25

Climate means the weather averaged over 
a long period of time (Ihara et al., 2009). 
Climate change is defined as the significant 

change in rainfall, temperature, and other climatic 
parameters observed over time in a specific area 
(PAN, 2010). It is obvious that climate change 
has already adversely affected socio–economic 
sectors, including water resources, agriculture, 
forestry, human settlements, and ecological 
system (IPCC, 2001). Despite their negligible 
contribution to global warming, least developed 
countries like Nepal are amongst the countries 

most susceptible to the impacts of climate change 
due to their limited capacity to deal with them 
(Manandhar et al., 2011). Nepal is recognized 
as the fourth most climate–vulnerable nation 
globally and has good reasons to be concerned 
about climate change (Adhikari et al., 2018; 
Khanal et al., 2019). Climate change has added 
additional stress on poor communities in Nepal 
(Pant, 2012), where the poorest communities are 
struggling to fulfill their basic needs (Joshi et al., 
2010). More than two million Nepalese depend 
on climate–sensitive sectors like agriculture 

Banko Janakari, Vol 32 No. 1, 2022 Pp 25‒40https://doi.org/10.3126/banko.v32i1.45443

Climate change, climatic disasters, and adaptation 
techniques: learnings from the lowlands of Nepal

Nepal is experiencing inevitable consequences of changing climate. Rural 
communities are badly suffering from these implications. Meanwhile, the rural 
communities are trying to acclimatize through small–scale adaptation efforts. This 
study aims to analyze changes in temperature and rainfall trends, identify major 
climatic disasters, and document current adaptation measures being adopted by 
rural communities. For this study, we randomly selected 220 households from a total 
of 4,282 Households, and seven key informants for the questionnaire survey within 
the study area. Meteorological data from the nearest station were used to analyze 
changes in temperature and rainfall trends. The study revealed that both mean annual 
maximum and minimum temperature increased by 0.063 °C/year and 0.072° C/year 
respectively, between 1991 and 2020. Similarly, mean annual rainfall increased by 
12.329 mm/year. Floods, droughts, landslides, hailstorms, and forest fires were major 
climate disasters experienced by the locals. The adverse impact perceived were 
loss of crop yield, decrease in water availability, an increase of mosquitoes, and a 
decline in sightings of the birds and waterfowls in the area. Embankment construction 
along rivers, changing cropping patterns and cultivation time, forest protection, and 
maintaining home gardens were major adaptation measures being practiced by the 
locals. We believe the findings of this study will be helpful for policymakers to develop 
strategies and programs for communities that will promote resilience against climate–
induced disasters at a local level in the lowlands of Nepal.

Keywords: Adaptation strategies, impact, landuse change, livelihood, Terai

R. S. Thagunna 1, S. G. Chhetri 2,3, D. Gautam 1, 4, D. Bhattarai 5

and P. S. Thapa 5,6,*

 Received: 14, February 2022 Revised: 2, May 2022 Accepted: 20, May 2022 Published: 31, May 2022

1 Institute of Forestry, Tribhuvan University, Pokhara, 33700, Nepal 
2 Himalayan Conservation and Research Institute, Dolpa, 21400, Nepal
3 College of Forestry, Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Arkansas, Monticello AR 71656, USA
4 School of Ecology and Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
5 Ministry of Forests and Environment, Singhadurbar, Kathmandu, 44600, Nepal 
6 Ishikawa Prefectural University, Ishikawa–Prefecture, Nonoichi–shi, Suematsu, 1–308, Japan ,*E–mail: prakashsthapa7@gmail.com

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7958-988X
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3577-9304
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5239-365X
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3861-4705
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6246-0657


Banko Janakari, Vol 32 No. 1

26

Thagunna et al.

and forestry for their livelihoods, and they have 
limited capacity to cope with climate change–
induced disasters (Garg et al., 2007). Nepal is 
particularly prone to natural disasters because of 
its unique geographical location and topography 
(Gauli & Upadhaya, 2019; WFP, 2009). 

Erratic rainfall, flash floods, landslides, and 
glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) impacting 
the country's food supply are some of the 
examples of the disasters that have occurred due 
to changing climatic patterns in Nepal (Karki 
& Gurung, 2012). Climate change is linked to 
an increasing prevalence of natural disasters in 
Nepal, such as droughts, floods, landslides, and 
hailstorms with large stones (MoAC, 2009). 
Buildings and infrastructures can be damaged 
during extreme climatic events such as flooding, 
while rising temperatures and water scarcity may 
affect property value by increasing operation costs 
(Aboulnaga et al., 2019). Habitat degradation and 
loss of native biodiversity are becoming inevitable 
with the increasing invasion of invasive species 
(such as Mikania micrantha, Lantana camara, 
Chromolaena odorata, and Ageratina adenophora) 
and are bound to increase with the future warming 
climate in Nepal (Lamsal et al., 2017). Another 
serious threat associated with climate change is 
the increase in infectious diseases such as Malaria 
(Dhimal et al., 2014). Climate change impacts 
are expected to exacerbate poverty in most of 
the developing countries and create new poverty 
pockets in countries with increasing inequality in 
both developed and developing countries (Joshi 
et al., 2017). IPCC (2007) highlighted that by the 
year 2050, the number of people suffering from 
water stress could double (Bates et al., 2008). 
The vulnerable groups, mainly poor people, 
would be in a dilemma of economic hardship 
because of insufficient knowledge of disaster 
management, low literacy rates, inadequate 
physical infrastructure, poor forecasting facilities, 
and unplanned settlement (Dhungana et al., 2018; 
Dhungana et al., 2020). 

