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American Journal of  
Environment and Climate (AJEC)

The Threats of  Climate Change on Water and Food Security in South Africa 
Richard Kwame Adom1*, Mulala Danny Simatele2, Memory Reid1

Volume 1 Issue 2, Year 2022
ISSN: 2832-403X (Online)

DOI: https://doi.org/10.54536/ajec.v1i2.568
https://journals.e-palli.com/home/index.php/ajec

Article Information ABSTRACT

Received: September 08, 2022
Accepted: September 20, 2022
Published: September 24, 2022

Globally, water and food crises are exacerbated by climate change, population growth and 
changing lifestyles. These phenomena have resulted in escalating cycles of  civil unrest and 
conflicts.  In South Africa, climate change has led to increased temperatures resulting in 
numerous deadly heat waves and varying rainfall patterns contributing to deadly flooding 
in most provinces and droughts in others. These extreme climatic conditions significantly 
impact agricultural production and water insecurity nationally. Despite the strong impact 
of  climate change on water and food resources in the country, there is less education and 
inadequate data to address the impacts of  climate change, especially at local levels; information 
is seldom used in planning and decision-making while there is a lack of  actionable planning 
to mitigate the impacts of  climate change. This paper explored the weaknesses in the current 
climate change mitigation programmes in South Africa in the context of  water and food 
security using a mixed method approach of  data collection and related literatures. The 
finding established that while multiple policies, regulations, and programmes are designed to 
minimise climate change’s impact on water and food resources, the policies lack coherency at 
the formulation and implementation stages and are fragmented across various departments 
and institutions. This paper recommends a coordinated approach to tackling climate change 
and investment in research that will better understand the country’s climate programmes in 
addressing water and food security.

Keywords
Climate Threat,  Projection and 
Mitigation, Water Quality, Food 
Security, South Africa

1 School of  Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies, University of   Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
2 The Global Change Institute (GCI), University of  Witwatersrand, Johannesburg 2050 South Africa
* Corresponding author’s e-mail: richardquame1@gmail.com

INTRODUCTION
Over the past two centuries, the human population 
and the world’s economic wealth have multiplied 
three folds (Peterson, 2017). These two factors have 
increased resource consumption significantly, evident in 
agriculture and food production, industrial development, 
international commerce, energy production, urbanisation 
and recreational activities (Bruin et al., 2021). With a 
global population in excess of  six billion all sharing the 
basic human needs: water and food Boretti et al., (2019), 
these developments have significantly impacted the 
functioning of  the earth system and climate globally. The 
critical determinant of  climate consequences is how these 
are met at all scales. In the developed world, affluence, 
and more importantly, the demand for consumer goods 
for entertainment, mobility, communication and a broad 
range of  goods and services is placing significant demand 
on global resources and equally emitting dangerous gases 
into the atmosphere impacting climate and other earth 
systems European Commission (EU 2018).  
Different climatic conditions characterise the African 
continent, ranging from high aridity in the Northern 
and Southern regions to very humid conditions in the 
Central and Western regions. Notably, these climatic 
conditions are highly variable and unpredictable with 
regards to their characteristics and impacts (Nicholson, 
2017; Helbling et al., 2021). The cyclical periods of  
droughts and unpredictability of  precipitation patterns 
have contributed to the corresponding environment 
and social systems. This has threatened the continent’s 
livelihoods and economic development as it is whelming 

linked to agriculture. Biteye (2016) and Oluwatoyo et al. 
(2016) disclosed that over 70% of  Africans depend on 
agriculture for their livelihood.  Prolonged drought linked 
to climate change has adversely impacted farming and 
water provision in many key agricultural regions in the 
West, East and Southern regions on the continent and 
has contributed negatively to human livelihoods and 
economic prosperity, causing millions of  rural population 
to migrate to cities (Zwane, 2019). Furthermore, climate 
change has contributed to water and food insecurity in 
many developing countries and threatens international 
and peace stability worldwide (Nhemachena et al., 2020, 
UNFCCC, 2017). For instance, consistent prolonged 
drought in the West African Sahel, Kenya, Ethiopia, 
Somalia and the Darfur region have witnessed numerous 
instabilities to livelihoods due to lack of  water resources 
and drought-induced famines, loss of  livestock and 
pasture fields, as well as enduring farmer-herder conflicts. 
While some countries such as Morocco, Rwanda, and 
Ethiopia have made significant food production gains, 
the intensification of  agriculture across Sub-Saharan 
Africa still lags behind much of  the world (van Wijk et 
al., 2020). 
South Africa is not immune to the threat of  climate change 
on water and food security. Sustainable food production 
is critical in sustaining human health, economic 
prosperity and overall peace and security (Myers et al., 
2017). Currently, the country’s freshwater resources are 
under severe pressure due to rising population, overuse, 
mismanagement, intersectional competition, pollution, 
and declining precipitation. The largest freshwater 

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consumption comes from the agricultural sector, 
accounting for over 70% of  all the use in South Africa 
(du Plessis, 2017).  As the country’s population peaks 
at around 65 million by 2025, more than 80% of  water 
resources will be required to increase food production 
to feed the growing population (Boretti et al., 2019). 
This would include other strained water resources like 
groundwater. Current statistics reveal that more than 50% 
of  the country’s groundwater is under tremendous stress 
(Maddock et al., 2016). Various sectors have exploited 
water resources including groundwater, diminishing its 
availability, whilst others have heavily contaminated it, 
leaving it unusable. Sobowale et al. (2021) supports this 
view and indicated that groundwater reserves have been 
key to Eskom coal power generation for decades; however, 
the over-reliance on Eskom for power generation has 
resulted in overexploitation of  groundwater resources. 
Akhta et al., (2020) adds on by disclosing that urban and 
municipal waste, chemical contamination from mining, 
agriculture, and livestock contribute to a decrease in 
surface and groundwater resources. These losses in water 
quality are exacerbated by climate change reducing the 
availability of  water resources in all sectors.
Climate change has already altered the distribution, 
timing, intensity of  both rainfall and temperature and 
snow events in the country. For many provinces, earlier 
snowpack and thawing means less water is available 
during the growing season (Chersich et al., 2019). Atanga 
et al. (2019) highlight that over 80% of  small-scale 
farmers are largely relying on rain-fed  agriculture and are 
already being hit substantially by regular and persistent 
droughts and floods, both destroying crops and reducing 
productivity.
As temperatures are projected to rise by up to 1.50C 
globally in the 21st century, South Africa is expected to 
experience shorter wet spells (prolonged droughts) or 
heavier rains (causing floods), all of  which will contribute 
to reduced yield and water shortages (USAID, 2022; 
Hosea et al., 2021). By 2030, national crop yields are 
expected to decrease depending on the province (Mapisa, 
2017). For instance, Eastern Cape, Free State and Gauteng 
are expected to experience a 30% decrease in rainfall 
(Ncoyini et al., 2022).A reduction or change in long-term 
precipitation patterns subsequently leads to insufficient 
soil moisture, that cannot meet the needs of  crops and 
livestock at a particular time. In most cases, farmers are 
becoming increasingly water insecure, creating food and 
water insecurity (Ncoyini et al., 2022). 
With the threat of  climate change on the country’s food 
and water resources, the government has implemented a 
range of  national and sectoral policies, programmes, and 
strategies to mitigate climate change’s impact on these 
resources over the past three decades. Avenchenkova 
et al. (2019) alluded that the 2004 and 2013 National 
Water Resource Strategy incorporated climate variability 
in the short-medium-long-term planning across all the 
critical sectors of  the economy: agriculture, industry, 
energy, science and technology. It also incorporated 

