Microsoft Word - 6464-23081-1-SM-writer2-new Asian Journal of Finance & Accounting ISSN 1946-052X 2015, Vol. 7, No. 1 www.macrothink.org/ajfa 76 Determinants of Value Creation of GCC Firms - An Application of PLS SEM Model Rajesh Kumar B Associate Professor, Finance Institute of Management Technology, Dubai Academic City Dubai, UAE E-mail: rajesh@imtdubai.ac.ae Received: Oct. 17, 2014 Accepted: Dec 30, 2014 Published:June 1, 2015 doi:10.5296/ajfa.v7i1.6464 URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.5296/ajfa.v7i1.6464 Abstract Value creation for a firm is a function of identifying and managing value drivers. This study aims to understand the drivers of value creation for GCC listed firms. The paper proposes a model for value creation through the application of Partial Least Square Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM).The model proposes value creation of a firm as a function of critical drivers like size of firm, dividend policy, investment policy, capital structure and risk characteristics. Higher the leverage for the firm, lesser will be the value creation for the firm. Investors are skeptical about whether firms with high leverage would create value. Firm size is negatively related to value creation. Keywords: Value Creation, PLS SEM, Path Diagram, Bootstrapping, Reflective Measurement models, Heterotrait-monotrait ratio, Blind Folding. Asian Journal of Finance & Accounting ISSN 1946-052X 2015, Vol. 7, No. 1 www.macrothink.org/ajfa 77 1. Introduction The determinants of value creation can be categorized in terms of growth, size, efficiency, capital structure and profitability drivers. Value creation for a firm is a function of identifying and managing value drivers which have the greatest impact on value creation. A focused approach would enable management to transform the goals of value creation into specific actions. Value driver analysis is an important tool in strategic planning analysis. Organizations which create long term value in terms of shareholder wealth are expected to create value for all stakeholders. From the perspective of economist’s value viewpoint, value is created when revenues exceed all costs. Value is created when management generates revenues over and above the economic costs incurred to generate revenues. The costs come from sources like employee wages and benefits, material, supplies, economic depreciation of physical assets, taxes and opportunity cost of capital. Shareholders expect management to generate value over and above the costs of resources consumed which includes the cost of using capital. Shareholders require an adequate level of return for the risk they take in. Stock prices reflect investors’ expectations about future cash flows. Wealth for shareholders will be created only if firms undertake investment decisions which have a positive net present value. Value creation is used in the perspective of value derived from accounting based information. Wealth creation is based on stock market information. Shareholders’ wealth maximization is theoretically logical and operationally feasible normative goal for guiding the financial decision making. From the shareholders’ point of view, the wealth created by a company through its actions is reflected in the market value of the company’s shares. Profitability and growth are basically considered as the major determinants of firm value. Corporate strategies can be assessed on the basis of their expected effect on profitability, growth and firm value. The value based planning models suggests that management of a firm aims to create shareholder wealth by maximizing market value of the equity thereby creating excess value over the book value of the firm. A firm’s management must focus on strategies that creates excess value attributed to market value (MV) compared to the book value (BV) of equity. A firm’s management creates value for shareholders if MV>BV, destroys value if MV VALUE CREATION -0.337 -0.310 2.195 0.029 DIVPO -> VALUE CREATION 0.060 0.058 0.371 0.711 FIRMSIZE -> VALUE CREATION -0.291 -0.257 1.166 0.244 GROWTH -> PROFITABILITY -0.530 -0.633 3.185 0.002 INVESTDECI -> GROWTH 0.187 0.245 1.194 0.233 PROFITABILITY -> VALUE CREATION 0.083 0.066 0.747 0.456 RISK -> VALUE CREATION 0.136 0.136 1.012 0.312 Capital structure variable of leverage is negatively related to value creation. The path coefficient is -0.337 for capital structure with statistical significance at 5% level of significance. Hence it can be assumed that higher the leverage for the firm, lesser will be the value creation for the firm. This result signifies that with respect to stock market valuation, investors are skeptical about whether firms with high leverage would create value. Firm size is negatively related to value creation. The path coefficient has a value of -0.291 but without statistical significance. Growth is negatively related to profitability with statistical significance. Investment decisions are positively related to growth. Hence firms which focus more on investment decisions like capital expenditures and working capital tend to create more value for the firm. Profitable firms tend to create more value for firms. Riskier the firm, higher the value creation. The results are not statistically significant. Table 