30 AMERICAN Journal of Public Diplomacy and International Studies www. grnjournal.us AMERICAN Journal of Public Diplomacy and International Studies Volume 02, Issue 05, 2024 ISSN (E): 2993-2157 Methods used in forecasting the development of the tourism services market Rakhimov Zafar Odilovich Associate professor of Samarkand institute of economics and service. e-mail: zafar_r80@mail.ru. Abdurasulov Shovqiddin Erkin o‘g‘li Teacher of the Samarkand institute of economics and service. Abstract: the article examines the methods used in forecasting the development of the tourism services market. A system of methods is used as an instrument in forecasting, with the help of which past trends of the enterprise are analyzed with the help of cause-and-effect parameters for the analysis of changes formed in the economic and social development potential of the firm. Keywords: marketing research, sample size, analysis of collected information, conjuncture of the tourist market, delhiographic method, heuristic method, brainstorming method, Delphi method. forecasts of conjuncture, competitiveness of suppliers, competitiveness of consumers, competition by substitute goods Introduction In the forecast scenario for the development of domestic tourism in Uzbekistan, it is necessary to direct the organizational and financial capabilities of all tourism industry officials and representatives of local authorities to a number of issues facing the domestic tourism infrastructure. In particular, it is recommended to develop republic-level and regional targeted programs that provide the domestic tourism business segment. Among the most important regions in this regard are the Surkhandarya and Kashkadarya regions in the south, and the Fergana Valley and Tashkent regions with their beautiful nature and opportunities for recreation, wellness and recreational tourism. According to the scenario, there are no prospects of attracting significant financial resources to the field of domestic tourism in the near future. In such circumstances, it is appropriate to conduct a preliminary revision of the tourist infrastructure complex of the region based on a marketing audit. The purpose of the audit is to assess geographic, social factors, trends of potential tourist flows, their potential and financial ability, as well as the amount of necessary investments to bring it to a guaranteed sales level. Such a revision will increase investment in domestic tourism by nearly 30 http://www/ 31 AMERICAN Journal of Public Diplomacy and International Studies www. grnjournal.us percent. The achievements in this direction will attract the capital of Uzbek banks, and with their active participation, we can hope to attract important foreign investments. In order to improve this situation, the decision PQ-3514 dated February 7, 2018 of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan "On measures to ensure rapid development of domestic tourism" was adopted. According to him, "Travel around Uzbekistan!" the plan of practical measures for the implementation of the domestic tourism development program was approved and is being implemented today. Methodology. The methodological basis of the research was based on information on the methods used in forecasting the development of the tourism services market, presidential decrees and decisions. Also, the methods of induction and deduction were widely used in the analysis of views and opinions related to the research work. Statistical data grouping, comparative analysis, sample observation methods were used in the analysis of the data of the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan. Scientific abstraction and other methods were used to enrich the content of the work and give it concluding thoughts. Results. Marketing planning is the approach adopted by many leading market-oriented firms. This is not a new method, but its application in practice is determined by different degrees of objectivity and validity. Lack of marketing planning makes many processes difficult: • management and development of research; • managing the development of new products; • establishing necessary standards for suppliers; • management of sales personnel actions; • setting realistic goals in sales; • reducing the influence of competitors on the market; Forecasting serves rational marketing research to determine the trends of the company's development and support its economic activity in the conditions of constant changes in external and internal environmental factors. The field of application of forecasting methods in marketing systems is very widespread. A system of methods is used as an instrument in forecasting, with the help of which past trends of the enterprise are analyzed with the help of cause-and-effect parameters for the analysis of changes formed in the economic and social development potential of the firm. http://www/ 32 AMERICAN Journal of Public Diplomacy and International Studies www. grnjournal.us