Baltic Journal of Economic Studies 364 Vol. 10 No. 5, 2024 This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 4.0 1 Odesa Polytechnic National University, Ukraine (corresponding author) E-mail: v.filippov@op.edu.ua ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4429-7582 ResearcherID: AAV-5518-2020 2 Odesa Polytechnic National University, Ukraine E-mail: i.a.bashinskaya@op.edu.ua ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4143-9277 ResearcherID: J-5312-2013 3 Odesa Polytechnic National University, Ukraine E-mail: yangulov@op.edu.ua ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8699-8673 DOI: https://doi.org/10.30525/2256-0742/2024-10-5-364-373 EXPLORING THE INFLUENCES ON DISPLACED CITIZENS' DECISION TO REPATRIATE: A CLASSIFICATION OF POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE FACTORS Volodymyr Filippov1, Iryna Bashynska2, Elvin Yangulov3 Abstract. The article focuses on the study and analysis of factors that have a decisive influence on the process of decision making regarding the return of citizens to their country after forced displacement caused by various crisis situations. As a result of the Russian invasion, Ukraine has found itself at the centre of significant migration processes, which have not only humanitarian but also socio-economic consequences for the state and its population. In many countries around the world, similar processes have been triggered not only by war, but also by natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods or hurricanes, forcing people to temporarily leave their homes. The research aims to identify both positive and negative factors influencing the decision of Ukrainians to return home, and to compare this with international experience, particularly in relation to natural disasters. In order to achieve the research objectives, a comprehensive interdisciplinary approach was applied, based on the analysis of a wide range of scientific works and studies in the field of migration processes. Moreover, the case-study method was employed to examine specific examples from various countries where citizens confronted analogous circumstances and made decisions regarding returning or resettling. The study conducted an in-depth analysis of the social, economic and political factors that play a role in the decision-making process regarding people's return. A classification method was applied to systematise the data, allowing for the structuring of factors and the identification of key influences. As a result of the research, several important positive and negative factors were identified that influence the decision to return. Positive factors include the improvement in the security situation, government programmes for displaced persons and the prospects for economic growth in the country as it begins to recover. At the same time, negative factors include continued military aggression, uncertainty about infrastructure reconstruction and a lack of social guarantees. It is important to note that international experience, particularly from countries affected by natural disasters, highlights the significance of stability and restoring trust in local authorities and infrastructure. The results of the study have significant practical implications for the formulation of government policies and international organisations that aim to support the process of returning citizens in post-conflict and post-disaster periods. In particular, the conclusions can serve as the foundation for creating socio-economic reintegration and adaptation programs for citizens who were forced to leave their homes. Furthermore, the data can be utilised to develop programmes that encourage displaced persons to return and further integrate into the economy. The research's originality lies in its synthesis of analyses of the impact of military conflicts and natural disasters on migration processes and decisions to return. The innovation of the work lies in the creation of a novel classification of factors that considers both the Ukrainian context and international experience. The research has the potential to serve as a foundational basis for further academic studies and as a practical instrument for the formulation of state policies that are aimed at the effective management of migration processes in the aftermath of crises. Keywords: migration processes, population return, military conflict, natural disasters, positive factors, negative factors, social reintegration, repatriation, economic recovery. JEL Classification: J61, O15, D74 Baltic Journal of Economic Studies 365 Vol. 10 No. 5, 2024 1. Introduction Mass population displacement is one of the key social and economic challenges facing countries affected by crises such as wars or natural disasters. With the onset of the Russia’s invasion, Ukraine has experienced unprecedented migration processes, with millions of citizens forced to leave their homes in search of safety both within the country and abroad. Similar processes have been observed in other countries that have experienced armed conflict or natural disasters such as earthquakes or hurricanes. In this context, studying the factors that influence the return of populations after a crisis is crucial for developing effective strategies to restore the demographic structure, economy and social stability of a country. The novelty of this research lies in its attempt to comprehensively analyse the factors that influence citizens' decisions to return to their country after forced displacement. The study of Ukraine is particularly significant because it allows parallels to be drawn with other similar situations around the world, where countries have faced both military conflicts and natural disasters. Analysis of these situations helps to assess the impact of positive and negative factors on the return of populations, which can be useful in the development of government assistance programmes. The