







































AUSTRALIAN POPULATION STUDIES  2021 | Volume 5 | Issue 2 | pages 73–85 

 

© Irving et al. 2021. Published under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial licence 3.0 Australia  
(CC BY-NC 3.0 AU). Journal website: www.australianpopulationstudies.org 

Long term population decline and      
the impacts of COVID-19 in South 
Australia’s regions  

Jacob Irving*  University of South Australia 

Sandy Horne  University of South Australia 

Andrew Beer  University of South Australia 

*Corresponding author. Email: Jacob.Irving@unisa.edu.au. Address: University of South Australia, 

Way Lee Level 5, Room 62, 37-44 North Terrace, City West Campus, Adelaide, South Australia 5000 

Paper received 16 August 2021; accepted 9 November 2021; published 29 November 2021 

Abstract 

Background 

South Australian regions have been given little attention in discussions on population decline. 

Aims 

This paper aims to examine the nature and incidence of population decline in South Australia as well 

as evaluate the potential impacts of COVID-19. 

Data and methods 

Estimated Resident Population data from 2001 to 2020, and Census data from 2006 and 2016, were 

used to investigate demographic and economic change. Measures of population change, age 

structure, employment and components of population change were used. 

Results 

Population decline has been a feature of South Australia’s regions for decades and continues to be so 

as more of the population concentrates in its capital and regional centres where greater 

opportunities of employment and greater provisions of amenities are available. COVID-19 has the 

potential to accelerate this change if South Australia’s vulnerable regions are not able to absorb the 

economic impacts the pandemic poses. 

Conclusions 

A strong driver of population decline in the regions is employment loss in core industries. Strategies 

that support these industries or otherwise aim to stimulate economic activity in these communities 

are required to moderate further decline in South Australia’s regions especially as the economy 

recovers from the impacts of COVID-19. 

Key words 

Population decline; structural ageing; employment loss; loss of services; South Australia; COVID-19. 

 

  

   

http://www.australianpopulationstudies.org/
mailto:Jacob.Irving@unisa.edu.au


74 Irving et al. Australian Population Studies 5 (2) 2021 

 

 

1. Introduction 

Australia’s rural population peaked in 1911 soon after the nation’s agricultural frontier was 

established in the wake of colonisation by Europeans. By 1954, Australia had developed considerable 

metropolitan primacy, with 50% or more of State and Territory populations resident in their capitals 

(BITRE 2014). Over the past 110 years rural populations have fallen in many parts of Australia, with 

country towns experiencing decline and, in some instances, disappearing entirely (BITRE 2014). This 

process has been especially evident in South Australia where farm aggregation, the shift of retail 

functions from local towns to larger urban centres, the decline of some long-established industries, 

and the withdrawal of financial services from many centres (Beer et al. 2003) has seen populations 

fall. Nationally, there have been a number of studies examining the decline of rural and regional 

populations (McKenzie 1994), but much less attention has been paid to this issue in South Australia 

where rural populations are small even by the standards of other parts of Australia.  

This paper sets out to shed light on the nature, incidence and distribution of population decline in 

regional South Australia, paying attention to the processes of both demographic and economic 

change. The paper examines key drivers of change including structural ageing, the loss of 

employment, geographic distribution, overseas migration and the potential impacts of COVID-19. It 

examines ABS data as a lens into the processes of change in South Australia before commenting on 

the capacity of both short- and long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic to usher in a change in 

trajectories. Its findings are used to draw conclusions on how best to address population loss in 

South Australia. 

2. Data and methods 

This paper draws on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), especially the most recent 

Estimated Resident Population (ERP) data. The research examined ERP data over the past 20 years to 

assess long-term patterns of population change and age structure. Additionally, 2006 and 2016 

Census data was used to assess the change of employment over time in regions experiencing 

population decline. The primary geographical level chosen for analysis was Local Government Areas 

(LGAs). LGAs were analysed as they provide an effective geography for comparison, and one which is 

widely accepted in policy debates. It is also readily understood by a broad audience, with many 

residents identifying strongly with their local government and its territory. 

3. Population decline in South Australia 

3.1. Patterns of change 

Population change in Greater Adelaide and non-metropolitan South Australia between 2001 and 

2020 is shown in Figure 1. Proportional population increase in the first intercensal period to 2006 

was similar in Adelaide and non-metropolitan regions, and again between 2011 and 2016, but it is 

clear that there has been a distinct divergence in growth rates between Greater Adelaide and 

regional South Australia in the intercensal period between 2006 to 2011, and again between 2016 

and 2020. Where this divergence between metropolitan and non-metropolitan South Australia has 



Australian Population Studies 5 (2) 2021 Irving et al. 75 

 

occurred geographically can be seen in Figure 2, which shows regions that have experienced 

population decline. 

