




































BANGLADESH JOURNAL OF MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH 10(4) (2025), 42-51 

42 

        MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH 
          BJMSR VOL 10 NO 4 (2025) P-ISSN 2687-850X E-ISSN 2687-8518 

         Available online at https://www.cribfb.com 

     Journal homepage: https://www.cribfb.com/journal/index.php/BJMSR 

                                                                                                                                                                                                    Published by CRIBFB, USA 
                                                                                                                                     

FUTURE SCENARIOS AND FORECASTS FOR THE EVOLUTION OF 

ACCOUNTING AND AUDITING IN UKRAINE POST-WAR                                                          
 

 Nataliia Ponomarova (a)1   Alla Mykhalkiv (b)   Tetiana Kostash (c)  Vasyl Andrusiak (d)   Olena Dovzhyk (e) 
 

(a) Associate Professor, Department of Accounting, Audit and Taxation, Faculty of Economics and Management, Khmelnytskyi National 

University, Khmelnytskyi, Ukraine; E-mail: ponomarovan@khmnu.edu.ua  
(b) Associate Professor, Department of Accounting, Analysis and Audit, Faculty of Economics, Yuriy Fedkovych Chernivtsi National University, 

Chernivtsi, Ukraine; E-mail: a.myhalkiv@chnu.edu.ua  
(c) Associate Professor, Department of Accounting, Analysis and Audit, Faculty of Economics, Yuriy Fedkovych Chernivtsi National University, 

Chernivtsi, Ukraine; E-mail: t.kostash@chnu.edu.ua  
 (d) Associate Professor, Department of Accounting and Taxation, Faculty of Economics and Entrepreneurship, Uman National University, Uman, 

Ukraine; E-mail: andrysak@ukr.net  
(e) Associate Professor, Department of Accounting and Taxation, Faculty of Economics and Management, Sumy National Agrarian University, 

Sumy, Ukraine; E-mail: lgamanenko@ukr.net  
        

 
A R T I C L E I N F O 

 
 

Article History: 

 

Received: 26th February 2025 

Reviewed & Revised: 26th February 

to 17th June 2025 
Accepted: 18th June 2025 

Published: 20th June 2025 

 
Keywords: 

 
Accounting Transformation, Post-Conflict 

Recovery, Financial Transparency, Auditing 

Methodologies, Economic Resilience, 

Forecast, Auditing, Ukraine 

 

 
JEL Classification Codes: 

 

      F20, M10, D24       
 

 

      Peer-Review Model:  

 

      External peer review was done through  

      double-blind method.        

 
A B S T R A C T      

 
Scenario analysis is widely applied in strategic economic planning to explore alternative futures under 

varying assumptions and uncertainties. Originating from decision theory, systems thinking, and 

complexity science, it supports informed judgment in uncertain environments. Despite its broad 

application, previous research on accounting and auditing reforms has predominantly concentrated on 

stable economies, with minimal emphasis on countries recovering from conflict. This study examines the 

future trajectories of accounting and auditing practices in post-war Ukraine using a scenario analysis 

framework. Data were collected through the Delphi method, incorporating expert interviews and survey 

questionnaires. Analytical techniques included the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) 

and Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM), supplemented by bootstrapping 

for result validation. The analysis reveals that Scenario 1, referred to as "Digital Reinvention," has a 

statistically significant impact on the projected development of accounting and auditing in Ukraine's 

post-war context. In contrast, Scenarios 2 and 3, labeled "Gradual Compliance" and "Regulatory 

Stagnation," do not exhibit significant associations with the evolution of the field. The findings indicate 

that the three exogenous variables together explain approximately 41.2% of the total variance in the 

endogenous variable, demonstrating a moderate predictive capacity of the model. This suggests that 

Ukraine’s post-conflict financial landscape is likely to be influenced predominantly by digital 

transformation, institutional modernization, full adoption of International Financial Reporting 

Standards (IFRS), and the implementation of artificial intelligence and blockchain technologies to 

enhance financial transparency and audit reliability in the emerging economic environment. 

 
 

© 2025 by the authors. Licensee CRIBFB, USA. This open-access article is distributed under the 

terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license 
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0).  

            

 

INTRODUCTION 

Ukraine's accounting and auditing systems have been transformed due to the war and the postwar reconstruction. Previously, 

Ukraine has been trying to move towards convergence with the international financial reporting standards in the process of 

European integration. However, the war has led to significant changes in the economic stability, regulatory environment 

and corporate governance (Mehran & Stulz, 2007). Demolition of the physical facilities, loss of investors’ interest, and 

sanctions on Russia have devastated Ukraine's financial sector and, therefore, its accounting and auditing (Umut, 2023). 

