001.docx CHEMICAL ENGINEERING TRANSACTIONS VOL. 83, 2021 A publication of The Italian Association of Chemical Engineering Online at www.cetjournal.it Guest Editors: Jeng Shiun Lim, Nor Alafiza Yunus, Jiří Jaromír Klemeš Copyright © 2021, AIDIC Servizi S.r.l. ISBN 978-88-95608-81-5; ISSN 2283-9216 Impact Assessment on Cycle Super Highway Schemes Donggyun Kua, Juhyeon Kwaka, Sungyong Naa, Shinhae Leeb, Seungjae Leea,* aDepartment of Transportation Engineering, University of Seoul, Korea bDepartment of Transportation Systems Research, The Seoul Institute, Korea koo2646@naver.com Recently, Seoul has been pushing for eco-friendly transportation policies to reduce emission and improve environment, including restrictions on the use of cars and the introduction of shared bicycles. The government introduced the shared bicycles, of which the demand has been steadily increasing. The government is planning to introduce Cycling Rapid Transit (CRT) for the enhancement of the shared bicycle program. However, by applying the standard feasibility assessment, it is difficult to secure the feasibility of many eco-friendly measures, such as CRT. This research intends to promote the eco-friendly transportation by reflecting other benefit indicators represented by the wider impact parameters, such as health benefits. Based on the Origin/Destination data of the shared bicycles users, this study conducted a demand forecast estimation for various scenario considering the conversion of existing means to short-distance traffic, and analysed the benefits reflecting the wider impact. The study considered cycling’s health benefits, which are estimated by the HEAT (Health Economic Assessment Tool) and the SART (The Sickness Absence Reduction Tool) used by WHO. The CRT introduction analysis was conducted on three sites, and the analysis showed that if human life value is not reflected, B/C is found to be at a minimum of 0.47 and the feasibility of the project cannot be secured with the existing methodology. When wider impact was applied, B/C was shown up to 3.29. Through this study, an efficient and more adequate feasibility methodology for evaluating the eco-friendly transportation policies was suggested, as the research intended to present the development direction for the analysis of health benefits suitable for domestic analysis and the selection of reference values. 1. Introduction Transportation is shown to have a lot of influence on air pollution, nevertheless, the demand continues to increase (Fan et al., 2018). As a result, the interest to solve transportation environmental problems has been risen in various cities, as result they have adopted Traffic Demand Management (TDM) policies, such as Low Emissions Zone (LEZ), which has being implemented in Europe (Ku et al., 2020). In addition, many efforts have been made to introduce an eco-friendly transportation in various regions, but there is no clear and efficient methodology to evaluate the feasibility of the project. Especially that the bicycle-related costs are not estimated separately in bicycle-related projects (Weigand et al., 2013). Researchers are conducting various investigations that permit to consider the impacts of pedestrian and bicycle-related benefits (Kim et al., 2020). The OECD also analyses the benefits of projects in policy, social and macroeconomic aspects, reflecting the benefits of passers- by and environmental benefits. WebTAG also includes noise, air quality, urban landscape, physical health and reliability as a wider impact. The World Health Organization (WHO) applies HEAT (Health Economic Assessment Tool) and the Transport for London (TfL) applies SART (The Sickness Absence Reduction Tool) to measure the health benefits. HEAT is the calculation of economic benefits by converting the value of human life resulting from reduced mortality due to the increased physical activity (Kahlmeier et al., 2017). SART measures the value of productivity growth based on the number reduced days in absenteeism, which due to the increased physical activity (Transport for London, 2015). In this study, in order to promote eco-friendly transportation, the purpose of this study is to present a more effective methodology for evaluating the feasibility of eco-friendly transportation policies by improving the existing feasibility assessment methods. The analysis was based on focusing on health benefits among