BIBECHANA Vol. 21, No. 1, April 2024, 1–11 ISSN 2091-0762 (Print), 2382-5340 (Online) Journal homepage: http://nepjol.info/index.php/BIBECHANA Publisher:Dept. of Phys., Mahendra Morang A. M. Campus (Tribhuvan University)Biratnagar Seasonal variations of disasters in Nepal Pitri Bhakta Adhikari∗, Nabraj Khanal Department of Physics, Tri-Chandra M. Campus Saraswatisadan, Ghantaghar, Kathmandu, Nepal ∗Corresponding author. Email: pbadhikari09@gmail.com Abstract Among natural disasters, landslides, floods, thunderstorms, and fires are major destructive disasters. Fires, which frequently occur in the spring and winter seasons, are the main cause of death for people in every season. Landslides seem to be very destructive in the summer season, floods also occur in the summer season, and thunderbolts frequently occur in the spring and summer seasons (pre-monsoon period). Different disasters occur frequently in different seasons and have a significant effect on humans, and animals, and result in huge property loss. Due to the geographical structure of our scenario, the destruction seems to be high in Nepal. Hence, the disasters cannot be stopped, but their impact can be reduced. Awareness programs should be conducted to mitigate their effects. Keywords Different disasters; seasonal variations; effects of disaster; awareness program. Article information Manuscript received: April 29, 2023; Revised: July 7, 2023; Accepted: December 10, 2023 DOI https://doi.org/10.3126/bibechana.v21i1.54503 This work is licensed under the Creative Commons CC BY-NC License. https://creativecommons. org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ 1 Introduction Nepal is situated at 28.3949 degrees north and 84.1240 degrees east. It has an area of 147,181 square kilometers and an average width of approxi- mately 193 kilometers with a length of 885 kilome- ters. It is a landlocked country, comprising only 0.3 percent of Asia’s total area. Due to its geographical structure, Nepal experiences many disasters, which can be classified into two main types: natural and manmade [1]. Nepal has vast geographical variabil- ity, ranging from low-lying areas of 59 meters to the highest peak of Mount Everest at 8,848.86 meters, within an average range of 160 kilometers. The cli- mate and severe weather conditions vary due to the difference in altitude and temperature across the country’s geographical structure. For example, the temperature in the Terai region can reach up to 42 degrees Celsius, while at the top of Mount Ever- est, it can drop to as low as minus 55 degrees Cel- sius. This unique behavior of variability of temper- ature and geographical structure leads to the occur- rence of various disasters [2]. Most of Nepal’s cities are situated along riverbanks, and the country can be divided into three main regions: the Himalayas, hilly region, and Terai region. In the Terai region, 1 http://nepjol.info/index.php/BIBECHANA pbadhikari09@gmail.com https://doi.org/10.3126/bibechana.v21i1.54503 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ Pitri Bhakta Adhikari and Nabraj Khanal/ BIBECHANA 21 (2024) 1-11 2 major disasters include floods, fires, thunderbolts, droughts, hailstorms, animal incidents, and snake bites. In the hilly region, major disasters include landslides, fires, floods, thunderbolts, hailstorms, etc., and in the Himalayan region, the main dis- asters are avalanches, landslides, thunderbolts, and snowstorms [3]. Earthquakes are a common natu- ral disaster in Nepal, as the country is located be- tween two tectonic plates - the Indian section of the Indo-Australian Plate and the Eurasian Plate. Nepal is considered the 11th most seismically-prone country in the world. The most recent devastating earthquake occurred in 2015, which resulted in a significant loss of life and property [4, 5]. There are eight mountains whose heights are more than 8000 meters: Mount Everest, Kanchen- junga, Lhotse, Makalu, Cho Oyu, Dhaulagiri, Man- aslu, and Annapurna. Besides the three main rivers, Karnali, Koshi, and Gandaki, several other rivers cause floods in different regions of Nepal [6,7]. The primary causes of disasters are unplanned ur- banization, climate change, and variation in geogra- phy. In the Himalayan region, avalanches cause the most destruction, resulting in several losses such as loss of lives and property. In the Terai