Differences in Educational Expectations between Urban and Rural Junior High School Students: Individual, Family, and Social Structures Yuna Hou, Fuli Li Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China Abstract. This paper studies the current differences in educational expectations between urban and rural students and explores the mechanism from the individual/family and school/society perspectives. The results show significant differences in expectations between rural and urban junior high school students for going on to higher education. In addition, urban students’ educational expectations are higher than that of rural and migrant students. These differences are caused by the students’ cognitive ability, family background, and school environment, among which the influence of family background is larger than that of cognitive ability, while the effect of the school’s hukou structure is the most important influencing factor. The results suggest that building a desirable school education atmosphere, alleviating hukou segregation in schools, and strengthening the integration of widely diverse school populations are important approaches to promoting educational and social equity in China. Best Evidence in Chinese Education 2022; 10(1):1315-1335. Doi: 10.15354/bece.22.ar003. How to Cite: Hou, Y., & Li, F. (2022). Differences in educational expectations between urban and rural junior high school students: Individual, family, and social structures. Best Evidence in Chinese Education, 10(1):1315-1335. Keywords: Educational Expectations, Rural–Urban Differences, Individual And Family Factors, Socio-structural Factors Hou & Li. Educational Expectation between Urban and Rural Junior High School Students. BECE, Vol.10, No.1, 2022 1316 About Authors: Fuli Li, Faculty of Education, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China, E-mail: lifuli0630@163.com Correspondence to: Yuna Hou, Research Institute for Education and Psychology of Southwestern Ethnic Groups & Faculty of Education, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China. E-mail: nana860611@swu.edu.cn Conflict of Interests: None. © 2022 Insights Publisher. All rights reserved. Creative Commons Non Commercial CC BY-NC: This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 License (http://www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) which permits non-commercial use, reproduction and distribution of the work without further permission provided the original work is attributed by the Insights Publisher. mailto:lifuli0630@163.com mailto:nana860611@swu.edu.cn Hou & Li. Educational Expectation between Urban and Rural Junior High School Students. BECE, Vol.10, No. 1, 2022 1317 Introduction DUCATION is the main channel for social mobility in modern society due to its important role in alleviating social stratification and promoting social fairness and justice. Following the promulgation of China’s reform and opening-up poli- cy, many advances have been made in the Chinese education system, and the overall education level in China has improved significantly. Simultaneously, the imbalance in education development has become increasingly prominent, including the gaps in edu- cational attainment between urban and rural residents, which has attracted much schol- arly attention. When measured by objective indicators, such as access to education and total schooling years, rural residents in China have always lagged behind urban resi- dents in their educational achievements (Li, 2014a; Wu, 2011; Wu, 2013). Influenced by the increasingly popular ideological trend of “education is useless” in rural society, some rural young people subjectively deny the value of education. Their reluctance to pursue higher education may further widen the educational gap between urban and rural areas (Li & Wu, 2015). The low expectations for education of young people in rural China may have long-term consequences for their individual development. In recent years, the far- reaching significance of educational expectations for social equity and justice in China has received little scholarly attention. Chinese society has always been more concerned about “who receives education,” than about “who expects to receive education” and “how much education they expect” (Ding & Wang, 2016). Chinese academia has long focused on indicators such as education acquisition and attainment, which measure eq- uity in educational outcomes, but few studies have discussed the indicator of education- al expectations, which measures equity in the educational process. Fewer studies have explored the differences in educational expectations between different household regis- tration groups from a micro level. As an important indicator, educational expectations can effectively and stably predict educational and status attainment. If we can under- stand the generation of individuals’ educational expectations, it will be easier for us to explain their educational attainment (Sewell & Hauser, 1972). Therefore, exploring the differences in educational expectations between urban and rural residents provides an ideal breakthrough point to understand the current educational development gap be- tween urban and rural areas, which has important practical significance for Chinese so- ciety. The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China un- derlined the importance of compulsory education in rural areas and proposed strategies to ensure that every child can equally enjoy high-quality education. Important modern social goals include supplying suitable education for all talented people, maximizing the development and use of social human capitals, supporting the welfare of the whole so- ciety, giving free rein to individual expertise, and satisfying individual pursuits. Indi- viduals and their families must make wise educational choices to achieve these goals, but society must also provide sufficient educational opportunities to facilitate personal educational decisions. E Hou & Li. Educational Expectation between Urban and Rural Junior High School Students. BECE, Vol.10, No. 1, 2022 1318 We used baseline data from the 2013–2014 China Education Panel Survey (CEPS) to discuss the current urban–rural differences in the educational expectations of junior high school students in China. This study explored the influence of students’ per- sonal cognitive ability, family background, and socio-structural factors (mainly school segregation caused by the household registration policy [hukou]) on the educational expectations of young people with household permanent residence in rural areas. In addition, we examined the role of these factors in narrowing the rural–urban gap in edu- cational expectations. Hopefully, our findings will trigger an extensive discussion of the severe problem of low educational expectations among young rural residents in China and the potential consequences. Theoretical Framework and Literature Review Over the past 50 years, Western scholars have explored educational expectations from micro and macro perspectives. The micro perspective at the individual and family levels mainly originated from the Wisconsin model, while the Coleman report initiated a mac- ro-level perspective of social structure. Personal and Family Factors Leading to