







































AUSTRALIAN POPULATION STUDIES  2021 | Volume 5 | Issue 2 | pages 58–72 

 

© Argent 2021. Published under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial licence 3.0 Australia  
(CC BY-NC 3.0 AU). Journal website: www.australianpopulationstudies.org 

Dissecting the drivers of rural 
demographic decline: the case of the 
New England & North West region of 
New South Wales 

Neil Argent  University of New England 

Email: nargent@une.edu.au. Address: Department of Geography and Planning, University of New 

England, Armidale, NSW, 2351, Australia 

Paper received 21 September 2021; accepted 14 November 2021; published 29 November 2021 

Abstract 

Background 

In the contemporary academic literature, rural population decline has generally been regarded as a 

long-running and almost natural phenomenon. 

Aims 

This paper examines the complex temporal, spatial and cultural dynamics of the population of an 

inland, largely agriculturally-dependent rural region, the New South Wales New England & North 

West Statistical Division (SD), from the late 1990s to the 2016 Census. It investigates the key 

demographic processes that have driven the region’s spatially and temporally-uneven experiences of 

population change – including decline – over this tumultuous period, using these as portents of the 

regional population’s likely future trajectories. 

Data and methods 

The analysis draws on Australian Bureau of Statistics Census data for the SD’s population as a whole, 

and for the non-Indigenous and Indigenous segments of the population. 

Results 

The analysis identifies that a profound ageing process is underway across the entire region, is 

becoming more severe with the passing years, and leading to natural decrease for some Shires. 

However, the SD’s Indigenous population presents a striking contrast to the non-indigenous one, 

growing rapidly, increasing its share of the population and is a force for demographic rejuvenation. 

Conclusions 

The analysis reveals that a profound ageing process is underway across the entire SD and is becoming 

more severe with the passing years. The SD’s Indigenous population presents a striking contrast to 

the non-Indigenous, growing rapidly, increasing its share of the population – particularly in the 

western-most LGAs – and is a force for demographic rejuvenation. 

Key words 

New England & North West region; Indigenous populations; rural population ageing; natural 

decrease. 

  

   

http://www.australianpopulationstudies.org/
mailto:nargent@une.edu.au


Australian Population Studies 5 (2) 2021 Argent 59 

 

1. Introduction 

Not long ago, the idea of ‘rural decline’ was something of a tautology; during the 1980s, 1990s and 

into the 2000s the two terms almost pre-supposed each other. The era of the ‘rural crisis’ triggered 

enormous media interest in and coverage of, inter alia, the dire struggle of family farmers against 

international commodity markets and national banks, dying country towns, disappearing public and 

private services and sporting and social clubs, along with the fate of those residents left behind to 

cope. Academic interest in ‘the plight of the bush’ was indicated by a number of key publications 

seeking to disentangle the myriad causes of the crisis from its effects, and to offer policy-relevant 

remedies (see, for example, Pritchard & McManus 2000; Gray & Lawrence 2001). Australian rural 

regions were not alone in experiencing the chill winds of economic and political restructuring, with 

similar processes of restructuring noted in the US, Canada, the UK and numerous European nations 

where neoliberalised political reforms to macro-economic management in general, and to 

agricultural industry in particular, combined to pressure rural regions and towns (see, for example, 

Ramsey 2010; Nelson 2001; Bryant & Joseph 2001; Ilbery & Bowler 1998).  

From a demographic perspective, the phenomenon of rural population decline in the contemporary 

era is neither surprising nor especially newsworthy. Ravenstein’s laws of migration and the 

hypothesis of the mobility transition (Zelinsky 1971) - the latter providing the missing migration and 

spatial dimension of the theory of demographic transition - foresaw the tendency for societies 

become more urbanised as they undergo modernisation under the conditions of industrial 

capitalism. The relative growth of the world’s urban population at the expense of rural areas has 

continued since the onset of the Industrial Revolution and, by 2005, the global population had 

become, for the first time in recorded history, predominantly urban (United Nations 2012). However, 

such a finding tells us little, if anything about the complex ways in which rural regions and places are 

changing around the world. Due to their own particular initial resource endowments, political-

economic and institutional histories, different rural areas will have their own unique experience of 

economic, technological, political and demographic change.  