However, according to Kocherov et al. (2023), Ukraine will have advantages and disadvantages in the post-war economic 

situation. Economic reconstruction will be a process of considerable financial discipline and sound auditing to guarantee the 

proper use of the funds injected into the economy for reconstruction. Furthermore, the war has also exposed the weaknesses of 

Ukraine's financial regulatory system, and therefore, changes are needed to enhance corporate governance, risk management, 

and compliance with international accounting standards. Also, the war has fast-forwarded the need for digital transformation 

                                                      
1Corresponding author: ORCID ID: 0000-0002-4076-246X  
© 2025 by the authors. Hosting by CRIBFB. Peer review under responsibility of CRIBFB, USA.  

https://doi.org/10.46281/bsdht986 

 
To cite this article: Ponomarova, N., Mykhalkiv, A., Kostash, T., Andrusiak, V., & Dovzhyk, O. (2025). FUTURE SCENARIOS AND FORECASTS FOR 

THE EVOLUTION OF ACCOUNTING AND AUDITING IN UKRAINE POST-WAR. Bangladesh Journal of Multidisciplinary Scientific Research, 

10(4), 42-51. https://doi.org/10.46281/bsdht986 

mailto:ponomarovan@khmnu.edu.ua
mailto:a.myhalkiv@chnu.edu.ua
mailto:t.kostash@chnu.edu.ua
mailto:andrysak@ukr.net
mailto:lgamanenko@ukr.net
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
https://www.openaccess.nl/en
https://doi.org/10.46281/bsdht986
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4076-246X
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9195-7726
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9027-7043
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3477-7515
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6547-1418


Ponomarova el al., Bangladesh Journal of Multidisciplinary Scientific Research 10(4) (2025), 42-51

 

43 

in auditing, as the conventional approaches are not feasible due to physical access and security threats. Auditors and other 

financial professionals will have to shift to working from home, improve cyber security and comply with new regulations to 

avoid embezzlement of funds or mismanagement (Kravets et al., 2024). 

The paper purpose is to provide a conceptual framework for understanding the impact of war on financial regulations, 

accounting and auditing to inform the future of Ukraine’s financial sector. In its quest to achieve financial stability and 

integration with the European Union, Ukraine’s accounting and auditing system will be essential in restoring investors’ 

confidence and stability. Due to several reasons, including political, economic, and technological shifts brought on by the post-

war recovery, the future of accounting and auditing in Ukraine is uncertain. Financial reporting, assurance services, and 

corporate governance face opportunities and problems due to the ongoing economic transition, European integration, and 

legislative reforms. However, how much of this will impact the profession is unclear. Political instability and changing 

government policies bring unpredictability to the regulatory frameworks for accounting and auditing standards. According to 

Kovacs-Rump et al. (2021), Ukraine’s financial reporting system must be aligned with International Financial Reporting 

Standards (IFRS) and European Union (EU) directives requiring structural changes. Still, the speed and effectiveness of these 

changes are unknown. Moreover, weak institutional capacity and economic constraints may hinder audit regulations and 

enforcement. Economically, post-war recovery is marked by volatile inflation, foreign investment and structural economic 

shifts. These factors impact financial reporting requirements and risk assessment processes, making it challenging for auditors 

and accountants to operate effectively. External forces, such as foreign investors and the international financial system, can 

significantly influence the regulatory setting, compounding the uncertainty (Kovacs-Rump et al., 2021). Technological 

developments in data analytics, blockchain technology, and artificial intelligence are revolutionizing the accounting and 

auditing industries. Although these advancements can increase productivity, the rapidity of their development makes it difficult 

to modify regulations, particularly in security-related fields and causes gaps in professional competency.  

Digitalizing financial reporting and audit processes further complicates the regulatory and operational framework. 

The above-stated challenges and uncertainties necessitate this study to urgently examine the effect of political, economic, 

and technological developments on the future of accounting and auditing in Ukraine. The study's outcome will assist 

policymakers, regulators, and professionals’ advance strategies that ensure that accounting and auditing remain strong, 

adaptive, and aligned with global best practices. 

A robust accounting system and a comprehensive auditing regime must be in place post-war to help stabilize the 

economy and address the economic difficulties. This study is of utmost importance as it helps the key stakeholders, such as 

the accountants, auditors, regulators, and investors, understand the critical areas that allow the reconstruction and 

fortification of Ukraine’s financial system during the post-war period. Accountants, being the first-level analyzers of 

financial information, are tasked with ensuring that they adapt to changing regulations and international standards. The war 

has caused severe economic disruptions and is bound to require adaptive accounting during times of asset impairments, debt 

restructuring, and loss recognition. This study fosters the growth of emerging trends in financial reporting, regulatory 

changes, and the new norm of accountants as soldiers to fight economic adversities. 

Significantly more financial risks, deceitful activities, and corporate governance issues emerge post-war, resulting 

in an exceptionally challenging and high-risk environment for auditors. This study investigates these risks and encourages 

a shift toward new audit procedures with a greater focus on the audit strategy, forensic audit, and audit assurances. Financial 

misstatements can be mitigated by strengthening the processes surrounding audits, which helps rekindle investor confidence. 