into the policies ‘state-of-the-art’ water-related research 
and capacity development in all aspects of  planning 
to guarantee the accessibility of  constant high quality, 
comprehensive and current data, together with an 
instrument that will assist in examining the information 
collected (Carter et al., 2015). With these policies, the 
government has the tools to implement the best water 
resource management practices, that guarantee high levels 
of  water safety and asset protection under fluctuating 
climatic conditions and, in particular, funding for water 
preservation and water demand management (Adom et 
al., 2022). While these policies have achieved some level 
of  success, they have failed to address the challenges 
related to climatic extremes. 
Researchers, policymakers and managers engaging in the 
complex issues around climate change’s threat to water 
and food security have proposed different and diverse 
models to address constraints experienced in attaining 
water and food security. For example, Pilato et al. (2018) 
suggest that climate change should be integrated into 
planning, implementation and decision making and 
provide easy access to climate information, especially 
at the community level.  However, their study did not 
offer any concrete strategies or adaption mechanism to 
anticipate any future impact on the resources. Based on 
these gaps, this paper explored the weaknesses of  the 
current policies and programmes designed to address the 
climate change impact on water and food security under 
the following sub-headings: (a) climate literacy among the 
population in the country (b) trend of  climate change and 
its impact on water and food security in the country (c) 
climate change mitigation strategies to meet water and 
food security. Other topics covered by this paper include 
literature on climate change and food security in global 
and African contexts, contextualizing the relationship 
between climate change and food and water security. 
The Impacts of  climate change on Water and Food 
Security in Africa
In combination with other global drivers of  change, 
climate change presents a significant threat to Africa’s 
socio-economic development, human health, water, and 
food security. It is impacted significantly more than any 
other continent by climate change challenges and host 
to the majority of  the global developing countries and 
communities globally. This is regardless of  it making 
only 14% of  the world’s population and contributing to 
only 3.8% of  total Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions 
(just 1.59% from Sub-Saharan Africa (UNFCCC, 2020). 
Regional climate models have indicated that Africa’s 
Northern and Southern regions are predicted to have 
the worst impacts to climate change impacts associated 
with rising temperatures, changes in rainfall patterns and 
freshwater runoff, in regions that are already considerably 
warm and largely dry most parts of  the year (Lawal et al., 
2019). In addition, the Sahara and the Kalahari deserts 
are also in these regions, and these desert environments 
predominantly dictate weather patterns (Nsengiyumva, 
2019). Rainfall occurs in small areas within these 

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two sub-regions, primarily along with narrow coastal 
shorelines in South Africa and the land locked regions 
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Lesotho and Malawi (du 
Plessis et al., 2017). In contrast, the different situations 
exist in Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, and Egypt. Brief  seasonal 
snow cover is confined to a few major mountain chains 
in both regions (Nsengiyumva, 2019). However, Africa’s 
Central, Eastern, and Western regions have different 
climatic characteristics. These regions are endowed with 
significant waterways, huge lakes, enormous swamps, and 
pervasive underground waters (Dallas, 2014). Most of  
these resources are situated in the Central African sub-
region and the island countries. Moreover, the regions have 
average precipitations of  more than 670 mm per annum 
and moderately slight levels of  water extraction for their 
three primary consumption – farming, households and 
manufacturing, which were projected to be approximately 
4% of  overall annual extraction (Ahmed et al., 2014).
Recent projections of  climate change’s impact indicate 
that a temperature increase of  20 C could equate to a loss 
of  4.7% of  GDP across the continent by 2025 (Scott, 
2005). Most of  this will lead to losses in agricultural 
production and water security, with a further rise in 
temperature of  2.50 C worsening conditions. More than 
128 million would starve while 108 million will be affected 
by flooding and a rise in sea-level of  between 15 cm and 
95 cm (Mimura, 2013). 
Many scholars, including Connolly-Boutin et al. (2016), 
Mekou et al. (2013), have used more advanced scientific 
models, including the Milankovitch model, the two-
dimension climate models as well as the general circulation 
climate models, to argue that there are more threats of  
climate change on water and food security in Africa than 
predicted. Mekou et al. (2013) argued that climate change 
would affect development directly through changes in 
precipitation, evaporation and hydrology, sea-level rise, 
and changes in the occurrence of  extreme weather events 
(floods, droughts, storms), which will directly impact 
primary production, ecological systems, public health 
and poverty. This argument was supported by Mpandeli 
et al. (2019) that increased intensity of  droughts, floods 
and changes to growing seasons may have significant 
implications on soil productivity, water supply, food 
security, and in turn, human welfare and poverty, as well 
as biological diversity.
Many regions in Africa are already experiencing water and 
food scarcity as a result of  extreme weather conditions. 
These sentiments were shared by Thurlow et al. (2012) 
and UNECA (2019), who concurred that climate change 
is one of  the significant contributors to prevailing 
poverty, food insecurity, and weak economic growth in 
Africa today. Misra (2014) opined that climate change 
had increased variability in global hydrology and weather 
parameters, and increased weather extremities, largely in 
Southern Africa, whilst Mazibuko et al., (2021) agrees 
and adds on, stating that the severity and frequency of  
droughts, floods and storms have increased in every region 
in Africa, straining water resources and food production. 

More than 28 million people in the Horn of  Africa, 
Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia are currently experiencing 
severe food insecurity due to severe drought, which is 
the worst in the history of  those countries (Cervigni et 
al., 2016). Ironically in the Southern region countries 
such as Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and Madagascar, have 
experienced one of  the worst floods in the recent history 
of  the continent “Cyclone Idai and Cyclone Kenneth” 
(Charrua et al., 2021). These cyclones displaced tens of  
thousands of  families, leaving many food and water 
scarce. The two storms brought widespread flooding and 
destruction of  almost 780,000 hectares of  crops (Tavera 
et al., 2021). 
Renewable freshwater resource constraints constitute 
one of  Africa’s most critical challenges to sustainable 
development and human security. More than 60% of  
the continent’s population is projected to face the rising 
scarcity of  freshwater resources, exacerbated by climate 
change. Increased temperatures have been projected 
throughout the continent, leading to rising evaporation 
rates that will reduce surface and ground water runoff  
and freshwater availability. Subsequently, changes in 
food production, livestock and fisheries and water 
accessibility are projected to worsen (Dallas et al., 2021).  
This assertion is supported by Zwane (2019) that climate 
variability will impact the productivity of  irrigated and 
rain fed agriculture across the continent. The author goes 
on further to state that climate change will significantly 
affect food production by increasing water demand and 
reducing water availability in households’ consumption 
and other sectors of  the economy in most countries on 
the continent. 
Reductions in river runoff  and aquifer recharge are 
expected in most basins and semi-arid areas of  the 
southern region, northern and western parts of  Africa, 
affecting water availability in already water-stressed 
regions (Hamed et al., 2018). In the Southern and 
Northern regions, the large contiguous areas of  irrigated 
land that rely on snowmelt and high mountain glaciers 
for water will be affected by changes in runoff  patterns. 
At the same time, highly populated deltas are at risk from 
reduced inflows, increased salinity and rising sea levels 
(Bjornlund et al., 2020). Inherently, food and water security 
across the continent will be seriously affected (Appiah et 
al.,2021). Current maize and beans yields are projected to 
decrease by between 40%-45% by 2050 with the climate 
suitability of  most major crops is also projected to shift as 
climate warms (Rosenstock et al., 2018; Thornton; 2015). 
Increasing atmospheric levels of  carbon dioxide are likely 
to affect the nutrient content of  plants, resulting in severe 
protein and micro-nutrient cold spots in parts of  sub-
Saharan Africa (Medek et al., 2017). 
Climate Change Concept in the South African Context 
South Africa’s evidence of  climate change is substantial, 
with weather trends appearing to shift away from ‘normal’ 
over the past fifty years and reflecting similar changes seen 
in other parts of  the world (van Bronkhorst, 2021). Since 
the 1950s, the country’s average temperature has climbed 