Educational Expectations Since the 1950s, the body of research based on the Wisconsin school has accumulated several empirical studies modeling the formation and influencing factors of personal educational and occupational expectations. Early studies have mainly focused on the influence of individual and family factors on the formation of students’ individual edu- cational expectations. Gender, cognitive ability, and family socioeconomic status (SES) have been shown to be key factors affecting teenagers’ educational expectations (Sewell, Haller, & Straus, 1957). Later studies have tried to control for these three variables in the model when exploring individual educational expectations and status acquisition. In 1967, the Wisconsin school set up a linear regression model to study the influence of gender, cognitive ability, and family SES on individual educational expectations. The school then explored the influence of these four explanatory variables on individual educational attainment (Sewell & Shah, 1967). As a mediating path, educational expec- tations have been shown to explain a large part of the impact of cognitive ability and family SES on individual educational attainment. Even after controlling for individual cognitive ability and family SES, educational expectations still have an independent and significant effect on educational attainment. Social Structures and Educational Expectations Early Wisconsin studies discussed the factors influencing educational expectations, fo- cusing on the process of individual self-selection at the micro level with the assumption that individuals’ educational achievements are determined by what they choose to do and how they do it. However, the reality is that individual educational choices are per- formed within a changing social structure; therefore, individuals’ educational achieve- ments are mainly influenced by what society allows them to do (Kerckhoff, 1976). The Hou & Li. Educational Expectation between Urban and Rural Junior High School Students. BECE, Vol.10, No. 1, 2022 1319 main criticism of the early Wisconsin body of research is that the models used are too sociopsychological and ignore the impact of macro-level socio-structural factors on individual educational expectations. In 1959, Wilson launched a discussion of the influence of social class segrega- tion on students’ educational expectations. Wilson showed that even when personal and family backgrounds were controlled for, the social class composition within schools still had a significant impact on individual educational expectations. For example, stu- dents who attended schools with a majority of students from the dominant social class usually had higher educational expectations than students in schools with a majority of students from lower social classes (Wilson, 1959). In 1964, the Coleman report dis- cussed ethnic segregation in American schools and found that social class segregation based on the ethnic composition of the school was the most important factor affecting students’ academic development besides their family SES. The report found that Amer- ican schools were ethnically segregated. For example, schools attended by White and ethnic minority groups (mainly Black students) had completely different ethnic compo- sition ratios, and that minority students clustered in schools where students of the same ethnicity were concentrated. This kind of school segregation was detrimental to the aca- demic achievements of minority students (Coleman, 1966). Socio-structural factors affecting individual educational expectations include the students’ living environment, school district and environment, and the institutions and policies in the labor market, which influence the distribution of different social groups in the social stratification system (Sewell, 1963). An important socio-structural factor leading to educational inequality is school segregation based on social groups’ residence clusters. Students with different social characteristics gather in different school districts or schools, instead of being evenly distributed within the same school district or among schools. This informal school segregation (also known as school isola- tion) leads to significant differences in student composition between school dis- tricts/schools (Blau, 1977). On the one hand, this social structure will cause disparities in formal institutional arrangements, such as differences in community library facilities, teacher allocation, curricula, and school teaching arrangements. On the other hand, the social structure may also cause differences in informal social mechanisms, such as the local community’s normative values, levels of aspiration, school value system, majority behavioral norms, and the school atmosphere created by peer groups. All of these dif- ferences affect individual educational expectations, especially for young people. These results are independent of individual abilities and family SES (Rogoff, 1953). In the late 1960s, the Wisconsin body of research began to consider the impact of socio-structural factors, such as residence segregation, on educational expectations. The community, neighborhood, and school district environments (usually measured by urban–rural division, population size, and SES composition) where individuals live and studies have been found to have a significant effect on their educational and career ex- pectations (Sewell, 1964; Sewell & Armer, 1966). However, when factors such as stu- dents’ gender, cognitive ability, and family SES are controlled for, the influence of the- se socio-structural variables decreases greatly, or even disappears. Based on this finding, Sewell, Hauser, Springer, and Hauser (2003) suggested that studies on educational ex- pectations and attainment should focus on common process factors within school dis- tricts and schools, rather than background factors between school district and schools. Hou & Li. Educational Expectation between Urban and Rural Junior High School Students. BECE, Vol.10, No. 1, 2022 1320 School segregation is the result of residence division and the underlying phenomenon is the local competition of social groups for the resources and social status represented by schools (Fiel, 2015). School segregation in the basic education system in China has become a com- mon social phenomenon. The historic policy of “key schools” in China has led to quali- ty differentiation in the public school system, while the “entering school nearby” policy has capitalized on the differentiated educational resources linked to house prices in the school district. Local residents select schools for their children by purchasing houses in high-quality school districts, which lead to the social segregation of school districts. As a result, the wealthy social class helps their children to enter high-quality schools by buying “school district housing,” while children from the disadvantaged social class who cannot afford school district housing are forced to enter lower-quality schools. This leads to school segregation based on residence and school district (Feng & Lu, 2010; Zheng & Wang, 2014). This segregation based on household permanent residence (hukou) is one of the main forms of school segregation in China. On the one hand, the allocation