In this paper, I examine the complex temporal, spatial and cultural dynamics of the population of an 

inland, largely agriculturally-dependent rural region, the New England & North West region of New 

South Wales, from the late 1990s to the 2016 Census. The paper seeks to tease out the key 

demographic processes that have driven the region’s spatially and temporally-uneven experiences of 

population change – including decline – over this tumultuous period, using these as portents of the 

regional population’s likely future trajectories. Notably, the paper explores these processes and 

trajectories for the region’s population as a whole, then for the non-Indigenous and Indigenous 

segments, though the comparative analysis is constrained somewhat by a lack of local demographic 

data for the Indigenous population. 

2. Rural population decline in the literature 

In the contemporary academic literature, rural population decline has generally been regarded as a 

long-running and almost natural phenomenon that commenced from the end of the famed post-

WWII “long boom”. Often, decline is associated with the increasing mechanisation of agriculture, 

associated expanded economies of scale in farming, and concomitant increasing pressures on the 



60 Argent Australian Population Studies 5 (2) 2021 

 

 

family farming system that prevailed across much of the developed world. Such accounts give 

primacy to economic forces in explaining the push factors for demographic change, i.e., for people to 

leave rural employment and hence rural areas altogether. Levels of urbanisation across the globe 

increased throughout the post-WWII era, although they were already high in so-called metrocentric 

settler societies such as Australia, New Zealand and Canada by the 1950s (Smailes et al. 2019; Argent 

2016).  

The fortunes of agriculture and of rural society and settlement have generally been intimately 

intertwined with one another but also bound up with the institutions of government and subject, to 

a greater or lesser degree, to their political objectives. In Australia, colonial and then Federal and 

State Governments from the 1850s to the 1980s explicitly and actively encouraged rural versus urban 

economic, demographic and social development via “closer settlement” policies and a swathe of 

support mechanisms for agriculture and rural living (Williams 1975; Argent 2002), a stance consistent 

with the so-called productivist regime that pertained across Western Europe, the UK and North 

America (Ilbery & Wilson 1998; Wilson 2001). Nonetheless, while productivist supports for farming 

were thought to be a tide that lifts all boats (read individual farmers and rural regions) population 

trends painted a slightly more complex picture. Rural population trajectories across much of the so-

called ‘Global North’ have been anything but homogenous over the past few generations with, for 

example, net population loss through the 1950s to 1970s across Western Europe and the United 

States coinciding with slow growth in Australia but relatively robust net increase in the UK (Argent 

2016).  

Subsequent international trends are similarly heterogenous in spite of the generally widespread 

occurrence of so-called counterurbanisation (a.k.a. the population turnaround) during the 1970s and 

1980s (Beale 1975; Hugo 1994). In some nations such as Australia, counterurbanisation did indeed 

have a measurable impact for a decade or so on destination regions and towns almost across the 

rural spectrum, but then became more spatially and socially selective, and tied much more to higher 

amenity regions (Argent et al. 2007). As noted in the literature, peri-metropolitan fringe zones, 

coastal, lacustrine and riverine settings, and well-watered and well-connected inland regions have 

been favoured by a new generation of counterurbanisation migrants (Burnley & Murphy 2004). 

Elsewhere, a range of population pathways have been documented, depending somewhat on local 

economic bases, land uses and relative accessibility/remoteness. 

Counterurbanisation migration flows bolstered the population stocks of select rural regions but 

growing concern was expressed for the more remote, natural resource dependent and ‘deep rural’ 

(Lowe & Ward 2009) regions of Europe, North America and Australasia. In tacit recognition of the 

interrelated nature of rural populations, land use and economy (see Brown & Argent 2016), a 

‘desertification’ phenomenon was observed, where net population loss and demographic decline 

(e.g., loss of young cohorts, ‘left behind’ aged people) combined with public and private service 

withdrawals to effectively eviscerate the demographic, social and economic life of more remote 

regions and villages (Cawley 1994; Sorensen 1990).  

