




































 
 

 

1 
© 2020 by the authors; licensee Asian Online Journal Publishing Group 
 

Asian Review of Environmental and Earth Sciences 
Vol. 7, No. 1, 1-8, 2020 

ISSN(E) 2313-8173/ ISSN(P) 2518-0134 
DOI: 10.20448/journal.506.2020.71.1.8 

© 2020 by the authors; licensee Asian Online Journal Publishing Group 

   
 

 

 
 
 
Predictors of Seasonal Flood Control in Owode Yewa, Ogun State, Nigeria 

 
Ojo Oladimeji Olusola1 
Adejugbagbe John Adewale2 

 

 
( Corresponding Author) 

 
1Urban and Regional Planning Department, Federal Polytechnic Ilaro, Ogun State, Nigeria. 

 
2Architecture Department, Federal Polytechnic Ilaro, Ogun State, Nigeria. 

 

 
Abstract 

The increasing challenges of seasonal flood pose serious threat to lives and properties of citizens. 
This is a major concern for residents in an uncontrolled environment like Owode town in Ogun 
State. The current study examined a linkage between land use planning and flood control in 
Owode town. Utilizing a systematic sampling technique, a structured questionnaire was 
administered to 191 household heads in the study area. The data was analysed with logit 
Regression model and Marginal Effects at 5% level of significance. The result points out the 
significance of good road network (Beta= 0.056; p = 0.008) better drainage system (Beta= 0.024; p 
= 0.000), planned environment (Beta= 0.023; p = 0.000), and public awareness (Beta= 0.016; p = 
0.011) as land use planning measures to completely stop flood occurrences in Owode town. Thus, 
an integration of these measures can sustainably reduce flood risk in flood prone towns like 
Owode. The study therefore recommends the need for government to re-evaluate its 
environmental policies to control both human activities and natural habitats. 

 
Keywords: Land use, Flood, Planning, Predictors, Seasonal and land use. 

 
Citation | Ojo Oladimeji Olusola; Adejugbagbe John Adewale 
(2020). Predictors of Seasonal Flood Control in Owode Yewa, Ogun 
State, Nigeria. Asian Review of Environmental and Earth Sciences, 
7(1): 1-8. 
History:  
Received: 10 September 2019 
Revised: 14 October 2019 
Accepted: 17 December 2019 
Published: 8 January 2020 
Licensed: This work is licensed under a Creative Commons 

Attribution 3.0 License  
Publisher:  Asian Online Journal Publishing Group 
 

Acknowledgement: Both authors contributed to the conception and design of 
the study. 
Funding: This study received no specific financial support. 
Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no conflict of 
interests. 
Transparency: The authors confirm that the manuscript is an honest, 
accurate, and transparent account of the study was reported; that no vital 
features of the study have been omitted; and that any discrepancies from the 
study as planned have been explained. 
Ethical: This study follows all ethical practices during writing.   

 

 

Contents 
1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 2 
2. Literature Review and Conceptual Framework ............................................................................................................................ 2 
3. Theoretical Framework of the Study .............................................................................................................................................. 3 
4. Conclusion and Recommendations .................................................................................................................................................. 6 
References ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 7 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Contribution of this paper to the literature:  
This study serves as a guiding instrument on how to provide the necessary facilities lacking in 
the study area in order to mitigate seasonal flooding in the study area. 

 

1. Introduction 
Human activities demand a place to be accomplished and there is limit to existing land. Shortage of suitable 

space for development encourages building or construction on unauthorized land which include reserved land. 
Land use planning is not based on land classification alone but the comprehensive decision on the interrelationship 
of different activities [1]. ‘Land use planning refers to the process by which land is allocated between competing 
and sometimes conflicting uses in order to secure the rational and orderly development of land in an 
environmentally sound manner to ensure the creation of sustainable human settlements’ [2]. Planning for land use 
is a proactive approach in maintaining sustainable neighbourhood characteristics. Land use planning acts as an 
agent in the prevention of land use conflicts. The decisions on land use location relate to the socio-economic 
consideration rather than physical characteristics and neighbourhood quality. 

