze curve, the numbers of income recipients are plotted on the horizontal axis, not in absolute terms but in cumulative percentages. the vertical axis shows the share of total income received by each percentage of population. the cumulative is up to 100%, meaning that both axes are equally long. the entire figure is enclosed in a square and a diagonal line is drawn from the lower left corner (the origin) of the square to the upper right corner. at every point on that diagram, the percentage of income received is exactly equal to the percentage of income recipients for example; the point halfway along the length of the diagonal represents 84 www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 50% of the income being distributed to exactly 50% of the population. the more the lorenz curve line is away from the diagonal (perfect equality), the greater the degree of inequality represented. 4. poverty indicators the major component in the computation of relative poverty measurement is the household expenditure. expenditure refers to all goods and services for use of the household. it also includes all monetary transactions such as donations, savings, esusu contribution. poverty line is a measure that divides the poor from non-poor. using the mean per capita household expenditure one-third of it gives (separate) the extreme or core poor from the rest of the population while two-third of the mean per capita expenditure separate the moderate poor from the rest of the population. the accumulation of the core poor and moderate poor gives the poor population while the non-poor are the population greater than two-third of the population. in the course of computing the poverty profile for nigeria using the harmonized nigeria living standard survey, all the above approaches have been adopted. though the use of country adult equivalent and household size seems to be the current method in the computation of absolute (objective) poverty measure, the nbs adopted per capita expenditure (total expenditure/household size) just for consistency. absolute poverty measure used the per capita expenditure approach. however, the measurement of poverty is about individuals in poverty, hence the choice of per capita expenditure which will estimate the population as against adult-equivalent which under-estimate the population. for clarity, it is necessary to state the different measures and what they translate in monetary. the poverty lines for each of the measures are as follows:  food poverty line: this food poverty is an aspect of absolute poverty measure which considers only food expenditure for the affected households.  absolute poverty line: this is the second step in absolute (objective) poverty measure. here, this method considers both food expenditure and nonfood expenditure using the per capita expenditure approach  the relative poverty line: this line separates the poor from the non-poor. all persons whose per capita expenditure is less than the above are considered to be poor while those above the stated amount are considered to be non-poor.  the dollar per day poverty line: this measures, consider all individuals whose expenditure per day is less than a dollar per day using the exchange rate of naira to dollar.  the subjective poverty measure is the perception of the citizenry. it is neither related to per capita expenditure of household nor the country adult equivalent scale.  another critical measure of poverty is the gini coefficient (inequality measurement). this measure can explain the spread of income or expenditure yet cannot explain increase or decrease of individuals or persons in poverty. 5. data presentation and analysis table 1: nigerian poverty by sector sector food poor absolute poor relative poor dollar per day urban 26.7 52.0 61.8 52.4 rural 48.3 66.1 73.2 66.3 table 2: analysis of nigerian poverty by geographical region zone food poor absolute poor relative poor dollar per day north central 38.6 59.5 67.5 59.7 north east 51.5 69.0 76.3 69.1 north west 51.8 70.0 77.7 70.4 south east 41.0 58.7 67.0 59.2 south-south 35.5 55.9 63.8 56.1 south west 25.4 49.8 59.1 50.1 source: nbs survey 2010 table 3: dimension of nigeria population in poverty 2004 (%) 2010 (%) 2011 (%) estimated population (million) 126.3 163 168 relative poverty 54.4 69 71.5 absolute poverty 54.7 60.9 61.9 dollar per day 62.8 61.2 62.8 85 www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 table 4: analysis of poverty by region and state food poverty absolute poverty moderately poor dollar per day food poor non poor poor non poor poor sector urban 26.7 73.3 52.0 48.0 rural 48.3 51.7 66.1 33.9 zone north central 38.6 61.4 59.5 40.5 north east 51.5 48.5 69.0 31.0 north west 51.8 48.2 70.0 30.0 south east 41.0 59.0 58.7 41.3 south south 35.5 64.5 55.9 44.1 south west 25.4 74.6 49.8 50.2 state abia 30.5 69.5 57.4 42.6 adamawa 55.4 44.6 74.2 25.8 akwaibom 35.6 64.4 53.7 46.3 anambra 34.2 65.8 56.8 43.2 bauchi 54.1 45.9 73.0 27.0 bayelsa 23.3 76.7 47.0 53.0 benue 48.5 51.5 67.1 32.9 borno 33.2 66.8 55.1 44.9 cross-rivers 46.4 53.6 52.9 47.1 delta 42.8 57.2 63.3 36.7 ebonyi 63.5 36.5 73.6 26.4 edo 39.4 60.6 65.6 34.4 ekiti 35.8 64.2 52.4 47.6 enugu 52.7 47.3 62.5 37.5 gombe 71.5 28.5 74.2 25.8 imo 33.3 66.7 50.5 49.5 jigawa 71.1 28.9 74.1 25.9 kaduna 41.7 58.3 61.5 38.5 kano 48.3 51.7 65.6 34.4 katsina 56.2 43.8 74.5 25.5 kebbi 47.0 53.0 72.0 28.0 kogi 50.1 49.9 67.1 32.9 kwara 38.1 61.9 61.8 38.2 lagos 14.6 85.4 48.6 51.4 nassarawa 26.8 73.2 60.4 39.6 niger 20.4 79.6 33.8 66.2 ogun 41.8 58.2 62.3 37.7 ondo 36.1 63.9 45.7 54.3 osun 19.5 80.5 37.9 62.1 oyo 24.6 75.4 51.8 48.2 plateau 44.0 56.0 74.1 25.9 rivers 26.3 73.7 50.4 49.6 sokoto 56.6 43.4 81.2 18.8 taraba 45.2 54.8 68.9 31.1 yobe 58.5 41.5 73.8 26.2 zamfara 44.4 55.6 70.8 29.2 fct 32.5 67.5 55.6 44.4 source: nbs survey 2010 86 www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 table 5: derived subjective poverty measure core poor moderate poor non-poor total sector urban 36.3 56.2 7.5 100.0 rural 53.5 41.2 5.3 100.0 total 46.7 47.2 6.1 100.0 north central benue 63.0 32.7 4.3 100.0 kogi 38.0 58.7 3.3 100.0 kwara 40.4 57.0 2.6 100.0 nassarawa 34.0 60.0 6.1 100.0 niger 32.0 59.6 8.4 100.0 plateau 38.7 55.9 5.4 100.0 fct abuja 42.4 55.6 2.1 100.0 total 42.4 52.8 4.8 100.0 north east damawa 56.7 39.2 4.1 100.0 bauchi 49.3 41.9 8.7 100.0 borno 45.6 51.3 3.1 100.0 gombe 50.0 46.3 3.7 100.0 taraba 64.4 29.8 5.8 100.0 yobe 46.4 49.7 3.9 100.0 total 51.6 43.5 4.9 100.0 north west jigawa 35.6 56.0 8.4 100.0 kaduna 52.4 38.2 9.5 100.0 kano 53.4 40.8 5.8 100.0 katsina 48.6 46.2 5.2 100.0 kebbi 46.2 46.3 7.5 100.0 sokoto 31.9 59.4 8.7 100.0 zamfara 52.6 43.6 3.8 100.0 total 47.3 45.8 6.9 100.0 south east abia 63.0 30.3 6.7 100.0 anambra 47.6 45.0 7.4 100.0 ebonyi 79.1 15.2 5.7 100.0 enugu 49.4 42.2 8.4 100.0 imo 67.0 30.4 2.6 100.0 total 59.0 34.8 6.2 100.0 south south akwa ibom 50.4 43.3 6.3 100.0 bayelsa 67.6 28.6 3.8 100.0 c/ river 69.6 26.0 4.4 100.0 delta 57.1 36.2 6.7 100.0 edo 33.7 59.1 7.2 100.0 rivers 57.9 33.9 8.2 100.0 total 54.3 39.2 6.6 100.0 south west ekiti 45.6 51.1 3.3 100.0 lagos 24.8 66.2 9.0 100.0 ogun 24.6 69.2 6.3 100.0 ondo 52.3 44.2 3.5 100.0 87 www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 osun 25.4 65.3 9.3 100.0 oyo 46.0 49.5 4.5 100.0 total 34.4 59.1 6.5 100.0 source: nbs survey 2010 table 6: household assessment of livelihood very poor poor moderate fairly rich rich total sector urban 6.1 30.1 56.2 6.3 1.2 100.0 rural 11.6 41.9 41.2 4.5 0.8 100.0 total 9.5 37.2 47.2 5.2 0.9 100.0 north central benue 12.6 50.4 32.7 3.8 0.5 100.0 kogi 5.8 32.2 58.7 2.9 0.4 100.0 kwara 3.8 36.6 57.0 2.4 0.2 100.0 nasarawa 7.0 26.9 60.0 5.9 0.2 100.0 niger 6.9 25.1 59.6 7.7 0.7 100.0 plateau 7.6 31.1 55.9 4.0 1.4 100.0 fct 3.3 39.0 55.6 1.3 0.8 100.0 total 7.3 35.1 52.8 4.2 0.6 100.0 north east adamawa 10.2 46.6 39.2 3.5 0.6 100.0 bauchi 7.1 42.3 41.9 8.1 0.6 100.0 borno 3.9 41.7 51.3 2.4 0.7 100.0 gombe 7.5 42.6 46.3 2.9 0.8 100.0 taraba 10.1 54.3 29.8 5.4 0.4 100.0 yobe 11.0 35.4 49.7 3.3 0.5 100.0 total 7.8 43.8 43.5 4.3 0.6 100.0 north west jigawa 4.9 30.7 56.0 7.3 1.0 100.0 kaduna 8.8 43.5 38.2 9.0 0.5 100.0 kano 11.5 41.9 40.8 5.2 0.6 100.0 katsina 7.9 40.8 46.2 4.5 0.7 100.0 kebbi 6.6 39.6 46.3 5.3 2.2 100.0 sokoto 8.6 23.3 59.4 7.5 1.1 100.0 zamfara 15.3 37.2 43.6 2.8 1.0 100.0 total 9.3 38.0 45.8 6.0 0.9 100.0 south east abia 15.8 47.2 30.3 4.9 1.8 100.0 anambra 10.1 37.5 45.0 5.1 2.2 100.0 ebonyi 27.6 51.4 15.2 5.2 0.5 100.0 enugu 13.2 36.2 42.2 7.7 0.8 100.0 imo 20.3 46.7 30.4 1.8 0.8 100.0 total 16.3 42.8 34.8 4.9 1.3 100.0 south south akwaibom 14.0 36.4 43.3 4.5 1.8 100.0 bayelsa 32.6 35.0 28.6 1.7 2.1 100.0 cross river 17.0 52.7 26.0 3.7 0.7 100.0 delta 13.6 43.5 36.2 6.0 0.7 100.0 edo 3.9 29.8 59.1 6.1 1.1 100.0 rivers 12.0 45.9 33.9 6.2 1.9 100.0 total 13.6 40.6 39.2 5.2 1.4 100.0 88 www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 south west ekiti 8.0 37.6 51.1 2.7 0.6 100.0 lagos 4.3 20.5 66.2 8.3 0.7 100.0 ogun 2.7 21.8 69.2 5.2 1.0 100.0 ondo 5.9 46.4 44.2 3.4 0.0 100.0 osun 1.9 23.6 65.3 7.0 2.3 100.0 oyo 7.6 38.3 49.5 3.9 0.6 100.0 total 4.9 29.4 59.1 5.7 0.8 100.0 source: nbs survey 2010 table 7: income inequality income inequality % change from national 0.4296 0.447 4.1 state abia 0.3524 0.3968 12.6 adamawa 0.4414 0.4339 -1.7 akwaibom 0.3645 0.4381 20.2 anambra 0.3534 0.3803 7.6 bauchi 0.4705 0.3348 -28.9 bayelsa 0.3333 0.337 1.1 benue 0.3888 0.4069 4.6 borno 0.3604 0.3841 6.7 cross-rivers 0.3977 0.4369 9.8 delta 0.3582 0.4698 31.1 ebonyi 0.3598 0.425 18.1 edo 0.3742 0.4177 11.6 ekiti 0.3695 0.4831 30.7 enugu 0.3976 0.4273 7.5 gombe 0.3652 0.4217 15.5 imo 0.3844 0.425 10.6 jigawa 0.3368 0.3976 18.1 kaduna 0.3668 0.4005 9.2 kano 0.375 0.4692 25.1 katsina 0.4174 0.374 -10.4 kebbi 0.3046 0.3259 7 kogi 0.4914 0.4145 -15.7 kwara 0.4848 0.3594 -25.9 lagos 0.504 0.3719 -26.2 nassarawa 0.3494 0.34 -2.7 niger 0.3665 0.3675 0.3 ogun 0.3984 0.4076 2.3 ondo 0.3274 0.3869 18.2 osun 0.3482 0.3856 10.7 oyo 0.3295 0.3923 19.1 plateau 0.4242 0.3995 -5.8 rivers 0.4052 0.4614 13.9 sokoto 0.3574 0.355 -0.7 taraba 0.3664 0.5241 43 yobe 0.3283 0.523 59.3 zamfara 0.3506 0.3397 -3.1 fct 0.4062 0.5116 26 source: nbs survey 2010 89 www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 6. findings of the study  food poverty line is n39, 759.49.  absolute poverty line is n54, 401.16, while the total expenditure of food and non-food produce a poverty incidence of 60.2 percent or 89,096,000 nigerians living in poverty.  the relative poverty line is n66, 802.20 while relative poverty measure showed that 69% or 112,470,000 of nigerians are living in poverty.  the dollar per day poverty line is n54, 750, while cpi and the exchange rate it gave n59.2 to one us$1. when annualized, it gives a poverty incidence of 56.6%  the core poor is 46.7 percent, moderate poor is 47.2 percent while the non poor is 6.1 percent  gini coefficient was 0.4296 and was 0.4470 indicating that inequality increased by 4.1 percent nationally.  subjective poverty rate: the incidence of poverty was 75.5 percent; however the perception index of household living in poverty had risen to 92.5 percent. poverty rate 100 90 80 60 59 40 30 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 figure1: lorenz curve for nigeria showing income distribution according to class (upper, middle, upper middle, and lower classes) lower class this is primarily comprised of lower-level citizens, white-collar workers. these workers are typically not educated and lack the graduate degrees needed to advance to higher levels of employment, or have a degree but remain unemployed but manage to put food on its table. income for these workers generally falls between n160,500 and n200,000. this category is trapped in the poverty rate of 69% of the total population. middle class they typically have post-graduate degrees and work at high-level, white-collar positions. they are mostly civil servant, traders and vocational professional: household income for these workers is often above n1m naira annually, 10% of nigerian adult population is in this class. upper middle class these professional class workers earn enough to be in the top one-third of nigeria’s incomes. they earn above n4m naira annually, nigeria have 15% of this category. upper class this income level is what is commonly called the high class. this category is mainly occupied by politician and business moguls, those that control the nigeria oil money and children of nigerian past leaders. 90 www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 100 90 0 70 60 594 0 30 20 income inequality in nigeria 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 figure 2: plot of difference between share of income the highest 20%, lowest 20% and lowest 10% 100 90 80 70 60 59 40 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 figure 3: plot of difference between share of income the highest 20% and the lowest 20% 91 www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 figure 4: plot of difference between share of income held by the highest 10% and the lowest 10% according to nbs report 2018, inequality in nigeria worsened between 2004 and 2013 but improved in 2016 using either the gini coefficient or theil. inequality as measured by the gini worsened from 0.356 in 2004 to 0.41 in 2013 but improves to 0.391 in 2016. using thiel, inequality worsened from 0.217 in 2003 to 0.395 in 2013 but improved to 0.31 in 2016. with respect to consumption shares (and using consumption as a proxy for income), in 2004, the bottom 10% (poorest of the poor) of the population consumed 2.56% of goods and services, while the top 10% (super rich) consumed 26.59% of all goods and services. the richest 10% were responsible for 26.59% of national expenditure or income in 2016. this increased to 33.72% in 2013 but decreased to 31.09% in 2016. the top 20% were responsible for 42.40% of national income/expenditure in 2004. this increased to 48.28% in 2013 but declined to 46.63% in 2016. while no agreed standard definition of the nigerian middle class exists, for the purpose of this report we have classified decile 01-03 as the lower class, decile 04-07 as the middle class and decile 08-10 as the upper class. accordingly, the upper class was responsible for 58.39% of national income/expenditure down from 59.42% in 2013. the share of the upper class in national income had been rising between 2004 and 2013 before reducing in 2016. the middle class on the other hand accounted for 30.26% of national income/expenditure in 2016, higher than 29.14% in 2013. the share of the middle class had been declining between 2004 and 2013 in favor of the higher class but that reversed in 2016. finally, the lower class accounted for 11.35% of national income/expenditure in 2016 lower than 11.43% in 2013.the biggest gainers of income/expenditure shares between 2013 and 2016 has therefore been the middle class, while the lower-class share remained constant while the high-class shares reduced. this widening gap between the rich and the poor in nigeria is contrary to kuznets’ hypothesis. 7. conclusion and recommendation despite the fact that nigerian economy is paradoxically growing, the proportion of nigerians living in poverty is increasing every year. the proportion of the population living below the poverty line increased significantly over the past three decades despite policies formulated over time to reduce poverty and income inequality in the country. the increasing rate of poverty can be trace to the politicization of politics, embezzlement of public funds and capital flight. it is imperative that the management of national wealth and the reduction of poverty are the key questions of political economy all over the world today, nigeria have to do more to bring its people out of poverty rate. according to nbs survey 2010, the increase in poverty at national levels show cased a number of variables at other levels of disaggregation. the poverty profile of nigeria recognizes the role of the world bank, the uk department of international development (dfid) other development partners in their effort in helping countries improve the 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 90 80 70 60 59 40 92 www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 availability of statistical data on which effective poverty monitoring and evaluation depend on. government at all levels should ensure implementable policies that will reduce poverty and the widen gap between the rich and the poor in nigeria. references adegoke, y. o., (2013). disparity in income distribution in nigeria: a lorenz curve and gini index approach. universal journal of management and social sciences 3 (7), 16 – 28. bokare, a. s., (2012). measuring the income inequality in nigeria: the lorenz curve and the gani-coefficient approach: american journal of economics 2 (1), 47 – 52. colander, d. c., (2005). economics 4th edition: mcgraw-hill irwin. gemmell, n.; morrissey, o. (2005).distribution and poverty impacts of tax structure reform in developing countries: how little we know in development policy review, l (2), 131-144. lucky, a.l., &nwosi, a.a.,(2016). crude oil production and nigerian economic growth: a test of dutch disease and the paradox of plenty: 1981 – 2014. iiard international journal of banking and finance research, 2 (2), 20 – 41. musgrave, r. a. (1959). the theory of public finance, mcgraw-hill, new york. nigeria bureau of statistics survey 2010 nigeria bureau of statistics report 2017 ogbeide, e. n. o., & agu, d. o., (2015). poverty and income inequality in nigeria: any causality? asian economic and financial review 5 (3), 439 – 452. olisa, m. s. o.,& obiukwu, j. i., (1992). rural development in nigeria: dynamics and strategies. awka, mckslink publishers. olowa, o. w., (2012). concept, measurement and causes of poverty: nigeria in perspective. american journal of economics 2 (1), 25 – 36. prasad n. (2008): policies for restructuring: the use o f taxes and social transfers. international institute for labour strokes (dp/194) 2008 prasad, n., (2008).policies for redistribution; the use of taxes and social transfer. international institute for labour studies;dp/194/2008. copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. this is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) american economic & social review; vol. 2, no. 2; 2018 issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 impact factor: 3.9 published by centre for research on islamic banking & finance and business, usa 1 the leading global experiences in the application of equitable economy and solidarity aied malika 1 & abdelli mohammed el amine 2 1 phd student 2 ex-coordinator world forum for economists correspondence: abdelli mohammed el amine, ex-coordinator world forum for economists, email: abdelli.univ@gmail.com received: june 1, 2018 accepted: june 29, 2018 online published: july 21, 2018 abstract this study is designed to highlight the important role of the growing role played by the equitable economy and solidarity in building a balanced and integrated into the society, characterized by the values of solidarity in the framework of the spirit of the voluntary contribution and the spirit of the personal initiative, as well as the principles of equity and social justice that seeks this economy established and consolidated, the study found that the pilot experiences for both the state of canada, ecuador, brazil, finland, france, spain, the reputation and excellence by relying primarily on the legal framework for this sector and organized the second degree of integration of all segments of society in the form of labor organizations for each category but every geographical region, the study recommended in the end to adopt the principle of integration and horizontal and vertical cooperation between these organizations in order to achieve effectiveness more competitive. keywords: equitable economy, solidarity, social economy, construction companies, cooperatives. 1. introduction working equitable economy and solidarity, to reconcile the principles of equity and social justice and economic development, and then reconciling economic and dynamic between the principles and objectives of humanitarian development, and based on this suggestion is if the third pillar, which should be based on a balanced economy with the public sector, and this implies the economy enough of the possibilities and the means to be able to mobilize and provide important wealth, managed to enhance opportunities for all segments of society and contribute to the strengthening of social cohesion and improving economic growth and is also reflects the total economic and social activities organized in the form of structured structures or groupings of persons moral and physical, in order to achieve the collective interest and is an independent activities subject for generating independent and democratic and participatory be engaged in freefrom the foregoing, we formulated the following problem: what are the pilot experiences in the application of equitable economy and solidarity? and we divided the research into two axes (02) key: 1-the conceptual framework of equitable economy and solidarity . 2-pilot experiences in the application of equitable economy and solidarity. 1-the conceptual framework of equitable economy and solidarity: 1.1 the concept of equitable economy and solidarity: we find a list of definitions as follows: "a set of activities of production and exchange and domestic savings and consumption patterns contribute to the economy of the obligations of citizens democracy " i is a social and economic order, which brings together organizations and companies that follow another economic doctrine (third sector) based on the values of the system of special provision." ii www.cribfb.com/journal/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 2; 2018 2 equitable economy and solidarity "is a concept that refers to the institutions and private organizations, associations and cooperatives of social nature and the synergy that feature the production of goods and services in the framework of its attempt to achieve the economic and social" iii 1.2 the principles of equitable economy and solidarity: we include a set of principles, as follows iv : a common set of values: and includes several common principles based on the values of solidarity and freedom and equality. freedom of accession:each person has the capacity to join in the organization of the social economy and solidarity, and to withdraw, as it management and governance based on the group and participate, where the leaders of which are elected and appointed bodies are making decisions based on the principle of (one person one vote). targeting profit:be limited or non-existent any all the surpluses to be invested in the project of social activity. the principle of solidarity and responsibility:working equitable economy and solidarity organizations on the implementation of procedures and the requirement to operate within a specific approach. table no. 1:the principles of solidarity and fair economy participate democratic governance of the fundamental values of social economy and solidarity. the participation of those involved in the economy of users and beneficiaries in decision-making. the joint responsibility. empowerment of the beneficiaries through the existing working methods to participate. equality between people in opinion and vote. solidarity an innovative alternative to the traditional economic models of global economies to benefit the most disadvantaged and marginalized groups and the poorest countries is difficult to achieve in the framework of the regular economic plans and the neo-liberal or traditional development assistance programs and the need for flexibility and innovation to direct resources and benefits to beneficiaries and shareholders. voluntary participation and independence participate voluntarily in the organizations of the social economy and solidarit starting from the base of the approach to the establishment of the institutions based on the social needs of an independent economy in nature to give opportunities for the communities to establish projects and obtain skills and resources and employment benefits and cannot be achieved through a market economy. the public interest the promotion of a culture of community based on cooperation and mutual support and the sharing of responsibilities, the main goal is the growth and well-being of society without derogating from the well-being of individuals within the group. source: peter putting ;social and solidarity economy beyond the fringe ;first published ; zed books ;london ;2015 ;p88 1.3 the objectives of equitable economy and solidarity can be reference to several objectives as follows : v to promote the principle of solidarity:when is commonly the principle of solidarity among the members of society in a codified form, and organizer of the earning issues which unites individuals for power and embraced by the members of the others. build a strong social cohesion: and what qualifies the solidarity economy organizations to play a big role in bridging this gap and mitigate the effects of the economic patterns and social conditions prevailing in the world today. www.cribfb.com/journal/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 2; 2018 3 the development of the local community to consult local citizens: to help themselves through the development of skills in organizations makes it easier for them to the process of joint participation through empowerment and work patterns, social act which is used as part of the strategies of the development of the local community. effective means to bridge the gap between the economies and the economies: reducing the decent work deficit citizen and improve productivity and competitiveness, it is through the work of the economy others belong to the organization of the social economy can achieve the scope and achieve a minimum level of social protection through mutual assistance and solidarity. 2-the pilot experiences in the application of equitable economy and solidarity 2.1 experience of canada: 2.1.1 legal recognition: canada is considered one of the pioneers in the application of equitable economy and solidarity, and also proactive in finding legal rules regulating this sector, which have enlisted it as follows vi : i knew canada during the year 2013 the official entry in the global movement that seeks to recognize equitable economy and solidarity, in this context, the national assembly approved on 10 october 2013 unanimously adopted the law on the economy of solidarity and the act of quebec cooperatives and the arpels and 8,324 non-profit organizations serve as components of the social economy, which is based on collective values have components that also called the construction of the social economy, is the ability to mobilize the forces of the economic center and become an important lever of the collective revolution, although the legal recognition of the social economy is not a new phenomenon in quebec but it contributes to the country's developmentthe quebec for cooperation and synergy, which was founded in 1940 democratic body available to the cooperative movement and the arpels in quebec and lowland terrain this body the various federations of cooperatives and the sectoral and regional arpels in quebec, it should also be noted that the field of cooperation in quebec very varied include multiple forms of cooperatives. article 3 of this law that equitable economy and solidarity" is a total economic activities carried out in the framework of the construction, social purposes based its activities in particular on the sale or exchange of goods and services, and to be used in accordance with the following principles: entrepreneurship seeks to cater to the needs of its members, or the needs of the group. ntrepreneurship and not subject to the control of judgmental, which concerns the decision of the public body or bodies, according to the meaning of the law on accessing documents of public bodies and the protection of personal information. ndicate the rules applicable to contractors' employees to follow the democratic process in the decision. revents the rules applied to entrepreneurship and the distribution of surpluses on their activities or allow the distribution of surpluses to members, according to the operations that take place between any of the member states and between the contractors, and the application of the first paragraph, the end social value according to the contribution of entrepreneurship in improving the well-being of its members, or the welfare of the community and create jobs, is a social institution each contractor activities are mainly on the sale or exchange of goods or services that have been used in accordance with the principles set forth in the first paragraph of the cooperative party or any other body not-for-profit organizations . table no.2.the overall cooperative models in quebec consumer cooperatives producer cooperatives workers' cooperatives workers' cooperatives shareholders solidarity cooperatives member states self-persons natural persons (independent workers or companies) natural persons (users) natural persons (users in the company shares) natural persons and/or companies 3 categories of the members of the workers, members of support users the needs of member states (a relationship of use) personal objects: financial services, nutrition, the professional needs of supply, processing, marketing, create jobs maintain job opportunities (buying products / services required) users www.cribfb.com/journal/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 2; 2018 4 housing, services and burial services productionrelated costsharing, the sharing of buildings and/or create jobs) customers member states member states no member of the there is no to any customer the members of and/or nonmembers the sectors of production activities the finance, housing the burial, the middle school, traditional farming, industry, professional services, transport the forest sector and the ambulances modern technologies and industrialization home help services, provide cultural treatments source ; andizej klimczuk ;the solidarity economy alternative ;internationtional sociology reviews ;vol31 ;issue2 ; canada ;2016 ;p170 2.1.2 solidarity economy funds: useful for canada, which analyzes the economy of solidarity funds, or people's funds and indicates a 1994 law on the people's funds to all persons moral and the full range of financial services vii : according to the principle of a collaborative system. to its members in the first place. under the supervision and democratic control of the french-speaking privately and resident in manitoba unless the text of the rule within the law otherwise. however, this definition does not include the people's funds outside the provinces. 2.1.3 the credit union: it is the moral person provides a full range of financial services viii : according to the principle of the cooperative system to its members in the first under the supervision and democratic control of new jersey in the first does not include this particular credit unions outside the territories s desjardins is a good example of the solidarity economy, where funds are one of the most important financial groups in canada and ranks first in the cooperative financial group in the country, and the fourth among the most secure financial institutions in north america and ranked 13 among the strongest financial institutions in the world, according to a bloomberg economic year 2017 2.1.4 contribution to the economy: the register of equitable economy and solidarity, considerable contributions in canada have enlisted it as follows ix : equitable economy and solidarity in canada in 2017 profits estimated at 1.5 billion canadian dollars, 171 million dollars have been distributed to the members of the cooperative, who number more than 6 million people, distributed over 400,000 contractors, as the distribution of 81 million on the municipal groups in the form of grants and donations. the construction sector provides the solidarity economy in quebec generally on the size of the important economic sectors (40, 3300 activities of the cooperative and mutual 7000 contractor working in 20 sectors active, 125,000 jobs) check about 26 million billion dollars transactions and is contributing to the gross domestic product by 8%. 2.2 ecuador: 2.2.1 legal recognition: ecuador is considered a forerunner in finding legal rules governing equitable sector of the economy and of solidarity, which have enlisted it as follows x : in ecuador equitable economy and solidarity, known under the name of popular economy and solidarity, where the constitution of the country on the principle of solidarity in article 283 "the economic system is a social collaboration and is considered as a subject of human rights and an end to him and heads the economy to achieve a dynamic balance between the community and the state and the market in harmony with nature and its goal is to ensure the production and re-production of physical and non-physical conditions that would allow for the good way of life and the economic system is composed of the public and private sectors and mixed forms of popular solidarity economic institutions and other prescribed by the constitution and the organization of popular economy in accordance with the constitution and it includes the cooperative sector and trade unionism and the local private sector www.cribfb.com/journal/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 2; 2018 5 table 3. a contribution to the national economy of ecuador ecuador the gross national product (billion dollars) the population (millions) the gross national product/ the individual (the dollar) the social economy and solidarity, and the operating rate the contribution of the social economy and solidarity, in the gross national product. 90 15.74 7205 60 %of the population in the year 2017 in the year 13 %2017 source :maria josé ruiz rivera ; reia lemaitre ;social entreprise in ecuador ;messe(movimiento de econimia social y solidaria del ecuador ;vol :39 ; issue 2 ;ecuador ;2017 ;p58 including that ecuador was among the first countries that introduced the principle of solidarity in its constitution, created a system of data on the framing of popular economy and solidarity . 2.3 brazil -1-3-2 legal recognition: brazil tried to establish legal rule governing equitable sector of the economy and of solidarity since it adopted the idea and that have gone through the following stages xi : the impact of the economic forum of solidarity in brazil, walid world social forum of 2003, established the country reviews of the state in the economy of solidarity given to paul singer brazilian view of the economy of solidarity. as a result, strengthen the legal arsenal in the country, the law of 19 june 2012 regarding procedures and administrative procedures for the exploitation of workers' cooperatives, and that this law will help to ensure that the rights of workers in cooperatives while the legal issues dealing with problems relating to the establishment of a false cooperatives. it has been a challenge faced by paul singer after bear responsibility for the portfolio of the first reviews of the state in the economy of solidarity lies in building public policy for the new economy, solidarity and determination of its landmarks, where brazil today on more than 400 active incubator and had designed the latter to promote equitable economy and solidarity, in brazil and promoting social innovation through partnership between academic and governmental junior and private sector companies, so the government provides funding for most of the projects and provide universities and offices and infrastructure, while the private sector companies, consulting services and adequate training, these networks to respond to the real social needs and encourage the creation of employment opportunities in the third sector and the development of technological and social fabric and enhance the skills of brazilian workers . regulations regarding the economy of solidarity is not called the contractors as much as called initiatives and, in order to avoid confusion between the contractors and distinguished from others and up to 21.859 related initiative solidarity economy and information system on the economy of solidarity is solidarity economy institutions, organizations: available on collectively. available on the nature of permanence with specific economic activities, even in the juvenile stage saving, marketing 2-3-2 the first fair trade system and of solidarity in the world: enabled the decree signed by brazilian president luis inacio da silva in november 2010 brazil or a national system of fair trade and solidarity in the world and constitute the national system of fair trade and solidarity group of the parameters to be followed during the implementation of public policy through the work of the advancement of the economy of solidarity in order to create jobs and income and strengthening the identity of fair trade, one of the goals of the national system of fair trade and solidarity as follows xii : . through the deployment of its perception and engage in the practices associated. www.cribfb.com/journal/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 2; 2018 6 2.3.3 contribution to the national economy: a multifaceted contribution to the national economy and can be summarized in the following elements xiii solidarity economy in brazil for the year 2016, the nrc 1687035 participants, including 63% males and 37% females and include these activities 2934 the city of which covers 52% of the brazilian territory at a rate of 48% of the cities and rural and 35% of urban and 17% village, urban cities in addition to the contribution of the solidarity economy in the creation of a significant number of job opportunities, it also contributes in the production of wheat for 75 percent and in milk production by 40% in general, such a contribution of up to 8% in the gross domestic product of brazil. table no. 4. the dimensions of the social economy and solidarity in brazil source : luciano medino macédo ;juliana vitoria messias bittecourt ;brazilain solidarity economy rural organization ; (u t f p r ) federal university of technology of parana ; vol :9 ;issue :2 ; 31 may 2017 ; parana ; brazil ; p13 2.4 finland: 2.4.1 legal recognition:on 28 december 2001 finland has adopted a law on cooperative institutions, however, the privacy of finland are reflected in the cooperative movement back to the end of the 19th century, and it is noteworthy that in the year 1901 finland was available to over 6,000 active cooperative xiv . 2.4.2 an important contribution to the economy: considered an important contribution to the national economy have enlisted it as follows : xv cooperatives have become in the year 2016 represents the 94.000 post job, representing other similar organizations 8500 and 106 of the organization while representing the association and similar organizations 84.600 and 130.000 structure. the number of jobs in the year gritty shantytown (187.200 positions represent 7.65% of the total work leading him and compared with the period 2002-2003, this percentage has risen at a rate of 12.78%) thanks to the association and other similar institutions and organizations: table no. 5.the finnish social economy 2016/2017 cooperatives and other similar organizations the arpel and other, similar organizations associations and other similar institutions and organizations farming cooperatives: (32284 post a job the year 2016, cooperative 167100 ; structure36) cooperative banks: (13234 post filling the year 2016 cooperative 1338100, structure, 251) users cooperatives: (94100 post filled years 2017, cooperative 3865400 , structure, 4628 a holistic insurance :(8072 post a job the year 2016, 73 the structure) mutual savings and credit:) 428 post a job the year 2016 and 33 structure) the total infrastructure: (130,000 structure, 84,600 post filled year 2016) source : sara calvos ; andres morales ; social and solidarity economy ; first published ; routlege ; new york ; 2017 ;p81 this new dynamic to add to the family of equitable economy and solidarity considers that economic activity in itself serve social message and not through profits achieved by each pattern is available from the contractors' great potential, according to the observatory of the superiority of the work for the year 2016 shows that finland featuring five types of integrated social institutions are as follows xvi : collective organizations economic activities solidarity practices cooperatives association unstructured groups solidarity funds symbiotic banks local exchange systems economic cooperation networks the construction of a self-measures the production of goods the provision of services marketing finance and loan consumption trade self-measures the fair price sustainability the groups the environment www.cribfb.com/journal/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 2; 2018 7 the protected centers: these are often protected professional institutions belonging to the municipalities and collective institutions and associations, primarily less and with the piece, the latter oversees the functioning and are places to work long term and highlight this experience, the extent of the strong commitment of the community about the marginalized persons to achieve an active social integration through work. the protected centers: these are often protected professional institutions belonging to the municipalities and collective institutions and associations, primarily less and with the piece, the latter oversees the functioning and are places to work long term and highlight this experience, the extent of the strong commitment of the community about the marginalized persons to achieve an active social integration through work the protected centers: these are often protected professional institutions belonging to the municipalities and collective institutions and associations, primarily less and with the piece, the latter oversees the functioning and are places to work long term and highlight this experience, the extent of the strong commitment of the community about the marginalized persons to achieve an active social integration through work the protected centers: these are often protected professional institutions belonging to the municipalities and collective institutions and associations, primarily less and with the piece, the latter oversees the functioning and are places to work long term and highlight this experience, the extent of the strong commitment of the community about the marginalized persons to achieve an active social integration through work often these professional institutions and municipal protected and collective institutions and associations, primarily less and with the piece, the latter oversees the functioning and are places to work long term and highlight this experience, the extent of the strong commitment of the community about the marginalized persons to achieve an active social integration through work. construction companies that belong to the association of persons interested in the status of the block: allow the discovery of new horizons in the world of disability and is an initiative related to women entrepreneurs, which belongs to the association is interested in persons in the case of obstruction, and it comes to some national or local associations, provide employment for the benefit of its members through the construction events belong to them the centers for unemployed youth: finland is available on more than 300 social center for the benefit of unemployed youth and these centers belong mainly to local groups, reflecting the objectives of these centers is to provide a career for young people the unemployed workers and non-educated or the development of professional qualifications, as well as finding a solution to the scourge of unemployment operating cooperatives : operating cooperatives adopted the legal form of the cooperative, which means that each member has one vote to ensure democratic participation in decision-making and strategic entrepreneurship fair is the distribution of surpluses to how part of the re-distributed to member states in the form of discount according to the work done by each one of them, the main goal of cooperatives operating in the reintegration of its members in the labor market, with the recognition of the contribution of each factor to an end. updated social cooperatives for the benefit of persons in a position to hinder: the return of the first experiments of this kind to the end of the 1980s of the last century and the social cooperatives in the beginning had taken legal form associations that established cooperative contracting and the social balance sheet of integrative and emphasize the spirit of business excellence of persons in a position to hinder and reflected the main objective in launching the process of strengthening capacity and is the process in which the individual needs and the development of the individual and the two are necessary . 2.5 spain: 2.5.1 legal recognition: for the fifth consecutive european economy, the economy is fair and solidarity among the practices which have characterized the wealth creation for many years, so we are trying to provide steps which has enabled the country to send legal rules and social economy as follows xvii : the country recognized this version of economic regulation in the constitution of 1978 and the resulting from the democratic transformation that i knew the country and refers to several regulations for equitable economy: cooperatives in article 2 and 129 and association in article 22 and article 34 institutions and in 1992 decided to www.cribfb.com/journal/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 2; 2018 8 solidarity economy actors in the events of the spanish confederation of the social economy cepes contracts to ensure better representation of the organizations. it also made possible the extensive reforms that have been assigned to independent groups to obtain fifteen legal text locally: the reforms relating to the so-called des esttatutos de autonomia and are the laws of the constituent assembly and inserted between the years 2006 and 2008 by local governments for each of andalusia; valencia; meeting .catalunya; lyon; argon. the charters of the social economy of andalusia 2002/ 2006 planned regional social economy in 2009. the plans guidelines for the development of the social economy in the baleares islands 2002/2007 aims . act no. 5/2011 of 29 march 2011 in article 2 equitable economy and solidarity in spain, including the following: "a set of activities of employers done well in the area of these bodies in accordance with the provisions contained in article 4 either serve the collective interest of its members or the general interest of economic, social, or both, and this law identified four principles against equitable economy and solidarity: social priority persons and end to capital. the distribution of the results according to labor or, where appropriate, forcing him to end social entrepreneurship. the advancement of the internal solidarity of the community. independence toward the authorities. 2.5.2 a significant contribution in the national economy: bodies are established by law no. 5/2011 of 29 march 2011 to the borders today 45093 organized is 2379994 and 547,298 in the year 2016 contributed to the private sector grew by 10.8 percent of the gross domestic product of spain also contributed to the creation of jobs through the absorption of labor estimated at 2.15 percent five percent of the active population in spain and highlight the most important contributions are as follows xviii : the number of federal bodies belonging to the spanish social economy contracts cepes today to 45 of the more than 200 independent supporting body with a total of 18.530.000 helpful staff, between these bodies and the confederal: spanish, the confederation of agricultural cooperatives and cooperatives and related work, companies work and the confederation of consumers and users. the arpel confederal spanish and indirectly al most 45.563 ; contractor24.597 cooperative, 19.393 workers11.322 company-owned, 7121 contractor association, 450 protected and framed 2nd center within the social economy, 391 mutual, 205, 198, 147m the integration of marine fishing, 124 social economy in other image 81-64, a social institution of the economy operates more than 3.215.000 people and represents the number of annual transactions exceeded 150.978 million euros for the year 2016 or 13 percent of the gross domestic product of spain the number of federal bodies belonging to the spanish social economy contracts cepes today to 45 of the more than 200 independent supporting body with a total of 18.530.000 helpful staff, between these bodies and the federal agricultural cooperatives: spanish, related federal work cooperatives, companies and consumers and users federal. the federal spanish arpel and indirectly al most 45.563 contractor cooperative24.597, 19.393 workers11.322 company-owned, 7121 contractor association, 450 protected and framed 2nd center within the social economy, 391 mutual, 205, the integration of marine fishing, 124 social economy in other image 81-64, a social institution of the economy operates more than 3.215.000 people and represents the number of annual transactions exceeded 150.978 million euros for the year 2016 or 13 percent of the gross domestic product of spain. 2.5.3 focus on cooperative mondragon: spain is one of the most important cooperatives in the world and is a cooperative mondragon and really are spanish special group consisting of 289 147m and cooperative and from 15 centers in the areas of finance, technology, industry and trade and education, and also holds the 80.321 people and achieved no. transactions reached 14.081 billion euros, and is divided into 15 centers and technology 289 the structure as follows : xix 147 company and its affiliates, 110 cooperatives, 13 an international agency, 10 bodies of coverage, 1 mutual one. based on the 14 billion euros number as the year 2016, the mondragon transactions contribute to the gross domestic product of the basque for 21.21 percent ratio, which constitutes about 1.5 percent of the gross domestic product of spain. on the operational level, the group 80321 ager, 43 percent of them were women in the amount of 0.35 percent of the active population in spain and about 30 percent of the active population in the equitable economy and spanish solidarity as reflected the solidarity of the cooperative nature of the distribution of the profits when achieved so: each cooperative allocates 2% of its sales of the solidarity fund each cooperative cardiac treadmill stress test is supported by the reserve fund, including the amount of 45 percent of the profit 2 percent of transactions number each cooperative allocates higher education (university of mondragon )10 percent placed at the disposal of the common fund to encourage the creation of new cooperatives or the developmentof cooperatives, which are in a better position to receive the workers living in difficult circumstances because of the crisis. www.cribfb.com/journal/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 2; 2018 9 2.6 france: 1-6-2 legal recognition:equitable economy and solidarity, most widely spread in the french scene is an important development, and we are trying to address the stages of its development as follows xx :: and if practices back to a long time, recognition of the cooperative movement and the arpel is not due to the year 1850 and is the year in which the law governing a collaborative and rescue companies should wait for 50 years to make the year 1901 the legal text, to the freedom of everyone in the establishment of associations, then issued the decision of synergy in 1945 and another law concerning cooperation in 1947. in the year 1980, the national committee to coordinate the activities of arpel and cooperatives and associations charter of equitable economy and caused the government ministerial delegation equitable economy, which became its name in 1991 from the charge of social innovation and the social economy to be renamed in 2006 commissariat for creativity and social experimentation and the social economy in the same year, the establishment of the supreme council of the social economy, which became the name in the year 2010 the supreme council of the social economy and solidarity, and in april 2014 carried the name reviews the state of the economy and social solidarity and led this new dynamic within the french government in july 2014 to the adoption of law no. 2014-856 concerning equitable economy and solidarity. the law of 31 july 2014 in the first article (01) that the equitable economy and solidarity," a formula for entrepreneurship and economic development compatible with all areas of human activity, which engaged persons subject to special law considerations and who have the following cumulative conditions: the goal of another non-profit sharing. democratic rule determined by and organized by the laws which refer to news and participation and which is only the extent of the contribution to the capital or the amount of the financial contribution for the partners and the action and the parties concerned the achievements of entrepreneurship. the profits are for the most part of the objective to maintain or develop entrepreneurial activity. the precautions necessary indivisible could not be distributed and could authorize the basic laws to bring that adds to the capital, the amounts deducted from the precautions that formed under this law. 2.6.2 contribution to the economy: is the bet of the economy fair and solidarity in france is very high, this incorporate as follows xxi : it represents (10 percent of the gross domestic product, occupies 2.4 million employees and provide 440,000 new jobs every 10 years, comprising about 200,000 completed infrastructure, where 68 percent of the assistance services inside homes and 60 percent of bank deposits, the year 2016) and activates the patrimony in health and insurance. the new law seeks to facilitate the process of financing the equitable economy and solidarity, it shows the renewal of the adoption of the name of the solidarity organization, which had existed before, and to allow accredited organizations accessing the provident funds of solidarity and is financed (10 percent at least of the amounts of solidarity the year 2016), the new law also gives new power to users action where the early notification procedure in the case of the sale of the organization with fewer than 250 employees and the balance sheet of companies and collaborative, participatory processes with a view to providing assistance to resume the work of the organizations of the working party, it also approves the reform of institutions equitable economy and solidarity, through the reform of the supreme council of the equitable economy and solidarity, as well as to the establishment of a higher council for cooperation on which the minister in charge of the opinion the total cooperation of the draft legislative text or organizational on how cooperatives work or unions 3. conclusion reflected the recognition in the social economy and solidarity, for many of the countries on the level of the constitution and whether some of the constitutions referred explicitly to this recognition, other constitutions referred to implicitly. as successful practices in this area, the adoption of a national law remains the need to develop a common legislation of total local entities composed of equitable sector of the economy and of solidarity. which contributed largely to devote recognized, who helped him to develop and to occupy an increasing place in the national economy and the state's leaders in the field. sector, identifying its principles and instruments of intervention and support its www.cribfb.com/journal/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 2; 2018 10 equitable distribution of wealth and currency customer relations, economic and social organization in accordance with the principle of self-governance. at improving the effectiveness of the equitable sector of the economy and of solidarity, highlights the example of ecuador, brazil and spain and the importance given to these institutions. -structured to an orderly structured sector, where the authorities of these initiatives toward the institutions that the activities and services of social utility, working to create jobs in its endeavor to promote the economy and development, and that some of these institutions are sent in special cases to the area to support the voluntary institutions and projects associated with the target. actors, and this is the reason why the international practices occur catch up to the presence of the bodies into the place with the aim of providing support to local actors. important role in local development from being designed to achieve greater equity in the conventional trade, the fair trade have contributed largely to the creation of opportunities for groups living in difficult economic and is regarded as a lever for development, and has enabled many of them to overcome the negative effects resulting from the economic crisis of 2008. this latter produced and re-production of physical and non-physical conditions that provide the correct how to live for the benefit of society as a whole, and also proposes aims to give human beings first and solidarity within society, this gathering aims to provide solutions to the social challenges facing the members of the community in the framework of the independent of the public authorities. because of the great contribution in the product raw internal, but in terms of the principle of solidarity which the balance sheet 4.recommendations: improving the competitiveness of the cooperatives: these can improve competitiveness by adopting a set of roads, but for equitable economy and solidarity, we adopt the method of horizontal integration and public official: horizontal integration: cooperation between the enterprises belonging to the same sector at the level of the cooperative sector activities makes strong sector and integrate sectoral and geographical dimensions. vertical integration: the development of the relations of cooperation between suppliers, producers and distributors in order to improve the overall effectiveness. the widespread use of technology and communication: promoting the use of information technology and means of communication in the conduct of such cooperatives, thereby helping to reduce the burden on operators and reducing production time and rely on the quality assurance mechanisms. cooperation between the current tests: if this potential through horizontal integration and equitable public sector of the economy and of solidarity for all of canada and france, finland, ecuador, brazil and spain, the horizontal integration be in partnership between the enterprises belonging to the same sector and for the development of the relations of cooperation between alamoudi suppliers, producers and distributors in these countries. the assessment of the current tests: not only at the level of each country, but also on the level of the forum for the purpose of analysis of each mosque, based on experience with the events of the comparison and out strengths and weaknesses and solutions, and the prospects for the future. taking advantage of experience: for the states which still lags behind in this sector can see these experiences in several ways either to participate in an international forum that brings together all these tests and the use of a broad field, or a forum with one of these states, and the best solutions for field inspection or adoption of the composition by trainers, and therefore whatever method is open to identify the advantages and disadvantages of all the experience and strengths and weaknesses and to establish a local strategy to avoid recorded flaws in the previous test. www.cribfb.com/journal/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 2; 2018 11 the start: do not be a breakthrough in the adoption of the equitable sector of the economy and of solidarity through the important elements: legal recognition : and this depends on the political will to embrace this idea through the preparation of legal texts, including the legal forms of cooperatives or construction, and the actors and the organization of work and responsibilities, and also methods of accountability, inclusiveness of the society, especially the poor and marginalized and disadvantaged groups and people with special needs and thus the most important objective for which established the equitable economy and solidarity, and is social justice and the spirit of solidarity and is paying an important moral and an incentive for competitiveness with other categories. references i eric dacheux ; daniel goujon ;the solidarity economy : an alternative strategy ; international social science journal ;volume 62 ;issue 2 ; marchjune 2011 ; p206 ii jean louis laville ; the solidarity economy : an international movement ; rccs annual review ; n° :2 ; 2012 ;p85 iii marco bellucci ; luca bagnoli ;performance measurement in solidarity economy organisations ;coperative economics annales journal ; volume 83 ; issue 1 ; march 2012 ;p27 iv sara calvo ;andres morales ; the social and solidarity economy in ecuador ; mincaliving in ecuador journal ;volume 43 ; issue 2 ; july 2017 ;p34 v heloisa primavera ; social currencies and solidarity economy ; journal of labor and society ; vol 13 ; issue 1 ; ; marche 2013 ; p46 vi yvon poirer ; emily kawano ; visions related to building the solidarity economy and related alternative in north america ;aloe (alliance for a responsible plural solidarity based economy) ; 23 and 24 july 2017 ; canada ; p86 vii utting peter ; van dijk nadine ; social and solidarity economy ; unrisd(united nations research intitute for social delelopement) ;vol10 ;issue2 :2017 ; p56 viii somia tellorozas ;inclusive innovations througt social and solidarity economy initiatives ; international journal of voluntary and organizations ; vol :27 ; issue : 1 ; montreal ; canada ; 2017 ; p71 ix sarah amyot ; developing a nationl framwork for assessing social economy content in canadian senior secondary schools ; center canadien d’economie sociale; canada ; 21 and 22 may 2017 ; p 120 x andres morales ; the social and solidarity economy in ecuador ; journal.opendition.org ;watch in (21/12/2017) ; p4 xi luiz lnàcio gaiger ; adriane ferrarini ; social entroprise in brazil ; international comparative social enterprise models (i c s e m) ;vol :10 ;issue 1 ;agust2017 ;p28 xii carlos aurélio pimenta de faria ; humanism and solidarity in brazilian foreign policy ; brazillain political science review ;vol :7 ;issue 2 ;brazil ;2017 ;p26 xiii jeseph schwartz ;from domestic to global solidarity the building of social solidarity ; journal of social philosophy ; vol :38 ;issue 1 ; 2017 ; p134 xiv ryan nehring ; social protection in finland ; international centre for inclusive ;vol28 ; issue 2 ;growth ; august 2017 ;p16 xv matt noyes ; rescognizing emergent solidarity economy ; g e o ( www.geo.coop) watched in (27/12/2017) ;p4 www.cribfb.com/journal/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 2; 2018 12 xvi naci gindogan ; inclusive and sustainable development and the role of social and solidarity economy ; 12 th international conerence of a s e c u ;eskisehir ; turky ; septembre 29-30 ; 2017 ;p21 xvii jona marques ; social and solidarity economy ; (u n r i s d ) united nations research intitate for social development ; geneva ; switzeland ;6-7 may 2017 ; p18 xviii catalina quiroz nino ;maria angeles ; social solidarity economy sustainable development gools ; (u n e d ) unineversided macional de educacion a distancia ; madrid ; spain ; 29 september 2017 ; vol 9 ;issue 2 ; p 19 xix monica montes gavilàn ; social solidarity economy ; journal of economic behaviour and organisation ; vol 3 ; issue 1 ; p 72 xx yvon poirier ; social solidarity economy and related concepts ; www.socioeco.org/fiche;watched in (20/12/2017) ;p2 xxi jean louis laville ; francesca petrella ; social entreprise in france ; at the crossroads of the social economy ;solidarity economy ; intermational comarative social entreprise models ;n° :34 ;france ; 2017 ; p 25 copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. this is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr american economic & social review; vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 published by centre for research on islamic banking & finance and business, usa 8 nigeria and west africa’s silk road: the new crescent economy yusuf ibrahim gamawa phd olusegun obasanjo centre for african studies national open university abuja, nigeria email: yusufgamawa@ymail.com abstract the ancient city of kano that is now located in north western nigeria was an important player in the trans-saharan trade that flourished before the advent of the europeans. the transsahara trade also predates the danfodio jihad that established the caliphate system across northern nigeria. the trade was seen to have involved many of the sahel states in present times, but most importantly cities that distinguished themselves in the production of various commodities like timbuktu, gao, djenne and sijilmasa in morocco. since the demise of such trade, many cities that have hitherto been part of it, have lost relevance in the economic affairs and have been struggling to create new economies and have not been able to do so in modern times. kano had been the economic base of northern nigeria and its economy had supported the entire north of nigeria as a result of the transsahara trade. kano became known for trade across the sahel and the sahara for its textile and other services that include dyeing of clothing that were sent to as far as morocco. the paper takes a look at the ancient sahel economy and kano’s involvement and insists that for the economy of northern nigeria and that of kano to be revamped, a new strategy will have to be developed. this strategy will look at reviving the ancient trade links that existed before and make for the construction of infrastructure, industries and necessary tourism potentials available. and that it is only by doing so that kano as city will take its proper place among cities like timbuktu and gao, and impact on the economy of northern nigeria and by extension the nigerian nation. keywords: trans-sahara, trade, nigeria, kano, sahel, crescent economy. 1. introduction the sahel region stretches across the south central latitudes of northern africa, between the atlantic ocean and the red sea. it includes parts of northern senegal, southern mauritania, central mali, northern burkina faso, south of algeria, niger, northern nigeria, central chad, central and southern sudan, north of south sudan, eritrea, cameroun, central african republic and the north of ethiopia. it covers an area of about 5,700 km and is considered as a transitional eco region that consists of semi-arid grasslands, savannah, steppes and thorn shrubs lands that are located between the sudan savannah in the south and to the north, the sahara. it is a fertile region and agriculture contributes heavily to the gdp of most of the countries located in the sahel region presently. there is absolutely no doubt that relations exist between the people and economy of certain parts of northern nigeria and parts of the sahel region in the past, present and definitely in the future. however, there have been changes overtime in such economic relations between for example, kano, a major player in trans-saharan and trade and gao or timbuktu now in mali. in fact no many in nigeria or across africa or the sahel region understand and appreciate the significance of these trade relations that have existed over several hundreds of years. unfortunately, cities in the north of nigeria have lost out in the lucrative trade flourishing along this once highly important area of trade and learning in africa. kano, katsina and parts of borno have been the main beneficiaries of the trans-saharan trade that flourished in the sahel and linked these cities with other cities in the region and even beyond. there also seems to be a decline in trading activities in general along this ancient trade route that many have found difficult to explain, and it has remained difficult to revive. today the sahel region is seen as a dry, impoverished region as a result of several reasons that range from desertification, food insecurity to threats of islamist terrorist. the region is general characterized by violence and insecurity. droughts of the past years and desertification has led to a drastic decline in agricultural production across the region [robert muggah, 2019]. it is this same region that was in the past regarded as the region of trans-regional exchange, thriving urban centers and legendary kingdoms or empires such the great ghana, songhai, takrur, malinke, mali, kanem-borno empires and the hausa states. various products have been traded across this region over several years. these products include grains, meat and leather among humid savannah products. gold, salt, cloth and horses were traded across the region and the sahara. such copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 9 trade is mostly seen to flourish between arab and the berbers traders. taghaza was famous for salt and had been under the control of the sahara nomads before it came under the influence of mali [pekka masonen, 1995]. 2. the trans-sahara trade herodotus [489-425 bce], the famous historian had narrated in some of his writings about the people of the nile valley and their links their relation with other peoples further to the west. according herodotus the link between the people of the nile with the mediterranean world existed centuries before the founding of the roman empire [c. hassoum, t. green]. other sources also confirm that the links between west africa and the mediterranean world has been a very old one, and are believed to have existed even before the advent of islam in the region which was around 6 th century ce. the use of camels by the tuareg as means of transportation around 300 bc was seen to have aided trade in the region. movement had been difficult and dangerous; however the use of camels not only made movement easy, but led to trade on large scale basis www.ppps.org/cms. it was seen to have established a link and fostered trans-regional trade with the lake chad basin, senegal river, the niger bend and the mediterranean region with the desert. the new trade came to attract arabs, berbers and persian merchants. some of the trade networks that came to be identified very early in the region include jewish berber merchants and unorthodox muslims, and after the conquest of north africa by the muslims in the 7th century, sunni muslims dominated what came to be known as the ‘trans-saharan trade’, which linked africa to the mediterranean world. the trans-sahara trade route is among 8 famous trade routes that have shaped the history of the world and they include; the silk road [most important], linking china with rome in first century bce for exchange in wool, silver and gold coming from europe. spice route, maritime routes that linked the east to the west for exchanges in pepper, cloves, cinnamon and nutmeg that were in high demand in europe. incense route is another of the eight and is located in the southern end of the arabian peninsula, frankincense and myrrh were exported to rome and greece and used to make perfumes. the amber road links the baltic region with europe where stones are used for decoration and for medicines; deposits of amber are found in the baltic sea and is therefore exported to europe. the tea route is a tea producing area that link china to india through tibet. the salt route ran from ostia across italy to the adriatic coast, salt was a precious commodity at the time, and then comes the trans-saharan trade route, and is followed by the tin route in the list of the eight trade routes. the tin was a bronze and iron age route that was a source of ingredients used to make metals [claire cock-starkey, 2016]. see map of the web of connections and routes in the trans-saharan trade. source: wikipedia. it is interesting to note that islam was spread across the sahel region as a result of commerce and not sword as in the case of north africa. trade brought all kinds of people to the region and not only merchants. there were pilgrims, adventurers and scholars like ibn batuta who visited mali in the 14th century and referred to the area as ‘bilad al sudan’ or ‘land of the blacks’ www.orias.berkeley.edu . it was against such background that the kingdoms and empires of the sahel region emerged. trade in the region with hausa speaking urban centers like kano developed due to old linkages with the fulani people and the tuareg population. the hausa and the kanuri regions were characterized by an intensive mixed agro-pastoral production system similar to that obtained in the songhai region. it helped produce and amounted to more than a reserve and was seen to have helped contribute to the attraction and resilience of the urban market centers at kano, katsina and zindar. the milk, leather and islamic literature of the tuareg were highly prized in these urban markets that developed. the hausa were known to appreciate clothing styles, leather works and the jewelry of the tuaregs. kano in those days was very famous for cotton and indigo, which was greatly valued in morocco. moroccan leather, usually exported to spain was sourced from kano; an important center for animal hides production [monica, 2013]. http://www.ppps.org/cms http://www.orias.berkeley.edu/ copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 10 3. reviving the ancient trade routes and the sahel economy the decline of the trading activities in the sahel region in recent years has been attributed to several factors. the mercantile policies of europe’s rising economic powers are among major factors. the trans-atlantic slave trade led to the collapse of the trans-saharan trade. the natural resources of the sahel are now extracted and shipped to europe unlike in the past when it was taken and sold in kano, timbuktu or gao and now these cities are left redundant and economically insignificant to the regions prosperity. the trans-sahara trade was a profitable web of connections that facilitated movement of goods between north africa, west african empires and city-states and the near east. experts believe that it is not impossible to re-establish these connections. in fact the re-establishment or revival of the trans-saharan trade is being compared to the present attempt by china to revive the old silk road in what came to be known as the ’one belt one road’ initiative, which many believe will be beneficial to the chinese [andrew, 2017]. the silk road is the ancient network of trade routes that linked east asia and southeast asia with east africa, west asia and southern europe. according to the african development bank, about 85% of morocco’s investments go to sub-saharan africa [the economist, 19.07.18]. and this shows that there is potential for economic growth, and possibly industrialization. however, what is required to make the new crescent economy a reality is that governments of sahel states and in this case nigeria must undertake a study that will lead to the establishment of manufacturing industries in the north; kano, katsina, jigawa e.t.c. textile and leather industries could be established in these cities and their products moved into the sahel markets. president buhari as the current chairman of ecowas must facilitate the construction of super crescent highway that links these sahel cities to one another, to facilitate movement of goods. the popular and famous cities of timbuktu, gao, kano, agadez, taghaza, daura, djenne, sijilmasa, cairo and borno will all be linked together. a route for the super highway can take off from kano to zindar and then to agadez, and will link up to gao and then timbuktu, from timbuktu it will be linked to sijilmasa in morocco. other cities like djenne will easily link up through timbuktu. another suggestion by experts is that kano should take inspiration from timbuktu and become a tourist center for being part of the wondrous sahel world, by preserving its history and presenting it to the global audience as part of that cherished sahel past and thus becoming a center for tourists worldwide. the traditional festival is among popular celebrations in kano that attract people from far and wide, including europeans and if well-organized could attract the attention of the world. perhaps the creation of the new emirates by the kano state government is justified and it may probably create a new modernized traditional state that will appeal to a global audience. another attraction is the dawakin tofa pottery, kurmi market, kofar mata dyeing pit, minjibir weaving place and some of the remnants of the city walls [augustina 2018]. 4. conclusion as this short article has shown, the trans-sahara trade was no doubt a phenomenon in the history of africa. not only did it create an economy for many city states at the time, it also established contact between peoples of various regions and cultures. the article has also shown what kind of economic relations existed between different states or cities and the importance of the various commodities each state possessed. at this point if one argues that the re-establishment of the linkages or connections between the different cities in modern times is not out place, one can be correct. if we take into consideration the investments of morocco in sub saharan africa, which is huge, and the proposals for the trans-sahara gas pipeline by west african states [michael, 24.03.17], including nigeria, the reality of the re-establishment these old connections becomes clear . what is needed to get trade moving is road infrastructure across the sahel to the sahara. and apart from the road infrastructure, industries across cities like kano that would produce goods for the sahel states that would stir economic intercourse between these states. the revival of the textile industries with particular focus on the production of what is consumed in the markets of the different sahel markets will easily create the magic. at this point there is need for a comprehensive study by merchants in businessmen in kano, kaduna, katsina, borno and daura of what is consumed in the markets of timbuktu, gao, sijilmasa, and cities and markets in the different sahel states. and if the newly created emirates in kano together with its government and people become creative enough, kano might find itself in the spotlight, and become a center of tourism for the world and influx of people as is recorded in places like timbuktu, istanbul and other places will happen in kano and could be a source of revenue generation and will impact on the economy of not only kano but nigeria as a whole. references augustina okpechi, kano, a city of antiques and culture, guardian, 14 september, 2016. andrew korybko, the sahelian-saharan silk road is one of china’s plans for africa, the sahelian, www.katehon.com claire cock-starkey, 8 trade routes that shaped world history, metal floss, 2016. www.metalfloss.com hassoum ceesay, toby green, trans-sahara trade, origins, organization and effects in the development of west africa., www.wasscehistorytextbook.com michael eboh, $12bn trans-sahara gas pipeline on track-nnpc, vanguard, 24 march, 2017. http://www.katehon.com/ http://www.metalfloss.com/ http://www.wasscehistorytextbook.com/ copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 11 monica mark, nigeria hopes kano’s ancient textile traditions can boost trade and tourism, the guardian, 25 july, 2013. pekka masonen, university of tampere, the third nordic conference on middle eastern studies: ethnic encounter and culture change, joensuu, finland, 19-22 june, 1995. robert muggah, the sahel engulfed by violence, climate change, food insecurity and extremists are largely to blame, world economic forum, 2019. www.weforum.org the economist, banking on ecowas: why morocco is cosying up to sub-saharan africa,19 july, 2018. trans-sahara trade, www.ppps.org/cms. travels of ibn batuta: the journey to mali 1350-1351, uc berkeley, www.orias.berkeley.edu copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. this is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). http://www.weforum.org/ http://www.ppps.org/cms http://www.orias.berkeley.edu/ american economic & social review; vol. 3, no. 1; 2018 issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 impact factor: 3.9 published by centre for research on islamic banking & finance and business, usa 23 household preferences and willingness to pay for waste management services in rural nigeria richardson kojo edeme department of economics, university of nigeria, nsukka email(s): richard.edeme@unn.edu.ng; kojodynamics@yahoo.com nelson c. nkalu (corresponding author) department of economics, university of nigeria, nsukka e-mail(s): nelson.nkalu@unn.edu.ng; nkaluconnection@gmail.com received: november 5, 2018 accepted: november 9, 2018 online published: november 16, 2018 abstract safe and clean environment is an essential requirement for maintaining life on earth and creating human friendly environment is one of the most important issues in the world today. the concern of this paper is to examine household preference and willingness to pay for waste management services. the population of the study is made up of the households in the nsukka urban where simple random sampling techniques was employed to select 25 households from each of the six town in nsukka urban, employing binary modelling using probit model to estimate the impact of both cultural and demographic factors and economic factors on household willingness to pay for waste management service. the result revealed that demographic factors such as age, household size and education have great influence on household willingness to demand for waste management in nsukka urban area. also, economic factors such, income level of the households, awareness of the household about the environment, impact of waste management service and cost of waste management service has positive significant impact on household willingness to pay for waste management services. keywords: household, waste management services, binary model, probit model 1. introduction waste is directly linked to human development, both technologically and socially. the composition of different wastes has varied over time and location, with industrial development and innovation being directly linked to waste materials. waste management agencies have placed an increasing focus on reducing waste so that there is less to cope with. attempts have been made by scholars, researchers, consultants and government to determine the actual amount of waste being generated in nigeria in general (agbola, 2001). in a survey carried out by (cassad, 1998) on waste generation in nigeria. the study shows that the volume of wastes generated by all the states increased over the period between 1994 and 1996. it was estimated that by the year 2010, nigeria will generate about 3.53 million tonnes of solid waste, based on a per capita solid waste generation of 20kg per year (agbola, 2001). nigerian urban areas have been said to be some of the dirtiest, the most unsanitized and the least aesthetically pleasing in the world (alabi, 2004). attempts have been made by researchers to determine the actual amount of waste being generated in nigeria (agbola, 2001). in a survey carried out by (cassad, 1998) on waste generation in nigeria, it was found that the volume of wastes generated by all the states increased between 1994 and 1996. it was estimated that by the year 2010, nigeria will generate about 3.53 million tonnes of solid waste, based on a per capita solid waste generation of 20kg per year (agbola, 2001). nigerian urban areas have been said to be some of the dirtiest, the most unsanitized and the least aesthetically pleasing in the world (alabi, 2004). about 75 percent of solid waste collected in most nigerian urban cities is disposed in open. this method which is rampant is not hygienic as it marginalizes the environment as a result of the negative externalities it generates (adinnu 1994). safe and clean environment is an essential requirement for maintaining life on earth and creating human friendly environment is one of the most important issues in the world today (khtak and amin 2013). to meet the needs of rapidly growing population, it is obvious that production has to be increased by at least the population growth rate mailto:richard.edeme@unn.edu.ng mailto:kojodynamics@yahoo.com mailto:nelson.nkalu@unn.edu.ng mailto:nkaluconnection@gmail.com www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 3, no. 1; 2018 24 which leads to waste production that is beyond the absorptive capacity of the environment due to the hygienic problems as a result of the negative externalities it generates (tarfasa, 2007, subha, ghani et al., 2014). the changing economic trends and rapid urbanization also complicate solid waste management in developing countries. consequently, solid waste is not only increasing in quantity but also changing in composition from less organic to more paper, packing wastes, plastics, glass, metal wastes among other types, a fact leading to the low collection rates (bartone& bernstein, 1993; yusuf, ojo, et al, 2007). agreeing with this assertion, (cassad, 1998), stated that the decomposition of wastes on open dumping grounds emit intolerable smells and attract potential diseases. wastes that are not well managed can affect the environment in terms of the contamination of the atmosphere, soil and water. this can cause severe problems for humans and animals population. it can also affect human health in particular by causing convulsion, dermatitis, irritation of nose/throat, anaemia, skin burns, chest pains, blood disorders, stomach aches, vomiting diarrhoea and lung cancer which may lead to death (alabi, 2004). the social effect where flood which has resulted in loss of lives and properties worth millions of naira. population growth, urbanization and greater exploitation of resources resulted in an increasing demand for environmental management. particularly in developing countries urban areas, the people are facing sever challenges due to lack of healthy urban environment (khtak & amin 2013). inadequate urban waste management is one of the major drivers to the degrading of environment quality in urban areas (unpddesa, 2005, khattak, khan et al., 2009, wilson and velis, 2014). this solid waste problem is due to high waste generation, inadequate waste collection, and poor disposal habits by the households/individuals, which is as a result of lack of appropriate planning, inadequate governance, resource constraint and ineffective management solid waste is a major source of concern in many rapidly growing cities in developing countries. according to unep (2004), solid waste generation has become an increasing environmental and public health problem everywhere in the world, particularly in developing countries. the fast expansion of urban agricultural and industrial activities stimulated by rapid population growth has produced vast amounts of solid and liquid wastes that pollute the environment and destroy resources. in the past, most attempts by cities to improve solid waste management focused on the different technical means of collection and disposal (altaf & deshazo 1996; medina 2002). collection and disposal of waste has always been the responsibility of government authorities in the past (harris, allison & smith, 2001), hence, waste management is a service for which state and local government is responsible (cointreaus-livine, 1994, alabi, 2004). the inability of the government to manage solid waste collection and disposal effectively arose perhaps from the misconception of this task as a public good. irrespective of the fact that government gave waste collection a priority in their development objectives, their ability to curtail the problems of waste collection deteriorates with time especially in the rural areas or emerging town like nsukka, due to rising capital costs for plant and equipment, increasing operation and maintenance costs because of the rapid population growth of emerging urban areas with decreasing waste management coverage levels, and with increase in level of waste generated, confronted by increasing public demand for improved services and infrastructure (salifu, 2001 and sule, 1981), the need arises for the involvement of the private sector and the civil society in the provision of municipal solids waste service. it should be noted, however, that it is only in the large urban centres of nigeria such as lagos, ibadan, warri, suleja amongst others that the activities of formal private sector are recorded (alabi, 2004). in majority of the cities such as osogbo, they are neither totally absent or being substituted with the informal refuse collectors such as cart pushers. this therefore gives rise to the need to evaluate the household willingness to pay for improved solid waste disposal services in the study area. this study examined the general features of the existing waste management, household willingness potential to pay for improved waste disposal. the objective of this study is to examine household’s preferences and willingness to pay for waste management services. specifically, the study is designed to examine the extent cultural demographic and economic factors impact on household’s preferences and willingness to pay for waste management services in nsukka urban. 2. literature review as argued by tchobanglous (1993), all wastes emating from human and animal activities that are normally solid and are discarded as useless or unwanted are broadly defined as solid waste. it includes municipal garbage, industrial and commercial wastes, sewerage slug, waste of agricultural and animal husbandry, demolition waste and mining residues. different individuals have defined solid waste differently. it encompasses household refuse, institutional wastes, street sweepings, commercial wastes, as well as construction and demolition debris. to cointreau (1982), solid waste is material for which the primary generator or user abandoning the material within the urban area requires no compensation after abandonment. solid waste management (swm) is defined as the control, generation, storage, collection, transfer and transport, processing and disposal of solid waste consistent with the best practices of public health, economics & financial, engineering, administrative, legal and environmental considerations (othman, 2002). solid waste management has three main components: collection and transportation; www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 3, no. 1; 2018 25 reuse or recycling; and treatment or disposal (sida, 2006). us epa recommends using integrated, hierarchical approach to waste management with four components: source reduction, recycling, combustion, and land filling, to address the increasing volume of municipal solid waste. it ranks source reduction including reuse as the most preferred method, followed by recycling and composting, and lastly, disposal in combustion facilities and landfills. enger and smith (2006) categorized solid waste in to four broader kinds as mining, agricultural, industrial, and municipal solid waste. materials no longer used but are disposed because they are broke, spoiled, or have no longer uses are regarded as solid waste. such waste can emanate households, commercial establishments, institutions, and some industries. considering the points through which waste emanated, waste can be divided into: domestic waste, commercial waste, industrial waste, institutional waste, street sweepings and constructions waste. according to cornwell (1998) solid waste can be classified as organic, inorganic, combustible, putrescible and non-putrescible factions. cointreau (1982), blight & mbande (1996), arlosoroff (1982) notes that developing countries wastes are 2-3 times greater in waste density at the same time 2-3 times greater in moisture content than that of industrialized nations. developing country wastes also involve large amount of organic waste (vegetable matter, etc.), large quantities of dust, dirt (street sweepings, etc), and smaller particle size on average than in industrialized nations. although there might be some potential opportunities which arise from their waste composition, these peculiarities from industrialized nations present additional problems (cointreau, 1982; zerbock, 2003). firstly, a higher solid waste density has many implications for the ‘traditional’ methods of collection and disposal. several empirical studies on waste management indicate that age, household size, sex, marital status, education and household are among factors affecting willingness to pay for effective waste management. niringiye & omor (2010) found that age of the respondents has a negative and significant effect on waste management in kampala city in uganda. according to yusuf, salimonu & ojo(2007) on willingness to pay to improved household solid waste management in oyo state, nigeria. the outcome of the work showed that the maximum individual is willing to pay for improved solid waste management is n1240. furthermore, it was discovered that other factors such as age, educational level, household size and households monthly expenditure and income affects willingness to pay for waste disposal. das & gogoi (2010) while analyzing the effect of in a municipal solid waste management of tinsukia municipality of assam in india, observed that cost of waste management is affected by family income positively. the result of the study shows that an increase in household income increases willingness to pay by as much as 13%. additionally, they found out that willingness and preference to pay for waste disposal also depend on the proportion waste the household generate per month. household with huge waste to dispose have 21% willingness to pay for such services. siriwardena & gunaratne (2007) and jamal (2002), pek et al., (2008) used the choice experiment and the multinomial logit regression to investigate solid waste management in malaysia. their findings were that the level of increase in waste disposal required better quality disposal options. they concluded that sanitary landfill is more preferred in solid waste disposal by the residents. the study of morrison et al. (2002) on willingness to pay for waste disposal and management showed that, the willingness to pay by the respondents was negative. the respondents believe that the government should take care of the environmental issues. the implicit price obtained revealed that the households were not interested in environment improvement because there is an alternative to dispose wastes. in his investigation of household preferences for solid waste management in malaysia, jamal (2002) that households derive positive utility from the provisions of compulsory recycling facilities for efficient waste disposal. birol et al., (2009) estimated the value of improved wastewater treatment, a case study of river ganga, in india by using the conditional logistic model. it was discovered that the coefficients were significant and in accordance to expectation. treated wastewater quantity and quality were significant factors in the choice of a wastewater treatment programme. these two attributes increase the probability that a wastewater treatment programme is selected. in other words, households value those wastewater treatment programmes that result in higher quality and quantity of wastewater treated. while considering the attributes of frequency of vat collection, covered vats, covered collection trucks and monthly increase in tax, sukanya et al., (2008) used the conditional logistic model and the random parameter model to estimate willingness made by the respondents to improvement in solid waste disposal. their findings were that the poor and the rich have different attribute to payment. whereas richer households were willing to pay more for higher wastewater treated to a quality, poorer households were rather willing to pay more for higher quantity of wastewater treated. 3. methodolgy the study adopted simple random sampling technique where 25 households were sampled from each of the six towns that make up nsukka urban, giving a total sample of one hundred and fifty (150) respondents. the study made use of a structured questionnaire to collect data from respondents. the questionnaire supplied information on the factors that influence household willingness and preference for waste management service by households. it also www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 3, no. 1; 2018 26 elicited information concerning the cultural and demographic and economic factors influencing households’ preferences and willingness to pay for waste management services. the descriptive statistics technique is adopted to show the characteristics of households’ preferences and willingness to pay for waste management services. in furtherance, the probit regression analysis is employed to empirically estimate the impact of cultural and demographic and economic factors influencing household preferences and willingness to pay for waste management services. 3.1 model the probit regression model is used to estimate the impact of cultural and demographic and economic factors influencing household preferences and willingness to pay for waste management services in nsukka urban.. according to wooldridge (2016), the linear probability model is suitable to model a dependent variable that takes values which are either 0 or 1. here, the probability of observing a 0 or 1 in any one case is treated as depending on one or more explanatory variables. hence, for a binary outcome and its associated vector of explanatory variables , it is true that i.e., the probability of success. this means that the probability that given is the same as the expected value of given . this yields the probability equation: this indicates that the probability of success i.e., is a linear function of variables. this equation is a typical instance of a linear probability model (lpm) because the response probability is linear in the parameters . in this model measures the change in the probability of success when changes, holding other factors constant; expressed mathematically as of importance to note is that the i.e., the vector of parameters of the linear probability model can be estimated with the ordinary least square method. in other words, this model is simple not just to estimate but to interpret, but it has some drawbacks (wooldridge, 2016). the two most crucial demerits are: first, the fitted probabilities can be less than zero or greater than one i.e., that it can lie outside the 0-1 range. second, the partial effect of any explanatory variable is constant. put differently, it assumes that increases linearly with variables. this assumption seem unrealistic because in reality, one would expect a nonlinear relationship between and . in other words, we need a more sophisticated binary response model i.e., a logistic regression model. in the lpm, the probability of success is given as i.e., as in gujarati & porter (2009), but for logistic representation, the probability of success is given as: if equation 3 can be written as; with the lowest common multiple = , the denominator of equation 5 can be deduced as: if the denominator of equation (5) is replaced with (6) and in respect to cross multiplication rule, the solves down to: www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 3, no. 1; 2018 27 equation 7 is referred to as the logistic distribution function. from equation (7), it is easy to prove that as ranges from negative to positive infinity, ranges between 0 and 1, and is nonlinearly related to (i.e., . this satisfies the two conditions considered earlier, but an estimation problem has been created because is nonlinear both in and as can be seen from equation 3. this implies that the ordinary least square method cannot be used to estimate the parameters. if the probability of success (i.e., the probability that the outcome of interest happens) is as in equation (7), then the probability of failure is = let lcm be , so that equation 8 becomes: the odds ratio using equation 7 and 9 can therefore be written as: equation (10) denotes the odds ratio in favour of success i.e., the ratio of the probability that an event of interest happens to the probability that it does not happen. taking the natural log of equation 10 gives the following logit regression model accounting for the error term produces the following stochastic model pohlman & leitner (2003) compare the result of ols with that of logit for a binary dependent variable and concluded that probability model like logit and probit yield a better result than ols. secondly, almost all the review empirical studies on household willingness to pay for waste management employed probability modelling like probit to estimate the relationship. as such this research will follow the part of previous researchers like das and gogoi (2010); siriwardena&gunaratne(2007); jamal (2002), and pek et al.,(2008) to estimate the household preference and willingness to pay for waste management service. the observed binary (1, 0) for whether or not household has demanded for waste management service is expressed in the following probit regression model: y= bxij + eij www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 3, no. 1; 2018 28 where y= demand for waste management services (1=yes; 0=no), xij =vector of explanatory variables, bij= vector of parameter estimates model 1: impact of cultural and demographic factors on preference and willingness to pay for waste management services y= f(x1, x2, x3, x4, x5) (13) y= b0 + b1x1 + b2x2+ b3x3 +b4x4 + b5x5 +u (14) y= demand for waste management services (1=yes; 0=no), x1= age (in years), x2= gender (1=female; 0=male), x3= marital status (1=married; 0=unmarried), x4= education (number of years in school for the head of the family), x5= family size (in person), b1-5 = coefficient of explanatory variables, u= error term. model 2: impact of economic factors on preference and willingness to pay for waste management services y= f(x1, x2, x3) (15) y= b0 + b1x1 + b2x2+ b3x3 +u (16) y= demand for waste management services (1=yes; 0=no), x1= cost of waste management service (1=affordable; 0=not affordable), x2= household monthly income (n), x3= house ownership (1= owner of house; 0=non-owner of house), x4= awareness about environmental implication of waste management service (1=yes; 0=no), b1-4= coefficient of explanatory variables, u= error term. 4. results and discussion table1: socioeconomic and demographic distribution of respondents frequency percentage demand for waste management services yes 123 82.0% no 27 18.0% total 150 100.0% age (in years) 20-29 years 12 8.0% 30-39years 28 18.7% 40-49years 38 25.3% 50-59years 43 28.7% above 60 years 29 19.3% total 150 100.0% gender female 102 64.0% male 48 32.0% total 150 100.0% occupational status employed 132 88.0% unemployed 18 12.0% total 150 100.0% family size 1-3persons 33 22.0% 4-6persons 88 58.7% above 6 persons 29 19.3% total 150 100.0% source: author’s computation from field survey www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 3, no. 1; 2018 29 table 2: economic factors influencing household willingness to pay for waste management services frequency percentage cost of waste management services affordable 140 93.3% not affordable 10 6.7% total 150 100.0% household monthly income none 0 0 below n100, 000 105 70.0% n100, 000 – n200, 000 34 22.7% above n200, 000 11 7.3% total 150 100.0% ownership status owner 95 63.3% rented 55 36.7% total 150 100.0% awareness about environmental information yes 130 86.7% no 20 13.3% total 150 100.0% source: authors computation from field survey data in table 1, it was revealed that 82% of the respondents are willing to pay for waste management services, 18% did not prefer and neither willing to pay for waste management services in nsukka urban. based on age distribution, 12(8%) of the respondents are between 20-29years; 28(18.7%) are between 30-39 years; 38(25.3%) are between 4049 years; 43(28.7%) are between 50-59 years and 29(19.3%) are above 60 years. based on gender distribution, 102(68%) of the respondents, which constituted the majority are female while the remaining 48(32%) are male. based on occupational status, 132(88%) of the respondents, which formed the majority are employed while the remaining 18(12%) are unemployed. based on family size, 33(22%) of the respondents have a household size between 1-3persons; 88(58.7%) have between 4-6persons and 29(19.3%) have above 6 person in their family. on the economic factors affecting household preference and willingness to pay for waste management services, it was revealed that 140(93.3%), which is the majority, reported that the cost of waste management services is affordable while the remaining 10(6.7%) stated that it is unaffordable. based on monthly income distribution, 105(70%) of the respondents earn below n100, 000; 34(22.7%) earn between n100, 000n200, 000 and 11(7.3%) earn above n200, 000. based on ownership status, 95(63.3%) of the respondents are the owner of the house while the remaining 55(36.7%) are leaving in rented apartment table 3: probit regression result on the impact of cultural and demographic factors on household willingness to pay for waste management services variable coefficient std. error z-statistic prob. remark c -4.0796 1.2345 -3.3041 0.0010 significant age -0.0719 0.0210 -3.4197 0.0006 significant gender 0.5697 0.3767 1.5149 0.1298 nonsignificant marital -0.2201 0.6214 -0.3542 0.7232 nonsignificant education 0.1515 0.0658 10.7833 0.0000 significant size 0.6149 0.1193 5.1411 0.0000 significant www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 3, no. 1; 2018 30 mcfadden r-squared 0.5881 mean dependent var 0.8200 lr statistic 83.1726 avg. log likelihood -0.1942 prob(lr statistic) 0.0000 source: authors computation from field survey data the result in table 3 shows that age, education and family size are the significant cultural and demographic factors that affects the demand for waste management while marital status and gender does not have strong influence in determining household willingness and preference for waste management service. also, as family size becomes larger, the probability of such family to demand for waste management services will increase because the family will tend to generate more waste over time. in furtherance, being educated increases the probability of demanding for waste management services as they can afford the inherent cost and are aware of the health implication of poor waste management. being married increases the likelihood of demanding for waste management services since more waste will be generated over time and similarly female head of the family tends to increase the probability demanding for waste management service than the family with male head since the male head is not involved in the waste disposal. the findings its an indication that demographic factors combine plays significant role in household waste management service preference and willingness to pay. table 4: probit regression result on the impact of economic factors on household willingness to pay for waste management variable coefficient std. error z-statistic prob. remarks c -3.3799 0.8690 -3.8894 0.0001 significant cost 2.7935 0.6188 4.5167 0.0000 significant income 1.27e-05 4.59e-06 2.7718 0.0056 significant ownership 0.0154 0.2983 0.0514 0.9590 not-significant awareness 1.0424 0.3855 2.7048 0.0068 significant mcfadden r-squared 0.6214 mean dependent var 0.8200 lr statistic 45.4458 avg. log likelihood -0.3197 prob(lr statistic) 0.0000 source: authors computation from field survey data the results in table 4 depicts that cost of waste management in terms of affordability, household average monthly income and awareness of the environmental factor of waste management are the significant economic determinants of demand for waste management services while ownership of the property, whether the household own the house they live or not does not play any significant role in household preference and willingness to pay for waste management services. cost of waste management, household income, environmental awareness and ownership positively impacts on demand for waste management. for example, if people can afford the cost of waste management services, the probability of them demanding for such services will increase. also, as individual’s income rises, chances are that there will be an increase in the demand for waste management services. being aware of the environmental consequences of improper waste management or being aware of waste management service will increases the likelihood of demanding for waste management services and owners of house tends to increase the willingness of the household preference and willingness to pay for waste management services. 5. conclusion this study has made considerable effort to examine household willingness and preferences to pay for waste management services. from the analysis, it is evident that household head age, family size and level of education of the household head plays significant role in their preference and willingness to pay for waste management services. beside, cost of waste management service in terms of affordability, household income and awareness influences household preference and willingness to pay for waste management services. arising from these findings, government should subsidies the price of waste management service to encourage more households to demand for waste management services. www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 3, no. 1; 2018 31 references boniface, o w (2016). municipal solid waste characterization in nsukka urban in south east nigeria, transylvanian special issue review, xxiv, (7) adinnu, i. f (1994). landfill and urban residential rental values: a case study of achapo landfill facility in ojolga, lagos state, unpublished murp dissertation. centre for urban and regional planning, university of ibadan. agbola, t. 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(2003). economics of solid waste management: a survey of existing literature, kolkata, india: indian statistical institute, economic research unit chuen-khee, p & othman, j (2010). household demand for solid waste disposal options in malaysia, world academy of science, engineering & technology, 66, 1153–1158 fantu, s. (2007). household heads’ willingness to pay for improved solid waste management: the case of common building residences in addis ababa, ma thesis, department of economics, addis ababa, ethiopia copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. this is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) american economic & social review; vol. 4, no. 1; 2018 issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 impact factor: 3.9 published by centre for research on islamic banking & finance and business, usa 8 nigerian elite and the culture of primitive accumulation stanley edebiri egharevba phd fellow doctoral student department of political science university of benin benin city nigeria e-mail: stainlessfbj@yahoo.com tel: +234(0)7038913722 friday osaru ovenseri-ogbomo ph.d (corresponding author) senior lecturer economics, banking & finance department benson idahosa university benin city nigeria e-mail: fovenseri-ogbomo@biu.edu.ng tel: +2348075316610 received: november 21, 2018 accepted: november 27, 2018 online published: december 1, 2018 abstract nigeria is endowed with vast human and material resources to engender development but it still continues to luxuriate within the confines of a top speed in reverse to oblivion. as its relics, neocolonialism has given birth to industrialization, urbanization and militarization of the political process which generally has created “sudden billionaires” on one end of the ladder (elected or appointed public officials) and extremely poor masses (unemployed graduates and depressed masses) at the other end of the ladder. this paper basically exposes the developmental retrogressive outlooks of the masses due to primitive capitalist accumulation by the few elites who have piloted the affairs of the nation. keywords: elite, primitive capitalist, rent-entrepreneur, multilateral imperialism. 1. introduction the nigerian state is endowed with enormous human and material resource capabilities, sitting on a vast land area of 923,773km 2 with vast solid minerals reserve, wonderful vegetations and fertile soil for growing different agricultural produce. it has over 160 million people of diverse cultural backgrounds. despite these paraphernalia of development, the basic visible feature or condition of the nigerian state is an unprecedented poverty, decayed and decaying infrastructure, massive unemployment and underemployment which are worsened by social vices of varying magnitudes due to political self-aggrandizement. prior to the invasion by african colonizers which led to the amalgamation of the southern and northern protectorates of nigeria in 1914, the separate hausa, yoruba and igbo enclaves were hitherto known for their respective values, norms, etc. which were basically the beauty of society. there was close affinity with virtues that promoted good life as the leadership was exemplary and valued hard work was greatly encouraged. the displacement of the nigerian prestigious culture was replaced by the twin devices of subjugation and exploitation of the colonized characterized by oppressive connotation of slave trade (osah, osundina, ayim, nwokocha & chioma 2014). mailto:stainlessfbj@yahoo.com mailto:fovenseri-ogbomo@biu.edu.ng www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 4, no. 1; 2018 9 in 1960, the concatenated northern and southern protectorate of nigeria gained political independence and became a republic in 1963 with high hopes that came with freedom from subjugation and exploitation. the hopes were a far cry from reality as the state became an avenue to amass wealth. chuke (2003) puts it that, the ranks of the foreign bourgeoisie who were expanded through multilateral imperialism nurtured the domestic comprador exploiters in nigeria through the educational system, religious indoctrination, among others. there is another sense in which politics under develops nigeria. this is the use of political power for the accumulation of wealth…the wealthiest people in nigeria are generally people who have acquired wealth through state power: by political corruption, by access to state contracts, agency rates or concessions such as import licenses – which does not usually involve them in direct productive activity…. (ake, 1996: 29) rather than bringing about human and material development, the state became an instrument of transfer of the exploitative tendencies of the colonial masters to the “indigenous colonizers”. soon enough, the envisaged development became a mirage as the political structures and operations were turned into a fast moving vehicle for primitive capital accumulation through the assiduous cultivation of a mutually beneficial alliance between themselves (imperial powers) and the domestic bureaucratic bourgeoisie for the highly lucrative joint venture. it became a tool for the enemies who sought the soul of the masses to deepen their impoverishment mechanisms by enriching their personal estates, with the commonwealth. in further buttressing this view, the postulation of karl marx (1818-1883) on the theory of modern capitalist society that provided the paths to economic growth and societal development comes to mind. the centrality of the state as a prime factor in the nigerian political economy cannot be overemphasized as the motion or direction of the processes of production, distribution and value allocation rests on its shoulders. the desire to engineer a collective mass action to engender development seems utopian as this process is continually scuttled by the state which according to marx, is “… but a committee for managing the affairs of the whole bourgeoisie…, the form in which the individuals of a ruling class assert their common interest” (engels, 1919). the state is a tool in the hands of the dominant class as epitomized in the handling of the production process. it was once stated by john campbell – (a former american ambassador to nigeria between 1998 -2000) that those who hold power in trust for the people do not wish for a change, what they want is to constantly lay siege on power and impoverish the people. they use the centrality of the state to situate the directions of politics and constantly oppress the masses (omoyibo, 2014). 2. understanding primitive accumulation the concise oxford dictionary of politics portrays primitive accumulation as the process which was used by marx to describe the gathering together of commodities, gold and silver, and finally money by which nascent capitalism created the material base (through the systematic exploitation of labour, expropriation of resources, and colonial plundering) that facilitated its dominance in the economic and political spheres (mclean & mcmillan, 2003) similarly, primitive accumulation is seen as the obsessive-compulsive acquisition of money and other material possessions far beyond what is needed for dignified human existence (anele, 2015). it is obsessive in the sense that they cannot stop the criminal act to keep acquiring what is deemed to be in the physical possession of someone who does not require a psychiatric attention. in a related development, ake (1978) tagged the conditioning process by which the few privileged in the society seize the means of production and reduce the vast majority of the people to selling their labour power as primitive accumulation. 3. capitalist accumulation: a marxist theorization it was marx’s perception that the production of surplus is “the absolute law of the capitalist model”, that most of the surplus value is reconverted into capital which on the one side has the capitalist and on the other side – the wage labourers (ogbeide, 2017). he further opined that in all societies, the state is the coercive instrument of the property owning classes in that the state acts in the interest of the dominant class who controls the state machinery through their ownership of the means of production and distribution. the nigerian political and socio-economic practice or tradition today is a reflection or typical of the imperial capitalist bourgeoisie before independence. in the view of chuke (2003), there are basically three strata which reflect this practice. they are: www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 4, no. 1; 2018 10 i. the first stratum which consist of the petty-bourgeois political parties from the 1960 to the present. this is in addition to their ministers, commissioners, chairmen and heads of industries, permanent secretaries and other bureaucratic elite in federal and state public services and traditional rulers (obas, obis and emirs) ii. the second stratum encompasses the unproductive and parasitic commercial, financial, industrial and contracting firms which are archetypal of the colonial era engrossed in the aggressive desire for wealth generation. iii. the third stratum consists of officers of the armed forces and police who serve as agents of protective covers for the petty-bourgeoisie. this stratum’s (officers’) involvement in politics further aggravated the material miseries of the populace as they became agents of wanton capitalist accumulation. there is no gainsaying the fact that the corruption that has encapsulated the criminalization of the nigerian state is made obvious with certain indices which are typified in the disposition of the leaders which reflect socio-economic, cultural and economic directions in the body polity. for example, nigeria is built to be a mono-cultural economy with a high degree of disproportionality in the sharing or distribution of the common patrimony where the centrality of the state speaks volume and institutional weakness at the apogee occasioned by political exploitation and marginalization. egharevba (2010) prudently asserted that in the 1970s, the malaysian government visited nigeria (edo state) to learn the rudiments of palm oil and kernel production; and purchased some seedlings. today, malaysia is the world’s second largest producer of palm produce after indonesia which nigerian elite neglected in their quest for petro-dollar. the majority of nigerian elite do nothing for living other than government patronage and this has engendered value system distortion. the foregoing has been succinctly put in perspective by charles soludo (cited in nyewusira, and nweke, 2014 : 645 655) thus: “in nigeria, the excessive dependence on oil has compounded by the concentration of the commanding heights of the economy in the hands of government. government then became the fastest and cheapest means of making quick money, a rentier state emerged, intensifying the politics of ‘sharing’ rather than ‘production’. this created a horde of ‘rent-entrepreneur’, that is ‘big men’ without any productive source of livelihood except proximity to state power”. in the view of ake (1996), “therefore politics is warfare and governance spoils of war…” this is further exacerbated by the cultural value of primitive accumulation of wealth in nigeria where there is celebration of wealth as a precursor to the factors working against the war against corruption 4. criminalization of the nigerian state: elite-underdevelopment nexus nigeria is a nation endued with all the paraphernalia of development but the basic visible feature or condition of the nigerian state is an unprecedented poverty, decayed and decaying infrastructure, massive unemployment and underemployment which are worsened by social vices of varying magnitudes due to political self aggrandizement. it has been widely articulated that nigeria is a top player on the global or international pitch of political robbery where she can score a hundred goal in a ninety minute game. it is even said that if there is world cup for political robbery (corruption), the nigerian nation would always play at the finals. primitive accumulation is a threat to democracy because it constitutes a deprivation as well as denial for the citizens who had expected democracy to wipe away their tears after many agonizing years under military dictatorship (saliu, 2011). kew (2006) opines that the nigerian government remains distant from serving the interest of its people. ayittey (2006) asserts that the african state has evolved into a predatory monster or a gangster state that uses a convoluted system of regulations and controls to pillage and rob the productive class – the peasantry. it is common knowledge that heads of state, ministers and highly placed african government officials raid the african treasury, misuse their positions in government to extort commissions on foreign loan contracts, skim foreign aid, inflate contracts to cronies for kickbacks and deposit the loot in overseas banks. the very people who are supposed to defend and protect the peasants’ interests are themselves engaged in institutionalized looting”. it is indeed a paradox that those saddled with the common patrimony of the nigerian state use it for personal gains thereby defying the essence of the social contract (ayittey, 2006). when the question of elite-underdevelopment nexus is raised, there is a tendency to scapegoat the followers as being part of the problem. perhaps, this is due to the notion that the leaders in nigeria are not from mars because they www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 4, no. 1; 2018 11 come from our families, villages, etc. and are elected or selected from among the people. it has become a cliché that every country has the government it deserves. further credence is given to this fact on the ground that in the electoral process, followers do not avail the right candidates the opportunity to win election to correct the incidences of bad governance. to place culpability where it is required, it is necessary to state that the citizens are conditioned to act in manners that further perpetrate the abysmal dispositions of the elites. the poor people who take to social vices due to frustration are daily railroaded to prison while “political robbers” who are rich and powerful are allowed to breathe the air of freedom. they are conferred with immunity or granted perpetual injunction restraining anti-graft agencies from investigating and prosecuting them. the african state is basically the product of colonial construction owing to the abundance of natural resources. this is responsible for the expansionist drive and this was bequeathed to the african privileged few (elites) who use the state structure as a tool for all manner of corrupt dispositions with reckless abandon. all the arms of government have become uninterrupted drain channels of public funds earmarked for developmental projects and this is further made worse by constitutional provision of immunity clause which provides a viable platform that shields criminals in ‘governments uniforms’ and their associates. former civilian governors are on the list of top profile nigerians indicted for money laundering, fraud and various other corrupt practices. ekpebu (1996) aptly puts it that “in office, the politicians turned the government treasury into a large scale private gold mine. to remain in office, they used armed thugs to ensure better representation for their political parties and rigged elections in broad day light”. the few that are handling the apparatuses of the state machinery has massively transferred the common patrimony of the people to their private estates without recourse to the wellbeing of the general masses who are supposed to be the raison d’être for their being selected, elected or appointed. development is grossly impeded as hunger becomes the closest companion to the masses. this is aptly captured by ake (1993) who emphasized that the colonial state which is the relics of colonial subjugation which by virtue of its violent and arbitrary disposition suppressed and exploited the colonial territory, could neither appreciate nor incorporate the captives’ cultures, policy and experience into the emergent state system. in nigeria, the incapacitation in introducing or reacting quickly in a positive way to the plight of the masses is hinged on the long term and short term pretentious use of public office where the interest of the public officers are pursued with incalculable zeal while creating the impression that they are busy about issues of urgent national importance (omoyibo, 2014). to assure them of maximal perpetration, they build patron-client networks which gives credence to their continuous perpetuation. in corroboration, garba 1995 (cited in omoyibo, 2014 : 27) opined, “in a country like nigeria where the prizes are so few, and the stakes so high, the fight for booty or ‘national cake’ is fierce and often vicious. it has at times led to a debilitating corruption in the arena of public policy making and implementation. ‘who gains, who loses in these federal, state and local policy arenas is rarely an accident more often than not, the distributional consequences of public policies are the intended result of the private interests which have been instrumental in their design, passage, and implementation’. since 1960 in nigeria, elections have become wars and the military abandoned their constitutional responsibility of defending the territorial integrity of a nation by developing a strong notch for politics. at the announcement of a military take-over of power, they suspend the functionality of the constitution. the legal mechanism which proposes punishment for ills of society is put in abeyance. this affords them of ‘back door legality’ to deflate the nation’s treasury as corruption is institutionalized. the arrival of military juntas in the nigerian polity saw the legitimization of the official bleeding of the treasury blood of the system. the 1975 great purge of the civil service by the murtala mohammed / olusegun obansanjo regime which without recourse to lay down procedures as it relates to years of service, etc. retired civil servants. in the perspective of agbo (2010), in nigeria, we inhale and exhale corrupt air, feed on corrupt foods and we are frequently surrounded by elements of corruption. since the first military takeover on 15th january, 1966, the frequently adduced excuse for incursion in politics is ‘neophytically’ anchored on the pretense of ‘correcting the massive corruption of the previous’ but the reality proves otherwise as the actions of the military betray its declared intentions. in actual sense, the lands and seeds for and of corruption are cultivated and propagated the most by the military who openly pluck the fruits of good life whether they are mature or not (osah, et al, 2014). the eight years reigns of gen. ibrahim b. babangida and gen. sani abacha were characterized by massive stocking of the nation’s common patrimony abroad. for instance, gen. babangida’s regime was known for open collection of ‘kick-backs and ten-percent’ from all quoted contracts. it is also on record that the halliburton bribe which indicted www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 4, no. 1; 2018 12 the military regimes of general sani abacha, general abdulsalami abubakar and the civilian administration of olusegun obasanjo are just a few of the heinous cases in high places (osah, et al, 2014). since the discovery and beginning of oil exploration in oloibiri in 1958, nigeria has made over $500 billion from crude oil sales. with reference to the parlous nature of the country, it is obvious that a very large chunk of the said money has been mismanaged by military dictators and selfish politicians (members of the ruling elite entrusted with the power to manage our resources) who have milked the nation dry (anele, 2015). table 1: selected fraud cases involving top government officials in nigeria 2006-2015 s/n suspects year of prosecution allegation 1. peter odili, former rivers state governor, 2006 till date accused of laundering and diverting over n 100 billion 2. ayo fayose, ekiti state governor 2006 till date accused of stealing n 400 million 3. saminu turaki, ex governor of jigawa state 2007 till date accused of money laundering, misappropriation of n 36 billion 4. muhammed goje, ex governor of gombe 2011 till date accused of conspiracy and money laundering involving n 25 billion 5. chimaroke nnamani, former enugu state governor 2011 till date accused of money laundering of about n 4.5 billion 6. gbenga daniel, ex-ogun state governor 2011 till date accused of money laundering to the tune of n 211.3 million 7. murtala nyako, ex-adamawa state governor 2014 till date accused of money laundering of about n 15 billion 8. adebayo alao-akala, ex-oyo state governor 2011 till date accused of mismanagement of funds up to n 11.5 billion 9. orji uzor-kalu, ex abia state governor 2007 till date accused of corruption, money laundering to the tune of n 5 billion 10. joshua dariye, former plateau state governor 2007 till date accused of mismanaging n 1.2 billion 11. colonel sambo dasuki (rtd) former national security adviser 2015 till date accused of money laundering and breach of public trust to the tune of $2.1 billion source: uche-okobi 2015:17; ajayi, 2015 5. conclusion and recommendation africa and indeed nigeria had a very close tie with virtues that enhanced good life before the coming of the colonial masters. but this was bastardized by the colonial master’s desire for cheap source of raw materials, labour, lucrative market and vast expanse of land aptly available for expropriation which replaced the exemplary and valued hard work virtues. handing over political power to indigenous leaders who had copied this pattern of leadership further exacerbated the ills as the leadership became the twin devices of subjugation and exploitation, characterized by aggressive looting of the common patrimony of the masses with a reckless abandonment which manifested in the dehumanization of the people. without recourse to the position of the law of the land, the common patrimony or commonwealth of the people is siphoned by the nigeria ruling class through the process of primitive capital accumulation. www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 4, no. 1; 2018 13 winning the war on corruption would require strict adherence to obasanjo’s slogan of ‘no sacred cows’ where this will not be mere words as the big wigs (elite) who are involved in primitive capital accumulation are adequately sanctioned (aluko, 2009). for nigeria to experience development which is the yearning of the masses, corruption should not be condoned under any guise. government must not be seen to pay lip service to the incidence of corruption. government must be endowed enough to exercise a viable political will power to appropriately handle corrupt officials. the former president of united states of america (barack obama) once opined that the problem of africa (and indeed nigeria) is weak institution. nigeria will need to build viably strong institutions where rules are aptly and stridently followed. also, the anti-graft agencies must be strengthened adequately in order to function maximally. the judiciary must be strengthened and closely monitored. it is indeed a ridicule of maximal propensity for an upright judge to sentence john yakubu yusuf (an assistant director in the federal service) who was accused together with six others of stealing n32.8 billion from the police pension fund to two years imprisonment with an option of a fine of n750,000.00 which he gave without looking back. the judiciary must be watched because until the sanction for wrong doing outweighs its benefits, the temptation for aggrandizement of public fund becomes too pleasant to overcome. party affiliations must be expunged when dealing with corrupt cases. the character of favoritism and nepotism on the part of government must be seriously checked to avoid the recruitment of mediocre. sensitive positions should not be used as a political compensation mechanism. square pegs should used in square holes. also, government should not be seen as an instrument of primitive accumulation. rather the principle of servant leadership must be imbibed and value reorientation must be encouraged. citizens’ mental and value re-orientation is sacrosanct. assist in building our depreciated value system where it has become a crime to be in a political position without misappropriating public funds. we should not celebrate our family members who got into politics to siphon money for people oriented projects thereby impoverishing the populace. references agbo, a. (2010). tell magazine of november, 8 ajayi, o. (2015, december 3). $2.1 bn arms deal: i didn’t receive a dime from dasuki, says ex-gov. bafarawa. vanguard. retrieved from http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/12/03/2-1-bn-arms-deal-i-didnt-receive-adime-from-dasuki-says-ex-gov-bafarawa/ ake, c. (1978). revolutionary pressures in africa. london: zed press ltd. (1996). social science as imperialism: the theory of political development, university press ibadan, nigeria. aluko, y. a. (2009): corruption in nigeria: concept and demission in anti-corruption reforms in nigeria since 1999: issues, challenges and the way forward ifra special resources issues, vol. 3. anele, d. (2015). the absurdity of primitive accumulation. retrieved on august 22 nd , 2017, available at http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/07/the-absurdity-of-primitive-accumulation/ ayittey, b.n.g. (2006) nigeria’s struggle with corruption (a testimony before the committee on international relation’s subcommittee on africa, global human rights and international operations house committee on africa, u.s. house of representative) washington, d. c, thursday, may 18 campbell, j. (2010). nigeria: dancing on the brink. ibadan: bookcraft chuke, p. i. (2003). political economy: fundamental notes. benin: wilprint publications egharevba, e. s. (2010). challenges to destiny, offa, kwara state: supreme print solutions engels, f. (1919), basic writings on politics and philosophy. new york: doubleday (anchor books), 17, pg. 27 garba, j. (1995). fractured history: elite shifts and policy changes in nigeria; princeton: sungai books; pg. 294 kew, d. (2006) nigeria in sarja (ed.) countries at the crossroads (new york: freedom house) mclean, i. and mcmillan, a. (2003). the concise oxford dictionary of politics, second edition. oxford: oxford university press. nyewusira, v. and nweke, k. (2014). nigeria and the attainment of sustainable development in the 21 st century, mediterranean journal of social sciences mcser publishing, rome-italy vol. 5, no 4 omoyibo, k. u. (2014). “marxism and the nigerian state”, european scientific journal may edition vol. 8, no.11, pg. 20 – 33 tp://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/07/the-ab www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 4, no. 1; 2018 14 osah, g., osundina, o., ayim, o., nwokocha, c. and chioma, p. (2014). “the political economy of corruption and leadership in nigeria”, arabian journal of business and management review. vol. 3, no.8. saliu, h. a. (2011) “challenges of democracy in nigeria and the pathways” in nigerian forum, nigerian institute of international affairs. july – august, 2011 pg. 227-238 soludo, c. (2005). “the political economy of sustainable democracy in nigeria”. the 5th nigeria democracy day lecture delivered on may 29th, in abuja. uche-okobi, j. (2015, april 17). the burden of corruption in tell corruption governors waiting for buhari, 17, 14-22. copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. this is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr american economic & social review; vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 published by centre for research on islamic banking & finance and business, usa 12 the “deciles implied inequality indices” for expressing income distribution and measuring public financial burden of equalization policies bijan bidabad professor economics and chief islamic banking advisor bank melli iran, tehran, iran email: bijan@bidabad.com abstract different ways have been proposed to measure income inequality; there is no best way to calculate the inequality index that expresses income distribution as it is. popular inequality indices provide information about some points on the distribution function and analyze the inequality of income without reference to the amount of the budget needed to improve the income distribution. in this paper, we propose a set of “deciles implied inequality indices”. by using this index, we can show how much transfer payment is needed as a redistribution policy to achieve a desired income distribution consistent with the perceived economic goals of the society. that is, we try to find a fiscalcompensation-based index for reducing inequality. by using “deciles implied inequality indices”, we may measure how much income (tax and subsidy) may be redistributed to reach the targeted income distribution policy. keywords: income distribution, inequality index, lorenz curve, public finance, equalization policy. keywords: jel: c63 1. introduction for better distribution of income and welfare, the government might redistribute income through tax, subsidy, or transfer payments to achieve equity and promote the utility of every member of the society. popular inequality indices provide comparative information about the income or wealth distribution without responding to the question of what the amount of the money needed to improve the distribution. in this paper, we define a series of income inequality indices; namely, the “deciles implied inequality indices” to show how much transfer payments or redistribution policies are needed to achieve a desired distribution of income in accordance of the economic equity goal of the policy-maker. there are different measures of income inequality (atkinson (1970); cowell (1977); sen (1973)). popular measures are such as the gini index; the decile ratio; the proportions of total income earned by the bottom 50%, 60%, and 70% of the households; the robin hood index; the atkinson index; and theil's entropy measure. the lorenz curve may illustrate the degree of income inequality. the income inequality shown by a lorenz curve can be measured and expressed by the gini index. the gini index is the ratio of the area between the lorenz curve and the angle bisector 45° line, to the total area below the 45° line. this index expresses the distribution inequality just by one figure. gini index is calculated by a ratio that its numerator is the area between the lorenz curve and the diagonal line, and the denominator is the area under the uniform distribution line. this ratio is between 0 and 1. kakwani (1980) by some recalculation of the gini index measures the length of the lorenz curve as an inequality index. the robin hood index is equivalent to the maximum vertical distance between the lorenz curve and the line of equal incomes. the atkinson (1970) index is one of the few inequality measures that explicitly incorporate normative judgments about social welfare. it is derived by calculating the so-called equity-sensitive average income, which is defined as that level of per capita income, which wether enjoyed by everybody would make total welfare precisely equal to the overall well-being generated by the actual income distribution. theil (1967) entropy measure derives from the notion of entropy in information theory. copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 13 there is no single "best" measure of income inequality. some measures such as the atkinson index are more bottom-sensitive than others are; i.e., more strongly correlated with the extent of poverty. the measures perform differently under various types of income transfers. for instance, the gini index is much less sensitive to income transfers between households, if they lie near the middle of the income distribution compared to the tails. the robin hood index is insensitive concerning income transfers between households on the same side of the mean income, and so on. while there are alternative methods, there is no best way to calculate the inequality index, mainly concentrating on fiscal view. that is, they generally analyze the distribution without inferring about the amount of fund needed to correct income inequality. since the skewness of income distribution is persistently exhibited for different statistical populations, the lorenz curve becomes a method to analyze the skew distributions. therefore, the pearsonian family distributions are rival functions to explain income distribution. there is also a relation between the area under the lorenz curve and the corresponding probability distribution function (see, kendall and stuart (1977)). that is, when the probability distribution function is known, we may find the corresponding lorenz curve and gini index as well. estimation of the lorenz curve has some difficulties. for this estimation, we should define an appropriate functional form that can accept different curvatures. there is another problem, that is, to create a large-size dataset for estimating the corresponding parameters of the lorenz curve, a large amount of computation on raw sample income data is inevitable. these problems, despite their computational difficulties, make the significance of the estimated parameters weak (see, bidabad and bidabad (1989)). to avoid this, bidabad (1989a,b) proposed the estimation of the functional form of the lorenz curve by defining and using continuous l1 norm smoothing. the continuous l1 norm estimation problems of linear one and two parameter models were solved by bidabad (1988a,b). the viewpoint of this paper is to introduce a set of “deciles implied inequality indices”, which satisfies the policy implications needs. these indices can be used for reducing the degrees of inequality. we show how to use lorenz curve to measure the distribution of income and to calculate the amount of money needed to be levied on rich and then transferred to the poor to promote income distribution of the society. however, some more mathematical sophistication to estimate the lorenz curve regarding “implied inequality index” was given by bidabad and shahrestani (2008). in that paper, we introduced a shortcut to use the probability density function of population income to estimate the lorenz function parameters. that is the continuous l1 norm smoothing method used to estimate the regression parameters of the lorenz curves corresponding to two different probability density functions: (a) log-normal function that is more suitable for a broader range of income but is not integrable and (b) pareto density distribution function that is integrable. 2. lorenz curve the lorenz curve is a simple case of the concentration surfaces in statistics that are used to show the shape and distribution of inequality in data. in other words, the lorenz curve is a representation of the cumulative income distribution function. it explains what portion of the total income is received by the bottom percentages of the households. the lorenz curve for a random variable with probability density function f(v) may be defined as an ordered pair. ) )( )( ),(( ve vvve vvvp   rv (1) for a continuous density function f(v), (30) can be written as, )))((),(() )( )( ,)(( vxyvx dwwwf dwwwf dwwf v v         (2) taguchi (1972a,b,c,73,81,83,87,88) multiplies the second element of (1) by p(v|v≤v) which is not correct; his definition of (2) is equivalent to ours. we denote (2) by ordered pair (x(v),y(x(v))) where x(v) and y(x(v)) are its elements. "x" is a function which maps "v" to x(v) and "y" is a function which maps x(v) to y(x(v)). the function y(x(v)) is simply the lorenz curve function. we may use the form introduced by gupta (1984) and a modified version of bidabad and bidabad (1989), which benefits from certain properties as the explicit function of the lorenz curve. copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 14 gupta (1984) proposed the functional form, y= xax-1 a>1 (3) the modified version of bidabad and bidabad (1989) suggests the following functional form: y= xbax-1 b≥ 1, a≥ 1 (4) to estimate the above functions we need discrete data from the population, to construct relevant x and y vectors to estimate "a" of (3) or "a" and "b" of (4). 3. implied-inequality-index most inequality indices are concentrated on the statistical aspect of the income distribution. that is, they generally analyze the distribution without inferring about the amount of fund needed to correct income inequality. in this section, we will introduce an inequality index, which shows how much money should be transferred from the upperincome group to the lower group to achieve the desired distribution of income. bidabad and shahrestani (2010) introduced an implied inequality index using l1 norm estimation of the lorenz curve. here we extend this index to be more qualified for income redistribution policies and implications. suppose there is a personal income υ at which, the half of the total income of the population belongs to those who have less than υ, and the other half of the income belongs to those who have a higher income than υ. that is:     v v dwwwfdwwwf )()( (5) by definition, we have:       v v wwfdwwwfdwwwf )()()( (6) that is: 2)(   v dwwwf (7) on the other hand: 21 )( )(       dwwwf dwwwf v (8) according to (2) this is a point on the lorenz curve with the following ordered pair: )21,)((  v dwwwf (9) thus, we define implied-inequality-index (iii) as   v dwwf )( when υ satisfies (5). that is,   v dwwfiii )( when v satisfies 21 )( )(       dwwwf dwwwf v (10) to find iii, (7) should be solved for υ and its value be replaced in (10). as iii approaches ½, distribution becomes more symmetric. if iii tends to 1, distribution tends to be fully right-skewed, indicating high (right) inequality and as iii tends to 0, distribution tends to be left-skewed, and distribution tends to (left) high inequality. the values of iii less than ½, the iii has no economic implication for income distribution. let us define the cost of equalization as: c= [iii-½]×n×μ (11) this expression means that to equalize the distribution of income without changing the average income of the society, the amount of c in terms of money should be transferred from higher income earner to the lower income earner, where n and μ are the population size and average income of the society. we may normalize this index by dividing the equalization cost by total income of the society and find an intersocieties comparable index. that is: copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 15 relative cost of equalization = [(iii-½)×n×μ ] / ( n×μ) = (iii-½) (12) 4. numerical example to illustrate, the following table 1 of income distribution for a hypothetical society is used. consider a society of 400 households with a total income of the society equal to $2000 where 280 poor income earners receive half of it ($1000) and 120 richer earn another 50% ($1000) of the society’s income. these values can be simply understood from table 1. at the half of total income of the society ($1000), the bottom 70% of the population earns 50% of society’s income, and 30% of the top of the population earn other 50% of the total income of the society. according to table 1, we have: n = 400 (number of households) υ = μ = 2000/400=5 (average income) μ lower = 1000/280 = 3.57 (average income of lower category) μ upper = 1000/120 = 8.33, (average income of upper category) iii = 280/400 = 0.7 (implied inequality index) c = (0.7-0.5) × 400×5= $400 (cost of equalization) that is, if we collect total tax of $400 from the top 30% of the population and transfer it to the lower 70% of the income earners, the average income of both groups will be the same: (1000+400)/280 = (1000-400)/ 120 = 5 relative cost of equalization = 0.7-0.5 = 0.2 = %20 that is the cost of such equalization is 20% of the total income of the society. according to table 1, we may depict the iii and the relative cost of equalization on the lorenz curve as follows. this index is illustrated by using columns (4) and (9) of table 1. figure 1 shows the results, as well. in table 1, the column (1) depicts dollar values of income categories, and the column (2) shows the number or frequencies of households in each income category of column (1). columns (3), (4), and (5) are for cumulative frequencies, relative frequencies, and relative cumulative frequencies. column (6) shows the number of lower and higher income earners. column (7) shows the multiplication of the paired elements of the columns (1) and (2). column (8) cumulates (7) and (9) shows the relative cumulative income. the column (10) shows half of the total income of society. table 1: income distribution for a hypothetical society income w frequency f cumulative frequency f relative frequency relative cumulative frequency half income earner w . f (1)*(2) cumulative income relative cumulative income half income ($) (numbers) (numbers) (%) (%) (numbers) ($) ($) ($) ($) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) 1 17 17 4.3% 4.3% 280 17 17 0.9% 1000 2 20 37 5.0% 9.3% 40 57 2.9% 3 95 132 23.8% 33.0% 285 342 17.1% 4 82 214 20.5% 53.5% 328 670 33.5% 5 66 280 16.5% 70.0% 330 1000 50.0% 6 30 310 7.5% 77.5% 120 180 1180 59.0% 7 21 331 5.3% 82.8% 147 1327 66.4% 8 18 349 4.5% 87.3% 144 1471 73.6% 9 17 366 4.3% 91.5% 153 1624 81.2% 10 14 380 3.5% 95.0% 140 1764 88.2% 11 11 391 2.8% 97.8% 121 1885 94.3% 12 4 395 1.0% 98.8% 48 1933 96.7% copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 16 figure 1: implied inequality index iii this figure depicts the information of table 1. the implied inequality index (iii) and the relative cost of equalization are shown as corresponding parts of the lorenz curve 5. deciles-implied-inequality-indices in this section, we will introduce deciles implied inequality indices, which can be simply generalized to quantiles or percentiles indices. they show how much money should be transferred from the upper-income deciles to the lower deciles or quantiles or percentiles groups to achieve the desired distribution of income. as before, suppose there is a personal income υ at which a decile or quantile of the total income of the population belongs to those who have less than υ, and the other income belongs to those who have a higher income than υ. that is for the di (ith decile, i=1, 2, … , 10): 1 2 1 9 ( ) ( ) ... ( ) v v wf w dw wf w dw wf w dw v v        (13) by definition, we have: 1 2 1 9 ( ) ( ) ( ) ... ( ) v v wf w dw wf w dw wf w dw wf w dw v v              (14) that is: 13 3 398 0.8% 99.5% 39 1972 98.6% 1000 14 2 400 0.5% 100.0% 28 2000 100.0% 400 100% 400 2000 2000 copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 17 1 2 1 9 ( ) 10 ( ) 2 10 ( ) 10 10 v wf w dw v wf w dw v wf w dw v            (15) on the other hand: 1 2 1 9 ( ) 1 10 ( ) ( ) 1 10 ( ) ( ) 1 10 ( ) v wf w dw wf w dw v wf w dw v wf w dw wf w dw v wf w dw                  (16) according to (2) these points are on the lorenz curve with the following ordered pairs: ( ( ) , 10), 1,2,...,10 iv wf w dw i i   (17) thus, we define decile-implied-inequality-index (diiii) as ( ) iv f w dw  when υi satisfies (13). that is, ( ) i i v iii f w dwd    when v satisfies ( ) 10 ( ) iv wf w dw i wf w dw       (18) to find diiii, (17) should be solved for υi, and its value be replaced in (18). as diiii approaches i/10, distribution becomes more symmetric. if diiii tends to 1, distribution tends to be fully right-skewed, indicating high (right) inequality and as diiii tends to 0, distribution tends to be left-skewed, and distribution tends to left high inequality. the values of diiii less than i/10, however, have no economic implication for income distribution. let us define the cost of equalization policy as: ci= [diiii-i/10]×n×μ (19) the above expression means that to equalize the distribution of income without changing the average income of the society, the amount of ci should be transferred from higher income earner to lower income earner (lower than the ith decile), where n and μ are the population size and average income of the society. we may normalize this index by dividing the equalization cost by total income of the society and find an intersocieties comparable index. that is: relative decile cost of equalization = [(diiii-i/10)×n×μ ] / ( n×μ) = (diiii-i/10) (20) copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 18 figure 2. the deciles 3 and 8 implied inequality indices (d3iii and d8iii) this figure depicts the two deciles (3 and 8) of decile implied inequality indices and the relative cost of equalization as corresponding parts of the lorenz curve 6. conclusion to have a better understanding and policy arrangements about the equality of income distribution, it is not enough to know the traditional inequality indices. the redistribution policies or income distribution monitoring need to deal with specific budget guidelines to promote the society to a better distributional position. while there are alternative methods for presenting income distribution, there is no best way to present the inequality index, mainly concentrating on fiscal viewpoints. that is, they generally analyze the statistical distribution without inferring about the amount of fund needed to promote income equality. the view of this paper is to introduce a set of deciles implied inequality indices, which satisfies these policy implications needs. the designed deciles implied inequality indices are good fiscal guideposts for monitoring or performing equalization policies of society's income. references atkinson a. b. 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(1967) economic and information theory, amsterdam: north holland, 1967. xu, kuan (2004). how has the literature on gini’s index evolved in the past 80 years?, http://economics.dal.ca/repec/dal/wprarch/howgini.pdf copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. this is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). http://economics.dal.ca/repec/dal/wprarch/howgini.pdf copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr american economic & social review; vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 published by centre for research on islamic banking & finance and business, usa 1 stock market activities and economic growth in nigeria: a cointegration approach ashamu sikiru o. phd department of banking and finance faculty of management sciences lagos state university, ojo, nigeria e-mail: soyerinde2012@gmail.com soyebo yusuf a. phd department of banking and finance faculty of management sciences lagos state university, ojo, nigeria e-mail: yusuf.soyebo@lasu.edu.ng abstract stock markets have been the main catalyst of economic growth in most economies. however, there are mix results on the exact nature of the influence of key stock market variables on economic growth in developing economies. thus, this study examined the effect of stock market measures on economic growth in nigeria. this paper employed an ex-post facto research design using annualized data obtained from the central bank of nigeria (cbn) statistical bulletin and stock exchange fact books for the period 1985 to 2017 and they were analysed using the error correction estimate regression technique at 5% level of significance. the result ecm (-1) is statistically sign and significant, stock market activities such as market capitalization (𝜆1 = 0.0386, p > 0.05), number of deals (𝜆2 = 0.0487, p < 0.05) and all share index (𝜆4= 0.0921, p < 0.05) have positive influence on economic growth, while volume of trading (𝜆3 = -0.6110, p < 0.05) has a negative effect on economic growth. these results suggested that all the specified variables except market capitalization have significant effect on economic growth in nigeria. the study concluded that stock market activities influence the economic growth in nigeria. therefore, it is recommended that investors should take the advantage of the numerous opportunities offered by the stock market while market makers and regulators should continue to operate according to best market practices in order to ensure confidence and continuous patronage by various economic agents. keywords: stock market, market capitalization, economic growth, investors, cointegration. jel classification: g12, g21. 1. introduction generally, the stock market provides the mechanism for assembly and allocation of medium and long-term financial resources between economic units in order to facilitate optimum resource distribution, wealth creation and economic growth. stock market enables financial intermediation as they ensure regular trading in listed financial securities and ensure that quoted firms have adequate access to capital. thus, a functional stock market supports financial system through the provision of alternative finance to business and investment outlet to investment (pan & mishra, 2016). beck and levine (2001) reported that a well-functioning stock market nurtures growth and profit incentives and prompt in risk management as a developed stock market provide liquidity that lowers the cost of capital essential for development, particularly in less developed countries that generate insufficient domestic savings (bencivenga, smith & stair 1996). however, in most emerging economies, financial turnover is slow due to long gestation period required in the ownership transfer process. thus, the transaction costs on the stock market activities often influenced production decision and the growth rate in the economy. similarly, transaction costs tend to fall on the stock market as it develops, the liquidity risk decreases and more illiquid projects can be funded. the link between stock market activities and economic growth in nigeria has been puzzling due to the peculiar nature of stock market activities as well as the mix results turned in by various scholars due to the measurement of variables, data analysis techniques and scope of study. hence, the postulate that stock market activities influence economic growth in nigeria requires further empirical consideration. this study assumes that there is no significant short and long-run relationship between stock market activities and mailto:soyerinde2012@gmail.com copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 2 economic growth in nigeria. the remaining sections of the paper are structured as follows: next are the literature review, methods and materials, followed by results, discussion, recommendations and conclusion. 2. literature review the economic growth of a nation represents the changes in the level of economic activities over a specific period and the stock market has the potentials of spurring economic growth via prompt resource allocation and distribution which result in higher economic activities (popoola, 2014). thus, the role and consequence of an effective capital mobilization mechanism in the development of the economy has been observed in literature. in developing and developed economies, several authors had reported their views on the influence of stock market on economic growth. for example, osei (2005) examined the relationship between stock market development and economic growth in ghana. the result revealed a unidirectional relationship from stock market performance to economic growth. similarly, enisan & olufisayo (2009) studied the influence of stock market performance on economic growth in selected sub – saharan africa using the autoregressive distributed lag on annual data such as market capitalization and gdp. the result revealed that stock market development has positive and significant long run influence on economic growth in egypt. south africa, cote d’ ivoire, kenya, morocco, and zimbabwe. in the same pattern, nowbutsing & odit (2009) examined the influence of stock market development on economic growth in mauritius using the error correction approach on annualized data such as market capitalization, volume of trade and gross domestic product between 1989 and 2006. the result revealed that stock market development influence economic growth in the short run and long run. also, odhiambo (2010) examined relationship between stock market development and economic growth in south africa using the autoregressive distributed lag testing on annual data such as market capitalization, value of trade, market turnover and real gdp per capita between 1971 and 2007. the results revealed a short and long run causal relationship between stock market performance and economic growth. likewise, oskooe (2010) assessed the relationship between stock market performance and economic growth in iran using vector error correction model on quarterly time series data between 1997 and 2008. the results revealed a short and long run interaction between stock performance and economic growth in iran as economic activities play an important feature in stock prices fluctuation in the long run. mishra, mishra, mishra & mishra (2010) examined the influence of stock market efficiency on economic growth in india using multiple regression analysis on quarterly time series data such as market capitalization, market turnover and stock price index between 1991 and 2010. the result showed a nexus between stock market and economic growth. a study by koirala (2011) examined the impact of stock exchange on gross domestic product in united kingdom using a multiple regression analysis and the finding disclosed that market capitalization ratio has positive effect on gross domestic product. fynn (2012) examined the effect of the stock market on economic growth in selected countries using the generalized least squares techniques on annual panel data between 2005 and 2010. the result showed that the nature of stock market influence on growth is country and time specific. wang and ajit (2013) examined the influence of stock market development on economic growth in china using cointegration approach on quarterly data between 1996 and 2011. the result revealed that stock market development has a negative influence on economic growth as its activities are administrative-driven. ikikii & nzomoi (2013) examined the influence of stock market development on economic growth in kenya using multiple regression on quarterly data such as trade volume, market capitalization and economic growth between 2000 and 2011. the result revealed that stock market development has a positive influence on economic growth. similarly, ishioro (2013) examined the causal linkage existing between stock market development and economic growth in zimbabwe using the long-run non-causality technique on quarterly data such as market capitalization and gdp growth rate between 1990 and 2010. the results revealed a bi-directional relationship between economic growth and stock market development. pan and mishra (2016) examined the relationship between stock market development and economic growth in china using the autoregressive distributed lag estimation technique and the results revealed that global financial crises (gfc) had a substantial influence on various economic activities as stock market has a negative influence on the economy. similarly, an evidence of a demand driven hypothesis was observed as economic growth influence stock market development. in nigeria, several studies have examined the nature of the interaction between stock market activities and economic growth but their measurement of variables and results yield mix reports. for instance, kolapo & adaramola (2012) examined the influence of stock market on economic growth in nigeria using co-integration and granger causality test on annual data such as gross domestic product, market capitalization, total transactions and listed equities. the results showed that stock market activities have positive influence on economic growth. equally, okodua & ewetan (2013) examined the influence of stock market performance and sustainable economic growth in nigeria using the autoregressive distributed lag estimation technique and the result revealed that economic growth is insignificant to stock market performance. okoye & nwisienyi (2013) examined the influence of stock market on economic growth in nigeria using multiple regression analysis on annual data such as all share index, market value, capitalisation and gdp between 2000 and 2010. the result revealed that stock market has a significant influence on economic growth. echekoba, ezu and egbunike (2013) examined the influence of stock market on economic growth in nigeria using multivariate regression on copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 3 annualized data such as all share index, market capitalisation and gdp between 1999 and 2011. the result revealed that market capitalization and all share index have positive influence on economic growth. equally, jibril, salihi, wambai, ibrahim, muhammad & ahmad (2015) examined the influence of stock market development on economic growth in nigeria using multiple correlation and regression analysis on annual data such as value of stock traded, market size, capitalisation and gdp between 1990 and 2010. the result showed that market capitalization and value of stock traded exact a negative influence on economic growth while turnover exacts a positive influence on economic growth. afolabi (2015) assessed the influence of stock market on the nigerian economy using multiple regression analysis on annual data such as gross domestic product, market capitalization, foreign direct investment, inflation rates, new issues, transaction values and listed firms between 1992 and 2011. the result of the data analysis revealed an insignificant interaction between stock market and the nigerian economy. popoola, ejemeyovwi, alefe, adu & onabote (2017) examined the influence of stock market on and economic growth in nigeria using the error correction model on annualized data such as real gross domestic product, gross capital formation, market capitalization, all share index and value of transaction between 1980 and 2014. the result revealed that most of the selected measure exact a negative insignificant influence on economic growth. 3. methods and materials the study obtained annual secondary data on stock market activities and economic growth in nigeria from the central bank of nigeria (cbn) statistical bulletin for the period between 1986 and 2017. the choice of this period coincides with the commencement of the stock market all share index computation in nigeria. the study examined the influence of stock market activities on economic growth in nigeria. the mathematical equation for estimating the relationship between stock market activities and economic growth is derived from the efficient market hypothesis (emh) which states that a financial market is efficient on prices of dealing financial assets as they are balanced and reflect all appropriate information as well as collective beliefs and preference of all market participants about the financial instruments’ market prospect (fama, 1970). copeland & weston (1979), observed that the emh is not much restrictive than perfect stock market as market prices fully and instantaneously reflect all available information though it may not be realistic within the concept of asymmetric information. thus, the measurement of market efficiency is contingent on the available information and varies according to nature of events in the stock market. the information can be in form of message (m) having diverse values to different market participants as the potential desirable outcome from the information relative to the wealth maximization objective function and information can encourage decision making. thus, the value v(η) of information derived from the efficient stock market can be quantified as follows: ( ) ( ) ( / ) ( , ) a m e v q m max p e m u a e =  (1) where, v(η) = value of the measured information η. q(m) = the marginal probability of receiving message m. p(e/m) = the conditional probability of an event € given a message (m). u(a,e) = the utility resulting from a decision (a)if an event (e) occurs. this is referred to as a benefit function or payoff function which can be calibrated mathematically with the stock market activities as: 𝐺𝐷𝑃 = 𝑓(𝑀𝐶, 𝑁𝑂𝐷, 𝑉𝑂𝑇, 𝐴𝐿𝑆𝐼) (2) statistically the equation is represented as: 𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑇 = 𝜆0 + 𝜆1𝑀𝐶𝑡 + 𝜆2𝑁𝑂𝐷𝑡 + 𝜆3𝑉𝑂𝑇𝑡 + 𝜆4𝐴𝐿𝑆𝐼𝑡 + 𝜖𝑡 (3) where gdp = gross domestic product in nigeria; mc = market capitalization of the stock exchange nod = numbers of deals vot = volume of trade alsi = all share index however, due to the diverse nature of the selected components of the measures of stock market activities, it is imperative to take the logarithm of the model in order to bring the variables into identical base. thus, the model becomes: log𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑇 = 𝜆0 + 𝜆1𝐿𝑜𝑔𝑀𝐶𝑡 + 𝜆2𝐿𝑜𝑔𝑁𝑂𝐷𝑡 + 𝜆3𝐿𝑜𝑔𝑉𝑂𝑇𝑡 + 𝜆4𝐿𝑜𝑔𝐴𝐿𝑆𝐼𝑡 + 𝜖𝑡 (4) thus, equation (3) is the base line equation for this study. estimation procedure copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 4 unit root test a major pre-test before a cointegration estimation is the unit root test, a stationary time series test which check if the mean and autocovariances of a series time independent. a simple model for nonstationary is the random walk. 𝑦𝑡 = 𝑦𝑡−1 + 𝜖𝑡 (5) 𝑦 is a constant forecast value conditional on t with an increasing variance while 𝜖 is the stochastic term. a difference stationary series is integrated and symbolized as i(d) where d is the order of integration which is the number of a series unit roots or number of differencing operations required to make the series stationary. cointegration test having established the unit root test of all the variables employed, the study test for cointegration using the var-based approach developed by johansen (1991). this cointegration test was designed using a group object based on a var of order p: 𝑦𝑡 = 𝐴1𝑦𝑡−1 + ⋯ + 𝐴𝑝𝑦𝑡−𝑝 + 𝐵𝑥𝑡 + 𝜖𝑡 (6) where: 𝑦𝑡 represents k-vector of non-stationary i(1) variables, 𝑥𝑡 represents d-vector of deterministic variables, and 𝜖𝑡 represents vector of innovations. this model can be modified as: ∆𝑦𝑡 = π𝑦𝑡−1 + ∑ γ𝑖 𝑝−1 𝑖−1 ∆𝑦𝑡−𝑖 + 𝐵𝑥𝑖 + 𝜖𝑖 (7) where: π = ∑ 𝐴𝑖 − 𝐼, 𝑝 𝑖=1 γ𝑖 = − ∑ 𝐴𝑗 𝑝 𝑗=𝑖+1 (8) granger’s representation theorem states that if the coefficient matrix π has reduced rank such that r is less than k, then there exist k x r matrices α and β each with a rank of r such that π is equal to 𝛼𝛽′ while 𝛽′ 𝑦𝑡 is i(0). r represents the number of cointegrating relations and each column of β represents the cointegrating vector. also, the elements of αs are the error correction model adjustment parameters. the johansen’s method estimates the π matrix from an unrestricted var and test if the restrictions created by the reduced rank of π. ecm regression based on the results of the unit root and cointegration tests, the study estimate the ecm regression associated with autoregressive distributed lag (ardl) derived through the lagged levels and first difference of 𝑦𝑡 , 𝑥1𝑡 , 𝑥2𝑡, …, 𝑥𝑘𝑡 , and 𝑤𝑡 . 𝜙(𝐿, 𝑝)𝑦𝑡 = ∑ 𝛽𝑖 𝑘 𝑖=1 (𝐿, 𝑞𝑖)𝑥𝑖𝑡 + 𝛿′𝑤𝑡 + 𝜇𝑡 (9) where l represent a lag operator such that 𝐿𝑦𝑡 = 𝑦𝑡−1 𝑤𝑡 is a s x 1 vector of deterministic variables such as the intercept term, seasonal dummies or (time trends, or exogenous variables with fixed lags. the model is linked thus: 𝑦𝑡 = δ𝑦𝑡 + 𝑦𝑡−1 (9) 𝑦𝑡−𝑠 = 𝑦𝑡−1 − ∑ δ𝑦𝑡−𝑗, 𝑠−1 𝑗=1 𝑠 = 1,2, … , 𝑞𝑖 (10) 𝑤𝑡 = δ𝑤𝑡 + 𝑤𝑡−1 (11) 𝑥𝑖𝑡 = δ𝑥𝑖𝑡 + 𝑥𝑖,𝑡−1 (12) 𝑥𝑖,𝑡−𝑠 = 𝑥𝑡−𝑠 − ∑ δ𝑥𝑖, 𝑡−𝑗, 𝑠−1 𝑗=1 𝑠 = 1,2, … , 𝑞𝑖 (13) substituting equations 8-12 into equation 7 and simplify further, the model gives equation 14 thus: copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 5 ∆𝑦𝑡 = −𝜙(1, 𝑝)𝐸𝐶𝑡−1 + ∑ 𝛽𝑖0δ𝑥𝑖𝑡 𝑘 𝑖=1 + 𝛿′δw𝑡 − ∑ 𝜙𝑗 ∗ 𝑝−1 𝑗=1 δ𝑦𝑡−𝑗 − ∑ ∑ 𝛽𝑖𝑗 ∗ 𝑞𝑖−1 𝑗=1 𝑘 𝑖=1 δ𝑥𝑖,𝑡−𝑗 + 𝑢𝑡 (14) where 𝐸𝐶𝑡 is the correction term defined as 𝐸𝐶𝑡 = 𝑦𝑡 − ∑ �̂�𝑖 𝑘 𝑖=1 𝑥𝑖𝑡 − 𝜓′𝑤𝑡 (15) 5. results and discussions table 1. augmented dickey-fuller test statistic for the variables * significant at 5% level of significance source: (authors’ computation, 2018) table 1 presents the results of augmented dickey-fuller test statistics for all the variables at level and first differences. the adf test allows for heterogeneous coefficients with a null hypothesis that the specified variables follow a unit root process and to reject this, the adf probability value must be less than or equal to 0.05. the adf test revealed that all variables are i(1) and stationary at first difference. based on the result, this study proceed to the cointegration test and the result is presented in table 2. table 2. trace and maximum eigenvalue cointegration rank test results hypothesized no. of ce(s) trace test statistics prob. max-eigen statistics prob. none 174.08 0.0000* 94.7510 0.0000* at most 1 79.3322 0.0000* 34.6936 0.0052* at most 2 44.6386 0.0005* 21.0466 0.0514 at most 3 23.5920 0.0024* 13.4536 0.0669 at most 4 10.1383 0.0015* 10.1383 0.0015* * significant at 5% level of significance source: (authors’ computation, 2018) table 2 revealed that the trace test statistics established four (4) cointegrating equations while the max-eigen statistics established two (2) cointegrating equations. this implies that a cointegrating relationship exist among the specified variables and create the basis for the computation of the ecm. the result of the ecm is represented in table 3. table 3. error correction model result dependent variable: dloggdp variable coefficient std. error t-ratio prob. dlogmc 0.0386 .04116 .93886 0.356 dlognod 0.0487 0.0270 1.8031 0.083 dlogvot -0.0611 0.0315 -1.9386 0.063 dlogalsi 0.0921 0.0301 3.0568 0.005 ecm (-1) -0.0955 0.0434 -2.2004 0.037 r-squared 0.5157 mean dependent var 0.0845 adjusted r-squared 0.4439 s.d. dependent var 0.0488 s.e. of regression 0.0364 sum squared resid 0.0358 equation log-likelihood 63.3355 akaike info. criterion 58.3355 f-stat. f (4,27) 7.1873 (0.00) schwarz bayesian criterion 54.6712 durbin-watson stat 1.8105 level first difference statistic prob. statistic prob. interpretation loggdp 1.153462 0.9999 -4.137249 0.0141* i(1) logmc -0.540636 0.9759 -4.435531 0.0070* i(1) lognod -1.049364 0.9221 -5.727334 0.0003* i(1) logvot -1.156397 0.9026 -4.198723 0.0126* i(1) logalsi -0.649602 0.9685 -4.878740 0.0037* i(1) copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 6 * significant at 5% level of significance source: (authors’ computation, 2018) table 3 shows the ecm result coefficients, standard error, t-statistics and probability values for all the specified model. the result reveals the influence of each explanatory variable on economic growth in nigeria. the ecm result (-0.0955, p < 0.05) is statistically sign and significant which implies that the speed of adjustment to equilibrium is 9.55% and offset are adjusted in each period. the stock market activities measurement such as market capitalization (𝜆1 = 0.0386, p > 0.05), number of deals (𝜆2 = 0.0487, p < 0.05) and all share index (𝜆4= 0.0921, p < 0.05) have positive influence on economic growth, while the volume of trading (𝜆3 = -0.6110, p < 0.05) has a negative effect on economic growth. similarly, the coefficient of determination (r2) value of 0.5157 implies that stock market activities can explain about 51.57% variation in economic growth in nigeria while the fstatistic value indicates that all the estimated coefficients are statistically different from zero at 5% level of significance. these results suggested that all the specified variables except market capitalization have significant effect on economic growth in nigeria within the period investigated. 6. conclusion and recommendation this study examined the influence of stock market activities on economic growth in nigeria and the results showed a statistically sign and significant ecm with measures such as number of deals, all share index and volume of trading have a significant influence on economic growth in nigeria. this implies that the number of deals and all share index are the main indicator of stock market activities in nigeria that influence economic growth positively within the period while the volume of trading exacts a negative influence due to transaction costs and its ancillary. similarly, the study revealed that market capitalization has a positive influence on economic growth, though the extent of the influence is not significant. the study recommend that investors should take the advantage of the various opportunities offered by the stock market in nigeria while market makers and regulators should continue to operate according to acceptable best market practices and global standards in order to ensure increased confidence and continuous patronage by various economic agents. references afolabi, a. a. (2015). impact of the nigerian capital market on the economy, european journal of accounting auditing and finance research, 3(2), 88-96. beck, t. & levine, r. (2001). stock markets, banks, and growth: correlation or causality? policy research working paper 2670, washington dc: world bank. bencivenga, v. r., smith, b. & starr, m. (1996). equity markets, transaction costs, and capital accumulation: an illustration. world bank economic review, 10, 64365. copeland, t. e. & weston j. f. (1979). financial theory and corporate policy, 3, 32-26. echekoba, f. n., ezu, g. k. & egbunike, c. f. (2013). the impact of capital market on the growth of the nigerian economy under democratic rule, arabian journal of business and management review, 3(2), 53-62. enisan, a. & olufisayo, a.o.(2009). stock market development and economic growth: evidence from seven sub-sahara african countries. journal of economics and business, 61(2). fama, e.f. (1970). the behaviour of stock market prices, journal of business, 39(1), 31-65. fynn, k. d. (2012). does the equity market affect economic growth? macalester review journal, 2(2), 1-12. ikikii, s. m. & nzomoi, j. n. (2013). an analysis of the effects of stock market development on economic growth in kenya, international journal of economics and finance, 5(11), 145-155. ishioro o. b. (2013). stock market development and economic growth: evidence from zimbabwe. ekon. misao praksa dbk jibril, s. r., salihi, a. a., wambai, u. s., ibrahim, f. b., muhammad, s. and ahmad, t. h. (2015). an assessment of nigerian stock exchange market development to economic growth, american international journal of social science, 4(2), 5158. johansen, s. (1991). estimation and hypothesis testing for cointegration vectors in gaussian vector autoregressive models. econometrica, 59,1551-1580. koirala, j. (2011). the effect of stock market development on economic growth: an empirical analysis of uk, electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2494640 kolapo, f. t. & adaramola, a. o. (2012). the impact of the nigerian capital market on economic growth (1990-2010), international journal of developing societies, 1(1),11–19. mishra, p.k., u.s., mishra, u.s., mishra, b.r., & mishra. p. (2010). capital market efficiency and economic growth: the case of india. european journal of economics, finance and administrative sciences issue ,27 (18), 130-138. nowbutsing, b. m. & odit, p. m. (2009). stock market development and economic growth:the case of mauritius, international business and economics research journal, 8(2), 7788. http://ssrn.com/abstract=2494640 copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 7 odhiambo, n.m. (2010). stock market development and economic growth in south africa: an ardi bounds. department of economics, university of south africa. okodua, h., & ewetan, o. o. (2013). stock market performance and sustainable economic growth in nigeria: a bounds testing co-integration approach. journal of sustainable development, 6(8). okoye, v. o. & nwisienyi, k. j. (2013). the capital market contributions towards economic growth and development: the nigerian experience, global advanced research journal of management and business studies, 2(2), 120-125. osei, v. (2005). does the stock market in ghana? a granger causality analysis bank of ghana working paper ,05(13). oskooe, s.a.p. (2010). emerging stock market performance and economic growth. school of economics, kingston university. american journal of applied sciences, 7(2), 265-269. pan l. & mishra v. (2016). stock market development and economic growth: empirical evidence from china. department of economics discussion paper 16/16, issn 14415429, monash business school. popoola, o. (2014). the effect of stock market on nigerian economy. unpublished manuscript, department of economics, landmark university, kwara state, nigeria. popoola o.r, ejemeyovwi o. j, alege, o.p., adu o., & onabote a. a. (2017). stock market and economic growth in nigeria. international journal of english literature and social sciences, 2(6), 97-106 wang, b. & ajit d. (2013). stock market and economic growth in china. economic bulletin, access econ, 33(1), 95-103. copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. this is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr american economic & social review; vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 published by centre for research on islamic banking & finance and business, usa 32 adaptation of traditional festivals to natural resources conservation education: lessons from osun-osogbo and argungun fishing festivals in nigeria adekunle olatumile phd department of adult education adekunle ajasin university akungba-akoko, nigeria tel: +2347065049411 e-mail: kunletumile@gmail.com abstract africa has been tagged a festival continent as year in year out, towns and villages witness cultural festivals throughout the year. these festivals are mostly concerned with resources conservation and utilization. the adoption of western model of conserving biodiversity in the trickle-down fashion has failed to yield reasonable result; whereas traditional festivals epitomize indigenous people’s respect and reverence for, and pragmatic understanding of, their natural environment. the quest of conserving biodiversity for sustainable development therefore calls for the integration of traditional festivals in sustainable resource management framework. in spite of the invaluable potentials of traditional festivals in biodiversity conservation as an indigenous resource management system, it has not been given a prominent place in the modern day scientific resource management framework. using ethnographic research design, the paper exploits the natural resources conservation potentials of osunosogbo and argungun fishing festivals in nigeria. data are collected from archival, ethnographic and internet materials, as well as text books, pictures and information through interviews and observations. the paper presents an analysis of ways through which policy frameworks can benefit from festivals and how a wide audience can be reached with biodiversity conservation messages for the purpose of creating awareness. the paper develops a framework for ecosystem based adaptation, using indigenous festivals for the purpose of replicating it in every other community where such festivals do not exist and integrating it in festivals that are not based on natural resource conservation. keywords: festival; environment, ecosystems; climate change; resource management 1. introduction the issue of environmental protection and sustainability has dominated global discourse lately, and going by unfolding events of natural disasters, it will continue to gain prominence in addressing the problems facing humanity now and in the next centuries. human beings depend on basic goods and services biodiversity provides for survival. they in most cases exploit biodiversity far beyond basic requirement for survival, they also utilise biodiversity and its goods and services to support ‘the acquisition of wealth, development of culture, infrastructure for travel and communication, and many other elements that contribute to the establishment and maintenance of societies (pirot, meynell and elder, 2000). human being therefore, in the quest of survival and enjoying decent and comfortable life seem to utilize biodiversity in a manner that does not care for those coming behind. this gives rise to the global discourse on biodiversity and ecosystem management for the continued survival of man. consequently, a lot of strategies for biodiversity conservation have been introduced, of which the traditional approach has been the conservation of species and establishing protected areas. this approach has been fraught with glaring limitations as it has yielded limited result. it has been noted that biodiversity will not be conserved effectively in protected areas alone. the existing global network of protected areas is too small and, under prevailing social and economic conditions, any major expansion of this network seems unlikely. many existing protected areas are under threat and, even where significant areas have been placed in protected areas, prevailing development patterns are creating barriers to species interaction and migration. the fragmentation of natural habitats has reduced the long term viability of protected areas by making species more vulnerable to genetic erosion and the impact of climate change (kakababe, 2000). if the goals of sustainable development are to be achieved there is a dire need to understand the invaluable role of sustainable natural resource conservation strategies that are locally integrated. the convention on biological diversity recognizes that the close and traditional dependence of local and traditional communities embodies traditional lifestyles on biological resources, and the desirability of sharing equitably benefits arising from the use of traditional knowledge, innovations and copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 33 practices relevant to the conservation of biological diversity and the sustainable use of its components. it suggested in article 8 section h, that each contracting party shall, as far as possible and as appropriate subject to its national legislation, respect, preserve and maintain knowledge, innovations and practices of indigenous and local communities embodying traditional lifestyles relevant for the conservation and sustainable use of biological diversity and promote their wider application with the approval and involvement of the holders of such knowledge, innovations and practices and encourage the equitable sharing of the benefits arising from the utilization of such knowledge, innovations and practices (cbd 2012). in furtherance of this, the tenth meeting of the conference of the parties, held from 18 to 29 october 2010, in nagoya, aichi prefecture, japan, adopted a revised and updated strategic plan for biodiversity, including the aichi biodiversity targets, for the 2011-2020 period, and urged parties and government to develop national and regional targets in the framework of the aichi biodiversity targets. target 18 stipulated that: by 2020, the traditional knowledge, innovations and practices of indigenous and local communities relevant for the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity, and their customary use of biological resources, are respected, subject to national legislation and relevant international obligations, and fully integrated and reflected in the implementation of the convention with the full and effective participation of indigenous and local communities, at all relevant levels. one important traditional institution that can be effectively utilised for sustainable biodiversity conservation is festival. africa has been tagged a festival continent, because year in year out festivals are held almost in every part of the continent. festival is an occasion for celebrating a day or time of religious or cultural significance that recurs at regular intervals. it is a time people do something that they would normally not do; they abstain from something they normally do; they carry to the extreme behaviours that are usually regulated by measure; they invert patterns of daily social life. reversal, intensification, trespassing and abstinence are the four cardinal points of festival behavior (babcock 1978 cited in mathias 2014). a perusal of literature shows festival as recurring periodic days or seasons set aside by communities or clans for a celebration or feast, a season of musical or other performances, joyfulness and merry making, observance of sacred celebrations, religious solemnities and traditional performances of special significance, which are an integral part of the african traditional society and functions for societal integration and solidarity (famuyiwa 1992. mathias 2014 and ezenagu & olatunji 2014). festivals are an integral part of the cycle of life of a traditional african man or woman. from conception to birth and finally death, there is a strong inclination towards festivals which is a traditional institution. these traditional institutions are common to all human societies. virtually in all african communities, festivities constitute a benchmark for marking various stages tantamount to befitting life. it is one of the ways through which man expresses his awareness of transcendental beings outside himself… festivals are the manifestation of culture in any traditional society. they are entertaining events which offer opportunities for celebrating and learning age long traditions (ezenagu & olatunji 2014). given the contemporary african environment, festival often possesses elements of unity that is why festival is also a medium of cultural, educational, intergenerational and communicational importance. with this, it is able to play an important role in the preservation of cultural heritage, transmission of knowledge and communal experiences as a people to future generations (adegbite 2010). nwosu (2010) has put in fore the symbiotic connection between natural environment and human survival when he stressed that the natural environment is closely tied to integral human life, and without it, human life may not be sustained. natural environment includes social, religious, linguistic, economic, and other cultural elements. in fact, the distinct understanding of these elements and their relative values can be closely correlated. thus, in this 21st century, people in various sectors of life are coming to understand the central fact that the natural environment has to be protected and sustained. juxtaposing this with the submission of chandra (2012) underscores the invaluable role festivals can play in sustainable resource management in africa. he maintained that sustainable natural resource management is driven by the beliefs and behaviours of human communities and local cultures are strengthened by their immediate connections to the natural environments that sustain them. our modern world is often poorer for the scientific rationalism that treats objective and sacred knowledge as different entities, while traditional cultures do not make such distinction. however traditional knowledge based systems could qualify as having conservation value if they satisfy two basic criteria (a) prevent or mitigate resource depletion, species extirpation or habitat degradation and (b) be designed to do so. 2. description of nigeria’s biodiversity nigeria occupies a unique geographic position in africa and the variability in climate and geographic features endows her with one of the richest biodiversity in the continent. its diversity of natural ecosystems ranges from semi-arid savanna to mountain forests, rich seasonal floodplain environments, rainforests, vast freshwater swamp forests and diverse coastal vegetation. nigeria’s niger delta contains the largest tract of mangrove in africa. the individual components of biodiversity – genes, species, and ecosystems provide our society with a wide array of goods and services. (frn, 2010). a country report published in 1992 by the federal environmental protection agency (fepa) indicated that nigeria possesses more than 5,000-recorded species of plants, 22,090 species of animals, including insects and 889 species of birds, and 1,489 species of microorganisms. it estimated that 0.4% of the plant species are threatened and 8.5 % endangered, with 0.14% copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 34 of the animals and insects threatened and 0.22% endangered. the country study listed 135 reptilian species, 109 amphibian species and 648 fish species and recognized the forests in cross river state of nigeria to be a hotspot for amphibian biodiversity. nigeria is known as a global hotspot for primate species, with a great diversity found especially in the gulf of guinea forests of cross river state. some of the endemic species include three monkeys, the white-throated monkey (cercopithecus erythrogaster), sclater’s guenon (cercopithecus sclateri) and the niger delta red colobus (procolobus pennantii epieni) and four bird species, the anambra waxbill (estrilda poliopareia), the ibadan malimbe, (malimbus ibadanensis), the jos plateau indigo-bird (vidua maryae) and the rock fire-finch lagonostica sanguinodorsalis. the most endangered gorilla subspecies on earth, the cross river gorilla (gorilla gorilla diehli) with an estimated population of less than 250 individuals is found only in a couple of protected areas in cross-river state, south eastern nigeria. (frn, 2010). the iucn red list of threatened species (i.e. of globally threatened species) includes 148 animals and 146 plants that are found in nigeria. of these, 26 animals and 18 plants are classified as endangered and another three animals and 15 plants are critically endangered worldwide. (frn, 2010). natural and man-made threats, socio-cultural problems as well as direct and indirect consequences of socio-economic development have contributed to the erosion of biodiversity at all levels. within the last 25 years, it is believed that about 43% of the forest ecosystem has been lost through human activities. nigeria, with a population of over 140 million people constitutes nearly a quarter of the total population of sub-saharan africa. a population growth rate of more than 3 % and increasing poverty (especially in rural areas) has put severe demand on the country’s natural resources, the institutional structures and the resources available to manage them. there has been a general institutional weakness and lack of technical capacity to effectively tackle the nation’s environmental issues, including threat to biological diversity. (frn, 2010). 