Lauciani_FC_corretto_Layout 6 631 ShakeMaps during the Emilia sequence Valentino Lauciani*, Licia Faenza, Alberto Michelini Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Centro Nazionale Terremoti, Roma, Italy ANNALS OF GEOPHYSICS, 55, 4, 2012; doi: 10.4401/ag-6160 1. Introduction ShakeMap is a software package that can be used to gen- erate maps of ground shaking for various peak ground mo- tion (PGM) parameters, including peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity, and spectral acceleration re- sponse at 0.3 s, 1.0 s and 3.0 s, and instrumentally derived in- tensities. ShakeMap has been implemented in Italy at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV; Na- tional Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology) since 2006 (http://shakemap.rm.ingv.it), with the primary aim being to help the Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (DPC; Civil Protection Department) civil defense agency in the defini- tion of rapid and accurate information on where earthquake damage is located, to correctly direct rescue teams and to or- ganize emergency responses. Based on the ShakeMap soft- ware package [Wald et al. 1999, Worden et al. 2010], which was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the INGV is constructing shake maps for ML ≥3.0, with the adop- tion of a fully automatic procedure based on manually re- vised locations and magnitudes [Michelini et al. 2008]. The focus of this study is the description of the progressive gen- eration of these shake maps for the sequence that struck the Emilia-Romagna Region in May 2012. At its core, ShakeMap is a seismologically based interpo- lation algorithm that exploits the available data of the ob- served ground motions and the available seismological knowledge, to produce maps of ground motion at local and regional scales. Thus, in addition to data that are essential to derive realistic and accurate results, the fundamental ingredi- ents for obtaining accurate maps are: the ground-motion pre- diction equation (GMPE), as a function of distance at different periods, and for different magnitudes; and realistic descriptions of the amplifications that the local site geology induces on the incoming seismic wavefield; i.e., the site effects. In its current version, ShakeMap relies on regional attenuation laws and local site amplifications based on the S-wave velocities in the uppermost 30 m (VS30) to generate its PGM maps. In this report, we start with a chronicle of the genera- tion of the shake maps for the two strongest earthquakes of the sequence, and we conclude with a comment on the crit- ical aspects of the procedure we adopted. 2. The May 20, 2012, ML 5.9 earthquake In this section, we present a concise description of the evolution of the ShakeMap determination for the May 20, 2012, ML 5.9 earthquake. (i) The automatic final earthquake location (origin time, 02:03:52 GMT; latitude, 44.89˚N; longitude, 11.27˚E; depth, 4.95 km) was available at 02:07:23; 4 min after the origin time. (ii) The manually revised location became available 20 min after the origin time, with a similar location, but slightly different depth (6.3 km). (iii) For the magnitude estimation, the first automatic de- termination, which became available within about 4 min from the origin time, was ML 5.9. The manual revision, which was available after 20 min, confirmed the same value. The first moment magnitude was available 1.5 h later, as MW 5.9. (iv) The first shake map based on the revised location and magnitude came out a couple of minutes after the final re- vised location, without any data, as it relied only on the epi- central information, the GMPE and the site effects. For technical reasons, the procedure to download the data failed. Only 50 min from the origin time were the observed data in- cluded in ShakeMap. The data availability during the main events suffered from saturation of the near-source broadband recordings, as discussed in Faenza et al. [2011]. Also, Faenza et al. [2011] stressed the importance of availing to the observed data to accurately reproduce the ground shaking experienced. In particular, the importance of the strong-motion data was indicated, which do not saturate at distances close to the epi- center, where source effects on ground shaking, which are hardly predicted by the GMPEs, can strongly