Table 1 shows the classification of methods used in marketing system forecasting and their effectiveness. Table 1. Effectiveness of different forecasting methods Forecasting methods Usage, % in relation to the number of enterprises Reliability Assessment* Frequency of use ** Quantitative methods: 1. Trends are political extrapolation 73,7 a often 2. Variable method average 67,7 a often 3. Regression analysis 35,9 h sometimes 4. Exponential smoothing 32,9 a sometimes 5. Modeling 15,9 l rarely 6. "Cost-output" model 14,4 a rarely 7. Markov chain 4,2 l rarely Methods of determining quality: 1. Evaluation of employees of international departments 87,7 a often 2. Evaluation of traders and technical leaders 85,9 h often 3. Consumer survey 81,8 a often 4. Product testing 50,0 a sometimes 5. Analogy method 46,7 h often 6. Market testing method 37,7 a sometimes 7. Expert assessment using the “Delphi” method 15,9 a rarely *) h - high, a - average, l - low. **) o – often, s – sometimes, r – rarely. At the modern stage, tourism has managed to become a large component of the national income of many countries. In some cases, it has become a leading indicator of the lifestyle of the population. The highly competitive environment in the industry determines the high level of errors in the formation of marketing strategies in the planning of tourist flows, and ensures the reasonable forecasting of market scenarios in the development of the analyzed business sector. Discussion. It was necessary to develop forecast scenarios of several alternative options describing the elements of the future development of the tourism sector. We determined the most feasible of these options as a basis, with the help of which the planning strategy of the tourism sector is selected. The development of the tourism industry in Uzbekistan was reviewed taking into account scenario forecasts and modern trends in world tourism. http://www/ 33 AMERICAN Journal of Public Diplomacy and International Studies www. grnjournal.us Table 2 The main indicators of the development of the tourism sector of the Republic of Uzbekistan in 2014-2022 Indicator names Years 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total number of people served (million people) 13,3 17,8 21,4 5,1 7,7 16,6 Including: number of foreign tourists (million people) 2,7 5,3 6,7 1,5 1,9 5,2 Number of domestic tourists (million people) 10,5 12,5 14,7 3,5 5,8 11,4 Number of tourist companies and organizations (units) 449 502 517 337 288 348 Hotel and Alternative Accommodation (Unit) 816 916 1051 1156 1085 1167 Source: Prepared based on the information of the State Statistics Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan. We analyzed forecast scenarios of several alternative options describing the elements of the future development of the tourism sector of Uzbekistan, dividing tourism into incoming, internal and outgoing tourism types based on the standard proportion method of WTO (UNWTO). In Uzbekistan, the government and management structures are currently focusing on the rapid development of inbound and domestic tourism, and in the context of growing world tourism, a number of government decisions and programs have been adopted for the rapid growth of inbound and domestic tourism. The measures taken by this government are determined by the fact that the role of inbound and domestic tourism is a source of free currency conversion and an important reserve for filling the GDP. Table 2 shows the positive results of government decisions and programs aimed at the rapid development of tourism in Uzbekistan According to Table 2, it should be noted that the number of foreign tourists who came to Uzbekistan in 2017 was 2.7 million, in 2022 it was 5.2 million, and in the last 9 months of 2023 It is 4.3 million. The average length of stay of tourists in our country is 4-5 days, which has increased by 1.5 times compared to the same period last year. In 2017, the average amount of money spent by each foreign tourist in the territory of the republic was 197 US dollars, this indicator reached 400 US dollars in 2023, and the volume of tourism exports was 1.72 billion in 9 months of 2023. reached the dollar. The number of domestic (domestic) tourists also increased by 107% compared to 2017 and reached 14.9 million people. Among the important factors that influenced this growth are the liberalization of http://www/ 34 AMERICAN Journal of Public Diplomacy and International Studies www. grnjournal.us the visa regime, the simplification of the procedure for traveling and business activities in Uzbekistan, and the simplification of the following tourism formalities: • In 2018, the visa regime was additionally abolished for 9 countries (18 in total), and the number of countries with simplified entry visas for 12 was increased to 50; • the procedure for providing electronic entry visas and visa-free entry and the operation of the system for their formalization began on June 