BIBECHANA Vol. 20, No. 1, April 2023, 36-45 ISSN 2091-0762 (Print), 2382-5340 (Online) Journal homepage: http://nepjol.info/index.php/BIBECHANA Publisher:Dept. of Phys., Mahendra Morang A. M. Campus (Tribhuvan University)Biratnagar The fatalities and injuries due to avalanche effect in the Himalayan Region, Nepal Pitri Bhakta Adhikari∗, Sapana Dawadi, Shanta Nepal Department of physics, Tri-Chandra Multiple Campus Kathmandu, Nepal ∗Corresponding author. Email: pbadhikari09@gmail.com Abstract Snow avalanches present the major natural hazard in Himalayan region of Nepal. The loss of human life is the main effect of avalanche. The records and casualties compared with European countries which help to analyze the hazard in the mountain region and can be recommend to the public people of this area about the avalanche condition, prevention from it and dissemination of information. On analyzing the statistics of avalanche fatality in the high mountain of Asia from 1895 to 2022, the fatality number was 59 at Annapurna and Dhaulagiri mountain peaks. Different highest peak of mountains attract tourist and the massive amount of snow create an avalanche, which is one of the most devastating hazards in Himalayan. This fatality events, and fatality rates of Nepal and European countries from 1971 to 2022 analyzes the collected data from the Des-Inventor data-set, Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) portal of the government of Nepal. The European avalanche warning system is used in the government of Europe using the geographic information system (ArcGIS) tools. This study recommends the establishment of an avalanche warning system with proper tools in the western Himalayan to save the life of humans and property. Keywords Nepal, Disaster, Snow avalanche, Arc GIS tool, High Mountain of Asia. Article information Manuscript received: October 09, 2022; Accepted: March 31, 2023 DOI https://doi.org/10.3126/bibechana.v20i1.42206 This work is licensed under the Creative Commons CC BY-NC License. https://creativecommons. org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ 1 Introduction Nepal is one of the Asian countries having latitude in the northern hemisphere from 26° 22’ N to 30° 27’ N and elongated along east-west with a lon- gitude 80° 4’ E to 88° 12’ E. There are three re- gions: Himalayan, hilly, and terai. Nepal contains eight of the ten top highest mountain peaks, in- cluding Mount Everest, Annapurna, etc. The natu- rally beautiful country with full of wonderful peaks of the mountain range, scenery of glorious nature, and lakes, there are ample amazing snowfalls that attract many tourists to visit. Along with the glo- rious scenario, Nepal is also susceptible to different natural hazards such as landslides, floods, thunder- storms, lightning, avalanche, earthquakes, and so on. Nepal is facing several types of disaster which has damage human life and community. Koenig and Schultz’s (2016) state that, a large number of the mass casualties with wounded and dead peo- 36 http://nepjol.info/index.php/BIBECHANA pbadhikari09@gmail.com https://doi.org/10.3126/bibechana.v20i1.42206 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ Pitri Bhakta Adhikari et al./ BIBECHANA 20 (2023) 36-45 37 ple within a short period [1]. They also reported that it is very difficult to give medical service be- cause it is associated with the sudden rush of mass casualties and associated with mass panic and usu- ally large-scale movement of the population. Dis- aster disrupts the normal life of people, organiza- tions, community [2]. It brings great loss in the people health which immediately poses stressful cir- cumstance in people to handle situation for which it is not usually fully prepared. The growth of world population has increased the concentration in hazardous surroundings which focus on severity of disasters. National Snow and Ice Data Cen- ter, (2021) reported that avalanche is a natural disaster which is unpredictable and causes many injuries, loss of life, and social and economic de- struction [3]. Avalanche is a mass of snow, ice, and rock that collapses sliding down a mountain which harms the traveler, mountain dwellers, their work, transport, vegetation, and timber. It