Research Notes Demographic Evolution of Pakistanis in America: Case Study of A Muslim Subgroup A&f Ghayur* According to the last head count in 1981 the total population of Pakistan was 83.782 millions.l In addition, “there are two million overseas Pakistanis, more than one million left behind families and half a million returnee migrants.”Z Let us assume that out of the 1.5 million Pakistanis who are working abroad at agiven time, 33.3 percent have an average of three dependents with them overseas. This brings the total number of persons of Pakistani origin and their offspring abroad to three million. It is estimated that over two-thirds of the working Pakistanis abroad are in the Middle East, especially Saudi Arabia, UAE, Libya, Kuwait and Iraq.3 The rest of the total are working all over the world. After the Middle East, their largest concentration points are England, the U.S.A., Canada and Germany. Among the other countries with relatively smaller-but significant numbers-of persons of Pakistani origin are Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, Denmark, Singapore, Nigeria, Kenya, Hong Kong and Malaysia. Today Pakistan is one of the leading countries in exporting its manpower to the rest of the world. It is not an exaggeration of facts to say that the foreign exchange sent home by the overseas Pakistanis is keeping Pakistan afloat economically in these uncertain times. In 1983, close to three billion dollars were sent by overseas Pakistanis to their country.4 This is, again, one of the largest amounts sent by workers *Arif Ghayur, ,Ph.D., is an Associate Professor in the Department of Sociology at Sweet Briar College, Sweet Briar, VA. Census of Pakistan 1981 (Islamabad: Population Census Organization, Government of Pakistan) Bulletin 1, p. 1 Z I j a z S. Gilani, A Strutesyfor the Overseas Paktktunis (Islamabad: Pakistan Institute of Public Opinion, 1983), p. 4. 3 z w ‘The Pakistan Times, Lahore, Pakistan (February 17, 1984 issue). 113 abroad to a home country. The purpose of this paper is to focus on the Pakistanis who are settled in the U.S.A. How many are there? What is the history of their demographic evolution? And what will be their numbers in 1990? Population projections will also be made for 2000 A.D. In my previous researches I have estimated the population of Muslims in America.6 In this essay I am trying to focus on one of the largest and one of the very active Muslim groups in America. In the population of Pakistan 97 percent persons are Muslims.6 It is realistic to assume that about 95 percent Pakistani immigrants in America are Muslims. The Haruard Encyclopedia of American Ethnic Groups claims it is impossible to count the exact number of any ethnic group in America, especially for first generation immigrant groups.7 Usually a community leader will exaggerate his group’s population because the larger the size of his constituency, the greater the political power and influence of his group in the American society. The Encyclopedia suggests several sources which can be utilized to estimate the population. These sources include Immigration and Naturalization Service Annual Reports, census data (if available), leaders and well-informed persons within the community, embassy personnel, ethnic and the regular American newspapers, religious and ethnic organizational membership records, and previous research, if it exists. Even after all this effort the Encyclopedia emphasizes that one will arrive only at a “guesstimate”. It is, however; better to have a guesstimate based on some investigation than to have simple armchair speculation, which is how most ethnic groups estimate their population size, especially the first generation immigrants.8 I have attempted to compute the population of the Pakistani ethnic group in the United States using the above mentioned sources, whenever available. In other instances, I computed numbers based on these sources (especially immigration data), sometimes employing techniques of demographic estimation and projection. In this fashion I have estimated the people of Pakistani origin to be 96,537 at present. I arrived at these figures in the following manner. W h o is a Pakistani? First I had to specify my criteria; I counted as Pakistanis those who SArif Ghayur, “Muslims in the United States: Settlers and Visitors”, Milton M. Gordon (ed.), TheAnnalsoftheAmericanAcademyofPolitical andSocialScienee(March 1981), pp. 150-163. G w r u s of Pakistan 1972 (Islamabad: Government Press, 1972) vol. 1. ‘Stephan Thernstrom, et. al. (eds.) Harvard Encgcl~pediu of American Ethnic Groups (Cambridge, Massachusetts Harvard University Press, 