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 ISSN: 2158-8104 (Online), 2164-0920 (Print), 2021, Vol. 5, Issue.1 

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    American Journal of Agricultural Science, Engineering and Technology 
 

 ISSN: 2158-8104 (Online), 2164-0920 (Print), 2021, Vol. 5, Issue.1 

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The American Journal of Agricultural Science, Engineering and Technology (AJASET) is blind 

peer reviewed international journal publishing articles that emphasize research, development and 

application within the fields of agricultural science, engineering and technology. The AJASET 

covers all areas of Agricultural Science, Engineering and Technology, publishing original 

research articles. The AJASET reviews article within approximately two weeks of submission 
and publishes accepted articles online immediately upon receiving the final versions.  

Published Media: ISSN: 2158-8104 (Online), 2164-0920 (Print).  

Frequency: 2 issues per year (January, July)  

Area of publication: Agricultural Science, Engineering and Technology. The subjects covered 

by the journal includes but not limited to:  

Agriculture 

Agricultural Economics and Agri-business  

Agricultural Engineering  

Agricultural Statistics  

Agricultural Extension and Development 

Agro-forestry and Ecotourism  

Agronomy  

Agro-tourism  

Animal Science and Nutrition  

Applied Agriculture  

Applied Economics and Finance 

Aquaculture  

Bioinformatics  

Biotechnology and Biochemistry Climate 

Change and Green Technology 

Collaborative Engineering  

Computer Science and Engineering 

Computational Biology  

Crop Science and Production  

Dairy Science & Poultry Science Decision 

Support System  

Entomology  

Environmental Science and Extension 

Dental and Medical Science  

Experimental Agriculture  

Food science, Engineering and 

Technology Genetics Technology  

Geophysics  

GIS, GPS, and Remote Sensing 

Horticultural Science  

ICT for Agricultural Development  

Irrigation and Water Resource Engineering 

Land Use and Development  

Mathematics  

Modeling of Crop and Animal System 

Pathology and Plant Protection  

Fisheries  

Plant Breeding and Crop Science  

Post-harvesting Technique and 

Technology Precision Agriculture  

Production Engineering  

Social Science and Agricultural 

Development Soil Science  

Tropical Agriculture  

Veterinary Science and Technology 

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    American Journal of Agricultural Science, Engineering and Technology 
 

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EDITORIAL BOARD 

 

Chief Editor 

Dr Mamun-Or-Rashid 

Professor, Dhaka University, Bangladesh 

 

Board Members  

Dr. Sumit Garg, IL, USA 

Professor Dr. James J. Riley, The University of Arizona, USA 

Dr. Ekkehard KÜRSCHNER, Agriculture Development Consultant, Germany 

Professor Dr. Rodriguez Hilda, USA 

Professor Dr. Michael D. Whitt, USA 

Professor Dr. Wael Al-aghbari, Yemen 

Dr. Clement Kiprotich Kiptum, University of Eldoret, Kenya 

 

Managing Editor 

Md. Roshidul Hasan 

Professor, Department of Computer Science and Information Technology,  

Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University

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FORECASTING NATURAL GAS DEMAND, PRODUCTION   AND ANALYZING THE 

FUTURE OF CNG & LPG AS AN ALTERNATIVES FOR VEHICLES FUEL IN 

BANGLADESH 

Hasanuzzaman Showrav1*, Noor Ahmed Kawsar2, Md. Numan Hossain3, Dr. M. Farhad 

Howladar4 

ABSTRACT 

Natural gas is one of the primary energy sources of Bangladesh. Demand of natural gas 

in Bangladesh increasing day by day in various sectors. But, due to limited resources, energy 

crisis increasing gradually. This research work deigned to find out the natural gas crisis via 

forecasting gas demand and production. At the end, it also analyzed the future of CNG and 

LPG based vehicles in Bangladesh as an alternative of natural gas dependency. The 

prediction of gas demand and production has been conducted based on the data from 

Petrobangla. And the future of CNG and LPG based vehicles were analyzed based on 

different CNG & LPG conversion company data. Demand forecasting presented three 

scenarios; “scenario A, scenario B and scenario C” and production forecasting has been 

displayed as three cases; “case A, case B, case C”. The Comparison of CNG and LPG has 

been made based on different parameters like conversion cost, calorific fuel value, fuel cost, 

mileage, risk of explosion of fuel cylinder, carbon emission etc.    