3. nigeria national biodiversity strategy and action plan the goal of the national biodiversity strategy and action plan (nbsap) is ‘to develop appropriate framework and programme instruments for the conservation of nigeria’s biological diversity and enhance its sustainable use by integrating biodiversity consideration into national planning, policy and decision-making processes. this strategy is part of her commitments under the convention on biological diversity and a testimony to her responsibilities to her future generations. the nbsap addressed the following areas which have guided nigeria’s various conservation priorities and actions biodiversity conservation: the nigerian government recognizes the need to conserve its biological diversity and has made a commitment to conserve nigeria’s 25% of total forest area. emphasis is placed on in situ conservation of biodiversity within protected areas such as forest reserves, game reserves, national parks and wildlife sanctuaries. in situ conservation outside protected areas will be encouraged to complement conservation of biological diversity inside protected areas, to secure nigeria’s biodiversity for future generations. priority attention is placed on conservation of unique ecological characteristics and ecosystems such as mountain, mangrove, wetlands, savanna and rain forests and transit sites for migratory species. (frn, 2010). 4. conservation of agro-biodiversity due to the diversity of habitats in nigeria and the tropical climate, there is great diversity of plant species, including several that have been domesticated. nigeria’s plants include many species with traditional value as food items, medicines and for var ious domestic uses and a number of these have been catalogued in various specific areas of the country. nigeria is also an epicenter for diversity of wild varieties of important crop plants. a number of these wild crops and their relatives although more adapted to the environment and climate are being replaced with new varieties/cultivars and are therefore threatened with extinction (frn, 2010). in order to achieve the set goals, article 10 of the nbsap makes concrete provision for a programme of research, extension and education that will enhance sustainable biodiversity conservation, and thus suggests the “sustainable use of components of biological diversity especially the aspects concerning the protection and encouragement of customary use of biological resources in accordance with traditional cultural practices that are compatible with conservation and sustainable use requirements” (frn, 2010). 5. traditional festivals as means of biodiversity conservation every region of nigeria has at least one major festival that attracts tourists all over the world. these festivals are mostly concerned with resources conservation and utilization, maintaining and promoting traditional life. thus traditional festivals celebrate issues that border on occupation like fishing, hunting and farming. some other traditional festivals are built around the preservation of the sanctity of sacred geographies and sacred natural sites like land, mountain, forests, rivers and so on. traditional respect for the environment and access restrictions to sacred sites have often led to well-conserved areas with high biological diversity within otherwise degraded environment (sheat 2003 cited in negi 2010). traditional festivals sustain existing cultural beliefs and social practices that include sacred groves/forest, water, land, wildlife conservation, resource utilization taboos, folktales and traditional religion in most nigerian societies. through such beliefs and practices, traditional knowledge and indigenous environmental wisdom which is part of the corpus of african indigenous knowledge system (aiks) copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 35 in such communities, have been passed on from generation to generation (soola, 2009). cultural diversity in these communities is closely linked to biodiversity, as there is a symbiotic relationship between ecosystem and cultural identity, indeed religious rules and rituals often strengthen this relationship and they are characterized by conservation ethics (negi, 2010). traditional festivals epitomize indigenous people respect and reverence for and pragmatic understanding of their natural environment. the quest of conserving biodiversity for sustainable development therefore calls for the integration of traditional festival in the sustainable resource management framework. in spite of the invaluable potentials of traditional festivals in biodiversity conservation as an indigenous resource management system, it has not been given a prominent place in the modern day scientific resource management framework. whereas in traditional societies, sustainable natural resource management is driven by the beliefs and behaviours of human communities, and local cultures are strengthened by their intimate connections to the natural environment that sustains them. our modern world is often poorer for their scientific rationalism that treats objective and sacred knowledge as separate spheres. while traditional cultures do not make such distinctions (negi, 2010). hence a deliberate attempt to case study african indigenous festivals that will model the integration of this important indigenous knowledge system into the country’s resource management framework is germane. this is where the two prominent festivals of conservation significance, the osun osogbo festival and argungun fishing festival used as reference points in this work, play an important role. 6. osun osogbo festival osun osogbo festival is celebrated annually in osogbo the capital of osun state in south-western nigeria. it holds at the end of every second quarter of the year and normally lasts four weeks. the festivities take place in the osun sacred grove, which according to unesco is the largest and perhaps the only remaining example of a once widespread phenomenon that used to characterise every yoruba settlement. it now represents yoruba sacred groves and their reflection of yoruba cosmology. it is a tangible expression of yoruba divinatory and cosmological systems; its annual festival is a living thriving and evolving response to yoruba beliefs in the bond between people, their ruler and the osun goddess. the grove covers 75 ha of ring-fenced forest alongside the osun river on the outskirts of osogbo town, western nigeria. about 2 million people live in osogbo. the grove in yoruba cosmology is the domicile of osun, the goddess of fertility. ritual paths lead devotees to forty shrines, dedicated to osun and other yoruba deities, and to nine specific worship points beside the river. osun is the yoruba personification of the 'waters of life' and the spiritual mother of the osogbo township. it also symbolizes a pact between larooye, the founder of osogbo, and osun the goddess that gave prosperity and protection to her people if they built a shrine to her and respected the spirit of the forest. unlike other yoruba towns whose sacred groves have atrophied, or disappeared, the osogbo grove has, over the past forty years, been re-established as a central, living focus of the town. the osogbo grove is now seen as a symbol of identity for all yoruba people, including those of the african diaspora, many of whom make pilgrimages to the annual festival (unesco, 2005). in 2005 the grove was listed in unesco world heritage list. the grove has a mature, reasonably undisturbed, forest canopy, which supports a rich and diverse flora and fauna including the endangered white-throated monkey. some parts were cleared in the colonial period, and teak plantations and agriculture introduced, but these are now being re-established. the grove is a highly sacred sanctuary where shrines, sculptures and artworks honour osun and other yoruba deities. it has five main sacred divisions associated with different gods and cults , located either side of a path transecting the grove from north-west to south-east. the osun river meanders through the whole grove and along its length are nine worship points. throughout the grove the broad river is overhung with forest trees. its waters signify a relationship between nature, the spirits and human beings, reflecting the place given to water in the yoruba cosmology as symbolizing life. the river is believed to have healing, protective and fertility powers. the fish are said to have been used by the goddess osun as messengers of peace, blessings and favour. (unesco, 2005). the annual osun-osogbo festival is a 12-day event held once a year at the end of july and the beginning of august. the grove is seen as the repository of kingship, as well as the spiritual heart of the community. the grand finale of the festival is a procession of the whole population, led by the votary maid arugba and headed by the oba and priests, all accompanied by drumming, singing and dancing. 7. argungun fishing festival the argungu fishing festival is the culmination of a four-day cultural event in the north-western nigerian state of kebbi. the state is naturally endowed with rivers such as the niger and rima that enhance fisheries activities, which have been one of the main occupations of the people of the state (asogwa, umeh and okwoche 2012b). the festival is a tool for conserving natural resources, maintaining and promoting traditional life….the effective conservation of natural resources is closely linked to the use of the local knowledge and hence the life of the community. (asogwa, umeh and okwoche 2012a and asogwa, umeh and okwoche 2012b). the festival marks the end of the growing season and the harvest. a one mile (1.6 kilometer) stretch of the argungu river is protected throughout the year, so that the fish will be plentiful for this one hour fishing competition. more copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 36 than 30,000 fishermen had taken part in this annual festival. people from all over west africa have come to participate in the fishing contest in the waters of the river mata fada, using nets and traditional gourds made with calabashes a sort of pumpkin dried and hollowed. the fisherman who catches the biggest fish wins a prize of 7000 dollars. thousands of fishermen line up like an ancient army, carrying their traditional nets and gourds. at the sound of a gun, they pound towards the narrow river and leap into the water. they have just one hour to catch the biggest fish. fishermen only come here once a year on the day of the festival. at the end of the hour, the competitors have their fish piled up at the foot of the weighing machine and are tagged and weighed. the fishing festival has continued as an annual event, with additional cultural and sporting activities, attracting about five hundred thousand spectators from all over nigeria, and all over the world. it also attracts local and international media coverage, including the cnn and bbc (dantata, 2007 cited in asogwa, umeh and okwoche 2012b). tourists and guests for the occasion troop in large numbers from europe, britain, united states, russia, south east asia, and neighbouring african countries like niger, benin republic, cameroon, etc. cultural troupes and heads of missions of most nations that attended festac ‘77 also witnessed the festival. almost all nigerian heads of state and presidents have witnessed the festival. 8. biodiversity resources conserved through the festivals the osun osogbo and argungun fishing festivals have engendered conservation of a diverse variety of flora and fauna which ordinarily would have been impaired by human activities. the forest canopy in the heart of osogbo, a state capital in south west nigeria, is a scene to behold. there is no city that can parade such biodiversity infrastructure in nigeria. the osun river that meanders through the forest is in its natural state as no human activities is allowed therein, the wide variety of trees and other plants adorn the forest. some of the trees and plants may not be found around the communities as they must have been depleted. the grove also accommodates different varieties of animals which visibly include bats and the white mouthed monkey that is classified as endangered. the land in the grove is still reasonably intact as it is not prone to either wind or water erosion. to crown it all, no human activities is allowed in the grove, it is totally forbidden. the beauty of it is that, without any security architect created to enforce this, no person dare enter the grove to contravene this taboo as spirituality is attached to everything about the grove and the festival. the river mata fada is conserved throughout the year as result of the festival, because at the end of the festival a reasonable stretch of the river is restricted from fishing activities so as to prepare the river for another bountiful harvest the following year. apart from the stretch of the river that is conserved, the ripple effect of the conservation will extend far beyond the one mile stretch, since it is not possible to moderate the migration of fishes in the river. it is also reasonable to conclude that no unsustainable fishing method will be in use in the river, for example no one will dare use chemical to kill fish as the pollution effect may travel as far as the river stretches. the materials used in catching fish in itself is sustainable; they are traditional nets and gourds that do not easily bring about degradation of the fish resources. in the same vein the materials are climate change compliant, because they do not undergo rigorous manufacturing process that can bring about carbon emission. the water of the river is also conserved because any human activities that can bring about pollution which may eventually affect the availability of fish is prohibited. 9. what is the place of festivals in biodiversity conservation presently? effort geared towards biodiversity conservation in nigeria has not fully tapped in to the potent power of festival in biodiversity conservation strategy.this is borne out of the fact that african adherents of the modern religion especially christians and muslims associate traditional festivals with idolatry and hence hold it in contempt. governments and non-governmental organisations do not mainstream festivals in their quest to find solution to the resource depletion facing african biodiversity. the “elites” in the african society disparage traditional festivals which they see as the exclusive preserve of the not too educated in western education in the society hence the dwindling fame of traditional festivals in the continent. 10. way forward the quest for conserving biodiversity for sustainable development requires the integration of traditional festivals in sustainable resources management framework. traditional festivals of conservation implication need to be given official recognition by state and local governments. there should be a synergy between the ministries of culture and environment to give a boost to these festivals and should be allocated fund in their budgets. non-governmental organisations must mobilise all stakeholders in awareness creation on the import of festivals in biodiversity conservation. local governments should liaise with traditional rulers who are the custodians of traditional festivals to identify festivals that are resources focused and how resource conservation can be mainstreamed into other festivals. national biodiversity strategy and action plans in nigeria should mainstream festivals as part of its strategies. modern religion festivals that are conservation related should be given a boost by all stakeholders. all the major religions have resource conservation inherent in them; this should be harnessed mutually in the resource management framework. copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 37 instead of condemning one another. government functionaries, traditional leaders and religious leaders should operate synergiously to tap the invaluable role festival plays in resource management. christians and muslims should be made to acknowledge the fact that there are festivals and injunctions in their faith that is conservation specific. for instance the year of jubilee stipulates that when the israelites cultivate a land for six years the seventh year is the year of jubilee when the land should be allowed to rest, in the same vein they were instructed that when a city is attacked they can destroy everything but fruit trees should not be cut. islam has variously injunctions concerning sustainable use of water. muslims have a tradition of planting trees in their burial grounds and it forbidden for anyone to use any part of the tress for any purpose, hence it implies that human activities is not allowed in the burial grounds. there are communities that may not have festivals that are directly related to biodiversity conservation, festivals that are directly linked with resource conservation should be replicated in communities where they do not exist. conservation related festivals should be modernized with lectures environmental advocacy and media adequately harnessed to boost them. modern information communication technology should be fully harnessed in publicizing these festivals so that by this they can be popularized. these festivals when uploaded in youtube, instagram, facebook and other social media will attract more recognition and support. references asogwa b c, umeh j c and okwoche v a (2012a) the sociological and cultural significance of argungun international fishing festival in nigeria. international journal humanities and social sciences 2(11):243-249 asogwa b c, umeh j c and okwoche v a (2012b) community fishing and the economics of argungun fishing festival in nigeria. asian journal business management 4(2):192-199 convention on biological diversity (2012) text on the convention on biological diversity. retrieved on january 5 2012 from www.cbd.int/convention.text ezenagu n and olatunji t (2014) harnessing awka traditional festival for tourism promotion global journal of arts humanities and social sciences .2 (5) pp: 43-56, june 2014 federal republic of nigeria (2010) forth national biodiversity report. abuja, federal government press. kakabe y n (2000) foreword in pirot j y,meynell p j and elder d (eds) (2000) ecosystem management: lessons from around the world, switzerland, iucn. mathias b a (2014) socio-religious significance of ikoro and ekpe festivals in akwete ndoki community of abia state, nigeria international journal of social science and humanity, 4, (5), september 2014 negi c. s. (2010) traditional culture and biodiversity conservation: examples from uttakharan, central himalaya. international mountain society. nwosu p u (2010) the role of okonko society in preserving igbo environment. journal of human ecology, 31(1): 59-64 pirot j y, meynell p j and elder d (eds) (2000) ecosystem management: lessons from around the world, switzerland, iucn. sinclair f l and walker d h, (1999) a utilitarian approach to the incorporation of local knowledge in agro-forestry research and extension in: buck l e, lassole j p, femandes e c m (eds) agro-forestry in sustainable agricultural system boca raton, f l: crc press pp 245-276, soola e o (2009) communication and educational approaches and strategies for forest management: implications for africa. european journal of social sciences. 9(3), 2009 unesco (2005) osun-osogbo sacred grove, unesco world heritage centre. retrieved on january 4 2012 from whc,unesco.org>culture>world heritage centre walker, d h; sinclair f l; joshi l; ambrose b(1997) prospect for the use of corporate knowledge bases in the generation, management and communication of knowledge at a frontline agricultural research centre. agricultural systems 54(3):291-312 copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. this is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). american economic & social review; vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 published by centre for research on islamic banking & finance and business, usa 71 buhari’s administration and review of nigeria’s foreign policy: a realist approach yusuf ibrahim gamawa1 1department of political science, bauchi state university, gadau, nigeria correspondence: yusuf ibrahim gamawa1,department of political science, bauchi state university, gadau, nigeria, email: yusufgamawa@ymail.com received: january 26, 2018 accepted: february 29, 2018 online published: april 4, 2018 abstract there is no doubt that nigeria‟s foreign policy is indeed outdated. this is evidenced in the fact that we now live in different times. though nigeria‟s role in africa still remains significant, however, the time “africa” was made the centre piece of nigeria‟s foreign policy, was a time when many countries in the continent were struggling to throw off the yolk of colonialism. and the adoption of such a policy was to stand in solidarity with those nations that were struggling to achieve or gain independence. and today, no single country in the continent is under foreign rule or direct control, and the times now call for a review of nigeria‟s foreign policy to reflect the nations current circumstances and realities among the committee of states across the globe. and there is no time than under the present administration of president muhammadu buhari. the buhari administration must look critically and make an assessment of how and which way to direct nigeria‟s foreign policy. the responsibility appears to be binding on president buhari‟s administration having been neglected or not given the required attention by many previous regimes and administrations. the confidence of nigerians in president buhari‟s vision, promises and commitment to change and general progress/ greatness of nigeria seems to justify such expectations in the area of foreign relations and policy. there is need for nigeria to be more involved in world affairs and to seek observer status in certain supranational institutions including the e.u, nato and the sco (shanghai cooperation organisation) in this era of globalisation, and the accompanying system of interdependence. this paper tries to provide a guide with regards to the review of the foreign policy of nigeria by president buhari to reflect the realities and challenges of the times in which we are living. the paper argues that nigeria must be a global player despite being a regional power in consideration of its pottentials and position in the scheme of things, drawing lessons based on realist theories in international affairs and conduct as well as the experiences of certain states like japan as models for foreign policy development. keywords: realism, nigeria, africa, global, foreign policy, review. 1.introduction the debate about nigeria‟s foreign policy has been going on for quite sometime now, and many have argued that there is need to review nigeria‟s foreign policy. this is despite the fact that many differed in their various reasons for nigeria to review its foreign policy. while many find it unbelievable that nigeria could have a cohesive and unified foreign policy as a result of internal issues, others see the possibility of fashioning out a new policy direction as almost impossible. infact many scholars and observers of international politics and theorists have since dismissed the applicability of international relations theories by african or third world states mainly because of internal problems. however, such an opinion appears to be changing or has changed over time, especially in the case of nigeria, a country that emerged as a giant in the african continent overtime due to its resources and population. a quick overview of how the foreign policy of nigeria has faired since independence will reveal the need for the nation to take another look at its policy not only within africa but across the globe. as the first part of this article www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 72 will show, nigeria has achieved the aims and objectives of its african centred policy of hegemony or leadership of the continent. and if this is correct, then the country must look again and see what remains to be achived outside the continent or what it stands to benefit or achieve using its position as the leader of the african continent on the global front. this will especially appear very clearly if we are analysing international affairs using various proven ir theories. if for instance neo-realism is adopted to analyse the situation based on the distribution of power and ranking of states, it will appear clearly that nigeria would count among important states in the world stage. however, despite such position the country remains partly involved in the scheme of things at the global level and has remained pre-occupied with local politics in the continent. nigeria has not been able to realign its policies and interests along with the changes and opportunities brought about by globalisation. it would appear that the country has not tapped and utilised the opportunity to fully participate in the globalisation process using its position in the african continent. it is for this reason that this paper tried to contribute to the debate on foreign policy, especially given the new opportunities in the international system under the present administration of president buhari which appears to be redeeming the image and integrity of the country among other respected countries and the confidence they have shown on president buhari. it appears that president buhari has the special opportunity of reviewing and utilising the nations pottentials and opportunities, using such confidence and nigeria‟s position in international affairs as a leader on the african continent. the paper is divided into three parts. the first part takes a look at the development of nigeria‟s foreign policy, and the second part tried to look at nigeria‟s assumed policy under president buhari and is titled “realism theory and nigeria‟s new global role under president muhammadu buhari”. the second part tries to justify the need for nigeria to review its foreign policy and diversify its interest using realism theory to support such a position. and the third part takes a look at the japanese realism model of response and the applicability of ir theories in international affairs by african or third world nations, including nigeria and is titled “japan‟s realism model, ir theory and the third world nations”. a short conclusion is provided at the end. 2.nigeria‟s foreign policy development since independence in 1960 the goal and objectives that nigeria‟s foreign policy were designed to achieve have not changed. these objectives and goal as outlined and identified to include; the protection of the territorial integrity of the nigerian state; the promotion of economic and social well being of nigerians; the enhancement of nigeria‟s image and status in the world at large; the promotion fo unity as well as the total political, economic, social and cultural liberation of nigeria and africa; the promotion of the rights of the black people and others under colonial domination; the promotion of international cooperation, conduicive to the consolidation of world peace and security; mutual respect and friendship among all peoples among states; redressing the imbalance in the international power structures that has tended to frustrate the legitimate aspirations of developing countries; the promotion of world peace based on the principles of freedom, mutual respect and equality of all persons of the world [ade-ibijola, aderemi opeyemi, 2013]. these were outlined since independence to define the country‟s foreign policy and appeared to have guided and provided a parameter within which various administrations conducted or carried out the nation‟s foreign policy and relations. although it is known that some administrations laid emphasis and focus on some of these objectives. the focus and emphasis on some of these objectives by different administrations is sometimes explained by the circumstances and the enviroment within which these administrations have found themselves. some of the administration had to adjust to what was happening around them, at the domestic, sub-regional, regional and at the global levels too. it was the regime of murtala since independence that first set up a committee known as the adedeji committee to examine nigeria‟s foreign. it was based on the report of the commitee that in june 1976 obasanjo identified nigeria‟s foreign policy to include; the defense of sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity; the creation of necessary political and economic conditions in africa and the rest of the world which will facilitate the defense of the independence and territorial integrity of all african countries while at the same time fostering national self reliance and rapid economic development; the promotion of equality and self reliance in africa and the rest of the developing world; the promotion and defense of justice and respect for human dignity, especially the dignity of the black man; and the defense and promotion of world peace [adefore, 1979, chubundu, 2002, gamabari, 1975]. nigeria‟s foreign policy it should be noted has faced alot of criticism by scholars for lacking any specific ideology that is nigerian. the foreign policy and objectives adopted at independence were explained by scholars as vague and abstract. however, the emergence of such foreign policy objectives at independence were as a result of what was called a contrived federal balance between three ethnically and politically divided federal states. explaining that the political rivalry and tensions between the three regions in nigeria at independence prevented the evolution of any specific nigerian ideology as well as the emergence of any charismatic national leader who could be identified as the voice of nigeria. the characteristic conservatism of the foreign policy of nigeria at independence was interpreted as weakness or lack of sovereignty. the evolution of the foreign policy came to be associated with the www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 73 uncertainty of nigeria‟s political leadership‟s domestic political hold. to formulate a policy, the leadership was faced with problems of internal disunity and an unstable federal political balance. and to create a foreign policy, it became necessary to bridge the gap between internal disunity and the wider notion of „nigerianism‟. and in the absence of any characteric or cohesive nationalism, the political leadership tried to project nigeria‟s foreign policy objectives into a wider pan-africanist framework [sinclair, 1983]. according to sinclair “an african conciousness, far stronger than any nigerian conciousness had been the motivating factor of the pre-independence nationalist movements and had a huge influence on the political leaderships socio-political experience”. michael sinclair in his article states categorically that “the inability of the political leadership at independence to draw upon any national value hierachy or objective in the formulation of an international role which would enjoy the united support of the nigerian nation, led to the adoption of a more abstract, and less domestically sensitive, continental whole inevitable”. sinclair‟s article appears to have taken a look at nigeria‟s foreign policy from its very roots and given explanation to how the pan-africanist ideology adopted was managed by succeeding administrations after that of balewa, including those of gowon, murtala and shagari. he interpreted the vagueness of the foreign policy statements of nigeria‟s political leaders as unspecific, and not different from objectives of the entire african continent. the foreign policy objectives according to him did not try to show nigeria‟s aspired role in the international arena which is centred on the “pursuit of national interest”, which is often reffered repeatedly as the sole parameter of nigeria‟s foreign relation, but which painfully remained largely undefined and intangible. the failure or inability of nigeria‟s political leadership‟s perception of the country‟s predestined leadership in africa and its perception of the external enviroment is due mainly to internal or domestic instability as observed by sinclair. he also looked at the vagueness and abstract nature of the foreign policy objectives of nigeria as an attempt to transpose the inherent conservative objectives of the nigerian nationalists like sovereignty, self reliance and equality to the wider african and global level and by so doing formalize the image perceived by nigeria‟s political leaders as being rightfully nigerian, but which lacked the ideological wherewithal to be reinforced. however, on a much higher level, sinclair argued that nigeria‟s leadership elite perceived their foreign policy options to be limited by a degree of historical determinism, which appeared to have dictated a strong economic and psychological commitment to britain and by extention the west. and that such commitment did not give any room for any doctrinaire devotion to non alignment in cold war period by nigeria. secondly, sinclair argued that at independence, nigeria found itself “curiously isolated in west african regional terms”, so long as ghana under kwame nkrumah was politically opposed to nigerian and was in collussion with opposition political factions within nigeria. nigeria as a result of its conservative alliance was seen to have been ideologically opposed to nkrumah. and within africa at that time nkrumah of ghana, sekou toure of guinea and modibbo keita of mali had due to rhetoric of transingence, effectively usurped the political leadership in africa and by implication constrained nigeria in its foreign policy options. again nigeria is seen to be sorrounded by francophone states and perceived this as a threat to its leadership role in the continent. especially given the fact that the francophone states had formed a very strong bloc in their relations with france, and coupled with the ambition of france to create an independent role in africa free from british or american influence. such ambition appeared to have triggered a kind antagonism between the different spheres of influence in africa.two foreign policy imperatives came to be identified for the post independence nigerian leadership. one was that there was a need to exert nigerian independence and maintain some credibility with the leadership of the emergent african states. two, there was the need to focus the national objective on an issue which would unite the support of all nigerians and provide a distraction from the domestic rivalry in a singular national purpose and commitment. and that issues of south africa and apartheid appeared to have created a focus for many african states to unleash their diplomacy inorder to come to terms with their domestic and international problems in the post colonial period. the issues appeared to have helped structure the african continental value hierachy, as well as continetal objective and also internationalise the african condition. the apartheid issue was perceived as a threat in the entire continent, but at the same time provided an opportunity for nigeria to fulfil one of its fundamental foreign objectives of international role. it was observed that through the process of diplomacy over several years, nigeria‟s foreign policy has evolved from the abstract and vague to the assertive and specific. and since independencenigeria‟s foreign policy imperatives remain the same, though gone through little peripheral changes. these changes are only seen in terms of economic and military capabilities, but the basic imperatives remain largely unchanged. two imperatives came to be identified; first, is the need to manifest and maintain domestic political stability and national unity, and two, the need to exert its “predestined” leadership role in africa, in accordance with the pan-africanist sentiment and objectives. nigeria is seen to have tried to create a perceptional image of national unity that concurrently shields the domestic stability from external demands and maximises the country‟s importance in african affairs and by implication world affairs according michael sinclair. www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 74 3.realism theory and nigeria‟s new global role under president muhammadu buhari the desire to protect national integrity is what directs a nation‟s foreign policy which is also explained as “the face a nation wears to the world” [keneth pyle, 2008]. i̇t was alsoobserved that states acquire different styles of being and behaving that persist through time, producing traits or what montesque called “the spirit of a nation” that crucially influences a nations international behavior [raymond aron, 1966]. foreign policy has since time immemorial remained an important aspect of statecraft and has often taken the lead in directing the conduct and affairs of states. even before the treaty of westphalia that saw the emergence of modern nation states under the principle of “sovereignty”, many principalities in europe, america as well as certain kingdoms and empires in africa and other parts of the world have pursued foreign policy in their relations with other principalities, kingdoms or empires. foreign policy or diplomacy it appears is inherent in the basic idea of the existence of distinct communities and in human nature as observed by “classical realism” scholars. and even in those days power has always been a decisive factor in how certain kingdoms, principalities or empires conducted diplomacy or foreign relation between themselves. security has often been an important consideration when it comes to foreign policy or relations between different communities, nations or empires. this leads to the arguments in recent times on offensive and defensive realism and the question of whether states are secuirty maximisers or power maximisers [j.mearsheimer, 2001, 2006]. most at times security is jeopardised as a result of conflicts related to economic activities or just the pursuit of power by the different entities existing at any particular time. as observed by scholars, the international system even in the ancient period is characterised by anarchy, and there were no rules and no restrictions with regards to how states or empires should conduct their relations with each other, and powerful states sometimes are seen to usurp or invade other states for simple or no reasons at all. and today the issue of foreign policy cannot be relegated to the background if in days past it constituted an important aspect of statecraft. nation states have had to conduct their relations with other states with caution, careful and calculated policies. it is for this reason that many scholars at different times emerged to offer advises as to how states should carry out their affairs without risking the security and prosperity of their respective states. and in this regards students of international politics and observers of the realist school or realism theory which is also known as “timeless wisdom” will immediately bring to mind the names thucydides [c.460-406 bc] and niccolo machiaveli [1532], as well as morgenthau [1948] in recent times. if african states had during the time of colonial rule pursued a policy that was centred on the independence of the entire continent, it must be understood that they have now achieved sovereignty and have become state actors in the international system pursuing independent interests. and these african states are still playing different roles at the regional and sub-regional levels through the au, ecowas e.t.c. and again if all states in africa have achieved statehood, and statism is considered as the unit of analysis in the international system and states are considered the main actors; it then goes to show that despite the solidarity existing among african states, the various states may have differed in their pursuits of interests in different places, and at the same time these states differ in their history, sizes, strength and resources, and as a result may have different goals and objectives as states and may for this reason differ in their approaches with regards to foreign policy or relations. it may have been justified at the time nigeria adopted africa as the center piece of its foreign policy even based on what is known as the theory of harmony of interests, and even now. harmony of interest tends to suggest for instance that by promoting the interest of other african states, nigeria is also promoting its interest and prosperity at the same time [www.importanceofphilosophy.com/ethics_harmonyofinterest]. and even now nigeria must continue to play considerable role in the regional and sub-regional integration processes that are taking place. but that nigeria as a state, must have a foreign policy that is independent of the interest of other african states even if such a policy will likely promote the interest of fellow african states indirectly. it is worthy to note that integration is taking place on two different levels, at the global level and the regional level. cooperation is therefore taking place at the two levels simultaneously, and that the interests of nations may differ at the global level. also it must be understood that the interests and aspirations of states differ from one another and is determined by a number of factors including history, economy and culture which are not the same. integration itself appears to have led to the creation of many supranational institutions across globe which it is argued appeared to have usurped the powers of nations states. though other scholars argue that certain decisions taken by these institutions were the outcome of the decisions and negotiations of nation states and therefore see such institutions as controlled by nation states. however, there is no denying the fact that supranational institutions exercise great influence in international affairs and some have to an extent limited or hindered the process of globalisation, especially when we are looking at regional supranational institutions. this limitation can be a plus or a minus depending on nations states and their various interests and aspirations. it is for this reason that it is deemed necessary for nigeria as a country to review its foreign policy by diversifying its interest within this globalising world. africa is the continent of the future according researches conducted and considering nigeria‟s position in africa, its size, population and resources, it appears to have been positioned www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 75 properly for a greater role far beyond the african continent though relying on its strength in africa. since the end of the cold war, the international system appeared to have undergone a serious transformation and has seen the emergence of new threats to peace and stability in different parts of the world. the rise of trans-national groups has led to new responses to problems such as terrorism and other forms of violence that need the cooperation and assistance of states beyond the shores of africa. and in consideration of these changes, nigeria as a big player in the african continent must get more involved in world affairs and widen its interest and propects in world politics to be able to ensure its security and progress among other nations. to restrict nigeria‟s role in supranational institutions only to a regional level is deny the nation the opportunity to achieve security, growth and progress and to deny the nation a place in global affairs, commensurate to its standing and position on the african continent as a power. nigeria must seek observer status in cetain supranational security and economic cooperation organisations such as the e.u, nato, sco (shanghai cooperation organisation) among other important and influential supranational institutions in the world today if only the nation is to realise and take its place and position in world affairs. the pursuit of such aims is justified by the rules and objectives of international conduct which are identified in terms of security, economic development and general progress of the nigerian state. for instance nigeria‟s relations with the eec predates the gowon era and even during the gowin era, nigeria had led a meeting of african, carribean and pacific island states (acp) in 1973 with a view to forge a common front in their relations with the eec. the meetings led to the signing of the “lome convention”. the objective of the convention at that time was to promote trade between the contracting parties, cognizance of their respective level of development and the need to gain more benefits and improve the condition of access of their products to the eec market. the eec was reported to have guaranteed access for a wide range of products, about 96% of acp products in return for most favoured treatment in eec trade with acp states [martins nijhoff, 1976]. this shows nigeria‟s position visa viz europe and africa and showing established connections already exist and can be built upon. it is also worthy to note that the relations of certain nations and even turkey‟s eu bid though aided by geography initially started with the eec after the signing of some protocols in 1950‟s. there is no better time to review the nations foreign policy than now, under the administration of president muhammadu buhari. the new administration has come into power with alot of goodwill within and outside nigeria, with a reputation for integrity which appears to have gradually started redeeming the image and dignity of nigeria as eveidenced in the recent trips and interactions of president buhari and other world powers. the invitation of president buhari to attend the g-7 summit in germany even before he was sworn in as president is a pointer to the confidence that the group of the world‟s most powerful states have on the person of president muhammadu buhari. this was followed by an invitation by the u.s. president barrack obama in july shortly after president buhari was sworn into office [the guardian, 2015]. there seems to be an opportunity hanging somewhere to be utilised in the conduct of nigeria‟s foreign relations at this time, such opportunity is waiting to be discovered. writing in his famous and celebrated book “the prince”, niccollo machiavelli observes that “the ultimate skill of a state leader is to accept and adapt to the changing power-political configurations in world politics”. and again „raison d‟etat‟ or reason of state as agreed by classical realists is the most fundamental principle of international conduct [machiavelli, 1961]. the renowned historian friedrich meinecke described it as a state‟s first law of motion. according to the realists, „raison d‟etat‟ tells the statesman what he must do to preseve the health and strength of the state. meinecke the historian and realist insists that since the state has been identified as the main actor in international politics, it must pursue power, and that it is the duty of the statesman to calculate rationally and take adequate steps to perpetuate the life of the state. the realist theorists agree that the life of any state can never be guaranteed due to the simple fact that the use of force in the form of warfare is a legitimate instrument of statecraft. the international enviroment is identified as a lawless arena and that power remains the decisive factor with regards to international politics. it is for this reason that realists disagree that morals and ethics plays a role in international politics. among many realist thinkers, machiavelli is known for notoriously warning state leaders against adhering to traditional morality in international politics, adding that political “necessity and prudence” should guide the conduct of states in international affairs. proponents of raison d‟etat are seen to advocate two moral standards for states; one for citizens within the state and another standard different in its external relations with other states [meinecke, 1957]. as a matter of fact, it is not only classical realists that view power as decisive factor in international politics, but that a careful examination of “structural realism” will show the importance of power in international politics and will further justify the fact that nigeria must seek more relevance and power among other states. structural realist conclude that international politics is essentially a struggle for power, which they often attribute to security competion and inter-state conflict due to lack of authority above states and the distribution of power in the international system. structural realism came to be commonly associated with “waltz theory of international politics”. in his theory, waltz defined the structure of the international system in terms of three main elements www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 76 organising principle, differentiation of units, and distribution of capabilities. according to waltz‟s theory, unit level variation does not have any relevance when explaining international outcomes. waltz points out clearly that of the three elements, the distribution of capabilities across units is of fundamental importance. structural realists maintain that the distribution of power in the international system is the key independent variable to understanding important international outcomes, including alliance politics and balance of power. structural realists generally try to provide a ranking or ordering of states so that they can be able to differentiate and count the number of great powers that exist at any particular point in time. according to the structural realists, it is the number of great powers that in turn determines the structure of the international system. waltz it is worthy to mention was quoted in a passage saying “because power is a possibly useful means, sensible statesmen try to have an appropriate amount of it” [waltz, 1979]. this is the time for nigeria to take a step into the world. however, several challenges appear to have hindered or may hinder nigeria‟s path to a successful and proactive foreign policy. these challenges are mostly related to domestic issues, nationalism and issues of identity continue to remain an issue in the politics of nigeria. foreign policy appears more effective when nationalism at the domestic level is active. national unity and economic development are necessary ingredients for a successful foreign policy as seen in japanese history since the ancient period. the domestic challenges facing nigeria have not been absent in the lives of certain nations that now stand as powers in the international system. national character sometimes develops over a long period of time, and is most at times determined by a nations history, experience and geography. so the fact that these challenges exist does not in any way mean that nigeria‟s foreign policy should not be reviewed and that nigeria‟s role in the international system should not be re-examined. sometimes the awakening of national councioussness is determined by the policies and actions of the leaders of nation states and nigeria is no exception to this pattern of growth and awareness. the growth and development of many nation states is often seen as the result of the actions and inaction of their leaders from generation to generation. 4.japan‟s realism model, ir theory and the third world nations a careful look at japan‟s history and foreign policy that is likely to guide nigeria in its foreign relation is that japan‟s international behavior has been marked by pragmatic and often opportunistic pursuit of power. japan has never been motivated by utopian visions of the future or universal ideals as shown in keneth pyle‟s book titled “japan rising: the resurgence of japanese power and purpose” in the chapter captioned “japan‟s national style”. akira ariye was quoted in this book saying “japan‟s foreign policy has been pragmatic and opportunistic and described it as a foreign policy without ideological principles” [keneth pyle, 2008]. the only ideology of the japanese state as shown in the book was “devotion to the power of the state”. it will appear important to draw a parallel with nigeria‟s foreign policy here. michael sinclair had in his article titled “an analysis of nigerian foreign policy: the evolution of political paranoia” argued that at independence nigeria‟s foreign policy was vague and unspecific, but was created not based on a nigerian ideology but on wider notion of african consciousness. the foreign policy was marked by the inability of the political elites to draw upon any national objective or hierachy value in the formulation of an international role which could enjoy the support of the nigerian nation. although in the same article sinclair did confess that the african centred policy did pay off and that nigeria‟s foreign policy due to the apartheid struggles became specific and clear. and “ domestic stability and leadership of africa” came to be identified as its main national objective after several years of vague foreign policy. nigeria appears to have achieved its foreign policy objective of leadership in the african continent but has not been able to move beyond that to a higher objective. japan did not limit its foreign policy objective to regional hegemony alone, but rather devoted all its effort to amass more and more power, and always tried to measure its standing alongside other powers. japan‟s international behavior is seen to have been shaped by six principles and will be presented so that it may provide some lesson on foreign policy and national development for nigeria as a country. these six principles or patterns are agreed to be products of history that appeared to have forced the japanese to adopt a realist approach in its foreign relations. the first pattern of japanese response to structural changes in the international system is “attentiveness to power”. despite the fact that it well known that the pursuit of power is universal in international politics, japan‟s pursuit of power in the past 150 has been seriously determined and consistent, japan was described as striking in its fundamental realism, its respect for power distribution and for the sources of power in the international system. japan was ready to adapt its policies and institutions in order to accomodate itself to the conditions of the external world. another pattern is “pragmatism and weakness of transcendent and universal ideal”. this pattern is explaining japan‟s pragmatic and opportunistic pursuit of power. another is “adaptation and accomodation”. japan‟s sensitivity to balance of power explains its behavior in terms of accomodation and adaptation, in order to off set vulnerability and insecurity. the adaptive policy makes it possible to revise domestic policies to suit the external enviroment. the japanese in their realism sought to be guided by the direction of flow of events or what they called “the trend of the times” and act in accordance-seeking not to change it, but rather to move with it in ways that would www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 77 be of advantage to the japanese state. the japanese are said to gauge their leaders based on their capability to gauge the trend of the times and to react to opportunities that present themselves. again “autonomy and regional hegemony” is among patterns of behavior observed in the japanese response. this was in response to the infringememnt of japan‟s sovereignty at a point in its history. to escape dependence on foreigners, the meiji leaders stressed that self reliance was essential because japan was sorrounded by predatory imperial powers. however, this did not prevent alliances, which the japanese viewed as marriages of convinience that would eventually pave the way for autonomy. among other patterns observed also is “emmulation and innovation”. japan is well known for its tradition of cultural borrowing. the japanese are described to have an extra ordinary degree of openness for borrowing in their culture. the first great period of borrowing from china cited by the meiji leaders has been called the most systematic effort in world history before modern times of a less developed society to learn from a more developed one. the meiji leaders were also quick to turn to the west in selecting from a variety of national models, institutions best suited to bring japanese power into the modern era. japan‟s leaders were seen to have gone to an extra ordinary length to emulate the successful institutions of the western world. japan is said to have remained isolated for several years until the seventh century after the rise of china. it was the glory of china that led the japanese to try to create in japan a replica of china. and the last of these behavior pattern of japan is “rank and honor”. japan‟s leaders recognised the importance of status and prestige in their understanding of the international system. japan brought to its participation in the international society a highly developed and elaborate culture of honor. throughout its modern history, japan has measured its standing against other powers in accordance with modern structural realism. the goals of japan was always to be recognised as a first rank country [keneth pyle, 2008]. the times have changed and it is not impossible for an african country or third world state to apply international relations theories in her relations with the world as many scholars seem to believe. there is evidence atleast that shows that there are exceptions to the categorization of less developed nation‟s ability to adopt such theories in the foreign relations. many scholar appeared to have relied on one of the leading neorealist thinkers kenneth waltz, whose thought on structural realism was examined previously. waltz had been of the opinion that a general theory of international politics is necessarily based on great powers. such an assertion was made by waltz in 1979 after his book “theory of international politics”, and the assertion was not challenged more than thirty years after the book was published. there has always been a kind of consensus among scholars that international relations theories cannot be directly applied to african states. and many reasons were advanced to explain this impossibility, and is usually related to weak institutions, fragility or failed states. sometimes scholars described the continent‟s borders as irrationally created by the colonial powers and this has resulted in the creation or emergence of decentralised states that lacked or failed to develop national identities and have remained internally divided [vallings, moreno-torres, 2005, herbst j, 2000]. neorealists contend that structural imbalances in third world or developing states has made it impossible to use ir theories to explain the behavior of these states. this they argued is due to the fact that the foundational principle of domestic hierachy and anarchy in the intternational system is opposed by third world states. and that what obtains is international hierachy and domestic anarchy. for this reason, different scholars tried to explain the behavior of third world or developing states with some modifications. scholars like robert jackson see these states as an alternative political actors that function in a dissimilar manner with coventional ir theories due lack of domestic authority and national capabilities as against other developed states whose behavior pattern is seen to tally with most ir theories [r.h. jackson, 1990]. mohammed ayoob is seen to suggest or proposed what came to be known as “subaltern realism” for the developing world which is expected to make clear the distinction between domestic and interstate conflict. ayoob tries to see internal conflict as state making thereby advocating the extention of ir theory to the developing world [m.ayoob, 2002]. yet another scholar stephen david was seen to have come up with a theory that focussed on the realist concept of balancing and argues that instead of balancing against foreign threats, the leaders of developing states should balance against internal challengers [a. vinci, 2008]. in an article titled “ir theory as politics, international politics as theory: a nigerian case study” by emıly meierding at the university of chicago, the assertion of these scholars was dismissed for lack of merit. emily argued in her article that a generalised analysis of the situation of all developing states bahavior pattern cannot stand, and that the states differ in their behavior and capabilities, hence argued that there are exceptions to such generalised explanations. emily provides the case of nigeria as an example, describing nigeria‟s behavior as convergent with that of the traditional great powers despite internal disunity and division. emily notes that since independence nigeria has possesed a competent foreign affairs apparatus which has remained under the exclusive control of the ruling central authority. this according to emily is inspite of many irregular government and regime transitions. nigeria according to emily posseses a rationalist view of the international system and that the capability of nigeria‟s foreign policy and those of the most developed and consolidated nations differs only quantitatively but not qualitatively. emily was of the opinion that if main stream ir www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 78 theories are useful approximations of reality “we should expect them to have explanatory value in the case of nigeria”[ emily, 2010]. emily was of the opinion that even neorealism, which is the most critical of third world as regards ir theories will be relevant to nigeria‟s international relation,especially given nigeria‟s sub-regional power status. emily noted in her article that local hegemons have attracted little attention or recognition within ir theory and that their international positions and foreign policy preferences make them analytically different from traditional middle powers like canada or sweden. nigeria it was noted in emily‟s article categorized by eduard jordan as emerging middle powers, along with south africa and brazil. these states irrespective of whatever categorization or label, are seen to have become prominent international actors, initially involved in economic matters, increasingly in poitical negotiations on issues of climate and change. and more recently nigeria and states like turkey came to be identified and labelled as the “mint states” as a result of the rapid economic/political development of the two states [bbc, 2014]. it is clear that ir theories do really apply to nigeria‟s international behavior, its foreign policy and interactions in the international system. despite nigeria‟s domestic challenges, its foreign policy principles of seeking continental dominance and hegemony has given the nation a position in world politics, and has given the nation a role similar to those of the “great powers” but within africa. and the assertions above appear to converge with the need for nigeria to become more involved in world affairs and aspire to higher status by seeking participation in supranational institutions like eu, nato and sco as an observer. this seems true especially if nigeria‟s trade and economic relations with the eu states on the one hand, the countries of china, india and the asian tigers of malaysia and indonesia is taken into consideration. nigeria has traded with the eu and the u.s. states since independence, in different commodities including oil. in recent times china, india and other asian states have become some of biggest trade partners that nigeria has ever had as country, and nigeria remains the biggest across the african continent. therefore, if trade alone is taken into consideration, nigeria deserves a place in the asian shanghai cooperation organisation as well the european union as an observer or otherwise. such position will provide the nation the needed opportunity to get involved, negotiate and debate trade policies between the african states and nigeria as nation and the eu states and asian states as well and this will ease trade and bilateral relations between the three continents of europe, asia and africa. nigeria has not been deeply involved in the middle east politics, has not shown interest as a either a mediator in iraq or syria, and has not joined the coalition against isis in both iraq and syria, and is as a result not a force to reckon with in the middle east region despite the importance it occupies in world politics. 5.conclusion this paper has indeed shown the necessity for the administration of president muhammadu buhari to review nigeria‟s foreign policy from an african hegemon to a global player. not only did the paper show the necessity to do so but also showed the possibility for such a shift by making clear nigeria‟s eligibility to apply ir theories to its foreign relations based on studies conducted by other scholars that showed the importance of local hegemons especially from structural or neo-realism perspective. many scholars and analysts have tended to look at the applicability of ir theories by third world nations as an impossibility, but recent researches conducted have proved particularly the case of nigeria to be different. again the paper has provided a model and outlined the patterns of japan‟s realist response since the ancient period so as to provide a guide to nigeria‟s leadership with regards to the nation‟s international behavior or conduct. nigeria as the paper has shown stands to prove its mettle and take a chance in the international community in the conduct of its foreign relations considering its pottential as a hegemon and the biggest market in the african continent. the present administration of president buhari as observed in this paper is properly positioned to change the fortunes of nigeria and its relations with the outside world, particularly at the global level, if only it will diversify its interest, act and come up with policies that would utilise the opportunities that exist for the country in the scheme of things in this ever changing globalising world. references ade-ibijola, aderemi opeyemi, (2013). overview of national interest, continuities and flaws in nigeria‟s foreign policy,international journal of academic research in bussiness and social sciences.3(1). adefore.(2008).foreign policy: nigeria’s primary objectives, nigeria today, 9(1). nigeria high commission, london, 1979. anthony vinci, armed groups and balance of power, routledge bbc news, “the mint countries: next economic giants?”,6 january, 2014. chubundu v.n, “foreign policy with particular reference to nigeria: 1961-2002”, spectrum books limited, ibadan, 2002. claire vallings, magui moreno-torres.(2005).drivers of fragility: what makes states fragile?,poverty reduction in difficult environment working papers, april, dinneya g.(2006).political economy of democratisation in nigeria, concept publication limited, lagos. easton d. (1965).a framework for political analysis, prentice hall inc, eaglewoods cliffs, new jersey www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 79 emily meierding.(2010).ir theory as politics, international politics as theory: a nigerian case study, international studies review,15(2). frankel j, “british foreign policy: 1945-1973”, oxford university press, london, 1975. friedrish meinecke.(1957).machiavellianism: the doctorine of raison d‟etat and its place in modern history, trans. douglas scott, new york, gambari i. a.(1975).nıgerıa and the world: a growing internal stability, wealth and external influence”, journal of international affairs, gambari i.a.(1989).theory and reality in foreign policy making : nigeria after the second republic, nj : humanities press international, atlantic highlands herbst j.( 2000).states and power in africa”, princetown university press, princetown holsti k.j.(1998). international relations theory and domestic war in the third world: the limits of relevance, macmillan, hampshire jackson r.h.(1990).quasi states: sovereignty, international relations and the third world. cambridge university press, cambridge keneth pyle.(2008). japan rising: the resurgence of japanese power and purpose, century foundation, mahmud s.(2001).controlling african states behavior: international relations theory and international sanctions, hampshire. martins nijhoff ( 1976).the dynamics of euro-african cooperation: article 2-4 and article 7 (29) of the lome convention”, the haque mearsheimer j.j.(2006).structural realism mearsheimer j.j.(2001). the tragedy of great power politics”, w.w norton and company, new york, michael sinclair.(1983).an analysis of nigerian foreign policy: the evolution of political paranoia”, south african institute of international affairs mohammed ayoob.(2002).inequality and theorising in international relation: the case of subaltern realism, international studies review, 4(3) morgenthau h.j.(1997).polıtıcs among nations: the struggle for power and peace (fourth ed), alfred a. knopf, new york. neuman s.g.(1998).international relations theory and the third world”, macmillan, hampshire niccolo machiavelli.(1961).the prince, penguin. ogunbadejo o,(1979/80). nigeria‟s foreign policy under military rule, 1966-1979, international journal, 35 okolo j.e. (1988). morality and realism in nigerian foreign policy.world affairs,150 raymond aron.(1966).peace and war : a theory of international relations the guardian.(2015).obama meets new nigerian president with praise for anti-extremist agenda. waltz k. (1979).theory of international politics.mcgraw hill, new york. wright s.(1983).nigerian foreign policy: a case of dominance or dependence, macmillan, london. copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. this is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr american economic & social review; vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 research article published by centre for research on islamic banking & finance and business, usa 10 determinant of private sector credit and its implication on economic growth in nigeria: 2000-2017 olorunmade gbenga department of banking and finance faculty of management science, kogi state university, p.m.b 1008, anyigba, kogi state, nigeria e-mail:gbenga4455@gmail.com samuel olusegun james department of banking and finance faculty of management science, kogi state university, p.m.b 1008, anyigba, kogi state, nigeria e-mail: olusegunjms@gmail.com adewole joseph adeyinka department of banking and finance faculty of management and social sciences adekunle ajasin university p.m.b 001, akungba akoko, ondo state, nigeria e-mail: princeadeyinkaadewolej@gmail.com abstract the study examined the determinant of private sector credit and its implication on economic growth in nigeria. the fluctuation in the supply of money and credit is the basic causal factor at work in cyclical process; when money supply falls, prices decrease, profit decrease, production activities become sluggish and production falls and when money supply expands, price rise, profit increase and the total output increases and finally growth takes place. the main objective of this study is to examine the relationship between private sector credit and gross domestic product. data were obtained from central bank of nigeria statistical bulletin. simple regression analysis was used to achieve the stated objective. it was revealed in the determinant of credit supply equation 1 that there was significant relationship between total credits to private sector and money supply in nigeria. it was also discovered in the private sector credit and economic growth equation 2 that there was significant relationship between private sector credit and economic growth in nigeria. the study therefore recommends that there should be persistence increase of money supply to nigerian economy in order to increase the flow of credit to the real sector of the nigerian economy, financial institutions should distribute more credit to the real sector for productive purposes in order to increase gross domestic product. keywords: private sector credit, money supply, economic growth, gross domestic product, credit supply. 1. introduction the debate on the role of finance in economic development has been an ongoing one, especially in developing countries. this dates back to the work of the likes of schumpeter, (1911) who advocated the concept of finance-led growth. the financial intermediation role is generally performed by the financial sector, which channels savings into productive investment. deposit-taking institutions in particular are well recognized for performing the crucial role of sourcing finance to support private sector consumption and investment in nigeria. credit to private sector refers to financial resources provided to the private sector, such as loans and advances, purchases of non-equity securities, trade credits and other accounts receivable, which establish a claim for repayment. in this regard, credit can be viewed from two angles; namely: trade or commercial credit and banking system credit. freear (1980), says copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 11 trade credit refers to transactions which involve the supplier handing over goods or performing a service without receiving immediate payment and payment to be made in the future. several empirical studies have shown that the efficient provisioning of credit has a positive and significant effect on output and employment opportunities while a low level of financial development and its attendant inefficient private sector credit system distorts economic growth. a strong and inclusive financial system; and availability of investable funds play vital roles in financing economic project and activities that would promote economic growth and development. this is because access to credit enhances the productive capacity of firms and enhances their potential to grow. in recent years, private sector credit and economic growth linkage has been a major issue in economic discourse all around the world and empirical literature has been inconclusive on this issue. however, balance of evidence seems to favour a positive relationship between private sector credit and economic growth. this belief has led the nigerian government through the central bank of nigeria to continue to build a robust and inclusive financial system to fast track economic growth and to serve as a growth catalyst to other emerging economies in africa. economic growth has long been considered an important goal of economic policy with a substantial body of research attempting to explain how this goal can be achieved. most of the empirical studies have focused on explanatory variables selected on the basis of their relevance to policy formulation or base on their theoretical relevance. however, banks play very important roles in the economic development and growth of any nation. as an important component of the financial system, they channel scarce resources from the surplus economic units to the deficit economic units in an economy (granting credit) as such this activities form part of their existence. the loan resources (bank credit) can be in the form of short term credit, medium term credit, long term credit and contingent fund. thus, these bank credits to a reasonable extends, exert reasonable influence on the pattern and trend of economic growth in nigeria. there is a general consensus that for economic growth to take place there should be strong support from the financial sector which provides a source of funds. the role played by finance of bringing together borrowers and lenders cannot be under estimated in the modern society. the important role of financial development in fostering growth and that their association is of a long term is supported by several studies, (cecchetti and kharroubi (2012), osman (2014)). the banking sector attracts deposits which can either lie idle or be used productively. the banking sector changes deposits into assets that are advanced to the private sector. the private sector supports economic growth in the country and the availability of financial assets provides huge mileage to this sector in advancing growth. these resources can be in the form loans, non-equity securities, trade credit and accounts receivables which generate a claim for repayment. the amount of resources available is limited due to the fact that part of it is taken by the government. the advancement of debt to the government has a potential of crowding out debt to the private sector which subsequently affects growth of output. credit to the private sector can have a positive impact on sectoral gdp, (were et al (2012) and iqbal et al (2012)). 2. statement of the problem modern theories of economic growth have attempted to explain the relationship between the private sector credit and economy growth factors and specify the condition under which an economy would steadily grow on the equilibrium path. most economical of the world have experienced business cycles at different stages of their economic growth. the economic history of various economies is in fact a history of ups and downs, booms and slump prosperity and depression. business cycles influence business decisions tremendously and set the trend for future business. the period of prosperity opens up new and longer opportunities for investment, employment and production and thereby promotes business. on the contrary, the period of depression reduces business opportunities. a profit maximizing entrepreneurs must therefore, analyse the economic environment of the period relevant for his important business decision particularly those pertaining to forward planning. according to dwivedi, (2008), business cycle theories lay major emphasis on the monetary and credit system in their analysis of business cycle popularly refers to as monetary theory of business cycle. according to this theory the main cause of business cycle is the fluctuation in monetary and credit market. the fluctuation in the supply of money and credit is the basic causal factor at work in cyclical process. hawtrey in dwivedi, (2008), opens that business cycles are nothing but successive phases of inflation and deflation and all the changes in the level of economic activities are only reflections of changes in money flows. he stated further that when money supply falls, prices decrease, profit decrease, production activities become sluggish and production falls and when money supply expands, price rise, profit increase and the total output increases and finally growth takes place. he concluded that the principal factor affecting the money supply is the credit mechanism i.e. the volume of credit created by the banking and non-banking system. following this assertion that money supply forms the bedrock of business cycle through credit flow into the system; it is imperative to look intently at various factors that would copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 12 determine the volume of credits that goes into the economy at a particular period of time so as to maintain economic stability. 3. objectives of the study the major objective of this study is to examine the relationship between private sector credit and gross domestic product. specific objectives are to:  examine the relationship between credits to private sector and money supply in nigeria.  examine the relationship between gross domestic product and credit to private sector in nigeria. 4. statement of hypotheses  ho: there is no significant relationship between credits to private sector and money supply in nigeria.  ho: there is no significant relationship between gross domestic product and credit to private sector in nigeria. 5. significance of the study there is the need to deepen the financial sector and reposition it for growth and integration into the global financial system in conformity with international best practices. one of the most important policy concerns in most countries is the effect of private sector credit on growth and development. this study is important at this level of economic development when efforts are being made to reposition the financial system to enable it play key roles in economic development of nigeria. the study essentially examined in an empirical manner, the nature of financial deepening in nigeria since 2000 up to 2017 representing era of financial sector reform in nigeria. the study ascertained the critical factors that have affected the level of private sector credit flows in nigeria. this study was justifiable since it employed the crucial methodology analysis used in examining the flows of credit by financial institutions in nigeria. thus, the study followed the work of laffont and garcia (1977) and blundell-wignall and gizycki (1992) which was modified to suite the nigerian case by adeoye (2003) as a result of its distinguishing factors that affect both the demand and supply of banks’ credit to the economy. while most studies conducted on bank credit and growth examined the banks activities up to 2003 (adeoye 2003; oluitan 2003), the periods covered also made the study unique to others. it covered eighteen years ranging from 2000 to 2017 in nigeria. although, the relationship between credit and economy growth has been well documented in both international and domestic literature, this work added to the research by examining the relationships within individual sectors which is a quiet departure from previous studies that focused on aggregate credit growth level. this is equally of value to policy makers since it identified which sectors are most efficient in their use of credit. 6. literature review determinants of credit to private sector financial institutions like banks, pension funds, insurance corporations and foreign exchange companies provide financial resources in the form of loans, trade credit, purchases of non-equity securities and other receivables to the private sector. the total of such monies is expressed as a percentage to gdp to give credit to private sector. empirical work focuses on the effect of different factors on the level of financial resources extended to the private sector. evidence shows that the drivers of credit to private sector can either have a positive or a negative effect. studies that show factors which have a negative influence are several. hofmann, (2001) shows that innovations in short term interest rates have a significant negative effect on bank credit, gross domestic product and property prices. standard demand factors failed to explain the development of credit over the long term. this study showed that the long term negative relationship between credit to private sector and interest rates could only be explained by including property prices in the model. abuka and egesa (2007) argued that government borrowing from banks, a proxy of government debt, crowded out the extension of credit to the private sector within the east african region. this was supported by sogut, (2008) who showed that in the high income countries private sector credit is negatively related to central government debt. the other factors that reduce extension of credit to the private sector include prime lending rate and reserve ratio, enisan and oluwafemi, (2015). this is consistent with a study by sharma and gounder, (2012) which shows that, in a regional grouping, factors which are detrimental to growth in credit to private sector include average lending rates and inflation. pissarides, (2001) provides evidence that one of the major challenges experienced by the private sector is the failure by the local banking sector and the under developed financial markets to respond to the demand for finance. a banking sector that is under capitalized with low liquidity often fails to support the private sector. this is worsened by inadequate legal and regulatory environment and poor effective supervision by the central bank. rashid (2011) also provides evidence that an increase in foreign banks in the financial sector where there is overreliance on nondeposit based funding will lead to less resources being extended to the private sector. this is so because an increase in foreign banks results in less deposits being attracted by local banks and these foreign banks tend to allocate less of their deposits to the private sector. in the end local banks will lend less to the private sector due to a limited deposit copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 13 base. haas and lelyveld (2002) argued that foreign banks can be a source of cross border credit as they supply more financial resources to their subsidiaries especially during crisis periods. thus it may be beneficial to increase the level of financial liberalization in the banking sector to attract more foreign participation by banks to increase credit flows to the private sector. there is strong evidence in literature supporting the existence of positive relationship between private sector credit and factors like economic growth in both the short and long term. studies reviewed from literature shows that the factors that have a positive influence on credit to private sector include broad money supply, cyclical risk premium, stronger economic growth, gdp per capita, democracy, financial deepening, rule of law, liquidity ratio, trade openness, investment profile, socioeconomic factors, financial liberalization and real interest rate, exchange rate, private domestic savings, external debt, (enisan and oluwafemi (2015), touny (2014), raza et al (2014), assefa (2014), anthony (2012), iqbal et al (2012), rachdi and mensi (2012) and frimpong and marbuah (2010)). however touny (2014) also argue that in the long term economic growth does not continue to improve credit extension to the private sector but will instead have a negative impact. a different perspective was brought by atoyebi et al (2012) who argued that growth in private investments are better explained by changes in the political situation. the creation of an enabling environment through provision of infrastructural facilities and security is necessary for the improvement in the extension of credit to the private sector. as such private investment is hindered by macroeconomic instability and political disturbances. there are studies that show that a causal relationship may not exist between credit to private sector and economic growth which shows the existence of a schumpeterian independent hypothesis, (osman (2014) and nezakati et al (2011) and aliero et al (2013)). sogut (2008) showed that in the high income countries private sector credit is positively related with journal of poverty, investment and development of public sector debt, which is in contradiction to other studies. according to shijaku and kalluci (2013) lending incentives are created by having a lower cost of lending, reduced government borrowing and more qualitative bank credit. meaning of credit chester (1920) defines bank credit as credit extended by banks to borrowers. he stressed further that, bankers frequently use the term in the plural, meaning advances made to their borrowing customers. whether the borrower withdraws the amount of the proceeds of his loan in cash at once or leaves it on deposit with the lending bank, the loan in either case constitutes credit extended. just as a merchant extends credit to he who pays for his purchase at a later time, so the banker extends credit to the business man who borrows money. whether the money is taken from the bank at the time the loan is made, the next day, or ten days later, makes no essential difference; bank credit may take even the form of an overdraft. credit has been described as a device for facilitating transfer of purchasing power from one individual or organization to another. as indicated by oyatoya (1983) credit provides the basis for increased production efficiency through specialization of functions thus bringing together in a more productive union the skilled labor force with small financial resources and those who have substantial resources but lack entrepreneurial ability. in general, total domestic bank credit can be sub divided into two: credit to the private sector and credit to the public sector. it has been empirically proved that credit to the public sector is weak in generating growth within the economy because they are prone to waste and politically motivated programmes which may not deliver the best result to the populace while private credit had been observed to be the dynamic instrument of accelerated growth (beck et al 2005; levine 2002; odedokun 1998; king and levine 1993). private sector credit is decomposed into two categories: short-term credit that has contractual maturity of one year or less and long-term credit that has contractual maturity longer than one year. some countries, most notably many of the transition economies, provide more detailed data on credit maturity – up to one year, one to five years and longer than 5 years. some countries report maturity longer than 7 or even 15 years. while it would be interesting to investigate credit with different maturity structures (e.g. medium-term, long-term, and “very longterm” credit), the only categorization that is consistent across all countries is the one that divides credit into shortterm credit with maturity of one year or less and other credits. determinants of private sector credit flow and economic growth the global financial crisis has resulted in a worldwide slowdown of credit flows, which triggered a discussion about the factors driving sluggish lending activity. unlike previous prominent crises (e.g. in east asia and latin america in the 1990s), the current slowdown in lending is taking place in the absence of rising cost of credit and amid record-low policy rates and monetary stimulus. although the decline in credit flows can be rationalized in view of the overall decline in economic activity, some critics have argued that the slowdown of lending (despite generally low interest rates) can be attributed to credit rationing by financial institutions. according to this “credit crunch” hypothesis, in the presence of asymmetric information interest rates do not equilibrate supply of and copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 14 demand for credit, and rational profit maximizing lenders deliberately constrain the outflow of liquidity in an attempt to avoid the accumulation of risky assets. understanding whether sluggish credit activity is related to constrained supply or weak demand for credit is important from a policy perspective. if the reduction of credit flows is mainly a response to tightened credit standards by financial institutions, then targeted monetary easing coupled with regulatory measures aimed at relaxing prudential norms may be needed to remove the obstacles for credit growth. alternatively, if the reduction of credit flows is mostly driven by the decline in credit demand amid slower business activity, then economic policies aimed at expanding aggregate demand might be more effective in stimulating credit growth. the interest rate structure is one of the most important indicators of the financial sectors. it is also an important determinant of credit flow to the private sector and overall investment activities. lower lending rates and liberal credit policy encourage higher flow of credit to the private sector while rising lending rate and tight monetary policy which are essential tools for controlling inflationary pressures, restrict credit flow to the private sector (economic survey, 2007). hoffman, (2001) asserted that economic activity; interest rates and property prices may affect credit via both credit demand and supply channels. economic conditions and prospects determine consumption and investment demand, and thus the demand for credit. on the other hand, changes in economic activity are reflected in firms’ cash flow position and households’ income. cash flow and income determine the ability of firms and households to repay their debts, so that changes in economic activity may also affect the willingness of financial institutions to extend credit. the state of economic activity may therefore also determine the supply of credit. financing costs, represented by market interest rates, have a negative effect on credit demand. when interest rates go up, loans become more expensive and loan demand is reduced. a monetary tightening, reflected by an increase in interest rates, may also induce financial institutions to cut back credit supply. a reduction in credit supply may also arise from reduced creditworthiness of firms and households due to a deterioration in their financial positions following a monetary tightening (balance sheet channel of monetary transmission). a tightening of monetary policy, operated via open market sales by the central bank, may also drain reserves and thus loanable funds from the banking sector, which may also cause a reduction of loan supply furthermore, they also found that property prices may also affect both credit demand and credit supply. property accounts for a substantial share of household assets, so that changes in property prices may have a significant wealth effect on credit demand. since loans are often secured with real estate collateral, property prices may also have a significant effect on the borrowing capacity of the private sector. an increase in property prices increases the value of collateralisable assets and thus the creditworthiness of firms and households. as a result, financial institutions are more willing to extend loans, so that the supply of credit to the private sector increases. thus, economic activity, interest rates and property prices may affect both credit demand and credit supply. the problem of identifying demand and supply effects in the analysis of credit aggregates is well known and is most likely one of the reasons why there are so few studies analyzing the determinants of credit aggregates. nevertheless, we still think that it is important to understand which factors drive the development of credit aggregates, even if it is not possible to clearly identify the demand and supply effects. empirical review goodhart, (2008) investigates the determinants of credit growth in the united states and the united kingdom over a long sample period (united states 1995-2005, united kingdom 1995-2005). he finds that the change in house prices has a significantly positive effect on credit growth in the united kingdom, but not in the united states. rolling regression estimates suggest that in the united kingdom the relationship between credit and house price has strengthened over the postwar period. borio et al (2010) investigate the relationship between credit-gdp ratios and aggregate asset prices for a large sample of industrialized countries over the period 1990-2005. they find that the development of credit conditions as measured by the credit-gdp ratio is in many countries a major driving force of aggregate asset prices. based on simulations of their estimated models they show that the boom-bust cycles in asset markets of the early 1990s would have been much less pronounced or would not have occurred at all had credit ratios remained constant. good hart and hofmann, (2011) find cross-country evidence for a long-run relationship between bank credit, gdp and residential property prices. based on impulse response analysis they also show that there is a two-way relationship between credit and residential property prices. all these studies are reduced form exercises, focusing on the existence of significant relationships and paying less attention to structural interpretation. but, as we have already outlined above, the identification of credit demand and credit supply effects of changes in property prices is problematic, since property prices may affect both credit demand and credit supply. odedokun, (2013) analyses a sample of 71 developing countries over varying periods that generally span 19912011 in order to generate information about the causality issue. the findings are strongly in favour of the "finance copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 15 causes growth" hypothesis. using time-series regression analysis, the author comes to the conclusion that financial intermediation promotes economic growth in roughly 85 per cent of the countries. secondly, financial intermediation plays an equally important role in promoting growth as other factors, such as export expansion, capital formation ratio, and is more important in this context than labour force growth. thirdly, he observes growth-promoting effects of financial intermediation primarily in low-income ldcs. interestingly he finds that growth-promoting patterns of financial intermediation are practically invariant across various countries and regions for the period. he shows that marginal spillovers from the financial to the real sector are larger on average than vice versa, but decrease over time and relative to marginal spillovers from the real sector. he interprets this as an indication that finance caused growth in earlier stages of taiwan’s economic development while the relationship was reversed later on. some studies, however, come to a different conclusion with respect to the causality issue. mattesini, (2015) uses the lending-deposit spread as a proxy for monitoring cost related to asymmetric information. his estimates refer to the period 1998-2013 and a sample of forty countries. the spread is particularly significant in explaining the growth performance for the whole sample and for the subsample of developed economies. for the low-income subsample, however, there is no significant relation between the spread and growth. the author attributes this to the existence of financial repression in developing countries, which may also affect the size of the spread. empirical evidences revealed that, the most commonly cited reasons for the shortage of long-term bank loans in nigeria are the low levels of long-term liabilities in the banking system that can be used as funding sources. the low levels of long-term liabilities increase the maturities mismatch problem and raise the liquidity risks, thus limiting banks’ ability to issue long-term loans. other potential explanations include low quality and low transparency of borrowers (opacity), high credit risks, weak protection of creditor rights, and low efficiency of bank-level risk management systems. while the legal and business environment is systematic risk factors, other factors such as the availability of long-term funds, the access to best corporate borrowers and the management team expertise in controlling bank credit risks are bank-level factors that may vary substantially across the nigerian banking sector. merriest, (2016), looked at the effect of financial sector reformation on the level of investment in an economy. he investigated the extent to which financial liberalization can improve private investment in developing countries. he made used of a simple portfolio model of investment for argentina from 1996 to 2013, during which the country was affected by various interest rate regimes. his findings show that the increase in real interest rate, which is a typical element of financial reforms, does not necessarily involve a positive effect on private investment unless the authorities are careful to ensure that bank deposits are closer substitutes to unproductive assets (cash, gold) and foreign assets rather than capital goods. the flow of domestic credit to the private sector is not absorbed by the need of the public sector. moshi and kilindo, (2017) considered the effect of government policy on private investment over the 2000-2015 periods in tanzania. regression results from the ordinary least squares estimation technique among others, showed that the real exchange rate had a negative and significant effect, indicating that devaluation reduced the profitability of private investment in the tanzanian economy during the study period. critique of gaps in the literature many researchers have focused on private sector credit and economic growth but majority of the researchers have failed to work on the determinant of private sector credit. however, this study intends to make a different as it will examine the determinant of private sector credit in nigeria. theoretical review theory of economic growth economic growth is closely linked to the intricacies of the financial system. a well developed and efficient financial system helps in allocating financial resources to the best uses in the real sector, thereby promoting economic growth. as the real sector grows, the demand for financing increases and in this way the financial sector grows in tandem with the economy, signifying a two way causal relationship between finance and growth. in developed countries, financing generally flows both from the banking system and the capital markets, while in most developing and transition economies the capital markets lag behind, which shifts the burden of financing to the banking system. there are numerous growth models in literature. however, there is no consensus as to which strategy will achieve the best success. the achievement of sustained growth requires minimum levels of skills and literacy on the part of the population, (nnanna, 2004). some of these existing growth models are two-gap model, marxian theory, schumpeterian theory, and harrods domar theory of growth, neo-classical model of growth, and endogenous growth theory. the growth models relevant to this are neo-classical model of growth, and endogenous growth copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 16 theory, since these growth models explain the situation in developing economies such as nigeria. the neo-classical model of growth was first devised by robert solow. the model believes that a sustained increase in capital investment increases the growth rate only temporarily. this is because the ratio of capital to labour goes up (there is more capital available for each worker to use) but the marginal product of additional units of capital is assumed to decline and the economy eventually moves back to a long-term growth path, with real gdp growing at the same rate as the workforce plus a factor to reflect improving “productivity”. a "steady-state growth path" is reached when output, capital and labour are all growing at the same rate, so output per worker and capital per worker are constant. according to todaro, the neo-classical economists believe that to raise an economy's long term trend rate of growth requires an increase in the labour supply and an improvement in the productivity of labour and capital. differences in the rate of technological change are said to explain much of the variation in economic growth between developed countries. this is shown in the model below. the aggregate production function, y = f (k, l) is assumed characterized by constant returns to scale. for example, in the special case known as the cobb-douglas production, at time t we have y(t) = k (t)a (a(t)l(t)1-a……………………………………………………………………………(1) where y is gross domestic product, k is the stock of capital (which may include human capital as well as physical capital), l is labour, and a(t) represents the productivity of labour, which grows over time at an exogenous rate. because of constant returns to scale, if all inputs are increased by the same amount, say 10%, then output will increase by the same amount (10% in this case). more generally γy =f(γk, γl)………………………………………………………………………(2). where γ is some positive amount (1.1 in the case of a 10% increase). because γ can be any positive real number, a mathematical “trick” useful in analyzing the implications of the model is to set γ = 1/l, so that y/l=f (k/l, 1), or, y=f (k)………………………………………………………… (3) this simplification allows us to deal with just one argument in the production function. y=aka ……………………………………………………………………… (4) this represents an alternative way to think about a production function, in which everything is measured in quantities per worker. equation 4 states that output per worker is a function that depends on the amount of capital per worker. the more capital with which each worker has to work, the more output that worker can produce. the labour force grows at rate n per year, say, and labour productivity growth, the rate at which the value of a in the production function increases, occurs at rate λ. the total capital stock grows when savings are greater than depreciation, but capital per worker grows when savings are also greater than what is needed to equip new workers with the same amount of capital as existing workers have. the solow equation (equation 5) gives the growth of the capital-labour ratio, k (known as capital deepening), and shows that the growth of k depends on savings sf (k), after allowing for the amount of capital required to service depreciation, k, and after capital widening that is, providing the existing amount of capital per worker to net new workers joining the labour force, nk. that is ∆k= sf (k) – ( δ+ n)k ……………………………………………………………(5) for simplicity we are assuming for now that a remains constant. in this case, there will be a state in which output and capital per worker are no longer changing, known as the steady state. (if a is increasing, the corresponding state will be one in which capital per effective workers is no longer changing. in that case, the number of effective workers rises as a rises, the job.) to find this steady state, set ∆k =0: sf (k*) = ( δ+ n)k*…………………………………………………………………………………………………………(6) the notation k* means the level of capital per worker when the economy is in its steady state. the capital per worker k* represents the steady state. if k is higher or lower than k*, the economy will return to it; thus k* is a stable equilibrium. in the solow equation, we see that when (n +δ)k < sf(k),∆k > 0. as a result, k in the economy is growing toward the equilibrium point k*. by similar reasoning to the right of k*,(n + δ)k > sf (k) and as a result ∆k < 0. by the chain rule, y = dy = ∂y∂k + ∂y∂l …………………………………………….............. (7) dt ∂k ∂t ∂l ∂t by the exponent rule, we know that ∂y=a(α+β)kα+β+1 l1-α …………………………………………………………(8) ∂k ∂y=akα+β(1-α)l1-α1 …………………………………………………………… (9) ∂l combining these three equations, we have copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 17 y=dy/dt=[akα+βl1-α][(α+β) k + (1α) l] …………………(10) k l the first term in brackets in the preceding expression is of course output, y. for a steady state, k/k, l/l, and y/y are all constant. from the above k= 1δk = sy – δk ………………………………………………………………. (11) dividing this expression through by k, we have k = sy – δ ………………………………………………………………………. (12) for k/k constant in the preceding expression, we must have y/k constant. if this ratio is constant, we have k = y = g. a constant growth rate so from the expression for dy/dt in the preceding expression, for the aggregate production function, with l/l = n, which is also a constant, we have y=(α+β)(k)+(1-α)l g = (α +β)g + (1 – α)n ………………………… (13) g–n= [(1 α ) + (α + β) – 1] n [1 – (α + β)] 7. methods for achieving the stated objectives the strategies used for achieving the stated objectives were simple regressions of which two equations were formulated in order to achieve the three specific objectives stated. in the equations, the hypotheses stated were tested. the equations are determinant of credit supply equation 1, private sector credit and economic growth equation 2. several authors have also used this approach in their works (reinhart & tokatlidis, 2000; olukotun, adewole & james, 2015; popoola m.a, adewole j.a & idih o.e, 2018) and they were able to arrive at unbiased and accurate results. as a result of this, the approach of regression analysis cannot create a weakness in terms of the results presentation. the data used for this study were source from central bank of nigeria statistical bulletin which is total credit to private sector, total money supply and gross domestic product. the data were choosing to examine the determinant of private sector credit and also measure the relationship between private sector credit and economic growth. 8. discussion on findings the data collected for analysing the determinant of private sector credit and its implications on economic growth in nigeria was presented in appendix (see appendix a). equation 1: from the results of the determinant of credit supply equation i, the correlation coefficient (r) was 0.996. this means that there was a strong correlation between dependent and independent variable. the coefficient of determination (r-squared) was 99.2%. this means that 99.2% variation in the dependent variable was explained by the independent variable and 0.8% of the variation in the dependent variable is explained by the disturbance term or error term. this disturbance terms are inflation, economic meltdown, low productivity, low profitability, non-performing loans etc. in other words, 99.2% variation in total credit to private sector was well explained by variation in money supply. 0.8% variation in the dependent variable was explained by variation of the variables excluded from the model (see appendix b). the confidence intervals result revealed that the level of confidence interval 95%. this means that the samples data of the model reflects the fraction of calculated confidence intervals that encompass the true population.the durbinwatson result is 1.511. the durbin-watson statistics is a number that tests for autocorrelation. autocorrelation is a mathematical representation of the degree of similarity between lagged versions of itself over successive time intervals. in other words, it is a situation in which a time series data is influenced by its own historical values. the durbin-watson statistics is always between 0 and 4. the general rule states that a value of 2 means that there is no autocorrelation in the samples. values approaching 0 indicate positive autocorrelation and values towards 4 indicate negative autocorrelation. however, the durbin-watson result of this model indicated there is autocorrelation since the value of 1.511 is not up to 2. the collinearity diagnostics result reveals that variance inflation factors (vif) is 1.00. the general rule is that vifs exceeding 4 warrant further investigations while vifs exceeding 10 are signs of serious multicollinearity requiring correction. since vifs result is 1.00 in this model, it does not require further investigations (see appendix b). testing for the statistical significant at 5% (determinant of credit supply equation 1) ho: bβ ho: there is no significant relationship between credit to private sector and money supply in nigeria. copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 18 decision t0.05 at (18 – 2) 16 degrees of freedom was statistically significant because the analysis of variance (anova) p – value < 0.05; p value = 0.000 . therefore, h1 is accepted and ho is rejected. there was significant relationship between total credits to private sector and money supply in nigeria. this means that there is enough money supply that guaranteed enough credit to the real sector of the nigerian economy (see appendix b). equation 2: from the results of private sector credit and economic growth equation 2, the correlation coefficient (r) is 0.989. this means that there is a positive or strong correlation between dependent and independent variable. the coefficient of determination (r-squared) is 97.7%. this means that 97.7% variation in the dependent variable was well explained by the independent variable and 0.23% of the variation in the dependent variable is explained by the disturbance term or error term. this disturbance terms are inflation, economic meltdown, low productivity, low profitability, non-performing loans etc. in other words, 97.7% variation in gross domestic product was explained by variation in total credit to private sector. 0.23% variation in the dependent variable is explained by variation of the variables excluded from the model (see appendix c). the confidence intervals result revealed that the level of confidence interval 95%. this means that the samples data of the model reflects the fraction of calculated confidence intervals that encompass the true population. the durbinwatson result is 1.376. the durbin-watson statistics is a number that tests for autocorrelation. autocorrelation is a mathematical representation of the degree of similarity between lagged versions of itself over successive time intervals. in other words, it is a situation in which a time series data is influenced by its own historical values. the durbin-watson statistics is always between 0 and 4. the general rule states that a value of 2 means that there is no autocorrelation in the samples. values approaching 0 indicate positive autocorrelation and values towards 4 indicate negative autocorrelation. however, the durbin-watson result of this model indicated that there is autocorrelation since the value of 1.376 is not up to 2. the collinearity diagnostics result reveals that variance inflation factors (vif) is 1.00. the general rule is that vifs exceeding 4 warrant further investigations while vifs exceeding 10 are signs of serious multicollinearity requiring correction. since vifs result is 1.00 in this model, it does not require further investigations (see appendix c). testing for statistical significant at 5% (private sector credit and economic growth equation 2). ho: bβ ho: there is no significant relationship between private sector credit and economic growth in nigeria. decision t0.05 at (18 – 2) 16 degrees of freedom was statistically significant because analysis of variance (anova) p – value < 0.05; p value = 0.000 . therefore, h1 is accepted and ho is rejected, meaning that bβ is not equal to zero i.e. there was significant relationship between private sector credit and gross domestic product in nigeria. this means that private sector credit impacted positively on economy growth in nigeria within the period of analysis (see appendix c) 9. conclusion it was obvious from the results of the study that the financial sector reform strategies adopted in nigeria have been geared towards making credit available to support the economy. as a result of this, supply of credit to the real sector has been improved. 10. recommendations base on the objective and findings of this study, the study therefore recommends that:  there should be persistence increase of money supply to nigerian economy in order to increase the flow of credit to the real sector of the nigerian economy.  financial institutions should distribute more credit to the real sector for productive purposes in order to increase gross domestic product. references aduda j, masila j m and onsongo e n (2012), the determinants of stock market development : the case for the nairobi stock exchange, international journal of humanities and social science, vol 2, no 9. aliero h m, abdullahi y z and adamu n (2013), private sector credit and economic growth nexus in nigeria: an autoregressive distributed lag bound approach, mediterranean journal of social sciences, vol 4 (1) p83. al-malkawi. h. n. & abdullah, n., (2011). finance-growth nexus: evidence from a panel of mena countries. international research journal of finance and economics, 63, 129-139 copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 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& finance and business 41 insurgence and national security in nigeria: a focus on boko haram able shibinya zhizhi1 & emmanuel okokondem okon2 1department of politcal science, nasarawa state university, keffi, nigeria 2department of economics, kogi state university, anyigba, kogi state, nigeria correspondence:emmanuel okokondem okon, department of economics, kogi state university, anyigba, kogi state, nigeria, e-mail: tonydom57@yahoo.com. tel: +2348023275716 received: january 6, 2018 accepted: january 9, 2018 online published: january 18, 2018 abstract the contemporary nigeria has become a theatre of genocide, bloodshed and insecurity over the past years due to the carnage activities of terrorist groups. terrorists of various groups and camps unleash havoc on the nigerian populace. though these groups are numerous, one of the most noticeable and deadly group is boko haram. this paper attempts to investigate if this group is one of the major security challenges confronting nigeria today. the result reveals that a number of factors, including bad governance and religious and political manipulations, and the long and porous borders of nigeria promote boko haram activities. as such, there is significant relationship between boko haram insurgency and national security in nigeria. this paper recommends that at all levels of government, governance should be taken as a serious business especially in the area of provision of security and public goods such as improved infrastructure and the creation of the enabling environment needed for investment that would in turn creation opportunities for employments which will lead to reduction in poverty. keywords: insurgence, national security, boko haram, nigeria. 1. introduction for most people, the history of nigeria is that of violent conflicts, chaos, and disorderliness, and retrogression. some people have become inured to the ugly and obscene pictures of the maimed, charred human bodies, and the wanton destruction of properties as a result of some of the violence reminiscence of the nigeria civil war. it is possible for anyone to develop amnesia over these horrible violent incidents that have occurred over some decades. and many people cannot live down the orgy of violence resulting to the savage carnage and horror. the overall consequence is that the collective psyche of the people has been affected (udama, 2013). terrorism though not new in nigeria history, but has become the popular vehicle for instilling fear and conducting violence against the citizens in the country. in recent times, nigeria is experiencing a new wave of violence which is terrorism conducted in different forms, means and places. these includes bombing and killing of persons and targeting certain persons and places such as worship centre‟s, living homes, commercial buildings, telecommunication masts, government installations and infrastructure, kidnapping as well as depriving people of their legitimate entitlements (udama, 2013). these terrorist activities are carried out by non-state actors and do not exclude politicians and government functionaries including security agencies that ought to protect lives and properties. since 2001, a new crop of young and daring muslim faithful known as boko haram, where most of them are from the semi-middle class and educated have aggressively embraced a stricter version of islam, rejecting anything christian and western education and culture, have had undiluted resilience carrying high profile terrorist attacks particularly in the northern states of borno, yobe, adamawa, bauchi, gombe, plateau, kaduna, as well as the www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 42 federal capital territory (fct) (udama, 2013). they also have freed suspects from prisons, killing high profile politicians, and carried out the first suicide bomb attack in the abuja police force headquarters. this has prompted the question of who will protect the nigerian citizens, if the forces saddled with the responsibility are helpless. this paper seeks to answer the following research questions whether a number of factors, including illiteracy, unemployment and poverty, corruption, bad governance and religious and political manipulation, and the long and porous borders of nigeria, its vast forest and deserts most of which are not adequately protected, as well as weak institutional frameworks, constitute weaknesses that promote boko haram activities. the basic research proposition of this paper is that there is no significant relationship between boko haram insurgency and national security in nigeria. 2. conceptual review 2.1 national security the term national security lacks specific definition. this is partly because the nature and concept of national security may vary from one state to the other. meanwhile, security refers to the effort to protect the lives and properties of people from threats. it is the state of being secure; freedom from fear, anxiety, danger, and doubt. the threats that people are being protected from via security can take several forms, and could be from anywhere, they could be internal, external, visible, and perceived. accordingly, in order to possess national security, a nation needs to possess economic security, energy security, environmental security, etc(sciencedaily, 2015). security threats involve not only conventional foes such as other nation-states but also non-state actors such as violent non-state actors, narcotic cartels, multinational corporations and non-governmental organizations; some authorities include natural disasters and events causing severe environmental damage in this category. generally, braithwaite (1988) quoting the encyclopedia of the social sciences defines national security as “ability of a nation to protect its internal values from external threat”. also, lipmann defines it by stating that “a nation has security when it does not have to sacrifice its legitimate interest to avoid war, and is able, if challenged, to maintain them by war”. morgenthau (1948) posits that national security and national interests are inter-related; where the former is seen in terms of power and therefore is the essence of politics. imobighe (1981) refers to it as the defense and survival of the state. the danger of looking at national security from this narrow angle according to nweke (1988) is three-fold; but we shall concern ourselves with the first two: first is the tendency to equate “defense” with “security” and to bestow undue responsibilities to the military as if the armed forces alone are the guardians of national security. this tendency in turn creates in the minds of the armed forces that it is only through them that security, stability and progress can be achieved. secondly, national security has been used by civilian statesmen as political rhetorics or slogan for rallying the citizens in the face of perceived internal or external threats to the governments in power and for bolstering their local influence and political base (adebayo, 1986). dyke (1966), concludes that there is no doubt that national security embodies the sovereignty of the state, the inviolability of its territorial boundaries, and the right to individual and collective self-defense against internal and external threats. but the state is secure only when the aggregate of people organized under it has a consciousness of belonging to a common sovereign political community; enjoy equal political freedom, human rights, economic opportunities, and when the state itself is able to ensure independence in its development and foreign policy. freedman‟s (1998) view is that once anything generates anxiety or threatens the quality of life in some respect, it is thus labeled a “security problem”. the notion of economic security thus encourages a confrontational approach to trace policy, while that of “environmental security” has often served more to confuse than to clarify by encouraging a search for adversaries. national security according to otubanjo (1989) is the concern of government about the stability and safety of a state. similarly, adesola (2011) explains national security as the measures taken by a state to ensure its survival and safety. in the nigerian context, edem (n.d.) defines national security as the ability of nigeria to pursue her national interest and protect her core values. the thrust of this state centred definition is to view national security in terms of defence and survival of the state. in this context, “defence” is equated with “security” and the military as the custodians of national security (oshio, 2009). furthermore, otto and ukpere (2012, p.6767) asserts that “security means protection from hidden and hurtful disruptions in the patterns of daily life in homes, offices or communities… security must be related to the presence of peace, safety, happiness and the protection of human and physical resources or the absence of crisis, threats to human injury among others.” there is a remarkable difference between what the concept of national security is in contemporary and traditional periods. national security was traditionally viewed as referring to the protection of the territorial integrity of a state and the protection of its citizens from external threats, with specific focus on protection against military attack. this concept has been described as an evolving one which changed and became seen as not only covering protection of a state‟s territory from external threats, but to also cover internal threats including unrests, as well as enhancing the lives of the of the people in the state, and the provision of infrastructure needed for development. www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 43 the concept has in contemporary times gone beyond those two to include protection not just from internal and external threat, but also to threats to a state‟s way of life. the present scope of the threats that states seek to protect themselves from goes beyond military threats, unrests and other upheavals, to include other forms of threats such as economic, health, social or political. therefore, the modern understanding of national security however extends beyond the physical protection of a territory through military intervention, to the provision of better quality of life and promotion of sustainable development. in this light, national security can be described to include providing higher standard of living through health, economic, human, physical and environmental and food security among others (bello, n.d.). 2.2 insurgency scholars and theorists have given different definitions of insurgency. while some of these definitions are closely related, others are not so related though contain common elements and this still makes the subject technically difficult. perhaps insurgency is best understood by first considering what it is not. insurgency is not terrorism or conventional war for example, though it shares with them some similarities such as the use of force or guerrilla tactics to achieve an end which is often political (liolio, 2013). basically, the difference between insurgency and terrorism lies in the scope and magnitude of violence. while for instance, terrorism rarely brings about political change on its own, insurgency attempts to bring about change through force of arms. similarly, terrorists often apply a wide range of damages when compared to insurgents. on the other hand, while conventional war involves adversaries more or less symmetric in equipment or training, insurgency involves adversaries that are asymmetric, weak, and almost always a sub-state group. traditionally however, insurgencies seek to overthrow an existing order with one that is commensurate with their political, economic, ideological or religious goals (gompert and gordon, 2008). according to kilcullen, “insurgency is a struggle to control a contested political space, between a state (or a group of states or occupying powers), and one or more popularly based, non-state challengers” (kilcullen 2006). kilcullen also try to draw a line between classical and contemporary insurgencies thus: while the latter seek to replace the existing order, the former sometimes strive for the expulsion of foreign invaders from their territory or seek to fill an existing power vacuum (kilcullen 2006). similarly, the oxford english dictionary defines insurgency as “an armed rebellion against a constituted authority (for example, an authority recognized as such by the united nations) when those taking part in the rebellion are not recognized as belligerents.” the british army counter-insurgency manual, army field manual (afm) defined insurgency as: “the actions of a minority group within a state, who are intent on forcing political change by a means of a mixture of subversion, propaganda and military pressure, aiming to persuade or intimidate the broad mass of the people to accept such a change. it is an organized, armed political struggle, the goals of which might be diverse.” this definition also conform with the us army-marine corps counterinsurgency field manual (fm 3-24) which defined insurgency as “an organized, protracted politico-military struggle designed to weaken the control and legitimacy of an established government, occupying power, or other political authority while increasing insurgent control”(petraeus and amos 2006). apart from the definition by kilcullen and to an extent that of oxford dictionary, the author does not totally agree with the other definitions as they fail to reflect the complexities of modern insurgencies especially with regards to their political, economic and social dimensions which kilcullen simply describe as “struggle.” by implication, the other definitions branded insurgency as a predominantly military problem. however, in what seems to be a replacement of the 2006 fm 3-24 definition of insurgency, the 2009 joint publication 3-24 counterinsurgency operations, defined insurgency as “the organized use of subversion and violence by a group or movement that seeks to overthrow or force change of a governing authority.” while the author agrees more with this definition by the joint publication, he wishes to stress that such definition excludes any insurgency that does not seek to overthrow or change the governing authority. a good example would be separatist insurgencies which aim for secession from within a state or reformist insurgencies which seek to influence government policies by forceful means. in all, insurgencies connote an internal uprising often outside the confines of state‟s laws and it is often characterized by social-economic and political goals as well as military or guerrilla tactics. put differently, it is a protracted struggle carefully and methodically carried out to achieve certain goals with an eventual aim of replacing the existing power structure. to launch their anger on the state, insurgents often target civilians and infrastructures. however, other than the violence of insurgency are its political and social-economic dimension, where often lies its causes and effects. 3. insecurity in nigeria the myriad of security problems confronting nigeria have had dire impact on the socio-economic and political development in the country. odeselu (2011), confirms that insecurity in nigeria has affected air transport negatively. it scares away passengers and is like draining blood from a man, it drains the resources that could have www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 44 been used to improve safety, including finance and time. it induces multiple levels of security checks at the airports with the attendant stress on the traveling public. otto (2008) has shown that insecurity took a great toll on oil production in nigeria between 1999 and 2008 nigeria was producing at about 10% of its potentials of 3.4 million barrels of crude oil per day in 2007. currently, the cost of petroleum production in nigeria is higher than it was before 1999 because of the higher security expenditure necessary now (otto and ukpere, 2012). also, insecurity increases the unit cost of doing business in nigeria. apart from the fall in output and the increase in unit cost of production, many firms in different industries relocated away from the niger delta in particular. and some left the country completely. example, include michelin, dunlop, among several others. an insecure environment impinges directly on development; it disenfranchises communities, contributes to poverty, distorts economies, creates instability and stunts political development. in nigeria, apart from the millions of people who had been killed in course of one security breach or another, sources of livelihood were destroyed, families got disintegrated and social infrastructure were disrupted (otto and ukpere, 2012). 3. 1. boko haram attacks in the country boko haram was a local radical salafist group which transformed into a salafi-jihadist terrorist organization (chimezie, n.d.). on 6 july 2009, first clash was with security agencies in bauchi state after an all-night attack on dutsen-tanshi police, 39 members, two police, one soldier killed. 27 july 2009, first attack in yobe state during an invasion of potiskum divisional headquarters led to the death of three policemen, one fire service officer. on 29 july 2009, confrontation with security men at mamudo village, along potiskum/damaturu road, yobe, 33 boko haram men killed(sani, 2011). on the same date in all-night battle with combine security operative at railway terminus, maiduguri, borno state, boko haram did not only kill but destroyed operational base of the combine security. since 2009, the islamic sect boko haram has been blamed for many attacks in different parts of nigeria including the federal capital territory, abuja. see appendix for a timeline of attacks for which the sect has claimed responsibility. 4. research methodology 4.1 area of study nigeria is located between 4°n and 14°n of the equator. the western frontiers runs from 3°e and the eastern reaches nearly 15°e of the meridian (margottini et al, 2013). since it was impossible to conduct the research in the whole areas in nigeria where bokoharram attacks had happened. a few places were selected where severe impact and casualties were recorded after the attacks by boko haram. as such, the study purposely selected kabba in kogi state and nyanya in abuja. nyanya is a town, and a suburb of abuja city in centralnigeria. it is a district of karulocal government area, nasarawa state, and is among the towns that make up the karu urban area, a conurbation of towns stretching to nigeria's capital city, abuja. its neighbouring towns are mararaba, ado, masaka, new karu and kurunduma and villages that grew, as a result of the rapid expansion of administrative and economic activities of abuja, into neighbouring towns, coupled with the evacuation of tens of thousands of people from abuja by the federal capital territory administration (wikipedia, 2013). kabba is a town in kogi state in mid-west nigeria. it lies near the osse river, at the intersection of roads from lokoja, okene, ogidi, ado-ekiti, and egbe. the town is near abuja. kabba was the administrative headquarters of the kabba province of the defunct northern region of nigeria, which includes all of the current kogi state. the town is the headquarters of the kabba/bunnu local government area of kogistate.kabba is a trade centre for coffee, cocoa, yams, cassava, maize, sorghum, shea nuts, peanuts (groundnuts), beans, cotton, and woven cloth produced by the yoruba, ebira, and other peoples of the surrounding area (wikipedia, 2014). 4.2 instrument validity to assess the validity, the instrument was piloted among 3 randomly selected household in each areas of the study. responses, views, impatience and difficulties to complete the questionnaire were noted instantly by the researchers, this warranted restructuring the questionnaire by collapsing some instruments and resorting to two-option response format as against the likert-type scale from 1 to 4. as such the questionnaire was kept simple but still containing vital questions regarding the issue at hand. the final draft of the questionnaire was sent to a few colleagues who are knowledgeable in this field. it should also be noted that in-depth interview was conducted among the respondents in the study areas. 4.3 sampling 60 questionnaires were administered randomly to households in kabba inkogi state and also 60 households were randomly selected in nyanya in abuja where questionnaires were administered. a total of 100 questionnaires were retrieved out of 120 administered. this represented 83 percent retrieval rate. table 2 in appendix shows the questionnaire that was administered and the response. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/abuja http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/middle_belt http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/middle_belt http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/middle_belt http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/karu,_nasarawa_state http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/karu,_nasarawa_state http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/karu,_nasarawa_state http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/nasarawa_state http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/karu_urban_area http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/conurbation http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/mararaba http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ado,_nasarawa http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/masaka,_nigeria http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/new_karu http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/federal_capital_territory_%28nigeria%29 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/federal_capital_territory_%28nigeria%29 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/federal_capital_territory_%28nigeria%29 www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 45 data collected were subjected to statistical analysis using several statistical tables and analytical tools: descriptive statistics which use means and percentages for answering questions; inferential statistics such as one way analysis of variance classification; chi2 test and t test adopted in testing formulated hypothesis of the study at 5% level of significance. 5. results and discussion the demographic result in table 1 regarding the gender composition of respondents show 53% males while 47% of the respondents are females. 74% of the respondents are within the age of 21-30 years while 10% of the respondents are within the ages 1-20 years, also 10% of the respondents are within the ages 41-50 and 6% of the respondents are within the ages of 31-40 years. the marital status of respondents shows 85% of the respondents as single while 4% are married. however, 10% of the respondents are widowed and 1% of the respondent appeared divorced. majority of respondents as shown in the table have tertiary education (80%) while 18% of the respondents have primary/secondary education. nonetheless, 2% of the respondents have other educational qualification. in terms of occupational distribution, the bulk of respondents are students (78%);10% of the respondents are civil servants; 11% of the respondents are business men/women; and 1% of the respondents is into trade. still, from the bio data section of table 1, 79% are respondents are christians while 21% are muslims. in section two of the questionnaire where research questions were ask, the information in table 1 shows that most of the respondents (89%) are aware that boko haram insurgency exists in nigeria. similarly, 85% said that they have been directly or indirectly affected by their insurgence. about 78% of the respondents were of the opinion that boko haram insurgency has negatively affected national security in nigeria while 22% of the respondents disagree that boko haram insurgency has negatively affected national security in nigeria. invariably, most of the respondents agree that boko haram insurgency has negatively affected national security in nigeria. moreover, 79 respondents representing 79% of the respondents agree that religious and political manipulations in nigeria is an indication of boko haram insurgency while 21% of the respondents disagree. a large sum of respondents (86 in number or 86%)agree that if religious and political manipulations is minimized in nigeria, it will reduce boko haram insurgency. on the subject of well-being, 87% of the respondents are of the perception that illiteracy, unemployment and poverty are responsible for boko haram insurgency in the country. similarly, a large percentage of respondents (90%) are of the opinion that corruption, bad governance and weak institutional framework also promote this insurgence. on the issue of borders, 92% of the respondents agree that the long and porous borders, vast forest and deserts in nigeria promotes boko haram insurgency while 8 respondents representing 8% of the respondents disagree on this on. a lot of the respondents (79%) were highly of the opinion that if security is beefed up around the long and porous borders, vast forest and deserts in nigeria, it will reduce boko haram activities. in a similar manner, majority of the respondents(88%) disagree that the federal, state and local governments in nigeria have done enough to reduce the sect‟s activities. the security operatives and security agencies have not done enough either. this is as expressed by 86% of respondents. a very high percentage of respondents (99%) disagree that the fight against boko haram insurgency should be left for the security operatives and security agencies. if the general populace is educated on the need and importance of security and security consciousness at all times, it will reduce boko haram insurgency in nigeria. this is the take of 98% of respondents. 5.1 verification of research proposition 5.1.1 in-depth interview report the researchers interviewed ten respondents who were purposively chosen because of the questions they answered. these respondents include security operatives, security experts and journalists who were the key informants that gave detailed information about the subject under study. a summary report is made of the in-depth one-to-one interviews among the ten respondents to bring out the central messages of the interviews so as to avoid repetition as there are so many similarities in the answers given by the various respondents. the respondents said that boko haram insurgency in nigeria is as a result of different factors ranging from illiteracy, unemployment, poverty, corruption and bad governance, religious and political manipulations, the long and porous borders, vast forest and deserts. commenting on illiteracy, the interview revealed that so many youths in all parts of nigeria are still uneducated and this is causing serious problem as these uneducated youths engage in all forms of social vises. on unemployment, the interview revealed that graduated youths are parading the streets due to lack of jobs. on poverty, the respondents say that the level of poverty in the country is alarming owing to the fact that so many people cannot afford the basic necessities of life. on the issue of corruption and bad governance, the respondents say that in nigeria, the federal, state and local government has failed in the provision of basic amenities such as infrastructure, health care delivery, education, and security despite the huge resources gotten from oil. on religious and political manipulation, the respondents say that religious indoctrination and its influence have played www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 46 great role in crisis in nigeria and political manipulation has been in existence since independence and this has manifested itself in the area of access to power which guarantee access to resources and revenues. on the long and porous borders, vast forest and deserts, the respondents say that is has become worrisome in recent time as terrorist groups enter the country unchecked and use nigeria‟s forests as their bases for recruitment and training camps for their new followers. according to the respondents, the federal, state and local governments have not done enough to fight boko haram insurgency in nigeria in the sense that security operatives are not provided with up to date weapons and security gadgets to tackle boko haram insurgents. 5.1.2 statistical verification h0 states that there is no significant relationship between boko haram insurgency and national security in nigeria. the binomial test was used concerning the issue of security in nigeria. as such the responses from the following questions were analyzed: has boko haram insurgency negatively affected national security in nigeria (nsec)? does the long and porous borders,vast forest and deserts in nigeria promote boko haram insurgency(dlong)? decide whether to reject h0. the p value in this case is .000 which is less than or equal to our α level of .05. thus, we reject h0that there is no significant relationship between boko haram insurgency and national security in nigeria. 6. conclusion and policy suggestions the conclusion of this research is that terrorism is real in nigeria especially with the activities of boko haram which includes bombing and killing of persons and targeting certain persons and places such the worship centre‟s, living homes, commercial buildings, telecommunication masts, government installations and infrastructure, kidnapping as well as depriving people of their legitimate entitlements. these terrorist activities are carried out by non-state actors and do not exclude politicians and government functionaries including security agency that ought to protect lives and properties. this paper suggests that: the various levels of government should take governance as a serious business especially in the area of security (i.e., all government functionaries should be provided with sophisticated information gathering equipment that would enable them to detect terrorist activities early and nip them in the bud. also, there is need to educate the general populace on the need and importance of security and security consciousness at all times) and provision of public goods such as improved infrastructure and the creation of the enabling environment needed for investment that would in turn creation opportunities for employments. the government should address the myriad of problems such as poverty, corruption, unemployment, drug trafficking and abuse etc., which are the likely precursors to violent reaction and the consequence insecurity. similarly, government should endeavor to make poor youth‟s part and parcel of development opportunities. more vocation that is youth centered should be introduced in nigeria to enhance unskilled labor and boost their mental ability. seminars/workshops on hand and personal skills should be organized for youths at the grass root level and there should be periodic evaluation of individuals so as to know their operational strength. this will help reduce social vices like political unrest, kidnappings, bombing and killing and so on, indulged by the youths in the society. in the same vein, government should build and renovate every dilapidated primary and secondary school and provide more education for the people at affordable rate, so that poor people can be educated. the acquisition of formal education enhances self-worth and develop human mental faculty. for effective control of corruption, the society should insist on the development of the culture of relative openness, in contrast to the current bureaucratic system of secrecy. leaders must ensure transparency and accountability in all levels of government and must be published. in that regard, the role of the press in public enlightenment campaign against corruption is very important in an attempt to eradicate corruption in nigeria because this strategy can help to raise the peoples‟ awareness about the problem. www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 47 references adebayo, a. 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(2013).understanding corruption in nigeria and its implications to national security and sustainable development.osr journal of humanities and social science,10(1), 60-73. wikipedia (2013).new nyanya.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/new_nyanya wikipedia (2014).kabba.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/kabba. appendix table 1: timeline of boko haram attacks in nigeria from 2009 to 2014 date location of action number of deaths number of injured 6 july 2009 dutsen-tanshi police station, bauchi state 42 xxx 27 july 2009 potiskum divisional headquarters, yobe state 4 xxx 29 july 2009 mamudo village, yobe state 33 xxx 29 july 2009 railway terminus, maiduguri, borno state several xxx 8 sept. 2010 bauchi central prison, bauchi state xxx xxx 25 dec.2010 maiduguri 6 xxx 30 dec.2010 jos 32 31 dec.2010 abuja, mogadishr military barracks 11 13 9 oct.2011 maiduguri xxx xxx http://www.google.com.ng/ http://rieas.gr/images/alban.pdf http://www.nigerdeltacongress.com/narticles/nigerian_state_and_national_secu.htm http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2008/rand_mg595.2.pdf https://www.google.com.ng/search?biw=1271&bih=634&tbm=bks&q=inauthor:%22claudio+margottini%22&sa=x&ei=dsx9vnc7oyrtuvy3g2a&ved=0cb0q9agwaa https://www.google.com.ng/search?biw=1271&bih=634&tbm=bks&q=inauthor:%22paolo+canuti%22&sa=x&ei=dsx9vnc7oyrtuvy3g2a&ved=0cb4q9agwaa https://www.google.com.ng/search?biw=1271&bih=634&tbm=bks&q=inauthor:%22kyoji+sassa%22&sa=x&ei=dsx9vnc7oyrtuvy3g2a&ved=0cb8q9agwaa https://books.google.com.ng/books?isbn=3642313191 http://www.vanguardngr.com/2011/07/boko-haram-history-ideas-and-revolt-6/ http://www.vanguardngr.com/2011/07/boko-haram-history-ideas-and-revolt-6/ http://thenet.ng/2014/06/2014-a-timeline-of-boko-haram-attacks-in-nigeria/ http://thenet.ng/2014/06/2014-a-timeline-of-boko-haram-attacks-in-nigeria/ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/new_nyanya http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/kabba www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 48 8aprail2011 suleja, inec office 16 xxx 16june 2011 abuja, nigerian police headquarters 8 44 26june 2011 maiduguri 25 12 23 july 2011 maiduguri 3 several 30 july 2011 maiduguri 5 10 26aug 2011 abuja, un house 26 116 13sep.2011 maiduguri 4 xxx 4 dec.2011 azare,katagum l.g.a bauchi state 3 xxx 7 dec.2011 kaduna 7 xxx 13 dec.2011 maiduguri 10 30 22 dec.2011 maiduguri &damaturu 4 xxx 25 dec 2011 jos, suleja&yobe 43 xxx 28 dec 2011 sapele, delta, hausa quarters xxx 7 30 dec 2011 gombe, hotel xxx 15 5/6 jan.2012 gombe& adamawa state 28 xxx 7 jan. 2012 adamawa 17 12 20 jan. 2012 kano 162 xxx 22 jan.2012 bauchi 11 xxx 3 feb. 2012 kogi state, police station 4 xxx 11march2012 jos 10 xxx 24march2012 kano 2 xxx 8 april 2012 jos 20 xxx 8 april 2012 kaduna 40 xxx 25 april 2012 maiduguri, police headquarters 7 xxx 26 april 2012 abuja, kaduna 6 xxx 29april 2012 bayero university, kano 16 xxx 30april 2012 taraba 11 xxx 3 june 2012 bauchi 12 xxx 8 june 2012 maiduguri xxx xxx 10 june 2012 jos 8 xxx 17 june 2012 kaduna & zaria 40 xxx 22 june 2012 abuja xxx xxx 13 july 2012 maiduguri 5 xxx 30 july 2012 zaria & kaduna 5 xxx 14august2014 kaduna 4 xxx 23 sept. 2012 bauchi 2 46 5 oct. 2012 maiduguri 1 11 6 oct. 2012 taraba xxx 8 8 oct. 2012 maiduguri 35 xxx 28 oct. 2012 kaduna 8 100 7 may 2013 bama 55 xxx 6 july 2013 yobe state 42 xxx 12 feb. 2014 konduga 39 xxx 12 feb. 2014 wajirko 4 6 16 feb 2014 borno 90 xxx 19 feb 2014 bama 60 xxx 25 feb 2014 buniyadi 59 xxx 1 march 2014 maiduguri 51 xxx 1 march 2014 mainok 39 xxx 10 april 2014 kala balge 60 xxx 10 april 2014 dikwa 8 xxx 14 april 2014 nyanya, abuja 88 125 www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 49 1 may 2014 nyanya, abuja 19 60 5 may 2014 gamborongala 300 xxx 18 may 2014 kano 4 xxx 20 may 2014 jos 118 56 21 may 2014 chikongudu 25 xxx 25 may 2014 yobe&borno state 48 xxx 27 may 2014 borno state 48 xxx 31 may 2014 kala/balge 40 xxx source: thenationon(2014), thenet(2014). table 2: questionnaire administered and the response part one: bio data about respondent sex frequency percentage male 53 53% female 47 47% total 100 100% age frequency percentage 1-20 10 10% 21-30 74 74% 31-40 6 6% 41-50 10 10% 51-above total 100 100% marital status frequency percentage single 85 85% married 4 4% divorced 1 1% widow 10 10% total 100 100% educational qualification frequency percentages primary/secondary 18 18% tertiary 80 80% others 2 2% total 100 100% occupational status frequency percentages civil servants 10 10% business men/women 11 11% students 78 78% traders 1 1% total 100 100% religion frequency percentage islam 21 21% christianity 79 79% traditional worshippers total 100 100% part two: research questions does insurgence exist in nigeria frequency percentage yes 89 89% no 11 11% total 100 100% has boko haram insurgency affected you directly or frequency percentage www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 50 indirectly yes 85 85% no 15 15% total 100 100% has boko haram insurgency negatively affected national security in nigeria frequency percentage yes 78 78% no 22 22% total 100 100% is illiteracy, unemployment and poverty responsible for boko haram insurgency frequency percentage yes 87 87% no 13 13% total 100 100% is corruption,bad governance and weak institutional framwork the cause of boko haram insurgency frequency percentage yes 90 90% no 10 10% total 100 100% is religious and political manipulations an indication of boko haram insurgency friquency percentage yes 79 79% no 21 21% total 100 100% if religious and political manipulations is minimized,it will reduce boko haram insurgency frequency percentage yes 86 86% no 14 14% total 100 100% does the long and porous borders,vast forest and deserts in nigeria promote boko haram insurgency frequency percentage yes 92 92% no 8 8% total 100 100% if security is beefed up around the borders and deserts,will it reduce boko haram insurgency frequency percentage yes 79 79% no 21 21% total 100 100% has the federal, state and local government, done enough to reduce boko haram insurgency frequency percentage yes 12 12% no 88 88% total 100 100% has security operatives and security agencies done enough to reduce boko haram insurgency frequency percentage yes 14 14% no 86 86% total 100 100% should the fight against boko haram insurgency be left for the security agencies and security operatives alone frequency percentage www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 51 yes 1 1% no 99 99% total 100 100% if the general populace are educated on the need and importance of security and security consciousness at all times,will reduce boko haram insurgency frequency percentage yes 98 98% no 2 2% total 100 100% source: field survey. copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. this is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr american economic & social review; vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 research article published by centre for research on islamic banking & finance and business, usa 1 influence of bank credits on the nigerian economy idachaba odekina innocent department of banking and finance ahmadu bello university, zaria, kaduna state, nigeria email: innocentdaniel4grace@gmail.com tel: +234 18633840 olukotun g. ademola department of banking and finance kogi state university, anyigba, kogi state, nigeria email: olukgaby@yahoo.com tel: +234 8062995674 elam wunako glory department of banking and finance ahmadu bello university, zaria, kaduna state, nigeria email: elamglory5@gmail.com tel: +234 7066480216 abstract the aim of this study is to examine the influence of bank credits on the nigerian economy using time series data covering the period from 1980 to 2017.gross domestic product was used as proxy for the economy while credits to the private sector, public sector and prime lending rate were used as proxies of banks credits. unit root test was used to test stationary which reveals that all the variables were stationary at first difference. the regression analysis result shows that credit to the private sector have positive effect on nigerian economy while credit to public sector and prime lending rate have negative effect on the nigerian economy. the result of co-integration test presented reveals that there exist among the variables co-integration which means long-run analysis. it is recommended that, policy makers should focus attention on long-run policies to promote economic growth such as development of modern banking sector, efficient financial market, infrastructures. keywords: financial institutions, bank credits, economic growth, economic development , resources 1. introduction globally banks in developing countries are expected to play vital and effective roles in financing their economic projects and activities as their contributions in ensuring sustainable economic growth and development. as financial institutions, banks perform intermediation roles by allowing funds to be channeled from people who might not put them to productive use to people who will definitely do so within an economy. the intermediary roles of bank can foster economic growth through rising of savings, improving efficiency of loan-able funds and promoting capital accumulation. the importance of bank credit in developing economy has been acknowledge in schumpeter (1934) who argue that banking sector facilitate technological innovation through their intermediary role. he emphasized on the efficient allocation of savings through identification and funding of entrepreneur as well as implementation of innovative production processes that are the main tools in order to achieve real economic performance. in the same vein, shaw (1967) and mckinnon (1973) also agreed the fact that financial development facilitates economic growth by increasing savings, efficient allocation and investment of financial resources. these studies further explained that development of financial markets is an essential condition for rapid economic growth. the level of development and sophistication of a country's financial sectors could be relied on as one of the valuable indicators of economic growth. sustaining economic development has been the paramount objective of all successive government in the country since nigeria independence in 1960. this led to the implementation of several national development plans and programmes aimed at boosting productivity and diversifying the economic base. the agenda necessitates the copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 2 intervention of financial sectors especially banking industry by providing financial resources for large scale production of industries and provision of other credit facilities within the economy. the role of financial intermediation in sustaining economic development cannot be over-emphasized; the development of this sector determines how it can effectively and efficiently discharge its major role of mobilizing fund from the surplus unit to the deficit unit within the economy. according to adekunle, salami and adedipe (2013), a well-developed financial system plays several roles to boost efficiency of intermediation through reduction of information, transaction and monitoring costs. it will also enhance investment by identifying and funding good business opportunities, mobilizes savings, encourage trading, hedging and diversification of risk as well as facilitating exchange of goods and services. all these resulted in more efficient allocation of resources, accumulation of physical and human capital and faster technological progress, which in turn leads to economic growth. the attempt to strengthen the private sector (manufacturing sector inclusive) by the government led to the implementation of financial liberalisation policy in 1986 as part of the structural adjustment programme (sap). the structural adjustment programme (sap) was an economic reform programme aimed at restructuring the economy and averting economic collapse. the key objectives of sap are to lay the basis for sustaining noninflationary or minimal inflationary growth and improve the efficiency of the public and private sectors. therefore, the financial liberalization (reform) policy entails the provision of an appropriate legal and regulatory framework for effective private participation in the economy. the country also adopted a medium-term strategy, called the national economic empowerment and development strategy (needs) in 2004, as a response to the numerous challenges facing the nation. recently, the government approved vision 20-2020 for transforming the country into a modern economy, among the 20 leading countries in the world by 2020 (the times of nigeria 2008). the objective of the vision 20-2020 is in line with various studies and projections by goldman sachs that nigeria will be the 20th and 12th largest economy of the world by 2025 and 2050 respectively ahead of italy, canada, korea, among others(skyscraper city 2006), and africa biggest economy by 2050 (business economy, 2008). the vision 2020 is to be realized through the growth of the private sector. however, as solanke (2007) argued, the state of the private sector, its characteristics, disposition and resilience would determine in substantial respects how far the lofty objectives of repositioning nigeria’s economy can be achieved. accordingly, the nigeria government has also adopted the public private partnership (ppp) strategy. ppp schemes are designed to lead to dramatic improvement in quality, availability and cost-effectiveness of services. these include service contracts; management contracts; leases; build, operate and transfer; and concessions. as a compliment to the various programmes of the government to accelerate the rate of growth of the economy, it has been suggested that the level of dependence on the oil sector should be reduced, while concentration should be on the manufacturing, energy, transport and agriculture (hale, 2002). this means that efficient allocation of funds to the real sector have high tendency of improving the economy. in the mid-80s, the direct control of credit allocation and regulated interest rate structure was used to channel banks credit to the real sectors of the economy by that arrangement, banks were statutorily required to allocate most of the loan-able funds to the key sectors like agriculture, manufacturing, sold minerals, housing at low rate of interest which would result in high investments and outputs and invariably growth of the domestic economy, however, the weakness that characterized the policy in september 1986 to eliminate inefficiency and enhance effective mobilization and utilization of resources which ultimately would translate to a sound and stable banking system. hence, the central bank of nigeria has made concerted effort via several banks reforms especially from the wake of last decade through effective surveillance and prudential guidelines, a more stringent procedure for licensing and increase in the capitalization base among others to ensure a sound and stable banking system capable of providing effective intermediation that would stimulate growth, encourage medium and long-term lending to the real sectors capable of diversifying the productive base of the economy (iwedi & igbanibo 2015). it would be recalled that the banking crisis in nigeria in the 1990s was associated with sharp increases in interest rate, large currency depreciation and devaluation and lasting decline in the supply of credit. it is worth knowing that access to bank credit allows firms to increase production, output and efficiency and in turn increases the profitability of banks through interest earned and improves economic growth (adeniyi 2015). abubakar and gani, (2013) also agreed that the real sector in nigeria still face difficulty in the accessibility of financial resources especially from the commercial banks that hold about 90% of the total financial sector assets and high rate of interest rate causing many firms to avoid bank-borrowing. other formidable financing challenges include concentration of bank credit to the oil and gas, communication and general commerce sectors to the disadvantage of the core real sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing sectors. also, banks are more disposed to financing government financial need as almost 50% of their assets are tied up by government debt. copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 3 basically, the nigerian commercial banks dominate the financial sector and account for a large proportion (above 90%) of transactions within the system. this is measured as percentage of total assets of the commercial banks to other financial institutions within the system. the above clearly shows that the deposit money banks dominate the nigerian banking scene. it therefore becomes very important to study the effectiveness of these banks on the nigerian economy. there has been a renewed interest globally into the study of credit and its ability to generate growth and the position of this country makes it somehow important to see the contribution of the financial sector to the spate of growth within the economy. this study shall examine the influence of bank credit on the nigeria economy using credit to private sector, credit to public sector and prime lending rate as the independent variables while real gross domestic products as dependent variables. series of empirical studies has been conducted on the subject matter from both developed and developing countries for example; (akpansung, 2011; murty, sailaja & dismissie, 2012; muhsin & eric, 2000; mishra, das & pradhan 2009; aliero, abdullahi & adamu, 2013; hassan, sanchez & yu, 2011; eatzaz & malik, 2009; debray, 2003; aurangzeb, 2012; ekpenyong & ikechukwo, 2011;). however, some studies found positive relationship between commercial bank credit and the economy (ahmed, 2008; akpansung and babalola 2011; aurangzeb, 2012;) among others, while others found a negative relationship between commercial bank credit and economy (nuno, 2012; debray, 2003; ekpenyong & ikechukwo, 2011; hassan et al. (2011), levine (1997) and levine, loayza & beck, 2000). however, the divergence in previous findings may be attributed to differences in methodologies, economic factors and time frame among others. in the same way, the study by mushin and eric (2000) showed that the effect runs from economic growth to financial development and not otherwise. atseye, edim and ezeaku (2015) highlight that despite the fact that credit influences the economy there still remains a gap in understanding the causal relationship between commercial bank credit and its impact in developing economies. the influence of such types of credit on economic growth has received little attention from researchers. admitting the existence of such gap, tuuli (2002) states that of course there have been a few empirical findings on the determinants of growth in developing economies, but the relationship between bank credit and the economy has however been neglected. for this reason, the need to fill this gap necessitated this empirical study on the nigerian case. this study will be able to answer the following empirical questions; does bank credit to the private sector affect the nigerian economy? does bank credit to the public sector affect the nigerian economy? does prime lending rate of bank credit influence the nigerian economy? the study sought to achieve the following specific objectives: to determine how bank credits to the private sector affects the nigerian economy, to determine how bank credits to the public sector affects the nigerian economy and to establish the extent to which prime lending rate of commercial bank credits affect the nigerian economy. the outline of the study is as follows: section one discussed the introduction of the paper, section two discussed the literature review, section three outlines the methodology, section four presents the data analysis and discussion of results and lastly, section five recommendations and conclusion 2. literature review 2.1 concept of economic growth according to dewett (2005) as cited in nwanyanwu (2010), economic growth is an increase in the net national product in a given period of time. he explained that economic growth is generally referred to as a quantitative change in economic variables, normally persisting over successive periods. he added that determinants of economic growth are availability of natural resources, the rate of capital formation, capital-output ratio, technological progress, dynamic entrepreneurship and other factors. 2.2 concept of bank credits cbn briefs (2003) define bank credits as the amount of loans and advances given by the banking sector to the various economic agents. cbn monetary policy circular (2010) identifies such bank credit facilities to include loans, advances, commercial papers, bankers’ acceptance, bill discounted with a bank credit risk. bank credit is often accomplished with some collateral that helps to ensure the repayment of the loan in the event of default. credit channels savings into productive investment thereby encouraging economic growth. according to nzotta (2004), it is generally accepted that bank credits influence positively the level of economic activities in any country; it influences what is to be produced, who produces it and quantity to be produced. bank credit affects and alters the level of money supply in an economy or country. it is the most important source of bank income and it promotes the activities of banks and non-bank financial institution and this influences the level of growth of production, the level of entrepreneurship and the realization of aggregate economic performance, development and growth. it could thus be said with absolute assurance that banking industry credit is of crucial importance both to the bank, the monetary authorities, business community and the economy in general. copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 4 credit to private sector, credit to public sector and prime lending are used as independent variables for this study for the following reasons; one of the indications or signs (but not the only one), of economic development and prosperity is the development and increasing share (role) of private and public sector in the national economy or gdp of a certain country. referring to data from the world bank, an economic measure of so called domestic credit to private sector ( % to gdp ) means that financial resources like loans and non equity securities are provided to the private sector by financial institutions like banks and other financial corporation’s all measured as percentages with respect to gdp ( or national size of economy) . the higher this measure is, the higher financial resources or financing is to private sector in a country and so the greater opportunity and space for the private sector to develop and grow. the better the private sector gets and bigger role it has in national economy, the better is generally the health and development of the economy of this country. more so, public sector credit are needed to stimulate economic growth in spite of the deficiencies shown overtime in the public sector credit, private sector credit has been a good predictor of economic growth 2.3 empirical literature review most scholars have agreed that there is relationship between bank credit and economic growth. however, scholars have differed on the direction of causality between bank credit and economic growth (oluitan, 2009). in order to examine the relationships that exist between bank credit and economic growth, previous studies have used several analytical approaches. modebe, ugwuegbe and ugwuoke (2014) investigated the impact of bank credit on the growth of nigerian economy for the period of 1986-2012; the result of the ols regression showed that there is a negative and significant relationship between gdp and tbcps in the long run. m2 which was used as control variable has a positive and significant impact on gdp at the long run. the short run dynamics of the variables indicates that tbcps also have a negative and insignificant impact on gdp at the short-run. the result of the granger causality test reviles that causation runs from gdp to tbcps and not the other way round, a case of unidirectional causality. the result also showed bidirectional causality between tbcps and m2. evaluating the relationship between financial development and economic growth (eatzaz & malik, 2009) found that bank credits to the private sector significantly increase the productivity of workers (output per worker) and as such, facilitates long-run economic growth with respect to nigeria. in the same way, study by (aliero, abdullahi & adamu, 2013) over the period 1974-2010 examined the impact of bank credit on economic growth. the result from autoregressive distributed lag bound approach showed that private sector had significant positive effect on economic growth in nigeria. kiran, yavus and guris (2009) apply ratios of bank credits to the gdp and private sector credit to the gdp and find a positive and statistically significant relationship between bank credits and economic growth. murty, sailaya and demissie (2012) by using multivariate johansen co integration approach examined the long run impact of the bank credit on economic growth of ethiopia. the study found a significant long-run relationship between bank credits and economic growth in ethiopia. nuno (2012) applies a dynamic panel data (gmm-system estimator) technique to evaluate the nexus between bank credits and economic growth in the european union. the study found that savings promotes growth while inflation and bank credits negatively impacts on economic growth. akpansung and babalola (2011) found significant long-run relationship between private sector bank credits and economic growth in nigeria. the causality runs from gdp to private sector bank credits and also from industrial production to gdp, lending rate are found to impede economic growth. hassan, sanchez and yu (2011) assert that rapid bank credit expansion negatively impacts on economic growth. the studies argue that rapid and uncontrolled expansion in bank credits has the tendency to discourage domestic savings and investments. mulhsin and eric (2000) carried out a study on turkish economy; it was found that bank deposits, private sector credit or domestic credit ratios are alternatively used as proxies for financial development; causality runs from economic growth to financial development. their conclusion was that growth seems to lead financial sector development. shittu (2012) adopted unit root test, co-integration and error correction model to examine the impact of financial intermediation on economic growth in nigeria, the study conclude that credit through deposit is a determinant of economic growth in nigeria. this is in agreement with the study of yakubu and affoi (2014) which conclude that commercial banks credit impacts positively and significantly on the economic growth of nigeria. ogege and boloupremo (2014) employ adf, johansen co-integration and ecm, the study concludes that only credit allocated to production sector is having a significant positive effect on growth. akpansung & babalola (2009), examined the impact of bank credit on the growth of nigerian economy for the period of 1970-2008, using two-stage least square and granger causality test, the result indicates that bank credit has a negative impact on the growth of nigerian economy with causation running from gdp to bank credit. marshal, igbanibo and onuegbu (2015) did study in nigeria and found strong positive correlation between banks credit and gdp and concluded that there is unidirectional relationship running from gdp to banking sector credit. orji, a. (2012) investigated the determinants of bank savings in nigeria as well as examined the impact of bank savings and bank credits on nigeria’s economic growth from 19702006. the empirical results showed a positive http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/fs.ast.prvt.gd.zs http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/fs.ast.prvt.gd.zs copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 5 relationship exists between the lagged values of total private savings, private sector credit, public sector credit, interest rate spread, exchange rates and economic growth. 2.4 theoretical framework few theories on credit have been propounded by scholars but for the purpose of this study, the quantitative easing theory propounded by richard andreas werner was used to explain banking system credit. richard andreas werner is a monetary and development economist, he proposed the term quantitative easing as well as the expression “qe2” referring to the need to implement true quantitative easing as an expansion in credit creation. he has developed a theory of money creation called the quantity theory of credit which is in line with schumpeter’s credit of money. werner has argued since 1992 that the banking sector needs to be reflected appropriately in the macroeconomic models since it is the main creator and allocator of the money supply, through the purpose of credit creation by individual banks. 3. methodology the aim of the research is to examine the effect of bank credits (such as credit to private sector, credit to public sector and prime lending rate) on the nigerian economy (proxied by gdp) using annual data covering the period from 1980 to 2017. 3.1 research design this study employed correlational research design. the choice of this research design is due to the time series nature of the data collected from the period 1980-2017, this types of research design studies the relationship between the dependent variable and independent variables. 3.2 study data study of this nature demands the use of time series secondary data, relating to each of the study’s variables – gross domestic product, credits to private sector, credits to public sector and prime lending rate, spanning a period of 37 years (1980-2017). all data regarding the variables were obtained from the central bank of nigeria (cbn) statistical bulletin and national bureau of statistics of various years under study 3.3empirical model the regression technique is an important tool in econometrics. in general, a regression is concerned with examining the linkages between a given variable and one or more other variables. it is an attempt to describe changes in a variable. it is an attempt to describe changes in variables by reference to changes in other variables. the regression model is stated as r= ∞ +b1x1+ b2x2+-----------bxxx +ɛ ……………………………. (1) this regression model can be interpreted whether a set of bank credits factors has a linkage with economic growth, where r is economic growth proxies by gdp and x’s represents the bank credit variables used in this study. ∞ is the intercept of the regression that is, constant term, b1-bx are the coefficient of variables, and ɛ is the error term.the model was modified as follows; log gdp = ∞ +b1 log cps + b2 log cpr + b3 log plr + ɛ ……………………………… (2) these variables were so chosen because they are majorly the key sectors that could spur economic development. as such, their positive contribution should lead to increase in gross domestic product (gdp). table 1: operational definition of the variables and prior expectation variables measurement source expectation gdp real gdp at constant price cbn statistical bulletin nil cps credits to private sector by banks cbn statistical bulletin positive cpr credits to public sector by banks cbn statistical bulletin positive plr prime lending rate cbn statistical bulletin negative source: researchers’ compilation, 2018 4. presentation and discussion of results table 2: summary result of stationarity test variables 1st difference (p-value) null hypothesis integration order log gdp 0.0000 rejected 1(1) log cps 0.0009 rejected 1(1) log cpr 0.0000 rejected 1(1) log plr 0.0000 rejected 1(1) source: computation of result summary from e-view 10 student edition output. copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 6 from the result, all the study variables are stationary after differencing once (p-values less than 5% significant level), this indicates that the variables are all integrated of order 1(1), a necessary and compulsory pre-condition for the use of vecm, at the first difference where the variables are stationary. 4.1 optimal lag selection in the adoption of econometrics approach such as co-integration test and vecm estimation, the choice of optimal lag is non-negotiable for a reliable result. optimal lag selection can be done with the aid of several criteria individually or combined such as final prediction error (fpe), akaike information criterion (aic), schwarz information criterion (sic). the aic is adopted by this study because according to (sarah, 2008), it yields better results. according to aic selection criterion, the lower the test statistics, the better the model, this study therefore selecting optimum lag of 2. 4.2 co-integration test this is an important analysis that helps to test for a long-run stable relationship among the variables of interest in a study, when a linear combination of variables that is of order 1(1) produces a stationary series than the variables may need to be co-integrated (olokoyo, 2011). table 3: trace statistics and max-eigen co-integration test unrestricted co-integrated rank test (trace) hypothesized no. ce(s) eigen value trace statistics 0.05 critical value prob. maxeigen statistics 0.05 critical value prob. none* 0.926858 117.7923 47.85613 0.0000 86.30680 27.58434 0.0000 at most 1* 0.505747 31.48553 29.79707 0.0317 23.25536 21.13162 0.0248 at most 2 0.148484 8.230172 15.49471 0.4411 5.304336 14.26460 0.7030 at most 3 0.084845 2.925836 3.841466 0.0872 2.925836 3.841466 0.0872 trace test indicates two cointegrating equations at the 0.05 level source: output from eview 10 student edition from table 3 above, both trace and max-eigen criteria agree on the existence of a number of co-integrating equations, which is another necessary pre-condition for the estimation of vecm. the trace and max eigen value suggested 2 co-integrating equations at the 5% significant level. these results imply that the variables of the study in the long run move together. 4.3 vector error correction model estimates with the variables confirmed to be integrated of order 1(1), optimal lag 2 selection made and results of cointegration recommending two co-integrating equation, the estimation of the vecm, using the ordinary least square method to establish the influence of bank credit on the nigerian economy. the results of the vecm are summarized in table 4. table 4: vector error correction estimates variables coefficient standard error t-statistics log c 0.215603 0.08551 2.52150 log cps 0.037639 0.27170 0.13853 log cpr -0.141843 0.24555 -0.57765 log plr -15467.28 106279 -0.14553 r-square 0.769828 adj. r-square 0.665204 f-statistics 7.358058 ecm (-1) -10.454 source: output from eview 10 student edition from the regression results in the table 4 above, the adjusted r2 is 0.665204. this shows that independent variables (log cps, log cpr and log plr) specified in the model explained only about 66.52% of the variations in the dependent variables (log gdp) over the observed years while the remaining 33.48% are explained by all other factors that are not included in our model estimates. the ect (error correction term) or the speed of adjustment towards long run equilibrium with the value given as 104.54, the implication of this is that whenever there are deviations on the nigerian economy (measured by gdp) from an equilibrium path, the model corrects itself at the rate of 104.54% annually. long run causality from the copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 7 three explanatory variables (cps, cpr, and plr) to the criterion variable (gdp) is deemed to have arisen where the ect is both significant and the sign preceding it is negative. the result in table 4 indicates that ect is negative, in other words there is a long run causality running from the bank credits to the nigerian economy. the coefficient of credit to private sector (log cps) is 0.037639. this shows credit to private sector has positive influence on nigerian economy measured by log gdp. the result reveals that credit to private sector has significant influence on the economy given the value of t-statistic (0.13853< 1.96) at two tails. the finding further shows that a unit percent increase in credit to private sector will bring about 3.7639% increase in gdp holding all other factors constant. this finding is in line with the work of (aliero, abdullahi & adamu, 2013) (orji, 2012). the coefficient of credit to public sector (log cpr) is -0.141843. this shows public sector credit has negative influence on nigerian economy measured by log gdp. it also revealed that credit to public sector has insignificant influence on the nigerian economy, given the value of t-statistic (-0.57765<1.96) at two tails. the finding further shows that a unit percent increase in credit to public sector will bring about 14.1843% decrease in gdp holding all other factors constant. this finding is in line with the work of (ibrahim, akano & kazeem, 2015). the coefficient of prime lending rate (log plr) -15467.28 shows that prime lending rate has influence of about 15467.28% on the nigerian economy measured by gdp during the observed years. this implies that a unit percent increase in prime lending rate will bring about 1546% decreases in the economy measured by gdp. this finding is in line with the work of (akpansung & babalola, 2011). the result further shows that tabulated t-statistic (0.14553<1.96) less than calculated value at 5% level of significance. table 5: summary of diagnostic test test p-value centered vif vif 2.85, 2.94, 1.21 jarque-bera 0.29 source: output from eview 10 student edition the variance inflation factor was performed to support the validity of the regression results. since the values 2.85, 2.94 and 1.21 are less than 5, it was therefore concluded that there were no multicollinearity among the variables of the model. jarque-bera test was used to check for the normality of the data. the result shows that the study data are normally distributed given the p-value greater than 5% significance level. 5. recommendations and conclusion credit is an important link in monetary transmission as it finances production, consumption and capital formation, which in turn affect economic growth. especially in developing countries like nigeria, it caters resources need for economic growth. the central bank of nigeria and the government have adopted many links and programs to increase economic growth through the use of bank credit. however, the relationships between private sector credit, public sector credit, prime lending rate and economic growth have not yet been assessed properly in the nigeria context. applying regression approach, the study found that the bank credit to private sector have positive influence on nigeria economy while public sector credit and prime lending rate have negative influence on nigeria economy and also exhibit two cointegration relationship i.e. long run relationship among the variables under study. the empirical results imply that, policy makers should focus attention on long-run policies to promote economic growth such as development of modern banking sector, efficient financial market, infrastructures so as to increase private sector credit and public sector credit which are instrumental to promote growth in the long-run. references abubakar, a., & gani, i. m. 