




































Asian Finance & Banking Review; Vol. 2, No. 1; 2018 

ISSN 2576-1161   E-ISSN 2576-1188 

Published by Centre for Research on Islamic Banking & Finance and Business 

 

 
 

1 

 

Debt-Growth Bond in Nigeria: Structural Break Analysis 

 
Emmanuel O. Okon

1
 & Halirat Umar

1
 

 

1
Department of Economics, Kogi State University, Anyigba, Kogi State, Nigeria 

Correspondence: Emmanuel O. Okon, Department of Economics,  Kogi State University, Anyigba, Kogi State, 

Nigeria, E-mail: tonydom57@yahoo.com. Tel: +2348023275716  

 

 

Received:  January 7, 2018                  Accepted: January 9, 2018                   Online Published: January 11, 2018   

 

Abstract 

This study examined the structural break relationship between external debt and economic growth from 1985 to 

2016 with a view to examine the effect of external debt relief on economic growth in Nigeria. The study used the 

ordinary least square technique. In addition, it employed the chow test and also adopted the similarity of error 

variances test in its analysis. From the results and analysis, it was revealed that external debt stock (EXD) is 

positively and insignificantly related to RGDP. It was concluded that the 2005 external debt relief did significantly 

caused a change in external debt, external debt service relations with economic growth in Nigeria. Based on these 

findings, the study suggested that external finance should be used only for projects of highest priority. Spending of 

external debt on productive self-liquidating investments must be strictly adhered to while projects to be financed 

with external loan must be properly appraised. 

 

Keywords: Debt, Growth, Structural Break, Similarity of Error Variances Test, Nigeria 

1. Introduction  

The motive behind external debt is to boost economic growth and development of any nation but as a result of future 

high debt service payments, it poses a serious threat to the economy of that nation. Economic researchers have 

therefore sought out to investigate the implication of external debt burden on the economies of debtor nations and 

have come up with diverse views (Safdariand Mehrizi, 2011; Ejigayehu, 2013). Base on the empirical analysis of 

(Elbadawi et al., 1997; Pattilo et al., 2004; Clements et al., 2003) that the debt-growth relationship follows a bell-

shaped curve where, beyond a certain threshold, the impact of debt on growth becomes negative. This suggests that 

debt relief can reduce the debt stock below that peak threshold, which helps to reinstate the incentives to invest. This 

threshold is similar to the debt overhang that Nigeria has experienced which led to the 1999 struggle for debt relief. 

Many studies have been conducted in Nigeria to investigate whether or not debt relief granted to Nigeria is effective 

in improving its economic growth(Fosu, 2007;Omotola and Saliub, 2011;Ekperiware and Oladeji, 2012).Bakare 

(2010) investigated whether or not debt relief granted to Nigeria is effective in improving its economic growth and 

development. The results show that debt overhang problem of Nigeria had been alleviated by the debt forgiveness 

but the growth indicator was not positively influenced by the debt service relief which one would expect. The 

answer to the question of the study –if debt relief has brought an improvement to the economic performance of the 

nation so far is therefore disillusioning. All in all, the findings suggest that the debt relief has not led to high 

economic growth in Nigeria. This result is similar to what were found in similar studies for some highly indebted 

countries, which have received debt relief.  

The review of empirical and methodological issues show that authors have used paired sample t-test statistics, to 

using Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), to using quarterly time series in studying the debt relief granted to 

Nigeria effective in improving economic growth. However, this study examined the structural break relationship 

between external debt and economic growth from 1985 to 2016 with a view to examine the effect of external debt 

relief on economic growth in Nigeria. 

2. Research Methodology 

This study relies heavily on data collected from secondary sources covering the period 1985-2016. The choice of 

this period is because Nigerian external debt really began to mount within this period and the 1999 struggle for debt 

relief that finally came in 2005. To be précised, from 1985 to2005 is the period preceding the October 2005 external 



 
 

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2 
 

debt cancellation and from 2006 to 2016 is the post debt cancellation period. The period is furthermore justified 

because of availability of data. The data were collected from Statistical Bulletin of the Central Bank of Nigeria. 

