Revista FOP n 13


1682

An overview of caries risk assessment in 0-18 year-olds over
the last ten years (1997-2007)

Elaine Pereira da Silva Tagliaferro1;Vanessa Pardi1,2; Gláucia Maria Bovi Ambrosano3; Marcelo de Castro Meneghim4;
Antonio Carlos Pereira5
1DDS, MS, PhD, Postdoctoral Student
2DDS, MS, PhD, Professor, Graduate Program in Community Health, Dental School, University of Sagrado Coração, Brazil
3Agr.Eng., MS, PhD Professor, Department of Community Dentistry, Dental School of Piracicaba, State University of Campinas, Brazil
4 DDS, MS, PhD, Professor, Department of Community Dentistry
5 DDS, MPH, DrPH, Professor, Department of Community Dentistry

Department of Community Dentistry, Piracicaba Dental School, University of Campinas, Brazil

Received for publication: September 05, 2008
Accepted: October 15, 2008

Correspondence to:
Prof. Dr. Antonio Carlos Pereira
Av. Limeira 901 - 13414-903, Piracicaba, SP, Brasil
Phone: +55-19-2106-5209.
Fax: +55-19-2106-5218
E-mail: apereira@fop.unicamp.br

A b s t r a c t

This study aimed to review the dental literature about caries risk assessment over the last 10 years in order to show which variables have

been considered risk predictors and risk factors of dental caries in infants, preschool-, schoolchildren and adolescents. A Medline search

of the published English language literature from 1997 to 2007 was made for papers of longitudinal studies that reported on caries risk

assessment. A total of 39 papers were included in this review. Most studies were conducted in schoolchildren (n=19), followed by

preschool children (n=9), adolescents (n=7) and infants (n=4). Variables such as caries experience, gingival status, microbiological

counts, oral hygiene, plaque mineral concentration, fluoride history, socioeconomic and educational level, demographic, anthropometrical,

oral, dietary and toothbrushing habits were studied. Past caries experience has been the predominant predictor for future caries in 0-18-

year-old subjects. Other variables, such as dietary habits, including sugar intake, and toothbrushing habits may also help identifying

high-risk individuals. In conclusion, the variables related to caries experience continue to be the main predictor of caries increment.

Key words: dental caries; risk; assessment; prediction

I n t r o d u c t i o n

One of the main goals of Dentistry has been to prevent
dental caries, which has been, according to Aoba and
Fejerskov1, the predominant cause of tooth loss in all
populations worldwide.
In general, two preventive strategies can be used to prevent
and/or control caries disease: the “high-risk strategy”,
which is directed towards individuals particularly
susceptible to developing dental caries2, and the
“population strategy”, which endeavors to protect all the
people, including high and low caries risk individuals.
Burt3 has referred to the “geographically targeted strategy”,
in which the preventive measures are targeted to a sub-
group or a specific area of the city/country, such as schools
in deprived areas of the city or an area of immigrant
population. However, all strategies have the same goal: to

prevent and/or to control the development of new carious
lesions or to arrest the progression of preexisting lesions.
In spite of increase in the adoption of preventive measures,
it seems that for a minority of children these procedures
have been insufficient for preventing and controlling the
disease, as the majority of carious lesions are concentrating
in this group. Therefore, oral health care providers have
been adopted the “high risk strategy” for these
individuals.
If individuals with a risk for developing dental caries are
correctly identified, planning specific measures for caries
control and prevention may become a biological and
socioeconomic measure, increasing the efficiency of
preventive programs, as emphasized by Giannoni et al.4.
Moreover, identifying caries risk factors/predictors allows
selecting the individuals or population groups that will
really benefit from preventive measures. This makes it
possible to use specific and appropriate preventive measures
in target people and may work as an alert for conducting
a more detailed dental examination. In addition to the
aforementioned advantages, knowing caries risk factors is
decisive in detecting those with initial carious lesions,
who may benefit from novel and emergent preventive

                                                                         Braz J Oral Sci. October/December 2008 - Vol. 7 - Number 27



1683

technologies5. Fontana and Zero6 discussing caries risk
assessment in private practice have recommended that
factors such as caries experience, dietary habits, fluoride
exposure, presence of cariogenic bacteria, salivary status,
general medical history and sociodemographic
characteristics should be evaluated when assessing the
patient’s caries risk.
Assessing caries risk consists of determining which
individuals are more or less likely to prevent or to control
dental caries in the future by means of knowing the variables
associated with the disease5. Caries risk assessment studies
can be performed using cross-sectional data, in which the
subjects’ data, usually about a disease prevalence or severity,
are collected once or longitudinal data, in which the
individuals are examined repeatedly over time. In addition
to clinical variables, several others such as, socioeconomics,
demographics, and behavioral characteristics can be used
to assess their effects on caries levels (cross-sectional studies)
or in caries incidence and/or increment (longitudinal
studies). Although longitudinal studies are expensive,
difficult to conduct and depend on the participants´
willingness, their results are stronger than those obtained
in cross-sectional studies7. Moreover, when assessing caries
risk, the use of multiple regression analysis is preferable8-9

since the etiology of dental caries is multifactorial.
The aim of this work was to review the dental literature
about caries risk assessment over the last 10 years (1997-
2007), in order to show which variables have been
considered caries risk factors/predictors in longitudinal
studies conducted in infants, preschool-, schoolchildren
and adolescents.

Concepts and Terminology
As one of the study’s aims is to review the dental literature
about risk factors and risk predictors in longitudinal studies of
dental caries, it is important to consider the following terms.
Risk factor has been defined by Beck8 as “an
environmental, behavioral or biologic factor confirmed by
temporal sequence, usually in longitudinal studies, which
if present directly increases the probability of a disease
occurring, and if absent or removed reduces the probability.
Risk factors are part of the causal chain, or expose the
host to the causal chain. Once disease occurs, removal of
a risk factor may not result in a cure”.
Risk predictor is also named by Beck8 as a risk marker,
and is defined as a characteristic associated with a high
risk for the disease. The risk predictor predicts well but it
is not thought to be part of the causal chain. As a good
example, past caries experience has been strongly
associated with a high risk for caries increment in the future.
However, this variable is not part of the causal chain and
is therefore considered a risk predictor. Moreover, it has
been reported that in case of preventive measures being
introduced in the studied caries risk group to reduce the
disease activity, past caries experience becomes a risk

predictor with reduced worth.
In this study, the expressions “risk factor” (RF) and “risk
predictor” (RP) will be used for classifying those variables
statistically associated with caries increment in multivariate
regression analyses, if they were either part (RF) or not
(RP) of the causal chain of dental caries.

Material and Methods

A search of the English Language literature published from
1997 to 2007 was made in the Medline database for articles
that reported on caries risk assessment using the following
descriptors: longitudinal caries risk. Furthermore, MeSH
Database PubMed Service was used with some of the cited
terms: “Longitudinal Studies”[MeSH] AND “Dental
Caries”[MeSH] AND “Risk”[MeSH]. The limits for the
search included: “Publication Date from 1997 to 2007”;
Language: English; Ages: “All Child: 0-18 years”. Studies
were selected if they met the following criteria: longitudinal
study conducted with children aged 0-18 years, providing
information on sample size, age at initial examination
(baseline), variables collected at baseline, study lasting,
statistical tests used and a measure of caries increment/
incidence as an outcome variable. In accordance with the
search criteria, 189 papers were retrieved. A total of 59
were selected by reading the title and among them 30
were selected by reading the abstract and/or the full text.
Twenty-nine papers were excluded because they did not
report the outcome variable as caries incidence/increment
(n=9), were review articles (n=2), validation study (n=1)
evaluation/comparative studies (n=11) or used cross-
sectional data (n=6). Moreover, hand searching was
performed from the citations of the identified reports (n=3)
and other key papers (n= 6). Therefore, a total of 39 papers
were included in this review.
A variable that is part or expose the host to the causal
chain of dental caries and remained statistically significant
in multivariate regression models was considered risk factor.
Risk predictor was considered the variable that is not part
of the causal chain of dental caries and remained
statistically significant in multivariate regression models.

Results and Discussion

Researches on caries risk assessment have been conducted
since the 1980’s, focused on developing an easy tool for
identifying high-caries-risk individuals10. Published studies
in general have studied clinical, microbiological, salivary,
socioeconomic and demographic data, medical history,
dietary habits, fluoride history, use of dental services and
dental health behaviors, separately and in combination to
identify high-caries-risk individuals.
According to the dental literature, the use of caries increment
during a period of time is the primary outcome measure11

and statistical analysis based on logistic regression with
multiple factors are preferable because of the complex and
multifactorial etiology of the caries process8.

Braz J Oral Sci. 7(27):1682-1690                              An overview of caries risk assessment in 0-18 year-olds over the last ten years (1997-2007)



R
F

:
la

c
k

o
f
d
a
il
y

to
o
th

b
ru

s
h
in

g
,
c
o
n
s
u
m

p
ti
o
n

o
f

c
a
n
d
ie

s

T
im

in
g

o
f
c
a
ri
e
s

o
n
s
e
t
o
n

p
ri
m

a
ry

a
n
d

p
e
rm

a
n
e
n
t

m
o
la

rs

S
A

7
V

B
:
C

a
ri
e
s

(i
n
it
ia

l:
re

s
tr

ic
te

d
to

th
e

e
n
a
m

e
l
+

m
a
n
if
e
s
t
c
a
ri
e
s
:
i

n
d
e
n
ti
n

n
e
e
d
in

g
re

s
to

ra
ti
v
e

d
e
n
ta

l
c
a
re

),
q
u
e
s
ti
o
n
n
a
ir
e

(c
o
n
s
u
m

p
ti
o
n

o
f
c
a
n
d
ie

s
,
u
s
e

o
f
fl
u
o

ri
d
e

ta
b
le

ts
,

to
o
th

b
ru

s
h
in

g
,

p
a
c
if
ie

r
s
u
c
k
in

g
,
u
s
e

o
f
a

n
u
rs

in
g

b
o
tt
le

a
t
n
ig

h
t,

p
ro

lo
n
g
e
d

b
re

a
s
tf
e
e
d
in

g
)

E
X

:
L
o
c
a
l
h
e
a
lt
h

c
e
n
te

r
d
e
n
ti
s
ts

(n
o
rm

a
l
ro

u
ti
n
e
s
)

2
1
8
3

O
ll
il
a

a
n
d

L
a
rm

a
s

1
3
,
2
0
0
7

(O
u
lu

),
F

in
la

n
d

R
P

:
in

c
ip

ie
n
t
c
a
ri
e
s

le
s
io

n
s
;
R

F
:
M

S
s
tr

ip
,
u
s
e

o
f

c
a
n
d
ie

s
N

o
n
e

o
f
th

e
s
tu

d
ie

d
v
a
ri
a
b
le

re
a
c
h
e
d

a
n

a
c
c
u
ra

c
y

o
f

8
0
%

In
c
re

m
e
n
t
o
f

c
a
v
it
a
te

d
c
a
ri
o
u
s

le
s
io

n
s

a
n
d

o
r

fi
ll
in

g
s

>
0

M
L
R

,

R
O

C

3
V

B
:
C

a
ri
e
s

–
d
m

fs
(i
n
c
ip

ie
n
t
c
a
ri
e
s

le
s
io

n
s

in
e
n
a
m

e
l
+

d
e
n
ti
n
a
l
le

s
io

n
s
),

s
e
a
la

n
ts

(s
u
rf

a
c
e

le
v
e
l)
,
p
re

s
e
n
c
e

o
f
v
is

ib
le

p
la

q
u
e

(V
P

),
g
in

g
iv

a
l
b
le

e
d
in

g
(G

B
)

o
n

b
u
c
c
a
l

to
o
th

s
u
rf

a
c
e
s
,

M
u
ta

n
s

s
tr

e
p
to

c
o
c
c
i
(M

S
)

fr
o
m

p
ro

x
im

a
l
s
u
rf

a
c
e

o
f
a

c
e
n
tr

a
l
m

a
x
il
la

ry
in

c
is

o
r

a
n
d

o
f
th

e

m
o
s
t
d
is

ta
l
m

a
n
d
ib

u
la

r
ri
g
h
t
m

o
la

r,
q
u
e
s
ti
o
n
n
a
ir
e

(c
o
n
s
u
m

p
ti
o
n

o
f
fl
u
o
ri
d
e
s

a
n
d

c
a
n
d
ie

s
)

E
X

:
D

e
n
ta

l
u
n
it

w
it
h

g
o
o
d

li
g
h
t
a
n
d

c
o
m

p
re

s
s
e
d

a
ir
,
m

ir
ro

r
w

it
h

1
.6

-f
o
ld

m
a
g
n
if
ic

a
ti
o
n
,
b
lu

n
t

p
e
ri
o
d
o
n
ta

l
p
ro

b
e

a
n
d

fi
b
e
r-
o
p
ti
c

tr
a
n
s
il
lu

m
in

a
ti
o
n

2
2
2
6

•
P

ie
n
ih

ä
k
k
in

e
n

e
t
a
l.

1
2
,
2
0
0
4

(S
a
a
ri
jä

rv
i)

,

F
in

la
n
d

M
e
a
n

n
e
w

le
s
io

n
s
:
1
.7

(9
%

d
e
v
e
lo

p
e
d

�
3

m
a
n
if
e
s
t

c
a
ri
e
s
)

C
a
ri
e
s

in
c
id

e
n
c
e

a
s
s
o
c
ia

te
d

w
it
h

h
ig

h
M

S
le

v
e
ls

a
n
d

p
o
s
it
iv

e
ly

c
o
rr

e
la

te
d

w
it
h

W
IG

s
y
n
th

e
s
is

C
a
ri
e
s

in
c
id

e
n
c
e

(h
ig

h
ri
s
k
:
�

3

m
a
n
if
e
s
t
c
a
ri
e
s
)

M
W

,
C

S
,

C
A

1
V

B
:
C

a
ri
e
s

(i
n
it
ia

l
+

m
a
n
if
e
s
t
le

s
io

n
s
),

p
la

q
u
e

o
n

th
e

la
b
ia

l
s
u
rf

a
c
e
s

o
f
u
p
p
e
r

in
c
is

o
rs

,

m
u
ta

n
s

s
tr

e
p
to

c
o
c
c
i
v
ir
u
le

n
c
e

fa
c
to

rs
(M

S
a
c
id

o
g
e
n
e
s
is

,
w

a
te

r-
in

s
o
lu

b
le

g
lu

c
a
n

s
y
n
th

e
s
is

-

W
IG

,
a
d
h
e
re

n
c
e

a
n
a
ly

s
is

)

E
X

:
D

e
n
ta

l
s
u
rf

a
c
e
s

b
ru

s
h
e
d

a
n
d

d
ri
e
d

w
it
h

g
a
u
z
e

1
-

2
.5

1
4
2
/1

0

1

M
a
tt
o
s
-G

ra
n
e
r

e
t
a
l.

1
9
,
2
0
0
0

(P
ir
a
c
ic

a
b
a
),

B
ra

z
il

D
e
v
e
lo

p
in

g
c
a
ri
e
s

b
e
fo

re
th

e
a
g
e

o
f
2

in
d
ic

a
te

d
th

a
t

a
c
h
il
d

is
a
t
ri
s
k

fo
r

d
e
n
ta

l
c
a
ri
e
s

D
if
fe

re
n
c
e
s

in
d
ft

s
c
o
re

s

C
S

,
S

t
1
.5

V
B

:
C

a
ri
e
s

(c
a
v
it
a
ti
o
n
):

d
e
c
a
y
e
d

o
r

fi
ll
e
d

p
ri
m

a
ry

te
e
th

(d
ft
)

E
X

:
M

ir
ro

r,
e
x
p
lo

re
r,

o
p
ti
m

a
l
li
g
h
t
a
ft
e
r

d
ry

in
g

(c
o
tt
o
n
/a

ir
)

1
.5

3
7
4

Y
o
n
e
z
u

a
n
d

M
a
c
h
id

a
1
8
,

1
9
9
8

(T
o
k
y
o
),

J
a
p
a
n

M
a
in

re
s
u

lt
s

R
P

/R
F

§
O

u
tc

o
m

e
V

a
ri

a
b

le

D
a
ta

A
n

a
ly

s
is

¶

T
im e
‡

V
a
ri

a
b

le
s

c
o

ll
e
c
te

d
a
t

b
a
s
e
li
n

e
(V

B
)

E
x
a
m

in
a
ti

o
n

(E
X

)

A
g

e
†

S
a
m

p
l

e
*

A
u

th
o

r,
y
e
a
r

a
n

d
lo

c
a
l

R
F

:
la

c
k

o
f
d
a
il
y

to
o
th

b
ru

s
h
in

g
,
c
o
n
s
u
m

p
ti
o
n

o
f

c
a
n
d
ie

s

T
im

in
g

o
f
c
a
ri
e
s

o
n
s
e
t
o
n

p
ri
m

a
ry

a
n
d

p
e
rm

a
n
e
n
t

m
o
la

rs

S
A

7
V

B
:
C

a
ri
e
s

(i
n
it
ia

l:
re

s
tr

ic
te

d
to

th
e

e
n
a
m

e
l
+

m
a
n
if
e
s
t
c
a
ri
e
s
:
i

n
d
e
n
ti
n

n
e
e
d
in

g
re

s
to

ra
ti
v
e

d
e
n
ta

l
c
a
re

),
q
u
e
s
ti
o
n
n
a
ir
e

(c
o
n
s
u
m

p
ti
o
n

o
f
c
a
n
d
ie

s
,
u
s
e

o
f
fl
u
o

ri
d
e

ta
b
le

ts
,

to
o
th

b
ru

s
h
in

g
,

p
a
c
if
ie

r
s
u
c
k
in

g
,
u
s
e

o
f
a

n
u
rs

in
g

b
o
tt
le

a
t
n
ig

h
t,

p
ro

lo
n
g
e
d

b
re

a
s
tf
e
e
d
in

g
)

E
X

:
L
o
c
a
l
h
e
a
lt
h

c
e
n
te

r
d
e
n
ti
s
ts

(n
o
rm

a
l
ro

u
ti
n
e
s
)

2
1
8
3

O
ll
il
a

a
n
d

L
a
rm

a
s

1
3
,
2
0
0
7

(O
u
lu

),
F

in
la

n
d

R
P

:
in

c
ip

ie
n
t
c
a
ri
e
s

le
s
io

n
s
;
R

F
:
M

S
s
tr

ip
,
u
s
e

o
f

c
a
n
d
ie

s
N

o
n
e

o
f
th

e
s
tu

d
ie

d
v
a
ri
a
b
le

re
a
c
h
e
d

a
n

a
c
c
u
ra

c
y

o
f

8
0
%

In
c
re

m
e
n
t
o
f

c
a
v
it
a
te

d
c
a
ri
o
u
s

le
s
io

n
s

a
n
d

o
r

fi
ll
in

g
s

>
0

M
L
R

,

R
O

C

3
V

B
:
C

a
ri
e
s

–
d
m

fs
(i
n
c
ip

ie
n
t
c
a
ri
e
s

le
s
io

n
s

in
e
n
a
m

e
l
+

d
e
n
ti
n
a
l
le

s
io

n
s
),

s
e
a
la

n
ts

(s
u
rf

a
c
e

le
v
e
l)
,
p
re

s
e
n
c
e

o
f
v
is

ib
le

p
la

q
u
e

(V
P

),
g
in

g
iv

a
l
b
le

e
d
in

g
(G

B
)

o
n

b
u
c
c
a
l

to
o
th

s
u
rf

a
c
e
s
,

M
u
ta

n
s

s
tr

e
p
to

c
o
c
c
i
(M

S
)

fr
o
m

p
ro

x
im

a
l
s
u
rf

a
c
e

o
f
a

c
e
n
tr

a
l
m

a
x
il
la

ry
in

c
is

o
r

a
n
d

o
f
th

e

m
o
s
t
d
is

ta
l
m

a
n
d
ib

u
la

r
ri
g
h
t
m

o
la

r,
q
u
e
s
ti
o
n
n
a
ir
e

(c
o
n
s
u
m

p
ti
o
n

o
f
fl
u
o
ri
d
e
s

a
n
d

c
a
n
d
ie

s
)

E
X

:
D

e
n
ta

l
u
n
it

w
it
h

g
o
o
d

li
g
h
t
a
n
d

c
o
m

p
re

s
s
e
d

a
ir
,
m

ir
ro

r
w

it
h

1
.6

-f
o
ld

m
a
g
n
if
ic

a
ti
o
n
,
b
lu

n
t

p
e
ri
o
d
o
n
ta

l
p
ro

b
e

a
n
d

fi
b
e
r-
o
p
ti
c

tr
a
n
s
il
lu

m
in

a
ti
o
n

2
2
2
6

•
P

ie
n
ih

ä
k
k
in

e
n

e
t
a
l.

1
2
,
2
0
0
4

(S
a
a
ri
jä

rv
i)

,

F
in

la
n
d

M
e
a
n

n
e
w

le
s
io

n
s
:
1
.7

(9
%

d
e
v
e
lo

p
e
d

�
3

m
a
n
if
e
s
t

c
a
ri
e
s
)

C
a
ri
e
s

in
c
id

e
n
c
e

a
s
s
o
c
ia

te
d

w
it
h

h
ig

h
M

S
le

v
e
ls

a
n
d

p
o
s
it
iv

e
ly

c
o
rr

e
la

te
d

w
it
h

W
IG

s
y
n
th

e
s
is

C
a
ri
e
s

in
c
id

e
n
c
e

(h
ig

h
ri
s
k
:
�

3

m
a
n
if
e
s
t
c
a
ri
e
s
)

M
W

,
C

S
,

C
A

1
V

B
:
C

a
ri
e
s

(i
n
it
ia

l
+

m
a
n
if
e
s
t
le

s
io

n
s
),

p
la

q
u
e

o
n

th
e

la
b
ia

l
s
u
rf

a
c
e
s

o
f
u
p
p
e
r

in
c
is

o
rs

,

m
u
ta

n
s

s
tr

e
p
to

c
o
c
c
i
v
ir
u
le

n
c
e

fa
c
to

rs
(M

S
a
c
id

o
g
e
n
e
s
is

,
w

a
te

r-
in

s
o
lu

b
le

g
lu

c
a
n

s
y
n
th

e
s
is

-

W
IG

,
a
d
h
e
re

n
c
e

a
n
a
ly

s
is

)

E
X

:
D

e
n
ta

l
s
u
rf

a
c
e
s

b
ru

s
h
e
d

a
n
d

d
ri
e
d

w
it
h

g
a
u
z
e

1
-

2
.5

1
4
2
/1

0

1

M
a
tt
o
s
-G

ra
n
e
r

e
t
a
l.