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(1973). financial deepening in economic development .london: oxford university press. yakubu, z. and affoi, a.y. an analysis of commercial banks’ credit on economic growth in nigeria.current research journal of economic theory. june, 2014, 6 (2): 11-15. copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. this is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 2; 2020 issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 published by cribfb, usa 1 the impact of covid -19 pandemic on the economic growth in bangladesh: a conceptual review md. shahbub alam lecturer faculty of business administration islamic university, kusthia, bangladesh e-mail: shahbub.ais07@gmail.com md. jafor ali lecturer faculty of business administration islamic university, kusthia, bangladesh e-mail: jaforkb@gmail.com dr. abul bashar bhuiyan associate professor faculty of business and accountancy university of selangor, shah alam, malaysia e-mail: bashariuk@gmail.com dr. mohammad solaiman associate professor department of marketing comilla university, cumilla, bangladesh e-mail: solaimanmktgcou@yahoo.com dr. mohammad abdur rahman assistant professor school of business administration faculty of business and entrepreneurship daffodil international university, dhaka, bangladesh e-mail: rahman@diu.edu.bd abstract since the outburst of covid-19 in china, the world economy is passing in a turmoil situation. undeniably the economy of bangladesh is also grappled by the severe public health crisis of the covid-19. as the public health emergency is heavily interconnected with economic affairs, it has impacted each of the pillars of the economy of bangladesh. the main purpose of this paper is to make evaluations of the potential impact of the covid-19 pandemic on the economy of bangladesh. this study is based on an empirical review of the recent study works, reports, working papers of home, and abroad regarding economic crisis. the review findings of the paper revealed that the covid-19 pandemic have significant impacts on the different indicators mailto:shahbub.ais07@gmail.com mailto:jaforkb@gmail.com mailto:bashariuk@gmail.com mailto:solaimanmktgcou@yahoo.com mailto:rahman@diu.edu.bd https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 2; 2020 2 of the economy of bangladesh especially, readymade garments sector, foreign remittance, bank and financial institutions, food and agricultures, local trade, foreign trade (export and import), gdp (gross domestic product), sdgs (sustainable development goal), government revenue and employment etc. this study suggested that as covid-19 still surfacing all over the world so some steps should be ensured by the government agencies of bangladesh to mitigate possible threats for the economy. keywords: covid-19, impact, economy of bangladesh, sdgs. introduction the novel coronavirus disease that was first reported in wuhan, china in december 2019 (covid-19) is quickly spreading around the world. as of march 27, 2020, the total number of cases exceeds 460,000 and the disease has claimed more than 20,000 lives globally. since march 2020, while new cases in china appear to have settled down, the number of cases is exponentially growing in the rest of the world(toda, 2020). the 20th century witnessed two pandemics since the historic ‘spanish influenza’ of 1918: the ‘asian flu’ of 1957 and the ‘hong kong flu’ of 1968. the 21st century has seen four pandemic outbreaks: n1h1 in 2009 (‘bird flu’), severe acute respiratory syndrome (sars) in 2002, middle east respiratory syndrome (mers) in 2012, and ebola which peaked in 2013-14. but this covid-19 pandemic is different, economically speaking hit nations both economically dominant nations as well as economically dependent nations. the number of covid-19 case is already many fold larger than the number of sars cases in the previous pandemic(baldwin et al., n.d.). this already focused on that covid-19 is spreading human suffering worldwide. as the public health crisis is highly associated with economic affairs as like as global public health, economy, and livelihood issues, it has grappled the global economy exponentially towards the dramatic downturn that pushed it into the worst recession after the great depression of the 1930s (ali, bhuiyan, zulkifli, & hassan, 2020). it is most definitely spreading economic suffering worldwide. the virus may be as contagious economically as it is medically(baldwin et al., n.d.). the potential impact of covid19 on global monetary poverty through per capita household income or consumption contraction. the impact will spread on among low, medium, and high-income people(sumner et al., 2020). the other influential discussions over monetary and fiscal policy responses to the covid-19 epidemic and the ensuing economic fallout (guerrieri et al., 2020). the looming economic crisis may create panic, mass unemployment, poverty, and homelessness. the us already claimed a vast increase in unemployment (4.6 million) during the coronavirus emergency and speculated that lockdown will cause more deaths than covid-19 itself amid the recession (reger et al., 2020). the coronavirus disease (covid-19) has critically impacted global health systems and economies, especially in developing countries. those countries have been struggling to address the preexisting burden of diseases with limited resources, which will become even more challenging during covid-19. the economic implications related to covid-19 in those countries include a high cost of care, market failures in pluralistic health systems, high out-of-pocket expenses, the added burden of noncommunicable diseases, missed economic opportunities, and socioeconomic consequences like unemployment and poverty (rodela et al., 2020). the global pandemic has also made an impact on the overpopulated developing country bangladesh. in bangladesh, the institute of epidemiology, disease control and research (iedcr) has reported the first 3 cases of https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 2; 2020 3 coronavirus on 8 march 2020. currently, the country has a total of 3,37,520 coronavirus cases with 4,733 deaths (september 14, 2020)(iedcr). to combat, bangladesh has employed international travel bans and a gradual lockdown. however, countries like bangladesh are at a greater risk because of large population density, inadequate infrastructure, and healthcare systems to provide the required support(ma et al., 2020). bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries due to high population density (170 million people in 147,000 sq.km), poor health care systems, and a weak economy. in recent years, bangladesh's economy has been growing well with a gdp growth rate of more than 7.5%, however, 20% of the population is poor. nevertheless, because of the rapid spread of the covid-19, bangladesh's economy has already started taking a big hit. the nationwide shutdown has already suspended almost all economic activities except agriculture and made thousands of employments at risk. international trade orders, especially in ready-made garments industries, are being greatly canceled (m. t. islam et al., 2020). most of the people in our country live below the poverty line. due to lockdown since march 8, 2020, the people are passing an overwhelmingly stressful moment. if the lockdown process continues for longer many people would face severe starvation. the economic strength of the country is also deteriorating day by day. the rate of unemployment increases day by day. though govt. takes initiatives to tackle these pandemic situations by various promotional packages to the entrepreneur, but the recent situation has not improved so much because of banning international trade. our most promising export sectors e.g. labor; garments, fish, etc. are passing hazardous moments. in such circumstances, this paper tries to summarizes of available resources to review of possible impacts of covid 19 on the economic indicators in bangladesh, especially readymade garments, foreign remittance, local trade, international trade, government revenue, employment, financial institutions, production, and distributions due to the isolation, quarantine, distancing, and shutdown measures. therefore, the main purpose of this study is to make review and evaluations of the potential impact of covid-19 on the economy of bangladesh. background of the study concept of the covid -19 pandemic since december, 2019, a novel coronavirus disease 2 (sars-cov-2) known as covid-19, a group of acute respiratory diseases with never disclosed and unknown etiology, was first identified in 1 man in wuhan, the capital of the hubei province in the people's republic of china the novel coronavirus disease that was first reported in wuhan, china in december 2019 (covid-19) is quickly spreading around the world. as of march 27, 2020, the total number of cases exceeds 460,000 and the disease has claimed more than 20,000 lives globally. since march 2020, while new cases in china appear to have settled down, the number of cases is exponentially growing in the rest of the world(toda, 2020). the 20th century witnessed two pandemics since the historic ‘spanish influenza’ of 1918: the ‘asian flu’ of 1957 and the ‘hong kong flu’ of 1968. the 21st century has seen four pandemic outbreaks: n1h1 in 2009 (‘bird flu’), severe acute respiratory syndrome (sars) in 2002, middle east respiratory syndrome (mers) in 2012, and ebola which peaked in 2013-14. but this covid-19 pandemic is different, economically speaking hit nations both economically dominant nations as well as economically dependent nations. however, the number of covid-19 case is already many fold larger than the number of sars cases in the previous pandemic(baldwin et al., n.d.). this already focused on that covid-19 is spreading human suffering worldwide. as the public health crisis is highly https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 2; 2020 4 associated with economic affairs as like as global public health, economy, and livelihood issues, it has grappled the global economy exponentially towards the dramatic downturn that pushed it into the worst recession after the great depression of the 1930s (ali, bhuiyan, & zulkifli), it is most definitely spreading economic suffering worldwide. the virus may be as contagious economically as it is medically (baldwin et al., n.d.). the potential impact of covid-19 on global monetary poverty through per capita household income or consumption contraction. the impact will spread on among low, medium, and high-income people(sumner et al., 2020). the other influential discussions over monetary and fiscal policy responses to the covid-19 epidemic and the ensuing economic fallout (guerrieri et al., 2020). the covid -19 pandemic and interconnected global economy since the covid-19 epidemic outraises, there has affected millions of people and claimed the lives of more than three hundred thousand people around the world. likewise, the current covid19 epidemic has affected all walks of life and businesses in several ways, including a sharp drop in domestic demand, supply disruptions, a reduction in tourism and travel. scarcity of trade and production and impacts on health (abiad et al., 2020; hutt, 2020; report, 2020). even the pandemic has become the primary concern for the survival of humanity in the world. while the devastation of the covid-19 pandemic is still elusive, defeating this pandemic requires coordinated and coordinated efforts globally to build a resilient and sustainable public health system and an economic system to recover. as international interdependence has flourished, leading indicative acts such as agriculture, economy, education, energy, environment, sociopolitics, health, infrastructure, politics international, population and human development, etc. interact to ensure sustainable and inclusive growth for a shared experience and vision of prosperity among states. no state alone can achieve sustainable human and social development in this era of globalization. amid the significant public health risk covid-19 poses to the world, the world health organization (who) has declared a public health emergency of international concern to coordinate international responses to the disease. however, it is certainly a global crisis because no country is immune to this health and economic disaster. among the interconnected indicators, the episode of global health increased the participation rate and affected all other factors of globalization linked to the international. china's global role and large-scale trade in the world are important contributors to the spread of the covid-19 pandemic (wong, leo & tan, 2020). in addition, the global health and economy, among others, are being hit hard by the covid-19 pandemic, as it is the boom and the trap of globalization. this global health issue comes with a high degree of uncertainty, such as longer quarantines, travel restrictions, closures of non-essential restaurants and businesses, social remote ordering, lockdowns, and more. regarding the severity, magnitude and extent of the problem. consequences of the covid-19 pandemic. thus, global health risks and economic consequences are certainly the consequences of globalization and the entire nation must do everything in its power to address them. public health crises, infections and diseases, and innovation in therapeutic medicine and vaccines go beyond individuals and their families to involve and influence entire societies, their institutions and their global interrelations and estimations (kohlscheen, mojon & rees, 2020). methodology of the study the main purpose of this study is to assess and assess the potential impact of the covid-19 pandemic on the economy of bangladesh. this study is based on an empirical overview of recent https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 2; 2020 5 study work, reports, domestic and foreign working papers on the economic crisis. therefore, the study uses available resources to investigate the potential impact of the 'covid 19 pandemic and various economic indicators, notably ready-to-wear, remittances abroad, local trade, international trade, government revenues, employment, financial institutions, manufacturing and distributions because of isolation, quarantine, dissociate and shutdown measures in bangladesh. the study collected most of the review material, exploring the covers of google scholar, proquest and scopus, and other online resources, etc. review findings impact of covid-19 on the economy of bangladesh the covid-19 has already affected 208 countries and regions in the world. economically developed countries are failed to tackle this pandemic situation. in comparing developed countries, the developing and poor countries are unable to meet this condition. bangladesh is the most densely populated country in the world and its medical facilities are so limited that it is not possible to provide medical facilities to large populations. till now, there is no vaccination for this virus. only isolation and lockdown are the means to stop the spread of this deadly virus. due to lockdown and isolation, the world economy is at a turmoil stage. the economy of bangladesh is seriously affected because of its small number of economic attributes to meet the demand for a huge population. if this lockdown and isolation period continues for a longer period, the people of this nation will die to starve. the possible negative economic impact of covid-19 covers as under. readymade garments sector the readymade garments sector plays a vital role in the rapidly developing economy of bangladesh. the readymade garments industries are the principal source of foreign exchange earnings. the readymade garments sector covers more than 85% of total export earnings. more than four million workers are employed in the rmg industries, and more than 85% are illiterate women from rural villages (wikipedia). due to the commencement of covid-19, already the bangladesh readymade garments (rmg) industry has received work order cancellations of nearly $3 billion. around 2 million workers in the industries will be affected by this. around 4 million people are directly engaged with the rmg sector e.g. backward linkage industries, accessories and packaging factories, and the transportation sector. the government has already declared a tk-50.00 billion incentive packages to mitigate the losses in the rmg sector. however, if the outbreak prolongs it will be difficult for the government to handle the situation and the result of this will be catastrophic as more than 85 percent of the country's export earnings come through the rmg sector. foreign remittance remittance is the lifeblood of many developing countries in the world like bangladesh. the country is embraced with a huge population, but this population is assets for the country because they are well known as a remittance fighter and worked in different parts of the world. bangladesh is now one of the largest recipients of remittance with almost $15.3 billion in 2018. it was the third-highest recipient of remittance in south asia in 2018. bangladesh bureau of statistics revealed that 33.45% of remittances go to investment and 13.74% of remittances go to savings (wikipedia). due covid-19 pandemic outbreak from january 2020 onwards has seemingly changed many parameters in the world economy, society, politics, and culture. the https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 2; 2020 6 remittance sending behavior, trends, volumes are changing day by day (bmg). however, vulnerability is often higher among migrant workers, and it curbs the capability to send remittances. during the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, we have observed some resilience in remittances flows in certain corridors (sirkeci et al., 2012). orozco reported about a 10% drop in remittances in that period while estimating about a 3% drop due to the covid-19 pandemic (orozco). the lockdowns in many countries will cause migrant workers jobs as well as preventing them to travel back and forth to home countries (williams., 2020). remittance flows in 2020 to lowand middle-income countries (lmics) are projected to fall by 19.7 percent to usd 445 billion, one of the sharpest declines in recent history. the world bank projects a decline of remittance flows across all regions: europe and central asia (-27.5%); sub-saharan africa (-23.1%), south asia (-22.1%), the middle east and north africa (-19.6%), latin america, and the caribbean (-19.3%), and east asia and the pacific (-13%) (world bank, 2020). the economy largely depends on foreign remittance (wikipedia). from march to april due covid-19 crisis near about 9 million people backed to bangladesh as a result of the flow of remittance tremendously decreasing in the last few months. the foreign remittance will come down and thus it will hit the foreign reserves of the country. the amount of foreign remittance in july 2019 was tk. 135.00 billion and each month the flow of remittance declining. the month of march, april, and may 2020 the flow of remittance significantly decreased and at the same time, a large number of people unemployed in abroad, and most of them were backed in the home. table 1. flow of foreign remittance. (tk. in billion) months july,1 9 aug se pt oct no v dec jan,20 feb mar apr may jun amt. 135 122 .08 12 4.8 13 9 13 .85 143 .62 139 .10 123 .36 108 .42 92 .85 127 .82 155 .62 source: bangladesh bank the flow of remittance declined from january 2010 to february 2010 11.29%, february to march 12.11%, march to april 14.87%. though the flow of remittance slightly improving in may and june, it does not show a positive sign, if worldwide locked down continued in the next months the flow of remittance will be declined. bank and financial institutions bangladesh is a developing country with an impoverished banking system with fifty-nine commercial banks, thirty-four non-banking financial institutions, and sixty-two insurance companies (wikipedia). these institutions are highly interdependent with each other and dependent on the industrial sector of bangladesh. due to the outbreak of covid-19 the banking industry is in critical stages for the mounting of non-performing loans (npls). if the rmg industry and its backward linkage industries fail, then the entire banking system will collapse. the commercial banks, non-banking financial institutions, and general insurance companies are heavily relying on garments and related industries for their business. in the long run, the amount of deposit, as well as the investment, will decrease dramatically and these institutions will not https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 2; 2020 7 able to pay enough to its employees. many employees will lose their job and the number of banks and financial institutions will collapse. the current scenario of non-performing loans indicates horrible situations in the banking sectors. in july 2019 the non -performing loan ratio stood-11.69%, in october 2019 the ratio was 11.99%, in january 2020 the ratio was 9.30%, and in march the ratio was 9 % (bb). food and agricultures bangladesh is a lower-middle-income country in south asia, agriculture plays a key role as the main supplier of food, source of livelihood, growth, and employment. almost half of bangladeshis are employed in the agriculture sector. during the last decades, the self-sufficiency perspective in rice has become dominant in the food security and agriculture policy (fao). since from out-break of covid-19, various protection measures have been taken by the government of bangladesh such as border closures, restrictions of movement, closures of restaurants, community quarantines, and market, supply chain, and trade disruptions. as a result, agricultural production, food supply, and demand for the agricultural product have been affected significantly. farmers are vulnerable as they are hindered from working on their land and accessing markets to sell their products or buy seeds and other essential inputs. there huge shortage of laborers as a result the production and distribution process is now the eve of destruction. the disruptions of the supply chain create frustration among all classes of people. the price hike is now common scenarios because of blockages to transport routes, transport restrictions and quarantine measures, shortages of labor, and spikes in product prices. the supply of fresh foods is now rare and increased levels of food loss and waste. if this situation continues the agricultural sector will face great difficulty. local trade the economy of bangladesh is a developing market economy. it is the 39th largest in the world in nominal terms and 30th largest by purchasing power parity. the country mainly depends on exporting readymade garments items and produces pharmaceutical products, electronics, automobiles, bicycles, leather products, jute-oriented products, paper, plastic, cement, tea, natural gas, etc. (wikipedia). there is a proverb in investment that never puts all your eggs in a single basket. bangladesh never obeys this proverb most of the businessmen in this country comfort to investment in the garments industry. if the garment sector collapses the entire economy, there are many backward linkage industries depends on garment industries and many people employed in garment-based industries. except for garment industries, some large business enterprises operated also facing trouble to import raw material and export finished goods. the sales volume of such industries declining day by day such as steel, cement, plywood, bicycle, metal, gold, hotel, transport, etc. there are many smes operated in our country and most of them are controlled over by women are now passing a critical moment the sales volume is now so minimal that these sector fails to meet its operational costs. foreign trade (export and import) bangladesh is in southern asia, bordering the bay of bengal, between myanmar and india. the country has experienced rapid economic growth in recent years mainly driven by exports of readymade garments and remittance from migrant workers. (intracen.org). the country is largely depended on imported products from neighboring countries. after the outbreak of covid-19, the import and export-oriented companies are also at risk. the chattogram port is the main port in https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 2; 2020 8 bangladesh. almost 92 percent of import-export activities are performed through this port, reported that imports and exports through this port declined in march by over 12 percent and 26 percent. business people fear the country's imports and exports will further decrease in the coming days because of the worsened coronavirus situation. the chattogram custom house earns most of its revenue through taxation. according to the chattogram customs, in march, the country imported goods worth tk 31,617 crores as per the customs value – about tk 4,500 crores less than that in the previous month. in the meantime, exports of almost all products, including the top earner ready-made garments fell significantly, too. compared to those in february, exports in march earned tk 5,392 crores less. last month, the country exported goods worth tk 14,785 crores. last month, exports of goods, in quantity, were around 21 percent lower than those in february. (mincom.) the following chart shows the import-export position of the last year in bangladesh. table 2. flow of exports earning. (usd in millions) months july,19 aug sept oct nov dec jan,20 feb mar apr may jun amt. 3581 .48 3213 .54 3145 .58 3711 .18 3421 .98 3426 .11 3617 .31 3322 .36 2732 .00 520 .01 1465 .30 2714 .95 source: bangladesh bank table 3. flow of imports earning. (usd in millions) months july,19 aug sept oct nov dec jan,20 feb mar apr may jun amt. 5247 .10 4072 .70 5004 .20 5279 .30 4392 .40 5254 .20 5334 .10 4723 .70 4277 .20 2858 .50 3533 .40 4807 .90 source: bangladesh bank gdp (gross domestic product) a huge number of people in bangladesh live from hand to mouth. the country will fall into a really difficult situation if the country remains locked down for a longer period. consistent high growth has been unable to create enough jobs in the economy. due to the inequality of income and asset distribution, the advantages of higher gdp growth are not evident in society. on april 5, the government unveiled a tk 72,750 crore stimulus package, including the previously declared tk 5,000 crore package, to address the economic impacts of the coronavirus outbreak. the amount is nearly 2.52 percent of the country’s gdp. according to the forecast released by the economist intelligence unit on 26 march, the global economy is expected to contract by 2.2% in 2020. these effects are expected to be more pronounced in major g20 economies, such as germany, italy, the united kingdom, and the us – all countries that are major markets for bangladesh's most vital tradable good: readymade garments. that is why bangladesh will face a greater challenge to attain its expected gdp next year. the growth rate of gdp may be declined https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 2; 2020 9 by at least 2.0% to 2.5%. recently adb estimated that the gdp growth of bangladesh may not exceed 4.5% this year. sdgs (sustainable development goal) bangladesh will also face difficulty to attain sdgs goal. the covid-19 not only impacts in the short-run but also the long-run. the impact on the sdgs could be threefold: first, it will erase some of the commendable achievements made so far regarding some goals which have been directly affected; second, it will slow down the progress of some other goals in the coming months due to resetting of priorities; and third, resources might be reallocated to the immediate priority sectors. all these might cause a delay in the achievement of sdgs; some analysts are even foreseeing a re-evaluation of the timeline for achieving sdgs. as far as the seventeen goals are concerned, the impact can be of two types: explicit and implicit. the goals which are most likely to be explicitly affected are goal 1: no poverty; goal 2: zero hunger; goal 3: good health and well-being; goal 4: quality education; goal 8: decent work and economic growth; goal 10: reduced inequality. the forecast mentioned in para-2 is clear indications of that. the goals which might suffer implicitly due to divergence in the priorities are goal 5: gender equality; goal 6: clean water and sanitation; goal 7: affordable and clean energy; goal 9: industry, innovation, and infrastructure; goal 11: sustainable cities and communities; goal 13: climate action; goal 14: life below water; goal 15: life on land; goal 16: peace and justice strong institutions. restrictions on worldwide economic activities may lead to some relief for nature, therefore making some improvement relating to sdg no 13, 14, and 15. these, however, may not be enough to compensate substantially for the overall impact. government revenue tax is the principal source of government revenue. the rest of the revenue comes from non-tax sources like fees, charges, tolls, etc. the trend of revenue mobilization for the period from fy2014-15 to fy2018-19 is presented below: table 4. revenue receipt (amt. in crore) particulars 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 total revenue 163371 177400 201210 259454 316599 tax revenue 140676 155400 178075 232202 28959 non-tax revenue 22695 22000 23135 27252 27000 source: bangladesh economic review 2019 government revenues in bangladesh increased in 2018-19 income year to 2017-18 income year. due to the decline in imports and exports, the revenue collection of the government already decreased. recently the government implements a new income tax policy these may not effective to collect enough tax from the public in a crisis moment. there is no doubt that the revenue receipt will decline in 2019-2020 income year. employment for that indicator, we provide data for bangladesh from 1991 to 2019. the average value for bangladesh during that period was 3.61 percent with a minimum of 2.2 percent in 1991 and a https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 2; 2020 10 maximum of 5 percent in 2009. the latest value from 2019 is 4.19 percent. for comparison, the world average in 2019 based on 182 countries is 7.04 percent. the average for 2019 based on 182 countries was 7.04 percent. the highest value was in south africa: 28.18 percent and the lowest value was in qatar: 0.09 percent. the indicator is available from 1991 to 2019. international labor organization (ilo) has said the employment rate in bangladesh and other countries in the region exceeded the global average and was expected to remain so in the coming years because of the government's social protection measures. the regional unemployment rate (in asia and pacific countries including bangladesh) is projected to remain at around 3.6% until 2020, below the global average, the ilo said in its world employment and social outlook: trends 2019 (weso), released recently, reports bss. it said the global average of the unemployment rate was 5.6% while the figure was around 3.6% in bangladesh and the other asia and pacific nations. ilo attributed bangladesh’s better employment scenario to significant social protection measures while the countries with higher poverty rates lacked such measures. from the above data and predication of ilo, it seems that bangladesh may not face a critical situation in the coid-19 pandemic. but the scenarios are different a large number of people already lost their jobs, salaries of the employees cut down significantly, employees lacked in job security, deprived of fair payment, increasing frustration among employees, increasing job shifting, a huge number of workers moved to agricultural sectors, child labor increased day by day, decreasing better quality jobs, work environment deteriorating day by day. it should be very difficult for bangladesh to meet the sustainable development goals (sdgs) by 2030. it needs to ramp up its efforts on improving social protection, skills training, and occupational safety and health. bangladesh needs to create millions of decent and sustainable jobs each year if it wants to reduce poverty and reach middle-income status. summarization of review findings undeniably, the covid-19 pandemic is taking an unprecedented toll on global economy along with public health and livelihood issues. as in the case of each of pillars of the economy of bangladesh are sternly battered and consequently it will take times to get back usual pace in economic activities. the readymade garments industries, the biggest export earnings sector, are highly shaken due to isolation, lockdown, travel ban, and supply chain disruption worldwide. for the betterment of the rmg sectors, the government already declared a stimulus package. government, immediately, should take comprehensive support plan until this crisis removes to make this sector sustainable. the government may diversify the export basket, not depends on rmg sectors, because rmg earn lion part of its total export earnings. moreover, the effects of covid-19 pandemic on the agrarian economic growth of bangladesh witness a shocking slow down and farmers, workers; entrepreneurs related to agro-based products are likely to challenge an irreparable loss and identity crisis. the agro sector of bangladesh has a good impact on the country’s gross domestic product (gdp). as such, authorities need to provide adequate financial, logistic and motivational supports so that they might keep courage and reinvest in their workplaces accordingly. bangladesh government has taken some practical initiatives and announced incentive packages of tk. 50,000 million for providing financial support for the farmers in the rural areas for boosting up agricultural production. furthermore, the millions of bangladeshi skilled and unskilled remittance earners working worldwide severely impacted (i.e. about 0.50 million of workers returned to bangladesh) by the covid-19 pandemic for draconian movement control measure, lockdown, travel ban, and factory closure. authorities need give financial support for these returned https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 2; 2020 11 expatriates workers and make them engage in production or entrepreneurial activities. to ensure a smooth flow of foreign remittance in future government may implement various strategies e.g. ensure export of human resources with safety and security by government agencies, searching for new labor markets, improving diplomatic relationships with importers countries, ensure compensatory packages for wage earners. alike other sectors, the pandemic hardly stunned the money market and stock market for work station closure and deteriorated the financial health of the both market. along with above, micro, small and medium scale enterprise (msme) or backward linkage enterprises is seriously affected by supply chain disruption, lockdown, and factory closure. many the workforces of bangladesh are engaged in informal sector are mostly affected alongside formal sector employees due to the covid-19 pandemic. social safety programs such as the vulnerable group feeding and vulnerable group development for the next years must be extended by the government to keep the livelihood of layman sustainable. as bangladesh is the fastest growing developing country, its gross domestic products (gdp) annual development program (adp), fiscal policy, and sustainable development goal (sdg) are profoundly hampered by the covid-19 pandemic. furthermore, the magnitude of the economic losses will depend on how the outbreak evolves as any pandemic diseases and its economic consequences are vastly ambiguous which makes it challenging for policymakers to work out an axiomatic and appropriate macroeconomic policy guideline. so, effective policies, initiatives, coordination and awareness buildup are inevitable to avert the severity of the crises to overcome this pandemic, and an unprecedented wake-up call and coordinated efforts are inevitable governments, and private organizations. conclusions and recommendations since from outbreak of covid-19 at wuhan, china as on december 1, 2019, now spread the whole globe with devastating mode. every part of the world is now panicked to tackle contagious diseases. we already face an economic slowdown not only in third world countries but also in first world countries. it is assumed if such situations continue there might be a recession in the long term. like other developing counties bangladesh will fall a great difficulty because this country largely depends on foreign remittance and exporting readymade garments. there is many remittance fighters moved in bangladesh and the exportation of human power is stopped. the exportation of readymade garments declined day by day. a huge number of the population is now unemployed and increasing depression among this unemployed. it is still unknown when the devastating manner of covid-19 will end, so all arms of government and other agencies should take effective policies, initiatives, coordination and awareness buildup to avert the severity of the crises and be proactive in soothing possible negative impacts in near future. the study also revealed that the magnitude of the economic losses will depend on how the outbreak evolves as any pandemic diseases and its economic consequences are vastly ambiguous which makes it challenging for policymakers to work out an axiomatic and appropriate macroeconomic policy guideline. therefore, right and effective policies, initiatives, coordination and awareness buildup are inevitable to avert the severity of the crises to overcome this pandemic, and an unprecedented wake-up call and coordinated efforts are inevitable governments, and private organizations. finally, the study suggested that as covid-19 still surfacing all over the world so some steps should be ensured by the government agencies of bangladesh to mitigate possible threats for the economy. https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 2; 2020 12 references ali, m. j., bhuiyan, a. b., zulkifli, n., & hassan, m. k. (2020). the covid-19 pandemic: conceptual model for the global economic impacts and recovery. available at ssrn: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3656243. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3656243 baldwin, r., weder, b., & mauro, d. (n.d.). economics in the time of covid-19. in primo-europe.eu. retrieved may 1, 2020, from www.cepr.org guerrieri, v., lorenzoni, g., straub, l., & werning, h. i. (2020). macroeconomic implications of covid-19: can negative supply shocks cause demand shortages? https://www.nber.org/papers/w26918 islam, m. s., irana ira, j., ariful kabir, k. m., & kamrujjaman, m. (2020). covid-19 epidemic compartments model and bangladesh. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202004.0193.v1 islam, m. t., kumar talukder, a., siddiqui, n., islam, t., & islam, m. t. (2020). tackling the pandemic covid-19: the bangladesh perspective. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202004.0384.v1 ma, y., zhao, y., liu, j., he, x., wang, b., fu, s., yan, j., niu, j., & luo, b. (2020). effects of temperature variation and humidity on the mortality of covid-19 in wuhan. medrxiv.org. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.15.20036426 reger, m. a., stanley, i. h., & joiner, t. e. (2020). suicide mortality and coronavirus disease 2019 a perfect storm? in jama psychiatry. american medical association. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2020.1060 rodela, t., tasnim, s., mazumder, h., & faizah, f. (2020). economic impacts of coronavirus disease (covid-19) in developing countries. https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/wygpk/ sumner, a., hoy, c., & ortiz-juarez, e. (2020). wider working paper 2020/43-estimates of the impact of covid-19 on global poverty. indiaenvironmentportal.org.in. https://doi.org/10.35188/unu-wider/2020/800-9 toda, a. a. (2020). susceptible-infected-recovered (sir) dynamics of covid-19 and economic impact. http://arxiv.org/abs/2003.11221 business media georgia. available at: https://bm.ge/en/article/on-the-background-of-coronavirusremittances-up-in-georgia--statistics-/51189 sirkeci, i., cohen, j. h., & ratha, d. (eds.). (2012). migration and remittances during the global financial crisis and beyond. washington, dc: the world bank. orozco, manuel (2020). migrants and the impact of the covid-19 pandemic on remittances, available at: https://www.lac.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/lac/documents/media/2020_ article _on_migrants _and_the_impact_of_covid 19_on_remittances.pdf?time=1584982389407 [accessed: 10/04/2020] williams, a. (2020). coronavirus will hit economies across all ebrd regions, available at:https://www.ebrd.com/news/2020/-coronavirus-will-hit-economies-across-all-ebrd-regions www. wikipedia.com www.fao.org www.intracen.org www.mincom.gov.bd copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. this is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) https://ssrn.com/abstract=3656243 http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3656243 american economic & social review; vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 published by centre for research on islamic banking & finance and business 6 the path to inclusive growth in nigeria: are people with disabilities carried along? emmanuel o. okon1 1department of economics, kogi state university, anyigba, kogi state, nigeria correspondence: department of economics, kogi state university, anyigba, kogi state, nigeria, e-mail: tonydom57@yahoo.com. tel: +2348023275716 received: january 2, 2018 accepted: january 4, 2018 online published: january 9, 2018 abstract the growing disconnect between the improving macro-economic indicators and the growing descent into poverty of over 170 million nigerians is clearly anindicative of the fact that economic growth in nigeria is non-inclusive as the country may have only attained what is known as growth without development. using a purely descriptive and analytical methodology, this paper shows that inclusive growth is the growth that generates employment opportunities and reduces the depth and severity of the incidence of poverty. however, people with disability have in many cases been denied of job opportunities in nigeria. this paper argues that the country cannot have inclusive growth unless disability is made an integral part of her growth. considering that the economic inclusion of people with disabilities is a cross-cutting issue, successful results require complementary activities in multiple sectors. however, inclusion of people with disabilities in work/employment can lead to greater economic self-sufficiency. though it should not be promoted as the only option for economic inclusion, self-employment can be a good alternative, especially in a country like nigeria where there is a general dearth of opportunities for formal sector jobs. in that regard, this paper suggests that microfinance institutions should extend credit and other financial services for self-employment of people with disabilities. better still, specialized microfinance should be established for people with disabilities to provide supporting or complementary services. keywords: poverty, disabilities, people with disabilities, inclusive growth, nigeria. 1. introduction located in the continent of africa on the west coast, nigeria covers 910,768 square kilometers of land and 13,000 square kilometers of water, making it the 32nd largest nation in the world with a total area of 923,768 square kilometers (worldatlas.com, 2016). it lies on latitudes 4° north of the equator and latitudes 3° and 14° on the east of the greenwich meridian. shares boundaries with the republics of benin and niger in the west, cameroon in the east, niger and chad in the north and the gulf of guinea in the south (nnpcgroup.com, n.d.). the country‟s economic aspirations have remained that of altering the structure of production and consumption patterns, diversifying the economic base and reducing dependence on oil, with the aim of putting the economy on a part of sustainable, all-inclusive and non-inflationary growth. the implication of this is that while rapid growth in output, as measured by the real gross domestic product (gdp), is important, the transformation of the various sectors of the economy is even more critical. this is consistent with the growth aspirations of most developing countries, as the structure of the economy is expected to change as growth progresses. successive governments in nigeria have since independence in 1960, pursued the goal of structural changes without much success. the growth dynamics have been propelled by the existence and exploitation of natural resources and primary products. initially, the agricultural sector, driven by the demand for food and cash crops production was at the centre of the growth process, contributing 54.7 per cent to the gdp during the 1960s (kelikume, 2015). the second decade of independence saw the emergence of the oil industry as the main driver of growth. since then, the economy has mainly gyrated with the boom-burst cycles of the oil industry. government expenditure outlays that are dependent on oil revenues have more or less dictated the pace of growth of the economy. looking back, it is clear http://www.worldatlas.com/webimage/countrys/af.htm http://www.worldatlas.com/webimage/countrys/africa/ng.htm www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 7 that the economy has not actually performed to its full potential, particularly in the face of its rising population. the nigerian economy has grossly underperformed relative to her enormous resource endowment and her peer nations. it has the 6th largest gas reserves and the 8th largest crude oil reserves in the world. it is endowed in commercial quantities with about 37 solid mineral types and has a population of over 170 million people. yet economic performance has been rather weak and does not reflect these endowments. compared with the emerging asian countries, notably, thailand, malaysia , china, india and indonesia that were far behind nigeria in terms of gdp per capita in 1970, these countries have transformed their economies and are not only miles ahead of nigeria, but are also major players on the global economic arena. the major factors accounting for the relative decline of the country‟s economic fortunes are easily identifiable as political instability, lack of focused and visionary leadership, economic mismanagement and corruption. prolonged period of military rule stifled economic and social progress, particularly in the three decades of 1970s to 1990s. during these years, resources were plundered, social values were debased, and unemployment rose astronomically with concomitant increase in crime rate. however, since 1999 economic growth in nigeria has risen substantially, with annual average of 7.4 per cent in the last decade (kelikume, 2015) (see table 1 in appendix for economic indicator for nigeria in 20015). but the growth has not been inclusive, broad-based and transformational. the implication of this trend is that economic growth in nigeria has not resulted in the desired structural changes that would make manufacturing the engine of growth, create employment, promote technological development and induce poverty alleviation. available data has put the national poverty level at 54.4 per cent (kelikume, 2015). similarly, there has been rising unemployment with the current level put at 19.7 per cent by the national bureau of statistics (nbs) (kelikume, 2015). the united nations estimates that 10–12 per cent of the world‟s population, over 600 million people, has some form of disability (world bank (2006).of this total, 80 per cent live in low-income countries (who (2005). about 82 per cent of them live below the poverty line (handicap international and blindenmission, 2006). it is estimated that 80 per cent of all people with disabilities of working age are unemployed (harris, 1997). according to 2006 national population census, there are more than 19million persons with disabilities in nigeria a population equal to that of a megacity like lagos state (adeyanju, 2009). disability is both a cause and a consequence of poverty. there is a strong relationship between disability and poverty with a cyclical tendency – poverty makes people more vulnerable to disability and disability reinforces and deepens poverty. disability is an important factor, along with gender, race and caste, that interacts to impoverish people and keep them poor (mji et al, 2009). people with disability are often excluded from the mainstream of society, and hence, may not contribute to the development of the society at all or optimally. the world bank considers that leaving people with disabilities outside the economy translates into a forgone gdp of about 5–7 per cent (dfid, 2000).it is increasingly being recognized that bringing people with disabilities into the development mainstream will have a significant effect in any plan to cut poverty in the developing world (wolfensohn, 2003). against this background, this paper aims at examining the conditions of people with disability with a view to proposing measures for delivering inclusive growth to achieve economic development. this paper has been divided into five sections. section 1 is the introductory section and contains the objective of the paper. section 2 presents conceptual issues and literature review. section 3 is devoted to the discussion of the global prevalence of disability; people with disabilities in nigeria; situation of pwd in nigeria; economic inclusion of people with disability in the scheme of growth in nigeriaemployment perspectives. section 4 presents the way forward for nigeria. the conclusion is presented in section 5. 2. concept of inclusive growth according to microsoft encarta (2009) the word “inclusive” refers to including many things or everything, people of all kind, non-discriminatory. it is synonymous to comprehensive, wide-ranging, all encompassing, complete and broad. “growth” refers to the process of becoming larger and more mature, increase in number, size, power or intensity. it is synonymous to development, growing, evolution, progress, advance, progression, enlargement, increase, expansion, augmentation, intensification and escalation. from the above inclusive growth can be taken to mean: the process of becoming larger and more mature including many things or everything and non-discriminatory. it can mean increase in number, size, power or intensity that includes people of all kind within a community, society, local government, state or a country (adamu,2017). the meaning of inclusive growth can further be juxtapose to refer to the following: comprehensive development, wide-range development, all-encompassing development, complete development, broad development, comprehensive growth, wide-range growth, all-encompassing growth, complete growth, broad growth, comprehensive evolution, wide range evolution, all-encompassing evolution, complete evolution, broad evolution, comprehensive progress, wide range progress, all-encompassing progress, complete progress, broad progress, www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 8 comprehensive advancement, wide range advancement, all-encompassing advancement, complete advancement, broad advancement, comprehensive progression, wide range progression, all-encompassing progression, complete progression, broad progression, comprehensive enlargement, wide range enlargement, all-encompassing enlargement, complete enlargement, broad enlargement, comprehensive increase, wide range increase, allencompassing increase, complete increase, broad increase, comprehensive expansion, wide range expansion, all encompassing expansion, complete expansion, broad expansion, comprehensive augmentation, wide range augmentation, all-encompassing augmentation, complete augmentation, broad augmentation, comprehensive intensification, wide range intensification, all-encompassing intensification, complete intensification, broad intensification, comprehensive escalation, wide range escalation, all-encompassing escalation, complete escalation and broad escalation. the list is endless and interesting, the more we go into it the broader the understanding (adamu,2017). according to wikipedia (2016) “inclusive growth” basically means making sure everyone is included in growth regardless of their economic class, gender, sex, disability and religion. “inclusive growth refers to the pace and pattern of growth which is considered, interlinked that need to be address together. it is about raising the pace of growth and enlarging the size of the economy, while leveling the playing field for investment and increasing productive employment opportunities” (lanchovichina and lundstrom, 2009). it is depicted as output growth that is sustained over decades, is broad-based across economic sectors, creates productive employment opportunities for a great majority of the country's working age population, and reduces poverty (world economic forum, 2015). the european commission (2012) described inclusive growth as “a high employment economy delivering economic, social and territorial. it means raising employment rate more and better jobs especially for women, young people and older workers helping people of all ages anticipate and manage change through investment in skill and training modernizing labour markets and welfare systems ensuring the benefits of growth reach all parts of the society”. inclusive growth is about expanding national economy and ensuring that most vulnerable people of societies are reachedthe “equality of opportunity” and “participation in growth by all” are the basis of inclusive growth (undp, 2015). it is economic growth that creates opportunities for all segments of the population and distributes the dividends of increased prosperity, both in monetary and non-monetary terms, fairly across society (oecd, 2014). however, favorable factors for promoting inclusive growth are categorized into macro and micro factors. the macro factors among others include better financial regulation, openness to foreign direct investment, trade liberalization, providing social safety, reorientation of public expenses, lawful and political reforms. the micro factors among others include: reducing income and non-income associated unfairness, developing infrastructure, empowerment, access to market, roles played by civil society organizations, accountability and good governance (ukessays 2015). 2.1. review of literature 2.1.1. inclusive growth inclusive growth is now well accepted as the key economic goal for developing countries. it generally includes but extends pro-poor growth. the assumption is that growth which is beneficial for the large majority of people in developing countries is more likely to be economically and politically sustainable. mckay. (2008) stresses the importance of promoting broad-based growth, which it argues is more likely to result in sustained growth. it outlines some of the barriers that the poor face in participating in growth opportunities. according to him, economic insecurity and high levels of vulnerability mean that the poor are less likely to engage in risk-taking activities, which have the potential to be more profitable. furthermore, many of the poor live in more remote areas or are members of long-term disadvantaged groups – and thus tend to be less well served by public policies and have less access to growth opportunities. the paper concludes that a lower level of assets, including human capital, limits the scope of participation by the poor in growth. ali (2007) highlights the problem of rising income and non-income inequalities in asia and the need for inclusive growth in order to mitigate the rise in inequality. income inequality stems in part from higher demand and thus higher wages for skilled workers, due to the rising importance of new technologies and foreign direct investment. in addition, non-income inequalities have risen with the decline in effective delivery of public services. the paper outlines that promoting inclusive growth requires creation of opportunities, including addressing economic, social and political constraints in generating opportunities; equalizing access to opportunities generated by growth by addressing the disadvantages of circumstances (e.g., strengthening human capabilities to enable individuals to qualify for productive and decent employment); and providing social protection schemes in order to reach the chronically poor who may still be unable to access such opportunities and participate in growth. the paper also stresses the importance of measuring inclusive growth and the extent and degree to which inclusiveness is attained. this has received less attention than policy formulation. measurement should focus on average opportunities and www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 9 distribution of opportunities; and can be carried out for individual components, e.g., employment, access to education, access to health facilities, etc. mendoza and thelen (2008) stresses that facilitating access of the poor to markets („market access‟), however, does not necessarily result in successful engagement with markets and the attainment of positive development impacts („inclusive markets‟). these authors‟ outlines the barriers that poor people face in accessing and participating in markets as producers and consumers; and remedies provided by private sector actors. as producers, poor people can be excluded from access to labour and various product markets due to: lack of access to credit; limited investment in their human capital (including skills and entrepreneurship training);and geographic obstacles, such as their location in rural areas. markets can promote economic growth and can provide a range of benefits to those able to access and participate successfully in them. the ability to engage with markets, however, varies across groups(ogujiuba and alehile, 2011). speaking of groups, the studies reviewed were not specific about the nature of the poor concerned; however, this paper is concerned about the poorest of the poor (i.e., people with disabilities). it is estimated that 10-12per cent of the world's population has some kind of disability and that 82per cent of people with disabilities live below the poverty line(handicap international, 2006). 2.1.2. the economic benefits of adopting a disability inclusive approach to development: empirical studies the economic benefits of adopting a disability inclusive approach to development are complex and difficult to quantify as a result of a lack of data (walton, 2012). one study in nepal finds that wage returns to education for people with disabilities are very high, ranging from 19.3 to 25.6 per cent (lamicchane and sawadea, 2009; lamicchane, 2015). however, „at least 10 years of schooling are necessary for returns on the investment in education to turn positive‟ (lamicchane, 2015). further work in nepal, the philippines, and cambodia, found that „people with disabilities who enjoy longer years of schooling tend to be engaged in full-time or white-collar jobs which are usually associated with greater income stability‟ (lamicchane, 2015). in addition, a study across 13 low and middle-income countries found that „each additional year of schooling completed by an adult with a disability reduced the probability by 2-5 per cent that his/her household belonged to the poorest two quintiles‟ (morgon banks and polack, 2014). it is estimated that in pakistan, „rehabilitating people with incurable blindness would lead to gross aggregate gains in household earnings of usd 71.8 million per year‟ (morgon banks and polack, 2014). the inclusion of people with disabilities in work/employment can lead to greater economic self-sufficiency, which decreases demands on social assistance; although evidence from lowand middle-income counties is lacking (morgon banks and polack, 2014). evidence from high-income countries also indicates that „with the proper job matching and the right accommodations, employees with disabilities can be just as productive as other workers and their inclusion may even increase overall profit margins‟ (morgon banks and polack, 2014). it is anticipated that increasing labour force participation of both people with disabilities and their caregivers will increase a country‟s potential tax base (morgon banks and polack, 2014). in the philippines, for example, excess unemployment among individuals with unrepaired cleft lips and palates cost the government between usd 8-9.8 million dollars in lost tax revenue (morgon banks and polack, 2014). more evidence is available from highincome countries. in scotland, evidence indicates that every £1 spent on a supported employment project led to a savings of £5.87, due in large part to decreased need for disability/welfare benefits and increased tax income (morgon banks and polack, 2014). a study of disability and equity at work finds that „work provides the material means through which to acquire adequate food, clothing, and shelter; access education, health care, and support services; and participate in the cultural, recreational, and social life of one‟s community‟ (heymann et al., 2014). including people with disabilities in the labour market also reduces stigma and promotes inclusion (heymann et al., 2014). gainful employment can have a significant positive impact on feelings of worth, ability, and self-determination for individuals with disabilities, as well as increasing their social and civic interaction (morgon banks and polack, 2014; heymann et al., 2014; lamicchane, 2015; burns and oswald, 2014). a quasi-randomized control trial in india found that community-based rehabilitation (cbr) programmes significantly improved the well-being and access to services of people with disabilities (mauro et al., 2014). compared to the control group, access to pensions and allowances, aid appliances, access to paid jobs and personalpractical autonomy for the people with disabilities involved in the cbr programmes increased by 29.7 per cent, 9.4 per cent, 12.3 per cent and 36.2 per cent respectively after seven years (mauro et al., 2014). a randomized control trial in china found that people with schizophrenia who received individualized family-based interventions worked 2.6 months more per year than those who did not receive the treatment (morgon banks and polack, 2014). a study in bangladesh found that „children who were provided with assistive devices (hearing aids or wheelchairs) were more likely to have completed primary school compared to those who did not receive any http://www.gsdrc.org/topic-guides/disability-inclusion/impact-of-disability-inclusion/#walton-2012 http://www.gsdrc.org/topic-guides/disability-inclusion/impact-of-disability-inclusion/#lamicchane-sawadea-2009 http://www.gsdrc.org/topic-guides/disability-inclusion/impact-of-disability-inclusion/#lamicchane-2015 http://www.gsdrc.org/topic-guides/disability-inclusion/impact-of-disability-inclusion/#lamicchane-2015 http://www.gsdrc.org/topic-guides/disability-inclusion/impact-of-disability-inclusion/#lamicchane-2015 http://www.gsdrc.org/topic-guides/disability-inclusion/impact-of-disability-inclusion/#morgon-banks-polack-2014 http://www.gsdrc.org/topic-guides/disability-inclusion/impact-of-disability-inclusion/#morgon-banks-polack-2014 http://www.gsdrc.org/topic-guides/disability-inclusion/impact-of-disability-inclusion/#morgon-banks-polack-2014 http://www.gsdrc.org/topic-guides/disability-inclusion/impact-of-disability-inclusion/#morgon-banks-polack-2014 http://www.gsdrc.org/topic-guides/disability-inclusion/impact-of-disability-inclusion/#morgon-banks-polack-2014 http://www.gsdrc.org/topic-guides/disability-inclusion/impact-of-disability-inclusion/#morgon-banks-polack-2014 http://www.gsdrc.org/topic-guides/disability-inclusion/impact-of-disability-inclusion/#morgon-banks-polack-2014 http://www.gsdrc.org/topic-guides/disability-inclusion/impact-of-disability-inclusion/#morgon-banks-polack-2014 http://www.gsdrc.org/topic-guides/disability-inclusion/impact-of-disability-inclusion/#morgon-banks-polack-2014 http://www.gsdrc.org/topic-guides/disability-inclusion/impact-of-disability-inclusion/#heymann-et-al-2014 http://www.gsdrc.org/topic-guides/disability-inclusion/impact-of-disability-inclusion/#heymann-et-al-2014 http://www.gsdrc.org/topic-guides/disability-inclusion/impact-of-disability-inclusion/#morgon-banks-polack-2014 http://www.gsdrc.org/topic-guides/disability-inclusion/impact-of-disability-inclusion/#heymann-et-al-2014 http://www.gsdrc.org/topic-guides/disability-inclusion/impact-of-disability-inclusion/#heymann-et-al-2014 http://www.gsdrc.org/topic-guides/disability-inclusion/impact-of-disability-inclusion/#heymann-et-al-2014 http://www.gsdrc.org/topic-guides/disability-inclusion/impact-of-disability-inclusion/#lamicchane-2015 http://www.gsdrc.org/topic-guides/disability-inclusion/impact-of-disability-inclusion/#burns-et-al-2014 http://www.gsdrc.org/topic-guides/disability-inclusion/impact-of-disability-inclusion/#mauro-et-al-2014 http://www.gsdrc.org/topic-guides/disability-inclusion/impact-of-disability-inclusion/#mauro-et-al-2014 http://www.gsdrc.org/topic-guides/disability-inclusion/impact-of-disability-inclusion/#morgon-banks-polack-2014 http://www.gsdrc.org/topic-guides/disability-inclusion/impact-of-disability-inclusion/#morgon-banks-polack-2014 http://www.gsdrc.org/topic-guides/disability-inclusion/impact-of-disability-inclusion/#morgon-banks-polack-2014 www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 10 supports‟ (morgon banks and polack, 2014). a small study in ethiopia found that the provision of wheelchairs led to a „significant time reallocation away from begging (1.40 fewer hours per day) and toward income-generating activity (1.75 more hours per day) and 77.5 per cent higher income‟ (grider and wydick, 2015). little evidence is available, but recent research on disability inclusion in gender-based violence activities in refugee camps found that including women and girls with disabilities, and their caregivers, fostered relationship building and trust among women and girls with disabilities, as well as with others in the community (wrc, 2015). inclusion also led to information exchange, skills building, and improved self-esteem. it enabled women and girls with disabilities to be recognized, not for their impairment, but for their roles as leaders, friends and neighbors, making positive contributions to their communities (wrc, 2015). women with disabilities and caregivers in the vslas also reported „increased independence and decision-making and greater respect and status within the family and community as a result of their newfound access to income-earning opportunities‟ (wrc, 2015). 2.2. concept of disability in simple terms, disability is the limitation in performing certain tasks that society expects of an individual. disability permeates every society, and has done so through the ages (lambo, 1981; world report on disability, 2011). today, in most parts of the world, the disabled include persons with intellectual, developmental, sensory, physical or other dysfunctions, which may be acquired, congenital, or even hereditary (dell orto and power, 2007). in the absence of effective education or rehabilitation, such disabilities have the potential to impede a person‟s full participation in the society and the performance of social roles. 2.3. models of disability models of disability are tools for defining the concept of impairment and they provide a basis upon which governments at all levels can devise strategies for meeting the needs of pwds in the society. there are several models which can be used to define and empower people with disabilities, giving them full and equal rights alongside their fellow citizens. among these models are the medical model, which results from an individual person's physical or mental limitations; tragedy/charity model, which depicts persons with disabilities as victims of circumstances, deserving pity; the social model, which views disability as a consequence of environmental, social and attitudinal barriers that prevent people with impairments from maximum participation in societal activitie s. the human rights model, derived from the social model, is based on the principle that all people must access equal opportunities to participate in society. this model‟s main goal is to empower people with disabilities and to guarantee their right to equal and active participation in political, economic, social, and cultural activities (handicap international, 2006). others are the social adaptive model, which recognizes that the inability of pwds to adapt to the demands of society may be a contributory factor to their conditions; the economic model, which sees disability as the person's inability to participate in work, assessing the degree to which impairment affects an individual's productivity; the customer/empowering model, which enables the client decide and select what services he/she believes are appropriate; and the religious model, which views disability as a punishment inflicted upon an individual or family by an external force(fmwasd, 2011). the disability creation process model considers disability not as a fixed „state‟ but as a process which limits a person‟s social and everyday activities (fougeyrollas, 1999). under this model, disability is considered a disturbance in a person‟s life habits (his or her full social participation) as a result of an interaction between the person‟s abilities and the person‟s environment. disability is therefore a relative situation which varies from person to person and according to the context and the environment. this „disability situation‟ can change or evolve by reducing the impairment, developing 3. global prevalence of disability the 2011 world report on disability (who/wb) uses two approaches to measuring disability namely the 2004 global burden of disease and the 2004 world health surveys (whs). in 2004, the global burden of disease estimated that the prevalence of disability was at 19.4% of the global population while the world health survey estimates give a prevalence of 15.6%. using these proportions, it is estimated that between 785 million and 975 million people in the world have disabilities. eighty percent of the pwds worldwide live in developing countries and 82% live below the poverty line (hope, 2003). the world bank estimates that individuals with disabilities now comprise about 20% of the poorest of the poor (elwan, 1999). the prevalence of disability, as reported in the 2011 world report on disability, is consistent with prevalence reported in earlier studies in high income countries where prevalence has been over 10% and some even approaching 20%. it is evident that over the last two decades african countries have continued reporting significantly lower rates compared to high income countries at around 5% or less. loeb and eide (2004) suggest that there might be under-reporting of disability in low income countries. these differences might also be due to differences in the definitions of disability and assessment tools. http://www.gsdrc.org/topic-guides/disability-inclusion/impact-of-disability-inclusion/#morgon-banks-polack-2014 http://www.gsdrc.org/topic-guides/disability-inclusion/impact-of-disability-inclusion/#grider-wydick-2015 http://www.gsdrc.org/topic-guides/disability-inclusion/impact-of-disability-inclusion/#wrc-2015 http://www.gsdrc.org/topic-guides/disability-inclusion/impact-of-disability-inclusion/#wrc-2015 http://www.gsdrc.org/topic-guides/disability-inclusion/impact-of-disability-inclusion/#wrc-2015 www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 11 3.1. people with disabilities in nigeria the geographical distribution of persons with disabilities in nigeria by states and geo-political according to the 2009-2010 national baseline survey is presented in table 1 below. the national prevalence rate of pwds was 3.2 per cent (fmwasd, 2011).given an estimated national population of 150 million people, this finding suggests that 4.8 million nigerians were living as pwds(fmwasd,2011). a breakdown, by state, shows a marked variation in the prevalence. this estimate is scientifically a correct estimate of the population of pwds in nigeria within the context of thesurvey. however, the world health organization estimates of the population of pwds in nigeria to be about 19 million. report from the national baseline survey indicates by types of disability that the commonest type of disability was physical handicap (27.5%), followed by blindness/visual disability (16.4%), then by mental illness (13.3%), then by autism (11.2%), then by cerebral palsy (10.1%), then by deafness/hearing disability (7.5%), then by speech defect (5.2%), and lastly other disabilities (1.1%)(fmwasd, 2011). gender-wise, females predominated in four of the specific categories, namely, physical handicap, blindness, cerebral palsy, and intellectual disability; whilst males predominated in the other four specific categories of mental illness, autism, deafness, and speech defect, as well as the omnibus category of the other disabilities. however, the magnitude of the size of predominance by females in relation to physical handicap and intellectual disability, in particular, has contributed to the overall dominance of the females over males in relation to the figures for gender-affiliated disabilities. also, data from the national baseline survey indicates that the majority of pwds (52.6%) do not have any form of education, across all the states. those with first school leaving certificate and modern school leaving certificate accounted for 17.3%, and 1.1%, respectively. few (13.5%) pwds have sss/”o” level certificate; while 0.4% and 6.5% of the pwds, respectively, have vocational training and jssce, respectively. pwds with “a” level and nce/ond accounted for 0.8% and 3.0%, respectively. further, 2.8%, 0.2% and 0.3% of the pwds had attained the educational level of ba/bsc/hnd, technical/professionals and master's degree, respectively. only 0.1% and 1.3% have doctorate degree and other qualifications, respectively (fmwasd,2011). table 1: national disability prevalence rate, by state and by geo political zone pwds % non-pwds % total % north central benue 49 3.4 1,396 96.6 1,445 100.0 kogi 42 3.4 1,198 96.6 1,240 100.0 kwara 22 1.7 1,287 98.3 1,309 100.0 nasarawa 75 3.7 1,937 96.3 2,012 100.0 niger 9 4.0 216 96.0 225 100.0 plateau 25 1.4 1,722 98.6 1,747 100.0 fct abuja 10 0.6 1,567 99.4 1,577 100.0 total 232 2.6 9,323 97.4 9,555 100.0 north east adamawa 24 1.4 1,749 98.6 1,773 100.0 bauchi 52 2.6 1,966 97.4 2,018 100.0 borno 46 2.9 1,568 97.1 1,614 100.0 gombe 50 2.8 1,728 97.2 1,778 100.0 taraba 42 2.7 1,497 97.3 1,539 100.0 yobe 38 2.1 1,812 97.9 1,850 100.0 total 252 2.4 10,320 97.6 10,572 100.0 north west jigawa 43 2.2 1,889 97.8 1,932 100.0 kaduna 48 2.7 1,758 97.3 1,806 100.0 kano 37 1.8 2,020 98.2 2,057 100.0 katsina 28 1.5 1,849 98.5 1,877 100.0 kebbi 51 2.5 1,950 97.5 2,001 100.0 www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 12 sokoto 304 22.2 1,068 77.8 1,372 100.0 zamfara 33 1.9 1,716 98.1 1,749 100.0 total 544 5.0 12,250 95.0 12,794 100.0 south east abia 67 5.8 1,084 94.2 1,151 100.0 anambra 56 4.6 1,165 95.4 1,221 100.0 ebonyi 71 4.0 1,686 96.0 1,757 100.0 enugu 28 2.3 1,202 97.7 1,230 100.0 imo 86 6.0 1,340 94.0 1,426 100.0 total 308 4.5 6,477 95.5 6,785 100.0 south south akwa ibom 70 4.9 1,360 95.1 1,430 100.0 bayelsa 11 0.9 1,228 99.1 1,239 100.0 cross river 26 2.0 1,289 98.0 1,315 100.0 delta 81 7.1 1,053 92.9 1,134 100.0 edo 31 2.5 1,231 97.5 1,262 100.0 rivers 33 2.2 1,476 97.8 1,509 100.0 total 252 3.3 7,637 96.7 7,889 100.0 south west ekiti 21 2.8 724 97.2 745 100.0 lagos 19 1.6 1,147 98.4 1,166 100.0 ogun 32 3.3 945 96.7 977 100.0 ondo 24 2.2 1,092 97.8 1,116 100.0 osun 16 1.6 962 98.4 978 100.0 oyo 12 1.0 1,224 99.0 1,236 100.0 total 124 2.1 6,094 97.9 6,218 100.0 total 1,712 3.2 52,101 96.7 53,813 100.0 source: fmwasd(2011) 3.2. situation of pwd in nigeria nigerian socio-economic and political environment is suffocating pwds (adeyanju, 2009).nigerian environments consists of physical (mountains, air, water, ocean, rivers, lakes, rainfall, wind, temperature etc); biological (plants, animals, organisms); social (culture, tradition, towns, cities, institutions, governance systems, spirituality and religious systems etc); in a nutshell, the political, social and economic life of any country define the progress or backwardness of its citizenry. as such, the whole gamut of nigerian environment as presently being experienced, is suffocating and retarding the growth of pwds in the following ways: political environment: since independence in 1960, persons with disabilities are still being excluded from participation in decision-making (at all levels). no seat is ever reserved for people with disabilities during elections and political parties continued in deceit and grandstanding as they do not deem it fit to "reserve" and post or seat in the parliament (at the three-tier government's level) or any posts in party hierarchy. simply put, this exclusion for years (until now still going on) has aptly confined people with disabilities in nigeria to the status of hewer-of-wood and drawer-of-water. they are living in servitude in their own fatherland! their peers have gone on to consolidate, own big thriving businesses and are doing well with members of their families while majority of the people with disabilities continue to live on crumbs that fell from the table of their peers! corruption, greed and avarice in nigeria has denied them of good life as looting continues unabated, culminating in poor delivery of services viz: lack of education, decaying infrastructural facilities, poor healthcare delivery, lack of food for the swelling population in nigeria majority of whom are so poor due to poverty and hordes of unemployed youths. elections are blatantly rigged in nigeria with godfathers dictating the tune (these godfathers would hardly be caught supporting or sponsoring a physically challenged), while thuggery, violence and mayhems are regular features during elections and also religious skirmishes all these resulting in swelling population of pwds in nigeria (adeyanju, 2009). interestingly, the federal government of alhaji umaru yar 'adua constituted electoral reforms committee headed by the respected retired justice muhammad uwais to see to it that nigeria achieve free and fair elections in the future which means persons with disabilities may be ushered into participatory democracy soon( how happy they felt that www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 13 an injustices of many decades is about to be corrected) but, the government continue to be sluggish while displaying lack of political will to implement the electoral reforms which should be the catalyst for changing the fortunes of persons with disabilities even till this present regime of muhammad buhari. physical environment: roads and building constructed in nigeria are not accessible to pwds; roads are death traps, while we also have unfavorable weather conditions like heavy rainfall resulting in flooding, erosion, etc.the frequent gas flaring in the niger delta region produces heat waves. similarly in the northern nigeria, the dry harmattan and humidity during the dry seasons often results in cerebral meningitis which is the major cause of deafness in this part of nigeria. destruction of ecosystems and faunas, constituting problem and we are well enjoying the hardships these brought as a result of increasing in disability population. nigeria is a land with abundant god-given mineral resources name it; oil, gold, marble, tin, coal and so on and so forth, but these resources have turned nigeria into a cursed instead of a blessed country. today, agitation for resource control is rampant because these resources are not being put into judicious use while a few cornered all the proceedings for themselves and their cronies causing poverty and disability. socio-economic environment: frankly speaking, persons with disabilities face stigmatization, deprivation, frustration, marginalization, exclusion, discrimination, segregation and negative attitude from the larger society. when it comes to securing job, many are jobless; when it is the turn of business opportunity, many lack the training, skills and education a pre-requisite to setting up flourishing business; to access capital/funds for business development is like squeezing water from a rock as the banks will request for collaterals which many pwds couldn't afford. worse still, of the thousands of micro-finance houses that dotted the nooks and crannies of nigerian nation, none is specifically designed to cater for persons with disabilities. there is nothing like social security whereby unemployed and the needy can receive certain amount as allowances. with businesses crumbling and some companies relocating to other countries due to high cost of productions and global economic meltdown, more persons with disabilities have been thrown into an already saturated job market, life is very difficult and unbearable for some and hence, proliferation of begging activities (adeyanju, 2009). to worsen the situation, the government of the day, in the name of beautification has destroyed houses and businesses of many poor people, some are now experiencing depression and if care is not taken, and mental disability will be on the increase. these situations faced by people with disabilities in nigeria are better summarized by lang and upah (2008) in table 2 below. table 2: barriers to the social inclusion of disabled people in nigeria environmental institutional attitudinal inaccessible public buildings inaccessible transport system; lack of access to computers & the internet poor lighting lack of accessible information, lack of disability legislation; lack of robust and reliable disability statistics no social protection;  inadequate provision of medical and rehabilitation services; lack of access to micro-finance and banking services inaccessibility to mainstream public services, (especially education) the cause of impairment often attributed to a “curse”; disability issues are predominantly perceived in terms of charity/welfare –not in terms of human rights lack of understanding of disability issues by the general public source: lang and upah (2008) 3.3. economic inclusion of people with disability in the scheme of growth in nigeria: employment perspectives considering that the economic inclusion of people with disabilities is a cross-cutting issue, successful results require complementary activities in multiple sectors. these may include health care, rehabilitation (including assistive devices), public education, barrier-free access, transport, communications, education, social welfare and community development, awareness on people with disabilities‟ rights, social security, sport and recreation, and adequate and enforced public policies and legislation nonetheless, participation in economic life is a necessity. people with disabilities need to earn a living and contribute to the support of their families. economic activity is also one factor that enhances self-fulfillment and self-esteem. work offers people with disabilities the opportunity to be recognized as contributing members of their www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 14 communities. like the rest of the population in developing economies, most people with disabilities turn to self-employment because of a lack of opportunities in the job market. although many would prefer to have a job with a regular income, self-employment is often the only option available. it is estimated that for each person with disability employed by a company in developing countries, four more generate their own income through self-employment, most of them in the informal sector. in contrast, in developed countries, less than three per cent of people with disabilities are self-employed (harris, c. (1997). many people with disabilities have started shops, craft workshops and farming activities; others are involved in street vending, tailoring, carpentry, etc. in rural areas, self-employment also includes farming or agricultural activities. the majority of people with disabilities in developing countries live in rural areas, like the rest of the population. economic inclusion programmed for people with disabilities should also give attention to rural livelihoods. grants or loans for investment in crop production are not very common; self-help saving and lending groups are mostly used to obtain loans to buy seeds, insecticides or pesticides, to pay land rent, or to hire agricultural labor. first and foremost, people with disabilities who opt for self-employment should have their basic needs covered prior to starting their projects. food security, understood as guaranteed access to safe, sufficient and nutritious food, should be the first priority. according to their personal situation, people with disabilities may also need assistive devices, rehabilitation, psychological support and social inclusion programmed prior to, and/or during, their economic activity. successful self-employment also requires motivation, adequate personal attitude, self-confidence, and some specific know-how (education, vocational training or prior business experience) that will allow the person to successfully develop a sustainable micro or small business. self-employment is not the only strategy to achieve the economic inclusion of people with disabilities. for those who are not willing to take the risk of being an entrepreneur, job placement schemes and training schemes designed for employment in the formal sector may also provide some opportunities. some people with severe disabilities may require safety nets and social security resources to cover their special needs. the un standard rules on the equalization of opportunities for persons with disabilities recognizes that “states should ensure the provision of adequate income support to persons with disabilities who… have temporarily lost or received a reduction in their income of have been denied employment opportunities”(united nations, 1993). unfortunately, in developing countries, this is often not the case. 4. way forward for nigeria there should be signing into law the persons with disability bill to guarantee the rights of the people living with disabilities. this law should be meant to protect them and greater protection must also be given to persons with disability to defend themselves in the society. for instance, a law that would strengthen punishment for sexual abuse against persons with disability. for another instance, a disabled person should be certified with a permanent disability certificate (pdc) which should make a person entitled to all the rights and privileges of a disabled person. efforts should be made to improve the health status of individuals with disabilities (i.e. they should be included within mainstream health services) in order to achieve greater participation in employment and education, resulting in economic gains. similarly, disability-specific programmes and services targeted specifically towards people with disabilities should be put in place. for instance, more investment in rehabilitation by providing more assistive devices that could greatly improve their level of functioning. health facilities should be well-equipped to accommodate people with disabilities. that is, basic health centers should have not architectural barriers that prevented access for individuals with physical disabilities. furthermore, these centers should have facilities for certain disabilities particularly sensory or intellectual disabilities needed for communicating of important information, such as provision of medical history, explanations of diagnoses, treatment plans and recommendations for follow-up. these facilities should be made affordable for people with disabilities who seek health services. in the same vein, discrimination and negative attitudinal behavior of by health care providers should be avoided. low self-esteem and a lack of confidence can plague people with disabilities. allowing them to have equal access to sports can enhance their gross motor skills, social and communicating abilities, as well as improve their overall health and well-being. people (children) with special needs will mature physically, socially and emotionally when participating in a recreational activity (momyer, 2010). the list of activities include: wheelchair football, wheelchair basketball, sitting volleyball, stand-up and wheelchair tennis, table tennis, track and field, etc. given the urban bias in the location of many health facilities, rural inhabitants with disabilities are particularly www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 15 disadvantaged. as such, effort should be made to provide accessible, affordable transportation for people with disabilities who are seeking treatment. exclusion from education may lead to lower employment and earning potential among people with disabilities. not only does this make individuals and their families more vulnerable to poverty, but it can also limit national economic growth. inclusion of people with sensory or physical impairments in schools should be encouraged and provision should be made for assistive devices. in the same vein, government organs and authorities should take into consideration the special needs and requirements of the disabled in the formulation, design of educational policies and programs. this should entail structural adaptation of all educational institutions to the needs of the disabled as much as possible. more effort should be made to include people with disabilities in regular or mainstream work/employment and it should be ensured that they get a job not out of pity but for what she or he could offer. the more employers are willing to hire persons with disabilities, the more other employers will follow (wehman, 2011), thus more experience of companies that are successfully employing persons with disabilities need to be shared with larger business community (hernandez et al., 2008). there is a need for greater collaboration between policy-makers and employers to better promote the success of disabled people in the labor market, as well as eliminating negative attitudes and prejudices and promoting employer education about the issues that disabled people face are important (shier et al.,2009). -similarly, means of movement to various work places for people living with disabilities such as vehicles and elevators should be provided. specifically, the buses and cars procured should be designed to accommodate pwds. likewise; toilets at work places should be designed to suit this group of persons with disabilities (leadership, n.d.). -though it should not be promoted as the only option for economic inclusion, self-employment can be a good alternative, especially in a country like nigeria where there is a general dearth of opportunities for formal sector jobs. a key requirement to successful entrepreneurship is access to credit. microfinance institutions should extend credit and other financial services (adapt microfinance products for disabled people) to people with disabilities or low-income individuals or those barred from more formal banking institutions. in that regard, a special scheme should be designed strictly for pwds because potential lenders frequently are reluctant to loan to people with disabilities, as they are perceived to be high risk clients: as people with disabilities also tend to be poor, they often lack collateral, guarantors or records of past repayments that are traditionally needed to satisfy more formal lending agreements. as such, these main instruments can be used to share the risk of a microfinance institution when it provides financial services to people with disabilities: financing credit lines; and guarantee funds. financing credit lines aims to provide financial reserves for a microfinance institution to provide loans to people with disabilities. guarantee funds are particularly useful for borrowers who do not have sufficient collateral, such as land or other assets. better still, specialized microfinance should be established for people with disabilities. it will be in a better position for providing people with disabilities with supporting or complementary services. self-help groups should be established also to respond to the needs of their members and empowerment. this self-help if linked to microfinance institutions and banks may be very effective. microfinance institutions should organize training for people with disabilities in order to enable them manage their businesses. in several cases, training is needed in order to learn more about the technical aspects and procedures that will ensure success. this will help close the information gap on each party‟s activities impeding cooperation between microfinance institutions and organizations of/for people with disabilities. 5. conclusion nigeria cannot have inclusive growth unless disability is made an integral part of our growth. considering that the economic inclusion of people with disabilities is a cross-cutting issue, successful results require complementary activities in multiple sectors. these may include health care, rehabilitation (including assistive devices), public education, barrier-free access, transport, communications, education, social welfare and community development, awareness on people with disabilities‟ rights, social security, sport and recreation, and adequate and enforced public policies and legislation. in sum, persons living with disabilities should be included in the scheme of things including formal or selfemployment. a sustainable, gainful livelihood is essential for ensuring individuals with disabilities are economically empowered, can fulfill their basic needs and contribute financially to their families, communities and society at large. without greater inclusion of people with disabilities in employment, the vicious cycle of poverty will continue to be perpetuated. www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 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2, no. 1; 2018 18 appendix table 1: economic indicator for nigeria in 2015 indicators indicator value gdp growth (constant prices, national currency) 2.653 % gdp (current prices, national currency) ngn 95,177.74 billion. gdp (current prices, us dollars) us$ 490.207 billion gdp deflator 136.396 (index, base year as per country's accounts = 100) gdp per capita (constant prices, national currency) ngn 390,444.92 . gdp per capita (current prices, national currency) ngn 532,549.36 . gdp per capita (current prices, us dollars) us$ 2,742.86 gdp (ppp), us dollars us$ 1,091.70 billion gdp per capita (ppp), us dollars us$ 6,108.41 gdp share of world total (ppp) 0.962 % implied ppp conversion rate 87.183 investment (% of gdp) 14.48 % gross national savings (% of gdp) 12.049 % inflation, average consumer prices (indexed to year 2000) 173.125 (index, base year 2000 = 100) inflation (average consumer price change %) 9.01 % inflation, end of year (indexed to year 2000) 180.15 (index, base year 2000 = 100) inflation (end of year change %) 9.554 % import volume of all items including goods and services (percent change) -1.853 % import volumes of goods only (percent change) 12.369 % export volume of all items including goods and services (percent change) 11.354 % export volumes of goods only (percent change) 9.698 % unemployment rate (% of labour force) 9.9 % population 178.721 million general government revenue (national currency) ngn 7,445.45 billions. general government revenue (% of gdp) 7.823 % general government total expenditure (national currency) ngn 11,236.69 billions. general government total expenditure (% of gdp) 11.806 % total government net lending/ borrowing (national currency) ngn -3,791.24 billions. total government net lending/ borrowing (% of gdp) -3.983 % fiscal year gross domestic product, current prices ngn 95,177.74 billions. current account balance (us dollars) us$ -11.918 billion current account balance (% gdp) -2.431 % source: economy watch (n.d.). http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/nigeria/gdp_growth_constant_prices_national_currency/ http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/nigeria/gdp_current_prices_national_currency/ http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/nigeria/gdp_current_prices_us_dollars/ http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/nigeria/gdp_deflator/ http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/nigeria/gdp_per_capita_constant_prices_national_currency/ http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/nigeria/gdp_per_capita_current_prices_national_currency/ http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/nigeria/gdp_per_capita_current_prices_us_dollars/ http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/nigeria/gdp_ppp_us_dollars/ http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/nigeria/gdp_per_capita_ppp_us_dollars/ http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/nigeria/gdp_share_of_world_total_ppp/ http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/nigeria/implied_ppp_conversion_rate/ http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/nigeria/investment_percentage_of_gdp/ http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/nigeria/gross_national_savings_percentage_of_gdp/ http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/nigeria/inflation_average_consumer_prices_indexed_to_year_2000/ http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/nigeria/inflation_average_consumer_price_change_percentage/ http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/nigeria/inflation_end_of_year_indexed_to_year_2000/ http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/nigeria/inflation_end_of_year_change_percentage/ http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/nigeria/import_volume_all_items_goods_services_percent_change/ http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/nigeria/import_volume_all_items_goods_services_percent_change/ http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/nigeria/import_volume_goods_percent_change/ http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/nigeria/export_volume_all_items_goods_services_percent_change/ http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/nigeria/export_volume_all_items_goods_services_percent_change/ http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/nigeria/export_volume_goods_percent_change/ http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/nigeria/unemployment_rate_percentage_of_labour_force/ http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/nigeria/population/ http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/nigeria/general_government_revenue_national_currency/ http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/nigeria/general_government_revenue_percentage_gdp/ http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/nigeria/general_government_total_expenditure_national_currency/ http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/nigeria/general_government_total_expenditure_percentage_gdp/ http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/nigeria/total_general_government_net_lending_borrowing_national_currency/ http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/nigeria/total_general_government_net_lending_borrowing_percentage_gdp/ http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/nigeria/fiscal_year_gross_domestic_product_current_prices/ http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/nigeria/current_account_balance_us_dollars/ http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/nigeria/current_account_balance_percentage_gdp/ www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 2, no. 1; 2018 19 figure 1:the vicious circle between poverty and disability source: banks and polack (n.d.). copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. this is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) contents american economic & social review vol. 1, no. 1; 2017 published by centre for research on islamic banking & finance and business 15 the role of women towards political participation in nigeria ibrahim suleiman1 1department of political science, bauchi state university, gadau, nigeria correspondence: department of political science, bauchi state university, gadau, nigeria, tel: +2348060287718, e-mail: isuleiman@basug.edu.ng received: september 28, 2017 accepted: september 30, 2017 online published: october 3, 2017 abstract this study investigates the factors that limit women‟s participation in nigeria‟s politics using case study period between 1999 and 2015, among these factors are socioeconomic development, the country‟s cultural heritage, historical legacies and institutional designs. the study employs secondary source as a method ofdata collection. the study reveals that the patriarchal system and male domination of the society, which relegates women to subordinate role, has created women‟s inferiority complex and alienated them from the mainstream politics in nigeria. the nigerian political culture of thuggery and gangsterism has made the political terrain too dangerous for most women to venture into mainstream politics. besides, the stigmatization of women politicians by fellow women discourages the political participation of the former while religious beliefs and institutional arrangements that restrict women to family responsibilities in the country coupled with lack of genuine and decisive affirmative action to encourage women‟s political participation, have created a legacy that limit women‟s political participation in the country as a whole. consequently, the study emphasizes the need to address those factors that entrench women subordination in nigeria‟s politics. these include, among others, the reformation of all religious, statutory and customary laws and practices that perpetuate women‟s subordination in the country and the explicit specifications and modalities of affirmative actions on women‟s political participation and clear guidelines for implementations in the nigeria constitution. keywords: political participation, women participation &factors affecting women political participation in nigeria. 1. introduction the increasing salience of women‟s issues and the resurgence of women‟s movements have raised popular consciousness and intense academic discourse on poor participation of women in politics (peterson & ruyan, 1999: 48 & akinboye, 2004:233). though women‟s low political participation is a universal phenomenon (shaul, 1982; waylen, 1996:11; akinboye, op.cit:233; lewu, 2005:62; rai, 2005 & pokam, 2006), the imperative of women participation in democratic governance and human development cannot be over emphasized (amadiume, 1997:81; bruce, 2004:113; babatunde, 2003; bari, 2005). sustainable democratic government relies upon the participation of all citizens in determining through elections and political processes, the role of women towards political participation in nigeria ibrahim suleiman 16 who governs them. it also depends upon the equality of all citizens under the law (sodaro, 2001:247, anifowose, 2004:205). women's legal status is closely linked with their political participation and has an impact on their ability to contribute to and benefit from economic and social progress. the involvement of women in political activities underscores this correct assertion: without the active participation of women and the incorporation of women‟s perspective in all levels of decision making, the goals of equality, development and peace cannot be achieved (akiyode; afolabi & arogundade, 2003). the possibility for all citizens both males and females to participate in the management of public affairs otherwise known as mass or popular participation is thus at the very heart of democracy (sodaro, 2001:247). putting it more succinctly, the inter-parliamentary union incorporated in the universal declaration for democracy that: the achievement of democracy presupposes a genuine partnership between men and women in the conduct of the affairs of society in which they work in equality and complementarity drawing mutual enrichment from their differences (inter-parliamentary union, 1999). although equal political opportunity for women is a goal shared by both men and women and despite increased support of women‟s equality, for thousands of years, women records poor participation in politics and decision making positions (waylen, op.cit:10; anifowose, 2004:204; pokam, 2006; henderson, 2006). this is despite the fact that women constitute roughly half of the current world population (pascaud-becane, 1999; babatunde, 2003; anifowose, op.cit:204; bari, 2005). in nigeria, like in other parts of the world, women are at least half the country‟s population. according to the report of the 2006 census, women constitute 48.78% of the national population, yet this numerical strength of women does not automatically translate to increase in women‟s participation in political activities in the country (kukah, 2003:162; abdu, 2003; nigeria cedaw ngo coalition shadow report, 2008). while the global average representation of women in national politics is 10%, in nigeria, the figure has hardly ever been more than 3% (ajayi, 2007:138; inter-parliamentary union, 2007). from the country‟s independence to 48 years after, there have been various degrees of women‟s participation in politics and governance and varying sets of limiting factors to women‟s political participation (johnson, 2003; agomo, 2004; adu, 2008). this global low women‟s participation in politics has prompted the emergence of campaigns to increase women‟s political presence in countries around the world. the first major international action in favour of women universally was taken by united nations in 1946 when it set up a commission on the status of women (peterson & runyan, 1999:11; akiyode-afolabi et al, 2003). in 1975 during the international women‟s year, the un general assembly launched the un decade for women (1976 – 1985) with a view to creating greater global awareness on the status of women and the girl child (akinboye, 2004:13). this concern climaxed with the fourth world conference on women in 1995 held in beijing, china with the theme “equality, development and peace”, the aim of which was to review and appraise the achievements of the un decade for women (omotola, 2007:33). one of the major activities of the year was the world conference on women that took place in mexico. in 1976, the un assembly again established the voluntary fund for the un decade for women to implement the objectives of the decade (oyekanmi, 2004:44). it also adopted the convention on the elimination of all forms of discrimination against women (cedaw), which became effective in 1981 (rai, 2005:3). in 1985 however, the general assembly gave the organization an expanded mandate to join the un group of agencies as the united nations development fund for women (unifem) with the mission to promote the economic the role of women towards political participation in nigeria ibrahim suleiman 17 and political empowerment of women in developing countries. in addition, the organization of african unity (oau) and the new partnership for africa‟s development (nepad) work towards strengthening women‟s political leadership and their participation in political decision-making bodies (olojede, 2004:120). these events marked a watershed in human resource development as it brought women, the other half of the world‟s population, into development. however, despite these international instruments to encourage women involvement in political activities, the world still witnesses slow progress of women participation in politics (undp report, 2005). the inter-parliamentary union report of 2007 indicates that there are onlytwelve countries where women attained the critical mass of 30% women representation in the parliament, out of which rwanda, sweden finland, argentina are handful of countries that have elected more than 40% women to their legislative body (ipu, 2007). 2. political participation: a conceptual discourse a conceptual analysis of citizens‟ participation in politics will not be thorough without a clarification of what constitutes politics. this section therefore briefly considers the concept of politics. 2.1 the concept of politics the concept of politics has been viewed in different perspectives by scholars who have written on the subject matter. heywood (1997:1) confers his credence to the divergent views of scholars on the concept of politics when he noted that respected authorities can not agree on what the subject matter is all about. in this vein therefore, the term politics has been defined in various ways. the idea of aristotle that „man is by nature a political animal‟ and his conclusion that politics is the „master science‟ because it involves the intricacy of conflicts and conflicts resolution on the distribution of power and resources in the society readily comes to the fore. heywood (1997:10) inextricably linked politics to the phenomenon of conflict and cooperation when he defined politics as the art of government, a phenomenon which relates to public affair, a means of resolving conflicts either by compromise, conciliation or negotiation, rather than through force and naked power. sodaro (2001:27) share this view by defining politics as the process by which communities pursue collective goals and deal with their conflicts authoritatively by means of government. easton (1990) defines politics as the „authoritative allocation of values‟ in a political system. by this easton sees politics as encompassing the various processes through which government responds to the pressures and demands of allocating benefits, rewards or penalties in a society. this is why lasswell (1958) sees politics as the determination of who gets what, when and how. it is however observed that the various definitions above consider the concept of politics from the view point of the normative function of politics which is the resolution of conflict of interests. however, it is necessary that its inscriptive value be also put to bear. in doing so, the concept of politics will not just be limited to the view of the developed countries but will also be relevant to the context of the developing countries particularly africa. the holistic approach to the concept of politics is however observed by williams (1980:69) in his view of politics from two perspectives. firstly, that politics is a discreditable activity whose virtue is the competitive pursuit of private interests and secondly, that politics is concerned with the administration of the common affairs of the public, a matter of universal rather than particular concern, whose aim is defining and promoting the common goods. the opinion of sodaro (2001:27) that politics is a process connotes its continuing sequence of events and interactions among various actors (individuals, organisations and government) which generally take place within a structure of rules, procedures and institutions rather than haphazardly. the indispensability of politics to the existence of statehood makes appadorai (1974:4) to conclude that politics is “the science which is concerned with the state and of the the role of women towards political participation in nigeria ibrahim suleiman 18 condition essential for its existence and development‟. following this view therefore, dahl (1963) defines politics as any stable pattern of human relationships that involves power and influence. while all the above conceptual definitions of politics portray the view of these writers as it relates to the theme under discussion, one finds the basic thrust of politics from these various scholarly views. in this regards therefore, politics involves such issues as the exercise of power or authority, a collective decision making process, allocation of scarce resources among contending factors, the making and preserving of rules and the practice of deception and manipulation. the fact that politics permeates every aspect of life owes to aristotle‟s submission that „it is only within a political community that human beings can live the good life.‟ it is imperative to grasp the truth that all social problems are in one way or the other linked to political decisions of the powers that be, a participation in this essential ingredient of a political system is therefore very much a necessity (kumari & kidwai, 1994: 11). 2.2 the concept of political participation political participation is an essential component that is required for ensuring the stability and legitimacy of every political system (kumari & kidwai, op.cit: 12). according to agbaje (1999:193), political participation is one of the fundamental ideas of a democratic society. it is the sine qua non of democracy, because democracy involves a commitment to equal opportunity for men and women to develop their individual capacities (anifowose, 2004:205). thus, democracy is inconceivable without political participation (agbaje, 1999:193). according to pateman (1970) however, citizens‟ participation in politics is very important because it determines how much power is controlled. thus in the view of kumari & kidwai (1999:12), in every society, the wielders of political power are very keen on ensuring at least some amount of political participation by the people. political participation therefore, describes the extent to which individual members of society share, take part or get involved in the life of that society (agbaje, 1999:193). it is because of this crucial place that political participation holds that kumari & kidwai (1999:13) asserts that its denial to substantial part of the population can result to explosive situation. consequently, the political power that women or any group of persons in a society have would be linked directly to the degree of their participation in the political process of that society (lewu, 2005:63). theoretically, political participation has a long genealogy. like most concepts that are used today, it is an unfolding concept. from direct participation of the greek city-states to the schumpeterian rejection of that model, the concept has been central to every discussion about democracy (beck, 1997). though the search for a participatory, just and sustainable society permeates all political systems, the normative question of how much ordinary people should participate and what kind of popular participation in political affairs is possible and desirable, is very much politically relevant and socially significant (bruce, 2004:106). this question owes to the fact that the term “participation” though widely used within democratic theory, its meaning remains vague (weale, 1999:84). steiner (1988) posits that the question of what it is to take part in politics is massively complex and ultimately ambiguous. he noted that while it is assumable that activity within a political party or an organisation which regarded itself as a pressure group should count as political participation, activity in other sorts of organisation, such as sports associations and traditional women‟s organisation which are though not overtly political but set the contexts of politics, give their active members administrative experience and are capable of overt political action if their interests or principles are threatened remains ambiguous as to whether those activities are political or not. anifowose (2004:205) defines political participation as those voluntary activities such as holding public and party office, being a candidate for office, attending election campaigns, voting and exposing oneself to political stimuli. similarly, maclosky (1968) defines political participation as a series of voluntary activities through the role of women towards political participation in nigeria ibrahim suleiman 19 which members of a society share in the direct or indirect selection of rulers and formation of public policy. sanghera, (2005) on the other hand defines political participation as the active engagement by individuals and groups with the governmental processes that affect their lives. this encompasses both involvements in decision-making and acts of opposition. 2.3 women and political participation throughout the world, the power relations that shape social, political, economic and cultural life prevent women from participating fully in all areas of their lives, whether it‟s in the home, or in the public arena (awe, 1992; waylen, 1996; nwankwo, 1996, unumeri, 2003, abdu, 2003, johnson, 2003). according to akioyede-afolabi (2003), the global average representation of women in national politics is 5%. notable exceptions include the nordic countries, costa rica, south africa and uganda, where proportional representation is practiced (lewu, 2005:62; ipu report, 2007). while women‟s dedicated efforts to challenge the status quo have allowed more women to reach positions of power in recent years, women continue to be under-represented in all areas of decision-making, such as religion, the media, culture and the law and still face significant barriers to their full and equal participation in the structures and institutions which govern their lives (omotola, 2007; ajayi, 2007; the nigeria cedaw ngo coalition shadow report, 2008; genevieve, 1999). the first ever women rights convention (which had more than one hundred women in attendance was held in 1948 at seneca falls, new york at the instance of women like lacretia moth and elizabeth candy stanton. the group demanded equal rights, including voting right and an end to double standard. new zealand was the first country to allow women to vote in 1893. in the united states of america however, women did not enjoy franchise until 1920, and similarly, britain did not allow women franchise until 1928. this political right of women in france was not allowed until 1944, while italy, 1945 and china 1947. nigerian women enfranchisement came in 1959 while in switzerland women were not allowed to vote until 1971 (ajayi, 2004:138). for the first time in history in 1919 the american born lady nancy astor became the first elected women to take her seat in the british parliament after fulfilling certain age and property (johnson, 2003). several national and international documents and human rights mechanisms have been put forward to encourage women‟s participation in politics including the international convention on civil and political rights (1966) and the international convention for the elimination of all forms of discrimination against women (1979), elaborate the nature of women‟s civil and political rights and the steps required to promote greater equality between women and men in this area (kukah, 2003:163; akinboye, 2004:13). the beijing platform for action, the principal international action plan on women‟s rights, contains a section on women in power and decision-making, which states that the empowerment and autonomy of women and the improvement of women‟s social, economic and political status is essential for the achievement of both transparent and accountable government and administration and sustainable development in all areas of the society. on the other hand, since the post-world war ii era, there has been a global explosion of women's activism on behalf of equality, liberation, and better living conditions. they have gained visibility and influence in a wide array of political and economic arenas in the society. this change seems to allow many women to go further; by building up their own careers and support bases, consequently becoming actively involved in politics in their own right. thus women‟s increasing political participation is both a source and a signal of social change (henderson, 2006). paradoxically however, despite the increasing involvement of women in political activities and the acknowledged women‟s crucial role in nation building, the prevailing trend witness a seeming aberration which put limitations on women participation in political activities (akinboye, 2004:14). most the role of women towards political participation in nigeria ibrahim suleiman 20 countries of the world still fall short of the critical mass of 30% of women political representation (ipu, 2005). 2.4 legal framework for women’s political participation human rights, an old concept, are considered to be universal and inalienable, individual, indivisible, interrelated and interdependent. it is a general notion embracing rights that are applicable to individuals, peoples and mankind (agomo, 2004:92). the foundational legal articulation of this right can be found in article 21 of the un‟s 1948 universal declaration of human rights. this has been further formalized and elaborated in the later treaties most notably the 1976 international covenant on civil and political rights (adu, 2008). klein (2005) argues that the declaration is a statement of general principles and since it is not a treaty, the standards of behaviour that it defines have the status of only non-binding norms, but the document is nonetheless of enormous legal and political importance, for it provided the foundation not only for later legal-binding international treaties but also for many national governments‟ rights frameworks. however, the covenant which was ratified almost three decades after the declaration as a treaty imposes some obligations on signatory states and includes some compliance mechanisms. the right to representation and politics of inclusion are the hallmark of civil and political rights (bruce, 2004:105). klein (2005) defines the right to political participation as citizen‟s right to seek to influence public affairs. the right to political participation is spelt out in both article 21 of the declaration and article 25 of the covenant. article 21 of the declaration states that: (1)everyone has the right to take part in the government of his country, directly or through freely chosen representatives. (2) everyone has the right of equal access to public service in his country. (3) the will of the people shall be the basis of the authority of government; this will shall be expressed in periodic and genuine elections which shall be by universal and equal suffrage and shall be held by secret vote or by equivalent free voting procedure (cited in wilkipedia, 2008). 2.5 similarly, article 25 of the covenant states every citizen shall have the right and opportunity, without unreasonable restrictions: (a) to take part in the conduct of public affairs, directly or through freely chosen representatives; (b) to vote and be elected at genuine periodic elections which shall be by universal and equal suffrage and shall be held by secret ballot, guaranteeing the free expression of the will of electors (quoted in steiner, 1988). according to klein (2005), the political right as spelt out in these two articles deserves special attention. whereas the other rights are recognised as natural part of human beings, the declaration recognises political rights within the confine of government and similarly the covenant limits the right to political participation to those with the status of citizen. since citizenship is recognised only within the context of a government and a political community, the right to political participation presupposes a political community with individual members (citizens) and organizational form (government). since the declaration and the covenant conditioned political right on the existence of political institutions, it is concluded that the rights to participation does not exist as a human right per se but only in the context of a political institutions of citizenship and government. women‟s civil and political rights are integral parts of the larger human rights agenda (bruce, 2004:105). the legal framework for women‟ participation in politics is therefore an integral part of the political rights spelt out above in the article 21 and article 25 of the declaration and the covenant respectively. the legal framework for women‟s participation in politics is however, given more vivid expression by some specific international mechanisms and conventions instituted to enhance women‟s involvement in politics. the international convention on civil amd political rights and the international convention for the elimination of all forms of discrimination against women of 1979 (cedaw), elaborates the nature of women‟s civil and political rights and steps required to promote greater involvement of women in politics (okome, 2006). the the role of women towards political participation in nigeria ibrahim suleiman 21 convention in its article 1 bars any distinction, exclusion or restriction made on the basis of sex which has the effect or purpose of impairing or nullifying the recognition, enjoyment or exercise by women, irrespective of their marital status, on the basis of equality of men and women, of human rights and fundamental freedoms in the political, economic, social, cultural, civil or any other field. as defined by the convention, discrimination is symptomatic of a situation where patterns of structural inequality are maintained by rules, norms and procedures that dictate a subordinate role for women in all spheres of society. it stresses the need for a holistic orientation which acknowledges the vital role of women in development and engineers their integration into development processes as equal partners with men (okome, 2006). nigeria signed the convention on 23rd of april 1984 and ratified it without any reservations on 13th of june, 1985, and it ratified the optional protocol to cedaw on the 8th september, 2001 (okome, op.cit; chikwe, 2003). the participation of women in politics and decision-making is one of the central areas of focus of the beijing declaration and platform for action (1995), the principal international action plan on women‟s rights. it reiterates the importance of women empowerment and the improvement of their social, economic and political status to the achievement of both transparent and accountable government and administration and sustainable development in all areas of life (bari, 2005). this is reaffirmed in goal no.3 of the millennium development goals (mdgs) in year 2000 which aims at promoting gender equality and empowering women through eliminating gender disparity at all levels by year 2015. the indicators include ratios of girls to boys in primary, secondary and tertiary education, share of women in wage employment in the nonagricultural sector and proportion of seats held by women in national parliament (omotola, 2007:33; undp, 2008; wilkipedia, 2008) nigeria is also a signatory to the beijing declaration and platform for action adopted by the fourth world conference on women held in beijing on the 15th of september 1995. the declaration aims at achieving greater equality and opportunity for women by removing the obstacles to women's public participation in all spheres of public and private lives through a full and equal share in economic, social, cultural and political decision-making. on the basis of that adoption, the nigerian government constituted the national committee on affirmative action (wikipedia, 2008; anifowose, 2004:210). furthermore, the national policy on women was adopted by the federal government of nigeria in the year 2000. the goal of the policy centres on enhancing the active and meaningful participation of women in the political arena by eliminating all forms of legal, cultural, religious and other discrimination against women, empowering them through enhanced strategic human resource development, integrating women in all sectors of development in accordance with their capabilities and needs and establishing a data bank on the implementation of a comprehensive (national) baseline survey (chikwe, 2003; olojede, 2004:120). at the national level however, the legal framework for women‟s participation in politics in nigeria is, hinged on the provisions of the constitution of the federal republic of nigeria. the 1999 constitution of the federal republic of nigeria by virtue of section 40 guarantees the political rights of every citizen of the country. it states that: every person shall be entitled to assemble freely and associate with other persons, and in particular he may form or belong to any political party, trade union or any other association for the protection of his interests… section 42 of the same constitution states further that: any citizen of nigeria of a particular community, ethnic group, place of origin, sex, religion or political opinion shall not, by reason only that he is such a person be subjected to any form of discrimination. section 77(2) also confers the right to register and to vote for the purpose of election on every citizen that has attained the age of 18 years. a key policy document that supports women‟s participation in political and public life is the national gender policy 2006. the 5th objective of the policy is aimed at achieving minimum threshold of representation for women in order to promote equal opportunity in all the role of women towards political participation in nigeria ibrahim suleiman 22 areas of political, social economic life of the country for women and men (the nigerian cedaw ngo coalition shadow report, 2008). the legal framework for women‟s participation in politics, nigeria inclusive, is thus premised on the ground that women possess the same rights as men to participate in governance and public life (akiyode-afolabi, 2003, babatunde, 2003). there are a number of factors put forward to explain participation of women in politics. these factors are critically perused in the next section. 3. factors affecting women’s political participation women‟s participation and access to formal political power structures vary across countries (bari, 2005). recent literatures on women and politics have identified various factors that affect women‟s participation in politics across the globe. of the factors explored, research finds the following four factors to be particularly important: (1) socioeconomic development; (2) cultural factor; (3) historical legacies stemming from a society‟s cultural and political traditions; and (4) institutional design factors (amadiume, 1997; inglehart & noris, 2003, akioyode-afolabi, 2003; dahlerup, 2005; rai, 2005; alexander & welzel, 2007). 3.1 socioeconomic development alexander & welzel (2007) refer to this as economic modernity. this is the view of the classical development. it focuses on economic development and considers increases in democracy and human choice as direct outcome of economic development (lipset, 1959; rostow, 1960; bell, 1999; ineles & smith, 1974). in relations to gender equality, this approach holds that economic development is central to increasing the pool of women eligible for positions of social power (alexander & welzel, 2007). thus babatunde (2003:6) argues that a country‟s level of development correlates with women‟s participation in politics and decreases existing barriers to political activity and participation. these scholars establish that increased economic development associates with a more broad based distribution of educational and occupational resources. greater access to educational and occupational resources increases women‟s chances of professional development, creating a larger pool of women eligible for power positions such as political office. others note that higher levels of economic development bring more social services to societies. these developmental measures such as increase in per capita, gross domestic product, women in the work force and women literacy positively influence the percentage of women‟s political participation (kenworthy & malami, 1999; reynolds, 19999, welch & studler, 1996; babatunde, 2003). 3.2 cultural factor cultural norms and customary practices have great influence on women‟s political participation. babatunde (2003) defines culture as a socially created phenomenon that is influenced by the history, social experiences and material circumstances of the people. among the cultural ideological factors that affect women‟s political participation is patriarchy system (bari, 2005). patriarchy is characterized by male kinship, permanent marriage and paternal authority (appadorai, 1974:35). fayomi & igbelina-igbokwe (2006) note the influence of patriarchy cultural structure on the social status of the female gender. cain, khan & nahar (1979:406) define patriarchy as a set of social relations with a material base that enables men to dominate women. here, the central focus of power is the father, and the factual importance of motherhood kinship structure and history is denied (amadiume, 1997:72). in other words, patriarchy describes a distribution of power and resources within the family in a manner that men maintain power and control of resources, and women are powerless and dependent on men (oyekanmi, 2004:42). thus, men dominate the political game, and set the standards for evaluation. this negative factor entrench feelings of inferiority complex and other vices that perpetually put women at a disadvantaged position the role of women towards political participation in nigeria ibrahim suleiman 23 (akinboye, 2004:237). additionally, research finding shows gender role ideology which does not only create duality of femininity and masculinity, but also places them in hierarchical fashion in which women are subordinated to men. women also find it hard to participate in politics due to limited time available to them because of their dual roles in the productive and reproductive spheres (bari, 2005). alexander & welzel (2007) and inglehart & noris (2003) however, note a rising gender-egalitarian attitudes that gives rise to an emancipative worldview, reflected in self-expression values that emphasize autonomy of women. according to these scholars, this rise in emancipative orientations consequently leads to increase in women‟s empowerment and political participation throughout society. this perspective highlights changes in modern societies particularly conducive to women‟s empowerment and therefore establishes a link between cultural factor and women involvement in public life. inglehart & norris (2003) find that cultural factor holds real, positive consequences for women empowerment and thus women‟s political participation. 3.3 historical legacies researchers have presented historical legacies potentially capable of affecting women‟s social and political status (omotola, 2007:38). scholars argue that a country‟ developmental trends of social modernization create cultural and institutional legacies that affect societies‟ abilities to improve women‟s lives (krasner 1984; skocpol 1992). alexander & welzel (2007) note that the emergence of institutions, whether cultural or the result of policy, sometimes consists of types of social organization that have a continuing and somewhat determinant influence on phenomena relevant to those institutions far into the future. this influence can take the form of an inertial tendency where institutions affect relevant phenomena that would have otherwise changed due to other social forces (peters 1999). this view considers some measures of path dependent processes capable of affecting gender equality: protestant religious traditions, a long tradition of female suffrage, colonialism and a state tradition of investing into welfarism rather than coercive forces. depending on the nature of a society‟s traditions, religions vary in opportunity for women‟s emancipation (amadiume, 1997; inglehart & norris 2003). for instance, relative to other religious heritages, scholars find that a protestant religious heritage improves the status of women in a country. protestantism holds a tradition particularly hospitable to democratic values, such as respect for individualism, reciprocity and popular sovereignty (inglehart, norris & welzel 2002; inglehart & welzel 2005; reynolds 1999; rule 1987). researchers also approach the impact of religious legacy on women‟s empowerment through measures of publics‟ levels of secularization (inglehart & norris 2003; inglehart & welzel 2005). as societies secularize there is greater deference to rationality and expertise, and this typically gives rise to the modern state and widespread social services. the secularizing trend typically occurs from the pre-industrial through the industrializing phase of modernization. during this transition, traditional units restrictive of women‟s development such as the family and the church lose their authority as individuals place greater emphasis on rationality and individualism (inglehart & norris 2003; inglehart & welzel 2005). in addition to religion, path dependent processes with respect to women‟s suffrage policy may affect the potential to increase women‟s political participation in particular societies. some studies have also stressed the salience of the epoch character of colonialism particularly in african countries. they have argued that colonialism in africa was male dominated and did nothing to deviate from the preclusion of women from the public sphere and their limitation in the economic sphere (omotola, 2007:38). countries with earlier suffragist policies for reforming women‟s formal political exclusion are likely to have a stronger institutional legacy of women‟s formal political inclusion (kenworthy & malami 1999; moore & shackman 1996; ramirez, soysal & shanahan 1997; rule 1981). the role of women towards political participation in nigeria ibrahim suleiman 24 state-financed welfarism policy is another central factor to societies‟ progress in political participation by women. much research confirms that a key barrier to women‟s full social inclusion and autonomy has been and continues to be institutional arrangements that restrict the state‟s role in caretaking and domestic responsibilities (hirschmann 2001; liebert 1999; sainsbury 1996; tronto 2001). welfare policy is capable of alleviating these barriers by expanding the scope of the state‟s involvement in these everyday household necessities through, for instance, state supported childcare. thus, state legacies with respect to welfare policies are an additional form of historical institutionalism that could potentially offset the empowerment modernization brings to women. 3.4 the institutional design factor this view holds that a country‟s institutional characteristics either enable or constrain women‟s political participation (alexander & welzel, 2007). three aspects of the political system find support in this literature: the strength of democracy, the electoral system, and gender electoral quota systems. thus inglehart & norris (2003) submit that democratic institutions that preserve and socialize free and equal citizenship supply women with more rights and more channels for making their voices heard (alexander & welzel, 2007). the impact of institutional variation within democracies on women‟s political involvement has also been considered. most prominent among the arrangements considered is the influence of electoral systems (krook, 2008). electoral systems affect women‟s paths to parliament by structuring party elites‟ incentive or disincentive to run women candidates. in this regard therefore, proportional representation system has been found to have a positive impact on the percentage of women in parliament (pascaud–becane, 1999; the nigeria cedaw ngo coalition shadow report, 2008; rai, 2005; kenworthy & malami 1999; lakeman 1994; norris 1985; paxton 1997; akioyede-afolabi, 2003).this is because these electoral systems have a higher number of seats per district and offer parties a greater chance of winning more than one seat per district. moreover, through greater district magnitude and party magnitude, parties are more likely to choose women candidates for the second seat (matland 1993; rule 1994). thus, because proportional representation electoral systems increase women‟s chances of recruitment and electability despite lower placement on candidate lists, these electoral systems provide greater opportunity for the election of women. finally, with proportional representation electoral system, the greater incentive to balance tickets gives parties greater opportunity to promote gender as an option for challenging other parties. this typically results in a promotion of women‟s inclusion across parties as elites attempt to equalize the playing field by avoiding the appearance of their party‟s marginalization of women voters (matland & studlar 1996; akioyode-afolabi, 2003). as noted by matland (2004), there is a distinct gap in women‟s representation in national legislatures between countries with single-member district electoral systems and those with proportional representation electoral systems. in addition to the role of electoral rules, gender electoral quota systems are institutional mechanisms that consistently, positively mediate the conditions and attitudes that structure women‟s leadership potential. indeed, researchers studying the recent proliferation of quota systems throughout the world have referred to quota systems as “the fast track” to the equal political representation of women (akioyodeafolabi, 2003). over the last three decades, several societies beginning with norway, have introduced some form of a gender electoral quota system in their political bodies for improving the status of women. these quota systems take the form of a constitutional amendment, electoral law or party policy. scholars generally find that the stronger the gender electoral quota system the greater the level of women‟s percentages in political office (dahlerup & freidenvall 2003; caul1999, 2001; kolinsky 1991; matland 1993; studlar & macalister 1998). thus the attributes of democratic institutions, electoral systems, and the degree to which countries adopt gender electoral quota the role of women towards political participation in nigeria ibrahim suleiman 25 systems are the institutional designs that perform mediating role of either improving or hindering women‟s presence in political office (dahlerup 1998; babatunde, 2003). taking the four factors as a whole, economic development, socio-cultural factor, together with historical legacies, as well as various institutional design factors are the likely correlates of various aspects of women‟s participation in politics. what is less clear however, is the degree to which these four factors uniquely influence women‟s participation in political activity. this therefore necessitates a comparative assessment of the same cultural and political predictors on women‟s participation in nigerian politics to confirm the relative degree to which the political environment matters with respect to women‟s attainment of positions of full political empowerment. it is useful to ask whether and to what extent economic development, socio-cultural factor, historical legacies and institutional designs uniquely influence women‟s prominence in nigerian politics. 4. womens’ political participation in nigeria: historical background 4.1 pre-colonial period prior to their colonial experience, the nigerian women played active and productive roles in their respective traditional political governance (akinboye, 2004:236; ajayi, 2007). although women‟s political participation during pre-colonial era was not equal to that of men, the position of women in governance was complementary rather than subordinate (mba, 1982:37; nwankwo, 1996:20 & ikpe, 2004:23). even in the most conservative of societies of nigeria, women contributed tremendously to the development of their societies (awe, 1992:11). in the pre-colonial nigeria, they occupied important roles in the traditional political life and in their different regions, they were actively engaged in politics and held decision-making roles in the governmental institution in their respective regions (kamene, 1991). the extent of women‟s participation in the public sphere in the pre-colonial nigeria however, depended very much on how their particular society was organized, whether in the form of monarchy like the yoruba kingdom or as republican like the igbo tribes (nwankwo, 1999:14). the traditional nigerian society was segregated between genders which enabled the measurement of power and achievements. the complementarity‟s role of women was however embedded in sex segregation, which determined gender position, status and power in the society and provided them their own spheres of operation and control (ikpe, 2004:22). certain political structures, which allowed for power sharing between men and women were articulated and firmly put in place. women for instance, had access to political participation through a complex and sophisticated network of relationship, rights and control of power with men in certain societies, their role were complementary or subordinate in others (olojede, 1990:82). this however, does not mean that women occupied equal roles with men in the society. there were very few women who possessed political power in the precolonial nigeria (awe, 1992). only very few women were initiated into traditional cults such as ogboni, osugbo, ekpo, ekpe, eyo, etcetera. (ojuolape, 2001:1) some notable women in the traditional political governance in the south west nigeria include the erelu, ayaba and olori (king‟s wives”, iyalode (women‟s leader), iyalaje (market women‟s leader), yeye oba (king‟s mother) and iya-olosa (goddess priests), moremi of ife, efusetan of ibadan and emotan. one cannot undermine the significant role of iya afin, iya agan and iya abiye to the palace administrations of the various kingdoms (mba, 1982; nwanckwo, 1999:14) likewise, the influence and contributions of queen amina of zaria to the political development of the northern nigeria‟s emirate and the achievement of kambasa of bony in the dim pre-colonial past are by no means negligible (awe, 1992). the change of government from the hausa aristocracy to the fulani/muslim hegemony however, totally excluded women from the public sphere. after the reign of amina in the pre-islamic past of zaria, there was no woman who sat in the court of any hausa ruler (abubakar, 1992:11). islam made strict division of the spheres for the different genders. women were not to be the role of women towards political participation in nigeria ibrahim suleiman 26 seen in the public spheres (modo1996:99). women‟s participation in public life in benin empire was limited (ikpe, 2004:24). there was no women representation among the various grades of chiefs. men dominated the different craft guilds and even controlled the markets as agents of the benin king. the only important female political figure was the iyaoba (king‟s mother) with her court at uselu. she did not sit in the oba‟s council and as such did not take part in decision making. some of them, such as iyaoba idia, reputed to have contributed personally to the success of esiegie‟s campaigns against idah, were powerful and contributed to the successful reign of their sons (ikpe, 1997:251).they however, did not act as spokespersons for women in benin. in the riverine igbo societies such as onitsha, asaba, osomari and illah, there was the institution of the queen, the omu. though the omu wielded great authority in the society among the women, her position was based on loyalty to the obi (king), thus limiting the power of the office (ekejiuba, 1992:89). nevertheless, the administrations of the community‟s affairs in the igboland was not without due consultation between the men and women groups (nwankwo, 1999:14; ajayi, 2007). despite the lack of sufficient literature and history that captures the relevance of women in that era and the fact that conventional african history provides only fragmentary images of women, the pre-colonial nigeria though a patriarchal society, women were not completely left out of the political scene (ojo, 2003; olojede, 1990:82 & nwankwo, 1999:14)). however, the coming of westernization destroyed their political positions and then marginalized them in the modern political institutions (allen, 1972; sadiqi, 2000:35) 4.2 colonial period women‟s poor participation in politics, like many other problems in nigeria, has a deep root in the system carved and imposed by colonialism (omotola, 2007; lewu, 2005:65). it began with the colonial occupation, starting with the fusion of the three regions (yoruba in the southwest, the igbo in the southeast, and the hausa/fulani in the north) to the nigeria‟s independence and its governance, and then to the post independent nigeria (mba, 1982). colonialism played a significant role in the political participation of women in nigeria. the advent of colonialism and its attendant political and economic subjugation subsequently entrenched the masculinity of politics and subordinated the women under the men (ikpe, 2004:30). colonial administration created a patriarchy government in which women were not allowed to hold any authoritative positions (kamene, 1991). thus, the lack of recognition of the nigerian women political/leadership role in the mainstream politics in nigeria today is traceable to colonial invention (allen, 1972). colonial administration restructured the feminine relevance in governance by divesting the women of their political powers (ajayi, 2007:138). this was exacerbated by the policy introduced in which men were believed to have the potential of activeness in the society; and those that were lucky to receive some education got recruited into the colonial overlords. the colonial administration gender policies eroded female participation both in politics and economy as women were denied both electoral and job opportunities (mba, 1982; olojede, 1999 & ikpe, 2004:30). this practice, to a large extent, served to reinforce and generalize patriarchal values in the country and significantly marked the beginning of low participation of the females in the formal agencies of government, a phenomenon that has continued till date (enemuo, 1999:232). in fact a section of the women in south western nigeria voted for the first time in the nation‟s electoral history in the 1959 general elections, while their northern counterparts were disenfranchised and it was not until 1976, fifty-four years after the elective principle was introduced to nigeria, that the northern women first enjoyed franchise rights (ajayi, 2004:138). in furtherance of the colonial masters‟ attempt to restructure the traditional african economies in order to make them ready market for european manufacturers and sources of cheap raw materials for their factories, only men the role of women towards political participation in nigeria ibrahim suleiman 27 were granted economic power in the production of export crops while the women were left to concentrate on the production of food crops (akiyode-afolabi & arogundade, 2003:77). all these have resulted in gender insensitivity in the design and implementation of public policy and have significantly assisted in perpetuating gender inequality in various gamut of social life. at the same time, the masculinity of politics was so entrenched that the machinery put in place during the colonial period systematically rendered women invisible as they were considered unsuitable for the rigours of public life; hence they were not allowed to vote, to contest elections, to sit in parliament or to be employed in the civil service (akinboye, 2004:237). despite the alienation of women from the mainstream of nigerian politics during colonial administration, the nigerian womenfolk made itself relevant by its contributions to nationalist movements, which constituted vanguards against the colonial administration. women political activism dates back to 1929/30 aba women riot against colonial tax policies. the ngwa women‟s opposition against the municipalisation of their community in 1954, the eastern region women‟s opposition to new school fees in 1958; and the series of protests between 1946and 1958 by the abeokuta women‟s union led by mrs. funmilayo ransome-kuti were invaluable in the country‟s struggle for independence (nwankwo,1996:16). a major landmark achievement in the political development of women during the colonial era was the formulation of a women‟s political party in 1944 spearheaded by mrs. oyinkan abayomi (ojo, 2003; akiyode-afolabi, 2003:11). at the individual levels however, women, notably including funmilayo ransome-kuti, margaret ekpo, gamboare sawaba, participated in the anti-colonial political struggle, and took part in the negotiations for independence (akiyode-afolabi & arogunde, 2003:11). however, the limited gains made by women did not translate into participation in decision making during this colonial period. men dominated in the first political parties while actively depending on material and mobilization support from women. the nigerian national democratic party (nndp), national council of nigeria and the cameroons (ncnc), and nigerian youth movement (nym) garnered varying levels of support from women's groups. however, women did not feature prominently in the leadership of these and other parties during the nationalist era and after independence (ahonsi-yakubu, 2001:151). in the 1958 elections only wurola esan got appointed to the senate of 36 members, while no woman was elected to the 312-member house of representatives and none was in the federal cabinet (nwankwo, 1996:17). 4.3 postcolonial period the low participation of women in politics was also fostered by the nature of postcolonial politics. though women‟s political participation witnessed a rising trend but showed a disturbing low profile participation in political development of nigeria state (aina, 2004:227). the acrimonious politics of the post-independence era was detrimental to women‟s participation. politics and political parties became ethnic, paternalistic and personality based. women were expected to support politicians from their own ethnic area without any consideration whatsoever for their personal interests (ojo, 2003). as party and ethnic allegiance became more important than gender solidarity, women lost their power of collective action, which was important in their agitations during the colonial era (ikpe, 2004:35). from 1960 -1965 there were only two female legislators in the federal parliament and three others in the eastern house of assembly (nwankwo, 1996:17, omotola, 2007:37). four female legislators in the whole of the country were a number that was so negligible as to give women the necessary influence over decision-making. the imposition of military, an era that followed this period from 1966 did not foster the participation of women in politics and very little was heard of women at the helm of affairs (anya, 2003). military rule was an all-male affair and while it lasted women played only a peripheral role (adeleke, 2002). no woman was appointed the role of women towards political participation in nigeria ibrahim suleiman 28 military governor even though there were some qualified women in the military set-up. however, in 1967, when nigeria was divided into 12 states, 1 woman was appointed each as commissioners into east central and lagos, while oyo state had two women commissioners (nwankwo, 1996:17). the constituent assembly of the obasanjo regime in 1975 had no single female members out of its 50 members (babatunde, 2003). it was the era of military dictators who had little regards for the muchcherished constitutional interest balancing. it also disturbed the proper functioning of women organization as pressure groups since they were banned (aina, op.cit:227). women did not feature prominently during the preparations made by the murtala/obasanjo regime for returning power to civilians. no woman was appointed to the fifty-member constitutional drafting committee, very few women were elected into the local government councils during the 1976 elections, and only mrs. janet akinrinade was elected to the constituent assembly. four other women were appointed to the 250 member assembly. the second republic did not witness any significant difference with respects to women political participation despite renewed efforts to give women a chance to contribute to national development (anifowose, 2004:211). although from 1979, women have made desperate efforts to enter into representative politics but with little success, women recorded low representation in the senate, the house of representative and the states house of assembly. only 3 ministers, 1 out 96 senators and 11 out of a total of 450 members of the house of representatives were female (aina, 2004:227). in all the 19 states of the federation, there was no female representation in all the state houses of assembly, neither was there a female chairperson nor councilor at the local government level (omotola, 2007:37). with the collapse of the second republic, women again fizzled out of relevance in the two-year regime of gen mohammed buhari (adeleke, 2002). from the mid-1980s however, the military started appointing a few women now and then to positions of authority. thus the coming of gen ibrahim babangida in 1985 changed the attitude of military rulers to women leadership. one important aspect of the rising profile of women in political life was the phenomenon of first lady syndrome (aina, 2004:227). this however was nothing but mere personal aggrandizement (babatunde, 2003). under this auspices, the better life for rural women was created and was later renamed family economic advancement programme (feap) by the succeeding first lady. 4.4 women’s political participation in nigeria 1999 2015 the forth republic which began in 1999 saw women taking a similar low participation in the nigeria‟s political process. the 1999 general elections saw only 181 positions worn by women out of the 11, 881 available positions throughout the country (akiyode-afolabi, 2003:63). the elections saw only five (4.6%) women out of 109 senators elected into the senate, while 13 (3.6%) women were elected into the house of representatives of 360 seats i.e. 6.3 percent women representation in the national parliament (ajayi, 2007:139). while there were 36 gubernatorial seats, no female featured. nigeria had only one female deputy governor – chief kofoworola akerele-bucknor, deputy governor of lagos state (1999 -2003), and of the 990 seats available for the states house of assembly in the country only 12 (1.21%) women were elected (adu, 2008:27). at the local level, out of the 774 local government chairpersons across the nation, only 9 were women and only 143 out of the 8,700 councillors were women (babatunde, 2003; anifowose, 2004:210). the poor performance of women in this election was the basis for the national summit for all women politicians organised by the international human rights law group, centre for development and population activities (cedpa) and gender and development action (gada) held on june 28, 2002 in abuja. the objective of the summit was to enhance women‟s active participation in nigerian politics (akiyodeafolabi & arogundade, 2003:64). despite all efforts geared at improving women‟s participation in politics in nigeria, the 2003 elections the role of women towards political participation in nigeria ibrahim suleiman 29 did not witness any significant improvement. in the elections that held that year (2003) only 21 (6.1%) women out of the 339 member worn seats in the house of representatives. similarly, of 109 senatorial seats, only 3 (2.7 %) women were elected in to the senate, which is just 8.8 percent women representation in the national parliament (undp report, 2003:47; ojo, 2003:16). of the 36 gubernatorial seats available, no woman was elected and of the 990 seats available for the states house of assembly in the country, 38 (3.84%) women were elected (adu, 2008:27). in 2007 only 25 (6.9% ) women out of the 358 seats were elected into the house of representatives and 9 (8.3%) women out of the 109 seats were elected in to the senate, that is 7.3 percent women representation in the national parliament while, out of the 36 gubernatorial seats available, no woman was elected and of the 990 seats available for the states house of assembly in the country, 54 (5.5%) women were elected (nigeria cedaw ngo coalition shadow report, 2008:10). the records from the database of the independence national electoral commission (inec) showed that in the 2007 elections a total 7160 candidates (both men and women) contested in the april elections. of this number, only 628 women representing 8.8% of the total candidates participated. a total 3141 candidates contested for seats in the national assembly (799 candidates for the senate and 2342 candidates for the house of representatives). of this number, only 209 or 6.7% were women (59 or 7.4% women for senate and 150 or 6.4% women for house of representative) (okocha, 2007). the analysis above indicates a 2%, 4% and 6% women representation in 1999, 2003 and 2007 respectively. however, the trend shows an improvement in women representation. this was due to the conscious affirmative efforts of the obasanjo administration to involve more women in his political administration. as a result, political parties took a decision to waive for the women the payment of pre-registration levies for political aspirants in the country. in addition the national summit for all women politicians organised by the international human rights law group, centre for development and population activities (cedpa) and gender and development action (gada) held on june 28, 2002 in abuja with the objective of enhancing women‟s active participation in nigerian politics and the awareness campaigns by these and other gender-related organisations and ngos spurred women in the federation to vie for political candidature in the 2003 and 2007 general elections (akiyode-afolabi & arogundade, 2003:64). in the history of nigeria, there has been no woman ever elected as state governor, while only 6 women have ever been elected as deputy governors (from lagos, ogun, osun, imo, plateau and anambra states). thus the perception that democracy would automatically boost women political participation has not been validated after nine years of return to civilian rule. nigeria still falls short of the desired result of giving females the opportunities and access to opportunities to advance socially, economically and politically ((ojo, 2003: babatunde, 2003; the nigeria cedaw ngo coalition shadow report, 2008:3, adu, 2008:27). 4.5 theoretical framework many political scientists find systems theory as a relevant tool for analysis of multicultural political phenomenon. frank and gills (1993:17) for instance, argues the case for applying system theory across disciplines because it provides a “human centric‟‟ alternative to the systematic distortions of eurocentrism” which could help us see „a common river and unity of history in a single world system (that is) multicultural in origin and expression.‟ in this view, researchers in the field of social sciences have shown the applicability of this approach to the study of political geography, development studies, gender, ethnic and race relations, international relations and international political economy. thus, covington (1998:4) argues that systems theory is all-purpose in that it takes into account numerous systems that interact with other systems which help a researcher to focus attention on important component that might otherwise go unnoticed. he argues further that the role of women towards political participation in nigeria ibrahim suleiman 30 systems theory gains a holistic view of an area of human activity, taking the environment in which a phenomenon is observed as part of this holistic approach. the development of systems theory for the study of politics however, was first conceived by david easton in 1953 (varma, 1975:194). his work was a continuation of the search by social scientists for accurate predictions, using general laws that have universal application for a systemic interpretation of society which was started by a sociologist, karl manheim (newman, 1972:13; chilcote, 1994:123). according to the eastonian systems theory, a political system is viewed as made up of interrelated units that function together to make a whole. his concept of political life is that of “a system of behaviour embedded in an environment to the influence of which the political system itself is exposed and in turn reacts (kaplan, 1968:150). one aspect of the political system cannot therefore be understood thoroughly without studying the other interrelated units. at the centre of eastonian systems theory is therefore, the formulation of a general framework, a focus on the whole system rather than merely on its parts, an awareness of environmental influences upon the system. thus denhard & denhard (2006:215) defines a system as a set of regularized interactions configured or bounded in a way that differentiate and separate them from other actions that constitute the system environment. similarly, kaplan (1968:150) defines systems theory as the study of a set of interrelated variables as distinguished from the environment of the set. the theory considers political activity as essentially involving the political system, the input and the output and the environment. easton views the political system as the basic unit of analysis while the intra-system behaviour of various systems is seen as principal areas of research (varma, 1975:194). he defines the political system as that system of interactions in any society through which binding or authoritative allocations are made and implemented (chilcote, 1994:127). the environment consists of the objective conditions and forces that generate the demand and support input. demands are expressions of opinion that an authoritative allocation with regards to a particular subject matter should or should not be made by those responsible for doing so. supports are actions or orientation prompting or resisting a political system. also, the system adapts to its environment through growth and elaboration of its structure made possible by negative entropy. such a system is also self-regulating through feedback loops which are used by the decider or system decision-maker to achieve its goals and to maintain some sort of dynamic equilibrium (easton, 1965). according to this concept, inputs in the form of demands (expectations) and support approach the political system. these inputs (demands and supports) become issues for discussion and resolution. demands drive the motor of politics, and politics operates to convert demands into authoritative policy outputs. inputs in this way are processed within the political system during the so-called conversion process and made into binding decisions and policy actions for all members of society in the form of laws and provisions (outputs) (ikelegbe, 2004:36; denhard & denhard, 2006:215). the actual conversion of input to output is effected by the various governmental institutions expressly designed for these ends. these easton referred to as "black box" into which inputs stream and out of which outputs emerge. these outputs in turn create reactions within society and feedback. outputs that are deemed satisfactory and met the demands of some members within the system generate renewed supports and put to rest the original demands that set the conversion process into motion. outputs that are judged inadequate may generate negative consequences by eroding supports and dangerously intensifying the level of demands or resulting to new demands on the system. outputs need to travel full-circle and return, via the feedback loop, to the input side of the conversion process (rosenbloom, 1993:159; olawuyi, 2004:33). easton analytical framework views the political system as continuously operating mechanism, with inputs the role of women towards political participation in nigeria ibrahim suleiman 31 (demands and supports) going in, and output (authoritative decisions and actions) coming out. according to him, political life forms an open system; open to influences from its environment. the framework however, includes regulatory mechanisms for preventing demand overloads and for maintaining the smooth operation of the system. (newman, 1972:497; kaplan, 1968:157; mahler, 2003:13). thus the eastonian system theory involves a general framework, a focus on the whole system rather than merely on its parts, an awareness of environmental influences upon the system, and a recognition of the differences between the political life in equilibrium and in disequilibrium (chilcote, 1994:127). eaton‟s systems theory is also being referred to as input-output analysis (mahler, 2003:13). this suggests that the output in form of decisions, policies and actions within the political system is largely a result of the inputs (demands and supports) exerted upon the political system. although the view by ikelegbe (2006:37) that some output may be a result of the political system without input from the environment cannot be completely overruled. it is noted at this juncture, that gabriel almond‟s structural-functionalism approach shares some similar characteristics with eastonian systems theory in that both emphasize on the whole system as the unit of analysis and views a society as a system of mutually interdependent parts and a change in one segment of a society results in corresponding change in other segments of the society (malinowski 1944:75; merton, 1949 & radcliffe-brown, 1950). however, structural-functional teleological assumptions which cannot be scientifically investigated; and its implicit philosophy with a conservative bias toward system maintenance and order rather than change, present some points of departure from the systems theory. thus critiques believe that almond‟s structuralfunctionalist model presents a static model of society and as a consequence cannot account for change, and that it overemphasizes integration and therefore fail to deal with dysfunction (holt, 1968:87; chilcote, 1994:138 & newman, 1972). the adoption of systems theory as the theoretical framework for this study will enhance our understanding of women as subsystem of the nigerian supra-system whose involvement in the political affairs of the system are to be seen as equally important as other sectors of the society. political participation is however, a behavioural pattern interconnected with some other factors within the individuals. furthermore, political participation, using the systems theory, is an open system, open to the influence of some factors embedded in its environment – the society. thus women‟s political participation is a function of some certain factors in the environment which include socioeconomic variables such as the standard of living measured by per capita income and gross domestic product, access to educational and occupational resources et cetera. another environmental factor is the cultural ideological factor. most often, the behavioural pattern in a society is guided by the norms and customary practices obtained in that society; so also is women‟s political participation. the historical legacies such as long tradition of female suffrage, religious traditions etc also constitute environmental factors on which women‟s political participation responds and reacts to. of immense significance are the institutional design factors. these include the strength of the country‟s democracy, the electoral system and gender electoral system. all these factors constitute the institutional design environment that affects women‟s political participation. put together, these four factors highlighted above are significant factors within the environment that greatly impact on women‟s political participation in nigeria and which as an open system is being affected by them. the use of systems theory for the analysis of women‟s political participation thus places before this research work, the immense importance of going deeper into the problems of women‟s political participation. it helps this research in finding out factors and influences to which women‟s political participation in nigeria is open, the role of women towards political participation in nigeria ibrahim suleiman 32 determine the boundaries between one system and another, and speculate as how far the influences that creep through this boundary line are case of damage or destruction to the system and how far they are helpful in maintaining it. finally, it helps to understand what concept of maintenance would involve, whether stability, equilibrium or survival itself. the study of the challenges of women participation in politics will therefore, not be thorough without the understanding of the influence of these interrelated issues (the economic aspect, socio-cultural background and the political structure of the political system) within the country. all of these are viewed as interdependent in interaction where a change in these elements induces a change in the pattern or level of women‟s political participation. while other theories mentioned above fail in one way or the other to look at political reality from a holistic perspective, systems theory dissects political phenomenon as a holistic interconnected unit of the general society. the theory views a political system from a holistic perspective being characterized by the interactions of its components. it is nevertheless, needful to point out that easton‟s system theory is not free from some certain loopholes. the theory has been flawed for never realizing its potential as a theoretical framework capable of explaining the operation of the political system (newman, 1972:497). furthermore, systems theory like any other theories has been criticized as a mere map of reality and not the reality itself and like most analogies, it is imperfect and exactness is not always to be found in some explanations (spiro, 1968). however, these flaws notwithstanding, systems theory still enhance our comprehensive theoretical understanding of this research work women‟s political participation in nigeria. 4.6 women and nigerian politics in the fourth republic, 1999-2015 the fourth republic began on may 29, 1999 following successful transition programme initiated by the former head of state of nigeria, gen. abdulsalam abubakar. the process that led to the birth of the republic began in 1998 after the controversial death of the then nigerian military dictator, gen. sanni abacha. gen. abacha initially initiated a transition program that would have translated him from a military dictator to a civilian president. this was not realized due to his unexpected death on june 8, 1998 (akinbi and adesote, 2014:103). following his death, general abdulsalam abubakar became the new head of state. he immediately announced that he would hand over power to a democratically elected president on may 29, 1999. as a follow up to the announcement, general abdulsalam dissolved the existing five political parties registered by the abacha regime. he voided all the elections that were conducted, and set up another electoral body known as independent national electoral commission (inec) (akinbi and adesote, 2014:101). the ban on political parties was lifted, and political prisoners were released from detention facilities. the constitution was modelled after that of the ill-fated second republic which saw the westminster system of government jettisoned for an american presidential system. the electoral body was set up initially to grant provisional registration to nine political parties, with the condition that only those that had more than 10% of the votes in at least 24 out of the 36 states of the federation in the local government elections would qualify to contest the subsequent state and federal elections (akinbi and adesote, 2014:104). eventually, the only three political parties that made the cut and were registered are people‟s democratic party (pdp), all nigeria people‟s party (anpp) and alliance for democracy (ad). elections were set for april 1999. in the widely monitored 1999 elections, former military ruler general olusegun obasanjo was elected on the platform of pdp. on 29 may 1999, olusegun obasanjo was sworn in as president and commander in chief of the federal republic of nigeria (akinbi and adesote, 2014:104). since the inception of the current democratic dispensation in 1999, concerted efforts have been made by women‟s groups, women advocates and activists, civil society organisations, nigerian government and international agencies and donor communities to increase the role of women towards political participation in nigeria ibrahim suleiman 33 women‟s participation in both political and public life. although there is no constitutional provision for the office of the first lady, nigeria has paraded several first ladies in the fourth republic and many amongst them played roles that made them prominent. however, statistics revealed very low, disproportionate representation of women in governance. this situation falls well below the recommended 30% of the beijing platform for action in 1995 and 35% recommendation of national policy on women adopted in july 2000 (odi, 2012:3.) although the nigerian democracy since 1999 provided opportunity for women‟s participation in politics, the reality is that the place of women in elective and appointive position with the sixteen years of democratic rule was still low. but, it was better than during the colonial and second republic. this very low representation of women in governance can be attributed to several factors which will be interrogated later in this paper. there is no doubt that nigerian women participated virtually in all electoral process in the country since 1999. women and nigerian politics: an appraisal of 2015 general elections this section interrogates the extent of women involvement in the 2015 general elections. areas of their participation include registration, voting, campaigns, contest and so on. it argues that in spite of the increasing number of nigerian women in politics, the country‟s politics is still largely dominated by men. the challenges facing the active participation of nigerian women in politics such as cultural factor, lack of internal democracy among political parties, gender discrimination, and lack of fund and so on are also analysed in descriptive and analytical manner. the 2015 general elections allow democratic nations a chance to celebrate the rebirth of values of popular representation of the interest of the people. nigerians have, through the recent 2015 general elections, celebrated this important aspect of democracy. more importantly, the loss of an election by an incumbent nigerian president, dr. goodluck jonathan to an opposition candidate and the acceptance of the unprecedented situation signify the coming of age of an ideal democracy (the guardian april 2, 2015:19). the development showed that democracy has actually been consolidated in the country. fundamentally, our concern here is how this process has advanced the political status of women as well as their role in the unfolding scenario. the outcome of the 2015 general elections has been argued to be the most expensive in african history (the guardian april 14, 2015:20). meanwhile, it has not indicated a marked departure from the entrenched „tradition‟ of circumscribing women's role in the political engineering process of even the „benefits‟ accruing to them for their efforts. gender cleavages still dictates who wins and who losses election. however, modest progress especially within the more conservative cultural and religious enclaves is exploding myths about the incongruity between politics and gender (ogunsola, 1993:77). as these women are tried and proven, the trust of the public and the corollary legitimacy of gender representation grow. there are grounds to argue that the representation of women is self-producing and selfsustaining, manifesting as both a catalyst and a consequence of their inclusion. a close examination of the electioneering processes and the voting pattern of the 2015 general elections will assist in validating this position. electioneering process is made up of the entire or series of activities engaged in by the persons who have agreed to submit themselves to the elections, their political parties, groups, communities, political associations, friends, families and others in order to influence the anticipated preference of the electorate or choosers positively. simply put, electioneering encompasses all the activities that ginger electorates to support candidates in elections (akinwalere, 2012:10). the electioneering process in nigeria starts with registration of voters in which nigerian women participated actively (inec, 2014). this was accompanied by awareness programs conducted by different kinds of agencies, especially on the importance of voters‟ registration. in a nutshell, a lot of agencies went all out to facilitate mass the role of women towards political participation in nigeria ibrahim suleiman 34 enlightenment and multi-media campaigns on voter education and promote citizen awareness in order to increase voter turnout during the election and thereby promote electoral and governance accountability, even beyond the elections. the role of the nigerian police and other security agencies cannot be underestimated here. it was categorically stated during the conference organised on the 8th april, 2015 by the nigerian police that the success or failure of any election depends on the stakeholders like inec, political parties, election observers, media, the nigerian police and other security agencies performing their duties effectively and efficiently as expected (the new dawn, april 10, 2015) organisations like the international republican institute (iri), cedpa and united nations (un) worked with women in major states and cities to spread the awareness of the need for women‟s leadership and to sharpen skills. through strategic planning and advocacy workshops, participants expand their political education skills and are encouraged to individually speak out. the democratic governance for development project, implemented by united nations development project (undp) in partnership with the nigerian government trained over 2,043 female politicians and candidates in preparation for electoral processes at both national and state levels. focused programmes, like those organized by the iri and undp, truly make an impact on female political engagement (undp, 2014). towards this, the nigerian women trust fund supported the „preparation towards the 2015 general election: enhancing citizen participation through civil society organisations‟ at a conference in abuja, nigeria on 8th april, 2014. the meeting is one of the many fora for the civil society organisations (csos) to actively engage with the independent national electoral commission (inec) enroute to a fairer 2015 election process (onyekwelu, 2014:1). also, the trust fund whose multimedia campaign focuses on the benefits of increased women‟s political participation; the women‟s political education session conducted by the non-partisan women in politics forum to increase women‟s chances to run successful campaigns for office. it should be noted that inec introduced an easily accessible means of continuous voter registration via email and sms, and called on the help of cso‟s to educate the voters on its use. the women took advantage of this and registered enmasse towards the 2015 general elections to make up the total number of 68,833,476 registered voters in the country, both male and female (inec, 2014). the resident electoral commissioner (rec) of rivers state, dame gesila o. khan observed in a paper on how inec supports women participation in the 2015 elections, the poor participation of women in politics vis-à-vis their numerical strength and relevance in governance has propelled the commission to support them both as voters and candidates. she opined that “available statistics show that over 49% of the nigerian population are women, yet only 7% are involved in governance”, adding that nigeria has a huge resource base of women whose contributions are currently not being enjoyed”. other reasons she advanced for supporting women include their equal constitutional rights to political participation as men, increasing their number in governance to fulfil nigeria‟s local and international commitments for gender parity among others (inec admin, 2015). mrs dame judith amaechi, the wife of the governor of rivers state also encouraged the youths to shun violence as 2015 general elections as it gather momentous, that the youths must intensify their efforts to educate and re-orient themselves against violence and from all forms of victimisations. with this, the use of youths for violence was minimised during the 2015 general elections (elendu report, thursday 12, 2015). a lot of women leaders and advocates were involved in the electioneering process of the 2015 general elections. campaigns and rallies when the 2015 general elections were approaching, candidates from various political parties launched their campaigns in full swing. the nigerian women participated actively in the 2015 general elections campaigns and rallies. the women came all out to support the candidates of their choice to support them in campaigns and rallies. dame patience jonathan and hajia aishat buhari campaigned rigorously for their the role of women towards political participation in nigeria ibrahim suleiman 35 spouses. dame patience jonathan was seen severally at campaigns for the return of her husband while hajiya aisha buhari appeared for the first time at a campaign rally on the 13th of january, 2015 at the m.k.o abiola stadium, abeokuta, ogun state. she engaged in campaigns that further confirmed her support for her husband. she was involved in mobilising women to vote for her husband and engaged the crowd at rallies on issues and promises by her husband (the news magazine, 2015.13). she also demonstrated her passion for the development of nigerian women at a campaign rally in edo state, where she assured women that her husband would initiate policies that would guarantee their living standard. also, the nasarawa state governor‟s wife, hajiya salamatu al-makura called on the women in the country to see the postponement of election by six weeks as opportunity to go and collect their permanent voters card (pvc) when she played host to some women groups that paid her a courtesy visit in her office in lafia (news agency of nigeria, feb. 19, 2015). in buttressing the fact that women participated actively in the campaign rallies of 2015 general elections, women and youths numbering over 5,000 staged a mega rally in support of apc presidential flag bearer, gen. muhammadu buhari and his running mate, prof. yemi osinbajo. the rally took place simultaneously in afikpo local government area and abakaliki, the state capital. they matched through ebonyi apc campaign headquarters along old enugu road through major streets in the two cities, chanting songs in support of the apc standard bearers (osun defender, 2015). all these revealed the level of women involvement in the 2015 general elections. they also featured in the cultural events and entertainment, mobilization, catering and event managements as well as in clerical duties.furthermore, in aisha buhari‟s efforts in mobilizing women and youths to support and vote for her husband during the campaign period, she reiterated her gratitude to the efforts of the women during the 2015 general elections that brought her husband to power. in her speech during the „appreciation dinner‟ organised recently at the government house, abuja for women and youths on the success of the campaigns to team work of the women and youths that helped vote her husband into office. with her agenda on „focusing on women issues‟ the wife of the president hoped to see more women in the legislature, from the local level, while she also observed the decline of women in the legislature as opined in the body of this paper, aisha buhari hopes to help reverse the situation and believed that empowerment from the ward level would better affect ordinary women on the streets. she also quoted people saying that her husband earned up to „four million votes‟ as a result of her campaigns (the news magazine, 2015.16). this indicates to a large extent the importance of the role of women during campaigns and rallies for their husbands. on the other hand, it has also been said in some quarters that the role of dame patience jonathan during the 2015 general election campaigns contributed to her husband‟s defeat at the polls. however, with high level of participation of women in the electoral processes, the following tables below however indicate the level of representation of women in the 2015 elections in nigeria. 5. women participation in elective positions 5.1 the presidential professor oluremi sonaya, the first woman to ever qualify as a presidential candidate in nigeria came on board in the 2015 general elections. she was involved in a primary with three other aspirants and emerged as the party‟s nominee as the presidential candidate of the party. the presidential result revealed that women participation can actually influence the politics of the country. the only female candidate polled some votes in all the states of the country. the result showed some reasonable votes where male candidates were unable to get as much. for example, in nasarawa state where citizens popular party (cpp) candidate polled four votes, she polled forty eight votes. also, the total number of votes she secured surpasses that of hope democratic party and united democratic party (udp) parties during the election. while the total number of votes for hope was the role of women towards political participation in nigeria ibrahim suleiman 36 7,393 and udp was 9,147 votes, kowa party had 12,524 votes (the punch, april 1, 2015). with this development, experts and gender activists have continuously advocated the active participation of women in governance for the good of society. the result of the just concluded 2015 general elections in the country has however, not shown improved women representation in elective positions in the country. it should be noted that out of the fourteen candidates that contested for the seat of the president, the only woman amongst the contenders came out in the twelveth position. just as men have always dominated the national assembly, the 2015 election result does not present a different picture in the number of women who will represent their constituencies in the next four years. however, many nigerians saw in the audacious candidacy the possibility of real change and a clear departure from what the country experienced so far as a nation. 5.2 the gubernatorial the gubernatorial candidate of the all progressive congress, apc in taraba state aisha jumai al-hassan would have made history in the last gubernatorial election in the state as the first woman to scale the hurdles of electioneering campaign and break the jinx that has befuddled nigerian women over the years from emerging successful at the polls as governors, but for the outcome of the election which was not in her favour in the gubernatorial election. „mama taraba‟ as she was fondly called, almost made it but then, the near success syndrome that has been the lot of many nigerian women in politics cut short her joy. her expectations were high that she would emerge successful considering the direction of some results earlier reeled out by inec. but suddenly, the result of the election was declared inconclusive and then, a re-run that finally dashed her hope when the pdp candidate was declared winner. 5.3 the legislative table 1. senate year number of seats and percentages number of seats men % women % 1999 109 106 97.2 3 1.8 2003 105 96.3 4 3.7 2007 100 91.7 9 8.3 2011 102 93.6 7 6.4 2015 101 92.7 8 7.3 source: the nigerian cedaw ngo coalition shadow report (2008), new york, united nations committee on elimination of all forms of discrimination against women. adapted from ojo, john sunday (2013) in all, eight women made it to the 109 members‟ senate as opposed to the seven elected in 2011. three of the eight women senators are of the all progressive congress (apc) while the rest five are from the people democratic party (pdp). the 2015 general elections was able to add one female to the seven in the 2011senate. this is still far from what is expected of a balanced assembly table 2. house of representative year total no of seats and percentages number of seats men % women % 1999 360 347 96.4 13 3.6 2003 339 318 94.2 21 5.8 2007 360 333 92.5 27 7.5 the role of women towards political participation in nigeria ibrahim suleiman 37 2011 360 335 93.1 25 6.9 2015 360 346 96.1 14 3.9 source: the nigerian cedaw ngo coalition shadow report (2008), new york, united nations committee on elimination of all forms of discrimination against women. adapted from ojo, john sunday (2013) the table above indicate a drop from the 2011 general elections. there was a steady increase in women representation in the house of representatives since the inception of the fourth republic in 1999. but during the 2015 general elections, the percentage of women representation dropped from 25% to 14%. this is not a good development. however, there is this hope that the new government will compensate the women in the appointive position like the president jonathan administration did for the women folk. table 3. state houses of assembly year total number of seats and percentages number of seats men % women % 1999 978 966 98.8 12 1.2 2003 951 912 96 39 4.0 2007 900 843 94.2 57 5.8 2011 832 93.1 68 6.9 2015 source: the nigerian cedaw ngo coalition shadow report (2008), new york, united nations committee on elimination of all forms of discrimination against women. adapted from ojo, john sunday (2013) na – not available tables 3 reveal that in 1999 house of assembly elections, women constitute 1.2% while the men folk comprise 98.8%; in 2003, women were 4% while men constitute 96%. in 2007 women were 5.8% while men were 94.2%. with little increase, women were 5.8% in 2011 while men were 93.1%. the 2015 general elections reveal that the senate has 7.3% of women 5.4 deputy governorship position the gubernatorial elections produced four women deputy governors. they are oluranti adebule (lagos state), mrs yetunde onanuga (ogun state), ipalibo banigo (rivers state) and cecilia ezeilo (enugu state). it is disheartening to observe that only few women emerged winners in the various positions they contested for both at the party primaries and in the general elections. despite improved political consciousness of women and the various objectives of the national gender policy, it is disappointing that women still occupy less than eight percent of elective positions at all levels of governance in the country. the “domino theory” of patriarchy and masculinity which predominantly characterised the nigerian society is still a dominant force that controls the entire polity (oke, 2013:67). men still exclusively dominate nigeria‟s political landscape and this reflects in the gap in the number of seats won in general elections from 1999 till date on the basis of gender as captured by the tables above. be that as it may, women have benefitted more in selective or appointive positions since 1999 and in fact, in some instances, they have been compensated with 35% inclusion in all appointive positions (oke, 2013:67). women have occupied many sensitive appointive positions which have expectedly improved their voices in public affairs. for example, dr okonjo iweala (who served as minister of finance and coordinating minister for the nigerian the role of women towards political participation in nigeria ibrahim suleiman 38 economy), no doubt, has played significant role in not only the political economy of nigeria, she has also set a pace at the international scene. in a nutshell, the empirical evidences as given above depicts the potency or otherwise of the contribution of women in the formation and restructuring of the nigerian economy and politics in general. it then means that women can play active roles in shaping the direction of nigerian politics even far beyond the imaginations of the male folk. by any standard, however, women participate in politics as voters, party supporters and usually attend political rallies in large number. some even run for top political offices (the example of sarah jibril and professor oluremi sonaya of the kowa party who contested for the office of president with goodluck jonathan and muhammadu buhari respectively and hon. mulikat who unsuccessfully (albeit robustly) vied for the seat of speaker, house of representative is apt in this direction). the 2006 census puts nigerian women at about half the population of the entire country (channels tv, 2012 august 2). despite this numerical advantage and the massive participation in voting, less than 20% of political offices are held by women. for all intents and purposes, it appears that the nigerian situations seem to defy the political theory that political power derives from political participation because women participate fully in elections in nigeria but without full representation (jibrin and salihu, 2004:) nigerian women have about the lowest representation of 5.9% in the national legislature when compared to most other african countries. for example, uganda has 34.6%, south africa (43.2%), ethiopia (27.7%), cameroun (20%), niger (12.3%) and dr congo (8.0%) (daily times, may 18, 2012). for nigeria women, particularly in areas of political representation in governance the percentage is 7%, the lowest in the world (vanguard newspaper, january 21, 2013). women representation in nigeria politics has, over the years, been less than encouraging. this poses a challenge and narrows the chances of getting more women in decision-making structures. women have actually proved their strength and competence in the society in all spheres even in male dominated professions but women involvement in public decision making processes in the emergent fourth republic in nigeria has been characterized by low representation. instructively, women have particularly demanded the implementation of affirmative actions towards the integration of at least 35% of women in all elective positions and in fulfilment of united nations agenda for gender mainstreaming (oni, 2014:107). women political empowerment and development as enshrined in nigeria‟s national gender policy should be adopted. it is useful to mention that globally, women representation has increased from 13% to 18% (igbuzor, 2014:77). but it is worrisome to note that while increase in africa is phenomenon from 10% to 17%, the growth rate in nigeria remains stunted and even declining. the clamour for the attainment of the 35% affirmative action for women political integration has remained a far cry from what is obtainable in other continents. igbuzor, 2014 attempted a comparative assessment thus: burundi has 30% quota for women representation in the constitution while there is 50% local representation in south africa local government. african national congress (anc) has 30% women representation enshrined in the party‟s constitution. a comparative study of election results from 1999-2015 reveals vividly that elective positions still elude women despite huge investments in mobilization, advocacy, lobbying and many others. however, it is impressive to observe that women public consciousness has improved significantly in the fourth republic. more women have put themselves forward in virtually every position to be contested for in the current political dispensation unlike the situation previously. women political consciousness was particularly fascinating and impressive in the 2015 general elections. but this has not translated to meaningful inclusion in the political process as expected. as a result, it would be necessary to look into the challenges facing the involvement of women in the nigerian the role of women towards political participation in nigeria ibrahim suleiman 39 politics and which has also affected their representation in the 2015 general elections. the challenges facing the nigerian women in politics over the years, nigerian women have continued to record very poor performances in elective political offices. this is largely due to the sentimental attachment on feminine gender. although they have been playing crucial role in political life of the country, this has not yielded results in terms of their performances when it comes to elective offices. the following are some of the challenges considered to be affecting the women in elective positions: cultural and religious factors culture and religion are strong factors inhibiting women involvement in politics in nigeria. the socio-political and religious values constrained women to be fully involved in political participation, especially in the northern nigeria where purdah system is more pronounced. even in other climes there are also inhibiting socio-cultural practices like polygamy where the husband in yorubaland will have a favourite among his wives who represents him in some occasions. gender imbalance nigeria as a federation operates the federal character principle which is the attempt to eschew group imbalance in public institutions and affairs. the definition of that “group” does not include gender in the conception and implementation of the principle. understandably, there are legal provisions which tend to guarantee the equality of all individual and groups including women. but there is no legally backed affirmative action to promote gender balance. this has been fostering discrimination against women in employment in government and the private sectors. this may be as a result of patriarchy, which sees the man as the breadwinner and head of the family and must, therefore, be given preference over women in employment (jegede, 1994: 101). the military is a good example where women were excluded in the combatant corps thereby automatically excluding them in high-powered political decision-making in the organisation. 