With the reinstatement of financial laws and policies, regulators facilitate financial compliance and restore economic 

stability. The research details the importance of regulatory changes, the adoption of global standards in accounting and 

auditing, and measures that can improve transparency while mitigating corruption in the financial sector. To put money in 

a recovering economy, investors need reliable financial information and a thorough understanding of the available risks and 

opportunities. This research examines financial disclosures, risk assessment models, and the influence of window-dressed 

policies of wartime on investment decisions. By determining salient financial indicators of economic recovery and corporate 

performance stability, the study seeks to provide investors with tools to navigate uncertainties.  This research contributes to 

the understanding of Ukraine’s post-war reality and what accounting and auditing reforms are needed to meet the challenges 

of economic recovery and transparency of Ukraine’s financial information. 

The aim of the study is to explore potential scenarios for the future evolution of accounting and auditing in Ukraine. 

It seeks to identify the key drivers that may influence these changes, including economic, regulatory, and technological 

factors. By analyzing these drivers, the study intends to provide valuable insights for policymakers and accounting 

professionals to support strategic adaptation. This forward-looking approach is designed to help stakeholders prepare for 

emerging challenges and opportunities, ensuring the continued development and relevance of accounting and auditing 

practices in Ukraine. 

The structure of the paper is organized as follows: Section 2 presents a comprehensive literature review, including 

the conceptual framework of scenario analysis; Section 3 outlines the research methodology, detailing the research design, 

data collection procedures, and data analysis techniques; Section 4 reports the main findings of the study and provides a 

discussion of the results; Section 5 concludes the paper with a summary. 

 

LITERATURE REVIEW 

Scenario analysis is used in strategic planning in economics and other fields to project potential futures based on differing 

assumptions and uncertainties (Wiebe et al., 2018). Its concepts stem from decision-making, systems thinking, and 

complexity science, allowing policymakers, businesses, and researchers to foresee various possibilities and improve their 

strategic decisions (Maier et al., 2016). According to Ramirez et al. (2010), scenario analysis's decision-making aspect looks 



Ponomarova el al., Bangladesh Journal of Multidisciplinary Scientific Research 10(4) (2025), 42-51

 

44 

at how decisions are made when there is a certain level of uncertainty surrounding the outcome. Understandable risks, which 

are quantifiable, and unknown factors are part of the categorization of uncertainty. 

Scenario analysis helps depict those uncertainties so stakeholders can develop a range of possible outcomes and 

their respective consequences to make the most efficient decisions. On the other hand, systems thinking focuses on the 

elements within a system and their interdependencies. Scenario analysis acts as a catalyst in helping thinkers grasp the 

interactions and impacts by considering broader economic, social, political, and other technological factors. It also identifies 

loops in which decisions can yield further problems or advantages, making it easier to determine long-term consequences 

(Lindgren & Bandhold, 2003; Yoe, 2019). 

Furthermore, Scenario analysis draws upon the intriguing non-linearity of complex systems, which can behave in 

nondeterministic and unpredictable ways. Instead, with systems as a whole, we adjust our focus to a system where feedback 

loops are easy to understand as they arise from interdependencies of evolved objectives (Gallegati et al., 2024). Strategic 

foresight is the combination of scenario analysis and forecasting. It uses exploratory scenarios to analyze possible outcomes 

and normative scenarios, which are essentially desired outcomes (Sossa et al., 2021). Developing a shared understanding 

among the stakeholders significantly increases support for strategic initiatives within a scenario (Nayev et al., 2023). 

Scenario analysis is helpful for policy formulation, investment planning, and risk management within the economic sphere. 

Decisions by policymakers, businesses, and even investors influence how these actors take advantage of a decision. Business 

firms may take risks related to some market fluctuations, while investors might examine the profitability and risks to better 

position themselves in a dynamic economy (Cordova-Pozo & Rouwette, 2023; Tokarski et al., 2021).  

Theoretical foundation of scenario analysis of this study is anchored on three theories: The Rational Expectations 

theory, uncertainty and game theory, and Complexity Theory and Systems Thinking. According to Zhang et al. (2021), the 

rational expectations theory classifies economists into two groups: those who differ in how they combine economic policy 

changes with hopes for the future and those who, driven primarily by changes in hopes, do not consider policy changes. 

From a broader framework, it applies the scenario to analyze how monetary and external policy alterations affect the 

economy. During the building of the various scenarios, it is assumed that economic actors build mental models based on the 

information available to them and the assumptions of their framework policy, which determines what kind of powers the 

modeler can or cannot wield (Cordova-Pozo & Rouwette, 2023). 