1
9
,
2
0
0
0

(P
ir
a
c
ic

a
b
a
),

B
ra

z
il

D
e
v
e
lo

p
in

g
c
a
ri
e
s

b
e
fo

re
th

e
a
g
e

o
f
2

in
d
ic

a
te

d
th

a
t

a
c
h
il
d

is
a
t
ri
s
k

fo
r

d
e
n
ta

l
c
a
ri
e
s

D
if
fe

re
n
c
e
s

in
d
ft

s
c
o
re

s

C
S

,
S

t
1
.5

V
B

:
C

a
ri
e
s

(c
a
v
it
a
ti
o
n
):

d
e
c
a
y
e
d

o
r

fi
ll
e
d

p
ri
m

a
ry

te
e
th

(d
ft
)

E
X

:
M

ir
ro

r,
e
x
p
lo

re
r,

o
p
ti
m

a
l
li
g
h
t
a
ft
e
r

d
ry

in
g

(c
o
tt
o
n
/a

ir
)

1
.5

3
7
4

Y
o
n
e
z
u

a
n
d

M
a
c
h
id

a
1
8
,

1
9
9
8

(T
o
k
y
o
),

J
a
p
a
n

M
a
in

re
s
u

lt
s

R
P

/R
F

§
O

u
tc

o
m

e
V

a
ri

a
b

le

D
a
ta

A
n

a
ly

s
is

¶

T
im e
‡

V
a
ri

a
b

le
s

c
o

ll
e
c
te

d
a
t

b
a
s
e
li
n

e
(V

B
)

E
x
a
m

in
a
ti

o
n

(E
X

)

A
g

e
†

S
a
m

p
l

e
*

A
u

th
o

r,
y
e
a
r

a
n

d
lo

c
a
l

1684

Tables 1 to 4 present a detailed review of the papers
published over the last 10 years (1997-2007) about caries
risks assessment in infants (<2 years), preschool children
(2-5 years), schoolchildren (6-12 years) and adolescents
(13-18 years) is presented. The age groups were established
based on those of Medline. The studies on caries risk
assessment during the last 10 years were conducted mainly
in schoolchildren (n=19), followed by preschool children
(n=9), adolescents (n=7), and infants (n=4). The majority
of them were related to data collected in Finland (n=7),
followed by Brazil (n=4), Sweden (n=3), China (n=3),
Norway (n=3), USA (n=3), the Netherlands (n=3),
Belgium (n=2), Greece (n=2), Japan (n=2), Australia
(n=1), Denmark (n=1), Germany (n=1), Israel (n=1),
Italy (n=1), Mexico (n=1) and New Zealand (n=1). As
one can see, European countries have contributed a great
deal to the dental literature on caries risk assessment over
the last decade. For classifying a variable as a risk factor
(RF) or risk predictor (RP), the study had to use
multivariate regression analyses including several variables
in the regression models.
There are few studies targeting infants at baseline
examination, and these collected mainly dental variables
(Table 1). Only one study12 used logistic regression models
with multiple variables for identifying risk predictors/
factors (RP/RF) for caries development, which are the
preferable model for this type of study, as dental caries
presents a multifactorial and complex etiology8. In the
Pienihäkkinen’s et al.12 study the mutans streptococcus
counts, the presence of incipient caries lesions, and the
use of candies were predictors for caries increment after a
3-year-follow-up. Another study13 used survival analysis
and identified the consumption of candies and the lack of
daily toothbrushing as the variables that impacted on caries
onset. As one can see, sugar consumption is an important
variable that may identify children at risk of caries in this
age group. It is an important finding since according to
Zero14, the relationship between sugar consumption and
dental caries is less strong in comparison to that from the
prefluoride era. Therefore dietary counseling is highly
recommended to mothers and should be part of oral health
preventive programs in public health services. Considering
the small number of studies in this age group during the
last 10 years, further studies should be conducted and make
use of more appropriate statistical analysis.
As regards studies concerning preschool children (Table
2), 9 papers published over the last 10 years were selected.
Variables such as dental, socioeconomic, behavioral,
dietary, microbiological, medical and demographic data
have been collected in study periods ranging from 0.5 to
10 years. Most studies (n=7) used regression models as
statistical analyses and showed that the main risk predictor
was caries experience and the risk factors were sugar
consumption and the presence of plaque/toothbrushing
related habits. Caries experience detected at baseline has

T
a
b
le

 
1
 
- 

R
ev

ie
w

 o
f 

li
te

ra
tu

re
 o

n
 c

ar
ie

s 
ri

sk
 a

ss
es

sm
en

t 
in

 i
n
fa

n
ts

 (
0
-2

 y
ea

rs
 o

ld
) 

o
v
er

 t
h
e 

la
st

 1
0
 y

ea
rs

 (
1
9
9
7
-2

0
0
7
)

Braz J Oral Sci. 7(27):1682-1690                              An overview of caries risk assessment in 0-18 year-olds over the last ten years (1997-2007)



1685

T
a
b
le

 
2
 
- 

R
ev

ie
w

 o
f 

li
te

ra
tu

re
 o

n
 c

ar
ie

s 
ri

sk
 a

ss
es

sm
en

t 
in

 p
re

sc
h
o
o
l 

ch
il

d
re

n
 (

2
-5

 y
ea

rs
 o

ld
) 

o
v
er

 t
h
e 

la
st

 1
0
 y

ea
rs

 (
1
9
9
7
-2

0
0
7
)

*
S

am
p
le

 s
iz

e 
at

 i
n
it

ia
l/

fi
n
al

 e
x
am

in
at

io
n
; 

†
A

g
e 

at
 b

as
el

in
e 

(y
ea

rs
);

 ‡
S

tu
d
y
 l

as
ti

n
g
 (

y
ea

rs
);

 ¶
S

ta
ti

st
ic

al
 t

es
ts

: 
A

N
O

V
A

=
A

n
al

y
si

s 
o
f 

V
ar

ia
n
ce

; 
C

A
=

C
o
rr

el
at

io
n
 a

n
al

y
si

s;
 C

S
=

C
h
i-

sq
u
ar

e;
K

W
=

K
ru

sk
al

l 
W

al
li

s;
 M

L
R

=
M

u
lt

ip
le

 l
o
g
is

ti
c 

re
g
re

ss
io

n
; 

M
N

=
M

cN
em

ar
; 

M
W

=
M

an
n
-W

h
it

n
ey

; 
P

V
=

P
re

d
ic

ti
v
e 

v
al

u
es

; 
R

O
C

=
R

ec
ei

v
er

 o
p
er

at
o
r 

ch
ar

ac
te

ri
st

ic
 c

u
rv

es
; 

S
ch

=
S

ch
ef

fe
;

S
n
=

S
en

si
ti

v
it

y
; 

S
p
=

S
p
ec

if
ic

it
y
; 

S
t=

S
tu

d
en

t’
s 

t-
te

st
; 

W
=

W
il

co
x
o
n
; 

§
R

P
/R

F
: 

R
is

k
 p

re
d
ic

to
rs

/R
is

k
 f

ac
to

rs
 o

b
ta

in
ed

 i
n
 R

eg
re

ss
io

n
 A

n
al

y
se

s

Braz J Oral Sci. 7(27):1682-1690                              An overview of caries risk assessment in 0-18 year-olds over the last ten years (1997-2007)

S
ig

n
if
ic

a
n
t

c
o
rr

e
la

ti
o
n

b
e
tw

e
e
n

c
a
ri
e
s

in
th

e
p
ri
m

a
ry

d
e
n
ti
ti
o
n

a
n
d

in
p
e
rm

a
n
e
n
t

te
e
th

R
P

:
�
1

c
a
ri
o
u
s

le
s
io

n
o
n

p
ri
m

a
ry

s
e
c
o
n
d

m
o
la

rs

H
ig

h
e
s
t

s
u
m

o
fS

n
a
n
d

S
p

(1
4
8
%

):
p
re

d
ic

to
r
“m

o
re

th
a
n

tw
o

le
s
io

n
s

in
p
ri
m

a
ry

s
e
c
o
n
d

m
o
la

rs
”

T
a
k
in

g
p
a
rt

o
f

a
ri
s
k

g
ro

u
p

(b
a

s
e
d

o
n

c
a
ri
e
s

in
c
re

m
e
n
t

in

p
e
rm

a
n
e
n
t

te
e
th

)

C
S

,
S

t,

C
A

,
M

L
R

,

S
n
,
S

p
,

P
V

,
R

O
C

5
V

B
:
C

a
ri
e
s

(e
n
a
m

e
l
+

d
e
n
ti
n

c
a
ri
e
s
;
v
is

u
a
l
in

s
p
e
c
ti
o
n
)

E
X

:
T
e
e
th

p
o
li
s
h
e
d

w
it
h

p
ro

p
h
y
la

c
ti
c

p
a
s
te

,
a
ir
-d

ri
e
d
/c

o
tt
o
n

ro
ll
s
,
o
p
e
ra

ti
n
g

li
g
h
ts

,
b
it
e
w

in
g

ra
d
io

g
ra

p
h
s

5
2
1
7
/1

8

6

S
k
e
ie

e
t
a
l.

2
8
,

2
0
0
6

(B
e
rg

e
n
),

N
o
rw

a
y

M
e
a
n

in
c
re

m
e
n
t

(e
n
a
m

e
l
+

d
e
n
ti
n

le
s
io

n
s
):

3
.0

5

R
P

:
�

1
le

s
io

n
s

o
n

p
ro

x
im

a
l
s
u
rf

a
c
e
s

o
f

th
e

p
ri
m

a
ry

m
o
la

rs

T
a
k
in

g
p
a
rt

o
f

a
ri
s
k

g
ro

u
p

(c
a

ri
e
s

in
c
re

m
e
n

t
in

p
ri
m

a
ry

te
e
th

)

S
t,

M
L
R

5
V

B
:
C

a
ri
e
s

(e
n
a
m

e
l
+

d
e
n
ti
n
e

le
s
io

n
s
)

E
X

:
T
e
e
th

p
o
li
s
h
e
d

a
n
d

d
ri
e
d
,
p
ro

b
e
s
,
p
la

in
,
m

ir
ro

rs
,
fa

v
o
ra

b
le

lig
h
t
c
o
n
d
it
io

n
s
,
b
it
e
w

in
g

ra
d
io

g
ra

p
h
s

5
2
1
7
/1

8

6

S
k
e
ie

e
t
a
l.

2
7
,

2
0
0
4

(B
e
rg

e
n
),

N
o
rw

a
y

M
e
a
n

d
m

fs
:

4
.4

3
a
t

b
a
s
e
li
n
e

a
n
d

6
.7

8
a
t

fo
ll
o
w
-u

p
.

G
ro

u
p
s

w
it
h

h
ig

h
M

u
ta

n
s

S
tr

e
p
to

c
o
c
c
i
(M

S
)

a
n
d
/o

r
h
ig

h
p
la

q
u
e

M
S

s
c
o
re

s
:

s
ig

n
if
ic

a
n
tl
y

h
ig

h
e
r

c
a
ri
e
s

in
c
id

e
n
c
e

R
P

:
c
a
ri
e
s

e
x
p
e
ri
e
n
c
e

a
t

b
a
s
e
li
n
e
;

R
F

:
h
ig

h
p
la

q
u
e

M
S

s
c
o
re

�
1

n
e
w

c
a
ri
o
u
s

s
u
rf

a
c
e

S
n
,
S

p
,

P
V

,
C

S
,

M
L
R

0
.5

V
B

:
C

a
ri
e
s

(W
H

O
c
ri
te

ri
a
),

d
e
n
ta

l
p
la

q
u
e

(v
is

u
a
ll
y

o
n

th
e

la
b
ia

l
su

rf
a
c
e

o
f
th

e
m

a
x
il
la

ry

in
c
is

o
rs

w
it
h
o
u
t
d
is

c
lo

s
in

g
s
o
lu

ti
o
n
),

o
ra

l
m

ic
ro

b
io

lo
g
y

(u
n
s
ti
m
u
la

te
d

s
a
li
v
a

a
n
d

p
la

q
u
e

in
fo

u
r

p
ro

x
im

a
l
s
u
rf

a
c
e
s
:
5
4
-d

,
5
5

-m
,
7
4
-d

,
7
5
-m

)

E
X

:
V

is
u
a
l
in

s
p
e
c
ti
o
n

1
.5

-

5

1
4
7
/1

2

9

S
e
k
i
e
t
a
l.2

6
,

2
0
0
3

(T
o
k
y
o
),

J
a
p
a
n

C
h
il
d
re

n
w

it
h

E
C

C
h
a
d

th
e

h
ig

h
e
s
t

n
u
m

b
e
r

o
f

n
e
w

a
ff
e
c
te

d
s
u
rf

a
c
e
s

p
e
r

y
e
a
r,

fo
ll
o
w

e
d

b
y

th
e

c
h
il
d
re

n

w
it
h

p
o
s
te

ri
o
r

c
a
ri
e
s

a
n
d

th
e

c
a
ri
e
s-

fr
e
e

c
h
il
d
re

n
.

E
C

C
g
ro

u
p
s

d
if
fe

re
d

s
ta

ti
s
ti
c
a
ll
y

fr
o
m

c
a
ri
e
s-

fr
e
e

g
ro

u
p

a
n
d

p
o
s
te

ri
o
r

c
a
ri
e
s

g
ro

u
p

N
e
w

a
ff
e

c
te

d
s
u
rf

a
c
e
s

p
e
r

y
e
a
r

A
N

O
V

A
,

S
c
h

7
-

1
0

V
B

:
C

a
ri
e
s
:
3

g
ro

u
p
s

w
it
h

5
0

c
h
il
d
re

n
e
a
c
h

b
e
in

g
c
a
ri
e
s

fr
e
e

c
h
il
dr

e
n

(C
F

),
c
h
il
d
re

n
w

it
h

e
a
rl
y

c
h
il
d
h
o
o
d

c
a
ri
e
s

(E
C

C
),

a
n
d

c
h
il
d
re

n
w

it
h

p
o
s
te

ri
o
r

c
a
ri
e
s
o
n
ly

(P
C

)

E
X

:
F

il
e
s

o
f
tw

o
p
ri
v
a
te

p
e
d
ia

tr
ic

d
e
n
ta

l
c
li
n
ic

s
,
ra

d
io

g
ra

p
h
ic

e
xa

m
in

a
ti
o
n
s

3
-5

1
5
0

P
e
re

tz
e
t
a
l.

2
5
,

2
0
0
3
,

(J
e
ru

s
a
le

m
a
n
d

P
e
ta

h
T

ik
v
a
),

Is
ra

e
l

R
P

:
c
a
ri
e
s

in
p
ri
m

a
ry

te
e
th

(c
a
ri
e
s

o
n

p
ri
m

a
ry

m
o
la

rs
:

h
ig

h
e
s
t

p
re

d
ic

ti
v
e

v
a
lu

e
-

8
5
.4

%
)

D
e
v
e
lo

p
in

g
c
a
ri
e
s

in
p
e
rm

a
n
e
n
t

d
e
n
ti
ti
o
n

M
L
R

,
C

A
,

P
V

8
V

B
:
C

a
ri
e
s

(d
m

f/
D

M
F
-

W
H

O
c
ri
te

ri
a
)

o
n

e
n
ti
re

d
e
n
ti
ti
o
n

a
n
d

o
n

s
u
b
s
e
ts

o
f
te

e
th

:
m

a
x
ill
a
ry

in
c
is

o
rs

,
m

a
x
il
la

ry
a
n
te

ri
o
r

te
e
th

,
m

a
x
il
la

ry
fi
rs

t
a
n
d

s
e
c
o
n
d

m
o
la

rs
,
m

a
n
d
ib

u
la

r
fi
rs

t
a
n
d

s
e
c
o
n
d

m
o
la

rs
,
a
ll

p
ri
m

a
ry

m
o
la

rs

E
X

:
C

la
s
s
ro

o
m

s
e
tt
in

g
,
n
a
tu

ra
l
li
g
h
t,

m
o
u
th

m
ir
ro

rs
,
e
x
p
lo

re
rs

3
-

5
5
0
4
/3

6

2

L
i
a
n
d

W
a
n
g

2
4
,

2
0
0
2

(B
e
ij
in

g
),

C
h
in

a

R
P

:
p
re

v
io

u
s

c
a
ri
e
s

e
x
p
e
ri
e
n
c
e

(m
o
s
t

im
p
o
rt

a
n
t

fa
c
to

r)
,

fl
u
o
ri
d
e

u
s
a
g
e
;

R
F

:
n
o
t

a
tt

e
n
d
in

g
n
u
rs

e
ri
e
s

w
it
h

g
u
id

e
li
n
e
s

fo
r

s
u
g
a
r

in
ta

k
e
,

fr
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

a
n
d

a
m

o
u
n
t

o
f

s
u
g
a
r

in
ta

k
e
,

to
o
th

b
ru

s
h
in

g
re

la
te

d
h
a
b
it
s

C
a
ri
e
s

in
c
re

m
e
n
t

M
L
R

1
V

B
:
C

a
ri
e
s

(W
H

O
c
ri
te

ri
a
),

e
n
a
m

e
l
h
y
p
o
p
la

s
ia

(D
D

E
in

d
e
x
–

D
e
v
e
lo

p
m

e
n
ta

l
D

e
fe

c
ts

o
f

E
n
a
m

e
l)
,
n
u
tr

it
io

n
a
l
s
ta

tu
s
,
s
u
g
a
r

in
ta

k
e

d
u
ri
n
g

3
n
o
n-

c
o
n
s
e
c
u
ti
v
e

d
a
y
s
,
d
a
il
y

fr
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

o
f

s
u
g
a
r

in
ta

k
e
,
2
4
-h

p
e
ri
o
d

d
ie

ta
ry

re
c
a
ll

a
t
h
o
m

e
,
q
u
e
s
ti
o
n
n
a
ir
e

(s
o
c
io

e
c
o
n
o
m

ic
,
m
e
d
ic

a
l,

d
e
m

o
g
ra

p
h
ic

,
d
ie

ta
ry

h
is

to
ry

a
n
d

d
e
n
ta

l-r
e
la

te
d

in
fo

rm
a
ti
o
n
)

E
X

:
C

la
s
s
ro

o
m

,
h
e
a
d

la
m

p
,
m

o
u
th

m
ir
ro

r,
p
ro

b
e
s

3
6
5
0
/5

1

0

R
o
d
ri
g
u
e
s

a
n
d

S
h
e
ih

a
m

2
3
,

2
0
0
0

(R
e
c
if
e
),

B
ra

z
il

H
ig

h
c
a
ri
e
s

ri
s
k

c
h
il
d
re

n
a
t

b
a
s
e
li
n
e

(>
5
0

c
o
lo

n
y

fo
rm

in
g

u
n
it
s
):

s
ig

n
if
ic

a
n
tl
y

g
re

a
te

r
c
a
ri
e
s

s
c
o
re

s
a
t

fi
n
a
l
e
x
a
m

in
a
ti
o
n

D
if
fe

re
n
c
e
s

in

c
a
ri
e
s

s
c
o
re

s

K
W

,
M

W
6

V
B

:
C

a
ri
e
s

(R
a
d
ik

e
m

e
th

o
d
),

m
u
ta

n
s

s
tr

e
p
to

c
o
c
c
i
c
o
u
n
ts

in
s
a
li
v
a

E
X

:
P

o
rt

a
b
le

d
e
n
ta

l
c
h
a
ir
,
m

ir
ro

r,
#
2
3

e
x
p
lo

re
r

fo
c
u
s
a
b
le

fl
a
s
h
li
gh

ts

3
.8

(m
e

a
n
)

8
5
/8

3
T

h
ib

o
d
e
a
u

a
n
d

O
’S

u
ll
iv

a
n

2
2
,

1
9
9
9

(H
a
rt

fo
rd

),
U

S
A

R
P

:
p
a
c
if
ie

r-
s
u
c
k
in

g
�

2
y
e
a
rs

;
R

F
:

u
s
e

o
f

n
u
rs

in
g

b
o
tt

le
a
t

n
ig

h
t

O
c
c
u
rr

e
n

c
e

o
f

c
a
ri
e
s

(y
e
s
/n

o
)

C
S

,
M

L
R

2
V

B
:
C

a
ri
e
s

(i
n
it
ia

l
+

m
a
n
if
e
s
t
c
a
ri
e
s
),

s
a
li
v
a
ry

la
c
to

b
a
c
il
li

a
n
d
c
a
n
d
id

a
,
q
u
e
s
ti
o
n
n
a
ir
e

(p
a
c
if
ie

r-
a
n
d

th
u
m

b
-s

u
c
k
in

g
,
b
re

a
s
tf
e
e
d
in

g
,
b
o
tt
le

-f
e
e
d
in

g
a
t
n
ig

h
t,

s
o
c
ia

l
c
la

s
s

o
f
th

e

fa
m

il
y
)

E
X

:
A

t
d
e
n
ta

l
h
e
a
lt
h

c
e
n
te

rs

2
.5

(m
e

a
n
)

1
6
6
/1

5

2

O
ll
il
a

e
t
a
l.

2
1
,

1
9
9
8

(O
u
lu

),

F
in

la
n
d

R
P

:
M

o
th

e
rs

’e
d
u
c
a
ti
o
n

(u
p

to
n
in

e
y
e
a
rs

o
f

b
a
s
ic

e
d
u
c
a
ti
o
n
),

p
re

s
e
n
c
e

o
f

c
a
ri
e
s
;

R
F

:
p
re

s
e
n
c
e

o
f

p
la

q
u
e

C
h
a
n
g
e
s

in
d
m

f

in
d
e
x

C
S

,
M

W
,

K
W

,
W

,

M
L
R

2
V

B
:
C

a
ri
e
s

(e
n
a
m

e
l
le

s
io

n
s

+
d
m

f
in

d
e
x
),

d
e
n
ta

l
c
le

a
n
li
n
e
s
s

(n
o

d
is
c
lo

s
in

g
s
o
lu

ti
o
n
),

q
u
e
s
ti
o
n
n
a
ir
e

(b
a
s
ic

e
d
u
c
a
ti
o
n
a
l
le

v
e
l,

o
c
c
u
p
a
ti
o
n
a
l
e
d
u
c
a
ti
o
n
,o

c
c
u
p
a
ti
o
n
,
to

o
th

b
ru

s
h
in

g

b
e
h
a
v
io

rs
,
u
s
e

o
f
x
y
li
to

l
c
h
e
w

in
g

g
u
m

,
s
n
a
c
k
in

g
o
n

s
w

e
e
ts

a
n
d

fre
q
u
e
n
c
y

o
f
s
n
a
c
k
in

g
,

d
ri
n
k
in

g
s
o
m

e
th

in
g

o
th

e
r

th
a
n

p
u
re

w
a
te

r)

E
X

:
P

u
b
li
c

d
e
n
ta

l
c
e
n
te

rs

3
1

2
9

2
/1

0
0

3
M

a
tt
il
a

e
t
a
l.2

0
,

1
9
9
8

(T
u
rk

u
),

F
in

la
n
d

M
a
in

re
s
u

lt
s

R
P

/R
F

§
O

u
tc

o
m

e
V

a
ri

a
b

le

D
a
ta

A
n

a
ly

s
is

¶

T
im e
‡

V
a
ri

a
b

le
s

c
o

ll
e
c
te

d
a
t

b
a
s
e
li
n

e
(V

B
)

E
x
a
m

in
a
ti

o
n

(E
X

)

A
g

e
†

S
a
m

p
l

e
*

A
u

th
o

r,
y
e
a
r

a
n

d
lo

c
a
l

S
ig

n
if
ic

a
n
t

c
o
rr

e
la

ti
o
n

b
e
tw

e
e
n

c
a
ri
e
s

in
th

e
p
ri
m

a
ry

d
e
n
ti
ti
o
n

a
n
d

in
p
e
rm

a
n
e
n
t

te
e
th

R
P

:
�
1

c
a
ri
o
u
s

le
s
io

n
o
n

p
ri
m

a
ry

s
e
c
o
n
d

m
o
la

rs

H
ig

h
e
s
t

s
u
m

o
fS

n
a
n
d

S
p

(1
4
8
%

):
p
re

d
ic

to
r
“m

o
re

th
a
n

tw
o

le
s
io

n
s

in
p
ri
m

a
ry

s
e
c
o
n
d

m
o
la

rs
”

T
a
k
in

g
p
a
rt

o
f

a
ri
s
k

g
ro

u
p

(b
a

s
e
d

o
n

c
a
ri
e
s

in
c
re

m
e
n
t

in

p
e
rm

a
n
e
n
t

te
e
th

)

C
S

,
S

t,

C
A

,
M

L
R

,

S
n
,
S

p
,

P
V

,
R

O
C

5
V

B
:
C

a
ri
e
s

(e
n
a
m

e
l
+

d
e
n
ti
n

c
a
ri
e
s
;
v
is

u
a
l
in

s
p
e
c
ti
o
n
)

E
X

:
T
e
e
th

p
o
li
s
h
e
d

w
it
h

p
ro

p
h
y
la

c
ti
c

p
a
s
te

,
a
ir
-d

ri
e
d
/c

o
tt
o
n

ro
ll
s
,
o
p
e
ra

ti
n
g

li
g
h
ts

,
b
it
e
w

in
g

ra
d
io

g
ra

p
h
s

5
2
1
7
/1

8

6

S
k
e
ie

e
t
a
l.