5.5 lack of internal democracy political parties in nigeria are fond of selecting a consensus candidate as flag bearers of the party during the elections. democracy is not usually allowed to play its full part in elective positions. in a situation whereby a candidate is highly favoured, the political leaders will not allow contest to have its full sway. within a period of time, they would have declared a consensus candidate to the disappointment of other candidates who are willing and even in some cases more qualified for the position. 5.6 lack of funds finance is a major factor for the survival of every organisation. it is the bedrock upon which successful institution rests. first, to understand the financial problem of women in nigerian politics, we have to fathom the type of politics in nigeria. politics in nigerian parlance could be understood within the framework of monetization. any political contestant must have prepared to acquire the entire necessary wherewithal to make him or her successful in the electoral contest. the cost of running electoral contestation in nigeria is too exorbitant for women to bear (this includes; party nomination form which runs into millions of naira, election campaigns, gifts to god fathers, people mobilization and money for political party leaders, etc). this financial burden discourages women to run in democratic contests. women issues women are said to be their own worst enemies. an article by women in higher education pointed out that relationships are central to women‟s lives and they expect their relationships to be on a level playing field, and that when something – anything affects this balance, such as promotion, it raises feelings of insecurity. the article underscores the reasons why on entering a gathering, women quickly, but silently, do an assessment and judge themselves on looks, age and sex appeal. (punch 4: 2015). though women hate to admit it, they still judge others on these. when women find themselves in a marginalised position within the family, they may react by trying to be extremely good, or go on the offensive to prove they are smarter and better than other the role of women towards political participation in nigeria ibrahim suleiman 40 women. this implies that women are more likely to judge their abilities against those of other female colleagues than males. generally, jealousy is usually the problem but it has not been subjected to any serious research. it‟s just a feeling, and women themselves do confess to it. this is manifested in the “pull her down-syndrome” where women condemn female political aspirants by calling them names, assassinate their character and engage in smear campaigns thereby making women enemies of one another. casual observation will support that women while in authority may be a little harsh over their female counterparts, and men are not spared sometimes. this also is a major challenge to women voting for their counterparts in politics and this could have been to a large extent a factor responsible for low women support for oluremi sonaya of kowa party as a presidential candidate in the 2015 general elections. violent nature of nigerian politics the challenge of violence in nigerian politics, which has been part and parcel of nigerian democracy pose an obstacle to women‟s interest in party politics. during the periods of campaigns, the political atmosphere is usually characterised by waves of assassinations, thuggery, murders, arson, looting and kidnappings. the incidence of mrs emily olufunke omope-aborishade also known as „ms thatcher‟ who was bathed with acid in ekiti state in 2002 for her unwavering determination in the state politics was a case in point. the physical battles which often accompany electoral contests in nigeria need to be addressed and this can be spearheaded by civil society organisations. women education the problem of women education generally starts with lack of access to education like men. once the girl child is withdrawn untimely from school for socio-economic reasons, the boy continues to go further. this deprived most nigerian women from formal education. meanwhile, education is a necessary pre-requisite for securing high-powered jobs in the public and private sectors. without this important „ingredient‟, women are unable to put in their best towards personal and national development. this again is a shortcoming in women participation in politics generally. in sum, it can be said that women representation at all levels of governance in nigeria is highly disproportionate to their numerical strength. thus, while the aforementioned factors might have inhibited the significant participation of women in politics, they do not provide all the explanatory variables. our perception of the nature of the role of women in the society is prejudiced against women. redefining that perception in manner favourable to active women participation, therefore is a significant step to addressing the problem of gender imbalance in nigeria. however, in order to succeed, women must cooperate among themselves to win in a man‟s world like nigeria and refused to be used to pull down or limit their fellow women in whatever field of endeavour. they must agree to work together. women have not been using their numerical strength to their advantage. it is believed that if all women will determine to give their votes to women aspirants, the chances will be quite high for women aspirants. but instead, you see men marginalising women in political party leadership with most parties‟ hierarchy dominated by men. this could be linked to the comparably poor financial status of women to fund or support party activities in the country. 5.7 policy recommendation the phenomenon of the age-long historic dismal participation of women in the formal arena of politics in nigeria can be nipped in the bud. it will only take a consciously determined effort of the nigerian government to be truly committed to pursuing the course of women empowerment rather than mere political aggrandizement. in order to achieve the goal of improved women‟s political participation, the following policy recommendations are suggested. nigeria is a signatory to the convention on the elimination of all forms of discrimination against women (cedaw). however, this has not become laws in nigeria. therefore cedaw should be domesticated and its article 1 16 should be incorporated in to local laws in the role of women towards political participation in nigeria ibrahim suleiman 41 nigeria immediately. this will expunge the conflicting and discriminatory provisions in nigerian statutory, customary and religious laws that reinforce male supremacy and perpetuate patriarchal system, e.g the sharia law. the domestication of cedaw will also prohibit the reinforcement of patriarchy structure and men‟s domination by the major agents of socialization – the family, schools religion institutions and the mass media. affirmative action measure is a key strategy to redressing gender imbalance in politics. the government of nigeria though shares this approach in the country, an idea that was instrumental to the free nomination fee for women political aspirants, however, no conscious effort is made by the government for the entrenchment of such as a constitutional policy for implementation in nigeria. this study upholds that affirmative action in the country must not be mere voluntary action, but explicit specifications and clear guidelines for modalities and implementations that enhance women‟s empowerment should be developed. the national assembly should pass an electoral bill into law specifying what affirmative actions are adopted to enhance women‟s political participation in the country. for instance, 50% of financial cost of registration as a candidate for political positions and election campaign should be borne by the government. every national political party should reserve 30% of all elective positions for women. the independent national electoral commission (inec) should ensure that this policy is obeyed and any political party that fails to follow it should be disqualified. there is a clear consensus in literature and among respondents in this study that electoral quota system is an effective tool for addressing low women‟s political representation. therefore, by a constitutional provision, 30% of the seats in the national assembly, states‟ house of assembly and local government councils in nigeria should be reserved for women and this quota system of female gender representation should reflect in all their committees. government should partner with women‟s movements and civil society to embark on aggressive awareness and enlightenment campaign towards changing societal perception that women are inferior to men. by engaging a number of these women‟s movements such as gender and development action (gada), gender rights advancement and development (grand), civil liberties organization, rural women empowerment network (ruwen), legal defence and assistance project (ledap), women‟s consortium of nigeria, women law development centre, gender and constitution reform network (gecorn), national council of women societies (ncws) women in nigeria (win) et cetera. the ministry of women affairs and other government machinery for women‟s advancement and development should be strengthened. the ministry should be equipped with modern information storage and research facilities to investigate and document the situation of women. this ministry is nothing but mere political propaganda that lack tangible and practicable realistic policies and plans for women empowerment. it is unfortunate that this ministry could not even provide up-to-date statistical records of women in political offices in their states. one wonders what such institution can offer with respect to women empowerment when it lacks adequate information about the issue it is created to address. economic empowerment strategies at the level of policy-decisions and policy framework need to improve lives of poor women and men in equal measure. such strategy must find ways of affecting lives at the grassroots and not be limited to the states‟ capitals. this is important if women and men from all strata are to participate in political development of the states. on this note, loan scheme with minimal interest rates should be made available for women to enable them embark on small and medium scale business entreprise. in addition, the central bank of nigeria should mandate commercial and microfinance banks to remove the stringent regulations that make loans inaccessible for the common man. it should give directive to these financial institutions to give special priority to women who seek loan for small and medium scale entreprise. the role of women towards political participation in nigeria ibrahim suleiman 42 banks who default in this directive should be severely sanctioned. there should be a reformation of customary and religious institutions of the states so as to avoid discrimination against women‟s involvement in public life. the patriarchal structures that reinforce power imbalance between women and men should be dismantled. nigerian government should therefore abolish all statutory, religious and customary laws and practices that subordinate women to men. government should consciously mainstream women‟s perspectives and issues in all policies, plans and progammes in public and private spheres. child care and other social facilities such as healthcare services, daycare services, nursery and kindergarten schools should be provided in the various major towns with affordable charges to reduce the burden on women who have to bear the responsibility for family and community sustenance in addition to their major role as wives, mothers and economic contributors. these facilities will help free women for effective participation in the public sphere and make them available for more productive ventures. government should engage the support of the mass media for vehement campaign against women subordination, discrimination and stigmatization in the society. the ministry of women affair should have a periodic campaign programme via the mass media in this regard. the current majority electoral system should be changed in favour of proportionate representation. these will not only encourage political parties to field women as candidates for second seats; it will also reduce the “do or die” political struggle among political parties engendered by the principle of “winner takes all” that is characteristic of majority electoral system. education of women is useful to destroy inferiority complex and to give aspiring women courage and confidence to compete with men. women education should target the adult population both in the cities and rural areas. nigerian government should therefore establish evening and week-end education programme in the states for adult women who as a result of one limitation or the other could not attend the formal education. national youth service corps members posted to this states should be engaged in this programme instead of deploying them to various organisations where they are rejected or redundant for a whole year of their services. graduates who roam about the streets in search for jobs can also be meaningfully engaged in this programme. lastly, the creation of a political environment supportive of and conducive for women‟s participation is a responsibility of the government. government must curb the culture of electoral violence and the use of political thugs and gangsters to suppress and witch-hunt political opponents in the country. election task force should be established by the government with membership drawn from the nigerian police should be on ground throughout election periods for immediate investigation of the use of political thugs and gangsters during political campaigns and voting by political parties or aspirants, and conviction of such acts through the adjudication of election tribunal should lead to automatic disqualification of such political party or aspirants by the independent national electoral commission (inec). 6. conclusion this study has examined the spate of women‟s participation in politics in nigeria, under the new dispensation of a democratic government since 1999. despite global campaign for gender equality, women‟s political representation in the country has failed to achieve the critical mass of 30% women‟s representation in the country‟s parliament. the country‟s socioeconomic factors, political structures, historical heritages, political thuggery and gangsterism, societal norms and beliefs have created a culture that alienates women from the main stream of nigerian politics. the imperative of democratic consolidation in nigeria requires that women, who constitute half of the national population, should find prominence in the mainstream political development of the nation since democracy is only achievable on the altar of popular participation of every citizen of the society, males and females alike. it is therefore conclusive that any corrective measure adopted to address the the role of women towards political participation in nigeria ibrahim suleiman 43 low participation of women in nigerian politics will only be superficial unless the nation‟s socioeconomic, cultural and political factors that limit women empowerment are decisively addressed. furthermore, the various obstacles and challenges identified can be addressed by both political and legislative commitment. the review of the 1999 constitution must state specifically the principles and methodology of affirmative action as exemplified in uganda, south africa and rwanda. affirmative action and quotas have been used across the globe to address the need to close the gender-gap in political-bureaucratic development. nigeria can benefit from these “best-practices”. despite unprecedented human development efforts, a widespread inequality between genders still persists in access to political terrain. this is as a result of decades of neglect to focus on gender issues. gender mainstreaming has become the catch phrase for narrowing the gendergap and should provide the significant impetus for political development that will correct generations of social injustice in gender relations in nigeria. references adu, olufunmilayo (2008) “the missing link: women’s representation and participation in nigeria’s electoral politics and their effects on nigeria’s development”. a phd thesis. dept of political science. haverford college, usa. ajayi, kunle (2007) „gender self-endangering: the sexist issue in nigerian politics‟. journal of social science vol. 14. number 2. pg 137 – 147). akiyode-afolabi, abiola & lanre arogundade (2003) gender audit – 2003 election and 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(2005) comparing methods for studying women in politics: statistical, case study, and qualitative-comparative techniques. washington dc: american political science association. lewu, m. a. y. (2005) “women in nigerian politics”. in hassan a. saliu (ed) nigeria under democratic rule (1999 – 2003) vol 2. ibadan: university press plc. miki, caul (1997) “women's representation in parliament: the role of political parties.” irvine: center for the study of democracy. retrieved on 30www.democ.uci.edu/publications/papersseriespre2001/caul.htm) th april, 2008 from website ( norris, pippa (2000) “positive discrimination policies for women.” in klausen jyette & charles s. maier (ed.) has liberalism failed women? parity, quotas & political representation. new york: st martin‟s press. copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 2; 2020 issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 published by cribfb, usa 31 is the reinhart-rogoff debt threshold applicable to italy? dr. yu hsing joseph h. miller endowed professor in business department of management & business administration college of business southeastern louisiana university hammond, louisiana 70402, usa e-mail: yhsing@selu.edu abstract this paper employs an extended production function to examine the relationship between central government debt and economic growth in italy. the results show that the threshold of the central government debt ratio for italy is estimated to be 105.00%, which is greater than the 90% debt threshold proposed by reinhart and rogoff. besides, a higher growth rate of labor employment or investment/gdp ratio would raise the growth rate. hence, the debt threshold proposed by reinhart-rogoff underestimates the debt threshold for italy. the finding suggests that the debt ratio of 131.09% in 2019 is well above the debt threshold and is likely to be unsustainable. keywords: fiscal policy, government debt, reinhart-rogoff hypothesis, debt threshold. introduction during and after the global financial crisis, many countries engaged in fiscal expansion to stimulate their economies. italy is no exception. the central government debt ratio rose rapidly from a low of 98.13% in 2007 to 110.10% in 2009. the debt ratios continued to rise and reached 130.27% in 2014 and then stabilized around 130% 131% after 2014. whether a higher government debt ratio would increase or reduce the growth rate of real gdp has been studied extensively. reinhart and rogoff (2010a, 2010b) show that the threshold or turning point of the government debt ratio is 90%. beyond 90%, a further increase in the debt ratio tends to reduce the growth rate. the purpose of this paper is to test whether the reinhart-rogoff hypothesis may apply to italy. is it possible to have a debt threshold or turning point of 90% of gdp for italy? this paper has several different aspects. first, a production function is extended to include the government debt ratio. second, the paper uses a quadratic function to test whether there may be an inverted u-shape relationship and a turning point. third, the garch process is employed in empirical work to correct for potential autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. literature survey based on a sample of forty-four advanced and developing countries covering many years, reinhart and rogoff (2010a, 2010b) find that there is a weak relationship between the growth rate and the debt ratio when the debt ratio is less than 90% whereas a debt ratio greater than 90% causes the growth rate to decline. this threshold for the debt ratio is comparable in advanced and https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 2; 2020 32 emerging economies. however, using the same data sample developed by reinhart and rogoff and different specifications, minea and parent (2012) find that the threshold for the debt ratio is 115%. herndon, ash, and pollin (2014) use the same data compiled by reinhart and rogoff and find that for 20 advanced countries, the negative effect of the public debt ratio above 90% on economic growth cannot be confirmed. according to herndon, ash, and pollin, during 1946– 2009, countries with public debt ratios over 90% recorded an average growth rate of 2.2% instead of −0.1% as presented by reinhart and rogoff. the relationship between the economic growth rate and the public debt ratio differs substantially by country and period. égert (2015a, 2015b) indicates that the 90% debt threshold cannot be confirmed and that the thresholds or negative links may exist at a much lower debt level between 20% and 60%. the magnitude of the thresholds is uncertain. a nonlinear relationship is not robust and sensitive to model specifications. parameter estimates vary across countries. lee, park, seo, and shin (2017) find no support for the 90% debt threshold. using the post-wwii data developed by reinhart and rogoff, they show that the debt threshold maybe around 30%. beyond 30%, the growth rate will decline by 1 percentage point. based on a sample of 18 oecd countries during 1980-2008, cecchetti, mohanty, and zampolli (2011) find that the government debt threshold is 85%, suggesting that an increase in the government debt ratio beyond 85% tends to harm economic growth. they also show that when the corporate debt ratio is greater than 90% of gdp, there will be an adverse effect on growth. checherita-westphal and rother (2012) examine the relationship between government debt and economic growth using a sample of 12 countries in the euro area. they find a threshold or turning point in the range of 90% 100%, indicating that an increase in the government debt ratio tends to reduce economic growth if the debt ratio is greater than 90% 100%. the threshold would start in the range of 70% 80% based on the confidence interval. baum, checherita-westphal, and rother (2013) investigate the relationship between government debt and growth for twelve countries in the euro area. a higher debt ratio increases economic growth but has no impact when the debt ratio reaches about 67%. when the debt ratio is greater than 95%, a higher debt ratio reduces economic growth. afonso and jalles (2013) examine the impact of government debt on economic growth for 155 advanced and developing countries during 1970 – 2008. the debt threshold is estimated to be 59% for the eurozone and 79% for emerging economies. if the debt ratio increases by 10%, the growth rate would decrease by 0.2% if the debt ratio is over 90% and increase by 0.1% if the debt ratio is below 30%. chirwa (2017) studies the relationship among government debt, growth, and other related variables for ten countries in the euro area. the threshold is estimated to be 70% in the long run whereas government debt and economic growth have a negative relationship in the short run. woo and kumar (2015) show that if a 10-percentage point increase in the initial debt ratio tends to reduce the growth rate of real per capita gdp by 0.2 percentage points. a higher initial government debt ratio tends to cause a larger negative effect. the negative effect isowing tothe decrease in labor productivity growth. lechtenberg (2017) analyzes the subject using a sample of 10 countries. australia, canada, chile, germany, and new zealand have had low and declining debt ratios, and a higher debt ratio would not cause economic growth to decline in these countries. on the other hand, debt thresholds are found for france, greece, italy, the u.k., and the u.s. a higher debt ratio https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 2; 2020 33 beyond the threshold tends to reduce economic growth in greece, italy, the u.k., and the u.s. but increase the economic growth rate for france. comparing with public debt between belgium and italy, sapir (2018) examines how these two countries have handled the debt issue. in the early 1990s, both countries have accumulated relatively high levels of public debt. after the maastricht treaty took effect in 1993, both countries have improved their financial position to reduce the debt level to be eligible for the adoption of the euro. before the launch of the euro, however, italy’s debt position became worse mainly because italy’s efforts stalked and did not pay enough attention to growth performance. during and after the global financial crisis and the greek sovereign debt crisis, italy took austerity measures, caused real gdp to decline, and raised the debt level. on the other hand, during the crisis, belgium committed to fiscal discipline and debt sustainability. reviewing italy’s public debt during 1861-2018, bastasin, mischitelli, and toniolo (2019) indicated that the relatively high public debt may not be sustainable and that the government needs to improve education, cut red tape, pursue investment-oriented fiscal expansion, and engage in structural reforms to enhance business competitiveness to promote growth. using a large sample consisting of many advanced and developing countries, swamy (2020) reveals that a 10-percentage point increase in the government debt ratio tends to result ina decrease in the average growth rate by 23 basis points and that the relationship between government debt and economic growth is nonlinear. the impact of government debt on economic growth varies by country, depending upon several major macroeconomic factors and debt regimes. jacobs, ogawa, sterken, and tokutsu (2020) explore the relationship between public debt and economic growth for 27 eu members and 4 oecd countries during 1995-2013. they show that economic growth granger causes public debt, but not vice versa. slow economic growth causes more public debt. in high-debt economies, slow economic growth increases public debt, which causes a higher long-term interest rate, dampens interest-rate sensitive private spending, and increases public debt. besides, they indicate that high-debt economies show greater impacts of economic growth on the debt ratio and that the low-debt countries exhibit greater effects of the debt ratio on economic growth. the model applying ram (1986, 1989) and goel, payne, and ram (2008), the growth rate of real gdp can be expressed as: gy = w(gl, gk, dy) (1) where gy= the growth rate of real gdp(y) in italy, gl = the growth rate of labor (l), gk = the growth rate of capital (k), and dy = the government debt-to-gdp ratio. due to the lack of data for capital, the growth rate of capital can be substituted by the ratio of investment spending to gross domestic product (iy) (ram, 1986, 1989). gy = z(gl, iy, dy) (2) https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 2; 2020 34 the coefficient of gl measures the elasticity of y with respect to l, and the coefficient of iy represents the marginal product of capital. the coefficient of gl and iy is expected to be positive, and the sign of the coefficient of dy is unclear. when dy is relatively low, an increase in the government debt ratio for infrastructural improvements may enhance economic growth. when the debt ratio is relatively high, a further increase in the debt ratio tends to raise the interest rate, cause the local currency to appreciate, hurt exports, and crowd out private spending. there may be a threshold or an inverted u-shaped relationship between gy and the government debt ratio. an analysis of the data also finds that growth rates declined a great deal due to the global financial crisis. hence, a binary variable (b) is also added to the estimated equation: gy = δ0 + δ1gl + δ2 iy + δ3 dy + δ4dy2 + δ5b + ε (3) an inverted u-shaped relationship between gy and the debt ratio suggests that the sign of dy should be positive and the sign of dy2should be negative. the critical value (turning point) of the debt ratio corresponding to the maximum growth rate of real gdp is given by: dy∗ = δ3 2δ4 (4) where, 𝛿3 is the coefficient of dy and 𝛿4 is the coefficient of dy2. empirical results the data were collected from the world economic outlook, international financial statistics, and eurostat. the growth rate of real gdp is expressed as a percent. the growth rate of labor employment is expressed as a percent. investment spending as a percent of gdp is used as the data for capital is not available. central government debt is measured as a percent of gross domestic product. the sample ranges from 1981 to 2019. the data for the government debt ratio or the growth rate before 1981is not available. figure 1 shows the growth rates of real gdp over time. it appears that growth rates of real gdp were less than 2% after the year 2006 and were negative in 2008 and 2009 due to the global financial crisis. figure 2 describes the central government debt as a percent of gdp. the debt ratio declined during 1996-2007, rose during 2008-2013, leveled off after 2013, and reached 131.09% in 2019. figure 3 exhibits a scatter diagram between the debt ratio and the growth rate of real gdp. it seems that the relationship is nonlinear. with a few outliers, the relation was positive when the debt ratio was relatively small and negative when the debt ratio was relatively high. table 1 presents the estimated regression and related statistics. the garch process is employed in empirical work to correct for autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. approximately 58.60% of the variation in the growth rate of real gdp in italy can be explained by the five independent variables. these five explanatory variables have the expected sign and are significant at the 1% or 10% level. the growth rate of real gdp in italy is positively affected by the growth rate of labor, the investment/gdp ratio, and the central government debt ratio and negatively affected by the central government debt ratio squared and the binary variable for years 2008 and 2009. https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 2; 2020 35 a 1 percentage point increase in labor would result in an increase in the growth rate by 0.5031 percentage points. if the investment-gdp ratio rises 1 percentage point, the growth rate would increase by 0.3388 percentage points. the quadratic relationship between the growth rate and the central government debt ratio indicates that the critical value of the central government debt ratio corresponding to the turning point is estimated to be 104.997%. during 2008-2009, growth rates of real gdp in italy declined by 5.5745 percentage points. figure 1. growth rates of real gdp over time figure 2. the government debt ratio over time -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 growth_rategrowth_rate 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 debt_ratiodebt_ratio https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 2; 2020 36 figure 3. scatter diagram between the debt ratio and the growth rate of real gdp table 1. estimated regression for the growth rate of real gdp in italy variable coefficient probability intercept -83.2978 0.0000 the growth rate of labor 0.5031 0.0010 investment/gdp ratio 0.3388 0.0735 central government debt ratio 33.4988 0.0001 central government debt ratio squared -3.5990 0.0002 binary variable -5.5745 0.0000 r squared 0.5860 sample period 1981-2019 number of observations 39 methodology garch notes: the binary variable equals 1 during 2008-2009 and 0 otherwise. to sum up, the results in this paper show that the growth rate of real gdp has a positive relationship with the growth rate of labor, the investment/gdp ratio and a negative relationship with the binary variable during the global financial crisis during 2008-2009. the growth rate and the debt ratio exhibit a quadratic relationship with a threshold or turning point at 105.00%. in comparison, the finding of a threshold or turning point of 105.00% in this study is less than the 115% threshold estimated by minea and parent (2012) but greater than the 90% threshold proposed by reinhart and rogoff (2010a, 2010b) and other findings (égert, 2015a, 2015b; lee, park, seo and shin, 2017; cecchetti, mohanty, and zampolli, 2011; checheritawestphal and rother, 2012; baum, checherita-westphal and rother, 2013; afonso and jalles, 2013; chirwa, 2017). the result in this study is in contrast with the results reported by wu and -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 debt_ratio g ro w th _r at e debt_ratio g ro w th _r at e https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 2; 2020 37 kumar (2015) and swamy (2020), which show that a higher government debt ratio hurts the growth rate. summary and conclusions this paper has applied an extended production function to examine the relationship between the central government debt ratio and the growth rate of real gdp in italy. reinhart-rogoff (2010a, 2010b) suggests that when the debt ratio is greater than 90% of gdp, a further increase in the debt ratio would slow down the growth rate. the main focus is to test whether the reinhartrogoff hypothesis may apply to italy. results show that their relationship is nonlinear and that there is a turning point or threshold estimated to be 105.00%. when the debt ratio increases and is less than 105.00%, the growth rate would rise. conversely, when the debt ratio increases and is greater than 105.00%, the growth rate would decline. comparing with the current debt ratio of 131.09% in 2019, a further increase in the debt ratio would hurt economic growth. the estimated threshold suggests that the debt threshold of 90% proposed by reinhart and rogoff does not apply to italy. besides, the growth rate of real gdp is positively associated with the growth rate of employment and the investment/gdp ratio, and it declined during the global financial crisis during 2008-2009. hence, to promote economic growth, italy’s debt ratio needs to decrease because the current debt ratio is unsustainable. to pursue fiscal discipline and to reduce government deficits and debt, government spending needs to slow down or decline, and taxes need to increase. to enhance growth, authorities need to improve human capital by providing more training and quality education. references afonso, a., & jalles, j. t. (2013). growth and productivity: the role of government debt. international review of economics and finance, 25(january), 384–407. bastasin, c., mischitelli, m., & toniolo, g. (2019). living with high public debt: italy 18612018. sep working paper 11. baum, a., checherita-westphal, c., & rother, p. (2013). debt and growth: new evidence for the euro area.journal of international money and finance, 32(february), 809-821. cecchetti, s. g., mohanty, m. s., & zampolli, f. (2011). the real effects of debt. bank for international settlements, bis working papers no. 352. checherita-westphal, c., & rother, p. (2012). the impact of high government debt on economic growth and its channels: an empirical investigation for the euro area. european economic review, 56(7), 1392-1405. chirwa, t. g. (2017). public debt and economic growth nexus in the euro area: a dynamic panel ardl approach. unisa economic research working paper 19/2017. égert, b. (2015a). the 90% public debt threshold: the rise and fall of a stylized fact.applied economics, 47(34-35), 3756-3770. égert, b. (2015b). public debt, economic growth, and nonlinear effects: myth or reality? journal of macroeconomics, 43(march), 226-238. goel, r. k., payne, j. e., & ram, r. (2008). r&d expenditures and us economic growth: a disaggregated approach. journal of policy modeling, 30(2), 237-250. https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 2; 2020 38 herndon, t., ash, m., & pollin, r. (2014). does high public debt consistently stifle economic growth? a critique of reinhart and rogoff.cambridge journal of economics, 38(2), 257279. jacobs, j., ogawa, k., sterken, e., & tokutsu, i. (2020). public debt, economic growth, and the real interest rate: a panel var approach to eu and oecd countries. applied economics, 52(12), 1377-1394. lechtenberg, l. (2017). the debt-to-gdp threshold effect on output: a country-specific analysis. aisthesis, 8(1), 26-34. lee, s., park, h., seo, m. h., & shin, y. (2017). testing for a debt‐threshold effect on output growth. fiscal studies, 38(4), 701-717. minea, a., & parent, a. (2012). is high public debt always harmful to economic growth? reinhart and rogoff and some complex nonlinearities. cerdi, working paper, halshs00700471. ram, r. (1986). government size and economic growth: a new framework and some evidence from cross-section and time-series data. american economic review, 76(1), 191-203. ram, r. (1989). government size and economic growth: a new framework and some evidence from cross-section and time-series data: reply. american economic review, 79(1), 281284. reinhart, c. m., & rogoff, k. s. (2010a). growth in a time of debt.american economic review, 100(2), 573-78. reinhart, c. m., & rogoff, k. s. (2010b). debt and growth revisited. mpra paper no. 24376. sapir, a. (2018). high public debt in euro-area countries: comparing belgium and italy. (no. 2018/15). bruegel policy contribution. swamy, v. (2020). debt and growth: decomposing the cause and effect relationship. international journal of finance & economics, 25(2), 141-156. woo, j., & kumar, m. s. (2015). public debt and growth. economica, 82(328), 705-739. copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. this is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr american economic & social review; vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 research article published by centre for research on islamic banking & finance and business, usa 33 financial structure and economic growth: the nigerian experience, 1980-2017 emeka nkoro phd department of economics university of port harcourt nigeria e-mail: nkoro23@yahoo.co.uk aham kelvin uko phd ministry of environment, abia state nigeria abstract this study investigated the role of financial structure in explaining economic growth dynamics in nigeria using annual time series from 1981-2017. the study employed the vector error correction model (vecm) in the analysis of the data. as lead up to financial structure and economic growth relationship analysis, the competing theoretical views of bank and market based financial system and economic growth were explored. the result of the study showed that economic growth, financial development variables and the underlying control variables are cointegrated. the result of the economic growth effect of financial development showed that stock market and bankbased have a significant effect on growth. this implies that both bank-based and market-based matter in explaining economic growth dynamics. on the relationship between financial structure and economic growth, the study revealed that economic growth, financial structure and the underlying control variables have a long run relationship. the study also revealed that financial structure which captures the combination of stock market-based and bankbased has a positive significant effect on growth. a significant coefficient of financial structure implies that financial structure matters in explaining growth. therefore, the study posits that the overall financial structure is the most useful way to assess the financial systems since both bank and stock market system matter in explaining economic growth as against bank-based versus market-based debate. based on the empirical evidence, the study therefore recommends that there should be continuous holistic reforms of both banking and stock market simultaneously, as the development in one sector has a neglect effect on the other. keywords: stock market, financial market, financial structure, economic growth, vector error correction model. 1. introduction historically, there has been debate among scholars over the role of the structure of the financial systems to economic growth. specifically, the debate is about the relative importance of bank-based and market-based financial systems in stimulating economic growth (gerschenkron, 1962, stiglitz, 1985, allen and gale, 1999 and, levine, 2002). empirical studies (hoshi et al, 1991, mork and nakkamura, 1999, weinstein and yafeh, 1998 and, arestis et al., 2001) from developed economies of the worldthe united states of america and united kingdom show that financial structure matters in explaining economic growth. the united states of america and united kingdom are often portrayed as market-based economies while germany and japan are described as bank-based economies. the results from the developed countries never provided a realistic reference point for developing countries given the critical issues of differences in development and structure of both economies. contrarily, cross-section studies revealed that financial structure is irrelevant to economic growth. that is, neither the bank-based nor the marketbased financial system can explain economic growth; rather the studies opined that it is the overall provision of financial services (combination of banks and financial markets) that are important (demirguc-kunt and levine, 1996, levine, 2003 and, beck and levine, 2002). therefore, levine (2001) was of the view that it may be better to think not in terms of banks versus stock markets but in terms of banks and stock markets. however, luintel and khan (2002) showed that panel estimates often do not correspond to country-specific estimates. this could be as a result of cross-country differences and, measurement, statistical, and conceptual problems. consequently, copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | afbr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 34 generalizations based on panel results may also be misleading at country level; hence the relationship between financial structure and economic growth remains inconclusive. these conflicting results call for country-specific study which is the concern of this study. recently, the emergence of global financial crisis has made developed and developing economies to shift away from free market fundamentals to a regulated economic regime. as a measure of curbing the financial crisis, the governments of these economies take up major stakes in the financial markets through the injection of funds into the institutions of the economy and, this has raised critical issues in policy formulation. some of the developed and developing countries injected liquidity in the form of preference shares while others injected liquidity in the form of tier-2 capital(bank supplementary capital). scholars were of the view that this decision to move from free market based economy to regulated economic regime was informed by the countries’ preference for a particular financial structure based. according to levine and zervos (1998), developed economies show strong preference to a particular financial structure that exerts more influence on economic growth. to mitigate the effects of 2007/2008 global financial crisis, the nigerian government decided to bail-out only banks in the form of tier-2 capital. however, the government never considered to bail-out the capital market, especially when the stock market was not spared by the crisis. this has the capacity of promoting the bank-based financial structure over the market-based financial structure. empirically, studies have shown that assessing whether the relationship between bank development and growth holds when controlling for stock market development hampers the ability to make policy decisions on whether the overall financial structure matters for growth as well as identifying the separate impact of banks and stock markets on economic growth (caporale et al., 2002). hence, the following questions are relevant: does overall financial structure influence economic growth? which of these structures exerts more influence on economic growth? this calls for an empirical investigation. the rest of the work is structured as follows; section two provides reviews of related and relevant literature, section three explains the method of analysis, section four focuses on the empirical results and discussions and, section five presents the conclusion and recommendations. 2.review of literature theoretical review gerschenken (1962) was the first to classified the financial system into two categories; bank-based and marketbased financial structure and ever since this has generated serious debate among scholars. the argument has been polarized along the following lines; (1) the standard parameters or measurement for classifying a country’s financial system either as bank-based or market-based; (2) which of these classifications exert more influence on economic growth; and (3) the determinants of a country’s financial structure. also, according to scholars (la porta et al, 1997 and, beck and levine, 2002 and, arestis and luintel, 2004), the relationship between financial structure and economic development are discussed within four competing theories of financial structure. these competing theories are the bank-based view, the market-based view, the financial services view and the legal based view. these theories are examined in brief in what follows. however, before looking at the various theories of financial structure, it is proper to define financial structure. according to stulz (2001), financial structure entails the institutions, financial technology, and rules that guide financial activity at a point in time, and also merton (1995) added that it provides a payment system, that is, a mechanism for pooling funds, ways of transmitting resources across space and time, ways to manage uncertainty and control risk, price information to allow the economy to implement a decentralized allocation, and ways to deal with the asymmetric information problems that arise when one party to a financial transaction has information that the others do not have. the bank-based theory lays emphasis on the positive role of banks in development and growth, and also, stresses the shortcomings of market-based financial systems. it argues that banks can finance development more effectively than markets in developing economies, and, in the case of state-owned banks, market failures can be overcome and allocation of savings can be undertaken strategically (gerschenkron, 1962). the bank-based view stresses that a well functioning market-based systems reveal information publicly, thereby reducing incentives for investors to seek and acquire information about firms. however, banks can make investments without revealing the decision immediately in public markets and, this creates incentives for them to research firms, managers, and market conditions with positive ramifications on resource allocation and growth. this argument is that if information is going to be revealed by the market, no one is motivated to collect it. this is known as free-rider problem. as a result, competitive market system may be characterized by under-investment in information. consequently, well developed market systems have a negative impact on the identification of innovative projects, and thereby impede efficient resource allocation (stiglitz, 1985 and, boot, greenbaum, and thakor, 1993). also, information asymmetries are thus accentuated, more copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | afbr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 35 so in market-based rather than in bank-based financial systems (boyd and prescott, 1986). the distortions that emanate from asymmetric information can be eased by banks through forming long-run relationships with firms and, through monitoring, to control moral hazard. consequently, scholars (stiglitz, 1985 and, bhide, 1993) assert that bank-based financial systems can produce better improvement in resource allocation and corporate governance than market-based institutions on the contrary, the market-based theory emphasizes the advantages of well-functioning markets, and stresses the problems of bank-based financial systems. the market based theory opines that big, liquid and well-developed markets foster growth and profit incentives, enhance corporate governance and, facilitate risk management (levine, 2002, and, beck and levine, 2002). the inefficiencies that are inherent in bankbased system as stressed by levine (2002) can hinder firm innovation. for instance, once banks acquire substantial inside information about firms in the process of financing firms, banks can extract rents from firms and, firms must pay for their greater access to capital. in terms of new investments or debt renegotiations, powerful banks can extract more of the expected future profits from the firm than in a market-base system (hellwig, 1991). this ability to extract part of the expected revenue to potentially profitable investments may limit the firm’s effort to undertake innovative and profitable ventures (rajan, 1992). also, with the acquire substantial inside information about firms, the bank can conspire with firm managers against outsiders, which in turn hampers competition, corporate controls, the creation of new firms, and long-run economic growth (hellwig, 1998). market-based financial systems reduce the inherent inefficiencies associated with banks and are, thus, better at enhancing economic development and growth. in a related study, boyd and smith (1998) demonstrated that financial structure changes as countries go through different stages of development, and the countries become more market-based as development proceeds. the financial services view theory is consistent with both the bank-based and the market-based views (merton and bodie, 1995 and, levine, 1997). it embraces both, but downplays their importance in the sense that the distinction between bank-based and market-based financial systems matters less than was previously thought. however, according to world bank (2001), it is the financial services itself that are by far more important than the form of their delivery. in financial services view theory, the issue is not the source of finance, but the creation of an environment where financial services are soundly and efficiently provided. the focus of this view is on the creation of better functioning banks and markets rather than on a particular type of financial structure in place. also, the financial services theory suggests that neither banks nor markets matter, rather the combination of both. thus, financial services view focuses on how to create better functioning banks and markets, and not the bank-based versus market-based debate. there are different components of the financial system; but do not compete each other, but ameliorate different costs like transaction and information cost in the system (boyd and smith, 1998, levine, 1997 and, demirguc-kunt and levine, 2001). under these circumstances, financial arrangements focuses on ameliorating market imperfections and provide financial services that are well placed to facilitate savings mobilization and risk management, assess potential investment opportunities, exert corporate control, and enhance liquidity. the legal-based view theory is an extension of the financial services view and also rejects the bank-based versus market-based debate. the theory stresses the role of creditor and investor rights for financial intermediation (laporta, lopez-de-silanes, shleifer, and vishny, 1998). it is the legal system that make and enforces these rights. from this perspective, a well functioning legal system facilitates the operation of both markets and intermediaries in providing services to the private sector. it is the overall level and quality of financial services – as determined by the legal system – that improves the efficient allocation of resources and economic growth. empirical review a number of empirical studies have been conducted on relative importance of bank-based system and market-based system in stimulating economic growth. these studies were done on country-specific as well as cross-country approach. studies on germany and japan use measures of whether banks own shares or whether a company has a ‘main bank’ respectively (hoshi et al., 1991, mork and nakamura,1999 and, weinstein and yafeh, 1998). these studies provide evidence that view germany and japan as bank-based systems. this confirms the distinction between bank based and market-based financial systems. however, a reassessment of the japanese financial system benefits in view of the economy’s poor performance in the 1990s reveals that the bank-based nature of this system is not beneficial. in response, weinstein and yafeh (1998) were of the view that bank dependence can lead to a higher cost of funds for firms, since banks extract rent from their corporate customers. similarly, studies on the us and the uk provide copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | afbr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 36 evidence in favour of market-based financial systems (wenger and kaserer, 1998 and, levine, 1997). hence, the u.s. and uk were view as market-based systems. goldsmith (1969), however, argues that the findings from the comparative analysis of bank-based system and market-based system in the case of germany and the uk for the period 1864-1914 does not contribute to the debate since there was no significant difference in the rate of growth of the two economies. levine (2002) reaffirmed goldsmith’s (1969) argument by concluding that financial structure did not matter much since the countries have very similar growth rates. hence, levine (2002) examined the relative importance of bank-based system and market-based system in stimulating economic growth using a broad crosscountry approach that allows treatment of financial system structure across many countries with different growth rates. the findings of this study support financial services view and the legal-based view as against the bank-based and the market-based views. it is the elements of a country’s legal environment and the quality of its financial services (fss) that are most important in stimulating general economic growth. the bank-based and the marketbased systems are supportive of the financial services and legal views and, that a better-developed financial system is what stimulates economic growth. in contrast, tadesse (2000) examined the relative importance of bank-based systems and market-based systems in stimulating economic growth using a cross-country regression for 36 countries from 1980–1995 and found a difference between bank-based and market-based financial systems. for underdeveloped financial sectors, bank-based systems outperform market-based systems. demirguc-kunt and levine (1996), using cross-country data from forty-four industrial and developing countries for the period 1986 to 1993 to examined the relative importance of bank-based systems and market-based systems to economic growth and thereafter, concluded that countries with well-developed market-based institutions also have well-developed bank-based institutions; and vice versa, thereby supporting the view that the distinction between bank-based and market-based financial systems is of no consequence. contrarily, levine and zevos (1998), adopted a cross-country regression for a number of countries covering the period 1976 to 1993 and concluded that higher stock market liquidity or greater bank development lead to higher growth, irrespective of the development of the other. in particular, market-based systems influence growth through the provision of liquidity that enables investment to be less risky, such that companies have access to capital through liquid equity issues (harris, 1997). summarily, the world bank (2001) reached a conclusion that the evidence should be interpreted as clearly suggesting that both the development of bank-based and market-based financial systems promote economic growth and, each can complement the other. furthermore, saibu, bowale and akinlo (2009) investigated the relationship between economic growth and financial structure, i.e.,the degree to which an emerging economy is market based or bank based. in particular, this study empirically assessed the competing theoretical views of financial structure and economic growth dynamics in nigeria using vector error correction model over a 30 year period. the result shows that changes in financial structure in nigeria have no significant influence on real growth rate. the result shows further that despite the negative effect of bank-market on economic growth, bank-market has positive effect on stock market development hence suggesting that neither the bank-market nor stock market based system is a dominant factor on economic growth in nigeria. therefore, the controversy between bank based and market based is not a nigerian phenomenon, as both theoretical positions are not supported by evidence. rather, the results are more consistent with the financial services view that both bank and stock market are relevant to the growth of an emerging economy like nigeria. similarly, ujunwa, salami, nwakoby and umar (2012) examined the impact of competing financial structure theories on economic growth in nigeria for the period, 1992-2008 using the ordinary least square (ols) regression approach. the results showed that despite the non-significant influence of bank-based theory and legal-based theory, both have positive effect in promoting economic growth while the result shows further that market-based theory and the financial service theory were non-significant but exhibited negative influence in promoting economic growth. these results are consistent with saibu, bowale and akinlo (2009) findings. also, olofin and afangideh (2009) investigated the role of financial structure in economic development in nigeria using aggregate annual data from 1970 to 2005. it developed a small macro econometric model to capture the interrelationships among aggregate bank credit activities, investment behaviour and economic growth given the financial structure of the economy. three stage least square estimation technique was adopted. the result shows that financial structure has no direct effect on output growth but through bank credit and investment activities. the finding from the simulation results equally confirmed that what matters is overall financial development and not bank-based versus market-based debate. this supports financial services theory. the simulation result also confirmed that both capital market-based and bankbased financial development have similar impact on the real sector of the economy, thereby relegating the capital copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | afbr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 37 market-based versus bank-based debate to the background, and favour the combination of the both. luintel, khan, arestis and theodoridis (2008) examined the relationship between financial structure and economic growth using a sample of fourteen countries for the period 1976 to 2005. fully modified ols (fmols) of phillips and hansen (1990) was employed and, thorough scrutiny of the study results was done through bootstrap exercises. several hypotheses about the prospective role of financial structure and financial development on economic growth were tested. these exercises were done due to the fact that much of the recent empirical work that analyzed multi-country dataset at firm-, industryand aggregate-levels utilizing the panel and/or pure cross-section frameworks concluded that financial structure is irrelevant. hence, luintel, khan, arestis and theodoridis (2008) were among scholars that have raised doubts about the irrelevant of financial structure in explaining growth in multi-country studies. in addressing this concern the study analyzed 14 low-and-middle income countries using both time series and dynamic heterogeneous. evidence from the study shows that cross-country heterogeneity cannot be addressed and this mark important cross-country differences in the relationship under investigations. this shows that data from the sampled countries cannot be pooled. this also underpins our focus on a time series analysis. the study also revealed that panel and the country-specific parameters (estimates) do not correspond hence limiting the economic value of panel estimates. furthermore, the study revealed that various countries in the panel study are on the balanced growth path raising concern on pooled regressions. overall, the study reveals that the irrelevance of financial structure in panel or cross section studies may be because they do not sufficiently account for the cross country heterogeneity. nevertheless, the study shows that output level, capital stock, financial structure and financial development variables are co-integrated. also, the study reveals that, financial structure and financial development significantly explain economic growth for the majority of the sampled countries, this holds under time series and panel estimates. the literature reviewed suggests that the issue between financial structure and its impact on economic growth is yet to be resolved. specifically, the argument on the relative importance of bank based and market based to economic growth is still on. cross-country and country-specific studies financial structure and its impact on economic growth have been carried out but the controversy still persists. however, evidence on nigerian economy is still scanty except on cross-sectional basics where nigerian data are lumped up with other countries. therefore, it is imperative to examine whether changes in financial structure or the overall financial systems impact on a typical developing economy like nigeria, whose overall financial sector is expanding both in size and complexities. this study intends to contribute to the existing literature. this is done by utilizing annual time series data from 1981-2017 to develop a model that captures the relationships between financial structure variables and economic growth. 3. methodology 3.1 data and sources the annual data for this study were basically from secondary sources. specifically, the data were from central bank of nigeria (cbn) statistical bulletin, various issues, securities and exchange commission, nigeria (2017) and world development indicators (wdi). the annual data covers the sample period, 1981-2017. the choice of the period and frequency of data was because of availability of data. the variables used in the model specification are real gross domestic product growth which is used to measure economic growth as the dependent variable while labour employed, represented by percent growth in labour force participation, kp is the physical capital or investment, captured by log gross fixed capital formation as percent of gdp, financial structure, represented by the stock market capitalization ratio over credit to private sector ratio, degree of openness, government expenditure/gdp and inflation served as the explanatory variables. 3.2 model specification 3.2.1 analytical framework the analytical framework of this study is based on the neoclassical model of economic growth which stresses capital and labour as the main determinants of output (economic growth). technological progress is generally acclaimed as an additional determinant of output and it comes into the model as a time related trend (t). according to the neoclassical model, the relationship between economic growth and these variables is expressed in the form of a production function. therefore, the conventional form of cobb douglas production function as in saibu et al, (2009) is adopted as basis. thus: y = alα kβ (1) where α, β>0 copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | afbr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 38 where y represents output produced, l is the utilized labour, k is the utilized capital and α, β and are the parameters representing the output elasticity of each input (labour and capital). theoretically, it is argued that the labour and capital are embodiment of several other inputs that are also directly influencing output growth even when the traditional inputs are unchanged; hence there is need for simple modification of eqn 1. thus, one of such possible inputs is the financial resources committed into production process. in line with this argument, capital can be decomposed into fixed physical (kp) and, financial (kf) resources which are generated from the financial sector (saibu et al, 2009). thus: y = alα kp θ kf φ (2) where α, (β= θ+φ) ≥ 0 kf is the level of financial capital utilized in the production process, and it is an increasing function designed to capture the channel through which financial factors raise the rate of return on investment and subsequently output. the model in equation (2) is transformed into partial log linear form: iny = ina + αl+ θinkp + φkf +ut (3) where u represents other variables that might also be impacting on the growth of output. apart from the labour, investment and financial factors, evidences from previous studies revealed that many other factors influence economic growth. saibu et al, (2009) indentified public investment, degree of openness and inflation as other factors influencing growth. the model of the study differs from saibu et al, (2009) with little modification in area of the determinant variables. this study incorporated into the model total government expenditure and gross fixed capital formation as against public investment on infrastructure and gross private investment in saibu et al, (2009). in line with the objectives of the study which is investigating the competing views on the role of the financial structures (bank-based view, market-based view, financial service view and the legal system service view) in promoting economic growth in nigeria, equation (3) is modified. therefore the estimated equation is of the form: inrgdpi = b0 + b1glf + b2inkp + b3kf + b4c + ut (4) where rgdpi is the real gross domestic product, glf is the labour employed, represented by percent growth in labour force participation(glp), kp is the physical capital (captured by log gross fixed capital formation as percent of gdp(di)), kf captures respective financial structures or financial development variables (bank sector credit to private sector as a percentage of gdp(bcp_r) and stock market capitalization as a percentage of gdp(smc_r)) and, c captures the control variables (degree of openness(openn), log government expenditure/gdp(tgex_r) and inflation(inf)). the degree of openness is measured as the ratio of total trade to gdp (foreign trade/gdp) and is used as the openness of the economy, government expenditure/gdp is government expenditure as a ratio of gdp and inflation is the log difference of composite consumer price indices. also, to investigate the overall role of financial structure (combination of the competing views) in promoting economic growth in nigeria hence, the estimated equation is of the form: inrgdpi = b0 + b1inglf + b2indi + b3fs_r + b4inc + ut (5) the variables definitions remain the same with eqn 4 except di and fs_r. di is the log gross fixed capital formation as percent of gdp which captures investment. fs_r captures the overall financial structure. fs_r is defined as the stock market capitalization ratio over credit to private sector ratio. that is, fs_r a conglomerate index of stock market activity and bank activity. a significant fs_r implies that financial structure matters in determining economic growth while an insignificant of fs_r implies that financial structure is inconsequential in determining growth. 3.2.2 method of data analysis as this study is based on time series data so the first step is to check whether the series are stationary or not. augmented dickey-fuller (1979)(adf) and phillips-peron (1988)(pp) tests are used for testing stationarity. if the copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | afbr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 39 adf and phillips–peron statistics confirm that, there exist or no unit roots in the series, next is to verify whether long run relationship exists between financial structure and economic growth. in doing this, it is the features of the series that determine the cointegration test technique to be adopted. if all the variables are stationary at level, the simple regression technique is adopted, hence no need to test for long relation of the series or if the stationarity of variables are mixed, i(0), i(1), the autoregressive distributed lag bound technique is employed or if all the series are integrated at i(1) then johansen and juselius co-integration technique (1991) is adopted. also, the number of the cointegrating equations determines the model to adopt. if the number of cointegrating equation is one, the error correction model (ecm) is employed or if the number of cointegrating equation is more than one, vector error correction model (vecm) is employed or if there is no cointegrating equation, the unrestricted vector autoregressive model (var) is adopted. however, given the feature of the stationarity of the series and the order of the var using akaike’s information criterion, johansen and juselius co-integration technique (1991) is adopted to identify the long-run equilibrium relationship, if it exists. the presence of such relationship rules out spurious relationship among the underlying variables. having established more one cointegrating vector, the vector error correction model (vecm) model is applied to check what happens within the short run and long run. also, to establish if there is causality between the different types of financial structure (or overall structure) and economic growth, the vector error correction (vec) granger causality test is used. the vector error correction (vecm) model is expressed as follows: ∆yt = μ + γ1∆yt-1+⋯+ γp-1∆yp-1 + αecmt-1+ ϵt (6) where ∆ is a difference operator and y is a vector of i(1) variables that are involved in this study, ϵt is a vector of white noise errors, ecm is the residuals of the long-run model lagged one period, and α is a vector of adjustment coefficients. these latter indicate the adjustment to long-run equilibrium. they should be statistically significant and have a negative sign. the granger causality among these variables is tested through the vector error correction model. 4. results and discussions 4.1test results 4.1.1unit roots test the time series properties of the data were evaluated by using augmented dickey fuller (adf) and phillips-perron (pp) procedures for the presence of unit roots. the unit roots test results reported in table 1 show that the variables are non-stationary at level but unequivocally stationary at first difference, implying that they are i(1) properties. this is deduced from the fact that the absolute values of the adf/pp test statistics of the variables at levels are less than the absolute value of the critical values of the adf/pp at 1 or 5 percent significance level. however, the reverse is the case for the first differences of the variables. table 1: adf/pp statistics for testing unit roots in the variables variable series adf-test pp-test at level 1st diff at level 1st diff economic growth rgdp 0.0321 -3.3397* 0.8578 -3.1798* labour glf -1.8314 -9.4417* -3.0905 -9.4417* investment di -2.8903 -5.5399* -2.9000 -5.1218* bank credit to private sector ratio bcp_r -0.8169 -6.3365* -0.8169 -6.3370* stock market cap ratio smc_r -1.7674 -5.8978* -1.5751 -9.5326* inflation rate inf -2.8593 -6.1392* -2.7318 -9.3995* total government expenditure tgex_r -2.4359 -8.5933* -2.2520 -8.5247* degree of openness openn -1.7873 -7.4157* -1.6699 -7.5446* financial structures fs_r -2.6408 -5.8248* -2.6408 -7.1130* critical values 1% -3.6268 -3.6329 -3.6268 -3.6329 5% -2.9458 -2.9484 -2.9458 -2.9484 source: calculations by authors using eviews 9. *significant at 1% and 5% level copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | afbr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 40 4.1.2 cointegration test since all the variables are integrated of order one, next is to examine the long run relationship of the variables by using johansen and juselius co-integration procedure. this test is carried out by defining the vector zt = [x1t, x2t] as the set of all variables in equation (4) wherein all variables could potentially be endogenous. table 2: johansen and juselius co-integration tests eigenvalue trace statistic critical value (5%) no. of ce model 1: lrgdp glf ldi bcp_r smc_r ltgex_r openn inf 0.860335 235.9368 159.5297 none * 0.783126 167.0389 125.6154 at most 1 * 0.660958 113.5436 95.75366 at most 2 * 0.543581 75.68660 69.81889 at most 3 * 0.511029 48.23455 47.85613 at most 4 * 0.378007 23.19372 29.79707 at most 5 0.144209 6.574798 15.49471 at most 6 0.031612 1.124278 3.841466 at most 7 *(**) denotes rejection of the hypothesis at 5%(1%) significance level. trace test indicates 5 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level source: calculations by authors using eviews 9. table 3: johansen and juselius co-integration tests eigenvalue trace statistic critical value (5%) no. of ce model 2: lrgdp glf ldi fs_r ltgex_r openn inf 0.749327 146.2738 125.6154 none * 0.556757 97.84755 95.75366 at most 1 * 0.516777 69.37022 69.81889 at most 2 0.476369 43.91552 47.85613 at most 3 0.361429 21.27165 29.79707 at most 4 0.119897 5.573383 15.49471 at most 5 0.031031 1.103296 3.841466 at most 6 *(**) denotes rejection of the hypothesis at 5%(1%) significance level. trace test indicates 2 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level source: calculations by authors using eviews 9. tables 2 and 3 reveal that there exists co-integration among the variables. that is, there exist a long run relationship among the variables in tables 2 and 3. given the existence of more than one cointegrating vectors in both models, it is pertinent to adopts vector error correction model (vecm) for the analysis of the relationship between financial structure and economic growth. 4.2.the pairwise correlation result as lead up to the multivariate analysis of the model, the correlation among the underlying variables is examined. table 4 shows that economic growth is only positively correlated with fs_r, bcp_r and smc_r measures. this is in line with the theoretical underpinnings which suggest that finance promotes economic growth. fs_r, bcp_r and smc_r have correlation coefficient of 46 %, 87 % and 83 % respectively with economic growth. table 4: correlation coefficients lrgdp glf ldi fs_r bcp_r smc_r ltgex_r openn inf lrgdp 0.260 -0.103 0.459 0.874 0.832 -0.440 -0.379 -0.337 glf 0.260 0.613 -0.076 0.429 0.241 -0.559 -0.673 -0.208 ldi -0.103 0.613 -0.400 0.195 -0.119 -0.377 -0.633 -0.074 fs_r 0.459 -0.076 -0.400 0.117 0.787 -0.188 0.244 -0.270 bcp_r 0.874 0.429 0.195 0.117 0.682 -0.495 -0.683 -0.281 smc_r 0.832 0.241 -0.119 0.787 0.682 -0.435 -0.292 -0.370 ltgex_r -0.440 -0.559 -0.377 -0.188 -0.495 -0.435 0.579 0.235 openess -0.379 -0.673 -0.633 0.244 -0.683 -0.292 0.579 0.273 inf -0.337 -0.208 -0.074 -0.270 -0.281 -0.370 0.235 0.273 source: calculations by authors using eviews 9. copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | afbr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 41 4.3vector error correction model (vecm) to analysis the long and short run relationship between the variables in the models and economic growth, the study employed vecm. the vecm results are as follows: 4.3.1 economic growth effects of financial development this sub-section investigates the relative contribution of both bank and stock market system with control variables in explaining growth. table 5 shows the result. table 5: long run model of economic growth determinants variable coefficient standard error t-statistics c -15.38154 glf 0.022182 0.39784 0.05576 ldi 1.855416 0.15656 11.8515* bcp_r -0.217988 0.01066 -20.4443* smc_r 10.91057 0.90122 12.1065* ltgex_r 0.816945 0.11539 7.08004* openness 0.745104 0.33840 2.20186** note. *(**) indicate significance at 1% (5%) source: calculations by authors using eviews 9. the essence of this sub-section is to examine the significance of bank and stock market activity on economic growth and, whether both are substitute or complement in the long run. table 4 shows that bank activity has a negative effect on economic growth while the stock market activity has a positive effect on economic growth. the implications of the signs of the financial development variables are x-rayed below. from table 5, the bank activity has a negative effect on economic growth in the long run. this result is inconsistent with the bank-based financial structure theory which posits that the unique role of banks in identifying good projects, mobilizing resources, monitoring managers and managing risks promotes economic growth. the result is consistent with ayadi et al. (2013) who also found a negative relationship between bank sector and growth and, attributed it to deficiencies in credit allocation in the economy. the negative relationship does not mean that the banking sector is underdeveloped rather it could be explained by credit allocation problem in nigeria. most borrowings in nigeria are not channelled to productive ventures but rather for consumption spending which does not promote economic growth in the long run. also, most banks are engaging less in financial intermediation activities. for instances, some have become selling agencies, revenue collectors and they are now facilitators of black market forex dealing. hence, bank engages more in non-financial intermediation and unproductive activities than their traditional banking function of intermediating fund from the surplus sector to deficit sector. therefore, the bank activities in relation to economic performance have negative effect. table 5 reveals that the stock market activity has a positive effect on economic growth in the long run. this is consistent with market based theory which opines that big, liquid and well-developed markets foster growth and profit incentives; enhance corporate governance and, facilitate risk management (levine, 2002, and, beck and levine, 2002). the inefficiencies that are inherent in bankbased system as stressed by (levine, 2002) are being reduced by market-based financial systems. it is argued that there is an inverse relationship between stock (bond) price and the interest rate. if the bank interest rate is high, then investor who requires funds will prefer going to the stock market to raise fund since the cost of raising fund in the bank is very high. hence, a market-based financial system is better at enhancing economic growth. on whether both are substitute or complement, the result from table 5 reveals that the signs on both the bank and stock market variables are different; the bank activity sign is negative while stock market sign is positive which implies that both are substitute. hence, this supports the hypothesis that bank and stock market are substitute. this result collaborates with saibu et al, (2009) and, inconsistent with the world bank (2001). the reasons for this result could be based on theoretical argument and problems in credit allocation. however, it is proper to focus on the significance or otherwise of the coefficients of financial development variables, rather than their signs (arestis et al, 2004 and, olofin and afangideh, 2009). given the bank and market system variables, it shows that the both are significantly influencing economic growth in nigeria. the significant of the coefficients of both bank and stock market imply that both systems matter while the reverse is the case. however, to confirm whether both bank and stock market system matter or not in explaining economic growth in nigeria, the relationship between financial structure (overall financial system which combined both systems) and economic growth was examined (see section 4.5 ). copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | afbr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 42 table 6: multivariate vecm causality test (short term) dependent variable independent variable ect(-1) d(lrgdp) d(bcp_r) d(smc_r) d(lrgdp) 0.3306 0.2095 -0.042689*** d(bcp_r) 0.0205** 0.0008* 4.142087* d(smc_r) 0.8917 0.2370 0.031604 *significant at 1%, **significant at 5% and ***significant at 5% source: calculations by authors using eviews 9. after exploring the long run association between economic growth and measures of financial development, we now proceed to multivariate granger causality test based on vecm. at this juncture, it is important to note that the documented cointegration among the variables suggests only their long run association and, while it implies causality but does not reveal the directions of causation among them. table 6 reports the multivariate causalities among the economic growth and financial variables. it examines the short run line of causation between economic growth and financial structure and, other variables. also, multivariate vecm causality helps to determine how the underlying variables enter the model. relatively, the multivariate vecm causality is preferred to vecm system equation in differences since the interpretation of vecm system equation is difficult. table 6 shows that there is no any causation in short term running from financial development variables (bpc_r and smc_r) to economic growth (lrgdp) in the nigeria economy while there is long run causality between financial development variables and economic growth. also, the result reveals that there is a short-run interaction between lrgdp and bpc_r, which runs from economic growth (lrgdp) to financial development (bpc_r). this finding supports the view, the growth-led finance hypothesis. based on this view, the financial development in nigeria follows economic growth. the adjustment coefficients (ect(-1)) in table 6 show the speed of adjustment towards equilibrium path. as shown in the table, the coefficient of adjustment in lrgdp equation is rightly signed and statistically significant at 10 percent significance level. this shows that the underlying variables are cointegrated and a long run equilibrium relationship exists between the variables. the result also reveals that the lrgdp adjust by 4 percent every year whenever the variables drift away from the long run equilibrium, which is quite slow. on the other hand, the coefficients adjustment in equation bpc_r is wrongly signed and significant while that of smc_r is wrongly signed and not significant. 4.4 model appraisal model appraisal is aimed at validating the parameter outcomes achieved by the estimated model. the appraisal is important because if the residuals from the estimated model are problematic, it then means that the model is not efficient and the parameter estimates may be biased. some of the tests carried out on the model are; ar roots, serial correlation, normality and hetroscedasticity. the results are presented below. ar roots test -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 inverse roots of ar characteristic polynomial figure 1: ar roots graph source: calculations by authors using eviews 9. copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | afbr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 43 the ar roots test result in figure 1 indicates that the estimated model is stationary since there are no roots lying outside the unit cycle, meaning that the model is stable. table 7: vec residual serial correlation lm tests lags lm-stat prob 1 36.77971 0.9008 2 47.05216 0.5524 * probs from chi-square with 49 df. ** null hypothesis: no serial correlation at lag order h source: calculations by authors using eviews 9. the serial correlation lm test result of zero probability value indicates the presence of serial correlation while high probability of the lm statistic indicates no serial correlation. in table 7 the probability of 0.5524 at lag 2 is high; therefore, the null hypothesis is rejected and concludes that there is no serial correlation among the underlying variables. table 8: residual normality test chi-sq p value skewness 0.365750 0.5453 kurtosis 0.031476 0.8592 jarque-bera 0.397226 0.8199 *null hypothesis: residuals are multivariate normal source: calculations by authors using eviews 9. table 8 reveals a clear indication of normal distribution. this is because all the probabilities are above 5% and 10%, hence the null hypothesis of normality is rejected. table 9: hetroscedasticity test (white test with no cross terms) joint test: chi-sq df prob. 866.9252 840 0.2526 *the null hypothesis: there is no heteroskedesticity source: calculations by authors using eviews 9. table 9 shows that the null hypothesis cannot be rejected since the probability (0.2526) is greater than 5% and 10%. this, therefore, means that there is no model misspecifications and hence can be relied on. 4.5 economic growth effects of financial structure this sub-section examines the effect of financial structure (the overall financial system) on growth. table 10 shows the result. table 10: long run model effect of financial structure on economic growth variable coefficient standard error t-statistics c -2.162760 glf -15.28466 4.31484 -3.54235** ldi 10.65363 1.28779 8.27280* fs_r 222.2282 57.9683 3.83362** ltgex_r 0.122002 1.41658 0.08612 openn 10.81927 2.88405 3.75142** inf -0.036314 0.01505 -2.41233** note. *(**) indicate significance at 1% (5%) source: calculations by authors using eviews 9. copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | afbr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 44 from table 10, financial structure (fs_r) is positively and significantly related to economic growth in nigeria in the long run. theoretically, the result is consistent with the market-based view. higher coefficient (222.2) of fs_r means a system that is capital market-based dominant while a lower fs_r coefficient means more of a bank-based system (olofin and afangideh, 2009). the stock market based view posits a significant positive relationship between financial structure (fs_r) and economic growth while the bank-based view predicts a negative significance relationship between financial structure (fs_r) and economic growth. it is important to note that stock market liquidity, as measured by the market capitalization and banking sector activity, as measured by bank credit to private sector are more robust in predicting economic growth. this is inconsistent with the levine and zervos (1998) and saibu et al, (2009) results that market capitalization is not a robust predictor of economic growth. consequently, the debate between bank based and market based is not a nigerian phenomenon. however, for the purposes of this study, it is important to focus on the significance or otherwise of the coefficient of fs_r, rather than its sign (arestis et al, 2004 and olofin and afangideh, 2009). a significant coefficient of fs_r implies that financial structure matters while the reverse is the case. the result posits that the overall financial structure (fs_r) is the most useful way to distinguish financial systems (levine, 2002) since both bank and stock market system matter in explaining economic growth as against bank-based versus market-based debate. this is consistent with financial services theory as well as olofin and afangideh (2009) but inconsistent with saibu et al, (2009). table 11: multivariate vecm causality test (short term) dependent variable independent variable ect(-1) d(lrgd p) d(glf) d(ldi) d(fs_r ) d(ltgex_ r) d(openn) d(inf) d(lrgdp) 0.36350 4 0.4650 08 1.2251 23 0.054826 0.042555 1.48960 4 0.007709* * d(glf) 1.31572 6 0.1078 69 0.63850 2 0.001995 0.028172 0.070575 0.003715 d(ldi) 3.20862 4** 0.4935 29 2.09791 6 0.048394 1.121156 0.71310 6 0.033223* ** d(fs_r) 2.42873 8 0.6860 79 2.52315 4 3.421969** 1.738158 1.07702 4 0.001157* * d(ltgex_ r) 0.12928 6 0.2004 66 0.3417 08 0.03394 8 0.033132 0.00229 4 -0.008095 d(openn) 3.18415 2** 2.5516 27 0.8235 14 0.3269 07 4.764959** 2.74369 5** 0.030222* * d(inf) 0.11706 2 0.4068 42 0.44641 2 0.6803 21 0.702241 0.233062 2.156642 *significant at 1%, **significant at 5% and ***significant at 5% source: calculations by authors using eviews 9. as shown in table 11, the coefficient on fs_r was not significant on economic growth model in the short run in nigeria. this reveals that the financial structure is not important in the short run. the results of table 9 and the short run are different. the short run result shows that the insignificant of fs_r is inconsistent with that of the long run. this could be attributed to gestation gap between finance mobilization, project implementation and the impact of the project. results of the error correction representation (ect(-1)), articulate the dynamic behaviour of the vecm model, where the coefficient of the error correction term in growth model is negative and highly significant at 5 % which confirms the existence of the long-run relationship between the underlying variables and represent the speed of adjustment with which the model attains the long-run steady state equilibrium following an exogenous shock in the short-run. in the growth model the ect(-1) coefficient is about 0.008 percent which is quite slow. this means that the deviation from long-run equilibrium will be corrected by a speed between 0.008 percent every year. next is model appraisal which aimed at validating the parameter outcomes of the estimated model. copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | afbr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 45 4.5.1 model appraisal the ar roots test result in the appendices indicates that the estimated model is stationary since there are no roots lying outside the unit cycle, meaning that the model is stable. the serial correlation lm test result shows a probability of 0.9113 at lag 1 which is high; therefore, the null hypothesis is rejected and the study concludes that there is no serial correlation among the underlying variables. also, the normality test result shows an indication of normal distribution. this is because all the probabilities of skewness, kurtosis and jarque-bera at lag 1 are above 5% and 10%, hence the null hypothesis of normality is rejected. furthermore, the hetroscedasticity test reveals that the null hypothesis cannot be rejected since the probability (0.3685) is greater than 5% and 10%. this, therefore, means that there is no model misspecifications problem. 5. conclusion and policy recommendations this study examined the relationship between financial structure and economic growth in nigeria. as lead up to financial structure and economic growth relationship analysis, the competing theoretical views of bank and market based financial system, and economic growth is explored. the results of the study show that stock market-based has a positive significant effect on growth while bank-based has a negative significant effect on growth. this implies that both bank-based and market-based are substitute, therefore, market-based financial system is better at enhancing economic growth. however, the study focuses on the significance of coefficients of financial development variables (bank-based and market-based), rather than their signs. given the bank and market system variables, it shows that the both are significantly influencing economic growth in nigeria. the significant of the coefficients of both bank and stock market variables imply that both systems matter in explaining economic growth in nigeria, thereby favouring their combination. the result of the study also reveals that financial structure which captures the combination of stock market-based and bank-based financial development has a positive significant effect on growth. the coefficient of financial structure has a positive sign, significant and very high. this is consistent with the stock market view. higher coefficient of financial structure means a system that is capital market-based dominant while a lower financial structure coefficient means more of a bank-based system. the stock market based view posits a significant positive relationship between financial structure and economic growth while the bankbased view predicts a negative significance relationship between financial structure and economic growth. however, for the purposes of this study not to be defeated, the study focuses on the significance or otherwise of the coefficient of financial structure, rather than its sign and magnitude. a significant coefficient of financial structure implies that financial structure matters in explaining growth. therefore, the study posits that the overall financial structure is the most useful way to assess the financial systems since both bank and stock market system matter in explaining economic growth as against bank-based versus market-based debate. the result is consistent with the financial services view that both bank and stock market are relevant to the economic growth in nigeria. based on the empirical evidence, the study therefore recommends that there should be continuous holistic reforms of both banking and stock market simultaneously, as the development in one sector has a neglect effect on the other. none of the sectors should be excluded for reforms aimed at overall development of the financial system and the economy as a whole. references allen, f. and gale, d. 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(1998). the german system of corporate governance: a model which should not be imitated.” in s.w. black and m. moersch (eds.), competition and convergence in financial markets: the german and anglo-american models. new york: north holland. world bank (2001). finance for growth: policy choices in a volatile world. a world bank policy research report. washington d.c.: world bank. world development indicators (wdi). appendices -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 inverse roots of ar characteristic polynomial ar roots graph of financial structure and growth source: calculations by authors using eviews 9. vec residual serial correlation lm tests of fs_r and growth lags lm-stat prob 1 36.26966 0.9113 2 51.68200 0.3695 * probs from chi-square with 49 df. ** null hypothesis: no serial correlation at lag order h source: calculations by authors using eviews 9. residual normality test of fs_r and growth chi-sq p value copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | afbr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 48 skewness 0.059595 0.8071 kurtosis 0.338092 0.5609 jarque-bera 0.397687 0.8197 *null hypothesis: residuals are multivariate normal source: calculations by authors using eviews 9. hetroscedasticity test (white test with no cross terms) of fs_r and growth joint test: chi-sq df prob. 457.4501 448 0.3685 *the null hypothesis: there is no heteroskedesticity source: calculations by authors using eviews 9. copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. this is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr american economic & social review; vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 issn 2576-1269e-issn 2576-1277 published by centre for research on islamic banking & finance and business, usa 30 impact of choppies enterprise in southern africa: an exploratory study on strategic management perspective taelo simon post graduate researcher school of economics and business administration chongqing university, china e-mail: simontaelo@outlook.com abdur rakib nayeem lecturer department of business administration times university bangladesh, bangladesh & doctoral scholar school of economics and business administration chongqing university, china email: l1900120@cqu.edu.cn md. khorshed alam post graduate researcher software engineering school of big data and software engineering chongqing university, china email: khorshedalam49@gmail.com md. shahab ali raja lecturer department of business administration university of kotliazad jammu and kashmir, pakistan email: shahabali48@hotmail.com abstract organizations nowadays are increasingly impacting in using strategic management to improve their performance; this study has mainly focused on the impact of strategic management on the performance of choppies enterprises. choppies enterprise botswana-based choppies is an investment holding company operating in the retail sector across sub-saharan africa. its operations are food and general merchandise retailing as well as financial services transactions supported by centralized distribution channels, through distribution centers and logistical support assets in botswana, south africa, zimbabwe, kenya, and zambia. this study focused on the strategic management of choppies enterprises. the main research problem was to make an in-depth analysis of its competitive strategy and how to implement it. the main research method was qualitative research by analyzing their company data, annual reports, and making interviews with the manager, staff, and customers in botswana shops. the result shows a clear image of the process of strategic management by choppies' case. some recommendations made for choppies help to improve their sustainable developments and support a vivid example for many companies. in the theoretical part, it described the definition, process, benefit, and challenge of strategic management. in the practical part, an exhaustive analysis of the company's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats was made by using the detailed figures. keywords: strategic management, business performance, competitive advantage, choppies, enterprises. copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 31 1. introduction strategic management practices can be used in bridging the performance gap experienced by a firm. organizations apply strategic management practices in their operations which has a lot of influence on market conditions, employee knowledge, and diversification of production line. their success rests upon effective strategic management practices. strategic management became the most important basic features in the success of any organization, projects or business, and it helps to build a base essential to develop and measure performance, strategic management is a system of integrated processes related to strategic analysis and emanating from the organization's vision, mission until reach to the organization goals in growth and continuity and get a competitive advantage. small businesses are vital contributors to the health of the economy and diversity of opportunity in society. it is not only important for all businesses to understand why they are in business but also to put in practice a successful and suitable strategy to enhance business performance (jofre, 2011). the online assumes an essential part in our life so individuals can chat with each other anyplace on the planet through the online-based transaction, they can send the email whenever, they can search for data on the web, they can play the amusement with individuals over the world, and they can even purchase things on the web. as indicated by the exploration of the u.s. (shaownet al., 2018).when it comes to customer service, this is probably one of the most important parts of your business. suppose, it will know how the consumer's response to make the purchase decision of that product in case of having the awareness about the product (nayeem et al., 2020). without your customers coming back for more and more of your product, there is no way that you're going to be successful. that's why a high-quality customer service operation is crucial to the future of your company. this is because a strategy is a source of competitive advantage that has been used in recent years by different companies to gain competency over their rivalries. there has been an increased interest in the role of small and medium enterprises in job creation and economic growth globally. developing small and medium enterprises (smes) helps to achieve sustainable growth as a centralized theme. enterprises play a vital role in the country's overall production networks and they are core to the economic growth of developing countries. the contributions of formal enterprises are 50% of total employment and 33% of the national income of emerging economies. businesses need to hire employees. they create jobs and these economic opportunities uplift and support communities through increasing the quality of life and overall standard of living. when new businesses export goods and services to nearby regions, these enterprises contribute directly to a region's productivity and earnings. this increase in revenue strengthens an economy and promotes the overall welfare of a population. choppies enterprises limited is one of the biggest supermarkets in botswana and they operate a supermarket chain, which is engaged in providing consumer goods. the stores offer a wide variety of like fruits, vegetables, butchery, bakery, cosmetics, groceries, etc. it is a leading market retailer in botswana with more than 200 stores countrywide. 1.1 research problem choppies enterprises have an important role to play in developing the economy of botswana, not only in economic development but also in poverty alleviation and job creation. even though this is the case most choppies stores in botswana fail within the first phase due to the lack of strategic management skills by those leading the organization. 1.2 objectives of research the objective of the study was to establish strategic management practices and their influence on the performance of choppies enterprises in botswana and to explore competitive business strategies that can be adopted to develop and sustain the enterprise sector in african countries. 1.3 significance of the research the significance of the study is to analyze choppies enterprises in botswana and advise them on strategic management for it to be competent. the study will be guided by the following research questions; how to take advantage of strategic management to facilitate the development of choppies. the study will enable managers to understand the need for strategic management. the study will be of great value to the manager of companies to the managers and owners of enterprises in making appropriate strategies for their firms to enhance competitive advantage and performance and will provide room for further research on improving adoption of strategic management practices in botswana since it is amongst the first papers regarding this topic. the findings and recommendations of this research will not be useful only to choppies enterprises but to any other enterprise that needs to be competent to beat the market competition. 1.4 limitation of the research there are some limitations to the process of data collection. firstly, the exact figures of the sales situation are avoided in the interview. all of the analysis is concluded from the official website and annual reports. the answers from the interviewees are more general information therefore the recommendation cannot be made especially for the choppies stores in the different selected areas of the research. most of the common customers only have no clue of strategic management due to the abstractness of this topic, so it tends to be limited to the strategists and senior management level. copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 32 2. literature review a strategy is an integrated and coordinated set of commitments and actions designed to exploit core competencies and gain competitive advantage. strategic competitiveness is achieved when a firm successfully formulates and implements a value-creating strategy. kenneth andrews defined strategy as "the pattern of major objectives, purposes or goals and essential policies or plans for achieving the goals, stated in such a way as to define what business the company is in or is to be in and the kind of company it is or is to be." this definition of strategy emphasizes on purpose and how the purpose will be achieved (hitt et al., 2012). it also emphasizes the values and the cultures that the company stands for. kenichi ohmae defines strategy as "how a corporation endeavors to differentiate itself positively from its competitors, using its relative strengths to better satisfy customer needs." ohmae’s definition highlights the competitive aspect of strategy and the strengths required to satisfy customer needs. according to the library and archives in southern africa (2017), choppies was born in 1986 in a botswana town called lobatse. they sell groceries and general merchandise. the online assumes an essential part in our life so individuals can chat with each other anyplace on the planet through the online-based transaction, they can send the email whenever, they can search for data on the web, they can play the amusement with individuals over the world, and they can even purchase things on the web (shaown et al., 2018). the first store was the wayside supermarket. 1993 saw the opening of a second store still in lobatse. from 1993, choppies embarked on a great expansion drive, with new stores being opened in the greater gaborone periphery. choppies became a listed company on the botswana stock exchange on january 26 and is a constituent of the bse domestic company index with an approximate market capitalization of bwp2.4 billion as at 20 december 2012. it was found to be an ideal point as we intend to supply to all stores within a 500km radius. of the significant developments that choppies has been active in, 2014 saw the opening of a distribution centre in zimbabwe. our foresight is to grow into east africa, with an emphasis in tanzania and kenya. choppies believes in the potential of the african market hence, especially in muslim consumer's continued growth. this will probably help provide improved facts and information particularly in the islamic marketing research area (nayeem, 2018). only then we can apply the concept and see how those two can work together for business enlargement in the future (nayeem et al., 2020). 2.1 economic impact on botswana through enterprises botswana is one of africa's landlocked countries, located in the south-west part of the continent. it is surrounded by four countries namibia to the west and north, south africa to the south, zimbabwe to the east, and shares a tiny section of its borders (about 156 meters or 171 yards) with zambia in the northeast. the current population of botswana is 2,324,492 as of sunday, december 8, 2019, based on world meters elaboration of the latest united nations data. large firms normally tend to produce an elite number of high wage income earners whereas smes produce a significantly large number of relatively lowincome earners (maramwidze-merrison, 2019). the development of smes would, therefore, help spread income to more people. since the majority of batswana (over 65 %) are living in rural areas, the promotion of the development of smes should continue to be a policy priority to narrow the gap between urban and rural development and to monitor social inequities and rural migration (eriksson & kovalainen, 2008). the report says this is due to limited management skills, lack of access to markets, poor work ethics, excessive laws and regulations, lack of information on government assistance programs, lack of entrepreneurial “role models” and financial constraints though several measures have been proposed to address some of these constraints. 2.2 impact of strategic management practice on enterprises performance looking back in history, the basic benefit of strategic management has been helped organizations formulate sound strategies by using the more systematic, logical, and rational approach to strategic choice. strategic management practices have been observed to significantly relate to the sustainability and growth of firms in the wake of modern corporate governance systems globally (muriuki et al., 2017). several studies related to strategic management and performance have been done in kenya and internationally. 2.3 strategic management and challenges of choppies the point of a strategy is a new vision. this is an opportunity to create a road map with broad buy-in and narrowed focus. there should be distinct milestones, a clear timeline, and precise roles for employees. if taking on a large, company-wide initiative, it is better to start small to ensure goals are manageable and achievable. from there, resources and objectives can be expanded until the result is achieved in the set timelines. while strategy implementation is about aligning different activities, it is also about creating commitment throughout the entire organization. commitment is created when employees see where and how they can make a difference and are stimulated to take action within the boundaries set by the strategy. but it takes time to create an organizational context that stimulates widespread action-taking. all too often, managers do not take the time to create that context (verweire, 2018). copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 33 figure 1. an analysis of the external and internal environment of choppies the swot analysis framework facilitates an organization to identify internal strategic factors such as -strengths and weaknesses, & external strategic factors such as opportunities and threats. it leads to a 2x2 matrix – also called swot matrix. 3. choppies swot analysis a swot analysis of choppies involves the strengths, weaknesses; opportunities, as well as threats, which can be briefly shown in the table below. strength low-cost prices strong brand image weakness low quality slow supply and distribution management opportunities scope to expand the business international market penetration threats competitors new superstores 3.1 strengths of choppies –internal strategic factors  good returns on capital expenditure – choppies enterprises, is relatively successful at the execution of new projects and generated good returns on capital expenditure by building new revenue streams.  automation of activities brought consistency of quality to choppies, products and has enabled the company to scale up and scale down based on the demand conditions in the market.  strong dealer community – it has built a culture among distributors & dealers where the dealers not only promote the company's products but also invest in training the sales team to explain to the customer how he/she can extract the maximum benefits out of the products.  successful track record of integrating complimentary firms through mergers & acquisitions. it has successfully integrated the number of technology companies in the past few years to streamline its operations and to build a reliable supply chain.  strong brand portfolio – over the years choppies has invested in building a strong brand portfolio. this brand portfolio can be extremely useful if the organization wants to expand into new product categories.  high level of customer satisfaction – the company with its dedicated customer relationship management department has able to achieve a high level of customer satisfaction among present customers and good brand equity among potential customers. 3.2 weakness of choppies – internal strategic factors  the company has not been able to tackle the challenges present by the new entrants in the segment and has lost a small market share in the niche categories. choppies has to build an internal feedback mechanism directly from the sales team on the ground to counter these challenges.  days inventory is high compare to the competitors – making the company raise more capital to invest in the channel. this can impact the long term growth of choppies  investment in research and development is below the fastest growing players in the industry. even though choppies, is spending above the industry average on research and development, it has not been able to compete with the leading players in the industry in terms of innovation. it has come across as a mature firm looking forward to bring out products based on tested features in the market. copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 34  not highly successful at integrating firms with different work cultures. as mentioned earlier even though choppies is successful at integrating small companies it has its share of failure to merge firms that have different work cultures.  there are gaps in the product range sold by the company. this lack of choice can give a new competitor a foothold in the market.  financial planning is not done properly and efficiently. the current asset ratio and liquid asset ratios suggest that the company can use the cash more efficiently than what it is doing at present.  we need more investment in new technologies. given the scale of expansion and different geographies the company is planning to expand into, choppies needs to put more money in technology to integrate the processes across the board. right now the investment in technologies is not at par with the vision of the company. 3.3 opportunities for choppies – external strategic factors  economic uptick and an increase in customer spending, after years of recession and slow growth rate in the industry, is an opportunity for choppies, to capture new customers and increase its market share.  the new technology provides an opportunity for choppies to practices differentiated pricing strategy in the new market. it will enable the firm to maintain its loyal customers with great service and lure new customers through other value oriented propositions.  new customers from online channels – over the past few years, the company has invested a vast sum of money into the online platform. this investment has opened a new sales channel for choppies in the next few years the company can leverage this opportunity by knowing its customer better and serving their needs using big data analytic.  lower inflation rate – the low inflation rate bring more stability in the market, enable credit at a lower interest rate to the customers of choppies 3.4 threats are choppies faces – external strategic factors  the demand for highly profitable products is seasonal in nature and any unlikely event during the peak season may impact the profitability of the company in the short to medium term.  new technologies developed by the competitor or market disrupt could be a serious threat to the industry in medium to long term future.  the shortage of skilled workforce in a certain global market represents a threat to the steady growth of profits for choppies in those markets.  changing consumer buying behavior from an online channel could be a threat to the existing physical infrastructure is a driven supply chain model.  growing strengths of local distributors also present a threat in some markets as the competition is paying higher margins to the local distributors. 4. brand strategy your brand is only as strong as the energy you put into it. brand building and positioning require synchronized efforts of several moving parts to create a perception in the marketplace that drives your business forward. there are so many advantages to brand strategy including creating market differentiation, a sense of belonging to the company. choppies supermarket retail offers include leading international food brands and fast-moving consumer goods (fmcg) products as well as choppies' private label for value-minded consumers. 5. differentiation strategy defines differentiation strategy as to how you make your firm stand out from otherwise similar competitors in the marketplace. usually, it involves highlighting a meaningful difference between you and your competitors. and that difference must be valued by your potential clients. a strong differentiated will provide a competitive advantage for your firm. so far, choppies is the only retailer in botswana that provides financial services. copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 35 6. diversification choppies has full supermarket offerings, including bakery, deli, fresh produce, financial services. choppies bakery offers the best bread and pastries of all varieties such as buckwheat bread sweet bun and more, fruit-filled, sugar-coated, powdered, glazed, and dipped pastries complemented with beverages. the deli department hosts an array of traditional and international foods. fruit and vegetable departments are traditionally key departments for choppies. 7. pricing strategy pricing strategies help you choose prices that maximize profits and shareholder value while considering consumer and market demand by stating that pricing strategies take into account many of your business factors, like revenue goals, marketing objectives, target audience, brand positioning, and product attributes. they’re also influenced by external factors like consumer demand, competitor pricing, and overall market and economic trends. 8. product positioning strategy according to (gabriel & lang, 2015) your product positioning strategy is one of the most important marketing initiatives you will grapple with when introducing or re-branding goods and services. in a nutshell, product positioning refers to the inherent qualities that distinguish the item you’re selling from comparable items marketed by your competitors. 9. environmental analysis (internal) the environmental analysis consists of objectives, vision, mission, and value of the company. an important measure in an internal analysis is to determine your organization's level of strength and competency. a strong organization uses updated technology systems and equipment to accomplish its work. 10. competitive advantage  consistently lowest prices  stores close to commuter and residential nodes  attractive ranges of popular items at value-for-money prices  vertically integrated  excellent logistics with in-house distribution and centralized warehousing  “reverse logistics” principle – focuses on lowest pricing to end-users  economies of scale enabling choppies to deliver the best value for money for consumers our objective is to offer you an assortment of well-priced clothing at good quality and great prices. we aim to have something for you and all your family, all ages and sizes. choppies facts – holding company based in botswana; 212 stores, three store formats: hyper stores; superstores; value stores, seven sub-saharan african countries, retail space 308704m², inhouse distribution network, 12 distribution centers, warehouse space 71 010m², fleet of 820 commercial vehicles, 15 000+ employees – 98% indigenous staff in countries of operation, providing customers with more alternatives – we believe that our customers across africa are ambitious to improve their standard of living and upscale their shopping experience and us at choppies work relentlessly to deliver on that promise, since inception in 1986 choppies has grown from a single store in botswana to over 200 stores in growing african markets which provide the ideal springboard for further expansion into neighboring under-serviced markets. gross margin calculation was done to have an estimate of the difference between total return and variable costs. the analysis is also easily understandable because of its simplicity (nayeem et al., 2020). 11. business strategy of choppies the strategy of choppies is both low cost and differentiation. they are constantly looking to reduce costs in every step of the business to offer to the customers the best prices. their motto is value for your money meaning that they are assuring quality products to their customers. at the same time, they want to be different than the competitors to have a competitive advantage. this sector is competitive and choppies need to be different to attract the customers and increase the market shares. choppies have a strong brand name. their products are all marked with their brand and logo. 12. comparison between choppies and spar botswana the differences between choppies and spar have been shown in this chapter. they have something in common which is easy to compare with. both of them are successful companies and have huge popularity in the same industry. however, they own a different business strategy to conduct business performance. benchmarking in here is aiming at evaluating choppies’s strategic management and learning some experiences to improve their strategy and performance better. copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 36 13. business model retailers further benefit from the merchandising expertise, support services, and benchmarking offered by spar, which enables them to offer a range of products at competitive prices. voluntary trading further equips retailers with the ability to customize their product and service offering to be responsive to their local, niche consumer segment needs and expectations. this unlocks value for both retailers and consumers. to support this value creation, our business model is grounded in spar's core business as a wholesaler and distributor of goods. at each point in the value chain, we support close working relationships with key stakeholders to enhance our value proposition. we strive to manage our use of resources and the six capitals of value creation through environmentally and socially sustainable business practices. 14. swot analysis of spar 14.1 strengths  strengths of spar group inc. is the first element of the swot matrix. according to (byrne,2018)  the geographic presence in different regions can act as one of the major strengths of the organization. it determines the business's reached to the target market and ensures easy accessibility.  the wide product portfolio can allow the organization to expand the customer base and offset the losses from one product category with benefits obtained from the other.  the location advantage can improve the competitive positioning of the firm in various ways, such aslower cost, improved accessibility, or enhanced brand image.  the well-developed and efficiently integrated it infrastructure can improve operational efficiency and increase knowledge of the latest market trends.  competent and committed human capital can act as a powerful source of competitive advantage, particularly when business is service-oriented.  workplace diversity can also act as a major business strength, particularly when the organization intends to operate in the international market. 14.2 weakness  there are gaps in the product range sold by the company. this lack of choice can give a new competitor a foothold in the market.  we need more investment in new technologies. given the scale of expansion and different geographies the company is planning to expand into, spar group, inc. needs to put more money in technology to integrate the processes across the board. right now the investment in technologies is not at par with the vision of the company. 14.3 opportunities  the exponential growth in the population and particularly in the existing or potential customer segments is a great growth opportunity for the business organization.  the changing customer needs, tastes, and preferences can act as an opportunity if the business organization has good market knowledge.  the development of new technologies to assist the product/service production and delivery process can be exploited to embed innovation in business operations. the advanced technological integration can decrease costs, improve efficiency, and result in the quick introduction of innovative products.  reduction in the interest rates makes the fundraising and financing at lower cost easier for the business organization.  customers may start preferring new and creative products/services as a result of changing tastes.  the emergence of new market segments and new niches provide business and product line expansion opportunities.  improvement in the customerslifestyle and standards mean more consumption on consumer goods and services, and more opportunities to encourage the purchase (byrne, 2018). 14.4 threats  changing consumer buying behavior from an online channel could be a threat to the existing physical infrastructure is a driven supply chain model.  new technologies developed by the competitor or market disrupt could be a serious threat to the industry in medium to long term future.  the demand for highly profitable products is seasonal in nature and any unlikely event during the peak season may impact the profitability of the company in the short to medium term. copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 37 15. conclusion the theme of this research project is to discuss the importance of strategic management. as people know, it is one of the compulsory subjects for business students. nevertheless, why is it so important to learn the knowledge and how to apply the theory into practice? that is a tough question. due to the globalization and development of the internet, it is necessary to know the knowledge about strategic management for a company. to solve this problem and explore the benefits of strategic management, this paper was made / by a case study of choppies enterprises. it was a difficult task to analyze the strategy of choppies because of a lack of experience and information about this enterprise. in the theoretical part, as the strategic management involved vast quantities of information, this project selected the basic concepts concerning the topic to discuss. and the strategic analysis as a crucial part was stressed. thereby the exhaustive analysis of choppies was made to illustrate the importance of strategic management and provide a successful experience for more companies. this included the current financial performance of choppies, the company's mission and objectives, and corporate governance. besides, the societal trends affecting the company were presented along with swot analysis. the strategic analysis of choppies entailed all aspects of environmental scanning. these included environmental analysis showing how the company is affected by external factors as well as how the company deals with them. besides, environmental scanning also included the internal analysis showing aspects of the organization and its economy. the strategic analysis came together after analyzing a strategy of another company-spar and comparing it to choppies’s. two companies had remarkable differences but were noticed to be quite similar after all. based on the comparison of the companies 'strategies and despite the similarities, a conclusion was made that h&m should learn something from zara but don't need to afraid of it. 16. scope of the future research when finishing this research it can be found that strategic management has played a significant role in the success of choppies. in this research project, it only concentrates on a case study of choppies. probably it cannot be applied to other companies or fields. however, it can be concluded that every company needs an accurate strategy before they explore the market. they should be clear about the marketing analysis and the advantage, disadvantages, mission, vision, and goals. people can learn some successful experiences from some examples, but can't copy the strategy from others. since every company has its way of operation and characteristics. the author hopes this research project can help choppies achieve a better performance soon and it can raise more and more attention to strategic management. there is visionary management where there is the hope of making botswana a prosperous nation with better living standards, high per capital income as summarized in vision 2030 of this nation. this could only be achieved when all entities are performing well for the benefit of the nation at large. acknowledgment i would like to acknowledge the strict and focused guidance i got from my supervisor, professor yan wei. thank you for sharing your wisdom with me and seeing me through. my heartfelt appreciation and indebtedness also go to my family especially my mum, my brothers for making my dreams come through by giving me moral support all the time. finally and most importantly, i wish to thank my god and my creator for bringing me this far. references byrne. (2018). does the management has the customer impact on market analysis in choppers in south africa, journal of management, 3(2), 23-32. eriksson, p., & kovalainen, a. (2008). qualitative methods in business research.sage publications ltd. london, 3(2), 43-45. gabriel, y., & lang, t. (2015).the unmanageable consumer.sage. hitt, m. a., ireland, r. d., & hoskisson, r. e. (2012). strategic management cases: competitiveness and globalization. cengage learning. jofre, s. (2011). strategic management: the theory and practice of strategy in (business) organizations. library and archives in southern africa (2017).choppies integrated annual report. retrieved from https://choppiesgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/20i6/05/choppies-annual-report_2017-i.pdf maramwidze-merrison, e. (2016). innovative methodologies in qualitative research: social media window for accessing organisational elites for interviews. electronic journal of business research methods, 14(2). muriuki, m. w., ipara, h., &kiringe, j. w. (2017). the cost of livestock lost to lions and other wildlife species in the amboseli ecosystem, kenya. european journal of wildlife research, 63(4), 60. nayeem, a. r., islam, m. s., & akter, m. f. (2020).the influencing factors of brand equity on consumer purchase intention of cell phones in bangladesh.gsj, 8(1). nayeem, a.r. (2018).halal food awareness of young adult muslim consumer’s: comparative study between bangladesh and philippines, global journal of management and business research: e-marketing, 18(7), 1.0. shawon, s. s., hasan, m. a., nayeem, a. r., & uddin, m. b. (2018).online purchasing behavior among bangladeshi young generation: influencing factors and impact. asian business review, 8(3), 17-128. copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 38 verweire, k. (2018). the challenges of implementing strategy. journal of strategic management, 8(2), 123. copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. this is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) american economic & social review vol. 8, no. 1; 2021 issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 published by cribfb, usa 1 evaluation of patients’ satisfaction in telemedicine service quality: a case study on maizbhanderi foundation, fatikchari, bangladesh syed irfanul hoque managing trustee darul irfan research institute (diri), bangladesh nayeb sajjadah nasheen maizbhandar darbar sharif, fatikchari, chittagong, bangladesh e-mail: tasauf.darulirfan@gmail.com professor dr. asif mahbub karim, fcgia dean, binary graduate school binary university of management and entrepreneurship, malaysia e-mail: drasifmkarim@gmail.com md. rabiul hossen lecturer department of english nanupur laila kabir university college, bangladesh associate member darul irfan research institute (diri), bangladesh e-mail: tasauf.darulirfan@gmail.com dina arjumand student department of “urban & regional planning” chittagong university of engineering & technology associate member darul irfan research institute (diri), bangladesh e-mail: tasauf.darulirfan@gmail.com abstract telemedicine provides healthcare services to the patients through the adaptation of a telecommunication system, as opposed to the face-to-face conventional way of visiting a hospital and doctor's chamber. in the new-normal situation during covid 19, telemedicine is a new way forward in the absence of conventional appointments with doctors to ensure regular health services. it is important to evaluate patients' satisfaction with service qualities and their perception of telemedicine service. the study proposed a conceptual framework based on the e-servqual model and tam model to evaluate the service qualities and customers' satisfaction. data has been collected through a telephone questionnaire survey from the patients through the psychiatric department who have received healthcare services provided by maizbhanderi foundation. data has been analyzed using ibm spss statistics version 23 according to the patients’ responses on the mailto:tasauf.darulirfan@gmail.com mailto:drasifmkarim@gmail.com mailto:tasauf.darulirfan@gmail.com https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 8, no. 1; 2021 2 service qualities including responsiveness, reliability, information quality, empathy, ease of use, perceived usefulness, and their satisfaction with the telemedicine service. the study used spearman rank co-relation to evaluate the co-relation of service qualities with customer satisfaction following the conceptual framework of the study. the result shows a positive co-relation of service qualities with customers’ satisfaction. the study will help to determine the customers' satisfaction with service qualities using technology. keywords: e-servqual model, tam model, service quality, customer satisfaction, maizbhanderi foundation. introduction when longer life expectancy and costs have become a challenging issue to the present healthcare service system, telehealth service is providing a way to examine symptoms of patients by ensuring treatments, developed communication systems with quick responses. in developing countries, telemedicine services act as an adequate health care delivery system (ayesha et al., 2020). service quality is very significant for the satisfaction of the customers, faith, and retention and so it has aroused huge controversy for decades (baber, 2019). customer satisfaction can be used as a thought in an overall assessment of the product, with value measurement obtained through experience and feelings that have been tested by the customers to the product (tantarto et al., 2020) . it is very significant to have the acceptance of the patients for the successful implementations of telehealth services (huang & liu, 2015). it is important to evaluate the service qualities of telemedicine service according to the opinion of the customers. problem statement the covid-19 disease has a quick expansion around the world and it was first reported in december 2019 in china (alam, 2020). telemedicine is putting at the center stage of the digital health care solutions by the physician offices as the coronavirus pandemic has a swift shift in the health care delivery system (chowdhury et al., 2021). according to this pandemic situation, maizbhanderi foundation has taken a step for providing healthcare services through virtual mode as telemedicine service. customers’ satisfaction determination is very important for any service or business company. if the customers don’t have a good perception or satisfaction level, it is difficult for the company to run with the service. evaluation of patients’ satisfaction in the service quality of telemedicine is also important. the paper focuses on determining patients' satisfaction with the service qualities of telemedicine service provided by the maizbhanderi foundation. the study proposed a framework based on the e-servqual model and tam model to evaluate the service qualities. objectives  to evaluate the perception of the patients’ satisfaction about the service qualities of the telemedicine service.  to find out the relationship of service qualities with customer satisfaction. an introduction to the method telemedicine service is provided through video conferencing using the zoom platform or whatsapp by maizbhanderi foundation. to understand the patients' perception of the telemedicine service, the study has conducted a telephone questionnaire survey. the researchers have developed a questionnaire based on the e-servqual model and tam model including the service qualities; responsiveness, reliability, information quality, empathy, ease of use, perceived usefulness. data https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 8, no. 1; 2021 3 were collected from 50 participants who are psychiatric patients. they have shared their perception of the telemedicine service and satisfaction level with this service provided by the maizbhanderi foundation. they also have told their interest to use the service in future. research questions  how was the perception of the patients about the service qualities?  are the patients overall satisfied with the service?  is there any relation between service qualities with customer satisfaction? literature review telemedicine service telemedicine service has got a solid foundation as a possible, reliable, and efficient technology that is provided by information technologies and telecommunications which are being amplified rapidly (sood et al., 2007). the activities of our life and business can be overhauled with help of information and communication technology (ict) (economic & review, 2020). telemedicine service can ensure a decision under conditions of uncertainty and urgency which is considered as an emergency clinical activity (haimi et al., 2018). telemedicine service can ensure improved access to health care which enables patients to get care diagnosis and treatment from a remote area or at a distance (kho et al., 2020) service quality in telemedicine service the measurement of service quality helps to evaluate the needs of consumers and also analyze the level of satisfaction of the customers with the provided services (ghotbabadi et al., 2015). it is needed to understand how the company is running its business for several reasons (akter, 2021). the significance of evaluating the perception of the patients is recognized by the healthcare providers and the satisfaction of the patient is used as an indicator of service quality (gustke et al., 2000) e-service quality e-sq which means electronic service quality is very significant by which the satisfaction level of the customers with the services of any business can be easily determined (baber, 2019). the customers can be easily involved in the product development process by e-service quality which can offer the competitive advantages of online commercial companies (santos, 2003). the service quality model is much known in the market research field, but it is not applicable in online-based services. as telemedicine service was provided using an e-platform, authors have used the e-servqual model. by reviewing papers of the e-servqual model, authors have selected four qualities such as responsiveness, reliability, information quality, empathy which will be suitable for evaluating telemedicine service quality perfectly. tam model in the tam model, two terms named perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use indicate the attitude of the customers to accept the new technology which can impulse customers’ behavior, motive, and adoption of new technology (mohtar et al., 2013). in the study of (davis, 1989), authors have defined perceived usefulness as the degree to which a person believes that his or her job performance would be enhanced by using a particular system. so, the author used this factor "perceived usefulness" of the tam model to evaluate as telemedicine has enhanced their performance or provide access to the health care system. in the study of (davis, 1989), perceived ease of use is defined as the degree to which a person has a belief that they can use the system https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 8, no. 1; 2021 4 without any effort. in the study, the term “perceived ease of use” had been used to evaluate patients’ comfort and easiness while using the telemedicine service. methodology participants: the participants of the study were both female and male with a total number of 50. they are the participants of the telemedicine service program arranged by the maizbhanderi foundation. the program has been conducting since march 2020. the participants were psychiatric patients. table 1. participants according to gender and age data collection: data has been collected from the patients of the psychiatric department who have experience of the telemedicine service provided by the maizbhanderi foundation. a telephone questionnaire survey was conducted using 5 points likert scale data as 5-strongly agree to 1strongly disagree. the questionnaire was prepared according to some factors of the e-servqual and tam model. the sample size was 50. the procedure of data analysis: data has been analyzed using spss (statistical package for the social sciences) according to participants’ responses about the statements in the questionnaire. patients' overall perception has been shown by using charts using microsoft excel 2019. cronbach alpha has been done for checking the reliability among the statements in the questionnaire. spearman rank correlation has been conducted using ibm spss version 23 for checking the correlation of service qualities according to patients’ perception with their satisfaction level. the scale of the questionnaire: the questionnaire was designed by following a 5-point likert scale to know the opinion about their perception of service qualities of the telemedicine service and their satisfaction level with the service including future preference. proposed research framework: the research framework has been prepared based on the eservqual model and tam model. the service qualities such as information quality, responsiveness, empathy, and reliability are from the e-servqual model, and ease of use and perceived usefulness from the tam model which are being used as independent variables, and customers' satisfaction as the dependent variable. gender age in year total participants 10-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 f % male 1 8 5 7 1 22 44 female 4 2 9 7 6 28 56 total 5 10 14 14 7 50 100 1 2 3 4 5 strongly disagree disagree moderately agree agree strongly agree https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 8, no. 1; 2021 5 figure 1. proposed research framework results reliability test: cronbach alpha method has been used for checking the reliability among the statements in the questionnaire which is a measure of internal consistency. the co-efficient value of cronbach alpha has been found 0.87 which is considered very strong reliability among the statements in the questionnaire. patients' perception of the service qualities of telemedicine: for evaluating patients’ perception of telemedicine service qualities, the responses of the participants are analyzed by determining some service qualities like responsiveness, reliability, information quality, empathy, ease of use, and perceived usefulness. table 2. perception of patients about telemedicine service factors statements responses (%) 1 2 3 4 5 responsiveness employees of the telemedicine service provide me perfect schedule. 4 2 20 12 62 employees/doctors in the institution give me prompt service. 8 4 18 10 60 reliability when this institution promises to do something by a certain time, it does so. 4 4 14 28 50 when i face a problem, consultants/doctors/assistants show a sincere interest to solve the problem. 4 8 12 24 52 information quality the information (such as on-screen messages, and other documentation) provided was clear and easy to understand. 4 2 14 18 62 it was easy to find the information i needed. 0 2 22 16 60 empathy i have got individual care from this telemedicine service. 2 4 20 28 46 information quality responsiveness empathy reliability ease of use perceived usefulness customers’ satisfaction https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 8, no. 1; 2021 6 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% responsiveness reliability information quality empathy ease of use perceived usefulness patients' perception about service quality strongly agree agree moderately agree disagree strongly disagree in the light of the patients' perception and responses, it has been found that most of the patients have agreed with the above statements under the service qualities of telemedicine service. few have disagreed with the statements. the maximum number of patients have agreed that they have found the employees are responsive, reliable, have good information quality, ease of use, and perceived usefulness. figure 2. patients’ perception of service qualities this value shows the mean value for the statements according to the service qualities such as perceived usefulness, ease of use, empathy, information quality, reliability, responsiveness. about 83% of patients’ said that this telemedicine service is very useful. about 76% of the total patients agreed that it was easy to use the system. 76 % of the patients agreed that the employees and doctors showed empathy while providing telehealth service. around 78 % of the patients agreed that the information provided by the employees are clear and understandable. 77% of the patients said that the telemedicine service is reliable for them. and 73 % of the patients agreed that the employees are very responsive and sincere to them. the employees of service understand my specific needs. 2 4 16 28 50 ease of use it was simple & easy to use this system. 2 4 20 22 52 i believe the service will be beneficial for me. 4 0 16 32 48 i felt comfortable using this system. 0 2 24 30 44 perceived usefulness this telemedicine service improves my access to healthcare services. 4 2 16 26 52 this service saves me time traveling to a hospital or doctors’ chamber. 0 2 10 28 60 https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 8, no. 1; 2021 7 56% 20% 16% 4% 4% customers' satisfaction strongly agree agree moderately agree disagree strongly disagree customers’ satisfaction lastly, patients’ overall satisfaction was evaluated according to their responses. this factor was evaluated under the statements including overall satisfaction, the interest in using telemedicine in the future. figure 3. patients’ overall satisfaction in the light of the above chart, a total of 76 % are agreed that they are overall satisfied with the telemedicine service and they have preferred the service for the future also. only 8 % of the total patients are dissatisfied with the service. spearman rank correlation spearman rank correlation has been done for justifying the co-relation of the perception of the patients about the service qualities of telemedicine service with their satisfaction level. table 3. correlation of service qualities with patients’ satisfaction spearman rank correlation responsive ness reliability information quality empa thy ease of use perceived usefulness customer satisfaction responsiveness correlation coefficient 1.000 .735** .517** .632** .568** .525** .643** sig. (2tailed) . .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 n 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 reliability correlation coefficient .735** 1.000 .559** .711** .670** .631** .793** sig. (2tailed) .000 . .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 n 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 information quality correlation coefficient .517** .559** 1.000 .526** .341* .376** .544** sig. (2tailed) .000 .000 . .000 .015 .007 .000 n 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 8, no. 1; 2021 8 from table 3, it has been found that all the service qualities are positively correlated with customers’ satisfaction. the correlation between customers' satisfaction and responsiveness has a strong and positive correlation with the value of r is 0.643. reliability has a positive and strong correlation with customers’ satisfaction with the r-value 0.793. the information quality is moderately co-related with customers’ satisfaction having the value of r, 0.544. in light of the analysis, we can find the perception of the service qualities of telemedicine service has a strong and positive correlation with customers’ satisfaction. discussion due to the pandemic situation, the whole world is in turmoil (asgor, 2021). overall, in the new normal situation, the telemedicine service is an alternative healthcare service for the patients. information and communication technology (ict) has been accepted as one of the main driving forces behind organizational competitiveness in the present-day business environment (okon, 2018). it has enabled to provide telemedicine through e-platform. the service qualities of telemedicine were evaluated according to the perception and satisfaction of the patients. in the pandemic situation, telemedicine is an alternative and the best way for providing health care services to patients. in the light of the study, most of the patients are satisfied with the service provided by the maizbhanderi foundation. and also they have preferred the telemedicine service for the future. according to patients' responses and preferences, we can decide to run the service in the future. this study will be helpful to determine customers' satisfaction with the service qualities according to the proposed framework based on the e-servqual model and tam model. few limitations have been found while conducting the survey. as it was a telephone questionnaire survey, many of the participants did not pick up the phone and also some of them switched off their phones. that's why we conducted the participants which were more than our sample size for getting responses according to our exact sample size. few patients were dissatisfied with the telemedicine service. in the rural areas of bangladesh, many people are not aware of the usage of ict and also empathy correlation coefficient .632** .711** .526** 1.000 .478** .443** .677** sig. (2tailed) .000 .000 .000 . .000 .001 .000 n 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 ease of use correlation coefficient .568** .670** .341* .478** 1.000 .706** .784** sig. (2tailed) .000 .000 .015 .000 . .000 .000 n 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 perceived usefulness correlation coefficient .525** .631** .376** .443** .706** 1.000 .651** sig. (2tailed) .000 .000 .007 .001 .000 . .000 n 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 customers’ satisfaction correlation coefficient .643** .793** .544** .677** .784** .651** 1.000 sig. (2tailed) .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 . n 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 **. correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). *. correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed). https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 8, no. 1; 2021 9 telemedicine services. so, the study will be taking an approach to increase awareness about the telemedicine service. the persons who have the weakness to use the telemedicine service will be trained to use the service properly. according to the patients' perception, this service can be improved to make the patients satisfied. references akter, s. (2021). financial fitness of selected pharmaceuticals companies of bangladesh: a comparative assessment. american economic & social review, 7(1), 10-24. https://doi.org/10.46281/aesr.v7i1.1171 alam, m. s., ali, m. j., bhuiyan, a. b., solaiman, m., & rahman, m. a. (2020). the impact of covid -19 pandemic on the economic growth in bangladesh: a conceptual review. american economic & social review, 6(2), 1-12. https://doi.org/10.46281/aesr.v6i2.844 hoque, s. i., asgor, m. a., & islam, m. a. (2021). social awareness and creativity enhancement program through e-learning platform: a case of maizbhander foundation’s meddhabikash program, fatikchari, bangladesh. american economic & social review, 7(1), 1-9. https://doi.org/10.46281/aesr.v7i1.1030 ayesha, s., shafiq, m., & kakria, p. (2020). technology in society investigating acceptance of telemedicine services through an extended technology acceptance model ( tam ). technology in society, 60(march 2019), 101212. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2019.101212 baber, h. 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(2015). service quality measurements: a review. international journal of academic research in business and social sciences, 5(2), 267– 286. https://doi.org/10.6007/ijarbss/v5-i2/1484 gustke, s. s., balch, d. c., west, v. l., & rogers, l. o. (2000). patient satisfaction with telemedicine. telemedicine journal, 6(1), 5–13. https://doi.org/10.1089/107830200311806 https://doi.org/10.46281/aesr.v7i1.1030 https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 8, no. 1; 2021 10 haimi, m., brammli-greenberg, s., waisman, y., & baron-epel, o. 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(2018). female labour force, ict and growth nexus in nigeria. american economic & social review, 2(1), 33–41. https://doi.org/10.46281/aesr.v2i1.152 santos, j. (2003). e-service quality: a model of virtual service quality dimensions. managing service quality: an international journal, 13(3), 233–246. https://doi.org/10.1108/09604520310476490 sood, s., mbarika, v., jugoo, s., dookhy, r., doarn, c. r., prakash, n., & merrell, r. c. (2007). what is telemedicine? a collection of 104 peer-reviewed perspectives and theoretical underpinnings. telemedicine and e-health, 13(5), 573–590. https://doi.org/10.1089/tmj.2006.0073 tantarto, t., kusnadi, d., & sukandar, h. (2020). analysis of service quality towards patient satisfaction (comparative study of patients using telemedicine application and face to face consultation in healthcare). european journal of business and management research, 5(5). https://doi.org/10.24018/ejbmr.2020.5.5.516 copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. this is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0) american economic & social review vol. 7, no. 1; 2021 issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 published by cribfb, usa 10 financial fitness of selected pharmaceuticals companies of bangladesh: a comparative assessment sultana akter assistant professor department of business administration int'l islamic university chittagong, bangladesh e-mail: sa_maya@rocketmail.com abstract to understand the financial condition of a firm, it is mandated to evaluate the financial fitness of a firm, whether manufacturing, trading and service rendering etc. the main purpose of this research is to measure the financial fitness of leading pharmaceutical industries and listed on the stock exchange in bangladesh. this study employs a sample of seven companies from pharmaceutical industries in bangladesh where altman’s z-score model is used to assess the financial fitness of those companies by the prediction of whether they will go into bankruptcy within the next two years. by applying the model, it is revealed that square pharmaceuticals ltd, renata limited and ibn sina pharmaceutical limited are in a very good position with higher z-score. beacon pharmaceuticals limited and ambee pharmaceuticals limited are heading toward good scores. but aci limited and beximco pharmaceuticals limited are financially unhealthy and there is a possibility of going into bankruptcy in the near future. the finding of the study suggested the main reason for such a situation is that the performance of companies is differed by declining market value of shares, falling total asset turnover, inadequate proportion of ebit to total assets and insufficient liquid assets etc. keywords: financial fitness, altman z-score, bankruptcy, pharmaceutical company. jel classification codes: g33, g53, m10. introduction bangladesh is one of the least developed countries which meets about 98% of its demand for pharmaceutical products. it has a market size of nearly bdt 200 billion. bangladeshi pharmaceutical products are exported to 147 countries. this industry contributes about 1.85% of total gdp. the industry has undergone remarkable transformations in recent years, and it is now the most successful manufacturing industry in the country (faisal, 2019). the industry is growing due to the increase in per capita income of the people, their hectic daily activities, an aging population, changing lifestyles and economic status, unhealthy eating habits, increasing incidence of chronic diseases etc. which provide industry players an opportunity to grow. bangladesh’s pharmaceuticals market size will reach more than bdt 400 billion by 2023 (niti, 2019). square pharmaceuticals ltd (2020) started its business in 1958 and after 33 years of establishment it was changed into a public limited company in 1991. in 1995, it was listed on stock exchanges. it has a market share of 16.95% and a turnover of bdt 50.87 billion. square pharmaceuticals limited exports medicines from bangladesh to 42 countries. the objective of the company is to conduct transparent business operations within a legal and social framework. it has exported pharmaceutical products since 1995 and provides quality products. it also offers service for https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 7, no. 1; 2021 11 product development and provides assistance in product promotion. renata limited (2020), one of the fastest growing and foremost pharmaceutical companies in bangladesh, was established in 1972 as pfizer (bangladesh) limited. it was listed on the dhaka stock exchange. it has a market capitalization of approximately taka 87 billion. the company exports its products to many countries around the globe. the company focuses on long-term growth and goes the extra mile for employees. caring for employees, assisting disadvantaged members and building a sustainable environment is the main corporate social responsibility of the company. beacon pharmaceuticals limited (2020) opened its business in 2006 with the aim of delivering and developing innovative and life-saving medicines to fight various life-threatening diseases. it was listed on the dhaka and chittagong stock exchanges. it has a premium infrastructure & framework designed by european engineers. the ibn sina pharmaceutical industry ltd (2020) was established with modern art and technology in 1983 in gazipur. the company is outfitted with high-quality machinery and has established itself as a leader in the pharmaceutical industry in bangladesh. it has two manufacturing segments like pharmaceutical and organic or herbal medicine manufacturing plant. highest quality medicines at an affordable price are the primary objective of ibn sina. the advanced chemical industries ltd (aci) is one of bangladesh's largest companies, having been founded on january 24, 1973.it has four business segments such as aci agribusiness, aci retail chain, aci consumers brands, and aci pharmaceuticals. aci pharmaceuticals is excited about combining knowledge, expertise, and modern technology to lead a quality health care system in bangladesh (aci ltd., 2020). ambee pharmaceuticals limited (2020) was established in 1976. it was incorporated on 4th february 1976. it is registered under the companies act 1913 as a public limited company. it has got its own distribution network throughout the country and a quality management system is followed to ensure consistent quality. they meet all national regulatory requirements and follow good manufacturing practices (gmp) in their business as recommended by the world health organization. beximco pharmaceuticals ltd (beximco pharma) was established in 1976 and commenced its operations in 1980. it is a public limited company listed on the dhaka stock exchange. it is headquartered in dhanmondi. the mission of the company is to enhance human health and well-being by providing affordable and contemporary medicine. the core values of the company are commitment to quality, customer satisfaction, people focus, accountability and corporate social responsibility (beximco pharma, 2020). based on the foregoing, it is high time to assess and scrutinize the performance of pharmaceutical companies. but performance evaluation is a dynamic matter rather than static as performance has changes yearly, monthly, daily, even within a moment (majumder & rahman, 2011). this study is undertaken to evaluate the performance of some selected listed pharmaceutical companies in bangladesh. this will provide insight into the company's financial situation and position in comparison. the use of a model to assess the financial condition of the company will assist management in taking corrective measures in the future, potentially reducing bankruptcy. it will even help creditors, shareholders and regulatory agencies to a great extent. many studies have been undertaken in the past and among them, edward altman’s z-score is the most popular z-score is a multi-discriminate analysis. while doing the review of literature on this area, it was found that a few studies have been done using z-score in bangladesh. that’s why this study emphases on analyzing the financial fitness of selected pharmaceutical companies which are listed on the dhaka stock exchange in bangladesh (ray, 2011). literature review a lot of research has gone into studying and scrutinizing the financial fitness of companies by researchers in different parts of the world. the literature in this study mostly involves research depending on the published work existing in bangladesh as well as abroad. a study used the z-score model to analyze the financial health of five indian pharmaceutical companies over the course of 11 years. this model revealed that ranbaxy lab ltd. and glaxosmithkline pharmaceuticals ltd. were https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 7, no. 1; 2021 12 in good financial health, while the other three companies needed to focus on improving financial performance, particularly in terms of sales revenue generation and asset utilization in the future (panda & behera, 2015). akbar conducted a study to predict financial health conditions on stock returns using the panel data regression method for seven indonesian stock exchange companies. the results showed that there is a decrease in financial ratios in each company and this has implications for the decline in the financial distress model (akbar et al., 2019). another study used edward i altman’s z-score model on selected indian pharmaceutical companies for the period of 10 years. statistical tools and financial techniques are used to analyze a company’s financial health performance and decide that there are no chances of any bankruptcy in the near future as all are in a safe or healthy zone (geethalakshmi & jothi,2017). nsiah conducted a study to compare two pharmaceutical companies listed on the ghana stock exchange based on the profitability, liquidity, solvency and probability of that company. it was found that the efficiency of aryton is declining in the case of management in utilizing the assets, but starwin is improving in this case. by using altman’s z-score, it was also shown that aryton was not in financial distress but starwin was in financial distress and likely to be bankrupt in the near future (nsiah & aidoo, 2015). a study on an industrial firm and used altman zscores and ratio analysis approaches to predict the firm’s insolvency for the period of 2002-2004. the z-score from the analysis was less than 1.81 (z-score < 1.81 which means the firm has increased its debt and will be facing bankruptcy in the near future (al-rawi et al., 2018). mizan et al. (2011) has selected six leading pharmaceutical companies of bangladesh listed on the dse. they have used altman z-score to predict, analyze and compare the financial soundness. the values of z-score and other financial trend analysis of the rest of the companies are found to be unsatisfactory and they have a significant likelihood of facing financial distress in the near future. ahmed and hasan (2019) used ratio analysis of three pharmaceutical companies in bangladesh. data has been collected from the annual financial reports of beximco, renata and square pharmaceutical companies from 2006 to 2010 and found that the financial position and operational performance of the selected pharmaceuticals are not satisfactory. jannatunnesa (2016) attempted to analyze the financial consistency and the profitability determinants of pharmaceutical companies in bangladesh. altman's z-score model was used for measuring the financial soundness of the pharmaceutical industry. it also examined the profitability determinants by testing a number of hypotheses. the results show that the insolvency possibility of almost every company is very high. the industry also has a high possibility of bankruptcy within the next two years. dakhwani and nayak (2017) focused on the financial position of selected companies of pharmaceutical industry in india on the basis of 10 years of data collected from financial statements of respective companies using altman’s z-score model. according to their analysis, some companies are found to be in the bankruptcy zone, whereas some are in a healthy zone and some have become bankrupt. al ali (2018) examined the financial soundness of the two healthcare companies listed on the kuwait stock exchange. the results showed that both companies are positioned in the gray area, which means that they are facing bankruptcy risk. mizan and hossain (2014) found on a sample of five cement companies, found that two firms, heidelberg cement and confidence cement of bangladesh, are financially sound whereas the other three are not in a good position. research questions & objectives of the study based on the foregoing discussion, two research questions for this study have been identified: ▪ what is the financial position of the pharmaceutical industry in bangladesh? ▪ how financial distress among the selected companies is measured using altman z-score ratios? the ultimate objectives of the study are to get the answer to research questions as follows: ▪ to assess the financial situation of sample pharmaceuticals companies of bangladesh ▪ to measure financial fitness by means of altman’s z-score formula and compare the financial distress among selected pharmaceutical companies. https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 7, no. 1; 2021 13 ▪ to highlight some findings and to recommend some measures regarding the financial position of selected companies. rational of the study determining the financial health of a firm is a very important corporate skill. it is important to know how the company is performing its business for a number of reasons. it is important to have a clear picture of the financial health of a company to make more effective strategic decisions about the organization’s resource allocation and its direction. it also plays a significant role in attracting investors or for seeking finance. the study can provide assistance to companies in evaluating their financial efficiency. it can also help investors in analyzing their investment decisions. management can find out the financial problems and take steps for more effective and efficient utilization of resources. it will be helpful to investors in taking the decision to invest in specified companies. methodology data collection to conduct the study, secondary data has been gathered from the yearly reports of selected pharmaceutical companies from the year 2015-2019. the position of the company is analyzed based on various elements of ratio analysis. to predict the financial distress of the companies using ratio analysis, the altman’s z-score model is used (altman’s z-score model, 2020). population & sample bangladesh's own-grown pharmaceutical industry has met approximately 98% of the demand for pharmaceutical products. the industry is growing due to the increase in per capita income of the people, their hectic daily activities, aged population, change in lives and economic status, unconscious eating behaviors, growing rate of chronic diseases etc. which provides industry players an opportunity to grow there are a number of pharmaceutical businesses, about 50 plus operating in bangladesh. among them, around 32 companies are listed on the dhaka stock exchange under the pharmaceutical and chemicals industry. among all the listed pharmaceutical companies on the stock exchange, samples of seven companies were selected to conduct this study. the sample pharmaceutical companies of this study are given below: ▪ square pharmaceuticals ltd ▪ reneta limited ▪ beacon pharmaceuticals limited ▪ the ibn sina pharmaceutical industry ltd ▪ aci limited ▪ ambee pharmaceuticals ltd ▪ beximco pharmaceuticals ltd method of data processing altman’s z-score model was published by edward i. altman in 1968 to predict the bankruptcy of a business. the formula may be used to forecast the possibility of a company going into bankruptcy within the next two years. this model quantifies a company's financial fitness by using multiple corporate income and balance sheet values. the model was originally used by publicly held manufacturers and later it was used in private manufacturing, non-manufacturing and service companies. the model proved to be accurate for predicting bankruptcy on various occasions. the model has improved and has become a reliable predictor of bankruptcy. the study is undertaken by using the altman’s z-score formula. the formula consists of five key financial ratios: x1, x2, x3, x4 and x5. these are independent variables which are computed and substituted in the formula to derive the z-score of each company. after the derivation of the z-score, https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 7, no. 1; 2021 14 the values are compared to the benchmark set by the model to determine whether a company is in a safe, grey or distress zone. on the basis of analysis, it is found whether a company will be bankrupt in the near future. lastly, the values of the z-score of each company are compared with the average z-score of each company to give a comparative analysis of the company’s performance. the formula is used as follows: z = 1.2 x1 + 1.4 x2 +3.3 x3+ 0.6 x4 + 1.0 x5 where: x1= working capital/ total assets. x2= retained earnings /total assets. x3=earnings before interest and taxes/total assets. x4= market value of equity/ book value of total liabilities. x5= sales/ total assets. the results obtained from the model are then compared to a benchmark that is set to determine the financial soundness of the company. the criteria used to interpret the z-score model are: zones of discrimination score zone description z > 2.99 safety do not go for bankruptcy within next two years 1.80 < z < 2.99 grey reasonable chance to go for bankruptcy within next two years z < 1.80 distress/bankruptcy certainty goes for bankruptcy within two years. analysis & findings altman z-score for square pharmaceuticals ltd. table 1. computation of z-score for square pharmaceuticals ltd. variable/year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 mean x1=net working capital/total assets 0.2325 0.3694 0.4100 0.4063 0.5430 0.3922 x2=retained earnings/total assets 0.6405 0.6880 0.6912 0.6925 0.7442 0.6913 x3=ebit/total assets 0.2579 0.2273 0.1785 0.1448 0.1725 0.1962 x4=market value of equity/ total liabilities 43.1798 46.3080 43.6190 32.4179 49.0082 42.9066 x5=sales/total assets 1.1543 0.8580 0.7277 0.6483 0.6854 0.8147 z-score 29.16 30.79 28.95 22.03 32.35 28.6560 table 1. shows the average of x1, x2, x3, x4 and x5 are 0.3922, 0.6913, 0.1962, 42.9066 and 0.8147 respectively. now, the average z-score for square pharmaceuticals ltd. can be calculated as z = 1.2 x1 + 1.4 x2 +3.3 x3+ 0.6 x4 + 1.0 x5 the z-score for square pharmaceuticals ltd. will be 28.6560 https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 7, no. 1; 2021 15 figure 1. graphical view of z-score of square pharmaceuticals ltd the above graph shows that the z-score of square pharmaceuticals ltd has increased in 2016 and decreased during 2017 and 2018. then it has increased to the highest in 2019. the results of z score in each study period is above 2.99, which means the company is in a safe zone and the financial performance of the company is very good, which indicates that the firm is not likely to go into bankruptcy in the future. altman z-score for renata limited table 2. computation of z-score for renata limited variable/year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 mean x1=net working capital/total assets 0.0518 0.1148 0.1832 0.2596 0.3182 0.1855 x2=retained earnings/total assets 0.5199 0.5876 0.6449 0.6827 0.7149 0.6300 x3=ebit/total assets 0.1951 0.2168 0.2249 0.2212 0.2231 0.21622 x4=market value of equity/ total liabilities 9.6988 10.0945 12.4718 15.9724 16.3560 12.9187 x5=sales/total assets 0.7982 0.8473 0.8852 0.8942 0.9174 0.8685 z-score 8.05 8.58 10.23 12.47 12.85 10.4360 figure 2. graphical view of z-score of renata limited 29.16 30.79 28.95 22.03 32.35 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 z-score z-score 8.05 8.58 10.23 12.47 12.85 0 5 10 15 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 z-score z-score https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 7, no. 1; 2021 16 the above graph shows that the z-score has been increased throughout the study period. the result of z-score in each study period is above 2.99. the company is in a safe zone, which means the financial performance of the company is very good, which indicates that there is no possibility for the firm to go into bankruptcy in the near future. altman z-score for beacon pharmaceuticals limited table 3. computation of z-score for beacon pharmaceuticals limited variable/year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 mean x1=net working capital/total assets 0.3006 0.2817 0.2520 0.2175 0.2774 0.2658 x2=retained earnings/total assets 0.0618 0.0737 0.0738 0.0828 0.0830 0.0750 x3=ebit/total assets 0.0602 0.0527 0.0523 0.0549 0.0622 0.05646 x4=market value of equity/ total liabilities 1.8530 1.9857 2.6514 2.1554 2.4543 2.2110 x5=sales/total assets 0.4332 0,4970 0.5775 0.7662 0.9540 0.6827 z-score 2.19 2.30 2.75 2.62 3.09 2.59 figure 3. graphical presentation of z-score of beacon pharmaceuticals limited according to the figure 3, the results of beacon pharmaceuticals limited's z score value from 2015 to 2018 accounting years are between 1.8 and 2.99, indicating that it is in the grey zone of 1.8 to 2.99. but from the next financial year it has increased, which indicates that the firm is not likely to go into bankruptcy in the future. measures should be taken to increase the ratios of x1, x2, x3, x4 and x5 in 2019. altman z-score the ibn sina pharmaceutical industry ltd table 4. computation of z-score the ibn sina pharmaceutical industry ltd variable/year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 mean x1=net working capital/total assets -0.0619 -0.0770 -0.0385 -0.0830 -0.0637 -0.06482 x2=retained earnings/total assets 0.2216 0.2200 0.2566 0.3845 0.4107 0.29868 x3=ebit/total assets 0.1432 0.1613 0.1548 0.1662 0.1728 0.15966 x4=market value of equity/ total liabilities 2.8823 6.0595 6.0971 6.0196 6.1114 5.43398 x5=sales/total assets 1.9573 2.0167 1.8605 1.9074 1.8612 1.92062 z-score 4.40 6.40 6.34 6.71 6.60 6.09 2.19 2.3 2.75 2.62 3.09 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 z-score z-score https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 7, no. 1; 2021 17 figure 4. graphical view of z-score of the ibn sina pharmaceutical industry ltd the above graph shows that the results of z score in each study period is above 2.99, which means the financial performance of the company is good, which indicates that the firm is not likely to go into bankruptcy in the future. altman z-score for aci limited table 5. computation of z-score for aci limited variable/year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 mean x1=net working capital/total assets 0.2279 0.2161 0.1385 0.0701 0.0791 0.14634 x2=retained earnings/total assets 0.3950 0.3728 0.3243 0.2766 0.2367 0.3211 x3=ebit/total assets 0.0832 0.0342 0.0588 0.0470 0.0399 0.0526 x4=market value of equity/ total liabilities 3.2166 2.1778 1.7701 0.8112 0.5035 1.6958 x5=sales/total assets 0.7525 0.3762 0.6766 0.5993 0.5238 0.5857 z-score 3.78 2.58 2.55 1.71 1.38 2.4 figure 5. graphical presentation of z-score of aci limited from figures, it is found that analysis reveals that z scores have been declining from 3.78 (2015) to 1.38 (2019) for aci limited. although the z score value was greater than 2.99 in 2015, it indicated that aci limited was in a safe zone with a good financial position, but the company entered the grey zone (z 2.99) in 2016 and 2017 by decreasing the z score values from 3.78 to 2.58 and 2.55.the company has reached the bankruptcy zone (z 1.8) with z scores of 1.71 and 1.38 respectively 4.4 6.4 6.34 6.7 6.6 0 2 4 6 8 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 z-score z-score 3.78 2.58 2.55 1.71 1.38 0 1 2 3 4 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 z-score z-score https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 7, no. 1; 2021 18 in the next two years, 2018 and 2019.the more poor z score indicates that the firm’s performance became poorer due to the decline of total assets, market value of shares, ebit and liquid assets in terms of total assets and total liabilities during the period of study. it can be predicted from the declining z scores that the company is going to be bankrupt in the near future. altman z-score for ambee pharmaceuticals ltd table 6. computation of z-score for ambee pharmaceuticals ltd variable/year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 mean x1=net working capital/total assets 0.0411 -0.0674 -0.0960 -0.0924 -0.1039 -0.0637 x2=retained earnings/total assets 0.0668 0.0721 0.0696 0.0732 0.0712 0.0706 x3=ebit/total assets 0.0567 0.0853 0.0652 0.0440 0.0539 0.0610 x4=market value of equity/ total liabilities 1.7966 1.9129 2.4921 3.7170 4.0875 2.8012 x5=sales/total assets 0.7882 1.2128 0.7791 0.7871 0.7971 0.8729 z-score 2.20 2.66 2.47 3.15 3.40 2.776 figure 6. graphical view of z-score of ambee pharmaceuticals ltd from figure 6, the results of z score value of ambee pharmaceuticals ltd from 2015-2017 is below 2.99, which indicates that it is entered in the grey zone (1.8 < z2.99). but from the next financial years it has increased and moved to a safe zone, which indicates that the firm is not likely to go into bankruptcy in the future. altman z-score for beximco pharmaceuticals ltd table 7. computation of z-score for beximco pharmaceuticals ltd variable/year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 mean x1=net working capital/total assets 0.1109 0.1780 0.1680 0.0532 0.0105 0.1041 x2=retained earnings/total assets 0.3276 0.3440 0.3688 0.3340 0.3484 0.3446 x3=ebit/total assets 0.0925 0.1431 0.1012 0.0921 0.1029 0.1064 x4=market value of equity/ total liabilities 3.8870 4.1862 5.0854 2.3220 1.7540 3.4470 x5=sales/total assets 0.4205 0.6432 0.4550 0.4051 0.4636 0.4775 z-score 3.65 4.32 4.56 2.63 2.36 3.504 2.2 2.66 2.47 3.15 3.4 0 1 2 3 4 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 z-score z-score https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 7, no. 1; 2021 19 figure 7. graphical presentation of z-score of beximco pharmaceuticals ltd the results of z-score value of beximco pharmaceuticals ltd shows that the company is in the safe zone during 2015, 2016 and 2017 as the score is above 2.99. but from 2018-2019 the score is below 2.99, which indicates that it is in a grey zone of 1.8 to 2.99, which indicates that the firm is in a moderate zone of bankruptcy and steps must be taken before it goes to bankruptcy in the future. comparative analysis table 8. summary of company’s ranking based on activities and ratios square pharmaceuticals ltd is ranked first on net working capital to total asset ratio, retained earnings to total asset ratio and market value of equity to total liabilities. it is ranked second on ebit to total assets and fourth on sales to asset ratio. the performance of the company is good and can increase its sales for holding best position. renata ltd is ranked first on ebit to total asset, second on retained earnings to total assets and market value to total liabilities. it has ranked third on net working to total assets and sales to total assets ratio. the company is performing well. beacon pharmaceuticals ltd is ranked second on net working capital to total asset, fifth on sales to total assets ratio. it has ranked sixth on retained earnings to total asset ratio ebit to total asset and market value of equity to total liabilities. the company is not performing well. the ibn sina pharmaceuticals ltd is ranked first on sales to total assets ratio, third on ebit to total asset and market value of equity to total liabilities. it is ranked fifth on retained earnings to total asset ratio and seventh on net working capital to total asset ratio. the company has to work on its retained earnings and net working capital policy. aci ltd is ranked fourth on net working capital to total asset ratio and retained earnings to total asset ratio square pharmaceuticals ltd is ranked first on net working capital to total asset ratio, retained earnings to total asset ratio and market value of equity to total liabilities. it is ranked second on ebit to total assets and fourth on sales to asset ratio. the performance of the company is good and can increase its sales to hold the best position. renata ltd is ranked first on ebit to total assets, second on retained earnings to total assets and market value to total liabilities. it has ranked third on net working to total assets and sales to total assets ratio. the company is performing well. company’s indicators square pharmaceuticals ltd reneta ltd beacon pharmaceuticals ltd the ibn sina pharmaceutical industry ltd aci ltd ambee pharmace uticals ltd beximco pharmace uticals ltd avg. of x1 1 3 2 7 4 6 5 avg. of x2 1 2 6 5 4 7 3 avg. of x3 2 1 6 3 7 5 4 avg. of x4 1 2 6 3 7 5 4 avg. of x5 4 3 5 1 6 2 7 3.65 4.32 4.56 2.63 2.36 0 1 2 3 4 5 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 z-score z-score https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 7, no. 1; 2021 20 beacon pharmaceuticals ltd is ranked second on net working capital to total assets, fifth on sales to total assets ratio. it has ranked sixth on retained earnings to total asset ratio ebit to total assets and market value of equity to total liabilities. the company is not performing well. ibn sina pharmaceuticals ltd is ranked first on sales to total assets ratio, third on ebit to total assets and market value of equity to total liabilities. it is ranked fifth on retained earnings to total asset ratio and seventh on net working capital to total asset ratio. the company has to work on its retained earnings and net working capital policy. aci ltd is ranked fourth on net working capital to total asset ratio and retained earnings to total asset ratio. it is ranked sixth on sales to total assets ratio, seventh on ebit to total assets and market value of equity to total liabilities. the performance of the company is poor. ambee pharmaceuticals ltd is ranked second on sales to total assets ratio, fifth on ebit to total asset and market value of equity to total liabilities, sixth on net working capital to total asset ratio and seventh on retained earnings to total asset ratio. the performance has to be improved. beximco pharmaceuticals ltd is ranked third on retained earnings to total asset ratio. it is ranked fourth on ebit to total assets and market value of equity to total liabilities, fifth on net working capital to total asset ratio and seventh on sales to total assets ratio. from table 8, it is clear that square pharmaceuticals ltd tops the list among all other companies. renata ltd is performing well but unable to perform at the same pace. table 9. company’s z-score at a glance company/year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 average square pharmaceuticals ltd 29.16 30.79 28.95 22.03 32.35 28.66 reneta limited 8.05 8.58 10.23 12.47 12.85 10.44 beacon pharmaceuticals limited 2.19 2.30 2.75 2.62 3.09 2.59 the ibn sina pharmaceutical industry ltd 4.40 6.40 6.34 6.71 6.60 6.09 aci limited 3.78 2.58 2.55 1.71 1.38 2.40 ambee pharmaceuticals ltd 2.20 2.66 2.47 3.15 3.40 2.78 beximco pharmaceuticals ltd 3.65 4.32 4.56 2.63 2.36 3.50 figure 8. graphical presentation of average z-score of the companies 28.66 10.44 2.59 6.09 2.4 2.78 3.5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 average z-score of selected company average z-score https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 7, no. 1; 2021 21 the above graph shows that the z-score value of square pharmaceuticals ltd is above average in all the years except in 2018, which is 22.03. renata limited and ambee pharmaceuticals ltd’s z-score values were low from 2015-2017 and then they have increased above average for the next two years. the z-score value of beacon pharmaceuticals limited is low from 2015-2018 and it has increased above average in 2019, which is 3.09. the ibn sina pharmaceutical industry ltd had a low value of 4.40 in 2015 and it stood above average for the last four years. aci limited and beximco pharmaceuticals ltd’s z-score value stood above the average for the first three years and then it started declining. overall, square pharmaceutical limited has higher z-score values than other companies, which indicates that the company is in a very good position. renata limited and the ibn sina pharmaceutical industry ltd also have higher scores than other companies, which indicate a good position for investment. result & conclusion summary of findings ▪ z-score of square pharmaceuticals ltd has increased in 2016 and decreased during 2017 and 2018. then it has increased to the highest in 2019. the results of z-score in each study period are above 2.99. ▪ z-score of renata limited has increased throughout the study period. the result of z-score in each study period is above 2.99 ▪ the results of z-score value of beacon pharmaceuticals limited from 2015-2018 is below 2.99, which indicates that it is in the grey zone of 1.8 to 2.99. but from the next financial year it has increased. ▪ the results of z-score of the ibn sina pharmaceutical industry ltd in each study period are above 2.99. ▪ the analysis of aci reveals that z scores varied between 3.78 (2015) to 1.38 (2019). in 2015, the company was in the safety zone (z > 2.99) and from 2017 onwards the company is in the grey zone (z < 2.99) except in 2018 and 2019. ▪ the results of z-score value of ambee pharmaceuticals ltd from 2015-2017 is below 2.99, which indicates that it is in the grey zone of 1.8 to 2.99. but from the next financial years it has increased. ▪ the results of z-score value of beximco pharmaceuticals ltd shows that the company is in the safe zone during 2015, 2016 and 2017 as the score is above 2.99. but from 2018-2019 the score is below 2.99, which indicates that it is in the grey zone of 1.8 to 2.99. ▪ the z-score value of square pharmaceuticals ltd is above average in all the years except in 2018, which is 22.03. renata limited and ambee pharmaceuticals ltd’s z-score values were low from 2015-2017 and then they have increased above average for the next two years. the z-score value of beacon pharmaceuticals limited is low from 2015-2018 and it has increased above average in 2019, which is 3.09. the ibn sina pharmaceuticals industry ltd had a low value of 4.40 in 2015 and it stood above average for the last four years. ▪ overall, square pharmaceuticals limited has higher z-score values than other companies and tops the lists in all aspects, which indicates that the company is in a very good position. renata limited and the ibn sina pharmaceuticals industry ltd also have higher scores than other companies, which indicate a good position for investment. recommendations & conclusion from the above study, it has been seen that square pharmaceuticals ltd, renata limited and the ibn sina pharmaceuticals limited hold a very good position with the highest score, which is above 2.99. beacon pharmaceuticals limited was in the grey zone from 2015 to 2018 and only moved to the safe zone in 2019, indicating that the firm expects to be risky. ambee pharmaceuticals limited https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 7, no. 1; 2021 22 shows improvement year by year. beximco pharmaceuticals limited remains a grey zone that increases the chance of bankruptcy, so measures must be taken to increase its overall performance. aci limited has a very poor z-score and headed the company to the bankruptcy zone. the company has a higher chance of going bankrupt in the future. proper measures must be taken to improve the condition of the distressed companies. management must give a close look at the various indicators used in the test in order to bring succession to the company. for each selected company, some suggestions are provided below. ▪ beacon pharmaceuticals limited has been in the grey zone for the majority of the years, so it must improve sales revenue, which will improve ebit in the future, and thus the company's z-score. the company should also take care of its market price of shares to increase the z-score and must look at its working capital and try to increase its current assets. ▪ the ibn sina pharmaceuticals must focus on its sales to hold the position. ▪ aci limited has a very poor score, so it must increase the market value of its share. there must be an adequate proportion of ebit to total assets. the company must increase its liquid assets in order to increase net working capital and retained earnings must be increased in order to increase its z-score. ▪ ambee pharmaceuticals limited was in the grey zone for the first three years, so it must work on its working capital policy. it must make more contribution to its retained earnings. ▪ beximco pharmaceuticals ltd must increase its liquid assets and increase its sales through new drug development. ▪ all companies must utilize their assets properly and must have realistic goals and efficient management. there must be sufficient research and development on the products. the companies must hire skilled manpower. ▪ measures must be taken to overcome power disruption and trouble with machinery. there must be sufficient availability of raw materials and the number of shares must also be increased. bangladesh is one of the least developed countries which meets up to 98% of its demand for pharmaceutical products. it has a market size of nearly bdt 200 billion. bangladeshi pharmaceutical products are exported to 147 countries. this industry contributes about 1.85% of total gdp. the industry has undergone remarkable transformations in recent years, and it is now the most successful manufacturing industry in the country. references aci limited. (august 10, 2020). company profile. retrieve from https://www.aci-bd.com/aboutus/company-profile.html ahmmed, m., & hassan, r. (2019). performance evaluation of some selected pharmaceutical companies in bangladesh a comparative analysis. retrieve from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/335826987_performance_evaluation_of_some_sele cted_pharmaceutical_companies_in_bangladesh_-_a_comparative_analysis akbar, b. m. b., achsani, n. a., & maulana, t. n. a. (2019). financial distress of pharmaceutical companies in indonesia. international journal of finance and banking research, 5(6), 174-179. al ali, m. s. 