the wider impacts, different from other studies. The results of this study are expected to support promote eco-friendly transportation policies. DOI: 10.3303/CET2183031 Paper Received: 30/06/2020; Revised: 13/08/2020; Accepted: 15/08/2020 Please cite this article as: Ku D., Kwak J., Na S., Lee S., Lee S., 2021, Impact Assessment on Cycle Super Highway Schemes, Chemical Engineering Transactions, 83, 181-186 DOI:10.3303/CET2183031 181 2. Methodology 2.1 Estimation of CRT demand using big data for shared bicycles The world recognizes walking and cycling as a major means of transportation for urban transport. They are examining the effects of investment by utilizing various economic models. Various investment assessment cases are shown in Table 1. Table 1: A Case Study on the Investment Evaluation of Pedestrian and Bicycle A Case Study Summary Utility / Application Result Vermont Agency of Transportation: Economic Impact of Bicycling and Walking, 2012 - Industry-linked model - Consider employment rates, GDP, consumption, relative costs, compensation, jobs - Allow multi-layered spatial coverage analysis - Time-intensive - Cost: Depends on the scale of the analysis - B/C North Carolina Department of Transportation: "Economic Impact of Bicycle Facilities," 2004 - To measure the cumulative impact of the economy in whole or in certain parts - Provides various results applicable to bicycle and pedestrian projects - Static: No change over time - Cost: Depends on the application of software or data - Secondary impact on sales, tax revenues, occupations, and industrial suppliers - Effects of generation change Virginia Department of Transportation: Multi-modal Transportation Plans - Web-based dynamic analysis - Consider economic analysis, cost-benefit analysis, and public/private financial analysis for all means of transportation - - Impact on the economy - Return on investment - Cash Flow - Demographics - Performance measurement - Social benefits Federal Highway Administration/Vol pe Center: Report to Congress on the Outcomes of the NTPP, 2012; and NTPP 2014 Report - Estimate economic benefits by utilizing reduced mortality from physical activity - Useful for evaluating the benefits of bicycle riding - No correction has been made for reduced economic costs due to reduced mortality from increased walking - Analyze specific time or time series data - Maximum annual benefits - Average annual benefits - The present value of annual benefits Europe - Attention is paid to the phenomenon that causes delays between means of transportation in limited road space - Traffic analysis model of macro or micro should be pre-built - B/C - Multi-standard analysis and weighted benefit analysis In this research, the network of Seoul was established to analyse the effect of introducing the CRT, by estimating the demand through the O/D data by mean of transportation. Based on the records of rental and return of shared bicycles operated in Seoul, the research estimated the O/D data for bicycle mode. And for the shared bicycle data, since the traffic volume was calculated based on the rental office, the study could estimate the O/D data by zones. In addition, passenger O/D data by means of transportation was used to analyse the amount of other passenger switching to biking. The prediction of bicycle demand was based on the premise that the future demand for newly supplied bicycle roads will be converted to the same level as the existing bicycle user's use function. 2.2 Method for calculating benefit by applying wider impact The benefits indicators of eco-friendly transportation are summarized in the table below, through a comprehensive investigation of different existing Korean and international literature, including papers, reports, and guidelines, related to walking and cycling. Among these benefits, the focus was on the health benefits, and through an exhaustive review of the applicability of such data for analysis in Korean context. The benefits covered by existing studies and guidelines related to walking or cycling are presented in Table 2. 