commonwealth matters commonwealth, volume 20, issue 1 (2018). © 2018 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/com.v20i1.176. all rights reserved. commonwealth matters j. wesley leckrone editor-in-chief c ommonwealth was founded to provide a mix of traditional academic articles, short and insightful research notes, and thought pieces about contemporary policy issues affecting pennsylvania. this issue represents an excellent combination of all these formats. the “commonwealth forum” provides a perspective on one of the most important, and contentious, issues facing pennsylvania: the structural budget deficit. bob dick of the commonwealth foundation provides a free market perspective that focuses on balancing the budget by reforming programs and eliminating inefficiencies. marc stier of the pennsylvania budget and policy center provides a progressive critique of recent republican policies in the state and argues that the best course of action going forward is to raise recurring sources of revenue and increase spending. michael mcskimming, robert vance dunbar, and ahmet guler show the importance of language to the operation of government. they examine the development of conservation officer responsibilities and find that a change in title to conservation police officer provides enhanced legitimacy to these public servants and allows them to better carry out their duties. jeffrey carroll and john f. mcdonald shift the topic to local government taxation in a case study of philadelphia. they examine the difficult problem of how to wean the city off of its reliance on the wage tax. finally, james vike examines why there are more registered independents in new 2 j. wesley leckrone jersey than pennsylvania. through an analysis of american national election study data, he finds that the modified closed primary system in new jersey encourages people to remain unaffiliated but that citizens are no less partisan or engaged than they are in pennsylvania, which has a closed primary. commonwealth is proud to announce that the first edition of pennsylvania politics & policy: the commonwealth reader will be published mid-2018 by temple university press. the reader is a compendium of the best policy writing from commonwealth, with updates to many of the manuscripts. each article also includes discussion questions, a “commonwealth forum” with a pro/con discussion of a topic related to the article, and a further reading section. the volume is ideal for classroom adoption in state and local government, public policy, and public administration classes. for more information or to receive an examination copy please visit the temple university press website at http://www.temple.edu/tempress/. if you have an innovative pedagogical practice involving politics or policy in pennsylvania please consider submitting a manuscript discussing your teaching design and learning outcomes. teaching methods including local governments in pennsylvania are also welcome. we will begin publishing a new section entitled “teaching the commonwealth” in late 2018. all accepted pedagogical manuscripts will be subject to the same strict peer review process as other pieces published in the journal. book 1.indb more than twelve cities across the united states are proposing safe injection sites, including philadelphia. safe injection sites have staff on hand in case of an accidental overdose, and also provide addicts with access to clean needles to prevent the spread of disease. too many addicts drift from society by having to hide their addictions, making treatment, if they want it, even less of an option as they continue to fall away from any potential entry to therapy for their disease. opponents claim safe injection sites bring crime and disorder to the communities in which they are located. but this is simply not true. a 2014 review of over seventy-five studies regarding these sites shows no increase in crime. they also reduce deaths from overdoses and increase the availability of other health-care services, such as testing for sexually transmitted diseases and mental health care. not a single death has occurred at any safe injection site. studies also show the sites do not increase drug use. the availability of a safe place to use drugs removes this behavior from the streets and public view. it also clearly saves lives. opponents fear it normalizes a behavior that should be shameful, but drug use is as old as human nature itself. instead of moralizing, those who oppose safe injection sites should exercise basic compassion and allow sites to be legally established in their cities and towns. saving lives is worth it. no the heroin epidemic in pennsylvania and across the nation should be of concern to all policy makers. addiction is widespread across geographic, racial, ethnic, and socioeconomic groups. it is a serious public health issue that urgently needs to be addressed. however, government-sanctioned safe injection sites are not the solution to the problem. cities that are considering them, such as philadelphia, will be in violation of federal law if they follow addiction ruins individual lives and communities. opioid addiction has undoubtedly reached epidemic status across the commonwealth of pennsylvania and around the country. but instead of treating drug use as a scourge, one solution proposes bringing addiction out of the shadows under the supervision of medical care professionals. that solution is the institution of safe injection sites. yes commonwealth forum: should pennsylvania allow safe injection sites? safe injection sites are well intentioned, but they are not the solution to the heroin crisis. governments at all levels should be dedicating more money to making addiction treatment more easily accessible. let’s use our scarce resources to make sure that everyone who wants to break free from the grip of heroin has a timely opportunity to do so. for more information commonwealth 20, no. 2–3 (2018), a special issue (https:// tupjournals .temple .edu/ index .php/ commonwealth/ index), was dedicated to the heroin and opioid crisis in pennsylvania. national institutes of health, national institute on drug abuse (https:// www .drugabuse .gov/ drugs -abuse/ opioids) provides detailed analysis of drug use statistics across the united states, with specific information on pennsylvania as well. thewolf administration developed a website and task force to fight the opioid crisis in pennsylvania (https:// www .pa .gov/ guides/ opioid -epidemic). this site provides information on addiction, treatment, and county resources. through on their plans. not only is it illegal to possess heroin, but it is also against the law to run a facility that allows the use of banned drugs. the u.s. department of justice has already warned that they will intervene to prevent the safe injection sites, and with legal justification. additionally, citysanctioned use of heroin, despite its good intentions, sends the wrong mes-sage that there is a safe way to use these devastating drugs. let’s also be realistic about the practicality and usefulness of setting up safe injection sites. what neighborhood is going to want one of these facilities located in their community? philadelphia has already broken up heroin camps in its kensington neighborhood because of complaints by residents. communities want to rid themselves of concentrations of addicts, not attract them. this not in my back yard (nimby) syndrome means that if there are sites set up, they are most likely to be located in poorer, less educated neighborhoods that have less political power. these areas already suffer from underinvestment of resources—why should they bear this burden as well? from pennsylvania politics and policy: a commonwealth reader, volume 2. edited by michelle j. atherton and j. wesley leckrone (philadelphia, temple university press, 2019). an introduction to the special issue on energy and the environment commonwealth, volume 19, issue 1 (2017). © 2017 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/com.v19i1.130. all rights reserved. an introduction to the special issue on energy and the environment christopher borick special issue editor pennsylvania has had a long and prominent history in the area of energy extraction. from the dawn of the american oil industry in titusville during the midnineteenth century to the contemporary expansion of hydraulic fracturing throughout the commonwealth, pennsylvania has regularly been at the center of energy innovation in the united states. but as oil, coal, and gas have been important drivers of the state’s economy for centuries, the extraction of fossil fuels has left a legacy of environmental damage throughout the keystone state. from acidic mine drainage into pennsylvania’s streams to spills of chemicals from gas extraction efforts into the commonwealth’s rivers, environmental degradation has often accompanied the economic benefits associated with the abundance of energy sources that lie beneath the state. the confluence of abundant energy resources and environmental damage from energy extraction has regularly been the focus of political entities in the state and has resulted in an array of polices that have sought to both promote and regulate energy production in the state. the recent expansion of hydraulic fracturing—or fracking, as it is commonly known—highlights these simultaneous policy efforts. policies such as 2012’s act 13 have allowed for widespread use of fracking activities throughout the commonwealth while simultaneously establishing regulatory frameworks for minimizing the 2 christopher borick environmental and health risks associated with hydraulic fracturing. act 13’s design has received significant public attention and considerable media scrutiny but fairly limited scholarly coverage. other areas of pennsylvania energy policy, such as the state’s unique renewable energy standards and its decision not to join with neighboring states in the regional greenhouse gas initiative (rggi), have also received modest attention from scholars. this special issue of commonwealth begins to fill this relative paucity of statefocused research by providing readers with a greatly enhanced understanding of the complex issues that define energy and environmental policy in contemporary pennsylvania. this dive into energy and environmental policy in the keystone state begins with a number of engaging pieces on the most prominent issue of the era—hydraulic fracturing. first, rachel l. hampton and barry g. rabe, of the university of michigan, provide an indepth analysis of pennsylvania’s unique policy response to the arrival of fracking in the state over the past decade. in particular, hampton and rabe provide valuable insight into why pennsylvania has opted to forgo the types of energy extraction taxes that other states have made key components of their fiscal policy structures. philip j. harold and tony kerzmann, of robert morris university, continue the examination of fracking in the commonwealth with a thorough overview of public attitudes and preferences regarding this major addition to life in pennsylvania. they find that state residents have responded to the expansion of fracking with increased awareness and highly divided levels of support for this means of natural gas extraction. building on this examination of public opinion toward fracking, erick lachapelle, of the university of montreal, contributes an engaging piece that compares perceptions of fracking among residents of pennsylvania and new york. lachapelle’s study finds alignment between the policy preferences of pennsylvanians and new yorkers and their states’ extremely varied policy approaches regarding hydraulic fracturing. while the expansion of fracking in pennsylvania has certainly been the most prominent aspect of energy policy in the state over the past decade, renewable energy development has also been a feature of policy development in harrisburg. but contrary to the state efforts to manage the meteoric growth of fracking, policy makers have explored (albeit with modest success) avenues to enhance the growth of renewable energy sources such as wind and solar. sarah banas mills, of the university of michigan, examines the recent drought of wind energy development in pennsylvania during a period in which wind power has grown substantially across the united states. mills’s analysis suggests that local landuse regulations may be more responsible than an introduction to the special issue on energy and the environment 3 failures of statelevel renewable energy policy for the lack of new wind power facilities in the keystone state. as mills provides evidence that concentration of landuse powers at the local level in pennsylvania is a key factor for the recent decline in expansion of wind power facilities in the state, market forces emerge as possibly a bigger driver behind the relatively slow growth of solar power in the commonwealth. somayeh youssefi, of the university of maryland, and patrick l. gurian, of drexel university, provide a powerful case that pennsylvania’s efforts to incentivize the generation of solar energy have been limited by market factors that have made the state’s tax credits insufficient to increase development. youssefi and gurian offer elegant policy modifications that could remedy the struggles to grow solar energy options in the state within the broader constraints of a regional energy market. finally, this special edition of commonwealth concludes with invaluable perspective on environmental governance in pennsylvania during a period of tremendous partisan conflict. john arway, director of the pennsylvania fish and boat commission, provides insight into the challenges of protecting the keystone state’s spectacular array of waterways and aquatic wildlife amid the partisan strife that has consumed the state capitol over the past decade. arway’s experiences in his challenging position and his call for more cooperation between “technocrats, bureaucrats, and politicians on both sides of the aisle” provide a wellsuited conclusion to the broader themes explored in this issue. christopher borick is a professor of political science and the director of the institute of public opinion at muhlenberg college in allentown, pennsylvania. he has worked in government positions at the federal and county levels and has published numerous books and scholarly articles on environmental and energy policy, public opinion, and electoral politics. he has co-directed the national survey on energy and the environment since 2008. book 1.indb commonwealth forum: should pennsylvania tax retirement income? yes pennsylvania is facing a structural budget deficit that will be exacerbated by an aging population. the commonwealth is among the oldest states in the country and faces a 66.4 percent increase in residents age sixty-five and over between 2010 and 2040. more retirees equals less income tax revenue and more fiscal stress on the state through expenditures on programs that assist the elderly. the time has come to rethink our taxation scheme. pennsylvania is one of only a handful of states that exempts all retirement plan income from taxation. this tax expenditure must be revised to promote the longterm fiscal health of the state. retirees have been productive members of society for decades and deserve recognition for their achievements. however, exempting public and private pension and retirement income is based on an antiquated notion that retirees cannot afford to be taxed, since they are no longer working. the facts do not support this case. the financial status of older people has gotten better over recent decades. adjusting for inflation, the median income of married couples sixty-five and older has increased 129 percent since 1962 and 114 percent for non-married individuals in this age group. almost 20 percent have incomes above $75,000. the major concern about increasing taxes on retirement is how it would affect the poor. in pennsylvania, 8.1 percent of those sixty-five and older live in poverty. however, national statistics show that the poorest quintile of americans only relies on pensions or retirement plans for 3 percent of their income. more than 80 percent of their money comes from social security. let’s keep the social security income exemption but start to tax pensions and retirement plans like 401(k) plans. pennsylvania will capture more revenue, while protecting its most vulnerable elderly. it will also prevent a generational shift of taxes onto younger people who are trying to raise families and buy homes. no pennsylvanians pay income tax, sales tax, property tax, local wage taxes, and a host of other taxes on top of the federal income tax. they do not need to pay more taxes when they are finally able to retire and have to live on a fixed income. furthermore, implementing a tax on retirement income would be an administrative nightmare. unlike the federal system, pennsylvania does not allow the exemption of retirement contributions when paying the flat 3.07 percent income tax to the state. taxing retirement income would then be a form of double taxation. retirees would be forced to pay taxes twice: once when the money is put into retirement savings, and again when it is withdrawn. in addition, suddenly taxing retirement income would be an economic shock to the state’s senior citizens and patently unfair. out of the blue, they would have 3.07 percent less in their bank accounts, with little to no recourse to increase their earnings as the cost of living rises and incomes decline. those who support taxing retirement income have suggested the implementation of exemptions for low-income retirees in order to make the system equitable. however, when pennsylvania first imposed an income tax, it included exemptions that were then ruled unconstitutional. it is likely the commonwealth does not tax any form of retirement income because exemptions in this category would be ruled unconstitutional as well. senior citizens continue to pay property taxes and sales taxes as they age while putting very little stress on public services. they deserve a break in their golden years. for more information the national conference of state legislatures (http:// www .ncsl .org/ documents/ fiscal/ statetaxonpensions2015update .pdf) provides a report titled “state personal income taxes on pensions and retirement income” that provides detailed information concerning the types of tax breaks that are offered to retired people by different states. “the genesis of senior income tax breaks” (national tax journal, december 2012), by karen smith conway and jonathan c. rork, gives an overview of how and why states developed tax breaks for older americans. they show that exempting pensions from income taxes became popular starting in the 1970s. “revisiting state tax preferences for seniors” (2006), by elizabeth mcnichol of the center on budget and policy priorities, outlines how coming demographic changes may change how states tax their older citizens. the article is available at https:// www .cbpp .org/ sites/ default/ files/ atoms/ files/ 3 -6 -06sfp .pdf. the social security administration (https:// www .ssa .gov/ policy/ docs/ chartbooks/ fast _facts/ 2016/ fast _facts16 .pdf) publishes the annual “fast facts and figures about social security.” the file includes important information about what demographic groups rely most heavily on the federal program for their incomes. sources of income are broken out across a range of sources including pensions. from pennsylvania politics and policy: a commonwealth reader, volume 2. edited by michelle j. atherton and j. wesley leckrone (philadelphia, temple university press, 2019). commonwealth: a journal of pennsylvania politics and policy frontmatter commonwealth a journal of pennsylvania politics and policy editor-in-chief j. wesley leckrone, widener university managing editor michelle j. atherton, temple university book review editor/ associate editor thomas j. baldino, wilkes university associate editors christopher borick, muhlenberg college paula a. duda holoviak, kutztown university joseph p. mclaughlin, jr., temple university editorial advisory board bruce caswell, rowan university beverly a. cigler, pennsylvania state university, harrisburg richardson dilworth, drexel university john j. kennedy, west chester university john kincaid, lafayette college joseph marbach, georgian court university david y. miller, university of pittsburgh megan mullin, duke university richard a. stafford, carnegie mellon university copy editor barbara crawford editorial assistant catherine long, widener university founding editor emeritus donald g. tannenbaum, gettysburg college editors emeritus thomas j. baldino, wilkes university gerard j. fitzpatrick, ursinus college published by temple university press on behalf of the pennsylvania political science association the pennsylvania political science association founded in 1939, the pennsylvania political science association (ppsa) is the nation’s oldest state political science association. its mission has always been to promote scholarship, research, and the exchange of ideas within the pennsylvania community of political scientists. ppsa draws its membership principally from the political science and public administration faculties of pennsylvania’s public and private colleges and universities but also includes government professionals and faculty members from surrounding states. ppsa’s annual conference includes dozens of panelists covering a wide variety of subjects. while university faculty compose the vast majority of participants, legislators, legislative staff, executive officials, and undergraduates also have participated. for more information on the activities of ppsa and membership rates, please visit the association’s website at http://www.papolisci.org/. http://www.papolisci.org/%7bcomp the pennsylvania political science association officers and executive council 2017–2018 president steven peterson pennsylvania state university, harrisburg first vice president a. lanethea mathews-s chultz muhlenberg college second vice president michael greenberg shippensburg university treasurer steven b. lem kutztown university secretary paula a. duda holoviak kutztown university executive council 2015–2018 2016–2019 2017–2020 michelle j. atherton temple university heather frederick slippery rock university joseph p. mclaughlin, jr. temple university jennie sweet-cushman chatham college justin deplato robert morris university sarah niebler dickinson college ex officio members immediate past president christopher borick muhlenberg college past president brooke harlowe lock haven university past president stanley berard lock haven university editorial staff of commonwealth: a journal of pennsylvania politics and policy editor in-chief j. wesley leckrone widener university book review editor & editor emeritus thomas j. baldino wilkes university editor emeritus gerard j. fitzpatrick ursinus college founding editor emeritus donald g. tannenbaum gettysburg college pennsylvania policy forum c ommonwealth collaborates with the pennsylvania policy forum to plan special issues and attract high-quality content to the journal. the forum is a consortium of faculty members and academic and policy institute leaders from pennsylvania colleges and universities who share an interest in generating ideas, analyses, and symposiums that might prove useful to citizens, elected officials, and civic leaders in addressing major issues confronting the commonwealth and its local governments. as educators who have helped train students for careers in public policy, members also share an interest in helping to improve the skills, knowledge, and tools of leaders in the public and civic sectors. members of the forum have expertise in public policy analysis as well as a wide range of substantive issues, including but not limited to education, transportation and public infrastructure, economic development, agriculture, energy, elections, water policy and the environment, health care, social policy, urban development, emergency management, information technology, public finance, and constitutional law. members also share an interest in improving both the policy process itself and the institutional structures through which issues and problems are addressed. forum members have contributed to public policy debates in pennsylvania, and a number have also served in state and local government and in nonprofit and civic organizations that engage in policy development and implementation. some members of the forum are associated with other academic and public policy–related organizations, but the forum itself is independent of these relationships and has no formal connections to any government entity. members obviously benefit from the intellectual resources and environments of their universities, but unless otherwise indicated, they do not act on behalf of their institutions when they sponsor forum projects. the premise of the forum is that through the consortium, members can jointly develop and sponsor nonpartisan research, symposiums, and education and training programs of value to elected officials, civic leaders, and the public and thereby enhance their ability to contribute to more intelligent and informed policy making. pennsylvania policy forum membership (2017) theodore r. alter, professor of agricultural, environmental, and regional economics, pennsylvania state university michelle j. atherton, associate director, institute for public affairs, temple university thomas j. baldino, professor of political science, wilkes university michael cassidy, adjunct instructor of political science, temple university beverly a. cigler, professor of public policy and administration, pennsylvania state university, harrisburg richardson dilworth, associate professor of political science and director of the center for public policy, drexel university michael r. dimino, sr., associate professor of law, widener university commonwealth law school (chair) paula a. duda holoviak, professor of political science, kutztown university mark alan hughes, professor of practice at penndesign and faculty director of the kleinman center for energy policy, university of pennsylvania john j. kennedy, associate professor of political science, west chester university michael king, adjunct professor, albright college and temple university, and associate professor, pennsylvania state university (retired) robin lauermann, professor of politics and international relations, messiah college j. wesley leckrone, associate professor of political science, widener university nelson lim, executive director, fels institute of government, university of pennsylvania (vice chair) joseph p. mclaughlin, jr., director of the institute for public affairs, temple university david y. miller, associate professor and director of the innovation clinic, graduate school of public and international affairs, university of pittsburgh randall m. miller, professor of history, st. joseph’s university theresa miller, director, institute of politics, university of pittsburgh joseph sabino mistick, associate professor of law, duquesne university school of law richard a. stafford, distinguished service professor of public policy, heinz college, carnegie mellon university david b. thornburgh, executive director of the committee of seventy craig wheeland, associate vice president for academic affairs and professor, villanova university contents volume 19, number 2 | 2017 | issn 2469 7672 editor’s note ■ commonwealth matters | j. wesley leckrone, editor-in-chief articles ■ the 2016 pennsylvania presidential and u.s. senate elections: breaking pennsylvania’s electoral habits | berwood yost, jackie redman, and scottie thompson ■ is this the care we need? an examination of childcare policy in pennsylvania | jennie sweet-cushman and ashley harden ■ all politics is organizational: an analysis of candidate recruitment and political influence in pennsylvania school board elections | nathan r. shrader book reviews ■ daley, david. ratf**cked: the true story behind the secret plan to steal america’s democracy | jack treadway ■ brasch, walter m. fracking america: sacrificing health and the environment for short-term economic benefit | andreea maierean book 1.indb commonwealth forum: should the state provide support to rural hospitals? yes health care is a human right. in a nation as wealthy as the united states, not providing basic health care to every citizen is immoral. there are fifteen hospitals in the state of pennsylvania considered “critical access,” a designation given by the centers for medicare and medicaid to some rural hospitals in response to closures in the late twentieth century. this means these hospitals provide care when the next-closest option might be more than forty miles away. in the event of a heart attack or another acute-care issue, access means the difference between life and death. rural pennsylvanians deserve the same ability to attend to their health needs as any other urban or suburban citizen. in recent years, rural hospitals across the united states have been facing increasing closures. first, the lack of health insurance means hospitals provide care but are uncompensated for it. people simply cannot pay the bills. second, rural hospitals serve small populations, an often shrinking market, who are not as wealthy as their counterparts in other regions. thankfully, the passage of medicaid expansion has enabled more rural citizens to have health insurance and has financially stabilized some of the most vulnerable rural hospitals. those rural hospitals in nonexpansion states provide more uncompensated care, putting them at risk of closure. during the budget impasse of governor wolf ’s first year, rural hospitals in the commonwealth were operating on the brink of closure because of delayed medicaid payments from the state. when lives are on the line, state government needs to fulfill its responsibilities to the people. politicians should not play politics with the basic needs of the people they are supposed to represent. no there are nearly seven hundred rural hospitals on the brink of financial collapse in the united states. they stay open because of huge injections of taxpayer money into an unsustainable system. the numbers simply do not add up. rural populations are shrinking, yet residents of these areas believe they have a right to a hospital. rural areas have plenty of other amenities. for example, they are much less polluted with car exhaust and concentrated heavy industry than their suburban and urban counterparts. they have open vistas, and peace and quiet. residents do not have to sit in traffic for hours simply to get to work. however, what rural areas do lack is easy access to a hospital. but why should the residents of a state or the citizens of the rest of the country fund what comes down to a personal decision about where to live? rural hospitals are falling apart because of the realities of our market economy, and it is no place for government to continue to waste public money sustaining them. rural areas often have trouble attracting enough doctors and medical personnel to staff a hospital. rural residents tend to lack good health insurance or have no insurance at all, and so the hospital is forced to function while providing services for free or at far under market value. in addition, in many areas, there simply are not enough people requesting services at the hospital to justify keeping the doors open. should rural residents be provided with medical care? of course. but a general physician or small clinic could suffice, and patients could travel for more-severe conditions. sustaining failing rural hospitals is just another reason the cost of health care in the united states continues its exponential climb. for more information the pennsylvania office of rural health (http:// www .porh .psu .edu/) at pennsylvania state university is a partnership among the federal government, the commonwealth, and the university. there are fifty state offices funded by the federal office of rural health policy in the u.s. department of health and human services and pennsylvania department of health. the u.s. department of health and human services federal office of rural health policy (https:// www .hrsa .gov/ rural -health/ index .html) was created in 1987 to address rural access to health care, study the market stability of rural hospitals, and the role of medicaid and medicare in financing rural hospitals. the national organization of state offices of rural health (https:// nosorh .org/) provides news, studies, and discussion of best practices related to rural health issues across the country. from pennsylvania politics and policy: a commonwealth reader, volume 1. edited by michelle j. atherton and j. wesley leckrone (philadelphia, temple university press, 2018). book 1.indb and 18.1 percent smoke. smoking alone is responsible for 27.9 percent of all cancer deaths in the commonwealth and accounts for $6.38 billion in health-care costs each year ($2.07 billion of which comes from publicly funded medicaid). a single program, medicaid, accounts for 37 percent of pennsylvania’s budget. the quality of life for millions of pennsylvanians is compromised by bad health. resources that could be devoted to education or income tax cuts are being diverted to address poor health. policy makers have the ability to address health concerns by increasing taxes on products that promote our increasingly unhealthy lifestyles. so called “sin taxes” are placed on items such as cigarettes and alcohol to raise prices and thus discourage their consumption. these taxes should be expanded beyond the traditional products to increase the costs of unhealthy behaviors. for example, philadelphia began collecting a tax on “sugary drinks” in 2017. the objective was to nudge people to drink noncaloric beverages in an effort to combat obesity. pennsylvania could expand the use of sin taxes to a wide range of food products that promote bad health. this would have the twofold benefit of discouraging poor eating choices while at the same time raising revenue that could be used for public health programs promoting healthy consumption habits and exercise. this win-win situation would positively affect the lives of pennsylvanians while at the same time cutting back on the amount the commonwealth spends on health-care services. no two of the most popular sandwiches in pennsylvania are the pitts-burger and cheese from primanti bros. in pittsburgh and a cheesesteak from pat’s king of steaks in philadelphia. if your mouth is watering at the thought of these two culinary delights, take note of these statistics: the pitts-burger contains 775 calories (39 percent of the recommended daily intake) and 51 percent of the recommended daily allotment of fat. a cheesesteak has about the same amount of calories but 59.6 grams of fat—a whopping 92 percent of the recommended daily intake. no one would argue that eating these sandwiches on a daily basis is a good idea. however, if people occasionally stop to grab one on the way home from a phillies or pirates game, who has the right to discourage them? what we eat is a matter of preference, and we each suffer the consequences of our dietary choices. yes the health of americans is a serious public policy concern. in pennsylvania 30.2 percent of residents are obese, 17.7 percent engage in excessive drinking, commonwealth forum: should pennsylvania rely on sin taxes for revenue? for example, philadelphia taxes “sugary drinks.” a twenty-ounce bottled coke from a convenience store gets taxed, but a white chocolate mocha with whole milk from starbucks does not. this is true even though the latter, with 580 calories, 67 grams of sugar, and 85 percent of the daily recommended amount of saturated fat, is worse for you than a coke’s 240 calories, 65 grams of sugar, and 0 percent saturated fat. second, sin taxes are often less about changing behavior and more about finding easy sources of revenue by taxing products that are deemed to be against the public interest. it is always easier to bridge budget gaps by taxing cigarettes than it is to raise income taxes. at the end of the day, sin taxes are just a way for the government to tell us what it thinks is good for us rather than letting us make our own decisions. they are a bad idea. for more information the fiscal survey of the states (https:// www .nasbo .org/ reports -data/ fiscal -survey -of -states) is published in the spring and fall by the national association of state budget officers. the survey contains data on tax increases in the states, with specific sections on sin taxes levied on products such as alcohol and tobacco. “do ‘sin taxes’ really change consumer behavior?” (february 10, 2017) is a podcast featuring university of pennsylvania professor benjamin lockwood discussing his research on the economics of sin taxes. visit http:// knowledge .wharton .upenn .edu/ article/ do -sin -taxes -really -change -consumer -behavior for a transcript and audio of the podcast. the tax foundation (https:// taxfoundation .org/ state -tax/ excise -taxes/) provides original research on excise taxes in the states from a small-govern ment perspective. many of its pieces are devoted to studying the effects of sin taxes. “the pros and cons of taxing sweetened beverages based on sugar content” (http:// www .taxpolicycenter .org/ sites/ default/ files/ publication/ 136861/ pros _and _cons _of _taxing _sweetened _beverages _based _on _sugar _content .pdf) was funded by the american heart association and written by scholars at the urban institute. the 2016 study examines the feasibility and desirability of collecting beverage taxes at the national, state, and local levels. not so fast. there’s a group of people who believe they know what’s best for us and want to change our consumption habits. they want to levy “sin taxes” on products they think people should avoid. it started with cigarette and alcohol taxes and has moved on to the current fight over taxes on soda. there are two major problems with the expansion of these taxes. first, the process for determining which product is subject to extra taxes is arbitrary. from pennsylvania politics and policy: a commonwealth reader, volume 1. edited by michelle j. atherton and j. wesley leckrone (philadelphia, temple university press, 2018). book 1.indb commonwealth forum: would mandated paid leave be a competitive disadvantage for pennsylvania? yes businesses in pennsylvania do not need more regulations from the state dictating what benefits they give their employees. currently, the state’s unemployment rate is 0.7 percentage points above the national average. in 2016, pennsylvania ranked fourteenth from the bottom in terms of job creation. forcing businesses to spend more on employee benefits will not attract more firms to pennsylvania or encourage citizens to start up their own businesses with prohibitive employee costs. implementing another layer of cost on employers when nearby states do not do so will likely cost the state jobs and revenue as businesses flee across the border. one of the ways firms attract top talent is through offering the benefits such talent desires. while not every business in pennsylvania offers paid family and medical leave, some do. not everyone desires paid family and medical leave as a benefit, yet such a program would mandate that businesses offer such a program. maybe some employees would prefer to have these benefits offered in wages? for example, what about late-middle-age employees whose children are raised and parents deceased? what benefit is mandated paid leave to them? employers and employees should have the option to implement the type and amount of benefits they would prefer as part of free and open labor contract negotiations. if some people are working for businesses that do not offer such benefits at all, yet the employee would like to have that benefit, it can only serve as an incentive to work harder toward a career within a more competitive labor market. no federal government statistics show that a majority of americans with children under age six are employed. as of 2016, both parents were employed in 56.3 percent of married households, while 66.8 percent of women and 83.8 percent of men in single-parent households had jobs. these families rely on their earnings to put a roof over their heads and provide food and clothing to their children. changes in social mores and the transition to a postindustrial economy have made the prospect of a parent staying at home to raise children an antiquated concept for most families. paid family medical leave in pennsylvania would encourage one or both parents to stay home with their children in the early months of their lives. adopting paid family medical leave would not harm business fortunes in the commonwealth. in fact, it would actually benefit business competitiveness and the bottom line while helping families. after california adopted a paid leave law, 90 percent of employers surveyed reported that they suffered either no financial losses or actually increased profitability as a consequence of the law. paid family leave reduces turnover, meaning that firms spend less on recruiting, hiring, and training new employees. it also results in more women returning to their jobs after childbirth, which is a plus, because they have the skill sets and institutional knowledge to hit the ground running after leave. among firms that adopt paid family leave, morale and worker productivity has been shown to increase. all of these things lead to a bettertrained workforce without any negative side effects for business. adopting paid family medical leave is a perfect way to attract good talent to pennsylvania and increase the strength of the commonwealth’s workforce. for more information the wage and hour division of the u.s. department of labor (https:// www .dol .gov/ whd/ fmla/) provides guides and fact sheets for employees and employers explaining the details of the federal family and medical leave act. the national conference of state legislatures (www .ncsl .org/ research/ labor -and -employment/ employee -leave .aspx) keeps track of the states’ family and medical leave laws including coverage and eligibility, the provisions (paid or unpaid), and for whom the leave is providing care. some states also provide mandated school-related parental leave. “paid family medical leave: an issue whose time has come” (https:// www .brookings .edu/ wp -content/ uploads/ 2017/ 06/ es _20170606 _paidfamilyleave .pdf) is the 2017 joint publication of a group of scholars from the free-market-leaning american enterprise institute and the center-left brookings institution. the work includes data on family medical leave policies in the united states and countries in the organization for economic cooperation and development. the independent women’s forum (http:// www .iwf. org/) is a libertarian organization that provides a number of reports and opinion pieces opposing government-mandated paid medical leave. from pennsylvania politics and policy: a commonwealth reader, volume 1. edited by michelle j. atherton and j. wesley leckrone (philadelphia, temple university press, 2018). book reviews commonwealth, volume 19, issue 2 (2017). © 2017 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/com.v19i2.155. all rights reserved. book reviews ■ ratf**cked: the true story behind the secret plan to steal america’s democracy. david daley. 2016. new york: liveright publishing. isbn 978-1-63149-162-7 (cloth). students of politics are well aware of the significance of the decennial process of legislative redistricting. they are also highly cognizant of gerrymandering, an approach used by the majority party to enhance its proportion of legislative seats by constricting districts that contain a favorable balance of its voters in as many districts as possible. but even those who closely follow politics may not be aware of just how sophisticated gerrymandering has become. david daley provides a detailed account of how the republican party gained majorities in state legislatures and then used gerrymandering to ensure its dominance at both the state legislative and congressional levels. the colorful term in the title describes political dirty tricks done on the cheap. it is most often associated with donald segretti and the dirty tricks team assembled in 1972 for president richard nixon’s reelection. the term is also associated with republican national committee counsel ben ginsberg in the early 1990s. ginsberg entered into an unlikely alliance with black political leaders to create majority-minority districts, as provided in the voting rights book reviews 87 act. democratic voters were packed into solidly democratic districts. this led to an increase in the number of black representatives in congress while making the surrounding districts whiter and safely republican. ginsberg referred to the plan as project ratfuck. daley describes the key role played by chris jankowski, a political tactician with the republican state leadership committee (rslc). the rslc was founded in 2002 as an organization to focus on state elections. after barack obama’s 2008 election, jankowski saw redistricting as an opportunity for the gop to regain political power. he identified the 44 states where the legislature was responsible for redistricting. he looked for state legislative chambers that were fairly evenly divided and where there was a republican governor, so that a proposed redistricting plan could not be vetoed. he found 18 chambers where fewer than four seats separated the parties. in all, 107 seats in 16 states were targeted. the plan was called redistricting majority project, or redmap. the plan was an unmitigated success. in 2010, the gop picked up 63 house seats, six senate seats, and 680 state legislative seats, resulting in republicans controlling 29 governorships and 26 state legislatures. the democrats held only 15 state legislatures. today, republicans control 32 state legislatures to 14 for the democrats. as republican majorities began the 2010 redistricting, the rslc offered the assistance of their experts. the results of the 2012 election show how successful they were. nationally, the democrats polled 1.5 million more votes for congress than the republicans but they gained only eight seats. the impact of the gop gerrymander is more dramatically revealed at the state level. in ohio, the gop won 52% of the statewide congressional vote but won 75% of the seats. in pennsylvania, the democrats won almost 100,000 more votes total across the commonwealth, but the republicans won 13 of the 18 seats. daley presents two case studies from pennsylvania to demonstrate how dirty tricks were employed to defeat democratic incumbent state legislators to achieve a republican majority. both were undermined by deceptive mailers. david levdansky was running for a fourteenth term. flyers were mailed to his constituents accusing him of voting to spend $600 million to build a library for deceased former u.s. senator arlen specter. in actuality, he had voted to spend two million dollars to finance a library at the university of pennsylvania. david kessler was done in by the same flyer. in his case, the specter library was compared to the taj mahal. six states employ nonpartisan commissions to some degree in the redistricting process. the most successful is iowa’s commission. daley attributes this success to the attitudes of iowa’s voters. he reports that iowans genuinely 88 jack treadway support such an approach to redistricting. arizona offers an example of an unsuccessful attempt at nonpartisanship, according to daley. established in 2000, the redistricting board consisted of two democrats, two republicans, and one independent. it was initially viewed as an improvement, but by 2011 daley states that this “experiment in bipartisanship devolved into ever more devious forms of ratf**king.” while the redmap plan was a decided success for the republican party, the implications for the political system generally are decidedly more negative. gerrymandered districts result in too many voters who are denied a real choice in the general election. the crucial election becomes not the general election but the majority party’s primary election. the dramatic increase in safe districts has also contributed to the extreme partisanship that currently plagues our system. competitive districts that are more likely to produce moderate legislators have been gerrymandered out of existence. safe districts force legislators to appeal to the extreme elements in their respective parties. attempts at moderation increase the possibility of opposition in the primary. there is little incentive to engage in bipartisanship. daley details how sophisticated redistricting has become in an era of sophisticated modeling and immense computing capacity. today, experts draw district lines with no lack of census or voter data. districts can be constructed block by block with little fear of errors. a party in control of the legislature and governorship can make districts safe for at least a decade. this is a well-researched, well-written book. it calls attention to a situation that should concern all citizens. electoral competition is central to all democracies. daley describes a concerted attack on that competition in america. jack treadway, professor emeritus, department of political science, kutztown university ■ fracking america: sacrificing health and the environment for shortterm economic benefit. walter m. brasch. 2016. sacramento: greeley and stone. isbn: 978-0-942991-27-7 (paper). while shale gas exploration is commonly perceived to have marked a turning point in american energy policy, walter m. brasch in fracking america reveals the extent to which the reality of public health concerns, economic benefits, and private property violations does not live up to the hype. the design and format of the book reflect a careful examination of the problems associated with shale gas exploration. the author seeks to promote a book reviews 89 comprehensive understanding of fracking’s impact on diverse issues that include human health, the environment, political discourse, academic integrity, and media coverage. although uneven across its 25 chapters, the book’s main focus on fracking’s consequences generates an important dimension to our understanding of nontraditional energy sources, namely that shale gas exploration is, on the whole, an unsafe process that harms our environment and health. this review identifies three key themes: economic impact, legal problems, and public health issues (in particular related to water pollution). the economics of fracking according to brasch’s sources, hydraulic fracturing wells can cost anywhere between $3.5 million to $10 million per well. the author claims that only 20% of wells are profitable in their lifetime, which can be just 10 years. in fact, most wells experience a production decline in the third year. furthermore, faced with an economy in recession, many of the first landowners approached were easily convinced to lease mineral rights for a lump sum and the promise of royalties. as owners became more knowledgeable, they negotiated for cleanup costs and free natural gas to heat their homes. in response, the large corporations became shrewder, and owners were quick to accept lower leasing costs for the possibility of larger royalties. as a result, corporations legally deducted portions of final production costs from royalty checks that they issued to surface owners. a recurrent problem of the book, particularly noticeable in chapter two, is that it alienates the audience it hopes to persuade. in particular, the landowners are accused of being greedy and selfishly interested in short-term benefits with a lack of foresight. likewise, the author paints natural gas corporations as actively malicious (p. 41) and quickly dismisses alternative reports on the economic benefits of shale gas as exaggerated and inflated (p. 42). direct affronts to landowners and natural gas corporations might not represent the best persuasive strategy. last, the flowchart on page 52 makes little sense and appears careless and unsystematic. eminent domain an important legal clarification on page 55 examines the problem of split estate. old english common law allows for separate ownership of surface rights and underground mineral rights, which are considered to be “the dominant estate.” this opens the discussion about eminent domain: the power to take private property for public use while offering just compensation to those whose property is acquired. 90 andreea maierean the author believes transcanada, the company behind the keystone pipeline, has taken advantage of eminent domain in its construction work. when landowners turned down easement funds, the company requested that the state’s railroad commission “seize private property and then transfer it to transcanada for economic development” (p. 56). even more troubling, a portion of the land seized was an archaeological site, specifically a native american burial site. owners were also concerned about their water rights. between 2000 and 2013, the author identified 8,132 pipeline incidents, resulting in 218 deaths and about $5.4 billion in property damage (pp. 57–58). critics call these acts unconstitutional, citing court rulings that forbid seizure of property for private use. however, pennsylvania’s act 13 gives these companies even more opportunities for similar morally disreputable acquisitions. marcus rowland, the chief financial officer of the natural gas producer energy corp is cited as acknowledging this problem and admitting that at least half of chesapeake’s gas drilling has been involuntary (p. 61). furthermore, such problems are not limited to the united states. despite 99% public opinion opposition, the united kingdom allowed gas companies to access a shale bed beneath residences. public health issues public health problems associated with fracking, and in particular water pollution, constitute the most serious negative consequences of shale gas exploration. in pennsylvania, the act that preceded act 13 initially contained a stipulation to provide up to $2 million a year to fund the department of health for “collecting and disseminating information, preparing and conducting health care provider outreach, and education and investigating health related complaints and other uses associated with unconventional natural gas production activity” (p. 140). that provision never appeared in the final bill. furthermore, states like colorado, north dakota, and pennsylvania track unconventional drilling related health complaints, but refuse to make the complaints public. other states do not track those complaints at all. some doctors note that there is no financial incentive to collect such data, which could come from fees collected from the industry itself. the book highlights independent studies from the university of pennsylvania and columbia university that found an increase in dermatological, neonatal, and cardiovascular illness in those living in fracking zones. scientists from the university of missouri discovered that some chemicals used during fracking blocked estrogen and androgen hormones. dr. theo colborn, a book reviews 91 medical professional who analyzed the chemicals, posited that approximately one-third of these chemicals “may cause cancer, while almost 90 percent of the toxins in a fracking mixture could cause damage to the skin, eyes, ears, nose, and throat” (p. 142). it is important to note that exposure to these chemicals can occur not only through the water and air but also through the soil, plants, and animals. it is with the help of such comprehensive health assessments that new york’s department of health banned fracking in the state. one of the most elaborate arguments made in fracking america concerns water pollution: unconventional drilling poses a huge threat to natural watersheds and local biodiversity with a variety of pollutants, from radioactive to explosive. hydraulic fracturing requires a company to tap large amounts of water from local sources. often, public officials are easily persuaded to grant access to energy companies, despite the potential for contamination, depletion, and disturbance to watershed biodiversity. brasch cites a comprehensive study commissioned by the european union that led to the recommendation that no fracking be allowed near areas where water is used for drinking. it normally takes tens of thousands of years for contaminants to move to the surface, but shale gas drilling has cut that time to decades (p.163). in the united states, both individual doctors and medical associations recommend testing wells near drilling sites on a regular basis for dissolved chemicals, noting the higher risk of contamination from metals such as barium and strontium (p.165). in one family’s home, methane levels in the water were so high, they needed to constantly ventilate their home for fear of an explosion. this family, and many others mentioned in chapter 9, experienced a reduction in respiratory and dermatological ailments after switching from their contaminated wells to shipped-in water. while the number of case studies analyzed in relation to water pollution remains impressive, i recommend a more careful examination of sources for several of the cited studies. the author tends to view studies by proponents of the industry as subjective, but sources benefitting his argument as objective. calling attention to the subjectivity of certain sources without applying that same thoroughness to all sources constitutes a double standard. a look into the future the book concludes by examining alternatives to the current dependency on fossil fuels and explores the possibility of hyperaggressive renewable energy sources that currently provide 16.6% of energy in the united states. arguments in favor of moving in this direction come from public opinion, as 92 andreea maierean three-quarters of americans support increased development of renewable sources, the most popular of which is wind. the plan also includes a complete switch to electric and hydrogen fuel cell cars. brasch concludes that, despite its temporary status as a cheap viable energy source, shale gas will eventually fall by the wayside. in recent years, the american public and scientists alike have increasingly opposed horizontal drilling. their opposition extends to other aspects of the process, including pipelines like the keystone xl. the author notes, however, that when the shale gas industry ends, it will leave behind shell towns and environmental damage that will take years to recover. the particular strength of fracking america is the comprehensive and profound description and analysis of all problems associated with fracking. it is well written, rich in data and analysis, though it likely will not appeal to fracking’s advocates, because it is too quick to dismiss contrary arguments. a recurrent problem is that it alienates the audience it actually tries to persuade. last, while renewable energy may truly represent alternatives to fracking and its inherent problems, the author did not offer a solution to the cost (and by extension, the sustainability) of the renewable energy process. andreea maierean, assistant professor, department of political science, wilkes university commonwealth matters commonwealth matters j. wesley leckrone editor-in-chief this issue marks the beginning of a new format for commonwealth. the journal was founded in 1987 as a general-purpose political science journal open to all fields of the discipline. over the years it gradually attracted more scholarship on pennsylvania. the executive board of the pennsylvania political science association noted this transition and decided that the journal would have a solid future if it were rebranded to focus exclusively on pennsylvania politics. temple university press agreed, and together we have partnered to publish the newly reconstituted commonwealth: a journal of pennsylvania politics and policy. temple university press will publish three online issues of commonwealth annually. the first will be a special issue published in january to coincide with the beginning of the state’s legislative session. the special issue will be devoted to a single area of public policy that is of importance to pennsylvania. the remaining two issues of the journal will be published in the late spring and early fall. these two general-topic issues will be composed of traditional research-based articles, expert political analysis of current policy dilemmas in the state, essays, and book reviews. commonwealth and temple university press have also partnered to offer an annual “year in review.” this hard-copy volume will be a compendium of the best commonwealth articles of the year. the articles will be commonwealth, volume 18, issue 1 (june 2016). © 2016 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online).http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/cjppp.v18i1.79. all rights reserved. 2 j. wesley leckrone augmented by an introductory chapter outlining pennsylvania’s major policy events and appendices with statistical data on the budget, state demographics, and election returns. the first edition of the “year in review” will be published in time for classroom use in fall 2018. i would like to thank christopher borick (muhlenberg college), paula holoviak (kutztown university), joseph mclaughlin (temple university), and michelle atherton (temple university) for all their hard work in actualizing the new mission of commonwealth. i would also like to thank mary rose muccie and aaron javsicas of temple university press for helping us reconceptualize the journal and for guiding us through the process of transitioning to a new online format. special thanks go to joseph mclaughlin and michelle atherton, who are serving as the special editors of this issue on education policy in pennsylvania. they took a chance in organizing the first issue of the new journal. through their diligent work they have created a template that can be successfully implemented in the future. more information on the new format of commonwealth and guidelines for submitting manuscripts is available on the temple university press website at https://tupjournals.temple.edu/index.php/commonwealth/ index. issues of commonwealth published before 2016 are available at http://www.papolisci.org/journal-commonwealth. book 1.indb regions. governors are at the forefront of convincing businesses to relocate to their states, incubating the development of new technologies and industries, and creating tax and regulatory schemes that are attractive to business. governors with business experience have an advantage over career politicians because they have real-world experience in creating jobs and understanding the effects of government policies on the private sector. they also are able to view government operations with a set of fresh eyes, unlike individuals who become governor by the standard practice of working their way through the political system. business practices of focusing on good customer service provision and cost efficiencies help governors streamline and rationalize government programs that are often designed around what is politically possible rather than best practices. businesspeople often successfully run for governor by arguing that they are not part of the entrenched political system. they are above the partisan rivalries and conflicts that grip contemporary american politics. they do not owe favors or paybacks to other politicians and special interests because they have not spent their careers in the political system. this allows governors with a business background to be results-oriented. this focus on policy outcomes, rather than partisan points, makes “ceo” governors the best qualified people to be a state’s chief executive. no government is not a business, so why would a business executive be a better leader of government than a politician or someone with government experience? the idea that government should be run like a business is a myth that will not die. the differences between business and government are glaringly obvious. for one, business' primary motive is to earn a profit. the primary goal of government is to serve citizens. second, businesses citizens look to governors to create jobs and economic development in their states. overall trade policy is negotiated between washington, d.c., and other countries. however, much of the competition for development within the united states takes place between different states and metropolitan yes commonwealth forum: do businesspeople make good chief executives? ment dysfunction. recent gop presidential candidate and former governor of florida jeb bush went straight from business into public office. under his leadership from 1999 to 2007, spending ballooned by 45 percent, but taxes were cut largely for the wealthy and corporations, increasing debt by over $8 billion. such results would not serve a business well, let alone the public sector. for more information the national governors association (nga) (http:// nga .org) represents the interests of the nation’s fifty-five governors of states, commonwealths, and territories. through the nga, governors share best practices, learn from each other, and develop policy solutions. its website has numerous news items and reports as they relate to the role of the state executive. rutgers university center on the american governor (http:// governors .rutgers .edu/) promotes research and discussion on the history and current role of governors with archived reports, videos, and analysis. the best job in politics: exploring how governors succeed as policy leaders (thousand oaks, ca: cq press, 2012), by alan rosenthal, explores the workings of state executives through interviews with governors and legislators. a legacy of leadership: governors and american history (philadelphia: university of pennsylvania press, 2008), edited by clayton mcclure brooks, presents the position of governor in historical context, demonstrating how the role has changed over time as a result of culture, the economy, and world events. can choose with whom they interact and their clientele. governments exists to serve all the people. third, businesses have a strictly top-down structure, with good reason. governments function on the basis of compromise on many levels, as they must weigh the outcomes of policies on the basis of how they would affect many groups and interests. furthermore, executives in government work for the people, not the other way around. finally (but by no means the only other reason), business decisions are private and, once made, require no public disclosure. governments undergo constant criti-cism from the public and the press, and they function in plain view. two recent examples show the inadequacy of business executives in the highest position of state government. first, governor bruce rauner of illinois was elected in 2014 with an extensive business background leading investment firms. however, the state went without a complete budget through fiscal years 2016, 2017, and into 2018. rauner’s leadership has meant governfrom pennsylvania politics and policy: a commonwealth reader, volume 1. edited by michelle j. atherton and j. wesley leckrone (philadelphia, temple university press, 2018). commonwealth: a journal of pennsylvania politics and policy frontmatter commonweal a journal of pennsylvania politics and p th olicy editor-in-chief j. wesley leckrone, widener university managing editor michelle j. atherton, temple university book review editor/ associate editor thomas j. baldino, wilkes university associate editors christopher borick, muhlenberg college paula a. duda holoviak, kutztown university joseph p. mclaughlin, jr., temple university editorial advisory board bruce caswell, rowan university beverly a. cigler, pennsylvania state university, harrisburg richardson dilworth, drexel university john j. kennedy, west chester university john kincaid, lafayette college joseph marbach, georgian court university david y. miller, university of pittsburgh megan mullin, duke university richard a. stafford, carnegie mellon university copy editor barbara crawford editorial assistant catherine long, widener university founding editor emeritus donald g. tannenbaum, gettysburg college editors emeritus thomas j. baldino, wilkes university gerard j. fitzpatrick, ursinus college published by temple university press on behalf of the pennsylvania political science association the pennsylvania political science association founded in 1939, the pennsylvania political science association (ppsa) is the nation’s oldest state political science association. its mission has always been to promote scholarship, research, and the exchange of ideas within the pennsylvania community of political scientists. ppsa draws its membership principally from the political science and public administration faculties of pennsylvania’s public and private colleges and universities but also includes government professionals and faculty members from surrounding states. ppsa’s annual conference includes dozens of panelists covering a wide variety of subjects. while university faculty compose the vast majority of participants, legislators, legislative staff, executive officials, and undergraduates also have participated. for more information on the activities of ppsa and membership rates, please visit the association’s website at http://www.papolisci.org/. http://www.papolisci.org/%7bcomp the pennsylvania political science association officers and executive council 2016–2017 president steven peterson pennsylvania state university, harrisburg first vice president a. lanethea mathews-s chultz muhlenberg college second vice president michael greenberg shippensburg university treasurer steven b. lem kutztown university secretary paula a. duda holoviak kutztown university executive council 2014–2017 2015–2018 2016–2019 michelle demary susquehanna university kyle l. kreider wilkes university michelle j. atherton temple university heather frederick slippery rock university joseph p. mclaughlin, jr. temple university jennie sweet-cushman chatham college ex officio members immediate past president christopher borick muhlenberg college past president brooke harlowe lock haven university past president stanley berard lock haven university editorial staff of commonwealth: a journal of pennsylvania politics and policy editor in-chief j. wesley leckrone widener university book review editor & editor emeritus thomas j. baldino wilkes university editor emeritus gerard j. fitzpatrick ursinus college founding editor emeritus donald g. tannenbaum gettysburg college pennsylvania policy forum c ommonwealth collaborates with the pennsylvania policy forum to plan special issues and attract highquality content to the journal. the forum is a consortium of faculty members and academic and policy institute leaders from pennsylvania colleges and universities who share an interest in generating ideas, analyses, and symposiums that might prove useful to citizens, elected officials, and civic leaders in addressing major issues confronting the commonwealth and its local governments. as educators who have helped train students for careers in public policy, members also share an interest in helping to improve the skills, knowledge, and tools of leaders in the public and civic sectors. members of the forum have expertise in public policy analysis as well as a wide range of substantive issues, including but not limited to education, transportation and public infrastructure, economic development, agriculture, energy, elections, water policy and the environment, health care, social policy, urban development, emergency management, information technology, public finance, and constitutional law. members also share an interest in improving both the policy process itself and the institutional structures through which issues and problems are addressed. forum members have contributed to public policy debates in pennsylvania, and a number have also served in state and local government and in nonprofit and civic organizations that engage in policy development and implementation. some members of the forum are associated with other academic and public policy–related organizations, but the forum itself is independent of these relationships and has no formal connections to any government entity. members obviously benefit from the intellectual resources and environments of their universities, but unless otherwise indicated, they do not act on behalf of their institutions when they sponsor forum projects. the premise of the forum is that through the consortium, members can jointly develop and sponsor nonpartisan research, symposiums, and education and training programs of value to elected officials, civic leaders, and the public and thereby enhance their ability to contribute to more intelligent and informed policy making. pennsylvania policy forum membership (2016) theodore r. alter, professor of agricultural, environmental, and regional economics, pennsylvania state university michelle j. atherton, associate director, institute for public affairs, temple university thomas j. baldino, professor of political science, wilkes university michael cassidy, adjunct instructor of political science, temple university beverly a. cigler, professor of public policy and administration, pennsylvania state university, harrisburg richardson dilworth, associate professor of political science and director of the center for public policy, drexel university michael r. dimino, sr., associate professor of law, widener university commonwealth law school (chair) paula a. duda holoviak, professor of political science, kutztown university mark alan hughes, professor of practice at penndesign and faculty director of the kleinman center for energy policy, university of pennsylvania john j. kennedy, associate professor of political science, west chester university michael king, adjunct professor, albright college and temple university, and associate professor, pennsylvania state university (retired) robin lauermann, professor of politics and international relations, messiah college j. wesley leckrone, associate professor of political science, widener university nelson lim, executive director, fels institute of government, university of pennsylvania (vice chair) joseph p. mclaughlin, jr., director of the institute for public affairs, temple university david y. miller, associate professor and director of the innovation clinic, graduate school of public and international affairs, university of pittsburgh randall m. miller, professor of history, st. joseph’s university theresa miller, director, institute of politics, university of pittsburgh joseph sabino mistick, associate professor of law, duquesne university school of law richard a. stafford, distinguished service professor of public policy, heinz college, carnegie mellon university david b. thornburgh, executive director of the committee of seventy craig wheeland, associate vice president for academic affairs and professor, villanova university contents volume 19, number 1 | 2017 | issn 2469 7672 editor’s note ■ an introduction to the special issue on energy and the environment | christopher borick articles ■ leaving money on the table: pennsylvania exceptionalism in resisting energy severance taxes | rachel l. hampton and barry g. rabe ■ raised awareness of fracking in pennsylvania | philip j. harold and tony kerzmann ■ the great divide: public perceptions of shale gas extraction and hydraulic fracturing in pennsylvania and new york | erick lachapelle ■ wind development in pennsylvania: a reflection on state policy | sarah banas mills ■ solar renewable energy credit price volatility and investment returns: have policies stranded capital investment? | somayeh youssefi and patrick l. gurian ■ commonwealth forum: the politics of science or the science of politics | john arway commonwealth: a journal of pennsylvania politics and policy backmatter library recommendation form to: librarian/library acquisition committee from:_______________________________________________________________________________ position: ______________________________ department: ___________________________________ e-mail:_________________________________ phone: ________________________________________ i recommend that our library subscribe to the following journal: commonwealth: a journal of pennsylvania politics and policy published by temple university press on behalf of the pennsylvania political science association editor: j. wesley leckrone, widener university published online three times a year issn 2469-7672 https://tupjournals.temple.edu/index.php/commonwealth/index i recommend a subscription to commonwealth for the following reasons: r personal reference: i am a contributor to this publication and therefore require access to the research published in this journal. i will regularly recommend articles to my colleagues/students. r research: i require 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mail: jwleckrone@widener.edu guidelines for submitting manuscripts commonwealth is a peerr eviewed journal founded by the pennsylvania political science association in 1987. initially named commonwealth: a journal of political science, in 2016 the publication was retitled commonwealth: a journal of pennsylvania politics and policy. all ppsa members are entitled to access to commonwealth through temple university press’s website at https://tupjournals.temple.edu/index.php/commonwealth/index. commonwealth is seeking manuscripts across a broad range of topics related to the politics, policy, and political history of pennsylvania. the journal is interdisciplinary in nature, appealing to scholars and practitioners in fields such as political science, public administration, public policy, and history. commonwealth’s editorial staff, editorial review board, and referees maintain the highest standards of peer review and publication. we’re looking for the following types of content for commonwealth: ■ general articles on pennsylvania state and local government ■ multistate comparative analyses featuring pennsylvania or its regions ■ impacts of federal policies on the commonwealth ■ analyses of specific public policy issues ■ public administration and implementation politics in pennsylvania ■ pennsylvania political history ■ public law and the courts in the commonwealth ■ pennsylvania campaigns, elections, and public opinion ■ international relations with clear consequences for pennsylvania and its regions manuscripts should be submitted via em ail in microsoft word format. the preferred length is 15–30 doubles paced pages, including notes, references, tables, and appendices. format should follow the american political science association’s style manual for political science. for guidance, authors should consult previous issues of commonwealth, the american political science review, or the editor. additional information about submissions may be found on the temple university press website at https://tupjournals.temple.edu/index.php/commonwealth/index. manuscripts should be submitted as e mail attachments (no paper copies) to: https://tupjournals.temple.edu/index.php/commonwealth/index%7bcomp https://tupjournals.temple.edu/index.php/commonwealth/index.%7bcomp mailto:jwleckrone@widener.edu%7bcomp dr. tom baldino department of political science wilkes university wilkes barre, pa 18766 phone: 5704084474 e mail: thomas.baldino@wilkes.edu book reviews commonwealth will consider proposals for reviews of texts that examine politics and policy in pennsylvania. the books’ primary focus should be on the commonwealth, its regions, or local politics in the state. we also welcome proposals about books that place pennsylvania in a comparative context with other states in the region or country. reviews should not be undertaken until the book review editor has accepted a proposal. submit proposals and brief curriculum vitae to: mailto:thomas.baldino@wilkes.edu%7bcomp party identification, voter attitudes, and voter behavior in new jersey and pennsylvania 1980–2012: real difference or election law mirage? commonwealth, volume 20, issue 1 (2018). © 2018 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/com.v20i1.180. all rights reserved. party identification, voter attitudes, and voter behavior in new jersey and pennsylvania, 1980–2012 real difference or election law mirage? james e. vike widener university this study examines the extent to which pronounced differences in voter registration statistics between pennsylvania and new jersey are truly indicative of significant differences in political attitudes and voter behavior across citizens of these neighboring states. the analysis is based upon an examination of cumulative 1980–2012 american national election study (anes) survey data. although there is evidence that minor differences in partisan attachments exist, there is no evidence that these differences are manifest in diminished interest, efficacy, polarization levels, participation rates, or straight-ticket voting behavior. the central conclusion of this study is that the elevated tendency of new jersey voters to register as unaffiliated is less of a marker of greater independent orientations and more of an election law mirage that furthers a myth of mounting citizen independence from partisan affiliations. furthermore, these findings support the conclusion that a follow-up methodology for determining true partisan attachments among anes respondents is a more accurate predictor of partisan attitudes and behavior than methods relying upon an initial probe of self-identified partisanship or statewide voter registration statistics. a quick look at 2016 voter registration statistics in new jersey and pennsylvania highlights a dramatic difference in overt declarations of party affiliation among citizens of these neighboring states. voter 62 james e. vike registration data in the commonwealth of pennsylvania, a state with a closed primary system that restricts participation in primary elections to only those registered for a particular party, show that over 85% of registered voters affiliate with one of the two major parties. new jersey, on the other hand, features a modified closed primary system, where affiliated voters may only vote in their party primary but unaffiliated voters are free to choose in which primary they wish to participate.1 this difference in election participation policies has allowed 43% of new jersey voters to register as unaffiliated without relinquishing their option to participate in primary elections. figure 1 displays a detailed distribution of 2016 voter registration data between the two states. while both states have greater numbers of registered democrats than registered republicans, the difference in registration rates for unaffiliated voters is dramatic and worthy of further study. subsequent analysis of this disparity is necessary and important because a substantial volume of research has found meaningful linkages between party attachments and voter attitudes and behavior. 50 40 e 30 agt enc erp 20 10 0 pennsylvania  registered  voters  2016 new  jersey  registered  voters  2016 republicans independents/una/ne democrats figure 1. comparing voter registration statistics: pennsylvania and new jersey.* (source: voter registration data for the commonwealth of pennsylvania were derived from the pa department of state, voter registration division’s report of official voter registration statistics from november 8, 2016. voter registration data for new jersey were derived from the nj department of state, division of elections’ monthly voter registration summary report from november 7, 2016.) * to ease comparison with anes party identification data, percentages of individuals registered with other parties are not displayed in this chart. just over 5% of pa voters and less than 1% of nj voters were registered under a third-party banner in 2016. party identification, voter attitudes, and voter behavior in nj and pa 63 this study examines the extent to which these pronounced differences in voter registration actually indicate real and significant differences in voter attitudes and behavior. more specifically, this study examines cumulative 1980–2012 american national election study (anes) survey data from new jersey and pennsylvania to address the following question: is this disparity in unaffiliated party registration a marker of vastly different attitudes and behaviors among citizens of these states or merely a mirage produced by more liberal registration requirements that further a myth of citizen independence from partisan affiliations? the choice of factors for comparison is informed by numerous studies that have outlined a range of tangible differences across attitudinal and behavioral dimensions linked to the strength of partisan attachments (campbell et al. 1960; keith et al. 1992; lewis-beck et al. 2008; magleby, nelson, and westlye 2011; dalton 2013). if the differences in actual voter registration levels between the two states are truly indicative of differing partisan attachments, then we can expect the comparative analysis of anes data to highlight differences along these dimensions—with the more party-oriented citizens of the commonwealth of pennsylvania exhibiting higher rates of interest, efficacy, activism, and polarization than the supposedly more “independent-oriented” citizens of new jersey. methodological differences in tracking partisan identification there are two basic approaches to tracking party identification across the american electorate. one approach examines state-level voter registration statistics, while the other examines self-identification rates obtained through responses to survey questions. a solid majority of party identification scholars have tended to prefer the latter approach. the stated rationale for adopting this approach includes: (1) self-identification is deemed to be a more fitting and time-sensitive approach for measuring partisanship when defined as an individual’s psychological attachment to a particular party; (2) actual voter registration statistics are thought to potentially mask true attachments due to vastly different laws, traditions, and customs across the states; and (3) survey responses provide rich datasets enabling in-depth comparative analysis of voter affinities, attitudes, and behaviors. despite overwhelming reliance upon the self-identification approach in the scholarly community, there still remains some disagreement over the ideal method of tabulating voter attachments among survey respondents. at the core of the dispute is the sequence of two partisan self-identification questions posed in anes surveys, as originally outlined in the american voter (campbell et al. 1960). the initial question probing personal partisan 64 james e. vike attachments sorts respondents into three pools: democrats, republicans, and independents. a follow-up question probes either the strength of the partisan attachment or whether an independent leaned toward a particular party. the two question sequence has the effect of creating a seven-point scale of partisan identification. in-depth analysis of the resulting data led campbell and his colleagues to determine that partisan attachment was a crucial predictor of voter attitudes, preferences, and behavior. disagreements over this methodology emerged several decades later when scholars claimed that increasing numbers of self-identifying independents in the 1970s signaled a significant decline in partisanship in america and across other western democracies (wattenberg 1984; miller 1991; dalton and wattenberg 2000). these “party decline” scholars argued that a rise in the number of individuals identifying as independents in response to the initial survey query indicated a declining attachment to political parties within the electorate and subsequently signaled a diminished reliance upon partisanship as a cue for political attitudes and behavior. dalton (2013) more recently argues that an individual’s initial expression of disaffection from party attachments is a meaningful indicator of an enduring independent-oriented political identity and signals a greater propensity to eschew party-line voting over time. mcghee and krimm (2009) and dalton (2013) also rank among the small cohort of scholars who champion analysis of actual voter registration statistics as a preferred method of gauging partisan identification patterns among american voters. both point to modest increases in unaffiliated registrations in recent years as a sign that voters are becoming less sympathetic toward the major parties. mcghee and krimm additionally assert that the new independent voters are less polarized along partisan and ideological lines. the early claims of declining partisanship were summarily contested by a team of scholars charging that the apparent rise of independents was actually a product of misguided methodological choices (keith et al. 1992). the “myth of the independent voter” argument contends that partisan attachments have not really declined, because follow-up partisanship questions in anes surveys show that many self-identified independents clearly lean toward one particular party. they purport that true independents are less interested, less informed, express lower levels of polarization, and participate at substantially lower levels, but dispute that the rolls of independents are on the rise. several updated studies have reinforced this finding for more recent election cycles, showing that contemporary independent leaners exhibit attitudes and behaviors more in line with partisans than true independents (kaufmann, petrocik, and shaw 2008; petrocik 2009; magleby, nelson, and westlye 2011). a thorough reexamination of the original american voter study reaffirmed the contention that strength of partisan identification impacts party-line voting, party identification, voter attitudes, and voter behavior in nj and pa 65 candidate assessments, party assessments, interest in campaigns, and concern for election outcomes (lewis-beck et al. 2008). a common practice arising from this methodological dispute is to routinely track two different three-point scale measures of partisan identification: one relying upon the initial expression of partisan identification that places independent-leaners in the category of independent voters; and the other relying upon the follow-up responses that places independent-leaners with their party of preference. party identification variations in pennsylvania and new jersey of particular relevance for this study is the extent to which current pennsylvania and new jersey voter registration statistics highlight the dispute over the ideal manner for tabulating voter attachments in the united states. examination of official voter registration statistics shows that these two states closely track with nationwide trends across the dual partisan identification methodologies. figure 2 shows that actual voter registration rates in pennsylvania t enc erp 20 10 0 republicans independents/una/ne democrats anes  party  id  with  leaners  2012 50 40 e 30 ag pennsylvania  registered  voters  2016 figure 2. comparing partisan identification: anes 3-point scale with leaners and official pennsylvania registration statistics. (source: anes party identification data were derived from the anes 2012 time series study [available at www.electionstudy.org]. voter registration data for the commonwealth of pennsylvania were derived from the pa department of state, voter registration division’s report of official voter registration statistics from november 8, 2016.) 66 james e. vike closely reflect nationwide partisan distribution rates from the 2012 anes data when independent leaners are included as partisans. figure 3, on the other hand, shows that contemporary new jersey voter registration data are similar to the 2012 anes data when all self-identified independents are classified as independents. recognizing the clear distinction in partisan registration patterns across these two states and their similarities to the dual approaches to interpreting self-identified party affiliation offers an intriguing opportunity to re-examine the veracity of the “myth of the independent voter” thesis at the state level. comparative findings the following tables display findings across a range of party attachment, attitude, and behavioral factors examined in the statistical comparison between pennsylvania and new jersey citizens. partisan measures include the distribution of partisan identification in response to the initial partisanship probe, the partisanship distribution after independent leaners are merged figure 3. comparing partisan identification: anes 3-point scale without leaners and official new jersey registration statistics. (source: anes party identification data were derived from the anes 2012 time series study [available at www.electionstudy.org]. voter registration data for new jersey were derived from the nj department of state, division of elections’ monthly voter registration summary report from november 7, 2016.) 50 40 e 30 agt enc erp 20 10 0 republicans independents/una/ne democrats anes  party  id  without  leaners  2012 new  jersey  registered  voters  2016 party identification, voter attitudes, and voter behavior in nj and pa 67 with partisans, and the strength of partisan attachments. the examination of potential differences across attitudinal measures includes interest in elections, feelings of efficacy toward electoral outcomes, and levels of affective polarized thinking toward the major parties and presidential candidates. behavioral comparisons include attainment of political information, voter turnout rates, overall political activism levels, and party-line voting. table 1 collectively displays the empirical results across the range of comparisons. the initial intriguing finding is the apparent disconnect among the differences across the three dimensions. each of the three partisan attachment measures indicated statistically significant differences between the states, while only one of eight attitudinal and behavior measures indicated a statistical difference. at first glance, the significant differences in partisan attachments offers support for the view that new jersey’s more independent-friendly voter registration data is actually a marker of a less partisan state. levels of self-identified affinity to a particular political party are lower in new jersey when measured by the initial question and also once independent leaners are merged with party identifiers. although statistically significant, the chisquare values are actually quite low and will be examined more closely below. table 1. differences in party attachments, political attitudes, and voter behavior—pennsylvania and new jersey, 1980–2012 difference value degrees of freedom statistical significance partisan measures party identification (initial) χ2 = 24.754 2 0.000*** party identification (leaners as partisans) χ2 = 9.589 2 0.008** strength of party attachments χ2 = 30.717 3 0.000*** attitudinal measures interest in elections χ2 = 2.061 2 0.357 concern over election outcomes χ2 = 0.144 1 0.704 presidential candidate affect polarization χ2 = 8.000 4 0.092 political party assessment polarization f = 5.168 1 0.023* behavioral measures political information acquisition χ2 = 4.917 4 0.296 voter turnout χ2 = 3.309 1 0.069 political activism levels χ2 = 0.613 3 0.894 party-line voting χ2 = 3.030 1 0.082 source: american national election study, cumulative data file 1980–2012. *p < 0.05; **p < 0.01; ***p < 0.001 68 james e. vike the absence of statistical significance across three of the four attitudinal measures and all four behavioral measures is a startling finding given the findings relating to party identification. the nearly uniform absence of difference across attitudinal and behavioral measures is inconsistent with scholarly expectations if new jersey were actually to be considered a less partisan state than pennsylvania. distribution patterns relating to concern over the outcomes of the election and political activism levels are nearly identical between the states. while some minor differences are visible across state distributions of interest levels, candidate assessment polarization, voter turnout, and willingness to cast a split-ticket ballot, these differences do not meet the significance standard. these findings support a conclusion that there are virtually no differences between pennsylvania and new jersey citizens pertaining to political attitudes or electoral behavior. a more detailed look at the limited range of statistically significant findings is warranted to explore the nature and intensity of partisan and party polarization differences between pennsylvania and new jersey. table 2 highlights the partisan distributions of state respondents to the anes surveys over time. the table indicates comparative differences between the states, but also highlights the volatile impact that methodological choice has on efforts to track partisan identification. the percentage value in each cell represents the difference in the partisan identification rates between the initial breakdown based upon responses to the first partisanship question (initial) and the subsequent interpretation that counts partisan identification after independent leaners have been grouped with their party of preference (follow-up). this table shows that the methodological distinction is particularly impactful on new jersey, since the initial plurality of independent self-identifiers is attributable to the fact that over one-quarter of respondents can be classified as independent leaners. table 3 offers a more detailed breakdown of the statistically significant differences in the strength of self-classified partisan attachments between table 2. methodological impact on party identification rates, 1980–2012 new jersey pennsylvania party id (initial) party id (follow-up) change party id (initial) party id (follow-up) change democrats 29.1% 40.4% +11.3% 39.5% 48.5% +9.0% independents 43.5% 16.7% –26.8% 29.6% 11.8% –17.8% republicans 27.5% 42.9% +15.4% 30.9% 39.7% +8.8% source: american national election study, cumulative data file 1980–2012. party identification, voter attitudes, and voter behavior in nj and pa 69 table 3. distribution of strength of party identification, 1980–2012 nj pa total independents / apoliticals 87 16.7% 75 11.8% 159 14.0% independent leaners 136 27.0% 116 18.3% 252 22.2% weak partisans 161 32.0% 202 31.9% 363 32.0% strong partisans 122 24.3% 240 37.9% 362 31.9% total 503 100.0% 633 100.0% 1136 100.0% χ2 = 30.717, df = 3, sig = 0.000*, cramer’s v = 0.167 source: american national election study, cumulative data file 1980–2012. *p < 0.001 new jersey and pennsylvania citizens. this finding appears to reinforce disparate partisan inclinations represented through voter registration data. new jersey appears more authentically inclined toward independents, featuring a higher rate of pure independents (5% more) and independent leaners (9% more) than does pennsylvania. in turn, only one-quarter of new jersey citizens self-identify as strong partisans, compared to 38% of pennsylvanians. although the resulting chi-square value denotes a statistically significant difference in party affinity between the two states, the strength of the association is quite weak. the low (0.167) cramer’s v value indicates that party identification differences are certainly less dramatic than the initial scan of party registration statistics might project. table 4 displays a more detailed comparison of the only attitudinal measure showing a statistically significant difference between new jersey and table 4. party assessment polarization comparison 1980–2012 mean party standard polarization rating deviation f value significance eta value new jersey 28.95 25.65 (n = 496) 5.168 0.023* 0.068 pennsylvania 32.69 28.60 (n = 626) source: american national election study, cumulative data file 1980–2012. *p < 0.05 70 james e. vike pennsylvania citizens. the mean polarization value derived from the feeling thermometer ratings of the two major political parties shows that new jersey citizens are slightly less polarized in their assessments of the parties than pennsylvanians. the significance and eta values, however, indicate that this difference is substantially limited. when considered in tandem with the absence of significant difference in affect assessments of presidential candidates, it can safely be concluded that the pronounced differences in the overt registration patterns of citizens of the two states are not indicative of substantial differences in polarization levels. conclusions although statistical analysis does demonstrate that partisan affiliation differences in voter registration statistics between the states are representative of small variances in party attachment, the anticipated associations with diminished partisanship do not hold firm across attitudinal and behavioral measures. in particular, evidence of lesser partisan attachments in new jersey is not manifest through diminished interest, efficacy, polarization, participation rates, or straight-ticket voting behavior. the fact that disparities in partisan registrations between these two states do not foreshadow meaningful differences in political attitudes or voter behavior offers clear support for one perspective on the central question of this study. the elevated tendency of new jersey voters to register as unaffiliated is less of a marker of greater independent orientations and more of an election law mirage that furthers a myth of mounting citizen independence from partisan affiliations. furthermore, these findings support the conclusion that the follow-up methodology for determining true partisan attachments among anes respondents is a more accurate predictor of partisan attitudes and behavior than either the probe of self-identified partisanship or statewide voter registration statistics. note 1. the national conference of state legislatures provides an excellent accounting of variations in state primary election laws and policies. see http://www.ncsl.org/research/ elections-and-campaigns/primary-types.aspx for additional information about the categorization of state election systems. references campbell, angus, philip e. converse, warren e. miller, and donald e. stokes. 1960. the american voter. new york: wiley and sons. party identification, voter attitudes, and voter behavior in nj and pa 71 dalton, russell j., and martin wattenberg, eds. 2000. parties without partisans: political change in advanced industrial democracies. oxford: oxford university press. dalton, russell j. 2013. the apartisan american: dealignment and changing electoral politics. thousand oaks, ca: cq press. kaufmann, karen m., john r. petrocik, and daron r. shaw. 2008. unconventional wisdom: facts and myths about american voters. new york: oxford university press. keith, bruce, david magleby, candice nelson, elizabeth orr, mark westlye, and raymond wolfinger. 1992. the myth of the independent voter. berkeley: university of california press. lewis-beck, michael, william jacoby, helmut norpoth, and herbert weisberg. 2008. the american voter revisited. ann arbor: university of michigan press. magleby, david, candice nelson, and mark westlye. 2011. “the myth of the independent voter revisited.” in facing the challenge of democracy: exploration in the analysis of public opinion and political participation, eds. paul sniderman and benjamin highton. princeton, nj: princeton university press, 238–263. mcghee, eric, and daniel krimm. 2009. “party registration and the geography of party polarization.” polity 41 (july): 345–367. miller, warren e. 1991. “party identification, realignment, and party voting: back to basics.” american political science review 85 (june): 557–568. petrocik, john. 2009. “partisan identification: leaners are not independents.” electoral studies 28 (december): 562–572. wattenberg, martin. 1984. the decline of american political parties. cambridge, ma: harvard university press. james vike is an associate professor of political science and director of the master of public administration program at widener university. he also serves as campus program director for widener’s affiliation with project pericles. his research interests range from the study of bureaucratic politics to political participation and engagement. his publications include articles in commonwealth and politics & policy. the pennsylvania political science association the pennsylvania political science association founded in 1939, the pennsylvania political science association (ppsa) is the nation’s oldest state political science association. its mission has always been to promote scholarship, research, and the exchange of ideas within the pennsylvania community of political scientists. ppsa draws its membership principally from the political science and public administration faculties of pennsylvania’s public and private colleges and universities but also includes government professionals and faculty members from surrounding states. ppsa’s annual conference includes dozens of panelists covering a wide variety of subjects. while university faculty compose the vast majority of participants, legislators, legislative staff, executive officials, and undergraduates also have participated. for more information on the activities of ppsa and membership rates, please visit the association’s website at http://www.papolisci.org/. guidelines for submitting manuscripts commonwealth is a peer-reviewed journal founded by the pennsylvania political science association in 1987. initially named commonwealth: a journal of political science, in 2016 the publication was retitled commonwealth: a journal of pennsylvania politics and policy. all ppsa members are entitled to access to commonwealth through temple university press’s website at https:// tupjournals.temple.edu/index.php/commonwealth/index. commonwealth is seeking manuscripts across a broad range of topics related to the politics, policy, and political history of pennsylvania. the journal is interdisciplinary in nature, appealing to scholars and practitioners in fields such as political science, public administration, public policy, and history. commonwealth’s editorial staff, editorial review board, and referees maintain the highest standards of peer review and publication. we’re looking for the following types of content for commonwealth: ■ general articles on pennsylvania state and local government ■ multistate comparative analyses featuring pennsylvania or its regions ■ impacts of federal policies on the commonwealth ■ analyses of specific public policy issues ■ public administration and implementation politics in pennsylvania ■ pennsylvania political history ■ public law and the courts in the commonwealth ■ pennsylvania campaigns, elections, and public opinion ■ international relations with clear consequences for pennsylvania and its regions commonwealth, volume 18, issue 1 (june 2016). © 2016 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/cjppp.v18i1.99. all rights reserved. manuscripts should be submitted via e-mail in microsoft word format. the preferred length is 15–30 double-spaced pages, including notes, references, tables, and appendices. format should follow the american political science association’s style manual for political science. for guidance, authors should consult previous issues of commonwealth, the american political science review, or the editor. additional information about submissions may be found on the temple university press website at https://tupjournals.temple.edu/index.php/commonwealth/index. manuscripts should be submitted as e-mail attachments (no paper copies) to: dr. j. wesley leckrone department of political science widener university chester, pa 19013 phone: 610-499-4633 e-mail: jwleckrone@widener.edu book reviews commonwealth will consider proposals for reviews of texts that examine politics and policy in pennsylvania. the books’ primary focus should be on the commonwealth, its regions, or local politics in the state. we also welcome proposals about books that place pennsylvania in a comparative context with other states in the region or country. reviews should not be undertaken until the book review editor has accepted a proposal. submit proposals and brief curriculum vitae to: dr. tom baldino department of political science wilkes university wilkes-barre, pa 18766 phone: 570-408-4474 e-mail: thomas.baldino@wilkes.edu the pennsylvania prescription drug monitoring program commonwealth, volume 20, issue 1 (2018). © 2018 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/com.v20i2-3.191. all rights reserved. the pennsylvania prescription drug monitoring program reducing the misuse of prescription opioids lynn s. mirigian program evaluation research unit, university of pittsburgh school of pharmacy laura a. hendrick drug enforcement administration, philadelphia field division janice l. pringle program evaluation research unit, university of pittsburgh school of pharmacy michael a. zemaitis university of pittsburgh department of pharmaceutical sciences, university of pittsburgh health policy institute in 2016, 4,642 pennsylvanians died from a drug overdose and 85% of these deaths were due to an opioid overdose (u.s. drug enforcement administration and university of pittsburgh school of pharmacy 2017). with a 37% increase in deaths from 2015, the commonwealth’s response to this epidemic has come from several fronts. one valuable resource has been the modernization and implementation of pennsylvania’s prescription drug monitoring program (pdmp). pdmps are staterun programs that record dispensing of most controlled substances and provide this data to physicians and pharmacists (among others) to inform their practice about possible opioid use disorder by a given patient. this article discusses the role of pennsylvania’s pdmp in patient care and law enforcement to reduce opioid overdoses in the commonwealth. recent evidence is discussed that demonstrates the effectiveness of state-r un pdmps and their impact on opioid misuse and prescribing patterns. it is important to note that additional research into the effectiveness of pdmps in preventing opioidrelated morbidity and mortality is needed. 136 lynn s. mirigian, laura a. hendrick, janice l. pringle, and michael a. zemaitis opioid overdoses in the united states have evolved into a fullfledged public health and public safety crisis, associated with rising overdose death rates, detrimental social consequences, increased health and safetyrelated risk, and high economic costs. in fact, overdose deaths have nearly tripled from 1999 to 2014 and continue to rise (rudd et al. 2016). in 2015, it is estimated that over 52,000 overdose deaths occurred nationwide, with about twothirds related to opioid use (rudd et al. 2016). pennsylvania is clearly at the epicenter of the epidemic, with the sixth highest overdose rate in the united states in 2015 (rudd et al. 2016). in 2016, fatal overdoses rose by 37% in pennsylvania, totaling 4,642 people, with opioids (prescription, heroin, fentanyl, fentanylrelated substances, nonprescription synthetics) found in 85% of overdose fatalities, and prescription opioids found in 25% of overdose fatalities (u.s. drug enforcement administration and university of pittsburgh school of pharmacy 2017). nearly 3 million individuals in the united states are estimated to have an opioid use disorder involving prescription pain relievers or heroin (bose et al. 2016). opioid use disorders related to prescription pain medications are highest among adolescents and young adults, and approximately onethird of people 12 years and older who used drugs for the first time began with consuming a prescription drug nonmedically (bose et al. 2016; u.s. executive office of the president of the united states of america 2011). the role of prescription opioids in opioid use disorder and overdose lends itself to addressing prevention, intervention, and treatment efforts with prescribers and dispensers. several key initiatives in pennsylvania specific to prescribers and dispensers are underway (described elsewhere in this special issue), including development of an extensive series of prescribing guidelines by the department of drug and alcohol programs (ddap) and the pennsylvania medical society (pamed); issuance of a standing order to pennsylvania pharmacists to allow dispensing of naloxone to patients or third parties without a doctor’s prescription; and good samaritan legislation that safeguards individuals administering naloxone to save a life. this article will discuss the evolution and implementation of prescription drug monitoring programs (pdmps), both nationally and in pennsylvania. pdmps are state run programs that collect information on patients who receive controlled substances (see below) dispensed by a pharmacy or other dispenser. currently, all states have such programs. missouri, the last state to join, does have a limited pdmp law on the books as of july 17, 2017, but the program has not yet been implemented. the pennsylvania prescription drug monitoring program 137 controlled substances monitored by the pdmp pdmps do not monitor all medications prescribed to a given individual, only those that are classified as controlled substances. the controlled substances act (csa), a federal drug policy that regulates the manufacture and distribution of controlled substances such as hallucinogens, narcotics, depressants, and stimulants, was enacted into law in 1970. the csa categorizes drugs into five “schedules” or classifications based on their potential for abuse, status in international treaties, and any medical benefits they may provide, in descending order, with schedule i having the most potential harm (see table 1). the csa was initiated to enable the united states to comply with the requirements of two international treaties. the 1961 single convention on narcotic drugs and the 1971 convention on psychotropic substances treaties set a system for classifying controlled substances in accordance with binding scientific and medical findings through the csa, with two primary benefits. first, a schedule system makes it easier for state legislatures to enact criminal statutes by referring to the schedules rather than having to list all substances within the text of the law. enforcement of the provisions of the csa is a function of the drug enforcement administration (dea). second, a schedule system also makes it easier for drugs to be added and removed from a schedule rather than having to change an entire drug law. proceedings to add, delete, or change the schedule of a drug or other substance may be initiated by the drug enforcement administration (dea), the federal drug administration (fda), or by petition from any interested party, including the manufacturer table 1. schedule of controlled substances schedule i no currently accepted medical use; high abuse potential (e.g., lsd, ecstasy, marijuana) schedule ii accepted medical uses, but high abuse potential leading to psychological or physical dependence (e.g., morphine, oxycodone, methadone) schedule iii less abuse potential than schedule ii drugs (e.g., codeine [in limited amounts], buprenorphine, amphetamines, anabolic steroids) schedule iv lower abuse potential than above (e.g., alprazolam, diazepam) schedule v preparations containing limited quantities of certain narcotics (e.g., codeine-containing cough syrups) source: u.s. department of justice, drug enforcement administration, diversion control division. available at https://www.deadiversion.usdoj.gov/21cfr/21usc/812.htm. 138 lynn s. mirigian, laura a. hendrick, janice l. pringle, and michael a. zemaitis of a drug, a medical society or association, a pharmacy association, a public interest group concerned with drug misuse, a state or local government agency, or an individual citizen. as mentioned, the “drugs” monitored by a pdmp are controlled substances as defined by the csa; however, pdmps are state specific and the actual schedules monitored are determined by each individual program. the pennsylvania department of health (doh) administers the pdmp, and registration is mandatory for all prescribers and dispensers of schedule ii–v controlled substances. a brief history of the pdmp (1939–current) the first pdmp established in the united states was in california in 1939, followed by the hawaii program in 1943. between 1943 and 1990, seven other programs were established: illinois (1961), idaho (1967), pennsylvania (1972), new york (1972), rhode island (1978), texas (1981), and michigan (1988). early programs collected information on drugs currently equivalent to schedule ii drugs only, and all used some type of stateissued serialized prescription forms. multipage forms allowed one copy of the prescription to be sent to the pdmp monthly for data entry, while the pharmacy, and in most cases the prescriber, each kept a copy. reports were only provided to law enforcement, regulatory agencies, or professional licensing agencies. during the 1990s, seven additional states operationalized pdmps. during this time frame, several improvements occurred. first, oklahoma (1990), followed by hawaii and massachusetts (1992) became the first states to require electronic transmission of data, which increased accuracy and timeliness of submissions. second, several years after its establishment, the nevada (1997) program began to provide data to prescribers and pharmacists by fax, and eventually via an online system. since 2000, 49 states have either established, updated, or maintained pdmps. not surprisingly, programs during this time saw an increased use of electronic submission protocols and reports. since these programs are established and administered at the state level, there are differences between states, including housing of the program, funding, drug schedules collected, reporting requirements, collection of data for identified nonscheduled drugs, and which stakeholders have access to pdmp data. overall, current programs typically collect data on all schedules of controlled substances; report data to a centralized database within 1–3 days; and provide reports to physicians, pharmacists, law enforcement, licensing boards, and depending on the state, other appropriate groups. as time passes, more and more states are also requiring the pennsylvania prescription drug monitoring program 139 some form of mandatory use of the pdmp, most often prior to prescribing or dispensing opioids and other controlled substances. updated information on many characteristics of pdmps is available at the website of the national alliance for model state drug laws (namsdl). as one reads the history of pdmps, it appears that pennsylvania was a pioneer in the area with a program established in 1972. however, this observation is somewhat deceiving. although the other early implementers gradually increased the numbers of drugs reported and improved data access to health care practitioners, pennsylvania lagged behind for many years. the following section details the history and evolution of the pdmp in the commonwealth. the evolution of the pennsylvania pdmp (1972–present) pennsylvania passed title 28 pa consolidated statute, chapter 25, subchapter a, section 25.131 in 1972 to improve the ability of law enforcement to use controlled substance data. the “original” pdmp program required pharmacies to report to the office of the attorney general (oag) on triplicate paper forms to eight different regional offices around the commonwealth. in 2002, the oag operationalized an electronic prescription filing program for schedule ii controlled substances. although efficiency of data collection was improved with electronic filing, deficiencies were apparent: only schedule ii drugs were monitored, data was submitted monthly, and reports could only be queried by law enforcement and were not available to physicians and pharmacists. as other state programs were introduced and existing programs were updated, by 2012, pennsylvania was the only state that collected only schedule ii data monthly. recognizing the need to modernize, pdmp reform began in the 2011–12 legislative session with the introduction of hb 1651, sponsored by representative gene digirolamo (r-bucks). the bill proposed the establishment of the pharmaceutical accountability monitoring system (pams) to replace the program established in 1972. this legislation was referred to the committee on human services on august 6, 2011, and was laid on the table on february 6, 2012, without a floor vote. a second attempt to form the pams occurred during the 2012–13 legislative session. this attempt (hb 317) was also introduced by representative digirolamo and was also laid on the table on december 8, 2013, without a floor vote. the third attempt by the house to pass pams legislation took the form of hb 1694, sponsored by representative matt baker (r-tioga). the bill was introduced during the 2013–14 legislative session. third consideration and final passage of the bill occurred on october 21, 2013, and the bill was sent to 140 lynn s. mirigian, laura a. hendrick, janice l. pringle, and michael a. zemaitis the senate. the senate version of a pdmp took the form of sb 1180 sponsored by senator pat vance (r-cumberland). this bill renamed the pdmp as the achieving better care by monitoring all prescriptions (abcmap) act. the bill passed and was signed in the senate on october 16, 2014, signed in the house on october 20, 2014, and signed by governor corbett on october 27, 2014. abcmap subsequently became act 191, which currently defines the parameters of the pennsylvania pdmp. the program is housed in the department of health and began data collection in august 2016. the parameters of the pdmp (act 191) the pdmp monitors schedule ii–v controlled substances. medication assisted treatment (mat) providers are not required to submit data to the pennsylvania pdmp system. the two primary users of the pdmp system are the prescriber (a person who is licensed, registered, or otherwise lawfully authorized to distribute, dispense, or administer a controlled substance, other drug, or device in the course of professional practice or research in this commonwealth), and the dispenser (a person licensed to dispense in this commonwealth, including mailorder and internet sales of pharmaceuticals). both prescribers and dispensers are required to register and query the pdmp before prescribing or dispensing an opioid or benzodiazepine drug product under a set of predefined conditions available on the pdmp website. the pdmp is continually updated and improved to give prescribers and dispensers more advanced tools to help practice and streamline workflow. for example, in september 2017 the pdmp launched an initiative to integrate the pdmp system with the electronic health records (ehrs) and pharmacy management systems of all eligible health care entities in pennsylvania. according to the department of health (doh) website, “the goal is to minimize any workflow disruption by providing nearinstant and seamless access to critical prescription history information to both prescribers and pharmacists” (www .health.pa.gov). as an additional incentive, doh is covering the subscription fees associated with using this service for every health care entity in pennsylvania that elects to connect its health it system to the pdmp until august 31, 2019. any health care entity in pennsylvania that is legally authorized to prescribe, administer, or dispense controlled substances is eligible to apply for integration. applications for integration are available at the above website, and two health care entities have been integrated thus far. additionally, as of january 2018, the pennsylvania prescription drug monitoring program is sharing data with 16 other states and d.c., helping prescribers and pharmacists to obtain a more complete picture of their the pennsylvania prescription drug monitoring program 141 patients’ controlled substance prescription histories, regardless of where they filled their prescriptions. however, challenges in obtaining an accurate picture of patient histories still remain. hawk et al. found that, “although the pdmp can accurately reflect the history of prescription opioids of a patient, the ability to accurately differentiate between the phenotype of aberrant opioid use or opioid use disorder and that of untreated or undertreated pain based on pdmp information alone, particularly among patients who are uninsured or do not have a primary care provider, remains a challenge” (2017). evidence of pdmp effectiveness nationally, the pdmp has been shown to be effective in addressing opioid use disorder, reducing overdoses, and minimizing costs. first, the pdmp can reduce the volume of opioids accessible. a 30% reduction in the rate of schedule ii opioid prescriptions was observed in a review of 24 states that implemented statewide use of their pdmps (gugelmann and perrone 2011). second, the pdmp can increase early intervention strategies and/or referral of persons with possible opioid use disorder to treatment. a survey of rhode island and connecticut prescribers revealed that prescribers who conducted pdmp queries were more likely to follow up with patients suspected of harmful prescription drug use with drug screens or referrals to treatment (green et al. 2012). third, pdmps are associated with reduced overdose deaths. a 2016 national survey analyzed statistics for a one-y ear period, in which 49 states (all states but missouri) had implemented pdmps. state implementation of pdmp programs was associated with an average reduction of 1.12 opioid related overdose deaths per 100,000 in the year after implementation of the pdmp (patrick et al. 2016). as hopeful as these results are, hawk et al. caution physicians against relying too much on the pdmp when making crucial decisions about patient care. they say, “despite a small body of work suggesting a positive benefit of pdmps, multiple challenges limit the ability of pdmps to exert their full potential including robustness, ease of navigation and integration of electronic medical records, further research into how data associated with pdmps should influence clinical care, and changing physician attitudes regarding pdmp utilization” (2017). in pennsylvania, analysis of overdose death data from 2014 to 2016 indicated that prescription opioids were present in approximately 25% of overdose deaths during those years. in 2016, over half of all overdose deaths were attributed to fentanyl and fentanylrelated substances, which experienced a 130% increase from 2015 to 2016. it is important to note that fentanyl can 142 lynn s. mirigian, laura a. hendrick, janice l. pringle, and michael a. zemaitis be prescribed, but it is often synthesized and obtained illicitly. furthermore, deaths related to prescription opioids experienced the smallest percent increase (3% from 2015 to 2016) compared to other drug categories. in fact, in 2016, the percentage of overdose deaths that were attributed to prescription opioids remained relatively stable throughout the year. in the first quarter of 2016, prescription opioids were present in 31.3% of toxicology reports. in the second quarter of 2016, the percentage of prescription opioids fell to 27.4% of toxicology reports, followed by 27.5% in the third quarter of 2016. in the last quarter of 2016, prescription opioids were present in 22.5% of toxicology reports. the pdmp was introduced in august 2016, which may have contributed to the decrease in prescription opioidrelated deaths in q4 of 2016. it is important to note that these data are preliminary, and future studies should be conducted as more data becomes available. one year into implementation of the updated pdmp, about 97,000 users have registered as of january 2018. the program’s database has averaged approximately 53,000 searches on a weekday, and 9,000 searches on a weekend. as of september 2017, this utilization has decreased the number of patients who went to 5+ prescribers and 5+ dispenser/pharmacies in three months for schedule ii drugs by 89%. the number of youth that received prescriptions for painkillers with a morphine milligram equivalent greater than 100 mg per day has been reduced to 46% as of september 2017 (communication with pa doh pdmp office). facilitating effective use of the pdmp to improve patient care a provider can use the pdmp to improve patient care by discussing a patient’s prescriptions to make sure he/she is aware of how opioids are used in pain management and the risks and harms associated with therapy; engaging a patient in a discussion about when it would be appropriate to taper off of opioids or move to a lower dosage; monitoring total morphine milligram equivalents/day dosage of all current opioids; monitoring for signs and evidence of misuse and/or risky behavior for an early intervention; referring a patient to substance or opioid use disorder treatment, if necessary; avoiding any potentially harmful drug-d rug interactions (e.g., benzodiazepines); and discussing alternative pain management strategies before referring a patient to substance use disorder treatment. the pdmp provides an infrastructure to improve patient care; however, ongoing training and technical assistance are crucial to its use in the prescriber/dispenser workflow. to address this, the department of health (doh) the pennsylvania prescription drug monitoring program 143 has developed a stateoftheart educational system to support practitioner use of the pennsylvania pdmp to promote optimal participation and use by all providers and prescribers within the state. the educational system contains seven different modalities that touch on various aspects of the pdmp, including: importance to population health, workflow and clinical decisions, optimizing pain management, appropriate opioid prescribing, sud treatment, screening–brief intervention–referral to treatment (sbirt), and opioid tapering. in addition, materials and delivery of training for health care systems that address practices to build a culture of change around prescriber use of the pdmp have been created. the training consists of a cultural change assessment to aid health care systems in identifying and overcoming organizational barriers to effective implementation of the pdmp, followed by ongoing technical assistance to implement the pdmp after the assessment for pdmp implementation readiness. finally, some hospital systems within pennsylvania have created peertopeer physician mentoring programs to improve opioid prescribing patterns. the pdmp also provides valuable information to raise community awareness and to increase motivation to change prescribing practices. leveraging local opioid overdose prevention coalitions, efforts are underway to engage the prescribers/dispensers as well as the persons receiving prescriptions. prescriber/dispenser engagement is useful in disseminating the resources described in the paragraph above. at the public level, education revolves around teaching the basics of the pdmp, how and why it is used, how doctor’s appointments may change from the patient perspective, how pharmacy visits may change from the patient perspective, and other key information to ensure a smooth transition for patients. role of the pdmp in law enforcement law enforcement’s effective use of pdmp data facilitates identification and remediation of prescribers operating outside the scope of medical practice, as well as “doctorshopping” patients; as such, pdmp use by law enforcement can have a significant impact on the availability of diverted prescription drugs subsequently funneled into the illicit drug market. law enforcement analysis of pdmp data occurs during an active investigation of a suspected rogue practitioner. identifying patterns of prescribing outside the norm of a physician’s specialty, geographic area, or patient population base can be used in conjunction with traditional law enforcement techniques and other sources of information to determine the nature of criminal activity, if present. 144 lynn s. mirigian, laura a. hendrick, janice l. pringle, and michael a. zemaitis analysis of pdmp data at the macro, deidentified level by law enforcement allows for geospatial analysis regionally to identify prescribing levels based on population density, drug type, etc. also, combining data sources, such as prescription opioid prescribing rates, with prescription opioid–related overdose deaths, contributes to a greater understanding of the impact of diverted pharmaceutical availability that can then be leveraged into decisions regarding law enforcement strategies, multidisciplinary resource allocation, and implementation of public health interventions. future directions with the enactment of pennsylvania’s medical cannabis law (act 16), the pdmp program faces another challenge—namely, whether a query of the pdmp should also provide medical cannabis products being used by the patient. it would be beneficial to the purpose of the pdmp (improved patient care and aiding law enforcement) for practitioners and law enforcement to obtain data not only on cii–cv substances, but also on cannabis products when querying the pdmp. several obstacles exist to integration of the databases. the pdmp legislation in pennsylvania requires submission of data on controlled drugs classified as cii, ciii, civ, and cv. despite passage of medical cannabis legislation in 29 states, dry leaf products and dosage forms produced from cannabis remain classified by the dea as ci drugs (no accepted medical use). therefore, according to pennsylvania legislation, the department of health cannot directly include dispensing of cannabis products in the pdmp, since its classification is excluded from the legislation. the pdmp database and process already exist, and those for the medical cannabis registry are still being written. at the current time, there are no plans to directly integrate these databases so that an inquiry into either registry will produce data from both. as a partial solution, the medical cannabis legislation does require prescribers in pennsylvania to query the pdmp prior to recommending medical cannabis to a patient. interestingly, pennsylvania is not alone in this emerging dilemma. of currently operational medical cannabis programs, only two (connecticut and new york) provide medical cannabis information upon a query of the pdmp. they have done this by providing each dispensary and each cannabis product with unique identification numbers (similar to dea numbers and ndc product identification numbers) that can be entered into the appropriate fields of a pdmp submission. when cannabis products are dispensed, dispensaries submit these identification numbers and patient information directly to the pdmp, and these products then appear on the pdmp report. in addition, the pennsylvania prescription drug monitoring program 145 according to available information, the relatively new medical cannabis program in ohio plans to integrate information from cannabis dispensaries and pharmacies directly into one report when the program begins. of the remaining states permitting medical cannabis, only five have some partial integration like pennsylvania. in all others, there is no linkage of the databases, nor requirements for prescribers to query the cannabis registry when prescribing controlled substances. conclusion the pdmp continues to grow to meet the needs surrounding opioid prescribing and dispensing. first, the pdmp office is currently sharing data with 16 other states and d.c. for prescribers and dispensers to get a more complete picture of a patient’s controlled substance use. second, the pdmp office has begun to integrate the data system with electronic medical records, streamlining the data entry and checking processes. third, with the data obtained, it may be possible to identify potential risk factors based on number of prescribers or pharmacies, overlapping prescriptions, morphine equivalency, and other patient health history information. as stated earlier, further research is needed to determine the effectiveness of pdmps in evaluating patient histories and preventing death by overdose, and challenges still remain in the effective use of pdmps. hawk et al. stress “the importance of using screening, good history taking, clinician impression, and electronic medical records, in addition to using the pdmp to identify patients with opioid use disorder” (2017). references bose, j., s. hedden, r. lipari, e. parklee, j. porter, and m. pemberton. 2016. key substance use and mental health indicators in the united states: results from the 2015 national survey on drug use and health. rockville, md: center for behavioral health statistics and quality. green, t., m. mann, s. bowman, n zaller, x. soto, j. gadea, c. cordy, p. kelly, and p. friedmann. 2012. “how does use of a prescription drug monitoring program change medical practice?” pain medicine 13 (october): 1314–1323. gugelmann, h., and j. perrone. 2011. “can prescription drug monitoring programs help limit opioid abuse?” journal of the american medical association 306 (november): 2258–2259. hawk, k., g. d’onofrio, d. fiellin, m. chawarski, p. o’connor, p. owens, m. pantalon, and s. bernstein. 2017. “pastyear prescription drug monitoring program opioid prescriptions and selfreported opioid use in an emergency department population with opioid use disorder.” academic emergency medicine. patrick, s. w., c. e. fry, t. f. jones, and m. b. buntin. 2016. “implementation of prescription drug monitoring programs associated with reductions in opioid-r elated death rates.” health affairs (millwood) 35 (july): 1324–1332. 146 lynn s. mirigian, laura a. hendrick, janice l. pringle, and michael a. zemaitis pennsylvania department of health. pennsylvania prescription drug monitoring program. accessed january 22, 2018, from http://www.health.pa.gov/yourdepartment -of-health/offices%20and%20bureaus/paprescriptiondrugmonitoringprogram/ pages/home.aspx#.wuhswvmvylc. rudd, r. a., p. seth, f. david, and l. scholl. 2016. “increases in drug and opioidinvolved overdose deaths—united states, 2010–2015.” morbidity and mortality weekly report 65 (december): 1445–1452. u.s. drug enforcement administration and university of pittsburgh school of pharmacy. 2017. analysis of overdose deaths in pennsylvania, 2016. philadelphia: dea philadelphia division and the university of pittsburgh. u.s. executive office of the president of the united states of america. 2011. epidemic: responding to america’s prescription drug abuse crisis. washington dc: office of national drug control policy. lynn s. mirigian is the project director for the pennsylvania opioid overdose reduction technical assistance center (tac) at the program evaluation and research unit (peru) of the university of pittsburgh, school of pharmacy. she manages a dedicated team to fight the increasing issue of drug overdose deaths in the commonwealth. she earned her doctoral degree at the national institutes of health, where she researched biochemistry and cell biology. previously, dr. mirigian worked as a science policy manager in washington, d.c., where she conducted science policy research, marketing and administration of a peerreviewed journal, and scientific task force management. laura a. hendrick currently serves as the field intelligence manager for the drug enforcement administration (dea), u.s. department of justice, philadelphia field division. in this capacity, ms. hendrick oversees the development of tactical intelligence related to narcotics investigations, as well as the collection, analysis, and reporting of strategic intelligence related to drug trafficking trends and emerging trends in drug abuse in pennsylvania and delaware. ms. hendrick previously supervised the philadelphia/camden high intensity drug trafficking area (hidta) investigative support center and served as an intelligence analyst working jointly with dea special agents in conducting complex narcotics investigations. janice l. pringle is an epidemiologist by training, with extensive experience in health services research. she is a professor at the university of pittsburgh, school of pharmacy, and the founder and director of the program evaluation research unit (peru) within the university of pittsburgh, school of pharmacy. her area of expertise is health services research and organizational health. she has developed a framework for assessing organizational health and guiding systems transformation. dr. pringle has secured over $140 million in grants and has developed health care policy research that has been used to inform policy development at the state and federal levels. michael a. zemaitis is a professor of pharmaceutical sciences at the university of pittsburgh school of pharmacy. during the past several years, his research interests have shifted from basic pharmacology research to involvement in several policyrelated issues. these issues include: responses to the opioid epidemic in pennsylvania, enhanced availability of naloxone to treat opioid overdose, the establishment of a prescription drug monitoring program in the state, and current legislation and research opportunities related to the approval of medical marijuana in pennsylvania. the work is in conjunction with the university of pittsburgh health policy institute and institute of politics. governor wolf’s first year commonwealth, volume 18, issue 2 (2016). © 2016 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/cjppp.v18i2.113. all rights reserved. governor wolf’s first year a comparative analysis paula a. duda holoviak kutztown university thomas j. baldino wilkes university tom wolf ’s first year as governor was dominated by the challenges of reaching a budget compromise with the republicandominated general assembly. this article provides an overview of the difficulties and accomplishments of the first year of the wolf administration. the article draws a historical comparison with seven other governors—leader, scranton, shafer, shapp, thornburg, rendell, and corbett—four republicans and three democrats, and it concludes with some observations drawn from these previous governors’ experiences that may inform the wolf administration as it navigates its remaining years. by the end of 2015, approximately 30% of the public rated governor tom wolf ’s performance either good or excellent. but should the public’s approval rating be the only assessment of the wolf administration’s first year in office? to evaluate his achievements, we need to assess objectively and carefully his accomplishments from both a legislative and managerial perspective and to compare them to his original list of firstyear goals. moreover, governor wolf ’s performance must be placed in a context that allows for comparison with previous governors, as it is important to understand the political, social, and economic environments in which a chief executive governs. governor wolf’s first year 33 according to governor wolf ’s official blog, his firstyear’s theme was “jobs that pay, schools that teach and a government that works” (nicastre 2016). the governor’s office cites 27 specific accomplishments in his first year. table 1 provides a summary of the results by category. most notably, governor wolf expanded health choices to provide 500,000 people with health insurance through medicaid’s expansion. he initiated online voter registration resulting in 61,000 citizens either switching party or newly registering online. he allowed the phaseout of the 171yearold capital stock and foreign franchise tax, which was implemented under governor tom corbett, and he instituted a gift ban for all political appointees and state workers under his authority. he also created the heroin task force to address the opioid addiction crisis spreading across the state (bonner 2016). yet by december 2015, only about 30% of pennsylvanians rated his performance as good or excellent, a rating comparable to those of governors ed rendell and tom corbett at the conclusion of their first year in office (nicastre 2015; giammarise 2016). (see figure 1 for a comparison of four governors’ approval ratings.) unfortunately for governor wolf, his first year accomplishments were overshadowed by failure to reach a budget agreement with the republicancontrolled general assembly. republicans believed that he had overused the media, because on many occasions, wolf held press conferences during which he criticized the republican leadership. as senate majority leader jake corman (r) put it “his staff is still in campaign mode.” the table 1. governor wolf’s firstyear accomplishments innovation online plow truck tracking economy elimination of capital stock tax health care expansion of medicaid infrastructure bridge repairs transparency ban on gifts for executive branch employees public safety heroin task force improved state services elimination of means test for snap environment ban on drilling in state forests equality easier access to contract bidding education 76 schools that teach visits hunger/homelessness food security partnership www.governor.pa.gov/topic/yearreview. insource: from note: with the exception of the elimination of the capital stock tax, all accomplishments were achieved through executive action only. 34 paula a. duda holoviak and thomas j. baldino staff members referenced by senator corman were likely wolf ’s chiefof-s taff, katie mcginty, and his policy director, john hangar. republicans generally regarded both as excessively partisan, while many journalists and political analysts also noted their ideological passion rather than pragmatism as well as their propensity to draw attention to their personal actions rather than working quietly and anonymously behind the scenes. in fact, the majority of wolf ’s accomplishments involved executive and not legislative action (giammarise 2016; comisac and zwick 2016a, 2016b, 2016c, 2016d).1 the struggle over the fy16 budget was intense and dramatic and will likely be long remembered as a test of political wills between a republican party holding significantly large majorities in both houses of the general assembly and claiming an electoral mandate for its small government/no taxes agenda (but whose leadership was relatively inexperienced),2 and a novice politician in governor wolf, who also claimed a mandate because of his convincing victory over incumbent governor corbett. both sides had reason to dig in their heels and test the mettle of the other, for to experience defeat in this first major confrontation could result in the losing side feeling marginalized and being viewed as weak by the press and the public. the resulting delayed budget was not a surprise. research suggests that the factors most associated with late state budgets are divided government, a faltering economy, weak or no “shutdown” rules,3 and the governor’s request for higher taxes; all four factors were present in wolf ’s first year (klarner, phillips, and muckler 2010).4 figure 1. comparison of pennsylvania governors’ job performance ratings. (berwood yost, franklin and marshall college poll, center for opinion research, floyd institute for public policy, franklin and marshall college, 2016.) governor wolf’s first year 35 governor rendell experienced his own budget battle with the legislature during his first year, 2003. he sent a minimal, firststage fy04 budget that required no new taxes to the republicancontrolled general assembly in order to have a budget submitted on time. he expected that the legislature would not act on it until several weeks later when he submitted what was effectively a large, supplemental budget proposal that required higher taxes to support additional spending, largely for new education and economic development programs. to his dismay, the general assembly passed the frugal budget without even holding hearings, embarrassing the new governor. but rendell learned a lesson, recovered, and worked with the legislature to pass most of his policy agenda, including tax increases over the next seven years (giammarise 2016). compared to rendell or to any other governor in modern times, wolf ’s first budget proposal was extraordinarily ambitious. a former secretary of revenue under rendell, wolf sought a large increase in the state’s personal income tax, a significant broadening of the sales tax base, the closing of loopholes in the state’s business taxes, as well as a new tax on marcellus shale. he also proposed sweeping property tax relief. for wolf, negotiations began cordially with each side presenting its priorities. some areas for agreement and compromise appeared, particularly the desire to provide property tax relief. important side issues such as privatizing and/or modernizing the state liquor system, addressing the yawning unfunded liability in the state’s pension fund as well as reforming the pension system, imposing an extraction tax on marcellus shale gas, and increasing public school funding complicated the budget discussions. both sides eventually agreed that a $1.2 billion budget deficit existed, but there were differences over how to eliminate the deficit. republicans argued for more cuts in government spending, while wolf and fellow democrats in the general assembly supported tax increases and additional state spending, especially to support public education. it is important to remember that state funding for public schools was the major issue that differentiated governor corbett and candidate wolf in the 2014 campaign, with wolf vowing to restore state school funding to the levels governor rendell had achieved at the end of his administration, albeit with the use of onetime federal stimulus aid. wolf sought to add at least $1 billion more to the budget for education. when the budget talks stalled, with the threat of a government shutdown looming as the june 30 deadline approached, republicans passed their own budget, which, in a highly unusual action, governor wolf vetoed in its entirety. republicans claimed to be shocked, even though he had indicated that he would veto a republican budget (scolforo 2015a). 36 paula a. duda holoviak and thomas j. baldino the 2016 fiscal year began without a budget and talks continued intermittently through the fall and into the winter behind closed doors. in february 2016, the governor was forced to propose a budget for fiscal 2017 without an enacted budget for fiscal 2016, the first time such an event had occurred since governor milton shapp was forced to do so in 1971. however, shapp’s unfunded budget that year was the one that had been proposed by his predecessor, governor shaefer. wolf is thus the only governor since the 1968 constitution to have to propose a new budget with the enactment of his own currentyear budget. the governor, his staff, and surrogates criticized the republicans publicly using rather caustic terms. even more unusual, the governor’s political apparatus began attacking republican legislators in swing districts with direct mail to their constituents, infuriating the gop caucuses. republicans felt that wolf ’s tactics violated tradition in harrisburg and responded with attacks on the governor. by december 2015, however, a budget deal between wolf and the senate’s republican leadership emerged, but when the house republican leadership presented the budget to its caucus, the most conservative members killed the deal, because it would have required higher general fund taxes. recognizing that if the budget and required tax legislation were brought to the house floor, they might pass with a combination of maverick republicans and solid democratic votes, speaker mike turzai abruptly recognized a motion to adjourn. this time, it was wolf who felt shocked (scolforo 2015a). without a budget, nonessential state services and operations were halted, including funding for public schools. many school districts were forced to borrow money, while others reduced activities. the public backlash against the general assembly and the governor over their failure to deliver a budget was vocal and harsh, but neither side appeared willing to concede. pressure from parents, school boards, and teachers’ unions moved a bipartisan majority of the legislature to pass a $30 billion, no frills budget, with no tax increases that became law without the governor’s signature on march 28, an embarrassing and unprecedented outcome.5 this made wolf ’s budget late by 272 days, the second latest in pennsylvania since 1956 (stafford, et al. 2012, table b1) and the second to last budget enacted in the nation in fy 2016.6 unfortunately, the budget simply delayed the impending deficit for fiscal year 2017. currently, pennsylvania faces a roughly $2 billion deficit for the fiscal year ending in june 2017 (kiefer 2016). in addition to failing to enact a budget for nearly a year, the governor also was unsuccessful on other important issues. his goal of a severance tax on natural gas did not materialize; in fact, the 2016 budget contained no new taxes. the gopcontrolled general assembly passed one of its priorities, a governor wolf’s first year 37 pension reform bill, but wolf vetoed it, drawing the ire of republican leaders (anderson 2015). while education funding did not increase, a revised school funding formula developed by a bipartisan legislative commission established in the last year of the corbett administration and cochaired by republican legislators, was passed.7 beyond the struggle to achieve a budget, governor wolf also committed several missteps that contributed to his administration’s slow start and rocky relationship with republicans in the legislature. the first was his firing of eric arneson, governor corbett’s appointee to lead the office of open records, which administers the right to know law, as well as also recalling 28 nominations to boards, commissions, and judgeships announced by corbett shortly before he left office (worden 2015a). arneson, a former spokesperson for the senate majority caucus and a popular figure in the capitol, was instrumental in the design and passage of the open records act in 2008. arneson sued, and his case was heard by the commonwealth court, which found for arneson. of the other 28 corbett nominees, a compromise with the republican leadership was achieved and twelve of corbett’s nominees were approved. however, on may 7, 2015, senate republicans refused to take action on wolf ’s nominees (levy 2015; worden 2015b; scolforo 2015b). eventually, an accommodation was reached, and wolf ’s nominees began to be processed and confirmed as of this writing as well as more than 30 state judges to fill vacancies.8 the second miscue was naming marcus brown to lead the state police. brown, a state police commander from maryland, generated controversy when he wore the pennsylvania state police uniform despite not graduating from the state’s police academy and for pulling up lawn signs questioning his appointment. the state’s troopers association and senate republicans requested that wolf withdraw the nominee, but wolf refused. then on june 1, wolf announced he would withdraw the nomination, but the senate proceeded by a vote of 26 to 22 to reject the nominee. as an acting police commissioner, wolf was not required to fire brown, but he later moved brown to the department of homeland security and nominated col. tyree blocker, a retired state police commander, for the commissioner’s post (couloumbus and palmer 2015; esack, 2015). so given the political struggles and his unfinished agenda, how does the wolf administration stand up under historical scrutiny? while the constitutional changes of 1968 altered the budgeting landscape, it is instructive to examine more closely several governors prior to the constitutional convention, viz. governor george leader (1955–1959) and republican governors william scranton (1963–1967) and raymond shafer (1967–1971), as well as governors shapp (1971–1979), rendell (2003–2011), and corbett (2011–2015). 38 paula a. duda holoviak and thomas j. baldino leader was included because, like wolf, he was a democrat from york county who faced a republicandominated general assembly. scranton and shafer’s administration operated under the pre1968 state constitution, while shapp was the first governor under the current constitution. rendell and corbett, as his two immediate predecessors, set the stage for wolf and, in corbett’s case, dealt with the same political environment in the legislature. george leader came to power in an upset victory over the republican lieutenant governor lloyd h. wood, winning 54% of the vote, the biggest democratic sweep since 1857. leader, however, faced deep economic and fiscal challenges. the unemployment rate in the state was the highest since the great depression at 8.8% (and as high as 15% in the coal and steel regions). he inherited a $58.2 million budget deficit from the fine administration, and while the democrats controlled the house during his first two years in office, the republicans remained firmly in control of the senate. leader endured many epic budget battles during his four years in office. he first tried to balance the budget by enacting the highly unpopular personal income tax. the fight over the income tax proposal in his first budget went on for 17 months. during this time, the press turned against the governor, claiming the tax would hurt the working class. finally, in march 1956 a compromise was reached. the sales tax was raised to 3%, the corporate net income tax rose from 1% to 6%, and the gasoline tax rose one cent to six cents (beers 1971; phmc 2015). leader’s image was that of a progressive intellectual, a proponent of good government. he staffed his cabinet with college professors and policy wonks. he was a strong supporter of civil rights and the rights of the disabled. he angered his party by adding 10,000 civil service jobs to the state roster and weakening the patronage system. among his accomplishments were the creation of the department of administration, the pennsylvania industrial development authority (pida), and reform of the state’s mental health hospital system. although author paul beers dubs him “mister clean,” his administration was rife with scandal and he lost his bid for the u.s. senate in 1958 (beers 1980). governor scranton came to office after eight years of democratic dominance of the executive branch as well as much of pennsylvania and national politics. he was adept at melding the image of traditional republican values to a modestly liberal economic agenda. the republicans retook control of both the senate and house giving governor scranton a legislative advantage. scranton wisely allowed the legislature to avoid the issue of a statewide income tax. in his first year in office, he increased state spending by 38% and capital debt by nearly a third, but managed to fund the increased spending with governor wolf’s first year 39 politically palatable sales and business taxes, including taxes on liquor and cigarettes. with the extra millions, he increased school subsidies and teacher salaries, opened vocational technical schools and community colleges, and expanded the pennsylvania industrial development authority (pida). all of these legislative victories must be viewed in the light of single party government and a very robust pennsylvania economy. in fact, pennsylvania gained 528,000 jobs from 1963 to 1970, with an unemployment rate of 3.6% in 1966. governor raymond shafer took office in 1967 with an unblemished political career, victorious in elections for district attorney, state senator, lieutenant governor, and finally, governor. his last electoral success, however, proved to be a failure for the commonwealth. when shafer became governor, the state was running a $1-million-per-day deficit. although shafer had a majority in the general assembly during his first two years in office, he failed to remedy the government’s fiscal ills by having a state income tax passed. according to statistics from the pennsylvania economy league, by 1969 pennsylvania was running a $400 million deficit and was $242 million in debt. shafer’s experience mirrors that of the current governor. shafer was unable to pass a budget for 16 months (248 days, second longest after governor leader’s first budget), and he was unable to convince the general assembly to increase taxes to close the state’s budget deficit. the legislature refused to confirm shafer’s appointments. many blamed his inability to compromise or engage in legislative horse trading. but shafer was unfailingly moderate in his politics, continuing and enlarging the scranton legacy in education, welfare, and conservation. many, however, viewed his administration as a failure, leaving the commonwealth on the brink of bankruptcy. though shafer was the major force behind the constitutional convention of 1968, he wisely chose to have no role at the convention (beers 1980; phmc 2015). following the 1968 constitutional reforms, milton shapp became the first two-te rm governor in pennsylvania’s history. an idealist with no elective office experience, he was a selfmade millionaire. unfortunately, his administration, particularly in its second term, was riddled with corruption. despite his tireless efforts in 1972 following the flooding caused by hurricane agnes, and his ability to handle the financial woes of the commonwealth, he was perceived as an outsider and was highly unpopular within his own party by the end of his second term. nevertheless, he had notable legislative successes, including enactment of the first personal income tax; the establishment of a state lottery to fund free public transportation for senior citizens and property tax relief for lowincome seniors; no-f ault auto insurance; strong consumer protection laws; legislation to protect the rights of the mentally ill; the establishment of the “clean and green” program to preserve agricultural farmland; 40 paula a. duda holoviak and thomas j. baldino and an environmental amendment to the pennsylvania constitution. these were all ranked among the most important laws of the pennsylvania general assembly under the 1968 constitution in a 2010 temple survey of current and former legislators, political scientists, and journalists. indeed, the personal income tax was ranked the single most important law of the modern era in the temple survey (the temple papers on the pennsylvania general assembly, volume ii). on the other hand, shapp failed to achieve property tax reform, privatize liquor stores, or establish a free pennsylvania turnpike. in 1970 the democrats attained majorities in both houses of the general assembly, which allowed shapp to quickly push through his preferred progressive income tax early; however, it was overturned by the pennsylvania supreme court as a violation of the “uniformity clause” of the pennsylvania constitution. as noted above, shapp and the democratic legislature then enacted the flat tax that is still the commonwealth’s most important revenue producer. pennsylvania was the 43rd state to adopt an income tax. shapp used the veto liberally, but he was also overridden 15 times. governor shapp’s battles with the legislature on everything from abortion restrictions to the death penalty continued to the end of his second term (beers 1980; phmc 2015). moving to the twenty-f irst century and our two most recent governors, we find that the issues remain much the same, but the political arena has been forever changed because of the 24/7 news cycle, easier access to previously unavailable government information, passage of the open records act, emergence of social media as a political force, and the increasingly divisive and polarized politics on both left and right. reforming property taxes, achieving equitable funding for basic and higher education, reforming the criminal justice system, and protecting the environment persist on pennsylvania’s twentyfirst-c entury political agenda. in the past, governors were better able to control the distribution of their messages, as the number of news sources that covered harrisburg were relatively few, while today any person or group can gather information and post it online at any time. the rise of the tea party in pennsylvania, changing political alignments in philadelphia’s suburban counties, and the rightward drift of previously democratic counties in southwestern pennsylvania led to an east/west, conservative/liberal divide. governor ed rendell faced many of the same problems as his twentieth century predecessors. confronting a general assembly in republican hands, his first budget was completed six months late, with the enactment of school funding and a personal income tax increase making pennsylvania the last state in the nation to finish its budget. (see discussion of rendell’s 2003 budget above.) in fact, rendell never managed to complete a budget on time; the 2009 budget was also the last in the nation to be passed. however, when the ink governor wolf’s first year 41 dried on a giant supplemental appropriation that completed the first rendell budget, it included $1 billion in new revenues and a 10% increase in the state income tax. rendell used administrative cuts to create $1.75 billion in savings, which he used to increase funding for the state’s public schools. rendell was legendary for his larger than life personality, his willingness to speak frankly with the media on nearly any topic, and his ability to wheel and deal with the legislature. in the end, despite many political differences with the general assembly, his accomplishments included eliminating or cutting property taxes for the commonwealth’s senior citizens, bringing casino gambling to the state, increasing education funds, particularly for preschool education, and bringing sunday liquor sales to the state store system. despite his many noteworthy successes, however, he failed on several major issues that remain unresolved today. he could not expand the sales tax, privatize the pennsylvania turnpike to raise additional revenue, nor consolidate pennsylvania’s 501 school districts to 100 districts. perhaps rendell’s most troubling failure was his unwillingness to seek a severance tax on marcellus shale gas shortly after the rapid expansion of drilling and production from the new wells (pennlive editorial board 2015). governor tom corbett was elected to office with a reputation as a strong state prosecutor and corruption fighter. as pennsylvania’s attorney general, he empaneled a grand jury that indicted legislators of both parties and issued a strident—and many thought gratuitous—report blasting the general assembly’s culture and operations. he thus began his term as governor with a legislature that, although controlled by his party, regarded him as hostile to the institution. his relationships with legislators of both parties remained strained throughout his term. he departed office as pennsylvania’s first governor to lose reelection since the 1968 constitutional reforms that allowed the state’s governor to serve two terms. he campaigned as a pro business fiscal conservative and made the “no new taxes” pledge championed by grover norquist’s organization, americans for tax reform. corbett’s legacy is mixed at best. while he did cut state taxes, he also reduced funding for public education and social services in order to balance the budget, though in his last year, he did substantially increase the state’s subsidy to basic education.9 in the end, he increased a variety of state fees and raised the state’s excise tax on auto fuels to fund a $2 billion transportation program designed to repair the state’s deteriorating roads and bridges. he also accepted the federal offer to expand medicaid under the affordable care act, although only after obtaining a waiver that critics said left millions of federal dollars on the table and provided far less coverage for poor and workingclass families. achieving four of his major objectives—pension reform, liquor 42 paula a. duda holoviak and thomas j. baldino privatization, property tax elimination or reform, and the sale of the state’s lottery system to raise several billion dollars in new revenue—proved elusive, however, perhaps because of his reserved character and inability to communicate effectively with the public, at least in the opinion of many republican legislators. during his administration the state’s credit rating was downgraded four times (pennlive editorial board 2015). so what conclusions can we draw from an examination of the accomplishments and failures of the commonwealth’s governors since the 1950s? the following are a few conclusions and observations: • it does not necessarily appear to be an advantage to present oneself as a political outsider. additionally a successfully business career does not appear to translate into a successful political career. • a working relationship with the general assembly is critical. compromise is essential, as is a willingness to listen to and accept as legitimate the concerns of the legislature’s members. of course, this assumes that members of the general assembly are willing and able to compromise. knowing when to “hold ’em and fold ’em” is key, and having something to trade is even more important. • social media’s influence must be considered at every turn. it can make or break a governor, and like the forces of nature, it cannot be controlled. every legislative office can be its own public relations operation, which makes it very difficult for the governor to control the message that the public and the traditional media outlets receive. • government corruption is corrosive and will quickly diminish the legitimacy of a governor’s administration and undermine its credibility with the public. • while political division is nothing new to pennsylvania politics, the intense polarization confronting the wolf administration has taken division to a new level. the transformation of the general assembly’s membership since the pay raise vote and the bonusgate scandal of 2006–2007 has dramatically increased the difficulty of finding common ground with the legislature. it should be noted that if a major disaster or tragedy occurs during the first few years in office, and if the response to the disaster is handled properly, a governor may benefit. for example, after just eight months in office, governor scranton faced a national tragedy and political upheaval with the assassination of president kennedy. governor shapp dealt with hurricane governor wolf’s first year 43 agnes and the total devastation along the susquehanna river, including the flooding of the governor’s mansion. governor thornburgh experienced the nation’s first nuclear disaster at three mile island in 1979. and of course, governor ridge had to respond to the devastation and the public’s fear following the 9/11 attacks, which included the downing of flight 93 in somerset county, pennsylvania. during emergencies, the public turns to the governor for leadership and will rally behind a governor who demonstrates competence, composure, and decisiveness. this improves the governor’s chances of winning a second term. however, any natural disaster or emergency disrupts the normal flow of business in the capital and possibly across the entire state, causing a governor to delay or entirely eliminate one or more major items from the governor’s policy agenda. few governors would wish for such catastrophes to occur on their watch. to date, while governor wolf has experienced political challenges, most particularly from the tea party wing of the republicancontrolled legislature, he has yet to face a significant disaster, tragedy, or even severe economic downturn, though a winter snowstorm that stranded motorists on the pennsylvania turnpike did prove embarrassing. governor wolf’s legacy thus far is mixed. unless he can resolve some of the unfinished business of the corbett administration, namely pension reform, property tax reform, closing the budget deficit, and education funding reform, future generations may evaluate the wolf administration as less than successful. political corruption and much-needed campaign finance reform continue to dog the system generally as does a largely ineffective legislative branch. notes 1. in fairness, president obama also has been criticized for attempting to govern by executive action, given his difficulties in persuading a republican congress to move on his legislative agenda, a reflection of the polarized state of american politics. 2. new to their roles were senate majority leader jake corman, whip john gordner, appropriations chair pat browne, and house speaker mike turzai, majority leader dave reed, and whip bryan cutler. 3. pennsylvania’s “shut-d own” rules, bringing vital spending to a halt without enacted appropriations, were greatly weakened by the 2009 supreme court decision, council 13, ex rel. fillman v. rendell 986 a. 2d 63 (2009), which effectively relieved pressure on the governor and legislature to agree on a budget by continuing to fund most state programs. 4. for a fuller overview of the struggle to achieve a state budget, see comisac and zwick 2016a, 2016b, 2016c, and 2016d. 5. according to the pennsylvania policy database, only four bills since 1979 have become law without the governor’s signature, none having the significance of the general appropriations act. such rare actions sometimes reflect a governor’s judgment that a veto would be overridden. 44 paula a. duda holoviak and thomas j. baldino 6. only pennsylvania under governor wolf and illinois under governor bruce rauner lacked an fy 2016 state budget in the spring of 2016. wolf and rauner were both business executives new to elective office, who faced legislatures controlled by the opposition party. although most state programs were operating, rauner’s budget was still incomplete at year’s end. 7. the new school funding formula was widely praised by school officials and education advocates. the wolf administration and the advocates lost an effort to delay its implementation until after the corbett administration’s school spending cuts were restored. the new formula will incrementally increase funding each year, leaving in place large inequities in the distribution of school resources in pennsylvania accumulated over many years. 8. an anonymous source within the wolf administration provided information about the agreement between wolf and senate republicans. 9. governor corbett argued that his last budget did increase state support for basic education to record levels, because he used state money rather than the federal stimulus funds as rendell had. the stimulus money eventually ended, leaving the public schools short of money. references anderson, christian. 2015. “gov. wolf says he’ll veto gop pension bill.” pennlive, july 9. available at www.pennlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2015/gov_wolf_says_hell_veto_ gop_pe.html. accessed august 1, 2016. associated press. december 25, 2014. available at www.pennlive.com/politics/index .ssf/2014/12/what_will_history_say_of_gov_t.html. accessed august 1, 2016. beers, paul. 1971. the republican years: the scrantonshafer era of change and controversy from 1963 through 1970. harrisburg: stackpole books. ———. 1980. pennsylvania politics today and yesterday: the tolerable accommodation. university park: pennsylvania state university press. bonner, krystal. 2016. “27 results from governor wolf ’s first year in office.” january 21. available at www.governor.pa.gov/blog-27-results-from-governor-wolfs-first-year-in office. accessed august 1, 2016. comisac, chris, and kevin zwick. 2016a. “capitolwire: wolf yearone review, part 1— the budget impasse and pa’s new era of gridlock.”” capitolwire, april 4. available at www.capitolwire.com. accessed august 27, 2016. ———. 2016b. “capitolwire: wolf yearone review, part 2—a good start deteriorates quickly.” capitolwire, april 5. available at www.capitolwire.com. accessed august 27, 2016. ———. 2016c. “capitolwire: wolf yearone review, part 3—“too many cooks in the kitchen.’” capitolwire, april 6. available at www.capitolwire.com. accessed august 27, 2016. ———. 2016d. “capitolwire: wolf yearone review, part 4—the illfated compromise, a glimpse of things to come.” capitolwire, april 7. available at www.capitolwire.com. accessed august 27, 2016. couloumbis, angela, and chris palmer. 2015. “senate rejects wolf ’s state police nominee.” philadelphia inquirer, june 10. esack, steve. 2015. “pa senate rejects tom wolf ’s nominee for state police commissioner.” allentown morning call, july 3. giammarise, kate. 2016. “what defined tom wolf ’s first year in office.” pittsburgh post gazette, january 20. http://www.pennlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2015/gov_wolf_says_hell_veto_gop_pe.html http://www.pennlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2015/gov_wolf_says_hell_veto_gop_pe.html http://www.governor.pa.gov/blog-27-results-from-governor-wolfs-first-year-in-office http://www.governor.pa.gov/blog-27-results-from-governor-wolfs-first-year-in-office http://www.capitolwire.com http://www.capitolwire.com http://www.capitolwire.com http://www.capitolwire.com governor wolf’s first year 45 kiefer, francine. 2016. “gridlock in states: why they’re mimicking d.c.” christian science monitor, april 18. klarner, karl e., justin h. phillips, and matt muckler. 2010. “the causes of fiscal stalemate.” presented at the annual meeting of the american political science association, washington, dc. levy, mark. 2015. “republicans begin casting critical eye on wolf ’s nominees.” philadelphia inquirer, january 21. nicastre, mark. 2016. “looking back on governor wolf ’s first year.” january 15. available at www.governor.pa.gov/blog-looking-back-on-governor-wolfs-first-year/. pennlive editorial board. 2011. “gov. ed rendell: in large part twoterm governor did what he said he would do.” pennlive, january 14. available at www.pennlive.com/ editorials/index.ssf/2011/01/gov_ed_rendell_in_large_part_t.html. accessed august 4, 2016. ———. 2015. “what will history say of governor corbett’s term in pennsylvania?” pennlive, december 25. available at www.pennlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2014/12/ what_will_history_say_of_gov_t.html. accessed august 4, 2016. pennsylvania historical and museum commission (phmc). 2015. available at www .phmc.state.pa/us/bah/dam. accessed august 1, 2016. scolforo, mark. 2015a. “state’s budget train wreck unfolded over past year.” citizens voice, october 5. ———. 2015b. “wolf, senate gop leaders face off over fate of 12 nominees.” washington times, may 8. stafford, richard a., joseph p. mclaughlin, jr., michelle j. atherton, megan mullin, and nathan shrader. 2012. “a discussion of topics related to the continuing evolution of the pennsylvania general assembly.” the temple papers on the pennsylvania general assembly. vol. iv. philadelphia: temple university institute for public affairs. worden, amy. 2015a. “governor wolf fires open records director and recalls corbett’s nominations.” philadelphia inquirer, january 24. ———. 2015b. “wolf and gop resolve nominee dispute.” philadelphia inquirer, february 26. paula a. duda holoviak, phd, is a professor in the department of political science and public administration at kutztown university and the program coordinator for the master of public administration degree. her research interests include state and local government with an emphasis on issues in rural pennsylvania. she is currently completing a book on pennsylvania politics with coauthor thomas j. baldino. thomas j. baldino, phd, is a professor of political science at wilkes university. he and coauthor kyle l. kreider of wilkes university have published three books on voting and elections, the most recent of which is an edited volume, minority voting in the united states. his current book project, with paula a. duda holoviak, concerns pennsylvania government and politics. http://www.governor.pa.gov/blog-looking-back-on-governor-wolfs-first-year/ http://www.pennlive.com/editorials/index.ssf/2011/01/gov_ed_rendell_in_large_part_t.html http://www.pennlive.com/editorials/index.ssf/2011/01/gov_ed_rendell_in_large_part_t.html http://www.pennlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2014/12/what_will_history_say_of_gov_t.html. accessedaugust http://www.pennlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2014/12/what_will_history_say_of_gov_t.html. accessedaugust http://www.phmc.state.pa/us/bah/dam http://www.phmc.state.pa/us/bah/dam commonwealth: a journal of pennsylvania politics and policy backmatter library recommendation form to: librarian/library acquisition committee from:_______________________________________________________________________________ position: ______________________________ department: ___________________________________ e-mail:_________________________________ phone: ________________________________________ i recommend that our library subscribe to the following journal: commonwealth: a journal of pennsylvania politics and policy published by temple university press on behalf of the pennsylvania political science association editor: j. wesley leckrone, widener university published online three times a year issn 2469-7672 https://tupjournals.temple.edu/index.php/commonwealth/index i recommend a subscription to commonwealth for the following reasons: r personal reference: i am a contributor to this publication and therefore require access to the research published in this journal. i will regularly recommend articles to my colleagues/students. r research: i require access to this publication to support my research and keep up-to-date with developments in the field. r student use: i plan to browse the contents of new 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association in 1987. initially named commonwealth: a journal of political science, in 2016 the publication was retitled commonwealth: a journal of pennsylvania politics and policy. all ppsa members are entitled to access to commonwealth through temple university press’s website at https://tupjournals.temple.edu/index.php/commonwealth/index. commonwealth is seeking manuscripts across a broad range of topics related to the politics, policy, and political history of pennsylvania. the journal is interdisciplinary in nature, appealing to scholars and practitioners in fields such as political science, public administration, public policy, and history. commonwealth’s editorial staff, editorial review board, and referees maintain the highest standards of peer review and publication. we’re looking for the following types of content for commonwealth: ■ general articles on pennsylvania state and local government ■ multistate comparative analyses featuring pennsylvania or its regions ■ impacts of federal policies on the commonwealth ■ analyses of specific public policy issues ■ public administration and implementation politics in pennsylvania ■ pennsylvania political history ■ public law and the courts in the commonwealth ■ pennsylvania campaigns, elections, and public opinion ■ international relations with clear consequences for pennsylvania and its regions manuscripts should be submitted via em ail in microsoft word format. the preferred length is 15–30 doubles paced pages, including notes, references, tables, and appendices. format should follow the american political science association’s style manual for political science. for guidance, authors should consult previous issues of commonwealth, the american political science review, or the editor. additional information about submissions may be found on the temple university press website at https://tupjournals.temple.edu/index.php/commonwealth/index. manuscripts should be submitted as e mail attachments (no paper copies) to: https://tupjournals.temple.edu/index.php/commonwealth/index%7bcomp https://tupjournals.temple.edu/index.php/commonwealth/index.%7bcomp mailto:jwleckrone@widener.edu%7bcomp dr. tom baldino department of political science wilkes university wilkes barre, pa 18766 phone: 5704084474 e mail: thomas.baldino@wilkes.edu book reviews commonwealth will consider proposals for reviews of texts that examine politics and policy in pennsylvania. the books’ primary focus should be on the commonwealth, its regions, or local politics in the state. we also welcome proposals about books that place pennsylvania in a comparative context with other states in the region or country. reviews should not be undertaken until the book review editor has accepted a proposal. submit proposals and brief curriculum vitae to: mailto:thomas.baldino@wilkes.edu%7bcomp commonwealth forum: addressing pennsylvania’s structural budget deficit commonwealth, volume 20, issue 1 (2018). © 2018 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/com.v20i1.177. all rights reserved. commonwealth forum addressing pennsylvania’s structural budget deficit in november 2016 pennsylvania’s independent fiscal office released a fiveyear projection of the health of the commonwealth’s economy and budget. the long-term estimates were not promising, as increasing expenditures outstripped existing sources of revenues. left unchanged, the status quo would result in a deficit of almost $3 billion in fiscal year 2021–2022. tackling this “structural deficit” is one of the most difficult issues facing the state of pennsylvania. given the current political climate it should come as no surprise that there is no consensus on resolving this problem. commonwealth invited representatives from two very different policy perspectives to provide their solutions to the structural deficit. we would like to thank bob dick of the commonwealth foundation and marc stier of the pennsylvania budget and policy center for addressing this important issue in the commonwealth forum. 4 bob dick revitalizing pennsylvania through government reform bob dick commonwealth foundation pennsylvania is in financial crisis. the growth in government spending, which has risen every year but one since 1970 (commonwealth foundation 2016), is at the heart of this crisis. as of july 2017, the commonwealth’s budget deficit is approximately $2.2 billion (levy 2017a)—a product of real and projected expenditures exceeding revenues in prior and current fiscal years. pennsylvania’s independent fiscal office (ifo 2016) projects this trend will continue through the 2021–2022 fiscal year absent significant policy changes (ryan 2017). the ifo isn’t the only organization with a bleak view of the state’s budget situation. the mercatus center recently released a report on the fiscal health of all 50 states, ranking them based on key metrics used to analyze shortand long-term solvency (norcross and gonzalez 2016). pennsylvania placed 46th, beating four other states and puerto rico, including illinois and new jersey— states beset with monumental financial challenges. standard & poor’s has also expressed concerns about pennsylvania’s fiscal condition, warning that unless the state passes a balanced budget and addresses the underlying causes of the structural budget deficit, it faces a possible credit rating downgrade (braun 2017). these warnings concern most everyone, but policymakers are divided over the solution. some believe raising taxes is necessary to fix pennsylvania’s finances. the most prominent and vocal advocate of this idea is governor tom wolf, who has proposed eight different tax hike plans over the course of three years (commonwealth foundation 2017a). his last budget proposal would have raised taxes by $1 billion while making modest reforms to control state spending (pennsylvania office of the budget 2017). in contrast, many fiscally conservative lawmakers prefer spending restraint in the general fund budget—which makes up approximately 40% of the state’s total operating budget—and reforms to bring about long-term fiscal stability. in april, house republicans passed a general fund budget that would have limited spending growth and required no tax hikes (dick 2017a). the state senate eventually amended the plan to include a larger spending increase. governor wolf allowed this plan to become law, despite lawmakers’ inability to raise enough revenue to balance the budget as of july 2017 (couloumbis and langley 2017). this is the second year in a row the state’s budget commonwealth forum 5 became law without sufficient revenues to pay for authorized spending (meyer 2017), though the move appears to violate legal and constitutional balanced budget mandates. how should lawmakers solve these intractable fiscal problems? first, they must reject tax increases, which stifle economic growth and destabilize the state’s finances. economic growth is key to turning the state’s budget situation around. any policies that could suppress this growth should be rejected. in testimony before the u.s. house of representatives committee on ways and means, economist jonathan williams compared job growth from march 2007–march 2017 in states without an income tax to states with the highest income taxes. he found no-income-tax states grew 28% faster than the highest-income-tax states. population also grew 111% faster in no-incometax states (williams 2017). these findings are not an aberration. dr. william mcbride authored a report on the effects of taxes on economic growth, which included a literature review of 26 studies on this topic—all but three of which concluded taxes negatively affect economic growth (2012). advocates of a more robust role for government see high taxes as a panacea, but a high tax burden can harm a state’s finances and economy (stansel, torra, and mcmahon 2016). indeed, the 10 states in the best fiscal condition— per the above-noted mercatus center report—had an average tax burden of 8.48% compared to 10.12% for the 10 states in the worst fiscal condition (tax foundation 2012). some of the highest-taxed states in the country—maryland, illinois, and new jersey—are in the worst fiscal shape, proof that high taxes won’t bring budget relief and will likely exacerbate budget difficulties. two recent examples illustrate this fact. the first is connecticut. to deal with budget deficits, the state—over five years—enacted the two largest tax increases in its history (fitch 2017). however, these increases could not keep up with spending growth, and lawmakers are now grappling with a $5.1 billion deficit (de avila 2017). in pennsylvania, lawmakers enacted a $650 million tax increase package in july 2016 (levy 2017b) to pay—in part—for a tremendous increase in government spending. it wasn’t enough. the state ended the fiscal year with a $1.5–$1.6 billion deficit (esack 2017). the tax not only failed to stabilize the commonwealth’s budget situation, it also closed dozens of small businesses (gonzalez 2017). these regrettable examples of counterproductive fiscal policy should serve as a warning to policymakers as they grapple with the tough decisions needed to rescue pennsylvania from financial ruin. policymakers can either let the economy grow or grow government. they can’t do both. 6 bob dick since tax hikes aren’t a viable solution, policymakers must focus on the spending side of pennsylvania’s balance sheet. critics of this approach tend to assert state government is “cut to the bone,” which means lawmakers have very few options—if any—to reduce government outlays. but a thorough review of the state’s total operating budget reveals numerous cost-saving opportunities. the following six broad solutions are not exhaustive but represent some of the most transformative options available to lawmakers. reform medicaid to encourage independence the pennsylvania department of human services (dhs), which houses most welfare programs, consumes approximately 39% of the general fund budget (pennsylvania house republican appropriations committee 2017). it is the most expensive department in the total operating budget (which includes federal funds and other “off budget” funding). according to the ifo, welfare spending will grow at 5.8% annually. in contrast, personal income growth will be just 4.3% (2016). if these trends are left unchecked, dhs will continue to outgrow the economy, requiring additional resources from taxpayers, who already labor under the 15th-highest tax burden in the country (tax foundation 2016). any effort to tackle the current fiscal crisis must focus on reducing poverty by redesigning the state’s welfare programs—specifically medicaid, the largest expense in the state budget. lawmakers can reform medicaid—a program that consistently underserves the poor (healthpocket 2015)—by converting it to a premium assistance support program. this would put medicaid recipients in charge of purchasing their own health insurance with allotted funds. state lawmakers have also advanced work requirements and copays for able-bodied adults and wealthy families (thompson 2017). work requirements combined with time limits on medicaid can help able-bodied adults transition away from government assistance and reduce lengthy waiting lists for those truly in need, without requiring new revenue. expand school choice in 2015–2016, the latest year for which data is available, the typical pennsylvania public school received approximately $16,500 per student in local, state, and federal funding. this represents a 16.5% increase over the past five years. pennsylvania ranks in the top 10 in education spending as of 2013– 2014 (commonwealth foundation 2017c). yet, lawmakers increase education spending year after year under the unproven assumption that more spending commonwealth forum 7 improves academic achievement. research, however, shows no correlation between academic achievement and education spending. who spends these dollars, not simply how much is spent, is the real difference-maker. if dollars are placed in the hands of parents via school choice programs, educational outcomes improve, and taxpayers save (forster 2016). pennsylvania’s two private school choice programs—the educational improvement tax credit (eitc) and opportunity scholarship tax credit (ostc)—spend a fraction of what traditional public schools spend on a perstudent basis. in 2014–2015, average scholarship amounts for the eitc and ostc were $1,775 and $2,300 respectively. expanding these programs to more public school families would not only provide educational lifelines to thousands of students but also deliver cost savings for taxpayers. of course, this requires a paradigm shift for those under the mistaken assumption that a large government bureaucracy is necessary to adequately educate students. overhaul the criminal justice system at more than $2.3 billion, pennsylvania’s corrections system is the third largest expense in the general fund budget. although it has undergone significant changes over the last five years, more reforms are necessary. a recent report from justice reinvestment initiative (jri) working group (2017) notes the commonwealth can save more than $108 million over five years by reducing the prison population via several changes to the criminal justice system, including but not limited to the following: release prisoners once their minimum sentence has been completed. people inside the state’s prison facilities are often held past their minimum sentence—by an average of 5.3 months. this extra prison time costs taxpayers tens of millions of dollars and does little to reduce recidivism. releasing prisoners on time can save tax dollars without jeopardizing public safety. increase guidance provided by sentencing guidelines. current guidelines permit a wide range of sentences for the same crime, meaning sentences can be counterproductive or punitive. providing judges with more information on the efficacy of sentences (i.e., which sentences lower recidivism) should be a top priority. this way, judges can issue fair sentences based on all relevant information. the current system relegates too many to prison unfairly, making it more difficult for inmates to return to normal life. improve parole supervision. the jri working group proposes adopting admission criteria for community corrections facilities (also known as halfway houses) based on risk and parolees’ needs. the working group also suggests using short sanctions instead of incarceration for parole violators. the 8 bob dick former has proven effective in changing the behavior of violators and is a less expensive alternative to incarceration. these recommendations focus on an important goal: transitioning people from prison back to society while keeping low-risk offenders out of prison. a criminal justice system that promotes independence will help the commonwealth reduce incarceration costs while freeing resources to address more dangerous offenders who pose a threat to society. curtail state borrowing debt service is the fourth largest state expense behind welfare, education, and corrections. since 2002, total outstanding state general obligation debt has increased by 97%, from $6.8 billion to $12.3 billion. annual debt payments on general obligation bonds increased from $349 million in fy 2002–2003 to more than $1.1 billion in fy 2016–2017, a 218% jump (commonwealth foundation 2017c). this massive increase makes the department of treasury the fastest growing department over the last 15 years. to avoid adding to taxpayers’ debt load, lawmakers should limit or eliminate borrowing for some of the state’s nonessential programs. among these is the redevelopment assistance capital program (racp), which authorizes wasteful “economic development” projects across the state. some of the most infamous projects have included monuments to politicians, handouts to corporations, and subsidies for stadiums (benefield 2010). there is no evidence of this program boosting overall economic growth in the commonwealth. moreover, the program tends to favor the largest pennsylvania cities over smaller towns (millsap 2015). a cap on borrowing for public improvement projects (pip) is also critical. together, these two programs represent about 43% of gross debt service. eventually phasing out racp and putting strict limits on pip can help drive down the cost curve on state debt, freeing funds for other priorities such as law enforcement or tax relief. reduce or eliminate nonessential spending the commonwealth foundation recently identified more than $3 billion in available funds (dick 2017b) that could be redirected to balance the state’s general fund budget. these “off-budget” programs generally operate outside legislative scrutiny. they include corporate welfare programs—like nearly $250 million for the race horse development fund, which finances race commonwealth forum 9 purses (prizes) for horse owners—and more than $95 million for the keystone recreation, park and conservation fund, which provides appropriations for recreational activities and facilities. this fund has financed projects such as an african wild dog exhibit and an athletic fields feasibility study. this special interest spending is pervasive throughout the state budget and should be reduced or eliminated permanently. redirecting these and other funds can provide a stable source of revenue to truly balance the state’s general fund budget. enact budget safeguards too often, state spending is left unevaluated and grows without limit, to taxpayers’ detriment. lawmakers can implement two safeguards to end pennsylvania’s broken budget process. the first is performance-based budgeting, which would require an independent analysis of state programs to determine their effectiveness. if a program is deemed ineffective, based on certain objective criteria, it could be scheduled for elimination unless lawmakers vote to protect the program or reform it to address deficiencies. performance-based budgeting would take at least a portion of state spending off autopilot and require periodic examination of programs. it would also increase accountability, requiring lawmakers to go on record as defending or reforming a given program. state expenditure limits are the second safeguard. under this proposal, state spending would not be permitted to grow faster than the combined rate of inflation and population growth—known as the taxpayer protection act index. this proposal would require lawmakers to prioritize spending and ensure any surplus revenue is deposited in a rainy-day fund or used to reduce taxes. had state spending limits been in place since 2003, taxpayers would have saved a cumulative $29.4 billion or $2,300 per person. pennsylvania would also have ended the 2016–2017 fiscal year with an approximate $2 billion surplus. elected officials on both sides of the political aisle mistakenly believe pennsylvania has a revenue problem. this assumption has led to calls for higher taxes and borrowing to pay overdue bills. a closer look at the evidence reveals a different story. the state has failed to control spending for the last four and a half decades. policymakers in harrisburg must acknowledge this truth. only then can the state begin to repair its finances and implement pro-growth policies that will make pennsylvania the economic hub of the northeast. 10 bob dick references benefield, nathan. 2010. “the real problem with the specter library.” commonwealth foundation. july 13. available at https://www.commonwealthfoundation.org/issues/ detail/the-real-problem-with-the-specter-library. accessed july 28, 2017. braun, martin z. 2017. “s&p tells pennsylvania: balance budget or face rating downgrade.” bloomberg, july 6. available at https://www.bloomberg.com/news/ articles/2017-07-06/s-p-tells-pennsylvania-balance-budget-or-face-rating-downgrade. accessed july 14, 2017. commonwealth foundation. 2016. “tracking state budget trends.” december 2. available at https://www.commonwealthfoundation.org/issues/detail/tracking-state -budget-trends. accessed july 17, 2017. ———. 2017a. “policy points: pennsylvania’s debt burden.” june 15. available at https:// www.commonwealthfoundation.org/policyblog/detail/policy-points-pennsylvanias -debt-burden. accessed july 19, 2017. ———. 2017b. “the history of tom wolf ’s proposed tax hikes.” june 22. available at https://www.commonwealthfoundation.org/policyblog/detail/policy-memo-the -history-of-tom-wolfs-proposed-tax-hikes. accessed july 14, 2017. ———. 2017c. “education spending overview, 2015–16.” available at https://www .commonwealthfoundation.org/search/default.asp?q=education+spending&restrict= &orderby=2&dateorder=desc. accessed july 19, 2017. couloumbis, angela, and karen langley. 2017. “pa. lawmakers approve spending plan on time—but still no plan to pay for it.” philadelphia inquirer, june 30. available at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/state/pa-lawmakers-on-track-to -approve-spending-plan-on-time-20170630.html. accessed july 14, 2017. de avila, joseph. 2017. “connecticut, nation’s wealthiest state, may be tapped out on taxing the rich.” wall street journal, may 19. available at https://www.wsj.com/ articles/connecticut-nations-wealthiest-state-may-be-tapped-out-on-taxing-the -rich-1495186203. accessed july 17, 2017 dick, bob. 2017a. “house budget represents a step towards fiscal stewardship.” commonwealth foundation. april 4. available at https://www.commonwealthfoundation .org/policyblog/detail/house-budget-represents-a-step-towards-fiscal-stewardship. accessed july 14, 2017. ———. 2017b. the unrelenting demand for tax increases illustrates lessons unlearned.” commonwealth foundation. july 10. available at https://www.commonwealth foundation.org/policyblog/detail/the-unrelenting-demand-for-tax-increases -illustrates-lessons-unlearned. accessed july 17, 2017. esack, steve. 2017. “pennsylvania gov. tom wolf to let budget become law.” allentown morning call, july 10. available at http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/ pennsylvania/mc-nws-pa-budget-final-deadline-20170710-story.html. accessed july 17, 2017. fitch, mark e. 2017. “as connecticut residents flee fiscal mess, some take their jobs with them.” yankee institute for public policy. may 2. available at http://www .yankeeinstitute.org/2017/05/as-connecticut-residents-flee-fiscal-mess-some-take -their-jobs-with-them/. accessed july 17, 2017. forster, greg. 2016. “a win-win solution: the empirical evidence on school choice.” friedman foundation for educational choice. available at http://www.edchoice .org/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/a-win-win-solution-the-empirical-evidence -on-school-choice.pdf. accessed july 19, 2017. https://www.commonwealthfoundation.org/issues/detail/the-real-problem-with-the-specter-library https://www.commonwealthfoundation.org/issues/detail/the-real-problem-with-the-specter-library https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-06/s-p-tells-pennsylvania-balance-budget-or-face-rating-downgrade https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-06/s-p-tells-pennsylvania-balance-budget-or-face-rating-downgrade https://www.commonwealthfoundation.org/issues/detail/tracking-state-budget-trends https://www.commonwealthfoundation.org/issues/detail/tracking-state-budget-trends https://www.commonwealthfoundation.org/policyblog/detail/policy-points-pennsylvanias-debt-burden https://www.commonwealthfoundation.org/policyblog/detail/policy-points-pennsylvanias-debt-burden https://www.commonwealthfoundation.org/policyblog/detail/policy-points-pennsylvanias-debt-burden https://www.commonwealthfoundation.org/policyblog/detail/policy-memo-the-history-of-tom-wolfs-proposed-tax-hikes https://www.commonwealthfoundation.org/policyblog/detail/policy-memo-the-history-of-tom-wolfs-proposed-tax-hikes https://www.commonwealthfoundation.org/search/default.asp?q=education+spending&restrict=&orderby=2&dateorder=desc https://www.commonwealthfoundation.org/search/default.asp?q=education+spending&restrict=&orderby=2&dateorder=desc https://www.commonwealthfoundation.org/search/default.asp?q=education+spending&restrict=&orderby=2&dateorder=desc http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/state/pa-lawmakers-on-track-to-approve-spending-plan-on-time-20170630.html http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/state/pa-lawmakers-on-track-to-approve-spending-plan-on-time-20170630.html https://www.wsj.com/articles/connecticut-nations-wealthiest-state-may-be-tapped-out-on-taxing-the-rich-1495186203 https://www.wsj.com/articles/connecticut-nations-wealthiest-state-may-be-tapped-out-on-taxing-the-rich-1495186203 https://www.wsj.com/articles/connecticut-nations-wealthiest-state-may-be-tapped-out-on-taxing-the-rich-1495186203 https://www.commonwealthfoundation.org/policyblog/detail/house-budget-represents-a-step-towards-fiscal-stewardship https://www.commonwealthfoundation.org/policyblog/detail/house-budget-represents-a-step-towards-fiscal-stewardship https://www.commonwealthfoundation.org/policyblog/detail/the-unrelenting-demand-for-tax-increases-illustrates-lessons-unlearned https://www.commonwealthfoundation.org/policyblog/detail/the-unrelenting-demand-for-tax-increases-illustrates-lessons-unlearned https://www.commonwealthfoundation.org/policyblog/detail/the-unrelenting-demand-for-tax-increases-illustrates-lessons-unlearned http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/pennsylvania/mc-nws-pa-budget-final-deadline-20170710-story.html http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/pennsylvania/mc-nws-pa-budget-final-deadline-20170710-story.html http://www.yankeeinstitute.org/2017/05/as-connecticut-residents-flee-fiscal-mess-some-take-their-jobs-with-them/ http://www.yankeeinstitute.org/2017/05/as-connecticut-residents-flee-fiscal-mess-some-take-their-jobs-with-them/ http://www.yankeeinstitute.org/2017/05/as-connecticut-residents-flee-fiscal-mess-some-take-their-jobs-with-them/ http://www.edchoice.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/a-win-win-solution-the-empirical-evidence-on-school-choice.pdf http://www.edchoice.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/a-win-win-solution-the-empirical-evidence-on-school-choice.pdf http://www.edchoice.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/a-win-win-solution-the-empirical-evidence-on-school-choice.pdf commonwealth forum 11 gonzalez, junior. 2017. “vape shops close under 40 percent pa. tax.” york dispatch, march 2. available at http://www.yorkdispatch.com/story/news/2017/03/02/vape -shops-close-under-40-percent-pa-tax/98603910/. accessed july 17, 2017. healthpocket. 2015. “medicaid acceptance by healthcare provider drops to 1-out-of-3.” february 26. available at https://www.healthpocket.com/healthcare-research/infostat/ medicaid-acceptance-doctors-health-care-providers-2015#.ww9wxotyupp. accessed july 19, 2017. independent fiscal office. 2016. “economic and budget outlook, fiscal years 2016–17 to 2021–22.” november 15. available at http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=/ resources/documents/five_year_outlook_2016.pdf. accessed july 19, 2017. justice reinvestment initiative working group. 2017. “justice reinvestment in pennsylvania.” available at https://csgjusticecenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/6.26.17 _jr-in-pennsylvania.pdf. accessed july 19, 2017. levy, marc. 2017a. “pennsylvania sees biggest budget shortfall since recession.” associated press, may 2. available at https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/ pennsylvania/articles/2017-05-02/pennsylvania-sees-biggest-shortfall-since-recession. accessed july 17, 2017. ———. 2017b. “pennsylvania budget takes effect amid fight over funding it.” associated press, july 10. available at https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/pennsylvania/ articles/2017-07-10/last-day-arrives-for-wolf-to-act-on-32b-spending-bill. accessed july 14, 2017. mcbride, william. 2012. “what is the evidence on taxes and growth?” tax foundation. december 18. available at https://files.taxfoundation.org/legacy/docs/sr207.pdf. accessed july 17, 2017. meyer, katie. 2017. “for the second year in a row, pennsylvania passes an unbalanced budget.” wsea, july 11. available at http://wesa.fm/post/second-year-row-pennsylvania -passes-unbalanced-budget#stream/0. accessed july 14, 2017. millsap, adam a. 2015. “does pennsylvania’s redevelopment assistance capital program develop its economy?” mercatus center. available at https://www.mercatus.org/ system/files/millsap-pa-racp-1.pdf. accessed july 19, 2017. norcross, eileen, and olivia gonzalez. 2017. “ranking the states by fiscal condition.” mercatus center. available at https://www.mercatus.org/system/files/norcross -fiscalrankings-2017-mercatus-v1.pdf. accessed july 14, 2017. pennsylvania house republican appropriations committee. 2017. “2017–18 general fund budget, general fund state appropriations.” available at http://www .pabudget.com/display/sitefiles/154/documents/fy%202017-18%20gf%20budget/ hb%20218/2017-18%20gf%20budget%20tracking%20run.pdf. accessed july 19, 2017. pennsylvania office of the budget. 2017. “2017–18 governor’s executive budget.” available at http://www.budget.pa.gov/publicationsandreports/commonwealthbudget/ documents/2017-18%20proposed%20budget/2017-18%20budget%20document%20 -%20web.pdf. accessed july 14, 2017. ryan, mark. 2017. “pennsylvania’s fiscal and demographic outlook.” independent fiscal office. july 14. available at http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=/resources/ documents/presentation_lancaster_chamber_2017-07-14.pdf. accessed july 14, 2017. stansel, dean, josé torra, and fred mcmahon. 2016. “economic 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http://www.budget.pa.gov/publicationsandreports/commonwealthbudget/documents/2017-18%20proposed%20budget/2017-18%20budget%20document%20-%20web.pdf http://www.budget.pa.gov/publicationsandreports/commonwealthbudget/documents/2017-18%20proposed%20budget/2017-18%20budget%20document%20-%20web.pdf http://www.budget.pa.gov/publicationsandreports/commonwealthbudget/documents/2017-18%20proposed%20budget/2017-18%20budget%20document%20-%20web.pdf http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=/resources/documents/presentation_lancaster_chamber_2017-07-14.pdf http://www.ifo.state.pa.us/download.cfm?file=/resources/documents/presentation_lancaster_chamber_2017-07-14.pdf https://www.fraserinstitute.org/sites/default/files/economic-freedom-of-north-america-2016.pdf https://www.fraserinstitute.org/sites/default/files/economic-freedom-of-north-america-2016.pdf 12 bob dick tax foundation. 2016. “state-local tax burden rankings fy 2012.” january 20. available at https://taxfoundation.org/state-local-tax-burden-rankings-fy-2012/. accessed july 14, 2017. thompson, charles. 2017. “medicaid politics comes to harrisburg via pennsylvania’s state budget debate. pennlive, july 15. available at http://www.pennlive.com/ politics/index.ssf/2017/07/medicaid_politics_comes_to_har.html. accessed july 19, 2017. williams, jonathan. 2017. “united states house of representatives committee on ways and means written testimony.” american legislative exchange council. may 18. available at https://www.alec.org/article/united-states-house-of-representatives -committee-on-ways-and-means-written-testimony/. accessed july 14, 2017. bob dick is a senior policy analyst for the commonwealth foundation—pennsylvania’s free market think tank. his main areas of focus include fiscal policy and labor policy. his work has appeared in the pittsburgh tribune-review, harrisburg patriot news, allentown morning call, the intelligencer, the delaware county times, and the philadelphia inquirer. he graduated summa cum laude from neumann university with a degree in political science in 2012. https://taxfoundation.org/state-local-tax-burden-rankings-fy-2012/ http://www.pennlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/07/medicaid_politics_comes_to_har.html http://www.pennlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/07/medicaid_politics_comes_to_har.html https://www.alec.org/article/united-states-house-of-representatives-committee-on-ways-and-means-written-testimony/ https://www.alec.org/article/united-states-house-of-representatives-committee-on-ways-and-means-written-testimony/ commonwealth forum 13 the continuing pennsylvania crisis in perspective marc stier pennsylvania budget and policy center the rise of the right in pennsylvania politics fads there are fads in politics, like every other human endeavor. one such fad has, in the last 10 years, wreaked havoc with the finances of states in every part of the country—the claim that the path to prosperity can be found in relentless cutting of spending and taxes, especially taxes on business. the far right comes to pennsylvania during the late 1990s this ideology took hold here mainly but not entirely among republicans. even some democrats embraced the notion that reducing taxes, especially on corporations, might spur economic growth. as governor ed rendell was raising the personal income tax to fund increased education spending, he was cutting corporate taxes. republicans embraced the theory with a vengeance, promising everyone tax cuts, although most tax relief went to corporations. republicans could cut taxes at the federal level without concern for running up deficits. but in the states, tax cuts had to be balanced by spending cuts. so republicans needed a rationale for those cuts and came up with one— arguing, falsely, that public services were growing fast and were too expensive because public sector unions were receiving salaries and pensions far above those in the private sector. the corbett and wolf years the right takes advantage of the recession as late as the last years of the twentieth century, the republican party in the general assembly was fairly moderate, and leadership tended to come from centrists. but ideological shifts in the republican electorate and district lines that empower the far right have gradually led both the house and, to a lesser extent, the senate to move to the right. 14 marc stier when the great recession took hold and state tax revenues fell dramatically, right-wing republicans found their opportunity. in the last two years of his administration, federal stimulus funds enabled rendell to balance budgets without deep reductions in spending. but as those funds ran out, pennsylvania, like other states, was faced with the choice of raising new revenues or making deep cuts in state spending. the right found an accomplice in governor tom corbett, who embraced the far-right prescription of budget cutting. the result was deep reductions in every area. there was a $1 billion cut to state funding of k–12 education. and since pennsylvania had abandoned a funding formula for distributing money, those cuts were felt far more deeply in poor districts, especially urban but also some rural ones. the result was layoffs of over 20,000 teachers, guidance counselors, and librarians. pennsylvania schools, already undersupported by the state, came to be the most unequally funded schools in the country, with schools in the most prosperous 25% of districts spending 33% more than schools in the least prosperous 25% of districts. reductions of over 30% to higher education had similar effects. tuition went up in the pennsylvania state system of higher education (passhe) by 20%. the corbett administration cuts on top of a decade of neglect led pennsylvania to fall to fourth from the bottom of all states in funding per college student. in 2013 only 56.1% of pennsylvania adults 25 and over had more than a high school degree, ranking us 41st of 50 states. governor corbett and the right-wing general assembly also drastically reduced general assistance to the poor and increased waiting lists for childcare, mental health, and disability services. at a time when the growth of natural gas fracking demanded more from the department of environmental protection, it suffered similar reductions and today remains funded at roughly two-thirds the level it was before the great recession. spending on pennsylvania’s crumbling infrastructure also fell until, in the last year of the corbett administration, a coalition of business-minded republicans and democrats pushed through an increase in gas taxes to restore our roads, bridges, and transit systems. the state still remains near the top of the list of those with serious infrastructure problems. overall general fund spending in the 15 years before governor corbett averaged 4.7% of the state gdp. it fell by 7.25% to 4.33% during his years as governor. unfortunately for state finances, tax revenues fell by 8.25%, creating persistent deficits. the phase-out of the capital stock and franchise tax continued, and governor corbett took advantage of a change in federal law to reduce the corporate income tax in pennsylvania by about $300 million. commonwealth forum 15 perhaps more important, corbett and the extremist republicans refused to institute a severance tax on natural gas drilling. although the state has huge natural gas reserves that are relatively cheap to exploit, we remain the only state without a severance tax, costing pennsylvania billions in revenue during the corbett years and about $300 million a year since gas prices dropped. the wolf years governor corbett’s policies were repudiated at the polls in 2014 when he became the first pennsylvania governor ever to be defeated for reelection. but even though governor wolf promised to reverse the direction of the state, the general assembly continued to tilt even further to the right as a result of the impact of partisan redistricting and national political trends in 2014 and 2016. the republican general assembly has forced additional spending cuts, as general fund spending as a share of gdp continued to decline under governor wolf to 4.25%. even including special funds, spending as a share of gdp has fallen from 7.36% to 6.91% over 15 years. (it is misleading to include federal spending in pennsylvania for such things as medicaid and education in the total of state spending.) similarly, taxes continue to decline in pennsylvania as the state has fallen to 23rd among all states in taxes per capita. (again, it is misleading to count taxes paid by relatively well-off pennsylvanians to the federal government as part of state taxes.) the wolf administration’s effort to find over $1.5 billion in efficiencies has enabled it to direct more money to k–12 education, while also meeting mandatory cost increases in corrections, medicaid, and pension costs. the corbett cuts to education have been fully restored for the most prosperous school districts and partially restored for the least prosperous ones. while this is an important achievement, pennsylvania still needs to spend billions more to equitably and adequately fund every school. the wolf administration has also directed small increases to human services, especially for opioid addiction, child care, and services for the intellectually disabled, and for the passhe colleges and universities. recurring deficits despite these increases, budgets under governor wolf have remained austere, in no small part because the state has started each year with a deficit between $1 and $1.5 billion just to provide the same level of services as in the previous year. 16 marc stier the deficits have longand short-term causes. the long-term cause is the decline in tax revenues, especially from corporate taxes, which have fallen from 30% of all revenues in 1972 to 20% in 2006, to only 15% this year. if corporate taxes still made up 20% of all revenues, the state would bring in an additional $2.3 billion per year, enough to close the yearly budget deficit while also increasing public investment. the short-term cause of recurring deficits is that, except for increases in tobacco taxes in 2016–2017, the general assembly has refused to raise recurring revenues, preferring to balance the budget with one-year funds, such as the sales of licenses to sell liquor or promote gambling, and budget gimmicks such as borrowing from (or raiding) special funds that serve important state purposes, overestimating revenues, and shifting spending from one fiscal year to the next. republicans in the general assembly insist on balancing budgets with smoke and mirrors rather than real revenues for two ideologically based reasons. on the one hand, they oppose new taxes. on the other, continuing budget deficits serve as a political cudgel to force deeper cuts in spending. it can be an effective tactic, especially when paired with the false claim that spending increases, rather than tax reductions, are the main source of budget deficits. the failure of the right and another path economic distress in pennsylvania and beyond the united states conducted a natural experiment in political economy in the years after the great recession as some states responded to declining revenues with deep cuts in public spending and taxes while others raised taxes, especially on the rich, and increased spending especially for pre-k, k–12 and higher education. today, the states that raised taxes and spending, such as california and minnesota, are growing relatively fast, have balanced state budgets, and have rising wages. the states that cut spending and taxes, such as kansas and louisiana, have found themselves in a deepening morass as spending reductions have slowed their economies and wage growth and, together with tax cuts, further reduced revenues creating deep budget deficits. pennsylvania did not go as far as kansas and louisiana in cutting spending and taxes, but the cuts of the corbett years reduced economic growth and worsened deficits. and, together with our failure to raise the minimum wage, the decline in public investment in the state explains why wage growth commonwealth forum 17 remains below all of our neighboring states, especially for those in the bottom 20% of wage earners. a way forward the recent action by a bipartisan group of pennsylvania senators, to raise recurring revenues and institute a small severance tax to balance the budget for the current year, suggests that here, as in kansas, the right-wing taxand budget-cutting fever may be breaking. so perhaps the time has come to put forward another direction for the state. a growing body of evidence clearly shows that, far from harming the economy, public investment, especially in infrastructure and education at all levels, including training for those who do not go to college, is critical to economic growth and especially growth that benefits lowas well as high-income pennsylvanians. the question, however, is how to pay for investment in a way that is fair and politically palatable at a time when slow income growth for all but the top 1% makes tax increases unpopular. that’s a particularly difficult problem because we have a constitutional uniformity clause that prohibits graduated tax rates. as a result, we have one of the most inequitable tax systems in the country. families in the bottom quintile pay 12% of their income in state and local taxes, families in the middle quintile pay 10%, and those in the top 1% pay only 4.3%. to address that problem, we have supported closing corporate tax loopholes and a severance tax that in the next few years would bring in $1 billion a year. we have also called for a fair share tax that would increase the tax rate on income from wealth (capital gains, business profits, dividends, royalties, and estates) while reducing the rate on wages and interest. increasing the tax on income from wealth from the current 3.07% to 6.5% combined with reducing the rate on wages and interest to 2.8% would raise $2 billion, while cutting taxes for 60% of pennsylvanians and leaving taxes unchanged for another 25%. over 50% of the new revenue would come from the top 1%, and 82% would come from the top 5% of households. and yet taxes on the top 1% would remain below those of all neighboring states and half the rate of new york and new jersey. conclusion right now, pennsylvania’s government is torn between a republican general assembly that is still in the grip of radical right-wing ideas that mainly benefit the very rich and corporations and a democratic governor who recognizes 18 marc stier that broadly shared prosperity requires selective increases in public investment paid for by new, and equitable, taxation. it is up to the people of pennsylvania to choose between these two paths forward. marc stier serves as director of the pennsylvania budget and policy center. he has also served as the executive director of penn action, the pennsylvania director of health care for america now, and the health care campaign manager for seiu pennsylvania state council. stier has a bachelor’s degree from wesleyan university and a doctorate from harvard university, both in political science. he was an academic for 25 years and has taught at the university of alaska, fairbanks, city college of new york, the university of north carolina, charlotte, and temple university. stier is the author of numerous papers on political philosophy, the history of political thought, and american politics. he is the author of grassroots advocacy and health care reform, liberalism and communitarianism revisited and civilization and its contents: reflections on sex and the culture wars and co-editor of ambiguity in the western tradition. commonwealth volume 20 issue 1 2018 2018 the pennsylvania political science association: bob dick is a senior policy analyst for the commonwealth foundationpennsylvanias: marc stier serves as director of the pennsylvania budget and policy center he has also: commonwealth: a journal of pennsylvania politics and policy frontmatter commonweal a journal of pennsylvania politics and p th olicy editor-in-chief j. wesley leckrone, widener university book review editor/ associate editor thomas j. baldino, wilkes university associate editors michelle j. atherton, temple university christopher borick, muhlenberg college paula a. duda holoviak, kutztown university joseph p. mclaughlin, jr., temple university editorial advisory board bruce caswell, rowan university beverly a. cigler, pennsylvania state university, harrisburg richardson dilworth, drexel university john j. kennedy, west chester university john kincaid, lafayette college joseph marbach, georgian court university david y. miller, university of pittsburgh megan mullin, duke university richard a. stafford, carnegie mellon university copy editor barbara crawford editorial assistants nicole crossey, widener university benjamin klein, widener university founding editor emeritus donald g. tannenbaum, gettysburg college editors emeritus thomas j. baldino, wilkes university gerard j. fitzpatrick, ursinus college published by temple university press on behalf of the pennsylvania political science association the pennsylvania political science association founded in 1939, the pennsylvania political science association (ppsa) is the nation’s oldest state political science association. its mission has always been to promote scholarship, research, and the exchange of ideas within the pennsylvania community of political scientists. ppsa draws its membership principally from the political science and public administration faculties of pennsylvania’s public and private colleges and universities but also includes government professionals and faculty members from surrounding states. ppsa’s annual conference includes dozens of panelists covering a wide variety of subjects. while university faculty compose the vast majority of participants, legislators, legislative staff, executive officials, and undergraduates also have participated. for more information on the activities of ppsa and membership rates, please visit the association’s website at http://www.papolisci.org/. http://www.papolisci.org/%7bcomp the pennsylvania political science association officers and executive council 2016–2017 president steven peterson pennsylvania state university, harrisburg first vice president a. lanethea mathewsschultz muhlenberg college second vice president michael greenberg shippensburg university treasurer steven b. lem kutztown university secretary paula a. duda holoviak kutztown university executive council 2014–2017 michelle demary susquehanna university kyle l. kreider wilkes university 2015–2018 michelle j. atherton temple university heather frederick slippery rock university 2016–2019 joseph p. mclaughlin, jr. temple university jennie sweet cushman chatham college ex officio members immediate past president chris borick muhlenberg college past president brooke harlowe lock haven university past president stanley berard lock haven university editorial staff of commonwealth: a journal of pennsylvania politics and policy editorin-chief j. wesley leckrone widener university book review editor & editor emeritus thomas j. baldino wilkes university editor emeritus gerard j. fitzpatrick ursinus college founding editor emeritus donald g. tannenbaum gettysburg college pennsylvania policy forum c ommonwealth collaborates with the pennsylvania policy forum to plan special issues and attract high-q uality content to the journal. the forum is a consortium of faculty members and academic and policy institute leaders from pennsylvania colleges and universities who share an interest in generating ideas, analyses, and symposiums that might prove useful to citizens, elected officials, and civic leaders in addressing major issues confronting the commonwealth and its local governments. as educators who have helped train students for careers in public policy, members also share an interest in helping to improve the skills, knowledge, and tools of leaders in the public and civic sectors. members of the forum have expertise in public policy analysis as well as a wide range of substantive issues, including but not limited to education, transportation and public infrastructure, economic development, agriculture, energy, elections, water policy and the environment, health care, social policy, urban development, emergency management, information technology, public finance, and constitutional law. members also share an interest in improving both the policy process itself and the institutional structures through which issues and problems are addressed. forum members have contributed to public policy debates in pennsylvania, and a number have also served in state and local government and in nonprofit and civic organizations that engage in policy development and implementation. some members of the forum are associated with other academic and public policy–related organizations, but the forum itself is independent of these relationships and has no formal connections to any government entity. members obviously benefit from the intellectual resources and environments of their universities, but unless otherwise indicated, they do not act on behalf of their institutions when they sponsor forum projects. the premise of the forum is that through the consortium, members can jointly develop and sponsor nonpartisan research, symposiums, and education and training programs of value to elected officials, civic leaders, and the public and thereby enhance their ability to contribute to more intelligent and informed policy making. pennsylvania policy forum membership (2016) theodore r. alter, professor of agricultural, environmental, and regional economics, pennsylvania state university michelle j. atherton, associate director, institute for public affairs, temple university thomas j. baldino, professor of political science, wilkes university michael cassidy, adjunct instructor of political science, temple university beverly a. cigler, professor of public policy and administration, pennsylvania state university, harrisburg richardson dilworth, associate professor of political science and director of the center for public policy, drexel university michael r. dimino, sr., associate professor of law, widener university commonwealth law school (chair) paula a. duda holoviak, professor of political science, kutztown university mark alan hughes, professor of practice at penndesign and faculty director of the kleinman center for energy policy, university of pennsylvania john j. kennedy, associate professor of political science, west chester university michael king, adjunct professor, albright college and temple university, and associate professor, pennsylvania state university (retired) robin lauermann, professor of politics and international relations, messiah college j. wesley leckrone, associate professor of political science, widener university nelson lim, executive director, fels institute of government, university of pennsylvania (vice chair) joseph p. mclaughlin, jr., director of the institute for public affairs, temple university david y. miller, associate professor and director of the innovation clinic, graduate school of public and international affairs, university of pittsburgh randall m. miller, professor of history, st. joseph’s university theresa miller, director, institute of politics, university of pittsburgh joseph sabino mistick, associate professor of law, duquesne university school of law richard a. stafford, distinguished service professor of public policy, heinz college, carnegie mellon university david b. thornburgh, executive director of the committee of seventy craig wheeland, associate vice president for academic affairs and professor, villanova university contents volume 18, number 2 | 2016 | issn 2469-7 672 editor’s note ■ commonwealth matters | j. wesley leckrone, editorinchief articles ■ the limits of medicaid reform in pennsylvania: thinking regionally about access to insurance and health care under the affordable care act | michele moser deegan and a. lanethea mathewsschultz ■ governor wolf’s first year: a comparative analysis | paula a. duda holoviak and thomas j. baldino ■ sometimes it does matter: the 2016 presidential primary election in pennsylvania | john j. kennedy ■ the pennsylvania 2015 state supreme court election in comparative perspective | jenna becker kane research note ■ the women of the pennsylvania general assembly: explaining women’s representation in pennsylvania state politics | kathleen m. rogers book reviews ■ goelzhauser, greg. choosing state supreme court justices: merit selection and the consequences of institutional reform | kyle l. kreider ■ cowan, aaron. a nice place to visit: tourism and urban revitalization in the postwar rustbelt | j. wesley leckrone ■ longazel, jamie. undocumented fears: immigration and the politics of divide and conquer in hazleton, pennsylvania | david p. sosar book 1.indb commonwealth forum: should pennsylvania adopt a citizens’ redistricting commission to draw congressional districts? yes gerrymandering is a pernicious problem in politics, fueling the flames of partisanship currently endangering the very essence of our republic. in a representative democracy, citizens should be able to choose their elected officials, not the other way around. the congressional maps drawn by the republican legislature and governor’s office in 2011 were so blatantly based on party identification that they ended up being thrown out by the pennsylvania supreme court following a lawsuit in 2018. the districts were so carefully constructed to give republicans an unfair advantage that even though democrats received a slim majority of the votes for congress, republicans still won thirteen of the eighteen available seats. that means over 50 percent of voters preferred democrats, but they received only 28 percent of the total representation. such outcomes are outrageous and fly in the face of sound democratic principles. one solution to stop elected officials from choosing their voters is the implementation of a citizens’ commission to draw district maps. a citizens’ commission would be composed of average voters using modern and simple software to draw up the next set of congressional maps after the 2020 census. it would also take politics out of the equation, as the commission would be looking to draw fair maps based on communities of interest, various government boundaries, contiguity, and compactness. as the group fair districts pa, which advocates for such change, states, the process would be fair, transparent, and accountable. citizens’ commissions already exist in arkansas, arizona, california, idaho, montana, and washington. extreme gerrymandering leads to unrepresentative democracy or, in reality, no democracy at all. no the united s tates h as w itnessed a number o f r eform e ras w here g ood government groups have attempted to take partisanship out of politics. political primaries, nonpartisan elections, council-manager forms of local government, and direct democracy were all well-intentioned examples of the reform impulse. these changes have done little to make the system less contentious. the current reform du jour is setting up independent citizens’ commissions to stop partisan gerrymandering of legislative districts. advocates argue that groups of private citizens will create maps that are electorally competitive and that do not benefit one party at the expense of the other. thirteen states give the primary power over map making to variations of these commissions. however, partisanship still seeps into the process. for example, in the 2010 cycle of redistricting, colorado republicans argued that one of the independent commissioners was a closet democrat who swung the state legislative map to their opponents. idaho found itself mired in lawsuits after problems seating the membership of the commission and the inability of the commission to create a map by established deadlines. investigative reporting by propublica showed that california’s independent commission was influenced by a covert democratic campaign to influence map drawing during local hearings throughout the state. beyond not working as advertised, citizens’ commissions are inherently undemocratic because there is no way to hold them accountable. at least we can vote members of the state legislature out of office if we disagree with their actions. the best solution for dealing with gerrymandering is to require supermajorities of the state legislature to pass new maps. this would require working across the aisle to create a map that is acceptable to at least some members of the minority party. we can never completely rid politics of partisanship. however, this solution can smooth off the worst inclinations of the majority to use the redistricting process to their advantage. for more information fair districts pa (https:// www .fairdistrictspa .com) is a statewide organization committed to reforming the existing redistricting process in pennsylvania. their goal is to set up a citizens’ redistricting commission. the national conference of state legislatures (http:// www .ncsl .org/ research/ redistricting. aspx) provides overviews of how states redistrict, news about redistricting activities in the states, and webinars on the process of redistricting. pennsylvania redistricting: the legislative guide to redistricting in pennsylvania (http:// www .redistricting .state .pa .us) is the official state governmental website providing information about redistricting in the commonwealth as well as data and maps. from pennsylvania politics and policy: a commonwealth reader, volume 2. edited by michelle j. atherton and j. wesley leckrone (philadelphia, temple university press, 2019). organizational identity change in conservation law enforcement: lessons for pennsylvania commonwealth, volume 20, issue 1 (2018). © 2018 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/com.v20i1.178. all rights reserved. organizational identity change in conservation law enforcement lessons for pennsylvania michael j. mcskimming lock haven university of pennsylvania robert vance dunbar conservation officers of pennsylvania ahmet guler lamar university conservation officer safety has become a growing concern across the united states. this is particularly true since the scope of conservation law enforcement has expanded to include duties often relegated to more traditional law enforcement agencies such as state and local police. as a result, several states have changed the titles of their conservation officers to reflect a more police-oriented stature (e.g., conservation police officer). this study analyzes how a change in organizational identity, through a title change, impacts conservation officers, the general public, traditional law enforcement agencies, and governmental entities. the major findings suggest that those states that have changed the titles of their officers have experienced enhanced organizational legitimacy with natural resource users, other law enforcement agencies, and state legislatures. given these findings, this article argues that it would be advantageous for pennsylvania to at least consider making a title change for their conservation officers. it has been widely held that conservation officers are at a higher risk of assaults than traditional police officers. the problem is further exacerbated by the expanding scope of the enforcement responsibilities of conservation law enforcement over the last several years. more specifically, conservation law enforcement evolved from specializing in conservation-specific 20 michael j. mcskimming, robert vance dunbar, and ahmet guler infractions (e.g., hunting and fishing infractions, user safety, and resource protection) to an increased focus on drug offenses and other laws that were outside the scope of their duties (shelley, o’connor, and crow 2009). as a result of this shift in focus, research has suggested a correlation between increased assaults and use-of-force incidents with conservation officers who engage in general policing outside the scope of traditional conservation law enforcement (carter 2004; eliason 2006; eliason 2011; mcskimming and dunbar 2015; patten 2012). this unfortunate reality has prompted conservation law enforcement agencies to explore meaningful policy changes that would enhance the safety of their officers. for example, a number of conservation agencies in the united states eliminated their original title and adopted some form of police designation in their title (e.g., conservation police officer) (mcskimming and dunbar 2016; patten, crow, and shelley 2015). however, very little if anything is known about the effectiveness of a title change on officer legitimacy and safety. this article enhances the literature on conservation officer safety by addressing the following questions: (a) why have various states changed the titles of their officers? (b) what impact, if any, has the name change had? and (c) what issues, if any, do organizations experience in the change process? literature review organizational change conservation law enforcement is defined as a special type of policing that is mainly responsible for enforcing wildlife and fishing laws on public lands (national and state parks and forests) and waterways (lakes, rivers, and reservoirs) (eliason 2011; forsyth and forsyth 2009; palmer and bryant 1985). conservation officers (cos) are historically responsible for enforcing wildlife regulations in order to protect wildlife and other natural resources in the united states (falcone 2004; eliason 2007). when we examine the historical development of conservation law enforcement as a profession, we find the first state-level conservation agents responsible for protecting state parks and natural resources in michigan and missouri at the beginning of the twentieth century (falcone 2004). wildlife hunting and fishing as leisure activities were privileged activities of elite classes in the middle ages in england and later in the united states (nauright and parrish 2012). fundamental changes in american culture resulted in an increase in leisure time, which combined with the affordability of automobiles for the working class to create an increasing need for wildlife and fishing enforcement in the second half of the twentieth century in the united states (falcone 2004). organizational identity change in conservation law enforcement 21 in the united states, there are different titles such as “wildlife management agents, fish and game wardens, park rangers, conservation agents, natural resource police, and conservation police officers” (falcone 2004, 56) for the enforcement of wildlife and other natural resources laws at the state and federal levels. conservation officers or cos were generally placed under the management of the conservation department at the state level and under the responsibility of the united states fish and wildlife service at the federal level (falcone 2004). however, due to recent changes in the occupational responsibilities of cos and to respond to the changing nature of wildlife and natural resources enforcement, most states established a department of natural resources in the 1990s (eliason 2007; falcone 2004). according to researchers (chavez and tynon 2000; eliason 2007; falcone 2004; pendleton 2000; sherblom, keränen, and withers 2002), occupational responsibilities of cos have recently changed due to several factors. first, the recruitment and retention of hunters and anglers are declining and other nontraditional users of outdoor recreational areas (e.g., birdwatchers, hikers, and atv riders) are on the increase. these nontraditional users of state-controlled lands and waters are reshaping the enforcement duties of conservation officers and placing them at a greater risk for assault and use of force (shelley, o’connor, and crow 2009). second, crimes that are considered to be urban, such as drug possession and use, are now problems in rural areas, especially in national and state parks, forests, and waterways. finally, some researchers (carter 2006; shelley, o’connor, and crow 2009) highlight the role of occupational identity and organizational subculture and the increased emphasis on traditional law enforcement over that of wildlife and fishing law enforcement as reasons for changes in occupational responsibility. while seasoned conservation officers prefer to specialize in traditional wildlife and fish law enforcement, a new generation of officers emphasizes traditional law enforcement duties (shelley, o’connor, and crow 2009) rather than identifying as “game wardens,” “wildlife enforcement,” or “duck cops” (oliver and meier 2006). some scholars (eliason 2010; falcone 2004; shelley, o’connor, and crow 2009) define this change as an organizational transition from a specific wildlife enforcement role to a general law enforcement role. this transition has broadened the organizational roles and responsibilities of cos and their occupational title from being a game warden to a traditional police officer (eliason 2007; falcone 2004; forsyth 1994; patten 2012; shelley, o’connor, and crow 2009). due to these changes, cos have to deal with more traditional policing roles than before and they need to shift their attention and resources to law enforcement duties and responsibilities as their counterparts do in city police departments. however, as discussed in the literature (eliason 2014; patten 22 michael j. mcskimming, robert vance dunbar, and ahmet guler 2012; patten, crow, and shelley 2015), this shift in organizational role responsibilities, from wildlife and fish law enforcement to general law enforcement, creates some confusion, tension, and frustration among cos. these are the main issues discussed in organizational behavior literature relating to identity change. organizational identity the term “identity” has been the subject of research for psychologists and was recently applied to groups and organizations (brown 2001). organization members’ answers to “who are we as an organization?” and “who do we want to be as an organization?” (albert and whetten 1985) form the meaning of organizational identity in their minds (corley and gioia 2004). albert and whetten (1985) defined organizational identity as members’ beliefs about their organization’s central, distinctive, and enduring characteristics. ravasi and schultz (2006) stated that, although albert and whetten’s organizational identity definition is widely accepted among researchers, two different perspectives on organizational identity have emerged: social actor perspective and social constructivist perspective. according to the social actor perspective (ravasi and schultz 2006), which is theoretically based on institutional theory, organizational identity can be traced to official institutional claims because they define central, enduring, and distinctive features for organizations. as defined by gioia and chittipeddi (1991), there are two main identity-related actions during change process in organizations: sensegiving and sensemaking actions. while sensemaking actions happen when organizational members reevaluate and reinterpret their collective identity under changing circumstances, sensegiving actions include managerial efforts to present the new organizational identity to internal and external audiences (ravasi and schultz 2006). organizational leaders engage in sensegiving to influence their members’ perceptions of collective identity by providing them with consistent and legitimate narratives to construct their identity. on the other hand, social constructionists view organizational identity as a shared collective schema that is constructed through negotiation and sensemaking among organizational members. elstak (2008) argued that organizational identity has mainly been approached from the social constructivist point of view, while studies from the social actor perspective are rare. however, in order to understand the relationship between the perceived organizational identity and institutionally claimed identity, there should be more research about how organizational members interpret and negotiate institutionally claimed organizational identities. organizational identity change in conservation law enforcement 23 organizational members continuously interpret events in their surroundings to make sense of what is going on in their environment (apker 2004; weick 1979). sensemaking activities continually occur in organizations; however, when a surprise or change emerges, sensemaking becomes a more conscious and less automatic activity for organizational members to find the gap between their schema and existing reality (balogun and johnson 2005). organizational change is a catalyst for organizational members to engage in sensemaking collectively (apker 2004; maitlis 2005). balogun and johnson (2005) stated that, when individuals encounter a change in their organizations, they try to make sense of what is happening around them in order to adapt their cognitive understanding to a new state in the organization and find appropriate responses to a change initiative. according to corley and gioia (2004), change is challenging for organizational members because it disrupts organizational identity, which is the members’ collective sense about their organization’s distinctiveness and uniqueness. due to ambiguities and uncertainties in the change process, organizational members try to make sense of how new initiatives will affect their organizational identity in order to see whether changes fit their collective understanding of organizational identity. therefore, members’ sensemaking process will play a critical role in revising organizational reality embedded in organizational identity. moreover, gioia and chittipeddi (1991) state that to deal with environmental threats, organizations need to achieve a strategic change in organizational members’ way of thinking. gioia, thomas, clark, and chittipeddi (1994) defined this change as a cognitive reorientation of organization directly related to changes in identity. to achieve cognitive reorientation, organizational members—including top management—need to engage in sensemaking and sensegiving processes. while the sensemaking process helps participants experiencing strategic change to construct and reconstruct their collective identity, sensegiving serves as a tool to influence others (both insiders and outsiders of an organization) in redefining the organizational reality during the change process (gioia and chittipeddi 1991). in earlier studies, organizational identity was viewed as stable and resistant to change (fox-wolfgramm, boal, and hunt 1998). however, subsequent studies (chreim 2005; corley and gioia 2004; gioia, schultz, and corley 2000) suggested that organizational identity can be viewed as a f luid and unstable concept in order to explain adaptation and change in organizations. gioia, schultz, and corley (2000) referred to gagliardi’s explanation of “the firm must change in order to preserve its identity” (gagliardi 1986, 125), defining this explanation as a paradoxical statement because they think that, 24 michael j. mcskimming, robert vance dunbar, and ahmet guler if organizational identity needs to adapt to changes in its environment, it cannot be stable and rigid. moreover, gustafson and reger (1995) asserted that organizations need to engage in fundamental changes to be successful in the turbulent environment; however, at the same time, they have to maintain their organizational identity to provide stability and continuity for their members. similarly, fiol (2002) says that a paradoxical relationship exists between organizational identity and change. although organizational success depends on having a sense of strong identity among members, organizational change requires loose ties with organizational identity in order not to anchor too deeply into the features of organizational identity to initiate change. to cope with this paradoxical issue, corley and gioia (2003) argued that organizations maintain consistent labels to explain their identity while the meanings of these labels are continuously reinterpreted according to changes in the environment. thus, organizational members ensure a sense of continuity in their identity while being flexible by interpreting emergent issues differently. sensemaking is an important phenomenon for analyzing how individuals in an organization perceive organizational change (balogun and jenkins 2003; ericson 2001; gioia and chittipeddi 1991; isabella 1990). weick (1979) argued that no one accurate way exists for perceiving organizational change; rather, several interpretations can exist according to an individual’s sensemaking of change (apker 2004; grill and carver 2008; taylor 1999). gioia and thomas (1996) argued that members’ views about their organizational identity and image can result in varying interpretations of envisioned image and identity. due to their different roles and responsibilities, members can interpret change differently (gioia and chittipeddi 1991). top managers have more relationships with higher levels of the organizational environment, whereas rank-and-file employees interact with organizations’ actual customers on the ground, meaning that their sensegivers will signal different issues in changes and will make sense of changes in a different manner (taylor 1999). when a change occurs in an organization, members make more effort to make sense of what is going on because change challenges shared understanding, institutionalized practices, and organizational schemata (balogun and johnson 2005; george and jones 2001). in this study, we will analyze how a change in organizational identity, through a title change, impacts conservation officers, the general public, traditional law enforcement agencies, and governmental entities. more specifically, we will determine if such a title change provides more organizational legitimacy and safety for officers as they encounter a wider array of both resource and nonresource users. organizational identity change in conservation law enforcement 25 pennsylvania conservation officers pennsylvania is unique in that it is the only state where fish and game commissions are separated, run independently, and funded primarily through license and registration sales. the commissions are managed by commissioners appointed by the governor and confirmed by the senate. conservation officers of both agencies are empowered to enforce most state laws but are encouraged to concentrate on enforcing the laws within the title of their agency. fish officers and game officers do maintain a professional working relationship with each other as well as with officers from parks and forestry, but they normally turn over violations outside of their title rather than prosecute them. law enforcement of each agency consists of a bureau nested within what is primarily a non–law-enforcement agency. executive leadership consists principally of biologists and administrative personnel who have risen to the top of their bureaus. executive leadership including law enforcement personnel is better represented in the pennsylvania game commission than in the pennsylvania fish and boat commission due to the greater number of officers within that agency; game officers outnumber fish officers by roughly four to one. pennsylvania has 67 counties with an average of one fish officer and three game officers assigned to each county. the remaining officers are assigned to managerial and other duties. both agencies are struggling with vacancies and lack of funding to hire and train new officers. officers of both agencies belong to the fraternal order of police in the conservation police officers lodge and are issued reflective vests and other uniform items with the word “police” on them. administrators of both agencies have been reluctant to effect a title change to include the word “police.”1 methods data the data for this study were derived from 31 semistandardized interviews with personnel from conservation law enforcement agencies throughout the united states. these include agencies that have a police designation in their title (n = 16) and agencies that do not (n = 15). all agencies were identified through a simple search of “conservation law enforcement agencies by state.” initial phone calls were made to the listed agencies to determine (1) if the appropriate agency was contacted, and (2) if there was an individual within that agency who could offer assistance with the research. if the wrong agency was contacted, the person who was contacted pointed the researchers 26 michael j. mcskimming, robert vance dunbar, and ahmet guler in the right direction. in many cases, multiple calls had to be made. this was particularly true when it was unclear who would be in the best position to assist the researchers. after about three weeks of phone calls, a final sample (n = 50) of potential respondents was complete. however, not all potential participants were interviewed for the study. a first round of calls was made to all 50 designated officials. some interviews were conducted immediately, some were scheduled for another time, and in other instances, messages were left to call the researchers back. after approximately two weeks, a second attempt was made to reach those who were not available at the time of the initial call or who did not return the researchers’ initial calls. this round of calls yielded more interviews, and once again, messages were left for those who were not available. one final round of calls was made a week later. however, in this instance, no further messages were left to contact the researchers, and the researchers decided to use the sample size they were able to generate for final analysis. each participant was informed of the nature of the study, invited to participate in the study, and assured confidentiality. interviews interviews were conducted by telephone over four months. in many instances, interviews were audiotaped with the respondent’s permission and ranged from 20 minutes to one and one-half hours. interviews were conducted in comfortable locations for the respondents (e.g., office, home, in the field). all interviews were transcribed verbatim and data were analyzed using a standard form of thematic content analysis (berg 2007). for the purposes of this study, two interview schedules were created, for those states with a title change and for states without a title change (see appendices a and b). each instrument was worded specifically for the type of information desired and reflected differences between the agencies. researchers were careful to follow the scripted interview questions as closely as possible and asked follow-up questions when appropriate. results states with a police title a majority of states that have a police designation for their officers, such as conservation police officer, natural resource police officer, environmental police officer, environmental conservation police officer, wildlife conservation law enforcement officer, and conservation law enforcement officer, organizational identity change in conservation law enforcement 27 are along the east coast of the united states (nine states out of 16). five states have had their title for more than two decades, the oldest being new york and maryland, which adopted “police” designations in 1974. delaware was the most recent state to adopt the “police” designation in 2014. agencies with the police designation have indicated that the title, for the most part, has provided benefits that a nonpolice designation failed to produce. benefit one—credibility in the eyes of the public first, and perhaps most important, it was widely reported from those agencies interviewed that having the title of “police” gave them instant credibility in the eyes of the public. for many conservation agencies, gaining respect and understanding on the part of the public had been difficult at best. according to the majority of respondents, the general public “just didn’t get it” or “didn’t care” what the agencies did or what they were empowered to do. often they would hear such things as, “you’re not a cop. i do not have to listen to you,” or “get back in your truck and mind your own business.” this lack of understanding on the part of the public had an impact, as pointed out by the following: it was like the people were looking at us and going “what the f**k?” i mean we were pulling people over for stuff [violations not relating to natural resource law], like we are empowered to do and they looked at us like we were from another planet. they would give our guys s**t and all that. it wasn’t worth it, so we stopped it for the most part. however, once the title “police” was put into place, there seemed to be a shift in public perception. this was particularly true for states engaged in aggressive promotional campaigns (e.g., outdoor clubs and organizations, outdoor shows, television and radio broadcasts, etc.) highlighting what the officers were empowered to do. initially there was a bit of “confusion” on the part of the public, but once the “word spread,” this confusion seemed to dissipate. consider the following: you have to understand, we operated a certain way for so long and now we changed overnight. but we really didn’t—just our title changed and that had to be explained. i can still see some of the eyes on the good ol’ boys faces when i said that i was now a cop and could arrest them for dui. i swear one guy spit his soda all over the place. yeah, it hit them hard but we went out to them and explained it all. that is what you have to do, make them understand. once they did, things seem to be pretty good. 28 michael j. mcskimming, robert vance dunbar, and ahmet guler unfortunately, these agencies could not provide convincing quantitative data to support their claims that the title change brought about a better rapport with the public. however, it was clear that something was indeed happening, and they were more than happy to embrace the title change. many respondents clearly pointed out that their interactions with the public were “smoother,” they had fewer incidents of questioning their “authority,” and they had fewer verbal and physical assaults. agencies reported having an increased number of calls from citizens about both resource violations and crimes code. as one respondent put it, “it is like we are legitimate now; we are the police!” benefit two—credibility with other law enforcement agencies second, other law enforcement agencies and the courts have reacted to these officers more favorably as a result of their donning the police title. frequently, conservation law enforcement officers require the assistance of other agencies such as the local police, sheriffs, and state police. this could range from asking for help in an active incident or an ongoing investigation, requiring laboratory work, or requesting the use of equipment that the agency does not have handy (e.g., atvs, night vision equipment, helicopters, etc.). one would assume that interagency cooperation and respect was a given, and that help would be available for the asking. however, according to some respondents, this was not necessarily the case when it came to conservation officers. it was made clear that not all law enforcement officers are created equal. however, once the name “police” was officially attached, perceptions changed rapidly. consider the following from an agency located in the northeastern part of the united states: it was as if we really did not exist in the law enforcement community. then once we applied the title “police” to our name, we now can get search warrants and other law enforcement agencies call upon us for assistance: from public safety stuff to emergency management. it was like the door was suddenly opened and we were legit. a conservation agency in a geographically different region gave a similar response. according to a respondent from that conservation agency, the name change has “increased the number of calls for assistance from other state and local law enforcement and from homeland security itself.” many additional agencies have also claimed instant “credibility” with other law enforcement agencies. no other changes were made apart from adding “police” to their title. organizational identity change in conservation law enforcement 29 benefit three—credibility with legislatures in addition to experiencing enhanced credibility with the public and other law enforcement agencies, a significant number of those interviewed suggested that the name change has increased visibility and financial support from their legislatures. law enforcement agencies rely heavily upon monies from their respective state governments. as needs increase and support decreases, conservation agencies have received barely enough to “survive on their own.” having to compete with “more legitimate law enforcement agencies,” many have had to find creative ways to finance such things as deteriorating fish hatcheries, officer training programs, vehicle replacement, and equipment upgrades. interestingly, financial concerns seemingly disappeared for many agencies once they became “recognized by the higher-ups” as being “real law enforcement.” as these conservation agencies began to enjoy a stronger relationship with traditional law enforcement agencies, they found it “easier to get sponsored bills passed in the legislature” and funding seemed to increase. many credit this enhanced relationship with their state legislatures to the fact that their agencies were strongly tied with “recognizable” agencies such as homeland security, and in some cases, the united states fish and wildlife service. as one respondent remarked, “it seems you only become legitimate once someone else finds you to be. once that happens, you get what you want and need. we should have figured that out years ago.” states without a police title entities without a police designation (n = 15) are clearly divided between those that have at least considered adopting a “police” designation for their officers and those that are emphatically against it. seven out of the 11 agencies reported that there has never been “official” talk about changing their officers’ titles, but believe that a title change would benefit the officers in the field. according to one agency representative, “we are aware of the issues and know of the recent changes. we simply are not there yet, but i think we will be.” another official made the claim that, “our officers are being taken advantage of because they are not thought of as being real police.” interestingly, while many agencies have not elected to go with an official title change, a few states (arizona, hawaii, and wisconsin) have at least changed markings on their vehicles, patches, and vests, or introduce themselves as “police” when interacting with the public. when asked why those changes were made, each participant indicated that, “the term ‘police’ is understood by everyone, and having that term visible makes a difference when interacting with the public.” 