American Journal of Business Management, Economics and Banking ISSN (E): 2832-8078 Volume 15, | August, 2023 P a g e | 1 www.americanjournal.org THE IMPACT OF ASYLUM ON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT (Jordan Case Study) Dr. Dina Ahmed Omar Professor, Northern Technical University/ Technical Institute/Ninawa/Iraq Dinaao@ntu.edu.iq A B S T R A C T K E Y W O R D S The Arab region is located at the crossroads of the continents of Africa, Asia and Europe, and has historically witnessed waves of refugees, and the movement of refugees is one of the most important factors driving economic and social change in the region. Asylum has a significant negative impact on economic and social development sectors, such as health, urban development, youth development and gender relations. To identify the positive effects of migration and mitigate its potential negative impacts, a multidimensional and multi-experienced approach is required. This study examines the concept of asylum and its types and the economic development that the phenomenon of asylum leaves on the Arab countries, including the experience of Jordan, which in turn affects all other variables in this country, the most important of which are the political, social and other aspects. The results of the study found that the refugee phenomenon witnessed by Jordan has negatively affected its economic development. Asylum, Positive and negative repercussions, Economic development, Jordan. Introduction The phenomenon of asylum is one of the ancient phenomena experienced by humanity through different stages of time, regardless of the reasons that produced this phenomenon, which is multiple conflicts, wars, conflicts and disasters, suffered by multiple civilizations and their scourge, but in the modern era the twentieth century was opened with the largest two world wars that left major humanitarian disasters that were of a clear emergence of the phenomenon in the international community and imposed itself in light of scientific, industrial and technological progress, and became clearly visible, prompting specialized thinkers and international law scholars to study This phenomenon and track it and track its results and the reasons that caused it and these studies constituted the basic reference for international law that dealt with this phenomenon at the international level and then took these references at the regional and local level of countries. Jordan is one of the countries in the world that has suffered from this phenomenon and has produced a set of pros and cons that have a clear impact on the state. American Journal of Business Management, Economics and Banking Volume 15 August, 2023 P a g e | 2 www.americanjournal.org 2- The problem of the study: The problem of this study lies in knowing the variables that affect the Jordanian state due to the different and multiple waves of refugees in various political, economic, social and cultural aspects and their role in shaping the total negatives and positives that occur in the environment of the Jordanian state. 3- Study questions: Based on the problem of the study, the following questions were: Q1: What is asylum, and what does the Jordanian state do towards it? Q2: What are the most important effects and consequences of the refugee waves on Jordan? Q3: What is the reflection of this phenomenon on Jordanian society? Q4: What are the expected future and orientalist scenarios on this phenomenon in Jordan? 4- The importance of the study: This study reveals the most important aspects that affect Jordan and measure their positive and negative effects on the state and society, and highlight its results so that it is easy to deal with this phenomenon within the limits of the possibilities available to the state. 5- The hypothesis of the study: This study proceeds from the main hypothesis that there is an inverse relationship between asylum and its repercussions on the Jordanian state, affecting economic development and various political, social and cultural aspects based on major variables that in turn control all other variables and have new reflections. 6- Objectives of the study: This study aims to reveal the impact of asylum on economic development and the most important variables that affect the Jordanian state as a result of the multiple and different refugee crises that came to Jordan in multiple and complex circumstances and their positive and negative reflection on the Jordanian state. 7- Study Methodology: This study imposed itself on two research approaches: The first was the historical method, in which the historical aspects, definitions and types of asylum were reviewed, while the second was the descriptive and analytical approach, which is based on the impact of asylum on economic development in Jordan. 