




































Asian Review of Environmental 

and Earth Sciences 
ISSN: 2313-8173 
Vol. 3, No. 1, 1-9, 2016 
http://www.asianonlinejournals.com/index.php/AREES 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1 

 

The Cop21 Agreement and Asian Economies 

 
Jan-Erik Lane1 

1
Institute of Public Policy in Belgrade, Geneva 

 
Abstract 

The global agreement on climate change – COP21 – will have immediate consequences upon the large 

emitters of greenhouse gases (GHG) in Asia. From 2018 there can be no increases of GHG:s and 

preferable some decreases. The unique global agreement speaks little about the economic consequences, 

but emissions and GDP are strongly linked through energy consumption. This article shows the situation 

for major economies in Asia with regard to the connection between GDP and GHG:s. It remains to be 

seen how the implementation of this global treaty will play out. Whether it has the force of public 

international law remains to be tested as well as whether all countries will ratify the treaty and abide by 

it. Several Asian countries have only 2 years to make major changes.     
 

Keywords: COP21-agreement, Climate change, Global coordination, Greenhouse gases emissions (GHG) – total versus per 

capita, Energy consumption, South Korea, China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Singapore, Japan, Super fund, Stern. 
 

Contents 
1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................................. 2 

2. The Global Scene ......................................................................................................................................................................... 2 

3. The Energy Link ......................................................................................................................................................................... 2 

4. Country Predicaments: Asia ...................................................................................................................................................... 3 

5. Strategies ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 7 

6. Compensation, Exemptions and a Giant Global Fund ............................................................................................................ 8 

7. Conclusion .................................................................................................................................................................................... 8 

References ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 9 

 
Citation | Jan-Erik Lane (2016). The Cop21 Agreement and Asian Economies. Asian Review of Environmental and Earth 

Sciences, 3(1): 1-9. 

DOI: 10.20448/journal.506/2016.3.1/506.1.1.9 

ISSN | 2313-8173 

 
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License 

Asian Online Journal Publishing Group 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
http://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.20448/journal.506/2016.3.1/506.1.1.9


Asian Review of Environmental and Earth Sciences, 2016, 3(1): 1-9 

 

 

 

 

2 

 

1. Introduction 
The governments of the states of the world have come up with the strategies to employ in the great global 

coordination meeting on climate change in Paris. They have been told by the “gurus” of globalization that time is 

short for avoiding a global disaster with long-term unavoidably dire consequences for mankind. The occurrence of 

anthropogenic or anthropomorphic global warming makes mankind enter a new evolutionary stage where the climate 

of Planet Earth is affected by the social systems of men and women, especially their economic activities (GDP), This 

in turn transforms the climate change problematic - +1.5, +2, +4, 6 or more – to a set of very difficult problems for 

the social sciences: Can really global coordination on emission reduction policies be made and also work? The 

literature on the implementation of policies teaches us that successful achievement of goals by efficient means is 

hard to accomplish, even on a local or national government level. With so many players involved in global state 

coordination, there is a clear and large risk of coordination failures in what is basically an ocean Prisoners’ dilemma 

game. And time is pressing, even though the COP21 framework speaks of a policy for the entire century. Already 

from 2018-20 must the increase in greenhouse gases (GHG) or CO2:s be halted in order to start decreasing to zero 

over the 21rst century. But policies reducing emissions are costly and may decrease economic development or 

growth in world with mass poverty. What policy measures will be employed in which countries? Administrative 

decisions closing down coal plants, installing filters on coal burning? Subsidising renewable energy sources- at what 

cost? Using market mechanisms like carbon tax or emission trading schemes? The social sciences will have lots to 

contribute to climate change policy-making, complementing the natural sciences. Energy, emissions and GDP go 

together. The standard projections for energy need speak of an almost doubling of energy consumption to meet 

economic growth predictions, but how can these projections become reality under the restrictions from the COP21 

Agreement?  

 

2. The Present Picture for Planet Earth 
Figure 1 presents the major existing trends in population, emissions and GDP globallyup to now. There has taken 

place a considerable of not huge augmentation in global population, total emission of greenhouse gases and total 

economic output – GDP – from 1990 until today. What impacts most upon total GHG emissions is the general life 

style, measured by levels of GDP, but population growth of sourse leads to more of GHG emissions. 