Annual time series of external debt, external debt service, exchange rate and real gross domestic product (RGDP) 

were used to determine the structural break effect of external debt on economic growth in Nigeria as a result of debt 

relief. The time series variables when used in their explosive form often leads to spurious regression results which 

mislead policy. In view of the above, this study adopted Augmented Dicky Fuller (ADF) test for unit root in order to 

attain stationarity of the series. Thereafter, the study used the ordinary least square technique because of its qualities: 

best linear unbiased estimates. In addition, the study employed the chow test and also adopted the similarity of error 

variances test in its analysis. The chow test is a test that determines if the coefficients from two regression analyses 

are the same where each of the equations represents a different group. The null hypothesis is then tested by running 

three (3) regressions: one for each group and one for the entire sample. Thereafter, the F-test is employed to 

determine if the models are significantly different from one another. The analysis was conducted with the use of E-

views software. 

2.1 Model Specification 

The relationship between economic development and public debt in developing countries has largely been based on 

a standard production function model: 

Y = F(K,L)         ---------------(1) 

Where Y, L and K are measures of output, capital and labor respectively. According to debt overhang theory, if the 

debt of a country is more than its repayment capacities, this discrepancy will negatively affect investment and the 

ability to work and therefore affect the growth of the economy. The present study includes external debt, external 

debt service and exchange rate in the growth function. The study extended the function from Eq (1) to Eq (2) as:  

Y= F(External debt, External debt service, Exchange rate)       ----------- (2) 

In Eq (2), the variables are used in order to determine the individual effects on economic growth. This study 

therefore adopts the Cobb-Douglas production function to establish the output equation for Nigeria for the 30 years 

period, 1985 to 2014. 

𝑅𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑡 =  𝐴𝑡𝐸𝑥𝐷𝑡
𝛼𝐸𝐷𝑆𝑡

𝛽
𝐸𝑥𝑅𝑡

𝛾
                                                               ……… (3) 

 

Where α, 𝛽 and 𝛾 are treated as the elasticity coefficients of the external debt service and exchange rate respectively 

by undertaking a simple manipulation of taking the natural logarithms on both sides, Eq (3) is re-written 

econometrically as: 

𝐼𝑛 𝑅𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑡 =  𝐴𝑡 + 𝑙𝑛𝐸𝑥𝐷𝑡 + 𝐵𝑙𝑛 𝐸𝐷𝑆𝑡 + 𝛾𝐸𝑥𝑅𝑡 + µ
𝑡

                    ………… (4) 

 

Two periods were observed: Pre and post 2005 external debt relief periods. Thus, we have 3 possible regression 

specifications: 

Time period 1985-2005 

log 𝑌𝑡 = 𝑎0 + 𝑎1 log 𝑊𝑡 + 𝑎2 log 𝑋𝑡 + 𝑎3𝑍𝑡 … + 𝜇1𝑡           ------------ (5) 

Time period 2005-2016 

log 𝑌𝑡 = 𝑏0 + 𝑏1 log 𝑊𝑡 + 𝑏2 log 𝑋𝑡 + 𝑏3𝑍𝑡 … + 𝜇2𝑡              ---------- (6) 

Time period 1985-2016 

log 𝑌𝑡 = 𝑐0 + 𝑐1 log 𝑊𝑡 + 𝑐2 log 𝑋𝑡 + 𝑐3𝑍𝑡 … + 𝜇𝑡            ------------ (7) 

Where:𝑌𝑡  = Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP); 𝑊𝑡   = External Debt Stock (EXD); 𝑋𝑡  = External Debt Service 

(EDS); 𝑍𝑡  = Exchange Rate (EXR); 𝜇𝑡  = Error Term; 𝑎1 …𝑎𝑛 , 𝑏1 …𝑏𝑛 , 𝑐1 …𝑐𝑛= Slopes of the variables for 

estimation; 𝑎0 , 𝑏0, 𝑐0= Constant factors. 

Real Gross Domestic Product is a measure that reflects the value of goods and services produced in a given year. It 

is used to capture economic growth in this study because it is adjusted for inflation and as such provide a more 

accurate figure. External Debt Stock is the amount at which the debt was contracted and it is used as a proxy for 

capturing external debt burden. External Debt Service Payment is the amount used in repaying the external debt it is 

also. It is also used as proxy for capturing external debt burden. Exchange rate is the price of a nation’s currency in 

terms of another currency. It is included in the model because it is a macroeconomic indicator and it is also a 

monetary aggregate in the open economy. Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), External Debt Stock (EXD) and 

External Debt Service Payment (EDS) were logged due to the large nature of their values. Exchange Rate (EXR) 

was not logged because it is a rate. The signs of these variables are based on apriori expectation. That is, the 