aim of this research is to classify the factors that have a positive and negative impact on people's decisions to return to the country after a crisis. To achieve this goal, the following research objectives were set: – To review the literature and previous studies on crisis-induced migration; – to compare the Ukrainian experience with international cases, in particular military conflicts and natural disasters, to identify key positive and negative factors that influence people's decision to return; – to choose tools for classifying factors of influence and demonstrate an example of an algorithm for their interaction; – to justify the chosen approach and, based on the results obtained, to propose recommendations for the government and international organisations to stimulate the return of the population. The research methodology is founded upon an interdisciplinary approach, encompassing the analysis of literature sources, a review of real-world cases, and the classification of influencing factors. The material is presented in a logical manner, with a gradual analysis of the context commencing with a general review of migration processes during crises, continuing with the classification of factors, and concluding with a comparative analysis of international experience. 2. Literature Review and Previous Research Migration processes resulting from crisis situations such as wars or natural disasters have long been the subject of research in sociology, economics, demography and related fields. In the global context, mass migration is typically seen as a response to threats to life and safety, economic instability, or a lack of social support in areas affected by conflict or disaster. However, the decision of people to return home once the situation has stabilised depends on a wide range of factors that have been explored in various academic works. One of the key areas of research among global scholars is the study of the impact of social and economic factors on migration processes. For example, the work of Castles and Miller (2009) emphasises that economic stability and the possibility of restoring livelihoods are the main factors that motivate people to stay in or return to conflict zones after a crisis. Similar conclusions can be found in studies of the aftermath of natural disasters, notably in Dadush and Weil's (2022) research, where it is found that people are more likely to return to their homes if there is a clear and prompt government response to restore infrastructure. In the context of armed conflict, such as the war in Ukraine, the impact of political factors is particularly significant. Research by Golub, Demchenko, and Danchenko (2024) has shown that political stability and security in the region, as well as guarantees for the protection of the rights of displaced persons, strongly influence the decision to return. The existence of government programmes to support displaced persons and social reintegration initiatives also plays an important role, as demonstrated by the work of Berveno and Moskvina (2024), who studied the reintegration processes of Ukrainians in the UK and across Europe. The study of migration processes in the context of post-conflict situations, natural disasters and the COVID-19 pandemic reveals other aspects of the problem. The work of L. Constant (2021), I. Bashynska (2021; 2024), V. Filippov (2023) and Y. Malynovska (2023) examines the impact of conflict and natural disasters on people's decisions to leave high-risk areas and return after the crisis. The authors find that the restoration of infrastructure and the provision of basic needs such as water, electricity and healthcare are crucial to people's return. The UNHCR (2023) and other global organisations have also been actively researching the issue of voluntary return to Ukraine. In this context, the concept of repatriation plays a crucial role, referring to the process of returning citizens to their country of origin after a period of forced displacement due to crises such as war or natural disasters. Baltic Journal of Economic Studies 366 Vol. 10 No. 5, 2024 Repatriation is the process of returning citizens to their country of origin after a prolonged stay abroad, which may have been caused by various reasons such as war, persecution, natural disasters or other crises. Repatriation can involve both individuals and large groups of people who have been forced to leave their homes due to adverse or life-threatening circumstances. The definition of the term "repatriation" includes several important aspects: 1) In the context of migration processes, the concept of repatriation is frequently examined through the lens of international law. This legal framework stipulates that nations must facilitate the return of their citizens from foreign countries and provide the requisite support for their reintegration. For instance, the 1951 UN Refugee Convention ensures the right of refugees to return to their country of origin voluntarily. 2) The social and economic context, where repatriation typically requires significant resources and efforts from both the host country and international organisations to ensure a safe and dignified return. An essential part of repatriation is the creation of conditions for the reintegration of individuals, including housing, employment and social services. In the context of Ukraine, following the full-scale invasion on February 24, repatriation has become particularly important due to the large number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) and refugees abroad as a result of the Russia’s invasion. Repatriation processes require a comprehensive approach, as a significant number of Ukrainians who have left the country are refugees or temporarily displaced persons, which greatly complicates their return without the necessary conditions. In the context of contemporary events pertaining to the war in eastern Ukraine and