From a predictive and informative perspective, uncertainty and game theory narrow the possibilities and balance 

the probability of various outcomes (Jing et al., 2022). If the best or the worst-case scenarios occur, decisions will have 

already been made, and the models will set expectations that encourage or force people to wake up and move into action. 

These actions will have irreversible consequences that few would wish to experience. Gallegati et al. (2024) posit that 

markets are subsystems of the economic system, and as such, they are subject to simulation and forecasting. These seemingly 

endless relationships and dependencies require systems thinking, where one has to let the whole rather than the sum of the 

parts govern because it would take a million years to gather all possible streams of hypotheses with predictive models of 

anticipated outcomes. Such is a scenario analysis that integrates systems reasoning by considering feedback effects. 

Krichen et al. (2024) maintain that analyzing possible scenarios may shed light on potential paths toward achieving 

economic recovery and even self-sustained growth, considering the ongoing instability in Ukraine’s economy. According 

to Blythe et al. (2021), some possible scenarios include optimistic and pessimistic. The optimistic scenario hopes that 

international assistance, investment, and policy reforms lead to economic growth. The pessimistic scenario, on the other 

hand, assumes that weak regulation and geopolitical issues lead to an economic standstill. This research offers a 

comprehensive solution for evaluating the prospective developments of Ukraine’s accounting, auditing, and financial 

regulation in the economic conditions of the post-war period. This has been achieved by enriching traditional economic 

research with a scenario analysis approach. In line with Laborde et al. (2021), Liu and Wu (2022), and Wambui et al. (2022), 

the study considers three scenario models: Shell scenario planning, PESTEL-based scenario construction, and the Global 

Business Network (GBN) scenario planning. 

Royal Dutch Shell established Shell scenario planning and remains one of the most preferred models for long-term 

strategic forecasting. It approaches the issue of uncertainty by building plausible future scenarios from the key drivers of 

change. Instead of focusing on predicting the future, this model’s objective is to equip decision-makers with the tools to 

make sense of a myriad of possible outcomes. In the context of Ukraine, this model can be applied to assess various foreign 

investment recovery econometric models when considering the influences of foreign investment, regulatory changes, and 

geopolitical conditions. The PESTEL (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental and Legal) examines 

macro-environmental conditions of economic and business activity (Khan et al., 2023; Paramadita et al., 2024). It involves 

factors of different dimensions and helps integrate the examination of these various sections while being specifically 

valuable for scenario planning. 

In the post-war setting of Ukraine, a PESTEL-based analysis would examine how the degree of political stability, 

the stringency of legal reforms, and the range of economic policies a country adopts will affect the financial transparency 

of a country and the level of confidence investors have (Eichhorn et al., 2024). The GBN scenario planning, on the other 

hand, considers scenario planning as critical in dealing with critical uncertainties in the environment through disciplined 

imagination. Instead, it employs more rational determinism, concentrating on thinking, deciding, and acting. 

Ukraine’s post-crisis recovery presents a multifaceted institutional and economic landscape characterized by infrastructural 

and financial challenges (Aleksin, 2024). The conflict destabilized economic activities, hence the need for supervisory 

oversight to reinstate economic solidity. This can be explained as follows.  

Physical Recovery: The demolition of structures and industrial facilities resulted in immense economic sabotage 

and contractions. Rebuilding the economy involves the participation of all stakeholders, including policymakers, the public 

and private sectors, and foreign interventions. 



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45 

External Actors: Through financial aid, debt restructuring, and policy support, foreign financing partners such as the World 

Bank and the IMF play significant roles in stabilizing the economy of Ukraine. Monetary and Fiscal Adjustments: There’s 

a need for the central bank of Ukraine to develop war-related fiscal policies while nurturing a sustainable economic recovery. 

Regulatory Reforms in Financial Reporting: The aftermath of the war requires stronger regulatory oversight and a 

transparent financial reporting system. Ukraine must also align with the IFRS and EU regulations to boost investors’ confidence. 

Governance and Anti-Corruption: To combat corruption and improve corporate governance, post-war Ukraine needs 

institutional reforms that guarantee accountability in the public and private sectors. Auditing and Assurance Services: 

Auditors and regulators must enhance oversight mechanisms in post-war Ukraine to mitigate fraud and ensure compliance 

with emerging financial regulations. 

In the aftermath of the Bosnian War (1992–1995), Bosnia and Herzegovina witnessed a disjointed economic setting, 

with its financial segment divided into two political units: The Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Republika Srpska 

(Basic, 2024). As part of its reform efforts, Bosnia began aligning with IFRS to meet its EU integration objectives (Vignini, 

2023). To enhance the quality of financial reporting in line with the World Bank, the country adopted the International 

Standards on Auditing (ISA). In addition, organizations like the World Bank and the IMF offered technical support to enhance 

accounting education and professional certification. These reforms enabled Bosnia to shift from a socialist-style accounting 

system to one that aligns with global financial standards, promoting foreign investment and financial stability (Bolesta, 2022). 

