1. 1 American Scientific Research Journal for Engineering, Technology, and Sciences (ASRJETS) ISSN (Print) 2313-4410, ISSN (Online) 2313-4402 © Global Society of Scientific Research and Researchers http://asrjetsjournal.org/ Determine the Electrical Energy Saving in Residential Sector of Iraq Farook A. Sultan* Lecturer at Al-Hikma college University, Baghdad – Iraq Email: farookalshadood@yahoo.com Abstract The electricity consumption in residential complexes has severe impact on electricity production in Iraq because it currently constitutes more than 47% of the national energy consumption. Calculations have been made on the basis of predicted growth of residential energy consumption for the next 10 years which shows an increase from 64783 GWh in 2013 to 121606 GWh in 2023. This study analysis the data with a view to exploring the most suitable management systems for the residential electricity consumption in order to reduce the impact on the national energy production and promote the other sectors by saving energy consumption. It is worth mentioning that the household appliances and lighting devices which consume 34.95%, 13.55% and 13.20% of the total electrical energy consumptions in the residential sector respectively. Five scenarios have been adopted for maximizing the energy saving. It has been found that the fifth scenario is the best one. Keywords: Electrical energy saving (ES); minimum energy efficiency standard (MEES); energy efficiency class (EEC). 1. Introduction Energy management is the discipline that measures and executed to achieve the minimum possible energy consumption and production cost while meeting the actual needs of the activities of a facility. Actions intended to achieve this energy efficiency focus on reducing necessary end-usage, efficiency increasing, reducing wasted energy and finding superior energy alternatives. The main goal of energy management is to produce goods and provide services with the least environmental pollution effects. Electrical energy consumption in residential sector increases due to the increase in the use of electrical appliances and population growth. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ * Corresponding author. http://asrjetsjournal.org/ American Scientific Research Journal for Engineering, Technology, and Sciences (ASRJETS) (2019) Volume 58, No 1, pp 1-11 2 The extensive use of electrical appliances, including air-conditioners, lightings and heaters consumed large proportion of electricity production in Iraq during the last ten years. During the past years, the order for electrical energy has dramatically increased due to family income increase after 2003, the opening of Iraq's doors for importation and the relatively cheap prices of electricity (KW/h). Thus, the Iraqis have rushed to buy and use more and more electrical appliances with no due consideration for rationalization, especially that the electricity governmental authority does not force the consumers to pay the electricity consumption bills. The residential sector has consumed 47% of Iraq's production of electrical energy, including both the production of the national grid and commercial sources[1]. However, the data published by the International Energy Agency indicates that the residential sector will consume 45% of Iraq's production of electrical energy after 2015.[2] This sector consumes more and more electrical energy. This makes it imperative to explore the proper ways and methods to rationalize electrical energy consumption by this sector. According to the estimates published by the Iraqi Ministry of Electricity, electrical energy production was 15576 MW in 2013 of which the residential sector consumed 47% as shown in Figure 1. Figure 1: Sectorial percentage of electrical consumption in Iraq during 1990-2018 2. Electrical energy saving (ES) To evaluate energy saving and the environmental impact resulting from implementing MEES, five scenarios were adopted and analyzed. Scenario 1: The market share of the efficient models of class A, B and C will take a year constant