AIEAA Webinar DISEI Dipartimento di scienze per l’economia e l’impresa DISEI Dipartimento di scienze per l’economia e l’impresa Pierluigi Montalbano Sapienza University of Rome Donato Romano University of Florence AIEAA Webinar: 27th April 2023 Vulnerability and Resilience to Food and Nutrition Insecurity: A review of the literature towards a unified framework DISEI Dipartimento di scienze per l’economia e l’impresa Background Why vulnerability and resilience? • Increased shocks and risks, uncertainty • Practical reasons: hum & dev’t agencies – Hyogo framework for action (2007) – World Humanitarian Summit (2016): NWoW, HDP nexus • Conceptual reasons: – similar, largely overlapping concepts – hot topics, but § no comprehensive comparative analysis of V and R § many definitions for both V and R: different models and measures 2 Vulnerability and Resilience to Food Insecurity AIEAA Webinar, 27th April 2023 DISEI Dipartimento di scienze per l’economia e l’impresa Background 3 Vulnerability is determined by the options available to households and individuals to make a living, the risks they face and their ability to handle this risk (Dercon, 2001) Resilience is the capacity of a household that ensures adverse stressors and shocks do not have long-lasting adverse development consequences (RMTWG, 2014: 4) • risks ↔ stressors and shocks • options available and ability to handle risks ↔ capacity • make a living ↔ prevent long-lasting adverse development consequences Vulnerability and Resilience to Food Insecurity AIEAA Webinar, 27th April 2023 Why vulnerability and resilience? DISEI Dipartimento di scienze per l’economia e l’impresa Background Why vulnerability and resilience? 4 Vulnerability and Resilience to Food Insecurity AIEAA Webinar, 27th April 2023 DISEI Dipartimento di scienze per l’economia e l’impresa Background Why vulnerability and resilience? • Key question: is resilience just the flip side of vulnerability? • Specific questions on V and R: – how are they conceptualized? – how are they measured? – how good are they for practical use? § targeting § impact evaluation * Specific reference to food insecurity 5 Vulnerability and Resilience to Food Insecurity AIEAA Webinar, 27th April 2023 DISEI Dipartimento di scienze per l’economia e l’impresa Outline • Food security measurement axioms • Vulnerability – definitions – measurement approaches • Resilience – definitions – measurement approaches • Vulnerability vs. Resilience – towards a unifying framework • Research and policy implications 6 Vulnerability and Resilience to Food Insecurity AIEAA Webinar, 27th April 2023 DISEI Dipartimento di scienze per l’economia e l’impresa Food security FS measurement axioms (Upton et al., 2016) • scale: aggregation and decomposability • time: dynamics, forward-looking • access: conditioning factors • outcome: wellbeing dimension 7 Vulnerability and Resilience to Food Insecurity World Food Summit (FAO, 1996) “a situation that exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life” AIEAA Webinar, 27th April 2023 DISEI Dipartimento di scienze per l’economia e l’impresa Vulnerability • Different approaches – Vulnerability to expected poverty (VEP) (Christiaensen & Subbarao, 2001; Chauduri et al., 2002) – Vulnerability as low expected utility (VEU) (Ligon & Schechter, 2003, 2004) – Vulnerability as the threat of future poverty (VTP) (Calvo & Dercon, 2007, 2013) * Generally, no reference to food security 8 Vulnerability and Resilience to Food Insecurity AIEAA Webinar, 27th April 2023 DISEI Dipartimento di scienze per l’economia e l’impresa Vulnerability #1: VEP 9 Vulnerability and Resilience to Food Insecurity Axioms Check Scale Y Time N Access Y Outcome N Probability that the HH’s level of consumption at time t+1 will be below the consumption poverty line, z Assumption: the cross-sectional variation of the sampled HHs’ consumption as the time series variation of HH- specific consumption AIEAA Webinar, 27th April 2023 𝑉𝐸𝑃!,# = 𝑃𝑟(𝑙𝑜𝑔 𝑐!,# < 𝑙𝑜𝑔 𝑧 |𝑋!,#) = Φ 𝑙𝑜𝑔 𝑧 − 𝑙𝑜𝑔 2𝑐!,# 3𝜎!,#$ DISEI Dipartimento di scienze per l’economia e l’impresa Vulnerability #2: VEU 10 Vulnerability and Resilience to Food Insecurity Difference btw the U derived from some level of certainty- equivalent consumption at and above which the HH would not be considered vulnerable and the expected U of cons. Axioms Check Scale Y Time Y Access Y Outcome N Main limitations: • No focus axiom • Mean consumption as independent from risk, underestimating the overall effect of risk AIEAA Webinar, 27th April 2023 𝑉𝐸𝑈! = 𝑈! 𝑧"# − 𝑈! 𝐸𝑐!,% + 𝑝𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑡𝑦 𝑈! 