Similarly, after the 2003 crisis, Iraq witnessed major economic chaos and destabilized the financial sector and banking 

institutions (Hinrichsen, 2022). Consequently, fixing the accounting and auditing framework becomes imperative for 

revamping the economy. Significant reform efforts include transitioning from Soviet-style accounting methods to IFRS to 

enhance transparency and attract international investors (World Bank). Furthermore, the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) 

collaborated with global financial institutions to create independent audit oversight bodies. After World War II, Germany 

witnessed a significant economic turnaround. This was made possible through intentional reform efforts, including 

implementing the German Commercial Code (HGB), which was in line with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles 

(GAAP) and later incorporated IFRS for publicly listed companies. In addition, under the Allied Banking Laws, Germany’s 

banking sector was rebuilt after the war. Furthermore, commercial banks were separated from investment banks (Kortl & 

Chbib, 2024). 

To enhance efficiency, transparency and compliance, accounting and auditing regulatory reforms must be aligned 

with digital technology advancements, such as artificial intelligence and deep learning (Yarmoliuk et al., 2024). According 

to Yaacob et al. (2023), the latest regulatory and technological trends include new legislation and standards to be developed 

to cater to digital assets, Artificial Intelligence, and cybersecurity in accounting and auditing. Similarly, auditors must verify 

environmental, social, and governance (ESG) disclosures to guarantee transparency. On the other hand, distributed ledger 

technology (blockchain) enhances auditing and reduces financial fraud. These inclinations signify a move towards a robust, 

regulated, and digital accounting environment that guarantees data safety and accurate accounting and auditing reports. On 

the other hand, the lessons learned from financial instability and the need for greater accountability and transparency formed 

the foundation for the evolution of financial reporting standards post-war in Ukraine. Significant developments post-war 

include adopting principles-based standards instead of rigid rule-based ones. Principles-based enhances flexibility and 

relevance in financial reporting. Similarly, to improve the comparability of financial statements, reduce earnings 

management, and restore investors’ confidence, there is a need to fully adopt the IFRS and the generally accepted accounting 

principles (GAAP). Furthermore, as a consequence of the financial crunch, regulatory bodies need to develop a more robust 

reporting framework and enhanced disclosure mechanisms. 

The accounting profession is experiencing an essential revolution due to rapid technological advancements. 

Digitalization, artificial intelligence (AI), and blockchain technologies are redesigning the modes of operations of 

accounting and auditing, which are essential for Ukraine’s post-war recovery efforts. Integrating digital technologies into 

everyday practices is commonly referred to as digitalization. In accounting, this includes using cloud computing, automated 

systems, and software solutions that streamline processes such as bookkeeping, invoicing, and reporting. AI includes a 

variety of technologies that mimic human acumen. AI can be used in accounting for risk assessment, financial modeling, 

and data analysis. The prospects of blockchain technology in accounting are indeed promising. It is a distributed journal 

technology that offers transparency, accuracy and data security (Kulikov et al., 2022). This section examines recent 

empirical studies in different contexts to ascertain the gaps in the literature. Raji et al. (2024) investigate how national 

cultural values affect financial inclusion in 40 countries, utilizing Hofstede's cultural dimensions from 2012 to 2021. 

Their findings reveal that higher power distance and uncertainty avoidance are linked to lower financial inclusion, 

while greater individualism and masculinity are associated with increased inclusion. The authors emphasize the importance 

of policymakers considering cultural values to foster financial inclusion and achieve sustainable development goals. 

However, their dependence on secondary data may miss essential nuances and changes in cultural attitudes over time. 

Similarly, Zaichko et al. (2024) analyze the financial development of small businesses in Ukraine before and during the 

war, highlighting the significant effects of conflict on economic conditions. Their study, which spans from 2013 to 2022, 

shows a decline in small enterprises, sales, and profitability due to disruptions caused by the war, predicting ongoing 

difficulties. They stress the necessity for coordinated state support but recognize that their focus on small businesses may 

overlook specific dynamics within different sectors. More so, Yarmoliuk et al. (2024) explore the transformative impact of 

digital technologies on accounting in the context of the 4th industrial revolution. They point out the potential advantages 

and risks, underlining the need for accountants to enhance their digital skills. However, their qualitative approach may not 

adequately capture the full extent of these technologies' impact.  

Oneshko et al. (2024) examine Ukrainian enterprises' challenges under martial law, advocating for a transition to 

proactive auditing to boost investor confidence despite ongoing disruptions. They rely on secondary data, indicating a need 



Ponomarova el al., Bangladesh Journal of Multidisciplinary Scientific Research 10(4) (2025), 42-51

 

46 

for primary data collection to better understand the current challenges. Umut (2023) discusses the financial repercussions 

of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on businesses, particularly the rise in costs and difficulties in revenue recognition under IAS. 