30 michael j. mcskimming, robert vance dunbar, and ahmet guler finally, one state (arizona) considered a title change about five years ago but remains divided on the issue. during an interview an official from arizona made the point clearly: we have an issue with illegal immigrants coming into our state, and if you do not have the word “police” on your vehicle, they do not understand. we had agents in the field doing some wildlife census, and when they got back to the truck, it was full of illegals. they asked for a ride to the nearest city. one officer asked them why they thought they could get a ride and the reply was, “’cos it did not say police on your truck so we figured it was safe.” the officers told them that they needed to get the hell out of there and that they were indeed police officers. if we had that word on the vehicle, they would not have jumped in. he went on to add: changing the title of the conservation officers in the northern part of the state really does not make sense, since the majority of the people up there know who we are and what we do. there is an acceptance. so given this division, we will continue to struggle with the idea of change. the picture is quite different for states that have maintained their original titles. some members of state agencies simply love the traditional title, and their officers are dead set against a title change (n = 4). as one interviewee put it, “we have a tradition here and our officers believe that a change would tarnish that tradition.” another participant was more emphatic about the idea of a title change when he said, “our officers love the name game warden and there is no need to change that for any reason. period and end of story.” for the remaining states that have resisted a change, it was clear that they wanted to avoid the “stigma” of being called police. according to one official, “we are not police and we were told by the higher-ups to never hire former police officers. we are in the game of conservation, not policing.” discussion and conclusion the current study examines the merits of changing the title of conservation officers to a “police” designation. conservation law enforcement officers suffer from a lack of legitimacy in the eyes of the community, other law enforcement agencies, and in some instances, their corresponding legislatures. however, organizational identity change in conservation law enforcement 31 once a single word is added to their title, a different reality presents itself. a significant number of agencies now enjoy increased awareness and acceptance by the public of their enforcement authority, better relationships with traditional law enforcement agencies (local, state, and in many cases, federal), and increased funding from their state legislatures. furthermore, many participating state agencies have indicated that they have had easier reception and passage of their proposed legislation with their state lawmakers or legislatures. this has been important to them as they strive to promote laws that protect, conserve, and enhance their natural resources. for conservation agencies that had already completed their identity change process, it made sense to change their titles as well. they viewed it as a positive contribution to their organizational identity. data also revealed resistance to making the title change in a few states. for some agencies, changing their title flies in the face of a longstanding tradition. their officers are proud to be called “wardens,” and changing that devalues their position. for others, the term “police” is not wanted because the perception is that they are conservation officers and not police officers. their duty is resource protection, not traditional law enforcement activities. similar to the earlier studies (eliason 2014; patten 2012; patten, crow, and shelley 2015), we found that changing the title of “conservation officer” to “conservation police officer” created confusion, tension, and frustration among members of some state conservation law enforcement organizations. this is particularly true regarding conservation law enforcement organizations in states without a title change that are currently in the middle of organizational identity change. conservation law enforcement officers working in these organizations try to make sense of organizational change happening in their organizational environment (apker 2005; balogun and johnson 2005; weick 1979). due to changes in the occupational responsibilities of conservation officers and ongoing changes in conservation law enforcement, conservation law enforcement organizations in states without a title change experience tension between their current organizational identity and new demands coming from their organizational environments. while they want to keep the traditional features of their organizational identity, such as wildlife and fish enforcement, natural resource protection, and warden-oriented culture, they also feel pressure to adjust to the new working environment. these conflicting demands will reshape the new organizational identity as a result of power struggles, organizational culture clashes, and resistance to change in these organizations. conservation officer safety and legitimacy should be a priority for all concerned. times have changed and as recent events have indicated, the respect for law enforcement authority is eroding. changing the title of conservation 32 michael j. mcskimming, robert vance dunbar, and ahmet guler officers to more of a police designation should not be viewed as the “magic solution” that will yield greater legitimacy for these officers. however, it may be a significant step forward in increasing officer safety. coupled with increased public education, media programming, and legislative support, significant strides can be made to enhance conservation officer safety. conservation officers who are sworn to enforce state laws are police. it is a part of their training and duties. the public understands the authority of police officers. therefore, the simplest step with the most immediate impact that conservation agencies can take to protect their officers is to include “police” in their title and in the markings of their uniforms, vehicles, and vessels. administrators are concerned that conservation officers will focus more on policing than natural resource protection. states that have made the title change have shown this concern to be false. a study such as this should be viewed as a starting point for further research into conservation officer safety and legitimacy. essentially, it suggests three avenues for further inquiry. first, while respondents verbalized that their agencies experienced an enhanced sense of credibility in three areas (the public, other law enforcement agencies, and state legislatures), it would be interesting to collect quantitative data to validate those statements. for example, future research might examine the rate of officer assaults before and after a title change. similarly, future research might examine the differences in calls for assistance from other law enforcement agencies before and after the title change. finally, examining changes in funding or policies impacting the work of conservation agencies might reveal how a title change increases the perceived legitimacy of their requests with lawmakers. another study could focus on how conservation law enforcement officers develop coping mechanisms to deal with feelings of confusion, tension, and frustration during the process of organizational identity change. thus, we can better understand how officers make sense of identity change and what types of responses they develop to manage problems they encounter during the change process. this research could be realized in one of the conservation law enforcement organizations that are still in the process of title change. a final direction for research would be to garner information on those who have directly interacted or associated with the participating agencies and officers. this particular study addresses only those who work in the agencies that purposely availed themselves of the study. some bias may exist because only those agencies who believe the title change was instrumental in their increased legitimacy participated. including civilians who have come into contact with conservation officers, other law enforcement officers, and state legislators would greatly enhance the current data. organizational identity change in conservation law enforcement 33 policy implications for pennsylvania there is ample evidence to suggest that the commonwealth of pennsylvania should consider a title change for its conservation officers. this holds true for both the pennsylvania fish and boat commission and the pennsylvania game commission. both independent agencies work closely with other law enforcement agencies, and having the “police” designation would greatly enhance their legitimacy in the eyes of the public and the agencies they associate with in the field. based upon the interviews and data collected for this study, we recommend the following policies to be developed as soon as possible. first, the titles of “waterways conservation officer” and “wildlife conservation officer” should be replaced with “waterways police officer” and “wildlife police officer.” pennsylvania is in the unique position of having two independent agencies: one focused on fish and boat enforcement, and the other covering the protection of mammals and birds. as a result of having these separate entities, it makes sense to have two titles at present. if for some reason the two agencies merge into one large entity that will oversee both fish and game enforcement, we would suggest that “conservation police officer” be used. second, all conservation officer vehicles, boats, hats, officer jackets, hats, and uniforms should contain the word “police” in appropriate and remarkable lettering and color. as suggested by the data, states that have undergone a title change have found it to be in their favor to have the word “police” printed on as many official items as possible. ironically, states retaining their original title have in some instances incorporated the word “police” on their vehicles and uniforms. even these agencies have recognized the importance of the word “police,” and the commonwealth of pennsylvania should follow suit. third, an extensive campaign to educate the public about the full powers of pennsylvania conservation officers should be undertaken. it should begin with the creation of informational pamphlets distributed to radio and print media across the commonwealth. each state agency should be responsible for the information contained in the pamphlets (for the purposes of validity and accuracy), and the literature should be made readily available to the general public. furthermore, conservation officers should be encouraged, if not mandated, to attend as many outdoor clubs and fishing-oriented organizations as possible. some may view this as “preaching to the choir,” but it is our position that more public exposure will reinforce the new “police” designation. ultimately, with greater awareness, the public will “get it.” finally, we suggest that criminal justice curricula across the commonwealth begin to include discussions of the duties and powers of conservation officers in their classes. introduction to criminal justice or law enforcement 34 michael j. mcskimming, robert vance dunbar, and ahmet guler classes might be the most appropriate to this end. it appears that the most popular criminal justice texts fail to mention or discuss conservation officers as “police officers,” so it is safe to assume that faculty who teach these classes are not exposing their students to this reality. the lacuna in the literature and the classroom certainly does not bode well for the legitimacy of conservation officers as police. these policy recommendations for the commonwealth may bring legitimacy to those officers who protect, conserve, and enhance the natural resources of pennsylvania. many of the northern states have been proactive in changing the titles of their officers to reflect the true scope and nature of their work. while it is admirable to hold true to traditions, the time might be right for pennsylvania to join the growing number of states that have understood the need to bring legitimacy to their conservation officers. as director john arway of the pennsylvania fish and boat commission succinctly put it: our law enforcement staff is second to none and has evolved from fish wardens to waterways patrolmen to waterways conservation officers. the evolution of their name is a result of society’s changes. officers didn’t need body armor, semi-automatic weapons or even computers or smartphones when they were fish wardens, but they do today. (gearhart 2016, 37) we hope that director arway and the commonwealth of pennsylvania are willing to evolve even further. appendix a: interview questions for agencies with police designation 1. has the name of your law enforcement officers ever changed since its creation? if yes, go to question # 2. if no, go to [question #1 in appendix b]. 2. what was their official title prior to the change? 3. if the title has changed, what year was it changed? 4. how long had the agency used the prior title? 5. why was the name of your agency changed? 6. what impact, if any, has the name change had on interactions between your officers and the public? [probe—have there been any noticeable changes in the assault rates or use of force since the title change? any supporting documentation? has the agency received any feedback from its officers regarding their perceptions of the changes since the title’s inception? do you have any anecdotal evidence to offer?] organizational identity change in conservation law enforcement 35 appendix b: interview questions for agencies without police designation 1. has your agency ever considered changing the title of its law enforcement officers to represent their status as a policing agency? if yes, go to #2. if no, stop here. 2. what factors have influenced the idea of changing your agency name? (e.g., other agencies changing their names, time for a change, public pressure, etc. . . .) 3. what obstacles, if any, may stand in the way of changing your agency name? notes acknowledgments: a previous version of this paper was presented at the annual meetings of the northeast fish & wildlife conference, annapolis, maryland—april 2016 by michael j. mcskimming. the authors would also like to extend their appreciation to megan williams, who contributed significantly to the design and the data-gathering stages of the project. the authors would also like to extend their appreciation to ed bowman for reading numerous drafts and offering valuable comments and suggestions. 1. for more information, go to http://www.fishandboat.com/aboutus/agency overview/pages/default.aspx, or http://www.pgc.pa.gov/informationresources/aboutus/ pages/whatwedo.aspx references albert, stuart, and david. a. whetten. 1985. “organizational identity.” in research in organizational behavior, eds. larry. l. cummings 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(march/april): 34–37. george, jennifer m., and gareth r. jones. 2001. “towards a process model of individual change in organizations.” human relations 54 (april): 419–444. gioia, dennis a., and kumar chittipeddi. 1991. “sensemaking and sensegiving in strategic change initiation.” strategic management journal 12 (september): 443–448. gioia, dennis a., and james b. thomas. 1996. “identity, image, and issue interpretation: sensemaking during strategic change in academia.” administrative science quarterly 41 (september): 370–403. organizational identity change in conservation law enforcement 37 gioia, dennis a., majken schultz, and kevin g. corley. 2000. “organizational identity, image, and adaptive instability.” academy of management review 25 (january): 63–81. gioia, dennis a., james b. thomas, shawn m. clark, and kumar chittipeddi. 1994. “symbolism and strategic change in academia: the dynamics of sensemaking and influence.” organization science 5 (august): 363–383. grill, kristine m., and leilani carver. 2008. “organizational change as sensemaking, not resistance, in nbc’s the office.” presented at the annual meeting of the national communication association, san diego, ca. gustafson, loren t., and rohanda k. reger. 1995. “using organizational identity to achieve stability and change in high velocity environments.” academy of management journal 38 (august): 464–468. isabella, lynn a. 1990. “evolving interpretations as a change unfolds: how managers construe key organizational events.” academy of management journal 33 (march): 7–41. maitlis, sally. 2005. “the social processes of organizational sensemaking.” academy of management journal 48 (february): 21–49. mcskimming, michael j., and robert v. dunbar. 2015. “conservation officer safety: research, recent advances, and policy changes in pennsylvania.” presented at the annual meeting of the northeast association of fish and wildlife agencies, newport, ri. ———. 2016. “what is in a name?: conservation officer safety and legitimacy.” presented at the annual meeting of the northeast fish & wildlife agencies, annapolis, md. nauright, john, and charles parrish, eds. 2012. sports around the world: history, culture, and practice [4 volumes]. santa barbara, ca: abc-clio. oliver, willard m., and cecil a. meier. 2006. “‘duck cops,’ ‘game wardens,’ and ‘wildlife enforcement’: stress among conservation officers.” applied psychology in criminal justice 2 (may): 1–25. palmer, eddie c., and clifton d. bryant. 1985. “keepers of the king’s deer: game wardens and the enforcement of fish and wildlife law.” in the rural workforce: nonagricultural occupations in america, eds. clifton d. bryant, donald. j. shoemaker, james k. skipper, and william. e. snizek. south hadley, ma: bergin & harvey, 111–37. patten, ryan. 2012. “drunk and angry is no way to enjoy the outdoors: an examination of game wardens and the use of force.” international journal of comparative and applied criminal justice 36 (march): 121–132. patten, ryan, matthew s. crow, and tara o. shelley. 2015. “what’s in a name? the occupational identity of conservation and natural resource oriented law enforcement agencies.” american journal of criminal justice 40 (december): 750–764. pendleton, michael r. 2000. “leisure, crime and cops: exploring a paradox of our civility.” journal of leisure research 32 (1): 111–115. ravasi, davide, and majken schultz. 2006. “responding to organizational identity threats: exploring the role of organizational culture.” academy of management journal 49 (june): 433–458. shelley, tara o’connor, and matthew s. crow. 2009. “the nature and extent of conservation policing: law enforcement generalists or conservation specialists?” american journal of criminal justice 34 (june): 9–27. 38 michael j. mcskimming, robert vance dunbar, and ahmet guler michael j. mcskimming is an assistant professor of criminal justice at lock haven university of pennsylvania. prior to joining the faculty at lock haven, he taught classes at gannon university. in addition to his teaching experience, he has 15 years of experience in the area of conservation law enforcement. his research interests include criminal justice ethics, criminal justice policy, and conservation law enforcement. his publications include articles in human dimensions of wildlife, criminal justice policy review, and free inquiry in creative sociology. robert vance dunbar has a master’s degree in criminal justice and has worked in law enforcement for the commonwealth of pennsylvania since 1991. he currently serves as a patrol supervisor of conservation officers in the north-central region of the state. his publications include articles in the green line, the international game warden, pennsylvania angler & boater, and pennsylvania forests magazines. he also authored the book rattlers & snappers: reptiles, amphibians, and outlaws. ahmet guler is an assistant professor of criminal justice at lamar university. before joining lamar university, he taught classes at lock haven university of pennsylvania. he also has more than 15 years of experience in the field as a police manager. his research interests include police organizations, terrorism, and information technology in criminal justice organizations. he has published several articles and book chapters on these topics. sherblom, john, lisa keränen, and lesley withers. 2002. “tradition, tension, and transformation: a structuration analysis of a game warden service in transition.” journal of applied communication research 30 (january): 143–162. taylor, steven s. 1999. “making sense of revolutionary change: differences in members’ stories.” journal of organizational change management 12 (june): 524–539. weick, karl e. 1979. the social psychology of organizing. reading, ma: addison-wesley. more trouble ahead for public school finance more trouble ahead for public school finance the implications of generational change in pennsylvania maureen w. mcclure university of pittsburgh vera krekanova university of pittsburgh pennsylvania’s generational transitions will be rockier and more expensive for education finance than is publicly acknowledged. debates over both the necessity for and the affordability of tax increases already frame state education budget debates. education policy and planning data, especially at regional and local levels, tend to be isolated from other sector wide and cross-sectoral data. this study explores the examples of tax capacity and workforce quality data and concludes that two issues state, regional, and local education policymakers can’t ignore are increased dependency ratios and a smaller workforce with fewer economic opportunities. aging seniors increase dependency ratios, are less mobile, and enjoy lighter tax burdens, putting greater public responsibilities on the labor force. younger, educated workers have heavier tax burdens and are more likely to leave for younger states with less heavy tax burdens. for the last 30 years, education finance policies in pennsylvania were framed largely in terms of battles over expenditures. this, for the most part, included resources related either to access (inequalities, needs, adequacy, etc.) or to choice (charters, accountability, etc.). in contrast, in more centralized education systems internationally, discussions about education’s contributions to provincial and national development and consequent revenue generation were popular. in the much more decentralized united states, commonwealth, volume 18, issue 1 (june 2016). © 2016 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/cjppp.v18i1.84. all rights reserved. 50 maureen w. mcclure and vera krekanova development policy left education largely relegated to the margins. in the commonwealth, some local school districts were highly engaged in regional workforce development issues, but over the last few decades, state interest in them has been limited. education policies have focused instead on the contributions of classroom instruction and the structures of its delivery systems. why then is regional workforce development so important now? without sustainable growth in the state’s tax capacities, it will be difficult for pennsylvania to manage its growing problems of aging taxpayers, relatively poor youth, and pension obligations. one well-known concern is the threat to economic growth that may be presented by unprecedented shifts in the shapes of state populations. florida’s population is growing. pennsylvania’s is flatlined. given the irreversibility of many of these demographic shifts, without offsetting economic growth, these shifts are likely to threaten education’s revenue streams. the state’s shifts in the internal distributions of its age cohorts are linked to the stability of the education sector’s abilities to meet its future obligations. the impacts of shifts in the state’s population shapes on its tax capacities have been more carefully considered in other sectors, such as rural and urban development. the education sector not only needs to integrate other sectors’ existing analyses and projections, it also must take greater responsibility for more transparent reporting of its contributions to development beyond the schoolhouse door. the reasons are clear. growth is essential to offset increasing demands for services. the education sector competes at the state level with other development sectors. is the growth of populations with limited incomes making the state a more expensive and less competitive place to live? if so, how is education helping to mitigate these problems and promote growth? and how can these issues be more widely incorporated into local or state strategic planning for education and workforce development? these shifts need more nuanced analyses when considering education finance policy. for example, what are the potential threats to workforce quantity and quality? in terms of quantity, baby-boom retirees have relatively few workers in the taxpaying age cohorts just behind them. in terms of quality, many of today’s workers lack job stability, earn low wages, have few benefits, and face limited paths to upward mobility. the connections between education, development, and growth are not easily measured. these relationships are instead both historically messy and wickedly contested. they cannot, however, be ignored. the state needs to better assist its department of education (pde) in its efforts to provide better access to sector-wide, as well as cross-sector data and analyses. state, regional, higher education institutions (heis), and local education agency (lea) planning can benefit from this improved access. more trouble ahead for public school finance 51 prologue pennsylvania’s generational transitions will be rockier and more expensive for education finance than is publicly acknowledged. debates over both the necessity for and the affordability of tax increases already frame state education budget debates. state policy’s costing, data collection and analysis capabilities, however, have not yet been either well integrated or broadly disseminated for use in strategic planning across the education sector. this includes the pde, heis, and leas. in pennsylvania, leas include: career and technical centers, charter schools, intermediate units, school districts, special program jointures, and state juvenile correctional institutions pde’s data collection and access capacities have greatly improved over the years. the department has come a long way from compliance data tapes sitting in isolated offices to online, multiyear data that are easily downloaded from their website. education’s contribution to revenue generation and development issues (tax capacities, workforce quantity and quality, economic growth, quality of life, etc.) are, however, only marginally referenced. currently, pde has only limited requirements for data related to costing, revenue generation, tax burden, or contributions to community stability, growth, and workforce development in their mandated strategic planning for school districts. consequently, pde access to multisector data and analyses in these areas have not yet been made easily available, visible, or deeply integrated within the education sector and across other sectors. demographic concerns are central. they can be framed as the problems of growing dependencies. as the state’s dependency ratios rise, so do the risks for the state’s tax capacities, perhaps especially for the education sector. total dependency ratios very roughly compare the economically active and inactive. dependency ratio = 65+ years old + 14 years or younger ÷ total working age population (15–64). young-age and old-age ratios are also popular. the scale and rate of population aging have been triggering anxieties among policy makers (and the public) about the financial capacity of societies with populations over 65 surpassing the populations under 15 (beard et al. 2011). dependency ratios can only be rough measures, as population behaviors are, of course, much more complicated. for example, the intensity of the depen52 maureen w. mcclure and vera krekanova dency is not measured (many 65+ work, many of working age can’t, etc.), but these issues can be addressed elsewhere by workforce quality data. data are available to help refine dependency ratios and their consequences for shifting tax capacities and workforce development. given rising costs and riskier returns, the education sector increasingly needs to more visibly justify public investments in it. one way is to demonstrate the sector’s connections to pennsylvania’s growth risks, tax, and workforce capacities. to what extent are the state’s fewer young families both poorer and less prepared for higher education, and thus educationally more expensive than their parents’ generation? pennsylvania’s major sectors such as education, health, and infrastructure need to make their contributions to state and local development much more visible for two reasons. first, as a direct contributions, education prepares the next generation for the inheritance of civil society. it is essential. second, as far as indirect contributions, the generational security required for economic growth can often be overlooked. public education not only grapples with problems of student achievement, it also supports families’ and communities’ efforts to raise children who can govern civil societies and make their way in changing economies. these cooperative, generational efforts reach beyond the important needs for standards and accountability. a larger generational question is what ethical roles and responsibilities pennsylvania has in helping students, families, and communities consider what it means to be a u.s. citizen in an increasingly complex international political economy. a smaller generational question is what are the ethical roles and responsibilities of schools in avoiding misaligned regional and state workforce quality. workforce quality, as it is used here, refers to • levels of employment (full-time, part-time, etc.) • levels of workforce capital (human, social, and cultural) • levels of income as workforce quality shifts and enrollments decline for a while statewide, it cannot be business as usual for education planning and funding policies. the state’s education funding policies and practices need to begin to reflect a more nuanced understanding of the state’s taxpayers. while state public policy debates have acknowledged the growing impacts of generational transitions on tax bases, greater support is needed not only for local analysis, more trouble ahead for public school finance 53 planning, and management, but also for greater public visibility for these critical issues. as the commonwealth’s shifting population reshapes its political economy, it creates problems that are both too difficult to be easily solved and too important to be ignored. education: losing its fan base? it is already well known that the baby-boom cohort (born about 1946–1964) is leaving the workforce for retirement, placing new fiscal burdens on the state in two ways. first, they visibly place demands on state expenditures. this burden comes primarily in terms of health care and public pension payouts. there are not only more of them; they are living longer. without sufficient economic growth, the additional payouts needed to cover these retiree costs may threaten education budgets. second, retirees in pennsylvania don’t pay income taxes on their pensions. this places downward pressure on tax capacities at the very time demands on it are increasing. it also puts pressure on economic growth to offset this downward pressure. third, the baby-boom generation is creating scale problems because as they leave income tax generating jobs for retirement, they are being replaced by cohorts of fewer people. in addition, the generation x cohort (born about 1965–1980) may not generate as much in income taxes, not only because there are fewer of them, but also because many of the jobs held by those retiring, including higher paying ones, are being eliminated (newhook 2015; powell 2013). younger cohorts, generation x, millennials (also known as generation y or the echo generation, born about 1981–1995), and generation z (born about 1996–2015), have grown, or are growing into, labor markets more challenging for many than the ones their parents faced when they were young (carnevale, hanson, and gulish 2013; taylor 2014). the growing state impacts of generational transitions on tax bases are better known in harrisburg than in leas and heis. this means creating more public fora for education and development debates on the consequences of shifting population shapes. for example, it seems unlikely that most school districts have incorporated the independent fiscal office (ifo) reports into their state-mandated strategic plans. nor have many conducted a nuanced analysis of the tax capacity consequences of changing demographics within their own districts. the commonwealth’s shifting population shapes and rising dependency rates are creating problems for the education sector that are too difficult to respond to in a sector-isolated approach (mcclure, sabina, and krekanova 2016). 54 maureen w. mcclure and vera krekanova historically unique what is raising the urgency levels for local, regional, and state education policy makers now? two things: uniqueness and complexity. first, the scale of population shifts in many developed countries is historically unique. the baby boom began in the aftermath of world war ii and ended roughly with the widespread availability of reliable birth control measures in the early 1960s. this generational cohort was not only much larger than those before; it was also living longer. a major event such as the baby boom is a “black swan,” meaning it has high historical impact and is without precedent (taleb 2010). this means approaches to strategic planning designed in the late 20th century no longer hold as well as they did before. for example, a needs-based focus on access to and quality of resource expenditures may overlook a capacity-based analysis of revenue generation projections. current population shapes in the united states and other nations are already radically different from more traditional images of population pyramids still present in countries such as mexico. in comparison, the u.s. population pyramid, has for some time looked a little more like a lumpy rectangle (see figure 1). the lumps were created by the aging boom and its echo generation. in a larger sense, these problems are only temporary, as the population is mexico 2015 population 75+ 2.3% 2.8% 65 74 3.9% 4.4% 55 64 6.7% 7.6% 45 54 10.3% 11.3% 35 44 13.5% 14.0% 25 34 16.1% 15.8% 15 24 18.5% 17.4% < 14 28.8% 26.5% males females usa 2015 population 75+ 5.2% 7.4% 65 74 8.2% 9.0% 55 64 12.5% 13.0% 45 54 13.4% 13.4% 35 44 12.7% 12.4% 25 34 14.1% 13.4% 15 24 14.2% 13.1% < 14 19.6% 18.3% males females usa 2015 population figure 1. population pyramids. (data source: u.s. census bureau, 2015.) more trouble ahead for public school finance 55 already shifting again. temporary, however, as it is used here, is measured in decades. these shifts have significant consequences for both educational revenues and expenditures and will last for some time. this is not news. neither is its absence from education sector planning. pennsylvania today is wealthier in data than in strategy. the state has already aged. aging means rising interest in sectors other than education. it also means there are large numbers of taxpayers and voters who are currently leaving the labor force and perhaps leaving behind a degree of interest in voting for and ability to pay for increased taxes for education. more limited pathways for the young as boomers retire, many jobs are either disappearing or will not be filled because of a “skills gap” some young people face as they are unprepared for high skill, high wage jobs (schleicher 2013; symonds, schwartz, and ferguson 2011). in the past, young workers with limited educations could informally develop skills through experience on the shop floor. this allowed them to work their way up from a working-class existence to a more stable middle-class life. today, however, there are fewer shop floors to create the informal education paths needed for upward mobility. there are instead many more dead-end, low-skill, low-wage jobs with limited access to paths leading to middle-skill, middle-wage jobs (center for workforce information and analysis 2015). can pennsylvania eschew perverse incentives? today’s younger citizens are poorer, needier, and may be more likely to be thought of as “other,” not us. for example, more than 40% (approximately 362,000) of pennsylvania’s young children live in low-income families.1 despite sincere efforts to legislate better access to better education, the consequences of large inequalities remain to be overcome. how will elected officials balance investments in the young, who are less likely to vote, against seniors, who are more likely to show up at the polls? will teachers’ unions be able to offset senior voters? the voting rates among 25 to 44 year olds are below 50%, but almost 70% among those over age 65 (file 2014). pennsylvania continues to focus its investments on k–12 classroom instruction under an assumption that it will translate into a future functioning labor market. this may or may not be true. largely absent is attention to tax base stability. where are the critical public and private investments needed both for labor market access and for the continuous, active workforce “up-skilling” to meet the demands of a 21st-century 56 maureen w. mcclure and vera krekanova political economy (and state budgets) (carnevale, hanson, and gulish 2013; mérette 2007)? unfortunately, by the time problems created by weak education-sector investments in local and state growth and development rise to critical visibility, it may be too late to mitigate the damage created. too often the more complex the problem, the more likely policymakers are to mandate policies with visible, accountable short-term returns, even when longer-term investments in development and economic sustainability may be more valuable (levin et al. 2009). as a state with rapid aging and limited growth, the education sector in pennsylvania has to help generate growth and development that can be highly competitive not only in attracting and starting businesses but also in competing to attract and keep highly mobile young families with middleto high-skilled labor. as we begin to look at pennsylvania’s population dynamics, we can only scratch the surface. the provision of public education to ensure opportunity for the next generation is part of our social contract. the private sector can do its part and make critical contributions, but it cannot take responsibility for the security of generational transitions. the next decades will test our social contract. the education sector can no longer simply contend over expenditures on the basis of need. it also has to show the current generation’s resources are being invested well in the next. we need to batten down the hatches so the state can better weather this passing storm. generational threat to revenue stability how big is the problem? in pennsylvania, never before did the number of older people surpass the share of population below the age of 15. today, however, the cohorts of 65 and over, and 0–14 are almost equal (see figure 2). in five years, the share of older people will outweigh the share of children by 2.4 share of population by age cohorts (pa 2001-2040) 23.5%23.1% 23.1% 21.5% 19.5% 19.3% 19.1% 18.9% 19.2%18.6% 18.4% 18.3% 18.1% 18.0% 17.9% 17.7% 17.6% 17.5% 17.5% 17.6% 16.4% 16.7% 16.8% 16.7% 16.8% 16.7% 16.6%16.0% 16.2% 15.5% 15.4% 15.3% 15.2% 15.5%15.2% 15.1% 15.2% 15.3% 15.4% 15.4% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 population 65+ population 0-14 figure 2. aging trend. (data source: u.s. census bureau, 2015; pennsylvania state data center/ center for rural pennsylvania, 2015.) more trouble ahead for public school finance 57 percentage points. in 10 years the difference grows to 4.8 percentage points, and in 20 years the gap grows to 6.8. aging and its impact on education finance is not only an issue of a rapid increase in the number of older people; there are also amplifying trends with complex economic, political, and social implications for families and communities. as more and more older people continue to live longer, as in the rest of the united states, pennsylvanians’ lifespans are becoming extended by an entire extra generation. consequently, family composition, housing arrangements, and lifestyles now need to change to accommodate a four-generation society with an unprecedented number of middle-aged adults with living parents (findsen and formosa 2011; taylor 2014). pennsylvania as canary: already older pennsylvania already ranks 4th in the united states for the percentage of those 65 and over (u.s. census bureau 2014). indeed, all age cohorts over 45 are significantly larger in pennsylvania than in the rest of the nation (see figure 3). the 80–84 cohort is 23% larger than the national average, and the 85+ cohort is 34% larger. to compound the problem, younger cohorts, for the time being, are smaller in pennsylvania than in the rest of the united states. the state’s highest gap is among those 0–5. the 0–5 cohort is 10%, and the 5–10 cohort is 9%, smaller than the national benchmark. the entire older half of pennsylvania’s population (> 45 years old) is larger (by 9%), and the entire younger half (< 45 years old) is smaller (by 7%), than the same groups on the national level. this substantial 16% gap leaves the state with fewer people to carry heavier demographic burdens than those in other states. pa population compared to u.s. population by share of age cohorts (2015) positive numbers denote higher than national average concentration of population within a particular age cohort; negative numbers denote lower than national average concentration of population within a particular age cohort. 34% 23% 13% 9% 10%9% 9% 6% 1% 0% -5% -7% -6% -3% -3% -8% -8% -9% -10% 85 + 84 79 74 69 64 59 54 49 44 39 34 29 24 19 10 -1 4 9 <5580 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 figure 3. pennsylvania population deficit. (data source: u.s. census bureau, 2015.) 58 maureen w. mcclure and vera krekanova this demographic deficit problem is even more urgent when we consider troubling high school and college dropout rates, persistent child poverty rates, and youth unemployment. all of these shrink the size of the workforce available to support growing dependency ratios. thus policymakers need to start addressing outmigration issues now by planning how to attract and keep younger cohorts. those who are most able, however, are also often the most mobile. they can take their families and leave for less expensive states with more job opportunities, younger populations, and lighter tax burdens. better assessments of this potential problem and other disruptive possibilities and their consequences for the education sector are needed. developments in big data analytics may now allow for superior multisectoral analyses to better inform decision support and planning across a wide range of related issues. population shifts and the hiccup problem pennsylvania’s future is now (see figure 4). in 2001, the population over 45 was already estimated to be 39%. in 2015, the estimate had grown to 45%. in contrast, the under-25 cohort accounted for only 33% in 2001, and by 2015, even less, 31%. what about the core of working-age adults in the middle? over the last 15 years, the core of pennsylvania’s population shifted from a 35–54 cohort to a 45–64 cohort. during this time the youngest cohort shrank noticeably. these shifts are likely to have consequences for the state’s tax base. today’s population pyramids look significantly different than 15 years ago and they continue to morph. in 2040, about the time many children born pennsylvania 2001 population 75+ 2.81% 5.01% 65 74 3.43% 4.27% 55 64 4.48% 4.90% 45 54 7.10% 7.33% 35 44 7.70% 7.92% 25 34 6.13% 6.18% 15 24 6.70% 6.55% < 14 9.99% 9.51% females males pennsylvania 2015 population 75+ 2.90% 4.57% 65 74 4.30% 4.92% 55 64 6.85% 7.24% 45 54 6.89% 7.06% 35 44 5.81% 5.83% 25 34 6.46% 6.35% 15 24 6.75% 6.51% < 14 8.97% 8.58% females males pennsylvania 2040 population 75+ 5.60% 7.78% 65 74 4.57% 5.16% 55 64 5.06% 5.35% 45 54 6.07% 5.90% 35 44 6.45% 6.21% 25 34 6.18% 5.89% 15 24 6.72% 6.50% < 14 8.47% 8.09% females males figure 4. pennsylvania population pyramids. (data source: u.s. census bureau, 2015; pennsylvania state data center/center for rural pennsylvania, 2015.) more trouble ahead for public school finance 59 today will have graduated from college and will be getting married, starting families, and buying homes, significant changes to the pennsylvania population composition will have occurred. in terms of relative size, there will be a much narrower difference between the age cohorts (see figure 4). the 65+ population will have grown 71% from 1.9 million to 3.3 million. within this group, those 85+ will have grown 152%, from 242,000 in 2001 to about 610,000. meanwhile, the population of children aged 0–14 is expected to decline about 2% from 2.4 million to 2.34 million. additionally, over 40% of these children are likely to be raised in low-income families, communities, and school districts. many of these children are not likely to be well prepared for higher education success. growing risks for education policy: generational dependency issues also, perhaps because these problems have little historical context, they lack a policy infrastructure to manage them. there are few lobbyists either for the development contributions of the education sector or for a generational interest in successful transitions. in pennsylvania, the current overall dependency ratio is 34.2%. this is slightly lower than the 35% in 2001.2 even small, one tenth of a point shifts, however, can be significant. this decrease, however, is only temporary. by 2020, this dependency ratio is estimated to be 35.9% and by 2040, 39.7% (tucker 2012). aging will drive all of the increases in dependency ratios (see figure 5). these rapidly growing old-age dependency ratios are signaling major issues for public policies that include education (rudawska 2010). 45% dependency ratio (per 100 working age persons); pa 2001-2040 23.5% 40% 15.5% 16.7% 35% 30% 25% 20% 19.5%15% 16.7%16.8% 10% 5% 0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 young-age ratio old-age ratio figure 5. dependency ratio. (data source: u.s. census bureau, 2015; pennsylvanis state data center/center for rural pennsylvania, 2015.) 60 maureen w. mcclure and vera krekanova pensions: who will be able to pay in the future? very visible in the media is the state’s chronic issue of public pensions. how can pennsylvania meet its constitutional obligations without compromising the quality of life of the rest of its citizens (beard et al. 2011)? it may already be too late to avoid problems. voters from the private sector with fewer retirement benefits are likely to be both reluctant and unable to pay increasingly higher taxes to fund public pensioners, even though they are currently obligated to do so by the state constitution as it has been interpreted by the courts. some state and lea policymakers claim limited future problems because the marginal increases in local pension contributions start to decline in a couple of years. in 2001, however, there was one pensioner for every four workers in pennsylvania. soon there will be only three. without major in-migration, within a generation only 2.5 pennsylvanian workers will be available to support one pensioner. those 2.5 workers will also be likely to be caring for their families, worrying about housing costs and health care, and/or paying off college loans (tucker 2012). with over 40% of these 2.5 workers now growing up under low-income conditions, what will be their opportunities? what kind of education investment do they need today, and what kind of jobs will they need tomorrow so they can manage these future complex fiscal responsibilities? generational security and a fraying social contract generational security is a slowly growing issue. for many decades, there was the assumption of a social contract that justified transfers of public funds to the young and elderly on the basis of solidarity among the generations (samorodov 1999; taylor 2014). a generational solidarity principle anticipated that those participating in the labor market would contribute a share of their gross salary toward the income of retirees in exchange for a promise that the next generation would do the same. today’s changing demographics raise the potential for political conflict among current generations who find themselves in very different predicaments in the solidarity arrangement. the large cohort of older workers who dutifully contributed to the pensions of the previous generation is becoming dependent on the contributions of a much smaller younger, poorer, and less well-educated generation. for example, since 2000, the earnings of pennsylvania’s youngest cohorts grew by about 30%. in contrast, the earnings of the state’s oldest cohorts grew by more than 50% over the same period, also starting from a larger base. some but not all of the following is to be expected because of experience. the current average earnings of those 25–34 are 34% smaller than the earnings of those more trouble ahead for public school finance 61 35–44, and 41% smaller than the earnings of those 45–54. this of course may shift with age, but in the meantime, it may crimp spending on large ticket items such as housing. disparate economic power within and across groups in addition to the political economy tensions across generational cohorts, there is also the issue of disparate economic power both within and across groups. for example, dependency ratios are based solely on age. age cohorts are assumed to be monolithic consumers of public services. first, they assume both similar levels of needs within and across dependent groups (children and the elderly). second, they assume similar earning abilities within the working age population. these cohort numbers generally don’t incorporate other mitigating factors such as gender, disabilities, and poverty. to understand the more complex tax capacity risks created by the shifting demographics of pennsylvania, it is important to consider additional variables such as gender in the policy mix. for example, the number of females in pennsylvania surpasses the number of males in every age category above 35. among the population of 85+, there are more than twice as many women as men. women also account for 60% of the 80–84 cohort, and 56% of the 75–79 cohort. this trend and its effects on revenue generation is likely to become more pronounced the older the population grows. women not only live longer, they tend to have less financial security due to a lifetime of unequal and inadequate access to education and economic participation (beard et al. 2011). this compounding effect may reduce tax capacities while increasing demands and costs for services. for example, many want to stay in their homes longer but lack resources for property tax increases to support schools. so they vote to keep school taxes down. education can’t ignore workforce quality dependency ratio growth, therefore, has significant consequences for education, both for the competition for expenditures and the stability of tax capacities. it is important to consider not only the size of dependencies but also the quality of workforces. dependency ratios alone can’t account for workforce quality. how many people may have full-time jobs with little pay? how many are discouraged, disabled, or stay at home by choice? while a range of descriptive data is widely available (independent fiscal office 2016; pennsylvania state data center/center for rural pennsylvania 2015), their use in state, regional, hei, and lea education policy and planning remains limited. 62 maureen w. mcclure and vera krekanova workforce quality: employed, unemployed, discouraged, and not in the labor force (voluntary and involuntary) workforce quality indicators are often overlooked as a measure of return to public investments in education, despite their availability. for example, as of december 2015, there were approximately 6,140,000 employed and 306,000 (4.8%) unemployed adults in pennsylvania (center for workforce information and analysis 2015). the current labor force participation rate in pennsylvania is only 62.5%, about the same as in the united states generally (bureau of labor statistics 2016; center for workforce information and analysis 2015). the four largest sectors employed about one half of available jobs: health care and social assistance sector (17%), government (12%), retail trade (11%), and manufacturing (10%). it is important that the pipeline of younger workers under 25 is only about one-half of the size of those 55+ (center for workforce information and analysis 2015). almost 47% of pennsylvania’s employed workforce is now 45 or older, a significant increase from 37% in 2001 (see figure 6). the 25–44 cohort of employed workers accounted for only 40%, and only 13% were under 24. in only the last 15 years the share of the state’s active workforce who are 65+ almost doubled, while the size of the three youngest cohorts each decreased by 2%. traditional assumptions of generational replacement simply no longer hold. these dynamic changes have consequences for revenue generation. in august 2015 pennsylvania ranked 31st in national unemployment at 5.4% (center for workforce information and analysis 2015). unemployment was higher for males (5.7%) than females (4.6%). the youngest workers experienced the highest unemployment rates—11.8% for those 16–19 and 10.5% for distribution of jobs by age cohorts (pa, 2001-2015) 65+ 3.2% 5.6% 55-64 10.7% 18.2% 45-54 22.8% 23.2% 35-44 26.7% 20.1% 25-34 22.1% 20.5% 22-24 5.6% 6.0% 19-21 5.2% 4.4% < 18 3.7% 2.1% 2001 jobs 2015 jobs figure 6. age and jobs. (data source: u.s. bureau of labor statistics, quarterly census of employment and wages; emsi, 2015.) more trouble ahead for public school finance 63 those 20–24. in contrast, the unemployment rate of workers 55 and over was only 3.7%. the average length of unemployment among all dislocated workers was 31 weeks. one-third of the unemployed, approximately 107,000, were considered long-term unemployed (they had been out of work for more than 26 weeks) (center for workforce information and analysis 2015). discouraged workers. employment and unemployment are not the only two variables, as there are many people who do not participate in the current labor force. discouraged workers, for example, are those who both want and are available for work but haven’t found it. they have looked for work during the past year, but not in the last four weeks. there are approximately 28,000 discouraged workers in pennsylvania, or about twice the 2007 prerecession level. almost 60% of the discouraged workers are males, and 40% are between the ages of 25–54 (center for workforce information and analysis 2015). not in the labor force: people with disabilities. those who are voluntarily not in the labor force include those under 65 who are retired, stay-athome parents, caregivers, etc. those who are involuntarily not in the labor force include the disabled, as well as those who are institutionalized.3 approximately 820,000 working age pennsylvanians (11.2%) are classified as having one or more disabilities. the employment rate of people with disabilities in pennsylvania is only 33.6% and only about 20% of them are working full-time. an additional 11% of people with disabilities are actively looking for work (erickson, lee, and von schrader 2014). the problem, therefore, is more complicated than it may appear to be at first. the working age population that is unemployed or unable to sustain participation in the labor market quietly adds to the dependency levels. in other words, it increases the pressure on the state’s expenditure and weakens its revenue base. the resulting employment to total population ratio in pennsylvania is currently 59.2%. for every 10 people who are working there are six who are not (center for workforce information and analysis 2015). further, not all of those who are working have good jobs. workforce quality: compensation the average annual wage in pennsylvania in 2015 was $63,000 (united states was $72,641), but the median is only $43,400 (united states was $53,657).4 more than one-half of pennsylvanians (52%) are employed in industries with average wages below even the $63,000 benchmark. without access to manufacturing and other middle-skill, middle-wage jobs, today’s younger workers (< 25) are significantly more concentrated in the low-wage indus64 maureen w. mcclure and vera krekanova try sectors with limited upward mobility, such as accommodation and food services, retail, or arts, entertainment, and recreation. these younger workers are under-represented in the high-wage industry sectors such as utilities, mining, even information. older workers (55+), on the other hand, are more concentrated in the high-wage industry sectors than in the low-wage sectors (see figure 7). workforce quality: part-time work in addition to those who aren’t working and those in low paying jobs, approximately 279,000 pennsylvanians are working part-time for economic reasons. economic reasons mean they have stated they would prefer full-time work and are working part-time only because full-time jobs are not available. this alone represents between 4.5% and 5% of the employed. prior to the recession, people working part-time for economic reasons comprised between 2.5% and 3.0% of the state’s employed. women working part-time for economic reasons have historically been about one-half percentage point higher than men (center for workforce information and analysis 2015). in times of significant shifts at both ends of the population, the labor market opportunities available to the demographic core (active workforce) are critical to both the state’s fiscal performance and successful generational transitions. in sum, the state’s tax capacities may be more fragile than the education sector currently assumes. dependency ratios both identify and mask generational needs and abilities to pay. moving forward, more attention is required to assess the risks to education’s revenue generation sources. jobs by age of workers and wage sector (pa, 2015) low-wage industries 566,488 1,755,110 615,710 high-wage industries 20 5, 28 1 1,845,293 704,992 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 < 25 25-54 55+ 19% 60% 21% 26% 7% 67% figure 7. age and wage. (data source: u.s. bureau of labor statistics, quarterly census of employment and wages; emsi, 2015.) more trouble ahead for public school finance 65 workforce transition problems aging in pennsylvania presents a significant risk to the supply side of labor market dynamics. first, the sheer numbers of older workers significantly surpasses the numbers of younger workers. second, the current pipeline of younger workers cannot easily substitute for the human and social capital skills of aging workers (dychtwald, erickson, and morison 2004). in addition to poorly matched work experiences and skills, there are significant differences in preferences for sectors and occupations between the two age groups. for example, in pennsylvania the highest concentration of older workers (age 55+) is in teaching and training, management, and office and administrative occupations. the highest concentration of adult workers 25–54 is in computer, legal, and construction occupations. and the highest concentration of the youngest workers (< 25) is in food preparation and serving, sales, and personal care occupations. younger workers may be working their way through school, or may not yet have landed a job for which they are qualified. nevertheless, these jobs are often less likely to build toward careers and upward mobility. when these low-wage jobs become low-wage occupations, they generate weak career trajectories. as a consequence, this can result in weak competition for jobs across cohorts because of differences in knowledge, skills, and experiences. consequently, there is a limited substitutability between them (eichhorst et al. 2013; samorodov 1999). education policy for pennsylvania’s population scale and shift problems the problems created by the sheer scale of population shape-shifting lack precedent. paying attention to dependency ratios and workforce quality is important in education policy because they influence revenue generation issues such as total tax burden and tax effort willingness. too often in the past, school taxes have been treated as independent factors rather than as interdependent with other sectors of local and state taxation and development. taxpayers experience their sum of taxes more than their individual parts. dependency ratios can affect a district’s or a state’s willingness to tax across the public sector, making education a development competitor with health, transportation, and other areas. challenges to personal incomes. baby boomers aging out of the labor force are destabilizing the state’s already delicate balance between active and inactive workers. increasing numbers of retirees are turning to social secu66 maureen w. mcclure and vera krekanova rity with limited savings to manage their own retirements and health care. in addition to retirees with limited savings, the state is called upon to support public education pension payouts. these are not insignificant. where can pennsylvania turn for additional resources? not to retirees on limited incomes with limited savings. not to the high-wage jobs left unfilled by retirees. not to the young in low-wage jobs. not to unemployed, discouraged or part-time workers. not to those voluntarily or involuntarily (disabled) not in the labor force. will the state’s economic growth pull us out? let us hope. challenges to property taxes. personal incomes are not the only revenue policy area that becomes complicated with increasing dependency ratios. market values may be affected as well. what will be the demand for suburban homes when many baby-boomer retirees are ready to sell and fewer young people are available and/or able to buy? a younger generation of millennials is postponing marriage, childbearing, car and home buying for up to 10 years later than their parents’ generation (taylor 2014). many face large education debt loads and consequently have less available for mortgage payments. high debt loads are to be expected in a state like pennsylvania with some of the highest public higher education in-state tuition costs in the united states.5 further complicating these generational transitions are the problems of the market’s financial interest rates, which, since the great recession, have been held deliberately low as an economic stimulus. this stimulus, however, came in the form of a massive interest rate subsidy. for the older generation it meant lower returns on their savings accounts, cds, etc. for the younger generation it meant lower interest rates for big-ticket items such as homes and cars. even with the lower interest rate subsidies, recovery was slow. why? the young had fewer discretionary resources, making it difficult for them to take advantage of lower interest rates (e.g., school loan debt had higher interest rates than other items). young people are also paying larger shares of their incomes for housing (taylor 2014). all of these issues may eventually affect pennsylvania’s market valuations of taxable properties in some school districts. is relief on the way? not likely. two issues that state, regional, and local education policymakers can’t ignore are increased dependency ratios and a smaller workforce with fewer economic opportunities for at least the next decade or so. together they help make the state less competitive in national and global markets. first, the state can’t deport aging seniors who increase dependency ratios, putting greater public responsibilities on the labor force. raising taxes to meet public demand for services risks making the state less competitive in the marketplace. while more trouble ahead for public school finance 67 seniors enjoy lighter tax burdens and are likely to be less mobile, younger workers have heavier tax burdens and are more mobile. younger, more educated people are more likely to leave for younger states with less heavy tax burdens. pennsylvania is an aging state with many small school districts that already have relatively few taxpayers. now many of them are aging out of personal income taxes, buying less, and voting to keep taxes down so they can stay in their homes. will this contribute to an increasingly lower quality workforce and make the state even less competitive? in the face of these challenges, pennsylvania needs to better invest in children from low-income families today so they have opportunities to successfully access a civil society and prosperous economy tomorrow (carnevale, hanson, and gulish 2013). today, education policy makers and planners need to broaden their views beyond instructional accountability in the classroom and better manage the empirical realities and trajectories that add risk to revenues. the state’s demographics and workforce quality data are well known, but these data have not yet been visibly incorporated in the pde’s funding policies or in its directives for regional and local strategic planning. this continues despite growing uncertainty and risk. the longer education policy makers avoid addressing the uncertainty inevitably being created by these shifts, the more difficult responses may be in the future. why now? the die is already cast. the players for 2040 are already on the stage. children born today will only be 25 in 2040. they may still be in the workforce in 2080. the commonwealth needs to carefully review its social contract for generational succession. schools may be like businesses in some ways, but markets may not be the only, nor the best framework for managing long-term generational security issues. so what is the road forward? education policy and planning data, especially at regional and local levels, tend to be isolated from other sector wide and cross-sectoral data. two examples are tax capacity and workforce quality data, even though they are well known and available. the road forward is to support pde’s efforts to include data that focus on education’s contribution to development in state funding policies, and support for regional and local workforce planning and policy. deeper integration of the state’s data silos and more visible promotion of accessible finance research reports could help the education sector think beyond classroom tests to its contributions to pennsylvania’s economic and civic development. the sector’s current focus on “the greater need” marginalizes its greater contribution. this includes the mapping of the networks of interdependence 68 maureen w. mcclure and vera krekanova that are created by districts’ changing demographics, revenue generation sources, and workforce quantity and quality. how do these contexts fit in institutional budgeting, strategic planning, and collective bargaining contracts? of course sector-wide and cross-sectoral issues are messy and are wickedly difficult to model. ignoring the mess for the tidiness of test scores, however, may land pennsylvania’s education policy makers and planners in the classic dilemma found in the keys and the streetlight story. someone finds a person looking for keys under a streetlight. pitching in, neither has any luck. “where did you lose your keys?” the one inquired. “in the park,” the other responded. “then why look here?” “because the light is better here.” understanding education’s development relationships with tax capacities and workforce quality means working in much dimmer light than more traditional measures of classroom accountability using test scores. it’s worth it. the good news is, more than many other states, pennsylvania has many resources on which to draw. notes 1. national center for children in poverty, http://www.nccp.org/profiles/pa_pro file_8.html. 2. pennsylvania state data center/center for rural pennsylvania, http://www.rural .palegislature.us/demographics_population_projections.html. 3. u.s. bureau of labor statistics, 2015. 4. ibid. 5. u.s. news, http://www.usnews.com/education/best-colleges/the-short-list-college /articles/2014/10/28/10-colleges-where-in-state-students-pay-the-most-tuition. references beard, john r., simon biggs, david e. bloom, linda p. fried, paul hogan, alexandre kalache, and s. jay olshansky. 2011. “global population ageing: peril or promise?” world economic forum, geneva. bureau of labor statistics. 2016. employment situation summary. economic news release, march 4. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm (march 4, 2016). carnevale, anthony p., andrew r. hanson, and artem gulish. 2013. failure to launch: structural shift and the new lost generation. washington, dc. center for workforce information and analysis. 2015. pa monthly workstats. harrisburg, pa. dychtwald, ken, tamara erickson, and bob morison. 2004. “it’s time to retire retirement.” harvard business review 82 (3): 48–57. eichhorst, werner, tito boeri, michela braga, an de coen, vicenzo galasso, maarten gerard, michael kendzia, et al. 2013. combining the entry of young people in the labour market with the retention of older workers. iza research report series. bonn, more trouble ahead for public school finance 69 germany. http://www.iza.org/en/webcontent/publications/reports/report_pdfs/ report_pdfs/iza_report_53.pdf (march 6, 2016). erickson, william a., camille lee, and sarah von schrader. 2014. 2012 disability status report—pennsylvania. ithaca, ny. http://www.disabilitystatistics.org/ (march 6, 2016). file, thom. 2014. young-adult voting: an analysis of presidential elections, 1964–2012. current population survey reports, 20-572. washington, dc. http://www.census.gov/ prod/2014pubs/p20-573.pdf (march 4, 2016). findsen, brian, and marvin formosa. 2011. lifelong learning in later life: a handbook of older adult learning. rotterdam/boston/taipei: sense publishers. independent fiscal office. 2016. economic and budget outlook: commonwealth of pennsylvania. harrisburg, pa. levin, kelly, benjamin cashore, steven bernstein, and graeme auld. 2009. “playing it forward: path dependency, progressive incrementalism, and the ‘super wicked’ problem of global climate change.” iop conference series: earth and environmental science 6 (50): 502002. doi:10.1088/1755-1307/6/0/502002. http://iopscience.iop .org/article/10.1088/1755-1307/6/50/502002/meta;jsessionid=63891d6c475856fbf1 02b40cdaf723ed.c4 mcclure, maureen w., lou sabina, and vera krekanova. 2016. “adequacy: a comparative study of generational financial interests in florida and pennsylvania.” presented at the annual meeting of the national education finance conference, jacksonville, fl. mérette, marcel. 2007. “substitution between young and old workers in an ageing context.” international conference on policy modeling (ecomod), sao paulo, brazil. newhook, emily. 2015. “the cost of aging in america.” public health online, george washinghton university. http://publichealthonline.gwu.edu/cost-of-aging/ (march 6, 2016). powell, jason l. 2013. globalization and global aging. new york: nova science publishers. rudawska, iga. 2010. “active ageing and labour market.” economics and sociology 3 (1): 9–24. samorodov, alexander. 1999. ageing and labour markets for older workers. employment and training papers. geneva: employment and training department international labour office geneva. schleicher, andreas. 2013. skilled for life? key findings from the survey of adult skills. paris: oecd publishing. symonds, william c., robert schwartz, and ronald f. ferguson. 2011. pathways to prosperity: meeting the challange of preparing young americans for the 21st century. https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/4740480/pathways_to_prosper ity_feb2011-1.pdf?sequence=1 (march 15, 2016). taleb, nassim nicholas. 2010. the black swan: the impact of the highly improbable. 2nd ed. london: penguin. taylor, paul. 2014. the next america: boomers, millennials, and the looming generational showdown. 1st ed. new york: public affairs. tucker, catherine. 2012. pennsylvania population projections: fertility, mortality and migration. http://papers.ccpr.ucla.edu/download.php?paper=pwp-pri-2012-001 (march 15, 2016). u.s. census bureau. 2014. 65+ in the united states: 2010. washington, dc. structure bookmarks prologue education: losing its fan base? generational threat to revenue stability is relief on the way? so what is the road forward? commonwealth: a journal of pennsylvania politics and policy frontmatter commonweal a journal of pennsylvania politics and p th olicy editor-in-chief j. wesley leckrone, widener university book review editor/ associate editor thomas j. baldino, wilkes university associate editors michelle j. atherton, temple university christopher borick, muhlenberg college paula holoviak, kutztown university joseph p. mclaughlin, jr., temple university editorial advisory board bruce caswell, rowan university beverly a. cigler, pennsylvania state university, harrisburg richardson dilworth, drexel university john j. kennedy, west chester university john kincaid, lafayette college david y. miller, university of pittsburgh joseph marbach, georgian court university megan mullin, duke university richard a. stafford, carnegie mellon university copy editor barbara crawford editorial assistant nicole crossey, widener university founding editor emeritus donald g. tannenbaum, gettysburg college editors emeritus thomas j. baldino, wilkes university gerard j. fitzpatrick, ursinus college published by temple university press on behalf of the pennsylvania political science association commonwealth, volume 18, issue 1 (june 2016). © 2016 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/cjppp.v18i1.78. all rights reserved. the pennsylvania political science association officers and executive council 2015–2016 president first vice president second vice president christopher borick steven peterson lanethea mathews-schultz muhlenberg college pennsylvania state university, muhlenberg college harrisburg treasurer secretary steven b. lem paula holoviak kutztown university kutztown university executive council 2013–2016 2014–2017 2015–2018 joseph p. mclaughlin, jr. michelle demary michelle j. atherton temple university susquehanna university temple university ayesha ray kyle kreider michael greenberg king’s college wilkes university shippensburg university ex officio members past president past president brooke harlowe stanley berard lock haven university lock haven university editorial staff of commonwealth: a journal of pennsylvania politics and policy editor-in-chief associate editor & book review editor j. wesley leckrone thomas j. baldino widener university wilkes university editor emeritus founding editor emeritus gerard j. fitzpatrick donald g. tannenbaum ursinus college gettysburg college pennsylvania policy forum commonwealth collaborates with the pennsylvania policy forum to plan special issues and attract high-quality content to the journal. the forum is a consortium of faculty members and academic and policy institute leaders from pennsylvania colleges and universities who share an interest in generating ideas, analyses, and symposiums that might prove useful to citizens, elected officials, and civic leaders in addressing major issues confronting the commonwealth and its local governments. as educators who have helped train students for careers in public policy, members also share an interest in helping to improve the skills, knowledge, and tools of leaders in the public and civic sectors. members of the forum have expertise in not only public policy analysis but also a wide range of substantive issues, including but not limited to education, transportation and public infrastructure, economic development, agriculture, energy, elections, water policy and the environment, health care, social policy, urban development, emergency management, information technology, public finance, and constitutional law. members also share an interest in improving both the policy process and the institutional structures through which issues and problems are addressed. forum members have contributed to public policy debates in pennsylvania, and a number have also served in state and local government and in nonprofit and civic organizations that engage in policy development and implementation. some members of the forum are associated with other academic and public policy–related organizations, but the forum itself is independent of these relationships and has no formal connections to any government entity. members clearly benefit from the intellectual resources and environments of their universities, but unless otherwise indicated they do not act on behalf of their institutions when they sponsor forum projects. the premise of the forum is that through the consortium, members can jointly develop and sponsor nonpartisan research, symposiums, and education and training programs of value to elected officials, civic leaders, and the public and thereby enhance their ability to contribute to more intelligent and informed policy making. pennsylvania policy forum membership (2016) theodore r. alter, professor of agricultural, environmental, and regional economics, pennsylvania state university michelle j. atherton, associate director, institute for public affairs, temple university thomas j. baldino, professor of political science, wilkes university michael cassidy, adjunct instructor of political science, temple university beverly a. cigler, professor of public policy and administration, pennsylvania state university, harrisburg richardson dilworth, associate professor of political science and director of the center for public policy, drexel university michael r. dimino, sr., associate professor of law, widener university commonwealth law school (chair) paula holoviak, professor of political science, kutztown university john j. kennedy, associate professor of political science, west chester university michael king, adjunct professor, albright college and temple university, and associate professor, pennsylvania state university (retired) robin lauermann, professor of politics and international relations, messiah college (vice chair) joseph p. mclaughlin, jr., director of the institute for public affairs, temple university david y. miller, associate professor and director of the innovation clinic, graduate school of public and international affairs, university of pittsburgh randall m. miller, professor of history, st. joseph’s university theresa miller, director, institute of politics, university of pittsburgh joseph sabino mistick, associate professor of law, duquesne university school of law richard a. stafford, distinguished service professor of public policy, heinz college, carnegie mellon university david b. thornburgh, executive director of the committee of 70 craig wheeland, associate vice president for academic affairs and professor, villanova university contents volume 18, number 1 | june 2016 | issn 2469-7672 ■ about the authors ■ commonwealth matters | j. wesley leckrone, editor-in-chief ■ an introduction to the special issue on education policy | joseph p. mclaughlin, jr., and michelle j. atherton ■ commonwealth forum: should pennsylvania abolish the property tax for schools? y es, abolish the property tax: it is the worst tax for schools | david g. argall and jon hopcraft no, keep the proper ty tax: it is the best tax for schools | william a. fischel ■ what would student-based allocation mean for pennsylvania school districts? | marguerite roza and amanda warco ■ higher standards and lower achievement? an evaluation of pennsylvania’s keystone exams | adam mcglynn ■ more trouble ahead for public school finance: the implications of generational change in pennsylvania | maureen w. mcclure and vera krekanova ■ special education funding in pennsylvania: the effects of a policy of neglect | william t. hartman ■ the education policy bookshelf: an annotated bibliography of selected studies | meghan e. rubado about the authors david g. argall is a member of the pennsylvania senate and chair of the senate republican policy committee. michelle j. atherton is the associate director of temple university’s institute for public affairs and coeditor of the special issue on education of commonwealth: a journal of pennsylvania politics and policy. william a. fischel is a professor of economics and hardy professor of legal studies at dartmouth college. william t. hartman is a professor of education in the college of education at pennsylvania state university and a cofounder and executive director of the center for total quality schools at penn state. jon hopcraft is the director of the senate republican policy committee. vera krekanova is the director of strategy and research for the three rivers workforce investment board. maureen w. mcclure is an associate professor of administrative and policy studies and senior research associate at the international institute for studies in education in the school of education at the university of pittsburgh. adam mcglynn is an associate professor of political science at east stroudsburg university of pennsylvania. joseph p. mclaughlin, jr., is the director of temple university’s institute for public affairs and coeditor of the special issue on education of commonwealth: a journal of pennsylvania politics and policy. marguerite roza is the director of the edunomics lab at georgetown university and a senior research affiliate at the center on reinventing public education. meghan e. rubado is a graduate assistant at temple university’s center on regional politics, housed within the institute for public affairs, and a phd candidate in temple’s department of political science. amanda warco is a research associate in the edunomics lab at georgetown university. book reviews commonwealth, volume 18, issue 2 (2016). © 2016 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/cjppp.v18i2.127. all rights reserved. book reviews ■ choosing state supreme court justices: merit selection and the consequences of institutional reform. greg goelzhauser. 2016. philadelphia: temple university press. isbn: 9781-4 39913406 (paper). for years, pennsylvanians for modern courts and the pennsylvania bar association have been working to change how pennsylvania selects its judges. currently, all state judges within the commonwealth are chosen in partisan elections, but there has been a sustained drive to amend the state’s constitution to create a form of merit selection, whereby a nominating commission forwards select names to the governor, who then makes the appointment. many pennsylvania officials, including governors, have supported the adoption of merit selection. the question regarding how states choose their judges speaks to important concerns relating to democratic theory, namely whether the people should elect their judges or whether merit selection or gubernatorial appointment sufficiently shields judges from the whims of the masses. in this book, goelzhauser wades into the debate by presenting some needed empirical evidence related to judicial selection methods. for decades, numerous claims have been proffered that merit selection systems somehow produce “better” judges and legal outcomes. rather than accepting this at book reviews 125 face value, goelzhauser presents his evidence and adds much-needed nuance to the debate. given the recent clamor for merit selection, goelzhauser first answers the question of how and when it originated. while states have experimented with various selection methods, states began moving toward merit selection in the early twentieth century, a reform consistent with the progressive era. at that time, many people were concerned with how often politics was mixed with the delivery of justice, which eventually led many states to experiment with merit selection. what is clear, however, is that in recent years, states have been moving away from judicial elections and replacing them with some form of merit selection. currently, “more than half of all states have experimented with merit selection systems for at least some of their state supreme court justices” (p. 33). in chapter 3, goelzhauser investigates “whether judicial selection systems produce state supreme court justices with different types of professional experience” (p. 48). the judicial selection debate produces competing claims about whether merit systems are more or less likely to produce judges with political connections. after compiling a database for all state supreme court judges from 1960 to 2004, goelzhauser finds that there are “more similarities than differences across selection systems in terms of the work experience compiled by state supreme court justices” (p. 56) and that judges with varying experiences are seated across all forms of selection systems. proponents of merit selection often claim that merit selection produces better qualified judges than any other form of judicial selection. in chapter 4, goelzhauser presents original empirical research to evaluate this claim. while “better qualified” is somewhat subjective, goelzhauser argues that most individuals equate judicial qualifications with the quality of the law school the judge attended, as well as judicial experience. the results, however, demonstrate that “no selection system enjoys a systematic advantage over any other system” (p. 82). in recent years, we have also seen the claim that merit selection produces a more diverse judiciary. the idea behind this is that with judicial elections, the people choose candidates that are predominantly white and male. once again, goelzhauser does not accept these claims at face value; rather, he puts these claims to an empirical test. in chapter 5, goelzhauser “trace[s] the historical development of the push toward gender and racial diversification of the judiciary” (p. 86), explains how “arguments linking merit selection with increased judicial diversification became more popular” during president carter’s administration (pp. 86–87), and seeks to answer some of the claims using new data. 126 kyle l. kreider the diversity data is interesting. goelzhauser demonstrates that “selection systems matter for the diversification of state supreme courts but not necessarily in a consistent way” (p. 106). merit selection is less likely than appointment to produce female or minority candidates but more likely than elections to produce nonwhite individuals. as states, including pennsylvania, are debating whether to replace judicial elections with either merit selection or gubernatorial appointment, policymakers should be aware of the empirical findings that speak to the many claims made by interest groups and organizations regarding the advantages and disadvantages of each judicial selection method. goelzhauser’s research makes clear that there is no magic formula and that the strengths and weaknesses of each judicial selection method are more nuanced than we might want to admit. states should proceed with caution and temper their expectations regardless of which judicial selection method is adopted. kyle l. kreider, associate professor of political science, wilkes university ■ a nice place to visit: tourism and urban revitalization in the postwar rustbelt. aaron cowan. 2016. philadelphia: temple university press. isbn: 978-1-4399-1346-8 (paper). on april 20, 1965, pennsylvania governor william scranton spoke to a joint session of the general assembly on the future of the commonwealth’s urban communities. he stated that “[f]or of all human creations none is more perverse than the urban community. it gives with one hand, and takes away with the other. cities exist, for example, to provide otherwise impossible opportunities for economic development. yet, they also spawn the cruelest poverty.” governor scranton’s comments succinctly sum up the difficulty cities faced in postworld war ii america. historically urban centers had been viewed as the economic lynchpins of metropolitan areas. however, suburbanization, deindustrialization and race relations contributed to a white exodus from cities. left behind were abandoned downtowns, poor housing stock, and a dearth of job opportunities that led to increased concentration of poverty. the primary question for policymakers was how to reverse this decline and revitalize cities and their place in american life. aaron cowan’s a nice place to visit explores the privileged place that political and civic leaders gave to tourism as the primary method to rejuvenate urban economies. he selects four midsized rustbelt cities, because they were especially hurt by deindustrialization. each city lacked major historical or book reviews 127 cultural attractions that would entice visitors, so they needed to create reasons for out-o ftowners and suburbanites in their metropolitan region to visit the downtown area. cowan follows the development of tourism trends in postwar american cities through case studies of investments in hotels (cincinnati), convention centers (st. louis), sports stadiums (pittsburgh), and festival marketplaces (baltimore). several common themes emerge from the case studies. first, the revitalization of cities focused on encouraging economic development in central cities at the expense of other potential policy solutions. cowan argues that there was a conscious, and not historically inevitable, decision to focus on economic growth to help cities deal with poverty rather than invest in human capital through education or other services. this became even more prevalent after urban riots in the 1960s led to a revolt of middleclass whites against programs such as the model cities of the great society. second, clearing urban space for tourist development often meant displacing or marginalizing the poor, particularly minorities. barriers or buffer zones were often developed to isolate downtowns from lowincome communities. consequently redeveloped urban spaces alleviated the fears of crime and otherness that were necessary to attract conventions and tourists at the expense of being welcoming to everyone. finally, the more successful attempts at urban revitalization created shared spaces across classes and races rather than creating isolated islands of economic activity within a city’s core. anchor hotels and convention centers focused on luring national audiences to cities and offered little of interest to the surrounding metropolitan area. conversely, at their best, stadiums and festival markets such as baltimore’s harbor place attracted tourists as well as residents from the city and the surrounding suburbs. cowan positions himself between advocates of tourism development and critics who claim it has resulted in the “disneyfication” of the urban experience. his case studies show that while tourism has not been a panacea for urban ills, it has improved the financial footing of cities and, in some cases, reconnected them with their suburban populations. cowan concludes that tourism is an important ingredient in a comprehensive plan to revitalize cities. the discussion of the renaissance of pittsburgh is a primary example. the effort was led by the allegheny conference on community development (accd), an organization that had the support of business and political leaders. over several decades accd spearheaded a comprehensive plan revitalizing the city through “pollution and flood controls, slum clearance, redevelopment of downtown, and heavy private and public investment in restricting the region’s economy” (p. 104). the plan to diversify the economy by focusing on higher education, finance, and technology allowed the city to weather the 128 j. wesley leckrone decline of the steel industry. this included many of the tools used by other cities in the second half of the twentieth century. eminent domain was used to condemn and demolish abandoned or unsightly properties downtown. they were replaced with new business development, a convention center, civic arena, and a park. however, cowan contends that one tourism project was the lynchpin that brought the entire master plan together to rebrand pittsburgh: three rivers stadium. he argues sports were an important part of consumer culture in the 1970s that helped attract suburbanites to the city. a new stadium, built on reclaimed railroad and industrial property across the river from downtown, combined with the success of the steelers and pirates during the 1970s, helped to rebrand the city. cowan argues that the national attention paid to the teams and the stadium provided positive press for the city and helped shift its image from a “smoky center of industry” to the “city of champions.” most important, it contributed to a sense of civic pride that united the pittsburgh metropolitan region. hotelo r conventioncentered tourism sought to segregate visitors from the urban population. alternatively, three rivers stadium was a public expenditure that helped bring together people of all races and socioeconomic classes. cowan concludes that the attention paid to tourism as a form of economic development in the last half of the twentieth century was a conscious choice by urban leaders to find an easy fix to deindustrialization and suburbanization. this focus helped stem the economic decline of cities. however, poverty is still a major problem in all four cities explored in a nice place to visit. cowan seems to prefer a policy solution that would focus on revitalizing human capital rather than economic development. however, the pragmatist in him is resigned to the attention given to growth in neoliberal city regimes. in that context pittsburgh seems like a good model to follow, if you’re a city leader. j. wesley leckrone, associate professor, department of political science, widener university ■ undocumented fears: immigration and the politics of divide and conquer in hazleton, pennsylvania. jamie longazel. 2016. philadelphia: temple university press. isbn: 9781439912683 (paper). in undocumented fears: immigration and the politics of divide and conquer in hazleton, pennsylvania, jamie longazel frames a liberation sociological approach to the study of racial and ethnic change in small-town america. book reviews 129 the author uses the philosophy of “neoliberalism,” defined as “implementing the most ruthless economic and political policies without having to open such actions to public debate and dialogue,” to discuss one city’s reaction to the rapid growth of its hispanic population. in his sociological approach, the author attempts to compare and contrast a “latino threat narrative” to a “white affirmation narrative.” referencing many sources and citations, the author examines the approximately five to six years of socioeconomic and political activities before, during, and after the passage of hazelton’s municipal ordinance: the illegal immigration reform act (2006) (iira). while much more narrowly focused, the theory applied in this study appears to be similar to that utilized by dan rose in his work entitled, energy transition and the local community: a theory of society applied to hazleton, pennsylvania. rose, like longazel, posits that dramatic socioeconomic changes within small towns are often addressed not with progressive approaches, or with a bestpossiblesolution scenario; instead, the objective is to retain the status quo, devising a policy acceptable to the community. in a broader sense, cohen, et al.’s garbage can model of policy making may be more applicable here, because it suggests that independent problems, opportunities, and solutions exist until a solution is selected that fits rather than a solution developed for the specific problem. the author effectively depicts the creation and success of the economic development organization known as can do. however, the unwillingness or inability of the can do leadership to change or update its corporate model led to business locating in its industrial park that offered mostly lowskilled and lowpaying jobs. the hazelton community, which had changed little in ethnicity and racial makeup (98–99% white non-h ispanic) in over 50 years, attempted to solve its societal problems by not changing. the white population misunderstood the different languages and cultures of those newly arrived residents, thereby creating a racial divide and the iira. longazel’s depiction of the divisions in hazleton pennsylvania, during the first decade of the twentyfirst century is no different from those divisions of a century earlier, when white, english speaking residents discriminated against the white, nonenglish-s peaking immigrants. race was not a factor. the story of american immigration always seems to involve one or more established ethnic groups looking down the socioeconomic ladder on those newly arriving. the author provides extensive commentary about the ordinance and the legal proceedings that challenged it. a more thorough analysis of the political structure and the events surrounding the ordinance, however, might have 130 david p. sosar revealed that both sides of the conflict lacked effective leadership, which could have promoted the “building of bridges.” without effective leadership and fruitful dialogue, compromise and equitable solutions cannot be achieved. the author is clear in his presentation and applies his theory in an effective manner. based on the extensive notes provided, the footnote section can be read separately as an explanation of theory and analysis. the concepts used are applied to the events in the creation of and battle over the ordinance, but not to achieving a solution to the community’s problems. with further political analysis of both sides in this conflict, one may understand what actions the leaders might have taken to avert the ordinance and bring the two communities together. david p. sosar, associate professor of political science, king’s college commonwealth: a journal of pennsylvania politics and policy frontmatter commonwealth a journal of pennsylvania politics and policy editor-in-chief widener university managing editor michelle j. atherton, temple university book review editor/ associate editor thomas j. baldino, wilkes university associate editors christopher borick, muhlenberg college paula a. duda holoviak, kutztown university joseph p. mclaughlin, jr., temple university editorial advisory board bruce caswell, rowan university beverly a. cigler, pennsylvania state university, harrisburg richardson dilworth, drexel university john j. kennedy, west chester university john kincaid, lafayette college joseph marbach, georgian court university david y. miller, university of pittsburgh megan mullin, duke university richard a. stafford, carnegie mellon university copy editor barbara crawford editorial assistants monica gaydos, university of pittsburgh catherine long, widener university founding editor emeritus donald g. tannenbaum, gettysburg college editors emeritus thomas j. baldino, wilkes university gerard j. fitzpatrick, ursinus college j. wesley leckrone, published by temple university press on behalf of the pennsylvania political science association the pennsylvania political science association founded in 1939, the pennsylvania political science association (ppsa) is the nation’s oldest state political science association. its mission has always been to promote scholarship, research, and the exchange of ideas within the pennsylvania community of political scientists. ppsa draws its membership principally from the political science and public administration faculties of pennsylvania’s public and private colleges and universities but also includes government professionals and faculty members from surrounding states. ppsa’s annual conference includes dozens of panelists covering a wide variety of subjects. while university faculty compose the vast majority of participants, legislators, legislative staff, executive officials, and undergraduates also have participated. for more information on the activities of ppsa and membership rates, please visit the association’s website at http://www.papolisci.org/. http://www.papolisci.org/ the pennsylvania political science association officers and executive council 2017–2018 president steven peterson pennsylvania state university, harrisburg first vice president a. lanethea mathews-s chultz muhlenberg college second vice president michael greenberg shippensburg university treasurer steven b. lem kutztown university secretary paula a. duda holoviak kutztown university executive council 2015–2018 michelle j. atherton temple university heather frederick slippery rock university 2016–2019 joseph p. mclaughlin, jr. temple university jennie sweetcushman chatham college 2017–2020 justin deplato robert morris university sarah niebler dickinson college ex officio members immediate past president christopher borick muhlenberg college past president brooke harlowe lock haven university past president stanley berard lock haven university editorial staff of commonwealth: a journal of pennsylvania politics and policy editor in chief j. wesley leckrone widener university book review editor & editor emeritus thomas j. baldino wilkes university editor emeritus gerard j. fitzpatrick ursinus college founding editor emeritus donald g. tannenbaum gettysburg college pennsylvania policy forum c ommonwealth collaborates with the pennsylvania policy forum to plan special issues and attract high-q uality content to the journal. the forum is a consortium of faculty members and academic and policy institute leaders from pennsylvania colleges and universities who share an interest in generating ideas, analyses, and symposiums that might prove useful to citizens, elected officials, and civic leaders in addressing major issues confronting the commonwealth and its local governments. as educators who have helped train students for careers in public policy, members also share an interest in helping to improve the skills, knowledge, and tools of leaders in the public and civic sectors. members of the forum have expertise in public policy analysis as well as a wide range of substantive issues, including but not limited to education, transportation and public infrastructure, economic development, agriculture, energy, elections, water policy and the environment, health care, social policy, urban development, emergency management, information technology, public finance, and constitutional law. members also share an interest in improving both the policy process itself and the institutional structures through which issues and problems are addressed. forum members have contributed to public policy debates in pennsylvania, and a number have also served in state and local government and in nonprofit and civic organizations that engage in policy development and implementation. some members of the forum are associated with other academic and public policy–related organizations, but the forum itself is independent of these relationships and has no formal connections to any government entity. members obviously benefit from the intellectual resources and environments of their universities, but unless otherwise indicated, they do not act on behalf of their institutions when they sponsor forum projects. the premise of the forum is that through the consortium, members can jointly develop and sponsor nonpartisan research, symposiums, and education and training programs of value to elected officials, civic leaders, and the public and thereby enhance their ability to contribute to more intelligent and informed policymaking. pennsylvania policy forum membership (2018) theodore r. alter, professor of agricultural, environmental, and regional economics, pennsylvania state university michelle j. atherton, associate director, institute for public affairs, temple university thomas j. baldino, professor of political science, wilkes university michael cassidy, adjunct instructor of political science, temple university beverly a. cigler, professor of public policy and administration, pennsylvania state university, harrisburg richardson dilworth, professor of political science and director of the center for public policy, drexel university michael r. dimino, sr., associate professor of law, widener university commonwealth law school (chair) paula a. duda holoviak, professor of political science, kutztown university mark alan hughes, professor of practice at penndesign and faculty director of the kleinman center for energy policy, university of pennsylvania john j. kennedy, professor of political science, west chester university michael king, adjunct professor, albright college and temple university, and associate professor, pennsylvania state university (retired) robin lauermann, professor of politics and international relations, messiah college j. wesley leckrone, associate professor of political science, widener university nelson lim, executive director, fels institute of government, university of pennsylvania (vice chair) joseph p. mclaughlin, jr., director of the institute for public affairs, temple university david y. miller, associate professor and director of the innovation clinic, graduate school of public and international affairs, university of pittsburgh randall m. miller, professor of history, st. joseph’s university theresa miller, director, institute of politics, university of pittsburgh joseph sabino mistick, associate professor of law, duquesne university school of law richard a. stafford, distinguished service professor of public policy, heinz college, carnegie mellon university david b. thornburgh, executive director of the committee of seventy craig wheeland, associate vice president for academic affairs and professor, villanova university contents volume 20, numbers 2–3 | 2018 | issn 2469 7672 editors’ note ■ the heroin and opioid epidemic: pennsylvania’s statewide disaster emergency | mark a. nordenberg and janice l. pringle, special issue editors articles ■ commonwealth forum: law enforcement in the twenty-first century: par tnering to combat the opioid overdose epidemic | josh shapiro ■ drug overdoses in pennsylvania: measuring, tracking, and forecasting the epidemic | donald s. burke and jeanine m. buchanich ■ prevention of opioid addiction | ralph e. tarter, gerald cochran, and maureen reynolds ■ treatment, overdose, and finding the road to recovery | michael t. flaherty ■ forgotten but not gone: the impact of the opioid epidemic and other substance use disorders on families and children | dennis c. daley, erin smith, daniel balogh, and jodi toscolani ■ physician responses to the opioid epidemic in the context of populationbased pain and opioid care | ajay d. wasan ■ the pennsylvania prescription drug monitoring program: reducing the misuse of prescription opioids | lynn s. mirigian, laura a. hendrick, janice l. pringle, and michael a. zemaitis ■ the role of community coordinated efforts in combating the opioid overdose crisis: the pennsylvania opioid overdose reduction technical assistance center | lynn s. mirigian, marco f. pugliese, janice l. pringle, and monica f. gaydos commonwealth: a journal of pennsylvania politics and policy backmatter library recommendation form to: librarian/library acquisition committee from:_______________________________________________________________________________ position: ______________________________ department: ___________________________________ e-mail:_________________________________ phone: ________________________________________ i recommend that our library subscribe to the following journal: commonwealth: a journal of pennsylvania politics and policy published by temple university press on behalf of the pennsylvania political science association editor: j. wesley leckrone, widener university published online three times a year issn 2469-7672 https://tupjournals.temple.edu/index.php/commonwealth/index i recommend a subscription to commonwealth for the following reasons: r personal reference: i am a contributor to this publication and therefore require access to the research published in this journal. i will regularly recommend articles to my colleagues/students. r research: i require access to this publication to support my research and keep up-to-date with developments in the field. r student use: i plan to browse the contents of new issues regularly to add to my students’ reading lists and refer to this publication as a study tool. r benefit for library: this publication will benefit the library's collection development and strengthen our research output in this field. r other: ______________________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________________________________________________ commonwealth can be ordered through your subscription agent or online by going to https://tupjournals.temple.edu/index.php/commonwealth/about/subscriptions and clicking on the appropriate option. www.temple.edu/tempress tempress@temple.edu dr. j. wesley leckrone department of political science widener university chester, pa 19013 phone: 610-499-4633 e mail: jwleckrone@widener.edu guidelines for submitting manuscripts commonwealth is a peerr eviewed journal founded by the pennsylvania political science association in 1987. initially named commonwealth: a journal of political science, in 2016 the publication was retitled commonwealth: a journal of pennsylvania politics and policy. all ppsa members are entitled to access to commonwealth through temple university press’s website at https://tupjournals.temple.edu/index.php/commonwealth/index. commonwealth is seeking manuscripts across a broad range of topics related to the politics, policy, and political history of pennsylvania. the journal is interdisciplinary in nature, appealing to scholars and practitioners in fields such as political science, public administration, public policy, and history. commonwealth’s editorial staff, editorial review board, and referees maintain the highest standards of peer review and publication. we’re looking for the following types of content for commonwealth: ■ general articles on pennsylvania state and local government ■ multistate comparative analyses featuring pennsylvania or its regions ■ impacts of federal policies on the commonwealth ■ analyses of specific public policy issues ■ public administration and implementation politics in pennsylvania ■ pennsylvania political history ■ public law and the courts in the commonwealth ■ pennsylvania campaigns, elections, and public opinion ■ international relations with clear consequences for pennsylvania and its regions manuscripts should be submitted via em ail in microsoft word format. the preferred length is 15–30 doubles paced pages, including notes, references, tables, and appendices. format should follow the american political science association’s style manual for political science. for guidance, authors should consult previous issues of commonwealth, the american political science review, or the editor. additional information about submissions may be found on the temple university press website at https://tupjournals.temple.edu/index.php/commonwealth/index. manuscripts should be submitted as e mail attachments (no paper copies) to: https://tupjournals.temple.edu/index.php/commonwealth/index%7bcomp https://tupjournals.temple.edu/index.php/commonwealth/index.%7bcomp mailto:jwleckrone@widener.edu%7bcomp dr. tom baldino department of political science wilkes university wilkes barre, pa 18766 phone: 5704084474 e mail: thomas.baldino@wilkes.edu book reviews commonwealth will consider proposals for reviews of texts that examine politics and policy in pennsylvania. the books’ primary focus should be on the commonwealth, its regions, or local politics in the state. we also welcome proposals about books that place pennsylvania in a comparative context with other states in the region or country. reviews should not be undertaken until the book review editor has accepted a proposal. submit proposals and brief curriculum vitae to: mailto:thomas.baldino@wilkes.edu%7bcomp book 1.indb commonwealth forum: should pennsylvania enact a natural gas severance tax? yes severance taxes are fees levied on the extraction of natural resources from the ground, such as coal, petroleum, and natural gas. because of technology advances, pennsylvania has become the second largest producer of natural gas in the united states over the last decade. however, we are the only major producer of natural gas that does not have a severance tax. pennsylvania’s independent fiscal office estimates that the tax proposal supported by governor tom wolf would raise $218 million dollars during the 2018–2019 fiscal year, with revenue growing to $420 million by 2022–2023. opponents of the severance tax support their argument with two major claims that don’t hold up to scrutiny. first, they state that the severance tax would increase the cost of natural gas to pennsylvanians, thus hurting vulnerable populations that already have difficulty paying for electricity and heat. data from the u.s. energy information administration show that pennsylvania is among the largest net exporters of natural gas in the country. states like new york, new jersey, and maryland rely on our imports, and newer pipelines are getting ready to ship more gas to other mid-atlantic and midwestern states. in effect we are subsidizing natural gas being used in other states by not having a severance tax. what’s the sense in that? opponents also claim that pennsylvanians are already taxed enough. ironically, the other four largest natural gas producers all have severance taxes: texas, oklahoma, louisiana, and wyoming. no one would call these states hotbeds of tax and spend liberalism. the other states adopted the severance tax for a reason: it shifts the tax burden from their citizens to consumers in other states. that just makes sense. so whether you support investments in new policy programs or cuts to the state income tax or local property tax relief, there is one thing we should all agree on: a severance tax on natural gas in pennsylvania would benefit our citizens. no governor wolf ran for election on the pledge to enact a natural gas severance tax in pennsylvania. since the beginning of his tenure, he has pushed to the environment 173 implement the tax on gas producers in the state, but to no avail, and for good reason. pennsylvania already has high corporate net income taxes, 9.99 percent, and an impact fee, essentially a tax, on each new well drilled as enacted under governor corbett in 2012. according to the pennsylvania public utility commission, gas companies have paid in excess of $1.4 billion in fees since 2012. this does not include corporate taxes. this money is then distributed across the state to drilling counties and municipalities, as well as distributed in smaller measure to nondrilling governments for use in defined programs such as tax reduction, social services, emergency preparedness, and environmental or infrastructure improvements. the marcellus shale coalition estimates that the average nonconventional well produces about $310,000 in impact fees over an operation of fifteen years. the state also allocates some of the impact fee to the pennsylvania department of environmental protection, the pennsylvania fish and boat commission, and the pennsylvania emergency management agency. every county receives a portion of the fee for recreation and conservation efforts. some money is also dedicated to statewide environmental and infrastructure initiatives such as growing greener and water and sewer projects. gas drillers are subject to the personal income tax if they are registered as llcs, partnerships, or s corporations. they also pay the sales and use tax, and the liquid fuels tax. in essence, natural gas companies are already paying a severance tax on drilling. call it a fee, but a tax under any other name is still a tax. for more information conservation voters of pa (https:// www .conservationpa .org) is a 501(c)(4) political action committee dedicated to electing candidates for responsible environmental stewardship in the state of pennsylvania. the marcellus shale coalition (http:// marcelluscoalition .org) works with producers and supply chain companies in the marcellus and utica shale regions to represent their interests to the public and policy makers. penn future (https:// www .pennfuture .org) is a nonprofit based in harrisburg advocating for clean air, water, and a healthy environment. the pennsylvania public utility commission (http:// www .puc .state .pa .us) balances the needs of consumers and utilities, regulates reliable utility service, and educates consumers about utility choices. from pennsylvania politics and policy: a commonwealth reader, volume 2. edited by michelle j. atherton and j. wesley leckrone (philadelphia, temple university press, 2019). book 1.indb commonwealth forum: should pennsylvania end the practice of hold-harmless funding? yes pennsylvania’s policy of hold-harmless education finance ensures the same level of funding since 2015 for each of the state’s five hundred school districts no matter how many students are enrolled in that district. instead of funding students, in other words, the state funds districts. no other state in the country abides such a practice. if another state does not fund on a per-student basis, they either smooth the transition from year to year using rolling averages, or dedicate a certain percentage of the previous year’s higher allocation. not a single state guarantees continuous level funding from a previous date. the state’s hold-harmless practice was even more egregious between the 1991–2008 and 2011–2015 periods, when there was no explicit education funding formula. pennsylvania’s newest funding formula enacted in 2016 dedicates only new dollars to the formula, not the earlier levels of funding. in effect, this results in stranding resources in districts that no longer need them, while denying students in growing districts and students in districts with higher need from receiving an equitable distribution of state taxes. public dollars dedicated to education should follow a logical pattern of distribution according to the basic characteristics of students and the district. for example, rural districts have high transportation costs because of sparsity, and urban districts have costs related to a higher number of english-language learners. pennsylvania’s education-finance system still does not take these factors into account, since the vast majority of dollars are still allocated based on out-of-date student counts from the early 1990s. that politicians in the legislature continue this system because of election ramifications is indefensible. no in reynolds v. sims (1964), chief justice earl warren wrote a classic defense of the idea of one person, one vote. he stated that “legislators represent people, not trees or acres. legislators are elected by voters, not farms or cities.” for the purposes of drawing legislative districts, geography does not matter. unfortunately, it does for school districts. the united states is a highly mobile society. people are constantly seeking better economic opportunities and are willing to move to find them. for 67.3 percent of pennsylvania school districts, this has meant a declining population over the twenty-year period ending in 2014. the loss of residents often means lower property ownership and property values, resulting in less revenue for schools. fewer students does not automatically mean precipitous declines in costs. state and federal mandates, pension financing, and the fixed costs of school facilities all continue to put pressure on school districts. rural areas in particular face problems of achieving economies of scale because of low population density and high transportation costs. the hold-harmless provision of the commonwealth’s school funding system have helped keep these school districts afloat. hold harmless is not the problem with education funding in pennsylvania. the state’s reliance on local revenue to fund schools should be the real focus of reform. in fiscal year 2015 the state spent $10.5 billion on elementary and secondary education. sounds like a lot, right? not when considering that local governments spent $16.2 billion. stated differently, pennsylvania paid 36.9 percent of education costs and local governments 56.5 percent. nationally, states pay 47.1 percent of education costs. in fiscal year 1973, the commonwealth’s share of education spending was 50.96 percent. if the state rededicated itself to funding at least half of the costs of education, hold harmless would not even be an issue. for more information the pennsylvania department of education (http:// www .education .pa .gov) provides public statistics on enrollment, the budget, student test scores, and a host of other information. a comprehensive analysis of the hold-harmless education-finance policies of the fifty states can be found through research done by the center on regional politics at temple university (http:// www .cla .temple .edu/ corp/ files/ 2014/ 12/ hh -policies -policy -brief .pdf). the education law center has a wealth of resources on school funding in the state (https:// www .elc -pa .org/). the commonwealth foundation is clearly opposed to the practice of hold harmless in its analyses and opinion pieces (https:// www .common wealthfoundation .org/). from pennsylvania politics and policy: a commonwealth reader, volume 1. edited by michelle j. atherton and j. wesley leckrone (philadelphia, temple university press, 2018). the education policy bookshelf the education policy bookshelf an annotated bibliography of selected studies meghan e. rubado temple university baker, bruce d., david g. sciarra, and danielle farrie. is school funding fair? a national report card. newark, nj: education law center, 2015. this report presents findings of a state-by-state comparative analysis of public school finance in the united states. it examines the level and distribution of school funding within each state in relation to student need. this edition (the fourth) of the report card is based on data from 2007 through 2012. the report notes that 14 states have regressive school funding. these states, which include pennsylvania, provide less funding to school districts with higher concentrations of poor students. center on regional politics (corp) of temple university. a large selection of policy briefs, reports, and presentations related to public education is available through the corp website (http://www.cla.temple.edu/corp/publications/) among them are these: atherton, michelle j. “how pennsylvania funds public schools: the story of the state share.” an issue memo published by corp, 2014. available at http://www.cla.temple.edu/corp/files/2012/12/state -share-issue-memo.pdf. commonwealth, volume 18, issue 1 (june 2016). © 2016 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/cjppp.v18i1.98. all rights reserved. 96 meghan e. rubado atherton, michelle j., and meghan e. rubado. “hold harmless education finance policies in the u.s.: a survey.” a policy brief published by corp, 2014. available at http://www.cla.temple.edu/corp /files/2014/12/hh-policies-policy-brief.pdf. hartman, william, and timothy shrom. “forecasting fiscal futures of pennsylvania school districts: where law and current policy are taking our public schools.” a policy brief published by corp, 2015. available at http://www.cla.temple.edu/corp/files/2015/05/fiscal -futures-hartman-shrom-web.pdf. leckrone, j. wesley. “the politics of educational change: what can we learn from the school consolidation acts of 1961 and 1963?” a policy brief published by corp, 2015. available at http://www.cla.tem ple.edu/corp/files/2015/04/school-consolidation-leckrone-web.pdf. mcnulty, eileen h. “growth and stability in public school revenue sources: can we have both?” a policy brief published by corp, 2014. available at http://www.cla.temple.edu/corp/files/2012/12/policy -brief-2-web.pdf. commonwealth of pennsylvania. “basic education funding commission final report and recommendations.” 2015. retrieved from http://basiceduca tionfundingcommission.pasenategop.com/files/2014/08/final-report-061915 -.pdf. this report presents the findings of the basic education funding commission, which was created by the pennsylvania general assembly in 2014 to examine the existing funding formula and provide recommendations for a new formula to distribute state funds in the bef appropriation. the report recommended a formula that distributes state funds according to student and school district factors. the formula includes factors reflecting student and community differences such as poverty, local tax effort and capacity, and rural and small district conditions. ———. “special education funding commission report.” 2013. retrieved from http://archive.pasbo.org/special%20ed%20commission%20final%20 report.pdf. this report presents the findings of the special education funding commission, which was created by the pennsylvania general the education policy bookshelf 97 assembly in 2013 to examine the distribution formula for state aid for special education. the report recommended a new formula that includes weighing factors that reflect varying levels of student needs (high, moderate, and low), as well as community factors, such as poverty, property tax levels, and rural and small district conditions. duffy, mark. “local school governance in philadelphia: a look at history and research.” philadelphia, pa: research for action, 2014. recognizing that school district governance in philadelphia has long been a subject of debate, the author examines the history of philadelphia school governance; surveys the governance structures in a sample of other large, urban school districts; and reviews research on various models of district governance. the other cities surveyed are baltimore, boston, chicago, denver, detroit, houston, los angeles, milwaukee, new york, and san diego. eichel, larry. “governing urban schools in the future: what’s facing philadelphia and pennsylvania.” philadelphia, pa: the pew charitable trusts philadelphia research initiative, 2016. this report presents the results of an analysis comparing key elements of philadelphia’s school governance system with those of 15 other major urban districts. the districts—serving atlanta, baltimore, boston, chicago, cleveland, denver, detroit, houston, indianapolis, los angeles, miami-dade, milwaukee, newark (nj), new york, and st. paul (mn)—were chosen for their size and their demographic and economic similarities to philadelphia. fischel, william a. the homevoter hypothesis: how home values influence local government taxation, school finance, and land-use policies. cambridge, ma: harvard university press, 2001. fischel argues that homeowners, regardless of their status as parents of schoolchildren, have a strong economic incentive to support local public schools with their property taxes for investments that make sense. if neighborhood schools are strong, and if property taxes and crime rates are low, then the value of homeowners’ principal assets—their homes—will rise. given their interest in home value, homeowners pay attention to local government, not only to protect their quality of life, but also to protect the value of 98 meghan e. rubado their largest assets. the book makes a case for local control of the fiscal and regulatory functions of government. ———. making the grade: the economic evolution of american school districts. chicago: university of chicago press, 2009. this book makes the case that the historical development of american school districts reflects citizens’ desire to make their local communities attractive to outsiders. this has resulted in a standardized, interchangeable system of public education not overly demanding for students or teachers. fischel focuses on bottom-up processes generated by individual behaviors and provides a new perspective on education reform that emphasizes how public schools form the basis for the localized social capital in american communities. goldstein, dana. the teacher wars: a history of america’s most embattled profession. new york: doubleday, 2014. goldstein tells the history of public school teaching in the united states, demonstrating a pattern of recurring questions related to the profession: who should teach? what should be taught? who should be held accountable for learning outcomes? these questions are not new, she shows, and neither are the hotbutton policy debates over merit pay, using test scores to evaluate teachers, and recruitment of top quality graduates into the field. these approaches have been tried before without producing widespread change. goldstein maps out an emerging effort with the potential to make a real difference in improving learning outcomes: drawing on the best practices of existing public school teachers. hanushek, eric a., and ludger woessmann. the knowledge capital of nations: education and the economics of growth. cambridge, ma: mit press, 2015. the authors argue that the knowledge of a nation’s workforce is an essential contributor to that nation’s long-term prosperity. but researchers and politicians often rely on poor proxies, such as average years of schooling or graduation rates. these proxies do not help explain economic performance because they do not measure knowledge. the authors find that a better measure of educathe education policy bookshelf 99 tional outcomes (scores on international tests, like pisa) correlate strongly with economic performance. ———. universal basic skills: what countries stand to gain. paris: oecd publishing, 2015. this oecd report documents the quality of educational outcomes in various nations and estimates the long-run economic gains of improving access to education and raising the quality of these outcomes. the report shows that many lower-performing countries could meet the goal of universal basic skills over the next 15 years, if they could replicate the approaches, practices, and records of rapidly improving education systems. hartman, william t. “analysis of special education enrollments and funding in rural and urban school districts in pennsylvania.” harrisburg, pa: center for rural pennsylvania. 2015. this report examines special education student enrollments in rural and urban school districts and in charter schools in pennsylvania. it includes a fiscal analysis of the expenditures and revenues from state, federal, and local sources, and it describes the longterm fiscal impacts of special education on school district budgets and state and federal funding levels. the research covers the period of 2002–2003 through 2012–2013 and uses financial and enrollment data from the pennsylvania department of education. kamenetz, anya. the test: why our schools are obsessed with standardized testing—but you don’t have to be. new york: publicaffairs, 2015. this book addresses the dramatic increase in standardized testing over the past 20 years—the tradeoffs it has created, the limitations and flaws of the tests, and the options for parents, teachers, and citizens who want better educational outcomes. it presents the stories of families, teachers, and schools to demonstrate how the testing game is played and won, and suggests what better tests might look like in the future. karoly, lynn a. “the economic impact of achievement gaps in pennsylvania’s public schools.” santa monica, ca: rand corp., 2015. this report, commissioned by temple university’s center on regional politics, projects that pennsylvania could realize tens 100 meghan e. rubado of billions of dollars in additional economic growth and move its students to the top of world and u.s. rankings by closing test score gaps based on race and ethnicity, family economic status, and parental education. the study documents the magnitude of the gaps and estimates the economic consequences of those gaps. klein, joel. lessons of hope: how to fix our schools. new york: harpercollins publishers, 2014. this memoir by the former chancellor of the new york city schools tells the story of the city’s campaign to improve public education. in 2002 new york mayor michael bloomberg won control of the city’s school system, and in a controversial move, he appointed joel klein, an accomplished lawyer from outside the education establishment, to lead the effort. klein describes his eight-year mission to improve outcomes by demanding accountability, eliminating political favoritism, and fighting the teachers union. klein’s initiatives are linked to more school choice, higher graduation rates, and improved test scores. he takes readers through the problems in public education, his ideas for tackling them, and the challenges he faced to make them reality in new york. mckinsey and company. “the economic impact of the achievement gap in america’s schools.” los angeles: mckinsey, 2009. this report quantifies racial and socioeconomic gaps in educational outcomes in the united states, as well as gaps between u.s. student outcomes and those of higher-performing countries, and connects these gaps to projected long-term economic losses to the american economy. the report estimates the gaps shortchange potential gross domestic product by trillions of dollars. peterson, paul e. and martin r. west. no child left behind? the politics and practice of school accountability. washington, dc: brookings institution, 2003. this scholarly assessment of the 2002 no child left behind act examines the law’s origins, the political and social forces that shaped it, the potential issues that will surface with its implementation, and the law’s likely consequences for american public education. portz, john, lana stein, and robin r. jones. city schools and city politics: institutions and leadership in pittsburgh, boston, and st. louis. lawrence: university of kansas press, 1999. the education policy bookshelf 101 this examination of the relationship between civic capacity and educational outcomes focuses on three rustbelt cities. the authors explore sources of variation across the cities in levels of civic support for public education. pittsburgh has had the most success in educational reform, followed by boston, while st. louis has lagged. the authors argue that successful reform is tied to cross-sectoral coalitions, organizational arrangements in the business community, leadership quality, and municipal institutions and culture. ravitch, diane. the death and life of the great american school system: how testing and choice are undermining education. new york: basic books, 2010. a national bestseller, this book evaluates current educational reform ideas, including charter schools, vouchers, and test-based accountability. ravitch, an education policy analyst and research professor at new york university, once supported such reform policies, but she carefully explains why these efforts have failed to bring about improvements in the american education system and how they may instead do harm. ripley, amanda. the smartest kids in the world: and how they got that way. new york: simon and schuster paperbacks, 2013. to explore why american students perform worse than so many other countries on international tests, ripley’s book explores the experiences of three american teenagers who spent a year in other countries that have rapidly improving educational systems: finland, south korea, and poland. she notes the features of the systems that differ dramatically from that of the united states. an example: in finland, to become a teacher, one must be an absolute top student and enroll in a competitive and rigorous teacher-training program. teachers in these systems are more universally talented, well trained, well paid, and respected professionals. roza, marguerite. educational economics: where do school funds go? washington, dc: urban institute press, 2010. this book examines education finance from the perspective of the public school. roza outlines the problems created by the complexity of the many educational funding streams, which include local, state, and federal sources, many of which are tied to specific programs or expenses. this system not only makes finance data 102 meghan e. rubado confusing, it also prevents schools from matching their spending to their specific priorities. roza argues that giving schools more flexibility in use of funds would allow them to spend more effectively and respond creatively to challenges. russakoff, dale. the prize: who’s in charge of america’s schools? new york: houghton mifflin harcourt publishing, 2015. this book presents the results of an investigation into the efforts to reform the public schools of newark, new jersey, following the 2010 donation of $100 million by mark zuckerberg, cofounder and ceo of facebook. the donation announcement launched an attempt by mayor cory booker and gov. chris christie to create a national model for education reform. russakoff ’s investigation covers a range of issues in education reform, including charter schools, testing, accountability, and philanthropic donors. she shows how the existing power structure of the newark political machine blocked attempts by zuckerberg, booker, and christie to engage the community and make meaningful changes. stone, clarence n., jeffrey r. henig, bryan d. jones, and carol pierannunzi. building civic capacity: the politics of reforming urban schools. lawrence: university of kansas press, 2001. past and current attempts to reform urban education have failed, the authors argue, largely because many cities lack “civic capacity”—the ability to build and maintain a broad social and political coalition across all sectors of the urban community in pursuit of a common goal. the book draws upon a study of 11 u.s. cities, including pittsburgh. the authors argue that a shared vision of problems and solutions among the large majority of important actors in a city is crucial for positive outcomes. drawing on data from several cities, the authors make the case that effective civic coalitions can be built. taylor, paul, and pew research center. the next america: boomers, millennials, and the looming generational showdown. new york: publicaffairs, 2014. drawing on pew public opinion surveys and demographic data, this book outlines dramatic changes in the american population and a widening gap between boomers and millennials. taylor examines these shifts and their implications: the aging of amerithe education policy bookshelf 103 can society has led to political polarization, a stressed social safety net, and a daunting challenge for elected leaders; how to keep faith with the old without bankrupting the young and starving the future. tough, paul. how children succeed: grit, curiosity, and the hidden power of character. new york: houghton mifflin harcourt publishing, 2012. tough argues that the qualities that matter most in determining life outcomes of children have to do with character: skills like perseverance, curiosity, optimism, and self-control. the character traits important in turning children into happy, successful adults come from encountering and overcoming failure, he argues. tough explains why both rich and poor american children are missing out on these character-shaping experiences. rich parents tend to protect their children from encountering failure, while poor parents may be unable to provide the support children need to overcome failure. tucker, marc s., ed. surpassing shanghai: an agenda for american education built on the world’s leading systems. cambridge, ma: harvard education press, 2011. this edited book looks at strategies that are used in nations that are achieving the best educational outcomes in the world. the first part of the book describes in detail the educational systems of shanghai, finland, japan, singapore, and canada. the book analyzes the contributing factors to success across the cases and proposes policies and practices of these top-performing systems that could be implemented in the united states. book 1.indb commonwealth forum: should pennsylvania adopt direct democracy? yes direct democracy, such as through the initiative, popular referendum, and recall processes, allows citizens to place statutes and sometimes amendments to the state constitution on the ballot. usually this requires the gathering of enough citizen signatures to put the proposal up for a popular vote. similarly, the recall process requires gathering signatures to remove an elected official from office and hold another election according to the popular vote. through these processes, citizens can overturn a law created by their legislature, put legislation on the ballot, or remove an unpopular politician from office, all while bypassing the usual legislative channels. pennsylvania is one of just sixteen states, mostly clustered on the eastern seaboard, with no form of direct democracy. from a purely democratic perspective, direct democracy in pennsylvania would be the product of work on behalf of people usually shut out of the legislative process. special interests have far too much influence in the legislature today, with money for campaign donations dictating the policy positions of elected officials. furthermore, direct democracy creates more informed citizens on policy issues. to prepare for voting, citizens must learn the ins and outs of various proposals. additionally, direct democracy ensures that the will of the people is being exercised even if their elected representatives cannot or will not enact legislation to carry it out. for example, while gerrymandering directly affects the legislative process and which party controls the agenda, enacting legislation by popular vote would override the role of partisanship when drawing legislative boundaries. no one of the fundamental tenets of american government is democratic rule by the people. belief that citizens should consent to the laws that govern them is at the core of this belief. pennsylvania government, like the national government, was constructed around the principle of representative democracy. most of us do not have the time, or, frankly, the knowledge, to examine complex issues of public policy. to solve this problem we elect politicians to do our work for us. they examine issues through hearings and research, deliberate on the consequences of policy options, and then make decisions. we then hold them accountable for the full body of their work when they run for reelection. adopting direct democracy in pennsylvania sounds like a great idea because it would give more “power to the people.” however, in practice it would have numerous negative effects on the commonwealth. initiatives or referendums are passed when 50.1 percent of the voters approve a measure. what about the opinions of the remaining 49.9 percent? they get nothing. representative democracy allows for compromise to make sure that multiple points of view are part of the policy-making process. direct democracy also promotes making decisions on individual issues without thinking about their effect on the whole scope of what government does. everyone wants lower taxes and more services. however, legislators and the governor are forced to think about the entire package of services provided to pennsylvania and pass a balanced budget. direct democracy doesn’t force voters to link all of these issues together. the last, and probably worst, effect of direct democracy is to allow special interests one more vehicle to push their own interests. well-funded groups, often from out of state, have successfully funded direct democracy campaigns in many states. do we really want that in pennsylvania? for more information initiative and referendum institute (http://www.iandrinstitute.org/index .cfm) is located at the university of southern california. the institute is a nonpartisan educational organization dedicated to the study of the initiative and referendum. national conference of state legislatures (http://www.ncsl.org/research/ elections-and-campaigns/initiative-referendum-and-recall-overview .aspx) provides a useful overview of the process of direct democracy in the united states. ncsl also tracks initiatives and referendums through a database, at http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/ initiative-referendum-database-2014.aspx. democratic delusions: the initiative process in america (lawrence: university press of kansas, 2002), by richard ellis, explores the role of money and outside interests in what he calls the initiative industrial complex. from pennsylvania politics and policy: a commonwealth reader, volume 1. edited by michelle j. atherton and j. wesley leckrone (philadelphia, temple university press, 2018). mrmuc text box commonwealth forum commonwealth, volume 19, issue 1 (2017). © 2017 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/com.v19i1.136. all rights reserved. commonwealth forum the politics of science or the science of politics john arway pennsylvania fish and boat commission when i first became executive director of the pennsylvania fish and boat commission (pfbc) in 2010, a friend of mine, who was a member of the pennsylvania general assembly at the time, told me that i had just become a politician. i immediately took exception to his comment, which began an interesting debate about politics and science. i learned that anyone who uses his or her position to influence public policy decisions is a politician. reluctantly, i had to admit that i just might have become a politician, since influencing public policy was the very reason i applied for the director position in the first place. i felt somewhat more comfortable with the new title of “politician” after consulting my principal online research tool, wikipedia.com, and finding that some politicians are actually experienced in the art or science of government. after all, as a fisheries biologist who had practiced the profession for over 30 years, i certainly had the training to command the science of government. how hard could it be to learn the art of government? little did i know! our debate turned next to the discussion of partisanship. he advised that i take a bipartisan approach to finding common ground for the issues that i would be advocating. however, the more i thought about it, the more i realized that i wouldn’t be just dealing with the two political parties in our legislature. now as director of a public service agency, i had just accepted the 100 john arway responsibility of administering the programs and directing staff to protect, conserve, and enhance our commonwealth’s aquatic resources and provide fishing and boating opportunities—the very mission of the pfbc. this resource first philosophy would require me to work with a diverse group of people to fulfill the mission. wilson (1887) noted that the political controlled the administrative. but popular will and efficient administration could be subverted if politics became too partisan. waldo (1980) suggested that “no problem is more central to public administration than . . . the relationship of politics and administration.” wilson (1887) further noted that democratic politics could benefit from politically neutral public service only under the constraints of political responsibility and the scientific method (rabin and bowman 1984). properly applying the scientific method and telling the truth have been key factors for my success, so the path i chose seemed to be the right one at the right time (arway 2010). the scientific method is defined as the “principles and procedures for the systematic pursuit of knowledge involving the recognition and formulation of a problem, the collection of data through observation and experiment, and the formulation and testing of hypotheses” (merriamwebster 2016). use of the scientific method is the bond that unifies scientists in all professions. it is often ironic to hear nonscientists say, “we will follow the science” as they discuss public policy decisions when, more often than not, it is not the science that prevails in public policy or political debates. frequently, political, social and economic variables dominate the discussion while science takes a backseat in decisionmaking (arway 2011). however, can the scientific method also be used in political science? the elements include observation, gathering facts, and testing hypotheses through repeated experimentation to produce a set of results with a certain level of confidence that can be replicated. i have often found myself following all of the steps but becoming frustrated with the repeatability test, especially with different administrations and legislative agendas. might that explain the wide variance associated with the results? my greatest leadership challenge has been to find a way to inform and engage the public in public policy discussions (arway 2015). “the public” may appear to be a third party to some, but anglers, boaters, and conservationists fluctuate from supporter to critic depending upon the issue. the 2010 u.s. census estimated that we have over 12.7 million people in the commonwealth, which include 1.2 million anglers (u.s. department of the interior 2006) and 3 million boaters (u.s. coast guard 2012). i concluded that in order to be effective in my role as a public administrator, i needed to be an “apolitical” politician. commonwealth forum 101 for much of my early career as a pfbc fisheries biologist, i believed that i was going to change the world by producing good science. i learned, after many hours of testifying as an expert witness in administrative, civil, and criminal courts, that judges never expect absolute certainty (100%) but only an opinion to “a reasonable degree of scientific certainty.” that perspective quickly changed when i became involved in public policy and regulatory decisions. yes, i discovered that our laws require and our courts apply far more subjective standards of proof. in civil courts, the standard of proof is “preponderance of evidence” (more likely than not). although the standard of proof is much greater in criminal courts—“beyond a reasonable doubt” (no reason to believe otherwise), it’s a much lower standard than scientists hold for ourselves with our own experiments. what standard of proof is used for political science decisions? the past on march 30, 2016, the pennsylvania fish and boat commission (pfbc) commemorated the 150th anniversary of our founding in 1866. a convention was held in harrisburg in 1866 to investigate water pollution being caused by the logging of pennsylvania’s forests and serious concerns about the reduction of american shad1 runs in the susquehanna river. this discussion resulted in governor andrew curtin signing the law, act of march 30, 1866 (p.l. 370, no. 336), that named james worrall as pennsylvania’s first commissioner of fisheries. in 1925, act 1925263 established the board of fish commissioners. then, in 1949, act 1949180 officially established the pennsylvania fish commission (pfc) as an agency and described its powers and duties. in 1949, the commission appointed charles a. french as its first executive director, and in 1991, under act 199139, the pennsylvania fish commission (pfc) became the pfbc. this makes the pfbc the second oldest fish or wildlife agency in the nation. throughout its history, the commission has evolved from a oneman operation funded solely by the general fund to an agency with a complement of 432 staff funded by anglers and boaters through license and registration fees and the federal excise taxes on fishing and boating equipment. the agency’s mission has broadened some from the original one, but even today it is still focused on protecting, conserving, and enhancing our aquatic resources and providing fishing and boating opportunities. the commission was originally created to solve the problems caused by dams blocking the free 102 john arway migration of american shad in the susquehanna river and water pollution from logging filling our streams and rivers with sediment. i would now like to report on the progress we have made and the challenges that still lie ahead. susquehanna river dams in 1867, the first fishway was constructed at the columbia (wrightsville) dam (built in 1840) on the susquehanna river as the first attempt to restore anadromous fish runs to the susquehanna river. then, came the york haven (1904), holtwood (1910), conowingo (1929), and safe harbor (1931) hydroelectric dams, which have been major impediments to migratory fish since they were built. in the 1950s, the resource agencies implemented a program to restore access for migratory fish to the upper susquehanna river basin, focusing on american shad. in response to harvest declines that signaled critically low fishstock levels, fishing for american shad in the chesapeake bay region was closed by maryland in 1980 and then by virginia in 1994. former pfc executive director ralph w. abele (1972–1987) fought passionately to have fish passage installed at these dams and built a shad hatchery at van dyke along the juniata river to assist the restoration process. in a landmark case in 1980, the fish commission intervened in an appeal involving multiple applications for hydroelectric project license renewals before the federal energy regulatory commission (ferc) for the continued operation of dams on the lower susquehanna river. the appeal resulted in the negotiation of license conditions to mitigate natural resource and recreational impacts of the projects, most notably the negative impact on the migration of american shad up and down river. the ultimate settlement included license conditions for all dams that required the construction of fish passage facilities in consultation with regulatory and natural resource agencies (ferc decisions 1980). we continue to fall short of our migratory fish restoration goals of two million american shad and five million river herring spawning upstream of the york haven dam. the american shad stock in the susquehanna river improved slowly and made an impressive comeback by 2001, when more than 200,000 adult shad were counted at the conowingo dam fish lifts. recent numbers of american shad passing the four major downriver dams reveal only 43 american shad passing york haven dam in 2015. in 2010, the susquehanna river anadromous fish restoration cooperative (srafrc) identified poor efficiency of fish passage measures and facilities, low hatchery production in recent years, low numbers of spawning fish accessing quality habitat, commonwealth forum 103 poor youngofyear recruitment upstream of conowingo dam, ocean and chesapeake bay mortality, turbine mortality, and predation as the major causes of this decline (srafrc 2010). the current plan calls for a naturelike fishway to be constructed by 2021 on the east side of york haven dam adjacent to three mile island. improvements in downstream passage rates of outmigrating american shad and american eels are also required. since the safe harbor dam currently has the most effective fishway on the east coast for american shad passage (~78%), no future changes are anticipated. the redevelopment project at holtwood dam provides increased power generation capacity and greater control of river flows, which allows more directed flows and passage routes to lead fish to the fish lifts. the muddy run pumped storage project is required to trap and provide upstream transport of up to one million american eels per year. the ferc license for the conowingo dam in maryland is on an annual renewal, since the maryland natural resource agencies continue to work with the licensee on sediment accumulation and mitigation issues on the conowingo pool. the u.s. fish and wildlife service (fws) reached an agreement with exelon in may 2016 on improvements to the existing east lift fishways, including adding hoppers to increase lift volume and reduce lift cycle time as well as significant improvements to the west lift. exelon is also required to fund trap and upstream transfer of up to 100,000 american shad and 100,000 river herring annually and to develop efficient upstream trap and transfer facilities for american eels. when maryland resolves its issues, a 401 water quality certification and then the ferc license will be completed to finalize the license renewal process. the original charter of the pfc was to restore american shad to the susquehanna river. we began with the initial challenge to pass shad around a small dam at wrightsville with a fish ladder in 1867. our past leaders had been diligent in working in the legal, policy, and political arenas with limited success. the future of the american shad restoration in the susquehanna river is now fully dependent upon the ability of this and future generations working together to provide effective fish passage and not accept that the existing dams have become part of the river environment—the new normal. we hope not to forget about the importance and historical significance of the shad fishery and yield to the whims of societal demands for power. i am confident that science, engineering, and the continued public demand for shad will prevail, since the shad and our forefathers are counting on us and future generations. there is still work to be done if we ever expect to fulfill the dream 104 john arway of seeing a fishable population of american shad return to the pennsylvania portion of the susquehanna river. recently over one million manmade dams around the world have been determined to be major sources of global greenhouse gases emitting nearly a gigaton, a billion tons, of annual carbon dioxide equivalents. this includes methane (79%), carbon dioxide (17%) and nitrous oxide (4%) (liess, et al. 2016). the authors note that the study will provide policy makers and the public necessary information about other consequences of damming rivers. water pollution the early challenges of preventing sedimentation of our streams, rivers, and lakes from the land disturbances caused by the timber industry continued throughout the entire twentieth century with the growing problems of water pollution caused by the american industrial revolution (wolensky 2016). in 1901, a law (section 26 of act of may 25, 1901 (p.l. 302, no. 203)) went into effect that prohibited placing poisonous substances in any waters. and, in 1909, another law was passed forbidding the emptying into any waters of the commonwealth any waste deleterious to fish. these two laws historically established the pfbc as one of the oldest water pollution enforcement agencies not only in pennsylvania but also in the entire nation. over the course of my 36-y ear career with the pfbc, i have seen dramatic changes in the quality of our commonwealth’s streams, rivers, and lakes. although we inherited miles of polluted waters from our forefathers, i am pleased to say that the changes have been for the better in many ways. i don’t hold those before us accountable for these polluted waters, nor should you. they lived in different times by different means. they survived off the resources provided to them by the land—for food, drink, and employment. the industrial revolution required them to log our forests, mine our coal, drill for our oil and natural gas, harness the power of our rivers for electricity, aggressively farm our fields, and work in factories to produce the food and energy that our society demanded. the laws that did exist did not protect our rivers and streams because we needed those goods and services to see us through the great depression, two world wars, and several conflicts. that was their legacy, and it was about making america strong for us—the future generation (arway 2010a). what will our legacy be? the people in public referendum ratified article 1, section 27, also known as the environmental rights amendment, on may 18, 1971, by a four to one margin. i was in undergraduate school at the time, still trying to determine what i wanted to do in life, and can clearly remember voting for this commonwealth forum 105 amendment. in the voting booth, it resonated with my personal philosophy about public rights and trust in government and still does today (arway 2014). article 1, section 27 of the pennsylvania constitution the people have a right to clean air, pure water, and to the preservation of the natural, scenic, historic and esthetic values of the environment. pennsylvania’s public natural resources are the common property of all the people, including generations yet to come. as trustee of these resources, the commonwealth shall conserve and maintain them for the benefit of all the people. even today, who among us could disagree with these basic principles? many believe that article 1 is the most important part of the pennsylvania constitution, since it contains the declaration of rights as inherent rights of mankind that include the right to enjoy and defend life and liberty, to reform, alter or abolish government, free elections, a speedy trial by jury, freedom of speech, bear arms . . . and the right to a clean environment (pa. const. art.1). these are natural, inherent, and inalienable rights that were established by our forefathers and endorsed by the people of pennsylvania. on december 19, 2013, the supreme court of pennsylvania issued an opinion that held certain parts of our new oil and gas act (act 13 of 2012) unconstitutional (robinson township v. commonwealth of pennsylvania). although i am a biologist and not a lawyer, i have spent many hours in court and on the witness stand as an expert witness defending the environmental rights of our people to aquatic resources. my primary interest in studying the decision focused on the opinion of the three justices who explained their concerns about how the law was inconsistent with article 1, section 27. although the joint opinion of three justices out of seven doesn’t qualify for a majority opinion, i am told that it does meet the definition of a plurality, which is significant especially when the chief justice agrees. the first clause of section 27 deals with individual environmental rights and requires all branches of government to consider the “effect of any proposed action on the constitutionally protected features.” furthermore, “the right to “clean air” and “pure water” sets plain conditions by which government must abide.” here they cite dernbach 1999, who wrote “the measure of our progress is not just what we have but how we live, that it is not man who must adapt himself to technology but technology which must be adapted to man.” the second and third clauses of section 27 involve the public trust and reserve the public’s right to the common ownership of pennsylvania’s public 106 john arway natural resources, including generations yet to come. these resources frequently include resources of public interest such as “ambient air, surface and ground water, wild flora, and fauna (including fish),” since the drafters intended “to capture the full array of resources implicating the public interest, as these may be defined by statute or at common law.” the third clause of section 27 establishes the commonwealth’s duties consistent with the public trust doctrine and “designates ‘the commonwealth’ as trustee and the people as the named beneficiaries.” this clause is our insurance policy, sotospeak, to ensure that our air stays safe to breathe, our water remains safe to drink, and our natural resources continue to be protected for ourselves and future generations. the court reminded us that those “duties and powers attendant to the trust are not vested exclusively in any single branch of pennsylvania’s government.” as executive director of the pfbc, i am now very proud to be able to be part of the government that upholds this constitutional obligation. the court’s plurality opinion goes on to remind us about various environmental events that led to the decision to place our environmental rights on par with our political rights. deforestation of our landscape in the late 1800s and early 1900s filled our streams with sediment and left behind “thousands of acres of devastated treeless acres” devoid of game and wildlife. then, came the “industrial exploitation of pennsylvania’s coalfields,” which fueled our steel mills along our major rivers. this industrial revolution left us with over 2,500 miles of streams polluted by acid mine drainage and rivers that would not freeze over in the winter because of a mixture of chemical antifreeze and thermal pollution. our generation began the cleanup of our air and water, which led to the partial recovery of our natural resources. we can thank a variety of state and federal laws and regulations that placed necessary controls on industries that posed risk to our environment. the pfbc’s mandate and philosophy has been consistent through its history since 1866: “to protect, conserve, and enhance.” this philosophy was best exemplified by former executive director ralph abele’s philosophy of “resource first.” abele charged the agency’s staff with conserving pennsylvania’s aquatic resources. the best interests of the resource(s) were—and are—to be placed first. it wasn’t just his slogan. it was a way of life that permeated the agency and still does today (wolensky 2016). during the early 1980s a coal operator could travel to harrisburg and be back home mining coal the very same day. however, under abele’s leadership, we were told to do our duty and fear no one when we applied the new science of risk analysis to every permit application we reviewed. abele would personally sign each permit application review and include a copy of article commonwealth forum 107 1, section 27, in our agency comments to the department of environmental resources (der). as a result of abele’s diligence, dr. maurice (doc) goddard called the pfbc the environmental conscience of his pennsylvania department of environmental resources (pader). doc and ralph were friends and colleagues, and they appreciated each other’s support when it came to protecting our streams and our fish. over the next several decades, the commission used the authority and autonomy of an independent administrative agency of state government to carefully appeal permits issued by the pader and the pennsylvania department of environmental protection (padep). the permits were deemed unprotective of our commonwealth’s water quality and aquatic resources. this proactive approach to pollution prevention helped keep thousands of miles of commonwealth waters from being added to the commonwealth’s list of impaired waters. some examples follow: the commission provided expert testimony to support pader’s denial of a surface mining permit that would have led to the degradation of silver creek, in butler county (big “b” mining co. 1983). the commission appealed pader’s issuance of a surface mining permit, and a new permit was negotiated that provided better protection of iser’s run, somerset county (pfc 1984). the commission successfully appealed pader’s issuance of a surface mining permit to prevent an encroachment of campbell run, clearfield county (pfc 1986). the commission intervened in the city of harrisburg’s appeal of pader’s denial of water quality certification. the city proposed to increase the height of the dock street dam on the susquehanna river and add a hydroelectric facility (city of harrisburg 1988). the commission appealed pader’s issuance of a coal refuse disposal permit, and unfortunately the appeal was dismissed as untimely. the coal company filed bankruptcy years later, and the commonwealth inherited another stream polluted by acid mine drainage (pfc 1989). the commission intervened and supported the padep’s suspension and revocation of various permits on the basis that affected wetlands were of exceptional value because they were located in or along the floodplain of the reach of a wild trout stream in elk county (eagle environmental 1996). seeking to protect rare mussel and fish species, the commission appealed padep’s issuance of encroachment permits to sand and gravel dredgers on the allegheny river (pfbc 2004; hanson aggregate 2006). the commission appealed padep’s issuance of an npdes permit for a power plant at shawville, clearfield county. parties ultimately reached a settlement agreement that replaced dep’s original permit thermal limits with the more protective limits and required the power company to contribute a total of $300,000 to the commission for mitigation (pfbc 2010). 108 john arway in addition to being active and successful in challenging permit actions by state and federal regulatory agencies to defend the interests of our commonwealth’s aquatic resources, commission staff also actively participate in environmental regulation and policy development. the pfbc executive director is a voting member of the environmental quality board, and pfbc staff participated on a variety of pader and padep committees and work groups involving water quality and quantity across a range of regulatory programs, including coal and noncoal mining, oil and gas, municipal, residual and hazardous wastes, stream and wetland encroachments, and water quality standards. in 1969, the commission created the wilderness trout stream (wts) program and added 75 streams in 1972. today, 105 stream sections are included in the program, which qualify them for a 25 pa. code chapter 93 exceptional value (ev) special protected wateruse classification. ev represents the highest water quality protection status provided by the commonwealth (see 25 pa. code chapter 93, pennsylvania code 2017). the commission received authority from the pennsylvania general assembly for regulating reptiles, amphibians, and aquatic organisms and for listing rare species as state threatened and endangered (t&e) in 1974. this authority closely followed the passage of the federal endangered species act of 1973 (16 u.s.c. 1531–1544, 87 stat. 884). wetlands that serve as habitat for pfbclisted t&e species qualify for exceptional value wetlands protection under 25 pa. code chapter 105.17(1)(i). the commission adopted operation future (fisheries utilization through user resource evaluation) in 1981, and as explained by former director ralph abele, “this marks a formally declared shift in the philosophy and mission of the pennsylvania fish commission from recreation first to resource first. this truly makes the pennsylvania fish commission a conservation agency.” resource first was adopted by the board of commissioners as an agency motto in 1987 and then as an operation philosophy in 2008. operation future created a hierarchical classification system for the commonwealth’s trout streams. pfbc-de signated class a trout streams qualify for special protection in 25 pa. code chapter 93 as high quality coldwater fisheries, and all other designated trout streams trigger ev wetland protection for “wetlands located in or along the floodplain of a wild trout stream” (see 25 pa. code chapter 105 (1)(iii), pennsylvania code 2017). the late mr. hank ingram, a tenured environmental attorney representing the interests of the coal industry, sand and gravel dredgers, and the pennsylvania landowners association, recognized the commission as the “most powerful environmental agency in pennsylvania.” he further noted, commonwealth forum 109 “the fish commission is a powerful, influential and well-f unded bureaucracy which advocates and implements its policies skillfully and aggressively, seemingly independent of external control.” (ingram, circa 1980s). although mr. ingram’s comments were meant to be critical, they reflected positively on the commission within the ranks of conservationists and revealed that the commission cares greatly about the fate of our aquatic resources and understands their value. water pollution enforcement has been a top agency priority since the agency received its water pollution enforcement authority in 1901. the commission’s “thin green line” began as fish wardens or water bailiffs who were first appointed in 1879 and were assigned to stock fish and enforce the law. they were retitled waterways patrolmen in 1968, and in 1980 the fish and boat code recodified and provided limited police powers to waterways patrolmen. act 198466 changed the name of waterways patrolman to waterways conservation officers (wcos). a peak law enforcement workforce occurred in 1995 with 106 wcos and 340 deputy wcos (dwcos). today there are 86 commissioned officers and 78 dwcos. violations of 30 pa.c.s.a. title 30 (fish and boat code) § 2504, pollution of waters, and § 2502 disturbance of waterways and watersheds are third degree misdemeanors punishable by a fine of not less than $250 nor more than $5,000, or imprisonment not exceeding 90 days, or both. additional fines may be assessed of not less than $20 nor more than $50 for each fish killed (§ 923 (b)). additional civil damages may be recovered, under 30 pa.c.s.a.§ 2506 commonwealth actions for damage to fish, for the commercial resale value, the replacement costs or the recreational value of angling for the fish killed. although commission officers have been actively enforcing water pollution law for over 100 years, commission files are lacking early reports; however, the following major cases can be reported from over the past 30 years: clinton county court ordered fran contracting, inc., to make restitution to the commission in the amount of $5,555,840 for estimated costs of abatement of pollution in cooks run, clinton county. unfortunately, the defendant went bankrupt, the commission was unable to collect and cooks run remains polluted today (com. of pa v. fran contracting, inc. 1983). the commission intervened in an action brought by the federal government and recovered natural resource damages in the form of lost recreational fishing use at valley creek, chester county, stemming from high levels of pcbs and other toxic residues originating from paoli rail yard superfund site (usa v. amtrak, conrail and septa 1986). approximately 700,000 gallons of diesel fuel were spilled into the monongahela and ohio rivers. the commission, 110 john arway recovered natural resource damages of $250,000 and a joint recovery with pader of $1.75 million that was used to conduct a recreational use survey and an aquatic habitat characterization study of the three rivers (ashland oil inc. 1988). in connection with the release of pcbs associated with an interstate natural gas pipeline project, texas eastern gas pipeline company paid the commission $1.25 million, in settlement for natural resource damages, to assess the impact of pcbs and other substances of concern on aquatic biota with respect to certain compressor station sites in southcentral pennsylvania (pader v. texas eastern transmission corporation 1988). commission experts testified and provided evidence in an action brought by the federal government over pennzoil exploration and production co.’s discharge of brine into waters of the commonwealth in northwestern pennsylvania. the company agreed to pay in excess of $1 million in damages, and $150,000 was used for stream and lake habitat improvement projects in mckean county (usa v. pennzoil exploration and production co. 1989). the commission, and other federal and state trustees, settled its respective oil pollution act and other natural resource damage claims arising out of an oil spill into the delaware river from the tank vessel m/t kentucky (ashland petroleum company 1994). the commission, along with other federal and state trustees, settled its respective oil pollution act and other natural resource damage claims arising out of an oil spill into delaware river at the coastal eagle point refinery (jahre spray/coastal eagle point oil company 1995). as a result of the company’s 1990 release of petroleum products from a pipeline break into knapp run and the allegheny river, the commission recovered $300,000 as compensation for natural resource damages and costs of natural resource restoration (pader v. buckeye pipe line company, lp. 1995). following a train derailment in westmoreland county in 1989, which resulted in corn syrup spilling into the youghiogheny river and killing approximately 10,000 fish, westmoreland county district attorney’s office, at the commission’s request, filed a criminal complaint charging csx with violating the pollution provision of the fish and boat code. the superior court ultimately upheld the constitutionality of the statute’s penalty provision, imposing an additional fine of $10 per fish killed in violation of the pollution provision (commonwealth of pennsylvania v. csx transportation, inc.1995). the commission, along with other federal and state trustees, recovered $21.4 million in natural resource damages resulting from decades of zinc smelting operations at the palmerton zinc pile superfund site in northeastern pennsylvania (usa v. horsehead industries, inc. 1998). the commission, along with other federal and state trustees, recovered natural resource damages from the u.s. coast guard oil spill liability trust commonwealth forum 111 fund for an oil spill on the delaware river (athos i. 2004). following the derailment of a train operated by norfolk southern in mckean county, which resulted in sodium hydroxide spilling into big fill run and causing damage to the aquatic natural resources of sinnemahoningportage creek and the driftwood branch of sinnemahoning creek, the commission reached a settlement and received $3.582 million as restitution for natural resource damages (norfolk southern corporation 2006). the commission sued consol energy, inc. and reached a $2.5 million settlement for civil damages resulting from the 2009 pollution incident in which discharges from a coal mine entered dunkard creek, greene county, contributing to a massive fish kill spanning nearly 30 miles of stream in west virginia and pennsylvania (pfbc v. consol energy, inc. 2011). the commission has been diligent and judicious in applying its authority to protect our streams and our fish as well as punishing those who violate the law and damage our aquatic natural resources, which are the common property of all the people. susquehanna river impairment an impaired waterbody is “any waterbody of the united states that does not attain water quality standards (as defined in 40 cfr part 131) due to an individual pollutant, multiple pollutants, pollution, or an unknown cause of impairment.” (u.s. environmental protection agency 2016). the clean water act, as amended, 33 u.s.c. 1251 et seq. further requires under subsection 303(d) of the act that: (1)(a) each state shall identify those waters within its boundaries for which the effluent limitations required by section 301(b)(1)(a) and section 301(b)(1)(b) of this act are not stringent enough to implement any water quality standard applicable to such waters. the state shall establish a priority ranking for such waters, taking into account the severity of the pollution and the uses to be made of such waters. the term “303(d) list” contains a state’s list of impaired and threatened waters. states are required to submit their list for environmental protection agency (epa) approval every two years. for each water on the list, the state identifies the pollutant causing the impairment, when known. in addition, the state assigns a priority for development of total maximum daily loads (tmdl), a plan designed to abate the sources and causes of impairment (40 c.f.r. §130.7(b)(4)). 112 john arway pennsylvania’s 303(d) lists are due to be submitted to the u.s. epa by april 1 of every even numbered year. however, pennsylvania’s draft report was sent out for public comment on august 1 and the deadline for comments was september 12. the final report must be submitted to u.s. epa region 3 for review. within 30 days after receipt, epa can approve, disapprove, or conditionally approve the state’s list. if epa partially approves and partially disapproves a list because some waters have been omitted, it must act within 30 days to add these waters to the state’s list. lesions and sores caused by bacterial infections appeared in 2005 on youngofyear (yoy) smallmouth bass and produced a massive fish kill that still affects the fishery today. the average catch rate of adult smallmouth bass is only 20% of what it was prior to 2005. yoy smallmouth bass catch rates are 1/3 of what they were prior to 2002. adult bass have been found with cancerous tumors, open sores, and lesions. black spots that aren’t understood (blotchy bass syndrome or melanosis), as well as high rates of intersex conditions (male bass with egg precursors and hormones, which should be found only in female bass) caused by exposure to endocrine disrupting chemicals (edcs) now occur. these chemicals are coming from sewage treatment plant outfalls and other anthropogenic sources. unprecedented algae blooms fueled by excessive dissolved phosphorus, along with low dissolved oxygen and high ph conditions are all factors in this complicated problem. a team of scientists from a variety of state and federal agencies as well as academia came together in 2015 to “identify the causes of smallmouth bass declines on the susquehanna river.” they analyzed complex sets of environmental data to input into a u.s. environmental protection agency (epa) modeling tool called caddis (causal analysis/diagnosis decision information system). they concluded, based on known evidence, that endocrine disrupting chemicals (edcs) and herbicides along with pathogens and parasites and other stressors were likely causes of the disease (shull and pulket 2015). in a recent article, i discuss the facts that we know about herbicides and endocrine disrupting chemicals and why we need to begin taking action (arway 2016). i also discuss the challenges controlling nutrients, since pennsylvania contributes the majority of nutrients and sediments that are delivered to the chesapeake bay by the waters of the susquehanna river. dissolved phosphorus has been widely accepted as the ratelimiting nutrient that controls algae blooms in flowing waters. therefore, it continues to make sense that we create and implement a plan (total maximum daily load) to protect the bay, the river, and our bass. the dissolved phosphorus dilemma of the susquehanna river and chesapeake bay is a national problem identified by epa in their national rivers and commonwealth forum 113 streams assessment report (u.s. environmental protection agency 2013). a key finding of the report is “forty percent of the nation’s river and stream length has high levels of phosphorus.” it concludes, “our rivers and streams are under significant stress and more than half exhibit poor biological condition.” staff from the pfbc mined the dataset used in the national report and found data from the only four sites sampled on the susquehanna river that rated poor for total phosphorus and fish metrics. in a may 2016 news release, the pennsylvania department of agriculture proudly announced that “pennsylvania is the third largest eggproducing state in the nation, with an average of 23.9 million hens producing more than 7 billion eggs each year.” should it not follow that pennsylvania is the third largest poultry litter producing state in the nation? it might be time to start thinking more about whether we are properly disposing our animal manure or over treating our soils. on july 28, 2014, in a letter i wrote to mr. shawn garvin, regional administrator of the u.s. epa region 3 office, i observed that “a review of data produced by the united states department of agriculture’s national agriculture statistics service shows that the acres of cropland and pastureland treated with manure ha[ve] increased 1.5 percent from 2007 through 2012 despite the fact that there are over 1,000 less farms spreading manure. over 13 percent (3.9 million acres) of pennsylvania’s land surface (28.6 million acres) was treated with manure and/or commercial fertilizer in 2012. it is easy to see that the concentration of these applications is greatest in the susquehanna river basin.” caddis results were reported to the padep which independently decided that there is still not enough information to list the susquehanna river as an impaired water (padep 2016). padep staff will continue to collect and evaluate data to make a “final” decision in their 2018 integrated report. the importance of this decision is critical to the fate of the smallmouth bass in the susquehanna river. it is also integrally related to the commonwealth’s responsibility to meet the cleanup goals for the chesapeake bay. we know what the problems are, but do we care enough to fix them? when appointed pfbc executive director, i agreed to take on public policy issues that address our public rights for clean air, pure water, and the preservation of the natural, scenic, historic, and esthetic values of our environment guaranteed to all of us by article 1, section 27, of our state constitution. when i took my oath of office, i welcomed my professional responsibility to uphold the constitution and fulfill my duty as trustee of our public natural resources and to conserve and maintain them for the benefit of all the people. they are, after all, the common property of all the people, including generations yet to come. as an advocate for the smallmouth bass that continue to be 114 john arway impacted by a variety of environmental stressors, i thought that, as an agency, we did all that we could do when our board enacted the catch and release regulations and closed bass season from may 1 through june 12 to protect the adult bass and their developing fry. i was wrong. we can and should do more as the public service agency responsible for protecting, conserving, and enhancing our commonwealth’s aquatic resources and providing fishing and boating opportunities. we created our save our susquehanna (sos) campaign. the campaign asks all pennsylvanians to either buy a fishing license or donate through our sos first giving fundraising site to help begin fixing the river’s problems. over the past year, we have received over $50,000 in public donations, which we matched with $50,000 in pfbc funds. these funds were used to complete a watershed restoration project on limestone run, northumberland and montour counties. significant reductions in sediment and nutrients to the susquehanna river were accomplished and native brook trout were transferred into the restored stream habitat. the appearance of a single cancerous tumor on a smallmouth bass caught from the susquehanna on election day in 2014 took this story viral and changed it from a fishing and science story to a public policy story. you can imagine the questions that were being posed on discussion boards all across the country about what caused this tumor to occur and what other problems, both aquatic and human health, it may indicate? these known facts should serve as the basis for identifying solutions that can be used to reduce and repair the harm we have done to our land, water, and public natural resources. i previously explained that scientists are taught to follow the scientific method, which requires repeated experimentation to minimize the uncertainty with the results. i also understand the more subjective standards of proof required by the law and used by our courts for their decisions. so, what standard of proof should be used to judge the fate and future of the remaining bass in the susquehanna river? five different padep secretaries, spanning three separate administrations, have said, “we will follow the science for this decision.” in this case, i believe that the trier of the facts should use the certainty of the information we have collected rather than focus on the uncertainty of the information we have yet to collect. our scientists have been collecting information for over 11 years and will continue to collect information into the future. that is their job. it’s time for policy makers to become brave enough to not “fear the known” or the results of their own decisions. we need to make this critical public policy decision involving the impairment of the river using a rational standard of proof based upon known facts. commonwealth forum 115 the longer we delay the decision, the more probable that the harm will continue due to our fear of the unknown. so, which fear will determine the fate of our bass? fear of the known, resulting in action, or fear of the unknown and inaction? i will continue to advocate for urgent action. our bass depend on it, our anglers expect it, and our constitution requires it. the future pennsylvania has 86,000 miles of streams and rivers, nearly 4,000 lakes and reservoirs, more than 404,000 acres of wetlands, and 63 miles of lake erie shoreline, which are home to more than 25,000 species of known plants and animals, and perhaps, many thousands more yet to be identified. these facts demonstrate the enormity and complexity of the challenges that we all face as public servants as we strive to fulfill our statutory, regulatory, and constitutional duties to protect our environmental rights. more than 150 species of plants and animals have been lost from pennsylvania, and 664 others are species of greatest conservation need and are detailed in our commonwealth’s state wildlife action plan: “90 birds, 19 mammals, 65 fish, 22 reptiles, 18 amphibians and 450 invertebrates. the major threats to their continued existence have been identified as residential and commercial development (15 percent), energy production and mining (13 percent), pollution (13 percent), invasive and other problematic species, and genes and diseases (12 percent).” we currently have a population of 12,763,536 people, which continues to increase on a fixed amount of land, 45,333 square miles. as of 2015, 83,438 miles of streams and rivers, out of a total of 86,000 miles, have been assessed by padep staff for aquatic life use support. approximately 19% (15,882 miles) do not fully support healthy aquatic communities. furthermore, some of these waters are still not fishable or swimmable. we have the nation’s sixteenth largest river, the susquehanna river, which drains nearly half of pennsylvania’s land area and has been identified as a major contributor to the impairment of the chesapeake bay. we also know that 15,882 miles of our streams and rivers and 37,761 acres of our lakes are not attaining their aquatic life uses because of the current and legacy impacts from agriculture and coal mining creating siltation, metals, nutrients, and organic enrichment of our waters (padep 2016). i believe that our future is bright but not without challenges. we have made substantial progress over the last generation by cleaning up our waters so that we can now say that we have more waters to fish today than when we were children. however, yesterday’s challenges were simple compared to the environmental and natural resource challenges that we face in the future. 116 john arway today’s challenges include cancerous tumors, bacterial infections, black spot, and intersex in smallmouth bass in the susquehanna river; rapidly expanding deep natural gas development across pennsylvania and the uncertainties about fracking; native brook trout compromised by changing climate; aquatic invasive species (ais) outcompeting native species; lakes, rivers, and chesapeake bay clogged with nuisance algae blooms; fewer people, including our legislators, fishing, boating, and recreating outdoors; and our unfulfilled obligation to restore american shad to the mighty susquehanna river. our new challenges will no longer be at the local scale, thus requiring much different solutions at the watershed, regional, national, and even global scales. we will have to work across disciplines and use the appropriate science to diagnose problems. innovative engineering skills will have to be applied to develop solutions, and we must have the political will to create laws and provide funding for solutions. it won’t be easy, but i am confident that our next generation will have the knowledge, skills, abilities, and the guts to get it done right. there was a time in american history during the great depression in the 1930s when a technocracy was our society’s preferred form of governance (wikipedia 2016a, 2016b). it provided for people in positions of responsibility to be selected on the basis of their technical knowledge and involved applying the scientific method to solve social problems. technocrats are defined as individuals with technical training who perceive many important societal problems as being solvable. this is unlike our present bureaucratic system in which a group of nonelected government officials govern large institutions and enjoy managing information, processing records, and administering complex systems (clegg, harris, and hopfl 2011). the german sociologist max weber ([1922] 1978) explained that a bureaucratic form of government was necessary because more people create a more complex administrative system and supported the need of a bureaucracy as the most efficient form of an organization. he also warned that increasing bureaucratization can lead to a soulless “iron cage” of bureaucratic, rulebased, rational control. the most challenging part of my position has been the politics of science and trying to convince our scientists to become advocates for the science they produce. we have far too many data collectors who are well trained in the scientific method but unwilling to advocate for what it concludes. their reluctance is often explained by their desire to stay unbiased and many believe their role is to hand over their experimental data to others who will use it to further public policy positions. unfortunately, there are not sufficient numbers of technocrats in today’s society who understand how to translate the science for policy or political decisions and far too many bureaucrats who are commonwealth forum 117 concerned only about processing decisions based upon the letter of the law, regulation, or policy as defined by someone who preceded them. my other major challenge is with the science of politics and trying to explain the meaning and importance of the science so that politicians can apply it during the drafting of the laws that they promulgate. house bill 1576 was introduced in the general assembly several years ago, and it was intended to place additional legislative oversight on the process of listing plants and animals on the commonwealth’s threatened and endangered species lists, which fall within the statutory responsibilities of the pfbc, the pennsylvania game commission, and the pennsylvania department of conservation and natural resources. hb 1576 also included the designations of wild trout streams. these designations are sciencebased determinations based on whether a species is rare or whether a stream supports wild trout. the science based process was targeted to undergo a social/economic public interest test if promulgated. after many debates at public hearings across the commonwealth, the science arguments and the public will prevail due to widespread public outcry about politicizing a truly sciencebased decision. our future decisions will be far more complicated than those of our past and present. they will involve decisions about environmental and human health impacts that will test our political, social, economic, engineering, and science knowledge and require multidisciplinary cooperation. our scientists must understand the politics and our politicians and administrators must understand the science. we cannot afford to waste energy debating whether a river is impaired, the climate is changing, a species is rare or common or a stream supports wild trout. we need to begin rolling up our sleeves and working together, technocrats and bureaucrats, politicians on both sides of the aisle, in order to prepare for tomorrow’s challenges. the alternative could be weber’s prediction. note 1. the seventh edition of common and scientific names of fishes can be found at http://fisheries.org/books-journals/writing-tools/names-of-fishes-searchable-version/ and recommends capitalization of all common names of fish (e.g., american shad). references arway, john. 2010. “the right track.” pa angler and boater magazine, november/ december: 2. ———. 2010a. “a sense of responsibility.” pa angler and boater magazine, may/june. ———. 2011. “an executive decision.” pa angler and boater magazine, may/june: 4–5. ———. 2014. “article 1, section 27.” pa angler and boater magazine, may/june. 118 john arway ———. 2015. “the common man.” pa angler and boater magazine, january/february: 2–3. ———. 2016. “fear of the known.” pa angler and boater magazine, september/october. ashland oil inc. 1988. settlement agreement, pfbc files, harrisburg, pa. ashland petroleum company. 1994. settlement letter, pfbc files, harrisburg, pa. athos i. 2004. settlement of claim to oil spill liability trust fund, athos i oil spill incident, delaware river, pfbc files, harrisburg, pa. big “b” mining co. v. commonwealth of pennsylvania. 1983. pennsylvania department of environmental resources and trout unlimited, pennsylvania environmental hearing board (ehb) docket no. 83215g, harrisburg, pa. city of harrisburg v. pa der and pfbc, intervenor. 1988. ehb docket no. 88120-f , harrisburg, pa. clegg, stewart r., martin harris, and harro hopfl, eds. 2011. managing modernity: beyond bureaucracy? new york: oxford university press. commonwealth of pennsylvania v. csx transportation, inc. 1995. 653 a. 1327 pa. superior ct., harrisburg, pa. commonwealth of pennsylvania v. fran contracting, inc. 1983. no. 8083, b 1429595 (otn), court of common pleas, clinton co., pa. dernbach, john c. 1999. “taking the pennsylvania constitution seriously when it protects the environment: part i—an interpretive framework for article i, section 27, 103.” dickinson law review 693, 718–720 (1999); accord 1970 pa. legislative journal house at 2270. eagle environmental, l.p. v. pa dep, pfbc, jefferson county commissioners, jefferson county solid waste authority and clearfieldjefferson counties regional airport authority, intervenors. 1996. ehb docket no. 96215mg; ehb decision affirmed by commonwealth court in eagle environmental, l.p. v. department of environmental protection, no.2704 c.d. 1998, memorandum opinion dated october 19, 2001, harrisburg, pa. federal energy regulatory commission (ferc) id: p-405, conowingo dam, license issued 1980; ferc id: p-1025, safe harbor dam, license issued 1980; ferc id: p-1881, holtwood dam, license issued 1980 and 2015; ferc id: p-1888, york haven dam, license issued 1980 and 2015; ferc id: p-2355, muddy run pumped storage facility, license issued 1964 and 2015, washington d.c. hanson aggregate pma, inc., glacial sand and gravel company and tristate river products, inc. v. pa dep and pfbc, intervenor. 2006. ehb docket no. 2006175r (consolidated with 2006176r and 2006-1 77r), harrisburg, pa. ingram, henry. circa 1980s. “beware the fish commission.” pennsylvania landowners association newsletter. available at www.palandowners.org. accessed october 6, 2016. jahre spray/coastal eagle point oil company, coastal petroleum, n.v., coastal states trading, inc. and coastal offshore insurance limited. 1995. settlement agreement dated february 10, 1997, pfbc files, harrisburg, pa. liess, matthias, kaarina foit, saskia knillmann, ralf b. schäfer, and hansdieter liess. 2016. “predicting the synergy of multiple stress effects.” scientific reports 6: 32965. doi: 10.1038/srep32965. merriamwebster. 2016. “scientific method.” available at merriamwebster.com. accessed october 6, 2016. norfolk southern corporation and norfolk southern railway company. 2006. settlement agreement dated november 12, 2007, pfbc files, harrisburg, pa. commonwealth forum 119 pader v. buckeye pipe line company, lp. 1995. ehb docket no. 95010-c pr, harrisburg, pa. accessed march 21, 2017. pader v. texas eastern transmission corporation and texas eastern gas pipeline company. 1988. ehb docket nos. 88-9 0cpw, 88145w; 88146w and 88147-w , harrisburg, pa. pennsylvania code. 2017. available at http://www.pacode.com/. accessed march 21, 2017. pennsylvania constitution. 1971. article 1, section 2. available at http://www.legis.state .pa.us/wu01/li/li/ct/htm/00/00.htm. pennsylvania department of environmental protection (padep). 2016. 2016 draft pennsylvania integrated water quality monitoring and assessment report, clean water act section 305(b) report and 303(d) list, harrisburg, pa. accessed october 6, 2016. pfbc v. consol energy, inc. 2011. civil action no. 11c556, circuit court of monongalia county, west virginia, pfbc files, harrisburg, pa. pfbc v. pa dep and glacial sand and gravel company, pioneer midatlantic, inc. and the lane construction company. 2004. ehb docket no. 2004053-r (consolidated with 2004054r and 2004055r), harrisburg, pa. pfbc v. pa dep and rri energy mid-a tlantic power holdings llc. 2010. ehb docket no. 2010-153-m, harrisburg, pa. pfc and pa council of trout unlimited v. commonwealth of pennsylvania, pa der and action mining, inc. 1984. ehb docket no. 84397g, harrisburg, pa. pfc v. pa der and al hamilton contracting. 1986. ehb docket no. 86338w, harrisburg, pa. pfc v. pa der and doverspike brothers coal co. 1989. ehb docket no. 89369w, harrisburg, pa. rabin, jack, and james bowman, eds. 1984. politics and administration: woodrow wilson and american public administration. new york: marcel dekker, inc. shull, dustin, and molly pulket. 2015. “causal analysis of the smallmouth bass decline in the susquehanna and juniata rivers.” available at http://files.dep.state.pa.us/water/ drinking%20water%20and%20facility%20regulation/waterqualityportalfiles/ susquehannariverstudyupdates/smb_caddis_report.pdf. accessed october 6, 2016. srafrc. 2010. susquehanna river anadromous fish restoration cooperative (srafrc) migratory fish management and restoration plan for the susquehanna river basin, pfbc files, harrisburg, pa. united states of america v. amtrak, conrail and septa. 1986. civil action no. 861094, u.s. district ct. for eastern district of pennsylvania. united states of america v. horsehead industries, inc., horsehead resource development company, inc., viacom international inc., tci pacific communications, inc. 1998. civil action no. 3: cv980654, u.s. district ct. for middle district of pennsylvania. united states of america v. pennzoil exploration and production co. 1989. civil action no. 89-2 09, u.s. district ct. for western district of pennsylvania. u.s. coast guard. 2012. national recreation boating survey, washington, dc. u.s. department of the interior, fish and wildlife service, and u.s. department of commerce, u.s. census bureau. 2006. national survey of fishing, hunting, and wildlife associated recreation. u.s. environmental protection agency. 2013. national rivers and streams assessment report 2008–2009 (epa/841/d-1 3/001). available at www.epa.gov/sites/production/ files/201603/documents/nrsa_0809_march_3_final.pdf. accessed october 6, 2016. 120 john arway ———. 2016. total maximum daily load (tmdl) program definitions. available at http://ww3.epa.gov. accessed october 6, 2016. waldo, dwight. 1980. the enterprise of public administration: a summary view. novato, ca: chandler and sharp publishers. weber, max. (1922) 1978. economy and society. berkeley: university of california press. wikipedia. 2016a. available at https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/bureaucracy. accessed october 6, 2016. ———. 2016b. available at https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/technocracy. accessed october 6, 2016. wilson, woodrow. 1887. “the study of administration.” political science quarterly 2 (june): 197–222. wolensky, kenneth c. 2016. to protect, conserve, and enhance: the history of the pennsylvania fish and boat commission. harrisburg: pennsylvania fish and boat commission. john arway is executive director of the pennsylvania fish and boat commission. he is the commission’s chief executive officer and chief waterways conservation officer. he has worked for the commission as a fisheries biologist for 37 years. he is a member of the atlantic states marine fisheries commission, mid-a tlantic fishery management council, pennsylvania environmental quality board, wild resource conservation board, and sportfishing and boating partnership council and serves on the executive committees of the association of fish and wildlife agencies and the northeast association of fish and wildlife agencies. he is past president of the pennsylvania chapter and northeastern division of the american fisheries society. he has received the american fisheries society, fisheries management section award of merit, pennsylvania council of trout unlimited’s outstanding professional conservationist award, and pennsylvania association of environmental professionals’ water lyon award. he has dedicated his career to the protection, conservation, and management of the commonwealth’s aquatic resources in order to provide fishing and boating opportunities. he has testified as an expert witness in over 100 cases and is an effective advocate for applying scientific facts in legal, public policy, and political discussions. he holds a bachelor’s degree in biology from the university of pittsburgh and a master’s degree in aquatic biology from tennessee technological university. structure bookmarks the past the future book 1.indb commonwealth forum: should state government subsidize the economic development of natural gas facilities? yes the pennsylvania department of community and economic development’s website has an “investment tracker” that allows visitors to view economic development activities by the commonwealth since 2000. the drop-down menu lists 322 programs that have been administered during this period. like it or not, state government is in the business of economic development. the first component of competing nationally and internationally for jobs is by providing a favorable tax and regulatory environment. the second component is attracting individual firms through targeted tax breaks, infrastructure development, relocation assistance, and job training programs. pennsylvania has been hit hard by deindustrialization. however, the continued technological development of hydraulic fracturing practices has presented the state with a way to create more jobs by accessing oil and natural gas in the marcellus shale. the commonwealth has decided to invest heavily in encouraging the growth of this industry. pennsylvania is now the second-largest natural gas producer in the united states. at the end of 2016, 20,524 workers were directly employed in oil and natural gas production, and 54,547 were employed providing supplies to the industry. pennsylvania marcellus shale development has resulted in $10 billion of investment to build or retrofit natural gas power plants. it has also attracted jobs through corollary businesses such as petrochemical plants and natural gas exporting facilities. further, the impact fee levied on producers by the state raised $1.2 billion through the end of 2017. this money is disbursed to state agencies and local governments for infrastructure development, conservation programs, and, for some localities, tax cuts. beyond economic development and tax revenues, cheap natural gas has lowered utility prices for residents of pennsylvania. given these results, how is it possible to argue against the commonwealth’s investment in this industry? no why should state government subsidize an already heavily subsidized industry? estimates vary, but fossil fuels already receive a subsidy of around energy policy 69 $20 billion per year. the costs in terms of environmental degradation, poor health outcomes, and contribution to climate change are not included in the price of natural gas or any other fossil fuel. while natural gas burns cleaner than coal or oil, companies that produce it should not receive public dollars to pollute the air and water. the shell ethane cracker plant planned in beaver county will receive the largest tax subsidy in state history, valued at $1.65 billion. meanwhile, the plant will create only six hundred permanent jobs ($2.75 million per job!). is such a massive tax expenditure really worth it? no wonder state government is experiencing such tough budget decisions and a $2 billion structural budget deficit. they’re giving away the store. such subsidies result in a raw deal for pennsylvanians. tax cuts for large, wealthy, multinational corporations mean state revenue must come from somewhere else, namely, average citizens. to add insult to injury, parts of the plant are being built in mexico and shipped to the construction site. not only that, but of the estimated $100 million in steel needed to build the plant, manufacturers in pennsylvania would be lucky to get a few crumbs. most likely, the steel will come from china. so, pennsylvania citizens are paying to advance the development of not only large profitable corporations, but other nations, too. one can only wish for such dedication from state government to the advancement of its own people as they have for the polluting fossil fuel industry. for more information the pennsylvania public utility commission (http:// www .puc .state .pa .us/ filing _resources/ issues _laws _regulations/ act _13 _impact _fee _ .aspx) has an act 13 (impact fee) website dedicated to providing information and resources related to the law and its collected revenues. powersource (http:// powersource .post -gazette .com/) of the pittsburgh postgazette is a special supplement on energy policy. it covers the pittsburgh region’s natural gas, coal, nuclear, and alternative energy sectors in context. state impact pennsylvania (https:// stateimpact .npr .org/ pennsylvania/) is a product of member national public radio stations witf and whyy covering the topics of energy, the environment, and the economy. it was developed in response to the last decade‘s growing energy economy in the state. the marcellus shale coalition (http:// marcelluscoalition .org/) provides information on natural gas from the perspective of the industries that are extracting it from the marcellus shale. from pennsylvania politics and policy: a commonwealth reader, volume 1. edited by michelle j. atherton and j. wesley leckrone (philadelphia, temple university press, 2018). drug overdoses in pennsylvania commonwealth, volume 20, issue 1 (2018). © 2018 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/com.v20i2-3.186. all rights reserved. drug overdoses in pennsylvania measuring, tracking, and forecasting the epidemic donald s. burke university of pittsburgh jeanine m. buchanich university of pittsburgh among the many challenges for public officials in controlling the opioid epidemic, one major problem is how to accurately measure, track, and forecast the epidemic’s course, and how to reliably assess the effectiveness—and cost effectiveness—of epidemic control measures. in this review we summarize available epidemiological data on substance use disorders and their complications that can be useful to measure and track the epidemic in pennsylvania. we examine the data through the lens of a systems approach, with the goal of using epidemiological data to create and parameterize dynamic models of the epidemic. we suggest that by integrating a variety of datasets into systems models, it should be possible to forecast and predict the future trajectory of the epidemic and make appropriate decisions on how to mitigate the epidemic. in addition, we identify several potentially valuable data sources that are currently underused for public health decision making. deaths attributable to drug overdoses are increasing, rapidly and inexorably, in the commonwealth of pennsylvania as well as across the entire united states. among the many challenges for public officials in controlling this epidemic, one major problem is how to accurately measure, track, and forecast the epidemic’s course, and how to reliably assess the effectiveness—and costeffectiveness—of epidemic control measures 24 donald s. burke and jeanine m. buchanich (figure 1). the count of reported deaths due to overdoses per year is one key metric of the epidemic. another is the count of instances of medical complications attributable to substance use, including nonfatal overdoses and hospitalizations. yet the epidemic extends well beyond these relatively easily identifiable encounters with the health system, to include persons who use drugs, and those who are dependent on drugs. additional methods such as surveys are necessary to determine the number of users in a given jurisdiction, to provide an estimate of the entire size of the epidemic, and to generate forecasts of the number of persons at risk for hospitalizations and deaths in the future. figure 1 represents hospitalizations, overdoses, and deaths as the tip of the iceberg of the drug use epidemic. in this review we summarize available epidemiological data on substance use disorders and their complications that can be useful to measure and track the epidemic in pennsylvania. we examine the data through the lens of a systems approach, with the goal of using epidemiological data to create and parameterize dynamic models of the epidemic. we also suggest that by integrating a variety of datasets into systems models, it should be possible to forecast and predict the future trajectory of the epidemic and make appropriate decisions on how to mitigate the epidemic. we also identify several potentially valuable data sources that are currently underused for public health decision making, including urine drug testing screens, law enforcement drug seizure information, and prescribing and payer claims. we suggest that by integrating these currently underused datasets with existing epidemiological datasets, it should be possible to develop improved descriptive and predictive analytic models. figure 1. pyramid. (source: created by authors.) drug overdoses in pennsylvania 25 death records overdose mortality as calculated from official death records is the most important epidemic metric. individual deaths in the united states are coded and classified according to the world health organization’s international classification of diseases (icd) (figure 2), and states submit exact text from the death certificate to the national center for health statistics (nchs) to be coded into the underlying cause of death and contributory cause(s) of death by a computer algorithm. the map of death rates for the entire united states is shown for the year 2015 (the most currently available data). pennsylvania lies in a cluster of states with high death rates that spans appalachia and includes western pennsylvania, ohio, kentucky, west virginia, and tennessee. other clusters of states with high death rates are in new england and in the southwestern united states. the epidemic has become increasingly severe in pennsylvania, such that overdoses are now the leading cause of death among adult pennsylvanians between the ages of 25 and 44 years. more than one half million overdose deaths have occurred in the united states from 1979 through 2015 (n = 541,059). the 9th icd revision was in effect from 1979 to 1998, after which the 10th revision came into effect. figure 2. 2015 drug overdose mortality rate per 100,000. (source: centers for disease control and prevention. 2017. drug overdose death data. available at https://www.cdc.gov/drugoverdose/ data/statedeaths.html. accessed february 7, 2018.) 26 donald s. burke and jeanine m. buchanich unintentional drug poisoning, or overdose, deaths were assigned specific codes (e850–e858 in the icd9 system and x40–x44 in the icd10 system) (figure 3). the icd9 and icd10 systems are sufficiently similar so that causes of death can be tracked seamlessly from 1979 through the icd9 to icd10 transition in 1999 to the present. when deaths per year are plotted, total overdose death counts per year in the united states from 1979 to 2015 have increased on a nearly perfect exponential curve (r^2 = 0.99). the mean percent increase in the number of overdose deaths in the united states since 1979 has been 9% per year, which results in an approximately eightyear doubling time. the graphical plot of overdose deaths in the commonwealth of pennsylvania during this same time interval also reveals a near perfect exponential pattern of growth (r^2 = 0.97). preliminary data on drug overdoses released by the drug enforcement agency show that last year the epidemic in the commonwealth of pennsylvania continued to grow at a rate that exceeded the historical average exponential rate of growth (3,642 drugrelated overdose deaths, an increase of 37% from 2015). based on nearly four decades figure 3. exponential growth of overdose deaths in pennsylvania. (source: created by authors.) drug overdoses in pennsylvania 27 of inexorably increasing overdose deaths, it is reasonable to forecast that the current exponential growth will continue into the near future, unless extraordinary new efforts to control the epidemic are implemented. analyses of u.s. accidental poisoning deaths have found higher rates in certain areas and states, including pennsylvania (buchanich et al. 2016; warner et al. 2014; warner et al. 2011) (figure 4). pennsylvania was one of 20 states with a statistically significantly higher rate compared to the u.s. average. rates for accidental poisoning mortality in pennsylvania have increased more than 14fold since 1979 (balmert et al. 2016). the largest rate increases were among 35–44yearolds, females, and white adults. the highest accidental poisoning mortality rates were found in the counties of southwestern pennsylvania, those surrounding philadelphia, and those in northeast pennsylvania near scranton (balmert et al. 2016). when the icd 10th revision was implemented in 1999, it became more straightforward to differentiate which specific drugs were involved in overdose deaths. drugspecific overdose deaths are identified based on the contributory causes of death, or the “t” codes. the t codes are assigned as the contributory causes based on the specific drugs recorded by the coroner or medical examiner completing the death certificate. codes exist for nonopioid figure 4. pennsylvania overdose rate by county. (source: l. c. balmert, et al. 2016. “patterns and trends in accidental poisoning deaths: pennsylvania’s experience 1979–2014.” plos one 11 [3]: e0151655.) 28 donald s. burke and jeanine m. buchanich drugs (such as cocaine and benzodiazepines) and several classes of opioid drugs (opium; heroin; natural and semisynthetic opioids commonly called opioid pain relievers; methadone; other synthetic opioids, including fentanyl) and unspecified narcotics. opioid pain relievers (opr) have been reported in 75% of overdose deaths involving a pharmaceutical (jones, mack, and paulozzi 2013). however, the increase in overdose deaths is not attributable only to opioid pain relievers. twentyeight states have reported that heroin deaths doubled between 2010 and 2012 (rudd et al. 2014), while deaths from opr during this same time period decreased 6.6%. a recent examination of patterns of death by drug type across the united states found that, from 2013 to 2014, opr death rates increased 9%, heroin death rates increased 26%, and synthetic narcotic death rates increased 80% (rudd et al. 2016a). more recent data from 2015 and 2016 suggest that rates continue to rise (hedegaard, warner, and miniño 2017). data recently released by the drug enforcement agency show that in 2016 fentanyl and related synthetic opioids were identified in 52% of overdose deaths, and heroin was identified in 45% of deaths. hospitalizations hospitalization data can be used to track nonfatal health impacts of the epidemic. on a regional level (using census divisions that place pennsylvania in the northeast region of the united states) from 2012–2014, the estimated hospitalization rates increased for both prescription opioid pain relievers and heroin: a 12% increase in prescription overdose hospitalizations and a 34% increase for heroin overdose hospitalizations (unick and ciccarone 2017). the pennsylvania health care cost containment council (phc4) is an independent state agency that is mandated to collect inpatient hospitalization data across the commonwealth. according to phc4 data, pennsylvania has a rate of prescription drug overdose hospitalizations of 31.1 admissions per 100,000 residents, compared with 14.4 per 100,000 residents for heroin overdose admissions (figure 5). from 2014 to 2016, pennsylvania has seen a 66% increase in the number of hospital admissions due to heroin. in 2016 alone, hospitalizations resulted in payments of an estimated $14 million for heroin admissions and $13 million for prescription drug admissions. eighty four percent of admissions were urban residents, but there were larger annual increases per year in rural areas at 27% compared to urban areas with a 24% increase from 2011–2016 (pennsylvania health care cost containment council 2016a). drug overdoses in pennsylvania 29 figure 5. hospitalization rate per 100,000. (source: pennsylvania health care cost containment council 2016.) rates of drug-r elated hospitalizations among pregnant women and infants have also risen dramatically. in pennsylvania, there has been an almost continual increase from 2000–2015 of substance-r elated neonatal hospital stays, representing a 250% increase (from 5.6 per 1,000 in 2000 to 19.5 per 1,000 in 2015). a similar increase has been observed for maternal stays, with a 510% increase (from 2.8 per 1,000 in 2000 to 16.8 per 1,000 in 2015) (pennsylvania health care cost containment council 2016b). prescriptions overprescribing of opioids is believed to be an important driver of the overdose epidemic, but the relationship is complicated. recently, as opioid overdose deaths have continued to increase, prescribing has been decreasing. opioid prescribing rates peaked in 2011 and have since declined. nonetheless estimated levels of prescribing in the united states are still three times as high in 2015 as they were in 1999 (guy et al. 2017). prescription data can be obtained from various contract research organizations (cro). cro provide support services to pharmaceutical companies, often in the form of market analytics. one such type of market analytics data is national prescription drug audit databases (figure 6), which are typically used for marketing purposes 30 donald s. burke and jeanine m. buchanich by pharmaceutical companies. this is useful to researchers and policymakers alike, as they can provide prescribing rates and counts by drug year over year, and can be used to aid in evaluation of interventions related to prescription drug and public health surveillance. however, access to this database comes at an exorbitant cost and is generally prohibitively expensive for state government agencies, university researchers, and notforprofits to purchase. for pennsylvania, prescribing data are also available via the prescription drug monitoring program (pdmp). act 191 of 2014 requires monitoring of controlled substances for schedule ii through schedule v, and charges the pennsylvania department of health as the responsible state agency to support the operations of the database. the pdmp is a statewide database that houses information regarding dispensing of controlled substances to patients around the commonwealth. this allows prescribers to access the prior dispensing history of any given patient, and this information can be used to inform clinician prescribing and treatment decisions. the pdmp is also helpful as a mechanism for law enforcement agencies to monitor for fraudulent prescribing and diversion of prescription drugs. by providing access to this database figure 6. annual opioid prescribing rates, by number of days’ supply, average daily morphine milligram equivalent (mme) per prescription, and average number of days’ supply per prescription—united states, 2006–2015. (source: g. p. guy jr., et al. 2017. “vital signs: changes in opioid prescribing in the united states, 2006–2015.” morbidity and mortality weekly report 66 [july 7]: 697–704.) drug overdoses in pennsylvania 31 on a deidentified basis, researchers and public officials can develop better analysis and predictive analytics to better understand prescribing patterns, geographic areas in need of additional intervention and training, and appropriate resource deployment as needed. (for more information on pdmps in pennsylvania, see mirigian et al. 2018 in this issue.) in an effort to curb overprescribing, the centers for disease control and prevention (cdc) released new guidelines in 2016 for prescribing practices for physicians. these guidelines included recommendations to try to avoid opioid prescribing by: using other nonpharmacologic practices for pain, establishing treatment goals in conjunction with the patient to reduce risks of opioid abuse, identifying and communicating these risks to patients prior to initiating opioid therapies, checking and using an available prescription drug monitoring program (pdmp), implementing urine drug testing as a component of opioid use therapy, and using medicationassisted treatment (mat) when appropriate for those with opioid use disorders (dowell, haegerich, and chou 2016). a complicating factor for some of these prescribing patterns may be tied to pharmaceutical industry incentives. industry payments to opioid prescribers have increased each year since 2013, with an estimated one in twelve physicians receiving payments from the pharmaceutical industry (hadland, krieger, and marshall 2017). surveys the largest and most reliable survey of drug use in the united states is the national survey on drug use and health (nsduh) conducted annually by the substance abuse and mental health services administration (samhsa). the nsduh survey involves interviews with approximately 70,000 randomly selected individuals aged 12 and older across the united states. in 2015, 27.1 million people aged 12 or older had used an illicit drug in the past 30 days (10.1%). most of the illicit drug use was marijuana; there were 22.2 million current marijuana users aged 12 or older (i.e., users in the past 30 days) (table 1). regarding opioid use, 3.8 million people aged 12 or older reported current misuse of prescription pain relievers (1.4%), and 600,000 people aged 12 or older reported current misuse of heroin (0.2%). the nsduh sampling table 1. estimates of opioid epidemic in western pennsylvania, based on the national survey of drug use and health nonmedical use of pain relievers 160,000 heroin users 25,000 32 donald s. burke and jeanine m. buchanich in any given state within the united states is insufficient to generate reliable statespecific estimates of drug use. however, if the national rates from the nsduh survey are simply applied to the population of the commonwealth of pennsylvania, which has a population of 12.8 million (out of the total u.s. population of 310 million), then the number of persons currently using pain relievers and heroin can be estimated. given that the overdose death rates are substantially higher in pennsylvania than the national average, these estimates are probably much too low, by a factor of two or threefold. unfortunately, better data are not available. underused data sources records of deaths, hospitalizations, prescriptions, and surveys provide important data to measure and track the course of the opioid epidemic. however, other potentially valuable sources of information about opioids exist that remain relatively inaccessible to public health officials. for example, millions of urine drug tests are administered in the united states each year as required by various federal regulations as well as industry and employer policies. urine drug testing protocols and labs are certified to conduct testing on specimens. workplace tests are primarily conducted by just a few lab companies across the united states (federal register 2017). many of these laboratories hold these data as proprietary and restrict access and openness. for others, confusion exists about federal statutes and regulations regarding privacy mandates. some are reluctant to share these data due to the ambiguity that surrounds the permissibility of sharing data, even in a de-i dentified manner. these data could be used for nearly realtime results about not only the prevalence of drug use among employees but also the types of drugs being used. these data could then inform efforts to model and forecast the epidemic and understand patterns not only of substance use, but also its effects and ramifications on the labor force. the drug enforcement agency (dea) maintains the automation of reports and consolidated orders system (arcos) database to report and track controlled substances transactions and monitors the flow of controlled substances across the continuum of manufacturer, sales, and dispensing, with a goal of monitoring for drug diversion and proper distribution of controlled substances. the monitoring and flow of illicitly manufactured and trafficked drugs via drug seizure data are collected by various law enforcement agencies across multiple levels of oversight; however, these are not readily shared and disseminated in forms that lend themselves to easy analysis. increased openness of data sharing and usage between law enforcement agencies and other entities for the study and analysis of data could yield drug overdoses in pennsylvania 33 better knowledge about the epidemic and more effective policy and intervention decisions. a third source of potentially valuable data is the national ems information system database (nemsis). it derived from a federal government–led effort to standardize reporting and aggregation of local and state based ems data across the country and to report into a national database. pennsylvania data could be used to understand emergency medical services’ response to the epidemic and to provide a means to analyze the majority of nonhospital naloxone administrations throughout the commonwealth. currently the national level dataset does not provide geographic specificity, and therefore presents a challenge to data analysis in regard to surveillance and forecasting. this level of insight could provide a more rapid reporting and surveillance of overdose hotspots and could aid in evaluating existing interventions, provided that the database is used to its full capacity (mann et al. 2015). lastly, pennsylvania may benefit from moving closer to establishing an allpayer claims database, which typically houses thirdparty payers’ claims data. these robust cost and claims data would enhance future models and decision making when analyzed on a state and payer level. allpayer claims databases can provide an improved mechanism for state policymakers to factor in health costs in decision making, and public health agencies can use the claims data for surveillance and intervention planning (freedman, green, and landon 2016). public health data sharing can be challenging, with a myriad of potential barriers including technical challenges, motivational, economic, political, legal, and ethical concerns and challenges (van panhuis et al. 2014). governmental agencies should work to implement greater data sharing, while continuing to protect private and protected health information and meeting regulatory and statutory requirements. economic burden there have been few studies of the costs of the current overdose epidemic on u.s. society, and no published studies specifically of the impact on the commonwealth of pennsylvania. last year a study from the centers for disease control and prevention (cdc) was published that reported an estimate for the nationwide economic burden of the epidemic for the year 2013. they estimated the total economic burden to be $78.5 billion. of that total, one-t hird was due to increased health care and substance abuse treatment costs ($28.9 billion). they also reported that approximately onequarter of the total economic burden of the epidemic was borne by the public sector for health care, 34 donald s. burke and jeanine m. buchanich substance use treatment, and criminal justice. if the national economic burden for the year 2013 from this cdc study is simply proportionally applied to the population of the commonwealth of pennsylvania, which has a population of 12.8 million (out of the total u.s. population of 310 million), then the economic burden of the opioid epidemic for the commonwealth of pennsylvania in 2013 was $3.2 billion. however, because overdose deaths have increased by at least 70% in pennsylvania in the four years since 2013, we estimate that the current economic burden in pennsylvania will likely be closer to $4.7 billion per year. onequarter of the total, or $1.2 billion per year, is being borne by the public sector in the commonwealth. note that because the overdose death rates are substantially higher in pennsylvania than the national average (as above), these estimates of economic burden are probably much too low. and again, unfortunately, better data are not currently available. databased modeling for decision support all decisions are made on the basis of models. most models are in our heads. mental models are not true and accurate images of our surroundings, but are only sets of assumptions and observations gained from experiences. . . . computer simulation models can compensate for weaknesses in mental models. —jay forrester the opioid epidemic can be conceptualized and diagrammed as a dynamical system, which can be represented in computer code as a computational model. a robust and validated computational representation of the overdose epidemic could provide valuable decision-m aking support by providing a tool to simulate and evaluate difficult policy options in silico before they are implemented at a population level. furthermore, the mere act of developing a model is often a useful exercise in itself in that it generates discussion and understanding about how the various subsystems interact within the larger complex system the overdose epidemic involves persons who are nonusers, legal users, illicit users, those with substance use disorders, and those who are in recovery, with transitions between these states. individuals and the probability that they will transition from one substance use state to another are affected by their community, the prescription drug supply system, the illicit drug supply system, law enforcement, and treatment providers. figure 7 shows a simplified diagram of some of these interacting components. indeed, the organization of this special volume of commonwealth reflects the complicated dynamics of the epidemic and its subcomponents, including physicians, prescription drug overdoses in pennsylvania 35 monitoring, prevention, treatment and recovery, families and social connections, and the community. computational models and simulations are widely used for decision support in other complex dynamical public health emergencies, such as epidemics of infectious diseases. we suggest that it should be similarly possible to use the datasets we have discussed here in useful computational models for decision support in the current opioid epidemic (burke 2016). conclusions numerous data sources are necessary to obtain a clear and comprehensive picture of the overdose epidemic in pennsylvania. these data not only include regularly collected reports on deaths and hospitalizations but also prescribing data, survey data, law enforcement data, and several other possible sources of data. unfortunately, at present these data are not systematically collected and are not routinely made available to the public. one important step in epidemic control would be for the commonwealth of pennsylvania to create and curate a comprehensive data system in which granular (i.e., detailed) data from all these disparate sources are systematically collected and stored in such a way that the data are accessible. new standards should be developed and implemented for opioid epidemiological data in the commonwealth that are consistent with the “fair” (findable, accessible, interoperable, reproducible) principles for sharing of public health emergency data. these various data sources can then be integrated into systemwide models for improved figure 7. systematic continuum. (source: created by authors.) 36 donald s. burke and jeanine m. buchanich epidemic decision making, including policy analysis and costeffectiveness studies. note acknowledgment: the authors thank michael mallon for his assistance in preparation of this article. references balmert, lauren c., jeanine m. buchanich, janice l. pringle, karl e. williams, donald s. burke, and gary m. marsh. 2016. “patterns and trends in accidental poisoning deaths: pennsylvania’s experience 1979–2014.” plos one 11 (march): e0151655. buchanich, jeanine m., lauren c. balmert, janice l. pringle, karl e. williams, donald s. burke, and gary. m. marsh. 2016. “patterns and trends in accidental poisoning death rates in the u.s., 1979–2014.” preventative medicine 89 (august): 317–323. burke, donald s. 2016. “forecasting the opioid epidemic.” science 354 (november): 529. dowell, deborah, tamara m. haegerich, and roger chou. 2016. “cdc guideline for prescribing opioids for chronic pain—united states.” the journal of the american medical association 315 (april): 1624–1645. federal register. 2017. 41632. volume 82. no 169. september 1. freedman, john d., linda green, and bruce e. landon. 2016. “allpayer claims databases—uses and expanded prospects after gobeille.” the new england journal of medicine 375 (december): 2215–2217. guy, gery p., jr., kun zhang, michele k. bohm, jan losby, brian lewis, randall young, louise b. murphy, and deborah dowell. 2017. “vital signs: changes in opioid prescribing in the united states, 2006–2015.” morbidity and mortality weekly report 66 (july): 697–704. hadland, scott e., maxwell s. krieger, and brandon d. l. marshall. 2017. “industry payments to physicians for opioid products, 2013–2015.” american journal of public health 107 (september): 1493–1495. hedegaard, holly, margaret warner, and arialdi m. miniño. 2017. “drug overdose deaths in the united states, 1999–2015.” national center for health statistics data brief no. 273, us department of health and human services. february. jones, christopher m., karin a. mack, and leonard j. paulozzi. 2013. “pharmaceutical overdose deaths, united states, 2010.” the journal of the american medical association 309 (7), 657–659. mann, clay, lauren kane, mengtao dai, and karen jacobson. 2015. “description of the 2012 nemsis publicrelease research dataset.” prehospital emergency care 19 (2): 232–240. pennsylvania health care cost containment council. 2016a. “hospitalizations for opioid overdose—2016.” available at http://www.phc4.org/reports/researchbriefs/ overdoses/16/. accessed february 6, 2018. ———. 2016b. “neonatal and maternal hospitalizations related to substance use.” available at http://www.phc4.org/reports/researchbriefs/neonatal/092716/. accessed february 6, 2018. rudd, rose a., noah aleshire, jon e. zibbell, and r. matthew gladden. 2016a. “increases in drug and opioid overdose deaths—united states, 2000–2014.” american journal of transplantation 64 (march): 1378–1382. drug overdoses in pennsylvania 37 rudd, rose a., len j. paulozzi, michael j. bauer, richard w. burleson, rick e. carlson, dan dao, james w. davis, jennifer dudek, beth ann eichler, jessie c. fernandes, anna fondario, barbara gabella, beth hume, theron huntamer, mbabazi kariisa, thomas w. largo, joanne miles, ashley newmeyer, daniela nitcheva, beatriz e. perez, scott k. proescholdbell, jennifer c. sabel, jessica skiba, svetla slavova, kathy stone, john m. tharp, tracy wendling, dagan wright, and anne m. zehner. 2014. “increases in heroin overdose deaths—28 states, 2010 to 2012.” morbidity and mortality weekly report 63 (october): 849–854. unick, george jay, and daniel ciccarone. 2017. “us regional and demographic differences in prescription opioid and heroinrelated overdose hospitalizations.” international journal of drug policy 46: 112–119. van panhuis, willem g., proma paul, claudia emerson, john grefenstette, richard wilder, abraham j. herbst, david heymann, and donald s. burke. 2014. “a systematic review of barriers to data sharing in public health.” bmc public health 14 (november): 1144. warner, margaret, holly hedegaard, lihui chen. 2014. “trends in drugpoisoning deaths involving opioid analgesics and heroin: united states, 1999–2012.” national center for health statistics e-s tat., us department of health and human services. december. warner, margaret, li hui chen, diane m. makuc, robert n. anderson, arialdi m. miniño. 2011. “drug poisoning deaths in the united states, 1980–2008.” national center for health statistics data brief no. 81, us department of health and human services. december. donald s. burke is dean of the graduate school of public health at the university of pittsburgh. he is a physician-e pidemiologist with expertise in preventing and controlling infectious disease epidemics. he and his colleagues have been applying computational methods to analyze and forecast the future trajectory of the opioid epidemic and to develop new strategies to bend the epidemic curve. jeanine m. buchanich is a research associate professor of biostatistics at the graduate school of public health, university of pittsburgh. an expert in vital statistics epidemiology, she has investigated mortality trends in the united states and pennsylvania, with emphasis on the opioid overdose epidemic. with colleagues, she has applied these analyses to forecasts of the mortality trajectory to determine ways in which to bend the epidemic curve. commonwealth matters commonwealth, volume 19, issue 2 (2017). © 2017 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/com.v19i2.151. all rights reserved. commonwealth matters j. wesley leckrone editor-in-chief this issue of commonwealth features three articles that examine the current state of politics and policy in pennsylvania. berwood yost, jackie redman, and scottie thompson explore the 2016 presidential and senatorial elections in pennsylvania. on the basis of preand post-election surveys, they find that donald trump succeeded in winning by capturing voters with lower education, a desire for change, and negative evaluations of president barack obama’s tenure. pat toomey won reelection with a similar base, but his supporters included fewer independents than trump’s and educational level played less of a role. a voting surge in working-class counties across central and western pennsylvania—added to the relative stability in turnout in traditional democratic strongholds—helped turn the commonwealth red in 2016. jennie sweet-cushman and ashley harden follow this article with an examination of child care in pennsylvania. they find there is significant public concern over this issue, particularly since the costs of child care can rival the costs of college. yet the federal government has done little to address childcare costs, leaving states to fill the void with programs of their own. sweet-cushman and harden find that while pennsylvania has a patchwork of policies, it has not kept pace with the innovations of other states. finally, nathan r. shrader’s article explores the mechanics of school board races in pennsylvania. the results of the pennsylvania school board survey 2 j. wesley leckrone show that local parties and party officials are more likely to recruit and publicize candidates for school board membership than are other types of civic and community organizations. shrader argues that this finding shows the vitality of local parties and their contribution to the health of the electoral process. looking ahead to 2018, we are proud to announce that mark a. nordenberg, chancellor emeritus of the university of pittsburgh, will be editing our special issue on the opioid crisis in pennsylvania. moreover, in addition to our collaboration on commonwealth, the pennsylvania political science association (ppsa) and temple university press will be publishing a hard-copy volume entitled state of the commonwealth: annual review of pennsylvania politics and policy. this anthology of articles from past issues of commonwealth will feature a variety of policy issues, enhanced with new material making the annual review ideal for classes on state and local government or public policy. the first issue will be available for fall 2018 classroom adoption. more information will be included in the january 2018 issue of commonwealth. finally, we ask that all our readers encourage their libraries to subscribe to commonwealth. subscriptions are included in the cost of ppsa membership. however, the financial health of the journal depends on our ability to broaden our base of subscribers. a library recommendation form is provided at the back of the journal. commonwealth forum commonwealth forum should pennsylvania abolish the property tax for schools? in november 2015, the pennsylvania senate narrowly failed to pass legislation abolishing the local school property tax and replacing it with state revenues raised by higher income and sales tax rates and the extension of the sales tax to a range of goods and services now exempt. the legislation, supported by dozens of citizen tax reform groups across pennsylvania, was defeated 25–24 when lt. governor michael stack cast a tiebreaking vote against an amendment embodying the changes. state senators david argall and judith schwank were principal sponsors of the legislation and vowed to continue the fight. indeed, legislation to replace, reform, and reduce the property tax, particularly for schools, has been proposed and debated for decades, and some relief measures have been enacted, but the tax remains the principal levy to fund schools in pennsylvania and in most states. citizens in pennsylvania and nationally consistently tell pollsters that it is the worst tax, and few if any elected officials will defend the levy, except on the pragmatic grounds that replacing it would require unrealistically large increases in state taxes. commonwealth invited senator argall, chair of the senate republican policy committee, and jon hopcraft, the committee’s executive director, to sumcommonwealth, volume 18, issue 1 (june 2016). © 2016 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/cjppp.v18i1.81. all rights reserved. 8 david g. argall and jon hopcraft marize the argument that the tax is an antiquated and unfair levy and should be abolished. we invited dartmouth college economist william a. fischel, a nationally recognized expert who attended pennsylvania public schools, to summarize his argument that, compared to statewide taxes, the local levy provides voters—even in households without school children—with stronger incentives to support high quality public schools. yes, abolish the property tax: it is the worst tax for schools david g. argall pennsylvania senate and chair of the senate republican policy committee jon hopcraft executive director of the senate republican policy committee at the start of his career in 1890 at columbia university, edwin seligman deemed the property tax as “the worst tax known in the civilized world” (brunori et al. 2006). one hundred twenty-six years later, seligman’s declaration would be met with raucous applause at town hall meetings across much of pennsylvania. the property tax is one of the oldest taxes in history—athens levied a land tax in 596 bc (jennings 2015). in 1982, former pennsylvania senate majority leader john stauffer hypothesized that the first complaint about real estate taxes was likely submitted in athens in 596 bc. article iii, section 14 of the pennsylvania constitution requires, “the general assembly shall provide for the maintenance and support of a thorough and efficient system of public education to serve the needs of the commonwealth.” we would challenge anyone today to argue that pennsylvania’s current school property tax system actually promotes a “thorough and efficient system of public education.” think what has changed in pennsylvania education since the first school property tax was enacted in the 1830s: teachers are no longer paid partly in vegetables, our children no longer learn in one-room schoolhouses, teachers are much better educated, and students have moved from chalk and slate to commonwealth forum 9 textbooks and computers, but taxpayers still pay for public education through an outmoded, archaic, and unfair property tax. today, pennsylvania school districts receive most of their funding from local property taxes with the state and federal governments contributing approximately 45%. again, let us quote the late senator stauffer, who served in the pennsylvania general assembly from 1965–1988 and summed it up best: “although [the property tax’s] use has become nearly universal, it is the most unfair, fastest-rising and most capricious tax. property tax assessments and reassessments have become bywords for political manipulation.” according to the input we have received at countless town hall meetings, the situation has not improved since senator stauffer’s unsuccessful efforts to reform the school property tax system in the 1980s. this debate has gone on for decades in the pennsylvania general assembly with the key question “what is the best way to fund our public schools?” in 1953, governor fine enacted the state sales and use tax at 1%—while this tripled state aid for education, it failed to kill off school property taxes (phmc 2015a). in 1971, governor shapp won a long-fought battle with the legislature and created the state income tax at 2.3%, dubbed the “emergency income tax.” shapp increased aid to public schools and also signed a bill into law creating the pennsylvania state lottery with the intent to provide property tax relief to senior citizens (phmc 2015b), but it failed to kill off the school property tax. in 2004, governor rendell legalized casino gaming with a portion of the revenue dedicated toward property tax relief, but the hated school property tax continued to grow. in 2006, the approval of act 1 tied allowable school property tax increases to inflation for the first time. the exemptions in act 1, however, have allowed school districts to raise property taxes above the act 1 index. in 2014, the state granted exceptions to 164 public schools across the commonwealth to raise their property taxes above the act 1 index (frantz 2014). since 2008, nearly one-third of the state’s 500 public school districts annually received exceptions from the state to raise taxes above the act 1 limit (welton 2015). the pattern over the last six decades is clear—any temporary tax becomes permanent and any tax relief effort is temporary. due to the state government’s inability to prevent school property taxes from rising each year, the calls to eliminate—not reform—this hated tax continue to grow louder each year. why do people across pennsylvania hate the school property tax? here’s one major reason: from 1993–1994 to 2012–2013, while the average annual regional consumer price index increased approximately 2.5%, the annual average school district property tax increased by nearly double the inflation rate at 4.9%. in other words, over that period, as figure 1 indicates, the consumer price index 10 david g. argall and jon hopcraft figure 1. historic trends. (data source: u.s. census bureau, 2015.) cumulatively increased by 61% while the school property tax increased by 146% (independent fiscal office 2013). the annual increases to school property taxes continue to outpace any other economic indicator despite act 1 limitations. this is why so many people show up at town hall meetings across pennsylvania to demand the elimination of school property taxes. tweaking this hated tax or reforming this unfair and archaic system is not what people are requesting. they are demanding its complete elimination. article viii, section 1 of the pennsylvania constitution requires, “all taxes shall be uniform, upon the same class of subjects, within the territorial limits of the authority levying the tax, and shall be levied and collected under general laws.” the subjective nature of the school property tax flies in the face of the uniformity clause. today, property owners are subject to higher property taxes based on a variety of outmoded factors, including when the property was purchased, upgrades to the interior and/or exterior of a dwelling, reverse appeals, additions to the dwelling, changes to the productive use of the land, among several others factors. cherry-picking homeowners based on the sale of or upgrades to the property not only discourages individuals from purchasing property in certain school districts but also removes any incentive to improve properties due to the threat of future tax increases. the school district property tax is, at best, only remotely tied to an individual’s ability to pay. is this really how we want to fund the education of pennsylvania’s students in the 21st century? the only way to eliminate the unfairness of the school property tax system is to kill it off once and for all. commonwealth forum 11 the plan to eliminate school property taxes in pennsylvania was first developed and drafted by more than 70 grassroots taxpayer advocacy groups from across the state known as the pennsylvania coalition of taxpayer associations. the coalition brought us a plan that would eliminate—not reduce— school property taxes in pennsylvania by shifting to an increased personal income tax (increasing the rate from 3.07% to 4.95%) and an increased and expanded sales and use tax (increasing the rate from 6% to 7% and broadening the tax base). each year, school districts would receive a cost of living adjustment tied to the statewide average weekly wage. the plan would also allow school districts to raise additional revenue through a local personal income tax or earned income tax increase contingent on voter approval. to put that in perspective, 34 other states require school districts to receive voter approval to levy or increase the local tax rate (paul 2015). opponents frequently argue that income and sales taxes are too volatile for school funding. they usually fail to mention, however, that pennsylvania’s overall state budget receives over 70% of its revenue from the personal income tax and sales and use tax. why should we require school districts to depend upon hated and unfair property taxes when the state has long since decided that the sales and income taxes are much fairer and more appropriate taxes to meet our needs? the plan created by the pennsylvania coalition of taxpayer associations is a shift from an unfair, archaic school property tax to a hybrid income and sales tax-based approach. when pennsylvania voters are asked, they agree with this concept. here’s a sampling of the polling data: harper polling determined that pennsylvanians believe that the property tax is the worst tax in pennsylvania (50%)—eclipsing the combined dislike of income (27%) and sales (14%) taxes (harper polling 2015). local tax reform continues to be a key priority statewide, narrowly trailing education funding as the top issue for pennsylvania voters (klinger 2015). during a telephone town hall event on october 6, 2015, with berks and schuylkill county residents, participants overwhelmingly supported elimination (81%) over reduction (11%) and caps on future growth (8%). kqv radio in pittsburgh in april of 2012 found 85% of their listeners support a plan to eliminate school property taxes; the york dispatch in may of 2012 asked a similar question with 73% support of complete elimination; the easton express times surveyed readers in march of 2015 asking about supporting a state budget deal or school property tax elimination with 84% supporting the latter. this proposal, senate bill 76 and house bill 76, would change our archaic school property system to one more in line with what taxpayers can afford to pay. property owners would no longer bear the primary burden of funding 12 david g. argall and jon hopcraft public schools. utilization of the income and sales tax will broaden the tax base creating fairness and uniformity in taxation. urban areas with population outmigration would no longer be tied to an eroding tax base for future revenue needs. instead, more than 12.7 million pennsylvanians plus tourists and other visitors would contribute to the state’s public education system. after a comprehensive review, the pennsylvania independent fiscal office determined that eliminating school property taxes would provide the largest relative tax cut to retired homeowners and increase disposable income for homeowners (independent fiscal office 2012). seniors and homeowners of all ages continue to be the strongest advocates for this legislation. when the plan was first introduced in the state senate in 2011, it garnered the support of roughly one-quarter of the senators. after considerable grassroots lobbying across pennsylvania, the number of senate cosponsors has doubled. the plan was reintroduced in 2013 by 14 republicans and 11 democrats, and again in 2015 with one-half of the senate cosponsoring the measure. on november 23, 2015, the senate debated this proposal for the first time in history. the result was a 24–24 tie vote, which was then defeated by the lieutenant governor’s vote against the measure. how can we finally resolve this decades-long debate and eliminate our archaic school property tax system? we are now meeting with the proponents and the opponents of the measure to find ways to improve the bill. every day, we are searching for that one additional vote that we need to secure passage in the senate and send it to the house for its consideration. we now face a unique window of opportunity in harrisburg. franklin and marshall college professor g. terry madonna and consultant michael young believe that this issue could unite—not further divide—state government leaders during this era of extraordinary partisanship in harrisburg. in an often quoted column titled “rip: the school property tax,” madonna and young (2015) wrote: pennsylvania’s property tax, like property taxes in many other states, is a fossilized artifact from the 19th century that faltered badly in the 20th century and failed spectacularly into the 21st century. . . . now in the 21st century, talking about “reforming” the 19th century property tax really is just rearranging the deck chairs on the titanic long after the iceberg has been hit. the property tax cannot be reformed—but it can be abolished. . . . both sides really want the same thing here— a sane tax system in support of a stable revenue source for schools. realizing that comity of interest is half the journey. getting rid of the commonwealth forum 13 property tax means wolf wins, the gop wins—and most important of all, the long-suffering taxpayers of pennsylvania win. homeownership has been the bedrock of the american dream, but how can one achieve true homeownership when you are merely renting it from a school district? eliminating the 1830s school property tax system and replacing it with a broader, fairer, and more equitable system will not only remove one of the biggest hurdles to achieving the american dream, it will finally bring pennsylvania’s public education financing system into the 21st century. if you do not believe us, come with us to our next town hall meeting. the constituents of the 29th senatorial district would love to share their thoughts with you on this issue. references brunori, david, richard green, michael bell, chanyung choi, and bing yuan. 2006. the property tax: its role and significance in funding state and local government services. washington, dc: george washington institute of public policy. frantz, jeff. 2014. “pa. granted exceptions allowing 164 school districts to raise property taxes more than 2.1 percent.” pennlive, may 2. http://www.pennlive.com/mid state/index.ssf/2014/05/school_property_tax_act_1_exec.html (march 1, 2016). harper polling. 