of students with different hukou status is unbalanced among rural and urban regions. The distribution of students’ hukou status among different regions largely de- cides the social class composition of these regions. The heterogeneity of social class composition in urban schools is higher than that in rural schools (Liang & Wu, 2016). On the other hand, with the large-scale migration of China’s rural population to cities and the continuous adjustment of educational policies for the children of migrant work- ers, the government allows migrant students in compulsory education to study in places of residence other than their registered household permanent residence. However, Chi- na’s current educational policy still sets a large threshold for admission and further edu- cation for non-local students because of limited urban educational resources. The chil- dren of rural migrant workers are often segregated from specific living areas, schools, and school districts because of the high cost of school selection in cities; therefore, they are often concentrated in private schools for migrant children with poor teaching facili- ties and low-quality teachers. At present, the social classes in China’s rural and urban schools are highly segregated. As a result, rural or urban school students with disadvan- taged family backgrounds tend to prematurely lose interest in education because of neg- ative peer group influences caused by school segregation. Summary Rich empirical data have been accumulated in the mature Western research literature on students’ educational expectations and their influencing factors. Personal characteristics, family backgrounds, and school structure have been found to be the main factors that jointly determine students’ educational expectations and decisions. The educational stratification literature in China has mainly focused on result-directed indicators, such as educational attainment. The predictive role of educational expectations in educational attainment has not been explored, which ignores its importance as a breakthrough point for understanding the current differences in educational attainment among different groups in China. Most studies of educational expectations have not considered rural– urban differences, and those that have compared the educational expectations of social groups with different hukou status at the micro level are even rarer (Ding & Wang, Hou & Li. Educational Expectation between Urban and Rural Junior High School Students. BECE, Vol.10, No. 1, 2022 1321 2016). In exploring the factors influencing educational expectations, such as the early Wisconsin body of research, most studies have focused on the process of individual self-selection and only examined the effects of individual and family backgrounds at the micro level (Liu, Zhang, & Li, 2015; Wang & Shi, 2014; Yang, Yao, & Zhang, 2016). Few studies have explored the effects of macro-level social factors (Liang & Wu, 2016; Wu, Hang & Liu, 2017) and even fewer studies have measured macro and micro factors in addition to their interactions simultaneously (Huang, 2017). Some studies have tend- ed to attribute the differences in educational expectations between urban and rural areas to the uneven distribution of educational resources influenced by educational policies and have not considered the effects of socio-structural factors (e.g., residence and school segregation), which are common concerns in Western studies of educational ex- pectations. This study used the Wisconsin educational attainment model based on the ur- ban–rural education gap in China in an attempt to close the empirical research gap in Chinese educational expectations and explore the differences in educational expecta- tions between rural and urban junior high school students from macro and micro per- spectives. Research Design Data This paper used baseline data from the 2013–2014 CEPS designed and implemented by the National Survey Research Center (NSRC) at Renmin University of China. The pro- ject took junior high school students in Grades 7 and 9 as the survey objects and applied a stratified multistage sampling design with probability proportional to size (PPS), in which four sampling units were selected in turn: i.e., county (school district); school; class; and students, parents, head teachers, main subject teachers, and school adminis- trators. In total, 19,487 junior high school students in 438 classrooms from 112 schools in 28 counties (districts) in mainland China were selected in the baseline survey. This study used the data from student, parent, and school questionnaires, which were matched with student and school IDs. Research Questions and Hypotheses This study sought to answer the following questions: Are there any significant differ- ences in educational expectations between rural and urban junior high school students? Can the students’ personal characteristics, family environment, or socio-structural fac- tors (such as school district/school segregation) explain these differences? Based on these research questions, this study proposed the following research hypotheses: Hypothesis 1: The educational expectations of rural hukou students are signifi- cantly lower than those of urban hukou students. Hypothesis 2: Individual (such as gender and cognitive ability) and family fac- tors (such as SES) limit the educational expectations of rural hukou students. Hou & Li. Educational Expectation between Urban and Rural Junior High School Students. BECE, Vol.10, No. 1, 2022 1322 Hypothesis 3: Socio-structural factors (such as the school district’s environ- ment or school atmosphere) mean that the educational expectations of rural hukou students lag behind those of urban hukou students, even if the students’ individual and family factors are controlled for in the model. Research Model and Variables We established the following linear regression model to answer these research questions and verify the research hypotheses: EDU_EXPijp = β0 + β1STU_TYPEi + β2βi + β3SCHj + β4CTYp + εijp  Dependent Variable In this study, the dependent variable was the educational expectations of junior high school students (EDU_EXPijp) 1 . The CEPS student questionnaire asked junior high school students about their highest expected level of education using the question: “What is the highest degree of education you expect to receive?” Responses to this question had nine options: i.e., drop out, junior high school, technical/vocational senior high school, ordinary senior high school, college degree, Bachelor’s degree, Master’s degree, and doctoral degree. We recoded this categorical variable to form a dichoto- mous variable of “whether students expect a Bachelor’s degree or higher,” where yes = 1 and no = 0.  