Baltic Journal of Economic Studies 184 Vol. 10 No. 5, 2024 This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 4.0 1 Zaporizhzhia National University, Ukraine (corresponding author) E-mail: uaklopov@gmail.com ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2199-2462 2 Zaporizhzhia National University, Ukraine E-mail: yuliashvets@ukr.net ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0294-1889 DOI: https://doi.org/10.30525/2256-0742/2024-10-5-184-191 THE MODEL OF ECONOMIC RECOVERY OF UKRAINE IN THE POST-WAR PERIOD: THE STRATEGY OF THE ECONOMIC MIRACLE Ivan Klopov1, Julia Ohrenych2 Abstract. Objective. The article examines the possibilities for Ukraine's economic recovery in the post-war period, focusing on key areas of development such as infrastructure investment, foreign aid, attracting private capital, restoring industrial enterprises and creating innovative infrastructure in old industrial regions. Special emphasis is placed on integration into European economic structures as a strategic direction that will contribute to economic stability and development. Methodology. The study is based on the analysis of scientific sources, international experience of post-war reconstruction, as well as the evaluation of economic indicators of Ukraine, which allows to determine the most effective approaches to the reconstruction and modernisation of the economy. Various aspects of infrastructure restoration, in particular transport and energy infrastructure, necessary to meet the basic needs of the economy and increase its productivity, are assessed. The results suggest that investment in critical infrastructure, such as transport and energy, can significantly accelerate recovery and lay the foundations for sustainable economic growth. Support from the international community and financial assistance will help stabilise the economy in the short term, while long-term structural reforms and industrial modernisation will increase competitiveness and ensure integration into European markets. The creation of innovation clusters in old industrial regions can also contribute to regional development and reduce economic disparities. Practical consequences. The proposed approaches have the potential to inform state policy in the field of post-war reconstruction, the promotion of attraction of international investments, the development of industrial and innovation clusters, and the expansion of co-operation with European partners. The importance of structural reforms lies in the creation of a favourable investment climate and the improvement of governance processes, which are critical for sustainable economic development. Value / Originality. The article proffers a comprehensive approach to the recovery of Ukraine, with a focus on contemporary economic realities and the potential of European integration. The article's uniqueness lies in its emphasis on establishing long-term conditions for sustainable development through a novel rethinking of industrial zones. This approach will enable Ukraine to not only recover from the war but also ensure sustainable economic growth in the future. Keywords: infrastructure reconstruction, economic growth, investment, structural reforms, military losses, sustainable development. JEL Classification: Q01, H12, O47 1. Introduction The post-war reconstruction of Ukraine is a complex and multifaceted task that requires careful planning and coordination at all levels of the economy. The war caused significant damage to infrastructure, industry and human capital, creating unprecedented challenges for economic stabilisation and development. However, concomitant with these difficulties, new opportunities for modernising the economy, integrating into European markets, attracting foreign investments and developing innovative infrastructure are emerging. These factors have the potential to serve as the foundation for the emergence of a novel economic paradigm – one that is sustainable, innovative, and competitive. In this context, it is imperative to formulate a strategic approach to recovery, encompassing both Baltic Journal of Economic Studies 185 Vol. 10 No. 5, 2024 short-term measures to address the fundamental needs of the population and to stabilise the economy, and long-term structural reforms to foster sustainable development. One of the key elements of the recovery is infrastructure projects, in particular the reconstruction of transport, energy and digital infrastructure, which should serve as a basis for further economic growth. In addition, integration into European economic structures and the creation of innovation clusters in old industrial regions will help increase Ukraine's international competitiveness. It also examines the role of the international community and foreign partners in supporting Ukraine's economic recovery. International financial assistance and investment can not only accelerate reconstruction, but also act as a catalyst for the implementation of large-scale reforms needed to ensure effective economic governance and a transparent business environment. Such a comprehensive approach will enable Ukraine to lay the economic foundations for a stable and prosperous future, taking into account global trends and regional challenges. In this way, the article aims to analyse the strategic directions of Ukraine's economic recovery, in particular investment in infrastructure, integration into European markets, development of innovative infrastructure and implementation of structural reforms. It provides a comprehensive overview of the challenges and opportunities facing Ukraine and identifies the key steps that can ensure not only economic recovery but also sustainable growth in the long term. 2. Challenges and Opportunities of Post-War Reconstruction Ukraine's post-war recovery requires not only the resolution of urgent economic and social problems, but also a strategic vision of future development. This chapter analyses in detail both the key challenges facing the country and the potential opportunities for creating an economic model that will ensure sustainable growth. Economic challenges. Ukraine's post-war