8- Limitations of the study: Spatial boundaries: Jordan Time limits: 1921-2020 Human Frontiers: The Jordanian People and Refugees 9- Concepts and terminology of the study: -Asylum - Positive repercussions - Negative repercussions - Economic Development -Jordan This study will be divided into two sections: The first: addresses some of the concepts and the positive and negative repercussions of asylum. Second: The impact of asylum on economic development in Jordan. First: Definition of asylum and its types Linguistically, asylum generally means leaving one country to another, and a person is called a refugee when he takes refuge to live in another land due to injustice or seeking safety, justice, and a better and well-off life, while the population section of the United Nations defined asylum as a geographical American Journal of Business Management, Economics and Banking Volume 15 August, 2023 P a g e | 3 www.americanjournal.org phenomenon that means the movement of the population from one area One of the first concepts that adopted theories of asylum is the so-called population balance equation between the different geographical units, as formulated by John S. Mills. Mills, who assumed that asylum is only a form of population balance between the different global units, or in other words, that asylum helps to relieve population pressure in areas of economic hardship, in return for meeting the needs of the growing geographical units of labor, and thus asylum is considered one of the auxiliary operations To restore the balance between the need for human resources and the availability of capital. While the theory of international trade gave a similar vision of asylum, as it stated that the two countries are not Those with equal capabilities and production capacity can enjoy a kind of bilateral exchange of their available capabilities, capital goods and labour. In other words, trade and asylum contribute to raising the income of individuals for both countries. Positive content for both parties, whether they are sending or receiving countries alike, and Ray Rest summed it up for us by saying: The situation in which there is no loser, as the immigrant in moving to another country receives the high wage, in addition to the technical and vocational training that contributes later to the development process In the countries of origin, as for the countries that receive the migrant labor force, in this case they get labor that did not bear any significant costs in its formation. In general, several types of asylum can be distinguished, namely: 1- Permanent asylum, which is moving from one country to another with the aim of residing and earning forever, such as asylum Europeans to Australia and the Americas. 2- Temporary asylum, which is moving from one country to another with the aim of temporary residence and earning, such as The refuge of Arab workers to the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council. (Salman, 2014, 138) 3- Illegal asylum, which is the entry of refugees into a country without identification papers or visas and entry permits, prior or subsequent. 4- Human trafficking, which is the seduction of individuals, whether men, women or children, and facilitating their transfer to another country with the aim of employing them in illegal activities such as trading in organs, drugs or drugs. Prostitution (United Nations, 2015, 15). 5- Forced asylum (refugees and displaced persons), which is according to the 1951 United Nations Convention relating to the Status of Refugees. A refugee is a person who moves from a country to another outside the country of his nationality because of a well-founded fear of being persecuted because of his race, religion, gender, or membership in a social group. specific or because of his political views (ESCWA, 2009, 4). Second: the positive and negative repercussions of asylum Asylum has presented both challenges and opportunities for both sending and hosting countries, and the refugees concerned. There is ample evidence of the complex links between asylum and economic development: First: the positive effects: For refugee-receiving countries, the most obvious benefits are brain gain, without the costs of education and training. Xenophobia can be a problem in refugee-receiving countries, which in some cases may American Journal of Business Management, Economics and Banking Volume 15 August, 2023 P a g e | 4 www.americanjournal.org involve physical attacks on non-citizens. This not only negatively affects the social integration of refugees, but also regional integration and interstate relations. Second: the negative effects: For refugee-sending countries, some potential negatives associated with asylum include: (a) loss of skilled workers (brain drain) and the consequent negative impact on the quality of service delivery in basic services and reduced growth (b) potential inflation in the local economy due to remittances. On the other hand, the opportunities offered by asylum include the flow of remittances, which are a major source of foreign currency and have the potential to support the international balance of payments, reduce unemployment in sending countries, investments from expatriates, increase the possibility