2
8
,

2
0
0
6

(B
e
rg

e
n
),

N
o
rw

a
y

M
e
a
n

in
c
re

m
e
n
t

(e
n
a
m

e
l
+

d
e
n
ti
n

le
s
io

n
s
):

3
.0

5

R
P

:
�

1
le

s
io

n
s

o
n

p
ro

x
im

a
l
s
u
rf

a
c
e
s

o
f

th
e

p
ri
m

a
ry

m
o
la

rs

T
a
k
in

g
p
a
rt

o
f

a
ri
s
k

g
ro

u
p

(c
a

ri
e
s

in
c
re

m
e
n

t
in

p
ri
m

a
ry

te
e
th

)

S
t,

M
L
R

5
V

B
:
C

a
ri
e
s

(e
n
a
m

e
l
+

d
e
n
ti
n
e

le
s
io

n
s
)

E
X

:
T
e
e
th

p
o
li
s
h
e
d

a
n
d

d
ri
e
d
,
p
ro

b
e
s
,
p
la

in
,
m

ir
ro

rs
,
fa

v
o
ra

b
le

lig
h
t
c
o
n
d
it
io

n
s
,
b
it
e
w

in
g

ra
d
io

g
ra

p
h
s

5
2
1
7
/1

8

6

S
k
e
ie

e
t
a
l.

2
7
,

2
0
0
4

(B
e
rg

e
n
),

N
o
rw

a
y

M
e
a
n

d
m

fs
:

4
.4

3
a
t

b
a
s
e
li
n
e

a
n
d

6
.7

8
a
t

fo
ll
o
w
-u

p
.

G
ro

u
p
s

w
it
h

h
ig

h
M

u
ta

n
s

S
tr

e
p
to

c
o
c
c
i
(M

S
)

a
n
d
/o

r
h
ig

h
p
la

q
u
e

M
S

s
c
o
re

s
:

s
ig

n
if
ic

a
n
tl
y

h
ig

h
e
r

c
a
ri
e
s

in
c
id

e
n
c
e

R
P

:
c
a
ri
e
s

e
x
p
e
ri
e
n
c
e

a
t

b
a
s
e
li
n
e
;

R
F

:
h
ig

h
p
la

q
u
e

M
S

s
c
o
re

�
1

n
e
w

c
a
ri
o
u
s

s
u
rf

a
c
e

S
n
,
S

p
,

P
V

,
C

S
,

M
L
R

0
.5

V
B

:
C

a
ri
e
s

(W
H

O
c
ri
te

ri
a
),

d
e
n
ta

l
p
la

q
u
e

(v
is

u
a
ll
y

o
n

th
e

la
b
ia

l
su

rf
a
c
e

o
f
th

e
m

a
x
il
la

ry

in
c
is

o
rs

w
it
h
o
u
t
d
is

c
lo

s
in

g
s
o
lu

ti
o
n
),

o
ra

l
m

ic
ro

b
io

lo
g
y

(u
n
s
ti
m
u
la

te
d

s
a
li
v
a

a
n
d

p
la

q
u
e

in
fo

u
r

p
ro

x
im

a
l
s
u
rf

a
c
e
s
:
5
4
-d

,
5
5

-m
,
7
4
-d

,
7
5
-m

)

E
X

:
V

is
u
a
l
in

s
p
e
c
ti
o
n

1
.5

-

5

1
4
7
/1

2

9

S
e
k
i
e
t
a
l.2

6
,

2
0
0
3

(T
o
k
y
o
),

J
a
p
a
n

C
h
il
d
re

n
w

it
h

E
C

C
h
a
d

th
e

h
ig

h
e
s
t

n
u
m

b
e
r

o
f

n
e
w

a
ff
e
c
te

d
s
u
rf

a
c
e
s

p
e
r

y
e
a
r,

fo
ll
o
w

e
d

b
y

th
e

c
h
il
d
re

n

w
it
h

p
o
s
te

ri
o
r

c
a
ri
e
s

a
n
d

th
e

c
a
ri
e
s-

fr
e
e

c
h
il
d
re

n
.

E
C

C
g
ro

u
p
s

d
if
fe

re
d

s
ta

ti
s
ti
c
a
ll
y

fr
o
m

c
a
ri
e
s-

fr
e
e

g
ro

u
p

a
n
d

p
o
s
te

ri
o
r

c
a
ri
e
s

g
ro

u
p

N
e
w

a
ff
e

c
te

d
s
u
rf

a
c
e
s

p
e
r

y
e
a
r

A
N

O
V

A
,

S
c
h

7
-

1
0

V
B

:
C

a
ri
e
s
:
3

g
ro

u
p
s

w
it
h

5
0

c
h
il
d
re

n
e
a
c
h

b
e
in

g
c
a
ri
e
s

fr
e
e

c
h
il
dr

e
n

(C
F

),
c
h
il
d
re

n
w

it
h

e
a
rl
y

c
h
il
d
h
o
o
d

c
a
ri
e
s

(E
C

C
),

a
n
d

c
h
il
d
re

n
w

it
h

p
o
s
te

ri
o
r

c
a
ri
e
s
o
n
ly

(P
C

)

E
X

:
F

il
e
s

o
f
tw

o
p
ri
v
a
te

p
e
d
ia

tr
ic

d
e
n
ta

l
c
li
n
ic

s
,
ra

d
io

g
ra

p
h
ic

e
xa

m
in

a
ti
o
n
s

3
-5

1
5
0

P
e
re

tz
e
t
a
l.

2
5
,

2
0
0
3
,

(J
e
ru

s
a
le

m
a
n
d

P
e
ta

h
T

ik
v
a
),

Is
ra

e
l

R
P

:
c
a
ri
e
s

in
p
ri
m

a
ry

te
e
th

(c
a
ri
e
s

o
n

p
ri
m

a
ry

m
o
la

rs
:

h
ig

h
e
s
t

p
re

d
ic

ti
v
e

v
a
lu

e
-

8
5
.4

%
)

D
e
v
e
lo

p
in

g
c
a
ri
e
s

in
p
e
rm

a
n
e
n
t

d
e
n
ti
ti
o
n

M
L
R

,
C

A
,

P
V

8
V

B
:
C

a
ri
e
s

(d
m

f/
D

M
F
-

W
H

O
c
ri
te

ri
a
)

o
n

e
n
ti
re

d
e
n
ti
ti
o
n

a
n
d

o
n

s
u
b
s
e
ts

o
f
te

e
th

:
m

a
x
ill
a
ry

in
c
is

o
rs

,
m

a
x
il
la

ry
a
n
te

ri
o
r

te
e
th

,
m

a
x
il
la

ry
fi
rs

t
a
n
d

s
e
c
o
n
d

m
o
la

rs
,
m

a
n
d
ib

u
la

r
fi
rs

t
a
n
d

s
e
c
o
n
d

m
o
la

rs
,
a
ll

p
ri
m

a
ry

m
o
la

rs

E
X

:
C

la
s
s
ro

o
m

s
e
tt
in

g
,
n
a
tu

ra
l
li
g
h
t,

m
o
u
th

m
ir
ro

rs
,
e
x
p
lo

re
rs

3
-

5
5
0
4
/3

6

2

L
i
a
n
d

W
a
n
g

2
4
,

2
0
0
2

(B
e
ij
in

g
),

C
h
in

a

R
P

:
p
re

v
io

u
s

c
a
ri
e
s

e
x
p
e
ri
e
n
c
e

(m
o
s
t

im
p
o
rt

a
n
t

fa
c
to

r)
,

fl
u
o
ri
d
e

u
s
a
g
e
;

R
F

:
n
o
t

a
tt

e
n
d
in

g
n
u
rs

e
ri
e
s

w
it
h

g
u
id

e
li
n
e
s

fo
r

s
u
g
a
r

in
ta

k
e
,

fr
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

a
n
d

a
m

o
u
n
t

o
f

s
u
g
a
r

in
ta

k
e
,

to
o
th

b
ru

s
h
in

g
re

la
te

d
h
a
b
it
s

C
a
ri
e
s

in
c
re

m
e
n
t

M
L
R

1
V

B
:
C

a
ri
e
s

(W
H

O
c
ri
te

ri
a
),

e
n
a
m

e
l
h
y
p
o
p
la

s
ia

(D
D

E
in

d
e
x
–

D
e
v
e
lo

p
m

e
n
ta

l
D

e
fe

c
ts

o
f

E
n
a
m

e
l)
,
n
u
tr

it
io

n
a
l
s
ta

tu
s
,
s
u
g
a
r

in
ta

k
e

d
u
ri
n
g

3
n
o
n-

c
o
n
s
e
c
u
ti
v
e

d
a
y
s
,
d
a
il
y

fr
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

o
f

s
u
g
a
r

in
ta

k
e
,
2
4
-h

p
e
ri
o
d

d
ie

ta
ry

re
c
a
ll

a
t
h
o
m

e
,
q
u
e
s
ti
o
n
n
a
ir
e

(s
o
c
io

e
c
o
n
o
m

ic
,
m
e
d
ic

a
l,

d
e
m

o
g
ra

p
h
ic

,
d
ie

ta
ry

h
is

to
ry

a
n
d

d
e
n
ta

l-r
e
la

te
d

in
fo

rm
a
ti
o
n
)

E
X

:
C

la
s
s
ro

o
m

,
h
e
a
d

la
m

p
,
m

o
u
th

m
ir
ro

r,
p
ro

b
e
s

3
6
5
0
/5

1

0

R
o
d
ri
g
u
e
s

a
n
d

S
h
e
ih

a
m

2
3
,

2
0
0
0

(R
e
c
if
e
),

B
ra

z
il

H
ig

h
c
a
ri
e
s

ri
s
k

c
h
il
d
re

n
a
t

b
a
s
e
li
n
e

(>
5
0

c
o
lo

n
y

fo
rm

in
g

u
n
it
s
):

s
ig

n
if
ic

a
n
tl
y

g
re

a
te

r
c
a
ri
e
s

s
c
o
re

s
a
t

fi
n
a
l
e
x
a
m

in
a
ti
o
n

D
if
fe

re
n
c
e
s

in

c
a
ri
e
s

s
c
o
re

s

K
W

,
M

W
6

V
B

:
C

a
ri
e
s

(R
a
d
ik

e
m

e
th

o
d
),

m
u
ta

n
s

s
tr

e
p
to

c
o
c
c
i
c
o
u
n
ts

in
s
a
li
v
a

E
X

:
P

o
rt

a
b
le

d
e
n
ta

l
c
h
a
ir
,
m

ir
ro

r,
#
2
3

e
x
p
lo

re
r

fo
c
u
s
a
b
le

fl
a
s
h
li
gh

ts

3
.8

(m
e

a
n
)

8
5
/8

3
T

h
ib

o
d
e
a
u

a
n
d

O
’S

u
ll
iv

a
n

2
2
,

1
9
9
9

(H
a
rt

fo
rd

),
U

S
A

R
P

:
p
a
c
if
ie

r-
s
u
c
k
in

g
�

2
y
e
a
rs

;
R

F
:

u
s
e

o
f

n
u
rs

in
g

b
o
tt

le
a
t

n
ig

h
t

O
c
c
u
rr

e
n

c
e

o
f

c
a
ri
e
s

(y
e
s
/n

o
)

C
S

,
M

L
R

2
V

B
:
C

a
ri
e
s

(i
n
it
ia

l
+

m
a
n
if
e
s
t
c
a
ri
e
s
),

s
a
li
v
a
ry

la
c
to

b
a
c
il
li

a
n
d
c
a
n
d
id

a
,
q
u
e
s
ti
o
n
n
a
ir
e

(p
a
c
if
ie

r-
a
n
d

th
u
m

b
-s

u
c
k
in

g
,
b
re

a
s
tf
e
e
d
in

g
,
b
o
tt
le

-f
e
e
d
in

g
a
t
n
ig

h
t,

s
o
c
ia

l
c
la

s
s

o
f
th

e

fa
m

il
y
)

E
X

:
A

t
d
e
n
ta

l
h
e
a
lt
h

c
e
n
te

rs

2
.5

(m
e

a
n
)

1
6
6
/1

5

2

O
ll
il
a

e
t
a
l.

2
1
,

1
9
9
8

(O
u
lu

),

F
in

la
n
d

R
P

:
M

o
th

e
rs

’e
d
u
c
a
ti
o
n

(u
p

to
n
in

e
y
e
a
rs

o
f

b
a
s
ic

e
d
u
c
a
ti
o
n
),

p
re

s
e
n
c
e

o
f

c
a
ri
e
s
;

R
F

:
p
re

s
e
n
c
e

o
f

p
la

q
u
e

C
h
a
n
g
e
s

in
d
m

f

in
d
e
x

C
S

,
M

W
,

K
W

,
W

,

M
L
R

2
V

B
:
C

a
ri
e
s

(e
n
a
m

e
l
le

s
io

n
s

+
d
m

f
in

d
e
x
),

d
e
n
ta

l
c
le

a
n
li
n
e
s
s

(n
o

d
is
c
lo

s
in

g
s
o
lu

ti
o
n
),

q
u
e
s
ti
o
n
n
a
ir
e

(b
a
s
ic

e
d
u
c
a
ti
o
n
a
l
le

v
e
l,

o
c
c
u
p
a
ti
o
n
a
l
e
d
u
c
a
ti
o
n
,o

c
c
u
p
a
ti
o
n
,
to

o
th

b
ru

s
h
in

g

b
e
h
a
v
io

rs
,
u
s
e

o
f
x
y
li
to

l
c
h
e
w

in
g

g
u
m

,
s
n
a
c
k
in

g
o
n

s
w

e
e
ts

a
n
d

fre
q
u
e
n
c
y

o
f
s
n
a
c
k
in

g
,

d
ri
n
k
in

g
s
o
m

e
th

in
g

o
th

e
r

th
a
n

p
u
re

w
a
te

r)

E
X

:
P

u
b
li
c

d
e
n
ta

l
c
e
n
te

rs

3
1

2
9

2
/1

0
0

3
M

a
tt
il
a

e
t
a
l.2

0
,

1
9
9
8

(T
u
rk

u
),

F
in

la
n
d

M
a
in

re
s
u

lt
s

R
P

/R
F

§
O

u
tc

o
m

e
V

a
ri

a
b

le

D
a
ta

A
n

a
ly

s
is

¶

T
im e
‡

V
a
ri

a
b

le
s

c
o

ll
e
c
te

d
a
t

b
a
s
e
li
n

e
(V

B
)

E
x
a
m

in
a
ti

o
n

(E
X

)

A
g

e
†

S
a
m

p
l

e
*

A
u

th
o

r,
y
e
a
r

a
n

d
lo

c
a
l



M
e
a
n
 D

M
F

S
 i
n
c
re

m
e
n
t:
 1

.1
4

R
P

: 
p
la

q
u
e
 C

a
 c

o
n
c
e
n
tr

a
ti
o
n
, 
b
a
s
e
li
n
e
 D

M
F

S
 s

c
o
re

 (
u
s
e
fu

l

p
re

d
ic

to
r)

; 
R

F
:

to
o
th

b
ru

s
h
in

g
fr

e
q
u
e
n
c
y

D
M

F
S

 i
n
c
re

m
e
n
t

�
3

M
W

, 
W

,

M
L
R

2
V

B
: 
C

a
ri
e
s
 (

c
a
v
it
a
ti
o
n

le
v
e
l)
, 
p
la

q
u
e
 s

c
o
re

 (
Q

u
ig

le
y
 a

n
d
 H

e
in

 i
n
d
e
x
),

fl
u
o
ro

s
is

s
c
o
re

 (
T

F
 i
n
d
e
x
),

 i
n
o
rg

a
n
ic

c
o
m

p
o
u
n
d
s
 i
n
 d

e
n
ta

l 
p
la

q
u
e
 (

s
u
p
ra

g
in

g
iv

a
l

p
la

q
u
e
 c

o
ll
e
c
ti
o
n
 f
ro

m
b
u
c
c
a
l

a
n
d
 l
in

g
u
a
l 
s
u
rf

a
c
e
s
 a

ft
e
r 

3

d
a
y
s
 w

it
h
 n

o
 o

ra
l 
h
y
g
ie

n
e
),

to
o
th

b
ru

s
h
in

g
fr

e
q
u
e
n
c
y
, 
s
n
a
c
k
s
 u

s
e
, 
p
a
re

n
ts

‘
o
c
c
u
p
a
ti
o
n

E
X

: 
C

h
il
d
 s

e
a
te

d
 i
n
 a

n
 u

p
ri
g
h
t 
c
h
a
ir
, 
a
d
e
q
u
a
te

 i
ll
u
m

in
a
ti
o
n
, 
s
h
a
rp

p
ro

b
e

1
2

1
7
5
/1

6
4

P
e
a
rc

e
 e

t 
a
l.

3
7
,

2
0
0
2
 (

B
e
ij
in

g
),

C
h
in

a

N
o
 s

ta
ti
s
ti
c
a
ll
y
 s

ig
n
if
ic

a
n
t 
p
re

d
ic

to
r 

(p
>

0
.0

5
)

C
a
ri
e
s
 i
n
c
re

m
e
n
t

C
A

, 
M

L
R

4
V

B
: 
C

a
ri
e
s
 (

in
c
ip

ie
n
t 
+

c
a
v
it
a
te

d
le

s
io

n
s
 +

 f
il
li
n
g
s
),

m
u
ta

n
s

s
tr

e
p
to

c
o
c
c
i

-
M

S
 a

n
d
 l
a
c
to

b
a
c
il
li
 (

L
B

) 
c
o
u
n
ts

(s
ti
m

u
la

te
d
 s

a
li
v
a
)

E
X

: 
V

is
u
a
l 
o
b
s
e
rv

a
ti
o
n
, 
d
ri
e
d
 s

u
rf

a
c
e
s
, 
d
e
n
ta

l 
la

m
p
, 
s
m

a
ll
 m

o
u
th

-l
ig

h
t,
 r

a
d
io

g
ra

p
h
s

7
.5

6
9
/6

2
v
a
n

P
a
le

n
s
te

in

H
e
ld

e
rm

a
n

e
t

a
l.

3
6
, 
2
0
0
1

(C
u
le

m
b
o
rg

),
T

h
e

N
e
th

e
rl
a
n
d
s

R
P

: 
n
u
m

b
e
r 

o
f

c
a
v
it
a
te

d
a
n
d
 n

o
n

-c
a
v
it
a
te

d
fi
s
s
u
re

s
 o

f 
th

e

n
e
w

ly
 e

ru
p
te

d
 p

e
rm

a
n
e
n
t 
fi
rs

t 
m

o
la

r

H
ig

h
 c

a
ri
e
s
 i
n
c
re

m
e
n
t

(�
D

3
 s

u
rf

a
c
e
s
 >

0
; 
>

2
;

>
4
, 
>

7
)

C
A

,

M
L
R

,

R
O

C

8
V

B
: 
C

a
ri
e
s
 (

n
o
n

c
a
v
it
a
te

d
a
n
d

c
a
v
it
a
te

d
c
a
ri
e
s
, 
fi
ll
in

g
) 

a
n
d
 s

e
a
la

n
ts

E
X

: 
V

is
u
a
l 
e
x
a
m

in
a
ti
o
n
, 
d
e
n
ta

l 
p
ro

b
e
, 
d
e
n
ta

l 
la

m
p
 a

n
d
 s

m
a
ll
 m

o
u
th

-l
ig

h
t,
 b

it
e
w

in
g
 r

a
d
io

g
ra

p
h
s

7
.5

3
1
8
/2

8
7

v
a
n

P
a
le

n
s
te

in

H
e
ld

e
rm

a
n

e
t

a
l.

3
5
, 
2
0
0
1
 (

T
ie

l,

C
u
le

m
b
o
rg

)
T

h
e

N
e
th

e
rl
a
n
d
s

R
P

:
d
m

fs
, 
e
d
u
c
a
ti
o
n
a
l 
s
y
s
te

m
; 
R

F
: 
fr

e
q
u
e
n
c
y
 o

f 
b
ru

s
h
in

g
,

d
a
il
y
 u

s
e
 o

f 
s
u
g
a
r

-c
o
n
ta

in
in

g
 d

ri
n
k
s

D
M

F
S

 i
n
c
re

m
e
n
t

�
2
 o

n

p
e
rm

a
n
e
n
t 
1
s
t 
m

o
la

rs

M
L
R

,
S

n
,

S
p
,

R
O

C
, 
C

S

3
V

B
: 
C

a
ri
e
s
 (

B
A

S
C

D
 c

ri
te

ri
a

–
c
a
v
it
a
ti
o
n

le
v
e
l)
, 
o
ra

l 
h
y
g
ie

n
e
 (

S
il
n
e
s
s

a
n
d

L
ö

e
’s

p
la

q
u
e
 i
n
d
e
x
 a

n
d
 p

la
q
u
e

in
d
e
x
 o

n
o
c
c
lu

s
a
l

s
u
rf

a
c
e
s

–
C

a
rv

a
lh

o
’s

in
d
e
x
),

 e
ru

p
ti
o
n
 s

ta
g
e
, 
q
u
e
s
ti
o
n
n
a
ir
e
 (

o
ra

l 
h
y
g
ie

n
e
, 
d
ie

ta
ry

h
a
b
it
s
, 
fl
u
o
ri
d
e
 e

x
p
o
s
u
re

, 
a
c
c
e
s
s
 t
o
 o

ra
l 
h
e
a
lt
h
 c

a
re

 s
e
rv

ic
e
s
,

m
e
d
ic

a
l 
h
is

to
ry

, 
s
o
c
io

e
c
o
n
o
m

ic
 l
e
v
e
l)

E
X

: 
M

o
b
il
e
 d

e
n
ta

l 
c
li
n
ic

, 
W

H
O

/C
P

IT
N

 p
ro

b
e

7
3
3
0
3
/3

0

0
2

V
a
n
o
b
b
e
rg

e
n

e
t

a
l.