influence the near-source shaking. In contrast to what occurred with the L'Aquila mainshock, this time the INGV strong-motion data were available. Unfortunately, the event occurred in an area with poor spatial coverage, and the closest strong-motion sta- tion was located at ca. 50 km. Moreover, to prevent errors in the magnitude and/or inter-event variability, ShakeMap Article history Received July 24, 2012; accepted September 19, 2012. Subject classification: Ground motion, Surveys, measurements and monitoring, Interments and techniques, Seismological data. 2012 EMILIA EARTHQUAKES adopts a bias correction [Worden et al. 2010] to match the ob- served data and the predicted ground motion. (v) Based on the time domain moment tensor solution [Scognamiglio et al. 2012, this volume], the scaling laws [Wells and Coppersmith 1994], and the geology, with the analysis of the active tectonic structures in the area and their orientation, the fault could be included the morning after the event, to better constrain the shaking in the epicentral area (see Figure 1). (vi) The data of the Rete Accelerometrica Italiana (RAN; Italian Accelerometric Network) maintained by the DPC became available only 10 days after the mainshock. We note that the inclusion of these data is relevant, as they in- crease the spatial sampling of the ground shaking near the LAUCIANI ET AL. 632 Figure 1. Final ShakeMap for the May 20, 2012, ML 5.9 earthquake. Event location and magnitude from INGV seismic center, peak ground motion data from INGV (red triangles) and RAN (blue triangles). Intensities expressed in terms of the Mercalli modified scale (top left panel) and PGA (top right panel). Left bottom panel: GMPE as a function of distance. PGA values of Akkar and Bommer [2010] (bottom left panel: solid red line, straight predic- tions; solid green line, bias corrected predictions). Thin green lines, uncertainties resulting from the adopted relations and used as flagging/unflagging outlier thresholds. The bias factor is -0.47. Other colors are assigned to data obtained from other networks. Right bottom panel: Uncertainty ratio PGA map. The Figure shows how much the map relies on real data (blue) or on estimation (white to red). 633 source – the strong motion station in Mirandola lies ca. 10 km from the surface fault projection (see Figure 1). 3. The May 29, 2012, ML 5.8 earthquake Immediately after the May 20, 2012, ML 5.9 earthquake, a temporary seismic network was installed in the epicentral area. Twenty-four seismic stations were installed by the INGV, and 36 more by others Institutes (the Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale [INOGS], the DPC, the Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris [IPGP], and others) [see details in Moretti et al. 2012, this volume]; all but 10 of these stations were stand-alone. These just-mentioned 10 stations were set to transfer the data in real-time to the INGV seismic center in Rome, and six of them were provided with strong-motion recorders. The resulting spatial configuration of the deployed networks greatly increased the spatial coverage in the near- source region, compared to the pre-sequence configuration. 3.1. The ground motion parameters from Earthworm On May 4, 2012, a new system, Advanced Italian Data Acquisition for Seismology (AIDA) [Mazza et al. 2012, this volume], was implemented at the INGV as the primary tool RAPID SHAKEMAP IN EMILIA Figure 2. Final ShakeMap for the May 29, 2012, ML 5.8 earthquake. As for Figure 1. The bias factor is -0.53. to monitor, analyze, save and distribute the Italian National Seismic Network seismograms. This system is based on the Earthworm software [Johnson et al. 1995]. As mentioned above in the description of the ShakeMap for the May 20, 2012, earthquake (Section 2), the procedure used to generate the maps suffered from a temporal delay due to two primary factors. First, the ShakeMap procedure waits until the manually revised event location is ready be- fore starting the waveform download, and secondly, the pro- cedure got intertwined with other procedures that were similarly requesting data. It was found that while this approach works satisfactory for medium-sized events, for strong events (or during seismic se- quences) within the Italian territory, it is severely affected by the slow-down caused by the delayed responses of