Meanwhile, the rural communities are trying 
to cope with the changing climate. Individual 
households are adopting various climate change 
risk combating measures such as rainwater 
harvesting, mulching, planting date adjustments, 

farming drought–tolerant crops, and off–farm 
employment (Paudel et al., 2019). In order to 
maintain crop yields, farmers are considering 
changes in traditional practices such as cropping 
patterns, timing, crop varieties, and using more 
fertilizers and pesticides (Shrestha & Nepal, 
2016). Adaptation to climate change is a bigger 
priority in many low–income countries like 
Nepal than climate change mitigation (Baniya et 
al., 2021). Nevertheless, in disaster–prone areas, 
early warning systems for extreme climatic events 
(such as floods and landslides) are crucial for 
saving lives and properties (Bajracharya et al., 
2021; Thapa & Adhikari, 2019). 

Especially, the people of the lowlands i.e., the 
Terai region of Nepal, are highly susceptible to 
climate change–induced risks, such as floods, 
droughts, forest fires, and drying of ponds, 
rivers, and wetlands (MoSTE, 2010). The 
changes in climate parameters are evident in the 
Shuklaphanta Municipality area. To date, limited 
researches related to climate change and climate–
induced disasters have been conducted in the area 
(Maharjan et al., 2011). In this background, this 
study aims to analyze changes in temperature and 
rainfall trends, identify major climatic disasters in 
the study area, and explore adaptation measures 
practiced by the rural communities. In doing 
so, this study anticipates establishing a piece of 
baseline information on changing climate, climatic 
disasters, and their impact on the local livelihoods. 
Further, it also anticipates documenting adaptation 
measures that can be replicated in other similar 
areas in the country.

Materials and methods

Study area

The study was conducted in the Shuklaphanta 
Municipality (28° 32' – 29° 28' N and 80° 30' 
– 80 °33' E) of Kanchanpur district located in 
Sudurpashchim province of Nepal (Figure 1). 
We chose Shuklaphanta Municipality for several 
reasons: i) the municipality is vulnerable to 
climate change; ii) climate–induced natural 
disasters are increasing in the municipality 
(Climate Change, 2019; Nepali Times, 2019); 
and the municipality is located close to 



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Thagunna et al.

Shuklaphanta National Park, one of the most 
prominent biodiversity hotspots. Thus, to reduce 
the impact of climate change on biodiversity and 
human lives, it is very important to carry out this 
study in the area.

Shuklaphanta Municipality covers an area of 
162.57 km2 and comprises a total population of 
24,347 living in 4,282 households (CBS, 2011). 
Topographically, this municipality embraces three 
regions: Churia hills, Bhabar range, and Terai plain, 
with an elevation ranging between 160 m–1,528 
m. The average annual rainfall of the district is 
1,575 mm. The average maximum and minimum 
temperatures are 43°C and 24°C during summer 
and 19°C and 2°C during winter (Joshi & Singh, 
2010; Pant & Yadav, 2013). The district has hot 
and humid tropical to sub–tropical climates. Major 
ethnic groups in the district include Brahmin, 
Chhetri, Tharu, Dalits, and others. 

 

Figure 1: Map showing the study area. Top–
left inset shows the location of Kanchanpur 
district within Nepal. Top–right inset shows 
the location of Shuklaphanta municipality 
within the Kanchanpur district

Data collection

The fieldwork was conducted in the months 
of December 2019 to January 2020. In total, 
220 households (HH) were selected randomly 

for HH survey. HH heads were interviewed 
wherever applicable, if not available then adult 
HH members were interviewed. A structured 
questionnaire was used for the interview, 
which took 15–20 min per respondent. The 
three–page questionnaire was divided into five 
parts. Part A included open–ended questions 
related to respondents’ details and socio–
demographic characteristics such as age, name, 
sex, education, and occupation. Part B included 
close–ended questions (Yes, No, Don’t know 
and Increasing, Decreasing and Don’t know) 
related to respondents’ experience of changes 
in temperature and precipitation. Part C 
included close (Increasing, Decreasing and 
Don’t know) and open–ended questions related 
to respondents’ experience of climate–induced 
impact on agriculture yield, water resources, 
mosquito prevalence, and birds/waterfowls. 
Parts D included close (Increasing, Decreasing 
and Don’t know) and open–ended questions 
related to climate–induced disasters, namely 
flood, drought, forest fire, hailstorm and 
landslide, and adaptation measures practiced 
to adapt to flood, drought, forest fire, and 
hailstorm.