15, 2018, now the process of temporary stay and exit of citizens of 101 countries in transit through Uzbekistan has been simplified; • the process of temporary registration of foreign citizens was simplified and transferred to a fully electronic system by means of the electronic program "E-GUEST", according to which the right to register foreign citizens, treatment facilities, tourist companies, by placing them in the electronic system, owners of private apartments, guest houses, and foreign tourists traveling independently around the country. Conclusion. The scenario of the optimistic forecast is that the outbound tourism segment in Uzbekistan will be increased without going abroad due to the effective launch of our own national parks, recreation and sanatoriums and attracting new tourist and recreational zones at the expense of the "Travel around Uzbekistan" program. it is possible to pick up some of the outgoing tourists. For this purpose, it is necessary to develop the transport system for bringing customers to places, their efficiency, and create convenient tourist infrastructures for customers. The solution of transport problems is of particular importance in the structure of these changes. Therefore, it is necessary to pay special attention to certain organizational changes and financing to solve the issue of domestic tourism transport. Optimistic and pessimistic options are the most feasible intermediate forecast among forecast scenarios. In this case, certain organizational actions are implemented and financing of tourist infrastructure is implemented, but it will not be sufficient. The tourism industry as a strategic sector of the national economy has its own regular development trend. This can be seen in the forecast indicators presented in the Concept of the development of the tourism industry in the Republic of Uzbekistan for 2019-2025. Forecasting in the scenario method of tourism development in the Republic of Uzbekistan gave the following results (Table 3). According to the table, the number of foreign tourists visiting our country will increase by 183.0% in 2025 compared to 2018. This, in turn, causes the export of tourism services to increase by 214.5% over the same period. It can be concluded that the main part of the export of services in tourism is http://www/ 35 AMERICAN Journal of Public Diplomacy and International Studies www. grnjournal.us planned to be increased based on the diversification and improvement of the quality of the services provided to tourists, based on the increase of income from them. Table 3 Forecast indicators of the development of the tourism sector in the Republic of Uzbekistan in the scenario method T/r Indicator name 2018 year 2020 year 2025 year Amount Growth rate, % Amount Growth rate, % Amount Growth rate, % 1. The number of foreign tourists visiting Uzbekistan, a thousand people 5 347 100,0 6 302 118,0 9 780 183,0 2. Domestic tourists there are a thousand people 15400 100,0 18400 119,0 25900 168,0 3. Hotel and alternative accommodation facilities, unity 850 100,0 1201 141,0 1607 189,0 4 Tour operators the number is one. 860 100,0 1041 121,0 1676 195,0 5. Export of tourism services, million US $ 950 100,0 1 272 122,7 2 233 214,5 Source: Prepared based on the information of the Tourism Development Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan During this period, the number of hotels and alternative accommodation facilities, which are the mainstay of tourism in Uzbekistan, is expected to increase by 189.0%. Taking into account the increase of the number of domestic tourists to 25,900 thousand and the number of foreign tourists visiting Uzbekistan to 9,780 thousand in 2025, according to the recommendation of the standard proportion method in the development of the World Tourism Organization (WTO), 1,607 hotels and 84,400 places in alternative accommodation facilities the number of prognostic indicators was found to be low during the season. Therefore, the result of this analysis requires the creation of additional number of hotels and alternative accommodation facilities and other infrastructure facilities in order to fully fulfill the tasks defined in the 2019-2025 Concept of Tourism Development in the Republic of Uzbekistan. The recommended scenario forecast for the development of the tourism industry in Uzbekistan, considered in terms of global trends in the field of tourism, will help to economically reorganize this industry and increase its investment attractiveness based on the planning of relevant marketing activities. REFERENCES 1. Raximov, Z. O. (2019). Entrepreneurship in tourism. Study guide. Samarkand: SamISI. 2. Raximov, Z. O. (2021). Socio-economic problems of hotel industry development in the field of tourism. Monograph.-Samarkand: SamISI.-2021. http://www/ 36 AMERICAN Journal of Public Diplomacy and International Studies www. grnjournal.us 3. Rakhimov, Z. O. (2020). 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