3
4
, 
2
0
0
1

(F
la

n
d
e
rs

),

B
e
lg

iu
m

M
e
a
n
 c

a
ri
e
s
 i
n
c
re

m
e
n
t:
 0

.4
5

d
m

ft
/D

M
F

T

R
P

: 
m

o
th

e
r

’s
 p

re
v
io

u
s
 c

a
ri
e
s
 (

d
e
c
id

u
o
u
s
 t
e
e
th

);
 R

F
:

to
o
th

b
ru

s
h
in

g
o
n
ly

 o
c
c
a
s
io

n
a
ll
y
, 
c
h
il
d
 f
re

q
u
e
n
t 
u
s
e
 o

f

s
w

e
e
ts

 a
n
d
 c

h
il
d

’s
 b

e
d
ti
m

e
 a

ft
e
r 

9
 p

. 
m

. 
(p

e
rm

a
n
e
n
t 
te

e
th

),

e
a
t 
s
w

e
e
ts

 f
re

q
u
e
n
tl
y
 a

t 
3
 y

e
a
rs

 o
f 
a
g
e
 (

b
o
th

 d
e
n
ti
ti
o
n
s
)

C
a
ri
e
s
 i
n
c
re

m
e
n
t

C
S

, 
M

L
R

3
V

B
: 
C

a
ri
e
s
 (

D
M

F
T

/
d
m

ft
),

 q
u
e
s
ti
o
n
n
a
ir
e
 (

s
o
c
io

e
c
o
n
o
m

ic
, 
d
e
m

o
g
ra

p
h
ic

, 
fa

m
il
y
 f
a
c
to

rs
, 
d
i

e
t,
 d

e
n
ta

l 
h
y
g
ie

n
e
,

p
a
re

n
ts

’
o
w

n
 e

a
rl
ie

r 
d
e
n
ta

l 
h
e
a
lt
h
 h

a
b
it
s
, 
p
a
re

n
ts

´
p
re

v
io

u
s
 d

e
n
ta

l 
h
e
a
lt
h
, 
c
h
il
d
re

n
’s

 d
is

e
a
s
e
s
 a

n
d
 p

h
y
s
ic

a
l

s
y
m

p
to

m
s
)

E
X

: 
M

ir
ro

r,
 p

ro
b
e
, 
fi
b
e
r

-o
p
ti
c
 l
ig

h
t

7
1
0
7
4

M
a
tt
il
a

e
t 
a
l.

3
3
,

2
0
0
1
 (

T
u
rk

u
),

F
in

la
n
d

R
P

: 
p
re

s
e
n
c
e
 o

f 
d
e
c
a
y
e
d
 t
e
e
th

 a
n
d
 d

e
c
a
lc

if
ic

a
ti
o
n
s
 (

m
o
s
t

s
ig

n
if
ic

a
n
t)

; 
R

F
: 
d
ie

ta
ry

 f
a
c
to

rs
, 
p
o
o
r 

o
ra

l 
h
y
g
ie

n
e

C
u
m

u
la

ti
v
e
 f
u
tu

re
 c

a
ri
e
s

le
s
io

n
s
 (

h
ig

h
 r

is
k
:

�
5

n
e
w

 s
u
rf

a
c
e
 l
e
s
io

n
s
)

C
S

,

M
L
R

,

A
N

O
V

A

2
.5

V
B

: 
C

h
a
rt

s
 o

f 
p
a
ti
e
n
ts

 c
o
n
ta

in
in

g
: 
m

e
d
ic

a
l,
 d

e
n
ta

l 
a
n
d
 f
lu

o
ri
d
e
 h

i
s
to

ry
, 
d
ie

t,
 o

ra
l 
h
y
g
ie

n
e
, 
re

te
n
ti
v
e
 p

it
s

a
n
d
 f
is

s
u
re

s
, 
e
x
is

ti
n
g
 r

e
s
to

ra
ti
o
n
s
, 
n
e
w

ly
 e

ru
p
te

d
 t
e
e
th

, 
c
a
ri
e
s

/d
e
c
a
lc

if
ic

a
ti
o
n
s
, 
p
u
lp

it
s
/a

b
s
c
e
s
s
, 
g
in

g
iv

it
is

,

c
ro

w
d
in

g
, 
b
e
h
a
v
io

r,
 a

g
e
, 
g
e
n
d
e
r

E
X

: 
V

a
ri
a
b
le

s
 c

o
ll
e
c
te

d
 a

t 
p
a
ti
e
n
t

’s
 c

h
a
rt

s
 (

re
tr

o
s
p
e
c
ti
v
e
 l
o
n
g
it
u
d
in

a
l 
s
tu

d
y
)

0
.9

-1
1

1
4
0

W
a
n
d
e
ra

e
t 
a
l.

3
2
,

2
0
0
0
 (

M
ic

h
ig

a
n
),

U
S

A

R
P

: 
E

p
in

e
p
h
ri
n
e
 l
e
v
e
ls

C
a
ri
e
s
 i
n
c
re

m
e
n
t

S
t,

L
iR

A
,

M
L
R

1
V

B
: 
C

a
ri
e
s
 (

D
M

F
/

d
m

f)
, 
d
e
n
ta

l 
p
la

q
u
e
, 
c
a
te

c
h
o
la

m
in

e
 c

o
n
te

n
t 
in

 u
ri
n
e
 s

a
m

p
le

, 
b
o
d
y
 w

e
ig

h
t,
 p

a
re

n
ta

l 
a
g
e
,

e
d
u
c
a
ti
o
n
 a

n
d
 p

ro
fe

s
s
io

n
, 
m

e
d
ic

a
l 
h
is

to
ry

 a
n
d
 m

e
d
ic

a
ti
o
n
s

E
X

: 
B

it
e
w

in
g
 r

a
d
io

g
ra

p
h
s

6
-8

3
1
4
/2

7
0

V
a
n
d
e
ra

s
e
t 
a
l.

3
1
,

2
0
0
0
, 
G

re
e
c
e

M
e
a
n
 c

a
ri
e
s
 i
n
c
re

m
e
n
t:
 0

.6
8
 t
e
e
th

T
h
e
 m

o
re

 o
ft
e
n
 t
h
e
 M

S
 t
e
s
t 
p
o
s
it
iv

e
, 
th

e
 h

ig
h
e
r 

th
e

p
ro

p
o
rt

io
n
 o

f 
c
h
il
d
re

n
 w

h
o
 d

e
v
e
lo

p
e
d
 c

a
ri
e
s
 l
e
s
io

n

R
P

: 
fl
u
o
ri
d
e
; 
R

F
: 
M

S

D
M

F
T

in
c
re

m
e
n
t

�
1

C
S

,
S

n
,

S
p
, 
P

V
,

M
L
R

, 
C

A

2
V

B
: 
C

a
ri
e
s
 (

W
H

O
 c

ri
te

ri
a
),

 p
la

q
u
e
 i
n
d
e
x
 (

S
il
n
e
s
s

a
n
d

L
ö

e
),

 m
ic

ro
b
io

lo
g
ic

a
l 
a
n
a
ly

s
is

 o
f

m
u
ta

n
s

s
tr

e
p
to

c
o
c
c
i

-
M

S
, 
(n

o
n

-s
ti
m

u
la

te
d
 s

a
li
v
a
 s

a
m

p
le

s
),

 q
u
e
s
ti
o
n
n
a
ir
e
 (

s
u
c
ro

s
e
 i
n
ta

k
e
, 
fl
u
o
r

id
e
 e

x
p
o
s
u
re

)

E
X

: 
C

li
n
ic

a
l 
e
x
a
m

in
a
ti
o
n
, 
v
is

u
a
l 
in

s
p
e
c
ti
o
n
, 
b
it
e
w

in
g
 r

a
d
io

g
ra

p
h
s

6
-7

3
1
4
/3

0
4

(C
a
ri
e
s

-

fr
e
e
)

P
e
tt
i

a
n
d

H
a
u
s
e
n

1
5
, 
2
0
0
0

(R
o
m

e
),

 I
ta

ly

M
e
a
n
 c

a
ri
e
s
 i
n
c
id

e
n
c
e
: 
0
.6

9
 D

M
F

S

S
ig

n
if
ic

a
n
t 
c
o
rr

e
la

ti
o
n
 b

e
tw

e
e
n
 i
n
it
ia

l 
M

S
 s

c
o
re

s
 a

n
d
 c

a
ri
e
s

d
e
v
e
lo

p
m

e
n
t

C
a
ri
e
s
 d

e
v
e
lo

p
m

e
n
t

C
A

, 
K

W
,

M
W

,
S

n
,

S
p

2
V

B
: 
C

a
ri
e
s
 (

D
M

F
S

/
d
m

fs
–

W
H

O
 c

ri
te

ri
a
, 
in

it
ia

l 
le

s
io

n
s
),

 s
e
a
la

n
ts

 f
o
r 

a
ll
 m

o
la

r 
fi
s
s
u
re

s
,

o
c
c
lu

s
a
l

p
la

q
u
e

s
a
m

p
le

s
 f
ro

m
 t
e
e
th

 1
6
 a

n
d
 3

6
 (

m
u
ta

n
s

s
tr

e
p
to

c
o
c
c
i 
te

s
ts

),
 p

la
q
u
e
 i
n
d
e
x
 (

Q
u
ig

le
y

-H
e
in

)

E
X

: 
E

x
p
lo

re
r 

w
it
h
o
u
t 
p
re

s
s
u
re

, 
li
g
h
t 
s
o
u
rc

e

6
-7

2
3
0
/1

6
9

S
p
li
e
th

a
n
d

B
e
rn

h
a
rd

t
3

0
,

1
9
9
9
, 
G

e
rm

a
n
y

M
e
a
n
 c

a
ri
e
s
 i
n
c
re

m
e
n
t:
 0

.9
5
 D

M
F

S

C
a
ri
e
s
 i
n
c
re

m
e
n
t:
 n

e
g
a
ti
v
e
 c

o
rr

e
la

ti
o
n
s
 w

it
h
 b

a
s
e
li
n
e

la
c
to

fe
rr

in
, 
to

ta
l

Ig
G

a
n
d
 t
o
ta

l 
a
n
a
e
ro

b
e
s
; 
p
o
s
it
iv

e
 c

o
rr

e
la

ti
o
n

w
it
h
 s

p
e
c
if
ic

 a
n
ti

-S
.

m
u
ta

n
s

,
Ig

G
a
n
ti
b
o
d
y
 l
e
v
e
ls

,
m

u
ta

n
s

s
tr

e
p
to

c
o
c
c
i,
 l
a
c
to

b
a
c
il
li
 a

n
d
 s

p
e
c
if
ic

 a
n
ti

-S
.

m
u
ta

n
s

Ig
G

.

C
h
il
d
re

n
 w

it
h
 s

ig
n
if
ic

a
n
tl
y
 h

ig
h
e
r 

b
a
s
e
li
n
e
 c

o
n
c
e
n
tr

a
ti
o
n
s
 o

f

h
y
p
o
th

io
c
y
a
n
it
e

, 
to

ta
l

Ig
G

a
n
ti
b
o
d
ie

s
 a

n
d
 t
o
ta

l 
a
n
a
e
ro

b
e
s
:

n
o
 n

e
w

 c
a
ri
e
s
 l
e
s
io

n
s

D
M

F
 i
n
c
re

m
e
n
t 
>

0
S

t,
 C

A
2

V
B

: 
C

a
ri
e
s
 (

D
M

F
/

d
m

f
-

W
H

O
 c

ri
te

ri
a
, 
w

h
it
e
 s

p
o
ts

 l
e
s
io

n
s
),

 p
e
ri
o
d
o
n
ta

l 
s
ta

tu
s
 (

b
le

e
d
in

g
 a

n
d
 c

a
lc

u
lu

s
),

u
s
a
g
e
 o

f 
fl
u
o
ri
d
a
te

d
 d

e
n
ti
fr

ic
e
s
, 
s
a
li
v
a
 s

a
m

p
le

s
 (

b
u
ff
e
r 

c
a
p
a
c
it

y
,

h
y
p
o
th

io
c
y
a
n
it
e

a
s
s
a
y
, 
to

ta
l 
s
tr

e
p
to

c
o
c
c
i

a
n
d

m
u
ta

n
s

s
tr

e
p
to

c
o
c
c
i,

la
c
to

fe
rr

in
a
n
d

ly
s
o
z
y
m

e
a
n
a
ly

s
is

, 
a
g
g
lu

ti
n
a
ti
o
n
 a

s
s
a
y
, 
to

ta
l 
s
a
li
v
a
ry

p
e
ro

x
id

a
s
e

a
c
ti
v
it
y
, 
to

ta
l 
a
n
d
 s

p
e
c
if
ic

Ig
A

a
n
d

Ig
G

a
n
ti
b
o
d
ie

s
)

E
X

: 
V

is
u
a
l
-t

a
c
ti
le

 m
e
th

o
d
 +

 F
O

T
I

1
2

6
9
/6

3
K

ir
s
ti
lä

e
t 
a
l.

2
9
,

1
9
9
8
 (

T
u
rk

u
),

F
in

la
n
d

M
a
in

 r
e
s
u
lt
s

R
P

/R
F

§
O

u
tc

o
m

e
 V

a
ri
a
b
le

D
a
ta

A
n
a
ly

s
is

¶

T
im

e
‡

V
a
ri
a
b
le

s
 c

o
ll
e
c
te

d
 a

t 
b
a
s
e
li
n
e
 (

V
B

)

E
x
a
m

in
a
ti
o
n
 (

E
X

)

A
g

e
†

S
a
m

p
le

*
A

u
th

o
r

, 
y
e
a
r 

a
n
d

lo
c
a
l

M
e
a
n
 D

M
F

S
 i
n
c
re

m
e
n
t:
 1

.1
4

R
P

: 
p
la

q
u
e
 C

a
 c

o
n
c
e
n
tr

a
ti
o
n
, 
b
a
s
e
li
n
e
 D

M
F

S
 s

c
o
re

 (
u
s
e
fu

l

p
re

d
ic

to
r)

; 
R

F
:

to
o
th

b
ru

s
h
in

g
fr

e
q
u
e
n
c
y

D
M

F
S

 i
n
c
re

m
e
n
t

�
3

M
W

, 
W

,

M
L
R

2
V

B
: 
C

a
ri
e
s
 (

c
a
v
it
a
ti
o
n

le
v
e
l)
, 
p
la

q
u
e
 s

c
o
re

 (
Q

u
ig

le
y
 a

n
d
 H

e
in

 i
n
d
e
x
),

fl
u
o
ro

s
is

s
c
o
re

 (
T

F
 i
n
d
e
x
),

 i
n
o
rg

a
n
ic

c
o
m

p
o
u
n
d
s
 i
n
 d

e
n
ta

l 
p
la

q
u
e
 (

s
u
p
ra

g
in

g
iv

a
l

p
la

q
u
e
 c

o
ll
e
c
ti
o
n
 f
ro

m
b
u
c
c
a
l

a
n
d
 l
in

g
u
a
l 
s
u
rf

a
c
e
s
 a

ft
e
r 

3

d
a
y
s
 w

it
h
 n

o
 o

ra
l 
h
y
g
ie

n
e
),

to
o
th

b
ru

s
h
in

g
fr

e
q
u
e
n
c
y
, 
s
n
a
c
k
s
 u

s
e
, 
p
a
re

n
ts

‘
o
c
c
u
p
a
ti
o
n

E
X

: 
C

h
il
d
 s

e
a
te

d
 i
n
 a

n
 u

p
ri
g
h
t 
c
h
a
ir
, 
a
d
e
q
u
a
te

 i
ll
u
m

in
a
ti
o
n
, 
s
h
a
rp

p
ro

b
e

1
2

1
7
5
/1

6
4

P
e
a
rc

e
 e

t 
a
l.

3
7
,

2
0
0
2
 (

B
e
ij
in

g
),

C
h
in

a

N
o
 s

ta
ti
s
ti
c
a
ll
y
 s

ig
n
if
ic

a
n
t 
p
re

d
ic

to
r 

(p
>

0
.0

5
)

C
a
ri
e
s
 i
n
c
re

m
e
n
t

C
A

, 
M

L
R

4
V

B
: 
C

a
ri
e
s
 (

in
c
ip

ie
n
t 
+

c
a
v
it
a
te

d
le

s
io

n
s
 +

 f
il
li
n
g
s
),

m
u
ta

n
s

s
tr

e
p
to

c
o
c
c
i

-
M

S
 a

n
d
 l
a
c
to

b
a
c
il
li
 (

L
B

) 
c
o
u
n
ts

(s
ti
m

u
la

te
d
 s

a
li
v
a
)

E
X

: 
V

is
u
a
l 
o
b
s
e
rv

a
ti
o
n
, 
d
ri
e
d
 s

u
rf

a
c
e
s
, 
d
e
n
ta

l 
la

m
p
, 
s
m

a
ll
 m

o
u
th

-l
ig

h
t,
 r

a
d
io

g
ra

p
h
s

7
.5

6
9
/6

2
v
a
n

P
a
le

n
s
te

in

H
e
ld

e
rm

a
n

e
t

a
l.

3
6
, 
2
0
0
1

(C
u
le

m
b
o
rg

),
T

h
e

N
e
th

e
rl
a
n
d
s

R
P

: 
n
u
m

b
e
r 

o
f

c
a
v
it
a
te

d
a
n
d
 n

o
n

-c
a
v
it
a
te

d
fi
s
s
u
re

s
 o

f 
th

e

n
e
w

ly
 e

ru
p
te

d
 p

e
rm

a
n
e
n
t 
fi
rs

t 
m

o
la

r

H
ig

h
 c

a
ri
e
s
 i
n
c
re

m
e
n
t

(�
D

3
 s

u
rf

a
c
e
s
 >

0
; 
>

2
;

>
4
, 
>

7
)

C
A

,

M
L
R

,

R
O

C

8
V

B
: 
C

a
ri
e
s
 (

n
o
n

c
a
v
it
a
te

d
a
n
d

c
a
v
it
a
te

d
c
a
ri
e
s
, 
fi
ll
in

g
) 

a
n
d
 s

e
a
la

n
ts

E
X

: 
V

is
u
a
l 
e
x
a
m

in
a
ti
o
n
, 
d
e
n
ta

l 
p
ro

b
e
, 
d
e
n
ta

l 
la

m
p
 a

n
d
 s

m
a
ll
 m

o
u
th

-l
ig

h
t,
 b

it
e
w

in
g
 r

a
d
io

g
ra

p
h
s

7
.5

3
1
8
/2

8
7

v
a
n

P
a
le

n
s
te

in

H
e
ld

e
rm

a
n

e
t

a
l.

3
5
, 
2
0
0
1
 (

T
ie

l,

C
u
le

m
b
o
rg

)
T

h
e

N
e
th

e
rl
a
n
d
s

R
P

:
d
m

fs
, 
e
d
u
c
a
ti
o
n
a
l 
s
y
s
te

m
; 
R

F
: 
fr

e
q
u
e
n
c
y
 o

f 
b
ru

s
h
in

g
,

d
a
il
y
 u

s
e
 o

f 
s
u
g
a
r

-c
o
n
ta

in
in

g
 d

ri
n
k
s

D
M

F
S

 i
n
c
re

m
e
n
t

�
2
 o

n

p
e
rm

a
n
e
n
t 
1
s
t 
m

o
la

rs

M
L
R

,
S

n
,

S
p
,

R
O

C
, 
C

S

3
V

B
: 
C

a
ri
e
s
 (

B
A

S
C

D
 c

ri
te

ri
a

–
c
a
v
it
a
ti
o
n

le
v
e
l)
, 
o
ra

l 
h
y
g
ie

n
e
 (

S
il
n
e
s
s

a
n
d

L
ö

e
’s

p
la

q
u
e
 i
n
d
e
x
 a

n
d
 p

la
q
u
e

in
d
e
x
 o

n
o
c
c
lu

s
a
l

s
u
rf

a
c
e
s

–
C

a
rv

a
lh

o
’s

in
d
e
x
),

 e
ru

p
ti
o
n
 s

ta
g
e
, 
q
u
e
s
ti
o
n
n
a
ir
e
 (

o
ra

l 
h
y
g
ie

n
e
, 
d
ie

ta
ry

h
a
b
it
s
, 
fl
u
o
ri
d
e
 e

x
p
o
s
u
re

, 
a
c
c
e
s
s
 t
o
 o

ra
l 
h
e
a
lt
h
 c

a
re

 s
e
rv

ic
e
s
,

m
e
d
ic

a
l 
h
is

to
ry

, 
s
o
c
io

e
c
o
n
o
m

ic
 l
e
v
e
l)

E
X

: 
M

o
b
il
e
 d

e
n
ta

l 
c
li
n
ic

, 
W

H
O

/C
P

IT
N

 p
ro

b
e

7
3
3
0
3
/3

0

0
2

V
a
n
o
b
b
e
rg

e
n

e
t

a
l.

3
4
, 
2
0
0
1

(F
la

n
d
e
rs

),

B
e
lg

iu
m

M
e
a
n
 c

a
ri
e
s
 i
n
c
re

m
e
n
t:
 0

.4
5

d
m

ft
/D

M
F

T

R
P

: 
m

o
th

e
r

’s
 p

re
v
io

u
s
 c

a
ri
e
s
 (

d
e
c
id

u
o
u
s
 t
e
e
th

);
 R

F
:

to
o
th

b
ru

s
h
in

g
o
n
ly

 o
c
c
a
s
io

n
a
ll
y
, 
c
h
il
d
 f
re

q
u
e
n
t 
u
s
e
 o

f

s
w

e
e
ts

 a
n
d
 c

h
il
d

’s
 b

e
d
ti
m

e
 a

ft
e
r 

9
 p

. 
m

. 
(p

e
rm

a
n
e
n
t 
te

e
th

),

e
a
t 
s
w

e
e
ts

 f
re

q
u
e
n
tl
y
 a

t 
3
 y

e
a
rs

 o
f 
a
g
e
 (

b
o
th

 d
e
n
ti
ti
o
n
s
)

C
a
ri
e
s
 i
n
c
re

m
e
n
t

C
S

, 
M

L
R

3
V

B
: 
C

a
ri
e
s
 (

D
M

F
T

/
d
m

ft
),

 q
u
e
s
ti
o
n
n
a
ir
e
 (

s
o
c
io

e
c
o
n
o
m

ic
, 
d
e
m

o
g
ra

p
h
ic

, 
fa

m
il
y
 f
a
c
to

rs
, 
d
i

e
t,
 d

e
n
ta

l 
h
y
g
ie

n
e
,

p
a
re

n
ts

’
o
w

n
 e

a
rl
ie

r 
d
e
n
ta

l 
h
e
a
lt
h
 h

a
b
it
s
, 
p
a
re

n
ts

´
p
re

v
io

u
s
 d

e
n
ta

l 
h
e
a
lt
h
, 
c
h
il
d
re

n
’s

 d
is

e
a
s
e
s
 a

n
d
 p

h
y
s
ic

a
l

s
y
m

p
to

m
s
)

E
X

: 
M

ir
ro

r,
 p

ro
b
e
, 
fi
b
e
r

-o
p
ti
c
 l
ig

h
t

7
1
0
7
4

M
a
tt
il
a

e
t 
a
l.