2015. pennsylvania statewide poll. http://harperpolling.com/polls/penn sylvania-statewide-poll-may-2015 (march 1, 2016). independent fiscal office. 2012. analysis of hb 1776 and sb 1400 of 2012. harrisburg, pa. ———. 2013. analysis of proposal to replace school property taxes: house bill 76 and senate bill 76 of 2013. harrisburg, pa. jennings, marianne m. 2015. real estate law. 11th ed. boston: south-western college. klinger, jason. 2015. “franklin & marshall college poll: voters support medical marijuana, suspension of death penalty.” june 18. http://www.fandm.edu/news/latestnews/2015/06/18/franklin-marshall-college-poll-voters-support-medical-mari juana-suspension-of-death-penalty (march 1, 2016). madonna, g. terry, and michael l. young. 2015. “politically uncorrected: rip: the school property tax.” politicspa, march 24. http://www.politicspa.com/politically-uncor rected-rip-the-school-property-tax/64671/ (march 17, 2016). paul, james. 2015. “for property tax relief, give voters control.” commonwealth foundation, november 13. http://www.commonwealthfoundation.org/policyblog/detail/ for-property-tax-relief-give-voters-control (march 16, 2016). pennsylvania historical and museum commission (phmc). 2015a. august 26. http:// www.phmc.state.pa.us/portal/communities/governors/1951-2015/john-fine.html (march 1, 2016). ———. 2015b. august 26. http://www.phmc.state.pa.us/portal/communities/gover nors/1951-2015/milton-shapp.html (march 1, 2016). welton, allison. 2015. “what is act 1 and how did it impact property taxes and school funding?” keystone crossroads, june 22. http://crossroads.newsworks.org/index.php/ local/keystone-crossroads/81310-what-is-act-1-and-how-did-it-impact-property taxes-and-school-funding (march 15, 2016). 14 william a. fischel no, keep the property tax: it is the best tax for schools william a. fischel dartmouth college the local property tax is an important part of funding public school systems in most states. it should be clear from the outset that it would be unwise to rely entirely on local taxes of any sort to fund a system of public schools. some school districts contain a disproportionate number of poor and disadvantaged students, and such districts may need state assistance to give their children an adequate education. state mandates for special-needs students should also be accompanied by funds to pay for the additional expense. but aside from these exceptions, a properly and fairly administered system of local property taxation gives local voters—even those without school-age children—the right incentives to provide a thorough and efficient education. the basic argument for property taxes here is the basic economic argument, which is a distillation of an important paper by stanford’s caroline hoxby (1999). suppose that the local school superintendent, after consulting with principals and teachers, decides that the local high school needs to hire a group of teachers to teach in a newly created stem (science, technology, engineering, and math) program. the voters are asked, directly in a referendum or indirectly through the school board, to finance this program with an increase in local property taxes. in most communities, almost two-thirds of the voters will not have any direct interest in this because they have no children in schools (kurban, gallagher, and persky 2012). an increase in property taxes will seem quite unpalatable to them. considered in isolation, the tax increase would lower their home values (do and sirmans 1994). but the superintendent points out that the stem program will make the school district more attractive to families with school-age children. if the stem program has this effect, it will raise the value of existing homes, which offsets the adverse effect of the property tax rise. this will apply even to voters who currently have no children in school, as long as their homes could be purchased by a family with children. if the offsetting rise is greater than the reduction caused by the tax, most voters would regard this as a desirable commonwealth forum 15 program. and from an economic standpoint, a net gain in the value of homes is an indicator that the program is efficient (brueckner 1982). it also follows that if there are no gains in home values from the program, or there are net losses, then the project is inefficient—the costs are registered as being less than the benefits. in this case, local property taxation provides incentives to reject boondoggles, since the net effect of the tax increase and the misconceived project will reduce home values. local property taxation encourages local voters and their school boards to accept cost-effective projects and reject those that are losers in the eyes of homebuyers. that’s the basic theory: local property taxation subjects school spending to an effective benefit-cost test. the rest of this note will briefly address the evidence supporting this theory—there’s plenty more than i can review here—and add a personal, pennsylvania story to illustrate some overlooked advantages of local control. evidence from economic studies the connection between school quality, property taxes, and local home values has been established in literally hundreds of studies, starting with a pioneering study of new jersey cities by wallace oates (1969). controlling for differences in location, size, and condition of the homes, oates found that levels of school spending and property taxes affected—were “capitalized in”—the average value of houses in each community. he concluded that this provided a test for the efficiency of local decisions: “[f]or an increase in property taxes unaccompanied by an increase in the output of local public services, the bulk of the rise in taxes will be capitalized in the form of reduced property values. on the other hand, if a community increases its tax rates and employs the receipts to improve its school system, the coefficients indicate that the increased benefits from the expenditure side of the budget will roughly offset (or perhaps even more than offset) the depressive effect of the higher tax rates on local property values” (oates 1969, 968). studies since then have shown that voters are actually motivated by the connection between their property’s value and the effects of the program (sonstelie and portney 1980). homeowners are especially attuned to local public decisions because so much of their personal wealth is tied up in their homes (fischel 2001). that local voters without children still support schools because of their beneficial effects on property values is well established (hilber and mayer 2009). the discipline of local funding from property taxes and the encouragement it provides for local improvements explains why states that rely more 16 william a. fischel on locally controlled property taxes have better schools. thomas husted and larry kenny (2000) found that states that reduced their reliance on local property taxes and increased state funds ended up with lower sat scores and other indicators of overall educational quality. joshua hall (2007) concluded that ohio districts that relied more heavily on property taxation performed better than those that got more money from the state. in my own review of a national study of sat scores and state financing that ranked states from highest to lowest, i found that “in their top ten, none had more than 50 percent state funding. in the bottom ten, all but three states had more than 50 percent state funding” (fischel 2002, 98). the most dramatic and long-lasting experiment in school finance centralization—and rejection of local property tax financing—occurred in california in 1978. the state’s voters approved proposition 13, which cut most property taxes by more than half and left funding for the public school system almost entirely up to the state (o’sullivan, sexton, and sheffrin 1995). because of this tax revolt and because the state’s court had severely constrained most local districts’ ability to use local funds, california provides what economists call a “natural experiment” in school finance (fischel 1989). it was “natural” in that prop 13 was sudden and unexpected by most state and local officials. the results of this clean shift from local to state funding could not be more stark. total spending declined, educational quality declined, and more affluent families abandoned the system for private schools. spending in the poorest districts was increased somewhat, but the gap in test scores between the affluent and poorer districts did not narrow at all (brunner and sonstelie 2006). the local property tax also has the advantage of stability. in 2012 north dakota voters were invited to eliminate the local property tax and substitute for it the state’s swelling revenue from oil extraction (fracking) taxes (davey 2012). the voters rejected this plan overwhelmingly, and it turned out to be a wise choice: oil prices have since tumbled, and the state’s school spending would have suffered as well. voters may not love the property tax when considered in isolation, but they appear to realize that it is a more dependable source of revenue for services they care about. local control: a family story as an economist, i have emphasized the economic benefits providing for public education through local taxation. it has a long history in america, and it flourished during the period in which the american high school became the world leader in education (goldin and katz 2008). but local control of education through the property tax also has a less quantifiable aspect. political commonwealth forum 17 scientists have mentioned the community-building aspects of local education finance. alvin sokolow (1998, 182), observes: “in its traditional and relatively unlimited version, the property tax also contributes to representative democracy in two interconnected ways: (1) by giving locally elected officials the discretion to allocate resources in a fashion that represents community priorities; and (2) by engaging citizen-taxpayers directly in the actions of government.” i will illustrate this with a family story. i grew up in lower saucon township, just outside of bethlehem, pennsylvania. the home my parents built and that my four siblings and i were raised in was then (in the 1950s) in a semirural area. the township schools were mostly remnants of one-room schools of the 19th century. although they were not run as traditional one-room schools (all ages in one room), most of them were “doubled up” with two grades per room. despite the antiquarian appeal of the system, my parents were not too pleased with this arrangement, and my mother persuaded my dad to run for the school board. despite a retiring personality and a complete absence of campaign activity, he won the election. he and other new board members helped consolidate the elementary schools into a new facility that offered a much better education (one grade per classroom). after 12 years on the board, he declined to run again. one of my proudest moments for my dad was when a delegation of neighbors arrived one evening to try to persuade him to run again. i would be projecting too much on this to say that dad was motivated by a concern for property values. he did own a fair amount of land and paid property taxes on it, but his chief concern was for the education of his children and that of other children in the township. the point i want to make here is that this virtue does not run contrary to the financial incentives of a system that ties local schools to local property taxes. had the state of pennsylvania built and paid for all public schools from statewide taxes, it is more than possible that education would have progressed much more slowly. harvard economists claudia goldin and larry katz (2008) contrast the robust expansion of locally financed american education in the early 20th century to the lagging european system, which was centrally financed. in europe, advances in education standards had to wait until a national consensus was reached. in america, local school directors like my dad could seize the initiative and move the system ahead with only local approval. such initiatives would be noticed by other districts, who would worry that they might fall behind (and have their home values decline). this benign competition results in more experimentation and keeps education in the forefront of public issues. the property tax as an institution helps make “doing good” match up with “doing well.” 18 william a. fischel references brueckner, jan k. 1982. “a test for allocative efficiency in the local public sector.” journal of public economics 19:311–321. brunner, eric j., and jon sonstelie. 2006. “california’s school finance reform: an experiment in fiscal federalism,” in the tiebout model at fifty, ed. william a. fischel. cambridge, ma: lincoln institute of land policy. davey, monica. 2012. “north dakota considers eliminating property tax. new york times, june 11. do, a. quang, and c. f. sirmans. 1994. “residential property tax capitalization: discount rate evidence from california.” national tax journal 57:341–348. fischel, william a. 1989. “did serrano cause proposition 13?” national tax journal 42:465–474. ———. 2001. the homevoter hypothesis: how home values influence local government taxation, school finance, and land-use policies. cambridge, ma: harvard university press. ———. 2002. “school finance litigation and property tax revolts: how undermining local control turns voters away from public education,” in developments in school finance, 1999–2000 (nces 2002–316.), ed. william j. fowler. jr. washington, dc: national center for education statistics. goldin, claudia, and lawrence katz. 2008. the race between education and technology. cambridge: harvard university press. hall, joshua. 2007. “local school finance and productive efficiency: evidence from ohio.” atlantic economic journal 35:289–301. hilber, christian a. l., and christopher mayer. 2009. “why do households without children support local public schools? linking house price capitalization to school spending.” journal of urban economics 65:74–90. hoxby, caroline m. 1999. “the productivity of schools and other local public goods producers.” journal of public economics 74:1–30. husted, thomas a., and lawrence w. kenny. 2000. “evidence on the impact of state government on primary and secondary education and the equity-efficiency trade-off.” journal of law and economics 43:285–308. kurban, haydar, ryan m. gallagher, and joseph j. persky. 2012. “estimating local redistribution through property-tax-funded public school systems.” national tax journal 65:629–652. oates, wallace e. 1969. “the effects of property taxes and local public spending on property values: an empirical study of tax capitalization and the tiebout hypothesis.” journal of political economy 77:957–971. o’sullivan, arthur, terri a. sexton, and steven m. sheffrin. 1995. property taxes and tax revolts: the legacy of proposition 13. new york: cambridge university press. sokolow, alvin d. 1998. “the changing property tax and state-local relations.” publius: the journal of federalism 28 (1): 165–187. sonstelie, jon c., and paul r. portney. 1980. “take the money and run: a theory of voting in local referenda.” journal of urban economics 8:187–195. book 1.indb commonwealth forum: should pennsylvania adopt early voting? yes pennsylvania has some of the most restrictive voting laws in the country. voters must register at least one month in advance of a primary or general election. in addition, voters must register with a party in order to participate in primaries. voting takes place during a thirteen-hour window for one day each spring and fall and must be done at the voter’s assigned precinct. if a citizen wants to cast a vote but cannot do so in person, an absentee ballot requires an excuse. such restrictions are clearly the result of lawmakers looking to make voting harder and constrict the size of the electorate. just thirteen states have such obstructive barriers in place to keep voters from the polls. thirty-seven states and the district of columbia allow voters to cast ballots earlier, either through the mail or at designated early voting places. some states even allow voters to permanently add themselves to an absentee voter list, where ballots are then mailed every election, no excuse required. three states mail ballots to every eligible voter, making voting as easy as filling out a form and dropping it in the mail whenever it is convenient. the average time for early voting before an election is twenty-two days. this gives citizens plenty of time to cast their votes without the demands of work, family, school, or unpredictable matters in life preventing the exercise of a fundamental right. but access to early voting is about a lot more than making voting more convenient. early voting gives those with less flexible schedules, generally people working hourly jobs for less pay, and those with less reliable transportation, generally the poor, greater ability to participate in democracy and have their voices heard. lawmakers in pennsylvania should enact early voting out of a concern for better democratic representation and stop fearing the results. no the 2016 presidential election was held on november 8. if you lived in minnesota, new jersey, south dakota, or vermont, you could have voted before any of the three presidential debates between donald trump and hillary clinton. these four states allow early voting at least forty-five days before an election. imagine that. people could actually cast votes before being able to compare the candidates’ ideas and temperaments in the highest pressure political events of the election season. for all of the other states that allow early voting, think of what else might happen after a person casts her vote. candidates might be accused of crimes or could cast objectionable votes as public officials, or a new crisis might occur without the voter knowing how the candidates would react. early voting also allows special interests to use their deep pockets to influence elections. publicly available lists of people who have not yet voted can be used to mobilize people beholden to the cause of single-issue groups. remember, when they canvas people to get out the vote, it is not an effort to encourage everyone to exercise their right to the franchise. it is an attempt to get voters to support their cause. finally, there is no definitive evidence that early voting actually increases turnout. given all of these drawbacks, why not stick with pennsylvania’s current system? let’s have a period of debate and discussion about candidates and then all vote on the same day with the same information. for more information the early voting information center (https:// blogs .reed .edu/ earlyvoting) is a nonpartisan research center located at reed college in portland, oregon. they conduct research on early voting and election reform. the league of women voters (https:// www .lwv .org) is a nonpartisan organization that provides information on registering to vote, where to vote, and ballot information. the pennsylvania department of state (https:// www .dos .pa .gov) allows citizens of pennsylvania to register online, check their voter registration status, and find polling places, and provides much more information about elections. the u.s. vote foundation (https:// www .usvotefoundation .org) aims to provide citizens with easy access to voting information and laws in their respective states. from pennsylvania politics and policy: a commonwealth reader, volume 2. edited by michelle j. atherton and j. wesley leckrone (philadelphia, temple university press, 2019). forgotten but not gone commonwealth, volume 20, issue 1 (2018). © 2018 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/com.v20i2-3.189. all rights reserved. forgotten but not gone the impact of the opioid epidemic and other substance use disorders on families and children dennis c. daley university of pittsburgh medical center, university of pittsburgh school of medicine, department of psychiatry erin smith british columbia children’s hospital, british columbia women’s hospital daniel balogh university of pittsburgh medical center jodi toscolani university of pittsburgh medical center this article discusses the impact of the opioid epidemic and other substance use disorders (suds) on families and their members, including children. we review factors contributing to this major public health and safety problem, current trends in opioid and other substance use and misuse, prevalence of opioid use disorders (ouds) and other suds, and interventions to help families. sources of information for this article include research, clinical and recovery literature, government reports, experiences of the two senior authors in clinical settings, and interviews and surveys of family members affected by a loved one’s sud. the opioid epidemic and other substance use disorders america is in the throes of an opioid epidemic as a result of the rapid rise in individuals who misuse opioids or develop an opioid use disorder (oud) and become addicted to prescription opioids used to 94 dennis c. daley, erin smith, daniel balogh, and jodi toscolani treat pain, or to illicit opioids like heroin or fentanyl (acap 2017; cicero, ellis, and suratt 2015; frank and pollack 2017; koh 2015; schuckit 2016). this epidemic has led to a substantial increase in the number of overdose deaths from opioids and other drugs and a fivefold increase in babies of opioid addicted mothers born with neonatal abstinence syndrome (alexander 2015; dart et al. 2015; jansson and velez 2010; jones et al. 2010; samhsa 2016). in addition to ouds, other substance misuse and suds have an impact on individuals and families and contribute to or exacerbate medical, psychiatric, family, social, and legal problems (berry et al. 2013; compton 2015; daley and douaihy 2017; douaihy and daley 2013, 2017; friedman 2013; kendler et al. 2016; schuckit 2016; soyka 2017; volkow et al. 2014). these problems present challenges to medical, social service, and criminal justice systems, and highlight the need for services and interventions to help families affected by suds. media attention and national dialogue on the opioid epidemic has increased in recent years. the focus, however, has primarily been on overdose statistics, causes, and political discourse about the best course of action for this problem. while many reports and papers detail interventions to help individuals with suds, limited attention is given to the support that families and children need to help them cope with a loved one’s sud and the impact it has on their lives. current trends in opioid and other substance use, misuse, and suds a recent national survey on drug use and health published by the substance abuse and mental health services administration (samhsa 2016) shows that over 119 million people ages 12 or older used prescription drugs with addiction potential during 2015 (see figure 1), and nearly 19 million misused these drugs. figure 1. numbers of past-year prescription psychotherapeutic drug users among people aged 12 or older in 2015. (samhsa, national survey on drug use and health, substance abuse and mental health services administration 2016.) forgotten but not gone 95 many users get these drugs from family, friends, or dealers and not from a physician. this samhsa survey also found that in the past month over 27 million used illicit drugs (see figure 2), and over 64 million used tobacco products. the latter contributes to nearly 500,000 deaths per year as mortality rates are three times higher among smokers compared to nonsmokers (cdc 2017). this samhsa survey also found (see figure 3) high rates of alcohol use, binge drinking (four or more drinks per occasion for a woman, or five or more for a man) or heavy drinking (multiple binge episodes). even a single episode of binge or heavy drinking can lead to a serious or fatal accident or injury. figure 2. numbers of past-month illicit drug users among people aged 12 or older in 2015. (samhsa, national survey on drug use and health, substance abuse and mental health services administration 2016.) figure 3. number of alcohol users, binge drinkers, and heavy drinkers. (samhsa, national survey on drug use and health, substance abuse and mental health services administration 2016.) 96 dennis c. daley, erin smith, daniel balogh, and jodi toscolani findings from the national epidemiologic survey on alcohol and related conditions found increases in alcohol use, highrisk drinking, and alcohol use disorders (auds) from 2001 through 2013. alcohol use increased among the total adult population from 65.4% to 72.7%, highrisk drinking increased from 9.7% to 12.6% of the population, and alcohol use disorders increased from 8.5% to 12.7% of the population (grant et al. 2017). most alarming was the significant increase among women whose drinking behavior rose by 57.9% for heavy drinking and by 83.7% for auds. the samhsa study also found that nearly 21 million or 7.8% of the population had a substance use disorder (sud) in the past year. this includes 15.7 million with an alcohol use disorder, 7.7 million with an illicit drug use disorder, 4 million with a cannabis use disorder, 2.6 million with a prescription or illegal opioid use disorder, and over 2 million with a stimulant use disorder (cocaine, methamphetamine, prescription stimulants). these are rates of suds among individuals in the community. rates of these disorders in medical, psychiatric, addiction, and criminal justice systems are much higher. numerous individuals have more than one type of sud. in addition, epidemiologic and clinical studies show that many individuals with an sud also have a coexisting psychiatric disorder (daley and thase 2004; kelly and daley 2013; kessler et al. 1997; samhsa 2016; regier 1990). an unfortunate reality is that the large majority of those with an sud never receive treatment. the samhsa study found that only 11.5% of individuals with an sud received treatment and less than 2% with an sud thought they needed it (samhsa 2015a). a report by columbia university found similar low rates of engagement in services for suds with nearly half of referrals coming from the criminal justice system (casa 2012). this speaks to the importance of the legal system intervening to engage more individuals with an sud in treatment, and to divert individuals from incarceration to treatment when appropriate. in fact, if it were not for legal pressure to get help, many with an sud would deteriorate even more, and families would experience more frustration and worry. individuals with suds who received help for their problem while in jail or prison had better outcomes compared to those who did not receive this help (freudenberg and heller 2016). current trends in treatment of suds affecting the family as expected, families are concerned with the low rates of treatment entry as well as the barriers and limitations of treatment systems, such as lack of quick and easy access to treatment when their loved one agrees to get help for the sud, barriers to medicationassisted treatment (mat) for opioid addiction, forgotten but not gone 97 limited professional care to support longterm recovery after a rehabilitation program, limits to funding to pay for certain types of treatment, and limited or lack of services for families when their loved one is in treatment or refuses treatment. rural areas often lack adequate treatment services, which presents another barrier to treatment (van gundy 2006). factors contributing to the low rate of treatment utilization include lack of awareness of the sud by the affected person, minimizing the severity of the sud and need for treatment, low level of motivation to accept help, and being controlled by addictive drugs. once an individual is addicted to an opioid drug and uses regularly, the brain’s reward center becomes hijacked. repeated use of the drug is associated with environmental stimuli or “cues” that can trigger strong cravings even after a period of being drug free. drug use becomes more reinforcing than ordinary healthy rewards associated with food, sex, relationships, accomplishments, or other positive experiences in life (volkow and fowler 2000; volkow, koob, and mclellan 2016). in addition, executive processes in the prefrontal area of the brain may become seriously impaired so that the individual becomes less able to control desires to use and is more prone to making unhealthy or impulsive decisions. understanding some of the basic neurobiology of addiction may help families become more understanding, patient, and tolerant of the member who struggles with initiating or sustaining recovery following an episode of treatment. an important point for families to understand is that even addicted people who are motivated to change can be overwhelmed with the intensity of a drug craving triggered by positive memories or environmental cues (specific people, places, or objects such as needles, drug paraphernalia, pipes, pills, liquor bottles). this may also help some families understand the importance of medicationassisted treatment (mat) for addiction to opioids or alcohol to reduce the intensity of opioid or alcohol cravings. when cravings are controlled, the person with the sud is more able to use coping skills to manage the other challenges of recovery. individuals with suds are more likely to enter treatment as a result of a mandate or pressure from the legal system, an employer, or the family. it is common for these individuals to have external motivation initially. as a result of the opioid epidemic, more individuals with an oud are now receiving professional help, although rates of treatment entry are still too low. most resources to pay for treatment cover the “acute phase” of care in a residential rehabilitation, partial hospital, or intensive outpatient program rather than “long-te rm” care in outpatient settings. some families have been encouraged by the recent increase in the use of mats for ouds, which are associated with positive outcomes (baser, chalk, fiellin, and gastfriend 2011; baser, chalk, rawson, and gastfriend 98 dennis c. daley, erin smith, daniel balogh, and jodi toscolani 2011; mccarty et al. 2010). more medical providers are now offering mat to patients with ouds in primary care practices, hospitals, or other medical or psychiatric practices (liebschutz, crooks, and herman 2014; stine and kosten 2014; weiss et al. 2015). all states have approved naloxone access laws in recent years. this has resulted in more drug overdoses being reversed by first responders, other drug users, and family members. this provides some relief to families who worry about the possibility of death from an overdose for their loved one. our family survey found that families’ greatest fear was the possible death of their loved one from overdose (ward and daley 2014). factors that mediate the impact of suds on the family not all families or members within a family are affected in the same way by a member’s sud. however, these disorders often create ripple effects through the family. countless lives are irrevocably altered in the “collateral damage” caused by an sud. the burden of living with an sud falls far beyond a single person. commonly, many affected families suffer in silence, ashamed and unsupported, with limited access to services that address their needs. the effects can be felt even years after living with a family member who has an sud (ackerman 1987, 2002). severity of the sud factors that mediate the impact of suds on families and individual members include substances used (amount, type, frequency of substance use), methods of administration, severity and duration of the member’s sud, behaviors of this individual, and whether a cooccurring mental health or medical disorder is present (daley and miller 2001). for example, a family with an unemployed parent who has a severe drug addiction requiring daily multiple injections of heroin will experience different worries and stressors than a family who has a member with a moderate alcohol use disorder who is able to work. a family exposed to chronic alcohol dependence, with erratic behavior including violence during periods of intoxication, will be affected differently than a family whose member is addicted to prescription sedatives but does not evidence poor selfcontrol or violent behaviors toward family members. loss of a family member suds can lead to loss by separation, divorce, incarceration, death, or loss of role functioning as a parent. parents and spouses can attest that losing a loved forgotten but not gone 99 one to a drug overdose or accident caused by alcohol intoxication elicits a different reaction than death from cancer. one mother found her 20yearold daughter unresponsive due to a drug overdose “in the same room where we had tea parties, bedtime stories, slumber parties, and motherdaughter nights with snapchats and long talks” (schwartzmier 2017). this overdose occurred a day before this young woman was to enter a rehab program for her addiction. a couple lost their son after he got drunk and died as a result of a head trauma from falling 30 feet and hitting his head on a hard surface (gaines 2011). some families who do not have a member with an sud lose a loved one as a result of accidents caused by intoxication of a stranger, or gun violence. families have lost loved ones as a result of drunk/drugged driving accidents or accidental shooting. one woman lost her mother and young daughter at the same time when they were struck by a drunk driver. another lost a teenage son to random violence associated with a conflict over drugs. while data and study results can identify the prevalence of problems and specific effects on individuals, no data can convey the extent of the emotional pain and heartache experienced by family members who lose a loved one as a result of a drug overdose, accident, medical complication, or murder. impact on health intense and persistent emotions caused by the loss of a loved one to an addiction can affect the physical and mental health of family members. a range of emotions is experienced as the family member tries to understand and make sense of what happened, and why it happened (white 2014). one mother stated, “i was sad, angry, in denial, depressed, crazy, panic stricken, any or all of these feelings in one day, sometimes in one hour, one minute” (daley 2017a). many had difficulty sleeping, lost their appetite, had to force themselves to get out of bed, and had to push themselves to take care of other children or go to work. some felt so despondent that they wished they would die. those parents who have lost a child to overdose are more likely to succumb to grief, depression, post-t raumaticstress disorder, or other mental health problems compared to those who have lost a child to accidents or natural death (yule, wilens, and rauch 2017). family members whose loved one is in treatment may worry about the possibility of relapse, particularly if this member has a history of multiple treatment episodes followed by relapse. some family members experience adverse effects even years after exposure to an sud, regardless of whether their loved one established sobriety. 100 dennis c. daley, erin smith, daniel balogh, and jodi toscolani the impact of substance use disorders on the family and members it is estimated that 20% or more of the population has a family member with an sud (liepman et al. 2014; minear and zuckerman 2013; smith and daley 2017), which means that these disorders have an impact on a large number of families. many studies and reports have documented negative effects on family, marital, financial, and emotional stability; on parental competence; on how the family functions within and outside of the family; and on the physical and mental health of individual members (lander, howsare, and byrne 2013; ward and daley 2014; weisner 2010; white and savage 2005; young et al. 2015). family cohesion and communication are affected, and it is common for the sud to be a major focus of the family. parenting behaviors are affected. fathers with an sud may be absent or unable to provide nurturing to children that is needed for healthy child development (mcmahon 2013). physical, sexual, or emotional abuse may occur as a result of intoxication or poor judgment associated with an sud. behavior such as threatening family members, lying, manipulation, failed promises, and using family income for drugs harms the family and creates insecurity (white and daley 2016). the individual with an sud may have no memory of exhibiting violent or hurtful behavior or may deny that this occurred, which can confuse or damage the victim. divorce or separation due to marital strife, incarceration, and repeated admissions to hospitals or rehabilitation centers can also occur and upset the stability of the family. an sud may have lead to a disruption of family roles, such as grandparents raising grandchildren, or teenagers caring for younger siblings. it is common for families to experience the loss of a loved one during the active phase of an sud because the affected member is controlled by substances, and often does not function as a responsible parent or family member. this can have an impact on family stability, cohesion, and communication. communication breakdown can lead to secrecy, confusion, embarrassment, and chaos in the family. family members may feel helpless, hopeless, cheated, ashamed, worried, angry, depressed, anxious, and demoralized (liepman et al. 2014; wallace 2014). the emotional burden can be quite high, and some family members need professional help for clinical depression or an anxiety disorder. anger, frustration, and a profound sense of helplessness contribute to conflict and division between spouses, among siblings, and in the parentchild relationship. some family members feel so upset that they cut ties with the member forgotten but not gone 101 who has the sud. in a quality improvement study of outpatients conducted by one of the senior authors, 91% of patients reported that they created an emotional burden on their family causing anger, fear, and mistrust (daley and moss 2002). families lose the feeling of safety if the member with the sud is violent, suicidal, or unpredictable. trust can be lost when a parent does not function as a responsible adult. children may not get the consistency, love, nurturing, or mentoring needed to help them cope with life (daley and tarter 2017; mcmahon 2013). or, they may be removed from the home as a result of problems caused by parental substance use. rates of removal from the home in families with a member with an sud from 2000 (18.5%) through 2015 (34.4%) have almost doubled (daley 2017b). in the quality improvement study mentioned previously, 37% of patients with children reported that they either had relatives take care of their children or had them removed by child welfare (daley and moss 2002). families who experience poverty or a financial burden may feel insecure or fall into debt due to unemployment, underemployment, misuse of family financial resources, or paying for legal or treatment fees that the family can hardly afford. some parents borrow large sums of money, take out second mortgages, or withdraw money from retirement accounts to pay for treatment for the affected member. another type of loss occurs when a parent or other family member with the sud is incarcerated. suds contribute to a broad range of behaviors leading to involvement in the criminal justice system (freudenberg and heller 2016). a parent or other family member sent to prison creates stresses for the family. a mother that one of the authors worked with lost her addicted son when he went to prison for manslaughter following an incident in which he shot and killed another man while fighting over a drug debt. her son going to prison was a significant factor in a worsening of her clinical depression. losing an adolescent or young adult child shatters the parent’s, grandparent’s, and sibling’s worlds, and changes their perspective. this can affect their emotional stability, relationships, and how they function. a parent may feel guilty and wonder if he or she could have done anything differently to prevent the death of their child. losing a sibling is painful for brothers or sisters left behind. while most of this discussion is on the impact of suds on the family, members are also affected by the impact of treatment and recovery, both in positive and negative ways. initially, families often feel relieved when their loved one enters treatment, especially if they are provided an opportunity to share their experiences, express their concerns, and learn coping strategies. families 102 dennis c. daley, erin smith, daniel balogh, and jodi toscolani develop hope for positive change as they learn about effective treatments and the potential positive impact on their affected member and their family unit. however, families not invited to participate in treatment may feel resentful and feel left behind as the member with the sud receives help and attention from professionals and others in recovery. while the behavior associated with an sud during active addiction often upsets the family, so can behavior during recovery. some family members, for example, complained that their loved one was absent during the active phase of addiction as well as during recovery as a result of attending meetings and focusing most of their efforts on recovery from addiction. while it is critical for the member with the sud to prioritize recovery, this must be done in a way that the family is not excluded, forgotten, or ignored. in addition, roles in the family can change as a result of recovery, as in the case of a father becoming more active in raising children after limited involvement during his addiction. the nonaddicted spouse may find it hard to adapt to sharing the power of parenthood. this is just one example of how family dynamics can be affected by a positive event such as a member with an sud engaging in treatment and recovery. positive coping and resilience of family members individuals and families affected by addiction are some of society’s most resilient members. family members may bond more closely together. some use their experiences for motivation to work hard and be successful. others use their experiences to educate, support, or help others affected by an sud (see resource section later in this article for examples of organizations in which family members in recovery play a significant role in helping others). protective factors that help offset some of the negative effects of an sud on members include the use of positive psychological coping mechanisms, social skills, and positive connections with parents, other relatives, teachers, or other adults (ackerman 1987; daley and miller 2001). the effects of substance use disorders on children children are affected by suds, yet receive little mention in the national dialogue and policy (orford et al. 2013; white and daley 2016). denniston reviewed the 2016 surgeon general’s report on alcohol, drugs and health and stated that while this report is comprehensive and informative in many ways, it “neglected to include children of addiction” (denniston 2017, 10). one of the authors of this article (dd) reviewed the indexes of the three major textbooks on addiction and the titles of 136 studies funded by the national institute on alcohol abuse and alcoholism (niaaa) and 448 studies funded by the forgotten but not gone 103 national institute on drug abuse (nida) and found that only 4% of the total pages in the textbooks focused on issues related to families or children, and only about 2% of the studies included anything about the family or children in the titles of the research grants. the impact of suds on children is variable, but the increased risk for a range of problems is well documented. adverse effects are greater when both parents have an sud, as these disorders impede parenting and the ability to provide a nurturing environment for children (barnard and mckeganey 2004; conners et al. 2004; solis et al. 2012). multiple studies and reports show that children of parents with suds are at increased risk for: abuse or neglect, leading to involvement in the child welfare system; physical health problems; social skill deficits; emotional or psychiatric problems such as anxiety, depression, or low selfesteem; behavioral problems such as oppositional behaviors; and academic problems such as lower grade point averages, increased grade retention, or failure to pursue secondary education (andreasburdzovic and o’farell 2007; barnard and mckegany 2004; daley 2017b; kirisci, vanyukov, and tarter 2005; solis et al. 2012; salo and flykt 2013; moss et al. 1995; smith and daley 2017; tartar et al. 1995; 2004; young et al. 2015). nunes conducted two pivotal studies collecting data about the children of opioidaddicted patients who were enrolled in a methadone clinic (nunes et al. 2000). this implied current stability in their addiction, yet also suggested a chronic and severe course in order to qualify for treatment with methadone. one study analyzed information from evaluations of 283 children, ages 6–17, from diverse ethnic backgrounds. results showed that this age group was an atrisk population for psychiatric problems including mood disorders (20%), anxiety disorders (24%), behavioral disorders (30%), academic problems (37%), and general global impairment in their daytoday functioning (25%). nunes’ studies replicated the findings of earlier studies of children whose parents had opioid, cocaine, or alcohol use disorders that showed that children were at increased risk for a variety of problems. suds interfere with providing a consistent environment for children that is crucial for normal child development (suchman, pajalo, and mayes 2013). a mother’s addiction can lead to attachment problems in the child as a result of the mother being less attentive and engaged during interactions with her infant (salo and flykt 2013). this can lead to problems during childhood and influence adult relationships later in life. suds among pregnant mothers are associated with medical complications during pregnancy and delivery including premature birth, fetal alcohol syndrome disorders, or neonatal abstinence syndrome among babies born to women addicted to opioid drugs (committee on obstetric practice 2017; 104 dennis c. daley, erin smith, daniel balogh, and jodi toscolani jansson and velez 2010; kraft et al. 2017; niaaa 2017; viteri et al. 2015). children born to addicted mothers are also at increased risk for developmental and psychological problems. while most of the research has been on babies born to mothers with opioid or alcohol dependence, cigarette smoking and other drug use including marijuana, cocaine, and methamphetamine can contribute to a miscarriage or have an adverse effect on fetal growth, birth weight, asthma, and sudden infant death syndrome (suchman, pajalo, and mayes 2013). help for families and children families benefit from professional guidance in addressing the sud (copello, velleman, and templeton 2005; kaufman and yoshioka 2004; liepman et al. 2014). families can facilitate their affected member’s involvement in treatment; attend sessions together to address the sud and recovery needs; engage in discussions about addiction, treatment, and recovery, the impact on the member and family unit, and what can and cannot be done to help the member with the sud; point out early warning signs of relapse that their loved one may ignore; and help them stabilize from a relapse should one occur. families can help themselves by discussing their experiences with the member with the sud, examining and changing their own behaviors and emotional reactions, and examining ways to make changes within the family system. any of these changes can be accomplished by involvement in treatment and/or mutual support programs. while family members often enter treatment and/or mutual support programs initially to help their loved one, they often discover that they need emotional support and help to deal with the impact of the sud on their behaviors and emotional health. professional interventions usually fall into one of three categories: (1) those oriented toward helping the family influence the member with the sud to enter treatment; (2) those in which family members engage in treatment with the member who has the sud in education groups, multifamily groups, individual family, or couples therapy sessions; and (3) those that help family members address their own concerns, problems, and emotions without the member with the sud engaging in these sessions (templeton, velleman, and russell 2010). in addition, there are limited services available to help children affected by sud in their family. interventions to help family members engage their loved one in treatment the initial push to engage family members with suds in treatment is often a result of intervention by the legal system, employers, or their families. family forgotten but not gone 105 and couples or marital approaches significantly improve treatment engagement and retention rates (klosterman and o’farrell 2013; landau et al. 2000; samhsa 2009; szapocznik et al. 2013). several approaches focus mainly on helping the family or social network develop strategies to influence their loved one with an sud to engage in treatment. these strategies include “joining” the family, eliciting family strengths, reviewing previously attempted engagement strategies, determining alliances within the family, and identifying options to influence and engage the member with the sud in treatment. family treatments may also focus on communication and encourage families to change the way they interact with their loved one as a strategy to influence treatment engagement. research shows that these family approaches lead to significantly higher treatment engagement rates compared to treatment as usual, with 64%–93% of members with an sud engaging in treatment compared to 25% who receive usual care and not the specialized intervention (landau et al. 2000; szapocznik, hervis, and schwartz 2003). interventions for couples and families there are multiple family and couples approaches to treatment. some focus mainly on families with an adolescent member, while others focus on families in which an adult member has the sud. family sessions may focus on strategies to stop or reduce substance use and identify adverse consequences of substance use on the individual and family. other strategies may focus on how to improve motivation to change; family communication and parental behaviors; how to reduce conflict; ways to increase positive reinforcement by rewarding behavior changes; how to stop violence; or how to identify and manage triggers for relapse. family sessions may also focus on problems specific to a given family. in addition, approaches for adolescents may focus on improving parent adolescent interactions, improving school attendance and academic performance, and reducing behavioral or delinquency problems or highrisk sexual behaviors (nida 2012; szapocznik, hervis, and schwartz 2003). results of multiple studies show that these approaches lead to improvements for the member with the sud and for other family members (nida 2012; klosterman and o’farrell 2013; meyers and wolfe 2004; stanton and shadish 1997). treatment provided to spouses and partners is effective in helping the member with the sud achieve abstinence or reduce substance use or relapses after a period of sobriety. couplebased therapy improves the relationship and supports recovery for both partners. developing a “recovery contract” is a central component, with “daily rituals” that the couple engages in to reward 106 dennis c. daley, erin smith, daniel balogh, and jodi toscolani continued abstinence. therapy emphasizes communication and reintroduction of positive experiences, which are often lost when one partner is in active addiction (klosterman and o’farrell 2013). a key part of any discussion with families must include knowledge that effective treatments for ouds and other suds exist and that people do get better; many who respond to treatment go on to lead productive and fulfilling lives. another key understanding for families is that there are no shortterm answers or treatments for suds. although their loved one may prefer limited involvement in treatment, longterm involvement is usually needed to sustain changes and reduce relapse risk. with ouds, families need to learn that mats with methadone or buprenorphine are effective treatments, and that they are used in combination with addiction counseling (kmiec, cornelius, and douaihy 2013; stine and kosten 2014). families sometimes are resistant to the idea of a loved one using another drug to replace heroin or an addictive prescription drug. however, recovery rates are superior when a person with an oud receives mat. medications can also aid recovery from alcohol dependence, so families should gain an understanding of this mat (myrick et al. 2014; samhsa 2015b). addiction is often described as a chronic relapsing and remitting disease, and families sometimes feel hopeless and helpless when their loved one relapses. helping to prepare individuals and their families for the reality of a relapse is a key part of recovery. families may become more realistic and feel more hopeful when they learn that relapses are common, that they can influence the member with the sud to change their treatment plan if a relapse occurs, and that an actual relapse can be stopped and the damage minimized if the member with the sud or the family takes quick action (daley and douaihy 2015; marlatt and donovan 2005). given the significant increase in drug overdoses, families benefit from learning how to use naloxone to reverse overdose and how to participate in drug takeback programs, in which unused opioid medications can be removed from the home to reduce future misuse. access to the drug naloxone at home may help reduce the fear that families often have about losing a loved one from a drug overdose. in a study conducted by the massachusetts department of public health, members who received both overdose education and a naloxone rescue kit felt that they could respond to an overdose and save the life of a loved one if needed (bagley et al. 2017). interventions for individual family members some family approaches help members improve their coping skills and enrich their lives as they become more confident and able to deal with their loved forgotten but not gone 107 one’s sud and change their own behaviors and emotional reactions. even if the family member with the sud refuses help and does not engage in treatment, other family members still can benefit from treatment. family members can make positive changes and decrease undesirable behaviors that are not helpful to the person with the sud, such as not arguing, nagging, or confronting this person in a hostile manner (meyers and wolfe 2004). parents can increase their parental competencies and skills (daley 2017b). in some instances, family members may need help for their own substance use, a mental health problem, or other problem. some family approaches offer individual sessions for these family members. in other instances, family members benefit from a referral to a psychiatrist, psychologist, or counselor, depending on the nature of their current problems. similarly, children who have substance use, mental health, academic, or behavioral problems may benefit from a mental health evaluation and treatment provided in the school system or community. mutual support programs for families another helpful intervention, which may be used independently of treatment or may result from the encouragement of a professional, is engaging in a mutual support program (msp) such as alanon, naranon, or alateen (al-a non family groups 1981, 1984). while these programs are available throughout the united states, some family msps are specific to local communities. msps can help families become educated about suds and the impact they have on the affected person, the family system, and individual family members. they receive support and guidance from others who have learned to cope with addiction in their families. they learn about recovery and how to take steps to manage their own lives and to become less obsessed with the member who has the sud. family members who embrace the program espoused by msps and engage in their own recovery may make changes that enhance their health and well being such as the following: • accept that they cannot make the member with the sud change • reduce their preoccupation with the member with the sud so this is not the central focus of their lives • stop unhelpful behaviors such as covering up, or bailing the member with the sud out of trouble • talk about their own behaviors and emotions with other adults to get help and support, and learn from their experiences 108 dennis c. daley, erin smith, daniel balogh, and jodi toscolani • move toward forgiveness of the member with the sud • decrease selfblame for the problem • build on their strengths • focus more attention and energy on nonaddicted family members • keep up friendships and stay active in family, community, or religious activities • other changes that may be unique to a specific person (daley and douaihy 2010) some family members “give back” by mentoring or sponsoring other family members new in recovery. others develop professional services in the community, such as a mother who opened up programs offering intensive outpatient and mats to individuals with suds, and services to their families (daley 2017b). there are many instances of family members organizing msps in their communities. helping children in the family professional treatment and/or participation in msps may also help parents engage their children in discussions of the problem to help them better understand the sud (daley and douaihy 2010; moe 2007). some children may attend treatment sessions and msps depending on whether these services are available to them. children benefit from sharing their experiences and feelings, having their feelings validated, and learning new coping strategies to manage their reactions to a parent’s sud. in some instances, a child may need professional help for a mental health, substance use, behavior, or academic problem. policy implications there is a need for everyone concerned about or involved with ouds and other suds to understand that these disorders are not limited to affected individuals. clearly, these problems often have profound and longlasting adverse effects on families and their members, including children. this includes medical, social service, criminal justice, legal, and religious professionals who often encounter individuals or families. legislators and policymakers who develop legislation and fund treatment for suds need to include the family in their efforts to address sud in the community. failure to do so will only add to the family burden and convey the message that addiction is an individual and not a family problem. forgotten but not gone 109 families and children can be helped indirectly if the member with the sud receives help, engages in a recovery program, puts his or her life back together, and functions as a responsible member of the family and community. when possible, it is beneficial for families to be involved in educational, support, and treatment services to help them understand suds, what they can and cannot do to help their loved one and their family, and how they can address any of the consequences of the sud on their family or its members. treatment programs that exclude families do them a disservice. table 1 summarizes ideas adapted from a recent article that a colleague and one of the authors (dd) wrote about the impact of the opioid epidemic on families and children, as well as additional ideas about policies to help table 1. summary table of policy implications 1. support for the extended family. the concerns, problems, and needs of family members affected by suds need to be heard, understood, and accepted by anyone involved in planning, providing, or funding services for suds. this should include not just family members who may live with the person with the sud, but others who are affected. for example, grandparents are often affected when their adult son or daughter with one or more children struggles with an oud or other sud and is unable to establish or sustain recovery. some grandparents become primary caretakers of young children, which can create an emotional and financial burden. while grandparents care about their grandchildren, most did not plan to be surrogate parents to their grandchildren. 2. the importance of a family-based approach. considering the family perspective holds true whether these services are offered in licensed addiction programs, medical settings such as emergency rooms, medical or psychiatric hospitals, primary care and other specialty practices, or prisons and jails. even if a professional never sees a family due to the nature of services offered (e.g., in a prison or jail), services can address the impact of suds on the family and what may help them so that the person with the sud has a better understanding of the family nature of this disorder as well as community services for families. 3. family education and support. family education and support programs should be integrated in organizations or programs offering sud treatment and recovery support services. family education can include information on: the causes, effects, and symptoms of suds; the neurobiology of addiction (promoting it as a brain disease); treatment and recovery options including medications for opioid, alcohol, or nicotine addiction; the prospects of long-term recovery from suds; causes of relapse and strategies to reduce relapse risk; the diversity of pathways of recovery; the role of social support; types and functions of mutual support programs for suds and families; the effects of opioid and other suds on the family and family members including children; and the commonly experienced stages of family recovery. families need to understand that there are no short-term solutions to suds, and that long-term involvement in treatment and/or recovery increases the chances of sustaining changes over time. we have heard family members express relief when their loved one entered a rehabilitation program without realizing that this is only the beginning of recovery and must be followed with ongoing care. (continued on next page) 110 dennis c. daley, erin smith, daniel balogh, and jodi toscolani families and children (white and daley 2016). these ideas are relevant to other suds, as opioid problems are just one type of substance problem that affects our communities. help for families through the legal and criminal justice systems the health of criminal justice populations can be improved through improved integration of services, and making changes in the system to coordinate and/ or provide evidencebased services for suds and mental health disorders (freudenberg and heller 2016). other ways for legal and criminal justice systems to help individuals and families include the following. legal means use legal means to pressure the member with the sud to engage and participate in treatment. encouraging accountability to the legal system by table 1 (continued) 4. counseling services. when possible, counseling services should be offered to families and individual members, including children and siblings, to help them deal with the impact of the sud on family life and on the health and functioning of individual members. many addiction programs offer family education but not counseling services. few offer services to children, perhaps assuming that parents involved in treatment will help their children deal with the sud. 5. education. education about and linkages to peer-based family mutual support programs should be provided. some family programs use volunteers in recovery to help new members engage in msps. 6. volunteers. family members in recovery who have made healthy adjustments to the sud and have learned to cope with their own reactions can serve as volunteers when possible to help families new to the process. they may be part of, or independent of, msps or professional treatment programs. 7. grief services. too many families lose a loved one to death from an overdose; medical complications of an alcohol, drug, or tobacco addiction; accidents; suicides; or homicides. services should be offered to help families share their stories and deal with these losses. grief groups, if available, can serve as an excellent resource to these family members (daley 2017a). 8. family-oriented care. family-oriented care within treatment programs spans the functions of assessment; treatment and recovery planning; service delivery; and posttreatment monitoring (such as recovery checkups), support, and if and when needed, early re-intervention if a relapse occurs. source: white, william, and dennis daley. 2016. “calling attention to opioid affected families and children.” william l. white blog, july 13. http://www.williamwhitepapers.com/blog/2016/07/ calling-attention-to-opioid-affected-families-and-children-william-white-and-dr-dennis-c-daley.html. accessed march 3, 2017. forgotten but not gone 111 monitoring the participation and progress of the person with the sud can provide extrinsic motivation until the person internalizes the desire to change. educational or clinical treatment in jails when feasible, offer sud educational or clinical treatment services in jails or prisons so that individuals with suds become more knowledgeable about suds, more involved in treatment and recovery, and more likely to develop a desire to continue with the services upon release from incarceration. medication-assisted treatment for those with ouds, facilitate the initiation of mat prior to release so that the person is more stable when returning to the community (lee et al. 2017). the person can also be educated about overdose potential and given naloxone or information about where to get this drug, since those who use opioids soon after release are at risk for overdose due to changes in their tolerance levels and differences in the potency of street drugs like heroin. education about risk factors educate offenders and families about the risk factors for reoffending, such as: using alcohol or drugs; breaking the law or performing antisocial acts; showing negative patterns of behavior based on personality; spending time with people who are antisocial or have no respect for the law; poor relationships and connections with others; trouble at work or school; or a lack of healthy leisure or recreational activities. on-site meetings when feasible, facilitate onsite meetings of mutual support programs such as aa, na, or smart recovery. these programs help connect people with others in recovery who can provide support during or after incarceration. many people in recovery have personal experience with the criminal justice system and can serve as mentors or positive role models for those with suds who are incarcerated. resources for families there are resources in the state of pennsylvania and across the united states that provide information and support for those affected by suds, but it is clear that more resources and easier access to help are needed for families affected by a loved one’s addiction. please refer to the appendix to this article for detailed information about these resources. 112 dennis c. daley, erin smith, daniel balogh, and jodi toscolani concluding remarks the opioid epidemic and other substance problems affect nearly everyone in our society, including families who experience adverse effects when a loved one has an sud. any substance problem can have an impact on a person’s physical, mental, emotional, and financial health and create a severe burden for the family. this major health, social, and safety problem cannot be effectively addressed without considering the impact of suds on families and members, including children, and including them in treatment and recovery. while addiction is promoted as a “family disease,” in reality many family members are not offered the opportunity to engage in treatment for their own health. promoting awareness of this often forgotten population and finding long term solutions to help support vulnerable families need to occur on all levels: individual, societal, and political. families and children need and deserve the utmost consideration in policies that affect how we support them. while there are familyoriented treatments and mutual support programs available to help families, we all need to do a better job educating families, connecting them with these resources, and addressing their concerns and problems. any expansion of clinical services for opioid and other addictions should include services and help for families and members, including children. appendix resources for families 1. al-anon (al-anon.org). this is a mutual support program for friends and families of individuals with alcohol problems. 2. alateen (al-anon.org/for-members/group-resources/alateen/). this is a fellowship of young al-anon members, usually teenagers, whose lives have been affected by someone else’s drinking. like al-anon, alateen provides group meetings where members share experiences and learn the principles of the al-anon program. 3. bridge to hope (bridge2hope.org/). this is a family support program in the pittsburgh area that offers education and help for families and concerned others affected by a loved one’s addiction. 4. community reinforcement approach and family training (craft) (www.robertjmeyersphd.com/craft.html). this is an approach to help families and significant others deal with a substance use problem in the family. it provides guidance on how to engage the member with the substance problem in treatment. it forgotten but not gone 113 also helps the family deal with their own reactions to a loved one and engage in their own recovery. 5. faces and voices of recovery (facesandvoicesofrecovery.org). this is an advocacy organization that provides information and support for families and those with a substance use disorder. 6. facing addiction (www.facingaddiction.org). this is an advocacy organization dedicated to finding solutions to the addiction crisis. they aim to build a national constituency, increase access to treatment, translate scientific innovation into services, advocate for governments to implement evidence-based policies, and share the proof of long-term recovery. 7. family resource center (www.familyresourcectr.org/category/ community/). this website has various resources for families to understand and address a child’s substance use. the resources can be filtered by the intended user, for example, parents of young adolescents, older teens, adult children, or teachers/community support personnel. 8. nar-anon (www.nar-anon.org/). this is a mutual support program for families affected by any type of drug problem. 9. national association of children of alcoholics (nacoa.org). this is an advocacy group that aims to eliminate the adverse impact of alcohol and drug use on children and families. their goals are to raise public awareness; provide leadership in public policy at the national, state, and local levels; inform and educate the community; disseminate information; and advocate for accessible programs and services. 10. national institute on drug abuse (nida) (www.drugabuse.gov/ patients-families). nida provides information on many topics of interest for families, including information about drugs, treatment programs, and current research initiatives. 1 1. partnership for drug-free kids (drugfree.org). this is a nonprofit organization that aims to help families struggling with their son or daughter’s substance use. they provide information, support, and guidance to families, in addition to advocating for greater understanding and more effective programs to treat addiction. they offer a helpline that helps families connect with experts. 12. sage’s army (www.sagesarmy.com). this is a nonprofit drug awareness and prevention organization in westmoreland county (western pa) that aims to offer support, guidance, and encouragement to others who have also been affected by addiction. they offer 114 dennis c. daley, erin smith, daniel balogh, and jodi toscolani monthly community meetings, presentations in the community, and information about resources available for those suffering from addiction. pennsylvania state resources these resources can help the family locate licensed alcohol and drug treatment programs in any county in the state. some include educational resources on topics related to opioid use disorders or other suds. 1. pa department of drug and alcohol programs (www.ddap.pa .gov/). this site provides information about suds, overdoses, naloxone, clinical guidelines to determine level of care needed, and treatment resources throughout the state (see “find treatment services”). 2. pa get help now (apps.ddap.pa.gov/gethelpnow/index.aspx) 1-800-662-4357. this website and helpline provide information about local resources for substance use disorders. go to “care provider search” and enter the county name or zip code of the area in which you are looking for treatment programs. this helpline can also direct you to funding alternatives for the uninsured who may not be eligible for medicaid. federal government resources these websites provide a rich array of free educational, clinical, and research resources on substance use and suds, including ouds. all include access to e-files with this information, including screening tools and treatment manuals and protocols for professionals. 1. national institute on alcohol abuse and alcoholism (niaaa) (www.niaaa.nih.gov/). this site provides information on alcohol problems, treatment, and research. it includes information for professionals, individuals with alcohol problems, and families. 2. national institute on drug abuse (nida) (www.drugabuse.gov/). this site provides information on substances, substance use disorders, opioid overdoses, treatment, and research. there are specific links with tools for brief screening of a drug problem by professionals to assess opioid risk or opioid withdrawal symptoms (e.g., forgotten but not gone 115 nida quick screen; dast-10; clinical opioid withdrawal scale; and opioid risk tool). 3. substance abuse and mental health services administration (samhsa) (www.samhsa.gov/). this site provides treatment and recovery resources and information on evidence-based practices for suds. see samhsa.gov/medication-assisted-treatment for training materials and provider resources on the use of medication for opioid addiction, and waivers for physicians, nurse practitioners, and physician assistants. see www.samhsa.gov/nrepp to access the national registry of evidencebased programs and practices (nrepp). references ackerman, robert. 1987. children of alcoholics: a guide for parents, educators, and therapists. 2nd ed. new york: simon and schuster. ———. 2002. perfect daughters: adult daughters of alcoholics. revised ed. deerfield beach, fl: health communications. alanon family groups. 1981. alateen: hope for children of alcoholics. new york: al anon family group headquarters. ———. 1984. alanon faces alcoholism. 2nd ed. new york: alanon family 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mcdermott, emily n. srisarajivakul, dorian r. dodd, jessica a. dreifuss, r. kathryn mchugh, and kathleen m. carroll. 2015. “long term outcomes from the national drug abuse treatment clinical trials network prescription opioid addiction treatment study.” drug and alcohol dependence 150 (may): 112–119. white, william l. 2014. “anticipatory grief and family recovery.” william l. white blog, january 3. available at http://www.williamwhitepapers.com/blog/2014/01/ anticipatory-grief-and-family-recovery.html. accessed march 3, 2017. white, william, and bob savage. 2005. “all in the family: alcohol and other drug problems, recovery, advocacy.” alcohol treatment quarterly 23: 3–37. white, william l., and dennis daley. 2016. “calling attention to opioidaffected families and children.” william l. white blog, july 13. available at: http://www .williamwhitepapers.com/blog/2016/07/calling-attention-to-opioid-affected familiesand-c hildren-w illiamwhiteand-d rdenniscdaley.html. accessed march 3, 2017. forgotten but not gone 121 young, john, andrea h. klinesimon, donald j. mordecai, and constance weisner. 2015. “prevalence of behavioral health disorders and associated chronic disease burden in a commercially insured health system: findings of a casecontrol study.” elsevier general hospital psychiatry 37 (march–april): 101–108. yule, amy, timothy wilens, and paula rauch. 2017. “the opioid epidemic: what is a child psychiatrist to do?” journal of the american academy of child & adolescent psychiatry 56 (july): 541–543. dennis c. daley is senior clinical director of substance use services at upmc health plan, and professor of psychiatry in the department of psychiatry at the university of pittsburgh school of medicine. he previously served as chief of addiction medicine services at western psychiatric institute and clinic. dr. daley has over 30 years of experience in clinical care, research, and teaching. he has over 350 publications, including treatment manuals, books and chapters, papers, and recovery guides for individuals with substance use disorders, and families. several of his publications have been translated to foreign languages. erin smith is a consulting psychiatrist in vancouver, canada. she works at bc children’s hospital with youth who have cooccurring disorders and at bc women’s hospital with women who are pregnant and postpartum. she completed her residency and an addictions fellowship at upmc western psychiatric institute and clinic. her professional interests include medical student and resident education, and motivational interviewing. daniel balogh is a project manager for the behavioral integration team at upmc health plan in pittsburgh, pennsylvania. he is involved with multiple initiatives addressing opioid and other substance use disorders (suds). he has coauthored several publications on suds. jodi toscolani is a project manager at the upmc health plan substance use services in the behavioral health integration division. she has an extensive background as a clinician, supervisor, program director, and educator in behavioral health services. jodi is involved in multiple projects addressing substance use problems in our community, including the opioid epidemic. structure bookmarks the opioid epidemic and other substance use disorders current trends in opioid and other substance use, misuse, and suds current trends in treatment of suds affecting the family factors that mediate the impact of suds on the family the impact of substance use disorders on the family and members positive coping and resilience of family members the effects of substance use disorders on children help for families and children policy implications resources for families concluding remarks appendix references should the philadelphia property tax classification system be modified? commonwealth, volume 20, issue 1 (2018). © 2018 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/com.v20i1.179. all rights reserved. should the philadelphia property tax classification system be modified? jeffrey carroll chestnut hill college john f. mcdonald university of illinois at chicago this article reviews issues related to proposed changes to the philadelphia taxation system. there are two proposed plans. the city plan proposes modest cuts to the wage tax and to the net income portion of the business income and receipts tax (birt). the plan proposed by the philadelphia growth coalition includes larger cuts in these taxes combined with an increase in the property tax on commercial real estate. the increase in the property tax on commercial real estate is intended to make up for losses of revenue from the tax cuts and is proposed to create a property tax classification system in which different classes of property are taxed at different rates. these proposals have been studied by econsult solutions (2015), and their findings are scrutinized in this article. also, this article includes information on the main example of a property tax classification system in cook county, illinois, as a cautionary tale. the philadelphia growth coalition has recently proposed increasing the property tax rate on commercial property in the city of philadelphia along with reductions to the wage tax and the business income and receipts tax (birt). the proposed increase is from 1.4% of property value to 1.61% of property value, to take effect in the next tax year after adoption. we calculate that, by including the business use and occupancy tax imposed by the school district of philadelphia, philadelphia already effectively imposes 40 jeffrey carroll and john f. mcdonald higher property tax on commercial real estate of 1.8% of assessed value.1 the proposed increase would result in a tax rate of 2.01% on the assessed value of commercial real estate compared to the 1.4% on assessed value of residential property. the central philadelphia development corporation commissioned a study of the proposal from econsult solutions, a local economic consulting firm. that study is examined in this article. the idea of raising the property tax rate only on commercial real estate (and not on residential real estate) caught our attention. the primary and most relevant example is the property tax classification system that has been in place in cook county, illinois, for many years. cook county is the central county in the chicago metropolitan area and contains the city of chicago as well as numerous near-in suburbs. cook county is surrounded by a set of counties, known as the “collar counties,” which do not employ a classification system. philadelphia is, of course, a separate county. in contrast to the cook county case, all municipalities outside the city of philadelphia are in other counties. this study produced five tentative conclusions. first, reducing reliance on the wage tax is a good objective and moves philadelphia closer to an optimal mix of taxes. the issue is identifying sources of revenue to replace any wage tax revenue losses. however, we would also point out that the wage tax on nonresidents is a method for taxing employers, including nonprofit institutions, that are exempt from property taxation (such as the city’s primary drivers of its economy, the “meds and eds”). second, replacement of a portion of the wage tax with an increase in the property tax on commercial real estate seems to be based on the belief that the commercial property tax base is relatively immobile (at least compared to jobs). this is not necessarily correct in the long run because an increase in the property tax rate reduces the market value of property immediately and has the long-run effect of discouraging real estate development. evidence of these points is provided by studies of cook county, illinois. third, the empirical evidence from cook county shows that the negative impact of a higher property tax on commercial property is greatest outside of the downtown area and nearer to the collar counties, where substitute real estate is readily available for tenants. this finding suggests that larger negative impacts of a property tax in philadelphia may be in the remote portions of the city, away from center city. fourth, the experience of cook county should be a cautionary tale for a jurisdiction considering a classification system for the property tax that involves a higher tax on commercial property compared to the tax in the adjacent counties. should the philadelphia property tax classification system be modified? 41 finally, we believe that the proposed set of changes in tax policy needs further study. while a proposed increase in the property tax on commercial real estate may be needed to offset the loss of revenue from cuts in the wage and business net income taxes, a greater increase in the property tax on commercial real estate runs the risk of discouraging commercial real estate development in the city. taxes and tax reform in philadelphia the city of philadelphia relies on four sources of tax revenue: 1. the wage tax is an income tax on all workers regardless of where they reside. the rate is currently at 3.91% for those who live and work in philadelphia. for those who work in philadelphia but do not live in its borders, the rate is 3.48%. at its highest (1993–1995), the philadelphia wage tax was 4.96% for residents and 4.31% for nonresidents. there have been steady reductions in the wage tax since the mid-1990s. 2. the real estate tax is imposed at a rate of 0.6317% on the values (ad valorem) of both residential and commercial property.2 3. the birt is imposed on all businesses at rates of 0.14% on gross receipts and 6.39% on net business income. 4. the city uses a combination of other taxes, which include sales, parking, and real estate transfer taxes. these taxes make up 14% of total tax revenue, and are not part of the proposed tax reform package. revenue for the city of philadelphia from each source for fiscal year 2016 is illustrated in table 1. table 1. city of philadelphia revenue by source, fy 2016 source revenue ($, in millions) percentage of general fund wage tax 1,742 53.8 real estate tax 581 18.0 birt 454 14.0 other taxes 460 14.2 total 3,237 100.0 source: econsult solutions (2015). 42 jeffrey carroll and john f. mcdonald the philadelphia tax structure has undergone several changes in its major taxes since the turn of the century. the first change is gradual wage tax reduction. philadelphia was the first major city to implement a wage tax in 1939, then at a rate of 1.5%. what was intended to be a temporary tax to provide fiscal stability in the wake of the great depression became a permanent fixture in philadelphia’s taxation system. the negative impact of the wage tax on employment in the city has been documented by numerous studies since 1980. luce and summers (1987) estimated that the increase in the wage tax from 1.625% in 1964, to 2.0% in 1969, and to 4.3125% in 1983 resulted in 91,000 to 136,000 jobs lost, or roughly 60% of the total jobs lost in the city during those years. they concluded: it is very likely that a significant portion of the wage tax is, indeed, paid by businesses rather than commuters or city residents (in the form of higher wages that must be paid). the wage tax is, therefore, an inappropriate instrument being used to pursue an appropriate policy goal—matching the costs of public services to the beneficiaries. (luce and summers 1987, 59) given the documented negative impact of the wage tax on employment, it is understandable that reducing the wage tax has long remained an important goal. since the mid-1990s, gradual decreases in the wage tax have been made. due to the recent economic crisis, the wage tax remained constant at 3.928% for residents and 3.4985% for nonresidents between 2010 and 2013, after which gradual rate reductions recommenced. unlike most municipal governments that rely heavily on real estate taxes, the city of philadelphia relies on the wage tax for 54% of its tax revenue. the second major change in the philadelphia tax system was in the real estate tax due to the implementation of the actual value initiative (avi), an overhaul of the property assessment system. it had long been understood that there were inequities in philadelphia’s property assessment system across the entire city as the amount of tax paid was severely misaligned with the value of the property. avi’s purpose was to correct this imbalance by bringing property assessments to their “actual value,” or true value of a property on the market. this ambitious plan sought to put into place three major changes simultaneously: (1) change the market value of each property parcel; (2) change the manner of how assessments are used to calculate tax bills; and (3) address how property owners would manage the tax increases as a result of the new system (pew charitable trusts 2012). a study by the city of philadelphia, office of the city controller (2013) before avi’s implementation found should the philadelphia property tax classification system be modified? 43 that 107,603 properties would receive property value decreases and 343,191 properties would increase. the avi process was intended to be revenue neutral, but it shifted the share of taxable value by property type. a report by pew trusts on avi (2013) shows that the share of taxable value of residential property increases from 53.9% to 59.9% of all property taxes collected, and the share for all other property decreases from 46.1% to 40.0%. this change in shares means a significantly higher yield in tax revenue from residential properties and a loss of revenue from other properties. data presented below show that the property taxes on office buildings did decline. it is worth noting that approximately 10% of philadelphia’s real estate stock is owned by nonprofit institutions and is exempt from property taxes. these exemptions are controversial as nonprofit institutions hold some of the city’s most valuable real estate and are some of the city’s largest employers. in 1994, philadelphia implemented a payment in lieu of taxes (pilot) program that allowed nonprofits to contribute voluntarily to the city’s general fund to assist in the provision of basic services such as street repair and trash pickup (city of philadelphia 1994). the program required the property owner to make a fiveyear commitment or risk having its tax-exempt status reviewed and possibly revoked. prior to the commitments expiring, the commonwealth enacted act 55, the institutions of purely public charities act, which allowed most of the nonprofits to safely allow their pilot commitments to expire. since 2000, the city essentially abandoned its pilot program. a 2012 report from the lincoln institute of land policy shows that 218 jurisdictions in 28 states have implemented pilot programs since 2000 (langley, kenyon, and bailin 2012). there are 30 jurisdictions in pennsylvania that collected $10 million in total in pilot revenue in fy 2011, the largest being erie ($2.8 million) and pittsburgh ($2.6 million). philadelphia’s pilot revenue was $491,860 or roughly 0.11% of its total property tax revenue. in the last year, there has been great political pressure to acquire more revenue from nonprofits, particularly the city’s medical and educational institutions. the third major change to philadelphia taxes is the birt, which is a tax levied on all businesses in the city and which is divided into two parts: a tax on gross receipts and a tax on net income. currently, the rate is 0.1415% on gross receipts and 6.39% on net income. this tax was previously called the business privilege tax until its most recent reform in 2011 that resulted in two major changes: (1) businesses are now exempted from tax from the first $50,000 in gross receipts in 2014, $75,000 in 2015, and $100,000 in 2016 and in subsequent years, and (2) the tax rate on taxable net income would slowly be phased down to 6.0% by 2023. the impetus for these recent reforms stemmed from complaints that philadelphia small businesses were at a competitive 44 jeffrey carroll and john f. mcdonald disadvantage relative to small businesses outside of the city that were subject to lower taxes. the school district of philadelphia heavily relies on local tax and nontax revenue for its general fund in addition to funding from the state and federal government. the property tax is 1.39998% of assessed value, of which 0.6317% goes to the city’s general fund and 0.7681% goes to the school district. in addition, the business use and occupancy tax is levied on the assessed value of commercial real estate at a statutory rate of 1.21% (with a number of exemptions and exclusions provided). in short, some commercial real estate is taxed at a statutory rate of 2.61% of assessed value, minus any exemptions and exclusions. the sources of revenue for the school district of philadelphia for fy 2016 are illustrated in table 2. according to the econsult solutions (2015) report, the real estate tax revenue for the city of philadelphia of $581 million consists of $361 million (62.1%) collected from residential property and $220 million (37.9%) collected from commercial property. the breakdown of total real estate taxes into municipal, school district, residential, and commercial components is shown in table 3. the computations are as follows. commercial real estate tax collections for the city of philadelphia are $220 million with a tax rate of 0.6317%, so the effective commercial real estate tax base is $220 million/0.006317 = $34.83 billion. the tax base computed in this manner is not equal to the total market value of property because of exemptions and exclusions in the determination of the tax due. given this tax base, the commercial real estate tax collections for the school district are $34.83 billion × 0.007681 = $267 million. table 2. school district of philadelphia revenue by source, fy 2016 source revenue ($, in millions) local tax revenue property tax business use and occupancy tax sales tax other local taxes 707 141 120 161 state revenue 1,327 local nontax revenue 131 federal revenue 11 total 2,599 source: school district of philadelphia (2016). should the philadelphia property tax classification system be modified? 45 in addition, the school district collected $141 million for the business use and occupancy tax assessed on commercial real estate. the effective tax rate for the business use and occupancy tax can be found as b in: $34.83 billion (0.007681 + b) = $141 million + $267 million = $408 million the solution for b is 0.004 (0.4%), which is the effective tax for the business use and occupancy tax, far lower than the statutory rate of 1.21%, likely because of the exemption of $165,300 of assessed value and several exclusions (hotels, vacant space, living space, nonprofit business space, and port-related property). considering two tax reform proposals: the city of philadelphia plan and the growth coalition “levy-sweeney” plan let us consider two tax reform scenarios: one proposed by the city of philadelphia and one proposed by the growth coalition. the city of philadelphia proposal plans to reduce the wage tax on residents from 3.91% to 3.52% and on nonresidents from the current 3.48% to 3.13% over a period of 10 years. the city believes that wage tax revenue will continue to grow even as the wage tax rate is cut. on the other hand, the tax reform proposal by the growth coalition as laid out in an econsult solutions (2015) report has four major elements. table 3. real estate taxes in philadelphia, fy 2016 sector real estate tax revenue ($, in millions) tax rate tax base ($, in billions) city residential commercial 581 361 220 0.6317 91.98 57.15 34.83 school district residential commercial 707 439 267 0.7681 91.98 57.15 34.83 total residential commercial 1,287 800 487 1.3998 91.98 57.15 34.83 sources: econsult solutions (2015) and school district of philadelphia (2016). 46 jeffrey carroll and john f. mcdonald first, reduce the wage tax from 3.91% to 3.0% on residents and from 3.48% to 2.5% on nonresidents over a period of 10 years, instead of the planned smaller reductions to 3.52% and 3.13%. second, increase the real estate tax on commercial property to 1.61% immediately in 2017, and hold the tax rate on residential property at 1.3998%. the revenue generated from the increase in the real estate tax rate initially is to be devoted entirely to the city of philadelphia to make up for the decline in other taxes. third, reduce the net income tax part of birt from 6.39% to 3.0% over a period of 10 years (instead of the planned reduction to 6.00%), and keep the gross receipts part of birt at 0.14%. finally, make no changes to the other tax rates. the proposal to increase commercial real estate taxes to lower business and wage taxes has been dubbed the “levy-sweeney plan” after the plan’s two most vocal proponents, philadelphia center city district ceo paul levy and brandywine realty trust ceo jerry sweeney. as it stands, a property tax classification system in philadelphia would be feasible only if politics allow. article viii, section 1 of the pennsylvania state constitution (best known as the taxation “uniformity clause”) contends: “all taxes must be uniform, upon the same class of subjects, within the territorial limits of the authority levying the tax, and shall be collected and levied and collected under general laws.” this clause has been subject to rather strict interpretation by the pennsylvania state supreme court, which has made tax categorization systems and varying rate taxation difficult to implement. a philadelphia property tax classification system would require a constitutional amendment that includes the passage of legislation by the general assembly during two consecutive legislative sessions and then approval by voter referendum. philadelphia city council approved a resolution during the summer of 2015 that called on harrisburg to draft such legislation, which was eventually drafted and passed by the general assembly. what is the expected change in tax revenue derived from the proposed increase in the tax rate on commercial real estate, assuming no other change in tax rates? if the entire increase in the tax is passed forward to tenants, then the value of the tax base remains at $34.83 billion. tax revenue would increase from $487 million to $561 million, an increase of 15.2%. the share of revenue going to the city of philadelphia would increase from $220 million to $293 million. however, suppose that none of the increase in the tax is passed forward to tenants because the market for commercial space is perfectly competitive across the metropolitan area. the basic equation for the value of rental real estate is: v = (r – tv)/ρ = r/(ρ + t) should the philadelphia property tax classification system be modified? 47 here v is value, r is net rent excluding real estate tax (tv) at rate t, and ρ is the overall capitalization rate. written in natural log form, lnv = lnr – ln(ρ + t), and dlnv = dlnr – dln(ρ + t), with dlnr = 0 suppose that the overall capitalization rate ρ is 6.5% (0.065). insert the alternative values for t of 1.3998% and 1.6098% and compute the change in ln(ρ + t). the change in ln(ρ + t) is –0.0262, so the value v declines by 2.6% from $34.83 billion to $33.92 billion. tax revenue at the higher tax rate is $546 million. the share of revenue going to the city of philadelphia is $279 million (a $59 million increase). in short, whether the increase in the tax is passed forward to tenants makes little difference to the increase in tax revenue. the city of philadelphia might expect to obtain about $63 to $70 million in increased real estate tax revenue, a figure that matches the estimate obtained by econsult solutions (2015). property tax rates in philadelphia’s surrounding counties the lament over philadelphia’s “tax gap” relative to its suburban neighboring counties in pennsylvania and new jersey is well documented. the good news for philadelphia is that it has closed its tax disadvantage significantly in the new millennium. a pew trusts report (2012) comparing the tax burdens of hypothetical families in philadelphia and its neighboring counties found that the city has closed its tax disadvantage by 3% in the pennsylvania suburbs and 2% in the new jersey suburbs. the hypothetical family’s tax burden in philadelphia (after considering state income taxes) fell from 10.7% to 9.8% while the burden increased both in the pennsylvania suburbs (9.8% to 12.2%) and new jersey suburbs (9.9% to 11.3%). the pew study finds that the increased tax burden among pennsylvania suburban counties was mostly due to property and wage taxes while the rise in new jersey counties was mostly due to sales and property taxes. philadelphia’s median property tax rates are lower than the surrounding counties in pennsylvania and new jersey, based on data for residential property (table 4). if the median property tax rate for commercial real estate also is 0.91% of actual value (as opposed to assessed value), the addition of 0.40% from the business use and occupation tax makes the effective rate 1.31%. an increase in the property tax rate on commercial real estate in philadelphia of 0.21% would bring the rate to 1.52% and place the city above the rates in montgomery, chester, and bucks counties. 48 jeffrey carroll and john f. mcdonald overview of the philadelphia commercial real estate market commercial real estate in center city philadelphia has been growing steadily and is an inviting target for increased taxation. nonresidential commercial real estate is broken down into four categories: office, industrial, hotel, and retail. reports on the office and industrial markets are readily available, but detailed reports on the hotel and retail markets are not. this section is a brief overview of commercial real estate in philadelphia. table 5 is a summary of the office market for philadelphia and for the metropolitan area. the office market in philadelphia contains 36% of the total square feet of office space in the metropolitan area (and 34% of the class a office space). philadelphia is dominated by the central business district (95% of the total space). the vacancy rate in the city is lower than the vacancy rates in the rest of the metro area and this pattern is typical in that central business districts have lower vacancy rates than suburban office markets. as one would expect, asking rents are higher in the city as well. the savills studley (2015a) report on office rents in center city shows that building owners have been doing well since 2011, the year of the bottom of the cycle for this market. specifically, office-based employment increased by 2.5% in 2014 over 2013, which gave landlords the ability to increase rents. furthermore, the recent citywide property reassessment gave a significant reduction in property taxes for commercial buildings. the average property tax per square foot on class a buildings had been $3.10 from 2008 to 2012, then jumped to $3.98 in 2013, and fell to $2.36 in 2014. this is a 24% reduction for 2014 compared to 2012. landlord effective rent on new leases in class a table 4. median effective property tax rates in delaware valley region by county: 2017 county median effective property tax rate (%) philadelphia 0.91 chester 1.25 montgomery 1.29 delaware 1.67 bucks 1.27 camden 2.50 gloucester 2.27 burlington 2.06 source: tax-rates.org. should the philadelphia property tax classification system be modified? 49 buildings increased from $8.21 per square foot per year in 2012 and $8.57 in 2013 to $13.82 per square foot per year in 2014.3 at the same time tenant effective rent increased from $29.90 per square foot per year in 2012 and $30.23 in 2013 to $34.74 for 2014. with landlord effective rent of $13.82 and an overall capitalization rate of about 6.5% as reported by cbre (2016), the total value of the office buildings in philadelphia is an estimated $9.6 billion. given the prominence of the office market in philadelphia and the fact that property taxes have been reduced, it should come as no surprise that there is a proposal to increase the property tax rate on philadelphia’s commercial real estate. table 6 provides a snapshot of the industrial market. we see that philadelphia is not a prominent part of the industrial market, with 92 million square feet, just 19% of the total space in the metropolitan region. the vacancy rate in the city is higher than the average for the metro area, and quite a bit higher than the vacancy rate in the industrial market in the region’s suburbs in table 5. the office market in philadelphia and suburbs location total square feet (msf) vacancy rate (%) asking rent ($ per sf per year) class a square feet (msf) vacancy rate (%) asking rent ($ per sf per year) philadelphia 47.1 11.9 27.53 29.4 11.8 29.65 suburbs in pa 54.6 18.9 24.71 39.4 16.7 25.74 delaware 13.5 16.7 23.50 10.2 12.3 25.91 s. new jersey 15.5 17.9 20.62 7.2 16.6 21.65 total 130.7 16.1 24.67 86.2 14.5 26.29 source: savills studley (2015b). table 6. industrial real estate in philadelphia and suburbs location total square feet (msf) vacancy rate (%) asking rent ($) (triple net) philadelphia 92.4 10.5 4.04 flex space 4.4 n.a. 9.20 warehouse/manufacturing 88.0 n.a. 3.78 suburbs in pa 275.3 7.2 5.42 delaware 28.5 20.6 4.58 s. new jersey 97.8 9.2 4.20 total 494.0 9.0 4.85 source: newmark knight frank (2015). 50 jeffrey carroll and john f. mcdonald pennsylvania. furthermore, asking rents in the city are lower than all the suburban markets. the industrial market is divided into three parts: warehouse space, manufacturing space, and higher-quality “flex” space that includes more than a minimal amount of office space. however, f lex space is a very small portion of industrial supply in the city. triple net asking rent is $4.04 per square foot, so landlord effective rent may be about $3.50 per square foot. according to cbre (2016), the overall capitalization rate for industrial space in philadelphia is 6.5%, which would yield a value of $54 per square foot. this estimate of value means that the stock of industrial space in the city is worth about $5 billion. the hotel market in philadelphia as of 2014 includes 43 hotels in center city with 11,210 rooms. center city district (2015) reports an average daily rate of $173 per occupied room with occupancy of 75.5%, which means revenue per available room of $131 and total revenue of $1.47 million per day for the center city hotels ($536 million for the year). other hotels are located near philadelphia international airport. philadelphia has a large retail sector. center city district (2015) provides data on retailing between girard avenue and tasker street (as the respective north and south boundaries) and from the delaware river to the schuylkill river (as the respective east and west boundaries). in 2014, there were 3,193 store fronts consisting of 1,080 retail stores, 958 restaurant and food and drink establishments, and 1,155 service businesses. a detailed report for the market east retail submarket for 2014 by costar (2015) shows an inventory of 482 buildings with 4.36 million square feet, a vacancy rate of only 5.5%, and average asking rent of $23.81 per square foot per year. rent along walnut street is reported to be as high as $225 per square foot per year. several big-box stores and other retail establishments are found along columbus boulevard next to the delaware river as well. considering tax reform proposals in the growth coalition “levy-sweeney” plan the econsult solutions (2015) report includes projections out to 2026 for the city only (not including the school district) under two “dynamic” scenarios: one with the smaller changes in tax rates and one with the larger changes in tax rates that includes the increase in the property tax. table 7 shows a summary of the projections. we review those projections by comparing the two scenarios with the aim of understanding the long-run effects of the property tax increase. table 7. tax revenues under two scenarios ($) (tax revenue in millions, tax base in billions) smaller tax change (city scenario) larger tax change (growth coalition) year 2016 2017 2021 2026 2017 2021 2026 wage tax revenue, residents 1,045 1,076 1,168 1,318 1,061 1,126 1,199 tax rate 3.91% 3.90% 3.70% 3.52% 3.82% 3.455% 3.0% tax base 26.73 27.59 23.58 37.44 27.77 32.59 39.97 wage tax revenue, nonresidents 697 717 778 879 707 751 799 tax rate 3.48% 3.474% 3.30% 3.13% 3.385% 2.99% 2.5% tax base 20.30 20.64 29.36 28.08 20.89 25.12 34.50 real estate tax revenue, residential 361 366 411 454 369 437 483 tax rate 0.63% 0.63% 0.63% 0.63% 0.63% 0.63% 0.63% tax base 53.78 57.94 65.06 71.87 58.41 69.18 76.46 real estate tax revenue, commercial 220 225 263 305 296 352 415 tax rate 0.63% 0.63% 0.63% 0.63% 0.84% 0.84% 0.84% tax base 34.83 35.62 41.63 48.28 35.17 41.82 49.30 birt gross receipts 118 121 139 163 122 145 182 tax rate 0.14% 0.14% 0.14% 0.14% 0.14% 0.14% 0.14% tax base 84.29 86.43 99.29 116.43 87.14 103.57 130.0 birt net income receipts 336 340 393 447 324 331 315 tax rate 6.39% 6.35% 6.15% 6.00% 6.05% 4.7% 3.0% tax base 5.26 5.35 6.39 7.45 5.35 7.04 10.5 other taxes 460 469 559 672 479 590 732 total 3,237 3,314 3,711 4,238 3,358 3,732 4,125 employment (1000s) 804 805 815 822 813 845 883 source: econsult solutions (2015). smaller tax change as proposed by city, larger tax change as proposed by the growth coalition. 52 jeffrey carroll and john f. mcdonald comparison of the scenario with the smaller tax changes with the one with the larger tax changes shows that the wage tax on residents is being reduced from 3.70% to 3.455% in 2021 and from 3.52% to 3.0% in 2026. these are reductions of 6.62% and 14.77%, respectively. revenue is projected to fall by 3.6% in 2021 and by 9.0% in 2026 as a result of shifting to the larger tax changes. the wage tax on nonresidents is reduced from 3.30% to 2.99% in 2021 and from 3.13% to 2.5% in 2026, which are cuts of 9.39% and 20.1%. revenue is projected to fall by 3.47% in 2021 and by 9.1% in 2026 compared to the scenario with the smaller changes in tax rates. employment is projected to increase from 815,000 to 845,000 in 2021 (3.68%) and from 822,000 to 883,000 in 2026 (7.42%). the property tax rate on commercial property is increased from 1.3998% to 1.6098% in 2017 and held at that level. this is an increase in the tax rate of 15%. revenue in 2021 for the city based on its new tax rate of 0.8417% is projected to increase by 33.84% in 2021 and 36.07% in 2026 compared to the scenario with the smaller tax changes, which includes no change in the property tax rate. the tax on net business income is reduced from 6.15% to 4.7% in 2021 and from 6.0% to 3.0% in 2026. revenue is projected to fall by 15.78% for 2021 and by 29.53% for 2026 compared to the scenario with smaller tax changes. the cuts in tax rates on wages and business net income increase the tax bases and reduce tax revenue, which is the normal outcome. the findings for commercial real estate are very different. the combined impact of the changes in tax rates, including the increase in the commercial property tax, is essentially no change in the tax base for 2021 and 2026. the tax is increased in 2017 from 0.6317% to 0.8417%, which means an immediate increase in tax bills and not enough time to change the supply of real estate. if the entire increase in the tax bill is passed along to tenants, an unlikely outcome, the value of property (i.e., the tax base) will remain constant. the more likely outcome is that property values tend to decline. the econsult solutions (2015) report estimates that the tax base will decline by 1.3% immediately in 2017 (and increase slightly in 2021 and 2026). given that the tax rate increases by 33.2%, tax revenue is projected to increase from $225 million to $296 million (31.6%) in the first year, an increase of $71 million. recall that our estimate is only slightly lower. table 7 provides an answer to the question whether the larger tax changes proposed by the growth coalition are revenue neutral—whether total tax revenue rises, falls, or remains constant given the changes. comparing the two scenarios, table 7 shows that total tax revenue for the city remains roughly should the philadelphia property tax classification system be modified? 53 constant. in addition, the tax revenue from the four taxes that are changed (resident and nonresident wage tax, property tax on commercial real estate, and birt net income tax) does not change in 2017 or 2021. however, the revenue collected from these four taxes with the smaller tax changes is $2,949 million in 2026 and $2,728 million with the larger tax changes in 2026, a shortfall of $221 million. consider the other taxes on businesses in philadelphia that are part of the city and growth coalition plans for reducing taxes, which include changes to wage taxes and the birt. table 7 shows these taxes generated $2,078 million in 2016 on a base of $52 billion for a rate of 4%. projections for 2026 for the two versions of tax cut plans are shown in table 8. the dynamic version of the city plan collects $2,664 million on a base of $72.99 billion for a rate of 3.62%. the overall cut in the rate on this base from 4.0% to 3.62% is a cut in the rate of 0.38% (or 9.5% of 4.0%). the growth coalition plan cuts the overall tax rate to 2.81% on a base of $82.43 billion. the cut in the rate is 1.19% (or 29.75% of the original 4.0%). in other words, the tax cut proposed by the growth coalition is three times the size of the tax cut proposed by the city. table 8. comparison of tax scenarios ($ figures in millions) wage tax, residents wage tax, nonresidents business net income total wage and business net income commercial real estate 2016 base rate 3.9102% 3.48285 6.39% 4.00% 1.4% revenue $1,045 $697 $336 $2,078 $220 base $26,725 $20,013 $5,258 $51,996 $15,714 2026 city static (smaller tax change) rate 3.5165% 3.1322% 6.00% 3.63% 1.4% revenue $1,263 $842 $447 $2,550 $293 base $35,916 $26,882 $7,450 $70,248 $20,929 2026 city dynamic (smaller tax change) rate 3.5162% 3.1322% 6.00% 3.62% 1.4% revenue $1,318 $879 $447 $2,644 $305 base $37,480 $28,063 $7,450 $72,993 $21,786 2016 growth coalition (larger tax change) rate 3.0% 2.5% 3.0% 2.81% 1.61% revenue $1,199 $799 $315 $2,313 $415 base $39,967 $31,960 $10,500 $82,427 $25,776 source: econsult solutions (2015). 54 jeffrey carroll and john f. mcdonald the cook county, illinois, property tax system every county in illinois, except cook county, assesses all property that is subject to property taxation at 33.3% of market value. the constitution of the state of illinois permits counties with population in excess of 200,000 to adopt a classification system for local property taxation in which the assessment ratio can vary across classes of property by a factor no larger than 2.5. cook county is the only county that has adopted such a system, which currently includes six major classes and eight incentive classes. the six major classes and their statutory assessment ratios are illustrated in table 9. the illinois department of revenue computes an equalization factor that brings the total assessed value of property for cook county to 33.3% of estimated market value for the entire county. because residential property, class 2 and class 3, the largest category of property, is assessed at only 10% of market value, the equalization factor is in the range of 3.0. the actual equalization factor was 3.30 in 2010 and 2.9706 in 2011. these equalization factors imply that, in effect, commercial and industrial properties in cook county are being assessed at 82.5% to 74.3% of market value, compared to 33.3% in the collar counties such as dupage, lake, and will. the classification system leads to a large divergence in property taxes on commercial and industrial properties that are otherwise identical between cook county and the adjacent counties. on the other hand, the state equalization factor brings the assessment ratio for residential property in cook county roughly into equality with residential property in the adjacent counties. it is important to make the distinction between the assessment ratio and the property tax rate. the property tax rate for cook county reported here is the property tax bill divided by the value of the property, i.e., property taxes as a percentage of property value. for example, the property tax rate table 9. cook county property tax classifications by statutory assessment ratios class type assessment ratio class 1 vacant or farm land 10% class 2 residential (6 units or fewer) 10% class 3 apartments (7 units or more) 10% (as of 2011) class 4 not-for-profit 25% class 5a commercial 25% class 5b industrial 25% source: cook county assessor’s office (2015). should the philadelphia property tax classification system be modified? 55 for tax year 2011 in river forest township in cook county is calculated as follows: tax rate = estimated property value × assessment ratio × state equalization factor × local tax rate estimated property value estimated property value cancels out from this equation, so in this case of commercial and industrial property in suburban river forest township in cook county, tax rate = 0.25 × 2.9706 × 0.09247 = 0.0687 (6.87% of estimated property value) the corresponding tax rate for residential property in river forest township uses the assessment ratio of 10%, which produces a tax rate of 2.75%. the studies of industrial property sales by mcdonald and yurova (2006, 2007) found that the average property tax rate for 2001–2004 for a sample of 419 properties was 4.32% of market value in cook county and 1.69% of market value in dupage county. other studies find similar differences. property tax rates in metropolitan chicago dardick and bentle (2015) estimate effective property tax rates (property taxes as a percentage of property value) for 2015. table 10 shows effective property tax rates for a representative sample of municipalities. municipalities in cook county and the adjacent counties of dupage, lake, and will are shown. table 10 shows that property tax rates in suburban cook county municipalities are much higher than property tax rates both in the city of chicago and in collar county municipalities. table 10 shows that the 2015 effective property tax rate in the city of chicago on residential property (1.86%) was among the lowest in the metro area, but the rate on business property (4.64%) was higher than in most of the collar county municipalities. funding from the state of illinois for the chicago public schools is a major factor in keeping these rates as low as they are. however, effective property tax rates on business property were higher in suburban cook municipalities than in the collar county municipalities—in most cases much higher. the highest effective property tax rates on business property were in the low-income southern cook county municipalities of harvey and calumet city. in addition, effective property tax rates in prosperous cook 56 jeffrey carroll and john f. mcdonald county suburbs such as arlington heights, evanston, and oak park were double (or more) the rates in many of the collar county municipalities. economic effects of the cook county property tax system academic research on the cook county property tax as it pertains to commercial and industrial property has produced four significant findings pertinent to this study. first, the growth of the property tax base for both commercial and industrial property in a county is strongly negatively affected by a property tax rate that exceeds the average for the metropolitan area. a greater increase in the property tax rate also inhibits the growth of the commercial and industrial tax base (mcdonald 1993a). second, higher property table 10. effective property tax rates (%) in chicago area counties, 2015 municipality residential business cook county chicago 1.86 4.64 arlington heights 2.69 6.73 glenview 2.37 5.92 evanston 2.66 6.64 harvey 5.72 14.31 calumet city 7.10 17.74 oak park 3.35 8.38 dupage county elk grove village 3.22 3.22 wheaton 2.67 2.67 naperville 2.45 2.45 lake county buffalo grove 3.27 3.27 lake forest 1.85 1.85 waukegan 5.52 5.52 will county joliet 3.63 3.63 peotone 3.15 3.15 naperville 2.76 2.76 note: the city of naperville is a chicago suburb located in both dupage and will counties. source: dardick and bentle (2015). should the philadelphia property tax classification system be modified? 57 tax rates led to significantly slower growth rates for employment, commercial property values, and industrial property values in suburban municipalities during 1990–1996 (dye, mcguire, and merriman 2001).4 third, industrial properties in cook county sold for prices that were 16% lower than comparable properties in dupage county during 2001–2004. this estimate implies that the difference in property taxes was fully capitalized into lower property values (mcdonald and yurova 2006, 2007).5 as mcdonald (1993a) and dye, mcguire, and merriman (2001) show, lower market values for industrial property translate into lower growth in property of this type. last, a study of the downtown office rents found that 45% of property tax differences among those buildings were shifted to tenants in the form of higher rents (mcdonald 1993b). this suggests that, under some conditions, a portion of higher property taxes is shifted to tenants rather than only reducing property value. conclusion: philadelphia must exercise caution but continue to seek an optimal tax system we conclude with the observation that while reducing reliance on the philadelphia wage tax is a good idea, the advisability of making a drastic cut in the business net income tax is open to question. furthermore, while the creation of a property tax classification system faces legal hurdles, the separation of the property tax rates on residential and commercial property may lead to further increases in the tax on commercial property that could be harmful. as evidence from cook county shows, philadelphia must exercise utmost caution if it chooses to enact a property classification system. this study raises the question of what should be the best combination of taxes to raise the money needed to operate municipal services. philadelphia uses most of the various taxes that exist: property, sales, wage, business net income, and business gross receipts revenue. it is even going so far as to reach into a new grab-bag of taxes such as its new “beverage tax,” a 1.5 cent per ounce tax on purchases of sugary and artificially sweetened beverages (“philadelphia beverage tax” 2016). in general, philadelphia has not taxed all forms of household income—just wages. there is general agreement that philadelphia relies too heavily on the wage tax, but is there a solution to the problem? philadelphia seems hard-pressed to figure out a solution that replaces its revenue. is philadelphia “boxed in” by the wage tax? an answer to this question must include an assessment of the city’s public services as well. cities must provide educational and social services, but to do so, they must be able to attract and retain households and businesses that are able and willing to pay taxes. success in attracting taxpayers depends 58 jeffrey carroll and john f. mcdonald on providing the services and amenities that they demand. good schools and safe neighborhoods probably top the list, but other factors such as parks, libraries, commercial corridors, and recreation centers are important too. can the city leverage its public goods that attract new residents while retaining the residents that it has? future studies must continue to think about whether an optimal combination of taxes exists and if cities can garner enough revenue to provide crucial services that meet its citizenry’s needs. notes 1. the school district of philadelphia imposes a tax of 0.7681%, which brings the total tax rate to 1.3998%. an exemption from property taxes for 10 years is available for new construction or substantial renovation of existing properties. 2. for the most part, local governments rely on property taxes for a large percentage of their revenue. according to the urban institute, all local governments together raised 29.7% of tax revenue from real estate taxes, but that percentage has declined sharply from 66.2% in 1967 (urban institute 2012). 3. landlord effective rent is defined as rent received by the landlord after all expenses have been subtracted. this includes an annualized amount for tenant concessions such as months of free rent and allowances for upgrades of the space. tenant effective rent is the total cost of occupying the space (including utilities, with an adjustment for tenant concessions). 4. the city of chicago is not included in the study. 5. the studies focused on industrial properties in the o’hare airport market area. references cbre. 2016. “north american cap rate survey, first half of 2016.” available at http:// www.cbrehotels.com/en/research/pages/h1-2016-north-america-cap-rate -survey.aspx. accessed october 14, 2016. center city district and central philadelphia development corporation. 2015. “state of center city philadelphia.” available at http://centercityphila.org/research-reports/ socc. accessed july 15, 2016. city of philadelphia. 1994. “executive order no. 1-94. payments in lieu of taxes.” available at http://www.phila.gov/phils/docs/inventor/textonly/execorders/94-01.htm. accessed june 26, 2017. city of philadelphia, office of the city controller. 2013. “analysis of mayor’s actual value initiative.” available at http://www.philadelphiacontroller.org/publications/ controllerbutkovitz_avi_analysis_february2013-update.pdf. accessed july 15, 2016. cook county assessor’s office. 2015. “definition for the codes for classification of real property.” available at http://www.cookcountyassessor.com/assets/forms/classcode .pdf. accessed november 7, 2015. costar group. 2015. “market east retail submarket report.” available at https://www .costar.com/news/article/market-trend-philadelphia-industrial-vacancy-decreases -to-83/165658. accessed june 15, 2016. should the philadelphia property tax classification system be modified? 59 dardick, hal, and kyle bentle. 2015. “look up your effective property tax rate.” chicago tribune, november 13. dye, richard, therese mcguire, and david merriman. 2001. “the impact of property taxes and property tax classification on business activity in the chicago metropolitan area.” journal of regional science 41 (november): 757–778. econsult solutions. 2015. “modeling the impact of tax reform in philadelphia.” august. available at http://www.econsultsolutions.com/report/choosing-the-best-mix-of -taxes-for-philadelphia-an-econometric-analysis-of-the-impacts-of-tax-rates-on -tax-bases-tax-revenue-and-the-private-economy/. accessed december 16, 2015. langley, adam, daphne kenyon, and patricia bailin. 2012. “payments in lieu of taxes by nonprofits: which nonprofits make pilots and which localities receive them.” lincoln institute of land policy. available at https://www.lincolninst.edu/sites/ default/files/pubfiles/langley-wp12al1-full_0.pdf. accessed december 16, 2015. luce, thomas, and anita summers. 1987. local fiscal issues in the philadelphia metropolitan area. philadelphia: university of pennsylvania press. mcdonald, john f. 1993a. “local property taxes and business real estate values.” journal of real estate finance and economics 6 (may): 277–287. ———. 1993b. “incidence of the property tax on commercial real estate: the case of downtown chicago.” national tax journal 46 (june): 109–120. mcdonald, john f., and yuliva yurova. 2006. “are property taxes capitalized in the selling price of industrial real estate?” appraisal journal 74 (summer): 250–256. ———. 2007. “property taxation and the selling price of industrial real estate.” review of accounting and finance 6 (3): 273–284. newmark knight frank. 2015. “3q 2015 philadelphia industrial market report.” available at http://www.ngkf.com/home/research/us-market-reports.aspx?d=5140. accessed february 16, 2016. pew charitable trusts, philadelphia research initiative. 2012. “the actual value initiative: overhauling property taxes in philadelphia, pew charitable trusts.” available at http://www.pewtrusts.org/~/media/legacy/uploadedfiles/philadelphiaproperty taxespdf.pdf. accessed january 16, 2016. ———. 2013. “avi: the shift in tax burden.” available at http://www.pewtrusts.org/~/ media/legacy/uploadedfiles/wwwpewtrustsorg/reports/philadelphia_research_ initiative/actualvalueinitiativephiladelphiapropertytaxespdf.pdf. accessed january 16, 2016. “philadelphia beverage tax.” 2016. city of philadelphia website. available at https://beta .phila.gov/services/payments-assistance-taxes/business-taxes/philadelphia-beverage -tax/. accessed march 13, 2016. “property tax by state.” tax-rates.org. available at http://www.tax-rates.org/taxtables/ property-tax-by-state. accessed january 16, 2016. savills studley. 2015a. “savills effective rent index philadelphia 2015.” available at http://pdf.savills.asia/selected-international-research/1506-serinational2015-en.pdf. accessed march 13, 2016. ———. 2015b. “q3 2015 philadelphia office sector report.” available at http://www .savills-studley.com/us/office-market-reports.aspx?currentsitepageid=66427&site pageid=213128-0&page=3. accessed march 13, 2016. school district of philadelphia. 2016. “the school district of philadelphia. budget in brief. 2015-2016.” available at https://www.philasd.org/budget/wp-content/uploads/ sites/96/2017/09/budget-in-brief_fy16_final.pdf. accessed march 13, 2016. 60 jeffrey carroll and john f. mcdonald urban institute. 2012. “state and local finance initiative.” available at http://www.urban .org/policy-centers/cross-center-initiatives/state-local-finance-initiative/projects/ state-and-local-backgrounders/property-taxes. accessed june 15, 2017. “uniformity of taxation.” article viii section 1 of constitution of the commonwealth of pa. http://codes.findlaw.com/pa/constitution-of-the-commonwealth-of -pennsylvania/#!tid=n9865bc4c37fd4884914a09f06f79ff76. accessed june 15, 2017. jeffrey n. carroll is assistant professor of political science at chestnut hill college in philadelphia, pennsylvania, with scholarly interests that focus on state and local government, urban politics, and urban public policy. he received his phd in political science and ma in urban studies from temple university. john f. mcdonald is emeritus professor of economics and finance, university of illinois at chicago, and gerald w. fogelson chair in real estate emeritus, roosevelt university. he received a phd in economics from yale university in 1971, and was awarded the david ricardo medal by the american real estate society in 2013. structure bookmarks taxes and tax reform in philadelphia considering two tax reform proposals: the city of philadelphia plan and the growth coalition “levy-sweeney” plan property tax rates in philadelphia’s surrounding counties overview of the philadelphia commercial real estate market considering tax reform proposals in the growth coalition “levy-sweeney” plan the cook county, illinois, property tax system property tax rates in metropolitan chicago economic effects of the cook county property tax system conclusion: philadelphia must exercise caution but continue to seek an optimal tax system notes references book reviews commonwealth, volume 20, issue 1 (2018). © 2018 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/com.v20i1.181. all rights reserved. book reviews ■ blazing the neoliberal trail: urban political development in the united states and the united kingdom. timothy p. r. weaver. 2015. philadelphia: university of pennsylvania press. isbn 978-0-81224-782-4 (cloth). how did supposedly politically liberal cities come to adopt marketoriented public policies for economic development and enhanced social welfare? in blazing the neoliberal trail, timothy p. r. weaver answers this question through an ideational and historical institutionalist lens with case studies of the use of urban development corporations in the london docklands project and the city of philadelphia’s implementation of enterprise zones. in the process, he traces the history of these pronounced pro-market ideas through the highest levels of government in both the united kingdom and the united states. contrary to intuition, he shows that enterprise zones, also known as empowerment zones, were not a direct result of catering to capital; business was at first lukewarm, if not opposed. similarly, the policy was fully embraced by president bill clinton’s new democrats and prime minister tony blair’s new labour. weaver defines neoliberalism as “a political-economic theory and rhetorical framework that rests on the notion that freedom, justice, and well-being book reviews 73 are best guaranteed by a political-economic system, undergirded by the state, which promotes private property (including via the privatization of state assets), open markets, and free trade and which privileges the interests of financial capital above all” (p. 11). ultimately, the argument goes, the burden on business through taxation serves as the main driver of urban disinvestment, poverty, unemployment, and their attendant ills that befell cities from the 1970s onward. like the mantra of the republican party today, tax cuts are the magic bullet for growth. of particular interest to readers of this journal will be the political-economic history of neoliberalism’s progress in the city of philadelphia. the discussion covers nearly one-third of the book, from 1951 and the takeover of city government by the reform democrats from solid republican control, to 2000, with particular emphasis on the administration of mayor ed rendell in the 1990s. in its early stages, neoliberalization was “by default,” whereas under rendell, it was “by design.” weaver traces the causes through three channels: political economic trends such as federal trade policies, lowered aid to cities, and deindustrialization; demographic trends such as white flight and an influx of african americans just as middle-class jobs for low-skill workers were disappearing; and a fiscal crisis due to increased pressure for public services and ballooning labor costs. the tate-rizzo years (1962–1980) marked the “alienation of economic elites from city hall” (through extreme tax hikes and public employee benefits), a unified black electorate, and a “solidification of the coalition” between business elites and african americans. the logic of coalition politics also played a major role in setting the stage for neoliberalism’s hold. from 1980 onward, each successive administration consolidated power through the alignment of african americans, white liberals, and business interests. the limits of coalition politics, as well as severe cuts in federal aid, made mayor wilson goode, the city’s first black mayor, neoliberal by default. under rendell, “services were privatized, unions defeated, and deficits reduced,” helping to make the city more appealing to developers and “business-f riendly.” the creation of the state-controlled pennsylvania intergovernmental cooperation authority (pica) with its appointed, not elected, city budgetary oversight, and the implementation of the 10-year tax abatement on new construction further showed the triumph of capital over citizens. it was neoliberalism by design. despite the absence of evidence of its effectiveness, neoliberalism marched on under the rendell administration with the creation of more empowerment 74 michelle j. atherton zones. unfortunately, the empowerment zone tracts fared worse on measures of reducing unemployment than comparable areas of the city between 2000 and 2007. on income, the zones performed even more poorly, declining nearly 12%. for the city as a whole, between 1990 and 2000, median household income declined, the unemployment rate nearly doubled, and poverty rose by nearly seven points to 26.7%. at the same time, the city attracted more and more households making over $150,000 per year. this number doubled between 2000 and 2010 to reach nearly 5% of the city. philadelphia succeeded in attracting more rich people, but in the process created even more of the poor. one does not have to guess that weaver finds neoliberalism highly distasteful. in the case of the united states, the ideology ignores the structural and historical place of cities and their citizens in urban political development, while denying the forces of global capital, racism, and the unequal distribution of resources in favor of the embrace of “free-market” solutions and a pathology of the poor and working class. while weaver does, at the end of the book, call for an alternative idea to take root in order for cities to grow in a more equitable fashion, the concluding chapter has no such vision. given the constraints of rising conservatism and a growing distaste for redistributive policies in the united states and the united kingdom, if not neoliberalism, what is a politically feasible alternative to bring balanced and sustainable development to urban areas? michelle j. atherton, associate director, temple university institute for public affairs ■ gifford pinchot: selected writings. char miller, ed. 2017. university park: the pennsylvania state university press. isbn 978-0-27107-842-7 (paperback). if e. digby baltzell’s assertion that “[t]he governorship of pennsylvania has proved to be a political graveyard” (1979, 389) is correct, then gifford pinchot chose the right trajectory for his political career. he established a national reputation by being at the forefront of the conservation movement of the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. he was instrumental in developing programs to educate foresters and in creating national organizations dedicated to scientific management of the wilderness. further, pinchot was a close ally of president theodore roosevelt, who appointed him as the first director book reviews 75 of the united states forest service, where he served from 1905–1910. it was only after establishing his national presence as a conservationist and leading progressive that he decided to enter the “political graveyard” and was elected to nonconsecutive terms as governor of pennsylvania (1923–1927 and 1931–1935). char miller has written extensively about the legacy of pinchot as well as the environmental movement. he draws on this background to provide a selection of primary writings from pinchot that create a comprehensive portrait of concepts behind the conservation movement and the larger progressive political philosophy that housed it. gifford pinchot: selected writings is organized around five topics: forestry, war and peace, governing pennsylvania, power regulation, and nature writings. two primary themes emerge from these writings. first, pinchot made a career of supporting reforms designed to make government operate in the public interest rather than on behalf of concentrated, private beneficiaries. he was a utilitarian who believed that private property should be subject to public control when individuals acted in their short-term economic self-interest at the expense of the long-term benefit of society. unregulated monopolies and the political machines that protected them were pinchot’s main targets. he argued that the united states would lose its “political liberty” if it could not create an administrative state that would ensure “industrial liberty.” this was the heart of his second main theme: scientific administration by a strong national government was the only way to protect the public interest. his conservation movement was not based on preserving pristine forests for their own sake. rather, it was a tool to create an efficient and well-executed plan to ensure a steady supply of wood and wood products to advance the nation’s economy. private interests looked for a quick profit without concern for replenishing forests. pinchot believed only government could correct this market failure while at the same time keeping prices low and dealing with corollary environmental problems caused by clear-cutting forests. readers of commonwealth would be interested in how these themes applied to pennsylvania and state politics in general. pinchot viewed federalism as an impediment to achieving his goals. almost half a century before e. e. schattschneider coined the phrase, pinchot argued that the only way to wrest power from economic interests and party bosses was by expanding the scope of conflict. states had three deficiencies from his perspective. first, they did not have the expertise or training to effectively administer programs in the national interest like forestry. a strong federal bureaucracy was necessary to train and guide subnational employees. second, pinchot believed that 76 j. wesley leckrone many states, particularly in the resource-rich west, were dominated by the industries he sought to regulate. absent a strong federal presence in fields such as conservation, some states would never adopt programs in the public interest, because their state legislatures were corrupt. finally, pinchot believed that there might be some instances in which states would pass good policy. however, given the lack of expertise on behalf of state bureaucracies and the corruption in legislatures, good policies would be stifled at the implementation stage. pinchot saw a role for the states in issues like conservation as long as washington, dc assumed the dominant role in the federal partnership. this philosophy extended into broader political questions of the early 1900s. for example, he argued that the federal government should be responsible for relief programs during the great depression because it had the power to redistribute resources through a progressive income tax. again, pinchot believed that moneyed interests could only be stopped at the federal level because state and local governments were too weak to challenge their power. gifford pinchot used the same political philosophy in his eight years as governor of pennsylvania. he supported the direct primary as a means to take power from party bosses and return it to average citizens. this worked to his benefit as he successfully ran as an “independent” candidate in the pennsylvania republican primary and was elected governor in 1922. he focused on balancing the budget, making government more efficient, and fighting corruption in his two nonconsecutive terms in office. in addition to supporting the direct primary, he advocated for campaign finance limits and “a general revision of election laws to make it harder for the gangsters of philadelphia and pittsburgh to steal votes” (p. 152). as governor he applied his centralizing tendencies by having the state assume control of a network of rural roads and assistance for the elderly. he argued that the commonwealth could more adequately address these issues and administer them more efficiently than local governments. pinchot’s most notorious act of centralizing power in pennsylvania occurred after the repeal of prohibition. an avowed “dry,” he sought to tightly regulate alcohol sales through state-run liquor stores whose proceeds would finance new social programs. however, regulation, not increased revenue, was the primary principle behind centralized liquor sales. supporters of liquor store privatization will smirk at pinchot’s claim that the system would provide “no artificial stimulation of demand for liquor. whisky [sic] will be sold by civil service employees with exactly the same amount of salesmanship as is displayed by an automatic postage stamp vending machine” (p. 173). collections of speeches and writings often get mired in details that only appeal to true devotees of authors. char miller avoids this by providing just book reviews 77 enough detail to explain the rationale behind pinchot’s thinking without becoming repetitive. gifford pinchot: selected writings provides great insight into the conservation movement, theodore roosevelt-style progressivism, and pennsylvania politics. it is well worth reading, if only for the last section where pinchot shows a surprising ability to engross the reader in tales of the outdoors. reference baltzell, e. digby. 1979. puritan boston and quaker philadelphia. boston: beacon press. j. wesley leckrone, associate professor, department of political science, widener university the role of community coordinated efforts in combating the opioid overdose crisis commonwealth, volume 20, issue 1 (2018). © 2018 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/com.v20i2-3.192. all rights reserved. the role of community coordinated efforts in combating the opioid overdose crisis the pennsylvania opioid overdose reduction technical assistance center lynn s. mirigian program evaluation research unit, university of pittsburgh school of pharmacy marco f. pugliese program evaluation research unit, university of pittsburgh school of pharmacy janice l. pringle program evaluation research unit, university of pittsburgh school of pharmacy monica f. gaydos program evaluation research unit, university of pittsburgh school of pharmacy the pennsylvania opioid overdose reduction technical assistance center (tac) was developed by the university of pittsburgh, school of pharmacy, program evaluation and research unit (peru) and funded by the pennsylvania commission on crime and delinquency (pccd) in response to the need for local coordination and supported efforts to address the growing number of opioid overdoses in pennsylvania. this article outlines the tac’s initiatives to address this crisis in 42 counties across the commonwealth of pennsylvania, stressing the importance of communication and collaboration both within and between communities, such as public health, public safety, first responders, physicians, the criminal justice system, and families. the tac uses the implementation framework (if) developed by dr. janice pringle to achieve accurate data assessment and the effective implementation, evaluation, and sustainability of programs. the increasing number of deaths each year due to opioid drug overdose represents an urgent crisis in this country, and more specifically, in pennsylvania. according to the centers for disease control and 148 lynn s. mirigian, marco f. pugliese, janice l. pringle, and monica f. gaydos prevention (cdc), “in 2014, pennsylvania had the thirdhighest number of opioid deaths in the country (2,732), behind only california (4,521) and ohio (2,744)” (centers for disease control and prevention 2016). the commonwealth of pennsylvania is the sixth largest state by size and population, with a diverse range of citizens in urban, suburban, and rural areas. in 2015, pennsylvania had the sixth highest overdose death rate in the united states, and experienced a 37% increase in overdose deaths from 2015 to 2016 (dea philadelphia division 2017). eighty-fi ve percent of overdose fatality toxicology reports included an opioid in 2016, and the average profile of a person who has died of an overdose is a white male between 25 and 34 years of age (dea philadelphia division 2017). the pennsylvania opioid overdose reduction technical assistance center (tac) was developed by the university of pittsburgh, school of pharmacy, program evaluation and research unit and funded by the pennsylvania commission on crime and delinquency (pccd) in response to the need for local coordination and support to address the growing number of opioid overdoses in pennsylvania. currently engaged with 42 counties, support ranges from technical assistance on an asneeded, informationsharing basis to comprehensive technical assistance involving local agency coordination, as well as data and evidencebased strategies to drive strategic planning, implementation, and evaluation (figure 1). figure 1. county map of engagement with pa opioid overdose reduction technical assistance center (tac) as of december 31, 2017. (pennsylvania opioid overdose reduction technical assistance center [tac], program evaluation research unit [peru], university of pittsburgh school of pharmacy, 2017.) the pennsylvania opioid overdose reduction technical assistance center 149 since may 2017, the tac has conducted 316 county meetings to unify stakeholders around a unified process. the tac created a model for opioid supply reduction, demand reduction, and overdose reduction at the county level using active participation from a coalition of county partners. the pennsylvania opioid overdose reduction technical assistance center (tac) strives to serve as a model of and a guide for empowering communities to address this major public health issue. in looking at other successful models, such as project lazarus, a communitybased overdose prevention program in western north carolina, we learn that “[a]t the center of project lazarus is the understanding that communities are ultimately responsible for their own health and that active participation from a coalition of community partners is required for a successful public health campaign” (albert et al. 2011, s78). to be effective, this empowerment must occur as a process of open communication and collaboration both within communities and between communities. to facilitate collaboration within communities, stakeholders must begin with an accurate assessment of the problem. the analysis of overdose deaths in pennsylvania, 2016 was compiled to gather accurate data and statistics on overdose deaths, and to “ensure [that] the commonwealth’s stakeholders and citizens receive a professional and accurate analysis generated by experts in the law enforcement and public health fields” (drug enforcement administration 2017, 3). communities must work to bridge the traditional gap between public health and public safety officials by building effective partnerships. one such initiative is pennsylvania’s single county authorities (scas), which “were established to plan and evaluate community drug and alcohol prevention, intervention, and treatment services. the scas determine a person’s eligibility for service funding, assess the need for treatment or other services, and make referrals to appropriate programs to match treatment and/ or service needs” (miller et al. 2016, 61). in the spirit of collaboration, “scas are working with law enforcement to implement the communitybased recommendations put forth in the 2015 national heroin task force report” (miller et al. 2016, 61). physicians and first responders must not only be educated on best practices to assist patients with substance use disorders, but also be engaged to become an active part of the solution. one encouraging example of this is the dawn (drug abuse warning network) program, sponsored by the substance abuse and mental health services administration (samhsa) of the u.s. department of health and human services (dhhs). dawn is “a public health surveillance system that monitors national and local trends in drug related emergency department visits and drugrelated deaths investigated by 150 lynn s. mirigian, marco f. pugliese, janice l. pringle, and monica f. gaydos medical examiners and coroners. dawn tells us where new drug problems are emerging, how old drug problems are changing, where public health resources might be needed, and which drugs and drug combinations are associated with the most severe health consequences” (dawn 2004). in a similar vein, the criminal justice system must continue to address gaps in services, and work to instill additional treatment programs and effective education in its facilities. according to a recent draft report of the president’s commission on combating drug addiction and the opioid crisis, “one study found that nearly 60% of jail personnel surveyed strongly disagreed with the statement that their tax dollars should support methadone treatment” (2017, 74). clearly, further progress remains to be made in educating correctional administrators and practitioners on the benefits of medication assisted treatment (mat) for individuals at increased risk for overdose following release from jail or prison. to encourage collaboration between communities, leaders in this field are advised to encourage clear communication among stakeholders at the federal, state, and local levels, and continue to provide county input to policymakers. a recent publication outlines a road map to guide stakeholders at the state level to find solutions to the current crisis, and can be used to help facilitate collaboration between other levels of government as well (murphy et al. 2016). families and communities must be continuously educated and made aware of the magnitude of this crisis, and programs must remain sustainable to survive beyond initial implementation. according to principles of community engagement, “community engagement can only be sustained by identifying and mobilizing community assets and strengths and by developing the community’s capacity and resources to make decisions and take action” (ctsac 2011, 51). organization of local efforts the tac uses an implementation framework (if) developed by dr. janice pringle to engage with counties (figure 2). the if is designed to organize counties to reduce overdoses through assessing the local impact of overdose, building capacity, strategic planning, developing and implementing interventions with quality and fidelity, and evaluating and sustaining efforts. counties begin with assessment, which consists of gathering data to better understand the local impact of overdoses. data is an integral component to local efforts, and the tac assists counties in the collection and analysis of data for later use in planning as well as the pennsylvania opioid overdose reduction technical assistance center 151 intervention performance and outcome measures. the tac has held 10 data seminars since may 2017. the tac maintains a comprehensive list of data needed as well as strategies to obtain data for sustained collection and monitoring (table 1). the tac offers analysis services to present counties with a comprehensive, objective data report that is actionable. next, the tac may help the county to develop an overdose reduction coalition or bring additional stakeholders into an existing coalition (table 2). the tac emphasizes the importance of developing coalitions that work to bridge public health and public safety. as these sectors have not traditionally needed to collaborate with each other, technical assistance is often needed to address coordination of efforts between public safety and public health. the tac provides technical assistance to 22 county recipients of pccd funding. figure 2. implementation framework (if) developed by dr. janice pringle. (pennsylvania opioid overdose reduction technical assistance center [tac], program evaluation research unit [peru], university of pittsburgh school of pharmacy, 2017.) 152 lynn s. mirigian, marco f. pugliese, janice l. pringle, and monica f. gaydos table 1. tac list of data data collection fields public safety overdose death emergency medical services (ems) emergency department (ed) 911 call trojan horse naloxone reversal prescription drug monitoring program (pdmp) national forensic laboratory information system (nflis) dea assessment education pharmacy treatment high intensity drug trafficking area (hidta) source: pennsylvania opioid overdose reduction technical assistance center (tac), program evaluation research unit (peru), university of pittsburgh school of pharmacy, 2017. table 2. county stakeholders required for effective collaboration effective collaboration i. ii. iii. iv. health professionals a) single county authority (sca) b) hospital professionals c) treatment providers d) recovery support e) center of excellence (coe) f) physicians g) criminal justice public safety a) criminal justice advisory board (cjab) b) coroner or medical examiner c) district attorney d) probation/parole e) jail f) courts community a) schools b) religious leaders c) persons in recovery d) family members e) political figures f) children youth services first responders a) fire b) emergency medical services (ems) c) local/state police source: pennsylvania opioid overdose reduction technical assistance center (tac), program evaluation research unit (peru), university of pittsburgh school of pharmacy, 2017. the pennsylvania opioid overdose reduction technical assistance center 153 first, county coalitions are encouraged to have leaders that represent both sectors (e.g., single county authority (sca) and district attorney (da)), improving buyin and ensuring that coalition work addresses the scope of opioid overdose. second, barriers in terminology, variability in department goals, and differences in values and beliefs amongst different stakeholders are addressed through an ideal vision and learning component of each coalition meeting. third, data is discussed openly between public safety and public health to eliminate confusion and identify opportunities for coordination. interventions that bridge the gap between public safety and public health are encouraged and shared amongst the tac counties. for example, law enforcement can share nonfatal overdose information with the county drug and alcohol treatment authority for followup. once a county has data to assess overdose and sufficient capacity to get work done, the tac will assist coalitions in the development of an evidence based, datadriven strategic plan used to guide counties in their overdose elimination efforts, ensuring interventions are developed and implemented to have the highest impact. in 2017, the tac developed 20 strategic plans. opioid supply, demand, and overdose reduction efforts are proposed by coalition members and implemented by responsible parties through their professional responsibilities or volunteers. because of heightened awareness around drug overdose, many organizations and coalitions are responding at the local, state, and federal levels. the tac teaches county entities how to coordinate efforts, minimize duplication, and identify and take advantage of outside resources. the overdosefree pa website, for example, includes content contributions from 25 counties and offers a wide range of resources for state and county level entities. this site averages 15,000 page views per month. effective implementation and evaluation is accomplished through teaching best practices using an implementation guide and connecting counties with local evaluators. the implementation guide provides structure to the county coalitions with respect to how they can implement an activity efficiently and effectively. second, it provides counties with the information necessary to efficiently obtain additional funds from foundations and state and federal sources. information includes a program summary, initiative champion, vision, evaluation goals and objectives, literature review, impact model, patient pathway diagram, implementation protocol, and evaluation scheme. in 2017, tac aided 11 county applications for federal funding. given the complex relationships and stakeholders that impact opioid overdoses, it is not feasible to determine the individual impact of each intervention in isolation. sustainability is pivotal to maintaining interventions beyond an initial phase. pccd recently funded 10 counties to assist with the implementation 154 lynn s. mirigian, marco f. pugliese, janice l. pringle, and monica f. gaydos of strategic planning initiatives, with funding totaling over $800,000, and released an additional rfp in 2017 for the same purpose. furthermore, the tac informs counties when additional funding from federal and local sources becomes available and can assist counties with proposal writing and review. (the tac cannot assist with proposals for pccd funding.) interventions it is beyond the scope of this article to provide details of each intervention underway in 42 counties; however, a handful are highlighted below. in total, 100 programs are currently being implemented by tac, with an average of 4.3 new programs being implemented per county. supply reduction overdose investigation coordination in partnership with the drug enforcement administration (dea), local police departments are investigating drugdelivery-r esulting-i ndeath cases. the dea provides analytical resources to counties, assisting with over 900 state and local investigations (communication with laura hendrick, dea). in addition, all nonfatal overdoses reported to the dea are subsequently provided to the county authority on drug and alcohol, or a local center of excellence. prescriber education county coalitions have expanded training and educational opportunities to include health care professionals (e.g., physicians, pharmacists, nurses) and first responders. one such program is unique in that physicians are educated on opioid prescribing guidelines, the prescription drug monitoring program, and alternative strategies to pain management, with emphasis on followup peertopeer interactions. physician education often lacks an engagement piece, especially from other physicians, which decreases the chances of changing behavior. peer mentors work with high-p rescribing physicians to plan strategies of how to effectively change practice and implement guidelines. medication disposal safe medication disposal practices can reduce the supply of opioids available to a community, and protocols are being developed and implemented to limit the potential diversion of opioids from homes of persons who have died, nursing homes, real estate agencies, and assisted living facilities (urie 2017). in addition, prescription takeback events sponsored by sheriff and police the pennsylvania opioid overdose reduction technical assistance center 155 departments with support from the dea occur at least twice a year. most counties also have fixed medicine disposal sites at law enforcement offices, with a locator map found on the pennsylvania department of drug and alcohol programs website. for rural areas, where transportation to a fixed site may be problematic, drug deactivation and disposal bags are available (chandler, fletcher, and volkow 2009). demand reduction increasing access to treatment through criminal justice programs the criminal justice system is a crucial intercept point for individuals who have an opioid use disorder. discharged inmates overdose and die at a much higher rate than the general population, and this group is more likely to recidivate and commit new crimes (friedmann et al. 2012; gordon, kinlock, and miller 2011; ludwig and peters 2014; timko and debenedetti 2007; and welsh et al. 2016). through the collaboration of county coalitions, county scas and criminal justice personnel (e.g., wardens, adult probation officers, and district attorneys) have begun to address the gaps in services, including establishing or expanding treatment programs in jails or prisons. this initiative includes increasing educational opportunities for inmates regarding overdose prevention, which could include the provision of naloxone upon release, and establishing or expanding drug treatment courts. treatment interventions provided to jail and correctional facilities anticipate a comprehensive, medically-a ssisted opioid treatment program for incarcerated inmates through the implementation of several evidence-ba sed practices. cognitive behavior therapy and other treatment modalities are employed while the inmate is still incarcerated in a secure, drug-f ree, controlled environment. prior to release, continued treatment appointments are arranged, and the program participant may be induced to start mat. engaging overdose survivors with treatment and resources first responders across the commonwealth have reported experiencing burnout related to repeat naloxone administrations to the same individuals and knowing that these individuals are not being engaged in treatment. in response to these frustrations, county sca offices have been collaborating with local ems and law enforcement to establish followup programs that aim to encourage an overdose survivor to enter treatment. interventions train first responders on using naloxone for overdose reversal and training patients and families on how to use “leavebehind” naloxone kits (centers for disease control and prevention 2016); using motivational interviewing to conduct 156 lynn s. mirigian, marco f. pugliese, janice l. pringle, and monica f. gaydos referrals and “warm handoffs” to help patients access substance use disorder and/or mental health (sud/mh) evaluation and treatment (dea philadelphia division 2017); and/or implementing communitybased paramedicine and harm reduction followup procedures with patients who do not wish to pursue treatment (albert et al. 2011). for example, one intervention aims to provide follow-u p care and treatment to overdose survivors, through ems and ed providers working in collaboration with the center of excellence (coe) and the single county authority (sca) to ensure access to drug and alcohol services (merrick et al. 2007). this program is designed to expand emergency response duties of first responders, resulting in more efficient and ongoing care for the patient and to promote collaboration, rather than completion. upon treatment by emergency responders, overdose survivors are informed of the opportunity to speak with a care navigator provided by the center of excellence. when a survivor is interested in pursuing treatment, the care navigator will assist in the entrance and completion of an appropriate treatment program. if an overdose survivor initially refuses treatment and is transported to a hospital, the ems providers will follow up with the individual the next day to further encourage treatment. similar engagement and connection to treatment interventions are underway in emergency departments, often referred to as “warm handoffs.” persons in the emergency departments are screened and identified as needing additional followup treatment for a substance use disorder. a care navigator, patient coordinator, certified recovery specialist, or someone in a similar role will engage with the individual and help identify and connect the person to treatment. workplace education through workplace education interventions, presentations are conducted with a goal to provide educational materials to individuals while promoting drugfree work environments (hartwell et al. 1996; stoner, mikko, and carpenter 2014). drugfree work environments include: written drug-f ree workplace policy, employee education, supervisor training, employee assistance program, and drug testing. resources such as those from pastop provide a worksite toolkit to provide further education regarding the risk of prescription painkillers and heroin use, the relationship between painkillers and heroin, and how to assist an individual who may need assistance. screening, brief intervention, and referral to treatment sbirt (screening, brief intervention, and referral for treatment) is an evidencebased practice used to identify, reduce, and prevent problematic use, the pennsylvania opioid overdose reduction technical assistance center 157 abuse, and dependence on alcohol and illicit drugs (agerwala and mccance katz 2012; babor et al. 2007). the sbirt program will consist of three major components: (1) screening—a health care professional in any setting will use standardized screening tools to assess and identify patients with risky substance abuse patterns; (2) brief intervention—a health care professional will engage a patient with risky substance use behaviors in a short conversation about their use, providing feedback and advice; and (3) referral for treatment—a health care professional will provide a referral to brief therapy or additional treatment to patients who screen in need of additional services. an outcome from implementation of sbirt programs is to increase the number of overdose survivors who enter treatment and sustain treatment, and to intervene prior to the overdose. because of this proactive manner, a decrease in the number of overdoses in the emergency department can be expected. the combination of early intervention by drug and alcohol staff and timely assistance for the patient in obtaining treatment will increase the likelihood of a successful discharge from treatment and decrease the likelihood of overdose and further substance abuse. overdose reduction increasing access to naloxone in pharmacies the tac launched a citizen science naloxone reporting project, which encourages pharmacy customers to engage their local pharmacists in discussion about naloxone. individuals can access an online form on overdosefree pa that guides them through conversations with their pharmacist regarding compliance with the standing order, stocking naloxone for sameday purchase, and questions about insurance billing. individuals can fill out the form online and submit it to the website where, once verified, it will be added to the naloxone finder map. the naloxone finder map is a tool that individuals can use to locate pharmacies in their area that stock naloxone. the map also provides information on the formulation that is carried and the insurance the pharmacy accepts. educational materials can be provided to pharmacies and pharmacists that do not currently honor the standing order and/or stock naloxone. increasing access to naloxone for persons at risk of overdose naloxone priority groups have been identified through data and previously published reports. persons at elevated risk for overdose leaving a county jail, treatment facility, or emergency room are offered naloxone with a brief training on overdose reduction strategies. 158 lynn s. mirigian, marco f. pugliese, janice l. pringle, and monica f. gaydos on a broader level, educational interventions are developed for the community audience that typically include naloxone and addiction education, information about treatment resources, and safe disposal of medications, including drug takeback days. educational materials on how to access and use naloxone are delivered using a town hall format, through public awareness campaigns, using local newspapers and television stations, by developing prevention magazines, through social media, and at the workplace. coordination of efforts across county lines the tac has assisted multiple agencies in the development and implementation of various workshops across the commonwealth of pennsylvania, resulting in over 600 individuals participating with a 99% satisfaction rate. the workshops intend to bring together stakeholders from public safety and public health to discuss trends regarding overdose deaths, various strategies to combat the opioid epidemic, and potential solutions. subjects may include the following: substance use disorder in different populations, evidence based treatment, overdose prevention and harm reduction, bridging public health and public safety, prescribing practices and the prescription drug monitoring program, addictions 101, and coordinating data between systems. throughout the planning and development stages of each workshop, the tac meets with leadership from each requesting agency multiple times prior to the workshops to ensure that content is relevant to the needs of the audience. components of each workshop include educational lectures, handson motivational interviewing skills, keynote speakers, and facilitation of panel discussions. in addition, the tac is coordinating efforts among federal, state, and local stakeholders by communicating programs and initiatives from federal and state agencies to countylevel entities. thus far, the tac has assisted in building a multitude of partnerships between counties, while providing county input to policymakers. summary and future directions the tac strives to improve effectiveness and outcomes through self assessment and is collecting outcome data for programs listed above. county meeting evaluations are disseminated and collected following all coalition meetings to understand if progress is being made. as a result, the tac can improve using a constant feedback loop with each county, provided by lessons learned from weekly meetings. to improve outcomes of county efforts, the the pennsylvania opioid overdose reduction technical assistance center 159 tac conducts annual key informant interviews with each county. for county interventions, detailed evaluation plans that collect process and outcome measurements are standard practice for counties working with the tac. it is anticipated that this data will be shared in 2018. looking to the near future, according to a recent report of the tac, “several counties are projected to stabilize their overdose death rates in 2017.” references agerwala, s. m., and e. f. mccancekatz. 2012. “integrating screening, brief intervention, and referral to treatment (sbirt) into clinical practice settings: a brief review.” journal of psychoactive drugs 44 (september–october): 307–317. albert, s., f. w. brason, c. sanford, n. dasgupta, j. graham, and b. lovette. 2011. “project lazarus: community-b ased overdose prevention in rural north carolina.” pain medicine 12 (june): s77–s85. babor, t. f., b. g. mcree, p. a. kassebaum, p. l. grimaldi, k. ahmed, and j. bray. 2007. “screening, brief intervention, and referral to treatment (sbirt): toward a public health approach to the management of substance abuse.” substance abuse 28 (january): 7–30. centers for disease control and prevention. 2016. increases in drug and opioid overdose deaths—united states, 2000–2014. washington, dc: centers for disease control and prevention. available at 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105–121. lynn s. mirigian is the project director for the pennsylvania opioid overdose reduction technical assistance center (tac) at the program evaluation and research unit (peru) of the university of pittsburgh, school of pharmacy. she manages a dedicated team to fight the increasing issue of drug overdose deaths in the commonwealth. she earned her doctoral degree at the national institutes of health, where she researched biochemistry and cell biology. previously, dr. mirigian worked as a science policy manager in washington, d.c., where she conducted science policy research, marketing and administration of a peerreviewed journal, and scientific task force management. marco f. pugliese is a research specialist for the pennsylvania opioid overdose reduction technical assistance center (tac) at the program evaluation and research unit of the university of pittsburgh school of pharmacy, where he manages the organization and content of the overdosefree pa website. he earned an ma in health, physical activity, and chronic disease from the university of pittsburgh. mr. pugliese has prior research experience with the centers for disease control and prevention (cdc) and the physical activity and weight management research center. his areas of expertise include coalition health assessment and evaluation, motivational interviewing, and communication strategies. the pennsylvania opioid overdose reduction technical assistance center 161 janice l. pringle is an epidemiologist by training, with extensive experience in health services research. she is a professor at the university of pittsburgh, school of pharmacy, and the founder and director of the program evaluation research unit (peru) within the university of pittsburgh, school of pharmacy. her area of expertise is health services research and organizational health. she has developed a framework for assessing organizational health and guiding systems transformation. dr. pringle has secured over $140 million in grants and has developed health care policy research that has been used to inform policy development at the state and federal levels. monica f. gaydos, ma, is a technical writer for the pa opioid overdose reduction technical assistance center (tac) and the centers of excellence (coe) projects within the program evaluation and research unit (peru) of the university of pittsburgh school of pharmacy. monica holds a degree in political science from duquesne university and an m.a. in social, therapeutic, and community studies from goldsmiths college, university of london. her experience in technical writing was gained from positions held at major publishing houses in new york city from 1990–2006, and as a freelance writer for several nonprofit organizations in pittsburgh, pa, since 2006. monica also has research, clinical, and teaching experience in exploring mindfulness and somatic approaches to help people achieve overall physical and psychological health. the heroin and opioid epidemic commonwealth, volume 20, issue 1 (2018). © 2018 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/com.v20i2-3.184. all rights reserved. the heroin and opioid epidemic pennsylvania’s statewide disaster emergency mark a. nordenberg chancellor emeritus and chair of the institute of politics, university of pittsburgh janice l. pringle school of pharmacy and director of the program evaluation research unit, university of pittsburgh the following was written on behalf of the special issue editors by mark nordenberg. earlier this year, i had the privilege of helping to host the officers and directors of the national safety council (nsc) when they brought a compelling new exhibit, “prescribed to death: a memorial to the victims of the opioid crisis” to the university of pittsburgh, its first stop on a national tour. the very fact that an organization as respected as the nsc— which built its reputation through impactful work in more traditional areas, such as highway safety—has chosen to make the opioid crisis a priority is noteworthy. the exhibit itself visually underscores two key messages. consisting of 22,000 white pills—one for each of this country’s prescription opioid overdose deaths in the prior year—dramatically mounted on a pure black background, the exhibit instantaneously conveys a clear sense of the enormity of the problem. the fact that the face of a victim has been carved onto each of those 22,000 pills serves as a stark reminder that the epidemic is taking a heavy human toll. as the exhibit itself proclaims, “behind every statistic is a face, a person and a story.” 2 mark a. nordenberg and janice l. pringle those same messages were highlighted in a pair of eyecatching headlines in the december 31, 2017, edition of the pittsburgh tribunereview. the first captured the shocking magnitude of the region’s stillgrowing opioid overdose epidemic: “decade of death: overdoses claim 825 lives in westmoreland county over 10 years.” to add context, this was the toll in a county consisting of suburban communities, small towns, and rural areas, outside the commonwealth’s major urban centers. the second headline focused on the anguish that accompanies each overdose death: “families of overdose victims left to grieve and wonder.” some sense of that pain was conveyed through the accompanying stories of human loss. particularly gripping was the account of the mother who lost two sons in the space of a single evening, when they overdosed on the same batch of fentanyl-l aced heroin in the basement of her home. the article was accompanied by a photograph of her sons’ graves—positioned appropriately, but tragically, right next to each other. my own knowledge of the opioid overdose epidemic was very limited until david hickton, then the united states attorney for the western district of pennsylvania, reached out to ask for help. dave had been a pioneer in mobilizing regional resources to meet the challenges of this crisis. that work attracted national attention, which led to his further service as coauthor of the national heroin task force report, jointly released in 2015 by the u.s. department of justice and the white house office of national drug control policy. dave already was working with a broadbased civic advisory group of western pennsylvanians and asked if pitt’s institute of politics (iop), which i now chair, could organize a group of pitt researchers and university of pittsburgh medical center (upmc) clinicians to complement the efforts of his group. that was the beginning of my immersion in work directed to the ongoing damage being done by the opioid overdose epidemic—to individuals, to families, to communities, and even more broadly, to the fabric of american society. since then, the iop has been actively engaged on multiple fronts. it took the lead in drafting and distributing a continuum of care approach: western pennsylvania’s response to the opioid epidemic, a report offering a framework for meeting this challenge on a regional basis. it also took a lead in preparing—through a process that, though not ultimately successful, was educational—a submission to the macarthur foundation’s $100 million, winnertakeall, grant competition. our hope had been to use those high levels of support to implement a regional plan that could be replicated elsewhere. the iop—in partnership with the u.s. attorney’s office, the program evaluation and research unit (peru) of pitt’s school of pharmacy, and the federal drug enforcement administration (dea)—also has cosponsored a series the heroin and opioid epidemic 3 of daylong, opioid outreach programs designed to promote best practices throughout western pennsylvania. the more familiar a person becomes with their selfless efforts, the more impressed he or she must be with the tireless commitment of the large numbers of people who are devoting their lives to battling this crisis. however, that also makes the unrelenting march of the epidemic, even in the face of such efforts, all the more frightening. the aim of this volume of commonwealth is to enhance the effectiveness of those determined efforts by sharing information and ideas about the opioid epidemic from a range of experiences and perspectives. it begins with a thoughtful commentary from pennsylvania attorney general josh shapiro, who has made the epidemic a priority and championed partnerships between public health and public safety. the remainder of the volume consists of highly complementary articles written by some of the country’s most respected and wellpublished researchers and clinicians in this field. given the nature of our working group, almost all of the authors have pitt or upmc connections, and aside from the attorney general, all are from western pennsylvania. however, the work and reputations of this distinguished group are national and international in scope, and their perspectives will be of value to anyone engaged in the battle against the heroin and opioid epidemic. from the first launch of our efforts in this area, the leadership provided by terry miller, the director of the iop, has been indispensable. earlier in her career, terry had been the founder and first executive director of power (the pennsylvania organization for women in early recovery). her work at power and her ongoing involvement as a volunteer left terry with knowledge, experience, contacts, and a deep reservoir of respect within the community of addiction professionals, all of which proved to be invaluable in the work undertaken by the iop in this area. professor janice pringle, a faculty member in pitt’s school of pharmacy, directs that school’s program evaluation and research unit, which includes both the overdose free pa website and the pennsylvania opioid overdose reduction technical assistance center. in a broad range of ways, but particularly in helping to oversee the development of this issue of commonwealth, jan has contributed insights grounded in her own rich experience, as well as a lot of hard work. it has been a privilege to work with her as coeditor on this project. lynn mirigian, who directs the pennsylvania opioid overdose reduction technical assistance center, played a critical role as a coauthor of two of this volume’s articles. her welldeveloped sense of the efforts being undertaken in 4 mark a. nordenberg and janice l. pringle counties around the commonwealth was a key asset in all of our work, and she became the initial bridge to our peer reviewers. i also want to acknowledge monica gaydos, who did an excellent job of copy editing from her position within the program evaluation and research unit of the school of pharmacy at pitt. we were helped enormously by our colleagues at temple university, the fine public research university located in the “other corner” of the commonwealth. we needed to develop an effective approach to peer review for a collection of articles addressing different aspects of the same general topic, which meant that each article needed to be reviewed both individually and as part of the whole. for that help, we turned to the center for public health law research at temple and its sister group, legal science, llc, which tracks 50 state drug laws relating to the prevention of opioid overdose and death. we received extraordinary help from two key professionals there. scott burris is an international drug policy expert who is a professor of law and public health at temple, where he directs its center for public health law research. elizabeth platt, who had been a senior research associate at that center, now serves as research manager at legal science and in that role, manages the prescription drug abuse policy system, a resource funded by the national institute on drug abuse. they both offered thorough and thoughtful critiques as peer reviewers, enhancing this volume in the process. we also are grateful to heidi grunwald, the director of the institute for survey research and codirector of the center for public health law research at temple, for her help in making these arrangements. we are indebted to the leadership of commonwealth, both for providing us with this opportunity and for being consistently supportive as our work unfolded. four people are deserving of special thanks: j. wesley leckrone of widener university, the editor; michelle atherton of temple, the managing editor; joseph mclaughlin, associate editor and director of the temple university institute for public affairs; and richard stafford of carnegie mellon university, a member of the editorial advisory board and the first person to reach out and propose this special onetopic issue. governor wolf ’s recent declaration that pennsylvania’s heroin and opioid epidemic is a “statewide disaster emergency,” is something that never had been done before with respect to a public health crisis. that action was grounded in a number of findings. two, in particular, are worth repeating here: • the opioid crisis is of such magnitude or severity that emergency action is necessary to protect the health, safety, and welfare of affected citizens in pennsylvania; and the heroin and opioid epidemic 5 • pennsylvania’s opioid crisis impacts all areas of the state—including urban, suburban and rural communities—and all ages—including both young people and older pennsylvanians—and is unprejudiced in its reach and devastation. those frightening characteristics should help ensure that, even in these frequently divisive times, we remain united in our commitment to meet and defeat this crisis. without any doubt, much hard work still lies ahead, and sound policy choices will be essential to maximizing the effectiveness of those efforts. it is the shared hope of everyone involved in the creation of this special issue of commonwealth that it will be a distinctive source of well informed guidance for those fighting to advance this noble cause. mark a. nordenberg joined the university of pittsburgh’s law faculty in 1977 and currently holds the special academic rank of distinguished service professor. he served as dean of pitt’s law school from 1985 to 1993, and as chancellor of the university from 1995 to 2014. currently, he serves as chair of the university’s institute of politics. the institute’s mission is to provide a neutral, nonpartisan forum for elected officials and other civic leaders to consider policy issues of importance to western pennsylvania. in recent years, addressing the opioid overdose epidemic has been one of the institute’s highest priorities. janice l. pringle is an epidemiologist by training, with extensive experience in health services research. she is a professor at the university of pittsburgh school of pharmacy, and the founder and director of the program evaluation research unit (peru) within the university of pittsburgh school of pharmacy. her area of expertise is health services research and organizational health. she has developed a framework for assessing organizational health and guiding systems transformation. dr. pringle has secured over $140 million in grants and has developed health care policy research that has been used to inform policy development at the state and federal levels. treatment, overdose, and finding the road to recovery commonwealth, volume 20, issue 1 (2018). © 2018 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/com.v20i2-3.188. all rights reserved. treatment, overdose, and finding the road to recovery michael t. flaherty private clinical practice previously with st. francis institute for psychiatry and addiction services and the institute for research, education and treatment of addiction knowing is not enough; we must apply. willing is not enough; we must do. —goethe to address the role of treatment in pennsylvania’s overdose challenge, certain ideological impediments must be identified and addressed. a separateness of harm reduction from treatment as different approaches, a separateness of public health and public safety as partners in the solution, of public health from private insurance for treating the illness must all be overcome by a prioritized, unified vision. without this, today’s policies cannot build on the available twenty first-c entury science in both specialty care and general practice—let alone in our communities. coupled with societal factors including universal stigma for the illness and those suffering it, these divides have created fertile ground for today’s predictable epidemic. through collective determination with increased access to described interventions and treatment, including expanded access to medicationassisted treatments and an enhanced, broadened, skilled interdisciplinary and peer workforce built on a “recovery” philosophy, locally implemented efforts with county, state, and federal leadership can reverse the epidemic. the birth and growth of a predictable epidemic what happens when the largest preventable illness in america is historically minimized, undertreated, or simply denied (robert wood johnson foundation 2001; u.s. department of justice 62 michael t. flaherty 2001)? prevention is minimized, and even though effective drug treatment exists, most people who need treatment don’t receive it. there are many reasons for this, including: costs of treatment; demands of other more “acceptable” illnesses; inadequate accessibility or availability of treatment; or the belief of patients that they can handle the problem without treatment, i.e., not being ready to stop using—a symptom of the illness. there is also a lack of health insurance coverage; privacy concerns; and, most recently, the sheer power of the illness that took over 63,000 american lives in 2016—4,642 in pennsylvania alone (lord 2018; u.s. drug enforcement agency and university of pittsburgh school of pharmacy 2017)—all complicated by an even greater barrier: stigma. adding to these historical challenges is the shortage of a sufficiently skilled, prepared, and receptive health care workforce. many who are positioned to address addiction lack adequate training or the knowledge to effectively assess, refer, intervene, or treat patients once they are identified as in need of treatment. even if identified, a treatment capacity exists for only 10.8% who might need it (hoge et al. 2013; hyde 2013). opioid dependence and treatment especially remain fraught with challenges: stigma; skepticism regarding the effectiveness of treatment alternatives; wellintended but often conflicting or underresourced plans of leaders and provider agencies dependent on site-ba sed service; restrictive funding and payment methodologies focused on enrolled clients within their agency; and treatment that is not necessarily grounded in the science of recovery (ondcp 2013). as this alreadydevastating epidemic continues to build destructive momentum, there is a fundamental question facing our country, our commonwealth, and our communities: is this an epidemic that we will mobilize to halt or to at least significantly slow, or is it one that we will minimally address and build industries around? to mobilize effectively, existing ideological dichotomies must be acknowledged and addressed. treatment itself is often held distinct from other solutions such as harm reduction or medication management that should, instead, be viewed as earlystage platforms for treatment and recovery (white and mojertorres 2010). public and private practice and funding remain largely distinct, generating separate systems of public and private care. most notably, when adding the importance of overdose prevention to treatment, “public safety” must be joined and coordinated with public health efforts, just as “prevention” and “harm reduction” must join with treatment in a broader effort to attain and sustain community, family and individual support, health, wellness, and recovery (hickton and leary 2015). given these historical obstacles and others, e.g., treating pain as the fifth vital sign (campbell 1996; kolodny treatment, overdose, and finding the road to recovery 63 et al. 2015), as well as the extraordinary profits that continue to be reaped by some from this illness, this “epidemic” has long been coming and should be no surprise. why treatment has fallen short stigma and denial no barrier to treatment is a more formidable obstacle than stigma, in the many forms that it takes. most fundamentally, even the acceptance of the illness as an illness or disease remains denied by many in society and leadership, creating a deep public bias that is hard to see, let alone overcome. despite an extensive science that documents the illness medically, intergenerationally, and chronically, with lethal outcomes if not addressed, many, including many public leaders, continue to hold the illness as selfcaused, a bad choice gone worse, or a moral weakness for which society should give only limited resources, help, tolerance, and compassion. overlooked is the fact that at some point for each person suffering addiction, without clinical intervention, choice is compromised, if not lost, and society’s denial of this now costs the united states over $700 billion dollars annually (nida 2018c). consider the cost figures (see tables 1 and 2) for 2014 and 2016, the last year for which comparative cost data are available, remembering that the drug abuse epidemic has grown exponentially since then. table 2. pennsylvania overdose data 2014 and 2016 2016 overdose deaths per 100,000 people: 37.9 (5th highest in nation) national average 14.7 2014 overdose deaths per 100,000 people: 12.7 (10th highest in nation) pennsylvania opioid painkiller prescriptions active per 100 citizens, 82 to 95 (21st largest in country) sources: ppg 2017; sauter 2016; cdc 2014. table 1. 2014 and 2016 costs of drug abuse compared to other chronic conditions substance use in 2016 cost society $700 billion annually substance use in 2014 cost society $484 billion annually diabetes in 2014 cost society $131.7 billion annually cancer in 2014 cost society $171.6 billion annually sources: cdc 2014. 64 michael t. flaherty stigma and the lack of unified vision today’s health policy lacks both a unifying vision and, therefore, a unified will to prioritize and mobilize to prevent and treat addiction and build a capacity for community and individual recovery. in fact, the barrier of stigma is reinforced by basic features of the existing system, within both the health care community and the general population. consider, for example, that addiction often is treated as criminal, while pain management is treated as medical. pain management treatment tends to be delivered in medical settings, while addiction, if addressed at all, is more often addressed in public clinics or in jails, or in the case of overdose, by hospital emergency rooms or publicly employed first responders, often in public places such as bathrooms, cars, or churches. stigma is the overarching barrier if we are to solve substance use, addiction, overdose, and the challenge of pain management. today’s health policies and services are built upon accepted societal and medical stigma, against both the illness and the person suffering from it. this is so pervasive that many who struggle with addiction deny it, hide it, and do not seek help for it. hospital ers daily turn away those who have a higher probability for mortality than others admitted for suicidal ideation or other lifethreatening medical conditions (medical stigma), even as those same facilities shun adding treatment capacity, and more costly jail populations and the number of overdoses grow. fewer than 11% of u.s. medical schools teach courses in addiction (morelyforster et al. 2013), and half of today’s graduating physicians report “feeling unprepared” to treat it (mezei and murison 2011). as a result, alternative systems of care and community supports such as nonhospital withdrawal management and rehabilitation, recovery centers, halfway houses, and family and peer supports have emerged to address this major illness outside of mainstream medicine. without the needed medical leadership to restructure a stigmabased system of care, the unifying vision of what is needed to prevent and address overdose or addiction and facilitate both community and individual recovery cannot take shape. today, substance use pleads for attention from medicine. for example, the medical and general population’s understanding of addiction and pain treatment remain separate and divided, e.g., addiction is often seen judgmentally as a weakness, while pain is viewed as a medical condition—at least until it leads to addiction. stigma becomes further translated to clinical treatment when driven more by assured payment and level of service entered than by assessing the nature of the illness presented, matching that assessment to a level of care (meelee et al. 2013), and meeting the treatment, overdose, and finding the road to recovery 65 needs of the person continually along its progressive and at times regressive trajectory by offering each person an opportunity for recovery at each level and encounter. there are other compelling examples of science unaddressed. for example, according to the national institute on drug abuse principles of quality care, any treatment episode for a substance use disorder that is less than 90 days in duration is clinically of little value (nida 2018b). how does pennsylvania stack up against this recommendation? how many in treatment today receive at least a 90day episode of care? shouldn’t this be a policy? it isn’t. or, at the service level, how many providers still claim that the very medications proven effective to treat addiction are a cop-o ut, and are simply replacements for illicit drugs? how many treatment systems involuntarily discharge a person from treatment for exhibiting the symptoms of the very illness for which they sought help, e.g., positive urine screens in treatment? and what makes us believe that those who suffer addiction can just stop? if a person cannot access care and continually fails despite losing his or her job, family, health, or freedom by ending up in jail, does it not speak of the absence of selfcontrol? when a person is revived from his or her fourth overdose and expresses anger at the first responder/samaritan for taking lifesaving action, does it not speak of an absence of mental competence? this is the power of addiction that must be understood and addressed for solutions to be effective. systemic stigma can also be clearly seen in the very language used to describe those suffering from this illness or disease: e.g., “addict,” “junkie,” “dope head,” “substance abuser.” these are all terms that cement a context of fault and add to the resistance, rejection, or failure of treatment. these are “persons suffering with addiction” or “persons in recovery.” language matters, and an “addictionary” designed for the illness exists (kelly, dow, and westerhoff 2010). establishing a vision to address overdose and substance use in pennsylvania and each region, county, or community can be a first step to crafting an effective solution. policies and systems of care should be steered to fulfill this vision. the author has suggested as one vision, “providing each person and community the most efficient and effective care along a continuum of assessed severity and need capable of addressing the illness and initiating recovery.” from within the framework of this vision, lifesaving treatments, including medical stabilization and medication support, could be initiated before more expensive approaches involving hospitalization and rehabilitation are employed, without compromising the goal of attaining individual recovery (white and mojertorres 2010). incarceration, when necessary, should offer 66 michael t. flaherty medical stabilization, the initiation of treatment and recovery, and, upon completion, preparation for safe community reentry from incarceration, including medication and linkage to peer supports. medication-a ssisted treatment in correctional settings has been shown to reduce the risk of overdose upon release (wakeman and rich 2015). because the deployment of these practices is too infrequent, overdoses remain highest in those who have dropped out or been discharged from treatment or who are returning from rehab or jail, because their lower physical tolerances are too easily overcome by the powerful drugs that await them in the community. treatment must be continuous and aligned to the principles of chronic disease management, with coverage and access assured even between systems (e.g., jail and community) or treatment agencies (e.g., outpatient treatment and inpatient care). insufficient treatment capacity, coupled with stronger illegal drugs and the widespread trafficking in those drugs driven by greed, has fueled this predictable epidemic. as to payment, a private feeforservice model, without any record of success in public health, has been foisted upon a national public health problem with constraints that make it difficult to reach those most at risk for overdose or their families. these payment mechanisms shape what is offered as treatment. other reimbursement schemes need to be developed such as funded prevention, brief screening and limited agency funding, case rate funding, and funding for outreach (e.g., peer supports), emergency care coverage, and targeted valuebased funding for highrisk persons so that we can reach those most in need to prevent overdose death. to overcome inherent medical stigma, we must first see it. we must acknowledge that substance use treatment, except for pain management, has become segregated from general medical care and generalist and specialist training and practice (vs. common elements of success: “integrated care” below). as a result, rather than coalescing a prioritized will to address an epidemic, profitable industries have arisen to address parts of it. jails, courts, and child protective services are functioning at, or in some cases beyond, maximum capacity. police have become first responders, new profitable and more addictive medications have been developed, acute treatment systems build on treating other advanced but related medical disorders, emergency rooms see overdoses daily, etc. the needed specialty demands for community prevention, intervention, treatment, and recovery remains resourced to below 3% of the now nearly $700+ billion annual cost of the illness (nida 2016e, 2018c). substance use effects all populations. the opioid epidemic has brought an added 1.35 million americans into poverty and lowered the national life expectancy (now 78.6) in the united states each year for the past six years (nida 2016c; pittsburgh postgazette editorial board 2017; u.s. department treatment, overdose, and finding the road to recovery 67 of health and human services, office of the surgeon general 2016). unique stigma exists also toward the poor, female, adolescent, older, or racial minorities, etc. each has its own face that must be transcended with specificity and a sensitive transformation of science to reach its mark. even treatment itself stigmatizes the person by focusing almost exclusively on the pathology, measuring success as the attainment of abstinence, compliance, and adherence to treatment, too often leaving out the emerging science and positive added outcomes of recovery and the many measures of it (flaherty, kurtz, and white 2014; white and kurtz 2008). with a vision and an awareness of the pervasiveness of stigma we can begin to construct a healthier, more relevant approach to a prevention and treatment system that can bring solutions, hope, and science to this epidemic. treatment capacity and workforce development another barrier to reducing overdoses is the existing capacity for substance use treatment. today, the united states has a national capacity for only 10.8% of those who would meet clinical criteria for such treatment (ondcp 2013). in pennsylvania most programs for those severely addicted operate at capacity and with waiting lists. moreover, the science itself has changed from seeing the illness as an acute or temporary problem (e.g., like a broken bone or a cold) to being potentially lifelong and best addressed within a “continuum of care” as a chronic illness (appendix a). this approach would be like that taken with other chronic conditions such as diabetes, hiv, high blood pressure, depression, etc., and has been described in paradigmchanging research since the turn of the century (mclellan et al. 2000; scott and dennis 2007; flaherty 2006). health care for chronic conditions is very different from the care for acute, episodic illnesses, and our state agencies and treatment providers, already too few, struggle in an earntosurvive, fee-f orservice model often offering only what the specific location and level of care provides. substance use calls for experiential (i.e., in real world) support while having vigorous referral to the levels of medical care necessary to best address everyone (commonwealth of pennsylvania department of drug and alcohol programs 2014; meelee et al. 2013). but the severity of the illness and its science have moved faster than the services and skills of the workforce to address it in a community. new technologies, medications, professional collaborations, complex multiple diagnoses, increased collaboration with peer and family supports, care management, electronic health records, parity, and health insurance or managed care have all led to increased expectations for 68 michael t. flaherty modernization without increased dollars to meet the added burden to front line providers. in short, today’s system, while deserving our full respect for what it does accomplish, is drastically overburdened by existing calls for service, modernization, technology, change, and accountability. as a result, today’s substance use specialty workforce suffers a 30%–40% annual attrition of workers (samhsa 2013). additionally, the illness appears in all general medical conditions and settings, creating a need for exponential crossdisciplinary integrated care and clinical expansion, training, and development (samhsa 2013). we need to strengthen our application of prevention science (kolodny et al. 2015; tarter, cochran, and reynolds 2018), expand opportunities for earlier intervention in general medical care, and increase treatment capacity, especially with medication support—linking each person and his or her family to recovery science and peer and family supports. substance use treatment needs to be a focus across all medical disciplines to become a more modernized interdisciplinary workforce with screens and assessments, integrated treatment, and ongoing recovery checkups in all general and specialty medical settings, e.g., primary care, health centers, general health care, and across all hospital disciplines. this broader, more educated, and more competent collaborative health care workforce with peer and community involvement is the only workforce capable of reaching addiction and ultimately reducing overdose (hoge et al. 2013, 2017). addiction, overdose, and the brain—the power of addiction addiction has a complex biological nature. this illness has the power to impact a person’s brain and create an insatiable immediacy for the need for drugs that removes judgment from the person, at least temporarily, obviating the choice to not seek more drugs or to never use again. neurologists now believe this may possibly be tied to repetitive but rebuffed electrical impulses (cravings) in the brain. short of overdose and death, this loss of choice is the first, worst, and most underestimated manifestation of the illness. it can be said that the person at this point does not really have an addiction; instead, the addiction has him or her. moreover, studies have shown there is a genetic transfer of vulnerability for the illness to offspring, creating a predisposition for increased risk in the future (nida 2016a; sliboda, glantz, and tarter 2012). addiction, at whatever level of severity (mee-l ee et al. 2013), too often leads to a life of misery and death, with generational and broader societal impacts and decades of cost. for these reasons, the american society on addiction medicine and the national institute of drug abuse classify addiction as a treatment, overdose, and finding the road to recovery 69 “disease” (asam 2017; nida 2018a). this is a classification that society, policymakers, public health professionals, law enforcement, and others must understand and embrace if we are to properly assess the disease and appreciate its power, lethality, and costs. only by doing so can we adequately design the steps to effectively address addiction while building individual, family, and community recovery based on medical safety and continued wellness. the power of addiction can remove choice cognitively and experientially. once a person is stabilized medically, treatment must not just address pathology but also access and build recovery strengths in individuals, families, and the community, i.e., build measurable recovery capital, resiliency, and strength (granfield and cloud 1999). treatment must be medically precise, personcentered, and ongoing, while continually offering hope and recovery. a consensus definition of recovery, as a unifying construct for all, was achieved in 2012 by samhsa: recovery is a process of change through which individuals improve their health and wellness, live a self-d irected life, and strive to reach their full potential. samhsa has delineated four major dimensions that support a life in recovery: health, home, purpose and community. the vision of recovery is grounded in medical stability and returned cognitive capacity. both take time. when treatment becomes the problem—pain, prescriptions, and diversion reportedly, as many as 80% of those who are currently addicted to opioids began their addiction with prescription pain medications (nida 2018a; muhuri, groener, and davies 2013; jones 2013). in 1995, the president of the american pain society introduced a campaign entitled, “pain is the fifth vital sign,” which encouraged health care professionals to assess pain with the same “zeal” as they did other vital signs. this campaign suggested increased access to opioids for chronic, noncancer pain (campbell 1996), and was followed by thousands of painrelated educational presentations, sponsorships, and grants funded by big pharma across the country (u.s. gao 2003). during this campaign, some researchers inaccurately proclaimed the risk of addiction and tolerance with real pain to be low, adding that concerns about addiction should not constrain prescribing (porter and jick 1980; fishbain et al. 2008). prescriptions of opioids soared, as has addiction (u.s. gao 2003). today, pennsylvania has active opioid prescriptions sufficient for up to 90% 70 michael t. flaherty of its citizens to have their own full prescription. pharma is big business in pennsylvania and across the nation (cdc 2017a), and pain relief is a big part of big pharma. seeking quick solutions for pain and addiction, and capturing the enormous profits that can be generated, is big business. while these medications can be a godsend for some, for others they can advance and compound the illness, causing iatrogenic dependence or avoidance of treatment itself by increasing selfdosing. studies show that conservatively 26% of those being treated for pain develop dependence (bantagreen et al. 2009). if not closely medically managed with sustained personcentered care, principles of recovery, and concern for community and population health, diversion becomes a real possibility and problem. with over 255 million opioid pain prescriptions active in 2016, it is estimated that some 11 million americans used these prescriptions illicitly (volkow 2017). personal medical care is required in all addictions, whether they originated via illicit drugs, addiction treatment, or iatrogenic pain management. the medications used as a part of the treatment for opioid dependence must be promptly available but carefully managed to allow for patient relief while minimizing the possibility of diversion of these medications for illicit use, profit, and harm to the community. achieving better medical management of such medications is necessary, as is maintaining a continuity for treatment should iatrogenic dependence occur (u.s. department of health and human services (hhs) 2013). pennsylvania’s model for methadone treatment, which includes close medical management, might provide a successful, proven model for all agonist1 treatment for addiction. new pain management protocols and guidelines (aapm 2015) have now been developed, suggesting “sliding scale” protocols for pain treatment, often beginning with nonopioid medications. this said, prescribing practices, diversion, and narrow pain management treatment are large sources of today’s epidemic and barriers to reducing overdose. on january 1, 2017, pennsylvania launched its own prescription drug monitoring program (pdmp), which will allow physicians to more accurately know if patients are “doctor shopping,” or using opioids or other medications that could be problematic to treatment. a strong clinical use of computerized monitoring has been shown to reduce overdose nationally (cdc 2017b). pennsylvania is attributing a 12%–18% reduction in opioid prescriptions in its first year to this program (lord 2018). (for more information on pdmps in pa, see mirigian et al. in this issue.) the economy and the cartels in the “perfect storm” from which this epidemic has emerged, several lethal and converging forces have been identified to have fueled the epidemic and treatment, overdose, and finding the road to recovery 71 undermined efforts to end it: absence of a unifying vision, denial and unaddressed stigma, inadequate medical preparation, anemic prevention, overburdened treatment, a weary and nonintegrative workforce, excessive and uninformed prescribing in the quest to eliminate pain, and opportunities to profit from the illness itself. a final force is the economy and the drug cartels. nationally prominent author and journalist sam quinones has laid out what our federal drug enforcement agency also has reported: pennsylvania, and appalachia more generally, are major targets for the distribution of cheaper and enhanced heroin from outside our borders that can become lowercost replacements for prescribed opioids (quinones 2015). shunning mafiaa nd gangcontrolled cities, mexican cartels from small towns (e.g., xalisco, mexico) have targeted more rural american communities (e.g., central ohio, southwestern pennsylvania, and west virginia) where their heroin can capture alreadyexisting markets spawned by the heavily prescribed use and misuse of prescribed opioid medications. in a sense, the cartels let strong medical centers and physicians set the stage for their market. it is no accident that, as prescription practices become monitored and are more constrained, illicit heroin has become more accessible and has been made more powerful with fentanyl (often from china) and the even more deadly carfentanyl. in this progression, without extraordinary intervention, overdoses will increase. those distributing these less costly, highly lethal substances prey on poverty and victimize captive users as part of their “business as usual” underworld economy. this explains why there is a need for the joint participation of public safety or law enforcement in any overdose reduction plan. further, with many communities having lost industries and jobs, cultures have arisen in which drug use is common, and in which drug distribution and income, given a seeming lack of alternatives, has become a tolerated part of a struggling existence (vance 2016). in such communities, drug use goes up, as do specialty medical care needs, where prescriptions can be obtained. too often these communities and the prescribed medications become the foundation for an economy based largely on selling medications while reverting simultaneously to alternative cheaper, illicit drugs from the cartels. now we have the perfect storm for the epidemic. plans and resources: treatment and a coordinated, continuing need for action in addressing opioid use, overdose, and barriers to treatment, science does offer twentyfirstcentury practices that, when combined with local implementation and enhanced services, are proving effective in reducing overdose while enhancing treatment access and building community resilience and 72 michael t. flaherty recovery. a partial summary of recent national efforts, and pennsylvania’s plan and efforts, can be found in appendix b. in scanning these many documents, the reader will quickly see the array and magnitude of both prevention strategies and treatment activities that can be brought to bear to address overdose and reduce death, while simultaneously initiating treatment and recovery. a summary of common strategies proving effective, based on a review of these documents, is below. best practice in overdose treatment—actions prevention as the best first practice prevention as a science is covered in another article in this volume (tarter, cochran, and reynolds). suffice it to say that more than any other proposed or actual solution, preventing the problem in the first place is the optimal solution. also, by addressing overdose with prevention you can initiate and strengthen treatment. kolodny and colleagues (2015) have framed just such a model for public health to address the opioid epidemic based on proven prevention science. in their model to address overdose, they align existing samhsa prevention science paradigmatic classifications to build the following preventative model. primary (universal) prevention the aim of primary prevention is to reduce the incidence of a disease or condition. opioid addiction is typically chronic, lifelong, difficult to treat, and associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality. thus, bringing the opioid addiction epidemic under control requires effort to prevent new cases from developing, including greatly reducing access to such medications for pain management, which can lead to iatrogenic dependence. secondary (selective) prevention the aim of secondary prevention is to screen for a health condition after its onset, but before it causes serious complications. efforts to identify and treat opioid-ad dicted individuals early during the disease are likely to reduce the risk of overdose, psychosocial deterioration, transition to injection opioid use, and medical complications. one sciencebased guide of such prevention is nida’s “principles of substance abuse prevention for early childhood” (2016b). tertiary (indicated) prevention tertiary prevention strategies involve both therapeutic and rehabilitative measures once a disease is firmly established. the goal of tertiary prevention treatment, overdose, and finding the road to recovery 73 of opioid addiction is to prevent overdose deaths, medical complications, psychosocial deterioration, transition to injection drug use, and injection related infectious diseases. doing so is accomplished mainly by ensuring that opioid-ad dicted individuals can access effective and affordable opioid addiction treatment. here, timely access to treatment, especially those including medicationassisted treatments such as buprenorphine, methadone, and naltrexone (pill or injectable), would fit into a prevention strategy for both the individual and the community. additionally, certain “harm reduction” strategies would be made more available, e.g., syringe exchange programs and readily available narcan accessibility. such prevention strategy needs to be incorporated into pennsylvania’s strategic prevention framework and plan and implemented in each county. by adding what is presented in detail by tarter, cochran, and reynolds in this issue to kolodny’s generally accepted schematic rubric, pennsylvania could indeed have one of the finest prevention programs in the nation. treatment outreach an overdose is best addressed by quickly reviving the person from the overdose and connecting him or her immediately to further treatment. this is best achieved by applying naloxone (aka narcan) to revive the person if unconscious, and then connecting the survivor, via a “warm handoff,” to an agency or professional who can assist the person to obtain treatment without delay. today in pennsylvania, the person must agree to such treatment until an involuntary admission or “hard handoff” law is justified and is enacted in pennsylvania (e.g., upon second overdose or through earlier family intervention). overdose drug deaths far exceed death by suicide, e.g., in 2015 the national institute on mental health reported just over 40,000 deaths attributed to suicide (many by drugs) vs. 54,404 overdose drug deaths (rudd, seth, and scholl 2016). both pa. 2010 act 50 article xxiii-a , section (1) xvii and the mental health procedures act of 1976 should be reviewed to answer key questions such as: is the overdosed person evidencing a “clear and present danger to self or others” with a likelihood of possible death within 30 days? involuntary admission can be to outpatient or inpatient settings. on december 8, 2017, pennsylvania senator jay costa (d43) introduced senate bill 391 to allow families to obtain courtmandated treatment. while likely to have opposition from civil rights advocates, payers, and even many in recovery, given the power of today’s drugs and the severity of the illness with related loss of 74 michael t. flaherty mental competence (hijacked brain) and hope, such examination and revised laws are necessary. thirtyeight states, including pennsylvania, currently have some form of involuntary admission law for substance use, but these laws are too cumbersome, unknown, and weak compared to similar laws for mental health. any new law should include overdose survivors, families of those lost, providers, civil rights and peer advocates, and all counties that will need to educate the public and implement the revised law. in addressing opioid overdose, individual recovery cannot begin unless the person is alive and physically able to initiate it. today’s typical treatments are too institutionally centric to reach those most at risk. outreach and novel points of access (e.g., mobile treatment, needle exchanges, food banks, firehouses, hotels, community safe centers, trained pastors, and peer linkage) are potentially productive initiatives, as is involuntary treatment. pennsylvania has been historically more conservative in its approaches to overdose. it is worth noting, though, that some states and major cities have found successful avenues to treatment through involuntary treatment and by expanding harm reduction approaches such as access to safedrug consumption/t reatment sites, and by changing police responses to lowlevel crimes such as taking the person to treatment or safe consumption/treatment sites. seattle’s law enforcement assisted diversion (lead) program is one model highly supported by both the police and the community (collins, lonczak, and clifase 2015). throughout ohio and in pittsburgh, pennsylvania, police have recently initiated quick response teams as a followup to any overdose.2 what makes these newer harmreduction approaches appealing is that they reduce human suffering while lowering overdose and societal costs (e.g., incarceration, health, etc.) and improving access to treatment. addressing overdose prevention mandates a harm-re duction component within the treatment continuum. keeping a person alive, while offering an alternative to untreated addiction, is society’s mission and task. beyond that the disease will win. medical stabilization and treatment medical stabilization from opioid use disorder itself is necessary for a dependent person to return to normal functioning and quality of life and to avoid the many potential consequences of opioid dependence such as trauma, suicide, hiv and hepatitis c infection, family suffering, and early death. treatment has been proven to address these consequences while improving the overall social functioning of the person and family wellness. the surgeon general report (u.s. hhs 2016) and national institute on drug abuse (2018b) outline well the effectiveness of opioid treatment. treatment, overdose, and finding the road to recovery 75 there are a variety of approaches in treating opioid use. the three most common outpatient approaches are treatment in opioid treatment programs (otps), generally in methadone clinics, which are monitored and regulated by both the state and federal government (samhsa, dea); officebased opiate treatment programs (obots), generally in buprenorphine dispensing centers, which are unmonitored individual specialty–trained medical practices; and abstinencebased specialty substance use treatment, which can include some medication, e.g., naltrexone (pill or injectable) or psychiatric medication, but usually do not use agonist medication. these comprise most of pennsylvania’s providers and are licensed and monitored by the state. given the severity of addiction, residential and inpatient care may also be warranted, if available. these, too, may include medicationsupported recovery. obots, the fastestgrowing approaches, have strengths and weaknesses, including easier access to medication but lighter medical monitoring, less counseling, and greater opportunity for medication diversion (alderks 2017). some more sophisticated otps, which have by regulation increased medical oversight and counseling, have begun to incorporate buprenorphine and naltrexone (i.e., vivitrol) into their treatment protocols, which previously had used only methadone. this progression seems to be moving toward a “comprehensive opioid treatment center” model, which would seem both clinically and scientifically evolutionary and a positive step for all. mention must be made of treating opioido r heroindependent pregnant women and their babies. it is estimated that today some 2.1 million americans use illicit opioids and another 467,000 are addicted to heroin. studies also indicate that for every five individuals with this illness, there will be one child born with dependence and withdrawal or neonatal abstinence syndrome (volkow 2014). across america, births of such babies and the increased burden on the child welfare system are growing at unprecedented rates. the cost and implications of this growth are astronomical if the child is untreated and can be lifelong. however, with early recognition, good prenatal care, and substance use treatment, the outcomes can be brought to nearnormal in comparison to nonaddicted populations. there is a welldeveloped and exacting science, for both mother and child.3 this population should be a priority, and to its credit, pennsylvania has recently funded a center of excellence, the maternal addiction treatment, education, and research (mater), at thomas jefferson university in philadelphia. thomas jefferson university has been a national and international leader in working with the population for decades, and the work of its new center of excellence needs to be vigorously disseminated. 76 michael t. flaherty augmenting these “outreach” and “treatment” services are local peer groups and 12step fellowships, such as narcotics anonymous, alcoholics anonymous or alanon, and many nonfellowship free supports such as sage’s army (western pennsylvania) family resource center (www.familyresourcectr .org), bridge to hope (western pennsylvania), and other organizations generally accessible through local county drug and alcohol programs. all can assist in identifying sources of help and potential avenues to recovery. some, like bridge to hope, offer parent and family support groups to help cope with loss and ongoing grief as well as to enable family members to identify problems and empower them to action. community reinforcement and family training (craft) is but one proven educational and training program that prepares family members for earlier, scientifically grounded intervention (foote et al. 2014). these peers, fellowships and supports, and family groups complement formal treatment and are a modern “must,” as part of any ultimate safety net for communities. they have an impact that cannot be overestimated as being vital to any ultimate solution. all treatment approaches are not equal, nor are they interchangeable. the severity of the illness must be accurately assessed and properly matched to the appropriate level of care so that medical safety and stabilization can be achieved first, creating an opportunity for longer-te rm treatment and recovery. too often individuals are turned away from treatment, especially in hospital emergency room settings or by waiting lists in outpatient programs. such actions very often negate the desire for treatment and increase the probability of overdose. a personal review of overdose death records (unpublished) by this author has shown that over 63% of the nearly 100 who died from opioid/heroin overdose had sought prior treatment or had prior criminal justice involvement before their demise. why did that treatment or encounter not stick? was the treatment appropriate to the presenting need of the person? would a peer support or medication have made a difference? when treatment is accessed, the person should be carefully screened for the severity of the presenting illness. the american society on addictive medicine patient placement criteria (meelee et al. 2013) and the pennsylvania placement criteria (commonwealth of pennsylvania 2014) are two excellent examples of the guidance now required in pennsylvania and some other states to properly place a person in a matched level of care. further assessment of the severity of the illness can be enhanced through the use of any of several more focused addiction severity measurement scales, e.g., addiction severity index (asi) (mclellan et al. 1980);4 or with withdrawal management instruments such as the clinical opiate withdrawal scale (cows) (wesson and ling, 2003), or the severity of opiate dependence scale (sutherland et al. treatment, overdose, and finding the road to recovery 77 1986). residential or hospital care may first be warranted by the results of this critical initial assessment. if outpatient treatment is recommended, methadone (otp) or buprenorphine (obot) or naltrexone injection (nonagonist vivitrol) treatment should be considered as being more successful in preventing overdose and providing more time to stabilize the patient for early recovery. standard outpatient treatment may not use agonist medication. however, in today’s populations of stronger opioids and heroin, both the world health organization5 and samhsa (2016) recommend that all individuals with an opioid dependence diagnosis be considered for medicationsupported treatment. standard outpatient treatment may use naltrexone or the monthly injectable vivitrol or other nonagonist medications to fortify abstinence. vivitrol, an opioid blocking agent, is also used in otps and obots when it has been determined medically safe to do so. it is also successfully used with those newly returning to the community from jail or rehab. sadly, only 20% of the people addicted to opioids today receive treatment (u.s. hhs, office of the surgeon general 2016). this problem is made even more acute by the insufficient preparation of large numbers of practicing u.s. physicians in the treatment of addictions. only 2.2% of all physicians are approved to use the most common treatment medication, buprenorphine, and 90% of those 2.2% are practicing in urban areas, leaving most rural counties without proper care (nida 2016d). many barriers and challenges exist for communities to recruit and retain physicians (or nurse practitioners) trained in addictions or to attract enough opioidtreatment practitioners (deflavio et al. 2015; huhn and dunn 2017; stein et al. 2015). increasing properly managed access to medication support may be the greatest single treatment step that can be taken today to slow overdose deaths and give treatment and recovery a chance. once matched to one of seven possible levels of care (meelee et al. 2013) for initial treatment, the person should proceed along a continuum or levels of care over time based on assessed progress and medical judgment. once in treatment, the person usually remains in treatment for a sufficient period to be medically stable and initiate early recovery. as noted above, the national institute on drug abuse suggests a 90day continuum of care as minimal (nida 2018b). medication-a ssisted treatment often takes years and may continue for a lifetime. still, in general, for every dollar spent in substance use treatment minimally a $7 savings to society is returned; $8 for medicationsupported treatment due partly to decreases in criminal behavior and reincarceration (nida 2018c). put simply, treatment more than pays for itself! 78 michael t. flaherty common elements in successful treatment and overdose prevention having underscored earlier prevention and access to specialized, patient matched, skilled treatment with general medical care as a basic need, the author’s personal experience and a review of the clinical guidance listed in appendix a has allowed him to identify common elements as cross-c utting, impactful, and promising. these common elements for such success are discussed in the next sections. ready access to treatment and a continuum of care for a treatment system to be effective, it must provide ready access to treatment and a continuum of care over a sufficient length of time so that the patient achieves personal safety and medical stability and is positioned to have a realistic opportunity for recovery. twentyfour/seven crisis centers, urgent care centers, mobile units, and emergency rooms, when properly organized and staffed, have proven to be effective as points of first access for medical care and the initiation of medication and treatment (d’onofrio, o’connor, and pantalon 2015). medicationassisted treatment (mat) timely access to medication-assisted treatment is also critical to the creation of an effective treatment system. these medications are used to help a patient function without illicit opioids or alcohol while balance is gradually restored to the brain circuits that have been altered by prolonged substance use. it should be noted that patients who receive mat for fewer than 90 days have not shown improved outcomes; similarly, detox alone is almost universally not successful (u.s. hhs, office of the surgeon general 2016, 4–21). some studies suggest that individuals who receive mat for fewer than three years are more likely to relapse than those who are in treatment for three or more years (american medical association 1998; joseph, stancliff, and langrod 2000; kakko et al. 2003). three medications are most commonly used to treat opioid use disorders: methadone, buprenorphine, and naltrexone. more recently the samhsa (2016) and american medical association (2018) published guidance that, recognizing the increased addictive power of today’s medications and illicit drugs, suggests: opioid withdrawal alone is not recommended for treatment of opioid use disorders in most patients because of increased risks of overdose death and infectious disease, particularly hiv through intravenous drug use, following detoxification (moderate quality evidence, strong treatment, overdose, and finding the road to recovery 79 recommendation). in the absence of contraindications, medically supervised opioid agonist treatment should be offered to patients. buprenorphine/naloxone is the preferred first-l ine treatment. methadone is an alternative in certain patient populations (highquality evidence, strong recommendation). (samhsa 2016, 338) naloxone/narcan community awareness, training, and ready access to naloxone (narcan) throughout communities are critical to saving lives, thereby preserving opportunities for treatment. among those needing access are active users, counselors, families, first responders, schools, ers, hotels, jails, fire stations, and other locations that may be potential points of connection between survivors and providers of treatment via “warm handoff” or persontoperson connectivity. anyone with a diagnosis of opioid dependence and his or her family members should have narcan. of course, access to narcan will not be enough if those who have it do not know how to use if effectively. what also is needed, therefore, is strong community prevention awareness and training, including special training (e.g., craft, how to use narcan) for parents and other family members. such interventions generally are protected by supportive good samaritan laws, which provide an important measure of legal protection for those providing help as volunteers. prescription drug monitoring program active participation and coordination of prescribing via a prescription drug monitoring program (pdmp) by all prescribers is another key step. pennsylvania became the 49th state to adopt such a program through act 191 of 2014. that program went into effect on january 1, 2017, and already seems to have made a difference in prescribing rates. (for more information on pdmps in pennsylvania, see mirigian et al. in this issue.) opioid prescribing also can be reduced by following cdc guidelines and alternative pain management techniques.6 other effective and suggested strategies expand capacity open bed capacity must be increased to meet acute needs. a key policy step would be to seek adjustments to federal restrictions (e.g., federal imd exclusion) to allow expanded medicaid and tricare coverage of residential care. pennsylvania should advocate for this, either as a change in law or a waiver to existing law, and should seek reductions in federal restrictions to speed 80 michael t. flaherty accessing methadone treatment. another important step would be to establish 24/7 available crisis walkin centers for behavioral health that can determine a diagnosis and provide up to 23 hours of onsite (non24hour inpatient) care before “warm handoff” discharge to inpatient admission, rehab, or outpatient continuing care. medication initiation should also be available at these sites. focus on highrisk populations outreach should be expanded to high-risk populations, such as pregnant and addicted women and newborns, drug court participants and postincarceration populations, post-detox/rehab populations, youth (18–25), and returning veterans. drug takeback boxes should be more extensively deployed. a system that provides 24/7 access to care points across the state should be developed, and a priority should be assigned for targeted prevention and enhanced training for parents, clergy, and others in the community. make more expansive use of specialty courts there should be expanded use of drug courts and, where appropriate, family court, guided by twentyfirstcentury best practices, including peer support.7 best practices from other parts of the country, such as the lead (seattle) model, should be considered for adoption here, and there should be additional skill resource and skill development for law enforcement. provide adequate time for treatment there needs to be support for retention in treatment sufficient to achieve medical stabilization and early recovery. withdrawal management or “detox” alone should only be offering medical stabilization as the precursor to treatment. beyond treatment, programs should offer recovery as a return to a positive life for oneself and in the community. individual, family, and community recovery measures should be established to build and measure clinical outcomes and resiliency, i.e., strengthened individual and community recovery capital. for sustained overdose and substance use reduction, implement a statewide recovery-o riented system of care (samhsa 2012; white 2008). ninetyday minimal care should be encouraged and should be a monitored and managed goal. collaborate and implement community plans leaders in each community should initiate community meetings that bring together citizens, public health and public safety leaders, and payers to design and implement a local plan that includes initiatives such as addressing stigma treatment, overdose, and finding the road to recovery 81 and overdose while building individual and community resilience and health, i.e., increasing recovery capital. recovery capital is measurable as the quantity and quality of internal and external resources that the community can bring to bear on the initiation and maintenance of recovery. having a local plan empowers each community but does not replace broader efforts to address root causes of the problem, e.g., increased and improved medical training and preparedness, increased law enforcement efforts, and aligned new policy development for communities to know, and upon which to act. all final solutions are local. families and communities are the beginning and end of those solutions. collect and learn from data each overdose should be anonymously reviewed to strengthen local systems, including the study of failed earlyintercept points for system improvement. this data can be used to understand trends and to improve local efforts, while larger efforts support broader and longerterm solutions, i.e., building recovery capital. the thoughtful use of this data will also convey to each family that no death is without meaning and that from each loss, system and community strength will grow: hope arises from loss. the identities of victims are not needed, so hippa or other confidentiality concerns need not be barriers. augment professional efforts the building of peer and family supports in each community can augment the existing professional workforce. local universities or colleges, along with professional counselor organizations, should build career pathways for those in sustained recovery or those with firsthand experience of the illness (e.g., family members) to become “peer supports” that can help individuals, treatment agencies, or families and communities in ways that other professionals cannot. for example, peers can be a warm handoff person, support a person to enter treatment, reach out to families who need help, increase retention in treatment, assist with transportation, etc. pennsylvania now has a certification path for peer supports,8 and increasingly public health payers are beginning to recognize and pay for these services. the development of these workers, whether paid or volunteer, is proving essential to the longterm realization of success in addressing overdose and ultimately preventing addiction. peers are not a replacement for professional treatment but are an enhancement of it. in america today, there are over 40 million adults living in recovery (white 2012), and one in four families is personally affected by substance use (nida 2016c). 82 michael t. flaherty strengthen integrated care the twentyfirst-c entury model for care is integrated care with parity. in recent years, large health systems and medical practices have found that communitybased generalist outpatient care (e.g., primary care, community health centers, group practices, etc.) can be more efficient in reaching all populations with quality care (christensen et al. 2009). what if each such outpatient center had a certified addiction specialist physician or nurse practitioner and behavioral counselor with peer accessibility that then naturally brought this specialized service to the community? these centers would indeed be meeting community needs without having to face so many other issues and barriers, e.g., lack of knowledge, access, losing patients in referrals. in san francisco, at the zuckerberg san francisco general hospital, all physicians in all specialties are trained to assess and treat addiction in the location where the patient is seen—with addictioncertified specialists on 24/7 call.9 in boston, based on a community needs assessment, massachusetts general hospital opened specialized addiction services with 24/7 access to all levels of care, including sameday buprenorphine treatment and referral. to assure no one gets lost in the cracks, each patient is assigned a recovery coach.10 outpatient integration of care is also growing via 23/7 crisis stabilization centers linked to hospitals, and behavioral experts being added to generalist sites such as primary care, health centers, family practice groups, etc. recovery—the path to hope and solution informed national and local leaders have all concluded that we can neither legislate nor arrest our way out of this epidemic. we cannot even treat our way out of it without long-te rm specifically designed universal, selected, and indicated prevention strategies built upon a unified vision and driven by a coordinated and determined implementation effort that recognizes existing barriers and overcomes them. this means doing nearly everything noted in this document at the local level—with leadership from science and policymakers alongside strong citizen involvement. the solution, like the problem, is complex and requires complex adaptive reasoning with culturally sensitive community approaches and systems, such as those used in addressing diabetes, hiv, zika, and other complex, societal illnesses (institute of medicine 2001). today’s established institutionbased medical model can’t go far enough to meet the present challenges. we must first establish the will and a vision that can lead to recovery and hope—recovery for each person, each family, each community, each county, each state, leading to recovery for our nation. a vision that can do this is required. we cannot afford to cast off a single person without simultaneously losing our way. treatment, overdose, and finding the road to recovery 83 who we are as a society is the true challenge of addiction and this epidemic. it has been a long time coming (see burke and buchanich in this issue). the challenge of addiction and all its societal manifestations needs to be continually addressed for its many root causes. adapting a solution using complex, adaptive approaches developed by local groups across america and around the world means inserting their voices with best practice and the emerging science and solutions for recovery. this twentyfirstcentury “medical model” (barber 2012; flaherty 2012) promises to each person and family who seeks help an opportunity for recovery, i.e., an improved quality of life, and not just partial care or the maintenance of misery. communities across america are insisting on the values of wellness and recovery as their standard of care with their limited public dollars and stronger collective approaches to the problem. recovery, as defined above, is offered to everyone, family and the community at large, by bringing shared goals and measures into a partnership with applied best science and practice. recovery can occur with medication or without medication. recovery has many pathways with specific phases and can be measured in each person and family as increased resilience, strength, and wellness (individual recovery capital); or in each community (community recovery capital) as assets to prevent, treat, and end addiction growth (flaherty, kurtz, and white 2014; white and kurtz 2008, 26). known as “recovery-o riented systems of care” (rosc) for mental health and substance use, rosc is nothing short of transformative as it moves health systems away from institution-ba sed, crisisoriented, acute, deficit-f ocused, and professionally directed and controlled models of care to a vision of care that is directed by each community and those people in recovery in the community (christensen, grossman, and hwang 2009; institute of medicine 2001; samhsa 2012). a recoveryoriented system of care, when applied, is a grassrootsoriginated, complex, adaptive systems approach. it is a network of indigenous and professional services and relationships that builds the health of each community from within with prevention, early intervention, and treatment linked to short-t erm, longterm, and sustained recovery of individuals, families, and the community. further, rosc builds the local values and policies into a culture and environment that will remain continuously supportive of these recovery practices in general medical (e.g., integrated and primary care) and specialty care (e.g., acute substance use treatment). a rosc system joins the community with providers and leaders to adopt and implement principles and objectives used in implementation, e.g., in a county (hancock, ohio), a city (philadelphia), or in states such as connecticut, texas, north carolina, ohio, etc. (kelly and white 2011). rosc measures are now embedded in the federal funding to each state for implementation within that state’s block grant. a rosc system is not a federal, state, or local 84 michael t. flaherty agency, but a community network of indigenous and professional services and relationships that can achieve and support the longterm recovery of individuals and families within the larger cultural and policy environment of each community in which overdose is to be ended through specifically designed prevention, early-i ntervention, treatment, and longterm recovery (samhsa 2010). by combining the strategies of overdose prevention (including harm reduction) with best science and practice within a rosc, shorta nd long-t erm solutions to this epidemic become accessible and hope returns as a reality. resources and a full bibliography of this modern science, including evaluations of it, are available at www.samhsa.gov (search: recovery); williamwhitepapers.com; the recovery institute at harvard university (info@recoveryanswers.org); the samhsafunded addiction technology transfer centers (www.attcnetwork.org); or the institute for research, education and training in the addictions (ireta) in pittsburgh, pa (www.ireta .org). rosc, in part or in whole, is now emerging across the globe and in over 30 states. rosc, with the system changes noted in this document, brings state, county, and community leadership, guidance, and implementation for longterm resolution of the epidemic, stigma, and illness. it is hope made real through an empowered community. our policymakers need to understand that, while there are no quick solutions to the problem of addiction and overdose, a communitybased solution joined with science, best practice, and local systems of care offers to pennsylvania—and the country—the best option for a longterm solution to today’s opioid challenge. it addresses the barriers and challenges while offering a sustainable twentyfirstcentury model of care for each person that can end an epidemic through the recovery from its causes. treatment, overdose, and finding the road to recovery 85 appendix a the continuum of care to address addiction (surgeon general 2016) enhancing health primary prevention early intervention treatment recovery support promoting addressing screening intervening through removing barriers optimum physical individual and and detecting medication, and providing and mental environmental substance use counseling, and other supports to aid the health and wellrisk factors problems at an supportive services to long-term recovery being, free from for substance early stage and eliminate symptoms process. includes substance misuse, use through providing brief and achieve and a range of social, through health evidence-based intervention, as maintain sobriety, educational, legal, communication programs, needed. physical, spiritual, and other services and access to policies, and and mental health, that facilitate health care strategies. and maximum recovery, wellness, services, income functional ability. and improved and economic levels of care quality of life. security, and include: outpatient workplace services; intensive certainty. outpatient/partial hospitalization services; residential/ inpatient services; and medicallymanaged intensive inpatient services. appendix b: summary of national, pennsylvania, and other overdose prevention plans and actions this summary is not meant to be exhaustive of all efforts but does reflect links to recent key federal, pennsylvania, and others states’ resources and efforts to address overdose. national resources to address overdose key national guiding documents and resources can be found in the u.s. department of health and human services (www.hhs.gov), the national center for disease control (www.cdc.gov), the substance abuse and mental health services administration (www.samhsa.gov), the national institute for drug abuse (www.drugabuse.gov), the health resources and services administration (www.hrsa.gov), the white house office of national drug control and policy (www.ondcp.gov), the american society for addiction medicine (www.asam.org), the american psychiatric association (www.psychiatry .org), and within health care-focused foundations such as the pew charitable trusts (www.pewtrusts.org), or insurance plans and managed care companies 86 michael t. flaherty such as community care behavioral health in pennsylvania (www.ccbh.org) or nationally, optum health (www.optum.com). once at the site, search “opioids” or “overdose.” many of these entities have their recommendations combined in the november 2016 surgeon general’s report: facing addiction in america (see: addiction.surgeongeneral.gov/). in july 2017, the newly commissioned white house task force submitted its “interim plan” calling for a declaration of a national state of emergency, to increase beds and promote barrier regulation removal, among other things. this full “interim” report is available at: www.whitehouse.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/ondcp/commissioninterim -report.pdf. pennsylvania resources to address overdose pennsylvania itself has produced several notable plans replete with recommendations. pennsylvania and the university of pittsburgh school of pharmacy have long collaborated to offer a technical assistance center that provides a wealth of information on the status of overdose death rates and causes across pennsylvania through an interactive website at www.peru.pitt .edu/pennsylvania-heroin-overdose-prevention-technical-assistance-center/. this database is updated daily, providing up-to-date information about overdose prevention, data on overdose deaths from pennsylvania counties, and data on a variety of factors that can support county prevention efforts. in 2016 the university of pittsburgh’s institute of politics published a comprehensive plan entitled a continuum of care approach: western pennsylvania’s response to the opioid epidemic, available at iop.pitt.edu/ publications/policy-and-research-reports (see under “health & human services”). this report expanded on the 32 recommendations presented in the (western pennsylvania) u.s. attorney’s working group on drug overdose and addiction: prevention, intervention, treatment and recovery final report and recommendations, published in september 2014, available at: www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/usao-wdpa/legacy/2014/09/29/ us%20attorney%27s%20working%20group%20on%20addiction%20 final%20report.pdf. the pennsylvania department of drug and alcohol programs has a published response at www.ddap.pa.gov/overdose/pages/ department%20focus%20on%20addressing%20overdose.aspx, and a 2016–2017 state plan that includes many od prevention and treatment initiatives. this plan is available at www.ddap.pa.gov/reports/state%20plan%20 and%20annual%20reports/2016-2017%20ddap%20state%20plan.pdf. treatment, overdose, and finding the road to recovery 87 the pa association of county drug and alcohol administrators has a plan (opioidaction.org/report/), as does the center for rural pennsylvania (www.rural.palegislature.us/publications_heroin_and_opioid_addiction _public_hearings.html). other plans to address overdose other states have also published plans, as have successful programs such as vermont’s “hub/spoke” model (dvha.vermont.gov/administration/1hub -spoke-health-home-framework-payment-12-10-12.pdf), which is being replicated in part via centers of excellence in pennsylvania with state and federal funds (21st century cures act). see: dhs.pa.gov/citizens/ substanceabuseservices/centersofexcellence/index.html. notes 1. a chemical substance that binds to and activates certain receptors on cells, causing a biological response. fentanyl and methadone are examples of opioid receptor agonists. suboxone is a partial agonist. agonists are addictive. 2. see the video here: https://youtu.be/x2sp0guslp0. 3. an overview can be found at: https://ncsacw.samhsa.gov/resources/opioiduse -disorders-and-medication-assisted-treatment/treatment-of-opioid-use-disorders-in -pregnancy.aspx. 4. see www.myaddiction.com/articles/drugs/what-is-the-addiction-severity-index. 5. http://www.who.int/substance_abuse/activities/treatment_opioid_dependence/ en/. 6. see: https://www.cdc.gov/drugoverdose/pdf/guidelines_factsheeta.pdf . 7. see: www.ndci.org. 8. see: 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within the u.s. correctional facilities: bridging the gap between current practice and evidencedbased care.” journal of addictive diseases 34 (june): 220–225. wesson, d. r., and w. ling. 2003. “the clinical opiate withdrawal scale (cows).” journal of psychoactive drugs 35 (2): 253–259. white, w. l. 2008. recovery management and recoveryoriented systems of care: scientific rationale and promising practices. pittsburgh, pa: northeast attc, great lakes attc and philadelphia department of behavioral health and disability. ———. 2012. recovery/remission from substance use disorders: an analysis of reported outcomes in 415 scientific reports, 1868–2011. pittsburgh: philadelphia department of behavioral health and intellectual disability services, great lakes addiction technology transfer center. available at https://www.naadac.org/assets/1959/ whitewl2012_recoveryremission_from_substance_abuse_disorders.pdf. accessed february 1, 2018. white, w., and e. kurtz. 2008. recoverylinking addiction treatment & communities of recovery: a primer for addiction counselors and recovery coaches. pittsburgh: northeast attc. available at http://www.williamwhitepapers.com/ pr/2006recoverylinkagemonograph.pdf. accessed february 1, 2018. white, w., and l. mojertorres. 