Farmers, community leaders, local teachers, 
Community Forest Users Group (CFUG)
committee members, ward chairperson, the mayor, 
and representatives of local non–government 
organizations were selected through snowball 
sampling for key informant interviews (KII). Key 
informants were interviewed to get information 
about major climatic events and their impacts. 
Field observation was carried out to validate the 
information gathered from KII and HH surveys. 
Climatic data (1991–2020), such as maximum and 
minimum annual temperature (°C) and rainfall 
(mm) were obtained from the Department of 
Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), Nepal, for 
the Mahendranagar meteorological station (Index 
no. 0105). Additionally, published literature 
relevant to this study was downloaded from 
Google scholar, and reports from government 
and non–government organizations were also 
collected and reviewed. The questionnaire used 
for the HH surveys, and the Checklists used for 
KII are provided in Supplemantary material.

https://frtc.gov.np/downloadfile/Supporting%20Document%20Annex_1656330684.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1B0nR770wKEJZ4G4m_pKmRzAgRga0OzM6fH9MEZ6wuFAqlLYRHaLj6P0w


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Thagunna et al.

Data analysis

Datasheets were reviewed and checked daily for 
completeness, consistency, and accuracy. After 
finalizing the data collection, all the data were 
rechecked, edited, coded, categorized, entered, 
and analyzed. The linear least–squares curve 
fitting technique, shown in Equation 1, was used 
for analyzing changes in mean annual maximum 
and minimum temperature and mean annual 
rainfall trends (PAN, 2009). It is the simplest and 
the most used technique in regression analysis 
that provides the best–fitting straight line through 
a set of points (Chakrabarty, 2014). MS Excel 
version 2013 and SPSS version 23 were used for 
data analysis. 

y=mx + c ………….. Equation 1

where, y is temperature in degrees Celsius (oC) or 
rainfall in millimeters (mm), 

“m” and “c” are the constants estimated by the 
principle of least squares

As a major part of this study, we explored the 
valued perceptions of sampled individuals and 
analyzed their opinions with bar diagrams and 
tabular forms, in a simplistic way to make them 
easier to understand. The Chi–square test was 
used to analyze the association between the socio–
demographic characteristics of the respondents 
and their knowledge of climate change. While 
using a chi–square test, we have considered only 
“Yes” and “No” and excluded “Don’t Know” 
response from the analysis.

Results 

Socio–demographic characteristics of the 
respondents

In total, 220 respondents participated in the HH 
survey. The average age of the respondents was 41 
years old, with a median age of 39 years. Majority 
of the respondents were females (56%). About 
77% of the respondents were Brahmin/Chhetri. 
Similarly, agriculture was the primary occupation 
of 74% of the respondents. The majority of the 
respondents (75%) were literate (Table 1).

Table 1. Socio–demographic characteristics of 
the respondents

Socio–demographic 
characteristics Count (%)

Age (years)
Less than 35 84(38.2)
35–55 98(44.55)
More than 55 38(17.25)
Gender
Female 124 (56.36)
Male 96 (43.64)
Ethnicity
Bhramin/Chhetri 169(76.82)
Tharu 22(10.00)
Dalits 19(8.64)
Others 10(4.54)
Occupation
Agriculture 162(73.63)
Service 16(7.27)
Business 42(19.10)
Education
Illiterate 55(25.00)
Literate 165 (75.00)
Primary level 78 (35.45)
Secondary level 37(16.82)
Higher Secondary level 28(12.73)
Bachelor’s level 17(7.73)
Masters level 5(2.27)

Respondents’ knowledge and experience of 
climate change

Except for gender, every other five variables, 
ethnicity, age, years of residence, occupation, and 
education level, were found to have a significant 
effect on respondents’ knowledge and experience 
of climate change, and hazards (things which 
cause harm to the people) (Table 2–4). 

The results showed that half of the respondents 
(50%) have knowledge of climate change. A chi–
square test of independence was performed to 
examine the relationship between several socio–
demographic characteristics and the respondents’ 
knowledge on climate change (Table 2). Among 
five variables, ethnicity (p=0.001), age (p=0.001), 
occupation (p=0.001), and education (p=0.001) 
were statistically significant to the knowledge of 
climate change.



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Thagunna et al.

Table 2: Contingency table showing the interrelation between different socio–demographic 
variables and respondents’ knowledge of climate change

Socio–demographic 
Characteristics Categories Yes 

(count)
No 
(count)

Don’t Know 
(count)

Chi–squared test 
(p–value)

Ethnicity
 
 
 

Bhramin/Chhetri 95 74 0
0.001Tharu 3 19 0

Dalit 5 14 0
Others 7 3 0

Gender
 

Female 58 66 0
0.276

Male 52 44 0
Age
 
 

Less than 35 63 21 0 0.001
35–55 39 59 0
More than 55 30 8 0

Occupation
 
 

Agriculture 55 107 0
0.001Services 39 3 0

Business 16 0 0

Education
 
 
 
 
 

Illiterate 3 52 0 0.001
Primary 35 43 0
Secondary 24 13 0
Higher Secondary 26 2 0
Bachelor 17 0 0
Master 5 0 0

One–fourth (26%) of the respondents have feelings about any climate pattern change. The contingency 
table indicates that except for gender, all other variables such as ethnicity (p=0.001), age (p=0.001), 
occupation (p=0.001), and education (p=0.001) were statistically significant to the experience with 
climate change (Table 3).