Consistent with a Myrdalian perspective on capitalist regional development, in which cycles of 

circular and cumulative causation drive regional divergence, “(i)n many cases, demographic change is 

taken as a proxy indicator for regional performance, and hence population decline is equated with 

weak economic development and/or less attractive living conditions” (Dax & Fischer 2018 p. 301). 



Australian Population Studies 5 (2) 2021 Argent 61 

 

For those regions and localities not favoured by amenity-led in-migration and counterubanisation 

flows, then, local economic dependence on natural resources – particularly agriculture but also 

mineral and energy extraction – can generate demographic responses (e.g., age-specific out-

migration) that further drive down factor conditions for the local economy. A corollary of these 

processes is the marginalisation of the ‘left-behind’ – those ageing-in place, the relatively immobile 

due to physical incapacity and/or lack of access to reliable transport – constrained in their ability to 

access even basic public services as these retreat to localities further up the local urban hierarchy, 

and unable to liquidate their housing asset and move to a better location due to the collapse of the 

local housing market (Cawley 1994). 

3. Diverging demographic dynamics in an agriculturally-dependent region 

3.1. Overview of the New England & North West region 

The empirical focus of this paper is the broad Northern Statistical Division (SD) of New South Wales, 

an official spatial unit that comprises the Northern Tablelands, North Central Plain and North West 

Slopes subregions (see Figure 1). The region was re-named the New England and North West region 

in 2011, and for simplicity’s sake is referred to as New England & North West hereafter. Covering an 

expanse of approximately 99,100 square kilometres (Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource 

Economics and Sciences 2015) in the northern sector of the state, the SD’s centroid is an 

approximate six hour drive north of the State’s capital, Sydney, and five hours drive south from the 

Queensland capital, Brisbane. As discussed elsewhere (Argent et al. 2010), a good understanding of 

the region’s historical geography cannot be had without recognising: (1) the process of colonisation 

(or invasion, as the Indigenous inhabitants and others would see it), and (2) the particular role that 

the region fulfilled in the colony’s (later the State’s) and the nation’s development as a supplier of 

vital food and fibre and export income. In relation to the first point, the Indigenous peoples of the 

area – principally the Anaiwan and the Kamilaroi – knew the Tablelands well and it is they who felt 

the full force of the extension of pastoralism into the region from the 1830s. 

A squatting ‘mode of occupance’ (Holmes 2006) developed in the region, facilitated by 

environmental conditions, locational and regulatory factors and the technological limits to 

settlement. Population densities and overall population levels remained comparatively low through 

the 1800s and early 1900s (Premier’s Department 1951). ‘Closer settlement’ policies of the late 

1800s and early 1900s facilitated both the amalgamation of small properties and the subdivision of 

large runs. Amidst this flux, the regional settlement system that expanded from the railway and 

major roads that ran along the spine of the New England Tablelands was consolidated (Premier’s 

Department 1951; Smailes & Molyneux 1965; Atchison 1977).  

Figure 2 shows the changing population levels of the New England & North West SD – incorporating 

the Statistical Sub-Divisions of the New England Tablelands, the North Central Plain, and the North 

West Slopes – from 1961 to 2016. As is clear from this graph, the New England & North West SD 

experienced sustained population growth (20%, or 1% per annum) over the two decades from 1961 

to 1981. The New England Tablelands’ population growth exceeded that of the aggregate SD (21.1%) 

while the drier, broadacre farming-dependent North Central Plain, incorporating Moree and  



62 Argent Australian Population Studies 5 (2) 2021 

 

 

 

Figure 1: Map of New England & North West Statistical Division, showing major sub-divisions 

Source: Argent (2016). 