2010. recoveryoriented methadone maintenance. pittsburgh: northeast attc, great lakes attc and philadelphia department of behavioral health and mental retardation services. available at http://www.william whitepapers.com. accessed february 1, 2018. michael t. flaherty is a clinical psychologist specializing in addiction treatment and recovery. he has over 37 years of practice and leadership of major institutions including the st. francis institute for psychiatry and addiction services and the institute for research, education and treatment of addiction in pittsburgh, pennsylvania. he has authored many articles and studies on addictions, workforce development, and recovery. recently he served as a senior adviser for the u.s. department of justice/white house office of national drug control policy heroin task force, and as coleader of the u.s. attorney western pennsylvania task force on overdose prevention. structure bookmarks the birth and growth of a predictable epidemic why treatment has fallen short plans and resources: treatment and a coordinated, continuing need for action best practice in overdose treatment—actions recovery—the path to hope and solution appendix a appendix b: summary of national, pennsylvania, and other overdose prevention plans and actions notes references all politics is organizational: an analysis of candidate recruitment and political infulence in pennsylvania school board elections commonwealth, volume 19, issue 2 (2017). © 2017 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/com.v19i2.154. all rights reserved. all politics is organizational an analysis of candidate recruitment and political influence in pennsylvania school board elections nathan r. shrader millsaps college this article seeks to enhance the limited research dedicated to local school board elections by investigating whether pennsylvania school board members are recruited candidates or are self-starters. the article also investigates which kinds of organizations are the most active sources of candidate recruitment and engagement in pennsylvania school board races and which organizations are the most and least influential in local school board politics. using a unique dataset obtained through the statewide pennsylvania school board survey and interviews with current state legislators who began their political careers as local school board members, this article finds that local political party organizations play a larger than expected role in influencing local school board elections and recruiting candidates. board members themselves are also found to be highly engaged in political party activity within their communities before ever seeking office. also explored are the implications of these findings for school board politics and the discipline’s view of local party organizations. the study of america’s school boards, the citizens who serve on them, and the politics and policy they influence converge to make school board politics a dynamic center for the study of numerous interlocking components of research in the local government arena. these components include local governance and elections, education politics and policy making, 52 nathan r. shrader the power of personality, the impact of individual citizens on the democratic process, participation among interest groups and parties, and the pursuit of power. as an academic discipline, political science has a central role to play in explaining substantial questions about school board politics given that roughly 14,000 of these local governing bodies exist in the united states, with the clear majority of their membership being elected to serve. additionally, as the home to 499 separately elected public school boards, pennsylvania represents fertile ground in the effort to enhance the discipline’s understanding of school board politics and those serving as school board members. america’s school boards are among the most underexamined of the country’s political institutions. likewise, individuals who govern the nation’s public education system are largely unknown actors whose jobs require the dedication of significant amounts of time to positions that are unpaid and in many respects, somewhat unappreciated by those they serve. because they seek positions that exist on a small scale, individuals dedicating time and resources to running for these offices and then governing the school districts must stand before the citizens in their neighborhoods and towns, directly asking for their votes. candidates for public school board seats in states like pennsylvania run in “off-year” elections. this presents a unique challenge for these candidates given that “off-year” election turnout tends to be considerably lower than election years featuring prominent races for positions such as president, governor, or for other federal and state offices. according to berkman and plutzer (2005) and hess and meeks (2010), over nine out of 10 of america’s public school board members are elected to office in local or county elections, with the remainder appointed to their positions. board members are charged with performing a multitude of administrative and policy-oriented tasks, including “set district policy, approve the budget, and hire and evaluate the superintendent” (duke 2010, 61). despite the expectations and job requirements, board members tend to be “amateurs when it comes to the professional practice of education” (duke 2010, 60). school boards throughout the nation, which are dispersed across just under 14,000 school districts (berkman and plutzer 2005, 1), are charged with developing educational policy, studying and implementing curriculum, negotiating labor contracts, hiring and firing administrators, overseeing immense numbers of educators (although day-to-day management tends to be done by principals), overseeing the instruction of the country’s public school children, and meeting annual budgeting requirements to manage the district’s finances. although scholarship in the area of public school board research in general is quite broad, this particular study examines several specific questions that have not been thoroughly addressed in the existing literature on school all politics is organizational 53 board elections. first, i investigate the question of who serves on pennsylvania school boards and how the composition of boards within the keystone state compares to the demographic composition of the commonwealth itself and public school boards nationally. second, upon establishing who serves on pennsylvania’s school boards it is important to determine whether these individuals were recruited to seek office or if they are self-starters. simultaneously, this study investigates which political and nonpolitical organizations within pennsylvania communities are the most and least likely to be engaged in recruiting candidates for school board seats. the article also considers which groups exert the greatest influence over school board elections in the districts. last, the article examines the question of whether pennsylvania school board members are politically engaged citizens prior to seeking a position on the board and what this means for school district politics and governance. the role of america’s public school boards america’s school boards play a considerable role in running the country’s public education system while also managing a considerable amount of public money. according to the national center for education statistics (nces), as of the 2013–2014 fiscal year, school boards in the united states were responsible for overseeing more than $625 billion in public funds (nces 2016c) with about $280 billion of those dollars being raised locally by taxpayers within the school districts. they’re also charged with managing the schooling of over 55 million enrolled students as of 2015 (nces 2016a) and handling the hiring and firing of over 3.1 million teachers as of 2014 (nces 2016b). it is essential to draw attention to this $625 billion expenditure figure due to its sheer size and because this helps demonstrate the magnitude of the financial responsibilities placed on the shoulders of america’s public school boards. as a means of comparison, the national priorities project reports that about $599 billion in federal money was appropriated to the united states military in fiscal year 2015. additionally, the same organization reported that the cost of all american military operations in afghanistan between september 2001 and december 2016 is just north of $756 billion. in other words, america’s public school board members—the clear majority of whom are elected within their communities—are collectively responsible for raising, spending, and managing a significant sum of taxpayer-generated dollars, making them a body of government officials worthy of detailed examination. in most states—including pennsylvania—school board members have a hand in determining whether local school tax rates in the districts they serve will increase or decrease. they often have the power to establish a school 54 nathan r. shrader district’s spending priorities, making critical choices about whether the new high school football stadium or neighborhood elementary school will be built, deciding how to fund academic and athletic programs and projects, and determining how to award building contracts. these individuals can affect the content of what america’s children learn in the classroom through decisions regarding curriculum choices, textbook selection, and the acquisition of instructional materials available to teachers and students. a closer look at the public education finance data indicates that pennsylvania is among the states most reliant upon locally-generated tax dollars. table 1 shows that as of fiscal year 2014, pennsylvania collects a considerably lower share of its elementary and secondary education dollars from state coffers and a larger than average share from local taxpayers than school districts nationally. additionally, data from the u.s. census bureau (2016) show that only connecticut, nebraska, and new hampshire had a higher local share than pennsylvania in fy 2014. meanwhile, only illinois, nebraska, new hampshire, and south dakota collected a smaller share of their elementary and secondary education funds from state sources. bogui (2008) finds that state and local governmental bodies can either be classified as being fiscally dependent or fiscally independent entities (28). fiscally independent bodies such as local school boards have the legal authority to create their own budgets and thus raise revenue, while fiscally dependent boards must rely upon other governmental agencies or bodies to provide revenue. the north carolina school boards association (ncsba) found that among all “local boards of education nationwide, over 90% are fiscally independent. this is because school boards in most states are considered independent units of government” (n.d., n.p.). pennsylvania’s elected school boards fall into this category and have the power to levy local property taxes, although these locally raised dollars are their main, but not their only, source of revenue. the local property tax is the most commonly accepted source of school district revenue among pennsylvania school districts. as noted in table 1, table 1. sources of k–12 education funding as of fiscal year 2014 entity federal state local pennsylvania 6.6% 37.2% 56.3% united states 8.6% 46.7% 44.7% source: u.s. census bureau, public elementary-secondary education finance data—2014, available at https://www.census.gov/govs/school/, accessed march 13, 2017. all politics is organizational 55 over 56% of pennsylvania’s elementary and secondary education dollars are locally raised. mcnulty found that for school districts in the keystone state, “property taxes accounted for 85.5% of local school district tax revenues. however, there is wide disparity in dependence on property taxes among the different districts across pennsylvania” (mcnulty 2014, 1). mcnulty indicates that 10% of the remaining local dollars constitute local earned income taxes, 1.5% come from local business taxes, and 2.4% come from other local revenue streams (2014, 2). the presence of these local income and business taxes varies greatly from district to district. in pennsylvania there have been several notable efforts to diminish what is perceived by some to be an over-reliance on property taxes for financing the local share of public education funding. one of these efforts—the taxpayer relief act of 2006—provided local property tax relief through state-collected gaming revenue while attempting to limit the ability of local school boards to raise taxes “unless the school district either obtains approval from the voters to increase taxes above the index or applies and qualifies for one of the limited and specific referendum exceptions provided in the law” (psba 2014, n.p.). the harrisburg patriot-news concluded that as of 2011, the effort had “been a failure” (malawskey 2011, n.p.) as “school districts had asked the state 1,345 times to raise property taxes without seeking the approval of voters. they have been approved the vast majority of the time. those exceptions range from a few thousand to millions of dollars” (malawskey 2011, n.p.). later that year the legislature attempted to correct this by reducing the number of reasons local districts could seek exceptions. according to mcnulty, “act 25 of 2011 limited the exceptions to two relating to paying off indebtedness, one relating to special education costs and one to address the situation when the school’s required share of retirement payments to the pennsylvania public school employees’ retirement system (psers) increases more than the index” (2014, 6). despite attempts to limit the exceptions available to school districts, a pennsylvania school boards association analysis found that in “2013–14, there were 171 school districts that sought and were granted approval for referendum exceptions; of that, there were 93 districts that used the [psers] exception. for 2014–2015, there were 164 districts that sought and were granted approval for referendum exceptions” (pennsylvania school boards association 2014, n.p.). despite most all of these exemption requests being made for purposes related to pensions and special education, the example shows that school boards in pennsylvania continue to retain the capability of raising local taxes and that they are still “on the hook” for a disproportionate share—over 56% as of fy 2014—of financing public education in pennsylvania. 56 nathan r. shrader a related question is whether state and federal mandates have worked to diminish the ability of school boards to truly act as autonomous governing entities. stover (2011, 2) wrote that “the gradual whittling away of board authority through endless state and federal mandates and regulations” is a serious threat to the ability of school boards to maintain local control of public education through the policy-making process. prior to the 2015–2016 legislative session, the pennsylvania school boards association released a special report on school district mandates (2014) to help signal the organization’s interest in seeking mandate reform from harrisburg. the report indicated that although local school districts must address certain federal mandates, the bulk of the mandates placed on districts come from the state government. a comprehensive laundry list of state mandates covering policy areas such as taxation, construction, planning, reporting, operations, transportation, testing, personnel, and several other categories totaled roughly 140 state-specific mandates imposed on local districts in pennsylvania. specifically, the psba report found that perhaps the two most serious concerns for local school boards in pennsylvania have become paying for increasing retirement contributions and mandated payments to charter schools, which combine to account for “almost 14 cents of every dollar spent by school districts in 2014–2015” (pennsylvania school boards association 2014, 9). although there is clearly a concern among school boards regarding the erosion of their power due to state and federal mandates, local school boards have retained their power over local finances as nearly 45% of public education funds are raised locally in the united states (and over 50% in pennsylvania). school districts have also retained control over the power to hire and fire educators and administrators while making decisions regarding curriculum and district requirements over time. the existing academic literature pertaining to america’s school boards can be divided into three general categories: school board elections and politics, administration and management of school districts, and mechanisms for reforming education through school board leadership. studies on the politics of school board campaigns (deckman 2004; hess and leal 2005; moe 2005; meier and juenke 2005; hess 2008) address the types of issues that commonly arise in campaigns for public school board seats in the united states, interest group participation, and the intersection of complex policy issues that board members (and candidates) must address. a second category explains the administrative and organizational nature of education leadership, including school boards (callahan 1962; tucker and ziegler 1978; hussey 2003; epstein 2004; eadie 2005; reimer 2008; mayer 2011). this literature is largely explanatory in nature and describes the role of school board members as they relate to school governance. the overarching theme of this literature focuses on all politics is organizational 57 effective leadership and managerial techniques for board members, superintendents, and other administrators. a third general category of school board-themed literature examines mechanisms for reforming the way school leadership structures are designed and explains ways school board members and school leadership can improve the education system (peterson 1985; blackwell 2006; reimer 2008; kowalski 2008; duke 2010; maeroff 2010; mayer 2011). several additional pieces of research conducted by mccarty and ramsey (1971) and iannaccone and cistone (1974) bridge research pertaining to education politics with school organization and management. i explain below why and how the themes addressed in this research do not fit neatly within any of these categories and are largely unexamined within the existing body of academic literature pertaining to public school boards. school board candidate recruitment and major local stakeholders one of the most important objectives of this study is to analyze candidate emergence and recruitment among those serving on public school boards in pennsylvania. as such, table 2 contains nearly 30 opportunities and motives that may be taken into consideration by a citizen who decides to run for a seat on a public school board or by a recruitment agent, such as a political party, labor union, religious organization, business organization, nonpolitical community organization, parent organization, or an individual elected official who engages in the practice of candidate recruitment. as indicated in table 2, these motivations can be distilled into six larger categories: finance and budget, education and curriculum, politics, civic duty, associational interests, and general district management. a variety of these motives are rooted in policy preferences, such as in the financial/budgetary and education/curriculum categories, while others, such as those ascribed to the personnel, general management, associational, and politics categories, may or may not include a motivation that is driven by a desire to see a specific policy implemented or rejected. for example, the motives and opportunities contained within the civic duty category tend to represent a personal outlook embodied through the notion of civic engagement and public responsibility rather than a political or policy-driven purpose behind candidacy for the public school board. consequently, although some individuals who seek public school board seats may be motivated by policy concerns, such as what is being taught in the science curriculum or whether tax dollars should be appropriated for constructing a new elementary school, it should come as no surprise table 2. opportunities and motives for seeking school board positions or recruiting candidates to seek school board positions 1. financial/budgetary increase/reduce/maintain property tax levels increase/reduce/maintain spending and borrowing increase/reduce/maintain expenditures on certain budget items address unfunded mandates 2. education/curriculum enhance/change/maintain quality of educational programs support/oppose components of district curriculum favor/oppose adoption of textbooks 3. politics support/oppose various ideological agendas hold seat for my party/block opposing party from holding seat opportunity to lobby legislators for support of district needs gain experience to use seat as springboard to higher office 4. civic duty opportunity to give back to community frustrated with lack of interest in schools within community in need of something to do own kids had positive/negative experience in district and wanted to maintain/change things on the basis of their experiences 5. associational interests recruited to run by organization that i support recruited to run by individual leader that i support support/oppose agenda of incumbent(s) that i agree/ disagree with 6. district management approve/disapprove of changes to physical plant play role in awarding building contracts improve communication with constituents or taxpayers oversee athletic programs govern student-based organizations in district approve/disapprove of professional conference/student trip attendance interested in overseeing district while own children are enrolled manage/hire/fire superintendent and leadership team play role in negotiating labor contracts with district staff influence general personnel or hiring decisions sources: this menu of motives and opportunities was developed on the basis of the the school board literature discussed in the text, the author’s own experiences interacting with local school board members and candidates, conversations with the leaders of education-focused organizations (such as the education policy and leadership center and pennsylvania state education association), and discussions with several state legislators interviewed for this project who once served as members of their school boards. all politics is organizational 59 that some may be driven by purposes related to oversight, district management concerns, self-interest, or civic duty. having addressed a wide range of motivating factors that could lead citizens to either become “self-starters” and run for their local school board independently or be recruited by an organization or political actor within the community, it is important to discuss the chief stakeholders in school district politics, attempting to discern why and how they may be motivated to participate in the process of convincing like-minded individuals to run for school board seats. these stakeholder groups who likely have political motivations can be broken down into four general categories, as per the literature: teachers and teacher unions, church-related organizations, parent organizations, and political party organizations. of america’s teachers, 79% are unionized, while 64% are covered by collective bargaining agreements (moe 2011, 155). although these numbers may sound quite large, bureau of labor statistics data released in 2015 found a sharp decline in unionized public school teachers in recent years, with just 2.5 million of the nation’s 5.2 million teachers represented by a labor union (toppo and overberg 2015) today. moe suggests that school boards are at a disadvantage—at least in the public’s eye—when dealing with teachers because teachers are known and respected within communities. this maximizes the bargaining leverage held by teachers and their labor unions in contract negotiations, enhancing their influence within school district politics. according to moe’s perspective, the number of teachers represented by unions and their ability to bargain collectively has led to a critical view of the imprint unions have made on education reform efforts. alleging that unions have insisted on “bigger budgets, higher salaries, job protections, and other union-favored objectives” (2011, 10), moe contends that the unions have presented a roadblock to certain reforms and made the cost of funding public education untenable in many districts. moe argues that teachers unions and those who belong to them have a powerful advantage within school districts given “that their members are teachers, and americans like teachers. they admire them, they trust them, they often interact with them personally, and they see them as caring about children and quality education” (moe 2011, 22). as stakeholders, teachers and teacher unions play a critical role in the politics of local elections and can influence elections for public school board seats through campaign donations, grassroots mobilization, candidate recruitment efforts, and collective action to support or oppose certain candidates or slates of candidates for school board positions. moe’s study of california school board races found that teacher “unions are typically the most powerful 60 nathan r. shrader participants in school board elections” (2006, 13), are equally powerful across districts of all sizes, and have generally been successful in helping elect prounion school board members who are viewed by the teachers as being helpful and powerful allies during times of contract negotiations. as per moe’s findings, teachers unions have a great incentive to engage in recruiting candidates to run for school board seats because the unions have a vested interest in how the outcome of those elections relate to their ability to gain favorable concessions during bargaining sessions. similar to labor unions, church-related organizations have numerous incentives to engage in candidate recruitment at the school district level. deckman (2004) posits that religious or church organizations affiliated with the christian faith have a long history of recruiting local candidates for school board seats due to concerns regarding the teaching of evolution, the presence of sex education curriculum, support for local control of education as opposed to intrusion by the federal government, advocating for what they believe to be “traditional” christian values, and issues related to textbook selection. anecdotal evidence that i have gathered from personal conversations with school board members, union officials, and conservative activists regarding school board elections also indicates that church-affiliated or religious groups occasionally become intertwined with other political organizations, such as antitax organizations, which may combine their resources to recruit candidates and promote slates of multiple candidates conducive to advancing the agendas of both types of organizations. additionally, education-oriented organizations, such as parent teacher associations (ptas) or parent teacher organizations (ptos), good schools pennsylvania, parents united for public education, and students first, are all active in various parts of the state. groups such as these are involved in grassroots organizing on behalf of various education-related issues, are active in the day-to-day affairs of the school districts, and are led by individuals who have a strong commitment to working on education policies and management. moe argues parent groups “tend to be wholly unorganized outside (perhaps) the pta—which is a parent-teacher organization, not simply a parent organization, and almost always an ally of the unions” (2006, 11). there could be some blending between the types of individuals involved in these groups. another example is the group students first, which comprises education advocates and businesspeople seeking to expand school choice in the commonwealth. although parents of school-age children are ostensibly behind the organization’s grassroots operation, several well-endowed business leaders are the chief financiers of the group’s efforts. parents involved with the pta or pto groups may be driven to recruit candidates or become active in school board elections if they sense that a all politics is organizational 61 situation or problem unfolding within one of the schools or across the entire district is not being adequately handled by the district’s professional administrators or the school board. it is also probable that these recruits are parents with school-age children and sense that their membership on the school board will allow them to help manage the district while their kids are in attendance. this fits with the assessment of rosenstone and hansen, who argued that the when it comes to parents and their interaction with the schools, “specific concerns are quite narrow, focusing on the educational needs of their own children” (1993, 103) rather than the district as a whole. local political party organizations likely have considerably less to gain when it comes to candidate recruitment and activity in local school board seats. likewise, these organizations are generally viewed as waning due to the increasing centralization of power within the two major parties at the national level, which ostensibly weakens the power of the party organizations at the local level. as such, hershey describes local party organizations as structures that correspond “to the levels of government at which voters elect officeholders. this structure is often pictured as a pyramid base in the grassroots and stretching up to the statewide organization” (hershey 2009, 49). she describes the structure in the following manner: “in a typical state, the smallest voting district of the state—the precinct, ward, or township—will have its own party organization composed of men and women elected to the party’s local committee (called committeemen and committeewomen). then come a series of party committees at the city, county, and sometimes even the slate legislative, judicial, and congressional districts” (p. 49). the party organizations whose jurisdiction would overlap with local school boards are most likely to be the party organizations found at the local level and organized by ward and precinct. local or county party committees are the official organizations that work on behalf of the democratic and republican parties within those municipalities or counties on projects such as voter registration, voter contact, canvassing, phone banking, placing campaign signs, taking candidates around their precincts, and meeting voters outside the entries to the precinct polling places during primary and general elections. they are the party’s front line in any electoral battle. according to hershey, many party committee positions at the local level, which are volunteer-driven, are vacant (2009, 50) and reeling from the gradual realignment over time that has led to stronger national party organizations at the expense of the local entities (2009, 78). considering this, i expect to find that organizations like church or religious groups, unions, or parent organizations are more likely to be engaged in the practice of recruiting school board candidates than local political parties. despite the variety of ways the academic literature treats public school boards, there is a general absence of discussion about who sits on america’s 62 nathan r. shrader school boards, their political orientation, and the intersection of electoral politics, candidate recruitment, and the work of political parties at the school board level. this study should be able to help begin the process of filling that void, at least as it pertains to pennsylvania school districts. pennsylvania as a case study pennsylvania’s cultural, political, and economic diversity as detailed by cooke (1960), beers (1980), madonna and bresler (1997), flint (2001), treadway (2005), kennedy (2006), lamis (2008), and shrader (2011) makes the state a meaningful case for the purpose of exploring research questions related to the public school boards and those serving on them. the state is also a political swing state featuring voters who are known for ticket splitting in statewide and down-ballot races. this adds to the intrigue of examining the offices that often appear at the very end of the ballot and are selected using partially partisan elections in which candidates can opt to file to run in both party primary elections. in short, pennsylvania’s 499 individual school districts, each with its own elected board of nine members represent a subset of 499 unique cases within a single state study. it must also be noted that although the commonwealth actually has 500 school districts, the philadelphia school district—which happens to be the state’s largest—has an appointed school reform commission (src) rather than an elected board. established in 2001, the src consists of three gubernatorial appointees and two mayoral appointees. none of the representatives who serve on the src are chosen by the voters and were therefore not included in the universe of survey participants.1 aside from philadelphia, voters in the remaining 499 individual districts elect nine individuals as school directors (or board members) to serve for four-year terms. board members can be elected in one of four methods, with the majority running at-large within their districts. the pennsylvania school boards association reported in january 2016 that 63% of districts elect board members at-large, 28% use a three-region (or electoral districts within the school district) system, 6% use a nine-region system, and 3% of districts have an at-large/region hybrid scheme for electing board members (2). according to the pennsylvania school boards association, the only legal requirements for school board service include pennsylvania citizenship, being at least 18 years of age, one year of residence in the district, and “good moral character” (n.d., n.p.). the school board members elected to lead these districts are charged with handling a myriad of governmental functions at the local level. data from the pennsylvania department of education (2016) show that public school board members were responsible for over $15.8 billion in locally raised tax dollars as of the 2014–2015 fiscal year. according to the nonpartisan, all politics is organizational 63 harrisburg-based education policy and leadership center (eplc), the responsibilities of public school boards in pennsylvania are distributed across five categories. these categories include 1. planning through the creation of strategic plans, setting educational goals and priorities, budgeting, and professional development 2. policy making through board operations and establishing expected outcomes 3. monitoring by evaluating the performance of the district superintendent, regular assessment of student performance, and by overseeing the district’s finances 4. communicating procedures, expectations, and policies to staff, parents, students, and the general public through regular reports and public meetings 5. advocating for the children who attend the schools by serving as lobbyists or liaisons to policymakers at all levels. (2004, 13–14) meanwhile, the specific powers of pennsylvania’s elected public school boards are enumerated in article v of the pennsylvania school code. the extensive list of responsibilities indicated in table 3 is adapted from the list of powers and duties outlined by the eplc (2014, 13–14) and helps to demonstrate the array of powers and duties granted to pennsylvania school boards and school board members. in summary, the individuals serving on public school boards are important to understand, observe, and analyze due to the significance table 3. powers and duties of pennsylvania school board members via pennsylvania school code • adopt an annual budget • adopt policies to govern student organizations • adopt policies to manage the district • adopt textbooks • adopt the curriculum • appoint and dismiss professional staff • appoint and dismiss the superintendent • authorize staff participation in professional conferences • authorize student field trips • borrow money • determine depositories for school funds • determine salaries of all personnel • determine the location of school buildings • determine the school calendar • enter into contracts • establish schools and programs • levy and collect taxes • operate school cafeterias • organize school safety patrols • purchase and sell land source: education policy and leadership center, “strengthening the work of school boards in pennsylvania,” 2004, pp. 13–14, available at http://www.eplc.org/k12governancereport.pdf, accessed september 3, 2013. 64 nathan r. shrader of the responsibilities they bear according to article v of the pennsylvania school code. likewise, their actions can affect a multitude of stakeholders in each school district, such as students, teachers, administrators, parents, and taxpayers. research agenda the pennsylvania school board study was originally crafted as a comprehensive effort to contribute to our understanding of the demographic and political profile of those serving on pennsylvania school boards, their political and ideological philosophies, the levels of civic and political engagement among these public servants, the reasons why these individuals sought local school board seats, and the relationship between the board members and their district superintendents. this article assesses the question of who serves on school boards in pennsylvania, as well as several important, yet largely unaddressed, questions pertaining to the role of political and nonpolitical organizations in local pennsylvania school board politics. the following questions are addressed: 1. who serves on pennsylvania school boards and how does their composition compare to that of public school boards nationally and the demographics of the state? 2. are pennsylvania’s elected public school board members self-starters or are they recruited to run for office? among those who are recruited, which organizations or entities are most responsible for enlisting and organizing school board candidates? 3. are the citizens elected to serve on pennsylvania’s public school boards engaged in the political process before running for office? if so, what does this mean for the practice of politics within school districts? on the basis of the research cited earlier, i expect to find that organizations such as labor unions, church-related groups, and nonpartisan education organizations such as parent-teacher associations and other school-oriented groups are most likely responsible for recruiting local school board candidates and exerting influence over the local political process at the school district level. i also expect to find that local political party organizations are somewhat active in these areas, but not to the same extent as labor, religious, and school or education-oriented organizations. due to the lack of available demographic information on who serves on pennsylvania’s public school boards, i do not have a very clear expectation on the likely outcome of the first question, all politics is organizational 65 although i would not be astonished to find that the profile of pennsylvania’s school board members looks something like their counterparts in the national sample to which it is later compared. methodology this study consisted of a statewide survey of sitting school board members in pennsylvania and interviews with 5 of the 16 members of the pennsylvania general assembly (as of november 2013) who began their careers in public service as members of a local school board.2 the pennsylvania school board survey, which was funded by the temple university institute for public affairs, was administered to all 4,476 public school board members in the commonwealth between november 2013 and march 2014. previous research on public school boards led me to the conclusion that while some academics and professional organizations have gone to great lengths to explain what school boards do, how they are structured, and the kinds of policies they address, very little information exists to help inform us about the people serving on these boards and their political attitudes and experiences. chiefly, the project sought to ask questions to help understand who these actors are, where they come from, why they are serving in these positions, and what are their political experiences and motivations. the survey mainly served to collect data describing demographics of those serving on pennsylvania school boards, the political and policy interests of these elected officials, motivation for seeking these positions, sources of candidate recruitment, levels of political and community engagement among the members, individual political ambition, and the impact of recruitment and political ambition on governing. the pennsylvania school board survey was housed online at a site built exclusively for this project—www.pennsylvaniaschoolboardsurvey.com. an introductory letter containing relevant information about the project, a participant security code, and specific completion instructions were sent via the u.s. postal service to the school district office addresses of all board members, arriving in late november 2013. a follow-up email was sent two months later to a subset of 1,000 members with publicly available email addresses with another email being sent to 412 (of 499) school superintendents, school board secretaries, or administrative assistants who work for school district superintendents for the purpose of encouraging the school board members in their districts to participate. last, in early february 2014, a reminder postcard with security code information and completion instructions was mailed to the original universe of 4,476 members as well as one final email reminder to the subset of 1,000 with available addresses. 66 nathan r. shrader the pennsylvania school board survey received a total of 380 responses for an overall response rate of 9%. unfortunately, since very few surveys of local school board members in either the nation or pennsylvania have been published, there are limited opportunities to draw comparisons between the overall response rate for the pennsylvania school board survey and similar survey-based studies. for example, the 2010 hess and meeks national school board study relied upon a stratified sample of school board members and superintendents nationally and received a response rate of 24%. a survey conducted by the pennsylvania senate democratic appropriations committee in 2013 is instructive about response rate expectations. the senate appropriations survey was distributed to 27,000 public school teachers, all building principals, all superintendents, all intermediate unit directors, and all elected school directors in the commonwealth of pennsylvania. respondents were asked in this survey “to assess our current system, evaluate recent reform efforts, and provide their own suggestions to improve public education programs in pennsylvania” (pennsylvania senate democratic appropriations committee 2013, 2). the senate study received responses from 282 school board members for a 6.3% overall response rate. on the basis of the regional distribution of responses to the pennsylvania school board survey, it was determined that the sample tracked closely with the actual distribution of school board members within geographic regions of the commonwealth. this determination was made by calculating the percentage of responses coming from board members within six regions (again, minus philadelphia) and the number of school board seats available in each of the six regions. since the survey was anonymous, respondents were not asked to include their names, the city or town in which they live, or the school district they represent. instead, participants were asked to respond to an openended question listing the name of the county in which their school district is located. based upon the regional division of pennsylvania counties used by franklin & marshall college’s keystone poll, each county was coded based upon the region. table 4 demonstrates that the sample tracks closely with the geographic distribution of school board seats within the six regions. the data show that the percentage of respondents within the region fall within two to four percentage points of the number of seats, falling within this range in five of six regions covered by the study. it is also necessary to note several specific limitations to this study, or perhaps any study that is based largely upon survey research. first, surveybased research allows for a methodical examination of trends and patterns within the responses and permits the researcher to ask questions of the universe of respondents that could not be investigated otherwise. however, as all politics is organizational 67 political scientist andrew gelman explained in a washington post “monkey cage” installment, any survey or “poll is a snapshot” (2013), meaning that findings can and will change over time with shifting circumstances and even a changing universe of respondents. despite this, the pennsylvania school board survey appears to the be the first of its kind conducted within the state for the purpose of probing for answers to questions pertaining to composition of pennsylvania school boards, the political attributes and actions of their members, and the intersection of political and nonpolitical community organizations in local school board politics. second, although providing for an otherwise nonexistent means of systematically analyzing pennsylvania school board members, the survey—especially in relation to the questions of candidate recruitment and engagement— includes only victorious candidates and not those who ran unsuccessfully for school board seats. notwithstanding attempts to gain access to mailing lists or even candidate lists for all of pennsylvania’s 499 school board seats in the most recent cycle, it was determined that these lists would either have to be obtained through freedom of information act requests through each county or in some cases on a district-by-district basis. although this would be a worthwhile project to pursue, it also appeared to be costly in terms of both time and monetary resources that could have hindered the ability to produce valid and timely research. with regard to the distribution of survey responses, there appears to be a slightly weaker response rate among members serving districts in northwestern pennsylvania than other districts in the state. the variation between the percentage of respondents representing districts within five of the six regions table 4. pennsylvania school board survey: responses by region compared to number of school board seats per region answer options response percentage response count number of school board seats per region allegheny 9.7% 35 7.3% northeast 11.9% 43 15.3% southeast 15.3% 55 11.4% northwest 10.8% 39 16.4% southwest 14.7% 53 15.9% central 37.5% 135 33.6% answered question 360 skipped question 20 source: pennsylvania school board survey. 68 nathan r. shrader represented here ranged within two to four percentage points of the distribution of school board seats within said regions. the discrepancy was 5.6% for northwestern pennsylvania respondents. despite these potential limitations, i am quite confident that the findings of the pennsylvania school board survey and this study are valuable to the discipline of political science, the study of local politics, and the actual applied practice of political engagement at the school board level. last, a review of each of the 253 legislator biographies (203 in the house, 50 in the senate) contained in volume 119 of the pennsylvania manual for the 2009–2010 session revealed that as of 2009 there were 16 members serving in one of the two legislative chambers who once served on a public school board. much like the survey sample of pennsylvania school board members, these state legislators are mostly republican, with 14 of the 16 being members of the grand old party and two democrats. it was my belief that these general assembly members were uniquely positioned to help explain whether those who begin their political careers by serving in a local position such as the school board eventually climb to a position such as the legislature. five of these members were interviewed following the collection of survey data and asked to comment on some of the patterns observed in the results. findings who serves on pennsylvania school boards? a brief overview of the demographic and political traits associated with pennsylvania’s elected school board membership as per the pennsylvania school board survey’s findings is contained in table 5. the data compare those serving on pennsylvania’s public school boards, the state population, and when available or applicable, the 2010 national school board sample drawn by hess and meeks. these data indicate that there are some substantial personal, demographic, and political differences between those serving on pennsylvania public school boards, the state’s population and electorate, and the national school board sample from 2010. pennsylvania’s school board membership tends to contain a larger share of men than the national school board sample or the state’s population itself. the commonwealth—whose population is over 11% black—contains a black school board membership of just 1.6%. the levels of educational attainment between the pennsylvania school board sample and the state population is striking, with nearly 80% of those serving on school boards holding at least a bachelor’s degree compared to 27% of the state’s general population. school board members in pennsylvania are also significantly all politics is organizational 69 more likely to come from households making between $50,000 and $99,999 or over $100,000 per year (about 53%) than the state populace (about 35%). they are also about 10% more likely to have school-age children than the state’s overall population. table 5 also offers several valuable findings concerning partisanship and ideology. simply put, pennsylvania’s overall electorate is considerably more democratic than those serving on the state’s public school boards. the state’s table 5. demographic and political data pennsylvania school board membership (%) pennsylvania population or electorate (%) national school board sample (%) male 61.7 51.2 56.0 female 38.3 48.8 44.0 white 95.1 83.5 80.7 black 1.6 11.4 12.3 other 3.3 5.1 17.0 married 88.8 50.2 na divorced 3.0 8.5 na no degree 0.3 11.7 0.1 high school or ged 4.9 37.2 5.1 bachelor’s degree 34.9 16.6 27.7 advanced degree 42.5 10.4 46.5 household earns under $50k/year 9.5 48.1 9.7 household earns $50k–$99.9k/year 38.1 31.2 41.8 household earns more than $100k/year 14.6 4.0 9.5 has school-age children 39.4 29.9 38.1 does not have school-age children 60.6 70.1 61.9 democrat 39.6 50.0 na republican 58.5 37.0 na other 1.9 13.0 na conservative 40.4 34.0 30.3 liberal 14.7 26.0 20.3 moderate 44.9 36.0 49.3 sources: (1) pennsylvania school board figures from pennsylvania school board survey. (2) figures on gender, race, marital status, educational attainment, household income, and presence of school-age children from u.s. census bureau. (3) figures for party affiliation from pennsylvania department of state. (4) ideology figures from july 2014 franklin & marshall poll. (5) national school board sample figures from frederick m. hess and oliva meeks, “governance in the accountability era” (alexandria, va: national school boards association, 2010). 70 nathan r. shrader electorate is over 10% more democratic than the school board sample. the school board membership is nearly 22% more republican than the rest of the state and about 11% less likely to be associated with a third party or independent than the rest of the commonwealth’s electorate. one possible explanation for some of these partisan differences between the school board sample and party affiliation in the state is that philadelphia, with an appointed school reform commission, is not included in the sample of school board members. figures from the pennsylvania department of state’s division of voter registration indicate that just under 20% of all registered democrats in pennsylvania live in philadelphia county. additionally, there are striking ideological differences as well, with the school board population being roughly 6% more conservative and about 11% less liberal than the rest of the state. last, pennsylvania’s school board members are over 10% more conservative, about 5% less liberal, and nearly 5% less moderate than the nation’s school board members. in summation, these demographic data help to underscore the importance of understanding who serves in these positions and where they emerge from and are even more crucial for both the field of political science and the public interest. discrepancies between the descriptive, political, educational, and socioeconomic attributes of pennsylvania’s public school board members and the citizens they serve introduce valuable questions for consideration pertaining to representation, decision making, and outcomes. the following section analyzes how the practice of candidate recruitment, development of candidate slates, and sources of political engagement influence pennsylvania’s school districts. school board candidate recruitment and organizational activity respondents to the pennsylvania school board survey were asked to indicate whether they were contacted and urged to run by any organizations prior to deciding to run for a seat on the school board. a majority of respondents reported that they were not recruited to run for the school board by any organizations in their districts. about 76% said that no such recruitment efforts occurred, while about 24% said that an organization did contact them to encourage them to seek a seat on the school board. those who indicated that they were initially recruited to run for their seats were then asked to indicate which type of organization or organizations served as the recruiting agent that reached out to them. as indicated in table 6, the survey found that political party committees or organizations were the most common recruiting agent, with nearly 43% of recruited school board members having been enlisted by such an organization. this level of recruitment activity by party organizations seems relatively all politics is organizational 71 high in comparison to the literature, especially the work of deckman (2004) and moe (2001, 2005, 2006, and 2011), who respectively suggest that religious organizations and labor unions are exceptionally active in school board elections. the findings here demonstrate that only about 8% of board members who were recruited were enlisted by labor organizations, while just over 3% were recruited by a church-affiliated group. these findings indicate that local political party committees and organizations play a larger than expected role in seeking out individuals to run for school board seats. another means of determining organizational activity is the establishment of candidate slates. candidate “slating” occurs when a political party organization, political action committee, interest group, or some other type of group organizes multiple candidates to seek positions as a team in a race in which there may be multiple victors. through this practice, an organization would essentially endorse a slate of candidates and work toward the election of every member on the slate through what becomes a joint campaign coordinated by that organizing source. when asked whether they had ever run for election or reelection to the school board as part of a slate of candidates, a majority (65%) replied that they have not campaigned as part of a slate. respondents that ran on a slate of candidates were then presented a followup question asking who was chiefly responsible for organizing that “team” effort intended to elect multiple candidates to fill multiple seats. nearly 30% table 6. question 8: “if yes, which type of organization or organizations contacted you (please check all that apply)?” answer options response percentage response count political party committee or organization 42.8% 39 a nonpolitical community/neighborhood group or organization 36.3% 33 a church-affiliated organization 3.3% 3 a labor organization 7.7% 7 a business organization 2.2% 2 a fraternal organization 0.0% 0 incumbent member(s) of the school board 8.8% 8 an education-oriented organization within the district 7.7% 7 other 8.8% 8 answered question 91 skipped question 289 source: pennsylvania school board survey. 72 nathan r. shrader said that a political party or an official affiliated with a political party was responsible, while 22% attributed the effort to an incumbent member of the school board. almost 20% indicated that their friends and neighbors organized the slate campaign, while 12% cited a nonpolitical community or neighborhood group or organization. less than 1% said that a labor organization was responsible for the slate effort, while zero respondents cited a churchaffiliated organization, a business organization, or a fraternal organization. another 16% responded “other.” eleven of the 19 respondents who opted to enter a response in the “other” category said that the candidates themselves organized the slate. once again, the organizational work of the local party committees stands out (table 7). survey participants were unable to identify a specific type of organization that is overwhelmingly influential in local elections held within their districts. respondents were asked to evaluate how influential a variety of organizations were on local elections in their districts. the results are presented in table 8. nearly 40% of respondents stated that political parties or organizations are “extremely” or “very” influential over local elections. overall, 35% reported that school or education groups are influential in this way, and 34% said the same of community and neighborhood organizations. just 10% said that church organizations are influential over local elections in their districts, table 7. question 10: “if yes [to question 9], who organized this effort [to slate candidates]?” response response answer options percentage count a political party or an official affiliated with a political party 29.8% 36 a nonpolitical community/neighborhood group or 11.6% 14 organization a church-affiliated organization 0.0% 0 a labor organization 0.8% 1 a business organization 0.0% 0 a fraternal organization 0.0% 0 friends and neighbors 19.8% 24 an incumbent member of the school board 22.3% 27 the candidates themselves 9.0% 11 other 6.6% 8 answered question 121 source: pennsylvania school board survey. all politics is organizational 73 while 17% said the same of labor organizations. fewer than 10% said that business or fraternal organizations held sway over local elections, according to respondents. although opinion appears to be somewhat weak when it comes to identifying extremely or very influential organizations, a majority of respondents identified four types of organizations that they believe are clearly “not influential” in local elections. these organizations include fraternal clubs or organizations (66%), church-affiliated groups or organizations (55%), business organizations (55%), and organized labor groups (54%). this is again a departure from the expectation regarding the role of church and labor affiliated groups. legislators confirm participatory role of party organizations a second component of this study featured interviews with 5 of the 16 members of the pennsylvania general assembly (as of 2013) who began their careers in public service as members of their local school boards. these table 8. question 16: “which types of organizations have the most influence over local elections in your district? for each of the organizations listed below, please select whether these groups are extremely influential, very influential, somewhat influential, or not at all influential over local elections in your district.” answer options extremely influential very influential somewhat influential not at all influential response count political party committees or organizations 13.9% 23.7% 34.8% 27.6% 359 community and neighborhood groups or organizations 7.0% 26.5% 49.4% 17.0% 358 church-affiliated groups and organizations 2.2% 7.8% 35.2% 54.7% 358 organized labor groups 4.2% 13.0% 29.1% 53.7% 354 business organizations 1.1% 7.7% 36.6% 54.5% 352 fraternal clubs and organizations 0.9% 4.3% 28.8% 66.1% 351 schoolor educationoriented organizations 8.7% 26.0% 43.0% 22.3% 358 answered question 363 skipped question 17 source: pennsylvania school board survey. 74 nathan r. shrader interviews were conducted with the promise of anonymity in the district offices of each member. my initial expectation was that local party organizations would play less of a role in either recruiting candidates or influencing local school board elections. however, the interviews conducted with the members showed that these seasoned practitioners were not surprised when respondents to the pennsylvania school board survey reported a larger than anticipated role for local parties and local party organizations. there were several other fascinating patterns gleaned from these five interviews as it relates to the party organizations. first, three of the five believe that political party organizations are instrumental in recruiting school board candidates in their districts and in the commonwealth of pennsylvania. second, three of the five reported having been personally recruited to run for the school board by a political party, one was self-recruited, and a third was recruited by an incumbent board member. the last interview subject was recruited by an incumbent board member who happened to be the individual’s father, an active party member. furthermore, four of the five stated that they were personally involved in local politics in their communities before their first campaign for the school board, meaning that even if they weren’t recruited by a party organization, they were “plugged in” to the local political scene from day one. as previously noted, the fifth member’s father was an incumbent who was politically active, thus likely providing legislator 5 with a higher-than-usual level of name identification and inroads with politically aware individuals within the community. that fifth member also informed me that he had served for decades as the chair of his local party and actively recruits school board candidates on a regular basis within his community. political engagement the third research question asks whether the citizens who are elected to serve on pennsylvania’s public school boards engaged in the political process before running for office and what this may mean for the practice of politics at the local level. the pennsylvania school board survey makes it possible to reach some conclusions about this. first, respondents were asked to describe the level of activity among the party organizations in their districts. as indicated in table 9, over 60% of pennsylvania’s school board members are from districts with at least one active political party organization. nearly 28% of respondents report that both parties have very active organizations in their districts, almost 21% says that their districts have an active republican party organization, while close to 12% say the same about an active democratic party organization. the fact that more than 60% of pennsylvania’s school all politics is organizational 75 board members come from districts with at least one active party organization indicates that the local parties are likely more influential or active in local races than noted within the existing literature or assumed prior to the undertaking of this study. i am intrigued by these findings because there is a general impression among many political and governmental professionals that local parties in pennsylvania are largely inactive or absent from the scene. these findings contradict conventional wisdom. as reported earlier, nearly 59% of pennsylvania’s school board members identify as being republicans compared to just about 40% who say they are democrats. these numbers do not align with the overall electorate in the state, which is about 50% democratic and 37% republican. the data uncovered in table 9 provide at least a partial explanation for this imbalance as nearly 21% of board members represent districts featuring only an active republican organization as compared to nearly 12% who come from districts with only a strong democratic organization. it could be argued that there are more republican school board members since more school districts contain active republican party organizations as compared to those with active democratic party organizations. this can possibly serve as both recognition of the organizing strength of republicans locally and a way to rouse dormant democratic organizations from their slumber. second, the pennsylvania school board survey discovered that the individuals serving on the state’s school boards had long histories of both political and community engagement prior to running for a seat on the local school table 9. question 15: “which of the following options most closely describes the political parties in your district?” answer options response percentage response count both political parties have very active organizations in my district. 27.9% 102 my district has a very active democratic party organization only. 11.7% 43 my district has a very active republican party organization only. 20.8% 76 neither political party has a very active organization in my district. 39.6% 145 answered question 366 skipped question 14 source: pennsylvania school board survey. 76 nathan r. shrader board. table 10 represents the response rates to the question pertaining to political or governmental activity. respondents were asked to select all forms of political or governmental engagement prior to their candidacies. the results associated with this question helped inform me that these voluntary public servants are more than just concerned citizens seeking to do good for their communities; they are incredibly well-connected in the political lives of their communities and have extensive personal histories of political involvement prior to holding office. the figures below are rather astounding because they help demonstrate that pennsylvania’s elected school board members are extremely engaged and involved in the political process before seeking positions on the school board. over 44% report having volunteered on other political campaigns, over 18% have helped raise money for candidates, 16% held another public office in the past, nearly 13% served as a member of a political party committee, and about 11% also sought some other office in the past. another 11% were involved in campaigns through a business, labor, or professional organization. a total table 10. question 21: “were you engaged in any of the following political or governmental activities prior to running for a seat on the school board (please check all that apply)?” answer options response percentage response count ran for public office in the past (9) 10.7% 28 held public office in the past (5) 16.0% 42 served as a party committeeperson (6) 12.6% 33 volunteered on other political campaigns (1) 44.3% 116 helped raise money for political candidates (4) 18.3% 48 involved in campaigns through a business, labor, or professional organization (9) 10.7% 28 worked for a government office, agency, or other public official (5) 16.0% 42 lobbied or contacted a government official or agency in support/opposition of a policy (3) 30.2% 79 organized people in my community to take action regarding an issue or concern (2) 33.6% 88 other (7) 12.2% 32 none (8) 11.4% 30 answered question 262 skipped question 118 source: pennsylvania school board survey. all politics is organizational 77 of 16% worked in government or for a public official. incredibly, nearly 34% organized people in their communities to take action on a certain issue, while over 30% had lobbied or contacted a government official or agency. in short, these findings demonstrate that pennsylvania’s school board members are not amateurs in the world of politics. conversely, the findings indicate that they are perhaps the most highly involved citizens within their communities when it comes to political engagement. these findings are significant because it changes the conversation about locally elected school board members being “regular folks” like their neighbors or cincinnatus-like public servants who reluctantly leave their plow and till in the field in order to aid their communities. pennsylvania’s school board members are among the political elite of their communities and far more astute at the game of politics than their fellow citizens. duke noted that school board members tend to be “amateurs when it comes to the practice of education” (2010, 60), but these findings show that this is not the case when it comes to politics. discussion in summary, the findings presented throughout this study help reach the following conclusions in relation to the original research questions. demographics these demographic findings help illuminate a level of detachment between the individuals who compose pennsylvania’s public school boards and the public itself on descriptive and political indicators alike. the data show that pennsylvania’s school board members tend to be wealthier, more highly educated, considerably more likely to lean toward the republican party (and conservatism), and much less racially diverse than the state’s populace. the state’s school board membership is also less diverse in terms of race, gender, ideology, and income level than their counterparts in the national sample. the ramifications of these descriptive and political differences between the board members and populace they govern could have legitimate ramifications for the policy-making process within the districts. for example, the election of a disproportionate number of self-identified conservative or republican school board members within a district may have an impact on the consequential decisions made by board members when it comes to some of the previously noted responsibilities of school boards, such as approving certain types of textbooks, adopting the curriculum, deciding upon the local property tax rate, and negotiating union contracts with the district workforce. 78 nathan r. shrader as for the apparent incongruity between the state’s school board membership and the general population on descriptive measures such as race, ethnicity, and gender, ample research has shown that the presence or absence of elected political leadership among minority groups can influence the formulation of policies crafted by legislative bodies and the type of representation received by individuals within these groups. for example, a 2003 study of elected legislators in texas and california by pantoja and segura found that the presence of latino legislative representation is modestly associated with greater latino empowerment within those districts. similarly, in their study of descriptive representation of racial minorities within the u.s. congress, bowen and clark determined that “among many of the activities both legislators and constituents care deeply about—such as constituent service, securing funds for local projects, and citizen-legislator communication—mcs’ [members of congress’s] representational activities are more positively evaluated and better recognized among members of their own racial or ethnic group” (2014, 703). although neither the pennsylvania school board survey nor this article specifically examines policy making within the districts, the clear lack of diversity on school boards in the areas of gender, race, class, educational attainment, partisanship, and political ideology represents serious challenges worth considering in the area of policy making at the school district level. recruitment, organization, and influence the initial research questions sought to identify the organizations that serve as the chief sources of candidate recruitment in local school board races. these groups tend to be the most likely to be engaged in organizing and promoting slates of candidates in school board elections, while serving as the most politically influential organizations at the local school board level in pennsylvania. this research has found that local political party organizations are considerably more active in these areas than expected. furthermore, they are substantially more involved in the activities of candidate recruitment, slate organizing, and exerting general political influence over local school board elections than their counterparts in organized labor, church-related groups, or even education or school-related group at the school district level than initially anticipated. although the general expectations at the outset of this study were incorrect in predicting or anticipating the considerable role of local party organizations, the impact of these findings are significant when compared against what could be expected given the existing academic literature. despite moe’s frequent admonitions against the calamitous effects of organized labor’s all politics is organizational 79 influence in local education politics, there is very little to report regarding labor’s presence in pennsylvania school board elections. the findings of this study demonstrate that fewer than 8% of those who were recruited to seek school board seats in pennsylvania were enlisted by labor. less than 1% of those who ran as part of a slate of candidates for the school board reported that this effort was organized and carried out by a labor organization. likewise, nearly 54% of all respondents said that organized labor groups were not influential whatsoever in local elections in their districts. compare this to the paltry 17% who said that labor organizations were either extremely or very influential. the pennsylvania school board survey shows that labor unions and their influence in school board politics are largely absent from the political scene when it comes to recruiting candidates in school board elections and influencing the outcomes of school board races. several specific data points offer an explanation that is contradictory to the conventional wisdom about labor unions essentially controlling school boards and school district business. although there is nominal evidence of at least some union influence in pennsylvania school boards—16% of members report to be either past or present union members—this research has led me to conclude that the union-controlled school system as depicted in the literature is not prevalent in this state. i have found no systemic or clear evidence suggesting that moe’s portrait of local education systems being controlled by union elites is true regarding pennsylvania’s public school boards. lyndon johnson was known for dismissing ideas that made little sense to him by opining that “that dog just don’t hunt” (safire 1993, 790). regarding local school board elections in the keystone state, moe’s union power thesis “just don’t hunt.” the same can be said of religious or church-affiliated organizations that also appear to be absent in the discussion of candidate recruitment, organizing, and exerting influence over school board elections in pennsylvania. this study has largely found that local political party organizations are the most active sources of candidate recruitment for local school board seats. it has also determined that local political party organizations are more likely than any other entity within the school districts to organize slates of board candidates. last, we have discovered that political party organizations are substantially more influential in local school board elections than expected— more so than their counterparts in church, business, labor, community or neighborhood, and education groups. with that said, there are two other instructive pieces of information in the pennsylvania school board survey that help build the case for stronger-than-expected local political party organizations at the school district level. 80 nathan r. shrader emphasis on local party committees and organizations thanks to this study, we have determined that local political party organizations are the most active recruiters of school board candidates in pennsylvania and the most likely to establish slates of candidates for school board seats. they are also the most likely sources of influence in local school board races as determined by the sitting school board members themselves. at this time it is worth asking why local parties would be engaged in such activities. this is especially worth exploring because these organizations are not commonly recognized as key stakeholders in the community when considering what local school boards do and the fact that the constituencies they serve tend to be parents, families, teachers and their unions, students, school administrators such as superintendents, and taxpayers rather than politicians and partisan groups. local party organizations may be engaged in the action of candidate recruitment and slate organization because it is a point of pride for them to demonstrate that they are capable of running candidates for these positions and winning the seats. it is conceivable that victories for these so-called downballot races serve as basic markers for success for the organizations themselves. in other words, they seek out candidates and promote unified slates of these candidates in order to win. although this seems like a sensible action for a political party to engage in, it had not been demonstrated by earlier research in this area. a second possible explanation is that party organizations are engaged in these actions because they also have a sense that they are as influential in local politics as the board members themselves indicated in the survey findings. thus, they want to capitalize on those substantial levels of influence or at least exploit the perceptions of such levels of influence. last, local party organizations could be recruiting candidates to “audition talent” for future races for positions such as county commissioner, state legislator, or county row officer. this could serve as a means for the party to watch how these individuals behave or perform as candidates in order to get a better sense of whether they are worth considering for other positions in the future. although the pennsylvania school board survey finds that just a quarter of respondents are politically ambitious, this does not necessarily mean that the party leaders who are recruiting candidates are not mindful of the need to create a dependable bench of future starting players for their party’s rosters. in support of this point, the survey findings revealed that over 13% of school board members report to having served on a party committee before seeking office. meanwhile, on the basis of the number of party committee positions all politics is organizational 81 in the commonwealth of pennsylvania, it is unlikely that more than 0.003% of the state’s population could serve in this capacity at one point in time. this indicates that a significantly higher share of school board members are connected to their local party organizations than the typical citizen and thus likely have prior relationships with county and local party leaders. it is worth diving a bit deeper into the data regarding candidates who ran as part of a slate of candidates. perhaps as a testament to the power of running as part of an organized slate, over 75% of those who ran as a member of a candidate slate reported that all members of their slate of candidates were successful in both the primary and general elections. meanwhile, about 16% said that all of their slate’s members were successful only in the primary election and about 9% reported that their entire slate was victorious only in the general election. these findings could be interpreted as demonstrating the fact that being coupled or teamed with other candidates on a slate can enhance the opportunity of all of the participating candidates to successfully navigate both the primary and the general elections for pennsylvania school board seats. this is especially interesting given that 30% of candidate slates were organized by political party organizations or officials affiliated with a political party organization and that 22% were organized by incumbent members of the school board, who tend to be deeply connected with the local political party structures. conclusions these findings demonstrate that local political party organizations play a major role in local school board politics. they are more likely than other types of organizations at the local level to engage in the recruitment of candidates for public school board positions. the local parties—not church-affiliated, labor union, or parent groups—are the most highly engaged in the development and formulation of slates of candidates for seats on public school boards and are rated by incumbent board members as the most influential group in elections for local school board seats in pennsylvania. it has also been discovered that pennsylvania’s public school board members are among the most politically engaged members of their communities and are far from being local political neophytes. the findings associated with this study are noteworthy because they run counter to prior scholarship, which emphasizes the role of labor, religious, and education-related organizations in the realm of school district politics. furthermore, these findings present the opportunity to develop a fascinating 82 nathan r. shrader stream of research in the area of local political party organizations. largely thought to be declining due to the centralization of political party operations by the democratic and republican national committees, this study determines that the local parties are still influential, active, and effective (especially when considering the success rate of those reporting to have run as a part of a slate of candidates, which was most likely to be organized by a local party organization). moving forward, i propose that it is essential to dig deeper into the actual organization and operation of local party organizations to offer a clear and descriptive explanation of how they perform the types of operations discussed within the findings of this study. fueled by this exploration of school board politics, these types of research questions should include an assessment of the people who constitute these local organizations, how their leadership structures are developed, and the types of tactics they use when recruiting potential candidates, electing officeholders under the party banner, and conveying their messages to voters at the precinct level of local politics. notes 1. travers (2003) documents the history of the creation of the philadelphia school reform commission. 2. interviews were conducted in the legislators’ district offices in late 2013 and early 2014. legislator 1 was interviewed on november 15, 2013, legislator 2 on november 22, 2013, legislator 3 on december 6, 2013, legislator 4 on january 8, 2014 and legislator 5 on january 24, 2014. references beers, paul b. 1980. pennsylvania politics today and yesterday: the tolerable accommodation. university park: pennsylvania state university press. berkman, michael, and eric plutzer. 2005. ten thousand democracies: politics and public opinion in america’s school districts. washington, dc: georgetown university press. blackwell, joel. 2006. empowering school leaders: personal political power for school board members and administrators. lanham, md: rowman and littlefield education. bogui, frederic. 2008. handbook of governmental accounting. oxford, uk: taylor and francis. bowen, daniel c., and christopher j. clark. 2014. “revisiting descriptive representation in congress: assessing the effect of race on the 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and littlefield education. rosenstone, steven j., and john mark hansen. 1993. mobilization, participation, and democracy in america. new york: macmillan. safire, william. 1993. safire’s new political dictionary. new york: random house. shrader, nathan r. 2011. “swing state in transition: assessing democratic party performance in pennsylvania: 1970–2010.” paper presented at 2011 northeast political science association conference and 2012 pennsylvania political science association conference. available at http://nathanshrader.com/pa. accessed may 1, 2011. ———. 2015. “pennsylvania public school boards: an analysis of politics, policy, and public servants.” ph.d. diss., temple university, philadelphia. stover, del. 2011. “is school board reform coming for you?” american school board journal, november. available at http://www.asbj.com/topicsarchive/leadership/is -school-board-reform-coming-to-you.aspx. accessed march 14, 2017. toppo, greg, and paul overberg. 2015. “fewer than half of teachers now covered by unions.” february 10. available at https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/ nation/2015/02/10/teacher-unions-fewer-half/23195433/. accessed march 15, 2017. travers, eva. 2003. “philadelphia school reform: historical roots and reflections on the 2002–2003 school year under state takeover.” perspectives on urban education 2 (fall): n.p. treadway, jack m. 2005. elections in pennsylvania. university park: pennsylvania state university press. tucker, harvey j., and l. harmon ziegler. 1978. “responsiveness in public school districts: a comparative analysis of boards of education.” legislative studies quarterly 3 (2): 213–237. u.s. census bureau. 2016. public elementary-secondary education finance data—2014. available at https://www.census.gov/govs/school/. accessed march 13, 2017. nathan r. shrader is co-chairman of the department of political science, assistant professor of political science, and director of american studies at millsaps college in jackson, mississippi. he previously served as legislative aide and deputy director of communications to the lieutenant governor of pennsylvania, as a legislative aide in the virginia house of delegates, and as a political campaign professional and consultant. he was a research assistant at the institute for public affairs and center on regional politics at temple university while he completed his doctoral studies. his academic and professional interests include political parties, state and local government, political campaign management, and political marketing. structure bookmarks the role of america’s public school boards pennsylvania as a case study research agenda methodology findings discussion emphasis on local party committees and organizations conclusions book 1.indb commonwealth forum: should pennsylvania abolish the property tax? yes home ownership is part of the american dream. from the homestead act of 1862 to veterans’ loan guarantees to the mortgage income deduction, the federal government has sought to encourage its citizens to buy their own homes. not only does it make people more invested in their communities; it also increases wealth. the most recent federal reserve data shows homeowners’ average net worth is $231,400 as opposed to only $5,200 for renters. the list of benefits goes on. why, then, does pennsylvania continue to make it harder for its citizens to buy and keep their homes by relying heavily on the property tax to fund education? it is hard enough to save for a down payment and then pay your monthly mortgage bill without also paying thousands of dollars per year to the government for the privilege of keeping your home. older people are particularly vulnerable to the property tax since they are often no longer working and living on fixed incomes, yet have to continue to pay taxes on homes they have already paid off. some policy advocates argue that the property tax is the most stable way to pay for education in the commonwealth. they claim that we should keep the property tax but provide more financial relief to those who are hit hardest by its effects. the problem is that pennsylvania has been down that road before. in 1961 the state established a sales and use tax to help fund education. the income tax was passed in 1971, with one of its goals to help increase education funding. casino gambling was legalized in 2006 with some revenue being devoted to property tax relief. despite all these new sources of revenue, property taxes keep going up. pennsylvanians hate the property tax. piecemeal reforms have not worked. let’s end this problem once and for all by abolishing the property tax and funding education through a combination of sales and income tax increases. no with rights come responsibilities. the ideological origins of the united states are bound to the growth and government recognition of individual liberties, such as the right to own property. this was a new concept in the 196 chapter 9 western world. previously, kings and lords controlled the land, and the lower classes paid a fee to use it. in the united states, however, the democratically elected government took the place of the overlords, and the people still paid a fee, or tax, for use of the land. shared public goods, such as an educated citizenry, must be paid for from the public purse somehow. the property tax is the least volatile and is the closest to a tax on wealth the commonwealth has. in the sixth most regressive state tax system, it represents a small victory for a fairer tax structure. low income residents already pay disproportionately more of their paychecks toward the sales and income taxes—the two taxes advocates for property tax elimination champion as a replacement. increases in these taxes would hurt the middle and working classes much more than the rich. simple economics dictates that those too poor to own homes still pay property taxes through rent. landlords are unlikely to pass on their savings in whole. additionally, business would get a huge tax break if they did not have to pay property taxes. instead, their gain would result in the loss of more hardearned income on the part of workers. many complain elderly citizens are particularly hurt by the existence of the property tax. however, programs already exist to target relief in this demographic in addition to the homestead exemption available to all owneroccupiers. others lament that they should not have to pay taxes toward a system in which they have no children. such individualistic thinking is counter to any reasonable notion of civic responsibility or continuity between generations. the property tax is not paying the government for the use of your own property, but an investment in the community, and when spent on public education, future generations of well-informed citizens capable of governing themselves. for more information the pennsylvania independent fiscal office (http:// www .ifo .state .pa .us) provides revenue projections and policy analysis on various tax proposals for the public and general assembly. their website has a dedicated section on the property tax. the tax foundation (https:// taxfoundation .org) is a long-running nonprofit tracking tax policy across the united states. their website has a wealth of information on federal and state tax policy, as well as tax law. the tax policy center (https:// www .taxpolicycenter .org) is a joint venture of the brookings institution and the urban institute that provides research for the public and policy makers on tax policy. from pennsylvania politics and policy: a commonwealth reader, volume 2. edited by michelle j. atherton and j. wesley leckrone (philadelphia, temple university press, 2019). commonweal a journal of pennsylvania politics and p th olicy editor in chief j. wesley leckrone, widener university managing editor michelle j. atherton, temple university associate editors christopher borick, muhlenberg college paula a. duda holoviak, kutztown university joseph p. mclaughlin, jr., temple university editorial advisory board bruce caswell, rowan university beverly a. cigler, pennsylvania state university, harrisburg richardson dilworth, drexel university john j. kennedy, west chester university john kincaid, lafayette college joseph marbach, georgian court university david y. miller, university of pittsburgh megan mullin, duke university richard a. stafford, carnegie mellon university founding editor emeritus donald g. tannenbaum, gettysburg college editors emeritus thomas j. baldino, wilkes university gerard j. fitzpatrick, ursinus college published by temple university press on behalf of the pennsylvania political science association the pennsylvania political science association founded in 1939, the pennsylvania political science association (ppsa) is the nation’s oldest state political science association. its mission has always been to promote scholarship, research, and the exchange of ideas within the pennsylvania community of political scientists. ppsa draws its membership principally from the political science and public administration faculties of pennsylvania’s public and private colleges and universities but also includes government professionals and faculty members from surrounding states. ppsa’s annual conference includes dozens of panelists covering a wide variety of subjects. while university faculty compose the vast majority of participants, legislators, legislative staff, executive officials, and undergraduates also have participated. for more information on the activities of ppsa and membership rates, please visit the association’s website at http://www.papolisci.org/. http://www.papolisci.org/%7bcomp pennsylvania policy forum c ommonwealth collaborates with the pennsylvania policy forum to plan special issues and attract high-quality content to the journal. the forum is a consortium of faculty members and academic and policy institute leaders from pennsylvania colleges and universities who share an interest in generating ideas, analyses, and symposiums that might prove useful to citizens, elected officials, and civic leaders in addressing major issues confronting the commonwealth and its local governments. as educators who have helped train students for careers in public policy, members also share an interest in helping to improve the skills, knowledge, and tools of leaders in the public and civic sectors. members of the forum have expertise in public policy analysis as well as a wide range of substantive issues, including but not limited to education, transportation and public infrastructure, economic development, agriculture, energy, elections, water policy and the environment, health care, social policy, urban development, emergency management, information technology, public finance, and constitutional law. members also share an interest in improving both the policy process itself and the institutional structures through which issues and problems are addressed. forum members have contributed to public policy debates in pennsylvania, and a number have also served in state and local government and in nonprofit and civic organizations that engage in policy development and implementation. some members of the forum are associated with other academic and public policy–related organizations, but the forum itself is independent of these relationships and has no formal connections to any government entity. members obviously benefit from the intellectual resources and environments of their universities, but unless otherwise indicated, they do not act on behalf of their institutions when they sponsor forum projects. the premise of the forum is that through the consortium, members can jointly develop and sponsor nonpartisan research, symposiums, and education and training programs of value to elected officials, civic leaders, and the public and thereby enhance their ability to contribute to more intelligent and informed policy making. contents virtual issue number 1 | 2020 editor's note matters: introduction to virtual issue on controversial issues in pennsylvania politics and policy j. wesley leckrone, editor-in-chief state government forum: should pennsylvania adopt direct democracy? commonwealth forum: does pennsylvania need a large, full-time legislature? forum: do businesspeople make good chief executives? elections commonwealth forum: should pennsylvania adopt a citizens’ redistricting commission to draw congressional districts? forum: should pennsylvania adopt early voting? budgeting and taxes commonwealth forum: addressing pennsylvania’s structural budget deficit revitalizing pennsylvania through government reform bob dick the continuing pennsylvania crisis in perspective marc stier forum: should pennsylvania abolish the property tax? part i forum: should pennsylvania rely on sin taxes for revenue? forum: should pennsylvania tax retirement income? forum: should pennsylvania enact a natural gas severance tax? ii contents public policy issues forum: would mandated paid leave be a competitive disadvantage for pennsylvania? forum: should pennsylvania allow safe injection sites? forum: should the state provide support to rural hospitals? forum: should pennsylvania end the practice of holdharmless funding? forum: should state government subsidizee the economic development of natural gas facilities? forum: should pennsylvania enact work requirements for medicaid recipients? forum: should pennsylvania abolish the property tax? part ii yes, abolish the property tax: david g. argall and john hopcraft no, keep the property tax: william a. fischel vi-2020 table of contents in commonwealth format vi-2020 table of contents vi-2020 toc 2 is this the care we need? an examination of childcare policy in pennsylvania commonwealth, volume 19, issue 2 (2017). © 2017 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/com.v19i2.153. all rights reserved. is this the care we need? an examination of childcare policy in pennsylvania jennie sweet-cushman chatham university ashley harden chatham university for many families across pennsylvania, child care is an ever-present concern. since the 1970s, when richard nixon vetoed a national childcare program, child care has received little time in the policy spotlight. instead, funding for child care in the united states now comes from a mixture of federal, state, and local programs that do not help all families. this article explores childcare options available to families in the state of pennsylvania and highlights gaps in the current system. specifically, we examine the state of child care available to families in the commonwealth in terms of quality, accessibility, flexibility, and affordability. we also incorporate survey data from a nonrepresentative sample of registered pennsylvania voters conducted by the pennsylvania center for women and politics. as these results support the need for improvements in the current childcare system, we discuss recommendations for the future. for working families with young children, child care is an ever-present concern. parents need quality care that meets the needs of their children, accommodates their work schedules, and is safe and reasonably priced. finding care that meets these criteria may be difficult and can be a significant burden on a family. this report outlines the state of this challenge for families in pennsylvania. it examines the status of quality childcare access in the state, the challenges that exist, and the policies in place at all levels of 28 jennie sweet-cushman and ashley harden government. furthermore, this report includes some insight, from a nonrepresentative sample of registered voters, into how pennsylvanians assess the government’s role in ensuring quality, affordable child care and offers responsible policy suggestions for improving care options for pennsylvania’s families. of course, the challenge of accessing child care is not limited to pennsylvania. families in every corner of the united states are in search of acceptable childcare options, which are becoming more difficult to find as the gap between costs and what families can reasonably afford widens. childcare costs for one child can range from $344 a month in rural south carolina to $1,472 in washington, dc (cooke and gould 2015). in fact, just one year of child care, averaging $10,000 in 2013, can exceed the cost of a year of in-state college tuition (the white house 2015). this is true in 33 states and the district of columbia, with infant care costs exceeding the cost of in-state college tuition at public 4-year institutions (cooke and gould 2015). in pennsylvania in 2014, center-based infant care cost an average of $10,470 a year and $7,943 a year in home-based care (legislative budget and finance committee 2015). for one four-year-old child, parents pay an average of $8,727 a year for center-based care, and $7,128 for home-based care (legislative budget and finance committee 2015). according to the national childcare resource child care aware of america, in pennsylvania the cost for a married couple with children averages almost 14% of the median income. for single mothers, the financial burden is particularly high, absorbing up to 40% of their annual income (child care aware of america 2014). in addition, 40% greatly exceeds the u.s. department of health and human services recommendation of a 10% affordability threshold for child care (cooke and gould 2015). in fact, according to a report created by the economic policy institute (epi), in only a handful of the epi’s 618 family budget regions are childcare costs near the recommended 10% threshold (cooke and gould 2015). this is a major financial consideration for most families, and especially impacts low-income and single family households. pennsylvania ranks 22nd for least-affordable infant care1 and 20th for least-affordable care of four-year-olds (child care aware of america 2014).2 arguably, this major concern for parents has received minor public policy attention, and a complex web of public policy prescriptions at the national, state, and local levels offers only a weak network of support for parents who need help finding and affording care. why child care matters studies have shown that learning begins at birth, and during the first few years of life a child undergoes growth in cognitive skills, social skills, emotional skills, and patterns of engagement in school and learning (florida’s office of is this the care we need? 29 early learning 2012; zero to three: national center for infants, toddlers and families 2014; morin 2014). early years are remarkably important; by four years of age, a child’s brain is usually 90% developed (winter 2010). high-quality child care is linked to school readiness, physical well-being, motor development, social and emotional development, and cognitive and language development (brown 2002).3 furthermore, children who receive quality child care exhibit benefits in all stages of childhood and into adulthood. in elementary school, these children have improved math and language ability, fewer behavioral problems, fewer cognitive and social issues, and are less likely to have to repeat a grade (reynolds et al. 2001; schweinhart et al. 2005; peisner-feinbert and yazejian 2004). as children age, those who participated in preschool are more likely to graduate from high school and less likely to enter a juvenile detention program (reynolds et al. 2001). as adults, these children are less likely to commit a crime or felony, less likely to rely on social assistance programs, and more likely to be employed in a high-skilled job (schweinhart et al. 2005). quality child care has also been linked to increased intellectual and language test performance, and higher median annual earnings (schweinhart et al. 2005). on the other hand, studies have found that children who have experienced poor-quality child care may lack academic interest, adequate school skills, and exhibit heightened aggression (helburn and howes 1996). child care matters not only to parents and their children but (as it should) to u.s. businesses as well. in the united states, businesses lose “$3 billion annually due to employee absenteeism as a result of childcare breakdowns” (child care aware of america 2015). in a six-month timeframe, 45% of parents miss at least one day of work due to a failure of childcare plans. additionally, 65% of parents reported having to make adjustments to their work schedules due to the challenges of child care (child action n.d.). in 2014, problems related to child care prevented 6.2% of families from spending more time at work (regiontrack inc. 2015). many parents have few options but to stay home when a child is sick or schools are closed. this situation also presents challenges for employers. in a 1992 survey, nearly 30% of workers knew employees who quit their jobs due to inadequate child care (economic opportunity institute n.d.). the ability to retain employees is important to companies and affects their bottom line (abbasi and hollman 2000). yet, when a company has to hire and train a new employee it costs them 150% of a salaried employee’s annual pay and 75% of an hourly employee’s annual salary (child action n.d.). visible costs of replacing an employee include things such as recruitment, hiring, and orientation, while hidden costs include things such as disruption of work flow, vacancy until the job is filled, and disruption of customer relations (abbasi and hollman 2000). 30 jennie sweet-cushman and ashley harden research conducted by the families and work institute, found that employers find substantial benefits of childcare programs (department of treasury n.d.). in a survey of more than 1,100 companies, more than twothirds of respondents reported that the costs of childcare programs are outweighed by the benefits, or that the programs are at least cost-neutral (department of treasury n.d.). the availability of quality child care provides both shortand long-term economic benefits. in the short term, an increase in childcare centers has the potential to provide jobs and, in turn, allow employees to spend wages and pay taxes. centers also purchase goods and services, and company sponsored childcare centers enable employers to attract and retain employees and increase productivity (calman and tarr-whelan 2005). in the long term, the benefits children receive from quality child care cause the economy to experience a boost due to the lowered cost for remedial and special education services, more school completion and increased skills, better job preparedness and ability to meet future labor demands, higher incomes and tax payments, lower criminal justice costs, and fewer welfare payments (calman and tarrwhelan 2005). in pennsylvania, a report using impact analysis for planning (implan), an economic modeling system often used to analyze economic impact, looked at how the childcare industry impacts the state. implan revealed that, in pennsylvania, each additional dollar that is invested in early child care and education contributes $2.06 to the state’s economy. thus, while providing access to quality child care for children within pennsylvania4 would require $2.2 billion in investment, the investment would yield $2.4 billion in additional sales in pennsylvania’s economy. the $2.2 billion price tag would also generate 75,000 jobs, an estimated 17,000 of which would be found in other economic sectors (america’s edge 2011). policy: an inadequate patchwork but these investments receive little serious consideration in either the public or private sector, leaving families to rely on a weak and often inadequate system of public and private solutions. in 1971, there was much promise as the united states seemed to be moving toward universal child care when the comprehensive child development act was proposed. this legislation would have mandated that childcare programs be available to all children regardless of race, economic status, and family background (cohen 1996). while the act passed through congress, president richard nixon vetoed it, and there have been no subsequent serious attempts at providing universal child care. instead, funding for child care now comes from a mixture of federal, state, and local programs. is this the care we need? 31 federal at the federal level, existing programs are typically implemented at the state and/or local level and combine financial resources as well. these programs include the childcare and development block grant (part of the childcare and development fund),5 head start and early head start, childcare means parents in school program (ccampis),6 child and dependent care credit (cdcc),7 and childcare works.8 the childcare and development fund provides subsidies to assist low-income families in paying for child care. parents are provided either a slot at a contracted care provider or a voucher that can be used at any provider that meets state requirements (national center for children in poverty 2014). states have some flexibility in setting income eligibility requirements and parental co-payment fees (assistant secretary for planning and evaluation 2015), though requirements include a maximum income eligibility limit of 85% of the state median income (national center for children in poverty 2014). in pennsylvania, as of 2013 for a family of three, the 85% threshold equates to $4,675 a month or less (office of child care n.d.).9 as of september 2015, 92,800 children in pennsylvania were being served under this program (child care state systems specialist network 2015). the federal expenditure under this program was $339 million, while the state’s contribution was $97 million (childcare state systems specialist network 2015). the childcare and development block grant is used as a supplement for state funds for childcare assistance (federalgrantswire 2015). both the federal head start and early head start programs promote school readiness in young children from low-income families. they focus on five domains, including language and literacy, cognitive and general knowledge, approaches to learning, physical development and health, and social and emotional development (early childhood learning and knowledge center 2015). head start is administered by the u.s. department of health and human services; however, the $7.2 billion in federal funding is filtered to states to implement these programs (head start 2014). despite ever-present need, pennsylvania received 14.9% less federal funding for the head start and early head start programs in 2015, and 26.5% fewer children were served (head start 2014; child care state systems specialist network 2015). the childcare access means parents in school (ccampis) program provides child care for low-income parents who are also eligible for the higher education federal pell grant (u.s. department of education 2014). the funds help support campus-based child care for primarily low-income students enrolled in institutions of higher learning (u.s. department of education 2014). in 2014, $15 million was allocated for ccampis grants (u.s. department of education 2014). three grant recipients were located in pennsylvania: 32 jennie sweet-cushman and ashley harden northampton county area community college, pennsylvania college of technology, and slippery rock university of pennsylvania (childcare access means parents in school program 2014). childcare works also allows states to combine federal funding with their own contribution (department of human services 2015). in pennsylvania, the program supports residents who require care in order to work at least 20 hours a week or participate in an education program (department of human services 2015). income qualifications stipulate that a family’s income must be 200% or less of the federal poverty income guidelines (department of human services 2015). for a family of three in pennsylvania, this equates to less than $40,320 annually (families usa 2016). in 2008, pennsylvania was allocated $1.8 million in federal funding to help remove children from their childcare works waiting list, but the waiting list continues to grow (pennsylvania office of child development and early learning 2009). in 2014, childcare works served approximately 160,000 children in pennsylvania, only 22% of those who qualified (legislative budget and finance committee 2015). the programs described offer some insight into how difficult it can be for families to understand what program they qualify for because the federal programs have different income requirements and are funded in different ways. federal employees are also eligible to receive affordable child care at the academy for early learning, which is managed by the general services administration (academy for early learning 2015). for civilian workers, this child care is paid for by the childcare subsidy program, while for military personnel, funding is provided by the army fee assistance program (academy for early learning 2015). finally, the federal government also uses tax credits to help families in the form of the child and dependent care credit. to qualify for this credit, an individual must have paid someone to care for their child in the last year, the child must be 12 or younger, and the care must have been provided so you could work or look for work. the credit may be up to 35% of the qualifying expenses depending on adjusted gross income (internal revenue service 2011). in 2012, more than 228,000 pennsylvanians claimed this credit on their federal income taxes, which amounted to $121 million in tax credits (legislative budget and finance committee 2015). state at the state level, pennsylvania enables several unique child programs, though in many cases the state pulls from federal funds not otherwise earmarked is this the care we need? 33 for the programs described above. governor tom wolf ’s 2015–2016 budget,10 proposed $35 million in federal funds to be invested in childcare programs, including $18 million for providing childcare assistance (wolf 2015). the state is primarily responsible for regulating care quality. in pennsylvania, the keystone stars program measures the quality of pennsylvania’s childcare facilities on a scale of one to four stars. keystone stars was created as an initiative of the state’s office of child development and early learning (pennsylvania early learning 2009). the program measures staff education, learning environment, leadership management, and family and community partnerships. the program is voluntary for providers, but can allow families to measure quality of the care they use or seek (pennsylvania department of human services n.d.). as of march 2011, 978 programs in pennsylvania had a top keystone stars rating of 3 or 4—a 10% increase from 2010 (keystone stars 2011). however, only 20% of participants in the childcare works program, for instance, received care at a highest-rated provider (pennsylvania partnerships for children 2013). pennsylvania also created the program pre-k counts,11 which is a public-private partnership designed to help expand high-quality child care for threeand four-year-olds (psea education services division 2008). with a combination of both public tax dollars and support from prominent pennsylvania foundations, pre-k counts offers free, high-quality pre-kindergarten that is available for either fullor half-day classes. income eligibility is more inclusive than many other programs, as a child’s family must be under 300% of the federal poverty level, or be a language-minority, or demonstrate cultural or special needs (psea education services division 2008). the program is state funded through grants, with pennsylvania allocating $82.8 million to fund the program in 2012–2013 (pre-k for pa 2014). the program has over 300 childhood programs and many school districts currently participating (psea education services division 2008). pre-k counts appears to be quite successful. for instance, a 2010–2011 evaluation of the program indicated that nearly every child (99%) showed age-appropriate or emerging age-appropriate language, math, and social skills after their time in the program (pennsylvania pre-k counts 2011). unfortunately though, in 2010–2011 the program served only 11,500 children in 62 counties, representing only 4% of the preschoolers in the commonwealth. more than 4,500 children were on the wait list for the program (pennsylvania pre-k counts 2011). students on the wait list are eligible for assistance but, because of limited funding, are admitted only as spaces become available. 34 jennie sweet-cushman and ashley harden local at the local level, many different types of unique programs vary by county, and even municipality, within the state. this variation creates substantial disparities in access to affordable child care and childcare assistance throughout the state and there is no comprehensive approach to how, to whom, or where these programs do exist. many of these programs are initiated and run by nonprofit organizations and have a variety of funding sources—including grants from federal and state funding sources that are not a part of other federal and state childcare programs. in pittsburgh, for instance, one local program is angels’ place: a place to grow. this nonprofit organization provides single, low-income full-time students with free child care and family support programs to help them complete their education (angels’ place 2012). the child care provided is flexible, monday–friday, year round, and is provided for children between birth to five years. in 2013–2014, 71 parents participated and 91 children benefited from the program. angels’ place (2012) reports 86% of the participating children obtained age-appropriate skill levels or higher. furthermore, pittsburgh public schools early childhood education department provides children birth to five years with a flexible program that is funded through a combination of government funding sources (pittsburgh public schools n.d.). for incomeeligible families there is no cost, and for families whose income is 300% or more than the poverty level there is a fee-for-service model (pittsburgh public schools n.d.). if there is more interest in one site than spots available, a lottery is held and the remaining children are placed on a wait list (pittsburgh public schools n.d.). the ymca in both pittsburgh and philadelphia also provide child care using an income-based scale. for instance, in philadelphia, rates usually fall between $208 and $235 a week (philadelphia freedom valley ymca 2015). the ymca programs are funded by a combination of charitable contributions, membership dues, program dues, and fundraising. the nonprofit’s program at the roxborough center has earned a 4-star rating and is also a pre-k counts site (philadelphia freedom valley ymca 2015). in philadelphia, the school district of philadelphia also directly provides preschool to more than 9,500 children through its bright futures program (combined with a federal head start program) (school district of philadelphia n.d.). a sprinkling of other programs is available throughout other counties, including the childcare scholarship fund in butler county, the community action program (cap) childcare center and lancaster early education center, the west chester area day care center, the elizabethtown childcare is this the care we need? 35 center, and the cambria county child development corporation program. the childcare scholarship fund in butler county administers aid for lowincome families and aims to provide 50 families an average of 58 days of care (united way of butler county 2015). in lancaster, the cap childcare center provides full-time care, for which families pay using their ccis subsidy plus a daily $5–$25 co-pay (community action program of lancaster county 2015). costs at the lancaster early education center are subsidized in part by donations, private contributions, and fundraising activities (lancaster early education center n.d.). the west chester area day care center is a nonprofit program that does not impose caps on how many children on subsidies can enter the program and offers scholarships for families in financial crisis. the program has a star 3 rating and is funded by state and county subsidies, private fees, the united way and food program grant, and parent co-pay (west chester area day care center 2015). the elizabethtown childcare center provides care for infants to school age children up to fifth grade. the center is a nonprofit organization that is funded through community and corporate donations as well as fundraising. tuition assistance is provided on a sliding fee scale based on income (elizabethtown childcare center n.d.). in cambria county, the child development corporation program of cambria provides before and after school care for infants, toddlers, and preschoolers for $20 per week for five hours of care plus $4 an hour per child past 5 hours. the program is funded by the pennsylvania department of education and the 21st century community learning centers grant (cambria county child development corporation 2013). these are just some examples of local pennsylvania programs that offer child care to moderate and low-income families. other options can include having a friend or family member care for the child or receiving noncenter care in a private home. a parent can also remain home with the child, though for financial reasons, this option is not available to many. yet while a range of local, state, and federal childcare options are available, a number of obstacles may hinder a parent’s ability to use them, as described below. status of care in pennsylvania: challenges many challenges stand in the way of obtaining quality care in pennsylvania. the patchwork of care that is currently available is far from systematically covering all families. some options are unaffordable for many families. quality of programs varies significantly and may be hard to assess, since childcare programs are not required to participate in the pennsylvania keystone stars 36 jennie sweet-cushman and ashley harden program. families also face issues with accessibility; more children need care than there are available spaces. furthermore, parents who work nontraditional schedules must face a lack of programs offering more flexible hours. these challenges, discussed in the next section, stand in the way of providing quality child care for all of pennsylvania’s children. affordability despite the importance of early child care for development, current programs are not keeping up with the need. low-income and single-parent homes are especially affected, with many parents unable to afford the child care they need. these families, already at or close to the poverty level, are not guaranteed government assistance. in 2012, the bureau of labor statistics reported that over 10 million people were considered to be among the “working poor” (bls reports 2014). in pennsylvania, more than a quarter of children under six and almost 18% of older children live below the poverty line. however, due to a lack of federal funding, in 2011, only 17% of the estimated 14.3 million children who would qualify for federal childcare assistance received it, with assistance in 2013 at its lowest levels since 1997 (national women’s law center 2015a). in terms of specific programs, in 2015, estimates suggest that head start, which provides care and education for low-income children under the age of five, reached only half of eligible children, while the early head start program reached only 5% of the eligible infants and toddlers nationally (national women’s law center 2015a). nationally, the childcare and development fund served only an estimated 12%–15% of eligible children in recent years (administration for children and families 2000). out of children who received funding in 2011, most funding went toward younger children (assistant secretary for planning and evaluation 2011). demand far exceeds the available support in pennsylvania, as well; with limited funds and lengthy waitlists, programs cannot support every needy child. instead, only some of the neediest receive care, and the rest often slip through the cracks. quality even when families can afford care, a lack of quality childcare facilities poses a challenge. one cost, quality, and child outcomes study focused on child care across four states, including california, colorado, connecticut, and north carolina (helburn and howes 1996). examining 401 childcare centers, researchers found that 86% of the centers provided mediocre or poor-quality is this the care we need? 37 services, while only 14% of centers met levels of process quality high enough to support the emotional development of children. but studies like this reveal little about the unregulated environments where an abundance of children receive care. in pennsylvania, when care is provided in the home to three or fewer children, it is left up to the parents to monitor the child care provided, and quality varies. in those settings that are regulated, very few meet pennsylvania’s keystone stars12 requirements for four-star facilities. for pennsylvania, the most recent process quality study was conducted in 2006 using the early childhood environment rating scale, revised (ecersr) and family day care rating scale (fdcrs) (pennsylvania office of child development 2006). the study looked at 356 childcare centers, 81 group homes, and 135 family childcare homes (pennsylvania office of child development 2006). the ecers-r measured program quality using seven subscales including things such as program structure, activities, and personal care routines (pennsylvania office of child development 2006), whereas the fdcrs measured the quality of family childcare programs using seven subscales including things such as basic care, adult needs, and social development (pennsylvania office of child development 2006). quality of child care in pennsylvania has increased over time, primarily due to participation in the stars program (pennsylvania office of child development 2006). compared to the previous study, conducted in 2002, in 2006, family and group practitioners rated higher in quality according to the fdcrs, and childcare centers rated higher according to the ecers (pennsylvania office of child development 2006). moreover, facilities rated as 2 stars or higher were rated significantly higher in quality than they were in 2002 (pennsylvania office of child development 2006). nonetheless, provider standards are mandated and enforced by the state, and each year many childcare facilities are found in violation of standards. for group childcare homes and childcare centers inspections occur when a facility first opens and annually after that. every year, 15% of family childcare homes are randomly selected for inspection (pennsylvania’s promise 2016). some recent violations included broken glass found in play areas, unfenced pools, and leaking ceilings (parks 2015). the rating system and monitoring does not appear to help pennsylvania’s national reputation on child care. the national institute for early education (nieer) measures the quality of pre-k programs across the country using criteria such as early learning standards, teacher qualifications, and class sizes. nieer gave pennsylvania a seven out of 10 quality score for providing merely 10% of three-year-olds and 2% of four-year-olds quality pre-kindergarten 38 jennie sweet-cushman and ashley harden education (pre-k for pa 2014). this places pennsylvania behind states such as oklahoma which provided 14% of three-year-olds and 87% of four-yearolds pre-k through head start, and the district of columbia, which served 96% of three-year-olds and 100% of four-year-olds pre-k (pre-k for pa 2014). in another area, licensing inspection, pennsylvania was ranked 14th in the nation, on the basis of factors of oversight and regulation (naccrra 2016). accessibility even when families are eligible for childcare subsidies, they are not guaranteed assistance. in 2014, 18 states had either waiting lists or were no longer accepting names even for the waitlist for assistance. in some states, families are placed on a waiting list for quite some time with lists in some states reaching into the thousands (national women’s law center 2015b). as of february 2014, 2,651 children were on the wait list for childcare assistance in pennsylvania (schulman and blank 2014). families are told that wait times can vary, and are usually at least several months or longer. as of january 2015, it was estimated that those eligible in pennsylvania would wait at least four months for childcare works funding. this delay could pose significant challenges to families whose members need to maintain jobs or go to school in the meantime. also, some programs allow applications before babies are even born, though there is no guarantee a spot is available when the baby is born. furthermore, while prices do become more affordable as children get older, almost 30% of children in pennsylvania six years and older live in a one-parent working household and nearly 40% live in a two-parent working household (child care state systems specialist network 2015), a majority of which require some before and/or afterschool and summer care. generally, the need for assistance far outweighs the availability of assistance available. nontraditional schedules another problem that families face is lack of child care for nontraditional schedules. families of all incomes work nights or weekends, rather than a typical nine-to-five schedule. as many as one-third of working-poor mothers and more than one-quarter of working-class mothers work on weekends (hofferth 1996),13 and half of working-poor parents work a rotating schedule, potentially requiring them to work weekends. despite this, only 10% of centers and 6% of family day-care homes provide weekend care (vandell and wolfe n.d.). while studies have mostly focused on those of lower income, nontraditional schedules can impact any family with young children. in addition, working is this the care we need? 39 overtime may not be an option for families who have to juggle child care and work, placing a further financial disadvantage on families. public opinion on child care while public opinion is notoriously subject to change, public policy can be much slower to change—which has clearly been the case in the realm of child care (cassese and barnes unpublished). americans have consistently supported greater federal and state assistance for child care. in a national study of 1,500 voters conducted by edk associates, the majority of voters expressed support for public financing of child care, while six in 10 voters expressed support for a significant proposal meant to make quality child care affordable, and 67% favored a more limited package (klein n.d.). a 2000 poll by the opinion research corporation international found that 68% of respondents rated “providing access to after school programs and early childhood development programs like head start as a higher priority than cutting taxes” (sylvester n.d.). in 2002, 80% of washington state voters agreed that tax dollars should be used to support early learning programs for children, while 76% favored providing funds for all-day kindergarten accessible by all children, and 75% supported funds for high quality preschool for all threeto four-yearolds (economic opportunity institute 2002). as these large majorities suggest, support for developing public policy to improve early learning cut across income, age, geography, party affiliation, and gender (economic opportunity institute 2002). in 2010, child care aware conducted multiple national surveys hoping to better understand what parents needed and wanted out of their childcare options. the organization found that parents’ top two concerns were quality of child care (38%) and cost (20%) (national association of childcare resource and referral agencies 2011). furthermore, 73% of all parents supported paying $10 more in taxes a year to improve childcare quality, and 65% supported paying $10 more in taxes a year to reduce the cost of child care (national association of childcare resource and referral agencies 2011). emphasizing how crucial child care is to working families, 31% of respondents in another survey rated affordable child care as the most important factor affecting families (national association of childcare resource and referral agencies 2010). of significant concern were the 20% of parents who reported using their savings to pay for child care and the 10% who reported either removing their children from a formal arrangement, moving closer to relatives, or moving their children to a care center of lesser quality in order to save money (national association of childcare resource and referral agencies 40 jennie sweet-cushman and ashley harden 2010). those parents who are earning low incomes were more likely to say that they changed childcare arrangements due to not being able to pay (35%) and were more likely to support the use of federal funds to reduce the cost of child care (59%) (national association of childcare resource and referral agencies 2010). last, a 2015 washington post report found that 37% of mothers rated their cost of child care as very expensive (washington post 2015). parents were also asked to rate how easy or difficult it was to find child care in their area that was both affordable and high quality. in this case, mothers rated finding child care as very difficult 28% of the time. when asked how satisfied parents were with the flexibility in their work schedule after their first child, only 56% of mothers were satisfied. many parents even reported quitting their jobs or switching to a less demanding (and often lower paying) job in order to manage childcare concerns (washington post 2015). these various reports demonstrate that the majority of people within the united states support increased federal and state funding for childcare programs. moreover, women appear to be especially vulnerable to a lack of child care, quitting or changing their jobs to accommodate their children. many households are willing to tolerate a small increase in taxes to help establish quality childcare facilities as well as making child care more affordable. pennsylvanian attitudes on childcare issues in 2015, the pennsylvania center for women and politics commissioned a survey of voters in the state to examine how public opinion around issues of child care matched up with the patchwork of policies described above. we use this data to specifically examine whether voters’ preferences and perceptions around issues of child care align with the provision of childcare policy in the state. the survey asked voters of the commonwealth to report their impressions of childcare options available to pennsylvania families— revealing whether they see the options as adequate on measures of accessibility, affordability, and safety. the survey also asked them to provide some feedback on what child care should look like in pennsylvania. should, for instance, families pay more or less than they currently do for care? what level of government should be most involved in providing care subsidies or regulations? using the 2014 qualified voter file of registered voters in pennsylvania, 2000 voters were randomly selected to receive a mail survey in june 2015 via the u.s. postal service. a follow-up postcard was also sent in early august 2015 offering an online version of the survey. eighty-six respondents returned their mail surveys, and five completed the online version, for a total response is this the care we need? 41 rate of 4.5% (n = 91). while this response rate is low, it is not surprising (dillman 2011). americans have grown increasingly skeptical of “junk mail” and are accordingly less and less likely to complete mail surveys. nonetheless, the small sample of respondents still provides a unique perspective of pennsylvanians, albeit a nonrepresentative one. that said, to our knowledge these data are the only public opinion data of their kind that are specific to pennsylvania. of the respondents, more than 90% described themselves as white, which is somewhat higher than the 2014 u.s. census report that about 83% of pennsylvanians are white (u.s. census 2014). the average age was 55 years, with ages ranging from 21 to 85 years old. likely due to the topic of the survey, a majority of the respondents were women (74%) and most had college or advanced degrees or had attended some college (82%). most participants were either married or in a long-term committed relationship (65.9%). the mean household income was in the range of $30,000–$52,500. the sample skewed somewhat more democrat (46% democrat, 30% republican, 24% independent) (pennsylvania department of state 2014). according to our survey data, voters are not necessarily opposed to childcare policy manifesting in the form of the patchwork described here. despite the limitations within the current system, a plurality of pennsylvania survey respondents (36%) indicated that funding and regulation for programs should be the responsibility of multiple levels of government—potentially expressing approval for the current system of shared responsibility. of the survey respondents, 42% reported that they believe quality of child care in the commonwealth is average or better. partisan differences were also common on this measure, though many republicans in the sample indicated that they either “didn’t know” or had “no opinion” of the quality of care available (see table 1). table 1. survey respondent perception of quality, by political affiliation quality poor below average average above average excellent democrat 1 8 14 4 1 independent 0 5 7 1 2 republican 2 1 6 6 0 total % 4 14 27 11 4 note: (1) as a consequence of “no response” and “don’t know” answers, percentages do not equal 100%. (2) n = 91. source: pennsylvania center for women and politics child care survey 2015. 42 jennie sweet-cushman and ashley harden the survey data respondents did, however, seem to have other concerns similar to those reflected in national public opinion. in particular, respondents with household incomes under $30,000/year were more likely to express concerns about affordability and funding of child care. most respondents indicated that they view costs for child care in the state as being “average,” but democrats and independents were more likely to express more concern about the cost of care (see table 2). it is also possible to see evidence of concerns around issues of flexibility and availability of care in the survey data. very few respondents expressed that they thought access to or flexibility in options was “excellent,” and while most rated these criteria as “average,” notable minorities gave “below average” or worse ratings for both accessibility and flexibility (15% and 17%, respectively). (see tables 3 and 4.) table 2. survey respondent perception of affordability, by political affiliation affordability poor below average average above average excellent democrat 4 10 13 1 0 independent 1 2 12 1 0 republican 1 0 10 1 2 total % 6 12 35 4 2 note: (1) as a consequence of “no response” and “don’t know” answers, percentages do not equal 100%. (2) n = 91. source: pennsylvania center for women and politics child care survey 2015. table 3. survey respondent perception of accessibility, by political affiliation accessibility poor below average average above average excellent democrat 2 7 10 11 0 independent 2 1 12 1 0 republican 0 1 6 6 4 total % 5 10 27 18 4 note: (1) as a consequence of “no response” and “don’t know” answers, percentages do not equal 100%. (2) n = 91. source: pennsylvania center for women and politics child care survey 2015. is this the care we need? 43 despite the seeming limitations of child care in pennsylvania, survey participants’ ratings of quality, affordability, f lexibility, and safety were mostly favorable. most who felt they had enough knowledge to rate child care in these areas ranked the state’s options as being “average” on each of the above metrics. furthermore, those with children, tended to offer better ratings, a perhaps encouraging perspective. however, very few respondents viewed child care in the state as “excellent” on any measure. conclusion: addressing inadequacies despite legitimate concerns around policy and public opinion about policy highlighted in this report, few attempts have been made to change our current system. at the state level, legislation has been consistently introduced, but with little success. a recent exception of incremental reform was hb1322 in december 2015. governor tom wolf signed into law the bipartisan sponsored bill, which addressed issues of potential fraud in subsidized care and upgraded state programming that provides child care for low-income parents seeking training or education. while pennsylvania seems slow to make changes, other states have had greater success. florida, new york city, vermont, and washington, dc, provide free pre-kindergarten to all resident children (national education association n.d.). the programs vary in daily length of program, number of free hours provided, and in some cases provide after school care for older children. each program incorporates a curriculum and quality requirements, making high-quality child care affordable to all. suffering from chronically poor education performance, mississippi, in 2013, introduced a new pre-k program to serve 15,000 children throughout table 4. survey respondent perception of flexibility, by political affiliation flexibility poor below average average above average excellent democrat 2 8 12 4 0 independent 1 2 8 0 2 republican 0 2 4 5 0 total % 4 13 24 8 2 note: (1) as a consequence of “no response” and “don’t know” answers, percentages do not equal 100%. (2) n = 91. source: pennsylvania center for women and politics child care survey 2015. 44 jennie sweet-cushman and ashley harden the state. the legislation also established requirements for teachers to hold degrees in early childhood education, independent program evaluation and reporting, and implementation of an early childhood tax credit (mississippi first n.d.). colorado also extended their childcare assistance eligibility to parents taking unpaid leave from work due to the birth of a child, and in 2014 modified their child care assistance program by capping co-payments for low-income families to no more than 1% of their income. recognizing that some families with income too high to qualify for assistance may also struggle to afford care, the state also established a tiered co-pay structure to offset costs for families with financial need (colorado office of early childhood n.d.). in 2015, california provided supplemental funding to qualifying california state preschool programs on the condition that they provide parenting education and staff development for teachers (california legislative information 2015). and, in nebraska, eligible parents now receive up to 24 consecutive months of child care or until their family income exceeds 185% of the federal poverty level—even after they exceed the standard 140% cut off (national women’s law center 2015b). these examples name just a few ways states have attempted to manage issues around child care in their states. in sum, in the absence of a national childcare program, states have acted in varied ways to attempt to meet the needs of families. while other states have shown leadership on these issues, pennsylvania has lagged behind, and with serious budget issues continuing to be the norm and large-scale acts of bipartisanship rare, child care is not likely to be addressed in any comprehensive way any time soon. notes acknowledgment: this research was supported by research funds granted by the pennsylvania center for women and politics. 1. for center-based care. 2. also based on center-based care statistics. 3. some studies argue that children who don’t obtain quality child care are able to catch up, in the later years, to their peers who do (lipsey et al. 2015). 4. children from birth to four years. 5. the grant was first established in 1990 and was reauthorized in november 2014. 6. amendments made in 1998 to the higher education act of 1965 authorized the childcare access means parents in school program. funding began in 1999. 7. the child and dependent care credit was first created as a deduction in 1954. in 1976 the deduction became a credit. 8. also sometimes called childcare information services, ccis goes back to 1970 and moved into its own office in 1993. 9. in 2013, if a family of three made 100% of the state median income for pennsylvania, it would make $5,500 monthly. at 85% it would make $4,675, and at less than 85% it would make $3,255. is this the care we need? 45 10. at this writing, this budget is still under consideration by the state legislature. the 2015–2016 budget, due to severe revenue shortfall, not only added no additional funding, but required cuts to these programs. as of this writing, it appears another failed attempt at balancing the state budget will mean the same in 2017–2018. 11. pennsylvania pre-k counts was established by act 45 in 2007. 12. the keystone stars program was first piloted in 2002. 13. hofferth (1996) defines the working poor as individuals whose income was less than the poverty line, and she defined working-class individuals as those who had incomes that were above poverty level but less than $25,000. references abbasi, dr. sami m., and dr. kenneth w. hollman. 2000. “turnover: the real bottom line.” public personnel management 29 (september): 333–342. academy for early learning. 2015. “providing childcare.” available at http://www .aelchildcare.org/about-the-academy/providing-childcare. accessed march 23, 2016. administration for 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“about west chester area day care center.” february. available at http://www.wcadaycare.org/about.html. accessed march 23, 2016. white house. 2015. “fact sheet: helping all working families with young children afford child care.” january 21. available at https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press -office/2015/01/21/fact-sheet-helping-all-working-families-young-children-afford -child-care. accessed february 17, 2016. winter, pam. 2010. “engaging families in the early childhood development story.” march. available at http://www.scseec.edu.au/site/defaultsite/filesystem/documents/ reports%20and%20publications/publications/early%20childhood%20education/ engaging%20families%20in%20the%20ecd%20story-neuroscience%20and%20 ecd.pdf. accessed march 24, 2016. 50 jennie sweet-cushman and ashley harden wolf, tom. 2015. “fiscal year 2015–16 executive budget.” march 3. available at http:// www.dhs.state.pa.us/cs/groups/webcontent/documents/document/c_152243.pdf. accessed march 24, 2016. zero to three: national center for infants, toddlers and families. 2014. “developmental milestones from birth to 3.” available at http://www.zerotothree.org/ child-development/early-development/developmental-milestones-from.html? referrer=https://www.google.com/. accessed february 3, 2016. jennie sweet-cushman is an assistant professor of political science and assistant director of the pennsylvania center for women and politics at chatham university. she earned her doctoral degree at wayne state university. her research focuses on women, politics, and public policy, with particular emphasis on political ambition and candidate emergence. ashley harden is a recent graduate of the master of science in counseling psychology program at chatham university. as a graduate student, she worked as a research assistant for the pennsylvania center for women and politics. she is currently an addictions counselor within the allegheny county area. structure bookmarks why child care matters policy: an inadequate patchwork status of care in pennsylvania: challenges public opinion on child care conclusion: addressing inadequacies an introduction to the special issue on education policy an introduction to the special issue on education policy joseph p. mclaughlin, jr. michelle j. atherton special issue editors public education is arguably a state government’s most important function. in pennsylvania, slightly more than one-third of general fund expenditures (35.17%) were dedicated to pre-k–12 education in fy 2014–2015. in 2014, following deep cuts in state aid to public schools, an incumbent governor, tom corbett, was defeated in a bid for re-election, the first time this has happened since the 1968 pa constitution allowed governors to seek a second term. governor tom wolf won, pundits and polls affirmed, on the issue of education funding: the electorate wanted more dollars from the state. according to the franklin and marshall college poll, voters identified education as the most important problem facing pennsylvania from may 2013 through june 2015, only to be supplanted by government and politicians at the end of 2015 and early 2016. after having campaigned on the promise of more education funding from the state, governor wolf engaged in a protracted budget battle with the republican legislature in harrisburg. the disagreement is perhaps not about the exact level of education funding, but how to pay for it. so the promise of more dollars from state coffers for education has led to the longest budget impasse since 1971. this special issue of commonwealth tackles the important policy topic of education on a number of fronts. as is common across the country, pennsylvania’s largest local source of education funding comes in the form of commonwealth, volume 18, issue 1 (june 2016). © 2016 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/cjppp.v18i1.80. all rights reserved. 4 joseph p. mclaughlin, jr., and michelle j. atherton property taxes. david g. argall (a pennsylvania state senator) and jon hopcraft (director of the senate policy committee) contend it is the “worst tax to fund schools.” while it might have made sense in the 1830s when it was first enacted, they argue, it is no longer a fair or equitable way to fund schools. senator argall’s effort to abolish the property tax for schools narrowly failed senate passage in november 2015. economist william a. fischel takes an opposing view, making the case for an efficient link between property values and the quality of schools in a particular district: his so-called “homevoter hypothesis.” those voters without children in the schools, he argues, have a direct financial incentive to raise their own taxes in order to increase or maintain the value of their homes. another common theme in the education debate in pennsylvania is the absence of a predictable and reliable funding formula. it is one of just three states without a formula based on actual student needs and accurate student counts. recognizing this deficiency and public discontent with education funding, the general assembly in 2014 established a bipartisan commission made of key legislators and executive branch officials to recommend a new funding formula. it is not yet clear whether or to what degree the commission’s formula will guide future funding, but its work has generally been well received by education stakeholders, and it was endorsed by the legislature at one stage in budget deliberations in 2015. marguerite roza and amanda warco assess the commission’s work against the standard of a student-based allocation method for pennsylvania districts. in short, roza and warco’s method would require that all funding follow the student, and schools would receive the funds dedicated to that student only after an accurate assessment of need. in another article dealing with a critical education policy issue in pennsylvania and across the country, adam mcglynn looks at the implementation of the keystone exams as a graduation requirement for high school and finds that race, socioeconomic status, and a school’s english language learner and special education populations drive performance. the imposition of a twoyear moratorium on the requirement will provide time for state officials and the legislature to reassess its testing policies. one policy prescription to which mcglynn refers is a predictable funding system according to need. william t. hartman continues the exploration of the role of special education funding through what he calls “a policy of neglect.” his investigation includes enrollment trends in public and charter schools, expenditures, funding from all levels of government, the fiscal impacts on school districts, and the explicit and implicit public policies in pennsylvania surrounding special education funding. an introduction to the special issue on education policy 5 for those looking for further reading on this important topic, meghan e. rubado’s annotated bibliography provides an index to timely and relevant research on the subject of public education, some of which has clearly influenced the course of the policy debate in the commonwealth. this resource includes the themes of public finance, fairness, governance, economic development, testing, and lessons from other nations. raised awareness of fracking in pennsylvania commonwealth, volume 19, issue 1 (2017). © 2017 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/com.v19i1.132. all rights reserved. raised awareness of fracking in pennsylvania philip j. harold robert morris university tony kerzmann robert morris university this article presents survey results from 2013 to 2016 that show an increase in public awareness of fracking in pennsylvania. it suggests that the increased awareness of fracking is due to the expansion of the industry in the commonwealth, lowered gas prices, and increased political discussion following the 2014 gubernatorial race and that it is also part of a national trend. results of a pennsylvania survey and three national surveys show opinions split along gender and partisan lines. increased public awareness of fracking hydraulic fracturing, which the industry refers to as “fracing” and much of the media colloquially refer to as “fracking,” is the process by which shale deposits far below the surface of the earth are stimulated. the stimulation is used to release natural gas that is trapped within the shale deposits. horizontal drilling was demonstrated as a commercially viable technology in the early 1980s and the technology has rapidly progressed ever since. today’s wells can be drilled more than two miles below the earth’s surface and can travel horizontally more than eight miles. the processing, technology, and chemicals used in the horizontal drilling process took a number of years to master until the technology could be considered economically feasible. 34 philip j. harold and tony kerzmann the marcellus shale formation lies underground in west virginia, ohio, and new york, but the largest portion lies in pennsylvania. in recent years drilling of the marcellus shale has seen a storm of activity. in 2010 gas production from this formation was below two billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d), and in 2015 production averaged almost 18 bcf/d (u.s. energy information administration 2016b). a ninefold increase over a five year period is a substantial change and with that change came a lot of publicity, awareness, interest, and scrutiny. in the beginning of the gas boom there were many political, environmental and even economic concerns associated with the drilling and fracking process. the natural gas boom in pennsylvania brought with it many new jobs, a revival of manufacturing in the region, and a new economic stimulus. it also brought about tax and environmental clashes between industry, environmental groups and lawmakers. nevertheless, in 2012 the public had limited knowledge of many aspects of the natural gas production process, including a lack of understanding of fracking, horizontal drilling, fracking water disposal, well casing, gas leaks, pipeline distribution, environmental issues, taxation, land management, land royalties, etc. a national survey conducted by the pew research center found that only 26% of the public indicated that they had heard “a lot” about fracking. the remainder of the sample was split between those who indicated they had heard only “a little” or “nothing at all” (pew research center 2012). the september 2012 national climate change in the american mind survey further confirmed just how much the american public was in the dark concerning fracking (boudet et al. 2014). those results are presented in table 1. in pennsylvania, the muhlenberg college institute of public opinion completed three public opinion polls on fracking (borick, rabe, and lachapelle 2014; brown et al. 2013; borick and rabe 2011). these results are presented in table 2. as can be seen from these polls, the general public’s knowledge about fracking was very low when the gas boom began. there is evidence, however, table 1. national awareness of fracking, 2012 how much have you heard about fracking? heard “a lot” 9% heard “some” 22% heard “a little” 16% have not heard anything at all 39% do not know 13% source: hilary boudet et al., “‘fracking’ controversy and communication: using national survey data to understand public perceptions of hydraulic fracturing,” energy policy 65 (2014): 57–67. raised awareness of fracking in pennsylvania 35 that in recent years something has changed. from 2013 to 2016 robert morris university conducted several national polls to get opinions on hydraulic fracturing. the results from these polls document raised public awareness of fracking over that time period (see table 3). the rmu polls found that the trend in pennsylvania was similar to those around the country. in may 2014, the rmu poll found that 62.0% of pennsylvanians said they were very and somewhat familiar with fracking, while in may 2015, awareness (very and somewhat familiar) increased by 11.7% to 73.7%. this is a substantial jump in awareness over the course of a single year. evidence for raised awareness this decade has also been found in the united kingdom. an october 2014 poll by the u.k. government found that 15% of respondents “know a lot about” fracking, up from 6% in 2011, and 76% have heard of it, up from 42% in 2011 (u.k. department of energy and climate change 2014). reasons for increased public awareness of fracking this increased awareness of fracking should not be surprising, given the expansion of fracking nationwide and in pennsylvania, the political discussion table 2. awareness of fracking in pennsylvania, 2011–2014 october/november april/may october 2011 2012 2014 following the issue of fracking very 48% 59% 49% closely or somewhat closely heard a lot about fracking 46% 37% sources: christopher borick, barry g. rabe, and erick lachapelle, “issues in energy and environmental policy, no. 14: public perceptions of shale gas extraction and hydraulic fracturing in new york and pennsylvania,” national surveys on energy and environment, 2014. erica brown et al., “public opinion on fracking: perspectives from michigan and pennsylvania,” report from the center for local, state, and urban policy, national surveys on energy and environment, 2013. christopher borick and barry g. rabe, “fracking for natural gas: public opinion on state policy options,” report from the center for local, state, and urban policy, november 2011. table 3. national awareness of fracking, 2013–2016 very or somewhat somewhat or completely familiar unfamiliar unsure september/october 2013 45.1% 50.6% 4.3% may 2015 70.7% 26.4% 2.9% february 2016 61.3% 35.0% 3.8% sources: robert morris university polling institute, “national poll report,” november 2013, may 2015, and february 2016. 36 philip j. harold and tony kerzmann that expansion engendered, and the impact of that expansion on gas prices, which has high salience for many people. with the rapid increase in well drilling and the gigantic increase of natural gas supply to the market came a substantial drop in natural gas prices. this not only led to a lowered cost of living for many pennsylvania residents but also strengthened the discussion about national energy independence and contributed to the replacement of coal-f ired electricity production with a cleaner burning natural gas alternative to electricity production. energy independence was a big ticket topic in the 2012 presidential debates and was therefore inherently a driver for increased awareness all over the nation. environmental concerns related to fracking have been a part of the conversation for quite some time, but the widespread replacement of coal for natural gas in electricity production is a recent development. many coalfired power plants that have shut down in recent years have been replaced with natural gas power plants. greenhouse gas emissions from these plants are almost half that of coalfired plants, and the cost of electricity from natural gas is less than coal in many instances (u.s. energy information administration 2016a). the combination of many different elements has led to an increased understanding and awareness of the numerous topics surrounding the fracking industry. the results from a series of polls at the rmu polling institute have confirmed the rise in understanding within the general public. political discussions of fracking in pennsylvania public awareness of the risks of fracking started to become more mainstream after 2010 with the release of the documentary gasland, and its nomination for an academy award (vasi et al. 2015). in january 2013, promised land was released. the film is critical of the gas industry and starred matt damon as a landsman in a small pennsylvania town. political discussions in pennsylvania concerning fracking centered on the governor’s race in 2014. a number of other issues and news stories about fracking came out during this election cycle as well, including the following: • june 2013: the pennsylvania democratic party state committee calls for a moratorium on fracking. • february 2014: a pair of gas wells in greene county were ignited by an explosion, killing one person. • march 2014: a segment airs on the daily show critical of fracking in pennsylvania. • may 2014: governor corbett signs an executive order to allow drilling in state park and forest land. raised awareness of fracking in pennsylvania 37 • june 2014: former state health employees expose how the department failed to respond to complaints about fracking. • july 2014: former state health secretary dr. eli avila said he believed pennsylvania has failed to address public concerns related to natural gas development. • july 2014: the pittsburgh post-gazette reported pennsylvania environmental regulators documented 209 cases where oil and gas operations negatively impacted water supplies since late 2007. • september 2014: the shale gas industry begins a public opinion push, which includes election advertisements, a super bowl commercial, and a campaign against a shale tax. • november 2014: maryland governor martin o’malley proposes strict regulations on fracking. • december 2014: governor andrew m. cuomo’s administration announced that it would ban hydraulic fracturing in new york state. the issue was central to the governor’s race. this election was largely a referendum on the incumbent, and turned out to have a historic result. since 1950 the two political parties in pennsylvania have alternated the governor’s office every eight years, which had been referred to as “the cycle.” the last time an incumbent governor lost was in 1854 (governors were limited to one term from 1874 to 1968), and pennsylvanians had voted against the party of a sitting president in 18 out of the last 19 contests. the 2014 contest broke this historical precedent. however, everyone knew in advance what was going to happen—polls showed incumbent governor tom corbett was the most unpopular governor in the united states (“corbett down double digits to unknown democrats” 2013). us news and world report labeled him “america’s most vulnerable governor,” an rmu poll found favorable impressions of the governor to be 29.4% in february 2014, and 30.8% that may (“america’s most vulnerable governor” 2014). as a result interest in the election was low; for example, an rmu political science professor was scheduled to appear on a panel discussion sponsored by the press club of western pennsylvania, which got cancelled due to lack of interest. the interesting race was the democratic primary, in which a bevy of talented democratic politicians who agreed on almost all the issues vied for attention and the allimportant campaign donations. some candidates (john hanger, jo ellen litz, max myers, ed pawlowski, jack wagner) failed on the latter and dropped out, while those who remained (rob mccord, katie mcginty, allyson schwartz, thomas wolf) tried a little too hard to do so, at least in the case of state treasurer rob mccord, who was caught on tape threatening to use his office to hurt people who refused to contribute to his gubernatorial campaign; 38 philip j. harold and tony kerzmann mccord pled guilty to corruption charges in early 2015. he, mcginty, and the insiders’ favorite, congresswoman allyson schwartz, all failed to keep up with a political newcomer, york businessman tom wolf, who lent his campaign just shy of $10 million and used it to buy air time for slick television ads early in the political cycle, in february 2014, when the stark “deep freeze” weather conditions had everyone in the state inside watching television. the ads had their intended effect—an rmu poll fielded in the middle of february showed wolf with 51.4% support among democrats, a lead that never waivered. wolf won the fourway race in may with 57.8% of the vote. all the democratic candidates supported an extraction tax on natural gas. wolf favored a 5% extraction tax, which during the general election he said would raise $1 billion of revenue a year for the commonwealth. in his television commercials, wolf linked the extraction tax to education funding, the top issue for voters in the election. one ad had wolf in a classroom with children, proclaiming that the solution to the problem of school funding lies “under our feet,” with tax revenue from natural gas. the incumbent governor at that time, tom corbett was largely unpopular because of his stance on education funding. the respondents who had a negative impression of governor corbett in the rmu poll (56.5% in february 2014 and 60.6% in may 2014) were asked in an openended question why they had the impression they did. the responses were coded, and the results show the dominance of the major issue was in education (see table 4). fracking came up second in both polls, however, showing its importance in the negative perceptions of the governor. corbett oversaw a huge boom in natural gas production in pennsylvania in his tenure as governor, as well as the creation of new taxes on the industry. he signed act 13 in february 2012, which created an impact fee, an annual fee for drilling at a well site. a fraction of this tax money went to state agencies, the majority of it to counties and cities impacted by the wells. the impact fee generated hundreds of millions of dollars in new tax revenue for the commonwealth. however, two other provisions of act 13—one that allowed state zoning regulations to trump local regulations, and one that imposed a medical gag order on doctors, preventing them from discussing health risks of fracking—in addition to other actions of corbett, such as his appointment of his chief of staff to head the department of environmental protection, and receiving large amounts of contributions from the gas companies, combined with his refusal to consider a severance tax, gave the perception that the governor was too close to the gas industry and letting them off easy. this was the tenor of the comments about fracking in the openended question. one representative comment was that corbett “cut education funding to the bone while selling the rest of the state to his oil and gas buddies.” by contrast, the survey indicated that corbett did a poor raised awareness of fracking in pennsylvania 39 job selling his support for the industry as a positive feature of his tenure, since of the 29.4% who had a favorable impression of corbett, not a single person mentioned the governor’s support of the oil and gas industry. in the november election, wolf beat corbett 54%45%. at his inauguration in january, eight antifracking protesters disrupted the ceremony. the newly swornin governor proceeded to impose a moratorium on leasing state park and forestland to marcellus shale drillers. in a postelection retrospective survey in december 2014, an rmu poll found that voters found it highly likely that an extraction tax would be imposed, with those who voted republican finding it even more likely than those voting democrat or splitting their ticket (see table 5). gas prices another factor contributing to the awareness of fracking is the retail price of natural gas on the market. gas prices in pennsylvania and nationwide rose sharply in 2007. from september 2004 to june 2008, u.s. residential ng prices rose 29%, while pennsylvania prices rose by 32% (u.s. energy information administration 2016c). this caused economic hardship for residential consumers, exacerbated by the financial crisis. weak economic conditions table 4. reasons for unfavorable impression of gov. tom corbett, 2014 february 2014 may 2014 education 24% 29% fracking 7% 13% jerry sandusky scandal 6% 4% taxes 5% 8% budget 4% 4% economy and jobs 7% 3% personal attributes 6% 11% medicaid expansion 5% 5% sources: robert morris university polling institute, “national poll report,” february 2014 and may 2014. able 5. t ost-election views of the p robability of an p xtraction e ax, 2014t democrat republican ven e plit s didn’t vote (32.7%) (32.9%) (10.7%) (22.5%) a state extraction tax will be 76.5% 88% 77.8% 48.2% imposed on fracking is likely source: robert morris university polling institute, “national poll report,” december 2014. 40 philip j. harold and tony kerzmann following the financial crisis led to lowered demand, which, coupled with increased fracking production, led to a 28% decline in pennsylvania prices by 2013. after such a dramatic change in prices over a relatively short period of time on a key element of household economics, people began to take interest. therefore, it is not surprising that the awareness of fracking grew over the same period of time that fracking contributed to significant reductions in natural gas costs. the importance of this change in gas prices leading to increased awareness of fracking would be consistent with the muhlenberg institute poll of pennsylvania (table 2), which showed a lower level of awareness in the commonwealth as late as april/may 2014. opinions of fracking the rmu polling institute conducted public opinion surveys from 2014 to 2016 for the most part on a quarterly basis. the center for research and public policy (crpp) was contracted to run the polls. polls were conducted online, and included national samples and pennsylvania samples.1 each quarterly poll had four topical areas that were polled within the same survey. respondents did not know the questions in advance of taking the poll, only the broad areas of investigation, and were incentivized by the panel vendor with a $1 credit on amazon.com for taking the poll. every survey was in the field no longer than a week. each national poll included around 1,000 respondents; each pennsylvania poll included around 500 pennsylvania residents. there has been evidence of a nationwide decline in support for fracking. the pew research center, found a drop in support for the “increased use of fracking.” in march 2013, 48% of people favored the increased use of fracking while 38% opposed it. that result reversed itself by september of that year, with 49% of people opposing the increased use of fracking and 44% supporting it, a result that held steady for two polls conducted by pew in 2014—opposition to expanding fracking 51–39 in august and 47–41 in november (pew research center 2015). gallup also conducted two nationwide surveys, one in march 2015, which showed 40% favored and 40% opposed fracking “as a means of increasing the production of natural gas and oil in the us,” while one year later, in 2016, the numbers were 36% favoring fracking and 51% opposing it (gallup 2016). the three nationwide polls conducted by the rmu polling institute on fracking, in october/november 2013, may 2015, and february 2016, showed opposition to fracking creeping upward, with support increasing from 2013 to 2015, and then going down in 2016. results for the statewide breakout of the 2015 poll are included in the right column of table 6, and the phrasing of the question is provided in the appendix. raised awareness of fracking in pennsylvania 41 these polls also asked respondents to indicate their agreement with statements about fracking. interestingly, the results show an increase in favorability from 2013 to 2015 and then a decrease in 2016, where the results were almost the same as in 2013 (see table 7). the rmu poll also asked respondents if they would support fracking in their hometown. notably, nationally from 2013 to 2016, the percentage of respondents saying they are “strongly opposed” to fracking in their hometown went up from 34.7% to 46.5%. the full results are presented in table 8. the 2016 responses to support for fracking were approximately 7% higher than the responses to support of fracking in one’s own hometown, potentially showing a “not in my backyard mentality” for a portion of respondents. generally speaking, the pennsylvania results all track the national results closely, with the exception of less support for fracking in one’s hometown in the may 2015 poll. support for fracking was 55.8% in that poll, compared to table 6. opinions on fracking, nationally and in pennsylvania, 2013–2016 october/ november 2013 may 2015 february 2016 may 2015— pennsylvania strongly or somewhat support fracking 42.3% 55.8% 46.9% 57.1% strongly or somewhat oppose fracking 32.8% 34.5% 39.0% 35.6% sources: robert morris university polling institute, “national poll report,” november 2013, may 2015, and february 2016. table 7. opinions on fracking benefits, nationally and in pennsylvania, 2013–2016 october/ november 2013 strongly and somewhat agree may 2015 strongly and somewhat agree february 2016 strongly and somewhat agree may 2015— pennsylvania strongly and somewhat agree the new drilling technologies that allow fracking will help move the united states to energy independence 57.7% 68.9% 59.8% 69.9% fracking has the potential to help the u.s. economy 63.3% 73.3% 63.9% 74.3% sources: robert morris university polling institute, “national poll report,” november 2013, may 2015, and february 2016. 42 philip j. harold and tony kerzmann table 9. support for fracking by familiarity, nationally and in pennsylvania, 2013–2016 october/november 2013 may 2015 february 2016 may 2015— pennsylvania all very or somewhat familiar (44.5%) all very or somewhat familiar (70.7%) all very or somewhat familiar (61.3%) all very or somewhat familiar (73.7%) strongly or somewhat support fracking 42.3% 54.1% 55.8% 60.2% 46.9% 51.7% 57.1% 60.3% strongly or somewhat oppose fracking 32.8% 38.8% 34.5% 36.0% 39.0% 44.4% 35.6% 37.5% sources: robert morris university polling institute, “national poll report,” november 2013, may 2015, and february 2016. table 8. opinions on fracking in hometown, nationally and in pennsylvania, 2013–2016 october/ november 2013 may 2015 february 2016 pennsylvania— may 2015 strongly or somewhat support fracking in hometown 40% 59.2% 40.2% 48.2% strongly or somewhat oppose fracking in hometown 34.7% 41.7% 46.5% 43.3% sources: robert morris university polling institute, “national poll report,” november 2013, may 2015, and february 2016. the previous and subsequent results of 42.3% and 46.9%. similarly, higher percentages were recorded in the 2015 poll for the questions about fracking helping energy independence and the u.s. economy overall, and supporting fracking in one’s own hometown. the natural gas prices had recently dropped over the years leading up to the 2015 poll, and that could have influenced the positive opinion shift. it is the change in fuel prices, not the price itself, that is associated with changes in public opinion.2 the pew research center found in 2012 that those who indicated that they have heard about fracking supported it to a greater degree: 52% of them favored fracking, while 35% were opposed (pew research center 2012). likewise, our poll showed increased support for fracking among those indicating they were familiar with it (see table 9). opinions form along party lines, with republicans (r) heavily in favor of fracking, and democrats (d) and independents (i) split (see table 10). ta bl e 1 0 . s up po rt f or f ra ck in g by p ar ty i d , n at io na lly a nd i n p en ns yl va ni a, 2 0 1 3 –2 0 1 6 o ct ob er /n ov em be r 2 0 1 3 m ay 2 0 1 5 fe br ua ry 2 0 1 6 m ay 2 0 1 5 — p en ns yl va ni a r (2 5 .3 % ) d (3 0 .6 % ) i (3 8 .4 % ) r (2 5 .4 % ) d (3 1 .1 % ) i (3 6 .4 % ) r (2 8 .8 % ) d (2 9 .9 % ) i (3 3 .0 % ) r (3 1 .4 % ) d (4 6 .1 % ) i (1 2 .7 % ) s tr on gl y or so m ew ha t su pp or t fr ac ki ng 6 3 .9 % 3 5 .6 % 3 7 .3 % 7 6 .1 % 4 8 .4 % 4 8 .8 % 6 3 .1 % 4 7 .2 % 4 3 .% 7 2 .3 % 5 1 .2 % 4 0 .3 % s tr on gl y or so m ew ha t op po se f ra ck in g 1 6 .3 % 4 1 .2 % 3 7 .4 % 1 8 .4 % 4 3 .0 % 4 1 .6 % 2 5 .2 % 4 7 .5 % 4 5 .2 % 2 4 .7 % 4 1 .8 % 4 6 .2 % so ur ce s: r ob er t m or ri s u ni ve rs it y p ol lin g in st it ut e, “ n at io na l p ol l r ep or t,” n ov em be r 2 01 3 , m ay 2 01 5 , an d fe br ua ry 2 01 6 . 44 philip j. harold and tony kerzmann opinions on fracking are also split along gender lines, with men favoring fracking to a greater degree (see table 11). the gender difference is more pronounced in 2013 when familiarity with fracking was less prevalent. women are less familiar with fracking, a result that was found in the united kingdom as well.3 see table 12. conclusion in recent years hydraulic fracturing has become a hot topic for discussion and debate. the united states has seen a widespread transition in energy consumption to the cleaner burning, and in many instances cheaper, natural gas. with the increase in awareness about fracking has come an increase in familiarity of the fracking process. our polling found as high as 70.7% that are “very or somewhat familiar” with fracking. there are numerous contributors to this increased awareness, including the increased publicity of environmental issues and the corresponding debates between industry and environmental groups, debates that boiled over into the political arena, especially in pennsylvania, table 12. familiarity with fracking by gender, nationally and in pennsylvania, 2013–2016 october/november 2013 may 2015 february 2016 may 2015— pennsylvania percent of men very or somewhat familiar 59.1% 75.5% 72.8% 79.3% percent of women very or somewhat familiar 31.0% 65.5% 48.1% 67.6% sources: robert morris university polling institute, “national poll report,” november 2013, may 2015, and february 2016. table 11. support for fracking by gender, nationally and in pennsylvania, 2013–2016 october/november 2013 may 2015 february 2016 may 2015— pennsylvania men (49.9%) women (49.9%) men (51.4%) women (48.3%) men (53.3%) women (46.7%) men (52.2%) women (47.8%) strongly or somewhat support fracking 53.5% 31.4% 62.8% 48.5% 53.6% 39.2% 58.7% 55.3% strongly or somewhat oppose fracking 30.6% 34.8% 29.7% 39.7% 37.6% 40.6% 35.1% 40.0% sources: robert morris university polling institute, “national poll report,” november 2013, may 2015, and february 2016. raised awareness of fracking in pennsylvania 45 and onto the big screen, with gasland and promised land. the national discussion about u.s. energy independence relied heavily on increased natural gas production and played a key role in the publicizing of natural gas as well. finally, the public saw firsthand the economic advantages to fracking when a flood of natural gas hit the market and prices significantly dropped as a consequence. as our polling shows, public familiarity and awareness grew. our polling shows that opinions on fracking in pennsylvania do not deviate from opinions nationally. it also provides some insights on how national respondents view fracking. opinions are divided along party and gender lines, with republicans and men favoring fracking to a greater degree than democrats and women. the overall opposition to fracking has nudged upwards over this period of increasing awareness, as those who “strongly or somewhat oppose fracking” went from 32.8% in 2013, to 34.5% in 2015, and to 39.0% in 2016. a lower retail gas price became normal by 2016, and there were fewer positive responses from 2015 on whether fracking is helping u.s. energy independence (9.1% less), and whether it will help the u.s. economy (9.4%). appendix: text of poll question on fracking awareness and favorability how familiar would you say you are with hydraulic fracturing or more commonly known as “fracing” (pronounced “fracking”)—a process to bring more natural gas to the earth surface for consumer use? very familiar somewhat familiar somewhat unfamiliar not at all familiar unsure/don’t know both energy groups and environmental groups would likely agree on a definition of hydraulic fracturing or “fracing” as pressuring fluids underground through pipes to force open small cracks or fractures, typically less than 1 millimeter in size, in the rock. the sand in the fluids is used to keep the cracks open. chemicals in the fluids help maintain the thickness of the released natural gas. the goal is to force the gas out of the shale rock and up the pipe for consumer use. energy groups suggest hydraulic fracturing or “fracing” will help in many ways, such as by reducing dependence on foreign oils and by lowering energy costs at home by providing another, sometimes less expensive, natural gas resource. environmental groups suggest that “fracing” has the potential for contaminating our water supplies and disrupting the environment. 46 philip j. harold and tony kerzmann based on all that you know or have just learned, would you say you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose “fracing”? strongly support somewhat support somewhat oppose strongly oppose don’t know/unsure notes 1. while telephone polling remains the standard method for public opinion research, we are currently in a period in which internet polling will eventually overtake telephone surveys, just as in the 1970s telephone polling overtook mail and facetoface surveys. polling is cheaper and faster online, and internet polling has come a long way since it began in the 1990s: internet penetration in the united states is now close to 90%, and panel vendors have recruited millions of participants to take polls online, allowing surveys to be sent to a random group, addressing the problem of representativeness that originally existed for optin straw polls. over the past 15 years, online surveys have been performed much more often, and in higher caliber research. see simmons and bobo 2015. 2. for an example of presidential approval, see sides 2012. 3. “interestingly in all of our surveys men are much more likely to identify shale gas than women with the level of recognition in our march 2012 survey being 50.3% for men and 26.4% for women. in january 2014 the figures were 74% and 57.7% respectively” (o’hara et al. 2014). references borick, christopher, barry g. rabe, and erick lachapelle. 2014. “public perceptions of shale gas extraction and hydraulic fracturing in new york and pennsylvania.” issues in energy and environmental policy 14 (september): 1–16. boudet, hilary, christopher clarke, dylan bugden, edward maibach, connie roser renouf, and anthony leiserowitz. 2014. “‘fracking’ controversy and communication: using national survey data to understand public perceptions of hydraulic fracturing.” energy policy 65 (february): 57–67. brown, erica, kristine hartman, christopher borick, barry g. rabe, and thomas ivacko. 2013. “public opinion on fracking: perspectives from michigan and pennsylvania.” issues in energy and environmental policy 3 (may): 1–26. catanese, david. 2014. “america’s most vulnerable governor: unapologetic and undeterred, pennsylvania’s tom corbett faces a daunting path to reelection,” us news and world report, february 25. available at www.usnews.com/news/articles/ 2014/02/25/americasmostvulnerablegovernorunapologeticandundeterred. accessed january 9, 2017. “corbett down double digits to unknown democrats.” 2013. public policy polling, november 26. available at www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/ppp_release_ pa_112613.pdf. accessed january 9, 2017. gallup. 2016. “opposition to fracking mounts in the u.s.” march 30. available at http:// www.gallup.com/poll/190355/oppositionfrackingmounts.aspx. accessed january 9, 2017. raised awareness of fracking in pennsylvania 47 o’hara, sarah, mathew humphrey, rusi jaspal, brigitte nerlich, and wil knight. 2014. “public perception of shale gas extraction in the uk: is the balcombe effect taking hold?” university of nottingham, january 28. pew research center. 2012. “as gas prices pinch, support for oil and gas production grows,” march 19. ———. 2015. “americans, politics and science issues,” july 1. rabe, barry g., and christopher borick. 2011. “fracking for natural gas: public opinion on state policy options.” ann arbor, mi: center for local, state, and urban policy, gerald r. ford school of public policy, university of michigan. robert morris university polling institute. 2013. “national poll report,” november. ———. 2014a. “national poll report,” february. ———. 2014b. “national poll report,” may. ———. 2014c. “national poll report,” december. ———. 2015. “national poll report,” may. ———. 2016. “national poll report,” february. sides, john. 2012. “the political consequences of gas prices.” monkey cage, march 12. available at http://themonkeycage.org/2012/03/thepoliticalconsequencesofgas prices/. accessed january 9, 2017. simmons, alicia d., and lawrence d. bobo. 2015. “can nonfullprobability internet surveys yield useful data? a comparison with fullprobability facetoface surveys in the domain of race and social inequality attitudes.” sociological methodology 45 (august): 357–387. u.k. department of energy and climate change. 2014. “public attitudes tracking survey: wave 11.” u.s. energy information administration. 2016a. “how much carbon dioxide is produced when different fuels are burned.” available at www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/ faq.cfm?id=73&t=11. accessed september 30, 2016. ———. 2016b. “marcellus region drilling productivity report.” september. available at www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/marcellus.pdf. accessed january 9, 2017. ———. 2016c. “u.s. prices of natural gas delivered to residential consumers.” available at www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n3010us3a.htm. accessed september 30, 2016. vasi, ion bogdan, edward t. walker, john s. johnson, and hui fen tan. 2015. “‘no fracking way!’ documentary film, discursive opportunity, and local opposition against hydraulic fracturing in the united states, 2010 to 2013.” american sociological review 80 (october): 934–959. philip j. harold, phd, is a professor of political science, the co-director of the honors program, and the associate dean of the school of education and social sciences at robert morris university in pittsburgh. he was a fulbright scholar in germany in 2010, and he is the author of prophetic politics (2009) from ohio university press. tony kerzmann, phd, is an associate professor of engineering at robert morris university (rmu) and the coordinator for mechanical engineering. he is also the coordinator for rmu’s energy and sustainability minor and has conducted research in concentrating photovoltaic systems, pv system life-cycle assessment, and alternative fueling station location optimization. his research interests include hybrid concentrating photovoltaic systems, life-cycle assessment, sustainable product development, engineering entrepreneurship, alternative energy systems, renewable energy education, and active learning. the 2016 pennsylvania presidential and u.s. senate elections commonwealth, volume 19, issue 2 (2017). © 2017 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/com.v19i2.152. all rights reserved. the 2016 pennsylvania presidential and u.s. senate elections breaking pennsylvania’s electoral habits berwood yost franklin & marshall college jackie redman franklin & marshall college scottie thompson franklin & marshall college this article uses pre-election survey data, post-election survey data, and voter registration and election data to interpret the outcomes of the 2016 presidential and u.s. senate races in pennsylvania. this analysis shows how changes in voter registration and voter turnout in specific areas of the commonwealth, driven in large part by less-educated voters, those dissatisfied with the current direction of the country, and the performance of the incumbent president, explain the 2016 election results. that a republican won the white house in 2016 was not, according to political science forecasters, a breathtaking surprise. the surprise was that donald trump was the republican nominee and that he won not only the white house but also pennsylvania, a state that had supported the democratic presidential candidate in six straight elections. this article uses pre-election survey data, post-election survey data, and voter registration and election data to interpret the outcomes of the 2016 presidential and u.s. senate races in pennsylvania. this analysis shows that significant changes in voter registration and voter turnout in specific areas of the commonwealth, driven in large part by less-educated voters, those dissatisfied with the current direction of the country, and the performance of the incumbent president, explain the 2016 election results. 4 berwood yost, jackie redman, and scottie thompson data sources this article includes data from three primary sources. the pre-election polling data on candidate favorability, candidate preferences, and candidate characteristics come primarily from franklin & marshall college polls conducted during july, august, september, and october 2016. interviewing dates and sample sizes for each survey are as follows: july 29–august 1 (n = 661), august 25–29 (n = 736), september 28–october 2 (n = 813), and october 26–october 30 (n = 863).1 the post-election polling data come from re-interviews with respondents from these four pre-election polls.2 the registered voter samples for these surveys were obtained from l2 and all sampled respondents were notified by letter about the survey. interviews were completed over the phone and online depending on each respondent’s preference. survey results were weighted (by age, gender, region, education, and party registration) using an iterative weighting algorithm to reflect the known distribution of those characteristics as reported by the pennsylvania department of state. the data on polling averages leading up to election day come from the huffington post pollster website. county-level election and registration data come from the pennsylvania department of state. the election results for 2016 were not official at the time the manuscript was being prepared, so final vote totals by county could differ slightly. the presidential race political scientists expected the 2016 race for president to be closely contested because the election fundamentals predicted a tight contest. still, the trump candidacy caused some to wonder if such models would be valid because of his nontraditional candidacy—nontraditional both in the way he campaigned (relying on television advertising less and social media more than traditional candidates) and in the issues he emphasized. some of trump’s signature issues were at odds with traditional republican positions, such as his opposition to free trade agreements, his concerns about nato and foreign intervention, and his desire to undertake massive infrastructure spending. by the end of september, models that relied on the election fundamentals gave clinton a modest advantage, but it was also clear that economic conditions and voter fatigue with democrats were liabilities that had the potential to harm her candidacy (campbell 2016). a great many contemporary newspaper accounts and some scholarship also documented a sizable disaffection among rural, white, non-college-educated voters that had the potential to carry trump to victory despite his personal liabilities.3 the following section documents the candidate ratings, pre-election polling, and election outcomes for the 2016 presidential race in pennsylvania. the 2016 pennsylvania presidential and u.s. senate elections 5 candidate ratings favorability both presidential candidates began the general election campaign as wellknown among voters and with more voters feeling negatively than positively about their candidacies. in july, more than nine in 10 voters were able to offer an opinion about how favorably they viewed both trump (95%) and clinton (96%). donald trump was perceived far more negatively than positively by pennsylvania voters with a minus 29 favorability rating. hillary clinton was also perceived more negatively than positively, but her rating was only minus two. the ratings of both candidates, although fluctuating a bit during the campaigns with the most notable movement taking place around the time of the party conventions, eventually ended at about the same place they started, as table 1 illustrates. one of the unusual features of this election was that a large proportion of voters (16%) had an unfavorable opinion of both candidates.4 in 2012, only 3% of voters in pennsylvania had an unfavorable opinion of both presidential candidates.5 issues and perceived capabilities registered voters, when asked about the reasons they supported their candidate, most often said their candidate was the better option; clinton voters also believed she was more qualified, while trump’s voters preferred him because he was not a typical politician. specifically, in response to the question “what is the main reason you plan to vote for [the candidate]?” clinton’s supporters believed she was the better option (35%), was the more qualified (30%), was more aligned with their political views (17%), or had some desirable personal table 1. favorability ratings of presidential candidates, pennsylvania 2016 candidate month favorable unfavorable net favorable rating aware of candidate donald trump july 0.33 0.62 –0.29 0.95 aug. 0.37 0.58 –0.21 0.95 sept. 0.32 0.60 –0.28 0.92 oct. 0.35 0.62 –0.27 0.97 hillary clinton july 0.47 0.49 –0.02 0.96 aug. 0.38 0.54 –0.16 0.92 sept. 0.47 0.50 –0.03 0.97 oct. 0.46 0.52 –0.06 0.98 source: july, august, september, and october 2016 franklin & marshall college polls. 6 berwood yost, jackie redman, and scottie thompson characteristic (11%). trump’s supporters most often preferred him because they thought he was the better option (30%), because he was not a politician (17%), because his political views better aligned with theirs (16%), and because they believed he could fix the country’s problems (13%). registered voters provided consistent responses throughout the campaign about their reasons for supporting each candidate. registered voters were also relatively consistent in which candidate they believed was better described by a series of statements about their perceived strengths. secretary clinton had a clear advantage in having sufficient experience to be president and in her ability to handle foreign policy, as figure 1 shows. clinton and trump were rated similarly, however, in the ability to encourage change and to fix the economy. figure 1. percentage of respondents who believe trump or clinton is best described by each statement, by month of survey. poll question: “regardless of how you plan to vote, which of these presidential candidates do you think is best described by each of the following statements?” (franklin & marshall college polls.) the 2016 pennsylvania presidential and u.s. senate elections 7 pre-election polling poll averages the average of polls conducted in pennsylvania suggested that hillary clinton led donald trump throughout the entire fall campaign. her monthly average lead was four points in july, eight points in august, five points in september, seven points in october, and three points in november.6 only rarely did individual polls show either candidate with support from a majority of voters; the averages in the final week showed clinton’s expected vote share at 47% and trump’s expected vote share at 44%. the monthly polling averages showed a sizable number of undecided and other voters that, given the tightening of the race over the final weeks, suggested movement toward trump. the undecided and third-party candidates totaled nearly 20 points in july, 19 in august and september, 14 in october, and 11 in november. the rate of undecided and third party voters was much higher in 2016 than in 2012. polls released in the final month of the 2012 campaign found only 5% of voters were undecided or planning to vote for a third-party candidate.7 figure 2 shows the results of figure 2. pennsylvania 2016 presidential polling results, july–november 2016. (compiled and created by the authors using data downloaded from huffpost pollster, december 6, 2016.) 8 berwood yost, jackie redman, and scottie thompson pre-election polls conducted during the fall campaign. clinton’s share of the vote appeared to be increasing during the course of the fall campaign at the same time the margin between the two candidates converged in november. support within demographic subgroups much of the media narrative during the 2016 election had to do with sizable differences in the votes of white and nonwhite voters and the votes of collegeeducated and non-college-educated voters. these differences were apparent in pennsylvania. besides his expected support among conservatives and republicans, donald trump’s strongest support throughout the campaign came from white, non-college-graduates. in addition, there were geographic differences likely reflecting some cultural or social features amplified by this demographic support within specific areas of the state. notably, pre-election polls showed trump performing strongly in western pennsylvania outside of pittsburgh. figure 3 presents the demographic support for the candidates during the fall campaign. figure 3. clinton advantage or disadvantage in percentage points among demographic subgroups, by month of survey. (franklin & marshall college polls.) the 2016 pennsylvania presidential and u.s. senate elections 9 election results donald trump won a narrow and to many a surprising victory over hillary clinton in pennsylvania, 48.6% to 47.9%. trump’s triumph came from having a significant advantage among late-deciding voters. nearly all (97%) of the respondents who planned to vote for trump in franklin & marshall’s preelection polls and who made their final decision in the last week of the campaign did vote for him, while only three in four (74%) who planned to vote for clinton and made their final decision in the last week of the campaign voted for her.8 the other sizable advantage for trump came from voters who were undecided in our pre-election polls: trump had a sizable advantage whether these undecided voters decided in the final week or earlier.9 table 2 shows the composition of presidential voters preand post-election in pennsylvania. most voters had consistent preferences preand post-election. trump had two major advantages: more voters who supported clinton pre-election moved away from her than moved away from him, and more voters who preferred neither candidate prior to the election voted for trump than for clinton. post-election survey results: regression analysis a logistic regression was performed to determine the effects of demographic characteristics (gender, age, education, race, marital status, employment, union membership, and veteran status), political characteristics (partisan affiliation and political ideology), and attitudinal characteristics (obama job performance, expected future financial condition, and direction of the country) on the likelihood that respondents voted for donald trump for president. the logistic regression model was statistically significant, χ2(23) = 1456.02, p < .0001. the model explained 82.3% (nagelkerke r2) of the variance in presidential vote choice and correctly classified 92% of cases. model sensitivity was 89.1% and model specificity was 92.6%. table 3 provides the logistic regression coefficients and confidence intervals for the variables in the model. table 2. change in voter preferences preand post-election as proportion of all voters, pennsylvania 2016 pre-election preference post-election preference clinton trump neither clinton 43.5% 0.6% 0.2% trump — 41.5% 0.2% neither 4.2% 6.7% 3.3% source: july, august, september, and october 2016 franklin & marshall college polls. 10 berwood yost, jackie redman, and scottie thompson republicans were more likely to vote for trump than were democrats, and conservatives were more likely to vote for trump than were liberals. moderates were also less likely than conservatives to vote for trump. educational attainment also predicted vote choice: those with a high school degree or less and those who attended some college were more likely to vote for trump than were college graduates. those who believed the united states is on the wrong track were more likely to vote for trump, and those who believed obama was doing a poor job as president were more likely to vote for trump. table 3. logistic regression model for trump preference, pennsylvania 2016 dependent variable: probability voting for trump party independent 0.134 (–0.566, 0.834) party republican 1.616*** (1.116, 2.116) male 0.300 (–0.162, 0.761) over 55 –0.239 (–0.830, 0.351) under 35 –0.624 (–1.490, 0.243) white 0.479 (–0.507, 1.466) high school or less 1.238*** (0.654, 1.822) some college 0.877*** (0.363, 1.391) liberal –1.758*** (–2.460, –1.057) moderate –0.760*** (–1.218, –0.301) urban county –0.193 (–0.702, 0.317) not married 0.299 (–0.291, 0.890) single, never married 0.336 (–0.361, 1.032) not retired or employed –0.375 (–0.968, 0.218) retired 0.300 (–0.262, 0.863) united states on wrong track 1.120*** (0.515, 1.726) obama poor job 3.597*** (2.951, 4.244) obama excellent job –1.520** (–3.009, –0.031) obama fair job 1.804*** (1.220, 2.388) better finances next year 0.402 (–0.150, 0.955) worse finances next year 0.074 (–0.568, 0.716) labor union household –0.169 (–0.715, 0.377) veteran –0.278 (–0.877, 0.321) constant –3.797*** (–5.203, –2.392) observations 1,556 log likelihood –314.399 akaike inf. crit. 676.798 note: *p < 0.1; **p < 0.05; ***p < 0.01 source: july, august, september, and october 2016 franklin & marshall college polls. the 2016 pennsylvania presidential and u.s. senate elections 11 comparison with 2012 by county there were strong and consequential regional differences in the presidential election results in pennsylvania. hillary clinton outperformed barack obama’s vote totals in nonrural counties by 18,789 votes, but underperformed his vote totals by 82,606 votes in the state’s rural counties. these stark differences in voter preference are evident regionally. clinton outperformed obama by 52,258 votes in the southeast and by 14,930 votes in allegheny county, but underperformed his vote in all other parts of the state: central (34,419), northwest (34,072), northeast (29,351), southwest (28,382), and philadelphia (4,781). only 11 of the state’s 67 counties yielded more votes for the democratic presidential candidate in 2016 than 2012. figure 4 presents the county-level changes in support for the democratic presidential candidate in pennsylvania between 2012 and 2016. the counties in figure 4 are colorcoded by geographic region.10 figure 4. change in county presidential votes, pennsylvania, 2012 and 2016. counties are color-coded by geographic region. (compiled and created by the authors using data downloaded from the pennsylvania department of state website, january 24, 2017.) 12 berwood yost, jackie redman, and scottie thompson the u.s. senate race incumbent senator pat toomey was considered one of the most vulnerable senate republican incumbents in the 2016 election cycle. although toomey had significant crossover appeal, there was a belief that a strong clinton victory in the state would be too much for him to overcome. during the campaign, toomey emphasized his ability to work with democrats and cited his efforts to close loopholes in gun background checks as proof. toomey’s challenger, katie mcginty, touted her working-class roots and ran as a traditional democrat while wholeheartedly embracing hillary clinton’s candidacy. toomey, on the other hand, seemed deeply concerned that his party’s candidate might harm his chances of re-election. toomey never endorsed trump and he would not say whether he intended to vote for trump until he admitted voting for the candidate one hour prior to the polls closing on election night (stolberg 2016). because of toomey’s perceived vulnerabilities, money from both sides poured into pennsylvania and the pennsylvania senate race became the most expensive in the 2016 cycle; spending in the race was nearly $125 million.11 the following section documents the candidate ratings, pre-election polling, and election outcomes for the 2016 u.s. senate race in pennsylvania. candidate ratings favorability neither u.s. senate candidate began the general election with high name recognition and incumbent senator pat toomey had clear disadvantages in his personal popularity and job performance ratings as the fall campaign began. in july, fewer than two in three voters were able to offer an opinion about how favorably they viewed toomey (63%) and only one in two (50%) were able to offer an opinion about mcginty. by the end of the campaign more than three in four (77%) voters were able to offer an opinion about both candidates. senator toomey was perceived far more negatively than his challenger throughout the campaign; he had a net favorability rating of minus 17 by the end of october compared to mcginty’s net favorability of plus one.12 mirroring the course of the presidential campaign, the ratings of both senate candidates eventually ended at about the same place they started, as table 4 illustrates. more of a concern for toomey than his lack of personal popularity was that only one in three (29%) voters believed he was doing an “excellent” or “good” job as u.s. senator by late october. the 2016 pennsylvania presidential and u.s. senate elections 13 pre-election polling poll averages the polling averages in the u.s. senate race in pennsylvania showed a relatively tight race throughout the fall until there was some late movement toward mcginty as election day approached. the polling averages suggested the race was tied in july, but that mcginty’s lead increased to about three points in august, slipped to one point in september and october, and then rose to three points in november.13 only rarely did individual polls show either candidate with support from a majority of voters; the averages in the final week showed mcginty’s expected vote share at 47% and toomey’s expected vote share at 44%. the estimated vote share in the senate race mirrored the presidential vote shares precisely, suggesting there would be a strong relationship between the presidential and senate votes. another key feature of this race was the large proportion of undecided and third-party voters reported throughout the campaign. undecided and third-party voters totaled 21 points in august, 24 points in september, 15 points in october, and 13 points in november. figure 5 shows the results of pre-election polls conducted during the fall campaign. as with clinton, mcginty’s share of the vote appeared to be increasing during the course of the fall campaign although, unlike the presidential race, the margin between the two candidates appeared to be expanding in november. support within demographic subgroups pat toomey’s performance in pre-election polling among demographic subgroups was similar to trump’s. he did well as expected among conservatives table 4. favorability ratings of u.s. senate candidates, pennsylvania 2016 candidate month favorable unfavorable net favorable rating aware of candidate katie mcginty july 0.25 0.25 0.00 0.50 aug. 0.28 0.29 –0.01 0.57 sept. 0.33 0.33 0.00 0.66 oct. 0.39 0.38 0.01 0.77 pat toomey july 0.23 0.40 –0.17 0.63 aug. 0.29 0.37 –0.08 0.66 sept. 0.30 0.39 –0.09 0.69 oct. 0.30 0.47 –0.17 0.77 source: july, august, september, and october 2016 franklin & marshall college polls. 14 berwood yost, jackie redman, and scottie thompson and republicans and his pattern of support geographically was also similar. figure 6 presents the demographic support for the candidates during the fall campaign. election results pat toomey won a narrow victory over katie mcginty in pennsylvania, 48.8% to 47.3%. table 5 shows the composition of u.s. senate voters preand postelection in pennsylvania. most voters had consistent preferences preand post-election. more voters who preferred neither candidate prior to the election voted for toomey than mcginty. post-election survey results: regression analysis a logistic regression was performed to determine the effects of demographic characteristics (gender, age, education, race, marital status, employment, union membership, and veteran status), political characteristics (partisan figure 5. pennsylvania 2016 u.s. senate polling results, july–november 2016. (compiled and created by the authors using data downloaded from huffpost pollster, december 6, 2016.) the 2016 pennsylvania presidential and u.s. senate elections 15 figure 6. mcginty advantage or disadvantage in percentage points among demographic subgroups, by month of survey. (franklin & marshall college polls.) table 5. change in voter preferences preand post-election as proportion of all voters, pennsylvania 2016 pre-election preference post-election preference mcginty toomey neither mcginty 38.4% 1.4% 0.2% toomey 1.1% 36.3% 0.8% neither 8.5% 10.3% 3.0% source: july, august, september, and october 2016 franklin & marshall college polls. affiliation and political ideology), and attitudinal characteristics (obama job performance, expected future financial condition, and direction of the country) on the likelihood that respondents voted for pat toomey for u.s. senate. the logistic regression model was statistically significant, χ2(23) = 1458.47, p < .0001. the model explained 81.7% (nagelkerke r2) of the variance in u.s. 16 berwood yost, jackie redman, and scottie thompson senate vote choice and correctly classified 91% of cases. model sensitivity was 89.3% and model specificity was 93%. table 6 provides the logistic regression coefficients and confidence intervals for the variables in the model. republicans and independents were more likely to vote for toomey than democrats. conservatives were more likely to vote for toomey than were liberals or moderates. those who believe the united states is on the wrong track were more likely to vote for toomey, and those who believed obama was table 6. logistic regression model for toomey vote share, pennsylvania 2016 dependent variable: probability voting for toomey party independent 0.658** (0.046, 1.269) party republican 1.799*** (1.343, 2.255) male –0.077 (–0.516, 0.362) over 55 –0.385 (–0.968, 0.198) under 35 –0.185 (–1.033, 0.663) white 0.492 (–0.410, 1.394) high school or less –0.212 (–0.755, 0.332) some college 0.091 (–0.410, 0.593) liberal –3.069*** (–3.751, –2.387) moderate –1.228*** (–1.696, –0.760) urban county 0.109 (–0.398, 0.616) not married –0.171 (–0.739, 0.397) single, never married –0.405 (–1.078, 0.268) not retired or employed –0.930*** (–1.507, –0.354) retired –0.207 (–0.762, 0.347) united states on wrong track 1.076*** (0.546, 1.606) obama poor job 2.314*** (1.720, 2.908) obama excellent job –1.655*** (–2.743, –0.568) obama fair job 1.495*** (0.958, 2.032) better finances next year 0.347 (–0.174, 0.868) worse finances next year 0.121 (–0.544, 0.787) labor union household –0.531** (–1.052, –0.010) veteran –0.414 (–1.001, 0.173) constant –1.310** (–2.580, –0.040) observations 1,556 log likelihood –333.978 akaike inf. crit. 715.956 note: *p < 0.1; **p < 0.05; ***p < 0.01 source: july, august, september, and october 2016 franklin & marshall college polls. the 2016 pennsylvania presidential and u.s. senate elections 17 doing a poor job as president were more likely to vote for toomey. labor union households were less likely than nonunion households to vote for toomey. comparison with 2012 by county as in the presidential race, the change in support for the democratic candidate at the county level was substantial. mcginty received fewer votes than senator bob casey received in 2012 in all but five pennsylvania counties. mcginty received significantly fewer votes than casey in lackawanna and luzerne counties in the northeastern part of the state and from western counties, including beaver, cambria, erie, washington, and westmoreland. regionally, mcginty underperformed bob casey by 5,009 votes in allegheny county, by 43,107 votes in central pennsylvania, by 62,708 votes in western pennsylvania, and by 12,077 votes in philadelphia and the southeast. figure 7 displays the differences in the democratic u.s. senate voting by county between 2012 and 2016. figure 7. change in county u.s. senate votes, pennsylvania, 2012 and 2016. counties are color-coded by geographic region. (compiled and created by the authors using data downloaded from the pennsylvania department of state website, january 24, 2017.) 18 berwood yost, jackie redman, and scottie thompson split-ticket voting increased partisanship has produced less split-ticket voting in recent elections (beck et al.1992), but donald trump’s nontraditional positions on key issues raised the possibility that split-ticket voting might be more common in 2016. post-election survey data show that among those who cast a vote for both president and senate, one in 10 (9%) split their tickets.14 a splitticket voter is defined as a voter who voted for trump for president but not toomey for senator, or as a voter who voted for toomey for senate but not trump for president. figure 8 displays the geography of split-ticket voting in pennsylvania for the 2016 election. voters in southeastern pennsylvania cast more votes for senator toomey than president trump, while many more voters in western and northeastern pennsylvania voted for president trump.15 figure 8. difference in county presidential and u.s. senate votes, pennsylvania, 2016. counties are color-coded by geographic region. (compiled and created by the authors using data downloaded from the pennsylvania department of state website, january 24, 2017.) the 2016 pennsylvania presidential and u.s. senate elections 19 table 7 presents the regional variation evident in the vote differences between the republican presidential and senate candidates in 2012 and 2016 and demonstrates a likely increase in republican ticket splitting. in 2012, mitt romney’s vote totals exceeded senate candidate tom smith’s in every region of the state, with a difference between the two candidates of about 146,000 votes, which was about 5% of the votes cast for romney. in 2016, toomey actually outperformed trump in allegheny county, philadelphia, and in the southeast. the absolute difference in votes cast for the two candidates was about 182,000 votes or about 6% of the presidential vote total. in raw votes, romney outperformed trump in allegheny county and the southeast, while toomey outperformed smith in all parts of the state. these differences hint at the slightly different coalitions assembled by the two candidates; these differences are discussed in the next section. table 7. regional vote totals for republican presidential candidates in pennsylvania, 2012 and 2016 region total vote for president 2016 registered voters 2016 trump votes toomey votes turnout trump minus toomey votes allegheny 650,114 920,346 259,480 261,316 70.6% (1,836) central 1,600,415 2,267,666 979,503 957,106 70.6% 22,397 northeast 723,607 1,066,205 378,653 352,135 67.9% 26,518 northwest 515,001 743,183 324,435 307,329 69.3% 17,106 philadelphia 707,631 1,082,240 108,748 116,714 65.4% (7,966) southeast 1,345,460 1,788,298 553,906 625,499 75.2% (71,593) southwest 573,218 791,562 366,039 331,672 72.4% 34,367 region total vote for president 2012 registered voters 2012 romney votes smith votes turnout romney minus smith votes allegheny 634,608 916,470 262,039 236,546 69.2% 25,493 central 1,491,431 2,167,498 860,579 820,589 68.8% 39,990 northeast 665,181 1,038,882 305,170 282,261 64.0% 22,909 northwest 496,141 722,563 275,170 266,370 68.7% 8,800 philadelphia 690,724 1,055,319 96,467 84,461 65.5% 12,006 southeast 1,274,517 1,712,173 566,653 534,492 74.4% 32,161 southwest 543,385 801,859 314,356 284,413 67.8% 29,943 source: pennsylvania department of state, available at http://www.dos.pa.gov/pages/default.aspx. calculations by the authors. 20 berwood yost, jackie redman, and scottie thompson regression analysis: split-ticket voting a logistic regression was performed to determine the effects of demographic characteristics (gender, age, education, race, marital status, employment, union membership, and veteran status), political characteristics (partisan affiliation and political ideology), and attitudinal characteristics (obama job performance, expected future financial condition, and direction of the country) on the likelihood that respondents split their tickets between the republican presidential and senate candidates. the logistic regression model was statistically significant, χ2(23) = 139.2, p < .0001. the model explained 18.5% (nagelkerke r2) of the variance in split-ticket voting and correctly classified 90.6% of cases. model specificity was 90.6%. table 8 provides the logistic regression coefficients for the model. independent voters were more likely than republicans or democrats to split their tickets. moderates were more likely and liberals less likely than conservatives to split their tickets. those who rated obama’s job performance as excellent were less likely to split their tickets, and those who rated obama’s job performance as fair were more likely to do so. voter turnout high voter turnout was a determinative factor in the presidential and senate races. more than seven in 10 (70.6%) registered voters cast a ballot in the presidential election in 2016, which was higher as a proportion of registered voters than either 2008 or 2012. table 7 earlier showed the changes in regional voter turnout between 2012 and 2016. that table showed increased turnout in every region of the state except philadelphia and that turnout in the northeast (3.8%) and southwest (4.7%) showed the largest comparative change. table 9 shows the regional changes in voter registration from 2012 to 2016. since 2012, republican registration increased markedly in western and central pennsylvania. the patterns of voter turnout were remarkable and are apparent in figure 9. figure 9 plots the turnout among registered voters in relation to republican performance relative to republican registration in each county. the upperright-hand quadrant of figure 9 (turnout above the state average of 71% on the x-axis and republican performance that exceeded republican registration, a ratio of 1.0 on the y-axis) shows that the republican victory was made possible primarily by a surge in republican performance in western pennsylvania. the central pennsylvania counties, the traditional republican “t,” underperformed relative to registration. given the relatively high turnout in the 2016 pennsylvania presidential and u.s. senate elections 21 southeastern pennsylvania, these overperforming counties coupled with low turnout in philadelphia and centre counties, made the difference for both trump and toomey. the changes in turnout and in the democratic share of the presidential vote between 2012 and 2016 display the county-level dynamics underlying the election. table 10 shows the changes in turnout and democratic vote share for table 8. logistic regression model for ticket splitting, pennsylvania 2016 dependent variable: probability of splitting ticket for republican candidates party independent 0.839*** (0.258, 1.419) party republican 0.290 (–0.215, 0.795) male –0.253 (–0.653, 0.146) over 55 –0.207 (–0.717, 0.303) under 35 0.265 (–0.443, 0.973) white 0.644 (–0.438, 1.725) high school or less –0.417 (–0.942, 0.107) some college –0.306 (–0.761, 0.150) liberal –1.097*** (–1.838, –0.355) moderate 0.394* (–0.058, 0.846) urban county 0.101 (–0.359, 0.561) not married 0.017 (–0.518, 0.551) single, never married 0.046 (–0.535, 0.628) not retired or employed –0.061 (–0.574, 0.453) retired 0.101 (–0.394, 0.597) united states on wrong track 0.064 (–0.470, 0.598) obama poor job –0.450 (–1.090, 0.190) obama excellent job –1.946*** (–3.006, –0.887) obama fair job 0.683** (0.118, 1.249) better finances next year –0.018 (–0.486, 0.449) worse finances next year 0.131 (–0.447, 0.708) labor union household –0.371 (–0.892, 0.149) veteran 0.425 (–0.095, 0.946) constant –2.642*** (–4.011, –1.273) observations 1,556 log likelihood –414.800 akaike inf. crit. 877.600 note: *p < 0.1; **p < 0.05; ***p < 0.01 source: july, august, september, and october 2016 franklin & marshall college polls. table 9. changes in voter registration between 2012 and 2016 by region, pennsylvania region dem 2016 rep 2016 dem 2012 rep 2012 dem change rep change % dem change % rep change allegheny 538,103 258,946 553,099 249,086 (14,996) 9,860 –2.7% 4.0% central 808,739 1,128,228 803,384 1,063,054 5,355 65,174 0.7% 6.1% northeast 520,439 384,266 531,068 357,499 (10,629) 26,767 –2.0% 7.5% northwest 308,086 341,818 325,078 314,900 (16,992) 26,918 –5.2% 8.5% philadelphia 839,165 123,307 824,130 129,720 15,035 (6,413) 1.8% –4.9% southeast 788,803 726,612 740,803 717,744 48,000 8,868 6.5% 1.2% southwest 385,344 319,258 436,961 282,865 (51,617) 36,393 –11.8% 12.9% totals 4,188,679 3,282,435 4,214,523 3,114,868 (25,844) 167,567 –0.6% 5.4% source: pennsylvania department of state, available at http://www.dos.pa.gov/pages/default.aspx. calculations by the authors. figure 9. registered voter turnout and republican presidential performance by county, pennsylvania, 2016. counties are color-coded by geographic region. (compiled and created by the authors using data downloaded from the pennsylvania department of state website, january 24, 2017.) the 2016 pennsylvania presidential and u.s. senate elections 23 five counties, three with above-average turnout and above-average republican performance and two with below-average turnout and below-average republican performance. turnout was markedly higher in the three western pennsylvania counties included in the table, while the share of votes won by hillary clinton declined substantially in these counties compared to barack obama. in the two counties expected to favor clinton, turnout actually declined in both and clinton’s share of the vote compared to obama’s decreased in one of them. this dynamic perfectly captures what happened in pennsylvania in 2016: counties with more working-class voters turned out in greater numbers and gave less support to democratic candidates than in previous elections, while areas that should have been supportive of democrats had lower turnout and offered little change in support. discussion this analysis shows that significant changes in voter registration and voter turnout in specific areas of the commonwealth, driven in large part by lesseducated voters, those dissatisfied with the current direction of the country, and the performance of the incumbent president, best explain the 2016 election results in pennsylvania. trump overcame his pre-election polling deficit for two major reasons: more voters who supported clinton pre-election moved away from her than moved away from him, and more voters who preferred neither candidate prior to the election voted for trump rather than for clinton. the high number of undecided and third-party voters throughout the campaign should have been a warning that such movement was possible, particularly in light of common electoral models that highlighted clinton’s many potential vulnerabilities. table 10. turnout and democratic vote share for selected pennsylvania counties, 2012 and 2016 county region clinton % turnout 2016 obama % turnout 2012 beaver southwest 38.9% 73.8% 45.3% 71.3% cambria southwest 29.9% 73.0% 40.1% 69.9% centre central 48.7% 62.8% 48.5% 65.3% philadelphia philadelphia 82.5% 65.4% 85.2% 65.5% westmoreland southwest 32.8% 74.1% 37.4% 71.9% source: pennsylvania department of state, available at http://www.dos.pa.gov/pages/default.aspx. calculations by the authors. 24 berwood yost, jackie redman, and scottie thompson the foundational importance of trump’s working-class supporters manifested itself by shifting traditional voting patterns in the state. educational attainment predicted vote choice: those with a high school degree or less and those who attended some college were more likely to vote for trump than were college graduates. the desire for change was also clear in the election results: those who believed the united states is on the wrong track were more likely to vote for trump, and those who believed obama was doing a poor job as president were more likely to vote for trump. taken together, these factors led to strong and consequential regional differences in the presidential election results in pennsylvania compared to prior elections. only 11 of the state’s 67 counties yielded more votes for the democratic presidential candidate in 2016 than 2012. as in the presidential race, the change in support for the democratic senate candidate between 2012 and 2016 at the county level was substantial. mcginty received fewer votes than senator bob casey received in 2012 in all but five pennsylvania counties. toomey voters were similar to trump voters in their desire for change: those who believed the united states is on the wrong track were more likely to vote for toomey as were those who believed obama was doing a poor job as president. but toomey had a slightly different coalition than trump. there were no educational differences among toomey supporters, he attracted fewer independents than trump, and union members were also less likely to support him. his support was more conservative and traditionally republican than was trump’s, although there can be little doubt that the surge in republican turnout driven by trump’s candidacy made the difference for toomey. high voter turnout was a determinative factor in the presidential and senate races. more than seven in 10 (70.6%) registered voters cast a ballot in the presidential election in 2016, which was higher as a proportion of registered voters than either 2008 or 2012. since 2012, republican registration increased markedly in western and central pennsylvania. the republican victory was made possible primarily by that surge in republican performance in western pennsylvania. this dynamic perfectly captures what happened in pennsylvania in 2016: counties with more working-class voters turned out in greater numbers and gave less support to democratic candidates than in previous elections, while areas that should have been supportive of democrats had lower turnout and offered little change in their support for democratic candidates. trump’s victory in pennsylvania scrambles what has been the state’s traditional electoral habits and raises significant and important political questions about future state elections. the main questions include the durability the 2016 pennsylvania presidential and u.s. senate elections 25 of trump’s electoral coalition, his ability to transfer his voters’ energy to other republican candidates in future elections, and the calculus that other elected and aspiring republicans make in embracing his nontraditional positions. the answers to these questions will make clear the battle lines for future state races, beginning with the 2018 gubernatorial race. notes 1. most of the interviewing for the october survey (625 of the 863 interviews) was conducted prior to the fbi’s statement about secretary clinton’s emails on october 28. 2. the center for opinion research at franklin & marshall college completed postelection interviews with 2,287 of the 3,077 individuals (74%) who had participated in our july, august, september, and october 2016 pre-election polls. the post-election interviews were completed over the telephone (n = 1,202) or using a self-administered online (n = 974) or paper and pencil (n = 111) format. post-election interviews were completed from november 16, 2016 to january 13, 2017. the response rates for the post-election survey by month of pre-election interview were as follows: july (n = 487/661) = 74%, august (n = 541/736) = 73%, september (n = 602/813) = 74%, and october (n = 657/863) = 76%. the post-election survey did not verify whether respondents actually voted, so it is possible that some of those interviewed did not vote. 3. an excellent scholarly description of these voters is cramer 2016. examples of contemporary news accounts of these voters included seib and o’connor, “republicans rode waves of populism until they crashed the party.” wall street journal, october 26, 2016; bob davis and gary fields, “the great unraveling,” wall street journal, september 15, 2016; and keith o’brien, “uprising in the rust belt,” politico magazine, june 24, 2016. 4. this estimate is confirmed by the 2016 pennsylvania exit poll estimate: edison research exit polls showed 17% of pennsylvania voters had an unfavorable opinion of both candidates. the exit polling showed that these voters broke for trump 56% to 31%. 5 these ratings are from the october 2012 franklin & marshall college poll. the poll showed that mitt romney’s net favorability rating was minus four and barack obama’s net favorability was plus four. 6. huffpost pollster 2016a. 7. authors calculation from data compiled: yost and borick 2013. 8. although the survey asked voters in our post-election interviews when they decided they would vote for their candidate, it did not specifically ask about the effect on their choice of the fbi director’s october 28 statement about reopening the investigation into secretary clinton’s email server. 9. during the campaign, many speculated that there was a “hidden” trump vote. it is possible that those who made their decision in october or before while claiming to be undecided were, in fact, hiding their support for trump. 10. the regional breakdowns used in this article are those used by the franklin & marshall college poll. for the counties included in each region, see https://www.fandm .edu/fandmpoll/survey-releases. 11. data were provided by opensecrets.org, accessed january 29, 2017. 12. in the 2012 senate race, republican tom smith’s net favorability was even, although only about half (54%) of voters recognized him, and bob casey’s net favorability was plus five, according to the october 2012 franklin & marshall college poll (https:// www.fandm.edu/fandmpoll/survey-releases). 26 berwood yost, jackie redman, and scottie thompson 13. huffpost pollster 2016b. 14. the proportion of voters who cast a vote for both parties in this election cycle would likely be much higher had i included all the different races on the ballot. for instance, democratic candidates won all of the state’s row offices in november, with more than 50% of ballots cast. 15. although there were sizable differences in votes cast, there was a significant correlation in vote share. the correlation in county-level vote share for toomey and trump is r(65) = 0.95, p < .001. references beck, paul allen, lawrence baum, aage r. clausen, and charles e. smith, jr. 1992. “patterns and sources of ticket splitting in subpresidential voting.” american political science review 86 (december): 916–928. campbell, james e. 2016. “seeing the forest for the trees: presidential election forecasts and the fundamentals.” sabato’s crystal ball 14 (september 22). available at http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/seeing-the-forest-for-the-trees -presidential-election-forecasts-and-the-fundamentals/. accessed september 23, 2016. center for opinion research. 2012. “october 2012 franklin & marshall college poll— statewide.” available at https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/427891958633141665 -keyoct12-1.pdf. accessed january 27, 2017. cramer, katherine. 2016. the politics of resentment: rural consciousness in wisconsin and the rise of scott walker. chicago: university of chicago press. huffpost pollster. 2016a. “2016 pennsylvania president: trump vs. clinton.” available at http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-pennsylvania-president-trump-vs -clinton. accessed december 6, 2016. ———. 2016b. “2016 pennsylvania senate: toomey vs. mcginty.” available at http://elec tions.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-pennsylvania-senate-toomey-vs-mcginty. accessed december 6, 2016. o’brien, keith. 2016. “uprising in the rust belt.” politico magazine, june 24. stolberg, sheryl gay. 2016. “patrick toomey wins re-election in pennsylvania senate race.” new york times, november 9. yost, berwood, and christopher borick. 2013. “polling accuracy in pennsylvania: the 2012 presidential election.” presented at the annual meeting of the pennsylvania political science association, harrisburg. berwood yost is the director of the center for opinion research and the floyd institute for public policy at franklin & marshall college. he is also the head methodologist for the franklin & marshall college poll. jackie redman is a project manager at the center for opinion research at franklin & marshall college. scottie thompson is a project and data specialist at the center for opinion research at franklin & marshall college. structure bookmarks data sources the presidential race the u.s. senate race split-ticket voting voter turnout discussion wind development in pennsylvania commonwealth, volume 19, issue 1 (2017). © 2017 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/com.v19i1.134. all rights reserved. wind development in pennsylvania a reflection on state policy sarah banas mills university of michigan while other states have continued to add wind turbines in recent years, there has been no new wind development in pennsylvania since 2012. this article considers how state energy policy as well as local land-u se policies related to wind energy compare with other states as a way to understand how these policies may be impacting wind development in the keystone state, especially in light of the geographical characteristics of the state’s highest quality winds. background in the past decade, the united states has seen exponential growth in the percentage of electricity that comes from renewable sources. in much of the country, this has meant a large surge in onshore wind energy projects. pennsylvania is no exception to this trend. in 2000, the state boasted just 10mw of installed wind capacity—a single wind farm of eight turbines in somerset county. by 2009, the state’s total had risen to 748mw, a growth rate six times that of the united states as a whole (u.s. department of energy 2016a). installed capacity in pennsylvania ticked up again in 2012, when six new wind farms came online, bringing the total installed capacity to 1,340mw. since then, however, while other states have added more than 14,000 mw of wind energy, wind development in pennsylvania has flatlined (see figure 1). 70 sarah banas mills this article does not attempt to identify a single cause for the stalling of wind development in the commonwealth. indeed, as previous analyses have shown, a multitude of factors affect the deployment of wind energy within a particular state (bohn and lant 2009; fischlein et al. 2014). however, this article aims to identify how pennsylvania’s policies related to wind energy compare with other states, as a means of identifying possible factors hindering wind energy development. in particular, i first consider how specific provisions in the state’s renewable energy standard compare nationally. i then discuss pennsylvania’s decentralized regulatory regime for landuse decisions effecting the siting of turbines compared with policies that make siting decisions at the state level. i conclude by discussing how the geographical characteristics of the state’s highest wind energy potential may warrant reconsidering these policies. renewable energy policy at the state level, the most common policy for encouraging utilities to shift to renewable technologies has been the renewable portfolio standard (rps). in general terms, this policy tool requires electric utilities operating within a state to increase the proportion of electricity that comes from renewable sources by a set deadline. currently 29 states plus the district of columbia have a compulsory rps in place, while eight more states have voluntary standards or renewable energy goals (national conference of state legislatures 2016). the specifics, however, vary from place to place, with respect to not only the overall required 1,600 80,000 70,000 )) (m w 1,400 (m w 60,000    yy 1,200 tti ci ac 1,000 50,000 a apc ca p    dd inin 800 40,000 ww  600 30,000   edll lle d aa 400 tt ss 20,000 n ini   pa   200 10,000 u .s . 0 0 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 calendar year pennsylvania u.s. figure 1. cumulative installed wind capacity in pennsylvania compared to the united states, 2000–2015. (u.s. department of energy, “installed wind capacity,” windexchange, 2016, available at http://apps2.eere.energy.gov/wind/windexchange/wind_installed_capacity.asp, accessed june 10, 2016.) wind development in pennsylvania 71 proportion of energy that must come from renewable sources and the deadline for meeting the goal but also which technologies are considered “renewable.” pennsylvania is in the majority of states, having passed a compulsory rps entitled the alternative energy portfolio standards act of 2004. on its face, the law’s 18% mandate by 2021 is in the middle of the pack compared both nationally and to its neighbors. pennsylvania’s rps is not nearly as aggressive as neighboring new york’s 50% by 2030 standards, but is higher than the 10% by 2015 standards of both michigan and wisconsin (see table 1). table 1. state renewable portfolio standards, sorted by required percentage of renewable energy state goal nonrenewable alternatives allowed hawaii 100% x 2045 vermont 75% x 2032 oregon 50% x 2040 california 50% x 2030 new york 50% x 2030 maine 40% x 2017 rhode island 38.5% x 2035 colorado 30% x 2020 yes connecticut 27% x 2020 minnesota 26.5% x 2025 delaware 25% x 2026 illinois 25% x 2026 ohio 25% x 2026 yes nevada 25% x 2025 new hampshire 24.8% x 2025 new jersey 20.38% x 2021 maryland 20% x 2022 new mexico 20% x 2020 pennsylvania 18% x 2021 yes arizona 15% x 2025 missouri 15% x 2021 massachusetts 15% x 2020 washington 15% x 2020 montana 15% x 2015 north carolina 12.5% x 2021 michigan 10% x 2015 yes wisconsin 10% x 2015 iowa 105mw texas 5,880mw x 2015 sources: database of state incentives for renewables and efficiency, renewable portfolio standards, raleigh, north carolina state university, 2016. lawrence berkeley national laboratory, national conference of state legislatures. 72 sarah banas mills however, like only three other states, pennsylvania’s rps allows nonrenewable alternatives to count toward the total. allowing these alternatives does not, in itself, reduce the deployment of wind or other renewable energy technologies. michigan’s rps, for example, counts energy generated by municipal solid waste—a nonrenewable—toward the goal, but the 2015 standard was met nearly exclusively through adding additional wind and solar energy (talberg, quackenbush, and saari 2016). however, distinct from michigan and colorado, which treat select nonrenewables as one of many technologies that may be used to meet the requirement, pennsylvania has a twotier system with separate goals for each tier. the first tier, which includes traditional renewable technologies, including wind energy, must make up just 8% of the electricity generated in the state by 2021. by contrast, the second tier must account for 10% of the state’s generation mix by 2021 and must come from a separate list of technologies most of which are nonrenewables: waste coal, distributed generation systems, demandside management, largescale hydropower, municipal solid waste, and integrated combined coal gasification. as a result, among states with an rps, pennsylvania has the lowest standard strictly for renewable energy. this comparatively low renewables mandate does not necessarily mean that pennsylvania will lag other states in wind development. indeed, iowa has long surpassed its modest 105mw renewables mandate; it currently boasts 6,365mw of installed wind capacity (u.s. department of energy 2016a). even so, while there has been significant study and debate about how much the national increase in wind energy development can be attributed to rps policies (menz and vachon 2006; shrimali, lynes, and indvik 2015; staid and guikema 2013), most energy analysts believe that a shift toward renewables would slow in the absence of robust rps policies (u.s. department of energy 2015). land-use regulation state energy policies such as the rps are not the only regulations that may impact wind development in a particular state. given the size of modern utilityscale turbines—commonly 400 to 500 feet from turbinetip to ground—it should not be surprising that, like other large structures in the built environment, wind projects are also subject to landuse regulation. most often, this regulation is aimed at ensuring that turbines are safely sited in case of a catastrophic failure (e.g., loss of a turbine blade) or shedding of ice, as well as to minimize the noise and visual impacts to neighboring landowners. such regulations usually take the form of minimum setback distances from roads, wind development in pennsylvania 73 property lines, or inhabited structures and requirements for vegetative screening to reduce both noise and shadow flicker (andriano 2009). while land-u se regulations are applied to nearly every utilityscale energy facility, they can be particularly onerous on wind developments, given the geographic scale required for economic viability. while a traditional power plant might be sited on a single parcel of perhaps a couple thousand acres, modern wind farms often spread over hundreds of parcels and tens of thousands of acres, increasing the likelihood that they would extend beyond the confines of a local municipality. when turbinesiting rules are set at the municipality level, developers on a single wind project may need to comply with landuse regulations of multiple jurisdictions, a situation that is less common for other energy infrastructure. as a result, it is not uncommon for states, when enacting an rps, to also establish that all landuse regulation associated with wind facilities will happen at the state level (heibel 2016). centralizing landuse regulation not only simplifies planning for these large footprint wind projects but also frees wind developers to identify project sites where they can maximize energy output— and subsequently minimize the cost of electricity—rather than factoring in whether obstructionist local regulations will delay approval. theoretically this should allow for the most efficient allocation of energy infrastructure within the state, based on energy potential rather than local politics, helping to minimize the cost of the renewable mandate. indeed, after a decadelong experiment with locallevel energy siting, in 2011 new york reinstated state level control for landuse regulation of large (over 25mw) wind facilities to allow the state to stay on track to meet its aggressive rps (kass et al. 2011; wind energy law blog 2011). by contrast, in pennsylvania, wind turbine siting is regulated by each of the state’s 2,500+ local governments. while the state, in collaboration with electric utilities, developed a model wind zoning ordinance as guidance (pennsylvania department of environmental protection 2006), localities are welcome to adopt alternate regulations. this local control of wind siting is relatively common in states that have a tradition of home rule, and in particular where there is no statelevel utility siting board (rynne et al. 2011). further, this is the regulatory model in texas, the nation’s top wind energy producing state. the rationale for local siting is that it affords communities the power to set standards for wind projects so that any wind development helps meet the landuse goals of that community. while this may lead to restrictive local standards that effectively block (i.e., “zone out”) wind development in communities with high wind potential (devinewright 2011), it also provides opportunities for lesswindy localities 74 sarah banas mills keen on accepting wind development to entice wind developers by enacting comparatively lax regulation (rynne et al. 2011). which of these scenarios is more likely to play out in any state, though, largely depends on the geography of a state’s viable wind resources, and how the land is currently used in those locations. geography and public acceptance while the literature on community acceptance of wind energy is still growing, there have been some studies on factors that influence an individual’s attitude toward wind development. in particular, individuals’ attachment to the landscape has been shown in number studies to increase their opposition to wind energy (jacquet 2012; otto and leibenath 2014; park and selman 2011). by contrast, landowners who value their land more for its utility (e.g., as a working landscape) and less for its scenic value are more likely to support wind energy (van der horst 2007; veelen and haggett 2016). the logical extension is that when a state’s windiest places are also valued for their scenery—such as vacation destinations, recreational areas, or suburbanizing communities on the urban fringe—local communities are more likely to oppose wind development. by contrast, when the state has viable wind resources in working landscapes—such as farmland, ranchland, or mining areas—local communities are more likely to support wind development, largely for the economic benefits it brings to individual landowners and local governments (kahn 2013). pennsylvania’s best wind resources are concentrated in three areas: in erie county in the extreme northwest of the state, following the ridgeline of the allegheny mountains through the central part of the state, and along scattered ridges in the northeast corner (u.s. department of energy 2016b). to date, pennsylvania’s wind development has been exclusively in the alleghenies and mountains of northeastern pennsylvania, largely in areas with a history of energy extraction and distant from large population centers. while there are still undoubtedly viable sites along more remote ridgelines (particularly in the western alleghenies), most of the untapped wind potential lies in areas closer to recreational or residential communities. and these sites are being met with fierce opposition both in the lehigh valley (radzievich 2016) as well as in erie county (myers 2015), where projects have been cancelled due to restrictive local ordinances or public opposition. as mentioned previously, though, local control also provides an opportunity for communities in lesswindy locations to attract wind development to their community. however, this works only where there are ample locations with viable wind speeds. pennsylvania, in comparison to states to its north wind development in pennsylvania 75 and west, has relatively modest wind resources (u.s. department of energy 2016b), with the best secondtier wind resources in the state available in isolated pockets in the counties along the northern border with new york state, and in lancaster and york counties in the southeast. and there does appear to be at least some interest in wind energy in both of these regions. a township in potter county in north-c entral pennsylvania has cited communitylevel economic benefits of wind development—specifically payments by the wind developer to the township government—in its review of a proposed wind farm (davis 2016). meanwhile, farther south, in lancaster county, the frey farm landfill currently operates two utilityscale wind turbines. there might also be opportunities to discuss how wind energy might complement this region’s long-s tanding goals of preserving farmland (mulvaney, woodson, and prokopy 2013; union of concerned scientists 2003), but there is little evidence that such discussions are underway. absent a greater push for wind development in these locations, the prospects for substantial future wind development in pennsylvania under its current landuse regime are likely limited. conclusion taken in isolation, nothing about pennsylvania’s energy or landuse policies would explain why the state has seen a fouryear drought of wind development while the nation as a whole has increased its wind capacity 24% in this time. the state does have a policy in place mandating an increase in renewable energy, and the state’s policy to delegate landuse authority for wind development to local units is not uncommon. however, given the state’s relatively modest wind potential and the geographic location of the state’s best wind resources in areas that may be predisposed to oppose wind development, without changes to state policy, it is likely that wind development will be limited in the state. strengthening the state’s rps to either exclude nonrenewable alternative energy sources or increase the percentage that must come from renewables would put pennsylvania on par with the mandates set by other states, but it might also increase the price of electricity if utility companies are unable to find communities willing to accept wind development. altering landuse regulation to give the state more power to overrule local governments that wish to completely block wind development would help to overcome this problem, but it would likely be a difficult sell in a state that so values local landuse control. shifts to state policy, though, may not be the only ways to increase the deployment of wind energy in the state. increased governmental or nongovernmental, proactive outreach (to communities with more modest wind 76 sarah banas mills potential that may be predisposed to support local wind development for its attendant local economic benefits) may lead to local landuse regulations that favor wind development and help entice wind developers to these communities. additionally, technological advances in wind energy technology may increase the number of communities across the state where utilityscale wind turbines can be viably sited. as a result, there is no reason to believe that wind development in pennsylvania has hit its peak; it just may need a nudge to break from its current plateau. references andriano, jennifer r. 2009. “the power of wind: current legal issues in siting for wind power.” planning and environmental law 61 (5): 3–13. bohn, christiane, and christopher lant. 2009. “welcoming the wind? determinants of wind power development among u.s. states.” professional geographer 61 (1): 87–100. davis, alex. 2016. “wind turbines being planned for potter county.” bradford era. available at www.bradfordera.com/news/windturbinesbeingplannedforpottercounty/ article_28418aaa-02b8-11e6-aaf6-a31ac9a04d3c.html. accessed october 1, 2016. devinewright, patrick. 2011. renewable energy and the public: from nimby to participation. london: earthscan. fischlein, miriam, andrea m. feldpauschparker, tarla r. peterson, jennie c. stephens, and elizabeth j. wilson. 2014. “which way does the wind blow? analysing the state context for renewable energy deployment in the united states.” environmental policy and governance 24 (may/june): 169–187. heibel, jesse, and jocelyn durkay. 2016. “state legislative approaches to wind energy facility siting.” national conference of state legislatures. november 1. available at www.ncsl.org/research/energy/state-wind-energy-siting.aspx#statutes. accessed november 10, 2016. jacquet, jeffrey b. 2012. “landowner attitudes toward natural gas and wind farm development in northern pennsylvania.” energy policy 50 (november): 677–688. available at http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/s0301421512006702. accessed november 27, 2013. kahn, matthew e. 2013. “local nonmarket quality of life dynamics in new wind farms communities.” energy policy 59 (august): 800–807. available at http://linking hub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/s0301421513002875. accessed june 28, 2013. kass, stephen l., christine a. fazio, ethan i. strell, and victor j. gallo. 2011. “new york legislature passes article x bill for siting of major electric generating facilities.” client advisory, june 24. available at www.clm.com/publication.cfm?id=337. accessed december 10, 2016. menz, fredric c., and stephan vachon. 2006. “the effectiveness of different policy regimes for promoting wind power: experiences from the states.” energy policy 34 (september): 1786–1796. available at http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/ s0301421505000091. accessed june 28, 2013. mulvaney, kate k., patrick woodson, and linda stalker prokopy. 2013. “a tale of three counties: understanding wind development in the rural midwestern united wind development in pennsylvania 77 states.” energy policy 56 (may): 322–330. available at http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/ retrieve/pii/s0301421512011317. accessed november 13, 2013. myers, valerie. 2015. “plans for wind farm in north east shelved.” goerie.com, january 20. available at www.goerie.com/article/20150120/news02/301199911. accessed october 1, 2016. national conference of state legislature. 2016. “state renewable portfolio standards and goals.” available at www.ncsl.org/research/energy/renewableportfoliostandards .aspx. accessed july 10, 2016. otto, antje, and markus leibenath. 2014. “the interrelation between collective identities and place concepts in local wind energy conflicts.” local environment 19 (6): 660–676. available at http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13549839.2013 .868871. accessed july 15, 2014. park, jung jin, and paul selman. 2011. “attitudes toward rural landscape change in england.” environment and behavior 43 (march): 182–206. available at http://eab .sagepub.com/cgi/doi/10.1177/0013916509355123. accessed march 14, 2012. pennsylvania department of environmental protection. 2006. model wind ordinance for local governments. harrisburg. available at www.pawindenergynow.org/pa/ model_wind_ordinance_final_3_21_06.pdf. accessed october 1, 2016. radzievich, nicole. 2016. “hurling ‘boos,’ hundreds oppose wind farm on bethlehem’s watershed at zoning hearing.” morning call, june 24. available at www.mcall.com/ news/local/bethlehem/mc-bethlehem-turbine-hearing-continues-20160624-story .html. accessed october 1, 2016. rynne, suzanne, larry flowers, eric lantz, and erica heller. 2011. planning for wind energy. chicago: american planning association. shrimali, gireesh, melissa lynes, and joe indvik. 2015. “wind energy deployment in the u.s.: an empirical analysis of the role of federal and state policies.” renewable and sustainable energy reviews 43 (march): 796–806. available at www.sciencedirect .com/science/article/pii/s1364032114010193. accessed october 1, 2016. staid, andrea, and seth d. guikema. 2013. “statistical analysis of installed wind capacity in the united states.” energy policy 60 (september): 378–385. available at http:// linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/s030142151300428x. accessed november 20, 2013. talberg, sally a., john d. quackenbush, and norman j. saari. 2016. report on the implementation of the p.a. 295 renewable energy standard and the costeffectiveness of the energy standards. lansing, mi: department of licensing and regulatory affairs, michigan public service commission. available at www.michigan.gov/ documents/mpsc/pa_295_renewable_energy_report_2–12–16_514511_7 .pdf?20160212112723%29. accessed october 1, 2016. union of concerned scientists. 2003. farming the wind: wind power and agriculture. available at http://www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy/smartenergy-s olutions/increase -renewables/farming-the-wind-wind-power.html#.wg4cymczwm8. accessed january 5, 2017. u.s. department of energy. 2015. wind vision. a new era for wind power in the united states. washington, dc: u.s. department of energy. ———. 2016a. “installed wind capacity.” windexchange. available at http://apps2.eere .energy.gov/wind/windexchange/wind_installed_capacity.asp. accessed june 10, 2016. 78 sarah banas mills ———. 2016b. “potential wind capacity.” windexchange. available at http://apps2.eere .energy.gov/wind/windexchange/windmaps/resource_potential.asp. accessed december 10, 2016. van der horst, dan. 2007. “nimby or not? exploring the relevance of location and the politics of voiced opinions in renewable energy siting controversies.” energy policy 35 (may): 2705–2714. available at http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/ s0301421506004848. accessed april 24, 2012. van veelen, bregje, and claire haggett. 2016. “uncommon ground: the role of different place attachments in explaining community renewable energy projects.” sociologia ruralis. doi:10.1111/soru.12128. wind energy law blog. 2011. “new york streamlines power plant siting—boon to renewable energy.” available at http://windpowerlaw.info/2011/06/30/newyorkstreamlines -power-plant-siting-boon-to-renewable-energy. accessed december 10, 2016. sarah banas mills, phd, is a postdoctoral research fellow at the center for local, state, and urban policy (closup), housed in the gerald r. ford school of public policy at the university of michigan. she serves as project manager for the center’s survey programs, including the national surveys on energy and environment (nsee); teaches classes on energy and environmental policy; and is continuing her own research on the impacts of wind energy on rural communities. her recent work has been published in state and local government review. commonwealth matters commonwealth, volume 18, issue 2 (2016). © 2016 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/cjppp.v18i2.111. all rights reserved. commonwealth matters j. wesley leckrone editor-in-chief the pennsylvania political science association and the pennsylvania policy forum envisioned a journal that combined traditional scholarly work on policy and academic commentary on current events when they partnered with temple university press to publish a revamped commonwealth. our first issue featured academics and practitioners examining problems related to education policy in pennsylvania. volume 18:2 is the first general issue featuring a range of political and policy topics in the commonwealth. michele moser deegan and a. lanethea mathews schultz examine medicaid expansion in pennsylvania with a focus on regional inequalities in access to services. they draw on successful models from other states and provide potential solutions to problems in the commonwealth. paula holoviak and thomas baldino explore the politics of policymaking by examining governor tom wolf ’s first year in office. their analysis compares wolf to governors over the course of the last half century and offers some lessons to help future governors navigate the start of their administration. the next two articles address the implications of recent statewide elections in pennsylvania. john kennedy places the state’s 2016 presidential primary in historical context and shows how the relevance of pennsylvania affected voter turnout across the commonwealth. jenna becker kane examines the november 2015 state supreme court elections that transformed the composition of 2 j. wesley leckrone pennsylvania’s highest court. her comparative analysis shows that spending in the pennsylvania races was in line with recent elections in other states. finally, kathleen rogers provides a research note exploring the role of women in the pennsylvania legislature. in addition to statistics comparing female representation in the commonwealth to other states, she provides rich qualitative data from interviews with several women who have served in the general assembly. looking ahead to next year, chris borick of muhlenberg college is serving as the special editor of an issue examining environmental and energy issues in pennsylvania that will be published in midjanuary. general issues of commonwealth will follow in june and october. temple university press is providing issues 18:1 and 18:2 of commonwealth to the public for free at https://tupjournals.temple.edu/index.php/ commonwealth/index. beginning in 2017, a subscription will be necessary to view future issues of the journal. current members of the pennsylvania political science association will receive access as part of their annual dues. non ppsa members can purchase a subscription for $30 per year and institutions for $90. please encourage your library to subscribe to commonwealth by sharing the form at the back of the issue. book 1.indb commonwealth forum should pennsylvania abolish the property tax for schools? in november 2015, the pennsylvania senate narrowly failed to pass legislation abolishing the local school property tax and replacing it with state revenues raised by higher income and sales tax rates and the extension of the sales tax to a range of goods and services now exempt. the legislation, supported by dozens of citizen tax reform groups across pennsylvania, was defeated 25–24 when lieutenant governor michael stack cast a tie-breaking vote against an amendment embodying the changes. state senators david argall and judith schwank were principal sponsors of the legislation and vowed to continue the fight. indeed, legislation to replace, reform, and reduce the property tax, particularly for schools, has been proposed and debated for decades, and some relief measures have been enacted, but the tax remains the principal levy to fund schools in pennsylvania and in most states. citizens in pennsylvania and nationally consistently tell pollsters that it is the worst tax, and few if any elected officials will defend the levy, except on the pragmatic grounds that replacing it would require unrealistically large increases in state taxes. commonwealth invited senator argall, chair of the senate republican policy committee, and jon hopcraft, the committee’s executive director, to summarize the argument that the tax is an antiquated and unfair levy and should be abolished. we invited dartmouth college economist william a. fischel, a nationally recognized expert who attended pennsylvania public schools, to summarize his argument that, compared to statewide taxes, the local levy provides voters—even in households without schoolchildren—with stronger incentives to support highquality public schools. tax policy 2 yes, abolish the property tax: it is the worst tax for schools david g. argall jon hopcraft at the start of his career in 1890 at columbia university, edwin seligman deemed the property tax “the worst tax known in the civilized world” (brunori et al. 2006). one hundred twenty-six years later, seligman’s declaration would be met with raucous applause at town hall meetings across much of pennsylvania. the property tax is one of the oldest taxes in history—athens levied a land tax in 596 bc (jennings 2015). in 1982, former pennsylvania senate majority leader john stauffer hypothesized that the first complaint about real estate taxes was likely submitted in athens in 596 bc. article iii, §14 of the pennsylvania constitution requires, “the general assembly shall provide for the maintenance and support of a thorough and efficient system of public education to serve the needs of the commonwealth.” we would challenge anyone today to argue that pennsylvania’s current school property tax system actually promotes a “thorough and efficient system of public education.” think what has changed in pennsylvania education since the first school property tax was enacted in the 1830s: teachers are no longer paid partly in vegetables, our children no longer learn in one-room schoolhouses, teachers are much better educated, and students have moved from chalk and slate to textbooks and computers, but taxpayers still pay for public education through an outmoded, archaic, and unfair property tax. today, pennsylvania school districts receive most of their funding from local property taxes with the state and federal governments contributing approximately 45 percent. again, let us quote the late senator stauffer, who served in the pennsylvania general assembly from 1965 to 1988 and summed it up best: “although [the property tax’s] use has become nearly universal, it is the most unfair, fastest-rising and most capricious tax. property tax assessments and reassessments have become bywords for political manipulation.” according to the input we have received at countless town hall meetings, the situation has not improved since senator stauffer’s unsuccessful efforts to reform the school property tax system in the 1980s. this debate has gone on for decades in the pennsylvania general assembly, with the key question being “what is the best way to fund our public schools?” in 1953, governor john fine enacted the state sales and use tax at 1 percent. while this tripled state aid for education, it failed to kill off school 3 property taxes (phmc 2015a). in 1971, governor milton shapp won a longfought battle with the legislature and created the state income tax at 2.3 percent, dubbed the “emergency income tax.” shapp increased aid to public schools and also signed a bill into law creating the pennsylvania state lottery with the intent to provide property tax relief to senior citizens (phmc 2015b), but it failed to kill off the school property tax. in 2004, governor ed rendell legalized casino gaming with a portion of the revenue dedicated toward property tax relief, but the hated school property tax continued to grow. in 2006, the approval of act 1 tied allowable school property tax increases to inflation for the first time. the exemptions in act 1, however, have allowed school districts to raise property taxes above the act 1 index. in 2014, the state granted exceptions to 164 public schools across the commonwealth to raise their property taxes above the act 1 index (frantz 2014). since 2008, nearly one-third of the state’s five hundred public school districts annually received exceptions from the state to raise taxes above the act 1 limit (welton 2015). the pattern over the last six decades is clear—any temporary tax becomes permanent and any tax relief effort is temporary. because of the state government’s inability to prevent school property taxes from rising each year, the calls to eliminate—not reform—this hated tax continue to grow louder each year. why do people across pennsylvania hate the school property tax? here’s one major reason: from 1993–1994 to 2012–2013, while the average annual regional consumer price index increased approximately 2.5 percent, the annual average school district property tax increased by nearly double the inflation rate at 4.9 percent. in other words, over that period, as figure 3.1 indicates, the consumer price index cumulatively increased by 61 percent while the school property tax increased by 146 percent (independent fiscal office 2013). the annual increases to school property taxes continue to outpace any other economic indicator despite act 1 limitations. this is why so many people show up at town hall meetings across pennsylvania to demand the elimination of school property taxes. tweaking this hated tax or reforming this unfair and archaic system is not what people are requesting. they are demanding its complete elimination. article viii, §1 of the pennsylvania constitution requires, “all taxes shall be uniform, upon the same class of subjects, within the territorial limits of the authority levying the tax, and shall be levied and collected under general laws.” the subjective nature of the school property tax flies in the face of the uniformity clause. today, property owners are subject to higher property taxes based on a variety of outmoded factors, including when the property was purchased, upgrades to the interior and/or exterior of a dwelling, reverse appeals, additions to the dwelling, changes to the productive use of the land, among sev4 eral others factors. cherry-picking homeowners based on the sale of or upgrades to the property not only discourages individuals from purchasing property in certain school districts but also removes any incentive to improve properties because of the threat of future tax increases. the school district property tax is, at best, only remotely tied to an individual’s ability to pay. is this really how we want to fund the education of pennsylvania’s students in the twenty-first century? the only way to eliminate the unfairness of the school property tax system is to kill it off once and for all. the plan to eliminate school property taxes in pennsylvania was first developed and drafted by more than seventy grassroots taxpayer advocacy groups from across the state, known as the pennsylvania coalition of taxpayer associations. the coalition brought us a plan that would eliminate— not reduce—school property taxes in pennsylvania by shifting to an increased personal income tax (increasing the rate from 3.07 percent to 4.95 percent) and an increased and expanded sales and use tax (increasing the rate from 6 percent to 7 percent and broadening the tax base). each year, school districts would receive a cost of living adjustment tied to the statewide average weekly wage. the plan would also allow school districts to raise additional revenue through a local personal income tax or earned income tax increase contingent on voter approval. to put that in perspective, thirty-four other states require school districts to receive voter approval to levy or increase the local tax rate (paul 2015). opponents frequently argue that income and sales taxes are too volatile for school funding. they usually fail to mention, however, that pennsylvania’s overall state budget receives over 70 percent of its revenue from the personal income tax and sales and use tax. why should we require school 3.00 146% growth 61% growth school property tax collections regional cpi 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00g ro w th in de x w ith 1 99 3– 19 94 v al ue s a t 1 .0 19 93 –19 94 19 95 –19 96 19 97 –19 98 19 99 –20 00 20 01 –20 02 20 03 –20 04 20 05 –20 06 20 07 –20 08 20 09 –20 10 20 11 –20 12 figure 3.1 historic trends in school property tax collections and regional consumer price index. (data source: independent fiscal office 2013.) 