BECE. Newsletter 

Vol.18, No.2, 2024, BECE 1915 

 

 

 

 

The Impact of the Double Reduction Policy on Family 

Fertility Intention: A Study Based on a Survey of 29 

Provinces across China 

By Chen, X. & Ning, B. 
Correspondence to: Bentao Ning, East China Normal University, China. E-mail: 

btning@ses.ecnu.edu.cn 

NATION’S population is the bedrock of its socio-economic develop-

ment. In the 1990s, China began to enter the period of low fertility, and 

its total fertility rate has remained below the replacement level since. Family 

fertility intention, a major predictive indicator of family reproduction behav-

ior, constitutes an important parameter for projecting fertility levels, relating 

to the long-term development of the population. Facing the long-standing is-

sue of low fertility, most studies have focused on the impact of fertility poli-

cy on the size of the population with little research on the influence of educa-

tion policy. This study aims to explore the relationship between parents’ atti-

tudes towards the Double Reduction policy and their intention of having 

more than one child, as well as the mediating effects of family education ex-

penditure and parental educational anxiety on this relationship, using 10341 

parents of primary and secondary school students from 29 provincial admin-

istrative regions as research subjects.  

Research Findings: 

• Parental positive attitudes towards the Double Reduction policy 

could effectively predict the enhancement of parental intention of 

having more children. Compared with parents disagreeing with 

the policy, those endorsing it exhibit significantly higher inten-

tion of having more than one child. 

• The policy had a greater impact on the second-child fertility in-

tention than on the third-child fertility intention in parents. In the 

meantime, the policy is more impactful among parents with 

higher education levels than those with lower education levels in 

heightening their fertility intention. 

• Family education expenditure and parental educational anxiety 

had chain mediating effects on the relationship between the par-

ents’ attitudes towards the policy and their intention of having 

more than one child. The Double Reduction policy alleviates the 

financial burden of education on parents and their educational 

anxiety; at the same time, the mitigated parental educational anx-

A 

mailto:btning@ses.ecnu.edu.cn


 

Vol.18, No.2, 2024, BECE 1916 

iety, in return, further reduce the family’s educational spending, 

thus helping enhance the parents’ intention of having more chil-

dren. 

The authors give the following suggestions: 

• Improve the understanding of the Double Reduction policy 

in the parents of compulsory education students. This policy 

is a systematic one, involving multiple stakeholders. Its ef-

fectiveness is contingent on parents’ attitudes towards it and 

their willingness of cooperation. 

• Strengthening the execution of the Double Reduction policy. 

It is important to heighten the supervision of off-campus 

training institutions and improve the supporting measures 

for the implementation of the policy. 

• Increase the coordination between the education and popu-

lation policies. To boost the parents’ motivation for having 

more than one child, it is imperative to formulate a welfare 

policy framework that is family-friendly and family-

supportive. 

 
Source: Journal of East China Normal University, 2024; 42(5):75-85.