Independent Variables I. Student Type by Urban or Rural Hukou (STU_TYPEi) The core explanatory variable of this study was the urban or rural category of students, which was used to examine the effect of registered household permanent residence (hukou) as a socio-structural factor. Due to the large population of migrant workers in China, the registered household permanent residence (Hukou) 2 of some students differs from their current place of residence. Therefore, two dimensions could be observed among the students in this study: i.e., their household permanent residence (rural vs. urban hukou) and their place of residence during the survey. The latter dimension in- cluded information about individuals’ rural–urban mobility. Based on our research needs, we recoded the original student category variable from the CEPS dataset to form a student category variable with three categories: (a) rural students, those with agricul- tural hukou (registered household permanent residence) from the local county (district); (b) migrant students, those with agricultural hukou from other counties (districts); and (c) urban students, those with nonagricultural hukou in local (district) or other counties (districts). We added dummy variables for the urban and rural student categories to the regression model and used urban students as the reference group to examine the differ- ences in educational expectations between the two types of students. II. Personal and Family Background Factors (βi) Based on the Wisconsin educational attainment model, we first examined the impact of students’ personal and family factors on their educational expectations, including gen- der (male = 1; female = 0) and cognitive ability (the CEPS designed a set of cognitive Hou & Li. Educational Expectation between Urban and Rural Junior High School Students. BECE, Vol.10, No. 1, 2022 1323 ability test questions for junior high school students). The test questions did not involve specific memorization of knowledge related to school curricula, but focused on measur- ing the students’ logical thinking and problem-solving abilities, including three lan- guage dimensions (graphics, calculation, and logic) with 11 constructs in total. The original cognitive ability test scores were transformed into standardized scores using item response theory with three parameters, leading to internationally comparable and nationally standardized results. Based on the high-to-low value ranking of this variable, we divided the students into three roughly equal groups to form a cognitive ability vari- able with three categories: low cognitive ability group = 1; medium cognitive ability group = 2; and high cognitive ability group = 3. Finally, considering family SES, we used factor analysis to transform the variables of both parents’ education and occupa- tions, in addition to each family’s economic conditions, into common factors to meas- ure family SES. We divided the students into three roughly equal groups based on their high-to-low family SES scores to form a three-category variable to measure family SES: low-SES group = 1; medium-SES group = 2; and high-SES group = 3. III. Socio-Structural Factors (SCHj) To more deeply explore the sources of the differences in educational expectations be- tween urban and rural junior high school students, we chose the following three socio- structural variables at the school district/school level: (a) school location: township and rural areas = 1, marginal urban areas and urban–rural fringe = 2; and cities/counties’ central urban areas = 3; (b) proportion of students in schools with agricultural hukou; and (c) proportion of students in schools with local county (district) hukou. There was a high degree of consistency between residence and school segregation; therefore, the school location variable could be used to examine the influence of the school district environment on students’ educational expectations. The proportion of students in schools with agricultural hukou and the proportion of students in schools with local county (district) hukou measured the influence of peer groups on the students’ educa- tional expectations.  Control Variables To improve the quality of our model, we also controlled for other factors that may af- fect students’ educational expectations at different levels: age, ethnicity (1 = ethnic mi- nority, 0 = Han nationality), number of siblings at the individual/family level; school properties (1 = public school, 2 = private school), school quality ranking (1 = poor to medium, 2 = upper middle, 3 = the best) at the school level, and district/county fixed effects (CTYp) at the district/county level. The distribution of the main variables used in the study for the urban or rural student category variable is shown in Table 1. The proportion of students with low cognitive ability or low family SES was much higher among rural and migrant student groups than among urban students. In contrast, students with high cognitive ability or high SES were clustered in the urban student group. Rural junior high school students were mostly clustered in rural schools, while urban junior high school students were mostly clustered in central city schools and migrant junior high school students were distributed among schools in both urban and rural areas. Hou & Li. Educational Expectation between Urban and Rural Junior High School Students. BECE, Vol.10, No. 1, 2022 1324 Table 1. Distribution of the Main Variables for Rural and Urban Students. Variable Rural Students Migrant Students Urban Students Male 51.57% 53.57% 50.98% Cognitive ability: Low 39.68% 35.29% 26.73% Cognitive ability: Medium 34.46% 34.04% 32.07% Cognitive ability: High 25.86% 30.67% 41.20% SES: Low 49.85% 37.40% 16.38% SES: Medium 31.75% 37.22% 33.95% SES: High 18.40% 25.37% 49.67% School location: Township/rural area 56.57% 28.33% 19.07% School location: Urban–rural fringe 25.06% 35.88% 22.64% School location: Central urban area 18.37% 35.79% 58.30% Proportion of students in schools with agricultural hukou 0.729 (0.173) 0.538 (0.237) 0.377 (0.259) Proportion of students in schools with local county (district) hukou 0.901 (0.132) 0.605 (0.243) 0.798 (0.172) Note: The standard deviation of the mean is presented in brackets. SES, socioeconomic status. Table 2. Descriptive Statistics for the Educational Expectations of Urban and Rural Junior High School Students. Category Male Female Overall Mean (SD) % Sample Size Mean (SD) % Sample Size Mean (SD) % Sample Size Rural 15.746 (3.709) 53.62% 4,129 16.326 (3.260) 64.93% 3,972 16.041 (3.507) 59.17% 8,101 Migrant 15.767 (3.678) 55.14% 1,119 16.443 (3.173) 68.45% 1,008 16.077 (3.465) 61.45% 2,127 Urban 16.725 (3.523) 68.58% 4,224 17.179 (3.067) 78.78% 4,184 16.951 (3.311) 73.66% 8,408 Overall 16.192 (3.654) 60.47% 9,742 16.729 (3.190) 71.64% 9,164 16.456 (3.444) 65.96% 18,636 Note: The mean and standard deviation (SD) describe the average level and difference in educational expecta- tions of junior high school students, respectively. The percentage describes junior high school students who expected to obtain a Bachelor’s degree or higher. In the schools attended by the rural student group in our study, more than 70% of the students came from rural areas and about 90% were registered in the local county. More than half of the students in the schools attended by the migrant student group in our study had rural household registration. About 60% of these students were registered in the local county/district, while in the schools attended by the urban student group in Hou & Li. Educational Expectation between Urban and Rural Junior High School Students. BECE, Vol.10, No. 1, 2022 1325 our study, only one third of the students were from rural areas and nearly 80% were registered in the local county/district. Results Descriptive Statistical Analysis Without adding any control variables to our model, the proportion of junior high school students who expected to obtain a Bachelor’s degree or higher showed a monotonically increasing trend among rural and urban students (Table 2). That is, rural junior high school students were less likely than migrant junior high school students to expect to obtain a bachelor’s degree, while migrant junior high school students had lower expec- tations than urban junior high school students. Comparable results were obtained from the male and female samples, which is consistent with Hypothesis 1. Difference Test: Individual and Family Factors To verify the influence of individual and family factors on the differences in education- al expectations between urban and rural junior high school students, we tested the sig- nificance of the differences in the mean values of their educational expectations. The results are reported by the students’ cognitive ability and family SES.  