1980) pp. 1034-35. SIbid 114 either: 1) entered the United States on a Pakistani passport, or 2) are the offspring of these Pakistanis, or 3) are from the subcontinent originally and came here around the creation of Pakistan, if they primarily identify themselves with Pakistan, and not India, or 4) are the offspring or dependents of those people described in the last category. Since no separate figures for Pakistanis are available in the US. Census volumes, the major source of my demographic data are the I m m e a t k and Naturalization Service Annual Reports. Prior to the liberalization of American immigration laws in 1965, the annual quota for most Asian countries was around 100 immigrats. Pakistan was no exception, and, therefore, as late as in 1954 only 48 Pakistanis were admitted as immigrants to this country. Even after the implementation of the new laws, the number of immigrants did not increase drastically. For instance, in 1965 and 1966, only 187 and 347 Pakistanis, respectively, were granted green cards. During the entire 15-year period (1954-1969) only a total of 3,651 Pakistanis migrated to the US . on permanent visa. It is only since the 1970’s that the annual rate of Pakistanis entering the United States as immigrants has been increasing. Table 1 provides the details. It is important that no separate figures are available for immigration from the region now called Pakistan before 1948. The ImmigratiOn & Naturalization Service Annual Report mentions that “Pakistan is included in India prior to 1948.”9 It is even difficult to obtain figures for persons admitted as immigrants from Pakistan for the 1948-53 period. The only available figures for the pre-1954 period are for Pakistanis who were naturalized as American citizens. Obviously, this number is usually much smaller than the immigrants admitted, thus of not much help in computing their real numbers. These data indicate the sharp difference in the number of immigrants admitted from Pakistan in 1954 (only 48 immigrants) compared to 1978 (3,162 immigrants). In other words, during the 24-year period, 25,870 Pakistani immigrants were admitted. Since data were not available for 1979-1983 period, I have estimated the number of immigrants for these five years based on averaging out the increase during the last eight years (1970-1978) which was computed as 13.38% per year. In this manner, my estimate of the total number of immigrants for the 29-year period (1954- 1983) is 49,280 persons. PRE-1954 TOTAL Data is scarce for the period before 1954. However, persons from the subcontinent did immigrate to this country before the turn of the W.S. Government Printing Office, Immigration & Naturalization Service Annual Report. (Washington, D.C.) 1950, p. 19. 115 century. I have personally met scores of families who migrated prior to the partitioning of British India, a percentage of whom prefer to call themselves Pakistanis rather than Indians. As a matter of fact, insome cases I have met persons from the third generation of such Pakistani families. In consultation with well-informed individuals in ’the community (especially the “old timers”) I am estimating the total of the pre-1954 imminants of Pakistani origin and their offspring at 2,000. There is no other way of computing their numbers. Table 1 Persons Admitted from Pakistan as U.S. Immigrants (1954-83)Io Year Immigram Admitted Cumulative Freqzcency 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 48 79 93 74 108 95 89 88 98 87 88 187 347 646 673 851 1,528 2,125 2,299 2,217 2,197 2,620 2,888 3,183 3,162 3,585 (est.) 4,065 (est.) 4,609 (est.) 5,226 (at.) 5.925 (eSt.1 48 127 220 294 402 497 586 647 772 859 947 1,134 1,481 2,127 2,800 3,651 5,179 7,304 9,603 11,820 14,017 16,637 19,525 22,780 25,870 29,455 33,528 38,125 43,355 49,280 Total 49,280 49,280 Wid, This table is based on data from several yearly volumes. 116 * POPULATION INCREASE BY FERTILITY In a demographic survey of the first generation of ”akistanis conducted by me in 1977-1978, the data indicated that on the average about two children per couple were born since they came to the U.S.I1 At the time of the survey most of the immigrants who arrived since 1965 were in their mid 20’s or early 30’s. Marriage and fertility rates are quite high for this age group. If we assume that about 15,000 couples in the total population of Pakistanis produced two children on the average, than 30,000 children were born to them during 1965-1983 period. As a student of demography, I can point out that this is a normally expected fertility sate for a population with the age structure and other socioeconomic characteristics common