Microsoft Word - 5822-20950-1-SM-writer2-new.doc Asian Journal of Finance & Accounting ISSN 1946-052X 2014, Vol. 6, No. 2 www.macrothink.org/ajfa 64 Is Temporary Trading Halt Mechanism for New Shares on The First Day of Trading Conducive to Curbing Speculations? Kai Shi School of Economics, Northeast Normal University 2555 Jingyue Street, Changchun 130117, P.R. China E-mail: shik142@nenu.edu.cn Li Nie Graduate School of Commerce and Management Administration Hitotsubashi University, 2-1 Naka, Kunitachi, Tokyo 186-8601, Japan E-mail: brilliant.so.kai@gmail.com Received: June 17, 2014 Accepted: July 30, 2014 Published: December 1, 2014 doi:10.5296/ajfa.v6i2.5822 URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.5296/ajfa.v6i2.5822 Abstract IPO underpricing as well as speculation on the first day of trading is a worldwide phenomenon. In order to curb IPO speculation risks, Shenzhen Stock Exchange makes an attempt to directly restrain price volatility and turnover rate through the Temporary Trading Halt Mechanism. This paper employs Rubin Causal Model and Genetic Matching method to evaluate and analyze real effects of the Mechanism. Empirical results show that, although it lowers the first-day turnover rate, the mechanism does push up first-day returns and first-day Price-to-Earning ratio. In fact, it keeps the closing price stay in a relatively high level, but is helpless for curbing risks. Keywords: Temporary Trading Halt Mechanism for IPOs on the First Day of Trading, Matching Method, Rubin Causal Inference Asian Journal of Finance & Accounting ISSN 1946-052X 2014, Vol. 6, No. 2 www.macrothink.org/ajfa 65 Introduction In China, speculative trading about newly listed shares is a typical drinking-game in which thousands of irrational investors may ignore stock fundamentals and follow suit to participate in the hype, and the finale is being hung up for a long time and suffering great losses. According to the statistics of Financial Innovation Laboratory of Shenzhen Stock Exchange, 497 of 583 newly listed shares between the beginning of 2010 and the end of February 2012, especially for 33 of 34 newly listings, whose first-day returns exceed 100%, have fallen below the first-day closing price, with an average drop of 23.15% and the maximum decline even outpaces 64.4%. The loss percent of individual investors in whose account the amount is less than 100 thousand yuan reaches up to 60.75%. Since the launch of Small-and-Medium Enterprise Board, especially for the beginning of IPO System Reform, Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE) has committed to explore the effective ways of refraining speculation. During the initiation of Growth Enterprise Market, SZSE made a first trial about the Temporary Trading Halt Mechanism for Newly-listed Shares during First-day Trading, and punished 9 short-term speculative accounts, who frequently partook in the hype, by restricting free transactions. In the wake of the effects of IPO System Reform gradually emerging, pricing in primary market becomes more and more reasonable; meanwhile, newly listed shares speculations in secondary market get to intensify once again. From the middle of February, 2012, the returns of 8 IPOs on the first-day of trading expands significantly, with an average rise of 62.65%, and over 60% shares’ first-day returns growth outpaces 50%, including 3 shares whose rises even exceed 80%. In order to take precautions against the risk of newly listed shares on the first-day of trading as well as cooperate with IPO System Reform, SZSE made a bold move which stressed direct executive interference on IPO shares’ first day performance and released “Notice on Further Optimizing the Temporary Trading Halt Mechanism for Newly-listed Shares during First-day Trading” (the Notice), highlighting the role of Trading Halt Mechanisms. Although SZSE has rolled out a series of new supporting measures for IPO reform, analysts still insist that these probably encourage speculations and bring individual investors more risks. Among copious literature relevant to IPO underpricing not many researches pay enough attention to IPOs first-day risk management. Ruud (1993) investigates the distribution of initial returns following IPOs and find a partially unobserved left tail effect. Ruud believes underwriter price support may account for the skewed distribution and challenges the presumption that IPO underpricing is deliberate. According to his logic, any IPO regulatory initiatives aimed at eliminate premium is redundant. Pettway and Kaneko (1996) explore the linkage between the change of IPO pricing regimes and new shares initial returns. They find that the price limits remove and auction mechanism introduction significantly reduce initial returns. Thus, risk management about initial returns may rely on market-oriented reforms. Krigman, Shaw and