region, floods and fires cause the most destruction [7,8]. The main cause of snow melting is global warming, which results in glacial lakes swelling and consequently bursting. Many glacial lakes have burst, and as the snow melts, the area of the glacial lakes increases, resulting in the burst of lakes that cause the loss of human lives and property. Global warming has increased the area of Tchho-Rolpa glacial lake from around 0.23 square kilometers to 1.7 square kilo- meters [9]. The complex geological structure also plays an important role in landslides in Nepal. The weak rock and soil covering steep and hilly regions cause landslides. Several flash floods have occurred due to the complex geology. On June 15, 2021, the flash flood from Melamchi and Indrawati rivers caused huge destruction in Melamchi Bazaar, which made a huge impact on the Melamchi water supply project too [10]. Similarly, other disasters such as fires, thunder- bolts, epidemics, animal attacks, snake bites, hail- storms, droughts, etc., have also occurred in var- ious parts of the country due to its complex geo- logical and geographical structure. Nepal is known as a natural hazard hotspot, experiencing frequent occurrences of natural disasters. This paper aims to explore the most frequently occurring disasters in Nepal during each of the four seasons and pro- pose strategies to control these major incidents that cause significant destruction. Providing advance information about upcoming disasters like floods and landslides in endangered cities or villages can help minimize destruction. Additionally, conduct- ing awareness programs for the general population regarding disasters like fires, thunderbolts, and hail- storms can also contribute to reducing destruction. Through an awareness campaign and timely infor- mation about impending disasters in high-risk ar- eas, the loss of human lives, animals, and property can be mitigated. 2 Methodology The data source is the DRR portal/MoHA (http: //drrportal.gov.np/). Many papers have been published that describe the annual destruction caused by specific disasters. However, this paper explains which disasters cause more destruction in different seasons and how they can be controlled. The paper includes the major four disasters: fire, landslide, thunderbolt, and flood, which seem to cause more destruction. The data for these four dis- asters in different years was noted, and the number of incidents, total deaths, and the number of injured people were taken from the DRR portal/MoHA. However, the data may not include full informa- tion because of the lack of information about all incidents. The annual data for different disasters from 2011 to 2022 AD was taken, and the number of incidents, deaths, and injuries due to the different disasters in different seasons (winter- S1, spring- S2, summer- S3, and autumn- S4) was observed, noted, and analyzed. Bar diagrams for different disasters during this time period were plotted, both annually and seasonally, and analyzed using the Microsoft Excel 2016 tool. The compiled file was created us- ing Microsoft Word 2016. 3 Results and Discussion 3.1 Flood Nepal is vulnerable to disasters, including various natural and man-made hazards. In this study, we focus on interpreting the data related to the de- struction caused by natural disasters, such as hu- man deaths, the number of injured people, loss of wealth and property, and more. The disaster data is collected both annually and seasonally, covering the period from 2011 to 2022 AD. The collected data includes the number of incidents, total deaths, injured people, affected families, estimated losses, missing people, fully damaged private houses, and partially damaged private houses. Table 1 presents the data related to the impacts of floods, Table 2 fo- cuses on landslides, Table 3 presents data on thun- derbolt incidents, and Table 4 provides information on fire-related incidents. Each table is organized separately to present the specific data observed and the impacts caused by these disasters. http://drrportal.gov.np/ http://drrportal.gov.np/ Pitri Bhakta Adhikari and Nabraj Khanal/ BIBECHANA 21 (2024) 1-11 3 Table 1: Incident, deaths, injuries, and damages due to flood in Nepal annually Years No. of inci- dents Total deaths No. of injured No. of affected families Estimated loss (lakhs) No. of missing people