𝐸𝑐!,% − 𝐸𝑈! 𝑐!,% 𝜇& + 𝑚𝑒𝑠𝑜 𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑘 𝐸𝑈! 𝑐!,% 𝜇& − 𝐸𝑈! 𝑐!,% 𝜇& , 𝜇% + 𝑎𝑔𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑔𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑘 𝐸𝑈! 𝑐!,% 𝜇& , 𝜇% − 𝐸𝑈! 𝑐!,% 𝜇& , 𝜇%, 𝑥!,% + 𝑖𝑑𝑖𝑜𝑠𝑦𝑛𝑐𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑐 𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑘 𝐸𝑈! 𝑐!,% 𝜇& , 𝜇%, 𝑥!,% − 𝐸𝑈! 𝑐!,% 𝑢𝑛𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑙𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑑 𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑘/ 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 DISEI Dipartimento di scienze per l’economia e l’impresa Vulnerability #3: VTP 11 Vulnerability and Resilience to Food Insecurity Axioms Check Scale N Time Y Access Y Outcome Y The burden caused by the threat of poverty, i.e. exposure to states of the world where hardship may strike causes distress ex-ante, even if ex-post the dice are benign and poverty (consumption below a critical norm) does not materialize 𝑉! = 1−E & "#$ % 𝑥" $ % ! Main limitations: • Outcomes assumed to be non- transferable across states of nature • Highly data demanding (knowledge of all possible states of nature) AIEAA Webinar, 27th April 2023 DISEI Dipartimento di scienze per l’economia e l’impresa Resilience • Different approaches – Resilience as capacity (RCI) (Alinovi et al., 2008; FAO, 2016) – Resilience as as return to equilibrium (Perrings, 2006; Knippenberg et al., 2019) – Resilience as a normative condition (𝜌) (Barrett & Constas, 2014; Cissé & Barrett, 2018) – Resilience as transformability (Walker et al., 2004; Reyers et al., 2018) * Referred to poverty as well as food security 12 Vulnerability and Resilience to Food Insecurity AIEAA Webinar, 27th April 2023 DISEI Dipartimento di scienze per l’economia e l’impresa Resilience #1: Capacity 13 Vulnerability and Resilience to Food Insecurity Axioms Check Scale N Time N Access Y Outcome Y An ex-ante capacity that limits the adverse well-being effects of risk exposure (i.e., stressors) and/or the near- or longer- term consequences of shocks 𝑅𝐶𝐼 = 𝛽$, 𝛽&, … , 𝛽% . 𝐴𝐵𝑆, 𝐴𝑆𝑇, 𝑆𝑆𝑁, 𝐴𝐶 + 𝜀$ 𝑊$,𝑊&, … ,𝑊% = 𝛼$, 𝛼&, … , 𝛼% . 𝑅𝐶𝐼 . 𝜀&, 𝜀', … , 𝜀% Main limitations: • Explanatory variable, rather than an outcome • Not forward-looking • Not anchored to a norm AIEAA Webinar, 27th April 2023 DISEI Dipartimento di scienze per l’economia e l’impresa Resilience #2: Return to equilibrium 14 Vulnerability and Resilience to Food Insecurity Axioms Check Scale N Time Y Access Y Outcome N AIEAA Webinar, 27th April 2023 𝑍",) * = 𝛾+ + 𝛾$*𝑍",),$ * + 𝛾)* 𝑍",),$ * 𝛿) + 𝛿) + 𝜇" * + 𝛿𝜀",) HH’s capacity to recover – sometimes how fast is the speed of recovery – from a shock, i.e. ex-post recovery of a well- being variable rather than explicitly modeling the various capacities that result in rapid recovery Main limitations: • Not decomposable/aggregable across sub-populations • Focus only on the capacity of the household/individual to return to the pre-shock status DISEI Dipartimento di scienze per l’economia e l’impresa Resilience #3: Normative condition 15 Vulnerability and Resilience to Food Insecurity Axioms Check Scale Y Time Y Access Y Outcome Y A condition that reflects one’s capacity to avoid adverse well-being states, rather than a capacity itself 𝑊',% =? & 𝛼&𝑊',%() & + 𝛄𝐗𝐢,𝐭 + 𝛉𝐒𝐢,𝐭 + 𝜀',% 𝜀',%, =? & 𝛽&𝑊',%() & + 𝛅𝐗𝐢,𝐭 + 𝛝𝐒𝐢,𝐭 + 𝑢',% 𝜌',- ≡ Pr 𝑊',- ≥ 𝑊 𝑊',-(), 𝐗𝐢,𝐧, 𝐒𝐢,𝐧 = 𝐹 𝑊, O𝑊',- 𝑊',-(), 𝐗𝐢,𝐧, 𝐒𝐢,𝐧 , ̂𝜀',-, 𝑊',-(), 𝐗𝐢,𝐧, 𝐒𝐢,𝐧 (HH-specific conditional variance) (HH-specific conditional mean) (HH-specific conditional probability of satisfying a normative wellbeing standard) AIEAA Webinar, 27th April 2023 DISEI Dipartimento di scienze per l’economia e l’impresa Vulnerability vs. Resilience 16 Vulnerability is determined by the options available to households and individuals to make a living, the risks they face and their ability to handle this risk (Dercon, 2001) Resilience is the capacity of a household that ensures adverse stressors and shocks do not have long-lasting adverse development consequences (RMTWG, 2014: 4) * R: long-term consequences→ not being trapped in a low-level equilibrium, ability to bounce back Vulnerability and Resilience to Food Insecurity AIEAA Webinar, 27th April 2023 DISEI Dipartimento di scienze per l’economia e l’impresa Vulnerability vs. Resilience Is resilience just the the flip side of vulnerability? 17 Vulnerability and Resilience to Food Insecurity AIEAA Webinar, 27th April 2023 V=0 ⟹ R=1 R=0 ⟹ V=1 0