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ANNALS of
GEOPHYSICS

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia

[Special Issue]

The lava flow invasion hazard map at Mount Etna

and methods for its dynamic update

Editors

Ciro Del Negro
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia,
Sezione di Catania, Osservatorio Etneo, Catania, Italy

Stefano Gresta
Università di Catania,
Dipartimento di Scienze Geologiche, Catania, Italy



462

PrEfACE

ANNALS OF GEOPHYSICS, 54, 5, 2011; doi: 10.4401/ag-5517

This special issue of Annals of Geophysics contains seventeen peer-reviewed papers that cover a wide variety of topics
related to the V3-LAVA Project funded by the Italian Dipartimento della Protezione Civile in the framework of the 2007–
2009 Agreement with the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV). The frequent eruptions of Mount Etna
can produce lava flows that can cover distances long enough to invade vulnerable areas on the flanks of the volcano. These
require improvements to our forecasting tools for the effective assessment of lava-flow hazards, to help the local authorities
to make the necessary decisions during a volcanic eruption. The LAVA Project aims to develop, validate and unify methods
for mapping the areas around Etna that are threatened by lava invasion within the next 50 years, and also within the
immediate days after an eruption has begun. Both timescales of lava-hazard mapping call for estimations of the
probabilities of vent openings – using geological evidence over the long-term, and monitoring data over the short-term.
The application of numerical models to the simulation of lava-flow paths represents the central part of the extensive
methodology for long-term hazard assessment at Etna. These numerical simulations of lava-flow paths are based on our
knowledge of past Etnean eruptions, and are derived from the integration of historical and geological data, and from
adopting an updated digital representation of the topography on which the lava flow will be emplaced. The short-term
maps are dynamic instruments that can be rapidly modified by consideration of the signals collected by the monitoring
networks, the temporal evolution of the eruption, and the weighted opinions of the experts. Probabilities of vent opening
can be estimated using a Bayesian approach and expert elicitation (BET-EF). Once vents are assumed (or known), three
flow models for simulating lava paths have been compared – DOWNFLOW, SCIARA and MAGFLOW. A fourth modeling
approach, known as Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics, has also been introduced. Its implementation on graphic
processing units poses significant mathematical and computer-science challenges. It is not yet ready for side-by-side
comparisons with the three other models, but the method has gained much favor in other applications, and it will probably
be competitive in the not-too-distant future. 

Since physics-based models to simulate lava-flow paths require their effusion rates as an essential input parameter for
real-time scenarios, much effort has also been applied to the estimation of effusion rates in real time. The primary tools are
infrared remote sensing (SEVIRI, AVHRR and MODIS, with SEVIRI providing the best time resolution, and MODIS the
best spatial resolution). Satellite techniques are focused on hot-spot detection and effusion-rate estimation, to drive
numerical simulations of lava-flow paths during ongoing eruptive events. The various images are compiled in the
LAV@HAZARD web-GIS framework, from which information can be fed directly into MAGFLOW, and presumably into
other models as well. As satellite-derived lava eruption rates can be obtained in real time and simulations of several days of
eruption can be calculated in a few minutes, such a combined approach has the potential to provide timely predictions of
areas likely to be inundated with lava, which can be updated in response to changes in the eruption conditions. The
interactive capability of this architecture appears to be excellent – indeed, it is leading the way in dynamic hazard mapping. 

In summary, we believe that the LAVA Project has made major progress towards reliable long-term and short-term
lava-hazard maps. All of the methods in this project – for the estimation of vent-opening probabilities, effusion rates, and
flow scenarios – will undoubtedly continue to evolve. However, they are already useable and are providing a great service
to the population around Mount Etna. Many parts of the LAVA Project are at the cutting edge of volcanology worldwide.
It is an outstanding project, and we thank and congratulate all of the contributors.