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by about half  a degree, with weather stations recording 
fewer cold days and more warms days. Sea temperatures 
have warmed slightly, and wind speed along the Cape’s 
west coast appears to be picking up. (van Bronkhorst, 
2021). According to Godsman et al. (2019), South Africa 
will be between three to four degrees warmer, on average, 
along the coastal region and six to seven degrees in the 
interior regions. 
Data obtained from World Bank Group’s Climate 
Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP, 2021) cited from 
van Bronkhorst (2021: 5) disclosed that “the current 
climatic conditions, climate data between 1991 to 2020 

and projections of  between up to 2099.  The Figures and 
Tables below summarise the average annual precipitation 
as well as average temperature and climate projections 
in South Africa, stated by the National Meteorological 
Service of  South Africa
Many authors including Kusangaya et al. (2013), Davis et 
al. (2020) and Chersich et al. (2019), have applied different 
climate change models such as Integrated Assessment 
Models (IAM), and Intercomparison Radiation Codes 
for Climatic Models (ICRCCM) to project that rising 
temperatures are expected to continue in South Africa, 
with average monthly temperatures projected to rise to 

Table 1: Summary of  current climate statistics in South Africa
Climate Variables 1991–2020
Mean Annual Temperature (°C)                                                                                        20.3°C
Mean Annual Precipitation (mm) 450.0 mm
Mean Maximum Annual Temperature (°C) 22.0°C
Mean Minimum Annual Temperature (°C) 15.0°C
Source: National Meteorological Service of  South Africa, 2018

Figure 1: Average monthly temperature and precipitation in South Africa between 1999-2020
Source: Centre for Scientific and Industrial Research

Table 1: Summary of  current climate statistics in South Africa
CMIP5 Ensemble Projection                                      2020–2039 2040–2059           2060–2079       2080–2099
Annual Temperature Anomaly 0C                          +0.5 to +1.7    

(+1.20C)   
+1.4 to +2.9        
(+2.00C)

+2.4 to +4.4    
(3.20C)

+3.3 to +6.0
 (4.20C)

Annual Precipitation Anomaly (mm) -16.2 to +14.0  
(-1.6mm)

-21 to +11.9
(-3.7mm)

-22 to +13.2   
(-4.3mm) 

-26.1 to + 12.4
(-5.9mm)

Source: Meteorological Service of  South Africa, 2018

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2.0°C by the 2050s and 4.2°C by the 2090s, if  the current 
emissions persist. van Bronkhorst (2019) indicated 
that the most pronounced increases in temperature are 
projected for the summer months, between November 
to March. As temperatures rise, more intense heat waves 
and higher evapotranspiration rates will follow, impacting 
multiple aspects of  local economic development and 
agricultural productivity (van Bronkhurst, 2019). Higher 
temperatures are projected to be more pronounced 
in the country’s western, central, and eastern regions. 
These increases are expected to impact most in Northern 
Cape, Northwest, Eastern Cape and Limpopo provinces 
(Godsmark et al., 2019).
Climate change and variability have also significantly 
impacted precipitation trends (Chersich et al., 2019). 
Since the 1960s, there has been a marginal reduction in 
precipitation across South Africa. While annual rainfall 
trends are low overall, observations suggest that a 
significant decline has occurred in the Free State, Eastern 
Cape, Limpopo and Northern Cape provinces. High 
inter-annual rainfall variability is evident in the historical 
record. Above-average rainfall was received in the 1970s, 
late 1980s and mid-to-late 1990s, with below-average 
rainfall values were observed in the early 2000s (Ziervogel 
et al., 2014). 
This pattern is expected to continue, as suggested by 
Mpandeli et al. (2013) and Davis et al. (2021), who stated 
that South Africa is likely to become hotter and drier in 
the future. They go one to mention that the country will 
experience continued rainfall variability and temperatures 
rising, accompanied by extreme events like droughts, 
floods, and other climate-related hazards. This will likely 
result in adverse environmental impacts, including soil 
erosion, deforestation, recurrent droughts, desertification, 
land degradation, and biodiversity loss, including the 
country’s unique wildlife populations (van der Bank et 
al., 2020). Verschuur et al. (2021) further mentioned that 
climatic induced changes will lead to an intensification 
of  the country’s hydrological cycle and could have major 
impacts on the country’s water resources. Furthermore, 
Scholes et al. (2021) alluded that climate change will lead to 
shifts in the geographical distribution of  wetlands and an 
increase in the severity and extent of  coral reef  bleaching 

and mortality. Further, sea-level rise and increases in 
storm surges associated with climate change could result 
in the erosion of  shores and habitat, increased salinity 
of  estuaries and freshwater aquifers, altered tidal ranges 
in rivers and bays, changes in sediment and nutrient 
transport, increased coastal flooding, and in turn, increase 
the vulnerability of  some coastal populations (Verschuur, 
2021).

The Impacts of  Climate Change on Water and Food 
Security in South Africa
Many scientific pieces of  literature, including Chersieh 
et al. (2019), der Bank et al. (2020) and Masipa (2017), 
concurred that water and food are the resources that 
are impacted the most by the climate change globally, 
including in South Africa. Myers et al. (2017) alluded that 
climate change is already a measurable reality, posing 
a significant threat to water and food security in many 
South African households. Scholes et al. (2021) opined 
that South Africa generally is a water-scarce country. The 
country ranks as one of  the 30 driest countries globally, 
with an average rainfall of  about 40% less than the annual 
world average rainfall (Winter, 2018). The country has an 
average annual rainfall of  less than 500 mm, while that of  
the world is about 850 mm (Mahlalela et al., 2020). Rainfall 
varies considerably from west to east. In the northwest, 
annual rainfall often remains below 200mm (van de Walt et 
al., 2020). In contrast, most parts of  the eastern Highveld 
receive 500mm to 900mm of  rainfall per year. A large 
area of  the country’s centre receives about 400mm of  
rain, on average, with wide variations closer to the coast 
(Botai et al., 2018). Rainfall mainly occurs during summer 
(November through March), although rainfall occurs in 
winter from June to August in the Western Cape (Botai 
et al., 2018). Variations in elevation, terrain, and ocean 
currents influence temperatures more than latitude. South 
Africa’s climatic conditions range from Mediterranean 
in the south-western corner to temperate in the interior 
plateau and subtropical in the country’s northeast (Botai 
et al., 2018). A small area in the northwest has a desert 
climate. A large part of  the country has warm, sunny days 
and cool nights (van der Walt, 2020). 
Surface and groundwater resources are already declining 

Figure 2: Projected Climate Change in South Africa: Annual temperature and precipitation from 2040-2059 and by 
2080-2099:  Source: World Bank Open Data