Womack (1999) show that IPO flipping is predictable and underwriters’ pricing errors are intentional. Thus, rational pricing is the very solution to restrain the risk of first-day flipping. Kao, Wu and Yang (2009) examine two sets of IPO regulatory initiatives, pricing regulations and penalty regulations and find pricing regulations may induce firms to manipulate pricing-period earnings thus negatively influence the post-IPO performance Asian Journal of Finance & Accounting ISSN 1946-052X 2014, Vol. 6, No. 2 www.macrothink.org/ajfa 66 whereas penalty regulations prevent firms from over-optimism about earnings forecast thus have positive impacts. Song, Tan and Yi (2014) evaluate the relative importance of IPO underpricing and overvaluation and find that overvaluation has more explanatory power on initial return. Its implication lies in what the regulatory commission should do is to reduce overvaluation but not to overly depend on controlling secondary market performance. In this paper, we focus on testing the real effects of the Notice which in fact sets a limitation for the price volatility of newly listed shares, and explore whether this measure lowers the risks or not. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to quantify the impacts of price control on the secondary market performance of IPOs during the first day of trading. Our findings not only provide guidance for deepening China’s IPO System Reform, but also provide a reference for other countries. The structure of this article is as follows: section 2 briefly reviews the attempts of SZSE in coordination with IPO System Reform; section 3 describes data and econometric methodology; section 4 explains empirical results, and section 5 makes a concluding remark. Attempts in Coordination with IPO System Reform in China On 25th May, 2012, three shares landed on Small-and-Medium Enterprise Board which commenced the implementation of new IPO rules. The new rules bring three changes: increasing the allotment for institutional investors in off-line offering; removing the requirement for three-month lock-up; allowing new shares acquired on the first trading day to freely float. In order to propel reform, new IPO rules are also absorbed into Management Measures for Securities Issuance and Underwriting amended in line with the China Securities Regulatory Commission Guidelines for Further Deepening IPO Reform (the Guidelines). In response to changes in new shares issuance management, SZSE releases three follow-up measures aimed at curbing first-day speculation, inducing rational pricing and maintaining orders during the first-day transaction of newly-listed shares. First, SZSE releases “Notice on further Optimizing the Temporary Trading Halt Mechanism for Newly-listed Shares during First-day Trading”, which highlights the role of the trading halt mechanisms. In order to curb newly listed shares speculation, SZSE released “First-day Temporary Trading Halt System for IPO Shares” on 8th March, 2012. Some positive results emerged after that. First-day closing prices of 45 IPOs listed on SZSE since then has risen only 21.82% on average, which is obviously lower than previous. In response to the public concerns over shortened trading time for hot IPO shares on their first trading day, SZSE reformulated the trading halt triggering criterion based on the percent of price volatility and turnover ratio. This adjustment is part of the consistent effort to explore and optimize the existing trading halt mechanism through sound appraisal and extensive public consultation. The Notice further refines the system. First, according to the measure, a new price volatility criterion of 20% above or below the opening price is set to be a trigger: (1) If price fluctuation during intraday trading reaches or exceeds 10% above or below the opening price for the first time, trading will be suspended for one hour and risk alert of possible speculation will be issued to investors. If price fluctuation during intraday trading reaches or exceeds 20% above or below the opening price for the first time, trading will be suspended until 2:57 Asian Journal of Finance & Accounting ISSN 1946-052X 2014, Vol. 6, No. 2 www.macrothink.org/ajfa 67 p.m., the time that closing auction begins; (2) If turnover rate reaches or exceeds 50% during intraday trading, trading will be suspended for one hour. Second, SZSE releases guidelines to enhance regulation over the trading of newly-listed shares. Guidelines for Monitoring Abnormal Trading Behaviors in Periods Immediately after Listing (draft) covers many new points: specifying explicit definitions of abnormal trading behaviors on first-day and subsequent trading; clarifying specific regulatory measures to enhance transparency of SZSE’s regulations and procedures; offering evaluation and corresponding monitoring standards for member