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(2011). assessing corporate financial distress in automobile industry of india: an https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/about-cfi/ https://www.ambeepharma.com/company_profile https://www.beaconpharma.com.bd/about-us/ https://beximcopharma.com/about.html https://www.arx.cfa/~/media/2a85f9b2ceab43cfaf325ab54f3ef404 https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 7, no. 1; 2021 24 application of altman’s model. research journal of finance and accounting, 2(3). renata limited. (august 5, 2020). about us. retrieve from https://renata-ltd.com/about-us/ square pharmaceuticals ltd. bangladesh. (august 3, 2020). about us. retrieve from http://www.squarepharma.com.bd/about-us.php the ibn sina pharmaceutical industry ltd. (august 6, 2020). company overview. retrieve from http://www.ibnsinapharma.com/about/company-overview/ copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. this is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) http://www.squarepharma.com.bd/about-us.php http://www.ibnsinapharma.com/about/company-overview/ copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr american economic & social review; vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 published by centre for research on islamic banking & finance and business, usa 38 socio-demographic predictors of perceived burden of care among care givers of non-mentally and mentally retarded students in ibadan, nigeria olaseni abayomi oladele ph.d department of pure and applied psychology adekunle ajasin university, akungba, nigeria tel: +234(0)8033539662 e-mail: contactolaseni@gmail.com okhakhume aide sylvester ph.d department of psychology university of ibadan, ibadan, nigeria tel: 234(0)8023708826 e-mail: okhasly2004@yahoo.com abstract the care of mentally retarded children is often stressful experiences for family members, as the child grows up and disability becomes quite noticeable by others, parents face a very distressing predicament of social embarrassment and stigma, they require more attention and time while at the same time the need for special equipment, and medical care increases; implicating financial income and capability of the care providers. the aftermath effect on the care provider(s) most often is restrictive and disruptive to economic, social or emotional deficiency. the study examines the influence of socio-demographic variables on care burden of care providers of non-mentally and mentally retarded students in ibadan metropolis. the study adopted cross sectional research design across types of job, social support, religion, ethnicity and age. a total number of 100 care providers participated in the study (50 care providers of non-mentally retarded students & 50 care providers of the mentally retarded students). the instruments that were used was care givers burden scale developed by zarit et al (1980). the result of the study revealed that demographic variables (age, sex, marital status, education level, job type, religion and ethnicity) do not jointly predict burden of care among care providers of mentally retarded students in ibadan metropolis. [f(7,43)=1.722;p>.05], but revealed that demographic variables jointly predict burden of care among care providers of non-mentally retarded students in ibadan metropolis. [f(7,43)=2.39;p<.05], and finally revealed that social support had significant influence on burden of care among care providers of mentally retarded students in ibadan metropolis [t(98)= 11.13; p<.05]. the study therefore concludes that demographic variables jointly predict burden of care among care providers of non-mentally retarded students not mentally retarded students. while social support was found to significantly influence burden of care among care providers of mentally retarded students in ibadan metropolis. keywords: demographic factors, social support, burden of care, mentally retarded 1. background the birth and continuing care by parents of children with mental retardation experience high level of emotional, financial and physical stress (byrne & cunningham, 1985). there are multiple problems of having a mentally retarded child in the family. the problems are mainly related to the social ridicule and social stigma. as the child grows up and disability becomes quite noticeable by others, parents face a very distressing predicament of social embarrassment and stigma. this may lead to isolation of the child even within the family the child may be restricted from coming out when relatives and friends visit the house or may be left back at home when parent go out. cernic and greenberg (1985) found that the cumulative impact of daily parenting hassles and difficulty in dealing with children represent significant stressors that may subsequently affect parents and family conditioning. consequently, parents of the retarded children have been viewed as being at risk for a variety of family life problems and emotional difficulties. copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 39 in addition, families often face increased financial burdens while children require special equipment, medical care, and programming and at the same time; family income may be reduced because caregiving responsibilities make it difficult for two parents to work outside the home. an added area of concern for some families is difficulty managing family relations (featherstone, 1980). roles within the family may need to be restructured and the resulting strain may manifest itself in family problems, including high rates of dissertation, divorce, family quarrelling and marital breakdown; establishing and maintain satisfying social networks (kazak & marvin, 1984). relationships with professionals also may be source of added stress (turnbull, 1986); establishing and maintain satisfying social networks (kazak & marvin, 1984). relationships with professionals also may be a source of added stress (turnbull, 1986) as parents face difficulties in their efforts to secure adequate services for their child or obtain information about their child’s disability. parents undergo chronic sorrow which is periodic in nature, precipitated by child’s deviants from normal performance. the intensity of reaction was related to the particular developmental stage and the individual coping strengths of the family (wilker et al; 1981). feelings of depression are common, particularly when realization of the child’s retardation is recent. some mothers react to the retarded child as if he had died and manifest the typical grief reaction associated with the loss of a loved one. socio-demographic factors are found associated with the burden of caregiving across studies. the factors that tend to be consistently associated with higher levels of burden across studies include lower educational attainment in the caregivers (zahid et al, 2010; caqueo-urízar et al, 2006), and poor social support (ohaeri et al, 2001). care providers of children with developmental disabilities expressed a high level of overall burden, particularly in financial domains, greater subjective caregiver burden, increased disability – related costs; maternal factors such as being younger and having higher educational attainment; and less social support. extra cost related to disabilities was the strongest predictor of increased caregiver burden and the social support can reduce the burden (heykyung et al., 2009). as the child grows the families are trying to accept the child and one study also found that older caregivers mobilize their families to acquire and accept the child and experienced significantly less personal burden than others. it also concluded that younger caregivers are more predisposed toward seeking outside help and have higher expectations of the service system. care providers of children with mental retardation adopt different types of coping strategies to overcome their problems. denial, rehearsal of outcome, finding a purpose and seeking emotional support were the commonly utilized coping styles by the mothers of mentally handicapped children. social support is broad term encompassing a variety of constructs, including support perceptions (perceived support) and receipt of supportive behaviours (received support). the recent studies report no difference between mothers and fathers in terms of their social isolation. evidence exists that in some instances families of children without disabilities may have larger and less dense social networks than families of children who are disabled (fredrich & fredrich, 1981) both attributes indicative of less adequate support. some studies found that the presence of social support significantly predicts the individual’s ability to cope with stress and it was knowing that they are valued by others is an important psychological factor in helping them to forget the negative aspects of their lives, and thinking more positively about their environment. it also found that social support not only helps improve a person’s well-being, it affects the immune system as well. thus, it also a major factor in preventing negative symptoms such as depression and anxiety from developing (corey, 2005). studies found that both hardiness and social support were predictive of successful adaptation. reduction in the quality of care by the care givers can set in conditions of overdependence on the care providers by the mental retards can result into frustration and over-burdens which in turn will lead to transfer of aggression and confrontation. these conditions can affect the survival and existence of the mental retards. another problem is the affections of the care providers on the mental retarded individuals. the way the care providers feels about their jobs and the mentally retarded goes a long way in either functioning well or be frustrated and transferring aggression on the mental retard who do not know or are aware of their dependence on the care givers. if the care givers are frustrated, the frustration can result to irrational thinking or behaviours which will determine the action and reaction of the care giver on the mental retards. the quality of care enjoyed by the mentally retarded can be increase or decrease depending on the efficiency of social support the care givers enjoy. 2. study objectives  to determine if age, sex, marital status, educational achievement, job type, religion, and ethnicity independently and jointly determine burden of care among care givers of non-mentally retarded students.  to determine if age, sex, marital status, educational achievement, job type, religion, and ethnicity independently and jointly determine burden of care among care givers of mentally retarded students.  to examine the influence of social support on burden of care among care givers of mentally retarded students. copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 40 3. conceptual framework 4. research hypotheses  to determine if age, sex, marital status, educational achievement, job type, religion, and ethnicity independently and jointly determine burden of care among care givers of non-mentally retarded students.  to determine if age, sex, marital status, educational achievement, job type, religion, and ethnicity independently and jointly determine burden of care among care givers of mentally retarded students.  to examine the influence of social support on burden of care among care givers of mentally retarded students. 5. method 5.1 design the study adopted cross sectional research design. in essence to assess and integrates various areas and scopes to the research concepts; such as care providers of non-mentally retarded students and care providers of mentally retarded students, across types of job, religion, ethnicity and age. data collection involves both quantitative methods in collection of information. 5.2 sample and sampling size a total number of 100 care providers participated in the study (50 care providers of non-mentally retarded students & 50 care providers of the mentally retarded students). the caregivers are drawn from three (3) schools for special students (chesire home, eleyele, united school, ijokodo and ijokodo school of the disabled) and three (3) schools for non-mentally retarded schools in ibadan (richmab international school, ring road, sunshine kiddies college, okebola, and mercy international school, joyceb road ring road). 5.3 instruments the instruments that were used was berlin social support scale developed by ralf schwarzer & ute schulz and care givers burden scale developed by zarit et al (1980).the questionnaire comprised of the following sections; the measurement of socio-demographic information of the participants involves; age, marital status, educational level, job type, religion and ethnicity. sex was be reported as male (a) and female (b); the age range of the participants were 25yrs to 50yrs , the marital status includes married, single, divorced, separated, and others to be specified; the educational level includes primary school certificate, ssce, nd/nce, bsc/hnd, m.sc/mba, and others to be specified; the job type includes nurse, doctor, teachers and others to be specified; the religion includes christianity, islam and others to be specified; the ethnicity included yoruba, igbo, hausa, and others to be specified. the caregivers burden scale is a likert format scale of 22 items of which the caregivers where made to respond to how they felt in general towards what they are going through because of their ward. the response format ranges from nearly always (4) to never (0). age sex job type religion ethnicity marital status educational achievement social support independent variables dependent variable social factors care giver’s burden demographic factors copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 41 the social support scale contained seventeen (17) items cutting across the aspects of the perceived emotional support of the caregivers, perceived instrumental support, need for support, and support seeking. the caregivers were made to think of persons close to them and to rate how the person has treated them in the past few week. it is based on a (4) point likert scale. the responses ranges from (1) strongly agree (2) somewhat disagree (3) somewhat agree (4) strongly agree. 5.4 procedure proposal was submitted to ethical committee of the schools for ethical approval to conduct the study with the target population. an introductory letter was drafted and distributed to the heads of the respected schools and care providers of both mentally retarded students and non-mentally retarded students to introduce the researcher and research purpose. the questionnaire and informed consent was translated to yoruba; for the sake of the participants in target schools who are illiterates therefore cannot read in english language. the questionnaires were then administered among the consenting participants only. questionnaire was self-administered to over 100 care givers of both care givers of mentally retarded persons and normal persons. in addition, data collected will be analyzed using spss package version 17 for statistical sophistication. 5.5 statistical analysis hypotheses 1 and 2 were analyzed using standard multiple regression analysis to examine how the demographic variables independently and dependently predict burden of care providers while, hypothesis 3 was analyzed using t-test of independent to compare differences between two groups on the dependent variable. 6. results the results of the analyses are presented in tables 1, 2 and 3. hypothesis 1 age, sex, marital status, educational achievement, job type, religion, and ethnicity will significantly and jointly determine burden of care among care givers of non-mentally retarded students in ibadan. table 1: multiple regression analyses showing demographic variables as predictors of burden of care among care providers of mentally retarded students in ibadan. predictors  t sig. r2 ▲r2 f p age -.45 -.91 -.03* sex .02 .60 .56 marital status .16 1.90 .17 education achievement .08 1.42 .17 .22 .09 1.72 > .05 job type .04 -.03 .54 religion -.02 -.13 .40 ethnicity -.09 -.61 .50 *denotes significance at p <0.05 the result in table 1 revealed that demographic variables (age, sex, marital status, education level, job type, religion and ethnicity) do not jointly predict burden of care among care providers of mentally retarded students in ibadan metropolis. [f(7,43) = 1.722; p > .05]. however, the result of the independent prediction indicate that age independently predicts burden of care among care providers of mentally retarded students in ibadan metropolis ( = 0.45, t = −0.91, p < .05), this implies that age independently accounted for about 45% variance in burden of care experienced by care providers of mentally retarded students in ibadan metropolis, however, sex (𝛽 = 0.03; 𝑝. 𝑛𝑠), marital status (𝛽 = 0.16; 𝑝. 𝑛𝑠) education level (𝛽 = 0.08; 𝑝. 𝑛𝑠), job type (𝛽 = −0.04; 𝑝. 𝑛𝑠), religion (𝛽 = −0.02; 𝑝. 𝑛𝑠) and ethnicity (𝛽 = −0.09; 𝑝. 𝑛𝑠) did not significant and independent predict burden of care. hypothesis one is therefore rejected. hypothesis 2 age, sex, marital status, educational achievement, job type, religion, and ethnicity will significantly and jointly determine burden of care among care givers of mentally retarded students in ibadan. copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 42 table 2: multiple regression analyses showing demographic variables as predictors of burden of care among care providers of non-mentally retarded students in ibadan predictors  t sig. r2 ▲r2 f p age -.01 -.05 .33 sex -.14 -.99 .53 marital status .45 2.91 .01 education achievement -.03 -.21 .14 .30* .18* 2.39* < .05 job type .06 .41 .42 religion -.18 -1.27 .43 ethnicity -.04 -.30 .12 *denotes significance at p <0.05 the result in table 2 revealed that demographic variables (age, sex, marital status, education level, job type, religion and ethnicity) jointly predict burden of care among care providers of non-mentally retarded students in ibadan metropolis. [f(7,43) = 2.39; p < .05]. this implies that demographic variables of care providers of non-mentally retarded students jointly accounted for 30% variance observed by care providers of non-mentally retarded students in ibadan metropolis. however, the results of the independent prediction indicate that marital status independently predicts burden of care among care providers of non-mentally retarded students in ibadan metropolis. marital status( = 0.45, t = 2.91, p < .05), this implies that marital status independently accounted for about 45% variance observed in burden of care among care providers of non-mentally retarded students in ibadan metropolis. however, age (𝛽 = −0.01; 𝑝. 𝑛𝑠), sex (𝛽 = −0.14; 𝑝. 𝑛𝑠), education level (𝛽 = −0.03; 𝑝. 𝑛𝑠), job type (𝛽 = 0.06; 𝑝. 𝑛𝑠), religion (𝛽 = −0.18; 𝑝. 𝑛𝑠) and ethnicity (𝛽 = −0.04; 𝑝. 𝑛𝑠) do not significant independent predict burden of care among care providers of non-mentally retarded students in ibadan metropolis. hypothesis two is therefore accepted hypothesis 3 social support will have significant influence on burden of care among care providers of mentally retarded students in ibadan. table 3: t-test of independent showing the influence of social support on burden of care among care providers of mentally retarded students in ibadan. social support n m sd df t p low 52 41.54 12.27 burden of care 98 11.13 < .05 high 45 16.09 09.89 the results of the test as shown in table 3 indicated that social support had significant influence on burden of care among care providers of mentally retarded students in ibadan metropolis [𝑡(98) = 11.13; 𝑃 < .05]. the result implies that there is significant difference in the social support of participants on the burden of care experienced by care providers of mentally retarded students in ibadan metropolis sampled. however, care providers of mentally retarded students with low social support experienced more burden of care (m = 41.54; sd = 12.27) than care providers of mentally retarded students with high social support (m = 16.09; sd = 09.89). hypothesis three is therefore accepted. 7. discussion the outcome of the study revealed that demographic variables (age, sex, marital status, education level, job type, religion and ethnicity) do not jointly predict burden of care among care providers of mentally retarded students in ibadan metropolis. however, the result of the independent prediction indicate that age plays a significant roles in enabling burden of care among care providers of mentally retarded students in ibadan metropolis, this implies that age independently accounted for about 45% variance in burden of care experienced by care providers of mentally retarded students in ibadan metropolis, however, sex, marital status, education level, job type, religion and ethnicity did not play significant role predicting burden of care. the study was not in support with the findings of zahid et al, (2010) that revealed that socio-demographic factors are strongly related the burden of caregiving. the study further revealed that demographic variables (age, sex, marital status, education level, job type, religion and ethnicity) jointly predict burden of care among care providers of non-mentally retarded students in ibadan metropolis. this implies that demographic variables of care providers of non-mentally retarded students jointly accounted for 30% variance copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 43 observed by care providers of non-mentally retarded students in ibadan metropolis. however, the results of the independent prediction indicate that marital status independently plays significant role in the burden of care among care providers of nonmentally retarded students in ibadan metropolis. however, age, sex, education level, job type, religion and ethnicity do not play significant role on burden of care experienced by care providers of non-mentally retarded students in ibadan metropolis. the study was in support with the findings of caqueo-urízar et al, (2006) that revealed that socio-demographic factors are strongly related the burden of caregiving. it shows that the social support programme has significant influence on the burden of care among care providers of retarded persons. this result is related to the study of kennet, burgio, & schulz, (2000) that shows there is also a significant influence of social support on burden of care. the similar findings by heykyung et al., (2009) conducted a study on caregiver burden and social support among mothers raising children with developmental disabilities in south korea. they found that respondents expressed a high level of overall burden, particularly in financial domains. 8. conclusion the study purpose was to examine the influence of socio-demographic variables on burden of care among non-mentally and mentally retarded students’ care providers in ibadan metropolis. the study therefore concludes that demographic variables (age, sex, marital status, education level, job type, religion and ethnicity) do not jointly predict burden of care among care providers of mentally retarded students in ibadan metropolis, while it was also concluded that demographic variables (age, sex, marital status, education level, job type, religion and ethnicity) jointly predict burden of care among care providers of non-mentally retarded students in ibadan metropolis. and finally, the study concluded that social support plays significant roles in either in alleviating or strengthening of burden of care among care providers. this implies that, care providers with high social support feel less burden of care than care providers with low social support. 9. recommendation the members of the family of the mentally retarded students and the community at large should take conscious steps and act to acknowledge that the quality and quantity of their social support does not only produce direct positive impact to the retarded but alleviate the burden of care of the care givers. schools and government are also call on to encourage the provision of social support package by funding provision of social facilities that can enhance the programme in order to boost the reduction of stress and burden of care givers and retarded individual and also enact policy that will lighten the workload of employees whom are car givers to mentally retarded children and adult. 10. conflict of interest authors declare no conflict of interest. references beckman, p. (1991). comparison of mothers' and fathers' perceptions of the effect of young children with and without disabilities. american journal on mental retardation, 95, 585-595. byrne, e., & cunningham, c. (1985). the effects of mentally handicapped children on families-a conceptual review. journal of child psychology and psychiatry, 26, 847-864. caqueo-urízar & j. gutiérrez-maldonado. (2006). burden of care in families of patients with schizophrenia,quality of life research, 15(4),719–724 corey m. clark. (2005) “relation between social support and physical health”. rochester institute of technology. featherstone, h. (1980). a difference in the family: living with disabled child. new york, basic books. friedrich, w., & friedrich, n. (1981). psychological assets of parents of handicapped and nonhandicapped children. american journal of mental deficiency, 85, 551-553. heykyung oh, et,al, (2009) care giver burden and social support among mother rising children with developmental disability in south korea. international journal of disability, development and education, 56, 149-167. kazak, a.e., & wilcox, b.l. (1984). the structure and function of social support networks in families with handicapped children. american journal of community psychology, 12, 645-661. mary e hayden and tamar heller (1997) support, problem-solving/coping ability, and personal burden of younger and older caregivers of adults with mental retardation. mental retardation,35(5),364-372. mc andrew, i. (1976). children with a handicap and their families. child: care, health and development, 2, 213-237. ohaeri, j.u.(2001). caregiver burden and psychotic patients' perception of social support in a nigerian setting,” social psychiatry and psychiatric epidemiology, 36(2),86–93. copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 44 turnbull, a., summers, j., & brotherson, m. (1986). family life cycle: theoretical and empirical implications and future directions for families with mentally retarded members. in j. j. gallagher & p. m. vietze (eds.), families of handicapped persons: research,programs, and policy issues. baltimore: paul h. brookes wikler l, wason m and halfied e. (1981) .chronic sorrow revisited. parent vs professional deception of the adjustment of parents of mentally retarded children, americian journal of orthopsychiatry, 51-63. zahid m.a., & j. u. (2010) .ohaeri.relationship of family caregiver burden with quality of care and psychopathology in a sample of arab subjects with schizophrenia, bmc psychiatry,10(71). copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. this is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr american economic & social review; vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 published by centre for research on islamic banking & finance and business, usa 24 social media as predictor of job search skills among undergraduates of obafemi awolowo university, ile-ife, osun state, nigeria agun tolulope francisca department of educational foundations and counselling obafemi awolowo university, ile-ife, nigeria atoyebi adeola olusegun department of educational foundations and counselling obafemi awolowo university, ile-ife, nigeria e-mail: adeola671@gmail.com abstract the study investigated the level of job search skills among undergraduates of obafemi awolowo university, ile-ife osun state and determined the predictive ability social media on job search skills. it examined the influence of the social media on job search skills of undergraduates of the university, further, it investigated the influence of demographic variables (sex, age and level) and area of specialisation on job search skills of the undergraduate students. these were with a view to providing information on the factor that could improve the job search skills of o.a.u undergraduate students.the study adopted a descriptive survey research design. the population for the study comprised 26,000 undergraduates of the obafemi awolowo university, ile-ife, osun state as at 2016/2017 academic session. the study sample comprised 496 students were selected using a multi-stage sampling procedure. out of the thirteen faculties, four faculties were selected using simple random sampling technique. four departments were selected from each of the selected faculties using simple random sampling technique. purposive sampling technique was used to select graduating students (parts 4 or 5) from each of the faculties selected. one hundred and twenty-five undergraduates were selected from each faculty, using convenience sampling technique. an instrument titled “social media of job search skills” was adapted from existing standardised instruments and used to collect data. data collected were analysed using percentage, frequency counts, mean, standard deviation, linear regression, and ordinal logistic regression.the result showed that 21.4%, 55.6% and 23.0% of undergraduates of obafemi awolowo university students demonstrated low, moderate and high levels of job search skills respectively. also, the predictive ability of social media showed that social media (0.323, p< 0.000) had a significant influence on students’ job search skills. the study concluded that social media could improve the job search skills among undergraduates of oau. keywords: job search skills, social media. 1. introduction during the past years, the nigerian economy has suffered downfalls and the rates of unemployment have been increasing, result being a difficulty to find a job after graduation. it has become difficult to find jobs in any specific field for graduates. basically, a university degree or equivalent is no more a passport to get a job. traditionally, the tertiary institutions have been aiming to prepare students for different positions in the field of work; so that after graduation, these students will start looking and applying for jobs that match their educational background. job search skills are those abilities that predispose individuals to ease of job placement; to search and secure a job; one has to possess job search skills. also, some skills are attained by attending schools, industrial attachments or training programmes but others can be acquired through experiential learning on the job. some undergraduates acquired their job search skills from different professional bodies like the institute of chartered accountants of nigeria (ican), association of national accountants of nigeria (anan), nigeria institute of management (nim), chartered institute of personnel management in nigeria (cipm) and business education examination council (beec) which could determine their level of confidence in searching and getting job. from the researcher interaction with students, it is assumed that not every graduating student is likely to possess job search skills and they may not have the same degree of confidence in their ability to find work, which may influence their job search skills. several job search skills are fairly broad which includes good communication, word processing, and problem-solving skills. depending on the type of work at hand, for instance, a construction worker needs a unique set of abilities different from lawyers, doctors, or teachers. different job employers set out the skills required for a particular job, and job seekers also typically list their relevant qualifications in their application materials which may include the ability to listen well, to take and apply instructions, use of a phone, computer literacy, e–mail skills and to maintain focus for long periods of time, which are critical to copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 25 success in almost every workplace. most of the time, these categories of skills were assumed that employers expect employees to exhibit these categories of skills, even if they do not ever say so directly. outdated school curricula and lack of employable skills were identified by okafor (2011) as a causal factor of youth unemployment in nigeria. hence, the argument of some scholars and observers is that, as far as the formal sector is concerned, the average nigerian graduate is not employable because there are no adequate jobs in nigeria. and that the graduates do not possess the skills needed by the employers of labour for a formal employment. employers thus resort to a series of job examinations, aptitude tests and interviews after interviews to sieve out an employable graduate amidst the unemployed graduated youths. despite that nigeria is in a situation of economic collapse; if nigeria gets better graduates; they would be able to use the job search skills acquired from the university to search for a job and get empolyed at the end of the day. the course contents or curricula of some tertiary education in nigeria lack adequate entrepreneurial contents and job search skills (such as specific skills, necessary skills and sufficient skills) that would have enabled graduates to become job creators rather than job seekers. lack of these job search skills makes it difficult for most of the undergraduates to secure a job after graduation. also, job advertisements and openings typically presume a basic level of proficiency when it comes to the basic skills needed to carry out the job. undergraduates seeking job can learn many things once they have started, but they usually need to have at least a specific foundation from which to begin. listing a relevant internship on a job application is a great way to demonstrate needed skills. for instance, undergraduates’ market place. several industries offer university students the opportunity to work as interns, usually on a part-time basis, in order to test out a certain career path. interns are not generally paid full salaries but usually receive stipends, so they work primarily for the experience and the best place to showcase skills is on curriculum vitae. undergraduates, who have particularly notable or unusual skills such as foreign language fluency, often list these in a special relevant skills section on their curriculum vitae. this is generally reserved for skills that will help the applicant stand out from the crowd where listing basic aptitudes is not usually necessary. in most cases, employees’ job skills grow over time. social media is the use of internet means to get connected with recent and needed information on job opening from friends and others.. it is not certain if undergraduates of obafemi awolowo university (oau) possess a similar level of job search skills. social media as a sociological factor influences job search among undergraduates which quickly becomes an absolute necessity to successfully apply to major corporations, and especially modern types of business such as web companies and application developers. social media is the medium through which people, like graduates, undergraduates, and uneducated people share, hear and link up to a job advert. some students visit the internet often and make use of the adverts on the television channels, radio stations, and newspaper as a mode of applying or searching for a vacancy in government and private firms. it is necessary to examine how they engage with the social media tools that support networks in online environments in relation to job search. arising from the present study, it is pertinent to investigate and provide information on the job search skills that students need, and the level of skills required which may vary depending on the type of job and the company they want to work with. graduating students searching for a job are expected to be able to plan and organise effectively. hence, it is important to study social media if it could predict job search skills among undergraduates of oau so that there would be no mismatch of skills while searching for a job in order to reduce the rate of unemployment in nigeria. besides, it would be valuable to associate social media with job search skills measures, to see if there will be a significant influence on students’ job search skills among obafemi awolwo university undergraduates. 1.1 purpose of the study the main purpose of the study is to examine the level of job search skills and social media among undergraduates of obafemi awolowo university, ile-ife. the specific objectives of the study are to:  investigate the level of job search skills of undergraduates of obafemi awolowo university, ile-ife;  determine the predictive ability of social media on job search skills of undergraduates in the study area  examine the influence of the social media on job search skills of undergraduates of the university 1.2 research questions the following research questions were raised to achieve the purpose of the study:  what is the level of job search skills among undergraduates of obafemi awolowo university?  what is the predictive ability of social media on job search skills of undergraduates in the study area? 1.3 research hypotheses the following hypothesis was postulated  social media has no significant influence on job search skills of oau undergraduates. copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 26 2. methodology the study adopted the descriptive survey research design. it entails the process of collection of data from a representative sample of the population to possibly determine the effect of one variable on the other. the descriptive survey design was used for the study because the research is concerned with the collection of data for the purpose of describing and interpreting the social media as a predictor of job search skills among undergraduates of obafemi awolowo university ile-ife, osun state, nigeria. in this study, social media as a predictor represented the independent variables while job search skills represent the dependent variable. job search skills were measured using job search skills scale to establish the level of job search skills and social media was also measured using social media questionnaire. since all university undergraduates cannot be reached, the study had to be conducted using samples of undergraduates of obafemi awolowo university ile-ife, osun state in which the results obtained from this was used to generalise for the entire population. the population for the study comprised 26,382 undergraduates of obafemi awolowo university (oau), ile-ife as at 2016/2017. the population of the male is 15,404 representing 58.4% of the population while 10,978 representing 41.6% of the population are females. the instruments were validated with the help of experts in tests and measurement and psychology of education at obafemi awolowo university, ile-ife. kaiser-olkin measure of sampling adequacy (kmo) and bartlett’s test of sphericity (bts) were carried out to ascertain the usability of factorial validation for the validation of the items in each section of the questionnaire and each item yielded uniform data. the kaiser-meyer-olkin measure of sampling adequacy (kmo) value for job search skills and social media media were 0.642 and 0.621 respectively which is greater than critical value at 0.05 level of significance and so is acceptable. the cronbach’s alpha approach was adopted in determining the reliability of the scale and it yielded a coefficient of 0.852 and 0.895. 3. results research question 1: what is the level of job search skills among undergraduate of obafemi awolowo university? to answer this question, items in section b with a four-point likert scale "strongly agree with strongly disagree were scored 1 through 4 respectively for each statement. on the scale, a minimum and maximum scores obtained were 18 and 36 respectively with a mean and standard deviation ( = 29.01, sd = 3.37). in the study, scores that ranged between the minimum obtained score and the mean minus one standard deviation (18-26) indicated low job search skills, while scores that were higher than the mean minus one standard deviation but less than the mean plus one standard deviation (27-31) indicated that the students were having average job search skills and scores that ranged from the mean plus one standard deviation and the maximum obtained score (32-36) indicated that the students were having high job searching skills. the result is as presented in table 1. table 1. descriptive statistics showing the level of job search skills of participant levels of job search skills n % low 106 21.4 average 276 55.6 high 114 23.0 total 496 100.0 from table 1, it was observed that only 21.4% of sampled obafemi awolowo university students have low job search skill, while 55.6% of the sampled students have average job search skills when compared with others and 23.0% have high job search skills. research question 2: what is the predictive ability of social media on job search skills? to answer this question, regression analysis was carried out on the available data using the data for job search skills as dependent variable and social media as the independent variable. the result is as presented in table 2 table 2. the predictive ability of social media on job search skills r = 0.487 r2 = 0.237 adj r2 = 0.230 f = 30.395* unstandardised coefficients standardised coefficients t sig. b std. error beta copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 27 (constant) 9.241 1.633 5.659 .000 social media score .348 .062 .231 5.646 .000 a. dependent variable: students job search skill scores the model summary as presented in table 2 showed the multiple r and coefficient of determination (r2) for the regression model. the r 2 = 0.237 indicated that 23.7% of the variance in students’ job search skill score can be explained by the regression model. the significant f-value (f = 30.395, p< 0.05) as observed in the table indicated that the model predicted the outcome accurately. table 2 also showed the constant or intercept term and the regression coefficients (β) for independent variable. the constant value (9.241) represents the intercept, which is the predicted job search skill not accounted for by the independent variable. the unstandardised beta values ( β = 0.348) social media showed that there is a significant predicted increase 34.8% in students' job search skill respectively. however, for every unit increase in peer influence, there is a nonsignificant increase of 1.8% in students' job search skill. the regression equation therefore is "students job search skills = 9.241 +0.237, 0.348(social media). hypothesis 1: social media has no significant influence on job search skills of undergraduates to test this hypothesis, ordinal logistic regression was carried out with job search skills having three categories (low, average and high) as the dependent variable and social media score as the independent variable. the result is presented in table. table 3. parameter estimates showing the influence of social media on job search skills of undergraduates estimate std. error wald df sig. 95% confidence interval lower bound upper bound threshold [skill = 1.00] 3.709 .676 30.10 3 1 .005 2.384 5.034 [skill = 2.00] 6.471 .724 79.82 1 1 .005 5.052 7.891 location social media .323 .043 55.41 9 1 .005 .238 .408 link function: logit. in table above, the estimate column showed the coefficient for the independent variable to be 0.323 which means that there is a positive influence of social media on job search skills. that is a unit increase in social media use brings about a significant increase in the students' job search skill at p = 0.000. thus, it could be inferred that social media has a significant influence on job search skill. 4. discussion of findings the result of the present study shows that the majority of oau undergraduates possessed a moderate level of job search skills which may help them to be able to search and secure a job after graduation from the university. this finding is similar to jaquiline (2013) which asserted that undergradutes intentions to join their careers were highly determined by their level of occupational knowledge and social influence. greenberger (2002) stated that the environment plays a significant role in the career position the student attains in many ways. the environment that is spoken about here is a factor that is used to nurture the job search skills. attieku (2005) asserted the level of the individual's educational attainment also counts while searching for a job. it is true that one who enrolls and studies in a medical school will become a medical doctor and one who attends the school of journalism is likely to be a journalist. from this study, it could be seen that students possessed different levels of job search skills from this study, it could be seen that students possessed different levels of job search skills and this is not in line with the assertion of (vansteenkiste, 2005) that, there might be other reasons for the failure to find a positive relation between job searching and expectancy. vansteenkiste (2005) observed that, unemployed people who are confident about finding a job might (temporarily) give priority to alternative activities in their lives, before looking for a new job. secondly, people’s high expectations might be due to the fact that there are many jobs available in the job market; and therefore one does not have to engage in a frequent search for them. third, unemployed people with high expectations of finding a job might be so confident about finding a job that they do not see any reason to start their job search. confident people might believe that they have the necessary skills and competencies that will get them a job when they begin their search, whereas people with low confidence of copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 28 finding a job might believe that they lack some of the required skills and competencies and therefore search harder. the present study in line with previous research by vinokur & schul, (1997) observed that the more confident undergraduates and unemployed people search for job in the near future, the less they experienced their lives as meaningless and empty, the less they felt abandoned and socially isolated, and the higher were their reported mental health scores. also, the study showed that students in their final academic year had greater career capabilities (jameson & holden, 2000) suggest that if students are not concerned with their employment in the last year of study, their passiveness could result in stressful periods when they graduate. during this time individual could be vulnerable and they may feel disoriented and unduly affected by any career plans proposed by potential employers, while they display passiveness in their career attitudes, resulting in a job below their qualification. it was also discovered from the study that social media could predict job search skills of undergraduates of obafemi awolowo university, ile-ife. according to hypothesis four, there was a positive influence of social media on job search skills. and this is in line with mcdonald & crew (2006) who also reported a positive association between the number of internet job search strategies (i.e., reading online job advertisements or searching online job listings, submitting an application to an employer online, researching information about potential employers, and posting a resume on a job listing site or a service online) and five out of six of the job quality indicators defined in the study. the indicators that were positively related to job search intensity were a log of hourly wages, pension, healthcare, and health care for children and training (no significant association was found with full-time employment). in relation to offline search, the analysis suggested no association between its intensity in terms of a number of strategies employed and job quality. the findings of this study also corresponded with the conclusion of kuhn & skuterud (2000) that internet use (social media) can be associated with the increased use of certain job search methods. while kuhn and skuterud were able to confirm this relationship only in relation to sending out cvs, filling in job applications and ‘other search methods’, stevenson’s study (2008) also indicated an increase in other methods (such as looking for advertisements and contacting private employment agencies) due to increased internet penetration. it was noted from this study that social media also influences job search skills among undergraduates. from the use of social media, students may be listening to radio adverts, browsing various search engines, applying for job online and watching television adverts on how to search and secure job after graduation from the university and this could be possible through the acquisition of job search skills during undergraduate days. finally, it is therefore noteworthy that self-esteem had the strongest influence on students’ job search skills. from the study, it was discovered that the student who make use of social media and who is able to control himself/herself tends to possess job search skills before leaving the university and will be able to search and secure a job after graduation. 5. conclusion the present study established that majority of undergraduates possessed a moderate level of job search skills. the predictive ability of social media on students' job search skills is significant. it was also concluded that social media could predict job search skills among undergraduates of oau.. even though undergraduates have good knowledge of job search skills but there is still need for improvement with the help of social media usage. 6. recommendations based on the conclusion of this study, these recommendations are proposed to further enhance job search skills which will help students to get a job after graduation from the university. there recommendations are given subsequently. there should be efforts by school counselling unit of the tertiary institutions to improve and develop the level of job search skills of undergraduates. all teachers should be equipped with counselling skills by the nigeria education service to enable them involve in career guidance activities of the school. the view that career education and guidance are often considered being the sole responsibility of the specialist career guidance staff, rather than the joint responsibility of all members of the teaching staff has to be discarded. it is also necessary to motivate graduating students in the process of job searching so as to reduce the continuous increase in the current rate of unemployment. counsellors and lecturers should create sensitization on how to help undergraduates to develop curriculum vitae, cover letters, learn about job openings, how to prepare for job interview, registering with some consultancy organisations who provide job alerts and how to use social media tools while searching for a job. undergraduates should make realistic commitments to their academic pursuits in other to know how to avoid mismatch of skills needed in a specific job so that they will not become employed and underemployed after university graduation. undergraduates should have good knowledge of how social media could influence their job search outcomes. government as a matter of urgency has to enter into partnership with ngo’s and other donor agencies to raise adequate fund to create job opportunities in the country to solve problem of inadequate jobs reported by the guidance and counselling coordinators because there is good knowledge of job search skills by undergraduates to secure job. government should also create enabling copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 29 environment to encourage the private sector to create jobs to have lasting solution to unemployment problems. school counsellors should organise periodic career seminars for undergraduates on how to develop the use of social media and these could enhance job search skills. references attieku, b., dorkey, t., marfo-yiadom, e., & tekyi, k. (2006). business management-gabet series (1st ed.), cape coast: nyakow printing press. greenberger, m. (2002). nation’s high schools still operate “separate and unequal” thousand oaks, ca: sage. jaquiline, a. (2013). social influence and occupational knowledge as predictors of career choice intentions among undergraduate students in tanzania. international journal of learning and development, 3(3). jameson, s., & holden, r. (2000). “graduateness” – who cares? graduate identity in small hospitality firms. journal of education and training, 42(4), 264-271. mcdonald, s., & crew, r. e. (2006). welfare to web to work: internet job searching among former welfare clients in florida. journal of sociology & social welfare. 33(1), 239-253. okafor, e. e. (2011). youth unemployment and implications for stability of democracy in nigeria. jsda, vol.13, no. 1. retrieved from http://www.jsdafrica.com/jsda/v13no1_spring2011. stevenson, b. (2008). the internet and job search, national bureau of economic research inc, nber working papers: 13886. vansteenkiste, m., lens, w., de witte, h., & feather, n. (2005). understanding unemployed people’s job-search behaviour, unemployment experience and wellbeing: a comparison of expectancy-value theory and self-determination theory. british journal of social psychology, 44, 1–20. vinokur, a., & schull, r. d. (1997). attitudes and social support: determinants of job-seeking behaviour and well-being among the unemployed. journal of applied social psychology, 17, 1007–1024. copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. this is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) american economic & social review vol. 8, no. 1; 2021 issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 published by cribfb, usa 22 the higher education financing based on islamic shariah: an unconventional approach of student loan nor effuandy pfordten department of accounting, finance and muamalat faculty of business and accountancy university selangor, shah alam, malaysia e-mail: pfordten@unisel.edu.my md. jafor ali faculty of business administration islamic university kusthia, bangladesh e-mail: jaforkb@gmail.com norhaila bt. sabli centre of professional and business development faculty of business and accountancy university selangor, shah alam, malaysia e-mail: norhayla@unisel.edu.my md. kamal uddin faculty of business administration islamic university kusthia, bangladesh e-mail: uddinkamal1983.ku@gmail.com abul bashar bhuiyan department of accounting, finance and muamalat faculty of business and accountancy university selangor, malaysia e-mail: bashariuk@gmail.com abstract quality higher education transforms human life into meaningful human resources. moreover, it brings qualitative changes in humankind and socioeconomic development with the help of extended knowledge and higher skills. but, most of the traditional student loan mechanisms are based on interest (riba) therefore, many devout muslims are struggling with traditional student financing, as interest (riba) is impermissible in islamic shariah. this study aims to analyze student financing concepts based on shariah perspective and to evaluate the shariah issues that are associated to its application. the present qualitative study adopts mostly relied primary and secondary sources of islamic shariah such as quran, hadith, islamic jurisprudence, and islamic scholars’ views. the deliberations evolve at reviewing on the shariah concept of qard-al-hassan, qard-bil-ujrah, waqf (islamic trust bank), and takaful. finally, the present study highlights that the higher education mailto:pfordten@unisel.edu.my mailto:jaforkb@gmail.com mailto:norhayla@unisel.edu.my mailto:uddinkamal1983.ku@gmail.com mailto:bashariuk@gmail.com https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 8, no. 1; 2021 23 financing based on the shariah concept could also be generalized into education financing that would be interest(riba) free and acceptable to the muslim community at large. keywords: education financing, shariah based financing, qard al hassan, qard bil ujrah, waqf, and takaful. introduction investment in quality higher education is socially and economically productive investment (blom & canton, 2004; psacharopoulos, 1986) as it promotes acquiring extended knowledge, skills, and intelligence (chaiwut, rueangsirarak, & chaisricharoen, 2018). more importantly, the quality higher education is improving knowledge level for discovering, generating, and apprehending, capturing, sharing, and motivating students for promoting their personal and collective development (natek & lesjak, 2011; simon, małgorzata, & beatriz, 2007). since the education is opening the horizon of individually life-changing opportunities and socially cost-effective returns, so the enrollments of higher education level students are increasing significantly throughout the world and so as to the costs do. thus, the higher education loan is deliberated as an important student financing mechanism due to budgetary austerity and dwindling natural resources (baum, 2016; psacharopoulos, 1986; ziderman, 2002). however, mounting costs and demands coupled with dwindling national resources lead to cost-sharing among government, students, parents, and households and finally developed a dominant mechanism of subsidized higher education loan over the seventy countries around the world (johnstone & shroff-mehta, 2003; salmi, 2003). besides the cost sharing, initiation of education loan involves other influences such as enhancing accessibility of needy students can collect the funds to pay for education (ziderman, 2013); human capital development (avery & turner, 2012; becker, 1975; li, 2013; mueller & rockerbie, 2004); financial sustainability of higher education institutions (mussa, 2015; ziderman, 2013). in the conventional student loan processes, eligible applicants can apply up to a certain amount of money for their tuition and maintenance costs. successful applicants must gradually repay the loan along with predetermined interest after they graduated and secured jobs with the income above a particular threshold. the traditional student loan mechanism is mostly interest based. but interest (riba) is completely impermissible in islamic shariah. thus, potential, underprivileged, and devoted muslim students are unable to take the traditional student financing due to interest (riba) issue. as a result underprivileged muslim youths cannot attend in the quality higher education so they are retreating from the mainstream of the society. moreover, higher interest rate on the conventional student financing is creating enormous delinquency problems. in this case, apart from the conventional student loan, the shariah compliant student financing can resolve the issues and communal interest in line with the guidance of quran, hadith (sunnah), al fiqh or islamic jurisprudence. the present endeavor aims to conceptualize shariah based financing concept and its application of qard al hassan (benevolent loan), qard bil ujrah (fee or charges of services), waqf (islamic trust bank), and takaful (cooperative or solidarity based mutual guarantee) in higher education financing. literature review in the philosophy of islamic economics and finance the generous role of qard al hassan, qard bil ujrah, waqf (islamic trust bank), and takaful initiatives are invariably and empathically emphasized. apart from the interest based student loan which is oppressive and unjust to the humankind, the interst free islamic student financing modes such as qard al hassan, qard bil ujrah, waqf (islamic trust bank), and takaful which help bringing socioeconomic justice and overall welfare of the society. the islamic modes of student financing are well supported by quran, hadith (sunnah), ijma https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 8, no. 1; 2021 24 (consensus), qiyan (analogy), and various islamic scholars, logicians, and philosophers. aslam, haneef et al., 2015 revealed that qard al hassan based financial products by any islamic financial institutions helps to upgrade the knowledge and skills of the recipients. moreover, muneer, f., & khan, f., 2019 argued that qard al hassan can be used as an instrument to develop human resources to bring the underprivileged muslim youths to the mainstream of the society. the ujrah based student financing can be considered as the simplest form out of other structured presently used in islamic financial institutions. the financial institutions charge the recipients after completing studies or upon engagement in job or works, a fee to the client for service provided like monthly and annual charge, fixed management charge as their profits (jamaan et al., 2014). another sharia based concept of waqf or endowment plays an important role in bringing out the equality and human development for the nation. aziz m. r. a et al., 2014 stated that islamic waqf bank benefits the students and also their parents, financing student education in term of fees and cost of living. (aziz et al., 2014; yalawae et al., 2003) stated that the investment of waqf fund in human capital is considered as one of the best utilization of fund. wahyu jatmiko, 2018 narrated that introduction of waqf fund into higher education financing can potentially increase future national productivity. islahi, 1992 stated that the internationalization of the voluntary institution of waqf is needed nowadays, by setting up a non-government muslim foundation which should provide public goods on large scale and attempt to combat illiteracy, sickness and lack of technical know-how. khairunnisa masuri, 2016 explained that collaboration of sukuk and waqf can be an innovation to have low cost fund to engine the economic sustainability of higher education institutions. so waqf fund has great impact on distribution of wealth, redistribution of national income, increasing of employment and distributions of sources that will causes a stable economy. the higher education loan from takaful fund preconditioned to join as a member and repayment will be made to the fund once they have jobs and earning with a takaful contribution amount. the takaful alternative student finance (tasf) model is a unique student financing product has been initiated in uk to promote financial inclusion, particularly to avoid a subtle exclusion of those who are averse to interest-bearing student loans due to their religious beliefs. as per tasf model students are given loan from the takaful fund and students are repayment it via tax system to takaful fund. the accumulated students repayments remain in the fund are used to provide finance to the future students. wahyu jatmiko, 2018 explained that introducing an integrated waqf (islamic trust) and takaful (mutual guarantee) fund into the market can potentially reduce the student loan problem and help achieving optimum benefits for the society. methodology this is a conceptual review study adopted for re-examination and evaluation of the higher education financing based on islamic shariah an unconventional approach of student loan from the course of the existing and prominent research works and literatures. to do so, we conducted general searching of research works and literatures in the name of education financing, shariah based financing, qard al hassan, qard bil ujrah, waqf, and takaful in the online data base sources such as google scholars, spingers link, wiley, science direct, jstor, emerald full text, scopus, and ebsco host etc. from this general searching, we found a good number of research papers, journal articles, conference and any other type of works, in which we have gone through to select which articles or research papers require including in the review of this paper. subsequently reading and analyzing thoroughly the most appropriate articles, we have collected those were found as the best fit within objectives of the higher education financing based on islamic shariah. the review has examined on the basis of objectives, methods and findings accordingly of the all collected empirical studies. https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 8, no. 1; 2021 25 discussion qard al hassan qard al hassan means beautiful, kindly, and benevolent loan. it is, basically, a welfare aimed interest free loan, in which the creditor may get return only the principle amount depending on the economic conditions and moral obligation of the borrower to return it (bhuiyan, ismail, nor, ali, & solaiman, 2020; iqbal & shafiq, 2015; mohieldin, iqbal, rostom, & fu, 2011). the holly quran narrated the importance of quard al hassan in different verses (2:245; 57:11 &18; 64:17) and almighty allah assures manifold return of it. moreover allah promises to remit sins and give a place in heaven to any person who lends to him. in holly quran, allah says, “if you establish worship and pay the poor due, and believe in my messengers and support them, and lend unto allah a kindly loan, surely i shall remit your sins, and surely i shall bring you into gardens underneath which rivers flow” (al-quran, 5:12).in a hadith, prophet mohammad (pbuh) said the quard al hassan has distinct benefits over sadaqah and zakat to uphold the human dignity. ibn majah narrated in vol. 3, book 15, hadith 2,431 “on the night on which i was taken on the night journey (isra), i saw written at the gate of paradise”: “charity brings a tenfold reward and a loan brings an eighteen fold reward”. i said: “o jibril! why is a loan better than charity?” he said: ‘because the beggar asks when he has something, but the one who asks for loan does so only because he is in need”. so, it is vivid that muslims and islamic institutions practicing quard al hassan values are very much recommended to provide loan aimed at helping others on the basis of wealth redistribution, basic needs, and socioeconomic justice (ali, 1989; muneer & khan, 2019; pramanik et al., 2015). the qard al-hassan loan can be highly supportive investment to the poor and vulnerable group to meet their immediate basic needs. moreover, the qard al-hassan loan might be extended to poor and underprivileged students on the basis of their merits and potentiality to adapt them in mainstream productive and economic activities (iqbal & shafiq, 2015). but the devoted muslims around the world are facing substantial hardship regarding the current student loan systems as it is mostly interest (riba) based loans which is utterly impermissible in islamic shariah. in this case, potential devoted muslim students can take loans without interest from a qard-al-hassanbased islamic financial institutions on the basis of their merit, skills and expertise to up skill, reskill, and upgrade the knowledge of the recipients (muneer & khan, 2019; pramanik et al., 2015). therefore, islamic financial institutions can develop a qard al hassan based viable student loan system for poor and devoted muslim students. this quard al hasanah instrument certainly will help to integrate the devoted muslims in the mainstream of the society and to develop human resources. finally, qardal-hassan may help as an effective financial tool to heighten financial and social inclusion in society. by extending finance to potential unskilled and underprivileged, qard-al-hassan helps achieving economic and social justice that is ultimately envisioned by the islamic economics. qard bil ujrah the word ujrah means fees, financial charges for service utilization and wages. the ujrah model solely based on fee or reward which is given by an individual or institution or agency to another person for the effort, work and work performance or service performed (bhuiyan, ismail, ali, & solaiman, 2020; husaeni, 2018). proper rewarding for the service given is legal and permissible in islamic shariah as long as they do not involve any element of riba (interest) . allah said in surahalqasas: “one of the women said, “o my father, hire him. indeed, the best one you can hire is the strong and the trustworthy”. he said, “indeed, i wish to wed you one of these, my two daughters, on [the condition] that you serve me for eight years; but if you complete ten, it will be [as a favor] from you. and i do not wish to put you in difficulty. you will find me, if allah wills, from among the righteous” (quran, 28:26, 27). in a hadith abu huraira narrated the prophet said, "allah did not send any prophet but shepherded sheep." his companions asked him, "did you do the same?" the https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 8, no. 1; 2021 26 prophet replied, "yes, i used to shepherd the sheep of the people of mecca for some qirats" (albuḫārī & ḫān, 1997). in another hadith from 'abdullah bin' umar narrated that the messenger of allah said: “give the worker his wages before his sweat dries”. in this underlying ujrah credit concept, the islamic financial institutions can provide credit schemes to the potential devoted students based on specific fees. the student loans unlike conventional financial institutions with interest (riba), the student loans under ujrah structure creates a fixed charges, which means fixed fee along with principles will be given by the recipient. the practice of ujrah model can keep devoted and potential students away from interest (riba), a course in the society, and help them attain higher skills and knowledge to integrate in the mainstream of the society. waqf (islamic trust bank) the etymological meaning of the arabic word waqf is immobilization, detention, or standstill. in the legal context, waqf means detention of a property so that its produce or income may always be available for religious, educational or charitable purposes. when a waqf is created, the property is tied up forever and thereafter becomes non-transferable. basically, the proceeds of waqf are earmarked to charity and philanthropy. examples of beneficiaries include the poor and the needy. waqf khayri is typically used to finance mosques, shelters, schools, and universities for education. this is meant to help financially-challenged individuals and communities. waqf plays an important role in bringing out the equality and human resources development since the early of islamic civilization history (yalawae, tahir, udm, & campus, 2003). allah s.w.t. says in his holy book in surah al-baqarah verse 267 which means: ‘’oh believers spent the best things of what you had obtained and what we had given out to you from the earth”. the prophet, muhammad s.a.w. said about the waqf which was narrated by imam al bukhari through the saying of caliph omar r. a., that sounded: oh prophet! i got wealth that i never got it before and i want to be closer to allah through it. after that the prophet answered: you tried to keep the origin wealth and make charity out of it (by giving it to the needy and the people who deserved it). then caliph omar r. a. donated his land which he got from the battle of khaibar, and the land cannot be sold, even to be bought as well as to inherit it. as the devoted muslim students are struggling the interest (riba) issue in the conventional educational loan system, the islamic waqf can use the waqf fund for educational funding that could finance student’s education in term of fees and cost of living. the waqf fund investment in human capital is believed to be the best investment that promises exponential growth and moreover it could bring the relief of higher education loan to the muslim community (aziz, yusof, johari, ramli, & sabri, 2014; yalawae et al., 2003). takaful takaful means solidarity based mutual guarantee or assurance arrangement. when a group of people facing similar risks or the danger of incurring unforeseen losses, to individually contribute a certain sum of money, which will be used to compensate any member of the group who incurs such losses (othman, 2017). there is no direct legal text in the holy qurʻan and/or the sunnah on the permissibility or non-permissibility of takaful, but there are many legal texts in the qur’an and prophetic precedents (hadith) that encourage the spirit of takaful which is based on cooperation, shared responsibility, joint indemnity, common interest and solidarity. allah the almighty said: “and help ye one another in righteousness and piety but help ye not one another in sin and rancour, and fear allah for allah is strict in punishment” (qur’an, surah al-maidah, 5:2). furthermore, the prophet (pbuh) also advised the muslims to help one another to relieve hardships, as narrated by salim (r.a.): “and he who relieved a muslim from hardship allah would relieve him from the hardships to which he would be put on the day of resurrection…” (sahih muslim, kitab al-birr wa al-silah wa al adab). in addition to the above injunctions, the legality of takaful could also be https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 8, no. 1; 2021 27 supported with analogies (qiyas) with several practices in islamic law which is similar to it. the international islamic fiqh academy (iifa) defined takaful as follows ”cooperative insurance is the process in which a group of people, who face certain risk(s), agree that each of them contribute a specific amount, based on cooperation, to a non-profit fund that is to be used for compensating anyone of them for the harms he would encounter when the risk in question materializes, as per signed contracts and adopted regulatory legislations”. and the accounting and auditing organization for islamic financial institutions (aaoifi) defines takaful as “a process of agreement among a group of persons to handle the injuries resulting from specific risks to which all of them are vulnerable”. therefore, takaful, regardless of how it is interpreted in other languages, is a shariah compliant mutual assurance contractual structure, where participants contribute their resources to mitigate against future risks based on agreed terms (comcec, 2019). an integrated takaful, solidarity based mutual guarantee, into the student financing market can potentially reduce the interest based student loan problem for devoted muslim students. unlike the traditional student loan, this model will give an interest-free loan to eligible students. the students who obtain the finance from this fund must join as members of the cooperative. repayment will be made to the fund once they have jobs and earning above the repayment threshold. instead of interest, they will repay a takaful contribution to the fund as a charitable gift for the benefit of the subsequent members to complete their studies. therefore, the members of the fund basically help each other to attend higher education on the basis of mutual structure. this takaful model can help largely to the muslim students by financing higher education without sacrificing their faith. conclusion and policy recommendation higher education financing is contributing towards vast opportunities for the potential and underprivileged students to obtain quality education and better job, and finally have better income and standard of living. the development of shariah based higher education financing schemes can be a very effective tool for higher education financing as because many muslims are struggling with the student loan issue due to the prohibition of interest (riba). the modes of shariah based islamic financing i.e. qard al hassan (benevolent loan), qard bil ujrah (fee or charges of services), waqf (islamic trust bank), and takaful (cooperative or solidarity based mutual guarantee) are well evidenced by quran, hadith, islamic jurisprudence, and eminent islamic scholars’ opinion. in islamic economic perspective, shariah based student financing offerings bring immense opportunities and prospects to unlock new potentials. due to having higher interest rate and system fragility of conventional student financing, the shariah based student financing is the best alternative and apparently the best solution for potential and underprivileged students. islamic financial institutions with strong shariah, regulatory, and legal framework and comprehensive islamic finance infrastructure is required to steer the shariah based student financing industry into new heights. references al-buḫārī, m. i.-i., & ḫān, m. m. (1997). the translation of the meanings of sahîh al-bukhâri: arabic-english. 9. ahâdith 6861 to 7563: darussalam. ali, a. y. (1989). the holy qur'an: text, translation and commentary (brentwood, maryland, usa: amana corporation). ali, yunasril.(2002). jalan kearifan sui: tasawuf sebagai terapi derita manusia jakarta: serambi ilmu semesta. avery, c., & turner, s. (2012). student loans: do college students borrow too much--or not enough? journal of economic perspectives, 26(1), 165-192. https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 8, no. 1; 2021 28 aziz, m. r. a., yusof, m. a., johari, f., ramli, a., & sabri, h. (2014). the relief of higher education loan through islamic waqf bank. asian social science, 10(22), 175-181. becker, g. s. (1975). investment in human capital: effects on earnings human capital: a theoretical and empirical analysis, with special reference to education, second edition (pp. 13-44): nber. bhuiyan, a. b., ismail, a. g., ali, m. j., & solaiman, m. (2020). islamic economics methodology patterns of reasoning and the structure of theories. international journal of shari'ah and corporate governance research, 3(2), 10-24. bhuiyan, a. b., ismail, a. g., nor, m. z. b., ali, m. j., & solaiman, m. (2020). the islamic economics philosophy and application reality in the existing islamic economic activities in the world. international journal of shari'ah and corporate governance research, 3(2), 25-39. blom, a., & canton, e. (2004). can student loans improve accessibility to higher education and student performance? an impact study of the case of sofes, mexico: the world bank. chaiwut, k., rueangsirarak, w., & chaisricharoen, r. (2018). criteria redesign for student loan consideration using factor analysis and data clustering approach. ecti transactions on computer and information technology (ecti-cit), 12(2), 153-164. husaeni, u. a. (2018). law on fee (ujrah) in gratuitous contract: study on national sharia board-indonesian council of ‘ulamā fatwā. journal of shariah law research, 3(1), 125-138. iqbal, z., & shafiq, b. (2015). islamic finance and the role of qard-al-hassan (benevolent loans) in enhancing inclusion: a case study of akhuwat. acrn oxford journal of finance and risk perspectives, 4(4), 23-40. johnstone, d. b., & shroff-mehta, p. (2003). higher education finance and accessibility: an international comparative examination of tuition and financial assistance policies. globalization and reform in higher education, 11. li, w. (2013). the economics of student loan borrowing and repayment. business review q, 3, 110. mohieldin, m., iqbal, z., rostom, a., & fu, x. (2011). the role of islamic finance in enhancing financial inclusion in organization of islamic cooperation (oic) countries: the world bank. mueller, r. e., & rockerbie, d. w. (2004). issues in education demand: the ontario experience. retrieved june, 15, 2008. https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 8, no. 1; 2021 29 muneer, f., & khan, f. (2019). qard-al-hassan as a tool for poverty alleviation a case of fael khair waqf program in bangladesh. journal of islamic monetary economics and finance, 5(4), 829-848. mussa, a. (2015). sustainability of higher education students’ loan scheme (hesls) in tanzania. natek, s., & lesjak, d. (2011). integrated higher education information systems-professors’s knowledge management tools. issues inf syst, 12, 80-86. othman, m. h. (2017). takaful: realities and challenges. institutions and economies, 187-190. pramanik, a., mohammed, m., haneef, m., amin, f., aliyu, a., dabour, n., & bağcı, k. (2015). integration of waqf and islamic microfinance for poverty reduction: case studies of malaysia, indonesia and bangladesh. the statistical, economic and social research and training centre for islamic countries (sesric) and international islamic university malaysia. international islamic university malaysia (iium). psacharopoulos, g. (1986). financing education in developing countries: an exploration of policy options: eric. salmi, j. (2003). student loans in an international perspective: the world bank experience. lcshd paper series, 44. simon, f., małgorzata, k., & beatriz, p. (2007). education and training policy no more failures ten steps to equity in education: ten steps to equity in education: oecd publishing. yalawae, a., tahir, i. m., udm, u., & campus, k. (2003). the role of islamic institution in achieving equality and human development: waqf or endowment. universiti darul iman malaysia (udm). ziderman, a. (2013). increasing access to higher education through student loans. cesifo dice report, 11(2), 11-18. copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. this is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0) copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr american economic & social review; vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 published by centre for research on islamic banking & finance and business, usa 8 rural socio-economic development through tourism in bangladesh: ways and means gopal chandra saha phd associate professor department of business administration ranada prasad shaha university, naryanganj, bangladesh e-mail: gopalsaha_ru@yahoo.com abstract this study endeavors to test the effect of promoting of rural tourism in bangladesh. rural tourism can offer assistance in forming our society. it can have both positive and negative impacts on rural as well as urban communities. there's a scope of rural tourism in bangladesh. the government ought to empower private enterprises to advance tourism in rural areas. for creating the rural tourism we ought to get it the rural environment, demography, socio-culture, financial and political foundation of that put. how we will include the country individuals to improve their socio-economic condition. to create a key promoting arranges for rural tourism we ought to get it the target customer, their needs and how to coordinate it with our rural framework. rural tourism can create a win-win circumstance for both the rural and urban communities. keywords: rural tourism, socio-economic, employment opportunities. 1. introduction rural tourism may be a branch of activity that has been turning into more and more well-liked within the developing countries in the recent time. as bangladesh is filled with natural beauties, rural tourism can play a very important role in property development of rural societies. the potentiality of rural tourism as a major force in rural socio-economic development is nevertheless to be realized to the fullest extent. though national tourism policy was adopted in 1992 surprisingly tourism in the rural landscape has not been considered there. the traditional way of life right from their traditional attire to their traditional food forms a delightful destination for tourists. bangladesh along with green country-side, rich and several unique customs and traditions, colorful festivals, folk arts and handicrafts as well as historical heritage can definitely take benefit of the situation. but recent facts and figures depict bangladesh’s failure to portray her as an attractive tourist destination. rural business focuses on actively collaborating in an exceedingly rural life-style. it is a modified of eco-tourism. different villages will facilitate business enterprise as a result of many villagers is hospitable and desperate to welcome guests. agriculture is changing into extremely mechanized and thus, needs less manual labor. rural tourism product and activities want a decent state of conservation of natural and cultural resources, accommodation integrated into the atmosphere, services providing native product and handicrafts, native food and keeping of traditions. in this way, it is not only increasing the benefits to the service providers but increase the benefits to the rural society through employment opportunities, income generate and improving local lifestyles. propoor tourism is a suitable form of tourism which can be developed easily in the rural areas which is socially and economically beneficial to the local and service providers. people visit to the tourist destinations for making themselves relax and free from their daily hassles and enjoying leisure times. sometimes, they are more preferred to visit in the rural destinations as they are literally feed up with the urban busy life. however, developing rural tourism in the local areas is quite difficult follow up the reasons behind whether pro poor or not, some issues make it difficult as lack of economic, social and logistical issues along with product quality, infrastructure and accessibility of the local destinations, skilled manpower and interest of investors. 1.1 significance of the study the analysis results would assist government with distinguishing the traditional problems and outcomes of rural tourism development in the countryside in bangladesh. this study supposed to find out the potentially of rural tourism in the countryside of bangladesh and ensure the participation of the local community with social benefits. this investigation will surely give a huge assistance to the government and tourism industry partners to expand tourism throughout the country along with the poverty reduction in the rural areas. the research goal is to design rural tourism activities familiar in the rural areas along with the existing natural resources which will help both the host community and investors to sustain this business in the rural areas. after this research, govt. and tourism professionals will be able to make quick and proper decision to grow up rural tourism all over the country. copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 9 1.2 scope of the study in the context of bangladesh, rural tourism is literally a new concept of tourism yet to be developed in the rural areas. as we know, bangladesh is full of natural beauties with its enormous natural resources, culture, heritage, traditions and varieties of lifestyles in the different division in bangladesh that are differentiate from each to others. this study will find out the ways to develop rural tourism besides economic benefits to the local communities. tourism is one of the most growing sectors in the country that is directly and indirectly contributes to the national economy. rural tourism can play a significant role to expand tourism throughout the country with socio-economic benefits. we have a major scope to work in this area. 1.3 statement of the problem there is very few information available in the concept of rural tourism in bangladesh as researchers are not working in this particular areas very much. therefore, the problems of rural tourism development are quite challenging particularly in the context of bangladesh. but through this study, we are tried to address some problems based upon rural socio-economic development. lack of road and transportation system, education and proper training among the rural people, preservation of nature, lack of sustainable development, insufficient accommodation for tourists, and decentralization of power supply are some sorts of areas that should be ensured in the local destinations to get the benefits of it. rural tourism has the potentially to provide leisure activities and services to the visitors and satisfied both the parties as service providers and local communities. however, this research ought to ensure rural socio-economic development through tourism sector. 1.4 objectives of the study the main reason of this study and the result is mostly to be familiar with the socio economic development in rural areas in bangladesh. the study will hopefully able to explore the potentiality of rural tourism in bangladesh that could play an important role in socio-economic development of rural societies.  ensure community participation in rural tourism in the countryside.  find out the problems of rural tourism in bangladesh.  suggest why and how to engage the rural community in tourism activities and ensure their socio-economic benefits through rural tourism. 1.5 research question  how can rural tourism benefit the economy of bangladesh?  what sorts of support are needed to develop rural tourism in the rural areas and ensure the participation of host community?  how to make the tourists stay interesting and worth spending of their money in rural areas with their requirements?  how to develop communication skills of the employees and executives intensive training courses in foreign languages, especially, in english should be conducted?  what are the ways of improved transport networks and well-organized transport should be built without hampering the natural environment? 2. literature review the remarkable growth of global tourism over the last decades is one of the most outstanding economic phenomena of the 21st century. rural tourism is becoming a new sector in terms of modern tourism industry. in this modern age; people are habituated with the use of artificial products and elements in their daily life. it is mentioned earlier that there is no comprehensive study available in bangladesh. however, some articles have been available in the contexts of other countries on this area: these are reviewed as under: rural tourism belonged to traditional farm-based or agricultural tourism which has been changed rapidly and is creating some new approaches such as conservation activities, cultural activities, water based activities and others (amin & rahman, 2017). berriere (1998) found that rural areas are becoming new attractions among the modern tourists. those are seen the rural areas as places for entertainment, second homes, leisure activities and as an alternative source related to urban residential areas. yang & smith (2011) worked in the context of ethnic tourism and cultural representation which is closely related to rural tourism on which they had found that tradition is closely related to rural tourism; however rural places cannot remain detached from the effect of globalization and modernization which has been created new activities such as visiting ethnic villages, theme parks and ethnic homes, taking part in events and participating in conventional dances or festivals. copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 10 kantar & svržnjak (2017) notified that rural areas in croatia are dominated by the forestry and agricultural activities as a traditional profession on rural people whereas rural tourism can provide a balanced relationship of biological-ecological, economic, socio cultural and political dimension. butler found (1974) that researchers noticed that the developing countries are deprived of benefits derived from tourism and suggested proper planning that includes the socio-cultural, economic and environmental factors etc. according to unwto, various terms are of used to explain tourism in rural areas including rural life, art culture and heritage at rural location even farm tourism, agri-tourism etc. oppermann (1997) felt “rural tourism occurs in non-urban setting where human activities are present. hossain & layan (2018) have been worked on the context of rural community based tourism in bangladesh where they have mentioned that the financial and social parts of provincial networks and natural parts of the area concerned ought to be given due accentuation for rustic the travel industry advancement and network involvement. by creating appropriate foundation, making astute arranging, building open private participation, making required venture and making mass mindfulness in the nation, a progressive change can be made in the travel industry sector of bangladesh. kapur (2016) has recently been worked in the context of rural economic development in india where she found that the potential economic benefits of rural tourism through opportunities for rural enterprises generate income and new employment opportunities without undertaking migration can motive the local communities to engage themselves with rural tourism sector. where she suggested that untapped potential areas of rural tourism need to be explored and systematical development of rural infrastructure without hampering the natural environment and preserving the local heritage. okech & george (2012) mentioned in their paper that tourism can be developed successfully in the rural areas by ensuring the quality of the product; accessibility and infrastructure of the destination, availability of skills and interest of investors etc. along with the engagement of the local community and ensure net benefit of them. continuous exploration of industrialization in the cities creating negative impacts to the city dwellers. therefore, they are motivated rapidly to visiting in the rural areas and take some fresh breath and relaxation from their daily hassle of daily life. but rural tourism emerged, and the number and size of tourists is still in the primary stage of development in transportation facilities, improvement of the accessibility of rural areas and promote the development of rural tourism. 2.1 research gap in bangladesh, rural tourism is a kind of new concept of tourism. the literature review has also found hundreds more of academic articles published in journals, books and websites. however, there is not exact research paper available on rural socioeconomic development all over the countries to date. moreover, most of the studies have not inspected the involvement of host community in all components of rural tourism in each destination. their knowledge, skills and perceptions toward rural tourism and economic development are mandatory for more in depth understanding about the role of rural tourism to ensure their socioeconomic development. these are the evidences that there is limited work in place requiring rural socio-economic development through tourism expand in the country of 86 thousands of villages. this study expects to find out the ways and means to ensure socio-economic development through rural tourism 3. methodology of the study the research has been conducted based on secondary data along with some primary data. to collect the secondary data, annual reports of bpc, related journals, periodicals, newspapers, bpc’s web page etc. were consulted. in addition to that for bangladesh bank, bangladesh bureau of statistics, published reports, books, journal, daily newspaper and websites etc. qualitative and quantitative data are used to carry this research paper. qualitative data are mostly providing in details information about this topic which we have collect through literature review from articles and related websites. as bangladesh is land of scenic beauty with thousands of villages and the people who are staying in urban areas are also belongs somehow from rural areas. it becomes easy to collect quantitative data through questionnaire which has been described details in analysis part. 3.1 the study area the dense fog starts to elevate and therefore the morning sun radiates heat. street vendors shower water on contemporary vegetables and some rickshaws begin to look on the streets. this is a complete review of villages of bangladesh. about 62.8% people are live in the rural areas containing 86000 of villages. the potentiality of rural tourism is often higher than the other type of tourism based on the availability of resources. natural resources are mostly available in the rural areas such as chottogram hilly districts ( rangamati, bandarban and khagrachari ), khustia, sylhet, moulavhibazar, sunamgonj, dinarpur, bogura, natore, rajshahi, bagerhat and more. this study mainly focuses on the rural destinations along with heritage, cultural or religious values such as shat gombuj mosque at bagerhat with nearby areas, mohasthangar at bogura with nearby areas, sompur bihar at naogoan with nearby areas, kantejeur temple with nearby areas, lalon achra at khustia with nearby areas, shajhekvelly, kaptai lake, kaucaradong and aborigine’s villages at chottagram hilly districts. these areas are purposely chosen to collect accurate copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 11 information about the sites and their perception about to grow up tourism in these particular places. people are interestedly providing their views through questionnaire and some of them are involved with tourism services. 3.2 populations population belongs to the people to whom researchers collect information about their particular area of researches. according to the type of study, ‘rural socio-economic development through tourism: ways and means’ we are targeted to the type of people such as student, service holder, business, self-employed, household and retired etc. to collect the related information. 3.3 size of sample sample size refers to the number of individuals selected from the study population. the appropriate sample size for this study was 65 respondents, where 34 respondents are female and 31 respondents are male from all targeted groups in selected destinations were given a questionnaire to fill up. these are included individual categories number of respondent service holder 14 student 38 business 3 self-employed 4 household 3 retired 3 3.4 sample selection procedure to carry on this study, simple random sampling is being used to draw samples from the selected rural destinations. it creates equal opportunities for the respondents to share their views separately. from the selected areas, we have taken 65 respondents including service holder, students, small businessman, self-employed, households and retired persons to collect the information about the topic. we are not using any other sampling procedure as we have already able to collect authentic information from the required random sampling procedure. 3.5 data and information gathering in this study both primary and secondary data were collected. 3.5.1 primary data primary knowledge gives primary info or direct evidences concerning the subject underneath investigation. this knowledge was collected directly from the respondents within the learning areas mistreatment interviews, questionnaires and observation. the respondents had provided info on the learning topic. primary knowledge most of the time provides a transparent variables. 3.5.2 observation observation is the system of information gathering through observing and hearing amid field considers. it tends to be impartial, take part or non-member perception. with the end goal of this investigation non-member observation with none controlled was utilized all the while to meet. the motivation behind doing that was to get acquainted with wonder and lessen predisposition data. 3.5.3 questionnaire a questionnaire is the set of questions to which the respondents individually respond in writing. in this study we are using both the open ended questions which are required respondent to write responses whatever they think about the question and closed ended questions which are also required respondents are restricted to the pre-determined answers. the questionnaire used this study divided into two parts. in the first part contains with some assessment of the mechanism to which tourism benefits the rural areas, while the second part evaluates the barriers or challenges faced the effort of tourism to be established in the local areas. few questions are on likert scale (i.e.1 is for very strongly disagree, 2, disagree, 3, neutral, 4, agree, 5, very strongly agree). 3.5.4 secondary data secondary data are mostly available in the books, published articles, thesis paper, newspaper and websites. nowadays social media becomes a popular source of secondary data available in the internet. the specialist can acquire information from the sources both interior and outer to the association. secondary data helps researchers to cross check their views with the existing data which clarify the study more authentic to the receiver. copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 12 3.6 data analysis and interpretations this research is carried out to better understanding of socio-economic development through tourism in the countryside. data analysis is the part of reducing a huge amount of data collected through various methods of data collection to make sense about to conclude of the study. both the qualitative and quantitative methods are being used to collect data for this research. for this study content analysis is being carried out through uses of qualitative data that has been collected via questionnaire. further analysis is being worked by the initial findings, seeking patterns and relationships in the data collected from primary and secondary sources. for the purpose of this study, some statistical tools like graph, symbol and table is being used to interpret the data in the following chapter 4. 3.7 limitations of the study bangladesh faces several problems to develop socio-economic conditions through rural tourism in the countryside. throughout this study, a limited number of samples covered for find out the necessary information that can help the authority to implement tourism events and activities in the rural areas. but as we mentioned earlier that this concept of tourism is very new in the context of bangladesh. tourism was identified as a thrust sector, but very few papers have focused on the rural community-based tourism issues. even these studies did not even highlight how to involve the local community with tourism activities and enhance their socio-economic conditions. apart from these, we have found some barriers that prevent tourism activities in the rural areas as lack of research and instructions for development of rural tourism, inability of the local people to develop tourism, lack of investment, lack of foreign language skills, underdeveloped infrastructure and connectivity with the rural destinations etc. to overcome these limitations, an intensive study should be carried out with the existing literature in this field, foreign journal and relevant publication by government and concern authority 4. analysis and interpretation of data this chapter reports the findings generated from the research. first, the potentiality of rural tourism at the local areas in bangladesh is discussed based on the theoretical frameworks outlined in chapter one. the main theme of this paper is to find out how to ensure socio-economic development through rural tourism in the countryside. for which the different types of data has been collated through primary and secondary sources that is analyzed in this part. this study is conducted normally by closed and open questionnaire systems. the analysis reveals how community participation changes with socio-economic development when they interact with each other and share the tourism activities among the community, tourists and organizations in the rural areas. there are 65 respondents given their opinion through several questions asked through the questionnaire. 4.1 demographics characteristics 4.1.1 gender gender makes difference between the types of decision based on same particular areas. as people are independent in nature so their decision also varies by their gender differences. figure 1. gender of the participants for conducting this research both the male and female respondents has been chosen to get authentic information where 46% are male and 54% are female provide their valuable opinion through this survey. where female participants are more engaged rather than the male members that indicates a positive sign for the tourism industry. 46% 54% gender male female copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 13 4.1.2 age age is a major influencing factor because people are making their decision based on their requirement. here on this survey, 75.38% of the participants are belongs to 21-30 age group, 10.77% of the participants are belongs to 31-40 age group, 6.15% of the participants are belongs to 41-50 age group, 4.62% of the participants are belongs to the 51-60 age groups and rest of 3.08% of the participants are belongs to 61-70. but unfortunately there are no participants provide their opinion at the age group above 70. figure 2. age of the participants most of the participants are belongs to the age group of 21-30 those are mostly youngster who are concern more about promoting tourism in the countryside. 4.1.3 profession profession makes the difference between one men to other which is directly influence in the decision about having plan for tourist destinations. figure 3. profession of the participants throughout this study, there are 20% of the participants are service holder, 57% of students, 8% of businessman, 6% of self-employed, 6% of household and 3% of retired persons. most of the participants belong to student and service holders. 4.1.4 education level education is the determining factor that facilitates the socio-economic development and lifestyle of the people living both the urban and rural areas of the country. the purpose of asking the participants about their education level is to know the relation between education and tourism opportunities in the rural areas engaging host communities. 20% 57% 8% 6% 6% 3% profession service holder (13) student (37) business (5) self employed (4) household (4) retired (2) copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 14 figure 4. education level of the participants the results indicates that 42% of the participants are undergraduate, 34% graduate, 18% post graduate, 3% diploma, 1% ph.d. and rest 2% others provide their opinion regarding the questionnaire on rural socio-economic development through tourism in bangladesh. 4.2 do you visit in the rural areas in bangladesh? this question was asked to know whether the respondents are aware about the rural areas as they were going to provide further information about how tourism can contribute in the rural areas. about 93.85% of the participants are say ing ‘yes’ as bangladesh is surrounding with 86034 villages that consider as rural places in our country. some of participants are not yet to visit rural areas as they were born in the urban areas and not the reason to visit in the rural areas. but they are still having some ideas about the rural areas because their family member and neighbors are somehow belonging from the local cities. 4.3 job opportunities through rural tourism according to this study, it was asked to the respondents that whether rural tourism created job opportunities in the countryside. they are agreed with it as 50.77% of participants say agree, 18.46% say strongly agree, 23.07% say neutral, 4.62% say disagree and 9.08% say strongly disagree with this statement. figure 5. job opportunities through rural tourism most of the respondents are agreed that rural tourism create job opportunities in the village but few are not agreed perhaps they are more concern about the natural existence of resources and tranquility of villages remain unchanged but tourism is a golden sector to develop rural areas by both socially and economically. ph.d 1% post graduate 18% graduate 34% undergradute 42% diploma 3% others 2% education level 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 strongly disagree disagree neutral agree stronly agree job opportunities through rural tourism copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 15 4.4 seasonal and poorly paid job created by tourism tourism is not spread that much in the rural areas regarding the developed countries. but the situation becoming changes from the last decades, along with the others sector of tourism, rural tourism has been growing nowadays in the villages. in these circumstances, it was asked whether tourism paid poorly and only seasonal services are available in the countryside. 33.85% of the respondents are strongly agreed, 44.62% agreed, 7.69% of neutral, 12.31% of disagree and 1.64% are strongly disagree in this regard. most of the people think that tourism could not provide much benefit in the rural areas but it can be changed if necessary steps be implemented by the concern authority. figure 6. seasonal and poorly paid job created by rural tourism 4.5 possibility of push up local property prices and the cost of goods and services local areas are basically consisting of natural resources and people depend on the environment surrounding the places. the question was asked to know whether tourism will push up local property prices and the costs of goods and services. figure 7. possibility of push up local property prices and the cost of goods and services the respondents are mostly agreed with this statement as 18.46 percent say strongly agree, 47.69 percent say agree, 23.08 percent say neutral, 9.23 percent say disagree and 1.68 percent say strongly agree. one thing is clear that the people are 1% 12% 8% 45% 34% seasonal and poorly paid job created by rural tourism strongly disagree disagree neutral agree strongly agree 0 10 20 30 40 strongy disagree disagree neutral agree strongy disagree r es p o n d en t opinion possibility of push up local property prices and the cost of goods and services possibility of push up local property prices and the cost of goods and services copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 16 not aware about the tourism as they think about the opposite site of tourism sector rather focuses on the socio-economic benefits of it. most of the rural areas are deprived from the modern facilities but it is full of natural resources. mixer of the natural resources with artificial resources makes the place more attractive and lucrative to the visitors. 4.6 income of villagers increases by the development of rural tourism local communities are mostly benefited by the development of rural tourism through creating job opportunities, rises of local lands and demand for the local items. in this study, we are trying to know rural people can economically benefited by the development of tourism in the countryside. figure 8. income of villagers increases the respondents are strongly agreed by 21.54%, agreed by 52.31%, neutral by 15.38%, disagreed by 7.69%, strongly agreed by 9.08%. through this study, it can be said that development of rural tourism will surely increase the income of local communities. it will create new employment with social values to the modern society. 4.7 convenient foreign language skills of employees in the rural areas most of the respondents are agreed that foreign language skills are mandatory for the service employees to communicate with the tourists. the villagers not only have to be educated in bengali languages but have to know english to communicate with the foreign tourists. figure 9. convenient foreign language skills of employees in the rural areas incomes of villagers increase 0 20 40 strongly disagree (9.08%) disagree (7.69%) neutral (15.38%) agree (52.31%) strongly agree (21.54) r e sp o n d an d strongly disagree (9.08%) disagree (7.69%) neutral (15.38%) agree (52.31%) strongly agree (21.54) incomes of villagers increase 2 5 10 34 14 income of villagers increase 0 20 40 60 strongly disagree(1.64%) disagree(16.94%) neutral(30.77%) agree (35.38%) strongly agree(15.38%) convenient foreign language skills of employees copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 17 the chart shows that 15.38% are strongly agreeing, 35.38% agree, 30.77% neutral, 16.94% disagree and 1.64% strongly disagrees with this questionnaire. 4.8 recreational facilities promoting our uniqueness through various events and programs rural tourism creates opportunities for the rural people to develop the healthy environment for better living on the other side tourists can explore the natural resources and improve the state of the mind and body. rural tourism can establish with the facilities of various recreational events, cultural activities and local traditions festivals etc. the facilities are to be very interesting to the tourists as it becomes new opportunities for them to enjoy this natural environment and new experiences also. most of the archaeological sites are located in the countryside in bangladesh. mahasthangarh, which was known as pundranagor, located in bagura district in the northern part of bangladesh. as bangladesh is known as riverine and greenery country, we can promote tourism in the rural destinations by the activities of fishing, trekking, boating, swimming safaris in rangamati, khagrachhari and bandarban districts. sundarban and chattogram hil l tracts can be good attractions to the tourists who want to close to nature from their daily hassles of urban life. full moon night at the rural sites could be lifetime memories for a tourist because it feels like human is an integral part of nature which we forgot in the urban life. pre-harvest rites like megharani, hudmadeya and beng-biyacan be a good source of entertainment for tourists. boat racing is a popular events particularly arranged in the local areas could be an attractive events for the tourists even they can directly participate into this event with proper training. there are many events, programs and festival celebrated at the rural sites in different times in a year. tourism can promote these events with some additional services to the local areas. 4.9 financial support for the conservation of ecosystems and natural resources economic benefits of tourism are well known to the modern society but in terms of rural areas are different as it’s totally depends on the natural environment. any changes can make huge difficulties for the local communities. but tourism can reduce the damages through providing financial support for the conservation of ecosystems and natural resources. in this regards, respondents are totally agree with it as 18.46 percent strongly agrees, 53.85 percent agrees, 20 percent neutral, 4.62% disagree and 9.08% strongly disagree. figure 10. financial support for the conservation of ecosystems and natural resources these activities increases the prices of rural lands, demands for the local goods and services, improvement in the public services, modernization of the agricultural activities and other services as well. the rural people will be able to do small business in the tourist destinations. natural disasters become severe problems for the countryside people. in our country, the rate is much higher than other developing countries. almost every year, bangladesh has to face natural calamities and disasters because of its existence in the geographical disastrous places in the south part asian continent. 4.10 identify as a land of villages the changes within the urban scene go generally unnoticed compared to that in towns, particularly in creating nations. the in general town scene shows up with an unused see after indeed minor changes happening there. the country see in bangladesh has undergone radical changes within the final 3-4 decades. earlier to this period, the towns essentially remained stuck in time, one that does not move. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 strongly disagree (9.08%) disagree (4.62%) neutral (20%) agree(53.85) strongly agree(18.46) 2 3 13 35 12 financial support for the conservation of ecosystams and natural resources copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 18 to the more current eras within the moment decade of the 21st century numerous prior country scenes might appear incredible. in the time of winters, these days barely any destitute villager is found shuddering in cold due to the shortage of warm clothing. however the total season of winter utilized to be seen wear absent with most of the villagers persevering the nibble of cold. individuals wrapped in lean woolen shawl or wearing a shirt and shoes would be considered fortunate or advantaged. the elders' common winter wear in those days by and large included a worn-out cotton 'chadar' and lungi. most of them moved shoeless exterior their homes, with an earthen pot filled with stewing bran cinders in their lap. few little children claimed a shirt. they would be found secured from lower leg to neck with the lungis of their fathers or other older folks. bangladesh villages these days stand witness to the natural products of autonomy, which is more apparent than seen within the cities. many rural areas were once highly inaccessible. the most noticeable feature that stands out within the changed see of villages is their advance in instruction. the well-known see that the agro-based more prominent bengal was a arrive of idealistic joy and satisfaction within the past is still a subject of talk about. the great bengali poet rabindranath tagore chronicled this hopeless state of the then east bengal villages in his letters written from areas under the jurisdiction of his ancestral 'zeminderi'. the highest crest keokradong within the south-east end of bandarban area 1230 meters over the ocean level also considered as a rural areas. hence with its variegated land features bangladesh shows up like a dynamic theme sprinkled with charming magnificence and serenity. in this study, the questionnaire asked to the respondents whether they feel pride in identification of our rural places with this enormous diversity for developing tourism in these particular areas. table1. identify as a land of villages for exploration of tourism type of responses number of responses strongly disagree 0 disagree 4 neutral 8 agree 36 strongly disagree 16 this result also indicates that the people feel pride in identification of the rural places with various diversity those is also consider as lucrative to the tourists. 4.11 arrange cultural programs for entertain tourists in rural ranges, class is connected to the sum of arrive possessed, occupation, and instruction. a landowner with more than five sections of land is at the beat of the financial scale, and little subsistence ranchers are within the center. at the bottom of the scale are the landless rural families that account for almost 30 percent of the rural populace. landowning status reflects financial course position in provincial ranges, in spite of the fact that occupation and education also play a part. the most highly taught individuals hold positions requiring education and scientific abilities, such as in banks and government workplaces, and are for the most part agreed a better status than are agriculturists. little businessmen may gain as much as those who have occupations requiring an instruction but have a lower social status. figure 11. arrange cultural programs for entertain tourists 0 5 9 33 18 strongly disagree disagree(7.69%) neutral(26.15%) agree(44.62%) strongly agree(21.54%) arrange cultural programs for entertain tourists arrange cultural programs for entertain tourists copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 19 through this study, the results indicate that respondents are strongly agrees by 21.54 percent, agrees by 44.62 percent, neutral by 26.15% percent, disagrees by 7.69% and no one strongly disagree with this question. the respondents provide positive opinion about to arrange cultural programs in the rural areas for entertain tourists. 4.12 economic and social benefits of tourism though uses natural resources bangladesh may be a nation filled with characteristic wonders and untouched saves and domestic to an assortment of special and wonderful creatures. with hills, valleys, woodlands, shorelines, lakes and waterways, ecotourism in bangladesh is ideal. bangladesh boasts to having the world’s greatest mangrove woodland biological system, expansive flawless shoreline, impressive hilly areas (khagrachari, rangamati and bandarban), an enormous marine world and the biggest lake built by man. a variety of ecotourism exercises are on offer in bangladesh. climb through the farmland as you explore for antiquated sanctuaries on the bay’s seaward islands. trust on board a vessel and float along on a glistening lake or waterway. journey through thick woodland where we'll come over mru towns. stand a chance of seeing bangladesh’s amazing tigers. numerous tourism companies offer an assortment of schedules and personalized eco-tours together with learned guides who will include to your amazing involvement. the nearby community must be included with and get wage and other tangible benefits (consumable water, streets, health clinics, etc.) from the preservation range and its traveler offices. campsites, lodges, direct administrations, restaurants and other concessions ought to be run by or in organization with communities encompassing a stop or other visitor destination. 4.13 cleanliness should be maintained in the rural areas no one needs to visit a place that's not clean or undesirable. tourism cannot survive without a clean and secure environment. communities that don't give wonderful surroundings and a clean environment have a really difficult time drawing in trade. figure 12. cleanliness should be maintained in the rural areas most of the respondents are agrees about to ensure cleanliness in the rural destinations as 35.38% are strongly agrees, 50.77% are agrees, 7.69% are neutral, 6.15% are disagree and no one is strongly disagree. 4.14 major findings and barriers of socio-economic development of rural tourism through this study, we are trying to address the areas where to improve and create opportunities for developing tourism in the rural destinations. bangladesh is full of natural beauties with its charming rural places that prove the potentiality of tourism development with their socio-economic conditions. the major challenges are ought to protect the environment and common assets, the requirement for instruction, appropriate understanding for both visitors and neighborhood individuals, and the ought to generate a majority rule development which makes a difference individuals at all levels to take an interest in tourism improvement. the agreeable framework in rural tourism can be a successful approach in bringing positive affect in rural regions. there are some barriers identified through this study those are as follows: underdeveloped people a huge number of populations are illiterate in the countryside and they are bound by their traditional values and norms. their culture, religion, superstition have a solid impact on their states of mind and behaviors. the paces of life of the villagers are exceptionally moderate and they have a propensity to stay to their conventional employments whether they are profitable or not, 0 20 40 strongly disagree(0) disagree(6.15%) neutral(7.69%) agree(50.77%) strongly agree(35.38%) 0 2 5 35 23 cleanliness should be maintained copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 20 they are not much interested to require up hazard. but it has been watched that after globalization the provincial economy began appearing the desire to develop, the media is playing a critical part in changing the attitude of the local customer. lack of skilled employees the prepared individuals in inn administration may not be interested to go to provincial area to work. the rural individuals who will be designated are required to be prepared for releasing their obligations. the victory of rural tourism completely depends on the quality of benefit given to the visitor. to pull in distinctive sort of traveler, whether it could be a nature tourism, wellbeing tourism or agro tourism, everybody anticipates quality benefit at right time. language barriers local people are not skilled in foreign and other native languages which created difficulties for the tourists to properly communicate with the host community. even it creates major misunderstanding between visitors and local people which will badly effect on the tourism business. the people not only have to educate themselves but they have to understand bangle to communicate with native tourists and english to communicate with foreigners. legislation problems the government ought to empower rural tourism to develop. but the question emerge, who will be eventually profited by not charging the tax. urban business people will be empowered to take part in rural tourism the villagers who will amplify their administrations will be profited by implication. there may well be law and arrange issue. any exterior can come and contaminate the environment by seeing appealing benefits. insufficient financial support rural tourism term is still exceptional to numerous of the respondents. this is often since the government has fair begun advancing provincial tourism. government ought to empower rustic tourism by giving financial support to begin the venture. since it'll make business in rural destinations and it'll too offer assistance in flow of finance from urban to rural. it can offer assistance in avoiding the movement of individuals from rural area to urban areas. lack of host community involvement unless local people are fully engage them into this sector. it becomes quite difficult to successfully develop tourism in the countryside. first of all, they are not well known to the facilities of rural tourism in the countryside and its socio-economic values. most of the rural individuals don't have much information of tourism, and are deceived outside investors who trust to require most of the financial benefits from rural areas. thus, local individuals ended up confused about what kind of tourism they need to set up in their claim range. lack of transportation system transportation system is so poor particularly in the rural destinations. most of the cases, sub ways need to use to reach in the final destinations. highways are far away from the rural places that create difficulties for the local people to travel in the rustic areas. safety and security system safety and security system is not much good particularly in the remote destinations. health care facilities are not better in the rural areas that may raise a big question to develop tourism in the countryside. it is not only difficulties for the tourists but for the local communities also. 4.15 recommendations governments ought to recognize significance of rural tourism at need and offer assistance in making sound competitive business environment. government ought to attempt to create information for decision-making bodies contributing for creating the human assets, make satisfactory offices and appropriate foundation like convenience, streets, airport offices, rail offices, neighborhood transport, communication joins and other fundamental conveniences ended up fundamental for advancement of rural tourism. throughout this study, it could be concluded with the following suggestions that should initiate by the government and the concern authority to socio-economic development of rural tourism:  promote rural tourism into those places still underdeveloped.  ensure quality product based on the categories of rural destinations.  develop rural tourism protecting natural resources, local heritage and lifestyles.  government should ensure proper transport and communication system in the rural areas. copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 21  different rural destinations are full of cultural and natural resources that should be maintained carefully and provide services to the visitors without disturbing its authenticity.  create awareness among the host community and educate them about tourism.  public and private sector should provide sufficient financial support in terms of developing tourism in the rural destinations.  ensure proper safety and security system in the countryside.  develop confidence on the government, service providers and local communities. it may well be an economical income creating extend for rural development of our government. it can offer assistance influx to assets from urban to the rural economy. it can avoid relocation of provincial individuals to urban. both short-term and longterm arranging, executing and checking are crucial in avoiding damage to local regions. natural administration, nearby inclusion, sound legislation, economical showcasing and reasonable arranging are vital for development of rural tourism. rural tourism product and activities want a decent state of conservation of natural and cultural resources, accommodation integrated into the atmosphere, services providing native product and handicrafts, native food and keeping of traditions. in this way, it is not only increasing the benefits to the service providers but increase the benefits to the rural society through employment opportunities, income generate and improving local lifestyles. 5. conclusion bangladesh along with green country-side, rich and several unique customs and traditions, colorful festivals, folk arts and handicrafts as well as historical heritage can definitely take benefit of the situation. rural tourism will developed as a vital instrument for socio-economic development counting employment generation, environmental recovery and improvement of inaccessible areas and women empowerment and other impeded groups within the nation separated from advancing social integration and worldwide understanding. yet researches should be carried out more based on the rural destinations to develop tourism across the country. tourism is the second highest industry following the oil industry where as a country of 86034 villages bangladesh can be an example of developing rural tourism in the countryside with the uses of natural resources, rich bengali culture, unique traditions etc. both the government and local communities are becoming benefited by the development of rural tourism in the rural destinations across the country. government should develop rural tourism to ensure socio-economic development and positive social change across the country. references amin, s, murshed, m & rahman, s. (2017). economies of rural tourism. the financial express, 44(12), 330-339 butler, r.w. (1974). the social implications of tourist development. annals of tourism research, 2(2), 100-111. bessière, j., (1998). local development and heritage: traditional food and cuisine as tourist attractions in rural areas. sociologia ruralis, 38(1), 21-34 chandra roy, s. & roy, m. (2015). tourism in bangladesh: present status and future prospects. the international journal of management science and business administration, 1(8), 53-61. hossain, a., & layan, u. (2018, february 29). rural community-based tourism development in bangladesh: the conceptual issues. retrieved march 29, 2019 kantar, s., & svržnjak, k. (2017). development of sustainable rural tourism. retrieved march 29, 2019, from https://bib.irb.hr/datoteka/891089.content_61423613-2.pdf kapur, s. (2016). rural tourism in india: relevance, prospects and promotional strategies. rural tourism in india: relevance, prospects and promotional strategies, 9(1 & 2), 40-41. okech, r., haghiri, m., & p george, b. p. (2012, august 3). rural tourism as a sustainable development alternative: an analysis with special reference to luanda, kenya. retrieved march 29, 2019 r. (2010). the changing face of social administration. social policy & administration, 44(3), 326-342. shamsuddoha, m. (2009). eco tourism: an establishment of sitakunda eco park in bangladesh. ssrn electronic journal. sharma, p. & parkash, r. (2018). rural tourism in india challenges and opportunities. scholarly research journal for humanity science & english language, 6(26). yang, l. (2011). ethnic tourism and cultural representation. annals of tourism research, 38, (2), 561–585. copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 22 appendix questionnaire on rural socio-economic development in bangladesh through tourism: ways and means thank you for agreeing to take part in this important survey. today we will be gaining your thoughts and opinions in order to better serve you in the future. this survey should only take 2-3 minutes to complete. be assured that all answers you provide will be kept in the strictest confidentially. gender: o male o female age: o 21-30 o 31-40 o 41-50 o 51-60 o 6170 o 71-above what is your profession? o service holder o student o business o self employed o house hold o retired education level o ph.d. o post graduate o graduate o undergraduate o diploma o others do you visit the rural areas of bangladesh? o yes o no rural tourism has created jobs in the village? strongly disagree disagree neutral agree strongly agree jobs created by rural tourism are often seasonal and poorly paid? strongly disagree disagree neutral agree strongly agree yet rural tourism can push up local property prices and the cost of goods and services? strongly disagree disagree neutral agree strongly agree incomes of villagers increase by the development of rural tourism? strongly disagree disagree neutral agree strongly agree foreign language skills of tourism employees should be convenient in the local areas? strongly disagree disagree neutral agree strongly agree recreational facilities have come up like events, water based activities, cultural activities will help us in preserving and promoting our uniqueness? strongly disagree disagree neutral agree strongly agree tourism provides financial support for the conservation of ecosystems and natural resource management, making the destination more authentic and desirable to visitors? strongly disagree disagree neutral agree strongly agree copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 23 we take pride in identification of our village for tourism as bangladesh is called a land of villages? strongly disagree disagree neutral agree strongly agree cultural programs should be arranged in the rural destination areas for entertain tourists? strongly disagree disagree neutral agree strongly agree increase of bad behavior such as thefts, alcoholism, drug abuse have increased with tourism may hamper the culture in the local areas? strongly disagree disagree neutral agree strongly agree natural resources are better managed for tourists for ensuring both the economic and natural benefits of tourism from the local tourism destinations? strongly disagree disagree neutral agree strongly agree more cleanliness should be maintained in the local sites? strongly disagree disagree neutral agree strongly agree what do you think about the kinds of problems are still to be developed in the rural areas what steps govt. can take to develop tourism in the rural areas? copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. this is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr american economic & social review; vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 research article published by centre for research on islamic banking & finance and business, usa 21 effect of trade diversification on economic growth of ecowas countries ogunyemi joseph kayode department of banking and finance faculty of management and social sciences adekunle ajasin university, p.m.b 001 akungba akoko, ondo state, nigeria dare funso david ph.d, department of banking and finance faculty of management and social sciences adekunle ajasin university, p.m.b 001 akungba akoko, ondo state, nigeria adewole joseph adeyinka department of banking and finance faculty of management and social sciences adekunle ajasin university, p.m.b 001 akungba akoko, ondo state, nigeria e-mail: princeadeyinkaadewolej@gmail.com abstract this study investigated the effect of trade diversification on economic growth of ecowas countries. the study has looked at the determinants of exports and imports in some selected ecowas countries. the selected ecowas countries are benin, ghana, and nigeria. the employed a model form of the gmm estimator was adopted but the empirical validation shall be based on ordinary panel regression. the study revealed that the activities of the main sector when rated as a percentage of the gross domestic product is a significant factor that influences the exports and imports in these selected countries. this means that the activities done in the main sector of these economies have significant effect on the value of exports and imports. the activity of the main sector is huge and voluminous enough to accommodate some level of significant imports in order to assist production which will also be exported. the study has also revealed that the service sector is also a significant factor that influences the exports and imports of these selected ecowas countries. many experts are imported into the service sector of these countries and thus these served as a significant factor that possess influence on the performance of exports and imports in the countries. there is a negative and weak correlation between primary exports and service as a percentage of gdp. invariably, it can be said that the level of primary exports may not be related with the service sector, thus, the association is expected. the main sector performance is found to be positively correlated with the primary exports in the selected ecowas countries. the author then suggested that there is urgent need for ecowas states to place more emphasis on the exports of manufacturers’ products and make efforts to reduce concentration on exports of primary (agriculture and fuel) products. this will help improve their international trade performance especially with respect to reducing term of trade losses and unfavorable shocks in foreign earnings. also, the region should focus on production of products for domestic need; in doing this, the ecowas states will escape the trap of homogenous export and foster more intra-trade links. the region should see production as major objective rather than exports; this enhances industrial activities and innovations in the region. this attempt retains economic gains of resource within the region and foster economic well-being, the critical mass of ecowas challenge is weak productive capacity, this has accentuated the progress of the member states and the sole cause of social and economic evils within the region. ecowas should see exports as originating from domestic sufficiency. keywords: trade diversification, economic growth, ecowas countries. 1. introduction many economies of the world are basically interested in measures that can guarantee them viable and robust economic statues. this quest is more pronounced among the less developed countries (ldcs) than the developed countries (dcs) of the world. to achieve this noble objective, developing economic are constantly implementing copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | afbr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 22 policies that would not just increase their output but also, placed them in a very competitive position in the global economy. among the english speaking countries in the ecowas sub-region in africa, one of the policies embark upon is the management of their exchange rate level to encourage productivity. this step is in line with the understanding that exchange rate volatility (erv) remain a source of concern as currency values partially determine the price paid or received for output and, consequently, this affects the profits and welfare of producers and consumers (choudhri & schembri, 2014). this implies that, erv can influence the volume of output a country can produce since the cost of production is been determined by the cost of production. the exchange rate is the domestic price of foreign money. it can be simply viewed as the price of one currency in terms of another. in the wake of the recent global financial crisis in 2008/2009, there have been major fluctuations in the exchange rates of many countries, resulting in widespread exchange rate misalignments and re-alignments among countries. since the seventies, there has been an increasing importance attached to exchange rate in many countries, which could be attributed to the following among other reasons: the floating exchange rate variability and volatility as well as the need for foreign exchange risk exposure management; the globalization process and the resultant increased rate and volume of fund flows among nations; the trade liberalization undertaken by developing countries since 1980s, resulting in opening up their economies; the internationalization of modern business; the continuing growth in world trade relative to national economies; the trends towards economic integration in some regions; and the rapid pace of change in the technology of money transfer. tarawalie, sissoho, conte, and ahortor (2012) investigate the effects of exchange rate volatility on output growth and inflation in the west african monetary zone (consisting of ghana, the gambia, guinea, liberia, nigeria and sierra leone) following exchange rate regime shift. results from their study reveal that while exchange rate volatility is inflationary across all the countries, its effect on output growth differ. specifically, volatility and depreciation in particular negatively affects real gdp growth in liberia and sierra leone but positively impacts on output in the other countries albeit weakly. the difference in direction and magnitude of effect is not far-fetched from the differences in macroeconomic conditions prevailing in each country. however, razaxadehkarsalari, haghiri and behrooznia (2011) stress that depreciation of exchange rate through external forces from the aspect of government tends to cause a shift from foreign goods to domestic goods. thereby, leads to diversion of income from importing countries to countries exporting through a shift in terms of trade, and this tends to have impact on the exporting and importing countries’ economic growth. razazadehkarsalari, haghir, and behrooznia (2011) argue further that exchange rate depreciation has a negative effect on developing countries. however, the debate on exchange rate volatility and uncertainty has long divided economists as a result of different perspectives and methodologies of enquiry. some studies supported the fixed exchange rate while others argued for the floating system. idika (1998) argues that frequent changes in foreign exchange policies in nigeria were caused by unstable political environment and have prevented these policies from coming full circle within the economy. exchange rate stability which is essential ingredient for growth is influenced greatly by the appropriate policy mix by governments in their quest to attain macroeconomic objectives. nigeria being an economy that depends majorly on revenue from oil would surely feel the impact of exchange rate volatility. study carried out by world bank (2003), shows that many oil producing nations are exposed to variations in exchange rate due to their large oil wealth. however, this variation in exchange rate will then act as tax on investment in traded goods production especially agriculture and manufacturing which have an adverse impact on trade performance. moreover, high volatility in exchange rate is harmful to economic growth, and this problem is majorly associated with less developed countries (ldcs) like economic countries of west africa state (ecowas) countries because of the extreme volatility of their income streams and mono-economy. the exchange rate directly influences prices and /or profitability of traded and non-traded goods. it is a relative price and as such affects the allocation of resources over the short to medium term. the impact of sustained movements of the exchange rate on the competitive position of domestic industry vis-à-vis foreign industry in both domestic and foreign markets is the key transmission mechanism. in effect, uncertainties resulting from unanticipated changes in the domestic and international macroeconomic environments are also key factors. this is more striking in the developing countries which depend heavily on external trade: export to earn foreign exchange, imports to purchase consumer, intermediate and capital goods as well as external borrowing to finance the foreign exchange gap. therefore, the dependent peripheral structure of these economies is a major factor in the determination of exchange rates. copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | afbr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 23 since the introduction of fixed exchange rate regime and adoption of a generalized floating system by the industrialized countries in 1973, most developing countries including ecowas, have adopted various types of exchange rate policies ranging from the peg system, weighted currency basket, managed floating and more recently to the monetary zone arrangement (mordi 2006). the inconsistence in management of various exchange rate policy adopted so far in nigeria to check the high rate of volatility in exchange rates has jeopardized the overall macroeconomic objectives of the government, especially trade performance, since maintaining a relatively stable exchange rate within a country enhances and boosts economic growth (mordi,2006; mahmood & ali, 2011; & aliyu 2011). scholars and researchers have put forward suggestions that exchange rate volatility may effects outputs negatively or positively. bundesbank (2010) opined that market agents more than erv determine the level of output. this position is been supported by the view of previous scholars like cushman (1983) and lastrapes (1992) who maintained that if economic agents are moderately risk averse the impacts of exchange rate volatility on outputs will be negative. additionally, some scholar believed that the negative impact may come directly through uncertainty and adjustment costs, and indirectly through its effect on allocation of resources and government policies (aliyu, yakub, sanni, & duke, 2013). also, some scholars reported the possibility of both positive and negative relationships, and some still submitted a no relationship between these variables (bergvall, 2004; lama & medina, 2010). however, numerous studies still submitted the existence of positive relationship between erv and output (aron., elbadawi, & khan, 1997; bahmani-oskooee, 1991; gbesola & garba, 2014). the overall evidence is best characterized as mixed as the results are sensitive to the choices of proxies for exchange rate volatility, sample period, model specification, and countries considered. nevertheless, the relationship is still vital enough to be explored especially for the principal ecowas countries namely, nigeria, ghana, gambia, sierra leones, and liberia, due to various macroeconomic events, for instance the global financial crisis in 2007/2008. due to these events the relationship between their major trading partners is of interest. more so, for most of these countries production activity have been one of the major engines of economic growth. based on the inconclusiveness of previous study in terms of theoretical and empirical findings, this study tries to take a different approach in analyzing the relationship. previous work used autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (arch) and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (garch 1,1) to investigate the long run and the short run relationship between exchange rate volatility and output level. the existence of inconclusiveness in the explanation of the relationship between exchange volatility and output have led policy makers and researchers to investigate the nature and extent of the impact of such movements on volume outputs. however, this study investigate this relationship performing granger causality test in the vector error correction (vecm) framework as in the study of baak (2008). furthermore, this study looked at the relationship from an aggregate point of view (ecowas) not at country level. thus in the light of trade performance, the purpose of this study is to investigate the determinant of trade performance in economic countries of west africa state. the main objective of this study is to examine the effect of trade diversification on economic growth of ecowas countries from 1980 to 2017. to achieve this, the specific objectives are also to identify determinants of exports and imports in selected ecowas countries, to determine the impacts of export determinants on export performance in selected ecowas countries, to analyse the effects of import determinants on import performance in the selected ecowas countries. the hypotheses to be tested in this study are stated in a null form which are (1) exports and imports have no significant impact on trade performance in ecowas countries (2) there is no significant impacts of import determinants and import performance in selected ecowas countries (3) there is no significant effect of import determinants on import performance in ecowas countries. 2. theoretical framework this presents a straight–ward generalization of the model proposed by herzer and nowak-lehnmann’s (2006) as used by gustavo ferreira (2009) to test the hypothesis that export diversification has influenced economic growth in costa rica via externalities of learning-by-exporting and learning-by-doing. according to gustavo ferreira (2009), the economy is constituted by n sectors from which s are export sectors, thus s € n. it also assumed that each i sector is represented by one firm, and that their corresponding output, at a given point in time t, is determined by a neoclassical production function: yit = fit (kit, lit, pt) --------------(1) copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | afbr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 24 where kit and lit are the standard capital and labour inputs respectively. the input pt is an index of public knowledge and seen as a positive externality in equation (1) the knowledge externality has two main properties: knowledge externality is primarily generated by the export sectors as a result of both learning-by-exporting and learning-by-doing. learning-by-exporting arises when an export sector acquires knowledge from their foreign purchasers who share part of their know-how and offer advice on productivity enhancement. on the other hand, the basic idea behind learning-by-doing is that knowledge creation occurs as a by-product of production and it depends on the firm’s cumulative output. hence, firms will increase their stock of knowledge as they expand their exports, and this accumulation process will accelerate as a firm exposes itself to competitive international markets. gustavo (2009) assumed that each export sector st produces an equal amount of public knowledge pt. hence, a nation’s level of aggregated knowledge is given by the following equation pt = st pet -----------------------(2) given that pet is a constant and not directly observable parameter, the level of knowledge in the economy can be instead expressed as a function of the number of export sector pt = z(s)t -------------------------(3) it is assumed that primary goods tend to have a lower potential for learning-by-doing and learning-by-exporting comparatively to manufactured goods. consequently, they hypothesized that the pace of knowledge creation in the economy will increase with an increase in the share of manufactured products in total exports. based upon this premise, a new knowledge equation can take the following form pt = z(st, mxt) --------------------(4) where the share of manufactured products in total export (mxt) and the number of export sectors (st) are proxies for the stock of knowledge in the economy the second main property of this model is that knowledge pt is considered a public good and constant within all sectors. by treating pt as a given, our production function fit has constant-returns-to-scale. it is also assumed that all firms operate in perfect competition and are price takes. now, the aggregate production yt is written as function n yt = σyi,t = fi,t (kit, lit, pt) ------------------------------(5) i=1 inserting the public knowledge parameter of equations (4) into the production function, we get yt = fit(kit, lit)(st, mxt) = kt β lt δ st ψ mxt γ ---------------------------(6) where kt and lt represent respectively the stock of accumulated capital and labour force of the economy, and parameters are constant. inclusion of the number of export sectors and the shares of manufactured exports as explanatory variables to equation (6), it is implied that both horizontal and vertical export diversification influence economic growth via externalities of learning-by-doing and learning-by-exporting. that is, are greater than zero. in order to test the second hypothesis, we made us of dynamic panel growth model based on gmm estimator developed by arellano and bond (1991) to investigate the relationship between export diversification and per capita income, we will therefore use the equation of the system gmm estimator similar to laderman and maloney (2007). therefore, we estimate a general growth equation of the form: δyi,t = αyi,t-1 + x’i,tβ + yt + ηi + νi,t ----------------------------------(7) where δyi,t denotes the log differences of income per capita in period t, yi,t-1 is the log initial income, xi,t is a vector of potential determinants of growth, yt captures sample-wide time effects, ηi are the unobserved timeinvariant country-specific effects, and vi,t is the residual error component. 3. methods to empirically justify the research objectives and obtain the long-run relationship between growth and export diversification, hereby validating the extent of growth induced by increasing manufacturing export value added and its returns to societal development; two models shall be developed to test each of the hypothesis. copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | afbr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 25 3.1 ecowas growth-diversification model to empirically test the long-run relationship between economic growth and increased manufacturing value added (diversification) in the ecowas region, the equation below is deemed fit yt = ecit φ, edit β --------------------------------(8) where yt is real gdp in period t, edit is the export diversification index of ecowas region and ecit export concentration index. transforming equation (7) into a log-linear regular form, we have logyt = α + φlogecit + βlogedit+ υt ------------------(9) where log is the natural logarithm of the variable, and estimates φ, β represent elastisities. the error term υt is assumed to be white-noise (random walk) normally and identically distributed. equation (9) will be subjected to empirical scrutiny and the model will test the diversification-led growth hypothesis for the manufacturing sector in ecowas states. ho :φ, β = 0 h1 :φ, β > 0 it is hypothesized that estimates φ, β are positive and statistically significant, thus confirming the diversification-led growth. 3.2 panel per capita trade growth model in the testing the country specific diversification induced growth in the ecowas region, a model form of the gmm estimator will be adopted but the empirical validation shall be based on ordinary panel regression. δyi,t = αyi,t-1 + x’i,tβ + νi,t ------------------------(10) where δyi,t denotes log difference of income per capita in period t, yi,t-1 is the log initial income, xi,t is a vector of potential determinants of growth and vi,t is the residual error component. x’i,t = ivtα1, agrtα2, mfrtα3, sevtα4, spetα5 ------------------------(11) where ivt is investment, agrt is the share of agriculture contribution to gdp (agricultural value added), mfrt is the share of the manufacturing sector to gdp (manufacturing value added), sevt is the share of the service sector to gdp (services value added), and spet is the percentage share of primary export. logyi,t = α0 + α1logyi,t-1 + α2logivt + α3logagrt + α4logmfrt + α5logsevt + α6logspet+ vt -----------------------(12) it is hypothesized that the estimates α1, α2, α3, α4, α5, α6, α7 are positive and statistically significant but a greater magnitude is expected from α4, α5 in order to appropriately validate the bases of the research. ho: α1, α2, α3, α4, α5 = 0 h1: α1, α2, α3, α4, α5 > 0 3.3 econometric approach the study relies on secondary data; the 3 three member states of ecowas including benin, ghana, and nigeria. the required data set on the variables to be tested in the models adapted for the study were drawn from these countries. in performing the empirical analysis, the first step is to examine the time series properties of all the variables. for proper model specification, the unit root and co-integration test shall be conducted. the augmented dickey-fuller (adf) root tests for determining variables orders of integration shall be presented. the test for the order of stationary has led to the development of the dickeyfuller (1979) set of unit root tests. we test the null hypothesis of a difference stationary against the alternative hypothesis of a level stationary. that is: h0: yt = i(1) h1: yt =i(0) with critical values which are all negative and larger (in absolute terms) than adf statistics; if the null hypothesis cannot be rejected then yt cannot be stationary. it may be i(1) or i(2) or have an even higher order of integration. the test for unit root is pertinent because it has been observed that, very often time series data are non-stationary. in such cases, the residuals of these time series are correlated with their own lagged values, thereby violating one of the standard ordinary least square assumptions; hereby making estimates biased and inconsistent with standard errors generally underestimated. copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | afbr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 26 in determining the long-run relationship of the variables, the study shall adopt a co-integration test based on the approach of johansen (1988) and juselius (1990) for testing the long-run dynamic behaviour of variables under study. the vector error correction model shall be adopted for testing the short-run dynamics and guarantee successful correction of errors generated in each period within the model, the johansen procedure unlike the engel and granger two steps static procedure allows the simultaneous evaluation of multiple relationships and imposes no prior restrictions on the co-integration space. from the foregoing econometrical analyses, it is established that before regression analysis of equation model can be made, it is essential to identify the order of integration of each time series provided that the variable can be transformed into a stationary variable through differencing, concerning the dynamic growth model in equation above which is rewritten below. log(y) = α0 + φlog(eci) + βlog(edi) the differenced model can be written as log(dy) = α0 + φlog(dedi) + βlog(deci) most studies assume that time series data are stationary. however, it has been argued that this assumption is not appropriate for most economic variables and that these variables are better modeled as integrated of order one i(1) processes, that is, non-stationary and needs to be differenced once to become stationary. a non-stationary series can be reviewed as a testable hypothesis by performing unit root test. a test for unit root has its origin in the work of fuller (1976) and dickey and fuller (1979, 1981). the theory of co-integration arises out of the need to ensure the long run equilibrium or relationship of the observed variables. the theoretical stages involved are as follows. 3.4 testing for the order of the integration of the series the test for the order of stationary has led to the development of the dickeyfuller (1979) set of unit root tests. we test the null hypothesis of a difference stationary against the alternative hypothesis of a level stationary. that is: h0: yt = i(1) h1: yt =i(0) with critical values which are all negative and larger (in absolute terms) than adf statistics; if the null hypothesis cannot be rejected then yt cannot be stationary. it may be i(1) or i(2) or have an even higher order of integration. 3.5 co-integration representation after determining the order of integration as established in the first stage, the second stage proceeds to obtain the cointegrating vector in the regression equation. this is conducted using the johansen procedure, the indication of one (unique) co-integrating vector at appropriate lag that ensure non serial correlation confirms the convergence of the estimated variables. 3.6 error correction modeling representation having established the long run series convergence, and that the variables are co-integrated, the third stage proceeds to estimate the error correction representation. the ecm incorporates the full (short run) dynamics of the model specified above. the theory of error correction model arises out of the need to integrate short run dynamics with long run equilibrium. at this stage all the conventional statistical tests of significance are considered to be appropriate including the diagnostic tests for the assessment of the adequacy of the model. co-integration is a necessary condition for error correction model to hold. the purpose of the ecm is to switch to a short run model. allowance is made for any short run divergence, in a corrective mechanism by which previous disequilibria in the relationship between the level of money balance and the level of one or more of its determinants, are permitted to affect the current change in money holdings. theory expects that the ecm be negative and highly significant implying that an error in the current period is being corrected in the previous period. in estimating the model two, a panel least square analytical procedure is attempted to sieve the effects of the trade composition indicators on per capita income. afterwards, the model estimated the country and period fixed effects. copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | afbr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 27 4. results 4.1 descriptive statistic descriptive statistics in this study considers important elements such as the mean, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis for the variables used in the study where the interaction of data are described as given thus. table 1 summary of descriptive statistics variables obs mean std. dev min max pexp 81 55.36 18.76 12.40 81.29 agdp 81 26.97 5.40 21.34 36.57 sgdp 81 45.39 6.31 35.91 54.36 msct 81 13.71 4.91 7.42 21.19 source: researchers computation, 2019 the above presented table 1 presents the summary of the descriptive statistics for the parameters used specifically agricultural produce as a percentage of gdp (agdp) is the dependent variable, while primary exports, service as a percentage of gross domestic product (sgdp), and main sector performance (msct) as the independent variables. primary export for the period of study and for the three countries namely benin republic, nigeria, and ghana has an average value of 55.36. the primary exports of these countries deviated by 18.76 while its minimum value stood at 12.40 and its maximum value stood at 81.29. agricultural produce as a percentage of gross domestic product has an average percentage of 26.97%, it was highest at 36.57%, lowest at 21.35%, and its standard deviation was 5.40%. service as a percentage of gross domestic product has an average value of 45.39%, its standard deviation stood at 6.31%, the maximum value is 54.36% and the minimum value is 35.91. the main sector performance has an average value of 13.71, it deviated by 4.91, the minimum value stood at 7.42, and the maximum value is 21.19. 4.2 correlation matrix table 2 shows the correlation values between the dependent and independent variable and covariance matrix (amongst themselves). correlation matrix depicts the level of association between and among all pairs of variables given the level of significance. table 2 correlation matrix variables pexp agdp sgdp msct pexp 1.0000 agdp 0.2567 1.0000 sgdp -0.1225 0.7024 1.0000 msct 0.1043 -0.7450 -0.9862 1.0000 source: researchers computation, 2019 from the presented result, primary exports have a positive but weak association with agricultural produce as a percentage of gross domestic products. this implies that as the level of agricultural produce increases, primary exports also increase. the correlation coefficient between primary exports and service as a percentage of gross domestic products is -0.1225. this implies that there is a negative and weak correlation between primary exports and service as a percentage of gdp. invariably, it can be said that the level of primary exports may not be related with the service sector, thus, the association is expected. the main sector performance is found to be positively correlated with the primary exports in the selected ecowas countries. it therefore means that primary export is expected to move in the same direction in which the main sector performance moves. although the correlation is found to be weak but it is a positive correlation. agricultural produce as a percentage of gdp is found to be positively correlated with service sector as a percentage of gdp. this may be explained as seeing more expertise in the agricultural sector due to the involvement of technical know-how of those in the service sector. the correlation coefficient between agricultural gross domestic product and service as a percentage of gdp stood at 0.7024. a negative correlation and strong one is found to exist between agriculture as a percentage of gdp and the main sector performance. the correlation coefficient is found to be -0.7450 implying that as one variable increases, the other is on the decrease. a negative and strong correlation coefficient is found between the service sector as a percentage of gdp and main sector performance in the selected ecowas countries. the correlation coefficient stood at -0.9862 implying that the main sector performance would reduce should the service sector performance as a percentage of gdp increases. copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | afbr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 28 4.3 pre-test statistics 4.3.1 panel data unit root test table 3 below shows the summary of the panel data unit root analysis using the levin, lin and chu method at level and first difference. the result of this method is also backed up by the result of the augmented dickey fuller (adf) method as well as the phillip perron (pp) method. table 3 summary of panel unit root at level var t-test p-val pexp 0.02341 0.5093 agdp -0.53009 0.2980 sgdp -0.44049 0.3298 msct -0.37367 0.3543 source: researcher computation (2019) table 4 panel unit root at first difference var t-test p-val remarks pexp -1.73730 0.0412 i(1) agdp -5.77450 0.0000 i(1) sgdp -3.87605 0.0001 i(1) msct -5.88380 0.0000 i(1) source: researcher computation (2019) from the result of the panel data unit root reported in the above table, it was discovered that all the variables are stationary at first difference. as such, the stationary level of the variables is employed in the analysis of the study. the pooled ordinary least square, fixed effect and random effect will be examined at first difference in order to avoid or correct the likely problem of autocorrelation which may occur while using the variables even while they are not stationary. 4.3.2 hausman specification test table 5 summarized the hausman specification test for random effect. test summary chi-sq. statistic chi-sq. d.f. prob. period random 1.531497 3 0.6750 ** warning: estimated period random effects variance is zero. period random effects test comparisons variable fixed random var(diff.) prob. d(msct) -1.248366 -1.207472 0.012895 0.7188 d(pexp) 0.054854 0.030956 0.000482 0.2762 d(sgdp) -0.446702 -0.432045 0.000760 0.5951 source: researcher computation (2019) the hausman specification test is conducted to select between the fixed effect and random effect. the null hypothesis is that random effect is appropriate while the alternative hypothesis states that fixed effect is appropriate. from the result of the hausman test, the probability value is 0.6750 which signifies that the test is not significant at 5% level of significance. therefore, the study makes use of the random effect because the test tells that the random effect is appropriate since the test is not significant at 5%. the pooled regression result is summarized in table 6 below. this result will assist in empirically verifying the first hypothesis of the study. the first hypothesis states that exports and imports have no significant impact on trade performance in ecowas countries. table 6 summary of pooled ols result variable coefficient std. error t-statistic prob. c -0.207084 0.248105 -0.834665 0.4068 d(msct) -1.244974 0.192367 -6.471874 0.0000 d(pexp) 0.054640 0.034682 1.575438 0.1197 copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | afbr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 29 d(sgdp) -0.443001 0.055950 -7.917787 0.0000 effects specification cross-section fixed (dummy variables) period fixed (dummy variables) r-squared 0.693244 mean dependent var 0.486876 adjusted r-squared 0.510969 s.d. dependent var 3.711734 s.e. of regression 2.595643 akaike info criterion 5.026878 sum squared resid 464.8779 schwarz criterion 6.052106 log likelihood -236.9918 hannan-quinn criter. 5.442783 f-statistic 3.803285 durbin-watson stat 1.931303 prob(f-statistic) 0.000001 source: researcher computation (2019) the result of the pooled ordinary least square above depicts that main sector and service sector performance as a percentage of gdp are found to be significant factors that influence the level of trade performance in the ecowas countries. main sector performance is found to exert a negative relationship with trade performance in the selected ecowas countries with a coefficient of -1.24, implying that as main sector performance increases by one percent, trade performance reduces by 1.24 percent. also, service sector performance as a percentage of gdp is found to be negatively related with trade performance in the selected ecowas countries. this implies that a percentage increase in the performance of the service sector will lead to a 0.44 percent decrease in trade performance in the ecowas countries. the study therefore rejects the first hypothesis that states that there are no significant determinants of trade performance in the ecowas countries as the main sector performance as well as the service sector performance are found to be significant factor that influences trade performance in the selected ecowas countries. furthermore, in achieving the second and third objectives of the study, the fixed effect result of the ordinary least square is presented below. table 7 summary of the random effect ols variable coefficient std. error t-statistic prob. c -0.219775 0.245051 -0.896854 0.3718 d(msct) -1.207472 0.152748 -7.905006 0.0000 d(agdp) 0.030956 0.026356 1.174554 0.2428 d(sgdp) -0.432045 0.047518 -9.092210 0.0000 effects specification s.d. rho period random 0.000000 0.0000 idiosyncratic random 2.568947 1.0000 weighted statistics r-squared 0.542008 mean dependent var 0.486876 adjusted r-squared 0.529167 s.d. dependent var 3.711734 s.e. of regression 2.546890 sum squared resid 694.0716 f-statistic 42.20950 durbin-watson stat 1.952857 prob(f-statistic) 0.000000 source: researcher computation (2019) the second hypothesis of the study states that there is no significant impact of the determinants of trade performance on exports performance in the selected ecowas countries. the result presented in table 7 above indicates that main sector performance and service sector performance influence export performance in the selected ecowas countries. copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | afbr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 30 main sector is found to influence exports performance in these selected countries negatively such that a percentage change in the performance of the main sector will lead to a decrease in export performance by 1.20 percent. the study found an indirect and significant relationship between main sector performance and export performance in the selected ecowas countries. it was also discovered in the result of the random effect ols above that primary export does not significantly influence the performance of exports in the selected ecowas countries. this however does not follow theoretical backings. there is a positive relationship but the relationship is found to be insignificant and as such, the effect of primary exports on export performance can be disregarded. furthermore, it was discovered in the study that service sector performance as a percentage of gdp influences a negative effect on exports performance in the selected ecowas countries such that a percentage increase in the service sector performance as a percentage of gdp will lead to a 0.43 percentage decrease in export performance. 4.4 coefficient of determination (r2) the coefficient of determination is used to measure the strength of the relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables. it measures the extent to which variations in the independent variables explain the variations in the dependent variable. from the result of the test above, the coefficient of determination is found to be 0.542008 implying that 54.20 percent of the variations in the export performance is explained by variations in main sector performance, primary exports, and service sector as a percentage of gdp while the remaining 44.80 percentage are explained by factors which are not included in the model. 4.5 f-statistics the f-statistics is used to measure the joint significance of the independent variables on the dependent variable. the f-statistics value of the study stood at 42.20950 with probability of 0.0000 implying that the independent variables significantly influence the performance of exports in the selected ecowas countries. it therefore implies that main sector as a percentage of gdp, primary exports and service sector as a percentage of gdp jointly have significant influence on export performance in the selected ecowas countries. 4.6 residual test 4.6.1 durbin watson test the durbin watson test is used to understand if there is the problem of autocorrelation in the residuals of the variables employed in the study. the dw value of the result is 1.952857. using the rule of thumb, the study can be said to be free from the problem of autocorrelation since the dw value is very close to 2. another proof is that the dw value is greater than the r2 value, therefore it can be said that the model is free from the problem of autocorrelation. 4.6.2 normality test and stability of the model figure 1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 series: standardized residuals sample 1981 2017 observations 111 mean 0.000000 median 0.210791 maximum 8.692923 minimum -11.39175 std. dev. 2.511920 skewness -1.154540 kurtosis 10.48012 jarque-bera 283.4388 probability 0.000000 source: author computation (2019) the jarque-bera test is used to check for the normality of the variables and also the stability of the model. the jarque-bera value is 283.4388 with the probability value of 0.0000. the null hypothesis is that the variables are not normally distributed. the null hypothesis is therefore rejected since the test is significant at 5% level of significance and thus it can be concluded that the model is normally distributed. copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | afbr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 31 5. discussion and implications of findings the study has looked at the determinants of exports and imports in some selected ecowas countries. the selected ecowas countries are benin, ghana, and nigeria. the study revealed that the activities of the main sector when rated as a percentage of the gross domestic product is a significant factor that influences the exports and imports in these selected countries. this means that the activities done in the main sector of these economies have significant effect on the value of exports and imports. the activity of the main sector is huge and voluminous enough to accommodate some level of significant imports in order to assist production which will also be exported. the study has also revealed that the service sector is also a significant factor that influences the exports and imports of these selected ecowas countries. many experts are imported into the service sector of these countries and thus these served as a significant factor that possess influence on the performance of exports and imports in the countries. the study also revealed that the primary export is not significant enough to influence the level of imports and exports in the selected ecowas countries. this finding is against the findings of aissata, siba and hady (2018); santos-paulino (2000) which found that potential trade was significant in the european union and that exports react negatively to an increase in relative prices. 5. conclusion in this study, an attempt was made to determine the effect of trade diversification on economic growth of ecowas countries. west african countries are growing at a satisfactory rate, but it does not change the fact that many are not only on a less developed countries status, still fail to diversify to promote a more inclusive growth. africa is still lagging when it comes to regional, trade integration and seems to rely more on the rest of the world than their closest neighbors. policies with new approaches and techniques tailored to the african market must be enacted and implemented to drift away from superficial cooperation agreements of simple deregulation and trade liberalization and dive into deeper levels of integration. in order to do so, regional and trade integration should be a priority. main sector performance is found to exert a negative relationship with trade performance in the selected ecowas countries with a coefficient of -1.24, implying that as main sector performance increases by one percent, trade performance reduces by 1.24 percent. also, service sector performance as a percentage of gdp is found to be negatively related with trade performance in the selected ecowas countries. this implies that a percentage increase in the performance of the service sector will lead to a 0.44 percent decrease in trade performance in the ecowas countries. the study therefore rejects the first hypothesis that states that there are no significant determinants of trade performance in the ecowas countries as the main sector performance as well as the service sector performance are found to be significant factor that influences trade performance in the selected ecowas countries. based on the findings in this study, the following recommendations are suggested; (1) there is urgent need for ecowas states to place more emphasis on the exports of manufacturers’ products and make efforts to reduce concentration on exports of primary (agriculture and fuel) products. this will help improve their international trade performance especially with respect to reducing term of trade losses and unfavourable shocks in foreign earnings. (2) also, the region should focus on production of products for domestic need; in doing this, the ecowas states will escape the trap of homogenous export and foster more intra-trade links. the region should see production as major objective rather than exports; this enhances industrial activities and innovations in the region. this attempt retains economic gains of resource within the region and foster economic well-being, the critical mass of ecowas challenge is weak productive capacity, this has accentuated the progress of the member states and the sole cause of social and economic evils within the region. ecowas should see exports as originating from domestic sufficiency. (3) ecowas needs to concentrate efforts on exports of commodities that attract more stable earnings by increasing the value-added of its major exports and encouraging investment into viable sectors. continue dependence on primary commodities would only diverge the region from achieving stationary stage of income and perpetually place the region in income trap; concentration of efforts on quick supply response and highly dynamic products which attract higher price in the international market would revive the economies of the region. (4) also, the region should attempt a horizontal diversification in the short-run by expanding the variety of usefulness of its export basket. for instance, products such as cocoa, crude, coffee etc can be processed into their various useful-ness before exporting rather than exporting in crude form. industries should be developed to explore and handle several components of these products. crude for instance, at processing stage can be sieved into several components such as gases, kerosene, diesel, motor oil, petroleum jelly, etc; this implies that several industries can be developed from crude resource. (5) the ecowas member states should concentrate on mass injection of capital investment in viable copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | afbr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 32 sectors of their economies, the region should invest heavily in developing sectors that are capable of generating spill-over and export discovery that would enhance comparative advantage along a new export cluster and facilitate the emergence of new exports. this would accentuate the level of human capital utilization, societal advancement and global trade penetration of the region. 6. references aron, j., elbadawi, i. and khan, b. (1997). determinants of real exchange rate in south africa. working paper for centre for studies of african economics and statistics, oxford university, 16, 45–62. aliyu, s. r.(2011). impact of oil price shock and exchange rate volatility on economic growth in nigeria: an empirical investigation. research journal of international studies,4(11),220-231. aliyu, s., yakub, m., sanni, g., and duke, o. (2013). exchange rate pass-through in nigeria : evidence from a vector error correction model. econpaper, 1071–1084. bundesbank, d. (2010). nominal and real exchange rate movements during the financial crisis. deutsche bundesbank monthly report, (july), 39–55. bahmani-oskooee, m. (1991). is there a long-run relation between the trade balance and the real effective exchange rate of ldcs? economics letters, 36, 403–407. bahmani-oskooeem, economidou c, and goswami g, g., (2005). export-led growth hypothesis revisited: a panel cointegration approach. scientific journal of administrative development 3:40–55. choudhri, e. and schembri, l. (2014). productivity, commodity prices and the real exchange rate: the long-run behavior of the canada–us exchange rate. international review of economics & finance, 29, 537–551. gbesola, a. and garba, t. (2014). trend of the nigeria exchange rate from 1970-2013 (pp.32–43). idika, k.u. (1998). nigeria foreign exchange markets. management and development. spectrum book ltd. ibadan. nigeria international monetary fund (1984). exchange rate variability and world trade, imf occasional paper 28 martin, w., 2001. “trade policies, developing countries and globalization”. development research group. washington dc: world bank. mordi, c. n. (2006). challenges of exchange rate volatility in economics management in nigeria. central bank of nigeria bullion. 30(3) mahmood, i. & ali, s. z. (2011). impact of exchange rate volatility on macroeconomic performance of pakistan, international research journal of finance and economics, issue 64. pp. 1450-2887. medina-smith, e. j. 2001. “is the export led growth hy-pothesis valid for the developing countries? a case study for costa rica,” policy issues in international trade and commodities, study series number 7, united nations con-ference on trade and development. tarawalie, a. b., sissoho, m., conte, m., and ahortor, c. r. (2012). exchange rate, inflation and macroeconomic performance in the west african monetary zone (wamz). wami occasional paper series no. 2 copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. this is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). american economic & social review vol. 7, no. 1; 2021 issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 published by cribfb, usa 25 differences in exclusionary discipline consequence assignment by the economic status of black students determined to be at-risk: a texas, statewide analysis candace m. pohl doctoral student department of educational leadership sam houston state university, usa e-mail: stdcmr14@shsu.edu dr. john r. slate professor department of educational leadership sam houston state university, usa e-mail: jrs051@shsu.edu abstract this study was conducted to determine the degree to which economic status was related to discipline alternative education program placement assignments for grades 8 and 9 black boys and black girls who were at-risk during the 2017-2018 school year. inferential statistical analyses of texas statewide data revealed the presence of statistically significant differences in the number of discipline alternative education program placement assignments by the economic status of black boys and black girls at both grade levels. grades 8 and 9 black boys and girls who were at-risk and who were economically disadvantaged were assigned to statistically significantly more of these exclusionary discipline consequences than their counterparts who were not economically disadvantaged. grade 8 black boys who were economically disadvantaged were assigned to these exclusionary discipline consequences two times more often than grade 8 black boys who were not economically disadvantaged. grade 8 black girls who were economically disadvantaged were assigned to these exclusionary discipline consequences two-thirds more often than grade 8 black girls who were not economically disadvantaged. grade 9 black boys and black girls who were economically disadvantaged were assigned these exclusionary discipline consequences one-third more often than their non-economically disadvantaged peers. implications and recommendations for future research were discussed. keywords: discipline alternative education program placement, economic status, discipline consequences, economically disadvantaged, at-risk, exclusionary discipline, ethnicity/race. introduction differences in exclusionary discipline consequence assignment by the economic status of black students determined to be at-risk: a texas, statewide analysis for students to achieve academic and social success, educational environments must be inclusive and equitable. students of color and students in poverty have historically suffered in traditional educational environments that lack appropriate policies to support them in academics and their social-emotional development. in addition, many students of color and students who are https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 7, no. 1; 2021 26 economically disadvantaged may also be identified as at-risk of dropping out of high school (rumberger, 2011). although school systems continue to use various methods of discipline practice such as in-school suspension and expulsion, it is important to identify any disparities that might be present in discipline practices. evidence of any inequities could then be used to establish and implement appropriate and equitable policies. in preparation for future academic and socialemotional student success, any inequity issues must be resolved. researchers (bottiani, bradshaw, & mendelson, 2016; hilberth & slate, 2012; hirschfield, 2018; skiba, arredondo, & williams, 2014; skiba et al., 2011; slate, gray, & jones, 2016; welsh & little, 2018) have demonstrated the presence of negative consequences that are associated with exclusionary discipline practices such as a lack of connectedness to school, a decrease in their sense of belonging, repeated delinquency, academic gaps, and dropping out of high school. in the state of texas, 14 criteria exist to determine whether students are at-risk for dropping out of high school. these criteria range from low academic achievement and grade retention to pregnancy and discipline placements. readers are directed to the texas education code website (https://statutes.capitol.texas.gov/docs/ed/htm/ed.29.htm#29.081) for the complete list of criteria. of note to readers are two identifiers that are not included in the texas at-risk criteria: (a) students of color and (b) students who are economically disadvantaged. the transition from middle school to high school can be a tumultuous experience and students who have a history of problematic behavior may find this transition to be especially difficult (mccallumore & sparapani, 2010; neild, 2009; queen, 2002). black boys who are economically disadvantaged appear to have the most difficult time transitioning from middle school to high school, possibly due to a lack of support structures, low academic preparation, and behavioral problems (queen, 2002). neild (2009) described the transition from middle school to high school as an important predictor of successful high school graduation. for students who are already considered at-risk, a smooth transition becomes increasingly important as a successful ninth grade year can provide a strong foundation for the remainder of a student’s high school years (mccallumore & sparapani, 2010; neild, 2009; queen, 2002). a plethora of research investigations exist in which inequities have been documented in the assignment of discipline consequences to students of color (bottiani et al., 2016; bradshaw et al., 2010; hilberth & slate, 2012; skiba et al., 2011;waller & waller, 2014). the continued use of exclusionary discipline consequences, specifically for students with special needs may negatively affect their educational opportunities. of importance to the reader should be the large number of repeated discipline alternative education program placements to students who have previously been identified as being at-risk of dropping out of high school, are students of color, and/or are economically disadvantaged. statement of the problem school district leaders use discipline alternative education program placements, an exclusionary discipline consequence, for serious student misbehavior. according to the texas education agency public education information management system discipline data for the 2018-2019 school year, the number of students who were assigned to a discipline alternative education program placement was 80,815 students. of this more than 80,000 cases, 76,523 were members of ethnic/racial groups other than white; 63,256 were economically disadvantaged; and 62,877 students were determined to be atrisk. despite the abundance of literature on the disproportionate disparities in the assignment of exclusionary discipline consequences to students of color and to students from poverty (skiba et al., 2011; slateet al., 2016; waller &waller,2014),a shortage of research studies are available on exclusionary discipline consequences for students who are labeled as being at-risk. even fewer published research articles could be located regarding the discipline alternative education program placements of students of color who were economically disadvantaged and students of color who were https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 7, no. 1; 2021 27 labeled as being at-risk. as such, the degree to which multiple student characteristics are related to disciplinary consequence assignments is largely unknown and merits investigation. purpose of the study four purposes are present in this empirical, statewide investigation. the first purpose of this study was to determine the degree to which economic status was related to an assignment to a discipline alternative education program placement for grade 8 black boys who were at-risk. the second purpose of this study was to ascertain the extent to which economic status was related to an assignment to a discipline alternative education program placement for grade 8 black girls who were at-risk. the third purpose of this study was to determine the degree to which economic status was related to an assignment to a discipline alternative education program placement for grade 9 black boys who were at-risk. the final purpose of this study was to ascertain the extent to which economic status was related to an assignment to a discipline alternative education program placement for grade 9 black girls who were at-risk. research questions the following research questions were addressed in this study: (a) what is the difference in assignment to a disciplinary alternative education program placement by the economic status of grade 8 black boys determined to be at-risk?;(b)what is the difference in assignment to a disciplinary alternative education program placement by the economic status of grade 9 black boys determined to be at-risk?; (c) what is the difference in assignment to a disciplinary alternative education program placement by the economic status of grade 8 black girls determined to be at-risk?; and (d)what is the difference in assignment to a disciplinary alternative education program placement by the economic status of grade 9 black girls determined to be at-risk? significance of the study this study was conducted to add to the existing research literature available on inequities in discipline consequences. numerous studies have been conducted on the inequities in discipline consequences (hilberth & slate, 2012; skiba et al., 2011; waller & waller, 2014). few researchers, however, have examined discipline consequences among students who are already determined to be at-risk. stakeholders who could benefit from the information in this study include policymakers and education leaders such as school district administration and campus leaders. method research design a causal-comparative research design (johnson & christensen, 2012) was used. in this study, one independent variable was present: economic status. the dependent variable was number of discipline alternative education program placements for grade 8 and 9 black boys and black girls who were at-risk in the 2017-2018 school year. the advantage of using a causal-comparative research design was the ability to analyze archival, pre-existing data from the texas education agency public education information management system. participation and instrumentation participants in this study were grades 8 and 9 black boys and black girls who were economically disadvantaged, at-risk, and had been assigned to a discipline alternative education program placement setting during the 2017-2018 school year. in grade 8, 1,016 black boys and 494 black girls had been assigned a discipline alternative education program placement. with respect to grade 9, 1,547 black boys and 740 black girls had been assigned a discipline alternative education program placement. the discipline data for this study were obtained through a public information https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 7, no. 1; 2021 28 request to the texas education agency’s public education information management system. data were then imported into the statistical package for social sciences software program for analysis on. results to ascertain whether economic status was related to discipline alternative education program placement assignments for grade 8 and grade 9 black boys and girls who were at-risk, pearson chisquare analyses were conducted. this statistical procedure was viewed as the optimal statistical procedure to use because frequency data were present for economic status and for disciplinary consequence assignments. as such, chi-squares are the statistical procedure of choice when both variables in each research question are categorical (slate & rojas-lebouef, 2011). in addition, with the large sample size, the available sample size per cell was more than five. therefore, the assumptions for using a pearson chi-square procedure were met. for the first research question on the effect of economic status on discipline alternative education program placements for grade 8 black boys, the result was statistically significant, χ2(1) = 28.413, p< .001. the effect size for this finding, cramer’s v, was below small, .07 (cohen, 1988). as revealed in table 1, almost half as many grade 8 black boys who were economically disadvantaged were assigned to a discipline alternative education program placement than were grade 8 black boys who were not economically disadvantaged. depicted in figure 1 are the percentages of discipline alternative education program placement assignments of grade 8 black boys by their economic status. table 1. descriptive statistics descriptive statistics of discipline alternative education program placements by the economic status of grade 8 black boys assigned not assigned economic status n percent n percent economically disadvantaged 1,016 18.2% 4,557 81.8% not economically disadvantaged 127 11.5% 927 88.5% figure 1. percentage of grade 8 black boys and their discipline alternative education program placements by economic status. for the second research question on the effect of economic status on discipline alternative education program placements for grade 9 black boys, the result was statistically significant, χ2(1) = 19.326, p< .001. the effect size for this finding, cramer’s v, was below small, .05 (cohen, 1988). as delineated in table 2 and depicted in figure 2, more than one-third more grade 9 black boys who were economically disadvantaged were assigned to a discipline alternative education program placement than were grade 9 black boys who were not economically disadvantaged. 