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in the summer rainfall region due to less and more 
variable rainfall (van der Walt et al., 2020). The winter 
rainfall regions are also on downward trends as rainfall 
period have reduced significantly (Asfaw et al., 2017). 
There is also strong evidence that the risk of  multi-year 
droughts has increased substantially (Pascale et al., 2020). 
Lower rainfall and the high temperature that will increase 
evaporative demand (driven by increasing temperatures) 
are projected to increase and contribute to reducing soil 
moisture, translating to reduced runoff  in rivers. Reduced 
groundwater recharge in semi-arid areas render these 
communities vulnerable to food insecurity and unstable 
livelihoods, promoting unsustainable agroecological 
systems, which experience crop failures and reduce 
the productivity of  rangelands (Pascale et al., 2020). 
Similarly, Adom et al. (2021) disclosed that climate change 
impacts on the most vulnerable population the hardest, 
contributing to food insecurity, population displacement 
and stress on water resources.  
South Africa is highly vulnerable to climate variability 
and changes due to the country’s extreme dependence 
on rain-feed agriculture and natural resources, high levels 
of  poverty, particularly in rural areas and low adaptive 
capacity (Nhemachena et al., 2020). Currently, South 
Africa is facing severe pressure concerning water and 
food security, especially in the Free State, Eastern Cape, 
Limpopo and Western Cape provinces (StatsSA, 2018). 
While droughts are prevalent in South Africa, nevertheless, 
in recent years, their occurrence has increased, with more 
multi-year droughts. Summertime rainfall series in most 
provinces in the country have declined significantly, with 
Eastern Cape, Limpopo and Free State being the worst 
affected provinces (Amoah, 2021). Agriculture is the 
backbone of  South Africa’s economy and accounts for 
most livelihoods across the country. 
The sector employs more than 860,000 people and 
contributes significantly to food security and export 
revenues. Maize dominates the sector, followed by wheat 
and sugar cane and sunflower seed (Grote et al., 2021). 
Livestock production is a significant part of  the sector. 
While the country’s agriculture sector is diverse, it includes 
commercial and subsistence farming systems. Only 14% 
of  the country is considered arable, with just one-fifth 
of  this land characterised as having high agricultural 
potential. The climate is a critical driver of  agricultural 
activities and suitability across the country (Agbugba et 
al., 2021). 
The projected impacts of  changing climate on food 
production, agricultural livelihoods, and food security in 
South Africa are significant and warrant national policy 
concerns (StatsSA, 2018). They are crucially linked to 
prolonged droughts and poverty. For instance, the 2017 
statistics South Africa report revealed an increase in 
poverty and inequality trends in South Africa between 
2006 and 2017 due to climate variability and change 
(StatsSA, 2018). The report revealed that more than 28,2% 
of  the population live below the food poverty line (R441 
per person per month in 2015 prices) compared to almost 

a third (20,4%) in 2006. Between 2006 and 2009, South 
Africa experienced an increase in the proportion of  people 
living below the food poverty line rising from 28,4% to 
33,5% (StatsSA, 2014). This increase was followed by 
a notable decline of  12,1 percentage points in 2011 to 
21,4%, followed by an increase of  3,8 percentage points 
to 28,2% in 2017 (Leibbrandt et al., 2017). The significant 
increase in food poverty noted in 2009 coincided with 
global warming, affecting South Africa (StatsSA, 2018).  
Gornall et al. (2010), Zwane (2017) and Uddin et al. (2020) 
expand on the issue and state that climate change has 
impacted cereal crop production significantly. 
In addition, export of  agricultural products and intensive 
animal husbandry practices in South Africa in last three 
decades have also been affected (Zwane, 2017). These 
impacts are witnessed in the pastoral industry and 
increased pest damage and disease, directly impacting 
food security and livelihoods of  individual households. 
The adverse effects on food security and livelihoods in 
the drought-prone provinces have increased by 36% 
since 2012 according to the Department of  Agriculture 
Food and Fisheries (DAFF, 2015). Crop scientists project 
a reduction in mean yield of  13% in Free Sate, 11% in 
North Cape, and 18% in Eastern Cape (Nalley et al., 
2018). Nevertheless, maize and wheat will experience a 
higher yield by 2050 of  up to 5% and 8%, respectively, 
due to their greater resilience to heat-stress conditions, 
while maize and wheat are expected to be the most 
affected crops with a yield loss by 2050 of  15% and 11%, 
respectively (Estes et al., 2013). De Wit (2010) disclosed 
that households in the lowest income categories tend to 
be significantly more affected by lower yields than higher-
income households. This is likely due to their low adaptive 
capacity to shocks and stresses. Hence, climate change 
and food security in the country (Chen et al., 2021).
In addition to food insecurity, water scarcity is another 
significant threat facing South Africa (Misra, 2014).  
Currently, more than ten million households (25%) do not 
have access to safe and reliable drinking water (Schreiner 
et al., 2018).  While every projection suggests that if  the 
current demand persists without effective interventions, 
the water deficit in the country could be between 2.7 and 
3.8 billion cubic meters, a gap of  approximately 45% 
of  available water sources by 2030 (Donnenfeld et al., 
2017).  A f  study on Climate change in South Africa by 
the Department of  Environmental Affairs DEA (2013) 
revealed that climate change would significantly impact 
water supply nationally, but more impacts will be felt 
particularly drier provinces such as Eastern Cape, Free 
State Western Cape and Limpopo. 
These provinces are prone to the extreme water scarcity, 
with a significant number of  communities in these 
provinces are facing dire water shortages (Viljoen et al., 
(2018). The amount of  water available in their water 
reserves is already limited, while the demand continues 
to rise as the population grows (NW&SMP, 2018). Many 
provinces in the country have experienced less rain 
over the past 50 years and increases in the severity and 

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length of  droughts (Viljoen, 2018). Additionally, most 
provinces have isolated drainage systems with limited or 
single sources or small geographical areas with limited 
hydrological variability, including small farm dams in 
headwater catchments and water supply schemes for rural 
towns (Cilliers et al., 2014). For instance, the Western Cape 
water supply depends on limited drainage and generally 
from the western part of  the province, mainly from the 
Riviersonderend-Berg River Water Scheme. This scheme 
captures the flow of  three rivers – the Sonderend River, 
Berg River and Eerste Rivers. Unfortunately, these rivers 
are highly exposed to climate change variability and 
change (Jeffes et al., 2017). In Free State, there is less 
annual rainfall, less snowpack on the mountains, and 
earlier snowmelt resulting in less water available during 
the summer months when demand is highest (Ratikane, 
2013). These natural cycles of  water supply have made 
it difficult to effectively manage water to satisfy water 
demands throughout the year (Botai et al., 2016). 
Climate change is not only exacerbating the existing water-
related challenges, but it is creating new impacts directly 
linked to economic development, sustainable livelihoods, 
and infrastructure development, including water quality-
related issues. Projected impacts are due to changes in 
rainfall and evaporation rates, wind speed, air temperature, 
soil texture, geology, land cover, and topology of  water 
catchments across South Africa (Oduniyi, 2018). A 
critical impact of  climate change on water resources is 
the changes in runoff  across the country (Ncube et al., 
2016). Under a wetter future climate scenario, significant 
increases in runoff  would result in increased flooding, 
human health risks, ecosystem disturbance and aesthetic 
impacts (Kusangaya et al., 2013). Drier future climate 
scenarios would reduce surface water availability but 
would not exclude the risk of  extreme flooding events 
(Dennis et al., 2012). Projections for the national runoff  
will range from a 20% decrease to a 60% increase based 
on an unmitigated emissions pathway, which reflects 
substantial uncertainty in rainfall projections (Dennis et 
al., 2012). The range increases along the eastern coastline 
and central interior to decreases towards the Western and 
Northern Cape (du Plessis et al., 2017). Provinces with 
the highest risk from extreme runoff  include Kwazulu-
Natal, parts of  southern Mpumalanga and the Eastern 
Cape, other show neutral to reduced risk from runoff, 
except for the central and lower Orange River region (du 
Plessis et al., 2017).
Other risks directly impacted by climate change are the 
livelihoods of  people. These range from the prospect of  
increasingly poor health that will result from air pollution 
(the projected increase in the number of  inversions will 
trap pollutants in the atmosphere close to the ground), 
heat stress) and the possibility of  increased flooding 
(Bein et al., 2020). The combination of  water scarcity 
and rising temperatures will impact sectors of  the 
economy that are mainly linked to ecosystem goods and 
services agriculture, manufacturing, commerce and trade, 
transport and communication infrastructure (Mancosu 

et al., 2015; Furukawa et al., 2021).). The livelihoods of  
people who may be most severely affected are those 
whose asset bases, may be damaged or destroyed 
(Demekas et al., 2021).  Hallegatte et al., (2020) concurred 
that the first people to suffer most of  the climate change 
consequences are the poor, who are usually constrained 
to living in risk-prone areas.
 