Table 3: Contingency table showing the interrelation between different socio–demographic 
variables and respondents’ experience with climate change

Socio–demographic 
Characteristics Categories Yes 

(count)
No 
(count)

Don’t Know 
(count)

Chi–squared 
test (p–value)

Ethnicity
 
 
 

Bhramin/Chhetri 49 79 41 0.003
 
 
 

Dalit 2 16 1
Tharu 2 19 1
Others 5 3 2

Gender
 

Female 29 71 24 0.178
 Male 29 46 21

Age
 
 

Less than 35 32 30 22 0.001
 
 

35–55 20 57 21
More than 55 6 30 2

Occupation
 
 

Agriculture 21 114 27 0.001
 
 

Services 26 3 13
Business 11 0 5

Education
 
 
 
 
 

Illiterate 2 52 1 0.001
 
 
 
 
 

Primary 21 44 13
Secondary 6 17 14
Higher Secondary 11 4 13
Bachelor 13 0 4
Master 5 0 0



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Thagunna et al.

More than one–third (36%) of the respondents understand that increasing climatic hazards have been 
the last 30 years. A chi–square test shows that except gender, other variables such as ethnicity, age, 
occupation, and education were statistically significant to the understanding of increase of climatic 
hazards over 30 years (Table 4).

Table 4: Contingency table showing the interrelation between different socio–demographic 
variables and respondents’ understanding of natural hazards increase due to climate change

Socio–demographic 
Characteristics Categories Yes 

(count)
No 
(count)

Don't Know 
(count)

Chi–squared test 
(p–value)

Ethnicity
 
 
 

Bhramin/Chhetri 64 65 40 0.076
 
 
 

Dalit 6 12 1
Tharu 5 16 1
Others 5 3 2

Gender
 

Female 42 59 23  
0.2314Male 38 37 21

Age
 
 

Less than 35 43 19 22 0.001
 
 

35–55 27 51 20
More than 55 10 26 2

Occupation
 
 

Agriculture 41 94 27 0.001
 
 

Services 28 2 12
Business 11 0 5

Education
 
 
 
 
 

Illiterate 11 43 1 0.001
 
 
 
 
 

Primary 27 38 13
Secondary 10 13 14
Higher Secondary 13 2 13
Bachelor 14 0 3
Master 5 0 0

Temperature trend

The study showed that the mean annual maximum 
temperature increased at the rate of 0.063°C/
year between 1990 and 2020 (Figure 2). The 
average annual maximum temperature for the 
past 30 years was found to be 30.88 °C. The year 
2008 was recorded to be the hottest year, with 
a mean annual maximum temperature of 34 °C 
(Figure 2). Also, there is an increasing trend in 
the mean annual minimum temperature (0.072 
°C/year; Figure 3). The average annual minimum 
temperature for the past 30 years was found to 
be 17.28 °C. The lowest mean annual minimum 
temperature (14.5 °C) was recorded in 1997 
(Figure 3). 

 

y = 0.063x - 95.158 
R² = 0.21 

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

Te
m

pe
ra

tu
re

 (�
C

) 

Year 
Tmax (°C) Linear (Tmax (°C))

Figure 2: Mean annual maximum temperature 
trend



Banko Janakari, Vol 32 No. 1

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Thagunna et al.

 

y = 0.072x - 126.16 
R² = 0.33 

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

T
em

pe
ra

tu
re

 (
�C

) 

Year 
Tmin (°C) Linear (Tmin (°C))

Figure 3: Mean annual minimum temperature 
trend

Rainfall trend

The study revealed that annual rainfall increased 
at the rate of 12.329 mm/year between 1990 and 
2020 (Figure 4). The average annual rainfall for 
the past 30 years was found to be 1863 mm/year. 
The annual rainfall was the highest (2540 mm) 
in the year 2007 and the lowest (1150 mm) in the 
year 2006 (Figure 4). 

 

y = 12.329x - 22863 
R² = 0.12 

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

2750

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

R
a
in

fa
ll

 (
m

m
) 

Year Rainfall (mm) Linear (Rainfall (mm))

Figure 4: Annual rainfall trend

Respondents’ perception of climate change

Seventy percent of the respondents reported that 
the temperature is increasing, 20% reported that 
it is decreasing, and the remaining 10% had no 
clue about the change in temperature. Likewise, 
28% of the respondents reported that rainfall is 
increasing, 60% reported that it is decreasing, and 
the remaining 12% had no clue about the change 
in rainfall (Figure 5).