the Russia’s invasion in 2022, Ukrainian researchers have been increasingly focusing on the topic of repatriation. The issue of citizens returning to the country after forced displacement has become a central topic in many academic and applied studies. Olena Malynovska (2024) is a leading researcher in this field, who has conducted extensive research on Ukraine's migration policy, including the repatriation of Ukrainians. In her works, she focuses on the challenges of the state's migration policy, the difficulties of reintegrating displaced persons, and the role of international organisations in the process of citizens' return. A significant aspect of her research involves the analysis of social, economic, and political factors that influence the repatriation process, in addition to the formulation of recommendations for the enhancement of state policy in this domain. A number of studies have been conducted that examine the psychological aspects of citizens returning to the country after long-term stays abroad. The focus of these studies is on stress factors and challenges of social adaptation. These studies underscore the significance of providing psychological support to returnees and the necessity of integrating these components into state-sponsored initiatives (Roman, 2020; Panchenko, 2022; Tucha, 2022). In addition, analytical materials from state institutions, including the Verkhovna Rada and the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, as well as information agencies such as UNIAN (2023), should also be considered. These publications analyse the economic consequences of repatriation, with a particular focus on the impact of a significant return of Ukrainians on the labour market, social programmes and the economic recovery of conflict-affected regions. The studies under consideration here focus on the role that economic incentives can play in encouraging citizens to return, as well as the importance of restoring infrastructure and creating new jobs. Consequently, Ukrainian scholars provide a multifaceted analysis of the repatriation process, focusing on the social, psychological and economic aspects of displaced persons' return. Their research underscores the significance of a comprehensive approach to confronting the challenges of repatriation and the necessity for the formulation of state policies that encompass the multifaceted nature of this process. In general, the most pertinent academic studies on repatriation are those which analyse state programmes that support returnees, international experiences of reintegrating displaced persons, and the socio- economic consequences of returning populations to countries affected by crisis. Repatriation is a multifaceted process that necessitates not only the physical return of individuals but also the facilitation of their social, economic, and cultural adaptation to the altered conditions in their country of origin. A review of global literature indicates that the decision to return in the aftermath of crises is influenced by various factors, which can be broadly categorised as social, economic, political, and infrastructural. The impact of these factors varies depending on the specific type of crisis, whether it is an armed conflict or a natural disaster. 3. Classification of Factors Affecting Repatriation The process of repatriation is multifaceted and is influenced by a number of factors that can either encourage citizens to return to their country or impede this process. Broadly speaking, these factors can be categorised into the following domains: economic, social, political, security, and infrastructural. Each of these categories possesses unique characteristics that exert a distinct influence on individuals' decisions to repatriate following forced displacement. 1) Economic factors. These factors are of paramount importance in the decision-making process regarding Baltic Journal of Economic Studies 367 Vol. 10 No. 5, 2024 repatriation. Typically, repatriates elect to return when economic opportunities emerge in their country of origin, such as the creation of new employment opportunities, wage growth, and improved business conditions. Furthermore, government economic support programmes for displaced persons, including financial assistance and labour market reintegration programmes, can influence the decision to return. The prevailing economic stability within the region of repatriation is a pivotal factor, as uncertainty or economic adversity can act as deterrents to return. 2) Social factors. It is evident that these factors also play a significant role in the repatriation process. This category encompasses support from family and community, as well as the availability of well- developed social services such as healthcare, education, and social protection. Empirical evidence indicates that individuals are more inclined to return if they perceive support from their social networks and the community with which they identify. Furthermore, the influence of cultural and ethnic ties with the country of origin has been demonstrated to stimulate repatriation, especially in cases where social stability is restored and there are positive prospects for integration. 3) Political factors. Political conditions in the country of origin also have a significant impact on the repatriation process. Political stability, guarantees of displaced persons' rights and the existence of government programmes to support returnees are crucial for many people who decide to return. The political situation can either encourage or discourage repatriation: if there is a threat of renewed conflict or instability, people may be less inclined to return. International support and the political will of the state to restore peace are also important. 