The study highlights the importance of conducting sensitivity analyses but does not delve into the broader socio-economic 

effects. Furthermore, Shkola (2023) explores how social indicators can be integrated into accounting practices. The research 

shows that while many companies recognize the significance of social performance, they encounter difficulties with current 

standards. It emphasizes the necessity for enhanced accounting frameworks, although it primarily focuses on companies 

already engaged in social performance, which may skew the findings. 

On the other hand, Korniienko and Petrunenko (2023) examine the impact of international sanctions and cyber 

warfare on Ukraine. They observe a strong awareness of sanctions but a lack of understanding regarding cybersecurity. 

Their findings highlight the urgent need for educational programs and further studies to grasp the long-term effects. Zhuk 

et al. (2023) created an accounting toolkit to evaluate war-related losses in Ukraine's agribusiness sector, suggesting a 

structured method for documenting damages. Their results indicate that losses are more significant than global estimates, 

but the emphasis on agribusiness may limit the applicability of their findings to other industries. Golubeva (2023) also 

assesses the implementation of IFRS in countries of the former Soviet Union from 2005 to 2020. She notes that the impact 

has generally been minimal, although some regions have experienced positive outcomes. The review highlights a significant 

sampling bias, which could obscure the varied challenges faced by less-studied nations. Tumalavvicius (2022) investigates 

the relationship between blockchain technology, cryptocurrencies, and sustainable development. He stresses the importance 

of establishing regulatory frameworks to tackle legal issues and promote sustainability. The study advocates for continued 

research to ensure that technological progress aligns with sustainable objectives, recognizing the ever-evolving landscape 

of the cryptocurrency market. 

Among the identified gaps is that most prior research on accounting and auditing reforms focused on stable 

economies. There is sparse literature that explores how these reforms can be specifically directed at meeting the needs of 

nations coming out of crisis. The literature often ignores the challenges of adopting these reforms in post-war countries. 

According to Yarmoliuk et al. (2024), some challenges include organizational culture, costs and limitations of accounting 

software, and the availability of digital skills and competencies. In addition, there are limited studies on how these reforms 

influence interest groups, including investors, practitioners, and regulators. Considering the views of these groups is 

essential for ensuring cooperation and collaboration. 

 

MATERIALS AND METHODS 

This study adopts the scenario analysis approach. This method combines qualitative and quantitative techniques to develop 

comprehensive insights into probable prospects based on changing expectations and circumstances. Given that Ukraine’s 

post-war accounting and auditing frameworks are faced with enormous uncertainty and difficulties, scenario analysis is 

deemed appropriate for this study as it permits scholars to discover numerous conceivable futures that can accommodate 

the different issues that might affect the development of accounting practices, including advancement in technology, 

economic circumstances and changes in the regulatory framework. 

The study gathered the required data through expert consultation (Delphi Method). The Delphi Method is an 

organized communication system that collects expert opinions through surveys from previous researchers, including 

Tumalavvicius (2022) and Shkola (2023). This study used this method because it allows for modifying thoughts and 

agreements on composite subjects. 

This research conducted three expert surveys with different interest groups, such as academicians, practitioners, 

and policymakers. The experts were selected based on their expertise and experience in accounting, auditing, and 

digitalization, as well as their experience in post-war economies. In addition, like Tumalavvicius (2022), the study 

considered diverse perspectives to have a balanced representation from different quotas: the public sector, investors, 

academia, and technocrats. The interview and a five-point Likert scale questionnaire collected data from 200 experts. The 

study analyzed two sets of data: experts’ opinions (responses to questions) and economic and regulatory data over 10 years. 

According to Castleberry and Nolen (2018), thematic analysis is used to find and report themes in qualitative data from 

expert interviews or focus groups. This approach simplifies complex insights into practical themes. 

 

RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS  

The key insights from experts on three study themes (regulatory challenges, technology adoption and economic recovery) 

are summarized in Table 1. 

 

Table 1. Thematic analysis of qualitative insights from experts 

 
Themes Key insights 

Regulatory challenges 
Experts emphasized serious regulatory challenges hindering the development of accounting and auditing in post-war 

Ukraine. They are obsolete rules, erratic implementation, and non-compliance with international standards. 

Technology adoption 
Notwithstanding the potential benefits of new technologies, experts highlighted the slow pace of the digital revolution in 

accounting and auditing. 

Economic recovery 
Experts are optimistic about the potential for growth in post-war Ukraine. They also identified key obstacles that may 

retard economic recovery. 

