DOI: 10.3303/CET2290015 Paper Received: 20 November 2021; Revised: 17 March 2022; Accepted: 22 April 2022 Please cite this article as: Fuchino T., Kitajima T., Shimada Y., Miyazawa M., 2022, Development for Prediction Model for Environmental Condition of Deterioration Phenomena for Asset Integrity Management, Chemical Engineering Transactions, 90, 85-90 DOI:10.3303/CET2290015 CHEMICAL ENGINEERING TRANSACTIONS VOL. 90, 2022 A publication of The Italian Association of Chemical Engineering Online at www.cetjournal.it Guest Editors: Aleš Bernatík, Bruno Fabiano Copyright © 2022, AIDIC Servizi S.r.l. ISBN 978-88-95608-88-4; ISSN 2283-9216 Development for Prediction Model for Environmental Condition of Deterioration Phenomena for Asset Integrity Management Tetsuo Fuchinoa,*, Teiji Kitajimab, Yukiyasu Shimadac, Masazumi Miyazawad a Tokyo Institute of Technology, 2-12-1 O-okayama, Meguro, Tokyo, Japan b Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, 2-24-16 Naka-cho, Koganei-shi, Tokyo, Japan c National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health, Japana, 1-4-6, Umezono, Kiyose, Tokyo Japan d Best Materia Corporation, 2-43-15, Misawa, Hino-shi, Tokyo, Japan fuchino@chemeng.titech.ac.jp The occurrence and progress of a deterioration phenomenon in a chemical plant is determined by the construction material, the plant physical structure and the physical and chemical environmental condition. In order to ensure and maintain the reliability of the facility during operation, the environmental condition such as the concentration of the deterioration substances at the deterioration site should be managed. In this study, we propose an approach to develop a prediction model for physical and chemical environmental condition of deterioration phenomena consistent with the plant operation. The prediction model is composed of the three layers; the process information management layer, the process bulk simulation layer, and the microscopic environmental condition prediction layer. By integrating abovementioned three layers based on the observability and measurable nature of the interfacial variables, it becomes possible to synthesize multi-scale simulation- based environment to predict the environmental condition of deterioration phenomena. 1. Introduction In these days, once a serious incident occurs, it may affect the sustainability of the business, so it is required to ensure and maintain the reliability of facilities in the chemical industry. The reliability of a facility is influenced by the deteriorations accompanying the operation. In order to ensure and maintain the reliability of the facility, the physical and chemical environmental condition such as the concentration of the deterioration substances at the deterioration site is to be managed. The environmental condition has been monitored by a limited number of sampling, so far. Originally, monitoring the environmental condition by sampling is an observation method for trend management on the assumption that the process operating condition does not change greatly. However, the operation is often forced to be changed greatly according to the market situation under the today’s mega competitive situation. Thus, the sampling-based condition monitoring up to now is insufficient to manage asset integrity under today’s change environment. To overcome the above-mentioned problem, the prediction model for physical and chemical environmental condition of deterioration phenomena consistent with the plant operation is indispensable. In general, a deterioration phenomenon of a chemical plant occurs in a microscopic region, and the chemical and physical environmental condition is behaved within such a microscopic region. This microscopic behaviour is governed by the overall bulk fluid condition of the corresponding deteriorated equipment module and the bulk fluid condition are dominated by the process overall operation. Therefore, the prediction model for physical and chemical environmental condition should be composed of the three layers; the process information management layer correcting and providing the operation data, the process bulk simulation layer estimating the unmeasurable bulk fluid conditions in the corresponding equipment module from the operating data, and the microscopic environmental condition prediction layer. In this study, the phenomena leading to microscopic corrosion environmental conditions and their causal events are expressed as hierarchical causal relationships. By integrating abovementioned three layers based on the observability and measurable nature of these causal 85 events, it becomes possible to synthesize multi-scale environment to predict the environmental condition of deterioration phenomena. 