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90

100

Increasing Decreasing Do not know

%
 o

f r
es

po
nd

en
ts

 

Rainfall
Tempreture

Figure 5: Perception towards changing rainfall 
and temperature in the area

Climate–induced disasters and their impacts

The chronology of the climate–induced disasters 
together with their impacts in and around the 
study area, is presented in Table 5. There was no 
measurement system or systematic documentation 
of disasters and their impacts in the study area. 
The key informants were asked to recall climate–
induced disasters and the impacts that they had 
experienced. Flood, droughts, and hailstorms were 
the major climate–induced disasters experienced 
by the people of the study area.

Table 5: Timeline of climate–induced disasters 
and their impacts

Year
Climate–
induced 
disasters

Effects

1995
Cold wave 
and winter 
rain

Caused blight outbreak and 
damaged tomato and potato crops.

2002 Prolonged 
drought

Farmers could not plant winter 
and early crops, which affected 
subsistence living.

2002 Malaria 
outbreak

Kanchanpur is a malaria–endemic 
district (NHRC, 2007), and many 
died because of the outbreak.

2004 Rain deficit
Crop production decreased by 
12.5% on a national basis (NHRC, 
2007)

2008 Mahakali 
River flood 

Ten persons died, and damaged 
5,500 houses in ward number 
2, 11, 12, and 15 of the former 
Mahendranagar Municipality 
(MOHA, 2009)

2013 Hailstorm

An intense hailstorm of less than 
half an hour completely damaged 
crops in the wards of the study 
area. 

2018 Cold waves 
and thick fog

Schools in the Kanchanpur district 
were closed for a few days.



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Thagunna et al.

Impacts of climate change

Based on the perceived impacts, local people 
perceived a decrease in crop production, water 
availability, forest area, and birds/waterfowl, 
but they expressed mosquito number has been 
increased compared to a previous time. 

 

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Crop production Water availabilty Mosquito
presence

Birds/waterfowls

%
 o

f r
es

po
nd

en
ts

 

Increase
Decrease
No change

Figure 6: Locals' perception towards the 
impact of climate change

The impacts of climate change on various 
sectors are discussed separately in the following 
paragraphs. 

Agriculture yield: Most of the respondents (60%) 
(Figure 6) claimed that agricultural production 
(main crops: paddy and wheat) has reduced. 
Among them, 12% of the respondents reported 
that production of paddy and wheat has increased 
slightly whereas the remaining 28% claimed 
that they did not perceive any change. While 
interviewing about agricultural productivity 
during the field study, local people reported that 
together with main crops such as paddy and 
wheat, other crops such as sugarcane and mustard 
production have also dropped in recent years. 

Water resources: About 72% of the respondents 
(Figure 6) reported that water sources were drying 
up (decrease in the quantity of water quantity in 
hand pumps and borings) and abandoned their use 
(Figure 7). In contrast, 21% of the respondents 
reported that water resources are increasing, and 
the remaining 7% reported they do not know 
about changes in water resources. 

Mosquito presence: About 91% of the respondents 
(Figure 6) claimed that the number of mosquitoes 
had increased considerably in the Suklaphanta 
Municipality. 

Figure 7: Abandoned dried–up spring (left) 
and dried water boring (right) in Shuklaphanta 
municipality–8

Birds and waterfowls: Majority (57%) of the 
respondents (Figure 6) claimed that the bird 
population has decreased in the study area. 
According to them, habitats of the birds are 
shrinking due to decline in forest area and water 
entities because of increase in climate–induced 
disasters (such as fires and droughts).

Locals’ perception of climate change–related 
disasters:

The disastrous events such as floods, drought, 
forest fire and hailstorms are found increasing in 
the area (Figure 8). According to respondents, the 
main disasters are floods followed by drought. 
Most of (70%) of the respondents agreed that 
flood occurrences are increasing, 20% said 
decreasing and 10% expressed do not know. For 
drought, 60% of respondents agreed that drought 
is increasing. Similarly, 49% said forest fires are 
increasing and 45% agreed that hail storming 
events are increasing in the area.

 

0 20 40 60 80

Flood

Drought

Forest Fire

Hailstorm

% of respondents 

Ty
pe

s 
of

 d
is

as
te

rs
 

Increasing

Decreasing

Do not know

Figure 8: Locals’ perception on climate–
induced disaster occurrences



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Thagunna et al.