 

Figure 1: South Australia Population Growth Index (2001=1.00), Greater Adelaide and non-metropolitan 

South Australia 

Source: ABS.Stat Estimated Resident Population Database. 

Since 2001, South Australia’s population decline has been most marked in the Eyre Peninsula, the 

Far North, the Mid North and the Murraylands and Riverland. Very minor population loss has 

occurred in the Yorke Peninsula and along the Limestone Coast. The top 10 LGAs ranked by 

percentage population decline are listed in Table 1, with the estimated numerical population loss 

also presented. The table shows that the South Australian regions that declined in population are 

distinctive. The greatest losses occurred in Maralinga Tjarutja and Coober Pedy located to the 

north of the Eyre Peninsula and in the Far North (both are notable for their remoteness and 

reduced employment prospects). Peterborough and Orroroo/Carrieton LGAs, ranked third and 

fourth on this metric, are located in the outer Mid North. They have experienced long-term decline 

in key industries including, manufacturing, agriculture and mining. Ranks five through to 10 were 

shared between the regions of the upper east Eyre Peninsula (Kimba; Elliston; Wudinna and Cleve); 

and the Murraylands and Riverland (Karoonda East Murray; Southern Mallee) and these localities 

have experienced declines in employment in agricultural and mining industries. 

  



76 Irving et al. Australian Population Studies 5 (2) 2021 

 

 

 
Figure 2: Decline in LGA populations in South Australia, 2001-20 

Source: ABS.Stat Estimated Resident Population Database. 

Table 1: Top ten LGAs ranked by percentage population decline, 2001-20 

   Population 

2001 

Population 

2020 

Population change 

 LGA Region Number Per cent  

1 Maralinga Tjarutja Eyre Peninsula 136 64 -72 -52.9 

2 Coober Pedy Far North 2,414 1,820 -594 -41.6 

3 Peterborough Mid North 2,014 1,668 -346 -24.6 

4 Orroroo/ Carrieton Mid North 1,013 844 -169 -17.2 

5 Kimba Eyre Peninsula 1,229 1,056 -173 -16.7 

6 Karoonda East Murray Murraylands and Riverland 1,276 1,101 -175 -14.1 

7 Elliston Eyre Peninsula 1,150 1,011 -139 -13.7 

8 Wudinna Eyre Peninsula 1,449 1,307 -142 -12.1 

9 Southern Mallee Murraylands and Riverland 2,300 2,089 -211 -9.8 

10 Cleve Eyre Peninsula 1,939 1,780 -159 -9.2 

Total 14,920 12,740 -2,180 -14.6 

Source: ABS.Stat Estimated Resident Population Database.  



Australian Population Studies 5 (2) 2021 Irving et al. 77 

 

Of the ten LGAs to experience the greatest decline in population in South Australia between 2001 and 

2020, nine experienced a loss of population of 10% or more, with Cleve placing tenth at 9.2%. This 

makes for an estimated total loss of 2,180 people from the fastest shrinking LGAs. The cumulative 

population loss of all LGAs to experience a decline since 2001 was 5,348 people. In addition, 

Unincorporated SA, while not an LGA, had a population decline of 2,458 people, or 58.4%, from 5,911 

to 3,453, during the same period. It is important to acknowledge, however, the highly mobile nature of 

many Aboriginal Australians and they may have been temporarily absent from the place they would 

identify as ‘home’ on Census night affecting the data on which Estimated Resident Population is based. 

 
Figure 3: Growth in LGA populations in South Australia, 2001-20 

Source: ABS.Stat Estimated Resident Population Database. 

While there has been significant depopulation within the LGAs in Table 1, Figure 3 shows evidence of 

population growth in some parts of regional South Australia. These include the regions that make up 

the Adelaide metropolitan commuting region along the Fleurieu Peninsula, up to the lower Mid North 

and east to the Murraylands; Port Pirie, a Mid North regional centre; a number of coastal centres along 



78 Irving et al. Australian Population Studies 5 (2) 2021 

 

 

the Eyre Peninsula; the Copper Coast at the top of the Yorke Peninsula; Kangaroo Island off the coast of 

the Fleurieu Peninsula; several LGAs along the Limestone Coast; Renmark Paringa along the Murray 

River in the north-eastern Murraylands and Riverland; and Roxby Downs, a mining town in the Far 

North of South Australia. 