The influence of human being on earth cannot be over emphasized.  Human settlement is changing regularly 
due to daily activities and urban planning need to observe urbanization as a tool for development rather than a 
problem [3]. Therefore, it requires sustainable strategy to address urban issues including flooding that causes 
environmental deterioration. Flood have negative impact on physical environment and socio- economic activities 
[4]. The seasonal flooding experienced in the study area keeps on increasing with destruction of available roads 
and valuable properties. Therefore, the study aimed to examine land use planning as an instrumental tool for flood 
reduction and management in Owode area of Ogun State in order to provide sustainable solutions to seasonal 
flooding in the area. The objectives are to examine the physical patterns of the areas, level of compliance of physical 
structures with existing regulations, and availability of flood control and management infrastructure in the study 
area. 
 

2. Literature Review and Conceptual Framework 
The literature review covered causes of flooding, land use planning and integrate non-structural model, 

flooding as a natural hazard need to be examined with various means. Land use planning as a tool for positioning 
structure according to uses allow neighbourhood to know areas with ecological problems. 
 

2.1. Causes of flood in Neighbourhoods 
There are various causes of flooding in an area. Ajibola, et al. [5] posited that areas with engineering drainage 

construction, settlement with a high concentration of housing and population are liable to climate change which is 
one of the causes of floods. Spaliviero, et al. [6] identified topography and landforms in Limpopo river basin as 
main causes of the flood in the region. Adetunji and Oyeleye [7] investigated causes and effects of floods in Apete, 
Ibadan. Their findings show that poor waste management and construction along water channels contributed to 
the floods. Lamond, et al. [8] studied the role of solid waste management in urban area as found that, population 
increase and inefficient management of waste in urban areas result to flooding.  

Unplanned settlement and slopes contribute to floods [9]. Haphazard construction of homes has 
blocked several natural water ways lead to frequent floods throughout the rainy seasons notably within the months 
of March, April and May of each year [10]. Human activities have been the contributor to the level of floods [11]. 
Therefore, adequate land use is required for sustainable physical planning. Katchova [12] Identified causes of flood 
in Anambra state to include unplanned environments, poor drainage systems, high population, nonchalant attitude 
of government and changes in climate. Ali and Sulaiman [10] concluded that, due to the non-existence 
of drainage systems, storm water creates huge puddles that become breeding places for 
mosquitoes that causes malaria in Informal Settlements of Zanzibar. 

Kwari, et al. [13] opined that weakness in environmental impact assessment (EIA) report maps in flood prone 
areas and attitude of both inhabitants and government in response to flood risk increases the occurrence.  
 

2.2. Effects of Flooding 
The effects of floods on the economy of an area manifest on a decline on the farming productivity that can lead 

to poverty Pauw and Thurlow [14]. Ebuzoeme [15] examined the effect of flood on six communities in Awka and 
found the effect of flooding on them to include building damage, road congestion, and deterioration of the 
environment, high poverty level and negative impact on wellbeing of inhabitants. In Zimbabwe, 246 persons were 
killed. Road, crops and livestock were destroyed by flooding Gharagozlou, et al. [16]. Etuonovbe [17] examined 
the devastating effects of flood on the border between Ogun and Lagos States and Northern part of the country. 
The study concluded that there must be synergy between the actors in built environment in order to mitigate the 
consequences of flooding in the study area.  

The consequences of flooding manifested in both social and economic activities of inhabitants [18] and Kwari. 
The damage posed by flood in Pakistan affect mostly mud buildings due to the weak foundation and unprocessed 
material [19]. Economically it is very hard to quantify the damage of flooding [20]. The social impact is attributed 
to the trauma experienced as a result of the incidents and aftermath. Dewan [21] concluded that traditional 
knowledge and indigenous practices should be included to reduce socio-economic impact.  
 