recovery faces many economic challenges that require a comprehensive approach and international support. The following are the main challenges Ukraine faces in its recovery process. The large-scale destruction of enterprises, infrastructure and housing due to military actions requires substantial resources for reconstruction and modernisation, which is crucial for further economic growth (Lemishko et al., 2022). The constant growth of public debt, the need for external financing and grants due to limited internal resources significantly complicates the possibility of an independent recovery of the economy (Danylenko & Yershova, 2023). The war led to significant population displacement, loss of skilled labour and reduced employment, limiting the country's economic opportunities in the post-war period (Kruhlov & Tereshchenko, 2023). Effective reconstruction requires large-scale assistance from the international community. At the same time, it is necessary to ensure transparency in the use of the funds provided and to create favourable conditions for foreign investors (Kocherov, 2023). The war led to inflation, devaluation of the hryvnia and deterioration of macroeconomic indicators, which create additional barriers to the rapid recovery of the economy (Skrypnychenko, 2022). Restoring the environment, clearing the territories of dangerous remnants of war and sustainable development require not only significant resources but also close co-operation between the state, communities and international partners (Shevchuk et al., 2023). Reconstruction must include a transition from a raw to a high-tech economy, which requires significant innovation and reform to create a competitive economic environment (Pidorycheva, 2022). Ukraine's post-war economic recovery requires a comprehensive approach, close co-operation with international partners, and addressing structural problems to create a sustainable and innovative economy in the long term. Opportunities for development. The post-war recovery of Ukraine presents a range of opportunities for long-term economic development, with the modernisation of the economy and the attraction of international capital being pivotal. A key factor in this process is the attraction of foreign investment, particularly in the energy, agriculture and industrial sectors, which will contribute to the strengthening of the economy and the recovery of infrastructure. It is imperative to establish a transparent and stable environment for investors, which will encompass the reform of legal and regulatory norms to safeguard their interests and foster long-term collaboration (Riznyk, 2023). Another promising tool for development is the public-private partnership (PPP), which has the potential to significantly accelerate the recovery of infrastructure by combining the resources of the state and the private sector. The utilisation of PPP mechanisms facilitates the attraction of private capital, enhances the efficiency of resource management, and fosters competition, thereby contributing to the creation of new employment opportunities and the development of critical infrastructure facilities, including roads, bridges, and energy facilities (Matviishyn & Vershyhora, 2022). The post-war recovery also opens up opportunities for structural transformation of Ukrainian industry, particularly in high-tech industries such as engineering and the military-industrial complex. This will facilitate Ukraine's integration into the European market, Baltic Journal of Economic Studies 186 Vol. 10 No. 5, 2024 providing access to new technologies and increasing the country's export potential. The development of high- tech industry can become a driving force for economic growth, creating competitive products for domestic and foreign markets (Kushnirenko & Gakhovich, 2023). Restoration of tourism infrastructure and promotion of the country's unique image internationally can stimulate domestic and inbound tourism. This will help create new jobs and contribute to the economic growth of regions (Sira, Holubets, & Bezruchenkov, 2022). Adherence to European standards in the management and rehabilitation of infrastructure opens up opportunities for attracting international grants and loans, which contributes to Ukraine's integration into European structures (Pidorycheva, 2022). In addition, the restoration of human capital and the reform of the education system will play an important role in improving the skills of the workforce and maintaining social standards. The priority directions are the improvement of health, social protection and professional retraining of workers, which will allow rapid integration of personnel into the labour market and support the country's recovery at all levels. This approach will ensure stable development and increase the competitiveness of the Ukrainian labour force, contributing to strengthening the economic base for future generations (Kruhlov & Tereshchenko, 2023). 3. Key Strategies for Economic Recovery Following the identification of the primary challenges and opportunities for economic recovery, the development of effective strategies to assist Ukraine in overcoming the consequences of the war and establishing a sustainable economy is imperative. A comprehensive approach is proposed, encompassing the following key directions: infrastructural restoration, strategic restoration of industrial enterprises, creation of innovative infrastructure in existing industrial regions, coordinated support from the international community, and integration into European economic structures. Infrastructural restoration. Infrastructure development is one of the key areas for Ukraine's post- war economic recovery, as destroyed roads, bridges, railways and energy systems severely limit the ability of the economy to function normally and integrate with international markets. Successful reconstruction of infrastructure will not only restore transport and energy links, but also provide a basis for attracting investment, developing business and improving the quality of life of the population. The main aspects of infrastructure development in the context of