Adaptation measures practiced by local 
communities

Further, the analysis of KII and HH surveys 
revealed that those local communities are 
practicing adaptation measures at both community 
and individual levels. Shayali and Sunbara rivers 
are two main streams flowing in the study area 
gets huge volume of water flow during torrential 
rains in monsoon season, resulting in flood and 
waterlogging, so local people have constructed 
embankment along the river with the governmental 
support. Locally available stones and bags 
filled with pebbles and gravels were used to 
construct such embankment. Respondents shared 
embankments and plantations along streambanks 
have been helpful in controlling erosion hazards 
and agricultural land cutting to some extent. 
People were found constructing deeper borings 
for drought management than in the past to extract 
more water for daily use. Respondents reported 
that seed sowing, planting, and harvesting time 
for rice, wheat, and maize had shifted two to three 
weeks earlier in comparison to 30 years back. 
The respondents have switched to cash crops like 
vegetables, fruits, etc., because the productivity 
of traditional crops has been decreasing in recent 
years. Community forests in the study area are 
supporting locals to protect and conserve their 
forests. In addition, respondents have also started 
planting trees, including fruit trees and fodder/
fuelwood trees, in their home gardens. They 
expressed that the installation of ICS has been 
helpful in adaptation as well as mitigation of 
climate change as ICSs use less fuelwood and 
produce less smoke compared to traditional stoves. 

Major adaptation measures being practiced by 
local communities are summarized in Table 6.

Table 6: Climate–induced disasters, common 
effects, and practiced adaptation measures

Disasters Perceived effects Adaptation 
measures

Flooding

Damage to crops especially 
paddy fields, loss of life 
and livestock, Destruction 
of the riverbanks, wooden 
houses and roads, Soil 
erosion

Embankment of 
rivers and streams, 
plantation of trees, 
and constructing 
raised shed houses

Disasters Perceived effects Adaptation 
measures

Drought

Crop yield reduced, less 
water for household use 
and irrigation purpose, 
Handpump drying

Pipeline from a far 
distance, Irrigation 
canal sharing with 
neighbors, Deep 
boring, drought–
tolerant species

Hailstorms loss and damage of major 
crops and vegetables

Plastic tunnel, crop 
diversification with 
agroforestry

Forest fires 
Reduced fuelwood 
for cooking, and 
unavailability for cattle

Forest watcher 
provision and 
awareness 
campaigns, 
recently the 
installation of 
Improved cooking 
stoves (ICS) 
which needs less 
fuelwood

Discussion

Changes in temperature and rainfall trend 

This study found that the mean annual maximum 
temperature is increasing at the rate of 0.063°C/
year (Figure 2), which is comparable to the 
national average of 0.06°C/year between 1977 
and 2000 reported by Sharma et al. (2009). 
Similarly, we also found that the mean annual 
minimum temperature is increasing at the rate 
of 0.072°C/year (Figure 3). Thapa et al. (2015) 
reported an annual increment of 0.03 °C/year 
and 0.05 °C/year for mean annual maximum 
and minimum temperature respectively, between 
1982 and 2011 for the Kailali district, the district 
adjoins the study district, which is slightly lower 
than what we found. We found that annual rainfall 
is increasing at the rate of 12.329 mm/year, which 
is in line with the results of Chhetri (2012). An 
increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall 
leads to drought (Gautam et al. 2020), but for 
the study increase in both the temperature and 
rainfall has been observed. Shrestha et al. (2000) 
found that the monsoon rainfall shows great 
inter–annual variability. Such variability in the 
rainfall is likely to have an impact on agriculture, 
ultimately affecting the peoples’ livelihoods. 
There is an agreement between climate data and 
local’s perceptions of mean annual temperature 
and rainfall. In cases of temperature, more than 
70% of the respondents perceive an increase in 



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34

Thagunna et al.

temperature and, there is an increasing mean 
annual maximum temperature and mean annual 
minimum temperature (Figure 2 & 3). Local 
perceived irregularities in rainfall pattern with 
overall increase in rainfall which is similar to the 
increasing trend of mean annual rainfall shown 
by the recorded data (Figure 4). 

Impacts of climate change

The study found that agriculture, water resources, 
mosquito numbers, and birds/waterfowls are 
the sectors being affected by climate change. 
Short–term droughts, unpredictable rainfall, 
a decrease in the water table, and an increase 
in evapotranspiration have mostly affected the 
agriculture sector in Nepal (Sharma et al., 2018). 
Chhetri (2012) found that the number of crops 
per year has been reduced from three to two 
crops per year. Due to climate change, water 
resources have been decreased (Ghimire et al., 
2019). Diseases like Malaria and allergies, and 
itching are increasing with the changing climate 
(Blayneh et al., 2009) and are affecting human 
health. Increment in mosquito numbers has been 
identified to be the main reason behind an increase 
in Malaria spread (WHO, 2009). The respondents 
reported that because of the rising temperature, 
mosquito number is increasing in the study 
area. An increase in the drought period has led 
to an increase in the incidence of fire, resulting 
into the decrease in a number of birds not only 
in the area but also across the country (GoN, 
2011; GoN, 2014). Dahal (2009) suggested that 
some native tree species such as Shorea robusta, 
Dalbergia sissoo, Terminalia tomentosa, Acacia 
catechu, and Bombax ceiba are decreasing due to 
climate change. Baral (2009) reported that human 
properties like houses, sheds, and agricultural 
lands are mostly being destructed by weather–
related disasters like landslides and flooding 
and the situation is not different in the study 
area. This suggests that changing climate has 
serious impacts on the livelihood assets of rural 
communities (MoFE, 2019).