 
 

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direction of the relationship between the respective independent variables and the explained variable is according to 

their relationship in standard economic theory. As such, the following should be expected:  

a1, b1,c1>0; a2, b2,c2<0;   a3, b3,c3>0   

3. Results and Discussion 

3.1 Chow Test Estimation Result 

Between 1985 and 2005 

LOG (RGDP) = 5.359553+0.028237LOG (EXD) + 0.078189LOG (EDS) 

                        +0.001124(EXR) 

t= (46.63572) (0.906126) (2.612029) (1.849598) 

R
2
1=0.923    RSS1=0.080745 

With n-p = 21-4 = 8 degrees of freedom. 

Between 2005 and 2016 

LOG (RGDP) = 6.042885+0.221290LOG (EXD)-0.407947LOG (EDS) 

                        +0.106639(EXR) 

t= (-0.798684) (0.245013) (-0.918506) (2.237796) 

R
2
2=0.777      RSS2=11.57505 

With m-p = 10-4 = 6 degrees of freedom. 

Between 1985 to 2016 

LOG (RGDP) =7.013861+0.063843LOG (EXD)-0.777105LOG (EDS) 

                      +0.032633(EXR) 

t= (5.645435) (0.241586) (-3.457135) (6.721853) 

R
2
=0.666       RSS=35.90344 

With (n + m – 2p) = 21+10-4 degrees of freedom. 

In the preceding regressions, the figures in parentheses are the estimated T values and the formula for calculating the 

F statistics is as thus: 

𝐹 =
 𝑒1𝑒 − 𝑒1

1𝑒1 − 𝑒2
1𝑒2 /𝑝

 𝑒1
1𝑒1 + 𝑒2

1𝑒2 𝑛 + 𝑚 − 2𝑝
 

Where  

𝑒1
, 𝑒1 = 𝑅𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑑𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑆𝑢𝑚 𝑜𝑓 𝑆𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑠1           

𝑒2
1𝑒2=  Residual Sum of Squares 2 

𝑒1𝑒  = Residual Sum of Squares (Pooled) 

P = number of parameters 

n = number of observation 1 

m = number of observation 2. 

3.1.1 Testing the Similarity of Error Variances 

A crucial requirement underlying the usage of chow test and to rely on the result is that the error variances in the 

regressions 1 and 2 are the same (Gujarati and Sangeetha, 2007). Since we cannot observe the true error variances of 

group 1 and 2, we can observe their estimates from the RSS given in regression 1 and 2. 

𝛿 1
2 =

𝑒1
, 𝑒1

𝑛 − 3
=

0.080745

21 − 3
=

0.080745

18
= 0.0044858 

𝛿 2
2 =

𝑒2
, 𝑒2

𝑚 − 3
=

11.57505

10 − 3
=

11.57505

7
= 1.6535786 

𝐹 =
𝛿 1

2

𝛿 2
2

=
0.0044858

1.6535786
= 0.0027                                      

Since the F calculated (0.0027) is not greater than the critical F value (2.80), the null hypothesis of similarity of error 

variances is not to be rejected. This means that the error variances of the two sub period are statistically the same 

(that is, the sub regressions are from the same sampled population) and the chow test has been validly used. 

3.1.2 Discussion of Chow Test Result 

The computed F value is obtained as follows: 

𝐹 =
(35.90344 − 0.080745 − 11.57505) 4 

(0.080745 + 11.57505)  31 − 8  
 

=
24.247645 4 

11.655795 23 
 



 
 

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=
6.0619

0.5068
= 11.96                                                            

5 per cent critical F value F(4,23)=2.80 

Since the computed F value 11.96 is greater than the critical F value 2.80, the 2005 external debt relief did 

significantly caused a change in how external debt, external debt service and exchange rate relate with economic 

growth in Nigeria. The null hypothesis of no structural break between 1985 and 2016 is rejected. The chow test 

therefore seems to support our earlier hunch that the external debt-economic growth relation has undergone a 

structural change in Nigeria over the period 1985 to 2016 because of the 2005 external debt relief granted to Nigeria. 

It shows that the present external debt of Nigeria because of the debt relief has reduced the amount allotted for 

external debt servicing in the country. This has provided resources to growth enhancing investments in the country. 