among Pakistani immigrants. Remember these 30,000 children are not part of the immigrant statistics which we have discussed so far. STUDENTS Campbell indicates that there are “more than 75,000 foreign Muslim students now studying in the United States.”lz The International Institute of Education in Washington shows that Iranians make up the largest single group of foreign students with 26,768 in the 1982-83 academic year.13 As a matter of fact, the number and percentage of Iranian students used to be even greater before 1979. After the Revolution only those Iranian students can come who study subjects other than the humanities or the arts. They are also now required to send their grades ’to Teheran.14 Moreover, the relations between Iran and the United States are not cordial today as during the era of the Shah. Even then about one out of every 3 or 4 Muslim students or non-immigrant visas today is Iranian. The number of students from Pakistan is not as large as Iran. However, there were 4,070 Pakistanis enrolled in American universities on student visas in 1981.’5 About half of the Pakistani students are married, doing graduate work, and are in their late 20’s or early 30’s. It should also be pointed out that in reality there are many times more students of Pakistani origin, but many of them are now either green card holders, naturalized citizens or Americans by birth. Thus in this section we are only concerned with those who are in the United States on student ~ llArif Ghayur,“Pakistani Immigrants in America: A Socio-demographic Study,” Pakistan Studies (London, England Center for Paksitan Studies), Vol. 1, No. 1, Winter 1981. Wolin Campbell, ‘‘Moslem Students in U.S. Rediscovering Islam,” The New Ywk Times (May 13, 1984), p. 1. 1 3 1 ~ 1 4 1 ~ . 15Th Chronicle of H i g h - Education (Washington, D.C.), December 1983. 117 visas. Let us assume about 50 percent of them are married and have brought their spouse as well as one child (on the average) with them. This makes the total of Pakistanis on American campuses 8,140. Suppose further that on the average each married couple produces .5 child during their stay in America. This additional 1,017 persons of Pakistani origin brings the grand total of Pakistanis on American campuses to 9,157. UNDOCUMENTED ALIENS Another large category of Pakistanis is illegal or undocumented aliens. This is especially true in the very large metropolitan areas or in cities where the job turnover is high and unemployment rate is relatively low. I was surprised that a medium-sized city located in the Rocky Mountain States had almost 25 undocumented, illegal aliens, or those who had applied for political asylum among its total of about 250 Paksitani residents. Some have jumped ships; others sneaked in from Mexico and Canada. But the largest source of illegal aliens among Pakistanis seems to be among those who came here as tourists and then got lost in this large country because they decided not to go back. They never renewed their visa. I must point out here that illegal or out-of-status aliens are in America from practically every country of the world. Therefore, Pakistan is not unique in this respect. As a matter of fact, Mexico, Canada and some other Central American countries are notorious for their share of illegals in this country. For example in 1983 alone, 1.25 million illegal aliens were arrested while entering the U.S.A. Immigration agents arrested 14,127 smugglers and prosecuted 7,444 of them. Of them, 6,562 were convicted. Now the Reagan administration is requesting the Congress to add 850 officers to the 1,960 who patrol the 1,952-mile U.S.-Mexico border.16 In other words, about 70 percent of the illegal aliens are from Mexico and Central America but of the total 1.25 million arrested about 30 percent do belong to all other countries, including India, Taiwan, South Korea, Pakistan, to name just a few. I t is my estimate that about 2,000 Pakistanis are residing in this country illegally. It is important to mention them because they are part of the Pakistani-American community. Most of them have a high school or college diplomas from Pakistan. A substantial number of them are graduates of Pakistani universities, and some, in fact, are highly educated professionals with degrees in law, economics, political science, geology, etc. from Pakistan. All of them are quite hardworking and many of them hold two jobs (one fulltime and one part-time) usually a t minimum wage. As a matter lWSA Today (Washington, D.C.), May 1, 1984. 