2.3. Land Use Planning 

Proactive measures to scale back the threat of disaster have to be compelled to be an integral facet of 
urban planning [22]. Local Town Planning Authorities and local governments have various planning tools to 
control and preserve a settlement from disasters. The land use planning is to ensure desirable standard in use of 
land to prevent or minimize flooding. Land use planning is the coordination of different land uses, commercial, 
residential, public use, circulation, agricultural uses in a settlement. Recently, consideration for land use in an 
urban centre is based on economic values rather than environment consideration. The demand for commercial and 



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social space raise concerns on the impact on changes in the existing land use. Inadequate knowledge in the 
implementation and content of comprehensive land use plan is a short fall in physical planning [23]. Flood control 
and management are crucial issue that needs the cooperation of their scientist in relevant fields [24]. 

Abolade, et al. [25] concluded that road improvement, and availability of fund and equipment are germane to 
flood control in both rural and urban areas.  Hula and Udoh [26] identified engineering and sufficient drainage 
system as a basic requirement for effective discharge of flood water. The sustainable solution to flood risk is to 
integrate existing population into flood management team to improve required data and land enlighten the public 
[27]. 

Flood control is very difficult in low land areas with dense population, adequate zoning techniques is very 
important [28].   The authors further described flood situation in Brazil as noncompliance with master plan of 
cities that led to unplanned environment. The provision of land use map in flood prone areas provides a 
decent example of risk reduction issues into mainstream urban planning [29]. The demand for food, water and 
energy will increase pressure on existing land use and environmental pollution [30]. Reasons for an 
absence of enforcement might be corruption, lack of political will for enactment or a weak legislature. But for most 
of the growing variety of urban poor who, by definition, live illicitly, building rules and regulations could be a non-
issue [29]. 

Moreover, Luo, et al. [31] reviewed flood disaster in China and Japan, findings indicate that multi-purpose 
flood management policies in both countries were similar and construction of dams for flood control and public 
awareness in risk of flooding.  Adelekan [32]; Tang, et al. [33] concluded that there is a need for upgrading and 
new management strategies in the meteorological forecast and proper analysis of flood warnings and public 
awareness. Nchito [34] opined that consideration of the local situation in flood policy can influence or improve 
both national and regional objectives in improving situations. The crucial issue to be self-addressed is that 
the extent to which government would formulate development policies which will have a precise impact on trends 
of urban growth Ali and Sulaiman [10]. Correia, et al. [35] studied flood risks in unplanned settlements in Lusaka 
and the findings revealed that occupants mostly were not aware of the danger awaiting them due to the low price 
of land.  

Globalization and urbanization increase human activities. Demand for land for other uses increases the 
pressure on available land. The land is fixed in nature but population keeps on increasing. Therefore, the alteration 
on the existing land encourages environmental degradation and flood risk. Land use planning serves as an 
important tool in flood reduction, it involves adequate separation of uses. 
 

3. Theoretical Framework of the Study 
This study is underpinned by integrated non-Structural Model (ISM), a component of Flood Risk Management 

Model (FRM). The model which was developed by Idris and Dharmasiri [36] stresses the magnitude of land use 
planning, flood warning systems, evacuation, preparedness and insurance as options available at the individual, 
institutional and government level for flood control. It has been recognized as an alternative to traditional 
structural model. According to Smith and Bugni [37] structural flood control alone cannot solve the flood risk and 
hazard problems because flood control measures have been usually planned in isolation from other development. 
Hence, unlike non-structural model, structural flood model is perceived as reactive rather than proactive. 

 The proponents like [38] debated that flood control measures should be integrated and aligned with non-
structural methods, like land use planning to produce a more comprehensive flood management. In the main, the 
focus will shift from post-disaster response and relief centric approach to pre-disaster proactive preparedness and 
mitigation centric approach focusing on disasters as direct concern and a common understanding of the concept of 
vulnerability as important for developing a central notion [37]. Thus, adapted land use and spatial planning in 
flood-prone areas guarantees achievement of most efficient and sustainable reduction of flood risks. This will 
reduce potential damage (vulnerability) by flood in these areas.  

The conceptual framework for the study in Figure 1 describes relationship between all variables that contribute 
to the challenges faced in areas experiencing flooding, it was derived from literature reviewed. Heavy rainfall and 
climate change serves as a major factor, recently, climate change determines situation because it comes with 
changes in weather condition and due to increase in modern technology and economic activities, there is expansion 
of land for industrial activities that prompt population increase globally. Therefore, these activities have negative 
impact on the atmosphere and land degradation, and pollution that affect every ramification of human existence. 
Also, land use conversion from the original use mostly does not comply with existing regulations.   