economic recovery are discussed in detail below. Transport infrastructure is vital for logistics, trade and population mobility. In the aftermath of the war, many roads, bridges and railways were destroyed, limiting national and international transport options. Reconstruction of transport corridors is a priority as it will allow trade to resume, provide access to European Union markets and help create new jobs. Investment in roads and railways will help integrate the Ukrainian economy into the global trade network and facilitate access to remote regions, contributing to their development (Lemishko et al., 2022). Ukraine's energy system suffered significant damage during the hostilities. Rehabilitation and upgrading of power plants, electricity grids and gas pipelines will ensure a stable supply of energy to businesses and residential areas, which is critical for economic growth. In addition, investment in renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power can reduce dependence on fuel imports and contribute to sustainable economic development. The transition to clean energy sources is also part of Ukraine's integration into European energy standards (Amosha & Amosha, 2023). Innovative development of old industrial regions can become an important stimulus for the modernisation of the economy. The creation of industrial parks, innovation clusters and research and development centres in such regions will make it possible to attract investment, develop new technologies and create new jobs. This will not only contribute to the recovery of the post-war economy, but also help attract young talent interested in new opportunities for professional development in Ukraine (Redzyuk, 2022). In order to successfully restore Ukraine's infrastructure, it is necessary to attract international investment, as domestic financial resources are limited. Investment of foreign funds in transport and energy projects will contribute to faster reconstruction and modernisation of infrastructure. Moreover, the involvement of international partners in the financing of projects will assist in ensuring transparency, the high quality of work, and compliance with international standards. Significant partners in this process may include the European Union, the G7 countries, and international financial institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (Kulinich, 2023). Strategic restoration of industrial enterprises. The strategic rehabilitation of industrial enterprises is an important element of Ukraine's post-war economic recovery, as industry plays a key role in creating jobs, producing goods and forming the country's GDP. After the destruction caused by the war, many enterprises need to be modernised and adapted to new conditions. The introduction of technological innovations such as digital solutions, artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things (IoT) is central to the recovery. This will optimise production processes, reduce material losses and increase product quality, which is important for strengthening the competitiveness of Ukrainian enterprises on the world market (Kulinich, 2023). Of particular importance Baltic Journal of Economic Studies 187 Vol. 10 No. 5, 2024 is the greening of production, which is in line with the global trend towards sustainable development and enables integration into international markets, especially the EU, where environmental standards are high. This involves minimising emissions, reducing energy and water consumption and using environmentally friendly materials. The introduction of renewable energy sources will help to reduce dependence on traditional fossil fuels and contribute to the sustainable development of Ukraine's industrial sector and compliance with international standards (Amosha & Amosha, 2023). Supporting small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the industrial sector is also an important part of the recovery, as SMEs contribute to economic growth, employment and innovation. State support, the creation of industrial parks and innovation clusters will make it possible to bring together SMEs and large industrial enterprises, which will help create synergies for developing technologies and increasing production volumes. Such clusters will be able to contribute to the integration of Ukrainian industry into global supply chains and the creation of new jobs (Redzyuk, 2022). Finally, it is important to attract international investment and establish strategic partnerships with foreign companies that will ensure the modernisation of production, the introduction of new technologies and the improvement of product quality. This requires transparent institutional reforms that create favourable conditions for foreign investors. Partnerships with the countries of the European Union, the United States and international organisations such as the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the World Bank will help to implement reconstruction projects and increase the potential of Ukrainian industry to enter international markets (Lemishko et al., 2022). Creation of innovative infrastructure in old industrial regions. The creation of innovative infrastructure in Ukraine's old industrial regions is an important strategy for restoring and modernising these areas, which have traditionally depended on extractive industries and heavy manufacturing. Regions such as Donbass have been particularly affected by hostilities, and their economic transformation requires the transformation of old production facilities into centres of innovation and high-tech development. The basis of this transformation is the creation of technology parks, incubators for startups and research centres, which will contribute to the development of new industries, such as IT, green energy and advanced materials, adapted to global trends and market needs (Redzyuk, 2022). Innovative infrastructure helps to attract foreign and local investors interested in developing modern technologies and new business models. An important aspect is the creation of conditions for public-private partnerships that enable the financing and