182 Table 2: Benefit indicators in the literature related to the benefit calculation case Author (year) Reducing travel time Reducing driving cost Reducing environme ntal cost Reducing greenhouse gases Reducing noise Reducing traffic accident Health promotion Reducing parking cost Walking and Bicycle Litman (2018, 2011) ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ WHO (2017, 2014) ○ ○ ○ ○ Zulkifli (2010) ○ ○ ○ FHWA (2015) ○ ○ Kahlmeier (2010) ○ Walking DfT (2014) ○ Litman (2003) ○ ○ Bicycle Belter (2016) ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ Deenihan (2014) ○ Li and Faghri (2014) ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ Kuster (2013) ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ Murphy (2013) ○ ○ ○ ○ The benefits of promoting physical health were divided into two categories: social benefits and reducing disease benefit. The social benefits are considered a consequence of the reduction of the number of absenteeism days and sickness days. The average number of absenteeism days for people who use physical energy such as walking and bicycles is about 6 % less than those who do not (WHO, 2003). As the number of absent days has decreased, the time available for productive activities has increased. On the other hand, the benefit of disease reduction is calculated based on the distance of traffic instead of the travel time of pedestrian, due to the difficulty in measuring pedestrian's travel time. Then, the social benefits resulting from this are calculated according to the equation Eq(1). Social Benefit = 𝐴𝐴 × 𝜌𝜌𝐴𝐴 × 8 × 𝑃𝑃w × 𝑄𝑄𝑤𝑤 (1) Where A is average number of absence days from work, 𝜌𝜌𝐴𝐴 is rate of reduction in the number of absence days (%), 8 is average daily working hour, 𝑃𝑃w is time value of business trip (USD/h), 𝑄𝑄𝑤𝑤 is the number of pedestrians and cyclists. Next, the benefits of reducing disease are measured through the effect of reducing mortality, due to the increase in the amount of physical activities (walking and cycling). In most studies, the health value of biking is either equal to or a half of the health value of walking. The PWC (2011) rated the health value of the bicycle the highest at 1.283 USD/km. While New Zealand ranked the highest value of walking at 2.387 USD/km. The results of the reviewed studies on the health benefits of walking and cycling are shown in Table 3. Table 3: Health benefit in references Cycling (USD/km) Walking (USD/km) AECOM (2010) 0.071 - Marsden Jacob Associates (2009) 0.431 0.431 WHO (HEAT tool) (2012) 0.939 2.267 New Zealand Transport Authority (2010) 1.193 2.387 PWC (2011) 1.283 1.924 Australia (NSW, 2018) 1.190 1.790 183 since there are no similar studies in Korea, the basic unit used in Britain and Denmark has been applied to measure the reduce mortality due to walking. According to the results of a study conducted in Copenhagen (Andersen et al., 2000), the total distance of travel was 0.173/1,000 person-km to calculate the benefits of disease reduction according to the formula(refer to Eq(2), (3)) below. Where VMCS is the benefits of disease reduction (USD), Dw is total travel distance of pedestrians and cyclists (person-km), M is mortality rate (%), 𝜌𝜌𝑀𝑀 is basic unit of mortality rate, 𝑃𝑃𝑀𝑀 is social cost of mortality (USD). 3. Result and discussions 3.1 Scenario settings The existing benefit calculation method could be maintained in order to maintain consistency in the case of the same type as those covered by the current guidelines, which identified specific benefits indicator of eco-friendly transportation. In addition, a scenario-by-case analysis was performed, assuming that the demand for short- distance travel was changed following the implementation of the project in order to reflect the ratio of switching between transportation modes, while considering cycling. The conversion volume of demand was assumed to be 30 % based, and scenarios were divided step by step. The setting by scenario is shown in Table 4. Table 4: Project effectiveness settings by scenario Basic Plan Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Project effectiveness 30 % short- distance travel switching 10 % short- distance travel switching 20 % short- distance travel switching 40 % short- distance travel switching 50 % short- distance travel switching 3.2 Estimation of demand using big data for shared bicycles The future demand was estimated using the established network and O/D data. Based on the basic plan, the estimated future demand for each project is shown in Table 5 Table 5: Results of demand estimates by scenario 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Cheonggye Stream street 4,988 5,013 5,270 4,897 4,596 4,594 Mapo main street 4,859 4,939 4,978 4,855 