Private houses fully damaged Private houses partially damaged 2011 259 126 19 400 5121.00 93 723 448 2012 45 9 3 139 213.76 7 139 309 2013 266 131 5 892 203.27 133 263 108 2014 65 129 36 36514 149176.14 133 8622 24447 2015 15 0 6 23 165.85 3 14 4 2016 230 101 17 7123 307.12 36 583 180 2017 338 166 35 15118 264.14 42 264 13886 2018 80 17 26 1078 345.31 3 22 538 2019 206 73 20 3075 10634.95 27 452 1907 2020 98 42 11 512 494.11 37 166 48 2021 154 63 14 279 1153.92 34 481 172 2022 55 19 17 142 145.88 15 58 13 Total 1811 876 209 65295 168225.48 563563 11787 42060 Figure 1: Graph of disaster due to flood in Nepal. From Table 1, it is evident that between 2011 and 2022 AD, there were 1811 flood-related inci- dents, resulting in 876 deaths and 209 injuries. Ad- ditionally, 65295 families were affected, 563 people were reported missing, 11787 private houses were fully damaged, and 42060 private houses were par- tially damaged, leading to a loss of approximately Rs. 168225.48 lakhs, as reported by MoHA. The complete data from the source is presented in Table 1. The above data has been represented in the form of a bar diagram. In Figure 1, the graph represents only four parameters: the number of incidents, the total number of deaths, the number of injured, and the number of missing individuals. The estimated loss and the number of private houses fully and par- tially damaged have been excluded from the figure as their presence may not be well-analyzed due to the high variability in the data numbers. The graph in Figure 1 depicts the number of incidents, total deaths, injured individuals, and Pitri Bhakta Adhikari and Nabraj Khanal/ BIBECHANA 21 (2024) 1-11 4 missing persons. It is evident that the number of incidents remains consistently high throughout the years, while the number of missing individu- als remains relatively low. Notably, the destruc- tion caused by the flood was comparatively less in 2015 compared to other years. In 2014, there was a high number of affected families, partially damaged private houses, and a significant increase in total deaths compared to other years. However, in 2015, the overall destruction caused by the flood appears to be reduced. This can be attributed to the oc- currence of an earthquake that year, which affected a large number of people. As a result, people were more aware of the potential destruction caused by natural disasters, leading to a decreased impact of the flood. It is worth mentioning that in 2014, a loss of approximately Rs. 149176.14 lakhs was incurred due to the flood. 3.2 Landslide According to the data from the DRR portal, the table below presents information on disasters. Be- tween 2011 and 2022, nearly 2785 landslide inci- dents occurred, resulting in 1483 deaths, 1218 in- juries, 10161 affected families, 347 missing persons, 3890 fully damaged private houses, 3655 partially damaged private houses, and a loss of approxi- mately Rs. 18407.78 lakhs. The estimated loss is quite high. Table 2 shows that the maximum loss due to landslides occurred in 2016, with approxi- mately Rs. 8104.42 lakhs lost. In Figure 2, the graph shows the number of inci- dents, total deaths, number of injuries, and number of missing people due to landslides. The parame- ters for estimated loss, partially and fully damaged private houses, and the number of affected families were not included due to high variability in data numbers, making it difficult to analyze them in the figure. Figure 2 demonstrates the variability in the number of incidents, total deaths, number of in- juries, and number of missing people. The number of incidents is high compared to the number of in- jured people, total deaths, and missing people. In 2020, the number of incidents is high with a high number of deaths. It seems that the number of in- cidents has been increasing since 2018 compared to previous years. 