support of startups, technology companies and scientific research. These investments will contribute to the growth of highly skilled jobs and ensure the development of the local economy through the introduction of new technologies and the automation of production processes. By supporting innovative infrastructure, regions will be able to retain personnel who might otherwise migrate to more economically developed regions or abroad (Kulinich, 2023). In addition to investments in technological development, considerable attention should be paid to the modernisation of vocational training and the improvement of personnel qualifications, which are necessary for the effective operation of innovation centres. Co-operation with universities and foreign partners in organising training programmes will help to prepare specialists with modern knowledge and skills. The training of qualified personnel will also contribute to the integration of old industrial regions into international value chains, as Ukrainian enterprises will be able to better meet the requirements of foreign markets and increase their competitiveness on the world stage (Amosha & Amosha, 2023). The creation of innovative infrastructure also helps to raise the standard of living of the people who remain in these regions. Economic revitalisation based on innovative industries stimulates the development of local businesses, creates new jobs and improves the quality of social infrastructure. The long-term development of old industrial regions as centres of innovative activity has the potential to change their economic profile, reduce dependence on raw materials and ensure sustainable development that meets modern environmental and technological challenges (Lemishko et al., 2022). Coordinated support of the international community. The coordinated support of the international community is of critical importance for the successful recovery of Ukraine in the post-war period. Research indicates that effective international coordination minimises the inefficient use of resources and ensures that funding is directed to the most priority areas of reconstruction. For instance, the coordination of actions between donor countries, such as the G7 countries and international organisations, including the European Union (EU), the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), can optimise the distribution of aid and make it more accessible to Ukraine (Kistersky, 2023). The European Union is playing a key role in Ukraine's reconstruction through financial, technical and legal assistance. The EU provides funding through programmes aimed at modernising infrastructure, developing green energy and strengthening democratic institutions. Coordinating actions with the EU allows Ukraine to align national standards with European ones, which contributes to Ukraine's integration into the European economic space. This can ensure long- term stability and economic growth, opening up new Baltic Journal of Economic Studies 188 Vol. 10 No. 5, 2024 opportunities for trade and investment (Pidorycheva, 2022). The research also highlights the need to create a single institutional mechanism for coordinating and monitoring international assistance. The introduction of a centralised system will allow Ukraine to control the effectiveness of the use of funds and ensure the transparency of the process. Such a decision will also help attract new investors, as a high level of transparency and reporting is one of the key requirements of international partners. Such a structure, which will operate according to the "single window" principle, will avoid duplication of efforts and increase the efficiency of the implementation of restoration projects (Bilous & Ternushchak, 2022). Another important aspect of international assistance is technical and expert support, which includes the training of local specialists and the transfer of project management experience. The utilisation of the experience of countries that have previously confronted analogous challenges, such as post-war reconstruction in Europe, can assist Ukraine in the avoidance of recurrent missteps and the formulation of efficacious recovery strategies. The involvement of international experts can further facilitate the development of legal and institutional reforms necessary for long-term recovery (Kocherov, 2023). Accordingly, the coordinated support of the international community, including financial assistance, legal guarantees, technical assistance and expert support, is crucial for Ukraine's effective post-war recovery. This will enable Ukraine not only to rebuild its economy, but also to ensure its long-term development in the European and global economic space. Integration into European economic structures. Ukraine's integration into European economic structures is an important part of the post-war economic recovery strategy. The European Union supports Ukraine with financial, technical and expert assistance, which enables the adaptation of Ukrainian standards to European ones and also contributes to the modernisation of infrastructure, social institutions and the economy in general (Leshchenko & Leshchenko, 2023). Approximation to European norms and standards, particularly in the areas of trade, transport, energy and digitalisation, is intended to make Ukraine a full-fledged part of the European economy and create conditions for economic growth and export development. An important aspect of integration is the implementation of structural reforms in line with EU requirements, particularly in the areas of public administration, law and order and the fight against corruption. The positive experience of Western European countries, which successfully implemented recovery programmes after the Second World War, shows that economic integration into the European market contributes to the development of competitiveness and export growth. According to experts, Ukraine's European integration can also help attract new investors, as integration into the single market increases confidence in the country as a reliable economic partner (Bodnarchuk, 2023). The European experience of post-war