118 of fact, one such person secured three jobs (one 8 to 5 job, another 6 to 10 evening job on weekdays, and a third 9 to 5 on Saturdays and Sundays) within the first month of his arrival here at the peak of the massive double digit unemployment of 1982. Moreover, his wife told me, “I am unhappy to refuse a second job offer because I have to take care of my 10- month old daughter.” The husband very innocently questioned the whole notion of high unemployment in America. In fact, such cases give one faith in the basic strength of the American economic structure. So far I have only mentioned the larger categories of Pakistanis who contribute greatly to the cultural, religious and social life of the community on a continuing basis. For example, it is true that most of the students return to their countries, yet on the other hand, Immigration Office data indicate that during the 1966-76 period, as many as 27 percent of the total Iranians who entered this country on student visas eventually adjusted them to the permanent variety. Either they married US . citizens (native Americans or Americansof Iranian descent) or they become permanent residents and continued to stay here permanently.’’ No parallel statistics for Pakistani students are available. However, my observation is that perhaps the parallel figure for Pakistanis is much lower because they have a much greater tendency than Iranians to return to their country. Thus, in my opinion only about 10 percent of the Pakistani students do acquire permanent residency in such a fashion (marrying native Americans or mostly Pakistani-Americans). Moreover, most of the Pakistanis are above-average students in technical and professional fields such as engineering, computers, business administration, pharmacy, and medical technology which are in great demand. Therefore, a substantial number of them are hired and sponsored for permanent residency after graduation by large American corporations. Even those who eventually go back after graduation (or after receiving practical training) stay for several years in this country, thus remaining very active members of the Pakistani community in every sense of the word. DIPLOMATS There are several other culturally significant but numerically small categories of Pakistanis in America. For instance, there are about 100 Pakistanis employed in their Embassy in Washington, D.C., the Consulate General Offices in New York City and San Francisco, the Pakistan Mission to the UN in New York City, and Pakistan International Airlines offices in America. A few Pakistani journalists are also stationed in America. Including dependents, these Pakistanis total about 600. It is very important to mention these Pakistanis 17Stephan Thernstrom, op cit, pp. 522-23. 119 (especially the embassy personnel and the PIA people) because though their number is not large they are very active in the community. VISITORS In 1961, only 1,730 persons entered America from Pakistan. However, this number is increasing every year. For example, in 1978, as many as 22,318 such persons entered this country.'* Data was not available for 1983 but I am assuming that last year at least 25,000 persons entered America from Pakistan on non-immigrant visas. Table 2 gives data about the number of persons admitted to the U.S. from Pakistan on non- immigrant visas for the period 1949-78. They included tourists, official delegates from the Pakistani government, scientists and scholars coming to present papers in conferences, or to attend seminars or training programs for a couple of months, religious scholars and religious leaders, popular movie stars, singers, musicians, folk dancers, TV artists, writers, journalists, businessmen, renowned Urdu and other regional language poets, and Quawwals (those who recite spiritual as well as romantic poetry). A very large majority of them go back home in Table 2 Non-immigrants Admitted to the US. from Pakistan (1966-78)19 Non-immigrants Admitted Year from Pakistan 1966 2,375 1967 2,221 1968 3,671 1969 4,250 1970 4,952 1971 6,415 1972 6,358 1973 10,037 1974 13,003 1975 13,773 1976 14,980 1977 17,155 1978 22,318 laThese figures were obtained from different Immigration Naturalization Service Annual Reports. T h e s e figures were collected from the Immigration & Naturalization Service Annual Reporb 1966-78 (Washington, D.C.). ,120 a few weeks, but substantial numbers of them stay for six months or longer. A lesser (but quite significant) number marry permanent residents, especially Pakistani-Americans. It would not be unrealistic to estimate that 10 percent of these non-immigrant visa holders either end up i) staying for about a year with relatives here; ii) get married and apply for permanent residency; iii) get admitted to American