4) Security factors. Security is a key factor, especially in the context of repatriation during or after war. People will only return if they feel that their lives and property are safe. This means that a clear plan for restoring security in the country, including de-mining, restoring law and order and re-establishing the functioning of law enforcement agencies, is essential. In cases of ongoing conflict or the potential for new threats, many displaced people remain in temporary locations or seek permanent refuge in other countries. 5) Infrastructural factors. Infrastructure restoration is another pivotal factor in the successful repatriation of displaced populations. The absence of access to basic services, including but not limited to water, electricity, transportation, and medical care, has been demonstrated to impede the process of return. The decision of individuals to return is often influenced by the state of infrastructure in their respective home areas. The speed and efficiency of reconstruction, as well as the involvement of state and international organisations in the recovery process, are significant factors in this regard. A more refined categorisation of the factors influencing repatriation facilitates a more profound comprehension of the motivations and impediments that hinder the return of displaced individuals to their country of origin. Each of these factors is important for formulating a comprehensive strategy to support repatriates, which should take into account the economic, social, political, security, and infrastructural aspects of the return. A detailed analysis of the factors influencing the repatriation process determines that each of them has both positive (p-factors) and negative (n-factors). Positive aspects facilitate the return of people and create favourable conditions for their reintegration, while negative factors can hinder this process and raise concerns about safety, stability and well-being. All of these factors are interrelated and have a complex influence on people's decisions to return. In order to better understand these influences, the classification of positive and negative aspects of each group of factors is presented in Table 1. Based on the data in Table 1, different types of graphs can be used to visualise the impact of positive and negative factors on repatriation. 4. Classification of Interrelationships Between Factors Affecting Repatriation In order to analyse the impact of various factors on the repatriation process, a comprehensive approach may be employed, incorporating both an influence matrix and a Venn diagram. This approach facilitates a more nuanced understanding of the factors that exert a decisive influence on an individual's decision to return to their country of origin. Additionally, it enables the identification of interrelationships among diverse groups of factors: 1) Venn diagram. The factors can be represented as several intersecting circles: economic, social, political, security and infrastructure. The intersecting sectors represent the sum of all the positive influences that encourage return, minus the negative influences from all the intersecting groups. This helps to show how different factors are interconnected. 2) The influence matrix allows for a quantitative assessment of the weight of each factor group, both in positive and negative aspects. Each group of factors, such as economic, social, political, security and infrastructure, is rated according to its positive and negative influence on the repatriation decision-making process. Using the influence matrix, it is possible to assess the overall impact of each group of factors, which helps to identify the main barriers or incentives to return. It is important to note that a high accumulation of Baltic Journal of Economic Studies 368 Vol. 10 No. 5, 2024 negative ratings can significantly influence a person's decision not to return, even in the presence of strong positive factors. The assessment of influence groups on the decision to return is presented in Table 2. It demonstrates how each group of factors (economic, social, political, security, and infrastructural) exerts a dual influence, both positive and negative. Through the utilisation of a Likert scale in this matrix, the evaluation of factors enables the discernment of which groups exert a more pronounced positive or negative influence on the decision to return. The collection of such information can be facilitated by conducting sociological surveys, which are designed to gather data regarding the various factors influencing repatriation. In the initial phase, subjects are invited to participate in a survey that assesses the influence of each factor group (economic, social, political, security, infrastructural) in two directions: – Positive factors, where the score is from 0 to 5, where 0 means no positive impact and 5 means maximum positive impact on the decision to return. – Negative factors, where the score ranges from 0 to -5, where 0 means no negative impact and -5 means maximum negative impact. The survey data is presented in the form of a heat map, which provides a visual representation of the overall impact of each group of factors. On this heat map, the colour intensity reflects the rating scores: 1) The more positive the value (closer to 5), the warmer the colour (for example, from light yellow to red). 