 

This study considered five variables over ten years (2015 - 2024). These variables are: Economic growth (ECG) 

(Gross Domestic Product – GDP), unemployment rate (UNER), investment rate (INVR), foreign direct investment (FDIR), 



Ponomarova el al., Bangladesh Journal of Multidisciplinary Scientific Research 10(4) (2025), 42-51

 

47 

and inflationary trend (INFR). Trend analysis looks at past data to find patterns or trends in economic and regulatory settings, 

helping to understand what might happen in the future (Edwards et al., 2018). The trend is presented in Figure 1. 

 

 
Figure 1. Economic trend analysis 

 

The study further utilized descriptive statistics to discuss the trend analysis, as presented in Table 2 below. 

 

Table 2. Summary of trend analysis 

 
Variable N Minimum Maximum Mean Std. deviation 

ECG 10 -30 4 -2.32 10.669 

UNER 10 8 30 13.73 8.144 

INVR 10 10 20 16.29 3.505 

FDIR 10 1 4 2.53 0.923 

INFR 10 5 43 15.78 11.541 

 

As shown from Table 2 the economic growth (gross domestic product) has a mean value of -2.32%, with a 

minimum value of -30% (in the year 2022, due to the war), and a maximum value (projected growth rate) of 4% (year 2024). 

On the other hand, the unemployment rate was at an average of 13.73% between 2015 and 20024, with a minimum and 

maximum value of 8% and 30%, respectively. The investment rate has an average value of 16.29%, with minimum and 

maximum values of 10% and 20%, respectively. The foreign direct investment rate has an average value of 2.53%, a 

minimum of 1% and a maximum of 4% between 2015 and 2024. Lastly, the inflation rate stood at an average value of 

15.76%, with the lowest value of 5% and at its peak in 2015 (43%). 

The summary statistics (mean, standard deviation, minimum and maximum values) of responses acquired by the 

study are presented in Table 3. 

 

Table 3. Descriptive statistics 

 
Construct N Mean Std. dev. Minimum Maximum 

Evolution of Accounting & Auditing 200 3.903 1.347 1 4 

Digital reinvention 200 3.955 2.026 1 4 

Gradual compliance 200 6.450 2.496 1 5 

Regulatory stagnation 200 8.470 2.216 1 4 

 

According to Table 3, regulatory stagnation has the highest mean of 8.470 but with a standard deviation of 2.216, 

which is far from the mean. This indicates a wide disparity in experts’ opinions regarding regulatory stagnation and the 

evolution of accounting and auditing in post-war Ukraine. Digital reinvention and gradual compliance have their standard 

deviation closer to the mean, which signifies less dispersion in experts’ opinions. 

The outcome of the partial least squares-structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) algorithm used in Gorondutse 

and Hilman (2017) is presented in view of the measurement model in Figure 2 and also summarized in Table 4. 

 

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

ECG UNER INVR FDIR INFR



Ponomarova el al., Bangladesh Journal of Multidisciplinary Scientific Research 10(4) (2025), 42-51

 

48 

 
Figure 2. Measurement model 

 

Table 4. Convergent validity of research constructs 

 
Construct N Mean Std. dev. Minimum Maximum 

Digital Reinvention 
DR1 0.855 0.656 0.853 0.744 

DR2 0.870 - - - 

Gradual Compliance 
GC1 0.801 0.722 0.869 0.769 

GC2 0.947 - - - 

Regulatory Stagnation 
RS1 0.699 0.530 0.797 0.666 

RS2 0.919 - - - 

 

From Table 4, it is evident that the loading for all the constructs is well above 0.5. Thus, all the constructs surpassed 

the recommended loading (Hair et al., 2018). Similarly, the least average variance extracted (AVE) is 0.666, above the 

threshold of 0.5 (Gorondutse & Hilman, 2017). Furthermore, Figure 2 reveals that the model has a moderate R-squared (R2) 

value of 0.412, which signifies that the three exogenous variables (Digital reinvention, DR; Gradual compliance, GC, and 

Regulatory Stagnation, RS) accounted for about 41.2% of the total variations in the endogenous variable (Evolution of 

Accounting and Auditing, EAA) in post-war Ukraine. 

The study utilized the PLS Bootstrapping function to test the effects of the three different scenarios. The results 

are summarized in Table 5 as follows: 

 

Table 5. Summary of PLS bootstrapping 

 
Scenario Path coefficient p-value R2 Decision 

DR → EAA 0.635 0.000*** 0.412 Supported 

GC → EAA 0.087 0.431 - Not supported 

RS → EAA -0.068 0.494 - Not supported 

Note: *** indicates significant at 1% 

DR = Digital reinvention (Scenario 1) 

GC = Gradual compliance (Scenario 2) 
RS = Regulatory stagnation (Scenario 3) 

 

The results of Bootstrapping in Table 5 indicate that the relationship between Digital Reinvention (Scenario 1) and 

the EAA in post-war Ukraine is positive and statistically significant (supported). This implies that the evolution of a high-

tech future, strong institutions, full implementation of the IFRS, and the adoption of AI-driven auditing tools and blockchain 

technologies contribute significantly to the evolution of accounting and auditing in Ukraine’s post-war economy. 