 

 
Figure-1. Planet Earth: Population, GDP and Emission 1990 

Source: GHC: World Resources Institute, GDP: World Bank, Population: United Nations Population Division 

 

From Figure 1 appears the augmentation yearly in GHG emissions since 1990, amounting to some 50 trillion 

kilos. Generally speaking, in 2012 the following equations hold: GHG emissions = 8300*population; R2=0.87; life 

style as measured by the GDP is a major contributor: GHG emissions = 0.58*GDP; R2=0.53. In September 2015, the 

UN agreed upon 17 Global Goals to achieve:  end extreme poverty, fight inequality and injustice as well as halt 

climate change. Yet, it is feared by the markets, governments and global business commentators that the GDP curve 

could start declining, as with China today where minor adjustments in GDP growth results in global financial market 

crises. Economic growth would deliver the resources with which to reduce poverty. Can really these three new UN 

developmental objectives be achieved or could they conflict? Economist Jeffrey Sachs, however, states that really 

halting GHG emissions growth rapidly would require a large reduction in global economic output. Can governments 

in developing countries like e.g. China, India and Indonesia conduct an effective global ecology policy with strong 

measures that halt GHG emissions growth as well as reduce them, but at the same time allow for continued economic 

growth? This would be a high priority from the point of view of environmental economics, betting upon renewable 

energy. If, on the other hand, reductions in emissions come with a large cost, one must ask the Stern (2007) question: 

who is going to pay for correcting externalities? The cost problematic of GHG reductions is related to energy.  

 

3. The Energy Link 
CO2 emission s and all the greenhouse gases (GHG) are strongly linked with energy consumption in a broad 

sense, covering not only fuel, electricity but also transportation, food production and construction industry. Without 

additional energy, economic development would be considerably lower or may even come to a halt. Figure 2 shows 

this close link. 

 



Asian Review of Environmental and Earth Sciences, 2016, 3(1): 1-9 

 

 

 

 

3 

 

 
Figure-2.  Energy and GHC emissions 2012. Equation: y=1.05x, R2=0.941 

Source: GHC: World Resources Institute, Energy: International Energy Agency Statistics 

 

Figure 2 depicts the link between energy and emissions at the macro level, meaning that energy consumption or 

energy production could in small projects be carbon neutral, as demonstrated in several micro level projects. The 

problem is that generally speaking economic development is highly energy consuming, which in turn is polluting, as 

mostly fossil fuels. Globally speaking it holds that higher levels of energy consumption are conducive to more GHG 

emissions. Here, we have the global conundrum for the 21rst century: How to reduce GHG emissions without 

reducing economic development or economic growth that needs, it is true, more of energy consumption, or are really 

the three major objectives of the UN above internally consistent?? Look at Figure 3 that contains the global picture of 

energy consumption today and the great part that goes to Asian countries. It shows how large Asia (East, South East 

and South Asia) is in global energy consumption. The COP21 agreement will force Asian economies to start 

decarbonising and increase energy efficiency much. Figure 3 projects that Asian economies could suffer from lower 

energy consumption growth rates. Still, Asian economies must go find additional energy and new sources of energy. 

 

 
Figure-3. Resource consumption by various parts of the world 

               Source: BP: Energy outlook 2015 
 

 

In Appendix 1 we show energy consumption projections up to 2030, which can be found with several agencies or 

energy companies, where no reduction in energy consumption is actually predicted. Moreover, the fossil fuels will 

increase their role as provider of energy, whereas the predicted augmentation for renewables is a tiny increase in 

comparison.  

The energy-emission dilemma is as follows: Either – horn I - energy consumption is decreased, especially of the 

fossil fuels and particularly carbon, or – horn II - the global economy manages to stage a rapid technology innovation 

on a huge scale, introducing massively carbon neutral energy. However, neither is likely, as economic development 

trumps environmental sustainability in general. Figure 4 shows how large Asia (East, South East and South Asia) is 

in global energy consumption. The COP21 agreement will force Asian economies to start decarbonising and increase 

energy efficiency much as well as innovate on a greater scale. Let us look more closely at a few countries and how 

they face the energy-emissions-GDP dilemma. 

 

4. Asia 
The relationship between economic growth and emissions growth can only be one of increase in both, as Asia 

has become « l'usine du monde ». Although the countries in this region has had their so-called « take off » time 

points in different years after the Second World War, in general one finds heavy emissions of greenhouse gases in 

this growth region: ASEAN plus 3. Consequently, the populous Asian nations will be critical in the elaboration of 

any global ecology policy concerning not only climate change but also in general ecological sustainability. 

 

South Korea 

This country has in an astonishing speed become one of the most technologically advanced countries in the 

world. However, its emission of GHG:s is huge, following its GD growth rates (Figure 4). 