Cognitive Ability Table 3 presents the pretest (difference-test) results, which took urban junior high school students as the reference group and reported the difference in the proportions of rural and migrant junior high school students and urban junior high school students ex- pecting to obtain a bachelor’s degree or higher. The z-test results showed the level of significance. The results for the differences in educational expectations between urban and rural junior high school students without cognitive ability are shown in the bottom row of Table 3 for the full sample. The proportion of rural and migrant junior high school students who expected to obtain a bachelor’s degree or higher were significantly lower than that of urban junior high school students. After grouping the students by cognitive ability, although the differences in educational expectations between urban and rural junior high school students were somewhat smaller, they did not disappear completely. There were still significant differences in educational expectations between urban and rural areas within each cognitive ability group. Specifically, for male students, the dif- ferences in educational expectations between urban and rural areas in the low cognitive ability group were reduced greatly, while obvious differences were observed in the edu- cational expectations between urban and rural areas in the medium cognitive ability group. Interestingly, the differences in educational expectations between migrant and urban junior high school students in the high cognitive ability group were reduced sig- nificantly. These results showed that the experience of urban life and the school envi- ronment had a positive effect on the educational expectations of rural young people with high cognitive ability. The results for the female sample showed that the differ- ences in educational expectations between urban and rural students in the medium and Hou & Li. Educational Expectation between Urban and Rural Junior High School Students. BECE, Vol.10, No. 1, 2022 1326 Table 3. Effects of Individual and Family Factors on the Educational Expecta- tions of Obtaining a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher among Urban and Rural Junior High School Students. Variable Male Female Rural Migrant Rural Migrant Cognitive Ability Low Percentage 0.407 (0.012) 0.394 (0.024) 0.524 (0.013) 0.543 (0.028) Pretest diff. = −0.084 diff. = −0.098 diff. = −0.092 diff. = −0.073 z = −4.436*** z = −3.455*** z = −4.597*** z = −2.333*** Sample size 1,591 419 1,572 328 Medium Percentage 0.546 (0.013) 0.544 (0.026) 0.686 (0.012) 0.712 (0.024) Pretest diff. = −0.140 diff. = −0.141 diff. = −0.087 diff. = −0.061 z = −7.478*** z = −5.015*** z = −5.174*** z = −2.396*** Sample size 1,422 364 1,391 358 High Percentage 0.708 (0.014) 0.756 (0.023) 0.795 (0.013) 0.798 (0.022) Pretest diff. = −0.114 diff. = −0.065 diff. = −0.104 diff. = −0.101 z = −7.091*** z = −2.801*** z = −7.644*** z = −5.197*** Sample size 1,116 336 1,009 322 SES Low Percentage 0.512 (0.011) 0.547 (0.025) 0.627 (0.011) 0.669 (0.024) Pretest diff. = 0.006 diff. = 0.041 diff. = −0.003 diff. = 0.039 z = 0.250 z = 1.299 z = −0.122 z = 1.303 Sample size 1,944 411 2,104 393 Medium Percentage 0.574 (0.013) 0.550 (0.025) 0.691 (0.013) 0.706 (0.023) Pretest diff. = −0.057 diff. = −0.082 diff. = −0.071 diff. = −0.056 z = −3.113*** z = −3.000*** z = −4.096*** z = −2.259** Sample size 1,396 404 1,201 388 High Percentage 0.527 (0.018) 0.559 (0.028) 0.643 (0.019) 0.674 (0.031) Pretest diff. = −0.251 diff. = −0.219 diff. = −0.218 diff. = −0.187 z = −13.266*** z = −8.251*** z = −12.376*** z = −7.334*** Sample size 789 304 667 227 Full sample Percentage 0.536 (0.008) 0.551 (0.015) 0.649 (0.008) 0.685 (0.015) Pretest diff. = −0.150 diff. = −0.134 diff. = −0.138 diff. = −0.103 z = −14.031*** z = −8.428*** z = −13.926*** z = −6.968*** Sample size 4,129 1,119 3,972 1,008 Note: 1. The reference group for the mean difference test in the table includes all urban students; 2. * p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01. low cognitive ability groups were smaller, but the differences in educational expecta- tions between urban and rural students in the high cognitive ability group showed little change compared with the full sample results. The above results indicated that the observed differences in educational expec- tations between urban and rural junior high school students were not entirely due to Hou & Li. Educational Expectation between Urban and Rural Junior High School Students. BECE, Vol.10, No. 1, 2022 1327 their differing cognitive abilities. After controlling for cognitive ability, significant dif- ferences in educational expectations were still observed among rural and urban junior high school students with high cognitive ability. A possible reason for this finding is that some rural hukou students hope to live and work in rural areas in the future and the educational requirements for positions in the rural labor market are lower than those of the urban labor market, which may affect these students’ judgment of the value and role of education. Therefore, we further tested the difference in educational expectations between rural junior high school students in the high cognitive ability group who want to stay in rural areas or small towns and those who want to stay in big cities or abroad to verify our findings. The results showed that the educational expectations of rural stu- dents who plan to live in big cities were significantly higher than those of their counter- parts who plan to live in rural areas or small towns (diff. = −0.209, z = −9.394), alt- hough both student groups were in the high cognitive ability group. Another possible reason is that even if they work in cities, most rural hukou residents can only enter the secondary labor market, in which education qualifications have a very limited effect on their social mobility opportunities. This may also affect rural students’ judgment of the value and role of education, and subsequently their educational expectations (Li & Wu, 2015).  