Presently in Owode town, there is an increase in commercial activities and physical expansion. People are 
moving from parts of the state and neighbouring country like the Republic of Benin to Badagry and Lagos through 
Sango Ota and other parts of Ogun State. The attributes of the town encourage the influx of people with demand 
for housing and other activities for sustainability. These contribute to unplanned environments usually evident in 
border towns. 
 

 
Figure-1. Conceptual framework for the study. 



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3.1. Research Method 
Following Integrated Non-Structural Flood Risk Management Model, a Logit model of binary regression was 

developed. The choice of the model is informed by the nature of the indicator variable and largely by the data 
involved. 
Mathematically, the model may be written as; 
Flood Control = f (Land use Planning) 

FLC = f (LAP)                                                              (1) 
where; 
FLC = Flood Control; and LAP = Land use Planning 
LAP is measured by; RON = Road Network; DRA = Drainage System; PLA = Planned Environment; LAM = Land use 
Map; and PUB = Public Awareness 
In other words, Equation 1 becomes; 

FLC = f (RON+ DRA + PLA + LAM+ PUB)                 (2) 
By calibrating Equation 2 into logit model, the study arrived at; 

Pr (Flood Control = 1|Xi) = f (Xi´βi´)                           (3) 
where; Xi = vector of explanatory variables 

 βi = vector of coefficients of Xi 
Therefore, Equation 3 transforms into; 

ln (
   

     
)    =   ᾱ + βi (Xi) + Ԑ      ( Cameron and Trivedi, 2009)  (4) 

where; ln = log; ᾱ = intercept; Ԑ = disturbance term 
By expansion, we have; 

ln (
   

     
)    =   ᾱ + β1RON+ β2DRA + β3PLA + β4 LAM + β5PUB + Ԑ         (5) 

The computation of marginal effects is expedient because the coefficients of (5) do not lend itself to a simple 
interpretation [22, 24]. 

  

 (  )
    =   ˄(X’β)⌈    (   ⌉    

    

(    
  )  

     (Katchova, 2013; 29:3)                  (6) 

Where; 
  

 (  )
                               ; ˄ = cumulative difference function; βj = beta coefficients of predictors; 

and e = exponential. 
A priori expectation is expressed as β1 – β5 ˃ 0. This implies that the study expects positive relationship between 

dependent variable and the predictors. Lastly, all analyses are conducted at 5% level of significance.  
Owode Yewa is a town situated in Yewa South Local Government of Ogun State, Nigeria. From the findings of 

the study, the town is dominated by artisans and traders as economic actors. One of the reasons for this 
concentration is closeness of the town to neighbouring international border towns. However, no information is 
specifically available on the total population of the residents in this town. Even information on population census 
by National Population Commission [39] is only available at local government level. In spite of this, the researcher 
ensured that the current research duly followed scientific processes in arriving at a representative sample. A basic 
assumption of this paper is that the experience on flood occurrence in the study area can only be provided by those 
who have stayed long in the town. Thus, only household heads were considered as the respondents in the study 
area. To get a working figure of household heads in the study area, the researcher visited each community and had 
joint consultation with the Community Development Associations (CDAs) during which residents were 
familiarised with the objectives of the study and solicit for their cooperation. Only CDAs registered by Yewa South 
Local government in Owode Yewa Township were considered in the study. A total of 18 such CDAs were 
identified and visited. At each of the consultation exercise, the total number of household heads in each of the 
community was obtained from the chairmen of the associations. This was made possible through the membership 
register maintained by each CDA. A total number of 380 household heads were obtained through the process, and 
formed the sample frame of the study as the household heads were the unit of analysis for the study.           