plays a vi- tal role in forming sculptures and weathering the world’s most wondrous peaks. Avalanches, earth- quakes, tornadoes, tidal waves, tsunamis, hurri- canes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, are natural disaster [4]. Nepal, due to its unique geograph- ical character, faces natural disasters every year which cause massive harm to lives and property [5]. Schweizer et al., (2003) reported that the result of a complex interaction between snowpack, ter- rain, and meteorological weather condition creat- ing the avalanche [6]. It can be classified into two models using the complex interaction between ter- rain, snowpack, and meteorological condition and from the physical and mechanical mechanisms of avalanche formation. Most avalanches that cause injury to people are caused by the victims them- selves. They also added that there are many ways to determine the snow avalanche. The avalanches occur on the slopes of 35 to 40 degrees because the force of gravity is generally insufficient to cause an avalanche beyond this value. It is influenced by the weather and can be prevented by vegetation on the slope. After heavy snowfall and the additional snow adds the stress and forms the Avalanche and forms its different types [7]. Singh and Ganju, (2002) ex- plained about calamity present in the western Hi- malayan of India, and how snow avalanches initiate and its effects on the lives of civil and military peo- ple in the winter season [8]. They found that poten- tial near avalanche sites got triggered due to snow metrological factors. Reuter and Schweizer (2009) reviewed avalanche triggering through the sound wave citeref9. They performed that some myths believed that avalanches can be triggered by noise. Dixon et al., (2013) studied avalanche destruction around Glacier National Park (GNP), Montana, on the United States at Canadian border [10]. They examined the damage to transportation, property with injured and dead people from avalanches from 1949 to 1997. McClung (2016) considered avalanche activity in the high Mountain in Asia and ana- lyzed and reviewed the statistics of avalanche fa- talities [11]. He concluded that the reduction of the fatal avalanche in the high mountains of Asia can be governed by human action and their decision. Chabot and Kaba (2016) studied avalanche hazards in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Tajikistan and made a strong plan to reduce fatalities from avalanche hazards including in remote areas too [12]. Fujita et al., (2017) considered snow amplified by an earth- quake which was occurred in 2015 causing induced calamity of torrential slides in Langtang region in Nepal [13]. They studied the co-seismic avalanches and rock falls along with their cause and destruction which occurred in the 2015 Gorkha earthquake de- stroying the Langtang village. Amanambu (2018) reported about avalanche activity in the western Tianshan Mountains of China and studied on the features of its triggering factors. They found that snow avalanches pose a major danger to road safety in mountainous places [14]. Thakuri & Koirala (2019) studied mountaineering in Nepal with its effects and challenges including avalanches caused [15]. They considered the climate change occur- ring through the different types of natural haz- ards emerging in the mountain region. They got that snow avalanches had caused many deaths in the Himalayan region which harmed the ascents in mountaineering. Schweizer et al., (2020) con- sidered avalanche occurrence and avalanche danger level. They got that in the snow covered mountain range of many countries, warning alerts are immi- nent in avalanche danger employing a five-level dan- ger scale [16]. They found that their data were in- herently incomplete got results referring to a lower limit, and consider using other similarly compre- hensive data sets. Thakuri et al., (2020) studied an avalanche in the high mountain of Nepal [17]. They underlined avalanche as well as glacial hazards and reflect the condition of a mountain in Nepal. In this article, the nature is to understand the vari- ous avalanche data and casualty of Nepal present in snow covering area of Nepal and in different highest mountains of Asia. It helps us to compare various avalanche fatality of US, Colorado and European country with Nepal which helps us to reduce the damage and human loss from avalanche. 