3.2. Age, employment and service provision  

To help understand the population trends shown above, we examined population age structure, 

contraction of employment opportunities, and loss of ancillary services. Figure 4 compares the 2020 

age structure of all LGAs to experience population decline between 2001 and 2020 with the age 

structure of the whole of South Australia. In regions showing population decline, the average 

proportion of the population aged between 20 and 44 was significantly lower than the state average 

while the proportion aged 55+ was above the state average. This distribution indicates that regions 

experiencing population decline have lower rates of retention of young adults than the rest of South 

Australia. Furthermore, the majority of adults in declining regions were aged 45 years or older, an 

age group which is “dominantly post-reproductive” (Smailes et al. 2019 p 107). A lower retention of 

young adults and a mostly post-reproductive adult population indicates these regions are vulnerable 

to, if not already experiencing, natural decrease where the number of deaths exceeds births. 

 

Figure 4: Age structure of regions with population decline compared to South Australia, 2020 

Source: ABS.Stat Estimated Resident Population Database. 

Employment loss as a driver of population decline was also examined. Table 2 shows the top ten 

LGAs ranked by loss of employed persons as a percentage. Each LGA, with the exception of Franklin 

Harbour, has been identified in Figure 2 to have experienced a decline in resident population. In 



Australian Population Studies 5 (2) 2021 Irving et al. 79 

 

aggregate 1,584 jobs were lost from these regions. There appears to be a close relationship in these 

areas between job loss and population loss and this represents a critical juncture in the economies of 

these places (Beer et al. 2021). 

Table 2: Top ten LGAs ranked by loss of employed persons, 2006 to 2016 

   Employment change 

 LGA Region Number Per cent  

1 Maralinga Tjarutja Eyre Peninsula -16 -53.3 

2 Anangu Pitjantjatjara Far North -297 -36.9 

3 Kimba Eyre Peninsula -89 -14.5 

4 Karoonda East Murray Murraylands and Riverland -81 -14.4 

5 Southern Mallee Murraylands and Riverland -128 -11.5 

6 Elliston Eyre Peninsula -62 -11.0 

7 Cleve Eyre Peninsula -101 -10.6 

8 The Coorong Murraylands and Riverland -265 -10.4 

9 Franklin Harbour Eyre Peninsula -61 -10.2 

10 Berri and Barmera Murraylands and Riverland -484 -10.1 

Total -1,584 -12.6 

Source: 2006 and 2016 Censuses, Place of Usual Residence databases. 

To assess the relationship between the loss of ancillary services in the regions and population 

decline, change in employment by sector was examined (Table 3). Critically, some 185 jobs in the 

service industries of health and education were lost from high population loss LGAs in rural South 

Australia, which suggests service industry contraction had a correlative, but not determinant, role in 

their shrinking populations. 

Table 3: Top ten LGAs ranked by loss of employed persons in health and education, 2006 to 2016 

   Employment change 

 LGA Region Number Per cent  

1 Maralinga Tjarutja Eyre Peninsula -4 -57.1 

2 Elliston Eyre Peninsula -24 -21.2 

3 Karoonda East Murray Murraylands and Riverland -17 -16.8 

4 Anangu Pitjantjatjara Far North -36 -12.9 

5 Franklin Harbour Eyre Peninsula -9 -8.6 

6 Kimba Eyre Peninsula -6 -7.5 

7 Cleve Eyre Peninsula -9 -6.6 

8 Port Augusta Far North -63 -4.6 

9 Goyder Mid North -10 -3.8 

10 Ceduna Eyre Peninsula -7 -1.8 

Total -185 -6.5 

Source: 2006 and 2016 Census, Place of Usual Residence databases – INDP 1 digit level ‘Health Care and Social Assistance’ 

and ‘Education and Training’. 

  



80 Irving et al. Australian Population Studies 5 (2) 2021 

 

 

4. Drivers of population change 

4.1. Drivers of population decline and growth in non-metropolitan South Australia. 

In 1994, McKenzie described how rural depopulation had been occurring over many decades in 

Australia (McKenzie 1994). Beer & Keane (2000) described how the Spencer Gulf area, which includes 

Port Pirie, Port Augusta and Whyalla, saw a population loss of nearly 5% in the decade from 1986. 

This earlier work reinforced how decline has been a trend in parts of South Australia for a 

considerable period. It is evident from the analysis that population decline in South Australia is 

pronounced and widespread in areas of dryland, broadscale farming and in parts of the Riverland not 

immediately adjacent to the Murray River. Non-metropolitan growth is concentrated around 

Adelaide, in the southern Eyre Peninsula and in coastal areas. At the level of the entire state, the 

South Australian government population projections anticipate Adelaide and its outer area will 

account for 79% of the South Australian population by the year 2041 (SA Government 2019), an 

increase from 77.8% in the ABS (2021) March ERP release. This is consistent with Figure 1, which 

highlighted a divergence in population growth rates of LGAs outside Greater Adelaide from 2001 to 

2020. 