3
3
,

2
0
0
1
 (

T
u
rk

u
),

F
in

la
n
d

R
P

: 
p
re

s
e
n
c
e
 o

f 
d
e
c
a
y
e
d
 t
e
e
th

 a
n
d
 d

e
c
a
lc

if
ic

a
ti
o
n
s
 (

m
o
s
t

s
ig

n
if
ic

a
n
t)

; 
R

F
: 
d
ie

ta
ry

 f
a
c
to

rs
, 
p
o
o
r 

o
ra

l 
h
y
g
ie

n
e

C
u
m

u
la

ti
v
e
 f
u
tu

re
 c

a
ri
e
s

le
s
io

n
s
 (

h
ig

h
 r

is
k
:

�
5

n
e
w

 s
u
rf

a
c
e
 l
e
s
io

n
s
)

C
S

,

M
L
R

,

A
N

O
V

A

2
.5

V
B

: 
C

h
a
rt

s
 o

f 
p
a
ti
e
n
ts

 c
o
n
ta

in
in

g
: 
m

e
d
ic

a
l,
 d

e
n
ta

l 
a
n
d
 f
lu

o
ri
d
e
 h

i
s
to

ry
, 
d
ie

t,
 o

ra
l 
h
y
g
ie

n
e
, 
re

te
n
ti
v
e
 p

it
s

a
n
d
 f
is

s
u
re

s
, 
e
x
is

ti
n
g
 r

e
s
to

ra
ti
o
n
s
, 
n
e
w

ly
 e

ru
p
te

d
 t
e
e
th

, 
c
a
ri
e
s

/d
e
c
a
lc

if
ic

a
ti
o
n
s
, 
p
u
lp

it
s
/a

b
s
c
e
s
s
, 
g
in

g
iv

it
is

,

c
ro

w
d
in

g
, 
b
e
h
a
v
io

r,
 a

g
e
, 
g
e
n
d
e
r

E
X

: 
V

a
ri
a
b
le

s
 c

o
ll
e
c
te

d
 a

t 
p
a
ti
e
n
t

’s
 c

h
a
rt

s
 (

re
tr

o
s
p
e
c
ti
v
e
 l
o
n
g
it
u
d
in

a
l 
s
tu

d
y
)

0
.9

-1
1

1
4
0

W
a
n
d
e
ra

e
t 
a
l.

3
2
,

2
0
0
0
 (

M
ic

h
ig

a
n
),

U
S

A

R
P

: 
E

p
in

e
p
h
ri
n
e
 l
e
v
e
ls

C
a
ri
e
s
 i
n
c
re

m
e
n
t

S
t,

L
iR

A
,

M
L
R

1
V

B
: 
C

a
ri
e
s
 (

D
M

F
/

d
m

f)
, 
d
e
n
ta

l 
p
la

q
u
e
, 
c
a
te

c
h
o
la

m
in

e
 c

o
n
te

n
t 
in

 u
ri
n
e
 s

a
m

p
le

, 
b
o
d
y
 w

e
ig

h
t,
 p

a
re

n
ta

l 
a
g
e
,

e
d
u
c
a
ti
o
n
 a

n
d
 p

ro
fe

s
s
io

n
, 
m

e
d
ic

a
l 
h
is

to
ry

 a
n
d
 m

e
d
ic

a
ti
o
n
s

E
X

: 
B

it
e
w

in
g
 r

a
d
io

g
ra

p
h
s

6
-8

3
1
4
/2

7
0

V
a
n
d
e
ra

s
e
t 
a
l.

3
1
,

2
0
0
0
, 
G

re
e
c
e

M
e
a
n
 c

a
ri
e
s
 i
n
c
re

m
e
n
t:
 0

.6
8
 t
e
e
th

T
h
e
 m

o
re

 o
ft
e
n
 t
h
e
 M

S
 t
e
s
t 
p
o
s
it
iv

e
, 
th

e
 h

ig
h
e
r 

th
e

p
ro

p
o
rt

io
n
 o

f 
c
h
il
d
re

n
 w

h
o
 d

e
v
e
lo

p
e
d
 c

a
ri
e
s
 l
e
s
io

n

R
P

: 
fl
u
o
ri
d
e
; 
R

F
: 
M

S

D
M

F
T

in
c
re

m
e
n
t

�
1

C
S

,
S

n
,

S
p
, 
P

V
,

M
L
R

, 
C

A

2
V

B
: 
C

a
ri
e
s
 (

W
H

O
 c

ri
te

ri
a
),

 p
la

q
u
e
 i
n
d
e
x
 (

S
il
n
e
s
s

a
n
d

L
ö

e
),

 m
ic

ro
b
io

lo
g
ic

a
l 
a
n
a
ly

s
is

 o
f

m
u
ta

n
s

s
tr

e
p
to

c
o
c
c
i

-
M

S
, 
(n

o
n

-s
ti
m

u
la

te
d
 s

a
li
v
a
 s

a
m

p
le

s
),

 q
u
e
s
ti
o
n
n
a
ir
e
 (

s
u
c
ro

s
e
 i
n
ta

k
e
, 
fl
u
o
r

id
e
 e

x
p
o
s
u
re

)

E
X

: 
C

li
n
ic

a
l 
e
x
a
m

in
a
ti
o
n
, 
v
is

u
a
l 
in

s
p
e
c
ti
o
n
, 
b
it
e
w

in
g
 r

a
d
io

g
ra

p
h
s

6
-7

3
1
4
/3

0
4

(C
a
ri
e
s

-

fr
e
e
)

P
e
tt
i

a
n
d

H
a
u
s
e
n

1
5
, 
2
0
0
0

(R
o
m

e
),

 I
ta

ly

M
e
a
n
 c

a
ri
e
s
 i
n
c
id

e
n
c
e
: 
0
.6

9
 D

M
F

S

S
ig

n
if
ic

a
n
t 
c
o
rr

e
la

ti
o
n
 b

e
tw

e
e
n
 i
n
it
ia

l 
M

S
 s

c
o
re

s
 a

n
d
 c

a
ri
e
s

d
e
v
e
lo

p
m

e
n
t

C
a
ri
e
s
 d

e
v
e
lo

p
m

e
n
t

C
A

, 
K

W
,

M
W

,
S

n
,

S
p

2
V

B
: 
C

a
ri
e
s
 (

D
M

F
S

/
d
m

fs
–

W
H

O
 c

ri
te

ri
a
, 
in

it
ia

l 
le

s
io

n
s
),

 s
e
a
la

n
ts

 f
o
r 

a
ll
 m

o
la

r 
fi
s
s
u
re

s
,

o
c
c
lu

s
a
l

p
la

q
u
e

s
a
m

p
le

s
 f
ro

m
 t
e
e
th

 1
6
 a

n
d
 3

6
 (

m
u
ta

n
s

s
tr

e
p
to

c
o
c
c
i 
te

s
ts

),
 p

la
q
u
e
 i
n
d
e
x
 (

Q
u
ig

le
y

-H
e
in

)

E
X

: 
E

x
p
lo

re
r 

w
it
h
o
u
t 
p
re

s
s
u
re

, 
li
g
h
t 
s
o
u
rc

e

6
-7

2
3
0
/1

6
9

S
p
li
e
th

a
n
d

B
e
rn

h
a
rd

t
3

0
,

1
9
9
9
, 
G

e
rm

a
n
y

M
e
a
n
 c

a
ri
e
s
 i
n
c
re

m
e
n
t:
 0

.9
5
 D

M
F

S

C
a
ri
e
s
 i
n
c
re

m
e
n
t:
 n

e
g
a
ti
v
e
 c

o
rr

e
la

ti
o
n
s
 w

it
h
 b

a
s
e
li
n
e

la
c
to

fe
rr

in
, 
to

ta
l

Ig
G

a
n
d
 t
o
ta

l 
a
n
a
e
ro

b
e
s
; 
p
o
s
it
iv

e
 c

o
rr

e
la

ti
o
n

w
it
h
 s

p
e
c
if
ic

 a
n
ti

-S
.

m
u
ta

n
s

,
Ig

G
a
n
ti
b
o
d
y
 l
e
v
e
ls

,
m

u
ta

n
s

s
tr

e
p
to

c
o
c
c
i,
 l
a
c
to

b
a
c
il
li
 a

n
d
 s

p
e
c
if
ic

 a
n
ti

-S
.

m
u
ta

n
s

Ig
G

.

C
h
il
d
re

n
 w

it
h
 s

ig
n
if
ic

a
n
tl
y
 h

ig
h
e
r 

b
a
s
e
li
n
e
 c

o
n
c
e
n
tr

a
ti
o
n
s
 o

f

h
y
p
o
th

io
c
y
a
n
it
e

, 
to

ta
l

Ig
G

a
n
ti
b
o
d
ie

s
 a

n
d
 t
o
ta

l 
a
n
a
e
ro

b
e
s
:

n
o
 n

e
w

 c
a
ri
e
s
 l
e
s
io

n
s

D
M

F
 i
n
c
re

m
e
n
t 
>

0
S

t,
 C

A
2

V
B

: 
C

a
ri
e
s
 (

D
M

F
/

d
m

f
-

W
H

O
 c

ri
te

ri
a
, 
w

h
it
e
 s

p
o
ts

 l
e
s
io

n
s
),

 p
e
ri
o
d
o
n
ta

l 
s
ta

tu
s
 (

b
le

e
d
in

g
 a

n
d
 c

a
lc

u
lu

s
),

u
s
a
g
e
 o

f 
fl
u
o
ri
d
a
te

d
 d

e
n
ti
fr

ic
e
s
, 
s
a
li
v
a
 s

a
m

p
le

s
 (

b
u
ff
e
r 

c
a
p
a
c
it

y
,

h
y
p
o
th

io
c
y
a
n
it
e

a
s
s
a
y
, 
to

ta
l 
s
tr

e
p
to

c
o
c
c
i

a
n
d

m
u
ta

n
s

s
tr

e
p
to

c
o
c
c
i,

la
c
to

fe
rr

in
a
n
d

ly
s
o
z
y
m

e
a
n
a
ly

s
is

, 
a
g
g
lu

ti
n
a
ti
o
n
 a

s
s
a
y
, 
to

ta
l 
s
a
li
v
a
ry

p
e
ro

x
id

a
s
e

a
c
ti
v
it
y
, 
to

ta
l 
a
n
d
 s

p
e
c
if
ic

Ig
A

a
n
d

Ig
G

a
n
ti
b
o
d
ie

s
)

E
X

: 
V

is
u
a
l
-t

a
c
ti
le

 m
e
th

o
d
 +

 F
O

T
I

1
2

6
9
/6

3
K

ir
s
ti
lä

e
t 
a
l.

2
9
,

1
9
9
8
 (

T
u
rk

u
),

F
in

la
n
d

M
a
in

 r
e
s
u
lt
s

R
P

/R
F

§
O

u
tc

o
m

e
 V

a
ri
a
b
le

D
a
ta

A
n
a
ly

s
is

¶

T
im

e
‡

V
a
ri
a
b
le

s
 c

o
ll
e
c
te

d
 a

t 
b
a
s
e
li
n
e
 (

V
B

)

E
x
a
m

in
a
ti
o
n
 (

E
X

)

A
g

e
†

S
a
m

p
le

*
A

u
th

o
r

, 
y
e
a
r 

a
n
d

lo
c
a
l

1686

T
a
b
le

 
3
 
- 

R
ev

ie
w

 o
f 

li
te

ra
tu

re
 o

n
 c

ar
ie

s 
ri

sk
 a

ss
es

sm
en

t 
in

 s
ch

o
o
lc

h
il

d
re

n
 (

6
-1

2
 y

ea
rs

 o
ld

) 
o
v
er

 t
h
e 

la
st

 1
0
 y

ea
rs

 (
1
9
9
7
-2

0
0
7
)

Braz J Oral Sci. 7(27):1682-1690                              An overview of caries risk assessment in 0-18 year-olds over the last ten years (1997-2007)



S
ig

n
if
ic

a
n

t,
 b

u
t 

w
e

a
k
, 

c
o

rr
e

la
ti
o

n
 b

e
tw

e
e

n
 M

S
 c

o
u

n
ts

 a
n

d

c
a

ri
e

s

R
P

: 
p

a
s
t 

c
a

ri
e

s
 e

x
p

e
ri
e

n
c
e

C
a

ri
e

s
 i
n

c
re

m
e

n
t 

(d
e

n
ti
n

le
v
e

l)

C
A

, 
M

R
A

2
V

B
: 

C
a

ri
e

s
 (

e
n

a
m

e
l 
+

 d
e

n
ti
n

 l
e

s
io

n
s
),

M
u

ta
n

s
S

tr
e

p
to

c
o

c
c
i 
(M

S
) 

c
o

u
n

ts
 i
n

 s
a

li
v
a

E
X

:
T
e

e
th

 d
ri
e

d
, 

fi
b

e
r

-o
p

ti
c
 l
ig

h
t 

o
n

 a
 m

o
u

th
 m

ir
ro

r,
 d

e
n

ta
l 
p

ro
b

e
 (

re
m

o
v
a

l 
o

f 
p

la
q

u
e

,
d

e
te

c
ti
o

n
 o

f 
fi
s
s
u

re

s
e

a
la

n
ts

)

6
-7

6
5

0
/4

3
3

Z
h

a
n

g
 e

t 
a

l.
4
5
,

2
0

0
7

 (
W

u
h

a
n

),

C
h

in
a

T
o

ta
l 
D

M
F

T
in

c
re

m
e

n
t:

 0
.5

2

R
P

: 
c
a

ri
e

s
 i
n

 p
e

rm
a

n
e

n
t 

m
o

la
rs

, 
D

M
F

T
, 

c
a

ri
e

s
 s

e
v
e

ri
ty

D
M

F
T

�
1

 i
n

c
re

m
e

n
t

C
S

, 
M

W
,

K
W

, 
C

A
,

W
, 

M
R

A

2
V

B
: 

C
a

ri
e

s
 (

D
M

F
T
,

d
m

ft
–

W
H

O
 c

ri
te

ri
a

, 
c
a

ri
e

s
 i
n

 a
n

y
 f

ir
s
t 

p
e

rm
a

n
e

n
t 

m
o

la
r,
 c

a
ri
e

s
 i
n

 a
n

y
 p

e
rm

a
n

e
n

t

u
p

p
e

r 
m

o
la

rs
, 

c
a

ri
e

s
 i
n

 a
n

y
 p

e
rm

a
n

e
n

t 
lo

w
e

r 
m

o
la

rs
, 

c
a

ri
e

s
 s

e
v
e

r
it
y
),

 a
g

e
, 

g
e

n
d

e
r

E
X

: 
D

e
n

ta
l 
m

ir
ro

r,
 t

e
e

th
 d

ri
e

d
 w

it
h

 g
a

u
z
e

, 
n

a
tu

ra
l 
d

a
y
li
g

h
t,

 a
t 

s
c

h
o

o
ls

6
-9

5
8

0
/4

5
2

V
a

ll
e

jo
s

-S
á

n
c
h

e
z

e
t 

a
l.

4
4
, 

2
0

0
6

(C
a

m
p

e
c
h

e
),

M
é

x
ic

o

M
e

a
n

 D
M

F
S

 i
n

c
re

m
e

n
t:

 2
.6

3

R
P

:
d

m
fs

, 
D

M
F

S
, 

m
o

th
e

r
’s

 e
d

u
c
a

ti
o

n

d
m

fs
>

0
: 

h
ig

h
e

s
t

S
n

(6
9

%
)

D
M

F
S

>
0

: 
h

ig
h

e
s
t 

S
p

 (
9

2
%

).

D
M

F
S

�
1

 i
n

c
re

m
e

n
t

C
S

, 
M

N
,

M
L

R
,

S
n

,

S
p

, 
P

V
,

R
O

C

7
V

B
: 

C
a

ri
e

s
 (

D
M

F
/

d
m

f
-W

H
O

 c
ri
te

ri
a

, 
in

it
ia

l 
c
a

ri
e

s
 l
e

s
io

n
s
),

 p
la

q
u

e
 s

c
o

re
 (

S
im

p
li
fi
e

d
O

ra
l 
H

y
g

ie
n

e
 I

n
d

e
x
),

d
e

n
ta

l
fl
u

o
ro

s
is

(D
e

a
n

 i
n

d
e

x
),

 q
u

e
s
ti
o

n
n

a
ir
e

 (
to

o
th

b
ru

s
h

in
g

fr
e

q
u

e
n

c
y,

 t
y
p

e
 o

f 
p

re
v
e

n
ti
v
e

 t
o

p
ic

a
l 
m

e
th

o
d

,

fa
th

e
r’

s
 a

n
d

 m
o

th
e

r
’s

 e
d

u
c
a

ti
o

n
a

l 
le

v
e

l,
 g

e
n

d
e

r,
 r

a
c
e

, 
n

u
m

b
e

r 
o

f 
w

o
rk

in
g

 p
e

o
p

le
 l
iv

i
n

g
 i
n

 t
h

e
 h

o
u

s
e

h
o

ld
,

m
o

n
th

ly
 f

a
m

il
y
 i
n

c
o

m
e

, 
d

e
n

ta
l 
v
is

it
s
 i
n

 t
h

e
 y

e
a

r 
p

ri
o

r 
to

 b
a

s
e

li
n

e
, 

re
a

s
o

n
 f

o
r 

d
e

n
ta

l 
v
is

it
, 

d
a

il
y
 s

u
g

a
r

c
o

n
s
u

m
p

ti
o

n
, 

n
u

m
b

e
r 

o
f 

s
u

g
a

r 
s
p

o
o

n
s
 i
n

 b
e

v
e

ra
g

e
s
, 

n
u

m
b

e
r 

o
f 

b
e

tw
e

e
n

-m
e

a
l 
s
n

a
c
k
s
 o

ra
l 
h

y
g

ie
n

e

h
a

b
it
s
)

E
X

: 
D

e
n

ta
l 
p

ro
b

e
 a

n
d

 m
ir
ro

r,
 u

n
d

e
r 

n
a

tu
ra

l 
li
g

h
t 

in
 o

u
td

o
o

r 
s
e

tt
in

g
 a

t 
s
c
h

o
o

ls

6
-8

4
8

0
/2

0
6

T
a

g
li
a

fe
rr

o
e

t

a
l.

4
3
, 

2
0

0
6

(P
ir
a

c
ic

a
b

a
),

B
ra

z
il

D
M

F
S

 i
n

c
re

a
s
e

: 
p

o
s
it
iv

e
ly

 a
s
s
o

c
ia

te
d

 w
it
h

d
m

fs
in

c
re

a
s
e

a
n

d
 w

it
h

 i
n

it
ia

l 
c
a

ri
e

s

R
P

: 
p

a
s
t 

c
a

ri
e

s
 e

x
p

e
ri
e

n
c
e

A
re

a
 u

n
d

e
r 

R
O

C
 c

u
rv

e
: 

7
6

%

C
a

ri
e

s
 i
n

c
id

e
n

c
e

C
S

,

M
L

R
,

S
n

,

S
p

, 
P

V
,

R
O

C

1
V

B
: 

C
a

ri
e

s
 (

d
m

fs
, 

D
M

F
S

, 
n

u
m

b
e

r 
o

f 
s
u

rf
a

c
e

s
 w

it
h

 i
n

it
ia

l 
c
a

ri
e

s
, 

n
º

o
f 

s
u

rf
a

c
e

s
 w

it
h

 p
ri
m

a
ry

 a
n

d
 s

e
c
o

n
d

a
ry

c
a

ri
e

s
, 

n
u

m
b

e
r 

o
f 

fi
ll
e

d
 s

u
rf

a
c
e

s
, 

n
u

m
b

e
r 

o
f 

s
u

rf
a

c
e

s
 m

is
s
in

g
 d

u
e

 t
o

 c
a

ri
e

s
),

 g
e

n
d

e
r,
 y

e
a

r 
o

f 
b

ir
th

, 
n

u
m

b
e

r

o
f 

c
h

il
d

re
n

 i
n

 h
o

u
s
e

h
o

ld
, 

n
u

m
b

e
r 

o
f 

a
d

u
lt
s
 i
n

 h
o

u
s
e

h
o

ld
, 

c
it
iz

e
n

s
h

ip

E
X

: 
D

a
n

is
h

 r
o

u
ti
n

e
 d

e
n

ta
l 
a

n
d

 s
o

c
io

e
c
o

n
o

m
ic

 r
e

g
is

te
rs

7
-

1
2

3
7

0
5

J
e

p
p

e
s
e

n
a

n
d

F
o

ld
s
p

a
n

g
4

2
,

2
0

0
6

 (
A

a
rh

u
s
),

D
e

n
m

a
rk

M
e

a
n

 c
a

ri
e

s
 i
n

c
re

m
e

n
t:

  
4

.2
 (

e
n

a
m

e
l 
+

 d
e

n
ti
n

a
l 
le

s
io

n
s
)

H
ig

h
e

s
t 

p
re

d
ic

ti
v
e

 p
o

w
e

r:
 p

ro
x
im

a
l 
le

s
io

n
s
 i
n

 p
re

m
o

la
rs

 a
n

d

s
e

c
o

n
d

 m
o

la
rs

C
a

ri
e

s
 (

d
e

n
ti
n

 l
e

v
e

l)

in
c
re

m
e

n
t 

o
n

 p
ro

x
im

a
l

s
u

rf
a

c
e

s
 (

D
F

S
 >

 0
, 

1
, 

2
,

3
 a

n
d

 4
)

S
t,

 S
n

,

S
p

6
V

B
: 

C
a

ri
e

s
 (

e
n

a
m

e
l 
+

 d
e

n
ti
n

 l
e

s
io

n
s
),

 q
u

e
s
ti
o

n
n

a
ir
e

 (
g

e
n

d
e

r,
 m

o
th

e
r’
s
 e

d
u

c
a

ti
o

n
)

E
X

:
T
e

e
th

 p
o

li
s
h

e
d

 a
n

d
 d

ri
e

d
, 

p
la

n
e

 m
o

u
th

 m
ir
ro

r,
 p

ro
b

e
, 

b
it
e

w
in

g
ra

d
io

g
ra

p
h

s
 i
n

 e
q

u
ip

p
e

d
 d

e
n

ta
l 
c
li
n

ic
s

1
2

1
5

9
/1

1
2

D
a

v
id

 e
t 

a
l.