Narrabri, grew more slowly (14.5%). Over the same period, each major region’s population share 

shifted little: an approximate two percentage point decline for the North Central Plain was absorbed 

by its neighbour, the North West Slopes. Surprisingly, levels of urbanisation remained largely 

unchanged. In 1961, just over 65% of the SD’s population resided in towns or other urban centres; by 

2011 this level had increased only slightly to 66.5%. Throughout the 1980s and 1990s, though, the 

New England & North West SD experienced a period of slow, persistent population loss (see Table 1). 

For the remainder of this paper, I explore: (1) the spatial unevenness of demographic dynamics 

within the region since the 1990s; (2) the key demographic drivers of regional and sub-regional 

population change, including net decline; (3) the extent to which key drivers provide an indication of 

future demographic change; and, finally, (4) the extent to which these demographic indicators have 

manifested themselves differently for Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations within the region, 

to the extent that data permit. 



Australian Population Studies 5 (2) 2021 Argent 63 

 

 
Figure 2: Population levels in New England & North West SD and SSDs, 1986-2016 

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, various censuses. Note: SSD = Statistical Subdivision. 

Table 1: Indigenous and non-Indigenous population change, New England & North West SD and SSDs, 

1986-2016 (% rate of change over period) 

Regions/populations 1986-1996 1996-2006 2006-2016 1986-2016 

New England & North West -1.2% -1.6% 5.3% 2.4% 

   Non-Indigenous -3.0% -3.8% 2.7% -4.1% 

   Indigenous 39.3% 33.1% 35.4% 151.0% 

Northern Tablelands SSD 0.9% 1.0% 1.7% 3.6% 

North Central Plan SSD -9.2% -8.5% -3.1% -19.4% 

Northern Slopes SSD -0.3% 2.0% 8.8% 10.7% 

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, various censuses. Note: SSD = Statistical Subdivision. 

3.2. Disentangling different scales and trends in population change 

Figure 2 and Table 1 show that different sectors of the New England & North West SD have 

experienced contrasting population trends since the mid-1980s, at least. The entire SD reached its 

hitherto population peak of about 181 000 people at the 1991 Census, a level that it would not see 

again until a generation later. From the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s population loss was felt across 

almost the entire region but loss was concentrated particularly in the drier and more broadacre 

farming dependent North Central Plain. While individual towns and local government areas on the 

Tablelands and the Northern Slopes did experience decline during this period – smaller shires such 

as Barraba and Bingara losing over ten per cent of their residents between 1991 and 1996 – the 

overall population levels of these sub-regions exhibited slow growth over the entire three decades. 

Shires contiguous with the major regional centres of Armidale and Tamworth generally grew the 

fastest. However, the two westernmost local government areas of Moree and Narrabri underwent 

consistent depopulation over the thirty years from 1986, though the rate of loss did taper off in 

the decade prior to 2016. Between them, these two last-mentioned shires lost close to one-fifth of 

their populations over the study period. 



64 Argent Australian Population Studies 5 (2) 2021 

 

 

In many respects, then, the New England & North West SD’s last quarter century or so of 

fluctuating trends – first substantial decrease then slow but steady recovery – disguise some 

complex intra-regional processes. While net loss was consistently felt across all local government 

areas through the late 1980s and 1990s, the turn of the new century saw the eastern and southern 

portions of the SD – the Northern Tableland and the Northern Slopes – on the one hand, and the 

north-westernmost LGAs of Narrabri and Moree, on the other, diverge in their demographic 

trajectories. This emerging divide somewhat reflects the growing importance of the regional 

centres of Armidale, Inverell, Tamworth and Gunnedah relative to the smaller, more agriculturally-

dependent and lower amenity towns to the north and west. Further investigation of the 

dimensions of demographic divergence between the major regional centres and the smaller towns 

and rural remainder is not possible within the confines of this paper but would be a worthwhile 

exercise. 