This finding agrees with Buriak and Petchenko (2021), who posit that accountants should not rely on traditional 

skills but must embrace modern technologies in the accounting profession. 

On the other hand, the association between Gradual Compliance (Scenario 2) and the EAA in post-war Ukraine is 

positive, though not statistically significant (not supported). This indicates that slow progress (mixed regulation), partial 

alignment with EU regulations, and gradual adaptation to digital reporting (with resistance from traditional institutions) can 

potentially enhance the EAA in post-war Ukraine. 



Ponomarova el al., Bangladesh Journal of Multidisciplinary Scientific Research 10(4) (2025), 42-51

 

49 

Lastly, Table 5 also reveals that the interaction between Regulatory Stagnation (Scenario 3) and the EAA in post-

war Ukraine is negative and statistically insignificant (not supported). This demonstrates that Regulatory Stagnation - weak 

oversight, economic instability, limited enforcement of international standards, and the situation where accounting remains 

paper-based with minimal digital transformation significantly retards the EAA in post-war Ukraine. 

This finding contradicts Yarmoliuk et al. (2024), who conclude that digital transformation is a reagent for reliability 

and innovativeness in accounting. 

 

CONCLUSIONS 

This study explored the future scenarios and forecasts for the evolution of Accounting and Auditing in Ukraine Post-War. 

The study utilized the Delphi research design and formulated three scenarios. The findings indicate that the three exogenous 

variables accounted for about 41.2% of the total variation in the endogenous variable. The findings also reveal that while 

digital reinvention (scenario 1) has a positive and significant effect on the evolution of accounting and auditing in post-war 

Ukraine, scenario 2 (Gradual compliance) and scenario 3 (regulatory stagnation) have an insignificant statistical relationship 

with the evolution of accounting and auditing in post-war Ukraine. 

The study concludes that the main drivers of accounting and auditing in post-war Ukraine remained digital 

reinvention (High-tech future, strong institutions), full implementation of IFRS, and adoption of AI-driven auditing tools 

and blockchain for financial transparency. Thus, digital reinvention is the best alternative to the evolution of accounting and 

auditing in post-war Ukraine, with regulatory stagnation as the worst scenario, as it can drag the nation backward 

economically. In line with the findings, the study recommends that policymakers enact laws that guarantee adaptable 

financial regulations and promote the digitalization of financial reporting systems. In addition, accounting educators and 

practitioners should embrace the digital transformation of the accounting and auditing profession. 

The outcomes of this study provide valuable insights for policymakers as it highlights the importance of aligning 

with international accounting standards. Similarly, for practitioners, particularly Accountants and Auditors, the study's 

findings pinpoint the need for acquiring the necessary skills (e.g., digital literacy, regulatory knowledge) for adapting to a 

tech-based rather than paper-based accounting system. More so, the study's findings underscore the need for companies to 

align their accounting system towards digitalization and keep them in line with global best practices. 

This study, just like every other study, is not free of limitations. First, it should be noted that the study utilized 

scenario analysis based on data obtained from Expert Consultation. Consequently, Expert bias in scenario construction 

cannot be ruled out. In addition, the study's outcome may not be generalized to other contexts or nations due to differences 

in legal, technological, economic, and socio-cultural settings. Furthermore, uncertainties in long-term economic forecasts 

can be affected by various factors, including changes in governance structure, policy direction, and the influence of 

international actors. Therefore, there is a need for constant updates in line with changes in policies. 

The study further suggests that, in the event of weak oversight and/or economic instability, accounting should 

remain paper-based with minimal digital transformation to ensure transparency and security of records. The study also 

recommends that future researchers conduct a comparative study of different post-war economies around the globe. 

Furthermore, unlike the current study that utilized the Delphi research design, future studies can consider AI-driven 

forecasting techniques for accounting trends. 

 

 
Author Contributions: Conceptualization, N.P. and A.M.; Methodology, N.P.; Software, A.M.; Validation, A.M., T.K. and V.A.; Formal Analysis, A.M.; 

Investigation, T.K.; Resources, V.A.; Data Curation, T.K.; Writing – Original Draft Preparation, O.D.; Writing – Review & Editing, V.A.; Visualization, 
O.D.; Supervision, N.P.; Project Administration, N.P.; Funding Acquisition, N.P. Authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript. 

Institutional Review Board Statement: Ethical review and approval were waived for this study, as the research does not involve vulnerable groups or 
sensitive issues. 

Funding: Authors received no funding for this research.  

Acknowledgment: Not applicable.  
Informed Consent Statement: Informed consent was obtained from all subjects involved in the study. 

Data Availability Statement: The data presented in this study are available on request from the corresponding author. The data are not publicly available 

due to restrictions. 
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
 

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