18.20% 11.50% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00% 18.00% 20.00% disadvantaged not-disadvantaged discipline alternative education program placements https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 7, no. 1; 2021 29 table 2. descriptive statistics of discipline alternative education program placements by the economic status of grade 9 black boys assigned not assigned economic status n percent n percent economically disadvantaged 1,547 24.5% 4,757 75.5% not economically disadvantaged 253 18.9% 1,084 81.1% figure 2. percentage of grade 9 black boys and their discipline alternative education program placements by economic status. for the third research question on the effect of economic status on discipline alternative education program placements for grade 8 black girls, a statistically significant difference was yielded, χ2(1) = 12.933, p< .001. the effect size for this finding, cramer’s v, was below small, .06 (cohen, 1988). as presented in table 3, more than two-thirds as many grade 8 black girls who were economically disadvantaged were assigned to a discipline alternative education program placement than were grade 8 black girls who were not economically disadvantaged. shown in figure 3 are the percentages of discipline alternative education program placement assignments of grade 8 black girls by their economic status. table 3. descriptive statistics of discipline alternative education program placements by the economic status of grade 8 black girls assigned not assigned economic status n percent n percent economically disadvantaged 494 15.1% 2,786 84.9% not economically disadvantaged 45 9.0% 454 91.0% figure 3. percentage of grade 8 black girls and their discipline alternative education program placements by economic status. 24.50% 18.90% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% disadvantaged not-disadvantaged discipline alternative education program placements 15.10% 9.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% disadvantaged not-disadvantaged discipline alternative education program placements https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 7, no. 1; 2021 30 for the fourth research question on the effect of economic status on discipline alternative education program placements for grade 9 black girls, a statistically significant difference was revealed, χ2(1) = 7.830p< .005. the effect size for this finding, cramer’s v, was below small, .04 (cohen, 1988). about a third more grade 9 black girls who were economically disadvantaged were assigned to a discipline alternative education program placement than were grade 9 black girls who were not economically disadvantaged. table 4 contains the descriptive statistics for this analysis. presented in figure 4 are the percentages of discipline alternative education program placement assignments of grade 9 black girls by their economic status. table 4. descriptive statistics of discipline alternative education program placements by the economic status of grade 9 black girls assigned not assigned economic status n percent n percent economically disadvantaged 740 18.8% 3,206 81.2% not economically disadvantaged 101 14.3% 603 85.7% figure 4. percentage of grade 9 black girls and their discipline alternative education program placements by economic status. discussion in this study, the degree to which differences were present in discipline alternative education program placements by the economic status of grades 8 and 9 black boys and black girls who were at-risk was addressed. for all four research questions, statistically significant differences were established in the number of discipline alternative education program placements of grades 8 and 9 black boys and black girls who were at-risk by their economic status. over 1,000 grade 8 black boys who were economically disadvantaged and who were at-risk were assigned to a discipline alternative education program placement compared to only 127 grade 8 black boys who were not economically disadvantaged and who were at-risk. this pattern was replicated for grade 9 black boys as well with 1,547 grade 9 black boys who were economically disadvantaged and at-risk who were assigned to a discipline alternative education program placement compared to only 253 grade 9 black boys who were not economically disadvantaged and who were at-risk. with respect to grade 8 black girls who were economically disadvantaged and who were atrisk, almost 500were assigned to a discipline alternative education program placement compared to less than 50 grade 8 black girls who were not economically disadvantaged and who were at-risk. similarly, 740 grade 9 black girls who were economically disadvantaged and who were at-risk were assigned to a discipline alternative education program placement compared to 101 grade 9 black girls who were not economically disadvantaged and who were at-risk. readers should note, for both 18.80% 14.30% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00% 18.00% 20.00% disadvantaged not-disadvantaged discipline alternative education program placements https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 7, no. 1; 2021 31 black boys and girls, assignments to a discipline alternative education program increased from grade 8 to grade 9. this increase could be linked to the transition that occurs between middle school and high school. clear evidence was obtained that the economic status of grades 8 and 9 black boys and girls was related to their assignment to this exclusionary discipline consequence. results from this study are congruent with the findings from previous research. waller and waller (2014) investigated the relationship of variables including race, at-risk status, and economic status, to placements in an alternative education setting. students who were at-risk and black students had a higher probability of receiving an alternative education placement than their peers. hilberth and slate (2012) analyzed disciplinary consequences assigned to black and white students in grades 6, 7, and 8 and concluded that black students received more in-school suspensions, out-of-school suspensions, and assignments to a disciplinary alternative education program placement statistically significantly more than white students. similarly, lopez and slate (2020) investigated the relationship between ethnicity/race and disciplinary alternative education program placement assignments in grades 6, 7, and 8 for boys in four school years. at all grade levels for each year, black boys were assigned to disciplinary alternative education program placements at statistically significant higher rates than their peers. implications for policy and for practice from the findings of this study, several implications for policy and for practice are present. policymakers are encouraged to evaluate discipline procedures for school districts that do not discriminate. policymakers are also encouraged to provide discipline consequences that do not result in removing students from their instructional environment. educational leaders should investigate their disciplinary procedures to determine the extent that this study is applicable to their school districts and campuses. educational leaders should provide disciplinary consequences that are not exclusionary, instead consider a restorative approach. recommendations for future research based upon the results of this investigation, several recommendations are possible for future research. as only discipline alternative education program placements were examined in this investigation, researchers are encouraged to extend this study to other exclusionary discipline consequences such as out-of-school suspensions. researchers could also replicate this study with other grade levels, as only data on grades 8 and 9 students were analyzed herein. researchers could extend this study to include the ethnicity/race of other students. finally, researchers could investigate how students who are atrisk may be more susceptible to exclusionary discipline practices than students who are not at-risk and determine the contribution of specific at-risk factors to higher rates of exclusionary discipline assignments. conclusion in conclusion, the economic status of grade 8 and 9 black boys and black girls who were at risk had a clear and demonstrable relationship to their assignment to a discipline alternative education program placement. grade 8 black boys who were economically disadvantaged and at-risk had almost twice as many discipline alternative education program placements when compared to grade 8 black boys who were not economically disadvantaged. grade 8 black girls who were economically disadvantaged and at-risk had over two-thirds more placements than grade 8 black girls who were not economically disadvantaged. in addition, grade 9 black boys and black girls who were economically disadvantaged and at-risk had one-third more discipline alternative education program placements when compared to black boys and black girls who were not economically disadvantaged. based on this texas statewide analysis, it is obvious that the economic status of grade 8 and 9 black boys and black girls who were at-risk is clearly related to their discipline alternative education program placements. https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 7, no. 1; 2021 32 references bottiani, j. h., bradshaw, c. p., & mendelson, t. 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(2011). calculating basic statistical procedures in spss: a selfhelp and practical guide to preparing theses, dissertations, and manuscripts. ypsilanti, mi: ncpea press. waller, s. k. & waller, l. r. (2014). alternative discipline placements in texas. the global elearning journal, 3(1). welsh, r. o., & little, s. (2018). the school discipline dilemma: a comprehensive review of disparities and alternative approaches. review of educational research, 88(5), 752-794. https://doi.org/10.3102/0034654318791582 copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. this is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0) https://doi.org/10.46281/aesr.v7i1.1030 https://doi.org/10.7709/jnegroeducation.85.3.0250 https://doi.org/10.46281/aesr.v7i1.1030 copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr american economic & social review; vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 published by centre for research on islamic banking & finance and business, usa 21 naira exchange rate variation and nigeria economic growth: a time series study rev canon charles ugochukwu okoro, m.sc. department of accountancy ken saro-wiwa polytechnic, bori rivers state, nigeria e-mail:cuokro50@gmail.com mrs. fortune bella charles, m.sc. department of banking and finance rivers state university, nkpolu oroworukwo, port harcourt rivers state, nigeria abstract this study examined the effect of exchange rate variation on nigeria economy. the objective was to investigate how naira exchange rate variations against key currencies affect the country’s real gross domestic product. time series data was sourced from central bank of nigeria statistical bulletin. real gross domestic products were modeled as the function of united state commodity currency, british commodity currency, japanese yen currency, chinese yen currency and french franc currency. the ordinary least square method was used as data analysis techniques. the study used cointegration, unit root, and granger causality test and error correction estimate to study the dynamic effects of commodity currencies on financial market. the study found that naira exchange rate variation with the currencies can explain 65 percent variation on nigerian real gross domestic products while the remaining 35 percent estimation can be traced to external variables not included in the model. the estimated f-test proved that the model is fit while the estimated dw statistics found the presence of positive serial autocorrelation among the variables. the estimated beta coefficient of the variables revealed that commodity currency of us; japanese yen and chinese yen have positive and significant effect on nigeria real gross domestic products while british pound and french franc have negative effect on nigeria real gross domestic products. from the co-integration test, we found at least two co-integrating equation from the trace test and maximum eigenvalue. the granger causality test found unidirectional causality from real gross domestic products to chinese yen and from french franc to real gross domestic products. the study found that in the long run, japanese and chinese yen and french franc have negative long run effect on nigeria real gross domestic products; while united states dollar and british pound sterling have positive long run effect on nigeria gross domestic products. the study recommended amongst others that monetary and macroeconomic policies should be properly articulated with an impregnable feedback loop, implemented to the letter, and a quarterly examination of the impact on the naira should be regularly engaged, evaluated, interpreted and ensure that the results and possible remedial action(s) get to the appropriate authority timeously so as to ensure well informed decision(s). keywords: naira exchange rate, nigeria economic growth, us dollar, british pound sterling, japanese yen 1. introduction the opinion that exchange rate management can be used to influence nigeria macroeconomic performance can be traced back to 1960 when the country became politically independent, even though the central bank of nigeria and the federal ministry of finance had come into being two years earlier. ogiogio (1996) stated that the management of exchange rate can be traced to two divisions/phases; pre-structural adjustment era of 1960-1985 and post-structural adjustment era 1986 till date. central bank of nigeria act 1959 as amended empowered cbn to safeguard the international value of nigeria currency, by formulating exchange rate policies that will enhance the realization of macroeconomic goals. nusrate (2008) stated that the exchange rate is one of the most important policy variables, which determines the trade flows, capital flows, foreign direct investment, inflation, international reserve and steady economic growth. many economies, especially african countries faced crisis in 1990s due to miss application and bad choice of exchange rate regime. however, there is no consensus in the theoretical or empirical literature about any unique effect of the exchange rate volatility on macroeconomic indicators. copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 22 the role of exchange rate in any economy is very significant as it directly and indirectly affects domestic price level, profitability of traded goods and services, allocation of resources and investment decisions. exchange rate movement and exchange rate uncertainty is an important factor which investors take into consideration in their decision to invest abroad (unugbro, 2007). foreign capital inflows are generally perceived as something desirable to the industrialized and developing countries. exchange rate variation increases the risk and the uncertainty of transactions (internally and externally) and predisposes a country to exchange rate related risks. in theory, it is generally agreed that exchange rate fluctuation affects output negatively or positively. according to aliyu, yakub, sanni, and duke, (2013); it is believed that the negative impact of exchange rate fluctuation may come directly through uncertainty and adjustment costs, and indirectly through its effect on allocation of resources and government policies. while adeniran, yusuf and adeyemi (2014) further informed that variation in exchange rate is an important factor that affects economic performance, due to its impact on macroeconomic variables like outputs, imports, export prices, interest rate and inflation rate. the persistent depreciation in naira exchange rate has led to a shortage of foreign exchange for the importation of the essential inputs for the industrial sector which has led to high costs of production in the country the nigerian government has formulated various exchange rate policies, for instance, fixed parity between the nigerian pound and the british pound (1960-1967), fixed parity between the nigerian pound and the american dollar (19671974), independent exchange rate policy (1974-1976); pegging the naira to an import-weighted basket of currencies (19761985), market determined exchange rate policy (1986 date). the nigerian fifth exchange rate management commenced during post-sap era up to date. the first market, sfem was established with immediate effect in september 26, 1986. the nigerian forex market was liberalized with the introduction of an autonomous foreign exchange market (afem) and the inter-bank foreign exchange market (ifem) in 1995 and 1999 respectively. the afem metamorphosed into a daily, two-way quote ifem in october 25, 1999. from 16 july 2002, cbn has replaced ifem with the dutch auction system (das) which has been in operation till date. despite these policies, nigeria naira continue to depreciate against key currencies and has this has affected the economy negatively. the general assumption on the relationship between flexible exchange rate and macroeconomic performance has been that if properly managed and integrated with macroeconomic objectives, it will enhance the realization of macroeconomic goals. however, this assumption is empirical tested and exemplified in the developed economy with greater openness and less import compared to the emerging economies like nigeria whose import is greater than the export which results in balance of payment deficit. umoru and odegba (2013) noted that if the exchange rate is not fixed, its behavior should depend on the behavior of the domestic interest relative to the foreign rate. the exact impact of a change in the policy rate is uncertain, because it depends again on the expectations on the interest rates and on domestic and foreign inflation. the relationship between exchange regimes and economic performance of the developing countries like nigeria has gone beyond theories and principles but focus on the reality of existing impact, for instance the adoption of flexible exchange rate during the structural adjustment programme (sap) and the depreciating naira exchange rate against key currencies is expected to affect nigerian economic performance which has not been captured in existing literature creating a knowledge gap. however, the relationship between exchange rate regime such as flexible exchange rate and economic performance has been a point of departure among scholars. for instance, the traditional school believe that volatility in exchange rate discourage trade while the portfolio theory believe that volatility in exchange rate creates risk that risk seekers would trade in the mist of volatile exchange rate for profitability objective. this ambiguity has remained unresolved in the emerging economy like nigeria that deserves investigation. nigeria over the years has signed multilateral and bilateral trade and investment treaties with various countries apart from united state of america. while there are many studies on the effect of exchange rate on nigeria economy, the studies focused on naira exchange rate against the united state dollar. the neglect of other currencies creates a knowledge gap which this study filled. 2. literature review 2.1 exchange rate volatility mundell (1968) has brilliantly set out the implications of financial flows and financial markets integration. he demonstrated that, with increasing capital mobility, monetary policy is constrained and sometimes inefficient under fixed exchange rates. the stock of money, which is endogenous, adjusts to the economy. this implies an increased sensitivity of the economy and growth to disturbances. eichengreen and hausmann (1999) and kamil (2006) posit that external exposure may also be explained if developing countries are unable to borrow from foreign financial markets in their own currency, no matter the term of the debt. all long run borrowings (domestic or foreign) must be made in foreign currency. therefore, external exposure and exchange rate regimes are unconnected. if the principal causes of external exposure are other than the external borrowing in a foreign currency then, a more flexible exchange rate will introduce some exchange rate risk leading economic agents to hedge their foreign currency-positions. this lowers the vulnerability of domestic firms and banks to exchange rate changes and world financial markets disturbances thereby leading to a lower instability in growth rates. asides from risks related to external exposure; fixed exchange rate regimes often come under speculative attacks. levy, yeyati and sturzenegger (2002) reached the conclusion that copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 23 exchange rate flexibility reduces growth volatility in developing countries; whereas, fixed and intermediate regimes perform better than floats in industrialized countries. bergwal (2002) simulated the swedish gdp stability over 1974-1994 with different hypotheses about the exchange rate regime. he concluded that the gdp would have been more slightly stable under flexible exchange rates than under the actual adjustable peg which in turn would have clearly dominated an irrevocably pegged exchange rate. 2.2 theoretical frame work 2.2.1 purchasing power parity (ppp) theory the purchasing power theorem as posit by kuttner and posen (2006) assumed that the normal equilibrium rate of exchange existing between two inconvertible currencies is determined by the ratios of their purchasing powers; hence the rate of exchange tends to be established at the point of equality between the purchasing powers of the two currencies. in essence, when one country’s inflation rate rises relative to that of another country, decrease exports and increases imports depress the country’s currency. the theory attempts to quantify inflation-exchange rate relationship by insisting that changes in exchange rate are caused by the inflation rate differentials. in absolute terms, ppp theory states that the exchange rate between the currencies of two countries equals the ratio between the prices of goods in these countries, implying that exchange rate must change to adjust to the change in the prices of goods in the two countries. according to kara & nelson (2002), the expected inflation differential equals the current spot rate and the expected spot rate differential. the ppp in its simplest form asserts that in the long run, changes in exchange rate among countries will tend to reflect changes in relative price level. kamin & klau (2003), are of the view that if exchange rates are floating, the observed movement can be explained entirely in terms of changes in relative purchasing power and when it is fixed, equilibrium can be determined by comparing satisfactory methods for:  explaining the observed movements in exchange rates for countries whose rates were floating.  determining equilibrium parity rates for the countries whose surviving rates were out of line with post war market conditions.  assessing the appropriateness of an exchange rate. grigorianm (2004) opined that despite criticisms of ppp theory, the theoretical foundation and explanation may sound reasonable and acceptable but its practical application in real situation may be an illusion, especially in the long run. nucu (2011) however posits that the pitfalls notwithstanding, ppp theory is generally a sine-quo-non in the exchange rate determination literature, and continues to remain relevant in the determination of exchange rate among countries of the world. 2.2.2 monetary theory the monetary theory of exchange rate determination is one of the most recent models that have generated lively debate in international accounting, economics and finance; which indeed has made it very popular. the theory is presently the last in the well-known tradition of the monetarists or the monetarist school, which regards money as the major prime move in an economy. thus the monetary approach, as it is sometimes called, directs attention to the money stock as a primary determinant of the level of exchange rates. its major thrust is the assertion that exchange rate fluctuations are largely explicable in terms of variations in the relative supplies of national currencies. within the context of this view point, the monetary approach suggest that the money supply could be used to forecast movement of exchange rates, and that there exists an observable causal relationship between exchange rates and changes in money supply. levacic and rebmann (1982) pointed out that by the monetarists model, changes in economic variables affect the exchange rate through their impact on the demand for and supply of money balances. the theory thus stresses the view that the supply of and demand for money are strong forces in determining a country’s external position. an increase in the demand for a country’s money will lead to surpluses in the balance of payments while an increase in the supply of money, ceteris paribus, will give rise to deficits. according to ardalan (2003), the monetary approach concerns itself with the deficit on monetary account, which in principle, consists of the items that affect the domestic monetary base. the model emphasizes the monetary aspects of the balance of payments, looks beyond merchandise trade and incorporates the important role of financial assets. in akpansung (2013), the main thesis of the monetary approach to exchange rates is that a country’s exchange rate dynamics is essentially a monetary phenomenon, and that any observed disequilibrium in the balance of payments can be eliminated through an adroit manipulation of monetary variables especially domestic credit, under controlled exchange rate, absence of sterilization by the monetary authorities, and stable demand for money function. this assumption presents the supply of money as endogenous by assuming a feedback from the balance of payments through changes in international reserves to changes in the monetary liabilities of the central bank. under this approach, money market disequilibrium is seen as a crucial factor provoking balance of payments disequilibrium. imbalances in the balance of payments will restore equality between the demand for and supply of money in the absence of official intervention. duasa (2011) inferred that external disequilibrium is transitory and will self-equilibrate in the long-run. 2.3 empirical review serve´n (2003) examined empirically the link between real exchangerate uncertainty and private investment in developing countries, using a large cross-country time series data set. the paper builds a garch-based measure of real-exchange-rate copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 24 volatility and finds that it has a strong negative effect on investment, after controlling for other standard investment determinants and taking into account their potential endogeneity. osinubi and amaghionyeodiwe (2009) investigated the empirical evidence on the effect of exchange rate volatility on foreign direct investment (fdi) in nigeria, using secondary time series data from 1970 to 2004.the study utilized the error correction model as well as ols method of estimation. the results suggest, among others, that exchange rate volatility need not be a source of worry by foreign investors. also, the study further reveals a significant positive relationship between real inward fdi and exchange rate. polodoo, seetanah and padachi (2011) examined the impact of exchange rate volatility on the macroeconomic performance of small island developing states (sids). taking a sample of 15 sids; the study analyzes econometrically the impact of exchange rate volatility on major macroeconomic variables, namely economic growth, external trade and foreign direct investment on the sids. the ols with robust standard errors results indicate that, exchange rate volatility impacts negatively on current account balance but positively on the growth rate of the economies studied. in a dynamic setting, however, exchange rate volatility does not influence the macroeconomic variables. taiwo and adesola (2013) investigated the impact of unstable exchange rate on bank performance in nigeria using two proxies for bank performance, namely loan loss to total advances ratio and capital deposit ratio. government expenditure, interest rate, real gross domestic product were added to exchange rate as independent variables. the two models specified show that the impact of exchange rate on bank performance is sensitive to the type of proxy used for bank performance. loan loss to total advance ratio shows that fluctuating exchange rate may affect the ability of lenders to manage loans resulting into high level of bad loans while capital deposit ratio does not have significant relationship with exchange rate. omorokunwa and ikponmwosa (2014) investigated the dynamic relationship between exchange rate volatility and foreign private investment in nigeria from 1980 to 2011. the finding include among other things that; exchange rate volatility has a very weak effect on the inflow of foreign direct investment (fdi) to nigeria, both in the long run and in the short run and that exchange rate volatility has a weak effect on foreign portfolio investment in the short run but a strong positive effect in the long run. jongbo (2014) examined the impact of real exchange rate fluctuation on industrial output by investigating the effect of misalignment of real exchange rate on the output of the nigeria industrial sector. the result shows that real exchange rate play a significant role in determining the industrial output. the study further reveals that the capacity utilization ratio is low, the case of which may not be too far away from, partly epileptic power supply, lack of adequate and appropriate technology and so on. adelowokan, adesoye and osisanwo (2015) examined the effect of exchange rate volatility on investment and growth in nigeria over the period of 1986 to 2014. the results confirm the existence of long run relationship between exchange rate, investment, interest rate, inflation and growth. finally the results show that exchange rate volatility has a negative effect with investment and growth while exchange rate volatility has a positive relationship with inflation and interest rate in nigeria. jonathan and kenneth (2016) analyzed the link between exchange rate fluctuations and private domestic investment in nigeria. the descriptive statistics of the variables included in the model show the existence of wide variations in the variables as depicted by the standard deviation of the exchange rate variable that was unusually high. the findings suggest that, the depreciation of the currency and interest rate does not stimulate private domestic investment activities in nigeria. ikechukwu (2016) investigated the effects of volatility clustering in exchange rate on firm’s performance in nigeria, examining cross sectional data for the most active 20 companies listed on the nigerian stock exchange. the results show that exchange rate fluctuation has significant negative impacts on the rate of return on assets, asset turnover ratio and the portfolio activity and resilience, thus, showing the significant negative impact of exchange rate fluctuation on firm performance in nigeria between 2004 and 2013. umoru and odjegba (2013) analyzed the relationship between exchange rate misalignment and balance of payments (bop) mal-adjustment in nigeria over the sample period of 1973 to 2012 using the vector error correction econometric modeling technique and granger causality tests. the study revealed that exchange rate misalignment exhibited a positive impact on the nigeria’s balance of payments position. the granger pair-wise causality test result indicated a unidirectional causality running from exchange rate misalignment to balance of payments adjustment in nigeria at the 1 percent level. the inconsistency in the research results of the various studies reviewed therefore motivated this study. oladipupo and onotaniyohuwo (2011) investigated the impact of exchange rate on the nigerian external sector (the balance of payments position) using the ordinary least square (ols) method for data covering the period between 1970 and 2008. the result revealed that exchange rate has a significant impact on the balance of payment position. imoisi (2012) examined the trends in nigerian’s balance of payments position from 1970-2010 using an econometric analysis. the study carried out a multiple regression analysis using the ordinary least square method for both linear and log linear form. the results showed that the independent variables appeared with the correct sign and thus, conform to economic theory, but the relationship between balance of payments and inflation rate was not significant. however, the relationship between balance of payments, exchange rate and interest rate were significant. copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 25 unaimikogbo and enoma (2011) evaluated the effect of monetary policy instruments on balance of payments in nigeria with a simulation equation model 1986-1997 using ordinary least square estimation technique of data analysis, the study found that both polices contribute significantly to balance of payment. they concluded that monetary variable is more effective and dependable than fiscal variable in affecting changes in economic activities. kandil (2004) examined the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on real output growth and price inflation in a sample of twenty-two developing countries. using theoretical rational expectation model in the analysis and decomposes movements in the exchange rate into anticipated and unanticipated components and concluded that exchange rate depreciation, both anticipated and unanticipated, decreases real output growth and increases price inflation which mean that currency depreciation has a negative effects on economic performance in developing countries. mori, asid, lily, mulok and loganathan (2012) investigated the effects of the exchange rates on economic growth in malaysia using time series data spanning from 1971 to 2009. the results of ardl bounds test suggest that long-run cointegration exists between both nominal and real exchange rates and economic growth with a significant positive coefficient recorded for real exchange rate and concluded that both exchange rates have a similar causal effect towards economic growth and suggested that a systematic exchange rate via monetary policy should be properly developed to promote the stability and sustainability of economic growth in malaysia. attah-obeng, enu, osei-gyimah and opoku (2013) examined the relationship between gdp growth rate and exchange rate in ghana from the period 1980 to 2012. the study employed the graphing of the scatter diagram for the two variables which are gdp growth rate and exchange rate, establishes the correlation between gdp growth rate and exchange rate using the pearson’s product moment correlation coefficient (ppmc) and finally estimates the simple linear regression using ols. which confirms to the theory that undervaluation (high exchange rate) stimulates economic growth in the short run. therefore, policy makers should stabilize monetary and fiscal policies in the long run. adeniran, yusuf and adeyemi (2014) examined the impact of exchange rate on nigeria economic growth from 1986 to 2013. employing the correlation and regression analysis, the ordinary least square (ols) analyze the data. the result revealed that exchange rate has positive and insignificant impact on nigeria economic growth and recommended that government should encourage the export promotion strategies in order to maintain a surplus balance of trade and also conducive environment, adequate security, effective fiscal and monetary, as well as infrastructural facilities should be provided so that foreign investors will be attracted to invest in nigeria. akinlo and lawal (2012) used vector error correction model (vecm) examined the impact of exchange rate on industrial production in nigeria over the period 1986-2010. the finding confirmed the existence of long run relationship between industrial production index and exchange rate, money supply and inflation rate. moreover, exchange rate depreciation had no perceptible impact on industrial production in the short run but had positive impact in the long run. output, inflation and exchange rate in nigeria was the focus of the work by odusola and rasaq (2012) analyzed the impact of exchange rate volatility on macroeconomic variables. employing correlation matrix, ordinary least square (ols) and granger causality test, the findings shows that exchange rate volatility has a positive influence on gross domestic product and suggested that there is need for nigeria to improve their revenue base in term of increasing number of items meant for export, reduce over reliance on petroleum sector, reduce the importation of non essential items and increased domestic production will reduce the problem caused by exchange rate volatility. aliyu (2011) argued that appreciation of exchange rate results in increased imports and reduced export while depreciation would expand export and discourage import. also, depreciation of exchange rate tends to cause a shift from foreign goods to domestic goods. hence, it leads to diversion of income from importing countries to countries exporting through a shift in terms of trade, and this tends to have impact on the exporting and importing countries’ economic growth. he concluded that appreciation of exchange rate exert positive impact on real economic growth in nigeria. dada and oyeranti (2012) analysed the impact of exchange rate on macroeconomic aggregates in nigeria. based on the annual time series data for the period 1970 to 2009 and employed vector-autoregressive model. the estimation results show that there is no evidence of a strong direct relationship between changes in the exchange rate and gdp growth. rather, nigeria’s economic growth has been directly affected by fiscal and monetary policies and other economic variables particularly the growth of exports (oil) and concluded that improvements in exchange rate management are necessary but not adequate to revive the nigerian economy. azeez, kolapo and ajayi (2012) also examine the effect of exchange rate volatility on macroeconomic performance in nigeria from 1986 to 2010. the model formulated depicts real gdp as the dependent variable while exchange rate (exr), balance of payment (bop) and oil revenue (orev) are proxied as independent variables. it employs the ordinary least squared (ols) and johansen co-integration estimation techniques to test for the short and long runs effects respectively. the results show that oil revenue and balance of payment exert negative effects while exchange rate volatility contributes positively to gdp in the long run. they recommended that the monetary authorities should pursue policies that would curb inflation and ensure stability of exchange rate. copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 26 ehinomen and oladipo (2012) examined the impact of exchange rate management on the growth of the manufacturing sector in nigeria. ordinary least square (ols) multiple regression analysis was employed to analyzed time-series data which spanned between 1986 to2010. the empirical result of this study shows that depreciation which forms part of the structural adjustment policy (sap) 1986, and which dominated the period under review has no significant relationship with the manufacturing’s sector productivity. it was found that in nigeria, exchange rate appreciation has a significant relationship with domestic output and recommended that government should direct its exchange rate management policy towards exchange rate appreciation in order to reduce the cost of production in the manufacturing sector that depends heavily on foreign inputs while there should be total ban of importation on consumer and intermediate goods that can be produced locally. yaqub (2010) investigated the effect of exchange rate on output of different sectors in nigeria. the study adopted the modified is-lm framework and estimated the behavioural equations. data on nigeria from 1970-2007 were utilized. the results obtained indicated that exchange rate had significant contractionary effects on agricultural and manufacturing sectors while it had expansionary effect on services sector. the study therefore concluded that the existing structures in nigeria could not support an expansionary depreciation argument in the basic sectors during the period of study. opaluwa, umeh and ameh (2010) examined the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the nigerian manufacturing sector during a twenty (20) year period (1986 – 2005). the argument is that fluctuations in exchange rate adversely affect output of the manufacturing sector. this is because nigerian manufacturing is highly dependent on import of inputs and capital goods. these are paid for in foreign exchange whose rate of exchange is unstable. 3. methodology this study applies the error correction methodology to a regression model based on the relationship between exchange rate variations on nigeria economy. the idea is to subject the variables to stationary lest and subsequently remove the non stationary trends by differencing before regressing. this approach is intended to remove the possibility of spurious regression that may not have considered the problem of unit roots stationarity. as a result, the econometric methodology used in those studies did not account for non-stationarity in the data. the analysis here is primarily based on engle and granger (1987), and engle and yoo (1987). the idea is to determine the order of integration of the variables, that is, we test whether they are stationary in their levels or whether they have to be differenced once or more before they become stationary. testing for unit roots is earned by using the augmented dickey-fuller (adf) test. in order to examine the relationship between the dependent and the independent variables, the model for this study is hereby specified as follows: rgdp = ffcyjybpsusd 443210   + εί 1 a-priori, b,> 0, b3> 0, b3> 0, b4<0, b5> 0, 2 where: rgdp = real gross domestic products usd = us dollar proxy by naira exchange rate per dollar pds = british pound sterling proxy by naira exchange rate per pound yy = japanese yen proxy by naira exchange rate per yen cy = chinese yen proxy by naira exchange rate per yen ff = french francs proxy by naira exchange rate per franc εί = error term the analysis of short-run dynamics is often done by first eliminating trends in the variables, usually by differencing. the theory of co-integration development in granger (1981) and elaborated in engle and granger (1987) addressed this issue of integrating short-run dynamics with long-run equilibrium. it is important to note that the usual starting point of ecm modeling is to assess the order of integration of both the dependent and independent variables in the model. the order of integration ascertains the number of time a variable will be differentiated to arrive at stationary. dickeyfuller (df), augmented dickey-fuller (adf) and sargan -rhargava durban-watson (srdw) are the widely used test for stationary for both individual time series and residual from ols regressions. co-integration is based on the properties of the residuals from regression analysis when the series are individually non-stationary. the original co integration regression is specified as follows: 1110  ta 3 where a represents the dependent variables,  stands for the independent variable, and 1 is the random error term. 0 and 1 are intercept and slope coefficients respectively. to include the possibility of bi-directional causality, the reverse specification of equation 1 is considered .to provide a more defensive answer to the non-stationarity in each time series, the dickey-fuller (1979) regression is estimated as follows for a unit root: copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 27 ttt wee  1  4 if x equals zero e is non-stationary. as a result, a and b are not co-integrated. in other words, if x is significantly different from zero a and b is found integrated individually. given the inherent weakness of the root test to distinguish between the null and the alternative hypothesis, it is desirable that the augmented dickey-fuller (adf) (1981) test be applied. the desirability is warranted because it is corrects for any serial correlation by incorporating logged changes of the residuals. to be co-integrated, both a and b must have the same order of integration (eagle and granger, 1987 and granger, 1986).the adf regression is specified as follows: t t m ij jtote      1 1  5 where ‘ ’ the first different operator and ‘µ’ is the new random error term. m is the optimum number of lags needed to obtain "white noise". this is approximated when the dw value approaches 2.0 numerically. the null hypothesis of non-cointegration is rejected, if the estimated adf statistics is found to be larger than its critical value at 1 or 5 or 10 per cent level of significance. if a, and b, are found to be co-integrated, then there exist an associated error-correlation model (ecm), according to engle and granger (1987). the usual ecm may take the following form: tjt t j jjt t j tot vbaeg        11 11  6 where  denotes the different operator cm is the error correction term, t is the number of lags necessary to obtain white noise and v, is another random disturbance term. if a0cm is significantly different from zero, then a and b have long-run relationship, the error-correction term  1te depicts the extent of disequilibrium between a and b the hcm, reveals further that the change in a, not only depends on lagged changes in b, but also on its own lagged changes. 4. results and discussion of findings the following tables contain details of the relationship between naira exchange rate variation and nigeria economy between the years 2000 to 2017. table i: ols regression results variable coefficient std. error t-statistic prob. usd 0.892229 1.215909 4.733796 0.0004 bps -0.715401 1.534896 -3.205487 0.0007 jy 0.331943 0.820052 2.404783 0.0088 cy 0.170058 0.180702 0.941096 0.3550 ff -0.408847 1.074098 -2.008237 0.0035 c 28.43707 32.01708 0.888184 0.3823 r-squared 0.651992 mean dependent var 56.27061 adjusted r-squared 0.423565 s.d. dependent var 23.56958 s.e. of regression 24.98336 akaike info criterion 9.437262 sum squared resid 16852.54 schwarz criterion 9.709355 log likelihood -149.7148 hannan-quinn criter. 9.528813 f-statistic 4.296157 durbin-watson stat 1.271006 prob(f-statistic) 0.000786 source: computed from e-view table ii: presentation of unit root test at first difference rgdp -3.667294 -3.653730 -2.957110 -2.617434 0.0097 1(i) reject h0 stationary usd -7.151954 -3.661661 -2.960411 -2.619160 0.0000 1(i) reject h0 stationary bps -7.081684 -3.689194 -2.971853 -2.625121 0.0000 1(i) reject h0 stationary jy -5.130171 -3.699871 -2.976263 -2.627420 0.0003 1(i) reject h0 stationary cy -8.396422 -3.661661 -2.960411 -2.619160 0.0000 1(i) reject h0 stationary ff -7.974944 -3.670170 -2.963972 -2.621007 0.0000 1(i) reject h0 stationary source: computed from e-view copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 28 table iii: presentation of johansen cointegration test hypothesized trace statistic 0.05 critical value no. of ce(s) eigenvalue prob.** none 0.578971 71.82317 95.75366 0.6597 at most 1 0.456749 45.00649 69.81889 0.8307 at most 2 0.312887 26.09077 47.85613 0.8863 at most 3 0.278652 14.45782 29.79707 0.8140 at most 4 0.115271 4.332186 15.49471 0.8750 at most 5 0.017126 0.535503 3.841466 0.4643 source: computed from e-view table iv: error correction estimates variable coefficient std. error t-statistic prob. c 0.017329 0.007328 2.364752 0.0330 d(rgdp(-1)) -0.340025 0.301352 -1.128332 0.2781 d(usd(-1)) 0.001464 0.003147 0.465309 0.6489 d(usd(-2)) 0.001841 0.002820 0.652804 0.5245 d(usd(-3)) 0.000415 0.002699 0.153730 0.8800 d(bps(-1)) -0.003355 0.002296 -1.461154 0.1661 d(bps(-2)) -0.004847 0.002195 -2.208557 0.0444 d(bps(-3)) -0.002393 0.002457 -0.973944 0.3466 d(jy(-1)) -0.000673 0.001646 -0.408716 0.6889 d(jy(-2)) 0.000344 0.001813 0.189519 0.8524 d(jy(-3)) -0.001042 0.001889 -0.551348 0.5901 d(cy(-1)) 0.000398 0.000314 1.266118 0.2261 d(cy(-3)) -0.000102 0.000234 -0.436842 0.6689 d(ff(-1)) -0.002179 0.003908 -0.557564 0.5859 ecm(-1) -0.392257 0.182803 -2.145787 0.0499 r-squared 0.628270 mean dependent var 0.007552 adjusted r-squared 0.256541 s.d. dependent var 0.039807 s.e. of regression 0.034323 akaike info criterion -3.599735 sum squared resid 0.016493 schwarz criterion -2.892513 log likelihood 67.19615 hannan-quinn criter. -3.378242 f-statistic 1.690127 durbin-watson stat 2.216982 prob(f-statistic) 0.168753 source: computed from e-view table v: granger causality test null hypothesis: obs f-statistic prob. usd does not granger cause rgdp 31 0.27576 0.7612 rgdp does not granger cause usd 8.83811 0.0012 bps does not granger cause rgdp 31 0.25225 0.7789 rgdp does not granger cause bps 0.39938 0.6748 jy does not granger cause rgdp 31 0.13728 0.8723 rgdp does not granger cause jy 0.55468 0.5809 cy does not granger cause rgdp 31 3.83802 0.0346 rgdp does not granger cause cy 1.99041 0.1569 ff does not granger cause rgdp 31 0.51371 0.6042 rgdp does not granger cause yy 2.89661 0.0732 source: computed from e-view copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 29 5. analyses and discussion of results from the estimated regression model, the results above prove the relationship between the dependent and the independent variables as formulated in the model. the r2 of 0.65 indicate that exchange rate variation against the currencies examined in this study can explained 65 percent variation in nigerian economic performance while the remaining 35% is traceable to exogenous variables not captured in the model. this result proved the significance of the model. the durbin watson statistics show that there is the presence of serial autocorrelation between the variables in the time series. the regression coefficient proved that flexible naira exchange rate against us dollar, japanese yen and chinese yen has positive and significant effect on nigerian economy; while british pound sterling and french franc have negative effect on nigerian economy as measured by real gross domestic products. the stationary test on the time series properties of our data were examined by conducting the unit root test using the augmented dickey-fuller (adf) test and the co-integration test was done using engle grange co-integration procedure. in other to estimate the impact of financial intermediation on nigeria economic development; we tested for the presence of unit root in the panel data set. this was necessitated because we wanted to ensure that the parameters estimated are stationary panel series data. we utilized the augmented dickey-fuller (adf) to reject the null hypothesis because the data were stationary. the result of the unit root test is presented in table ii. it revealed that the data are stationary since the adf statistical computations are less than the critical values at 1%, 5% and 10% respectively. the negative relationship between naira exchange rate against the british pound sterling and french franc could be traced to the increasing level of nigerian import from japan while the positive effect of the american dollar and the british pounds sterling could be trace to the fact that nigeria is the largest exporter of crude oil to the united states and united states accounts for over 80% of trade transaction from nigeria. the positive relationship confirm the findings of dickson and andrew (2013) on the negative effect of nigerian exchange rate depreciation on non-oil export, it is also in line with the findings of bohara (2001). it also confirms the findings of cheong et al., (2002) but contrary to the findings of aristelous (2001). 6. conclusion factors that can enhance naira exchange rate against key currencies has been one of the major challenges facing the nigerian monetary authorities and macroeconomic policies in the last four decades, this has led to the formulation of various exchange rate policies as well as macroeconomic policies. in less than 20 years nigeria has over ten exchange rate policies, some are reintroduced after being abolished, for instance the prevailing dutch auction system in the nigerian foreign exchange rate market was first introduced in 1988 after the deregulation of the economy, abolished in the 1990s and reintroduced in 2007. the effects on nigerian trade relationships cannot be underestimated. the findings of this study proved that exchange rate variation against the united states dollar, japanese and chinese yen have positive and significant relationship with nigerian economic proxy by real gross domestic products; while naira exchange rate variation against british pounds sterling and french franc have negative relationship with nigerian economic. the r square proved that 65 percent variation in nigerian real gross domestic products can be traced to variation in the naira exchange rate variation of the currencies examined in the study. the f-statistics indicates that the model formulated is significant in examining the relationship between the dependent and the independent variable. from the above, the study concludes that there is significant relationship between flexible exchange rate variation and nigerian real gross domestic products. 7. recommendation  monetary and macroeconomic policies should be properly articulated with an impregnable feedback loop, implemented to the letter, and a quarterly examination of the impact on the naira should be regularly engaged, evaluated, interpreted and ensure that the results and possible remedial action(s) get to the appropriate authority timeously so as to ensure well informed decision(s).  the monetary authority should devise measures of managing the depreciating naira exchange rate against the british pounds sterling and the united states dollar to enhance a steady growth of the nigerian economy.  as a sovereign nation, the need to review her terms of trade with foreign partners – nations and or individuals – has become (not minding our historical ties) imperative; especially when it is counterproductive to our collective wellbeing; which must not be circumvented nor trampled upon.  the need for the government and its regulatory agencies and system operators in the non-oil sector to work in synergy so as to enable growth in that sector and contribute to the much needed increase in the nation’s gross domestic product; cannot be overemphasized. we therefore recommend that a deliberate step by the government of day in conjunction with industry operators and related non-governmental institutions; with the sole objective of developing this sector and ensure its optimal yield; should be engaged.  the nigerian monetary authorities should develop programmes aimed at identifying and countering any shift in the naira exchange rate in the international money market. this will help them to be pro-active and give the much needed boost to our ailing economy and stabilize the naira exchange rate at the foreign exchange market. 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(2010). exchange rate changes and output performance in nigeria: a sectorial analysis. pakistan journal of social sciences,7(5), 12-19. copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. this is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). american economic & social review vol. 7, no. 1; 2021 issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 published by cribfb, usa 1 social awareness and creativity enhancement program through e-learning platform: a case of maizbhander foundation's meddhabikash program, fatikchari, bangladesh syed irfanul hoque managing trustee darul irfan research institute (diri) fatikchari, bangladesh nayeb sajjadah nasheen gausia ahmadia manzil maizbhandar darbar sharif fatikchhari, chattogram, bangladesh e-mail: tasauf.darulirfan@gmail.com muhammad ali asgor lecturer department of islamic studies dilowara jahan memorial college bakolia, chattogram, bangladesh associate member of diri e-mail: tasauf.darulirfan@gmail.com md ariful islam lecturer omor goni m.e.s university college nasirabad, chattogram, bangladesh associate member of diri e-mail: tasauf.darulirfan@gmail.com abstract due to the pandemic situation, the whole world is in turmoil. the educational activities are being conducted via an e-platform in bangladesh. social awareness and creativity enhancement programs have also been limited from the wide range of conventional mode to virtual mode. in the meantime, many social organizations and educational institutions have failed to manage their regular activities due to lack of technological support. therefore, the purpose of this study is to examine the success of social awareness and creativity enhancement programs through the e-learning platform. in order to measure the success of the program a quasi-experimental research design has been applied. in order to collect data, a well-structured creativity, and awareness scale has been adapted. a questionnaire has been administered twice with the same sample. once before the program offered and again after their participation in the program. the test-retest reliability of the scale would also check with a minimum of α=.80. therefore, the findings of the research will show how much the effectiveness of those activities increased. this study will assist the social workers, teachers, students and concerned authority in operating creativity enhancement related co-curricular and non-credited program through selfregulated distance learning in a developing country. keywords: virtual mode, eplatform, creativity enhancement program, co-curricular, non-credit program tasauf.darulirfan@gmail.com file:///f:\gara\tasauf.darulirfan@gmail.com file:///f:\gara\tasauf.darulirfan@gmail.com file:///f:\gara\tasauf.darulirfan@gmail.com https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 7, no. 1; 2021 2 introduction the novel corona virus was first reported in wuhan, china at the end of december 2019; gradually it spread all over the world. countless people are constantly being affected and deceased all over the world. in bangladesh, the first three corona virus patients were detected on march 8, 2020,according to the institute of epidemiology, disease control and research (iedcr) (alam et al., 2020). for such a pandemic situation, the socio-cultural condition of the globe is continually being devastated. the social works and creativity related programs also are being interrupted as far and wide. most of the socio-cultural programs along with educational activities are widely being conducted virtually. if the case does not improve, this break is further prolonged. like other countries, bangladesh is also facing challenges in dealing with this situation. monitoring matters, the ministry of education of bangladesh has decided to shut all educational institutions until the condition improves significantly. for maintaining social distancing, the other socio-cultural occasions have also been halted across the country. meanwhile, the education ministry of bangladesh has ordered to conduct online classes to all educational institutions as an alternative way so that the dropping out of the students can be prevented at any cost on account of long-time closing. to ensure uninterrupted education among the students, the moe (ministry of education) has started telecasting classes regularly for the students of schools and colleges (alam, 2020).as a developing country though this process is facing problems due to lack of infrastructure of the internet, it’ll draw a good result in the education sector. since, in bangladesh, there are 46 public, 105 private universities and 1500 colleges affiliated with the national university of bangladesh, comparing to the students these institutions are not capable of accommodating and enrolling all of them (alam, 2020). in this case, distant learning or elearning can eradicate these barriers and limitations. problem statement the maizbhandar foundation's medhabikash project has been conducting 'the social awareness and creativity enhancement programs' for a long time among the students of school and madrasah from class vii to ix. for so long, the authority was accustomed to conduct those programs in a conventional way. now, they have faced challenges to arrange the programs among the students on account of the pandemic situation. if those programs are discontinued among them, the social awareness and creativity enhancement among the teenager students will be halted. therefore, this year the organization has taken initiative to conduct its campaign via an elearning platform due to adversities of the new normal condition. conducting those programs through the e-learning platform has posed a challenge for this organization as they have no prior experience in managing such campaigns via the e-learning platform. even then, it has created a wide range of opportunities and potentiality to spread the programs beyond the rural areas to each corner of the country. the study has tried to specialize in the effectiveness of the program via the e-learning platform. in order to measure the success rate in such a case, a quasi-experimental research design has been used. on account of collecting data, a well-structured creativity, and awareness scale has also been applied. using the identical sample the questionnaire has been administered twice. once before the program offered and again after their participation in the program ended. the test-retest reliability of the scale would also check with a minimum of α=.80. hopefully, the outcome of the study will be conducive for the students, teachers, social workers, concerned authority in operating creativity enhancement related co-curricular and non-credited programs through self-regulated webbased or e-learning platform in developing country like bangladesh. research objectives the major objectives of the study are:  to examine the success of social awareness and creativity enhancement programs through the e-learning platform  to study the current situation of the e-learning platform in the context of bangladesh in line with the global situation.  to find out some strategies and techniques in making the medhabikash programmore successful in the e-learning platform; and https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 7, no. 1; 2021 3  to identify the problems and barriers for the students to participate in the program through the e-learning platform and make a solution to these. research questions this study tries to answers the following research questions  how to examine the success of social awareness and creativity enhancement programs through the e-learning platform?  what is the current situation of the e-learning platform in the context of bangladesh?  which strategies and techniques can be adapted in making the medhabikash program more successful in the e-learning platform?  what are the problems and barriers for the students to participate in the medhabikash program and how can it be solved? the overall structure of the paper the overall paper is arranged in the following structure: first of all the ‘literature review’ is included, where we have discussed the theoretical structure of the study. then, the research methodology is mentioned. later, we have discussed findings and analysis. then, we have cited results and discussions. finally, we have concluded our paper with limitations, recommendations, and a conclusion. literature review the e-learning platform the e-learning platform can be defined in many ways. although the means of the e-learning platform are varied procedurally, the whole process depends upon electricity, devices, and therefore the internet. most of the authors have opined that the social networks that are used to get accessed through the utilization of technology for learning experiences or gaining knowledge are known as eplatform (power, 2020) (farah & ahmed, 2014). the e-learning facilities are also increasing day by day. according to the opinion of fountain 2001, p 10, technological facilities are growing faster than in previous years. technological tools like software, hardware, and network capacity are also tremendously being up-to-date which has opened the door to e-learning and digitization all over the world (uddin & uddin, 2020). the e-learning in the context of bangladesh if we take a glance at the historical background of e-learning in bangladesh, then we see that it absolutely was first introduced in 1956 by a radio broadcasting program and later the program was expanded in an exceedingly big selection with the establishment of bou (bangladesh open university) in 1992 (farah & ahmed, 2014). although the concept of e-learning isn't new, it’s implementation has not significantly started in the country. the infrastructure of internet service isn't well structured in rural areas compared to urban areas. the people of rural areas mostly rely upon the frequency of telecom companies. statistics show that rural people mostly use cell phones to make a call other than using internet services. a survey conducted in 2011 found that rural people are lagging behind compared to the urban people in using the internet (bbs bangladesh bureau of statistics, 2017). however, the current situation has opened a new era of e-learning for every kind of individuals irrespective of rural and urban people. since the educational institutions will remain closed almost all around the year until the situation improves, the e-learning platform is that the only reliable sector in this field. overview of social awareness and e-learning platform at present, we are able to see a revolutionary change worldwide because of the development of technology. electronic technologies have transformed the nature of social work practice. according to reamer (2013), the nature of social works has transformed into a digital way by the invention of technology. now those social works are being delivered through online and other electronic technology (reamer, 2013). he also mentioned in his article some means of delivering social works as a whole such as online counselling, telephone counselling, video counselling, cyber therapy (avatar therapy), self-guided web-based interventions, electronic social networks, e-mail, and text https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 7, no. 1; 2021 4 messages (reamer, 2013). in this age, social workers remain busy giving services to their clients via phone calls, video calls, messaging, and online chatting. prior to this age, these works were very difficult to deliver to the doorsteps of their clients. creativity and e-learning platform we know that creativity can be a vital factor for a man. if creative thinking skills cannot be developed anyhow, the skilled manpower won't be generated. according to webster’s dictionary creativity can be defined as having the ability to create (heilman, 2014). the root word of creativity is ‘create’ which denotes to bring into being or to produce (heilman, 2014). some other definition of creativity is also in vogue what can be defined as marked by originality (heilman, 2014). some also opine that the word ‘creativity’ springs from the latin word creo which refers to create, to make (ritter & mostert, 2017). creative thinking is considered as one of the key competencies for the 21 st century. kaufman and beghet to have categorized creativity into four divisions as they are (1) big-c creativity, (2) pro-c creativity (3) little-c creativity, and (4) mini-c creativity (márquez et al., 2016). big-c creativity is named ‘high’ creativity as this type of creativity can be innovated by the elite few who transform their discipline into inventions, einstein's theory of relativity and darwin's theory of evolution are included in this sect (márquez et al., 2016; hasan & islam, 2020). the pro-c creativity can be developed in a person for a long period, usually; it takes at least ten years. ‘acting with flexibility, intelligence, and novelty in the everyday’ are called little-c creativity. this type of creativity may be developed over a protracted period. an individual who contains such quality can resolve complex problems at work. mini-c creativity is often defined as the ‘novel and personally meaningful interpretation of experiences, actions, and events’. this sort of creativity is nurtured by teachers and parents (márquez et al., 2016). possibility and challenges for social awareness and creativity enhancement programs through e-learning platform the possibilities of e-learning in creating social awareness and creativity enhancement can bring multiple benefits. according to graham & misanchuk (2004) online media i.e. e-learning media can draw enormous benefits for the students and teachers in supporting teachings and learning’s (alam, 2020). not only does e-learning accelerate the facility of teaching and learning, but it also contributes to the overall development and gdp growth of the country. according to the analysis of kahouli, 2012 ict (information and communication technology) i;e e-platform can constitute the source of job creation, economic and technological catching up, reduce the transaction costs, distances, increase the productivity of the country and many more (okon, 2018). if social awareness and creativity enhancement programs are delivered via the e-platform, it can confer more benefits and advantages for the students than the traditional mode. some notable benefits are mentioned below:  according to you & kang, a student who favours self-regulated learning, it may be helpful for him (alam, 2020). in this case, social awareness and creativity enhancement programs can be more conducive than the conventional mode.  the students can be connected online under any circumstances with none additional preparation disregarding their time and place (alam, 2020). boundary and limitation is a barrier to reach each of the students with specific topics. in that case, there is an opportunity to deliver it on an oversized scale through the e-learning platform.  the e-learning platform may be a priority basis if some major factors will have available in the country for making successful any reasonable campaign. among them, a large number of mobile subscribers, internet users, and a well-structured network system may be the most consideration. according to association of mobile telecom operators of bangladesh (2020), the total subscribers of the cell phone are 166.028million. where telenor's grameen phone ltd. (gp) is at the top as they have 77.011million subscribers. robi axiata limited (robi) is in the second place with 49.784 million subscribers. banglalink digital communications ltd is in the third place with 34.578 million subscribers. bangladesh's state-owned mobile company teletalk bangladesh ltd. (teletalk) is in the 4 th place with 4.655 million subscribers. the above mentioned data have been https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 7, no. 1; 2021 5 updated at the end of august 2020 (association of mobile telecom operators of bangladesh, 2020). according to the bangladesh telecommunication regulatory commission, mobile internet users are rapidly increasing which stands at 108.188 million at the ends of august 2020 (association of mobile telecom operators of bangladesh, 2020).analysing the above data it's been clarified that bangladesh has a great possibility to be digitalized rapidly in spite of a developing country. as uncertainty is everywhere regarding reopening educational institutions, digitalization can help the students to stay them turned into their curricular activities as well as co-curricular activities. the challenges and barriers to spread e-learning concepts in creating social awareness and creativity enhancement are many. among them, literacy and digital skills are the biggest perceived barrier to adopt mobile internet adoption (gsma, gsma intelligence, uk aid, 2019). in the context of bangladesh literacy and digital skill don't seem to be such a lot of hindrance, but it's becoming less of a barrier significantly in many countries like bangladesh. the subsequent data show that lots of barriers are existing in our country regarding digitalization but day by day the barrier is lessening in spite of lack of literacy and digital skills(gsma, gsma intelligence, uk aid, 2019). in 2019, the barrier regarding the use of mobile internet in bangladesh is a smaller amount than in the year 2018. in this case, bangladesh is in a better position than other countries. in 2018, the barrier to mobile internet use of our neighbouring country india was 63% and in 2019 was 59%. and in pakistan it was 78% and 79% respectively. in neighbouring myanmar, it was 69% and 74% respectively (gsma, gsma intelligence, uk aid, 2019). according to the above information, the barrier of mobile internet use is being lessened in bangladesh day by day than some other south-east countries like india, pakistan, myanmar, and indonesia. in 2019 the barrier to mobile internet use in bangladesh was 48%. apart from literacy and digital skills, there are many other obstacles to provide social awareness and creativity enhancement programs among the students through e-learning means which are unavailability of the internet facility in the rural areas, the weak signal of the internet, lack of experience handling smartphone or computer, time management to attend the live classes and sometimes it’s uphill in elearning platform to interact the students(alam, 2020;). a case study of maizbhandari foundation’s medhabikash program anjuman-e-muttabiyene gause maizbhandari (shah emdadia) was established by sajjadanshin-egauthal-azam hazrat maulana shah sufi syed delowar hossain maizbhandari ® in 1949 a.d (maizbhandari, 2006). later, the spiritual heir of his godi (chair) hazrat maulana shah sufi syed emdadul hoque maizbhandari (m.j.a) founded maizbhandari foundation. the medhabikash program of the maizbhandari foundation is conducted once a year among the students of schools and madrasah of rural areas. medhabikash, an education institution program is run by the maizbhandari foundation to develop the intellect and skill of the students in order that an ethical character and humanitarian quality may be developed at tender age among them. the medhabikash program of the maizbhandari foundation is split into two types (1) social awareness related programs namely: environmental protection activities, creating awareness about harmful aspects of the intake of chemical food, creating awareness about harmful aspects of the abuse of technology, cleaning, and sanitation program, creating awareness about the nutritional value of food and (2) creativity enhancement related programs that includequiz and creative questions-answers competition, environmental group study cycle, synonym/antonym of bangla and english, an ethics card questions-answers competition. this two types of activities can be termed as co-curricular activities. the main purpose of education is the overall development of the students which is comprised of curricular and co-curricular activities. the maizbhandari foundation’s medhabikash program is patronized by hazrat maulana shah sufi syed emdadul hoque maizbhandari (m.j.a) and directed by nayeb sajjadanshin hazrat maulana shah sufi syed irfanul hoque maizbhandari (m.j.a). the members of the maizbhandari foundation collaborating with the teachers of the schools and madrasahs conduct the program among the students. the all programs of the previous years were held in the school and madrasah premises or classrooms. it's been observed that an oversized number of students participated spontaneously in those programs and the participants have been beneficiated innumerable the source https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 7, no. 1; 2021 6 said. the current pandemic situation has raised awful circumstances everywhere and therefore the normal activities of the people are being disrupted. in this case, having a health risk for the students the government doesn't want to reopen the educational institutions. therefore, the medhabikash program has faced problems and is about to stop. methodology the study was conducted using a quasi-experimental research design. the sample size was 50 (fifty). with a view to collecting data, a well-structured creativity and awareness scale had been applied. a questionnaire had been developed consisting of 22 (twenty-two) items and making a google form, a link was provided to each student through their whatsapp number and a time frame was fixed to answer the questions. the participants weren't habituated enough before the test offered with the e-learning platform. in this case, they were in an exceedingly hurry to answer resulting they have mistakenly answered very few questions. so, it's been a failure to draw the expected results. the first test was held on october 9, 2020. the second test was held in december 2020. the first test result has been analysed with spss and later a paired sample test analysis has been given in ‘results’ section of the paper which shows that what quantity has improved their scores significantly with the e-learning platform. the table-1shows the number and gender of the participants: table 1. the below table shows the gender and number of participants in the medhabikash program genders of the participants valid frequency percent valid percent cumulative percent male 17 34.0 34.0 34.0 female 33 66.0 66.0 100.0 total 50 100.0 100.0 results the data have been analysed using statistical package for the social science (spss version 25.0). before using any test or scale, we must check its reliability where test-retest reliability has been checked on the basis of cronbach alpha of a scale α=.80. the most commonly used indicator for internal consistency is cronbach’s alpha coefficient and also the acceptable value of cronbach’s alpha coefficient should be greater than α=.70. for expected test-retest results, the sample must be reliable, otherwise, it won’t be acceptable. the sample items should be more than ten, otherwise, quite low cronbach’s alpha values will result in (e.g α=.50) (pallant, 2011). reliability refers to the consistency of a measure. a test or scale is considered reliable if we get an identical result repeatedly. reliability statistics are given below: table 2. the below table shows the valid and excluded participants case processing summary cases valid n % 50 100.0 excluded a 0 0 total 50 100.0 table 3. the below table shows the reliability statistics of the first test and post test scores reliability statistics cronbach’s alpha cronbach’s alpha based on standardized items no of items .999 .999 2 https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 7, no. 1; 2021 7 in table 3 of the two tables it is shown that cronbach’s alpha coefficient is greater than α=.70 which has stood above α=.80. here, cronbach’s alpha value is .999 which indicates a high quality reliability of the test. the findings of the study show that the maizbhandari foundation’s medhabikash program is what proportion has improved through the e-learning platform. the study has discovered a significant result and effectiveness of the e-learning platform among the two versions of the programs. the previous version was the conventional mode and also the latest version is the elearning platform. the newly adopted version of e-learning has created endless possibilities. the first test and post-test scores of the participants were assessed employing a t-test paired sample. the results of the t-test paired sample are attached in table-4: table 4. the below indicates the significant value of paired samples test in the heading ‘sig (2tailed)’ of the table paired samples test paired differences pair 1 the scores that have earned in the re-test the scores that have earned in the first test 95% confidence interval of the difference mean std. deviatio n std. error mean lower upper t df sig (2tail ed) -1.82000 .74751 .10571 -2.03244 -1.60756 -17.216 4 9 .00 0 if we look at a glance at the above-paired sample statistics (see table-4), we discover that there's an instructional effect in the post-test result of the participants. although the null hypothesis of the first test was that the e-learning platform is not effective, this sort of hypothesis has been rejected because the post-test score of the participants has improved significantly. if the post-test scores wouldn't be improved the null hypothesis would be overcome in this case. now we are able to say that the alternative hypothesis has won and created a significant outcome. the mean value of the first test score was 54.38 and the mean value of the post-test score is 56.2000.the mean difference value is -1.82000 (see table 4). is the mean difference value statistically significant or not? the answer should be significant as the p-value of the statistics is 0.00 (see table-4) which is smaller than 0.05. if the p-value is smaller than 0.05, then the result would be significant. therefore, we are able to say that the e-learning platform has proved as significant means to deliver social awareness and creativity enhancement programs. discussions maizbhandari foundation’s medhabikash program has commenced a new horizon in the field of elearning platform amid the adversities-situation of covid-19. the e-learning platform has helped the authority tremendously to reach the program in unlimited areas beyond the boundaries of the rural areas. the authority had to spend a lot of exertion and money to implement the program in the previous years, but the e-learning facilities have eased and relaxed them as well as reduced the cost of the program. we all know that the e-learning platform can’t be the fully substitute means of the conventional mode in any case. even then, the facilities of it can’t be avoided anyhow. we would say, the e-learning platform should be kept on a priority basis for the social organizations in order that their services would reach to the doorstep of every people beyond limited areas. maizbhandari foundation authority may consider the e-learning platform for the following years as an alternative way though the adversities condition of coronavirus would escape. experience has shown that the most obstacles for voluntary organizations is funding. in this case, the funding won't be matter https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 7, no. 1; 2021 8 because the e-learning facilities can help them to cut back the cost of the services. as a result, they are going to be able to deliver their services effortlessly for an extended time span. maizbhandari foundation authority has succeeded to rearrange the medhabikash program overcoming all obstacles through e-learning platform and has been able to attract the attention of the students, parents, guardians as well as teachers of the educational institutions because the authority has been able to make understand them the ease of use of the e-learning platform. apart from this, the authority has a group of devoted and dedicated volunteers who are trained up with the facilities of the e-learning platform. above all, the authority has drawn a significant outcome in the field of e-learning version. recommendations to improve the new context of education, some recommendations are made below:  at first, the infrastructure of the internet for ease of use should be improved so that students can access the web easily in the e-learning platform at a low cost.  steps may also be taken to encourage the students and their guardians to use the internet for any purpose especially in the context of elearning.  for a seamless e-learning environment the authority of the program should design, develop, and evaluate the well thought out plan.  for a fast response and spontaneous participation, the authority should provide just in case of need e-devices and internet data to the participants.  in particular, the people of the villages should be given priority to get the benefit of good network. because there are more people living in villages than in cities. about 62.8% people live in 86000 villages of bangladesh (saha, 2020).  bangladesh has a population of 3310 people per square mile, three times more than neighbouring india and 36 times more than the united states (chowdhury & hossain, 2018). so, adequate network towers should be set up so that telecommunication and internet services are not disrupted due to congestion. limitations the study has some limitations. the study is based on the primary data collected from the students who participated in the e-learning platform under the maizbhandari foundation’s medhabikash program. since there was limited study in this field, so not enough resources are found relevant to the context. in spite of limitations, the study has tried to point out an effective outcome of elearning. conclusion maizbhandari foundation’s medhabikash program is one of the platforms for building a developed and moral nation. the medhabikash programs in the past years have demanded praise among the teachers, students, and guardians. the results of the past years have inspired the authority innumerable to rearrange the program this year amid the adverse situation of covid-19. facing a large of challenges the authority has eventually succeeded in arranging the program in the elearning platform. if the government and also the mobile companies take proper steps to spread their network frequency and install the frequency tower, the positive result for the e-learning platform will be going to be accelerated. the population of 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(2020). rural socio-economic development through tourism in bangladesh: ways and means. american economic & social review, 6(1), 8–23. https://doi.org/10.46281/aesr.v6i1.507 uddin, m. g., & uddin, m. (2020). e-government development & digital economy: relationship. american economic & social review, 6(1), 39–54. https://doi.org/10.46281/aesr.v6i1.580 copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. this is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr american economic & social review; vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 research article published by centre for research on islamic banking & finance and business, usa 49 non-usury banking fits the change strategy: the solution to revive the economy bijan bidabad b.a., m.sc., ph.d., post doc. professor of economics and chief islamic banking advisor bank melli iran, tehran, iran email: bijan@bidabad.com abstract based on the working in different fields of sciences for a long time, a solution to change the structure of banking products as a solution to economic crises is proposed. by sharing the risks economically this solution can make economic integrity among all economic sectors.in this paper, we are going to introduce a new islamic financial institution with elaborated economic and financial characteristics. «non-usury bank corporation» (nubankco) is defined in a way that depositors are the shareholders of the bank. this corporation is a new kind of shared ownership corporation, which its shareholders are deposit holders and their deposits work as corporation’s equities. the defined bank can perform non-usury operations, and by designing a behavioral model, it is shown that nubankco can draw an environment that the welfare of society is to be maximized. mobility of deposit resources in nubankco is less than conventional banks, and there are fewer conflicts between large and small shareholders/depositors and limits the emergence of shareholders’ cartels and thus huge sudden outflow of funds which creates bankruptcy crises. keywords: usury, islamic banking, finance, rastin banking, profit and loss sharing 1. introduction the recent economic recession was predictable for a few years before, even if its depth cannot be imagined yet. a new solution matching the current turmoil was being confectioned for several years to remedy this type of economic crises. in these crises, the monetary policy would not be efficient enough, and fiscal policy is not a fast recovery remedy. thus, the protectionism policy should be attained to solve the problem for the long run. refection of the financial system is the most important step to make. the profit and loss sharing (pls) banking is the method to replace actual usuric traditional banking. pls banking not only can regain the trust of investors and depositors to the financial market, but also will reduce costs of investment and production by reducing the risks of investment and producing stable markets. in this paper, the other positive effects of pls such as the creation of new job opportunities, easy flow of capital and transactions, an increase of investments and productivity resulting to global wealth and the attenuations of international political complications also equity and peace, will not be explained. today, the global economy shows the lowest interest rate and the united states economy’s recession is being propagated to west and east of the world, where the recent increase of oil price caused the markup prices grew at the global level, and the expensiveness has been prevailed in public sustenance, especially for food grains. the bankruptcy and deficits of some western globe banks and higher financial risks at international financial markets and sequential crises in these markets illustrate a crisis similar to the 1929 world crisis. however, this one was accelerated by several impacts on the economy, such as natural disasters in west and risk-increasing bush's policies in the east. based on detailed economic researches, it has been proved that the volatilities of financial sector cause the fluctuations of the real economy and starts business cycles. in the 1929 crisis, investment and saving inconsistency in western economies, especially in the united states pushed the global economy to the phenomenon of the liquidity trap. there were only negative interest rates that were able to motivate the economy to pull it up from the bottom of the cycle. the monetary policy did not work because the interest rate was too low to be pushed to lower rates by increasing the money supply. when the economy falls into the liquidity trap, there is no monetary policies solution via either increasing the volume of liquidity or decreasing the interest rate to motivate investment demand to recover the economy back to prosperity. principally, a liquidity trap is caused due to a weak relationship between the rate of return in the real sector and the interest rate in the monetary sector; when the interest rate moves copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | afbr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 50 to lower rates but nominal investment rate of return does not. one reason for such occurrence is the increase of investment risks, which decreases the net return of capital. the risk becomes a wide premium of capital market's interest rate and investment market's return rate. on the other hand, the difference in the interest rate and investment rate of return increases. the president of the united states of america, mr. barak hussein obama's "change strategy" is a worthy decision to be taken at this point in time. this decision would change the world economy as well if it becomes successful in changing the economic infrastructure of the united states. if his policy ends to monetary sector reform, he will be able to revive the economy from the deep crisis; because the business cycle happens because of increase of risk in financial markets due to usury financial systems. if the risk and the profit of investment were shared with depositors, financial enterprises would be confronted with the lowest risk, and the risk would be transferred to depositors and debtors both, so the real and the financial sectors will be immunized from volatility. the solution is to peg the interest rate to real economy return rate. whereas by sharing the risk and the profit, the distance between the real sector and financial sector rates is reduced, and the premium of the risk will diminish. this will enable investment with lower cost for production. in fact, where the monetary solutions cannot be efficient (like the current situation) by application of risk sharing, we can balance and revive the economy. this is why theosophically divine religions pose: “usury is forbidden”. a solution to solve this deficiency has been expressed by religious legislators through deletion of usury from the economy. the religious legislation in torah and bible and quran actually have removed the intermediate monetary market between depositors and investors by the prohibition of usury and establishing a proportional relationship between profit and loss of investors (debtors) and the receipts of depositors. thus, it is not an exaggeration to say that the solution to prevent a global crisis similar to the previous century crisis is to change the nature of usury in the monetary sector and establishing profit and loss sharing between depositors and investors (entrepreneurs). real sector return rate is a stable rate, due to the stability of productivity and will not fall down or rise up drastically. establishment of profit and loss sharing will stabilize the interest rate due to the strengthening of the link between the interest rate in the money market and the rate of return of investment in the real sector. thus, inconsistency between investment and saving and, also, the liquidity trap will not happen in the economy to push the economy to the crisis. although the business cycle will not vanish from the economy, the cycles' swings will have narrow volatility domain. many countries have taken important steps to establish profit and loss sharing (pls) banking systems. regarding the lower risk of this type of banking, some western countries have been interested in testing this non-usuric banking system for the sake of risk averting. according to the imf reports, islamic banking has increased 10-15% annual growth in the last decade, and the same growth is predicted for the future years. despite the interest of bankers for using profit and loss sharing (pls) banking for the last decades, it has not prevailed yet executively. the existence of different definitions of riba, absence of appropriate operational, supervisory, and managing mechanism on pls are some reasons that haven't allowed this kind of banking to be practical yet. here, we are going to introduce a practical method for profit and loss sharing (pls) banking to overcome these problems. in this bank, the basis of determination of interest rate of loans is the real economy sector return. the bank operates as an intermediate that gets commissions and collects saving resources and as an attorney or legal representative of depositor allocate them to investment projects and supervises the detailed operation of the contractor. the yields of an investment will be transferred to resources owners who are depositors whatever the profit or loss is. 2. profit and loss sharing based on non-usuric banking products despite many developments and endeavors, pls banking has not been settled down operationally. the obstacles are due to needs to apply suitable executive mechanism and operation's procedures. in the way of applying pls, its procedures all the times have been mixed with usuric banking and even its financial instruments (innovations) as "profit and lost sharing certificate" and "investment deposit certificate" which attracted attention in the late 1990s were left aside. this contamination occurred due to some reasons. the most important one was due to executive and supervision problems on the operation of entrepreneurs who receive the financial resources for pls, in all financial, economics, technical and executive aspects; because, the banks have not been organized to supervise the detailed operations of the investments. thus, they were not qualified to do the task of supervision on operations. therefore, the banks manipulated non-usury rates into interest rate and actually, they entered the interest rate into the calculation though the existence of usury was not very obvious in the calculations. but by scrutinizing the loan calculations, the amount of interest was computable. another problem is: the juristic inferences about usury in different islamic sects are different, and this subject caused some differentials in usury definitions. different definitions produced different non-usuric banking products at an international level, in a case that some of these copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | afbr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 51 products were not consistent with similar products of other banks. even in iran, where the consistency was more than other countries the same result happened and also the jurist's and economists' consensus in the time of approving "the law of non-usury banking" in the early 1980s went to conflicts. thus, the general solution for the establishment of original non-usuric banking needed to revise the whole problem from the basis. the present proposition is the result of tough researches during the last ten years. we did our best to infer the opinion of religion's legislator according to the logic and rationality of theosophy (wisdom). we tried to reinfer the concept of usury from the torah, bible, and quran, and narrations first. thus some measures for distinguishing usury from non-usury were defined. these measures explicitly define the non-usuric operations as the following items:  the sharing of a loaner in profit and loss of loanee (the debtor)  no conditioning and not predetermination of interest  foreign exchange (without time-based interest) is non-usuric  all interests received from consumption loans are usuric by these measures, in the next round, we examined the islamic banking products. deposit, loan, currency exchange, bonds, valuable papers and metals, receive and payment orders and credit operations were analyzed according to the above usury and non-usury measures. some products as foroosh-e-aqsati, ijareh-be-sharte-tamlik, debt purchase and sale, and composite interest derived from the inability of loanee to repay the debt are usuric. also giving loan facilities through non-interest loan, civil moshareka, legal moshareka, direct investment, modaraba, salaf transaction, jjiale, mozaraeh, mosaghat, ijarah, according to specific conditions are non-usuric. in all of these products except non-interest loan and ijarah, which the rate of ijarah should be predetermined in advance, the interest rate must not be determined and conditioned. otherwise, the contracts become usuric. foreign exchange operations in spot and swap transactions (in case of not-existing interest rate in exchange calculations), options (in case of a unique interest rate for two currencies), letter of credit are non-usuric. but the foreign exchange operations of futures and time-based transactions timed swap transactions; options and foreign exchange deposits enter into usury realm. we examined all sale and purchase of bond papers, metals' transactions, receipt and payment order, and banking credit operations and their characteristics from the usuric point of view. 3. nubankco; the ultimate idea is now feasible according to the findings of these analyses, the concept of “non-usury bank corporation (nubankco)” introduced which can handle non-usuric banking operations. nubankco was proposed as an economic firm where the depositors are her shareholders. this bank is capable of handling non-usuric operations by distributing profit proportionate to the share of shareholders (depositors). if the banks remove different deposits differentials and increase transparency and efficiency of banking operation, by removing the numerous deposit interest rates and increase the participation in economic activities, and if both private and public, legal or real persons were able to participate, this will result to the efficiency of financial intermediary role of the bank in collection and allocation of financial resources. the growth of information and communication technology (ict) prepared suitable backbones for the development and improvement of this type of banking. thus, by reanalyzing the problem with ict considerations, the whole problem was revisited. we tried to link financial accounts of loanees to bank databases through it. in case of establishment of this link, profit and loss calculations, also bank supervision over the investment operations of investors (loanee) becomes feasible. the latter is the main obstacle in designing profit and loss sharing banking. in this stage, we tried to design integrated systems through digital channels to encompass all affecting factors in banking operations and supervisions as a chain and the real return of deposits (investment) of depositors to be distributed through secure digital channels. by using enterprise resource planning systems (erp), customer relationship management (crm), supply chain management (scm), management executive systems (mes), human resource management (hrm), business process re-engineering (bpr) and work flow management (wfm) as core banking modules for non-usuric banking we examined this integrated design. by this design, the commercial partners, depositors, banks, central banks, real-time growth settlement system (rtgs) investors, financial markets, digital signatures authorities and also social security organizations and government were linked through information and communication technology systems. this connection could cause transparency of profit and loss sharing banking, and by using an integrated automatic system the information of depositors-bankinvestor's triangle might be designed in a way that the sharing in profit and loss of financial operations for the three groups of the triangle happens. but, unfortunately, nowadays, weak facilities and equipment of companies were obstacles to making this idea feasible and operational. this idea will still remain un-operational for all size enterprises up to the time the interested commercial partners establish sufficient development in it-based procedures. but the idea is currently operational for highly developed stock market digitally based companies. copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | afbr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 52 4. nubankco: the implementation method all these findings in these fields by presenting some papers at national and international conferences were discussed, and we got elegant comments from these processes. we understood that to solve profit and loss sharing (pls) mechanism; we should design a new solution to fit nowadays needs and be consistent with contemporary workflows in legal operational and it aspects. for these reasons, we tried to design a new method for making pls banking operations. the new design is as follows: disregarding the public or private bank ownership, we should find a solution that interest rate be determined according to the real sector return rate, and the bank becomes as intermediate of resources who receive haq-ul-amal (a fee to follow and care the depositors' rights and benefits by offering capital management services to depositor and supervising on the agent's (entrepreneur's) operations who make investment based on deposits of depositor(s)). the bank in the position of an attorney or an agent receive capital management services fee and will transfer the investment returns (profit or loss) to the depositor. according to this definition, the agent bank as public or specific attorney by using moshareka contract can use deposited deposits in shape of moshaa (joint) and/or based on the depositor's request in specific product (of type 1 or 2) or based on banks opinion (in product type 3) invest in the project or projects and distribute the return of investment among depositors. the profit and/or loss will be distributed among them according to the pre-written related instructions. in this relation, the bank does the task of financial intermediary, and after deducting her wage, as an attorney or agent will pay the depositors' shares to them. finally, we designed the operational sketch, and bank melli iran (the biggest and oldest iranian bank) proposed to put one of its important branches to implement the pilot project and test pls banking at her own cost and risk. the system was designed for three banking products:  moshareka (sharing profit and loss) on specific projects  moshareka (sharing profit and loss) on a basket of some projects  moshareka (sharing profit and loss) on the profit and loss of the bank’s branch which implements pls banking. in a jiala-based contract, the bank will make a contract with depositors to allocate their deposits to one of the above three products according to their requests to get shares in profit and loss of the entrepreneur who implements the project. in the other side of the bank, an entrepreneur is who has requested to make a contract with the bank in a moshareka-based contract. in this way, the bank operates as an intermediate that receives haq-ul-jialah or haq-olamal and allocates the deposit resources of depositors to investors. depositors, in this case, are financers and investors are those who do the entrepreneurship of the investment. the profit and loss of this investment will be distributed among depositors, investors, and bank. bank by offering this service can earn some share of profit/loss of these investment project as same as capital services management fees. that is in pls banking, the contracts between bank and depositors and between bank and investors (entrepreneurs) can be performed based on karmozd (wage) as well as sharing on profit and loss. an entrepreneur is a legal person who combines her (cash or none-cash) capital with the share of depositors in a moshareka based contract through bank intermediary to arrange a joint investment. in this method, a trustee agent (amin) is a unit who supervise the contractor operations on behalf of the bank for being honesty in carrying out the project, controlling on executive operations along with announced programs, resources allocation manner, and auditing financial statements. amin (trustee) is an institution who supervise the pls process as a representative of bank about the good governance of the project, controlling the implementations according to the declared plans, allocation of resources, optimal use of resources, … by using key indicators and financial sheets auditing. in profit and loss sharing (pls) banking, the new financial innovations are used. pls banking will use new financial instruments and innovations such as moshareka (partnership) certificates for projects with specific ends and pazireh (subscripted) certificates for endless (productive) projects. establishing of secondary exchange market for the transaction of certificates, and various insurance services will play important roles for activating and increasing the efficiency of newly established virtual markets the bank by issuing and offering the moshareka certificates and creating secondary markets for transacting moshareka certificates and designing baskets of moshareka certificates will efficiently activate this type of baking and also the other related financial institutions. implementing these arrangements needs particular instructions. we have written the necessary instructions to perform the job. moshareka certificate is no name papers issued by pls banking branch with a specific nominal price for a definite time (project implementation duration). moshareka certificate holders will share profit and loss of project prorated to their nominal price and time duration of their moshareka (participation). the bank will deliver a certificate of moshareka and/or receive a service fee for capital management services to depositors, which will be according to one of the above three products. moshareka certificate holders can transact these papers through the internet or bank counter in the cyber environment, and thus, copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | afbr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 53 this certificate can be transacted internationally as a financial asset. depositors by accessing through information portal of internet station in the secondary market of moshareka certificates or by going to one of the branches of the bank performing the pls banking and by receiving the consultation of the bank experts in the information counter will be familiarized with different moshareka products and their conditions and regulations for depositing. then she will decide to select one of the products of the three mentioned moshareka products. by making the contract and the registration, the system will automatically issue the moshareka certificate, and the moshareka certificate will be accessible for the depositor. at the end of mosharekeh period (for the products 1 and 2 regarding a single project or a basket of projects), or at the end of the financial year (regarding moshareka in profit and loss of the branch who perform the pls), accounting/auditing counter by receiving the related information will calculate profit and loss of the project or basket of projects or branch and will distribute the profit and loss of the moshareka and perform account clearing. the entrepreneur also by going to the pls banking branch will offer her investment moshareka project to the bank. the bank by declaring the conditions and regulations of moshareka to the customer through the information portal of bank's moshareka certificates or information counter located in the pls branch pays a document fee (according to its instruction) and bank will receive the proposal of the project with detailed economic, technical and financial feasibility reports and other related information. entrepreneur evaluation unit according to the background of the entrepreneurs and according to specific instructions will evaluate the entrepreneur and in case of a positive evaluation of technical ability and expertise of entrepreneur will send the related reports to the project evaluation unit. in case of a positive evaluation of the project, project evaluation unit will determine the type and amount of collaterals, guarantees, and moshareka share according to the specified instructions. the arrangement will be transmitted to the entrepreneur. after making the contract, the requested and approved resources will be paid to the entrepreneur through the contracted moshareka contract. the whole documents (according to related instructions) including: budgeting, timing plan, resource needs and resource consuming manner, project implementation, phasing, quality control, reporting, ending and delivering of the project should be delivered to amin (trustee) of the project by the entrepreneur. the reports of supervision on the project and the quality of performance of the entrepreneur should be delivered to the accounting/auditing bureau of the bank according to the predetermined time schedules. it is obvious that the reports of the amin of the project will be the criteria of the following payments of the bank to entrepreneur. at the end of the project and according to the instructions and formulas relating to the amount of profit and loss of the project and the karmozd (wage) of the bank or her share will be calculated by the software of accounting/auditing bureau. the share of the entrepreneurs and the depositors will also be determined and will be transferred to their accounts. in the case of reports of amin regarding stop or delay of the project, the amount of delay, and the loss caused by the delay will be calculated according to the given instructions. 5. nubankco: structures and instruction codes all of the activities in this method will be done based on compiled instructions. the framework and the organization of pls banking are organized has been analyzed in forms of required committees, units and departments tailored for the above definitions. all the operations will be done according to the following prewritten instructions:  instruction for evaluating the entrepreneur's ability including some guidepost about technical capabilities and financial background, a grouping of entrepreneurs regarding the type of project and types of collaterals and guarantees and previous commitments and share of investment of the entrepreneur, in three class of green, yellow and red  instruction for guarantees, hypothecs, and initial capital  instruction for necessary documents for evaluation of the project  instruction for receipts of bank  instruction for standards and obligations for supervision  instruction for reporting of entrepreneurs  accounting and auditing instructions  instructions for changes in timing and cost, including inflation effects on income and cost and net return of the project, and also the negligence of entrepreneurs resulting in a delay of commitments and changes in the timing of the projects  instruction for new moshareka (increasing the capital during the implementation of the project)  instruction for clearing and the settlement of the account of the entrepreneur  instruction for arbitration  force majeure instruction  instruction for writing the pls contract including moshareka certificate and the contract between bank and depositor, bank and amin, bank and entrepreneur  instruction for the capability of amin copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | afbr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 54  instruction for dispensing of depositors and premature account clearing  instruction for transforming moshareka certificate into corporation share in production projects  instruction for transacting moshareka certificate  instruction for moshareka certificate secondary market internet platform including information portal, registration and membership, proposing purchase/sale, communicating between seller and purchaser of moshareka certificate, registration and inquiry the structure and organization of pls banking regarding the above definition will be done within a frame of: o strategic decision-making committee in pls banking. o expert group for interpreting and revision of regulations and processes of pls banking o pls office including: legal bureau project evaluation bureau auditing/accounting bureau financial engineering management bureau (back office) amin (trustee) bureau pls branch information and consulting services bureau cash bureau to facilitate the moshareka certificate operations, a bill of "regulations of issuing moshareka certificate for pls banking" has been written to be ratified and be approved by the government. auxiliary financial instruments and innovations are about moshareka certificates baskets regarding risk determination in economic activities and determination of the weights of economic activities in the basket; and classification of moshareka certificate baskets; and moshareka certificate insurance; and typical contracts and usable forms in pls banking. in the pilot stage, a test of this type of banking can be done by establishing a corporation inside a branch of an ordinary bank, or by establishing a new branch for executing this type of banking. in the first case, the banking activity of pls will be done in parallel with other activities of the branch, but all financial, accounting, organizational and structural operations are separated from a legal point of view and are due to the newly established institute/corporation. we are convinced that the current pls system and nubankco will serve the entire humanity and contribute to increasing wealth and abundance in the entire globe. 6. executive implementation many economists around the world have done their best to eliminate riba from banking activities, but have not achieved much. in this direction, rastin banking, in compliance with sharia commands, has been compiled not only to eliminate riba but also to institutionalize various teachings of justice and islamic ethics in banking activities. good points of rastin banking in all fields of banking, financial, economic, ethical, social, and international activities are so expanded that it can be regarded as a base to improve banking structure. to increase the compliance of banking system with principles and regulations of islamic religion, and better access to safe financial activity and helping the economy to bloom, fair distribution of possibilities and opportunities, job creation and increasing the welfare of the society, the rastin banking system was designed and all banks can carry out their activities on this basis. rastin banking system is based on special operational, financial, economic, ethical, social, legal, international and organizational principles that based upon the latest scientific achievements of humankind in the field of science and technology with the aim of growth and development of the economy and banking of the society. in order to facilitate legal activities of rastin banking, some improvements have been carried out on auxiliary islamic contracts. to fulfill the necessary legislative needs of bank sharing activities, joint investment funds and facilitating social insurance activities, some new legal institutions are also defined as "fund with variable capital". to distinguish profit from riba, certain measures were also defined. in order to prevent squandering (israf) and to reform banking sources consumptions, which have worse economic and social consequences than riba, and to increase efficiency, the bank is obliged to follow specific regulations concerning its activities and finance only those projects, which have observed certain considerations and criteria in their project proposal. bank can finance projects of restoring uncultivated lands by supporting qualified applicants for the promotion of employment and development of agriculture, industry, mining, housing, and tourism in the development of different regions of the country. bank and parties involved in rastin banking contracts should observe the supervisory compiled regulations concerning financial transparency, information disclosure, and corporate governance. all contracts with the bank are copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | afbr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 55 considered as official documents and enforceable. these contracts will be carried out by a unit of execution of enforceable documents in the bank. 7. rastin pls banking in rastin pls banking as the main subsection of rastin banking, on behalf of the depositor, the bank finances entrepreneur for investment according to compiled regulations, and at the end project, the entrepreneur will distribute the profit/loss of the project in proportion to capital and duration of using that capital with the depositor. 8. rastin pls base system rastin pls base system refers to the main process and general regulations of rastin profit and loss sharing (pls) banking system. on request and on behalf of the depositor, the bank invests his fund in one of rastin pls products and instead, gives rastin certificate of the selected project to him and allocates his fund to the selected project of the entrepreneur; and supervises the implementation and execution of the project. in the end, after deducting its own commission, bank divides the profit/loss (if any) among engaged sides (depositors and entrepreneur). the bank is the agent of the depositor and is responsible for observing his rights (depositor). he must use all his expertise to reach this end. the fixed profit rate is eliminated in rastin pls banking, and the return rate is calculated according to the real return of capital in the real economy. most of the regulations of rastin pls base system are extended to its financial subsystems. this system has its own organization, structure, and working process. 9. rastin pls financial subsystems rastin pls financial subsystems refer to specific financing methods or services in rastin pls banking. these subsystems work under general regulations of rastin pls base system:  joalah financial sharing (jfs): is a method in which the bank finances entrepreneur (producer) from depositor's resources or the provided sources by the buyer.  mudarabah financial sharing (mfs): is a kind of mudarabah under rastin pls banking in which bank introduces the entrepreneur project proposal in the field of trade or transaction of commodities (commerce) to depositors.  installment financial sharing (ifs): in ifs, the installer (depositor) will finance a portion of the needed fund of the entrepreneur through the bank for a certain period of time (amortization period). the entrepreneur will pay back his share by installments and will own the total property of the project, and ifs ends.  rent financial sharing (rfs): entrepreneur temporarily donates the ownership of a part of his productive asset (assets of an operating firm), rental asset (those assets, which can be let) or dead asset (non-operating or suspended firms or uncultivated lands assets) to depositor who finances him but keeps it as mortgage. then pays back the fund received from the yields of the asset proportional to depositor's share to depositor at the end of the contract, or periodically. the original deposit of depositor will be given back to him after the end of the project. the profit of the project will be given to depositor periodically or in a lump.  bail financial sharing (bfs): is the application of deposit of depositor by the entrepreneur to produce a defined commodity and delivering the commodity or paying back its value in a future specified time.  rastin group funding (rgf): is collecting deposits of specific depositors for a specific beneficial project under the regulations of rastin banking.  rastin personal security (rps): to create competitive conditions and to increase the efficiency of social security insurance and diminishing antitrust of social security systems and pension funds, private and public pension funds are established according to rastin banking regulations. people and firms can allocate a portion of their obligatory (or optional) insurance premium payments (for himself or his employees) for social security to the funds that operate under rastin personal security (rps) and enjoy its benefits. therefore, they will be exempted from obligatory insurance premium payments equal to the payment they have paid to these funds.  rastin social takaful (rst): benevolent people can deposit their funds at banks for charity purposes, and the bank will be allowed to pay profit (or the principal as well) of deposit to needy people, in the form of a loan or non-returnable payments (according to the depositor request).  sponsor crowd funding (scf): is the process of collecting non-returnable funds for a specific protective goal of an entrepreneur through the bank via social networks.  peer to peer loan (ppl): is the process of collecting funds for loan-financing the entrepreneur through the bank and via social networks.  rastin swap bond (rsb): is based upon mubadalah (swap) contract between mobadil (swapper) and motebadil (swapee) in which the durations and substances of swaps are equal for first and second swaps. motebadil (swapee) issues the bond and owes to mobadil equal to the nominal value of the bond, and copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | afbr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 56 should pay this amount (badal) to mobadil (swapper) at maturity. the issuer (motebadil) is obliged to give the mobaadal for the same amount and period as badal to mobadil. he can choose a combination of amount and period that the multiplication of amount by the period of mobaddal be equal to that of badal. at second maturity, mobadil is committed to returning mobaddal to motebadil.  no interest rate is involved in these bonds, and they are of four kinds: central bank rastin swap bond, treasury rastin swap bond, bank rastin swap bond, and commercial rastin swap bond. they can be in domestic money or foreign exchange.  rastin swap deposit (rsd): is a new banking deposit account, which is interest-free and is based on swap contract in rastin banking. in this depositing by opening the deposit, the depositor is entitled to use an interest-free loan to the amount and duration that his resources have been being deposited and then return the money back to the bank.  rastin swap card (rsc): is a bank card, and has no interest rate and is issued based on the swap contract in rastin banking. in rastin swap card there are two periods. in the first period, card issuer lends money to the cardholder; and in the second period borrows money from cardholder instead. at the first stage cardissuer credits a certain amount of money for specific time duration to the card of cardholder and requests the cardholder to deposit the same amount for the same period at the end of the cited time duration (first maturity) in the issuer's deposit account. 10. rastin certificates rastin certificates are a collection of designed certificates in rastin pls banking base system and its financial subsystems. these certificates can be anonymous or named papers, which are transferable and negotiable online through the website of the bank and are issued with a nominal price and for a certain period. the owners of these certificates share the results of the project proportional to nominal price and participation period of the certificate. various rastin certificates and their characteristics according to the kind of participation in the pls base system or its financial subsystems regarding the type of project and the asset used as:  pls base: musharakah (participation) and pazireh (subscripted) certificates.  jfs: future certificate.  mfs: mudarabah and periodic mudarabah certificates.  ifs: ordinary mughasatah (installment), rental mughasatah, and musharakah mughasatah certificates.  rfs: mortgage sharing, periodic mortgage sharing, mortgage mudarabah (commerce), periodic mortgage mudarabah, mortgage muzaraah (cultivating), periodic muzaraah, mortgage mugharasah (planting), periodic mortgage mugharasah, mortgage musaghah (irrigation), periodic mortgage musaghah, mortgage istisna (industrial/manufacturing), periodic mortgage istisna and rental certificates.  bfs: bail certificate.  rps: social security, personal security and pension security certificates.  rst: takaful and loan certificates. 11. complementary systems complementary systems of rastin banking refer to innovations, platforms, and supplementary rastin banking methods and include the following systems:  rastin certificate market (rcm): is a web-based settlement system for the transaction of interest-free rastin certificates and rastin swap bond in rastin pls bank.  crowd funding system (cfs): this system is a web-based system, which collects funds for sponsor crowd funding (scf) and peer to peer loan (ppl) projects via social networks.  operation control and monitoring system (ocm): is a computerized web-based system that provides the possibility of online inspection and control of bank personnel activities.  mortgage securitization system (mss): this system facilitates people to change their assets into guarantee certificates through the bank.  collateral registration system (crs): is an online web-based integrated system for registering movable and immovable assets.  serial commitments clearance (scc): provides the necessary arrangements for settlement of obligations of people who are in debt to someone from one hand, while they are creditors to someone else in a chain of debits and credits in a set of people.  interbank withdrawal protocol (iwp): is an interbank agreement that allows the bank to withdraw its claims online from other debtor's accounts o at different banks when the debtor's account at the agent bank is empty. copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | afbr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 57  non-usury scripless security settlement system (nssss): this is an online integrated web-based settlement system at the central bank for the transaction of rastin certificates and rastin swap bonds coordination and supervision.  money laundering detection system (mld): provides necessary structural and electronic basis to compare tax information and bank information to discover money laundering. 12. conclusion to design operational islamic banking, we tried to mix theoretical and experimental knowledge to develop rastin banking. rastin banking is a completely new solution to banking based on islamic and ethical teachings with the scientific and technological approach. some parts and modules of rastin banking have been implemented in bank melli iran. the installed parts of the system are now functioning and have attracted depositors and investors, and since the procedures and instructions are well defined, the bank's staff is performing its procedures easily. the results of the test system are very satisfactory. rastin banking is a nationwide project with lots of subtle technical points. this system is an open-source banking model, and all banks around the globe can easily install and use it. we wish rastin banking could put important steps to remove riba and establish islamic banking throughout the globe. references the persian and english documents of rastin banking, including a detailed explanation of this banking method, are accessible through http://www.bidabad.com in full texts in persian and english languages. “draft of rastin banking bill” and its “operational bylaw of rastin banking” can also be accessed through the cited link. bidabad, bijan, new operational islamic banking system, volume one, theoretical foundations, lap lambert academic publishing, omniscriptum gmbh & co. kg, 2014, isbn: 978-3-659-54463-7. http://www.amazon.com/rastin-banking-operational-theoreticalfoundations/dp/3659544639/ref=sr_1_2?s=books&ie=utf8&qid=1402563518&sr=1-2 http://pub.npdr.ir/product/rastin-banking/ bidabad, bijan, new operational islamic banking system, volume two, applicational issues, lap lambert academic publishing, omniscriptum gmbh & co. kg, 2014, isbn: 978-3-659-55210-6. http://www.amazon.com/rastin-banking-ii-operationalapplication/dp/3659552100/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=utf8&qid=1404643353&sr=1-1 http://pub.npdr.ir/product/rastin-banking-volume-ii/ bidabad, bijan, economic-juristic analysis of usury in consumption and investment loans and contemporary jurisprudence shortages in exploring legislator commandments. proceeding of the 2nd international islamic banking conference. the monash university of malaysia. 9-10 september 2004. reprinted in: national interest, journal of the center for strategic research, vol. 2, no. 1, winter 2006, pp. 72-90. tehran, iran. republished in (revised): international journal of islamic business & management, 3(2), 115, 2019 . https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/ijibm/article/view/275 http://www.bidabad.com/doc/reba-en.pdf bidabad, bijan, non-usury bank corporation (nubankco), the 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2019, cribfb | afbr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 1; 2019 61 bidabad, bijan, mahshid sherafati, sustainable financing and anti-squandering measures in rastin banking. international journal of law and management (ijlma), emerald group publishing limited, vol: 59, issue: 6, pp. 939-949, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1108/ijlma-04-2016-0037 http://www.bidabad.com/doc/esraf-bank-resource-en.pdf bidabad, bijan, serial commitments clearance (scc) in rastin banking. international journal of law and management (ijlma), vol. 57, iss: 6, 2015, pp. 600-609, emerald group publishing limited. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijlma-02-2015-0007 http://www.bidabad.com/doc/scc-paper-en.pdf bidabad, bijan, rastin swap deposit (rsd): a financial account of rastin banking. tehran, 2015. international journal of islamic banking and finance research, 3(2), 17-23, 2019. https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/ijibfr/article/view/270 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of financial regulation and compliance, vol. 25 issue: 2, pp.114-132, 2017 . http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jfrc-09-2016-0078 bidabad, bijan, general regulatory framework in rastin profit and loss sharing banking (part i-operational context). journal of business and finance in emerging markets, jbfem, [s.l.], v. 1, n. 1, p. 11-26, may 2018. issn 2580-5568. https://doi.org/10.32770/jbfem.vol111-26 http://www.bidabad.com/doc/rastin-regulatory-en-i.pdf bidabad, bijan, general regulatory framework in rastin profit and loss sharing banking (part ii-legal groundwork). journal of business and finance in emerging markets, jbfem, jbfem, [s.l.], v. 1, n. 2, p. 109-126, nov. 2018. issn 2580-5568. https://doi.org/10.32770/jbfem.vol1109-126 http://www.bidabad.com/doc/rastin-regulatory-en-ii.pdf bidabad, bijan, general regulatory framework in rastin profit and loss sharing banking (part iii-auxiliary provisions). journal of business and finance in emerging markets, jbfem, may 2019, vol 2, no. 1, pp. 51-65. issn 2580-5568. https://doi.org/10.32770/jbfem.vol251-66 http://www.bidabad.com/doc/rastin-regulatory-en-iii.pdf copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. this is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). https://doi.org/10.1108/ijlma-04-2016-0037 http://www.bidabad.com/doc/esraf-bank-resource-en.pdf http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijlma-02-2015-0007 http://www.bidabad.com/doc/scc-paper-en.pdf https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/ijibfr/article/view/270 http://www.bidabad.com/doc/rsd-paper-en.pdf https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/ijibfr/article/view/271 http://www.bidabad.com/doc/rsc-paper-en.pdf%0d http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijlma-07-2015-0037 http://www.bidabad.com/doc/rastin-ethic-banking-en.pdf http://www.bidabad.com/doc/rastin-mosharekat-accounting-en.pdf http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jfrc-09-2016-0078 https://doi.org/10.32770/jbfem.vol111-26 http://www.bidabad.com/doc/rastin-regulatory-en-i.pdf https://doi.org/10.32770/jbfem.vol1109-126 http://www.bidabad.com/doc/rastin-regulatory-en-ii.pdf https://doi.org/10.32770/jbfem.vol251-66 http://www.bidabad.com/doc/rastin-regulatory-en-iii.pdf american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 2; 2020 issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 published by cribfb, usa 13 how self-control impact’s on happiness and satisfaction with life with moderating role of locus of control sajid hussain bahauddinzakariya university multan, pakistan e-mail: sajid.hussain6441@gmail.com muhammad baqir university of education lahore, multan campus, pakistan e-mail: baqiralisiddique@gmail.com k. m. anwarul islam associate professor department of business administration the millennium university, dhaka, bangladesh phd candidate university of selangor, malaysia e-mail: ai419bankingdu@gmail.com samra asif bahauddinzakariya university multan, pakistan e-mail: samraahmedtarar@gmail.com abstract self-control is by all explanations a basic worth affecting how others see us and how we see ourselves. the basic aim of the study is to elaborate the vice versa relationship among the factor to test whether certain psychological variable which increases the satisfaction with life. component of happiness with the influence of locus of control is correlated with each other which is we find in this research. the participants in the study were 307 students of the different institutes who fill questionnaires through snowball sampling. this had a significant huge relationship with the locus of control. in this study, we use a different technique to find the relationship with data. firstly we test the reliability of the questionnaire which is used by the different researcher in their research article after this we find the correlation which shows the positive result among the variable. subsequently, manova and other test were applied in this research to emphasize how self-control plays a major role to enhance the level of happiness which discovered the true meaning of satisfaction. this study recommended that if students and people are good at self-control elements in different situations then they will be happier and satisfied with their life. moreover, the investigation uncovered that self-control has emphatically corresponded with happiness, regularity feeling, and satisfaction with life. research on happiness has caused it conceivable to better comprehend human behaviour in different parts of life. keywords: self-control, satisfaction with life, happiness, locus of control. mailto:sajid.hussain6441@gmail.com mailto:baqiralisiddique@gmail.com mailto:samraahmedtarar@gmail.com https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 2; 2020 14 introduction self-control is one of the most prevalent research topics which entail strong definition confines to permit overview of the consequences. there are some variations between researchers to understand the concept, due to the element that self-control is a complicated phenomenon that comprises many psychological functions and has effective impact on human ordinary performance (edward nęcka, 2019).‖self-control is defined ―as the ability to modify and control abundantly response tendencies subsequent in the reticence of disagreeable behaviours though stimulating required ones to accomplish the long period objective (de ridder, 2012).definitely the most significant challenge in the present life is happiness, which highly effect to determine the genuine significance of life is happiness. happiness is most substantial factor which reduces the impermanence rate among all human and raise life expectancy between individuals (beatle et al., 2015). happiness according to develop model by seligman (peterson, 2005), consist of three directions: desire, sense and engagement. positive reactions inspire to engage in several activities and it‘s favourable for completion of task at a proficiency level. consequently, they add to the accomplishment of the success, which provide more positive emotions. a particular wisdom of sense leads to goal achievement. the existence of pleasure (present-oriented) and sense of significance (future-oriented) enhance the contribution of the happiness. universal life satisfaction, when evaluate on a scale of variety from the assessment of one‘s life as highly satisfied to very dissatisfying (diener & inglehart, 2013).happiness is absolutely one of the greatest vision of mankind and every one try is ideal to accomplish it. the ultimate level of happiness arises on individual‘s valuation of their self and lives. the judgement can be thought such as the assessment prepared concerning fulfilment or they can be expressive which are exposed in reaction to the occasions throughout everyday life (oswald, et, al, & flower, 2004). here we characterize happiness as it is regularly characterized in the literature, that is, as far as continuous positive effect, high life fulfilment, and inconsistent negative effect. these three builds are the three essential segments of abstract prosperity, as indicated by (lyubomksky, 2005).associate the authenticity of thinking about them as displays of the equivalent hidden develop, we discover that the methods are outstandingly corresponded and normally produce a solitary factor after undesirable influence has remained recoded (sheldon, 1995). it is critical to note too that we apply a personalized meaning of happiness single that ordinarily depends on individuals' self-reports. we accept this is proper and even vital assumed our opinion that happiness must be characterized from the point of view of the individual. in other words, satisfaction is essentially an abstract singularity for which the last appointed authority must to be "whoever lives inside an individual's skin (diener e. &., 1995).happier people have more postive vision towards life or aparticular events. they have maximum smooth of pleasure towards their family, profession ,education and all the other aspect of whole life (eysenk, 1996). rotter (1996)clarifies the the strengthening which are elementary indicators of individual‘s attitude in long tenure locus of control in his social knowledge philosophy, as. the idea of locus of control is wide concepts in the perspective to laern difficult things and behaviour‘s alteration. this thought protect the idea that peoples during their lives, examine the actions as their arrogances or they trust that those suitation result from accidental, luck or external forces (erdogan, 2003).characters with inside loc (locus of control) are vigilant, attentive, leading, faithful on victory, self-assured, and creative. on the further side, the characters with peripheral locus of are least careful, high-flown by the cluster supporters, simply influenced by exterior forces, fewer self-assured and they show unstable presentations (rotter, 1975).people spread out two mechanism insolences as inner and external by seeing that the supports which they get from https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 2; 2020 15 their earlier capabilities consequence from their specific behaviour or outer forces (cetin, 2008). in a progression of distributions, we have shown and utilized an instrument for self-detailing life satisfaction as a social marker of how much subjects have figured out how to adapt to various parts of life also, life as an entire. level of satisfaction with life as an entire can be viewed as synonymous with quality of life. an elective view, in any case, and one to which we buy in, is that to be happy with life as an entire is to be glad subjects who are at least fulfilled (scale grades 5 and 6) with life as entire we consider to be upbeat under various conditions it has been demonstrated that undesirable changes in capacity to keep being a functioning member in life lead to a low degree of satisfaction in at least one spaces, and to a low degree of happiness (braholm et, 1998) .previous many resercher have done work on selfcontrol,happiness,satisfaction with life and locus of control in different realtion but in this reserch my objective is to find out how self-control depend on happiness and satisfaction wit lifewith infulenc e of locus of control. though self control is most important factor to perform any kind of activity in craving behaviour.to discourse these familiarity gaps, this article examines the observations of self-control affect on happiness, satisfaction with life with the infuence of locus of control. this analysis help to understand the levels of happiness which people are good in self control at different suitation and how they are satisfied with their life by the affecting factor of locus of control.this understanding practical inferences as will be validated later in this article. aim of the study the ―aim of this study‖ was to identify the association between the self-control with happiness and satisfaction with life for measuring the influence of the locus of control which is take in this research as moderating variable on the dependent variable which is happiness, and gratification with life among the students of the different university. we tested that how the self-control is effecting on happiness which makes the positive or the negative in the consequence related to the life or at any stage of life. as responsive study had recommended that there is substantial impact of the self-control on both dependent variables. to test the relationship we develop hypothesis. literature review self-control self-control has been dissimilar among the most valued assets of human (hoffman, etal, 2013).many resercher exploring the clear the concept that self-control as ability or capacity to manage ,control and impressed, desires and have potential to do activities (hoffman, etal, 2013).self-control is the skill to control and adapt reponses in order to escape undersirable behaviours, to rise in desirable ones, and reach long-term ambition. many research has exposed that keeping self-control can be important for health and happiness. people regularly used variation of terms for self-control, inculding determination, grit,self-discipline, willpower,and fortitude. (moffitt, et, al, & arseneault l, 2011).psychologists basically defines self-control as: the capacity to control practices so as to evade temptations and to accomplish objectives.the ability to delay satisfaction and resist undesirable behaviours or needs. a partial resource that can be down. (duckworth a, 2013).researchers have originate that persons who obligate greater self-control are happier and satisfied with their life. .the psychological literature on self-control has demonstrated that people who have strong self-control are generally experienced additional nearness interpersonal relationships (koval, 2015). however it‘s possible that persons who have https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 2; 2020 16 extraordinary level of self-control will cooperate with other and they should seldom face the conflicts (martinsson, 2014). happiness happiness can be described as optimistic or negative reactions that concern the optimal level of satisfaction in human life (diener & etal, 1995).according to (jain & saeed, 2012)happiness is results from pleasant feelings of one‘s emotion in addition to have postive farme of mind towards something. those people who are happy they offer more help to other‘s in critical situation and they are creative, highly innovative in doing things, socially active in society, and benevolent mentally and physically. (diener & dean, 2008).an alternative forecast is that feeling of happiness is relate on different type of culture. for instance, fair of warmth is greater in wealthier countries as compare to poorer countries, where might be happiness depend more fulfillment of basic needs. (diener & tay, 2011).there was a major improvement in our skill to evaluate happiness and our self-assurance in the capacity of happiness (biswas-diener, 2008). this point is so significant that is deserves more consideration. it is hard to elaborate the scientific study of happiness without considering confidence to measure happiness. happiness can remain simply understood by way of a replacement of satisfaction with one‘s life, in the alliance of wellbeing as advised by (diener). nevertheless, the author never actually saw satisfaction of life in term of assessment. the meaning of happiness is that a person is glad or satisfied with their life, without wondering about the presence and absence of particular feelings, but sometime positive results of one‘s estimate at certain values (shin & irvine, 2015).happiness can be characterized as how many individuals absolutely evaluate their life circumstance. (veenhoven, 1996) what‘s more, relies upon an assortment of individual and social qualities. these qualities vary in the fact that they are so critical to every person and are estimated by ordinal positioning. happiness is regularly characterized as far as carrying on with a decent life, in preference to humble emotion. locus of control the idea of loc (―locus of control‖), which started in the social learning concept of american clinician rotter (1966), manages how much individuals have learnt to see their lives' incidents as either heavily influenced by their own inner attitudes, attributes, or under outside control (reich, 2017).the locus of control indicates to a person's observation where he recognizes the results of events throughout his life as capacity of his behaviour or qualities. in this manner, the locus of control has a resilient relationship with a person‘s behaviour. locus of control, as directed by (rotter j. , 1966) indicates to one's faith in their capacities to control life events. a somebody with an inside loc (―locus of control‖) accepts that consequences are identified with their behaviour or individual security while a specific with an outer loc(locus of control) accepts that results are not identified with their conduct however to outside powers past their control. according to (marks, 1998) people with an exterior loc (―locus of control‖) may distinguish existence happenings to be regulator by accidental, or luck. although the people who have inner locus of control are further probable to transform their behaviour subsequent as compare to external loc(―locus of control‖). many researchers recommended that motivation is related to the locus of control when peoples and mostly students given control over instruction. (keller et al, 1983) stated that locus of control has been extremely linked with the approaches and then study behaviours of dissimilar subjects who remained actually permitted to resistor teaching. because of its significance, locus of control turned into a critical variable in different research https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 2; 2020 17 fields. where the importance of the develop of apparent control by inner or outer elements has been presented as indicated by the definition of locus of control is an idea as to whether the life of an individual is constrained by himself or herself or by some outside forces. an individual‘s comprehensive opinion about inner (self) versus outside (situation or others) control is called locus of control approving to (nelson, 1997). locus of control is view of who controls results and it has been perceived that this observation is significant in shaping behaviour (harris, 2006). satisfaction with life ―satisfaction with life‖ is a person‘s intellectual appraisals of complete value of the life or perspectives toward exact aspect such as intimate, colleagues, groups and the society (suldo, al s.m., & al k.n riley, 2006). life-satisfaction, its antecedents and outcomes have been read experimentally for different purposes. life satisfaction is characterized as people's emotional valuations of the nature for their survives (diener & al e., 2013). life satisfactions characterized as people's intellectual appraisals of the nature of their lives. many researchers have originate that satisfaction with life relates to various positive consequences including subjective wellbeing (gilman, al r, & s, 1997),completing connection with others, optimum physical effective(lewis, 2010),family relationship worth (dew, 1994) important of self –esteem (zhang, al l., & j., 2002), positive association with in classroom with others, self confidence in class school commitment (doğan, u., & çelik, e., 2014) personal pleasure forgiveness (eldeleklioğlu, j., 2015), and benevolent attachment (bendayan, 2013).satisfaction with life mentions to a reasoning judgmental method said by (shin, d. c., & johnson, d. m., 1978) define satisfaction with life as a worldwide appraisal of an individual's person satisfaction as indicated by his select criteria. one of the most ensconces pointers of wellbeing and positive working among new people (s., 2006) .satisfaction with life suggests to a judgmental and intellectual procedure (diener & e. r., 1985) in which persons estimate the worth of their life created on a number of criteria. ―satisfaction with life‖ is an individual opinion broad-spectrum to evaluate the entirely of one‘s life or other some characteristic of life likewise life with family and academic experience; conclusively satisfaction with life is the balance consideration of among individual aim and currently state of the particular person. in other way the superior gap amongst the level of singular desires and the current state of the person is ultimately effect the satisfaction of the life negatively (pavot, 1993). hypothesis this study is determined the connection between self-control, happiness satisfaction with life accenting on mediating consequence of locus of control. h1: self-control is positively related to happiness. h2: people who have strong locus of control have significant impact on satisfaction with life. h3: locus of control moderator has significant relationship with happiness. h4: locus of control moderator has significant relationship with satisfaction with life. https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 2; 2020 18 theoretical framework and research model figure 1. conceptual framework research model a review survey was utilized to accumulate the essential data. the questionnaire is composed of four scales, namely self-control, locus of control, happiness and ―satisfaction with life‖. this study is designed to analyse the relationship of ―self-control‖ with happiness and satisfaction of life with the moderating variable locus of control is significantly interrelated to each other. the theoretical frame work depicting this relationship presumed that is positive. it is context the base study considers in the series of qualitative studies. its consist basic primary approached (questionnaire). the questionnaire is composed of two different type of scales included nominal, (yes, no) likert scale which is start from (strongly agree, to strongly disagree) methodology data collection tools in this study we are used questionnaire method. for observing the result which consist only 67 questions to get the primary data. procedure respondents were invited to participate in study on volunteer basis. the questionnaire were deliver to the participant were in two ways. one is hard copy distributed among students and second one is online administrative (google form).the whole process of answering took about 50 minutes for completing one questionnaire. data analysis the data analysis included calculation of descriptive statistics for the variables via the questionnaire for overall the measure. the reliability of data consistency is calculated through different testing tools. included mean, median mode, correlation, regression or cronbach‘s alpha were utilized in order to influence the capacity and direction of correspondence among the variable. happiness satisfication with life self-control . locus of control control https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 2; 2020 19 measure the participants filled the finalized questionnaires. further they were requested to provide basic demographic information, which is categorized on gender, phase, and conjugal status. we second-hand the subsequent methods. the self-control scale by (tangney et al, 2004)was used to amount constitution self-control. basically it‘s consist of 13 statements in the adopted questionnaire (e.g., ―i have a hard time breaking bad habits‘‘) regarded on a 5 option. here we test the reliability of the scale through spss software in which we find cronbach‘s α which .495 is. the total number of statement which is estimated here is 12 and 1 is excluded here to balance the reliability of the scale due to increase the reliability. below the table show the reliability scale of self-control. “self-control” ―reliability statistics‖ ―cronbach's alpha‖ ―n of items‖ .495 12 the oxford happiness questionnaire was created by psychologists (hills, 2002) was utilized to quantify the degree to which individuals measured their happiness. it contains 29 items regarded on a 6-point scale. an instance item is: ―i don‘t feel particularly pleased with way i am‘‘ the value of cronbach‘s α was .773 which is acceptable for the reliability. below the table show the value of reliability scale of happiness. “happiness” ―reliability statistics‖ ―cronbach's alpha‖ ―n of items‖ .773 29 the satisfaction with life scale ( (diener, 1985)comprising of five statements anticipated to instrument worldwide intellectual decisions of ―satisfaction with life‖(e.g., ―so far i have gotten the important things i want in life‘‘) the following are based on five statements scale. utilizing the 1 – 7 points‘ .the reliability of the scale (cronbach‘s α) was .665 which is questionable and below the table shows the value of the satisfaction with life. “satisfaction with life” ―reliability statistics ―cronbach's alpha‖ ―n of items‖ .655 5 the ―locus of control‖ scale developed by (bernardi, 1997) this scale is used to measure the effect of the locus of control on the self-control, happiness, and satisfaction with life. in this examination the locus of control is use as the moderating which show the influence. loc consist on the 20 statement. (e.g. ―i don‘t really believe in luck or chance‘‘) the result scored by giving option which is (yes—or –no).the reliability of the scale check through the software https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 2; 2020 20 spss. total number of the statement is 20 but to increase the reliability of the scale we exclude the 2 statement which effect the reliability of the scale after this the chronbach‘s alpha value of the 18 items is ―(cronbach‘s α)‖ is .464. it‘s approximately near to the 5 which is place on questionable in chronbach‘s alpha. the below table show the reliability statistics of the variable. “locus of control” ―reliability statistics‖ ―cronbach's alpha‖ ―n of items‖ .464 18 results and discussion this section reports on and deliberates the consequences of the survey. as we can see in the tables 1 to 6. in this we make questionnaire on the google from for collecting response and we get 307 responses as the sample of the study. correlations between the self-control, happiness and satisfaction with life which shown in table no 1 reveals that self-control positively associated with the happiness and satisfaction with life. along these lines, presently you comprehend what the positive or negative sign methods on a connection coefficient. it discloses to you whether the two factors move a similar way or inverse bearings. it likewise discloses to you the general course of the line you would see on as scatter plot indicating the entirety of the individuals used to calculate the correlation. at whatever point we graph two variables that move in similar way, the mark we draw will for the most part go from the base left to the upper right of the diagram. we call this a positive relationship. a positive connection implies that the two factors move a similar way as one goes up, the different goes up, or the other way around. we call this a positive relationship since when we do the condition to think of our connection coefficient, the outcome will be a positive number. it tends to be somewhere in the range of +0.01 as far as possible up to +1.00. in this we see there is a positive correlation between the dependent or independent variable with the effect of ―locus of control‖ and the value of the all variable is significant which is shown in table below. table 1. correlations ―selfcontrol‖ ―happiness‖ ―satisfaction with life‖ ―locus of control‖ ―selfcontrol‖ ―pearson correlation‖ 1 -.028 -.088 -.270 ** ―sig. (2-tailed)‖ .620 .123 .000 ―n‖ ―307‖ ―307‖ 307 307 ―happiness‖ ―pearson correlation‖ -.028 1 .479 ** .377 ** ―sig. (2-tailed)‖ .620 .000 .000 ―n‖ ―307‖ ―307‖ 307 307 ―satisfaction with life‖ ―pearson correlation‖ -.088 .479 ** 1 .293 ** https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 2; 2020 21 ―sig. (2-tailed)‖ .123 .000 .000 ―n‖ ―307‖ 307 307 307 ―locus of control‖ ―pearson correlation‖ -.270 ** .377 ** .293 ** 1 ―sig. (2-tailed)‖ .000 .000 .000 ―n‖ 307 307 307 307 the descriptive statistics for the variable of self-control happiness, satisfaction with and locus of control are presented in table 2. this is categorizing by minimum, maximum, mean and most important standard deviation. as, can be perceived, women filled the high number of response which demonstrated that over all the self-control have optimistic influence on their life in different aspect. while in the descriptive statistics for all variables the lowest scores are beyond the objective the maximum 1 is place on the 3rd value which is the dependent variable satisfaction with life and here all the means are exceeding the average. previously we test the reliability of the each scale which is approximately is acceptable. the values of means in the table indicate that satisfaction with life have higher value when you have significantly command our the self-control then there is positive impact on the satisfaction with life as the mean value proportionally shown in the table the value of means is (p< 3.65472). in summary, for this illustration respondents give their positive emotion regarding their happiness, and satisfaction with life and flourishing the measure of the experienced about the self-control. people who have strongly balance their self-control are efficiently happier and associated satisfied with their life in the perspective of the utilizing the locus of control. the whole variance between the all dependent and independent variable is get more positively effect is satisfaction with life (mean difference ‗‘p<3.65472‘‘ significantly relate with the std.deviation ‗‘p<1.055643‘‘).in this happiness added ‗‘ =.533898‘‘ to explained the influence of self-control. we were likewise keen on researching how much satisfaction with life variance was represented by happiness. (variance = 0.899472). in this descriptive statistics the hypothesis h1 is prove that self-control is definitely related to happiness. table 2. descriptive statistics ―n‖ ―minimum‖ ―maximum‖ ―mean‖ ―std. deviation‖ self-control 307 1.417 4.167 2.77389 .478922 happiness 307 1.621 5.276 3.37066 .533898 ―satisfactionwith life‖ 307 1.000 6.600 3.65472 1.055643 ―locusof control‖ 307 1.167 2.000 1.55248 .156171 valid n (listwise) 307 manova test results following test results are statistically insignificant which is desired one because here we are in the favour that null hypothesis should not be rejected. h0 the watched covariance frameworks https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 2; 2020 22 of the reliant factors are equivalent across groups. here p value is .308 that is greater than the 0.05 in the light of above result we fail to reject the null hypothesis that is desirable. if the box‘s m test results are significant and the null hypothesis has been rejected than further in multivariate analysis table, we will analyse the results of pillai‘s trace test. on the other hand, if results are insignificant what's more, neglect to dismiss the null theory than researcher is advised to analyse the wilks‘ lamba results is in the case here. table 3. box's test of equality of covariance matrices ―box's m‖ ―71‖.930 ―f‖ ―1‖.083 ―df1‖ 60 ―df2‖ 11817.003 sig. .308 multivariate tests summarize results of wilks‘ lambda which is a proportion of the present of change in the dependent factors that is *not explained* by contrasts in the degree of the independent variable. wilks' lambda differs somewhere in the range of 1 and zero(i.e., no variance that isn't clarified by the independent variable). here independent variable is selfcontrol (sc) while the mediating variable is locus of control (lc) here the value of wilks‘ lambda is 0.991 which is much higher and close to 1, associated f is 1.312, sig value is 0.271 which is greater than the 0.05 it means an insignificant multivariate main effect for self-control sc, wilks‘ λ = .991, f (2, 276) = 1.312, sig > 0.05, fractional eta squared (related with the fundamental impact ofself-control)= 0.009 and observed power (the power to detect the main effect )=0.283. these are very poor of self-control on dependent variables while lc was used as a mediating variable. while the mediating variable is locus of control (lc) here the value of wilks‘ lambda is 0.711 which is better result as compare to independent variables, associated f is 3.414, sig value is 0.00 which is < 0.05 it means a significant multivariate main effect for locus of control lc, wilks‘ λ = .711, f (30, 552) = 3.414, sig < 0.05, partial eta squared (associated with the main effect of self-control)= 0.156 and observed power (the power to detect the main effect )=1.0. these are better results as compare to the self-control effect. table 4. multivariate tests ―effect value‖ ―va lue‖ ―f‖ ―hypoth esis df‖ ―error df‖ ―si g‖. ―parti al eta squar ed‖ ―nonce nt. parame ter‖ ―obser ved power‖ d ―intercept‖ ―pillai's‖―trac e‖ .571 183.8 39 b 2.000 276.00 0 .000 .571 367.67 7 1.000 ―wilks' ―lambda‖ .429 183.8 39 b 2.000 276.00 0 .000 .571 367.67 7 1.000 ―hotelling's‖― trace‖ 1.33 2 183.8 39 b 2.000 276.00 0 .000 .571 367.67 7 1.000 ―roy's‖―larg 1.33 183.8 2.000 276.00 .000 .571 367.67 1.000 https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 2; 2020 23 est‖―root‖ 2 39 b 0 7 sc ―pillai's‖ ―trace‖ ―.00 9‖ ―1.31 2‖ b ―2.000‖ ―276.0 00‖ .271 .009 2.625 .283 ―wilks‖ ―lambda‖ ―.99 1‖ ―1.31 2‖ b ―2.000‖ ―276.0 00‖ .271 .009 2.625 .283 ―hotelling's‖― trace‖ .010 ―1.31 2‖ b ―2.000‖ ―276.0 00‖ .271 .009 2.625 .283 ―roy's‖―larg est‖―root‖ .010 ―1.31 2‖ b ―2.000‖ ―276.0 00‖ .271 .009 2.625 .283 lc ―pillai's‖―trac e‖ .296 3.202 30.000 554.00 0 .000 .148 96.071 1.000 ―wilks‖―lam bda‖ .711 3.414 b 30.000 552.00 0 .000 .156 102.41 5 1.000 ―hotelling's‖― trace‖ .396 3.626 30.000 550.00 0 .000 .165 108.77 9 1.000 ―roy's‖―larg est‖―root‖ .369 6.807 c 15.000 277.00 0 .000 .269 102.10 7 1.000 .330 ―gender‖ ―pillai's‖―trac e‖ .011 1.559 b 2.000 276.00 0 .212 .011 3.118 ―wilks‖―lam bda‖ .989 1.559 b 2.000 276.00 0 .212 .011 3.118 .330 ―hotelling's‖― trace‖ .011 1.559 b 2.000 276.00 0 .212 .011 3.118 .330 ―roy's‖―larg est‖―root‖ .011 1.559 b 2.000 276.00 0 .212 .011 3.118 .330 lc * ―gender‖ ―pillai's‖―trac e‖ .105 1.285 24.000 554.00 0 .165 .053 30.851 .924 ―wilks‖ ―lambda‖ .897 1.284 b 24.000 552.00 0 .166 .053 30.827 .923 ―hotelling's‖― trace‖ .112 1.283 24.000 550.00 0 .167 .053 30.803 .923 ―roy's‖―larg est‖―root‖ .074 1.716 c 12.000 277.00 0 .063 .069 20.586 .862 levene's trial of equity of error variances null hypothesis is h0: the error difference of the dependent variables is equivalent across groups. it is desirable that null hypothesis should not be rejected. levene‘s test of equally of error variances f-test results are 1.001 and 1.355 for happiness and fulfilment with life separately suggest we fail to reject null hypothesis and their corresponding sig. values are 0.469, and 0.114 which all are greater than 5% confirm that there is equal variance (homosksedastic) across dependent variables (happiness with satisfaction with life and satisfaction with existence with happiness) it is desirable. https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 2; 2020 24 table 5. levene‘s test of equality of error variances ―tests the null hypothesis that the error variance of the dependent variable is equal across groups‖ tests of among-subjects effects table summarize the results of individual variables and show its significance. f stats values of independent variable self-control on each dependent variable happiness and satisfaction with life are 2.6 and 0.1491 respectively and their corresponding sig values are greater than 5% for happiness and satisfaction with life it means self-control has no impact on happiness and satisfaction with life. partial eta squared for happiness and satisfaction with life are 0.009 and 0.001 respectively indicate strength of impact is week. finally observed power for happiness and satisfaction with life is 0.358 and 0.06 respectively indicated self-control has low power to detect happiness and satisfaction with life. for both insignificant variables, results are very week. locus of control shown significant impact on both dependent variables f static is 6.264 and 3.109 respectively for both dependent variables. sig value is lesser than 0.05 has significant impact on happiness and satisfaction with life. partial eta squared is .253 and .144 respectively indicate strength of impact is good. finally, the observed power for happiness and satisfaction with life is 1.000 and .998 respectively has power to detect happiness and satisfaction with life for significant results are good. table 6. tests of between-subjects effects ―sour ce‖ ―depe ndent variabl e‖ ―typ e iii sum of squa res‖ ―df ‖ ―mean‖― square‖ ―f‖ ―si g‖. ―partial‖―eta‖ ―squared‖ ―noncent‖―p arameter‖ ―obse rved power ‖ c corre cted mode l happin ess satisfa ction with life 24.88 7 a 57.50 1 b 29 29 .858 1.983 3.81 3 1.93 7 .00 0 .00 4 .285 .169 110.590 56.183 1.000 .997 interc ept happin ess satisfa ction with 80.64 1 110.7 06 1 1 80.641 110.706 358. 337 108. 168 .00 0 .00 0 .564 .281 358.337 108.168 1.000 1.000 ―f‖ ―df1‖ ―df2‖ ―sig‖ happiness ―1.001‖ ―28‖ ―278‖ .469 satisfaction with life 1.355 28 278 .114 https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 2; 2020 25 life sc happin ess satisfa ction with life .578 .153 1 1 .578 1 .153 2.56 7 .149 .11 0 .69 9 .009 .001 2.567 .149 .358 .067 lc happin ess satisfa ction with life 21.14 6 47.73 5 15 15 1.410 3.182 6.26 4 3.10 9 .00 0 .00 0 .253 .144 93.965 46.640 1.000 .998 gend er happin ess satisfa ction with life .435 2.461 1 1 .435 2.461 1.93 1 2.40 5 .16 6 .12 2 .007 .009 1.931 2.405 .283 .339 lc * gend er happin ess satisfa ction with life 4.630 12.52 2 12 12 .386 1.043 1.71 5 1.02 0 .069 .042 20.576 12.235 .862 .591 error happin ess satisfa ction with life 62.33 7 283.4 99 27 7 27 7 .22 5 1.0 23 total happin ess satisfa ction with life 3575. 162 4441. 600 30 7 30 7 corre cted total happin ess satisfa ction with life 87.22 4 341.0 01 30 6 30 6 https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 2; 2020 26 a. ―r squared‖ = .285 (―adjusted r squared‖ = .211) b. ―r squared‖ = .169 (―adjusted r squared‖ = .082) c. ―computed using alpha‖ = .05 conclusion the results of this examination confirmed past findings detailed. in spite of the above restrictions, the findings of the current investigation are profoundly significant. its essential outcome in the scale estimating and its fundamental findings concern the connotations with the self-control, happiness, satisfaction with life. study on self-control has caused it probable to well comprehend human behaviour in different parts of life. right now, have endeavoured to coordinate what is thought about self-control change, particularly continuing varieties in satisfaction with life. the model incorporates a wide assortment of findings and recommends various new bearings for research. over many years have gone since the "pursuit of happiness" was part of the number research. we trust it is finally period for the matter of manageable prosperity to be specified the scientific consideration that it merits. our investigation didn't appear, as we had anticipated, the effect of self-control on the happiness and life satisfaction and both in the gathering of individuals with and with the huge influence of locus of control. the life satisfaction was anticipated by student‘s orientation and kind of other healthy activities, gathering, and social interaction may have positively influence on happiness. which ultimately suggest that if student worker on their self-control it may have better results in different stages of life? self-control has been connected to accomplishments in various different backgrounds, and apparently with more prominent poise one could concentrate more on desires and less on warding off obstructions en route. all things considered, despite the fact that the quest for bliss may not be simple, it gives off an impression of being in any case in our control. the discoveries recommend that there was significantly relationship have among the self-control with happiness and self-control with satisfaction with life. different independent variables contribute in future research. references bernardi, r. 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(2002). moderating effects of gender and age on the relationship between self-esteem and life satisfaction in mainland chinese. international journal of psychology, 37-83-91. appnendices supplemental materials appendix a. items and response scales for study measures (a) self-control 1. i am good at resisting temptation. 2. i have a hard time breaking bad habits. 3. i am lazy. 4. i say inappropriate things. 5. i do certain things that are bad for me, if they are fun. 6. i refuse things that are bad for me. 7. i wish i had more self-discipline. 8. people would say that i have iron self-discipline. 9. pleasure and fun sometimes keep me from getting work done. 10. i have trouble concentrating. 11. i am able to work effectively towards long-term goals. 12. sometimes i can‘t stop myself doing something, even if i know it is wrong. 13. i often act without thinking through all the alternatives. (b) happiness i don‘t feel particularly pleased with the way i am. i am intensely interested in other people. i feel that life is very rewarding. i have very warm feelings towards almost everyone. i rarely wake up feeling rested. i am not particularly optimistic about the future. i find most things amusing. https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 2; 2020 29 i am always committed and involved. life is good. i do not think that the world is a good place. i laugh a lot. i am well satisfied about everything in my life. i don‘t think i look attractive. there is a gap between what i like would to do and what i have done. i am very happy. i find beauty in some things. i always have a cheerful effect on others. i can fit in (find time for) everything i want to. i feel that i am not especially in control of my life. i feel able to take anything on. i feel fully mentally alert. i often experience joy and elation. i don‘t find it easy to make decisions. i don‘t have a particular sense of meaning and purpose in my life. i feel i have a great deal of energy. i usually have a good influence on event. i don‘t have fun with other people. i don‘t feel particularly healthy. i don‘t have particularly happy memories of the past. (c) satisfaction with life in most ways my life is close to my ideal. the conditions of my life are excellent. i am satisfied with my life. so far i have gotten the important things i want in life. if i could live my life over, i would change almost nothing. (d) locus of control i usually get what i want in life. i need to be kept informed about news events. i never know where i stand with other people. i do not really believe in luck or chance. i think that i could easily win a lottery. if i do not succeed on a task, i tend to give up. i usually convince others to do things my way. people make a difference in controlling crime. the success i have is largely a matter of chance. marriage is largely a gamble for most people. people must be the master of their own fate. it is not important for me to vote. https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 2; 2020 30 . my life seems like a series of random events. i never try anything that i am not sure of. i earn the respect and honors i receive. a person can get rich by taking risks. leaders are successful when they work hard. persistence and hard work usually lead to success. it is difficult to know who my real friends are. other people usually control my life. copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. this is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) american economic & social review 9(1) (2022), 9-16 9 economic & social review aesr vol 9 no 1 (2022) p-issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 available online at https://www.cribfb.com journal homepage: https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr published by cribfb, usa efforts by women to become financially independent through e-commerce during covid-19: a study on bangladesh perspective afsana mimi (a)1 md. ali imran (b) jasia mustafa (c) tahrima haque beg (d) md. sazidur rahman (e) (a) lecturer, faculty of business & entrepreneurship, daffodil international university, dhaka, bangladesh; e-mail: afsana.ba0178.c@diu.edu.bd (b) assistant professor, department of business studies, faculty of business & entrepreneurship, daffodil international university, bangladesh; e-mail: imran@daffodil.ac (c) senior lecturer, department of business studies, faculty of business and entrepreneurship, daffodil international university, dhaka, bangladesh; email: jasia.bba@diu.edu.bd (d) assistant professor, department of management & finance, sher-e-bangla agricultural university, dhaka, bangladesh; e-mail: sau.finance1@gmail.com (e) executive officer, dutch-bangla bank limited, dhaka, bangladesh; e-mail: sazid191017@gmail.com a r t i c l e i n f o article history: received: 2nd february 2022 accepted: 15th may 2022 online publication: 20th may 2022 keywords: women e-commerce, women entrepreneurship, financially independent, covid-19 pandemic jel classification codes: l81 a b s t r a c t this research investigates the efforts taken by the women for introducing themselves as financially independent through e-commerce from the perspective of bangladesh. after the outbreak of covid-19, women of bangladesh suffered a lot in case of – loss of jobs, lower wages, lower educational support, lower access to information, and deterioration of mental health due to depression and anxiety. at this bad time, e-commerce has shown women a new way of survival and gained economic independence. this study is for evaluating how e-commerce becomes a strong tool for women's economic independence during the period of this pandemic. though there are some obstacles, e-commerce is opening the door to women’s success. bangladesh is a developing country where most people think that the only duty of women is cooking and looking after children but e-commerce is giving the opportunity to the women to work at home and become financially independent. the policy recommendations for encouraging women in e-commerce and mitigating their challenges could be helpful for the government of the people’s republic of bangladesh in making this sector more profitable. © 2022 by the authors. licensee cribfb, usa. this article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution (cc by) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). introduction in recent decades, bangladesh has achieved significant progress in the area of women empowerment by ensuring women’s education and employment (mainuddin et al., 2015). during the covid-19 pandemic, many women in bangladesh are suffering badly who have lost their job. woman has existing challenges in their workplace and restrictions in the home and for this; they are experiencing additional impacts of covid-19 (shammi et al., 2021). according to international labour organization (ilo) (2020), if the women employment drops, it will hinder the economic and social empowerment and it will create the deficit of experienced and skilled worker. female entrepreneurs get a huge number of orders during the pandemic because people are reluctant to buy from outdoor in fear of infection. leacock (2020) found that covid-19 increases the online demand of safety product, medicine, sanitizer etc. during this covid-19 situation, people have no alternative market without online and the whole world is continuously becoming dependent on this online platform. hasan (2020) found that sales through online are increased by 70% to 80% from the normal time and about 400000 women are using online platform to sell their product. so women are representing their expertise on digital platform by breaking the barriers during this pandemic situation. women entrepreneurs are finding what is suitable for them as a result the nature of women entrepreneurship is changing (begum, 2020). after losing their jobs many women has started their own business by using different social media with their small 1corresponding author: orcid id: 0000-0003-1055-9919 © 2022 by the authors. hosting by cribfb. peer review under responsibility of cribfb, usa. https://doi.org/10.46281/aesr.v9i1.1723 to cite this article: mimi, a., imran, m. a., mustafa, j., beg, t. h., & rahman, m. s. (2022). efforts by women to become financially independent through e-commerce during covid-19: a study on bangladesh perspective. american economic & social review, 9(1), 9-16. https://doi.org/10.46281/aesr.v9i1.1723 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) https://doi.org/10.46281/aesr.v9i1.1723 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1055-9919 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4732-063x https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3180-7221 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0149-5968 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4097-6337 mimi et al., american economic & social review 9(1) (2022), 9-16 10 capital. the member of women and e-commerce forum (we) has increased from 30000 to 300000 after the four month of covid-19 (bdnews24, 2021). women have come forward to take the helm of the family in times of pandemic. the woman who never thought of becoming an entrepreneur has also become an entrepreneur to meet the needs of the family. a woman starts a business by capitalizing on what she is good at. through this, a woman entrepreneur has arranged employment for herself as well as many others in the area. according to the bangladesh association of software and information services (basis), 3 lakh people in the country are currently doing business through facebook. half of them are women. they earn a minimum of tk 10,000 to a maximum of tk 1 lakh per month by selling their products. according to the research, the sale of women's products through facebook has doubled in the pandemic. a significant number of women buy products online at this time, especially because they do not leave the house on lockdown; which was a blessing for the women involved in e-commerce. according to maier (2007), e-commerce is the easiest and most popular way to overcome the obstacles in women's empowerment such as security, lack of suitable work, lack of capital, working outside the home for a long time. through ecommerce, women can run their own businesses at a convenient time with little capital from home. e-commerce is convenient for women from all sides. emphasis needs to be placed on e-commerce to empower women. the involvement of women in e-commerce will ensure their leadership and enable them to play a role in the country's economy. literature review e-commerce is nothing but electronic commerce. it can be simply defined as conducting business by using electronic media. it is also known as online trading. it is a business model that lets organizations and individuals buy and sell products and services over the internet (turban et al., 2007). e-commerce brings a revolution in business practices (ohidujjaman et al., 2013). traditional commerce can be viewed as transactions conducted among business partners. on the other hand, electronic commerce is an evolving concept that describes the process of buying and selling or exchanging products, services, and information over the internet through the medium of a computer (khan, 2016). therefore, e-commerce is all about trading or exchanging products and services through electronic media. islam and humam (2019) stated that both as shoppers and entrepreneur’s women dominate the e-commerce market. akhter (2017) identified that e-commerce provides the opportunity to avoid expenses like physical workplace, workforce, logistics etc. so the overall opportunity and convenience to start a business through online with small amount of capital contribute to encourage women empowerment. according to the wto (2020), women are suffering badly during this covid-19 situation than the (ali et al., 2020a; ali et al., 2020b; chowdhury et al., 2020; f. chowdhury et al., 2021; s. chowdhury et al., 2021; iqbal et al., 2021; kader et al., 2019; kader et al., 2021a; kader et al., 2021b; kabir et al., 2021; nayeen et al., 2020; nahar et al., 2021; rahman et al., 2021a; rahman et al., 2021b; shahriar 2021a; shahriar 2021b; zayed et al., 2021a; and zayed et al., 2021b) men in case of loss of job, lower wages, lower educational support and lower access to information etc. the financial impact of covid-19 is still going on but this situation is also opening the door to change the wheel of luck of those women who lost their job. in bangladesh, women’s involvement in economic activity is common since ancient times. the role of women has gone through several transitions and consumed huge time to take shape of the present situation (nandy & biswas, 2022). women entrepreneurship in bangladesh has become an income source for women to get rid of economic dependency (tabassum, 2018). there are different sectors where women entrepreneurship has started its journey and also achieved success. among them, women are more empowered by heading toward e-commerce. among the twenty thousand pages on facebook, more than twelve thousand are owned by women, and the numbers are increasing day by day (haque, 2013). according to the women entrepreneurs association, an organization of women entrepreneurs, about 60 percent of women in corona have come to sell products online to sustain their business. many women entrepreneurs have become interested in selling products online to keep their businesses afloat during the pandemic crisis. specially educated women have come this way more. women entrepreneurs promote products on facebook, whatsapp, messenger, viver. many have opened personal websites to run businesses. concerned people say that it is possible to promote and spread the product easily online. being able to trade products online reduces the cost of running a business. increasing the participation of women entrepreneurs in selling products online will have a positive impact on the economy (dw, 2020). using facebook as a medium, women are becoming entrepreneurs with minimum capital. some of the women entrepreneurs are selling various products including clothes, jewelry, handicrafts, and ready-made food. many are working to highlight the indigenous culture. someone has gone into business with fancy products (fariha, 2021). these women are educated. many could not get a job due to various problems including family pressure. many are determined to do something on their own. as a result, besides managing the family, women's interest in independent business is increasing. for this reason, they can now enhance their living standard and also motivate other women to become financially dependent. compared to non-enterprise women (housewives), women in e-commerce have more control over resources, asset ownership, social and economic mobility, political participation, and involvement in household and family health decision-making. this is the perfect platform for fighting against the current discriminations between men and women in entrepreneurship (khanum et al., 2020). objectives the major objective of this paper is to discover how women became financially independent during covid-19 pandemic in the context of bangladesh. the specific objective is to discover the financial impact of e-commerce on women based on their average order from different online platform which are the main platform to communicate with consumers in the online world. the consequences will impact on the economy of bangladesh by empowering women through e-commerce. the paper identifies the challenges and recommendations for the women empowerment in bangladesh through e-commerce. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/businessmodel.asp mimi et al., american economic & social review 9(1) (2022), 9-16 11 methodology qualitative approaches have been applied to this paper. as the population for the study is comprised of women e-commerce entrepreneurs who operate their businesses through various online platforms. sample size has been determined from this population using the non-probabilistic sampling method, which is set at 100 users. instead of randomly selecting respondents who are not the target respondents, this non-probabilistic sampling method allows for the selection of actual female ecommerce entrepreneurs. according to hox and boejje (2005), there are two sources of data collectionprimary and secondary. primary and secondary data are used to accomplish this paper. as the paper is a mix of qualitative and quantitative information, a questionnaire is designed to collect primary data from the sample population. the secondary sources of data have been collected from various websites, books, organizations, articles, and experts on women's ecommerce. result and discussion during covid-19, successful women e-commerce entrepreneur list through the innovative moves, women are proposing new dimensions of improving their socio-economic status. undoubtedly, e-commerce has emerged as a great platform for women empowerment in modern days. despite having many constraints, it is continuously bringing new information resources and opening communication channels for women entrepreneurs of the marginalized communities. undeniably, the revolution in e-commerce has brought a powerful sense of financial freedom along with imaginative fulfillment for women. now they are actively participating in decision making and becoming successful leaders. women are no longer dependent on their families for financial backup. many of women lost income to the coronavirus pandemic, and then they took to facebook, not to protest, but to sell products of their own or as businesses – this is how tens of thousands of women helped bangladesh’s e-commerce sector thrive during the crisis. table 1. successful women e-commerce entrepreneur list during covid-19 name location duration website/page name selling amount rownok jahan mirpur 10 months shokher rannaghor 500000 masuma islam dhaka 7 months personal profile 193000 sadia emamon borni dhaka 4 months bornil closet 110000 bonny magura 10 months moukhi 400000 kaniz mimi savar 9 months kaniz shamogri 160000 sabikunnaher maria brahmanbaria 1 year rakamari hijab collection 548000 tamanna erin chottogram 1 year erin’s cooking house 116000 meherun meher cumilla 10 months shokher khabar ghor 128000 source: we facebook group reasons for started e-commerce during covid-19 figure 1. reasons for started e-commerce during covid-19 source: author's compilation lots of suffering is caused for large number of people due to covid-19. many people have lost their jobs during lockdown and many people become idle for staying inside home. during this pandemic period people have lots of free time which encourage them to engage with something like e-commerce which not only benefit them but also give the opportunity to contribute the national economy. according to the figure 1, it has been found that 60% of the respondents have entered in this e-commerce sector to lead their life independently where 51% respondents also engaged with e-commerce for spending their free time during the period of lockdown. the figure revealed 44% of the respondents wanted to contribute their family. but this figure also revealed many miserable incidents because it shows that 16% of respondents lost their jobs for covid-19 pandemic and 15% respondent’s family members lost jobs during this period that’s why it was their necessity to start e-commerce to survive. mimi et al., american economic & social review 9(1) (2022), 9-16 12 product type figure 2. product type source: author's compilation the figure 2 represents that 38% of the respondents are involved in food and confectioneries like candy, packaged snacks, canned and pickled product, dried herb, baked items, raw ingredients (flours etc.), coffee and tea etc. the figure also represents that 35% respondents are engaged in jewelry and fashion accessories which includes clothes, ring, bag, shoe, bracelets, necklaces etc. 10% respondents in the figure are engaged with beauty and health related products like soap, skincare, shampoo, hair coloring, cosmetic (eye, facial etc.) fragrance etc. 8% respondents operate homeware product. 6% provide baby and child care products and rest 3% provides electronic accessories. many women run two or more business at a time but for 2 different businesses (clothes or jewelry or food) 2 different trade licenses are required. the tin certificate will be possible for one product and the bank account will be possible for one product. but they must have a bank account in the name of business. personal account or savings account will not be accepted. average order per week figure 3. average order per week source: author's compilation most of the women e-commerce entrepreneur observed an increasing rate of 70 to 80 percent compared to the previous time in their online order during pandemic. figure 3 shows that most of the entrepreneur (67%) got averagely 11100 orders per week during pandemic. 21% said that they got below 10 orders per week. besides, only 12% said that they got more than 100 orders per week. sometimes women receive many orders from their customers beyond their production capability. on the other hand, they confirm too many orders without taking advance. so they face funding problems to deliver the product. there are many customers who have the intension to cancel their order after confirmation. these situations create an uncomfortable situation for women. total sale figure 4. total sale source: author's compilation in the figure total selling amount of each respondent are collected. from the figure 4 it is found that during the covid-19 period, 40% of the respondent’s total selling amount was between 50000-100000. but the most important thing that 34% of the respondent’s total selling amount range is 100000-500000. these 34% respondents are contributing greatly mimi et al., american economic & social review 9(1) (2022), 9-16 13 in the economy of bangladesh during the pandemic. 17% respondents have the total selling amount more than 500000 where less than 50000 have only 9% respondents. monthly income figure 5. monthly income source: author's compilation covid-19 and lockdown come as a blessing for e-commerce entrepreneurs. in that time people stayed at home and prefer to online shopping. that’s why they saw an increasing rate in their sales and monthly income. figure 5 reveals that 45% earn monthly the range of 15000-25000 taka. 32% said that they earn 26000-50000 taka monthly. 13% reported that they earn more than 50000 taka monthly. only 10% said that t heir monthly income is less than 15000 taka. in many ways online means a selling less expensive things at a higher price. the people who operate business physically do not incur packaging charges and delivery charge is not charged. but the women who run online business have to cut their income for packaging and delivering charge, this reduces their monthly income also. social media platforms to run business figure 6. social media platforms to run business source: author's compilation figure 6 shows that 100% women e-commerce entrepreneur are running their business through facebook. women learned facebook entrepreneurship from a popular support group based on facebook called women and e commerce forum (we). this platform inspired many women to become e-commerce entrepreneur and also helped them to learn customer relationship skills required to run their business on facebook and earn money. everyone chooses facebook for too many reasons such as, facebook is low-cost marketing strategy, helps to hare basic information about the business and pictures and videos from the business, helps to talk to existing and potential customers and provide customer support, helps to raise brand awareness and promote positive word-of-mouth and so on. this study also reveals that among 100%, 72% women are running their e-commerce through personal facebook page. on the other side 14% uses women & ecommerce forum (we) facebook group to sell their products. only 4% respondents uses their personal facebook profile to sell products. to draw customer attention, most of the entrepreneur named a unique and creative name for their page. on the other hand, the figure also shows that, 18% uses what’s app to run the business and 14% uses instagram to operate their business. besides, only 12% uses own website to run the business. nowadays it has become very important to run personal branding or self-promotion on social media. in order to build business, it must first build a person as a brand. many women run their business in online but they are not aware or they don’t have appropriate knowledge about personal branding in social media. conclusion and policy recommendation e-commerce allows women for getting economic independence by running their own businesses by balancing their personal and professional life. they can now contribute to their families as well as the national economy through income generation activities. but they suffer several hurdles when they effort to become self -reliant or financially stable. the truth is that women in bangladesh are lagging in socioeconomic growth which placed them in a disadvantageous position because they have less access to money, productive capital, services, and opportunities than men. the responsible authority should carefully handle these aspects to provide a better e-commerce platform for them. but still, the growth of women's involvement in e-commerce is increasing day by day because e-commerce helps them to overcome poverty, reduce inequalities, produce innovative ideas and work from home. mimi et al., american economic & social review 9(1) (2022), 9-16 14 because of encouraging women’s effort for empowering them through e-commerce, the following policies are advocated to help them to grow  bangladesh is a developing country where most of the women are living in rural areas and they need to be inspired. they require latest internet facility all over the country, appropriate understanding about e-commerce website development, advertising, online transaction, flexible payment methods and other facilities.  we need more women who are willing to take the lead, men who are willing to take on more responsibilities in household chores and employers who are interested in creating more flexible workplaces for women in online.  many women don’t take advance for their online order but in this case their protection is required from fraud.  appropriate packaging and delivery channel should be introduced because it cuts their most of the monthly income.  it is required to provide training on personal branding in social media.  many people in bangladesh do not like the word women entrepreneur when they hear it. because in our society, many people still do not like to work outside for women. later, only housework appears to be his responsibility. but overcoming these social barriers, many women entrepreneurs have reached the pinnacle of success through their work. women as entrepreneurs have now taken place in the minds of the people. nowadays, many women are moving forward with their work and intelligence. author contributions: conceptualization, a.m., m.a.i., j.m., t.h.b. and m.s.r.; data curation, , a.m., m.a.i., j.m., t.h.b., and m.s.r.; methodology, a.m. and m.a.i.; validation, a.m. and m.a.i.; visualization, a.m. and m.a.i.; formal analysis, a.m. and m.a.i.; investigation, a.m. and m.a.i.; resources, a.m. and m.a.i.; writing – original draft, a.m. and m.a.i.; writing – review & editing, a.m. and m.a.i.; supervision, a.m. and m.a.i.; software, a.m. and m.a.i.; project administration, a.m. and m.a.i.; funding acquisition, a.m., m.a.i., j.m., t.h.b. and m.s.r. authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript. institutional review board statement: ethical review and approval were waived for this study, due to that the research does not deal with vulnerable groups or sensitive issues. funding: the authors received no direct funding for this research. informed consent statement: informed consent was obtained from all subjects involved in the study. data availability statement: the data presented in this study are available on request 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(2021b). an analysis on the effects of coronavirus (covid-19) on the financial management of multinational corporations. australian finance & banking review, 5(1), 43-53. https://doi.org/10.46281/afbr.v5i1.1015 publisher’s note: cribfb stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. © 2022 by the authors. licensee cribfb, usa. this article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution (cc by) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). american economic & social review (p-issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277) by cribfb is licensed under a creative commons attribution 4.0 international license. https://doi.org/10.35741/issn.0258-2724.56.3.47 https://doi.org/10.35741/issn.0258-2724.56.3.47 https://doi.org/10.46281/afbr.v5i1.1015 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ american economic & social review vol. 8, no. 1; 2021 issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 published by cribfb, usa 11 impact of official development assistance on sustainable development of pakistan fouzia perveen department of economics faculty of business administration mohammad ali jinnah university, karachi, pakistan e-mail: p.fouzi@yahoo.com afaq ali khan department of economics faculty of business administration mohammad ali jinnah university, karachi, pakistan abstract this research paper aims to find out the relationship between official development assistance and sustainable development in pakistan. time series data was taken for the period of 42 years (1976 2017). sustainable development is a dependent variable for which proxy variable of adjusted net savings has been deployed. oda (% of gni), inflation, per capita gdp and trade (gdp %) have been used as explanatory variables. augmented dickey-fuller test has been applied to examine the nature of the data as time series data may contain unit root problems. adf test confirms mixed order of integration for the selected variables, hence autoregressive distributed lag (ardl) approach was applied to find out the long-run relationship among the considered variables. estimation of error correction regression resulted in a significant long-run relationship between oda and sustainable development. ecm regression also signifies the negative and significant value of the speed of adjustment term confirming that the model is stable and convergent towards the equilibrium. overall results of this study confirm a positive and highly significant relationship between oda and the measure of sustainable development in pakistan. therefore it is recommended that attention should be given to drawing on foreign assistance and it should be subject to the transparent and efficient practices applied in the aid allocation. it significantly improves the overall welfare of pakistan. keywords: official development assistance, sustainable development, adjusted net savings. introduction development assistance committee of the organization for economic cooperation and development (oecd) introduced the terminology of official development assistance (oda) for the foreign funding transferred to developing countries. (radelet, 2006) foreign inflows normally include non-repayable grants, soft loans with tight conditions, project and non-project assistance, technical backing and relief aid packages (natural disaster relief packages) foreign direct investment, credit for bop imbalance etc. foreign aid may be granted by multilateral institutions, like imf, world bank, agriculture organization and oecd etc. and the resources are transferred from institutions to the government of developing countries. in addition to that, some regional mailto:p.fouzi@yahoo.com https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 8, no. 1; 2021 12 institutions such as; the asian development bank, the inter-american development bank, saarc, the european union, common wealth etc. also support their regional countries. (husain, 2005). development studies have identified, the low level of domestic savings serves as a bigger challenge for the pace of the economic growth of developing countries. it is taken to be a big barrier in the growth rate of capital accumulation to meet the underlying investment opportunities and accelerate the pace of economic development. hence, it becomes challenging for the developing countries to put the economy on the path of sustainable growth rates. external resources transferred to the poor countries can fill twin gaps; foreign exchange gap and also saving gap (papanek, 1973). this study investigates the impact of foreign aid and sustainable development of pakistan across the period of 1976-2017. the motivation behind this verification lies in two grounds:  the obvious research gap in the previous literature published on the effectiveness of aid in the scenario of pakistan. the traditional studies while investigating the “effectiveness” of the foreign aid inflows deploy the indicator of gdp growth rate which is not the real representative of the sustainable development and does not present the holistic impact of the foreign aid impact on the economic, social and environmental indicators.  the post-2015 paradigm shift of the development efforts focusing on sustainable development serves a policy relevance. world leaders are agreed to follow the new agenda of international development, “transforming our world: the 2030 agenda for sustainable development” organized in the general assembly of the us on september 25, 2015. under this agenda, 17 goals of sustainable development known as sdgs are embraced by all the member countries of uno, as an agenda of 2030. while discussing the role of foreign inflows in pakistan husain (2005) highlighted the role of three leading multilateral institutions i-e. imf, world bank and the adb provide a credit on soft and hard conditions, depending upon the nature of the financing. he mentioned in his lecture, the core function of imf is to provide support to countries that face the problem of balance of payment deficits. but, the world bank and adb are development banks dedicatedly established to reduce poverty and uplift the living standards of the people of developing countries having the low pace of economic growth. nonetheless, these aid agencies share a common goal of boosting economic growth and cut down the unemployment rate in the aidrecipient country. during the era of the 1960s, under the idea of growth manship growth target was set to be at 6% double of the population rate of that time, to keep the country on stability path. (mohey-ud-din, 2005) the financing of physical infrastructure projects like power and irrigation projects which laid down the foundation of the economic growth in the country could be a dream without external funding. [see: malik et al. 1994; salman & hui, 2009] the below figure shows the savings-investment gap in pakistan from 1976 to 2017. this gap was quite wide in 1976 which slightly squeezed in the following years. after 1985, gross domestic savings of pakistan rose upward just above 15% of gdp to maintain the investment requirement of the country as aid inflows declined in those years. this trend continued till 2002 following the foreign assistance transfers from the usa but it led to a decrease in the level of domestic savings again below 7% (gdp ratio) in the following years. https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 8, no. 1; 2021 13 figure 1. investment-saving gap in pakistan from1976-2017 (data source is wdi) literature review many economists believe that foreign aid inflows fill out the investment-savings gap in the economic growth of developing countries. according to papanek (1973), chenery & strout (1966), thirlwall (1999), gulati (1975), mosley (1980), karras (2006), hatemi & irandoust (2005), there is a positive relationship between foreign inflows and economic growth rate since foreign inflows supplements the domestic savings of the developing countries which are insufficient in most cases. moreover, foreign aid facilitates the role of a bridge to lessen the gap of foreign exchange (trade gap) and it provides access to the latest technology (via imports) and technical skills, allowing easier entry to the markets of other countries. the other strand of the literature on the aidgrowth nexus, asserts that foreign aid does not contribute to the economic growth and other major macroeconomic parameters of the country rather it drains the domestic resources sometimes. according to this group, foreign aid does not complement the domestic resources rather it is consumed in the non-development expenditures by the inefficient and corrupt governments of the country. bauer (1972), friedman (1958), boone (1996), easterly (2000), easterly (2003), moyo (2009), sethi et al (2019), farah et al. (2017) proved the negative influence of foreign aid on the economic indicators. according to moyo (2009, p. 28). foreign assistance prolongs the vicious circle of poverty hence drags the economy into unsustainable growth. the first-ever study on pakistan’s aid and growth patterns was carried out by chenery and macewan (1966) which was organized in the scenario of pakistan’s 20 years’ growth projections for the period of 1965-1985. according to his predictions, pakistan would require foreign assistance beyond 1985 to fill up its two gaps; savings-investment gap and export-import gap. younis et al. (2015) attempted to examine the pattern of sustainable development in pakistan by using the data for 1950-2013. they applied the hicks-page-hartwick-solow rule to measure sustainable development. their study revealed that pakistan has been on the path of unsustainable development since the 1950s. the country has faced low saving and investments that persisted the “saving-investment gap” and the country remained stuck in a fiscal deficit. investment in the physical and social infrastructure is inadequate which caused neglect of human development. no solid policies were in place to stop environmental degradation. the way forward that they suggested 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 1 9 7 6 1 9 7 9 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 5 1 9 8 8 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 7 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 5 % o f g d p investment-saving gap in pakistan gross capital formation (% of gdp) gross domestic savings (% of gdp) https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 8, no. 1; 2021 14 to put the country on the sustainable path, advocates the improved level of domestic savings and policy formation for the economic, social and environmental sectors. anwar (2014) had a critical evaluation of previous literature on foreign aid regarding pakistan. according to his in-depth review, foreign aid does not affect the economic growth of pakistan positively, with a significant result. in certain cases, it plays the opposite role for the economy, and evidently, it had the worst effect on the economy by hampering the growth of the social sector. it has also impacted the process of economic development as a whole, negatively. he asserted that the domestic politics of donors must be studied sufficiently. ali and ahmed, (2013) based on their empirical analysis suggest a dire need to decrease the dependence of the economy on foreign aid and external debt. malik et al. (2010) explored the case of cointegration between economic growth and external debt in the case of pakistan. according to their findings, with the increasing external debt, the country will have lesser opportunities for economic growth. shirazi et al. (2009) studied the impact of oda on social development indicators of pakistan. they used oda for the foreign aid while the explanatory variables include indexes for economic growth, education, human development, health and life expectancy. a bidirectional causality was reported between oda and economic growth. similarly, causality runs from foreign aid to human development (hdi), life expectancy index, and education index. foreign aid study conducted by salman and hui (2009) attempts to review the usefulness of foreign aid on the economic development of pakistan. the period of the study was 30 years (19782007). the authors used gdp as a proxy variable for economic development and oda and foreign debt as independent variables narrowing down to the impact of oda and debt on gdp growth of pakistan for the target period. their study findings of aid effectiveness for pakistan is significantly promising and positive. khan and ahmed (2007) examined the relationship of aid and growth on annual data for the period of 1972 to 2006 and applied the ardl approach. variables of domestic investment and foreign direct investment and foreign assistance were taken as explanatory variables with real gdp (y) as a dependent variable. they extended the production function called adding factors of aid and exports along with capital and labour. f bound test was significant for all types of aid, claiming a co-integration between aid and gdp but their conclusion suggest that aid flows do not influence growth, neither at aggregate level nor disaggregate level. muhey-u-din (2005) advocates the dual gap model of chenery through his study and justifies the need for foreign inflows in the case of pakistan. according to him, pakistan has to rely on foreign aid and foreign debt since it does not have physical, financial & human capital.khan (1997) finds out that the terms and conditions of foreign aid and loans used to be harsher when a country becomes dependent on foreign aid to finance domestic investment and fill out bop deficits. their study results find that foreign aid/flows have a negative and significant coefficient, irrespective of the use of conditioning variables. methodology the most credible source of a theoretical base for the research subject is provided by the all-time renowned model of economic growth. according to harrod-domar theory; g= s/k where g is the growth rate of gdp, s represents savings and k is capital output ratio. and to increase the rate of investment requires a higher rate of capital accumulation and an enhanced level of capital formulation demands a relative increase in the domestic savings. the https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 8, no. 1; 2021 15 harrod domar model is a keynesian model of economic growth which explains what rate of investment growth is required to keep the economy on a steady path of development. chenery and strout (1966), extending the harrod domar growth model for a two-sector economy, developed the tow gap model i-e ‘investment-saving gap’ and ‘import-export gap’ to achieve the optimal patterns of economic growth. the excess of the traditional import over the traditional exports less the production for the trade sector leads to trade gap and developing countries have to rely on foreign resources if they don’t have enough domestic savings. (chenery & macewan, 1966) this study will focus to answer the below questions primarily:  is there any relationship between official development assistance and sustainable development of pakistan?  what is the nature of the relationship between oda and sustainable development? is there any long-run co-integration between both variables?  what is the impact magnitude of oda on sustainable development in pakistan? the below equation has been developed to conduct the empirical examination of our research hypothesis. 𝑺𝑫 = 𝒇 (𝑶𝑫𝑨 + 𝑮𝑫𝑷𝑷𝑪 + 𝑰𝑵𝑭 + 𝑻𝑹𝑫𝑶) (a) sd stands for sustainable development being a dependent variable in the study. variable of adjusted net savings (% of gni) formerly called genuine savings has been deployed as a measure the sustainable development. oda represents official development assistant (% of gni). gdppc represents gdp per capita for pakistan (current us $). inf is the inflation (consumer prices, annual %) variable which is taken as a monetary policy measure on the pattern of rana and koch (2020), fischer (1993) and burnside & dollar (2000). trdo measures trade openness rana and koch (2020) for which we have taken annual data of trade (% of gdp) following sachs and warner (1995) and burnside and dollar (2000). the econometric form of the equation will be: 𝑺𝑫 = 𝜷𝟎 + 𝜷𝟏 𝑶𝑫𝑨 + 𝜷𝟐 𝑮𝑫𝑷𝑷𝑪 + 𝜷𝟑 𝑰𝑵𝑭 + 𝜷𝟒 𝑻𝑹𝑫𝑶 + 𝝁 (b) the below hypothesis has been built to investigate through this study. here, h0 represents null hypothesis while ha shows the alternative hypothesis. b1 is the slope coefficient of oda. h0 ∶ 𝛽1 = 0 h𝐴 ∶ 𝛽1 ≠ 0 for this study, the time-series data of 42 years (1976-2017) has been obtained by using different relevant and authentic sources including world development reports, world development indicators, oecd reports and pakistan economic surveys. discussion since arma models for the non-stationary data, all data series needs to be tested for stationarity. the augmented dickey-fuller test is considered the most authentic test to check the stationarity (dickey & fuller 1979, brooks 2014) in table 01, the variables have mix order of integration which means that some variables are of i(0) and some of them are i(1), which makes the autoregressive distributed lag approach the most feasible for the empirical analysis. https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 8, no. 1; 2021 16 ardl method is ols based which consists of lags of both, dependent and independent variables. the main usage of this method is that it permits the testing of the cointegration irrespective of the degree of variables. this approach is more valid than the johansen-juselius approach when the sample size is small. hence, adding the component of time (t) and lags of dependent and explanatory variables we will convert the equation (b) into autoregressive lagged distributed model; 𝑺𝑫𝒕 = 𝜷𝟎 + 𝜷𝟏𝑺𝑫𝒕−𝒊 + 𝜷𝟐 𝑶𝑫𝑨𝒕−𝒊 + 𝜷𝟑𝑮𝑫𝑷𝑷𝑪𝒕−𝒊 + 𝜷𝟒 𝑰𝑵𝑭𝒕−𝒊 + 𝜷𝟓 𝑻𝑹𝑫𝑶𝒕−𝒊 + 𝜺𝒕𝒊 model of (2,3,4,0,0) was selected as optimal model along with adjusted r square of 0.67 and value of f.stat at 6.8. akaike info criterion (aic) was used for the lag selection method. lag of 4 was used which is considered the optimal lag period for the annual data series. ardl bound test is applied to find out long run cointegration among variables which converts the above equation into the below form: ∆𝑺𝑫 = 𝜷𝟎 + 𝑪𝟎𝒕 ∑ 𝜶 𝚫 𝒒 𝒋=𝟏 𝑺𝑫𝒕−𝒋 + ∑ 𝛄 𝚫 𝑶𝑫𝑨𝒕−𝒊 + ∑ 𝛑 𝚫 𝑮𝑫𝑷𝑷𝑪𝒕−𝒊 + 𝒏 𝒊=𝟎 ∑ 𝛅 𝚫 𝑰𝑵𝑭𝒕−𝒊 +𝒎 𝒊=𝟎 𝒑 𝒊=𝟎 ∑ 𝛌 𝚫 𝑻𝑹𝑫𝑶𝒕−𝒊 + 𝚽𝟏 𝒌 𝒊−= 𝑺𝑫𝒕−𝟏 + 𝚽𝟐 𝑶𝑫𝑨𝒕−𝟏 + 𝚽𝟑 𝑮𝑫𝑷𝑷𝑪𝒕−𝟏 + 𝚽𝟒 𝑰𝑵𝑭𝒕−𝟏 + 𝚽𝟓 𝑻𝑹𝑫𝑶𝒕−𝟏 + 𝝐𝒕 here, b0 is the drift component while c0t is the trend component. parameters like 𝛼, γ, π, δ, λ are short term coefficients hence will represent short-run relationships while φ1 , φ2, φ3, φ4, φ5 are long term coefficients telling long-run relationships among variables f-bounds test null hypothesis: no levels relationship test statistic value signif. i(0) i(1) f-statistic 6.539848 10% 2.427 3.395 k 4 5% 2.893 4 n=40 1% 3.967 5.455 f-bound test is quite significant as the calculated value of f-statistics is 6.539 and this value is larger than upper boundary values. the null hypothesis of “no cointegration” may be rejected and the alternative hypothesis can be accepted easily. this rejection of the null hypothesis confirms the long-run cointegration between dependent and independent variables. therefore, further exploration of the relationship dynamics can be justified for which error correction regression was run to check the significance and magnitude level of this long-run relationship. variable description model level 1st variable ans adjusted net savings intercept -3.631 i(0) oda official development assistance intercept -5.41 i(0) gdppc per capita gdp intercept 2.46 -4.977 i(1) inf inflation, cpi intercept -4.51 i(0) trdo trade intercept -2.051 -7.278 i(1) table 2. result of f-bound test table 1. result of augmented dickey fuller test https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 8, no. 1; 2021 17 variable coefficient std. error t-statistic prob. oda 4.422286 0.721114 6.132577 0.0000* gdppc 0.003943 0.002207 1.786338 0.0867*** inf -0.329015 0.119315 -2.757527 0.0110** trdo -0.244595 0.181319 -1.348980 0.1899 c 12.46772 6.219343 2.004669 0.0564 table 04 shows that the long-run coefficient of oda becomes positive and double in magnitude in the long run period, from -2.09 to 4.422 which is positive and significant with t-stats of 6.13 and a p-value of 0.000. it can be concluded that if 1-point increases in oda it will lead to an increase in the adjusted net savings by 4 points. on the other hand, the variable of inflation (inf) puts a negative impact on adjusted net savings in the long run. one point increase in inflation will cause the reduction in the adjusted net savings by 0.32 points. it can be noticed that variables of gdp per capita (gdppc) and trade openness (trdo) becomes insignificant on their impact on the adjusted net savings. however, although both variables are insignificant, growth in gdp per capita has a positive coefficient while trdo shows a negative relationship with the dependent variable. the dynamics error correction model estimated through error correction regression provides the cointegrating equation (ect-1) which integrates the short-run dynamics with long-run equilibrium. ∆𝑺𝑫𝒕 = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟏 ∆ 𝑺𝑫𝒕−𝟏 + 𝟎. 𝟒𝟗 ∆ 𝑶𝑫𝑨 − 𝟐. 𝟑𝟓 ∆ 𝑶𝑫𝑨𝒕−𝟏 − 𝟐. 𝟎𝟗 ∆ 𝑶𝑫𝑨𝒕−𝟐 + 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟏 ∆ 𝑮𝑫𝑷𝑷𝑪 (1.72) (1.25) (-3.87)* (-4.18)* (0.47) −𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟏∆ 𝐆𝐃𝐏𝐏𝐂𝐭−𝟏 − 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟒 ∆ 𝐆𝐃𝐏𝐏𝐂𝐭−𝟐 + 𝟎. 𝟎𝟏𝟔 ∆ 𝐆𝐃𝐏𝐏𝐂𝐭−𝟑 − 𝟎. 𝟐𝟗𝟓𝟐𝟐𝟎 ∆𝐈𝐍𝐅 (-0.35) (-0.81) (2.96)* (0.0298) −𝟎. 𝟐𝟏𝟗 ∆ 𝐓𝐑𝐃𝐎 − 𝟎. 𝟖𝟗 𝐄𝐂𝐭−𝟏 (0.1539) (-6.88)* r2 = 0.72 adj. r2 =0.65 f-stats. 6.54 ssr= 64.69 the above equation confirms the short-run causality of oda with sd in the first lag and second lag period as significant t values are tagged with steric (*) sign. the speed of adjustment measures the time required to bring the model in equilibrium while it falls in the state of disequilibrium. in other words, it confirms the convergence of the model towards equilibrium. the below equation is called the cointegration equation. ∆ 𝑺𝑫𝒕 = −𝟎. 𝟖𝟗 𝑺𝑫𝒕−𝟏 − {( 𝟒. 𝟒𝟐 𝑶𝑫𝑨𝒕−𝟏 + 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟑 𝑮𝑫𝑷𝑷𝑪𝒕−𝟏 − 𝟎. 𝟑𝟐𝟗 𝑰𝑵𝑭𝒕 − 𝟎. 𝟐𝟒 𝑻𝑹𝑫𝑶𝒕 + 𝟏𝟐. 𝟒𝟔)} term of co-integrating equation (ect-1) indicates the speed of adjustment. its value falls between 0 and 1. the negative sign with the value suggests that the model is convergent or getting stable. on the other hand, a positive sign with the value of this term indicates that the model is divergent or explosive and it moves towards disequilibrium in the long run. here, as we can see, the value of the co-integration equation is -0.89 being significant with a t-value of -6.88 and p value less than0.05 providing a base to conclude that model is stable and convergent towards equilibrium. residual normality: jarque bera value = 0.367 p value= 0.832 table 3. long run coefficients https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 8, no. 1; 2021 18 lm serial correlation: f-statistic = 0.259224 prob.f(4,20) = 0.9006 model stability test: ramsey reset is a general misspecification error test. it verifies if there is any specification error in the fitted model. the below graphs of cusum and cusum square tests also confirm the model stability. value probability t-statistic 0.946134 0.3539 f-statistic 0.895170 0.3539 likelihood ratio 1.450921 0.2284 conclusion and recommendations this study explores the impact of official development assistance on the sustainable development of pakistan for the period of 1976-2017. the result of this study reveals that oda has a positive and significant impact on the sustainable development of pakistan, in the long run. the results of the augmented dickey-fuller showed that some variables are stationary at a level while others were stationary at first difference. that suggested application of the ardl and vec model to conduct the empirical analysis of the data through econometric models. the significance of the bounds test and slope coefficient (4.422) of oda in the long run with the significant t stats (6.13) and p values (<0.05) provides enough evidence of the robust positive relationship between oda and the measure of sustainable development of pakistan. empirical evidence shows that 1 point increase in oda, in the long run, leads to bringing increment of 4.42 points in the sustainable development of pakistan for which the variable of adjusted net savings was taken. additionally, we found that 1 point increase in the level of inflation will decline the level of sustainable development by 0.32 point. the variable of gdp per capita has positive and significant causality with sustainable development in its 4th lag year in low magnitude. the variable of trade openness turns out to be negative but insignificant, in short as well as long-run periods. based on the above results, a few recommendations have been put forward for all of the aid-concerned government authorities and development professionals (ngos, ingos etc.) in pakistan.  as pakistan does not have enough internal sources to finance the large investment projects, government spending on human welfare programs and the conservation of natural resources pakistan would have to rely on foreign assistance subject to the transparent and efficient -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 cusum 5% significance -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 cusum of squares 5% significance table 4. result of ramsey reset test https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 8, no. 1; 2021 19 practices applied in the aid allocation. although aid funds are prone to fungibility their flows are healthy for sustainable development in pakistan (rana & koch, 2020). aid will help increase the level of sustainable development by supplementing the domestic savings in the country. proper allocation of aid funds in mega development projects for education, health and environment conservation will significantly improve the level of overall social welfare in pakistan.  a higher level of inflation needs to be controlled immediately because it cannot only hit the country on economic grounds but also humanitarian spheres. a high level of inflation may worsen the living standard of people.  following younis, chaudhary, & akbar (2015) who suggested that low index of sustainable development in pakistan can be increased by increasing the level of domestic savings in the country, this study also recommends that government, as well as people of the country, must decline their consumption on unsustainable and unproductive plans. references ali, s., & ahmed, n. 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(2015). pattern of development and sustainable economic growth in pakistan; a descriptive analysis. munich personal repec archivempra. copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. this is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0) american economic & social review 12(1) (2023), 1-9 1 economic & social review aesr vol 12 no 1 (2023) p-issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 available online at https://www.cribfb.com journal homepage: https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr published by cribfb, usa social capital, education and choice job search methods in senegal mame sangone diop (a) latif dramani (b)1 (a) economist & researcher, university iba der thiam of thies, senegal; e-mail: sangonebby@gmail.com (b) professor, university iba der thiam of thies, senegal; e-mail: latif.dramani@gmail.com a r t i c l e i n f o article history: received: 9th august 2023 revised: 20th october 2023 accepted: 28th october 2023 published: 7th november 2023 keywords: social capital, well-being, education, job search, mlm jel classification codes: a13, i31, i21, d90, c51 a b s t r a c t the objective of this paper is to analyze the microeconomic impact of education on well-being, as measured by social capital in terms of the different means used to search for a job in senegal. the endogenous variable (social capital) is categorized into four sub-modalities represented as follows: « personal relations », « advertisements-firms » composed of advertisements/media/internet and applications to firms; « agencies-state » composed of the civil service, the employment office, private placement agencies and competitions/tests; and « other » composed of the search for partners, the search for financing or any other means. the exogenous characteristic variables are: the different levels of education (primary, middle, secondary and higher), the gender, the age and the marital status of the individuals aged at least 15 years. the data come from the ansd's (2020) senegal poverty monitoring survey database on a sample of 168,203 individuals. using stata, the results obtained through estimation by the multinomial logistic method (mlm) show that only higher education has a positive and significant impact on all the means used to look for a job in senegal, but at different levels and probabilities. this article suggests a strong expansion of networks of acquaintances and mutual aid, because the higher the individual's social capital, the more chance he has of interacting with others, broadening his contacts and improving his well-being. combined with a higher level of education, it offers job-seekers more opportunities to succeed in their search. © 2023 by the authors. licensee cribfb, usa. this article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution (cc by) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). introduction social capital is developed wherever it is possible to establish social ties, in other words in social spaces such as the family, the community and civil society as a whole. it contributes to crime reduction, better health, the achievement of educational goals, government effectiveness, economic performance, etc. in this article, social capital is used to describe well-being as the characteristics of social organization, such as trust, norms and networks, which can improve the efficiency of society by facilitating coordinated action. as for education, it is seen as a factor in social fulfilment for individuals, and in promoting competitiveness and innovation for a country's economic development. logically, it can promote the dynamics of human capital accumulation, since a high stock of knowledge resulting from education remains a source of innovation and a prerequisite for economic growth and well-being, hence the interest of our subject. however, this link between education and well-being in senegal has shown a low level of development in terms of the quality and quantity of its human capital, as well as a training system that offers minimal opportunities in terms of making it easier to find a job. it is now accepted that in senegal, in addition to obtaining a degree, you need to join networks or be in contact with one of the members of a network to be able to broaden your field and your job search opportunities. yet one of the major functions of welfare is to satisfy the needs of the population, which is not the case at present because of poor access to higher education and poorly structured social networks. these difficulties mean that the region needs to equip itself with sufficient quality human resources at a higher level, as well as fostering social links. to achieve this, it is important to answer the following question: what is the impact of each level of education on the different means used to look for a job in senegal? on the basis of the answers, different contributions can be made, which will improve the level and quality of education in senegal and therefore well-being. in addition, knowing the relationship between education and 1corresponding author: orcid id:0000-0002-6336-6179 © 2023 by the authors. hosting by cribfb. peer review under responsibility of cribfb, usa. https://doi.org/10.46281/aesr.v12i1.2112 to cite this article: diop, m. s., & dramani, l. (2023). social capital, education and choice job search methods in senegal. american economic & social review, 12(1), 1-9. https://doi.org/10.46281/aesr.v12i1.2112 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) https://doi.org/10.46281/aesr.v12i1.2112 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6336-6179 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6178-875x diop & dramani, american economic & social review 12(1) (2023), 1-9 2 well-being means that the level of education can be taken into account when assessing well-being, and can serve as an implication for economic and employment policies. the aim of this article is to analyze the microeconomic impact of education on well-being as captured by social capital, measured by the different means used to look for a job in senegal. more specifically, the aim is to see how the level of education (primary, intermediate, secondary or higher), gender, age and marital status impact on personal relationships, company advertisements, state agencies and all other means used to look for a job. in writing this article, in addition to the introduction, which sets out the context and the rationale, outlining the concepts around the notion of well-being, education and social capital, addressing the problem and posing the research question, we then carried out a literature review to establish the research methodology. finally, we discuss the results obtained using the multinomial logistic method, before drawing a conclusion. literature review the concept of social capital is certainly seductive, but still encounters certain criticisms, the most pertinent of which concern methodological weaknesses with a view to its empirical application. while there is now a consensus on the definition of social capital, its dimensions are still the subject of numerous methodological debates, which seem to be more of an intellectual race. thus, knowing the microeconomic impact of education on well-being makes it possible to appreciate and understand how each level of education behaves in relation to each means used to seek employment. the relationship between education and social capital sorin (2010) extending social capital into adult education gave a brief review of the definition of social capital by some key authors (coleman, putman, fukuyama), before quoting bourdieu (1997) who states that social capital is part of the explanation for the persistence of class inequalities based on unequal resources of economic and cultural capital. first, he echoed putman (1995), emler and frazer (1999) and van deth and maraffi (1999) to show that educated people tend to participate more in voluntary associations, have a greater interest in politics and are more civically engaged. referring to the work of nie (1996), which shows that "educated people are more inclined to trust others, in institutions, to connect with different groups and to be civically involved in the community", he asserted that education is a good predictor at the individual level, being even more important than other factors such as: age, material conditions, gender etc.... finally, to demonstrate the direct and indirect positive impact of education on social capital, he draws on bynner and ashford (1994) and emler and frazer (1999) who point out that "the rate of civic participation suggests that education has a direct positive impact on civic and political association, through the acquisition of cognitive resources, knowledge and useful skills, as well as indirectly through access to high-level jobs". sorin shows us here that education is a powerful generator of social capital. kamanzi and trottier (2010) examining the extent to which the probability of access to permanent employment after postsecondary graduation is associated with the social capital that an individual is able to mobilize, refer to burt (1995), who defines "social capital as the set of relationships between friends and colleagues, as well as with other people, that enable the investment of various forms of capital (financial, cultural, etc.)", to show that the creation of social capital is associated with the creation of a permanent job, to show that the creation of new contacts beyond the immediate social circle extends the social information network and thus enriches social capital. then, to show that social capital has the same properties as other forms of capital, they draw on robison (2002), who state that: social capital can be combined with other forms of capital (human, financial, economic or cultural) to meet needs of a social or economic nature (transformation capacity). social capital is a means of mediating the creation of other resources (ability to create other capital), either for its own extension, or for the acquisition of other forms of capital (human, financial, economic or physical). social capital is obtained through the investment of other resources (investment opportunities). finally, granovetter and lin (1973; 1982), ensel and vaughn (1981), show that although education remains an indispensable tool in the search for a job, social relations and an individual's initial social position play an important role in the race for the best jobs. here, lin (1995; 2000), point to two types of social capital: "latent social capital", which refers to the social networks to which an individual belongs without necessarily having chosen them, and which he or she can call upon to achieve goals, and "mobilized social capital", which refers to the deliberate choice made by an individual in order to find a job of social contacts and their mobilization to achieve its objectives. dupray and vignale (2019), studying the conditions for a return at the start of working life, to the department of residence at the baccalaureate, for young people who left it during their higher education (what the territory says about the influence of social capital), call on wagner (2007), who states that "geographical mobility is conceived as a spin-off of families social and cultural capital, and as a means of extending social and symbolic resources, in the case of international mobility, this is more the preserve of the upper classes", to show that the experience of geographical displacement could thus confer on individuals a capacity to emancipate themselves from ties of attachment to a territory, especially as its repetition in the trajectory limits the length of local registration necessary for the construction and mobilization of localized social capital. then, through hinton (2011), who showed that "the convergence of profiles should be all the more evident when we focus on young baccalaureate holders living in sparsely populated urban areas and conducive to the activation of localized social capital", dupray and vignale stipulate that geographic mobility was conceived more as a distancing in the absence of adequate nearby educational infrastructures or a strategy for accessing other opportunities for mobilizing economic and cultural capital. to conclude, they refer to forse (2001), rosvall, rönnlund, and johansson (2018), who have shown that "neighborhood networks for access to employment or education are particularly valued by the least qualified individuals and those residing in rural communes or small towns", to highlight the importance of social determinants and in particular the existence or absence of ties to family and friends in geographic mobilities. in short, we can conclude that geographic mobility leads to the creation of ties of attachment to a territory, which inhibits the mobilization of localized diop & dramani, american economic & social review 12(1) (2023), 1-9 3 social capital, even though the latter would make certain return mobilities intelligible, in this case those involving returns to territories that appear unattractive, particularly in economic terms. three important points emerged from this review:  firstly, education is an indispensable tool in the job search, and that an individual's social relations and initial social position play an important role in the race for better jobs.  secondly, that education is a powerful generator of social capital, and that family social capital has an impact on school performance.  finally, that there are two types of social capital: "latent social capital" refers to the social networks to which an individual belongs without necessarily having chosen them, and which he or she can use to achieve goals, and "mobilized social capital" refers to the deliberate choice of social contacts and their mobilization to achieve goals. social capital as a measure of well-being forse (2001), seeking to demonstrate the importance of social capital on job search, uses data from the "emploi" survey carried out on a french sample of 150 000 individuals of working age. the endogenous variable is an indicator composed of personal approaches (family relationships, other personal relationships, competitions, classified ads, anpe, school, contacted directly by the employer, business start-up, other) and the exogenous characteristic variables (social origin, level of education, profession and income) in order to approximate the intervention of social capital in the status acquisition process. the results, obtained using a logit model, show that education level has a significant effect on the use of social capital (chi-square = 166.69, ddl = 8, p < 0.001). the lowest levels of education mainly choose family and to a lesser extent, other personal relationships. intermediate levels make the least use of their network, while higher education graduates prefer contacts made with an employer or as part of their training. kamanzi and deblois (2007) seeking to examine the extent to which the probability of accessing permanent employment after graduation from a post-secondary institution is associated with the social capital an individual is able to mobilize, performs a secondary analysis of data from the 1995 national graduates survey conducted by statistics canada in 1997 on a sample of 61 759 graduates. 43 040 selected candidates responded to the questionnaire. the dependent variable was permanent employment, while the independent variable was mobilized social capital, grouped into four categories: 1) placement office or service, response to an ad in the newspaper, internet or other sources; 2) family member, friend or teacher; 3) current employer and 4) previous employer. as control variables, they took human capital (level and field of study as well as work experience), job structure (the sector of the job held and the link between training and employment) and the individual's social characteristics (gender and age). the results obtained through binary logistic regression show that level and field of study, as well as professional experience, exert a significant influence on the probability of access to permanent employment. in additional, job-seeking graduates who obtained information from public sources (employment office or service, newspaper, internet, etc.) were relatively more likely to find a permanent job. nouzha and outtaj (2020) estimating the return on education in the moroccan labor market, uses the 2011 national employment survey (nes) database, for a sample of 14 554 corresponds to the size of the employed labor force. the recoded salary variable, discretized into 5 classes of equal amplitude, was chosen as the endogenous variable, with seniority class, age, gender, marital status and degree as the independent variables. the results obtained through multinomial logistic regression confirm a positive relationship between formal education, on-the-job training, lifelong learning and the level of wages received by an individual. materials and methods theoretical framework of the model several approaches and theories have been mobilized to address the central problem. the approach adopted is identical to that used by forse (2001) in his research on the "specific role and growth of social capital". more specifically, the aim is to show that the type of network used to look for a job is mainly correlated with the individual's level of education. the theoretical framework chosen is a multinomial logistic regression model (mlm), where we wish to model the interactions that exist between a categorical dependent variable with more than two modalities yi and a vector of random variables x= (x1......xk). its generic form is given by the following expression: yi = βjxik + σij (1) with xik: the feature matrix; βj: the feature-related coefficient matrix and σi: the error term. model specification we observe a sample of (n) individuals divided into (j) possible categories, and each individual (i) belongs to one of the j possible categories. it is described by a set of (k) characteristic variables xi1, xi2,..., xik as in the work of forse (2001) and kamanzi and deblois (2007). our model is based on the idea that: the probability that a graduate i, given his characteristic variables xik, belongs to a possible category j having used personal relationships as a means to look for a job is supposed to depend on xik or on a linear combination of xik. to differentiate ourselves from the work of nouzha and outtaj, our research is specified on the one hand by characteristic variables (level of education, age, gender, marital status) relating to individuals aged at least 15 and on the other hand by the endogenous variable "means used to look for a job". the model will be estimated using multinomial logistic regression to measure the impact and significance of each level of education on the different means used to find a job in senegal. the data used come from the database of the national agency for statistics and demography (nasd), yet the senegal poverty monitoring survey (spms) is based on a sample of 168 203 individuals. diop & dramani, american economic & social review 12(1) (2023), 1-9 4 the model is specified as follows 0 personal relationships 1 advertisements-companies (advertisements/media/internet; application to companies) yi = 2 agencies-state (civil service; employment department; private employment agency; competitions/tests) 3 other (partner search; funding search; all other means) the probability that an individual i, given his or her characteristics xik, belongs to the possible category j, having used all four modalities to look for a job, can be written as follows: p(j xi)⁄ = g (β0x0 + β1x1 + ⋯ βkxk)= g (xiβj) (2) the difficulty is to find a functional form g such that each quantity p (j/xi) is a probability, i.e. has the following two properties: 0 < p (j/𝑥𝑖) > 1 et ∑ 𝑃(𝑗/𝑥𝑖) = 1 𝑗 𝑖 (3) to ensure strict positivity, let's take the exponential form: p (j/𝑥𝑖) = e𝑥𝑖𝛽𝑗 (4) but this quantity can take on values greater than 1. it is normalized by the sum of exp (xiβi). the model is written : p (𝑗/𝑥𝑖) = 𝑒𝑥𝑖𝛽𝑗 ∑ 𝑒𝑥𝑖𝛽𝑗𝑗 𝑖 for j = 0,1,……..j (5) the general expression of the final regression model is therefore written as follows: p(𝑌 = 𝑗/𝑋) = 𝑒 𝛽𝑗𝑋𝑖 1+∑ 𝑒 𝛽𝑗𝑋𝑖𝑗−1 𝑗=0 for j = 0,1 … 3 (6) with 𝛽𝑗𝑋𝑖 = 𝛽1𝑙𝑒𝑣_𝑖𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖 + 𝛽2𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑖 + 𝛽3𝑠𝑖𝑡_𝑀𝑎𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑖 + 𝛽4 𝑠𝑒𝑥𝑒𝑖 note: the « personal relations » modality will be taken as the reference. diop & dramani, american economic & social review 12(1) (2023), 1-9 5 results model estimation following model estimation using stata software, the following results are obtained. table 1. coefficient of multinomial logistic regression source: author based on mlm estimation results in stata note: *, ** and *** indicate the degrees of significance of the regression coefficients at 10%, 5% and 1% respectively interpretation of results with regard to the « company advertisements » modality, which is made up of media-internet advertisements and applications to companies, the level of education variable shows that individuals with an elementary education use it less to look for a job, compared to those with an intermediate, secondary or higher education. the finding shows that the higher the individual's level of education, the greater the likelihood of using company advertisements (0.18 for average; 1.64 for secondary and 1.85 for higher). compared with "personal relationships" as the reference modality, the results show that primary school students are more likely to use personal relationships than business advertisements, and that middle, high school and higher education students are more likely to use business advertisements than personal relationships when looking for a job. compared to male job seekers, the fact that the job seeker is a woman increases the likelihood of using business ads more than personal contacts. similarly, the older the job seeker, the lower the probability of using business-tobusiness advertising (1.18; 0.46; -1.96 ; -25.93). individuals aged between 30 and 49, compared with those under 30, have a higher probability of using business advertisements rather than personal relationships, while those aged 50 to 60+ have a lower probability of choosing business advertisements, and make greater use of personal relationships. in addition, jobseekers who are single or widowed have a higher probability of using job ads rather than personal relationships, while those who are married, divorced or in a common-law relationship are more likely to use personal relationships and less likely to use job ads in their job search. with regard to the « state-agencies » modality, comprising the civil service, the employment office, the private placement agency and the concours/test, the level of education variable shows, with different probabilities, that an individual can use this modality (state-agencies) to look for a job, regardless of the level of education attained. the finding shows that high-school graduates have a higher probability (2.59) of using state agencies to look for a job, compared to primary (0.45), middle (0.95) and higher (1.52) school graduates. compared with "personal relations" as the reference modality, the results show that, whatever the level of education attained, individuals make more use of state agencies than of personal relations to look for a job. compared to male jobseekers, the fact that the jobseeker is a woman increases the multinomial logistic regression number of obs = 119253 lr chi2(45) = . prob > chi2 = . pseudo r2 = 0.1856 log likelihood = 97845.229 independent variables dependent variable: means used to find employment: the « personal relations » modality is taken as the reference modality. company-ads state-agencies others coef coef coef lev-instruction primary middle secondary higher -3.386762*** .1883683*** 1.646289*** 1.858117*** .4568449*** .9585309*** 2.597339*** 1.521009*** -.3795685*** -.2196879*** .0167717 .3511608*** sexe male (base) female 1.37479*** .3518313*** -.189192*** age -30 ans (base) 30-39ans 40-49ans 50-59ans 60ans et plus 1.187831*** .4694905*** -1.961951*** -25.93686*** .3830415*** -1.633581*** -20.45673*** -23.14468*** -.0757514** -1.52931*** .1558382*** .7399174*** sit-matrimonial 1st wife 2 wives/2nd wife 3 wives/3rd wife single widowed divorced cohabiting/common-law -20.52326*** -.1064832** -25.79717*** .5464185*** 2.153531*** -.8483453*** -1.096479*** -.4597964*** -1.484107*** -25.68436*** -.2386319*** -17.84218*** -.5154744*** 23.12146*** 1.904159*** 1.113398*** 3.872747*** .0714975* 1.182533*** .7750316*** .4792897*** diop & dramani, american economic & social review 12(1) (2023), 1-9 6 probability of using state agencies rather than personal contacts. similarly, the older the job seeker, the lower the probability of using state agencies (0.38; -1.63; -20.45; -23.14). individuals aged between 30 and 39 compared with those under 30 are more likely to use state agencies than personal relationships, while those aged 40 to 60+ are less likely to choose state agencies and more likely to use personal relationships. on the other hand, jobseekers in a common-law relationship have a higher probability of using state agencies rather than personal contacts, unlike those who are married, divorced, single or widowed, who prefer personal contacts to state agencies in their job search. for the « other » modality, made up of partner search, funding search and all other means used, the level of education variable shows that primary and intermediate level individuals use it less to look for a job, compared to those with a higher level of education. secondary level is not significant (prob = 0.746). compared with "personal relationships" as the reference modality, the results show that primary and middle school students use personal relationships more than other means to look for a job, while high school students use other means more than personal relationships. compared to males, the fact that the job seeker is a woman increases the likelihood of using personal contacts more than other means. similarly, the older the job seeker, the greater the probability of using other means (-0.75; -1.52; 0.15; 0.73). individuals aged between 30 and 49 compared with those under 30 have a higher probability of using personal relationships rather than other means, while those aged 50 to 60+ have a higher probability of choosing other means and make less use of personal relationships. in addition, whatever their marital status, jobseekers have a higher probability of using other means rather than personal relationships, but married (1.90; 1.11; 3.87) and widowed (1.18) people use other means more, compared with single (0.07), divorced (0.77) and common-law (0.47) people. discussions the « level of education » has effects on every means used to look for a job. we find that jobseekers in primary, middle and secondary school make more use of « state agencies » than of « company advertisements » and « other means ». higherlevel jobseekers made more use of "company advertisements" than of "state agencies" and "other means". the results therefore show that the higher an individual's level of education, the more he or she prefers company advertisements in their job search. on the one hand, the fact that jobseekers at primary, intermediate or secondary level make more use of "state agencies" can be explained by the fact that the positions to be filled are usually advertised, and that there are generally specific needs for each level. on the other hand, the fact that individuals with a higher level of education make more use of "company advertisements", made up of advertisements/media/internet and applications to companies, can be explained by the fact that the higher the individual's level of education, the more he or she has the opportunity to familiarize themselves with new information and communication technologies, which enable them to be aware in real time of any offers and calls for applications. our findings are confirmed by cisse (2005) with data from quid 2001, where he shows that a higher level of education increases the chances of seeking and finding employment. these results have important implications in terms of education and guidance policies. indeed, the estimation has shown the contributions of each level of education on which governments could act. in our case, the actions to be taken must be geared towards achieving higher levels of education and prioritizing the higher level, since the latter favors the individual over all the means used to seek employment. these actions require, firstly, a generalization of the education system, secondly, an effective fight against drop-outs and repetition, and thirdly, a match between the supply of training and the demand on the job market. such approaches are necessary to facilitate the link between education and employment. however, they remain a long-term solution involving the contribution of the state and educational development bodies. the « gender » has an effect on every means used to find a job. the fact that the job seeker is a woman has a positive impact on "company ads" and "state agencies". on the other hand, this impact becomes negative if the job seeker uses "other means" (partner search, funding search, etc.). the results show that women prefer company ads and state agencies to other means of job search. this shows that women, compared to men, use almost (2/3) of the means proposed to look for a job. this may be explained by the fact that, unlike men, women are less inclined to take risks and prefer to rely more on formal job-seeking channels. these results are in line with the policies implemented to promote women's emancipation: promotion of women's rights, equity and equal opportunities, preference for female candidates and the granting of quotas for certain job offers, etc. these policies mean that women are now more likely to seek and obtain employment than men. gakou and kuepie (2008) confirm our results, indicating that the education of malian women clearly increases their probability of entering the formal sector, and that for all individuals who have reached secondary school level, the proportion of women in the formal sector exceeds that of men. boutin (2010) finds the opposite to be true, revealing that at equal levels of education, men compared to women are more likely to be employed. these results have important implications in terms of equal opportunity policies. in fact, the estimation enabled us to identify the impact of each gender on the different means used to seek employment. in our case, the actions to be taken should be more geared towards equity and equal opportunities in the job offer. action to achieve this objective requires a fair policy that discriminates between men and women with equal qualifications and skills. such an approach is necessary to promote parity and equal employment opportunities. the « age » bracket has an effect on every means used to look for a job. if age is between 30 and 39, jobseekers make more use of "company ads" and "state agencies" than of "other means". if their age is between 40 and 49, they make more use of "ads-companies" than of "state agencies" and "other means". and if age is between 50 and 60+, they use "other means" more than "company ads" and "state agencies". the results therefore show that the older the jobseeker, the more likely he or she is to use "other means", unlike younger jobseekers who prefer "company ads" and "state agencies". this can be explained by the fact that older people are often unable to look for a job in fields where age is a selection criterion (civil service, competitive examinations, company applications, etc.). this is why they usually make more use of "other means". diop & dramani, american economic & social review 12(1) (2023), 1-9 7 our result is confirmed by adair and bellache (2014) where they show that older individuals are more likely to work as self-employed in contrast to younger ones. as for « marital status », it has an effect on every means used to search for a job. single or widowed jobseekers make more use of "job ads" and "other means" than of "state agencies". if they're married or divorced, they make more use of "other means" to the detriment of "company ads" and "state agencies". and if they're in a common-law relationship, they make more use of "state agencies" and "other means" than "business ads". the results show that whatever the individual's marital status, using "other means" to look for a job can be a choice. this can be explained by the fact that the "other means" used to search for a job do not usually have discriminatory criteria in relation to the individual's marital status. the finding shows that singles and those in common-law unions, respectively, direct their job search towards "ads-companies" and "agencies-state", this can be explained by the fact that the latter are often young people, thus meeting the age criterion once imposed by these means. the fact that married people prefer other means of seeking employment is explained by the fact that this means offers more opportunities and is not based on periodic job offers. our result is in line with those njikam and mwaffo (2005) found in cameroon and those adair and bellache (2014) found in algeria, showing that being married significantly increases the probability of accessing a job. they explain this result by the fact that married people, facing more intense social pressure, have a more active job search than single people. generally speaking, our results confirm that individuals with a higher level of education are able to use each of these three modalities to look for a job, but with different probabilities (1.80 for ads-companies; 1.52 for agencies-state; 0.35 for others). this shows that the higher an individual's level of education, the more likely he or she is to join networks, expand his or her address book and interact with others. the creation of these new contacts beyond the immediate social circle, enables the higher-level individual to extend his or her social network and consequently obtain information, support and guidance that is nowadays a crucial element in the job search process. conclusions the apprehension of well-being through social capital, measured by the different means used to seek employment, does not seek to replace the more traditional forms of appreciation of well-being, but rather offers a complementary form of appreciation by focusing on each level of education and the advantages it presents for the individual in terms of choice over the different means used to seek employment. social capital cannot be confused with human capital insofar as the latter concerns wealth acquired in isolation and individually, whereas social capital by definition requires interaction and exchange between people in the context of a socialized life : sibony (2016). through estimation by the multinomial logistic method, the main results of this paper are noted as follows:  the primary level is globally significant and impacts positively on "agencies-state" but negatively on "adscompanies" and "others" ;  the middle level is significant overall, and has a positive impact on "ads-companies" and "government agencies", but a negative impact on "others";  the secondary level has a positive and significant impact on "ads-companies" and "government-agencies";  the higher level has a positive and significant impact on all the means used to look for a job. relying on "personal relationships" as the reference modality, the results show that individuals at primary level make more use of personal relationships rather than company advertisements, while those at middle, secondary or higher level prefer company advertisements rather than personal relationships to look for a job. compared to the "state-agencies" modality, the results show that whatever the level of education obtained, individuals make more use of state-agencies than of personal contacts to look for a job. compared with the "other" modality, the results show that individuals with primary or intermediate education make more use of personal contacts than of other means to find a job, while those with higher education prefer other means to personal contacts. overall, the results show that only the higher level has a positive and significant impact on all the means used to find a job, albeit at different levels and probabilities. to maintain the positive impact of this level, we recommend on the one hand increasing the resources allocated to the higher level in order to generalize and modernize it further. however, a significant proportion of these resources should be allocated to universities to strengthen their accommodation capacities and working conditions (teachers, students), to disadvantaged areas to correct inter-zonal disparities in terms of logistics (higher structures), but also to fight effectively against repeaters and dropouts. and secondly, to introduce support policies that require parents or guardians to invest more in their children's education, right up to the baccalaureate or at least a university degree. to succeed in this challenge, the state and the structures and bodies responsible for developing the education system need to define and map out real routes to guarantee everyone access to higher quality education. in short, while social capital is recognised as an essential microeconomic component in the measurement of wellbeing, it suffers from significant limitations as a measure, as it incorporates characteristics of social organisation such as trust, norms and the structuring of networks, but leaves out the nature of the relationship that an individual must maintain with society in order to live harmoniously. future research could analyse the impact of family social capital on an individual's educational success. author contributions: conceptualization, m.s.d. and l.d.; methodology, m.s.d.; software, m.s.d.; validation, m.s.d. and l.d.; formal analysis, m.s.d.; investigation, m.s.d.; resources, m.s.d.; data curation, m.s.d.; writing – original draft preparation, m.s.d.; writing – review & editing, m.s.d.; visualization, m.s.d; supervision, l.d.; project administration, m.s.d. authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript. diop & dramani, american economic & social review 12(1) (2023), 1-9 8 institutional review board statement: ethical review and approval were waived for this study, due to that the research does not deal with vulnerable groups or sensitive issues. funding: the authors received no direct funding for this research. acknowledgments: support of crefat (this research center for applied economics and finance). informed consent statement: informed consent was obtained from all subjects involved in the study. data availability statement: the data presented in this study are available on request from the corresponding author. the data are not publicly available due to restrictions. conflicts of interest: the authors declare no conflict of interest. references adair, p and bellache, y. 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(2007). social class and globalization. sociology benchmark, 40, 89-98. https://doi.org/10.3917/dec.wagne.2007.01 publisher’s note: cribfb stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. © 2023 by the authors. licensee cribfb, usa. this article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution (cc by) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). american economic & social review (p-issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277) by cribfb is licensed under a creative commons attribution 4.0 international license. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr american economic & social review; vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 published by centre for research on islamic banking & finance and business, usa 45 dividend decision and economic value added of quoted nigeria manufacturing firms agilebu ogechi michael department of banking and finance rivers state university, port harcourt, nigeria e-mail: ogeberth2003@gmail.com abstract this study examined the effect dividend decision and economic value added of quoted manufacturing firms in nigeria. the objective is to examine if dividend decision have any effect on economic valued added of the nigeria firms. cross sectional data was sourced from financial statement of 15 quoted manufacturing firms. economic valued added was proxy for dependent variables while dividend yield, dividend payout ratio, retention ratio and dividend per share were proxy for predictor variables. after cross examination of the validity of the pooled effect, fixed effect and the random effect, the study accepts the fixed effect model. findings revealed that75 percent variation from the fixed effect results on economic value added of the manufacturing firms. beta coefficient of the predictor variables found that dividend yield have negative effect on economic value added while dividend per share, dividend payout ratio and retention ratio has positive and significant effect on economic value added of the quoted manufacturing firms. it’s therefore recommend that constant dividend decision should be maintained among the quoted manufacturing firms and retention forms should be properly invested and the investment environment should be well managed to increase economic value added through the dividend decision channel. keywords: dividend decision, economic value added, quoted nigeria manufacturing firms 1. introduction the accepted financial principle is that the role of managers is to maximize the wealth of shareholders by the efficient allocation of resources. in order to operationalise this objective, shareholder wealth is traditionally proxy by either standard accounting magnitudes such as profits, earnings and cash flows from operations or financial statement ratios including earnings per share and the returns on assets, investment and equity. this financial statement information is then used by managers, shareholders and other interested parties to assess current firm performance and also used by these same stakeholders to predict future performance. further, under the semi-strong form of the efficient market hypothesis, the publicly available information contained in these variables is readily interpreted by the market and thereby incorporated into future stock prices (damodaran, 2006a). the conventional thought that dividend policy is relevant and matters on the performance of the firm can be traced to graham and dodd (1934) who were proponents of traditionalist schools of thought, later to lintner (1956) and to gordon (1960) while miller and modigliani (1961) argued that dividend policy is irrelevant under certain assumptions. dividend policy decision is a finance management function (ezirim, 2005). dividend policy determines the proportion of company’s profit that can be distributed to the shareholders as return on investment and proportion that will be retained for the company’s reinvestment (osegbu, ifurueze and ifurueze, 2014). it is one of the most important financial decisions that corporate managers’ encounter (m’rebetandboujjat, 2016).dividend policy is a micro determinant of firms’ profitability. firms adopt dividend policy that will facilitate the achievement of the organizational goals such as maximization of shareholders wealth. like investment and capital structure decision, dividend policy influences the value and cost capital in the firm. unfortunately, the empirical literature to date suggests that there is no single finance based measure upon which one can rely to explain changes in shareholder wealth (chen and dodd, 1997; riahi-belkaoui, 1993; rogerson, 1997; lehn and makhija, 1997; akani and lucky, 2015: lucky, 2018; anyamaobi and lucky, 2018). this is despite the fact that such a measure would prove invaluable to the various parties interested in aspects of firm performance. lee (1996) for example, argued that the search for a superior measure of firm valuation is not the, key feature of contemporary empirical finance. for years, investors and corporate managers have been seeking a timely and reliable measurement of shareholders’ wealth. with such a measure, investors could spot over or underpriced stocks, lenders could gauge the security of their loans and managers could monitor the profitability of their factories, divisions and firms (gay, lin and smith, 2010). one professedly recent innovation in the field of finance on performance measurement is an economic value-added. economic value added is the financial performance measure that comes closer than any other to capturing the true economic profit of an enterprise. it is the copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 46 performance measure most directly linked to the creation of shareholder wealth over time. from the above problems, this study examined the effect of corporate dividend decision on the economic value added of quoted firms in nigeria. 2. literature review 2.1 dividend decision dividend decision refers to a company’s policy which determines the amount of dividend payments and the amounts of retained earnings for reinvesting in new projects. this decision is related to dividing the firm’s earning between payment to shareholders and reinvestment in new opportunities. dividend decision involves the determination of the payout policy that management follows in determining the size and pattern of cash distributions to shareholders over time (lease et al, 2000). dividend decision was just concerned with selecting between payments of earnings to shareholder as cash dividend or retaining the profit in firm. it only determined the incidence of dividend payments and the amount dividends. however, in today’s corporate finance, dividend policy addresses more issues such as how firms can attract investors in different tax brackets and how firms can increase the market value of firm and share repurchase instead of cash dividends. 2.2 types of dividend decision 2.2.1 pure residual dividend decision this states that when the corporation’s return on equity capital is greater than the rate of return the investor could obtain by reinvesting those dividends in another investment of equivalent risk, the investor would rather the corporation act on his behalf and reinvest the earnings rather than issue a dividend; the firm can determine which option is better suited to benefiting the investor by first identifying the firm’s optimal capital budget, thereby noting the level of equity capital required, and then maintaining the amount of earnings required to finance the equity capital in the capital budget and allowing “residual” funds (earnings not utilized in internal investment) after the mandated reinvestment to be issued as a dividend droms (1990). therefore, dividends are a function of earnings fluctuations, and this method allows for significant fluctuations in dividends with changes in earnings and corporate investment opportunities. in effect, all residual earnings are paid out which causes the dividend payout ratio to fluctuate. this policy also results in a dividend that varies from year to year, and when equity investment is greater than earnings, equity financing must be initiated to create a residual (droms, 1990). 2.2.2 smoothed residual dividend decision this suggests that dividend fluctuations are kept to a minimum. dividend policy changes tend to lag behind earnings fluctuations according to shapiro, as dividends are set equal to the long-run residual between forecasted earnings and investment requirements. dividend changes, in turn, are made only when this long run residual is expected to change; earnings fluctuations believed to be temporary are ignored in setting dividend payments, the clear preference is for a stable, but increasing, dividend per share (shapiro, 1990). as such, the dividend payout ratio fluctuates significantly with this payment method, and dividends have the potential to exceed the residual if earnings are unexpectedly low. 2.2.3 constant or fixed decision the company pays out a fixed amount of its profit after tax as dividend. thus, the company maintains a fixed payout ratio of dividend. pandey (2005) define payout as the ratio of dividend to earnings. a company may as a matter of policy, decide to constantly payout sixty percent of its after tax profit as dividend to its shareholders and retaining the remaining fraction. this type of policy allows the shareholders the opportunity to clearly know the amount of dividend to expect from their investments in the company. however as noted by watson and head (2004), the policy could be traumatic to companies experiencing a volatile or fluctuating profit earning. this is because of the uncertainty of its profit. if capital projects are to viable capital projects, the policy can be chaotic. 2.2.4 progressive decision payments on dividend are on a steady increase usually in line with inflation. this could result in increasing dividend in money terms. the firm uses the policy as a ratchet. every effort is made to sustain the increase even though marginal. seldom, the company may be constrained to cut down on dividend payout. this is to enable it sustain its operations. this though not a frequent action as it sends a wrong signal to investors. firms operating this policy will opt to avoid paying dividends during the period rather than consistently cut down on the dividend (kolb & rodriguez, 1996). 2.2.5 zero dividend decision some firms may decide not to pay dividend. this is especially common in newly formed companies that rather require capital to execute its projects. all the profit is thus retained for expansion of the business. investors who prefer capital gains to dividends copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 47 because of taxation will naturally be lured by this kind of policy. this type of policy is quite easy to operate and avoids all the costs associated with payment of dividends watson and head (2004). 2.2.6 alternative decision in order to give shareholders a choice between dividends or new shares, the company might choose to buy back shares. this is share or stock repurchase. this has a significant advantage in terms of tax to the shareholder. while the dividend is fully taxed just as ordinary income, the stock repurchase or buyback is not taxed until the shares are sold and the shareholder makes a profit or capital gain (jordan, et al., 2001). there is also the policy of stock dividends and split. shareholders are given additional shares in lieu of cash to the shareholders brealey and myers (2003). 2.3 economic value-added despite the relatively recent adoption of economic value added as an internal and external financial performance measure, its conceptual underpinnings derive from a well-established microeconomic literature regarding the link between firm earnings and wealth creation (bell, 1998). for much of this history, at least since alfred marshall’s principles of economics, the focus of analysis has been on adjustments to accounting earnings to reflect the opportunity cost of capital, primarily because the unadjusted measure can be a misleading indicator of performance in both theory and practice. the desirability of quantifying economic profit as a measure of wealth creation was operationalised by david solomon (1965) as the difference between two quantities, net earnings and the cost of capital. this measure of ‘residual income’ is then defined in terms of after-tax operating profits less a charge for invested capital which reflects the firm’s weighted average cost of capital. close parallels are thereby found in the related (non-trademarked) concepts of ‘abnormal earnings excess earnings excess income excess realizable profits’ and ‘super profits’ (biddle et al., 1997). the economic value added (eva) approach is a widely used excess return model. the cash flows, generated by an investment projects, that are smaller or larger than the required return (cost of capital) are called excess returns, and can be both negative and positive. cash flows of investments that exactly yield the required rate of return are considered as normal returns. the eva of a project is obtained by multiplying the excess return of an investment by the amount of money invested (damodaran, 2006a; titman & martin, 2008). the calculation of firm value with the eva model brings along some troubles. for example, to obtain the capital invested, often book values are used, which often do not reflect the proper (market) value of an asset and which could yield inaccurate valuations. in addition, imam et al. (2008) found that, although the standard dcf model has the same structure of discounting cash flows and similar inputs, the eva model was considered to be of very little importance by the interviewed analysts, whereas the standard dcf model was considered as highly important. 2.4 dividend irrelevance theory modigliani and miller (1961) dividend-irrelevance theory says that investors can affect their return on a stock regardless of the stock's dividend. investor could then buy more stock with the dividend that is over the investor's expectations. as such, the dividend is irrelevant to investors, meaning investors care little about a company's dividend policy since they can simulate their own. their theory was built on a range of key assumptions, similar to those on which they based their theory of capital structure irrelevancy. modigliani and miller (1961) argue that the value of the firm in a perfect capital market depends only on the income produced by its assets not on how this income is split between dividends and the retained earnings. assumed that in a perfect capital markets, that is there are no taxes both corporate and personal taxes, no transaction costs on securities, investors are rational, information is symmetrical hence all investors have access to the same information and share the same expectations about the firm's future as its managers. according to m&m's irrelevancy theory, if therefore does not matter how a firm divides its earnings between dividend payments to shareholders and internal retentions. dividend irrelevancy theory asserts that a firm's dividend policy has no effect on its market value or its cost of capital. 2.5 bird in hand theory gordon and lintner (1959) the bird-in-the-hand theory states that dividends are relevant. the bird-in-the-hand may sound familiar as it is taken from an old saying; a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. in this theory the bird in the hand' is referring to dividends and the bush is referring to capital gains. they argued that investors value dividends more than capital gains when making decisions related to stocks. as a company increases its payout ratio, investors become concerned that the company's future capital gains will dissipate since the retained earnings that the company reinvests into the business will be less. the essence of the bird-in-the-hand theory of dividend policy is that shareholders are risk-averse and prefer to receive dividend payments rather than future capital gains. shareholders consider dividend payments to be more certain that future capital gains thus a bird in the hand is worth more than two in the bush. gordon contended that the payment of current dividends resolves investor uncertainty. investors have a preference for a certain level of income now rather that the prospect of a higher, but less copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 48 certain, income at some time in the future. investors’ value a dollar expected dividend more highly than a dollar expected capital gain because the dividend yields component is less risky than the expected return hence, believed that investors require and prefer high dividends to capital gains resulting to a generous dividend policy by a firm. 2.6 information asymmetry and dividend signaling given information asymmetry as a market imperfection, the signaling concept of financial capital structure can be readily applied to dividend policy. according to the dividend signaling theory, a firm that increases its dividend payouts is signaling that it has expected future cash flows sufficient to meet expenses without increasing the probability of bankruptcy. managers signal investors because financial managers have privileged information about the firm’s expected cash flows that outside investors cannot know. bhattacharya (1979) proposes a dividend signaling model to explain why firms pay dividends despite the apparent tax disadvantage. in bhattacharya’s (1979) dividend signaling model, investors believe that an unexpected dividend increase is a favorable signal. this assumes that the dividend contains information regarding firm value not conveyed in other public information, and that the dividend is a valid signal since it is expensive for less valuable firms to mimic. then the signaling value of dividends is positive and can be traded off against the tax costs. the implication of such a dividend signaling model is that it suggests an optimal dividend policy where the signaling benefits of paying dividends offsets the tax disadvantages of paying dividends. 2.7 empirical review eniola and akinselure (2016) examined the impact of dividend policy and earnings on selected quoted companies in nigeria. the secondary data were obtained through the internet from stock broking firm’s online database. multiple regression and durbin watson in testing was used in the hypothesis considered in this study, and the statistical analysis was done using statistical package for social sciences (spss version 20).the findings revealed that there was a significant relationship between dividend and market value but, this relationship can only be established between earning per share and divide and yield, because, it is the only proxies of divide and polices that had a p-value (0.020) which is less than the alpha value of (0.05) which implies that there is relationship with market value proxy (earnings per share) while the other proxies of dividend policy did not show any relationship. momgbe and ibrahim (2014) ascertained the relationship between dividend policy and corporate profitability, investment and earning per shares. data for the study were extracted from annual report and accounts of twenty five quoted companies in nigeria. the study found positive and significant association between the firm performance and dividend policy of the sampled firm. richard and thomas (2014) ascertained the impact of dividend payout on the financial performance of manufacturing firms which trade on the ghana stock exchange. panel data extracted from audited financial statements of sampled firms from 2004 to 2011 financial years were analyzed within the framework of the fixed effects model after carrying out hausman specification test. the descriptive statistics show that the average dividend payout is 32.93% while the mean performance (return on assets) is 1.08% during the study period. the regression results reveal that dividend payout significantly but negatively impacts on quoted manufacturing firms’ financial performance in ghana. for the control variables, size and leverage were inversely related to performance whiles sales growth positively correlated with performance. except size, all the control variables were found to be statistically significant. m’rbet and boujjat(2016)examined the relationship between dividend policies and financial performance of selected listed firms in morocco. data were sourced through secondary means from the annual reports of the sampled quoted firms and was analyzed using panel data regression model. two models were developed in an attempt to provide a theoretical explanation on the birds-in-hand dividend relevance theory and the modigliani and miller’s (mm) dividend irrelevance theory. the findings indicated that dividend policy is an important factor affecting firm performance. their relationship was also strong and positive. this therefore showed that dividend policy was relevant. it can be concluded, based on the findings of this research that dividend policy is relevant and that managers should devote adequate time in designing a dividend policy that will enhance firm performance and therefore shareholder value. sunday et. al (2015) are examining the relationship between dividend policy and financial performance of nonfinancial firms in nigeria. they had selected 25 listed non-financial firms in nigeria with supported by the below theoretical empirical studies and secondary data sources, the audited report of the firms had chosen. panel data methodology was employed and pooled ordinary least squares (ols) was used to estimate the coefficients of explanatory and control variables where the return on assets (roa) served as the dependent variable, profitability, while dividend payout ratio proxies for dividend policy and was the only explanatory variable. result reveals a positive and significant relationship between dividend pay-out policy (dpo) and firm performance (roa). this finding is consistent with some prior empirical studies and provides evidence in support of both signaling and bird –inhand hypotheses of dividend policy theory. barman (2008) did a survey designed to achieve an independent analysis of the dividend function used by companies in south africa. the study consisted of a sample of 42 companies both listed and private in south africa which paid a cash copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 49 dividend during the previous financial year (2007). questionnaires were sent out to the chief financial officer (cfo’s) of both listed and private firms to get managers’ view on dividend payments and the effect it has on firm value. barman study was based on questionnaires that aimed to get managers view on dividend policy and its impact on firm value in south africa. however the samples of 42 listed and private companies that selected relatively small. therefore, the results of the study are only indicative and not conclusive. according to his findings, managements are of the view that optimal policy strike a balance between dividend payment and the growth of a firm; about half of managers interviewed are neutral when asked if they think dividends policy has an impact on firm value. it appears that management do view dividend policy as being important, however majority of the managers do not think dividend policy have an effect on the intrinsic value of shares. azhagaiah and priya (2008) did a study which aimed at analyzing the impact of dividend policy on shareholders’ wealth in organic and chemical companies in india. in order to measure the impact of dividend policy on shareholders’ wealth, they used multiple regression models and stepwise regression models. they used market price per share as the dependent variable and dividend per share, retained earnings per share, lagged price earning ration and lagged market price as the independent variable. in comparing dividend and non-dividend paying firms they found that in the long-run, the wealth of shareholders in dividend paying chemical companies had increased significantly. this indicated the impact of dividend policy on wealth creation. the regression analysis indicates that dividend payments by organic and chemical companies have a positive and significant impact on their shareholders’ wealth. the authors indicated that shareholders prefer current dividend to future income, as dividends are considered as an important factor which determines shareholders ‘wealth. agyei and marfo-yiadom (2011) studied the relationship between dividend policy and performance of 16 commercial banks in ghana for a period of 5 years (1993-2003). result shows a positive relationship between dividend policy and performance. it further reveals that leverage, size of bank and growth, enhance the performance of banks. uwuigbe, jafaru and ajayi (2012) investigate the relationship between the financial performance and dividend payout among 50 listed firms in nigeria for 2006 to 2010. result shows a significant and positive association between the performance of firms and the dividend pay-out. the study also reveals that ownership structure and firm’s size has a significant impact on dividend pay-out of firms. merekefu and ouma (2012) examined the relationship between dividend pay-out and firm performance. the study was based on 41 companies listed on the nairobi securities exchange from 2002-2010. they did a regression analysis to determine the relationship between dividend payout and firm performance. net profit margin was the dependent variable, while dividends paid; total assets and revenue were the independent variables. the results indicated that about 80.7%of net profit after tax was influenced by dividends paid, total assets and revenue. they found a positive strong relationship between net profit after tax and dividends. gul (2012) examined in pakistan testing the relationship between dividend policy and shareholders’ wealth. the study was based on a sample of 72 companies listed on the karachi stock exchange from 2005-2010. the authors used multiple regression and stepwise regression method to study the impact of dividend policy on shareholders’ wealth. market value of equity is the depended variable and was used as a proxy for measuring shareholders’ wealth. the independent variables include dividend per share, retained earnings, lagged price to earnings ratio and lagged market value of equity. dividend per share was used as a proxy for measuring the dividend policy of a firm. gul (2012) found that the market value of companies that pay dividends is well above the book value as compared to companies that do not pay dividends. they reported that there is a significant difference between shareholders’ wealth in companies that pay dividends than those that do not pay dividends. their findings also indicate that the wealth of dividend payers increased significantly as compared to nonpayers, which shows the impact of dividend policy on shareholders ‘wealth. the regression analysis on the 4 models are significant at a 1% level and the results indicate that dividend per share has a significant positive influence on the dependent variable in all models except model 3. these suggest that the higher the companies pay dividend per share the higher shareholders wealth will be. timothy and peter (2012) sought to establish the relationship between dividend payout and firm performance among listed firms on the nairobi securities exchange during the period of 2002 -2010. they employed regression analysis to establish the relationship between dividend payout and firm performance. their findings indicated that dividend payout was a major factor affecting firm profitability measured by net profit after tax. their relationship was also strong and positive. this therefore showed that dividend policy was relevant. salehnezhad (2013) investigates corporate governance and dividend policy in firms listed in tehran stock exchange for the period 2010 to 2012. using fuzzy regression analysis, the result shows that a positive relationship exists between financial performance (stock returns) and dividend policy. dwita ayurizqia, sitiaisjahsimiati (2013) study the effect of managerial ownership, financial leverage, profitability, firm size and investment opportunity on dividend policy and effect of all that variables on firm value on manufacturing firms that go-public and listed in indonesia stock exchange during 2006-2011. during 2006-2009, the manufacturing sector growth is declining which will hinder goal to increase firm value. there were 15 firms committed to distribute dividends for 5consecutive years during 2007-2011 and most of 15 firms decided large copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 50 percentage of retained earnings. this also shows management decisions making influenced by distribution and growth of firm profitable investment opportunities. the sample was decided by census method. they had tested that most of the firms tend to pay dividend to the investors that believe will increase the firm share price as shareholder believe only a firm with good profit is able to payout dividend. ajanthan (2013) did a study in sri lanka on the relationship between dividend payout and profitability among listed hotels and restaurant companies on the colombo stock exchange. a than did a regression and correlation analysis to test the relationship between dividend payout and firm profitability. conclusion is that based on the results “dividend policy is relevant and that managers should pay attention and devote adequate time in designing a dividend policy that will enhance firm profitability and therefore shareholder value. oyinlola and ajeigbe (2013) examined the impact of dividend policy on the stock prices of 22quoted firms in nigeria during the period 2009 to 2013. regression analysis, correlation analysisandgranger causality test was used to test research hypothesis on 110 observations. findings reveal that both dividend payout and retained earnings are significantly relevant to the market per share of the firms. oyinlola, oyinlola and adeniran (2014) investigated the impact of performance on the dividend policy of two major brewery firms quoted on the nigerian stock exchange for the period 2002-2010. findings reveal that dividend policy is relevant and that a firm’s dividend policy is seen as a major determinant for a firm’s performance. positive relationship exists between the dividend policy and performance. osegbuet al (2014) analyses the extent of relationships between dividend payment and corporate performance in the nigerian banking industry between 1990 and 2010. using regression models, the result shows no significant relation between dividend policy and performance. interestingly, insignificant relationship occurs between dividend policy and other four explanatory variables (free cash flow, financial leverage, business risk and tax paid on dividend payment ratio). charles et al (2014) conducted a study to ascertaining the relationship between dividend policy and firm’s profitability, investment per shares. the data of this study were extracted from annual report and accounts of 2013 and 9 manufacturing firm is selected in nairobi stock exchange of kenya and other empirical study. it was discovered that the dividend policies of organizations have a significant positive relationship with profitability, investments and earnings per share of corporate organization. they proved that dividend policies of organizations are vital in enhancing the profitability and investment of manufacturing sector in kenya. fathima et al (2014), sought the impact of dividend payout on corporate profitability in the manufacturing companies listed on colombo stock exchange in sri lanka. for this purpose, the data were extracted from the annual reports of the 21 manufacturing companies during the period from 2007-2011. regression model is used to study and estimate the relationship between dividend payout and corporate profitability. the study also employed a subsample in order to arrive at a profound conclusion with regard to the impact of dividend policy on corporate profitability. the results of the study revealed that there was a significant relationship between dividend payout and corporate profitability in terms of return on assets, return on equity and earnings per share. a positive significant relation is found between dividend payout and return on assets and return on equity for the whole sample while significant negative relationship is found between dividend payout and earnings per share as far as the dividend paying sample is concerned. ifueroet al. (2016) conducted a study of effect of dividend policy on firm’s returns using data of seventeen (17) manufacturing firms listed on the nigerian stock exchange by using descriptive statistics, correlation analysis and panel regression technique, where the fixed effect regression. the finding reveal that current dividend payout, growth opportunity of firms and dividend per share has positive and significant effect on earnings per share, with that of growth having an overwhelming influence. current dividend payout and dividend per share are both significant at the 5% level. one lagged dividend payout (previous dividend payout), cash flow and leverage have positive but not significant influence on eps, while the impact of size is negative and not significant. tax preference theory stated that tax treatment may influence on the distributed income of a firm. an example given in the article, if the investors in high tax bracket might require higher pre-tax risk adjusted premium returns to hold stocks with higher dividend yield. farsio et al. (2004) argue that there is no significant relationship between dividends and earnings hold in the long run and studies that support this relationship are based on short periods and therefore misleading to investors. as it point out that an increase in dividends many lead to a decline in funds that are to be reinvested and pay high dividend without considering investment needs may lead to lower future earnings. thus is a negative relationship between dividend payout and future earnings. grullanet al. (2005)revealed that dividends changes are very poor indicators of both earnings and profitability levels hence concluded that there is no evidence supporting the idea that dividend increases signal better prospects for firm profitability. yusuf (2015) examined the impact of performance on dividend payout ratio of some selected commercial banks in nigeria spanning the periods between 2004 and 2013. guided by explanatory research design, four commercial banks were selected and data relating to relevant variables of leverage and profitability and dividend payout ratio were gathered. correlation analysis and multiple regressions were carried out to analyses the data. the findings revealed that dividend payout ratio is copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 51 negatively related to banks’ leverage and profitability. the study concludes that dividend payout ratio is inversely related to performance of commercial banks in nigeria. simon-oke and ologdinwa (2016) evaluated the effect of dividend policy on corporate performance in nigeria, using time series data generated from secondary sources through the publications of nigeria stock exchange and financial statements of the companies under review. the study also employed ols multiple regression analytical techniques to establish the relationships among the variables of dividend policy and the corporate performance of firms in nigeria. the findings reveal that dividend policy in nigeria still remains a function of strong dynamic variables such as return on investment (roi), earnings per share (eps) and dividend per share (dps). osegbu,ifurueze and ifurueze(2014) analyzed the extent of relationships between dividend payment and corporate performance in the nigerian banking industry. the study uses a panel data set of banks listed on the nigeria stock exchange between the year 1990 and 2010. the five hypotheses were applied to examine the extent and the level of significance of the relationship between the amount of dividend payment and corporate performance using regression models. the research indicated that there is no significant relationship between dividend payout of banks in nigeria and the explanatory variables. uwuigbe (2012) investigated the relationship between the financial performance and dividend payout among listed firms’ in nigeria. it also looks at the relationship between ownership structure, size of firms and the dividend payouts. the annual reports for the period2006-2010 were utilized as the main source of data collection for the50 sampled firms. the regression analysis method was employed as a statistical technique for analyzing the data collected. the study found that that there is a significant positive association between the performance of firms and the dividend payout of the sampled firms in nigeria. the study also revealed that ownership structure and firm’s size has a significant impact of the dividend payout of firms too. nwannamka and ezeabsili (2017) examined the effects of dividend policy on firm value. the study covers 10 quoted companies studied for the period of 1995-2015. the methodology adopted is the ordinary least square regression analysis for primary data analyses and multiple regression analysis for the secondary data analyses with models mps (market price per share) as dependent variable, eps (earnings per share) and dps (dividend per share) as independent variables. the study shows the relevance of dividend, dividend as a signaling model and proves that firm value is greatly influenced by dividend policy as far as public limited companies are concerned. peter and lyndon (2016) this study investigated the relationship between dividend payout policyand firm performance in nigeria, using a sample of some listed firms in the nigerian stock exchange (nse) for the period 2002 to 2012. the study adopted comparative/descriptive research designs as a set of time series dimension of panel data estimation techniques were utilized. the result shows a positive and significant relationship between dividend payout policy and profit after tax (pat). this result indicates that dividend payout policy enhances firm performance in nigeria. while earning per share (eps) had a negative influence on dividend payout policy of firms in nigeria for the period the study covered. rheman and hussain(2017) tried to find out the key indicators that do impact the performance of the firm and are also incorporated in the dividend policy of the firm. ratios have been computed of all the companies that basically determine the dividend policy and then the correlation tests have been run to see the whether the results are significant or not. in the conclusion we have mentioned the variables that play a key role in determining the performance of the firms ojeme, mamid and ojo, (2015) examined empirically the implications of adopted dividend policies on the value of shareholders’ wealth and the extent to which dividend policy affects the market value of shares in quoted banks in nigeria. the paper focuses on the situation before and after the financial meltdown. correlation results of dividend paid in 2007-2010 and their corresponding market value showed that payment of dividend by quoted banks is relevant to their market value and the amount paid as dividend affects the value of their share. findings revealed the effects of policy decisions as it affects dividend payout and dividend retained for further growth on shareholders ‘wealth. 3. research methodology descriptive and longitudinal design was employed with a view to making statistical inferences on the effect leverage on corporate financial distress of manufacturing firms. a sampling frame of 15 quoted manufacturing firms was selected using random sampling techniques. the required cross-sectional data were sourced from annual reports of the firms and stock exchange factbook from 2008-2017. 3.1 analytical framework and empirical model specification this analysis is carried out within a panel data estimation framework. the preference of this estimation method is not only because it enables a cross-sectional time series analysis which usually makes provision for broader set of data points, but also because of its ability to control for heterogeneity and endogencity issues. hence panel data estimation allows for the control of copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 52 individual-specific effects usually unobservable which may be correlated with other explanatory variables included in the specification of the relationship between dependent and explanatory variables (hausman and taylor, 1981). the basic framework for panel data regression takes the form: 1 where: y = dependent variable d = independent variable o = intercept i = coefficient of the explanatory variable e = error term i = cross-sectional variable t = time series variable in the equation above, the heterogeneity or individual effect is iz which may represent a constant term and a set of observable and unobservable variables. when the individual effect iz , contains only a constant term, ols estimation provides a consistent and efficient estimates of the underlying parameters (kyereboah-coleman, 2007); hut if iz , is un-observable and correlated with itx , then emerges the need to use other estimation method because ols will give rise to biased and inconsistent estimates. similarly for endogeneity issues, it is generally assumed that the explanatory variables located on the right hand side of the regression equation are statistically independent of the disturbance it such that the disturbance term it is assumed to be uncorrelated with columns of’ the parameters itx and itz as stated in equation (1), and has zero mean and constant variance  2 (hausman and taylor, 198). if this assumption is violated, then ols estimation will yield biased estimates of the underlying parameters of  (mayston, 2002).hence, endogeneitv problems arise when the explanatory variables are correlated with the disturbance term it (mayston, 2002; hausman and taylor, 1981). in order to circumvent these problems, panel estimation techniques of fixed and random effects will be adopted in this study, in addition to the traditional pooled regression estimation. decisions will be made between the fixed and random effect models using the hausman specification test. the panel model for the study is specified base on the modified model of lucky (2018). model specification pooled regression specification  ititiii dpsdyrrddproeva 4332211  µ 2 fixed effect model specification itiiititiiit idumdpsdyrrdproeva 119 4332211    3 random effect model specification itititiiit idpsdyrrdproeva 143322111   4 where eva = economic value added of the quoted firms dpr = dividend payout rate rr = retention rate dy = dividend yield dps = dividend per share µ = stochastic or disturbance/error term. t = time dimension of the variables α 0 = constant or intercept. itiitit zxy   ,, copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 53 estimation techniques panel unit root test result the data were checked for the presence of unit root using the adf fisher chi-square andphiliperon fisher chi-square, which is based on the well-known dickey–fuller procedure. the null hypothesis for these tests is that there is a presence of nonstationary series against the alternative hypothesis of stationary series. the unit root test is important because non-stationary series regression estimation leads to spurious regression estimations with the wrong magnitude and sign of the parameter of the regressors, with wrongly inferred implications. the study assumes an absence of a time trend; hence it is tested for stationarity allowing for constant only. stationarity denotes the non existence of unit root. we shall therefore subject all the variables to unit root test using the augmented dickey fuller (adf) test specified in gujarati (2004) as follows. etyiyy t m i tt     1 1 121  5 where: ty = change time t 1 ty = the lagged value of the dependent variables t = white noise error term if in the above  =0, then we conclude that there is a unit root. otherwise there is no unit root, meaning that it is stationary. the choice of lag will be determined by akaike information criteria. decision rule t-adf (absolute value) > t-adf (critical value) : reject ho (otherwise accept h1) note that each variable will have its own adf test value. if the variables are stationary at level, then they are integrated of order zero i.e 1(0). the unit root problem earlier mentioned can be explained using the model: y= yt-1 + i 6 where yt is the variable in question; i is stochastic error term. equation (a) is termed first order regression because we regress the value y at time “t” on its value at time (t1). if the coefficient of yt-i is equal to 1, then we have a unit root problem (non stationary situation). this means that if the regression. y= yt-1 + i 7 is run and l is found to be equal to 1 then the variable yt has a unit root (random work in time series econometrics). if a time series has a unit root, the first difference of such time series are usually stationary. therefore to salve the problem, take the first difference of the time series. the first difference operation is shown in the following model: y= (l-1) yt-1 + i 8 yt-1 + i 9 (note:  =1-1= 0; where l =1; yt = yt yt-i) 10 integrated of order 1 or i(i) given that the original (random walk) series is differenced once and the differenced series becomes stationary, then the original series is said to be integrated of order i or i (1). integrated of order 2 or i (2) given that the original series is differenced twice before it becomes stationary (the first difference of the first difference), then the original series is integrated of order 2 or 1(2). therefore, given a time series has to be differenced q times before becoming stationary it said to be integrated of order q or i (q). hence, non-stationary time series are those that are integrated of order 1 or greater. the null hypothesis for the unit root is: ho: a = 1; the alternative hypothesis is hi: a <1. we shall test the stationarity of our data using the adf test. copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 54 granger causality test thus, granger causality test helps in adequate specification of model. in granger causality, test, the null hypothesis is that no causality between two variables. the null hypotheses is rejected if the probability of f* statistics given in the granger causality result is less than 0.05. the pair-wise granger causality test is mathematically expressed as: 111 1 11 1 uxyxy t x n i t y n i ot        11 and 1 v 1y xxdp1 n 1i 1yt y 1 dp n 1i o dp t x        12 where xt and yt are the variables to be tested white ut and vt are the white noise disturbance terms. the null hypothesis 011  yy dp , for all i’s is tested against the alternative hypothesis 01 x and .01 ydp if the co-efficient of x 1 are statistically significant but that of ydp1 are not, then x causes y. if the reverse is true then y causes x. however, where both co-efficient of x 1 and ydp1 are significant then causality is bi –directional 4. presentation of results and discussion of findings the following tables explain the dynamic relationship between dividend decision and economic value added of the selected manufacturing firms in nigeria. table i: test of appropriate model redundant fixed effects tests effects test statistic d.f. prob. cross-section f 2.698090 (14,71) 0.0032 cross-section chi-square 38.392708 14 0.0005 correlated random effects hausman test test summary chi-sq. statistic chi-sq. d.f. prob. cross-section random 11.031481 4 0.0050 source: extract from e-view 9.0, 2019 our study used the likelihood ratio test to choose between the pooled effect model and the fixed effects model as how in table i above. the fixed effects model is better than pooled effect that the results of the likelihood ratio test were significant (pvalue< 0.0000 for the three models. this result means that we reject the pooled effect model and choose the fixed effects model for this study. to make a choice between the fixed effects model and the random effects model, we utilized the hausman test as shown in the table above. the hypotheses of the test are as follows: the fixed effects model is more appropriate than the random effects model. as the result found that the results of this test were significant (p-value = 0.0241). hence, we reject the null hypothesis and conclude that the fixed effects model is the most appropriate of the three models. table ii: presentation of pooled regression model variable coefficient std. error t-statistic prob. dy -0.149415 0.112713 -1.325624 0.1885 dps 0.207417 0.141753 1.463223 0.1471 dpr 0.110271 0.130836 0.842817 0.4017 rr 0.106482 0.129402 0.822877 0.4129 c -0.830492 12.99663 -0.063901 0.9492 r-squared 0.057177 mean dependent var 10.19322 adjusted r-squared 0.012809 s.d. dependent var 1.292761 s.e. of regression 1.284455 akaike info criterion 3.392498 copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 55 sum squared resid 140.2350 schwarz criterion 3.531377 log likelihood -147.6624 hannan-quinn criter. 3.448502 f-statistic 1.288701 durbin-watson stat 0.940905 prob(f-statistic) 0.280916 source: extract from e-view 9.0, 2019 table iii: presentation of fixed regression model variable coefficient std. error t-statistic prob. dy -0.891660 0.162539 -2.179168 0.0003 dps 0.154671 0.151752 2.019236 0.0006 dpr 0.034566 0.126994 0.272183 0.7863 rr 0.831367 0.125502 2.249929 0.0034 c 7.158401 12.56055 0.569911 0.0000 effects specification cross-section fixed (dummy variables) r-squared 0.784588 mean dependent var 10.19322 adjusted r-squared 0.528568 s.d. dependent var 1.292761 s.e. of regression 1.135448 akaike info criterion 3.277024 sum squared resid 91.53618 schwarz criterion 3.804762 log likelihood -128.4661 hannan-quinn criter. 3.489839 f-statistic 2.464988 durbin-watson stat 1.516951 prob(f-statistic) 0.003743 table iv: presentation of random regression model variable coefficient std. error t-statistic prob. dy -0.171352 0.133486 -1.283671 0.2027 dps 0.174799 0.142437 1.227208 0.2231 dpr 0.058288 0.123147 0.473324 0.6372 rr 0.055083 0.121769 0.452358 0.6522 c 4.594668 12.21246 0.376228 0.7077 effects specification s.d. rho cross-section random 0.728365 0.2915 idiosyncratic random 1.135448 0.7085 weighted statistics r-squared 0.443535 mean dependent var 5.472827 adjusted r-squared 0.301475 s.d. dependent var 1.114623 s.e. of regression 1.115445 sum squared resid 105.7584 f-statistic 0.967237 durbin-watson stat 1.237294 prob(f-statistic) 0.429844 unweighted statistics r-squared 0.454425 mean dependent var 10.19322 sum squared resid 140.6444 durbin-watson stat 0.931586 source: extract from e-view 9.0, 2019 table v: cross-section random effects test comparisons variable fixed random var(diff.) prob. dy -0.191660 -0.171352 0.008600 0.8267 dps 0.154671 0.174799 0.002741 0.7006 dpr 0.034566 0.058288 0.000962 0.4444 rr 0.031367 0.055083 0.000923 0.4350 source: extract from e-view 9.0, 2019 copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 56 table vi: presentation of causality test null hypothesis: obs f-statistic prob. dy does not granger cause eva 60 0.32035 0.7272 evadoes not granger cause dy 0.15716 0.8550 dps does not granger cause eva 60 0.32299 0.7253 eva does not granger cause dps 0.21823 0.8046 dpr does not granger cause eva 60 1.17205 0.3173 eva does not granger cause dpr 1.49205 0.2339 rr does not granger cause eva 60 0.86169 0.4281 eva does not granger cause rr 1.52567 0.2265 source: extract from e-view 9.0, 2019 table vii: test for stationarity variables adf fisher chi-square/ pp fisher chi-square statistics probability remark decision eva pp fisher chi-square 73.4606 0.0000 stationary reject h0 pp choi z-stat -2.69812 0.0035 stationary reject h0 rr pp fisher chi-square 74.3608 0.0000 stationary reject h0 pp choi z-stat -4.04781 0.0000 stationary reject h0 dy pp fisher chi-square 60.9287 0.0007 stationary reject h0 pp choi z-stat -2.84488 0.0022 stationary reject h0 dps pp fisher chi-square 62.1951 0.0005 stationary reject h0 pp choi z-stat -3.00666 0.0013 stationary reject h0 dpr pp fisher chi-square 74.9173 0.0000 stationary reject h0 pp choi z-stat -4.11845 0.0000 stationary reject h0 source: extract from e-view 9.0 5. discussion and analysis of results dividend decisions have long been the most controversial issue in corporate finance among scholars (olowe, 2011). the pattern of corporate dividend decisions not only varies overtime but also affect by internal and external factors of the firm. the issue of dividend decisions has long been one of the most controversial issues among scholars in the field of corporate finance. from the opinion of gordon’s, the dividend policy is relevant while from the opinion of miller and modigliani dividend policy is irrelevant under specific assumptions that the market is perfect. the question that boarder most scholars is that can there be any perfect market that can make dividend policy irrelevant? for instance, the financial market of the developing countries specifically nigeria is known for its imperfection because it is characterized with insider dealings where stock brokers are also floor dealers (onoh, 2002). this justifies the agency theory as noted by jesen (1979).the a-priori expectation of the result is that the independent variables are expected to have a positive impact on shareholders’ return of the quoted commercial banks. the results of the regression model found that the independent variables can explain 5 percent variation on economic value added from the pooled regression results, 75 percent variation from the fixed effect results and 44 percent from the random effect (table ii, iii and iv) results from model found that dividend yield have negative effect on economic value added while dividend per share, dividend payout ratio and retention ratio has positive and significant effect on economic value added of the quoted manufacturing firms. the positive impact of retention ratio and dividend per share confirm the a-priori expectation of the result and justifies the objective of constant dividend policies. retention ratio is a source of internal investment. increase in retention ratio makes the company to be less levered which means that significant proportion of corporate investment is financed by equity capital. this makes corporate organizations not to face leverage risk. it also makes the organization to grow as noted by pandey (2005). the positive effect of the variables confirm the findings of agyei and marfoyiadom (2011) whose results found positive relationship between dividend policy and performance, uwuigbe, jafaru and ajayi (2012) whose result shows a significant and positive association between the performance of firms and the dividend payout. merekefu and ouma (2012) whose findings revealed positive strong relationship between net profit after tax and dividends and the findings of timothy and peter (2012) findings indicated that dividend payout was a major factor affecting firm profitability measured by net profit after tax. the negative impact of dividend yield is contrary to the expectation of the results and can be traced to monetary policy shocks that affect the performance of the manufacturing firms over the period. the negative impact is contrary to the findings of gul (2012) who found that the market value of companies that pay dividends is well above the book value as compared to companies that do not pay dividends and the findings of salehnezhad (2013) who found a positive relationship between financial performance (stock returns) and dividend policy. however, evidence from the cross-sectional copyright © cc-by-nc 2019, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 5, no. 2; 2019 57 comparison found that variables are statistically not significant (table v) which implies that there statistical differences between fixed and random effect models. the granger causality test found that there is no causality between the variables, this findings is contrary to the expectation of the results (table vi) and can be traced to poor performance of the firms over the periods covered in this study. the variables are stationary from the results of the stationarity test (table vii). 6. conclusion the objective of this study was to investigate the effect of dividend decision on economic value added quoted manufacturing in nigerian. the study made use of secondary data from financial statement of the quoted manufacturing firms. the hausman test validated the use of fixed effect model. from the results the study conclude that dividend yield have negative and significant effect on the economic value added of the manufacturing firms, this implies, variation on dividend yield of the firms will significantly reduce economic valued added. dividend per share have positive and significant effect on the economic value added of the manufacturing firms, this implies, variation on dividend per share of the firms will significantly increase economic valued added. dividend payout rate have positive but insignificant effect on the economic value added of the manufacturing firms, this implies, variation on dividend payout rate of the firms will not significantly affect economic valued added. retention rate have positive and significant effect on the economic value added of the manufacturing firms, this implies, variation on retention rate of the firms will significantly increase economic valued added. 7. recommendation from the findings, the study made the following recommendations:  the cross sectional data indicates that the manufacturing dividend decision was a constant dividend decision, therefore we recommend that constant dividend decision should be maintained among the quoted manufacturing firms.  retention forms should be properly invested and the investment environment should be well managed to increase shareholders return through the dividend decision channel.  the management should devise measures of managing shareholders to achieve shareholders wealth maximization through dividend policy and the operational environment of the quoted manufacturing firms should be integrated with the companies’ operating objectives to achieve the objective of the shareholders.  the negative effect of the independent variables could be traced to poor corporate governance and poor optimal capital structure, therefore we recommend that the operating leverage and the capital structure of the firms should be examined or revisited to enhance profitability performance of the quoted firms and corporate governance should be ensured in the management of the firms to enhance the profitability performance that will affect positively the dividend policy. references agyei, s. k., & marfo, y. e. 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(2006).dividend payout and future earnings growth. financial analysts journal, 62(3), 58 – 69. copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. this is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). american economic & social review 11(1) (2023), 1-7 1 economic & social review aesr vol 11 no 1 (2023) p-issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 available online at https://www.cribfb.com journal homepage: https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr published by cribfb, usa determinants of gdp per capita in bangladesh: an empirical study md. idris ali (a) md. faisal-e-alam (b)1 (a) assistant professor (statistics), department of business studies, north bengal international university, rajshahi, bangladesh; e-mail: idris.stat@gmail.com (b) assistant professor, department of management studies, begum rokeya university, rangpur, bangladesh; e-mail: faisal14.ru@gmail.com a r t i c l e i n f o article history: received: 8th august 2023 revised: 26th october 2023 accepted: 27th october 2023 published: 28th october 2023 keywords: gdp per capita, inflation rate, exchange rate, total reserves (includes gold and usd) jel classification codes: e31, f31, o47 a b s t r a c t when making cross-country comparisons regarding the well-being and economic conditions of a population, gdp per capita is the most commonly used indicator. hence, various economic indicators can affect gdp per capita. this study investigates the impact of inflation, exchange rate, and total reserves (including gold and usd) on gdp per capita in bangladesh. the study employs a quantitative approach and follows a longitudinal research design. time series data from 2012 to 2021 is collected using a stratified random sampling technique from the world development indicators provided by the world bank. a range of statistical tests, such as normality test, multivariate outlier analysis (mahalanobis distance), multicollinearity assessment (tolerance and vif), goodness-of-fit (gof) test, anova test, and multiple regression analysis, were performed using spss v.22. the results reveal that exchange rate has a significant influence on gdp per capita, making it crucial factor for economic development, resilience, and export competitiveness. total reserves were found to have minimal relation with gdp per capita. in contrast, inflation rate, although adversely impacting gdp per capita, remains important for maintaining overall economic stability. thus, the findings of this study suggest that effective currency management is paramount for economic development. © 2023 by the authors. licensee cribfb, usa. this article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution (cc by) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). introduction gross domestic product (gdp) measures a nation's total monetary value of goods and services produced within its borders in a specific time frame. bangladesh has been experiencing economic growth, and its per capita income has been steadily increasing over the years (ferdous et al., 2019). the gdp per capita serves as a key indicator of a country's economic health, providing insight into the average income and living standards of its citizens (dynan & sheiner, 2018). gdp per capita has a greater impact on cross-country happiness variation than the human development index (dipietro & anoruo, 2006). it is a metric commonly utilized by scholars and policymakers to formulate strategies in both the public and private sectors (voumik & smrity, 2020). for a developing nation like bangladesh, this metric takes on even greater significance, as it reflects the progress and prosperity of a population of over 160 million people (huque & khan, 2017). numerous factors influence gdp per capita (formánek, 2019), among which inflation, exchange rate (semuel & nurina, 2014), and total reserves play pivotal roles. bangladesh is a democratic country, but the notion that all democratic countries have a high gdp per capita is not universally true. for instance, while qatar ranks high in gdp per capita, it does not show a strong democratic system (ilter, 2017). the economy of bangladesh, primarily based on agriculture (islam et al., 2022), has evolved into a more diversified landscape with significant contributions from the manufacturing and service sectors (raihan & khan, 2020). this transformation has been characterized by impressive gdp growth rates and increased foreign direct investment (abubakar, 2023). despite these positive developments, bangladesh faces several economic challenges (sawada et al., 2018). like 1corresponding author: orcid id: 0000-0002-7341-7945 © 2023 by the authors. hosting by cribfb. peer review under responsibility of cribfb, usa. https://doi.org/10.46281/aesr.v11i1.2106 to cite this article: ali, m. i., & faisal-e-alam, m. (2023). determinants of gdp per capita in bangladesh: an empirical study. american economic & social review, 11(1), 1-7. https://doi.org/10.46281/aesr.v11i1.2106 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) https://doi.org/10.46281/aesr.v11i1.2106 https://orcid.org/0009-0000-4771-4738 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7341-7945 ali & faisal-e-alam, american economic & social review 11(1) (2023), 1-7 2 recurring inflation concerns, exchange rate volatility, the need to maintain adequate reserves, and the necessity for wellinformed policy decisions to address these issues and promote sustainable economic growth. the quest to understand how these critical economic factors interrelate and influence a nation's gdp per capita has fueled extensive academic investigation. therefore, this study aims to explore the impact of these economic variables on gdp per capita in bangladesh. gdp per capita is a critical tool for the government to form tax policies, social welfare programs, and infrastructure development initiatives (teshome, 2006). also, the factors of human development index (hdi), such as life expectancy, educational attainment, and decent living standards within a country, are interconnected with its economic growth, which is evident in gdp per capita (elistia & syahzuni, 2018). understanding how inflation, exchange rate, and total reserves affect gdp per capita in bangladesh can inform decisions on monetary and fiscal measures to control inflation, stabilize exchange rate, and maintain adequate reserves. moreover, this study may aid investors and businesses in making informed choices in a constantly evolving economic environment. furthermore, it can contribute to the academic literature by adding knowledge about the specific context of bangladesh, which may also have implications for other emerging economies. the remaining part of this study first covers a detailed literature review, highlighting existing studies in the field. then, the materials and methods section is explained. the results section presents the study's findings, while the discussions section determines their implications for bangladesh's economic development and policymaking. finally, the conclusions section contains the key findings, limitations, and potential future research directions in this context. literature review in the evolving realm of economic theory and practice, the effect of economic factors on gdp per capita stands as a focal point of inquiry, as shown distinctly in the following reviews. a long-standing debate in economics revolves around determining whether changes in inflation are primarily driven by demand-side factors resulting from increased economic activity or by supply-side factors arising from increased costs. milton friedman, in 1963, penned the famous phrase, "inflation is, in every case, a monetary phenomenon." in simple terms, inflation can have both positive and negative impacts on gdp per capita. when inflation is moderate and controlled, it can stimulate economic growth by encouraging spending and investment. however, if inflation becomes too high and unpredictable, it can erode the purchasing power of individuals and lead to economic instability. the inflation rate and gdp per capita growth rate are co-integrated (feyera, 2015). but the study did not provide specific finding related to the impact of inflation rate on gdp per capita. barro (1995) found that higher inflation rates are associated with lower growth rates of real per capita gdp and a decrease in the ratio of investment to gdp. gillman & kejak (2011) argued that inflation negatively affects output growth, investment, and the real interest rate in the long run. the interaction between inflation rate and gdp per capita is a complex area of study that seeks to comprehend how changes in prices impact the financial security of a nation's people and the strength of its economy. in the domain of open economies, the optimal choice of an exchange rate system has also been a subject of debate. modern analysts have argued in favor of flexible exchange rate over fixed ones, citing that flexible rate offers better protection against foreign economic shocks (islam & biswas, 2009). however, the impact of the exchange rate on gdp per capita refers to how changes in a country's exchange rate can affect its gdp per capita. the exchange rate is the rate at which one country's currency can be exchanged for another, and it plays a vital role in international trade of a nation. exchange rate can impact a country's gdp per capita through its effect on trade (broda, 2004). a strong domestic currency can make a country's exports more expensive, potentially reducing exports and affecting economic growth. conversely, a weaker currency can boost exports (morrissey, 2005) and contribute to gdp per capita growth. a weaker currency may also make imports more expensive, encouraging domestic consumers to purchase locally produced goods, which can further stimulate economic growth. however, it can also lead to inflation if not managed effectively (singh, 2013). exchange rate significantly impacts a nation's trade balance, which, in turn, has a profound effect on both exports and imports, ultimately shaping a country's economic progress. a nation's total reserves have a significant impact on its economic standing, and the international financial market assesses the nation's creditworthiness and the effectiveness of its monetary policies based on these reserves (salan et al., 2023). adequate total reserves can help stabilize a country's exchange rate. a stable exchange rate, in turn, provides a conducive environment for international trade and investment. a stable currency encourages foreign investors to invest in the country, which can lead to economic growth. reserve accumulation depreciates the real exchange rate and attracts fdi, which endogenously promotes productivity growth (matsumoto, 2018). moreover, reserve accumulation is positively associated with domestic private investment in the long-run (mahraddika, 2019). one study found a positive correlation between the level of reserves and gdp per capita, suggesting that higher level of reserves can contribute to economic growth (bentum-ennin, 2014). the demand for international reserves by many developing countries has been dominated by precautionary motives against possible domestic and external uncertainties, crises, sudden stops in capital inflows, and macroeconomic fragilities (ayhan & turgutlu, 2015). in light of these findings, maintaining the total reserves is not only essential for economic stability but also plays an essential role in driving economic advancement. this section reviews the effect of each individual independent variable on the dependent variable as a predictor of gdp per capita in bangladesh. it is also worth noting that no previous study has observed these relationships simultaneously. consequently, this study formulates the following three alternative hypotheses to determine and establish the aforesaid relationships: h1: there is a significant positive connection between inflation rate and gdp per capita. h2: exchange rate has a significant impact on gdp per capita. h3: total reserves, including gold and usd, are positively correlated with gdp per capita. ali & faisal-e-alam, american economic & social review 11(1) (2023), 1-7 3 materials and methods research approach and design this study employs a quantitative research approach. a quantitative approach is chosen for its ability to systematically analyze numerical data and draw statistical inferences about the relationships between variables. the study design also incorporates the longitudinal framework. data collection this study followed a stratified random sampling method to select the dataset. the dataset spans a ten-year period from 2012 to 2021. it comprises economic variables sourced from the world development indicators, a reliable data repository provided by the world bank. the selected variables include inflation rate (ir), exchange rate (er), total reserves including gold and current usd (tr), and gdp per capita (gdpc). data analysis tools in the data analysis phase, a series of statistical tests were applied to the dataset using spss v.22. a normal probability plot (p-p plot) was used to evaluate the normal distribution of data, a critical assumption for parametric tests. multivariate outlier detection through mahalanobis distance assessed the presence of multivariate outliers, a prerequisite for addressing potential anomalies in the dataset. a multicollinearity test with tolerance and variance inflation factor (vif) determined the independence of predictor variables. prior to presenting the multiple linear regression model, a goodness-of-fit (gof) test and anova test were conducted. these critical components offered a complete view of the model's performance and statistical significance. the core analysis involved multiple linear regression, which modeled the relationship between independent variables (ir, er, and tr) and the dependent variable (gdpc). this analysis provided coefficients with statistical validity for each predictor variable. the outcomes of these statistical tests are showcased in graphical and tabular formats. inclusion and exclusion criteria data collected from 2012 to 2021 was included to capture a substantial time frame. selected variables encompassed ir, er, tr, and gdpc due to their economic significance. however, variables unrelated to economic factors, such as social or demographic factors, were also excluded to keep the study centered on economic aspects. ethical considerations ethical issues in this study primarily involve data collection and usage. the researchers have adhered to ethical guidelines by sourcing data from reliable and reputable sources, such as the world development indicators provided by the world bank. privacy and confidentiality have been maintained, as no individual-level data or personally identifiable information was used. results normal probability plot test the normal probability plot displaying a fairly straight diagonal line is a strong indicator that the sample data follows a normal distribution. this means the data is symmetrically distributed around the mean, providing a solid foundation for conducting analyses and making valid statistical inferences that rely on the assumption of normality (see figure 1). figure 1. normal probability plot of regression standardized residual source: authors’ calculation multivariate outlier detection mahalanobis distance is a common metric for detecting multivariate outliers. for this study, the maximum mahalanobis distance observed is 5.879. this value is less than the critical value of 16.27 for mahalanobis distance with 3 degrees of freedom (df), as stated by mahalanobis (1936). the maximum distance is lower than the critical value suggests that the data ali & faisal-e-alam, american economic & social review 11(1) (2023), 1-7 4 points do not uncover extreme multivariate relationships. as a result, the dataset can be considered relatively free from multivariate outliers based on this analysis (see table 1). table 1. residuals statistics for outlier detection by using mahalanobis distance minimum maximum mean std. deviation n mahal. distance 0.881 5.879 2.700 1.691 10 source: authors’ calculation multicollinearity test table 2 provides collinearity statistics, specifically tolerance and variance inflation factor (vif), which are crucial indicators for assessing multicollinearity in the dataset. notably, the calculated values of tolerance for all the independent variables are less than 1.00, and the corresponding vif values are also less than 10. this outcome implies that there are no significant issues with multicollinearity. tolerance values below 1.00 suggest that each independent variable contributes to the regression model independently, while vif values under 10 further affirm that there is no excessive redundancy or correlation among the predictors (chatterjee & hadi, 2006). these findings provide assurance that the parameter estimates of regression model are reliable. in light of the absence of multicollinearity concerns, the dataset is well-suited for multivariate analysis. table 2. analysis of multicollinearity using variance inflation factor (vif) statistics tolerance vif inflation rate .441 2.267 exchange rate (in usd) .544 1.837 total reserves (including gold and current usd) .458 2.186 source: authors’ calculation goodness-of-fit (gof) test the model summary table shows an overview of the regression model's performance. the coefficient of determination, rsquared (r²), stands at 0.965, indicating that approximately 96.50% of the variance in gdp per capita is accounted for by the included independent variables, namely inflation rate, exchange rate, and total reserves (including gold and current usd). this high r-squared value underscores the strong explanatory power of the model, signifying that the selected predictors collectively provide an excellent fit for the variation in gdp per capita. additionally, the adjusted r-square value, which adjusts for the number of predictors, remains notably high at 0.947, further confirming the model's goodness of fit. with a low standard error of the estimate, which is 129.188, the model demonstrates a strong ability to predict gdp per capita (see table 3). table 3. model summary r r square adjusted r square std. error of the estimate 0.982 0.965 0.947 129.188 source: authors’ calculation anova test on the basis of the results of the f test below, the value of the calculated f statistic is 55.111, with a probability (f-statistic) of 0.000, which is smaller than the significance level set at 5%. therefore, the regression model, as a whole is deemed to be statistically significant. this highly significant f statistic accentuates the model's effectiveness in explaining variation in the dependent variable and advocates the importance of the included independent variables in enhancing our understanding of the phenomenon under investigation. consequently, the regression model can be considered a powerful tool for making inferences related to the specific analysis (see table 4). table 4. results of anova model sum of squares df mean square f sig regression 2759336.739 3 919778.913 55.111 0.000 residual 100136.861 6 16689.477 total 2859473.600 9 source: authors’ calculation multiple regression analysis in the regression equation, each independent variable holds a distinct role in explaining the variation in gdp per capita. each coefficient represents the estimated change in the dependent variable for a one-unit change in the corresponding independent variable, while keeping all other variables constant. for the variable ir, the coefficient is negative, at -74.851, and its associated p-value is 0.455, which is greater than the significance level of 0.05. this finding suggests that ir has a negative relationship with gdp per capita, which is statistically insignificant. conversely, er shows statistical significance at the 5% level. this indicates the substantial impact of er on gdp per capita. the coefficient is extremely small for tr ali & faisal-e-alam, american economic & social review 11(1) (2023), 1-7 5 (b = 0.00000003824, p<0.05), specifying that this particular independent variable has a very low impact on the dependent variable (see table 5). table 5. coefficients of multiple linear regression model unstandardized coefficients b std. error t p (constant) -3382.721 1810.742 -1.868 .111 ir -74.851 93.756 -.798 .455 er 53.333 18.926 2.818 .030 tr 3.824e-8 .000 6.228 .001 source: authors’ calculation discussions the study findings hold important implications for policymakers and stakeholders in bangladesh. the first hypothesis is not supported by the outcomes of this study. close attention to inflation patterns in bangladesh is required (hassan & shakur, 2017). while this variable exhibits a negative connection with gdp per capita, it remains important to control inflation for managing economic fluctuations and achieving price stability. several studies have also confirmed that inflation and gdp per capita are inversely related (ilter, 2017; ayyoub et al., 2011). the second hypothesis is accepted, validating a significant impact of the exchange rate on gdp per capita (salan et al., 2023). effective management of exchange rate also enhances a country's resilience against global economic challenges, such as currency crises or economic recessions. it provides a buffer that can be used to stabilize the economy during periods of uncertainty, protecting businesses and jobs. in addition to these benefits, a favorable exchange rate can boost the competitiveness of exports, especially in labor-intensive industries like textiles and garments in bangladesh. this can generate an expansion of the export sector, creating a positive trade balance and contributing to gdp per capita growth. such growth can also enhance the livelihoods of workers in those industries and potentially reduce income inequality. further, a fixed exchange rate sends positive signals to foreign investors. this can result in increased foreign direct investment (fdi) inflows (hossain, 2008), which are necessary for economic growth. attracting foreign capital through fdi can lead to the creation of new industries, technological advancements, and employment opportunities, also driving gdp per capita growth (shourave, 2020). the third hypothesis finds support in the presence of a notably weaker connection between total reserves and gdp per capita. although, accumulating reserves does not necessarily represent a prerequisite or guarantee of economic growth (polterovich & popov, 2003). because, total reserves are more related to a nation's capacity to manage its external financial obligations and maintain confidence in its currency (qian & steiner, 2017). policymakers can use this information to create more effective economic strategies for sustainable improvements in gdp per capita, ultimately enhancing citizens' quality of life. conclusions this study specifically identifies the role of exchange rate on variation in gdp per capita in case of bangladesh. the results also illustrate a substantially weak link between total reserves and gdp per capita as well as an adverse link between inflation and gdp per capita. the considerations from this study illuminate the path to economic growth, stressing the significance of currency management, sensible investments, and the need for inflation control. further, developing countries like bangladesh should increase their development budgets while reducing non-developmental expenditures, as this strategy plays a significant role in controlling inflation, reducing unemployment, and enhancing economic growth. this study not only serves as a beacon for bangladesh's policymakers but also contributes to the comprehensive dialogue on economic development. however, this study primarily employs economic factors, potentially overlooking social and demographic factors, such as transparency ranking and population growth that can significantly influence gdp per capita. further, the exclusion of other relevant macroeconomic indicators, including the unemployment rate, gross national product, purchasing power parity, and poverty level, may restrict the breadth of analysis. to address these limitations, future research efforts could explore a wider range of variables that affect economic growth. additionally, comparative studies involving multiple countries or regions could provide a broader perspective on the relationships observed here, further advancing our knowledge of economic development processes. author contributions: “conceptualization, m.i.a. and m.f.a.; methodology, m.i.a. and m.f.a.; software, m.i.a. and m.f.a.; validation, m.i.a. and m.f.a.; formal analysis, m.i.a. and m.f.a.; investigation, m.i.a. and m.f.a.; resources, m.i.a. and m.f.a.; data curation, m.i.a. and m.f.a.; writing – original draft preparation, m.i.a. and m.f.a.; writing – review & editing, m.i.a. and m.f.a.; visualization, m.i.a. and m.f.a.; supervision, m.i.a. and m.f.a.; project administration, m.i.a. and m.f.a.; funding acquisition, m.i.a. and m.f.a. authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript. institutional review board statement: ethical review and approval were waived for this study, due to that the research does not deal with vulnerable groups or sensitive issues. funding: the authors received no direct funding for this research. acknowledgement: not applicable. informed consent statement: informed consent was obtained from all subjects involved in the study. data availability statement: the data presented in 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(2020). forecasting gdp per capita in bangladesh: using arima model. european journal of business and management research, 5(5), 1-5. https://doi.org/10.24018/ejbmr.2020.5.5.533 publisher’s note: cribfb stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. © 2023 by the authors. licensee cribfb, usa. this article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution (cc by) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). american economic & social review (p-issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277) by cribfb is licensed under a creative commons attribution 4.0 international license. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr american economic & social review; vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 issn 2576-1269e-issn 2576-1277 published by centre for research on islamic banking & finance and business, usa 39 e-government development & digital economy: relationship mohammad gias uddin phd student department of economics and business university tunku abdul rahman, malaysia mail: mdgias89@gmail.com mohin uddin lecturer department of business administration international islamic university chittagong, bangladesh e-mail: mohin1uddin2@yahoo.com abstract the main objective of this examine is to explore the elements that influencing the digital economic system and e-government courting. commonly, the examiner is to analyze the impact of demographic variables are gender and schooling stage; as well as digital infrastructure, virtual readiness, virtual content material, and offerings on the digital economy in malaysia. a minimum overall of 384 questionnaires could be disbursed to the goal respondents to collect the sample information. four hypotheses helping to the developed to survey the particular targets of the examiner. demographic variables expected to have a high-quality enormous relationship with the virtual financial system. last however now not least, the findings of the look at shall offer statistics to e-government to understand what factors will affect the virtual economic system. except, it shall additionally provide useful information for e-government to higher fit their people’s needs. the elements decided to boom high-quality dating among egovernment and virtual financial system in malaysia. keywords: digital economy, e-government, digital infrastructure, digital readiness, digital content, and services. 1. introduction world over past years economic going to traditional base (e.g: industrial, agriculture) but recent few years world move to digital economy which base on digital technology (eiu) economist intelligence unit 2010, agnew 1999 & tapscott 1999. so recently everywhere in the world technology development and people involved with social media (communication with social media), ebusiness, the transformation has changed to e-government (government offering e-government service for the citizen; karen mossberger et al 2008; weill & woerner, 2013). digital economic its helps to economic growth research paper shows that (brynjolfsson & mcafee, 2011). alongside the advancement of digitalization, an amazing majority of governments have applied e-authorities tasks, even though the volume and scale in their implementation very substantially amongst nations (united international locations, 2012; nograšek and vintar, 2014). the sector financial institution (2008) defines e-authorities as using facts technology to improve business tactics and carrier delivery through authorities’ departments and different authorities entities. dunleavy et al. (2006, p. 467) describe this fashion as “virtual-generation governance”, that is perceived with the aid of many researchers as critical for the emergence of post-new public control governance (e.g. cordella and iannacci, 2010; margetts and dunleavy, 2013). the e-government fashion “offers a possibly unique opportunity to create self-maintaining change, in a vast variety of intently connected technological, organizational, cultural, and social consequences” (dunleavy et al., 2006, p. 467). in this regard, the character and the consequences of e-government come to be multidimensional and complex. but, to date empirical research supported through sound and hooked up theories to recognize the technique and the transformative effects of digitalization on public management is sparse (bekkers and homburg, 2007; andersen et al., 2010). the literature review of heeks and bailur (2007) and yildiz (2007) find that most of the e-authorities’ fashions within the literature have no strong theoretical grounding. also, shareef et al. (2011) locate that modern research tends to deal with special views on this complicated phenomenon in a scattered fashion. mailto:mdgias89@gmail.com copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 40 1.1 background of study this look at seeks to cope with those weaknesses in the existing literature in three methods. first, it applies a multidimensional method to apprehend and seize the multifaceted courting among e-government development and the digital economic system. in this regard, it elaborates on the idea via zhao et al. (2014a) that contextual factors including existing social, political, monetary, demographic, it, cultural factors have interaction and play a great function inside the international procedure of e-authorities adoption and virtual development. second, the examination is grounded on sound and well-set-up theories, appreciably the generation popularity version (tam) (davis, 1989) and the generation enactment framework of fountain (2001, 2005). the former makes a specialty of expertise user adoption behavior while the latter tries to capture the effect of contextual technological, social, institutional, and political elements on generation adoption. in doing so, this examine contributes to more accurate and comprehensive know-how of the relationship between the two. third, this look is empirical, engaging in a global look at of sixtyseven countries using authentic international records units which include the un’s e-authorities survey and the economist intelligence unit’s (eiu) digital economy rankings. for this reason, the results of the study will have wider applications for policymakers on the national stage. therefore, it causes studies gaps for this study inside the following: research gap 1: lack of the systematical study of the conceptual framework research gap 2: lack of the empirical study of the factors e-government development and digital economy hence, the goal of this research is to evaluate and validate the determinants of e-authorities improvement and digital financial system. 1.1.1 definitions of e-government e-government is using statistics and communique technologies (icts) to enhance the sports of public quarter organization. some definitions restrict e-government to internet-enabled programs best, or simplest to interactions among authorities and outside agencies. 1.1.2 what is the digital economy the digital economy refers to a financial system that is based totally on virtual computing technology. the virtual economy is likewise once in a while referred to as the net economic system, the brand-new economy, or the internet financial system. an increasing number of, the "virtual economy" is intertwined with the conventional economic system creating a clean delineation harder. 1.2 problem statement the relationship between e-power systems and virtual finance. as expected, there may be a very strong correlation between the composite index for electronic authority development and the overall score for the virtual economy. to further test the relationship between the 2, we run sem. the advantage of using sem is that it takes account size into account to determine the relationship between a higher e-authority and the virtual economy. the spss software is used to generate estimates of maximum probability parameters. the healthy index is based entirely on strong changes in focus. the effect is to confirm that there may be a strong correlation between e-government and the digital economy. all the indices show a valid and healthy information model. based on the results of each evaluation, we can confidently conclude that e-government contributes to and undermines the development of the virtual economy. 1.3 research question ▪ what are the elements that impact dating between e-government service development and the digital economy system? 1.4 research objective ▪ to determine the elements impact relationship among e-government service development and the digital economy system 1.5 significance of the study current years have witnessed speedy developments in e-government further to e-employer inside countries across the world. although each e-authorities and e-industrial organization contribute in the direction of national monetary usual overall performance. these research findings will demonstrate the huge and intertwined roles of e-authorities and e-industrial enterprise in improving the countrywide financial performance. a good way to enhancing countrywide monetary income, this research indicates that policymakers must recall measures to beautify the development of e-government and e-company collectively. copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 41 1.6 organization of study the next part of this thesis discusses the basic concepts of this research theory, which helps to formulate your hypotheses and the research framework. the next section explains the methodology and presents the statistical results, while the next section discusses the results and their implications for the development of policies and theories. therefore, the limitations of the research and the suggestions for future research are analyzed before considering the main contributions of the study 2. literature review 2.1 introduction according to an economist intelligence unit (eiu) ()2010, agnew 1999, and tapscott 1999, in the world economy was used by the traditional basis in the past years like industrial organization, agriculture, farming, and so on. but now, these traditional economy turns into the digital economy by the use of digital technology and providing ict benefits of the customer, government, and businesses of a country. allowing by the government of many countries, the digital economy helps to support the people and society of the countries. digital economy helps to digitalize the trade, market, and economics through technology. 2.2 definition of digital economy the definition of brynjolfsson and mcafee, 2011, shows that the digital economy plays a role to increase the economic growth of a country. by the digital economy, the government can establish e-government which increases the market value of products and services and helps to measure the gross domestic product or gdp of a country. also helps to measure gross national product or gnp to increase foreign earning by the technology. tapscott (1996), describes the digital economy as the new framework which is created with the help of human and their intelligence. there are some characters associated with the digital economy that our knowledge of people, digitalization on activities, internetworking with the activities, innovative assets, and so on. all of these characters help the world to make more digital than the traditional industrial economy. he also added that the contemporary position regarding connectedness with the various concepts is created with the help of the digital economy. from oecd broadband statistics, the digital economy is the more digital and established network. it is using in various workplace to reduce problems, increasing skills and opportunities for individuals and groups, and make them successful in different fields. according to oecd, about 22 of percent people are related to ict activities for establishing themself. digital economy increases opportunities and options for individuals, consumers, workers, the government of one country. 2.3 definition of e-government dunleavy et al. (2006), he establishes a new digital era government (deg) defines that this deg is used for the societal, economic, technological development in many countries. by deg a government can provide better services, quick delivery of products to the clients, create digitalization for the public services. for using the digital era government, they can use cloud computing, social web, and so many apps. some researchers from different countries use to post contemporary civil administration government. 2.4 definition of digital infrastructure by davis 1989, well-established theories were made, most significantly use the technology acceptance model (tam). according to davis, he includes how these models accept by the people and use to establish the activities of users. many factors used by them how to use when to use the model to make and involve the economic government. perceive use fullness and perceive comfort about consume is the main task and circumstances toward use model. he focuses on the formal acceptance of the model and creates an impact on the social, economic, political, institutional factors to adopt a model. this model creates an accurate and appropriate understanding and a relationship between the digital economy and e-government. 2.5 definition of digital readiness according to fountain 2001, p 10, technology is increasing more than in past years. technological objectives like hardware, software, network capacity is upgrading their storage day by day. it helps to create more digitalization in the world. these digital activities involved with multiple roles that make interaction and create influence between digitalization and technology. 3. hypothesis development the tam method framework by davis 1989, defines that both the digitalization and e-government with the technology involved with economics, sociology, politics, management, culture, and so on. he included that the tam method and variable approaches show the hypothetical relationship between the e-government and digital economy. economist intelligence unit (eiu) 2010 measures an economy on the digital economy. it rests with the culture of an economy that effects the digital economy. copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 42 3.1 e-government dunleavy et al., 2006, p. 467, also added that e-government provides a unique opportunity for a country to make a dramatic change for its people. it provides technical opportunities to their people so that can be technically skillful to do any kind of job. it helps in organizational activities like training the employees for use of a machine, more production, and resource allocation, and so on. it also makes a unique change of culture which makes them different from others and also social effects. all of these factors are relating to each other on e-government. including all of these factors, the government turns into multi-dimensional and operates all those activities which are more complex than before. doong, h., wang, h., and foxallc, g.r. (2010) said that a psychological approach is used to examine the classical models, use the existing literature, adaption of citizenship, innovation cognitive styles, and involvement influence the loyalty intentions. higher loyalty intention is related to the e-government. people involved in the loyalty intention and other sectors to use in e-government. some psychological factors are associated with e-government and try to help better activities than before. world bank 2008 defines that e-government is increasing with the use of technology. by information technology government increases its business activities, services provided to the clients and society with the help of the government departments, and other governmental entities. according to, bélanger, f. and carter, l. (2012), the e-government creates a new domain with information technology which shows the interaction between the government constituents. previously e-government was themed by the information system, political science, public administration, and so on. along with the information system, e-government can create theoretical activities, methodology, sampling, and so on. over time e-government discover much new knowledge, relations, era for the people and society of own country. according to björn, n., elena, g., and ralf, p. (2012), e-government with the help the digital economy makes the mutual benefits for both the citizens and public administration. through the use of the internet, different kinds of internet adoption help to improve the concept of e-government. there is some corresponding research model social-demographic factors like age, gender helps to make the e-government more perfect. e-government distinguishes the user from an online user and traditional user of technology, institution, social activities and motivate people and train them to increase activities through the digital economy and develop of e governmental activities. the definition of bretschneider, s. (2003) shows that informational technology slowly enters into all fields of government like governmental organizations, institution, and so on. this information technology converts all the data of governmental activities analog to digital. it makes the organization of the government and digital evaluation analyzes the activities effectively and efficiently. e-government with the help of the internet collect data from all the parts of the country, delivers services online, also provides direct delivery of services to their clients. information technology also helps the government to restructure the organization, an institution of government, in the developed countries, the information system uses the most. it uses both the government and political activities, through the digital economy. coursey, d. and norris, d.f. (2008) said so investigation activities within e-government are new. he suggests using some model to test the accurateness of the government. these methods help to identify activities associated with e-government and the actual development of e-government. locale governmental activities are more informative and accurate to reduce the problem associated with them. but those models cannot accurately describe the development of e-government. they link both the information technology and government to predict and observe the activities associated with the government. h1: e-government is positively related to the influence of the digital economy 3.2 digital infrastructure cordella and iannacci, 2010; margetts and dunleavy, 2013 also analysed the digital era environment. they use the system in the post-management government system. after developing the model, the researcher uses it in the rural or insolvent area in the world. by training, the employees make them more skillful. digital era government makes the organization, institution more successful, and provides services to their clients through the internet. the digital government also called e-government reaches the appropriate level with the help of better technology. the rapid growth of information technology also increases the help of information and communication technology in a broad sense. ict help us to reshape our life and business activities globally. the internet with the help of information technology has become a vital infrastructure all over the world. according to the world economic forum (2014), the use of the internet is increasing all over the world of 1.5% for per capita gdp growth. the digital access with the help of internet infrastructure provides services and help to the individuals, businesses, geographical area, society, and other emerging economic activities. digital infrastructure also helps to increase the digital economy and e-government with increasing skills. according to world bank (2016), digital infrastructure with the help of technology increases the number of information, reducing the cost rate, reducing difficulties, bringing better innovation, sharing information, and so on. it creates better connectivity among, people, businesses, and government. the ultimate goal of the digital economy is to provide equal copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 43 facilities in the organization and so on. the new use of ict and the internet creates a new economy which increases transparency, reducing the inefficiency of a lack of information, and so on. bertot, j.c., jaeger, p.t., and grimes, j.m. (2010) include that many governments want to change their activities effectively and transparently. information and communications technology (ict) are more cost-effective to promote the activities of the government. e-government is increasing providing comprehensive support for the nations. information technology and ict both try to make good e-government and transparent activities. ict provides updated information, transparency to the society, good initiatives to take, building a better culture, changing agent, and so on. h2: digital infrastructure is positively related to the influence of the digital economy 3.3 digital readiness economist intelligence unit (eiu) 2010 and united nations 2012 show that many data for digitalization are collected from the higher networking system, a well-known website, e governmental policies, and strategies that are involved with these. all of these sources are established by digital readiness with the help of technology. from the research of pew research centre, with the faster growth of technology, many people or society are unable to reach in the situation, from 1930, when the electricity was developed for the household services, many american rural people were unable to reach in the opportunities. internet and smartphone are increasing day by day. but many people in the world, unaware of these features and activities. they also added that digital readiness has several characteristics which are digital skills, need for every people to access, and use the internet. second, they need trust to use the digitalization and the third one is using digital technology. the digital economy should ensure that they must reduce the digital realness and train the people to come up with the situation. the trust, use, and skill of digital readiness can be measured. the pew research centre 2015, the element of the digital readiness can be measured how satisfied the people are, how can they cope up with the digital economy, how can they learn, etc. digital learning is also called the way of learning. they concluded that with the help of digital readiness can be more experience, people can learn more and will be more digitalize. h3: digital readiness is positively related to the influence of the digital economy 3.4 digital content and services carlsson, b. (2004) indicates a new economy that shows the new trend of the economy. this new economy includes digitalization, the combination of the internet creates a new era of technology. it develops the relationship between actors and ideas. these new economies are continuous with the internet, multiple actors and ideas, a good level of connectivity with people and create a longterm goal. with the new trend of the economy, it develops in the production unit, agriculture, operating activities, manufacturing more than tradition. erumban, a.a., and de jong defines that, the use of information communication technology is using day by day. the rate of adoption increases as the income level increases. the adoption rate of ict is slide related to the national culture and international culture. but most of the time they differ from each other. ict helps to increase power and reduce uncertainty throughout the country. after creating a balanced level, ict helps to control the entire problem related to education and income. cooper, r.b., and zmud, r.w. (1990) define material requirements planning: mrp should be identified and examined clearly. information technology is related to managerial task to reach the goal. with the material requirement planning method, random sampling is also used to calculate the activities associated with the organization. information technology includes the adoption, political activities, financial activities, and other activities to examine the infusion associated with the organization. various important materials should be perfectly planned to reduce wastage and reach their goals. according to chinn, m.d., and fairlie, r.w. (2006), in developing countries, computers, and internet use are increasing. both developed and developing countries use the penetration rate, adoption rate through technology. the role of a comprehensive set is used in demographical, infrastructure; economic activities are used in the global area. financial development with stock, trade is used for the growth rate with the use of the internet. in the internet penetration telephone sector, various rates are included to work with the technology and analyze the differences between the computer and other technology with the ict sector. department of broadband, communications, and the digital economy, australian government specifies that eightgoal are used to identify the connectivity and the use of digital technology and helps to set up a vision to associate with the global digital economy. through the use of the digital economy, people from remote area can find educational, health services. they find out new initiatives for the improvement of the digital future. with the digital economy, the government will become digitalized. a correspondence is used to identify and improve performance and acceptance through online. with the digital economy, the government also uses online mailboxes. ict skills are also helpful for the digital future of the government. ict includes technology copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 44 and try to help and develop a relationship with both industries of government and educational institution. the digital economy helps individuals, business people, and non-profits organizations and so on. the government also helps to reach the goal and establish digital platform. the document shows that the digital economy helps to run the objective of the future, reflect the rapid growth digital future. chang, i.c., li, y.c. defines and creates the model of tax filing system which is reasonably accepted by the clients. he includes many factors to create the intention of the clients to use the system. and the system is related to the information system quality which provides quality information to their clients. these tax systems are used most in the governmental organization, institutions. in the governmental activities, the taxpaying system is used the most provided by the government. h4: digital content and services are positively related to the influence of the digital economy 4. research methodology 4.1 conceptual framework according to fountain 2001, schellong 2007, various important theoretical models create a conceptual framework for the workplace. they define that the model of fountains technology makes a structured framework for the government. they also literal on the nation’s industrialization activities, bureaucracy, the networking organization of the country, and lastly include governance to provide the society. fountain 2001 also added that technology, organizations, institutions help to take a better framework for both the digital economy with the government. a digital economy with the use of information technology can create better opportunities for the government. new technology also helps to make an automatic change. it also makes the change in the organization, the process of an institution, and so on. fountain defines that the digital economy can make a conceptual framework in governmental activities. proposed conceptual frameworks figure 1: proposed model of the relationship between e-government service development and digital economy system 4.2 hypothesis h1: e-government is positively related to the influence of the digital economy h2: digital infrastructure is positively related to the influence of the digital economy h3: digital readiness is positively related to the influence of the digital economy h4: digital content and services are positively related to the influence of the digital economy 4.3 variables 4.3.1 independent variables -digital infrastructure -digital readiness -digital content and services egovernment digital economy copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 45 4.3.2 dependent variable digital economy 4.3.3 mediating variable e-government 4.4 questionnaire design and measuring scale surveys are the easiest and popular way to collect number one statistics. since this survey is largely based on information number one, the questionnaire form is used as a survey tool. the questionnaire was designed by google form in an online-based formula. following, jezz (2002), the survey way on the global network was convenient, green time, and administrative convenience. this is a good option for connecting populations with greater access and destinations within larger and more diverse populations and special populations that may be a bit difficult to reach “coomber (1997), smith and leigh (1997), buchanan and smith (1999)”. furthermore, network online-based questionnaires can give excessive levels of anonymity that increase self-esteem and reduce anxiety and social desirability “coomber(1997); joinson(1999)”. we send email to selected respondents for inviting an online-based url hyperlink where include questioner server shape, the respondents need to completed questionnaire server just 7 to 10 minutes and respondents also get knowledge from the servery 4.5 target population and sampling target population we focus base on malaysia were people connecting with their e-governance and digital financial system. totally the population of malaysia (2018), thirty million. we use some random sampling for study purpose to know activity with egovernance and digital economic 4.6 frequencies distribution one of the methods for displaying specific information is the frequency distribution. so far, a clear and strong information view from respondents. so, this study helps me to get respondents information that can be analyzed using the frequencies distribution function by the spss software. 4.7 pilot test the submitted questionnaire was examined through experimentation before the last questionnaire was sent to the actual respondents. this test verification is intended are guarantee to the clarity and reliability of the proposed questionnaire and to obtain previously identified complexity. in line with (malhotra; 2008), it generally reduced the sample formula with a 15-35 interview. table 1. pilot test result variables cronbach’s α attitudes 0.854 subjective norms 0.829 perceived behavioral control 0.653 self-identity 0.786 4.8 facts evaluation this view uses four statistical analysis tools: descriptive notes that provide initial information on the demographic background of the respondents, reliability analysis of alpha cronbach that examines the reliability of the questionnaire used, analysis of factors related to independent predictive variables of multiple factors and coefficients of correlation kendall tau_b guarantees correlation coefficients between independent and dependent variables. 4.9 descriptive statistics expositive statistics describe the main skills of statistics. it has given a brief description of the model and presents quantitative measurements or descriptions in a simpler design. in this case, descriptive information is used to evaluate the interviewed demographic inheritance. this demographic context includes gender, age, higher education phase, modern profession, and income phase. copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 46 which will pump specific and dichotomous records on the spss software analysis program for explicate records evaluation? similarly, month-to-month gross earnings are divided into 6 agencies ranging from 1 to 6 for much less than 2000 rm, 2000 rm to 3999 rm, 4000rm to 5999 rm, 6000 rm to 7999 rm, 8000 rm to 9999 rm, 10000 rm & above. 4.10 reliability analysis the reliability evaluation offers statistics when referring to the relationship between the elements of the character tool. table 2.comparing the cronbach’s alpha for a different number of variables but the same average correlation average correlations no. of variables cronbach’s alpha (α) 0.5 1 0.500 0.5 2 0.667 0.5 3 0.750 0.5 4 0.800 0.5 5 0.833 0.5 6 0.857 0.5 7 0.875 0.5 8 0.889 0.5 9 0.900 0.5 10 0.909 0.5 11 0.917 0.5 12 0.923 0.5 13 0.929 0.5 14 0.933 0.5 15 0.938 source: nunnally (1978). 