3.3 Thunderbolt In the DRR portal, the information regarding miss- ing persons and the destruction of private houses is not mentioned. Therefore, Table 3 only includes four parameters: the number of incidents, total number of deaths, number of injured people, and estimated loss. According to the available data, a total of 2666 incidents occurred, resulting in 1137 deaths. Additionally, 3073 people were injured, and 2784 families were affected. Table 2: Incidents, deaths, and injuries due to landslide in Nepal Years No. of inci- dents Total deaths No. of injured No. of affected families Estimated loss (lakhs) No. of missing people Private houses fully damaged Private houses partially damaged 2011 126 110 81 32 457.27 24 100 6 2012 102 60 33 65 205.98 8 65 74 2013 97 87 57 174 1691.27 22 135 60 2014 75 113 96 491 236.66 129 143 37 2015 62 138 84 407 6.42 13 121 96 2016 234 148 144 1488 8104.42 9 358 440 2017 163 70 56 334 615.42 15 140 40 2018 320 91 126 749 1301.19 2 188 109 2019 449 86 93 3054 4051.86 11 1132 1590 2020 493 303 226 771 509.65 64 383 68 2021 337 178 134 604 346.35 31 261 118 2022 327 99 88 1992 881.29 19 864 1017 Total 2785 1483 1218 10161 18407.78 347 3890 3655 Pitri Bhakta Adhikari and Nabraj Khanal/ BIBECHANA 21 (2024) 1-11 5 Figure 2: Graph of destruction due to landslide. Table 3: Incidents, deaths, and injuries due to thunderbolt in Nepal Years No. of incidents Total deaths No. of injured people Estimated loss (lakhs) 2011 120 76 138 35.30 2012 210 118 267 40.70 2013 213 147 286 28.12 2014 177 97 227 104.46 2015 148 103 187 10.00 2016 206 118 240 33.21 2017 188 85 251 91.25 2018 244 75 300 55.62 2019 383 94 451 122.08 2020 305 82 310 91.58 2021 208 55 193 177.78 2022 264 87 223 87.69 Total 2666 1137 3073 877.79 Pitri Bhakta Adhikari and Nabraj Khanal/ BIBECHANA 21 (2024) 1-11 6 Figure 3: Graph of disaster due to thunderbolt in Nepal. The table displays the average number of de- struction caused by thunderbolts each year, along with the estimated loss of approximately Rs 877.79 lakhs during this time period. It is noteworthy that thunderbolts did not result in any missing individ- uals or fully or partially damaged private houses. From Figure 3, it can be observed that the num- ber of affected families was highest in the years 2019 and 2020, coinciding with a high number of incidents. The graph indicates that as the num- ber of incidents increases, the number of injuries and deaths also tend to rise. Additionally, there is a consistent trend of significant destruction caused by thunderbolts on average. However, the esti- mated loss attributed to thunderbolts is compar- atively lower than that of landslides, floods, and fires. 3.4 Fire The data presented in this analysis is derived from the DRR PROTAL/MOHA and covers the period from 2011 to 2022 AD. During this time frame, a to- tal of 19,921 fire incidents were recorded, resulting in 850 fatalities and affecting 27,073 families. The highest estimated loss due to fire occurred in 2015, amounting to approximately Rs 40,573.93 lakhs. Although the number of missing individuals and government house destruction were also recorded, they are not included in the analysis due to their relatively low occurrence. In Figure 4, it can be observed that the number of incidents and the number of affected families were high in the interval from 2011 to 2017 AD. How- ever, in the year 2018, the destruction decreased, but the number of private houses fully damaged by this disaster has been continuously increasing from the interval of 2018 to 2021 AD. The destruction seems to be less in the year 2022 AD. The total human loss and incidents caused by different dis- asters were mentioned annually in the above tables individually, and they are also presented in bar di- agrams. Throughout the period from 2011 to 2022, the total loss due to fire is represented in Table 5 and shown in a bar diagram in Figure 5. In com- parison to other disasters, the maximum number of incidents occurred due to fire. Pitri Bhakta Adhikari and Nabraj Khanal/ BIBECHANA 21 (2024) 1-11 7 Table 4: Incidents, deaths, and injuries due to fire in Nepal Years No. of in- cidents Total deaths No. of in- jured No. of affected families Estimated loss (lakhs) Private houses fully damaged Private houses partially damaged 2011 2595 106 369 3022 25775.42 844 723 2012 2693 99 362 3424 22308.66 1038 834 2013 2115 56 313 2679 15524.39 880 526 2014 2852 78 345 3777 30652.52 1623 333 2015 2459 85 336 3600 40573.93 1853 287 2016 1486 63 216 2392 22942.09 1374 258 2017 1521 63 244 3460 19240.96 2276 440 2018 623 74 67 309 9200.97 664 166 2019 950 65 98 194 16795.08 1254 171 2020 1018 59 108 1554 18540.73 1958 149 2021 1118 77 133 2512 12075.28 3785 223 2022 491 25 67 150 3980.04 574 189 Total 19921 850 2658 27073 237610.03 18123 4299 Figure 4: Graph of human and property loss due to fire. Number of