reconstruction, particularly the implementation of the "Marshall Plan" for Western European countries, demonstrates that a comprehensive approach to reconstruction can engender stability and sustainable economic development. It is imperative for Ukraine to adopt this experience by creating its own model of economic recovery, which will combine EU financial support with internal reforms. Ukraine has the opportunity to integrate into the European Research Area (ERA), which will open the way to new technologies and innovations, stimulate the development of science- intensive industries and increase competitiveness at the global level (Pidorycheva, 2022). Finally, integration into European economic structures is also a path to social change, such as raising living standards, ensuring access to quality social services and guaranteeing law and order. The successful completion of this integration process will help Ukraine not only to modernise its economy, but also to strengthen democratic values and institutions, which will contribute to the long-term development and stability of the country (Khaustova, 2023). In light of the ongoing process of European integration and Ukraine's post-war economic recovery, the subsequent phase entails the formulation of a model that will facilitate the estimation and assessment of the nation's economic growth trajectory. The purpose of this model is to create realistic forecasts of Ukraine's GDP growth. These forecasts take into account both short-term recovery measures and long-term sustainable development strategies. This methodological approach will provide a comprehensive understanding of how various economic factors will affect the country's development in peacetime and European integration. 4. Model of Economic Recovery of Ukraine in the Post-War Period The developed model will assist in identifying the most promising avenues for the concentration of efforts and resources, and will also facilitate the assessment of opportunities for ensuring the sustainable economic growth of Ukraine in the context of its integration into the European economic space. The model's emphasis on pivotal factors, such as investment in infrastructure, international aid, and the attraction of foreign capital, is of particular significance. A significant element of the model is the analysis of the dynamics of the labour market, which takes into account demographic changes and the need for qualified personnel for new sectors of the economy. Furthermore, the model incorporates the impact Baltic Journal of Economic Studies 189 Vol. 10 No. 5, 2024 of structural reforms that enhance the investment climate and stimulate economic activity in the field of high technology and environmentally friendly production. In order to develop a mathematical model of the economic recovery of Ukraine in the post-war period, a framework was created that takes into account the key economic variables and recovery strategies described above. The purpose of developing the model is to simulate the growth trajectory of Ukraine's GDP after the cessation of hostilities, encompassing both short- term recovery and long-term sustainable growth. The model places particular emphasis on infrastructure investment, foreign aid, labour market dynamics, and structural reforms. The GDP growth equation: GDP C I G NX E Pt t t t t t t= + + + + + , where GDPt – gross domestic product in the year t , Ct – consumer spending, It – investments (both domestic and foreign), Gt � – government spending, including infrastructure restoration, NXt – net exports (exports minus imports), Et – state of the labor market in the country, Pt – total factor productivity. Investment plays an important role in the model, including both domestic and foreign investment. The model may include an investment function depending on the level of external assistance, macroeconomic stability, and political situation: I f Fdi Aid Polt t t t= + +( ), where Fdit – foreign direct investment, Aidt – international aid, Polt – degree of reforms and political stability. Changes in employment, especially refugee returns and labor reintegration, are also important for economic recovery. Therefore, the employment equation is included: E f Pop Ret Trat t t i= + +( ), where Et – the state of the labor market in the country, Popt – the total population, Rett – the return of the population from abroad, Trat – investments in education and retraining. An important element of the recovery is the implementation of structural reforms and technological innovations that increase productivity. P f Ref Innt t t= +( ),, where Pt – total factor productivity, Reft – structural reforms (in particular, anti-corruption, judicial system reforms, etc.), Innt – the level of technological progress and innovation. Thus, the general model of GDP growth can be presented as follows: GDP C f Fdi Aid Pol G NX f Pop Ret Tra f Reft t t t t t t t t i t= + + +( ) + + + + +( ) + +� IInnt( ) . GDP C f Fdi Aid Pol G NX f Pop Ret Tra f Reft t t t t t t t t i t= + + +( ) + + + + +( ) + +� IInnt( ) The model can be adapted and refined in accordance with specific data and research requirements. Furthermore, it facilitates scenario analysis, which in turn enables the assessment of the impact that a variety of political decisions and recovery strategies might have on the economic growth of Ukraine in the post- war period. In order to analyse the model of economic recovery of Ukraine in the post-war period, several scenarios are considered. These scenarios reflect possible options for the development of events depending on different political and economic conditions. The three primary scenarios (optimistic, basic and pessimistic) are delineated in Table 1. The table presents three potential economic recovery scenarios for Ukraine in the post-war period: optimistic, basic and pessimistic. The optimistic scenario is predicated on a high level of international support, effective implementation of reforms and significant return of refugees, leading to rapid economic growth and stability. The baseline scenario is a moderate option, where some reforms are implemented, but