2 Methodology and instrumentation The data is collected from United National Disas- ter Risk Reduction (UNDRR) from 1971 to 2021 that includes all the disasters available in the world and the Nepal disaster risk reduction portal; Gov- ernment of Nepal (http:// drrportal.gov.np) from 2012 to 2022.The data is also collected from min- Pitri Bhakta Adhikari et al./ BIBECHANA 20 (2023) 36-45 38 istry of home affairs (MoHA) compared with united national disaster risk reduction. The data include death, missing, and injured people along with eco- nomic loss of all affected areas out of 77 districts of Nepal from 1971 to 2022. The collected data were analyzed using graphical design was done by aero- nautical reconnaissance coverage geographic infor- mation system (ArcGIS) software tools. Statistical package for social science (SPSS) is one of the sta- tistical analyzed packages used to calculate sampled data. Geographic information system (GIS) is the software used to visualize, analyze and explore ge- ographically referenced information. This software is used to map the different data and used to map the avalanche data district-wise of all the disasters compared with the avalanche. Study Area: Nepal is an Asian country that lies between India and China having 147,516 km2 in the surface area. It has been characterized into three major regions namely terai, hill, and Himalayan. The altitude varies from 59 m above sea level to 8848.86 m; the height of Mount Everest, within the range of 160 Km. The whole re- gion of the Nepal as well as other Himalayan region are study area. 3 Results and Discussion 3.1 Analysis of disaster of Nepal and avalanche fatality rate of highest mountain peak of Asia There are several natural hazards such as avalanche, earthquake, landslide, flood, etc. in the study area. Due to this disaster, there are so many people lost their life, injured and missing. The data observed and recorded from 1971 to 2022, is shown in the ta- ble 1 in which the number of death people, injured and missing people with the estimated loss due to different disaster in Nepal. Figure 1: Avalanche causality of Nepal from 1971-2022. Figure 2: Avalanche fatality in 8000ers above high mountain peak, Source:www.earthobservatory. nasa.gov. www.earthobservatory.nasa.gov www.earthobservatory.nasa.gov Pitri Bhakta Adhikari et al./ BIBECHANA 20 (2023) 36-45 39 Table 1: The data of deaths, injured and missing people caused by several hazards in the Nepal during 1971-01-01 to 2022-06-30. S.N. Name of incidents Number of death people Number of missing people Number of injured people 1 Animal incidents 138 0 638 2 Snake bite 85 0 60 3 Flash fllod 43 32 0 4 Accident 1675 286 646 5 Panic 89 0 121 6 Explosion 36 0 99 7 Strong wind 184 0 497 8 Forest fire 74 7 48 9 Snow storm 98 31 45 10 Heat wave 45 0 20 11 Plague 11 0 0 12 Hail storm 65 0 104 13 Structure collapse 417 8 668 14 Breaking tuin 0 2 0 15 Bridge collapse 2 1 12 16 Air crash 56 0 38 17 Avalanche 281 65 138 18 Cold wave 870 0 83 19 Boat capsize 334 586 181 20 High altitude 80 0 22 21 Heavy rainfall 186 4 285 22 Wind storm 84 1 1449 23 Hailstone 0 0 0 24 Epidemic 7684 0 32709 25 Storm 90 8 303 26 Thunderbolt 1718 0 4485 27 Fire 1304 0 2964 28 Landslide 3520 660 2068 29 Flood 2089 702 622 30 Earthquake 8969 195 22311 31 Other 201 20 268 Total 30428 2608 70884 Pitri Bhakta Adhikari et al./ BIBECHANA 20 (2023) 36-45 40 Table 2: Fatality number, fatality rate and deaths to total number due to avalanche on the 8000 m peaks during the period of 1922 to august 2022, respectively. District Average pop- ulation (mil- lions) Fatalities Number of missing people Number of injured people Fatalities density (per km2) Panchthar 0.191 2 12 0 0 0.00161 Solukhumbu 0.105 76 1 15 25 0.00051 Taplejung 0.127 13 7 3 0 0.00357 Dhading 0.33 2 12 0 0 0.0010 Makwanpur 0.42 1 13 0 0 0.0004 Nuwakot 0.27 1 13 4 0 0.00008 Rasuwa 0.04 13 7 1 0 0.00841 Gorkha 0.27 20 4 7 18 0.0055 Kaski 0.49 18 5 12 6 0.0089 Shankhuwasabha 1.58 2 12 1 0 0.00057 Manang 0.006 59 2 1 7 0.02600 Mustang 0.01 16 6 0 26 0.00447 Myagdi 