5 districts to depend on hated and unfair property taxes when the state has long since decided that the sales and income taxes are much fairer and more appropriate taxes to meet our needs? the plan created by the pennsylvania coalition of taxpayer associations is a shift from an unfair, archaic school property tax to a hybrid income and sales tax–based approach. when pennsylvania voters are asked, they agree with this concept. here’s a sampling of the polling data: harper polling determined that pennsylvanians believe that the property tax is the worst tax in pennsylvania (50 percent)—eclipsing the combined dislike of income (27 percent) and sales (14 percent) taxes (harper polling 2015). local tax reform continues to be a key priority statewide, narrowly trailing education funding as the top issue for pennsylvania voters (klinger 2015). during a telephone town hall event on october 6, 2015, with berks and schuylkill county residents, participants overwhelmingly supported elimination (81 percent) over reduction (11 percent) and caps on future growth (8 percent). kqv radio in pittsburgh in april of 2012 found that 85 percent of their listeners support a plan to eliminate school property taxes; the york dispatch in may of 2012 asked a similar question, with 73 percent support of complete elimination; the easton express times surveyed readers in march of 2015 asking about supporting a state budget deal or school property tax elimination, with 84 percent supporting the latter. figure 3.2 inside view of the pennsylvania state capitol rotunda. (source: photo by bestbudbrian, courtesy of wikimedia commons.) 6 this proposal, senate bill 76 and house bill 76, would change our archaic school property system to one more in line with what taxpayers can afford to pay. property owners would no longer bear the primary burden of funding public schools. utilization of the income and sales tax will broaden the tax base, creating fairness and uniformity in taxation. urban areas with population out-migration would no longer be tied to an eroding tax base for future revenue needs. instead, more than 12.7 million pennsylvanians plus tourists and other visitors would contribute to the state’s public education system. after a comprehensive review, the pennsylvania independent fiscal office determined that eliminating school property taxes would provide the largest relative tax cut to retired homeowners and increase disposable income for homeowners (independent fiscal office 2012). seniors and homeowners of all ages continue to be the strongest advocates for this legislation. when the plan was first introduced in the state senate in 2011, it garnered the support of roughly one-quarter of the senators. after considerable grassroots lobbying across pennsylvania, the number of senate cosponsors has doubled. the plan was reintroduced in 2013 by fourteen republicans and eleven democrats, and again in 2015 with one-half of the senate cosponsoring the measure. on november 23, 2015, the senate debated this proposal for the first time in history. the result was a 24–24 tie vote, which was then defeated by the lieutenant governor’s vote against the measure. how can we finally resolve this decades-long debate and eliminate our archaic school property tax system? we are now meeting with the proponents and opponents of the measure to find ways to improve the bill. every day, we are searching for that one additional vote that we need to secure passage in the senate and send it to the house for its consideration. we now face a unique window of opportunity in harrisburg. franklin and marshall college professor g. terry madonna and consultant michael young believe that this issue could unite—not further divide—state government leaders during this era of extraordinary partisanship in harrisburg. in an often quoted column titled “rip: the school property tax,” madonna and young (2015) wrote: pennsylvania’s property tax, like property taxes in many other states, is a fossilized artifact from the 19th century that faltered badly in the 20th century and failed spectacularly into the 21st century. . . . now in the 21st century, talking about “reforming” the 19th century property tax really is just rearranging the deck chairs on the titanic long after the iceberg has been hit. the property tax cannot be reformed— but it can be abolished. . . . both sides really want the same thing here—a sane tax system in support of a stable revenue source for schools. realizing that comity of interest is half the journey. getting 7 rid of the property tax means wolf wins, the gop wins—and most important of all, the long-suffering taxpayers of pennsylvania win. homeownership has been the bedrock of the american dream, but how can one achieve true homeownership when you are merely renting it from a school district? eliminating the 1830s school property tax system and replacing it with a broader, fairer, and more equitable system will not only remove one of the biggest hurdles to achieving the american dream; it will finally bring pennsylvania’s public education financing system into the twenty-first century. if you do not believe us, come with us to our next town hall meeting. the constituents of the 29th senatorial district would love to share their thoughts with you on this issue. references brunori, david, richard green, michael bell, chanyung choi, and bing yuan. 2006. “the property tax: its role and significance in funding state and local government services.” george washington institute of public policy working paper 27. available at https:// gwipp .gwu .edu/ files/ downloads/ working _paper _027 _propertytax .pdf. frantz, jeff. 2014. “pa. granted exceptions allowing 164 school districts to raise property taxes more than 2.1 percent.” pennlive, may 2. available at http:// www .pennlive .com/ midstate/ index .ssf/ 2014/ 05/ school _property _tax _act _1 _exec .html. harper polling. 2015. “pennsylvania statewide poll.” available at http:// harperpolling .com/ polls/ pennsylvania -statewide -poll -may -2015. independent fiscal office. 2012. “analysis of hb 1776 and sb 1400 of 2012.” available at http:// www .ptcc .us/ pdf/ ifo _property _tax _analysis _final _public _release _092512 .pdf. ———. 2013. “analysis of proposal to replace school property taxes: house bill 76 and senate bill 76 of 2013.” available at http:// www .ifo .state .pa .us/ getfile .cfm ?file = / resources/ documents/ sr2013 -07 .pdf. jennings, marianne m. 2015. real estate law. 11th ed. boston: south-western college. klinger, jason. 2015. “franklin and marshall college poll: voters support medical marijuana, suspension of death penalty.” june 18. available at http:// www .fandm .edu/ news/ latest -news/ 2015/ 06/ 18/ franklin -marshall -college -poll -voters -support -medical -marijuana -suspension -of -death -penalty. madonna, g. terry, and michael l. young. 2015. “politically uncorrected: rip: the school property tax.” politicspa, march 24. available at http:// www .politicspa .com/ politically -uncorrected -rip -the -school -property -tax/ 64671/. paul, james. 2015. “for property tax relief, give voters control.” commonwealth foundation, november 13. available at http:// www .commonwealthfoundation .org/ policyblog/ detail/ for -property -tax -relief -give -voters -control. phmc (pennsylvania historical and museum commission). 2015a. “governor john sydney fine.” august 26. available at http:// www .phmc .state .pa .us/ portal/ com munities/ governors/ 1951 -2015/ john -fine .html. ———. 2015b. “governor milton jerrold shapp.” august 26. available at http:// www .phmc .state .pa .us/ portal/ communities/ governors/ 1951 -2015/ milton -shapp .html. 8 welton, allison. 2015. “what is act 1 and how did it impact property taxes and school funding?” keystone crossroads, june 22. available at https:// whyy .org/ articles/ what -is -act -1 -and -how -did -it -impact -property -taxes -and -school -funding. no, keep the property tax: it is the best tax for schools william a. fischel the local property tax is an important part of funding public school systems in most states. it should be clear from the outset that it would be unwise to rely entirely on local taxes of any sort to fund a system of public schools. some school districts contain a disproportionate number of poor and disadvantaged students, and such districts may need state assistance to give their children an adequate education. state mandates for special-needs students should also be accompanied by funds to pay for the additional expense. but aside from these exceptions, a properly and fairly administered system of local property taxation gives local voters—even those without school-age children—the right incentives to provide a thorough and efficient education. the basic argument for property taxes here is the basic economic argument, which is a distillation of an important paper by stanford’s caroline hoxby (1999). suppose that the local school superintendent, after consulting with principals and teachers, decides that the local high school needs to hire a group of teachers to teach in a newly created science, technology, engineering, and math (stem) program. the voters are asked, directly in a referendum or indirectly through the school board, to finance this program with an increase in local property taxes. in most communities, almost two-thirds of the voters will not have any direct interest in this because they have no children in schools (kurban, gallagher, and persky 2012). an increase in property taxes will seem quite unpalatable to them. considered in isolation, the tax increase would lower their home values (do and sirmans 1994). but the superintendent points out that the stem program will make the school district more attractive to families with school-age children. if the stem program has this effect, it will raise the value of existing homes, which offsets the adverse effect of the property tax rise. this will apply even to voters who currently have no children in school, as long as their homes could be purchased by a family with children. if the offsetting rise is greater than the reduction caused by the tax, most voters would regard this as a desirable program. and from an economic standpoint, a net gain in the 9 value of homes is an indicator that the program is efficient (brueckner 1982). it also follows that if there are no gains in home values from the program, or there are net losses, then the project is inefficient—the costs are registered as being less than the benefits. in this case, local property taxation provides incentives to reject boondoggles, since the net effect of the tax increase and the misconceived project will reduce home values. local property taxation encourages local voters and their school boards to accept cost effective projects and reject those that are losers in the eyes of home buyers. that is the basic theory: local property taxation subjects school spending to an effective benefit-cost test. the rest of this response briefly addresses evidence supporting this theory and adds a personal, pennsylvania story to illustrate some overlooked advantages of local control. evidence from economic studies the connection between school quality, property taxes, and local home values has been established in hundreds of studies, starting with a pioneering study of new jersey cities by wallace oates (1969). controlling for differences in location, size, and condition of the homes, oates found that levels of school spending and property taxes affected—were “capitalized in”—the average value of houses in each community. he concluded that this provided a test for the efficiency of local decisions: “for an increase in property taxes unaccompanied by an increase in the output of local public services, the bulk of the rise in taxes will be capitalized in the form of reduced property values. on the other hand, if a community increases its tax rates and employs the receipts to improve its school system, the coefficients indicate that the increased benefits from the expenditure side of the budget will roughly offset (or perhaps even more than offset) the depressive effect of the higher tax rates on local property values” (oates 1969, 968). studies since then have shown that voters are actually motivated by the connection between their property’s value and the effects of the program (sonstelie and portney 1980). homeowners are especially attuned to local public decisions because so much of their personal wealth is tied up in their homes (fischel 2001). that local voters without children still support schools because of their beneficial effects on property values is well established (hilber and mayer 2009). the discipline of local funding from property taxes and the encouragement it provides for local improvements explains why states that rely more on locally controlled property taxes have better schools. thomas husted and larry kenny (2000) found that states that reduced their reliance on local property taxes and increased state funds ended up with lower sat scores and other indicators of overall educational quality. joshua hall (2007) concluded that ohio districts that relied more heavily on property taxation per10 formed better than those that got more money from the state. in my own review of a national study of sat scores and state financing that ranked states from highest to lowest, i found that “in their top ten, none had more than 50 percent state funding. in the bottom ten, all but three states had more than 50 percent state funding” (fischel 2002, 98). the most dramatic and long-lasting experiment in school finance centralization—and rejection of local property tax financing—occurred in california in 1978. the state’s voters approved proposition 13, which cut most property taxes by more than half and left funding for the public school system almost entirely up to the state (o’sullivan, sexton, and sheffrin 1995). because of this tax revolt and because the state’s court had severely constrained most local districts’ ability to use local funds, california provides what economists call a “natural experiment” in school finance (fischel 1989). it was “natural” in that proposition 13 was sudden and unexpected by most state and local officials. the results of this clean shift from local to state funding could not be more stark. total spending declined, educational quality declined, and more-affluent families abandoned the system for private schools. spending in the poorest districts was increased somewhat, but the gap in test scores between the affluent and poorer districts did not narrow at all (brunner and sonstelie 2006). the local property tax also has the advantage of stability. in 2012 north dakota voters were invited to eliminate the local property tax and substitute for it the state’s swelling revenue from oil extraction (fracking) taxes (davey 2012). the voters rejected this plan overwhelmingly, and it turned out to be a wise choice: oil prices have since tumbled, and the state’s school spending would have suffered as well. voters may not love the property tax when considered in isolation, but they appear to realize that it is a more dependable source of revenue for services they care about. local control: a family story as an economist, i have emphasized the economic benefits providing for public education through local taxation. it has a long history in america, and it flourished during the period in which the american high school became the world leader in education (goldin and katz 2008). but local control of education through the property tax also has a less quantifiable aspect. political scientists have mentioned the community-building aspects of local education finance. alvin sokolow observes, “in its traditional and relatively unlimited version, the property tax also contributes to representative democracy in two interconnected ways: (1) by giving locally elected officials the discretion to allocate resources in a fashion that represents community priorities; and (2) by engaging citizen-taxpayers directly in the actions of government” (1998, 182). i illustrate this with a family story. 11 i grew up in lower saucon township, just outside of bethlehem, pennsylvania. the home my parents built and that my four siblings and i were raised in was then (in the 1950s) in a semirural area. the township schools were mostly remnants of one-room schools of the nineteenth century. although they were not run as traditional one-room schools (all ages in one room), most of them were “doubled up” with two grades per room. despite the antiquarian appeal of the system, my parents were not too pleased with this arrangement, and my mother persuaded my dad to run for the school board. despite a retiring personality and a complete absence of campaign activity, he won the election. he and other new board members helped consolidate the elementary schools into a new facility that offered a much better education (one grade per classroom). after twelve years on the board, he declined to run again. one of my proudest moments for my dad was when a delegation of neighbors arrived one evening to try to persuade him to run again. i would be projecting too much on this to say that dad was motivated by a concern for property values. he did own a fair amount of land and paid property taxes on it, but his chief concern was for the education of his children and that of other children in the township. the point i want to make is that this virtue does not run contrary to the financial incentives of a system that ties local schools to local property taxes. had the state of pennsylvania built and paid for all public schools from statewide taxes, it is more than possible that education would have progressed much more slowly. harvard economists claudia goldin and larry katz (2008) contrast the robust expansion of locally financed american education in the early twentieth century to the lagging european system, which was centrally financed. in europe, advances in education standards had to wait until a national consensus was reached. in america, local school directors like my dad could seize the initiative and move the system ahead with only local approval. such initiatives would be noticed by other districts, who would worry that they might fall behind (and have their home values decline). this benign competition results in more experimentation and keeps education in the forefront of public issues. the property tax as an institution helps make “doing good” match up with “doing well.” note this article was previously published as “commonwealth forum: should pennsylvania abolish the property tax for schools?” commonwealth 18, no. 1 (2016). © 2016 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http:// dx .doi .org/ 10 .15367/ cjppp .v18i1 .81. all rights reserved. references brueckner, jan k. 1982. “a test for allocative efficiency in the local public sector.” journal of public economics 19 (december): 311–321. 12 brunner, eric j., and jon sonstelie. 2006. “california’s school finance reform: an experiment in fiscal federalism.” in the tiebout model at fifty, edited by william a. fischel, 55–93. cambridge, ma: lincoln institute of land policy. davey, monica. 2012. “north dakota considers eliminating property tax.” new york times, june 11. available at http:// www .nytimes .com/ 2012/ 06/ 12/ us/ north -dakota -voters -consider -ending -property -tax .html. do, a. quang, and c. f. sirmans. 1994. “residential property tax capitalization: discount rate evidence from california.” national tax journal 47 (june): 341–348. fischel, william a. 1989. “did serrano cause proposition 13?” national tax journal 42 (december): 465–474. ———. 2001. the homevoter hypothesis: how home values influence local government taxation, school finance, and land-use policies. cambridge, ma: harvard university press. ———. 2002. “school finance litigation and property tax revolts: how undermining local control turns voters away from public education.” in developments in school finance, 1999–2000, edited by william j. fowler, jr., 77–128. washington, dc: national center for education statistics. goldin, claudia, and lawrence katz. 2008. the race between education and technology. cambridge, ma: harvard university press. hall, joshua. 2007. “local school finance and productive efficiency: evidence from ohio.” atlantic economic journal 35 (september): 289–301. hilber, christian a. l., and christopher mayer. 2009. “why do households without children support local public schools? linking house price capitalization to school spending.” journal of urban economics 65 (january): 74–90. hoxby, caroline m. 1999. “the productivity of schools and other local public goods producers.” journal of public economics 74 (october): 1–30. husted, thomas a., and lawrence w. kenny. 2000. “evidence on the impact of state government on primary and secondary education and the equity-efficiency trade-off.” journal of law and economics 43 (april): 285–308. kurban, haydar, ryan m. gallagher, and joseph j. persky. 2012. “estimating local redistribution through property-tax-funded public school systems.” national tax journal 65 (september): 629–652. oates, wallace e. 1969. “the effects of property taxes and local public spending on property values: an empirical study of tax capitalization and the tiebout hypothesis.” journal of political economy 77 (november–december): 957–971. o’sullivan, arthur, terri a. sexton, and steven m. sheffrin. 1995. property taxes and tax revolts: the legacy of proposition 13. new york: cambridge university press. sokolow, alvin d. 1998. “the changing property tax and state-local relations.” publius: the journal of federalism 28 (january): 165–187. sonstelie, jon c., and paul r. portney. 1980. “take the money and run: a theory of voting in local referenda.” journal of urban economics 8 (september): 187–195. discussion questions 1. what would be the benefits of eliminating the property tax in pennsylvania? who would the change benefit the most? 13 2. what sources of revenue would replace the property tax if it were eliminated? why do argall and hopcraft argue that these funding mechanisms would be better for education? 3. why does fischel argue that the property tax is the best way to fund education? 4. how can fischel look at the same funding system as argall and hopcraft and reach a completely different conclusion? 5. who should be most responsible for funding education in pennsylvania? the state or local governments? from pennsylvania politics and policy: a commonwealth reader, volume 2. edited by michelle j. atherton and j. wesley leckrone (philadelphia, temple university press, 2019). leaving money on the table: pennsylvania exceptionalism in resisting energy severance taxes commonwealth, volume 19, issue 1 (2017). © 2017 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/com.v19i1.131. all rights reserved. leaving money on the table pennsylvania exceptionalism in resisting energy severance taxes rachel l. hampton university of michigan barry g. rabe university of michigan nearly all energyproducing states elect to adopt and sustain a tax on the extraction of their oil and gas resources through socalled severance taxes, generating significant revenue for general as well as specialized state funds. political support for such taxes generally crosses party lines and endures across multiple partisan shifts in the political control of a state. this reflects numerous features that tend to make these taxes quite popular and durable across election cycles. this long standing pattern, however, faces one major exception: pennsylvania’s enduring reluctance to follow the path of other major energyproducing states and adopt such a tax. this article explores what it deems “pennsylvania exceptionalism,” as it seeks to address the issue of why one leading energyproducing state would refrain from tax adoption in contrast to every other such state. it places particular emphasis on the past decade, in which natural gas in shale deposits has triggered a dramatic expansion of production in pennsylvania and ongoing political controversy over whether or not a severance tax should be adopted. energy production in the united states is not a new phenomenon. largescale oil drilling formally began before the civil war in pennsylvania and expanded to many other states by the turn of the twentieth century, alongside extensive extraction of coal and natural gas. by 1902, one oil well in spindletop, texas, had produced over 17 million barrels of oil 6 rachel l. hampton and barry g. rabe and the state has since remained a leading producer of both oil and natural gas. texas and many other producing states moved fairly rapidly to establish some tax on output, in some cases relying upon this as a major revenue source. by the 1990s, though, many states assumed that their oil and gas production would plummet as supplies declined, likely leading to reduced reliance on severance tax revenue in the future. the mid-2 000s, however, saw the development of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling techniques that allowed many states to tap into previously unavailable resources, such as oil and natural gas found in shale deposits. in some cases, states with long energy extraction histories got a new lease on life as a major energy producer. north dakota, for instance, experienced a boom of oil extraction starting around 2006. such development created significant growth in the state’s economy as its gross domestic product rose and unemployment rates dropped. the state’s population grew for the first time in decades (rabe and hampton 2016), with particularly significant growth in localities near shale development. other states, such as colorado, oklahoma, and texas, also fit this pattern. but perhaps no state has stood out as has pennsylvania in this new era of energy production. the state assumed a prominent role in the debate over hydraulic fracturing as it pursued its substantial natural gas deposits embedded in the marcellus shale. the state also experienced a significant economic boom related to expanded fracking, while it gained national notoriety over controversies related to the practice, including possible risks to water, land, air, and public health. in many respects, pennsylvania emerged as a leading face of hydraulic fracturing, reflected in popular films and considerable media attention. but despite changes in energy production throughout the united states, many states that engaged in the industry preserved the status quo, especially regarding their fiscal regimes (rabe and hampton 2015). more specifically, states mostly maintained existing taxes on the extraction of their oil and gas resources. these taxes, known as severance taxes, are not a foreign concept to production states; in fact, they are the norm for nearly all petrostates in the united states, except pennsylvania. such broad acceptance of these taxes makes it arguably more intriguing that a poster child of the hydraulic fracturing movement does not have one. this article explores the status of severance taxation in the united states. it describes these taxes and considers why most states—including all other major oil and gas producers—employ them. it further focuses briefly on their structure and use, while also touching on any perceived benefits and consequences, before turning to the question of why only one state has not enacted such a tax. leaving money on the table 7 in particular, this article responds to the question of why pennsylvania, a major player in the u.s. energy sphere, has failed to go where virtually every other oil and gas-p roducing state has gone before in neglecting to enact a severance tax. it notes that the state’s exceptionalism—its failure to implement a severance tax—spans the three governorships that have existed during the time of increased natural gas production in the state starting in the mid2000s. this article also addresses the consequences of such a decision, including direct defiance of public support for a severance tax and a loss of realizing potential revenues from it during difficult fiscal times in pennsylvania. severance taxes at its core, a severance tax is a tax on the extraction of a nonrenewable natural resource like timber, uranium, or coal. but most significant in terms of total revenue, severance taxes are levied on the extraction of oil and natural gas. such taxes are levied in some form in 38 states, and of the top 15 oil and gas producing states, all employ a severance tax except pennsylvania (see table 1). as a result, at least in the state energy realm, severance taxes are nearly universally adopted. severance taxes are also levied in states regardless of partisan control of state government, and the taxes have survived through the exchanging of party control. alaska has had a longstanding severance tax amid numerous republican governors and legislatures as well as occasional democratic leaders. north dakota political leanings have similarly been relatively conservative with republican domination of both executive and legislative branches during much of recent decades. the state has two overlapping taxes, adopted in 1953 by the legislature and another adopted in 1980 via ballot proposition and constitutional amendment. during republican administrations, both states also pursued constitutionally backed trust funds that allow each state to set aside tax revenues for permanent protection. texas has maintained its severance taxes across eras of republican, democratic, and splitparty government control, as has been the case in states such as arkansas, colorado, louisiana, new mexico, and west virginia, among others. as far as state oil and gas severance taxes go, they are actually quite diverse in scope and form. they are referred to not only as severance taxes but also as production or conservation taxes, based either on the market value of the resource or the volume produced. these taxes range from rates that may be considered lower, like 1.3% of value, as is the case in mississippi,1 to rates as great as 10% of production value of oil, as in north dakota. of course it is 8 rachel l. hampton and barry g. rabe misleading to consider only the rate of value or volume taxed because states also employ certain tax structures that include incentives and deductions that may lower the effective tax rate. thus, for example, the alaskan severance tax appears high in its net rate (35%), but this is deceptive, given the way it actually applies the tax (on net as opposed to gross value) and given its generous program of tax credits, which in recent years has exceeded total tax revenue. political attractiveness of severance taxes as discussed, almost every major producing state employs a severance tax. but why would so many states adopt such a tax, given the general controversy surrounding taxation and tremendous variation in how states establish taxes to address their fiscal needs? while many other taxes face almost guaranteed opposition, as demonstrated by the divisive state debates over proposed gasoline excise tax increases and carbon tax adoption, the severance tax is almost universally accepted. there seems to be a political agreement across table 1. top oil and gasproducing states top oilproducing states severance tax? top natural gas– producing states severance tax? texas yes texas yes north dakota yes pennsylvania no california yes oklahoma yes alaska yes louisiana yes oklahoma yes wyoming yes new mexico yes colorado yes colorado yes new mexico yes wyoming yes arkansas yes louisiana yes west virginia yes kansas yes ohio yes utah yes utah yes ohio yes alaska yes montana yes north dakota yes mississippi yes kansas yes illinois yes california yes sources: u.s. energy information administration, rankings: crude oil production, june 2016 (thousand barrels), available at www.eia.gov/state/rankings/#/series/46, accessed january 4, 2017. u.s. energy information administration, rankings: natural gas marketed production, 2014 (million cubic feet), available at www.eia.gov/state/rankings/#/series/47, accessed january 4, 2017. national conference of state legislatures, state severance taxes, 2012, available at http://www.ncsl.org/ 4, 2017. accessed january collections.aspx, taxseveranceresearch/fiscalstatepolicy/2011leaving money on the table 9 the american states—with few exceptions—that if you extract oil or gas, you put a tax on what is removed from below the surface of the ground. in subsequent sections, we begin to explain the political appeal of these taxes. early precedents a number of states have had severance taxes for some time. in many instances, this began before multiple states and nations produced much oil and gas, thereby giving them considerable latitude in imposing a tax on a commodity that was in great demand amid uncertain supply options. in texas, for instance, the severance tax on oil was adopted in 1907, and it established an early and visible model that could be replicated as neighboring states or states in other regions tapped their own fossil fuel deposits in subsequent decades. indeed, the texas precedent demonstrated that a severance tax was politically feasible and quite popular. it also established a precedent to set aside some revenues for specific programs and build a constituency through trust funds for elementary, secondary, and higher education, setting the stage for diffusion of these ideas across many states. easy money and tax displacement the most obvious reason a state might levy a tax on the extraction of oil and gas is for the considerable revenue that it might generate. severance taxes are generally straightforward to adopt and implement, concentrated on points of production from drilling. so they can be fairly simple in their design and operation and do not require creation of a major staff to implement. moreover, they offer the possibility of generating significant funds for a state that could substitute these revenues for other taxes, perhaps allowing maintenance of lower rates for highly unpopular taxes on income or sales. states have several options in setting up these taxes, whereby they can tax either the market value of the oil and gas that is extracted, the volume that is produced, or some combination of these two (brown 2013). revenues from severance taxes can be quite large in the states that produce significant amounts of oil and gas (see table 2). for north dakota, severance tax collections amounted to over $3 billion for the state in 2014. that same year, severance tax collections generated over $2 billion for alaska and $6 billion for texas. standing alone, these revenues are significant, but they are also important in context; many oila nd gasproducing states rely on severance taxes to make up a significant portion of their total state tax revenue. in north dakota, that $3 billion accounted for over 50% of the state’s total tax collection. in alaska, its severance tax made up over 70% of the state’s total tax collection, while the percentage share in texas was only 10%. ta bl e 2 . s ta te s ev er an ce c ol le ct io ns b y ye ar , 2 0 0 5 –2 0 1 5 ( c ur re nt d ol la rs , 0 0 0 s) s ta te 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 al ab am a 14 4, 81 3 18 2, 77 8 14 4, 30 6 19 7, 58 1 11 5, 37 4 90 ,5 38 11 5, 97 5 11 6, 46 7 11 9, 42 4 11 5, 43 7 79 ,2 35 al as ka 92 5, 69 9 1, 27 4, 64 2 2, 43 6, 66 0 6, 93 9, 04 0 3, 82 9, 56 4 3, 35 5, 04 9 4, 23 8, 78 9 5, 78 7, 36 0 4, 01 6, 96 6 2, 45 6, 21 2 10 5, 23 3 ar iz on a 26 ,3 38 40 ,4 94 43 ,5 60 43 ,7 57 19 ,4 81 33 ,3 72 40 ,2 37 40 ,5 78 29 ,8 29 26 ,1 90 24 ,8 62 ar ka ns as 18 ,5 65 22 ,2 25 21 ,5 79 27 ,8 20 33 ,5 47 65 ,1 47 79 ,6 56 82 ,7 70 80 ,8 62 10 8, 51 1 10 4, 38 3 ca lif or ni a 14 ,2 51 16 ,0 48 31 ,5 26 31 ,5 99 27 ,1 05 24 ,4 09 31 ,8 79 37 ,1 12 37 ,7 32 38 ,6 86 69 ,9 60 co lo ra do 14 5, 11 4 21 2, 75 3 13 6, 88 8 15 1, 47 4 28 5, 01 5 71 ,4 36 14 6, 69 0 17 5, 09 0 14 7, 73 2 24 5, 08 7 29 2, 68 3 id ah o 2, 48 8 2, 89 7 6, 64 9 6, 75 8 4, 95 2 6, 73 0 7, 78 7 8, 30 9 6, 22 4 6, 00 4 6, 14 3 k an sa s 11 7, 42 4 14 9, 67 6 13 2, 28 1 16 8, 69 6 14 2, 65 8 10 2, 87 8 12 2, 15 2 13 2, 90 7 73 ,8 06 12 4, 88 3 14 8, 07 7 k en tu ck y 22 8, 84 8 28 1, 58 1 27 5, 31 3 29 3, 33 4 35 5, 98 5 31 7, 14 6 34 2, 32 0 34 6, 05 0 26 9, 78 6 24 1, 98 9 22 0, 61 3 lo ui si an a 71 1, 76 6 71 6, 39 6 90 4, 16 4 1, 03 5, 69 5 91 1, 43 3 75 8, 46 9 72 9, 26 0 88 5, 98 2 83 4, 11 6 8 62 ,1 50 73 1, 33 0 m ic hi ga n 68 ,0 55 90 ,9 56 81 ,8 74 11 3, 50 6 59 ,3 43 57 ,4 24 80 ,4 23 64 ,2 85 70 ,0 87 73 ,4 88 36 ,8 83 m in ne so ta 32 ,3 48 28 ,0 22 34 ,5 91 31 ,8 21 45 ,8 20 23 ,2 90 27 ,6 18 46 ,3 70 54 ,3 43 42 ,0 62 58 ,9 31 m is si ss ip pi 66 ,2 75 89 ,9 10 81 ,8 14 13 5, 24 8 11 3, 76 2 90 ,8 32 11 2, 32 6 11 6, 37 8 10 4, 69 2 91 ,0 59 78 ,7 26 m on ta na 18 1, 20 1 24 7, 38 5 26 4, 74 0 34 7, 22 1 34 9, 71 4 25 3, 64 9 27 8, 37 2 30 5, 61 7 28 2, 35 6 30 5, 61 4 26 9, 28 7 n eb ra sk a 2, 56 0 2, 82 0 2, 49 9 4, 96 8 4, 71 8 3, 47 3 4, 44 0 5, 35 5 4, 06 4 6, 76 2 5, 28 2 n ev ad a 39 ,6 91 44 ,5 26 62 ,1 78 74 ,1 30 14 5, 45 0 18 2, 75 2 27 2, 24 0 30 3, 03 8 29 0, 44 8 11 1, 39 5 12 1, 60 4 n ew m ex ic o 71 2, 53 9 92 3, 30 4 94 2, 35 4 62 5, 93 8 93 1, 83 2 65 4, 75 2 80 4, 58 6 76 8, 10 6 71 3, 99 8 1, 06 6, 34 3 1, 00 1, 74 1 n or th d ak ot a 26 2, 33 9 34 6, 67 2 39 1, 33 7 79 1, 69 2 82 7, 41 7 1, 13 6, 55 3 1, 88 3, 81 6 3, 18 7, 11 2 2, 45 7, 53 0 3, 29 3, 05 3 2, 84 9, 32 4 o hi o 7, 92 0 7, 67 5 7, 01 5 9, 42 0 11 ,0 52 10 ,5 50 11 ,1 97 10 ,1 82 12 ,3 08 10 ,1 94 22 ,9 81 o kl ah om a 76 2, 50 6 1, 05 9, 91 9 94 2, 14 8 1, 18 4, 76 5 1, 06 7, 18 2 74 3, 68 6 83 0, 66 2 84 8, 94 7 51 5, 98 1 67 9, 40 6 55 6, 54 6 o re go n 12 ,1 48 12 ,0 32 12 ,5 13 11 ,8 15 13 ,0 38 12 ,7 42 13 ,1 99 14 ,1 19 23 ,3 05 23 ,4 24 24 ,1 49 pe nn sy lv an ia — — — — — — — — — — — te xa s 2, 34 7, 51 2 3, 21 6, 38 7 2, 76 2, 94 0 4, 12 4, 42 8 2, 33 8, 48 1 1, 73 7, 13 6 2, 67 7, 60 4 3, 65 5, 58 2 4, 64 7, 84 8 6, 01 4, 35 0 4, 00 5, 37 1 u ta h 73 ,4 34 99 ,5 17 10 1, 53 9 10 6, 06 0 10 2, 12 1 89 ,1 62 10 1, 66 5 10 7, 07 5 11 2, 05 0 15 5, 74 3 13 0, 21 2 w as hi ng to n 43 ,0 34 48 ,4 46 48 ,7 27 44 ,0 38 29 ,6 81 20 ,9 05 26 ,7 06 36 ,3 02 38 ,6 56 41 ,9 50 43 ,8 93 w es t vi rg in ia 30 7, 26 5 33 6, 38 7 32 8, 32 0 34 7, 59 2 37 6, 67 7 41 7, 23 0 58 5, 99 2 62 6, 20 3 60 8, 37 1 68 1, 82 4 66 8, 88 0 w yo m in g 80 5, 61 3 1, 04 3, 16 0 80 3, 63 2 88 3, 78 6 1, 19 7, 54 0 72 1, 00 2 1, 04 4, 15 0 96 8, 52 5 86 7, 93 3 88 3, 02 5 88 3, 91 3 u sa 8, 13 1, 57 3 10 ,5 67 ,6 67 11 ,0 63 ,6 00 17 ,8 08 ,3 29 13 ,4 38 ,4 51 11 ,0 71 ,8 12 14 ,6 92 ,7 66 18 ,7 52 ,7 29 16 ,4 93 ,2 48 17 ,7 80 ,8 08 12 ,6 03 ,0 72 so ur ce s: n at io na l c on fe re nc e of s ta te l eg is la tu re s, s ta te s ev er an ce t ax es , 2 01 2 , av ai la bl e at w w w .n cs l.o rg /r es ea rc h/ fis ca l po lic y/ 2 01 1 st at e se ve ra nc e ta x co lle ct io ns .a sp x, a cc es se d ja nu ar y 4 , 2 01 7. j am es a . r ic ha rd so n, “ s ev er an ce t ax , s ta te ,” in t he e nc yc lo pe di a of t ax at io n an d ta x po lic y, 2 nd e d. ( w as hi ng to n, d c : u rb an i ns ti tu te p re ss , 2 0 0 5 ), 3 5 7– 3 6 0 . u .s . c en su s b ur ea u, g ov er nm en ts d iv is io n, “ s ta te g ov er nm en t ta x c ol le ct io ns ,” a va ila bl e at w w w .c en su s. go v/ go vs /s ta te ta x, a cc es se d ja nu ar y 4 , 2 01 7. n ot es : r ev en ue s in cl ud e al l t yp es o f se ve ra nc e ta xe s, n ot ju st o il an d ga s ex cl us iv el y. u .s . c en su s b ur ea u da ta r efl ec t th e fa ct t ha t se ve ra nc e ta xe s ar e ta xe s on t he e xt ra ct io n of n at ura l r es ou rc es . s ev er an ce t ax es m ay b e ap pl ie d to , am on g ot he r re so ur ce s, fi sh er ie s, c oa l, tim be r, ur an iu m , an d ir on o re , in a dd it io n to o il an d ga s. d es pi te t he se o th er s ev er an ce t ax es , ho w ev er , st at es t ha t pr od uc e oi l a nd g as r ec ei ve t he v as t m aj or it y of s ev er an ce t ax c ol le ct io ns . w hi le p en ns yl va ni a do es n ot le vy a s ev er an ce t ax o n na tu ra l g as , oi l, or c oa l, it d oe s ha ve w ha t is c al le d an “ im pa ct f ee ,” a s di sc us se d la te r in t hi s ar ti cl e. t he im pa ct f ee c ol le ct io ns in 2 01 1– 2 01 5 w er e 2 0 4 ,2 10 ; 2 0 2 ,4 72 ; 2 2 5 ,7 5 2 ; 2 2 3 ,5 0 0 ; 18 7, 71 2 ( 0 0 0 s) , fa r be lo w w ha t m os t ot he r hi gh p ro du ct io n st at es g en er at e th ro ug h se ve ra nc e ta xe s. s ee a ct 1 3 p ub lic u til it y c om m is si on , d is bu rs em en t an d im pa ct f ee s. a va ila bl e at w w w .a ct 13 r ep or tin g. pu c. pa .g ov /m od ul es /p ub lic r ep or tin g/ o ve rv ie w .a sp x. a cc es se d ja nu ar y 4 , 2 01 7. 12 rachel l. hampton and barry g. rabe these revenues can fluctuate, given boom-and-bust cycles in production and commodity prices, as is further reflected in table 2. however, severance taxes have allowed some states to not only suppress rates of other taxes but also avoid adoption of contentious taxes in some cases as long as they provide some ongoing revenue. neither alaska nor wyoming, for example, have an income tax and have generally produced sufficient revenue from energy extraction taxes to keep an income tax off their state agendas. opportunity to earmark revenue and build a constituency beyond generating substantial revenues for a state, severance taxes enable states to create and maintain funds directed to specific purposes such as education, or addressing environmental concerns tied to production. most prominently, several oila nd gasproducing states allocate severance tax revenues to what are known as trust—or permanent—funds, following on the pioneering effort in texas from the early twentieth century. these funds are traditionally protected by state constitutions and thus are designed to feature greater longevity than other state funds created only through statute (rabe and hampton 2016). states that use trusts funds include texas, new mexico, wyoming, montana, alaska, and most recently, north dakota, utah, and west virginia. as a result of these funds, oil and gasproducing states may be able to better protect themselves against any boomor-b ust cycles that traditionally plague petrostates (ross 2012). this type of earmarking revenue from a specific tax can also create the opportunity for a state government to build a supportive political constituency through the targeted allocation of those funds. this linkage may foster considerable durability of the tax, given the recognition that its reduction or elimination could endanger a popular public benefit connected to the tax.2 alaska stands out as a prime example. after realizing how quickly any windfall from oil production would be depleted, alaskan governor jay hammond pushed for a trust fund that was ultimately adopted through constitutional amendment in 1976 (groh and erickson 2012). to further protect the fund, hammond created the alaskan dividend system whereby citizens of alaska are sent a check—sometimes in amounts as high as $2,000—from the permanent fund earnings each year (moss 2012). because of this allocation, citizens of alaska have kept their eyes riveted on both the fund and the severance tax revenues that are allocated toward the fund, as evinced in recent debates that emerged starting in the mid-2 000s. for decades, any suggestion of reduced tax rates has been linked in the public mind with a possible loss of dividend revenue and proves extremely controversial. other states have earmarked severance tax funds for popular programs, such as wyoming’s linkage with a leaving money on the table 13 significant scholarship program named after a popular former governor for students pursuing higher education at public institutions within the state. burden shifting severance taxes are also attractive to energyproducing states because the burden of the tax is often passed along the production chain to outof-s tate consumers (mieszkowski and soligo 2012). many top producing states—such as alaska, louisiana, montana, oklahoma, wyoming, and north dakota— are relatively low consuming states, meaning that more than 95% of their production is ultimately exported. even major consuming states such as texas and pennsylvania export large amounts of the energy that they produce (u.s. energy information administration 2014b). severance taxes may thus be a relatively easy sell to constituents who might otherwise worry about the possible impact of a tax that is primarily applied to their consumption of energy. this enables legislative supporters of a severance tax to claim political credit for imposing a cost on the removal of a natural resource that cannot be restored after use while knowing that most of the burden of any cost on consumption will be borne in other states or nations. producing states thus face few political consequences from constituents about imposing price increases and also gain a possible political benefit by creating ways to spend the revenues for popular programs that they can sustain over time. there may well be parallels between the political attractiveness of severance taxes and other taxes that essentially export the costs, such as taxes imposed on vacations or business travel through hotel bills or rental cars. dick cheney recognized this as he defended high severance taxes while serving as wyoming’s representative in congress during the 1970s (powers 1982). political constraints on severance taxes the nearly unanimous rate of severance tax adoption among oil and gas producing states underscores the multiple factors that make them politically attractive despite their partisan control or geographic region. their high political feasibility also translates into durability across various stages of implementation and multiple shifts of political leadership. no state has ever repealed an oil or gas severance tax that has been adopted and relatively few have undertaken major rate reductions after initial adoption (rabe and hampton 2015). this has even endured into the shale era, when overall production has soared and states might be expected to consider repeal or rate reduction to lure or retain drilling within their boundaries, given increasing interstate competition to sustain and expand production. 14 rachel l. hampton and barry g. rabe nonetheless, the shale era does underscore some of the challenges to sustaining or expanding severance taxes, given the possibility that such a tax might discourage industry from seeking further production in the state that employs the tax (harrison 2006). this has led to some speculation that drilling firms might play one state against others in search of the lowest possible tax rates, along with the easiest paths to regulatory compliance, in making their location and investment decisions. such arguments appeared, for example, in the alaskan debates over its severance taxes during the last decade. state political leaders, including republican governor sean parnell, expressed concern that alaska would be outcompeted by states, like north dakota, if its tax remained high, particularly given the relatively high cost of launching and sustaining drilling operations in remote alaska and then moving its products to market. this resulted in significant tax reductions in 2013, though these proved highly controversial and contributed to parnell’s reelection defeat in 2014. but in fact, there is little evidence that states have pursued less aggressive taxes in the shale era (rabe and hampton 2015), and some studies suggest that arguments that reducing severance taxes will result in increased industry investment and production have little empirical foundation (kunce 2003). severance taxes also threaten possible support to political officials from the oil and gas industry and their employees. states with a dominant energy producing culture may compel politicians to curry favor with industry in search of possible campaign support or even employment after elected careers have ended or continue for parttime legislators. the questions of possible capture of state officials by local energy industries endure, albeit without much empirical evidence that this can block initial severance tax adoption, reverse such policies once created, or lead to significant statutory rate reductions over time. instead, industry influence may be subtler, reflected in expanded state efforts to provide tax credits and economic development incentives or more flexible approaches to regulatory compliance. overall, the political upside of severance taxes continues to outweigh the negatives, at least in the vast majority of state cases to date. pennsylvania exceptionalism this overall pattern of high political feasibility for severance taxes makes the pennsylvania case unique and worthy of extended consideration, given its unique standing among oila nd gasproducing states as averse to such taxes. since the drake well was first drilled in pennsylvania in 1859 (wile 2012; yergin 2011), the state has been a major energy producer, including coal, oil, and natural gas, across many decades, with operations in many of the leaving money on the table 15 state’s 67 counties. while the state has also long extracted natural gas, and has used horizontal drilling techniques since 2003, it generally assumed that it was phasing out fossil fuel production in the late 1990s and early 2000s and increasingly turned toward development of renewables through regulatory mandates and tax incentives (rabe 2007). it was not until around 2009 that drilling activity accelerated markedly (u.s. energy information administration 2016a, 2016b), allowing the state to tap into the bountiful marcellus shale. since that time, the landscape and economic geography of pennsylvania have shifted considerably, given the advent of the shale era and pennsylvania’s emergence as the second-l argest natural gas– producing state, surpassed only by texas. the number of producing gas wells in the state increased from 57,346 in 2009 to over 70,000 in 2014, and total volume of natural gas production soared during these years (see table 3). the oil and gas industry in pennsylvania also saw substantial growth in both employment and wages. employment in the oil and gas industry went from 5,829 in 2007 to 20,943 in 2012. the average annual pay in that same industry went from $60,870 in table 3. pennsylvania natural gas gross withdrawals year natural gas gross withdrawal (million cubic feet) 2000 150,000 2001 130,853 2002 157,800 2003 159,827 2004 197,217 2005 168,501 2006 175,950 2007 182,227 2008 198,295 2009 273,869 2010 572,902 2011 1,310,592 2012 2,256,696 2013 3,258,042 2014 4,214,643 2015 4,768,848 source: u.s. energy information administration, pennsylvania natural gas gross withdrawals, 2016, available at http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9010pa2a.htm, accessed january 4, 2017. 16 rachel l. hampton and barry g. rabe 2007 to $82,974 in 2012 (u.s. bureau of labor statistics 2014). pittsburgh was increasingly declared as the hub of industrial leadership of this expanding industry and large industrywide advocacy groups began to form in this shale play, such as the marcellus shale coalition. such regional organizations also included participation by ohio and west virginia firms, although pennsylvania continued to dominate this activity, particularly after new york imposed an extended moratorium on fracking in 2015 after years of temporary halts due to environmental opposition. industry and state government officials have likened pennsylvania to a burgeoning natural gas superpower, potentially luring refineries and manufacturing firms eager to have proximity to abundant natural gas supplies. the dramatic increase in production of natural gas in the state tied to hydraulic fracturing has entailed more gas production and jobs, but also increased environmental risks to air quality and groundwater. additionally, the state may face impacts from the use of diesel, forest disruption from pipeline construction, and methane leakage. a penn state university study in 2016, for instance, found that the cost of environmental impacts would range from $162 to $755 thousand per well, although it ultimately concluded that the economic benefits to the state from drilling in the marcellus shale would exceed any known environmental impacts (considine, considine, and watson 2016). amid all of this production and growth—and environmental impact— however, the state has sustained its unique status as the only state that produces oil and gas but applies no severance tax to that extraction. this decision cannot be explained by any historic aversion to taxation, reflected in relatively high rates of sales and personal income taxes over an extended time. the state has shifted back and forth between various forms of republican and democratic party control, although it routinely voted for democratic presidential candidates between 1988 and 2012. it has not adopted any constitutional amendments, contrary to other states, to ban or restrict various forms of taxation and has generally ranked toward the middle of the pack among states according to their commitment to environmental protection (rabe 2016b). the uniqueness of the pennsylvania system and its sustained opposition to a severance tax cannot be overemphasized. a quick comparison to the state’s shale neighbors who are both heavily involved in energy production—west virginia and ohio—bolsters this idea that pennsylvania has truly deviated from the american state norm on this issue: west virginia and ohio both levy severance taxes. west virginia overcame aggressive coal industry opposition to a severance tax in the 1950s and subsequently established such taxes for oil and natural gas; it has also most recently created a trust fund called the leaving money on the table 17 west virginia fund, although it receives a far smaller portion of state tax proceeds than most other trust funds, including those in alaska, north dakota, and texas (rabe and hampton 2016). ohio adopted a resource severance tax on oil, natural gas, salt, and a variety of minerals in 1972. consequently, pennsylvania presumably has political and economic space to adopt some version of a tax without triggering huge losses of development to neighboring jurisdictions. nonetheless, it remains the exceptional american case throughout the shale era. to understand this costly decision requires exploration into the political arena from which these decisions were made. severance tax aversion across three shale era governorships pennsylvania’s decision to refrain from a severance tax illustrates one state government option in the politics of economic development, whereby a state attempts to foster economic growth in a particular sector by either reducing or eliminating specific costs imposed on an industry through some form of taxation. the state has long struggled politically with boomandbust cycles that reflect its longstanding role as a major producer of fossil fuel energy alongside major development of manufacturing steel and other energy intensive industries. during periods of decline in these areas, pennsylvania has actively explored a wide range of development strategies that either would reverse these patterns of contractions or promote alternative forms of economic development, as has been the case in many other states (brace 1993; eisinger 1989; hansen 1989). this has occurred across multiple decades amid various patterns of partisan control of state government. one cornerstone across these various pennsylvania economic development efforts has been attempting to promote as much fossil fuel development as possible by rejecting proposals to tax extraction. some severance tax opponents contend that relatively high rates of corporate income and other taxes that cut across various industries may already impose significant tax burdens on energyproducing industries. this reflects a desire to use broaderbased taxes in the state but also to use a nonseverance tax strategy to signal to the energy sector a strong desire to sustain legacy production as long as possible. this then pivoted toward a desire to sustain an antitax approach to promote expanded production once the shale era opened a possible path toward a return to national leadership in natural gas output and related use. in either instance, the absence of a severance tax has been seen as maximizing potential development of the resource. however, the continuation of this policy during the past decade coincided with a growing partisan divide on the question of whether pennsylvania 18 rachel l. hampton and barry g. rabe should join the ranks of all other gasa nd oil-p roducing states and adopt a severance tax. throughout the last decade, the governorships of edward rendell (democrat, 2003–2011), tom corbett (republican, 2011–2015), and tom wolf (democrat, 2015–2019) have featured highdecibel and near-c onstant state political debate over the severance tax question, usually reflecting major partisan divides between antitax republicans and protax democrats. this alignment varied somewhat, linked in part to whether or not drilling was occurring in a particular legislative district. but this was quite limited and leaves partisan affiliation as the best predictor of political response to numerous proposals to adopt some form of a severance tax. divided partisan control in the rendell era this section reviews the pennsylvanian odyssey of debating but rejecting severance taxes during this period, beginning with the rendell era. first elected in 2003, rendell was the first pennsylvania governor to see the reemergence of a surge in shale gas production in the state. rendell supported drilling but also endorsed a severance tax. he embraced legislation that would create a 5% tax on the extraction of natural gas and oil, though most pennsylvania fossil fuel production involved only the former. this proposal was generally supported by democrats in the legislature while it was strongly opposed by most republicans. the gop retained control of the senate throughout rendell’s entire governorship, a pattern that continued through the corbett and wolf administrations. in turn, the house was held by republicans in 2005–2006 and then later between 2011 and 2016. the highly partisan divide over a severance tax proposal was also linked to controversy over how to develop a regulatory system to oversee this new and expanding form of energy extraction (rabe and borick 2013). rendell argued that other states had successfully adopted and maintained such a tax without harming production and that such a tax in pennsylvania could help diversify the state’s base of resources, which had been severely strained by the great recession. but by 2010, the governor pronounced the severance tax plan dead after protracted legislative debate. “it is irresponsible for senate and house republicans to refuse to compromise and simply turn their backs on these negotiations after days and weeks and months of work,” he said. “their clear unwillingness to change their previous proposal or to resolve differences with the house democrats and with my administration makes it obvious that they have killed the severance tax in this legislative session” (swift 2010). in response, republican officials countered that any tax adopted during the formative period of shale development and expansion could drive energy extraction investment to other jurisdictions, particularly given the expanding set of leaving money on the table 19 drilling options as shale supply discoveries continued to expand around the nation and beyond. some republicans opposed a tax under any circumstances whereas others argued that it should be tabled during this period of rapid expansion but possibly be revisited in the future after development matured. unified republican control in the corbett era and the emergence of the impact fee termlimited rendell did not get the chance to further pursue his severance tax vision; republican tom corbett was elected as his successor in 2010, with unified republican control of the governorship and both legislative chambers during his single term. having aligned himself heavily with the gas industry during his election and in earlier stages of his political career as attorney general, including substantial campaign donations, corbett pushed aggressively for shale gas development as a centerpiece of a way to transform the pennsylvania economy. in his first budget message as governor, in 2011, he said: “let’s make pennsylvania the hub of this (drilling) boom. just as the oil companies decided to headquarter in one of a dozen states with oil, let’s make pennsylvania the texas of the natural gas boom. i’m determined that pennsylvania not lose this moment. we have the chance to get it right the first time, the chance to grow our way out of hard days” (bauers 2011). corbett made no bones about his view that severance tax adoption was “unamerican” and could destroy any prospect of pennsylvania realizing its potential as a natural gas powerhouse (rabe and borick 2013, 329). corbett’s plan to transform pennsylvania into a natural gas superpower involved a multipart strategy that emerged in part from an advisory commission he convened early in his governorship. this would ultimately lead to legislation known as the unconventional gas well impact fee act (or act 13), signed into law by corbett in february 2012 after legislative votes that fell largely along partisan lines. the legislation would represent one of the first efforts by any state to address numerous aspects of shale governance through one comprehensive statute, as many states had been relying primarily on earlier regulatory and tax policies applied to conventional drilling or piecemeal reforms of earlier policies (rabe and borick 2013). it included many new regulatory provisions, although it received national attention primarily for two reasons. first, it formally expanded state government authority over numerous aspects of hydraulic fracturing, including many types of land-u se decisions that might otherwise fall under local government control. this included such issues as restricting well site operating hours, limiting noise around drilling operations, and establishing conditions for screening and fencing around 20 rachel l. hampton and barry g. rabe sites, even in cases where drilling took place near residential areas or small businesses. pennsylvania had a longstanding tradition of substantial state deference to local authorities in most areas of zoning and land-u se planning, including many issues linked to expansion of drilling. but act 13 formally shifted that control to state authorities, with various responsibilities allocated to the pennsylvania department of environmental protection and related state agencies that generally did not regulate local land use. this represented a form of preemption designed to limit local resistance to expanded drilling, an issue that has also emerged in many other states where local and state views have clashed (rice 2016). this was intended to make it as straightforward as possible for gas extraction proposals to secure needed permits and approvals to move ahead with new drilling operations. act 13 would, however, ultimately produce prolonged litigation that led to a historic reversal in a 2013 state supreme court case, robinson township v. commonwealth of pennsylvania (52 a.3d 463 [pa. cmwlth. 2012]), that would produce much subsequent uncertainty about the boundary of state and local roles that continued through 2016. second, corbett attempted to honor his noseverance tax pledge that had been a core part of his campaign with an alternative mechanism of an impact fee. this would represent the imposition of some annual costs on each drilling site during the early years of operation, set as a fixed annual fee rather than as a percentage of gross value of produced natural gas. it would decline over time despite the productivity of the well and all revenue would be allocated through a formula to various state agencies and local governments where drilling would occur. the animating principle was that this was not a tax but rather a fee to help governments mitigate some of the “impacts” of shale development. a further political attraction was that this fee was likely to be set at a very low level when translated into a percentage of produced natural gas value. it thereby set a de facto rate that was far lower than most state severance taxes at its peak and would both decline and then disappear entirely over time, unlike all existing state severance taxes that remained in force over the full lifetime of production. the impact fee plan also used revenue allocation as a way to build local government support for the fee, potentially serving to create a loyal political constituency that might then oppose any future severance tax. most severance taxes allocate revenues on a statewide basis rather than concentrate them on jurisdictions where drilling occurred. in the case of the impact fee, the only pennsylvania counties, municipalities, and townships that were eligible for any potential revenue were those that hosted drilling operations. the portions of impact fee revenue that would be returned to localities would be allocated leaving money on the table 21 on the basis of energy production. local governments were able to use impact fee funds on a wide range of programs, including road repair and emergency services that were in some way linked to drilling (weber and harleman 2016). local governments, however, would have to make the political decision to actually authorize such a fee rather than the state, with the legislation simply giving them this option and avoiding any direct state responsibility for the levy. therefore, proponents framed this as lacking state political fingerprints, with the fee approval decision made locally. if localities went forward with the impact fee, the state would then collect the revenue but make local allocation contingent on full local compliance with state regulatory provisions, including restraint from any local efforts to add regulatory burdens linked to drilling that violated act 13’s state preemption provisions. this clause was applied almost immediately, with seven local jurisdictions in 2012 failing to receive any impact fee revenue due to state interpretation of some form of noncompliance. these jurisdictions alleged heavy-h anded state government oversight, but they had no recourse despite having levied the impact fee within their boundaries. the impact fee adoption did not quash subsequent debate over severance taxation. the fee did sustain republican support in general, albeit with exceptions in some cases where gop legislators represented districts without shale activity and thereby received relatively little revenue related to drilling in the state. it did little to deter democratic support for a tax, most intensively in areas of the southeastern and south-central portions of pennsylvania that lacked shale and received limited revenue transfer from the fee to localities. nonetheless, there was never a serious effort to put a severance tax onto the legislative agenda for the balance of corbett’s term in office. this reflected unified republican political control of state government and the argument of party leadership that a nontax fee was more than sufficient to cover any adverse impacts of natural gas drilling in the state while being sufficiently modest to give pennsylvania energy producers a financial edge versus alternative state drilling venues. return to divided control in the wolf era corbett made act 13 and his staunch support for expanded natural gas extraction a cornerstone of his 2014 reelection bid. all of the prominent candidates for the democratic nomination endorsed some form of a severance tax, including eventual nominee tom wolf, who promised if elected to support a severance tax that he said could raise up to $1 billion annually (cocklin 2014a, 2014b, 2015). the severance tax issue figured prominently in campaign advertising and candidate debates. in one exchange, corbett emphasized that 22 rachel l. hampton and barry g. rabe the impact fee was already bringing in revenue to state and local governments and that higher taxes would deter future energy investment. wolf argued that “we have a godgiven resource lying beneath our feet; we need to do everything in our power to make sure this benefits pennsylvania. my severance tax is not meant to kill the goose that’s laying the golden egg. i’m just saying, let’s share some of that gold with the people of pennsylvania.” (bravender 2014). wolf won a decisive victory over corbett by a 55% to 45% margin, which seemed likely to propel pursuit of severance tax adoption. however, wolf had no measurable electoral coattails as both chambers of the legislature remained in republican hands and the gop increased its overall margin in the senate. during his first two years in office, wolf repeatedly championed various versions of a severance tax to replace the impact fee, with significant variations in rates that began at 5% on the value of gas at its wellhead in 2015 but increased to 6.5% the following year. this higher rate would have surpassed that of any state east of the mississippi river, though it would have remained below many states to the west of that divide. in 2016, wolf also added a proposed supplement of a volumetric fee that would have also included a 4.7 cent surcharge for every thousand cubic feet and, in effect, assured higher rates when gas prices declined. this suggested some efforts to emulate the tax and fee combination that had long been in place in neighboring west virginia, with considerable industry opposition despite its political durability. wolf demonstrated willingness to adjust the technical terms of the proposal, including rates and the related fee, and generally retained solid but not unanimous support from democratic legislators. he generally favored allocating revenues for education and local governments rather than any longerterm investments through a trust fund. but despite his various adjustments, wolf gained virtually no traction among republicans in either the house or senate, reflecting their steadfast opposition to any extraction tax (woodall 2016). this has resulted in protracted partisan battles, with the lack of agreement on the severance tax leading to an extended failure to adopt a state budget. pennsylvania had considerable precedent for late budget completion but the 2015–2016 delays were unusually long, ultimately lasting for nearly one year. these battles included aggressive use of vetoes by wolf that prevented any spending for certain state government programs, with the severance tax controversy a primary point of contention. wolf would ultimately back down and withdraw the tax proposal in order to secure a 2016 budget accord but vowed to return to this issue in future sessions. the state also faced extended partisan divides over a range of new environmental regulations on drilling operations established by the wolf administration through interpretation of act 13 and related statutes by the state department of environmental protection. leaving money on the table 23 opponents argued that any new severance tax would only compound the added costs imposed by these new regulations. severance tax opponents in the wolf era were particularly emphatic that such a tax could be considered only if natural gas prices eventually rebounded after a period of significant decline during the mid2010s. as in prior periods, some opponents suggested that a tax would never be acceptable whereas others held out the possibility of some reconsideration in the future. divides were also evident over the extent to which pennsylvania should rely on natural gas extraction and related development as a fundamental path for future economic growth or should it pursue economic diversification instead. some republicans were adamant that prices would bounce back and that the state could also lure substantial new manufacturing through tax credits and subsidies linked to new investment that made significant use of natural gas harvested in the keystone state. one such proposal advanced by republican house speaker michael turzai, the keystone energy enhancement act, called for creation of keystone energy zones that would offer highly favorable terms for such investment and arguably transform pennsylvania along the lines of more energy-i ntensive states such as texas. opponents also contended that pennsylvania would lose its competitive edge to neighboring ohio and west virginia in the marcellus and utica shale plays if it followed their precedents and established a severance tax. marcellus shale coalition president david spigelmyer routinely noted in 2015 and 2016 that any severance tax adoption by pennsylvania would trigger a major outmigration of drilling operations to other states, even though they all had some form of severance tax in place. in a representative comment, he observed in 2015 that a state severance tax would make the state “uncompetitive with ohio, texas, and louisiana—china. capital can move like water in pennsylvania. it can move from pennsylvania pretty quickly” (cusick 2015). in particular, he anticipated movement to the immediate west of the state if a tax was adopted, noting that “you can line up at the border and watch rigs move into ohio” (lee 2015). both west virginia and ohio faced severance tax controversies of their own during this period, although neither adopted any changes in established taxes through the end of 2016. in west virginia, democratic governor earl ray tomblin in 2016 lamented plunging severance tax revenues from gas, oil and the state’s iconic fossil fuel of coal and endorsed the idea of some reduction in these taxes in hopes that it might trigger a rebound for extraction. the state senate supported a bill to eliminate a volumetric fee similar to the one wolf proposed for pennsylvania that complements the severance tax. it also supported a reduction in its 5% severance tax on oil, natural gas, and coal 24 rachel l. hampton and barry g. rabe production to 3% over a twoyear period. both of these failed to gain support in the lower house of delegates, though this issue reemerged during the 2016 election and figured to resurface in subsequent years. in ohio, republican governor john kasich argued that ohio’s severance tax, which charges a fixed amount per unit of energy produced regardless of price (20 cents per barrel of oil and three cents per 1,000 square feet of natural gas) and generally ranks among the lowest in the nation, represented a state failure to capture revenue that should be linked to the permanent removal of a natural resource. much like wolf, kasich repeatedly advanced bills with a variation of higher rates between 2011 and 2016, ranging from 1.5% to 6.5%. he proposed that most of the revenue could be used to reduce other taxes, including rates for state personal income taxes. kasich faced significant but not unanimous opposition from members of his own party in the legislature and a pennsylvanialike standoff ensued for several years without resolution, although it did not go so far as to delay budget agreements. in a comment representative of his views, kasich said in 2015 that the current tax system is a “total and complete ripoff to the people of this state” (krebs 2015). in 2016, he vowed frequently to continue his campaign to increase the severance tax and use revenues to provide personal income tax relief. consequently, pennsylvania remained unique in refraining from severance tax adoption but found itself by 2017 nestled in a shale play where neighboring states continued to debate property tax rates and structure during an energy price decline. the question of severance tax adoption remained prominent on pennsylvania’s political agenda as wolf entered the second half of his term in 2017; any further political standoff on this issue would likely only keep it prominent in subsequent election cycles. as a result, pennsylvania and its immediate neighbors posed an important national test of the future political prospects for severance taxes. consequences of pennsylvania exceptionalism and future considerations much like other energyproducing states, pennsylvania has not been immune from boomandbust economic cycles either historically or in the shorter time horizon of the shale era. it continues to face questions about the impact of natural gas development on its economy and environment in both the near and longerterm, with strong parallels to other states and nations that operate energycentered economies. but pennsylvania’s unique stance on severance taxes creates a number of important considerations for the state, both in the near term and in coming decades, as it further explores development of its natural gas supplies. leaving money on the table 25 general revenue foregone first, the lack of a severance tax is costly to the state of pennsylvania in terms of lost potential revenue and the need to use other taxes to cover its budgetary outlays. thus far, the impact fee has generated slightly more than one billion dollars for the state during its first five years of operation, with approximately 40% retained by the state and the remainder allocated to county and local governments. wolf has projected, however, that a 6.5% severance tax would generate $350.9 million in revenue for the 2016/2017 fiscal year, leading up to $507 million for the general fund by the 2020/2021 fiscal year (phillips 2016). the pennsylvania budget and policy center had much higher estimates in 2013, however, reflecting that revenue projections have declined as natural gas prices have dropped markedly (pennsylvania budget and policy center 2013). there are no reliable published estimates of whether pennsylvania secures added drilling and related economic stimulus due to its nontax approach. as in the case of state severance tax revenues, pennsylvania impact fee revenues have declined in recent years. revenues peaked at $226 million in fiscal year 2013, slipped to $188 million for fiscal year 2015, and were projected to drop to an estimated $129 million to $171 million for fiscal year 2016. in addition to the fact that total revenues are considerably lower than most other severance tax states, despite the state’s massive natural gas production (see table 2), impact fee revenue is most abundant in years immediately after drilling begins rather than over the entire production life of each well when the fee is phased out and then eliminated even if drilling continues. so it is susceptible to significant f luctuations as the sheer amount of new drilling moves up and down, as it has in recent years. as a result, revenue production will decline markedly over time despite overall output unless there is a constant pace of new drilling (environmental law institute and washington and jefferson college center for energy policy and management 2014). this consequence is especially considerable in light of pennsylvania’s ongoing budget crisis. other major energyproducing states with a severance tax, such as alaska and north dakota, have also struggled with major deficits, given oil price busts, although these reflect both declining severance tax revenues and the decision to suppress other taxes, given severance tax dependence. in turn, other states that have considerable energy production and a severance tax, such as texas and california, have had less significant budget problems, given their more diversified statewide economies and tax bases (saha and muro 2016). as of 2017, there were no longterm fixes in sight for the pennsylvania budget after a patchwork of increases in tobacco taxes, partial privatization of liquor sales, a onetime tax amnesty program, a loan from a medical malpractice insurance fund, and anticipated expansion 26 rachel l. hampton and barry g. rabe of gambling and related taxes were used to attempt to close an immediate budget gap. earmarked revenue foregone just as pennsylvania is missing out on the opportunity to collect substantial revenues, it is also foregoing opportunities to use them to address negative consequences from drilling or prepare for longerterm challenges. in colorado and north dakota, considerable amounts of severance tax revenue are placed in special funds for related programs such as land reclamation, water conservation, and alternative energy development (rabe and hampton 2015). as pennsylvania budget and policy center officials stated in 2010, “legislative inaction has left the environment unprotected in the marcellus shale region of the state. it has passed the local costs of increased drilling on to state and local taxpayers” (swift 2010). the absence of a severance tax also precludes the possibility of setting aside some portion of oil and gasproduction revenues for longterm uses through the creation of a trust fund. in north dakota, 30% of annual severance tax revenues are deposited in a state legacy fund for investment and gradual allocation once state oil resources have been depleted; other states have continued to experiment with their own versions of this approach (rabe and hampton 2016). the resiliency of severance taxation as a pennsylvania agenda issue the sustained rejection of severance tax proposals over the last decade demonstrates the steep political hurdles to adoption. but it also indicates a kind of resilience for this issue, with an enduring base of political support that is unlikely to disappear. alongside the view that pennsylvania should refrain from severance taxation and use this unique feature to try to expand extraction and related development is a continuing counterargument that the state should attempt to extract some lasting revenue value from the permanent loss of its fossil fuelbased natural resources. this reflects in part a long pennsylvania history with the aftermath of energyproduction booms, including longterm environmental damage linked to extensive coal mining operations that remain a challenge in many parts of the state and a desire to mitigate any potential risks with supplemental revenue. this debate is unlikely to disappear at any point in the near future and would likely continue even if pennsylvania adopted some form of a tax. indeed, public opinion analysis suggests a significant base of public support for some form of a severance tax in the state, a remarkable finding, given the ongoing state political opposition to such a tax and the general lack of public leaving money on the table 27 enthusiasm for new taxes. between february 2014 and february 2016, the muhlenberg institute of public opinion conducted four surveys of pennsylvania residents and found consistently that 62% to 63% of respondents favored the adoption of a severance tax with 25% to 29% opposed and the remainder not sure (see table 4). these surveys also found that respondents were far more likely to say that such a tax would not encourage drilling firms to leave the state, including a 48% to 36% margin in february 2016 (see table 5). this is consistent with earlier survey findings from muhlenberg on this issue, suggesting a sustained majority of support across the last two governorships and periods of both surging and declining natural gas prices (brown et al. 2013). table 5. pennsylvania muhlenberg institute of public opinion survey results, firm drilling questions q: please tell me if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree: increasing taxes on natural gas drillers in pennsylvania will lead drilling firms to leave and so should be avoided year strongly agree somewhat agree somewhat disagree strongly disagree not sure 2011 11% 22% 23% 28% 16% 2012 16% 16% 30% 34% 4% 2015 18% 20% 26% 29% 8% 2016 21% 15% 23% 25% 25% source: muhlenberg college institute of public opinion, fracking related questions, summary 2011–2016 (on file with the authors). table 4. pennsylvania muhlenberg institute of public opinion survey results, severance tax question q: many states have created “severance taxes” in which drillers pay a tax that is based on the value of natural gas and oil that they extract from below the ground. pennsylvania does not currently have such a tax. do you think that pennsylvania should adopt such a tax or not? year should adopt should not adopt not sure/refused february 2014 62% 29% 9% february 2015 63% 25% 13% october 2015 63% 28% 9% february 2016 62% 28% 10% source: muhlenberg college institute of public opinion, fracking related questions, summary 2011–2016 (on file with the authors). 28 rachel l. hampton and barry g. rabe future severance tax prospects a prolonged pattern of suppressed prices for natural gas does not necessarily mean reduced production, given the continued industry success of refining extraction technologies and practices that reduce the sales price necessary to allow them to generate a profit. indeed, pennsylvania natural gas production set a record in 2015, reflecting continued growth in output despite sustained price reductions (cocklin 2016b). in turn, possible expansion of natural gas exports, including liquefaction and transport to other continents, converges with growing domestic demand for the fuel as an alternative to coal and suggests that the national appetite for natural gas is not going to disappear at any discernible future point. moreover, there does not appear to be any political constituency in the state capable of securing a political majority through a campaign to halt or place a new yorklike moratorium on drilling and “leave natural gas in the ground.” consequently, fracking will in all likelihood continue in pennsylvania alongside ongoing debate over regulatory policy and severance taxes. other issues such as the fairness of royalty payments to land owners and the levels of bonds that drillers are required to post have also remained contentious in recent years, including protracted litigation against some of the major gas producing firms (cocklin 2016a). there has also been periodic discussion in the legislature and among local governments to allow localities to impose property taxes on pipelines that run through their jurisdictions, as is allowed in numerous other states. however, the severance tax question remains a central point of contention not just in pennsylvania energy policy circles but in state politics more broadly. in all other gasa nd oilproducing states, the severance tax issue has long since been resolved, leading to taxes that have proven durable for decades and generations in most state cases. in those settings, the discussion of severance taxes links to issues of rates and revenue use. only in pennsylvania does the very question of severance tax adoption remain an open and contentious one. notes 1. california, a top producer of crude oil, also has an unusually low severance tax rate. the state levies what is called an oil and gasproduction assessment that is set each year by the california department of conservation, imposed on each barrel of oil and each 10,000 cubic feet of natural gas produced in the state (california department of conservation 2016). individual counties rather than state authorities, however, are responsible for collecting the ad valorem taxes. california might be the state most similar to pennsylvania in its failure to create a statewide severance tax amid considerable controversy over drilling and simultaneous pursuit of a cap-a ndtrade system to reduce carbon emissions (rabe 2017). in fact, severance tax debates have also simmered in california since the 1990s, leaving money on the table 29 including the most recent major effort to create an oil extraction tax that took place in 2014, with a proposal to allocate revenue for higher education. this generated a considerable constituency among university of california students but ultimately was not adopted (smith and kovitz 2014). 2. for an application of this approach in the case of carbon pricing, see rabe 2016a. references bauers, sandy. 2011. “corbett cheers natural gas drilling.” philadelphia inquirer, march 9. brace, paul. 1993. state government and economic performance. baltimore: johns hopkins university press. bravender, robin. 2014. “gubernatorial hopefuls wrangle over drilling tax.” e&e news, september 23. brown, cassarah. 2013. “state revenues and the natural gas boom: an assessment of state oil and gas production taxes.” denver, co: national conference of state legislatures. brown, erica, kristine hartman, chris borick, barry g. rabe, and thomas ivacko. 2013. “public opinion on fracking: perspectives from michigan and pennsylvania.” ann arbor, mi: center for local, state, and urban policy, gerald r. ford school of public policy, university of michigan. california department of conservation. 2016. assessment process. available at www .conservation.ca.gov/dog/for_operators/pages/assessments.aspx. accessed january 4, 2017. cocklin, jamison. 2014a. “midterm elections a mixed bag for appalachian basin’s oil, gas industry.” natural gas intelligence, november 5. available at www.naturalgasintel .com/articles/100311-midterm-elections-a-mixed-bag-for-appalachian-basins-oil gasindustry. accessed january 4, 2017. ———. 2014b. “xto chief critiques appalachian states’ taxes.” natural gas intelligence, september 25. available at www.naturalgasintel.com/articles/99831xto-c hiefcalls -appalachian-state-regulations-outdated. accessed january 4, 2017. ———. 2015. “with wolf ’s inauguration, questions loom for pennsylvania natgas industry.” natural gas intelligence, january 16. available at www.naturalgasintel .com/articles/101063-w ithwolfsinaugurationquestions-l oomfor-p ennsylvania natgasindustry. accessed january 4, 2017. ———. 2016a. “pennsylvania lawmaker proposes costlier bonds to cover shale wells.” natural gas intelligence, august 30. available at www.naturalgasintel.com/ articles/107580pennsylvania-l awmakerproposescostlierbonds-t ocovershale wells%20for%20further%20discussion. accessed january 4, 2017. ———. 2016b. “pennsylvania shale production increased again last year,” natural gas intelligence, february 22. available at www.naturalgasintel.com/articles/105435 -pennsylvania-shale-production-increased-again-last-year. accessed january 4, 2017. considine, timothy j., nicholas b. considine, and robert watson. 2016. “economic and environmental impacts of fracking: a case study of the marcellus shale.” international review of environmental and resource economics 9 (3–4): 209–244. cusick, marie. 2015. “déjà vu all over again: why the shale gas tax keeps flaming out.” stateimpact, november 25. available at https://stateimpact.npr.org/ pennsylvania/2015/11/25/deja-vu-all-over-again-why-the-shale-gas-tax-keeps flamingout/. accessed january 4, 2017. 30 rachel l. hampton and barry g. rabe eisinger, peter k. 1989. the rise of the entrepreneurial state: state and local economic development policy in the united states. madison: the university of wisconsin press. environmental law institute and washington and jefferson college center for energy policy and management. 2014. getting the boom without the bust: guiding southwestern pennsylvania through shale gas development. available at https://www.eli.org/ researchreport/getting-b oomwithout-b ustguidingsouthwestern-p ennsylvania -through-shale-gas-development. accessed january 4, 2017. groh, cliff, and gregg erickson. 2012. “the improbable but true story of how the alaska permanent fund and the alaska permanent fund dividend came to be.” in alaska’s permanent fund dividend: examining its suitability as a model, ed. karl widerquist and michael howard. new york: palgrave macmillan, 15–40. hansen, susan b. 1989. “targeting economic development: comparative state perspectives.” publius: the journal of federalism 19 (spring): 47–62. harrison, kathryn, ed. 2006. racing to the bottom. vancouver: university of british columbia press. krebs, natalie. 2015. “no taxation without (oil and gas) representation.” citybeat, july 29. available at www.citybeat.com/news/article/13002033/notaxationwithoutoil andgasrepresentation. accessed january 4, 2017. kunce, mitch. 2003. “effectiveness of severance tax incentives in the u.s. oil industry.” international tax and public finance 10 (september): 565–587. lee, mike. 2015. “pa. senate wrangles over whether to tax industry during a downturn.” e&e news, june 2. mieszkowski, peter, and ronald soligo. 2012. “united states.” in oil and gas in federal systems, ed. george anderson. new york: oxford university press, 310–338. moss. todd, ed. 2012. the governor’s solution. washington, dc: center for global development. pennsylvania budget and policy center. 2013. “pa.’s marcellus impact fee comes up short.” available at http://pennbpc.org/pa-marcellus-impact-fee-comes-short. accessed january 4, 2017. phillips, susan. 2016. “wolf proposes 6.5 percent tax on marcellus shale.” state impact, february 9. available at https://stateimpact.npr.org/pennsylvania/2016/02/09/wolf -proposes-6-5-percent-tax-on-marcellus-shale/. accessed january 4, 2017. powers, carol. 1982. “state taxation of energy resources.” boston college environmental affairs law review 10 (2): 503–564. rabe, barry g. 2007. “race to the top: the expanding role of u.s. state renewable portfolio standards.” sustainable development law and policy 7 (spring): 10–16, 72. ———. 2016a. “the durability of carbon cap-a ndtrade.” governance 29 (january): 103–119. ———. 2016b. “racing to the top, the bottom, or the middle of the pack? the evolving state government role in environmental protection.” in environmental policy: new directions for the twentyfirst century, 9th rev. ed., ed. norman j. vig and michael e. kraft. washington, d.c.: cq press, 33–57. ———. 2017. the politics of carbon pricing. forthcoming. rabe, barry g., and chris borick. 2013. “conventional politics for unconventional drilling.” review of policy research 30 (may): 321–339. rabe, barry g., and rachel l. hampton. 2015. “taxing fracking: the politics of state severance taxes in the shale era.” review of policy research 32 (july): 389–412. ———. 2016. “trusting in the future: the reemergence of state trust funds in the shale era.” energy research and social science 20 (october): 117–127. leaving money on the table 31 rachel l. hampton is a third-year law student at the university of michigan law school. she is also a current policy analyst at the center for local, state, and urban policy (closup), housed in the gerald r. ford school of public policy at the university of michigan. her research focuses on state oil and gas severance taxes, as well as state trust funds tied to energy taxes. rice, carolyn. 2016. “the struggle for shared governance in hydraulic fracking policy: an interstate comparison of texas, oklahoma, and colorado.” ann arbor, mi: center for local, state, and urban policy, gerald r. ford school of public policy, university of michigan. robinson township v. commonwealth of pennsylvania. 2012. 52 a.3d 463 (pa. cmwlth.). ross, michael. 2012. the oil curse. princeton, nj: princeton university press. saha, devashree, and mark muro. 2016. “permanent trust funds: funding economic change with fracking revenues.” brookings institution, metropolitan policy program. smith, taryn, and bo kovitz. 2014. “uc students lobby higher education policies at state capital.” daily californian, april 7. available at www.dailycal.org/2014/04/07/ uc-students-lobby-higher-education-policies-state-capitol/. accessed january 4, 2017. swift, robert. 2010. “rendell calls gas severance tax dead this year.” times tribune, october 22. available at http://thetimestribune.com/news/rendellcalls-g as -severance-tax-dead-this-year-1.1052137. accessed january 4, 2017. u.s. bureau of labor statistics. 2014. the marcellus shale gas boom in pennsylvania: employment and wage trends. available at www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2014/article/the -marcellus-shale-gas-boom-in-pennsylvania.htm. accessed january 4, 2017. u.s. energy information administration. 2014a. rankings: coal production, 2014 (thousand short tons). available at www.eia.gov/state/rankings/?sid=pa#series/48. accessed january 4, 2017. ———. 2014b. table c10: energy consumption estimates by enduse section, ranked by state, 2014. available at www.eia.gov/state/seds/data.cfm?incfile=/state/seds/ sep_sum/html/rank_use.html&sid=us. accessed january 4, 2017. ———. 2016a. number of producing gas wells. available at www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_ prod_wells_s1_a.htm. accessed january 4, 2017. ———. 2016b. pennsylvania natural gas gross withdrawals. available at www.eia.gov/ dnav/ng/hist/n9010pa2a.htm. accessed january 4, 2017. ———. 2016c. rankings: crude oil production, june 2016 (thousand barrels). available at www.eia.gov/state/rankings/#/series/46. accessed january 4, 2017. weber, jeremy, and max harleman. 2015/2016. “shale development, impact fees, and municipal finances in pennsylvania.” policy brief. center for metropolitan studies, university of pittsburgh. wile, rob. 2012. “153 years ago today, an unemployed sick man drilled the first modern oil well.” business insider, august 27. available at www.businessinsider.com/ edwin-drake-first-modern-oil-well-153-years-ago-2012-8. accessed january 4, 2017. woodall, candy. 2016. “does gov. tom wolf still want a severance tax on drilling?” pennlive, january 25. available at www.pennlive.com/news/2016/01/other_states_ with_severance_ta.html. accessed january 4, 2017. yergin, daniel. 2011. the quest: energy, security, and the remaking of the modern world. new york: penguin press. 32 rachel l. hampton and barry g. rabe barry g. rabe, phd, is the j. ira and nicki harris family professor of public policy at the gerald r. ford school of public policy at the university of michigan. he is also a fellow of the national academy of public administration and a non-resident senior fellow at the brookings institution. rabe examines policy at the intersection of energy development and environmental protection in federal systems and has done extensive work on federal and state climate policy implementation. he is currently completing a book on the politics of carbon pricing and is a member of the american academy of arts and sciences project on energy policy durability, focused particularly on the clean air act. this article is one of a series of publications co-authored with rachel l. hampton on the political economy of energy severance taxes and revenue use. structure bookmarks severance taxes pennsylvania exceptionalism future severance tax prospects notes references commonwealth matters commonwealth matters j. wesley leckrone editor-in-chief c ovid-19 has changed education, at least for the short term. the outbreak of the coronovirus has caused most institutions of higher education in the united states to move all course content online. the disruption has forced instructors to revamp their curriculum in the middle of the semester on very short notice. this has caused a scramble to find pedagogical resources that foster critical thinking and encourage debate in course discussion groups. commonwealth: a journal of pennsylvania politics and policy has produced this special virtual issue on "controversial issues in pennsylvania politics and policy" as a resource to help with the move to online instruction. the content is composed of previously published "commonwealth forums". most of these are approximately 500 word pro-con arguments about an issue of importance to state politics. they are followed by resources for further information. all but two of the works come from our edited book series pennsylvania politics and policy: a commonwealth reader, volumes 1 and 2. they were written by myself and co-author michelle atherton of temple university. the other two pieces are longer debates on the structural budget deficit and property taxes that were written by outside experts. i would like to thank temple university press for allowing us to publish material from the commonwealth reader and for their help in getting this special virtual issue online in an expeditious fashion. commonwealth forum: law enforcement in the twentieth century commonwealth, volume 20, issue 1 (2018). © 2018 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/com.v20i2-3.185. all rights reserved. commonwealth forum law enforcement in the twentyfirst century: partnering to combat the opioid overdose epidemic josh shapiro attorney general of pennsylvania commonwealth special issue editor mark nordenberg invited pennsylvania’s attorney general, josh shapiro, to discuss the steps that his office is taking to address the opioid crisis. as the state’s chief law enforcement officer, mr. shapiro has taken a multipronged approach to the epidemic that includes partnering with other government agencies and nonprofits. the following article outlines the policies undertaken by the office of the attorney general to combat opioid abuse in 2017. the opioid epidemic is a national health and safety crisis, one that is hitting pennsylvania particularly hard. in 2016, over 4,600 pennsylvanians suffered fatal overdoses, a 37% increase from the year before. pennsylvania ranked fourth out of all 50 states in overdoses per capita in 2016, the last year for which full data is available. overdose is now the number one accidental killer in pennsylvania, surpassing car accidents. this epidemic, which claims an average of 15 lives per day in our commonwealth, is driven by prescription opioid pain medications, heroin, and dangerous synthetic drugs like fentanyl. as i have traveled across pennsylvania, i have heard so many stories from mothers, fathers, sisters, brothers, and even children about the loved ones they commonwealth forum 7 have lost to the scourge of heroin and opioids. my heart goes out to them, and i keep them in mind every day as i work to fight this epidemic affecting every type of community across our commonwealth. law enforcement is on the front lines of responding to this crisis. as pennsylvania’s attorney general, the opioid crisis is my number one priority—not because i want it to be, but because it has to be. we need to go beyond the toughoncrime approach of the past and use every tool in our toolkit to combat this epidemic. we need to try innovative approaches and see what works, but we are also compelled to act now, because the human toll of this epidemic is simply too much to bear. multidisciplinary, preventative approach when this epidemic was still in its infancy and i was serving as chairman of the montgomery county commission, i had a conversation with a local police chief who told me that, while his officers were fighting this every day, police alone could not fix this growing problem. the people his officers were encountering needed treatment and other medical and behavioral health services, not jail. shortly after that conversation, i led the creation of a multidisciplinary task force that was charged with developing a strategy to combat the growing problem. one of the key recommendations of that strategy was to permit everyone—not just first responders—to have access to the overdose reversal drug naloxone. in 2015, our county medical director issued a standing order, allowing any person to obtain naloxone at any pharmacy in montgomery county. pennsylvania soon followed suit, with the physician general issuing a statewide standing order. this task force also highlighted the connections between substance use disorder and crime. the fact that individuals in our prisons were not receiving adequate drug treatment only increased their likelihood of recidivism. in response, we increased spending on treatment within our county prison. while these steps did not cure this epidemic, they saved lives and changed our thinking. this multidisciplinary approach, which brings together law enforcement, medical professionals, treatment providers, government leaders, and social service providers in a collaborative, allhandson-de ck manner, has shaped my thinking. any one idea or strategy alone is not enough—we need to attack this scourge at every stage of the cycle of addiction and from every angle if we are going to be successful in addressing this crisis. 8 josh shapiro reducing the availability of prescription opioids the root cause of this crisis is the wide availability and overprescription of powerful opioid medications. eighty percent of people who are addicted to heroin started out by using prescription opioid painkillers. if there was ever truly a gateway drug, it is prescription opioids like oxycontin and percocet. it is critical that we reduce the availability of these powerful medications that all too often are abused and lead to addiction. holding opioid manufacturers accountable americans report the same levels of pain now as we did in 1999. yet sales of prescription opioids quadrupled from 1999 to 2014. in 2015, u.s. doctors wrote over 300 million pain prescriptions. the wide availability of these powerful opioid medications is one of the leading drivers of this epidemic. because of their unique civil enforcement and consumer protection authority, state attorneys general are taking the lead in holding drug manufacturers responsible for their role in this crisis. over the last few years, widespread allegations have arisen that drug manufacturers and distributors may have engaged in illegal sales and marketing practices, similar to the tobacco industry in the last century, that have inflated sales to the detriment of public health. to investigate these allegations and pursue any claims that may arise from this effort in the most effective way possible, the office of attorney general (oag) is leading a bipartisan coalition of 41 state attorneys general in three separate multistate investigations. if this coalition finds that manufacturers deliberately oversold the use and effectiveness of these drugs, undersold the dangers, or otherwise misled the public to boost their profits, then they must be held accountable. even if no wrongdoing is found, this investigation sends a clear warning signal to the entire industry that boosting profits by creating unnecessary opioid sales will not be tolerated. we hope this signal will help reduce unnecessary prescriptions, discourage any future illegal behavior, and cause manufacturers to market their drugs even more carefully than they already do. addressing overprescription through education and behavioral change our national obsession with opioids is without equal. despite having less than 5% of the world’s population, the united states consumes over 80% of the world’s supply of oxycodone. the fact is, our doctors prescribe too many opioids too frequently to too many patients. commonwealth forum 9 we need to stop the flood of pills at its source by educating doctors to change their behavior and curb their prescribing practices. most doctors have not been overprescribing deliberately; many times, doctors prescribe medically unnecessary opioids because they truly want to help their patients feel better. people whom they care about come into their offices in serious pain, and the quickest way to alleviate that pain can be through powerful opioids. many doctors, medical schools, and associations like the pennsylvania medical society have recognized the need for more physician training, and oag is partnering in that effort. additionally, doctors and hospitals are rated on pain management and patient satisfaction, which affects their ability to compete for patients with other doctors and hospitals. under this rating scheme, doctors are overly incentivized to prescribe opioids. we need to realign doctors’ incentives so that they look to alternative pain management therapies instead of opioids. leveraging insurance companies to curb overprescription, promote alternative treatments, and expand access to treatment insurers can and should be our next line of defense against overprescription. most people will not fill prescriptions that are not covered by insurance, and many doctors will not write prescriptions that they know their patients won’t fill. by denying claims for opioids that are not medically necessary or exceed the amount necessary to treat a patient’s condition, insurers can significantly influence the behavior of both patients and doctors and check the proliferation of opioids. oag collaborated with medical professionals and insurance leaders to develop a 10point plan to help insurers do their part to address this crisis. the plan calls for limiting coverage for firstinstance opioid prescriptions beyond five days, requiring preauthorization for opioid prescriptions, and diligently reviewing claims to make sure opioid prescriptions are medically necessary. patients also need greater access to alternative, nonopioid pain treatments, which are often not covered by insurance. opioid medications only mask pain, but alternative treatments like physical therapy can reduce shortterm pain and also help correct the underlying conditions to reduce and eliminate longterm pain symptoms. a number of leading pennsylvania insurers, including independence blue cross, have implemented some of these recommendations, but we need more insurers across the commonwealth to step up and do their part. 10 josh shapiro community-based prevention the dangers of overprescription extend beyond the original patient to whom drugs are prescribed. studies indicate that 60% of patients who are prescribed opioids end up with leftover pills when their treatment is over. these leftover pills often end up contributing to the addiction of others: over 70% of people who misuse prescription opioids get them from friends’ or relatives’ medicine cabinets. reducing the number of prescriptions will help keep these drugs out of our medicine cabinets in the first place, but we also need solutions for those who already have them lying around before their longforgotten prescriptions lead to another person’s addiction. unused pills must be disposed of properly. throwing them in the garbage or flushing them down the toilet are bad options, as doing so will cause the pills’ chemicals to seep into our soil and water supplies, which in turn damages our crops, our livestock, and our health. pills must be neutralized before they are thrown away. oag has two programs to help people across pennsylvania safely dispose of their unused medications—opioids or otherwise. prescription drug takeback boxes the prescription drug takeback box program is a partnership between my office, the national guard, the pennsylvania commission on crime and delinquency, and the pennsylvania district attorneys association. leveraging resources from all of these agencies, we have installed drug disposal boxes at locations throughout the commonwealth. as of april 2018, there were 694 permanent takeback boxes across the commonwealth’s 67 counties, with each county having at least one. anyone can simply drop their unused medications into the secure boxes, which are later emptied by professional staff who ensure that the drugs are disposed of properly and safely. in 2016, 26 tons of unused medications were disposed of in these drop boxes. in 2017, we collected over 43 tons. important steps that oag plans to take as we continually improve our response to this epidemic are to increase the number and availability of take back boxes and to increase the public’s awareness not only of the existence of the boxes, but also of their responsibility to properly dispose of their unused medications. drug disposal pouches due to their limited availability, not every community has access to a take back box. this is especially true in rural communities. people who do not live commonwealth forum 11 near a takeback box still need options for safely disposing of their unused medications. in response, oag launched a new drug disposal pouch initiative in 2017. the program is distributing 300,000 safe drug disposal pouches to pharmacies and palliative care facilities in 17 counties that are underserved by the takeback box program. under oag’s program, pouches can be obtained by anyone at no cost, even without a prescription, at participating pharmacies. they are also automatically given to anyone with an acute (30 days or less) prescription for schedule ii narcotics (a category that includes the most dangerous opioid medications). additionally, hospice and homecare workers will distribute pouches to patients; this is an area of particular need, given that family members are left with unwanted medications after a loved one passes away. the pouches are easy to use: all a person has to do is place up to 45 pills in a pouch, add some warm water, and shake. the pouch neutralizes the chemicals in the pills, making the pouch safe to throw in the trash. all told, these bags can take 1.35 million pills out of our communities. to study the effectiveness of this program, oag has partnered with the pennsylvania medical society and researchers at the university of pittsburgh medical school. if it proves effective, oag will seek to build on and expand the program. the takeback box and drug pouch programs highlight the reality that law enforcement cannot root out the sources of addiction alone. it will take close collaboration with other government agencies, experts in the field, and public health organizations to develop and implement solutions that have a meaningful impact on our skyrocketing rates of addiction and overdose. enhancing public education efforts oag’s public outreach team is working to help every pennsylvanian understand the dangers of opioid addiction. our office of public engagement has given dozens of presentations across the commonwealth, connecting with thousands of people—from schoolage children through seniors. the office is also partnering with public health and communications experts to update its educational materials and curriculum to make sure they are relevant to the current crisis and resonate with our target audiences. our office is also undertaking a major campus safety initiative that is seeking solutions specific to campus environments by hosting collaborative roundtable discussions on sexual assault, alcohol abuse, opioid addiction, and mental health treatment. input and participation is being sought from campus administrators, local law enforcement, campus police, social service 12 josh shapiro providers, students, survivors, and other stakeholders. our goal is to create a set of recommendations for colleges and their communities to implement to reduce the impact of all of these issues on students and their communities. policy solutions for the first time, oag has staff dedicated to identifying new policies and strategizing implementation for the entire office. our office of policy and planning meets regularly with community groups and key stakeholders to learn about emerging policy ideas and to better understand how existing policies are impacting communities on the ground. they also connect with other government agencies at all levels to share ideas and find new opportunities for collaboration. expanding access to treatment at the center of our multidisciplinary approach is the understanding that addiction is a disease, not a crime. but accessing treatment for this disease can be exceedingly challenging. the need for inpatient treatment far exceeds the availability of beds. the number of physicians licensed to dispense medication-a ssisted treatments (mats) is highly regulated, and the number of patients they may treat is limited. for pennsylvanians who are struggling with opioid addiction, getting access to treatment can be the difference between life and death. that’s why oag is working with insurers, members of congress, and state attorneys general to expand access to treatment for those fighting addiction. expanding insurance coverage of substance use disorder treatment in addition to steps to reduce overprescription, oag’s 10point plan for insurers calls for increased coverage of addiction treatment, medication-a ssisted treatment (mats), and mental health treatment. mats are vital to this effort. patients who receive mats (such as suboxone, methadone, and vivitrol) are 75% less likely to die from overdose than those who do not. unfortunately, mats are not readily available. in pennsylvania, 40% of people suffering from opioid addiction have no access to suboxone treatment. pennsylvania’s centers for excellence, instituted by governor wolf, have significantly expanded outpatient treatment options for those insured through medicaid. expansion of coverage for these services by insurers would similarly expand access for pennsylvanians relying on private insurance. commonwealth forum 13 lifting the outdated medicaid 16bed limit on inpatient treatment while private insurers cover large numbers of americans, the single biggest payer in our system is medicaid, which provides coverage for lowincome americans and individuals with disabilities. unfortunately, medicaid has a key, outdated provision that severely limits the number of inpatient beds available for substance use disorder treatment. part of medicaid is the institutions for mental disease (imd) exclusion, which prohibits medicaid from paying for treatment at “institutions for mental disease” that had more than 16 beds for overnight or residential patients. it also places a cap on how long a patient can stay in a treatment facility. this exclusion was written into the original version of medicaid in 1965 as a way to stop the proliferation of large, staterun mental health institutions. these institutions, colloquially known as asylums, were often overcrowded, inhumane, and ineffective. their eventual closures were celebrated by mental health advocates, as mental health is most appropriately treated in communitybased settings, rather than isolated inpatient settings. an unfortunate side effect of the imd exclusion is that substance use disorder treatment facilities ended up being classified as “institutions for mental disease.” unlike mental health, though, many substance use disorders are best treated in inpatient residential settings, thanks to their ability to restrict their patients from accessing drugs. limiting substance use treatment facilities to such small sizes has greatly reduced the economic incentives to operate them; as a result, there are too few treatment options in our communities. oag has been a leader in advocating for the elimination of the imd exclusion for substance use disorder treatment. we have partnered with pennsylvania congressman brian fitzpatrick to build support for legislation that would remove the size limitation on these facilities and the cap on length of stay, and i have enlisted support from my fellow state attorneys general in this cause. thirtyeight state attorneys general have crossed state and party lines to support this commonsense policy change, and it is now official policy of the national association of attorneys general. if passed by congress, this bill would greatly increase the amount and quality of treatment available for substance use disorder. addressing prescription drug diversion at some point during the course of addiction, the users make the switch from legally obtained opioids to illicit opioids. of course, drug dealers on the streets aren’t the only ones fueling the trade of illegal drugs. sadly, there are doctors, nurses, pharmacists, and other medical professionals who abuse their access 14 josh shapiro to prescription narcotics by “diverting” them from legal to illegal uses. diversion can take many forms, from writing fraudulent prescriptions to outright theft. diversion cases are a new area of focus for oag and for law enforcement generally. this is due to the unique circumstances of the opioid epidemic. eighty percent of people who are addicted to heroin started out by using prescription opioid painkillers. past drug addiction crises had no such legal source to fuel them. in response, oag is amplifying our diversion efforts. we have created a new unit focused on diversion cases, with 28 dedicated agents. our medicaid fraud and insurance fraud sections are also focusing on diversion when it is connected to their primary areas of enforcement. this new focus has already paid dividends. oag increased the number of diversion arrests from 125 in 2016 to 216 in 2017, a 72% increase. oag is also finding new ways to leverage pennsylvania’s prescription drug monitoring program (discussed further below) to identify and investigate individuals who may be engaging in diversion. leveraging the prescription drug monitoring program to combat diversion in 2014, pennsylvania enacted its prescription drug monitoring program (pdmp). this statewide system requires prescribers (usually doctors) and dispensers (usually pharmacists) to check a patient’s history before writing or filling a prescription, as well as to upload new prescriptions for each patient. with the appropriate safeguards on privacy in place, pennsylvania’s pdmp has created a vital check on overprescription, and is now a key tool in law enforcement’s effort to crack down on diversion. thanks to the pdmp, it is now more difficult for patients to “doctor shop” or illegally obtain more prescription drugs than they were prescribed. it also makes it nearly impossible to fill the same prescription at multiple pharmacies. data in the pdmp can be used for law enforcement purposes in limited circumstances. pursuant to a valid court order, oag can access the data to identify individuals who are illegally obtaining, prescribing, or dispensing opioid medication. oag has used this access to forge new partnerships with federal, state, and local law enforcement partners with whom we share data in appropriate situations. pdmps are a national movement. every state except missouri operates its own pdmp. (the missouri governor issued an executive order instituting a pdmp on july 17, 2017, but it is not yet operational.) they have proven effective. one study showed that new york’s system, which has been in effect commonwealth forum 15 since 2012, has reduced opioid prescriptions and has caused prescription opioid overdose deaths to stop increasing. between 2010 and 2015, prescriptions decreased 18% nationwide. the next evolution is to make these systems interoperable across states. until state pdmps can talk to one another effectively, people will still be able to cross state lines to game the system. this problem is particularly acute for pennsylvania, since our two largest cities are both close to the borders of two other states. targeted, collaborative criminal enforcement most pennsylvanians suffering from addiction ultimately turn to heroin and other street drugs because of their low cost. this is the point where law enforcement plays its most direct role. oag’s approach to criminal enforcement relies on targeted enforcement in close collaboration with other law enforcement agencies at all levels of government, targeting the flow of illegal drugs into our communities and the diversion of legal medications into illicit markets. we are making a conscious break from the past by prioritizing our enforcement efforts on the criminals benefitting from this illicit trade, rather than those who are grappling with the illness of addiction, and by strategically deploying our limited resources. collaborative criminal enforcement cooperation with local law enforcement agencies is the bedrock of our collaborative efforts. these are truly partnerships of equals. local law enforcement brings the aforementioned volume of resources and close understanding of their communities; in turn, oag brings knowledge of statewide trends, sophisticated technical resources, and centralized coordination. the primary form of these partnerships in drug law is oag’s statelocal task forces. agents embedded in each of our regions partner with county detectives, state troopers, and local police to target major drug operations within and across jurisdictions. oag drug strike force attorneys collaborate with local district attorneys to prosecute these cases. these partnerships regularly result in enormous successes. in 2016, these task forces combined to make 1,373 arrests. many of these arrests come from major operations. in april of 2017, for example, oag initiated a major drug bust in southwestern pennsylvania that ended with 33 arrests. oag collaborated with 18 different police forces from two different counties in the region. no one agency could have executed this alone. this serious source of heroin could only be stopped with strong collaboration. 16 josh shapiro oag also convenes an investigative grand jury that has the power to issue subpoenas and recommend criminal charges. while some counties have their own investigating grand juries, many do not. in addition to having the ability to help dismantle statewide drug organizations, oag’s grand jury can be used as a resource for local law enforcement agencies that would not otherwise have access to one. drug trafficking is almost never confined to the borders of one state. however, gaps in enforcement can occur when criminal activity crosses state lines. oag works closely with fellow state attorneys general to close these gaps and to stop interstate drug pipelines. for instance, oag worked with new york attorney general eric schneiderman’s office to close a drug pipeline running from the catskill mountains in new york into pike county in pennsylvania. we have also worked with west virginia attorney general patrick morrisey’s staff to address crossborder traffic into pennsylvania counties like greene, fayette, and washington. and we have even worked with michigan attorney general bill schuette’s office to close off a pipeline that crosses lake erie from michigan into our commonwealth. federal law enforcement also plays a crucial role in stopping both interstate and international trafficking operations. to combat the inflows from overseas, oag works closely with the fbi, dea, doj, homeland security, uscis, and other federal law enforcement agencies that have immense resources and experience working with these types of cases. oag agents are embedded with the dea, fbi, and homeland security on drug and other investigations. these embedded agents assist federal agencies by helping to target drug trafficking organizations that are most harmful to pennsylvanians. for example, in 2017, oag and the fbi engaged in a sevenmonth investigation into fentanyl and carfentanil coming from china into allegheny, beaver, and butler counties. that effort resulted in the arrest of 18 people, including the ringleader of the operation. additionally, over four kilograms of fentanyl, substantial amounts of carfentanil, six vehicles, four firearms, and over a million dollars in cash were seized. targeted enforcement to reduce the supply of heroin and illegal opioids, oag is focusing its enforcement efforts on those who move high volumes of drug product. to do so, we are using intelligence gathering and data sharing to identify major supply corridors and to strategically deploy resources. while these corridors often line up with major highways (such as interstate 76 connecting philadelphia, harrisburg, and pittsburgh), some routes are counterintuitive at first glance. for example, figure 1 shows that philadelphia f u o ae ur , blar nee y g nerott f a e o ciff a o inavly nsne y p d b elip mo c( .ainavly ns en n p ihti g w nikciffa g tr ur l dagell r i s fo r do ) .i nr or tio r c agtio sj ea v m n i. 1 sctie gu r ocraif n ).noitagitsevn s i citocra f n u o ae ur , blar nee y g nerott f a e o ciff a o inavly nsne y p d b elip mo c . (ainavly ns en to p n g i ni mo g c nikciffar g t ur l dagell r i s fo r doirro r c oja m 2 . erug fi commonwealth forum 19 is the primary source for the scranton/wilkesbarre area even though allentown, which is also a significant source for much of the state, is far closer geographically. similarly, figure 2 shows an unexpected outofstate source. new york city naturally feeds the eastern half of pennsylvania, but it also serves as a direct corridor to pittsburgh and the western half of the state. additionally, it is surprising that baltimore serves as a major source for pittsburgh but not for philadelphia, which is much closer. by better understanding these corridors and strategically attacking those who use them, law enforcement is better able to close off these routes and reduce the sheer volume of drugs in our communities. combatting fentanyl through deterrence deterrence does play a role in our strategy, particularly when it comes to fentanyl. this drug is deadly: it can cause adverse symptoms just by contact with the skin, and accidental inhalation can cause overdose. it can be sold by itself or added to heroin and other drugs. but when users take fentanyl without knowing, the risk of overdose skyrockets. it is also a major risk to law enforcement and other first responders who may inadvertently come into contact with it. fentanyl and fentanylrelated substances (such as carfentanil, which is 5,000 times as strong as fentanyl) were relatively rare as recently as 2013. however, their prevalence has skyrocketed since then; according to dea data, fentanyl was found in less than 1,000 drug seizures in 2013. in 2014, that number nearly quintupled to over 4,600 seizures. by 2015, it was found in over 14,000 seizures, and in 2016 it was found in well over 30,000 seizures. to deter dealers from trafficking this exceptionally deadly drug, oag has charged dealers with drug delivery resulting in death—a thirddegree felony that can result in sentences of up to 40 years in prison—in select cases. through the first half of 2017, oag has employed this charge seven times, focusing on cases involving nonaddict dealers and prioritizing those who may be lacing their product with fentanyl or other dangerous additives. recovery-oriented methods the science is clear that those suffering from substance use disorder do not use drugs because they want to, but because drugs have become a physical necessity like food and water. society at large is beginning to understand the need to prioritize treatment, because arresting someone does not cure them 20 josh shapiro of their disease. the fact that we refer to today’s drug crisis as an “epidemic,” a distinctly medical term, is a subtle but important step toward treating those suffering from addiction as victims rather than criminals. this fundamental shift in thinking informs oag’s approach to combatting the opioid epidemic. there is a growing body of evidence showing that treatment is an incredibly efficient and effective crimeprevention measure: every dollar spent on treatment saves three dollars on crime reduction. for every 100 patients receiving methadone treatment, there are 12 fewer robberies, 57 fewer breakandenters, and 56 fewer auto thefts. a year of treatment costs an average of $4,000, compared to over $22,000 for a year of incarceration, making it a fiscally responsible strategy as well. oag implements a recoveryoriented approach in several ways. first, our agents and prosecutors prioritize arrests and prosecution of dealers and those involved in the illegal diversion of prescription drugs, not those who suffer from substance use disorder. we recognize that even low-l evel dealers who sell small quantities of drugs to make enough money to satisfy their own addictions are better served with treatment than incarceration. we are also looking to test new ways to leverage our agents’ presence in the community to connect more people with treatment. one program that has proven successful at the local level is the police assisted addiction and recovery initiative (paari). this model started in massachusetts and has been adopted by local law enforcement agencies across the country, including the police departments in bensalem township and berwick here in pennsylvania. agencies that implement paari build networks of treatment providers; then, when they come across someone who needs treatment, they can immediately help to find them a bed in a treatment facility rather than arrest them. while this process is most easily executed by local law enforcement (thanks to their extensive connections with and presence in their local communities), oag is exploring ways to implement some of paari’s principles into our statewide efforts. law enforcement’s frustrations even with all of these collaborations, law enforcement does not have nearly enough workforce to fight the opioid crisis, particularly when it must continue to fulfill its broader public safety mandate. of course, that frustration is common to nearly every government agency; gaps in enforcement or services are wellknown, but the revenue simply isn’t there to address them. the more pressing frustration is the lack of resources for the personnel that we do have. opioid overdose is so common and so pervasive that every commonwealth forum 21 single first responder, including police officers, must carry the overdose reversal drug naloxone. naloxone is expensive, particularly the preferred brand name narcan, which allows for safe and easy delivery to an overdose victim via nasal spray. oag has prioritized providing all of our agents with narcan, but not all law enforcement agencies can afford to do so. this can mean that an overdose victim’s chances of survival are left to a game of russian roulette, with the winners responded to by officers carrying naloxone, and the losers responded to by officers not carrying naloxone. it is important to remember that naloxone is not an addiction treatment; its only function is to reverse an overdose. it does nothing to address the underlying addiction. so even when an officer is able to stop an overdose with naloxone, treatment must be the next link in the chain to recovery. we have found that link too often missing. there are not enough treatment providers to handle the massive increase in demand for their services. only 11% of people who need specialized addiction treatment have access to it. this is true both in urban areas (where large populations mean that small increases in addiction rates cause enormous increases in the number of people needing services) and in rural areas (where a historical lack of addiction problems has left many communities without reasonable access to treatment options). a person who is revived with naloxone but has no treatment options will almost certainly resume using opioids. often, they will overdose again. this can lead to repeated revivals of the same victim by the same law enforcement personnel. officers and first responders have even revived the same individual multiple times in the same day. understandably, these officers are getting frustrated, increasingly voicing their concerns. officers’ “revival fatigue” is a serious issue. they know that addiction is a disease, and that the people they revive are only using these drugs out of necessity. they know that each person’s recovery path is unique, and that it may take multiple overdoses before they are ready, willing, and able to seek treatment. and they know that it may take many courses of treatment before recovery is achieved. but it is human nature to grow frustrated with repeated actions that do not appear to result in any meaningful change. while law enforcement needs to resist sliding into revival fatigue, we also need better solutions for treatment and prevention. we need more treatment, but we may also need new tools to connect people to the treatment that is available, which may include changes to pennsylvania’s good samaritan law, increased use of drug courts, mandatory meetings with social service providers following an overdose, or new civil procedures that allow family members to appeal to the courts to impose treatment on a loved one who needs it. 22 josh shapiro conclusion part of oag’s role as the chief state law enforcement agency is to serve as leaders, both within law enforcement and in the community at large. we have the duty and ability to build strong collaborations, to implement innovative practices in every area in which we work, and to help other agencies implement successful practices. nowhere is the need for oag’s leadership more apparent than with the opioid crisis. despite all of these efforts, law enforcement still faces many challenges in battling this epidemic. our collaborations must go beyond traditional law enforcement. we can no longer be a “onesizefitsall” operation. by working with agencies and industries in every field affected by addiction and overdose, we are best able to identify the resources and practices that will help us finally reach a turning point. we need an “allhandsondeck” approach from law enforcement and government agencies at all levels, the medical community, treatment providers, and every pennsylvanian who comes into contact with opioid drugs. oag will continue do everything we can to facilitate these collaborations and innovations. josh shapiro is the attorney general for the commonwealth of pennsylvania. he previously served as chairman of the montgomery county board of commissioners and as representative for the 153rd district in the pennsylvania house of representatives. higher standards and lower achievement? higher standards and lower achievement? an evaluation of pennsylvania’s keystone exams adam mcglynn east stroudsburg university of pennsylvania as the requirement that students pass three keystone exams to graduate from high school was set to take effect, a new round of criticisms arose over the adoption of this assessment system. while the keystone exams better align with the new pennsylvania core standards as compared to their predecessor, the pennsylvania system of student achievement, low passage rates especially among low-income and minority students have been cited as a reason to delay implementation of the graduation requirement. this work uses ols regression analysis to explain which factors are most predictive of school-level performance on the algebra i, biology, and literature keystone exams. it finds that race, socioeconomic status, and a school’s english language learner and special education populations drive performance on the exams. the work concludes by discussing possible policy interventions for the keystone exam program going forward. the impetus for much of the educational reforms that have been enacted over the last 30 years was the need for tougher standards. quite simply, it was believed that reports such as a nation at risk (1983) and the results of international assessments such as the trends in international math and science study (timms) and the programme for international student assessment (pisa) were due to u.s. students not being pushed to achieve commonwealth, volume 18, issue 1 (june 2016). © 2016 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/cjppp.v18i1.83. all rights reserved. 32 adam mcglynn more. policymakers believed that if more were required of students, then they would rise to the occasion, and student achievement would increase. of course, standards are relatively useless unless there is a mechanism in place to assess their achievement. this work focuses on the assessment of the achievement of higher standards in pennsylvania by examining the recently implemented keystone exams, which replaced the pennsylvania system of student achievement (pssa) in high schools throughout the commonwealth. specifically, the question this work intends to address is which factors most influence proficiency rates on the keystone exams in pennsylvania high schools. there are multiple reasons for addressing this question, but the most important and timely reason is that in february of 2016, governor wolf signed legislation delaying the implementation of the requirement that students pass three keystone exams in literature, algebra i, and biology in order to graduate from high school. this requirement was planned to take effect during the 2016–2017 school year with the new legislation delaying that requirement by two years until 2018–2019. the reason for the delay was to respond to complaints from school districts over the “high-stakes nature” of the exams and how to help students who have failed the exams complete alternative assessments (murphy 2016). therefore, this work will examine demographic, staffing, and programmatic variables in public high schools to identify which factors drive proficiency rates, which in turn could spur a discussion of targeted interventions that would aid high schools in the goal of increasing their proficiency rates on the keystone exams. background the pssa tests mirrored many other high stakes tests in the nation at the high school level where they assessed, for the most part, the minimum level of skill and knowledge believed to be required of a high school graduate. in many cases, the content of the high school pssa exam was reading and mathematics material that students had learned in eighth and ninth grades, despite the exams being conducted while students were in the 11th grade (murphy 2015). this means that whether intentional or not, the pssas had elements similar to other state assessments and were not necessarily assessing material that students planning to attend college would be exposed to later in high school (bishop et al. 2000). the keystone exam program thus emanates from a desire to assess student achievement of higher standards adopted in the form of the pennsylvania core standards. the pennsylvania core standards, with which the keystone exams are aligned, were derived from the national common core state stanhigher standards and lower achievement? 33 dards (ccss) with the goal of creating “standards aligned with expectations for success in college and the workplace” (pennsylvania department of education 2014, ix). in 2008, the commonwealth developed the keystone exams to create an assessment program “to provide a system that is aligned, focused, standards-based, accurate, universally applicable, and publicly accessible” (pennsylvania department of education 2014, ix). the keystone exams thus serve as “final course exams” (pennsylvania department of education 2014, ix), similar to what one would find in a college-level course. the program was originally charged with creating assessments in 10 subject areas: algebra i, algebra ii, biology, chemistry, civics and government, english composition, geometry, literature, u.s. history, and world history. each exam would account for at least one-third of a student’s final course grades, and students who did not score at the level of proficiency or advanced after two attempts would be able to complete a project-based assessment to meet the requirements. however, as of this writing, pennsylvania has only implemented three exams: algebra i, biology, and literature. these tests are being used to assess high schools as a part of the pennsylvania school performance profile system, which was created under the waiver from the requirements of no child left behind granted to the commonwealth by the u.s. department of education. considering the emphasis that has been placed on college attendance in the last 20 years, requiring students to pass final exams that are aligned with a recently completed curriculum makes sense in preparing students for the rigors of undergraduate education. in theory, an end-of-course exam (eoc) would increase standards as it motivates all students to prepare for the test, whereas a minimum-competency test (mct) will be unlikely to pose a challenge to better performing students (bishop et al. 2000). most states adopted mcts (if they were not already in place) after the adoption of no child left behind in 2002. as nclb evaluated schools based on a standard of proficiency, minimum-competency tests created an incentive to focus resources on the lowest performing students in a school and a district (bishop et al. 2000). achieving high levels of proficiency could ensure that a school and/or a district avoided the punitive measures associated with the failure to achieve adequate yearly progress as required under nclb, but for the reasons stated above, it does not guarantee a movement toward higher standards and college readiness. despite these perceived benefits of eocs compared to mcts, the united states has little experience with subject-area testing in the assessment of k–12 schools. as isaacs (2014) notes, sat subject tests, advanced placement (ap) courses and exams, as well as the subject tests conducted by the national assessment of educational progress (u.s. department of education 2015) are the most 34 adam mcglynn prominent national examples of subject testing such as occurs in the new keystone exam program. it should be noted that none of these assessments form the basis of education policy decisions at the national or state level, meaning that education policy nationally and locally is driven by the results of mcts. therefore, pennsylvania is limited in the examples it has to draw from in the creation and implementation of its end-of-course exam program. one program that could serve as a guide for the use of eocs is the new york state regents exam program, which has existed for over 100 years. however, for much of the program’s existence students were not required to take regents exams. students planning to go to a college or university would often complete the regents track, which required passing five eocs (regents exams) in global history and geography, english, u.s. history, mathematics, and science (isaacs 2014). the math and science exams are subject specific (i.e., algebra, geometry, chemistry, biology), but students are only required to pass one from each field. successfully passing the five exams with a score of 65 or above would earn one a regents diploma or a regents diploma with honors if a student had an average pass rate of 85 or above. students not planning to go to college could opt for the regents competency tests (rcts), which were less rigorous, and could still earn a high school diploma in the process (isaacs 2014). less than half of new york state students were graduating with regents diplomas in the mid-1990s, which led then new york state commissioner of education richard mills to move to mandate the exams for all students in order to achieve a high school diploma (debray 2004). the expansion of the regents exam program created many challenges, including concerns over low-income and minority student achievement and the validity of the tests in assessing the state’s learning standards, which led to proposed delays in the program’s implementation similar to what we currently see in pennsylvania (isaacs 2014). further, there was a concern that standards would need to be lowered to ensure students could pass the exams, which of course in turn could weaken the value of the regents exam program. this was problematic given that the new york state education department released a report that found that state colleges and universities believed only regents exam scores of 85 or above, what the state viewed as graduation with distinction, were indicative of readiness for higher education (isaacs 2014; new york state department of education 2011). teachers, while seeing benefits to changes in the testing program, also raised concerns regarding the implementation of testing and corresponding curriculum changes without significant input from teachers (grant 2000). isaacs concluded her work by emphasizing that the strength of the regents program is its alignment with the curriculum, which has only recently come into vogue in other states because of common higher standards and lower achievement? 35 core. however, this brief discussion of the new york state regents exams shows that a comprehensive eoc system worked best when it was optional and helped raise standards for above average students; once this system was expanded to all students, significant challenges and growing pains emerged as is the case now in pennsylvania. in theory eoc exams are a better assessment tool than an mct, so why then in an era where there has been greater demand for accountability and increased standards would the keystone exams, which seemingly accomplished both, be met with resistance? the reasons are numerous but start with an overall movement against increased testing in schools. in a letter to state senator andrew dinniman, who stands in ardent opposition to the exams, superintendents from more than 50 schools in southeastern pennsylvania explained that the exams would place a tremendous burden on high school students and could lead to students spending as many as three or four weeks taking tests when the keystones are added to ap and local course exams. additionally, they explained that many eighth graders enrolled in algebra i would be required to take both the eighth-grade pssa exams and the algebra i keystone exam (coalition of pennsylvania public school superintendents and intermediate unit executive directors 2013). just as significant to the superintendents was the cost of preparing students for the exam and providing remediation in the form of the project-based assessments that students could complete in lieu of passing a keystone exam. in a position paper posted to his website, senator dinniman argued that the costs associated with preparing students for the exams, especially those taking it more than once, in addition to the cost of the project-based assessments was an estimated $300 million. he argued that the result is essentially an unfunded mandate placed on school districts by the state, which could ultimately lead to higher property taxes (dinniman 2013). concern over the keystone exams is not limited to the southeastern part of the state. superintendents in the lehigh valley also expressed concern about the exams specifically over the project-based assessments. overall, school leaders in the region were concerned that the project-based assessments have not been clearly explained and would take longer than the eight to ten hours suggested by the state. this would require students to miss class time, staff to be reassigned, and possibly the need for additional staff at a time when local residents are opposed to property tax increases and when state funding has been stagnant (palochko 2015). of course, it is unlikely that the keystone exams would be met with such vitriol if students were performing admirably on the assessments. however, when the exams were first piloted widely in 2011, only 49.9% of students in the commonwealth scored at or 36 adam mcglynn above the proficient level on the literature exam, with 38.6% and 35.7% of students achieving proficiency on the algebra i and biology exams, respectively. this has led to a concern from many groups, including the naacp (pennlive editorial board 2009) and school superintendents, that “an inevitable outcome of tying keystone exams to graduation rates is an increased dropout rate that will affect a disproportionate amount of low-income and at-risk students than their peers in more affluent communities whose parents and schools have more resources to focus on remediation” (coalition of pennsylvania public school superintendents and intermediate unit executive directors 2013). the keystone exams are now beyond the pilot phase, so the practicality of the assessments must be evaluated as we approach full implementation. one of the factors that will be examined in this work is whether socioeconomic status and racial and ethnic minority populations drive keystone exam proficiency rates as feared by these school and community leaders. these concerns are significant as some members of the pennsylvania general assembly, while supporting the purpose of the exams, have called for removing the requirement that the exams be passed in order to graduate from high school (pennsylvania house of representatives education committee 2015). as mentioned in the introduction, the keystone exams graduation requirement has been delayed until the 2018–2019 school year, which serves as a significant impetus for this research. the delay appears to be an example of where politics is conflicting with what policy analysts and government agencies believe is the best path forward. in response to the proposed twoyear delay, the state board of education chairman larry wittig, who helped develop the keystone exam system, was skeptical. in comments to penn live reporter jan murphy (2015), wittig cited the use of the tests as an evaluation measure for teachers as a reason to oppose the delay, but also said, “this was a very well-crafted system. i don’t think people critical of it fully understand the ramifications of the meltdown. . . . in the bottom of my heart, i don’t feel that by eliminating this requirement, it’s doing a positive thing for students” (murphy 2015). however he also noted that, “if they can come up with something better that achieves the same desired result, i’m all in” (murphy 2015). it is interesting to note that under the newly passed every student succeeds act (essa), states and schools are no longer mandated to assess teachers using test scores. (the u.s. department of education had been granting states waivers from this requirement of no child left behind, in any event.) therefore, this provides an additional opportunity for policymakers to walk back from the keystone exam program if they choose to do so, as they will not have to worry about the pressure to satisfy a federal teacher-evaluation mandate. however, some type of testing must remain— higher standards and lower achievement? 37 whether it’s the keystones or something else—as the testing mandate for high school has remained a part of the essa. the move to delay the implementation of the graduation requirement and changes to education policy at the federal level provide an opportunity for policymakers to re-evaluate the program to assess not only the appropriateness of the learning standards and the exams designed to assess them, but the feasibility of future student success in the keystone exam program as currently constructed. an educational-input regression model was estimated to assess the factors that appear most influential in predicting school-level success on the keystone exams with the goal of helping to identify how policymakers can allocate resources going forward to achieve the goals of the keystone exam program. data, methods, and hypotheses in november of 2015, the pennsylvania department of education released the results of the keystone exam administration for the 2014–2015 academic year, representing the most recent available data to assess school performance on the exams. these data provide the dependent variables in this study. overall, six dependent variables are assessed using ordinary least squares (ols) regression analysis. each of the six regression models was estimated using the stata software program with robust standard errors to correct for the possibility of heteroscedasticity impacting the validity of the regression coefficient estimates. the six dependent variables are the percentage of students achieving proficiency (i.e. passing) the keystone exams in algebra i, biology, and literature in each public high school in the commonwealth and the percentage of historically underperforming (hu) students achieving proficiency on the same three exams in each high school in the commonwealth.1 as explained by the pennsylvania department of education (pde) (2015), “the historically underperforming group consists of students who are: (1) economically disadvantaged, (2) english language learners, or (3) have an individualized education plan. if a student is in more than one of those categories, that student is only counted one time.” as the focus of federal education programs has been to improve the achievement of these hu students, it is important to look at keystone exam results for both groups. the use of these data provide an advantage over previous analyses of the keystone exam program given that student performance improves over time regardless of student ability as students learn strategies specific to a given assessment. as the keystone exams were first field tested in 2009 and 2010, and implemented widely in 2011, students and teachers should have familiarity with the assess38 adam mcglynn ments at this point. as such, student performance in 2014–2015 should be higher than previous years. the data for the independent variables were obtained from the pde fast facts data set, which provides information on everything from school addresses to demographic data. for this work the following independent variables are included in the models: school type (charter school or traditional public school), the percentage of teachers in a school who are highly qualified, the average number of years of experience of teachers in the school, the percentage of students in a school who are female, economically disadvantaged, hispanic, african-american, english language learners, identified as gifted, and have an individualized education plan (iep). finally, the number of students enrolled in the school and the number of ap courses offered by the school are also included as independent variables.2 the only public schools omitted from the models are those with missing data and the career, vocational, and technical schools in the commonwealth often referred to as career and technical centers (ctc) or area vocational and technical schools (avts). these schools’ student populations are often composed of students from multiple districts, with many only attending part-time and being assessed by their home districts. this meant that many of these schools had very low testing populations. for these two reasons, they were excluded from the analysis due to concerns that their unique nature could confound the results. after accounting for missing data, 634 high schools in the commonwealth formed the basis for this analysis with just under 10% of those schools being charter schools. the purpose of this work is to assess achievement on the keystone exams and to help policymakers identify areas of intervention that could help make the program successful. as an alternative, should the results show that achievement gaps based on wealth, race, and ethnicity persist under the keystone exam system, policymakers will need to ask whether the program actually benefits students and provides them with an opportunity to be successful. with this goal in mind, this work will test the following hypotheses: h1: race, ethnicity, english proficiency, special education populations and socioeconomic status will impact keystone exam proficiency rates negatively in all three subject areas consistent with national performance data on standardized tests (u.s. department of education 2015). h2: individual school/building level factors such as the gender composition of the student population, the percentage of gifted students, teacher experience, and the number of ap courses offered higher standards and lower achievement? 39 will not impact school-level performance on the keystone exams. one would expect that having experienced teachers, many gifted students, and more ap courses offered would likely be an indicator of higher proficiency rates on the keystone exams; however, there is little variation on the teacher experience and gifted student variables, and many schools offer ap exams as an indication of rigor, but that does not necessarily mean students are earning ap credit, which is why none of these three variables are hypothesized to have an impact. h3: schools with lower enrollments will have higher proficiency rates on the keystone exams given research that has demonstrated that small schools can aid in overcoming the impacts of socioeconomic status in educational achievement. (bickel et al. 2001) results table 1 presents the descriptive statistics for the variables that are included in the regression models. these figures demonstrate a wide disparity in student achievement and the demographics of the student population. we see that while in most schools a majority of students are proficient on all three keystone exams, we also see that a majority of the historically underperforming student populations in pennsylvania high schools do not achieve proficiency in algebra i and biology. also of note is that most schools have highly qualified and experienced teachers, which means those factors are unlikely to be demonstrated to be impactful in explaining school-level performance on the keystone exams. finally, unlike the national trend, african-americans comprise a much greater proportion of the pennsylvania student population, with the average high school having an african-american student population of almost 15%, which is more than double the average high school’s hispanic student population. a few key findings are evident from the regression models in tables 2 and 3. first, all of the models aid in the explanation of school-level performance on the keystone exams although the hu models explain less of the variance in proficiency rates as evidenced by their lower r-squared values.3 overall, there is mixed support for all three hypotheses.4 the most striking finding is that in all six models, the percentage of students in special education programs, the percentage of african-american students, and the percentage of english language learners (ell) had a negative impact on proficiency rates. these significant variables exhibited the lowest p-values, demonstrating the high likelihood that the relationship between test scores and a school’s special edu40 adam mcglynn cation population is not due to chance. not only was the level of significance impressive, but also the magnitude of their impact, especially with the ell and special education student variables. on average across the six models, a percentage point increase in a school’s special education population would yield a percentage point decrease in proficiency rates, while percentage point increases in the ell population would on average decrease proficiency rates by approximately seven-tenths of a point. comparatively, although consistently statistically significant, a percentage point increase in the african-american student population would decrease proficiency rates by two-tenths of a point in high schools in the commonwealth. thus while race matters in explaining keystone exam proficiency rates, the steepest declines will be observed with increases in a high school’s ell and special education populations. also significant across multiple models was the percentage of students who were economically disadvantaged, which was found to reduce proficiency rates by an average of two-tenths of a point in the total student population models. in an unexpected finding, the percentage of economically disadtable 1. descriptive statistics variable statistic minimum maximum avg proficiency rate—literature 72.12 7.58 100 avg proficiency rate—algebra i 63.70 3.88 100 avg proficiency rate—biology 57.50 0 100 avg proficiency rate—literature (hu students) 58.18 7.69 100 avg proficiency rate—algebra i (hu students) 48.47 4.05 100 avg proficiency rate—biology (hu students) 42.64 0 100 number of charter schools & pct of sample 63 (9.94%) — — percent african-american 14.65 0 100 percent hispanic 6.75 0 93.59 percent economically disadvantaged 43.81 3.09 100 percent english language learners 1.80 0 46.44 percent female 49.00 0 100 number of ap courses offered 8.16 0 34 percent gifted students 4.1 0 51.86 avg number of students enrolled 892.18 97 9344 percent special education students 14.96 0 44.67 avg number of years of teaching exp. 13.04 1.83 20.42 percent highly qualified teachers 97.64 0 100 note: statistics based on a sample size of 634, except for the hu proficiency rates where n = 620. higher standards and lower achievement? 41 table 2. keystone exam regression model for total high school student populations variable literature (n = 634) algebra i (n = 634) biology (n = 634) coefficient (s.e.) coefficient (s.e.) coefficient (s.e.) charter school –2.40 (2.94) –8.20 (2.80)** –6.86 (2.48)** percent africanamerican –0.15 (0.036)*** –0.218 (0.036)*** –0.255 (0.035)*** percent economically disadvantaged –0.181(0.039)*** –0.205 (0.044)*** –0.342 (0.042)*** percent english language learners –0.903 (0.129)*** –0.643 (0.152)*** –0.641 (0.150)*** percent female 0.339 (0.113)** 0.211 (0.113) 0.152 (0.108) percent hispanic –0.003 (0.067) –0.054 (0.066) –0.059 (0.063) number of ap courses offered 0.364 (0.076)*** 0.420 (0.086)*** 0.313 (0.083)*** percent gifted students 0.380 (0.107)*** 0.409 (0.128)** 0.299 (0.158) number of enrolled students –0.0007 (0.0006) –0.0015 (0.0006)* –0.001 (0.001) percent special education students –0.990 (0.125)*** –0.997 (0.108)*** –0.695 (0.093)*** average number of years of teaching exp. –0.222 (0.201) –0.286 (0.219) –0.321 (0.216) percent highly qualified teachers 0.138 (0.074) 0.159 (0.082) 0.087 (0.079) constant 67.80 (10.32)*** 67.25 (10.45)*** 73.86 (9.89)*** r-squared value 0.656 0.669 0.738 *p < 0.05 **p < 0.01 ***p < 0.001 vantaged students had a small positive impact on the algebra i proficiency rate but only in the historically underperforming student model. this is an anomaly that is difficult to explain but could possibly be attributed to the use of school-level data for this subset of students as discussed previously. overall, the analysis demonstrates as expected in the first hypothesis that race, socioeconomic status, english language proficiency, and special education status negatively impact student performance. also worth noting is that there was an independent impact for race and socioeconomic status. one could posit that the disproportionate poverty african-americans live in compared to caucasians (macartney, et al. 2013) could mitigate the impact of race, and only show an impact for socioeconomic status, but here it is appar42 adam mcglynn ent that african-american students are struggling to achieve proficiency on the keystone exams even with the economically disadvantaged variable in the model. additionally, the number of ap courses offered in the high school had a significant and positive impact on proficiency levels in all three models for the total student population and for the literature and algebra i models among historically underperforming students, contradicting the second hypothesis. each additional ap course offered is estimated to increase proficiency rates by approximately 0.35 points. further, the percentage of gifted students was found to increase proficiency rates on the literature and algebra i keystone table 3. keystone exam regression model for historically underperforming student populations variable literature (n = 620) algebra i (n = 620) biology (n = 620) coefficient (s.e.) coefficient (s.e.) coefficient (s.e.) charter school 3.03 (3.27) –3.45 (3.38) –3.10 (3.05) percent africanamerican –0.126 (0.039)** –0.194(0.046)*** –0.244 (0.037)*** percent economically disadvantaged 0.069 (0.040) 0.104 (0.051)* –0.051 (0.050) percent english language learners –0.813 (0.139)*** –0.603 (0.140)*** –0.593 (0.137)*** percent female 0.414 (0.115) 0.332 (0.119)** 0.168 (0.115) percent hispanic –0.026 (0.072) –0.079 (0.066) –0.092 (0.065) number of ap courses offered 0.332 (0.102)** 0.354 (0.113)** 0.179 (0.109) percent gifted students 0.610 (0.125)*** 0.574 (0.292)*** 0.390 (0.248) number of students enrolled –0.001 (0.0007)* –0.002 (0.0001)** –0.001 (0.001) percent special education students –1.14 (0.124)*** –1.10 (0.127)*** –0.832 (0.108)*** average number of years of teaching exp. –0.281 (0.252) –0.247 (0.284) –0.443 (0.271) percent highly qualified teachers 0.120 (0.075) 0.142 (0.084) 0.093 (0.074) constant 43.05 (10.30)*** 34.65 (11.57)** 49.24 (10.09)*** r-squared value 0.400 0.391 0.476 p < 0.05 **p < 0.01 ***p < 0.001 higher standards and lower achievement? 43 exams: a percentage point increase in the gifted population increases proficiency rates by approximately one-half of a percentage point. the findings related to ap course offerings and the gifted student population contradict the second hypothesis and will be examined in the discussion section. the impact of charter schools was limited. only in the algebra i and biology models for all students in a school did being a charter school have a statistically significant impact, and in those instances charter schools had proficiency rates that were eight points lower in algebra i and seven points lower in biology. the results also show that percentage point increases in the female population of a high school would on average increase proficiency rates on the literature keystone exam (total student population model) and algebra i keystone exam (hu student model) by three-tenths of a point. and finally, smaller schools are found to have a positive impact on proficiency rates for the algebra i exam in both models, and the literature exam in the total student population model, supporting the third hypothesis. however, it should be noted that the magnitude of the impact of smaller schools is low. just as important as the findings are the non-findings. in all six models, hispanic ethnicity, teaching experience, and the percentage of teachers who were highly qualified proved statistically insignificant. the insignificance of the teacher variables was expected and supports the second hypothesis, but the findings related to ethnicity are contrary to hypothesis one. therefore, despite national test results showing ethnicity negatively impacting student achievement, the results here do not support those findings. while it is difficult to offer any definitive explanations, the smaller overall size of the hispanic population in commonwealth high schools could be the cause of the observed result. discussion the results presented here do provide insight into how the commonwealth can save the keystone exam program and achieve its original goals of ensuring that students are achieving higher academic standards. however, this work does not allow for a specific diagnosis of the cause of the achievement gap that is confirmed by this work. there are myriad possible reasons for these findings, including test bias, inadequate funding in minority and low-income schools, lower standards and expectations in the classrooms of historically underperforming students, and concerns that out of school experiences can negate what goes on in the classroom. these reasons are all plausible. however, school finances should be the first issue addressed by policymakers. first, the literature on test bias is controversial, with psychometricians appearing 44 adam mcglynn to believe that mean differences in group test scores are unlikely due to bias (warne et al. 2014). also, the adoption of the common core standards and recent changes to teacher evaluation systems in the commonwealth (the result of the waiver pennsylvania received from the requirements of nclb) show an attempt to address the possibility that teachers expect less from historically underperforming groups, which a 2014 report from the center for american progress found to be the case. finally, there is a large body of research explaining the impact of outside factors on educational achievement, especially poverty (jensen 2009), but policymakers are limited in their ability to address such problems due to both budgetary and public opinion constraints. these issues deserve much greater discussion than provided here, but for the reasons stated above and because a recent study by the education trust (2015) found pennsylvania to have the third worst funding gap between low poverty and high poverty districts in the country, school finances will be the focus as one possible solution to the keystone exam achievement gap. first and foremost, the commonwealth must find ways to provide more services and resources to its special education and english language learner student populations. for most schools, the special education population will be of greater concern given its size relative to the ell population. just as its predecessor no child left behind did, the new every student succeeds act requires schools to assess 95% of its student population, and because most schools have 15% of their student population or more requiring special education services, at least two-thirds of that group will need to be tested to meet the requirement. in recent years pennsylvania revised its special education funding formula, which now accounts for not only student headcounts but also employs weighted cost categories to ensure more funding goes to districts with students who cost the most to educate (commonwealth of pennsylvania general assembly 2013). however, schools continue to struggle with the costs of special education services as school funding has remained relatively flat in pennsylvania, and the revised formula is being applied only to small increments of additional annual funding. as well, it has been found that school districts end up overpaying charter schools to educate special education students who live in their district based on current law. the pennsylvania association of school business officials (pasbo) estimates this overpayment to be $200 million a year (pasbo 2014). this problem is likely to worsen given the rising number of students that are classified as being on the autism spectrum, which entitles them to special education services. thus of fundamental importance to raising keystone exam scores will be a comprehensive restructuring of how special education students are funded and serviced in the commonwealth. higher standards and lower achievement? 45 while it is easier to diagnose and formulate plans regarding special education funding and services, policies that could successfully address racial and economic disparities remain elusive. many reform advocates have campaigned for more charter schools to address racial and socioeconomic achievement gaps, and while several are operating within the commonwealth in areas with low-income, minority populations, the results here show that charter schools do not perform better than traditional public schools; in the case of the algebra i and biology exams, they perform significantly worse. thus, the commonwealth’s main objective should be to continue interventions in the communities and schools with large low-income and racial minority populations. this starts with greater resources for programs such as early childhood education, which has been one of the few interventions to demonstrate lasting positive results (karoly et al. 2005). while it is not feasible to attempt to place more gifted students in high schools that lack such students, it is possible to help increase standards by providing the funds to offer more ap courses. at the start of any such initiative in schools with low proficiency rates, few students are likely to earn college credit through these courses. however, exposure to this advanced material will better prepare students for higher education, even if it does not immediately result in college credit. lastly, it sends the message to students in these high schools that faculty and administrators believe they are capable of achieving more. districts could also consider having students spend more time on their schooling with after-school and possibly weekend enrichment programs. parents and communities should also be incorporated more into the education process. these are interventions that have also proven successful (ucla center for mental health in schools 2007) as the amount of time students spend outside of school dwarfs the time spent inside the classroom. out-of-classroom time sometimes undoes what was achieved in the classroom. the pennsylvania general assembly and the governor are currently at odds over the commonwealth budget; an impasse that has lasted over eight months as of this writing. a principal area of disagreement is revenue generation to be used for increasing funding to public schools. based on the results of this paper, while one can posit that money is not everything, supplying more resources for pennsylvania schools is vital at this time. in theory, the keystone exams are a worthwhile program as they help to ensure higher standards are achieved while better aligning curriculum with assessment, something that was missing at the high school level under the pssas. however, to close with an analogy, if one can high jump five feet, one can’t raise the bar six inches and expect increased effort to immediately result in the achievement of the new standard. just as an athlete would need to train to meet the new standard, 46 adam mcglynn schools and students, especially in areas with large low-income, ell, special education, and minority student populations, need the time and resources to be able to better prepare for these assessments. as discussed in the introduction, the keystone exam program has worthwhile benefits, however, like the recently ended no child left behind legislation, those left with implementing the program are struggling without the resources needed to achieve its goals, and without significant changes in harrisburg, the program is likely to see achievement gaps persist as evidenced in this work. notes 1. individual student data would be ideal for the purposes of this paper, but at present no individual-level data have been published by the pennsylvania department of education on its website, which is the reason that school-level data are used. 2. one obvious omission here is the absence of a variable measuring per-pupil expenditures. data for this variable are only available at the district/local education agency level. while there is likely to be a correlation between overall spending and spending at the high school, there are several factors that could impact per-pupil spending in each school such as the technology available in and the special education populations of each school. as such, the decision was made to only include variables measured at the school/ building level. 3. the hu population models continue to use data at the school level for the independent variables while only examining proficiency for a subset of the school’s population. this could account for the less robust results for the hu models. this is not ideal, however given that different variables could be found to drive proficiency rates among the full school and the hu subset, the hu models were included. 4. please note that while there are correlations between some of the variables, e.g., the percentage of economically disadvantaged students and the percentage of africanamerican students, an examination of variance inflation factors (vif) did not show evidence of multicollinearity. references bickel, robert, craig howley, tony williams, and catherine h. glascock. 2001. “high school size, achievement equity, and cost: robust interaction effects and tentative results.” education policy analysis archives 9 (40). http://epaa.asu.edu/ojs/article/ view/369 (march 13, 2016). bishop, john. h., ferran mane, michael bishop, and joan moriarty. 2000. “the role of end-of-course exams and minimum competency exams in standards-based reforms.” july 1. (cahrs working paper #00-9). ithaca, ny: cornell university, school of industrial and labor relations, center for advanced human resource studies. http://digitalcommons.ilr.cornell.edu/cahrswp/88 (september 15, 2015). center for american progress. 2014. “release: teachers have lower expectations for students of color and students from low-income backgrounds.” october 6. https:// www.americanprogress.org/press/release/2014/10/06/98317/release-teachers-have -lower-expectations-for-students-of-color-and-students-from-low-income-back grounds/ (february 25, 2016). higher standards and lower achievement? 47 coalition of pennsylvania superintendents and intermediate unit executive directors. 2013. “letter to senator andrew dinniman.” november 5. http://www.senator dinniman.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/1keystonespositionpaper.pdf (november 5, 2015). commonwealth of pennsylvania. 2013. pennsylvania general assembly. “special education funding commission report.” december 11. http://archive.pasbo.org/spe cial%20ed%20commission%20final%20report.pdf (december 8, 2015). ———. 2015. house of representatives education committee. presentation on pa state assessments. july 29. debray, elizabeth. 2004. “richard mills and the new york state board of regents, 1995– 2001.” journal of cases in educational leadership 7 (2): 27–43. dinniman, andrew e. 2013. “8 reasons why we oppose the keystone exams. minority chair, senate education committee.” http://www.senatordinniman.com/wp-con tent/uploads/2013/11/eightreasonsagainstkeystones.pdf (november 5, 2015). education trust. 2015. “funding gaps 2015.” march 25. https://edtrust.org/resource /funding-gaps-2015/ (february 25, 2016). grant, s.g. 2000. “teachers and tests: exploring teachers’ perceptions of changes in the new york state testing program.” education policy analysis archives 8 (14). http:// epaa.asu.edu/ojs/article/view/405/528 (november 5, 2015). isaacs, tina. 2014. “150 years of statewide assessment in new york: are regents exams still fit for a purpose?” assessment in education: principles, policy and practice 21 (3): 344–357. jensen, eric. 2009. teaching with poverty in mind: what being poor does to kids’ brains and what schools can do about it. alexandria, va: association for supervision and curriculum development. karoly, lynn, m., rebecca kilburn, and jill s. cannon. 2005. “proven benefits of early childhood interventions.” rand corporation. http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_ briefs/rb9145.html (december 1, 2015). macartney, suzanne, alemayehu bishaw, and kayla fontenot. 2013. “poverty rates for selected detailed race and hispanic groups by state and place: 2007–2011.” american community survey briefs. washington, dc: u.s. census bureau. https://www.census .gov/prod/2013pubs/acsbr11-17.pdf (february 29, 2016). murphy, jan. 2015. “graduation testing requirement delay wins house passage.” pennlive, november 24. www.pennlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2015/11/graduation_test ing_requirement_1.html (november 24, 2015). ———. 2016. “wolf signs bill to suspend use of keystone exams as a graduation requirement.” pennlive, february 3. http://www.pennlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/02 /wolf_signs_bill_to_suspend_use.html (february 26, 2016). national commission on excellence in education. 1983. “a nation at risk: the imperative for education reform.” april. http://www2.ed.gov/pubs/natatrisk/index.html (october 29, 2015). new york state education department. board of regents. 2011. potential revision of high school graduation requirements. march 11. albany, ny: nysed. http://www .regents.nysed.gov/common/regents/files/documents/meetings/2011meetings/march 2011/311p12ccrgradreqpresentation.pdf (november 5, 2015). palochko, jacqueline. 2015. “keystone exams one big headache for lehigh valley school districts.” the morning call, may 10. http://www.mcall.com/news/local/mc-lehigh -valley-keystone-project-based-assessments-20150509-story.html (november 5, 2015). pennlive editorial board. 2009. “important questions remain about keystone exams.” 48 adam mcglynn pennlive, august 30. http://www.pennlive.com/editorials/index.ssf/2009/08/impor tant_questions_remain_abo.html (october 29, 2015). pennsylvania association of school business officials. 2014. “misleading claims by charter school advocates must not be permitted to stall needed special education reform.” may 13. http://archive.pasbo.org/special%20education%20funding%20 press%20release.pdf (december 8, 2015). pennsylvania department of education. 2014. keystone exams: technical report. harrisburg, pa: department of education. http://www.education.pa.gov/documents/k-12 /assessment%20and%20accountability/keystone%20exams/technical%20 reports/2014%20keystone%20technical%20report.pdf (october 1, 2015). ———. 2015. 2015 keystone exam school level data. harrisburg, pa: department of education. http://paschoolperformance.org/downloads (november 18, 2015). ucla center for mental health in schools. 2007. “after-school programs and addressing barriers to learning.” http://www.isbe.net/learningsupports/pdfs/after-school -prog.pdf (december 10, 2015). u.s. department of education. 2015. national assessment of educational progress (naep). washington, dc: department of education. http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/ (november 29, 2015). warne, russell t., myeongsun yoon, and chris j. price. 2014. “exploring the various interpretations of ‘test bias.’” cultural diversity and ethnic minority psychology 20 (4): 570–582. solar renewable energy credit price volatility and investment returns commonwealth, volume 19, issue 1 (2017). © 2017 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/com.v19i1.135. all rights reserved. solar renewable energy credit price volatility and investment returns have policies stranded capital investment? somayeh youssefi university of maryland patrick l. gurian drexel university pennsylvania is one of a number of u.s. states that provide incentives for the generation of electricity by solar energy through solar renewal energy credits (srecs). this article develops a return on investment model for solar energy generation in the pjm (midatlantic) region of the united states. model results indicate that srec values of roughly $150 are needed for residential scale systems to break even over a 25year project period at 3% interest. market prices for srecs in pennsylvania have been well below this range from late 2011 through the first half of 2016, indicating that previous capital investments in solar generation have been stranded as a result of steep declines in the value of srecs. a simple conceptual supply and demand model is developed to explain the sharp decline in market prices for srecs. also discussed is a possible policy remedy that would add unsold srecs in a given year to the srec quota for the subsequent year. over the last decade, interest in generating green electricity has increased, however, renewable energy sources have high upfront costs. to incentivize renewable electricity generation, a number of u.s. states have developed renewable portfolio standards (rps). renewable portfolio standards require electricity companies to generate a growing quantity of their energy from renewables. each state has developed renewable 80 somayeh youssefi and patrick l. gurian energy targets. the quantity of electricity generated from qualifying sources is tracked by renewable energy credits (rec), which are tradable commodities, allowing electricity utilities to meet their rps requirements by purchasing power from generators using renewable sources. in the united states, rps policies have remarkably expanded the application of wind energy (menz and vachon 2006). the reason for slower growth in solar electricity is the high initial investment required for photovoltaic (pv) systems. to alleviate the high capital cost of pv systems and make them competitive with other renewable technologies, most states with rps laws have initiated setasides for solar generation. a solar setaside requires that a certain amount of electricity consumed in a state must be generated by pv facilities. if a utility provider fails to meet setaside obligations, it must pay a penalty called the solar alternative compliance payment (sacp). these penalties are aggregated by the government and invested on research to expand renewable energy usage (holt and wiser 2007). recs specified for solar energy are called solar renewable energy credits or certificates (srecs). to trade srecs some states have set up viable markets, which are in their initial stages. while a few studies of these markets have been undertaken (burns and kang 2012), the pennsylvania srec market has not been studied in depth. in its initial years it grew considerably; however, its early success was not stable and was followed by a dramatic collapse in srec prices and its solar industry (solar foundation 2016). exploring pennsylvania’s market in depth can provide insights into solar markets’ structure and help establish more functional markets. thus, the objective of this article is to explore the pennsylvania srec market and effective returns on investment in solar electricity generation, given historical market fluctuations in srec value. the implications of proposed plans to strengthen the pennsylvania market are also discussed. the preceding introduction is followed by five main sections: (1) a background overview; (2) a history of the pennsylvania srec market, its current status, and the challenges it faces; (3) the cost estimation and economic returns of a typical pv system; (4) the results of the analysis and strategies to improve the stability of the market; and (5) the conclusion. background support mechanisms for renewable resources were first introduced in europe through feed-i ntariff programs in the 1980s. fit programs incentivize various energy production technologies according to their cost. furthermore, the government ensures purchase of all produced green energy by signing solar renewable energy credit price volatility and investment returns 81 longterm contracts with producers. as a result solar electricity production, which is relatively expensive, is well supported in europe (lipp 2007; dusonchet and telaretti 2010). in the united states, however, green energy production is supported through rps, which is implemented at the state level. there is no requirement for longterm contracts in the rps program, although the requirement that a growing percentage of consumed electricity be produced from renewable resources should provide ongoing incentives over time. as of 2016, 29 states, the district of columbia, and puerto rico have instituted a renewable portfolio standard (rps). states are free to structure their rps program according to their specific goals and associated characteristics. for instance, while new jersey does not have any constraints on the capacity of the pv systems, pennsylvania requires that pv systems be smaller than 50 kw to be eligible to register and trade their generated electricity in the market. several researchers have discussed advantages and disadvantages of rps programs and examined its potential to advance use of renewable energies (agnolucci 2007; bergek and jacobsson 2010; buckman 2011; butler and neuhoff 2008; cory and swezey 2007; finon and perez 2007; kildegaard 2008; lauber 2004; lipp 2007; michaels 2008; midttun and gautesen 2007; mitchell, bauknecht, and connor 2006; pourhashem et al. 2013; toke 2005; wiser, porter, bolinger, et al. 2005; wiser, porter, and grace 2005). lauber (2004) compared rps policies and feedintariff models. he concluded that while rps is beneficial, it does not contribute to the technological assortment and as indicated by buckman (2011) it lacks “dynamic efficiency.” similarly, meyer and koefoed (2003) found that most rps policies do not differentiate between renewable resources, therefore, they do not provide much support for energy sources that are currently high cost but have potential to achieve economic competitiveness over time, such as pv. however, langniss and wiser (2003) reviewed rps application in texas and concluded that if an rps is carefully designed and implemented, it can proliferate solar electricity generation at a low cost. still, the success of rps in texas is primarily due to wind power, and solar electricity has a very small role in the success of texas rps policies. to promote more expensive technologies such as pv and make them competitive with other renewable technologies, rps allows for dedicated support mechanisms. credit multipliers and solar carveout (or setaside) are two common programs adopted by 16 states, as well as the district of columbia. a solar set-a side obligates that a certain amount of electricity consumed in a state must be generated by pv facilities. however, credit multipliers encourage pv installation by devoting a higher credit to recs generated by pv facilities compared with other renewable resources. as mentioned earlier, recs specified for solar energy are called solar renewable energy credits or certificates 82 somayeh youssefi and patrick l. gurian (srecs). an srec is equal to onemegawatt hour of green electricity generated by utility companies, homeowners, or by any private entity, and it can be traded in a solar market. unlike tax credit or cash rebates that compensate individual investment near the time of the pv installation srecs shift the return on solar investment to the future. one major concern about srecs is that they do not have a fixed value. thus, changing prices makes financing projects supported by srecs risky. to date eight states (delaware, massachusetts, maryland, north carolina, new hampshire, new jersey, ohio, and pennsylvania) and the district of columbia have set up markets and associated tracking facilities to trade srecs. in these markets, commercial solar energy generators, as well as individual pv installers can sell their srecs to utility providers. to be permitted to participate in such markets, generators are required to get a participation number and then register in an eligible market. furthermore, they are required to install a monitoring device to allow counting of their generated srecs. one drawback of such markets is that residential pv installers usually do not possess the knowledge to perform successfully in these markets. however, there are srec brokers that can act as intermediaries. states with no srec market (new york, illinois, indiana, kentucky, michigan, tennessee, virginia, wisconsin, and west virginia) can sell their srecs in outofstate eligible markets. for instance, solar investors in west virginia are allowed to participate in the pennsylvania market. in addition to srecs, there are other support mechanisms for pv installations. for example, the federal investment tax credit (itc) is a nonrefundable personal tax credit that only residential pv owners can apply for. since january 1, 2006, the federal government gives residential pv installers a credit equal to 30% of their pv systems’ expenditures up to $500 per 0.5 kw of power (dsire 2014a). the itc will expire in december 2016. furthermore, some states, like massachusetts and north carolina, offer pv installers tax credits, and cash rebates, which are a dollar amount paid per wattcapacity of the pv system. however, cash rebates usually suffer from lack of funding. they are offered on a first-c ome, firstserved basis and are not guaranteed. srec markets are at their initial stages in the united states and few studies have been completed on them. burns and kang (2012) presented a short history of srec markets and current regulations in eight u.s. states. they performed a financial analysis for a residential case study to compare the returns on investment in existing srec markets. however, they left pennsylvania and north carolina out of their economic analysis due to the high uncertainty of srec markets there. gual and carely (2012) investigated the effectiveness of solar setasides in north carolina. they concluded that obscurity in the solar renewable energy credit price volatility and investment returns 83 srec market and uncertainty associated with current and future srec prices hinder the advancement of solar pv systems in north carolina. at the initial years of its srec market, pennsylvania had a secure solar market and achieved notable growth in its local solar industries. however, its early success was not stable and was followed by a dramatic collapse in srec prices and its solar industry (solar foundation 2016). therefore, exploring pennsylvania’s market in depth can provide insights into solar markets’ structure and help establish more functional markets. furthermore, the pennsylvania market has not been considered by either gual and carely or burns and kang. the pennsylvania srec market the pennsylvania rps program is entitled alternative energy portfolio standard (aeps) and was created by senate bill 1030 on november 30, 2004. the solar set-a side program took effect in 2007 as a result of bill 1203. pennsylvania aims for 18% green electricity by 2021, and its solar setaside is 0.5%. pennsylvania established its solar market in 2009 with the public utility commission and the pennsylvania department of environmental protection responsible for implementation of the aeps act (dsire 2014a). srecs generated in pennsylvania are valid in the year generated and the next two years. there are several regional electricity transmission grids in the united states, and pennsylvania is part of the pjm (midatlantic) region. in addition to pennsylvania, pjm interconnection is responsible for delaware, illinois, indiana, kentucky, maryland, michigan, new jersey, north carolina, ohio, tennessee, virginia, west virginia, and the district of columbia. pennsylvania’s srec market is an open market, and any facility smaller than 50 kw that is located in the pjm region can register to trade its srecs in pennsylvania’s market. however, pennsylvania’s solar electricity generators can sell their srecs only in pennsylvania and ohio. in the pjm region, new jersey was the first state to initiate an srec market (in 2005) and has the highest solar target (> 4 gw by 2025). although pennsylvania almost has the highest electricity consumption (24%) in the pjm region, it has the smallest target for solar electricity (0.5% by 2021; see figure 1) and its srec’s requirement is the smallest in the region. as noted earlier, sacp is a support mechanism to stabilize srec prices. sacp can act as a price ceiling, and if it is high enough, it could increase the srec demand and stimulate pv installment. to benefit from sacp supportive potentials, many states have defined a longterm schedule for sacp values. however, pennsylvania does not have a prefixed value for the sacp. 84 somayeh youssefi and patrick l. gurian it is calculated at the end of the compliance year (june 1 to may 31), and it is approximately twice the average saec (srec) price traded during that year. therefore, it is very difficult to predict srec prices in pennsylvania. srec price trends for markets in the pjm region are shown in figure 2. in 2011, srec values in the pennsylvania market began to decrease and dropped from an average of $290 to $10. the pennsylvania house of representatives reacted and rep. chris ross introduced house bill 1580 on october 3, 2011, to strengthen the pennsylvania srec market. the amendment would have modified the eligibility criteria and not allowed out-o f-s tate srecs to be traded in pennsylvania. furthermore, the bill required an increase in the state’s solar carve-o ut for the period from 2012 to 2015 in order to stabilize the srec market and resolve the oversupply issue (srectrade 2016d). the bill’s implementation would have increased electricity prices and would have imposed approximately $120 million in costs distributed among all residential and commercial power users in pennsylvania. however, this increase would not have exceeded fourteen cents per pennsylvanian homeowner over five years (gaul and carley 2012). still, utility providers did not support the bill and it failed, as did a similar bill, senate bill 1350, also in the 2011–2012     1.20e+09   1.20e+06   )h w m 1.00e+09   1.00e+06    ( )   hnoit 8.00e+08   8.00e+05   w p m m (   usn 6.00e+08   6.00e+05   dna o mc   eyti 4.00e+08   4.00e+05   d  cci ert rcel 2.00e+08   2.00e+05   s e 0.00e+00   0.00e+00   md   nj   pa   dc   oh   de   electricity  consumption   srec  demand   figure 1. electricity consumption and srec demands in pjm region. pennsylvania has approximately the highest electricity consumption in the mid-a tlantic region, but it has a very small solar market and it aims for 0.5% solar electricity by 2021. to find electricity consumption for each state, electricity consumption per capita is multiplied by its population. note that scales of the two axes are not similar. (h. k. trabish, “which state has the best solar rec market? greentech solar,” 2012, available at www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/which-state -has-the-best-solar-rec-market. electricity consumption per capita from u.s. energy information administration, “total energy consumed per capita,” 2016, available at www.eia.gov/state/ rankings/?sid=pa#series/12. state population from u.s. census bureau, available at www.census .gov/popest/data/national/totals/2015/index.html.) there are several regional transmission organizations in the us and pennsylvania is 129   part of the pjm (mid-atlantic) region. in addition to pennsylvania, pjm 130   interconnection is responsible to provide electricity in delaware, illinois, indiana, 131   kentucky, maryland, michigan, new jersey, north carolina, ohio, tennessee, 132   virginia, west virginia, and the district of columbia. pennsylvania s srec market 133   is an open market and any facility smaller than 50 kw that is located in the pjm 134   region can register to trade its srecs in pennsylvania s market. however, 135   pennsylvania s solar electricity can sell theirs srecs merely in pennsylvania and 136   ohio. in the pjm region, new jersey was the first state to initiate an srec market 137   (in 2005) and has the highest solar target (>4 gw by 2025). although pennsylvania 138   almost has the highest electricity consumption (24%) in the pjm region, it has the 139   smallest target for solar electricity (0.5% by 2021; see figure 1) and its srec s 140   requirement is of the smallest in the region. 141   142   figure 1. electricity consumptions and srec demands in pjm region 143   (trabish, 2012). pennsylvania has approximately the highest electricity 144   consumption in the mid-atlantic region. but it has a very small solar market 145   and it aims for 0.5% solar electricity by 2021. to find electricity 146   consumption for each state, its electricity consumption per capita (u.s. 147   solar renewable energy credit price volatility and investment returns 85 session. consequently, pennsylvania’s srec prices continued to decrease and reached $15 by the end of 2012. for energy year 2013 (june 2012 to may 2013), srecs generally fluctuated between $10 and $20. there was a rally in early 2014 with prices in the $50–$60 range in the first half of the year but falling into the $30–$40 range in the later part of the year and into early 2015. prices eroded over the course of 2015 and were at or near $10 for the first half of 2016 (flettexchange 2016; srectrade 2016a). house bill 100, which had been introduced in the 2013–2014 session and the 2015–2016 session, would also increase the srec requirements for pennsylvania (pennsylvania general assembly 2016; noucas 2013). one of the reasons for the pennsylvania market oversupply is the coincident emergence of different incentive programs. in 2009, when the pennsylvania srec market was instituted, there were two other major support programs incentivizing pv installations: the federal investment tax credit (itc) and the pennsylvania sunshine program. the itc returns pv installers 30% of their initial investment in the form of a tax credit. the pennsylvania sunshine program was initiated in 2009, and it returns 35% of the pv system installation cost in the form of rebate (dsire 2014b). the overlapping of these generous incentive programs as well as high srec prices jumpstarted the pv installation, which caused too many srecs to be generated, resulting in eventual oversupply of the market.   figure 2. srec price trends in pjm region. (from flettexchange, available at www.markets .flettexchange.com/pennsylvaniasrec/; srectrade, “pa market update,” available at www .srectrade.com/blog/tag/pasrec.) 86 somayeh youssefi and patrick l. gurian furthermore, pennsylvania’s rps requirement for pv installation is very small, and as is shown in figure 3, the capacity of pv systems installed greatly exceeded the rps mandated capacity for 2015. by the end of 2016, increases in the rps requirement were forecast to slightly exceed installed capacity but only if no new capacity were built. the prevailing srec price of $7 at the close of 2016 indicated that the market was still oversupplied (srectrade 2017). given that pennsylvania has the smallest srec requirement in the pjm region and allows outof-s tate srecs to be used to meet the pennsylvania requirement, its market is very sensitive to oversupply. when the generation capacity for srec exceeded what the rps law required utility companies to buy, there was a dramatic drop in srec prices. this may be understood by considering the shape of the supply and demand curves for srecs. as shown in figure 4, utilities will pay p* (where p* is the figure 3. pennsylvania solar rps requirement (srectrade 2016c) and current installation capacity (srectrade 2016b, 2016e, 2016f, 2016g, 2016h). the overlapping of generous incentive programs (the federal tax credit and solar sunshine rebate program) and high srec prices caused a shortterm boom in pv system installation. (from srectrade, “pennsylvania,” available at www.srectrade.com/srec_markets/pennsylvania; srectrade, “pa market update,” available at www.srectrade.com/blog/tag/pasrec; srectrade, “srec markets report: february 2013,” available at www.srectrade.com/blog/capacitysummary/srectradesrecmarketsreport -f ebruary2013; srectrade, “srectrade srec markets report,” available at www.srectrade.com/ blog/2015/12; srectrade, “pennsylvania update: srectrade markets report,” available at www .srectrade.com/blog/2015/12; srectrade, “pennsylvania update: srectrade markets report,” available at www.srectrade.com/blog/2014/12.) 600 500 400 ca pa ci ty (m w ) 300 200 100 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 the excess capacity of installed pv the required capacity of pv installakon solar renewable energy credit price volatility and investment returns 87 sacp value, the legislated penalty for failing to obtain sufficient srecs) for quantities up to q* (where q* is the legislated mandatory quantity of srecs to purchase). given that the marginal costs of generation electricity from pv panels is essentially zero (once the panels have been installed), once pv facilities are built, the generators are essentially pricetakers and generate their maximum capacity, regardless of price. this leads to a stable price p* until capacity exceeds q*, at which point the price collapses to zero. a legislative mandate increasing q* can restore price stability (at the expense of higher electricity costs) at least until installed capacity grows further. there is a great deal of volatility and risk associated with the srec market. such volatility creates a risk of stranded capital in which an investment is made under conditions conducive to a positive return but subsequent market changes erode the return on investment. in this article we conduct an economic analysis to determine whether srec prices have created a problem of stranded capital for investors. methods this section first describes briefly the assumptions we made to estimate the capital cost for a pv system. then, it offers a costbenefit analysis for the system. also, breakeven point analysis is done to determine the srec floor price. the pv system design and the cost estimation model are described fully in the supplement. short term supply curve * above rps mandated q* q yti short term supply curve t below rps mandated q* nau q p* price figure 4. srec demand curve. the solid line indicates the srec demand curve. utilities are willing to pay the sacp, p*, up to the mandated minimum quantity q*. above q*, willingness to pay declines to zero. when the short-t erm supply curve (shown by the dashed line) for srecs is below q*, the equilibrium price is p*. when the shortterm supply curve exceeds q*, the price collapses to zero.   failing to obtain sufficient srecs) for quantities up to q* (where q* is the 205   legislated mandatory quantity of srecs to purchase). given that the marginal costs 206   of generation electricity from pv panels is essentially zero (once the panels have 207   been installed), the generators are essentially price-takers and generate their 208   maximum capacity, regardless of price. this leads to a stable price p* until capacity 209   exceeds q*, at which point the price collapses to zero. a legislative mandate 210   increasing q* can restore price stability (at the expense of higher electricity costs) 211   at least until installed capacity grows further. 212   213   figure 4. srec demand curve. the solid line indicates the srec demand 214   curve. utilities are willing to pay the sacp, p*, up to the mandated 215   minimum quantity q*. above q* willingness to pay declines to zero. 216   when the short-term supply curve (shown by the dashed line) for srecs 217   is below q*, the equilibrium price is p*. when the short-term supply 218   curve exceeds q*, the price collapses to zero. 219   220   according to figure 3, based on the present installed pv capacity, pennsylvania s 221   market will be oversupplied until 2015. it can be inferred that in order to stabilize 222   the srec market, pv installation must be controlled. since, pennsylvania has the 223   smallest srec requirement in the pjm region, and it allows out-of-state srecs to 224   be used to meet pa srec requirements, its market is very sensitive to oversupply. 225   figure x. the solid line indicates the srec demand curve. utilities are willing to pay the sacp, p*, up to the mandated minimum quantity q*. above q* willingness to pay declines to zero. when the short term supply curve (shown by the dashed line) for srecs is below q* the equilibrium price is p*. when the short term supply curve exceeds q* the price collapses to zero. 88 somayeh youssefi and patrick l. gurian cost estimation model residential pv systems usually have power between 2 and 10 kwp (burns and kang 2012). we have assumed the mean value of 6 kwp for the pv array size. furthermore, it is assumed that the pv system is connected to the electric grid. therefore, there is no need for storage batteries and the system can benefit from the net metering. on sunny days when generated electricity exceeds the building’s demand, surplus energy can be fed to the grid, and on cloudy days when the amount of energy produced does not meet the building’s electricity requirement, grid electricity will be used. economic analysis the objectives of the economic analysis are 1) to find out if the asset’s benefits would outweigh the costs during the lifetime of the pv system and 2) to determine the required srec value to allow investors to recoup their costs. financial criteria used in this study are net present value (npv) and time to achieve zero project balance. a positive npv indicates that a pv system project’s discounted cash inflows during the pv system’s lifetime exceed the discounted cash outflows. time to achieve zero project balance is the duration needed for an investor to gain back their initial investment. the shorter this time is, the more profitable the project is. to find npv, the annual cash f low of the system must be calculated. annual cash flow is the difference between the cash inflows and outflows during any year. the srec revenue, electricity savings, and incentives are the inflows to the system. depending on the location, different incentives are available. in this study we consider the federal investment tax credit. however, we ignore statelevel programs such as rebates, grants, and loans because they are not always available. during the lifetime of a pv system, it requires maintenance and insurance, which are outflows and are negative. the pv system annual cash flows can be estimated as follows: v cfn = srec * ep 1000 + ve * ep + ftc + stc – cm – ci eq.(1) where cfn is the cash flows in year n, vsrec is the annual average price of srec in $/mwh in year n, ep is the amount of produced electricity in kwh in year n and ve is the electricity price per kwh in year n. ftc is the federal tax credit in dollars (as a percentage of the initial cost) assumed to be paid at the end of the first year. stc is the state tax credit if it is available. only solar renewable energy credit price volatility and investment returns 89 maryland has a tax credit for pv installers. it gives $0.0085/kwh for the produced electricity for the first five years of pv system (dsire 2014c). cm and ci are the annual maintenance and insurance fees, and they are 0.5% of the pv system capital cost (burns and kang 2012). electricity price is not constant and is based on a 20year average escalation rate reported by burns and kang (2012). srec, electricity prices, and the electricity escalation rates are shown in table 1. to calculate the net present value of the pv system, annual cash flows during the lifetime of the pv system are first discounted, then they are summed, and finally the initial investment, c0, is subtracted as illustrated in eq.(2). npv = cfn 1 + i n n – c0 eq.(2) n = 1 the discount rate is i and n is the project lifespan, which is 25 years. the discount rate used in this study is 3% (burns and kang 2012). project balance at early years of the pv system is negative due to the substantial initial investment. it gradually increases because of savings of electricity production and table 1. electricity prices, escalation rates, and srec prices used in this study; pv capital costs; npvs; and payback times for a pv system with a capacity of 6 kw located in different states state electricity pricea ($/kwh) electricity escalation ratea srec priceb ($/mwh) pv capital cost ($/watt) npv ($) time to zero project balance (year) dc 0.1401 0.002807 480 5.88 60920 7 de 0.1380 0.002199 25 5.62 –5102 not within project lifetime md 0.1432 0.002329 140 5.9 –4517 not within project lifetime nj 0.1657 0.001778 131 5.94 32031 10 oh 0.1132 0.000178 16 5.87 –18282 not within project lifetime pa 0.1270 0.000735 10.75 5.99 –11596 not within project lifetime a source: j. e. burns and j. s. kang, “comparative economic analysis of supporting policies for residential solar pv in the united states: solar renewable energy credit (srec) potential,” energy policy 44 (2012): 217–225. b source: srectrade, historical srec prices and historical price charts, 2016, available at www .srectrade.com/srec_markets/, accessed june 17, 2016. 90 somayeh youssefi and patrick l. gurian srec generation. time to zero project balance, pb, is the first time when the project balance becomes equal or bigger than zero: cfn 1 + i n pb – c0 = 0 eq.(3) n = 1 also, in order to find the required srec value to allow investors to recoup their costs in different states, a breakeven point analysis is done. this threshold is the minimum srec price required to make the net present value greater than zero at the end of the pv system’s lifetime, 25 years. any factor in eq.(1) that affects the npv can affect the breakeven point value: the capital cost, electricity price, the amount of produced electricity, maintenance and insurance fees, federal and state tax credits. one factor that affects the srec breakeven point and is not apparent in eq.(1) is the pv system size: the smaller a pv system is, the higher initial investment per watt ($/watt) it requires. to find srec floors, we first estimated the capital cost of pv systems with capacities between 2–10 kwp using the model developed in this article. we then calculated the npv with ascending values of srec and recorded the value where npv became positive. results and discussion table 1 outlines the capital cost of the system, npv and time to achieve zero project balance (discounted payback time) for each of the states. also, electricity price, electricity escalation rates, and srec prices used in economic analysis are illustrated in table 1. the project balance of the system over time for each state is shown in figure 5. unlike the analysis of burn and kang (2012), which found that the initial investment would be recovered in all states approximately within 15 years, our study shows that in four states (delaware, maryland, ohio, and pennsylvania) current market prices do not allow for positive return on investment. only in the district of columbia and new jersey the returns on investment happen within 7 and 10 years respectively. consequently, there is a concern that past pv investments have become stranded capital in the other four states. npv calculations are based on srec prices in june 2016, and it is assumed that they will be constant and equal to the values reported in table 1 during the lifetime of the pv system. pv installation is economically beneficial only in the district of columbia and new jersey. the reason for the success of the district of columbia, and new jersey is the higher value of srecs ($480 and $279.50, respectively) in these markets compared with other states. this is solar renewable energy credit price volatility and investment returns 91 an indication of the important role of srec in pv system cost recovery. as illustrated in figure 5, pennsylvania and ohio are the worst states for pv installation. they are both severely oversupplied, and there is a high risk of stranded capital. pennsylvania and ohio cannot recover their initial investments due to the oversupplied market and low srec prices. one reason for the severe oversupply in these states is that their srec markets are both open and accept srecs from outofstate facilities. however, ohio accepts outofstate srecs at a lower price than in-s tate srecs. until november 2015, a total of 523.3 mw pv systems were certified in pennsylvania. a considerable percentage, 58% (301.9 mw), of the total pennsylvania certifications were from out-o f-s tate facilities (srectrade 2016h). this percentage has increased from the similar period in 2014 and 2013 where 43% (160.5 mw out of a total of 370.4 mw) and 41% (126.6 out of 311.9 mw) of the certifications were for facilities outside of pennsylvania. apparently, pennsylvania is attracting out-o f-s tate pv installation rather than supporting local solar industry. therefore, one way to support pennsylvania’s oversupplied market could be to ban out-o f-s tate srec transactions in the pennsylvania market. however, senate bill 1350 would have continued to allow outofstate srecs certification. figure 5. project balance of pv system investments by jurisdiction. 80000 60000 )$ 40000 te m ( sy e s h 20000 f t ce o nala 0 b -20000 year -40000 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 pa nj md dc de oh 92 somayeh youssefi and patrick l. gurian while maryland, ohio, and delaware have predetermined values for sacp, srec markets in these states are still oversupplied. therefore, it can be concluded that the sacp mechanism is not enough to stabilize srec markets at a reasonable price that assures investment return (as would be expected from figure 1, pushing the vertical portion of the demand curve to the right does not avoid the sharp drop to zero above the mandated minimum quantity). according to the historical srec prices shown in figure 2, srec prices have been falling continually in all of the states except the district of columbia and new jersey. prices in the district of columbia have been stable since 2013, and the reason for its high prices is that it is the only undersupplied srec market. its 2015 rps requirement was approximately 66 mw of which only 37.9 mw have been fulfilled (srectrade 2016i). new jersey has the oldest and largest srec market in the pjm region, and it also supports pv installation by defining a prefixed sacp. it can be concluded that setting aggressive solar carveout, which prevents oversupply of the market, promotes pv installation. as mentioned earlier, another means to provide price stability would be to mandate a lower limit on the srec price. to find the minimum srec value that allows investors to recoup their costs in different states, a breakeven point analysis was done and the chart of the breakeven points versus system size for different states is illustrated in figure 6. as the pv system size decreases, the installation cost per watt ($/watt) increases and higher srec prices are needed. the difference in srec breakeven prices for different states is due to the different hours of sunshine in each state and also different energy prices. for a system of a certain size, the more sunshine hours a state has, the more electricity will be generated. consequently more srecs are generated and a lower srec price is needed to recover the upfront costs. also, states with higher electricity prices are better suited for pv systems, because they gain more cash inflows from selling electricity to the grid and consequently they require less incentive to recover the initial investment. as can be seen in figure 6, in pennsylvania, if the srec price falls under $195/mwh, pv systems with small capacities of 2kwp (the low end of the residential size range) will not be able to recover their capital investments. even systems at the high end of the residential size range (10 kwp) require around $150/srec to break even in pennsylvania and ohio, while more favorable insolation and electricity costs reduce this to roughly $75–$100/srec in maryland, new jersey, washington dc, and delaware. all these breakeven prices are far above the early 2016 market price of about $10/mwh in pennsylvania. as noted earlier, the failed senate bill 1350 defined an sacp of $285 per srec until 2019 and then decreases this value by 2% annually. over 25 years solar renewable energy credit price volatility and investment returns 93 (a pv system’s lifetime), the average value of sacp will be $248 per srec, and this alternative compliance value is higher than the breakeven point of $195/ srec. the breakeven analysis above suggests that the sacp is high enough to stimulate investment in solar pv systems. however, taking into account the pennsylvania oversupplied srec market (in which generation capacity is three times greater than the rps requirement) and the absence of incentive to purchase srecs beyond the mandated minimum (figure 1), prices may not recover until the rps mandate reaches current capacity in 2016. at that point srec prices should recover, potentially providing incentive for further pv system installation. this might lead to a subsequent oversupply and price collapse. the collapse could be mitigated by providing a series of increasing rps goals that take into account the performance of the solar market in previous years. this would provide the market with price signals that demand is saturated while continuing to provide some level of price support once initial rps goals are met. experiences in other states may provide some guidance as to how pennsylvania might address this situation. like pennsylvania, the massachusetts market was oversupplied in 2012 and 2013. the massachusetts department of energy resources (doer) created the srec market in january 2010, and only instate solar photovoltaic installations smaller than 60 kw are eligible   figure 6. srec price breakeven values as a function of the system size. 250    ) 200  h w m/$ 150  (  ecirp   100  cers 50   0   0   2   4   6   8   10   12   pv  system  power  (kwp)   pa   oh   nj   de   dc   md   their capital investments. this srec price is far above the late 2013 market price of 379   $19/mwh. 380   381   figure 6. srec price breakeven values as a function of the system size. 382    383   the new senate bill (sb 1350) will allow solar thermal facilities to register for 384   srec tracking in pennsylvania. this merits further discussion. according to the 385   nrel report of nov 2010, the levelized cost of energy (lcoe) for solar thermal 386   facilities in 2015 is predicted to be $181/mwh while lcoe for pv systems will be 387   $270/mwh (tidball et al., 2010). lcoe is the investment required to install a 388   renewable energy system divided by its expected energy output during its lifetime. 389   the initial capital cost, discounted rate and maintenance cost are included in lcoe. 390   since the cost of energy production for solar thermal facilities is considerably 391   smaller than pv systems, investing in solar thermal is favored over pv modules. 392   this may cause another boom in srecs generation and flood the srec market 393   with thermally generated srecs, while past investments in pv remain stranded. if 394   thermal facilities are intended to participate in the srec market, it is essential to 395   94 somayeh youssefi and patrick l. gurian to register in the massachusetts market (dsire 2014d). massachusetts has a unique method to define its solar setaside, which helps it maintain its solar market balance. at the end of the year, if there are still unsold srecs in the market, they are deposited in the solar credit clearinghouse auction (scca). the scca encompasses three rounds of auctions with prices fixed at $300/ srec minus a 5% administrative fee. if at the end of the third round, the auction is not cleared, then the doer increases the solar carveout for the coming compliance year by the amount of unsold srecs (greentech solar 2014). this is a very intelligent way of controlling the market balance: by adjusting the next year’s solar requirement based on the previous year’s market performance, it is guaranteed that the srec demand in the market is high enough to maintain the prices and also stimulate new pv installations. conclusion this study explored the developments within pennsylvania’s solar industry following the rps solar setaside implementation. pennsylvania has almost the highest electricity consumption in the mid-a tlantic region; however, it has the smallest target for solar electricity. the pennsylvania market remained oversupplied at the close of 2016/start of 2017, based on the srec market price of $7 noted above. the current support mechanisms, including sacp, have not been successful in establishing a stable market in pennsylvania. one reason for the pennsylvania market oversupply is the overlapping of different upfront incentive programs that caused a boom in solar installation and saturated the market. therefore, to maintain a stable solar market, it is important to coordinate upfront incentives with prospective srec revenues. furthermore, pennsylvania’s solar market is an open market and an increasing percentage of srecs retired in pennsylvania come from outofstate facilities. however, the planned modifications to support the solar market still allow outofstate facilities to register in pennsylvania. to strengthen the pennsylvania market, it may be necessary to consider banning outofstate srecs or adopt mechanisms that encourage utility companies to buy from instate solar electricity generators rather than out of state generators. this study proposed a simple conceptual supply and demand model in which suppliers are pricetakers and demand is completely inelastic until the required rps quota is met, at which point srec demand collapses. this simple conceptual model accounts for the observed trends of srec oversupply and price collapse. we developed an economic model that suggests returns are negative for investments in pv in four of the six jurisdictions considered, given market prices for srecs in early 2016. solar renewable energy credit price volatility and investment returns 95 our analysis shows that the current srec market in pennsylvania has not been successful. the srec market is not stable and pv installers are at the risk of losing their investment. to encourage solar electricity, it is important to provide a secure srec price throughout the life span of the pv system. regulations could mandate that utility companies sign longterm contracts with srec producers to provide them with guaranteed srec prices. one solution to the market’s oversupply is to increase the solar target. planned increases in the rps quotas offer the prospect of restoring prices to profitable levels as the proposed sacp values exceed the breakeven values needed for pv investors. however, without some minimum price support or limits on the quantity of installations, the problem may simply be repeated. we could again witness a completely inelastic demand followed by a price collapse once the mandated rps quota is met. to establish a stable market, solar setaside is better determined annually by taking into account the previous year’s market performance. furthermore, to define a minimum price support for srec, mechanisms similar to the massachusetts auction can be adopted. at the end of the year, unsold srecs can be deposited to the auction. it is important that the auction prices be higher than the breakeven point value to assure the return of the investment to the solar electricity generators. if there are still unsold srecs, they would be added to the next year solar set-a side quota. references agnolucci, paolo. 2007. “the importance and the policy impacts of 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bolinger, and heather raitt. 2005. “does it have to be this hard? implementing the nation’s most complex renewables portfolio standard.” electricity journal 18 (october): 55–67. wiser, ryan, kevin porter, and robert grace. 2005. “evaluating experience with renewables portfolio standards in the united states.” mitigation and adaptive strategies for global change 10 (april): 237–263. somayeh youssefi, phd, is a postdoctoral researcher in the school of public health at the university of maryland. she has a phd in environmental engineering, and her research interests include environmental issues, renewable energies, aerosols, bioaerosols, and exhaled-breath biomarkers. her recent study involves design and development of a sampler to collect exhaled-breath aerosols. these aerosols, which originate from the lung and respiratory tract, contain various biomarkers that can inform us about an individual’s health, as well as his or her environmental exposures. patrick l. gurian, phd, is an associate professor in the department of civil, architectural, and environmental engineering at drexel university. his research involves the application of mathematical models to evaluate alternative regulatory frameworks and resource management strategies. his recent work includes the development of a report for the city of philadelphia’s office of sustainability that identifies strategies for reducing the city’s greenhouse gas emissions. 1 the disenfranchisement of black pennsylvanians in the 1838 state constitution: racism, politics, or economics?—a statistical analysis david a. latzko pennsylvania state university, york campus delegates to pennsylvania’s state constitutional convention in 1837–38 approved an amendment limiting the right to vote to “white freemen.” some scholars argue that simple racism explains this decision. others emphasize the partisan nature of the issue of black suffrage or the economic rivalry between blacks and whites for jobs. this article quantitatively examines the factors affecting how convention delegates voted on black suffrage. the delegates’ political affiliation and the share of free blacks in the populations of the delegates’ home counties are robust determinants of how the delegates voted. democrats voted to disenfranchise black pennsylvanians. delegates from counties with proportionally large black populations opposed disenfranchisement. in 1838, pennsylvania’s voters approved a state constitution that restricted the right to vote to “white freemen.” blacks had voted for many years in some parts of the state, but under the new constitution pennsylvania’s black males could no longer vote. eric ledell smith (1998, 279) maintains that “scholarship on this topic has failed to give us a complete and cohesive picture of why disenfranchisement occurred in pennsylvania.” some historians argue that simple racism explains why delegates to the state’s constitutional convention voted to deny blacks the franchise. for example, mueller (1969, 37) contends that “in the closing days of the convention party lines were forgotten, prejudice was appealed to, and the clause was altered by the insertion of the word ‘white’ by a large non-partisan vote.” 2 disenfranchisement of black pennsylvanians brown (1970, 22) similarly notes that the convention vote “seems to have been largely a matter of responding to growing race prejudice in the state.” other scholars emphasize the partisan nature of the issue of black suffrage in pennsylvania (smith 1998). still others point to the economic rivalry “between negroes and the irish immigrants for the same menial jobs” as a contributing factor (brown 1970, 27–28). because the reasons for disenfranchising blacks in the state constitution of 1838 are disputed (malone 2008), examining the factors that influenced the votes of convention delegates on this issue is an important step in understanding the state’s political and economic history. despite the intense debate, no scholars have employed formal statistical analyses to test their hypotheses about why delegates to the state’s constitutional convention voted to strip black males of the franchise. this article offers statistical and econometric tests of voting behavior at the constitutional convention. the 1790 pennsylvania constitution gave the right to vote to “every freeman of the age of twenty-one years, having resided in the state two years next before the election, and within that time paid a state or county tax, which shall have been assessed at least six months before the election” (commonwealth of pennsylvania 1790, article iii, section i). in practice, voting rights for blacks depended on the policies of local officials, meaning that blacks voted in some counties but not in others. “blacks voted in bucks, york, dauphin, cumberland, juniata, westmoreland and allegheny counties, whereas in philadelphia, the county with the largest black population, the officials refused to assess blacks for the purpose of taxation, thereby denying them the right to vote” (price 1976, 357). as a result of such policies and the tax requirement, the majority of black men in pennsylvania were not able to vote (price 1973, 92). the political status of black pennsylvanians was not a public issue before the state constitutional convention assembled in may 1837. agitation for a new state constitution had erupted periodically over several decades. finally, in 1835, voters approved a referendum calling for a constitutional convention. reformers generally wished to reduce the governor’s appointment power, to permit direct election of state officers, and to abolish life tenure for judges (akagi 1924, 309). reformers also objected to the power of the state legislature to charter corporations and to authorize banks to issue notes (snyder 1958, 96). on may 2, 1837, the 133 delegates to the constitutional convention convened in harrisburg. the delegates included 66 democrats, 52 antimasons, and 15 whigs, giving a narrow majority to the coalition of antimasons and whigs. the article on suffrage reported to the convention on may 17 was practically the same as the text of the 1790 constitution, except that the tax qualification was removed. neither the committee report nor the report of the committee’s minority contained a racial restriction on voting. 3 david a. latzko the suffrage article was taken up on june 19.1 john sterigere, a democrat from montgomery county, moved to strike the report of the committee and insert instead a clause restricting the franchise to “every free white male citizen” who had “paid a state, county, road or poor tax” (commonwealth of pennsylvania 1837–38, 2:472). he argued that this racial restriction was proper, “as it was the language of some seventeen or eighteen constitutions in the union” (commonwealth of pennsylvania 1837–38, 2:472). phineas jenks, a bucks county whig, moved to eliminate the word “white” from sterigere’s amendment. jenks said there were black individuals in bucks county worth between $20,000 and $100,000; and it would be improper for someone with such a stake in society to be excluded from exercising the franchise commonwealth of pennsylvania 1837–38, 2:476). benjamin martin, a democrat from philadelphia county, opposed the motion to strike the word “white” from the amendment, warning that any attempt to amend the constitution to place the black population on an equal footing with the white population, would prove ruinous to the black people. he was certain that in the county of philadelphia any attempt of the black population to exercise the right of suffrage would bring ruin upon their own heads. (commonwealth of pennsylvania 1837–38, 2:477) james merrill, an anti-mason from union county, argued that according to the u.s. constitution every man who was not a fugitive from justice was a free man. “was it possible,” merrill asked, “that freemen who possessed property . . . were not allowed to vote, on account of their complexion. if there were men in pennsylvania so situated, he would like to know under what sort of government we had been living––what kind of freedom we were supposed to enjoy, and whether we deserved to continue free under such an extraordinary state of things” (commonwealth of pennsylvania 1837–38, 2:478). merrill also worried that because the word “white” was vague, too much discretion would fall to the judges of elections. the debate ended temporarily when sterigere withdrew his motion. edward price (1973, 104) says the proponents of racial exclusion feared that they might not be able to win a vote on the amendment. on june 23, benjamin martin moved to amend sterigere’s proposal by adding the provision that “the rights of an elector shall in no case extend to anyone but free white male citizens” (commonwealth of pennsylvania 1837–38, 3:83). he argued that his amendment was necessary because of the rapid increase in the number of blacks in pennsylvania. the failure to make native americans equal to whites, martin remarked, belied the promise to blacks that they could achieve equality with whites. he further warned that if pennsylvania allowed blacks to vote, the state would attract free blacks and runaway slaves from the southern states. 4 disenfranchisement of black pennsylvanians john dickey, a whig from beaver county, said he was sure his constituents did not expect the issue of voting rights for blacks to come up; he thus desired no action on it. yet he demanded that martin explain what he meant by “white” and whether “all the various shades, departing from white and carnation, are to be disfranchised” (commonwealth of pennsylvania 1837–38, 3:86). john mccahen, a philadelphia democrat, noted that at the state constitutional convention in 1790 albert gallatin “thought that the word ‘white’ was too indefinite; that it might exclude him from the enjoyment of the rights of a voter; and upon his suggestion, the word was stricken out” (commonwealth of pennsylvania 1837–38, 3:87). charles brown, a philadelphia democrat, countered that other states that had restricted the franchise to white males had no difficulty determining who was eligible to vote. besides, brown contended, the principle had been established that “no negro could become a citizen of the united states” (commonwealth of pennsylvania 1837–38, 3:89). george woodward, a democrat from luzerne county, objected to martin’s proposal because there was a case currently pending before the state supreme court on the question whether blacks had a right to vote under the current state constitution (fogg v. hobbs).2 he counseled the convention delegates to wait for the court’s decision, due the next month, before taking up the issue. brown replied that it was for the people, not the courts, to decide who had the right of suffrage. the amendment to restrict the vote to “free white males” was rejected by a vote of 61–49. twelve democrats joined a large number of whigs and anti-masons to vote “no,” whereas 43 democrats and 6 members of the anti-mason/whig coalition voted to restrict the franchise to white males. the voting rights of black pennsylvanians were temporarily preserved. the convention considered other matters up to july 14 when it adjourned until october 17, 1837. on october 10, 1837, the democratic candidates lost five of six electoral contests in bucks county to their whig and other anti-van burenite opponents. several of the races were exceedingly close; the democratic candidate for auditor lost by just two votes. the democratic party challenged the results, alleging that the anti-van burenite coalition prevailed only because of illegal votes by blacks. w.e.b. du bois ([1899] 2007, 258) wrote that the “friends of exclusion now began systematic efforts to stir up public opinion.” public meetings were held throughout the county to organize against black suffrage (rosenberger 1974, 30–31; smith 1998, 289–291). citizens in bucks county submitted to the constitutional convention memorials against black suffrage. the defeated candidates asked a judge in bucks county to overturn the election results because of the votes of 39 blacks who, the losers alleged, had no right to vote. in december 1837 judge john fox announced his 5 david a. latzko ruling (price 1976, 359). the central question was whether blacks were “freemen” under pennsylvania law. fox reviewed documents as old as william penn’s original charter and concluded that because there was no evidence that blacks had ever been thought to possess the rights of freemen, they could not vote. on november 16, 1837, john sterigere presented a petition from citizens of bucks county advocating a constitutional provision prohibiting black suffrage. referring to the previous month’s disputed election, sterigere argued that blacks “could not be placed on an equality in political and social rights, with white citizens” (commonwealth of pennsylvania 1837–38, 4:414). after some debate over the political status of blacks in pennsylvania, the convention voted overwhelmingly to print the petition. robert mittrick (1985, 28) notes that “the debate strongly suggested what a vote (84–29) in favor of printing the petition confirmed, that the anti-negro forces had indeed gained support and perhaps were now in the majority.” on january 17, 1838, benjamin martin moved to amend the suffrage clause by inserting the word “white” before the word “freeman” in the first and seventh lines. martin said he had no hostility to the coloured man; on the contrary, no person would go further to protect them in all their natural rights . . . but to hold out to them social rights, or to incorporate them with ourselves in the exercise of the right of franchise, is a violation of the law of nature and would lead to . . . the resentment of the white population. . . . the divisionary line between the races, is so strongly marked by the creator, that it is unwise and cruelly unjust, in any way, to amalgamate them, for it must be apparent to every well judging person, that the elevation of the black is the degradation of the white man; and by endeavoring to alter the order of nature, we would, in all probability, bring about a war between the races. (commonwealth of pennsylvania 1837–38, 9:321) the debate continued until january 20 with speaker after speaker making the same arguments. opponents of black suffrage continued to insist that blacks were not citizens under either the state or the federal constitution and therefore did not have the right to vote. even if they did have that right, public opinion demanded that they have it no longer, for white pennsylvanians “are for continuing this commonwealth, what it always has been, a political community of white persons”; and they were opposed to “investing our own negroes with this valuable right, and to a policy which will bring upon us hords [sic] of negroes from other states” (commonwealth of pennsylvania 1837–38, 9:357). opponents accordingly asserted that a violent backlash would be provoked if blacks were granted the franchise. charles brown, a democrat representing a district in philadelphia with 3,000 to 4,000 blacks, 6 disenfranchisement of black pennsylvanians predicted that “in twenty-four hours from the time that an attempt should be made by blacks to vote, not a negro house in the city or county would be left standing” (commonwealth of pennsylvania 1837–38, 9:393). supporters of voting rights for blacks continued to argue that the word “white” was too vague, that blacks were freemen and entitled to vote under the state constitution, and that violence would not result from blacks exercising the right to vote. “although the arguments had been presented before, the debate became extremely emotional, and tensions were at the breaking point. the few men who maintained cool heads were unable to calm the antagonists” (price 1973, 115). finally, the vote was taken and the amendment to insert the word “white” was adopted by a vote of 77–45. only three democrats voted against the motion; 19 whigs and anti-masons joined 58 democrats in supporting it.3 efforts to soften the restriction failed. with the narrow approval of the new state constitution by voters that october, black pennsylvanians lost the right to vote. data and methods this article examines quantitatively why black voters lost their suffrage rights in the 1838 pennsylvania constitution. limiting the franchise to “white freemen” was part of a package of controversial changes to the state constitution submitted to the electorate in october 1838 and approved by a vote of 113,971 to 112,759. indeed, black disenfranchisement was the least controversial change proposed by the convention. charles snyder (1958, 105) argues that the “growing force of anti-negro prejudice in the state was clearly revealed by the overwhelming backing which was given to this amendment. . . . no other alteration cut so completely across party lines or received such decisive support.” the decisive vote to disenfranchise blacks occurred at the constitutional convention on january 20, 1838. explaining it requires ascertaining why the 122 delegates voted 77–45 to restrict the suffrage to white men. for revealing the relationship between the delegates’ personal and constituent interests and their voting on black suffrage, the dependent variable is the vote a delegate cast on january 20 on the motion to insert the word “white” before the word “freeman” in the suffrage clause of the proposed state constitution. the dependent variable has a value of 1 if the delegate voted in favor of disenfranchising black voters and 0 if the delegate voted against the motion. voting patterns are estimated using the general specification v = f(p, c), where v is the dummy variable representing a delegate’s vote on the black disenfranchisement amendment, p is a set of delegate-specific variables, and c is a set of measures of the characteristics of the county represented by the delegate. where the delegate represented multiple counties, the variables reflect the characteristics of his county of residence. 7 david a. latzko racial prejudice and violence increased in pennsylvania during the 1820s and 1830s (du bois [1899] 2007, 15–18; nash 1988, 273–279; winch 1988, 130–152). much of it was directed against abolitionists, with the most notorious event perhaps being the burning of pennsylvania hall in may 1838 (brown 1970, 24–28). radical abolitionists had found it difficult to find meeting places because churches and public halls increasingly refused them entrance. so a group of philadelphians built an auditorium that would be open to antislavery and other reform groups. the hall opened on may 14, 1838. on the evening of may 16 a public meeting devoted to the discussion of slavery convened, during which a noted female abolitionist, angelina grimke weld, gave an address to a group of men and women of both races. it was not regarded as proper at that time for women to give speeches to mixed gender audiences. a mob gathered outside the hall to shout insults and throw stones at the windows. on may 17 the hall allowed a meeting of a national women’s antislavery group. rumors spread that white women had been seen walking arm in arm with black men to and from events held at pennsylvania hall. a mob once again gathered outside the hall. at one point the mayor of philadelphia appeared in person to plead with the mob to disperse. the mob later broke into the building and set fire to the hall. extinguishing only the adjacent buildings, fire companies made no effort to save pennsylvania hall. the next night more rioting occurred outside a building occupied by a newspaper friendly to abolitionists, and a black orphanage was burned. against this background, the transcript of the debate over ending black suffrage cannot be read without concluding that racism played some role in the outcome. john sterigere, the leader of the antiblack delegates, declared blacks to be physically and morally an inferior species of population. they are incompetent by nature . . . to exercise this valuable privilege. . . . the god of nature has made them a distinct, inferior caste, and placed a mark on them too visible to be disregarded. the evidence of their inferiority is everywhere. . . . they are also a debased and degraded portion of our population. . . . is it proper to confer this important right . . . upon such an inferior, low, degraded and ignorant mass as our black population? is the right of suffrage so little prized by us, that we are willing to share it with the scum and outcasts of the negro population of other states? if the black population had sufficient capacity to exercise the right of voting, their colour and other circumstances must prevent any amalgamation or association with the white population. . . . it is an insult to the white man to propose this association, and ask him to go to the polls, and exercise the right of a freeman with negroes. our antipathies are too great to 8 disenfranchisement of black pennsylvanians allow such an association, and if attempted, will produce conflicts and bloodsheds at our elections, where all must meet, and on the same day. (commonwealth of pennsylvania 1837–38, 9:364–65) according to edward turner (1912, 189), “the really decisive factors, in the convention at any rate, were the general dislike of the negro in pennsylvania, and the general prejudice against him.” speaker after speaker echoed the same themes: that blacks were inferior to whites, that racial amalgamation was to be feared, that black suffrage would attract southern blacks to the state, and that violence against black citizens would result from their attempting to vote. i test six racial variables: the percentage of county population in 1840 accounted for by free black persons; the growth rate of the free black population between 1830 and 1840; the distance from philadelphia to the county seat; a dummy variable taking a value of 1 if the county borders delaware, maryland, or virginia; a dummy variable taking a value of 1 if blacks customarily voted in the county; and a variable measuring the partisan competitiveness of the county. conflict theories of racial prejudice imply that whites perceive the heightened presence and visibility of blacks to be a political and economic threat (blalock 1967; key 1949). indeed, marylee taylor (1998) finds that white racial hostility rises as the black population in an area increases. if delegate voting behavior reflected the preferences and prejudices of their constituents, then both the percentage of free black persons in the county population and the growth rate of the free black population are expected to increase the probability that a delegate voted to disenfranchise blacks. just over 40% of the state’s free blacks lived in philadelphia; 58% resided in the five counties comprising southeastern pennsylvania. if the proximity of blacks to whites increases white racial prejudice, then this prejudice would be strongest in the counties closest to philadelphia and weaken the farther the distance from philadelphia. the fear that suffrage rights would attract blacks from the south would be most keenly felt in counties along pennsylvania’s southern border, so delegates from these counties ought to have been more likely than other delegates to support black disenfranchisement. blacks had been voting in several counties: allegheny, bucks, cumberland, dauphin, juniata, luzerne, westmoreland, and york (commonwealth of pennsylvania 1837–38, 9:380). being accustomed to blacks exercising the right to vote, delegates from these counties were perhaps less likely to support black disenfranchisement. opponents of black suffrage denied that blacks were equal to whites. such people would not want black votes to determine the outcome of elections. accordingly, the more politically competitive a county is, the more decisive are its black voters. i create a variable to measure 9 david a. latzko the political competition in a county by taking the absolute value of the difference between 50 and the percentage of the county vote received by the democratic candidate in the gubernatorial race in 1838. this number was then subtracted from 100. the greater the resulting value, the greater the political competition in the county. regardless of political affiliation, racial ascriptivists from politically competitive counties were more likely than other people to support limiting the vote to white freemen. although the standard pennsylvania history text (klein and hoogenboom 1980, 148) refers to the vote on black suffrage as “nonpartisan,” partisan politics figured into the debate over black suffrage (malone 2008, 72–82; smith 1998, 280). black votes were alleged to have determined the outcome of the 1837 elections in bucks county (rosenberger 1974). democrats believed that blacks would overwhelmingly vote for whigs and antimasons. john sterigere asked, but what is to be [the] effect of this negro suffrage? the memorial presented on behalf of the coloured people, says the effect of this amendment would be to deprive 40,000 of their rights. i presume that is about the number of blacks in this state. that number would produce 10,000 voters. these will, in the mass, join one of the great political parties, or be controlled by some political demagogue, or modern abolitionist, and must become the umpire between the two great political parties of the state. (commonwealth of pennsylvania 1837–38, 9:365) democrats, then, would be more likely than non-democrats to vote in favor of eliminating black voting rights. in addition to a dummy variable denoting whether the delegate was a democrat, i test four other political variables. one tests for the interaction between the democrat dummy variable and the political-competition variable described above. democrats from competitive areas were likely to support disenfranchisement on partisan political grounds rather than on the basis of political philosophy or racial prejudice. the constitutional convention also voted to retain the tax qualification for voters. as rebecca keister (2005, 47) notes, both the tax qualification and black suffrage votes were concerned with whether “a group of men who were neglected members of society, by 1838 standards, should vote.” those delegates favoring elimination of the tax qualification may have possessed an inclusive view of citizenship and political rights and may have favored black suffrage for philosophical reasons. the variable takes a value of 1 if the delegate voted to remove the tax qualification for voting; otherwise, its value is 0. i posit a negative relationship between votes on the tax and race requirements for voting. that is, those delegates who voted against eliminating the tax qualification would be expected to vote in favor of black disenfranchisement. 10 disenfranchisement of black pennsylvanians i also test the percentage of the county vote for the democratic candidate for governor in the 1838 election and expect it to be positively related to support for black disenfranchisement. another political variable measures the percentage of adults in the county, both white and black and male and female, that voted in the 1838 gubernatorial election. this variable is intended to capture the extent to which citizens participate in democratic decision making. i expect it to be negatively related to a vote against black suffrage. communities in which a large fraction of the population participates in political activities are less likely to deny some of their members their political rights. blacks did organize to protest and prevent disenfranchisement (smith 1998, 292–96). mancur olson’s (1965) classic study suggests that collective action is more difficult to organize in large groups than in small groups. population density may strengthen the social interactions necessary for collective action. counties with a high black-population density may have experienced more effective black protest against disenfranchisement, implying that delegates from these counties would have been less likely to support black disenfranchisement. economic issues may also have played a role in the vote. ira brown (1970, 22) writes, “another factor was the continuing influx to pennsylvania of slaves and freedmen from the states to the south. this element competed with recent immigrants from europe for jobs which were becoming scarcer in the wake of the panic of 1837.” the panic of 1837 began on may 10 when banks in new york city refused to redeem their notes in coin. when the news reached philadelphia late that evening, the city’s leading bankers met and agreed to suspend specie payments immediately (cyril 1940, 78). banks needed to reduce the volume of loans and increase reserves until it became possible to resume and maintain specie payments. therefore, both money and credit became scarce. the resulting recession brought prices down to the lowest recorded level in the nation’s history (cyril 1940, 79). manufacturing output fell. in the fall of 1837, 90% of factories in the east were reported closed (rezneck 1935, 665). annual production at the baldwin locomotive works in philadelphia fell nearly by half (clark 1966, 435). unemployment rose. in august 1837 a new york newspaper reported that 500 men had applied in a single day in answer to an advertisement for 20 spade laborers (rezneck 1935, 664). the baldwin works laid off about one-third of its 300 workers (clark 1966, 435). suffering was extensive. in 1837, a committee in philadelphia recommended that the state set up public granaries and coal yards where consumers might purchase those necessities at cost; another committee was appointed to beg for the poor who were “dying of want” (rezneck 1935, 667). i test seven economic variables. the first three are the manufacturing density in the county as measured by the total capital invested in 11 david a. latzko manufacturing, the density of agricultural employment in the county, and county population density. all densities are per square mile of county area. although most pennsylvanians were engaged in agriculture at the time, manufacturing was expanding rapidly in some areas. in philadelphia, for example, 3.5 people were employed in manufacturing in 1820 for every agricultural worker. by 1840, the ratio had risen to nearly eight manufacturing workers for each person employed in agriculture. large numbers of workers were employed in iron forges, bloomeries, and flour and rolling mills; printing and bookbinding; the construction of carriages and wagons; the manufacture of brick, lime, liquor, and machinery; and the creation of leather, cotton, and woolen goods (snyder 1958, 9). the industrial workforce consisted of both skilled artisans and unskilled wage earners of both races and genders (sullivan 1955, 59–83). the jobs competition hypothesis holds that the competition between blacks and whites for scarce jobs during the panic of 1837 exacerbated racial tensions. the panic of 1837 hit the state’s manufacturing sector much harder than it hit its farm sector. the competition for jobs would thus be strongest where manufacturing was important and weakest where agriculture dominated. blacks and whites competed for jobs primarily in manufacturing, for “in 1840 most of the work on the farm, except at hay and small grain harvest, was done by the farmer and his family” (fletcher 1955, 76). manufacturing employment severely contracted during 1837 and 1838. also, population density ought to be positively associated with the size of the potential labor force and so with competition for jobs and, therefore, with a vote to deny blacks the franchise. the fourth variable is the county’s population growth rate between 1830 and 1840. i expect that delegates from fast-growing counties were more likely than other delegates to support black disenfranchisement, as migration into the county increases competition for jobs. the fifth variable, the ratio of manufacturing employment to agricultural employment, ought to be positively related to a vote to limit suffrage to whites. the greater this ratio, the greater the relative importance of manufacturing to the county economy and the greater the competition for jobs. if the jobs competition hypothesis has any merit, it would be for those delegates representing counties with relatively large black populations. accordingly, i also test a variable measuring the interaction between the free black population percentage and the ratio of manufacturing workers to agricultural workers. the number of newspapers can be taken as an indicator of the level of economic development in the county. economic development at the time related primarily to manufacturing, so delegates from counties with many newspapers are expected to have been more likely than other delegates to vote to disenfranchise blacks. these economic and population variables are taken from the 1830 and 1840 u.s. censuses. 