13. R Square R Square GROWTH 0.035 PROFITABILITY 0.281 VALUE CREATION 0.250 R Square is a measure of the model’s predictive accuracy. It represents the amount of variance in the endogenous constructs explained by all of the exogenous constructs linked to it. The R Square value for value creation is 0.25. Thus all the exogenous variables accounts for 25 per cent of variation in the endogenous construct value creation. F Square measures the size effects. It assesses how strongly one exogenous construct contributes to explaining a certain endogenous construct in terms of R square. Growth to Profitability construct have strong effect and rest of the constructs has weak effects. Blindfolding is an iterative procedure in which different parts of data matrix are omitted. The estimates based on the reduced datasets are used to predict the omitted parts. The prediction error is used as an indicator of predictive relevance. Asian Journal of Finance & Accounting ISSN 1946-052X 2015, Vol. 7, No. 1 www.macrothink.org/ajfa 92 Table 14. Results of Blind Folding SSO SSE 1-SSE/SSO CAPITAL STRUCTURE 50 50 DIVPO 50 50 FIRMSIZE 50 50 GROWTH 50 50.186 -0.004 INVESTDECI 100 100 PROFITABILITY 100 91.426 0.086 RISK 50 50 VALUE CREATION 100 97.732 0.023 The q2 square value as given in the last column signify weak effect. 6. Conclusion This paper proposes a theoretical model for value creation. Value creation is analyzed through path diagram through PLS SEM algorithm. Value creation for a firm is a function of its capital structure, investment decisions, size, growth, profitability and risk measures. The study finds that leverage is inversely related to value creation.Investors are skeptical about whether firms with high leverage would create value. Firm size is negatively related to value creation. References Amihud, Y. (2002). Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects. Journal of Financial Markets, 5(1), 31-56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1386-4181(01)00024-6 Banz, R.W. (1981). The relationship between return and market value of common stocks. Journal of Financial Economics, 9, 3-18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(81)90018-0 Basu, S. (1983). The relationship between earnings yield, market value, and return for NYSE common stocks: Further evidence. Journal of Financial Economics, 12, 129-156. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(83)90031-4 Bhandari, & Laxmi, C. (1988). Debt/Equity ratio and expected common stock returns: Empirical evidence. Journal of Finance, 43, 507-528. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1988.tb03952.x Bhattacharya, S. (1979). Imperfect information, dividend policy and “the bird in the hand” fallacy. Bell Journal of Economics, 10, 259-270. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3003330 Black, F. (1972). Capital market equilibrium with restricted borrowing. Journal of Business, 45, 444-455. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/295472 Asian Journal of Finance & Accounting ISSN 1946-052X 2015, Vol. 7, No. 1 www.macrothink.org/ajfa 93 Boyer, M., & Didier, F. (2007). Common and fundamental factors in stock returns of Canadian oil and gas companies. Energy Economics, 29(3), 428-453. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2005.12.003 Caby, J., Clerc, G., & Koch, J. (1996). Strategic et finance: le processus de creation de vaieur. Revue Franpalse de Geslion, 108, 49-56. Chan, L. K., Yasushi, H., & Josef, L. (1991). Fundamentals and stock returns in Japan. Journal of Finance, 46, 1739-1789. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1991.tb04642.x DeBodinat,H.(1978). Strategie et polique financiere. La Revue Banque, 374,750-756. Retrieved from http://www.groupeiscae.ma/pdf/Listes des thèses et des mémoires/Les publications de l'ISCAE/REVUE GESTION ET SOCIETE/Revue G&S de n°1 au n°16/REVUE N°16.1990.pdf Degos,J.(1988). Evaluation des socieies el de lews litres. Vuibert. Retrieved from http://197.14.51.10:81/.../Petit%20br%C3%A9viaire%20des%20id%C3%A9es%20re%C3% A7ues%20en% Fama, E. F. (1976). Foundations of Finance. New York: Basic Books. Fama, E.,& French, K. (1995). Size and Book to Market factors in earnings and returns. The Journal of Finance, 50, 131-155. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1995.tb05169.x Fama, E., & French, R. (1992). The cross section of expected stock returns. The Journal of Finance, 47(2), 427-465. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1992.tb04398.x Fruhan. (1984). How fast should your company grow? Harvard Business Review, 62, 84-93. Retrieved from http://web.a.ebscohost.com/ehost/detail/detail?vid=17&sid=eaba2666-a83c-432a-925f-32c39 1b146b7%40sessionmgr4005&hid=4101&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZQ%3d%3d Gamba, A., & Triantis, A. (2008). The Value of financial flexibility. Journal of Finance, 63(5), 2263-2296. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2008.01397.x Hair J F, C M Ringle, and M Sarstedt (2011). PLS SEM.Indeed a Silver Bullet. Journal of Marketing, Theory & Practice, 19(2), 139-151. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.lrp.2012.09.008 Hair, J F, M Sarstedt, T Pieper, C M Ringle, J A Mena (2012), The Use of Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling in Strategic Management Research : A Review of Past Practices and Recommendations for Future Applications, Long Range Planning, 45(5/6),320-340. Hair, J F,, Tomas Hult, Christian M Ringle, & Marko Sarstedt. (2014). A Primer on Partial Least Squares, Structural Equation Modeling (PLS SEM).Thousand Oaks: Sage. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.lrp.2012.09.008 Hair, J. F. Sarstedt, M. Pieper, T. M. & Ringle, C. M. (2012). The use of partial least squares structural equation modeling in strategic management research: A review of past practices Asian Journal of Finance & Accounting ISSN 1946-052X 2015, Vol. 7, No. 1 www.macrothink.org/ajfa 94 and recommendations for future applications. Long Range Planning, 45, Issue 5/6, pp. 320-340 Hakansson, N. (1982). To pay or not to pay dividends? Journal of Finance, 37, 415-428. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2327345 Jacqueline, L., Garner, N., & Richard, O. (2002).Determinants of corporate growth opportunities of emerging firms. Journal of Economics and Business, 54, 73-93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0148-6195(01)00056-X James, M. (1973). Risk, return and equilibrium: Empirical tests. Journal of Political Economy, 81, 607-636. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/260061 Leland, H., & Pyle, D. (1977). Informational asymmetries, financial structure, and financial intermediation. Journal of Finance, 32, 371-388. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2326770 Lily, F., &Joel, P. (2009). Media coverage and cross section of stock returns. Journal of Finance, 64(5), 2023-2052. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2009.01493.x Michael, H., Duane, I., Michael, C., & Donald, S.(2001). Entrepreneurial strategies for wealth creation. Strategic Management Journal, 22, 479-491. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/smj.196 Miller, M.,& Modigliani, F. (1961).Dividend policy, growth and the valuation of shares. Journal of Business, 34, 1031-1051.http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/294442 Miller, M., & Rock, R. (1985). Dividend policy under asymmetric information. Journal of Finance, 40, 1031-1051. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1985.tb02362.x Miller, M.,& Scholes, M. (1978). Dividend and taxes. Journal of Political Economy, 90, 1118-1141. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/261114 Myers, S. C. (1977).Determinants of corporate borrowing. Journal of Financial Economics, 5, 147-176. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(77)90015-0 Pene, D. (1983). Modeles d'evaiuation des entreprises et modeles strategiques. Analyse Fmancierc, 54, 55-62. Penman, S. H. (1991). An evaluation of accounting rate of return. Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance, 6, 233-255. Retrieved from http://web.a.ebscohost.com/ehost/detail/detail?vid=86&sid=eaba2666-a83c-432a-925f-32c39 1b146b7%40sessionmgr4005&hid=4101&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZQ%3d%3d#db =bth&AN=7256368 Rappaport, A. (1986). Linking competitive strategy and shareholder value analysis. The Journal of Business Strategy, 3, 58-67. Retrieved from http://web.a.ebscohost.com/ehost/detail/detail?vid=56&sid=eaba2666-a83c-432a-925f-32c39 1b146b7%40sessionmgr4005&hid=4101&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZQ%3d%3d#db =bth&AN=5691789 Asian Journal of Finance & Accounting ISSN 1946-052X 2015, Vol. 7, No. 1 www.macrothink.org/ajfa 95 Rappaport, A. (1987). Corporate performance standards and shareholder value. The Journal of Business Strategy, 4, 28-38. Retrieved from http://web.a.ebscohost.com/ehost/detail/detail?vid=58&sid=eaba2666-a83c-432a-925f-32c39 1b146b7%40sessionmgr4005&hid=4101&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZQ%3d%3d#db =bth&AN=5689609 Ringle, C. Wende, S. & Will, A. (2005). SmartPLS, 2.0 (Beta), http://www.smartpls.de, Hamburg. Rosenberg, B., Kenneth, R.,& Ronald, L. (1985). Persuasive evidence of market inefficiency. Journal of Portfolio Management, 11, 9-17.http://dx.doi.org/10.3905/jpm.1985.409007 Ross, S. (1977). The determination of financial structure: the incentive signaling approach. Bell Journal of Economics, 8, 23-40. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3003485 Rozef, F. M. (1982). Growth, beta and agency costs as determinants of dividend payout ratios. Journal of Financial Research, 5, 249-259. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6803.1982.tb00299.x Samy, N., & Mohamed, G. (2002). The relationship between dividend policy, financial structure, profitability and firm value. Applied Financial Economics, 12, 843-849. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09603100110049457 Severine, C., Martin, H., & Dusan, I.(2004). The determinants of stock returns in a small open economy. International Review of Economics and Finance, 13(2), 167-185. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2003.07.001 Stattman, D. (1980). Book values and stock returns. The Chicago MBA: A Journal of Selected Papers, 4, 25-45. Varaiya, N. (1987). The relationship between growth, profitability and firm value. Strategic Management Journal, 8, 487-497. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/smj.4250080507