4
1
,

2
0

0
6

 (
B

e
rg

e
n

),

N
o

rw
a

y

R
P

: 
g

e
n

d
e

r 
(g

ir
ls

-
fo

r 
lo

w
e

r 
m

o
la

rs
),

 c
a

v
it
y
 e

x
p

e
ri
e

n
c
e

 i
n

 t
h

e

d
e

c
id

u
o

u
s
 d

e
n

ti
ti
o

n
; 

R
F

: 
o

c
c
lu

s
a

l 
p

la
q

u
e

 a
c
c
u

m
u

la
ti
o

n
,

re
p

o
rt

e
d

 b
ru

s
h

in
g

 f
re

q
u

e
n

c
y

S
u

rv
iv

a
l 
ti
m

e
 o

f 
a

 P
F

M
S

A
6

V
B

: 
C

a
ri
e

s
 (

B
A

S
C

D
 c

ri
te

ri
a

),
 p

re
s
e

n
c
e

 o
f 

p
la

q
u

e
 o

n
 t

h
e

 o
c
c
lu

s
a

l 
s
u

rf
a

c
e

s
 o

f 
p

e
rm

a
n

e
n

t 
fi
rs

t 
m

o
la

rs

(P
F

M
),

 t
im

in
g

 o
f 

to
o

th
 e

m
e

rg
e

n
c
e

, 
g

e
n

d
e

r ,
 q

u
e

s
ti
o

n
n

a
ir
e

 (
o

ra
l 
h

y
g

ie
n

e
 a

n
d

 d
ie

ta
ry

 h
a

b
it
s
)

E
X

: 
V

is
u

a
l 
in

s
p

e
c
ti
o

n

6
4

4
6

8
L

e
ro

y
 e

t 
a

l.
4

0
,

2
0

0
5

 (
F

la
n

d
e

rs
),

B
e

lg
iu

m

R
P

: 
P

re
s
e

n
c
e

 o
f 

c
a

ri
e

s
 o

n
 P

S
M

D
S

S
n

=
 4

5
%

 t
o

 9
7

%
; 

S
p

=
 8

0
%

 t
o

 8
9

%

C
a

ri
e

s
 i
n

c
id

e
n

c
e

 o
n

m
e

s
ia

l 
s
u

rf
a

c
e

s
 o

f

p
e

rm
a

n
e

n
t 

1
º

m
o

la
rs

(M
S

P
F

M
)

M
L

R
, 

S
n

,

S
p

, 
P

V

4
V

B
: 

C
a

ri
e

s
 (

p
re

s
e

n
c
e

 o
f 

c
a

ri
e

s
 o

n
 t

h
e

 p
ri
m

a
ry

 s
e

c
o

n
d

 m
o

la
rs

’
d

is
ta

l 
s
u

rf
a

c
e

s
-

P
S

M
D

S
),

 a
g

e
, 

g
e

n
d

e
r

E
X

: 
B

it
e

w
in

g
 r

a
d

io
g

ra
p

h
s

6
-8

3
1

4
/1

9
6

V
a

n
d

e
ra

s
 e

t 
a

l.
3
9
,

2
0

0
4

, 
G

re
e

c
e

R
F

: 
H

ig
h

 M
S

 l
e

v
e

ls

L
o

w
 M

S
 l
e

v
e

ls
: 

s
ig

n
if
ic

a
n

t 
e

ff
e

c
t 

o
n

 t
h

e
 l
o

n
g

e
r 

s
u

rv
iv

a
l 
ti
m

e
s

T
im

e
 t

o
 c

a
ri
e

s
 o

n
s
e

t
S

A
, 

W
6

V
B

: 
C

a
ri
e

s
 (

v
is

u
a

l
-t

a
c
ti
le

 c
ri
te

ri
a

 o
f 

R
a

d
ik

e
),

 m
ic

ro
b

io
lo

g
ic

a
l 
(M

S
 c

o
u

n
ts

 i
n

 w
h

o
le

s
ti
m

u
la

te
d

 s
a

li
v
a

: 
if

�
1

0
6

C
F

U
/m

l 
h

ig
h

 l
e

v
e

ls
 o

f 
M

S
)

E
X

: 
F

ib
e

r
-o

p
ti
c
 l
ig

h
ts

, 
p

la
n

e
 m

ir
ro

rs
, 

#
2

3
 e

x
p

lo
re

rs
 (

c
le

a
n

in
g

 o
f 

s
u

rf
a

c
e

s
a

n
d

 d
e

te
c
ti
n

g
 o

f 
s
e

a
la

n
ts

)

6
-7

4
6

4
*/

1
6

0

*c
a

ri
e

s
-

fr
e

e

K
o

p
y
c
k
a

-

K
e

d
z
ie

ra
w

s
k
i 
a

n
d

B
il
li
n

g
s

1
6
, 

2
0

0
4

(N
e

w
Y

o
rk

),
 U

S
A

M
e

a
n

 D
M

F
S

 i
n

c
re

m
e

n
t:

 1
.0

 (
in

c
lu

d
in

g
 e

n
a

m
e

l 
le

s
io

n
=

1
.8

8
)

R
P

: 
p

re
v
io

u
s
 e

x
p

e
ri
e

n
c
e

 o
f 

c
a

ri
e

s
, 

s
o

c
io

e
c
o

n
o

m
ic

 l
e

v
e

l

C
a

ri
e

s
 i
n

c
re

m
e

n
t

P
R

2
V

B
: 

C
a

ri
e

s
 (

D
M

F
 +

 e
n

a
m

e
l 
c
a

ri
e

s
),

 s
e

a
la

n
ts

, 
q

u
e

s
ti
o

n
n

a
ir
e

 (
e

th
n

ic
i

ty
, 

re
s
id

e
n

ti
a

l 
a

re
a

, 
s
o

c
io

e
c
o

n
o

m
ic

le
v
e

l)

E
X

: 
C

li
n

ic
a

l 
s
e

tt
in

g
: 

m
ir
ro

r,
 g

o
o

d
 o

p
e

ra
ti
n

g
 l
ig

h
t,

 c
o

m
p

re
s
s
e

d
 a

ir
, 

c
o

tt
o

n
 r

o
ll
s
, 

tw
o

 b
it
e

w
in

g
s
 r

a
d

io
g

ra
p

h
s

1
2

3
3

7
3

/3
1

0
7

K
ä
ll
e

s
t
å

l 
a

n
d

W
a

ll
3

8
, 

2
0

0
2

,

S
w

e
d

e
n

M
a

in
 r

e
s
u

lt
s

R
P

/R
F

§
O

u
tc

o
m

e
 V

a
ri
a

b
le

D
a

ta

A
n

a
ly

s
is

¶

T
im

e
‡

V
a

ri
a

b
le

s
 c

o
ll
e

c
te

d
 a

t 
b

a
s
e

li
n

e
 (

V
B

)

E
x
a

m
in

a
ti
o

n
 (

E
X

)

A
g

e
†

S
a

m
p

le
*

A
u

th
o

r
, 

y
e

a
r 

a
n

d

lo
c
a

l

T
a

b
le

 3
–

c
o

n
t.

S
ig

n
if
ic

a
n

t,
 b

u
t 

w
e

a
k
, 

c
o

rr
e

la
ti
o

n
 b

e
tw

e
e

n
 M

S
 c

o
u

n
ts

 a
n

d

c
a

ri
e

s

R
P

: 
p

a
s
t 

c
a

ri
e

s
 e

x
p

e
ri
e

n
c
e

C
a

ri
e

s
 i
n

c
re

m
e

n
t 

(d
e

n
ti
n

le
v
e

l)

C
A

, 
M

R
A

2
V

B
: 

C
a

ri
e

s
 (

e
n

a
m

e
l 
+

 d
e

n
ti
n

 l
e

s
io

n
s
),

M
u

ta
n

s
S

tr
e

p
to

c
o

c
c
i 
(M

S
) 

c
o

u
n

ts
 i
n

 s
a

li
v
a

E
X

:
T
e

e
th

 d
ri
e

d
, 

fi
b

e
r

-o
p

ti
c
 l
ig

h
t 

o
n

 a
 m

o
u

th
 m

ir
ro

r,
 d

e
n

ta
l 
p

ro
b

e
 (

re
m

o
v
a

l 
o

f 
p

la
q

u
e

,
d

e
te

c
ti
o

n
 o

f 
fi
s
s
u

re

s
e

a
la

n
ts

)

6
-7

6
5

0
/4

3
3

Z
h

a
n

g
 e

t 
a

l.
4
5
,

2
0

0
7

 (
W

u
h

a
n

),

C
h

in
a

T
o

ta
l 
D

M
F

T
in

c
re

m
e

n
t:

 0
.5

2

R
P

: 
c
a

ri
e

s
 i
n

 p
e

rm
a

n
e

n
t 

m
o

la
rs

, 
D

M
F

T
, 

c
a

ri
e

s
 s

e
v
e

ri
ty

D
M

F
T

�
1

 i
n

c
re

m
e

n
t

C
S

, 
M

W
,

K
W

, 
C

A
,

W
, 

M
R

A

2
V

B
: 

C
a

ri
e

s
 (

D
M

F
T
,

d
m

ft
–

W
H

O
 c

ri
te

ri
a

, 
c
a

ri
e

s
 i
n

 a
n

y
 f

ir
s
t 

p
e

rm
a

n
e

n
t 

m
o

la
r,
 c

a
ri
e

s
 i
n

 a
n

y
 p

e
rm

a
n

e
n

t

u
p

p
e

r 
m

o
la

rs
, 

c
a

ri
e

s
 i
n

 a
n

y
 p

e
rm

a
n

e
n

t 
lo

w
e

r 
m

o
la

rs
, 

c
a

ri
e

s
 s

e
v
e

r
it
y
),

 a
g

e
, 

g
e

n
d

e
r

E
X

: 
D

e
n

ta
l 
m

ir
ro

r,
 t

e
e

th
 d

ri
e

d
 w

it
h

 g
a

u
z
e

, 
n

a
tu

ra
l 
d

a
y
li
g

h
t,

 a
t 

s
c

h
o

o
ls

6
-9

5
8

0
/4

5
2

V
a

ll
e

jo
s

-S
á

n
c
h

e
z

e
t 

a
l.

4
4
, 

2
0

0
6

(C
a

m
p

e
c
h

e
),

M
é

x
ic

o

M
e

a
n

 D
M

F
S

 i
n

c
re

m
e

n
t:

 2
.6

3

R
P

:
d

m
fs

, 
D

M
F

S
, 

m
o

th
e

r
’s

 e
d

u
c
a

ti
o

n

d
m

fs
>

0
: 

h
ig

h
e

s
t

S
n

(6
9

%
)

D
M

F
S

>
0

: 
h

ig
h

e
s
t 

S
p

 (
9

2
%

).

D
M

F
S

�
1

 i
n

c
re

m
e

n
t

C
S

, 
M

N
,

M
L

R
,

S
n

,

S
p

, 
P

V
,

R
O

C

7
V

B
: 

C
a

ri
e

s
 (

D
M

F
/

d
m

f
-W

H
O

 c
ri
te

ri
a

, 
in

it
ia

l 
c
a

ri
e

s
 l
e

s
io

n
s
),

 p
la

q
u

e
 s

c
o

re
 (

S
im

p
li
fi
e

d
O

ra
l 
H

y
g

ie
n

e
 I

n
d

e
x
),

d
e

n
ta

l
fl
u

o
ro

s
is

(D
e

a
n

 i
n

d
e

x
),

 q
u

e
s
ti
o

n
n

a
ir
e

 (
to

o
th

b
ru

s
h

in
g

fr
e

q
u

e
n

c
y,

 t
y
p

e
 o

f 
p

re
v
e

n
ti
v
e

 t
o

p
ic

a
l 
m

e
th

o
d

,

fa
th

e
r’

s
 a

n
d

 m
o

th
e

r
’s

 e
d

u
c
a

ti
o

n
a

l 
le

v
e

l,
 g

e
n

d
e

r,
 r

a
c
e

, 
n

u
m

b
e

r 
o

f 
w

o
rk

in
g

 p
e

o
p

le
 l
iv

i
n

g
 i
n

 t
h

e
 h

o
u

s
e

h
o

ld
,

m
o

n
th

ly
 f

a
m

il
y
 i
n

c
o

m
e

, 
d

e
n

ta
l 
v
is

it
s
 i
n

 t
h

e
 y

e
a

r 
p

ri
o

r 
to

 b
a

s
e

li
n

e
, 

re
a

s
o

n
 f

o
r 

d
e

n
ta

l 
v
is

it
, 

d
a

il
y
 s

u
g

a
r

c
o

n
s
u

m
p

ti
o

n
, 

n
u

m
b

e
r 

o
f 

s
u

g
a

r 
s
p

o
o

n
s
 i
n

 b
e

v
e

ra
g

e
s
, 

n
u

m
b

e
r 

o
f 

b
e

tw
e

e
n

-m
e

a
l 
s
n

a
c
k
s
 o

ra
l 
h

y
g

ie
n

e

h
a

b
it
s
)

E
X

: 
D

e
n

ta
l 
p

ro
b

e
 a

n
d

 m
ir
ro

r,
 u

n
d

e
r 

n
a

tu
ra

l 
li
g

h
t 

in
 o

u
td

o
o

r 
s
e

tt
in

g
 a

t 
s
c
h

o
o

ls

6
-8

4
8

0
/2

0
6

T
a

g
li
a

fe
rr

o
e

t

a
l.

4
3
, 

2
0

0
6

(P
ir
a

c
ic

a
b

a
),

B
ra

z
il

D
M

F
S

 i
n

c
re

a
s
e

: 
p

o
s
it
iv

e
ly

 a
s
s
o

c
ia

te
d

 w
it
h

d
m

fs
in

c
re

a
s
e

a
n

d
 w

it
h

 i
n

it
ia

l 
c
a

ri
e

s

R
P

: 
p

a
s
t 

c
a

ri
e

s
 e

x
p

e
ri
e

n
c
e

A
re

a
 u

n
d

e
r 

R
O

C
 c

u
rv

e
: 

7
6

%

C
a

ri
e

s
 i
n

c
id

e
n

c
e

C
S

,

M
L

R
,

S
n

,

S
p

, 
P

V
,

R
O

C

1
V

B
: 

C
a

ri
e

s
 (

d
m

fs
, 

D
M

F
S

, 
n

u
m

b
e

r 
o

f 
s
u

rf
a

c
e

s
 w

it
h

 i
n

it
ia

l 
c
a

ri
e

s
, 

n
º

o
f 

s
u

rf
a

c
e

s
 w

it
h

 p
ri
m

a
ry

 a
n

d
 s

e
c
o

n
d

a
ry

c
a

ri
e

s
, 

n
u

m
b

e
r 

o
f 

fi
ll
e

d
 s

u
rf

a
c
e

s
, 

n
u

m
b

e
r 

o
f 

s
u

rf
a

c
e

s
 m

is
s
in

g
 d

u
e

 t
o

 c
a

ri
e

s
),

 g
e

n
d

e
r,
 y

e
a

r 
o

f 
b

ir
th

, 
n

u
m

b
e

r

o
f 

c
h

il
d

re
n

 i
n

 h
o

u
s
e

h
o

ld
, 

n
u

m
b

e
r 

o
f 

a
d

u
lt
s
 i
n

 h
o

u
s
e

h
o

ld
, 

c
it
iz

e
n

s
h

ip

E
X

: 
D

a
n

is
h

 r
o

u
ti
n

e
 d

e
n

ta
l 
a

n
d

 s
o

c
io

e
c
o

n
o

m
ic

 r
e

g
is

te
rs

7
-

1
2

3
7

0
5

J
e

p
p

e
s
e

n
a

n
d

F
o

ld
s
p

a
n

g
4

2
,

2
0

0
6

 (
A

a
rh

u
s
),

D
e

n
m

a
rk

M
e

a
n

 c
a

ri
e

s
 i
n

c
re

m
e

n
t:

  
4

.2
 (

e
n

a
m

e
l 
+

 d
e

n
ti
n

a
l 
le

s
io

n
s
)

H
ig

h
e

s
t 

p
re

d
ic

ti
v
e

 p
o

w
e

r:
 p

ro
x
im

a
l 
le

s
io

n
s
 i
n

 p
re

m
o

la
rs

 a
n

d

s
e

c
o

n
d

 m
o

la
rs

C
a

ri
e

s
 (

d
e

n
ti
n

 l
e

v
e

l)

in
c
re

m
e

n
t 

o
n

 p
ro

x
im

a
l

s
u

rf
a

c
e

s
 (

D
F

S
 >

 0
, 

1
, 

2
,

3
 a

n
d

 4
)

S
t,

 S
n

,

S
p

6
V

B
: 

C
a

ri
e

s
 (

e
n

a
m

e
l 
+

 d
e

n
ti
n

 l
e

s
io

n
s
),

 q
u

e
s
ti
o

n
n

a
ir
e

 (
g

e
n

d
e

r,
 m

o
th

e
r’
s
 e

d
u

c
a

ti
o

n
)

E
X

:
T
e

e
th

 p
o

li
s
h

e
d

 a
n

d
 d

ri
e

d
, 

p
la

n
e

 m
o

u
th

 m
ir
ro

r,
 p

ro
b

e
, 

b
it
e

w
in

g
ra

d
io

g
ra

p
h

s
 i
n

 e
q

u
ip

p
e

d
 d

e
n

ta
l 
c
li
n

ic
s

1
2

1
5

9
/1

1
2

D
a

v
id

 e
t 

a
l.

4
1
,

2
0

0
6

 (
B

e
rg

e
n

),

N
o

rw
a

y

R
P

: 
g

e
n

d
e

r 
(g

ir
ls

-
fo

r 
lo

w
e

r 
m

o
la

rs
),

 c
a

v
it
y
 e

x
p

e
ri
e

n
c
e

 i
n

 t
h

e

d
e

c
id

u
o

u
s
 d

e
n

ti
ti
o

n
; 

R
F

: 
o

c
c
lu

s
a

l 
p

la
q

u
e

 a
c
c
u

m
u

la
ti
o

n
,

re
p

o
rt

e
d

 b
ru

s
h

in
g

 f
re

q
u

e
n

c
y

S
u

rv
iv

a
l 
ti
m

e
 o

f 
a

 P
F

M
S

A
6

V
B

: 
C

a
ri
e

s
 (

B
A

S
C

D
 c

ri
te

ri
a

),
 p

re
s
e

n
c
e

 o
f 

p
la

q
u

e
 o

n
 t

h
e

 o
c
c
lu

s
a

l 
s
u

rf
a

c
e

s
 o

f 
p

e
rm

a
n

e
n

t 
fi
rs

t 
m

o
la

rs

(P
F

M
),

 t
im

in
g

 o
f 

to
o

th
 e

m
e

rg
e

n
c
e

, 
g

e
n

d
e

r ,
 q

u
e

s
ti
o

n
n

a
ir
e

 (
o

ra
l 
h

y
g

ie
n

e
 a

n
d

 d
ie

ta
ry

 h
a

b
it
s
)

E
X

: 
V

is
u

a
l 
in

s
p

e
c
ti
o

n

6
4

4
6

8
L

e
ro

y
 e

t 
a

l.
4

0
,

2
0

0
5

 (
F

la
n

d
e

rs
),

B
e

lg
iu

m

R
P

: 
P

re
s
e

n
c
e

 o
f 

c
a

ri
e

s
 o

n
 P

S
M

D
S

S
n

=
 4

5
%

 t
o

 9
7

%
; 

S
p

=
 8

0
%

 t
o

 8
9

%

C
a

ri
e

s
 i
n

c
id

e
n

c
e

 o
n

m
e

s
ia

l 
s
u

rf
a

c
e

s
 o

f

p
e

rm
a

n
e

n
t 

1
º

m
o

la
rs

(M
S

P
F

M
)

M
L

R
, 

S
n

,

S
p

, 
P

V

4
V

B
: 

C
a

ri
e

s
 (

p
re

s
e

n
c
e

 o
f 

c
a

ri
e

s
 o

n
 t

h
e

 p
ri
m

a
ry

 s
e

c
o

n
d

 m
o

la
rs

’
d

is
ta

l 
s
u

rf
a

c
e

s
-

P
S

M
D

S
),

 a
g

e
, 

g
e

n
d

e
r

E
X

: 
B

it
e

w
in

g
 r

a
d

io
g

ra
p

h
s

6
-8

3
1

4
/1

9
6

V
a

n
d

e
ra

s
 e

t 
a

l.
3
9
,

2
0

0
4

, 
G

re
e

c
e

R
F

: 
H

ig
h

 M
S

 l
e

v
e

ls

L
o

w
 M

S
 l
e

v
e

ls
: 

s
ig

n
if
ic

a
n

t 
e

ff
e

c
t 

o
n

 t
h

e
 l
o

n
g

e
r 

s
u

rv
iv

a
l 
ti
m

e
s

T
im

e
 t

o
 c

a
ri
e

s
 o

n
s
e

t
S

A
, 

W
6

V
B

: 
C

a
ri
e

s
 (

v
is

u
a

l
-t

a
c
ti
le

 c
ri
te

ri
a

 o
f 

R
a

d
ik

e
),

 m
ic

ro
b

io
lo

g
ic

a
l 
(M

S
 c

o
u

n
ts

 i
n

 w
h

o
le

s
ti
m

u
la

te
d

 s
a

li
v
a

: 
if

�
1

0
6

C
F

U
/m

l 
h

ig
h

 l
e

v
e

ls
 o

f 
M

S
)

E
X

: 
F

ib
e

r
-o

p
ti
c
 l
ig

h
ts

, 
p

la
n

e
 m

ir
ro

rs
, 

#
2

3
 e

x
p

lo
re

rs
 (

c
le

a
n

in
g

 o
f 

s
u

rf
a

c
e

s
a

n
d

 d
e

te
c
ti
n

g
 o

f 
s
e

a
la

n
ts

)

6
-7

4
6

4
*/

1
6

0

*c
a

ri
e

s
-

fr
e

e

K
o

p
y
c
k
a

-

K
e

d
z
ie

ra
w

s
k
i 
a

n
d

B
il
li
n

g
s

1
6
, 

2
0

0
4

(N
e

w
Y

o
rk

),
 U

S
A

M
e

a
n

 D
M

F
S

 i
n

c
re

m
e

n
t:

 1
.0

 (
in

c
lu

d
in

g
 e

n
a

m
e

l 
le

s
io

n
=

1
.8

8
)

R
P

: 
p

re
v
io

u
s
 e

x
p

e
ri
e

n
c
e

 o
f 

c
a

ri
e

s
, 

s
o

c
io

e
c
o

n
o

m
ic

 l
e

v
e

l

C
a

ri
e

s
 i
n

c
re

m
e

n
t

P
R

2
V

B
: 

C
a

ri
e

s
 (

D
M

F
 +

 e
n

a
m

e
l 
c
a

ri
e

s
),

 s
e

a
la

n
ts

, 
q

u
e

s
ti
o

n
n

a
ir
e

 (
e

th
n

ic
i

ty
, 

re
s
id

e
n

ti
a

l 
a

re
a

, 
s
o

c
io

e
c
o

n
o

m
ic

le
v
e

l)

E
X

: 
C

li
n

ic
a

l 
s
e

tt
in

g
: 

m
ir
ro

r,
 g

o
o

d
 o

p
e

ra
ti
n

g
 l
ig

h
t,

 c
o

m
p

re
s
s
e

d
 a

ir
, 

c
o

tt
o

n
 r

o
ll
s
, 

tw
o

 b
it
e

w
in

g
s
 r

a
d

io
g

ra
p

h
s

1
2

3
3

7
3

/3
1

0
7

K
ä
ll
e

s
t
å

l 
a

n
d

W
a

ll
3

8
, 

2
0

0
2

,

S
w

e
d

e
n

M
a

in
 r

e
s
u

lt
s

R
P

/R
F

§
O

u
tc

o
m

e
 V

a
ri
a

b
le

D
a

ta

A
n

a
ly

s
is

¶

T
im

e
‡

V
a

ri
a

b
le

s
 c

o
ll
e

c
te

d
 a

t 
b

a
s
e

li
n

e
 (

V
B

)

E
x
a

m
in

a
ti
o

n
 (

E
X

)

A
g

e
†

S
a

m
p

le
*

A
u

th
o

r
, 

y
e

a
r 

a
n

d

lo
c
a

l

T
a

b
le

 3
–

c
o

n
t.