2) The more negative the value (closer to -5), the colder the colour (from light blue to dark blue). This visual representation facilitates expeditious identification of the groups of factors exerting the most significant influence on a person's decision to return, both positively and negatively. The influence matrix quantitatively assesses the weight of each factor group in both the positive and negative aspects. The evaluation of each factor group, including economic, social, political, security, and infrastructural factors, is conducted based on its influence on the repatriation decision-making process. A number of positive factors have been identified as indicators of opportunities that could stimulate a return. These factors include economic recovery, access to housing, improved security, and social support. Negative factors include elements that hinder the repatriation process: political or economic instability, destruction of infrastructure, ongoing military operations, etc. The next step is to aggregate the scores for each influence group to obtain an overall picture that reflects Table 1 Positive and negative aspects of factors influencing the decision to repatriate Influence groups Positive influence (p-factors) Negative influence (n-factors) A. Economic A.p.1. Economic recovery A.p.2. Financial incentives A.p.3. New job opportunities A.p.4. Government support programs A.p.5. Investment and grant programs A.p.6. Wage growth A.n.1. Lack of economic stability A.n.2. Increased taxes, fines A.n.3. High unemployment A.n.4. Inflation A.n.5. Lack of investments A.n.6. Low level of income B. Social B.p.1. Availability of social services B.p.2. Community support B.p.3. Access to education/healthcare B.p.4. Development of social programs B.p.5. Support for family ties B.p.6. Repatriation status benefits B.n.1. Insufficient community support B.n.2. Limited access to social services B.n.3. Breakdown of family ties B.n.4. Discrimination (against displaced persons) B.n.5. Social isolation B.n.6. Difficulty integrating into society C. Political C.p.1. Political stability C.p.2. Guarantees of rights for displaced persons C.p.3. Government reintegration programs C.p.4. International support C.p.5. Legal assistance availability C.p.6. Transparent governance C.n.1. Political instability C.n.2. Corruption C.n.3. Lack of rights guarantees C.n.4. Weak government authority C.n.5. Non-transparent decisions C.n.6. Legislative pressure for return D. Security D.p.1. Improved security situation D.p.2. Restoration of law and order D.p.3. Reduced crime rates D.p.4. Absence of new threats D.p.5. International peacekeeping initiatives D.p.6. Legal reforms (e.g., firearms permits) D.n.1. Ongoing military conflict D.n.2. Threats to life and property D.n.3. High crime levels D.n.4. Terrorist threats D.n.5. Lack of law enforcement control D.n.6. Forced conscription E. Infrastructure E.p.1. Housing restoration opportunities E.p.2. Access to social infrastructure E.p.3. Transport infrastructure repair E.p.4. Development of infrastructure projects E.p.5. Stable water and energy supply E.p.6. Government housing renewal programs E.n.1. Destruction of social infrastructure E.n.2. Housing destruction or threat E.n.3. Lack of basic services E.n.4. Slow reconstruction E.n.5. Transport issues E.n.6. Energy grid accidents Baltic Journal of Economic Studies 369 Vol. 10 No. 5, 2024 the strength of influence of each factor group on the decision to repatriate: 1) The sum of the positive scores shows how strongly the group encourages people to return. 2) The sum of the negative scores indicates how much the group hinders the process. 3) The total score for each group, combining the positive and negative factors, shows whether the influence is red (positive) or blue (negative). Based on Table 2, an influence matrix is generated (Table 3). Using this influence matrix, it is possible to assess the overall impact of each group of factors, which helps to identify the main barriers or incentives to return. It is important to note that a high accumulation of negative ratings can significantly influence a person's decision not to return, even in the presence of strong positive factors. In order to analyse the impact of different factors on the return process, a comprehensive approach can be used, including both the influence matrix and a Venn diagram. This allows for a more detailed understanding of which specific factors have a decisive influence on an individual's decision to return home, and helps to reveal interrelationships between different groups of factors. The Venn diagram adds a new level of detail to the analysis by showing how different groups of factors can overlap and interact. This is particularly important for understanding how several factors from different groups can simultaneously influence the decision to repatriate. The best way to do this is to use a Venn diagram for 5 groups, formed with ellipses, created by Branko Grünbaum (1984), an example of which is shown in Figure 1-a. The construction of a Venn diagram is proposed as a subsequent step, upon the basis of the obtained data. The diagram will represent each factor group (economic, social, political, security, and infrastructural) as a separate coloured sector. The overlapping Table 2 Assessment of groups influencing the decision to return Influence groups Positive influence (factors) Negative influence (factors) Factor name (or number) p-factor Rating from 5 to 0* Average rating Factor name (or number) n-factor Rating from 0 to -5 Average rating A. Economic A.p.1 A.n.1 … … A.p.6 A.n.6 B. Social B.p.1 B.n.1 … … B.p.6 B.n.6 C. Political C.p.1 C.n.1 … … C.p.6 C.n.6 D. Security D.p.1 D.n.1 … … D.p.6 D.n.6 E. Infrastructure E.p.1 E.n.1 … … E.p.6 E.n.6 *According to the Likert scale, 5 represents maximum influence, and 0 represents no influence. *According to the Likert scale, 0 represents no influence, and -5 represents maximum influence. Table 3 Matrix of influence on the decision to repatriate Influence scale Influence groups Positive influence (p-factors) Negative influence (n-factors) Result s (sum of p + n factors) 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 A. Economic A.p A.n A.s B. Social B.p B.n B.s C. Political C.p C.n C.s D. Security D.p D.n D.s E. Infrastructural E.p E.n E.s Baltic Journal of Economic Studies 370 Vol. 10 No. 5, 2024 combinations of factors will be marked with colours based on the heatmap, thus allowing the different intersections of influences to be visualised. The colours of the sectors in the Venn diagram reflect the overall influence of each group of factors on a person's decision, as outlined below: 1) If the sum of the scores in a sector is positive, the colour becomes "warmer," indicating a positive influence of this combination of factors on the decision to return (Figure 1-b). 