0.11 6 10 3 4 0.00261 Rukum East 0.05 0 14 0 1 0 Dolpa 0.03 32 3 2 3 0.00405 Humla 0.05 7 9 6 4 0.00159 Jumla 0.10 9 8 9 6 0.00316 Rukum West 0.15 1 13 0 0 0.00034 Bajhang 0.19 0 14 7 0 0 Darchula 0.13 3 11 0 35 0.00129 Table 3: The data of deaths, injured and missing people caused by several hazards in the Nepal during 1971-01-01 to 2022-06-30 Source(www.8000ers.com;www.earthobservatory.nasa.gov/ 8000meterpeaks;www.Wikipedia/wiki/list_of_deaths_on_eightthousanders.com). S.N. Peak(altitude) Height(m) Fatality number Avalanche Fatality rate (%) Total num- ber of Death 1 Everest(Nepal-Tibet) 8848 10 26.77 83 2 K2(Pakistan-China) 8611 95 16.84 16 3 Kanchenjunga(Nepal- India) 8586 54 9.25 5 4 Lhotse(Nepal) 8516 32 40.62 13 5 Makalu( Nepal-Tibet) 8463 40 7.5 3 6 Cho Oyu(Nepal-Tibet) 8201 52 17.30 9 7 Dhaulagiri(Nepal) 8167 82 51.21 42 8 Manaslu (Nepal) 8163 89 44.94 40 9 Nanga Parbat(Pakistan) 8125 82 40.24 33 10 Annapurna(Nepal) 8091 73 54.79 40 11 Gasherbrum I (Pakistan- China) 8068 34 26.47 9 12 Broad peak(Pakistan) 8047 37 13.51 13 Gasherbrum II(Pakistan- China) 8035 24 16.67 4 14 Shisha Pangma (Tibet) 8013 31 35.48 11 www.8000ers.com; www.earthobservatory.nasa.gov/8000 meterpeaks; www.Wikipedia/wiki/list_of_deaths_on_eightthousanders.com www.8000ers.com; www.earthobservatory.nasa.gov/8000 meterpeaks; www.Wikipedia/wiki/list_of_deaths_on_eightthousanders.com Pitri Bhakta Adhikari et al./ BIBECHANA 20 (2023) 36-45 41 Table 4: Avalanche occurred in Nepal Himalaya and human casualties due to avalanche for the year 1990 to 2022. S. N. Year Location No. of death people 1 1990 Mount Everest 6 2 1991 Mount Everest 8 3 1992 Khumbu 2 4 1994 Mount Everest 2 5 1995 Khumbu region, near Mt.Kanchanjunga base camp 48 6 1996 Mount Everest 9 7 1997 Mount Everest 19 8 1998 Mount Everest 6 9 1999 Mount Everest; Chunchet 6 10 2005 French expedition base camp 21 11 2006 Khumbu icefall at Mount Everest 3 12 2007 Mount Everest 6 13 2009 Khumbu icefall 2 14 2010 Mount Baruntse 2 15 2012 Manaslu peak 9 16 2013 Mount Everest 8 17 2014 Annapurna and Dhaulagiri 59 18 2015 Mount Everest 23 19 2017 Dolpa 1 20 2018 Dhaulagiri 9 21 2019 Dhading 8 Table 5: Total numbers of annual fatalities with 5 year average of US, Colorado and European countries. year Fatalities in United States Colorado European 1950-1960 38 13 854 1960- 1970 53 21 627 1970 – 1980 120 27 1158 1980 -1990 143 51 1177 1990 - 2000 220 62 1015 2000 -2010 279 52 990 2010 -2020 256 61 938 2020 – 60 18 182 Total 1169 305 6941 Pitri Bhakta Adhikari et al./ BIBECHANA 20 (2023) 36-45 42 Figure 3: US avalanche fatalities data in combination chart. Figure 4: Colorado avalanche fatalities data in combination chart. Nepal is affected by different disaster as shown in table 1. The earthquake, epidemic, land- slide, flood, thunderbolt, accident, fire, cold wave, avalanche, boat capsize, are the main disaster dur- ing the time of fifty-two years. Nepal is mostly harmed by earthquake which was totally damaged in 2015 Gorkha epicenter earthquake. In this earth- quake 8969 lost their life and so many were injured with many loss of property. Similarly, 7684 people lost their life due to epidemic, 3520 due to landslide, 2089 due to flood, 1718 due to thunder-bold light- ning, 281 due to avalanche during the mentioned period. Nepal had been facing economic problems from the natural disaster which created lots of losses the property. Not only the loss of human life, an- imals, but also many physical properties. Among 77 district of Nepal, only 20 districts area affected from avalanche. The total number of fatalities was divided by the total number of population is the fatality density as per millions to obtain fatality rate per million for each district of Nepal as shown in table 2. The total population of Nepal was ob- Pitri Bhakta Adhikari et al./ BIBECHANA 20 (2023) 36-45 43 Figure 5: Europe avalanche fatalities data in bar graph. tained from the Nepal census 2021 and the data of fatalities, missing, and injured people in different district occurred from avalanche during the period of 52 years. In the table 2, we mentioned districts, aver- age populations of these districts, fatalities num- bers with ranks and fatality density per area (km2). There