Major drivers of population decline in regional South Australia include structural population ageing, 

the loss of employment opportunities, and the loss of ancillary services. These drivers are 

interrelated and changes in one often have implications for the other. The failure to retain young 

adults in many of the state’s regions is a powerful driver of population decline. It reflects the 

decisions of these young people to seek greater employment and educational opportunities in 

regional centres or in a major metropolitan area, and these are largely opportunities which their 

hometowns simply cannot provide (Smailes et al. 2019). The loss of ancillary services in declining 

regions has been well documented in McKenzie (1994) and it is a process that feeds back to 

accelerate population decline (Beer & Keane 2000). This vicious cycle of interconnection between 

population decline, structural ageing, the loss of employment opportunities and the removal of 

ancillary services is represented below in Figure 5, which has been adapted from Sorensen (1990a in 

McKenzie 1994). 

Reviewing the geographical distribution of South Australian population changes from 2001 to 2020 

reveals decline is most pronounced in those localities dependent on traditional regional industries, 

including the production of wool and grains. Contrary, perhaps to expectations, mining has provided 

limited employment security. This is most evident in the South Australian wheatbelt – the outer Mid 

North and the eastern Murraylands and Riverland – and in the upper east Eyre Peninsula. 

Furthermore, these vulnerable regions demonstrate common drivers of population decline such as 

structural ageing – where deaths outnumber births – and a correspondence with the loss of 

employment and services as seen in Tables 2 and 3 for the regions of the Eyre Peninsula, the Far 

North, and the Murraylands and Riverland. 

South Australia is often said to be the ‘driest state in the driest continent’ and is consequently 

particularly vulnerable to climate change, severe weather events, and natural disasters such as 

droughts and bushfires. A 2013 study that developed a vulnerability index looking at Australia’s 

country towns and the potential impacts of climate change noted that South Australia faced unique 

challenges due to its highly concentrated population, alongside other factors (Beer et al. 2013).  



Australian Population Studies 5 (2) 2021 Irving et al. 81 

 

 

Figure 5: The vicious cycle of population decline 

Source: adapted from McKenzie (1994). 

The Riverland towns of Waikerie, Renmark, Barmera, Berri and Loxton, with economies tied to the 

health of the River Murray, were scored as high risk on the vulnerability index (Beer et al. 2013). 

Agricultural production is at the centre of many country towns and climate change has been 

identified as a major threat to this industry with the projected higher temperatures and reduced 

rainfall having negative impacts. This risk will be particularly acute in South Australia’s more arid 

zones (Beer et al. 2013). Changing climate could prove to be a significant driver of out-migration and 

the eventual abandonment of some settlements. 

Some regions that have experienced a decline in traditional regional industries have reversed a trend 

of population decline due to their presence within the expanded commuting belt of Adelaide. 

Adelaide’s commuting belt has expanded over the last decades with advances in communications 

and technology. Consequently, the parts of the Mid North and Murraylands and Riverland closest to 

Adelaide have grown in population while their northern and eastern neighbours have declined. 

Alternatively, growth regions have come about due to post-productivist shifts in coastal and riverside 

regions which have become destinations for retirement, tourism (Argent et al. 2016; Smailes et al. 

2019) and unique consumptionist experiences (Morrison et al. 2015). The Regional Australia Institute 

(2015) has argued that other drivers include the growth of remote mining communities and towns on 

key transport routes. 

Regions in decline are caught in a vicious cycle in which employment and service loss are influenced 

by structural ageing and population decline, which then further exacerbates the loss of jobs and 

service provision. This phenomenon can help explain the distributions of population loss in regional 

South Australia to date and puts question marks around how migration patterns may change as the 

ongoing economic and health impacts of COVID-19 emerge over the next decade. 

  



82 Irving et al. Australian Population Studies 5 (2) 2021 

 

 

4.2. Short and long-term effects of COVID-19 in non-metropolitan South Australia 

Due to COVID-19, Australia’s international borders have been closed, and state borders have also 

been subject to period closures. South Australians have consequently been restricted to holiday 

destinations closer to home. Karoonda, a small town in the Murraylands, has sought to capitalise on 

the popularity of this increase in domestic tourism. With its silos as a drawcard – newly painted with 

artwork highlighting the history of the area – the Karoonda East Murray Council developed plans to 

expand and improve the town’s caravan park to accommodate the large influx of visitors. In addition, 

the council invested in a range of incentives for local businesses to upgrade facilities (ABC News 

Riverland 2021). The experiences of Karoonda reflect those of other small towns throughout South 

Australia with hopes expressed by many that events could boost community, industry and the local 

population. However, there remains a disconnect between the perception that the increased tourism 

in the short-term will result in any long-term population growth and reality, as this notion is 

inconsistent with population projections (Centre for Population 2020).  