As discussed above, the SD is home to the Indigenous people of the Anaiwan and Kamillaroi 

nations (amongst others) as well as a non-Indigenous population of more recent provenance. For 

some decades it has been evident that Australia’s Indigenous and non-Indigenous population are 

substantially different to each other in key demographic terms. While there has been some 

convergence noted between them over recent years in the areas of fertility and life expectancy 

(Carmichael 2019), Australia’s Indigenous population exhibits a generally much younger age 

structure, is much more likely to live in rural and remote regions, and is growing substantially 

faster than the non-indigenous (Taylor 1997; Markham & Biddle 2018; Taylor et al. 2020). As Table 

1 and Figure 2 reveal, such stark contrasts between the two populations can also be discerned 

within the New England & North West SD. A key aspect of Indigenous population growth, but one 

that is difficult to precisely quantify, relates to the relative propensity of people to identify as 

Indigenous; a tendency that varies spatially and temporally. As shown by Biddle & Markham 

(2018), the national Indigenous population grew by around 80 000 across the 2011-16 intercensal 

period due to this factor alone. Gains due to changes in identification have been strongest in more 

accessible parts of the country and negligible – at best – in remote regions (Taylor et al. 2020).  

Between 1986 and 2016, while the SD population grew by close to 2.4 per cent in aggregate – 

though noting the losses experienced through the 1980s and 1990s – the Indigenous population 

increased by just over 150 per cent (i.e., 5 per cent per annum). The non-indigenous population 

thus dropped by over four per cent overall for the same period. Although the Indigenous 

population still constitutes a relatively small minority within the SD its share of the population has 

more than doubled between 1986 and 2016, from just over four per cent to over ten per cent; 

though it comprises nearly 22 per cent of the Moree Plains LGA population. The reasons for this 

substantial proportional shift are difficult to pinpoint due to the unavailability of Indigenous 

fertility and mortality data at detailed spatial scales but, as is discussed in more detail below, a 

younger age structure, higher fertility and higher rates of natural increase should feature 

prominently in any explanation. 

3.3. Seven steps of rural population decline 

A diagnostic framework of impending population decline for New Zealand regions based on 

detailed demographic analysis was developed by Jackson (2014). Consisting of seven broad 

indicators that encompass the changing balance between mortality and fertility, and between 



Australian Population Studies 5 (2) 2021 Argent 65 

 

young and old, Jackson’s (2014) model demonstrates how shifts in age-sex structure over time can 

lead to natural decrease and almost irreversible population decline (see Table 2). For this paper, 

the full set of measures was applied to the Statistical Division for most of the study period (1996-

2016), but only the first six indicators were used in the separate analyses of the Indigenous and 

non-Indigenous populations of the broad region and for a slightly shorter period due to 

unavailability of data (e.g., no Indigenous births and deaths data at the regional scale prior to 

2001). 

Table 2: Jackson’s (2014) De-population Diagnostic Framework 

Indicator Demographic measure 

Youth deficit 15-24 year old population < 15% of population  

Labour market entry/exit ratio 15-24 / 55-64 age group ratio < national average 

15-24 / 55-64 age group ratio < 1 

Prime reproductive ages* Per cent 25-39 age group < national mean  

Per cent 25-39 age group < 15% of local population 

Older population Per cent aged over 65 > national mean  

Per cent aged over 65 > 20% of local population 

Prime working age Population aged 20-69 declining over time: numerically 

Population aged 20-69 declining over time: proportionally 

Older/youth ratio Ratio of over 65s / 0-14 year olds > national mean 

Ratio of over 65s / 0-14 year olds > 1 

Natural increase/decrease Natural increase < 0.25% local population size 

Source: Jackson (2014). * Note: For the Indigenous population, the prime reproductive age measure encompassed the      
15-34 year age group given its different fertility behaviour (Carmichael 2019). 