4.11 correlations analysis table 3. interpretation of the range of correlations coefficient analysis positive negative interpretation +1.00 -1.00 perfect +0.80 to +0.99 -0.80 to -0.99 very strong +0.60 to +0.79 -0.60 to -0.79 strong +0.40 to +0.59 -0.40 to -0.59 moderate +0.20 to +0.39 -0.20 to -0.39 weak +0.01 to +0.19 -0.01 to -0.19 very weak source: adopted from salkind (2009) 4.12 moderated a couple of regression it is possible to use more than a simple regression or regression model to find the presence of a simple result of the economic situation and the involuntary desire between the digital economy and electronic government. to examine the hypothesis of a direct and moderating relationship between the digital economy and moderate e-government, several regression analyzes were transformed into the following techniques used by “darrow and kahl, 1982” and “hair et al, 2010” and “evans, 1987”. the independent variable is in the first phase to obtain an effect of temporal principle in the second degree; dependent variables are transformed into regressions of independent moderating variables and consist of undistorted variables and moderators. 4.13 conclusion finally, you can then perform a pearson correlation or kendall t-test analysis to test the relationship between each of the distorted variables and the variables that are determined based on the results of the normal test. sooner or later, simplifying more than one copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 47 version of the regression will be used to examine the effects of economic conditions and the relationship between the digital economy and e-government. 5. results & findings the main point of correlation result analysis is to identify the correlation between open digital infrastructure variable, digital availability, digital content and services and, government-dependent variables in the digital economy. the survey sample study of 430 malaysians who were randomly selected. initially, the online questionnaire was designed using google forms for collecting questioner data. the google form url send to people via email & social media platform in november 2018. a total of 320 samples were collected via the online form. because of the smaller number of respondents in the online google survey form. table 4. population from respondents questionnaire total number of responses google form questionnaire distributed 320 printed questionnaire distributed 110 incomplete questionnaire 46 useable questionnaire 384 5.1 frequency distribution table 5. respondents by demographic characteristics variables by age frequency total percentage% gender male 191 48.6 female 202 51.4 age below 30 years old 143 36.4 30 to 39 years old 109 27.7 40 to 49 years old 86 21.9 50 to 59 years old 41 10.4 60 years old and above 14 3.6 highest education level total primary levels 2 0.5 total secondary levels 118 30.0 total diploma levels 67 17.0 total bachelor’s degree levels 169 43.0 total master’s degree levels 32 8.1 total doctoral degree levels 4 1.0 total others levels 1 0.3 5.2 reliability tests table 6. reliability test result numbers of variables before after numbers of item cronbach’s α numbers of item cronbach’s α digital infrastructure 5 0.746 5 0.746 digital readiness 5 0.655 4 0.717 digital contents and service 6 0.672 5 0.744 e-government 2 0.713 2 0.713 digital economy 4 0.457 3 0.720 notes: question 6, 11, and 19 from and from to increase cronbach’s α copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 48 5.3 factor analysis the factor analysis was performed using the method of extracting the main components on digital economic variables, electronic government, digital infrastructure, digital availability, digital content, and services. as evaluated in table 4.4, the sample value of the kaiser-meyer-olkin (kmo) measurement factor was 0.817. according to the practical rules proposed by kaiser (1974), a kmo greater than 0.8 for this analysis is useful and can be followed by factor analysis. furthermore, the chi-square estimated in the bartlett sphericity test was 2090,756 with 171 degrees of freedom and a significant chi-square value (p <0.001). factor analysis is considered a suitable technique for future data analysis. table 7. result of kmo and bartlett’s test kaiser-meyer-olkin measure of sampling adequacy 0.817 bartlett’s test of sphericity approx. chi-square 2090.756 df 171 sig. 0.000 table 8. communalities initial extraction 1) the digital economy has improved the economic condition of malaysia 1.000 .411 2) digital economy supports the sustainable development of malaysia 1.000 .596 3) the digital economy has a positive influence on e-government 1.000 .585 4) digital economy builds trust towards e-government development 1.000 .584 5) the digital economy is helpful for e0government development 1.000 .603 6) e-government has improved the economic condition of malaysia 1.000 .383 7) e-government supports the sustainable development of malaysia 1.000 .537 8) e-government has a positive influence on the digital economy 1.000 .542 9) e-government builds trust towards digital economy development 1.000 .613 10) e-government is helpful for digital economy development 1.000 .569 11) digital infrastructure has improved the economic condition of malaysia 1.000 .503 12) the digital infrastructure supports the sustainable development of malaysia 1.000 .617 13)digital infrastructure has a positive influence on the digital economy 1.000 .565 14) digital infrastructure builds trust towards digital economy development 1.000 .601 15) digital infrastructure is helpful for digital economy development 1.000 .731 16) digital readiness creates opportunities for the digital economy 1.000 .764 17) digital readiness support development of the digital economy in malaysia 1.000 .688 18) digital readiness has a positive influence on the digital economy 1.000 .661 19) digital readiness builds trust towards digital economy development 1.000 .555 extraction method: principal component analysis. table 9. digital content & services variable normality test of normality kolmogorov-smirnovaa shapiro-wilk statistic df sig. statistic df sig. digital content & services .101 384 .000 .958 393 .000 copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 49 table10. e-government and chi-square test chi-square tests value df asymp. sig. (2-sided) pearson chi-square 23.554a 12 .023 likelihood ratio 25.236 12 .014 linear-by-linear association 1.364 1 .243 n of valid cases 384 a. 2 cells (10.0%) have expected count less than 5. the minimum expected count is 4.37. table 11. digital infrastructure and chi-square test chi-square tests value df asymp. sig. (2-sided) pearson chi-square 23.554a 12 .023 likelihood ratio 25.236 12 .014 linear-by-linear association 1.364 1 .243 n of valid cases 384 table 12. digital readiness and chi-square test chi-square tests value df asymp. sig. (2-sided) pearson chi-square 35.792a 16 .003 likelihood ratio 34.685 16 .004 linear-by-linear association 8.972 1 .003 n of valid cases 384 table 13. digital content & services and chi-square test chi-square tests value df asymp. sig. (2-sided) pearson chi-square 35.792a 16 .003 likelihood ratio 34.685 16 .004 linear-by-linear association 8.972 1 .003 n of valid cases 384 table 14. e-government, digital economy, and kendall’s tau b test health value attitude kendall’s tau_b e-government correlation coefficient 1.000 .292** sig. (2-tailed) . .000 n 384 393 digital economy correlation coefficient .292** 1.000 sig. (2tailed) .000 . (n) 384 393 copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 50 table 15. digital infrastructure, digital economy, and kendall’s tau b test **. correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). table 16. digital readiness, digital economy and kendall’s tau b test correlations **. correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). table 17. digital content & services, digital economy, and kendall’s tau b test 6. summary of analysis table 18. hypotheses testing summary item hypothesis statement test result h1 e-government is positively related to the influence of the digital economy accepted h2 digital infrastructure is positively related to the influence of the digital economy accepted h3 digital readiness is positively related to the influence of the digital economy accepted h4 digital content and services are positively related to the influence of the digital economy accepted 7. conclusion this chapter affords the dialogue and ends approximately the find it examiner, challenge and as well as futurity experiment health value ds purchase intention kendall’s tau_b digital infrastructure correlation coefficient 1.000 .295** sig. (2-tailed) . .000 n 384 384 digital economy correlation coefficient .295** 1.000 sig. (2-tailed) .000 . n 384 384 health knowledge attitude kendall’s tau_b digital readiness correlation coefficient 1.000 .262** sig. (2-tailed) . .000 n 384 384 digital economy correlation coefficient .262** 1.000 sig. (2-tailed) .000 . n 384 384 health knowledge ds purchase intention kendall’s tau_b digital content & services correlation coefficient 1.000 .251** sig. (2-tailed) . .000 n 384 384 digital economy correlation coefficient .251** 1.000 sig. (2-tailed) .000 . n 384 384 copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 51 7.1 study on findings at fast, it is far thrilling that the study from this seems at observed the people have no dating on the e-government, virtual infrastructure, virtual readiness, digital content material, and offerings with the virtual economy. therefore, this result is not regular with the preceding findings acquired with the aid of kennedy et al. (2013) and ong et al. (2014) discovered out that digital economic system is most commonplace amongst ladies regarding e-authorities, virtual infrastructure, virtual readiness, digital content material and services girls. in other words, it means that can't be judged through gender. it could be quality explained that virtual economy is not best not unusual amongst ladies in malaysia, however, it is also not unusual amongst guys in recent times as malaysians have become extra digital financial system conscious (the celebrity online, 2017a). similarly, it additionally may be defined that clients in malaysia likely are more pick on the virtual economic system. alternatively, this observes additionally exhibits that the training stage also has no relationship to digital infrastructure and the virtual economy. accordingly, this results additionally inconsistent with the result acquired by way of bailey et al. (2010), paul and rana (2012), and dickinson & mackay (2014), which of their studies found that better education level becomes connected with the virtual economic system. its way that, for the populace in malaysia, e-government and digital financial system relationships cannot be chosen via their schooling level. it could exceptionally explain that people with better education levels might decide on e-authorities and digital economic system wonderful relationship (huffington put up, 2011). similarly, the virtual infrastructure is typically less expensive as compared to physical infrastructure. on the other hand, human beings with low schooling stage might affect on using of e-government with the digital economic system. from the study provided a solution to the 1st research finding or not e-government and digital systems are motivated via demographic data. and 2nd research findings on this examination observed that purchasers’ features have a sizeable connection with e-government & virtual financial system. it way that the information stage will affect the e-authorities, and the virtual economy relationship. moreover, the findings display that there is a vast nice relationship between e-authorities with the virtual economic systems. this result is constant with the findings from conner et al. (2001), tromp et al. (2005), jun et al. (2014), and dickinson & mackay, (2014). in different phrases, people with higher e-government centers are much more likely to have a high-quality impact on the virtual economy. on top of that digital content and offerings also indicates a widespread fantastic relationship with the digital financial system. this locating is helping by using de magistris & gracia (2013) also using harris and thomas (2016) and hsu et al. (2016). digital readiness can influence the digital economic system. consequently, the ministry of ict should have post greater effort on teaching human beings in the course of malaysia approximately e-authorities related difficulty in malaysia. the feature will affect digital readiness and the digital economy. thirdly, this study observed out that have an impact on and manage together with digital readiness, and virtual economic system has proven a wonderful importance courting. it implies that better virtual readiness will extra tend to persuade the virtual financial system. the findings are constant with preceding research conner et al (2001), conner et al (2003), chen (2007), chung et al. (2012), emanual et al. (2013). with the development of generation, human beings can now be without problems prompted by way of digital readiness and virtual economy. next, it's far observed out that there's a nice widespread courting between e-authorities with the virtual economy. this result is regular with the findings that acquired from chen, (2007) and gabriels & lambert, (2013), which inform that there may be high quality have an effect on e-government on the virtual economic system. however, this relationship could be very sturdy amongst the populace in urban areas of malaysia. e-government for the city population is plenty greater encouraged by using the digital economy system. furthermore, it is found out that there may be a high-quality extensive courting among digital infrastructure and virtual economic systems; high-quality enormous courting with the digital content material and services with digital economy. the finding is steady with the result received via chung et al. (2012) which discovered that virtual readiness changed into a robust impact inside the formation of a digital economic system. further, the finding additionally consistent with the previous studies acquired by using okleshen peters et al. (2004) and chen (2007) that higher virtual content material and services will have an impact on the virtual economic system. those factors controlled to respond to the third research query on whether or not virtual content material and offerings will affect the digital financial system. in the end, the result of this study discovered that there is a significant relationship among the digital content material and offerings and digital financial system. the virtual content material and offerings determined out to be the most powerful predictor of the virtual economic system on this observe. the finding is constant with the result acquired from armitage and conner (2001). this is regular with the locating acquired with the aid of chung et al. (2012). the end of the result of these paper virtual content and services and virtual economy courting. 7.2 implications even though 1/2 of the population in malaysia avail e-authorities and digital economy centers but growing at an alarming level. 1.8 million of the 3.5 million human beings in malaysia have been no longer alert they had been lacked in the back of e-governance and the digital financial system in malaysia has improved to 17.5% in 2015 from 15.2% in 2011 (new straits instances, 2016). hence, there are many things that need to be done to raise focus in malaysia to create an e-government dominated society for the present day and new era. in line with the demography attribute seen on table 4.2 from the preceding section where male come up with 52.8% of a general interview at the same time as a lady at 48.2%. from the interview total respondents’ people where most copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american economic & social review vol. 6, no. 1; 2020 52 of the people respondents under 40 years’ antique, that is generation y and z. also we got most of the respondents to possess a bachelor’s degree, followed through a secondary level and diploma as their highest schooling stage. as a result, the subsequent those involved are being offered to deal with this class of people first, each individual always wants to stay updated with the digital economy. no one desires to the back of the egovernment have to prepare digital economy thought to communicate to their human beings at the time whilst selling digital economy. each gender business must be targeted similarly as e-government associated difficulty in recent times appears uniformly concerned via male and lady. secondly, for gen y and z, the digital financial system is indicated through both correct. government knowledge is critical for them in preserving the proper virtual economic system. a hectic life-style had changed our economic lifestyles. a have a look at also reveals that lengthy-term hit e-authorities can build a sturdy digital economy (the celebrity on line, 2017). thus, man or woman ought to encourage e-authorities for establishing a digital economic system. as such, digital economy know-how should be included in our schooling machine as a middle problem. the government should beautify our training gadget by using integrating the crucial of the digital financial system into the syllabus of number one and secondary school. thirdly, an era is primary to gen y and gen z digital financial system practices. a remark from pals and own family contributors can significantly affect the digital economic system of gen y and z. e-government becomes so powerful with the help of technology along with the net and social media including facebook. also, digital word-of-mouth (e-wom) has also come to be a powerful and important tool on social media, which can be adopted by e-government to grow their attention to the virtual economic system. thru social media, humans can share their notion, opinion, and remark about the virtual financial system with their pals and own family participants on social media. as a result, this e-government sure will influence peoples’ attitudes towards the digital financial system. one of the success stories that undertake e-government as their device is edeka, considered one of the most important economies in germany, had efficaciously hooked up a connection with its human beings and will increase their consciousness about digital economic system via social media (business wired, 2015). fourthly, fact search is a crucial level inside the virtual financial system. the millennial technology had extensively used the net to collect statistics. a generation had made records will become very reasonably-priced and may be acquired in a completely fast manner whenever and anyplace. compared to standard media together with television, radio, mag, and newspaper, net technology can now without difficulty search and obtain information from the net. e-government ought to sell its virtual economy through the social media platforms. cyberspace permits the virtual economic system to attain its goal population in a rapid and fee efficient manner. similarly, educated humans could be capable of interpreting records easily. final however not least, gen y and z will always like to examine an e-government with the virtual economy. with the intention to grow the virtual economic system of a populace, we need to positioned greater effort on e-government. to lower down the charge, the authorities have to additionally encourage the digital economic system in malaysia through some incentive applications. further, the e-authorities can also beautify our e-tax device by means of introducing tax comfort for the virtual economy. by using doing this, it may encourage malaysian to people toward the digital financial system 7.3 limitations and future studies this has a look at has three boundaries as following: first, the questionnaire used in this study comprises a few technical periods that appear to be hard for apprehend via respondents. in destiny, the questionnaire has to layout in any such manner by way of formed of different languages including malay and mandarin to help the respondent to apprehend that means of the questions and thus improve statistical correctness was collection. secondly, this study is restrained to the most effective one important city in kuala lumpur. consequently, a summary of the results may not be complete. hence, inside in the future, the have a look at other must be included fundamental urban area and metropolitan area consisting of miri, bintulu and, kuching even to other cities in malaysia. ultimately, this has a look at best consists of gender and schooling level because there is demographic variable. therefore, inside the destiny, different a demographic variable together with age and income stage ought must be included on this research result an extended offer knowledge of impressive thing e-authorities and virtual economy courting 7.4 conclusion this vision has achieved a specific objective by determining the factors that influence electronic power and the digital economy. this takes a look at found out that mindset is the strongest component that has a wonderful courting to have an impact on the digital financial system. then again, a virtual financial system can be inspired by different variables. digital infrastructure located out to have a high-quality relationship with the digital economy, equal as fantastic courting of digital readiness with the virtual financial system. digital content and services show a strong relationship with the virtual economic system. further, it's far located that demographic variables including gender and education stage have no widespread relationship with e-government and digital economic system. copyright © cc-by-nc 2020, cribfb | aesr www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr american 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(2014). promoting digital content and services among young malaysian: toward an integrated digital economic framework. australasian digital marketing journal (admj). 22(3), 268-278. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/natpc.2011.6136267 copyrights copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal. this is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) https://doi.org/10.7864/j.ctvcb59n3 https://doi.org/10.1007/bf02291575 https://ro.uow.edu.au/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3253&context=smhpapers american economic & social review 9(1) (2022), 1-8 1 economic & social review aesr vol 9 no 1 (2022) p-issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 available online at https://www.cribfb.com journal homepage: https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr published by cribfb, usa the economic impact by covid-19 pandemic in south asia: islamic economical tool based short and long term policy responses for south asian muslim countries muhammad mostofa hossain (a)1 luqman haji abdullah (b) (a) phd, university malaya, malaysia; e-mail: shahinccc1@gmail.com (b) phd, university malaya, malaysia a r t i c l e i n f o article history: received: 02 october 2021 accepted: 11 march 2022 online publication: 26 march 2022 keywords: economical crisis, south asia covid-19 jel classification codes: a10 a b s t r a c t the covid-19 pandemic has direly smacked over 200 countries, threatening global economic growth that has adversely been peeved by the outbreak. it has patterned jeopardizes globally encompassing economic recession, probable high unemployment rate, mounting the poverty line and death of over 2.5 million people. meanwhile, the second peak of the pandemic is infuriating many countries which may result in around 13% to 32% projected global trade downgrade. alike, the south asian economy is suffering from a dire hit of the pandemic and undergoing an atrocious economical mishap. it resulted in a potential decline in the economy than in a normal downturn which materialized different rebounds in habitual succession. islam safeguards all necessities to authenticate people’s well-being. protecting ‘life’ and ‘wealth’ from those necessities means securing the human being from natural and humanmade shocks. islam, therefore, represents a set of principles to exile the shocks like the covid-19 pandemic. the paper aims to highlight the islamic framework and policy responses using its financial tools to get rid of the pandemic crisis in south asia, especially in the muslim countries of the reign. © 2022 by the authors. licensee cribfb, usa. this article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution (cc by) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). introduction the china identified disease covid-19 (huang et al., 2020) has affected around 212 countries (mohiuddin, 2020) of the world which due to that are suffering from numerous setbacks including a downturn in global economic growth by 3.0% to 6.0%, noteworthy unemployment toll and imminent poverty line (jackson, weiss, schwarzenberg, & nelson, 2020). it appeared one of the deadliest crises that have become ominous to the economy all over the world causing the loss of millions of jobs (gopinath, 2020; ilo, 2020). however, the newly terrifying wave is being occurred in many countries that will adjoin crucial exposure to the economy as well (jackson et al., 2020). considering one of the world’s poorest and most inhabited regions, south asia is observing its fragile healthcare facilities as it has only between 0.3 (afghanistan) to 1.0 (maldives, pakistan, and sri lanka) physicians for every 1000 people and very insufficient health assistants (chalise, 2020) which manifests the economical drawback of the reign. however, the reign encountered the pandemic after having a severe economic struggle in 2019 as it has undergone the worst growth in 40 years (world bank, 2020). this delicate growth in the reign caused up-surging the public debt levels and non-performing assets (npas) in banking sectors which affirms that the authorities are facing the tight fiscal challenge to deal with the pandemic crisis and to retain the liquid smoothness of banking sectors (world bank, 2020). hence, this is crucial for now, not only to highlight the best way to get back to the growth, rather, how to reconstruct precise economies that ensure outcomes for people and the planet, which may implement through deeper reflection and policy-making based on priorities across three timeframes: a. which were existing before the crisis, b. essential priorities for shorter-term revival and c. pivotal priorities for long term transformation for better outcomes 1corresponding author: orcid id: 0000-0002-5527-9681 © 2022 by the authors. hosting by cribfb. peer review under responsibility of cribfb, usa. https://doi.org/10.46281/aesr.v9i1.1667 to cite this article: hossain, m. m., & abdullah, l. h. (2022). the economic impact by covid-19 pandemic in south asia: islamic economical tool based short and long term policy responses for south asian muslim countries. american economic & social review, 9(1), 1-8. https://doi.org/10.46281/aesr.v9i1.1667 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) https://doi.org/10.46281/aesr.v9i1.1667 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5527-9681 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3180-7221 hossain & abdullah, american economic & social review 9(1) (2022), 1-8 2 on shared prosperity and sustainability in the future (schwab & zahidi, 2020). however, this priority management is called “fiqh al-awlawiyyat” in islam. the islamic economic policies are enshrined to guarantee the incorporation of ethos and realization of the socioeconomic goals, which are, a sustainable economic strength that connotes decent employment for all, optimum economic growth, socio-economic justice and fair circulation of wealth, and stabilizing the value of money (chapra, 1983) which all have been exposed by the covid-19 pandemic in south asia. being the complete code of life (quran, 02:19), islam furnishes a set of economical tools to enhance economical progress and to deal with abrupt crises. early islamic states were fully adhered to those tools to manage the state treasury and fund mobilization. hence, through individual, societal and institutional practices, it is seen that the compulsory (qardawi, 2010, p. 62), perpetual and optional (khan, 2001) payment methods have been applied to functionalize the state treasury. being muslim countries in the reign, bangladesh, pakistan, afghanistan and maldives are convenient for the policy-shaping through employing islamic tools which would saliently be workable to deal with the covid-19 crisis as they are suffering from negative fiscal, high unemployment rate and possible poverty line towering. the study discusses the economical crises by covid-19 in south asia, further, a brief explanation of the crisis in muslim countries in the reign. finally, it demonstrates an economical framework of islam and universal policy responses for south asia and its muslim countries. literature review the covid-19 pandemic has affected several economical territories all over the world which is analyzed through various economical fluctuations (jackson et al., (2020). consequently, being one of the populous reigns in the world, south asia is direly hit by the pandemic as its major economic domains and their habitual cycles are showing obscure nature. the maldives as a muslim country of the reign is in the hardest hit as it has seen the acute decline of gdp due to drying up its tourism. pakistan and afghanistan as other two important muslim countries have also been smashed by the gdp decline and bangladesh is suffering from economic tremble because of ready-made garments (rmg) order cancellation as well as local and migrant worker’s job dismissal (world bank, 2020; asghar, batool, farooq, & ur rehman, 2020; uddin, 2020). the pretty weaknesses of health services in south asia encompassing its muslim countries are extremely worrisome having insufficient physicians, health assistances and other health facilities (chalise, 2020) that affirm the financial inability of those countries. islamic economic approaches are conceived based on ethical harmony and awareness of socio-economic objectives which ensure people’s sustainable livelihood (chapra, 1983). it, therefore, advocates several financial tools (qardawi, 2010 & 1985) along with adaptive frameworks (akhtar & arif, 2001; naqvi, 1994) to deal with any abrupt crisis like covid-19. research methodology based on secondary data, the study has been conducted through descriptive and analytical approaches of qualitative and quantitative methods to shape the policies that might be adopted in the economical process to keep the region shielded from the pandemic economical shock. discussion the south asian economic outlook during covid-19 the south asian economical functions have experienced potential disruptions due to several lockdowns in the reign and resulted in different consequences than usual cycles (world bank, 2020). several forecasts indicate that the normal recessions are materialized due to the decline of expected demand, this time the crisis is for an inverted reason like supply obstruction, whilst the service sectors are direly encountered, gdp in a rapid fall compared to consumption, albeit consumption is moreover in sharp decline (world bank, 2020). typically, the correlation between global food and oil prices is determinant the food prices in the south asian reign (world bank, 2019; mittal & sethi 2009; cudjoe, breisinger, & diao, 2010) but this time, lockdown, border closure and social distancing measures seemed to be obstacles for local supply and hence, panic buying causes have been formulated for food price scramble (world bank, 2020). as such, afghanistan has seen price escalation for wheat and flour by about 15% and for cooking oil by 9%, meanwhile, in pakistan, prices have mounted by 13% for the same products. bangladesh, right away the lockdown declaration has undergone the climbing of wholesale prices; bhutan has observed a sudden jump of the people in the market because of the crucial ban on meat, fruits and vegetables that are mainly imported from india (world bank, 2020). therefore, starvation, food supply lacking and price elevation terrify millions of unprivileged people across the reign. however, most of them in the urban and rural areas are likely to be victimized by food price mounting due to their income-expenditure up to four-fifth on food. (hertel, preckel, & eales, 2004; mittal, 2009; akter & basher, 2014). likewise, the reign is jeopardized of food price hike since most of its population subsists very close to the poverty line (carrasco & mukhopadhyay, 2012) and thereby, it will perceive a high forecast of food insecurity and prevalent malnutrition of the children (world bank, 2020). conversely, there is an ignited discrimination in the reign by covid-19 disaster due to the downturn of the global growth in investments and trade that is more daunting to make the poorest harshly vulnerable (world bank, 2020) and by which the deprived people are seemed to lose their jobs and domestic migrant employees who have eluded from rural poverty being employed in cities are forced back into rural poverty again and ground significant intimidation of food insecurity (world bank, 2020). furthermore, many south asian migrant workers have lost their jobs in their host countries due to the pandemic crisis which negatively impacted the remittance inflows in the reign and resulted in an atypical sharp drop in remittances (world bank, 2020). indeed, reducing the remittance inflows due to this global crisis will intensify the setback in many south asian countries that lean on remittances (world bank, 2020) like bangladesh, pakistan, india, sri lanka and nepal formulating an outrageous storm on the shoulder. apart from that, the worst decline has appeared in the tourism and garments industry and supply chains (world bank, 2020) which produce a hossain & abdullah, american economic & social review 9(1) (2022), 1-8 3 potential unemployment threat in the reign. on top of that, consumption and investment responses are experiencing an unpleasant downturn, international capital is being withdrawn as well as a large part of the domestic economy is being frozen in most countries (world bank, 2020). following all risk issues, the south asian economy was predicted to shrink between 1.8 and 2.8% in 2020, which means a sharp fall from the 6.3% expected growth trend of six months earlier (world bank, 2020). despite that, the recovery trend of the worst-case scenario economy seems fragile as to be fatally affected by a second wave of the pandemic (world bank, 2020). consequently, the gdp decline would be more toxic by which a weaker recuperation will take place due to the production struggle to recover from the trough well into 2021 (world bank, 2020). figure 1. indicators of fiscal sustainability are worsening. overall fiscal balance, percentage of gdp source: world bank, 2020. figure 2. general government total debt: percentage of gdp source: world bank 2020 economy in the south asian muslim countries during covid-19 the afghan economy has somewhat recovered in 2019 from the previous negative realm, unfortunately, it approaching the negative turn again due to the covid-19 pandemic, which resulted in -5% of gdp growth and contribution in 2020 from 3% in 2019 (world bank, 2020). hence, the fiscal deficit was projected to be amplified to 2.9% of gdp from 1.1% in the previous year (world bank, 2020). bangladesh experiencing a sharp decline in gdp growth and contribution from 8% in 2019 to 3% in 2020, which indicates the catastrophic economic challenge of the country resulting from declining garment exports which is 80% of the country’s export earnings and 13% of total gdp (uddin, 2020), lower private investment growth and broader disruptions (world bank, 2020). however, insignificant revenue collection and higher recurring expenditures led to paramount the fiscal deficit to 7.7% of gdp in fy20, while growth was predicted to return over the medium term, downside risks remain, particularly from a domestic outbreak of covid-19 and delicate in the financial sector. due to the lack of gap narrowing measures, poverty is expected to increase significantly, as several pieces of research reveal that per capita daily income of urban and rural poor declines by 80% due to the nationwide closure enforced (uddin, 2020) which is the reflection of the worrisome of the economy that will even affect the year 2021 (world bank, 2020). the maldives, in this case, is fatal, where gdp is dropped by between 8.5% and 13% in 2020, as tourism and construction have dried up (world bank, 2020). the capital expenditures are vulnerable to be recovered due to the loss in tourism revenue, leading to an upturn in fiscal deficit and public debt. however, there is an anticipation of a potential poverty bump as livelihoods are closely connected to tourism and fisheries (world bank, 2020). in pakistan, the domestic and international -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 maldives sri lanka pakistan bangladesh nepal india bhutan afganistan 2018 2019 (e) 2020 (f) 2021 (f) 2022 (f) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 maldives sri lanka pakistan india bangladesh nepal bhutan afganistan 2018 2019 (e) 2020(f) 2021(f)2 2022(f) hossain & abdullah, american economic & social review 9(1) (2022), 1-8 4 supply chain is interrupted by the pandemic because of a lack of efforts and necessities and demand in both levels diminished occurring to immense layoff and poverty shock (asghar et al., 2020). the country has witnessed a loss of around $1.3 trillion caused by the pandemic and a 40% increase in poverty with the existing poverty line in the first half of 2020 (asghar et al., 2020). however, due to random export order termination, the country had to accept the negative spillover from the global economy (asghar et al., 2020). the spillover from the chinese economy in the textile sector alone has been estimated to be $44 million which caused a massive layoff in the textile sector (asghar et al., 2020). along with all these jeopardizes, pakistan has experienced a drastic decline in remittance inflows from 20.50% in december 2019 to 1.12% in april 2020 and a disparity between revenue collection and expenditure, while revenue collection was around pkr3000 billion, the expenditure at the same time is more than pkr4000 billion from july-december for fy20, that denote a relentless budget deficit and tax-to-gdp ratio that yet to meet the international standard (asghar et al., 2020). hence, being muslim countries of south asian reign, bangladesh, afghanistan, pakistan and maldives are in the discomfort of the economy caused by covid-19, which on the other hand, necessitate creating rooms for policymaking to get rid of the pandemic disaster implementing the islamic economic approaches. however, india, being the second largest muslim populated country in the reign and country itself, may also induce the islamic economic approaches at least for its muslim populations to narrow the pandemic economic adversity. the islamic framework to deal with covid-19 crisis being the creatures of one god, the ‘unity’ (tawhid) concept could be the primary framework to deal with the covid-19 crisis that enhances a moral based strong correspondence among the people that incites the holy accountability to help each other (hossain, 2019) in such difficulty. ‘representation’ (khilafah), (akhtar & arif, 2001, p. 636) considering as a framework, deploys accreditation of human beings over the resources (ni’amah) that solely are devoted for them being the vicegerent of allah (chapra, 2008) to entail the progress (hossain, 2019) and eliminate hardship like covid-19. ‘justice’ (‘adalah), (akhtar & arif, 2001, p. 637) to be a further framework to deal with the covid-19 hardship, constitutes multilevel equity (quran, 57:25) through fair distribution of resources (ni’amah), ownership control and malpractice prevention. alike, ‘benevolence’ (ihsan) and ‘responsibility (fard) (naqvi, 1994, p. 31) as to be frameworks to deal with the pandemic, have the salient feat to rescue the covid-19 unprivileged fellows from its shocks awakening sacred kindness and obligations. on the other hand, ‘participation’ (musharakah) as a framework, may devise up a strong state of togetherness to fight against any calamity jointly and potentially influence the reduction of discrimination caused by covid-19. however, ‘austerity’ (zuhud), ‘simplicity’ (basatah), “social capital” (arham), ‘cooperation’ (ta’aun) , reliance (tawakkul) and patience (sabr) are potential frameworks that are pivotal to getting rid of the covid-19 economical shocks. austerity (zuhud) implies a motivation to avail strong capacity to be transformed from adversity to diversity, ‘simplicity’ (basatah) demotivates people from unnecessary and overconsumption instead refers to a necessity-based moderate lifestyle, “social capital” (arham) builds a society based micro-relationship, ‘cooperation’ (ta’aun) develops a regional and global macro-relationship to tackle any predicted or abrupted crisis like covid-19 while reliance (tawakkul) and patience (sabr) work as an eventual mental support system when corporal supports i.e. inventions, power, rationale come into an end due to natural or fabricated reasons. potential islamic tools to deal with the covid-19 economical crisis in south asia zakat, being a mandatory tax (huq, 1996, p. 229-230) and waqf as an optional charity have the absolute sustainable aptitude to deal with the covid-19 economical disaster. both may generate a hefty protective shield for the country's economical territories if they are paired in the mainstream development process and diversified to be matched with several institutional operations (ahmad, 2004, p.15). however, zakat particularly has an enormous potential to be replaced by interest-based heavy foreign debt for developing countries like bangladesh (hassan, 2006). on the other hand, through awqaf, the government debt burden and the budget deficit reduction, lessening issues with supply disruption of public goods, narrowing the gap of crowding-out effect and removing the key obstructions in private investment and growth are very likely to be settled (cizakca, 2002) that all were in the negative sphere during covid-19 in south asia. alike, to policy-shaping for reproduction and distribution of assets and opportunities, skill development schemes and widening income consistency, both zakat and awqaf have the much-needed potential being compliant with the institutional strategies (ahmed, 2004, p.15). islamic banking and finance nowadays is a big player in the financial domain that achieved incredible growth (hossain, 2017) by offering sme, industrial investment and various deposit and development schemes. the universal participatory methods of profit and loss-sharing, direct investments, non-profit and loss-sharing are unique for the countries to escape covid-19 financial shock. however, as significant tools, micro-credit and micro-finance (hassan & alamgir, 2002; obaidullah, 2008) may speed up wage creation (akhtar & arif 2001) and self-employment opportunities (hassan & alamgir, 2002) at various levels of society that have been affected by covid-19 crisis. besides, takaful has also much feasibility to protect people from financial and natural shock (bakar, 2002). alternatively, usher (tax of farming produces), kharaj (agriculture tax from non-muslim), and other supporting economical surpluses like ‘afwu, infaq and sadaqah are enhancing forces to fight against poverty (qardawi, 1985, p.107) caused by the pandemic. voluntary charities that include hibah and involuntary charities such as the property of inheritance (huq, 1996, p. 229-230), zakat al-fitr (qardawi, 1985, p. 67), distribution of meat from eid al-adha, the substances derived from oath (kaffarah), fidyah, hadiyi, (qardawi, 1985, p. 118-119), mahr, qard al-hashanah etc can play a significant role in economical processes which have been devastated due to the pandemic. hossain & abdullah, american economic & social review 9(1) (2022), 1-8 5 policy responses for south asian muslim countries to deal with economic crisis the person with mental and physical soundness is encouraged to hunt his livelihood in islam as a means of self-employment creation initiative which is evident by the quran (62:10) and sunnah (bukhari: 2072, book of transactions). incorporating the importance of the self-employment creation might be the reason for all prophet (pbuh) to be chosen as shepherds for a certain period of their lives including prophet muhammad (pbuh) (bukhari: 2262, book of hiring). hence, the primary policy to deal with the covid-19 pandemic crisis can be called “individual initiative policy (iip)”, which will lead affected people to clutch every possible opportunity so that they can contribute to the family livelihood and create family enterprises as the part of self-employment formation. the “societal initiative policy (sip)” has an auspicious intensity to reduce the economical crisis of covid-19. people sometimes are incapable to create their employment due to inadequate essential supports, which necessitates the society to architect those supports (qardawi, 1985, p. 35) or facilitate employment opportunities for them (akhtar, 2014, p. 38). the practice of this policy has taken place through the employment creation initiative by prophet (pbuh) for the beggar (sunan abu daud: 1641, book of zakat) who was less-privileged duo the lack of underlying supports of skill to make a regular good into a business item. hence, as part of this policy, uncultivated land and idle wealth can be distributed to the pandemic affected people that will pattern a way out of the shock. on the other hand, “old-age” or “food pack” donations that are kept in the rack of mosques or public warehouses loaded with necessary rations for free distribution, the “suspension meal” that is collected from a customer who buys it as an extra on top of his meal, and keeps with the seller to be given free to the needy ones upon their inquiry are workable to prevent the food insecurity during and post-pandemic. however, the appointment of prophet (pbuh) under khadizah (ra) as a business manager to take care of her business is also an instance of employment creation under sip policy. there might be a policy called “co-operational initiative policy (cip)”. people who are suffering from unemployment in their place due to a lack of resources and facilities may move to a place where they will have employment opportunities (qardawi, 1985, p. 53). the privileged muslim countries in this regard should unveil employment opportunities in their land as a part of sacred responsibility and cooperation which is inspired by the quran (5:2). the examples of ansar in terms of sacrifices and cooperations towards muhajir (bukhari, 2719, book of conditions) are vibrant to follow this policy. hence, to exercise this policy, the privileged muslim countries may allow emigrants from the pandemic affected unprivileged countries into their land. likewise, the “friendly initiative policy (fip)” can rigorously help the classified misfortunate people of the society. the exposed cults such as mentally and physically disabled, widows, orphans, old aged unable to work or disaster-affected (qardawi, 1985, p. 53) are entitled to be rehabilitated through the state, society, neighbour, relatives (quran, 2:177) and adjacent philanthropists (qardawi, 1985, p. 53) for a peaceful regular life as a means of justice and ihsann (quran, 16:90). a “crisis-response” emergency zakat and awqaf fund can be initiated to found countrywide food banks, cold storage, warehouses for sustainable food security as a means of “state response measures (srm)” to covid-19, which may fully be organized by the state under the “institutional initiative policy (inip)”. aside, from measuring the extent of the crisis, there can be food transfer and incentives given among the affected areas on a short and long term basis. public utility charges such as water, electricity and fuel costs for public transportation can also be subsidized through this fund. furthermore, the south asian muslim countries have observed the shutdown of many educational institutes, especially privately run ones. all these institutes deal with pandemic hindrances, are eligible to be funded to resume their regular operations and students also can be financed to escape the burden of tuition fees. south asia as an agro-based reign, for example, agriculture is 45% of the labour force of bangladesh (bangladesh bureau of statistics, 2016) which is 84% of rural people’s occupation (uddin, 2015), which adds around 17% of the total gdp of the country (bangladesh bureau of statistics, 2016), in pakistan 21% gdp is contributed from agriculture with 2.7% annual growth (azam & shafique, 2017; govt. of pakistan, 2004/05), which is 44% of the total employment and the determinant of livelihood for 62% rural population (azam & shafique, 2017), is suffering severe economical vulnerability by covid-19. hence, this enlarged domain of economy should be granted free fertilizer, seeds, cultivating tractors, agriculture enhancement training, pieces of other light equipment and other underlying agriculture based services i.e research for sustainable agriculture through this fund. however, to enrich the infrastructures and resources to facilitate one-stop crisis centres to provide immediate medical support for covid-19 infected, on and offline one-stop service centres, trade zones for various trades, temporary employment information and creation assistance booths, constant innovations (muslim: 2361, the book of virtues) to lessen infection spread and to share the business idea which had been embodied by ansar and muhajir in medina are worthy to deal with the pandemic crisis. setting up a nationwide precautious shelter booth through this fund is significantly important to distribute free protective gears, hand gloves, sanitizers, face masks and face shields for possible exposed ones to the pandemic. yet, if there is a shortage of funds, the advance zakat disburses scheme can be enforced by applying the darurah (necessity) policy of islam. establishing “combined islamic community bank (cicb)” can be a major way out form the pandemic economical recession across the reign. all islamic social funds i.e zakat being separated scheme as it has classified recipients to distribute and others such as awqaf, qard al-hasanah, donation, hibah and csr being unified are potential for the classified individuals and institutions that are discriminated by the pandemic. this policy may play a substantial role in sliming the financial shortage of the state, its debt burden, budget deficit and instalment payment loads along with creating huge employment opportunities. in the realization of fiqh al-waqi’ and fiqh al-awlawiyaat, “social industry (si)” can be founded through zakat and awqaf donations to produce protective gears which would have a dynamic aptitude to fight against the unemployment disaster by of covid-19. employees who have lost their jobs in various sectors such as the garment sector in bangladesh can be mobilized into the factories that produce ventilators, oxygen cylinders, personal protective equipment (ppe), icu beds, face masks and shields, hand sanitizers and gloves and oximeters etc which have already been highly demanded all over the world. however, “temporary public work program (tpwp)” (word bank, 2020, p 50-51) realizing the fiqh alwaqi’ can also be manifested. people who are in grief due to losing their permanent job may be engaged in temporary food delivery, sanitizing public places (word bank, 2020, p 50-51), old-aged and child care for the parents and offspring of hossain & abdullah, american economic & social review 9(1) (2022), 1-8 6 covid-19 patients and front-liners, emergency health and protective items dropping-off to the doorsteps of affected people and mobile health services. “private-public partnership fund (pppf)” running under a special purpose vehicle (spv) for its flawless function might be a unique initiative. realizing the musharakah (participating) framework, all private and public entities, ngos, charities and relief organizations can be the master sponsors for this fund that will help to set up covid-19 hospitals and clinics, nationwide emergency health assistance booths, call centers to follow-up the quarantine people, vaccine research lab and to implement free mass vaccination program. islamic banking and finance industry has an enormous responsibility based on fard and ihsan frameworks to its customers who are in direly need of credit extension and necessary funds to prevail their business operations that have been affected by the pandemic. especially, the pandemic affected large scale companies that have a potential contribution to inclusive growth should be financed to secure regular growth and employment flow. issuing “covid-19 sukuk (c19s)” through the capital market has possible prosperity to rejuvenate affected private and public entities. existing potential players in the market may subscribe to the sukuk realizing the ta’aun (cooperation) (quran, 5:2) framework. similarly, ibf may yield the firms and individuals debt-services and instalments moratoriums for this considering period to protect them from the financial downturn. however, it may escalate the remote area’s social functions representing its services through the nationwide branch network. the role of micro-credit and finance is also immense in this crucial circumstance; they may introduce a “comprehensive qard al-hasanah scheme (cqhs)” as the safeguard of small-medium enterprises (sme) that have severely been devastated by several lockdowns. the existing micro-credit loan can be distinguished as a moratorium facility for those who are unable to pay (mu’sir, quran, 2:280) until a new normal realizing the ihsan framework. on the other hand, takaful may also have a dominant posture to deal with the pandemic disaster. the classified low-income people such as garments, constructions, restaurants, public transport workers and covid-19 front-liners who are exposed might be granted takaful policies with a nominal (free if possible) fee along with the policy revision of existing clients covering the covid-19 treatment cost. the awareness of the “hayat al-mutawassitah policy (hmp)” (cost-effective livelihood or simplicity) may lead to an accommodating life standard to deal with the covid-19 economical crisis. the teaching of prophet yusuf (pbuh) (quran, yusuf: 47 & 48) can be a parameter in this regard. this hmp can be carried out by avoiding heavy debt by the individual and country, overconsumption, waste (quran, 07:41) and luxury. however, branding the “simple-life”, emphasizing the necessity and needfulness of people’s life can be a significant way to get rid of the pandemic crisis. the country’s print, electronic and social media may voluntarily promote the idea nationwide. alongside, the tashaddud (desperate) state of policy should also be avoided to let affected people safe from the pandemic shock. for instance, potential employers should empathize with employees by not paying them off rather lessening their salary at least to keep their hope not to be unemployed (word bank, 2020, p 51). concluding remarks it is can be said that the application of the aforementioned policies using islamic financial tools creates various rooms to escape the covid-19 pandemic crisis and to stabilize the economic process. the previous islamic state authority was fully reliant on the discussed tools for hundreds of years for the state-owned treasury that was spent for infrastructural and human development projects which are alike to the current time activities of the ministry of the finance and economy, the central bank and the capital market. the paper furthermore, demonstrated the dire outlook of the south asian economy caused by covid-19 and analyzed several forecasts, then proposed the policies to be adopted in the south asian countries, more specifically south asian muslim countries like bangladesh, pakistan, maldives and afghanistan. there are still much-needed rooms to adopt the proposed policies because of their diversified approaches that include individual, societal and institutional sufferers. hence, the application of the policies such as individual initiative policy (iip), societal initiative policy (sip), cooperational initiative policy (cip), friendly initiative policy (fip) and institutional initiative policy (inip) that refers to “state response measure (srm)”, “combined community bank (ccb)”, “private-public partnership fund (pppf)”, “social industry (si)”, “temporary public work program (tpwp)”, “comprehensive qard al-hasanah scheme (cqhs)”, “hayat al-mutawassitah policy (hmp)” or cost-effective livelihood awareness, enhancing and stabilizing social operations, issuing covid-19 sukuk (c19s) and moratoriums utilizing the underlying tools like zakat, awqaf, micro-credit and finance, ibf and other supplementary tools like sadaqah, irfaq, mahr, hibah has leading workability as to be authenticated by allah (sw). author contributions: conceptualization, m.m.h. and l.h.a.; data curation, m.m.h. and l.h.a.; methodology, m.m.h.; validation, m.m.h. and l.h.a.; visualization, m.m.h.; formal analysis, m.m.h. and l.h.a.; investigation, m.m.h. and l.h.a.; resources, m.m.h.; writing – original draft, m.m.h.; writing – review & editing, m.m.h. and l.h.a.; supervision, m.m.h.; software, m.m.h.; project administration, m.m.h.; funding acquisition, m.m.h. and l.h.a. authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript. institutional review board statement: ethical review and approval were waived for this study, due to that the research does not deal with vulnerable groups or sensitive issues. funding: the authors received no direct funding for this research. informed consent statement: informed consent was obtained from all subjects involved in the study. data availability statement: the data presented in this study are available on request from the corresponding author. the data are not publicly available due to restrictions. 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(2019). south asia economic focus, fall 2019: making (de) centralization work. the world bank. washington, dc. http://www.weforum.org/ hossain & abdullah, american economic & social review 9(1) (2022), 1-8 8 world bank (2020). south asia economic focus, spring 2020: the economic impact of covid-19 on south asia: the cursed blessing of public banks. the world bank. washington dc. publisher’s note: cribfb stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. © 2022 by the authors. licensee cribfb, usa. this article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution (cc by) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). american economic & social review (p-issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277) by cribfb is licensed under a creative commons attribution 4.0 international license. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ american economic & social review 9(1) (2022), 17-28 17 economic & social review aesr vol 9 no 1 (2022) p-issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 available online at https://www.cribfb.com journal homepage: https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr published by cribfb, usa governmental and institutional initiatives and actions for the attraction and expansion of ecommerce by women in bangladesh afsana mimi (a)1 md. ali imran (b) tahrima haque beg (c) md. sazidur rahman (d) (a) lecturer, faculty of business & entrepreneurship, daffodil international university, dhaka, bangladesh; e-mail: afsana.ba0178.c@diu.edu.bd (b) assistant professor, department of business studies, faculty of business & entrepreneurship, daffodil international university, dhaka, bangladesh; e-mail: imran@daffodil.ac (c)assistant professor, department of management & finance, sher-e-bangla agricultural university, dhaka, bangladesh; e-mail: sau.finance1@gmail.com (d) executive officer, dutch-bangla bank limited, dhaka, bangladesh; e-mail: sazid191017@gmail.com a r t i c l e i n f o article history: received: 3rd february 2022 accepted: 24th may 2022 online publication: 27th may 2022 keywords: women entrepreneurship, financially independent, governmental support institutional support jel classification codes: l81 a b s t r a c t this research investigates the initiatives and actions taken by the government of bangladesh and institutions to attract women into e-commerce and introduce these women as financially independent. the existence and power of women in bangladesh are very weak, and this is due to dependency, lack of education, and skills. to remove these obstacles and empower women through e-commerce, the government and different institutions are taking various initiatives and actions as they can contribute to the development of bangladesh. this study evaluates how government and other institutions are working to introduce e-commerce as a strong tool for women's economic independence in bangladesh. the government is taking action to provide direct funds, introducing simple policies, tax exemptions, easy business space, transportation assistance, and many other ways. different organizations are also working to assist the government of bangladesh in empowering women through e-commerce. the policy recommendations could be helpful for the government of the people's republic of bangladesh to mitigate its challenges and make this sector more profitable. © 2022 by the authors. licensee cribfb, usa. this article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution (cc by) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). introduction in the world as well as bangladesh, women are economically, socially, politically, and emotionally disadvantaged. furthermore, women face substantial prejudice in areas like education, healthcare, and social services (haque, 2021). in developing nations like bangladesh, e-commerce has the ability to level the economic playing field for women, and it is considered one of the pushing factors behind women's economic empowerment (weforum, 2020). recent graduation from the group of least developed nations (ldcs) to a developing country opens up this opportunity as well as new chances for bangladesh (dhakatribune, 2021). taher (2021) stated that the internet has become crucial to the global commerce. from the comfort of their own homes, buyers and sellers are selling things online. people have realized the value of it during the coronavirus epidemic and everyone is increasingly interested in e-commerce. at the same time, millions of others will get jobs. women entrepreneurs in particular are now selling a major share of their products online rather than in person. as a result, they are paid fairly for their products, and their health risks are minimized and thus they are gaining financial independence and becoming selfsufficient (rahman, 2021). women's footsteps are increasing in different sectors of bangladesh. women are not backward in any way. at the beginning of the fourth industrial revolution, they are bringing success by working in various fields inside and outside the country. the participation of women is also seen most in the entrepreneurial sector. surprising but true is that women have more business ownership in bangladesh than in many other developed countries (hossain et al., 2021). e-commerce has provided women in bangladesh with the opportunity to work from home. a large market for online-based e-commerce 1corresponding author: orcid id: 0000-0003-1055-9919 © 2022 by the authors. hosting by cribfb. peer review under responsibility of cribfb, usa. https://doi.org/10.46281/aesr.v9i1.1733 to cite this article: mimi, a., imran, m. a., beg, t. h., & rahman, m. s. (2022). governmental and institutional initiatives and actions for the attraction and expansion of e-commerce by women in bangladesh. american economic & social review, 9(1), 17-28. https://doi.org/10.46281/aesr.v9i1.1733 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) https://doi.org/10.46281/aesr.v9i1.1733 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1055-9919 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4732-063x https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0149-5968 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4097-6337 mimi et al., american economic & social review 9(1) (2022), 17-28 18 businesses has emerged in recent years. women are also in charge of a significant proportion of the country's online commerce. women entrepreneurs in bangladesh have a lot of potential. it is time to make this possibility a reality and ensure women's empowerment through economic development and social progress. however, there are numerous barriers to women becoming successful entrepreneurs (afroze et al., 2014). but it is a matter of great joy that bangladesh's government has taken significant steps to promote women's empowerment through e-commerce and to remove these hurdles by enacting various initiatives and guidelines. the government is taking steps to give direct funding by enacting simple rules, tax exemptions, easy access to business space, and transportation aid, among other things. true development is impossible without excluding women, which is half of the country's people. as a result, the government is attempting to create a business environment that favors women. e-commerce will undoubtedly assist women entrepreneurs in the country in resuming their post-coronavirus economic recovery efforts (sultana & akter, 2021). various institutions, such as the women & e-commerce forum (we), handle the requirements of the female entrepreneurs in addition to the government. we want to assist female e-commerce entrepreneurs in sustaining and empowering their businesses (the business standard, 2021). the e-commerce association of bangladesh (e-cab) aspires to establish a single platform for women to provide support and assistance. for the advancement of women in the e-commerce industry, they engage in a variety of activities such as research, publication, training, workshops, and seminars (dhaka tribune, 2021). women don't have to waste time sitting at home, thanks to e-commerce. furthermore, effective marketing at a low cost, easy management, minimal investment, a short time frame, and global business opportunities with no indirect costs, a simple online payment system, and 24 hour business opportunities make e-commerce appealing. women are growing more engaged in online business as a result of these factors. the contribution of women is behind the development of bangladesh. the government is making women more efficient and effective. this will ensure the equality of women in the workplace.. literature review concept of e-commerce electronic commerce is referred to as e-commerce. simply said, it is the act of conducting business through electronic media. e-commerce (electronic commerce) is the purchase and sale of products and services, as well as the transmission of payments and data, over an electronic network, primarily the (chai et al., 2020; ali et al., 2020a; ali et al., 2020b; chowdhury et al., 2020; f. chowdhury et al., 2021; s. chowdhury et al., 2021; iqbal et al., 2021; kader et al., 2019; kader et al., 2021a; kader et al., 2021b; kabir et al., 2021; nayeen et al., 2020; nahar et al., 2021; rahman et al., 2021a; rahman et al., 2021b; shahriar 2021a; shahriar 2021b; zayed et al., 2021a; and zayed et al., 2021b) internet. these transactions can be b2b, b2c, c2c, or c2b. e-commerce and e-business are phrases that are frequently interchanged. while ebusiness covers all aspects of managing an online firm, ecommerce focuses on the exchange of goods and services (deitel, 2011). computers, laptops, smartphones, and various smart devices are used to conduct the e-commerce. nowadays, ecommerce allows to buy almost anything (stefko et al., 2019). motivational factors that engage women in e-commerce e-commerce is becoming popular in bangladesh as well as all over the world. our women are also moving ahead in the ecommerce business which has become popular in art, literature, culture. although online business is still very new to the people of our country, women are no longer lagging behind men in terms of doing business in the online world. rather, women's participation in e-commerce is slowly increasing. 60% of the country's e-commerce industry is occupied by women. some factors motivate women to engage in e-commerce. the least investment, opportunity of working from home, and global reach are the main reasons for choosing e-commerce. a big advantage of e-commerce is the opportunity to continue working as well as study. the number of women who prefer to order online at home rather than go to the market to buy by pushing the crowd is also increasing day by day, which is a positive aspect for online business (jethwa & mishra, 2016). economic independence: according to hakim (2016), women’s economic independence identifies that women play the role of economic actors who contribute to economic activity and should be benefitted equally with men from it and that financial independence can have a significant role in reinforcing the position of women in society and within the household. devalla (2016) stated that economic independence plays a key role to establish women’s empowerment. e-commerce allows women for getting economic independence by running their own businesses by balancing their personal and professional life. the flow of e-commerce has brought financial freedom for women and also brought imaginative fulfillment. for this reason, they become self-dependent and actively participating in decision-making. they are also becoming successful leaders. now women enjoyed financial freedom and are no longer reliant on their families for economic backup. social recognition: every entrepreneur wants to gain prestige or status, to be known and respected. they also want to be a role model for people to be followed. these social reasons drive the entrepreneur to operate an online business. women can be socially recognized through their online business. through e-commerce, they can contribute to the family and this helps them to achieve a social status along with men. by running online businesses, women can make significant gains along with shifts in social attitudes. moreover, they also gain self-prestige, the status of an online business owner will definitely give a special superiority which is not possible if she works with other people as employees (lewis, 2013). self-reliance: e-commerce helps women to achieve self-reliance. for this women do not need to depend on their families for economic support. they can now contribute to their families as well as the national economy through income generation mimi et al., american economic & social review 9(1) (2022), 17-28 19 activities. for this reason, they can now enhance their living standard and also motivate other women to become financially dependent. furthermore, these women-driven businesses help to reduce the unemployment rate and accelerate the national gdp by creating additional opportunities (maier & nair-reichert, 2007). global reach: today, women entrepreneurs can reach out to customers in any part of the world to sell their products, through the use of e-commerce because e-commerce has enhanced the reach of business establishments. they also create the opportunity to establish a newer market for their products through e-commerce (jethwa & mishra, 2016). eliminate gender bias: the perfect platform for fighting against the current discriminations between men and women in entrepreneurship is e-commerce. "achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls" is the sustainable development aim under agenda 2030. by enhancing the use of ict this aim can be achieved. the e-commerce platform offers women new business opportunities and increases the chance of their involvement in national and international commerce. women are now accelerating growth, helping poverty reduction as well as reducing inequalities through ecommerce (dhakatribune, 2020). convenience & cost saving: fanggidae et al. (2019) stated that e-commerce activities are more convenient than any other form of business and these activities can be performed at home and require no physical shop to operate the business. one can receive queries and replies these queries immediately. privacy, safety, and security of transactions can be secured by maintaining passwords. it also makes the fastest business transactions which can save time and money. investment: one of the most motivational factors to engage in e-commerce is the least investment. one can start her online business with minimum investment. one can come up with a unique business idea, show some creativity and can raise funds from personal savings or friends and families, and start her own online business (bangladeshpost, 2021). ease of information: internet stores various types of data concerning business. any women enterpriser will access the net through e-business route and requisite data regarding the product, its constituents, specialties, value terms of sale and payment, etc. with ease and speed (jethwa & mishra, 2016). covid-19 pandemic: more than before, many customers are now becoming familiar with online shopping during this pandemic. as a result, women are now getting much more involved in online businesses to fulfill the current demand. due to the pandemic, bangladesh witnessed a boost in online business because the pandemic accelerated the shifting towards the more digital world. a large number of women grab this opportunity and started an online business using skills, creativity, and innovation (jahan, 2021). government’s roles that influence women to start e-commerce government of bangladesh has taken enough initiative to promote women empowerment through e-commerce by introducing different schemes and policies. some of the initiatives are given below, including more small entrepreneurs under e-commerce: the pandemic has hit all businesses, big and small. traders are struggling to cut losses. however, during the covid-19 period, online business has grown at a much geometric rate. ict minister junaid ahmed palak said the e-commerce sector has grown by 300 percent during this period. he said the government is working to bring at least 2 lakh more small entrepreneurs under e-commerce by 2023 (the daily star, 2021). different funding projects: many women entrepreneurs have started trying to move forward on their own initiative instead of conventional jobs. various government and non-government initiatives are underway to build a startup culture in the country. lightcastle analytics wing (2020) found that the country's fast 4g internet facility is showing new dreams to startups. the pandemic has taught them to think differently. at the government level, 135 startups have been funded. about 7,000 startups have stood in the last six months under the idea project, including the government's student to startup program. programs: government takes different incentive programs for women empowerment. bangladesh is a developing country where most of the women don’t have the personal savings to start a new business. according to jahan (2021), for encouraging more women in e-commerce sector government will provide tk 10 crore for 2000 women of our country. role of bangladesh bank: state minister for information and communication technology (ict) zunaid ahmed palak stated that bangladesh bank have to play two role for e-commerce sector1) regulator 2) facilitator. it is also announced that bangladesh bank will perform as a payment gateway where it will hold the buyers advance payment until the delivery (the business standard, 2021). for this, transaction will be increased and the risk will be reduced. incentives for exporters: the government is providing cash assistance of up to 20 percent for exports considering the products and the market. but most of the small entrepreneurs who export products online have no idea about this issue. they are being deprived of incentives. with proper training and the creation of a separate platform, the women's e-commerce forum feels it is possible to bring these small entrepreneurs under incentives (ekushey-tv, 2021). mimi et al., american economic & social review 9(1) (2022), 17-28 20 internet facilities: four things are required for accelerates e-commerce for women and these are internet for everyone, adequate logistics, digital transactions, and trust. to ensure these, the government is taking the internet to rural areas. at the same time, the post offices are being activated. postal department employees will be employed in this sector. a number of companies in the sector have been brought on the same platform to secure digital transactions. training programs: in the proposed budget for the fiscal year 2021-22, the finance minister said a project titled 'i will do e-commerce, build my own business' has been taken up at the initiative of the commerce ministry to create more employment opportunities by creating entrepreneurs. under this, e-commerce training will be given to five thousand new entrepreneurs. about 3,500 entrepreneurs have already been trained (bangla tribune, 2021). ensure e-commerce trust & transparency: the government is about to launch four new initiatives aimed at restoring trust and transparency in the e-commerce business. unique company identity numbers for all online and facebook-based firms, a common complaint management system, a central logistic tracking system, and an interoperable digital transaction platform are the four efforts (the daily star, 2022). shemeansbusiness: shemeansbusiness is a program in collaboration with government, international organizations and private sectors institutions for promoting women economic empowerment through facebook’s long term commitment. on the international women’s day in 2016, it was launched firstly for supporting digital female entrepreneurs. figure 1. working area by september 2020 source: shemeansbusiness website meta (facebook) is has launched a campaign named #buyfromher to inspire people to buy from local women on facebook and instagram. shemeansbusiness is launched in bangladesh in 2022 in partnership with –  ict division’s a2i program  bangladesh women’s chamber of commerce and industry (bwcci)  lightcastle partners figure 2. launching meeting of shemeansbusiness in bangladesh source: bwcci website role of institutions (we, e-cab, bwcci) that influence women to become successful e-commerce entrepreneur women and e-commerce forum (we) the biggest platform of women entrepreneurs on facebook, women and e-commerce forum (we) launched in 2017. at present, the number of members of this page is more than 11 lakh. in the pandemic situation, about 1 million women joined the group. of these, 4 lakh entrepreneurs who do not have a page joined women and e-commerce forum (we) during the covid-19. the current member of facebook group of women and e-commerce forum (we) is more than 1 million (bdpratidin, 2021). women & e-commerce forum (we) addresses the needs of these female entrepreneurs. we’s goal is to help the female e-commerce entrepreneurs to sustain their businesses and empower them. the role of women and e-commerce forum for empowering women is given below; operating in 38 markets training 1 million women having global network of 40 community partners mimi et al., american economic & social review 9(1) (2022), 17-28 21  this organization works with local product because it wants to create self-independent women and promote local business.  this organization works with leaders of bangladesh e-commerce industry for making women aware about ecommerce.  it organizes different seminars, workshops, round tables, webinars and other programs.  for promoting local products and local businesses, this organization arranges different fairs.  it has software through which the member can attend training programs and this app also works with delivery system. figure 3. we logo source: we website women and e-commerce forum has members from all over the country. numbers of members from different divisions are given below; table 1. division wise we member list division member dhaka 82500 chottogram 20100 rajshahi 4700 sylhet 4700 khulna 4200 rangpur 2600 mymensingh 2300 barishal 2200 source: we facebook group e-commerce association of bangladesh (e-cab) according to e-cab, an e-commerce business organization, e-commerce has generated at least tk 3,000 crores in just eight months. the number of members of the organization is now about 1400. besides, more than three hundred new members have been added during the pandemic. the business growth of many e-commerce companies has doubled in recent years because of changed customer habits and increased online reliance during pandemic. (news24bd, 2021). figure 4. e-cab logo source: e-cab website e-commerce association of bangladesh (e-cab) is devoted to the development of the bangladeshi e-commerce sector. it has been created to address the existing problems of e-commerce to ensure its growth. it also aims to serve as a common platform for women to provide them support and assistance. they undertake different activities including research, publication, training, workshop, seminars, etc., for the improvement of women in the e-commerce sector. in the time of the pandemic, they undertake so many initiatives for women e-commerce entrepreneurs to survive in those crises. healthcare helpline: a special health care helpline has been launched to allay the fears of e-cab member organizations and their staff regarding corona. through this, some doctors give health advice. safety training is provided for companies that have launched services. mimi et al., american economic & social review 9(1) (2022), 17-28 22 online registration system: e-cab member organizations should be able to pay their renewal fee at home and become an e-cab member without coming to the e-cab office. that is why the e-cab registration system has been brought online. reduce delivery obstacles: some women entrepreneurs face difficulties in terms of product delivery during pandemics. e-cab's president, secretary, and others have worked directly to remove those obstacles. arrange loan & investment: in consultation with prime bank, e-cab has already provided loans to some women to run their business smoothly. citibank and brac's prospect project have already been added to the process. the work of raising credit and investment continues by connecting more financial institutions. arrange seminar, webinar & workshop: e-cab has organized several seminars and webinars jointly and individually. these include joint seminars with robi, vat seminars, joint webinars with paynair and amazon, etc. thousands of entrepreneurs have benefited during the coronation of online trainings and workshops. so far, 5,000 trainees have taken part in various trainings of e-cab. bangladesh women chamber of commerce and industry (bwcci) with the slogan "progressive women, prosperous bangladesh", the bangladesh women chamber of commerce and industry (bwcci) was founded in june 2001 with the goal of encouraging and strengthening women's engagement in the private sector as entrepreneurs by fostering a women-friendly business environment. the primary aims of the bwcci are to mobilize economic growth among bangladesh's urban and rural women, to assure women's strong voice in all fields of economic and political activity, and to lead the country toward progress via economic, political, and social empowerment of women. they offer a variety of services to their members such as;  training on women's business growth and skill-based training.  promotion of a business online.  preparedness for a bank loan.  services for business counseling.  product promotion.  participation in trade shows.  progressive bwcci awards. figure 5. bwcci logo source: bwcci website objectives the major objective of this paper is to discover the role of government of bangladesh and different institutions for attracting and empowering bangladeshi women through e-commerce. the specific objective is to discover division wise women participation in ecommerce, governmental support to inspire women in this sector, training programs organized by different organizations, knowledge regarding different legal issues, domain and intellectual properties. the consequences will impact on the economy of bangladesh by empowering women through e-commerce. the paper identifies the challenges and recommendations regarding different initiatives and actions of government and institutions for providing women of bangladesh a shining future through e-commerce. methodology this paper was written using both quantitative and qualitative methods. women e-commerce entrepreneurs that operate their firms through various online platforms make up the study's demographic. the non-probabilistic sampling approach was used to calculate the sample size from this population, which was set at 100 users. this non-probabilistic sampling strategy enables for the selection of actual female e-commerce entrepreneurs rather than randomly selecting respondents who are not the target respondents. there are two types of data collecting, according to hox and boejje (2005): primary and secondary. this research is based on both primary and secondary data. a questionnaire is meant to acquire primary data from the sample population since the document contains both qualitative and quantitative information. secondary data was gathered from a variety of websites, books, organizations, papers, and women's e-commerce experts. mimi et al., american economic & social review 9(1) (2022), 17-28 23 result and discussion division wise succesful women e-commerce entrepreneur figure 6. division wise succesful women e-commerce entrepreneur source: author's compilation figure 6 shows that most of the successful women e-commerce entrepreneur (almost half of the total) are living in dhaka division (45%) according to the data given by respondents. chattogram division (13%) is the second in the list, followed by rajshahi division (10%). the last five position occupied by khulna division (9%), sylhet division (9%), rangpur division (6%), barishal division (6%) and mymensingh division (2%) respectively. to analyze this data, total sale, number of order per week, income range in a month, facebook page reach etc. are taken into consideration. in dhaka division most of the entrepreneur are from dhaka district in which maximum resides in uttara, dhanmondi, mirpur area. the other are form gazipur, narayangonj, rajbari, tangail, madaripur district. there are some reasons behind this to explain why dhaka division has more successful entrepreneurs than other divisions. the reasons are, people or customer are knowledgeable and well-informed about e-commerce, technological abundance, good and fast internet connection, proximity to raw materials, faster and better delivery service, and deliver the products in compliance with hygiene rules. financial sources to start-up figure 7. financial sources to start-up source: author's compilation for e-commerce it is not compulsory to maintain legal issue and physical shop is not also required. as a result it creates the opportunity to start e-commerce with little investment. the survey reveals that 97% respondents ensure that they started their e-commerce from personal savings where 22% respondents used the money from family and friends. according to the figure 7, it is found that 12% respondents took business loan to start this e-commerce entrepreneurship. although a woman can start an online business with a small amount of money, there are still many problems. firstly, it becomes almost impossible for women to get a loan without having property in their own name, or without having as much. as a result, women are one step behind. secondly, it is difficult to run a business with the amount of money that women get on bank loans. thirdly, the last hope is the money they have in their hands or some money received from the family. as a result, very few women can express themselves as an entrepreneur. governmental support figure 8. governmental support source: author's compilation mimi et al., american economic & social review 9(1) (2022), 17-28 24 government are supporting to encourage women empowerment through e-commerce through different initiatives with the help of ministry of information and communication technology (ict), bangladesh bank and other governmental institutions. but according to the figure 8, it is found that 88% of the respondents did not get any governmental support when they started e-commerce entrepreneurship. only 12% respondents received governmental support. women who don't receive governmental support, most of them are from rural areas. they are deprived of the necessary facilities due to lack of knowledge about government support and facilities. so, they want to make a profit using other means. training programs figure 9. training programs source: author's compilation while covid-19 is creating complications and challenges, it is also creating opportunities to transform digitally. different online training for women e-commerce entrepreneurs is organized by different government and non-government institutions. women and e-commerce forum (we) organizes different master class and training session for these women during the pandemic period. according to the figure 9, it is found that 56% of the respondent took different training session to start their business or to enhance their business. they are trained on online marketing, delivery system, payment method, customer service and pricing method. however, it is also noted that 44% of respondents had no training. they started their business with their knowledge of business. through these training people many women got the opportunity to expand their businesses and selling multiple product line. legal issue (trademark) figure 10. legal issue (trademark) source: author's compilation trade license provides the permission to sellers to sell their product in a particular area. trade license is provided by the government agencies and without trade license, commercial activities become illegal. according to the figure 10, only 8% of the respondents have trade license where government is planning to make trade license compulsory for ecommerce. among the respondent, the majority (92%) don’t have any legal issue like trade license. business can never be carried forward without a trade license. an entrepreneur must show a trade license when sending a product out of the country. again, when the entrepreneur wants to do any training or want to receive governmental support, she has to show the trade license. but most of the women don’t have this because they are not properly aware of this. domain/ intellectual property issues figure 11. domain/ intellectual issues source: author's compilation there are different types of intellectual property like copyrights, patents, trademarks and others. copyright protects database and website design where trademark protects business name, product name, logo etc. for e-commerce based mimi et al., american economic & social review 9(1) (2022), 17-28 25 business intellectual property (ip) is considered one of the valuable assets which enhance the value of e-commerce business s. according to the figure 11, it is represented that 85% of the respondents don’t have any intellectual property. but 5% respondents has domain where 5% respondents has trademarks. some of the respondents have copyright and the percentage is only 5%. it is very important to buy a domain for the website. many times it is seen that the business may have gained popularity, but when go to open the website, it is seen that someone else has already taken the domain with this name. as a result, it is important to confirm the domain name of the organization, at least buy the domain even if do not plan to open the website now. most of the women online entrepreneurs don’t think about future so they don’t buy any domain or intellectual property. conclusion and policy recommendation today, men as well as women are contributing equally to the development of bangladesh. women are proving their skills in different professions. the government is also determined to take the women community forward. in this situation, if women do not get the help of the people concerned, their way forward will be blocked and the steps of the government will be hampered. the government is encouraging women to come forward at all levels, we need the cooperation of all levels of society and the state. the following policy recommendations could be helpful for the government of the people’s republic of bangladesh for mitigating their challenges and making this sector more profitable. the policies are;  there is no way to solve the lack of capital without capital. the business needs to be started with the money saved in this field and the money received from the family. after starting the business, the business can be expanded with a bank loan.  in many ways, government can support without direct funding such as simple policies, tax exemptions, easy business space, capital assistance, assistance in transportation of goods or assistance in finding buyers.  for receiving sme bank loan or ict grant, there are 3 things must do first. o trade license o tin certificate o a bank account in the name of business if they don't have these 3 things first, they can't apply for any government support, so it is required to make everyone interested to accept them.  for creating a shining future for the women e-commerce entrepreneurs in our country, it is required to take proper initiatives regarding the training program and financial or other support like export and courier service, workshop, soft skill training, master class etc. to make them more confident.  entrepreneurs need to handle e-mail, social media, online traffic, sms service, telephone call etc. so women need to follow appropriate verification process likeone time password, biometrics. single sign in, two factor authentication and other procedures which provide the accurate information about their identity verification and protect their e-commerce site.  as the women participation is increasing in the e-commerce sector dramatically, it is required a legal framework to enhance the online transactions regardingelectronic contracting, dispute resolution, intellectual property, cybercrime, consumer protection and other aspects. when a women starts online working, it is normal for her to have various fears in the first place. no matter how skilled and qualified she is in that work. and in that case she needs more support. it could be from people close to you, maybe from some other entrepreneur. appropriate laws and policies should be formulated to remove obstacles including personal assistance, institutional assistance, banking assistance, interest free loan assistance etc. author contributions: conceptualization, a.m., m.a.i., t.h.b. and m.s.r.; data curation, a.m., m.a.i., t.h.b. and m.s.r.; methodology, a.m. and m.a.i.; validation, a.m. and m.a.i.; visualization, a.m. and m.a.i.; formal analysis, a.m. and m.a.i.; investigation, a.m. and m.a.i.; resources, a.m. and m.a.i.; writing – original draft, a.m. and m.a.i.; writing – review & editing, a.m. and m.a.i.; supervision, a.m. and m.a.i.; software, a.m. and m.a.i.; project administration, a.m. and m.a.i.; funding acquisition, a.m., m.a.i., t.h.b. and m.s.r. authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript. institutional review board statement: ethical review and approval were waived for this study, due to that the research does not deal with vulnerable groups or sensitive issues. funding: the authors received no direct funding for this research. informed consent statement: informed consent was obtained from all subjects involved in the study. data availability statement: the data presented in this study are available on request from the corresponding author. the data are not publicly available due to restrictions. conflicts of interest: the authors declare no conflict of interest. references afroze, t., alam, m. k., akther, e., & jui, n. s. 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(2021b). an analysis on the effects of coronavirus (covid-19) on the financial management of multinational corporations. australian finance & banking review, 5(1), 43-53. https://doi.org/10.46281/afbr.v5i1.1015 publisher’s note: cribfb stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. © 2022 by the authors. licensee cribfb, usa. this article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution (cc by) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). american economic & social review (p-issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277) by cribfb is licensed under a creative commons attribution 4.0 international license. https://doi.org/10.35741/issn.0258-2724.56.3.47 https://doi.org/10.35741/issn.0258-2724.56.3.47 https://doi.org/10.46281/afbr.v5i1.1015 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ american economic & social review 10(1) (2022), 1-10 1 economic & social review aesr vol 10 no 1 (2022) p-issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 available online at https://www.cribfb.com journal homepage: https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr published by cribfb, usa impact of social media on students’ academic performance: a case study of islamic university, bangladesh md. kamal uddin (a)1 md. nazmul huda (b ) md. jafor ali (c) md. shahbub alam (d) abul bashar bhuiyan (e) (a) assistant professor, dept. of accounting & information systems, islamic university, kushtia, bangladesh; e-mail: uddinkamal1983.ku@gmail.com (b) assistant professor, dept. of accounting & information systems, islamic university, kushtia, bangladesh; e-mail: nazmuliu07@gmail.com (c) assistant professor, dept. of accounting & information systems, islamic university, kushtia, bangladesh; e-mail: jaforkb@gmail.com (d) assistant professor, dept. of accounting & information systems, islamic university, kushtia, bangladesh; e-mail: shahbub.ais07@gmail.com (e) associate professor, faculty of business and accountancy, university selangor (unisel), shah alam, malaysia; e-mail: bashariuk@gmail.com a r t i c l e i n f o article history: received: 1st september 2022 accepted: 1st november 2022 online publication: 6th november 2022 keywords: social networking site, igen, advisory cell, academic performance jel classification codes: c12, c83, c88, i29 a b s t r a c t social media is a globally known and widely used means of social communication that has brought most people very close in today's world especially the z generation or igen who are more familiar and attracted to this medium. among them are university students who mostly prefer to spend time on it and as a result, it might have either positive or negative effects on their academic studies. the current study aims to investigate the effect of social media on the academic performance of university students in bangladesh. a well-structured questionnaire is used to collect data from 150 students of islamic university, kushtia, bangladesh and they are selected based on a convenient sampling procedure. both descriptive and inferential statistics are applied to analyze the data. the study found that 73% of students engaged in social media for non-academic purposes and most of them visited the facebook site. the study also found that the majority of the students visit social networking sites at home, and in residential halls, while most of them spend time on average more than four hours daily, and mostly from 6.00 pm to 6.00 am. the study reveals that time spent on social media and excessive usage of social media negatively impacts students’ academic performance. the study recommends that parents, teachers, and students’ advisor in the university guide and monitor students properly so that they can’t misuse social media. © 2022 by the authors. licensee cribfb, usa. this article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution (cc by) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). introduction social media is a great information and communication technology and it becomes popular globally as a tool of social communication. this is a platform to share people's ideas, views, and opinions and exchange information with others in a global community using various networking sites such as facebook, whatsapp, twitter, youtube, etc. (khalid, 2017). users like to access the sites as they are user friendly, easy, and effective (azizi, soroush, & khatony, 2019). its usage has increased exponentially among the youth especially among the igen or more specifically students who have made social media their daily companion (celestine & nonyelum, 2018). social media explores a lot of windows for students to use them for learning purposes in acquiring and enriching knowledge, however if they are not carefully utilized, students can get addicted and it can have an adverse impact towards their academic performance. through various social media, and networking sites students are getting more privileges in terms of gathering knowledge compared to their predecessors in obtaining information (kolan & dzandza, 2018). some of them do not utilize the privileges appropriately and they rather spend more time on social media for chatting, gossiping, recreation, or entertainment purposes that negatively impact students’ academic performance (peter, 2015). 1corresponding author: orcid id: 0000-0003-1679-045x © 2022 by the authors. hosting by cribfb. peer review under responsibility of cribfb, usa. https://doi.org/10.46281/aesr.v10i1.1822 to cite this article: uddin, m. k., huda, m. n., ali, m. j., alam, m. s., & bhuiyan, a. b. (2022). impact of social media on students’ academic performance: a case study of islamic university, bangladesh. american economic & social review, 10(1), 1-10. https://doi.org/10.46281/aesr.v10i1.1822 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) https://doi.org/10.46281/aesr.v10i1.1822 https://doi.org/10.46281/aesr.v10i1.1822 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1679-045x https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5501-3218 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7929-7940 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4218-2426 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1763-124x uddin et al., american economic & social review 10(1) (2022), 1-10 2 the issue of social media usage is a common phenomenon among university students. in the present time, students heavily keep in touch with modern technology and visit social networking sites to the extent that the excessive usage dually influences their academic performance (talaue, alsaad, alrushaidan, alhugail, & alfahhad, 2018). sometimes the addiction to social media to some degree causes serious consequences on students' academic life (kolan & dzandza, 2018). a study conducted by the institute of health economics at university of dhaka reveals that 88% of students’ academic activities are being adversely affected by the excessive usage of social media. the study finds that students who are spending too much time on social media are spending less time to their studies (thedailystar, 2018). the director-general of national academy for educational management (naem) remarks that students are busy for hours and even all night long on mobile internet and social media. they don’t want to go to the institutions in next morning. hossain (2020) opines in dhaka tribune, an online news portal in bangladesh that facebook is one of the distracting form of social media which keep away students from assignments and homework. even in the classroom students are spending time on social media so that they don’t understand class lectures properly. it ultimately affects their examination, and eventually ended up with a lower cgpa. the trends of social media usage among university students are growing rapidly. this has both positive and negative impact on students' academic performance. it is mostly observed that students remain out of the study and become addicted to social media. this problem affects their academic performance while at the same time hinder the flourishing of talent properly. the continuation of social media addiction causes threats to university students’ academic performance, and their future as well as the nation as a whole. time spent on social media and its usage affects academic activities that consequently impact students' academic performance. this is a contemporary issue that needs to be addressed. how does the usage of social media affect students' academic performance? in this regard, the current study aims to investigate the effect of social media on academic performance of university students in bangladesh. the remaining part of the study covers the literature review, material and methods, results, discussions, and conclusions. literature review the extant literature regarding social media and its impact on students' academic performance have been focusing largely in the western countries and very limited on issues involving students in bangladesh. bajpai and maneesha (2018) state that students extensively used whatsapp, linkedin, instagram, snapchat, google plus, or youtube-like social media to connect themselves with friends and family, sharing academic information for study purposes, entertaining, or other reasons. saha and guha (2019) conduct a descriptive study on undergraduate students to investigate how they spend time on social media. the study finds that 57% of students spent at least 2 hours or less, and 28% spent 2 to 4 hours daily on average. the study reveals that students are busy with facebook sites updating their status as well as following others' statuses and updates. kolan and dzandza (2018) opine that the usage of the social media sites distracts the attention of students from studies that consequently affect their academic life. descriptive analysis of the paper finds that 50.30% of students spent more than 2 hours on social networking sites. the study shows that only 17.5% of students use social media for academic purposes and 82.5% use it for chatting, watching videos, or downloading pictures. jahan (2019) analyses the impact of social media on academic performance among private university students in bangladesh through descriptive analysis. the descriptive results of the study discloses that 84.7% of students used facebook and the remaining were on twitter and instagram. among the students, 36% spent 0 to 2 hours, 26% more than 2 but less than 3 hours, and 38% more than 3 hours. the study also finds that 89% of students use social media for non-academic purports. the study reveals that time spent on social media has a negative and significant relationship with academic performance. sivakumar (2020) conduct a similar type of descriptive study on secondary level students in the cuddalore district. the study reveals that the percentage of students using facebook, and whatsapp were 44% & 35.6% respectively whereas 39% of students spent up to two hours and 49.8% for four hours on the media. the study finds that 80% of the students visit social networking sites for their academic purposes. rahman and mithun (2021) explore the effect of social media use on the academic performance of the students of bangladesh agricultural university. the study was confined to descriptive statistics, and graphical presentations. the descriptive analysis of the study finds that 94% of students used social media for non-academic activities and the remaining is for academic purposes. the study also reveals that most of the students are engaged on facebook followed by youtube, instagram, linkedin, and twitter. othman, apandi, and ngah (2017) identified that facebook, and whatsapp are the most widely used social media by students. the study finds that 46% of students spend 1 to 3 hours, and 20% spend more than four hours on the networking sites. the inferential analysis finds that there is no significant relationship between social media usage and academic performance. the study observes that social media may negatively impact the students' academic performance if they do not use it wisely i.e., sharing and discussing academic issues. laburi, navulla, and yamini (2019) remark that the new generations are using social media as a playground. the study finds that the percentage of students who are engaged in whatsapp, facebook, and linkedin are 16%, 9.5%, and 13.5% respectively. the result of the correlation shows that time spent on social media is highly associated with the academic performance of students. the paper concludes that the positive practices of social media improve students' knowledge of human behavior, and social intelligence; negative practices make them indignant, materialistic, addicted to any bad things, and deviated from personal development. owusu-acheaw and larson (2015) conduct a study on the effect of social media usage on academic performance among tertiary institutions students. the result of the descriptive analysis disclose that 66.4% and 20% of students used facebook and whatsapp respectively and spent time on social media on average half an hour to three hours daily through smartphones. moreover, 93.6% of students used social media for chatting and downloading purposes, and only 9.4% spent time on academic activities. the inferential analysis i.e., correlation analysis reveals that time spent and social media usages uddin et al., american economic & social review 10(1) (2022), 1-10 3 have a positive and strong association with academic performance. the study also reveals that time spent on social media negatively affects students' academic work. the study recommends that students should engage themselves to substitute such hours reading novels, collecting study material or resources, retaining information, and improving the knowledge that may assist them academically. rithika and selvaraj (2013) state social media like facebook, orkut, twitter, etc., divert students' minds from studies. students are spending time more on social media to connect with classmates, friends, and people by chatting or gossiping rather than sharing academic issues. this means losing interest in learning and retaining information. the study uses pearson chi-square to investigate the effects of social media on students' academic performance and the result reveals that social media usage significantly affects academic activities like late submission of assignments, class performance, etc. the study also reveals that time spent on social media significantly impact academic performance. shohrowardhy and hassan (2014) discover that students are visiting social networking sites for a little proportion of academic usage. students are driving more on entertainment needs followed by social needs. there is a moderately significant relationship between social media and the academic performance of students (tamayo & cruz, 2014). boateng and amankwaa (2016) analyzed the impact of social media on student academic life in higher education. the study presents that 60% of total respondents regularly visit facebook, and whatsapp proportionately. the results of the descriptive analysis show that the usage of social media positively affect students' academic life. the study concludes that the development of social media is significantly affecting the students' academic life. for this reason, institutions are trying hard to take advantage of social media and using it as a platform to connect with stakeholders like instructors, students, and higher authorities for skill development, knowledge construction and collaboration. oueder and abousaber (2018) analyzed social media usage and its relationship with academic performance among tabuk university (saudi arabia) students. descriptive analysis of the paper reveals that social media plays a vital role in the enhancement of communication between students and course teachers that assist in improving students' academic performance positively. mensah and nizam (2016) conduct a study on malaysian tertiary institutions to examine the impact of the use of social media on students' academic performance. inferential analysis of the study reveals that time appropriateness, peoplefriend connection, nature of usage and health addiction are strongly correlated and significantly impact students' academic performance while time duration and security/privacy problems are not correlated and significant. the study recommended that universities and colleges in malaysia should take initiative in educating their students on the positive use of social media platforms for educational purposes and it eventually results in a positive effect on their academic performance. oberiri (2017) states that social media has brought a huge change to the planet in respect of communication with the means of information and communication technology (ict). students have adopted new technology with the time. this adoption and addiction influence students' academic activities. after reviewing the above-related pieces of literature it is found that most of the studies emphasize on descriptive approach in investigating the impact of social media usage on the academic performance of students at secondary/higher/tertiary levels abroad (boateng & amankwaa, 2016; kolan & dzandza, 2018; oberiri, 2017; owusuacheaw & larson, 2015; ravichandran, 2019; sivakumar, 2020; talaue et al., 2018; zewdu, dadi, taye, & gezu, 2017). the investigated result in the descriptive approach varies one with another. very few empirical studies were found abroad but it was confined to pearson chi-square, correlation or factor analysis (laburi et al., 2019; mensah & nizam, 2016; othman et al., 2017; shohrowardhy & hassan, 2014). some of these studies state that time spending and social media usage have a significant association and negative/positive effect on students' academic performance and some others found an insignificant association with academic performance. few related works have been done in bangladesh. but such studies also used descriptive statistics like frequency, mean, percentage, tabular and graphical presentation in data analysis (rahman & mithun, 2021; saha & guha, 2019). the studies did not follow or develop any conceptual research model. hence, it is pertinent to be mentioned that there are some limitations or gaps in previous research. to overcome the limitations, the current study is designed both in a descriptive and empirical approach to investigate the impact of social media usage on the academic performance of undergraduate and graduate students in bangladesh. materials and methods this is a quantitative research approach. the present study has been conducted on the students of islamic university, kushtia, bangladesh. 150 students were selected on a convenient sampling basis from eight (08) faculties of islamic university, kushtia bangladesh. the study is based on primary data and it was collected from the undergraduate, and postgraduate students through a well-structured questionnaire. the questionnaire contains respondents' demographic profile, social media constructs, social media usage, and effects on academic performance. due to the pandemic situation, the questionnaire was set in google form and a link was given to the respondents for expedient responses. the questionnaire was developed in both close-ended forms with multiple options and with a 5point likert scale from strongly disagree to strongly agree, whereas, 1= strongly disagree, 2= disagree, 3= neutral, 4= agree, and 5= strongly agree. collected raw data were edited, coded, classified, and tabulated for analyzing purposes. all data were processed with the help of the ms office package and statistical package for social science (spss 24). data were converted into numerical code before feeding into the software. both descriptive and inferential statistics were applied to analyze the data. descriptive statistics include frequency distribution, percentage, mean, and standard deviation. inferential statistics include pearson's correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis, anova, and f-statistics for the significance. in analyzing data, students' academic performance (sap) is considered a dependent variable. time spent, usages of social media and uddin et al., american economic & social review 10(1) (2022), 1-10 4 academic activities i.e., class performance (cp), study performance (sp) and course work (cw) are considered independent variables. research model and hypothesis in the current study, it has been conceptualized that the factors like time spent and social media usage's effects on academic activities including class performance, study performance, and course work, have a significant relationship with and impact on students' academic performance. the following research model has been developed by the researchers to investigate the effect of social media on academic performances of university students. figure 1. conceptual research model social media social media has brought most people very close in today's world. it is a globally known and widely used means of social communication. especially those who are z generation or igen are more familiar with this medium. social media is a webbased technological application that allows users to share their content and participate in social networking (leyrer-jackson & wilson, 2018). it provides an environment that is conducive for interaction among the different levels of users like friends, family, teachers, and professionals (kapoor et al., 2018). social media constructs refer to students’ using device, available internet pack, their preference to social networking sites like facebook, twitter, instagram, whatsapp, skype, and linkedin, and the browsing location of such sites. time spent on social media and effects on students' academic performance time spent on social media measures the amount of time on average the users/students visit the social networking sites for their interactions relating to study or chatting or video downloading etc. it becomes an ever-present part of current life-style. students are scrolling on social media without fixing time in daily life. laburi et al. (2019) state that time spent on social media is highly associated with students' academic performance. time spent on social media negatively affects students' academic performance (owusu-acheaw & larson, 2015; rithika & selvaraj, 2013). h1: there is a relationship between time spent on social media and students' academic performance. h2: time spent on social media has a negative impact on students’ academic performance. social media usages and its effects on academic activities of students social media usage refers to online active behaviors that expedite direct interactions among people. such online behaviors include liking/disliking, commenting, sending/receiving messages, and otherwise involving with other users (verduyn, ybarra, résibois, jonides, & kross, 2017). students regularly visit social networking sites in their academic life that may or may not affect academic activities. it either positively or negatively affects academic results. kolan and dzandza (2018) state that the usage of the social media sites divert the attention of students from studies that eventually affect their academic activities. academic activities include class performance consisting of routine class as well as special attention in class, course works like assignments, class tests; study performances like routine study schedule and time management. h3: there is a relationship between social media usage's effects on students’ academic activities and academic performance. social media usages effects on academic performance of students students' success or failure is mostly judged by or relied on their academic performances throughout their academic life. the parameter of a judgment of academic performance contains the results of tutorial or in-course tests, results of semester final exam, and cumulative average earned grade points during the study period. students’ engagement in social media is significantly or insignificantly associated with academic performance. social media usage affects students' academic performance either positively or negatively. students who use social media excessively are more likely to perform very poorly in their academic work than those who don't. students who frequently visit social media sites for non-academic purposes acquire lower gpa (grade point average) than those who rarely or sometimes visit the platforms (javaeed, jeelani, gulab, & ghauri, 2020; ravichandran, 2019; zewdu et al., 2017). h4: usages of social media have a negative impact on students’ academic performance. h1 h2 h3 time spent in social media (ts) usage effects in academic activities (cp, sp, cw) h4 students’ academic performance (sap) social media  facebook  twitter  instagram  whatsapp  skype  linkedin uddin et al., american economic & social review 10(1) (2022), 1-10 5 results respondents’ demographic information gender, age, faculty, level of students, and belonging of year are considered as the demographical variables of the students. demographical information is presented in the following tabular form: table 1. demographic information of respondents variables/characteristics categories frequency percentage gender male 99 66% female 51 34% age 18-21 63 42% 22-25 84 56% 25+ 3 2% faculty business administration 66 44% science 31 21% engineering and technology 18 12% biological science 6 4% social science 14 9% arts 9 6% law 3 2% theology and islamic studies 3 2% level of students undergraduate 133 89% graduate 17 11% belong of year 1st year 39 26% 2nd year 46 31% 3rd year 27 18% final year 21 14% masters 17 11% source: field survey table 1 represents the demographic information of students who have been selected for the study. among the respondents the higher proportion of participants in the study are male students; half of the respondents' age is between 1821 years and the remaining half are above 22 years. out of the total respondents, 65% are from the faculty of business administration & science, and the remaining 35% are from the rest of six faculties of the university. the majority of the students are from the undergraduate level, most of them are first year to the third year and a quarter portion from final year and masters students who participated in attending the questionnaire of the study. social media constructs social media constructs are stated in the following tabular form with the interpretation: table 2. social media constructs characteristics categories frequency percentage kinds of device computer/laptop 10 7% smart phone 130 87% tablet 2 1% above all 8 5% social network sites mostly prefer facebook 122 81% twitter 1 1% instagram 1 1% whatsapp 23 15% skype 1 1% linkedin 2 1% location of browsing hall 48 32% central library 3 2% faculties 6 4% home/resident 93 62% source: field survey table 2 represents the constructs of social media. the table shows that 87% of students are using smartphones followed by personal computer (pc) and tab for 7% and 1% respectively. students mostly prefer to visit facebook (81%) followed by whatsapp (15%), instagram (1%), linkedin (1%), twitter (1%) and skype (1%). 94% of students prefer to access social media from home and residential hall, and the rest 6% use social media at their faculty or central library of the university. assessment of social media usage the current study assesses students' social media usages based on their responses. table 3 presents the evaluation of students' social media usage performance and it represents the first research objective of the current study: uddin et al., american economic & social review 10(1) (2022), 1-10 6 table 3. assessment of the students’ social media usage variables/characteristics categories frequency percentage time of visiting social media 12.00 am – 6.00 am 80 53% 6.01 am – 12.00 pm 10 7% 12.01 pm – 6.00 pm 18 12% 6.01 pm -11.59 pm 42 28% daily hours spent on average 4 hours plus 38 25% 4 hours 17 11% 3 hours 30 20% 2 hours 29 19% 1 hour or less 36 24% motives for using social media educational 38 25% recreation and entertainment 24 16% chatting or gossiping 78 52% communicate with family and relatives 7 5% communicating with teachers/class fellow 3 2% source: field survey the table above shows that 81% of students choose to visit social media from evening to late at night from 6.00 pm to 6.00 am. 56% of students spend more than 3 hours daily on average on social media. among the students, only 27% use social media for their academic purposes and 73% for non-academic purposes. assessment of the impact of social media on students’ academic performance the impact of social media on students’ academic performance is analyzed by applying inferential statistics. inferential statistics include reliability test, multicollinearity test, pearson's correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis, and anova test to answer the research questions and fulfill the objectives of the study. reliability of the data cronbach's alpha is used to check the reliability of data for the analysis. the overall score in all of the variables is 0.866, which is a good indication of the satisfactory reliability of the chosen data. the alpha value of 0.8 or higher is considered acceptable in conducting further analysis of data to carry on the study (cho & kim, 2015). table 4. reliability statistics cronbach's alpha cronbach's alpha based on standardized items n of items .866 .867 11 source: spss output correlation analysis table 5 presents the results of the correlation between students' academic activities and their academic performance: table 5. correlations between students’ academic activities and performance sap cp sp cw ts sap pearson correlation 1 .513** .535** .663** .126 sig. (2-tailed) .000 .000 .000 .126 n 150 150 150 150 150 cp pearson correlation .513** 1 .515** .433** -.024 sig. (2-tailed) .000 .000 .000 .770 n 150 150 150 150 150 sp pearson correlation .535** .515** 1 .607** -.012 sig. (2-tailed) .000 .000 .000 .886 n 150 150 150 150 150 cw pearson correlation .663** .433** .607** 1 .154 sig. (2-tailed) .000 .000 .000 .061 n 150 150 150 150 150 ts pearson correlation .126 -.024 -.012 .154 1 sig. (2-tailed) .126 .770 .886 .061 n 150 150 150 150 150 **. correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). source: spss output the results in table 5 of pearson's correlation statistics indicate that course work (.663), study performance (.535) and class performances (.513) of the students are significantly correlated with academic performance, whereas time spent on social media (.126) is moderately correlated with academic performance. uddin et al., american economic & social review 10(1) (2022), 1-10 7 multiple regression analysis table 6 presents the explanatory power of the regression model used in this study. the dependent variable of the model is students' academic performance (sap) and the independent variables (predictors) are time spent on social media (ts), study performance (sp), course performance (cp), and course work (cw). the r square indicates that the independent variables explain 51% of the variation in the dependent variables. table 6. model summary model r r square adjusted r square std. error of the estimate durbinwatson 1 .716a .513 .499 .63375 1.776 a. predictors: (constant), ts, sp, cp, cw b. dependent variable: sap table 7 shows the overall significance of the model and it shows that the regression model is statistically significant and fits as the p-value is less than 0.05. table 7. model significance (anova) model sum of squares df mean square f sig. 1 regression 61.309 4 15.327 38.162 .000b residual 58.237 145 .402 total 119.546 149 source: spss output table 8 represents the coefficients of regression. in the table, the collinearity statistics shows that the variance inflation factor (vif) value for cp, sp, cw and ts are 1.411, 1.827, 1.709 & 1.046 respectively which is less than 2.5 and which means that there is no multicollinearity problem among the variables (johnston, jones, & manley, 2018). table 8. coefficients of regression model unstandardized coefficients standardized coefficients t sig. collinearity statistics b std. error beta tolerance vif 1 (constant) .296 .363 .816 .416 cp .273 .076 .246 3.580 .000 .709 1.411 sp .143 .092 .122 1.552 .123 .547 1.827 cw .465 .074 .473 6.247 .000 .585 1.709 ts .088 .086 .060 1.017 .311 .956 1.046 dependent variable: sap source: spss output the usage of social media affects academic activities positively related to students' academic performance. the calculated p-value of cp at the 5% level of significance is .000 which is lower than 0.05 which means it is statistically significant. the usage effect of social media on class performance has a positive and significant relationship with students' academic performance. the calculated p-value of sp (0.123) is higher than 0.05 at the 5% level of significance. it means that it is not statistically significant. thus, the social media usage effects on study performance have a positive but insignificant relationship with students' academic performance. the result of the p-value for cw (0.000) being lower than 0.05 indicates that the usage of social media in regular coursework has a positive and significant relationship with students' academic performance. the calculated p-value of ts (0.311) is higher than 0.05 which means time spent on social media has a positive but insignificant relationship with students' academic performance. one way anova test anova test is applied here to test hypotheses 2 & 4 as well as to meet the specific objectives of the study. table 9. anova for time spent negatively impacts academic performance sum of squares df mean square f sig. between groups 18.776 4 4.694 6.757 .000 within groups 100.732 145 .695 total 119.508 149 source: spss output uddin et al., american economic & social review 10(1) (2022), 1-10 8 the table 9 shows that time spent on social media has a negative impact on students' academic performance. the f-statistics calculated value is 6.757 and the p-value is 0.000 which is less than 0.05 at the 5% level of significance. this means that the hypothesis is statistically significant. so students are spending more time on social media which negatively affects their academic performance. table 10. anova for usage of social media negatively impact on academic performance sum of squares df mean square f sig. between groups 130.722 12 10.893 37.480 .000 within groups 39.818 137 .291 total 170.540 149 source: spss output table 10 shows that usage of social media has a negative impact on students' academic performance. the fstatistics calculated value is 37.480 and the p-value is 0.000 which is less than 0.05 at the 5% level of significance. this means that the hypothesis is statistically significant. that is, students' excessive usage of social media has a negative and significant effect on academic performance. discussions the majority of students acquire and own smartphones and used wi-fi as a means of internet connection. students are addicted to facebook sites followed by whatsapp and others. they frequently visit and spend more time on facebook. they prefer to scroll messenger on regular basis chatting with friends and family. students prefer to access social media from home and hall rather than their faculty or the central library of the university. the reason for the higher rate of access to social media in the hall and home is because of the free wi-fi facilities that they can access. students choose to visit social media from evening to late at night from 6.00 pm to 6.00 am. two third of the students under study spend on average more than three hours and one-third spend two hours or less daily on social media. among the students, only 27% use social media for their academic purposes and 73% for non-academic purposes. this is similar to the study of talaue et al. (2018) and ravichandran (2019). the results of other studies are much higher than the current study where 82% to 94% of students use social media for non-academic purposes and the rest are engaged in academic instances (kolan & dzandza, 2018; oberiri, 2017; owusu-acheaw & larson, 2015; rahman & mithun, 2021; zewdu et al., 2017). however, the study performed by sivakumar (2020) found that 80% of students used social media for their academic purposes. time spent on social media is positive and moderately correlated with students' academic performance. the inferential analysis states that time spent on social media is insignificantly associated with academic performance. the current result is similar to mensah and nizam (2016) but contradicts with laburi et al. (2019). the results of one way anova test shows that time spent on social media has a negative impact on students' academic performance. if students spend more time on social networking sites or social media it negatively impacts their academic results. hence, the impact of students who have engaged less time in social media is that their academic results or performance are far better than those who engage more time in social media. this result is consistent with the previous studies (celestine & nonyelum, 2018; owusu-acheaw & larson, 2015) who also found that time spent on social media negatively affect students' academic performance. pearson's correlation statistics show that the usage related to students' academic performance of social media affects academic activities positively. the usage effect of social media on class performance and course work has a positive and significant relationship with students' academic performance. the usage of social media never interrupt the students in routine classes, made them inattentive to class, failure in the submission of assignment and/or preparing regular course work. on the other hand, study performance has a positive but insignificant relationship with students' academic performance. this is consistent with the study conducted by othman et al. (2017) who found that there is no significant relationship between social media usage and students’ academic performance. one way anova test results loaded that the usage of social media negatively impacts students' academic performance. if students are excessively engaged in or addicted to social media it hampers their regular study schedule and time management which negatively impacts their academic performance. students who had less connection in social media achieved higher cgpa than those who had an excessive connection. it is similar to the result of oberiri (2017) but differs from othman et al. (2017). conclusions social media usage significantly influence academic life of students since most of them have made the media form an integral part of their life. they invest valuable time in social media for non-academic purposes despite having the opportunity to obtain academic information from it. the current study aims at investigating the impact of social media on students' academic performance. the results of the study reveal that the usage of social media significantly impacts students' academic activities and is associated with their academic performance. the study finds that students spend more time on social media, particularly on facebook that negatively impacts their academic performance. the study also finds that excessive usage of social media badly impacts students' academic results i.e., on the earned grade point average. the study recommends that most stakeholders like guardians, teachers, and advisory cell of the university should emphasize on setting uddin et al., american economic & social review 10(1) (2022), 1-10 9 up policies to monitor the activities of students concerning the utilization of social media and divert their leisure time on the social media for learning purposes. the current study covers only a single public university in bangladesh that is islamic university, kushtia. there is a scope for adding more public and private universities with larger number of respondents. there is further scope of research in this field on the relationship between students' social media usage and mental health, whether it significantly impacts students' academic performance or not, ignored in the present study. author contributions: conceptualization, m.k.u., m.n.h., m.j.a., m.a.s. and a.b.v.; methodology, m.k.u.; software, m.k.u.; validation, m.k.u., m.j.a. and a.b. b.; formal analysis, m.k.u.; investigation, m.k.u. and m.n.h.; resources, m.k.u., m.n.h. and m.s.a.; data curation, m.k.u., m.n.h., m.j.a., m.a.s., and a.b. b..; writing – original draft preparation, m.k.u. and m.n.h.; writing – review & editing, m.k.u., m.n.h.; a.b. b.; visualization, m.k.u., m.j.a., and a.b.b.; supervision, m.k.u. and a.b.b.; project administration, m.k.u. and a.b.b.; funding acquisition, m.k.u., m.n.h., m.j.a., m.a.s. and a.b.b. authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript. institutional review board statement: ethical review and approval were waived for this study, due to that the research does not deal with vulnerable groups or sensitive issues. funding: the authors received no direct funding for this research. acknowledgement: not applicable. informed consent statement: informed consent was obtained from all subjects involved in the study. data availability statement: the data presented in this study are available on request from the corresponding author. the data are not publicly available due to restrictions. conflicts of interest: the authors declare no conflict of interest. references azizi, s. m., soroush, a., & khatony, a. 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(2017). the impacts of social media on academic achievement of female students at jimma university. international journal of scientific and research publications, 7(5), 679-694. retrieved from https://www.ijsrp.org/research-paper-0517/ijsrp-p6576.pdf publisher’s note: cribfb stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. © 2022 by the authors. licensee cribfb, usa. this article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution (cc by) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). american economic & social review (p-issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277) by cribfb is licensed under a creative commons attribution 4.0 international license. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ american economic & social review 13(1) (2024), 1-11 1 economic & social review aesr vol 13 no 1 (2023) p-issn 2576-1269 e-issn 2576-1277 journal homepage: https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/aesr published by american economic & social society, usa reforms and improvement initiatives in government of bangladesh: field observation and analysis (2010-2018) moslehuddin chowdhury khaled (a)1 (a )associate professor of general management and hrm, chittagong independe nt university (ciu), chattogram-4000, bangladesh; e-mail: moslehuddin.khaled@ciu.edu.bd a r t i c l e i n f o article history: received: 15th september 2024 reviewed & revised: 15th september to 10th december 2024 accepted: 14th december 2024 published: 16th december 2024 keywords: management in government, public sector reforms, improvements in government, field research, qualitative research. jel classification codes: j18, h83, i18 peer-review model: external peer review was done through double-blind method. a b s t r a c t when it comes to improving citizen service delivery standard and processes, or broadly, management in government (mig), many reform programs and improvement efforts are ongoing across different ministries, departments, and agencies. as part of a larger field research, this paper investigates what those programs and projects are, and how they are doing, and what the gaps are. analyzing the publicly available data on the government portal and donors’ website, this article provides an overall idea of current reforms in various places of government. in parallel, field research was conducted through visiting agency offices, observing office environment and mechanisms, and interviewing public managers who are working at district and sub-district level offices of directorates or agencies. as a trend, state-led development process and the traditional mode of administration have moved to new public management based quality and performance approach. all donors have their own strategy framework document like ‘country assistance strategy’, ‘country operations and business plan’, logical framework document, etc. many of the projects are sectoral and agency or ministry specific, having inherent limitations, due to ‘cadre’ based organizational structural arrangement. it is common ‘not to own the projects’, rather ‘using the fund as much as possible anyway within the given project duration’. when the fund ends, implementing units or agencies leave the projects alone. that is why many projects are actually half done without significant and sustained direction. © 2024 by the authors. licensee american economic & social society, usa. this open-access article is distributed under the terms and conditions of the creative commons attribution (cc by) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0). introduction this paper originated from a larger research which was done as part of the research degree of the author. the larger research project (khaled, 2018; 2013) was about ‘management in government’ as seen from citizens’ perspective or a bottom up experience point of view. as a natural step of this empirical research, we were interested to know what were the ongoing programs and projects, and how they were doing, and what the gaps were from a ‘citizen experience at the bottom’ perspective. reforms has been quite constant for last thirty or forty years or so throughout developed countries. as a blanket, called neo-liberal reforms, these were politically pioneered by great britain under thatcher and united states under reagan. others followed. systemic reforms as governmental strategy, in anglo-saxon block and beyond, has been pioneered by uk, australia, and new zealand, among others. when it comes to improving citizen service delivery standard and processes, or broadly, management in government (mig), many improvement efforts – reforms programs and projects – are going on across different ministries, divisions, departments, directorates, and other agency or unit offices. right in time. according to bangladesh investment development authority (bida) public presentation (bida, 2018), bangladesh is one of the frontier five economies (jp morgan); the 12th economic power of the world in 2050 (ubs); low cost and high return manufacturing destination in asia (jetro); one of the next eleven (n-11) with high potential (goldman sachs); 28th & 23rd largest economy of world by 2030 & by2041 (pwc); bangladesh the next china (mckinsey & company). all these potentials and predictions depend on right kind of reforms. 1corresponding author: orcid id: 0000-0001-8767-4224 © 2024 by the authors. hosting by american economic & social society. peer review under responsibility of american economic & social society, usa. https://doi.org/10.46281/aesr.v13i1.2262 to cite this article: khaled, m. c. (2024). reforms and improvement initiatives in government of bangladesh: field observation and analysis (2010-2018). american economic & social review, 13(1), 1-11. https://doi.org/10.46281/aesr.v13i1.2262 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) https://www.openaccess.nl/en https://doi.org/10.46281/aesr.v13i1.2262 https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8767-4224 khaled, american economic & social review 13(1) (2024), 1-11 2 while appreciating the right reforms, we need to continuously check and balance, what all these mean at the citizen experience level. as we know, there are so many reforms that failed by design or by implementation, or produced too little result. this is confirmed by building state capability project (bsc, kennedy school of government at harvard university). as it is said, too many development initiatives have limited impact schools are built but children do not learn, clinics are built but sickness persists (andrews, pritchett, samji, & woolcock, 2015). so, there is a need for examination and reexamination of the ongoing reforms. this article attempted to contribute in that dimension. literature review the trust in government as an organization in terms to capacity to serve the citizens and fulfill their ever-increasing expectations is in decline (behn, 1995, 1998; fukuyama, 1995; ruscio 1996). it is not a developing country only phenomenon, rather a global trend. over recent decades and in many nations, the level of citizen trust and support for government has been declining (ferlie, lynn, & pollitt, 2005). in the united states, the proportion of americans who replied that they "trust the government in washington to do the right thing" some or most of the time has fallen steadily from 70 percent in1966, to 25 percent in 1992 (putnam, 1995), and to only 15 percent in 1995 (nye, zelikow, & king 1997). public confidence in government has also declined in canada (zussman, 1997), some european countries (oecd 2011; pollitt & bouckaert, 2011), new zealand (barnes and gill 2000) and other nations. as summarized in the trust issue of oxford government review in 2016, the developed countries’ populations are fed up with globalization for the benefit of the few, letting trade drive away jobs, and encouraging immigration so as to provide cheaper labor and to fill skills-gaps without having to invest in training. as a result the ‘anti-government’, ‘antiexpert’, ‘anti-immigration’ movements are rapidly gathering support (woods, 2016). so bridging the gap became a challenge in itself between citizens and their governments (woods, 2017). over the same period, a wave of ongoing governmental reform has washed over much of the developed world (kettl, 2002; kickert, 1997; pollitt & bouckaert, 2011). many developing countries have been moving toward ‘newer public management’ regimes to make their governmental operations more efficient and effective in response to the demands of overhauling of public management system. there is a constant call for reforms in government reforms which have been characterized by minarchism (limited government), debureaucratization (less bureaucracy), decentralization (reduced central control) and marketization (public sector corporatization, outsourcing and privatization). these signify a marked departure from the state-led development process and the traditional mode of administration to market based neoconservative ideology (zafarullah & sarker, 2016). another very important dimension, quality initiatives, have entered into mig arena in the name of most commonly used term, total quality management (tqm) or total quality management. tqm or continuous improvement (ci) of quality overlapped with other themes like ‘more choice for service users’, ‘explicit standards and performance management’, ‘focus on outputs and efficiency’, ‘concern for safety’, ‘greater use of competition and contracting’, and ‘increase accountability for performance’ (hughes, 2012). originally a private sector idea in engineering and manufacturing, found an audience in managerial philosophies (deming, 1986; juran & gryna 1993) and also came to be adopted in service sector (norman 1984; zeithaml, parasuraman & berry, 1990). with interesting development in public sector reforms (psr), quality improvement had become a major idea in public services or management in government (mig) after 1980s (pollitt 1990; ferlie, pettigrew, ashburner & fitzgerald, 1996), despite methodological problems in evaluating quality initiatives (walshe & freeman 2002; ovretveit & gustafson, 2002). all these had been reflected in our reform commissions’ reports and recommendations up to now (2018), as reviewed in literature review portion of the larger research project (khaled, 2013; 2018). in short we can say, bangladesh government is no exception in following global anglo-saxon pattern of reforms in mig, following and borrowing many terms, tools, and techniques from private sector management. as recent signposts of reforms, the civil service act was drafted in 2010. with the help of undp project cscmp (civil service change management program), citizen charter was introduced in all the ministries and departments of the government. then there have been all these a2i (access to information) office and digital initiatives, giu office (governance innovation unit), apa (annual performance agreement), ips-tqm (improving public servicetotal quality management), lgsp (local government support project) and similar initiatives. but, in the end, what we see in citizen experience and public media, the improvements in many case, are more in forms rather than in functions or contents. overall, there is little qualitative change in how government works and how citizens perceive about the quality of the service delivery of the governments (khan, 2009; khan, 2015; ali, 2004; 2007). now we will turn to our observations and analysis of the recent reform initiatives and management improvement projects, and identify what is missing, or what could be better. materials and methods in line with the above mentioned introduction, the objective of this paper fulfills two core investigative objectives among the broader objectives of the larger research or overall thesis. one objective is to provide a scenario overview of the current reforms, particularly service delivery improvement initiatives, in various places of government as part of the overall public service goal of reaching citizens door step. another objective is to investigate the qualitative impact of these reforms including digital movement, innovations, or improvement ideas to citizen service level at district (zila), sub-district (upazila), and union level. clearly, the methodological approach can broadly be categorized as ‘grounded theory approach’ and ‘qualitative strategy’ using ‘phenomenon’ based ‘case study design’ (yin, 2017; saunders & thornhill, 2012; bryman & bell, 2011; khaled, american economic & social review 13(1) (2024), 1-11 3 creswell, 2007; czarniawska, 2004). first objective has been fulfilled through desk research and website review. thanks to internet and bangladesh government policy of using internet and ict to provide information. bangladesh government web portal contains a lot of information about government’s activities including acts, policies, rules, etc. second objective has been fulfilled through visiting the office, observing office environment and mechanisms, and interviewing public managers who are working at district and sub-district level offices of directorates or agencies. specific respondent in case of specific reforms are not mentioned, naturally, to maintain their individual identification. the observations are presented as a whole, in general. in a field research like this one, findings are observations from the field – office setting, people, and their complex and networked interaction process.  here office setting included agency offices located at upazila complexes, zila offices of agencies, etc.  people means officer in charge or unit heads of those offices (managers), accounts officers, computer operators, support staffs and office assistants.  the interactions include how the unit head communicate with their superior offices at zila level, divisional level, and national head office (dg office / chairman office); how they interact with their internal and subordinate colleagues, how they interact with clients (citizens seeking the service), how they interact with other stakeholders like this researcher or media (open ended interview). in such an in-depth, ‘thick’ qualitative, narrative, and filed research, the foremost challenge is said to be gaining access and negotiation with the field actors or respondents. but we overcame it with quite ease. we showed the unit heads the declaration letter (purpose and intent of research) and then the discussion followed a natural way. within short time, we found the respondents very participative and cooperative. also, a lot of documents have been reviewed, in parallel, to complement and supplement the field observations and analysis. these documentary reviews and field observations have been done as part of a larger project of mphil and phd research, during 2010 to 2018. some of the factual figures (i.e., how many projects running, or completed, etc.) may change since then, but we would argue that the overall qualitative analysis still holds almost the same. another important point to repeat here is that in such empirical, naturalistic, in-depth qualitative and field research, analysis is intertwined with observation (yin, 2017; saunders & thornhill, 2012; bryman & bell, 2011; creswell, 2007; czarniawska, 2004). so each reform and mig improvement initiatives are reviewed with observations and analysis together. discussions findings of phase i: observations and analysis of management reforms within the government government has taken many ‘continuous improvement’ (ci) programs and projects across the ministries and directorates. in this section, we present our appreciation, observation, and analysis of those ci efforts. in the next section, a donor wise observations and analysis is presented. where is the hub point of mig initiatives: mopa or pmo ministry of public administration (mopa), earlier called ministry of establishment, could be a starting point (mopa.gov.bd/en). it would be better if there were a comprehensive list of reforms ongoing projects that would help us to systematically review donor wise project list, ministry wise project list, agency wise list, thematic area wise list, etc. but no organized listing of the ongoing improvement efforts has been found in their website. that means, as the umbrella ministry of civil service structure, the focal point is missing at the ministries and secretariat. many mig reforms programs and projects, ci (continuous improvement) process, and other improvement initiatives are ongoing here and there, in different ministries in association with different donors like undp, jica, world bank, dfid, etc. these projects, though look sectoral in scope, share the common goal of improving management or working mechanism of government for better citizen service delivery or making government work for citizens. so as next step of our grounded theory, naturalistic research approach, we took the pmo (prime minister office) website (pmo.gov.bd) as starting point to check what ‘management improvement’ projects are going on. in pmo (prime minister’s office), there are several offices which are cross-cutting in the sense are that they are not under specific ministry, rather they are citizen need centric. they are assumed to be prime minister’s priority projects or fast-track projects. (table 1) all the ministries and their departments and directorates are meant for citizen service in their respective sector, in general. but when an office is inside the pmo it can be said that these offices have been created for fast track service or as means of powerful coordination with different service rendering ministries and directorates for the sake of service to the citizens. currently it contains following projects: among all these offices, access to information (a2i) and governance innovation unit (giu) seems to be more related to what we are researching – improving management mechanism of government offices. both are concerned about general idea of improving citizen service delivery procedures of different ministries, departments, directorates, etc. in terms of innovation, reducing red tapes, reducing steps and reducing time, cost, and visits (tcv) to government offices. this article will investigate these and other reforms projects under different ministries, which are concerned with general khaled, american economic & social review 13(1) (2024), 1-11 4 management problems – procedures and mechanisms of how government work. table 1. projects / agency units of national priorities under pmo name of the projects brief description of purpose – agency or units under pmo ashrayan project: housing for all, particularly uprooted people due to flood, cyclone, river corrosion etc. bangladesh economic zones authority (beza): facilitation authority for specially allocated economic zones (sez) in different areas of country, to attract local and foreign investors for rapid economic development through industrialization and employment generation. bangladesh export processing zone authority (bepza) epzs are exclusive zones for export oriented industrial set ups having dedicated facilities and processes. it provides some exclusive terms and benefits to export oriented industries. a2i (access to information) main office for converting the digital bangladesh vision into reality. starting from website for all ministries and directorates, they are working on how to digitize the forms, application procedures, contacts of all government offices and officers, and how to simplify different service delivery mechanism using the it platform. bangladesh investment development authority (bida): bida was created merging previous board of investment (boi) and privatization commission, to act as private sector investment promotion and facilitation agency. it provides one stop service in advising, registration, utility services, connecting local investors, connecting to government offices, etc. public-private partnerships (ppp) office: ppp office is a dedicated office under the pmo to support line ministries to facilitate ppp projects for infrastructure development. a ppp unit under the ministry of finance was also established to further accelerate the realization of ppp objective. governance innovation unit (giu): initiated by professor gowher rizvi, international affairs adviser to the prime minister, giu is meant to be hub facilitation unit to develop the culture among public servants for putting citizens first. (that means a qualitative change by reducing red tape, improving service delivery, engaging public sector employees and getting results for citizens) ngo affairs bureau (ngoab): ngos are all social welfare organizations funded by local and foreign donors. this regulatory body facilitates ngo (nongovernment organizations) activities around the countries. deputy commissioners (dc) once in a month hold coordination meeting with ngos working in the districts. observations and analysis: access to information (a2i) of pmo access to information or a2i (a2i.gov.bd) had been established in 2009 as a undp and usaid-supported program directly in prime minister’s office of bangladesh. a2i goal is mentioned to ensure easy, affordable and reliable access to quality public services for all citizens of bangladesh. their strategy is to:  empower civil servants with the tools, expertise, knowledge and resources they need for experimenting and innovating citizen-centric solutions to public service challenges;  establish both physical and online one-stop access points that scale innovative services and make them available to citizens easily, reliably and in an affordable manner;  encourage and support non-government actors, including small entrepreneurs, teachers and the youth, to partner with government actors. a2i claims to drive the creation of a public service innovation ecosystem and delivery infrastructure from the prime minister’s office working closely with the cabinet division. its unique, simple and powerful innovation lab+ model revolves around: cultivating ‘empathy’, reducing ‘tcv’, simplifying through ‘sps’, supporting innovation through ‘service innovation fund’, celebrating innovators with ‘innovation summits’, establishing delivery platforms enabling ‘services for all’. simply speaking, a2i is branded as the focal point of government’s digital bangladesh initiative. using ict (information and communication technology), this office strives to build websites, platform, and other mechanisms for making the information and services more accessible and available. as natural for a research following grounded theory approach, we need to analyze what we see, as data collection (observation) and analysis cannot be discretely separated from one another.  a2i is more focused on indicators, than on structural bottlenecks, even less on nuances of the mechanism of agency offices at field level.  much touted as it is visible, that means it looks like a typical donor funded programs, whose website is the most excellent part of their visibility.  more connected to government at the top, less connected to citizens at the bop and citizen serving field officers. it makes government happy by bringing award and accolades from different international forum and government is happy to publicize it in front of citizens. citizens are yet to be included.  government seems to assume that government needs more ‘marketing’ or ‘branding’ so that citizens can appreciate ongoing initiatives of government. a2i also brought in philip kotler, the most famous marketing guru of the time to brand bangladesh as a 'sleeping tiger' (access to information, 2010).  in line with that a2i developed its own branding rather successfully. but citizens experience in many government offices that actually the digital process does not work physically due to structural and cultural bottlenecks in government. as a whole, there is clear signs of improvement in forms and information availability in the offices and websites. but, when people still find physical bottlenecks in most citizen service delivery processes of most agency offices, citizens naturally have a doubt on a2i or digital bangladesh, or at least in the completeness of the initiative. (anyone who has experienced or know others who have experienced of getting or modifying national id card (nid) and national passport, can understand it firsthand). so innovation is fine, it or digitization is wonderful, but it can help to make the services faster and accurate, only khaled, american economic & social review 13(1) (2024), 1-11 5 when the physical process is well defined. and scaling up and mainstreaming it enabled citizen-centric public services, need bottom up understanding of the nuances at the field, which is missing. observations and analysis: governance innovation unit (giu) of pmo innovation in governance and public service is a new catch word now-a-days. governance innovation unit (giu) was established in pmo in 2012. giu (giupmo.gov.bd) was initiated by professor gowher rizvi, international affairs adviser to the prime minister, built on his earlier experience as a director of ash center of governance and innovation at harvard university. according to giu unit, innovation means working smarter. it also means being inclusive by using successes and lessons learned from other countries, ministries and non-government organizations to multiply results for citizens. finally, innovation means cutting red tape and learning to manage risks, through pilots and models. many public sector employees have ideas for creating value for the citizens they serve; the giu serves as a catalyst to encourage their ideas and good work. giu is tasked with re-inventing the public sector to encourage putting citizens first by improving citizen satisfaction with services. giu is meant to be hub facilitation unit to develop the culture among public servants for a qualitative change by reducing red tape, improving service delivery, engaging public sector employees and getting results for citizens. observations and analysis  the giu seems to be overlapping with a2i in terms of proposition, but looks much less organized and professional than a2i.  it is not at all clear how this unit is different from a2i unit, within the same pmo unit, which also deals with innovation, just with it at forefront while they also claim to champion ‘innovation’ and ‘improving’ the service delivery process.  no organized briefing, concept note, strategy papers are available like the ones found in a2i portal.  vision mission section is left blank, objective section shows something. focus is not clear.  in publications section, only a few booklets containing some small initiatives are available. the comprehensiveness of giu is not evident (last checked in december 5, 2017).  we tried to contact several times through email and other mechanism provided by giu web portal. but no response was found or no reply was received. also i contacted through facebook messenger. a messenger response told me to send my cv as i expressed my research interest in management in government (giu). i mailed but nothing happened forward.  also, in the field research, it was found that public managers (field level agency officers) know about a2i better than giu. in many cases, they do not know at all the existence and purpose of giu.  common perception of the field level officers is innovation is digital and it is being done by a2i.  as a whole, it can be concluded that giu is yet to build a minimum level general awareness among the agency offices, let alone build a momentum for change. but in the long run, giu, as its names says, should be the focal point for improvements of management in government. observations and analysis: ips/tqm at bpatc under mopa improving public services through total quality management (ips-tqm) project (ipstqm.net), assisted by aid agency of japan government – japan international cooperation agency (jica), is being implemented by bpatc (bangladesh public administration training center). partner institutes are bard, rda, naem, napd, and nilg. bpatc itself is an agency under ministry of public administration (mopa). the general objective of this project is to improve the quality of public services, particularly in the field administration through the application of total quality management (tqm) and kaizen (continuous improvement). tqm and related concepts kaizen, zero defects, sig sigma quality as production, quality, and management approaches, was pioneered by japan, and later, followed by us private sector. gradually, the tqm approach has been tried in public sector also in different scopes. ips-tqm project goal is to encourage small improvement projects (sips) in more than 12,000 upazila offices and municipalities of bangladesh every year under a nationwide framework of one year one improvement through one year one project (oyop). thus the project aims to contribute to policy making and institutionalization of tqm and kaizen approach. activities implemented under phase-i include tqm basics, tot (training of trainers), advance tot, refresher courses, seminar, and workshops etc. an operational model has been developed through six upazila level pilot courses in six districts under the then six divisions of the country to develop a model for nationwide field-level tqm training intervention. those activities are otherwise accessible and known through the videos they provided in their website and youtube channel. observations and analysis of tqm projects  wonderful project documents are available publicly, which serve as starting points for reference, common understanding, and actions of all stakeholders (bangladesh public administration training centre (bpatc) & japan international cooperation agency (jica) , 2013) khaled, american economic & social review 13(1) (2024), 1-11 6  bpatc is the lead organization in ips-tqm project. bpatc is under mopa and it does not seem to have any day to day collaboration or coordination framework. that means it is running rather independently or separately from other similar cross cutting initiatives like a2i/pmo and giu/pmo.  these units at mopa and pmo, might have some meeting and communication time to time, but no strategic management coordination framework for operational purpose. for good or bad, they are running isolated activities.  bpatc is an autonomous unit under mopa, but it cannot be expected to have similar mandate like a2i and giu units which are located directly in pmo. in bangladesh, pmo is very powerful, by default. and mopa is an additional tier for bpatc.  on the other hand, it might be better that bpatc projects like ips-tqm can rather work independently without day to day interference from pmo. in any case, the continuity and self-efficacy of the project is not strong or mainstreamed. why tqm type techniques may not be appropriate: tqm has been very popular in private sector for last three or four decades, first in japan, then in us and other places. tqm, kaizen and related concepts have been tried first in manufacturing and then in service sector. gradually consultants suggested it to be tried in public sector (government). there are lessons for the public sector, for example, giving workers in small teams the methods and power to identify problems and implement their own solutions (anderson, cassidy, & rivenburgh, 1991). however, we found in our field research what khan (2010, 2015) mentioned that the introduction of these methods at this stage of bangladesh administration may not be a viable option, unless the radical restructuring of the administrative system in bangladesh is completed and there is a sea change in the mindset of supervisors. difference of context for tqm in bangladesh: these methods are used in participatory network organizations which are based on trust. the public-sector organizations in bangladesh are too hierarchical, based on the distrust of subordinates, and team based work culture is totally absent. the structure of bangladesh bureaucracy is not at all congenial to team building and cooperation. so, tqm or 360-degree-feedback type system cannot be implemented to get expected impact. observations and analysis: local governance support project (lgsp) of lgrd local governance support project (lgsp) has been running under ministry of local government, rural development and co-operatives (lgrd). it is an ongoing project (www.lgsplgd.gov.bd) to strengthen local government bodies, particularly union parishad. union parishad is the lowest tier of local government in bangladesh. through resources received from these projects, union parishads are able to select their own development schemes. the system has been established countrywide through first phase of local governance support project (lgsp-i), jointly funded by world bank and bangladesh government, undp, uncdf, danida and european union (eu) and the system has further been strengthen through lgsp-2, and is continued to third phase as lgsp-3, since january 2017. observations and analysis  lgsp is a wonderful project to address the challenges at the bottom, say union parishad, for example.  the acceptance and recognition of the union parishad as a local government institution has gradually increased. its efficiency and capacity to implement schemes at the grass-roots level has also continued to enhance.  union parishad are the grass-root level administrative unit of the central government for implementing central government’s activities, in terms of selecting schemes, projects, beneficiary groups and related activities.  this institution has undergone many changes over a period of time in terms of its name as well as activities and responsibilities, but it was democracy in practice at root level in however limited scope.  union parishads are expected to design and implement their own projects without any direct interference from upper levels of central government. which seems ideal, but the capacity of union parishad to do so remained a big question.  rather than creating confidence, it might create a lack of confidence, if they do not have the capacity to design and implement.  it is said that ‘engaging the people in the process’ is an objective, but we did not find any effective discussion mechanism in the union parishad. in fact, there is no culture of any citizen meeting or citizen debates and discussion in union parishad.  there is an inherent distrust on capability of local government, as seen from the top of government (tog). for example, ebek (one home one farm) project has been kept outside the purview of upazila parishad and union parishad to keep it free from ‘corruption’ and ‘nepotism’. rather than developing strong bottom up mechanism, negative things are assumed to be a historical and reality of local government politics. according to our field research at union, upazila, and zila level, our observations and analysis tells that the lgsp project will not bring desired or expected benefit. there are clear signs of lacking of the enabling environment support and strong coordination between and among lgd of lgrd ministry important stakeholders like upazila administration, zila administration, divisional administration, lgd filed offices, and lgrd ministry. lgd office in under dc office, while functionally it is under lgd division of ministry of lgrd and cooperatives. also, it needs coordination on the part of many directorates under different ministries to work seamlessly at ‘local government’ level. observations and analysis: horizontal learning program (hlp) the horizontal learning program (hlp) was a union parishad (up) led peer-to-peer learning initiative facilitated by the government of bangladesh and supported by development partners in 2000s. under this program local governments connect khaled, american economic & social review 13(1) (2024), 1-11 7 with each other to identify, share, and replicate the very best practices of their peers (world bank, 2008). the unique features of hlp were as follows:  horizontal learning is a structured process to enable each local government to reach out across conventional boundaries to look for the best practices of peers and assess against their own indicators of success  replicate some of these best practices of peers in their ‘my own way, in my own context’ style.  transform collectively reform policies and institutions on the basis of the most replicated practices.  the initiative is being facilitated by the local government division, ministry of local government, rural development and cooperatives (lgrd&c), government of bangladesh, and supported by the water and sanitation program (wsp) of the world bank. different programs and projects in 10 upazilas under the horizontal learning program were supported through various funding agencies, such as, government of bangladesh (gob), swiss agency for development and cooperation (sdc), department for international development (dfid), world bank, and danish international development agency (danida). observations and analysis of hlp  horizontal learning appears to be a bottom-up process to work best in domains where knowledge is tacit rather than codified and where top-down best practices are lost in bureaucratic procedures. hlp mechanism was expected to be self-refining: good practices continue to be identified, refined and adapted leading to the continued improvement horizontally, from peer to peer. this complements conventional capacity building approaches.  but like many other programs and projects, it seems to be losing its way amid so many donors and in course of change of power in government. the website (www.horizontallearning.net) is no longer available for any updates. different donors have conducted review of hlp mechanism (japan international cooperation agency (jica), 2013; swiss development cooperation (sdc), 2013) in their own way, but it did not get a momentum as a specific unit like other initiatives.  as a whole, hlp has a basic limitation in the sense that it cannot be scaled up that much due to structural bottlenecks of civil service cadre system in agencies and resultant lack of coordination among the agencies. that we addressed in our research analysis and solution. observations and analysis: managing at the top (matt) matt (managing at the top of dfid), the international aid agency of uk government, was a capacity development program for the senior public managers. matt program was run in two phases, starting from 1999 and ended in 2013, with some interval in between. the program objective was to train and create a critical mass of reform minded civil servants who, as public managers at strategic and influential positions, would improve their own institutional performance, and would ensure generate and demand administrative reform from inside bangladesh civil service. it has similarity to cscmp of undp, as it also aimed to create a change-oriented or reform-oriented mindset among civil service officials or public managers. but matt, by its name, was targeted for senior civil service officials or public managers who are managing from the top and key positions at the heart of the government. observations and analysis of matt  matt provided scoping visits abroad, workshops at home, particularly more at the tog (top of government).  as it was under mopa, and included senior management, mainly, admin cadre officials were included in training and workshops due to structural set up of existing civil service senior management structure, where admin cadre holds the top positions in most senior management positions.  since senior management (mostly from admin cadre) is connected to bog agency field offices, only superficially, the thrust could not reach bog (bottom of government) agencies.  so, the impact was not significant for instituting changes in the hrm within the public sector. at the field level, upazila and zila officers of different agencies hardly could identify any such program and its consequences. at the end, when the donor project ended, it was sort of the end. observations and analysis: civil service change management program (cscmp) cscmp (civil service change management program) started in 2008 and is to be ended in 2018. as the name suggests, the aim has been to provide a toolbox or road map for civil service reform in bangladesh. in more specific terms, it aimed to  transform traditional mindset into a modern effective, responsive, accountable and transparent public service mindset that work for its client or customerscitizens.  introducing modern change management techniques to effectively implement reforms and changes;  introduce modem human resource management system emphasizing performance and capability  facilitate the collaboration between civil service and citizens, especially at the field administration level;  promote the review and revision of antiquated business processes, rules & procedures and organizational structures (including strengthening field administration);  observations and analysis of cscmp  bog officials commented that so far, it has been limited in workshops in various places in different agencies. in many places, the citizen charter has become ‘just another signboard or another projects’. khaled, american economic & social review 13(1) (2024), 1-11 8  in general, agency level field offices are not aware of the background and origin of the cscmp or initiatives like citizen charter. that means self-efficacy for change is still to get a momentum at the agency levels, and field level agency offices.  an important reason of unawareness and lack of self-efficacy is, it has been dominated by, and administered by mopa, and administration cadre. other cadres and agency officials are not included significantly, due to natural structural design (others say, bottlenecks) of existing bangladesh civil service. so rather than an overall reform project, it remained as admin cadre reforms-recreation training projects. while said that, as recent project, the some of the consequence of cscmp has been evident in the field, at least in forms, for example, citizen charter signboard and posters, some help desks, some renovated offices, signboards, notice boards, etc. regardless of the services working or not, signposts like citizen charter are more or less, visible in government offices. also, the cscmp contributed in formation of civil service act 2010, regardless of its operationalization. but here also, what is missing is understanding the mechanism of citizen service delivery at the bottom, as it is seen from ground. findings of phase ii: observations and analysis of donors’ work area the programs of previous section are the most visible ones within the government structure and machinery. but in this section, we present the observations donor wise, that means, an overview of work area of different donors, and single out the governance and management reforms type programs, if any. observations on world bank programs the world bank is a vital source of financial and technical assistance to developing countries around the world. they provide a wide array of financial products and technical assistance, and help countries share and apply innovative knowledge and solutions to the challenges they face (worldbank.org/en/country/bangladesh)  the world bank works in every major area of development like agriculture, climate change, education, energy, environment & natural resources, finance, competitiveness, & innovation, fragility, conflict, & violence, gender, governance; health, nutrition, & population; macroeconomics, trade, & investment, poverty, public-private partnerships, social protection; social, urban, rural & resilience; transport & digital development; and water.  a total of around 58 projects has been running, 276 projects completed, 19 projects dropped and around 16 projects are in the pipeline, so far.  among all these, in governance area, some of the projects related to cross cutting improvements are local governance support project, leveraging ict for growth, employment, governance project, municipal governance and services project, identification system for enhancing access to services (idea) project, governance is important as cross-cutting theme in the overall development of bangladesh. world bank’s country assistance strategy (cas) has identified governance as a pillar of priority and offers a range of support to improve the quality of governance. efforts are underway to improve core governance systems in areas such as public procurement, financial management, fiscal reporting, and watchdog institutions. observations on undp programs undp (united nations development program) bangladesh has been a key facilitator in bangladesh’s remarkable development story since it first arrived in 1972 and since then helped bangladesh make critical advances in the areas of governance, poverty reduction, climate change and disaster resilience (bd.undp.org/content/bangladesh).  currently undp is working in the area of poverty reduction, democratic governance, crisis prevention & recovery and environment & energy.  a total of around 26 projects has been running, 11 projects completed, so far.  among all these, in governance area, the projects are: police reform program, union parishad and upazila governance, strengthening capacity for aid effectiveness in bangladesh, activating village courts in bangladesh, justice sector facility, and areas for research, engagement and national agendas, implementation of digital ecnec and knowledge for development management. cscmp (civil service change management program) has been described in earlier section. observations on adb programs the asian development bank is a multilateral programs focused in asia and pacific. the country operations business plan (cobp), 2018–2020 of the asian development bank (adb) for bangladesh focuses on the country partnership strategy’s five priority investment areas to support the three complementary agendas of inclusive economic growth, environmentally sustainable growth, and regional integration: (i) easing infrastructure constraints, (ii) improving human capital, (iii) promoting economic corridor development, (iv) improving rural livelihoods, and (v) providing climate and disaster resilient infrastructure and services (www.adb.org/countries/bangladesh).  among these areas a total of around 78 projects has been running, 98 projects completed, so far. in public sector management category, there are 35 projects.  governance or public sector management is not a named criteria in the list of projects. observations on jica programs the japan international cooperation agency (jica) is also a major donor agency working in bangladesh. currently jica khaled, american economic & social review 13(1) (2024), 1-11 9 has two priority areas: accelerating economic growth and addressing social vulnerability and programs in areas like power, urban development, transportation, private sector development, education: basic education improvement, health, governance, and rural development (jica.go.jp/bangladesh).  in governance area, the projects are: national integrity strategy support project; inclusive city governance project; strengthening pourashava governance project; strengthening public investment management system project; the project for developing inclusive city government for city corporations; project for improving public services through total quality management; the project for human resource development scholarship (jds) and project for enhancing capacity of public service training in bangladesh. among these, improving public services through total quality management (ips-tqm) is being implemented by bpatc (bangladesh public administration training center), which is under ministry of public administration (mopa). this has been described in earlier section. observations on dfid programs the department for international development (dfid) is a united kingdom government department responsible for administering overseas aid to end extreme poverty, deliver the global goals for sustainable development (sdgs) and tackle a wide range of global development challenges.  dfid's main program areas of work are education, health, social services, water supply and sanitation, government and civil society, economic sector (including infrastructure, production sectors and developing planning), environment protection, research, and humanitarian assistance.  governance area and public sector management is not a named category. we found the close match in the name of ‘government and civil society’ and multi-sectoral. in these categories, major projects are: transparency and right to information, strengthening public expenditure management in bangladesh, strengthening government social protection systems for the poor, strengthening economic systems in bangladesh, bangladesh education development programme, access to justice through paralegal and restorative justice services in bangladesh one of the project managing at the top (matt) can be directly linked to improving management capacity of government leadership in the civil administration, which has been described in details in earlier section. observations on usaid programs the united states agency for international development (usaid) is an independent agency of the united states federal government that is primarily responsible for administering civilian foreign aid and development assistance. currently usaid is working in the area of agriculture and food security; democracy, human rights, and governance; education; energy; environment and global climate change; gender equality and women's empowerment and global health.  in governance area, usaid programs in bangladesh, trained local government institutions to improve their ability to provide basic services, created citizen forums in each of these communities to increase citizen input on local government activities,  trained political party activists from across the political spectrum to increase political parties’ responsiveness and improve internal coordination through party conferences and councils.  usaid also works with public institutions to reduce corruption, increase transparency of government, and increase accountability and also help incorporate digital technology to improve efficiency of public services throughout the country, including electronic land titling, birth registration, and university applications. observations on european union programs the european union (eu) is a political and economic union of 28-member states that are located primarily in europe. but the eu provides development funding for a broad range of projects and programs covering areas such as: (i) regional & urban development, (ii) employment & social inclusion, (iii) agriculture & rural development, (iv) maritime & fisheries policies, (v) research & innovation, and (vi) humanitarian aid.  in bangladesh, the 2014-20 indicative program (€690 million) focuses on 3 sectors: governance, food & nutrition security and education & skills.  in governance criteria major project is named, support to the justice system activating village courts conclusions this paper provided an overall idea of ongoing ‘management’ reforms for the ‘improved service’ to the citizens. there are clearly visible signs of progress like citizen charter, decorated help desk, neon signboard, elegant looking conference room, and posh office room for office heads. said that however, there is a need to be critical about what is missing on the ground at the bottom where citizens interact with government on a day to day basis. so far it is clear from our field research and desk research (document and website information of bangladesh government) and that there are many reforms and improvement initiatives going on in government to make it work better for citizens. some started as early as 10 to 15 years ago, some are most recent, or continue as part of a sequence of initiatives along the same line of approach. regardless of the source of fund, some programs are initiated and owned by government and some are initiated by donors themselves. most such reform programs are run through shared funding modality also. in the previous sections, we reviewed current work area and recent programs in bangladesh. one major observation is, in many cases, donors are not actually implementing organizations. they use government ministries, or agencies, ngos, khaled, american economic & social review 13(1) (2024), 1-11 10 or even other international organizations. all donors have their own strategy framework document like ‘country assistance strategy’, ‘country operations and business plan’, logical framework document, and focus area or priority streams etc. so programs and projects idea and design have to be aligned with theirs, more than the government’s own internally generated strategy. many of the projects are sectoral and agency or ministry specific. sectoral projects have an inherent limitations, due to organizational structural problems of cadre centered civil service system along the directorates, agencies and ministries, a system, which itself needs systemic restructuring. on the part of implementer, the government ministry and agency unit officials’ psychology can best be termed as lack of internal ownership. fund comes from external parties, strategy is of external parties, results and impact format is of external parties. so, it is typical ‘not to own the projects’, rather ‘using the fund as much as possible anyway’. and the programs are driven by kpi of donors’ frameworks, not by the actual systemic need-satisfaction of clients – field agency offices and citizens. when the fund ends, implementing units, either government or ngos, abandon the projects. that is why we find in the field research that many projects are actually half done without any particular direction. latest of such evidences in support of our analysis can be found where a researcher at john’s hopkins university (honig, 2018), drawing on a database of over 14,000 development projects of nine aid agencies and eight paired case studies of development projects, argued that foreign aid programs lacks contextual nuances that cannot be seen by those in distant headquarters. so what they do is imposing ‘tight controls’ and focus on reaching pre-set measurable targets, which often prevent front-line workers from using skill, local knowledge, and creativity to solve problems in contextually appropriate ways. so again, we can conclude that this is a sort of top-down or trickle down conception and design of development, reforms, and improvement, which do not reach systemically at the bottom, at field level where public managers provide services to citizens. how to make all these work for citizens at the bottom needs further deliberation on ‘bottom-up’ approach, local government approach, ‘alternative development’, or also called, ‘doing development differently’ approach. author contributions: conceptualization, m.c.k.; methodology, m.c.k.; software, m.c.k.; validation, m.c.k.; formal analysis, m.c.k.; investigation, m.c.k.; resources, m.c.k.; data curation, m.c.k.; writing – original draft preparation, m.c.k.; writing – review & editing, m.c.k.; visualization, m.c.k.; supervision, m.c.k.; project administration, m.c.k. authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript. institutional review board statement: ethical review and approval were waived for this study, due to that the research does not deal with vulnerable groups or sensitive issues. funding: the authors received no direct funding for this research. acknowledgments: not applicable. informed consent statement: informed consent was obtained from all subjects involved in the study. data availability statement: the data presented in this study are available on request from the corresponding author. the data are not publicly available due to restrictions. conflicts of interest: the authors declare no conflict of interest. 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