are only 20 district’s data among 77 dis- tricts because no loss of lives and properties in this area caused due to avalanche. The fatality den- sity on this table is calculated by dividing fatal- ity number by area (per square kilometer) where the highest one is 0.00051 of district Solukhumbu and lowest are Bajhang, Rukum east and Lamjung. The highest fatality occurred, 76 in Solukhumbu district followed by Manang with 58.4. fatalities and Dolpa as a third ranked has 32 deaths due to avalanche. Himalaya lies in Nepal are mostly triggered by avalanche. The highest peak Mount Everest having height 8848.86 meter have two base camps. Many tourists or mountaineers come there to climb the peak and they can be affected mostly. The figure 1 represents the injured and missing peo- ple from avalanche effect. In this pie diagram, the size of the circle represents the affected area which is highest in Solukhumbu, then Manang, Dolpa and so on. Hence, in the Himalayan part avalanche con- dition is more than in hilly and terai region. In the Himalayan area, it is covered by snow and moun- tain peaks so avalanche triggering area is more. In the world, northern hemisphere is covered by snow and ice. In table 3, there is the data of avalanche fatality with different incident event recorded by European avalanche warning services from 2020 to 2022. Fatality number of 14 mountain peaks due to avalanche up to august 2021 is shown in table 3. The data consist of documented cases and sum- mary data from the websites of (www.8000ers.com) for the information of 8000 m peaks since 1979. The proliferation of expedition containing the database cannot be comprehensively represented over the past 30 years and has grown rapidly since 1990. The data were stratified according to type of ac- cidents, climate change and so on. The table is the lists of avalanche fatality with its characteris- tics and risks occurred in this sets of peaks. These peaks are very challenging having highest risks to reach the summits. The high mountain of Asia hav- ing 8000 m peaks are the best recorded for fatal accidents. The table 3 suggests that the highest peaks of central Himalayas exhibit very high risk area of avalanche for climbers. The highest num- ber of fatality was happened in peak mount Ever- est and the lowest number in Shisha Pangma in comparison to world’s peaks but in the context of Nepal, the highest mountain in the world. Mount Everest which have height 8848.86 m have high- est number of fatality and successful ascents per death and the lowest one is in the peak Makalu having deaths of 40 people. K2 peak located in Pakistan to China and Nanga Parbat located in Pakistan are the second and third in rank for fatal- ity number 91 and 85 respectively. There are four peaks which have the same number of fatality case due to avalanche. Broad Peak located in Pakistan and Gasherbrum I located in Pakistan to China are Pitri Bhakta Adhikari et al./ BIBECHANA 20 (2023) 36-45 44 Figure 6: US, Colorado and European avalanche fatalities data in combination chart. two peaks which have the same number of fatality 34, similarly, peak Manaslu and Lhotse both from Nepal felt same number of fatalities 84. In Shisha Pangma, the deaths appear from a mix of routes having fairly simple snow climbs prone for the for- mation of avalanche. The most deadly disaster in the history in Mt. Everest was from avalanche. There are eight mountain peaks which touch the outline of Nepal and four peaks are near and at Pakistan area. Avalanche data occurred in Nepal Himalayan is been listed in table 4. Here is the description of avalanche statistical data based on different literature, article, MOHA, on different lo- cation occurred on different ice land area and snow area. The years 1995, 1997, 2005, 2014 and 2015 have the top deaths rate respectively 48, 19, 21, 59 and 23 caused due to avalanche. The most affected area for the avalanche is Mount Everest where every year certain people died from avalanche. The area is also most triggering place where tourist has been killed in an avalanche as well as snow storm. The description of these all fatality rate in the 8000ers mountain peaks is virtually shown in figure 2. The most affected region from avalanche is in Mount Everest. 