Over the coming decade, Australia’s population growth is expected to slow to its lowest level in more 

than a century as net overseas migration has come to a standstill with the onset of the pandemic 

(ABS 2021). Furthermore, projections based on the 2021-22 Federal Budget forecast that overseas 

migration is not expected to return to pre-COVID-19 levels until 2023-2024 (Commonwealth of 

Australia 2021). While overseas migration in South Australia is mostly concentrated in Adelaide, the 

concern for the regions lies in that the economic shocks of COVID-19 are likely to affect South 

Australia’s most fragile economies as the state’s economy contracts. Communities caught within the 

vicious cycle of population decline, or at risk due to structural ageing, are more vulnerable to 

external events such as droughts and, economic and health crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic. 

They face the potential of further decline and even disappearance as residents migrate to more 

urbanised centres to secure services in these periods (Beer et al. 2011). Regional agricultural areas, 

for example, have suffered in the past due to droughts and yield volatility (Productivity Commission 

2005) producing work that is, when available, insecure. 

More broadly, political support for an ‘Australia first’ migration policy may result in lower targets for 

the number of immigrants entering Australia (Betts & Birrell 2020), thereby stripping away one 

option for growth in areas of decline as South Australia recovers from the economic effects of 

COVID-19. Wilson et al. (2021) notes that “population forecasting is particularly hazardous at this 

time” due to the uncertainty arising from the pandemic – and it is clear some population forecasts 

need to be approached with caution. Nevertheless, there are grounds for concern given South 

Australia’s reliance over the last two decades on overseas migration for population growth, 

especially given its role in reversing projections of net state loss in the early 2000s (Hugo 2008). 

5. Conclusions 

This paper has shown there has been a steady and ongoing decline in rural and remote South 

Australia for several decades as industries have contracted, farms aggregated, and as agricultural 

regions have turned away from their long-standing focus on production, becoming more significant 

for their consumption offerings. In contrast, regions closest to the Adelaide metropolitan and other 

large regional centres which offer high employment and amenities have experienced an increase in 

population. Three drivers of population decline – structural ageing, loss of employment opportunities 



Australian Population Studies 5 (2) 2021 Irving et al. 83 

 

and loss of ancillary services – were examined in this analysis. This paper finds that regions in decline 

have a positive correlation with structural ageing and the loss of employment and services. 

Furthermore, these drivers have feedback on each other such that initial population decline 

reinforces the fragility of core industries, which in turn contributes to the loss of support services. 

This paper lastly sought to review the potential short- and long-term impacts of the COVID-19 

pandemic as it applies to South Australia. Short-term impacts include low levels of migration from 

capital to rest of state areas, and a reduction in overseas migration. While a short-term reduction of 

overseas migration is negligible, two decades worth of marked reliance on net overseas migration for 

the maintenance of South Australia’s population growth, in addition to the historically high levels of 

interstate outmigration, means that the state is likely positioned for half a decade of slow growth 

until overseas migration resumes to pre-COVID-19 levels. The resultant contraction of the state’s 

economy as it recovers from the pandemic may result in a shock on South Australia’s most 

vulnerable economies and there is a substantial risk that some of these places will not recover if their 

core industries are adversely affected.  

The loss of employment in core industries is a key trigger for many regions to tip over from being at 

risk of population decline, to experiencing population decline and this is a central finding from this 

research. As we look to the future, we can only conclude that there is a need to find better ways to 

support these industries, or introduce new forms of economic activity into these places, in order to 

ensure the enduring legacy of COVID-19 is not the demise of South Australia’s regions. 

Key messages 

• Population decline has been occurring in remote South Australia for a long time and this trend 

looks set to continue. 

• Structural ageing and the loss of employment are significant causes of population decline in 

regional South Australia. 

• Loss of overseas migration due to COVID-19 may result in an economic shock to some South 

Australian regional economies which could lead to population decline. 

• Strategies that support regional industries or introduce new forms of economic activity in these 

communities are needed to moderate further population decline in South Australia. 

Acknowledgments 

The authors thank Justin McCulloch, The Australian Alliance for Social Enterprise at the University of 

South Australia, for producing the maps. 

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