Family Background The bottom row of Table 3 for the full sample presents the results for the test of the dif- ferences in educational expectations between urban and rural junior high school stu- dents without grouping the students by family SES. The proportion of rural and migrant junior high school students who expected to obtain a bachelor’s degree or higher were significantly lower than that of urban junior high school students. After grouping the students according to their family background, the differences in educational expecta- tions between rural and migrant junior high school students and urban junior high school students with low SES were no longer significant regardless of gender. In other words, family SES explained the lower educational expectations of rural and migrant junior high school students from disadvantaged families. Although the differences in educational expectations between rural and migrant junior high school students and ur- ban junior high school students with medium family SES were still significant, they were smaller than for the low SES group. Compared with the above results for cognitive ability, family background factors explained the differences in educational expectations between urban and rural junior high school students better than cognitive ability factors. However, it should be noted that the differences in educational expectations between rural and migrant junior high school students and urban junior high school students from advantaged family backgrounds increased compared with the results for the full sample. This result showed that the overall differences in educational expectations be- tween urban and rural junior high school students were mainly reflected in the advan- taged social class, reflecting the heterogeneity of the influence of family SES on the educational expectations of these students. That is, the positive influence of family background on urban students was greater than on rural and migrant students. A possi- ble reason is that as the rural economy in China develops and parents of rural students increase their income and professional status gradually, they may still not know how to use their family capital to create a good educational atmosphere within the family. Such Hou & Li. Educational Expectation between Urban and Rural Junior High School Students. BECE, Vol.10, No. 1, 2022 1328 an atmosphere would help their children to form higher educational expectations com- pared with children of urban parents. Compared with rural families, Liu, Zhang, and Li (2015) found that urban parents’ participation in their children’s education is more help- ful in increasing young people’s educational expectations. To verify this result, we se- lected the “parental involvement” variable to measure the degree of activation of family capital and tested the difference in the degree of parental involvement between urban and rural junior high school students with advantaged family backgrounds. The results showed that the involvement of parents of rural junior high school students was signifi- cantly lower than that of parents of urban junior high school students (diff. = −0.521, t = −18.191), despite their similar family SES, while the differences in the degree of paren- tal involvement between urban and rural students with poor family backgrounds were not significant.  Linear Regression Analysis: Socio-structural Factors The results of the previous difference test showed that students’ personal and family factors, including gender, cognitive ability, and family SES, could explain only part of the differences in educational expectations between urban and rural junior high school students. Therefore, we established a linear regression model to further explore the in- fluence of socio-structural factors, including the type of school district (urban vs. rural) and the household registration structure of school populations, on the level of and dif- ferences in educational expectations between urban and rural junior high school stu- dents. Model 1 in Table 4 was a baseline model containing the control variables, which was used to test the differences in educational expectations between urban and rural junior high school students. The results showed that the proportion of rural and migrant junior high school students who expected to obtain a Bachelor’s degree or higher was significantly lower than that of urban students. Specifically, rural and mi- grant junior high school students respectively had 4.6% and 5.3% lower educational expectations than did urban junior high school students. Models 2–5 controlled for the students’ gender, gender and cognitive ability, gender and family background, and the three variables simultaneously, respectively. After controlling for individual and family factors, the difference in the proportion of students who expected to obtain a Bachelor’s degree or higher between rural and migrant junior high students decreased, but did not disappear completely, which further verified the results of the previous difference test. In the next step, we explored the socio-structural factors that influence the difference in educational expectations between urban and rural junior high school students. Based on Model 5, Model 6 added the first socio-structural factor, that is, the urban/rural proper- ties of the school districts. The proportion of junior high school students who expected to obtain a bachelor’s degree or higher in the urban–rural fringe and the central urban areas was 5.4% and 6.8% higher than that in villages and towns, respectively. However, the addition of this variable to the model did not significantly change the significance of the differences in educational expectations between urban and rural junior high school students. This indicated that the school district environment had little influence on the differences in educational expectations between urban and rural junior high school stu- dents. This result is similar to early Wisconsin studies of the influence of residential segmentation on educational expectations. Based on Model 5, Model 7 added the se- Hou & Li. Educational Expectation between Urban and Rural Junior High School Students. BECE, Vol.10, No. 1, 2022 1329 Table 4. Regression Analysis of the Factors Influencing Whether Urban and Rural junior High School Students Expected to Obtain a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher. Explanatory Variable Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5 Model 6 Model 7 Model 8 Rural Students −0.046 *** (0.009) −0.045 *** (0.009) −0.039 *** (0.008) −0.034 *** (0.009) −0.029 *** (0.008) −0.022 *** (0.008) −0.008 (0.009) −0.032 *** (0.008) Migrant Students −0.053 *** 0.012) −0.048 *** (0.012) −0.039 *** (0.012) −0.038 *** (0.012) −0.030 ** (0.012) −0.029 ** (0.012) −0.017* (0.012) −0.019 (0.012) Male −0.112 *** (0.007) −0.110 *** (0.006) −0.113 *** (0.007) −0.111 *** (0.006) −0.111 *** (0.006) −0.111 *** (0.006) −0.111 *** (0.006) Cognitive Ability: Medium 0.117 *** (0.008) 0.118 *** (0.008) 0.115 *** (0.008) 0.115 *** (0.008) 0.117 *** (0.008) Cognitive Ability: High 0.249 *** (0.008) 0.248 *** (0.008) 0.245 *** (0.008) 0.243 *** (0.008) 0.246 *** (0.008) Ses: Medium 0.022 *** (0.009) 0.017 ** (0.008) 0.013 (0.008) 0.012 (0.008) 0.017 ** (0.008) Ses: High 0.064 *** (0.009) 0.060 *** (0.009) 0.056 *** (0.009) 0.052 *** (0.009) 0.059 *** (0.009) School Location: Urban–Rural Fringe 0.054 *** (0.011) School Location: Central Urban Area 0.068 *** (0.012) Proportion of Students