The outcomes of gas demand forecasting represented that gas demand is growing in every 

scenario. The results of production forecasting denoted as existing gas fields production are 

decreasing gradually. It also indicated, if new reserves would be discovered, then the production 

will be maximized. On the other hand, CNG conversion rate will be declined due to the shortage 

of natural gas. In conclusion, the investigation of different parameter of CNG & LPG confirmed, 

LPG is suitable for cope up with the future crisis. Hence LPG based vehicles need to take place 

of CNG based vehicles. 

Keywords: Natural Gas, Gas Demand Forecasting, Production Forecasting, LPG, CNG 

1, 2, 3 & 4 Dept. of Petroleum & Mining Engineering, Shahjalal University of Science & 

Technology, Sylhet-3114, Bangladesh. 

* Corresponding author’s e-mail: hasanuzzaman.showrav54@gmail.com

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1. INTRODUCTION 

Bangladesh is one of the most populous countries and the energy crisis is the most important 

question. Government of Bangladesh is struggling to overcome the energy crises from the 

beginning of the country. Daily gas demand in our country is around 4000 MMCF, but daily gas 

supply is around 3000 MMCF (Govt. Bangladesh, 2019). There exists a large gap between 

demand and supply as Bangladesh has limited gas resources to meet up the demand. On the other 

hand, the Bangladesh government has announced “Vision 2041”. To achieve “Vision 2041” one 

of the most important sectors is the energy sector (BD News, 2021). As gas is the leading fuel of 

energy of this country so to reduce the difference between demand and supply of gas Bangladesh 

government has taken many steps. One of these is new gas reserves searching on offshore and 

onshore. There is a huge possibility to find new gas reserves on our offshore.  

On the other hand, according to the spirit of the age, conversion of vehicles into LPG vehicles is 

the best decision (Gazco,2021). Even though CNG as a vehicle fuel is more popular for all but it 

is not suitable for us at this time because of the upcoming energy crisis (Bronson,2021). 

Following the government policy, Private Companies and local people are changing the policy in 

their energy consumption. So, to make a reliable policy for achieving the goal “Vision 2041”, it 

is important to make a reliable energy modeling for the energy sector. In energy modeling, it is 

very important to comprehend the future conditions of the energy sector. Thus, in describing the 

future state, the forecasting model is most effective by taking into account different scenarios 

and different parameters depending on the sector of energy consumption.  This research has been 

conducted to analyze the future energy crisis and the source of future potential energy. This 

study has been designed to forecast future gas demand, gas production and alternative sources of  

vehicle fuels. At the end, comparing among different types of vehicle fuels, suggested the better 

options. 

2. METHODOLOGY 

The methodology includes data collection from different sources. Data analyzed with software 

applications to find final output. Data was collected from Navana CNG Ltd., Toma CNG Ltd, 

Petrobangla’s website and from Internet. Navana CNG Ltd, Toma CNG provided verbal data 

instead of official data. Data was collected from two CNG conversion centers in Sylhet, CNG 

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and LPG Conversion centers in Dhaka. After collecting all of the data were analyzed by using 

MS Excel 2016. The flowchart (Fig-1) represents the methodology in details.  

 

Figure-1: Methodology of the study. 

3. RESULT AND DISCUSSION 

3.1 Future Gas Demand Forecast 

The forecast of future gas production has analyzed based on the three scenarios A, B and C.  

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3.1.1 Scenario A: Modified PSMP 2016 

In this scenario, it assumed that GDP development rates at that point decay continuously from 

8% in 2020 to 4.3% by 2041 (Petrobangla, 2018). Scenario A also undertakes as similar demand 

forecast for overall power generation as like as PSMP 2016 (Petrobangla, 2018). Within the 

short-term, gas request from the control segment will increase unassumingly – instead of drop 

strongly. Nevertheless, the gas penetration in the power system is confirmed in Scenario A to 

decrease progressively yet significantly over the prediction period. 