of 20% and 80% of ordinary models. Scenario 2: The market share of the efficient models of class A, B and C will take a year constant of 40% and 60% of ordinary models. Scenario 3: The market share of the efficient models of class A, B and C will take a year constant of 60% and 40% of ordinary models. Scenario 4: The market share of the efficient models of class A, B and C will take a year constant of 80% and 47% Residential 21.5% Industrial 18.5% Govermential 8% Agricultural 5% Commercial American Scientific Research Journal for Engineering, Technology, and Sciences (ASRJETS) (2019) Volume 58, No 1, pp 1-11 3 20% of ordinary models. Scenario 5: The market share of the efficient models of class A, B and C will take full share. The market share of the efficient models for class A, B and C is divided as 40%, 30% and 30% respectively according to prices of appliances classes . Table 1 represents the considered market share percentage for all classes for each scenario. Each scenario will be applied for the most electricity appliances in Iraq. Table 1: Market share percentage for all classes for each scenario Ordinary Model Efficient Model Scenario Class C Class B Class A 80% 6% 6% 8% Scenario 1 60% 12% 12% 16% Scenario 2 40% 18% 18% 24% Scenario 3 20% 24% 24% 32% Scenario 4 0% 30% 30% 40% Scenario 5 To determine which household appliances consume the highest rates of electrical energy, Pareto Chart has been outlined as shown in Figure 2 . It has been found that the following five electrical appliances consume about 80% of total electrical energy consumption at the level of households: air-conditioners (room air conditioner), cooling appliances (refrigerator, freezer & water cooler), lighting (all lighting devices), water heating (electrical water heater) and space heating (electrical heater) as shown in Table 2 The minimum energy efficiency standard (MEES) has been applied in this study to the following three appliances: air conditioning, cooling appliances and lighting devices. Figure 2: Pareto chart of electricity consumption (MWh) of appliances Appliance O th er s Vacu um sw eeper Ove n Air co ole r Televis io n Ceilin g fa n heat er W ate r h eat er Lig ht in g Cool a pplia nce Air co nditio ner 70000000 60000000 50000000 40000000 30000000 20000000 10000000 0 100 80 60 40 20 0 M W h P ar ti al & a d d it iv e P er ce n t Pareto Chart of Appliance American Scientific Research Journal for Engineering, Technology, and Sciences (ASRJETS) (2019) Volume 58, No 1, pp 1-11 4 Table 2: The highest electrical energy consuming household appliances CP% MWh/year Appliance No 34.95 22653742 Air conditioner 1 13.55 8792624 Cooling appliance 2 13.20 8593530 Lighting 3 9.05 5857389 Water heater 4 7.35 4763098 Fireplace 5 6.65 4286574 Ceiling fan 6 3.95 2551048 Television 7 3.20 2047780 Air cooler 8 1.80 1139848 Oven 9 1.70 1096880 Vacuum sweeper 10 4.6 2909594 other 11 The energy efficiency class (EEC) reflects the minimum energy efficiency standard concept. The energy efficiency class on the energy label makes it possible to compare the annual energy consumption of the given model with other appliances in the market. The energy efficiency is divided into five or more classes depending on the appliances type. Each energy efficiency class is offset by energy efficiency index or ratio range varying as per the appliance type. The class has indicated that individual model falls, so the average annual energy consumption will be clear, as shown in Table 3. Table 3: Proposed EEC & energy efficiency (index/ ratio) of selected appliances Appliance class Energy Efficiency Rate (EER) for Air conditioner Energy Efficiency Index% (EEI) for cooling appliances Energy Efficiency Rate %(EER) for Lighting A 3.2 < EER EEI < 55 20 < EER < 60 B 3.2 > EER > 3.0 55 EER > 2.8 75 < EEI < 95 80< EER <95 D 2.8> EER >2.6 95< EEI < 110 95< EER <110 E 2.6 > EER > 2.4 110 < EEI < 125 110< EER <130 For energy saving, the different appliances can be calculated using appliances the following equation [3]. ES = {(Et – E0 ) + (E0 * R)} CP * MS *S (1) American Scientific Research Journal for Engineering, Technology, and Sciences (ASRJETS) (2019) Volume 58, No 1, pp 1-11 5 Where: ES, Energy Saving Et, Predicted Energy Consumption at (t) year E0, Energy Consumption at base year (2018) R, Replacement Factor CP, Contribution Percentage MS, Market Share SF, Saving Factor The first part of equation (Et – E0) represents the increase in the electricity consumption from base year (2013) due to the increase in electrical appliances numbers. The second part (E0 * R) represents the consumed energy by the replaced appliances due to damaging, depreciation and increasing MEES effect on electrical utility bill. The replacement factor is assumed to be increased by 10% every year to reach 100% at the end of 2023. This means that all old appliances will be replaced by new ones of the three selected energy efficiency class A, B, or C. 3. Saving Factor (SF) The probable saving amount is indicated by using saving factor. The saving factor value changes according to appliance efficiency class and appliance type, and can be calculated by the following equation formula [4]. SF = (AECc - AECa) / AECa (2) where: AECc is the annual energy consumption for specific energy class AECa is the annual energy consumption average in Iraq 3.1 Air-conditioner For room conditioners, the used energy ratio is the Energy Efficiency Ratio (EER). This rating is posted on the energy guide label attached to all new air-conditioner. [Europe Commission, Directive 2003/31/EC] Some air- conditioner manufactures participate in the voluntary energy labeling program where the Energy Label indicates higher EER. The energy rating has been used from the energy efficiency label of appliances on Iraqi market. To calculate Energy saving (ES), it is necessary to find the saving factor (SF) as per equation (4). Thus, AECc & American Scientific Research Journal for Engineering, Technology, and Sciences (ASRJETS) (2019) Volume 58, No 1, pp 1-11 6 AECa can be expressed as follows [5]. AECc = TCC / EER (3) AECa = PR*OP (4) where: TCC, is the Total Cooling Capacity PR, is Energy Rating OP, is Operating Hours The average cooling capacity for air-conditioners has been taken from market in Iraq, which is equal to 2500 watts and annual operating hours 1200h. 3. 2 Cooling Appliances (Refrigerator, Freezer & Water cooler) For Refrigerator, Freezer & Water cooler, Energy Efficiency Index (EEI) has been used. This rating was posted on the energy guide label attached to all new cooling appliances. [Europe Commission, Directive 2003/66/EC] To calculate Energy Saving (ES), it is necessary to find the Saving Factor (SF) as per equations (5) and (6) , where AECc & AECa can be expressed as follows [6]. AECa= (∑1 n AEC) /n (5) AECc =( REE) * (V) (6) Where: n, is the number of appliances AECS, is the standard annual energy consumption V is the average volume for cooling appliance which is about 640 L, according the survey. 3.3 Lighting devices For Lighting devices, the used efficiency ratio is the Energy Efficiency Index (EER). This rating is posted on the energy guide Label attached to lamps. [Europe commission, Directive 98/11/EC] The energy efficiency class of (A) lamp is determined as shown in Table (4). American Scientific Research Journal for Engineering, Technology, and Sciences (ASRJETS) (2019) Volume 58, No 1, pp 1-11 7 Table 4: Input energy into Lamps class A Lighting device Power (W) Fluorescent W < 0.15√∅ + 0.0097∅ Other lamps W < 0.24√∅ + 0.0103∅ Where ∅ is the lumen output of the lamp. If the lamp is not classified in class A, reference wattage WR is determined as shown in Table 5. Table 5: Reference Wattage for other lamp classes ∅ value (lmens) Reference Wattage WR ∅ > 34 𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑠 o.88 √∅ +0.049∅ ∅ ≤ 34 lumens 0.2 ∅ Where Energy Efficiency can be expressed as follows [7] EEI = W / WR (7) The lamp energy reference value depends on the lamp category. The energy reference value was taken from the National Electrical Communication Association [7] for the four lighting devices categories (Fluorescent, CFL, Tungsten lamp) and Spot light). The Saving Factor for the energy efficiency class for each lighting category is calculated on the basis of the following equation (8) below. SF = (Wa– WC) / Wa (8) where: Wa is average energy input for specific light type in Iraq, WC is the energy input of specific light type and energy efficiency class. 