2) Conversely, if the sum of the scores is negative, the sector acquires a "cooler" colour, indicating that certain combinations of factors discourage a person from making the decision to return (Figure 1-c). For instance, a combination of interconnected positive economic and social factors may serve as a more potent motivator for return than an isolated economic factor. Conversely, the presence of adverse factors, such as political instability, has the potential to neutralise the positive influence of economic growth, particularly when these factors intersect. The analysis of these intersections facilitates a more comprehensive evaluation of the overall sufficiency of factors in decision-making. The employment of the influence matrix and Venn diagram facilitates a comprehensive analysis of the relative importance of each factor and the interconnections between them. This is imperative for ascertaining the sufficiency of factors in determining a repatriation decision. For instance, if the combined positive influence of economic, social, and security factors significantly outweighs the negative impact of political or infrastructural problems, a person is more likely to lean toward returning. Conversely, a robust negative impact from security and political factors may result in a delay in the decision to return, even in the presence of appealing economic opportunities. The utilisation of these instruments facilitates a more profound comprehension of the pivotal factors influencing repatriation, and the manner in which their interplay impacts the decision as a whole. This will assist in the creation of more effective strategies for supporting repatriation at both the state and international levels. This approach offers a visual representation of the conditions that motivate an individual to consider repatriation, emphasising the factors that exert the most significant influence on this decision. The employment of a Venn diagram, with its delineation of coloured sectors, serves to indicate the critical points where positive factors prevail, and which factors require special attention to enhance the conditions for return. 5. Example of Classification and Interaction of Influence Factors In order to illustrate the process of constructing a Venn diagram based on real data, an analysis is conducted using a set of average influence values calculated from a sociological survey. The following five main groups of factors were used: A (economic), B (social), C (political), D (security), and E (infrastructural). Individual ratings were determined on a scale from -5 to 5. The survey was conducted among 87 respondents. The input values are as follows: – A (economic): 3.2; – B (social): -1.5; – C (political): 2.1; – D (security): -4.3; – E (infrastructural): 3.9. The subsequent analysis involved the calculation of the mean value for each combination of factors, encompassing the categories of pair, triple, quadruple, and full overlap. For example: – The combination AB (economic and social factors) has an average value of 0.85, indicating a moderately positive influence, as the positive economic impact significantly offsets the negative social impact; – the combination BC (social and political factors) has an average value of 0.3, which is also slightly positive, indicating the influence of political factors that overlap with social factors; 1-a) Venn diagram 1-b) Positive (p-factors) 1-c) Negative (n-factors) Figure 1. Venn diagram for 5 sets by Branko Grünbaum (positive and negative factors) Baltic Journal of Economic Studies 371 Vol. 10 No. 5, 2024 – the combination ACDE (economic, political, security and infrastructure factors) has an average value of 1.23, showing the dominance of positive economic and infrastructure factors over negative security factors; – this calculation is made for all combinations (Figure 2a); – the overall result for the combination of all five factors (ABCDE) is 0.68, which means that the overall influence of all economic, social, political, security and infrastructure factors is positive, although quite moderate. The Venn diagram offers a visual representation of the factors and their combinations that exert the greatest influence on the decision to repatriate (see Figure 2-b). For instance, if combinations involving economic and infrastructural factors demonstrate high positive values, this could signify that these domains are pivotal for people's return and necessitate increased government attention. Conversely, negative values for security or social factors imply that these aspects are critical obstacles to repatriation and must be addressed as a priority. The creation of a Venn diagram based on the mean values from the influence matrix provides a comprehensive view of how various factors impact the decision to repatriate and helps identify priority areas for action by the government and international organisations. This approach offers a visual demonstration of the conditions that would render a person willing to return to their country of origin, and the factors that exert the most significant influence on that decision. The employment of a Venn diagram, with coloured sectors denoting specific points at which positive factors prevail, serves to highlight these critical areas and identify the factors that require special attention to improve the conditions for return. The state is able to develop targeted support programs for repatriates, with a focus on the factor groups exhibiting the most significant negative influence, based on the results. For instance, if security concerns are identified as the primary deterrent, the government may allocate resources to enhance security measures and restore law and order. Conversely, positive factors that encourage repatriation can be reinforced through the implementation of government-supported programs in economic or social spheres. 