Legislation and Policies Governing Climate Change 
in South Africa
Climate change is a global threat, complex, and 
unavoidable (Berlie, 2021). Comprehensive studies on 
the effect of  climate variability and change on natural 
resources, including water and food, remain a serious risk 
to many countries globally, including South Africa (Affoh 
et al., 2022). South Africa is among the countries at the 
forefront globally to tackle climate change challenges. The 
country agreed to the “United Framework Convention 
on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1997 and ratified the 
Kyoto Protocol in 2002 (Avenchenkova et al., 2019). Over 
the past twenty years, South Africa has implemented a 
range of  national and sectoral policies, programmes, and 
strategies to mitigate climate change effects on water and 
food resources (See Figure 3). Similarly, Corfee-Morlot 
et al. (2009) alluded that South Africa has put one of  
the most elaborate and consultative climate governance 
systems observable among developing and emerging 
economies. Furthermore, van der Bank et al. (2020) 
opined that South Africa, post-independent in 1994, has 
formulated and implemented diverse national climate 
programmes and policies to meet the Paris Agreement of  
minimising emissions. 
The National Water Resource Strategy NWRS of  2004 
and 2013 played a critical role in the government’s 
IWRP procedure, which promotes the contemporary 
preservation of  the “water balance reconciliation 
strategies” for water management areas which have been 
developed recently for water provision 224 schemes for up 
to 75 per cent of  the country’s population, and the areas 
which, together, generate well over 80 per cent of  the 
national GDP. Avenchenkova et al. (2019) alluded that the 
current policy, for instance, the NWRS of  both 2004 and 
2013, have integrated climate variability contemplations 
in the short, medium and long terms water developments 
across all the critical sectors of  the economy, “agriculture, 
industry, energy, science and technology”. It has also 
promoted the sustenance of  “state-of-the-art water-
related research and capacity development in all aspects 
of  climate change” to guarantee the accessibility of  
constantly high quality, comprehensive and current data, 
as well as an instrument that will assist in examining the 
information (Mthembu et al., 2021). 
Through the policies, they have implemented the best 
watersheds and water resource management practices 
that guarantee a greater level of  water safety, and the 
asset protection under fluctuating climatic conditions 
and, in particular, funding in water preservation and water 
demand management (Lukey, 2020)

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While multiple policies, regulations and programmes 
have been designed to minimise climate change’s impact 
on water and food security, ensuring a coherent policy 
formulation and implementation both vertically and 
horizontally remained a severe challenge due to the 
fragmentation nature of  responsibility of  climate policy. 
Moreover, the country’s general climate plan trajectory is 
not on a sustainable platform (Avenchenkova et al., 2019).  
This highlights that there a lack of  clarity among 
government structures. 
This has led to poor coordination on how the policies 
should be aligned and implemented in most cases. The lack 
of  alignment and clarity has impacted the effectiveness 
of  the policies, especially at the implementation level. 
The common consensus among many scholarly works 
of  literature, such as Avenchenkova et al. (2019) and 
Zhuwakinyu (2019), is that the existing policies and 
strategies are silent on building capacity to deal with 
climate change and other related challenges. For instance, 
one of  the critical factors is limited human and financial 
resources, an absence of  right and suitable expertise 
and skills, inadequate research, and under-resourced 
institutions to implement policies to address the climate 
change debacle effectively. 
These constraints are aggravated by the growing 
complexities of  the task involved in formulating and 
implementing sectoral and multisector decentralisation 
and resilience policies. It was indicated that these 
constraints are more severe at provincial and municipal 
levels (Zhuwakinyu, 2020). The country’s leadership 
should evaluate the numerous policy solutions to combat 
these threats. 

METHODOLOGY
This paper aims to investigate the impact of  climate 
change on water and food resources in South Africa. It was 
carried out through a comprehensive study of  the relevant 
literature and empirical research based on the mixed 
research approach of  quantitative and quantitative data.

Study Area
While this study covers the whole of  South Africa, data 
collection for this study was limited to some selected 
communities in (Bloemfontein, Fickburg, Winburg, 
Bethlehem, Welkom and Harrismith) in the Free State 
Province. This province was chosen due to its strategic 
location in the country. The province is centrally located 
in the country and is dominated by agricultural production 
(Puukka et al., 2012). Agriculture in the province is highly 
dependent on rainfall. Only 10% or less of  the arable 
land is under irrigation (Botai et al., 2016). The province 
contributes about 40% of  the total national white maize 
production, mainly used for human consumption, and 38% 
of  yellow maize, mainly used for animal feed (Agbugba 
et al., 2020). The climatic condition of  the province is 
characterised by warm to hot summers and cool to cold 
winters (Moeletsi et al., 2012). This semi-desert area also 
experiences fluctuations in temperature from day to night. 
Areas in the east experience frequent snowfalls, some the 
high precipitation, whilst the west can be extremely hot in 
summer (Ndlovu et al., 2021). Almost all precipitation falls 
as brief  afternoon thunderstorms during the summer, with 
aridity increasing towards the west. Frost occurs throughout 
the region, usually from May to early September in the west 
and up to early October in the east (Botai et al., 2016). 

Figure 3: Timeline of  climate-related policies and programmes from 2004-19  
Source: White Paper on National Climate Change Report

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Research Design
This study employed both qualitative and quantitative 
methodologies to explore the impact of  climate change 
on water and food security in South Africa. The qualitative 
approach includes participatory rural appraisal (PRA), 
such as the historical trend analysis and face-to-face and 
in-depth interviews. This method was used to establish 
the general perceptions of  climate change and variability 
on water and food production, historical climate changes, 
and adaptation strategies to address climate change. The 
quantitative method employed the use of  a household 
questionnaire survey. The approach was used to assess 
the literacy levels of  climate changes and weather 
pattern variation and adaptability over the past ten 
years, the impact of  climate on water accessibilities and 
agricultural activities among the population. The content 
in documents from journals, book chapters, government 
gazettes, and minutes was used to obtain data on 
legislation, policies, regulations, and strategies designed 
to address climate change and its associated impact on 
water and food production in South Africa.

Sample Population and Size
A total of  ten in-depth interviews were conducted 
with respondents from the Department of  Water and 
Sanitation (DWS), Department of  Food Agriculture and 
Fisheries (DAFF), and the lecturers and students within 
the Department of  Environment and Geography of  the 
University of  Free State. Owing to the sheer size of  the 
population, a stratified and proportional sampling method 
was applied. The number of  respondents picked from an 
institution was based on the total number of  employees 

within the department. Based on this approach, three 
interviewees were picked from the DWS, two from 
DAFF and five from the Department of  Environment 
and Geography from the University of  Free State.
A total of  150 questionnaires were distributed to 
municipal officials in management positions, farmers 
and community members. Due to the massive target 
population, a stratified, proportional probability sample 
was also applied. According to Howell et al., (2020), 
an appropriate sampling fraction for a homogenous 
population is 10%. 
This paper’s sample fraction was 30% (150 of  500 
target population). This sample can thus be regarded 
as the target population. Out of  the 150 questionnaires 
distributed, 100 were returned, resulting in a response rate 
of  67%. According to Perneger et al. (2020), a response 
rate of  at least 50% can be regarded as satisfactory for 
analysis, while 60% and 70% are ‘good’ and ‘very good’, 
respectively. The biographical details of  the respondents 
were assessed using a series of  questions on their post, 
age, experience and educational attainment. These 
variables were deemed relevant because the researchers 
were looking for levels of  understanding of  climate 
change among the general population, the impact of  
climate change on water security and food production 
and adaptation and coping strategies

Data Analysis 
Both the qualitative and quantitative data obtained were 
analysed concurrently. The quantitative data was analysed 
using descriptive statistics of  SPSS Windows Version 21. 
This technique enabled data to be captured, analysed and 

Figure 4: A map of  the study site Free State Province. Source: Free State Provincial wall map. Mapstudio.co.za