Ciro Del Negro
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Catania, Osservatorio Etneo, Catania, Italy

Stefano Gresta
Università di Catania, Dipartimento di Scienze Geologiche, Catania, Italy



Acknowledgements. We would like to express our sincere gratitude to Enzo Boschi, who has always encouraged
and supported our work. We wish to thank the overall coordinator, Paolo Papale, and the members of the International
Evaluation Committee, Donald B. Dingwell, Jörg Keller and Chris Newhall, for their many and fruitful discussions. We also
express our appreciation to the Editorial Board of the Annals of Geophysics, for accepting and supporting our proposal for
a Special Issue on the LAVA Project, to the Editor-in-Chief, Edoardo Del Pezzo, for assisting the Guest Editors and Authors,
and for all of the work that has been done to make the publication of this volume possible. Special thanks also go to the
Referees, for their efforts to ensure and improve the scientific quality and consistency of the manuscripts: 

Prof. Nikolaus A. Adams, Institute of Aerodynamics and Fluid Mechanics, University of Munich, Germany
Prof. Mark Bebbington, Institute of Fundamental Sciences, Massey University, New Zealand
Dr. Matthew Blackett, Department of Geography, Environment & Disaster Management, Coventry University, UK
Dr. Alfonso Brancato, Dipartimento di Scienze Geologiche, Università di Catania, Italy
Dr. Sonia Calvari, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Catania, Osservatorio Etneo, Italy
Dr. Long Chen, Qualcomm Incorporated, San Diego, CA, USA
Prof. Corrado Cigolini, Dipartimento di Scienze Mineralogiche e Petrologiche, Università di Torino, Italy
Prof. Pierfrancesco Dellino, Dipartimento Geomineralogico, Università di Bari, Italy
Prof. Rosa Di Maio, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Univeristà di Napoli, Italy
Dr. Alicia Felpeto, Observatorio Geofísico Central, Instituto Geográfico Nacional, Madrid, Spain
Prof. Fabrizio Ferrucci, Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, France
Dr. Marilena Filippucci, Centro di Ricerca per il Rischio Sismico e Vulcanico, Università di Bari, Italy
Dr. Sonia Giovinazzi, Natural Hazards Research Centre, University of Canterbury, New Zealand
Dr. Gerard Gorman, Department of Earth Science & Engineering, Imperial College London, UK
Prof. Gianluca Groppelli, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Università di Milano, Italy
Dr. Barbara Hirn, IES Consulting Ltd., Intelligence for Environment and Security, Rome, Italy
Prof. Matthew D. Jones, Center for Computational Research, University at Buffalo, USA
Dr. Valerio Lombardo, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Centro Nazionale Terremoti, Italy
Dr. Giovanni Macedonio, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Vesuviano, Italy
Dr. Francesco Marchese, Istituto di Metodologie per l'Analisi Ambientale, CNR, Potenza, Italy
Prof. Alexander R. McBirney, Department of Geological Sciences, University of Oregon, USA
Dr. Gianluca Norini, Dipartimento di Scienze Geologiche e Geotecnologie, Università di Milano, Italy
Dr. Massimo Pompilio, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, Italy
Prof. Sergio Pugnaghi, Dipartimento di Ingegneria dei Materiali e dell´Ambiente, UNIMORE, Italy
Prof. Rocco Rongo, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Università della Calabria, Italy
Prof. Laurent Royon, Département Génie Thermique et Energie, IUT de Marne la Vallée, France
Prof. Roberto Scandone, Dipartimento di Fisica, Università Roma TRE, Italy
Dr. David R. Sherrod, U.S. Geological Survey, Hawaii, USA
Prof. William Spataro, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Università della Calabria, Italy
Prof. Roberto Sulpizio, Dipartimento Geomineralogico, Università di Bari, Italy
Prof. Jean-Claude Tanguy, Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, France
Dr. Simone Tarquini, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, Italy
Dr. Sudarshan Tiwari, Fraunhofer Institut für Techno- und Wirtschaftmathematik, Kaiserslautern, Germany
Prof. Giuseppe A. Trunfio, Dipartimento di Architettura Design e Urbanistica, Università di Sassari, Italy
Dr. Renato Umeton, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, USA
Dr. Frans van den Berg, Meraka Institute, CSIR, Pretoria, South Africa
Dr. Nick Varley, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Colima, Colima, Mexico
Prof. Leonid F. Vitushkin, D. I. Mendeleyev Institute for Metrology, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation
Prof. Peter Webley, Alaska Volcano Observatory, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Alaska, USA.

SPECIAL ISSUE: V3-LAVA PROJECT

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