12 disenfranchisement of black pennsylvanians i test 19 variables. the dichotomous nature of the dependent variable and the small number of observations create obvious testing problems. standard statistical methodology, which requires a single simultaneous test of all variables, is inapplicable. the power of the test is simply too weak. consequently, i adopt a second-best approach that involves testing the variables in a variety of ways and forming conclusions using an accumulation of results. these conclusions must be viewed with caution, for the omittedvariable problem may be a significant yet inescapable source of error. the choice is either to test, and acknowledge the existence of possible errors, or not to test at all. testing the variables i begin by testing the racial, political, and economic variables one at a time without taking into account inter–relationships among independent variables. table 1 below lists the simple correlations (phi for the binary variables and point biserial for the continuous variables) between a delegate’s vote on black disenfranchisement and the independent variables. the results produced some surprising correlations. delegates from counties with a relatively large black population and delegates from counties along the state’s southern border were less likely to have voted to strip blacks of the suffrage. of the 47 delegates from counties in which blacks accounted for at least 3% of the population, only 23 voted in favor of disenfranchisement; 36 of the 48 delegates from counties whose population was less than 1% black voted to deny blacks the right to vote. also, supporters of lifting the tax qualification for voting tended to support black disenfranchisement. otherwise, the signs of the coefficients are mostly as expected. economic variables perform least well. the political variables measuring political affiliation have the largest correlation coefficients. of all the convention delegates, democrats and delegates from heavily democratic counties were the most likely to vote to restrict the suffrage to white freemen. 13 david a. latzko table 1 individual tests of the relationships between the independent variable and a delegate’s vote on black disenfranchisement. variables used correlation coefficient with a delegate’s vote on black disenfranchisement racial variables free black persons as percent of county population –.205** county politically competitive –.133 southern border county –.124 black population growth –.104 distance from philadelphia –.092 blacks customarily vote in county .048 political variables democrat .663*** democrat * county politically competitive .662*** percentage of county vote for democratic gubernatorial candidate .414*** opposed tax qualification for voting .400*** percentage of adults voting in 1838 gubernatorial election .032 black population density –.026 economic variables agricultural density –.151* number of daily, semi–weekly, and weekly newspapers –.082 population growth .064 population density –.025 percent black population * manufacturing/ agriculture employment ratio –.025 manufacturing density –.021 ratio of manufacturing to agricultural employment –.011 note: ***, **, * indicate significance at the 99%, 95%, and 90% levels, respectively. i next allow the variables to compete against one another in explaining black disenfranchisement. because the dependent variable in my analysis is dichotomous, i use logistic analysis to estimate voting patterns. having already ruled out the inclusion of all variables as a useful statistical tool, i use stepwise logistic regression. given the number and nature of the variables being tested, a choice has to be made between an arbitrary variable selection 14 disenfranchisement of black pennsylvanians procedure and some formal procedure. formal procedures like stepwise regression have the advantage of making clear the way in which the variables are selected. the main disadvantage is that repeated application of tests invalidates the probability statements resulting from the tests. i nevertheless present these test statistics to illuminate the relative explanatory power of the variables, even though the absolute level of significance is meaningless when using stepwise regression. table 2 below shows the results of a binary logistic regression. i use a stepwise backward likelihood ratio procedure to give all the variables an opportunity to demonstrate some explanatory power. variables were included in the equation only if they passed a 5% significance test. the results confirm that democrats were more likely than other delegates to support black disenfranchisement, with other factors remaining the same. three racial variables have some explanatory power in the joint test. delegates from politically competitive counties were more likely than other delegates to support disenfranchisement, which is consistent with a racially ascriptivist motive. the other two racial variables with sufficient explanatory power are the percentage of free blacks in the county population and the county’s distance from philadelphia. but the hypothesis that a concentration of black residents in a county would cause its delegates to vote to restrict suffrage to whites is not supported by the findings. in fact, the greater the percentages of blacks, the less likely county delegates were to vote to disenfranchise them. on the other hand, delegates from counties far from philadelphia were less likely to support disenfranchisement than were those from counties close to the state’s largest concentration of black citizens. the jobs competition hypothesis is supported by the finding that the greater a county’s ratio of manufacturing employment to agricultural employment multiplied by its free black population percentage, the more likely were its delegates to vote to deny blacks the vote. 15 david a. latzko table 2 summary of stepwise regression results. variables selected coefficient and standard error intercept –11.585 (6.499) democrat 4.554 (0.859) free black persons as percent of county population –1.503 (0.380) manufacturing density –0.001 (0.000) percent black population * manufacturing/agriculture employment ratio 2.091 (0.673) distance from philadelphia –0.007 (0.003) county politically competitive 0.152 (0.071) notes: variables were included in the equation if they passed a 5% significance test and excluded if they failed the test. the homer and lemeshow statistic has a significance level of 0.461. the nagekerte r–squared for the equation is 0.696. the variables were removed in this order: ratio of manufacturing to agricultural employment, democrat * county politically competitive, blacks customarily vote in county, population density, percentage of adults voting in 1838 gubernatorial election, population growth rate, tax qualification vote, number of newspapers, percentage of county vote for democratic gubernatorial candidate, agricultural density, black population density, black population growth rate, and southern border county. knowing the most important variables affecting convention delegates’ votes on black disenfranchisement, the worst effects of the omitted variable problem can be counteracted by controlling for these variables when testing hypotheses. each of the remaining variables is added separately to the equation shown in table 2, and the resulting coefficient estimates are presented in table 3 below. 16 disenfranchisement of black pennsylvanians table 3 estimated coefficients and standard errors when each variable is added separately to the regression equation in which democrat, free black persons as percent of county population, manufacturing density, percent black population * manufacturing/agriculture employment ratio, distance from philadelphia, and county politically competitive are already included. variables coefficient and standard error racial variables southern border county 1.571 (0.994) black population growth –0.009* (0.005) blacks customarily vote in county –0.096 (0.819) political variables democrat * county politically competitive 0.086 (0.156) percentage of county vote for democratic gubernatorial candidate –0.010 (0.044) opposed tax qualification for voting –0.086 (1.054) percentage of adults voting in 1838 gubernatorial election 0.039 (0.101) black population density –0.322 (0.335) economic variables agricultural density –0.063 (0.131) population growth –0.004 (0.012) population density –0.019 (0.025) ratio of manufacturing to agricultural employment 1.319 (2.389) note: ***, **, * indicate significance at the 99%, 95%, and 90% levels, respectively. the standard errors are provided solely for judging the explanatory power of the variables. the most significant aspect of the results in table 3 is the number of times the signs of the coefficients fail to support the relevant hypothesis. for the racial variables, one sign in three is incorrect; for the political variables, two in five are incorrect; and for the variables measuring a county’s economic development, three in five are incorrect. the only variable with remotely any explanatory power is the growth rate 17 david a. latzko of the county’s free black population, which (inconsistent with the racial motivation thesis) is negatively related to a vote on disenfranchisement. conclusions the best way to summarize the findings is to classify the variables into three groups: (1) those that can be accepted because they are supported in both tests, (2) those that can be rejected because no test results support them, and (3) those whose significance remains unclear because they are not consistent with the test results. the first group includes the delegate’s political party affiliation and the percentage of free black persons in the county population. these two variables undoubtedly are determinants of how convention delegates voted on the issue of black suffrage. democrats were more likely than other delegates to support disenfranchising blacks. as table 2 shows, being a democrat increases the predicted probability of a yes vote from 0.56 to 0.68 for a hypothetical delegate, with average values on all other independent variables. whether this outcome is due to partisan electoral concerns or to political philosophy is unclear. the only racial variable robustly related to black suffrage rights is the relative size of the county’s black population. unexpectedly, delegates from counties with a proportionally large black population were less likely to support the effort to disenfranchise black voters. a black population percentage one standard deviation above the state average decreases from 0.67 to 0.61 the probability that a delegate from that county would vote for black disenfranchisement, assuming mean values for other variables. this finding is not consistent with a racial motive for denying blacks the right to vote. perhaps whigs and anti-masons from counties with large black populations had developed political ties with blacks and were therefore reluctant to deny them the right to vote. of the 30 whigs and anti-masons representing counties in which blacks accounted for more than 3% of the population, 23 voted against the motion to disenfranchise free black males. twenty whigs and anti-masons came from counties where blacks were less than 1% of the population. only 12 of those delegates voted against the race-based voting restriction. the remaining racial variable and most of the economic variables fall into the second group. their relevance is easily rejected. the political variables also tend to fall into the “rejected” group. the tax qualification vote changes signs when tested with other variables, and the relevance of the interaction between the democrat dummy variable and the political competition variable disappears when the two variables are tested jointly. the strong correlations of the political variables in table 1 likely result from their collinearity with party affiliation. controlling for political party in the joint tests eliminates the explanatory power of the other political variables. 18 disenfranchisement of black pennsylvanians a stepwise discriminant analysis confirms the primacy of a delegate’s political affiliation. even with a generous inclusion-significance criterion of 5% and an exclusion criterion of 20%, only the democrat variable enters into the discriminant function. this finding makes it at least plausible that democrats voted to disenfranchise blacks for reasons of political or racial philosophy rather than for purely electoral concerns, for even democrats representing overwhelmingly democratic counties voted to deny blacks the right to vote. as for the third group of variables, two economic variables have some explanatory power in the joint tests. tested individually, though, these variables have no correlation with black suffrage votes. consistent with the hypothesis that economic competition between blacks and low status whites for jobs contributed to antiblack sentiment, the ratio of manufacturing employment to agricultural employment is positively related to black disenfranchisement in the joint tests when corrected for the size of the black population. representing a county for which the product of the black population percentage and the manufacturing to agricultural employment ratio is two standard deviations above the mean increases from 0.64 to 0.82 the probability that a delegate voted for black disenfranchisement, assuming mean values of the other independent variables. manufacturing density has a negative sign in the logistic regression. if this variable is taken as a proxy for the level of socioeconomic development, then delegates from the more economically advanced counties would have been less likely to vote to disenfranchise black pennsylvanians, everything else being the same. two racial variables also have some explanatory power in the joint test and both are consistent with a racial motive for denying blacks the right to vote. delegates from areas far from philadelphia were less likely to support disenfranchisement than were delegates representing areas close to philadelphia. a delegate living in a county 200 miles from philadelphia was nearly 2% less likely to support disenfranchisement than was a delegate from a county 100 miles from philadelphia, all things being equal. also, as political competition in a county increased, so too did the probability that its delegates, democrat or whig or anti-mason, voted in favor of disenfranchisement. taken together, these results fit the broad pattern identified by christopher malone (2008) that led to the disenfranchisement of blacks in pennsylvania and other northern states before the civil war. the competition between blacks and whites for suddenly scarce jobs inflamed racial prejudice, especially in areas around philadelphia. opponents of black suffrage found overwhelming support in the democratic party and enough allies among the whigs and anti-masons representing counties with relatively small black populations. at the convention, almost all the democrats and nearly half of the whigs and anti-masons voted to deny blacks the suffrage. blacks in 19 david a. latzko pennsylvania would not regain the right to vote until the ratification of the fifteenth amendment to the u.s. constitution in 1870. notes 1 malone (2008, 91–97), mittrick (1985, 22–33), and price (1973, 100–116) each provide a summary of the debate at the 1837–38 constitutional convention over the racial qualification for voting. 2 in october 1835 william fogg, a black property owner and taxpayer in luzerne county, was prevented from voting by hiram hobbs, the county elections inspector. fogg appealed to the county court of appeals, where judge david scott ruled that neither the federal nor the state constitution prohibited blacks from voting. hobbs appealed to the state supreme court. the case was argued in july 1837 but the court withheld its decision until 1838, after the constitutional convention amended the suffrage article to prohibit blacks from voting. judge john gibson ruled that because blacks were not freemen under the state’s 1790 constitution, they were not entitled to vote. see smith (1998, 294–95). 3 eighteen delegates changed their positions on the issue in the time since it had been voted on the previous summer. sixteen delegates, six of whom were democrats, now voted to disenfranchise blacks, and two delegates, one a democrat, switched from yes to no. of the 23 delegates who did not vote on the amendment the first time, 18 voted in favor of disenfranchisement. references akagi, roy h. 1924. “the pennsylvania constitution of 1838.” pennsylvania magazine of history and biography 48 (4): 301–3. blalock, hubert m. 1967. toward a theory of minority-group relations. new york, ny: wiley. brown, ira v. 1970. the negro in pennsylvania history. university park, pa: pennsylvania historical association. clark, malcolm c. 1966. “the birth of an enterprise: baldwin locomotive, 1831–1842.” pennsylvania magazine of history and biography 90 (4): 423–44. commonwealth of pennsylvania. 1790. constitution of the commonwealth of pennsylvania, 1790. harrisburg, pa: commonwealth of pennsylvania. commonwealth of pennsylvania. 1837–38. proceedings and debates of the convention of the commonwealth of pennsylvania, to propose amendments to the constitution, commenced and held at harrisburg, on the second day of may, 1837. reported by john agg. 14 vols. harrisburg, pa: packer, barrett, and parke. cyril, james f. 1940. “the bank of north america and the financial history of philadelphia.” pennsylvania magazine of history and biography 64 (1): 56–83. du bois, w. e. b. [1899] 2007. the philadelphia negro: a social study. new york, ny: oxford university press. fletcher, stevenson whitcomb. 1955. pennsylvania agriculture and country life 1840–1940. harrisburg, pa: pennsylvania historical and museum commission. keister, rebecca m. 2005. “the limits of liberty in the pennsylvania constitutional convention, 1837–1838.” honors thesis. pennsylvania state university. key, v. o., jr. 1949. southern politics in state and nation. new york, ny: a. a. knopf. klein, philip s., and ari hoogenboom. 1980. a history of pennsylvania. university park, pa: pennsylvania state university press. 20 disenfranchisement of black pennsylvanians malone, christopher. 2008. between freedom and bondage: race, party, and voting rights in the antebellum north. new york, ny: routledge. mittrick, robert. 1985. “a history of negro voting in pennsylvania during the nineteenth century.” ph.d. diss. rutgers university. mueller, henry r. 1969. the whig party in pennsylvania. new york, ny: ams press. nash, gary b. 1988. forging freedom: the formation of philadelphia’s black community, 1720–1840. cambridge, ma: harvard university press. olson, mancur. 1965. the logic of collective action: public goods and the theory of groups. cambridge, ma: harvard university press. price, edward j. 1973. “let the law be just: the quest for racial equality in pennsylvania, 1780–1915.” ph.d. diss. pennsylvania state university. price, edward j. 1976. “the black voting rights issue in pennsylvania, 1780–1900.” pennsylvania magazine of history and biography 100 (3): 356–73. rezneck, samuel. 1935. “the social history of an american depression, 1837–1843.” american historical review 40 (4): 662–87. rosenberger, lyle l. 1974. “black suffrage in bucks county: the election of 1837.” bucks county historical society journal spring: 28–36. smith, eric ledell. 1998. “the end of black voting rights in pennsylvania: african americans and the pennsylvania constitutional convention of 1837–1838.” pennsylvania history 65 (3): 279–99. snyder, charles mccool. 1958. the jacksonian heritage: pennsylvania politics 1833–1848. harrisburg, pa: pennsylvania historical and museum commission. sullivan, william a. 1955. the industrial worker in pennsylvania 1800–1840. harrisburg, pa: pennsylvania historical and museum commission. taylor, marylee. 1998. “how white attitudes vary with the racial composition of local populations: numbers count.” american sociological review 63 (4): 512–35. turner, edward raymond. 1912. the negro in pennsylvania: slavery, servitude, freedom, 1639–1861. washington, dc: american historical association. winch, julie. 1988. philadelphia’s black elite: activism, accommodation, and the struggle for autonomy, 1787–1848. philadelphia: temple university press. prevention of opioid addiction commonwealth, volume 20, issue 1 (2018). © 2018 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/com.v20i2-3.187. all rights reserved. prevention of opioid addiction ralph e. tarter university of pittsburgh gerald cochran university of pittsburgh maureen reynolds university of pittsburgh ameliorating the factors that cause and sustain opioid addiction is essential for effective prevention. accordingly, this discussion begins with a brief review of the etiological components, developmental pathways, and phases of addiction across the lifespan. next, assessment of risk for addiction is discussed as to the basis of objective determination of prevention tactics. the main prevention tactics are succinctly noted. lastly, the challenges that need to be surmounted to increase access to and success of prevention interventions are considered. recommendations that may improve effectiveness of prevention of opioid addiction conclude this article. in particular, it is argued that successful prevention is contingent on shifting resources from the criminal justice system to the health care system. the modern practice of medicine is anchored to the principle that intervention effectiveness, whether prevention or treatment, is contingent on ameliorating the factors that cause and sustain the particular disease. prevention of diseases that have one causal factor is straightforward, involving either strengthening the person’s resistance (e.g., inoculation) or eliminating the etiological agent from the environment (e.g., water and air purification). multifactorial diseases, on the other hand, technically termed complex, do not have a single causal determinant. rather, these diseases, prevention of opioid addiction 39 including opioid addiction, ensue over a period of time from the continuous interplay of three etiologic components: (1) genetic and biobehavioral vulnerability of the individual; (2) quality of the physical and social environments; and (3) pharmacological properties of the specific substance. a threepronged strategy is therefore required to prevent opioid addiction, defined herein as consumption behavior that is beyond voluntary control (dirckx 2001). compulsive drug seeking, usually embedded in physical dependence, captures the original latin meaning of the term addiction, namely, the once master becoming the slave, in this case to the drug. etiology of addiction opioid addiction, as shown in figure 1, has manifold etiological influences spanning characteristics of the individual, environmental circumstances, and particular type of opioid. accordingly, the population of opioid addicts is very heterogeneous. diverse etiological pathways leading to clinical disorder (opioid addiction), termed equifinality, illustrates the importance of deploying individualized intervention. a personcentered approach to prevention (informed by etiology) requires capitalizing on riskattenuating (i.e., resilience) characteristics while ameliorating risk-e nhancing characteristics. all factors pertinent to the three etiological domains, depicted in figure 2, determine the person’s overall risk (r), ranging from 0–1, of developing opioid addiction. because the repertoire of riskenhancing and risk-a ttenuating characteristics is uniquely configured in each individual, the prevention framework must be adaptive; that is, it must selectively use methods tailored to the particular needs of the individual. adaptive prevention thus corresponds conceptually with person-c entered medicine. etiology of opioid addiction is discussed briefly below, followed in the next section with a description of assessment methods and prevention tactics. individual vulnerability the psychological characteristics of the individual that predispose him or her to addiction aggregate into two main clusters: (1) suboptimal psychological selfregulation, and (2) deficient reward processing. psychological self-regulation the capacity to exercise cognitive control over behavior and emotions is essential for social adaptation. constituting the executive cognitive functions, ) s.roh ut ay bdetaer c . (noit enver y p raitre d t n , ayradnoce , syra mir m p r fon n to i oitci dd d a ioip s to o ya whta l pacigoloit e. 1e gu r if prevention of opioid addiction 41 figure 2. opioid addiction risk (r) results from the interplay of individual, environmental, and drug characteristics. (created by authors.) this capacity is integral to planning distant goals (telescopic thinking), self monitoring ongoing behavior, and changing motivational course in response to shifting circumstances. internal language (thought) mediates these processes. for example, impulsivity, one of the cardinal features of addiction risk, is essentially acting without thinking. preventing addiction should begin, therefore, with techniques that consolidate language competencies (reading, oral communication, problem solving, contingent “ifthen” thinking, etc.) in early childhood. neuromaturation, beginning during fetal development and extending to 27–28 years of age, underlies the acquisition of psychological self-r egulation. approximately 1% of babies in the united states are born in opioid withdrawal. this disturbance, termed neonatal abstinence syndrome (nas), is the result of exposure during gestation to medicinal and/or illegal (schedule i) opioids. the main feature of nas is severe physiological dysregulation, which, although usually subsiding within a month, challenges caregiver investment in the baby and parenting competencies. moreover, frequently present characteristics of addicted women (psychiatric disturbance, medical disability, lack of social support, chronic stress) impede emotional bonding and parenting. one outcome of dysfunctional babycaregiver bonding is development of behavioral disturbances in the young child, thereby biasing ontogeny toward nonnormative socialization, which almost invariably manifests as early age– onset substance use and other risky behaviors. in 2016, over 300 babies were born with nas at the magee women’s hospital in pittsburgh. 42 ralph e. tarter, gerald cochran, and maureen reynolds transient disturbances during infancy, often mundane and considered innocuous, may also hamper development of psychological selfregulation and subsequent normative socialization. colic, for example, is evinced as fussiness, intense crying, flushed face, clenched hands, and physical discomfort indicated by knees pulled up to the chest. without reliable comforting from the caregiver (soothing, holding, stroking, mild exercise, etc.), emotional development of the baby may be jeopardized. distress in the infant that is not alleviated by a caregiver hinders affectional bonding, which commonly manifests in later childhood and adolescence as a strong propensity for disruptive and antisocial behavior, including substance use. during toddlerhood, suboptimal selfregulation, usually referred to as difficult temperament, consists of high emotionality, behavioral overactivity, low sociability, low persistence to goals, and distractibility. these emotion and behavior deviations in twoyearold children increase the risk for addiction two decades later (horner et al. 2015). low selfregulation in middle childhood is evinced as symptoms of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (adhd), often in conjunction with conduct disorder (cd). both disorders amplify conflict with peers and adults, resulting in marginalization that is often accompanied by internalization of resentment, aggressivity, alienation, and affiliation with peers who are similarly undercontrolled and prone to deviant behavior. in effect, a friendship cluster forms consisting of youths who mutually encourage norm-v iolating behavior, including substance use. notably, severely deficient psychological selfregulation in late childhood segues to addiction, consequent to the most negatively sanctioned drugs, such as cocaine and opioids (krueger et al. 2002). by midadolescence, low psychological selfregulation often manifests as antisocial personality disorder (more often in males) and borderline personality disorder (more often in females), which are the most frequent presaging and cooccurring personality disturbances associated with hazardous substance use and addiction. hence, the core individual characteristic comprising the liability to addiction is suboptimal psychological self-r egulation, predisposing to nonnormative socialization and associated nonadherence with mores and laws. internal and external stressors may diminish previously acquired psychological selfregulation. examples of internal stressors include psychiatric illness, sleep disorder, and pain. examples of stressors having an external source include divorce, maltreatment, and unsafe neighborhood. alcohol and other addictive drugs alleviate stress in the short term; however, habitual consumption results in neuroadaptation (chronic tolerance) and other symptoms of addiction. stress associated with (1) preoccupation of ensuring a reliable opioid supply, (2) craving, and (3) staving off withdrawal symptoms catalyzes prevention of opioid addiction 43 strongly motivated drug seeking, which in severe cases manifests as compulsivity that may lower inhibition for criminal behavior. deficient reward processing a body of empirical evidence, albeit not pertaining to opioids, documents deficient reward processing in individuals who subsequently develop addiction. quality of reward experience, however, most likely predisposes to opioid addiction, considering that all addictive drugs impact the same dopaminergic mesolimbic circuitry comprising the reward system in the brain (vanyukov et al. 2009). the pharmacological actions of addictive drugs produce three types of subjective effects: (1) positive reinforcement (euphoria, pleasure), (2) negative reinforcement (relief from emotional and/or physical discomfort), and (3) punishment (e.g., panic, nausea). experiencing punishment lowers the probability of repeated use, whereas positive and negative reinforcement increase the probability of repeated use, although not inevitably leading to addiction. however, because the potency of some opioids is very strong, risk for addiction is augmented in individuals who have low vulnerability to addiction. for example, fentanyl, a synthetic opioid, is several thousand times more potent than heroin. notably, regular vigorous physical activity (i.e., exercise and recreation) is rewarding via enhancement of feelings of wellbeing and diminution of negative feelings (anxiety, depression, etc.). hence, mediated by activation of the endogenous opioid system, physical activity may lower the desire to consume opioids (and other drugs). environment multiple environments (family, school, military, moose lodge, church, etc.) regulate individual behavior via (1) informal folkways (e.g., shaking hands in a greeting), (2) formal secular and cultural rules (e.g., not jumping position in a checkout line, desisting alcohol intoxication), and (3) laws (e.g., smoking in restaurants, giving alcohol to a minor). social adjustment thus requires conformity with many expectations, spanning a large variety of different contexts. where there is a mismatch, the person must accommodate or adapt to the discrepancy and associated stress. for example, gay marriage is proscribed by almost all religions, yet accepted in secular western societies. a person with strong religious convictions must, therefore, reconcile discordant cultural and secular values. in the absence of resolution, alcohol or drug use may be adopted as a stresscoping tactic, which, over time and facilitating circumstances, segues to addiction. the point is that alcohol or drug use may ensue 44 ralph e. tarter, gerald cochran, and maureen reynolds from stress caused by adapting to multiple environments that place variable and often conflictual demands on the person. family the family is a system of genetic and social relationships. it is the first and most important environment interacting with the fetus and the child. parents, siblings, and extended family members inculcate in children the values, habits, and attitudes that guide behavior throughout life. the importance of the family in addiction etiology cannot be overstated. addiction in a parent increases addiction risk in the child up to sevenfold, consequent to conjoint influences of genetic liability and family environment. for example, adults with addiction not infrequently spiral into socioeconomic decline, thus forcing the family to relocate to a disadvantaged neighborhood in which illegal drugs are more readily available and their consumption is tolerated. hence, the child is at heightened risk for addiction, concomitant to genetic predisposition along with adverse family and neighborhood environments. to cite another important example, it is well known that genetic risk for addiction is shared in large part with several psychiatric disorders and criminal behavior. these disorders in parents, especially when severe, may lower the threshold for maltreatment of their child. in effect, the child’s risk for addiction and frequently cooccurring outcomes (e.g., crime) is determined conjointly by genotype and adverse home environment. maximizing a positive environment by investing in addiction recovery and mental health services for parents is, therefore, integral to deterring addiction in children. many family characteristics bias the child toward addiction. salient features during early childhood include weak affectional bonding with the primary caregiver, due either to disinterest or child-r earing incompetence. additional riskpromoting factors include low family cohesion, poor communication among family members, insufficient supervision of the child, mutual dissatisfaction between parent and child, family disengagement from cultural/religious identity, and economic disadvantage. single parenting, especially in the absence of extended family or other social support, is also potentially problematic. in summary, internalized societal norms and prosocial values are ordinarily transmitted from family members to children. failure to inculcate traditional values and prosocial behavior portends deviant socialization and substance use onset at a young age. peers play during toddlerhood is essential for acquiring social competence. cooperation inculcates trust, empathy, and skills required for optimal social prevention of opioid addiction 45 interactions. where play is marked by aggression or dominance asserting behavior, risk for early age-onset substance use is heightened. bullying behavior, for example, consolidates a spectrum of problematic behaviors that predispose to substance use. victimization from a bully, on the other hand, may cause long-te rm emotional disturbance, including low selfesteem, leading to substance use as a stresscoping response. two aspects of the peer environment during adolescence exert a particularly strong influence on risk for addiction. the first factor, parental supervision, usually declines during adolescence in tandem with increasing opportunities for the youngster to affiliate with socially deviant peers, and thus initiate alcohol and drug consumption. in the absence of parental oversight, desisting a drug or alcohol offer is less likely among youth with suboptimal selfregulation. the second factor is timing and rate of physical growth and sexual maturation. precocious onset of puberty manifests overtly as appearing older (e.g., facial hair in boys, breast development in girls) relative to actual chronological age. consequently, the earlymaturing youngster is at heightened risk for being drawn into a friendship cluster consisting of older peers who introduce them to risky behaviors, including substance use. school the school is a socially and cognitively demanding environment. beginning with prek education, youths are prepared for citizenship by acquiring cognitive and behavioral competencies required for gainful employment and adult roles. maladjustment in school and/or underachievement increase likelihood of truancy and dropout, which heightens risk for affiliation with socially nonnormative peers and substance use. the school building, vacant about half the year, is a potentially valuable resource to provide health and social services, which, among other benefits, could lower risk for opioid addiction. drug abuse education, family counseling, routine health services (e.g., vaccinations, orodental hygiene services), outofschool physical recreation, and adultsupervised social recreation are examples of activities that lower risk for addiction, which can be easily implemented in the school building serving as a neighborhood hub. community economically disadvantaged communities have a higher density of retail outlets displaying and selling alcohol and tobacco products. this visibility normalizes consumption of addictive substances. hence, drug peddling and consumption are more prevalent and tolerated in disadvantaged communities, especially when there is lax law enforcement and weak social cohesion. 46 ralph e. tarter, gerald cochran, and maureen reynolds opportunity for seclusion in vacant buildings also facilitates illegal drug use. in sum, a socioeconomically disadvantaged neighborhood is more likely to tolerate, and in varying degrees acquiesce to, drug use. reducing opioid peddling and consumption (as well as other illegal behaviors) would, at first glance, appear to simply require rehabilitating the community. often the cornerstone of urban renewal policy, this strategy is not likely to have a robust effect because it merely shifts illegal activity to another proximal disadvantaged neighborhood. disadvantaged neighborhoods are, however, not inevitably locked into a high rate of illegal behaviors, including drug distribution and consumption. many neighborhoods inhabited by the lowincome segment of the population do not have elevated rates of nonadherence to mores and laws. accordingly, they provide good models for drug prevention programming. an important mitigating factor is the neighborhood’s social capital; namely, leadership having expertise in and commitment to promoting the welfare of the residents in conjunction with preservation of the physical and social infrastructure of the neighborhood. enforcing social norms, supporting legitimate economic activity, protecting societal institutions (health, social welfare, education, religious, legal), sustaining partnerships with philanthropic and business entities, and ensuring access to safe social and physical recreational activities (e.g., sports league, scouts, etc.) are also essential for protecting the community from decline, thereby preventing an opening wedge for drug peddling and the opportunity for initiating drug use. drug properties repetitive consumption of a drug that has reinforcement properties is the third etiological determinant of addiction. importantly, opioid addiction risk is potentiated by consumption of other addictive substances. this is not surprising, however, considered in light of the fact that almost 100% of genetic risk is common to all addictions (tsuang et al. 1998; kendler et al. 2003). hence, effective primary prevention of opioid addiction is contingent on averting the onset of consumption of other addictive substances. consumption usually advances from easily obtainable, inexpensive, and legal substances (e.g., alcohol, nicotine) to illegal or negatively sanctioned substances. this pattern has been widely thought to reflect a developmental progression in which cannabis is the pivotal (gateway) drug promoting transition from legal substances to “hard” drugs, including opioids. usually referred to as the gateway hypothesis (kandel and yamaguchi 1999), this notion has been discredited on both logical and empirical grounds (tarter et prevention of opioid addiction 47 al. 2006). it has long been known that (1) opioid use does not invariably ensue after cannabis use, and (2) most cannabis users do not transition to opioid use. nevertheless, the gateway hypothesis has been the rationale underpinning the punishment of individuals caught smoking marijuana, even though there is no empirical evidence that consumption is the stepping stone to opioid use. the rise in opioid use during the past two decades cannot be attributed to marijuana use. other factors appear to have a more prominent influence. opioids in contemporary society have, however, several special features. whereas opium was once the only opioid product, there are currently dozens of formulations consisting of fdaapproved “medicines” and schedule i (illegal) drugs. consumption of medicines with physician prescription is socially responsible, indeed expected, in conformance with aesculapian authority of the doctor for treatment of ailments; however, consumption without physician prescription is not severely negatively sanctioned, if at all. moreover, there are currently readily available, albeit illicitly, potent medicinal opioids (e.g., fentanyl, carfentanyl) that accelerate progression to addiction and confer great fatality risk from overdose. strong potency, low cost, and easy availability, in conjunction with quick sharp euphoria obtained via opioid administration using disposable syringes, converge to heighten the risk for consumption, and subsequently addiction. because many individuals are not capable or motivated to initiate recovery from addiction, harmreduction techniques (secondary prevention), such as providing clean needles and providing heroin legally in a controlled setting, lower the risk for disease and injury. opioid use, as can be seen in figure 3, does not inevitably advance to hazardous use and addiction. comprehensive reviews of the literature suggest that addiction ensues in only a subset of the population of patients using figure 3. phases of addiction development synchronized with prevention type. (created by authors.) 48 ralph e. tarter, gerald cochran, and maureen reynolds opioids for analgesia under physician oversight (fields 2011). determining whether the individual using an opioid is at high risk for transitioning to addiction is therefore a high priority for costefficient secondary prevention. a change in the magnitude of risk for addiction can occur very quickly. drug peddling entering the community, a parent receiving physician prescribed opioid medication who unintentionally lets his children access the supply, and opioid consumption after surgery in vulnerable individuals can, for example, rapidly accelerate use culminating in addiction. establishing an intimate relationship with a drugabstinent partner or joining an organization that enforces mores prohibiting consumption lowers the risk for addiction. temporally monitoring individuals who may be prone to addiction is, therefore, the key to timely intervention. one location in which to conduct longterm monitoring is the community pharmacy. the pharmacist has specialized expertise in medication management, including promoting safe drug use and adherence with the prescribed regimen. pharmacists are among the most accessible health care professionals. indeed, 93% of the population resides within five miles of a retail pharmacy. furthermore, the expansion of pharmacistdelivered services (e.g., influenza immunization clinics, blood pressure monitoring) requires allocating space in the pharmacy for private interactions with patients. currently, 40% of pharmacies in the united states have a consulting room. in sum, the community pharmacy is an ideal setting in which patients receiving physicianprescribed opioids can be monitored for addiction risk, thereby enabling timely onsite prevention intervention. notably, a recent study has found that approximately 15% of patients screened in four community pharmacies located in western pennsylvania misuse their opioid medication (cochran et al. 2015). lifespan perspective of opioid addiction etiology the three phases of addiction etiology and development shown in figure 3 correspond to primary, secondary, and tertiary prevention. because individuals vary with respect to their duration in each phase, it is difficult, if even possible, to conduct effective prevention intervention in a fixed “one size fits all” program. for example, one person may consume a substance for many years before risk ramps up, leading to addiction, whereas another person may rapidly progress to addiction soon after initiating consumption. a schema of addiction etiology accounting for both chronological age and variability of duration in each addiction phase is depicted in figure 4. initial magnitude of risk is established at the moment of conception. thereafter, riskenhancing and riskattenuating factors constitute vectors (v1, v2, v3, etc.), namely, quantities that have both force and direction (analogous ) s.roh ut ay bdetaer c . (napsefi e l h s t sorc t a en m op elve n d oitci dd d a ioip f o e o sah h p ac f e n o oitaru e d lbaira v. 4e gu r if 50 ralph e. tarter, gerald cochran, and maureen reynolds to an airplane in flight). in aggregate, the vectors constitute the overall risk vector (vr) biasing the person toward addiction with a particular momentum. figure 4 illustrates also that the etiological trajectory is nonlinear. this is due to the fact that the person’s biological and psychological risk characteristics change throughout life, concurrent with changing environmental contexts and exposure to an ever-e xpanding panoply of addictive substances. risk magnitude, therefore, is not constant but variable. this important point has two noteworthy ramifications: (1) because magnitude of addiction risk is changeable, it can be reduced, thereby providing the rationale for prevention; and (2) it is not practical or even possible to conduct longterm forecasting. hence, once the need for prevention is determined, intervention needs to focus on lowering the risk of near future outcomes, so as to bias the trajectory away from addiction. this task requires comprehensive quantitative assessment. assessment of addiction risk employing the data obtained in a 25year longitudinal study conducted by the center for education and drug abuse research (cedar) at the university of pittsburgh, assessment tools have been developed corresponding to the three components of addiction etiology (see figure 2): namely, individual risk (vanyukov et al. 2009), environmental risk (kirisci et al. 2009), and drug use topology (kirisci and tarter 2001). problems as well as assets that inform prevention targets can be expeditiously delineated (15–20 minutes) using the web based revised drug use screening inventory (dusir) (ecenterresearch.com). as shown in table 1, problem severity (0%–100%) is quantified in multiple domains spanning mental and physical health, behavior, social skills, and key environments (family, peers, school, work). importantly, the person’s responses are immediately and automatically scored so that the results can be shared with the individual at the time of assessment. denial of problems (a frequent defense by addicted individuals) is not possible since problem severity directly mirrors the person’s responses on the inventory. moreover, a lie scale detects intentional deception. lastly, the data from the automated dusir can be easily aggregated to evaluate effectiveness of the prevention program and to quantify magnitude of the benefit obtained from the intervention for each individual. prevention tactics the following discussion describes prevention techniques corresponding to the main addiction pathways (see figure 1). it should be noted that the prevention of opioid addiction 51 table 1. scales of the revised drug use screening inventory (dusi-r) for adolescents and adult versions primary scales frequency of substance use (20+ compounds) substance use problems behavior patterns health status emotional health social competence overall problem family system density score school performance (0%–100%) work adjustment peer relationships leisure and recreation lie scale (validity check) subscales behavior undercontrol deviance proneness feeling safe at home and school attention deficit hyperactivity disorder conduct disorder anxiety depression academic underperformance anger dependence syndrome interpersonal aggression nonviolent legal violation paranoia school disengagement social withdrawal source: compiled by authors. interventions below (primary, secondary, and tertiary prevention) target the three etiological components (figure 2) spanning the three phases of addiction development (figure 3). it is important to emphasize that the tactics deployed during each phase of addiction development must also include tactics that ameliorate the etiology influences that are present in the prior phase. for example, averting the transition to addiction in drug users must include interventions that address the factors that led to prodromal drug use. to reiterate, prevention encompasses three phases: targeting etiology pertaining to vulnerability disposition prior to onset of substance use, pattern of substance use, and addiction manifestations. 52 ralph e. tarter, gerald cochran, and maureen reynolds subpopulation a: selfdirected opioid use this etiological pathway to addiction originates with behaviors that violate social mores and laws. primary prevention (predrug use stage) as appropriate: • ameliorate externalizing behavior (attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, conduct disorder, oppositional defiant disorder). • devise a personalized curriculum to potentiate academic achievement. • inculcate parenting and communication skills in caregivers. • ensure reliable presence of prosocial adult mentors. • prevent friendships with undersocialized peers. • connect the youngster with adultled social, cultural, and recreational organizations. • cultivate the child’s expertise in a skill (music, craft, sport, etc.). • encourage breastfeeding to promote affectional bonding between caregiver and baby. • enhance socialization in toddlerhood through cooperative play. • establish regularity in daily routine (eating, sleeping, homework, bathing, etc.). • monitor and supervise health promotion behaviors (oral hygiene, hand washing, seat belt use, etc.). • provide opportunity for and require regular vigorous exercise and recreation. • expect the child to regularly perform ageappropriate tasks that benefit a social group (e.g., household chores for the family, volunteer activities in a nursing home). • elevate the barriers to drug dealing in the neighborhood (watch committees, police presence, surveillance cameras, etc.). • provide safe adultsupervised outdoor recreational space for unstructured and adultsupervised recreation. • reduce ubiquity of legal retail sale of addictive substances, including tobacco and alcohol advertising. • strengthen cohesion, identity, and pride in the community (fairs, festivals, sports leagues, etc.). • prevent entry into vacant and abandoned buildings. • establish volunteer corps to upgrade attractiveness of the neighborhood. prevention of opioid addiction 53 • incentivize longterm residence in the neighborhood. • repurpose school buildings as a community hub when not occupied for education. • provide neighborhood setting for aa, alanon, and alateen groups. • recruit businesses essential to a selfcontained neighborhood. • provide multiyear drug education in schools. • establish home visitation program for high-r isk children (e.g., parent in prison, singleparent families, parent receiving opioid medication). secondary prevention (after substance use onset) as appropriate: • provide accessible drug/alcohol, mental health, and family/social professional services. • ensure treatment access for drug/alcohol offenders (e.g., dui, drug possession). • create employment and job training opportunities, including apprenticeships. • implement program for school dropout prevention. • implement employment assistance program. • inculcate adaptive coping tactics to replace substance use. • terminate affiliation with normviolating friends. • provide marital and family counseling services in the neighborhood. • conduct contingency management of substance use in conjunction with brief intervention tactics at point of health service (physician, pharmacy, social agencies). + incorporate primary prevention tactics as appropriate. tertiary prevention (health and legal problems subsequent to addiction) as appropriate: • ensure that opioid medication type and dose are therapeutically effective. • introduce longterm recovery resources (e.g., therapeutic community, aa/na). • ensure access to psychiatric treatment. 54 ralph e. tarter, gerald cochran, and maureen reynolds • provide social and legal support services. • implement behavioral interventions to reduce lifestyle risky behaviors. • conduct routine infectionrisk monitoring (hiv, std, etc.). • intervene with an individualized personcentered approach to formulate life goals, ingrain health promotion values, and instill self motivated character development. • guide and oversee participation in prosocial organizations (e.g., church, sport league, social club). + incorporate primary and secondary prevention tactics as appropriate. subpopulation b: physicianprescribed opioid use a subset of patients receiving opioid medication (usually to manage pain) are at heightened risk for addiction. primary prevention n/a secondary prevention as appropriate: • monitor proactively in pharmacy at time of prescription refill. • ensure that medication for pain management is effective. • refrain, if possible, from taking psychotherapeutic medications that have addiction liability. • desist recreational use of addictive substances (alcohol, nicotine, etc.). • reduce environmental and internal stressors. • ensure access to psychiatric disorder treatment. • monitor healthy diet. • teach coping methods to manage pain (and other stressors) to replace alcohol or drugs. • provide education pertaining to addiction risk. • ensure understanding of the risk of adverse outcomes consequent to nonadherence with the physicianprescribed medication regimen. • prevent accumulation of an opioid supply via accessing multiple physicians and pharmacies. prevention of opioid addiction 55 • quantitatively monitor change in magnitude of addiction risk at the point of service while on a medication regimen (e.g., retail pharmacy at each prescription refill). + incorporate primary and secondary tactics as appropriate (re: subpopulation a). tertiary prevention • same as subpopulation a + incorporate primary and secondary tactics as appropriate (re: subpopulations a and b). subpopulation c. physician-p rescribed opioid use transitions to selfdirected use of medicinal and/or schedule i opioids some patients legitimately receiving opioid medicine transition to self directed use. primary prevention n/a secondary prevention as appropriate: • ensure effective analgesia. • ensure that the dose is sufficient to avoid feelings of incipient withdrawal. • ensure that the patient can obtain legitimately prescribed opioid medication. • monitor risk status and intervene at the point of service (retail pharmacy). + same as subpopulations a and b as appropriate. tertiary prevention + incorporate the same interventions as subpopulations a and b as appropriate. 56 ralph e. tarter, gerald cochran, and maureen reynolds subpopulation d: opioid use to manage addiction under medical supervision transitions to selfdirected use of medicinal and/or schedule i products medicinal opioids are a standard treatment of opioid addiction. some patients transition to selfdirected use. primary prevention n/a secondary prevention n/a tertiary prevention as appropriate: • avert craving using behavioral and physiological tactics. • ensure transportation access to methadone clinic or other facility that dispenses opioid medications (e.g., physician’s office). • provide social services support. • facilitate childcare assistance to enable accessing drug and nondrug treatment facilities. • obtain financial resources subsidy for medications and related treatment. • provide a community resident navigator. + incorporate primary, secondary, and tertiary prevention tactics (re: subpopulations a, b, c) as appropriate. prevention in context of politics and policy the discussion up to this point addressed: (1) etiology of opioid addiction, (2) cost-e fficient scalable assessment, and (3) prevention tactics. because the state has multiple interests (tax revenue, health promotion, protecting public safety, etc.), policies to prevent opioid addiction and its aftermath are unavoidably and intricately connected to politics. from the standpoint of health promotion, the current constellation of federal and state laws and regulations lack consistency. in pennsylvania, the state is the monopoly retailer of spirits, yet these beverages can be purchased in sufficient quantity to cause death from intoxication. marijuana, which prevention of opioid addiction 57 pennsylvania currently outlaws for recreational use, does not cause death from intoxication. pennsylvania does not regulate distribution of powder caffeine, even though one tablespoon can be fatal. (this substance is often added to alcohol drinks to offset sedation.) with respect to toxic injury, cigarette smoking, legal at 18 years of age, is responsible for over 400,000 deaths each year in the united states, whereas alcohol, which accounts for about a fifth of this number of deaths, is legal at 21 years of age. hookah, a coarse tobacco, is almost completely unregulated. protection of safety effected through laws and regulations thus has consistency gaps and arguably lacks coherence. the effectiveness of prevention of opioid addiction via laws and regulations is thus doubtful, especially considered in light of u.s. legislative history. the first attempt in the united states to regulate opioid consumption was the 1875 opium den ordinance act in san francisco. this ordinance, like many statutes since, had racist and nativist sentiments insofar as it was aimed at reducing a perceived threat from chinese immigrants. violators were fined and occasionally jailed. opium use was, however, not curbed. a subsequent law passed in california in 1907 ramped up enforcement, including covert police infiltration of distributors. whereas consumption did not noticeably decline, opium distribution and consumption were driven underground, thereby establishing a new criminal population defined by using this drug. once opium use by statute was designated as nonnormative or deviant, individuals with antisocial propensities as well as those with a socially nonconforming lifestyle (hipsters, artists, writers, jazz musicians, etc.) were inclined toward consumption. during the past three decades, the population of opioid users has expanded by drawing in individuals from the normative segment of the general population. this has occurred for two main reasons: (1) normalization of a wide range of traditionally negatively sanctioned behaviors (e.g., gambling, tattoos, homosexual relationships); and (2) easy availability of opioid medicines that do not carry the stigma of heroin. an expanding spectrum of normative behaviors combined with access to medicinal opioids have thus largely catalyzed an upsurge in consumption. (other factors that are beyond the scope of this discussion have also been influential.) medicines do not carry the negativity associated with heroin, hence they most often comprise the first type of opioid consumed by the majority of individuals who subsequently become addicted. among all illegal drugs, opioid use by youths ranks second only to cannabis. the first national legislation aimed at curtailing opioids and cocaine use was the harrison act in 1914. this statute initially mandated obtaining a license to sell these drugs, but subsequently morphed into a prohibition law. 58 ralph e. tarter, gerald cochran, and maureen reynolds the volstead act, which prohibited the manufacture, distribution, and consumption of alcohol, was passed five years later. attempts to deter the consumption of alcohol and other addictive substances for the past century have been primarily effected through laws enforced by specialized departments in the federal government such as the food and drug administration, the bureau of alcohol, tobacco, firearms, and explosives, and the drug enforcement agency. within the guise of protecting public safety, prevention of addiction and prodromal consumption has emphasized control of drug supply. however, because addiction is essentially defined as compulsive drug seeking, it is clear that emphasis must also be given to reducing demand. policies aimed at preventing consumption solely by eliminating or controlling supply will meet certain failure because individuals with intense demand (compulsive urge to consume the drug) constitute a reliable profitable consumer market for nefarious manufacturers and distributors. the american psychiatric association officially designated addiction as a mental disorder upon publication of the second edition of the diagnostic and statistical manual in 1968. the supreme court first ruled in 1963 (robinson v. california) that addiction was a disease, asserting that the eighth amendment of the constitution (“cruel and unusual punishment”) protects narcotic addicts from incarceration. nevertheless, to this day a substantial portion of the u.s. prison population is serving long sentences connected to alcohol and/ or drug addiction. the point to be made is that shifting focus from reducing supply to lowering demand also requires a shift from a legal/regulatory framework of prevention to a health framework. accordingly, reducing demand for drugs can best be costefficiently conducted within a comprehensive health delivery system. the infrastructure and expertise required to provide ageappropriate interventions, spanning gestation to old age, are established. considering that up to 20% of the u.s. population will develop addiction at some time in life, often with severe manifold cooccurring diseases, shifting emphasis to prevention is consistent with the mission of health providers. however, this shift in intervention resources to prevention must accommodate financial concerns, specifically the loss of future revenue accrued from treatment services. a proposed solution is to fund all addiction services from a dedicated fund accrued from a small levy on all substances that have empirically documented addictive properties. in addition to prescription analgesics, stimulants, anxiolytics, and hypnotics, this tax would extend to nonprescription “nutrition” supplements, proprietary medicines, alcohol, and nicotine products. one immediate benefit of a dedicated tax is that it focuses attention on prevention of opioid addiction 59 addiction, which, with respect to opioids, constitutes a recently designated national emergency. from the practical perspective, tax on the addictive agent is insurance for the consumer; namely, it ensures that intervention for addiction and concomitant medical conditions will be available. in 2016, almost 45% of the u.s. population over 12 years of age used a prescribed psychotherapeutic drug having addictive properties. hence, a onepenny tax on each dose, costing up to three dollars/month, would fund most, if not all, addiction prevention and treatment services. lastly, it should be noted that treatment of opioid addiction is largely, and not infrequently entirely, confined to longterm (i.e., lifetime) consumption of an opioid. the benefits of “medication-a ssisted treatment” have been well documented; however, lifetime opioid use for the purpose of forestalling craving and withdrawal is not recovery. because secondary and tertiary prevention may require intensive and potentially longterm intervention, vacated facilities, including former state psychiatric hospitals, can be repurposed. in conclusion, progress in addiction prevention is contingent on: (1) a shift in emphasis away from law enforcement to health promotion; (2) leadership by elected officials to provide stable funding for services throughout life in a health delivery system; and (3) expansion of educational resources, especially advanced degrees and training in prevention science and practice. it is increasingly obvious that it is not possible to incarcerate all offenders or provide treatment at pace with the growing addiction prevalence. shifting resources to prevention is the only policy and practical option. from two centuries of public health experience, there is reason to be optimistic that it is feasible to prevent opioid and other addictions. references cochran, g., j. rubenstein, j. bucci, t. ylioja, and r. tarter. 2015. “screening community pharmacy patients for opioid misuse.” journal of addiction medicine 9 (september/ october): 411–416. dirckx, j. 2001. stedman’s concise medical dictionary for the health professions. 4th ed. baltimore: lippincott, williams and wilkins. fields, h. l. 2011. “the doctor’s dilemma: opiate analgesics and chronic pain.” neuron 69 (february): 591–594. horner, m., b. braxter, l. kirisci, and r. tarter. 2015. “temperament disturbances in infancy progress to substance use disorder 20 years later.” personality and individual differences 82 (august): 96–101. kandel, d., and k. yamaguchi. 1999. “developmental stages of involvement in substance use.” in sourcebook on substance abuse: etiology, epidemiology, assessment, and treatment, eds. p. ott, r. tarter, and r. ammerman. boston: allyn & bacon, 50–74. kendler k. s., k. c. jacobson, c. a. prescott, and m. c. neale. 2003. “specificity of genetic and environmental risk factors for use and abuse/dependence of can60 ralph e. tarter, gerald cochran, and maureen reynolds nabis, cocaine, hallucinogens, sedatives, stimulants, and opiates in male twins.” american journal of psychiatry 160 (april): 687–695. kirisci, l., and r. tarter. 2001. “psychometric validation of a multidimensional schema of substance use topology: discrimination of high and low risk youth and prediction of substance use disorder.” journal of child and adolescent substance abuse 10 (june): 23–33. kirisci l., r. tarter, a. mezzich, t. ridenour, m. reynolds, and m. vanyukov. 2009. “prediction of cannabis use between childhood and young adulthood: clarifying the phenotype and environtype.” american journal on addictions 18 (february): 36–47. krueger, r., b. hicks, c. patrick, s. carlson, w. iancono, and m. mcgue. 2002. “etiological connections among substance dependence, antisocial behavior, and personality: modeling the externalizing spectrum.” journal of abnormal child psychiatry 111 (august): 411–424. tarter, r., m. vanyukov, l. kirisci, m. reynolds, and d. clark. 2006. “predictors of marijuana use in adolescents before and after licit drug use: examination of the gateway hypothesis.” american journal of psychiatry 163 (december): 2134–2140. tsuang, m. t., m. j. lyons, j. m. meyer, t. doyle, s. a. eisen, j. goldberg, w. true, n. lin, r. toomey, and l. eaves. 1998. “cooccurrence of abuse of different drugs in men: the role of drug-s pecific and shared vulnerabilities.” archives of general psychiatry 55 (november): 967–972. vanyukov, m., l. kirisci, h. moss, r. tarter, m. reynolds, b. maher, g. kirillova, t. ridenour, and d. clark. 2009. “measurement of the risk for substance use disorders: phenotypic and genetic analysis of an index of common liability.” behavior genetics 39 (may): 233–244. ralph e. tarter is professor of pharmaceutical sciences at the university of pittsburgh, where he also has secondary appointments in the department of psychology and the clinical translational sciences institute. from 1989–2017, he directed the center for education and drug abuse research (cedar) funded by the national institute on drug abuse. his research has focused on the genetic, biological, and psychological vulnerability to addiction, including development of evaluation tools to detect highrisk children and adolescents. gerald cochran is associate professor and associate dean for research in the school of social work at the university of pittsburgh. he earned his ph.d. from the university of texas at austin school of social work and completed postdoctoral training with the johns hopkins school of medicine, department of psychiatry and behavioral sciences. his area of expertise involves identifying and studying appropriate care for underserved populations in health care settings, with particular emphasis on individuals who misuse drugs and alcohol. current interests and publications pertain to evaluating the utility of the pharmacy setting for detection of hazardous prescription opioid use. maureen reynolds is associate professor of pharmaceutical sciences at the university of pittsburgh. from 2000–2017, she was administrator of the center for education and drug abuse research (cedar). her scholarly publications have focused on diverse topics related to addiction etiology within a developmental perspective. her current work, funded by the substance abuse and mental health services administration (samhsa), is directed at training health professionals to use sbirt (screening, brief intervention and referral to treatment) for evaluating harmful substance use among their patients. structure bookmarks etiology of addiction lifespan perspective of opioid addiction etiology prevention in context of politics and policy references the women of the pennsylvania general assembly commonwealth, volume 18, issue 2 (2016). © 2016 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/cjppp.v18i2.122. all rights reserved. the women of the pennsylvania general assembly explaining women’s representation in pennsylvania state politics kathleen m. rogers rutgers university the pennsylvania general assembly is ranked 40th among the 50 state legislatures for its proportion of female legislators. women constitute 18.6% of the bicameral legislature, including nine of 50 senators and 38 of 203 representatives. various characteristics of the pennsylvania general assembly, including its professionalization, appear to provide numerous challenges to women’s entry. as such, the presence of 47 women in the legislature is noteworthy. this exploratory case study examines the experiences of women in the pennsylvania general assembly, presenting a qualitative analysis of several interviews with female legislators. the findings indicate that these women were encouraged to run for their current seats primarily by having the support of their families and political parties, by the availability of open seats, and by developing confidence in their qualifications through a politicized upbringing. somebody once said that it’s not that women see things differently; they see different things. my life experiences as a mother, a daughter, as a sister are different than most men i know . . . so i’m going to have a different life experience that i bring to the table. —lynn women constitute 51.1% of the population in pennsylvania (u.s. census bureau 2015), but only 18.6% of pennsylvania’s state legislature (cawp 2016a). while the proportion of women in the 104 kathleen m. rogers pennsylvania general assembly has been increasing fairly steadily over time, more—though less steady—progress has been made in the states that border pennsylvania (cawp 2016b). in fact, pennsylvania’s low percentage of female legislators is an anomaly within the northeast region of the united states, which has historically performed quite well, comparatively, in terms of women’s descriptive representation (norrander and wilcox 2005). the only states with lower percentages of women in their legislatures are tennessee, kentucky, utah, west virginia, louisiana, alabama, oklahoma, south carolina, mississippi, and wyoming (cawp 2016b; see appendix b for full state rankings). many scholars have found that certain institutional factors are associated with fewer female state legislators. these include the professionalization of the legislature (norrander and wilcox 2005), the absence of term limits (thompson and moncrief 1993), the recruitment practices of political parties (carroll 1994; crowdermeyer 2013; elder 2012; sanbonmatsu 2002), the cost of running a campaign (norrander and wilcox 2005), and whether officials are elected to single-m ember or multimember districts (hogan 2001; welch, et al. 1985). as a fulltime, highly professionalized legislature that lacks term limits and elects officials to singlemember districts (ncsl 2016; schmedlen 2001), the pennsylvania general assembly possesses a number of elements that are known to disadvantage potential female candidates. the most recent research on women’s representation in legislative politics in the united states has shifted focus to the psychological challenges that potential female candidates face. as early as 1977, darcy and schramm found that “candidate sex has little or no effect on election outcomes” (9), and women perform just as well as men when it comes to campaign fund-r aising (jenkins 2007; schlozman and uhlaner 1986). such results suggest that there is little difference between male and female candidates; instead, the problem is that women are not emerging as candidates to begin with. richard fox and jennifer lawless contend, “the gender gap in political ambition results from longstanding patterns of traditional socialization that persist in u.s. culture” (fox and lawless 2010b, 8). such socialization typically reinforces women’s traditional family roles as wives and mothers, teaching them that they belong in the home, rather than in politics. furthermore, the behavior of political actors and institutions often reflects the circumstances and concerns of men, who are the dominant group in legislative politics. as a result of their internalization of these messages and realities, women’s levels of political ambition are dampened by a “gendered psyche,” characterized by a lack of confidence, aggressiveness, and selfpromotion (fox and lawless 2010b). the women of the pennsylvania general assembly 105 if low levels of women’s descriptive representation are primarily a result of individual women’s lack of confidence in their own abilities to run for and serve in legislative politics, then it is critical for researchers to take a close look at particular women’s decisionmaking calculi, to understand which concerns and considerations are most salient for women in a specific political environment. because of the great variation in the cultures of states and in the institutional structure of the state legislatures, it is worth studying women’s representation in pennsylvania independently. moreover, given the importance of psychological factors for cultivating or dampening women’s political ambition, an analysis of pennsylvania’s political institutions is not sufficient to understand the problem of women’s descriptive representation in its full complexity. a qualitative analysis of openended interviews with female legislators is particularly suited to the job, in order to tease out the explicit and implicit considerations, concerns, and motivations such women had when running and while serving in legislative office. by focusing on the intricacies of the individual and identifying patterns within the larger group, we may be able to reach a better understanding of pennsylvania’s poor record for women’s representation and what might need to change in order to solve it. this exploratory case study of the women in the pennsylvania general assembly aims to shed greater light on the motivations, opportunities, obstacles, and rewards of being a woman in pennsylvania politics by appealing to the experts: the women who have successfully run for and been elected to the state’s legislature despite the odds. i briefly examine demographic information for both male and female legislators and a few unique features of pennsylvania’s legislature and political context, followed by a qualitative analysis of interviews with several women legislators in pennsylvania. the findings indicate that supportive families, mentors, and political parties, as well as the availability of open seats helped the women of the pennsylvania general assembly to develop the confidence they needed to run for legislative office, despite the particular challenges posed by pennsylvania’s political context. women’s representation in pennsylvania as of 2016, pennsylvania is ranked 40th among the 50 states for its share of female state legislators, currently at 18.6%, including nine of 50 senators (18%) and 38 of 203 representatives (18.7%) (cawp 2016a). the percentage of women in the pennsylvania general assembly has increased fairly steadily over time (see figure 1). 106 kathleen m. rogers when one looks at the pennsylvania general assembly in isolation, it appears that the descriptive representation of women in the legislature is a success story, with fairly steady growth over time. however, a comparison of pennsylvania with its border states reveals that pennsylvania’s progress actually trails behind the progress of those states—with the exception of west virginia, which has previously seen higher percentages of women in its legislature despite its recent decline (see figure 2). pennsylvania’s border states have consistently ranked above pennsylvania for the percentage of women in their state legislatures, with sharper increases over time, even in combination with larger decreases in the proportion of women in their legislatures. the case of the pennsylvania general assembly is particularly interesting because it is the largest fulltime state legislature, and it is highly professionalized (ncsl 2016). highly professionalized legislatures require 80% or more of a fulltime job and offer salaries that legislators can live on without relying on an alternative source of income. these legislatures usually have larger districts, longer sessions, and more staff than less professionalized volunteer or parttime legislatures (ncsl 2016). women can be discouraged from pursuing positions in fulltime legislatures because of their disproportionate responsibilities as homemakers and primary caregivers for their families (mariani 2008; norrander and wilcox 2005). fox and lawless (2014) found that the women in their study of figure 1. percentage of women in the pennsylvania general assembly, 1975–2016. (center for american women and politics, “state fact sheet—pennsylvania.” available at http://www.cawp.rutgers.edu/state_fact_sheets/pa.) http://www.cawp.rutgers.edu/state_fact_sheets/pa the women of the pennsylvania general assembly 107 potential candidates who had spouses or partners were six times more likely to be responsible for most household tasks than similarly situated men and 10 times more likely to be the primary caregivers for their children (400). as a result, when women do serve in fulltime—and even parttime—legislatures, they are more likely than their male counterparts to be unmarried and/or childless (mariani 2008). female legislators also tend to be older than their male counterparts because many women wait until their children are older to run for office (mariani 2008; werner 1968). a consequence of this shortened political lifespan is that women have less time to move up the political pipeline to run for higher levels of office. a quick look at demographic differences among the men and women in the pennsylvania general assembly suggests that, for women, caregiving responsibilities associated with having a family and fulltime legislative responsibilities may be less compatible than such responsibilities are for men. table 1 highlights some of these differences. while a majority of women in the pennsylvania general assembly were married (62.2 %) in 2014, even more of the men in the legislature were married (81.7 %). the average age among the women in the legislature was 57, and the average age when they were first elected was 49. in contrast, the average age among the men was 52, and the average age when they were first elected was 41 (project vote smart 2014). as such, the men have, on average, five to eight figure 2. percentage of female state legislators in pennsylvania and border states, 1975–2016. (center for american women and politics, “women in state legislatures 2016.” available at http://www.cawp.rutgers.edu/state-by-state.) 108 kathleen m. rogers years more than the women to establish themselves and take on chairmanships, which are determined by seniority in pennsylvania. female legislators in pennsylvania were more likely than the men to have children in 2014—a departure from existing literature—with 84.4% of female legislators having children and 78.8% of male legislators having children (project vote smart 2014). these numbers include adult children, however, and, given the age difference between the men and women, the men may be more likely to have younger children while serving in the legislature. there are more democratic women than republican women in elected offices across the united states, and republican women are even less likely than democratic women to run for office in highly professionalized legislatures (elder 2012; sanbonmatsu 2002). yet, there is a greater share of republican women than democratic women in the largest full-t ime, highly table 1. demographics of women and men in the pennsylvania general assembly, 2014 women of the pa general assembly men of the pa general assembly the pa general assembly democrats 46.7% (21) 46.2% (96) 46.2% (117) republicans 53.3% (24) 53.8% (112) 53.8% (136) senate 17.8% (8) 20.2% (42) 80.2% (50) house 82.2% (37) 79.8% (166) 19.8% (203) white 80.0% (36) 92.8% (193) 90.5% (229) black 17.8% (8) 5.8% (12) 7.9% (20) asian 2.2% (1) 0.0% (0) 0.4% (1) hispanic 0.0% (0) 1.0% (2) 0.8% (2) other 0.0% (0) 0.5% (1) 0.4% (1) married 62.2% (28) 81.7% (170) 78.3% (198) not married 37.7% (17) 18.3% (38) 21.7% (55) have children 84.4% (38) 78.8% (164) 79.8% (202) don’t have children 15.6% (7) 21.2% (44) 20.2% (51) ran against incumbent 17.8% (8) 21.2% (44) 20.6% (52) ran for open seat 82.2% (37) 78.8% (164) 79.4% (201) average age 57.4 52.2 53.1 years in current office 8.9 10.8 10.5 percentage of assembly 17.8% (45) 82.2% (208) 100% (253) note: data in this table were compiled from an online search of the official website for the pennsylvania general assembly, official party caucus and campaign websites for each legislator, and project vote smart. the women of the pennsylvania general assembly 109 professionalized legislature, with 28 republican women (59.6%) and 19 democratic women (40.4%) in the pennsylvania general assembly (cawp 2016a). democratic women may be less likely to consider running for office in pennsylvania than they would be in other states as a result of the absence of term limits and pennsylvania’s relatively low female labor force participation, for which the state was ranked 39th among the 50 states (elder 2012; iwpr 2011). republican women, on the other hand, may be more likely to consider running for office in pennsylvania as a result of the republican party’s efforts to cultivate female leaders, including the establishment of the anne b. anstine excellence in public service series, which is an annual training program designed to prepare republican women to be effective leaders (asher 2014). at least three of the republican women who currently serve in the legislature have graduated from this program. additionally, in an individualistic political culture that requires party support for a successful candidacy (elazar 1984), this extra effort by the republican party to recruit and train women may be an important contributor to the greater number of republican women in pennsylvania’s legislature. in general, pennsylvania women are not likely to serve in political office. no women have served as u.s. senators from pennsylvania, and only seven have been elected to the u.s. house of representatives (cawp 2016a). seven women have served in statewide executive offices, and pennsylvania has never had a female governor (cawp 2016a). pennsylvania women are also less politically active than women in other states, with the state ranking 42nd for women’s voter registration and 38th for women’s voter turnout (iwpr 2004). while these statistics paint a bleak picture of the status of women in pennsylvania politics, there are 47 women in the pennsylvania general assembly. examining the considerations and experiences of these women may allow us to understand how they came to run for office and win their current seats, providing insight into the mechanisms that might encourage or discourage other women from running for office in pennsylvania. research design the qualitative data for this study were collected between march and may 2014. to recruit interview participants, i made phone calls to the harrisburg and district offices for each female legislator. five face-t oface interviews were conducted at the state capitol in harrisburg during one fullday visit in april 2014. two additional legislators participated in partial interviews on the house f loor, during which i did not run through my entire interview 110 kathleen m. rogers questionnaire, but gleaned enough information to warrant inclusion in my results. to encourage participation, the interviews were confidential, and all names have been changed to protect participants’ identities. to achieve greater participation, a link to an online survey was emailed to all women in the pennsylvania general assembly once in march and a second time, immediately after my visit to harrisburg. six of my seven interview participants completed the survey, in addition to nine other women, for a total of 16 study participants out of the 45 women who then served in the legislature (see appendix b for a comparison of the demographics of the study participants to those of the 45 women who served in the legislature in 2014). i was fortunate to have met one of the republican female legislators in the pennsylvania general assembly at a campaign training program for women prior to my data collection process. this legislator and one of her staffers were instrumental in encouraging other women in the legislature to participate. even with this help, however, it was difficult to recruit participants because many of the women in the legislature have a general policy that they do not participate in any research studies. the disproportionate representation of republican women in my interview sample is likely due to the fact that the legislator who helped me recruit more participants was a republican. this may have also had an effect on the racial makeup of my sample, as all of the republican women in the legislature are white. furthermore, participants may have volunteered because of a special interest in the topic under study, which may have skewed their responses. in consequence, the results of this study do not represent the full diversity of experiences of the women in the pennsylvania general assembly due to limited participation. despite these limitations, this study offers a valuable look into the considerations and experiences of several women who have broken into pennsylvania’s maledominated legislature. findings being a woman in a profession that is coded as male can introduce a number of conflicts among various gendered expectations. all but two survey respondents cited stereotypically feminine qualities as their greatest strengths as a public official. these included their relatability, approachability, ability to communicate and work with others, and their ability to compromise. many, however, also named stereotypically feminine weaknesses, including a lack of interest in taking credit for one’s achievements, taking on too much and trying to do everything for everyone, and juggling work and family roles. such responses draw attention to the inherent contradiction of being a woman in political office: one must negotiate expectations from the party, the voters, the women of the pennsylvania general assembly 111 and one’s own colleagues to be “man enough” in some instances, but “woman enough” in others. qualitative interview data reveals several facets of legislative life that are particularly salient for the women of the pennsylvania general assembly: party recruitment and support, juggling work and family expectations, the incumbency advantage, and the importance of having confidence in one’s own qualifications. party recruitment and support men are more likely to be selfstarter candidates, primarily due to their higher levels of confidence in their qualifications for public office. in contrast, women tend to underestimate their qualifications and, as a result, will often not even consider a candidacy until they are explicitly asked to run (fox and lawless 2010a, 2010b, 2012, 2013; rozell 2008). additionally, all types of political gatekeepers, including party leaders, elected officials, and political activists, tend to recruit far more men than women. since being recruited is often an individual’s first step toward considering a candidacy, the consequence is that more men than women consider running for office and demonstrate political ambition (fox and lawless 2004, 2005, 2010a, 2010b, 2012, 2013). a few interview participants spoke at length about party discrimination against women. for example, lynn explained: i think the voters are okay with women, but the party officials are more comfortable with people who look like them, and they’re men . . . party officials at all levels are less likely to support women. and both sides, you know, some people think that republicans are conservative, but the democrats are just as nasty to their women elected officials .  .  . and so my experience with the republicans is that they don’t recruit women, they don’t look for women, you know, you have to sort of bully your way into the table, and then once you’re there, okay, fine, they treat you fine. some have suggested that women’s organizations can counteract the discriminatory recruitment practices of parties (carroll and dittmar 2012; fox and lawless 2010b; rozell 2008; schmedlen 2001). a couple of interview participants mentioned women’s organizations, but the comments were not positive. dianne explained her greatest disappointment as follows: “when i went to women’s organizations for support, the first thing they would ask is ‘what is your opinion on abortion?’ . . . and, as soon as i said prolife, that was it. i 112 kathleen m. rogers got no help.” because party support is so important in individualistic political cultures and because women’s organizations tend not to support republican women, the efforts of women’s organizations may not be very effective in pennsylvania. it is up to the parties to actively encourage women through recruitment, training, resources, and support. a few of terry’s friends once suggested that she consider running for the state house, and her immediate response was, “you’re crazy! i’m not qualified! . . . what do i know about politics and raising money for a campaign and all the mechanics of it?” but then, four days before the filing deadline, the incumbent democrat in a nearby district called her and said, “the house democratic campaign committee wants you to run. we know you have no experience, but we’ll teach you everything you need to know, and if you work hard and can help raise your own money, we’ll give you all the support that we can.” looking back, she recalls, “i never did decide that i wanted to run. it was sort of decided for me . . . but having said that . . . i’d always been interested in public policy. . . . so, i think that helped me be more open to the idea when i was convinced that i would receive enough help and support to actually not make a fool of myself.” terry received many suggestions to run from friends, but she did not feel qualified or prepared to run for office in pennsylvania until she knew that she would have access to the resources and support of her party. work and family balance in her interview, carrie explained that she feels a great deal of guilt being away from her children while she is in harrisburg. she stressed that she is very lucky to live relatively close to the capital, allowing her to travel home for a late dinner on session days. she admitted that if she lived much farther away, she would have to reconsider whether she could work in harrisburg. carrie also pointed out that men do not face the same degree of discomfort while being away from their children: “it’s a tremendous sacrifice for your family. where, the men that i work with, like, they’re wonderful fathers, and they’re wonderful husbands, but i don’t think that they have that guilt that is associated with it.” another woman, joan, expressed similar sentiments, saying, “there is some pressure to be a mom and . . . we put pressure on ourselves to be everything to everyone . . . it’s challenging sometimes to be away from your home for three days . . . we still have homes to maintain and husbands and kids and life.” she also explained that she has been criticized for pursuing a political career with young children. she said, “there were . . . generally older women [who said], ‘what about your little children? you need to be their mom.’” the women of the pennsylvania general assembly 113 joan was not the only woman who faced criticism; dianne received similar questions from women: “why are you not staying home with your children?” in no interview did any of the women question the notion that women should be responsible for the bulk of childcare; they merely discussed the challenges associated with juggling their family and legislative responsibilities. even when carrie pointed out that the men in the legislature do not experience the same degree of guilt while being away from their children, she characterized them as “wonderful” fathers and husbands. it seems that there are different understandings of motherhood and fatherhood at play. a male legislator can be away from his children for three full days a week and maintain his reputation as a “wonderful” father; a female legislator, however, is scolded for doing the same. “what about your little children? you need to be their mom” implies that a woman is not being a mom while she is working in the public sphere. men are not similarly stripped of their fatherhood while traversing the private and public spheres. such characterization reinforces strict gender roles, with men working in politics and women staying home and raising children. multiple women discussed the importance of their families’ support, which has made their demanding schedules and responsibilities more manageable. carrie, in particular, expressed gratitude for her father and godmother because they have to “pick up the slack” and get her kids to school while she is away in harrisburg. conflicts between familial and legislative responsibilities did not ultimately deter the women in the pennsylvania general assembly from running for office, but they frequently deter other women from considering a political career, especially if they live farther away, are unable to rely on their families to take on their household and childcare responsibilities, or cannot afford daycare. such stressors may be particularly strong deterrents for women of color and/or women from lower socioeconomic classes. these challenges can become even more discouraging in combination with other factors, such as the unavailability of an open seat to run for. running for open seats incumbents are reelected to their offices more often than not (welch, et al. 1985), so it makes sense for any candidate to wait to run for office until a seat becomes vacated. although carrie was actually one of the few women who ran and won against an incumbent, during her interview, she addressed the risk of running at the “wrong time” against a “really beloved person,” explaining that the chances of winning would be very slim. 114 kathleen m. rogers a couple of interview participants explained that working in the pennsylvania general assembly is an attractive job for men because it pays well. terry explained that men see the legislature as a great opportunity to make money and move up the ladder in business or politics, but women are deterred by the “dirtiness of it.” lynn agreed that men are often attracted by the legislature’s high salary and excellent benefits, and she added that political parties are extremely important in pennsylvania, especially in terms of standing a chance against an incumbent: “here in pennsylvania, we don’t have a lot of turnover—more than we used to, but we don’t have a whole lot, and so the party helps you get one of those slots. if the party is not helping women, women are not going to be there . . . so the incumbent is going to win, and the incumbent happens to be a male in most places.” most women that i spoke with did not consider running for office at all until a seat had already opened up and someone had suggested that they run for it. joan had not been considering a candidacy until her predecessor asked if she would be interested in running for his seat: “he called and said, ‘are you ready to go?’ and i thought he was taking me to lunch. and he said, ‘i’m not running . . . i want you to know. are you interested?’ and i thought about [it for] two minutes and said, ‘absolutely, i’m interested and would love to’.” liz had never considered running for office, even though she had always been very active in local politics. additionally, she had never thought about how few women serve in public office until she overheard a conversation among coworkers about the issue. since then, it has become very important to her. still, she did not run until a seat opened up in the pennsylvania general assembly and someone asked her to run for it. the professionalization of the pennsylvania general assembly draws in more competition from men who are attracted by the high salary, and the absence of term limits results in incumbents staying in office for longer, producing fewer open seats for political outsiders. as of 2014, only eight of the 45 women (17.8 %) had won their seats by running against an incumbent, while 82.2% had run for seats that were vacated by retiring incumbents, incumbents running for higher offices, or, in the case of one woman, by the death of her husband, who was the incumbent. in contrast, 21.2% of men had run against incumbents, and 78.8% had run for open seats (the pennsylvania general assembly 2015). women are somewhat less likely than men to challenge an incumbent, perhaps because of a lack of confidence in their qualifications (fox and lawless 2010a, 2010b, 2012, 2013), even though there is no significant difference in the performance of female and male candidates (darcy and schramm 1977; jenkins 2007; schlozman and uhlaner 1986). the women of the pennsylvania general assembly 115 developing confidence and political ambition in their interviews, lynn and terry expressed frustration about women’s lack of confidence and ambition: you kind of want to believe that your state rep and your state senator and your congressman and your united states senator are all smarter than you are . . . you want to believe the governor is smarter than you are. you want to believe that the president’s smarter than you are. guess what, they are not. you know, so women need to have confidence in their own ability to handle these jobs. they can handle it. they can handle it. they can do it. so women need to be encouraged to step up as opposed to being drafted. —lynn it’s an attitude, i think, that women have that they are lesser, and they are not. they are not. in fact, i would suggest that, you know, any woman who’s been a wife, a mother, a homemaker, a business person, is every bit as qualified as any man who runs, but i’m not sure they perceive it that way. —terry the trope of the “ambitious office seeker” (aldrich 2011) assumes a typically male orientation toward candidate emergence, given men’s relatively independent and autonomous decisionmaking context, unconstrained by caregiving roles and expectations. as a result of traditional gender socialization, women often do not consider the possibility of running for office until they are explicitly recruited (carroll and sanbonmatsu 2013; fox and lawless 2010a, 2010b). the gender gap in political ambition is important to acknowledge; but to conclude that women simply do not have enough of it is to obscure the realities of women’s lives and gendered expectations. susan carroll and kira sanbonmatsu (2013) have challenged fox and lawless’s assumption that women emerge as candidates through the same pipeline and decisionmaking process as men, arguing, instead, that women tend to make a “relationally embedded decision,” influenced more by their relationships with other people than by their individual ambition. while virtually all women i spoke with needed to be recruited to run, they all ultimately believed that they were qualified for their positions, setting themselves apart from other women who did not decide to run. many gained this confidence as a result of a “politicized upbringing,” which is characterized by frequent discussions of politics at home, running for office as a student, community involvement, and parental encouragement (fox and lawless 2005, 2014). 116 kathleen m. rogers carrie originally wanted to be a psychologist, but, around age 15, she took a sociology class and an american government class, which heavily influenced her decision to pursue a political career. annice explained that she had been very active in her community from a young age, and although she had never aspired to run for office, her leadership in her community helped her to build a network that became very useful when a seat opened up and multiple people asked her to run for it. when asked who their political role models were, seven survey respondents named women, including hillary clinton, eleanor roosevelt, madeleine albright, former state senator jeanette reibman, city councilmember betty eiceman, and margaret thatcher. a few also listed their own mothers, who had worked and been politically active while raising children. when it came to mentors, however, 10, or 66.7% of respondents noted that their most significant mentor had been male, and 11, or 73.3% responded that these mentors were “very important” to their political career. these results suggest that many women in the pennsylvania general assembly were able to imagine themselves as leaders as a result of growing up and seeing various politically active female role models, and they were perhaps better able to integrate themselves into a masculine political environment with the help of key male mentors. discussion and conclusion there is a need to have women and minorities in public office, as we represent a portion of society that did not always have the ability to even vote. —carrie while the female legislators that i interviewed had a variety of motivations for running for office, as well as different paths that led them to politics, a few patterns emerged from their experiences. most women were discouraged by many of the same factors that frequently prevent most women from considering a candidacy or running for office, such as conflicts between legislative and familial responsibilities. they were able to overcome such challenges as a result of their own unique circumstances and experiences. while time spent away from their families often evoked feelings of guilt, living close to harrisburg, having a supportive family, and/or waiting to run for office until their children grew older helped to alleviate many of their concerns, allowing the women of the pennsylvania general assembly to run for office when an opportunity presented itself. the women of the pennsylvania general assembly 117 most interview respondents explained that “timing” is key in politics, and it is important to be prepared to take opportunities if and when they come along. this philosophy led many women to run for open seats after an incumbent had stepped down and someone had suggested that they run. unfortunately, seats do not open up often because the pennsylvania general assembly, a highly professionalized legislature, offers attractive benefits that often lead male incumbents to desire longer tenures in office. additionally, the absence of term limits in pennsylvania allows incumbents to stay as long as they and their constituents would like. if a woman hopes to run for any seat in pennsylvania, whether it is an open seat or whether it is occupied by an incumbent, it is almost always necessary that she has her party’s support. most participants were recruited to run for office, and they often found their party’s support to be very important. women’s organizations, on the other hand, did not prove to be very helpful. a politicized upbringing and the efforts of mentors allowed the women of the pennsylvania general assembly to gain experiences and skills that made them confident enough to consider a candidacy. additionally, while most of the women are not interested in running for higher offices, many suggested that they would be open to taking another opportunity if the timing was right. in addition to learning about the motivations, opportunities, obstacles, and rewards of being a woman in pennsylvania state politics, these findings may offer additional insight into the future of women in pennsylvania politics and, perhaps, women in politics more broadly. joan suggested that women will eventually reach parity with men in pennsylvania politics if we are patient. based on the progress of women’s inclusion in the pennsylvania general assembly thus far, it is certainly possible that women will continue to be elected at a slow, but steady rate. this may happen as more male incumbents retire or leave office for other reasons. lynn, however, believes that women need to be more active in pursuing political careers: i think studies have shown that women need to be asked to run, but, remember, the men don’t need to be asked to run . . . we’re never going to reach parity in pennsylvania unless women step up, you know, and say, “i want to run.” because if women are waiting to be asked, the election is going to be dead, done, and gone without them getting it. and then you have an incumbent who’s going to be reelected. to remedy this, women are going to need to be empowered by their families and by their parties, recognizing women’s relational decisionmaking 118 kathleen m. rogers context. inclusion and support of women by the political parties are going to be especially important since pennsylvania’s individualistic political culture necessitates party support in order to succeed politically (elazar 1984). most importantly, a qualitative analysis of interviews with women legislators in pennsylvania suggests that their experiences are exceptional; they have come up against many of the same psychological challenges as many other potential female candidates in pennsylvania, but they were able to imagine themselves as candidates and run for office because of the convergence of certain fortunate circumstances. the women of the pennsylvania general assembly benefited from the support of various actors, including their families, mentors, and parties, as well as from the availability of open seats and timely suggestions to run, circumstances that do not apply to all women. further qualitative research, including interviews with women who ran and lost in pennsylvania or women who considered running, but ultimately decided not to run, could provide important comparisons to the interview findings reported here, helping to further narrow down those considerations that most prevent women from running for office in pennsylvania. appendix a. interview questions 1. at what point did you know you wanted to run for elective office (in general)? 2. did you have any political mentors or role models who inspired you to run for office? if so, what kind of support, advice, encouragement, or inspiration did they give you when you were making the decision to run for office? 3. how has being a woman mattered, if at all, to your experiences with politics? 4. do you think your experiences have been different from those of similarly qualified men? if yes, how? 5. if you were to advise a young woman about running for your current office, what sort of steps or strategies would you advise her to take to prepare herself as a credible candidate? 6. what do you see yourself doing after you leave your current office? 7. given that there are so few women in elective office in pennsylvania, as well as within the united states as a whole, what do you think has made you so successful? 8. why do you think there are so few women in elective office in the united states and in the pennsylvania general assembly, in particular? the women of the pennsylvania general assembly 119 supplemental survey questions (the survey was administered in surveymonkey. additional closeended questions were asked, but not reported in this note.) 1. what would you say is your major personal asset or strength as a public official? 2. what would you say is your major weakness or challenge as a public official? 3. prior to running for office, who would you say was your political role model? be as specific as possible in your answer. 4. how important have mentors been to your political career? • i did not have a mentor. • not at all important • somewhat important • very important 5. was/is your most significant mentor male or female? • i did not have a mentor. • male • female appendix b table b.1. comparison of study participants to all women in the pennsylvania general assembly, 2014 women of the pa general assembly all study participants survey participants interview participants democrats 46.7% (21) 50.0% (8) 53.3% (8) 28.6% (2) republicans 53.3% (24) 50.0% (8) 46.7% (7) 71.4% (5) senate 17.8% (8) 12.5% (2) 13.3% (2) 0.0% (0) house 82.2% (37) 87.5% (14) 86.7% (13) 100.0% (7) white 80.0% (36) 87.5% (14) 86.7% (13) 100.0% (7) black 17.8% (8) 6.3% (1) 6.7% (1) 0.0% (0) asian 2.2% (1) 6.3% (1) 6.7% (1) 0.0% (0) married 62.2% (28) 75.0% (12) 73.3% (11) 71.4% (5) not married 37.7% (17) 25.0% (4) 26.7% (4) 28.6% (2) have children 84.4% (38) 93.8% (15) 93.3% (14) 100.0% (7) don’t have children 15.6% (7) 6.3% (1) 6.7% (1) 0.0% (0) ran against incumbent 17.8% (8) 18.8% (3) 20.0% (3) 42.9% (3) ran for open seat 82.2% (37) 81.3% (13) 80.0% (12) 57.1% (4) average age 57.4 58.6 58.1 57.3 years in current office 8.9 9.1 8.9 10 percentage of women in assembly 100.0% (45) 35.6% (16) 33.3% (15) 15.6% (7) note: data in this table were compiled from an online search of the official website for the pennsylvania general assembly, official party caucus and campaign websites for each legislator, and project vote smart. table b.2. descriptive representation of women in the state legislatures, 2016 state rank % women state rank % women colorado 1 42.0% missouri 26 24.9% vermont 2 41.1% georgia 27 24.6% arizona 3 35.6% delaware* 28 24.2% washington 4 34.0% kansas* 28 24.2% minnesota 5 33.3% north carolina 30 22.9% illinois 6 32.8% iowa 31 22.7% maryland 7 31.9% nebraska 32 22.4% nevada 8 31.7% south dakota 33 21.0% montana 9 31.3% michigan 34 20.9% oregon 10 31.1% indiana 35 20.7% alaska* 11 30.0% arkansas 36 20.0% new jersey* 11 30.0% texas 37 19.9% maine 13 29.6% virginia 38 19.3% hawaii 14 28.9% north dakota 39 19.1% new hampshire 15 28.8% pennsylvania 40 18.6% connecticut 16 28.3% tennessee 41 16.7% idaho 17 27.6% kentucky 42 15.9% rhode island 18 27.4% utah 43 15.4% new mexico 19 26.8% west virginia 44 14.9% new york 20 26.3% louisiana 45 14.6% california* 21 25.8% alabama 46 14.3% ohio* 21 25.8% oklahoma* 47 14.1% wisconsin* 21 25.8% south carolina* 47 14.1% florida* 24 25.0% mississippi 49 13.8% massachusetts* 24 25.0% wyoming 50 13.3% source: center for american women and politics, “women in state legislatures 2016,” available at 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40–50. kathleen m. rogers is a doctoral student in political science at rutgers university, where she is studying women and politics and american politics. she is a graduate of muhlenberg college. http://www.ncsl.org/research/about-state-legislatures/full-and-part-time-legislatures.aspx http://www.ncsl.org/research/about-state-legislatures/full-and-part-time-legislatures.aspx http://www.legis.state.pa.us/ http://votesmart.org http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/42000.html structure bookmarks women’s representation in pennsylvania research design findings discussion and conclusion ó in the commonwealth gerard j. fitzpatrick, editor it seems fitting that four of the five articles in this volume of the penn­ sylvania political science association's professional journal concern poli­ tics in pennsylvania. moreover, these pennsylvania focused pieces speak to a variety of political science subfields, including political economy, presi­ dential elections, voting behavior, and state government. providing some topical balance while further extending the fields of interest addressed in this issue of commonwealth, the one non-pennsylvania essay involves international relations and political theory. in short, ours may be a small journal but it consistently covers much academic territory. in our lead article, dr. gordon p. henderson underscores the connec­ tions between political philosophy and international politics by explor­ ing the thought of immanuel kant with regard to the place of morality in foreign affairs. he not only illuminates the theoretical tension between the moral and the political on the world stage, but he also brings these abstract ideas to bear on the contemporary debate between "realists" and "idealists" in foreign affairs. kant's teachings, dr. henderson con­ cludes, support a cautious optimism with regard to the prospects for peace among nations. among the most contentious topics in recent years has been the north american free trade agreement (nafta). dr. paul g. kengor and r. c. phinney examine the impact of nafta on pennsylvania. they find that despite the claim of critics that the treaty would harm the state's economy by causing an exodus of manufacturing jobs to foreign nations, nafta has in fact helped pennsylvania by significantly increasing its overseas exports. while their findings do not resolve the debate over job losses or other controversial aspects of nafta, they indicate that there is more to the free trade debate than meets the eve . .i one of the most significant df'velopments in prf'sidential elec­ toral politics has been the recent trend toward "frontloading," the pro­ cess whereby states schedule their presidential primaries increasingly early in hope of having more influence in determining the party nomi­ nees. through a comparison of pennsylvania and ohio in the presiden­ tial nominating process, dr. james e. vike explains why our state has eschewed the frontloading trend, even though scheduling presidential primaries earlier would likely increase candidate competitiveness, cam­ paign activity, voter choice, and voter turnout. berwood yost explains why republicans control most statewide of­ fices in pennsylvarua, as well as both houses of the state legislature, even though democrats have a decided edge in voter registration. using a random survey of pennsylvania voters to probe the difference between party orientation and party registration, he finds that more democrats in pennsylvania identify with the republican party than vice versa, indi­ cating that party identification is a better predictor of voting behavior than is party registration. he also identifies some intriguing geographic patterns in the distribution of these "misaligned voters." this issue of commonwealth closes with a special feature: the address of former pennsylvania house speaker herbert fineman to the 2003 meeting of the pennsylvania political science association, with com­ mentary by michael cassidy. few people know our state legislature as well as mr. cassidy does, for he has worked there for a quarter of a cen­ tury as a member, staff assistant, and scholar. in his commentary, he traces the crucial role speaker fineman played in bringing about institu­ tional reform in pennsylvania, and he places reform developments in the state within the context of the larger legislative modernization movement. as always, this issue of commonwealth would not have been possible without quality submissions and quality reviews. i therefore ex­ tend my deepest thanks to the authors and anonymous referees with whom i have worked during the past year. by contributing their time and talent, they have helped to make ours an ever better professional journal. un­ fortunately, we continue to receive only a small number of manuscripts, most of which are rejected. if issues of commonwealth as strong as this one are to be produced in a timely manner, readers must submit their work for consideration and urge their colleagues to do so too. the great divide commonwealth, volume 19, issue 1 (2017). © 2017 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/com.v19i1.133. all rights reserved. the great divide public perceptions of shale gas extraction and hydraulic fracturing in pennsylvania and new york erick lachapelle university of montreal this study compares public perceptions of shale gas extraction and hydraulic fracturing in two of the most populous states with significant shale gas reserves but with vastly different approaches to developing this resource. drawing on data from a comparative survey administered to two statewide samples in pennsylvania (n = 411) and new york (n = 404), the study examines the correlates of support for hydraulic fracturing, as well as general levels of public awareness, and perceptions of effects of hydraulic fracturing within the marcellus shale play. though the level of awareness of the fracking issue among residents of pennsylvania and new york is found to be similarly high, levels of support for fracking differ, mirroring distinctive policy approaches found in these neighboring states. the correlates of support for fracking include being republican, having a conservative ideology, and being male. the study also finds that residents of new york are more aware of fracking policy and debate in pennsylvania than vice versa, with many new york residents perceiving negative effects on their home state as a result of fracking in neighboring pennsylvania. this asymmetric level of awareness and concern raises new questions on the role of cross-b order perceptions in shaping opinion toward hydraulic fracturing in adjacent states. the marcellus formation in the northeastern corner of the united states contains one of the most robust deposits of natural gas found in north america. stretching from west virginia northward to the great divide 49 central new york state, the marcellus shale deposit contains an estimated 141 trillion cubic feet of natural gas (u.s. energy information administration 2012). while the deposit is a unified geographic feature, it lies under an array of political jurisdictions including at least some portion of nine states and one canadian province. with little federal intervention in the regulation of the extraction of natural gas from shale, state governments have played a primary role in overseeing drilling activity within the marcellus shale play (rabe 2014; warner and shapiro 2013). this situation has created striking differences in policy approaches throughout the marcellus region, with the most extreme example of policy variation occurring on both sides of the 306 mile border that separates the state of new york and the commonwealth of pennsylvania. this state border, which intersects the heart of the marcellus play, has become a divide between one of the most active hydraulic fracturing regions in the united states and a neighboring state where the shale play remains largely untouched. this geography is such that some new york residents living on the border can see drill sites across the state line, as rigs in pennsylvania drill for natural gas in the same shale formation that sits beneath their property. in light of the substantial economic, environmental, and social costs and benefits of hydraulic fracturing (or “fracking”) for natural gas (eaton 2013; sovacool 2014), it is not surprising that this matter has become a major political issue. in this context, this study compares public perceptions of shale gas extraction and hydraulic fracturing in two marcellus states that have adopted vastly different approaches to developing this resource. analyzing data from the national survey on energy and the environment (nsee), the study examines comparative views on such matters as public awareness of hydraulic fracturing, general support for shale gas drilling, and perceptions of effects of hydraulic fracturing within the marcellus shale play. this includes a series of innovative questions that explore, for the first time, what pennsylvanians and new yorkers know and think about hydraulic fracturing activity in their neighboring states, allowing for the examination of how experience with fracking and proximity to active shale plays in one state can influence opinions in neighboring jurisdictions. hydraulic fracturing: the pennsylvania and new york context involving the injection of water and chemicals at high pressure to crack open shale rock and release oil and gas deep below the surface, the process of hydraulic fracturing has been used by industry for decades. however, the 50 erick lachapelle fairly recent introduction of horizontal drilling techniques combined with highvolume hydraulic fracturing has enhanced oil and gas recovery from reserves previously considered inaccessible. the technological developments in hydraulic fracturing have enabled the growth of efforts to extract gas from shale deposits in many regions of the united states. in fact, the oil and gas exemptions in the 2005 energy policy act have removed regulatory power from the environmental protection agency, thus leaving state governments largely in control of the regulation of this practice (warner and shapiro 2013; rabe 2014). despite the growing use of these techniques, and though sharing similar access to the marcellus shale deposit, pennsylvania and new york have adopted strikingly different approaches to hydraulic fracturing over the last decade. indeed, pennsylvania has seen broad and intense expansion in the use of hydraulic fracturing since the process was first applied in the commonwealth in 2003 (harper 2008; rabe and borick 2013). in 2012 natural gas from shale accounted for more than 90% of the state’s natural gas production (u.s. energy information administration 2014). the growth in shale gas drilling has led to large-s cale public debates within pennsylvania that have in turn produced a number of highly controversial policies, most notably, the state’s oil and gas act. passed by the state government in early 2012, the oil and gas act, or act 13, established the framework for governance of unconventional gas drilling in pennsylvania. the legislation creates an impact fee on wells drilled, with revenue primarily going to local governments where drilling takes place. act 13 also provides baseline water supply protections and limited fracking fluid chemical disclosure; establishes statewide environmental standards with respect to fracking; and outlines processes for well inspections, permitting, environmental protections, well location restrictions, and wateruse regulations. overall, these regulations have generally been considered proindustry. indeed, former governor tom corbett, a principle architect and strong supporter of act 13, prioritized shale gas exploration and development throughout his term as governor, receiving numerous campaign donations from those aligned with the oil and gas industry (rabe and borick 2013). ultimately, corbett’s continued opposition to an extraction tax—despite growing pressure from within his own party—opened the door to his electoral defeat to tom wolf, who successfully exploited corbett’s lax shale policies on his road to becoming governor. nevertheless, the keystone state continues to harbor a permissive approach to the industry, despite recent declines in drilling that resulted from a combination of low oil and gas prices and the declining rate of production from older wells in the state. the great divide 51 across the border, the picture in new york is considerably different. despite an abundant supply of shale gas within its share of the marcellus play, new york has not permitted high volume hydraulic fracturing for unconventional gas and oil exploration. although no unconventional gas drilling is taking place in the empire state, there has been considerable study and debate regarding hydraulic fracturing. indeed, after a new york state legislature decision to pass a temporary moratorium on fracking was passed in 2010, the legislative session 2013–2014 featured an array of proposed bills, perhaps in anticipation of an eventual removal of the moratorium following a regulatory review conducted by the new york state department of environmental conservation (dec). the dec currently regulates the drilling, operation, and plugging of natural gas wells and would manage hydraulic fracturing– related regulations if the ban were lifted. yet after seven years of review, the dec released a statement concluding that new york should not proceed with hydraulic fracturing in the state (dec 2015), creating the basis for a comprehensive ban on use of this technology in new york, and setting up a legal battle among fracking opponents and proponents in the state (coin 2015). research questions and literature review the strikingly different policy approaches present an ideal opportunity for analyzing differences in state-l evel public attitudes toward hydraulic fracturing. existing literature has begun to f lesh out these policy differences, examining policy efforts in pennsylvania (rabe and borick 2012, 2013) as well as regulatory efforts in new york (boscarino 2013; barnes 2013). efforts to link these policy differences to differences in public opinion, however, are rare. while there is growing literature on public opinion on this issue, relatively few studies are based on representative state-l evel samples that maximize comparability within and across state populations. moreover, questions about perceptions of fracking activity happening out of state are even scarcer. this study contributes to the emerging literature on public attitudes toward hydraulic fracturing by examining responses to a comparative survey administered to statewide representative samples of the pennsylvania and new york populations in 2014. given the relative novelty of high-v olume hydraulic fracturing with horizontal drilling, it may not be surprising to find that the number of studies on public opinion on this matter is fairly limited. nevertheless, a growing body of literature has provided insight into how americans view this matter. some of this research examines nationally representative samples to paint a highlevel picture of how americans perceive this issue. for instance, the 52 erick lachapelle pew research center for the people and the press (2012, 2015) has conducted a number of nationallevel studies that have examined awareness of and support for hydraulic fracturing in the united states. among other things, this research has found that while americans are divided on whether they support increased use of fracking, only about a quarter (26%) report having heard a lot about this issue, while pluralities have heard a little (37%) or nothing at all (37%). these findings are generally corroborated in one of the most comprehensive scholarly studies of public attitudes regarding hydraulic fracturing conducted to date (boudet et al. 2014). in this study, a nationally representative sample of over 1,000 adult americans were found to have very limited awareness of hydraulic fracturing within the united states, and mixed levels of support for the practice. the study also found that support is affected by a number of factors, including having a conservative political ideology, while increased familiarity with fracking, having egalitarian worldviews, reading the newspaper, and being female was found to increase opposition. other nationallevel studies have found evidence of partisan polarization on this issue (clarke et al. 2016; borick and clarke 2016) and that the term “fracking” itself (as opposed to framing the question around shale oil or gas development) heightens opposition to this practice among americans (clarke et al. 2015; climek et al. 2014). while contributing to our understanding of the factors that help shape public attitudes toward hydraulic fracturing, these nationally representative samples potentially overlook important differences at the state level. given the nonuniform distribution of shale gas deposits and fracking activity across the continental united states, one might expect frackingrelated knowledge and awareness to vary spatially. in particular, levels of awareness and support are likely to be heterogeneous across states, varying with the degree of experience and familiarity with the issue. to better explore the role of such geographic context in shaping public attitudes toward fracking, numerous studies have begun to explore public attitudes at the state and local levels. for instance, a series of studies in pennsylvania by the muhlenberg college institute of public opinion and the center for local state and urban policy at the university of michigan have examined public opinion of hydraulic fracturing in that state. these studies have found that most pennsylvanians tend to see hydraulic fracturing as positive for the commonwealth but also harbor substantial concerns about the policies and risks associated with shale gas extraction (brown et al. 2013; muhlenberg college institute of public opinion 2011). comparative studies drawing on the same data have shown that the role of information varies depending on place, exerting a powerful effect in quebec, but not in michigan and pennsylvania (lachapelle and montpetit 2014). the great divide 53 other studies focus on the substate level. one of the first efforts to analyze public opinion at this more local level is a study by jacquet (2012), which administered a mail survey to landowners in a region in northern pennsylvania that had experienced simultaneous development of both the wind and natural gas development industries. this study found that proximity explained little variation in attitudes toward wind and natural gas development in the region, but that individuals with environmental attitudes, and those leasing their land, had, respectively, significantly more negative and significantly more positive attitudes toward the gas industry. in another study, stedman et al. (2012) use a random sample of new york and pennsylvania residents within the marcellus shale region to compare views on shale gas issues between these states. they found new yorkers were more likely than pennsylvanians living on the same shale play to have negative views of both hydraulic fracturing and the shale gas industry, but that there were no differences across state lines in knowledge and awareness about the subject. employing a similar research design, brasier et al. (2013) examine risk perceptions in counties located in the core of the marcellus shale play in pennsylvania (21 counties) and new york (8 counties). this study also found that residing in new york increases the probability of seeing greater risk from gas drilling. in addition, brasier et al. (2013) found that awareness of nearby gas wells is weakly associated with lower risk perceptions in bivariate correlations but that this effect disappears when additional variables are included in a regression model. a final study by kriesky et al. (2013) compares views across residents living in adjacent washington and allegheny counties. this study finds that attitudes are more positive where drilling activity is relatively more intense (i.e., in washington county), that this is especially true when individuals have leased their mineral rights, and that perceived economic benefits drive support among respondents. overall, existing studies help identify the factors that help shape public attitudes and perceptions toward hydraulic fracturing. several important questions, however, remain. for instance, how does the structure of public opinion in pennsylvania compare to that in new york, at the state level? to what extent do these opinions map onto the different policy approaches adopted by each state? what is the role of information and experience with hydraulic fracturing in shaping attitudes toward this industry? how much attention do residents of pennsylvania and new york pay to fracking developments across the border, and how do these views affect perceptions of risk and overall support? in pursuing answers to these questions, the present study seeks to accomplish a number of goals. first it seeks to directly compare statewide attitudes, 54 erick lachapelle beliefs, and preferences regarding hydraulic fracturing in both new york and pennsylvania, using statewide representative surveys. this represents an important difference with much of the existing literature, which tends to rely on national samples, or otherwise focus on targeted subsets of state populations. given that statewide policy decisions are likely to reflect statewide public opinion and not just opinion in a section of the state where there is actual (or potential) fracking taking place, it is valuable to measure opinion and explore the correlates of support for and opposition toward hydraulic fracturing among representative samples of all residents in two marcellus shale states. this study is thus explicitly designed to better address how residents in both new york and pennsylvania respond to identical questions fielded at the same time to allow direct comparison of the structure of opinion on hydraulic fracturing within these states. second, beyond providing a more complete understanding of the differences in areas such as issue awareness and policy support, the direct comparisons of statewide opinion on hydraulic fracturing allow for inquiry into the alignment between state policies and public opinion. a large body of political science research has found a linkage between state-l evel public opinion and policy adoption across an array of policy domains (burstein 2003; pacheco 2013; wright, erikson and mciver 1993; johnson, brace and arceneaux 2005). given the vastly different policy approaches toward shale gas extraction in these two marcellus shale play states, one might anticipate varied opinion among the residents of new york and pennsylvania that generally aligns with these divergent policy outcomes. a third major goal of this study, and perhaps a unique offering to the literature, is to compare the level of knowledge and opinion that residents of new york and pennsylvania have about hydraulic fracturing levels and policy in their neighboring state and to explore the effect of that knowledge and opinion on policy preferences within their own states. a robust body of literature has examined the diffusion of public policies between states (gray 1973; mintrom 1997; mooney 2001; glick and frieland 2014). a variety of internal political, economic, and social factors helps to explain why statelevel policymaking behavior resembles a “system of emulation” (walker 1969), as neighbors imitate policies found in other jurisdictions. in more recent work, glick and friedland (2014) demonstrate that learning from other states facilitates policy diffusion and that this scenario is most likely to occur among policymakers in adjacent states. while considerable evidence shows that policymakers do learn from and emulate others, little research examines what citizens themselves know about issues and policies in neighboring states. a study by schneider, jacoby, and lewis (2011) uses a national survey to provide the great divide 55 insight into what americans prefer in terms of intergovernmental relations, including statetostate relationships, but does not delve into what individuals may know and think about policies in other states. the present study seeks to fill this gap, by examining the extent to which knowledge of what is occurring across state lines influences policy preferences within adjacent states. data and methods to answer these questions, this study draws on data from an april and may 2014 telephone survey conducted by the muhlenberg institute of public opinion, in collaboration with the university of michigan center for local, state, and urban policy (closup) as part of the national surveys on energy and environment (nsee) series. this survey secured responses from 405 new york residents and 411 pennsylvania residents, drawn from all regions of each state and comprising statistically representative profiles of the respective citizens. land lines and cell phones were sampled in both states; the new york sample was made up of 252 land lines and 153 cell phones, and the pennsylvania sample was madeup of 242 land lines and 141 cell phones. the american association of public opinion research (aapor) rr3 response rate for the combined sample was 16%. support for hydraulic fracturing in pennsylvania and new york this study begins with an examination of overall levels of knowledge and support for shale gas extraction in pennsylvania and new york. in contrast to the limited awareness of hydraulic fracturing found among americans in national samples (pew 2012; boudet et al. 2014) results from the two statewide nsee surveys reveals that roughly half of the population in pennsylvania (49%) and new york (44%) are following the issue of hydraulic fracturing in their state either very or somewhat closely. moreover, new yorkers and pennsylvanians also report similar levels of awareness of the process of hydraulic fracturing, with a little over a third of pennsylvanians (37%) and new yorkers (34%) saying that they have heard a lot about the process, and majorities in both states reporting that they have heard at least a little about the process (55% in new york and 52% in pennsylvania). while a plurality (39%) of americans in a nationallevel survey report hearing “nothing at all” about fracking (boudet et al. 2014), the proportion of pennsylvanians and new yorkers reporting similarly low levels of awareness is comparatively smaller (about one in ten). across pennsylvania and new york, familiarity with and attention to the fracking issue are thus relatively high. when these two variables are 56 erick lachapelle standardized on a 0–1 scale and combined into an index (alpha = 0.75), no significant difference across residents of pennsylvania (m = 1.18, sd = 0.55) and new york (m = 1.20, sd = 0.54) in mean levels of awareness (t(805) = 0.60, p = 0.545) is observed. of course, the relatively high level of issue awareness observed in both pennsylvania and new york is to be expected, given that the debate over the relative benefits and risks of “fracking” is likely to be more salient in states that sit atop important shale resources (evensen, clarke and stedman 2014). while pennsylvanians and new yorkers report similar levels of awareness of hydraulic fracturing, they differ considerably in overall views on the extraction of natural gas from shale deposits in their states. results indicate that a slim majority (54%) of pennsylvania residents support shale gas extraction in their state in comparison to only three out of ten (30%) new yorkers who feel the same. however, whether or not individuals live on a shale play appears (at least at first) to make a difference. using data from the u.s. energy information administration shale database, the geological survey of canada, and selfreported postal codes, respondents were located on a map of the marcellus and utica shale plays underlying parts of pennsylvania and new york using arc gis software. individuals living atop the shale play were coded as 1, and those not living on the play were coded as 0. respondents were then plotted on the layered map, and color coded those supporting the use of hydraulic fracturing in their state (white circles), and those in opposition (dark circles). as shown in figure 1, there appear to be more white circles (and thus more support) on the colored portions of the map representing the presence of a shale play. further evidence of this relationship is provided in a bivariate crosstab (table 1). as shown in table 1, there appears to be some relationship between living on a shale play and supporting the use of hydraulic fracturing. indeed, those not living on either the marcellus or utica plays are more likely to oppose, and those living on one of these plays are more likely to support, use of hydraulic fracturing in their state. though clearly visible, this relationship is somewhat weak and barely significant at conventional levels. moreover, the bivariate analysis ignores the potential role of other predictors. to ascertain what shapes attitudes toward hydraulic fracturing in pennsylvania and new york, a logistic regression was estimated to model support for hydraulic fracturing as a function of political, demographic, and geographic factors. figure 2 presents the results of the logistic regression in which the dependent variable identifies all respondents who indicated support for the use of hydraulic fracturing (i.e., “strongly” and “somewhat” support). to facilitate interpretation, the average marginal effects for each predictor are plotted the great divide 57 along with 95% confidence intervals. where these confidence bans do not overlap the zero line, the model suggests the particular relationship (positive or negative) is statistically significant. overall, these estimates represent the expected change in the likelihood of any one respondent indicating support, given a oneunit change in each of the predictor variables. as can be seen, several of the variables included in the model help explain variation in support for hydraulic fracturing at the individual level. consistent with past research (boudet et al. 2014), the data suggest that republicans are more likely than democrats to support hydraulic fracturing in their state, and figure 1. spatial distribution of support for and opposition to hydraulic fracturing in pennsylvania and new york. (eia u.s. shale database; canadian national geographic survey; national survey of energy and the environment.) table 1. support for hydraulic fracturing by residence over shale play not on shale play on shale play (n = 519) (n = 297) oppose (n = 354) 46% 39% support (n = 350) 39% 48% not sure (n = 111) 14% 13% q4: in general, would you say that you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose the extraction of natural gas from shale deposits in new york/pennsylvania? source: national survey of energy and the environment. 2 5.24; 2; 0.073.note: x = df = p = 58 erick lachapelle the likelihood of support increases moving from left to right along the 5point (very) liberal to (very) conservative ideology scale. the level of selfreported awareness, in contrast, offers more limited analytical leverage on predicting support. indeed, in cross-t abulations (not shown here) an increased level of awareness is associated with both heightened support and opposition. in other words, familiarity and awareness do not uniformly increase or decrease support, but can be polarizing, resulting in a net noneffect (since more awareness is found among those who support and oppose fracking, the effects cancel each other out). in terms of demographics, there is no difference between college and noncollegeeducated groups, nor can a significant difference across categories of age be observed. however, the analysis finds that being female, rather than male, significantly decreases the chances of support. what stands out most from figure 2, however, is that being a resident of pennsylvania, as opposed to living in the state of new york, is associated with a higher probability (about 20%) of indicating support for hydraulic fracturing in their state. after controlling for state of residence, the effect of living on the marcellus or utica shale play (examined in table 1) disappears. these results are broadly consistent with previous research that found a similarly robust relationship between state of residence and risk perception associated with fracking, which held even when controlling for awareness of nearby gas wells. that this relationship can be observed in a statewide sample, however, figure 2. marginal effects on the probability of support for hydraulic frac turing. (national survey of energy and the environment.) the great divide 59 provides more direct evidence that public opinion and policy are fairly well aligned in terms of the shale gas issue in pennsylvania and new york. as might be expected in a representative democracy, a more permissive fracking regime in pennsylvania is aligned with broad support in the keystone state, while the ban on such methods in new york is broadly in line with opinions there. but why do such large differences exist across these two adjacent states with similar resources? to what extent might crossborder perceptions be influenced by what’s happening across state lines? cross-border perspectives given the controversy over fracking in pennsylvania and new york, one might expect residents of these two states to also be more aware of similar debates occurring in adjacent states. to explore this possibility, this study examines opinions of shale gas policies and activities across the pennsylvania new york state border. in particular the survey allows for the comparison of how residents in these two states view the fracking activities in neighboring jurisdictions and assess the impact of such activities on life in their own state. respondents in both states were thus asked how aware they believe themselves to be concerning the level of hydraulic fracturing taking place in their neighboring state. response options for this self-r eported item included “very aware,” “somewhat aware,” “not very aware,” and “not aware at all.” relative to residents of pennsylvania, those living in new york generally report being more aware of the level of fracking activity in the neighboring state. in fact, new yorkers are 20% more likely than pennsylvanians to say that they are “very” or “somewhat” aware of the level of hydraulic fracturing taking place across the border (table 2). this level of asymmetric awareness suggests that table 2. selfreported awareness of hydraulic fracturing in neighboring state pennsylvania (n = 411) new york (n = 405) very aware 11% 24% somewhat aware 25% 32% not very aware 20% 14% not aware at all 39% 25% not sure 5% 5% q11: beyond new york/pennsylvania hydraulic fracturing has been a public issue in neighboring states, including new york/pennsylvania. are you very aware, somewhat aware, not very aware, or not aware at all about the level of hydraulic fracturing in new york/pennsylvania? source: national survey of energy and the environment. 60 erick lachapelle table 3. ability to correctly answer factual questions on hydraulic fracturing in neighboring state by selfreported awareness 0 correct responses 1 correct responses 2 correct responses pa (n = 266) ny (n = 138) pa (n = 71) ny (n = 57) pa (n = 74) ny (n = 209) not aware at all 49% 63% 28% 19% 11% 2% not very aware 20% 18% 31% 23% 11% 9% somewhat aware 20% 6% 24% 25% 42% 51% very aware 3% 2% 17% 26% 35% 38% not sure 8% 11% <1% 7% 1% <1% q11: beyond new york/pennsylvania hydraulic fracturing has been a public issue in neighboring states, including new york/pennsylvania. are you very aware, somewhat aware, not very aware, or not aware at all about the level of hydraulic fracturing in new york/pennsylvania? q12: in terms of your perception of hydraulic fracturing in new york/pennsylvania, would you say that there is a high level of hydraulic fracturing, a moderate level of hydraulic fracturing, very little hydraulic fracturing, or no hydraulic fracturing at all? q13: which of the following do you think best describes new york/ pennsylvania policy regarding hydraulic fracturing? ny [pa] allows hydraulic fracturing, ny [pa] does not allow hydraulic fracturing? source: national survey of energy and the environment. note: the number of correct answers is computed from the ability of respondents to correctly answer 2q12 and q13. for pennsylvania: x = 107.76; df = 8; cramer’s v = 0.362 p = 0.000. for new york: 2x  = 246.96; df = 8; cramer’s v = 0.553; p = 0.000. the high-profile debate over fracking in pennsylvania has penetrated deeper into the psyche of new yorkers rather than the other way around. the validity of selfassessed measures of the level of awareness of fracking in neighboring states was tested by examining responses to factual questions. essentially, this involves testing if those reporting they are aware of hydraulic fracturing across the border actually know what is happening. overall, a high correlation between selfassessed awareness and ability to answer two factual questions on actual level of fracking activity and policy can be observed (table 3). respondents were first asked to identify the level of hydraulic fracturing taking place across the border. response options included “a high level,” “a moderate level,” “very little,” and “no” hydraulic fracturing. for the purpose of table 3, new york respondents reporting “high” and “moderate” levels of fracking in pennsylvania were coded as reporting a correct answer, while pennsylvania respondents reporting “very little” or “no” hydraulic fracturing occurring in new york were similarly coded. all others (including “not sure”) the great divide 61 were coded as unable to offer a correct answer. next, respondents were asked to indicate whether they thought their neighboring state allows (or does not allow) hydraulic fracturing. respondents able to correctly identify the permissiveness (or not) of policy in the neighboring jurisdiction were again coded as able to offer a correct answer, while all others were coded as unable to provide an accurate response. table 3 shows that selfassessed levels of awareness map onto actual levels of knowledge about fracking activity and policy across the pennsylvania/new york border. specifically, among pennsylvanians and new yorkers who were unable to offer accurate responses to the two factual questions, a majority in pennsylvania (69%) and in new york (71%) accurately identified themselves as being “not very” or “not aware at all” of fracking activity across the border. similarly, among those who correctly answered the questions, a majority in pennsylvania (77%) and new york (89%) accurately reported being either “somewhat” or “very” aware of the level of hydraulic fracturing in the neighboring state. table 3 also demonstrates, however, that awareness of crossborder fracking policy and activity is much higher in new york relative to pennsylvania. in fact, a majority (52%) of new yorkers in the sample correctly answered the two questions pertaining to fracking activity and policy in pennsylvania, compared to a small minority (18%) of pennsylvanians who correctly answered the same two factual questions about fracking in new york. overall, the data in table 3 highlight a convergence between the self assessed measure of awareness and the ability to accurately identify the level of fracking activity and associated policy in the neighboring state. the data also suggest the level of crossborder awareness in fracking activity between pennsylvanians and new yorkers is asymmetric, with new yorkers generally more able to accurately report on levels of fracking activity across state lines. to what extent might these differential levels of awareness among pennsylvanians and new yorkers about activities occurring across the border drive broader perceptions of fracking? examining responses to questions pertaining to the perceived impact of fracking for the quality of life across the border, this line of questioning is pursued in table 4, which highlights some intriguing differences. while a majority of both pennsylvanians and new yorkers are either not sure or see no effect on their state from the level of hydraulic fracturing across the border, new yorkers are about three times as likely (29% vs. 9%) to say hydraulic fracturing levels in pennsylvania have a negative rather than a positive effect on life in new york, while pennsylvanians are more evenly split (15% negative and 14% positive) on the impact of fracking levels in new york on life in pennsylvania. moreover, new yorkers are about twice 62 erick lachapelle as likely (29% vs. 15%) as pennsylvanians to think that the level of hydraulic fracturing in their neighboring states has a negative effect on quality of life in their state. next, the relationship between individuals’ expressed awareness of hydraulic fracturing across the state border and their views on the impact of the level of shale gas extraction on quality of life in their state is examined. the results outlined in table 5 indicate some differences between pennsylvania table 4. views on the effects of hydraulic fracturing levels in neighboring state on quality of life in respondent’s state new york pennsylvania (n = 411) (n = 405) positive effect 9% 14% negative effect 29% 15% no effect 30% 32% not sure 32% 38% q14: in general do you think that the level of hydraulic fracturing in new york/pennsylvania has a positive effect, a negative effect, or no effect on quality of life in new york/pennsylvania? source: national survey of energy and the environment. 2notes: x = 23.57; df = 3; p = 0.000. table 5. views on effects of fracking for overall quality of life in home state by perceived level of hydraulic fracking in neighboring state high level of moderate very little no fracking in fracking in fracking in fracking in neighboring neighboring neighboring neighboring state state state state not sure pa ny pa ny pa ny pa ny pa ny (n = (n = (n = (n = (n = (n = (n = (n = (n = (n = 10) 120) 60) 112) 52) 17) 71) 8) 218) 146) positive effect 30% 11% 23% 13% 25% 24% 14% 13% 9% 3% negative effect 20% 44% 27% 27% 21% 18% 18% 13% 9% 19% no effect 20% 28% 33% 38% 40% 47% 51% 25% 25% 24% not sure 30% 17% 17% 21% 14% 12% 17% 50% 57% 53% q14: in general do you think that the level of hydraulic fracturing in new york/pennsylvania has a positive effect, a negative effect, or no effect on the quality of life in new york/pennsylvania? source: national survey of energy and the environment. 2 2note: for pennsylvania: x = 84.23; df = 12; p = 0.000. for new york: x = 70.75; df = 12; p = 0.000. the great divide 63 and new york perspectives. among new yorkers who accurately perceive a high level of hydraulic fracturing in pennsylvania, a plurality (44%) think that this activity has a negative impact on quality of life in new york, with only 11% of this group expressing the view that the high levels of hydraulic fracturing have a positive effect on new york. however, among pennsylvanians who accurately perceive new york as having no hydraulic fracturing, most (51%) think that this outcome has no effect on life in their commonwealth, with only (14%) saying that the absence of activity has a positive impact on pennsylvania quality of life and (18%) indicating that no shale gas extraction in new york has a negative effect on life in pennsylvania. these findings are consistent with what might be expected from an attentive public. they also provide some context in which to interpret the difference in levels of support for hydraulic fracturing in pennsylvania and new york. specifically, the perceived negative effect of fracking in pennsylvania for residents of new york might help explain, at least in part, the relatively greater level of opposition to fracking observed in the empire state. the possibility that cross-b order perceptions of hydraulic fracturing activities inf luence perceptions of likely effects for the home state raises novel questions regarding spillover and diffusion. specifically, while policymakers actively look to other jurisdictions to learn from policies elsewhere, to what extent might citizens similarly inform their policy preferences by looking at other jurisdictions? while not offering an explicit test, analysis of questions in this comparative survey finds an interesting relationship between individuals’ support for hydraulic fracturing and their views on the role that fracking policy in their neighboring state should play in their own state. for instance, among pennsylvanians who strongly support hydraulic fracturing in their state, only 9% believe new york’s moratorium policy (at the time) should have a major effect on pennsylvania’s policy in this area. on the other hand, 62% of pennsylvanians who strongly support hydraulic fracturing in the commonwealth believe that new york’s moratorium on fracking should have no effect on pennsylvania policy on this matter. at the other end of the spectrum, a plurality of pennsylvanians (39%) who strongly oppose fracking in their state think that the new york moratorium should have a strong effect on policy in their state. in new york this relationship is somewhat less pronounced. among the new yorkers who strongly support fracking in their state, equal pluralities (of 42%) think the permissive policy in pennsylvania should have a major and no effect on new york policy, respectively. among those new yorkers who strongly oppose fracking in new york, a plurality (39%) maintain the view that pennsylvania’s policies 64 erick lachapelle to allow this form of natural gas extraction should have no effect on new york policy (table 6). conclusion building on previous research, and drawing on comparative surveys, this study provides some new perspective on public attitudes toward hydraulic fracturing in the united states, at the state level. analyzing statewide representative data, it finds that pennsylvanians and new yorkers express similarly high levels of awareness of hydraulic fracturing, especially when compared to results drawn from similar questions asked to national samples. moreover, the results show a fairly aligned relationship between levels of public support for table 6. support for hydraulic fracturing by views on the extent to which hydraulic fracturing policy in neighboring state should influence home state policy policy in neighboring state should have major effect on your state policy policy in neighboring state should have minor effect on your state policy policy in neighboring state should have no effect on your state policy not sure pa (n = 88) ny (n = 97) pa (n = 95) ny (n = 111) pa (n = 162) ny (n = 135) pa (n = 66) ny (n = 61) strongly support hydraulic fracturing in your state 9% 42% 16% 11% 62% 42% 13% 5% somewhat support hydraulic fracturing in your state 26% 29% 24% 33% 39% 26% 11% 12% somewhat oppose hydraulic fracturing in your state 26% 16% 35% 34% 15% 29% 23% 21% strongly oppose hydraulic fracturing in your state 40% 24% 20% 27% 32% 39% 9% 10% not sure 10% 12% 23% 26% 36% 32% 31% 30% q18: should the fact that there is a great deal of hydraulic fracturing in pennsylvania [a moratorium on hydraulic fracturing in new york] have a major effect, minor effect, or no effect on pennsylvania’s decision to allow or not allow hydraulic fracturing in the state? q4: in general, would you say that you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose the extraction of natural gas from shale deposits in new york/pennsylvania? source: national survey of energy and the environment. 2 2note: for pennsylvania: x = 15.74; df = 3; cramer’s v = 0.196 p = 0.001. for new york: x = 53.61; df = 3; cramer’s v = 0.364; p = 0.000. the great divide 65 hydraulic fracturing and new york and pennsylvania policy regarding this matter. most new yorkers remain opposed to hydraulic fracturing with the state moratorium (at the time the survey was conducted) reflecting this broad public opinion. across the 306-m ile state border with new york, a majority of pennsylvanians support the hydraulic fracturing that has been allowed by permissive state regulations. thus some convergence of public opinion and public policy regarding hydraulic fracturing in these marcellus shale play states can be observed. these findings are consistent with what might be expected from representative democracies sitting atop significant shale rock formations. of course this does not imply perfect alignment between public preferences and details of state policy toward shale gas extraction. indeed results from the analysis demonstrate that opinions in new york and pennsylvania are not uniform, with republicans, men and those with a more conservative ideology significantly more likely to support the use of hydraulic fracturing in their home state. moreover, other studies demonstrate that, in some instances, public opinion and specific policies does not align, as is the case for pennsylvanians who are opposed to particular policy approaches adopted by their state, including the lack of a severance tax and limited chemical disclosure rules (rabe and borick 2011; muhlenberg college institute of public opinion 2011). at a general level, though, opinions are broadly consistent with existing policy approaches in both states, with higher support in pennsylvania corresponding with a more permissive policy approach, and greater opposition in new york corresponding to greater restrictions. the results also provide insight into the level of crossborder knowledge and opinions about hydraulic fracturing in new york and pennsylvania. the findings suggest that residents of these states give moderate levels of attention to the levels of hydraulic fracturing activity and policy on the other side of the new york/pennsylvania border. however, this attention to hydraulic fracturing matters in the neighboring state is not equal among residents of the states, with new yorkers significantly more likely than pennsylvanians to know more about shale gas issues in their neighboring state. this asymmetric awareness raises new questions on the role of crossborder perceptions in shaping opinion toward hydraulic fracturing in adjacent states. while policy diffusion is an important topic of study in the literature, the potential spillover from policy debates occurring in adjacent states at the level of public opinion deserves greater inquiry. in particular, this study has not explored the potential mediating role of proximity to the new york/pennsylvania border, which may add more explanatory power and nuance. does proximity to the state border impact both individuals’ knowledge about hydraulic fracturing 66 erick lachapelle levels and policies in the neighboring state, and in turn does that affect their views about shale gas extraction in their own states? what is the relationship between awareness, proximity, and perceptions of risk? future researchers may wish to pursue these questions to better capture the role of crossborder perceptions in shaping public attitudes toward controversial issues like hydraulic fracturing in the united states. note acknowledgments: i thank chris borick for permission to use the nsee data and irena nedeva for helpful research assistance. references barnes, matthew. 2013. “hydrofracking and policymaking in new york municipalities.” paper presented at the 2013 annual meeting of the american political science association. chicago, il, august 29 to september 1, 2013. borick, christopher, and chris clarke. 2016. “american views on fracking.” issues in energy and environmental policy 28 (may): 1–9. boscarino, jessica. 2013. “last line of defense: regulating hydrofracking through the use of home rule.” paper presented at the 2013 annual meeting of the american political science association. chicago, il, august 29 to september 1, 2013. boudet, hilary, christopher clarke, dylan bugden, edward maibach, connie roser renouf, and anthony leiserowitz. 2014. “‘fracking’ controversy and communication: using national survey data to understand public perceptions of hydraulic fracturing.” energy policy 65 (february): 57–67. brasier, kathryn j., diane k. mclaughlin, danielle rhubart, richard c. stedman, matthew r. filteau, and jeffrey jacquet. 2013. “risk perceptions of natural gas development in the marcellus shale.” environmental practice 15 (june): 108–122. brown. erica, kristine hartman, christopher borick, barry g. rabe, and thomas ivacko. 2013. “public opinion on fracking: perspectives from michigan and pennsylvania.” issues in energy and environmental policy 3 (may): 1–26. burstein, paul. 2003. “the impact of public opinion on public policy: a review and an agenda.” political research quarterly 56 (march): 29–40. clarke, christopher e., dylan budgen, p. sol hart, richard c. stedman, jeffrey b. jacquet, darrick t. n. evensen, and hilary s. boudet. 2016. “how geographic distance and political ideology interact to inf luence public perception of unconventional oil/natural gas development.” energy policy 97 (october): 301–309. clarke, christopher e., philip s. hart, jonathon p. schuldt, darrick t. n. evensen, hilary s. boudet, jeffrey b. jacquet, and richard c. stedman. 2015. “public opinion on energy development: the interplay of issue framing, topofmind associations, and political ideology.” energy policy 81 (june): 131–140. climek, michael, lina brou, maxwell means, and kirby goidel. 2014. “fracking and polarization of public opinion.” louisiana state university public policy research lab. available at http://lsureillycenter.com/wpcontent/uploads/20s5/ the great divide 67 12/nationalfrackingreport72413public-p olicyresearchlabatlsu.pdf. accessed august 12, 2016. coin, glenn. 2015. “new york state officially bans fracking.” syracuse.com, june 29. available at www.syracuse.com/news/index.ssf/2015/06/new_york_officially_ bans_hydrofracking.html. accessed october 20, 2016. department of environmental conservation (dec). 2015. “final supplemental generic environmental impact statement on the oil, gas and solution mining regulatory program: findings statement,” new york. available at www.dec .ny.gov/energy/75370.html. accessed october 3, 2016. eaton, timothy t. 2013. “sciencebased decisionmaking on complex issues: marcellus shale gas hydrofracking and new york city water supply.” science of the total environment 461/462 (september): 158–169. evensen darrick t., christopher e. clarke, and richard c. stedman. 2013. “a new york or pennsylvania state of mind: social representations of gas development in the marcellus shale.” journal of environmental studies and sciences 4 (march): 65–77. glick, david, and zoe friedland. 2014. “how often do states study each other? evidence of policy knowledge diffusion.” american politics research 42 (november): 956–985. gray, virginia. 1973. “innovation in the states: a diffusion study.” american political science review 67 (december): 1174–1185. harper, john a. 2008. “the marcellus shale—an old ‘new’ gas reserve in pennsylvania.” pennsylvania geology 38 (spring): 2–13. jacquet, jeffrey b. 2012. “landowner attitudes toward natural gas and wind farm development in northern pennsylvania.” energy policy 50 (november): 677–688. johnson, martin, paul brace, and kevin arceneaux. 2005. “public opinion and dynamic representation in the american states: the case of environmental attitudes.” social science quarterly 86 (march): 87–108. kriesky, jill, bernard goldstein, katrina zell, and scott beach. 2013. “differing opinions about natural gas drilling in two adjacent counties with different levels of drilling activity. energy policy 58 (july): 228–236. lachapelle, erick, and eric montpetit. 2014. “public opinion on hydraulic fracturing in the province of quebec: a comparison with michigan and pennsylvania.” issues in energy and environmental policy 17 (october): 1–21. mintrom, michael. 1997. “policy entrepreneurs and the diffusion of innovation.” american journal of political science 41 (july): 738–770. mooney, christopher z. 2001. modeling regional effects on state policy diffusion. political research quarterly 54 (march): 103–124. muhlenberg college institute of public opinion. 2011. “pennsylvania marcellus shale survey.” available at www.muhlenberg.edu/main/aboutus/polling/surveys/ pennsylvania/public_policy.html. accessed august 18, 2016. pacheco, julianna. 2013. “the thermostatic model of responsiveness in the american states.” state politics and policy quarterly 13 (september): 306–332. pew research center for the people and the press. 2012. “more opposition to increased use of fracking.” available at www.peoplepress.org/2013/09/26/ continued-support-for-keystone-xl-pipeline/9-26-13-7/. accessed august 18, 2016. 68 erick lachapelle ———. 2015. “how americans view the top energy and environmental issues.” available at www.pewresearch.org/key-data-points/environment-energy-2/. accessed august 18, 2016. rabe, barry g. 2014. “shale play politics: the intergovernmental odyssey of american shale governance.” environmental science and technology 48 (15): 8369–8375. rabe, barry g., and christopher borick. 2011. “fracking for natural gas: public opinion on state policy options.” ann arbor, mi: center for local, state, and urban policy, gerald r. ford school of public policy, university of michigan. ———. 2012. “pennsylvania’s fracking case: state and local governance challenges.” brookings: upfront, december. available at www.brookings.edu/blogs/upfront/ posts/2013/12/24pennsylvaniafrackingstatelocal-g overnancechallenges. ———. 2013. “conventional politics for unconventional drilling? lessons from pennsylvania’s early move into fracking policy development.” review of policy research 30 (may): 321–340. doi: 10.1111/ropr.12018. schneider, sandra, william g. jacoby, and daniel c. lewis. 2011. “public opinion toward intergovernmental policy responsibilities.” publius: the journal of federalism 41 (winter): 1–30. sovacool, benjamin k. 2014. “cornucopia or curse? reviewing the costs and benefits of shale gas hydraulic fracturing (fracking).” renewable and sustainable energy reviews 37 (september): 249–264. stedman, richard c., jeffrey b. jacquet, matthew r. filteau, fern k. willits, kathryn j. brasier, and diane k. mclaughlin. 2012. “marcellus shale gas development and new boomtown research: views of new york and pennsylvania residents.” journal of environmental practice 14 (december): 287–298. u.s. energy information administration. 2012. annual energy outlook 2012. available at www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/0383(2012).pdf. accessed august 20, 2016. ———. 2014. “natural gas gross withdrawals and production.” u.s. energy information administration, 2014. available at www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_prod_sum_ dcu_smi_m.htm. accessed august 20, 2016. walker, jack l. 1969. “the diffusion of innovations among the american states.” american political science review 67 (september): 1174–1185. warner, barbara, and jennifer shapiro. 2013. “fractured, fragmented federalism: a study in fracking regulatory policy.” publius: the journal of federalism 43 (summer): 474–496. wright, gerald c., robert s. erikson, and john p. mciver. 1993. statehouse democracy: public opinion, politics and policy in the american states. new york: cambridge university press. erick lachapelle, phd, is an associate professor of political science at the university of montreal where he teaches courses on comparative environmental politics, research methods, and public policy. he is the lead researcher behind the canadian surveys on energy and the environment. erick ’s research examines the comparative politics of climate change, environmental public opinion, and political communication around climate policy and the transition toward a clean economy. erick’s research has appeared in such venues as policy sciences, policy studies journal, energy policy, climate policy, and global environmental politics, among others. structure bookmarks hydraulic fracturing: the pennsylvania and new york context research questions and literature review data and methods cross-border perspectives conclusion commonwealth: a journal of pennsylvania politics and policy backmatter library recommendation form to: librarian/library acquisition committee from:_______________________________________________________________________________ position: ______________________________ department: ___________________________________ e-mail:_________________________________ phone: ________________________________________ i recommend that our library subscribe to the following journal: commonwealth: a journal of pennsylvania politics and policy published by temple university press on behalf of the pennsylvania political science association editor: j. wesley leckrone, widener university published online three times a year issn 2469-7672 https://tupjournals.temple.edu/index.php/commonwealth/index i recommend a subscription to commonwealth for the following reasons: r personal reference: i am a contributor to this publication and therefore require access to the research published in this journal. i will regularly recommend articles to my colleagues/students. r research: i require access to this publication to support my research and keep up-to-date with developments in the field. r student use: i plan to browse the contents of new issues regularly to add to my students’ reading lists and refer to this publication as a study tool. r benefit for library: this publication will benefit the library's collection development and strengthen our research output in this field. r other: ______________________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________________________________________________ commonwealth can be ordered through your subscription agent or online by going to https://tupjournals.temple.edu/index.php/commonwealth/about/subscriptions and clicking on the appropriate option. www.temple.edu/tempress tempress@temple.edu guidelines for submitting manuscripts commonwealth is a peerreviewed journal founded by the pennsylvania political science association in 1987. initially named commonwealth: a journal of political science, in 2016 the publication was retitled commonwealth: a journal of pennsylvania politics and policy. all ppsa members are entitled to access to commonwealth through temple university press’s website at https://tupjournals.temple.edu/index.php/commonwealth/index. commonwealth is seeking manuscripts across a broad range of topics related to the politics, policy, and political history of pennsylvania. the journal is interdisciplinary in nature, appealing to scholars and practitioners in fields such as political science, public administration, public policy, and history. commonwealth’s editorial staff, editorial review board, and referees maintain the highest standards of peer review and publication. we’re looking for the following types of content for commonwealth: ■ general articles on pennsylvania state and local government ■ multistate comparative analyses featuring pennsylvania or its regions ■ impacts of federal policies on the commonwealth ■ analyses of specific public policy issues ■ public administration and implementation politics in pennsylvania ■ pennsylvania political history ■ public law and the courts in the commonwealth ■ pennsylvania campaigns, elections, and public opinion ■ international relations with clear consequences for pennsylvania and its regions manuscripts should be submitted via email in microsoft word format. the preferred length is 15–30 doublespaced pages, including notes, references, tables, and appendices. format should follow the american political science association’s style manual for political science. for guidance, authors should consult previous issues of commonwealth, the american political science review, or the editor. additional information about submissions may be found on the temple university press website at https://tupjournals.temple.edu/index.php/commonwealth/index. manuscripts should be submitted as email attachments (no paper copies) to: dr. j. wesley leckrone department of political science widener university chester, pa 19013 phone: 610–499–4633 e-mail: jwleckrone@widener.edu https://tupjournals.temple.edu/index.php/commonwealth/index%7bcomp https://tupjournals.temple.edu/index.php/commonwealth/index.%7bcomp mailto:jwleckrone@widener.edu%7bcomp book reviews commonwealth will consider proposals for reviews of texts that examine politics and policy in pennsylvania. the books’ primary focus should be on the commonwealth, its regions, or local politics in the state. we also welcome proposals about books that place pennsylvania in a comparative context with other states in the region or country. reviews should not be undertaken until the book review editor has accepted a proposal. submit proposals and brief curriculum vitae to: dr. tom baldino department of political science wilkes university wilkesbarre, pa 18766 phone: 570–408–4474 e-mail: thomas.baldino@wilkes.edu mailto:thomas.baldino@wilkes.edu%7bcomp commonwealth: a journal of pennsylvania politics and policy backmatter library recommendation form to: librarian/library acquisition committee from:_______________________________________________________________________________ position: ______________________________ department: ___________________________________ e-mail:_________________________________ phone: ________________________________________ i recommend that our library subscribe to the following journal: commonwealth: a journal of pennsylvania politics and policy published by temple university press on behalf of the pennsylvania political science association editor: j. wesley leckrone, widener university published online three times a year issn 2469-7672 https://tupjournals.temple.edu/index.php/commonwealth/index i recommend a subscription to commonwealth for the following reasons: r personal reference: i am a contributor to this publication and therefore require access to the research published in this journal. i will regularly recommend articles to my colleagues/students. r research: i require access to this publication to support my research and keep up-to-date with developments in the field. r student use: i plan to browse the contents of new issues regularly to add to my students’ reading lists and refer to this publication as a study tool. r benefit for library: this publication will benefit the library's collection development and strengthen our research output in this field. r other: ______________________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________________________________________________ commonwealth can be ordered through your subscription agent or online by going to https://tupjournals.temple.edu/index.php/commonwealth/about/subscriptions and clicking on the appropriate option. www.temple.edu/tempress tempress@temple.edu guidelines for submitting manuscripts commonwealth is a peerr eviewed journal founded by the pennsylvania political science association in 1987. initially named commonwealth: a journal of political science, in 2016 the publication was retitled commonwealth: a journal of pennsylvania politics and policy. all ppsa members are entitled to access to commonwealth through temple university press’s website at https://tupjournals.temple.edu/index.php/commonwealth/index. commonwealth is seeking manuscripts across a broad range of topics related to the politics, policy, and political history of pennsylvania. the journal is interdisciplinary in nature, appealing to scholars and practitioners in fields such as political science, public administration, public policy, and history. commonwealth’s editorial staff, editorial review board, and referees maintain the highest standards of peer review and publication. we’re looking for the following types of content for commonwealth: ■ general articles on pennsylvania state and local government ■ multistate comparative analyses featuring pennsylvania or its regions ■ impacts of federal policies on the commonwealth ■ analyses of specific public policy issues ■ public administration and implementation politics in pennsylvania ■ pennsylvania political history ■ public law and the courts in the commonwealth ■ pennsylvania campaigns, elections, and public opinion ■ international relations with clear consequences for pennsylvania and its regions manuscripts should be submitted via em ail in microsoft word format. the preferred length is 15–30 doubles paced pages, including notes, references, tables, and appendices. format should follow the american political science association’s style manual for political science. for guidance, authors should consult previous issues of commonwealth, the american political science review, or the editor. additional information about submissions may be found on the temple university press website at https://tupjournals.temple.edu/index.php/commonwealth/index. manuscripts should be submitted as e mail attachments (no paper copies) to: dr. j. wesley leckrone department of political science widener university chester, pa 19013 phone: 610-499-4633 e mail: jwleckrone@widener.edu https://tupjournals.temple.edu/index.php/commonwealth/index https://tupjournals.temple.edu/index.php/commonwealth/index mailto:jwleckrone@widener.edu%7bcomp book reviews commonwealth will consider proposals for reviews of texts that examine politics and policy in pennsylvania. the books’ primary focus should be on the commonwealth, its regions, or local politics in the state. we also welcome proposals about books that place pennsylvania in a comparative context with other states in the region or country. reviews should not be undertaken until the book review editor has accepted a proposal. submit proposals and brief curriculum vitae to: dr. tom baldino department of political science wilkes university wilkes barre, pa 18766 phone: 5704084474 e mail: thomas.baldino@wilkes.edu mailto:thomas.baldino@wilkes.edu%7bcomp commonwealth: a journal of political science  volume 15, number 1  may 2009 policy issue on emergency management  2009 ppsa/lorl, pa house of reps. issn 0890-2410 residency requirements for first responders karen finkenbinder, phd candidate penn state harrisburg introduction disaster planning raises many issues. one of the most important is that of evacuation planning. the response to hurricane katrina allowed us to see what happens when plans are not viable or not executed as expected. as a part of evacuation planning, the issue of residency requirements for first responders has come to the forefront of emergency response debates. in 2005, pennsylvania senators orie, scarnati, wozniak, and several others introduced senate bill 438 which stated, “no municipality may require its law enforcement officers to be residents of the municipality in order to serve in the capacity of law enforcement officer.”1 this particular bill only dealt with police officers and was not prompted by emergency response concerns. the bill was tabled, never becoming a law. residency requirements are “rules or regulations promulgated by city council ordinance, charter provision, or administrative rule that state that local public employees must live within the boundaries of a municipality.”2 in recent months, administrators and policymakers have been questioning such requirements for several reasons:  the perception that such requirements narrow the applicant pool to a point that there is increasing incompetence in the ranks;  quality-of-life issues such as schools, crime, and affordable housing.  they inhibit an employee’s opportunities to be promoted; and  recent disasters have reinforced the image that there is danger to first-responders and their families that may preclude first responders from helping others.3, 4 62 residency requirements for first responders in addition to questioning the wisdom of residency requirements, others are asking questions about federalism – are residency requirements local, state or federal issues? holistic disaster planning requires us to look at many issues and perhaps determine that residency should be addressed in evacuation plans.5 disaster planning the national response plan (2004) specifically addressed the issue of worker safety for emergency responders.6 at the time of publication, the nation was still recovering from heavy losses suffered on september 11, 2001, by the new york fire department, new york police department, and new york transit authority. subsequent guidance issued by the federal emergency management agency (fema) and pennsylvania emergency management agency (pema) encourage municipalities to “pre-plan to the greatest extend possible” for firstresponder safety.7 similarly, literature published in academic and practitioner journals have supported pre-planning and minimizing risks to first-responders.8 it was not until after hurricane katrina that the interplay of “worker safety” and “residency requirements” was noted; however, the large geographical area involved in the disaster seems to demonstrate that even those living outside new orleans were vulnerable. it does not seem that an emergency responder living in the suburbs of new orleans fared much better than one in the city. the bipartisan senate report observed that there was no planned evacuation for “essential personnel and non-essential personnel” and that “many first-responders used their own initiative and left to take care of their families.”9 as police officers were required to live in new orleans, many of them lost their homes, equipment, and uniforms in the flooding; thus, those that did arrive for duty often were without ballistic vests, gloves, and waterproof clothing suitable for wading through contaminated waters. the senate report noted that because of the residency requirements for police officers, they were personally affected by the hurricane. the white house report stated that over 70% of new orleans officers were victims.10 a later debate on the department of homeland security’s “lessons learned” website addressed the issue of residency requirements for new orleans and concluded that we need to karen finkenbinder 63 “re-look at residency requirements.”11 this website is available to all local, state, and federal employees and is a clearinghouse to share ideas in the homeland security arena. another area of disaster planning that has been discussed is the possibility of emergency responders following the example of the armed forces and creating “family care plans.” these plans provide information such as where the family goes if the military member is sent away or the member’s duty assignment becomes uninhabitable (such as in sensitive overseas assignments). a similar concept might be developed for first responders. the process of creating such plans forces the employee and family to consider their options. further, agencies often require first-responders to have a packed emergency bag that may include three days of food (often military-style rations), water, and toiletries. police officers in particular observe that their “toolkit” has grown exponentially from the days of a pair of handcuffs and a revolver – perhaps it may be time to assume that every first-responder has a “grab and go kit” that allows him to be selfsufficient for 48-72 hours. background it is helpful to know something about the history of residency requirements to better understand the arguments for and against them. as with many other remaining vestiges of bygone days, there is a reason why many cities created them and in some cases still have residency ordinances. there is no clearly defined beginning of residency requirements.12, 13 the most commonly accepted origin of residency requirements in the united states seems to be that they derived from the spoils system prevalent in large american cities during the mid-1800s. in cities such as chicago and boston, the local ward bosses hired public employees, particularly police officers and firefighters. this practice ensured the ward bosses’ continued reelection by employees whose jobs were directly tied to the ward bosses. but it also provided a service to assist the ward bosses in collecting bribes and protection money. by the twentieth century, reformers had identified machine politics and residency requirements as being primary causes of corruption and they issued a call for hiring the “best qualified men regardless of where they lived.”14 some municipalities did heed the call (at least partially) 64 residency requirements for first responders and required employees to live within a certain distance from the jurisdiction. after world war ii, most large cities saw much of their populations move to the suburbs. as a result, many municipalities began to require their employees to live within the jurisdictional boundaries of their municipality. this was intended to keep employees’ expenditures of their personal incomes within the municipality as well as ensuring that emergency personnel were available in a timely manner.15 by the late 1960s, a few large cities still had residency requirements but most others did not. this was made possible through improved transportation and the growth of suburbs. this trend reversed when cities reinstated residency requirements to halt “middle-class flight” to the suburbs.16 proponents of residency requirements highlight such success in “protecting the public coffer and providing more employment to city residents.”17 with the advent of community policing, a model of policing that encourages police officers to know their communities, proponents have noted that residents have a greater interest in quality of life issues and that officers living in communities help to suppress crime.18 others have observed that residency requirements provide a more equitable balance of race and ethnicity within a community. finally, some research has proposed that officers with longer commutes to work experience more stress and such commutes have negative impacts on the environment and infrastructure. opponents to residency requirements are equally convinced that their worth is questionable. an analysis of the miami-dade police department concluded that residency requirements (often invoked to increase the number of minority employees) so narrowed the applicant pool that they were a factor in increasing the incompetence of the force.19 an examination of consent decrees that impose race-conscious hiring found that such practices encourage lowering qualifying standards to permit hiring of recruits with less education and more criminal and financial problems.20 employees often oppose such requirements for quality-of-life reasons. in recent years, more have been vocal in their need to place families in safe, affordable neighborhoods that can accommodate disabled family members. unions often oppose residency requirements because they inhibit an employee’s ability to be promoted. police and fire departments are normally hierarchical organizations with relatively little opportunity for advancement unless an officer or firefighter is karen finkenbinder 65 willing to move to another department or agency. they may not be free to do so if residency is required.21 police unions have noted that their officers are at risk “simply because they are police officers harassed, their children ridiculed and intimidated, along with their cars and homes being vandalized.”22 police officers are sometimes victimized by virtue of their position; however, it is unclear if a residency requirement makes a difference – criminals are mobile and can travel outside a political jurisdiction. the “pros” and “cons” of residency are summarized in the following table: table 1: residency requirements pro con  halts “middle-class” flight  protects public coffers  provides employment for residents  creates equitable balance of race/ethnicity in public jobs  longer commute times have negative consequences on employee and infrastructure  narrows applicant pool  lowers qualification standards  quality of life issues (housing, crime, schools)  inhibits promotions  employees and their families in harms way if disaster strikes  police cite safety issue of living among those they arrest today a recent u.s. department of justice survey found that the “number of police agencies that require residency has significantly decreased.”23 some, such as those in ohio and rhode island, have had little choice as the states have stepped in and passed legislation prohibiting residency requirements. further, cities such as austin, texas, that have considered residency requirements discovered they are prohibited.24 even when residency requirements are prohibited because of state or municipal codes, some cities have attempted to get around it by giving promotion to officers who reside in the jurisdiction. 66 residency requirements for first responders new orleans had been discussing residency requirements before hurricane katrina devastated the city. in 2005, many black business, civil rights, and religious leaders formed a coalition to oppose suspending residency requirements for the police department. they observed that doing so “will increase the number of white officers and lead to racial problems.” 25 mayor nagin countered that “more than 70% of the city’s residents support lifting them to give the police chief what he needs.”26 in december 2005, the new orleans city council suspended the residency requirements to help officers who needed to find a place to live and were not going to be successful in finding it in new orleans because of hurricane katrina damage.27 lastly, many police agencies are experiencing a personnel crisis as they struggle to find replacements for many police officers that are members of the national guard or reserves and have been called up for extended military service. some agencies have relaxed hiring standards in areas such as criminal history, physical fitness, and college degrees. this concerns criminal justice educators who fear that the move toward professionalizing public safety is regressing. the types of residency are generally broken down into three categories and are summarized in the following table. table 2: types of residency none response residency physical residency no restrictions – employee lives where he or she chooses employee must live within a certain commuting time or distance from jurisdiction – may be distance from employee’s home to jurisdictional border, work location, or center of municipality employees must live within jurisdictional area pennsylvania pennsylvania has more local governments than any state except illinois.28 with over 2,600 municipalities, there are 1,114 police departments, 2,062 fire departments, and almost 90,000 emergency medical services practitioners (emergency medical technicians and karen finkenbinder 67 paramedics assigned within 16 regions). all pennsylvania cities, boroughs, and townships outside of rural areas provide police services and fire services. though cities most commonly have paid firefighters, many boroughs have a mixture of paid and volunteer. thirty percent of rural municipalities provide police services (their own, contracted, or regional).29 those that do not provide police services rely on the pennsylvania state police for coverage. all municipalities have at least one fire company and associated emt response unit responsible for its citizens though it is increasingly becoming difficult to staff volunteer fire departments.30 residency is a local issue in pennsylvania and is often decided through collective bargaining. it is most common in policing – less common in fire services because of their dependence on volunteers and almost non-existent in ems. it is more common in larger municipalities such as philadelphia where a residency requirement exists for all city employees. physical residency, in which an employee must live within their jurisdiction, is not a common practice in most areas except for agency leaders (chief of police, fire chief) and only for paid positions. it is more common to find response residency in which municipalities require officers to respond within a certain time frame or live within a certain distance from the jurisdiction. state and local fire officials were unaware of any such requirements except for the largest cities because of the severe volunteer shortage.31 legal issues residency rules have been the subject of considerable litigation. nationwide, there have been many challenges to residency requirements for all public employees (including school teachers) but overwhelmingly the courts have reiterated that these are collective bargaining or local government issues short of any state legislation stating otherwise.32, 33 the two most frequent areas of constitutional litigation have been in the areas of right to travel and right to equal protection under the law. the right to travel issue was pretty much settled in the 1970s when the u.s. supreme court upheld the city of philadelphia’s residency requirement for firefighters. in mccarthy v philadelphia civil service commission, 424 u.s. 645 (1976), the court ruled that the firefighter did not have a 68 residency requirements for first responders “constitutional right to be employed by the city of philadelphia while he is living elsewhere.”34 likewise, when considering the right to equal protection under the law claim, the state courts addressed the issue in the 1970s. a recent series of cases in the 1990s brought it to the attention of the federal courts. generally, the courts have upheld reasonable residency ordinances for police officers and firefighters because it is rational to have a policy that allows such employees to respond more quickly to emergency calls. what is still in dispute is whether or not disabled employees can be forced to live within a jurisdiction if they need services located outside the city.35 the only connection to emergency responders may be for those who have disabled family members. in pennsylvania, the only lawsuit addressing residency requirements is the case of three former scranton police officers who were fired after challenging the city’s residency requirement in 1997. the 3rd u.s. circuit court of appeals ruled that there was sufficient evidence of retaliation for the officers to pursue their legal claim.36 in this case, the real issue is not residency but retaliation. pittsburgh is the only city in pennsylvania in which a state law was passed years ago prohibiting the police union from even bringing up the residency rule when it negotiates a new contract for city officers. officers in other towns are allowed to discuss eliminating the requirement.37 union challenges to residency within the bargaining process are murkier. arbitrators have issued varied rulings depending on the facts of each case. legislation that has been enacted by states to eliminate residency for police or firefighters has thus far generally been upheld.38 ohio and rhode island have passed such legislation forbidding local residency requirements. opponents to residency requirements often tout that such requirements force the hiring of less-qualified applicants (particularly those with criminal records). several cities are under u.s. department of justice consent decrees because officers were hired with expedited and cursory background checks. 39 these types of issues raise the real possibility of “negligent hiring” of police officers and other first-responders. first-responders have a great deal of autonomy and are working in rapidly-evolving, tense situations – without much, if any, direct supervision. karen finkenbinder 69 federalism the framers of the u.s. constitution created jurisdictional arrangements as a way to prevent the tyranny of a strong, central government. police powers were given to the state so that “states have the power to regulate health, safety, welfare, and morals of its citizens.”40 local governments have no status in the u.s. constitution – they are creations and conveniences of the states. traditionally they have adapted state laws to local conditions, taken care of public works, licensed public accommodations, and provided basic public services. issues such as residency requirements traditionally have rested with local authorities and this is the status-quo. allowing local governments to make such decisions brings the decision-making closer to the affected residents and it allows for collective bargaining. nevertheless, it makes it difficult to create disaster plans because of the inconsistencies throughout the state. many opponents of residency couch it in constitutional terms and constitutional issues may be better addressed by the state. conversely, the state can “legislate” the issue of residency by requiring or prohibiting it. similarly, it can recommend a course of action and tie it to funding or provide education and information to local governments. a consistent state policy helps in creating disaster plans. nevertheless, local governments generally dislike the state moving into areas they feel are local issues and it may be difficult to account for very real local differences. furthermore, the state might change a policy that works. the federal government can also “legislate” residency in a couple of ways. they might tie disaster preparedness funds or homeland security funds to a particular residency policy. or they can provide education and information to state and local governments. of course this ensures consistent disaster planning, but the states will see federal action as federal encroachment into a state issue. lastly, this too may have unintended consequences by changing policies that work. conclusion police residency in pennsylvania is a local issue and thus inconsistent throughout the commonwealth. senate bill 438 introduced in 2005 was tabled. residency mostly affects police officers and some 70 residency requirements for first responders paid firefighters. it has vociferous opponents and proponents. it does not seem that it is an “all or nothing” proposition. disaster planners look at issues that may impact community readiness. hurricane katrina was an exceptional event. it may not be necessary to change current policies because of hurricane katrina; however, it should be noted that pennsylvania is one of the most flood-prone states in the united states and has had its own share of disasters. pennsylvania also has more commercial truck traffic (much of it carrying hazardous materials) than any state in the eastern united states. it also has a large amount of rail traffic that is equally vulnerable to disasters. it is not inconceivable that pennsylvania can have a disaster (man-made or natural) in which residency of first responders might be relevant. one of the most important considerations of disaster planning is the ability of first responders to adequately respond. policymakers desiring to have rational, well-thought out disaster plans need to look at the issues surrounding such response. first-responder residency clearly fits into this area. one of the lessons noted after hurricane katrina dealt with the failure of policymakers and emergency management practitioners to inculcate the recommendations made after training exercises and previous disasters. they failed to make important decisions necessary to safeguard the residents of new orleans and surrounding communities. pennsylvania should not make the same mistake. to quote former british prime minister john major, “the politician who never made a mistake, never made a decision.”41 conversely, failing to make a decision may clearly turn out to be a larger mistake. policymakers can create policy to promote residency or forbid it. this may be done at all levels of government. but there may be unintended consequences to any decision. one can only make a decision based upon the known advantages and disadvantages. these are summarized in table 3, on the following page. hurricane katrina taught us that we suffer predictable consequences when we fail to use existing information and be decisive in creating and executing our emergency plans. it is prudent for us to use the lessons learned to make decisions in creating our current emergency response policies. karen finkenbinder 71 table 3: levels of government: disadvantages and advantages of deciding the issue at each level local issue advantages:  status quo  decision-making closer to residents  collective-bargaining possible disadvantages:  inconsistent throughout state which makes it difficult to create disaster plans  constitutional issues may be better addressed by the state state issue advantages:  can legislate the issue state-wide  can recommend a course of action and tie it to funding  can provide education and information to local governments  a consistent state policy helps in creating disaster plans disadvantages:  locals usually dislike the state moving in to areas they feel are local issues  difficult to account for very real local differences  may be changing a policy that works federal issue advantages:  ensures consistent disaster planning  can tie to disaster preparedness and/or homeland security funding  can provide education and information to state and local governments disadvantages:  states will see as federal encroachment into a state issue  may have unintended consequences by changing policies that work notes 1an act providing for law enforcement residency requirements, 2005, pennsylvania senate bill 438 p.n. 461, http://www.legis.state.pa.us/cfdocs/legis/pn/public/bt check.cfm 2johnson, j.h. & zeigler, d.j. (1983). distinguishing human responses to radiological emergencies. economic geography 59 (4), 386-401. http://www.legis.state.pa.us/cfdocs/legis/pn/public/bt check.cfm http://www.legis.state.pa.us/cfdocs/legis/pn/public/bt check.cfm 72 residency requirements for first responders 3department of homeland security (2006). lessons learned from information sharing. retrieved may 14, 2006. 4senate committee on homeland security and governmental affairs, u.s.s. (2006). hurricane katrina: a nation still unprepared. washington, dc: united states senate. 5rand (2004). safeguarding emergency responders during major disasters and terrorist attack: the need for an integrated approach (research brief). santa monica, ca: rand. 6department of homeland security (2004). national response plan. (dhs publication). washington, dc. 7pennsylvania emergency management agency (2005). national response plan, retrieved april 16, 2006. 8green, l. and p. kolesar (2004). improving emergency responsiveness with management science. management science 50 (8), 1001-1014. 9senate committee on homeland security and governmental affairs, u.s.s. (2006). ibid. 10the white house (2006). the federal response to hurricane katrina: lessons learned. washington, dc. 11department of homeland security (2006). lessons learned information sharing. retrieved may 14, 2006. 12schall, d.j. (1996). an investigation into the relationship between municipal police residency requirements, professionalism, economic conditions and employment goals. 13johnson, b.r., g.l. warchol & v.w. bumphus (1997). policy residential requirements: an exploratory analysis. journal of collective negotiation 28 (1) 43-64. 14johnson, b.r. et al., ibid. 15governing magazine (1995). after 200 years, city residency laws still controversial policies often reactivated at times of fiscal crises, urban flight as reprinted in the st. louis dispatch, st. louis, mo, 16 july 1995. 16white, a.g. (1978). municipal employees residency requirements – a problem of public administration: a selected biography. vance bibliographies public administration series: bibliography p179. 17johnson, b.r. et al., ibid. 18(2006, august 28). the austin statesman, p. h2. 19lott, j.r. (2000). does a helping hand put others at risk? affirmative action, police departments and crimes. economic inquiry, april 2000. 20lott, j.r. ibid. 21crowley, c (2005). residency requirements repealed. the providence journal. p c05. 22lutz, michael (2007) president’s message: the issue of residency for police officers” published in fop letter – accessed on 1/18/2007. karen finkenbinder 73 23taylor, b., b. kabu, l. fridell, c. reese, t. jordan & j. cheney (2005). the cop crunch: identifying strategies for dealing with recruiting and hiring in law enforcement. washington, dc: police executive research forum. 24(2006, august 28). the austin statesmen. ibid. 25kropko, m.r. (2006, may 1). cities challenge new residency law on constitutional grounds. associated press. 26grace, s. (2005, may 15). nagin ducks residency requirement. times-picayune (new orleans), p 7. 27grace, s., ibid. 28the center for rural pennsylvania (2003). fact sheet: trends in rural pennsylvania: local government capacity. harrisburg, pa. 29the center for rural pennsylvania (2006). fact sheet: survey of small-town police departments. harrisburg, pa. 30the center for rural pennsylvania (2006). volunteer firefighter recruitment and retention in rural pennsylvania, harrisburg pa. 31fensler, d. (personal communication, november 30, 2006). 32pennsylvania bar institute (2004). what every municipal solicitor should know about labor and employment law. mechanicsburg, pa. 33national public employer labor relations association (january 1, 2007). accessed on-line. 34npelra, 2007, ibid. 35mcdonald v. menino, 1997 wl 106995 (d. mass. january 3, 1997). 36dale, m. (2005, june 14). fired scranton officers can sue the city. philadelphia inquirer. 37barnes, t. (2003, may 3). third time is a charm: police may lose residency requirement. pittsburgh post gazette. 38npelra, 2007, ibid. 39johnson, b., et al. (1997) ibid. 40lowi, t., b. ginsberg & k. shepsle (2004). american government: power and purpose, eighth edition. new york: w.w. norton & company. 41major, john (1990, november 25). bbc radio 4 (uk), “world this weekend.” sometimes it does matter commonwealth, volume 18, issue 2 (2016). © 2016 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/cjppp.v18i2.118. all rights reserved. sometimes it does matter the 2016 presidential primary election in pennsylvania john j. kennedy west chester university since the first presidential primary was held in pennsylvania in the spring of 1912, rarely has the state truly impacted the race. a combination of forces, notably the rather late date that it has traditionally been scheduled relative to other states has all but guaranteed that the presumptive nominees of the democratic and republican parties have long ago been selected. as long as this remains the case, it’s difficult to imagine the state’s voters ever being able to winnow a field of candidates, no matter how large or small it is. however, on rare occasions, the lateness of the pennsylvania’s primary election allows the state’s voters to be one, if not the deciding force on who lays final claim to the nomination. such was the case on april 24, 2016, when pennsylvanians essentially settled the contest on both sides, elevating hillary clinton and donald trump toward their ultimate nominations. ennsylvania’s position in the presidential selection process has been a source of consternation for many observers for decades, and why shouldn’t it be? the nation’s fifth largest state, one that is still considered a battleground politically, has been forced to the sidelines while primaries and caucuses in iowa, new hampshire, and south carolina’s grab most of the attention, not to mention the financial benefits accorded to states that hold their primaries early in the season. in recent years, this situation has p sometimes it does matter 47 become more pronounced as an increasing number of states have moved their presidential primaries or caucuses to an earlier date on the election calendar, a situation referred to as frontloading (brewer and maisel 2016). in fact, by 2008, this process had accelerated to the extent that half the states held their contests prior to february 5, supplanting the old super tuesday in early march (flanigan and zingale 2014). however, while there are times that these early states may effectively winnow the field, they have nevertheless failed to produce a decisive victor. that task is then left to the states that follow in the election calendar, one of which is pennsylvania. such was the case in 2016, when pennsylvania assumed a greater role in the candidate selection process for the two major parties than ever in the history of presidential primary elections. heading into the april 26 showdown, both of the democratic and republican party frontrunners, former secretary of state hillary clinton and businessman donald trump, were coming off resounding victories the previous week in the new york primary. this appeared to have reversed the losses each had suffered the previous weeks, with vermont senator bernie sanders winning seven straight primaries or caucuses and texas senator ted cruz trouncing trump in the wisconsin primary. however, questions remained for both since the empire state was the adopted home for clinton and the life-l ong home for trump, whose profile in that state looms so large that one of new york city’s most famous buildings, trump tower, just happens to be named in his honor. campaigning without the home field advantage, all four of these campaigns, along with that of ohio governor john kasich, who was still competing on the gop side, descended on pennsylvania. although there were four other primaries held on april 26, connecticut, delaware, maryland, and rhode island, the keystone state was unquestionably the biggest prize. dubbed the “acela primary” because these five states are linked by amtrak’s fastest carrier, the number of delegates selected in pennsylvania by both the two parties (281) was only a little less than that of the other four combined (355). for the democrats, despite his string of recent victories, sanders remained a long shot to grab the nomination. he was within striking distance of clinton among pledged delegates, trailing 1,444 to 1,245, but trailed 502 to 38 among unpledged party leaders known as superdelegates, which meant that he was now clearly a long shot to amass the 2,382 delegates required to secure the democratic party nomination. overall, clinton had won 21 primaries and 48 john j. kennedy caucuses while sanders prevailed in 19 prior to pennsylvania (couloumbis 2016a). on the republican side, donald trump had astounded everyone with his success, initially grabbing the lead in public opinion polls during the previous summer, later surviving a series of debates that drew record television audiences, and finally translating that into victory after victory on the gop side. along the way he was able to marginalize and even humiliate some of his political rivals who originally comprised the 17-candidate field, the largest ever in modern presidential politics. after rebounding in new york after the rocky patch in wisconsin, april 26 stood as perhaps the last chance for cruz, kasich, or those within the party who were prepared to support anyone to derail his bid. heading into the “acela primary,” trump had amassed 847 of the 1,237 delegates needed to win, while cruz followed with 560 delegates and kasich just 149. the breakdown of primary, caucus, and convention victories at this point was 23 for trump, 13 for cruz, and only one, his home state of ohio for kasich. senator marco rubio, who suspended his campaign following his defeat in the march 15 florida primary, also won two (couloumbis 2016b). in the immediate run up to primary day, senator sanders was the first to arrive in the state on tuesday evening attracting a crowd estimated at over 6,000 supporters at pennsylvania state university (table 1). that sanders chose to spend this night in state college, which was also the evening of the new york primary, underscores both the importance he placed upon pennsylvania for his campaign and what he correctly perceived to be his prospects in new york. the same could be said for senator cruz, who spent the afternoon at the national constitution center in philadelphia before a considerably smaller crowd of about 100 (couloumbis 2016a). over the course of the week, the five candidates made 24 appearances across the commonwealth. crowds ranged in size from a few dozen at a diner in philadelphia in which john kasich made the rounds to approximately 8,500 at a sanders rally in pittsburgh. prominent surrogates also made a number of appearances across the state. clinton’s campaign used these supporters more extensively. her allies included her husband, president bill clinton, new jersey senator cory booker, former arizona congresswoman gabrielle giffords, and various state officials from pennsylvania including senator robert casey. meanwhile, vermont ice cream moguls ben and jerry and actresses susan sarandon and rosario dawson stumped for sanders. dawson created a stir when she raised the name of monica lewinsky as someone who has also been a victim of bullying by the clintons. lewinsky, of course, had an alleged affair with the former president while an intern in the white house. also, an sometimes it does matter 49 table 1. democratic party candidate campaign appearances, april 19–26, 2016 date candidates site city tuesday, april 19 bernie sanders pennsylvania state university state college ted cruz national constitution center philadelphia wednesday, april 20 hillary clinton st. paul’s baptist church philadelphia the fillmore philadelphia ted cruz antique automobile club hershey thursday, april 21 bernie sanders scranton cultural center (a) scranton santander performing arts center reading philadelphia expo center oaks donald trump farm show complex (b) harrisburg john kasich penn statebrandywine (c) media friday, april 22 hillary clinton curds and whey jenkintown bernie sanders sharon baptist center philadelphia gettysburg college gettysburg ted cruz lackawanna station hotel (d) scranton saturday, april 23 ted cruz gateway high school (e) monroeville sunday, april 24 hillary clinton triumph baptist church philadelphia african episcopal church of st. thomas philadelphia monday, april 25 hillary clinton philadelphia city hall philadelphia bernie sanders david lawrence convention center (f) pittsburgh national constitution center philadelphia drexel university philadelphia donald trump west chester university west chester john kasich penrose diner philadelphia tuesday, april 26 hillary clinton pennsylvania convention center philadelphia sources: philadelphia inquirer, except as otherwise noted: (a) from timestribune.com, (b) from mccall. com, (c) from centredaily.com, (d) from timesleader.com, (e) from wtae.com, (f) from wpxi.com. endorsement for sanders from former congressman and philadelphia mayor bill green attracted attention. the republican candidates did not use surrogates as extensively, though for trump it probably wasn’t as necessary, as he commanded so much attention through his own media pronouncements. it was perhaps telling that only hillary clinton decided that it was in her interest to spend election night in 50 john j. kennedy philadelphia. the other winner, donald trump had already decamped back home to trump tower in new york where he claimed victory later that night. the vote after the votes were counted, pennsylvania had delivered a resounding victory for both clinton and trump in their respective primaries. additionally, clinton won three of the four other states contested on april 26, only losing to sanders in rhode island. for sanders, it made the nomination fight even more of an uphill battle, though he would soldier on, hoping that something (perhaps a clinton indictment) could derail her campaign enough to give him an opening with the unpledged delegates. for the gop, however, the race was now essentially over. senator cruz would make one last-ditch attempt to stop trump, but the momentum that the businessman now possessed propelled him to another big victory the following week in indiana. following that result, cruz announced that he had suspended his campaign. the following day, governor kasich followed suit. on the democratic party side, clinton amassed a plurality of just over 203,000 votes on her way to securing almost 56% of the vote overall, a 12point victory over her rival (table 2). she benefited enormously by running up both table 2. democratic and republican vote for president in pennsylvania primary by region, 2016 democrats clinton percentage sanders percentage totals southeast 420,838 61% 274,675 39% 695,513 southwest 207,217 56% 163,773 44% 370,990 northeast 93,649 53% 81,631 47% 175,280 central “t” 213,403 50% 211,802 50% 425,205 totals 935,107 56% 731,881 44% 1,666,988 republicans trump percentage cruz percentage kasich percentage totals southeast 207,660 53% 75,367 19% 108,787 28% 391,814 southwest 167,242 58% 60,254 21% 62,090 21% 289,586 northeast 100,472 67% 28,025 19% 20,880 14% 149,377 central “t” 427,219 59% 181,860 25% 118,246 16% 727,325 totals 902,593 57% 345,506 22% 310,003 19% 1,558,102 source: raw data were provided by the pennsylvania department of state. regional numbers are based on the author’s categorizations. data are rounded to the nearest whole number. sometimes it does matter 51 the largest plurality of votes in philadelphia (89,606) and the largest percentage (63%). combined with its four surrounding suburbs, clinton collected over 146,000 more votes than sanders and 60% overall in the philadelphia suburbs. her plurality in this region also accounted for roughly threequarters of her overall statewide victory.1 heading north, the former secretary of state also carried both the lehigh valley (though she narrowly lost carbon county) and the scrantonwilkes barre area, described below as the northeast. clinton also dominated the southwest, sweeping the nine counties in this traditionally democratic stronghold. nevertheless, the share of counties carried by the two candidates was closer than these overall numbers would indicate, with clinton winning 37 counties and sanders 30. the problem for sanders was that his support tended to be isolated in less populated areas. for example, with 58% of the vote, sanders achieved his largest share in columbia county, but that netted him only 1,097 more votes toward his total. of the 10 most populous counties in the state, sanders carried just two, lancaster and berks (sixth and ninth, respectively). in fact, those are the only two counties within the top twenty most populous in the state that he was able to win. similarly, sanders’ support was largely isolated in pennsylvania’s central “t” region, which he narrowly lost by less than 2,000 votes (figure 1). similarly, the vermont senator captured 14 of the top 20 counties in which republicans have the largest share of registered voters. many of these counties also are more sparsely populated so claiming victory in one might not net many figure 1. democratic party vote for president by county, 2016. (pennsylvania department of state.) 52 john j. kennedy more votes. of course, the fact that a candidate has won a particular county may not mean much beyond that fact, an example being clinton’s one vote victory in two counties, bedford and fulton. on the republican side, the magnitude of donald trump’s victory in what was at the time still a competitive race for his party’s nomination highlights why both of his remaining competitors were on the verge of abandoning their bids. he dominated each of the state’s geographic regions, scoring a majority in each, with a high of 67% in the northeast. trump registered over 70% of the vote in six counties, including a high of 77% in luzerne, and over 60% in 30 additional ones. his competitors kept him below 50% in only four of the state’s 67 counties (centre, chester, lancaster, and montgomery). in fact, the 44% that trump received in culturally conservative lancaster county was his lowest overall in the state. the race for second really didn’t matter at this point, though for the record ted cruz managed 22% to john kasich’s 19%. the former’s strongest showing was in lancaster county (32%), while 31% in chester county marked a high for the latter.2 behind donald trump’s total sweep of pennsylvania’s counties, the victories that both he and clinton registered over their rivals were otherwise quite similar, with the republican receiving 57% of the vote compared to 56% for the democrat. in raw numbers, clinton narrowly outpolled trump by slightly under 33,000 votes, which is almost exactly 1% of the 3.2 million votes cast combined between the two parties. the delegate battle in the week prior to primary day there was as much discussion of the way in which delegates to the national committee were allocated than actual policy issues. in fact, on the gop side, the delegates, in essence became political candidates themselves, holding events, appearing in various news outlets, and expending resources in order to generate support for their candidacy. to some degree, the contests between these delegates for a coveted spot at the national convention competed with the attention afforded the actual presidential contenders. while the method by which democrats select their delegates is certainly not without its critics, the process on the republican side is at least more complicated and perhaps more controversial. a product of the state republican party in pennsylvania, it has been in existence for decades. overall, pennsylvania had 71 delegates slated to attend the republican national convention in cleveland, ohio. of those, 17 are selected in a traditional manner that many states use, being allocated automatically to the candidate that wins sometimes it does matter 53 statewide. these delegates include 14 who are later selected by the republican state committee and, along with three national committee members, are bound on the first ballot to vote for top vote getter. what generated all of the attention, however, was the process in how the remaining 54 delegates, all unbound, are determined. these 54 delegates comprise the largest collection of uncommitted delegates nationally and adds an additional layer of politicking. not just a campaign among the three candidates who remained, it also became a contest for the 162 individuals who ran for these 54 slots across the state. to make the ballot, all that was required was to post 250 signatures. newspapers, talkradio hosts, and even national cable stations all began identifying who these individuals were in an attempt to ascertain who they were supporting. one journalist even personally interviewed 65 of them to find out where they stood (smith 2016). losing some delegate battles to cruz in the weeks leading up to pennsylvania only fed into trump’s claim that the system was “rigged” or “crooked” and ultimately played so well into his campaign narrative that it undoubtedly contributed to his overwhelming victory. because of the size of his victory, controversy surrounding the delegate selection system was ultimately moot, as the new yorker walked away with 42 of 54 available. of those, 31 were individuals who had declared themselves as trump supporters prior to the primary and an additional 11 who had professed support to the winner of their congressional district. ted cruz received only 4, while 3 others were pledged to the most electable candidate, which was perceived by most as a vote for kasich (greenpaper.com 2016). at the time this manuscript was submitted, the final five unbound delegates remained uncommitted. the foremost criticism of the manner in which the democratic party selects its delegates centers on its unpledged delegates. these superdelegates were established in 1982 by the hunt commission in an attempt to give party leaders a greater say in the selection of their party’s nominee. this came after the insurgent candidacies of george mcgovern and jimmy carter had grabbed the party nomination in previous cycles. however, criticism of this is leveled at the national party and not at the state democratic party, since that is where these rules are made. the democrats send 210 delegates overall to the national convention, a figure divided between those categorized as pledged and unpledged. within the pledged category, 189 are allocated to candidates based upon the primary returns. of those, 127 are determined by the proportional vote that each candidate receives in each of the state’s 18 congressional districts. the 62 pledged delegates that remain are distributed according to each candidate’s statewide percentage of the vote. additionally, there is a 15% mandatory threshold required of the candidate to receive delegates based 54 john j. kennedy upon those allocated at either the congressional district or statewide level (pennsylvania democratic party 2016). of those considered part of the unpledged group, 13 are members of the democratic national committee, while the 6 members of the state’s congressional delegation (1 senator and 5 house members), and the governor, tom wolf, are designated automatically. former governor ed rendell, chosen as the one distinguished party leader rounded out the list of superdelegates (pennsylvania democratic party 2016). voter turnout other than the size of the victory for the two frontrunners, perhaps the biggest story of the 2016 presidential primary in pennsylvania was the dramatic difference in turnout recorded between the two parties. as table 3 indicates, 51% of republican party voters cast their ballot on april 24, the majority of whom voted for donald trump. in contrast, only 41% of democrats felt that it was worth their effort to cast a ballot for either hillary clinton or bernie sanders. this suggests a large enthusiasm gap between how each of the party’s rank and file voters views their candidates, which should be of particular concern for democrats heading into the fall. additionally, turnout on the democratic party side was largely driven by just a few counties, particularly those located in the southeast part of the state. had it not been for these voters, turnout for the democrats would have been nothing short of abysmal, especially in comparison to the gop turnout. while turnout in the southeast was still relatively low at 45% , four points less than that on the republican side, the gap was much smaller than in the other regions, where it reached double digits in each. republican voters were table 3. democratic and republican party turnout for pennsylvania primary, 2016 democrats votes percentage republicans votes percentage southeast 1,558,077 698,831 45% 824,089 402,213 49% southwest 908,934 375,364 41% 573,491 294,142 51% northeast 466,792 176,920 38% 303,914 151,791 50% central “t” 1,122,147 430,312 38% 1,420,625 746,329 53% totals 4,055,950 1,681,427 41% 3,122,119 1,594,475 51% source: raw data were provided by the pennsylvania department of state. regional numbers are based on the author’s categorizations. data are rounded to the nearest whole number. sometimes it does matter 55 particularly motivated in the central “t,” where turnout reached 53%, a staggering 15 points higher than democratic turnout in this 47 county area.3 additionally, in only 12 of the state’s 67 counties did the democrats register turnout higher than their overall 41% average. this includes those five counties in the southeast, along with the democratic strongholds of allegheny and lackawanna counties. centre county, where the democrats hold a modest edge, also was above the average. the remaining counties on this list are all located along the susquehanna river (wyoming, union, perry, and cumberland) and are also all staunchly republican. conversely, in 49 counties, turnout was below the overall 41% average, while in 7 others, it was the exact average. overall, turnout among democrats across the state ranged from a high of 50% in montgomery county to a low of only 29% in fulton and jefferson counties (figure 2). in comparison, voter turnout on the gop side, generated primarily by donald trump, was nothing less than remarkable. at 51%, not only was it more than half of registered republicans statewide, it was also more consistently distributed across the entire commonwealth. turnout on the republican side was above the statewide average in 40 of pennsylvania’s 67 counties and even with the statewide average in another 9 counties. therefore, in only 18 counties was it behind the overall average. the highest turnout on the gop figure 2. democratic party turnout by county, 2016. (pennsylvania department of state.) 56 john j. kennedy figure 3. republican party turnout by county, 2016. (pennsylvania department of state.) side was recorded in wyoming county, located in the far northeastern part of the state, where an astonishing 62% of registered republicans turned out in a primary election. the lowest turnout figure was in philadelphia, where only 37% of republican voted (figure 3). philadelphia was also the only county in the state in which democratic party turnout eclipsed that of the gop (44% to 37%). in fact, the democrats in only 10 other counties stayed within single digits of their rivals, and again four of those were the suburban philadelphia counties. historical perspective examining pennsylvania’s 2016 primary turnout from a historical perspective is also informative. table 4 lists the voting age population (vap) turnout for the pennsylvania primary since its inception in 1912. the 31.6% turnout in 2016 marks the fourth highest level of turnout in the state’s primary history, trailing only the 1912, 1980, and 2008 contests. those are also the only four years in which turnout surpassed the 30% mark, and not surprisingly these are also the four more contested presidential races in the state’s primary history. sometimes it does matter 57 below, figure 4 illustrates the fluctuation in the vap that has occurred over time. the first pennsylvania primary election took place on april 13, 1912, one day before the sinking of the titanic, and it was also one of the most tumultuous contests that the state would ever witness. it was one of 13 states nationally that moved to a primary system, opening up the process in some degree to each party’s rank and file. this was a significant increase from just four years earlier in 1908 when only four states held primaries (gans 2010). figure 4. voting age population turnout rates in pennsylvania primary since 1912. (for years 1912–2008: curtis gans, ed., voter turnout in the united states, 1788–2009. [washington, dc: congressional quarterly press, 2010]. for years 2012 and 2016: presidential primary vote turnout, uselectionproject.com.) table 4. voting age population turnout rates in pennsylvania primary since 1912 year vap turnout rate year vap turnout rate year vap turnout rate year vap turnout rate 2016 31.6% 1988 26.7% 1960 17.8% 1932 11.4% 2012 14.2% 1984 26.0% 1956 24.3% 1928 n/a 2008 33.3% 1980 33.0% 1952 21.1% 1924 3.3% 2004 17.7% 1976 26.2% 1948 9.0% 1920 8.9% 2000 14.7% 1972 19.4% 1944 7.8% 1916 20.4% 1996 15.1% 1968 12.1% 1940 13.2% 1912 30.2% 1992 25.3% 1964 9.9% 1936 21.3% sources: for years 1912–2008, curtis gans, ed., voter turnout in the united states, 1788–2009 (washington, dc: congressional quarterly press, 2010). for years 2012 and 2016, presidential primary vote turnout, uselectionproject.com. 58 john j. kennedy the bitter battle between former president theodore roosevelt and his running mate, and now president, william howard taft, escalated throughout the primary season and would divide the gop in pennsylvania as it had throughout the nation. taft had the support of republican boss and u.s. senator boies penrose as well as the powerful philadelphia machine, while roosevelt efforts were led by former u.s. senator william flynn of pittsburgh. while roosevelt won with 60% of the vote and walked off with a majority of the delegates, he fell short of the nomination largely due to the national leadership of the gop ultimately rallying around taft (“election results” 1912). at this time, the overwhelming majority of delegates were selected in state conventions by state committees and not in primaries. through much of this time the impact of the state’s primary was negligible, either because many of the delegates were still selected independently of the primary in conventions or because the primary came rather late in the calendar. there was also a history of “favorite sons” candidacies up through the 1960s, which were commonly used in many states as a way for party leaders to exert greater control over the state delegation process and to also have more clout at the national convention.4 additionally, writein candidacies were also the norm up until the 1980s. in fact, twice, in 1923 and 1964, every candidate was a writein. in other years, such as 1944 (franklin roosevelt), 1948 (harry truman), 1960 (richard nixon), 1968 (eugene mccarthy), only one candidate was listed on the ballot for each party. everyone else was a writein. even as late as 1976, ronald reagan was a writein, his name not appearing on the ballot. the impact of primaries throughout the years was minimal and certainly not the major political event that they are today (gans 2010). it wasn’t until 1980 that primaries in pennsylvania began to approach a style that would be recognizable today. that year was also the second time that turnout reached the 30% mark and stands as the second highest in the state’s primary history. generating this interest was a competitive race for both parties. on the gop side, george bush’s more moderate stance played well among republican voters and he easily defeated the more conservative ronald reagan by 8 percentage points. however, the controversy surrounding the delegate selection process appeared for the first time after reagan walked off with a majority of the convention delegates. of course, reagan also eventually prevailed, selected bush as his running mate uniting the party, and went on to win in the fall (gans 2010). such was not the case on the democratic side, in what was one of the most acrimonious contests ever to appear in either party’s history, perhaps rivaled only by the roosevelt/taft fight. like the 1912 internecine battle, this also sometimes it does matter 59 involved a sitting u.s. president; this time jimmy carter was challenged from the left by senator edward kennedy of massachusetts. while kennedy narrowly prevailed in pennsylvania, thanks in part to a last-minute endorsement by philadelphia mayor bill green, it still wasn’t enough to prevent the incumbent from reclaiming the nomination, thanks in large part to a series of primary victories that he had rolled up in the early stages of the campaign. again, just as in 1912, the fissure between the two combatants and their supporters didn’t heal in time to prevent the opposition party from winning in november. the highest primary turnout recorded in pennsylvania history would occur more recently in 2008, when hillary clinton and barack obama squared off against one another in a dramatic primary contest. while this year produced intense competition on both sides, what pennsylvania experienced in 2008 on the democratic side was unparalleled. this was due not only to the continuing struggle between the contenders but the sheer amount of time that existed between the most recent primary to take place in mississippi on march 11. for six weeks, pennsylvania was the center of the political universe and the drama produced by both sides did not disappoint. first, during this time, in late march, a video appeared in which the reverend jeremiah wright, pastor at obama’s chicago church, was caught making particularly incendiary racial statements from the pulpit. while obama rejected these comments, the question of whether he was actually in attendance on the day of the service was the source of much speculation (“the wright controversy” 2008). then with two weeks to go before the primary, obama faced perhaps the greatest crisis of his entire campaign. a video was leaked from a fundr aiser in san francisco in which he commented that working-class people “cling to guns or religion” because they had been abandoned by their political leaders. both clinton and the republicans presented it as evidence that he was elitist and condescending to working-class voters. obama was clearly put on the defensive as election day approached. in addition, the democratic organization throughout the state was largely behind clinton, particularly in vote-r ich philadelphia, where former mayor and then governor ed rendell spearheaded her efforts (seelye 2008). clinton rode all this to an overwhelming victory in the state, racking up 55% of the vote. however, unlike this year, it was her opponent who came in with the delegate lead, and her victory in pennsylvania proved to be too little too late. however, unlike the republicans in 1912 and the democrats in 1980, the rift between the two camps largely disappeared by the fall allowing the party to regain the presidency. what develops between now and november between the clinton and sanders factions will certainly impact the final outcome once again. 60 john j. kennedy turnout revisited another way to address turnout, which can provide further insight on the state of this campaign and also the history of the state’s primary selection process, is comparing the percentage of voters within the two parties to their share of registered voters. those results, listed in table 5, examine this aspect of turnout since the modern era of presidential primaries began in 1980 and provide insight on two fronts. first, it is clearly evident, and not surprising, that the competiveness of the nomination fight within a particular party has a major impact on the level of overall turnout. for instance, turnout was over 40% in both the democratic and republican primaries three times, 1980, 1992, and 2016, all years when both sides offered a competitive race for president. while the race in 1992 was largely settled by the time the pennsylvania primary arrived in april, interest in politics that year was at a high not seen in decades, thanks in part to a recession, and also a compelling third party bid initiated by h. ross perot. thus, while paul tsongas and patrick buchanan’s quests were clearly on the verge of coming up short on the democratic and republican sides, respectively, interest remained high throughout that spring in the political process. the impact that the competiveness of a race can have on turnout is also clearly evident when there is an incumbent president unopposed on one table 5. democratic and republican party turnout compared with registered voters year registered democrats registered republicans democratic turnout republican turnout democratic turnout percentage republican turnout percentage 2016 4,062,360 3,126,164 1,681,427 1,594,475 41.4% 51.0% 2012 4,131,280 3,061,125 616,102 808,115 14.9% 26.4% 2008 4,200,109 3,186,057 2,336,480 816,928 55.6% 25.6% 2004 3,706,122 3,230,496 729,882 861,551 19.7% 26.7% 2000 3,633,822 3,161,402 704,150 643,085 19.4% 20.3% 1996 3,147,836 2,765,840 724,069 684,204 23.0% 24.7% 1992 2,710,389 2,362,748 1,265,495 1,008,777 46.7% 42.7% 1988 2,848,528 2,279,849 1,507,890 870549 52.9% 38.2% 1984 3,176,515 2,230,508 1,597,055 616916 50.3% 27.7% 1980 2,917,087 2,190,441 1,600,820 1,211,222 54.9% 55.3% source: pennsylvania department of state. data were tabulated by the author. sometimes it does matter 61 party column while the other has a contest, albeit one that might be basically decided by the time of pennsylvania’s primary. in 1984, the democratic contest between walter mondale and gary hart was certainly not settled at this point, and turnout was 23 points greater than the republicans who were poised to renominate president reagan. however, there was also roughly a 12-point differential in 2012 when it was democratic president barack obama running unopposed, and it was the republicans who still had a race, albeit one in which by this time it was almost certain that mitt romney was the one headed toward the nomination. additionally, there are also times when a competitive race further down the ballot might be credited with producing a spike in turnout. such was the case in 2004, when even though turnout was down overall as the presidential race was all but decided by april on the democratic side and president george  w. bush was unopposed, gop turnout was seven points higher, thanks to the competitive primary challenge that specter faced from congressman pat toomey. the contrasting results of 2008 and 2012 the most compelling data, however, as it pertains to the upcoming election this fall is the difference in democratic and republican turnout this year as it contrasts with the democratic party turnout in 2008. despite more than 900,000 registered voters statewide, democrats only outnumbered republicans heading to the polls on primary day in 2016 by slightly less than 87,000 voters. consistent with this data, the percentage difference between the two parties was considerable at 9.6%. this “enthusiasm gap” between the two parties should be of particular concern for the democrats as they head into the fall campaign and perhaps portends that pennsylvania will be one of the key battleground states. what should be of particular concern to democrats is the turnout levels recorded this spring in their clinton/sanders contest, compared with the numbers achieved by clinton eight years ago in her battle with barack obama. more than 655,000 more democrats lined up to cast their ballot in 2008 than they did this year. again, the percentage difference follows and produces an incredible 14.2% gap between these two electoral cycles. making this even more worrisome is that not only were both still vigorously being fought (thus worth comparing) but that they’re the same individual; hillary clinton, was the eventual winner in both races (and by basically the same margin). 62 john j. kennedy below, table 6 addresses clinton’s decline through a different lens, marking a contrast between her vote totals and overall percentage in each of pennsylvania’s four political regions. only in the southeast, was she able to increase both her overall numbers (over 40,000 votes) and percentage (11%). this is largely attributable to the support that barack obama received in these counties, particularly in philadelphia in the 2008 contest. while she was able to maintain the same percentage (62%) in the “t,” clinton’s number did decline by almost 160,000 votes in the region. in the southwest and northwest, however, there was a falloff of over 138,000 and 82,000 votes, respectively, accounting for a sharp decrease of 15 percentage points in each. as for individual counties, in 2016, her raw vote increased in only four counties, three of which, chester (187 votes), dauphin (105), and delaware (3,224) only slightly.5 only in philadelphia, where she experienced an increase of 65,012 was the difference of any significance. again, this increase is also more likely due to the fact that she wasn’t running against barack obama, whose support in the africanamerican community was unrivaled, than it was to an sudden jolt of support for clinton’s own campaign. what should be particularly concerning to clinton’s supporters is the decline she experienced in some of the most stalwart democratic counties in the state, such as over 45,000 fewer in allegheny, 20,000 in lackawanna, and 27,000 in luzerne. along with more partisan balanced counties such as bucks and west moreland, her numbers also slipped considerably by over 24,000 and 26,000, respectively. assuredly, these are the type of places that trump and the gop will be targeting in the fall. as for comparing her overall percentages, clinton was able to increase her share in ten counties, allegheny, centre, chester, dauphin, delaware, table 6. hillary clinton’s vote comparison between 2008 and 2016 by pennsylvania political region 2008 votes 2016 votes votes +/– 2008 percentage 2016 percentage percentage +/– southeast 379,945 420,838 40,893 48% 59% 11% southwest 345,820 207,217 –138,603 70% 55% –15% northeast 176,546 93,649 –82,897 68% 52% –15% central “t” 372,728 213,403 –159,325 62% 62% 0% totals 1,275,039 935,107 –339,932 62% 57% –5% source: raw data were provided by the pennsylvania department of state. regional numbers are based on the author’s categorizations. data are rounded to the nearest whole number. sometimes it does matter 63 lancaster, montgomery, philadelphia, potter and union, four of which are located in the southeast. the sole county in this region in which her percentage declined was in bucks. nevertheless, while her percentage share did increase overall in 2016, clinton’s significant 339,451 vote drop indicates some weakness and suggests that this percentage increase is probably due more to that fact that she was running against a more popular candidate in 2008. indeed, as table 7 illustrates, a comparison of exit poll results following clinton’s 2008 and 2016 pennsylvania primary victories reveals one of her greatest challenges heading into the fall (trump’s victory was so dominant that the gop exit polls reveal little). some variances can be expected, such as the shift in voting along racial lines (given her opponent was obama table 7. exit poll results, pennsylvania democratic presidential primary, 2008 and 2016 2008 2016 number clinton obama number clinton sanders gender male 42% 49% 51% 40% 49% 50% female 58% 59% 41% 60% 60% 39% vote by age 18–29 12% 40% 60% 12% 17% 83% 30–44 19% 47% 53% 24% 47% 53% 45–59 37% 56% 44% 41% 65% 34% 60 and older 32% 62% 38% 23% 67% 31% vote by race white 80% 63% 37% 68% 51% 47% black 15% 10% 90% 19% 70% 30% education no college degree 53% 58% 42% 45% 55% 45% college graduate 47% 51% 49% 55% 56% 43% is hillary clinton honest and trustworthy? yes 58% 77% 23% 58% 81% 17% no 40% 23% 77% 38% 18% 82% area type urban 29% 40% 60% 48% 57% 43% suburban 31% 59% 41% 31% 59% 41% rural 20% 63% 37% 21% 48% 50% source: cnn.com: http://www.cnn.com/election/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#padem; http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/pa/dem. 64 john j. kennedy eight years earlier) and some that might seem surprising, such as how her numbers increased overall on the question of trustworthiness. however, the most startling contrast within these two sets of exit polls can be traced to those democratic primary voters between the ages of 18–29. within this subgroup, clinton’s support declined from 40% in 2008 to just 17% this year. for her to win in november, much will hinge on whether she can win back these younger voters who served as the bedrock of bernie sanders campaign. whether she is able to attract those voters who opposed her in the primary, such as obama did with her voters eight years ago, will go a long way toward deciding not only who grabs pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes, but also who takes the biggest prize itself. 65 appendix a table a.1. categorization key for pennsylvania’s political geographic regions southeast (5) southwest (9) northeast (6) central “t” (47) bucks chester delaware montgomery philadelphia allegheny armstrong beaver butler fayette greene lawrence washington westmoreland carbon lackawanna lehigh luzerne monroe northampton adams bedford berks blair bradford cambria cameron centre clarion clearfield clinton columbia crawford cumberland dauphin elk erie forest franklin fulton huntingdon indiana jefferson juniata lancaster lebanon lycoming mckean mercer mifflin montour northumberland perry pike potter schuylkill snyder somerset sullivan susquehanna tioga union venango warren wayne wyoming york source: categorizations based upon the author’s groupings were initially presented in john j. kennedy, pennsylvania elections lanham, md: university press of america, 2005. 66 table b.1. democratic vote for president in pennsylvania primary by county, 2016 county clinton percentage sanders percentage adams 3,863 48% 4,101 51% allegheny 123,715 55% 99,078 44% armstrong 2,992 48% 3,073 50% beaver 13,531 57% 9,873 42% bedford 1,388 49% 1,387 49% berks 21,063 48% 22,078 51% blair 3,965 47% 4,360 52% bradford 1,809 49% 1,839 50% bucks 46,917 56% 36,173 43% butler 8,790 52% 7,833 46% cambria 8,507 47% 9,024 50% cameron 186 42% 240 54% carbon 3,384 49% 3,460 50% centre 8,458 45% 10,331 55% chester 33,082 56% 26,193 44% clarion 1,529 49% 1,511 49% clearfield 3,194 47% 3,414 51% clinton 1,704 49% 1,739 50% columbia 2,504 40% 3,601 58% crawford 3,707 49% 3,789 50% cumberland 12,421 52% 11,513 48% dauphin 18,474 57% 13,787 42% delaware 46,252 60% 30,824 40% elk 1,601 45% 1,846 52% erie 20,395 52% 18,362 47% fayette 9,195 58% 6,460 41% forest 251 52% 221 46% franklin 4,707 52% 4,282 47% fulton 366 49% 365 49% greene 2,268 53% 1,927 45% huntingdon 1,304 43% 1,666 55% indiana 4,049 50% 3,839 48% jefferson 1,249 44% 1,507 53% juniata 664 46% 754 52% appendix b 67 county clinton percentage sanders percentage lackawanna 23,020 57% 17,308 42% lancaster 19,840 48% 21,321 52% lawrence 5,845 59% 3,981 40% lebanon 4,669 50% 4,599 49% lehigh 20,430 52% 18,338 47% luzerne 20,542 52% 18,543 47% lycoming 3,808 44% 4,730 55% mckean 1,053 46% 1,190 52% mercer 6,530 57% 4,739 41% mifflin 1,201 48% 1,242 50% monroe 8,169 53% 7,042 46% montgomery 75,628 59% 52,132 41% montour 846 48% 890 50% northampton 18,104 51% 16,940 48% northumberland 3,582 49% 3,632 50% perry 1,329 43% 1,752 56% philadelphia 218,959 63% 129,353 37% pike 2,009 51% 1,894 48% potter 402 41% 560 57% schuylkill 6,534 51% 6,040 47% snyder 1,125 50% 1,081 48% somerset 3,114 48% 3,206 50% sullivan 312 50% 296 48% susquehanna 1,680 50% 1,610 48% tioga 1,055 43% 1,354 55% union 1,626 50% 1,579 49% venango 2,020 48% 2,087 50% warren 1,836 52% 1,665 47% washington 15,872 57% 11,262 41% wayne 1,859 47% 2,026 52% westmoreland 25,009 54% 20,286 44% wyoming 1,156 48% 1,209 50% york 18,459 51% 17,544 48% totals 935,107 56% 731,881 44% source: pennsylvania department of state. data are rounded to the nearest whole number. 68 table c.1. republican vote for president in pennsylvania primary by county, 2016 county trump percentage cruz percentage kasich percentage adams 9,773 57% 4,076 24% 2,705 16% allegheny 61,469 51% 24,091 20% 33,318 28% armstrong 7,718 67% 2,205 19% 1,363 12% beaver 11,499 57% 4,490 22% 3,747 19% bedford 6,577 63% 2,564 25% 963 9% berks 29,260 59% 10,622 22% 8,196 17% blair 13,178 61% 5,243 24% 2,652 12% bradford 6,665 61% 2,415 22% 1,575 14% bucks 51,461 57% 17,139 19% 20,240 22% butler 20,054 57% 7,813 22% 6,922 20% cambria 10,988 65% 3,508 21% 2,077 12% cameron 503 58% 195 22% 137 16% carbon 6,032 72% 1,433 17% 709 9% centre 10,027 49% 5,215 26% 4,569 22% chester 35,631 47% 15,038 20% 23,908 31% clarion 4,230 61% 1,460 21% 1,026 15% clearfield 8,017 67% 2,310 19% 1,423 12% clinton 3,236 65% 1,055 21% 550 11% columbia 6,071 67% 1,714 19% 1,064 12% crawford 7,672 55% 3,617 26% 2,290 16% cumberland 22,977 51% 12,200 27% 9,031 20% dauphin 21,310 53% 10,200 26% 7,320 18% delaware 43,237 52% 13,456 16% 23,640 28% elk 2,688 67% 667 17% 577 14% erie 16,495 52% 7,856 25% 6,507 21% fayette 8,550 70% 2,224 18% 1,327 11% forest 598 64% 180 19% 138 15% franklin 15,653 58% 6,958 26% 3,671 14% fulton 1,779 64% 660 24% 242 9% greene 2,532 65% 845 22% 430 11% huntingdon 5,236 62% 1,885 22% 981 12% indiana 7,743 62% 2,634 21% 1,816 15% jefferson 5,222 66% 1,505 19% 1,047 13% juniata 2,394 56% 1,163 27% 553 13% appendix c 69 county trump percentage cruz percentage kasich percentage lackawanna 14,430 70% 3,368 16% 2,606 13% lancaster 38,257 44% 27,470 32% 18,766 22% lawrence 6,969 60% 2,636 23% 1,801 15% lebanon 13,694 55% 6,789 27% 3,806 15% lehigh 21,383 55% 9,079 24% 7,377 19% luzerne 28,680 77% 4,633 13% 3,371 9% lycoming 12,917 62% 5,349 26% 2,217 11% mckean 3,901 63% 1,151 19% 960 16% mercer 8,454 55% 3,085 20% 3,429 22% mifflin 4,310 59% 1,788 24% 1,041 14% monroe 10,252 69% 2,499 17% 1,798 12% montgomery 51,593 48% 21,503 20% 31,370 29% montour 1,745 59% 617 21% 512 17% northampton 19,695 61% 7,013 22% 5,019 16% northumberland 8,241 64% 2,865 22% 1,464 11% perry 5,519 57% 2,780 29% 1,092 11% philadelphia 25,738 57% 8,231 18% 9,629 21% pike 5,203 74% 955 14% 779 11% potter 2,369 66% 709 20% 399 11% schuylkill 16,801 74% 3,085 14% 2,342 10% snyder 3,745 54% 2,034 29% 996 14% somerset 9,069 64% 3,159 22% 1,540 11% sullivan 842 64% 247 19% 183 14% susquehanna 5,036 61% 2,067 25% 1,042 13% tioga 4,742 61% 1,687 22% 1,140 15% union 3,421 52% 1,953 30% 1,020 16% venango 4,934 56% 2,389 27% 1,334 15% warren 3,771 56% 1,716 25% 1,088 16% washington 16,242 61% 5,444 20% 4,670 17% wayne 6,395 68% 1,867 20% 959 10% westmoreland 32,209 62% 10,506 20% 8,512 16% wyoming 3,634 66% 1,110 20% 633 12% york 41,927 59% 17,086 24% 10,394 15% totals 902,593 57% 345,506 22% 310,003 19% source: pennsylvania department of state. data are rounded to the nearest whole number. 70 table d.1. democratic and republican party turnout by county, 2016 county registered democrats voters percentage turnout registered republicans voters percentage turnout adams 19,565 8,035 41% 33,678 17,071 51% allegheny 520,006 224,612 43% 246,022 120,622 49% armstrong 15,832 6,195 39% 20,434 11,525 56% beaver 58,855 23,773 40% 38,020 20,111 53% bedford 9,598 2,838 30% 20,441 10,426 51% berks 115,735 43,563 38% 95,266 49,177 52% blair 24,000 8,460 35% 41,835 21,659 52% bradford 10,444 3,701 35% 21,363 10,966 51% bucks 190,862 83,927 44% 179,940 90,991 51% butler 41,167 16,872 41% 65,265 35,453 54% cambria 45,529 18,040 40% 29,919 16,933 57% cameron 1,220 444 36% 1,636 872 53% carbon 18,211 6,945 38% 16,260 8,324 51% centre 44,939 18,912 42% 42,673 20,381 48% chester 129,234 59,479 46% 149,589 76,240 51% clarion 8,086 3,099 38% 12,275 6,896 56% clearfield 21,008 6,753 32% 24,863 12,007 48% clinton 8,983 3,504 39% 9,348 4,946 53% columbia 15,636 6,186 40% 16,917 9,046 53% crawford 19,359 7,614 39% 26,219 13,971 53% cumberland 53,030 24,102 45% 81,402 45,374 56% dauphin 82,783 32,511 39% 73,742 39,844 54% delaware 178,249 77,439 43% 168,124 83,132 49% elk 9,649 3,519 36% 7,834 4,031 51% erie 95,107 39,095 41% 63,012 31,647 50% fayette 48,796 15,940 33% 25,120 12,268 49% forest 1,294 482 37% 1,711 938 55% franklin 24,470 9,107 37% 50,932 27,131 53% fulton 2,600 749 29% 5,319 2,770 52% greene 12,615 4,316 34% 7,235 3,874 54% huntingdon 9,106 3,013 33% 16,542 8,388 51% indiana 20,114 8,044 40% 22,148 12,495 56% jefferson 9,753 2,846 29% 15,937 7,963 50% juniata 3,994 1,456 36% 7,943 4,258 54% appendix d 71 county registered democrats voters percentage turnout registered republicans voters percentage turnout lackawanna 89,887 40,730 45% 40,036 20,710 52% lancaster 103,052 41,358 40% 166,930 86,933 52% lawrence 27,408 9,968 36% 21,798 11,627 53% lebanon 26,149 9,361 36% 44,878 24,874 55% lehigh 109,364 38,992 36% 37,516 38,588 50% luzerne 105,473 39,547 37% 68,565 37,062 54% lycoming 22,073 8,666 39% 35,991 20,941 58% mckean 7,269 2,280 31% 13,573 6,167 45% mercer 33,805 11,459 34% 31,262 15,325 49% mifflin 7,519 2,487 33% 14,552 7,320 50% monroe 48,931 15,334 31% 33,670 14,839 44% montgomery 257,956 128,181 50% 208,044 106,896 51% montour 4,679 1,768 38% 5,987 2,950 49% northampton 94,926 35,372 37% 68,809 32,268 47% northumberland 21,695 7,322 34% 26,122 12,849 49% perry 7,155 3,120 44% 17,028 9,650 57% philadelphia 801,776 349,805 44% 118,392 44,954 38% pike 13,212 3,922 30% 16,471 7,020 43% potter 2,903 982 34% 6,696 3,577 53% schuylkill 33,902 12,738 38% 41,098 22,627 55% snyder 5,391 2,232 41% 13,095 6,972 53% somerset 17,997 6,463 36% 25,685 14,176 55% sullivan 1,533 622 41% 2,334 1,310 56% susquehanna 8,045 3,332 41% 14,330 8,313 58% tioga 7,174 2,442 34% 15,156 7,810 52% union 6,987 3,220 46% 12,102 6,567 54% venango 11,087 4,201 38% 16,567 8,885 54% warren 10,626 3,554 33% 14,579 6,790 47% washington 66,805 27,639 41% 50,570 26,722 53% wayne 10,020 3,919 39% 17,216 9,357 54% westmoreland 117,450 46,049 39% 99,027 51,940 52% wyoming 5,244 2,398 46% 8,931 5,502 62% york 98,628 36,393 37% 137,087 71,224 52% totals 4,055,950 1,681,427 41% 3,122,135 1,594,475 51% source: pennsylvania department of state. data were tabulated by the author. 72 table demo e.1. presidential primary results in pennsylvania, 1912–2016 cratic votes percentage republican votes percentage april 13, 1912 wilson 98,000 100.0% roosevelt 282,853 59.7% taft 191,179 40.3% may 16, 1916 wilson 142,202 98.7% brumbaugh** 233,095 86.3% others* 1,839 1.3% ford* 20,265 75.0% roosevelt* 12,359 46.0% hughes* 1,804 70.0% others 2,682 100.0% may 18, 1920 palmer** 80,356 73.7% e. wood** 257,841 92.3% mcadoo 26,875 24.6% johnson* 10,869 3.8% edwards* 674 0.6% l. wood* 3,878 1.4% others 1,132 0.1% hoover 2,825 1.0% others* 4,059 1.5% april 22, 1924 mcadoo* 10,376 43.7% coolidge* 117,262 87.9% smith* 9,029 38.0% johnson* 4,345 330.0% others* 4,341 18.3% la follette* 1,224 90.0% others* 10,523 7.9% april 24, 1928 smith 24,102 98.1% hoover 65,480 90.0% walsh 420 1.7% coolidge 4,438 6.1% reed 54 0.2% dawes 1,225 1.7% fuller 998 1.4% lowden 578 0.8% april 26, 1932 roosevelt 133,002 56.6% france 352,092 92.9% smith 101,227 43.1% hoover 20,662 5.5% others* 563 0.2% others 6,126 1.6% april 28, 1936 roosevelt 720,309 95.3% borah 459,982 100.0% breckinridge 35,351 4.7% appendix e 73 democratic votes percentage republican votes percentage april 23, 1940 roosevelt 724,657 100.0% dewey 52,661 66.7% roosevelt 8,294 10.5% james** 8,172 10.3% taft 5,213 6.6% vandenberg 2,384 3.0% hoover 1,082 1.4% willkie 707 0.9% others* 463 0.6% april 25, 1944 roosevelt 322,469 99.7% dewey* 146,706 83.8% others* 961 0.3% macarthur* 9,032 5.2% roosevelt 8,815 5.0% willkie* 3,650 2.1% bricker* 2,936 1.7% martin** 2,406 1.4% stassen* 1,502 0.9% april 27, 1948 truman 328,891 96.0% stassen* 81,242 31.5% eisenhower* 4,502 1.3% dewey* 76,988 29.8% wallace* 4,329 1.3% martin** 45,072 17.5% stassen* 1,301 0.4% macarthur* 18,254 7.1% macarthur* 1,220 0.4% taft* 15,166 5.9% others* 2,409 0.7% vandeberg* 8,818 3.4% truman* 4,907 1.9% eisenhower* 4,726 1.8% wallace* 1,452 0.6% others* 1,537 0.6% april 22, 1952 kefauver* 93,160 53.3% eisenhower 863,785 73.6% eisenhower* 28,660 16.4% taft* 178,629 15.2% truman 26,504 15.2% stassen 120,305 10.3% taft* 8,311 4.8% macarthur* 6,028 0.5% harriman* 3,745 2.1% warren* 3,158 0.3% stevenson* 3,678 2.1% truman* 267 0.1% russell* 1,691 0.1% others* 9,026 5.2% others* 1,121 0.1% 74 table e.1 (continued) democratic votes percentage republican votes percentage april 24, 1956 stevenson 642,172 93.6% eisenhower 951,932 95.5% kefauver* 36,552 5.3% knowland 43,508 4.4% others* 7,482 1.1% others* 976 0.1% april 26, 1960 kennedy* 183,073 71.3% nixon 968,538 98.1% stevenson* 29,660 11.5% rockefeller* 12,491 13.0% nixon* 15,136 5.9% kennedy* 3,886 0.4% humphrey* 13,860 5.4% stevenson* 428 0.1% symington* 6,791 2.6% goldwater* 286 0.1% johnson* 2,918 4.0% others* 1,202 0.1% rockefeller* 1,078 4.0% others* 4,297 1.7% april 28, 1964 johnson* 209,606 82.8% scranton* 235,222 51.9% wallace* 12,104 4.8% lodge* 92,712 20.5% kennedy* 12,024 4.7% nixon* 44,396 9.8% scranton* 8,156 3.2% goldwater* 38,669 8.5% lodge* 4,895 1.9% johnson* 22,372 4.9% goldwater* 1,731 0.7% rockefeller* 9,123 2.0% nixon* 1,606 0.2% wallace* 5,105 1.1% rockefeller* 576 0.2% smith* 1,721 0.4% stevenson* 332 0.1% romney* 936 0.2% smith* 260 0.1% kennedy* 661 0.1% romney* 66 0.0% stassen* 280 0.1% others* 1,790 0.7% others* 1,671 0.4% april 23, 1968 mccarthy 428,259 71.7% nixon* 171,815 59.7% kennedy* 65,430 11.0% rockefeller* 52,915 18.4% humphrey* 51,998 8.7% mccarthy* 18,800 6.5% wallace* 24,147 4.0% wallace* 13,290 4.6% johnson* 21,265 3.6% kennedy* 10,431 3.6% nixon* 3,434 0.6% reagan* 7,934 2.8% others* 2,556 0.4% humphrey* 4,651 1.6% johnson* 3,027 1.1% shafer 1,223 0.4% others* 3,487 1.2% 75 democratic votes percentage republican votes percentage april 25, 1972 humphrey 481,900 35.1% nixon* 153,886 83.3% wallace 292,437 21.3% wallace* 20,472 11.1% mcgovern 280,861 20.4% others* 10,443 5.7% muskie 279,983 20.4% jackson 38,767 2.8% chisholm* 306 1.0% others* 585 1.0% april 27, 1976 carter 511,905 37.0% ford 733,472 92.1% jackson 340,340 24.6% reagan* 40,510 5.1% udall 259,166 18.7% others* 22,678 2.8% wallace 155,902 11.3% mccormack 38,800 2.8% shapp 32,947 2.4% bayh 15,320 1.1% harris 13,067 0.9% humphrey* 12,563 0.9% others* 5,032 0.3% april 22, 1980 kennedy 736,954 47.2% bush 628,759 51.9% carter 732,332 46.9% reagan 527,916 43.6% brown 93,805 6.0% baker 30,846 2.5% connally 10,056 0.8% stassen 6,767 0.6% jacobson 4,357 0.4% fernandez 2,521 0.2% april 10, 1984 mondale 747,267 46.8% reagan 616,916 100.0% hart 551,335 34.5% jackson 264,463 16.6% cranston 22,829 1.4% griser 6,090 0.4% askew 5,071 0.3% 76 table e.1 (continued) democratic votes percentage republican votes percentage april 26, 1988 dukakis 1,002,480 66.5% bush 687,323 79.0% jackson 411,260 27.3% dole 103,763 11.9% gore 44,542 3.0% robertson 79,463 9.1% hart 20,473 1.4% simon 9,892 0.7% wesner 7,546 0.5% gephardt 7,254 0.5% larouche 4,443 0.3% april 28, 1992 clinton 715,031 56.5% bush 774,865 76.8% brown 325,543 25.7% buchanan 233,912 23.1% tsongas 161,572 12.8% larouche 21,534 1.7% harkin 21,013 1.7% kerrey 20,802 1.6% april 23, 1996 clinton 666,486 92.1% dole 435,031 63.6% larouche 57,583 8.0% buchanan 123,011 18.0% forbes 55,018 8.0% keyes 40,025 5.9% lugar 31,119 4.6% april 4, 2000 gore 525,306 74.6% bush 472,398 73.4% bradley 146,797 20.9% mccain 145,719 22.7% larouche 32,047 4.6% forbes 16,162 2.5% bauer 8,806 1.4% april 27, 2004 kerry 585,683 74.1% bush 861,555 100.0% dean 79,799 10.1% edwards 76,762 1.0% kucinich 30,110 0.4% larouche 17,528 0.2% april 22, 2008 clinton 1,275,039 54.6% mccain 595,175 72.9% obama 1,061,441 45.4% paul 129,323 15.8% huckabee 92,430 11.3% 77 democratic votes percentage republican votes percentage april 24, 2012 obama 616,102 100.0% romney 468,374 60.0% santorum 149,056 18.4% gingrich 84,537 10.4% paul 106,148 13.1% april 26, 2016 clinton 925,125 55.6% trump 899,125 56.7% sanders 725,042 43.6% cruz 343,464 21.7% de la fuente 14,353 0.9% kasich 307,473 19.3% carson 14,777 0.9% rubio 11,870 0.9% bush 9,491 0.6% source: deborah kalb, ed., cq guide to us elections. 