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produced frequency tables and diagrams that ensured 
quick interpretations of  the data obtained. The qualitative 
data obtained from interviews were analysed using the 
thematic analysis technique. Thematic analysis technique 
was used to classify data into themes for interpretation 
and discussions.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Assessment of  Climate Change Literacy
Although most of  the population is aware of  climate 
change and agree that some intervention is required, 
the ordinary person appears incompetent to rise to the 
challenge.  The magnitude of  this challenge was captured 

Figure 5: Literacy levels of  Respondents on climate Change. Source: Field survey 2021

in this paper. The results on climate change literacy are 
presented in Figure 5. 
The survey evaluated climate change literacy among the 
respondents using socio-economic and demographic 
factors these include; gender, age, education, educational 
attainment, place of  location and income status. These 
variables were used to establish a holistic picture of  
climate change literacy and its determination across the 
country. The statistical breakdown revealed that the 
strongest predictor of  climate change literacy is education 
by far. Additionally, employed and wealthier individuals 
and those living in urban areas are more aware of  climate 
change related issues. The results further established 
that they differ according to gender, with men being 
more climate change literate than men. The changing 
environment determines climate change literacy. For 
instance, a respondent who was engaged in an in-depth 
interview disclosed that: 
“When we speak of  climate, we refer to the long-term 
average of  the individual weather conditions that we 
experience every day. 

He further disclosed that our climate is important because 
it determines how and where we live, which foods we can 
grow, our sources of  water for irrigation and drinking, 
and how we organise our societies and our economic 
activity.” 
The views of  these respondents confirmed the 
observation of  (Helbling et al., 2021) that climate literacy 
will assist the population to translate cognitive judgement 
(perception of  temperature changes) to evaluative 
judgement (understanding the long-term consequences) 
of  the climate change to livelihoods and the environment.
  
Climate Change Projection and its Impact on Water 
and Food Security in Free State
This paper obtained data on climate change projections 
and their impacts on water and food production in the 
Office Centre for Scientific and Industrial Research 
(CSIR). Figure 6 shows projected changes in annual 
average temperatures in Free State Province. The data 
revealed increasing temperatures throughout the province 
between 2021-2050. 

Figure 6: Projected changes in annual average temperatures throughout Free State between the periods of  2021-
2050. Source: Centre for Scientific and Industrial Research, 2019s

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Both Figures 7 and 8 project increases in the number of  
rainfall days and increase intense storms and flooding 
events across the province. Climate model projections 
summarised both indicate that the Free State’s surface 
temperature and precipitation, both minimum and 

maximum are likely to fluctuate during the 21st century 
(superimposed on the existing observed climate). Further, 
regional climate modelling suggests that mid-summer 
rainfall over the province may become more extreme (see 
Figures 7 and 8). 

Figure 7: Projection of  annual average rainfall the province between 2021-2050. 
Source: Centre for Scientific and Industrial Research, 2019

Figure 8: Projected changes in annual average number of  rainfall Free State between 2021-2050. 
Source: Centre for Scientific and Industrial Research

Climate Change Impacts on Water and Food Security
Based on projections illustrated in Figures 6, 7 and 8, this 
paper analysed the levels of  impact of  climate change 
on water and food security in their community. Table 2 

portrays the answers of  respondents
Table 2 revealed that of  the eighteen variables assessed 
under ‘not vulnerable’, ‘fairly vulnerable’ ‘, very vulnerable’ 
and extremely vulnerable’ on water and food security, 16 
of  them, representing 89%, are regarded as either ‘very 

Table 3: Levels of  climate change impacts on water and food security
{∑fx/n)}                                                                                                                  Not 

Vulnerable
Fairly
Vulnerable

Very
Vulnerable

Extremely
Vulnerable

Reduction in crop yield, food availability 
and increase in food inflation

Respondents(100) 0 5 10 85
% 0.0% 5.% 10% 85%

Higher cost of  agricultural 
production due to high cost of  water

Respondents (100) 0 12 20 68
% 0.0% 12% 20% 68%

The intensity of  drought frequency, 
duration and lengthen of  abstraction

Respondents (100) 2 20 55 23
% 2% 10% 55% 23%

Impacts on the stability of  food 
Supplies and food utilisation

Respondents (100) 12 20 55 25
% 12% 10% 55% 267%

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or extremely vulnerable’. These answers suggest that 
climate change significantly impacts their communities’ 
food production and water accessibility. For instance, a 
commercial farmer who was engaged in an interview said 
that: 
“Climate change alters the frequency and intensity of  
rainfall, floods and droughts, causing significant impacts 
on agriculture and food production. While food shocks 
and stressors affect all people, women, indigenous 
populations, subsistence farmers, pastoralists and fishers 
are disproportionately affected.”
This view was supported by another interviewee in the 
Department of  Environment at the University of  Free 
State who was engaged in an in-depth interview. He 
mentioned that:
“Climate change negatively affects freshwater ecosystems 
by altering streamflow and water quality, posing risks to 
drinking water even with conventional treatment. The 
risks are increased temperature, increases in sediment, 
nutrient and pollutant loadings due to heavy rainfall, 

reduced dilution of  pollutants during droughts and 
disruption of  treatment facilities during floods. 
More floods and severe droughts are predicted. Changes 
in water availability will also impact socio-economic 
livelihoods, health and food security in the province as 
it has already proven to trigger much civil instability in 
the country.

Mitigation strategies of  Climate Change
Based on the outcomes of  respondents towards impacts 
of  climate change on water and food production, 
respondents were asked to suggest mitigations strategies 
based on marked out variables. Table 4 depicts the views 
of  the respondents
The breakdown of  the table suggests the majority of  the 
respondents regarded mitigation strategies enlisted as 
either ‘a priority’ or ‘high priority’. Some of  the outcomes 
in Table 3 revealed that 60% of  the respondents agreed 
that indigenous knowledge and local coping strategies 
should be used as a baseline and starting point for any 

Reduction in availability of  water for 
human consumption and livestock

Respondents (100) 0 5 40 55
% 0.0% 5% 40%. 55%

Reduction of  underground storage, 
increase of  melting snow leading to 
increase in runoffs and flooding

Respondents (100) 10 15 55 20
% 10% 15% 55% 20%

Induration and increased damage in 
low-lying coastal areas affected by 
sea-level use with storms surges

Respondents (100) 5 20 45 30
% 5% 20% 45% 30%

Rising temperature increases 
agricultural pests and impacts crop's 
survival

Respondents (100) 20 45 30 5
% 20% 45% 30% 5%

Increased evaporative demand 
from crops as a result of  higher 
temperature.

Respondents (100) 20 35 30 15
% 20% 35% 30% 15%

Cultivated become unsuitable for 
cropping, and tropical grassland 
becomes increasingly arid

Respondents (100) 10 18 29 50
% 10% 18% 29% 50%

Rising of  sea levels and coastal 
erosion

Respondents (100) 15 18 45 22
% 15% 18% 45% 22%

Impact on freshwater accessibility 
and quality and prices of  water

Respondents (100) 0 5 25 70s
% 0.0% 5% 25% 70%

Intensification and duration of  
heat waves lead to crop failures and 
diseases in livestock and farmers

Respondents(100) 5 16 40 34
% 5% 17% 42% 36%

The risk of  severe storms, including 
intense tropical cyclones and intense 
thunderstorms, leading to loss of  life, 
injury and damage to infrastructure 
also increases

Respondents  (100) 5 8 40 47
% 5% 8% 40% 47.%

Climate change worsens existing 
vulnerabilities and adds to the 
pressures on the environment and 
natural resources

Respondents (100) 5 10 32 53
% 5% 10% 32% 53%

Source: Field survey 2021

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Table 4: Perspectives of  respondents on the levels of  priorities of  mitigation strategies
{∑fx/n)}                                                                                                                  Not a 

Priority
Fairly
Priority

Priority High 
Priority

Encourage sound management and protection of  
freshwater resources

Respondents (100) 3 10 35 52
% 3% 10% 35% 52%

Promote cooperation on shared water resources 
and encourage low-cost strategies with multiple 
benefits.

