id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentence	flesch	summary	cache	txt
ajase-5752	Chinton, Emmanuel; Isaac, Donkoh Kojo; Nana Oware Acquah, Emmanuel	Forecasting Key Macroeconomic Indicators in Ghana Using a Time-Varying VECM with Conformal Prediction Intervals	2025	5	.pdf	application/pdf	2076	132	47	An alternative, EnbPI (Ensemble Batch Prediction Intervals), uses ensemble residuals to deliver approximately valid intervals under dependence and shift; while often paired with ML forecasters, it is model-agnostic and can calibrate VECM residuals too. LITERATURE REVIEW Time-varying VECM (TV-VECM) for Ghana Macroeconomic relationships in Ghana among inflation, the cedi/US$ rate, policy rates, money, output, and commodity prices are well known to be non-stationary with evolving long-run equilibria and shifting short-run dynamics (policy regime shifts, commodity price cycles, IMF programs, and disinflation episodes).	cache/ajase-5752.pdf	txt/ajase-5752.txt