universities; iv) star t businesses, or buy property; or v) are sponsored by large American corporations for immigration. For all practical purposes, about 2,500 of them should be treated as part of the Pakistani permanent population in America. It is my observation that the majority of these 2,500 do not obtain green cards. But they end up staying in this country for the above mentioned reasons, at least for a year or several years, thus, putting their numerical weight in the community. Now that we have covered all the major categories of Pakistanis (who are either citizens, permanent residents or stay here for at least a significant amount of time), I would like to present Table 3. Table 3 Pakistanis Settled in the U.S.20 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Pakistanis admitted as permanent residents (19541983) . 49,280 Offspring of the above group after arriving in America . . 30,OOO Pakistanis or persons of subcontinent origin who arrived before 1954 and identify with Pakistan (and their dependents ................................. 3,000 Student visa holders and their dependents .............. 9,157 Illegal aliens and their dependents ..................... 2,000 San Francisco, PIA employees and their dependents ...... 600 for a long period or settle down permanently ........... 2,500 Embassy in Washington, D.C., Consulate General Offices, Pakistani Mission to UN in New York City and 10 percent of the estimated 25,000 non-immigrant visa entries in 1983, some of whom end up staying here TOTAL 96,537 20Source of most these data is the Immigration h Naturalization S& Annual Report (1954-78). gp cit. 121 HOW MANY IN FUTURE? I have made these estimates quite conservatively. In other words, it would not be surprising if the real numbers were somewhat larger (maybe about 10 percent more). There is no ultimate method of checking anybody‘s guesstimate except the actual “head count”-which is almost impossible unless the U.S. Census Office requires it as they did for persons from India in the 1980 U.S. census to identify them as East Indians. Now I would like to make population projections for the next 7 years. If the Simpson-Mazzola immigration laws reform bill-with clauses for making it very difficult or nearly impossible to sponsor one’s brothers and sisters-passes, the population growth will be difficult to predict. However, in the projections I am making, I will assume that ru) drastic changes in the immigration laws will take place in the next seven years. If you look at the rate of increase in the number of persons admitted on a yearly basis as immigrants from Pakistan during 1954-1978 period, the percentage rate of change is very high, i.e. from 48 in 1954 to 3,162 in 1978. This is a 6587.50 percent increase in a quarter of a century. Even in the more recent period (1970-1978) there is an average increase of 13.38 percent annually (from 1,528 in 1970 to 3,162 in 1978). But because there is such a great demand for U.S. immigration visas worldwide, I have a feeling that the rate of increase for Pakistanis will drop in the future. I am also assuming this because the base population of Pakistnai- Americans is now v m large compared to 1954 or even 1970. Moreover, throughout my analysis I am making all estimates very conservatively. I would like to be consistent in my conservative assumptions. Therefore, I will project only a 5 percent increase in the number of persons from Pakistan admitted annually during the 1984-1990 period. In this fashion I have arrived at the following figures: Table 4 Population Projections for Pakistanis Admitted as Immigrants to the U.S., 1984-90 Period Year Immigrants Admitted Cumulative Frequency 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 4,827 5,068 5,322 5,588 5,867 6,160 6,468 101,364 106,432 11 1,754 117,342 123,209 129,369 135,837 TOTAL (by 1990) 36,300 135,837 122 a few weeks, but substantial numbers of them stay for six months or longer. A lesser (but quite significant) number marry permanent residents, especially Pakistani-Americans. It would not be unrealistic to estimate that 10 percent of these non-immigrant visa holders either end up i) staying for about a year with relatives here; ii) get married and apply for permanent residency; iii) get admitted to American universities; iv) star t businesses, or buy property; or v) are sponsored by large American corporations for immigration. For all practical purposes, about 2,500 of them should be treated as part of the Pakistani permanent population in America. It is my observation that the majority of these 2,500 do not obtain green cards. But they end up staying in this country for the above mentioned reasons, at least for a year or several years, thus, putting their numerical weight in the community. Now that we have covered all the major categories of Pakistanis (who are either citizens, permanent residents or stay here for at least a significant amount of time), I would like to present Table 3. Table 3 Pakistanis Settled in the U.S.20 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Pakistanis admitted as permanent residents (19541983) . 