 



Asian Review of Environmental and Earth Sciences, 2016, 3(1): 1-9 

 

 

 

 

4 

 

 
Figure-4. South Korea: Equation: y = 0.693783x + 7.98; R2 = 0.97 

                                     Source: GHC: World Resources Institute, GDP: World Bank 

 

The clear link between the two curves in Figure 4 comes as no surprise, confirming the general observations 

above for Planet Earth. 

 

Turkey 

Turkey has become a most important country, politically and economically in the Asia Minor thanks to a rapid 

economic development of a country with huge population. Figure 5 supports this picture of Turkey as no longer a 

developing country but as a developed nation and member of the OECD. 

Typical of the Turkish scene is the combination of strong economic development with heavy emissions 

augmentations. Since the economic world organisations – the WB and IMF – wish to have more of economic growth 

and look upon Turkey as a growth engine, one must ask whether emissions growth really can be halted in this 

economic super power. 

 

 
Figure-5. Turkey: Equation: Y = 0,7837x; R² = 0,972 

Sources: GHC: World Resources Institute, GDP: World Bank 

  

Turkey has a huge influence in the new nations in Asia, replacing the Soviet republics, as they have considerable 

Turkish speaking populations. Often their trade is going through Istanbul. 

 

China  

Mainland China is now ranked as the largest GHG polluter in the world, when we look at aggregate totals, 

although not so when emissions per capita are examined. It has « dethroned » the US recently with India rapidly 

moving upwards too. Relating GHG emissions to population size, China used to a rather small per capita emission, 

given its enormous population. But the per capita figure has  gone up for China, although it is far from the top in the 

world. Actually, the per capita figure for Qatar (44) is much higher than that of China (6.7) 

(http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC). Now, look at Figure 6. 

 

 
Figure-6. China: Equation: Y = 0,5736x; R² = 0,9578 

Sources: GHC: World Resources Institute, GDP: World Bank 

 

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC


Asian Review of Environmental and Earth Sciences, 2016, 3(1): 1-9 

 

 

 

 

5 

 

Chinese economic development has been driven by massively using resources – mostly coal, gas and iron from 

Australia - that emit much greenhouse gases, like fossil fuels and cement. Especially, China operates a large number 

of coal-fired power stations – often without filters - in order to generate electricity. Thus, coal-fired power stations in 

the millions often lack anti-pollution filters, hurt environment quality for ordinary citizens daily. In addition, China 

now has the largest and fastest growing car market in the world, burning oil and gas. 

Chinese ecology policy has hardly been given much thought or high priority until lately by government or been 

seriously developed by officials and bureaux. Its leaders talk much about « green values », actually more and more 

every day, but concrete measures are often lacking. The promise of halting CO2 emissions in relation to economic 

growth after 2018=2020 is perhaps a meaningless posture, as economic growth still will power ahead, although not 

as the same pace as between 1990-2010. A relative target will not do, as it is the absolute totals that must be 

decreased. The 2030 promise to effectively reduce GHG:s can be reneged upon. And the time table is for such 

relative reductions is too late for global policy-making to be effective in halting climate change. 

The Chinese picture above may be compared with outcomes for a few other major developing countries in order 

to arrive at a comprehensively true global picture. Generally speaking, the higher the total affluence of a country, the 

more this nation emits and the larger the population, the more of GHG:s. Thus, one would expect to find lower total 

levels for small developing countries. How about a giant like India, predicted to overtake China in the size of 

population and eagerly pushing for economic growth around 6-7 per cent? 

 

India 

Except recently, ecological policy-making has bowed to the overarching preference in India, namely rapid 

economic development, driven by energy consumption like coal and oil. India also has a rapidly expanding car 

market, which besides the huge number of highly polluting scooters creates sometimes breathing problems in its 

mega-cities (Figure 7). 

 

 
Figure-7. India: Equation: Y = 0,6093x + 4,7605; R² = 0,9954 

Sources: GHC: World Resources Institute, United Nations Framework on Climate Change GHG 
inventory submissions, GDP: World BankSource  

 

Figure 7 indicates no halting or decrease of emissions growth at all for this true giant nation. The government of 

India has an outspoken preference for economic growth > 5 per cent no matter what, which is considered necessary 

for lifting millions out of abject poverty. Thus, India favours the employment of cheap energy line coal for electricity 

production – 300 million lacking that. Cutting emissions would entail reducing economic growth rates – so the 

argument goes at least. 

The preoccupation of the Indian government and several economists, dreaming about the great « catch-up » with 

China and the West, is to negotiate exceptions for India, if a global ecology policy is enacted. Redistribution looms 

large in India's strategy, arguing that affluent countries should cut back the most or help financing advanced 

technology in poor nations. 