1687

*
S

am
p
le

 s
iz

e 
at

 i
n
it

ia
l/

fi
n
al

 e
x
am

in
at

io
n
; 

†
A

g
e 

at
 b

as
el

in
e 

(y
ea

rs
);

 ‡
S

tu
d
y
 l

as
ti

n
g
 (

y
ea

rs
);

 ¶
S

ta
ti

st
ic

al
 t

es
ts

: 
A

N
O

V
A

=
A

n
al

y
si

s 
o
f 

V
ar

ia
n
ce

; 
C

A
=

C
o
rr

el
at

io
n
 a

n
al

y
si

s;
 C

S
=

C
h
i-

sq
u
ar

e;

K
W

=
K

ru
sk

al
l 

W
al

li
s;

 L
iR

A
=

L
in

ea
r 

re
g
re

ss
io

n
 a

n
al

y
si

s;
 M

L
R

=
M

u
lt

ip
le

 l
o
g
is

ti
c 

re
g
re

ss
io

n
; 

M
N

=
M

cN
em

ar
; 

M
R

A
=

M
u
lt

ip
le

 r
eg

re
ss

io
n
 a

n
al

y
si

s;
 M

W
=

M
an

n
-W

h
it

n
ey

; 
P

R
=

P
o
is

so
n

R
eg

re
ss

io
n
; 

P
V

=
P

re
d
ic

ti
v
e 

v
al

u
es

; 
R

O
C

=
R

ec
ei

v
er

 o
p
er

at
o
r 

ch
ar

ac
te

ri
st

ic
 c

u
rv

es
; 

S
A

=
S

u
rv

iv
al

 A
n
al

y
si

s;
 S

n
=

S
en

si
ti

v
it

y
; 

S
p
=

S
p
ec

if
ic

it
y
; 

S
t=

S
tu

d
en

t’
s 

t-
te

st
; 

W
=

W
il

co
x
o
n
; 

§
R

P
/R

F
:

R
is

k
 p

re
d
ic

to
rs

/R
is

k
 f

ac
to

rs
 o

b
ta

in
ed

 i
n
 R

eg
re

ss
io

n
 A

n
al

y
se

s

Braz J Oral Sci. 7(27):1682-1690                              An overview of caries risk assessment in 0-18 year-olds over the last ten years (1997-2007)



1688

*
S

am
p
le

 s
iz

e 
at

 i
n
it

ia
l/

fi
n
al

 e
x
am

in
at

io
n
; 

†
A

g
e 

at
 b

as
el

in
e 

(y
ea

rs
);

 ‡
S

tu
d
y
 l

as
ti

n
g
 (

y
ea

rs
);

 ¶
S

ta
ti

st
ic

al
 t

es
ts

: 
A

N
O

V
A

=
A

n
al

y
si

s 
o
f 

V
ar

ia
n
ce

; 
C

A
=

C
o
rr

el
at

io
n
 a

n
al

y
si

s;
 C

S
=

C
h
i-

sq
u
ar

e;
M

L
R

=
M

u
lt

ip
le

 l
o
g
is

ti
c 

re
g
re

ss
io

n
; 

M
R

A
=

M
u
lt

ip
le

 r
eg

re
ss

io
n
 a

n
al

y
si

s;
 M

W
=

M
an

n
-W

h
it

n
ey

; 
P

R
=

P
o
is

so
n
 R

eg
re

ss
io

n
; 

P
V

=
P

re
d
ic

ti
v
e 

v
al

u
es

; 
R

R
=

R
el

at
iv

e 
ri

sk
; 

S
n
=

S
en

si
ti

v
it

y
;

S
p
=

S
p
ec

if
ic

it
y
; 

S
t=

S
tu

d
en

t’
s 

t-
te

st
; 

W
=

W
il

co
x
o
n
; 

§
R

P
/R

F
: 

R
is

k
 p

re
d
ic

to
rs

/R
is

k
 f

ac
to

rs
 o

b
ta

in
ed

 i
n
 R

eg
re

ss
io

n
 A

n
al

y
se

s

T
a
b
le

 
4
 
- 

R
ev

ie
w

 o
f 

li
te

ra
tu

re
 o

n
 c

ar
ie

s 
ri

sk
 a

ss
es

sm
en

t 
in

 a
d
o
le

sc
en

ts
 (

1
3
-1

8
 y

ea
rs

 o
ld

) 
o
v
er

 t
h
e 

la
st

 1
0
 y

ea
rs

 (
1
9
9
7
-2

0
0
7
)

Braz J Oral Sci. 7(27):1682-1690                              An overview of caries risk assessment in 0-18 year-olds over the last ten years (1997-2007)

R
P

:
o

ra
l
h

e
a

lt
h

c
o

n
c
e

rn
;

R
F

:
o

ra
l
h

e
a

lt
h

b
e

h
a

v
io

r

(f
o

r
o

n
ly

th
o

s
e

a
g

e
d

1
7

y
e

a
rs

a
t

b
a

s
e

li
n

e
)

D
if
fe

re
n

c
e

s
b

e
tw

e
e

n

s
c
o

re
s

fr
o

m
b

a
s
e

li
n

e

a
n

d
fi
n

a
l
e

x
a

m
in

a
ti
o

n

S
t,

M
L

R
3

V
B

:
C

a
ri
e

s
,

q
u

e
s
ti
o

n
n

a
ir
e

(d
e

n
ta

l
k
n

o
w

le
d

g
e

,
o

ra
l
h

e
a

lt
h

b
e

h
a

v
io

r,
o

ra
l
h

e
a

lt
h

c
a

re

a
tt

it
u

d
e

s
)

E
X

:
C

li
n

ic
a

l
a

n
d

ra
d

io
g

ra
p

h
ic

e
x
a

m
in

a
ti
o

n

1
4

,

1
7

,

2
0

2
0

2
P

o
o

rt
e

rm
a

n

e
t

a
l.

5
2
,

2
0

0
3

,
T

h
e

N
e

th
e

rl
a

n
d

s

M
e

a
n

D
F

S
a

n
d

D
M

F
S

in
c
re

m
e

n
t:

0
.9

8
a

n
d

1
.1

0
,

re
s
p

e
c
ti
v
e

ly

R
F

:
lo

w
s
u

g
a

r-
h

ig
h

s
ta

rc
h

fo
o

d
s

fo
r

c
a

ri
e

s
in

c
re

m
e

n
t

o
n

a
ll

s
u

rf
a

c
e

s
a

n
d

p
it

a
n

d
fi
s
s
u

re
s

s
u

rf
a

c
e

s

T
o

ta
l
D

M
F

S

in
c
re

m
e

n
t;

p
it

a
n

d

fi
s
s
u

re
D

M
F

in
c
re

m
e

n
t;

s
m

o
o

th

s
u

rf
a

c
e

D
M

F

in
c
re

m
e

n
t
�

1

M
L

R
2

V
B

:
C

a
ri
e

s
(W

H
O

c
ri
te

ri
a

),
h

e
ig

h
t

a
n

d
w

e
ig

h
t

(
“e

s
ti
m

a
ti
o

n
o

f
s
u

b
je

c
ts

’
b

a
s
a

l
m

e
ta

b
o

li
c

ra
te

”)
,

fo
u

r-
d

a
y

d
ie

t
re

c
o

rd
s
,

q
u

e
s
ti
o

n
n

a
ir
e

(h
o

u
s
e

h
o

ld
in

c
o

m
e

,
e

d
u

c
a

ti
o

n
le

v
e

l,
o

c
c
u

p
a

ti
o

n

a
n

d
e

th
n

ic
it
y
)

E
X

:
F

ib
e

r-
o

p
ti
c

li
g

h
t

s
o

u
rc

e
,

p
la

n
e

m
o

u
th

m
ir
ro

r,
s
ic

k
le

p
ro

b
e

,
a

t
s
c
h

o
o

ls

1
2
-

1
3

6
4

5
/5

0
4

C
a

m
p

a
in

e
t

a
l.

5
1
,

2
0

0
3

(M
e

lb
o

u
rn

e
),

A
u

s
tr

a
li
a

M
e

d
ia

n
ti
m

e
to

th
e

fi
rs

t
n

e
w

p
ro

x
im

a
l
c
a

ri
e

s
le

s
io

n
:

2
y
e

a
rs

In
d

iv
id

u
a

ls
w

it
h

n
o

p
ro

x
im

a
l
le

s
io

n
s

a
t

b
a

s
e

li
n

e
:

0
.0

3
1

s
u

rf
a

c
e

/y
e

a
r

In
d

iv
id

u
a

ls
w

it
h

3
p

ro
x
im

a
l
le

s
io

n
s

a
t

b
a

s
e

li
n

e
:

0
.0

7
7

s
u

rf
a

c
e

/y
e

a
r

In
c
id

e
n

c
e

o
f

th
e

fi
rs

t

n
e

w
p

ro
x
im

a
l
c
a

ri
e

s

le
s
io

n

S
A

,
P

R
1

0
V

B
:

P
ro

x
im

a
l
s
u

rf
a

c
e

s
s
ta

tu
s
:

c
a

ri
e

s-
fr

e
e

o
r

in
a

c
a

ri
e

s
s
ta

tu
s

E
X

:
O

n
ly

ra
d

io
g

ra
p

h
ic

e
x
a

m
in

a
ti
o

n

1
1

-

1
3

5
3

6
/5

3
4

S
te

n
lu

n
d

e
t

a
l.

5
0
,

2
0

0
2

(S
to

c
k
h

o
lm

),
S

w
e

d
e

n

M
e

a
n

D
F

S
in

c
re

m
e

n
t:

2
.0

6

A
s
th

m
a

ti
c

g
ro

u
p

s
:

n
o

s
ig

n
if
ic

a
n

tl
y

h
ig

h
e

r
c
a

ri
e

s

in
c
re

m
e

n
t

th
a

n
th

e
n

o
n
-a

s
th

m
a

ti
c

g
ro

u
p

D
F

S
in

c
re

m
e

n
t

C
S

,
M

W
3

V
B

:
C

a
ri
e

s
(W

H
O

c
ri
te

ri
a

),
p

a
re

n
ta

l
s
o

c
io

e
c
o

n
o

m
ic

le
v
e

l,
a

s
th

m
a

s
t

a
tu

s
.

(
N

o
te

:
2

0
6

in
d

iv
id

u
a

ls
h

a
v
in

g
n

o
h

is
to

ry
o

f
a

s
th

m
a

w
e

re
u

s
e

d
a

s
th

e
c
o

m
p

a
ris

o
n

g
ro

u
p

)

E
X

:
F

ib
e

r-
o

p
ti
c

li
g

h
t,

p
la

n
e

d
e

n
ta

l
m

ir
ro

r
a

n
d

s
ic

k
le

e
x
p

lo
re

r

1
5

9
7

6
/7

8
1

M
e

ld
ru

m
e

t

a
l.

4
9
,

2
0

0
1

(O
ta

g
o
),

N
e

w
Z

e
a

la
n

d

S
u

b
je

c
ts

w
it
h

n
o

c
a

v
it
ie

s
a

t
b

a
s
e

li
n

e
:

6
0

%
re

m
a

in
e

d

c
a

v
it
ie

s
-f

re
e

S
u

b
je

c
ts

w
it
h

g
in

g
iv

a
l
h

e
a

lt
h

a
t

b
a

s
e

li
n

e
:

4
7

%
re

m
a

in
e

d

h
e

a
lt
h

y
a

t
th

e
fi
n

a
l
e

x
a

m
in

a
ti
o

n

R
P

:
D

M
F

T
>

2
,

D
T

>
0

,
g

re
a

t
g

in
g

iv
a

l
in

fe
c
ti
o

n
,

g
e

n
d

e
r

(m
a

le
s
)

N
u

m
b

e
r

o
f
c
a

v
it
a

te
d

te
e

th
d

u
ri
n

g
th

e

p
e

ri
o

d

M
L

R
2

V
B

:
C

a
ri
e

s
(D

M
F

in
d

e
x
,

D
c
o

m
p

o
n

e
n

t)
,

g
in

g
iv

it
is

(C
P

IT
N

in
d

e
x
),

q
u

es
ti
o

n
n

a
ir
e

(i
n

fo
rm

a
ti
o

n

o
n

s
m

o
k
in

g
)

E
X

:
A

n
n

u
a

l
d

e
n

ta
l
e

x
a

m
in

a
ti
o

n
s

in
h

e
a

lt
h

c
e

n
te

rs
a

n
d

a
t

s
c
h

o
o

ls
,

r
a

d
io

g
ra

p
h

ic

e
x
a

m
in

a
ti
o

n
s

1
3

2
4

2
2

/1
4

7

2

U
tr

ia
in

e
n

e
t

a
l.

4
8
,

1
9

9
8

(K
o

k
o

la
,

P
ie

ta
rs

a
a

ri
,

V
a

a
s
a

,

S
e
in

ä
jo

k
i)

F
in

la
n

d

R
P

:
F

lu
o

ri
d

e
le

v
e

l
in

th
e

d
ri
n

k
in

g
w

a
te

r,
c
a

ri
e

s

p
re

v
a

le
n

c
e

,
n

u
m

b
e

r
o

f
c
a

v
it
a

te
d

c
a

ri
o

u
s

le
s
io

n
s
;

R
F

:

to
o

th
b

ru
s
h

in
g

fr
e

q
u

e
n

c
y

C
a

ri
e

s
p

ro
g

re
s
s
io

n
S

t,
W

,

C
S

,
M

L
R

1
V

B
:

C
a

ri
e

s
(D

M
F

S
in

d
e

x
–

W
H

O
c
ri
te

ri
a

),
d

e
n

ta
l
p

la
q

u
e

(P
a

ti
e

n
t

H
y
g

ie
n

e
P

e
rf

o
rm

a
n

c
e

-

P
H

P
in

d
e

x
),

m
a

lo
c
c
lu

s
io

n
(W

H
O

c
ri
te

ri
a

),
e

n
a

m
e

l
d

e
fe

c
ts

(D
e

v
e

lo
p

m
e

n
ta

l
D

e
fe

c
ts

o
f

E
n

a
m

e
l-
D

D
E

in
d

e
x
),

a
t

b
a

s
e

li
n

e
a

n
d

fi
n

a
l
e

x
a

m
in

a
ti
o

n
,

in
te

rv
ie

w
(a

g
e

,
g

e
n

d
e

r,

s
o

c
io

e
c
o

n
o

m
ic

s
ta

tu
s
,

ra
c
e

,
fl
u

o
ri
d

e
e

x
p

o
s
u

re
,

re
s
id

e
n

c
e

h
is

to
ri

e
s
,

p
re

v
e

n
ti
v
e

d
e

n
ta

l

h
e

a
lt
h

b
e

h
a

v
io

rs
,

u
s
e

o
f

d
e

n
ta

l
s
e

rv
ic

e
s
,

to
o

th
b

ru
s
h

in
g

fr
e

q
u

e
n

c
y
,

to
o

th
p

a
s
te

b
ra

n
d

u
s
e

d
,

p
ro

fe
s
s
io

n
a

ll
y

a
p

p
li
e

d
fl
u

o
ri
d

e
g

e
l
ri
n

s
e

s
,

v
a

rn
is

h
e

s
o

r
s
e

a
la

n
t

s
,

h
o

m
e

u
s
e

o
f

fl
u

o
ri
d

e

m
o

u
th

ri
n

s
e

s
,

u
s
e

o
f

fl
u

o
ri
d

e
s
u

p
p

le
m

e
n

ts
d

u
ri
n

g
e

a
rl
y

c
h

il
d

h
o

o
d

,
n

u
m

b
e

r
o

f
y
e

a
rs

o
f

re
s
id

e
n

c
e

in
th

e
re

s
e

a
rc

h
a

re
a

,
s
o

u
rc

e
s

o
f

d
o

m
e

s
ti
c

d
ri
n

k
in

g
w

a
te

r)

E
X

:
H

e
a

d
la

m
p

,
p

la
n

e
m

ir
ro

r,
c
a

ri
e

s
e

x
p

lo
re

r,
C

P
IT

N
p

ro
b

e
,

d
ry

in
g

a
t

d
e

n
ta

l
s
u

rg
e

ri
e

s
o

r

c
la

s
s
ro

o
m

s
a

t
s
c
h

o
o

ls
,

p
o

s
te

ri
o

r
b

it
e

w
in

g
s

1
2
-

1
6

4
2

0
/2

9
0

L
a

w
re

n
c
e

a
n

d

S
h

e
ih

a
m

4
7
,

1
9

9
7

(R
io

d
e

J
a

n
e

ir
o

,

M
a

n
-

g
a

ra
ti
b

a
a

n
d

A
n

g
ra

d
o

s

R
e

is
),

B
ra

z
il

R
P

:
In

c
ip

ie
n

t
c
a

ri
e

s
e

x
p

e
ri
e

n
c
e

;
R

F
:

s
a

li
v
a

ry

m
ic

ro
o

rg
a

n
is

m
s

In
c
ip

ie
n

t
+

m
a

n
if
e

s
t

le
s
io

n
s
:

c
o

m
b

in
e

d
v
a

lu
e

s
o

fS
n

a
n

d
S

p
a

ll
o

w
e

d
to

p
re

d
ic

t
c
a

ri
e

s
d

e
v
e

lo
p

m
e

n
t

in
th

e

m
a

jo
ri
ty

o
f

in
d

iv
id

u
a

ls

D
F

S
in

c
re

m
e

n
t

�
5

D
F

S
in

c
re

m
e

n
t

�
3

C
A

,

M
R

A
,

S
n
,

S
p

,
P

V

3
V

B
:

C
a

ri
e

s
(

c
a

v
it
a

ti
o

n
a

n
d

in
c
ip

ie
n

t
le

s
io

n
s
),

m
u

ta
n

s
s
tr

e
p

to
c
o

c
c
i
(M

S
)

a
n

d
la

c
to

b
a

c
il
lu

s

(L
B

)
c
o

u
n

ts
in

s
ti
m

u
la

te
d

s
a

li
v
a

E
X

:
C

li
n

ic
a

l
+

ra
d

io
g

ra
p

h
ic

e
x
a

m
in

a
ti
o

n

1
5
-

1
6

1
5

5
/8

7
B

ja
rn

a
s
o

n

a
n

d
K

ö
h

le
r4

6
,

1
9

9
7

,
S

w
e

d
e

n

M
a

in
re

s
u

lt
s

R
P

/R
F

§
O

u
tc

o
m

e
V

a
ri

a
b

le

D
a

ta

A
n

a
ly

s
is

¶

T
im e
‡

V
a

ri
a

b
le

s
c

o
ll

e
c

te
d

a
t

b
a

s
e

li
n

e
(V

B
)

E
x

a
m

in
a

ti
o

n
(E

X
)

A
g

e
†

S
a

m
p

le
*

A
u

th
o

r,
y

e
a

r

a
n

d
lo

c
a

l

R
P

:
o

ra
l
h

e
a

lt
h

c
o

n
c
e

rn
;

R
F

:
o

ra
l
h

e
a

lt
h

b
e

h
a

v
io

r

(f
o

r
o

n
ly

th
o

s
e

a
g

e
d

1
7

y
e

a
rs

a
t

b
a

s
e

li
n

e
)

D
if
fe

re
n

c
e

s
b

e
tw

e
e

n

s
c
o

re
s

fr
o

m
b

a
s
e

li
n

e

a
n

d
fi
n

a
l
e

x
a

m
in

a
ti
o

n

S
t,

M
L

R
3

V
B

:
C

a
ri
e

s
,

q
u

e
s
ti
o

n
n

a
ir
e

(d
e

n
ta

l
k
n

o
w

le
d

g
e

,
o

ra
l
h

e
a

lt
h

b
e

h
a

v
io

r,
o

ra
l
h

e
a

lt
h

c
a

re

a
tt

it
u

d
e

s
)

E
X

:
C

li
n

ic
a

l
a

n
d

ra
d

io
g

ra
p

h
ic

e
x
a

m
in

a
ti
o

n

1
4

,

1
7

,

2
0

2
0

2
P

o
o

rt
e

rm
a

n

e
t

a
l.

5
2
,

2
0

0
3

,
T

h
e

N
e

th
e

rl
a

n
d

s

M
e

a
n

D
F

S
a

n
d

D
M

F
S

in
c
re

m
e

n
t:

0
.9

8
a

n
d

1
.1

0
,

re
s
p

e
c
ti
v
e

ly

R
F

:
lo

w
s
u

g
a

r-
h

ig
h

s
ta

rc
h

fo
o

d
s

fo
r

c
a

ri
e

s
in

c
re

m
e

n
t

o
n

a
ll

s
u

rf
a

c
e

s
a

n
d

p
it

a
n

d
fi
s
s
u

re
s

s
u

rf
a

c
e

s

T
o

ta
l
D

M
F

S

in
c
re

m
e

n
t;

p
it

a
n

d

fi
s
s
u

re
D

M
F

in
c
re

m
e

n
t;

s
m

o
o

th

s
u

rf
a

c
e

D
M

F

in
c
re

m
e

n
t
�

1

M
L

R
2

V
B

:
C

a
ri
e

s
(W

H
O

c
ri
te

ri
a

),
h

e
ig

h
t

a
n

d
w

e
ig

h
t

(
“e

s
ti
m

a
ti
o

n
o

f
s
u

b
je

c
ts

’
b

a
s
a

l
m

e
ta

b
o

li
c

ra
te

”)
,

fo
u

r-
d

a
y

d
ie

t
re

c
o

rd
s
,

q
u

e
s
ti
o

n
n

a
ir
e

(h
o

u
s
e

h
o

ld
in

c
o

m
e

,
e

d
u

c
a

ti
o

n
le

v
e

l,
o

c
c
u

p
a

ti
o

n

a
n

d
e

th
n

ic
it
y
)

E
X

:
F

ib
e

r-
o

p
ti
c

li
g

h
t

s
o

u
rc

e
,

p
la

n
e

m
o

u
th

m
ir
ro

r,
s
ic

k
le

p
ro

b
e

,
a

t
s
c
h

o
o

ls

1
2
-

1
3

6
4

5
/5

0
4

C
a

m
p

a
in

e
t

a
l.

5
1
,

2
0

0
3

(M
e

lb
o

u
rn

e
),

A
u

s
tr

a
li
a

M
e

d
ia

n
ti
m

e
to

th
e

fi
rs

t
n

e
w

p
ro

x
im

a
l
c
a

ri
e

s
le

s
io

n
:

2
y
e

a
rs

In
d

iv
id

u
a

ls
w

it
h

n
o

p
ro

x
im

a
l
le

s
io

n
s

a
t

b
a

s
e

li
n

e
:

0
.0

3
1

s
u

rf
a

c
e

/y
e

a
r

In
d

iv
id

u
a

ls
w

it
h

3
p

ro
x
im

a
l
le

s
io

n
s

a
t

b
a

s
e

li
n

e
:

0
.0

7
7

s
u

rf
a

c
e

/y
e

a
r

In
c
id

e
n

c
e

o
f

th
e

fi
rs

t

n
e

w
p

ro
x
im

a
l
c
a

ri
e

s

le
s
io

n

S
A

,
P

R
1

0
V

B
:

P
ro

x
im

a
l
s
u

rf
a

c
e

s
s
ta

tu
s
:

c
a

ri
e

s-
fr

e
e

o
r

in
a

c
a

ri
e

s
s
ta

tu
s

E
X

:
O

n
ly

ra
d

io
g

ra
p

h
ic

e
x
a

m
in

a
ti
o

n

1
1

-

1
3

5
3

6
/5

3
4

S
te

n
lu

n
d

e
t

a
l.