Respondents (100) 5 12 30 53
% 5% 12% 30% 53%

Strengthen water-sector governance, finance and 
institutions

Respondents (100) 2 10 40 58
% 2% 10% 40% 58%

Improve adaptation planning among the 
population, encourage research in climate 
change development

Respondents (100) 10 15 45 30
% 10% 15% 45% 30%

Develop awareness of  flood risk and 
identification of  adaptation measures

Respondents (100) 18 15 40 27
% 18% 15% 40% 27%

Co-exploration of  climate data and information 
needs

Respondents (100) 10 15 45 35
% 10% 15% 45% 35%

Use climate information to improve and plan 
adaptation measures

Respondents (100) 20     35 25 20
% 20% 35% 25% 20%

Use climate information in future planning and 
develop low-cost strategies with multiple benefits.

Respondents (100) 20 45 30 5
% 20% 45% 30% 5%

Factor in weather-driven mitigation into the 
design and construction of  development projects

Respondents (100) 10 15 35 40
% 10% 15% 35% 40%

Promote sustainable growth, especially in rural 
communities

Respondents (100) 5 10 35 50
% 5% 10% 35% 50%

Promote climate-friendly agriculture such as 
efficient, clean energy and micro-irrigation

Respondents (100) 0 5 25 70
% 0.0% 5% 25% 70%

Provide easy access to weather and climate 
information, especially to women who make up 
a large percentage of  the agriculture workforce 
and are the most vulnerable

Respondents (100) 5 15 25 65
% 5% 15% 25% 65%

Promote multi-disciplinary and multisectoral 
institutions and processes.

Respondents(100) 5 16 40 39
% 5% 17% 40% 34%

Use of  indigenous knowledge and local coping 
strategies as a baseline and starting point of  
adaptation planning

Respondents  (100) 0 8 32 60
0.0% 8% 32% 60%

Apply climate forecasts to manage water 
resource operations, provide more versatile 
inter-basin transfer schemes and more flexible 
operating rules for water systems

Respondents (100) 5 10 44 41
5% 10% 44% 53%

Source: Field survey 2021

planning programme on climate change adaptation. In 
comparison, 70% of  the concurred that climate-friendly 
agricultural practices such as efficient, clean energy and 
micro-irrigation should be promoted. For instance, an 
expert in the Department of  Environment and Economic 
Planning who was engaged in an interview disclosed that:
“Although there is a large body of  knowledge within 
local communities on coping with     climatic variability 
and extreme weather events, rapidly changing climate 
conditions will require upgrading local knowledge 
with more scientific observations and establishing 

collaboration among neighbours and neighbouring 
countries to transfer knowledge from areas already 
experiencing these changes” 
This view was buttressed by an expert in the Department 
of  Geography and Environmental Science at the 
University of  Free State disclosed that:
“There is an urgent need to strengthen the capacity 
of  grassroots organisations to make efficient use of  
available data. Provision of  data to end-users’ entails 
power dynamics between the providers and end-users 
and among end-users (e.g. men and women). Local 

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communities need access to global information and 
analyses specifically tailored to their needs that support 
their specific adaptation and planning requirements. This 
needs to cover markets and weather and climate and 
requires invigorated extension services”.
There was agreement amongst most participants that 
that investment is required in enhancing hydrological 
data, institutions and governance, education and 
capacity enrichment, risk assessment and knowledge 
sharing. Policies are needed to ensure all stakeholders’ 
representation, participation, behavioural change, and 
accountability, including the private and private sectors. 
Mitigation strategies need to integrate targeted strategies 
that help vulnerable populations disproportionately 
affected by climate change impacts.

ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSIONS
This paper explores the impact of  climate change on 
water and food security in South Africa under the 
themes; of  climate literacy, climate change projections 
and its impacts on water and food production and the 
mitigation strategies. Our findings revealed that although 
a significant number of  the population in South Africa 
are cognisant of  climate change and its impacts on 
livelihood. However only 33% of  the population are 
climate literate, suggesting that they understand causes, 
impacts and adaptation strategies. Furthermore, it was 
established that the socio-economic and demographic 
factors significantly influence the literacy and interest 
population towards climate change. For instance, it was 
established that educated individuals with high income 
and access to information and urban dwellers are more 
informed of  climate change dynamics than rural, poor 
and rural dwellers. Moreover, adult young men are 
more abreast of  climate change than women. These 
findings confirmed the views of  (Simpson et al., 2021) 
that climate change awareness and risk perceptions are 
unevenly distributed across population groups, countries, 
and regions. The highest levels of  climate literacy or 
awareness are mostly within educated and high incomes 
households and developed economies. By contrast, most 
lower-income, less educated households and developing 
countries from Africa to the Middle East and Asia are less 
climate literate and less interested in on issues pertaining 
to climate change. 
This assertion was confirmed by Lee et al. (2015), who 
stated that geographic location (urban/rural) determines 
climate literacy. In developed countries such as the 
USA, the most important predictors of  climate change 
awareness are civic engagement, communication access 
and education. Residents with higher levels of  civic 
engagement are almost always aware of  climate change, 
whereas those with lower levels of  civic engagement and 
communication access tend to be unaware (Lee et al., 
2015). Lower-income residents who are poorly educated 
and rural dwellers or on farms are the least aware of  
climate change. In terms of  gender relations, the findings 
established that resources, attitudes and strategies to 

respond to weather-related hazards often differ between 
women and men. For instance, it was established that 
women tend to limited access to critical information 
on weather alerts and cropping patterns, affecting their 
capacity to respond effectively to climate variability and 
education. This view confirmed the observation of  
Lambrous et al. (2016) that gender norms, roles, and 
relations contribute significantly to gender inequalities in 
climate literacy
In terms of  climate change past variations future 
projections and its impact on water and food security in 
the country, our findings established that climate change 
has contributed significantly to the rising of  temperatures 
in South Africa in past century, but a notable increase 
has been recorded in the last two decades. This is 
reinforced in Figure 6 of  our findings and buttressed 
by numerous scholarly works of  literature including 
Engelbrecht et al. (2015); Nyoni et al. (2021); Carcel et 
al. (2015). Consistent with our findings confirmed that 
South Africa’s annual surface mean temperature has 
increased by 02°C to 0.06°C per annum in the past two 
decades. This is buttressed by statistical evidence from 
Centre for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) 2021 
report which disclosed an average increase of  about 10C 
temperature has occurred across the entire country in the 
past five decades. Buttressing our findings and data from 
South Africa’s Second National Climate Change Report 
(NCCRWP, 2020) revealed that the country’s interior 
regions have experienced more intense warming than 
the coastal areas. The Spring seasons have experienced 
the greatest increased and prolonged temperature in the 
past two decades, while the country’s precipitation and 
hydrological zones have decreased significantly in the 
same period. 
In relation to future projections our findings shown in 
Figure 6 supported by pieces of  scientific literature 
including Mbokodo et al. (2020); CSIR (2019) projects 
a rapid increase in the annual average temperature of  
between 1.50C to 2 times the global rate of  temperature 
increases in South Africa in the 21st century. Confirming 
our findings Maure et al. (2018); Mbokodo et al. (2020) 
concludes that for a period 2021-2050 temperature 
increases of  10C to 2.50C will plausibly occur over the 
southern coastal regions, while the interior provinces 
such as Free State and, Northern Cape and Northwest 
are likely to experience temperature increases    exceeding 
30C in the same period. A projected annual rainfall pattern 
is displayed in both Figure 7 and 8. Critical analysis of  
the Figures Project a general reduction in mean annual 
rainfall in the country. Our findings supported by climatic 
studies such as Zengeni et al. (2014); du Plessis et al. (2017) 
modelled declined precipitation to around -5%, -2%, and 
0% by 2035. Augmenting these findings Mackellar et al. 
(2014) project that by 2050 the interior provinces such 
as Free State, Northern Cape, North-West and Limpopo 
will experience an average declined of  up to 30% of  their 
annual rainfall between 2025 to 2050. Consistent with 
these findings Jury (2019) and Archer et al. (2019) further 