progress is limited due to a moderate level of investment and population return. The pessimistic scenario predicts low levels of aid, weak reforms and slow recovery, causing low economic growth and instability. In contrast, the optimistic scenario emphasises that effective implementation of reforms and the fight against corruption are pivotal in attracting investment and the support of international partners. It is evident from all three scenarios that the volume and structure of international aid play a pivotal role in shaping opportunities for economic recovery and innovative development. The optimistic scenario posits that the return of refugees and the development of technology can serve as catalysts for the recovery of productivity and sustainable growth. However, it is crucial to note that inadequate implementation of reforms may result in economic stagnation, elevated levels of unemployment, and social instability. To achieve this optimistic scenario, it is imperative to prioritise the effective utilisation of international aid, the implementation of transparent and comprehensive reforms, the active involvement of private investors, the support of innovative industries and the digitisation of the economy. Baltic Journal of Economic Studies 190 Vol. 10 No. 5, 2024 5. Conclusions The post-war reconstruction of Ukraine is a task of paramount importance that necessitates the concerted efforts of national authorities, the international community, and the private sector. In light of the extensive destruction and prevailing economic challenges, it is imperative to adopt a comprehensive approach that encompasses infrastructure reconstruction, strategic restoration of industrial capacity, active attraction of foreign investment and support from international partners. The successful implementation of these measures will ensure economic stability and create conditions for long-term growth. Restoring infrastructure, especially in the transport and energy sectors, is a fundamental step in rebuilding the economy. These projects should not only restore lost capacity, but also modernise it to meet modern standards and environmental requirements. Infrastructure investment can not only stimulate the economy in the short term, but also provide a reliable basis for future development. Integration into European economic structures is also important. Close co-operation with the EU opens up new export opportunities, attracts technology and improves the standards of the business environment. In addition, the creation of innovative infrastructure in old industrial regions will reduce economic disparities and increase Ukraine's competitiveness on the international market. The development of innovation clusters will provide additional growth opportunities and stimulate the transition to the knowledge economy. The support of the international community, which can provide the necessary financial and technical resources for reconstruction and help implement structural reforms, is also a key factor for success. The support of foreign partners will contribute to the implementation of transparent and effective management processes, create a favourable investment climate and strengthen confidence in Ukraine as a reliable partner. In general, under the conditions of post-war recovery, Ukraine has a unique opportunity to turn challenges into opportunities for sustainable economic growth. Implementing the measures described in this article will create the economic conditions for a stable and prosperous future, integrated into the European and global economic environment. Table 1 Scenarios of economic recovery of Ukraine in the post-war period Optimistic scenario Basic scenario Pessimistic scenario Prerequisites High level of international assistance and foreign investment. Major foreign partners invest heavily in infrastructure projects and support for small and medium-sized businesses. The government is implementing effective anti-corruption and judicial reforms, which increases investor confidence. Rapid return of refugees and their successful reintegration into the labour market. Intensive implementation of innovations and digitalisation in the public sector and industry. Moderate level of international assistance and foreign investment, mainly in critical infrastructure. Partial implementation of reforms that improve the business climate but do not fully address the problem of corruption. Gradual return of refugees, with a part of the population remaining abroad. The introduction of new technologies is limited due to a lack of qualified personnel and funding. Limited international assistance and low levels of foreign investment due to political instability and high levels of corruption. Reforms have not been implemented or have been partially implemented, scaring away investors and leading to low public sector efficiency. Few refugees return, and those who do face difficulties in finding work. Innovation and digitalisation are hampered by a lack of funding and skilled personnel. Expected result GDP Growth. High GDP growth due to increased investment and productivity. Employment. Reduction of unemployment through the return of labour and retraining of the population. Trade balance. Export growth driven by innovation and the revival of agriculture and industry. General stability. Ukraine achieves stable economic growth and becomes an attractive partner for international investors. GDP Growth. Moderate GDP growth due to limited investment and a gradual recovery in productivity. Employment. Employment is growing, but not at pre-conflict levels, putting pressure on social programmes. Trade balance. The trade balance is improving, but dependence on imports remains. Overall stability. The economy is stabilising, but risks remain due to the weak implementation of reforms. GDP growth. Low economic growth or even stagnation due to lack of investment and low productivity. Employment. High unemployment, leading to social tensions. Trade balance. Significant dependence on imports due to low domestic productivity. Overall stability. 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