A sample size of 191 was determined through the application of sample size determination formula 
recommended by Garson [40] for a known population. The procedure was observed via the formula below; 

S    =    
        (   )

   (   )        (   ) 
             Krejcie and Morgan [38] 

Where s = sample size; X2 = table value of chi-square at 1 degree of freedom for desired confidence level (0.95); 
N = population size (320); and P = population proportion (0.5). Furthermore, in order to create representative 
probability-based selection, the study employed systematic sampling procedure to select every 5th household 
approached in each of the communities visited. A total number of 178 copies of the questionnaires representing a 
retrieval rate of 93% were retrieved.  From the 178 copies of the questionnaire collected, 12 had missing response 
items which made them unusable. The remaining 166 (87%) questionnaires were used in the analysis. This 
response rate is considered highly sufficient considering that it is close to three times the acceptable standard for 
survey response rate of 30% as suggested by Luo, et al. [31]. 
 

3.2. Presentation, Analysis and Discussion of Findings 
The information in Table 1 reveals the response of the respondents (household heads) to a question on whether 

there is poor or good flood control in the study area. The majority of the respondents which constituted more than 
60% of the respondent considered flood control in the study area as poor while almost 36% rated it to be good. The 
remaining percentage of the respondents provided no answer to the question. The implication of this finding is that 
there is poor flood control in Owode area of Ogun State. Subject to empirical investigation, the following Figure 2 
and Figure 3  further support the descriptive finding. Figure 2 shows the major road in Owode without adequate 
drainage system. This situation results frequently in flooding in the area. Figure 3 shows the existing blocked and 
damaged drainage system contributing to inability to control flood, the majority of access roads within the town 



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were not tarred and lack drainage systems. Thus when it rains, rain water cannot be efficiently evacuated thus 
resulting in flooding in the area.  
 

Table-1. Flood control distribution frequency. 

                                                  Flood 

Control Frequency Percent Cum. 

Poor 100 60.24 60.24 
Good 59 35.54 95.78 

Missing 7 4.22 100.00 
Total 166 100.00  

 

  
Figure-2. Road from Owode to Ado-odo Ota. 

 

 
      Figure-3.  Damage drainage system. 

 
The Table 2 reports major findings of the study. The likelihood ratio (0.0014) as revealed in the table indicates 

that all the slope coefficients of the study model are not simultaneously equal to zero. All the model predictors’ 
coefficients are greater than zero thus, ensuring that the model adequately fits the study data. These further 
exhibits appropriateness of the study logit regression model. Moreover, all predictors except land map variable are 
in addition statistically significant. This information is revealed in Table 2 and Table 3. 
 

Table-2. Average marginal effects (main table). 

Average marginal effects                           Number of obs   =    156      
Model VCE:  OIM 
                                                                    LR chi2 (5)       =     8.60 
                                                                    Prob > chi2      =     0.0014 
Log likelihood = -86.375679               
                                                                     Pseudo R2       =     0.6148 
Expression:   Pr (FLC), predict  
dy/dx w.r.t.: RON DRA PLA LAM PUB 
Delta-method 

FLC dy/dx Std. Err. z P>IzI [95% Conf. Interval 

RON .0562511 .0456303 1.23 0.008 .0331826        .1456848 
DRA .0247284 .0503046 0.49 0.000 .1233235        .0738667 
PLA .0234329 .0426012 5.50 0.000 .0800638        .0869296 
LAM .0331484 .0471046 0.70 0.577 .0059175        .1254717 
PUB .0159974 .0431779 0.37 0.011 .1006246        .0686297 

 
 



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Table-3. Normal logistic regression. 

Logistic regression                         Number of obs   =        156             
LR chi2(5)        =       2.60                     Prob > chi2        =     0.0087 
Log likelihood =  -86.375679                Pseudo R2         =     0.7148 

FLC Coef. Std. Err. z P>IzI [95% Conf. Interval 

RON .2534936 .2095725 1.21 0.000 .1572611        .6642479 
DRA .1114376 .2274127 0.49 0.000 .5571583        .3342831 
PLA .0154702 .1919952 0.08 0.000 .3608334        .3917739 
LAM .1493818 .2136347 0.70 0.484 .2693346        .5680981 
PUB .0720918 .1949381 0.37 0.000 .4541634        .3099798 
Cons -1.5188537 1.645526 -0.92 0.356 -4.744025      1.706318 

 

The implication is that with an improvement in road network, drainage system, planned environment and 
public awareness about flood prevention flood control in Owode area is likely to significantly improve. Logistic 
regression does not make assumptions concerning the distribution of scores for the predictor variables. However, it 
is sensitive to multicollinearity [41]. The study conducted Spearman’s Correlation statistics for all the predictors 
used in formulated models. The Table 4 shows that there is weak multicollinearity among the regressors.  
 