of trade flows between sending and host countries and charitable activities for individuals in the diaspora. and/or city associations that can assist in relief and development (United Nations, 9, 2011). Among the demographic effects that will affect the population and its increase and increase the volume of pressure on the various structures of the state and its resources, not to mention the social challenges that will overturn many things in society in terms of values, customs and traditions, and the emergence of new social problems as a result of the problems of poverty and unemployment and the new manifestations of this crisis in society and diseases. You join it, as well as service issues, and we do not forget the cultural changes that may occur through cultures, and all of this will inevitably affect "the most important factor, which is the security that preserves the security of the state and its people through the crimes that will follow, with reference to some of the betting operations that took place, and here we stand again Facing the security challenge. Therefore, given the impact of asylum on the socio-economic landscape in both refugee-sending and refugee-receiving countries, it is the duty of States (and RECs) to minimize the negative impact of asylum while maximizing its benefits through deliberate publicization and awareness-raising of asylum issues in refugee settings. Development (Qarbaa, 2019, 132). Mainstreaming asylum in economic development planning entails assessing the effects of asylum on the goals, objectives and activities of national/regional development plans, with a view to improving overall development outcomes. This requires integrating asylum concerns into all stages of development planning, including design, implementation, monitoring and evaluation. This ensures that asylum is seen as an issue that affects all aspects of human development and is embedded in the broader development strategy, thus promoting a coherent approach rather than piecemeal and uncoordinated action. In essence, this process constitutes asylum and development (AU, 2018, 37). Third: Economic Challenges: It is difficult to identify and enumerate all the effects, dimensions and challenges that Jordan faced as a result of the Syrian crisis, which, although it is possible to enumerate, it is not possible to fully define and enumerate its effects and dimensions, and diagnosing all the challenges resulting from it may not be easy for the following reasons: - The need to accurately link the causal relationship (causal relationship). - Difficulty separating the challenges and effects resulting from the Syrian crisis and those resulting from other issues such as population growth, poverty, budget deficit, and others. Sometimes the inability to determine the beginning and end of the series of challenges and effects. If we take an example of education, health or drinking water, then the cost of the student or the Syrian citizen differs from that of the Jordanian student or citizen, as the educational level of the Syrian student American Journal of Business Management, Economics and Banking Volume 15 August, 2023 P a g e | 5 www.americanjournal.org differs from that of the Jordanian student, as well as the Syrian need for health services exceeds that of the Jordanian citizen in terms of vaccinations and the incidence of chronic diseases. As for water, despite the lower consumption by Syrians, the majority of Syrian consumption is funded by subsidies. In addition, overcrowding and increased demand lead to a decline in the quality of service and an increase in its cost, forcing the Jordanian citizen to search for more expensive alternatives, and this also leads to an impact on the rest of the regions, where suppliers are forced Service (ministries) by transferring some employees, resources and water from the unaffected areas to the affected areas to compensate for the large shortage. Impacts and challenges can be identified from three basic levels: 1- At the macroeconomic level 2- At the sectoral level 3- On the security level In order to be accurate and to neutralize any abnormal or emergency annual factors, the situation will be compared between equal periods of time before and after the crisis, by comparing the conditions during the crisis period 2011-2016 and the period 2005-2010. Fourth: The Impact of Asylum on Economic Development in Jordan: Recourse has been left to indicators of Jordanian economic development (gross domestic product, market price in million dinars, per capita GDP in dinars, national exports in million dinars, national imports in million dinars, trade balance (exports-imports), unemployment rate, population, investments Foreign affairs, foreign grants, public debt, debt ratio of GDP, per capita share of public debt in dinars, number of tourists, tourism income in million dinars had negative effects on the Jordanian economy, as these variables declined during the period (2005-2016). 