the data wave server. Thus, while following the experience of the May 20, 2012, earthquake, and while exploiting the Earthworm system, we decided to activate the GMEW (http://www.isti2.com/ ew/ovr/gmew ovr.html) module to determine the PGM pa- rameters suitable for ShakeMap in real-time. Specifically, the up- grade of the procedure was implemented in test-mode on a dedicated server, making the publication of shake maps possible a very few minutes from the earthquake occurrence. The new module prepares the data for the analysis by checking for gaps, and removes the mean, and then processes the traces in the frequency domain using fast Fourier trans- form, and removes the instrument response. The GMEW module calculates the acceleration, velocity, displacement and spectra responses for the three periods of 0.3 s, 1.0 s, and 3.0 s, with 0.5% damping, for all of the traces, and then it writes an XML file formatted for ShakeMap applications for stations readings. 3.2. ShakeMap evolution of the May 29 ML 5.8 earthquake The description of the evolution of ShakeMap for the May 29, 2012, ML 5.8 earthquake follows. (i) The automatic final earthquake location (origin time, 07:00:03 GMT; latitude, 44.85˚N; longitude, 11.06˚E; depth, 8.21 km) was available at 07:04:22; 4 min after the origin time. (ii) The manual revised location became available 19 min from the origin time, with similar coordinates, but 2 km deeper. (iii) For the magnitude estimation, the first automatic de- termination that was available at the same time after the ori- gin time was ML 5.8. The manual revision confirmed the same value. The first moment magnitude was available was 1 h and 45 min later, as MW 5.7. (iv) The first shake map was calculated using the auto- matic final earthquake location and magnitude, using the new Earthworm module to calculate the PGM parameters; it became available 4 min after the origin time on the dedi- cated server mentioned above. (v) The published shake map was calculated using the reviewed final earthquake location and magnitude, and it came out 19 min after the origin time on the public server. In addition, the temporary seismic network guaranteed good spatial coverage in the epicentral area (see Figure 2). (vi) As for the May 20, 2012, ML 5.9 earthquake, based on the time domain moment tensor solution [Scognamiglio et al. 2012], the scaling laws [Wells and Coppersmith 1994], and the geology, the fault could be included 2 h after the origin time. (vii) The RAN data could be included in a shake map only after almost two weeks from the earthquake occur- rence, when the data become available (see Figure 2). 4. Discussion In May 2012, a seismic sequence struck the Emilia-Ro- magna Region, an area in the Po Valley that had already been hit by moderate-sized earthquakes in the past, and was known for its centuries-old seismic history [Castelli et al. 2012, this volume]. In this study, we describe the progressive determination of ShakeMap as more information became available after the mainshocks of May 20 and 29, 2012. It is well known that inclusion of observed data is of fundamental importance in the calculation of shake maps. Indeed, accurate quantifications of PGM near the epicenter that avail solely of the PGM prediction equations and the site-effect corrections are difficult and prone to macroscopic errors and bias [Faenza et al. 2011]. Moreover, for larger earthquakes that saturate the recordings of the velocimeters at and near the epicenter, the accuracy of the shake maps de- pends also on the prompt availability of strong-motion data. The May 20, 2012, ML 5.9 earthquake certainly did not have enough data to produce accurate maps of the PGM given the very poor station coverage in the epicentral area. Figure 3 shows the improvement in the quantification of the ground shaking with the inclusion of the source model and new data. The comparison was done following the real temporal evolution of the maps available online, and it was quantified using differential PGA maps. The top panel in Figure 3 illustrates the role of the source model. It was calcu- lated by subtracting the 'preliminary' shake map based on the INGV data without a source model from the one that included the source model. This first preliminary shake map stayed on- line for 1 day. Figure 3 shows a different pattern in the near- source shaking