Table-4. Spearman’s correlation. 

FLC RON DRA PLA LAM PUB 

RON 1.0000     
DRA 0.0236 1.0000    

PLA 0.0426 -0.0037 1.0000   
LAM 0.1121 0.1022 -0.0698 1.0000  
PUB -0.0420 0.1217 -0.2897 0.0126 1.0000 

 
Moreover, the study could correctly predict that there is 64.7% likelihood that the residents in Owode area 

perceived flood control in the area to be poor. This is revealed by information in Table 5. Also, the Average 
Marginal Effects analysis shows that with an increase in the response categories of road network from lowest to 
highest the probability of good flood control significantly increases by 5.6%.  Increase in the response categories of 
drainage system from lowest to highest scale significantly increases the probability of good flood control by 2.4%. 
With an increase in the response categories of planned environment from lowest to highest scale the probability of 
good flood control is significantly increased by 2.3%; and an increase in the response categories of public awareness 
from lowest to highest scale increases the probability of good flood control by 1.5%. However, land map was found 
to be an insignificant factor in explaining flood control in the study area. Again, the Pseudo R2 (0.62) as revealed in 
Table 2 indicates that 62% of total variation in flood control in the study area can be explained by road network, 
drainage system, planned environment and public awareness.  
 

Table-5. Classification table. 

Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= .5 
True D defined as FLC != 0 

Classified Average marginal effects 

Sensitivity Pr ( +   I       D)             7.54% 
Specificity Pr ( -    I    ~ D)             98.88% 
Positive predictive value Pr ( D   I       +)             16.94% 
Negative predictive value Pr (~ D I       - )             65.19% 
False + rate for true ~ D Pr ( +   I    ~   D)           1.12% 
False – rate for true D Pr ( -    I        D)             100.00% 
False + rate for classified + Pr (~D  I       +)             100.00% 
False – rate for classified - Pr ( D   I       - )               34.81% 
Correctly classified                               64.71% 

 
The study area is a flat terrain that encourages water lodging. The stagnancy causes environmental pollution. 

The community lacks layout plans and is characterized by uncontrolled growth. Minimum setbacks are not 
observed. Due to its location as a nodal town, the study area is attracting migration of people from different part of 
the country for commercial activities and trans border trade. Increase in population without adequate planning 
thus causes uneven development. The seasonal floods caused displacement of people and negative impact on 
available infrastructure and health status of inhabitants. 

The implication of these findings is that road network system; efficient drainage system; effective planned 
environment and public awareness among the residents are key factors to ensure good flood control in Owode 
town of Ogun State. Thus, this study serves as a clarion call to all important stakeholders in environmental 
management to provide adequate and timely attention to these essential factors of flood control and management in 
the study area. This study finding are consistent with Hula and Udoh [26]; Abolade, et al. [25]; Hula and Udoh 
[26] and Ali and Sulaiman [10]. More importantly, the study empirical results underline the relative importance 
of the theoretical background (Integrated Non-Structural Model – ISM) of the study.  
 

4. Conclusion and Recommendations 
The results point out the significance of good road network, better drainage system, planned environment, and 

public awareness as land use planning measures is aiming to stop flood occurrences in Owode town. Thus, an 
integration of these measures can sustainably reduce flood risk in flood prone towns or cities like Owode. 

In line with the above, this study recommends that: 



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i. There is need to upgrade the current road network in the study area due to increase in number of vehicular in 
relation to border commercial activities. 

ii. Effective and efficient drainage system that can accommodate excessive rainfall are highly required in the town. 
iii. Government needs to re-evaluate planned environmental policies that will control both human activities and 

natural habitats. 
iv. There should be more concerted efforts on educating the public on the use of environment and possible hazards 

of non-compliance with flood control measures.   
 

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