firms’ performance in managing their clients’ behaviors in the transaction about newly-listed shares. Third, SZSE provides further guidance for investors rationally participating in IPOs and urges members to intensify the efforts of investor suitability management. By drawing on the experience of investor suitability management on the ChiNext market, SZSE emphasizes risk alerts and education and requires institution members to help raise their clients’ awareness of compliance during their participation in IPOs trading as well as further enhance self-regulatory mechanism. In general, two notable measures may significantly influence the first-day transaction. First, under the new scheme, transactions about newly-listed shares will be halted for one hour if the price volatility relative to the opening price by as much as 10% during its first trading day. Meanwhile, the status of trading halt until the last 3 minutes before closing will take effect if the price deviates over 20% from the opening price. Second, transactions will also be halted for one hour if the turnover ratio exceeds 50% on the first day. Obviously, the distinctive characteristic of temporal trading halt system is that it is a non-market intervention means. In the view of SZSE, it is necessary for an immature market even though not everyone believes so. However, numerous analysts insist that although being given high expectation the trading halt mechanism actually loosen the regulation about speculation due to the fact that speculators are able to manipulate trading with fewer funds under this mechanism. Thus, it is helpless for risk control. Data and Methodology Data We aim at quantifying the effect of temporary trading halt mechanism on the performance of first-day trading. Data about 51 newly-listed shares upon SZSE during 1st January, 2012 and 11th May, 2012 (including 19 shares issued before the implementation of temporary trading halt mechanism and 32 ones issued after that) have been selected for empirical research. We focus on this period for two reasons: the primary one is to keep other impact factors invariant as far as possible meanwhile eliminating the influence of market trends, thus 1st January, 2012 has been choose as the beginning; the other is that since the end of May 2012, IPO in Chinese domestic stock market has been paused temporarily waiting for further reform deepening. All data come from CSMAR database. In the process of policy effect assessment and comparative analysis, one of the most considerable issues is to figure out how the same share will perform during the first day of Asian Journal of Finance & Accounting ISSN 1946-052X 2014, Vol. 6, No. 2 www.macrothink.org/ajfa 68 trading without temporary trading halt mechanism? It involves the comparison between observational and potential outcomes. Except in the realm of science fiction, where parallel universes are sometimes imagined to be observable, it is impossible to measure causal effects at the individual level. In essence, causal inference is a missing value issue. We resort to Rubin Causal Inference Model and Matching Method. Rubin Causal Inference Model The Rubin causal model conceptualizes causal inference in terms of potential outcomes under treatment and control, only one of which is observed for each unit (Rubin 1990). A causal effect is defined as the difference between an observed outcome and its counterfactual. Let Yi1 denote the potential outcome for newly-listed share i if its first trading day is after the release of the Notice, and Yi0 denote the potential outcome for i if its opening transaction is before the release of the Notice. The treatment effect for i is defined by τi = Yi1 - Yi0. Causal inference is a missing data problem because Yi1 and Yi0 are never both observed. In principle, if assignment to treatment is randomized, causal inference is straightforward, while, in our observational setting, covariates are almost never balanced across treatment group, in which members are newly-listed after the release of the Notice and thus subject to the temporary trading halt mechanism, and control groups, in which shares are newly-listed before the release of the Notice and thus independent of its regulation, because they are not ordinarily drawn from the same population. Thus, a common quantity of interest is the average treatment effect for the treated (ATET): ( ) ( ) ( )1 01 1 1i i i iT E Y T E Y Tτ = = = − = (1) where Ti is a treatment indicator who equals to 1 when i is newly-listed after the release of the Notice and 0 otherwise. Equation 1 cannot be directly estimated because Yi0 is not observable for the treated. Thus, we assume that selection into treatment depends on observable covariates X. Following Rosenbaum and Rubin (1983), conditional on X, treatment assignment is unconfounded ({Y0, Y1⊥T}|X) and there is overlap: 0