Adaptation measures practiced by local 
communities 

This study revealed found that local communities 
are practicing adaptation measures at both 
community and individual levels. Major 

adaptation measures being practiced by local 
communities are embankment construction 
along the river, deeper borings, change in crop 
planting time, change in types of crops, plantation 
of trees in the home garden, and installation of 
ICS. Such practices have also been observed in 
other parts of the country (Tiwari et al., 2010). 
The study found that locals are using locally 
available materials like stones and bags filled to 
construct embankments. They are also planting 
multipurpose tree species along the embankments 
to reinforce them. Such tree plantations not only 
re–strengthen the embankments but also provide 
additional benefits such as carbon sequestration, 
greenery promotion, fuelwood production, 
and ecological balance (Pandey, 2016), which 
in turn helps local communities in recovering 
from climate change impacts (Udayashankara et 
al., 2016). Kattel & Nepal (2022) reported that 
local people are practicing rainwater harvesting 
techniques and the establishing conservation 
ponds to adapt to water scarcity. Nepal disaster 
report showed that rainfall pattern is changing, 
and drought periods are increasing throughout the 
country (GoN/MoHA, 2019). Local communities 
are using harvested rainwater and water stored in 
conservation ponds for crop plantation (MoHA, 
2009). However, in our case, local communities 
are using irrigation canals to irrigate their 
agricultural lands. To address the issue of declining 
agricultural production, local communities have 
introduced hybrids (e.g., Gorakhnath, US–312) 
and improved varieties (e.g., Shanti, Ramdhan, 
Sarju) of rice crops, which is in line with the 
finding that the hybrid seeds are replacing the 
local varieties (Khanal & Kattel, 2017; Khanal 
et al., 2019). Forests and trees, when sustainably 
managed, can play an important role in climate 
change mitigation and adaptation as they help 
in reducing drought, increasing rainfall, and 
maintaining rainfall time (FAO, 2007). Indeed, 
the community forests in the study area are 
supporting local communities to protect and 
conserve forests. In addition, respondents have 
also started planting trees, including fruit trees 
and fodder/fuelwood trees, in their home gardens. 
Local communities are switching to improved 
cooking stoves (ICS), which is helping them to 
reduce greenhouse gas emissions, avoid adverse 
health effects of indoor air pollution, and also 



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Thagunna et al.

improve forest conservation (Anenberg et al., 
2013). 

Conclusion

The findings of the study provide a basis for 
preparing a community–level adaptation plan 
for climate change since results from the study 
cannot be generalized to a larger scale. The impact 
of climate change at the local level should be 
understood in order to prepare local communities 
for the implementation of adaptation and 
mitigation measures. Furthermore, documenting 
the perceived impacts of climate change and the 
countermeasures taken can help in the decision–
making process for climate change mitigation. 
Our study shows that people residing in the study 
area experienced an increase in both average 
annual rainfall and mean temperature. However, 
the perception of climate change may differ based 
on the socio–demographic characteristics of the 
local people. Similarly, the recoded data of the 
study areas have unsurprisingly supported the 
perception of local people. The data shows that 
the mean annual minimum and the maximum 
temperature have increased from 1990 to 2020. 
The yearly rainfall fluctuates from high to low, 
with alternative years showing variation in the 
amount of rainfall. Farmers have experienced 
climatic disasters, mostly floods and droughts, 
that had negatively impacted their livelihood 
options in terms of agricultural production, and 
water availability.

To reduce the impacts of climate change, the study 
shows that local people have accommodated 
several adaptation measures. The adaptation 
strategies such as rescheduling the cropping time, 
planting trees in their home gardens, constructing 
embankments along streams, and installing ICS 
systems. Though this research examined changes 
in rainfall, and temperature and gathered local 
perceptions, the exact quantification of socio–
economic losses resulting from changing climate 
was not possible due to a lack of baseline data. 
Comprehensive research should be done to 
determine the impact of climate change on 
diverse sectors, such as agriculture, biodiversity, 
disasters, and local livelihoods, to recommend 
specific solutions accordingly. Communities 

should be involved in developing plans that 
take traditional knowledge and combine it 
with scientific solutions to curb climate change 
disasters and increase climate resilience.

Conflict of interest: The author declares no 
conflict of interest.

Acknowledgments

The authors are thankful to all the respondents of 
the Shuklaphanta Municipality who responded 
to all the survey. Also, sincere thanks to two 
anonymous reviewers of this manuscript.

Funding: The study was financially supported 
by the National Trust for Nature Conservation–
Shuklaphanta Conservation Program and Ministry 
of Industry Tourism Forestry and Environment, 
Sudurpashchim province, Nepal.