 

Indonesia 

Developing countries have in general one over-arching priority, namely to « catch-up » with developed countries. 

The catch-up strategy uses lots of cheap energy to raise economic output fast. Energy consumption tends to result in 

GHG emissions, except for wind, hydro and nuclear power. So far most developing countries have opted for rapid 

economic growth, at the expense of environmental concerns. Thus, we expect to find considerable increases below 

for GHG:s, looking at a dynamic developing country that is finally « taking off », namely giant Indonesia (Figure 8). 

 



Asian Review of Environmental and Earth Sciences, 2016, 3(1): 1-9 

 

 

 

 

6 

 

 
Figure-8. Indonesia : Equation : y = 0,6554x + 9,8515; R² = 0,9267 

Sources: GHC: World Resources Institute, GDP: World Bank Source: 

 

The upward trend for GHC emissions in Indonisia reflects closely its economic growth rates. Given its huge 

population, this country is a major polluter, including the haze from Kalimantan, or Indonisan Borneo. Indonesia has 

drawn one correct conclusion, namely building a giant wall protection for its capital, Jakarta, against future sea level 

rise 

 

Pakistan 

Consider then Pakistan (Figure 9) - another giant nation in South Asia ! It has already lost land to sea level rise. 

 

 
Figure-9. Pakistan: Equation: y = 0,8948x; R² = 0,9989  

Sources: GHC: World Resources Institute, GDP: World BankSource: 

 

The trend is the same for this huge developing country as for already developed South Korea, i.e. GHC 

emissions up and following economic developetment. How to halte missions and still maintain economic growth in 

this poor nation ? 

 

Singapore 

Singapore – its politcal leaders, public officials as well as the scholars at universities and colleges speak much 

about the climate change predicament. Thus, the city-state mentions a lot of activities and programs aimed at 

reducing carbon emissions and the outflow of other greenhouse pollutants. Singapore is assertive about its aim to be 

an ecology model for the future, betting much now upon the use of renewables. Yet, let us look at the facts in Figure 

10. 

 

 
 

Figure-10. Singapore: Equation:y = 0.34056 + 15.91 ; R2 = 0.85 
Source: GHC: World Resources Institute, GDP: World Bank 

 



Asian Review of Environmental and Earth Sciences, 2016, 3(1): 1-9 

 

 

 

 

7 

 

The city-state is extremely affluent, meaning that it employs massive amounts of energy to run a huge airport, a 

world harbour and an omnipresent use of air-conditioners everywhere, consuming electricity and emitting GHC:s. In 

addition, it cleans its waste water up to 100 per cent, which requires lots of energy. It burns massive amounts of oil 

and gas for its electricity generation. 

 

Japan 
Japan will no longer rely much upon nuclear power, having one power plant is use today. Its emissions have gone 

done recently, but seem to be on the rise again due to use of fossil fuel increasingly again (Figure 11). 

:  

 
Figure-11. Japan:   LN (GHG / Kg CO2 eq and LN (GDP / Constant Value 2005 USD); Japan: 

Equa.: 0,0828x; R² = 0,1729 
 Sources: GHC: World Resources Institute, United Nations Framework on Climate Change GHG inventory 
submissions, GDP: World Bank 

 

The decrease in emissions for Japan reflects the country’s post-industrial developments. Production 

sites have been moved out of Japan with heavy investments in other Asian countries as well as the EU and 

the US. But the loss of energy from some of its nuclear power stations poses a great problem for the 

country – what to use instead along with the COP21 requirement of decarbonisation?  
 

5. Strategies 
Developing countries all display increasing emissions of GHC, as they employ lots of energy to close the GAP to 

the developed world. When faced with a demand for reductions of emissions from the developed nations, developing 

countries may respond with the following strategies: 

a) Counter demand for cuts by countries with high emissions per capita; 

b) Demands for financial assistance to help make the energy transition; 

c) Acceptance of a halt to emissions growth but no reductions until 2050. 

 

5.1. Total Emissions or Emissions per Person 
How is the necessary reduction in GHG emissions to be distributed onto the countries in the world? The policy 

relevant question is: the same percentage figure for all, or more by the rich countries and less by the poor? The 

confusing fact is that total emissions and emissions per capita do not at all coincide – see Figure 12. 

 

 
Figure-12. Total emissions and per capita emission; Equation: Y = 0,2116x + 3,267; R² = 0,17 

                  Source: World Resources Institute, GDP: World Bank, Population: United Nations Population Division 
 

 

Figure 10 shows that all possibilities exist: big total emission and low per capita emissions, small total emissions 

and high per capita emissions, etc. Which country is to cut back emissions the most? 