4. Simulation Analysis and Results 4.1 Electrical Energy Saving American Scientific Research Journal for Engineering, Technology, and Sciences (ASRJETS) (2019) Volume 58, No 1, pp 1-11 8 These appliances consume about 61.7% of the total household electrical energy consumption In Iraq. It has been found that implementing MEES according to scenario 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 at the year 2023 will save about 9340462, 18680924, 28021386, 37361848 and 46702310 MWh, respectively. Table 5 and Figure 3 shows the Annual energy consumption with and without implementing MEES for each scenario. Table 5: Annual Energy saving in residential sector with and without implementing MEES in (GWh) Energy Saving With Scenario Without Energy Saving Year 5 4 3 2 1 4105 3284 2463 1642 821 42569 2014 8315 6652 4989 3326 1663 45336 2015 12637 10110 7852 5055 2527 48282 2016 17078 13663 10247 6831 3415 51421 2017 21647 17317 12988 8658 4329 54763 2018 26350 21080 15810 10540 5270 58323 2019 31198 24958 18719 12479 6239 62114 2020 36199 28959 21719 14479 7239 66151 2021 41363 33091 24818 16545 8272 70451 2022 46702 37361 28021 18680 9340 75030 2023 Figure 3: The cumulative energy consumption (MWh) with and without implementing MEES for scenario (1, 2, 3, 4 and 5) 2023202220212020201920182017201620152014 50000000 40000000 30000000 20000000 10000000 0 Year En e rg y S a v in g ( M W h ) Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Variable Energy Saving of Scenario (1, 2, 3, 4 and 5) American Scientific Research Journal for Engineering, Technology, and Sciences (ASRJETS) (2019) Volume 58, No 1, pp 1-11 9 Table 6 and Figure 4 shows with and without accumulative energy saving for each scenario by implementing MEES. Table 6: Accumulative Energy saving in residential sector with and without implementing MEES in (GWh) Year Without Energy Saving Energy Saving with scenario 1 2 2 3 5 2014 42569 41748 40927 40106 39285 38464 2015 87905 85421 82937 80453 79632 75848 2016 136187 133660 126164 120883 117804 111130 2017 187608 179182 170754 162057 155562 145473 2018 242371 229616 216859 203832 193008 178589 2019 300694 282669 264154 246345 230251 210562 2020 362808 338544 314277 289740 267407 241478 2021 428959 397456 365949 334172 304599 271430 2022 499410 459635 419855 379805 341959 300518 2023 574440 525325 476205 426814 380079 328846 Figure 4: The cumulative energy consumption (MWh) with and without implementing MEES for scenario (1, 2, 3, 4 and 5) The saved energy is the minimum amount that can be saved by implementing MEES for household appliances. This represents only MEES application to the appliances which consume the highest rate of energy without considering other appliances which are accounted for about 38.3% of residential electrically consumption. 2023202220212020201920182017201620152014 600000000 500000000 400000000 300000000 200000000 100000000 0 Year A cc u m u la ti v e C o n su m p ti o n ( M W h ) Without ES SCENARIO 1 SCENARIO 2 SCENARIO 3 SCENARIO 4 SCENARIO 5 Variable Without and with saving energy by senario(1,2,3,4,5) American Scientific Research Journal for Engineering, Technology, and Sciences (ASRJETS) (2019) Volume 58, No 1, pp 1-11 10 Figure 4 shows the saved energy in the next ten years (2014-2023) through the implementation of the five scenarios. Through the years, the amount of saved energy will increase due to the increase in the houses which use efficient appliances, and the increase of old appliances which will be replaced by efficient models. This calculation will be valid for the next 10 years. Then, new calculation will be applied according to the public awareness of efficient models, its effect on