3.1.2 Scenario B: High Growth 

This situation accept that Bangladesh will be fruitful in seeking after an export-led financial 

development model, as specified in the 7th five-year plan. As such, this situation expect that the 

7th five-year plan’s short-term development targets will be accomplished which the GDP 

development rates at that point keep up at 7% from 2021 to 2041 (Petrobangla, 2018). Scenario 

B is too inferring a solid universal environment for exchange, recommending that Bangladesh 

can secure sufficient gas moment through pipeline associations from Asian nations as well as 

LNG from indeed more extensive worldwide sources. 

3.1.3 Scenario C: Climate Change 

This scenario is called a climate scenario. The Climate Change Scenario can expand if a speedy 

change in climate, or understanding of the climatic growth, takes place. For situation C, only a 

couple of coal-fired power plants will be created, whereas there will be solid improvements in 

renewables characteristic gas, atomic, and hydropower imports (Petrobangla, 2017). This 

scenario moreover expects that the taken a toll of such a cleaner vitality arrangement will have 

an effect on Bangladesh’s economy. 

3.2 Bangladesh Historical Gas Consumption 

The utilization of Natural Gas in Bangladesh has expanded significantly from 698 mmcf/d in 

1995/96 to 2,645 mmcf/d in 2015/16, nearly 4 times increment over 20 a long time (Petrobangla 

2021). So, it is clear that gas consumption is increasing day by day (Figure-2). 

3.3 Gas Demand Forecast 

The future gas demand forecasting of near future for each sector has been analysis here (Figure-

3) and the analysis correlated with three different scenarios (A, B and C) which has been 

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introduced earlier.  It has been long-established that gas demand is increasing in each and every 

sector. At scenario-A, gas demand is increasing in the power sector up to 2020, after that, it is 

decreasing because in that time government will start getting power from another source like a 

nuclear power plant, biofuel, coal-based thermal power plant etc. In case of scenario-C, GDP 

growth is the same as “Scenario A” that’s why the forecasting results are similar as “Scenario A” 

except Power sector. In case of power sector gas demand is higher than “Scenario A”. The 

reason behind it is, GDP growth rate is considered the same for “Scenario-C”, but at the same 

time focused on clean energy. So, decreasing the coal-based power plant, whereas increasing the 

gas-based power plant. Scenario-B maintains the increasing gas demand which is similar to the 

“Scenario-A”, but dissimilarities are value of quantity of gas consumption. Here, it is observed a 

high demand value over time. Because "Scenario B" assumed high growth of GDP, that is why 

the graph is steeper. As it assumed that the growth rate is high for scenario-B, so more power is 

needed for achieving a high growth rate. 

The gas demand in industry, domestic and transportation, same trending graph can be obtained in 

Scenario A, B, C but only deference is in value. Day by day household new gas users are 

growing, rural people who use wood cow dung for cooking and the gas are using in the 

transportation sector, the number of CNG base vehicle is increasing day by day. 

 

3.4 Future Gas Production Prediction 

Three gas production scenarios are presented here to analyze the future predicted value of gas 

production in Bangladesh.  

 

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3.4.1 Case A: Proven, Probable and Possible (3P) Reserves 

Case-A characterized best utilize of existing areas with no extra assets found. The prediction of 

production for the period 2016-2041 uncovered that the production of gas per day is 2500 mm cf 

up to 2022 where it rapidly declining (Petrobangla, 2021, 2018, 2017). Figure-4 illustrated the 

results. 

3.4.2 Case B: Proven, Probable and Possible (3P) Reserves with YTF Contribution: 

Case-B displayed best utilization of remaining fields with an Yet-to-find (YTF) contribution of 

6.4 tcf. The YTF commitment has been given to the Specialists as BAPEX unused, Shallow sand 

Deep offshore (Petrobangla, 2018, 2017). Production of onshore and shallow offshore and deep 

offshore areas from "yet-to-be-found" reserves has been predicted based on expectations in 

future exploration. It is expected that the YTF's contribution will give 2.6 tcf from modern inland  

areas and 2.1 and 1.7 tcf for shallow seaward areas and profound seaward areas, separately 

(Table-1).  