1- At the macroeconomic level: The Syrian crisis came at a time when Jordan was facing growing financial and economic challenges and problems. Table (1) shows the most important macroeconomic indicators and compares the rate of change before and after the crisis. Table (1) below shows that the gross domestic product has grown by 110% before the crisis compared to 34%. % after the crisis, and this shows that the growth in the gross domestic product decreased by 69% after the crisis compared to the period before the crisis. The decline in the per capita share is about 116%. As for the trade balance deficit, it increased by 40% before the crisis, while it increased by 7% during the period (2011-2016), and this indicates a decline in the trade balance deficit by 82%. % during the same period. As for consumer prices, they increased by 32% before the crisis, compared to an increase of 11% after the crisis. Thus, the rate of increase in consumer prices had declined by about 66% after the crisis compared to before the crisis, and at a time when the unemployment rate declined by 15.5% before the crisis, it increased to 18.6% after the crisis, an increase of about 20% between the two periods. While the population increased before the crisis by 11.7%, it increased in the period after the crisis by 56.8%. This is due to the approval of the results of the Population and Housing Census 2015. As for the value of direct foreign investments, it witnessed a decline of about 15% before the crisis, while it witnessed an improvement of 3.6% after the crisis. As for foreign aid (grants), it declined by about 20% before the crisis. The decline reached about 31% after the crisis. Grants and aid increased by 58% after the crisis, meaning that the decline in grants and aid increased by 58% after the crisis. The budget deficit increased by 119% before the crisis, to decrease to 36% after the crisis, and this American Journal of Business Management, Economics and Banking Volume 15 August, 2023 P a g e | 6 www.americanjournal.org constitutes an improvement of 131% when comparing the two periods. While the public debt increased by 53% for the period before the crisis, this percentage increased to reach 95% after the crisis, i.e. an increase of 79% between the two periods. As for the debt-to-GDP ratio, despite its decline during the period before the crisis by approximately 27%, it increased by 45% in the post-crisis period, an increase of 266%. And that while the per capita share of the public debt increased by about 37% before the crisis, the increase decreased to 24% after the crisis, and this is due to the large increase that was approved in the population census for the year 2015. As for the tourism sector, the number of tourists increased before the crisis by 159% While the number of tourists decreased by 22% during the period after the crisis, and this constitutes a decline rate of 120% between the two periods. At a time when tourism income increased by 149% before the crisis, it increased by 18% after the crisis only, i.e. a decline of 88% between the two periods. B- At the sectoral level: 1- Education: The education sector, especially in the northern and central regions of the Kingdom, is one of the sectors most affected by the Syrian crisis, and this is represented by the following: - Direct financial burdens on the general budget and the ministry's budget. Decreased level of education. Increased problems and violence among students. Additional costs for Jordanian families. It is worth noting that the number of Syrian students has reached about 125,000 students during the year 2016, and since the average cost of a Syrian student in various stages is estimated at about (840) dollars, the financial cost of Syrian students in government schools is approximately (103) million dollars. Table (1) the most important Jordanian macroeconomic indicators Economic indicators 2005 2010 Percentage change 2005- 2010 2011 2016 Percentage change 2011- 2016 the difference between 2005-2010 and 2011 -2016 change between 2005-2010 and 2011 -2016 Gross Domestic Product at Market Price (in Million Dinars) 8925 18762 110% 20477 27445 34.0% -76% -69% GDP per capita (in dinars) 163081 306920 88.2% 3276.25 2801.07 -14.5% -102.7% -116.4% National Exports (in Million Dinars) 257021 4216095 64.0% 4805087 4369.33 -9.1% -73.2% -114.2% National Imports (in Million Dinars) 744286 11050.13 48.5% 1344022 1363.99 1.5% -47.0% -97.0% Trade balance (exports- imports) -4873 -6833 40% -8634 -9268 7% -32.9% -82% Consumer Price Index (2010- 100) 75.8 100.0 31.9% 104.1 115.50 10.9% -21.0% -65.9 Unemployment rate 14.80 12.5 -15.5% 12.9 15.30 8.6% 20% 200% Population in millions 5.47 6113 11.7% 6.25 9.80 56.8% 45.1% 385.5% Direct Foreign Investments (in Million Dinars) 1407.00 1197.07 14.0% 1055.00 1092.60 16% 18.5% 123.9% External grants (in millions of dinars) 500.50 401.70 19.7% 1215 816.00 31.2% 11.5% 58.3% Budget deficit including grants (in million dinars) 477.50 1045.22 118.8% 1382.75 878.9 36.4% -155.2% 130.7% Public debt (in millions