incidents, human loss due to flood, landslide, thunderbolt and fire In Table 5, the number of incidents, total deaths, and number of injured people are recorded. Other parameters were not included due to their higher variability, which would make it difficult to interpret in a bar diagram and analyze. From Ta- ble 5, it can be seen that the maximum number of incidents, 19,921, occurred due to fire, followed by landslide, thunderbolt, and flood. The highest number of fatalities was caused by landslides, fol- lowed by thunderbolt, flood, and fire. Additionally, a significant number of people lost their lives due to other disasters, totaling 10,196, which includes the 2015 earthquake. During the earthquake, approxi- mately 9,000 lives were lost, and there was extensive damage and destruction of property. From Figure 5, it is evident that the highest number of people were injured by thunderbolts dur- ing this time interval, followed by injuries caused by fire, landslides, and floods. Among the different disasters, floods affected the maximum number of families, surpassing the impact of other disasters. More than half of the total affected families were affected by floods. Regarding the damage to pri- vate houses, the earthquake caused the most signif- icant destruction during this period. In 2015 alone, Pitri Bhakta Adhikari and Nabraj Khanal/ BIBECHANA 21 (2024) 1-11 8 more than 700,000 private houses were fully dam- aged and over 200,000 private houses were partially damaged. The next disaster resulting in significant house destruction is flood. In terms of estimated losses, fire caused the highest financial impact, fol- lowed by flood, earthquake, landslide, and thunder- bolt. Table 5: Variation of disasters to human loss and number of incidents during the period 2011-2022 Disasters Number of incidents Number of deaths Number of injured people Flood 1811 876 209 Landslide 2785 1483 1218 Thunderbolt 2666 1137 3073 Fire 19921 850 2658 Other disasters 4823 10196 28158 Total 32006 14542 35316 Figure 5: Variation of disasters to incidents, human loss and injuries in twelve years. The human loss and incidents by different disasters in different seasons The different seasons, winter represented by S1, spring by S2, summer by S3, and autumn by S4, are presented here. Winter includes December, Jan- uary, and February; spring includes March, April, and May; summer includes June, July, and Au- gust; and autumn includes September, October, and November. The four main disasters in Nepal, which account for more than half of the total inci- dents, are very dangerous in different seasons and can claim lives and cause injuries. These are pre- sented in table 6, and their representations in bar diagrams of different seasons and disasters are given in figure 6, with the different disasters in different seasons shown in figure 7. From figure 6, it can be seen clearly that the most number of incidents were caused by fire in the winter and spring sea- sons. The maximum number of incidents occurred in spring (7223) and winter (6737), and the mini- mum in summer (2623) during the mentioned pe- riod. Hence, awareness programs should be con- ducted during the winter and spring seasons about fire, and people should be made familiar with its harmful effects. Similarly, during spring (1155) and summer (932), incidents occur due to thunderbolt, and awareness programs should be conducted dur- ing the pre-monsoon period. The landslide is most dangerous in summer among the four seasons, in which the maximum number of incidents and peo- ple were killed. In the summer season, the highest number of flood incidents were observed from the above figures, with 1408 incidents, 686 people losing their lives, and 176 people being injured. Among the 32006 incidents of disasters, around Pitri Bhakta Adhikari and Nabraj Khanal/ BIBECHANA 21 (2024) 1-11 9 87 percent were caused by the four main disasters: landslides, floods, fires, and thunderbolts. These four disasters caused about 80 percent of the to- tal deaths, which amounts to 4370 people, whereas the earthquake in 2015 caused around 9000 deaths. Although the main disasters caused the maximum number of incidents, the number of human losses is comparatively lower than the earthquake. Fire caused the highest number of incidents, while flood and landslide caused comparatively fewer incidents. The table 