due to the adoption of the Joyner-Boore distance measure from the fault location. Indeed, the point source approximation leads to an underestimation of the PGA in near source of almost 8%g. The bottom panel of Figure 3 quantifies the role of the near-source stations. It compares the PGA based on the INGV data only (as previously mentioned, for the first weeks, the map relies only on INGV data; Figure 1, red triangles) with the 'final' one available on line at the time. This last map is calculated using both the INGV and the RAN data. Figure 3 illustrates the importance of the near-source sta- tions; in this case, only the RAN station of Mirandola was LAUCIANI ET AL. 634 635 RAPID SHAKEMAP IN EMILIA Figure 3. Differential PGA map of the ShakeMap for the May 20, 2012, ML 5.9 earthquake. Top panel: The map is calculated as the difference between the map based on the INGV data with the source model and the 'preliminary' map calculated without the source model. Bottom panel: The map is cal- culated as the difference between the map based on the INGV and the RAN data, as the 'final' shake map. with the one based on the INGV data only. The map highlights the importance of the near-source MRN (Mirandola) station, with an increase in the shaking of ca. 10%g in the west fault area. 11˚00' 11˚00' 11˚30' 11˚30' 12˚00' 12˚00' 44˚30' 44˚30' 45˚00' 45˚00' MANTOVA VERONA PADOVA ROVIGO REGGIO NELL’EMILIA MODENA BOLOGNA FERRARA Differential Map: INGV + RAN DATA � INGV DATA PGA(%g) �10 �8 �6 �4 �2 0 2 4 6 8 10 10˚30' 10˚30' 11˚00' 11˚00' 11˚30' 11˚30' 44˚30' 44˚30' 45˚00' 45˚00' MANTOVA VERONA PADOVA ROVIGO REGGIO NELL’EMILIA MODENA BOLOGNA FERRARA Differential Map: INGV DATA � INGV DATA Without source model PGA(%g) �10 �8 �6 �4 �2 0 2 4 6 8 10 close to the epicenter. This station strongly drives the shaking in the near source, with an increase of almost 10%g in the west fault area, which indicates an underestimation of the ground motion by the GMPE in the near-source area. Fortunately, the installation of the temporary stations in the epicentral area provided fair coverage for the May 29, 2012, event. This increased accuracy is well expressed by the map of the uncertainties of Figure 2 (bottom-right panel). There are several sources of uncertainties in ShakeMap calculations, including sparse station networks, fault finiteness, and the GMPE [Wald et al. 2008]. The uncertainly map represents the ratio between the actual standard deviation (e.g., the standard deviation of each point of the ShakeMap grid) and the stan- dard deviation of the GMPE. The uncertainties in ShakeMap follow a weight scheme, which depends on the source of the data [see Worden et al. 2010, for details]. The intent of the bot- tom-right panels of Figure 1 and Figure 2 is to reveal the im- portance of the station spatial coverage in the calculation of the shake maps, and its improvement after the installation of the temporary stations. The maps follow a color-based scale, where the red areas are poorly constrained, the white areas have the uncertainties represented by the standard deviation of the GMPE, and the blue areas are better constrained and represent the seismic stations [Wald et al. 2008]. Figure 1 (bot- tom-right panel) shows that the shaking defined for the first event relies almost entirely on the GMPE and source model, while this condition is substantially changed for the May 29, 2012, ML 5.8 earthquake (Figure 2, bottom-right panel). A matter of concern remains the persistent unavailabil- ity in the short term of the accelerometric data recorded by the RAN. Calculation of the shake maps is important for the emergency response, since they provide the 'first-cut' esti- mates of the impact of an earthquake. Due to their nature and to the interpolations they rely upon, the shake maps can- not be considered as an instrument to be used much further than the initial estimation of the ground shaking. In this re- gard, despite many efforts and projects towards almost real- time data sharing, it is still impossible to access the RAN data for fast shake-map estimations. The availability of the data (on request) two weeks after the earthquake occurrence defi- nitely appears to be a little too long in a world where infor- mation is spread almost instantaneously through social networks, and there might be something more that should be done