of dinars) 84% 61% -27.2% 65% 95% 45.3% 72.5% -266.1% Debt ratio of GDP 84% 61% -27.2% 65% 95% 45.3% 72.5% -266.2% Per capita share of public debt 1369.23% 1875.07 36.9% 2144.27 2662.99 24.2% -12.8% -34.5% Number of tourists 338.79 707.79 108.9% 419.57 327.66 -21.9% -130.8 -120.1% Tourism income in million dinars 1021 2545.18 149.1% 2431.5 2870.90 18.1% -131.1% -87.9% American Journal of Business Management, Economics and Banking Volume 15 August, 2023 P a g e | 7 www.americanjournal.org The above table was prepared by the researchers based on the data of: United Union, Jordan response plan for the crisis (2018-2020). mopic, p51-52 2- Energy: Jordan is an energy insecure country that imports 96% of its energy needs. The sudden increase in population due to the influx of refugees has increased the need for energy, not only for domestic consumption, but also for the sustainability of the provision of services, such as education, health and water. It is estimated that during the first five years of the crisis (2011-2015), the cumulative government subsidies for petroleum and electricity totaled $7.1 billion. According to the latest statistics, total residential electricity consumption increased by 34% between 2011 and 2016, while LPG consumption increased by 17% from 370,000 tons in 2011 to 433,000 tons in 2016. Moreover, refugee camps are not stable. power connection. The Energy Sector aims to provide clean, safe and affordable energy sources to both Syrian refugees and Jordanian communities through interventions within refugee camps and host communities alike. Responses should align with and build on Jordan's planned new strategic investments within Jordan's comprehensive campaign for sustainable energy solutions. Therefore this response plan has been developed with projects that will meet additional loads through renewable energy and energy efficiency (RE&EE) technologies and solutions. Raising awareness about energy saving and sustainable consumption, while building on existing capabilities and initiatives, is also a priority. 3- Environment: The Syrian crisis caused a number of negative environmental impacts on Jordan. For example, overgrazing and unsustainable agricultural practices, including gathering medicinal plants and logging, have increased. The Royal Department of Environmental Protection reported violent incidents including 177 bushfires, 25 logging, and 22 overgrazing during the period from January 2016 to January 2017. Examples include the growing trend of illegal logging to compensate for higher fuel prices, and overgrazing of livestock Due to the high cost of fodder and the unmet food needs of the Jordanian population and refugees, which is also reflected in the poaching of wildlife as families look for cheaper alternatives to domesticated meat sources such as chicken and lamb. Moreover, the annual production of hazardous waste in Jordan was estimated at 45,000 tons/year in 2015. The average production of pharmaceutical waste increased by 250% compared to the pre-crisis period. 4- Food security: Jordan is rated at low risk in the 2017 Global Hunger Index with a score of 6.7.8 nationwide, and 6.2% of Jordanian households are considered food insecure and vulnerable to food insecurity. However, these figures mask a stark worsening trend, with food insecurity as high as 26% in some pockets of poverty, and more than 70% of Syrian refugee families in host communities remain either food insecure or vulnerable and semi-dependent. Full on food aid provided by the international community. Growing demand for food increased consumer food prices by 15.56 points between 2009 and 2016. 5- Health The health sector in Jordan continues to face increasing needs and vulnerabilities with continued demand for services from refugees, changing disease epidemiology, and increasing rates of determinants of poor health. Rising healthcare costs, for both services and supplies, also raise issues of sustainable financing mechanisms for this increased demand. American Journal of Business Management, Economics and Banking Volume 15 August, 2023 P a g e | 8 www.americanjournal.org More than half of Syrian households suffer from severe or severe impairment of health, while about a third of the Jordanian population does not have access to comprehensive health insurance coverage. The health sector response strategy will focus on providing durable solutions by continuing to meet the immediate and short-term health needs of refugees while strengthening the national health system thus enhancing resilience. Therefore, the response includes a range of activities from direct interventions that ensure that the critical short-term needs of Jordanians and Syrian refugees are met, through support for primary, secondary and tertiary health services in camps, rural and urban settings, and systemic investments that strengthen the capacity of the national health system. The response also aims to build the resilience of the public health system through investments in information management and logistics systems. (United Union, 2018,18) 6- Justice: The Jordanian judicial system faces a number of challenges exacerbated by the Syrian crisis. In particular, the courts, legal staff and associated support services have been strained by a growing caseload associated with the large influx of refugees, many of whom lack important legal and civil documents such as birth, marriage and death certificates due to loss or damage in Syria. 