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project a declining rainfall trends during the austral 
spring months, implying a delay in the onset of  seasonal 
rains over a large part of  the summer rainfall region in 
the country. Interestling, as Shown in Figure 8 of  our 
findings and supported by some scholarly literature such 
as Mackellar et al. (2014); Chersich et al. (2019) concludes 
that the rainfall patterns are expected to increase in both 
intensity and frequency in certain coastal provinces such 
as Eastern Cape, KwaZulu Natal and Western Cape. 
The extreme and less predictable weather conditions 
in these provinces are projected to affect availability 
and distribution of  rainfall, snowmelt, river flows and 
groundwater, and further deteriorate water quality.
Regarding the impact of  climate change on water and 
food security our findings portrayed in Table 3 concludes 
that climate variations have contributed tremendously 
to water and food insecurity across households in South 
Africa, particularly the vulnerable and poor communities 
who cannot meet their food requirements through 
market access. Numerous pieces of  literature such as 
Masipa (2017); Nhemachena et al. (2020) augmented 
our findings that climate change has contributed to 
livelihoods, economies, and the environmental woes, and 
have exacerbated existing vulnerabilities in the country. 
More worryingly, our study findings supported by many 
climatic studies including Fawzy et al. (2020); Chersich et al. 
(2019) strongly believed that the worst impact of  climate 
change is yet to be felt in the water and food sector in the 
South Africa if  adequate adaptation measures are not put 
in place as soon as possible. 
Based on our findings climate change will alter the 
hydrological cycle, temperature balance, and rainfall 
patterns across South Africa which will impact severely 
on of  water provision, food production and other 
sustainable livelihoods. The breakdown of  Table 3 
supported by numerous scholarly literature including 
Kusangaya et al. (2013); Ngcamu et al. (2020) confirmed 
that climate change will affect food and livestock 
production therefore, food availability through several 
different pathways, will be negatively affected by rising 
temperatures, floods, drought, or other extreme weather 
events; that have potential to reduced crop yields, risk to 
food safety due to aflatoxins, declined nutritional quality 
of  foods due to increased CO2 levels in the atmosphere 
and increased risk of  diseases. A combination of  all the 
above means that climate change will lead to water and 
food insecurity through increased shocks and stressors 
resulting in food and water insecurity, undernourishment, 
increased environmental degradation combined with 
natural resource scarcity. 
 The phenomenon of  climate change will disrupt 
livelihoods, increase poverty, marginalise the poor, and 
escalate inequality (Kusangaya et al., 2013). It was proved 
that water is an essential and central resource in the 
country because most of  the population derives their 
livelihood from cultivation and livestock production, 
dependent on the availability of  rainfall and water. The 
evidence increases the potential risks to water posed by 

climate change. There are multiple risks derived from 
changes in precipitation and increases in temperature, 
which relate to damage to infrastructure leading to the 
loss of  services and environmental contamination and to 
deterioration in water quality, impacts that will increase 
risks to health. These risks are widespread, affecting both 
poor and wealthy households. 
Regarding mitigation strategies, as shown in Table 4, our 
finding established most effective strategies that could 
minimise the risks from extreme weather events on 
water and food production must be promoted. These 
include adapting basic agronomic techniques must be 
implemented to reduce losses from droughts, floods 
and other extreme weather events. Findings pointed out 
that efficient irrigation methods that conserve water 
and mulching and contouring to retain and increase soil 
moisture ought to be promoted. Additionally, it was 
established that planning and implementing adaptation 
strategies must be transparent and well-documented in 
a manner that is open to public scrutiny and discourse. 
Ensure the representation of  key stakeholders, especially 
representatives of  vulnerable communities, marginalised 
groups, women, and indigenous peoples, at every stage of  
the process, including the governance and disbursement 
of  adaptation finance, planning, implementation, 
monitoring, and reporting. These findings confirmed the 
views of  Fawzy et al. (2020) that effective strategies for 
combating climate change must prioritise the adaptation 
needs of  and ensure that resources reach the most 
vulnerable, including marginalised groups, women and 
children, indigenous peoples, local communities and 
those disproportionately impacted, as well as vulnerable 
ecosystems, through enhancing adaptive capacity and 
reducing vulnerability. 
Furthermore, Mfitumukiza et al. (2020) concurred that it 
is appropriate to maximise regional, national, provincial 
and community level ownership over adaptation planning 
and implementation processes and disbursement of  
adaptation finance to enable and encourage participatory 
local level planning and implementation. Furthermore, 
appropriate transboundary cooperation should be 
emphasised in all steps of  the climate change adaptation 
process: from collecting and sharing information (which 
form the basis of  robust decision-support systems), 
developing joint vulnerability assessment, managing 
water with flexible and adaptive institutions, and 
developing basin-wide adaptation strategies, to planning 
and operation of  different adaptation measures such as 
infrastructure on shared waters. Joint data and knowledge-
sharing arrangements and joint monitoring of  basin 
conditions are prerequisites for successful transboundary 
cooperation in an era of  climate change (Schmeier et al., 
2018).

CONCLUSION
This paper established that climate change is irrefutable 
and significantly impacts water and food security 
in South Africa. There is all indication that climate 

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change has altered the hydrological cycle, temperature 
balance and rainfall patterns across South Africa over 
the past fifty years. Higher temperatures, changes in 
precipitation trends and increased variability will be key 
physical challenges to the population’s well-being. The 
amalgamation of  climate change, population growth, and 
consumption vicissitudes are projected to significantly 
impact agriculture production and the hydrological cycle 
in the next fifty years. Consequently, the pressure will 
increase on the water and food security across the country 
if  unrestrained the adverse effect of  climate change on 
water resources across the country is likely to translate 
into food and nutritional deficits, health and economic 
deterioration, and poverty exacerbation. Furthermore, 
climate change is projected to contribute negatively to 
water and food availability, stability, access, utilisation, 
and demand in most provinces. This will lead to immense 
disruption of  livelihoods, increase poverty, marginalise 
the poor and escalate inequality. 
In light of  these foreseeable challenges, this paper 
recommends a multi-disciplinary and comprehensive 
approach that must incorporate policymakers, 
researchers, practitioners and public and private sectors 
to devise realistic and practical adaptation and mitigation 
strategies in South Africa. Such strategies must be 
tailored to each province’s specific biophysical and socio-
economic conditions. Furthermore, South Africa and the 
rest of  the continent should strengthen their leadership 
responsibilities in programmes of  climate-water-food 
agenda, and combat climate change together using global 
mitigation strategies that seek to minimise greenhouse gas 
emissions to prevent long-term negative impact on the 
region the country. As part of  the mitigation strategies, 
this paper recommends an increase in investments in 
access to cleaner energy, water infrastructure and an agro-
friendly environment, especially in rural communities, to 
enable them to build economic and social resilience to 
respond to climate and water disasters and to convert 
climate and water and food-related constraints into an 
opportunity for human development and economic 
growth in the country.

Conflict of  Interest
The authors of  this paper declared that there is no conflict 
of  interest in writing this manuscript.

Acknowledgement
The authors are grateful to the NRF’s Global Change 
Grand Challenges, under the funding instrument, ‘Global 
Change Social Sciences Research Programme, Grant No. 
129481, for providing financial resources which enabled 
us to data on which this paper is based. We also are 
grateful to research participants from the Mpumalanga 
Department of  Water and Sanitation

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