3.2 Comparing the avalanche data of US, Colorado and Europe In the table 5, the total number of dead people from avalanche in Europe country is listed. The data is from 1951 to 2021 in which 5 year average fatalities of US, Colorado and European countries are also il- lustrated. The Europe continent contains 16 coun- try. The data is taken from European avalanche warning services. The bar diagram and line graph of US avalanche fatalities is shown in figure 3, Col- orado fatalities is shown in figure 4, and European avalanche fatalities is shown in figure 5 during the years of 1951 to 2021. The data is collected from Colorado avalanche information center and Euro- pean avalanche warning service from 1951 to 2021. Bar diagram represent here in year wise avalanche and the red line denote the five year fatalities in the respective figures. Here, in US annual fatality rate from 1951 to 2022 is 1169. In the table 5 total annual fatality rate of Colorado is 305. The five year average annual fatality rate of avalanche from 1951 to 2021 is 284.6. It is shown that most af- fected area from avalanche is European continent. There are sixteen countries in a European conti- nent. Mostly there is highest number of the Eu- ropean country is covered by snow which is most affected for avalanche. All the annual fatality rate of different years is represented in the given figure. Total number of fatalities with incident event from January 2020 to April 2022 occurred in European country** recorded by European avalanche warning services. The fatality rate is going on increasing from the data which indicates that the avalanche problem going on the danger level. Here the fatal- ity rate of three countries is shown i.e. US, Col- orado and European of fatality is shown in table 5. The table described about avalanche problem in different year with forecasted regional danger level. Here comparing the fatality rate of three countries which is shown in Figure 6, i.e. US, Colorado and European. 4 Conclusion The avalanche is less studied in Nepal, on com- paring to other disasters even its fatality rate is Pitri Bhakta Adhikari et al./ BIBECHANA 20 (2023) 36-45 45 high. Especially, people suffered from avalanche in the mountainous area and its dwellers area. The avalanche activity also depends on elevation of Mountain. There is an estimated loss of lives through disaster in different region of Nepal. The total deaths, missing and injured people due to avalanche is found to almost 100. The fatality rate due to avalanche activity in the Himalayan region varies from place to place. The solukhumbu is the most affected area due to avalanche, covered from snow due to high altitude. Mt. Everest, Dhaulagiri, Annapurna, Manaslu, have higher mortality rate than Kanchenjunga, Lotse, Cho-you, and Makalu. The death rate is high in Nepal than other due to avalanche. European countries are most harmed and hampered than United States and Colorado. Switzerland is mostly effected among the different countries of Europe. References [1] K. L. Koenig and C. H. Schultz. Koenig and Schultz’s Disaster Medicine. Cambridge Uni- versity Press, USA, 2016. [2] C. B. Lavinia Javier Cueto. Pandemic and ty- phoon: Positive impacts of a double disaster on mental health of female students in the philip- pines. 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Nepal Mountain Academy, 1(1):137– 152, 2019. [16] J. Schweizer, C. Mitterer, F. Techel, A. Stof- fel, and B. Reuter. On the relation between avalanche occurrence and avalanche danger level. The Cryosphere, pages 737–750, 2020. [17] S. Thakuri, R. Chauhan, and P. Baskota. Glacial hazards and avalanches in high mountains of nepal himalaya. Journal of Tourism and Himalayan Adventures, 2:2738– 9642, 2020. https://nsidc.org/ https://www.ifrc.org/ https://www.ifrc.org/ https://www.ifrc.org/what-disaster https://www.ifrc.org/what-disaster https://www.americanavalancheassociation.org/ https://www.americanavalancheassociation.org/ Introduction Methodology and instrumentation Results and Discussion Analysis of disaster of Nepal and avalanche fatality rate of highest mountain peak of Asia Comparing the avalanche data of US, Colorado and Europe Conclusion