Table 3: Jackson’s (2014) Diagnostic Framework applied to New England & North-West SD and Australia 
 

1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 

Youth deficit    Australia 14.4% 13.7% 13.6% 13.3% 12.8% 

                           New England & N W 13.7% 13.1% 12.8% 12.7% 12.2% 

Entry/exit ratio  Australia 1.73 1.46 1.23 1.15 1.09 

                               New England & N W 1.44 1.23 1.04 0.98 0.90 

Prime reproductive Australia 23.2% 22.1% 20.9% 20.9% 21.1% 

                                   New England & N W 20.8% 18.9% 17.0% 16.2% 16.4% 

% aged 65+    Australia 12.0% 12.6% 13.3% 14.0% 15.1% 

                         New England & N W 12.5% 13.8% 15.5% 17.2% 19.6% 

Prime working age Australia 62.5% 63.0% 63.8% 64.5% 64.6% 

                                    New England & N W 60.6% 60.3% 60.5% 60.5% 60.5% 

Older/youth ratio Australia 0.56 0.61 0.67 0.73 0.84 

                                  New England & N W 0.53 0.61 0.72 0.83 1.00 

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, various censuses. Note: Shaded cells indicate results that exceed the indicator’s 
threshold. 

  



66 Argent Australian Population Studies 5 (2) 2021 

 

 

Table 3 displays the results for six of the Jackson indicators applied to the nation as a whole and 

the New England & North West SD. Of course, it needs to be recognised that regional age-sex 

structures are influenced, to a greater or lesser degree, by those of the broader nation, along with 

political, economic and social processes operating at national and other geographical scales. While 

the table does clearly demonstrate the gradual decline of the youthfulness of the SD and the 

concomitant impact of that change on other segments of the population it is important to 

recognise that Australia as a whole is also ageing and has been for some time. For instance, in 

relation to the youth deficit indicator, both Australia and the New England & North West SD have 

fallen below the 15 per cent threshold since 1996 at least, though the size of the SD’s deficit has 

expanded more rapidly than that of the nation. The workforce entry/exit ratio was well above 1.0 

for both at the period’s onset but has progressively declined over time and fallen below 1.0 (i.e., 

more people are notionally moving out of the workforce than entering) for the New England & 

North West SD from around the time of the 2011 Census.  

Not surprisingly, then, the proportion of the population in the post-retirement ages has increased 

at national and New England & North West SD scales. Equally, the older/youth ratio has steadily 

grown from around one older person to every two youths in 1996 to 1.0 for the New England & 

North West SD in 2016, and is approaching that level for Australia overall. The prime reproductive 

ages’ proportional share of the population has shrunk slowly for the nation and the SD, though did 

jump slightly for both in 2016. Nonetheless, the New England & North West’s level is nearing the 

15 per cent threshold for this indicator. Finally, the prime working age indicator has actually 

increased for the nation – possibly due to substantial international migrant intakes during the 

2000s – while remaining largely unchanged for the SD. Overall, Table 3 shows that the SD’s 

population has been more affected by ageing and other processes likely to lead to depopulation 

than the nation – another key dimension of Jackson’s (2014) measures.  

Needless to say, perhaps, migration has played a vital role in shaping population change and age-

sex structures across the New England & North West SD (see Argent & Walmsley 2008). Table 4 

shows that natural increase has been maintained across the broad region since the turn of the 

current century, though natural decrease emerged in two LGAs (Glen Innes/Severn and 

Tenterfield), and nearly occurred in another (Gwydir) during the 2011-16 intercensal period. Such 

an outcome reflects declining fertility – itself an outcome of age-selective net migration loss – 

which also helps drive the structural ageing dynamic within the region. As is obvious in the table, 

net out-migration was especially severe in the more remote, broadacre agriculture-dependent 

areas of Moree and Narrabri during the early 2000s. However, in terms of its implications for the 

youthfulness of local populations, and their capacity to replace themselves, net migration loss may 

have had the most substantial impacts on some of the more remote Tablelands and Slopes shires, 

such as Glen Innes/Severn, Tenterfield and Gwydir.  