Some developing countries have huge total emissions, but they may argue that rich countries with high per 

capita emissions should make most reductions. It is true that per capita emissions follow the affluence of a country, 

i.e. GDP per capita – see Figure 13. 



Asian Review of Environmental and Earth Sciences, 2016, 3(1): 1-9 

 

 

 

 

8 

 

 
Figure-13. GDP per capita and GHG per capita; Equation: Y = 0,5496x + 3,8985; R² = 0,6537 

Source: World Resources Institute, GDP: World Bank, Population: United Nations Population Division 

 

Thus, poor countries could claim that rich countries with high per capita emissions to the right in Figure 9 can 

not only afford the reductions, but that this redistribution would also be fair. The problem is only that several 

countries with high per capita emissions have tiny populations. The biggest countries in the world – the G20 – are 

responsible for almost 80 per cent of all GHG emissions! From a global point of view concerning emission 

efficiency, decreases by the huge emitters make most sense, like China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Nigeria, South 

Africa, the US and Canada as well as large EU countries. How about the UN ambition to maximise both objectives: 

economic development and ecological sustainability, with the basic notion of country fairness? 

 

6. Fairness, Compensation and the Global Ecology Fund 
Already economist Stern [1] argued that reducing emissions would be extremely costly, either lowering 

economic growth or requiring enormous new investments. To overcome this objection, he launched the idea of a 

global fund to transfer money from the rich to the poor countries as well as accepting a moratorium for certain 

developing nations. 

The proposal of a huge global redistribution is within the COP21 Agreement. The suggestion from the Kyoto 

Agreement that some countries could be excluded from a reduction scheme for some time period now seems 

unacceptable: when some cut, other could expand – the perfect PD game! 

Given the economic stagnation in the OECD world, the idea of a super fund also appears unrealistic. One could 

ask, and the US Congress will do so on the ratification of COP21: why should the US pay to China to lower its 

emissions, when it is in the interest of China itself to do so? 

 

7. Conclusion 
Climate change has become the major problem in international political economy. But is it likely that global 

coordination will work according to the COP21 Treaty? Each country now has to develop a realistic strategy to cope 

with the consequences of climate change – resilience. Climate change is driven by both population growth and more 

and more energy consumption for economic development or growth. The universal call for economic growth has so 

far trumped any efforts at holding back GDP, because the life style of freedom from poverty drives people. Themost 

realistic hope is that major technological breakthroughs will be forthcoming in time allowing for carbon neutral 

energy. It exists already such know-how but its scale is too small. 

In standard energy projections up to 2030 (see Appendix), Planet Earth will continue to rely heavily upon the 

fossil fuels, which results no doubt in more of GHG:s! For the huge Asian countries, it is vital to embark on both 

decarbonisation – close the coal fired power stations - and innovation in energy with massive new technologies for 

renewable energy sources and much better filters for the use of fossil fuels. Economic development will depend more 

and more upon energy efficiency – see Figure 14. 

 

 
Figure-14. Energy and GDP 

            Source: Growth in world energy consumption (based on BP data) and growth in world real GDP 
 

 



Asian Review of Environmental and Earth Sciences, 2016, 3(1): 1-9 

 

 

 

 

9 

 

The COP21 agreement makes it imperative for Asian economies to develop advanced energy plans, finding new 

sources but also employing the existing ones more efficiently! 

 

Sources 

International Energy Agency Statistics  

United Nations Framework on Climate Change GHG inventory submissions 

GHG: World Resources Institute (Washington, DC) 

GDP: World Bank (Washington, DC) 

Population: (1) United Nations Population Division. World Population 

Prospects, (2) United Nations Statistical Division. Population and Vital 

Statistics Report (various years), (3) Census reports and other 

statistical publications from national statistical offices, (4) 

Eurostat: Demographic Statistics, (5) Secretariat of the Pacific 

Community: Statistics and Demography Programme, and (6) U.S. Census 

Bureau: International Database. 

BP Energy Outlook 2015. 

 

Appendix 1. Energy consumption projections 

 

 
Appendix-1. Energy predictions – 2030 

           Source: Global Total Primary Energy Consumption by fuel, www.eea.europa.eu911 2008. 

 

References 
[1] N. Stern, The economics of climate change: The stern review. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
Views and opinions expressed in this article are the views and opinions of the authors, Asian Review of Environmental and Earth Sciences shall not be 

responsible or answerable for any loss, damage or liability etc. caused in relation to/arising out of the use of the content. 
 