49,280 Offspring of the above group after arriving in America . . 30,OOO Pakistanis or persons of subcontinent origin who arrived before 1954 and identify with Pakistan (and their dependents ................................. 3,000 Student visa holders and their dependents .............. 9,157 Illegal aliens and their dependents ..................... 2,OOO Embassy in Washington, D.C., Consulate General Offices, Pakistani Mission to UN in New York City and 10 percent of the estimated 25,000 non-immigrant visa entries in 1983, some of whom end up staying here for a long period or settle down permanently ........... 2,500 San Francisco, PIA employees and their dependents ...... 600 TOTAL 96,537 mSource of most these data is the Immigration & Naturalization ServiOe Annual Report (1954-78), op cit. 121 HOW MANY IN FUTURE? I have made these estimates quite conservatively. In other words, it would not be surprising if the real numbers were somewhat larger (maybe about 10 percent more). There is no ultimate method of checking anybody’s guesstimate except the actual “head count”-which is almost impossible unless the US. Census Office requires it as they did for persons from India in the 1980 US. census to identify them as East Indians. Now I would like to make population projections for the next 7 years. If the Simpson-Mazzola immigration laws reform bill-with clauses for making it very difficult or nearly impossible to sponsor one’s brothers and sisters-passes, the population growth will be difficult to predict. However, in the projections I am making, I will assume that m drastic changes in the immigration laws will take place in the next seven years. If you look at the rate of increase in the number of persons admitted on a yearly basis as immigrants from Pakistan during 1954-1978 period, the percentage rate of change is very high, i.e. from 48 in 1954 to3,162 in 1978. This is a 6587.50 percent increase in a quarter of a century. Even in the more recent period (1970-1978) there is an average increase of 13.38 percent annually (from 1,528 in 1970 to 3,162 in 1978). But because there is such a great demand for US. immigration visas worldwide, I have a feeling that the rate of increase for Pakistanis will drop in the future. I am also assuming this because the base population of Pakistnai- Americans is now verg large compared to 1954 or even 1970. Moreover, throughout my analysis I am making all estimates very conservatively. I would like to be consistent in my conservative assumptions. Therefore, I will project only a 5 percent increase in the number of persons from Pakistan admitted annually during the 1984-1990 period. In this fashion I have arrived at the following figures: Table 4 Population Projections for Pakistanis Admitted as Immigrants to the U.S., 1984-90 Period Year Immigrants Admitted Cumulative Frecruencu 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 4,827 5,068 5,322 5,588 5,867 6,160 6,468 TOTAL (by 1990) 36,300 101,364 106,432 111,754 117,342 123,209 129,369 135,837 135,837 122 Thus, I am projecting that 36,300 Pakistanis will be admitted as immigrants during 1984-1990 period. This brings the total to 135,837 (96,537 + 36,300) by 1990. To account for the birth rate, I have added 20,000 children expected to be born in the Pakistani ethnic group during the 1984-1990 period. Again, computing 2,857 births per year for a population of the size of the Pakistani population which is dominated by many young couples is not an overestimation, demographically speaking. Moreover, Pakistani-Americans come from a society where having only one or two children is frowned upon. Thus, the total becomes 155,837. Although I will not make any additions which may occur because of illegal aliens, tourists, etc., I do wish to bring up another issue, i.e. death rate. MORTALITY RATE So far I have not talked about deaths among Pakistanis not because they did not occur at all but rather because they hardly occurred in proportion to their numbers in America. The majority of the Pakistani- Americans were healthy, in the prime of their lives, and come from the upper-middle and upper socioeconomic status group of