  



Australian Population Studies 5 (2) 2021 Argent 67 

 

Table 4: Natural change and net migration, New England & North West SD, 2001-2016 

 Natural 

increase 

(per 1000) 

Net 

migration 

rate  

(per 1000) 

Natural 

increase 

(per 1000) 

Net 

migration 

rate  

(per 1000) 

Natural 

increase 

(per 1000) 

Net 

migration 

rate  

(per 1000) 

 2001-06 2006-11 2011-16 

Northern Tablelands SSD +17.83 -20.82 +18.72 +6.93 +14.04 +6.99 

North Central Plain SSD +40.01 -119.13 +42.90 -69.39 +41.64 -46.20 

Northern Slopes SSD +18.15 +1.44 +22.19 +13.98 +22.44 +26.34 

New England and N W +21.73 -27.66 +24.08 -1.86 +22.02 +8.35 

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2006, 2007, 2020a, 2020b. Note: SSD = Statistical Sub-Division. 

To convey some sense of how ageing processes have affected different parts of the SD over time 

and space, Table 5 shows the results of applying the Jackson framework to the local government 

areas (LGAs) that comprise the New England & North West SD, showing the proportion of LGAs 

whose population fell below each indicator. Working down the table, one can clearly see the 

relative decline of the youth and adolescent cohorts in the SD over the two decades. Almost all 

LGAs in the region have experienced a youth deficit for the entire period, and the workforce 

entry/exit ratio has rapidly fallen below 1.0 for all but one LGA by 2016, and was below the 

national mean for almost the full two decades. A further consequence of this shift for the region’s 

age structure can be seen in the growing proportion of LGAs with over 20 per cent of their 

populations aged over 65 years and, on the same measure, which exceeded the national mean.  

Table 5: Jackson’s Framework applied to LGAs of New England & North West SD, 1996-2016 (% of LGAs 

that fell below the critical threshold for each indicator) 

 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 

Youth deficit 95% 95% 92% 92% 92% 

Entry/exit ratio < 1 37% 58% 75% 75% 92% 

Entry/exit ratio < national level 95% 84% 92% 92% 92% 

Prime reproductive ages < 15% 0% 0% 8% 50% 42% 

Prime reproductive ages < national mean 95% 95% 92% 100% 100% 

% aged 65+ > 20% 0% 11% 0% 42% 58% 

% aged 65+ > national mean 63% 79% 83% 100% 100% 

Older/youth ratio > 1 0% 11% 0% 42% 58% 

Older/youth ratio > national mean 53% 68% 67% 83% 92% 

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, 1998, 2007a, 2021. 

The gradual temporal and spatial ageing of the regional population can be seen in the increasing 

proportion of LGAs whose older/youth ratio fell below 1 (from zero in 1996 to over half by 2016). 

Similarly, there has been a slow but sure expansion of the number of Shires whose ‘reproductive 

ages’ accounted for less than 15 per cent of their populations; from zero in 1996 and 2001 but up 

to around half by 2011. Such trends point to an almost inexorable decline in fertility in the region, 

itself obviously linked to the out-migration and net migration loss of young adults, as well as 

retirement-focused in-migration, which further accelerates local ageing and predisposed the 

regions to future natural decrease.  



68 Argent Australian Population Studies 5 (2) 2021 

 

 

Table 6 shows the same set of indicators applied to the New England & North West SD’s 

Indigenous population for the four Census years from 2001, while Table 7 does the same in 

relation to the region’s non-Indigenous population (i.e., last mentioned is derived by subtracting 

the Indigenous population from the total population for the SD for each indicator). The Indigenous 

population presents a striking contrast to the non-Indigenous population across virtually all 

measures; the proportion of its population that is deemed young is growing rather than declining, 

and the same is true for the prime working age population. While the workforce entry/exit ratio 

has declined it has done so from a relatively high level, and is still over double that of the nation. 

On all other indicators the SD’s Indigenous population easily exceeds the Jackson indicator 

thresholds, although some slow convergence is occurring between the Indigenous and non-

Indigenous populations in this regard. Notwithstanding its minority status in the region the 

Indigenous population is a source of rejuvenation. This point is borne out by Table 7 which shows 

that the youth deficit would have been more severe, and the workforce entry/exit ratios and 

youth/aged ratios would have been lower, and would have fallen below the critical thresholds 

earlier, if not for the Indigenous population. 