in School with Agricultural Hukou −0.216 *** (0.025) Proportion of Students in Schools with Local County (District) Hukou 0.116 *** (0.030) Control variables Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes District/County Fixed Effects Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes R2 0.064 0.076 0.111 0.078 0.113 0.115 0.117 0.114 Sample Size 18,636 18,636 18,636 18,636 18,636 18,636 18,636 18,636 Note: 1. Robust standard errors are presented in brackets; 2. * p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01; 3. The refer- ence group for the cognitive ability dummy variable is the low ability sample and the reference group for the SES dummy variable is the low-SES sample. The reference group for the school location type dummy variable is township and rural areas. cond socio-structural factor used in this study, i.e., the proportion of students with agri- cultural household registration in schools. Compared with the urban/rural residence cat- egory variable, this school structural factor better explained the educational expecta- tions of junior high school students. Specifically, for every 1% increase in the propor- tion of students with agricultural household registration in schools, the proportion of junior high school students who expected to obtain a Bachelor’s degree or higher de- creased by 21.6%. Moreover, the addition of this variable made the originally signifi- cant differences in educational expectations between rural and urban junior high school students completely disappear and greatly reduced the differences in educational expec- tations between migrant and urban junior high school students. After controlling for the Hou & Li. Educational Expectation between Urban and Rural Junior High School Students. BECE, Vol.10, No. 1, 2022 1330 students’ individual and family factors, the proportion of peers with similar experiences of rural life within the schools attended by rural junior high school students largely ex- plained the observed disadvantages in the educational expectations of rural junior high school students. If rural students with similar demographic characteristics and family background to urban students enter schools with a high proportion of urban students, their initial disadvantages in educational expectations will be reduced greatly. Based on Model 5, Model 8 added the third socio-structural factor of this study, i.e., the propor- tion of students in schools with residence registration in the local county/district. This variable had a strong and significant impact on the educational expectations of junior high school students. Specifically, for every 1% increase in the proportion of students in school with local registered household permanent residence, the proportion of students expecting to obtain a bachelor’s degree or higher increased by 11.6%. The addition of this school structural variable in the model eliminated the originally significant differ- ences in educational expectations between migrant and urban junior high school stu- dents. After controlling for individual and family factors, the proportion of peers with similar experiences of rural–urban migration in the schools attended by migrant junior high school students largely explained the observed disadvantages in their educational expectations. If migrant students with similar demographic characteristics and family background to urban students enter schools with a high proportion of local students, their initial disadvantages in educational expectations will be greatly reduced. Discussion, Conclusion, and Policy Implications Based on baseline data from the 2013–2014 CEPS, this study explored the current dif- ferences in educational expectations between urban and rural high school students and their influencing factors in China. Micro-level individual/family factors and macro- level socio-structural factors jointly determined the educational expectations of junior high school students and the different educational expectations between urban and rural areas. First, the significant differences in educational expectations between rural and migrant junior high school students and their expectations for receiving higher educa- tion were significantly lower than those of urban junior high school students. Cognitive ability and family background only explained a small part of the differences in educa- tional expectations between urban and rural junior high school students, with family background being more important than cognitive ability. The household registration structure (hukou composition) of the schools explained most of the differences in edu- cational expectations between urban and rural junior high school students. The government and all sectors of society should be concerned about the low educational expectations of young people in rural Chinese society identified in this study. First, with the rapid development of urbanization in China, young people will increasingly leave the countryside to find jobs in cities. When these young people com- pete with urban residents for work, their low educational expectations may hinder their career development. Opportunities for people with rural household registration status to become urban citizens are extremely limited. Indeed, this factor has been shown to have a significantly positive correlation with individuals’ education level (Li, 2014b). Rural young people with low academic qualifications may become migrant workers in labor- Hou & Li. Educational Expectation between Urban and Rural Junior High School Students. BECE, Vol.10, No. 1, 2022 1331 intensive industries in the future, such as the manufacturing, construction, and service industries, where they have to take jobs with poor working conditions, low salaries, and low social status. Therefore, they may struggle to truly integrate into urban society (China Population and Family Planning Commission, 2010). In their future careers, most rural young people with low educational expectations will have to face this obsta- cle, which is difficult to overcome. Second, China is vigorously implementing a nation- al rural revitalization strategy, in which economic developments and infrastructure con- struction in rural areas lead to increasingly higher requirements for experts in agricul- tural scientific knowledge and technology. However, the Chinese education system must be developed to cultivate the necessary expertise. Young people with hukou who do not go to work in cities but continue to live and work in rural areas may also be hin- dered in their rural career development because of their lower educational expectations. Second, the results of this study showed that the difference in cognitive ability based on innate inheritance was not the main reason for the differences in educational expectations between urban and rural junior high school students in China. Conversely, a nurturing home environment (such as parental involvement) based on family SES (in- cluding parental education, occupation, and income) limited the expectations of rural students to receive higher education. Rural students’ family background constraints made it difficult for them to make rational educational choices based on their own abili- ties. Today, science and technology are increasingly becoming