Pakistan. These group characteristics usually translate into a very low mortality rate. Very few deaths occurred due to infectious diseases or heart attacks in this young population during the 1970’s. The only major cause of death which I occasionally heard of was highway accidents. This was also not very frequent in occurrance. Accordingly, I did not bother to subtract any numbers from the total of 96,537 on account of any deaths. However, many of us will be entering our late 30’s and early ~ O ’ S , and some will also be on the “wrong side” of 40’s and 50’s during my projection period (1984-1990). Therefore, future deaths have to be calculated from now onward.21 At present, for every 1,000 population, 8.7 persons die in the United States annually.= Of course, the American population consistsof all age groups including elderly persons among whom death rate is very high. Thus, for the Pakistani ethnic group, I will average it out to be 3.0 deaths per 1,000 population per year for 155,837 throughout the 7-year projected period. This means 4,675 deaths will occur during the 1984- 1990 period among Pakistanis, leaving a net population of 151,162. The major cause of death during the projected period will be heart attack, and the second cause of death will be highway accidents. Lack of physical “It is very interesting that during the late 1960’s and the early 1970’s I never heard of establishing separate cemeteries for Muslims in different communities of Americaas a big issue. But as the ethnic group started “aging” I am hearing a lot about buying lands for cemetaries for Muslims. After the stages of building Islamic schools for children and then constructing mosques, we are entering the stage of having our own cemeteries. For non- Muslim readers it is important to know that Islam requires that Muslims should be buried with Muslims. W . S . Census, 1980, Mortality Bulletin (Washington, D.C.: Department of Commerce). 123 exercise, carelessness in large cholesterol and caloric intake (delicious and rich Pakistani food!) and stressful life in America will also start taking its toll on Pakistanis. Finally, they will be fully Americanized! If the present trends continue in the rates of immigrations, fertility and mortality more or less in the same manner as present, it will’not be unrealistic to assume that the population of persons of Pakistani origins will be about 250,000 by the year 2000 A.D. in America. PAKISTANIS IN CANADA Most of the total 25 million population of Canada lives in cities very close to their southern border, contiguous to the US . The two countries are very similar cultrrally. Moreover, the means of transportation and communications between them are highly developed. Hence, not to say a few words about Pakistanis in Canada is like tellingonly half the story. Again, it is impossible to estimate the exact number of persons of Pakistani origin in Canada, but it will be realistic to say that it is close to their number in this country. Ontario Ethnocultural Profiles says: Pakistani immigration to Canada reportedly began in the 18th Century with the arrival of a few people. Until 1956, statistics concerning Pakistani immigration were included with those of India. This causes some difficulty in ascertaining how many people of Pakistani origin immigrated to Canada before this time; however it is reported that 5,266 Pakistanis came to Canada in the period between 1946 and 1970.= The Canadian Census reports that of the 4,705 persons who claimed Pakistani origin, 2,800 resided in Ontario. Immigration statistics for 1978 also indicate that 18,979 migrated from Pakistan. Naturally this figure does not include children born to these immigrant Pakistanis. Further, the number of Pakistanis increased much more in the late 1970’s than in the 1960’s or earlier, About 50 percent of Pakistani-Canadians reside in Ontario (mainly Toronto), with Quebec (mainly Montreal) being the second most popular choice of residence (approximately 30 percent).24 Alberta (mainly Edmonton and Calgary), and British Columbia rank third and fourth, respectively.25 The Federal Capital of Ottawa-Hull area also has a substantial number of Pakistanis. Pakistani families and friends are divided between the USA and Canada. However, the convenience of transportation and the telephone ~~~ ~ 230ntario Ministry of Culture and Recreation, Toronto, Ontario, Pakistanis (1979), p. 1. 24Ibid. 25For more detailed study about Pakistanis, please refer to Sadiq N. Awan, The People of Pakistan O r i g i n in Canada (Ottawa, Secretary of State, 1976) and the writings of D.H. 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