id	author	title	date	pages	extension	mime	words	sentence	flesch	summary	cache	txt
ajfa-10343	Mele, Marco	A Logical Process about the Chaos in FOREX Financial Market	2017	9	.pdf	application/pdf	4544	183	54	Non-linear systems exhibit complex effects that are not deductible with linear methods, especially characteristic of dynamic systems. In the literature, four basic reasons have been advanced concerning the non-linear models, and because not provide more accurate forecasts than simple linear models even when the assumption of linearity is significantly rejected for the estimation period (Diebold e Nason, 1990): (i) non-linearity affecting moments higher than the average and, therefore, does not prove useful to improve the point forecasts; (ii) non-linearity present during the estimation period are due to structural changes or outliers that cannot be exploited to improve the out-of-sample forecasts; (iii) non-linearities in average even though they are a feature of the data generating process are not relevant enough to offer most of the gains in terms of forecast accuracy; (iv) non-linearity present are described by the wrong type of non-linear model.	cache/ajfa-10343.pdf	txt/ajfa-10343.txt