2. Example of NH4HS Corrosion in HDS process In this study, development of an environmental condition prediction model is considered by using a case study of the ammonium bisulfide (NH4HS) corrosion in the hydrodesulphurization (HDS) process. 2.1 HDS Process Figure 1 shows a block flow diagram of the HDS process, which represents the HDS plant providing the operation data, here. The diesel fraction containing nitrogen and sulphur components from the battery limit is fed through the “D-201: Feed Surge Drum” and pressurized by the “P-201A/B: Feed Pump”. After mixed with hydrogen, it is preheated by the E-201, E-203: Reactor Feed/Effluent Exchangers” and further heated up to the predetermined temperature by the “H-201: Reactor Charge Heater”. In the “R-201: Reactor”, the sulphur hydro- desulphurization reaction (e.g.; RS-R+H2=2R+H2S(g)), nitrogen hydro-denitrogenation reaction (e.g.; R’N=R’+3/2H2=R+R’+NH3(g)) and decomposition reactions occur. The reactor effluent containing H2S and NH3 equivalent to sulphur and nitrogen in the “Feed Diesel Fraction” is heat recovered by the “E-203, E-201: Reactor Feed/Effluent Exchangers” and “E-202: Stripper Reboiler”, and furthermore is cooled to about 40 C in “C-204: Reactor Effluent Condenser (Air Fin Cooler)”. In the low temperature section of “C-204”, H2S(g) and NH3(g) react to form NH4SH(s), which can cause under-deposit corrosion and blockage. To prevent forming of NH4SH(s), sour condensate is injected at inlet of “C-204” to decreasing partial pressure of H2S(g) and NH3(g). this blockage, the reactor effluent is quenched before sent to the “C-204” by using vaporization heat of injection water. The sufficiently cooled reactor effluent is sent to the “D-202: High Pressure Separator”. In the “D-202”, a vapour containing H2S and H2, an oil, and an aqueous phase are separated. The oil is further decompressed, and vapour liquid is separated by the “D-203: Low Pressure Separator”, and then purified by the “T-202: Stripper”. The gas containing H2S and H2 is sent to T-201 Amine Scrubber” to separate H2S, and the remaining gas is recycled after being partially purged. Figure 1: Block flow diagram of hydro desulphurization process. 2.2 NH4HS Corrosion The reactor effluent is supplied to the “C-204” at around 160C near the dew point of water by the latent heat of vaporization of injected water on the “C-204” inlet line, and cooled to about 40C by air. With cooling, the amount of condensate of light hydrocarbons and water in the vapor phase increases. Hydrocarbons in the diesel fraction and water are immiscible, and NH3(g) and H2S(g) are dissolved in the aqueous phase. The dissolved NH3(aq) and H2S(aq) form NH4HS(aq), and it is known that NH4HS corrosion is caused by NH4HS(aq) dissolved in the aqueous phase, and that if its equivalent concentration in aqueous phase exceeds 35wt% (Scherrer et al. (1980)), severe corrosion will occur. Therefore, it is important to monitor or predict the weight concentration of NH4HS in an aqueous phase as a corrosive environment, in order to ensure and maintain the reliability of facilities. In this study, we focus on the NH4HS corrosion environment of C-204 tube. The amount of NH4HS dissolved in the aqueous phase increases with the amount of water condensed, and the NH4HS corrosive environment becomes more severe as the outlet of “C-204” is approached. Near the outlet of “C-204”, considerable amounts of light hydrocarbons and water in the vapor phase are condensed. For this reason, it is expected that the volume velocity of the fluid falls and becomes a laminar flow region, and the vapor phase and the liquid phase flow separately in the tube. In such a case, the upper surface of the tube on the vapor phase side has a lower film heat transfer coefficient, and the tube surface temperature becomes substantially equal to the air temperature. Figure 2 shows an image of the flow inside the tube near the outlet of “C-204”. The water component of the tube vapor phase is under vapor pressure at the process bulk temperature D-201 Feed Surge Drum P-201A/B Feed Pump H-201 Reactor Charge Furnace K-205 Recycle Gas Compressor H2 Make-up from BL R-201 Reactor E-203 E-202 E-201 P-204 Water Injection Pump C-204 Reactor Effluent Condenser D-202 High  Pressure Separator Diesel Sour Condensate D-203 Low  Pressure Separator To T-202 T-201 Amine Scrubber Rich Amine Purge Lean Amine 5201 FIC 5202 FIC 5203 PIA E-201 E-203 5227 TIC 5228 TIC 5205 PdI 5229 TR FI 5218 5212 TI 5231 TIC 5206 PIC BL S 5209 PIC 86 TBulk K. On the other hand, when the tube surface temperature TSurface K reaches air temperature TAir K (