Table-1: Characteristics of 7 YTF (Yet to find) areas in Bangladesh (Petrobangla 2021; 
Imam,2013; Energy & Power Magazine,2021) 

Area Priority Location Petroleum system 

risk 

Exploration 

Company 

Expected Yet to 

Find 

Expected time 

development 

(Year) 

A High Onshore Proven petroleum 

system low risk 

IOC, 

BAPEX 

mixed 

3-5 TCF 

(Thin beds 1-3 

TCF 

5-10 

B Medium Onshore Proven petroleum 

system low risk 

BAPEX 

only 

4-6 TCF 

(Thin beds 1-3 

TCF 

7-12 

C High Offshore 

Shallow 

Proven petroleum 

system medium 

risk 

IOC 

licenses 

4-6 TCF 

 

5-15 

D Medium Onshore Proven petroleum 

system medium 

risk 

BAPEX 

only 

4-6 TCF 

 

10-20 

E Low Onshore Proven petroleum 

system medium 

risk  

Very Few 

Licenses 

Currently 

4-6 TCF 

 

15-25 

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F Low Offshore 

Shallow 

Not proven 

petroleum system 

high risk 

No license 

currently 

2-3 TCF 

 

15-20 

G High Offshore 

Deep 

Discovery 

medium risk 

IOC 

license 

No information 10-25 

3.4.3 Case C: Proven, Probable and Possible (3P) Reserves with an additional YTF 

Contribution 

Case-C denoted, the best utilization of present fields with a YTF contribution based on the 

description from Gustavson (2011), while it is expected that around 16-17 tcf can be created until 

2041 concurring to the Experts examination (Petrobangla, 2018). There's a noteworthy YTF 

resource accessible within the nation. The asset is accessible both as ordinary gas but moreover 

thin-bed assets at existing areas. The presence and advanced geological assessment by Gustavson 

(2011) of two autonomous sources "USGS-Petrobangla Joint Study of 2001" and "Final Updated  

Report on Bangladesh Petroleum Potential and Resource Assessment 2010" enable the 

Consultants to evaluate the yet to be found resources. The USGS-Petrobangla (2001) learning 

may be a precise and broad consider that speaks to the most punctual and best ponder to survey 

the Bangladesh’s unfamiliar gas asset potential. This consider decides that the unfamiliar gas 

assets of Bangladesh extend from 8 tcf (95% likelihood) to 66 tcf (5% likelihood) with a 50% 

likelihood of finding 29 tcf and a cruel of 32 tcf (Petrobangla, 2018). According to the Gustavson 

(2011) and the current exploration activities, Bangladesh has been divided into 7 sectors. The 

Proven, Probable and Possible (3P) reserves production forecasted value in case C illustrated in 

Figure-4.  

       

Figure-4: Proven, Probable and Possible (3P) reserves production forecast. 

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4. CNG (COMPRESSED NATURAL GAS) AS VEHICLE FUEL 

4.1 Composition of CNG 

Typically, CNG is over 90% methane and little sums of ethane and other hydrocarbons. CNG 

may contain nitrogen, carbon dioxide, and follow sums of water vapor. For the use of CNG as a 

vehicle fuel, CNG is removed from a gas delivery scheme at pressures extending from 0.3 to 1 

MPa, compressed at a fueling station, and stockpiled in vehicle cylinders at pressures of around 

20 MPa (Demirbas,2002; Bronson,2021). There is currently no uniform CNG pressure from the 

global NG vehicle industry. 

4.2 Conversion to CNG Vehicles 

The number of CNG changed over vehicles are expanding day by day. Individuals are utilizing 

CNG vehicles since of its endless financial benefits, security, ease of utilize and natural issues. 

Presently transport, truck, engine car, auto-rickshaw, van, microbus, human hauler and all other 

shapes of vehicles are changing over to CNG running motors. CNG vehicles infer a cheap fuel 

rate for the transportation of individuals and products (Momin et al,2016; Wadud & Khan, 

2011). As shown in figures 5, many CNG vehicles were during the 2015-16 period because of 

low fuel price. But after that, the ratio of CNG vehicles decreased gradually. On the other hand, 

the conversion rate of vehicles into CNG is decreasing day by day because of the gas crisis in 

Bangladesh. Now people are interested to convert their vehicle into LPG instated of CNG 

(Rezwanul 2021; Uddin et al, 2017).  