energy production and the economy in general in view of the appliances prices. As shown in figure 5, the percentages of electrical appliances contribution to the total energy saving are 57%, 22% &21% for air conditioning, Cooling appliances and lighting devices respectively. Figure 5: The percentage of electrical appliances contribution to energy saving Table 7: Energy consumption potential of energy efficiency classes for each scenario/year Energy Saving( GWh) Scenario / Class Total 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 21794 4144 3671 3212 2769 2338 1921 1516 1121 739 364 A 1 14083 2740 2101 2124 1830 1546 1270 1002 741 487 241 B 12917 2456 2175 1904 1641 1386 1139 898 665 437 215 C 43588 8286 7341 6425 5537 4677 3842 3031 2243 1476 729 A 2 28808 5480 4854 4248 3661 3092 2540 2004 1483 976 481 B 25834 4912 4351 3808 3282 2772 2277 1796 1330 875 432 C 65382 12429 11017 9637 8355 7015 5763 4547 3364 2214 1092 A 3 43227 8220 7280 6371 5491 4638 3810 3006 2224 1464 723 B 38751 7369 6526 5712 4922 4177 3416 2695 1994 1312 648 C 87176 16577 14682 12849 11074 9353 7684 6062 4486 2952 1457 A 4 57636 10960 9707 8495 7322 6184 5080 4008 2996 1951 963 B 50624 8782 8702 7615 6563 5544 4554 3593 2659 1749 864 C 145326 20721 18533 16061 13843 11691 9605 7578 5607 3689 1821 A 5 72045 13700 12134 10619 9152 7730 6350 5010 3707 2439 1204 B 64584 12281 10877 9519 8204 6929 5693 4491 3323 2187 1080 C 21% Lighting devices 22% cooling Appliances American Scientific Research Journal for Engineering, Technology, and Sciences (ASRJETS) (2019) Volume 58, No 1, pp 1-11 11 The saved energy resulted from applying different scenarios, has increased through the years based on this calculation. Scenario 5 represents the highest percentage of saving compared with scenario 4. By the end of 2023, the saved energy will be 44.23%. Table 7 indicates the percentage of saved energy by implementing MEES according to the appliances energy efficiency class. The market share of each scenario is divided into energy efficiency classes A, B and C are by 40%, 30% and 30% respectively, in order to boost the number of efficient models in the market. 5. Conclusions Trend Component Method of Time Series is one of the best fit to predict power consumption in residential sector for the coming years from 2014 – 2023, and MAPE for Exponential is so good which is equal to (0.000001). From analyzing data, it was found that electricity consuming appliances in residential sector are Air- conditioner, Cold appliances and Lighting devices which consume about 34.95%, 13.55% and 13.20% from the total amount of residential power consumption respectively. Because of the three appliances are consuming the most of electricity consumption in residential sector which is about 79% from the highest energy consuming electric household appliances, different scenarios are adopted . References [1]. Informatics Center of the Iraqi Ministry of Electricity ICME (2013), Official data for production, consumption and distribution of electricity, Baghdad, Iraq. [2]. International Energy Agency IEA 2013, Iraq energy outlook, 75739 paris cedex, France . [3]. Schiellerup, p. (2002), an examination of the effectiveness of EU minimum standard on cold appliances: the British case, (3),327-332. [4]. Tao, J, Yu, S, (2011), Implementation of energy efficiency standards of household refrigerator/freezer in China: potential environment and economic impacts, applied energy, (88), 1890-1905. [5]. Alwiya M. abd alfattah (2012), Electricity savings and environmental impacts by implementing energy efficiency standards and labels for electrical appliances in Jordan, University of Jordan, Master [6]. Meyers, S., McMahon, J.E., McNneil, M., Liu, X., (2013), Impacts of US Fedral Energy Efficiency Standards for Residential Appliances, Energy Policy, 8(28), 755-767. [7]. Mahlia T.M.I., Masjuki, H.H., Sadur, R., Choudhury, I.A., Noorleha (2015), Projected electricity saving from implementing minimum energy efficiency standard for household refrigerators in Malaysia, Energy, (28) 751-754.