7- Livelihood: Since 2016, the Jordanian government has made a number of policy shifts to create an environment conducive to achieving the goals of the Jordan Compact 13. This includes allowing Syrians in camps to obtain jobs in host communities, providing pathways for refugees working in the construction and agricultural sector to obtain work permits without sponsorship, and extending Grace period until the end of 2017 for work permit fees. However, disruptions to the macroeconomic environment due to the closure of regional trade routes, the persistence of a strong informal labor market, and low labor force participation rates are undermining Jordan's ability to stimulate internal economic growth. Besides, refugees still need opportunities that provide them with immediate cash injections as well as training possibilities to equip them with skills to provide added value to the labor market. Given Jordan's complex array of macro and micro economic development and humanitarian challenges, the Response Plan is designed to meet the immediate livelihood needs of vulnerable Syrian refugees and host populations, while addressing institutional and environmental shortcomings that impede full implementation of the Jordan Compact Goals. (International labor origination, 2016, 9) Conclusions: And it was as follows: 1- The influx of refugees affected all development plans and increased the population, which constituted a major pressure card on the infrastructure in all aspects. 2- Increasing internal problems such as poverty, unemployment, crimes, and others. 3- Clear pressure on the various state agencies, especially the security ones. 4- The presence of a permanent state of stability by the refugees in Jordan, and this will exacerbate various internal problems in the economic, social, political, cultural and other aspects. 5- There is no doubt that the new refugee communities will appear with new social and cultural phenomena. 6- Putting pressure on the state budget and its sources of income and expenditures. American Journal of Business Management, Economics and Banking Volume 15 August, 2023 P a g e | 9 www.americanjournal.org 7- The political dealings with asylum and refugees make the state's behavior in its external environment fall within internal and external balances. 8- The reflection of the reality of refugees on Jordanian society. 9- The obvious impact on the various levels of economic development. Recommendations: The recommendations were as follows: 1- Formation of a special body related to the study of issues of asylum and refugees. 2- Finding new strategies that would not affect society due to the presence of refugees. 3- Industrial investment encouragement to accommodate various unemployment issues. 4- Enhancing the security role in preserving all state facilities. 5- Cooperating with the countries of the region in order to find successful solutions to this situation. 6- The situation of the international community with the hardships that Jordan endured due to the refugee crises. Sources: 1. Salman, Haitham Abdullah, Kuwait Economic Magazine, Twenty-fourth Issue, Eighteenth Year, 2011. 2. Qirbaa, Muhammad Khair Farhan, “The Security Challenges Facing Jordan in Light of the Syrian Refugee Crisis,” 2019. 3. ESCWA, Prevailing Trends During Conflicts and Their Repercussions, United Nations, New York, 2009, pg. 4 4. African Union, Revised Africa Migration Policy Framework and Action Plan (2018-2027), 2018 5. Hindu, Megan, Linking Refugee Protection to Development and Policy Recommendations for Implementing the Development-Displacement Axis Approach, 2019. 6. The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia, International Migration and Development in ESCWA Countries: Challenges and Opportunities, 2011. 7. The United Nations, International Migration Report 2015, Migration, Displacement and Development in a Changing Arab Region. 8. United Uonin,Jordan response plan for the crisis (2018-2020).mopic,p51- 52http://www.jrp.gov.jo/Files/JRPExecutiveSummaryFinal.pdf 9. International labor origination, WORK PERMITS AND EMPLOYMENT OF SYRIAN REFUGEES IN JORDAN. 10. https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---arabstates/---ro- beirut/documents/publication/wcms_559151.pdf http://www.jrp.gov.jo/Files/JRPExecutiveSummaryFinal.pdf https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---arabstates/---ro-beirut/documents/publication/wcms_559151.pdf https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---arabstates/---ro-beirut/documents/publication/wcms_559151.pdf