to improve this situation. Comparing the previous experience in 2009 with the L'Aquila sequence, the main changes in the ShakeMap pro- cedure relate to data access, for the accelerometric stations. In addition, during the sequence itself, we were able to mod- ify the procedure to calculate the peak parameters, further reducing the computational time and providing the possibil- ity to disengage from the queues caused by the simultane- ous data requests of other procedures. After the first event, the existing procedure that relied on requesting the wave- form data as a full SEED volume, which was then processed to extract the relevant PGM parameters, was replaced by the GMEW module of Earthworm. This does not require off- line requests, and the parameters are determined on-the-fly from the incoming data streams and starting from the auto- matic earthquake location provided by Earthworm. As a final comment, Figure 4 shows the number of visits to the ShakeMap portal throughout the sequence. The in- crement in the public interest in ShakeMap during the strong events is clear. During the sequence, more than 200 ShakeMaps were calculated, 28 with 4 ≤ M < 5 and 7 with M ≥5. Acknowledgements. We thank the editors of the Special Issue on the Emilia sequence for the support in the writing and publication phases of our manuscript. References Akkar, S., and J.J. Bommer (2010). Empirical equations for the prediction of PGA, PGV, and spectral accelerations in Europe, the Mediterranean region, and the Middle East, Seismol. Res. Lett., 81, 195-206. Castelli, V., F. Bernardini, R. Camassi, C.H. Caracciolo, E. Ercolani and L. Postpischl (2012). Looking for missing earthquake traces in the Ferrara-Modena plain: an up- LAUCIANI ET AL. 636 Figure 4. Number of visits to the ShakeMap portal, starting a week before the main event of the sequence. The majority of the visits were from within Italy. 637 date on historical seismicity, Annals of Geophyics, 55 (4); doi:10.4401/ag-6110. Faenza, L., V. Lauciani and A. Michelini (2011). Rapid deter- mination of the shake maps for the L'Aquila main shock: a critical analysis, B. Geofis. Teor. Appl., 52, 407-425. Johnson, C.E., A. Bittenbinder, B. Bogaert, L. Dietz and W. Kohler (1995). Earthworm: a flexible approach to seis- mic network processing, IRIS Newsletter, 14, 1-4. Mazza, S., A. Basili, A. Bono, V. Lauciani, A.G. Mandiello, C. Marcocci, F. Mele, S. Pintore, M. Quintiliani, L. Sco- gnamiglio and G. Selvaggi (2012). AIDA – Seismic data acquisition, processing, storage and distribution at the National Earthquake Center, INGV, Annals of Geo- physics, 55 (4); doi:10.4401/ag-6145. Michelini, A., L. Faenza, V. Lauciani and L. Malagnini (2008). ShakeMap implementation in Italy, Seismol. Res. Lett., 79, 688-697. Moretti, M., et al. (2012). Rapid response to the earthquake emergency of May 2012 in the Po Plain, northern Italy, Annals of Geophysics, 55 (4); doi:10.4401/ag-6152. Scognamiglio, L., L. Margheriti, F.M. Mele, E. Tinti, A. Bono, P. De Gori, V. Lauciani, F.P. Lucente, A.G. Mandiello, C. Marcocci, S. Mazza, S. Pintore and M. Quintiliani (2012). The 2012 Pianura Padana Emiliana seimic sequence: lo- cations, moment tensors and magnitudes, Annals of Geo- physics, 55 (4); doi:10.4401/ag-6159. Wald, D.J., V. Quitoriano, T.H. Heaton, H. Kanamori, C.W. Scrivner and C.B. Worden (1999). Trinet 'ShakeMaps': rapid generation of peak ground motion and intensity maps for earthquakes in southern California, Earthq. Spectra, 15, 537. Wald, DJ., L, Kuo-Wan and V. Quitoriano (2008). Quanti- fying and qualifying USGS ShakeMap uncertainty, U.S. Geol. Surv. Open File Report 2008-1238. Wells, D.L., and K.J. Coppersmith (1994). New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rup- ture width, rupture area, and surface displacement, B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 84, 974-1002. Worden, C.B., D.J. Wald, T.I. Allen, K. Lin, D. Garcia and G. Cua (2010). A revised ground-motion and intensity interpolation scheme for ShakeMap, B.. Seismol. Soc. Am., 100, 3083-3096. *Corresponding author: Valentino Lauciani, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Centro Nazionale Terremoti, Roma, Italy; email: valentino.lauciani@ingv.it © 2012 by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia. All rights reserved. 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