6. Conclusions The present study examined the key factors that influence people's decision to return to their country after forced migration caused by crises such as war or natural disasters. The research was grounded in an analysis of the impact of five main groups of factors (economic, social, political, security, and infrastructural) and their interaction in the decision- making process for repatriation. Repatriation is a complex process that is influenced by interrelated factors of different nature. No single factor can be viewed in isolation, as people assess the situation through the interplay of economic opportunities, political stability, social conditions, security and access to infrastructure. Therefore, an approach that takes into account the interplay of these factors is crucial to understanding the motivations for return. The study found that economic and infrastructural factors have the greatest positive impact on people's 2-a) Venn diagram 2-b) Calculation of indicators Figure 2. Example of a Venn diagram with test data E EA CE CBE EB CDE 3,9 3,55 3 1,5 1,2 0,57 A CAE AC ABC ADE ABDE 3,2 3,07 2,65 1,27 0,93 0,33 C ABCE EAB ACDE AB BC 2,1 1,93 1,87 1,23 0,85 0,3 B BCD ABD AD BCDE ACD -1,5 -1,23 -0,87 -0,55 0,05 0,33 D BD CD BDE DE ABCD -4,3 -2,9 -1,1 -0,63 -0,2 -0,12 Baltic Journal of Economic Studies 372 Vol. 10 No. 5, 2024 decision to return. Economic recovery, job creation and access to basic infrastructure services (such as transport, electricity and water) are key factors in stimulating return. People are willing to return when they see prospects for economic recovery and infrastructure development. Despite positive changes in the economic and infrastructure sectors, the lack of security remains a serious obstacle to return. Even if other factors are positive, people are unlikely to return if they do not feel safe. Restoring law and order, stabilising the situation and providing security are crucial to attracting displaced people. Political stability and social inclusion also play an important role. People return to their country of origin when they have confidence in political stability, the availability of government support programmes and guarantees of their rights. In addition, social ties and community support are important factors that can motivate someone to return. However, if social support or government reintegration programmes are inadequate, people may stay abroad for fear of a difficult adjustment. Government initiatives to support the process of repatriation require active co-operation with international organisations. International assistance in the restoration of infrastructure, the assurance of security, and the support of political stability can be a decisive factor in the stimulation of the return of displaced persons. International experience in situations of a similar nature (for example, natural disasters or armed conflicts in other countries) demonstrates that external support can significantly accelerate the process of repatriation. In order to facilitate successful repatriation, it is essential to formulate a comprehensive state policy that considers all the relevant factors. This policy should encompass economic incentives, the restoration of security, infrastructure development, and the provision of social guarantees for displaced persons. The coordination of these various elements is paramount for the effective facilitation of repatriation. Further research in the field of repatriation and migration processes offers a wide range of areas that require deeper study and scientific substantiation, in particular: – Modelling the behaviour of displaced persons and developing models that predict their decisions based on key factors will allow for more effective planning of state strategies to support repatriation; – analysis of psychological aspects, such as fear and stress, will help to develop psychological support programmes for displaced persons, which will facilitate their return; – development of digital technologies and platforms to support displaced people, integration of such technologies into the Diia app can facilitate the repatriation process by providing information, resources and communication tools to engage with governments and international organisations; – еxamination of the long-term impact of repatriation on the economy, and research on the economic impact of repatriation on the labour market and social services will help assess how the return of displaced persons affects economic development; – аdaptation of international experience and analysis of successful international practices in the field of repatriation will help to adapt them to the specific conditions of countries affected by conflicts and disasters. While the studies under discussion are particularly relevant in the context of Ukraine, for example, they may also be of importance in relation to Turkey and Syria, which suffered from earthquakes in February 2023. The study of environmental migration and climate change may therefore be important. The development of strategies to support migrants affected by natural disasters may be vital. A successful repatriation process therefore requires a multidisciplinary approach that takes into account all aspects, from the economy to security. Only a comprehensive solution to the problems can ensure the return of the population and facilitate the further development of the country. Funding. This research is supported by the project “Managing Skilled Workforce Risks: The Impact of War, Digitalization, and Smartization” (No. 0103U004780), funded by the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine. References: Castles, S., & Miller, M. (2009). 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