   

Figure-5: CNG vehicles in Bangladesh last decades(Uddin et al, 2017). Figure-6: Vehicles conversion to CNG last 

decades (Rubel, 2017). 

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4.3 Cost for using CNG 

CNG fuel price is lower than the petrol & diesel. CNG vehicle cost is normally a little bit greater 

than the petrol engine. Because it needs some extra kits for using CNG (Table-2). 

Table-2: CNG Conversion Cost 

CNG Conversion Cost 

Type\Size 60 Liter 90 Liter 100 Liter 140 Liter 

Sequential 50000 taka 52000 taka 58000 taka 65000 taka 

5. LPG (LIQUEFIED PETROLEUM GAS) AS VEHICLE FUEL 

5.1 Composition of LPG 

Liquified Petroleum Gas is a combination of commercially generated petroleum gases that are 

deposited under high pressure to maintain in a liquid state. LPG has a raised start temperature of 

roughly 755 K compared to 533 K and 589 K separately for gasoline and diesel. LPG is about 

inviting in discussing the levels of 2 to 10 percent (Gazco, 2021). Gasoline is naturally 

neighborly at a concentration of 1.5% (Demirbas, 2002). Care must be practiced when refueling 

with LPG to avoid freeze burns due to the cold temperature of LPG when it shifts from liquid to 

gas.  

5.2 Conversion to LPG Vehicles in Bangladesh 

Concurring to the insights of the Bangladesh Street Transport Specialist (BRTA), there are a few 

10,000 LPG-run vehicles on the country’s streets. Each month, around 90–100 modern vehicles 

are being changed over to run on LPG (Momin et al, 2016). Figure-6 represents the results. 

           

Figure-6: No of vehicle converted into LPG (Toma Group) 

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5.3 Cost for LPG 

LPG fuel price is lower than petrol and diesel but little higher than CNG. It is about 48 taka per 

liter. LPG fuel base vehicles are relatively costly than diesel and petrol base vehicle. Because, 

it’s needed some extra parts to burn LPG. On the other hand, to convert the current diesel and 

petrol base vehicle to LPG fuel base Vehicle need some kits which price vary with the volume of 

the cylinder (Indian Oil, 2021). Price of conversion of different size cylinder presented in Table-

3. 

Table-3: LPG Conversion cost list 

LPG Conversion Cost 

Type\Size 60 Liter 90 Liter 100 Liter 140 Liter 

Sequential 54500 taka 58500 taka 63500 taka 73500 taka 

6. COMPARISON BETWEEN CNG, LPG, PETROL AND DIESEL  

Table-4 & Table-5 provided a general comparison among different types of vehicle fuel 

(Kollamtodi et al, 2008; Lane, 2021; Norris et al, 2009; Semantic Scolar, 2021; Pikalu et al, 

2008). 

Table-4: Fuel comparison between CNG, LPG, Petrol, and Diesel (With the prospective of BD)  

Fuel CNG LPG Petrol Diesel 

Availability Available in 36 

cities 

Available in 14 

cities 

Almost all cities Almost all cities 

Infrastructure Pipeline network Fuel station Fuel station Fuel station 

Storage pressure 3000 psi 70-80 psi Normal-pressure Normal-pressure 

Fuel type Compressed gas Liquid when stored 

under pressure 

Liquid Liquid 

Octane rating 120 112 80- 90 40- 55 

Calorific value 52.5 MJoule/Kg 50.02 MJoule/Kg 44- 46 MJoule/Kg 42- 46 MJoule/Kg 

 

 

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Table-5: Comparison between CNG & LPG, Petrol, Diesel 