5
0
,

2
0

0
2

(S
to

c
k
h

o
lm

),
S

w
e

d
e

n

M
e

a
n

D
F

S
in

c
re

m
e

n
t:

2
.0

6

A
s
th

m
a

ti
c

g
ro

u
p

s
:

n
o

s
ig

n
if
ic

a
n

tl
y

h
ig

h
e

r
c
a

ri
e

s

in
c
re

m
e

n
t

th
a

n
th

e
n

o
n
-a

s
th

m
a

ti
c

g
ro

u
p

D
F

S
in

c
re

m
e

n
t

C
S

,
M

W
3

V
B

:
C

a
ri
e

s
(W

H
O

c
ri
te

ri
a

),
p

a
re

n
ta

l
s
o

c
io

e
c
o

n
o

m
ic

le
v
e

l,
a

s
th

m
a

s
t

a
tu

s
.

(
N

o
te

:
2

0
6

in
d

iv
id

u
a

ls
h

a
v
in

g
n

o
h

is
to

ry
o

f
a

s
th

m
a

w
e

re
u

s
e

d
a

s
th

e
c
o

m
p

a
ris

o
n

g
ro

u
p

)

E
X

:
F

ib
e

r-
o

p
ti
c

li
g

h
t,

p
la

n
e

d
e

n
ta

l
m

ir
ro

r
a

n
d

s
ic

k
le

e
x
p

lo
re

r

1
5

9
7

6
/7

8
1

M
e

ld
ru

m
e

t

a
l.

4
9
,

2
0

0
1

(O
ta

g
o
),

N
e

w
Z

e
a

la
n

d

S
u

b
je

c
ts

w
it
h

n
o

c
a

v
it
ie

s
a

t
b

a
s
e

li
n

e
:

6
0

%
re

m
a

in
e

d

c
a

v
it
ie

s
-f

re
e

S
u

b
je

c
ts

w
it
h

g
in

g
iv

a
l
h

e
a

lt
h

a
t

b
a

s
e

li
n

e
:

4
7

%
re

m
a

in
e

d

h
e

a
lt
h

y
a

t
th

e
fi
n

a
l
e

x
a

m
in

a
ti
o

n

R
P

:
D

M
F

T
>

2
,

D
T

>
0

,
g

re
a

t
g

in
g

iv
a

l
in

fe
c
ti
o

n
,

g
e

n
d

e
r

(m
a

le
s
)

N
u

m
b

e
r

o
f
c
a

v
it
a

te
d

te
e

th
d

u
ri
n

g
th

e

p
e

ri
o

d

M
L

R
2

V
B

:
C

a
ri
e

s
(D

M
F

in
d

e
x
,

D
c
o

m
p

o
n

e
n

t)
,

g
in

g
iv

it
is

(C
P

IT
N

in
d

e
x
),

q
u

es
ti
o

n
n

a
ir
e

(i
n

fo
rm

a
ti
o

n

o
n

s
m

o
k
in

g
)

E
X

:
A

n
n

u
a

l
d

e
n

ta
l
e

x
a

m
in

a
ti
o

n
s

in
h

e
a

lt
h

c
e

n
te

rs
a

n
d

a
t

s
c
h

o
o

ls
,

r
a

d
io

g
ra

p
h

ic

e
x
a

m
in

a
ti
o

n
s

1
3

2
4

2
2

/1
4

7

2

U
tr

ia
in

e
n

e
t

a
l.

4
8
,

1
9

9
8

(K
o

k
o

la
,

P
ie

ta
rs

a
a

ri
,

V
a

a
s
a

,

S
e
in

ä
jo

k
i)

F
in

la
n

d

R
P

:
F

lu
o

ri
d

e
le

v
e

l
in

th
e

d
ri
n

k
in

g
w

a
te

r,
c
a

ri
e

s

p
re

v
a

le
n

c
e

,
n

u
m

b
e

r
o

f
c
a

v
it
a

te
d

c
a

ri
o

u
s

le
s
io

n
s
;

R
F

:

to
o

th
b

ru
s
h

in
g

fr
e

q
u

e
n

c
y

C
a

ri
e

s
p

ro
g

re
s
s
io

n
S

t,
W

,

C
S

,
M

L
R

1
V

B
:

C
a

ri
e

s
(D

M
F

S
in

d
e

x
–

W
H

O
c
ri
te

ri
a

),
d

e
n

ta
l
p

la
q

u
e

(P
a

ti
e

n
t

H
y
g

ie
n

e
P

e
rf

o
rm

a
n

c
e

-

P
H

P
in

d
e

x
),

m
a

lo
c
c
lu

s
io

n
(W

H
O

c
ri
te

ri
a

),
e

n
a

m
e

l
d

e
fe

c
ts

(D
e

v
e

lo
p

m
e

n
ta

l
D

e
fe

c
ts

o
f

E
n

a
m

e
l-
D

D
E

in
d

e
x
),

a
t

b
a

s
e

li
n

e
a

n
d

fi
n

a
l
e

x
a

m
in

a
ti
o

n
,

in
te

rv
ie

w
(a

g
e

,
g

e
n

d
e

r,

s
o

c
io

e
c
o

n
o

m
ic

s
ta

tu
s
,

ra
c
e

,
fl
u

o
ri
d

e
e

x
p

o
s
u

re
,

re
s
id

e
n

c
e

h
is

to
ri

e
s
,

p
re

v
e

n
ti
v
e

d
e

n
ta

l

h
e

a
lt
h

b
e

h
a

v
io

rs
,

u
s
e

o
f

d
e

n
ta

l
s
e

rv
ic

e
s
,

to
o

th
b

ru
s
h

in
g

fr
e

q
u

e
n

c
y
,

to
o

th
p

a
s
te

b
ra

n
d

u
s
e

d
,

p
ro

fe
s
s
io

n
a

ll
y

a
p

p
li
e

d
fl
u

o
ri
d

e
g

e
l
ri
n

s
e

s
,

v
a

rn
is

h
e

s
o

r
s
e

a
la

n
t

s
,

h
o

m
e

u
s
e

o
f

fl
u

o
ri
d

e

m
o

u
th

ri
n

s
e

s
,

u
s
e

o
f

fl
u

o
ri
d

e
s
u

p
p

le
m

e
n

ts
d

u
ri
n

g
e

a
rl
y

c
h

il
d

h
o

o
d

,
n

u
m

b
e

r
o

f
y
e

a
rs

o
f

re
s
id

e
n

c
e

in
th

e
re

s
e

a
rc

h
a

re
a

,
s
o

u
rc

e
s

o
f

d
o

m
e

s
ti
c

d
ri
n

k
in

g
w

a
te

r)

E
X

:
H

e
a

d
la

m
p

,
p

la
n

e
m

ir
ro

r,
c
a

ri
e

s
e

x
p

lo
re

r,
C

P
IT

N
p

ro
b

e
,

d
ry

in
g

a
t

d
e

n
ta

l
s
u

rg
e

ri
e

s
o

r

c
la

s
s
ro

o
m

s
a

t
s
c
h

o
o

ls
,

p
o

s
te

ri
o

r
b

it
e

w
in

g
s

1
2
-

1
6

4
2

0
/2

9
0

L
a

w
re

n
c
e

a
n

d

S
h

e
ih

a
m

4
7
,

1
9

9
7

(R
io

d
e

J
a

n
e

ir
o

,

M
a

n
-

g
a

ra
ti
b

a
a

n
d

A
n

g
ra

d
o

s

R
e

is
),

B
ra

z
il

R
P

:
In

c
ip

ie
n

t
c
a

ri
e

s
e

x
p

e
ri
e

n
c
e

;
R

F
:

s
a

li
v
a

ry

m
ic

ro
o

rg
a

n
is

m
s

In
c
ip

ie
n

t
+

m
a

n
if
e

s
t

le
s
io

n
s
:

c
o

m
b

in
e

d
v
a

lu
e

s
o

fS
n

a
n

d
S

p
a

ll
o

w
e

d
to

p
re

d
ic

t
c
a

ri
e

s
d

e
v
e

lo
p

m
e

n
t

in
th

e

m
a

jo
ri
ty

o
f

in
d

iv
id

u
a

ls

D
F

S
in

c
re

m
e

n
t

�
5

D
F

S
in

c
re

m
e

n
t

�
3

C
A

,

M
R

A
,

S
n
,

S
p

,
P

V

3
V

B
:

C
a

ri
e

s
(

c
a

v
it
a

ti
o

n
a

n
d

in
c
ip

ie
n

t
le

s
io

n
s
),

m
u

ta
n

s
s
tr

e
p

to
c
o

c
c
i
(M

S
)

a
n

d
la

c
to

b
a

c
il
lu

s

(L
B

)
c
o

u
n

ts
in

s
ti
m

u
la

te
d

s
a

li
v
a

E
X

:
C

li
n

ic
a

l
+

ra
d

io
g

ra
p

h
ic

e
x
a

m
in

a
ti
o

n

1
5
-

1
6

1
5

5
/8

7
B

ja
rn

a
s
o

n

a
n

d
K

ö
h

le
r4

6
,

1
9

9
7

,
S

w
e

d
e

n

M
a

in
re

s
u

lt
s

R
P

/R
F

§
O

u
tc

o
m

e
V

a
ri

a
b

le

D
a

ta

A
n

a
ly

s
is

¶

T
im e
‡

V
a

ri
a

b
le

s
c

o
ll

e
c

te
d

a
t

b
a

s
e

li
n

e
(V

B
)

E
x

a
m

in
a

ti
o

n
(E

X
)

A
g

e
†

S
a

m
p

le
*

A
u

th
o

r,
y

e
a

r

a
n

d
lo

c
a

l



1689

been a strong variable in identifying children at risk
because it shows that the oral environment was prone to
develop caries. Sugar consumption has played an important
role in caries risk assessment in young children, as
previously described for infants. Others variables related
to oral hygiene also showed their significance in
identifying children at risk. The presence of plaque on
teeth, due to the lack and/or deficiency in toothbrushing,
offers substrates to cariogenic bacteria favoring caries
development.
Schoolchildren have been the most studied group in caries
risk assessment (Table 3). From 1997 to 2007, 19 papers
were selected and reviewed. Study duration ranged from 1
to 8 years and, as usual, dental variables were collected at
baseline in all the papers. Other variables that also were
collected in a considerable number of studies were:
socioeconomic, microbiological and behavioral
characteristics. Among the studies that used regression
techniques (n=16) in statistical analysis the predominant
RP was past caries experience followed by others related
to socioeconomic level. The main RFs were the variables
related to oral hygiene. As previously reported, past caries
experience detected at baseline is the variable that best
indicates those at risk for developing new lesions and poor
oral hygiene increases the probability of caries increment.
Seven studies involving caries risk assessment in
adolescents (Table 4) were found from 1997 to 2007. The
researchers followed-up the participants from 1 to 10 years,
and collected data on dental, behavioral, demographic,
socioeconomic, anthropometric, medical and
microbiological variables and dietary habits. Caries
experience at baseline was the main RP obtained in
regression techniques.
In general, review of the papers demonstrated that past
dental caries was the risk predictor of the future disease for
all age groups. Others important RP include socioeconomic
level and fluoride usage. The risk factors obtained in
regression analyses were variables related to oral hygiene,
sugar consumption and microbiological counts.
Collecting data on dental caries is very easy and may
help in caries risk assessment. However, the disease has to
be present. Others risk factors such as sugar consumption
and oral hygiene related characteristics are also not difficult
to gather information on them from a community point of
view and help dental professionals in selecting those caries-
free individuals at risk. In fact, it has been suggested that
in caries risk assessment, variables such as caries experience
and severity, plaque index, fluoride use, socioeconomic
level status should be collected before the application of
the test for e.g. mutans streptococcus15. As reported by
Kopycka-Kedzierawski and Billings16, “a caries risk
assessment protocol must involve the use of measures that
are easily obtained, widely accepted, simple to use,
reproducible and cost-effective”.
It is important to take into consideration that this study

presents some limitations such as the absence of quality
criteria for selecting the papers (no score for papers), and
the selection of studies mainly from Medline database. In
spite of its limitations, by reviewing the published papers
over the last 10 years, this study could clearly demonstrate
that past caries experience has been the predominant
predictor for future caries in subjects from 0 to 18 years of
age. Therefore, those with previous contact with the disease
should receive good oral health education, preventive
measures and should be made aware that they are subjects
at risk for developing caries. Continuous monitored is
necessary to prevent the onset of new lesions.
On the other hand, as discussed by Tinanoff17, it would be
unwise to wait for the presence of caries to know which
subject will be more susceptible to develop lesions in the
future. Further studies involving a large number of caries-
free individuals should be conducted on caries risk
assessment. Nevertheless, the use of other variables such
as dietary habits, including sugar consumption, and
toothbrushing habits or presence of dental plaque may
help identifying those caries-free subjects who might be
more prone to have new carious lesions in the future.
In conclusion, the variables related to caries experience
collected at the initial examination continue to be the
main risk predictor of caries increment. Moreover, those
related to sugar consumption and oral hygiene could
identify subjects at caries risk.

R e f e r e n c e s

1. Aoba T, Fejerskov O. Dental fluorosis: chemistry and biology.
Crit Rev Oral Biol Med. 2002; 13: 155-70.

2. Fejerskov O. Strategies in the design of preventive programs.
Adv Dent Res. 1995; 9: 82-8.

3. Burt BA. Prevention policies in the light of the changed distribution
of dental caries. Acta Odontol Scand. 1998; 56: 179-86.

4. Giannoni M, D’Amario M, Gatto R, Barone A. Some tools for
the identification of high caries risk individuals. A review.
Minerva Stomatol. 2005; 54: 111-27.

5. Douglass CW. Risk assessment in dentistry. J Dent Educ. 1998;
62: 756-61.

6. Fontana M, Zero DT. Assessing patients’ caries risk. J Am Dent
Assoc. 2006; 137: 1231-9.

7. Burt BA. Definitions of risk. J Dent Educ. 2001; 65: 1007-8.
8. Beck JD. Risk revisited. Community Dent Oral Epidemiol. 1998;

26: 220-5.
9. Powell LV. Caries prediction: a review of the literature.

Community Dent Oral Epidemiol. 1998; 26: 361-71.
10. Moss ME, Zero DT. An overview of caries risk assessment, and

its potential utility. J Dent Educ. 1995; 59: 932-40.
11. Slade GD, Caplan DJ. Impact of analytic conventions on

outcome measures in two longitudinal studies of dental caries.
Community Dent Oral Epidemiol. 2000; 28: 202-10.

12. Pienihäkkinen K, Jokela J, Alanen P. Assessment of caries risk
in preschool children. Caries Res. 2004; 38: 156-62.

13. Ollila P, Larmas M. A seven-year survival analysis of caries
onset in primary second molars and permanent first molars in
different caries risk groups determined at age two years. Acta
Odontol Scand. 2007; 65: 29-35.

14. Zero DT. Sugars - the arch criminal? Caries Res. 2004; 38: 277-85.

Braz J Oral Sci. 7(27):1682-1690                              An overview of caries risk assessment in 0-18 year-olds over the last ten years (1997-2007)



1690

15. Petti S, Hausen HW. Caries prediction by multiple salivary mutans
streptococcal counts in caries-free children with different levels
of fluoride exposure, oral hygiene and sucrose intake. Caries
Res. 2000; 34: 380-7.

16. Kopycka-Kedzierawski DT, Billings RJ. A longitudinal study
of caries onset in initially caries-free children and baseline
salivary mutans streptococci levels: a Kaplan-Meier survival
analysis. Community Dent Oral Epidemiol. 2004; 32: 201-9.

17. Tinanoff N. Critique of evolving methods for caries risk
assessment. J Dent Educ. 1995; 59: 980-5.

18. Yonezu T, Machida Y. Caries development in children from
1.5 to 3 years of age: a longitudinal study. Bull Tokyo Dent
Coll. 1998; 39: 25-9.

19. Mattos-Graner RO, Smith DJ, King WF, Mayer MPA. Water-
insoluble glucan synthesis by mutans streptococcal strains
correlates with caries incidence in 12- to 30-month-old children.
J Dent Res. 2000; 79: 1371-7.

20. Mattila ML, Paunio P, Rautava P, Ojanlatva A, Sillanpää M.
Changes in dental health and dental health habits from 3 to 5
years of age. J Public Health Dent. 1998; 58: 270-4.

21. Ollila P, Niemelä M, Uhari M, Larmas M. Prolonged pacifier-sucking
and use of a nursing bottle at night: possible risk factors for dental
caries in children. Acta Odontol Scand. 1998; 56: 233-7.

22. Thibodeau EA, O’Sullivan DM. Salivary mutans streptococci
and caries development in the primary and mixed dentitions of
children. Community Dent Oral Epidemiol. 1999; 27: 406-12.

23. Rodrigues CS, Sheiham A. The relationships between dietary
guidelines, sugar intake and caries in primary teeth in low
income Brazilian 3-year-olds: a longitudinal study. Int J Paediatr
Dent. 2000; 10: 47-55.

24. Li Y, Wang W. Predicting caries in permanent teeth from caries
in primary teeth: an eight-year cohort study. J Dent Res. 2002;
81: 561-6.

25. Peretz B, Ram D, Azo E, Efrat Y. Preschool caries as an indicator
of future caries: a longitudinal study. Pediatr Dent. 2003; 25:
114-8.

26. Seki M, Karakama F, Terajima T, Ichikawa Y, Ozaki T, Yoshida
S et al. Evaluation of mutans streptococci in plaque and saliva:
correlation with caries development in preschool children. J
Dent. 2003; 31: 283-90.

27. Skeie MS, Raadal M, Strand GV, Espelid I. Caries in primary
teeth at 5 and 10 years of age: a longitudinal study. Eur J
Paediatr Dent. 2004; 5: 194-202.

28. Skeie MS, Raadal M, Strand GV, Espelid I. The relationship
between caries in the primary dentition at 5 years of age and
permanent dentition at 10 years of age - a longitudinal study.
Int J Paediatr Dent. 2006; 16: 152-60.

29. Kirstilä V, Häkkinen P, Jentsch H, Vilja P, Tenovuo J.
Longitudinal analysis of the association of human salivary
antimicrobial agents with caries increment and cariogenic micro-
organisms: a two-year cohort study. J Dent Res. 1998; 77: 73-80.

30. Splieth C, Bernhardt O. Prediction of caries development for
molar fissures with semiquantitative mutans streptococci tests.
Eur J Oral Sci. 1999; 107: 164-9.

31. Vanderas AP, Manetas K, Papagiannoulis L. Caries increment
in children and urinary catecholamines: findings at one-year. J
Dent Child. 2000; 67: 355-9.

32. Wandera A, Bhakta S, Barker T. Caries prediction and indicators
using a pediatric risk assessment teaching tool. J Dent Child.
2000; 67: 408-12.

33. Mattila ML, Rautava P, Paunio P, Ojanlatva A, Hyssälä L,
Helenius H et al. Caries experience and caries increments at 10
years of age. Caries Res. 2001; 35: 435-41.

34. Vanobbergen J, Martens L, Lesaffre E, Bogaerts K, Declerck
D. The value of a baseline caries risk assessment model in the

primary dentition for the prediction of caries incidence in the
permanent dentition. Caries Res. 2001; 35: 442-50.

35. van Palenstein Helderman WH, van’t Hof MA, van Loveren C.
Prognosis of caries increment with past caries experience
variables. Caries Res. 2001; 35: 186-92.

36. van Palenstein Helderman WH, Mikx FHM, Van’t Hof MA,
Truin GJ, Kalsbeek H. The value of salivary bacterial counts as
a supplement to past caries experience as caries predictor in
children. Eur J Oral Sci. 2001; 109: 312-5.

37. Pearce EIF, Dong YM, Yue L, Gao XJ, Purdie GL, Wang JD.
Plaque minerals in the prediction of caries activity. Community
Dent Oral Epidemiol. 2002; 30: 61-9.

38. Källestål C, Wall S. Socio-economic effect on caries. Incidence
data among Swedish 12-14-year-olds. Community Dent Oral
Epidemiol. 2002; 30: 108-14.

39. Vanderas AP, Kavvadia K, Papagiannoulis L. Development of
caries in permanent first molars adjacent to primary second
molars with interproximal caries: four-year prospective
radiographic study. Pediatr Dent. 2004; 26: 362-8.

40. Leroy R, Bogaerts K, Lesaffre E, Declerck D. Multivariate
survival analysis for the identification of factors associated with
cavity formation in permanent first molars. Eur J Oral Sci.
2005; 113: 145-52.

41. David J, Raadal M, Wang NJ, Strand GV. Caries increment and
prediction from 12 to 18 years of age: a follow-up study. Eur
Arch Paediatr Dent. 2006; 7: 31-7.

42. Jeppesen BA, Foldspang A. Can the development of new dental
caries in Danish schoolchildren be predicted from surveillance
data in the School Dental Service? Community Dent Oral
Epidemiol. 2006; 34: 205-12.

43. Tagliaferro EPS, Pereira AC, Meneghim MC, Ambrosano GMB.
Assessment of dental caries predictors in a seven-year
longitudinal study. J Public Health Dent. 2006; 66: 169-73.

44. Vallejos-Sánchez AA, Medina-Solís CE, Casanova-Rosado JF,
Maupomé G, Minaya-Sánchez M, Pérez-Olivares S. Caries
increment in the permanent dentition of Mexican children in
relation to prior caries experience on permanent and primary
dentitions. J Dent. 2006; 34: 709-15.

45. Zhang Q, Bian Z, Fan M, van Palenstein Helderman WH. Salivary
mutans streptococci counts as indicators in caries risk assessment
in 6-7-year-old Chinese children. J Dent. 2007; 35: 177-80.

46. Bjarnason S, Köhler B. Caries risk assessment in adolescents.
Swed Dent J. 1997; 21: 41-8.

47. Lawrence HP, Sheiham A. Caries progression in 12- to 16-
year-old schoolchildren in fluoridated and fluoride-deficient
areas in Brazil. Community Dent Oral Epidemiol. 1997; 25:
402-11.

48. Utriainen P, Pahkala K, Kentala J, Laippala P, Mattila K. Changes
in the oral health of adolescents treated by the Finnish public
dental services between the ages of 13 and 15 years. Community
Dent Oral Epidemiol. 1998; 26: 149-54.

49. Meldrum AM, Thomson WM, Drummond BK, Sears MR. Is
asthma a risk factor for dental caries? Findings from a cohort
study. Caries Res. 2001; 35: 235-9.

50. Stenlund H, Mejàre I, Källestål C. Caries rates related to
approximal caries at ages 11-13: a 10-year follow-up study in
Sweden. J Dent Res. 2002; 81: 455-8.

51. Campain AC, Morgan MV, Evans RW, Ugoni A, Adams GG,
Conn JA et al. Sugar-starch combinations in food and the
relationship to dental caries in low-risk adolescents. Eur J Oral
Sci. 2003; 111: 316-25.

52. Poorterman JHG, Aartman IHA, Kieft JA, Kalsbeek H.
Approximal caries increment: a three-year longitudinal
radiographic study. Int Dent J. 2003; 53: 269-74.

Braz J Oral Sci. 7(27):1682-1690                              An overview of caries risk assessment in 0-18 year-olds over the last ten years (1997-2007)