4,696 4,558 Han river main street 5,364 5,452 5,495 5,359 5,184 5,031 As a result of the analysis of changes in traffic patterns following the implementation of the project, it was found that not only the project route but also the surrounding bicycle routes’ traffic has increased in case of the basic plan, in which 30 % of short-distance traffic within 4 km of Cheonggye Stream street is converted. The mentioned change in traffic patterns is shown in Figure 1. Figure 1: Results of Traffic Pattern Change Analysis of (a) after mode transfer, (b) before mode transfer 𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉 = 𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵 − 𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝐴𝐴𝐵𝐵𝐴𝐴𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵 𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉𝑉 = 𝐷𝐷𝑤𝑤 × 𝜌𝜌𝑀𝑀 × 𝑃𝑃𝑀𝑀 (2) (3) 184 3.3 Estimating the benefits applying wider impact In order to calculate the benefits, an area where the changes in traffic patterns directly occur, due to the implementation of the project, was selected and designated as an area of influence. The benefits consist of the benefits of reducing travel time, operating time, traffic accidents, environmental costs, and parking costs, while improving physical health. In the case of the basic plan of the project, the benefits estimated for each project are as shown in Table 6. Table 6: Results of benefit estimates (Basic plan in 2020) (Unit: 1,000 USD) Benefits Travel time Driving cost Traffic accidents Environmental costs Parking costs Physical health Total Cheonggye Stream street 213.0 98.3 23.4 19.7 17.9 263.8 636.2 Mapo main street 48.8 44.3 10.5 8.8 22.8 252.2 387.3 Han river main street 37.7 40.5 9.6 8.1 22.2 277.8 395.8 Benefit/Cost Ratio (B/C) was used as an economic analysis technique (refer to Eq(4)), and it is considered economical if the benefit/cost ratio is greater than or equal to 1, as the ratio of the total benefit and total cost. The analysis period was applied for 30 y of operation, and the social discount rate was 4.5 % depending on the domestic situation. 𝐵𝐵 𝑉𝑉⁄ 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 = ∑ 𝐵𝐵𝑡𝑡 (1+𝐵𝐵)𝑡𝑡 𝑛𝑛 𝐴𝐴=0 ∕ ∑ 𝐶𝐶𝑡𝑡 (1+𝐵𝐵)𝑡𝑡 𝑛𝑛 𝐴𝐴=0 (4) where Bt is the benefit during year t, Ct is the cost during year t, r is the social discounted rate and n is the analysis period. In the case of existing methodologies without wider impact, the value of B/C in the three projects did not exceed 1, making it difficult to ensure the feasibility of the project. as a result of applying the HEAT and SART measures, adding health benefits among wider impact, other projects, other than Cheonggye Stream street, showed B/C values of 1 or higher, which then ensure the feasibility of the project. The results of the analysis are shown in Table 7 and Figure 2. Table 7: Results of economic analysis (Basic plan) Street B/C Ratio Before applying wider impact After applying wider impact Cheonggye Stream street 1.93 3.29 Mapo main street 0.47 1.35 Han river main street 0.73 2.45 Figure 2: Comparison of B/C values, before and after applying wider impact In the case of Cheonggye Stream street, government can build a bicycle road without reducing the number of lanes. Under these circumstances, the project can be implemented without reflecting the wider impact, such as health benefits. However, other projects other than Cheonggye Stream street need to reduce the number of existing roads, which requires a detailed analysis of the effects on public roads and bicycle paths. In such cases, it is necessary to specifically estimate the effects of bicycle paths by reflecting the wider impact, such as health benefits. In addition, the results of conducting the sensitivity analysis are shown in Table 8. 185 Table 8: The Result of sensitivity analysis (B/C ratio, basic plan) Cost Benefit +30 % -30 % +30 % -30 % Cheonggye Stream street 2.53 4.70 4.28 2.30 Mapo main street 1.04 1.93 1.75 0.94 Han river main street 1.89 3.50 3.19 1.72 4. Conclusions Currently, various countries are focusing on solving urban traffic and environmental problems through the introduction of eco-friendly transportation modes. However, the current Korean method of estimating benefits alone lacks in terms of sufficient logic to consider the introduction of eco-friendly transportation. 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