Table 6: Jackson’s Framework applied to the New England & North West SD Indigenous population 

 2001 2006 2011 2016 

Youth deficit 17.9% 17.9% 18.5% 18.1% 

Entry/exit ratio < 1 3.73 3.26 2.95 2.31 

Entry/exit ratio < national level Yes Yes Yes Yes 

Prime reproductive ages < 15% 31.5% 29.7% 29.8% 29.8% 

Prime reproductive ages < national mean No No No No 

% aged 65+ > 20% 2.9% 3.5% 4.5% 6.0% 

% aged 65+ > national mean No No No No 

Prime working age 49.0% 49.5% 51.3% 53.9% 

Older/youth ratio > 1 0.07 0.09 0.12 0.17 

Older/youth ratio > national mean No No No No 

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (1998, 2007a, 2021) 

Table 7: Jackson’s Framework applied to the New England & North West SD non-Indigenous population 

 2001 2006 2011 2016 

Youth deficit 12.8% 12.4% 12.2% 11.5% 

Entry/exit ratio < 1 1.15 0.96 0.89 0.82 

Prime reproductive ages < 15% 18.8% 16.9% 16.2% 16.4% 

% aged 65+ > 20% 14.6% 16.5% 18.4% 20.9% 

Prime working age 61.1% 61.5% 61.4% 61.3% 

Older/youth ratio > 1 0.69 0.83 0.97 1.18 

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (1998, 2007a, 2021). 

  



Australian Population Studies 5 (2) 2021 Argent 69 

 

4. Conclusions 

In the context of the major ideological and regulatory shifts that took place in rural Australia from the 

1970s, along with occasional if severe climatic conditions (e.g., protracted droughts), this paper 

sought to explore some of the key factors that underlay its spatially and temporally uneven 

experiences of population decline through the 1990s and 2000s. In addition, but perhaps even more 

importantly, it has investigated some of the diverse trajectories of demographic change across the 

New England & North West SD over the past thirty years, taking into account indigeneity and relative 

location. Unfortunately, and this is a weakness of the paper’s overall argument, data on Indigenous 

fertility and mortality are unavailable at the local scale and this has precluded the measurement of 

natural increase/decrease and net migration in the same manner as for the non-Indigenous 

population.  

In applying Jackson’s (2014) diagnostic framework to the region as a whole, the analysis has revealed 

how ageing processes in combination with age-selective migration has affected the age structure, 

and eventually the capacity of individual LGAs to, for example, replace retiring workers and 

experience natural increase. A profound ageing process is underway across the entire region and is 

becoming more severe with the passing years. However, the SD’s Indigenous population presents a 

striking contrast to the non-Indigenous one, growing rapidly, increasing its share of the population – 

particularly in the western-most LGAs – and is a force for demographic rejuvenation, and boosting 

local school enrolments, the demand for post-school training and education and workforce entry 

rates. However, the continued heavy migration losses in the same regions where nature increase is 

highest suggest that a lack of employment and social opportunities, together with changing 

environmental factors, perhaps (e.g., droughts, heatwaves), are forcing residents to seek their 

fortunes elsewhere. Nonetheless, it is vital for future demographic planning for rural regions that 

greater attention is paid to this trend by academics and policy-makers. 

Key messages 

• Structural population ageing is affecting the demographic trajectories of the broad rural region of 

the New England & North-West SD of New South Wales, leading to eventual natural decrease in 

some local government areas. 

• Net migration loss has been particularly severe in the most remote and agriculturally-dependent 

parts of the SD. 

• Experiences of population decline through the 1990s and 2000s were felt unevenly throughout 

the SD. 

• The Indigenous population of the SD has grown rapidly over the thirty years to 2016, and more 

than doubled its share of the population, particularly in the youth and young adult age groups 

where the demand for schooling and labour market entry support is greatest. 

Acknowledgments 

The author thanks the reviewer for their incisive and constructive comments on an earlier draft of 

this paper. All remaining errors and omissions are those of the author alone. 

  



70 Argent Australian Population Studies 5 (2) 2021 

 

 

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