Feature CNG LPG Petrol Diesel 

Components The primary 

component is 

methane 

Propane and 

Butane are 

Primary 

components 

Higher 

Hydrocarbon  

Higher 

Hydrocarbon 

Source Natural gas and 

condensate wells 

Wet gas or 

petroleum 

Crude oil Crude oil 

Environmental 

effects 

Lesser GHG 

releases 

Releases CO2 

which is GHG but 

is cleaner 

Release more CO2 

than CNG and 

LPG    

Release more CO2 

than other vehicles  

Properties It is lighter than 

air and hence 

disperses quickly 

 It is heavier than 

air and hence 

disperse slowly  

It is heavier than 

air and hence 

disperse slowly 

It is heavier than 

air and hence 

disperse slowly 

Space CNG need more 

space than others 

LPG needs less 

space than CNG 

but more space 

than petrol and 

diesel storage 

No extra space 

requires  

No extra space 

requires 

Power loss Power loss is 

More than LPG 

vehicles 

Power loss is less 

than CNG 

vehicles 

Less than others  Less than CNG 

and LPG but 

higher than petrol 

Modification cost 

(taka) 

50000-65000 54500-73500 N/A N/A 

Vehicle weight Heavier than other 

fuel-based 

vehicles 

Lighter than CNG 

vehicles but 

heavier than petrol 

and diesel vehicles 

Lighter than CNG 

and LPG  

Lighter than CNG 

and LPG 

Mileage (Km/Kg) 36.8 

 

26.5 

 

33.16 

 

28.09 

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Use CNG is used all 

types of vehicles 

LPG is used 

mainly micro and 

private cars 

All types of 

vehicles 

All types of 

vehicles 

Fuel Price  42- 45 taka/m3 48 taka/liter 60 taka/liter 83 taka/liter 

Safety Easily disperse, 

hence has risk of 

CNG storage tank 

explosion and fire 

Since LPG is 

difficult to 

disperse so lesser 

risk of LPG 

storage tank 

explosion and fire 

than CNG 

Fuel tank 

explosion is low  

Fuel tank 

explosion is low  

Pressure CNG pressure is 

around 3000 psi 

LPG pressure is 

70-80 psi 

Normal pressure Normal pressure 

 

7. CONCLUSION 

Throughout the above study, it can be concluded as:  

• Natural gas demand in Bangladesh is growing day by day. But the ability of supply will 

be reduced with time due to shortage of reserves. 

• In "Scenario A", the gas demand inclining gradually in case of each sector and franchise. 

Although it is considered that the decrease of growth rate in 4.3% for this instance but 

the economy is expanding over the country and that’s why demand is enhancing. 

• In "Scenario B", High growth rate is considered. It means economy is expanding largely. 

So remarkable development needs to occur in every sector. So, the gas demand will 

become larger than "Scenario A". 

• In case of "Scenario C", it has been focused on climate change. So, here it has been tried 

to depend on clean energy or green energy. That’s why, natural gas demand not follow 

the "Scenario B" trend. 

• The production forecasting also analyzed in three cases. "Case A" described the 

production trending to decline over the year. Here, only taken existing field by 

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considering no single gas reserve will be discovered. Afterthought, “Case B”, 

forecasting described a better production rate because here it is considered as to add 6 

tcf. And last one, "Case C" prediction almost covered the demand.  Because in "Case C" 

it has been assumed a huge amount of natural gas reserve will be found in both offshore 

and onshore. 

• CNG base vehicle increasing day by day, but the fuel is decreasing day by day, because 

of the shortage of natural gas in the near future. 

• On the other hand, LPG vehicle conversion rate is increasing day by day, because people 

now are interested in converting their vehicle into LPG for the gas crisis in Bangladesh 

• Though the conversion cost of LPG is higher than CNG conversion, LPG is the best 

option as vehicle fuel in this present situation.   

 

Acronyms 

BD=Bangladesh 

BRTA= Bangladesh Road Transport Authority  

CNG= Compressed Natural Gas 

GDP=Gross Domestic Products 

Govt.= Government 

LPG= Liquified Petroleum Gas 

MMCF= Million Cubic Feet 

MMCF/D= Million Cubic Feet Per Day 

Petrobangla= Bangladesh Oil, Gas & Mineral Corporation 

PSMP=Power System Master Plan 

YTF= Yet-To-Find 

3P= Proven, Probable and Possible 

 

 

 

 

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