5 shows that the number of injuries in- curred in thunderbolts is about three times higher than the number of deaths, and similarly, the num- ber of injuries in fires is more than three times higher than the number of deaths. Table 6: Seasonal Variation of Disasters during the period 2011-2022. (A)Seasons in different Disaster Disasters Seasons Number of incidents Number of deaths Number of injured Flood Winter 2 123 1408 Spring 1 29 686 Summer 0 14 176 Autumn 0 0 0 Landslide Winter 39 15 21 Spring 107 66 57 Summer 2066 1006 844 Autumn 558 392 293 Thunderbolt Winter 205 65 268 Spring 1155 455 1472 Summer 932 447 916 Autumn 359 159 351 Fire Winter 6737 433 1027 Spring 7223 264 723 Summer 2623 61 418 Autumn 4000 133 602 Total 27803 4370 7208 (B)Disasters in Different Season Seasons Disasters Number of incidents Number of death Number of injured Winter (S1) Flood 2 1 0 Landslide 39 15 21 Thunderbolt 205 65 268 Fire 6737 433 1027 Spring (S2) Flood 123 29 14 Landslide 107 66 57 Thunderbolt 1155 455 1472 Fire 7223 264 723 Summer (S3) Flood 1408 686 176 Landslide 2066 1006 844 Thunderbolt 932 447 916 Fire 2623 61 418 Autumn (S4) Flood 266 158 26 Landslide 558 392 293 Thunderbolt 359 159 251 Fire 4000 133 602 Pitri Bhakta Adhikari and Nabraj Khanal/ BIBECHANA 21 (2024) 1-11 10 4 Conclusion The maximum number of fire incidents occurred more frequently compared to other disasters. Fire is the primary cause of deaths in every season. The highest number of fire incidents took place during spring and winter, while the minimum oc- curred during summer throughout the mentioned period. Similarly, thunderbolts occur frequently during spring and summer, also known as the pre- monsoon period. To effectively address all types of disasters, awareness programs should be conducted based on the seasons. For example, awareness cam- paigns about thunderbolts should be focused on the pre-monsoon period, while floods and landslides are more prevalent during the rainy (summer) season and have a greater impact. Landslides are partic- ularly destructive during the summer season and moderately destructive during autumn, whereas winter and spring experience less destruction. A similar pattern is observed for floods, with the max- imum destruction occurring in the summer season, moderate destruction in autumn, and significantly fewer incidents during winter. These disasters are primarily influenced by the geographical structure of the region, resulting in higher levels of destruc- tion in Nepal. Therefore, it is crucial to conduct awareness programs in the prone zone areas during Pitri Bhakta Adhikari and Nabraj Khanal/ BIBECHANA 21 (2024) 1-11 11 these specific periods. Acknowledgements First of all, we would like to express our sincere gratitude to Tri-Chandra Multiple Campus, Trib- huvan University for the research facility. We are also thankful to DRR Portal, for the facility to ob- serve data, which were analyzed to complete the research. References [1] Information and Broadcasting Department, Nepal Government. Nepal parichaya. 2022. DOI: www.doinepal.gov.np. [2] Pitri Bhakta Adhikari. Death and injury of the people due to lightning in the himalayan region, nepal. BIBECHANA, 18(2):116– 128, 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3126/ bibechana.v18i2.29168. [3] Dinanath Bhandari, Sanchita Neupane, Pe- ter Hayes, Bimal Regmi, and Phil Marker. 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[10] Sudan Bikash Maharjan, Jakob Friedrich Steiner, Arun Bhakta Shrestha, Amina Mahar- jan, Santosh Nepal, Mandira Singh Shrestha, Birendra Bajracharya, Ghulam Rasul, Maxim Shrestha, Miriam Jackson, and Nishikant Gupta. The melamchi flood disaster. ICI- MOD, 2021. DOI: https://www.icimod.org/ article/the-melamchi-flood-disaster/. www.doinepal.gov.np https://doi.org/10.3126/bibechana.v18i2.29168 https://doi.org/10.3126/bibechana.v18i2.29168 https://www.britannica.com/topic/Nepal-earthquake-of-2015 https://www.britannica.com/topic/Nepal-earthquake-of-2015 https://doi.org/10.3126/bibechana.v20i1.42206 https://doi.org/10.3126/bibechana.v20i1.42206 https://doi.org/10.3126/hn.v12i0.9034 https://doi.org/10.3126/hn.v12i0.9034 https://www.icimod.org/article/the-melamchi-flood-disaster/ https://www.icimod.org/article/the-melamchi-flood-disaster/ Introduction Methodology Results and Discussion Flood Landslide Thunderbolt Fire Conclusion