3.2 Regression Results 

Table 1: 1985 to 2005 

VARIABLE COEFFICIENT STANDARD ERROR T-

STATISTICS 

PROBABILITY 

C 5.359553 0.114924 46.63572 0.0000 

LOG(EXD) 0.028237 0.031163 0.906126 0.3775 

LOG(EDS) 0.078189 0.029934 2.612029 0.0182 

EXR 0.001124 0.000608 1.849598 0.0818 

Source:  Computation using Eviews software 

 

R
2
 = 0.923377; Ṝ

2
 = 0.909856; F = 68.28892; DW = 1.107439 

Table 2: 2005 to 2016 

VARIABLE COEFFICIENT STANDARD ERROR t-statistics PROBABILITY 

C -6.042885 7.566057 -0.798684 0.4549 

LOG(EXD) 0.221290 0.903175 0.245013 0.8146 

LOG(EDS) -0.407947 0.444142 -0.918506 0.3938 

EXR 0.106639 0.047654 2.237796 0.0665 

Source: Computation using Eviews software 

 

R
2
 = 0.777130; Ṝ

2
 = 0.665695; F = 6.973852; DW = 2.394464 

Table 3: 1985 to 2016 

VARIABLE COEFFICIENT STANDARD ERROR t-statistics PROBABILITY 

C 7.013861 1.242395 5.645435 0.0000 

LOG(EXD) 0.063843 0.264265 0.241586 0.8110 

LOG(EDS) -0.777105 0.224783 -3.457135 0.0019 

EXR 0.032633 0.004855 6.721853 0.0000 

Source: Computation using Eviews software 

 

R
2
 = 0.665763; Ṝ

2
 = 0.627197; F = 17.26304; DW = 1.784465 

3.2.1 Discussion of Regression Results 

From the results above, the first regression (Table 1: 1985-2005) shows that the constant parameter is positively 

related to real gross domestic product (LRGDP) which implies that when other variables are held constant, the 

RGDP will increase by the value of 5.359533 units. The result shows that external debt stock (EXD) is positively 

related to RGDP. This conforms to apriori expectation. The implication is that holding other variables constant, a 

unit increase in EXD will lead to increase in RGDP by 0.028237 units. This positive relationship is because as at 

this period, government spending remained high and much of the projects were financed through external borrowing 

(Adebiyi and Olowookere, 2013).However, EXD is statistically insignificant at any conventional level (1%,5% or 

10%) indicating that EXD has no significant influence on economic growth in Nigeria. This is because before the 

debt relief government spending on some important projects were undertaken without sufficient attention being paid 

either to their economic viability or to the executive capacity of government (Adebiyi and Olowookere, 2013). The 

estimated results further showed that there is a positive relationship between RGDP and EDS (External Debt 

Servicing) indicating that a unit increase in EDS will lead to an increase in RGDP by 0.078189 units. This is 



 
 

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5 
 

because various debt management strategies and measures were undertaken (Adepojuet al., 2007). It also shows that 

EDS is statistically significant at 5 percent level. This result, however, does not comply with the apriori expectation. 

Furthermore, the result indicates positive significant relationship between exchange rate (EXR) and economic 

growth with a coefficient value of 0.01124, indicating that given other variables, a unit increase in Exchange Rate 

will lead to 0.001124 units increase in RGDP. This relationship is statistically significant at 10% level. This is 

because exchange rate has been on an increase and as the Naira exchange rate to the dollar increases, import is 

discouraged and export is encouraged thereby encouraging economic growth (Jhingan, 2005). The adjusted R2 of 

0.923 shows that 92.3 percent of changes in the country’s Real Gross Domestic Product is explained by the model. 

The Durbin Watson statistic of 1.107 suggests the presence of serial correlation and the F-ratio of 68.28892 confirms 

the overall significance of the explanatory variables taken together. 

Table 2(second regression: v2005-2014) shows that the constant parameter is negatively related to real gross 

domestic product (RGDP) which implies that when other variables are held constant, the RGDP will decrease by the 

value of 6.042885 units. The result shows that external debt stock (EXD) is positively related to RGDP. It reveals 

that a unit rise in EXD will lead to a fall in RGDP by 0.221290 units. The magnitude of EXD is slightly larger than 

experienced in Table 1.This positive relationship is because since after the debt relief, available statistics show that 

the external debt stock of Nigeria has been on the increase. This is because of the 2009 global financial and 

economic crises which was precipitated by the collapse of the sub-prime lending market in the united states 

(Romanus, 2014). As a result the benefits of the debt cancellation which was expected to manifest after a couple of 

years is wiped up. Nonetheless, EXD is statistically insignificant at any conventional level indicating that EXD has 

no significant influence on economic growth in Nigeria as was shown in Table 1 earlier.  