7th ed. washington, dc: congressional quarterly press, 2016. * denotes “writein candidate.” ** denotes “favorite son candidate.” 78 table f.1. hillary clinton’s vote comparison between 2008 and 2016 by pennsylvania county county 2008 votes 2016 votes votes +/– 2008 percentage 2016 percentage percentage +/– adams 6,567 3,863 –2,704 58.1% 48.1% –10.0% allegheny 169,707 123,715 –45,992 54.4% 55.1% 0.7% armstrong 7,246 2,992 –4,254 71.5% 48.3% –23.2% beaver 28,331 13,531 –14,800 69.8% 56.9% –12.9% bedford 3,711 1,388 –2,323 70.1% 48.9% –21.2% berks 36,064 21,063 –15,001 58.0% 48.4% –9.6% blair 8,875 3,965 –4,910 64.8% 46.9% –17.9% bradford 3,877 1,809 –2,068 65.8% 48.9% –16.9% bucks 71,757 46,917 –24,840 62.6% 55.9% –6.7% butler 15,278 8,790 –6,488 63.3% 52.1% –11.2% cambria 23,572 8,507 –15,065 71.8% 47.2% –24.6% cameron 409 186 –223 59.3% 41.9% –17.4% carbon 7,922 3,384 –4,538 78.1% 48.7% –29.5% centre 9,789 8,458 –1,331 39.9% 44.7% 4.8% chester 32,895 33,082 187 44.8% 55.6% 10.8% clarion 3,417 1,529 –1,888 66.4% 49.3% –17.1% clearfield 8,167 3,194 –4,973 68.5% 47.3% –21.2% clinton 3,622 1,704 –1,918 68.3% 48.6% –19.7% columbia 5,556 2,504 –3,052 60.3% 40.5% –19.8% crawford 7,360 3,707 –3,653 62.6% 48.7% –13.9% cumberland 15,840 12,421 –3,419 52.7% 51.5% –1.1% dauphin 18,369 18,474 105 41.8% 56.8% 15.1% delaware 43,028 46,252 3,224 44.4% 59.7% 15.4% elk 4,159 1,601 –2,558 64.8% 45.5% –19.3% erie 34,922 20,395 –14,527 63.0% 52.2% –10.8% fayette 23,095 9,195 –13,900 78.8% 57.7% –21.1% forest 613 251 –362 68.3% 52.1% –16.3% franklin 7,891 4,707 –3,184 59.1% 51.7% –7.4% fulton 962 366 –596 68.0% 48.9% –19.1% greene 6,282 2,268 –4,014 75.4% 52.5% –22.9% huntingdon 2,957 1,304 –1,653 62.5% 43.3% –19.3% indiana 7,901 4,049 –3,852 64.0% 50.3% –13.7% jefferson 3,177 1,249 –1,928 63.3% 43.9% –19.4% juniata 1,711 664 –1,047 68.6% 45.6% –23.0% appendix f 79 county 2008 votes 2016 votes votes +/– 2008 percentage 2016 percentage percentage +/– lackawanna 43,243 23,020 –20,223 73.8% 56.5% –17.3% lancaster 22,906 19,840 –3,066 45.5% 48.0% 2.6% lawrence 13,225 5,845 –7,380 74.2% 58.6% –15.6% lebanon 7,611 4,669 –2,942 56.0% 49.9% –6.1% lehigh 33,163 20,430 –12,733 60.3% 52.4% –7.9% luzerne 48,123 20,542 –27,581 75.0% 51.9% –23.1% lycoming 7,950 3,808 –4,142 58.5% 43.9% –14.6% mckean 2,442 1,053 –1,389 66.2% 46.2% –20.0% mercer 14,168 6,530 –7,638 69.1% 57.0% –12.1% mifflin 3,000 1,201 –1,799 69.9% 48.3% –21.6% monroe 12,487 8,169 –4,318 57.6% 53.3% –4.3% montgomery 78,318 75,628 –2,690 50.7% 59.0% 8.3% montour 1,481 846 –635 60.4% 47.9% –12.5% northampton 31,608 18,104 –13,504 61.3% 51.2% –10.2% northumberland 8,559 3,582 –4,977 71.7% 48.9% –22.8% perry 2,684 1,329 –1,355 61.5% 42.6% –18.9% philadelphia 153,947 218,959 65,012 34.8% 62.6% 27.8% pike 3,684 2,009 –1,675 59.1% 51.2% –7.9% potter 1,050 402 –648 64.9% 40.9% –24.0% schuylkill 15,369 6,534 –8,835 73.6% 51.3% –22.3% snyder 1,824 1,125 –699 62.5% 50.4% –12.1% somerset 8,525 3,114 –5,411 72.4% 48.2% –24.2% sullivan 679 312 –367 68.4% 50.2% –18.2% susquehanna 3,334 1,680 –1,654 65.3% 50.4% –14.9% tioga 2,255 1,055 –1,200 61.6% 43.2% –18.4% union 2,128 1,626 –502 47.9% 50.5% 2.6% venango 4,437 2,020 –2,417 68.3% 48.1% –20.2% warren 3,996 1,836 –2,160 66.2% 51.7% –14.5% washington 31,065 15,872 –15,193 71.3% 57.4% –13.9% wayne 3,478 1,859 –1,619 62.0% 47.4% –14.6% westmoreland 51,591 25,009 –26,582 69.2% 54.3% –14.9% wyoming 2,488 1,156 –1,332 69.0% 48.2% –20.8% york 29,192 18,459 –10,733 55.3% 50.7% –4.6% totals 1,274,558 935,107 –339,451 55.1% 55.6% 0.5% source: pennsylvania department of state. data were tabulated by the author. 80 john j. kennedy notes acknowledgment: special thanks go to beau ryck, a former graduate student in the west chester university department of geography, who did a great job with the maps. 1. for a guide to how pennsylvania’s counties are categorized, please see appendix a. these groupings are subjective and reflect those that the author initially developed in his book, pennsylvania elections (2004). 2. san diego, california, businessman rocky de le fuente also appeared on the democratic ballot in pennsylvania receiving slightly less than 1% overall. additionally, three republican candidates for president who previously dropped out or suspended their campaigns, former florida governor jeb bush, dr. ben carson, and florida senator marco rubio, also remained on the ballot and received a smattering of votes. though for clarity they are excluded in this text, their final percentages are included in appendix e. 3. for a complete list of the results in each individual county, please see appendix d. 4. for a complete list of all results for every pennsylvania presidential primary since 1912, please see appendix e. 5. for a complete list of the results in each individual county, please see appendix f. references brewer, mark d., and l. sandy maisel. 2016. parties and elections in america. washington, dc: congressional quarterly press. cnn.com. atlanta, 2016. available at http://www.cnn.com/election/2008/primaries/ results/epolls/#padem; http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/pa/dem. commonwealth of pennsylvania. 1980–1996. the pennsylvania manual, selected volumes. harrisburg: department of general services. couloumbis, angela. 2016a. “campaign 2016 really rolls into pennsylvania.” philadelphia inquirer, april 20. ———. 2016b. “cruz urges pa. republicans to unite behind him.” philadelphia inquirer, april 21. “delegate vote totals.” 2016. green paper, april 28. available at http:greenpaper.com. “election results.” 1912. editorial, new york times, june 16. flanigan, william h., and nancy h. zingale. 2014. political behavior in the american electorate. washington, dc: congressional quarterly press. gans, curtis, ed. 2010. voter turnout in the us, 1788–2009. washington, dc: congressional quarterly press. horvath, jeff. 2016. “bernie’s message resonates with young crowd.” times-tribune, april 22. kalb, deborah, ed. 2016. cq guide to us elections. 7th ed. washington, dc: congressional quarterly press. kennedy, john j. 2005. pennsylvania elections. lanham, md: university press of america. kraus, scott. 2016. “bernie sanders mines pennsylvania for momentum.” morning call, april 21. martell, matt. 2016. “bernie sanders policies, personality draw support at penn state.” centre daily times, april 19. mccrystal, laura, and claudia vargas. 2016. “clinton speaks about women’s issues, philadelphia issues.” philadelphia inquirer, april 22. mizenko, melanie. 2016. “ted cruz rallies a packed house in scranton.” times leader, april 22. sometimes it does matter 81 olson, laura, and steve esack. 2016. “donald trump rallies in harrisburg draws thousands.” morning call, april 21. pennsylvania democratic party. 2016. delegate selection process. available at http: padems.com. pennsylvania department of state. 2016. harrisburg, pa. “sanders, clinton in pittsburgh area; kasich town hall tonight.” 2016. wpxinbc pittsburgh, april 25. seelye, katherine. 2008. “in pennsylvania, new suburban democrats.” new york times, april 15. seidman, andrew, and patricia madej. 2016. “coming to the region—clintons, sanders, kasich, and trump.” philadelphia inquirer, april 22. smith, allan. 2016. “one quote sums up the odd nature of pennsylvania’s primary system.” business insider, april 24. uselectionproject.com. 2012–2016. presidential primary vote turnout. available at uselectionproject.com. “the wright controversy.” editorial. 2008. new york times, march 12. wtae-a bc pittsburgh. 2016. “cruz visits monroeville.” timestribune, april 22. john j. kennedy, phd, is an associate professor of political science at west chester university. his latest book, pennsylvania government and politics, will be released this fall. he is also the author of pennsylvania elections, originally published in 2005 and revised in 2015, and the contemporary pennsylvania legislature (1999). in 2005, he was selected as a featured speaker for the centennial celebration of the pennsylvania state capital. he earned his doctorate from temple university. structure bookmarks campaigning the vote the delegate battle voter turnout historical perspective turnout revisited the contrasting results of 2008 and 2012 introduction to the special issue on women in pennsylvania politics commonwealth, volume 21, issue 1 (2021). © 2021 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/com.v21i1.285. all rights reserved. introduction to the special issue on women in pennsylvania politics jennie sweet-cushman special issue editor several years ago, as assistant director of the pennsylvania center for women and politics, i interviewed more than a dozen women serving in pennsylvania’s general assembly about the role women play in the legislature. without exception and across region and party these women believe their presence as women matters tremendously in the legislative process, to the legislative agenda, and for legislative outcomes. and they are right; women’s work in the pennsylvania legislature leads to more advocacy for women’s issues, more collaboration among women, greater bipartisan effort, and—ultimately—more bills signed into law (sweet-cushman, 2020). what these public servants have always known about their ability to both represent a diverse set of women’s interests well and work effectively as legislators is starting to become more visible to the general public. on the heels of the 2016 presidential election came a period of hyper-focus on gender equality, women’s issues, and female candidates running for office at every level. while the phenomenon benefitted primarily democratic women, the 2018 midterm election was record breaking for women running and winning across the united states. women now hold 25.2% of the seats in the u.s. congress: 26 seats in the u.s. senate and 101 in the u.s. house of representatives, a historic record for both chambers (center for american women and politics 2020). at 2 jennie sweet-cushman the state level, nine women now serve as governors (tying the previous record) and hold 29.2% of the states’ legislative seats. nowhere were the increases as dramatic as in pennsylvania, a state ranked 49th overall in women’s representation prior to the 2018 election (represent women 2017). the statistics read like a laundry list of dismal attributes. pennsylvania has (still) never elected a woman to the u.s. senate or as governor. the 114th and 115th congresses had no women in the state’s 20-member congressional delegation. the state’s legislature ranked 39th in the nation for women’s representation (center for american women and politics 2018), with almost no women in leadership on either side of the aisle. of the state’s 67 counties, 32 of them fail to have even one woman serving on its legislative body (pennsylvania center for women and politics 2016). school boards in pennsylvania are comprised of only 37% women (pennsylvania center for women and politics 2014), whereas nationally women have been near gender parity for many years. however, the 2018 election represented something of a “pink wave” (for lack of a better term). the general assembly saw notable increases. women now hold 13 seats of the 50-member state senate and 54 seats in the 203member state house chamber—26% of the state legislature, an all-time high. in another historic first, four women (all democrats) were elected to the state’s congressional delegation. more women than ever ran for political office in the state, and more women than ever won political office. nonetheless, in virtually every type of political office in the state, men continue to hold about 80% of the seats. while theories abound as to why women are generally underrepresented in american politics, why it is so profoundly bad in pennsylvania is another question altogether. some answers can be found on the institutional level, such as the daunting travel distance to harrisburg (silbermann 2015) and the professionalism and full-time operation of the general assembly (thomas 1996). some blame likely belongs with the state’s traditional political culture (hill 1981) and, in particular, the parties’ traditional political culture (freeman 1986), which certainly contributes to: (1) issues surrounding demand for female candidates (sanbonmatsu 2002; crowder-meyer 2013; also both brown and weikert in this issue); (2) the likelihood that women in the state see themselves as potential candidates (fox and lawless 2005; sweet cushman 2018); and (3) whether voters have an affinity for female candidates (sanbonmatsu 2006; dolan 2014; bauer 2015). this issue of commonwealth recognizes that gender is increasingly important in pennsylvania politics for voters, party elites, candidates, and the actions of our elected officials. we explore each of these aspects in this issue. introduction to the special issue on women in pennsylvania politics 3 sarah niebler and a. lanethea mathews-schultz analyze pennsylvania exit poll data they collected in both 2016 and 2018 to explore patterns in voting decision-making. they find, much like broader research on vote choice, that political party is the major driver of attitudes toward female candidates. however, more nuanced attitudes about women in politics are conditioned by gender, with women of both parties being more likely than men to see gender as playing a role in women’s political representation. this research provides rich insight into what drives pennsylvania voters and how their views of politics may be influenced by their gender and their views of women in politics. one of their findings is that there is significant belief (30% or more) in pennsylvania’s electorate, across party and gender, that female candidates get less support from party leaders. dana brown tackles precisely this problem in her qualitative exploration of party leaders’ approach to candidate recruitment. we know from previous research that candidate recruitment is frequently a gendered selection process. across more than 30 interviews with county party chairs and vice chairs of both the republican and democratic parties, brown identifies a mixed approach to recruitment, all of which predominately leads to the recruitment of male candidates. as she writes, “only one county party chair spoke of intentionally including women as part of the pool of candidates” (this issue, 48). how then did the 2018 midterm elections result in such a marked increase in the number of women running (and winning) political office in the commonwealth, and is it likely to continue into 2020 and beyond? joshua weikert interviewed female candidates who sought political office in 2018 to get a sense of how they were recruited, what their motivations were, and how persistent they were. in doing so, he hopes to determine whether the “pink wave” of 2018 was another singular “year of the woman” (like 1992), or a continuing trend in pennsylvania politics. his findings are encouraging. the candidates—both successful and unsuccessful—whom he interviewed reported some success in volunteering as candidates or being recruited by the party and a marked intent to stay engaged in politics by recruiting others or running again in the future. weikert’s findings are most encouraging given the compelling evidence that gender parity in representation is important from a democratic perspective: when people feel they are represented in their government, they are more likely to trust that government (mansbridge 1999; gay 2002). given the historic low of american trust in government, a mere 17% of citizens according to pew research center (2019), increased representation of women must be perceived as a move in the right direction. there are also more applied reasons why women’s underrepresentation may be of concern. when women’s voices 4 jennie sweet-cushman aren’t part of the conversation, public policy is often created that doesn’t consider their unique lived experiences. furthermore, women frequently bring a unique leadership and governance style to their roles as elected officials (eagly, johannesen-schmidt, and van engen 2003; schneider et al. 2016). the legislators i interviewed in the general assembly all agreed that women approached their jobs in a distinct, positive way (sweet-cushman 2020). benjamin melusky in his article offers a high-profile example of precisely why women’s representation can have broad and meaningful consequences in the realm of public policy. drawing on gender role socialization theory, melusky demonstrates how the presence of women, with their differently socialized legislating style, impacts the state budget process. he finds that this frequently divisive battle in the state legislature is made easier by compromise-inclined female legislators and concludes that the annual process would benefit from the continued addition of female legislators to the body. presumably, so too would other lawmaking processes. it bears repeating: never in the commonwealth’s history has there been a female governor or u.s. senator. that should be shocking to those who call the keystone state home. the exit polls conducted by niebler and mathewsschultz reveal just how ill-informed voters are about women’s underrepresentation—only 8% accurately identified how many women were in the state’s congressional delegation. the authors included in this issue draw attention to the obstacles to electing more women, particularly the role of pennsylvania’s strong political parties. as niebler and mathews-schultz demonstrate, that partisan attachment strongly influences vote choice. if, as brown finds, women are typically not inherently part of party recruitment processes, there will be fewer women on the partisan ballot to choose from when voters approach with their partisan lens. demand for female candidates is unlikely to change. however, as weikert reveals, supply of female candidates very well might change. many of the 2018 candidates who ran initiated their own candidacies, effectively working around the gendered system of recruitment that brown’s interviews describe. while it isn’t clear whether these women received the type of support they needed from their party after they initiated their candidacies, they were clearly very successful in 2018 and, as weikert reports, they remain motivated to promote other candidates (women candidates, perhaps) and to stay engaged themselves. ultimately, electing more women just for the sake of electing more women isn’t necessarily anyone’s goal. the broader point is that when women are underrepresented, women’s needs are underrepresented in policymaking and women’s strengths in governance are also underrepresented. melusky gives introduction to the special issue on women in pennsylvania politics 5 us but one example, the state legislative budget process, in which all pennsylvanians benefit when women are at the table, but it is not hard to imagine that more collaborative, collegial, and bipartisan environments would benefit other policy areas as well. future elections may reveal whether pennsylvania voters come to agree. references bauer, nichole m. 2015. “emotional, sensitive, and unfit for office? gender stereotype activation and support female candidates.” political psychology 36 (december): 691–708. center for american women and politics. 2018. “women in state legislatures, 2018.” available at https://cawp.rutgers.edu/women-state-legislature-2018. ———. 2020. “women in the u.s. congress, 2020.” available at https://cawp.rutgers.edu/ women-us-congress-2020. crowder-meyer, melody. 2013. “gendered recruitment without trying: how local party recruiters affect women’s representation.” politics & gender 9 (december): 390– 413. dolan, kathy. 2014. when does gender matter?: women candidates and gender stereotypes in american elections. new york: oxford university press. eagly, alice h., mary c. johannesen-schmidt, and marloes l. van engen. 2003. “transformational, transactional, and laissez-faire leadership styles: a meta-analysis comparing women and men.” psychological bulletin 129 (july): 569–591. fox, richard l., and jennifer l. lawless. 2005. “to run or not to run for office: explaining nascent political ambition.” american journal of political science  49 (july): 642–659. freeman, jo. 1986. “the political culture of the democratic and republican parties.” political science quarterly 101 (3): 327–356. gay, claudine. 2002. “spirals of trust? the effect of descriptive representation on the relationship between citizens and their government.” american journal of political science 46 (october): 717–732. hill, david b. 1981. “political culture and female political representation.” the journal of politics 43 (february): 159–168. mansbridge, jane. 1999. “should blacks represent blacks and women represent women? a contingent ‘yes.’” the journal of politics 61 (august): 628–657. pennsylvania center for women and politics. 2014. “fact sheet.” ———. 2016. “fact sheet.” pew research center. 2019. public trust in government: 1958–2019. available at https:// www.people-press.org/2019/04/11/public-trust-in-government-1958-2019/. represent women. 2017. “gender parity index.” available at https://www.represent women.org/gender_parity_index. sanbonmatsu, kira. 2002. “gender stereotypes and vote choice.” american journal of political science 46 (2002): 20–34. ———. 2006. “do parties know that ‘women win’? party leader beliefs about women’s electoral chances.” politics & gender 2 (december): 431–450. schneider, monica c., mirya r. holman, amanda b. diekman, and thomas mcandrew. 2016. “power, conflict, and community: how gendered views of political power influence women’s political ambition.” political psychology 37 (august): 515–531. 6 jennie sweet-cushman silbermann, rachel. 2015. “gender roles, work-life balance, and running for office.” quarterly journal of political science 10 (june): 123–153. sweet-cushman, jennie. 2018. “where does the pipeline get leaky? the progressive ambition of school board members and personal and political network recruitment.” politics, groups, and identities. doi: 10.1080/21565503.2018.1541417. ———. 2020. “gendered legislative effectiveness in state legislatures: the case of pennsylvania.” in politicking while female: the political life of women, ed. nichole bauer. baton rouge: louisiana state university press. thomas, sue. 1996. “why gender matters: the perceptions of women officeholders.” women & politics 17 (1): 27–53. jennie sweet-cushman is an associate professor of political science at chatham university, where from 2013 to 2019 she also served as the assistant director of the pennsylvania center for women and politics and was awarded the buhl professorship in 2020. her research focuses on women’s political ambition and representation in the united states as well as gender equity in academia. her recent work has appeared in ps: political science & politics; politics, groups, and identities; and politics and the life sciences; and her ongoing project on the first-in-the-nation majority-female nevada state legislature was awarded the 2019 carrie chapman catt prize for research in women and politics. she was the 2020 recipient of the apsa cq press award for teaching innovation. commonwealth a journal of political science published by the pennsylvania political science association vol. 17, no. 1, 2015 © copyright 2015 by the pennsylvania political science association issn 0890-2410. i commonwealth a journal of political science editor in chief j. wesley leckrone, widener university book review editor/associate editor thomas j. baldino, wilkes university associate editors michelle atherton, temple university christopher borick, muhlenberg college paula holoviak, kutztown university joseph mclaughlin, temple university managing editor michael e. cassidy, temple university editorial advisory board bruce caswell, rowan university beverly cigler, pennsylvania state university harrisburg richardson dilworth, drexel university john kennedy, west chester university john kincaid, lafayette college david y. miller, university of pittsburgh joseph marbach, georgian court university megan mullin, duke university richard stafford, carnegie mellon university copy editor barbara crawford editorial assistant nicole crossey, widener university founding editor emeritus donald g. tannenbaum, gettysburg college editors emeritus thomas j. baldino, wilkes university gerard j. fitzpatrick, ursinus college ii pennsylvania political science association officers and executive council 2015–16 president christopher borick muhlenberg college first vice president second vice president steven peterson lanethea mathews-schultz pennsylvania state university, harrisburg muhlenberg college treasurer secretary steven b. lem paula holoviak kutztown university kutztown university executive council 2013–16 term joseph mclaughlin ayesha ray temple university kings college 2014–17 term michelle demary kyle kreider susquehanna university wilkes university 2015–18 term michelle atherton michael greenberg temple university shippensburg university ex officio members past president past president brooke harlowe stanley berard lock haven university lock haven university editorial staff of commonwealth: a journal of political science editor-in-chief j. wesley leckrone widener university associate editor & associate editor & book review editor special issue editor thomas j. baldino donald tannenbaum wilkes university gettysburg college editor emeritus gerard j. fitzpatrick ursinus college iii advertising, reprint information, and rates are available from the ppsa treasurer, dr. steve lem (dept. of political science and public administration, p.o. box 730, kutztown university, kutztown, pa 19530). changes of address should be sent to dr. lem. postmaster: send notification of undelivered journals to: dr. steve lem, dept. of political science and public administration, p.o. box 730, kutztown university, kutztown, pa 19530. second class postage paid at harrisburg, pa and at additional mailing offices. copyright 2015 by the pennsylvania political science association. back issues are available online for viewing and private individual use at http://www.papolisci.org/journal-commonwealth/. all rights reserved. iv contents volume 17, number 1 2015 isbn 0890-2410 about the authors ...................................................................................... vi commonwealth matters by j. wesley leckrone, editor-in-chief .......... vii commonwealth: genesis by donald tannenbaum, editor emeritus ..... ix articles local government mandates in pennsylvania: how ‘burdensome’ are they? paula a. duda holoviak ............................................................... 1 fmla in pa: analysis of family and medical leave policy in the state jennie sweet-cushman ............................................................... 14 the rise and fall of pennsylvania’s voter identification law max guirguis .............................................................................. 35 electoral vote allocation and pennsylvania: how and why we should embrace the status quo heather frederick and terrance kibble ..................................... 58 v book reviews adams, carolyn t. from the outside in: suburban elites, third-sector organizations, and the reshaping of philadelphia. review by michelle j. atherton ...................................................... 82 tarr, joel a., ed. devastation and renewal: an environmental history of pittsburgh and its region review by brian whitman .............................................................. 83 bumsted, brad. keystone corruption: a pennsylvania insiders view of a state government gone wrong. review by christopher p. borick ..................................................... 85 baer, john. on the front lines of pennsylvania politics: twenty-five years of keystone reporting. review by kalen m.a. churcher .................................................... 86 ecenbarger, william. kids for cash: two judges, thousands of children, and a $2.6 million kickback scheme. review by joseph sabino mistick ................................................... 88 gullan, harold i. toomey’s triumph: inside a key senate campaign. review by nathan r. shrader ......................................................... 89 vi about the authors heather frederick, ph.d., is an associate professor of political science at slippery rock university. she received her doctorate in political science from west virginia university and her ba from hollins university where she majored in philosophy and communications with a minor in women’s studies. she regularly teaches courses in american government, including the presidency and american national government. dr. frederick also serves as the pre-law coordinator for the university and offers courses in the courts, civil liberties, civil rights and constitutional law. max guirguis, ph.d., is a professor of political science at shepherd university in west virginia, where he teaches courses in constitutional law and international affairs. his research focuses primarily on constitutional law topics in which he has published several articles in academic journals, including stetson law review and journal of technology law and policy. paula a. duda holoviak, ph.d., is a professor in the department of political science and public administration at kutztown university where she also serves as the program coordinator for the master of public administration program. she specializes in pennsylvania politics, state and local government and rural economic and community development. terrance kibble, is a senior at slippery rock university majoring in political science. he intends to pursue a career in law and hails from pittsburgh, pa. jennie sweet-cushman, ph.d., is an assistant professor of political science and assistant director of the pennsylvania center for women and politics at chatham university. she received her doctoral degree from wayne state university and her research focuses on women, politics, and public policy with a particular emphasis on political ambition and candidate emergence. cw_18.1_final_i-vi_1-103_061716.indd what would student-based allocation mean for pennsylvania school districts? marguerite roza georgetown university amanda warco georgetown university in recent months, policymakers across the country have been exploring state school financing formulas with the goals of promoting equity, transparency, and adequacy. toward that end, state leaders are considering a new model for disbursing state education funds called “student-based allocation” (sba)—one that would allocate funds on the basis of students. in fact, many states already have some sort of formula using students as the basis, although in practice, most essentially use a hybrid set of allocations such that the portion of funds allocated on the basis of students varies substantially across states. this analysis of 14 states shows that among the sampled states, between 0 and 85% of all state and local funds is allocated on the basis of students. in pennsylvania, after operating in the absence of a formal allocation formula for several years, the basic education funding commission (befc) was tasked with recommending a new finance scheme for funding the state’s schools. in this paper, we outline the rationale behind sba and investigate the extent to which the befc proposal would allocate funds on the basis of students. one of a state’s primary responsibilities is to divide up the public funds for k–12 schooling. each state has a set of finance policies that together determine how the state and local funds are allocated so that districts can then apply them to schools and classrooms. different states commonwealth, volume 18, issue 1 (june 2016). © 2016 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/cjppp.v18i1.82. all rights reserved. 20 marguerite roza and amanda warco use a host of variables, formulas, and other mechanisms to determine how much each district receives. because of the tremendous political lift involved in changing state formulas, they don’t change much from year to year. rather, states tend to layer new program funds on to the old model, or make minor tweaks here or there to address the greatest pain points. eventually, a formula may seem broken enough that a state tackles it from top to bottom. such appears to be the case in pennsylvania, where a state commission (called the basic education funding commission, or the befc) was tasked with developing a whole new state education funding formula. of interest in pennsylvania is a mechanism called “student-based allocation” (sba), also known as weighted student funding (wsf). with sba, state (or state and local) funds are deployed on the basis of students and student types (poverty, disability, etc.). sba has garnered interest among state leaders largely for its promise to improve equity and transparency, while ensuring that districts with higher needs students receive appropriately higher allocations. further, as state leaders face both increasing costs and highly constrained resources, some state leaders are seeking sba as a means to facilitate greater productivity and financial sustainability in their state education systems. in this paper, we outline the rationale behind sba and investigate the befc proposal against that rationale. drawing on data from pennsylvania and other states’ sba systems, we compare pennsylvania’s current and proposed allocations to those of 14 other states. and we analyze what the befc proposal would mean for the relative share of state funding allocated according to student versus district characteristics. state leaders look to sba to enhance equity and productivity the specifics of state funding formulas vary widely. but what many states have in common is incremental layers of formula iterations that can unintentionally work to create inequities among districts, hinder efficient use of public funds, and inhibit system-wide productivity. as states rethink their allocation systems, many are considering student-based allocation as a way to tackle these three challenges. student-based allocation emerged in the united states two decades ago as a means for large districts to better deploy funds to schools.1 the funding formula is student driven: a fixed dollar amount is set for each student type and funds flow on the basis of students, with higher-needs students generating incrementally more money. the funds remain flexible so that each locale can spend them as needed. this formula departs from traditional district what would student-based allocation mean for pennsylvania school districts? 21 figure 1. sba can be used to deploy funds at different levels in the system. (image created by authors.) allocations that tend to assign positions to schools (one teacher for every 25 students, one counselor for every 300 students, etc.). big districts like houston, boston, baltimore, denver, cleveland, chicago, and others now use sba at the district level to distribute funds to schools. more recently, state leaders have taken an interest in using sba to push state (or combined state and local) funds to districts (or directly to schools) as illustrated in figure 1. while some states do allocate a foundational per-pupil payment (a foundation formula), what sets sba apart is that student need drives the variation in the fixed per-student amounts paid out. and that weighted formula replaces a range of ways that states are funneling dollars to districts and schools beyond just their basic formula. for instance, some states drive funding for high-needs students through categorical allocations or designated program funding (such as funds for reading coaches, graduation specialists, and so on). separate state allocations are often layered on for designated efforts for stem initiatives, teacher bonuses, ap coursework, textbooks, and much more, creating opaque and complex allocations that may work to undo any equitable distribution created by the basic formula. other states lean on funding formula mechanisms like hold-harmless provisions for enrollment decline,2 adjustments for size and urbanicity, or to offset charter school growth. several states like delaware and idaho don’t use a foundation formula at all, but rather allocate staff positions based on student enrollment 22 marguerite roza and amanda warco (and then reimburse districts for actual salaries of the allowable staff counts) or use some other arrangement altogether (like a grandfathering formula, where all districts get some percentage of their previous year’s allocation regardless of changes in the number of students served or the mix of student needs).3 sba has surfaced as a solution to frustrations with existing state allocation formulas, which have been criticized for being •  complex, opaque, and unfair •  too prescriptive, inflexible and onerous in terms of compliance •   inequitable because districts get uneven revenues (often driven by  the interplay of local and state monies) and districts with greater student needs don’t receive sufficiently greater resources to meet their students’ challenges •   inefficient and unproductive, since current formulas protect districts from making needed adjustments to changing enrollments or conditions proponents say sba simultaneously addresses the complexity (district leaders know that an english language learner will generate $x allocation, a homeless student will generate $y), f lexibility (schools can individualize resources to match their staff and students’ strengths and needs), and equity concerns (students with greater needs trigger larger allocations). further, sba is thought to replace policies that are considered inefficient with policies that promote productivity-enhancing adaptations. a criticism of some existing funding formulas is that they fund “phantom students” by delivering more funds to districts than would be justified by their actual enrollment (roza and fullerton 2013). these policies can take the form of •  extra funds for declining enrollment districts •  offsets for districts that lose students to charters •  small districts subsidies •  minimum allotments for categorical allocations in each case, the affected districts receive funds in excess of what they would receive if only the students on their rolls were funded. all told, these kinds of provisions drive more funds to some districts than are warranted under the total state enrollment figures and corresponding lower per pupil allotments for all other districts (assuming limited state funds). hold-harmless provisions, for instance, are also thought to insulate district leaders from making the adaptive (and therefore productivity-enhancing) changes (such what would student-based allocation mean for pennsylvania school districts? 23 as right-sizing, but also adopting new delivery models) needed to better meet the size of the shrinking student rolls. in other words, the policies intended to “protect” these districts may be enabling a more sluggish response to changes that should be happening with enrollment fluctuations. nudging districts toward greater adaptability—the thinking goes—is important in a labor-intensive sector where costs will likely outstrip revenues in coming years. with labor costs rising faster than revenue streams, schooling could suffer from steady decline over successive years of incremental cuts, provided that services remain stuck in a fixed delivery model that doesn’t adapt to the kinds of changes that have fueled productivity improvements in other service sectors (roza 2013). in order to make productivity improvements, districts need to seek new delivery models that allow schools to do the most with scarce, but fairly allocated, resources. in california, state leaders recently replaced a reportedly complex and onerous system of categorical funding with a student-based formula called the local control funding formula (lcff).4 for each district, the state determines the target spending, based on the mix of students and student types, and then applies the expected local funds toward that target. state funds then make up the difference. (table 1 shows how much is allocated for each student by grade level and need.) districts then have f lexibility in how they apply funds, and then own the corresponding responsibility for improved outcomes. lcff isn’t a pure sba model, however, as state leaders did leave a pool of funds in a hold-harmless provision to protect some districts from large losses in the first few years of implementation. table 1: california’s student-based allocation formula student types* allocation grades k–3 $7,557 grades 4–6 $6,947 grades 7–8 $7,154 grades 9–12 $8,505 limited english +20% poverty† +20% foster youth +20% source: data from california department of education, “local control funding formula overview,” last reviewed november 25, 2015, accessed february 11, 2014. * in california, students receive the weight only once even if they fall into multiple categories. often, in other state formulas, students receive the weight amount for each category that applies to them. †high-poverty districts are also awarded a 50% weight for each poor student above 55%. 24 marguerite roza and amanda warco a similar model was proposed in colorado, but the colorado formula was tied to a ballot measure that was defeated at the ballot box in 2013.5 in the last three years, leaders in ohio, illinois, georgia, arizona, and delaware have also made proposals to advance student-based allocation, and in some cases those are still pending.6 concerns about flexibility and districts’ adaptability to changes this policy proposal is not without skeptics. some worry that with greater local flexibility, districts would still yield to pressures from advantaged parents, unions, or other forces to spend money unwisely or in ways that ill serve the most disadvantaged students. others remain concerned that, since a student-based formula only funds students, it isn’t sensitive enough to differences in districts created by nonstudent factors. for instance, sba formulas don’t take into account the historic district enrollments (for shrinking districts), charters, small size, high transportation costs, etc. skeptics worry that districts with these and other characteristics may be less equipped to serve students with the available funding. and finally, some worry that, if not clearly defined or limited, districts may have an incentive to over-identify certain types of students. pennsylvania’s befc tasked with devising a more sustainable state allocation formula plenty has been written about how pennsylvania’s existing formula isn’t a formula at all.7 at one point, pennsylvania did have a student-based formula on the books, but it hasn’t been used in several years. rather, recent years’ state funding has been allocated by just adding a percentage each year to whatever each district received the year before, regardless of any changes in student rolls. not surprisingly, growing districts are seeing per pupil allocations fall, while districts that have lost students are now funded at higher per pupil allocations. other changes in student needs are also not considered, including the rapid rise in the percentage of students in poverty. as the befc reports, the percentage of students eligible for free or reduced lunch has risen from 35% to 48% over the last decade (basic education funding commission 2015). given the higher needs associated with these student characteristics, districts are understandably concerned about a state formula that ignores these changing student needs. much of the back and forth in pennsylvania has also concerned the overall level of state funding and its interactions with local money. this paper what would student-based allocation mean for pennsylvania school districts? 25 doesn’t tackle the question of how much money was or would be put into the state formula, but rather focuses on the means of deploying it. however, also at issue is the constant worry that state sources will remain insufficient to meet the rising cost factors in pennsylvania’s districts. in pennsylvania, like in other states, labor costs are outpacing state revenues, forcing tradeoffs within districts that put pressure on the financing model. for instance, from 2004 to 2008, the benefits load on salaries (a number that should remain fixed if benefits were growing at the same rate as salaries) jumped from 30% to 37%.8 with cost pressures mounting, and given the constrained nature of state funds, there is pressure for the state system to fund schooling in a way that helps promote productivity improvements. the befc proposal would deploy funds by both student and nonstudent factors given the above conditions, the befc considered sba for the state. in the summary report, the befc makes a proposal for a hybrid state allocation formula that involves divvying up state monies in ways that include elements of student-based allocation, while also driving a portion of funds to districts on the basis of nonstudent factors:9 a. student-based factors include poverty and english proficiency. as the befc has outlined, poverty is a student factor relevant to learning. the befc’s formula includes three types of poverty weights to take into account varying levels and concentration of poverty. similarly, students with limited english proficiency are awarded an additional 60% allocation. b. the formula recognizes local revenue capacity. whereas a sba model could include local funds in its generation of a per pupil allocation, the befc formula applies a local income and capacity index (an index designed by the befc that takes into account district median income and property tax wealth), which works similarly to channel more funds to those districts with less local wealth. c. th e befc’s formula insulates districts from changing enrollment and corresponding financial implications. rather than base allocations on actual current year student counts—as a pure sba formula would—the befc bases allocation on a rolling three-year average. in doing so, districts with declining enrollment are funded for more students than actually attend the district, while some are not receiving funds for all the students on their rolls in a given year. 26 marguerite roza and amanda warco the befc’s rationale is to protect declining enrollment districts, but at the same time, that adjustment for “phantom” students means declining enrollment districts aren’t making the year-toyear adaptations justified by their enrollment changes. d. the befc channels higher per pupil amounts according to district characteristics. in the sba design, district characteristics aren’t weighted, only student ones. the befc formula, however, factors in some district characteristics to its formula, including size, sparsity, and attendance at charters.10 the result is that the dollar amount generated for a third grade student with limited english proficiency in one district is different from that generated to a student with the same characteristics in another district. the befc proposal yields 37% of funds driven on the basis of pupils the befc proposed formula, like those in other states, contains some elements of a student-based allocation system, and yet has some funding factors that don’t involve student types. given that most states are some hybrid of different funding formula types,11 our team has been conducting an ongoing study (thus far in 14 states) to measure the portion of state and local monies delivered via student-based allocation.12 measuring progress toward full student-based allocation can inform state policymakers as they take stock of the current finance policies and set goals for future policies. the study analyzed all state and local funds in each state and determined the portion of any state and local funds deployed with a student-based formula. to be considered student based, the allocation had to deploy a fixed amount of money on the basis of students or student types. the study considered all state and local public funds for k–12 education, excluding any long-term obligations like debt for facilities.13 the study then investigated the percentage that would be allocated if pennsylvania swapped its current allocations and instead deployed all its funds using the befc-proposed formula.14 figure 2 captures the findings for each of the 14 states including pennsylvania’s allocations both in the current form and using the befc formula for all allocations. as is evident in the figure, states vary widely on the portion of funds delivered on a student basis. new jersey, california, and minnesota all distribute more than 75% of the state and local funds on a student basis. delaware, idaho, tennessee, and washington have low percentages, since these states deliver funding primarily through a staffing formula. at present, none of the funds in pennsylvania’s existing model are delivwhat would student-based allocation mean for pennsylvania school districts? 27 ered via sba (hence the 0%), as the state is essentially utilizing a hold-harmless mechanism. if the state instead adopted the befc formula for all its funding, that percentage would jump to 37%. relative to the other sba states, that figure is low, although a substantial increase over its current figure of 0%. why does the befc proposal only yield 37% of the funds delivered via sba? the nonstudent factors, such as charters and district size, are partly to blame. a pure student-based formula would ignore district size and the school type, and fund only the students. the responsibility for the district, then, would be to craft delivery models that were more suited for smaller enrollments or could transfer those same per pupil allotments to charters. some schools already do this, relying on staff with multiple roles. for instance, a principal of a small school might also teach a class, or instead of a full time gym teacher or nurse, the school might contract with a personal trainer or nursing service in order to buy services in smaller increments. another reason that the befc formula doesn’t yield a higher percentage of funds delivered via sba is that its basis is on the three-year rolling enrollment average and not actual current year enrollment. and finally, the befc doesn’t use a student basis for counting local funds toward its formula allocation (rather, it uses a local capacity index). the result is that local funds together with state funds don’t generate a predictable dollar amount for a particular student type. that dollar figure will continue to vary by district. note: reported figures augment analysis initially reported by miller, roza, and simburg 2014 with authors’ analysis based on publicly available state and local education funding sources, legislative language, and allocation reports. figure 2. portions of state and local education funds delivered via sba. (image created by authors.) 28 marguerite roza and amanda warco a window of opportunity in pennsylvania the reason that state education finance formulas stay in place for decades is that the politics are challenging. education tends to be the largest item in state budgets, and every locale has something to gain or lose with a potential formula overhaul. at the same time, when the window for change opens, legislators have an enormous responsibility as the next formula will likely be in place for decades into the future. no one can say for certain what schooling will look like two decades from now, let alone understand how cost structures will be redefined. for instance, will population density be a moot factor given technological changes that might be able to group students in a shared course miles apart? will the school year be redefined and staffing roles dramatically altered? for state leaders, designing an allocation system amid such uncertainty is tricky, particularly given that so many years may pass before there is the opportunity to modify the system. but the one thing we know will still be there in two decades are the students. aligning money with the students offers some promise that a finance formula will be able to stand the test of time. as pennsylvania’s leaders continue to explore solutions to its ongoing state financing issues, this is the moment to take stock of both the opportunity and the extent to which proposals meet the state’s long-term goals. we can expect that leaders will have different opinions on what’s best for pennsylvania, and for how districts should be expected to operate with public funds. this analysis compares the existing and proposed state models with those in other states, to illustrate the range of solutions being generated in states across the country. as leaders size up their options and make decisions about the future of pennsylvania’s education-finance formula, understanding the scope and implications of the proposals before them is critically important. notes 1. for a more complete history and description on wsf, see roza 2014. 2. here we refer to “hold-harmless provisions” as provisions that states include to prevent a year-to-year decrease in funds to a district. most often such hold-harmless provisions work to ensure that a district’s total funding level doesn’t dip below the previous years’ level, despite decreases in actual student enrollment. for further discussion of the impact of this type of hold-harmless, please see “funding phantom students” (roza and fullerton 2013). 3. for instance, pennsylvania’s formula does not take into account enrollment at all, but rather works as a uniform percentage adjustment to the previous year’s funding level. 4. see freedberg 2013. 5. simpson 2013. 6. see, for example, smith and snell 2015 and illinois business journal 2015. what would student-based allocation mean for pennsylvania school districts? 29 7. for one example, see “pennsylvania’s historic school funding problem” (pennsylvania 2015). 8. author’s calculations based on national center for education statistics data from 2004 to 2008. for additional discussion of rising labor costs see the befc final report including testimony from marguerite roza on page 24. 9. pennsylvania created a similar task force in 2013 to study the state’s approach to special education funding. that task force ultimately made recommendations to use a formula that would create three funding tiers for special education students (based on what districts had been spending on those students in previous years) and adjust that funding according to district-based characteristics. in 2014–2015, the state amended the funding formula to allocate $19.8 million through the new formula. since the formula amounts were tied to the previous years’ funding levels, it is not student based. the befc was tasked with revising the basic education funding calculation only, which does not include the special education funding. 10. charter schools are public schools that operate independently of school districts. approaches to funding charter schools vary across states. in pennsylvania, charter schools receive their funding through the district. befc mistakenly considers percentage of district attendance in a charter in their weighted student formula as a “student” characteristic, rather than a characteristic of the district. 11. hawaii is the closest to a pure sba model, although the state has only a single district. 12. see an earlier reporting on a portion of these findings in miller, roza, and simburg 2014. 13. federal funds, which represent 9–12% of total k–12 revenues, were excluded from this analysis, as were funds for long-term debt and capital costs. 14. note that at the time of writing the legislature was not considering adopting the befc formula for all its funds, so the model here is a hypothetical policy model for future years. references basic education finance commission. 2015. report and recommendations. http://basic educationfundingcommission.pasenategop.com/files/2014/08/final-report-061915 -.pdf (march 8, 2016). freedberg, louis. 2013. “reform of california’s school finance system likely.” edsource, june 4. http://edsource.org/2013/governor-brown-eyes-yet-another-education-victory /32907 (march 8, 2016). illinois business journal. 2015. “manar, others detail proposed changes to education funding in illinois.” february 7. http://www.ibjonline.com/localheadlines/1670manar-others-detail-proposed-changes-to-education-funding-in-illinois (march 8, 2016). miller, larry, marguerite roza, and suzanne simburg. 2014. “funding for students’ sake: how to stop financing tomorrow’s schools based on yesterday’s priorities.” the sea of the future 3 (may): 19–31. pennsylvania school funding project. 2015. pennsylvania’s historic school funding problem. http://www.paschoolfunding.org/the-problem/pennsylvania%e2%80%99s-his toric-school-funding-problem/ (march 8, 2016). roza, marguerite. 2013. “leveraging productivity for progress: an imperative for states.” the sea of the future 2 (may): 8–17. 30 marguerite roza and amanda warco ———. 2014. “weighted student funding.” in encyclopedia of education economics and finance, ed. dominic j. brewer and lawrence o. picus. los angeles: sage publications, 835–838. roza, marguerite, and jon fullerton. 2013. “funding phantom students.” education next 13 (3): 8–16. simpson, kevin. 2013. “voters reject big tax hike, school finance measure amendment 66.” denver post, november 5. http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ ci_24462841/voters-reject-big-tax-hike-school-finance-measure (march 8, 2016). smith, aaron, and lisa snell. 2015. “moving toward transparent and student-based funding reform in georgia.” georgia public policy foundation, december 4. http:// www.georgiapolicy.org/2015/12/moving-toward-transparent-and-student-basedfunding-reform-in-georgia/ (march 8, 2016). commonwealth: a journal of pennsylvania politics and policy frontmatter commonweal a journal of pennsylvania politics and p th olicy editor in chief j. wesley leckrone, widener university managing editor michelle j. atherton, temple university book review editor/ associate editor thomas j. baldino, wilkes university associate editors christopher borick, muhlenberg college paula a. duda holoviak, kutztown university joseph p. mclaughlin, jr., temple university editorial advisory board bruce caswell, rowan university beverly a. cigler, pennsylvania state university, harrisburg richardson dilworth, drexel university john j. kennedy, west chester university john kincaid, lafayette college joseph marbach, georgian court university david y. miller, university of pittsburgh megan mullin, duke university richard a. stafford, carnegie mellon university copy editor barbara crawford editorial assistant catherine long, widener university founding editor emeritus donald g. tannenbaum, gettysburg college editors emeritus thomas j. baldino, wilkes university gerard j. fitzpatrick, ursinus college published by temple university press on behalf of the pennsylvania political science association the pennsylvania political science association founded in 1939, the pennsylvania political science association (ppsa) is the nation’s oldest state political science association. its mission has always been to promote scholarship, research, and the exchange of ideas within the pennsylvania community of political scientists. ppsa draws its membership principally from the political science and public administration faculties of pennsylvania’s public and private colleges and universities but also includes government professionals and faculty members from surrounding states. ppsa’s annual conference includes dozens of panelists covering a wide variety of subjects. while university faculty compose the vast majority of participants, legislators, legislative staff, executive officials, and undergraduates also have participated. for more information on the activities of ppsa and membership rates, please visit the association’s website at http://www.papolisci.org/. http://www.papolisci.org/%7bcomp the pennsylvania political science association officers and executive council 2017–2018 president steven peterson pennsylvania state university, harrisburg first vice president a. lanethea mathews schultz muhlenberg college second vice president michael greenberg shippensburg university treasurer steven b. lem kutztown university secretary paula a. duda holoviak kutztown university executive council 2015–2018 2016–2019 2017–2020 michelle j. atherton temple university heather frederick slippery rock university joseph p. mclaughlin, jr. temple university jennie sweet-cushman chatham college justin deplato robert morris university sarah niebler dickinson college ex officio members immediate past president christopher borick muhlenberg college past president brooke harlowe lock haven university past president stanley berard lock haven university editorial staff of commonwealth: a journal of pennsylvania politics and policy editor in chief j. wesley leckrone widener university book review editor & editor emeritus thomas j. baldino wilkes university editor emeritus gerard j. fitzpatrick ursinus college founding editor emeritus donald g. tannenbaum gettysburg college pennsylvania policy forum c ommonwealth collaborates with the pennsylvania policy forum to plan special issues and attract high-quality content to the journal. the forum is a consortium of faculty members and academic and policy institute leaders from pennsylvania colleges and universities who share an interest in generating ideas, analyses, and symposiums that might prove useful to citizens, elected officials, and civic leaders in addressing major issues confronting the commonwealth and its local governments. as educators who have helped train students for careers in public policy, members also share an interest in helping to improve the skills, knowledge, and tools of leaders in the public and civic sectors. members of the forum have expertise in public policy analysis as well as a wide range of substantive issues, including but not limited to education, transportation and public infrastructure, economic development, agriculture, energy, elections, water policy and the environment, health care, social policy, urban development, emergency management, information technology, public finance, and constitutional law. members also share an interest in improving both the policy process itself and the institutional structures through which issues and problems are addressed. forum members have contributed to public policy debates in pennsylvania, and a number have also served in state and local government and in nonprofit and civic organizations that engage in policy development and implementation. some members of the forum are associated with other academic and public policy–related organizations, but the forum itself is independent of these relationships and has no formal connections to any government entity. members obviously benefit from the intellectual resources and environments of their universities, but unless otherwise indicated, they do not act on behalf of their institutions when they sponsor forum projects. the premise of the forum is that through the consortium, members can jointly develop and sponsor nonpartisan research, symposiums, and education and training programs of value to elected officials, civic leaders, and the public and thereby enhance their ability to contribute to more intelligent and informed policy making. pennsylvania policy forum membership (2018) theodore r. alter, professor of agricultural, environmental, and regional economics, pennsylvania state university michelle j. atherton, associate director, institute for public affairs, temple university thomas j. baldino, professor of political science, wilkes university michael cassidy, adjunct instructor of political science, temple university beverly a. cigler, professor of public policy and administration, pennsylvania state university, harrisburg richardson dilworth, professor of political science and director of the center for public policy, drexel university michael r. dimino, sr., associate professor of law, widener university commonwealth law school (chair) paula a. duda holoviak, professor of political science, kutztown university mark alan hughes, professor of practice at penndesign and faculty director of the kleinman center for energy policy, university of pennsylvania john j. kennedy, professor of political science, west chester university michael king, adjunct professor, albright college and temple university, and associate professor, pennsylvania state university (retired) robin lauermann, professor of politics and international relations, messiah college j. wesley leckrone, associate professor of political science, widener university nelson lim, executive director, fels institute of government, university of pennsylvania (vice chair) joseph p. mclaughlin, jr., director of the institute for public affairs, temple university david y. miller, associate professor and director of the innovation clinic, graduate school of public and international affairs, university of pittsburgh randall m. miller, professor of history, st. joseph’s university theresa miller, director, institute of politics, university of pittsburgh joseph sabino mistick, associate professor of law, duquesne university school of law richard a. stafford, distinguished service professor of public policy, heinz college, carnegie mellon university david b. thornburgh, executive director of the committee of seventy craig wheeland, associate vice president for academic affairs and professor, villanova university contents volume 20, number 1 | 2018 | issn 2469 7672 editor’s note ■ commonwealth matters | j. wesley leckrone, editor-in-chief commonwealth forum: addressing pennsylvania’s structural budget deficit ■ revitalizing pennsylvania through government reform | bob dick ■ the continuing pennsylvania crisis in perspective | marc stier articles ■ organizational identity change in conservation law enforcement: lessons for pennsylvania | michael j. mcskimming, robert vance dunbar, and ahmet guler ■ should the philadelphia property tax classification system be modified? | jeffrey carroll and john f. mcdonald research note ■ party identification, voter attitudes, and voter behavior in new jersey and pennsylvania 1980–2012: real difference or election law mirage? | james e. vike book reviews ■ weaver, timothy p.r. blazing the neoliberal trail: urban political development in the united states and the united kingdom | michelle j. atherton ■ miller, char, ed. gifford pinchot: selected writings | j. wesley leckrone book 1.indb commonwealth forum: does pennsylvania need a large, full-time legislature? yes james madison argued that representative democracy works best when legislatures “refine and enlarge the public views.” this means that legislators from many backgrounds are chosen to bring issues of importance to government, debate them, and then produce laws in the best interests of the citizenry. including a diverse array of voices in the legislative process ensures that the consequences of legislation can be weighed in an effort to preserve everyone’s rights and interests. having a large, full-time legislature enables this to occur. pennsylvania has to balance multiple regional, ethnic, economic, and cultural interests. having more legislators ensures that this range of views is included in policy discussions. a professionalized legislature also provides an adequate salary, enabling people from all walks of life to participate in government. most people lack the wealth or a flexible schedule to be able to serve in a citizen legislature where remuneration is minimal. receiving the pay of a full-time job allows pennsylvania’s legislators to dedicate their time to matters of importance to their communities and focus on constituency service back in their districts. one final benefit of pennsylvania’s full-time legislature is the professional staff who help legislators do their jobs. the commonwealth has a number of legislative service agencies such as the legislative reference bureau, which helps members draft laws, and the legislative budget and finance committee, which provides unbiased policy research. these resources ensure legislators’ independence from the executive branch and special interests because they have access to information through their own resources. capitol and district staff also help legislators understand the needs of their constituents and help them when they encounter problems with state government. in sum, a fulltime, professional legislature serves the interests of pennsylvania citizens. no pennsylvania has the largest “full-time” legislature in the country. its 253 members are outnumbered only by new hampshire’s 424, where legislators receive just $200 every two-year session. compare that to the lowest salary of about $87,000 for pennsylvania’s general assembly. those in leadership make even more, between $99,410 and $136,094 depending on the position. the u.s. congress has just 535 members for an entire country, and other states are able to govern themselves with much smaller legislative bodies without bloated salaries. furthermore, pennsylvania’s legislature does not even meet all that regularly. session days are monday through wednesday if they even convene for that long during a week, hardly a full-time job. for the fall 2018 legislative calendar, the house met only thirteen days, and the senate convened just ten days. this is for the entirety of four months, and does not even include the fact that there were no session days throughout july and august. regular people can’t work that often and still be considered full-time employees commanding high salaries and excellent benefits, so why should those who are elected to represent their interests? research shows large legislative bodies cost more, all else equal. in particular, the size of the upper chamber contributes to higher spending. large legislatures also have more committees, thus overlapping duties and policy issues and adding to the problem of needless bureaucratic expansion. with today’s modern methods of communication, we don’t need so many so-called fulltime legislators. cutting their ranks and time on the job would save the people of pennsylvania millions and, more likely than not, lead to reduced government spending and better deliberation among the body’s fewer members. for more information american legislative exchange council (https:// www .alec .org) is a nonprofit organization of conservative state legislators and members of the private sector. they meet to draft model bills and distribute to legislators. national black caucus of state legislators (https:// nbcsl .org) serves and represents the interests of black state legislators and their constituents. it also works toward education and the sharing of relevant public policy ideas. national hispanic caucus of state legislators (https:// nhcsl .org) is a nonprofit dedicated to serving the interests of hispanic legislators in the fifty u.s. states, puerto rico, and the u.s. virgin islands. its mission is to organize its members and on behalf of the people they represent in government. national conference of state legislatures (http:// ncsl .org) is a nonpartisan organization dedicated to improving state legislatures, sharing policy innovations, and giving the states a strong voice in the federal system. from pennsylvania politics and policy: a commonwealth reader, volume 2. edited by michelle j. atherton and j. wesley leckrone (philadelphia, temple university press, 2019). physician responses to the opioid epidemic in the context of population-based pain and opioid care commonwealth, volume 20, issue 1 (2018). © 2018 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/com.v20i2-3.190. all rights reserved. physician responses to the opioid epidemic in the context of population-b ased pain and opioid care ajay d. wasan university of pittsburgh medical center, university of pittsburgh school of medicine the opioid epidemic is a multifaceted phenomenon in which the prescription of opioids for pain still plays a significant role. however, a plethora of efforts in the physician community following many years of epidemiological research regarding patterns and characteristics of prescription opioid misuse, abuse, and addiction have led to best practice guidelines agreed upon widely. adoption of these guidelines and specific changes across health care systems and in individual provider practices have resulted in improved opioid prescribing patterns, which are safer and no less effective in addressing pain. the experience at the university of pittsburgh and the university of pittsburgh medical center is highlighted as an example of progressive change to address the simultaneous epidemics of poorly controlled chronic pain affecting 100 million adults in this country and prescription opioid use disorders affecting 2.2 million adults. background in the history of medicine, most epidemics change their fundamental nature over time. for example, the hiv epidemic in the united states was spread in the 1980s through unsafe sexual practices, but later was perpetuated by the sharing of dirty needles by intravenous drug abusers. the opioid epidemic is no different—initially lying within the complex interweaving of physician responses to the opioid epidemic 123 yettobe-f ullyunderstood sociocultural issues (quinones 2015) and subsequently in the overlay of two public health challenges: the better treatment of chronic pain (affecting 100 million us adults, an epidemic in itself) and the appropriate prescribing of opioids for pain relief (national academies of sciences, engineering, and medicine 2017; institute of medicine 2011). the opioid epidemic of the past 10 years (versus the earlier epidemic of heroin addiction in the 1970s) was triggered, to some considerable extent, by the overprescribing of prescription opioids for pain, with a subsequent shift to heroin use by people without pain (national academies of sciences, engineering, and medicine 2017). in 2015, the number of opioid deaths from illicit opioids surpassed those from prescription opioids. approximately 2 million people have a prescription opioid use disorder, while substantially more use heroin (guy et al. 2017). and yet, the epidemics of chronic pain and opioid use disorder continue to be entwined, as 80% of heroin users report starting with prescription opioids, and 50% of heroin users in substance use disorder (sud) treatment report having chronic pain (national academies of sciences, engineering, and medicine 2017). provider responses there has been a range of responses from physicians to combat the environmental supply of unnecessary opioids, and in 2011 the rates of opioid prescribing for pain began to decrease, after increasing fourfold from 1999 to 2011 (frenk, porter, and paulozzi 2017). this article will summarize the responses to the opioid epidemic from those who prescribe opioids. this is referred to as the point of care of opioid prescribing, which is the most upstream part in the cascade of opioid addiction among patients with pain. the origins and sustaining factors of the epidemic are discussed in detail elsewhere in this issue of commonwealth. the problems associated with the overprescribing of prescription opioids, primarily for chronic noncancer pain, have been described in the medical literature for over a decade through scores of reviews and research publications. there is a fundamental distinction between pain due to cancer (which is known to respond very well to opioids) and pain not due to cancer, such as chronic low back pain or pain from nerve injury (neuropathic pain). one of the most influential reports was a review in the new england journal of medicine in 2003 by ballantyne and mao who described many of the fundamental uncertainties regarding opioid therapy for chronic noncancer pain, such as the unknown degree of efficacy, the development of tolerance (which means less painrelieving effects of the opioid over time), and the 124 ajay d. wasan emerging rates of addiction (ballantyne and mao 2003). concurrently, with fda approval in 1996 of purdue pharma’s oxycontin for pain, prescriptions of oxycodone increased for noncancer pain, which became a widespread practice in certain parts of the country, such as appalachia. subsequently, reports of addiction to oxycontin and diversion, from states such as west virginia, frequently appeared in newspapers and magazines and on television. the medical research community took note of these issues and began studying patients who were prescribed opioids for noncancer pain and examining who was more likely to misuse opioids (such as selfmedicating by taking extra for pain or concurrent use of illegal drugs), abuse them (such as mixing them with alcohol to become intoxicated), or become addicted (a total loss of control in taking opioids and an incessant drive to obtain more, regardless of the negative consequences). misuse, abuse, and addiction lie on a continuum of severity and are labeled opioid use disorders. misuse can lead to addiction, although the rate of progression and the incidence of progression still remain unknown. generally speaking, 40% of those who are prescribed opioids chronically for noncancer pain will misuse them, and 5%–15% will become addicted (vowles et al. 2015). to provide some context, the rate of nonadherence to medications for other chronic diseases, such as diabetes or congestive heart failure, is also 40%. for chronic pain and opioids, the problem is taking too much of the medication, and for the latter diseases, the problem is not taking the appropriate medications in the amounts and frequency prescribed. thus, one should not be surprised at the high rates of medication nonadherence in the treatment of chronic pain. the focus on identifying the characteristics of patients who misuse or become addicted to prescription opioids resulted in the identification of several risk factors that predicted opioid misuse: a prior history of abuse or addiction to controlled substances, concurrent use of illegal drugs, a family history of addictive disorders, a history of illegal activity, and untreated depression and anxiety disorders (affective disorders) (butler et al. 2004). three pillars of assessment for opioid adherence (argoff et al. 2017) 1. patient selfreport standardized scales were developed that determined the likelihood of opioid misuse (such as the current opioid misuse measure). these are patient self report checklists of problematic behaviors, such as taking more opioids than physician responses to the opioid epidemic 125 prescribed or borrowing medication from others (butler et al. 2007). scores on these measures have provided the clinician with a probability that a patient who has been prescribed opioids will misuse or already is misusing them. the scales were a significant advance in tracking medication adherence, but still only generated an accurate prediction roughly 66% of the time. nevertheless, patient selfreporting of medication-t aking behaviors is an important pillar of the physician assessment of medication adherence (i.e., is a patient taking the medication the way it has been prescribed, and if not, is he or she addicted?). the selfreport scales are just one method of gathering adherence information from the patient, and a detailed clinical interview will achieve the same results. 2. urine drug testing the second pillar in assessing the likelihood that patients prescribed opioids will misuse them, or in monitoring adherence, is urine drug screening or urine drug testing (udt). drug toxicology technology advanced in the 1990s to give rise to commercially available quantitative urine drugtesting platforms, first known as the gas chromatography–mass spectroscopy method (gcms). gcms allowed measurement of each type of illegal drug and prescription opioid and other prescription medications in the urine with a high degree of accuracy, being able to quantify an amount as low as nanograms per milliliter for substances such as cocaine, oxycodone, morphine, and even gabapentin (a common nonopioid pain medication). udts using gcms technology revolutionized the field of medication adherence monitoring in patients with pain. in 2007, wasan and colleagues reported the largest series to date using udts to monitor prescription opioid adherence in 550 patients with chronic pain (michna et al. 2007). they confirmed the results from earlier patient selfreport studies and also found a 40% incidence of opioid misuse. this study, among others, led to the rapid and widespread adoption of udts as a standard of care in opioid adherence monitoring. 3. provider evaluation the third pillar of the threelegged platform for assessing opioid adherence is the global assessment of the provider—namely, is the patient taking the medication properly? this may be information gathered from other providers of the patient (such as in the electronic medical record), reports from the family, inconsistencies observed in the patient (such as requesting early refills), lost 126 ajay d. wasan or stolen prescriptions, and observed behaviors during the visit (such as sedation, confusion, or intoxication). provider assessment was given a significant boost with the creation of prescription drug monitoring programs (pdmps). these are staterun databases of prescriptions of controlled substances entered by each pharmacy when a medication is dispensed. when a provider checks the pdmp they can see when the last prescription (if any) for an opioid was written by any provider in that state. patients who are “doctor shopping” by going to multiple providers to obtain opioids can be readily identified. there has been a 30% reduction in opioids prescribed for pain in the states with robust pdmp programs (finley et al. 2017). attempts to nationalize a pdmp program were thwarted by a lack of financial support from congress. subsequently, several states have agreed to share their pdmp data, so that a provider can check if prescriptions were filled in adjacent states. in 2016, pennsylvania became the 49th state with a pdmp, leaving missouri as the only state without a program. in july 2017, the missouri governor issued an executive order establishing a state pdmp, but it has not yet been implemented. many states, such as pennsylvania and new york, require that providers check the pdmp prior to the prescription of opioids. for more information on pdmps in pennsylvania, see mirigian et al. 2018, in this issue. patient selfreports, udt results, and provider assessment are the three fundamental components of assessing adherence to prescription opioids in a comprehensive fashion. an abnormality in any of these domains indicates that the patient is misusing opioids, at the very least, and may possibly be addicted. wasan and colleagues developed the most widely used research criteria for identifying prescription opioid misuse, known as the drug misuse index (jamison et al. 2010). the drug misuse index triangulates these three streams of data to make an overall determination of adherence versus misuse. it has been used in multiple studies and is considered the leading approach for opioid medication adherence monitoring (smith et al. 2015). the dose of opioid prescribed was also found to be an important predictor of complications from prescription opioid therapy, such as overdose, addiction, and death (edlund et al. 2010). since there are many different prescription opioid compounds of various strengths (e.g., oxycodone, morphine, fentanyl), in comparing doses, conversion is made to each compound’s strength relative to morphine, the first prescription opioid. this is expressed as morphine equivalent dosing. doses greater than 200 mg per day of morphine equivalents were found to independently predict increased rates of overdose, addiction, and death related to opioids. subsequent work found that doses as physician responses to the opioid epidemic 127 low as 90 mg per day were just as predictive, and 90 mg became an important benchmark in determining what is a “high dose” of opioids. however, these studies suffered from an important confounder, in that many of the patients who had complications from opioids were also coprescribed benzodiazepines, which are medications such as valium, ativan, or xanax that negatively interact with opioids. these “tranquilizers” magnify the side effects of opioids, such as sedation, confusion, and difficulty breathing. when additional studies controlled for the concurrent prescribing of benzodiazepines, the association between 90 mg per day of morphine equivalents and increased opioid complications disappeared. nevertheless, the 90mgper-d ay benchmark has been retained in many state and national “best practices” recommendations. over the past 15 years, research has continued to investigate the importance of risk factors for prescription misuse, abuse, and addiction. of the identified factors, a previous or current history of an addictive disorder is the most powerful risk factor in predicting opioid use disorders. however, affective disorders (such as major depression, generalized anxiety disorder, or the frequent combination of both—major depression with anxious features) are most prevalent in patients with chronic pain, afflicting at least 30% of the 100 million adults in this country with chronic pain. among those patients seeking care for chronic pain, 40%–50% have an untreated or undertreated negative affective disorder (dersh et al. 2006). this subgroup with psychiatric comorbidity is also prescribed opioids for chronic pain at much greater rates, likely due to worse levels of reported pain, disability, and distress. wasan and others across the country have studied the trajectories of opioid therapy in the subgroup of chronic low back pain patients with negative affective disorders (braden et al. 2009; wasan et al. 2015). in sum, they have found that the back pain patients with high levels of negative affective symptoms have 50% less pain relief with opioids, and a 50% rate of opioid misuse. in this group of patients, the misuse phenomenon begins with urges to take more medication than prescribed between doses, a preoccupation with the next dose, and craving for more medication. patients with high negative affect also tend to selfmedicate for anxious and depressive feelings or insomnia through taking extra opioids (martel et al. 2014). while perhaps understandable, this is considered nonadherence to opioid therapy, and overtaking opioids is the most frequent presentation of opioid misuse. these clinical studies and continued observations of problematic opioid prescribing involving high doses to patients with risk factors for opioid complications led state and federal authorities as well as medical professional 128 ajay d. wasan societies to draft best practice guidelines for opioid therapy for chronic pain. by and large, over a period of several years, these various guidelines are quite consistent, beginning with the american pain society–american academy of pain medicine (aps/aapm) guidelines in 2009, and most recently, the 2016 primary care opioid prescribing guidelines for chronic pain released by the centers for disease control and prevention (cdc) (chou et al. 2009; dowell, haegerich, and chou 2016). despite having many of the same authors, including the same lead, one remarkable difference between the aps/aapm and cdc guidelines is that the bar for acceptable evidence regarding opioid prescribing was changed (busse, juurlink, and guyatt 2016; tayeb et al. 2016). in the aps/aapm guidelines, studies of patients who were prescribed opioid therapy for at least three months were considered, and this led to the conclusion that, for chronic pain, there is moderate evidence that opioids can be effective. in the cdc guidelines, only studies that tracked patients after one year of treatment were considered acceptable, none of which exist. this led the cdc report to conclude that opioids are not effective for chronic pain, and this conclusion has dramatically affected practice across the country, leading many primary care physicians to reduce or eliminate opioid prescribing for chronic noncancer pain. while in the treatment of chronic disease, studies of longer than oneyear duration would seem the most prudent to include for consideration, there are scarcely any studies of any pain medication (e.g., antiinflammatory agents such as naproxen) that are more than a year long, and the vast majority are less than six months in duration (tayeb et al. 2016). if one were to apply to all pain medications the same standard of yearlong followup for inclusion as acceptable studies in evidencebased guidelines, at least 75% of the existing medication guidelines for pain management would be dismissed. thus, applying a standard for acceptable evidence that is far beyond what the field of pain management considers acceptable is far outside the norm for evidencebased guidelines for any treatment for pain. this issue of standards for evidence inclusion is the most controversial in the cdc guidelines, but the recommendations for dose limits also were quite provocative (busse, juurlink, and guyatt 2016). the cdc guidelines suggested that there is no evidence that doses greater than 90 mg of morphine equivalents per day are more effective for chronic pain, and that these doses are associated with greater complications. as noted, this supposition has weak supporting evidence; nevertheless, it has sparked many insurance companies to deny authorization for total daily doses greater than 90 mgs, even in patients who have been on higher doses for long periods of time with evidence of improved pain and function, and no misuse. physician responses to the opioid epidemic 129 the majority of recommendations were well received, however, being mainstream and consistent with other guidelines. the common elements among many of these guidelines are that patients should be considered for opioids for chronic pain only after a diagnosis has been made through a medical evaluation, including a detailed history, physical exam, and review of pertinent studies; merely describing a patient having pain in the right leg, for instance, is not a diagnosis. opioids should only be considered after several nonopioid options have failed, such as antiinflammatory agents or physical therapy. indeed, it is frequently pointed out that many patients with musculoskeletal pain are prescribed an opioid even before physical therapy is ordered. opioids should be considered a trial in which the patient and provider mutually agree on benchmarks for success, such as improvements in pain and/or function, with no issues of misuse. opioid treatment agreements are recommended to facilitate this communication and mutual expectations. ideally, any successful treatment for chronic pain should improve pain and function together. however, it is quite common for patients to say that a treatment has indeed helped them and improved their quality of life through being able to increase their activity, while their level of pain (most commonly rated on a 0–10 scale, with 10 being the most severe) has not changed. hence, changes in pain and changes in function are not always linked, which is a crucial consideration in evaluating the success or failure of treatments for chronic pain. when starting opioids, it is important to start with low doses of short acting opioids, which typically last 3–6 hours. this strategy avoids the complications of higher doses, particularly in the elderly, and allows a window to evaluate their effectiveness and tolerability. if opioids are deemed effective, then either switching the short-a cting opioids to longeracting formulations or adding longacting opioids to shortacting opioids is frequently recommended. this approach avoids the peaks and valleys in blood levels of medication and levels of pain related to the dosing of shortacting opioids only. a core principle of managing chronic pain is using treatments that minimize the possible spikes in pain levels that occur frequently during the day related to activity, or that occur spontaneously at night. in terms of monitoring adherence, the guidelines are very consistent in recommending the three pillars of assessment: patient selfreport, udts, and provider evaluation. there are no agreedupon intervals to do each of these things (which will vary from patient to patient, ideally based on their risks of opioid misuse), but generally when starting opioids, patients are seen within the first 2–4 weeks. when stable doses have been achieved with documentation of good adherence, patients are often seen for reevaluation every 3–6 months. if opioids are discontinued, it is recommended that they are tapered 130 ajay d. wasan slowly, such as a 10%–20% reduction every month in total daily dose, except for the scenarios of addiction to opioids or diversion. as an illustration of opioid guideline implementation, in 2015 the university of pittsburgh medical center (upmc) began operationalizing good opioid care practices across its integrated delivery network of 25 hospitals, 400 outpatient clinics, and a health insurance plan with 1.8 million members. this was most salient in a metropolitan region noted by the cdc to be in the upper 25% in the country of rates of opioid prescribing and overdose deaths related to opioids. upmc is the largest academic integrated delivery network in the nation, and approximately 50% of people in the pittsburgh metropolitan area of 2.2 million people receive at least some medical care through upmc. thus, the opioid epidemic was also an opportunity to do effective populationbased pain care to target this intersection of pain and opioid use. a multipronged approach was taken to improve opioid care by following the 2009 aps/aapm prescribing guidelines for chronic pain, and scaling up/ translating the clinical implications of much of the published opioid research, such as that of dr. wasan, who was leading these populationbased research efforts at the university of pittsburgh. first, a systemwide advisory committee (the pain steering committee) was formed, consisting of leaders across upmc, including several physician specialties (pain medicine, physiatry, psychiatry, primary care, and emergency medicine), nursing executives, hospital leaders, quality improvement specialists, finance administrators, and executives from the health insurance plan. the committee quickly achieved consensus that we must target the intersection between good pain care and opioid prescribing through improving pain care overall, and opioid care specifically. we also agreed to focus on process improvements, since, like many health care systems across the country, highquality outcomes data are still not widely available or able to be tracked sufficiently when changes to care are made. the field of medical informatics is still evolving toward this goal to enable better assessment and delivery of valuebased health care. we conducted a needs assessment in multiple medical specialties regarding pain care. with the resources allotted to our committee by upmc, we improved opioid care delivery in the following nine ways, as summarized in table 1. below is more detail on some of these improvements. 1. widely disseminating the pennsylvania and 2016 cdc guidelines. 2. mandating online continuing education in pain and opioid care for 500 primary care and specialty physicians along with 2,000 nurse practitioners and physician assistants. physician responses to the opioid epidemic 131 3. identifying those providers who prescribed highdose opioids for chronic pain to many patients using upmc health plan data (>90 mg of morphine equivalents for >90 consecutive days), and then conducting an intervention in a select group of primary care physicians. this intervention (the 9090 program) individually mentored physicians on individual patient cases of their own to improve opioid care by slowly reducing the dose, adding nonopioid medications and physical therapy, and more tightly doing adherence monitoring. this process is known as academic detailing, with studies supporting its effectiveness in pain care specifically (liebschutz et al. 2017). compared to a control group of 9090 physicians who received the guidelines but no individual mentorship, prescribed opioid doses were reduced by an average of 30% over a oneyear period in the intervention group. 4. providing a range of clinical tools in the outpatient and inpatient electronic medical records to improve pain and opioid care, such as posting of opioid guidelines, dose conversion tables, a resource list facilitating referral to pain or addiction medicine specialists, prescribing intranasal naloxone to patients who have overdosed or who are prescribed opioids and are at a higher risk of overdose, and an individual physician “opioid dashboard” enabling each physician to track across their patient panel as a whole, and for patients, individual opioid care metrics (such as opioid doses, opioid use agreements, udts, and compliance checklists). 5. promoting continuing medical education opportunities to satisfy maintenance of certification requirements for internists through a monthlong project to track opioid doses and use of opioid table 1. nine improvements to opioid care delivery from upmc 1. disseminate pennsylvania and 2016 cdc guidelines widely 2. mandate online continuing education for health care professionals 3. conduct intervention (90-90 program) in select group of physicians 4. provide clinical tools in electronic medical records 5. promote continuing medical education opportunities 6. create pathway in emergency departments for mat/suboxone 7. embed social workers in clinics to comanage suboxone prescribing with mds 8. collaborate and coordinate care via university of pittsburgh opioid task force 9. expand multidisciplinary pain treatment resources in pain clinics 132 ajay d. wasan agreements in their patients with chronic pain. this was completed by 300 primary care physicians. 6. creating a pathway in the emergency departments for assessing the need for medicationassisted therapy and enabling suboxone prescribing. 7. embedding social workers with addiction medicine training in primary care and pain specialty clinics, along with training physicians, to prescribe suboxone to patients with opioid use disorders, with or without pain. 8. collaborating with addiction medicine clinicians, services, and programs, and local and regional department of health officials and law enforcement throughout the western pennsylvania region via the university of pittsburgh opioid task force to better coordinate opioid addiction care. 9. expanding multidisciplinary pain treatment resources in pain specialty clinics, such as the addition of a psychologist and a psychiatrist, and improved physical and occupational therapy services, with providers trained specifically in chronic pain rehabilitation. conclusion across the united states, the physician focus on improved opioid prescribing for chronic pain has resulted in an overall drop of 12% in the rate of opioid prescribing since 2011, decreases in the average milligrams of morphine equivalents per prescription, as well as a 30% drop in the rates of prescribing high-d ose opioids, >90 mg per day (guy et al. 2017). in western pennsylvania specifically, these metrics have dropped even more sharply compared to the rest of the 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p. s. julnes, t. frohe, j. p. ney, and d. n. van der goes. 2015. “rates of opioid misuse, abuse, and addiction in chronic pain: a systematic review and data synthesis.” pain 156 (april): 569–576. wasan, a. d., e. michna, r. r. edwards, j. n. katz, s. s. nedeljkovic, a. j. dolman, d. janfaza, z. isaac, and r. n. jamison. 2015. “psychiatric comorbidity is associated prospectively with diminished opioid analgesia and increased opioid misuse in patients with chronic low back pain.” anesthesiology 123 (october): 861–872. ajay d. wasan is the vice chair for pain medicine in the department of anesthesiology at the university of pittsburgh medical center (upmc) and a professor of anesthesiology and psychiatry in the university of pittsburgh school of medicine. he is board certified in pain medicine and completed fellowship training in pain medicine in the anesthesiology department at brigham and women’s hospital and harvard medical school. he is also board certified in psychiatry and completed a residency in psychiatry at johns hopkins. he is cochair of a systemwide committee to improve pain care across upmc. the pennsylvania 2015 state supreme court election in comparative perspective commonwealth, volume 18, issue 2 (2016). © 2016 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/cjppp.v18i2.121. all rights reserved. the pennsylvania 2015 state supreme court election in comparative perspective jenna becker kane west chester university judicial candidates and outside groups spent a record $15.8 million in a 2015 election that decided the partisan balance of the pennsylvania supreme court. adding to the recordsetting election was a barrage of televised attack advertising in which outside interests spent over $4 million to influence the outcome of the high court race. this article places the 2015 pennsylvania supreme court election in comparative perspective to assess whether or not the campaign fundraising, campaign spending, and campaign advertising in this race was as “historic” as commonly claimed. interestingly, when compared with other pennsylvania high court races, the 2015 race was not a watershed election for candidate fundraising, especially when fundraising totals are averaged per candidate. neither was the tone and tenor of campaign advertising in the 2015 pennsylvania race outside the trend of contemporary judicial campaigns in other states, which have seen a marked increase in televised attack advertising by outside groups that often target candidates as soft on crime. overall, the cost and tone of the 2015 pennsylvania supreme court race appears to be a part of wider trends in contemporary judicial elections and very much in line with the cost of high court races in pennsylvania over the last decade. the article concludes by surveying empirical evidence on the efficacy of judicial elections and assesses pennsylvania’s prospects for reforming its method of judicial selection. the pennsylvania 2015 state supreme court election in comparative perspective 83 the weeks leading up to the november 2015 election in pennsylvania reminded citizens of an oftforgotten caveat of pennsylvania politics—that here in the keystone state, judges are elected. elections cost money, which often means that candidates seeking judicial office must raise money and actively campaign for votes much like those in the legislative and executive branches. voters experienced this reality firsthand in november when seven candidates vied for three vacancies on pennsylvania’s highest court in an expensive, highstakes election that would decide the partisan balance of the court and have wideranging effects for most matters of state law. perhaps the most visible evidence of this highstakes political battle for the pennsylvania bench was the barrage of television advertising that was seen across the state in the final weeks of the campaign, some of which turned negative. one ad accused a candidate of falsely claiming authorship of published legal articles and filing improper information on campaign finance forms. another accused a candidate of “failing to protect women and children” and handing down “lenient sentences,” while still another ad accused a candidate of failing “to protect a child” and allowing “a young girl to be placed in the custody of a convicted murderer.”1 news reports and editorials declared the 2015 pennsylvania supreme court race “the most expensive judicial election in u.s. history” (bishop 2015) and decried the use of attack advertising in the judicial contest as a “low road to [the] high court” (philadelphia inquirer editorial board 2015). in fact, most media coverage of the 2015 pennsylvania judicial elections espoused one of two major objections (either explicitly or implicitly) to the raucous nature of the high court election. first, many accounts raised concerns about the amount of money raised and spent by candidates vying for the three open seats in pennsylvania; the race cost in excess of $15.8 million, which surpassed the previous national record of $15.19 million set by a 2004 race in illinois (brennan center for justice 2015).2 the second major objection takes aim at the tone and source of the campaign advertising used in the 2015 election, which brought an onslaught of negative campaign advertisements sponsored by interest groups, many from outside the state. concerns like these over the cost and tone of pennsylvania’s recent judicial election echo many of those shared by many in the legal community who believe the realities of campaign fundraising and advertising in judicial elections erodes judicial independence and threatens the legitimacy of the courts. in fact, these concerns run so deep that the 2015 election catapulted judicial selection reform back onto the state’s legislative agenda with widespread bipartisan support. 84 jenna becker kane significance of the 2015 pennsylvania supreme court race on november 3, 2015, seven candidates (originally 12 when the primaries began) competed for three open seats on the pennsylvania supreme court. while this election was historic in regards to campaign fundraising and the influx of spending by outside groups, this high court race also saw a record number of candidates vying for the most open seats in the court’s history. all of these recordsetting benchmarks came as a result of years of controversy and scandal that rocked pennsylvania’s highest judiciary. the first vacancy occurred as a result of the suspension and subsequent resignation in 2013 of republican justice joan orie melvin after being convicted of six counts of campaign corruption. the charges stemmed from melvin’s use of her superior court staff to help organize and run her 2003 and 2009 election bids for the state supreme court and for her involvement in using the campaign staff of her sister, then state senator jane orie, to assist her own campaign for the state high court. the second vacancy resulted from the 2014 suspension of justice seamus mccaffery, a democrat, for his involvement in a scandal involving the exchange of sexually explicit emails between members of the state attorney general’s office and other state employees. mccaffery resigned one week after his october 20, 2014, suspension. the court’s third vacancy arose with republican chief justice ronald castille’s retirement in january 2015 after reaching the mandatory retirement age of 70 the previous year.3 with three vacancies, the partisan composition of pennsylvania’s seven member court was evenly divided between two sitting republican justices and two sitting democrats, making the outcome of the 2015 election crucial for deciding the ideological direction of the state’s highest court. this fact alone heightened the political importance and policy implications of the 2015 pennsylvania supreme court race. in recent years, the pennsylvania high court has decided issues related to education funding, redistricting procedures, voter identification requirements, and fracking. perhaps most significant, the partisan composition of the court could be vital to determining party control of the state’s legislative reapportionment commission, which may play a role in future state redistricting decisions. the commission comprises five members, four of whom are selected respectively by the majority and minority leadership of both chambers. the pennsylvania supreme court is charged with selecting the fifth member as chair of the committee if the four selected members cannot agree on an appointment, thus positioning the state supreme court to select the partisanship of the tie-b reaking vote on the commission. the pennsylvania 2015 state supreme court election in comparative perspective 85 given the vast legal and political import of filling three vacancies on pennsylvania’s highest court, it is not surprising that the 2015 election saw record breaking spending that drew the attention of outside interest groups. judicial selection across the states if you hail from one of the twelve states that do not use them, judicial elections and the type of campaign seen in pennsylvania in 2015 may seem absurd, but there is great variation across states in terms of judicial selection methods. broadly speaking, there are four different types of judicial selection methods—partisan elections, nonpartisan elections, the missouri plan, and appointment used to staff state judiciaries. table 1 shows the various selection table 1. selection systems and term length of state supreme courts, 2015 partisan elections term nonpartisan elections term missouri plan term appointment term alabama 6 arkansas 8 alaska 10 connecticut 8 illinois* 10 georgia 6 arizona 6 delaware 12 louisiana 10 idaho 6 california 12 hawaii 10 new mexico* 8 kentucky 8 colorado 10 maine 7 pennsylvania* 10 michigan** 8 florida 6 massachusetts life texas 6 minnesota 6 indiana 10 new hampshire life mississippi 8 iowa 8 new jersey 7 montana*** 8 kansas 6 new york 14 nevada 6 maryland 10 rhode island life north carolina* 8 missouri 12 south carolina 10 north dakota 10 nebraska 6 vermont 6 ohio** 6 oklahoma 6 virginia 12 oregon 6 south dakota 8 washington 6 tennessee 8 west virginia 12 utah 10 wisconsin 10 wyoming 8 source: national center for state courts, judicial selection in the states. available at http://www .judicialselection.us. accessed may 30, 2016. *justices are initially selected by elections but retained in retention elections for subsequent terms. **partisan affiliations are not listed in the general election, but partisan methods are used in the nomination process. ***retention elections are used if the incumbent is unopposed. http://www.judicialselection.us http://www.judicialselection.us 86 jenna becker kane methods used across the states to staff state supreme courts. seven states use partisan elections to select state high court judges. in these contests, judges are selected by political parties in partisan primaries. winners of the partisan primaries face each other in general elections in which the party affiliation of each candidate appears on the ballot. sixteen states use nonpartisan elections to choose judges. in these contestable elections, candidates must compete in nonpartisan primaries to run in the general election where the party identification of candidates is excluded from the ballot. another sixteen states use the missouri plan to select judges. the missouri plan is a commission-ba sed system of selection that uses a judicial nominating commission to screen judicial candidates and make recommendations from which the governor must choose. these appointments are usually then subject to confirmation in the state senate. to secure subsequent terms, judges must run in uncontested retention elections in which there are no challengers and voters are simply asked to award a sitting judge another term in a yes/no vote. the final method of selecting judges in the states is through appointment. ten of the 12 appointment states use gubernatorial appointment with legislative confirmation, which largely resembles the federal system of selection. two states—south carolina and virginia—allow their legislatures to appoint high court judges. under all of these appointment systems, judges must seek reappointment by the governor or legislature to secure subsequent terms. despite these broad categories of judicial selection methods, there is much variation both across and within states. pennsylvania is a good example of this variation. pennsylvania uses partisan elections to initially select state supreme court judges to 10-y ear terms, but then uses uncontested retention elections to retain judges for subsequent terms. this means that state judges face competitors in contestable elections to initially ascend to the bench, but thereafter run unopposed. pennsylvania is also one of only two states that hold judicial elections in offyears to coincide with municipal elections, which greatly lowers turnout in these elections. the price of judicial elections in total, 38 states use some form of elections to select or retain judges—either partisan, nonpartisan, or retention elections. for much of the twentieth century, judicial elections were lowkey affairs that garnered little public attention and demanded very little in the way of campaign fundraising. however, since the 1990s, state supreme court races have become more competitive (bonneau 2005; hall 2001, 2007; kritzer 2011), more contested (bonneau and hall 2003; hall 2001), and more expensive (bonneau 2004; sample et al. 2010). using the pennsylvania 2015 state supreme court election in comparative perspective 87 data collected by the justice at stake campaign, brennan center for justice, and national institute on money in state politics, figure 1 shows aggregate campaign fundraising totals in all state supreme court races since the mid 1990s. several trends are evident. first, the cost of high court elections appears to have increased in recent decades, but this increase has not been monotonic. campaign fundraising increased steadily throughout the 1990s, but thereafter appears to vary largely with presidential election cycles. the cost of high court races held in presidential election years was substantially greater than in those held in offyear elections throughout the 2000s. the final observation to be made from figure 1 is that aggregate levels of campaign fundraising in high court races appear to be returning to levels similar to those in the 1990s. in fact, aggregate candidate fundraising in 2013–2014 was the lowest in the timeframe being observed, which may be a result of an unprecedented number of uncontested races in the 2013–2014 election cycle (greytak et al. 2015) or may be symptomatic of a larger downward trend in campaign fundraising by high court candidates. only future data will shed light on the true nature of this trend. not all elections are created equal when it comes to campaign fundraising and spending in state supreme court races. retention elections inherently involve very low levels of overall spending due to their uncontested nature. indeed, most retention elections see no campaign spending or advertising at all. this is evident in figure 2, which shows overall spending totals in state figure 1. total candidate fundraising in state supreme court elections. (compiled by the author from data presented in the new politics of judicial elections series [washington, dc: justice at stake campaign].) 88 jenna becker kane high court elections between 2000 and 2009 separated by election type. partisan elections are by far the most expensive of all of high court contests. partisan races have historically attracted far greater levels of campaign spending than have nonpartisan and retention elections. given the fact that political parties are actively involved in partisan state supreme court campaigns, perhaps it is unsurprising that these contests routinely see the highest levels of spending. pennsylvania in comparative perspective campaign fundraising/spending the pennsylvania 2015 supreme court election cost in excess of $15.8 million with just over $13 million of that raised through candidate fundraising efforts. as we saw in figure 2, partisan elected state high court races are traditionally the most expensive judicial races. in fact, table 2 shows that pennsylvania high court races are routinely amongst the most costly of all state supreme court elections. in fact, from 2000–2009 pennsylvania was home to the third most expensive set of high court races with aggregate spending totals exceeding $22 million. with total spending exceeding $15.8 million in the 2015 contest alone, pennsylvania appears to be well on its way to breaking its total spending records from the previous decade. figure 2. total spending in state supreme court elections by election type, 2000–2009. (data from james sample et al., the new politics of judicial elections 2000–2009: decade of change [washington, dc: justice at stake campaign, 2010].) the pennsylvania 2015 state supreme court election in comparative perspective 89 all of the states with the most expensive high court races are states that use partisan elections to select judges. this is in large part because most state campaign finance laws that dictate how funds can be raised for legislative and executive statelevel races also apply to partisan judicial races, allowing for funds to be easily raised by candidates. however, a few limits are regularly placed on judicial elections that are not placed on candidates running for other statelevel offices. in pennsylvania specifically, there are no limits on the amount of money individuals can contribute to judicial campaigns as long as contributions are not anonymous and cash contributions do not exceed $100. direct campaign contributions from corporations, labor unions, and regulated industries to judicial campaigns are prohibited. however, there are no limits on the amounts that political action committees (pacs), often set up by corporations and labor unions, can contribute to judicial candidates.4 pennsylvania’s judicial code of conduct also bars candidates from directly soliciting or accepting campaign contributions, but candidate campaign committees are not barred from such activity.5 therefore, despite some limitations on the campaign fundraising of judicial candidates in pennsylvania, many viable avenues remain through which campaign contributions can freely flow. we now know that high court contests in pennsylvania are some of the most costly in the nation, but how does the 2015 contest compare with other recent pennsylvania supreme court races? table 3 helps to shed some light on that question by comparing campaign fundraising totals for recent openseat pennsylvania high court elections. data reveal that while the 2015 high court table 2. total spending for top 10 states, 2000–2009 supreme court elections state total spending alabama $43,587,170 ohio $29,834,992 pennsylvania $22,653,882 texas $20,717,067 illinois $20,695,352 michigan $18,603,443 mississippi $12,084,774 wisconsin $11,540,219 nevada $9,888,121 west virginia $9,566,132 source: james sample et al., the new politics of judicial elections 2000–2009: decade of change (washington, dc: justice at stake campaign, 2010). 90 jenna becker kane race involved the highest fundraising totals in the state’s history, the average per-candidate fundraising in 2015 was not greater than that of the 2009 or 2007 openseat elections. the 2015 race does not appear to break state records of median candidate fundraising either. the median fundraising level by candidates in 2015 was a mere $425,165 compared to $3,699,180 and $1,753,726 in 2009 and 2007 respectively. given this data, it appears that the 2009 race between republican joan orie melvin and democrat jack panella was the actual “historic” high court race for campaign fundraising per candidate in pennsylvania. campaign advertising the second major concern raised over the 2015 pennsylvania supreme court election was the negative attack advertising in the final weeks of the election. a series of television ads accused republican candidates of being “out of touch” with pennsylvania voters, “lenient” on criminal sentences, and “dishonest,” while another ad accused a democratic candidate of failing to “keep table 3. pennsylvania supreme court fundraising totals in open seat races year candidate total raised total for race* average per-candidate fundraising 2015 (3 seats) christine donohue (d) won $1,951,410 $13,097,913 $1,091,493 (12) kevin dougherty (d) won $3,984,375 david n. wecht (d) won $2,880,604 anne covey (r) $984,655 michael a. george (r) $882,919 judith olson (r) $616,330 paul panepinto (i) $234,000 2009 (1 seat) joan orie melvin (r) won $1,990,714 $7,666,468 $1,916,617 (4) jack panella (d) $5,407,646 2007 (2 seats) seamus mccaffery (d) won $2,297,753 $9,464,975 $1,352,139 (7) debra todd (d) won $1,594,202 maureen e. lallygreen (r) $1,753,726 mike krancer (r) $2,116,507 source: compiled by the author from the pennsylvania department of state and the national institute on money in state politics. available at https://www.campaignfinanceonline.state.pa.us/pages/cfreport search.aspx and http://www.followthemoney.org/our-data/. accessed april 25, 2016. *includes fundraising by primary candidates not listed in the table. the number of candidates is in parentheses. https://www.campaignfinanceonline.state.pa.us/pages/cfreportsearch.aspx https://www.campaignfinanceonline.state.pa.us/pages/cfreportsearch.aspx http://www.followthemoney.org/our-data/ the pennsylvania 2015 state supreme court election in comparative perspective 91 our children safe” while on the bench.6 popular accounts of the 2015 pennsylvania supreme court election seem to imply that these attack ads were uncharacteristically harsh or caustic for a state supreme court election (bishop 2015; pittsburgh post-gazette editorial board 2015; potter 2015). to empirically assess this concern, i use data available through the brennan center for justice’s buying time website.7 since 2000, the brennan center has been collecting data on television ad airings and spending in the nation’s largest media markets as calculated by kantar media/cmag. data on the number of unique television ads aired in pennsylvania’s 2015 pennsylvania supreme court race are taken from the brennan center’s website.8 overall, there were 21 unique advertisements aired in the 2015 pennsylvania supreme court race. consistent with standard practice (geer 2006; sample et al. 2010; hall 2015), i coded each ad as either a promote ad, contrast ad, or attack ad. promote ads are those promoting one candidate, contrast ads compare two or more candidates, and attack ads criticize a candidate. table 4 presents the number and sponsorship of promote and attack ads for each candidate. in the 2015 pennsylvania race, like in most other judicial races, the majority of television ads (71%) were designed to promote the qualifications of the candidates. while there were no contrast ads aired in this election, most likely a result of it being an open seat contest with no incumbent running for reelection, six (29%) of the ads aired were attack ads. the very presence of attack table 4. 2015 pennsylvania high court television advertisements candidate group candidate group sponsored sponsored sponsored sponsored candidate promote ads promote ads attack ads attack ads kevin dougherty (d) 4 0 0 1 david wecht (d) 2 0 0 0 christine donohue (d) 3 0 0 0 judy olson (r) 2 1 0 2 mike george (r) 1 1 0 2 anne covey (r) 1 1 0 3 total 13 2* 0 6** source: coded by the author using data reported by the brennan center for justice’s buying time website. available at www.brennancenter.org/analysis/buyingtime. the number of airings of each ad is unavailable. *a single groupsponsored ad aired in support of olson and covey. **a single groupsponsored ad aired attacking all three republican candidates. 92 jenna becker kane advertising in the 2015 race places pennsylvania in the minority of states that use judicial elections. in her seminal study of campaign advertising in state supreme court elections, hall (2015, 74) found that only 17% (30 of 177) of all judicial elections held between 2002 and 2008 saw attack advertising. however, hall also found that open seat elections are more likely to see attack advertising, with these elections garnering negative advertising 31.4% of the time (2015, 76). therefore, the fact that three open seats were up for grabs in the 2015 pennsylvania race, made the race more likely to see attack advertising when compared with other state supreme court contests. data was further coded to determine the type of appeals being made in televised ads aired in pennsylvania’s 2015 high court race. to allow comparison with hall’s work on state supreme court advertising, the content of each ad aired in the 2015 pennsylvania race was coded using geer’s (2006) typology. specifically, each ad was coded as discussing traits of the candidate, values of the candidate, or substantive issues. the traits category includes ads that discuss a candidate’s qualifications for judicial service. the values category includes appeals that invoke family or conservative values, the proper role of judges, and restoring integrity to the bench. ads fitting into the issues category involve specific appeals to civil justice, criminal justice, special interest influence, or criticism of past judicial decision. figure 3 presents data on the overall tone of the ads aired in the 2015 contest. figure 3. types of appeals in televised campaign advertising by tone in 2015 pennsylvania supreme court elections. (compiled and coded by the author using data reported by the brennan center for justice’s buying time website. available at www.brennancenter.org/analysis/ buying-time.) the pennsylvania 2015 state supreme court election in comparative perspective 93 overall there were 32 types of appeals made in 21 unique ads in the pennsylvania 2015 supreme court race. figure 3 shows that most promote ads aired in the pennsylvania race focused on candidate traits and values. most ads designed to promote individual candidates focused on specific candidate experience and qualifications and on the proper role of judges and judicial integrity. when promote ads made appeals about specific issues, those appeals focused on expanding veteran’s court and reforming the state’s court system. in contrast to the promote ads, 66.7% of appeals made in attack ads focused on substantive issues. specifically, these appeals concentrated on issues of criminal justice, support by interest groups or lobbyists, and criticism for specific judicial decisions. the overall themes of these issuebased attack ads centered around candidates being “soft on crime” and candidate ties to special interest groups. to assess whether or not the tone of candidate ads experienced by pennsylvania voters in 2015 were outside of the norm of contemporary judicial elections, figure 4 compares aggregate data on all televised judicial campaign ads between 2002 and 2008 with those aired in the 2015 pennsylvania contest. despite the fact that there were no contrast ads aired in the pennsylvania race, the tone of ads in pennsylvania fit quite well with trends in campaign figure 4. types of appeals in state supreme court televised campaign advertising in comparative perspective. (data for 2002–2008 from melinda gann hall, attacking judges: how campaign advertising influences state supreme court elections [stanford, ca: stanford university press, 2015], 83. data for pennsylvania 2015 race coded by the author using data reported by the brennan center for justice’s buying time website. available at www.brennancenter.org/analysis/ buying-time.) 94 jenna becker kane advertising in other high court races. the tone of promote ads witnessed in the recent pennsylvania race are in similar proportions to those seen nationally, save the slightly higher proportion of promote ads focusing on values in the pennsylvania race. this focus on values and the proper role of judges in the pennsylvania race should not be surprising given the recent scandals that precipitated many of the open seats on the state’s highest bench. attack ads in pennsylvania also appear to be on par with comparative trends. both in pennsylvania and in other states, the vast majority of attack ads appear to make issuespecific appeals to voters. another important caveat of pennsylvania’s 2015 race is that candidate campaigns sponsored nearly all promote ads (13 of 15), while outside groups produced all of the negative attack ads (6 of 6).9 table 5 presents data on the cost and sponsorship of television advertising in the pennsylvania race. here we see that all of the six attack ads aired were sponsored by two outside groups—pennsylvanians for judicial reform and the republican state leadership committee’s judicial fairness initiative—both of which are national independent expenditure groups, or 527 groups, based on their tax-e xempt status designated by the internal revenue service. these groups can sponsor independent advertising in support or opposition of candidates, but cannot advocate for the direct election or defeat of a specific candidate or coordinate their work with candidate campaigns. in the pennsylvania race, pennsylvanians for judicial reform was funded primarily by philadelphia trial lawyers and unions and spent nearly $3 million airing five of the six attack ads seen by voters—all of which attacked table 5. television advertising spending in 2015 pennsylvania high court election candidate ad tone of ads candidate/group spending supported kevin dougherty $3,364,200 promote david wecht $1,991,160 promote christine donohue $1,263,190 promote judy olson $337,980 promote mike george $425,270 promote anne covey $508,540 promote pennsylvanians for judicial reform $2,902,390 attack republican state leadership committee $993,940 attack & promote pennsylvania republican party $8,190 promote source: brennan center for justice’s 2015 buying time website. available at www.brennancenter.org/ analysis/buyingtime, last updated march 1, 2016. the pennsylvania 2015 state supreme court election in comparative perspective 95 republican candidates as being unfit for office. in return, the republican state leadership committee, a group whose mission it is to elect republican candidates to downballot, statelevel offices, spent nearly $1 million launching a television and digital ad campaign supporting republicans anne covey and judy olson and attacking democrat kevin dougherty. the type of concentrated group spending on attack ads observed in the 2015 pennsylvania supreme court election is highly consistent with recent comparative research that finds that more than 88% of the attack advertising in open seat high court contests come from political parties and outside interest groups (hall 2015, 87). outside interest group involvement another of the largest objections to the 2015 pennsylvania supreme court race was the influx of big spending interest groups from outside the state that were responsible for the negative tone of the campaign’s final weeks. as was evident from table 5, two outside groups spent nearly $4 million on television advertising in pennsylvania’s 2015 high court race. while spending by outside groups in judicial elections has been on the rise nationally for more than a decade (skaggs, et al. 2011), the u.s. supreme court’s decision in citizens united v. federal election commission 558 u.s. 310 (2010) is often credited as the major impetus to outside group involvement in judicial campaigns. in citizens united, the supreme court struck down a provision of the bipartisan campaign reform act that prohibited corporations, unions, and nonprofit organizations from spending money on independent expenditures and electioneering communications in support or opposition of candidates running for office. essentially, the court’s ruling established that groups had the same free speech rights as individuals to spend money on independent advertisements in support (or opposition) of electoral candidates. thus, since citizens united removed limits to independent expenditures, there has been a proliferation of groupfunded superpacs engaging in campaign advertising in the electoral arena, including state supreme court races. did the citizens united decision contribute to an increase in campaign advertising by outside groups in the 2015 pennsylvania supreme court race? that question is not easily answered with existing data, but the court’s decision has definitely opened state supreme court races to independent advertising that is outside the control of candidate campaigns. table 6 presents data on television advertising aired in pennsylvania’s most recent openseat supreme court contests. while there is limited available data on independent expenditures on televised advertising in pennsylvania high court races, there 96 jenna becker kane does appear to be a sharp jump in group spending from the 2007 race to the first postcitizens united open seat contest in 2015.10 outside groups went from spending just over $1 million on advertising in 2007 to just over $4 million in the 2015 campaign. however, without disaggregated totals for outside spending in the 2009 campaign, any conclusions drawn from this data must be made extremely cautiously. despite the spike in outside spending in pennsylvania’s 2015 race, it is premature to say if the documented increase in interest group spending in 2015 will continue in future open seat contests. judicial elections a threat to judicial legitimacy? for decades, legal associations,11 advocacy groups,12 and legal scholars have trumpeted the deleterious effects of elections on judicial independence and court legitimacy. for many of those in the legal academy, including former supreme court justice sandra day o’connor, judicial elections and all that running for office entails present conflicts of interest for judges and erode the public’s faith in america’s courts (o’connor 2008). is justice for sale when judges are forced to raise money and campaign for votes? does subjecting judges to popular votes diminish citizen perception of the judiciary? the 2015 supreme court race in pennsylvania highlighted these fundamental questions about the efficacy of judicial elections. anecdotal evidence abounds to support these criticisms of judicial elections, but systematic, empirical evidence suggests that judicial elections are not as dangerous to court legitimacy as may be popularly believed. those concerned that justice is for sale often argue that the high cost of judicial elections forces candidates to raise large sums of money, mostly from attorneys, who will argue cases before the judge they contribute to, or table 6. pa supreme court television advertising spending by election cycle year candidate group party total 2015 (3 open seats) $8,496,200 $3,896,330 $8,190 $12,400,720 2009* (1 open seat) na na na $3,346,302 2007 (2 open seats) $3,500,454 $858,611 $196,131 $4,555,196 source: compiled by the author from data presented in the new politics of judicial elections series (washington, dc: justice at stake campaign) and by the brennan center for justice’s buying time website. available at www.brennancenter.org/analysis/buyingtime. *disaggregated data for the 2009 election are unavailable. the pennsylvania 2015 state supreme court election in comparative perspective 97 from groups and corporations that frequently have litigation pending before the court. this raises serious concerns that judicial elections make judges beholden to campaign contributors rather than the rule of law (hansen 1998; sample et al. 2010). for instance, a 2010 study commissioned by pennsylvanians for modern courts found that 60% of civil cases heard by the pennsylvania supreme court in 2008 and 2009 involved litigants or lawyers who had contributed to the election campaigns of at least one of the state’s high court justices (american judicature society 2010a). this type of anecdotal evidence certainly raises concern about the fairness or impartiality of courts that routinely decide cases in which campaign contributors are involved. however, empirical evidence on the influence of campaign contributions on judicial decisions is mixed. some scholars have found a correlation between contributions and decisions (cann 2007; shepherd 2009, 2013), while others have not (cann 2002; cann, bonneau, and boyea 2012). what is challenging in this line of inquiry is determining causal effects from correlational measures. difficulty arises when attempting to untangle whether a judge’s vote in favor of a contributing attorney is a result of the attorney’s campaign donation or a result of an attorney’s decision to contribute to a judge who is already predisposed to vote in favor of the attorney’s litigants. in technical terms, there is a problem of endogeneity that makes determining the true relationship between campaign dollars and decisions methodologically difficult. despite mixed evidence on the relationship between donations and judicial decisions, empirical studies have found some positive effects of highcost judicial elections. judicial elections have been found to have democratic enhancing effects, such as mobilizing voters and decreasing ballot rolloff in state high court contests (bonneau and hall 2009). partisan judicial elections have also been found to provide voters with valuable information about candidates for judicial races that help voters make decisions about otherwise lowinformation races (baum 2003). however, there are real concerns in the legal community that judicial elections and raucous campaigns like the 2015 pennsylvania race erode the legitimacy of the courts, and there is some validity to these concerns. data from various statewide surveys suggest that judicial elections and campaign fundraising raise some concerns over the legitimacy of the courts for a majority of the publics polled (bonneau and hall 2009) and that citizens living in states with elected courts have lower levels of confidence in their court systems compared with those in states with appointed courts (benesh 2006). in pennsylvania specifically, a 2010 survey showed that 76% of survey respondents believed that campaign contributions influence judicial decisions (american judicature society 2010b). 98 jenna becker kane however, evidence suggests that judicial elections are not as legitimacy eroding as popular opinion polls may lead us to believe. using a set of sophisticated survey experiments, gibson (2012) found that voters tend to favor accountability over independence when it comes to choosing state judges and thus, judicial elections actually elevate citizen support of state courts as an institution. despite this legitimacyenhancing effect of judicial elections, gibson also finds evidence to suggest that attack advertising and raucous judicial campaigns erode court legitimacy to some degree. ultimately, gibson concludes that judicial elections are a “mixed bag, with some positive influences on citizens but with negative consequences as well” (2012, 127). is judicial selection reform in pennsylvania’s future? the interest-g roupfueled 2015 state supreme court race and a judiciary riddled with scandals resurrected a longstanding debate in pennsylvania politics about reforming the method of judicial selection in the keystone state. proponents of court reform, such as the group pennsylvanians for modern courts, have long argued that a commission-ba sed appointment system like the missouri plan, also called merit selection, would eliminate the need for judicial candidates to raise money and mount campaigns for office, thus eliminating any perception of quid pro quo relationships between judges and litigants. commissionbased systems are also heralded as a way to ensure higher quality and more diverse candidates reach the bench. however, critics of the merit selection contend that commission-ba sed systems are “propagandistic misnomer[s]” (dimino 2004, 803) that allow political elites to install judges with no electoral accountability and produce judges with no appreciable difference in qualifications or professional experience (goelzhauser 2016). while this type of reform has percolated in pennsylvania politics for decades—former governors tom ridge and ed rendell were both strongly committed to reform—little legislative movement has been made over the years to accomplish this goal. however, progress was made on october 20, 2015, when the pennsylvania house judiciary committee voted to endorse house bill 1336 in a 16 to 11 bipartisan vote. house bill 1336 is a proposed amendment to the pennsylvania constitution that would replace the current partisan election of appellate state judges with a commission-ba sed appointment system in which the governor would appoint candidates (with senate confirmation) to fill judicial vacancies that are recommended by an independent nominating commission. judges would then stand for yes/no retention elections to secure subsequent terms. as of this writing, hb 1336 is awaiting full consideration by the pennsylvania house. the pennsylvania 2015 state supreme court election in comparative perspective 99 will hb 1336 pass? will pennsylvanians see an alteration to their judicial selection system in the near future? historical and empirical evidence suggests not. proponents of judicial selection reform have been actively lobbying the pennsylvania legislature since the 1950s, yet the recent movement on hb 1336 is the first time since 1993 that selection reform legislation has passed at any level in the general assembly.13 this does not suggest a historical record of legislative support for altering the state’s judicial selection method. empirical evidence from other states also casts doubt on pennsylvania’s prospects for reform. a recent study of successful and unsuccessful efforts to alter state judicial selection methods suggests there are two significant barriers to successful judicial selection reform in the states. specifically, efforts to move a state from judicial elections to commissionbased systems, or the missouri plan, are often derailed by a lack of substantial and sustained public support for the reform and state constitutional barriers that make moving away from elective methods more difficult for state legislatures (bonneau and kane, forthcoming). unfortunately for proponents of hb 1336, pennsylvania faces both barriers. most methods of judicial selection are established in state constitutions, by statute, or a mix of both. the pennsylvania constitution calls for judicial elections to be used to select judges, while the partisan nature of those elections is established by statute. therefore, to abandon judicial elections altogether, the pennsylvania constitution must be amended, a process that requires full approval by both state houses in two consecutive sessions of the general assembly and ratification by a majority of voters in a statewide referendum. the institutional barrier created by the constitutional amendment process is difficult to surmount as seen in recent failed reform efforts in nevada and minnesota. not only will longterm political and legislative support be needed to move pennsylvania away from judicial elections, the voter ratification process also means that widespread citizen support will also be needed if the state is to abandon judicial elections. as the spectacle of the 2015 pennsylvania supreme court race fades from voters’ memories, so too may the prospects for judicial selection reform. concluding thoughts the 2015 pennsylvania supreme court race involved unprecedented levels of overall spending and outside interest group advertising. while pennsylvania has long been a state with milliondollar high court contests, the $15.8 million spent in the 2015 race exceeded previous spending records both within and across states. however, considering that three open seats were to be filled by the 2015 contest and that the partisan balance of the pennsylvania 100 jenna becker kane supreme court would be determined by the race, this recordbreaking spending came as no surprise to court observers and scholars of judicial elections. when viewed comparatively within the context of highcost partisan judicial elections, the 2015 pennsylvania race appears to be less historic and more a symptom of general trends in contemporary judicial campaigns, especially campaign advertising and outside interest group involvement. notes 1. the three ads referenced here are titled “covey has a problem,” “come under criticism,” and “failed to protect.” all are available at www.brennancenter.org/analysis/ buying-time-2015-pennsylvania. 2. when comparing levels of spending in these two races, it is important to note that the 2004 race in illinois involved only two general election candidates competing for a single open seat compared with the 2015 pennsylvania race, which included seven candidates in the general election vying for three vacancies. 3. see staub (2014) and bumsted (2014) for more detailed explanation of the situations surrounding the departure of justices melvin and mccaffery. see hall (2015) for a discussion of justice castille’s retirement and his reflections on the scandals surrounding justices melvin and mccaffery. 4. pennsylvania department of state. “campaign finance reporting law” available at www.dos.pa. gov/votingelections/candidatescommittees/campaignfinance/ documents/law-cf/law.pdf. 5. rule 4.1(a) of pennsylvania code of judicial conduct, available at http://judicial conductboardofpa.org/ code-of-judicial-conduct/. 6. originally aired respectively as “here they are” and “failed to protect.” available at www.brennan center.org/analysis/buying-time-2015-pennsylvania. 7. see www.brennancenter.org/analysis/buying-t ime. 8. data on the total number of airings of each ad were unavailable at the time of writing. 9. see table 4. 10. the brennan center for justice only recently began gathering advertising data for state supreme court races held in off-y ear election cycles. 11. associations include the american bar association and the national center for state courts. 12. national groups include justice at stake and the now defunct american judicature society, while state specific groups include organizations such as pennsylvanians for modern courts. 13. see the national center for state court’s judicial selection in the states website for a list of failed reform efforts in pennsylvania, www.judicialselection.com/judicial_ selection/reform_efforts/failed_reform_efforts.cfm? state=pa. references american judicature society. 2010a. “campaign contributors and the pennsylvania supreme court.” available at www.judicialselection.us/uploads/documents/ajs_pa_ study_31810_rev_ 4ba9652a47ad2.pdf. accessed july 15, 2016. http://www.judicialselection.us/uploads/documents/ajs_pa_study_31810_rev_%204ba9652a47ad2.pdf http://www.judicialselection.us/uploads/documents/ajs_pa_study_31810_rev_%204ba9652a47ad2.pdf the pennsylvania 2015 state supreme court election in comparative perspective 101 ———. 2010b. “opinion polls and surveys.” available at www.judicialselection.us/ judicial_selection/reform_efforts/opinion_polls_surveys.cfm?state=. accessed july 15, 2016. baum, lawrence. 2003. “judicial elections and judicial independence: the voters’ perspective.” ohio state law journal 64: 13–41. benesh, sarah c. 2006. “understanding public confidence in american courts.” journal of politics 68 (august): 697–707. bishop, tyler. 2015. “the most expensive judicial election in u.s. history.” the atlantic, november 10. bonneau, chris w. 2004. “patterns of campaign spending and electoral competition in state supreme court elections.” justice system journal 25 (1): 21–38. ———. 2005. “what price justice(s)? understanding campaign spending in state supreme court elections.” state politics and policy quarterly 5 (summer): 107–125. bonneau, chris w., and jenna becker kane. forthcoming. “proposals for reforms: successes and failures.” in judicial elections in the 21st century, ed. chris w. bonneau and melinda gann hall. new york: routledge. bonneau, chris w., and melinda gann hall. 2003. “predicting challengers in state supreme court elections: context and the politics of institutional design” political research quarterly 56 (september): 337–349. ———. 2009. in defense of judicial elections. new york: routledge. brennan center for justice. 2015. “pennsylvania logs costliest supreme court race in u.s. history.” brennan center for justice press release, november 3. ———. 2016. buying time. available at www.brennancenter.org/analysis/buyingtime. bumsted, brad. 2014. “pa. supreme court in ‘sad state’ as scandals tarnish reputation.” available at triblive.com/state/pennsylvania/7002858-74/courtjusticepennsylvania. accessed october 25. cann, damon m. 2002. “campaign contributions and judicial behavior.” american review of politics 23 (fall): 261–274. ———. 2007. “justice for sale? campaign contributions and judicial decisionmaking.” state politics and policy quarterly 7 (fall): 281–297. cann, damon m., chris w. bonneau, and brent d. boyea. 2012. “campaign contributions and judicial decisions in partisan and nonpartisan elections.” in new directions in judicial politics, ed. kevin t. mcguire. new york: routledge. citizens united v. federal election commission. 2010. 558 u.s. 310. dimino, michael r. 2004. “the futile quest for a system of judicial ‘merit’ selection.” albany law review 67: 803–819. geer, john g. 2006. in defense of negativity: attack ads in presidential campaigns. chicago: university of chicago press. gibson, james l. 2012. electing judges: the surprising effects of campaigning on judicial legitimacy. chicago: university of chicago press. goelzhauser, greg. 2016. choosing state supreme court justices: merit selection and the consequences of institutional reform. philadelphia: temple university press. greytak, scott, alicia bannon, allyse falce, and linda casey. 2015. the new politics of judicial elections 2013–14. washington, dc: justice at stake campaign. hall, melinda gann. 2001. “state supreme courts in american democracy: probing the myths of judicial reform.” american political science review 95 (june): 315–330. ———. 2007. “competition as accountability in state supreme court elections.” in running for judge: the rising political, financial, and legal stakes of judicial elections, ed. m. streb. new york: new york university press. http://www.judicialselection.us/judicial_selection/reform_efforts/opinion_polls_surveys.cfm?state http://www.judicialselection.us/judicial_selection/reform_efforts/opinion_polls_surveys.cfm?state 102 jenna becker kane ———. 2015. attacking judges: how campaign advertising influences state supreme court elections. stanford, ca: stanford university press. hall, peter. 2015. “retiring chief justice castille says he kept faith in fellow jurists.” morning call, january 10. hansen, mark. 1998. “a run for the bench.” aba journal 84 (october): 68–72. kritzer, herbert m. 2011. “competitiveness in state supreme court elections, 1946– 2009.” journal of empirical legal studies 8 (june): 237–259. national center for state courts. 2016. judicial selection in the states. available at www .judicialselection.us. accessed may 30, 2016. o’connor, sandra day. 2008. “choosing (and recusing) our state court justices wisely: keynote remarks by justice o’connor.” georgetown law journal 99: 151. philadelphia inquirer editorial board. 2015. “low road to high court.” philadelphia inquirer, november 9. pittsburgh post-gazette editorial board. 2015. “low blows: negative ads have no place in supreme court race.” pittsburgh post-gazette, october 20. potter, chris. 2015. “special interest groups in pennsylvania funding ads targeting state supreme court candidates.” pittsburgh post-gazette, october 17. sample, james, adam skaggs, jonathan blitzer, and linda casey. 2010. the new politics of judicial elections 2000–2009: decade of change. washington, dc: justice at stake campaign. shepherd, joanna m. 2009. “money, politics, and impartial justice.” duke law journal 58 (january): 623–685. ———. 2013. justice at risk: an empirical analysis of campaign contributions and judicial decisions. washington, dc: american constitution society. skaggs, adam, maria da silva, linda casey, and charles hall. 2011. the new politics of judicial elections, 2009–2010. washington, dc: justice at stake campaign. staub, andrew. 2014. “justices behaving badly: pa supreme court has embarrassing history.” available at watchdog.org/178529/supremecourtpennsylvania/. accessed october 22. jenna becker kane, phd, is an assistant professor of political science at west chester university, where she teaches courses on judicial politics, constitutional law, and political institutions. her research interests include state supreme court decision making, interest group involvement in state courts, and judicial elections. her publications include several coauthored pieces, including a forthcoming book chapter on state judicial selection reform. structure bookmarks significance of the 2015 pennsylvania supreme court race judicial selection across the states the price of judicial elections pennsylvania in comparative perspective judicial elections is judicial selection reform in pennsylvania’s future? concluding thoughts commonwealth: a journal of political science commonwealth: a journal of political science is a peer-reviewed journal that publishes original research in all subfields of political science along with interdisciplinary articles. open to a variety of approaches and methodologies, commonwealth seeks manuscripts that are based on theoretical perspectives (empirical or normative) as well as those that employ an historical approach. commonwealth solicits manuscripts for a general issue and one or more policy options issues. an important part of the journal’s mission is to encourage research on topics of pennsylvania and regional importance (northeastern and mid-atlantic united states). manuscripts on state and local government, politics, and policy are 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mailing to ppsa members is generously assisted by the school of public affairs of penn state-harrisburg. lorl provides copies to members of both chambers of the pennsylvania general assembly, to key legislative staff, and to the presidents of each of the pennsylvania colleges and universities that belong to the lorl academic network. in addition, lorl provides copies to the national conference of state legislatures, the council of state governments, the national governors’ association, various other national associations of state and local officials, and to all pennsylvania state depository libraries. back issues of commonwealth are available online at www.house.state.pa.us/cjps. hard copies in limited quantities may be obtained by contacting lorl. speaker’s journal the speaker’s journal is a series of essays important to the future of the citizens of the commonwealth of pennsylvania. published by the office of the speaker, pennsylvania house of representatives, in cooperation with lorl, topics addressed include access to higher education, how to save for college education, the importance of libraries, autism, geospatial policy, and early childhood education. past issues will soon be available online. http://www.house.state.pa. us/cjps legislative office for research liaison pennsylvania house of representatives with initial funding from the national science foundation, the pennsylvania house of representatives established the legislative office for research liaison (lorl) in 1976 as the general assembly’s science and technology staff. lorl continues as a nonpartisan research office that enables legislators, committees, and staff to access the expertise of faculty in the lorl university network, which includes most of pennsylvania’s institutions of higher education (drexel university, lincoln university, the pennsylvania state university, temple university, the university of pennsylvania, the university of pittsburgh, the 14 universities in the state system of 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science c o m m o n w ealth : spec ial em er g en c y m an ag em en t issu e • vo l. 15, n o . 1, m ay 2009 vol. 15, no. 1, may 2009 the pennsylvania political science association (ppsa) was founded in 1939 to further scholarship within the discipline. the legislative office for research liaison (lorl) was founded in 1976 by the pennsylvania house of representatives to provide research linkage to the academic community. a journal special policy issue: emergency management in pennsylvania: selected issues © copyright 2009 by the pennsylvania political science association and the legislative office for research liaison, pennsylvania house of representatives issn 0890-2410. printed by the pennsylvania house of representatives with assistance from the democratic and republican caucuses. copyright on volumes published prior to 2007 are held by the pennsylvania political science association. back issues of commonwealth and the speaker’s journal are available online at: www.house.state.pa.us/cjps i commonwealth: a journal of political science special policy issue “emergency management in pennsylvania: selected issues” special issue editor: beverly a. cigler penn state harrisburg associate editor for policy issues: michael r. king legislative office for research liaison copy editor: barbara c. stone legislative office for research liaison ii commonwealth: a journal of political science editor in chief: gerard j. fitzpatrick, ursinus college associate editors: thomas j. baldino, wilkes university donald g. tannenbaum, gettysburg college michael r. king, legislative office for research liaison, pennsylvania house of representatives book review editor: thomas j. baldino, wilkes university managing editor: michael e. cassidy, office of the democratic caucus chair, pennsylvania house of representatives editorial review board aryeh botwinick temple university m. margaret conway university of florida roger h. davidson university of maryland jean b. elshtain university of chicago richard f. fenno university of rochester marianne githens goucher college susan w. hammond american university samuel krislov university of minnesota g. calvin mackenzie colby college michael j. malbin state university of ny, albany harvey c. mansfield, jr. harvard university kenneth f. mott gettysburg college craig n. murphy wellesley college steven a. peterson the pennsylvania state university mark p. petracca university of california, irvine h. mark roelofs new york university bruce m. russett yale university j. david singer university of michigan iii pennsylvania political science association officers and executive council 2008-09 president paula holoviak kutztown university first vice president stanley berard lock haven university treasurer thomas brogan albright college second vice president brooke harlowe lock haven university secretary & webmaster fran moran new jersey city university executive council 2007-2010 term joseph rish king’s college michael dillon lasalle university 2008-2011 term kyle kreider wilkes university joseph melusky st. francis university 2009-2012 term steven peterson penn state harrisburg john kennedy west chester university of pennsylvania ex officio members past president thomas j. baldino wilkes university past president joseph melusky st. francis university editorial staff of commonwealth: a journal of political science editor-in-chief gerard j. fitzpatrick ursinus college associate editor & book review editor thomas j. baldino wilkes university associate editor & special issue editor michael r. king lorl, pa house of representatives associate editor for political theory donald g. tannenbaum gettysburg college managing editor michael cassidy office of the democratic caucus chair pa house of representatives iv legislative office for research liaison (lorl) pennsylvania house of representatives, harrisburg, pa 17120-2218 hon. keith r. mccall the speaker of the house of representatives hon. todd eachus the majority leader hon. h. william deweese the majority whip hon. samuel h. smith the minority leader hon. mike turzai the minority whip 2009 2010 legislative committee for research liaison (lcrl) hon. james r. roebuck, jr. lorl committee chair hon. h. scott conklin hon. stephen p. samuelson dr. richard dieugenio special assistant to the president for governmental affairs the pennsylvania state university hon. samuel h. smith republican leader hon. kate harper hon. matt gabler dr. james moran iii vice chancellor for academic and student affairs pa state system of higher education 2009 2010 university committee for research liaison (ucrl) dr. richard l. rosen associate professor of history and politics drexel university dr. grant d. venerable, ii vice president for academic affairs lincoln university dr. richard dieugenio special assistant to the president for governmental affairs the pennsylvania state university dr. michael g. hagan director, institute for public affairs temple university dr. michael r. king lorl executive director dr. george e. klinzing vice provost for research university of pittsburgh dr. kathleen howley assistant vice chancellor for academic and student affairs pa state system of higher education mr. ronald uroda vice president for research aicup dr. andrew rudczynski associate vice president of finance and executive director of research services university of pennsylvania v contents volume 15, number 1............................................................. may 2009 about the authors...............................................................................vi preface by michael r. king.............................................................. viii emergency management: selected policy issues .............................. 1 beverly a. cigler, phd, penn state harrisburg utilization of private resources to supplement government resources in case of emergency ........................................................ 5 christopher j. moran, ba, mpia, university of pittsburgh regional response to all-hazards events: a commonwealth perspective ...........................................................................................17 gregory g. noll, csp, chmm, south central task force program manager managing risk in real time: integrating information technology into disaster risk reduction and response.......................................27 louise k. comfort, phd; daniel mosse, phd; taieb znati, phd; university of pittsburgh joint readiness center b pittsburgh: a model of military-civilian readiness and response .....................................................................47 george a. huber, esq.; david r. campbell, rn, ms, nha; keith g. dorman; leigh a. mcintosh, cecd; joint readiness center b pittsburgh task force residency requirements for first responders ..................................61 karen finkenbinder, phd candidate, penn state harrisburg the state role in emergency management: significant challenges ...........................................................................................75 beverly a. cigler, phd, penn state harrisburg vi about the authors david r. campbell, rn, ms, nha, is executive director at laurelbrooke landing, a continuing care retirement community, in brookville, pennsylvania. campbell holds his diploma in nursing from sewickley valley hospital, a bs in health services from point park university, and a ms in health services administration from the university of st. francis in illinois. beverly a. cigler, phd, is a professor of public policy and administration at penn state harrisburg. she is a fellow of the national academy of public administration and has published widely on intergovernmental relations, fiscal issues, alternative service delivery, governance, and emergency management. louise k. comfort, phd, is professor of public and urban affairs at the university of pittsburgh. she is principal investigator of the national science foundation project, designing resilience for communities at risk. keith g. dorman is director, public affairs for burson-marstellar, llc (burson), working with the firm’s pittsburgh office counseling clients on a wide range of communications and public policy initiatives. dorman, a native of pittsburgh, earned a bs degree at the georgetown university school of foreign service in washington, dc. karen j. finkenbinder is a former sergeant with the carlisle police department and is retired from the u.s. army reserves. she has an mpa and is currently finishing her dissertation for her phd in public administration at penn state – harrisburg. george a. huber, esq., is a professor of public health practice and associate dean for public policy at the university of pittsburgh graduate school of public health, of counsel to the office of the university counsel, and a consultant to the law firm of buchanan, ingersoll and rooney. huber has a bs from the united states naval academy, an msie from the university of pittsburgh, an mssm from the university of southern california, and a jd from the duquesne university school of law. leigh a. mcintosh, cecd, is senior vice president of special projects and executive director of the joint readiness center – pittsburgh task force, with the allegheny conference on community development. leigh received her bs degree in public administration from the pennsylvania state university and an mba in management from eastern university, and is a certified economic development practitioner through the international economic development council. vii christopher j. moran, ba, mpia, received his undergraduate degree in anthropology from indiana, university of pennsylvania. he went on to receive a master of public and international affairs degree in security and intelligence studies and is certified in public health preparedness and disaster response through the university of pittsburgh. chris served as a seabee in the united states navy. he currently works as a planner for the pa region 13 task force. daniel mosse, phd, is a professor of computer science at the university of pittsburgh. he is co-principal investigator for the nsf project, designing resilience for communities at risk. gregory g. noll, csp, chmm, is program manager for the south central (pa) regional task force and hazardous materials/wmd manager for pa task force-1 federal urban search and rescue team. greg is the co-author of nine textbooks on hazardous materials emergency response and management topics, and received an mpa from iowa state university. taieb znati, phd, is a professor of computer science at the university of pittsburgh. he is co-principal investigator for the nsf project, designing resilience for communities at risk. viii preface “emergency management in pennsylvania: selected issues” is the second in a series of policy issues of commonwealth. it is the result of the partnership between the pennsylvania political science association and the legislative office for research liaison of the pennsylvania house of representatives (lorl). in this partnership, lorl has been given responsibility for developing policy issues of commonwealth using the expertise of faculty members at the more than 100 colleges and universities affiliated with lorl and experts from government and private industry. we wish to offer our heartfelt thanks to dr. beverly cigler, professor of public policy and administration in the school of public affairs at penn state harrisburg, who served as the editor of this issue. her previous service to the state executive and legislature includes a two-year stint as a lorl visiting scholar and assistance with many lorl legislative inquiries and projects. dr. cigler is a fellow of the national academy of public administration and presently serves as a pennsylvania state university faculty associate in lorl. the authors of the articles in this symposium were drawn from the academic, practitioner and consultive communities in emergency management, public health, public administration and related fields. because this is a policy issue, the authors were asked to go beyond their basic findings and to offer policy recommendations derived from their research. these conclusions and recommendations belong to the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect the position, if any, of the editor of the volume, the pennsylvania political science association, the legislative office for research liaison or the pennsylvania house of representatives. special thanks are due to barbara stone, lorl research analyst/copy editor, who did the proofreading and layout work for this volume, and to the staff of the house democratic legislative publications office who so ably handled the production and printing. michael r. king, phd associate editor for policy issues and executive director, lorl vii commonwealth matters j. wesley leckrone editor-in-chief this issue of commonwealth marks a milestone for the publication. it was launched as a general interest journal of political science in 1987 under the editorship of donald tannenbaum of gettysburg college. commonwealth had always encouraged scholarship about the keystone state. however, as the journal evolved under the editorships of thomas baldino (wilkes university) and gerard fitzpatrick (ursinus college) the content began to focus more heavily on pennsylvania politics. in 2014, the executive board of the pennsylvania political science association (ppsa) decided the journal should focus exclusively on scholarship involving pennsylvania. ppsa, in conjunction with the pennsylvania policy forum and temple university’s institute for public affairs, approached temple university press about publishing the newly reconstituted journal. they agreed and will begin publishing commonwealth: a journal of pennsylvania politics and policy in 2016. consequently, this issue marks the final iteration of commonwealth: a journal of political science. thanks are due to those who have built the journal over the course of the last twenty-eight years. in addition to the three editors-in-chief, many others have assisted in various editorial capacities. we would like to thank michael cassidy (office of the democratic chairman, pennsylvania house of representatives), beverly cigler (penn state harrisburg), martin collo (widener university), harold cox (wilkes university), gordon henderson (widener university), mike king (legislative office for research liaison, pennsylvania house of representatives), james morse (widener university), james skok (penn state harrisburg), and annette steigelfest (widener university). on a personal note i would like to thank gerard fitzpatrick who has done everything to help create a smooth transition in editorship. he has put up with innumerable panicked emails concerning the finer points of getting a journal to press and for that i am much indebted to him. i would also like to thank christopher borick (muhlenberg college), paula holoviak viii (kutztown university), joseph mclaughlin (temple university) and michelle atherton (temple university) for their fine work in reimagining the mission of commonwealth. finally, barbara crawford, phil wolfe of phil wolfe graphic design and ashley adamik and scot cantalupo of sheridan press all deserve thanks for their excellent job of getting the final “independent” issue of commonwealth to press. information about submitting manuscripts and access to back issues of commonwealth is available at http://www.papolisci.org/journalcommonwealth. future issues of the journal will be available on temple university press’ website at https://tupjournals.temple.edu/index.php/ commonwealth/index. microsoft word volume15.doc published jointly by the pennsylvania political science association and the legislative office for research liaison pennsylvania house of representatives commonwealth of political science c o m m o n w ealth : a jo u r n al o f po litic al sc ien c e • vo l. 15, n o . 2, septem ber 2009 vol. 15, no. 2, september 2009 the pennsylvania political science association (ppsa) was founded in 1939 to further scholarship within the discipline. the legislative office for research liaison (lorl) was founded in 1976 by the pennsylvania house of representatives to provide research linkage to the academic community. a journal i commonwealth: a journal of political science editor-in-chief: gerard j. fitzpatrick, ursinus college associate editors: thomas j. baldino, wilkes university donald g. tannenbaum, gettysburg college michael r. king, legislative office for research liaison, pennsylvania house of representatives book review editor: thomas j. baldino, wilkes university managing editor: michael e. cassidy, office of the democratic caucus chair, pennsylvania house of representatives editorial review board aryeh botwinick temple university m. margaret conway university of florida roger h. davidson university of maryland jean b. elshtain university of chicago richard f. fenno university of rochester marianne githens goucher college susan w. hammond american university samuel krislov university of minnesota g. calvin mackenzie colby college michael j. malbin state university of ny, albany harvey c. mansfield, jr. harvard university kenneth f. mott gettysburg college craig n. murphy wellesley college steven a. peterson the pennsylvania state university mark p. petracca university of california, irvine kathy ferguson university of hawaii at manoa bruce m. russett yale university j. david singer university of michigan ii pennsylvania political science association officers and executive council 2009-2010 president paula holoviak kutztown university first vice president stanley berard lock haven university treasurer thomas brogan albright college second vice president brooke harlowe lock haven university secretary & webmaster fran moran new jersey city university executive council 2007-2010 term joseph rish king’s college michael dillon lasalle university 2008-2011 term kyle kreider wilkes university joseph melusky st. francis university 2009-2012 term steven peterson penn state harrisburg john kennedy west chester university of pennsylvania ex officio members past president thomas j. baldino wilkes university past president joseph melusky st. francis university editorial staff of commonwealth: a journal of political science editor-in-chief gerard j. fitzpatrick ursinus college associate editor & book review editor thomas j. baldino wilkes university associate editor & special issue editor michael r. king lorl, pa house of representatives associate editor for political theory donald g. tannenbaum gettysburg college managing editor michael cassidy office of the democratic caucus chair pa house of representatives iii legislative office for research liaison (lorl) pennsylvania house of representatives, harrisburg, pa 17120-2218 hon. keith r. mccall the speaker of the house of representatives hon. todd eachus the majority leader hon. h. william deweese the majority whip hon. samuel h. smith the minority leader hon. mike turzai the minority whip 2009-2010 legislative committee for research liaison (lcrl) hon. james r. roebuck, jr. lorl committee chair hon. h. scott conklin hon. stephen p. samuelson dr. richard dieugenio special assistant to the president for governmental affairs the pennsylvania state university hon. samuel h. smith republican leader hon. kate harper lorl committee secretary hon. duane milne dr. james moran iii vice chancellor for academic and student affairs pa state system of higher education 2009-2010 university committee for research liaison (ucrl) dr. richard l. rosen associate professor of history and politics drexel university dr. grant d. venerable, ii vice president for academic affairs lincoln university dr. richard dieugenio special assistant to the president for governmental affairs the pennsylvania state university dr. michael g. hagan director, institute for public affairs temple university dr. michael r. king lorl executive director dr. george e. klinzing vice provost for research university of pittsburgh dr. kathleen howley assistant vice chancellor for academic and student affairs pa state system of higher education mr. ronald uroda vice president for research aicup dr. andrew rudczynski associate vice president of finance and executive director of research services university of pennsylvania iv contents volume 15, number 2.......................................... september 2009 about the authors................................................................................v in the commonwealth by gerard j. fitzpatrick, editor ...........vi articles the unlikely election and service of john inscho mitchell, u.s. senator from pennsylvania, 1881-1887 ..................................1 david r. white, francis marion university judicial selection and the underrepresentation of women on the pennsylvania courts of common pleas.................................15 heather frederick, slippery rock university the removal of carl romanelli from pennsylvania’s 2006 u.s. senate ballot ..........................................................................37 blyden potts, shippensburg university viewing representative behavior through the lens of social and political identity .............................................................................65 robin lauermann, messiah college the “greening” of local governments .............................................89 arthur m. holst, philadelphia water department book reviews adams, brian l. citizen lobbyists: local efforts to influence public policy .....101 james yoho, j.d., ph.d., independent scholar v adams, carolyn; bartelt, david; elesh, david; goldstein, ira; with freely, joshua; and schmitt, michelle. restructuring the philadelphia region: metropolitan divisions and inequality.............................................................103 richardson dilworth, drexel university dilworth, richardson (editor). social capital in the city: community and civic life in philadelphia ................................................................................105 kyle l. kreider, wilkes university lamis, rené m. the realignment of pennsylvania politics since 1960: two-party competition in a battleground state ........................107 daniel mallison, villanova university madonna, g. terry. pivotal pennsylvania: presidential politics from fdr to the twenty-first century ................................................................110 thomas j. baldino, wilkes university pickering, kathleen; harvey, mark; summers, gene; mushinski, david. welfare reform in persistent rural poverty: dreams, disenchantments, and diversity.................................................111 e. brooke harlowe, lock haven university warren, kenneth. bethlehem steel: builder and arsenal of america....................114 john h. hepp, iv, wilkes university vi about the authors heather frederick, ph.d., is an assistant professor of political science at slippery rock university. she received her doctoral degree from west virginia university. her primary research interests focus on barriers to the representation of women in american governmental institutions. she is especially interested in women’s pacs and female congressional candidates. arthur m. holst, ph.d., is business and government affairs manager for the philadelphia water department. he received his doctoral degree from temple university. his research interests include local government, public works, and the environment. robin lauermann, ph.d., is an associate professor and chair of the department of politics at messiah college. she received her doctoral degree from the state university of new york at buffalo. her current research focuses on political behavior in the areas of representation and political engagement. blyden b. potts, ph.d., is an adjunct assistant professor at shippensburg university, in the department of sociology and anthropology. he earned his doctorate at the university of michigan. his research interests include structured inequality, lifestyle, formal organizations, and social capital and social networks. in 2006, he was a leader in the green party of pennsylvania (gppa) ballot access signature effort. from 2007 to 2008 he was secretary of the gppa. david r. white, ph.d., is an associate professor of political science at francis marion university in florence, south carolina. he received his doctoral degree from the university of arizona. his research interests include congressional development, particularly in the u.s. senate, and the origins and growth of “presidential advance” (the white house office and staff that prepare and manage presidential trips and public events). microsoft word journal commonwealth 2007 final 0307.doc published jointly by the pennsylvania political science association and the legislative office for research liaison pennsylvania house of representatives commonwealth of political science m a r c h 2007 • c o m m o n w ea lt h : a jo u r n a l o f po lit ic a l sc ien c e • ppsa /lo r l march 2007 • volume 13 the pennsylvania political science association (ppsa) was founded in 1939 to further scholarship within the discipline. the legislative office for research liaison (lorl) was founded in 1976 by the pennsylvania house of representatives to provide research linkage to the academic community. a journal commmonwealth: a journal of political science editor in chief: gerard j. fitzpatrick, ursinus college associate editors: thomas j. baldino, wilkes university donald g. tannenbaum, gettysburg college michael r. king, legislative office for research liaison, pa house of representatives book review editor: thomas j. baldino, wilkes university managing editor: michael e. cassidy, office of the democratic caucus chairman, pa house of representatives editorial review board aryeh botwinick temple university m. margaret conway university of florida roger h. davidson university of maryland jean b. elshtain university of chicago richard f. fenno university of rochester marianne githens goucher college susan w. hammond american university samuel krislov university of minnesota g. calvin mackenzie colby college michael j. malbin state university of ny, albany harvey c. mansfield, jr. harvard university kenneth f. mott gettysburg college craig n. murphy wellesley college steven a. peterson pennsylvania state university mark p. petracca university of california, irvine h. mark roelofs new york university bruce m. russett yale university j. david singer university of michigan i contents volume 13 2007 isbn 0890-2410 preface by speaker dennis o’brien in the commonwealth by gerard j. fitzpatrick, editor articles thomas aquinas and the overlapping census daniel dileo……….…………………………… 1 from realism to liberalism: george w. bush’s rhetorical foreign policy transition, 1999-2004 nathan shrader…………………………………23 what’s local about local television news? an analysis of 2004 election coverage by philadelphia’s local television stations matthew hale…………………………..………45 a tale of two cities revisited: the mayoral election of 2003 jeffrey kraus……………………………………79 demographic and family differences in use of early childhood care and education in pennsylvania: a 2002 baseline marsha weintraub, anne b. shlay and anita kochanoff……………………………….103 book reviews..…………….………………………………...133 ii book reviews bissinger, h.g. (buzz). a prayer for the city. michael butchko branning, rosalind. pennsylvania constitutional development. kyle l. kreider carocci, vincent p. a capitol journey: reflections on the press, politics, and the making of public policy in pennsylvania. harold cox clarke, thomas m. front-page pittsburgh: two hundred years of the post-gazette. andrea breemer frantz glasco, laurence a. the wpa history of the negro in pittsburgh. john h. hepp, iv hoerr, john. harry, tom, and father rice: accusation and betrayal in america’s cold war. andrew p. miller kennedy, john j. pennsylvania elections: statewide contests from 1950–2004. thomas j. baldino lyons, paul. the people of this generation: the rise and fall of the new left in philadelphia. barbara ferman mclarnon iii, john m. ruling suburbia: john j. mcclure and the republican machine in delaware county, pennsylvania. craig m. wheeland iii schuyler, david. a city transformed: redevelopment, race, and suburbanization in lancaster, pennsylvania 1940–1980. michael butchko tarr, joel a. devastation and renewal: an environmental history of pittsburgh and its region. thomas c. brogan ward, matthew c. breaking the backcountry: the seven years’ war in virginia and pennsylvania, 1754– 1765. diane wenger iv about the authors daniel dileo, ph.d., is an associate professor of political science at penn state altoona. he has published articles in commonwealth and state and local government review on the policy agendas and rhetoric of america’s governors. he is currently investigating the connections between aristotle’s ontology and his biological and political theory. matthew hale, ph.d., is an assistant professor at seton hall university, in the department of public and healthcare administration. he received his doctoral degree from the school of policy, planning, and development at the university of southern california. in addition to his academic work on local television and elections, he has written extensively on the use of web pages by municipalities and neighborhood organizations. anita t. kochanoff, ph.d., is an assistant professor of psychology at arizona state university. she received her doctoral degree from george mason university. her research has focused on early social-emotional development. jeffrey kraus, ph.d., is professor and chair of the department of government and politics at wagner college in staten island, ny. his primary research interests are urban politics and campaigns and elections. anne b. shlay, ph.d., is professor of sociology and geography and urban studies at temple university. she received her doctoral degree from the university of massachusetts/amherst. her research interests include the effects of low income homeownership, the role of child care subsidies in impeding child care, and employment opportunities for people leaving the welfare rolls. nathan shrader, m.a., is communications director at the american beverage institute in washington, d.c. previously, he served as deputy director of communications and legislative affairs coordinator for former pennsylvania lieutenant governor catherine baker knoll. he received his master’s degree in political science from suffolk university. marsha weinraub, ph.d., is a laura h. carnell professor of psychology and director of the developmental graduate training program at temple university. she received her doctoral degree from the university of michigan. a fellow of the american psychological association and a charter member and fellow of the american psychological society, she has published widely in the areas of infant attachment, gender role development, and family interactions. v acknowledgments commonwealth will print free of charge camera-ready official announcements of up to one page from the american political science association, the northeastern political science association, and other organizations whose journals provide corresponding privileges to ppsa. advertising, reprint information, and rates are available from the ppsa treasurer, dr. thomas brogan (department of political science, albright college, p.o. box 15234, reading, pa 196125234) or commonwealth associate editor, dr. michael r. king (executive director, legislative office for research liaison, p.o. box 202218, pennsylvania house of representatives, harrisburg, pa 17120-2218). changes of address should be sent to dr. brogan. copyright 2007 by the pennsylvania political science association and the legislative office for research liaison, pennsylvania house of representatives issn 0890-2410. printed by the pennsylvania house of representatives with assistance from the democratic and republican caucuses. copyright on volumes published prior to 2007 are held by the pennsylvania political science association. the editors would like to thank harold cox of wilkes university for his many years of service as the managing editor of commonwealth. sincere thanks for production assistance on this issue are due to the house democratic caucus office of legislative publications especially clayton dressler, elizabeth wilson, and june shirk (cover design). vi the pennsylvania political science association officers president thomas j. baldino wilkes university first vice president paula holoviak kutztown university second vice president stanley berard lock haven university treasurer thomas brogran albright college secretary francis moran new jersey city university executive council 2004-2007 michael cassidy pa house of representatives joseph rish king’s college 2005-2008 jeffrey burnham lock haven university bridget jeffrey edinboro university 2006-2009 michael r. king lorl pa house of representatives joseph brogan lasalle university ex officio members the editorial staff of commonwealth past president joseph a. melusky st. francis university legislative office for research liaison (lorl) vii pennsylvania house of representatives, harrisburg, pa 17120-2218 hon. dennis m. o’brien the speaker hon. h. william deweese the majority leader hon. keith r. mccall the majority whip hon. samuel h. smith the minority leader hon. david g. argall the minority whip 2005–06 legislative committee for research liaison (lcrl) (as of this printing, committee members for the 2007-08 legislative session have not yet been appointed.) hon. teresa e. forcier lorl co-chair hon. rod e. wilt lorl committee secretary hon. kate harper joseph mclaughlin assistant dean for external affairs college of liberal arts temple university hon. james r. roebuck, jr. lorl co-chair hon. p. michael sturla hon. marc j. gergely mary young vice president for government relations association of independent colleges and universities of pennsylvania (aicup) michael r. king, executive director university committee for research liaison (ucrl) richard l. rosen associate professor of history and politics drexel university grant d. venerable, ii vice president for academic affairs lincoln university richard dieugeneio special assistant to the president for governmental affairs the pennsylvania state university michael g. hagan director, institute for public affairs temple university andrew rudczynski associate vice president of finance and executive director of research services university of pennsylvania george e. klinzing vice provost for research university of pittsburgh james moran associate vice chancellor for academic and student affairs pa state system of higher education ronald uroda vice president for research aicup viii in memoriam commonwealth regrets to note the death on february 22, 2006 of one of the pennsylvania political science association’s senior members, dr. john “jack” hopkirk who was 79. dr. gordon henderson of widener university graciously provided the following reflections. jack earned his b.a. from swarthmore college and his m.a. and ph.d. from princeton university. in 1960 he joined widener university, then pennsylvania military college (pmc), as an assistant professor of political science specializing in american government and constitutional law. before that he taught at harper college and served as chief of the personnel training section of the new york state health department in albany. as chair of widener’s liberal arts division, jack was instrumental in the creation of several new academic departments. he also helped in establishing the college of nursing. he represented the college as a member of the greater chester movement, and he ran a college-sponsored program to find housing for families displaced by urban renewal. he participated in an institute for race relations for teachers in chester schools, and he directed an interdisciplinary institute on urban affairs. during his tenure as head of the liberal arts division, the first africanamerican professor was hired at the college. jack served as president of the pennsylvania political science association and vice-president of the northeastern political science association. he was a long-time member of the board of the philadelphia chapter of the american society for public administration. in fact, he met his wife of 48 years, priscilla, in 1954 at that body’s annual meeting. they would both come to teach political science, jack at pmc/widener, and priscilla at villanova. jack had a passion for supreme court decisions. his constitutional law classes brought to life the intrigue behind seemingly mundane legal disputes. he believed that governmental decisions were the outcome of complex personal, political, and institutional interactions and that one must look beyond official and media explanations to find an accurate account. jack carried this conviction into retirement when he and priscilla devoted themselves to a study of the 60 year long political saga surrounding the planning and construction of the “blue route” linking the pennsylvania turnpike with interstate 95. ix jack was an unrepentant story-teller. this came in handy when he and priscilla, blissfully retired, began to tour the globe with trips to england, france, egypt, india, china, japan, and new zealand as well as cruises of the mediterranean and along the coasts of africa and south america. the hopkirks also allowed themselves plenty of time to indulge their other shared passion: ballroom dancing. my colleagues and i knew jack as a man with a heart of gold. his compassion for individuals, groups, and entire communities is reflected not only in his record of public service but also in the many kindnesses he did for so many of his friends, neighbors, and colleagues. x dennis m. o’brien the speaker house of representatives commonwealth of pennsylvania i am very pleased to write a preface for this volume of commonwealth: a journal of political science. while this is the thirteenth edition of the journal published by the pennsylvania political science association (ppsa), it represents the first joint venture between the ppsa and the legislative office for research liaison (lorl)—the non-partisan research liaison office of the house of representatives. i feel that the legislature will benefit from this venture in a number of ways. first, it will encourage more scholarly research on state and local government in pennsylvania and the region. second, this joint venture will help build stronger ties between the general assembly and college and university faculty in the commonwealth, many of whom assist the legislative process by responding to specific lorl inquiries, participating in policy seminars and committee meetings, and generally assisting with policy analysis on an informal basis. it is my hope that this venture will lead to other cooperative endeavors as lorl expands its interaction with the university community in order to better serve this house and the people of pennsylvania. i send best wishes for future success of the journal to the editorial staff, authors and readers. dennis m. o’brien xi 21 federalism and the pennsylvania legislature: partisanship and intergovernmental priorities1 j. wesley leckrone widener university justin gollob colorado mesa university state governments use many tools to convey their policy preferences to the federal government. most studies of these tools focus on intergovernmental lobbying groups or individual state representatives in washington, d.c. though instructive, these studies fail to compare political parties’ intergovernmental issue priorities. our article fills this void by means of a longitudinal analysis of legislative resolutions submitted to the federal government between 1979 and 2011 by state legislators in pennsylvania. this dataset reveals varying levels of support for federal policy among pennsylvania’s legislators, depending on their partisan affiliation. introduction the primary method of studying state positions on federalism issues has been to examine the policy positions of intergovernmental lobbying groups (igr), such as the national governors association and the national conference of state legislatures. this research shows that states have difficulty achieving consensus on the details of intergovernmental policy issues. the igr lobby generally seeks federal money and decision-making authority, but its members disagree on substantive statements about how these resources should be distributed. this disagreement is due primarily 22 federalism and the pennsylvania legislature to diverse memberships that produce cleavages that divide the igr lobby. state officials construe intergovernmental priorities in light of their own personal policy and political goals. consequently, they interpret federalism to suit their partisan views and the needs of their constituents. this article examines one understudied cleavage that offers promise in explaining positions on federalism issues: partisanship. it explores the role of partisanship in determining intergovernmental priorities by examining 1,773 resolutions to the federal government that were introduced in pennsylvania’s general assembly between 1979 and 2011. the article concludes that partisan issue positions rather than commitment to a theoretical concept of federalism is the primary determinant of what pennsylvania’s state legislators have asked of the federal government. literature the division of responsibility for policy in the american federal system is fluid and adaptable (elazar 1962; grodzins 1966; wright 1990). daniel elazar argues that the “federalism of the constitution was crystal clear, just as the division and sharing of powers was left ambiguous” (1988, 43). a major issue in understanding american federalism is how states interact with washington on questions of intergovernmental power. do states prefer clearly delineated policy responsibilities so that they can retain decisionmaking capabilities without federal interference, or do they prefer federal policy intervention? are positions on intergovernmental issues inherent in states, or are they dependent on other explanatory variables, such as partisanship? literature on intergovernmental lobbying literature exploring these questions focuses on the agendas of intergovernmental lobbying groups like the national conference of state legislatures (ncsl) or the national governors association (nga). some studies examine the activities of individual organizations or genres of groups, such as regional or professional associations (arnold and plant 1994; brooks 1961; hall 1989; weissert 1983). others concern igr lobbying on specific issues or during particular eras (hays 1991; levine and thurber 1986; marbach and leckrone 2002). case studies based on levels of policy conflict also exist (cammissa 1995 and haider 1974). unfortunately, these groups have difficulty reaching consensus, not only because their memberships are diverse but also because they focus on spatial rather than material interests (cammissa 1995, 129; haider 1974, 226). difficulty achieving quasi-unanimity on positions means that igr groups address only a small range of issues, and they often do so only in general philosophic 23 j. wesley leckrone and justin gollob terms rather than with concrete policy statements (haider 1974, 217–18, smith 1998, 356). accordingly, groups take no positions on issues lacking consensus. even when policy statements pass, the positions expressed do not represent state voices that were in the minority. the igr literature and cleavages among subnational officials priorities of the igr lobbies do not accurately portray the multiplicity of subnational interests. the igr lobbying literature, however, provides instruction concerning the cleavages preventing these officials from achieving consensus on the role of the federal government in intergovernmental relations. elected officials are concerned with policy substance, but their primary goals are to ensure that they receive federal money and the authority to use funds with minimal restrictions (cammissa 1995; farkas 1971, 248– 49; haider 1974; wallin 1998, 139–40). consequently, they accept federal activity, seeking advantageous terms rather than rolling back the national presence in their policy realms (nugent 2009, 50). federal money allows state officials to “free ride” off the national government as they claim credit for implemented intergovernmental policies in hope of gaining electoral advantage (nicholson-crotty and theobald 2010, 247). this emphasis leads to cleavages as state and local officials attempt to reap advantages for their constituent interests. one cleavage is between elected and appointed officials (beer 1978). both sides advocate for more federal funding, but appointed officials prefer specificity from washington to ensure that the money is spent on their policy interests. conversely, elected officials like to use money at their own discretion (haider 1974, 223). most of the cleavages, however, are related to differences in spatial representation by subnational officials. both haider (1974) and cammissa (1995) show that state and local governments often split over who should receive direct funding from washington and which level of government should be assigned decision-making capabilities. conflict among states is also attributable to regional differences (hall 1989) and to issues related to size (smith 1998, 362). because this article focuses on a single state (pennsylvania), intrastate cleavages are instructive. such cleavages include: counties versus mayors (haider 1974, 219; marbach and leckrone 2002, 54); large cities versus small cities (haider 1974, 284); and rural versus suburban versus urban areas (cigler 1995, 144; haider 1974, 225–26). literature on partisan cleavages and federalism unfortunately, the literature on igr lobbying ignores the potentially divisive role that partisanship can play in stifling state consensus on federal policy activity. some literature concerning political parties shows that 24 federalism and the pennsylvania legislature neither democrats nor republicans have defended theoretical federalism or the interests of state or local governments in the federal system. scholarship cites three reasons for this anomaly: (1) a lack of centralized programmatic parties, (2) candidate-centered elections, and (3) the prevalence of ideology in defending the structure of government. as to the first reason, grodzins (1960) asserts that the design of american government thwarts strong political parties, thus making unlikely any coherent platform focusing on the operation of federalism. parties are made national only by joining together in “interstate coalitions” based on the collectivization of parochial interests (elazar 1972, 143). epstein (1989) extends this analysis by arguing that the lack of programmatic parties in the united states releases partisans to focus on their discrete local needs rather than on more abstract concepts such as federalism.2 candidate-centered elections encourage elected politicians to adhere to a personal agenda rather than to a party platform. truman (1969, 47) contends that the individual ambition of various state and federal elected positions leads to the “development of largely independent, hostile, and internally cohesive factional groupings” within state parties. hence, federal officials are more concerned with the impact of policy on their own ambitions than on the way it affects the powers of their home state. chubb (1985) reinforces this point in noting that members of both political parties rely on centralizing power in washington because the delivery of federal largesse to their constituents promotes politicians’ electoral success. finally, nathan (1990, 251–56) finds that partisan belief on issues of federalism is more related to ideological goals than to fixed affiliation with structures of government interaction. he sees liberal democrats as generally predisposed toward a centralized federalism reminiscent of grodzins’s marble cake model, whereas he believes conservative republicans favor contracting government and thus focus on a scheme of “dual federalism.” adherence to these principles fluctuates, however, depending on which political party controls power in washington. conservative republicans advocate devolution in times of liberal-democratic retrenchment, but they favor centralization when they are in power so that they can cut the scope of the central government. many scholars, particularly during the early 1980s, attempted to construct voting indices for federalism. like party support scores, these indices were designed to determine what types of legislators supported state and local autonomy in the federal system. all the studies using such indices found a mild to strong relationship between partisanship and support for state and local autonomy. republicans in both houses of congress were more likely to score higher on the federalism index than were democrats (schechter 1981; caraley and schlussel 1986; hero 1987, 1989; malaby and webber 1991). recent literature has found less support for this partisan 25 j. wesley leckrone and justin gollob theory of federalism, particularly with regard to the last two presidential administrations, with both george w. bush (conlan and dinan 2007; milkis and rhodes 2007) and barrack obama (conlan and posner 2011) stepping out of the usual partisan roles related to intergovernmental relations. support for or opposition to federal intervention on intergovernmental issues appears to be based more on policy preference than on theoretical federalism (krane and koenig 2005; peterson 2005; posner 1998, 36–56). this tendency receives little attention at the state level, but evidence suggests that partisanship and ideology affect opposition to federal mandates within state governments (palazzolo et al. 2008; regan and deering 2009). in sum, even though neither party appears to be completely “federalism friendly,” partisan affiliation may be an important determinant of support for or opposition to federal policy activity.3 states as a testing ground for understanding cleavages the most useful way to examine these cleavages is to study the intergovernmental policy positions of individual states. scholars have generally neglected this topic, although several have made first attempts at exploration (cingranelli 1983; jensen 2010; jensen and emery 2011; nugent 2009; pelissero and england 1987; smith 1998). these studies have been primarily descriptive in examining the activities of individual state lobbying or the intergovernmental activities of governors and their staffs. missing from this literature is a longitudinal exploration of the intergovernmental priorities of states. this article addresses the scholarly void by using state legislative resolutions presented to the federal government to explore the specific policy topics important to pennsylvania. resolutions are policy positions passed by one or both houses of a state legislature that make requests of the federal government.4 such resolutions have received scant attention in the literature, but they are a useful tool for understanding the intergovernmental policy preferences of states over time (leckrone and gollob 2010). resolutions are designed fundamentally to voice explicit preferences either supporting or opposing federal action across a wide range of policy issues (see the appendix for an example). they lack policy content when they merely ask congress to name a bridge or designate a date to commemorate a person or event. as the appendix shows, however, most resolutions include serious statements of policy bolstered by solid evidence and a policy prescription. our prior research polled legislators in several states on how and why they used resolutions to the federal government (gollob and leckrone 2011). we found two primary reasons for why legislators used resolutions. first, resolutions give state legislators a vehicle for transmitting preferences to congress and entering them in the official record of legislative 26 federalism and the pennsylvania legislature deliberation.5 second, resolutions contribute to the larger scope of agenda setting and deliberation that occurs in washington. one state legislator said that resolutions might influence the policy agenda if “a critical mass of states express the same policy goal.”6 at a minimum, resolutions to the federal government help reinforce arguments being concurrently discussed by advocates for a state. we are not arguing that these resolutions influence congress or that they affect policy outcomes (although prior research shows that state legislators believe resolutions are effective in conveying a policy position). at a minimum, resolutions are a valid measure for understanding what states want from the federal government. research questions and data we assert that partisanship is a significant factor in determining the tone and content of state legislators’ statements on federalism. we test this proposition by analyzing resolutions introduced in pennsylvania’s general assembly between 1979 and 2011. three questions guide our analysis. the first compares partisanship to other potential explanatory variables, whereas the two others take a more nuanced look at partisanship and federalism. our first question asks which of several variables affect pennsylvania legislators’ support for or opposition to federal actions as expressed in resolutions. the variables include individual (sponsor partisan identification), district (urban/rural dynamics), and state (regional influences) factors. our second question addresses the level of partisan congruence by examining the policy issues of resolutions sponsored by republican and democratic state legislators in pennsylvania. we analyze whether the rival political parties have different policy foci and whether they have differing levels of support for federal action across policy categories. finally, our third question considers whether partisan alignment between harrisburg and washington affects support for or opposition to washington’s actions as expressed in resolutions. the literature cited above reaches no clear conclusion about the level of congruence on intergovernmental issues between members of a state party and their counterparts at the national level. some scholars say state officials band together regardless of party to oppose undesired federal action. others say the ideological predispositions of the participants affect their willingness to support a federal role in certain areas of policy. we test these ideas by analyzing the relationship between partisan support for resolutions and the partisan affiliation of the branch of government addressed in the resolution. we do so to determine whether partisan identification at the state level translates into support for or opposition to partisan policy proposals in washington. we answer these questions by using a unique dataset of legislative resolutions introduced in both chambers of pennsylvania’s general 27 j. wesley leckrone and justin gollob assembly between 1979 and 2011 (the period corresponding to the 96th congress through the first session of the 112th congress). a total of 1,773 resolutions to the federal government were culled from temple university’s pennsylvania policy database project (ppdp). this project, funded by pennsylvania’s general assembly, includes a usable database containing over 100,000 bills, resolutions, governors’ speeches, state supreme court decisions, and print articles from the commonwealth (see mclaughlin et al. 2010 and www.temple.edu/papolicy). each piece of data was coded with one of 20 policy topic headings developed by the policy agendas project (see baumgartner and jones 2002, 29–46 and www.policyagendas.org) and adapted to state politics by the ppdp.7 some of the data provided by the ppdp include the primary sponsor of each resolution, the session in which it was introduced, information on whether the resolution was passed, and the policy code. the authors conducted additional analysis to assess the content and level of support for federal policy and mandates. each resolution was analyzed to determine whether it supported or opposed existing policy or actions proposed by the federal government. in addition, criteria from the u.s. advisory commission on intergovernmental relations (1994) were used to determine whether resolutions mentioned a mandate.8 between 1979 and 2011, legislators in pennsylvania’s general assembly introduced 1,773 resolutions addressed to the federal government. representatives introduced 1,288 of them; senators introduced 485. only 133 of the resolutions were purely commemorative, meaning that they lacked either substantive policy content or policy prescriptions.9 of the 1,640 substantive resolutions, 52% were addressed to congress, 21% were directed at the president, and 16.5% spoke to both congress and the president. only 4.3% were aimed at the u.s. supreme court. the resolutions were largely supportive of federal activity (62.7%). mention of a mandate, however, made legislators less likely to approve of washington’s actions. of resolutions with a positive tone, 91.4% did not mention a mandate. conversely, 70% of resolutions mentioning a mandate opposed federal action. as shown in figure 1 below, the resolutions were broadly distributed across the policy codes. the codes used most often were for areas where federal control of policy is almost complete or where intergovernmental relations are extensive. among the five most often used policy topics, defense (#1) and international affairs / foreign aid (#5) are primarily federal responsibilities; yet some components of these policy areas affect pennsylvania’s economy. for example, there was a strong focus on defense during the rounds of military base reductions that followed the end of the cold war, given the economic consequences that base closures had on localities within the commonwealth. 28 federalism and the pennsylvania legislature health (#2) and environment (#4) received attention because they are important intergovernmental programs. indeed, health was pennsylvania’s second largest area of expenditure between 1979 and 2011. the budgetary importance of this policy topic, along with medicaid’s status as a shared intergovernmental program, helps to explain why state legislators paid so much attention to health. the environment was one of the top policy topics for a different reason: 46.3% of the introduced resolutions mentioned mandates. in fact, this topic had the most references to mandates. legislators used it regularly to deride what they perceived to be federal overreach. government operations ranked third among the policy areas used. this category includes many topics related to the federal government that affect states, such as the census, election procedures, and intergovernmental relations. the last of these subcategories accounted for 3.2% of all resolutions to the federal government from pennsylvania because it comprises discussion of mandates, block grants, and general state–federal relations. in short, the overall record of attention by pennsylvania’s legislature to these specific issues is in line with expectations. results question 1: variables affecting support for or opposition to federal action. the literature highlights several cleavages that prevent unanimity among state officials when creating an intergovernmental agenda. we argue figure 1 resolutions introduced in the pennsylvania general assembly, 1979–2011. policy topic n um be r o f r es ol ut io ns in tro du ce d 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 c iv il ri gh ts/ lib er tie s fi sc al /e co no m ic h ea lth a gr ic ul tu re la bo r/ em pl oy m en t/ im m ig . ed uc at io n en vi ro nm en t en er gy tr an sp or ta tio n la w /c rim e/ fa m ily so ci al w el fa re c om m un ity d ev el /h ou si ng ba nk in g/ fi na nc e/ d om es t. d ef en se sp ac e/ sc i/ te ch /c om m un ic . fo re ig n tr ad e in t’l a ffa irs /f or ei gn a id st at e g ov . o pe ra tio ns pu bl ic l an ds /w at er m ng t 29 j. wesley leckrone and justin gollob that of these variables, partisanship plays a significant role in determining state officials’ attitudes toward federal action. we tested this argument by using logistic regression with support for federal policy as the dependent variable and measures of the contending explanations as the independent variables. the units of analysis are 923 substantive resolutions introduced in pennsylvania’s general assembly between 1992 and 2011 that address the activities of congress, the president, or both branches. the dependent variable is the support for or opposition to (0=opposition, 1=support) existing or proposed federal policy as expressed in the resolutions. the independent variables include: sponsor party identification (0=republican, 1=democrat); the regional location of the sponsors’ home districts in pennsylvania (southeast, southwest, central, northeast, northwest dummy coded); and the percentage of the urban population living in the sponsors’ legislative districts (0%–100%).10 because longitudinal data for some of the independent variables are not available before 1992, the analysis includes only resolutions submitted between 1992 and 2011.11 data for the partisan identification of each sponsor were obtained through the ppdp. the ppdp provides the name of each resolution’s primary sponsor, which we then paired with the sponsor’s partisan affiliation. the second independent variable is the regional location of each sponsor’s legislative district. the county (or counties) that each sponsor represents were identified using the wilkes university election statistics project (http:// staffweb.wilkes.edu/harold.cox/index.html). the results were then linked to a regional location using the county–region alignment adopted by the center for opinion research’s franklin and marshall poll of pennsylvania (http://www.fandm.edu /fandmpoll).12 the final independent variable, urban/rural district dynamics, was collected through two sources. the first is the census bureau (2010), which began linking census data to state legislative districts beginning with the 2000 census. using state legislative elections: voting patterns and demographics (barone, lilley, and defranco 1998), we were able to extend our analysis back to 1992. results of the logistic regression show that both sponsor party identification and the urban characteristics of sponsors’ legislative districts exhibit a statistically significant relationship with the tone of resolutions introduced in pennsylvania’s general assembly. the positive coefficient for sponsor partisan identification (b = .417, s.e. = .147, p < .05) shows that democratic sponsors are more likely than republicans to be positive in their tone. the odds ratio of 1.52 indicates that democrats are more likely than republicans to introduce positive resolutions in the state legislature. because urban districts are generally liberal and thus likely to be represented by democrats, state legislators representing urban districts are, 30 federalism and the pennsylvania legislature unsurprisingly, more positive in their resolutions than are rural legislators (b = .006; s.e. = .002; p < .05; exp(b) 1.006). although some alignment between regional location and urban/rural characteristics exists, the regions are large enough to act not simply as another measure of urban characteristics. in fact, the regional location of sponsors’ legislative districts is not statistically significant.13 these findings suggest that partisanship does influence the views of pennsylvania’s state legislators on federalism, whereas regionalism does not. question 2: partisan congruence by policy issue. the question whether republicans and democrats establish areas of issue ownership is important to the study of intergovernmental relations. if partisanship at the state level influences the content of messages the state sends to washington, it might be possible to predict the future policy foci of a state in light of the partisan distribution within its legislature. our dataset allows us to test whether partisanship had an impact on the policy topics of resolutions introduced in pennsylvania’s legislature between 1979 and 2011. figure 2 below shows that partisan differences in most policy areas are generally small. policy areas with a differential of less than 5% between republican and democratic sponsorship include fiscal/economic, health, agriculture, education, transportation, and defense. where levels of policy activity vary, however, political parties establish some areas of issue ownership. for instance, democrats are more active figure 2 party sponsorship of resolutions introduced in the pennsylvania general assembly, 1979–2011. policy topic total resolutions % republican sponsor % democrat sponsor % p ar ty s po ns or sh ip n um be r r es ol ut io ns in tro du ce d 19 79 -2 01 1180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% c iv il ri gh ts/ lib er tie s fi sc al /e co no m ic h ea lth a gr ic ul tu re la bo r/ em pl oy m en t/ im m ig r. ed uc at io n en vi ro nm en t en er gy tr an sp or ta tio n la w /c rim e/ fa m ily so ci al w el fa re c om m un ity d ev el /h ou si ng ba nk in g/ fi na nc e/ d om es t. d ef en se sp ac e/ sc i/ te ch /c om m un ic . fo re ig n tr ad e in t’l a ffa irs /f or ei gn a id st at e g ov . o pe ra tio ns pu bl ic l an ds /w at er m ng t 31 j. wesley leckrone and justin gollob on energy, social welfare, international affairs, community development and housing, law/crime/family, labor/employment/immigration, banking/ finance/domestic commerce, and space/science /communications. republicans are more active on civil rights, environment, state government operations, and public lands. additionally (as previously noted), resolutions addressing the environment frequently mentioned federal mandates, a tendency that may explain republicans’ emphasis on this issue. further testing this relationship, a chi-square test shows a statistically significant association between sponsors’ party identification and the policy topic of their resolutions,14 indicating a relationship between sponsor party identification and the policy issues of resolutions. partisan divides are more obvious when analyzing the tone of resolutions. each resolution was coded using a measure to determine whether it expressed support for or opposition to existing or proposed federal policies. figure 3 below reveals substantial differences between the political parties in their respective levels of support for federal action across policy domains. democrats supported federal activities 66% of the time versus 58% for republicans. the 8% differential between parties is unsurprising given republican ideology and rhetoric about small government and federalism. figure 3 partisan support for existing or proposed federal policy, 1979–2011. % democrat support for existing policy % republican support for existing policy 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% c iv il ri gh ts/ lib er tie s fi sc al /e co no m ic h ea lth a gr ic ul tu re *l ab or /e m pl oy m en t/ im m ig ra tio n ed uc at io n *e nv iro nm en t en er gy tr an sp or ta tio n *l aw /c rim e/ fa m ily so ci al w el fa re c om m un ity d ev el /h ou si ng ba nk in g/ fi na nc e/ d om es t. c om . d ef en se sp ac e/ sc i/ te ch /c om m un ic at io n fo re ig n tr ad e in t’l a ffa irs /f or ei gn a id st at e g ov . o pe ra tio ns pu bl ic l an ds /w at er m ng t note: * indicates statistical significance of p<.05 for chi-square test of independence. 32 federalism and the pennsylvania legislature issue ownership is also supported, for there were statistically significant differences between republicans and democrats in their support of federal policy in the policy areas of environment, law/family/crime, and labor/ employment/immigration.15 analysis of support for or opposition to federal mandates provides further evidence that resolutions reflect partisan beliefs about the appropriate role of the federal government in state affairs. republicans were more likely than democrats to mention federal mandates (21% versus 16%). environmental policy and government operations were the top two issues mentioning mandates for both the gop and the democrats. not surprisingly, republicans were also more likely than democrats to oppose the imposition of mandates (89% versus 78%). question 3: partisan congruence across levels of government. federal–state relationships could be influenced by the partisan alignment between state legislators and the party in power in washington. at issue is whether support for or opposition to federal activities is primarily a result of shared partisan priorities between the state and national political parties, or whether levels of support/opposition remain constant regardless of which party is in power nationally. if partisan alignment between state legislators and the federal government has an impact, we would expect to see more positive resolutions submitted by state legislators when their party is the majority party in washington and the opposite when their party is in the minority there. this expectation is in keeping with the literature showing that party is a predictor of support for or opposition to presidential agendas (grose and middlemass 2010) and individuals’ support for or opposition to their party’s legislative program in the states (jenkins 2008). partisan alignment was measured by comparing the partisan identity of each resolution’s sponsor with the majority party of the federal branch addressed in the resolution. for example, if a republican state legislator introduced a resolution to a republican president, then their partisanship is aligned. if the same sponsor introduced a resolution addressed to a congress controlled by democrats, then their party identity is not aligned. if a republican state legislator introduced a resolution to both a republican president and a democratic-controlled congress, then their party identity is split (given that the federal government is divided). the data analyze 1,640 substantive resolutions introduced in pennsylvania’s general assembly between 1979 and 2011. the results in table 1 below suggest that federal–state partisan alignment does not affect the tone of resolutions submitted in pennsylvania’s legislature. state legislators of both parties exhibited only middling support of washington when their party was in control nationally. they were more 33 j. wesley leckrone and justin gollob supportive of washington when their party dominated there than when it did not. yet a chi-square test found no statistically significant relationship between tone and federal–state partisan alignment (sorted by partisan affiliation of sponsor).16 table 1 pa sponsor—washington, d.c., partisan alignment on support of existing or proposed federal policy, 1979–2011. partisanship of resolution sponsor republicans hold d.c. power democrats hold d.c. power divided d.c. government democratic 50.4% support 52.1% support 63.5% support republican 46.7% support 40.6% support 50.4% support the data show that state legislators were most supportive of washington during periods of divided government in the nation’s capital. one plausible explanation is that state legislators’ support of their national parties is most important during periods of partisan division in washington. another possibility is that state legislators do not request major changes to the status quo regarding federal–state relationships during periods of partisan division in the nation’s capital. instead, they try to protect those attributes of federal– state relationships that they view as positive. finally, state legislators may attempt to influence divided government more by affirmation than by exacerbating existing partisan cleavages in congress. though plausible, these explanations require further testing before they can be validated. a similar pattern emerges in substantive resolutions passed by pennsylvania’s general assembly between 1979 and 2011 (n=710). table 2 below examines partisan alignment between democraticand republicancontrolled chambers in harrisburg and partisan control in washington. table 2 harrisburg—washington, d.c., partisan alignment on support of existing or proposed federal policy, 1979–2011. partisan control of pa legislature republicans hold d.c. power democrats hold d.c. power divided d.c. government democratic 42.5% support 61.7% support 70.7% support republican 51.3% support 42.2% support 57.2% support only a weak relationship exists between partisan control of the state legislative chamber that passed the resolution and party control of the federal branch to which it was addressed. a chi-square test finds a statistically significant relationship for democratic alignment but not for republican 34 federalism and the pennsylvania legislature alignment.17 if national party politics influenced the passage of supportive or oppositional resolutions at the state level, we would expect to see significantly more support when partisanship at the national and state level align. what is clear in table 2 is that support is highest during periods of divided government and lowest when state–national partisanship is not aligned. conclusions and future research this article has used a new means of assessing the intergovernmental agendas of states over time. a database of more than 1,700 resolutions introduced in pennsylvania’s general assembly between 1979 and 2011 was constructed to examine the seldom studied topic of the relationship between partisanship and intergovernmental relations. state legislative resolutions sent to the federal government were used to determine whether partisan differences exist in the types of issues states raised with the federal government and whether levels of support for federal action vary. the study contributes three findings to the existing literature. first, the dataset as a whole affirms prior research showing that state governments have accepted the federal government as the lead partner in american intergovernmental relations. sixty-two percent of all resolutions viewed federal policy positively, whereas negative resolutions often related to displeasure with federal mandates. state officials thus appear willing to work cooperatively with the federal government as long as their authority to make decisions is not completely displaced. second, partisanship proved to be a statistically significant factor in determining support for or opposition to federal policy. compared with other widely accepted explanations, partisanship significantly influenced support for or opposition to existing or proposed federal policy. partisanship also had a significant relationship with the policy focus of resolutions. this important finding shows there is no innate state position on the policy activities of the federal government. rather, the package of ideological and policy predispositions that define partisan differences significantly affects how state legislators and legislatures approach issues of intergovernmental relations. finally, we found some relationship between state partisanship and support for and opposition to party activities in washington, especially when accounting for partisan control of the state legislature. both political parties were more likely to support their own partisans in washington than they were to aid their opponents. this pattern, combined with the previous finding, shows an interesting relationship between federalism and partisanship. previous scholarship argued that the decentralized, candidate-centered nature of american political parties prevents a uniform, programmatic approach by state and federal officials to issues of intergovernmental relations. by contrast, our evidence shows that the 35 j. wesley leckrone and justin gollob ideological predispositions of partisan affiliation often trump state officials’ spatial identity. the intergovernmental agendas of state and federal officials are thus more nationalized than scholars have believed. drawing firm and generalizable conclusions from a single case study of pennsylvania’s general assembly is difficult. still, our conclusions go beyond the existing literature to promote deeper understanding of state attention to intergovernmental issues. studies of national and regional intergovernmental organizations allow scholars to explore areas of state consensus on federalism issues. studying state resolutions to the federal government provides a more nuanced understanding of federalism issues subject to partisan conflict. this method of analysis uncovers issues that would not be addressed by peak igr groups because passage of their policy positions requires bipartisan super majorities. appendix example of a resolution to congress: pennsylvania house resolution 775 of 2010 a resolution memorializing the congress of the united states to refrain from imposing unfunded mandates on the commonwealth of pennsylvania and its citizens. whereas, the taxpayers of the commonwealth of pennsylvania are already facing the prospect of difficult budget cycles because of diminished tax revenues and growing public entitlement obligations; and whereas, this situation is expected to grow worse because of: (1) an end to federal stimulus money; (2) unfunded pension obligations; (3) urgent infrastructure needs; (4) the general assembly’s other budgetary obligations; and whereas, according to the kaiser family foundation, 12% of the commonwealth of pennsylvania’s population is now enrolled in medicaid; and whereas, this enrollment costs the commonwealth of pennsylvania billions in public assistance programs, thus making welfare entitlements one of the top spending categories in the state budget; and whereas, the urban institute estimates the commonwealth of pennsylvania will see an additional 818,390 people become eligible, representing a 25% increase in those enrolled in the medicaid program if medicaid eligibility is increased to 133% of the federal poverty level as contained in hr no. 3590, passed by the united states senate; and 36 federalism and the pennsylvania legislature whereas, on september 9, 2009, the president of the united states promised that legislation being considered by the congress of the united states would not add to the federal deficit but was silent about states bearing the weight of unfunded mandates; and whereas, data from the national conference of state legislatures shows the impact on states will be significant from this increase with the commonwealth of pennsylvania’s added matching obligation to total $2.31 billion in the 2014–2019 period; therefore be it resolved, that the house of representatives of the commonwealth of pennsylvania memorialize the congress of the united states to refrain from imposing unfunded mandates on the commonwealth of pennsylvania and its citizens; and be it further resolved, that a copy of this resolution be transmitted to the office of each united states senator and to the office of each of the members of the united states house of representatives. notes 1 the ordering of the authors’ names is arbitrary, for both contributed equally to this article. previous versions of this work were presented in 2012 at the annual meeting of the southern political science association and the state politics and policy conference. the authors would like to thank the discussants and other panelists for their critiques. they would also like to thank their research assistant, katrina kelly, who collected portions of the dataset. parts of this research were funded through a widener university faculty development grant. 2 epstein implies that one of the reasons for the rise of intergovernmental lobbying organizations is the lack of a party devoted to protecting state and local governments. 3 the literature review focuses on the intergovernmental policy positions of elected officials. additional evidence suggests that partisanship affects the stances of citizens (kincaid and cole 2008; malhotra 2008) and scholars (kincaid and cole 2002) on issues of federalism. 4 legislative resolutions directed to the federal government are also referred to as memorials. for a more extensive overview of the origins and historical use of resolutions to congress, see leckrone and gollob (2010). 5 resolutions to congress are entered in the congressional record. abstracts of the resolutions are entered for resolutions submitted to the house of representatives, whereas the full text becomes part of the official record for resolutions received by the senate. 6 although research on resolutions to the federal government is scarce, this practice reinforces conclusions from previous studies on a federal balanced budget amendment (nice 1986) and opposition to real id (regan and deering 2009). 7 this coding methodology has been widely used in the policy field, including databases such as the congressional bills project (www.congressionalbills.org) and the international comparative agendas project (www.comparativeagendas.org). for a bibliography of the research employing this coding scheme, see http://www.policyagendas.org/biblio. 8 the pennsylvania policy database codes data by reading the abstract of the resolution created by the general assembly’s legislative reference bureau. the abstract contains enough information for determining the policy topic of the resolution but not enough to understand exactly what is being asked of the federal government or whether a mandate exists. consequently, this project examined the full text of resolutions when coding for tone and mandates. 37 j. wesley leckrone and justin gollob 9 the following is an example of a commemorative resolution: “a resolution memorializing amtrak to designate the station at 30th and market streets in philadelphia as the pennsylvania station.” 10 early analysis examined several models with a variety of independent variables that were later dropped from the model used here. independent variables excluded from this model include the average household income in sponsors’ home districts, the average social security income in sponsors’ home districts, and 10-year party competition in sponsors’ home districts. because turnover is low in pennsylvania’s general assembly, sponsor partisan identity was highly correlated with the 10-year intradistrict party competition variable. moreover, the region of pennsylvania was highly correlated with both the average household income and the average social security income in the sponsors’ home districts. 11 n= 923 substantive resolutions. the dependent variable included 376 resolutions coded as oppose and 547 coded as support. resolutions were supported by 453 republicans and 470 democrats, with 214 of these representatives representing the southwest region of the state, 152 the central region, 134 the northwest region, 103 the northeast region, and 320 the southeast region. the average percentage of residents living in urban areas for these 923 cases is 66%. 12 the franklin and marshall college poll treats philadelphia and allegheny county (pittsburgh) as their own regions of pennsylvania. we merged philadelphia and allegheny county with their appropriate regions (southeast and southwest, respectively). 13 the pseudo r2 = .03 14 chi-square test results: χ2= 48.24 (19), p < .01. 15 results of chi-square results for democratic/republican sponsor and oppose/ support: χ2 = 12.7 (1), p <.000. results for individual policy topics: environment χ2 = 3.9 (1), p <.05; labor/employment/immigration χ2 = 5.6 (1), p <.05; law, family and crime χ2 = 4.15 (1), p <.05 16 chi-square test results: republicans χ2 = 4.76 (2), p> .05; democrats χ2 = 5.46 (2), p >.05 17 chi-square test results: republicans χ2 = 5.08 (2), p> .05; democrats χ2 = 7.19 (2), 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national governors’ association: 1908–1983.” state government 56 (2): 44–52. wright, deil s. 1990. “policy shifts in the politics and administration of intergovernmental relations, 1930s–1990s.” the annals (may): 60–72. microsoft word volume 14.doc i commonwealth: a journal of political science editor in chief: gerard j. fitzpatrick, ursinus college associate editors: thomas j. baldino, wilkes university donald g. tannenbaum, gettysburg college michael r. king, legislative office for research liaison, pennsylvania house of representatives book review editor: thomas j. baldino, wilkes university managing editor: michael e. cassidy, office of the democratic caucus chairman, pennsylvania house of representatives editorial review board aryeh botwinick temple university m. margaret conway university of florida roger h. davidson university of maryland jean b. elshtain university of chicago richard f. fenno university of rochester marianne githens goucher college susan w. hammond american university samuel krislov university of minnesota g. calvin mackenzie colby college michael j. malbin state university of ny, albany harvey c. mansfield, jr. harvard university kenneth f. mott gettysburg college craig n. murphy wellesley college steven a. peterson the pennsylvania state university mark p. petracca university of california, irvine h. mark roelofs new york university bruce m. russett yale university j. david singer university of michigan ii contents volume 14..........................................................................december 2008 about the authors ......................................................................................... iv preface by michael r. king ......................................................................... vii introduction the public health system of the pennsylvania commonwealth: where do we go from here? ........................................................................... 1 margaret a. potter, jd, ms, university of pittsburgh graduate school of public health part i. critical issues in pennsylvania’s public health system public health shortage areas in pennsylvania: a barrier to health information .................................................................................................................... 7 alberto j.f. cardelle, phd, mph, east stroudsburg university deidre holland, mph, university of medicine and dentistry of new jersey school of public health crisis in the making: what’s wrong with pennsylvania public health law .................................................................................................................... 23 john a. bozza, jd, ma, judge of the court of common pleas, sixth judicial district, commonwealth of pennsylvania evidence that young children are falling through the safety net: policy implications of hunger and poor health in pennsylvania ............................ 55 mariana chilton, phd, mph, drexel university school of public health michelle renee chyatte, mph, drexel university school of public health edward gracely, phd, drexel university college of medicine part ii. barriers to building local public health capacity in pennsylvania counties objecting to public health – stories from four pennsylvania counties ...... 83 dennis gallagher, ma, mpa, drexel university school of public health jennifer kolker, mph, drexel university school of public health financial analysis and structural considerations to the problem of rural public health in pennsylvania ........................................................................ 99 alberto j.f. cardelle, phd, mph, east stroudsburg university iii part iii. innovations for health protection a health promoting hospital: a strategy in the re-design of the u.s. health care system .................................................................................................125 matthew g. masiello, md, mph, faap, windber medical center and windber research institute, and health promoting hospital consultants, llc credentialing of the public health work force ............................................ 137 bernard d. goldstein, md, university of pittsburgh graduate school of public health and national board of public health examiners pennsylvania medical assistance: connections within the commonwealth’s public health system ........................................................ 163 judith r. lave, phd, university of pittsburgh graduate school of public health margaret a. potter, jd, ms, university of pittsburgh graduate school of public health iv about the authors john a. bozza, jd, ma, is judge of the court of common pleas, sixth judicial district, commonwealth of pennsylvania, and formerly president judge. he is also a faculty member at the national judicial college, university of nevada at reno and the new judges school of the pennsylvania supreme court. recently he was a member of the editorial board of the pennsylvania public health law bench book. prior to taking the bench judge bozza served as an associate professor of criminal justice at gannon university. alberto j.f. cardelle, phd, mph, is an associate professor of health and currently serves as chair of the health studies department and faculty assistant to the provost and president of east stroudsburg university. he has served as interim vice-provost and dean of the graduate school. dr. cardelle earned his bachelor of science degree in biology and latin american studies at tulane university, his master degree in public health from boston university, and his doctorate in international studies with a concentration in comparative health policy from the university of miami. mariana chilton, phd, mph, is an assistant professor at the drexel university school of public health and the principal investigator for the philadelphia grow project – a nutrition and growth initiative for children and their families (www.growproject.org). she is co-principal investigator of the children’s sentinel nutrition assessment program (www.csnap.org). dr. chilton investigates the health impacts of hunger and food insecurity among young children aged zero to three. michelle renee chyatte, mph, is a doctoral candidate at the drexel university school of public health. she has her bs in journalism from kent state university and mph from the consortium of eastern ohio master of public health. prior to entering public health, she worked as a reporter for npr focusing on health policy and politics. dennis gallagher, ma, mpa, is an associate professor of health management and policy at the drexel university school of public health. prior to coming to drexel, mr. gallagher had a 27-year career with the u.s. department of health and human services in management and policy positions. mr. gallagher was the principal investigator on drexel’s studies to assess the feasibility of creating departments of public health in york and dauphin counties, pennsylvania. v bernard d. goldstein, md, is professor of environmental and occupational health and the former dean of the university of pittsburgh’s graduate school of public health. he is a physician, board certified in internal medicine, hematology and toxicology and a member of the institute of medicine (iom), the american society for clinical investigation, and the collegium ramazzini. he is executive director and former chair of the national board of public health examiners. edward gracely, phd, received his doctorate in quantitative psychology from temple university in 1986 and has been a faculty member at mcp, now drexel university, in the college of medicine, since then. his research expertise includes the logic of multiple comparisons, statistics education, and ethical philosophy. he serves on the editorial boards of both pain and pain medicine. deidre j. holland, mph, is an instructor and fieldwork coordinator for the graduate school of public health at the university of medicine and dentistry of new jersey. she earned her bachelor of science in health education and her master of public health from east stroudsburg university. previously, ms. holland was at the sussex county department of health and human services as the practice standards partnership coordinator under the local core capacity infrastructure for public health emergency preparedness grant and served as chairperson of the county’s community health partnership. jennifer kolker, mph, is an assistant professor of health management and policy at the drexel university school of public health. formerly, ms. kolker was the assistant director of policy and planning for the philadelphia department of public health and a senior policy consultant for public works, llc, a public policy consulting firm. ms. kolker was the principal investigator on drexel’s studies to assess the feasibility of creating departments of public health in lancaster and berks counties, pennsylvania. judith r. lave, phd, is professor of health economics, department chair of health policy and management, director of the health administration program, director of the pennsylvania medicaid policy center at the university of pittsburgh, and co-director of the center for research on health care at the university of pittsburgh. she received her phd in economics from harvard university. she was elected to the institute of medicine of the national academy of science and the national academy for social insurance and is a distinguished fellow of academyhealth. she is vi on the technical advisory group for the pennsylvania health care cost containment council. she is the author of more than 140 scientific publications. matthew g. masiello, md, mph, is director, center for health promotion and disease prevention, windber research institute and windber medical center. he also serves as project coordinator (u.s.) international health promoting hospital network, world health organization collaborative center (who-cc) copenhagen, denmark. margaret a. potter, jd, ms, is at the university of pittsburgh holding positions in the graduate school of public health as associate dean for public health practice, director of the center for public health practice, and associate professor of health policy and management. her professional interests include capacity building for public health at the state and local levels, training for the public health workforce, and enhancing public and private systems for emergency preparedness and disaster response. vii preface “a symposium on public health in pennsylvania” is the first policy issue of commonwealth. it is the fruit of a strong and productive partnership between the pennsylvania political science association and the legislative office for research liaison of the pennsylvania house of representatives (lorl). in this partnership, lorl has been given responsibility for developing policy issues of commonwealth using the expertise of faculty members at the more than 100 colleges and universities affiliated with lorl and experts from government and private industry. we are deeply indebted to margaret a. potter, jd, ms, associate dean and director, center for public health practice, university of pittsburgh graduate school of public health, who served as the editor of this symposium. her previous service to the state executive and legislature includes a year-long stint as a lorl visiting scholar and many joint policy projects between lorl and the school of public health at pitt. ms. potter presently is a university of pittsburgh faculty associate in lorl. the authors of the articles in this symposium were drawn from the academic, practitioner and consultive communities in public health and from the judiciary. although the contributors were diverse, they were subjected to the same substantive and methodological standards. because this is a policy issue, the authors were asked to go beyond their basic findings and to offer policy recommendations derived from their research. these conclusions and recommendations belong to the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect the position, if any, of the pennsylvania political science association, lorl or the pennsylvania house of representatives. special thanks are due to barbara stone, lorl research analyst, who did the proofreading and layout work for this volume, and to the house republican print shop, especially bill lang and bill laughlin, for production and printing. michael r. king, phd associate editor for policy issues and executive director, lorl viii acknowledgments commonwealth: a journal of political science policy issue “a symposium on public health in pennsylvania” associate editor for policy issues: michael r. king, lorl special issue editor: margaret a. potter university of pittsburgh school of public health editorial assistant: barbara stone, lorl peer reviewers michael p. allswede, conemaugh memorial medical center lisa bowleg, drexel university gail s. cairns, university of pittsburgh virginia m. dato, university of pittsburgh rosemarie o’malley halt, working group for a delaware county health department christopher keane, university of pittsburgh michael king, legislative office for research liaison chyongchiou j. lin, university of pittsburgh beaufort b. longest, jr., university of pittsburgh gene w. matthews, university of north carolina/chapel hill prahlad murthy, wilkes university craig newschaffer, drexel university wade seibert, pennsylvania state system of higher education steven e. shive, east stroudsburg university samuel stebbins, university of pittsburgh marleen a. troy, wilkes university c. reynold verret, wilkes university ix pennsylvania political science association officers and executive council 2008-09 president paula holoviak kutztown university first vice president stanley berard lock haven university treasurer thomas brogan albright college second vice president brooke harlowe lock haven university secretary & webmaster fran moran new jersey city university executive council 2006-2009 term michael r. king legislative office for research liaison (lorl) pa house of representatives steven peterson penn state harrisburg 2007-2010 term joseph rish king’s college michael dillon lasalle university 2008-2011 term kyle kreider wilkes university joseph melusky st. francis university ex officio members past president thomas j. baldino wilkes university past president joseph melusky st. francis university editorial staff of commonwealth: a journal of political science editor-in-chief gerard j. fitzpatrick ursinus college associate editor & book review editor thomas j. baldino wilkes university associate editor & special issue editor michael r. king lorl, pa house of representatives associate editor for political theory donald g. tannenbaum gettysburg college managing editor michael cassidy office of the democratic caucus chairman, pa house of representatives x legislative office for research liaison (lorl) pennsylvania house of representatives, harrisburg, pa 17120-2218 hon. dennis m.o’brien the speaker of the house of representatives hon. h. william deweese the majority leader hon. keith r. mccall the majority whip hon. samuel h. smith the minority leader hon. david g. argall the minority whip 2007 2008 legislative committee for research liaison (lcrl) hon. james r. roebuck, jr. lorl committee chair hon. david g. argall lorl committee secretary hon. kate harper paul s. cribbens, esq. assistant v.p. of government & community affairs and the director of the office of commonwealth relations university of pennsylvania hon. samuel h. smith republican leader hon. marc j. gergely hon. stephen p. samuelson dr. richard l. rosen associate professor history & politics department drexel university dr. michael r. king lorl executive director 2007 2008 university committee for research liaison (ucrl) dr. richard l. rosen associate professor of history and politics drexel university dr. grant d. venerable, ii vice president for academic affairs lincoln university dr. richard dieugenio special assistant to the president for governmental affairs the pennsylvania state university dr. michael g. hagan director, institute for public affairs temple university dr. george e. klinzing vice provost for research university of pittsburgh dr. james moran associate vice chancellor for academic and student affairs pa state system of higher education mr. ronald uroda vice president for research aicup dr. andrew rudczynski associate vice president of finance and executive director of research services university of pennsylvania commonwealth: a journal of political science  volume 15, number 1  may 2009 policy issue on emergency management  2009 ppsa/lorl, pa house of reps. issn 0890-2410 utilization of private resources to supplement government resources in case of emergency christopher j. moran, ba, mpia university of pittsburgh summary of the issue in a post 9/11 and hurricane katrina atmosphere and mindset, emergency management officials understand that government resources alone are not capable of serving the needs of a given population, depending upon the magnitude of the disaster. in the aftermath of 9/11, the resources of new york city were stretched not only by the disaster itself but also by the loss of first responders and emergency crews as they attempted to remove people from the towers. in new orleans there was a delayed response due in part to communication failures, but also because government resources were unable to cope with the scope of the disaster in terms of sheer numbers and were not available in terms of deployment for a considerable amount of time. understanding this issue is vital as the state of pennsylvania prepares to respond to threats, both natural and human-caused, that face us. response to these emergencies takes on even greater significance when viewed through the prism of the war on terror. the death and destruction created by a terrorist attack is a secondary goal when a terrorist attack occurs. terrorists’ primary goal is to frighten the population by making people feel vulnerable. this feeling of vulnerability is intensified when those charged with response and mitigation are unable to accomplish these tasks effectively. pennsylvania has many potential target cities for terrorist attacks. philadelphia, harrisburg, and pittsburgh are all possible targets. philadelphia has much of our national heritage within its boundaries. pittsburgh has many bridges and tunnels, which are part of major access points to the city itself. the potential for massive disruption of services into and out of pittsburgh is extremely high. in the aftermath of the oklahoma city bombing, every state capitol has to be considered a potential target. finally, harrisburg has already been specifically targeted by terrorists for an oklahoma city-style bombing on the federal building 6 utilization of private resources to supplement government resources in case of an emergency in the downtown area. pennsylvania must consider itself to have a higher than average probability of being attacked than most other states. as we face these situations it is incumbent upon us to take inventory of what we in government can accomplish with the tools and resources at our disposal. when these allocations are not enough, we have a responsibility to take advantage of nontraditional resources within our state. background there are many programs which have already been developed in response to this issue that may help illuminate the path forward toward more effective preparation and quicker responses. the community emergency response team, or cert, was originally developed by the los angeles fire department in 1985. it was then developed by the federal emergency management agency (fema) at the national level. cert is designed to train members of the community to be their own first responders. hurricane katrina made it clear that individuals and community organizations need to view themselves as their own first responders. the cert program trains people to do just that and can be built out of a school, daycare center, nursing home, or any type of community group, business, or organization that chooses to take part in the program. training is offered in such aspects of emergency preparation as first aid and communications. other training might include how to respond to the different weapons of mass destruction (wmd) attacks, including chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear. the importance of cert cannot be overstated. individuals are their own first responders. this fact is usually understated, and the usefulness of individual human capital is underutilized. people believe that government is going to come and save them, but as we have seen time and time again, this is just not the case. this program empowers individuals, organizations, and communities to better serve themselves. in 1952, the radio amateur civil emergency service (races) was established. the primary mission of this program is to mobilize amateur radio broadcasters for communication purposes when a disaster of some type has broken the normal avenues of communication. fema has provided organizational planning and technical assistance for the establishment of this program at state and local levels. the federal christopher j. moran 7 communications commission (fcc) regulates races operations and pennsylvania uses the program at the local and state levels. fema has also developed a national program called voluntary organizations active in disasters (voad), which is implemented by the pennsylvania emergency management agency (pema) for pennsylvania. voad is not a directive organization since it has no controlling authority over the voluntary organizations from which it is made. instead, its focus is primarily one of coordination and communication. organizations involved are defined by their mission and capabilities. some examples of this are: adventist community services collects food and distributes it to disaster victims collects clothing and distributes it to disaster victims collects hygiene products and distributes them to disaster victims provides counseling provides overnight shelter in some churches provides personnel for mass feeding, if necessary american baptist men collects hygiene products and delivers them to disaster victim provides materials and logistical assistance provides mass feeding rebuilds, repairs, and offers cleanup operations provides volunteer personnel voad’s programs can be at a community, county, or regional level. the program is extremely important at these sub-state levels of government because they are the first responders to all emergencies and understand the special needs of their own communities. another program worth highlighting is the logistical civil augmentation program or logcap. a number of wings of the military have developed their own programs based on logcap, but logcap was the first. it is a u.s. army initiative that uses civilian contractors to enhance military non-combat capabilities. the military has always used civilian contractors in military support roles dating back to the revolutionary war. after the vietnam war, the u.s. army realized that a system was needed to expedite the mobilization of contractors on the 8 utilization of private resources to supplement government resources in case of an emergency battlefield. logcap was established in 1985 by the publication of ar 700-137. during the persian gulf war, hundreds of different contractors were hired under as many different contracts with results that were less than satisfactory. the different contracts led to unclear mission statements and requirements. the resulting inefficiencies led to shoddy work and unsatisfied clients. this state of affairs led to a revision and expansion of logcap in order to deal with any situation requiring military intervention that might arise, whether foreign or domestic. the first logcap contract was awarded to the corporate precursor to halliburton in 1992 for services and support in somalia. since 1992, logcap contracts have been used over a dozen times and currently are used in iraq and afghanistan. this program has supported hospitals and public health in the past. some examples are: the logcap office administered the contractor operated madeleine albright medical clinic in port-au-prince, haiti, from january 2000 through february 2001. the purpose of the clinic was to augment the embassy medical staff in support of embassy and united nations (un) staff personnel and their families. the clinic operated as a trauma unit with helicopter/vehicular paramedic's evacuation capabilities. the clinic was closed when the un departed from haiti. it was containerized and stored while an appropriate non-government organization was identified to take ownership. tempo brave (june 2000 and october 2000) was a combined joint task force (cjtf) exercise for consequence management (cm) in the pacific theater, held at fort lewis, washington, near 1st corps headquarters. hq 1 corps assumed command and control of all cm operations as a jtf hq within the u.s. pacific comment (pacom) area of operations (ao) and was the lead agency, mitigating the effects and assisting in the remediation of the affected operational environment within a joint operational area (joa). this also tested the menu for the cm plan written by the contractor. this was a cm exercise and planning development for a statement of work (sow) used in the pacific theater. these examples not only show the usefulness of such a program in supporting hospital and public health capabilities, but also show its versatility. from physical and administrative support to planning, this program can be adapted to fit the specific needs of many situations. christopher j. moran 9 problem definition how can obligations and responsibilities to the communities be served with limited resources and little ability to know the size, scope, and nature of emergencies likely faced? how can resources found outside of government be used in the state’s communities in a way that is rapid, efficient, organized, cost effective, and flexible for any given situation? these are some of the key problems faced in emergency management today. emergency management personnel have the responsibility and the authority, but not the resources or ability, to fulfill their responsibilities. there are a number of options for dealing with the dilemma. this section offers pro and con arguments for each option listed below: 1. increase resources by allocating more funding for emergency management 2. maintain current resource levels (status quo) 3. increase resource availability through means other than increased funding allocations 1. increase resources by allocating more funding for emergency management pros  increased funding means that the resources developed from that funding would be under the direct control of emergency management.  