decisive forces for soci- oeconomic development in global market competition. To maintain an advantage in global science and technology competition, China greatly needs well-educated experts in professional fields such as engineering, physics, and biology. However, if talented young people with high cognitive abilities from rural areas do not have correspondingly high educational expectations, it will be difficult for them to obtain the necessary edu- cation and training opportunities for desirable social occupations in the future. Thus, these young people will be unable to realize their full potential. This potential “talent loss” crisis will lead to wasted human resources in rural areas of China, which will af- fect the maximization of social welfare (Sewell, 1963). Third, the environment of the school district where junior high school students live had little influence on their educational expectations. However, school segmenta- tion based on registered household permanent residence, which is typically observed in the characteristics of peer groups within a school, had a major influence on the educa- tional expectations of students with rural hukou. The total proportion of rural students with local registered household permanent residence greatly restricted their educational expectations, while the proportion of students with non-local registered household per- manent residence in schools also greatly restricted migrant students’ educational expec- tations. In China, segregation based on school institutions and policies is an intermedi- ary mechanism in which macro-level socio-structural factors and micro-level family backgrounds work together on individuals’ educational decision-making. Students with similar disadvantaged backgrounds tend to cluster in similarly poor schools or even within the same class, which leads to a corresponding segregation in the allocation of teachers, curricula, and teaching arrangements in schools. In addition, the school at- mosphere created by most peer groups will differ. These differences may have an im- pact on the educational expectations of every young person in the school. It is difficult for Chinese schools to provide sufficient educational incentives for higher education to Hou & Li. Educational Expectation between Urban and Rural Junior High School Students. BECE, Vol.10, No. 1, 2022 1332 rural and migrant students because of school segregation caused by household registra- tion institutions, which greatly inhibits their educational expectations. The results of this study have the following implications for solving the prob- lem of differences in educational expectations and attainment between Chinese urban and rural areas in the future. First, actively including educational guidance and career planning courses or programs in rural schools will effectively help to reduce the brain drain crisis in rural Chinese society. To bridge the gap in educational development be- tween rural and urban areas, the Chinese government and policy makers must not only consider the problem of uneven distribution of educational resources (such as school facilities, materials, curricula, teachers, and management) but also pay attention to cre- ating and improving the educational atmosphere of schools, so that schools can cultivate their students’ educational expectations. Schools must provide rural students with in- formation about educational opportunities and the value and future returns of higher education. Schools must also help their students obtain the required knowledge for their future career development, such as understanding the types of jobs they are suitable for and the educational qualification requirements for these jobs. This would prevent rural students from misjudging the value of education, leading them to think that “education is useless.” Any educational and vocational guidance also requires the participation of par- ents; therefore, rural parents should be helped to obtain more information and knowledge about educational and vocational opportunities to better help their children make rational educational decisions. Gradually alleviating and ending school segrega- tion based on household registration will enhance the integration of widely diverse school populations, which will be an important channel for promoting educational and social equity in China. The government influences the educational decisions of individ- uals and their families through its educational policies. The finding of this study regard- ing the relationship between household registration segregation in junior high schools and the differences in educational expectations between urban and rural areas in China provides an empirical basis for the re-evaluation of current educational policies and their consequences. The composition and structure of the household registration system in urban schools are helpful to improve their students’ educational expectations, while the household registration structure and composition of schools attended by rural stu- dents have a negative impact on their students’ educational expectations (Kahlenberg, 2012). Therefore, it is important to promote the fairness of educational opportunities by reducing the degree of school segregation caused by the hukou household registration policy and increasing the diversity and heterogeneity of students’ identities and back- grounds within schools to help vulnerable rural students obtain the same opportunities as urban students to enter urban schools with higher SES. In this respect, the reform of the existing household registration system in China must be deepened continually to weaken and gradually eliminate the restriction of household registration on the educa- tion of rural and migrant children. However, various forms of school quality differentia- tion must be eliminated to promote the balance of educational resources between re- gions, between urban and rural areas, and between schools. Hou & Li. Educational Expectation between Urban and Rural Junior High School Students. BECE, Vol.10, No. 1, 2022 1333 Notes: 1. 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[Chinese]. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTA L-JYJI201406004.htm The Chinese version of this article has been published in Global Education View, 2020, 49(3):90- 105. The English version has been authorized for being publication in BECE by the author(s) and the Chinese journal. 侯玉娜, 李馥丽. (2020).城乡初中生教育期望的差异研究:个人、家庭与社会结构的影响. 全 球教育展望, 49(3):90-105 https://doi.org/10.1086/221171 https://psycnet.apa.org/doi/10.2307/2088767 https://doi.org/10.2307/1239228 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0276-5624(03)20001-9 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0276-5624(03)20001-9 https://doi.org/10.2307/2112184 https://doi.org/10.2307/2088572 https://doi.org/10.1080/02529203.2013.820555 https://doi.org/10.1080/02529203.2013.820555 https://doi.org/10.19633/j.cnki.11-2579/d.%202016.07.011 https://doi.org/10.19633/j.cnki.11-2579/d.%202016.07.011 Hou & Li. Educational Expectation between Urban and Rural Junior High School Students. BECE, Vol.10, No. 1, 2022 1335 Received: 29 November 2021 Revised: 08 December 2021 Accepted: 06 January 2022 Article-YunaHou-BECE_title_Jan2022 Article-YunaHou--BECE_MaintextJan2022