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1

ANNEXES

ANNEX 1: QUESTIONNAIRE FOR HHs SURVEY:
A. General Introduction:
Date: Name of Interviewer:
Age: Gender/Sex: Male or Female
Address: Educational status:
Major Occupation: Household head:
Ethnicity: Year of Residence:
B. Climate Change (Temperature and rainfall) related Questions:
1)  Are you feeling any changes in climate pattern? Temperature or rainfall?

a) Yes b) No c) I do not know
2)  Are you feeling any change in the pattern of temperature in the last 30 years?

a) Increasing b) Decreasing c) I do not know
If yes, how, or what are 

A) Summer temperature is rising rapidly
B) Winter is warming
C) I don’t know

3) Are you feeling any change in the pattern of rainfall in the last 30 years?
a) Increasing
b) Decreasing
c) I do not know

If yes, how 
A) Rainy days are increasing or decreasing
B) Erratic rainfall happening frequently or not?
C) I don’t know

C. Climate induced impact perceived 
(i) Agricultural production
4)  Does the crop yield in your agricultural land is changing?

a) Increasing b) decreasing c) I don’t know
5) Which crop mostly affected in agricultural production?

a) ……….
b) …………
c) …………

(ii) Water resources availability
6)  Does there any changes in water availability or water in wells and streams?

a) Increasing b) decreasing c) I don’t know
7) Are there any changes in water supply (Handpump and boring pumps)

a) Yes b) No c) I don’t know



2

iii) Diseases/Mosquito presence
8) Are there any changes in mosquitoes than in the past

a) Increasing b) Decreasing c) I don’t know
9) Are there any incidences of malaria disease

a) Yes b) No c) I don’t know
iv) Birds/Waterfowl presence
10)	Are	there	any	changes	in	Birds	numbers	or	waterfowls	in	nearby	paddy	fields	and	streams

a) Yes b) No c) I don’t know
If yes, why birds number might have increased or decreased?

a) ………….
b) ………….
c)………….

D.  Climate induced disasters
11) Do you know about climatic disasters/hazards in this area such as a) Floods b) Drought c) forests 

fire	d)	hailstorms	e)	landslides	
a) Yes b) No c) I don’t know

If yes, are climatic hazards/disaster, increasing?
a) Increasing b) Decreasing c) I don’t know

12) Which of the following disasters occurs frequently? 
a)	Floods	b)	Drought	c)	forests	fire	d)	hailstorms	e)	landslides	f)	others	if	any.

(i) Flood 
13)	Are	there	any	incidences	of	flood

a) Yes b) No c) I don’t know
if yes,	does	the	intensity	of	flood	varying?

a) Increasing b) decreasing c) I don’t know
14)	What	is	the	impact	of	flood	in	this	area?

a) ………….
b) ………….
c)………….

15)	How	do	you	respond	to	flood,	or	activities	done	in	response	to	the	flood?
a) …………
b) ………..
c) ………. 

16)	In	your	opinion,	what	activities	need	to	adapt	immediately	by	government	to	adapt	with	flood?
a) ………….
b) ………….
c)………….

ii) Drought
17) Have you experienced drought in this area?

a) Yes b) No c) I don’t know



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If yes, (Year in which drought was must sever? Can you remember…………….)
18) Do the drought events change in the area?

a) Increasing b) decreasing c) I don’t know
19) Has drought affected agricultural production?

a) Yes b) No c) I don’t know
20) Are there any changes in water supply (Handpump and boring pumps)

a) Yes b) No c) I don’t know
21) What are the other effects of (drought)?

a) ………….
b) ………….
c)………….

22) If there is a prolonged period of drought, what activities do you conduct in agricultural land, as 
adaptation measures?
a) ………
b) ………
c)………

23) In your opinion, what activities need to adapt to adapt with drought?
a) ………….
b) ………….
c)………….

iii) Hailstorms
24) Have you noticed hailstorm occurrence in this area? 

a) Yes b) No c) I don’t know
25) If yes hailstorm events…

a) Increasing b) Decreasing c) I do not know
26) In your opinion, what activities need to adapt immediately to adapt with hailstorms?

a) ……. b) …….. c)………
iv) Forest fire
27) Are	there	any	forest	fire	incidences	in	the	area?

a) Yes b) No c) I don’t know
28) If yes,	forest	fire	events…

a) Increasing b) Decreasing c) I do not know
29)	What	are	the	effects	of	forest	fire	in	daily	life?

a) ………….
b) ………….
c)………….

30) How are you improving dependency on forest product such as fuelwood and fodder?
a) ………….
b) ………….
c)………….



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31)	In	your	opinion,	what	activities	need	to	adapt	immediately	by	government	to	mitigate	forest	fire?
a) ………….
b) ………….
c)………….



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ANNEX 2: CHECKLIST FOR KEY INFORMANTS

Name….
Age of Participant……….
Occupation/affiliation
Ward No…….
Specific	Character………

•	 Knowledge about climate change
•	 Since when you are feeling a change in climate
•	 Pattern of climate change (in terms of changes in rainfall and temperature)
•	 Major climatic disastrous events
•	 Effects of disaster/hazards on rural livelihood options
•	 Potential causes of disastrous events
•	 Impact of climate change on local livelihood
•	 Adaptation	measures	for	drought,	floods,	hailstorms,	forest	fire
•	 Mitigation	measures	for	drought,	floods,	hailstorms,	forest	fire