The result further indicated that there is an inverse relationship between RGDP and external debt service (EDS) 

indicating that a unit rise in EDS will cause to fall in RGDP by 0.407947 units. The negative sign displayed by 

(EDS) is contrary to what was exhibited in Table 1.Nevertheless, EDS is statistically insignificant meaning that the 

EDS does not really influence economic growth. This is contrary to earlier report depicted in Table 1 where it 

showed statistical significance. This is attributed to the fact that after the debt relief, Nigeria has serviced its external 

debt with less service cost. The debt relief which was supposed to manifest has been wiped up by the 2009 global 

financial and economic crisis (Romanus, 2014). 

Furthermore, the result in Table 2 indicates that exchange rate (EXR) has positive impact on economic growth. It 

shows that a unit increase in exchange rate will lead to 0.106639 unit increase in RGDP. It also shows that exchange 

rate is statically insignificant. Concerning the test of individual significance, most of the explanatory variables did 

not performed well with the exception of exchange rate (EXR). They all failed the t–test of significance at both the 1 

percent, 5 percent and 10 percent levels of significance as reflected in Table 2 above. This reveals the presence of 

multicolinearity among the variables in the estimated model. However, the Durbin Watson (DW) statistic of 2.394 

indicates the absence of serial correlation. The adjusted R
2
 value of 0.666 revealed that over 66.6 percent of the 

variation in RGDP was best explained by the independent variables after taking into consideration the degree of 

freedom. 

The 3
rd

 regression (Table 3: 1985-2016) suggested that the constant parameter is positively related to real gross 

domestic product (RGDP) which implies that when other variables are held constant, the RGDP will increase by the 

value of 7.013861 units. The result shows that external stock (EXD) is positively related to RGDP. As indicated, a 

unit increase in, will lead to increase in RGDP by 0.063843 units. Statistically, EXD is insignificant at any 

conventional level as shown in Tables 1 and 2. The results in Table 3 further indicated that there is an inversely 

significant between RGDP and external debt service (EDS).  As shown, a unit increase in EDS leads to a decrease in 

RGDP by 0.777105 units. Nonetheless, the sign borne by the parameter estimate of debt service (EDS) does 

conform to the a priori expectation. Furthermore, the result indicates existence of positive significant relation 

between exchange rate (EXR) and economic growth.  It reveals that a unit increase in exchange rate will lead to 

0.032633 unit increase in RGDP. The overall model is statistically significant judging with the results of F-statistics. 

The adjusted R
2
 value of 0.627 shows that 62.7 percent of the total variation is accounted for by the independent 

variables. The value of the Durbin-Watson (1. 784) statistics shows that there exist minimal serial or auto-

correlation. In the three models, the R
2
 were 0.923377, 0.777130 and 0.665763 respectively. This indicates that the 

independent variables explain the variation in RGDP in the tune of 92 per cent, 78 per cent and 67 per cent 

respectively. That is 92 per cent, 78 per cent and 67 per cent of the variations in RGDP is explained by the 

exogenous variables in the three models. 

 

 



 
 

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4. Conclusion and Policy Implication  

This study examined the structural break relationship between external debt and economic growth from 1985 to 

2016 with a view to examine the effect of external debt relief on economic growth in Nigeria. From the results and 

analysis, it was concluded that the 2005 external debt relief did significantly cause a change in external debt, 

external debt service relations with economic growth in Nigeria as shown by the chow test. Based on these findings, 

the study suggested that external finance should be used only for projects of highest priority. Spending of external 

debt on productive self-liquidating investments must be strictly adhered to while projects to be financed with 

external loan must be properly appraised. 

The government should ensure that the money saved from debt relief is invested in changing the lives of millions of 

people in Nigeria by providing more educational and health facilities and at most provide job opportunities for the 

growing population. 

The government should intensify its effort at diversifying the economy so that the increase in exchange rate will 

encourage economic growth rather than discouraging it. There should be a ban or embargo on importation of some 

certain goods which the country can produce. Hence, firm export promotion and import reduction policies. 

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