resources would be able to be quantified. we would know exactly what we have and what we don’t.  those resources could be organized and allocated by emergency management service standards.  the need for coordinating with other agencies or groups would be minimized so responses would be more efficient. cons  it would be too expensive. increasing funding to buy resources for preparations that may never be needed is inefficient and takes funding from other areas that may have more immediate needs. 10 utilization of private resources to supplement government resources in case of an emergency  no amount of funding could ever prepare for every potential emergency. all funding is finite. it eventually comes to an end. emergency management has to plan and prepare for as many emergency situations that both nature and humanity can come up with. there are individual emergency situations, such as a pandemic, that would be nearly impossible to have enough funding to prepare for, let alone all situations. 2. maintain current resource levels (status quo) pros  it is inexpensive. the current level of resource availability has sufficiently handled all emergencies to this point.  funding can be used in other areas that impact the community immediately and not at some future time which may or may not come.  emergencies that outstrip the resources currently available probably won’t happen so why do anything differently. cons  emergencies by their very nature are unexpected so when one comes that outstrips available resources we will have failed at managing that emergency.  when inadequacies are known to exist, it is irresponsible and unacceptable to maintain the status quo and not address those inadequacies. it will be seen as such by the public who is underserved by this course of action. 3. increase resource availability through as of yet untapped areas pros  it is inexpensive. there is little need for reallocations of funding.  there would be expanded capabilities. capabilities can expand into areas that would be beyond the capabilities of any amount of funding to maintain.  there is no need to maintain equipment and other resources which may never be used. christopher j. moran 11 cons  we may not have direct control of resources. our ability to access resources may increase, but the resources themselves may not be under direct government control.  some sort of oversight would be required to maintain the availability of those resources.  many community resources have already been tapped. we need to explore new avenues for expanded resource capabilities. factors affecting the options as the various options are assessed, there are various factors that must be addressed. the first option of increasing the funding allocation for emergency management would need to be sold politically and to special interest groups. as stated earlier, there are no guarantees that preparations that increased funding would make possible would ever be needed. the funding would have to be taken from somewhere and those groups affected by this reallocation of funding would have concerns that need to be addressed. in addition, depending on where funding is allocated from, there may be racial or socio-economical issues brought up by special interest groups. the second option has similar factors affecting its feasibility. first, politically, if an emergency occurs that might have been avoided if resource availability had been changed, the political fallout would be serious. second, taking hurricane katrina as an example, when resources are not enough or are distributed incorrectly and disaster strikes, accusations of racism, socio-economic disregard, and incompetence surface. the third option does not take resources away from the existing budget. however, the only area of resources not currently being accessed is private industry. there are already programs that coordinate and exercise nonprofit organizations, volunteer groups, and even individual citizens. the private sector remains largely untapped and yet that is where most of the resources are located. private industry has a stake in emergency response and mitigation. fear and disruption of daily life are bad for communities and business. this option does however need to be sold politically and administered fairly. there are groups who might see 12 utilization of private resources to supplement government resources in case of an emergency this option as being unfairly beneficial to businesses with ties to government officials. there are programs like this at the federal level that have come under fire regarding this very issue. recommendations the third option is in need of exploration. how do we tap into the private sector effectively? there are programs at the federal level that may offer the state a blueprint to follow. the logistical civil augmentation program (logcap) is particularly noteworthy as a model. this is not a case for the use of military programs in domestic emergency management. instead, as explained earlier, logcap is a u.s. army initiative which uses civilian contractors to enhance military non-combat capabilities. while the military has used civilian contractors in military support roles since the revolutionary war, it wasn’t until after the vietnam war that the u.s. army realized that a system was needed to expedite the mobilization of contractors on the battlefield and logcap was established in 1985. during the persian gulf war, hundreds of different contractors were hired under as many different contracts with results that were less than satisfactory since many contracts had unclear mission statements and requirements. the resulting inefficiencies led to shoddy work and unsatisfied clients and logcap was revised and expanded to deal with any situation requiring military intervention that might arise, both foreign and domestic. the first logcap contract was awarded to the corporate precursor to halliburton in 1992 for services and support in somalia. since 1992, logcap contracts have been used over a dozen times and are currently being used in iraq and afghanistan. this program has supported hospitals and public health in the past. proposed here is that civilian contracting be used at the state and possibly regional levels to enhance response capabilities of emergency services. the recommendation is based on several basic considerations: 1. efficient. in the event that an emergency outstrips emergency management resources, private companies will likely have the equipment, expertise, and incentive, including financial, and the desire to help victims in their own region or state. if contracts already exist and only need to be activated, companies are able to begin quickly the actual work that is needed rather than working out the red tape involved. if christopher j. moran 13 contracts already exist, then there will be no lag time in deciding who should be called in to do the work. 2. cost effective. this program would require very little in the way of budget allocation or personnel resources. it could be administrated by relatively few people either at the state or in the case of pennsylvania, within the regional system of nine counterterrorism task forces. there would be little or no waste of resources in that the contracts remain dormant except in the event of an emergency that requires their use. there would be no additional storage requirements for equipment. there would be no need to train additional personnel. 3. economically beneficial. when a disaster occurs, communities, regions, and states are hurt economically. if this program were instituted much of the federal emergency relief funding that would come into the area would stay in the area with local contractors. out of state or even out of region companies would be limited to the needs that could not be supplied by local businesses. 4. provides organization for private sector response. during 9/11 and hurricane katrina responses, many businesses took part in the relief efforts. however, there were many instances where because of a lack of organization, much needed supplies arrived swiftly and then were not distributed. an example is the case of wal-mart. the company was very good at moving the supplies (food, water, paper products, etc.) into disaster areas, but had nowhere to take them and no way to distribute them upon arrival. the program proposed here would allow for the organization of the private sector response, allowing them to do what they do best. 5. avoids the pitfalls. while there could be opposition to this option, the concerns involved could be reduced through oversight processes imposed on the program. one particular issue that needs to be addressed is one of fairness in bidding and contract development process. there have been many questions and accusations concerning the awarding of logcap contracts to the company halliburton in particular due to vice president dick cheney’s relationship with that company. to avoid these types of situations and perceptions there are two safeguards that need to be in place: 1. oversight committee: an oversight committee either bipartisan or independent needs to be formed to oversee the program. this committee would be responsible for awarding the contracts after 14 utilization of private resources to supplement government resources in case of an emergency whatever process that is in place has been followed. the committee would not only have the power to award contracts, but would also be accountable for misuse of this power. 2. transparency: the process and documentation of this process should be transparent and open to public scrutiny. transparency keeps the process honest and fair. committees can be lobbied and influenced in ways that the public in general cannot. an open process allows the people to be the ultimate judge as to the fairness of the process. conclusion it is imperative to understand that emergency management by its very nature cannot ever be fully funded. if government sources can’t supply enough resources we must look elsewhere to make up the difference. volunteer organizations and nonprofits have already been tapped into and organized through voad. individual citizens and small community groups are already being trained to be first responders through cert. the private sector holds the majority of resources in the united states and has been largely ignored as a partner in emergency management. it would be irresponsible to continue to accept response and mitigation shortcomings when it is unnecessary. there is an opportunity to create a strong partner with little effort and we should take hold of it and develop that relationship to its fullest. relevant legislation existing legislation must be examined and revised to utilize the logcap model. at the state level, this includes the counterterrorism planning, preparedness and response act, which provides for counterterrorism planning, preparedness, and response by imposing powers and duties on the pennsylvania emergency management agency, the department of health, counties and municipalities; and provides for the organization of various response teams. at the federal level, the relevant legislation includes, especially, the disaster mitigation act of 2000, the hazard mitigation and relocation assistance act of 1993, the robert t. stafford disaster relief and emergency assistance act of 1988, and the volunteer protection act of 1997. the stafford act is christopher j. moran 15 particularly important in that it includes the promotion of the interests of social service program beneficiaries and taxpayers and sustains the availability of programs, nonprofit organizations, and governmental entities that depend on volunteer contributions by reforming the laws to provide certain protections from liability abuses related to volunteers serving nonprofit organizations and governmental entities. bibliography allegheny county community emergency response training program. mission statement. http://www.county.allegheny.pa.us/emerserv/cert.asp. citizen corp community emergency response training. mission statement. http://www.citizencorps.gov/cert/. counterterrorism planning, preparedness, and response act. http://www.pema.state. pa.us/pema/lib/pema/act227.pdf. logistical civil augmentation program. http://www.amc.army.mil/logcap/. national volunteer organizations active in disasters. mission statement. http://www.nvoad.org/. pennsylvania emergency management agency. volunteer organizations active in disasters. mission statement. http://www.pema.state.pa.us/pema/cwp/browse.asp? a=200&bmdrn=2000&bcob=0&c=35195. pennsylvania emergency management agency. volunteer organizations active in disasters. overview matrix. http://www.pema.state.pa.us/pema/cwp/view.asp?a= 200&q=248419. pennsylvania emergency management agency. volunteer organizations active in disasters. overview notes. http://www.pema.state.pa.us/pema/cwp/view.asp?a= 200&q=237996. pennsylvania emergency management agency. volunteer organizations active in disasters. organizational list. http://www.pema.state.pa.us/pema/cwp/view.asp?a= 200&q=247173. radio amateur civil emergency service. mission statement http://www.races.net/ what.html. radio amateur civil emergency service. federal communication commission rules for races. http://www.races.net/fcc.html. voluntary protection act. http://www.races.net/voluntr.html. http://www.county.allegheny.pa.us/emerserv/cert.asp http://www.citizencorps.gov/cert/ http://www.pema.state. pa.us/pema/lib/pema/act227.pdf http://www.pema.state. pa.us/pema/lib/pema/act227.pdf http://www.amc.army.mil/logcap/ http://www.nvoad.org/ http://www.pema.state.pa.us/pema/cwp/browse.asp? a=200&bmdrn=2000&bcob=0&c=35195 http://www.pema.state.pa.us/pema/cwp/browse.asp? a=200&bmdrn=2000&bcob=0&c=35195 http://www.pema.state.pa.us/pema/cwp/view.asp?a= 200&q=248419 http://www.pema.state.pa.us/pema/cwp/view.asp?a= 200&q=248419 http://www.pema.state.pa.us/pema/cwp/view.asp?a= 200&q=237996 http://www.pema.state.pa.us/pema/cwp/view.asp?a= 200&q=237996 http://www.pema.state.pa.us/pema/cwp/view.asp?a= 200&q=247173 http://www.pema.state.pa.us/pema/cwp/view.asp?a= 200&q=247173 http://www.races.net/ what.html http://www.races.net/ what.html http://www.races.net/fcc.html http://www.races.net/voluntr.html microsoft word volume 14.doc commonwealth: a journal of political science  volume 14, number 1  december 2008 special policy issue on public health  2008 ppsa/lorl, pa house of reps. issn 0890-2410 pennsylvania medical assistance: connections within the commonwealth’s public health system judith r. lave, phd and margaret a. potter, jd, ms graduate school of public health, university of pittsburgh introduction nationally, the medicaid program is the underpinning of the country’s health care safety net. jointly funded by the federal and state governments and administered by individual states, it is a source of health insurance for a high proportion of the most disadvantaged and vulnerable individuals, specifically low-income children and families. it provides long-term care assistance to individuals with disabilities and/or who are elderly, fills certain gaps in the medicare program, and pays providers for treatment that would otherwise go uncompensated. although the original medicaid program acted like a traditional health insurance program by paying claims to providers for services given to individual medicaid recipients, it has since evolved to being more population-oriented – like a public health system. in this paper, we focus on the medicaid program in pennsylvania, known as medical assistance (ma), and its role in the public health system. we begin with some background and definitions about the purposes and functions of public health as these concepts have evolved nationally over the past two decades. next, we provide a succinct description of the medical assistance program in pennsylvania, followed by a description of how ma contributes to the public heath system by assuring access to personal health care services, evaluating the accessibility and quality of personal health services, monitoring health status, and developing policies that support individual health efforts. then, we consider some of the ways that ma could be better connected to the overall public health system. 164 pennsylvania medical assistance: connections within the commonwealth’s public health system background and definitions the 1988 institute of medicine landmark report, the future of public health (institute of medicine 1988, 1), defined public health as “what we as a society do collectively to assure the conditions under which people can be healthy.” the report argued that there was an organizational mechanism for achieving population health and that public health encompassed the activities undertaken within the formal structure of government and the associated efforts of private and voluntary organizations and individuals. the 2001 institute of medicine report, the future of the public’s health in the 21st century, built upon these ideas and argued that the concept of a public health system describes a network of individuals and organizations that have the potential to play critical roles in creating the conditions for the public’s health. subsequent reports defined the concept of a public health system in greater detail. halverson (2002, 98) defined the public health system as "the organizations and individuals who collectively share the benefits, burdens, and responsibilities for the health of a defined population or community.” the centers for disease control and prevention (cdc) (2008) has said that public health systems are the constellation of individuals and organizations in the public and private sectors that provide information and assets to promote population health, provide health care delivery, and prevent disease and injury (including health care providers, insurers, purchasers, public health agencies, communitybased organizations, and entities that operate outside the traditional sphere of health care). all of these definitions have an unstated assumption: that the various parts of the system – the individuals and organizations – are interconnected and that they communicate with and reinforce each other’s functions. assuring such interconnectedness is not necessarily straightforward or simple. in the following section of this paper, we describe features of the pennsylvania medical assistance program that clearly function to benefit the “health of a defined population.” however, we later point out that the ma program lacks an explicit mandate for connectedness with the commonwealth’s governmental public health agencies and that this omission weakens the networks that support the health of all pennsylvanians. judith r. lave and margaret a. potter 165 overview of the medicaid program in pennsylvania the federal medicaid program was created by congress in 1965, as title xix to the social security act. governed by federal regulations, states are required to cover a set of mandated services for specific groups of people to qualify for federal matching payments. however, states administer the program and set rules for eligibility, benefits, and provider payments. in pennsylvania, medicaid is called medical assistance or ma. the department of public welfare (dpw) is responsible for its management. within dpw, the office of medical assistance programs (omap) has the primary responsibility for the administration of ma. however, the office of mental health and substance abuse (omhsa) is primarily responsible for administration of behavioral health care. program resources in pennsylvania in fy 2009, (july 1, 2008, through june 30, 2009), the state budgeted approximately $14.4 billion in state, federal, and other dollars to pay for ma. about 55% of the total cost of the ma program will be paid from federal funds, 35% will be drawn from the state general fund, and 10% will be paid for by other funds (including $134.1 million from the state tobacco settlement fund). after basic education, ma is the second largest spending category in pennsylvania’s general fund budget – the state allocates approximately 18% of the state general fund to the program. eligibility individuals are eligible for ma if they meet all of the following eligibility requirements: 1) they fit into a specified coverage group; 2) they meet the income requirement for the specific coverage group; 3) they meet the asset requirement for the specific coverage group; 4) they are united states citizens or qualified legal aliens; and 5) they are pennsylvania residents. there are five broad ma coverage groups in pennsylvania (children, pregnant women, families with children, individuals with disabilities, and the elderly), and each group has its own income and asset standards. in general, an individual has to be very poor to be covered under the program. there are subcategories within the five stated categories (costlow and lave 2007). for example, elderly and disabled individuals (with the exception of disabled children) are eligible for ma if their income is equal to or less than 100% of the federal 166 pennsylvania medical assistance: connections within the commonwealth’s public health system poverty level (fpl) and their “countable assets” are less than $2,000. pregnant women are eligible with family incomes up to 185% of the fpl while women with breast and/or cervical cancer are eligible with family incomes up to 250% of the fpl. children’s medical assistance eligibility is dependent on age; for example, children under the age of one are eligible if their family incomes are at or below 185% of the fpl; children aged one through six are eligible if their family incomes are at or below 133% of the fpl, while children aged six through 19 are eligible if their family incomes are at or below 100% of the fpl. children who meet the disability criteria are eligible for ma regardless of their family income or assets. the organization of care although ma was initially a fee-for service program, ma recipients in pennsylvania could enroll voluntarily in managed care plans starting in 1986. the healthchoices program, which was implemented in 1997 by dpw, expanded managed care considerably. this program separated physical health (medical services for physical health, dental care, and pharmaceuticals) and behavioral health (mental health and substance abuse) services. physical health was to be provided through managed care organizations (mcos) and behavioral health was to be provided through behavioral health managed care organizations (bh-mcos). the healthchoices program was phased in over time. figure 1 (page 167) shows the healthchoices regions and the date when managed care was introduced into each region. currently, ma recipients1 who live in three regions of the state (southeast, southwest and lehigh/capital regions) are required to enroll in mcos to receive their physical and dental health and pharmaceuticals. ma recipients may enroll voluntarily in mcos in other counties (if there is a mco available). all ma recipients receive their behavioral health care through a bh-mco. each county (or group of counties) contracts with a bhmco to provide behavioral health care services to the ma recipients in their counties. currently, seven mcos and five bh-mcos operate in 1some groups of medical assistance recipients such as medical assistance recipients who are also on medicare (dual eligibles), people who have been receiving long-term care for more than 30 days, children in juvenile detention centers (after 35 days), and residents of a state institution are not required to enroll in an mco. dual eligibles were required to be in a mco prior to 2006. judith r. lave and margaret a. potter 167 pennsylvania. there were 1,074,230 ma recipients enrolled in mco in december 2007. of this number, 93.4% were enrolled in mandatory managed care. figure 1: healthchoices regions in pennsylvania in 2005, pennsylvania launched the access plus program. access plus is a primary care case management system and disease management system for ma recipients. the disease management aspect of access plus provides case-management for individuals who suffer from selected chronic illnesses. in january 2008, 293,007 ma recipients were enrolled in access plus. ma recipients who live in the regions where managed care is not mandated may select a primary care physician to provide standard medical care and to serve as a gatekeeper to other medical specialties. 168 pennsylvania medical assistance: connections within the commonwealth’s public health system managed care and measurement of plan performance managed care has significantly changed since it was first introduced in the 1960s and 1970s. while it began as a mechanism to contain costs through controlling the utilization of services, it has evolved into a model for improving the overall delivery of services and quality of care. when managed care was introduced into the nation’s private health care plans during the 1970s and 1980s, a number of policy concerns arose. first, many policy analysts felt that the optimal way of organizing the health care system was through “managed competition.” under this system, health plans would compete for clients based on cost and quality; however, there had to be objective measures of plan quality for such competition to work. second, employers were spending a lot of money on health care and they began to clamor for measures to assess the results of their expenditures. thirdly, many managed care plans were paid a fixed amount per member per month, and there was some concern that health plans would limit services inappropriately. without measures on processes and outcomes, it would not be possible to monitor health plans. plan measurement systems over the years, researchers addressed these concerns, with the results that two major sets of health plan performance measures emerged: the health plan effectiveness data and information set (hedis®), and the consumer assessment of healthcare providers and systems (cahps®). the hedis® measures were developed by the national committee on quality assurance (ncqa). these measures are derived from either administrative data collected by the health plans or from data kept by medical providers.2 ncqa specifies how each measure is to be collected and measured. hedis® measures are frequently classified into two groups: effectiveness measures and access and visits measures. effectiveness measures focus on aspects of performance such as the extent to which plan members receive certain types of recommended care (i.e., screening and prenatal care) or the extent to which selected 2for example, data on the number of physician visits can be obtained from the claims data (administrative data). however, the claims data does not have information on outcomes, such as the percentage of people with hypertension who have their hypertension under control. thus, the health plans have to collect data from the providers’ medical records to measure performance on these variables. judith r. lave and margaret a. potter 169 problems (i.e., blood pressure) are under control. access and visits measures indicate the extent to which members make certain types of visits (such as “early care for pregnant women” and “well-child visits in the first 15 months of life”). while these measures were originally created for health plans that covered employed workers, they have been adapted for the medicaid population. although most of the hedis® measures relate to physical health care, some of them relate to behavioral healthcare. for the cahps® measures, developed by the federal agency for healthcare research and quality (ahrq), data are obtained from surveys of plan members. cahps® measures are frequently classified into two groups:experience measures and access measures. experience measures gauge the extent to which members are satisfied with aspects of the health plan. access measures indicate the extent to which members perceive they are able to access the services they need. as work on measurement evolved and as health care costs continued to increase, a growing number of employers, health plans, and government programs began to look for ways to link their health care spending to quality care. this movement has been labeled pay for performance or p4p. by 2008, it had become quite widespread. the federal government had implemented a number of p4p demonstrations. a recent study found that more than half of a representative sample of commercial health maintenance organizations had incorporated pay-forperformance in their contracts (rosenthal et al. 2006). a 2007 survey of state medicaid programs found that 43 states had implemented one or more pay-for-performance programs (kuhmerker and hartman 2007). performance measurement in pennsylvania managed care organizations. when the healthchoices program was introduced in pennsylvania, the pennsylvania dpw mandated that mcos report many of the hedis® and cahps® performance measures that had been developed for medicaid plans. in addition, the office of medical assistance programs (omap) in dpw developed another set of measures to evaluate aspects of mcos’ performance that were omitted by the other two performance measurement systems. the pennsylvaniaspecific measures include items such as the extent to which children under six have been screened for lead poisoning or received dental 170 pennsylvania medical assistance: connections within the commonwealth’s public health system sealants. omap publishes information on plan performance of 27 of these measures on its website (pennsylvania department of public welfare, office of medical assistance programs 2007). in 2005, omap took another step to promote overall improvement in mcos’ performance by introducing a pay-for-performance system. it set aside over $19 million to pay plans that improved their performances based on a complex formula. table 1, below, lists the performance measures that are publicly reported as well as the set of measures used in the pay-for-performance program. these measures, which are a small subset of the total number of measures reported to the state, illustrate the type of data collected. table 1: publicly reported performance measures and measures used for pay-for-performance: pennsylvania, 2003-2006 performance program measurement category performance measures experience satisfaction with plan* satisfaction with child’s plan* choosing a doctor you are happy with* satisfaction with specialist* cahps® access® seeing a specialist* getting an appointment with your doctor or nurse* getting necessary care* waiting for plan approval* judith r. lave and margaret a. potter 171 performance program measurement category performance measures effectiveness cholesterol management screening (after cv events)* cholesterol management: ldl control <100# controlling high blood pressure*# eye check-ups for people with diabetes* diabetes: hba1c control# diabetes: cholesterol ldl control < 100# cervical cancer screening*# breast cancer screening# use of appropriate medications for people with asthma# hedis® access and visits early care for pregnant women*# regular prenatal care* regular check-ups for children 3-6 months* well-child visits in the first 15 months of life* doctor visits for children 7-11 years old* doctor visits for people 45-64 years old* doctor visits for people 65 years and older* adolescent well-child care# pennsylvania-specific measures finding cervical cancer in women with hiv* blood lead screening for children under 19 months*# blood lead screening: age 3 years# bmi screening at regular check up* satisfaction with dental care* dental sealants for children* regular dental care, ages 3-20 years old* annual dental visits for those with development disabilities* emergency room visits for asthma* key: * these performance measures are posted on the dpw web site. # these measures were included in the pay-for-performance program. 172 pennsylvania medical assistance: connections within the commonwealth’s public health system behavioral health managed care organizations. dpw requires that the bh-mcos report on several measures including the few hedis® measures that have been developed for behavioral health (such as “patients should be followed up within specified time periods within a certain number of days after they were discharged from a hospital”). dpw also has set specific goals for selected measures (such as “involuntary admissions should decrease over time” and “less than 10% of hospitalized patients should be readmitted within 30 days”). dpw’s office of mental health and substance abuse services (omhsas) reports on the performance of the bh-mcos through its quarterly monitoring reports (pennsylvania department of public welfare, office of mental health and substance abuse services 2008). these reports include information on individual performance improvement projects, adult involuntary admissions, 30-day readmissions, complaints, denials, grievances, and consumer satisfaction. access plus. the reporting requirements under the access plus program are somewhat different. the bureau of fee-for-service, within omap, mines its administrative database to calculate measures of clinical quality of care and medical utilization measures for this program. it models the development of these measures after the technical specifications for the hedis® measures (pennsylvania department of public welfare, bureau of fee-for-service 2005). in addition, omap requires the disease management companies to report on processes of care, as well as clinical outcomes. omap has also introduced a pay-for-performance system for the disease management component of that system. medical assistance and essential public health services the definition of what a public health system does is wellestablished in the concept of “ten essential services” (public health functions steering committee 1994) shown in table 2 (page 173). a brief review of the ten essential services shows that ma contributes significantly to at least four of them. in order of priority for discussion in this paper, these four essential services are: 1) assuring access to personal health care services; 2) evaluating the accessibility and quality of personal health services; 3) monitoring health status; and 4) developing policies that support individual health efforts. judith r. lave and margaret a. potter 173 table 2: the ten essential services of public health (public health functions steering committee, 1993)* 1 monitor health status to identify community health problems 2 diagnose and investigate health problems and health hazards in the community 3 inform, educate, and empower people about health issues 4 mobilize community partnerships to identify and solve health problems 5 develop policies and plans that support individual and community health efforts 6 enforce laws and regulations that protect health and ensure safety 7 link people to needed personal health services and assure the provision of health care when otherwise unavailable 8 assure a competent public health and personal health care workforce 9 evaluate effectiveness, accessibility, and quality of personal and populations based health services 10 research for new insights and innovative solutions to health problems *entries in boldface type are those addressed in this paper as contributed in whole or in part by the pennsylvania medical assistance program. assuring access to personal health care services essential service #7 calls upon a public health system to “link people to needed personal health services and assure the provision of health care when otherwise unavailable.” the availability of health services depends not only on payment for services by or on behalf of those who need them, but also on the location of services and service providers even in areas of sparse population density. ma provides a health care plan and coverage for a large proportion of the pennsylvania population. 174 pennsylvania medical assistance: connections within the commonwealth’s public health system enrollment. in december 2007, 1,893,949 individuals, or about 15% of the population of the commonwealth of pennsylvania, were covered under ma. medical assistance covered almost 33% of the children in pennsylvania. in addition, ma pays for about 41% of the births in the state.3 it also covered 513,946 individuals with disabilities, many of whom are individuals with severe mental illness.4 on an average month, ma covers about 38,808 children with disabilities (about 10.3% of the disabled ma population) and 1,165 women with breast and/or cervical cancer. since eligibility for ma is tied to income, the distribution of ma recipients varies across the pennsylvania counties depending on the general level of income in the county. figure 2 (page 175) shows the percentage of births covered by ma in 2005 and 2006, while figure 3 (page 176) shows the percentage of children enrolled in ma in 2006. we focus on these groups because of the importance of medical care services, particularly prenatal and preventive care services, to the birth outcomes and the development of children. as shown in figure 2, there is wide variation across the counties in the percentage of births that are covered by ma – the percentage ranges from 18% in montgomery county to 64% in philadelphia county. these data indicate the importance for rural areas and for the poor. there were 21 counties where the proportion of births paid for by ma exceeded 50%. these counties were primarily rural counties – 17 were rural counties, two (fayette and pike) were fringe counties of a metro area with a population of million or more, and only two counties (erie and philadelphia) were metropolitan counties (u.s. department of agriculture 2003).5 furthermore, with one exception (pike), the median family income in each of these counties was well below the median family income for the state: in 1999, the average median family income in these counties was $32,850 while the median family income in the state was $40,106 (wickipedia 2008). 3these two percentages refer to 2006. 4we do not report the percent of people with disabilities who are covered under medicaid because we do not know the denominator. 5all non-metropolitan counties are classified here as rural counties. judith r. lave and margaret a. potter 175 figure 2: percent of county newborns covered by medical assistance: 2005-2006 figure 3 (next page) shows that, as with births, there is wide variation across counties in the percentage of children who are enrolled in ma. it ranges from 12% in chester county to 63% in philadelphia county. there are three counties where more than 50% of the children and nine counties where between 40% and 49% of the children, are enrolled in ma. figure 4 (page 177) shows the relationship between the proportion of children covered by medicaid in a county and the county median income. these data reinforce the importance of ma for the poor. provider participation. a medical assistance card is not of much value if individual providers do not accept ma recipients. individual providers can choose whether to accept ma patients. some providers in pennsylvania, primarily dentists, do not participate in the medical assistance program at all or they only accept a small number of ma patients because, they argue, the payment rates are very low. pennsylvania medical assistance payment rates are in fact low. for example, the kaiser family foundation reports that in 2003, physician fees under pennsylvania’s medicaid program were low relative to 176 pennsylvania medical assistance: connections within the commonwealth’s public health system medicare payment rates and to medicaid rates nationally (henry j. kaiser family foundation 2003). pennsylvania ranked 46th among all states in the level of payments for all services, primary care, and other services; and it ranked 30th among all states in the level of payments for obstetric care. figure 3: percent of children in county covered by medical assistance: 2005 by using a managed care model for its medicaid program, dpw increases the attractiveness of ma and thus improves access to care for enrollees. the dpw’s contract with the managed care organizations usually specifies that the mcos have a large enough network to serve the enrolled medicaid recipients. there are specific provisions built into the contracts (factors such as time to appointment) that are meant to ensure that medicaid recipients have access to the system. this means that the mcos have to work hard to build their networks. one result is that ma mcos in pennsylvania usually have payment rates that are above the formal medicaid payment rates but below the medicare payment rates (personal communication 2008). judith r. lave and margaret a. potter 177 figure 4: 2006 percentage of county population on medicaid by the 2003 percentage of people in county below the poverty income level* 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% % of population in county below poverty % o f p o p u la ti o n in c o u n ty o n m ed ic ai d * we do not have 2006 data on the percent of the population in each county that falls below the poverty level. evaluating the accessibility and quality of personal health services public health essential service #9 calls for a public health system to “evaluate effectiveness, accessibility, and quality of personal and population-based health services.” pennsylvania’s medical assistance program carries out this requirement – at least addressing the quality of personal health care services – by using a system of performance measures to which its mco plan contractors are held accountable. 178 pennsylvania medical assistance: connections within the commonwealth’s public health system omap and omhsa use the reported information to monitor the performance of the medical assistance mcos. the general expectation is that the availability of this kind of information would help drive plan improvement. both the mcos and the bh-mcos are given information on the performance of other plans as well as national benchmark information which is available for the hedis® and the cahps® data. furthermore, much of these data are provided to other stakeholders – particularly advocates for various groups.6 furthermore, three mcos compete for ma recipients in the three regions where managed care enrollment is mandatory. the data are meant to inform the choices of ma recipients in choosing a mco and to spark improvements in quality. finally, the implementation of pay for performance should be an additional stimulus to improvements in plan performance. mcos. lave and riaz (2008) examined the performance of pennsylvania mcos between 2003 and 2005. with respect to general access, they found that in 2005, the proportion of recipients who said that seeing a specialist was not a problem ranged across the plans from 58% to 74%. furthermore, they found that the proportion of recipients who said that they could always see their doctor or nurse right away when they needed care ranged from 46% to 74%. these data indicate that there are some access problems. in looking at improvement in plan performance, they found that five of the seven plans had improved their performance on at least half of the performance measures that could be compared. however, overall performance on the cahps® data deteriorated over this time period. they also found that there was large variation in performance across the mcos. the results for the pay-for-performance program for 2006 also indicated variation in improvement across the plans. one plan received payouts for improvements in nine measures, one received payouts for improvements in seven measures, two received payouts for improvements in three measures, and three received payouts for improvements in only one measure (kelly undated). bh-mcos. the omhsas quarterly monitoring reports provide information on the plan performance in the southeast, southwest and lehigh/capital region (department of public welfare, office of mental health and substance abuse services 2008). the data suggest that there 6the data on outcomes for the bh-mcos have been available to the advocates for the mentally ill. judith r. lave and margaret a. potter 179 is considerable variation in performance across the regions and within the regions across the counties. furthermore, there were few significant trends in the data across all of the plans. general readmission rates did decrease somewhat between 2005 and 2007. the number of readmissions for the severely mentally ill (which was a focus of specific performance improvement plans) also fell. access plus. omap has examined change over time in performance on several measures. of the 18 measures where they could compare performance between 2005 and 2006, omap found that performance on 13 measures improved (four statistically significantly) and on five performance measures deteriorated (one statistically significantly). only one formal quality report, which looks at performance in 2005, has been prepared.7 monitoring health status essential service #1 is to “monitor health status.” this requires a public health system to collect and analyze data affecting the population’s health across several threat categories including infectious diseases, chronic diseases, injuries, and environmental hazards. pennsylvania, like most other states, allocates responsibility for mitigating these threats across numerous state agencies; and, for the ma enrollees, several aspects of program services yield information that could fulfill the need to monitor health status. we noted above that pennsylvania monitors the performance of the mcos, the performance of bh-mcos, the performance of care managers in access plus for individuals who suffer from selected conditions, and the health utilization data for individuals enrolled in access plus. some of these measures are indirectly related to health (such as prenatal care) whereas others are directly related to health (the extent to which blood pressure and ldl are controlled). the number of measures monitored by these various systems is very large. furthermore, ma complies with the requirements of the federal early, periodic screening, diagnosis and treatment program (epstd), which requires 7access plus – hedis® 2006-2007 rates were provided to the authors from the deputy secretary’s office of the bureau of fee for service, pennsylvania department of public welfare. 180 pennsylvania medical assistance: connections within the commonwealth’s public health system that all enrolled children are tested for specified environmental toxins such as lead exposure. developing policies that support individual health efforts essential service #5 requires the public health system to “develop policies that support health efforts.” at the state level, this includes health planning based on data that tracks measurable health objectives and establishes how to guide health improvement efforts. pennsylvania has developed a number of programs within ma that support individual health efforts. one policy is pay-for-performance, which incentivizes the mcos and the care managers in the fee-for-service sectors to exceed certain performance targets. a second policy is the implementation of smoking cessation programs for pregnant women. a third policy is the development of a set of fees that will enable the program to pay physicians for many services provided to manage the weight of their overweight patients. medical assistance and the pennsylvania public health system a major function of the public health system is to assure access to health care services throughout the population. the foregoing discussion demonstrates that pennsylvania medical assistance or ma, functioning as a managed care program through access plus, carries out at least four of the ten essential services of public health as they relate to the health care needs of the most disadvantaged and vulnerable residents in the state. ma monitors health status by tracking measures of performance on processes of care that are highly correlated with health outcomes (such as whether a pregnant woman had early prenatal care and whether children are receiving well-child visits) and by assessing certain types of outcomes such as whether the blood pressure of people with hypertension is controlled and whether the cholesterol levels of people who have had a cardiovascular event are within clinical guidelines. pennsylvania ma has developed policies and plans to improve health care, implement a pay-for-performance system, and contract with the bh-mcos to initiate plan improvement projects. ma links people to needed personal health services: it pays for about 40% of the births in the state, covers about 33% of the children in the state, and provides for the health care of individuals with physical or mental disabilities and for judith r. lave and margaret a. potter 181 the elderly. ma evaluates effectiveness, accessibility, and quality of health services by building and maintaining the technical capacity to assess the type of care that is being provided through the fee-for-service system and thereby assessing the managed care organizations through which it contracts. nevertheless, a comprehensive approach requires that we consider also those essential public health services that ma does not carry out or does not carry out alone. ma serves only a portion – albeit a large and particularly vulnerable portion – of the commonwealth’s entire population. although ma provides some public health services to many, the majority of pennsylvanians are served by other health care plans or by no plans at all. if there is to be effective linkage of all pennsylvanians to needed health care as essential service #7 requires, then sharing information about counties where needed services are unavailable can help other public health agencies to prioritize direct-service programs and to supplement the delivery of needed care to underserved populations. the same kind of interagency cooperation is necessary also to monitor the health of all residents (essential service #1), to support statewide health policy development (essential service #5), and to evaluate how well statewide health plans are performing (essential service #9). ma’s public health services should be integrated with those provided throughout the public health system. for example, if the incidence of lead exposure detected among children in the ma program is never reported to an agency with authority to “diagnose and investigate … health hazards in the community” (essential service #2), then ever more children will suffer the consequences of lead exposure. if the ma program functions only as a way to pay health care providers, then its recipient population is not benefiting from disease prevention approaches that “inform, educate, and empower people about health issues” (essential service #3) or that “mobilize community partnerships to identify and solve health problems” (essential service #4). the ma program lacks authority to enforce public health laws to protect health and safety (essential service #6), so its health-care contractors do not conduct the “contact-tracing” needed to prevent the spread of certain dangerous infections such as hiv. although the ma program contributes to assuring a competent health workforce (essential service #8) and to 182 pennsylvania medical assistance: connections within the commonwealth’s public health system researching for new insights and solutions for health problems (essential service #9), those contributions are uncoordinated with other health and human service agencies in the commonwealth. state government holds the responsibility to coordinate among all public agencies and private organizations contributing public health services, and coordination requires communication through joint planning and data sharing. as stated by the institute of medicine, “states are and must be the central force in public health. they bear primary public sector responsibility for health” (1988, 143). among the numerous public health duties of state government, those particularly important for inclusion of a medicaid program are “assessment of health needs within the state based on statewide data collection” and “assurance of an adequate statutory base for health activities in the state” (institute of medicine 1988, 143). conclusions in pennsylvania, the responsibility for all ten essential public health services is distributed among several agencies of state government, local health departments, and non-governmental entities. nevertheless, the commonwealth retains the obligation and the powers to assure that all ten essential services are being carried out and to maintain coordination and communication among the responsible agencies and organizations. the medical assistance program performs some of the essential public health services, but only for its enrolled population and without formal coordination with those agencies and organizations responsible for other essential services and other population groups. pennsylvania’s legislative policymakers should consider ways to explicitly link the public health aspects of the ma program with the larger public health system. two approaches to consider, both of which are currently used by other states, include:  making the ma program accountable to a statewide public health policy board: such accountability would take advantage of the excellent systems of ma quality oversight already in place and could judith r. lave and margaret a. potter 183 contribute to more robust public health programs elsewhere in state government.  sharing aggregated public health data: ma performance data can inform the public health system about the incidence of toxin-induced diseases in children, the sources of air-borne and water-borne toxic substances, and the geographic location of potential disease clusters. ma disease incidence data could help to inform the state’s allocation of federal dollars from categorical and block grants. references centers for disease control and prevention. coordinating office for terrorism preparedness and emergency response. 2008. preparedness and emergency response research centers: a public health systems approach. frequently asked questions. http://emergency.cdc.gov/planning/faq2008foa.asp (accessed july 21, 2008). costlow, monica r., and judith r. lave. 2007. faces of the pennsylvania medicaid program. pennsylvania medicaid policy center, university of pittsburgh. http://pamedicaid.pitt.edu/documents/facesofmedicaid.pdf (accessed february 3, 2008). halverson, paul k. 2002. “embracing the strength of the public health system: why strong government public health agencies are vitally necessary but insufficient.” journal of public health management and practice 8 (1): 98-100. henry j. kaiser family foundation. 2003. “medicaid physician fee index, 2003.” statehealthfacts.org. http://www.statehealthfacts.org/comparetable.sp?ind=195and cat=4 (accessed july 22, 2008). institute of medicine. 1988. the future of public health. washington, dc: national academy press. institute of medicine. 2003. the future of the public’s health in the 21st century. washington, dc: national academy press. kuhmerker, kathryn, and thomas hartman. 2007. “pay-for-performance in state medicaid programs: a survey of state medicaid directors.” the commonwealth fund. http://company.ipro.org/shared/pubs/p4p_state_medicaid_progs_report.pdf (accessed july 28, 2008). kelly, david, medical director, office of medical assistance programs. undated. “pay for performance, 2007 update. improving quality in health care.” slide presentation made available to the authors. lave, judith r., and salma riaz. 2008. performance of medicaid managed care plans enrolling medicaid recipients between 2002 and 2006. pennsylvania medicaid policy center, university of pittsburgh. http://pamedicaid.pitt.edu/documents/ 184 pennsylvania medical assistance: connections within the commonwealth’s public health system performance%20of%20pa%20mcos%20-%20final2%20b%20_3_.pdf (accessed july 28, 2008). pennsylvania department of public welfare. bureau of fee for service. 2005. clinical quality of care and medical utilization measures for access plus 2005. modeled after the technical specifications for hedis® 2006. provided to the authors. pennsylvania department of public welfare. office of medical assistance programs. 2007. a consumer’s guide to the healthchoices health plans. http://www.dpw. state.pa.us/resources/documents/pdf/publications/healthchoices/2007healthchoice scomparison-eng.pdf (accessed july 28, 2008). pennsylvania department of public welfare, office of mental health and substance abuse services. 2008 qmr. quarterly monitoring report. third quarter 2007. march 17, 2008. (these reports will be posted the report section of the omhsa website. http://www.dpw.state.pa.us/about/omhsas/. personal communication. michael blackwood, gateway health plan. july 24, 2008. public health functions steering committee. 1994. public health in america. http://www.health.gov/phfunctions/public.htm (accessed july 21, 2008). rosenthal, meredith b., bruce e. landon, sharon-lise t. normand, richard g. frank, arnold m. epstein. 2006. “pay for performance in commercial hmos.” new england journal of medicine 355 (18): 1895-1902. u.s. department of agriculture. economic research service. 2003. urban-rural continuum codes for pa. http://www.ers.usda.gov/data/ruralurbancontinuum codes/ 2003/lookuprucc.asp?c=randst=pa (accessed july 28, 2008). data from the 2000 u.s. census as reported by http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ pennsylvania_counties_by_per_capita_income (accessed july 23, 2008). 63 three strikes and you’re out? why three republican governors failed to privatize pennsylvania’s state liquor monopoly george hale kutztown university of pennsylvania after the repeal of prohibition in 1933, pennsylvania adopted one of the nation’s strongest governmental monopolies for the sale of wine and spirits. since 1980, three republican governors—dick thornburgh, tom ridge, and tom corbett—have tried to privatize the state’s monopoly. despite support from more than 60% of the public, they failed. james q. wilson’s work on client politics, where costs are widely distributed and benefits are narrowly concentrated, partly explains why the state’s liquor policy is difficult to change. in addition, unionized workers in the state-owned liquor stores, the primary beneficiaries of the policy, are supported by the democrats in the general assembly. moreover, the republican governors were supported by only about half the republican lawmakers, who were divided among themselves. so far the potential beneficiaries of privatization have been unorganized and on the sidelines. the evidence suggests that governors acting alone cannot change policy. client politics and morality politics are likely to continue to block major reforms until or unless the issue is moved into the arena of interest group politics that wilson describes. introduction pennsylvania is one of only two states operating a governmental monopoly of the selling of wine and spirits at both the wholesale and retail levels. this policy dates from the repeal of prohibition in 1933 (schell 2006, 77), but it is supported by only a third of the state’s residents (george 1997; madonna 2012). nonetheless, three republican governors—dick 64 three strikes and you’re out? thornburgh, tom ridge, and tom corbett during the first two years of his term—tried but failed to privatize the state liquor monopoly. privatization of the sale of alcoholic beverages periodically surfaces as an issue for several reasons. first, many people view the monopoly system as expensive and inefficient. others consider the sale of alcoholic beverages to be a matter best left to the private sector, as is the case in most states. furthermore, the sale of state liquor stores (“state stores”) and the auction of private licenses can provide a significant one-time infusion of revenue. on the other hand, supporters of the system argue that it provides well-paid jobs with good benefits. religious and social groups like mothers against drunk driving (madd) oppose the private sale of alcoholic beverages out of fear that it could cause increased consumption and related social problems. finally, opponents believe the state would lose ongoing revenues associated with the profits generated by state stores. research findings are mixed and support some claims on each side of the debate. public financial management (pfm) concludes that the pennsylvania liquor control board (plcb) has high personnel costs compared with other states (public financial management 2011). economists seim and waldfogel (2013, 835) contend that states with private liquor retailing have lower labor costs. they find that unionized store workers averaged $43,680 in pay and benefits in 2007 compared with $21,000 for private employees in other states. additionally, state stores average 7.9 employees compared with 4.6 employees in privately owned stores. seim and waldfogel (2013,850) also claim that the governmental system inconveniences consumers who must drive longer distances to shop. while the state operates only 600 stores, a private system could address potential demand for at least 1,500 stores. nonetheless, some areas of the state benefit from the monopoly. rural areas have better coverage than might occur under a free-market approach because 198 of 203 legislative districts have one or more state stores. seim and waldfogel (2013) uncover no systematic evidence that prices for wine and spirits are higher in pennsylvania than in neighboring states, yet many consumers believe otherwise. pfm estimates that 10%–30% of total sales for alcoholic beverages are lost to neighboring states through what is termed “border bleed” (public financial management 2011, 9). the system also appears to result in approximately 15% lower alcohol consumption than in neighboring states (seim and waldfogel 2013, 852). yet when pfm compared pennsylvania with surrounding states, it found no clear relationship between whether a state uses either a public or a private system for selling alcoholic beverages and either its alcohol-related motor vehicle fatalities or its rate of underage drinking (public financial management 2011, 11). 65 george hale on balance, the evidence suggests that unionized employees are major beneficiaries of current policy and that the public is inconvenienced. pennsylvanians travel longer distances to purchase alcoholic beverages, and a significant volume of business “bleeds” into surrounding states. conversely, reduced consumption is viewed by others as a social benefit. finally, state stores are less efficient and less profitable than private stores, but the plcb does transfer approximately $90 million to the state’s general fund annually. to understand why three governors failed to change the state’s policy for the sale of alcoholic beverages, i examine the creation of the state monopoly and then consider models of policy making that may explain why policy proves to be so resistant to change. i then review the three governors’ efforts to reform public policy and identify some obstacles to changing long-established policy. creating the governmental monopoly prohibition was an effort by protestant, middle class, and rural americans to reassert their values over a growing catholic, immigrant, and urban population (gusfeld 1963). the repeal of prohibition came swiftly in 1933 when the democratic landslide of 1932 was interpreted as a referendum on the issue. the twenty-first amendment repealing prohibition granted states power to control the sale of alcoholic beverages. states could remain “dry” and eight southern and plains states chose to do so. many states, including pennsylvania, also gave their local governments the option to remain “dry.” for states allowing the sale of alcoholic beverages, the major options were a licensing system or a monopoly system with government stores selling directly to the public. the monopoly option was promoted to address problems thought to be associated with private enterprise, including favoritism in licensing, political corruption, and overconsumption. initially, 15 states adopted the monopoly model and 25 established a licensing system (meier 1994, 161). in pennsylvania, republican governor gifford pinchot, a progressive and a “dry,” pushed to establish the nation’s first governmental monopoly for the sale of wine and spirits. according to one observer at the time, pinchot “is an out-and-out dry. he is just as dry in a wet city when he is campaigning as he is in a dry country district. there is not a drop of moisture in any of his speeches” (beers 1980, 74). establishing the monopoly was a remarkable accomplishment given that the state had voted to repeal prohibition by better than a 3:1 margin. lawmakers from rural areas overrepresented in the general assembly gave pinchot the necessary support, making pennsylvania the largest and “wettest” state to adopt a liquor monopoly (schell 2006). 66 three strikes and you’re out? public policy making to understand why the state liquor monopoly has proved so resistant to change, i consider several models of the policy-making process. agenda building is central to making policy. downs (2005) depicts an “issueattention cycle” where triggering events spark public interest in an issue, thereby creating conditions for non-incremental policy making. nonetheless, opportunities for policy change become limited as public interest declines and the issue is displaced by other issues. cobb and elder (2005) focus on triggering events but note that authoritative decision makers can place items on the agenda. using a more sophisticated model that incorporates both external events and the actions of policy makers, kingdon (2003) argues that policies change when three streams—problems, solutions, and politics—come together at critical times. as he notes, “a problem is recognized, a solution is available, the political climate makes the time right for change, and the constraints do not prohibit action” (kingdon 2003, 88). “policy windows open infrequently,” he adds, “and they do not stay open long” (kingdon 2003, 166). for james q. wilson (2012, 344–49), the policy-making process is shaped by the structure of an issue. he considers public policies in terms of a four-cell typology that reflects whether the perceived costs and benefits are widely or narrowly distributed. this typology also explains why some policies are harder to change than others. for example, the state monopoly on the sale of wine and spirits features aspects of what wilson (2012, 344) calls “client” politics or “policy under which some small group receives the benefits and the public at large endures the costs.” wilson (2012, 346) suggests that client policies are difficult to change because the costs are small and “payers have very little incentive to organize.” patashnik (2008, 16) builds on wilson’s typology by asking what happens after enactment of “general interest reforms.” to enact reforms, policy advocates must overcome entrenched opposition by placing reforms on the agenda, neutralizing opponents, mobilizing supporters, and building winning coalitions. patashnik (2008, 20) contends that adoption of general interest reforms also requires advocates to link reforms to salient issues. often it is necessary as well to employ strategies that shift the venue for policy making to new arenas where self-interested economic groups lose their customary advantages. finally, tactics such as compensation, sidepayments, and transition measures are needed to neutralize the opposition of beneficiaries or clients of the policy. to make reforms last, says patashnik (2008, 19), it is essential to accomplish a “recasting of interests, institutions, and ideas.” he notes too that “reforms may persist for reasons other than those which prompted the reforms’ original adoption” (patashnik 2008, 161). when specific groups receive economic benefits from a policy, client 67 george hale groups can grow up around a particular policy and shield it from change. aside from generic models of policy making, studies of policies regulating the sale of alcoholic beverages reveal a persistent role for “morality” politics. since the 1930s, fundamentalist protestant groups have helped shape policy regarding the selling of wine and spirits. schell (2006) attributes the pennsylvania monopoly system to the “politics of provincialism.” meier and johnson (1990) find that “dry” religious groups opposing alcohol consumption have a significant impact on the regulation of alcoholic beverage sales in many states. frendries and tatalovich (2010, 315) identify a “strong linkage between evangelical protestant population and the decisions of u. s. counties to elect to be ‘dry’ counties, demonstrating the persistence of religion as a vital factor in some public policy debates, especially those falling into the realm of morality politics.” similarly, pennsylvania allows municipalities to remain “dry” and to ban the sale of malt beverages and distilled liquor. the dry municipalities are heavily concentrated in the state’s rural central and northern regions. according to zelinsky (1995, 148–49), the “pattern of partial and complete prohibition seems to be related, to a significant degree, to ethnic and religious factors and to even more fundamental social attitudes, which do vary considerably among various pennsylvania localities.” significant regional differences within pennsylvania are reflected in partisan identification, political ideology, and views about moral issues. pennsylvania is a highly diverse state with two major urban centers and a vast rural area—the republican-dominated “t”—in its central and northern regions (kennedy 1999, 8–11). lamis (2009, 230) uses five regions of the state to analyze public opinion. republican identification and conservatism is strongest in the central and northern tier (see table 1 below). regional differences also exist on political and cultural issues. in a 2004 survey, 25% of central and northern tier respondents identified moral issues as their top concern. this region also is the one most likely to have “dry” municipalities. furthermore, an august 2012 poll found support for “selling the state-owned liquor stores to private companies as a way for the state of pennsylvania to balance its budget” to be weakest in the northern and central regions of the state (madonna 2012). 68 three strikes and you’re out? table 1 party and political philosophy in pennsylvania, by region. region party identification: republican political philosophy: liberal top 2004 issue: moral values philadelphia 14% 35% 7% philadelphia suburbs 45% 23% 11% northeast 37% 27% 15% pittsburgh & west 34% 20% 19% central & northern tier 54% 16% 25% source: lamis (2009, 232–33, 237) policies involving the sale of alcoholic beverages thus involve aspects of morality politics as an overlay to what might otherwise be a straightforward contest over the role of government and private enterprise or a struggle among competing private interests. schell (2006, 313) argues that religious and social conservatism not only explain the formation of the state monopoly but also are among the factors—along with union power and concern over the state’s revenues—that insulate the policy from change. efforts to reform public policy in pennsylvania governor richard thornburgh several pennsylvania governors have entertained notions of abolishing the state-store system. in 1934, democrat george earle complained that prices in state stores were too high. in 1968, republican raymond shafer’s liquor code advisory committee reviewed problems with the state liquor system. the committee considered privatization but ultimately backed retention of the monopoly (schell 2006, 302–4). in the 1970s, governor milton shapp unsuccessfully proposed privatization of the state-store system (beers 1980, 369). republican richard “dick” thornburgh’s 1978 platform included privatization of state liquor stores, but his campaign focused instead on “corruption and mismanagement in state government” and the need to “clean up harrisburg” (thornburgh 2003, 74). thornburgh initially addressed improving plcb management by trying to secure confirmation of his nominees as commissioners, a move that required a two-thirds vote in the state senate. according to thornburgh’s former chief of staff, richard stafford, when democrats blocked the governor’s efforts 69 george hale to name a majority of the plcb commissioners, thornburgh “turned into a champion of privatization” (stafford, personal communication). a democrat also observed that if thornburgh could not gain political control of the board, “he would join forces with those advocating abolition of the liquor control system in pennsylvania” (carocci 2005, 191). two years into his term, thornburgh proposed dismantling the retail store system. he acknowledged: “i had stated its transformation to a private, consumer-oriented system as a goal in our 1978 campaign, but our efforts were largely rhetorical until, early in my second term, i then presented a detailed plan to accomplish that goal” (thornburgh 2003,167). according to stafford, the governor’s staff viewed the issue as a “hard sell”; for the governor, privatization was a matter of reform. “established following the repeal of prohibition,” he wrote, “the much-derided state store system had become a monument to inefficiency, inhospitality and occasional corruption” (thornburgh 2003, 167). in 1983, a report by touche ross & co. (1983) to the state auditor general identified needed improvements in plcb operations and predicted falling operating profits resulting from inefficient pricing, merchandising, inventory, and distribution practices. according to thornburgh (2003, 167), “poor service was driving many customers out of state for their purchases, causing a loss of revenue, while expenses continued to rise. i hoped declining profits, if nothing else, would sound the death knell for this dinosaur.” recognizing that the issue was a “hard sell,” thornburgh’s advisors developed a “back-up plan” (stafford, personal communication). while working on legislation for the sunset review of state agencies, which required the periodic reauthorization or termination of agencies, gubernatorial aides saw to it that the plcb was scheduled for sunset review. stafford noted that this effort would have given thornburgh “an opportunity to block reauthorization in one legislative chamber or to sustain a veto of reauthorizing legislation” (stafford, personal communication). from 1981 to 1986, thornburgh had no success pushing privatization. the state’s house of representatives refused to vote on his plan. the republicancontrolled state senate also took no action. s.b. 597, introduced in 1981 by republican senator stewart greenleaf, provided for a private-license system, but it remained bottled-up in committee. at thornburgh’s request, greenleaf sponsored s.b. 92 for a statewide referendum in 1983. greenleaf also introduced s.b. 407 to abolish the plcb. both measures failed to reach the floor, as did s.b. 87, a bill introduced in 1984 by senator richard tilghman to abolish the plcb, and s.b. 1157, which had 17 co-sponsors. thornburgh (2003, 167) concluded that his plan “was stymied by a strong, if somewhat odd, coalition of organized labor, especially the powerful statestore employees’ union; bible belt ‘drys,’ opposed to liquor in general and fearful of more convenience to consumers; and organizations like madd.” 70 three strikes and you’re out? democrats were solidly arrayed against thornburgh’s plan. vincent carocci (2005, 213), an aide to the next governor, noted that “it was largely a jobs issue for them; the lcb’s three-thousand-plus employees enjoyed some sort of job protection either through unionized collective bargaining or by civil service status.” he continued, “a considerable number of republicans also were opposed, though for entirely different reasons, having largely to do with unfettered access to the purchase and consumption of booze.” as his tenure neared its end, thornburgh grew more passionate about the issue. during a goodwill mission to the democratic republic of the congo, thornburgh bought a bottle of wine at a privately owned store. “that was the last nail in the coffin, the straw that broke the camel’s back,” he said. “that marxist-leninist state has privatized liquor sales,” he exclaimed, “but pennsylvania, this bastion of free enterprise, has a state-run socialist monopoly” (gruson 1986). in 1986, the back-up plan took center stage and for a time it looked as though it might work. the plcb was to be terminated unless reauthorized by the general assembly. this maneuver transferred the advantage to thornburgh, who needed only one chamber’s support to block reauthorization. after the house voted 158–40 to extend the plcb for ten years, republican leaders in the state senate kept the reauthorization off the agenda. in a 27–22 party-line vote held after midnight on the last legislative day of 1986, democrats failed to get the extension issue onto the agenda. in december 1986, thornburgh issued an executive order to terminate the plcb, to auction off 705 state stores, and to create the alcoholic beverage control coordinating council to phase-out the agency by july 1, 1987. the governor also transferred the plcb’s licensing role to the revenue department, and he moved enforcement to the state police. thornburgh (2003, 168) recalled, “with undisguised glee, i affixed huge symbolic ‘for sale’ signs to retail outlets. predictability, our opponents sought redress in the courts.” thornburgh’s directive was challenged by a variety of parties. the commonwealth court overturned the executive order, but it also ruled that without legislative action by june 30, 1987, the plcb would expire (munshi 1997). nonetheless, thornburgh’s leverage was limited because his privatization-supporting lieutenant governor, william scranton iii, lost the 1986 race for governor to democrat bob casey. thornburgh’s efforts to dismantle the state’s liquor monopoly played out during the new governor’s first months in office. casey had pledged to continue liquor control, conditioned upon passage of reforms to make the agency more responsive to consumers. a casey legislative aide, vincent carocci, worked to gain passage of reforms and reauthorization. h.b. 1000 contained reforms 71 george hale sought by casey: placing enforcement powers with the state police, creating administrative law judges, and permitting consumer-oriented reforms such as discounts, variable hours, and credit card payment for purchases. an amendment submitted in the state house of representatives to privatize wholesale and retail sale of wine failed by a vote of 163–34, but h.b. 1000 passed the house on april 29, 1987, by almost the same margin with support from all democrats and a majority of republicans. on june 17, 1987, the state senate defeated by a vote of 39–10 senator greenleaf’s amendment to allow the sale of liquor and wine in private retail stores. only one democrat supported the amendment, as did barely a third of the chamber’s 26 republicans (see table 2 below). a majority of republicans from the philadelphia and pittsburgh suburbs backed greenleaf’s amendment, but only a single republican among the 13 from the rural “republican t” did so. on june 29, 1987, h.b. 1000 passed the state senate on an identical 39–10 vote. table 2 vote on greenleaf amendment to h.b. 1000 allowing privatization, by party and region (june 17, 1987). region senate democrats senate republicans yes no yes no philadelphia 0 6 0 1 philadelphia suburbs 0 2 6 1 northeast 0 5 0 2 pittsburgh & west 1 6 2 2 central & northern tier 0 2 1 12 total 1 21 9 18 on the same day, the state house of representatives approved h.b. 1000 as amended 155–45. democrats supported the bill 99–2, and republicans supported it 56–43. only republicans from suburban philadelphia opposed plcb reauthorization. in the central and northern regions, just 16 of 43 republican lawmakers voted against reauthorization (see table 3 below). these votes illustrate why governor thornburgh failed. republicans were divided on the issue, with majority support coming only from those members representing pittsburgh and suburban philadelphia. 72 three strikes and you’re out? table 3 final legislative vote on h.b. 1000 reestablishing the liquor control board, by party and region (june 17, 1987). region house democrats house republicans yes no yes no philadelphia 21 0 5 0 philadelphia suburbs 4 0 10 20 northeast 17 1 9 2 pittsburgh & west 42 1 5 5 central & northern tier 15 0 27 16 total 99 2 56 43 the 1992 vote during governor casey’s tenure, privatization got to a floor vote in the state house of representatives one more time. in february 1992 a republican amendment to a liquor-licensing bill proposed selling the 681 state stores to the highest bidder subject to several restrictions designed to mollify opponents concerned about any expansion of liquor sales. no licensee could hold more than 10% of the statewide licenses or more than 20% of the licenses in an individual county. the number of stores would not increase. licenses also could not be transferred between counties. proponents claimed the auction of stores and inventory would yield over $600 million to fund school district property-tax relief. the amendment failed 47–149 (see table 4 below); only a pair of the chamber’s 111 democrats supported it. republicans narrowly favored the amendment 45–40. again republicans representing suburban philadelphia backed privatization 18–9. elsewhere fewer than half the republicans supported privatization. 73 george hale table 4 vote on amendment no. ao 417 to h.b. 495 to auction off 681 state stores (february 5, 1992). region house democrats house republicans yes no yes no philadelphia 0 24 1 3 philadelphia suburbs 1 3 18 9 northeast 0 17 4 8 pittsburgh & west 1 42 6 4 central & northern tier 0 23 16 16 total 2 109 45 40 governor tom ridge in his 1994 campaign, republican governor tom ridge, a former member of congress from erie, supported privatizing the liquor monopoly, claiming the state did not need to provide the service. like thornburgh, however, ridge waited two years before presenting a plan. according to john jones, ridge’s point man on the issue as plcb chair and now a federal district judge, ridge got to the issue “ahead of schedule in 1996 when he was grappling with how to provide state funding for new sports stadiums in philadelphia and pittsburgh” (jones, personal communication). after hiring price waterhouse to study the issue, ridge’s team developed a privatization proposal. according to jones, ridge was “all in” on the issue: “the numbers made sense, and it was not a core function of state government” (jones, personal communication). in early 1997, ridge proposed to sell the state stores and use the estimated $650 million in proceeds to fund the construction of stadiums and other projects. neither ridge nor jones appreciated “how tough it would be” (jones, personal communication). once more unions, especially the united food and commercial workers and its labor allies, religious groups such as the pennsylvania council of churches, and madd dominated the debate. other unions, such as the united electrical, radio and machine workers of america, joined the fight to support plcb employees (schell 2006, 307–8). as thornburgh had done, ridge proposed to privatize only the retail stores. after being criticized for his intended use of auction proceeds, ridge broadened his proposal to include funding for education, 74 three strikes and you’re out? health, infrastructure, alcohol-law enforcement and awareness programs, scholarships, and tax credits for employers hiring state-store employees (george 1997, 65). a poll conducted by mansfield university found 60% of voters in favor of selling state stores (george 1997, 52). notwithstanding its support among the public, the proposal remained in the state senate’s law and justice committee during the 1997–98 legislative session. ridge could not muster support for his proposal before the summer recess. democratic legislators then held hearings around the state highlighting opposition from state-store employees, religious organizations, and groups such as madd. after receiving multiple death threats, jones was given a security detail. he later recalled the long hearings on the subject: “it was brutal. i had the stuffing kicked out of me. it was blood sport” (couloumbis 2010). in short, he said, “i felt like george custer at the battle of the little bighorn” (jones, personal communication). while ridge’s proposal sparked pitched opposition from employee unions and their allies among democrats, republican lawmakers looked for ways to duck the issue, as plcb employees fanned out to tell lawmakers about the jobs to be lost in their districts. plcb’s chairman jones fielded calls throughout the summer of 1997 from republicans who “didn’t want to have to vote on ridge’s plan” (jones, personal communication). “the jobs issue was the key one,” recalled jones. “nobody wanted to vote to put thousands of people out of work. as a result, lawmakers never got to making decisions based on the numbers” (jones, personal communication). one legislator noted, “governor ridge did everything in his power” to privatize state stores but got little support from committee members (couloumbis 2010). “this is a very conservative state,” he said, “they didn’t even want to hear about it” (couloumbis 2010). ridge’s plan also lacked support from business. as jones remarked, “the proponents were few and the objectors were many” (twedt 2008). noting strong opposition from state-store employees and those favoring the tightest controls, jones reflected: “what that taught me from a political standpoint is that there is no overarching passion within the general assembly, or in the public at large, for privatization. unless and until there is a general hue and cry, it is very unlikely there will be a privatization initiative that succeeds” (twedt 2008). the leader of the state-store employees union, wendell young iv, agreed. “there isn’t this critical mass screaming for change,” he observed (couloumbis 2010). as jones concluded, “major initiatives do better when there are private entities pushing them. you need not just a governor, you also need lobbyists” (jones, personal communication). that fall, ridge abandoned the proposal when legislative leaders told him “this dog isn’t going to hunt” (jones, personal communication); and it did not resurface after his 1998 reelection. 75 george hale governor tom corbett the issue of what to do with the state’s monopoly over the sale of alcoholic beverages receded until the 2010 gubernatorial election. in 2002, democrat ed rendell defeated attorney general mike fisher, who had championed thornburgh’s liquor-control proposals as a state senator. under rendell, as under casey, steps were taken to make the plcb more businesslike and consumer friendly. a few discount state stores were established in several locations near state borders, selected stores were allowed to open on sundays, and some stores were set up within grocery stores. in 2010, attorney general tom corbett supported privatization during his successful campaign for governor. corbett entered office as a more ideologically committed republican than either thornburgh or ridge. his support for liquor privatization fit into a broader framework of promoting free-market privatization solutions. he also proposed privatizing the state lottery and appointed a high-level task force to identify other privatization options. when republicans also won control of the general assembly, many observers expected privatization to become a top priority. the republicans’ edge over democrats in the state senate widened to 30–20, and they won a 111–90 majority in the state house. public opinion seemed favorable, as 60% of pennsylvanians supported the sale of state stores. many newspaper articles predicted action on the measure. during his first term, however, corbett wrestled with the impact of the great recession, a state budget that faced a potential $4 billion deficit, and his own no-tax pledge. with the governor preoccupied with the budget, house majority leader mike turzai took the lead on the liquor issue and introduced h.b. 11. the governor’s major contribution was in the form of agenda setting and commissioning pfm to study privatizing the wholesale and retail operations of the plcb. supporters of the state monopoly also prepared for battle. of the $216,550 contributed by the united food and commercial workers to state candidates in the 2010 elections, a lone republican received just $1,000; all the rest went to democrats. the plcb also proposed its own legislative package to undercut charges of being unresponsive to consumers. it sought permission to ship wine directly to residents, to remove restrictions on sunday sales, to extend sunday hours, to allow state stores to be retailers for the pennsylvania lottery, and to expand market-based pricing. during the spring of 2011, the house democrats’ policy committee held hearings attacking turzai’s proposal. nothing happened until after pfm issued its report in october 2011. pfm documented a negative 10-year trend where plcb revenues increased at a 3.5% compounded annual growth rate, while expenses climbed at 5.5% annually (public financial management 2011, 6). pfm found that most 76 three strikes and you’re out? plcb stores are unprofitable and operating costs, personnel costs, and fulltime staff levels are high when compared with other control states. pfm also determined that pennsylvania’s relatively low levels of consumption of wine and spirits partly resulted from high mark-ups and a tax structure that encouraged “cross-border” purchasing. in a finding seized upon by opponents, pfm also argued that tax adjustments were necessary to achieve fiscal neutrality so that commonwealth revenues would continue to match current tax revenues and plcb profits. pfm concluded that the number of retail licensees could be increased to approximately 1,500 (public financial management 2011, 9). it also estimated the range of cost for retail and wholesale licenses to be between $1.1 billion and $1.6 billion. two months later, the house liquor committee gutted turzai’s h.b. 11. on a 15–10 party-line vote, the republican majority torpedoed their majority leader’s proposal for full privatization by replacing it with an amendment allowing private beer distributors to sell wine. the amendment also retained the state stores. committee democrats opposed this provision as a partial privatization measure that would undermine the plcb’s revenue stream. moreover, even many beer distributors opposed it for fear that only the largest distributors could afford the enhanced license. in june 2012, floor debate over privatization took place for the first time since 1992. turzai offered a proposal to replace the more than 600 state stores with 1,600 private outlets while also giving approximately 1,000 beer distributors a chance to buy retail wine and liquor licenses. after three hours, debate was suspended at 10:00 p.m. on june 11 with over 300 amendments still pending. republican leaders had failed to corral the necessary votes. opposition came from the state-store workers and the state afl-ci0. despite turzai’s efforts to find allies by giving beer distributors a chance to buy retail licenses, the pennsylvania malt beverage distribution association opposed the measure. it complained that allowing “big box” stores to obtain multiple licenses would damage the competitive position of the “mom and pop” distributors holding single licenses. despite supportive statements from the governor, some republicans complained that his office was not sufficiently involved in securing votes for turzai’s measure. the very groups—beer distributors, big box stores, convenience stores, and grocery chains—that might benefit from privatization also feared the potential harm they would suffer if their competitors dominated the bidding for licenses. these rivalries complicated the process of building a coalition in support of privatization. republican john taylor, chair of the house liquor committee, compared putting together the votes for privatization to solving a rubik’s cube: “as soon as you twist one color, another color gets out of joint” (krebs 2012). when the general assembly adjourned its two-year session in 2012, turzai expressed optimism about the future chances for privatization but said 77 george hale that next time the proposal needed to come from the governor (couloumbis 2012). nonetheless, the prospects for change were not promising. the republican-controlled state senate was not enthusiastic about the issue, and the 2012 election reduced the republicans’ edge over democrats to 27–23. additionally, governor corbett also confessed weakness by noting in november the difficulty of getting republican support for his agenda. “getting them all on the same page, and working in the same direction, is probably the most difficult job i’ve ever had to do,” he lamented (levy 2012). in 2013, governor corbett was ready to push the issue in preparation for the 2014 election. representative turzai introduced h.b. 790, the governor’s proposal to auction off the state stores and use the expected $1 billion in proceeds to fund education. it did not take long for republicans on the house liquor committee to water down the proposal. they amended the bill to give beer distributors the first opportunity to purchase the new wineand-spirits licenses, and they protected the distributors from competition by insisting that grocery stores applying for a license to sell beer could do so only in a restaurant-style seating area within their stores. additionally, state stores would not be sold immediately; they would be phased out over time and possibly remain open permanently in the most rural areas of the state. word went out that corbett badly needed a legislative win. on march 21, 2013, following heavy lobbying by the governor’s office, republicans gave corbett a victory. the state house passed the weakened measure 105–90, with all democrats and only five republican lawmakers in opposition. when the bill moved to the state senate, things slowed down. unlike the larger chamber’s leadership, no senate leader championed privatization; several of them spoke instead of a desire to “modernize” the plcb. the law and justice committee waited more than a month before holding hearings, which were dominated by opponents concerned with increased liquor consumption and firms convinced that the bill placed them at a competitive disadvantage. opposition from the employee unions and beer distributors, worried that privatization might increase competition from supermarkets and convenience stores, made it likely than any legislative action would result in modest reforms compared with those advocated by governors thornburgh, ridge, and corbett. conclusion three times in thirty years pennsylvania governors failed to dismantle the state’s liquor monopoly and replace it with a free-market system. all three governors encountered unified opposition from democrats, and they were stymied by a divided republican party. the opposing coalition skillfully mobilized its members—the united food and commercial workers union, 78 three strikes and you’re out? the afl-cio, mothers against drunk driving, the pennsylvania council of churches, and beer distributors. representative dante santoni, formerly the ranking minority member of the house liquor committee, described the coalition as “strange bedfellows” not accustomed to working together. “while many members feared the loss of union jobs,” he noted, “other more conservative lawmakers worried about the negative impact of increased consumption” (santoni, personal communication). the formidable alliance of unions and social and religious groups encountered little opposition. from the perspective of kingdon’s model, it appears that favorable conditions did not exist in the problem, solution, and political streams. the governors unsuccessfully tried to mobilize support by linking privatization to other issues. thornburgh tried “reform” and “inefficiency.” ridge tried connecting it to financing for sports stadiums. corbett linked it to relief for the state’s fiscal problems. none of these issues caught fire. despite the success of thornburgh and ridge on a wide range of issues, they failed on this one. corbett is pushing harder on his second try, but it seems likely that in some form the plcb will continue to play a role in the sale of wine and spirits. one problem with kingdon’s model is that it does not explain why the timing may never be right on some issues. for example, all three governors encountered opposition within their party from the same areas of the state that supported prohibition eighty years earlier. sorauf (1963) and kennedy (1999) may offer an explanation. they examined the classic issue of “delegate” versus “trustee” by asking pennsylvania lawmakers whether their voting is guided more by their constituency’s views, by their own judgment, or by a combination of the two. both scholars found republican lawmakers to be more likely than democrats to cite constituency as their decisionmaking guide. writes kennedy (1999, 77): “in the tightly knit rural and small-town communities, perhaps a closer, more personal relationship develops between legislator and constituents. these areas tend to be represented by republicans.” rural republican legislators and those from metropolitan districts may simply be reflecting different constituencies, and constituency may trump party on this issue. wilson’s typology of public policies provides a partial explanation of the outcomes. his model focuses exclusively on the distribution of economic costs and benefits without accounting for the intensity or persistence of public opinion based on noneconomic considerations. nonetheless, wilson’s description of client politics as resistant to change is convincing: “client politics seems like an irresistible force, but sometimes it gets changed” (wilson 2012, 146). client politics rarely changes unless the public decides the beneficiaries are illegitimate or the costs of the policy become too high. so far the debate has taken place in the arena of client politics. the beneficiaries of the current policy—the state store workers, beer distributors, and their allies—are well organized. the groups that 79 george hale might benefit from privatization have largely been on the sidelines. as jones noted, “governors alone can’t do the job” (jones, personal communication). it is unlikely that policy will change unless the issue is transformed from “client” politics to “interest group” politics with the potential winners from privatization actively contesting the issue. patashnik (2008) argues that reformers often need to change the venue or the rules for making decisions so that the economic beneficiaries of current policy no longer have the advantage. thornburgh recognized this idea by proposing a referendum and by maneuvering so that the sunset legislation might allow him to prevail. patashnik (2008) also suggests that side payments may promote reform by providing benefits to others to buy their support. while governor thornburgh did not undertake this strategy, ridge’s and corbett’s proposals for using the proceeds from the sale of the state stores did not enlist any allies. finally, none of the governors expanded the pro-reform coalition beyond a few general-purpose business organizations. it is not likely that different tactics would have overcome the combined force of “morality” politics and “client” politics. recent experience in other states shows the difficulty of the legislative route to policy change. governor bob mcdonnell of virginia twice failed in recent years to win lawmakers’ approval for privatization. by contrast, 60% of voters in washington approved a ballot measure, backed by costco and other “big box” retailers, to privatize the wholesale distribution of liquor and wine as well as the retail sale of liquor. if corbett’s second attempt at reform fails, it is unlikely to become a top priority for some time. furthermore, incremental reforms will only reduce the pressure for major changes. wilson suggests that client politics rarely change unless the beneficiary becomes illegitimate or the costs of the policy become too high. absent a major scandal or a long-term deterioration in the profitability of the state-store system, the prospects for change appear limited as long as morality and client politics dominate the debate. unless the potential beneficiaries of privatization coalesce, or unless legislators link privatization to an issue popular with rural republicans, governors acting alone face long odds. references beers, paul b. 1980. pennsylvania politics today and yesterday. university park, pa.: the pennsylvania state university press. carocci, vincent p. 2005. a capitol journey: reflections on the press, politics and the making of public policy in pennsylvania. university park, pa: the pennsylvania state university press. cobb, roger d., and charles d. elder. 2005. “the dynamics of agenda building.” in classics of public policy, ed. j. m. shafritz, k. s. layne, and c. p. borick. new york, ny: pearson longman. 80 three strikes and you’re out? couloumbis, angela. 2010. “lcb’s epic run might be near end.” philadelphia inquirer. december 19. couloumbis, angela. 2012. “many favor lcb privatization.” philadelphia inquirer. november 1. downs, anthony. 2005. “up and down with ecology.” in classics of public policy, ed. j. m. shafritz, k. s. layne, and c. p. borick. new york, ny: pearson longman. frendreis, john, and raymond tatalovich. 2010. “a hundred miles of dry: religion and the persistence of prohibition in the u.s. states.” state politics and policy quarterly 10 (3 november): 302–19. george, mary selene. 1997. “privatization of pennsylvania liquor stores.” master’s thesis. east stroudsburg university. gruson, lindsey. 1986. “liquor sales divide pennsylvanians.” new york times. december 21. gusfeld, joseph r. 1963. symbolic crusade: status politics and the american temperance movement. urbana, il: university of illinois press. kennedy, john j. 1999. the contemporary pennsylvania legislature. lanham, md: university press of america. kingdon, john w. 2003. agendas, alternatives, and public policies. new york, ny: longman. krebs, jeanette. 2012. “pennsylvanians keep their spirits up despite another liquor privatization stall.” harrisburg patriot news. june 23. lamis, renee m. 2009. the realignment of pennsylvania politics since 1960: two-party competition in a battleground state. university park, pa: the pennsylvania state university press. levy, marc. 2012. “corbett: persuading gop is ‘difficult.’” philadelphia inquirer. november 27. madonna, g. terry. 2012. “franklin and marshall college poll survey of pennsylvanians: summary of findings.” lancaster, pa: floyd institute for public policy. meier, kenneth j. 1994. the politics of sin: drugs, alcohol, and public policy. armonk, ny: m. e. sharpe. meier, kenneth j., and cathy m. johnson. 1990. “the politics of demon rum: regulating alcohol and its deleterious consequences.” american politics quarterly 18 (4, october): 404–29. munshi, mihir a. 1997. “share the wine—liquor control in pennsylvania: a time for reform.” university of pittsburgh law review 58 (winter): 507–47. patashnik, eric m. 2008. reforms at risk: what happens after major policy changes are enacted. princeton, nj: princeton university press. public financial management. 2011. “commonwealth of pennsylvania, office of the budget, liquor privatization analysis.” philadelphia,pa. ross, touche. 1983. “pennsylvania liquor control board: limited operations review.” harrisburg: touche ross & co. schell, david a. 2006. “keeping control: gifford pinchot and the establishment of the pennsylvania liquor control board.” ph.d. diss. temple university. seim, katja, and joel waldfogel. 2013. “public monopoly and economic efficiency: evidence from the pennsylvania liquor control board’s entry decisions.” american economic review 103 (2): 831–62. sorauf, frank. 1963. party and representation. new york, ny: atherton press. thornburgh, dick. 2003. where the evidence leads: an autobiogrpahy. pittsburgh, pa: university of pittsburgh press. twedt, steve. 2008. “pa.’s liquor control system let’s state keep a tight grip on the bottle.” pittsburgh post-gazette. january 27. wilson, james q. 2012. american government: brief version. 10th ed. boston, ma: wadsworth. zelinsky, wilbur. 1995. “cultural geography.” in a geography of pennsylvania, ed. e. w. miller. university park, pa: the pennsylvania state university press. solving pennsylvania's budget woes commonwealth, volume 21, issue 1 (2021). © 2021 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/com.v21i1.289. all rights reserved. solving pennsylvania’s budget woes increased female representation benjamin melusky old dominion university pennsylvania has a long history of failing to pass its budget by the start of the next fiscal year, often plunging the state in prolonged periods of budget impasse, and subjecting the state to a myriad of social, economic, and political consequences. this article explores the history of budget impasses in the commonwealth, including their causes and consequences, and advances a growing trend in american politics as a potential solution to this problem—the election of more women to the general assembly. i suggest that the addition of more female lawmakers will make the budgetary process more collegial as these political actors are prone to reach across the aisle and compromise due to patterns of socially reinforced behavioral expectations, thus bringing budgetary stalemates to a quicker resolution. the consequences of prolonged impasses on the target populations of importance to female lawmakers are explored as an impetus for engaging in this behavior. pennsylvania has become infamous for its almost perennial inability to pass its budget on time. the ensuing budget impasses have been as brief as only a day (2006) or as long as 270 days (2015), causing the state to incur a multitude of highly visible and often costly consequences and contributing to decreased public confidence in its elected officials and increased willingness to vote out the culpable incumbents. thus, as pennsylvania inches closer to its june 30 deadline each year, the collective eyes of the commonwealth, solving pennsylvania’s budget woes 75 surrounding states, and more recently the nation, turn toward harrisburg, wondering whether july 1 will come and go without a new budget in place. in this climate of increased partisan division and polarization, many are asking what can be done to solve the state’s budget woes—and according to some politicians and pundits that solution is to elect more women. this article examines how gender influences efforts to compromise in an increasingly partisan and polarized environment. budgets are built on compromise, without which there are tangible consequences for elected officials and their constituents. gender differences in both style and behavior (vinkenburg et al. 2011) characterize women with possessing a willingness to engage in consensus building and compromise (volden, wiseman, and wittmer 2013). pennsylvania has historically underrepresented women in the branches concerned with state budgetary negotiations. thus, electing more women into the state government could result in more consensual behavior with an emphasis on collegiality and cooperation (fox and oxley 2003). though compromise is a necessary condition for successful budgeting, pennsylvania’s negotiations are defined by a number of elements known to complicate this process, including possessing a full-time legislature, a sizeable budget, a history of partisan division, and increasing levels of polarization. thus, in understanding the role women can play in ameliorating the consequences of divided government and polarization, pennsylvania provides an important case study. this research examines the role of women in the budgetary process and operates under the premise that behavioral differences, in combination with institutional features, lead to different patterns of lawmaking between men and women. in doing so, it considers the potential outcomes associated with reducing the underrepresentation of women in political office. in the current polarized political climate, most issues would benefit from greater femaledriven cooperation (bratton and rouse 2011). this research focuses on passing a state’s budget because no government action can occur without it. budgetary negotiations are thus an optimal case for both observing occurrences of, and considering if, gendered collaborative behavior can reduce pennsylvania’s propensity for budget impasses. late budgets history harold lasswell defined politics as a competition over who gets what, when, and how. developing and enacting a public budget is a prime example of politics because it’s a deliberative process which sets the size and agenda of a 76 benjamin melusky government by determining overall spending and where revenue is directed (hutchinson and james 1988). budgeting is highly conflictual with every political actor holding a stake in the outcome. demand will always exceed supply, leading to the budget process being viewed as unsatisfactory and ultimately flawed in its outcomes (national conference of state legislatures 1995). difficult budgetary negotiations can result in a state failing to pass its budget by the start of the next fiscal year, entering the state into an impasse period. in the event of an impasse, a state employs one or more options. in 11 states temporary appropriations bills are passed. another 12 states have provisions that allow for the continuous payment of funds and services to maintain government operations, and 22 states mandate a partial government shutdown of nonessential government services (national conference of state legislatures 2010). late state budgets are not uncommon, with more than 15% of budgets from 1961 to 2006 being adopted after the start of the next fiscal year (klarner, phillips, and muckler 2012). pennsylvania itself has a long history of failing to pass its budget by its july 1 fiscal year deadline (see figure 1). figure 1. pennsylvania budget adoption historical (1961–2018). note: positive values denote a budget that was signed after the july 1 statutory deadline (a late budget), and negative values denote a budget that was signed before the july 1 statutory deadlines (an on-time budget). (source: 1961–2006 adapted from klarner, phillips, and muckler [2012]: 2008–2018 updated from https://www.legis.state.pa.us/cfdocs/legis/cl/public/cl_view.cfm.) solving pennsylvania’s budget woes 77 between 1961 and 2018, 25 of pennsylvania’s 58 budgets (43.1%) were late, being passed an average 44.4 days after the start of the fiscal year, with the longest impasse (270 days) occurring in 2015. notable impasses have resulted from attempts to increase taxes to meet spending increases or reduce deficits. until recently, pennsylvania employed a mixture of the aforementioned procedures in the event of an impasse, passing continuing resolutions and enacting a partial shutdown of nonessential functions. in 2007 a new interpretation of the fair labor standards act (flsa) advanced by the rendell administration prohibited noncritical employees from performing their duties because the commonwealth had no authority to pay them during a budget impasse (needles 2009). budget disputes led to the furloughing of 25,000 noncritical employees, prompting an unsuccessful lawsuit for summary relief filed by the state’s major labor unions. when budget disputes arose again in 2009, the rendell administration interpreted the prior commonwealth court decision such that while it could no longer furlough state employees, it could, however, order them to work without pay during an impasse. as the resulting 101-day impasse stretched on, noncritical employees found the words “budget impasse leave without pay” printed on their paychecks. the act of these “payless paydays” prompted an appeal to the state supreme court. on december 28, 2009, chief justice castille wrote for the 6–1 majority that the flsa’s requirement of timely pay for work performed during a budget impasse overrode pennsylvania’s constitutional provision barring dispersal of funds from the treasury until they were authorized in a budget (fitzsimmons 2009). this fundamentally changed how the commonwealth would operate during a budget impasse. the decision ensured that state workers would no longer face payless paydays, no matter the duration of the budget impasse. as a result, most functions the public relies on will continue as agencies must tap into reserves to pay employees until a new budget restores the state funding (meyer 2015). with nonessential workers no longer being furloughed, and the most tangible indicators of an impasse no longer in play, only if an impasse languishes on will the general public start to feel an impact from the breakdown in budgetary negotiations. while these procedural changes have altered the way that the commonwealth responds to a budget impasse, they have not changed its propensity for engaging in fiscal brinksmanship for the duration of these impasses (should they occur), as evidenced by the recent 2015 impasses. as such, it is necessary to understand why pennsylvania and other states fail to pass their budgets on time, and how they might avert future impasses. 78 benjamin melusky literature on budget impasses in the american states has shown that a variety of institutional, economic, and political factors influence the duration of budget impasses. budget resolution is made more difficult by: the fiscal health of the state magnifying divergence over spending priorities (klarner, phillips, and muckler 2012), the complexity of a state’s budget (klarner, phillips, and muckler 2012), supermajority requirements for appropriations bill adoption (pulsipher 2004), legislative professionalism allowing for protracted budgetary negotiations (kousser and phillips 2009), and whether there was an attempt to increase taxes (mclaughlin 2012). two additional factors are of particular importance for understanding budget impasses in pennsylvania. the first concerns pennsylvania’s history of divided government. budgetary disputes are exacerbated during times of divided government when the most fundamental interests of the governor and the legislature now run counter as each branch/party seeks to pursue a budget in line with its ideological and policy goals (bowling and ferguson 2001). figure 2 below allows for an examination of the partisan composition of pennsylvania’s government overtime as viewed through the lens of the occurrence of budgetary failures. an important temporal effect is observed in the above table, where prior to 1972, it was not uncommon to observe a late budget during periods of unified government. during this period, disagreements between partisan allies were often punished in subsequent elections resulting in the loss of majority control in the lower chamber. after 1972, the point when the general assembly figure 2. historical partisan control of pennsylvania’s government (1961–2018). note: shaded cells indicate years that a budget was passed after the start of the fiscal year, i.e., “late.” (source: 1961–2011, adapted from klarner [2013]: 2012–2018 updated via council of state government’s book of the states.) solving pennsylvania’s budget woes 79 began to modernize (mclaughlin 2012), every budget impasse (except 2014) has occurred under divided government. this is consistent with prior studies of impasses in the era of legislative professionalism which show that divided government presents a significant hurdle in the state’s ability to pass its budget on time (andersen, lassen, and nielsen 2012; kirkland and phillips 2018). second, the trend in ideological polarization is making the budget (and policy) process more difficult. parties at both the national and state levels have become more ideologically homogenous (wright and birkhead 2014) and ultimately more polarized (mccarty, poole, and rosenthal 2016). increasing polarization truly is becoming “undeniably the central and most problematic feature of contemporary american politics” (mann and ornstein 2016, 44), as it increases gridlock (barber and mccarty 2013). when considering budgeting, the rise of more ideologically disciplined parties reduces the ability of legislators to act as free agents and makes distributive bargaining more difficult (binder and lee 2015). since voters do not have a negative view of more polarized legislatures (richardson and milyo 2016) and fail to sanction legislators for ideologically extremity (rogers 2017), polarization may intensify partisan division. thus, during periods of partisan division when the parties are more ideologically disparate, compromise becomes more difficult as positions within the ideological gap are less tenable. figures 3 and 4 allow for an figure 3. pennsylvania general assembly ideological polarization (1996–2016): chamber medians. (source: adapted from shor and mccarty [2011].) 80 benjamin melusky examination of the increase of ideological polarization by both chamber and party, again as viewed through the lens of the occurrence of late budgets.1 clearly, polarization has increased over time, with the greatest degree of polarization occurring in the lower chamber, particularly within the republican party. the degree of polarization makes compromise more difficult, in particular when attempting to bring an impasse to an end (birkhead 2016). taken together, pennsylvania is in a difficult position each year resulting from a myriad of institutional, economic, and political factors. given the commonwealth’s propensity for budgetary gridlock, what is a possible solution for its budget woes? the solution: elect more women in american politics, “compromise is difficult, but governing a democracy without compromise is impossible” (gutmann and thompson 2012, 1). the american public views compromise as a normatively desirable feature of the policymaking process (gutmann and thompson 2012). a budget is a manifestation of politics that inherently leaves the political actors unsatisfied with the outcome. because particularistic demand exceeds the supply of state fiscal figure 4. pennsylvania general assembly ideological polarization (1996–2016): party medians. (source: adapted from shor and mccarty [2011].) solving pennsylvania’s budget woes 81 resources, the passage of a state’s budget requires compromise by these political actors. given this necessary condition, who better to serve than women who are viewed by society as natural compromisers (fox and oxley 2003)? gender stereotypes result from the understanding that differences between men and women result from patterns of socialization and normative gender structures rather than biological imperatives (diekman, eagly, and kulesa 2002). men and women behave differently in social situations and take on different roles due to the expectations that society places upon them (eagly 1987), with society establishing the judgment that men should occupy the public sphere of politics and be the breadwinners, while women should occupy the private sphere of the home and be the caregivers. as such, when women cross from the private into the public sphere, beliefs about gender differences tend to accompany them, stereotypically characterizing them as being more compassionate, collegial, and compromising (prentice and carranza 2002). female politicians internalize these expectations and are socially rewarded for having these stereotypical traits (eagly and karau 2002). surveys of female political officeholders show they believe they possess these interpersonal skills, making them more understanding and better at compromising than men (johnson and carroll 1978). they highlight their domestically honed diplomatic skills based on “mutual respect, consensus decision-making, validation of the feelings of others, and noncompetitive power” (flammang 1985, 111). these expectations further shape the policy issues they are concerned with, with women more frequently addressing traditional “women’s issues” (holman 2014). ultimately, because of gendered socialization patterns, these shared traits and interests yield a group of lawmakers who are more inclined to collaborate with each other and with others in their institutions. a wide range of behavioral gender differences thus emerges (eagly and karau 2002). female politicians report spending more time working to build relationships within their party and across party lines and engaging in more activities that involve communication and compromise (carey, niemi, and powell 1998). women adopt a more hands-on approach which emphasizes collegiality and cooperation (jewell and whicker 1994). further, female politicians possess distinctive management or leadership styles with an insistence on mutual respect, consensus decision making, validation of the feelings of others, and noncompetitive power (flammang 1985). because of this, the inclusion of female politicians can change the agenda, process, and outcomes of the political institutions in which they are a part (cammisa and reingold 2004). there is some reason to question the extent to which women can and actually do engage in this behavior. collaboration and compromise can be 82 benjamin melusky costly (kanthak and krause 2011). as the number of women holding office increases, these members may be less successful in achieving their goals (carroll 2001), often facing increased resistance from their male colleagues (kathlene 1994) and even backlash (yoder 1991). additionally, the influence and power of institutional masculine norms is thought to be more or less severe depending on the proportion of men and women in that body (reingold 2003). in congress, lawless, theriault, and guthrie (2018) find the expectation of collaboration and compromise was mainly based on anecdotal evidence. yet reingold (2003) finds that women who have made it into political office have broken formidable barriers and thus are capable of resisting and overcoming at least some constraints. while there is widespread agreement that women have been excluded from the “inner circles of power” (mezey 1980, 184–185), there is less consensus on the degree to which such obstacles constrain their behavior (gertzog 1984). as noted above, external pressures compel and reward women for living gendered stereotypes and behavioral expectations (bauer, harbridge, and krupnikov 2017). simply put, women who are expected to be more compromising than their male colleagues can face more punitive costs when they do not meet those expectations. thus, to compensate for a lack of other means of accessing power, women work with each other to overcome structural and political barriers (wojcik and mullenax 2017). as such, there is potential to observe the benefits of the tendency of women to reach across the aisle and collaborate. journalists, pundits, politicians, and scholars have called for a greater presence of female lawmakers to reduce gridlock and counteract the rise in ideological polarization (jackman 2013). motivation to compromise resulting from budget impasses beyond merely necessitating compromise, failure to pass a budget by the fiscal year deadline has real consequences. it can result in the state incurring a variety of monetary costs. legislatures that must extend the regular session or call special sessions to complete the budget process face increased operational costs (pulsipher 2004). additionally, during an impasse a state is unable to authorize payments into the next fiscal year and is subject to late fees and other penalties from vendors under state contract (niquette 2009). further, consistently failing to pass a budget in a timely manner can affect a state’s credit rating, decreasing bond ratings and increasing interest rates paid by states (pulsipher 2004). the state government does not solely incur the costs of a late budget. without appropriation details, local governments, school districts, and nonprofit organizations are unable to budget, plan, or deal effectively with their solving pennsylvania’s budget woes 83 contractual obligations (pulsipher 2004). in 2009 and 2015, numerous pennsylvania nonprofit groups like domestic violence shelters were compelled to furlough, reduce hours, eliminate benefits, and lay off portions of their labor force. county child protection service agencies were unable to place at-risk children in protective care without state funds (wetzel 2009). when a state fails to pass its budget on time, people dependent on local social welfare programs, businesses that have contracts with the state, residents expecting a state income-tax refund, and college students expecting state grants are all left waiting until a new budget is enacted (sweeney 2009). additionally, school districts, which need a budget in place to receive funding, have made employees work without pay, considered moving to a four-day schedule, took out short-term loans, or threatened to shut their doors completely (pennsylvania manufacturers association 2015). beyond the significant monetary costs to the states, it is these wider social costs that should drive female lawmakers to engage in consensus-oriented behavior during budgetary negotiations and avoid lengthy impasse periods. as the duration of a budget impasses increases, these populations of both descriptive and policy importance to female lawmakers are disproportionately harmed (responsible budget coalition 2016). these constituent groups have become political bargaining chips in contemporary budget negotiations, as programs on which these groups rely are regularly impacted. this point was articulated by governor wolf who stated “i don’t want to hold the children of pennsylvania hostage because of the inability of people in harrisburg to get the job done” (lindstrom and gilliland 2015), and that failure to swiftly pass a balanced budget results in “consequences that will be forced upon the commonwealth [which] will be unfortunate and could include impacts to programs on which our constituents rely” (navratil 2017). evidence of compromise there is precedent to expect that electing women will make the budgetary process more collegial and could reduce the duration of an impasse should one occur. during the 2013 federal government shutdown, a bipartisan group of female u.s. senators held a weekend meeting beyond the eyes and influence of their party leadership and discussed ways to reopen the government (weisman and steinhauer 2013). their male colleagues credited these discussions with shaping the compromise ending the budget impasse (bassett 2013). interviews with female members of congress ultimately reveal that they see collaboration and collegiality as their greatest strengths (dittmar, sanbonmatsu, and carroll 2018). 84 benjamin melusky similarly, in 2018 louisiana was headed toward a $650 million shortfall at the end of the fiscal year and was at the end of its second special session attempting to address this problem. it was only because of the failed effort of representative julie stokes (r), who was stopped at the microphone by a male colleague from calling for a compromise vote earlier in june, and the eventual success of representative paula davis’s (r) compromise bill, that the budget stalemate was broken (poche and sanders 2018). in a legislature composed of only 15% women, the efforts of these women and their other female colleagues were instrumental in reaching a compromise. specifically concerning pennsylvania, a report by the pennsylvania center for women and politics (2017) revealed that during the 2015 budget impasse, many women in the legislature on both sides of the aisle gathered for coffee and discussed efforts to end the impasse. this report details that in interviews with many female lawmakers, they espoused that the female lawmakers were more cooperative, especially during increasingly divided times (pennsylvania center for women and politics 2017; sweet-cushman 2020). the substance of these interviews is consistent with gender socialization patterns, indicating that these lawmakers possess the stereotypical shared traits and interests that make them more inclined to collaborate. considering these shared traits, many of the women felt that they were more cooperative because women worked differently. senator judy schwank (d) and representative margo davidson (d) noted that women legislate differently, seeking out likeminded legislators with whom to collaborate. similar to the domestically honed diplomatic skills noted by flammang (1985), representative tina picket (r) felt that a woman’s ability to multitask was comparable to how they juggle various household demands. despite not having a formal women’s caucus, representative davidson noted that they have an informal pact to support each other’s policy efforts. together, in today’s partisan environment, many female lawmakers expressed the necessity of cooperation. further, women share common interests, with representative donna oberlander (r) noting that they naturally collaborate with one another because they share common ground. women in the legislature focus on addressing traditional “women’s issues” which affect key demographics such as women, children, and families. representative mauree gingrich (r) noted that women needed to tackle these issues because if they didn’t, no one else would. representative davidson felt that solidarity among women, regardless of party, was important because it facilitated greater progress on these key issues. ultimately, representative mary jo daley (d) expressed that compromising was crucial because it allowed for dialogue on these issues (pennsylvania center for women and politics 2017; sweet-cushman 2020). solving pennsylvania’s budget woes 85 taken together, this anecdotal and qualitative evidence is illustrative of the premise that women possess both the means and motivation to engage in collaborative efforts. yet, given current representation levels, electoral and partisan demands, and institutional norms, observing collaboration in the passage of a timely budget might not yet be realized. the evidence cited earlier indicates that the optimal time to observe potential collaboration is once the fiscal year ends without a new budget in place and the state enters into a period of budget impasse (a late budget). this is especially true when impasses stretch on, acutely impacting many of the groups and issues traditionally designated as “woman oriented” (responsible budget coalition 2016). but evidence beyond anecdotal and qualitative accounts is necessary to determine if electing more women to the general assembly can solve pennsylvania’s budget woes by making the budgetary process more collegial. comparative empirical evidence can offer further support for this behavior during periods of budget impasse. i thus examine the duration of budget impasses in the american states from 1993 to 2006 taken from kousser and phillips (2012). within this period there were 71 late budgets and impasses lasted an average of 47.7 days in 18 states. the influence of gender on the length of an impasse manifests in both the presence of women within the legislature overall—% legislature female (–)—and within the political minority—% legislature minority female (–)—coded as the percentage of the state legislature/ minority party represented by women and taken from data collected by the center for american women and politics (cawp).2 beyond these key variables of interest, several additional factors were considered. while it is one thing for a woman to be elected, it is another thing to be a power player or critical actor (childs and krook 2009). as such, leadership positions within the legislative party structure—% party leadership female (–)—are coded as the percentage of the party leadership positions held by women and taken from data collected by the cawp. partisanship and polarization should make it more difficult to bring an impasse to conclusion. under divided government, stalemates occur because the two branches cannot agree on the distribution of particularistic and statewide spending (barrilleaux and berkman 2003). thus, divided government (+) is coded 1 when both branches of the state government are divided along partisan lines, 0 otherwise (klarner 2013). similarly, the ideological polarization (+) of the legislature will make resolution more difficult. taken from birkhead (2016), this measure is operationalized from the shor-mccarty common space scores (shor and mccarty 2011) as a single-dimension indicator, with higher values indicating more polarized parties. additionally, increases in legislative professionalization (squire 2007) afford members a greater degree of patience in 86 benjamin melusky protracted budget deliberations (kousser and phillips 2009). taken from the book of the states, the number of days in session (+) a state legislature meets provides an accurate reflection of their level of patience in a budget impasse period (kousser and phillips 2009). finally, several fiscal and institutional features may impact budget resolution during an impasse. a highly complex budget can make the process more difficult (klarner, phillips, and muckler 2012). the state’s total real general expenditures (+) in a given year, and whether the state operates under a biennial budget (+), coded 1 if the state budgets biennially and 0 otherwise, both increase the complexity of the budget. data for both variables were taken from the book of the states. similarly, the fiscal health of the state can influence the passage of a state’s budget (klarner, phillips, and muckler 2012). the state’s budget surplus (–), measured as the difference between total expenditures and revenues with negative values indicating a budget deficit and lagged one period (t–1) and taken from klarner, phillips, and muckler (2012), and the state’s unemployment rate (–), taken from the bureau of economic analysis’s local area unemployment statistics, seasonally adjusted, were included. whether the state requires a partial government shutdown (–) in the absence of a budget is included, coded 1 if the state’s law mandates a government shutdown and 0 otherwise and was taken from andersen, lassen, and nielsen (2012). i fit a cox proportional hazards model to consider the factors that influence the duration of a budget impasse, with failure specified as when a state adopts its budget for the next fiscal year bringing the budget impasse to an end. the results from this analysis are displayed in table 1. hazard ratios are reported allowing for ease of interpretation: values greater than 1 imply the hazard rate is increasing such that the presence of the indicator increases the probability that the budget impasse will come to an end, while values less than 1 imply the opposite. briefly turning to the ancillary covariates of interest, various significant factors explain the duration of a budget impasse consistent with the prior literature (polarization, days in session, and surplus), whereas other covariates revealed effects consistent with expectations though failing to reach accepted levels of significance (divided government, real general expenditures, unemployment, and biennial). the only significant result inconsistent with expectations was that having a greater presence of women in the party leadership (% party leadership female) increased the length of a budget impasse, increasing the hazard rate by 2.4%. but this finding is not entirely surprising given that gender roles persist in historically male-dominated institutions where women who seek leadership positions must sacrifice much of who they are to overcome many of solving pennsylvania’s budget woes 87 the obstacles faced by their predecessors (campbell and jerry 1988; marshall and mayhead 2000). turning to the role that gender can play during a budget stalemate, consistent with expectations, the presence of women in the legislature has a significant impact of shortening a budget impasse, should one occur. in the legislature overall (% legislature female), each additional percent of the legislature represented by women increases the likelihood of an impasse coming to an end by 7.6%. substantively, a 1 standard deviation increase in the percentage of women in the legislature is associated with a 32.6% decrease in the duration of a budget impasse.3 further, when a larger number of women are in the political minority (% legislature minority female), a similar effect is observed, with an increase in their presence increasing the risk of an impasse ending by 8.3%, and substantively experiencing a 28.3% decrease in the duration of a budget impasse. taken together, irrespective of where women exist in the legislature (overall or in the political minority), once a budget impasse does occur, an increased female presence benefits the state in reducing the length of the duration. considered with the above evidence that women in the pennsylvania general assembly possess the means and motivation to work collaboratively, an increased presence of women has the potential to positively influence this inherently conflictual process. pennsylvania thus sits at a crossroads in table 1. factors affecting duration of budget impasses, 1993–2006 % legislature female 1.076* (0.042) % legislature minority female 1.083** (0.041) % party leadership female 0.976* (0.013) divided government 0.733 (0.279) polarization 0.858† (0.082) days in session 0.991*** (0.003) real general expenditures 0.977 (0.048) unemployment 0.975 (0.116) surplus 1.036*** (0.013) shutdown 0.457 (0.236) biennial 0.322*** (0.133) n 71 notes: estimates for cox proportional hazards survival analysis. failure = when a state adopts its budget for the next fiscal year bringing the budget impasse to an end. coefficients are hazard ratios, followed by standard errors in parentheses. * p ≤ .10; ** p ≤ .05; *** p ≤ .01; †significant at the 0.10 level (one-tailed test) 88 benjamin melusky its history, faced with a great opportunity to limit its perennial budgeting problems. problems and possibilities the problem women have been significantly underrepresented at every level of government throughout pennsylvania’s history. to date, pennsylvania has never had a female governor, and even though the number of women in the general assembly has quintupled since 1975, in 2018 pennsylvania was ranked 39th in the country for the overall proportion of legislative seats held by women (center for american women and politics 2018). the slow movement of women into political office has been taken as prima facie evidence that voters are biased against female candidates. however, recent literature on sex-based discrimination offers an optimistic outlook such that voters do not appear to factor a candidate’s sex into their decisionmaking calculus, with women winning at comparable rates to men (brooks 2013). the pattern of women remaining vastly underrepresented in elected office is attributed more to women being more averse to seeking office, either because they do not consider themselves qualified (kanthak and woon 2015) or because few people encourage them to run (lawless and fox 2010). even if a gender bias exists, increased representation over time has normalized the image of women as viable candidates in the mind of the electorate. 2018 saw a record number of women expressing interest in and running for elected office, spurring hopes that 2018 could become a new “year of the woman.” more women ran for state governor than in the last seven years combined, and record numbers of women ran for their state’s legislature. in pennsylvania, 126 women ran as major-party candidates for state legislative office (88 democrats and 38 republicans) and laura ellsworth ran for the republican nomination to challenge incumbent governor tom wolf. given the historic number of women running across all levels of government, numerous polls showed a shift in attitudes toward support for having women in elected office, though with some mixed findings in attitudes toward the benefits of women on the government (igielnik and horowitz 2018). possibilities and challenges as a result of the 2018 midterm elections, the number of women in the pennsylvania legislature has improved, with 12 women in the state senate (up from seven) and 51 in the state house (up from 42). while these numbers are an solving pennsylvania’s budget woes 89 improvement, pennsylvania only increased its rank from 39th in the country to 34th (center for american women and politics 2019). despite becoming more diverse, it remains substantially unrepresentative of the female population (24.9% compared to 51%). but at what level of representation would the benefits of gender on the budgetary process be realized? much of the prior research focuses on the concept of critical mass: as the number of women grows from a few token members to a certain threshold it can shape the process and policies of that political body. this theory assumes a linear relationship between the number of women and the desired political outcomes. various thresholds have been proposed to operationalize this relationship, commonly categorized as skewed groups (up to 15%), titled groups (15–35%) (kanter 1977), and the widely used critical cut-point of 30% (dahlerup 1988). others argue that as the number of women in an organization increases, the women will be less successful in achieving their policy goals (carroll 2001), often facing resistance from their male colleagues (kathlene 1994). as such, women might be more effective in the political minority (osborn 2014), as they would be in a position in which they must reach across party lines to advance their goals (volden, wiseman, and wittmer 2013). pennsylvania is in a unique position to evaluate the impact of increased women’s representation. increased representation inches the legislature closer to the 30% cut-point, allowing for evaluation of critical mass theories. further, the recent increases have occurred in the democratic political minority, a position necessitating compromise, allowing for evaluation of theories of minority representation. despite increases in women’s representation, it may take time for pennsylvania to realize these benefits. critics argue that studies of substantive representation perhaps should focus not on what women do but rather on what specific actors do (childs and krook 2009). critical actor theory suggests that it takes time for women to gain seniority and assume positions of power in the party leadership and chamber committees. since 1945, only 10 women in the house and 1 in the senate have ever held leadership positions (pennsylvania center for women and politics 2019), and no woman has ever held a top leadership post (e.g., president pro tempore/speaker). similarly, while the number of women holding committee chairs has increased overtime, of the 94 possible positions, women have only recently held 11 (8 senate/3 house) (center for american women and politics 2017), and no woman has ever led the appropriations committee in either chamber (pennsylvania general assembly 2019). this underrepresentation highlights the fact that women entering into the legislature face an institutional culture that upholds masculinity as the 90 benjamin melusky norm (thomas 1994). but this is not unique to pennsylvania, as the political world has traditionally been “a man’s business” (githens and prestage 1977, 339), given that there has never been majority female legislative body in the united states. nevada recently made history by becoming the first state in which women hold a majority of the seats in the state legislature. though still early in the new legislative session, members acknowledge that the institution is already experiencing a culture change, advancing a significant number of bills dealing with traditional women’s issues, which state senator spearman (d) noted in prior legislative sessions “the boys club was like, ‘why do we need that,’” yet are now receiving significant attention and support. ultimately, “there’s change in this building that is just this amazing story of transformation . . . and it really highlights the importance of the female majority being not just here, but finally being heard,” said senator swank (d) (waxthibodeaux 2019). with significant gains being made by women in legislatures across the country, and with women holding more than 40 percent of seats in nevada, colorado, oregon, and washington, scholars’ ability to observe potential institutional change may be on the horizon. this change may not come fast enough for pennsylvania given that the independent fiscal office (ifo) projected that, because the 2015 budget impasse fought over tax increases was ended by meeting shortfalls with transfers from other state accounts totaling more than $1 billion, budget shortfalls are expected to reoccur every year until fiscal year 2023–2024 (esack 2018). fiscal year 2020 began with an expected $1.7 billion deficit whereas the ongoing impact and uncertainty caused by covid-19 resulted in fiscal year 2021 opening with a $3.2 billion shortfall. these deficits necessitate the commonwealth to take a long look at increasing income or sales taxes or reducing certain state services. additionally, the recent democratic electoral success saw the defeat of many moderate republicans from the philadelphia suburbs, making the ideological distribution of the republican majorities more conservative. taken together, pennsylvania is set up to experience additional budget fights for the foreseeable future. however, the future is bright for democratic women moving forward. while the republican party has consistently held an advantage in the number of women in the general assembly historically, the results of the 2018 elections have altered this trend. female candidates in pennsylvania can overcome the challenges in candidate recruitment (see brown, this volume) and emerge as quality contenders for both open-seat contests and against entrenched incumbents. pennsylvania is at a historic crossroads, and how it proceeds moving forward will have important implications for the growth and prosperity of the commonwealth. solving pennsylvania’s budget woes 91 notes 1. polarization is defined as the average ideological distance between the median democrat and republican in the state legislature and taken from shor and mccarty (2011). 2. the parenthesis following each covariate reflects the direction of the hypothesized relationship: a (+) indicates that it is expected that the variable increases the duration of the impasse whereas a (–) indicates a shorter impasse. 3. increasing the value of % legislature female by 1 standard deviation centered on the mean, calculated using the unexponentiated coefficient 0.072 or ln(1.075) and the expression: exp(0.072 × 18.87) – exp(0.072 × 24.65) / exp(0.072 × 24.65) × 100. this same formula was subsequently adjusted for % legislature minority female. references andersen, asger lau, david dreyer lassen, and lasse holbøll westh nielsen. 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gender stereotypes.” psychology of women quarterly 26 (december): 269–281. pulsipher, ian. 2004. “late budgets.” legisbrief 12. national conference of state legislatures. reingold, beth. 2003. representing women: sex, gender, and legislative behavior in arizona and california. chapel hill: university of north carolina press. solving pennsylvania’s budget woes 95 responsible budget coalition. 2016. “budget impasse creating barriers for women and mothers.” may. available at http://www.responsiblebudget.org/sites/default/files /content/pdfs/rbc%20women’s%20report%20may%202016%20update%20final .pdf. richardson, lilliard, and jeffrey milyo. 2016. “giving the people what they want? legislative polarization and public approval of state legislatures.” state and local government review 48 (december): 270–281. rogers, steven. 2017. “electoral accountability for state legislative roll calls and ideological representation.” american political science review 111 (august): 555–571. shor, boris, and nolan mccarty. 2011. “the ideological mapping of american legislatures.” american political science review 105 (august): 530–551. squire, peverill. 2007. “measuring state legislative professionalism: the squire index revisited.” state politics and policy quarterly 7 (june): 211–227. sweeney, james p. 2009. “fallout from budget impasse could soon hit hard and wide.” san diego union-tribune, january 11. sweet-cushman, jennie. 2020. “gendered legislative effectiveness in state legislatures: the case of pennsylvania” in politicking while female: the political life of women, ed. nichole bauer. louisiana state university press. thomas, sue. 1994. how women legislate. new york: oxford university press. vinkenburg, claartje j., marloes l. van engen, alice h. eagly, and mary c. johannesenschmidt. 2011. “an exploration of stereotypical beliefs about leadership styles: is transformational leadership a route to women’s promotion?” leadership quarterly 22 (february): 10–21. volden, craig, alan e. wiseman, and dana e. wittmer. 2013. “when are women more effective lawmakers than men?” american journal of political science 57 (april): 326–341. wax-thibodeaux, emily. 2019. “where women call the shots.” washington post, may 17. available at https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2019/05/17/nevadas -legislature-women-outnumber-men-first-nation-carson-city-may-never-be-same /?utm_term=.ed563136ae18. weisman, jonathan, and jennifer steinhauer. 2013. “senate women lead in effort to find accord.” new york times, october 14. available at http://www.nytimes .com/2013/10/15/us/senate-women-lead-in-effort-to-find-accord.html. wetzel, donald c. 2009. “children suffer the most under budget impasse.” patriot news, letters to the editor, september 29. wojcik, stefan, and shawnna mullenax. 2017. “men idle, women network: how networks help female legislators succeed.” legislative studies quarterly 42 (november): 579–610. wright, gerald c., and nathaniel birkhead. 2014. “the macro sort of the state electorates.” political research quarterly. 67 (june): 426–439. yoder, janice d. 1991. “rethinking tokenism: looking beyond numbers.” gender & society 5 (june): 178–192. benjamin melusky is an assistant professor of political science in the department of political science & geography at old dominion university. his publications include articles that have appeared in the journal of politics and ps: political science & politics and focuses on the subjects of gender, institutional rules, and legislative/executive interactions in the american states. structure bookmarks late budgets problems and possibilities notes references microsoft word volume 14.doc commonwealth: a journal of political science  volume 14, number 1  december 2008 special policy issue on public health  2008 ppsa/lorl, pa house of reps. issn 0890-2410 crisis in the making: what’s wrong with pennsylvania public health law john a. bozza, judge of the court of common pleas, sixth judicial district, commonwealth of pennsylvania acknowledgement the author would like to extend his gratitude to the hon. john m. cleland, president judge of mckean county and a national advocate for a broader understanding of the role of the judiciary in matters of public health, for his critical and most insightful review of this manuscript. there are few areas of government enterprise where the need to “get it right” is so critical as formulating and executing laws affecting the public health. when the government sets out to exercise its police power1 to control the spread of disease, its goal is to accomplish an immensely important practical task and its success is to a great degree objectively determinable; the spread of disease is either curtailed or not. however, the manner in which the government’s goal is reached reflects not only its pragmatic concerns but also a society’s political, social and legal values. recent attention to matters of public health in the area of infectious disease has brought to the fore both the nature and effectiveness of the federal government’s response to incidents of contagious disease both actual and anticipated. in 2003, severe acute respiratory syndrome (sars), a contagious viral disease, seemed to rapidly spread throughout a number of countries, including canada and to a lesser degree the united states (centers for disease control 2003; mason 2003; reich 2003). beginning in 2003 with reports of outbreaks in various parts of the world, much attention has been focused on what is generally referred to as “bird flu” and commonly identified as avian influenza. there are a number of variants of avian flu virus but the h5n1 virus has caused the most concern among public health officials with regard to transmission 24 crisis in the making: what’s wrong with pennsylvania public health law to humans (centers for disease control and prevention 2008; o’leary 2006; pennsylvania department of health 2008).2 it was widely suggested that should an outbreak of the bird flu materialize, it could lead to a worldwide epidemic or as it was described, a “pandemic,” and result in a great loss of human life (msnbc 2005; centers for disease control and prevention may 28, 2008). this concern led to considerable activity among public health officials throughout the world and was the subject of intense attention in the federal government’s public health community largely centered at the centers for disease control. gratefully, no worldwide outbreak, or for that matter, even a significant local outbreak, of bird flu in humans in the united states seems to have developed and anecdotally, there seems to have been a noticeable diminution of public attention to the pandemic issue (centers for disease control and prevention 2008). most recently the public’s attention has been brought to bear on the activity of an american whose wedding celebration was interrupted by an international incident precipitated by his contraction of tuberculosis. andrew speaker’s reported failure to adhere to a united states government request to refrain from international airline travel resulted in a great deal of attention to the potential risks associated with an individual’s reluctance to refrain from public interaction in circumstances where he or she has a serious, perhaps life-threatening communicable disease (schwartz 2007). while mr. speaker eventually complied with a federal government request for isolation and treatment, and it was ultimately determined that the government’s belief that he had the most drug resistant form of tuberculosis was wrong, the episode brought to the public light the difficulties that the government may encounter when trying to curb a perceived public health threat. while the public’s attention to both episodes has diminished and government’s concern for an imminent outbreak of a human bird flu pandemic has moved off the front page, each has served as a muchneeded impetus for the examination of the sufficiency of public health law and policy. from both a practical and legal perspective, public health is one of those areas of human endeavor that tends to receive attention only when things are going badly. indeed it is the absence of experience, and in particular recent experience, that makes preparation for a public health crisis so challenging and what, quite understandably, results in a largely untested legal framework replete with unanswered john a. bozza 25 questions and therefore the potential for considerable confusion (batlan 2007).3 this article is intended to highlight significant legal issues associated with the current state of public health law in pennsylvania that may have adverse practical consequences on the government’s ability to effectively respond to a public health crisis. while the need to update state public health laws has long been recognized (see generally, gostin, burris and lazzarini 1999), there has been almost no movement in that direction in pennsylvania. revisions to pennsylvania law are necessary to assure that the response to a perceived public health emergency is not impaired by legal uncertainty and that citizens are protected from arbitrary government action. perhaps it will be accomplished before the crisis begins. although pennsylvania’s public health law framework is the focus of discussion, it is likely that the issues that are addressed have some applicability in other state jurisdictions and the federal government. indeed there is an ongoing concern about the interrelationship between federal and state authority in the public health law arena, especially as it applies to the spread of communicable disease. although recent public health events have served as a reminder of the potential need for a coordinated national and ideally an international effort, to curb threats to the public health, the vital role of state and local governments in this area of the law and public policy has long been recognized (gostin, burris and lazzarini 1999; weeks 2007).4 and given the overlapping jurisdiction of state and federal governments in such important matters as ordering quarantines, the need for well-conceived state statutes will remain a compelling consideration for state legislatures (batlan 2007, 59; chen 2005).5 it must also be recognized that although there have been efforts to formulate model acts (gostin et al. 2002; turning point model state public health act 2003), these initiatives have not been without significant criticism and may well have some of the same limitations as are addressed below (chen 2005, 168-173).6 with that backdrop, it is this author’s objective to critically review pennsylvania’s public health law using a conceptual methodology that focuses on the practical consequences of flaws in legislative enactments and administrative regulations that may limit the effectiveness of the government’s response to a public health crisis or unduly complicate it. 26 crisis in the making: what’s wrong with pennsylvania public health law in that regard it is suggested that any review of public health law requires, at a minimum, consideration of three key questions: 1) which agencies or officials, collectively referred to as a public health authority (pha), are authorized or required to take action to prevent or control disease? 2) under what circumstances can a pha take action? 3) what steps may a pha take to respond to such a public health concern? while these inquiries serve as the framework for this analysis, they by no means constitute a comprehensive scrutiny of public health law. in particular, the issue of how a pha enforces its directives through the judicial process is not addressed and this is ultimately a matter of critical importance left for another day (daubert 2007; chen 2005, 165, 186190).7 the current state of pennsylvania public health law there are three primary sources of public health law in pennsylvania that deal with the control of communicable disease: 1) the disease prevention and control law of 1955 (dpcl; 35 p.s. §511 et seq.); 2) the counterterrorism, planning, preparedness and response act (“counterterrorism act;” 35 p.s. §2140 et seq.); and 3) pennsylvania health department regulations set forth in 28 pa. code §27.1 et seq. the dpcl includes a broad authorization for the state advisory health board (board) to issue rules and regulations concerning the prevention and control of both communicable and non-communicable diseases [35 pa. stat. ann. §521.16(a) 1-12]. very few have been promulgated and so there is much about the application of the dpcl that remains uncertain. and those rules that have been formulated are more on the order of broad mandates rather than narrow prescriptions for government action. moreover, the dpcl also allows certain municipalities to enact ordinances and regulations concerning the control and prevention of disease so long as they are not “less strict” than the provisions of the dpcl or rules and regulations [35 pa. stat. ann. 521.16(c)].8 this exercise in limited state preemption sets the stage for considerable conflict and disparity. finally, case law interpreting or applying the key provisions of both the statutes and health department regulations is entirely absent. generally in pennsylvania, local and state governments have been delegated the responsibility of controlling the spread of disease and have john a. bozza 27 been given broad discretionary authority to carry out their mandate. specifically, the dpcl provides as follows: responsibility for disease prevention and control. - (a) local boards and departments of health shall be primarily responsible for the prevention and control of communicable and noncommunicable disease, including disease control in public and private schools, in accordance with the regulations of the board and subject to the supervision and guidance of the department. (b) the department shall be responsible for the prevention and control of communicable and non-communicable disease in any municipality which is not served by a local board or department of health, including disease control in public and private schools (35 pa. stat. ann. §521.3).9 the counterterrorism act takes a markedly different approach from the dpcl. while its public health provisions are also intended to limit the transmission of a contagious or potentially contagious disease, it largely relies on the authority of the governor rather than local officials to take action (35 pa. stat. ann. §2140.301). in addition, it is based on the model state emergency health powers act (msehpa) and its focus is multifaceted with limited attention devoted to contagious disease or epidemic. furthermore, because government action is limited to circumstances involving a bioterrorist or biohazardous event, and neither term is defined, there is considerably less certainty in the 35 pa. stat. ann. as to both the conditions that may give rise to government action and the character of the government’s response. the health department regulations add little to the clarification of the issues noted above with regard to the locus of responsibility for the public health decisions required by either the dpcl or the counterterrorism act. who can take action? government attempts to prevent the spread of communicable disease may very well necessitate action that significantly interferes with individual liberty and must always be based on sound judgment predicated on a high degree of scientific acumen. in turn, the 28 crisis in the making: what’s wrong with pennsylvania public health law government’s action has to be sufficiently accepted by the public to assure meaningful compliance and thus limit the scope of a public health threat. in such circumstances, clearly identifying the agencies or officials that are empowered to act to protect the public health is of critical importance. at a time of heightened public concern, not knowing who precisely is authorized to make potentially life-altering decisions, such as directing isolation or quarantine, or mandating diagnosis and treatment, could result in delayed or faulty action, potentially contradictory positions on the nature of the danger posed, or what must be done to respond to it, and a reluctance on the part of the community to follow directives or to accept the government’s position. in this regard, pennsylvania law presents significant issues. the dpcl in general, the dpcl specifies that certain local governmental entities have the responsibility to act “for the prevention and control of communicable and non-communicable disease” (35 pa. stat. ann. §521.3). these pha’s are identified as “local boards and the departments of health” (35 pa. stat. ann. §521.3). they are in turn defined as “(t)he board of health or the department of health of a city, borough, incorporated town or township of the first class, or a county department of health, or joint county department of health” (35 pa. stat. ann. §521.2). in circumstances where a municipality is not served by one of these entities, the state department of health (the “department”) is responsible for this mission (35 pa. stat. ann. §521.3b). there is, however, an important caveat to the exercise of public health responsibilities by a local pha. the dpcl requires that a local pha is “subject to the supervision and guidance” of the state department of health suggesting that it is the state department of health that is the true decision-maker [35 pa. stat. ann. §521.3(b)]. this begs the question as to whether the department can either compel a local authority to act or forbid it from doing so or alternately simply shape the character of a local pha’s response to a public health issue. this role ambiguity has the potential for leading to divergent positions or strategies and diminishing the public’s confidence in decision-makers. in addition, the dpcl provides that in certain instances, designated individuals are authorized to take action. specifically the dpcl refers to “local health officer,” “a local qualified medical health officer,” “the john a. bozza 29 local medical health officer,” and the secretary of health as persons who can carry out activities set forth in the act. for example, §521.7 directs that “a local qualified medical health officer” require an infected person “to undergo a medical examination and any other approved diagnostic procedure” (35 pa. stat. ann. §521.7). this person also has the authority to cause an individual who refuses examination or diagnosis to be quarantined (35 pa. stat. ann. §521.7). however, it is left entirely to speculation as to who qualifies as “a local qualified medical health officer.” there is similar uncertainty regarding the identity of “the local medical health officer” who is authorized to isolate an infected person who refuses treatment (35 pa. stat. ann. §521.11).10 a “local health officer” is defined as the head of a local department of health (35 pa. stat. ann. §521.2). no definition of the other designations is provided (35 pa. stat. ann. §521.2). although not defined, the reference to the secretary of health is apparent. the counterterrorism act under the counterterrorism act this issue is far less complicated. in circumstances involving a public health emergency, the governor is designated as the primary decision-maker and is authorized to temporarily isolate or quarantine an individual or group under specified circumstances [35 pa. stat. ann. §2140.301(a)]. moreover, the “department or local health department” is authorized to petition the court for continuing isolation or quarantine [35 pa. stat. ann. §2140.301(b)]. both terms are defined. the “department” is defined as the commonwealth department of health, and “local health department” as a county department of health under the local health administration act or certain municipal health departments (35 pa. stat. ann. §2140.102). health department regulations under the regulations promulgated pursuant to the dpcl, action to protect the public health may be taken by either the department of health or by a “local health authority” which in turn is defined as “a county or municipal department of health, or board of health of a municipality that does not have a department of health. the term includes a “sanitary board” (28 admin. code, §27.1). in that respect the regulations are similar to the provisions of the dpcl. it is noteworthy, however, that the regulations require that if a local health authority 30 crisis in the making: what’s wrong with pennsylvania public health law (lha) is not a local morbidity reporting office (lmro), the lha must consult with the department before acting in certain instances.11 this provides some clarification about the circumstances when the department must become directly involved in decision-making under the dpcl although there is no indication as to whether the duty to consult also requires a lha to follow the department’s advice. under what circumstances may a pha act? the government’s ability to take steps to protect the public health must be triggered by an event or circumstance implicating the prospect of a health risk. both the dpcl and the counterterrorism act set forth criteria by which a public health authority (pha) or the governor must determine the need for action. unfortunately, both statutes suffer from a lack of precision in this area and a tendency, particularly with the dpcl, to afford a pha broad discretion in defining the circumstances under which action must be taken. the dpcl under the dpcl, a pha may be required to take action when it receives “a report of a disease which is subject to isolation, quarantine, or any other control measure” (35 pa. stat. ann. §521.5). although the act does not specify which diseases are subject to “control measures” a fair reading of the statute leads to the conclusion it must be a “... a venereal disease, tuberculosis or any other communicable disease” (35 pa. stat. ann. §521.2).12 communicable disease is broadly defined as: an illness due to an infectious agent or its toxic products which is transmitted, directly or indirectly, to a well person from an infected person, animal or arthropod, or through the agency of an intermediate host, vector of the inanimate environment [35 pa. stat. ann. §521.2(c)]. venereal disease is not defined.13 there is no further delineation of the characteristics of an “illness” that allow or require action. specifically there is no requirement that the illness be serious or life threatening or rise to some level of contagion except that with regard to the isolation of an “infected” person, the disease must be in a “communicable stage” [35 pa. stat. ann. §521.11(a)].14 (for the john a. bozza 31 purposes of this discussion, communicable disease includes tuberculosis but not venereal diseases. both the dpcl and the regulations have a number of separate provisions applicable only to sexually transmitted diseases.) the threshold issue is whether a pha is compelled to act in a particular manner or whether its actions are discretionary and therefore more subject to disparity and perhaps, arbitrariness. in this regard, the dpcl has divergent and perhaps conflicting provisions. directive language is utilized with regard to a pha’s general responsibility under the act. section 521.5 provides: upon the receipt by a local board or department of health or by the department … a report of a disease which is subject to isolation, quarantine, or any other control measure, the local board, department of health or the department shall carry out the appropriate control measures in such a manner and in such a place as is provided by rule or regulation. while the need to act as prescribed by rule is unequivocal, there is obviously room for the exercise of discretion in selecting a control measure.15 this flexibility may be intended to accommodate the demographic and resource diversity of counties and municipalities. further indication of the directive orientation of the dpcl is found in §521.7, relating to examination and diagnosis, which provides that whenever a pha has “reasonable grounds to suspect any person being infected … or being a carrier…,” the pha shall require the person “to undergo a medical examination or other approved diagnostic procedure.” in this circumstance it is apparent that a pha has no choice but to test persons it reasonably suspects as having a communicable disease. the discretionary nature of a pha’s responsibility is exemplified by §521.11(a.1), which provides that a pha “may cause” a person who is infected with a communicable disease including a venereal disease to be isolated in an appropriate institution. while directed to take “control measures” under §521.5, the applicable pha is not obligated to select any one in particular and is not required to either isolate or quarantine a person infected with a disease in a communicable stage. moreover, if it chooses to isolate an individual, the pha has the discretion to select an “appropriate institution” [35 pa. stat. ann. §521.11(a.1)]. 32 crisis in the making: what’s wrong with pennsylvania public health law finally, it is not clear under the dpcl whether a pha is required to compel treatment for one diagnosed with a communicable disease. there is no provision in the act that specifically sets forth such a requirement. however, if it does require treatment, the character of the treatment is within its discretion as the act only refers to “treatment approved by the department or by a local board or department of health” (35 pa. stat. ann. §521.2). additionally, as will be discussed below and as would be expected, there is no discrete time limitation on how long a person may be subject to isolation by a pha as the dpcl provides that isolation may last until a disease is rendered non-communicable (35 pa. stat. ann. §521.2). the counterterrorism act as noted above, it is the governor who is the prime actor under the 35 pa. stat. ann. and who is authorized to act only in a case of “an actual or suspected outbreak of a contagious disease or epidemic due to an actual or suspected bioterrorist or biohazardous event” [35 pa. stat. ann. §2140.301(a)]. the governor’s actions are broadly discretionary, as the act does not define any of these terms while providing that he or she “may” isolate or quarantine an individual or group [35 pa. stat. ann. §2140.301(a)]. the failure to define the terms “biohazardous” and “bioterrorist” opens the door to a considerable range of scenarios that could give rise to action by the governor. on the other hand, the statute limits the governor’s ability to act to circumstances where waiting for a pha to pursue authorization for quarantine or isolation through judicial proceedings currently available, would jeopardize the department’s ability to prevent or limit the transmission of a contagious or potentially contagious disease [35 pa. stat. ann. §2140.301(a)]. perhaps most notable, the governor’s written order for isolation or quarantine can only last until a court reviews the matter and determines whether such an order shall continue. the government must file a petition for court review within 24 hours or the next business day following the governor’s order and a hearing must be conducted within 72 hours of the filing of the petition. the court is authorized to extend the governor’s order up to 30 days. john a. bozza 33 health department regulations under the regulations, a pha is authorized to engage in control measures when a person has a communicable disease or infection and it is “… necessary to protect the public from the spread of infectious agents” [28 pa. admin. code §27.60(a)]. the definition of communicable disease is different from that provided in the dpcl: an illness which is capable of being spread to a susceptible host through the direct or indirect transmission of an infectious agent or its toxic product by an infected person, animal or arthropod, or through the inanimate environment (28 pa. admin. code §27.1). here the illness has to be one that “is capable of being spread to a susceptible host” while under the dpcl the language is arguably more limiting, requiring that the illness from an infectious agent be “transmitted, directly or indirectly, to a well person from an infected person…” [35 pa. stat. ann. §521.2(c)]. while it is not clear what the term “susceptible host” encompasses, ostensibly it would include more than humans and thus the range of diseases subject to control measures under the regulations would likely extend to illnesses that are either confined to animals or transmitted from humans to animals. this interpretation is reinforced by §27.60 that provides that a pha shall direct the isolation of “a person or an animal” with a communicable disease or infection (28 pa. admin. code, §27.60(a); emphasis added). the rules also potentially broaden a pha’s authority to act by requiring the government to take control measures when a person or animal has a communicable “infection,” as opposed to a communicable disease. the legal distinction between disease and infection is not evident and needs to be clarified. while it is possible to speculate that “infection” relates to a situation where one is carrying an “infectious agent” without overt symptomology, it is by no means apparent that this is the distinction intended by the board. it is important to recognize that under the rules, a pha is required to take specified actions when necessary to protect the public from the spread of both communicable diseases or infections. the discretionary nature of a pha’s authority under the regulations focuses on a determination of what is needed to protect the public and then directing isolation, surveillance, segregation, quarantine or modified quarantine or any other control measure it deems appropriate [28 pa. admin. code §27.60(a)]. 34 crisis in the making: what’s wrong with pennsylvania public health law what may a pha do to respond to a public health concern? ultimately what really matters in a public health crisis or potential crisis is the government’s ability to require individuals or entities to do things that reduce the likelihood of the spread of disease. when a potential public health problem emerges, the government’s response is obviously intended to have a practical benefit. therefore the measure of effectiveness of a public health statute resides in its ability to provide a pha with the tools necessary to respond to an outbreak of a communicable disease while at the same time limiting the likelihood of arbitrary actions. in that regard, pennsylvania public health statutes have significant limitations. in general there is broad authority vested in public health officials, particularly with regard to isolation and quarantine directives. there is no requirement in either the dpcl or the counterterrorism law that the government adopts the control measure least restrictive of individual liberty, to effectuate public health objectives. the dpcl in general the dpcl provides that a pha may use “appropriate control measures in such a manner and in such a place as provided by rule or regulation” (35 pa. stat. ann. §521.5). although the term “control measures” is not defined, §521.5 makes reference to taking steps to respond to “a disease which is subject to isolation, quarantine, or any other control measure” (35 pa. stat. ann. §521.5). implicitly, isolation and quarantine are authorized control measures. moreover, a subsequent section of the dpcl provides that a pha must require a person to submit to a medical examination (35 pa. stat. ann. §521.7). it is also apparent that a pha has the authority to at least request an infected person undergo treatment (35 pa. stat. ann. §521.11).16 no other control strategies are described or even referred to in the act. while the dpcl does provide some limited guidance, the manner in which and place where control measures may be carried out are issues explicitly left to rule making (35 pa. stat. ann. §521.5). unfortunately, the regulations promulgated by the state advisory health board do not materially clarify either of these questions and, with the exception of authorizing “placarding,” do not expand the list of acceptable control measures. john a. bozza 35 1. isolation. under the dpcl, isolation is defined as: the separation for the period of communicability of infected persons or animals from other persons or animals in such places and under such conditions as will prevent the direct or indirect transmission of the infectious agent from infected persons or animals to other persons or animals who are susceptible or who may spread the disease to others. [35 pa. stat. ann. §521.2(e)] it is directly authorized in only one instance where a person is infected with a communicable disease in a communicable state and refuses to submit to treatment. in that circumstance, either the secretary of the department or the local health officer “may cause the person to be isolated in an appropriate institution” (35 pa. stat. ann. §521.11). in no other instance is isolation, as defined in the dpcl, explicitly authorized. it is apparent the pha has broad discretion with regard to isolation in two respects. first, it is entirely up the pha to determine what is an appropriate institution and second, the pha must determine when the infected person has been rendered non-communicable. in circumstances where the disease in question is a venereal disease, the dpcl specifically provides that the person may be “received” by a county jail [35 pa. stat. ann. §521.11(b)]. otherwise there is no designation as to an appropriate place, nor are there criteria for determining what may be an appropriate location. further, there is no time limitation. there is also no provision for the isolation of someone who is infected but who has agreed to treatment. in this circumstance, a pha may be able to proceed under the quarantine provision as described below or under the “any other control measure” provision of §521.5. 2. quarantine. the dpcl provides that the secretary of the department of health or the local “qualified medical health officer” may require that a person who refuses to be examined be placed in quarantine. quarantine is defined under the act as: the limitation of freedom of movement of persons or animals who have been exposed to a communicable disease for a period of time equal to the longest usual incubation period of the disease in such manner as to prevent effective contact with those not so exposed. quarantine may be complete, or, as defined below, it may 36 crisis in the making: what’s wrong with pennsylvania public health law be modified, or it may consist merely of surveillance or segregation.17 [35 pa. stat. ann. §521.2(i)] the period of the quarantine may last until it is determined that the person is not infected or a carrier of the disease. there is no other time limitation. a person who refuses to be examined may be “committed by the court to an institution determined by the secretary of health to be suitable for the care of such cases” (35 pa. stat. ann. §521.7). this suggests that a pha is without authority to require institutional commitment on its own. there are no specific guidelines for the use of quarantine, nor does the dpcl list the type of quarantine measures that may be taken. however, given the very broad definition of the term in the act, it is apparent that the range of possibilities is considerable. the notion that a quarantine may be carried out “in such a manner as to prevent effective contact with those not so exposed” [35 pa. stat. ann. §521.2(i)] suggests that the only criteria for selecting the form of the measure is its effectiveness in preventing contact. contrary to the implication of the right of the pha to seek a court ordered commitment discussed above, this would seem to connote isolation as an option. importantly, the dpcl does not require that a pha or the court limit its selection to the alternative that is the least restrictive of the individual’s liberty. 3. involuntary examination. the dpcl provides that a pha may require a person who it reasonably suspects is infected or a carrier of a communicable disease “to undergo a medical examination and any other approved diagnostic procedure” (35 pa. stat. ann. §521.7). if the person refuses, then a pha, limited to either the secretary of the department or the “local qualified medical officer,” may cause the person to be quarantined (35 pa. stat. ann. §521.7). the quarantine may last until it is determined that the person is not infected or a carrier. alternatively, either person may petition the court of common pleas seeking an order to compel the examination. unlike the pha who compels quarantine, the court must find that the person refused to be examined for no valid reason before ordering an examination or subsequently committing the person to an institution “determined by the secretary of health to be suitable for the care of such cases.”18 4. involuntary treatment. there is no provision of the dpcl that authorizes a pha to require treatment. however, there is certainly an john a. bozza 37 implication in §521.11 that a pha may request it. it is not clear just how far it may go in ultimately coercing it. the stated remedy provided in §521.11 for refusing treatment is isolation “in an appropriate institution … until the disease has been rendered non-communicable.” this may be accomplished through court action. if a person refuses treatment, a pha is authorized to petition the court of common pleas and the court, after a hearing, may commit the person to an appropriate institution (35 pa. stat. ann. §511(a.2). of potential practical significance is the act’s provision that certain forms of spiritual healing constitute acceptable treatment. section 521.11(a.3) expressly approves of such treatment: …it is understood that treatment approved by the department or by the local board or department of health shall include treatment by a duly authorized practitioner of any well recognized church or religious denomination which relies on prayer or spiritual means alone for healing: provided, however, that all requirements relating to sanitation, isolation or quarantine are complied with. [3 pa. stat. ann. §521.11(a.3)] this section seems to suggest that where spiritual treatment has been chosen by an infected person, a pha is authorized to use other control measures including isolation. this appears to be contrary to the language set forth in §521.11(a) that the pha may cause a person to be isolated when treatment is refused. the counterterrorism act 1. isolation. the term is not defined in the act but the governor is authorized to temporarily isolate a group or individual suspected of having or actually having a contagious disease due to an actual or suspected bioterrorist or biohazardous event. the governor may only order isolation if going through judicial proceedings “currently available” would cause a delay that would prevent or limit the pha’s ability to prevent or limit transmission of a contagious or potentially contagious disease to others [35 pa. stat. ann. §2140.301(a)]. if the governor proceeds without judicial authorization, he or she must petition the court within 24 hours and after a hearing, the court may order continued isolation for 30 days with additional isolation authorized, if warranted, upon further review. 38 crisis in the making: what’s wrong with pennsylvania public health law 2. quarantine. the term is not defined in the act. the act makes no distinction between isolation and quarantine and it would appear that the government’s authority with regard to quarantine is the same as isolation. as with isolation, a governor’s order is subject to judicial review [35 pa. stat. ann. §2140.301(a)]. 3. involuntary examination. there are no provisions related to this issue in the act. 4. involuntary treatment. there are no provisions related to this issue in the act. health department regulations the dpcl’s “control measure” approach to the spread of communicable disease is further developed in the regulations. section 27.60(a) provides that a pha: … shall direct … any other control measure the department or the local health authority considers to be appropriate for the surveillance of the disease, when the disease control measure is necessary to protect the public from the spread of infectious agents. section 27.60(b) further provides: the department and local health authority will determine the appropriate disease control measure based upon the disease or infection, the patient’s circumstances, the type of facility available and any other available information relating to the patient and the disease or infection. 1. isolation. the definition is, in all material respects, identical to that set forth in the dpcl. contrary to the dpcl, the regulations seem to require that a pha isolate a person who has a communicable disease. section 27.60 provides that the pha “shall direct the isolation of a person or an animal with a communicable disease or infection” (27 pa. admin. code §27.60). the regulations provide little guidance as to the proper place for isolation but §27.61 suggests that forms of isolation other than institutionalization may be appropriate by requiring that instructions be given to specified persons “defining the area within which the case is to be isolated and identifying the measures to be taken to prevent the spread of the disease” [35 pa. stat. ann. §27.61(3)].19 john a. bozza 39 section 27.87 provides that a pha shall isolate a person infected with a communicable disease who refuses treatment in an appropriate institution, “if it determines the action advances public health interests” [35 pa. stat. ann. §27.87(a)]. although the character of the institution is not precisely defined, it must be an institution designated by the pha and the isolation is to continue until the person is rendered noncommunicable. the rules also provide that the pha may release an individual from isolation when it determines the person no longer presents a threat to the public health (35 pa. stat. ann. §27.68). there are special isolation rules for persons infected with tuberculosis. a person who is suspected of having tuberculosis is to be kept in his or her residence if facilities for isolation are available there and the person accepts the isolation (35 pa. stat. ann. §27.161).20 if isolation in the person’s residence cannot be accomplished, then isolation is to occur in a manner as contemplated for other communicable diseases [35 pa. stat. ann. §27.161(2)]. 2. quarantine. under the rules, the definition of quarantine is similar but not identical to that found in the dpcl. as with isolation, the regulations require that a pha shall direct the “… surveillance, segregation, quarantine or modified quarantine of contacts of a person or an animal with a communicable disease or infection” [35 pa. stat. ann. §27.60(a)]. however, the rules also ascribe to a pha broad discretionary authority by providing that a pha “shall determine which contacts shall be quarantined, specify the place to which they shall be quarantined, and issue appropriate instructions” (35 pa. stat. ann. §27.65). the regulations also provide that a person under quarantine may be moved from one place to another as otherwise provided under §27.67, ostensibly to avoid contacts with others (35 pa. stat. ann. §27.1ii).21 there is one material difference in the definition that could significantly affect the duration of quarantine. the definition in the regulations states that a quarantine may last for “a period of time equal to the longest usual incubation period of the disease, or until judged noninfectious by a physician” (35 pa. stat. ann. §27.1ii; emphasis added). the highlighted language does not appear in the dpcl and is not further explained in the regulations. by simply referring to “a physician” it raises the prospect that the opinion of any physician, not withstanding the expression of a contrary view or for that matter an incorrect conclusion, 40 crisis in the making: what’s wrong with pennsylvania public health law may control the decision of the pha. moreover, the failure to adopt a more exacting standard sets the stage for potential conflict between a patient’s physician and the government’s physician. it also denotes that moving beyond the incubation period and being “non-infectious” are not necessarily synonymous. apparently the regulations contemplate that one can be non-infectious prior to the conclusion of the period or perhaps continue to be infectious following the incubation period. this is obviously a matter of scientific determination and thus the opinion of an appropriate expert regarding this matter would to be essential. 3. involuntary examination. the authority of a pha to require testing under the regulations is similar to the dpcl. whenever a pha has reasonable grounds to suspect that a person has been infected with an organism causing a communicable disease, it may require the individual to submit to a medical examination and “any other approved diagnostic procedure” (35 pa. stat. ann. §27.81). if the person refuses, the pha may cause the person to be quarantined until “it is determined that the person does not pose a threat to the public health …” [35 pa. stat. ann. §27.82(a)]. as with the dpcl, the rules authorize a pha to petition the court in circumstances where the person refuses a quarantine directive, and the court, following a hearing, may commit an individual who continues to refuse, to an institution determined by the state department of health to be suitable to care for such individuals [35 pa. stat. ann. §27.82(b)(2)(c)]. also consistent with the dpcl, a person ordered by the court to be examined may be examined by a physician of his or her own choosing (35 pa. stat. ann. §27.83). 4. involuntary treatment. section 27.88 allows the pha to order certain individuals to undergo preventative therapy, that is, therapy designed to prevent a disease from reverting to a communicable stage: if the disease is one which may be significantly reduced in its communicability following short-term therapy, but is likely to significantly increase in its communicability if that therapy is not continued, such as tuberculosis, the department or local health authority may order the person to complete therapy which is designed to prevent the disease from reverting to a communicable stage, including completion of an inpatient treatment regimen [35 pa. stat. ann. §27.87(a)(1)]. john a. bozza 41 the form of treatment for a communicable disease is not otherwise specified. like the dpcl, the regulations allow the pha to petition the court in the event that an individual refuses treatment and, although the court after a hearing shall upon finding that the person has refused treatment “issue an appropriate order,” nothing in the regulations state that the court can compel treatment. issues of compelling concern: a summary delineating clear lines of authority and responsibility in a time of a real or potential crisis, knowing which governmental authority or individual is authorized to act and, perhaps more significantly, who has the responsibility to act, is of paramount importance. the dpcl and related regulations need to be clarified to assure that decision-making will not be stymied by uncertainty about who has the authority to do what. the dpcl does not sufficiently differentiate the authority of local public health authorities from that of the department. as noted above, the act does not indicate whether the department has veto power over decisions of local public health authorities. although the department is designated as a supervisor who provides guidance to a local pha, neither the dpcl nor the regulations give precise parameters to that role. consider that the dpcl unequivocally states that primary responsibility for prevention and control of communicable disease resides with “(l)ocal boards and departments of health.” this ambiguity gives rise to the prospect of perhaps contradictory decisions with potentially disastrous results. there is some safeguard provided by the dpcl’s provision that if the secretary of the state department of health determines that the local pha’s “disease control program” is so inadequate that it constitutes a “menace to the health of the people,” he or she may appoint agents to carry out a disease control program [35 pa. stat. ann. §521.3(c)]. unfortunately, “disease control program” is not defined and it is not clear that this authority applies to a local decision in an individual case or circumstance. while it is conceivable that this situation could be clarified by administrative rulemaking, to date, it has not been. with regard to issues involving examination, treatment, quarantine and isolation of persons 42 crisis in the making: what’s wrong with pennsylvania public health law who have or are suspected of having a communicable disease, the regulations simply state that either the department or local health authority is authorized to take the appropriate action (see 27 pa. admin. code §§27.60, 27.82, 27.87, 27.88). the regulations do not address the relationship between state and local public health officials in any manner that clarifies the lines of authority or responsibility in this area of vital public concern. moreover, the terms “local qualified medical health officer” and “local medical health officers” are not defined in the statute and, although the regulations do not use these designations, they do not alter the authority of such individuals to take certain actions specified in the dpcl.22 in each instance, the terms connote a plethora of possible actors including virtually any physician and perhaps a variety of other health care workers who may be authorized to take action. neither term explicitly incorporates the designation of “local health officer,” a term that is defined in the dpcl as the head of the local department of health [35 pa. stat. ann. §521.2(g)].23 the use of these terms does seem to connote someone who has some form of medical training. even if it were to be assumed that the legislature intended some relationship among these designations or for that matter that they all referred to the same individual, the question remains as to what separates a “qualified” medical health officer from one who is not, or a “medical health officer” from one who is simply a health officer? the dpcl says that a “qualified” one may order a person suspected of being infected to undergo an examination and diagnostic testing and to quarantine the person for refusing to go along with it. if the court is ultimately requested to enforce an order from such an individual, it may well be necessary to first determine what it means to be “qualified.” given that one who is a “local qualified medical health officer” has designated public health responsibilities and the authority, under certain circumstances, to quarantine someone, this is not simply a matter of semantic nitpicking. it would seem reasonable to know if this includes the family doctor, a podiatrist, a dermatologist, a nurse or any other health care provider. while the rules provide for a position designated “health officer” in certain municipalities, only in certain counties does the person have to have to be a physician (28 pa. admin. code §§11.1, 13.11). john a. bozza 43 the turning point model state public health act (“model act”), the product of a collaborative initiative involving five states and a number of national organizations and experts in the in field of public health, provides no guidance with regard to the relationship between state and local pha’s (turning point model state public health act 2003). indeed it seems to leave this issue to the drafters of state statutes by referring to either a “state or local public health agency” as the actor responsible for undertakings such as mandatory treatment [turning point model state public health act 2003, §5-107(b)] or quarantine and isolation [turning point model state public health act 2003, §5-108(a)], without delineating particular lines of authority. it does, however, distinguish between those who are authorized to carry out the provisions of the act, ostensibly anyone so designated in a statute or regulatory scheme, from those who have the authority to “manage and supervise” an agency’s activities [turning point model state public health act 2003, §1-102 (44, 47)].24 the model act avoids the problem of designating a public health role for individuals whose titles are left undefined. while under the 35 pa. stat. ann., it is specifically provided that the governor is authorized to act, the question remains as to who actually determines that there is a cognizable threat in the first place. while the governor is empowered to act, upon whom he or she must depend for a determination of what are likely to be largely scientific questions is not addressed in the statute. this is particularly significant because, as noted above, the governor can only act in limited circumstances where inter alia there is an outbreak, actual or suspected, of a contagious disease due to a bioterrorist or biohazardous event and where the failure to do so will jeopardize the department’s ability to curtail the transmission of a contagious disease [35 pa. stat. ann. §2140.301(a)]. none of the critical terms are defined in the act and there is no framework, other than consultation with the “secretary of health,” for interpreting whether the conditions precedent to the exercise of the governor’s authority have been met [35 pa. stat. ann. §2140.301(a)].25 so if it were reported to the police in scranton, or kane, or harrisburg that there was what appeared to be an outbreak of an unknown disease of uncertain origin in the area of a waste-water treatment plant or perhaps another “white powder” incident at a courthouse, who within the commonwealth would be enlisted to determine whether it was a contagious disease resulting from a 44 crisis in the making: what’s wrong with pennsylvania public health law biohazardous event that required immediate action and advise the governor or a pha accordingly? moreover, who will be responsible for coordinating the overall government response and in particular assuring that the perhaps divergent priorities of criminal justice and public health authorities are properly accommodated? assuming that these issues would eventually get sorted out, any initial delay caused by either role ambiguity or a failure of necessary expertise could be very costly. in a similar vein, the consequences of precipitous action predicated on bad information or poor advice could be far reaching for individuals unnecessarily subjected to quarantine or isolation orders. and while these issues could well be addressed through administrative rulemaking, the board has adopted none. the provisions of the model state emergency health powers act (msehpa) are applicable to circumstances where a governor of a state declares a “public health emergency” (model state emergency health powers act 2001, article iv). such an emergency arises only when there is a high probability of a large number of deaths, serious or long-term disabilities, or widespread exposure to agents that pose a significant risk of substantial future harm [model state emergency health powers act 2001, §104(m)]. in such a circumstance the governor is authorized to take certain steps to respond to the threat of a public health crisis while the coordination of matters pertaining to a public health response is left to the pha. unfortunately, msepha defines pha in such a way as to include both state and local officials without delineating their respective scope of authority [model state emergency health powers act 2001, §403(b)]. it therefore offers little guidance in formulating a practical approach to adjusting pennsylvania’s public health law in a way that avoids confusion in the face of a public health event. controlling the government’s discretion while there can be no doubt that the government’s mission of responding to a public health concern is an essential component of a state’s police power, determining when and how that power should be exercised is the sine qua non of public health policy. in part this is because the state of science and more specifically, medicine, is inherently dynamic and as such, both the way we view the severity and significance of a health condition may very well change over time. yesterday’s epidemic may be rendered nothing more than an interesting john a. bozza 45 historical event by the development of an effective vaccine or treatment or improvement in environmental conditions or simply because of a change in the way in which a culture views it. the dpcl, for example, singles out both tuberculosis and venereal diseases for particular attention.26 while there are very important reasons to be concerned about both of these disease classifications, with the development of modern antibiotics, there is nowhere near the level of concern that existed when the dpcl was originally adopted. and yet even that has changed recently because the bacterium that causes tuberculosis has developed a strain that is resistant – sometimes very much so – to current modes of otherwise effective treatment (lewis 1995; see centers for disease control and prevention january 2008). when, then, is the threat to the public’s health sufficient to justify the government’s intervention? the law must serve as a vehicle for answering this question and provide a protocol for governmental decision-making. the challenge is do this in a way that accommodates the compelling need to take effective action while minimizing the risk of unnecessary restrictions on individual liberty. while the conditions that give rise to government action need to be delineated with a degree of precision, this must be accomplished without being so restrictive that the government’s ability to respond to serious threats to the public’s health is impaired. and while discretionary authority to act in such matters is essential, the need for competent scientific and medical expertise in support of decision-makers is of critical importance. protecting the public’s health demands science-driven decision-making.27 he definitions of both the dpcl and the counterterrorism act need to be revisited to provide for more precise standards related to a pha’s decision to act in the face of a public health concern. in its present form, the definition of “communicable disease” is so broad as to be unworkable. the board through its rule-making power has not provided any guidance. as a consequence, a pha has almost unlimited discretion in selecting control measures necessary to respond to a public health event involving communicable disease whether it be an outbreak of bird flu or the common cold. this issue is addressed in the model act in more than one way. for example, with regard to mandatory treatment, the act provides that a state may require a person to undergo medication therapy only when infected with “… a contagious disease that poses a significant risk to 46 crisis in the making: what’s wrong with pennsylvania public health law others or the public’s health” (turning point model state public health act 2003). by imposing a “significant risk” condition, the model act specifically limits the circumstances under which the government may act to require treatment for an infectious disease. perhaps most significantly however, the model act requires that when a public health agency acts “to accomplish essential public health services and functions, it shall, to the extent possible, employ the policy or practice that least infringes on the rights or interests of individuals” [turning point model state public health act 2003, §5-101(b)(4)]. the drafters of the model act reinforced the importance of this conceptual scheme by specifically requiring that the use of isolation and quarantine must be effectuated by the “least restrictive means” required to prevent the spread of a contagious disease [turning point model state public health act 2003, §5-108(a)(b)(1)]. by adopting a least restrictive alternative approach to the overall application of the act, it reduces the prospect that the government’s response to a public health concern will be disproportionate to the actual threat posed to the public. this concept is not included in either the dpcl or the counterterrorism act, nor is it a part of the board’s regulations.28 however, it is a concept that is firmly imbedded in pennsylvania jurisprudence. the mental health procedures act has embraced the notion that the government’s response to persons suffering from a serious mental illness and who require involuntary treatment must be measured and proportionate such that it “… shall impose the least restrictive alternative consistent with affording the person adequate treatment for his condition” (50 pa. stat. ann. §7107). moreover, the pennsylvania supreme court has long recognized the constitutional mandate to limit the exercise of government power in restricting personal liberty to means that are narrowly rather than broadly tailored to achieve the government’s legitimate purposes (appeal of albert l. niccoli 1977). in large part this orientation towards a minimalist approach to public health policy results from a belief that many, if not most, people afflicted with a communicable disease will voluntarily seek treatment or comply with the government’s request to obtain it or embrace other restrictions and that for those who do not, it is likely the result of some psychological condition that interferes with their rational decision-making ability. for this group, lesser rather than greater efforts on the part of the government may well be adequate to meet the government’s concern (gostin, burris and lazzarini 1999, 123-124). on john a. bozza 47 the other hand this assumption may be entirely too optimistic. in the face of what is portrayed or perceived as an imminent health threat, compliance with even relatively innocuous preventive measures may be seriously problematic because of distrust of government or the medical community or because of the inherently uncertain nature of a public health threat presented. therefore any least restrictive alternative requirement must be adopted in a context that explicitly contemplates its practical limitations and provides accordingly. msehpa by definition limits action to circumstances that meet a certain threshold of seriousness. this is encompassed in the definition of public health emergency. most notably, however, the msehpa also embraces the least restrictive alternative approach to isolation and quarantine that is so critical to the conceptual scheme of the model act: isolation and quarantine must be by the least restrictive means necessary to prevent the spread of a contagious disease or possibly contagious disease to others and may include, but are not limited to, confinement to private homes or other private or public premises [model state emergency health powers act 2001, §604(b)(1)]. harmonizing statutory and regulatory provisions at a time of crisis the law should be a source for direction that points the way for government action in a clear and concise manner. the existence of separate statutes dealing with what are essentially identical public health concerns poses a barrier to effective and proper governmental action. whether a contagious disease is the result of a bioterrorist or biohazardous event, however defined, or of some natural phenomenon, may be of immense practical consequence in terms of the steps needed to ultimately stop its spread. however, from the perspective of the kind of legislative guidance needed to deal with a public health crisis, divergent statutes that incorporate contradictory or differing terminology and differing mechanisms for decision-making only serve to obfuscate the matter and serve as a barrier to sound and expedient decision-making. there is no public policy or other reason that pennsylvania could not adopt a single statutory scheme that incorporates the provisions of both the dpcl and the public health sections of the counterterrorism act. this would allow for conceptual clarity, common terminology, uniform procedures, and a single source for administrative 48 crisis in the making: what’s wrong with pennsylvania public health law rule making, while at the same time assuring the flexibility critical for an effective localized response. conclusion we learned from the disaster that followed hurricane katrina that preparedness is much more than a state of mind and that there can be little comfort in the mere existence of laws or the development of plans. in the final analysis, in times of crisis, it is performance that counts. pennsylvania has a body of public health law that provides for the implementation of various measures to control the spread of contagious diseases in varying circumstances. it has provided for the development of plans to respond to health and other emergencies (35 pa. stat. ann. §2140.201). but the cornerstone of pennsylvania public health law, the disease control and prevention act, has not been comprehensively overhauled since its adoption in 1955. more importantly, its efficacy has never been seriously tested in the context of a significant public health crisis and as a consequence it has received almost no judicial attention. a similar situation exists with the counterterrorism planning, preparedness and response act although it is of far more recent vintage. and although the board is authorized to formulate rules to facilitate the implementation of the dpcl, it has not done so in any kind of comprehensive manner. how, then, will pennsylvania perform in the face of a threatened public health crisis, including the outbreak of deadly flu epidemic or antibiotic-resistant tuberculosis or some other ominous but yet to be identified infectious agent? it is suggested that unless key aspects of pennsylvania law are clarified and/or modified, we risk far from adequate performance from public officials responsible for the public’s health. responding to a public health crisis should not be an experiment. that we will surely learn from our ultimate mistakes and the shortcomings of our laws should give us no comfort. now is the time to act to address the limitations of our statutory and regulatory scheme. john a. bozza 49 notes 1. the government’s authority to require people to act in a certain manner to further the public’s health has long been recognized as emanating from its “police power” (see nat'l wood preservers v. commonwealth dep't of envtl. res. 1980; o’connor v. donaldson 1975). 2. influenza a (h5n1) virus is one subtype that is highly contagious in birds and has been transmitted to humans in a limited number of cases. the centers for disease control provides a more complete description of the history and current status of avian influenza (centers for disease control and prevention 7 may 2007). the pennsylvania department of health has an excellent explanation of avian flu on its website (2005). 3. in discussing the nature and history of quarantines, batlan notes that, “ … (t)here has not been a widespread medical quarantine in the united states for at least eighty years” (batlan, 2007, 59). 4. the authors describe the significance of jurisdiction in the public health law arena and note the need to articulate clearly the scope of authority and responsibility of public health departments (gostin, burris and lazzarini, 1999). weeks generally discusses the need for a coordinated response between federal and state authorities when faced with a public health crisis and points out the interplay of state and federal authority (weeks, 2007). 5. batlan notes the potential for confusion resulting from divergent responses to public health events from government bureaucracies (batlan, 2007, 59). chen comments on the important role of state governments while recognizing the necessity of federal action in certain circumstances (chen, 2005, 175-176). 6. chen observed that the model state emergency health powers act (msehpa), which was formulated at the request of the center for disease control and that has been the used as basis for pennsylvania’s counterterrorism act, has “engendered a storm of controversy” (chen, 2005, 168-173). 7. similarly, the significant due process issues that often arise any time the government seeks to invade liberty interests are not addressed but are of nonetheless compelling concern (daubert, 2007). chen describes the due process issues associated with the provisions of pennsylvania’s counterterrorism act (chen, 2005). 8. this section [35 pa. stat. ann. §521.16(c)] provides that, “municipalities which have boards or departments of health or county departments of health may enact ordinances or issue rules and regulations relating to disease control, which are not less strict than the provisions of this act or the rules and regulations issued there under by the board.” by adoption of the local health administration law, pennsylvania provides for the creation of county departments of health authorized to act in particular circumstances (16 pa. stat. ann. §12005). it has been observed that there are 237 local boards or departments of health that operate outside the local health administration law (pennsylvania public health law bench book 2006, note 2). 9. “department” is defined in the dpcl as the state department of health [35 pa. stat. ann. §521.2(d)]. 50 crisis in the making: what’s wrong with pennsylvania public health law 10. moreover, some municipalities and counties with health departments may adopt rules that authorize other individuals or entities to act [see, dpcl 1955, §521.16(c)]. under such arrangements there is a way to anticipate the role that may be played by the state department of health or any local public health authority. 11. see 28 pa. admin. code, §27.65, requiring an lha not a lmro to consult with the state department before requiring isolation of a person harboring an infectious agent. 12. see 35 pa. stat. ann. §521.7, relating to examination and diagnosis; and 35 pa. stat. ann. §521.11, relating to treatment. however, it must noted that the dpcl does specify that certain pha’s are “responsible for the prevention and control of communicable and non-communicable disease,” so it is apparent that a pha may act to prevent noncommunicable disease as well. for purposes of this analysis non-communicable diseases are not addressed. 13. however, the dpcl was amended in 1994 to deal separately with mandatory testing for human immunodeficiency virus (hiv) [35 pa. stat. ann. §521.11(a)]. the amendments were ostensibly necessitated by requirements of the federal omnibus crime control and safe streets act. 14. there is no similar requirement for isolating persons who are suspected of being infected but who have refused testing (35 pa. stat. ann. §521.7). 15. however, a more realistic view of the scope of a pha’s authority comes into focus when the practical impact of the pennsylvania department of health’s sparse regulations is considered. 16. the dpcl only explicitly addresses treatment for venereal disease and then only by providing for “free treatment” when necessary for preservation of the public health. 17. the terms modified quarantine, surveillance and segregation are also defined in §521.2(i)(1,2,3). 18. this section of the dpcl also sets forth certain procedures to follow in court cases and more fully describes the parameters of the examination. 19. there is, however, specific authorization to isolate or quarantine a person suspected of having a sexually transmitted disease in an institution where the person’s movement is physically restricted [35 pa. stat. ann. §27.88(a)]. 20. this procedure is akin to the least restricted alternative approach discussed hereafter as it requires the government to first try to accomplish its objective by having the person confined to her home with instructions on how to prevent the spread of the disease. if that doesn’t work, then other less favorable means may be invoked. 21. the term does not exclude the movement of a person “… from one location to another when approved by the department or local health authority…” 22. it is entirely possible that municipal codes have the same, different or additional designations for individuals authorized to act. 23. however, the rules identify the “health director” as the administrator of the county health department (16 pa. stat. ann. §12012). although the health director is not required to be a physician, a local health department must employ one (28 pa. admin. code §§15.22, 15.25). john a. bozza 51 24. public health agents would include a broad class of individuals who are designated to carry out the specific public health functions, while public health officials are those more narrowly concerned with the day-to-day operation of a public health agency. nonetheless, the model act leaves it to individual states to more precisely define who is to be included in each category as well as their scope of authority. there is an exception to this approach with regard to reporting requirements where the model act imposes a duty on a “health care provider,” broadly defined to report a condition of public health importance [see §5-103[f](1)]. 25. similarly, when the pha proceeds to petition the court to authorize isolation or quarantine, the act is silent as to how a decision is to be made with regard to the nature of a biohazardous event, its potential public health consequences and the appropriate response. 26. hiv is not included in the venereal disease category and is treated separately in the dpcl. this focus on specific diseases in state codes is not uncommon and over time this focus has shifted to different disease processes and other health concerns (gostin, et al. 1999). 27. hiv is not included in the venereal disease category and is treated separately in the dpcl. this focus on specific diseases in state codes is not uncommon and over time this focus has shifted to different disease processes and other health concerns (gostin, et al. 1999). 28. but, see 28 pa. admin. code §27.161(1), requiring that if adequate facilities are available, a person infected with tuberculosis must be isolated in his or her own residence. references appeal of albert l. niccoli. 1977. 472 pa. 389; 372 a.2d 749; 1977 pa. lexis 643. batlan, felice. 2007. “law in the time of cholera: disease, state power, and quarantines past and future.” temple law review 80: 53. centers for disease control and prevention. may 7, 2007. “key facts about avian influenza (bird flu) and avian influenza a (h5n1) virus.” http://www.cdc.gov/flu/ avian/gen-info/facts.htm (accessed july 29, 2008). centers for disease control and prevention. december 12, 2003. “revised u.s. surveillance case definition for severe acute respiratory syndrome (sars) and update on sars cases -united states and worldwide.” morbidity and mortality weekly report 52 (49): 1202-1206. http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/ mm5249a2.htm (accessed july 29, 2008). centers for disease control and prevention. february 17, 2006. past avian influenza outbreaks. http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/outbreaks/past.htm (accessed july 29, 2008). centers for disease control and prevention. january 2008. “multi-drug resistant tuberculosis (mdr-tb).” fact sheet. http://www.cdc.gov/tb/pubs/tbfactsheets/ mdrtb.htm (accessed july 30, 2008). 52 crisis in the making: what’s wrong with pennsylvania public health law centers for disease control and prevention. may 28, 2008. “influenza pandemic preparedness.” questions and answers about avian influenza (bird flu) and avian influenza a (h5n1) virus. http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/gen-info/qa.htm#3 (accessed july 29, 2008). chen, kathleen c. 2005. “pennsylvania’s bioterrorism act: better prevention from better preparation.” tem. pol. and civ. rts. law review 15: 165,175-176. daubert, michelle a. 2007. “comment: pandemic fears and contemporary quarantine: protecting liberty through a continuum of due process rights.” buffalo law review 54: 1299. gostin, lawrence o., et al. 2002. “model state emergency health powers act: planning for and response to bioterrorism and naturally occurring infectious diseases.” jama 288: 622-628. gostin, lawrence, scott burris, and zita lazzarini. 1999. “the law and the public’s health: a study of infectious disease law in the united states.” columbia law review 99: 59. lewis, ricki. 1995. “the rise of antibiotic-resistant infections.” fda consumer magazine (september). http://www.fda.gov/fdac/features/795_antibio.html (accessed july 29, 2008). mason, christopher. 2007. “poor hospital practices blamed for 2003 sars epidemic in toronto.” the new york times. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/10/world/ americas/10canada.html?_r=1andn=top%2fnews%2fhealth%2fdiseases%2c%20co nditions%2c%20and%20health%20topics%2fsars%20%28severe%20acute%20 respiratory%20syndrome%29andoref=slogin. model state emergency health powers act. 2001. the center for law and the public’s health at georgetown and johns hopkins universities. http://www.publichealthlaw. net/msehpa/msehpa2.pdf (accessed july 29, 2008). msnbc. february 23, 2005. “who: bird flu pandemic is imminent.” http://www.msnbc. msn.com/id/6861065/ (accessed july 29, 2008). nat'l wood preservers v. commonwealth dep't of envtl. res. 1980. 489 pa. 221, 414 a.2d 37. o’ leary, n. pieter m. 2006. “cock-a-doodle-doo: pandemic avian influenza and the legal prepartion and consequences of h5n1 influenza outbreak.” health matrix 16: 511, 514-518. o’connor v. donaldson. 1975. 422 u.s. 582, 95 s. ct. 2486,45 l. ed. 2d 396. pennsylvania department of health. 2005. avian flu. http://www.dsf.health. state.pa.us/health/cwp/view.asp?a=178andq=243043 (accessed july 29, 2008). pennsylvania public health law bench book. 2006. administrative office of the pennsylvania courts. john a. bozza 53 reich, daniel s. 2003. “modernizing local responses to public health emergencies: bioterrorism, epidemics, and the model state emergency health powers act.” j. contemp. health law and policy 19: 379, 380. schwartz, john. june 2, 2007. “tangle of conflicting accounts in the tb patient’s odyssey.” the new york times. http://travel.nytimes.com/2007/06/02/health/ 02tick.html (accessed july 29, 2008). turning point model state public health act. 2003. the robert wood johnson foundation, turning point initiative. http://www.publichealthlaw.net/resources/ modellaws.htm#tp (accessed february 5, 2008). weeks, elizabeth. 2007. “lessons from katrina: response, recovery and the public health infrastructure.” depaul j. health care 10: 251. 41 where was the electricity? agenda setting and the politics of electric-rate caps in pennsylvania daniel j. mallinson the pennsylvania state university electric-power deregulation policy in the united states has served as useful research material for political scientists. this article uses a case study of the implementation of electric-rate deregulation in pennsylvania to draw conclusions about broader agenda-setting theory. case studies are useful for testing and improving broad theoretical concepts, particularly when deviations from the expectations of those theories occur. there was reasonable expectation for a policy punctuation surrounding electric-rate mitigation in 2008, but that punctuation never came. this article supports the notion that punctuations do not always follow periods of policy stability, even if policy has become misaligned with preferences. in this case, environmental factors (i.e., economic conditions) served to release pressure in the system for policy punctuation. this article also reinforces the usefulness of case studies in political science. the deregulation of electricity supply in the united states has provided political scientists with useful research material. for instance, ka and teske (2002) used deregulation policy to draw conclusions about the influence of legislative ideology and bureaucratic professionalism on redistributive and technical policies, respectively. likewise, andrews (2000) used the spread of electric-rate deregulation legislation among the american states in the 1990s to augment the literature on policy diffusion. a case study of the implementation of electric-rate deregulation in pennsylvania in particular tests our current understanding of the agenda-setting stage of the policy process and how agenda dynamics drive policy outcomes. in the midst of expiring electric-rate caps, rising energy prices, active policy entrepreneurs, consumer concern, multiple legislative proposals, and 42 where was the electricity? a supportive governor, a window was open in harrisburg in 2008 for policy to mitigate the negative effects of the impending expiration of rate caps on electricity. but that policy never came. the deep recession triggered by the collapse of major financial institutions in 2008 and the protracted state budget battle in 2009 substantially altered the policy agenda in pennsylvania. changes in the political and economic environments acted like a pressurerelease valve, dissipating political pressure for rate-cap mitigation. this article contributes to the agenda-setting literature in political science by presenting a case study of the history of rate caps in pennsylvania. it illuminates four aspects of agenda setting: policy punctuation (baumgartner and jones 2009; jones, baumgartner, and true 1998), pressure valves (berkman and reenock 2004), policy windows (kingdon 2003), and feedback loops contributing to the evolutionary nature of policy change (majone and wildavsky 1978). such a case study clarifies how these broad theoretical ideas actually operate within state government. additionally, the article shows that sudden changes in either the economic or the political environment can act as a safety valve releasing the pressure for policy punctuation. this finding is important because it facilitates better understanding of punctuated equilibrium. the article begins with a discussion of these concepts and their importance as cornerstones of our understanding of agenda setting. it then provides background information on the issue of electric-market regulation in pennsylvania. after setting the stage in terms of theory and history, the article addresses the opening and closing of the policy window on rate caps. the article ends with conclusions about both the contribution of this case study to the literature on agenda setting and the usefulness of case studies generally in providing deeper context on broader theoretical concepts. agenda setting and policy outcomes because the policymaking process in the united states is complex, scholars have largely taken a piecemeal approach to ascertaining its dynamics (sabatier 1991), even with the narrow agenda-setting phase of the process. hence, some scholars study issue framing (rochefort and cobb 1994) and media effects (cook 1989; 2005), whereas others focus on specific institutions, such as congress (sulkin 2005), the presidency (beckmann 2010), and the u.s. supreme court (baird 2006). more recently, scholars have developed macro-level models of the process (baumgartner and jones 2009; jones and baumgartner 2005; kingdon 2003). the core argument for examining the process of agenda setting is that who sets the agenda—and how they do it—provides insight into the question why particular political outcomes are produced. kingdon (2003) and baumgartner and jones (2009) provide different explanations for the macro-level dynamics of agenda setting. starting with 43 daniel j. mallinson cohen, march, and olsen’s (1972) “garbage can” model of organizational choice, kingdon built a garbage can model of agenda setting through detailed interviews of policy actors at the national level. essentially, the model describes a process whereby policy ideas are metaphorically floating around in a garbage can. when a policy window is opened by events and policy entrepreneurs who draw attention to a problem, legislators reach into the garbage can and retrieve a solution to the problem. a significant drawback of kingdon’s model is that it really addresses only substantial policy change (i.e., policy punctuations), not incremental changes, which are far more frequent. much past work on policymaking in the united states has focused on these incremental changes (see davis, dempster, and wildavsky 1966; lindblom 1959). baumgartner and jones (2009) and jones and baumgartner (2005) depart from this previous work on agenda setting by fusing both incremental and substantial policy change into a single theory of punctuated equilibrium (see also jones, baumgartner, and true 1998). they argue that a key to this pattern is the ability of government to process policy information both serially and in parallel. typically, the system processes information in a parallel fashion where, for example, congressional committees pass noncomprehensive policy changes or bureaucracies institute new rules that slightly alter existing policy. this process continues until policy becomes misaligned with the preferences of new or previously marginalized actors. subsequent mobilization of these actors causes pressure to build for a shift from the current equilibrium to a new one. to achieve this shift, the legislature must enter a mode of serial processing where it focuses attention on a single policy area. the affordable care act of 2009 (aca) is a useful example. the election of barack obama, combined with democratic control of congress, brought considerable attention to healthcare policy in the united states. the government thus devoted substantial political resources to healthcare reform, which facilitated passage of comprehensive legislation. the aca altered the policy equilibrium not only for the national government but also for the states. one example of serial processing at the state level is the occasional use of special legislative sessions to focus governmental attention on a particularly pressing problem. granted, not all special sessions achieve their intended policy goals, and given the high resource demand of serial processing, such sessions are short lived. subsequent research by berkman and reenock (2004) adds to the macro-level punctuated equilibrium theory by addressing why periods of incremental change are not always followed by punctuations. their work examined the reorganization of state administrative agencies over time. although they found both comprehensive and incremental changes to state organizational structures, they did not find that incremental changes were always followed by punctuations. instead, they concluded that “incremental 44 where was the electricity? steps may be enough of a middle-level response to relieve internal political pressure that comes about . . . from the growing misalignment of design with demands” (berkman and reenock 2004, 810). in this way, incremental changes act like a pressure-relief valve instead of contributing to a buildup of pressure for punctuated change. additionally, the cyclicality of the policy process is widely understood and consistently communicated in most courses and textbooks on public policy. indeed, a political matter is not settled merely because a law has been passed. bureaucracies must implement that policy, and policy entrepreneurs (and the bureaucrats themselves) continue to work to achieve their desired policy outcomes. moreover, the subsequent success or failure of implementation leads to feedback loops where policymakers turn their attention to implementation problems and adjust a policy over time. in this way, policy has a tendency to evolve after reaching the implementation stage and implementation may, in turn, have an effect on agenda setting (majone and wildavsky 1978; see also sabatier 1986 and 1991 for reviews of the implementation literature). the work by bryan jones and frank baumgartner on punctuated equilibrium has gained widespread attention in political science as a compelling macro-level explanation of agenda setting. nonetheless, many quirks and deviations in a given macro-theory inevitably appear when examining actual cases of a particular process. closer review permits better understanding of the occurrence of deviations that remain unexplained by macro-theory. the work of berkman and reenock (2004) is a good example. finding both support for the macro-theory of punctuated equilibrium and cases where the expected outcome was not realized, they added to our understanding of how the theory plays out in real life. that is also the intent of this article, which affirms the usefulness of case studies. the contextual information they provide, particularly in cases where a macro-theory does not play out as expected, can enrich theoretical understanding. through use of a case study, the remainder of this article connects the process of electric-rate deregulation in pennsylvania to the relevant literature. after first presenting some background information on electric-rate regulation in the united states and pennsylvania, the article then addresses the opening and subsequent closing of a policy window for policy intended to mitigate rate increases due to the expiration of electric-rate caps, showing how rapid changes in the political and economic environments can quickly alter the government’s agenda and deflate the pressure for policy punctuation. electric-rate regulation in the united states understanding the basic structure of the electric-power market is important for understanding how electricity has been regulated and 45 daniel j. mallinson deregulated in the united states.1 the electric-power system has three primary elements: generation, transmission, and distribution. generation involves the production of electricity from various sources, such as the sun, wind, coal, natural gas, and nuclear power. demand for electricity is spread across the united states, but generation tends to be centralized. therefore, the transportation of electric power (i.e., transmission), sometimes across great distances, is essential for matching supply with demand. once the electricity arrives at the desired location, it is reduced to a lower voltage and distributed to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. traditionally, electric-power companies controlled this entire supply chain (referred to as a vertical monopoly). regulation of the electric-power industry has its roots in a u.s. supreme court case about grain elevators (munn v. illinois 1877) where the court ruled that the fourteenth amendment does not prevent states from regulating private property that affects the public interest. through the public utility holding act of 1935 (pucha), regulation of electric power has become a shared responsibility of the national government and the states.2 the federal energy regulatory commission (ferc) regulates the wholesale market for electric power that involves interstate transactions between suppliers and retailers of electricity. after retailers procure electric power from wholesale markets, they sell it to end users through retail markets that are regulated by the individual states. the electric-power industry in pennsylvania is regulated by the state’s public utility commission (puc). more than 40 years after pucha subjected electric-utility holding companies to increased national and state regulation, the public utilities regulatory policies act of 1978 (purpa) started the process of electricrate deregulation. purpa was passed at the beginning of a sustained period of deregulation in the united states that touched a broad array of industries including transportation, natural gas, financial services, and telecommunications. the most significant national step toward electricrate deregulation came with the passage of the energy policy act of 1992 (epact), which opened the wholesale electric-power market to competition and encouraged the participation of independent generators of electricity. although ferc could enable “all players to request access to new wholesale markets” (public utility commission 1995, 15), it could not force deregulation of retail electricity markets that remained under state jurisdiction. in essence, states still held power over whether individual consumers could shop for their own power. competition in pennsylvania it did not take long for deregulation of the retail electricity market to take hold in pennsylvania after passage of the epact. on april 14, 1994, the 46 where was the electricity? pennsylvania puc started an investigation into the merits of deregulation in the commonwealth. before the puc issued its report, the state’s house of representatives passed what would eventually become the pennsylvania electricity generation customer choice and competition act.3 on august 4, 1995, the puc released a staff report concluding that partial deregulation of the electricity industry was prudent for pennsylvania. governor tom ridge stood behind deregulation and argued that low-cost electricity resulting from competition would serve as “an enormously powerful economic development tool” (ridge 1996, 2; ridge 1997, 2). on november 25, 1996, the pennsylvania senate approved the amended act, the house concurred, and restructuring of the electric-power industry was signed into law by the governor on december 3, 1996. pennsylvania thereby became the nation’s fourth state to restructure its electricity markets. the electric-power market was only partially deregulated (i.e., restructured). the act allows for competition among electric-power suppliers, but not for distribution or transmission. monopoly control of these two aspects of electric-power supply and related regulation of distribution rates and transmission line sighting by the puc are still in place. as a result of restructuring, the puc was granted the additional authority to license competitive suppliers who wished to enter the marketplace. the puc also negotiated restructuring settlements with each existing electric-power supplier in the commonwealth. a key outcome of these negotiations was the implementation of caps on electricity prices charged by these providers of last resort. rate caps were put into place “to ensure that the transition to competition didn’t lead to increased rates for consumers” (ridge 1997, 4). in exchange for these caps, utilities were allowed to recover stranded costs for investments (e.g., new generation) that would be unwise or unnecessary in a newly deregulated environment. initially, pennsylvania enjoyed much success with competition. kiesling (2001) reports that customers saved $3 billion between 1999 and 2001 as electric-power rates fell by 3%. kiesling (2001) also reports that 130 competitive suppliers operated in pennsylvania in 2001, and 600,000 customers had switched to a competitive supplier. that same year, pennsylvania’s deregulation program was ranked number one in the nation by the center for the advancement of energy markets. kiesling (2001) credits this success to multiple factors. the first is the level at which default-service prices and rate caps were set. pennsylvania set higher default-service prices on the basis of “market models and forecasts” to encourage the entry of competitive suppliers (kiesling 2001, 4). in addition, pennsylvania had a rapid four-year phase-in of competition that allowed the benefits of increased competition and lower rates to be realized more quickly. other factors that kiesling (2001) credits with promoting competition were the lack of a divestiture requirement, which would have 47 daniel j. mallinson forced utilities to sell off their generation (although many did anyway), and pennsylvania’s participation in the pjm regional electricity market. in 2001, the puc’s chairman, john quain, noted that “before electric choice, pennsylvania electric-power rates were 15% above the national average, and now our rates are 4.4% below the national average” (office of the governor 2001, 2). this success would prove to be short lived. rate mitigation and an open window even though pennsylvania enjoyed initial success with electric-power competition, the recession in 2001 and rising energy costs drove competitive suppliers out of the state. figure 1 below illustrates this trend using data on customer shopping for electric power collected by pennsylvania’s office of consumer advocate. it shows the total number of customers—residential, industrial, and commercial—served by alternative suppliers from 1999 to 2011.4 competition increased during the first three years of deregulation but then steadily declined beginning in 2002.5 instead of turning to various competitors vying for business and providing lower prices, most customers simply relied on their original local distributor of electric power (i.e., providers of last resort) for purchasing their power. complex circumstances led to this situation. one major problem was the difficult economic environment that utilities faced after deregulation. munson (2005, 173) writes that the recession that began in 2001 “curtailed figure 1 total number of customers (all types) served by an alternative electric supplier, 1999-2011. 48 where was the electricity? power demand and put enormous financial pressure on entrepreneurs and others thinking of entering the power business.” following directly on the coattails of this recession were dramatic increases in the price of fuels like natural gas, coal, and oil. this price increases caused a significant rise in the cost to produce a kilowatt of electricity (see edison electric institute 2006a and 2006b; edison foundation 2006).6 according to the puc, while natural gas prices increased 88.2% and coal prices rose 91% from 1996 to 2006, the average price for electricity in pennsylvania increased only 6.53% (public utility commission 2008a). artificial rate caps thus kept electricity prices stable for consumers while simultaneously creating an artificial price ceiling that drove out competitive suppliers. the impact of economic conditions and weak competition on electricity rates became clear as rate caps began to expire across the state. in 2002, duquesne light customers saw a 20% decrease in the cost of their electric power when the company’s rate caps expired. the drop was steep because duquesne charged one of the nation’s highest rates for electricity until deregulation and thus had an unusually high cap. furthermore, the expiration occurred in the midst of the recession during the early 2000s and before the subsequent rise in energy prices. in contrast, by the time pike county light and power’s rate caps expired in 2006, competition was tepid and energy costs had spiked because of the devastating effects of hurricane katrina. consequently, pike county’s customers saw an increase of roughly 70% in their electric-power costs. pennsylvania power residential customers also saw their rates rise 20%–30% after their caps expired in 2006. these large rate increases occurred during a period of what baumgartner and jones (2009) call “parallel processing” when multiple smaller organs of government are working on an issue and making incremental changes within their jurisdiction. pike county light and power’s experience showed that the remaining 85% of the state’s consumers who were under rate caps could face substantial rate increases in 2010 and 2011 when the remaining caps expired. while awareness of this issue increased, parallel processing continued. for instance, in the lead up to rate-cap removal the puc proposed a statewide consumer education campaign that would be a joint effort of the puc and default electric-power suppliers. legislative proposals and hearings on strategies for mitigating rate increases became serious after sonny popowsky, pennsylvania consumer advocate, announced in may 2008 that rate increases for the five remaining capped companies would likely range from 8% to 63% (levy 2008a). the growing reality that rate-cap expiration in an unfavorable economic environment with limited competition would cause double-digit rate increases spurred the state government to consider rate mitigation strategies. in fact, governor ed rendell called for a special session on energy during the 2007–8 legislative session. the window was open as 49 daniel j. mallinson pennsylvania’s government moved from parallel to serial processing of the rate-cap issue. during this time, state officials proposed four approaches to rate-cap expiration: reregulation, rate-cap expiration, rate-cap extension, and legislative phase-in. each of these potential solutions is recognizable within the agenda setting framework outlined above. reregulation of the four options, reregulation of the electricity industry most closely resembles baumgartner and jones’s (2009) idea of policy punctuation. it is also a substantial enough policy response that it could be explained using the elements of kingdon’s (2003) garbage can model. reregulation would require considerable state attention and resources and would therefore be a major shift in policy. to unwind deregulation completely, utilities would have to repurchase electricity generation facilities so that the original vertical monopolies could be restored. given the political and economic costs, full reregulation was not widely promoted in pennsylvania. apt, blumsack, and lave (2007, 78) argued that a return to a fully regulated electric-power industry in pennsylvania “would send electricity prices skyrocketing” because of utility buyback of power plants. moreover, utilities would revert to being fully regulated by the puc and lose the opportunity to earn greater profits in the free market. a profitdriven corporation clearly would not favor this option. even though this approach would have been a clear punctuation, there was never enough political pressure for such a change. a less drastic option that still includes increased state regulation of the electricity market was presented as an alternative to reregulation. it involved the creation of a state power authority that would essentially become an alternative supplier of electricity along with the development of a longterm plan for financing the construction of new generation in an uncertain marketplace. this option garnered more political support in harrisburg than did full reregulation. in fact, representative camille “bud” george (d–clearfield) introduced legislation in 2008 and 2010 that would have created such an authority. puc’s vice-chairman, tyrone christy, was a vocal proponent of this option (pa house 2009b), but he was fairly alone in the endeavor (see, e.g., powelson 2010). rate-cap expiration at the opposite end of the policy spectrum from reregulation, the second option for the general assembly was simply to do nothing and allow deregulation to run its course. this option would have put state government back into a parallel processing of the problem, leaving rate-cap mitigation to 50 where was the electricity? agencies like the puc and related committees in the general assembly that could pass less comprehensive mitigation policy. utilities were particularly supportive of this option, as they would be able to charge market rates for power that exceeded their negotiated rate caps. in addition, new suppliers were anxious to set up shop in pennsylvania. in fact, puc’s chairman, james cawley (2009, 3), reported that “suppliers have told our commission that they are eager to enter . . . service territories in pennsylvania beginning [in 2010].” proponents assumed that competition would drive down electricity prices in the medium to long term (apt, blumsack, and lave 2007). accordingly, industry was firmly behind the status quo. in terms of political support, there were proponents of rate-cap expiration on both sides of the aisle in harrisburg. to be sure, democrats in the house and senate were more skeptical than republicans about deregulation. governor rendell also generally supported the state completing the deregulation process, although he saw the need for some type of rate increase mitigation. in their testimony before the assembly, puc’s chairman cawley and commissioner powelson vigorously supported electric-power deregulation. outside of state government, interest groups representing utilities, such as the electric power generators association, actively and vocally advocated deregulation. altogether, the diverse support for deregulation created a large hurdle for advocates of rate increase mitigation strategies like rate-cap extension and a state-mandated phase-in. rate-cap extension the option to extend rate caps resembles the pressure-release-valve idea inspired by berkman and reenock (2004). it would have provided shortterm mediation of rate increases and given the general assembly more time to develop a long-term solution to volatile electricity rates. the downside was that rate caps would remain barriers to entry for alternative suppliers and thus inhibit the development of new competition. as puc’s chairman cawley noted in testimony, “you can only defy gravity for so long” (general assembly 2008a, 18). he argued that extending rate caps would have made the situation worse later. indeed, others argued that utilities would pay a substantial cost for each additional day that rate caps were retained (fumo 2008) and that artificially low prices result in the “over-consumption of electricity” (fitzpatrick 2008a). california was often cited by opponents of rate-cap extension as the worst-case scenario of this policy option (see crutchfield 2008; fitzpatrick 2008a; lesser 2007; tierney 2008). california has traditionally been a net importer of electricity from neighboring states because it uses more electricity than it produces. during deregulation the state required utilities to divest their generation components and buy power solely from the spot 51 daniel j. mallinson market rather than through more stable long-term contracts. by 2001, california was facing rising wholesale market prices, increased consumer demand, and capped electricity rates that caused utilities to pay more for power than they could recover. california was not the only state experiencing increased electricity demand. facing similar difficulties, neighboring supplier states could not meet california’s increased demand. worse, a shortage of transmission capacity prevented power from traveling to the places where it was needed most. as a result, an electric-power crisis rocked california with rolling blackouts and the bankruptcy of major electricity distributors (hirst 2001). forced to intervene to keep the lights on, the state has moved toward reregulation. although pennsylvania was arguably in a better position in 2008 than california was in 2001 (see epga 2001), there was fear that “the extension of rate caps . . . would bankrupt the transmission and distribution elements of energy, causing undue burden on the industry and consumers alike” (powelson 2008, 6). this fear was pervasive among industry leaders and regulators. despite opposition from regulators and industry alike, there was political support in harrisburg for rate-cap extension. in 2008, senate democrats threatened to “pass a bill to continue the freeze of rates at 1990 levels” if the utilities did not find a way to provide $5 billion in rate mitigation (levy 2008b).7 representative george introduced legislation in the house that would have extended rate caps for 54 months. senator lisa boscola (d–northampton/lehigh/monroe) introduced companion legislation in the senate. finally, governor rendell expressed support for this policy option as a last resort if no other rate mitigation strategy was put in place. he warned that “if solutions . . . are not approved, the pressure to simply extend the current rate caps will be overwhelming, and none of us here today will be able to resist that pressure, nor should we. consumers must be protected one way or another. that is our job and we must do it” (general assembly 2008b, 12–13). thus, there was a potential well of political support for ratecap extension in both houses of the general assembly as well as in the governor’s mansion. legislative phase-in on july 1, 2008, state senate democrats vince fumo (philadelphia), lisa boscola, jim ferlo (allegheny), and sean logan (allegheny/ westmorland) held a press conference at which they proposed an alternative pressure-release device to rate-cap extension. it involved a phase-in of electric-power rates. according to the senators, “the purpose of the phasein is to prevent financial hardship and damage to the state economy” (fumo 2008, 14). a phase-in allows customers to “adjust to higher prices gradually by introducing increases over a number of years rather than all 52 where was the electricity? at once” (fitzpatrick 2008b). the senate democrats specifically proposed a mandatory phase-in of electric-power rates that would last five years and would not allow the utilities to recover the revenue lost during the rateraising period. the goal was to phase in the rates “without transferring additional cost to ratepayers” (fumo 2008, 14). alternatively, while the general assembly considered a state-mandated phase-in, the puc was allowing utilities to propose their own voluntary phase-in plans. such plans would allow utilities to defer recovery of revenue lost during the phase-in and collect interest on the deferred amount. the cost of the transition would thus be placed on the ratepayers rather than be absorbed by the utilities. the key question in this debate was who would pay for the phase-in of rates. the utilities and their supporters made clear that they would challenge any mandated phase-in that did not allow them to recover full payment for the electric power they supplied (see dagan 2008; fitzpatrick 2008a). for example, in testimony before the house consumer affairs committee (2008, 101), steve feld of firstenergy alluded to potential “constitutional issues” arising from a “failure to allow a full implementation of the power-procurement costs the utilities will incur [from a phase-in of rates].” although the utilities supported voluntary phase-in plans, some interest groups doubted their effectiveness. local representatives of the american association for retired persons (aarp) testified in support of the voluntary phase-in approach, but they regarded it as the minimal policy option. they spoke of the extra measures necessary to reach out to elderly citizens because “it is difficult for older people to understand [the] options” (general assembly 2009a, 26). effectively reaching vulnerable populations like the poor and elderly was challenging for voluntary phase-in plans run by utilities, for such people would not register for a voluntary program that would cost them more in the long run as utilities recovered deferred costs. as a compromise, philadelphia’s mayor michael nutter suggested a state-mandated rate phase-in allowing utilities to collect “the difference between the capped rate and the market rate . . . over several future years” (nutter 2008, 3). consumers would be required to pay interest to utilities for deferred costs, but the costs would be spread among all users. politically, nutter’s proposal appeared to be a good compromise between the competing demands of advocates of deregulation and supporters of rate mitigation. alas, changes in the economy and legislative attention rendered such a compromise moot. the window is shut at a legislative hearing in february 2008, representative carole rubley (r–chester/montgomery) called rate caps on electric power “one of 53 daniel j. mallinson the most important issues our residents throughout the state are going to be facing in the next few years” (general assembly 2008b, 75). not apparent at the time was that the substantial recession that had already begun in the united states would change the economics and politics of deregulating electric power in pennsylvania. the recession proved to be the release required to dissipate political pressure on the rate-cap issue and prevent policy punctuation. the deep global recession in 2008 and 2009 brought a subsequent drop in the price of electricity that was particularly stark given the record-setting heat of the summer of 2008. figure 2 below shows a plot of the weighted average wholesale price of electricity for pjm west (pennsylvania) between 2007 and 2010. a smoothed trend line shows price movement during that time. the ramp-up and subsequent collapse of the cost of electric power in the wholesale market during 2008 is clear. overall, the price recovered slightly before remaining relatively steady through the expiration of the remaining rate caps. figures 3 and 4 below illustrate how the recession and changes in the wholesale price of electricity affected retail prices in pennsylvania. both figures are drawn from spot estimates of rate increases for residential customers that were calculated by the puc for the utilities whose rate caps expired in 2010 and 2011.8 figure 3 shows the estimates for each provider of last resort. all the territories experienced downward pressure on their estimates as a result of the 2008 recession; peco customers even went from estimated double-digit increases to single-digit decreases in their rates. figure 2 pjm west (pennsylvania) weighted average prices, 2007-2010. 54 where was the electricity? allegheny power went from the highest estimated increases to the second lowest in less than a year. figure 4 shows the average rate increase for residential customers in pennsylvania, as calculated by the puc. these data clarify how expectations for increases in electricity prices changed across the commonwealth following the imposition of rate caps. the average increase dropped dramatically from a high of 73% in june 2008 to a range of 8%–20%. this rate drop reduced the fear of large increases typified by the oca’s spring 2008 projections. in fact, the puc encouraged utilities to speed up procurement of long-term contracts from the wholesale market to lock in favorable prices and thus reduce increases in electric-power rates following the imposition of rate caps (powelson 2009). as a result of all these factors, the dire situation that had drawn attention in 2007 and the spring of 2008 had changed substantially by the fall of 2008. while rate mitigation continued to receive media and political attention in the commonwealth in 2009 and 2010 (e.g., tom knox centered his 2010 gubernatorial campaign on the issue), most attention rapidly refocused on the economic downturn and its effects on state revenues and spending. the depth of the recession meant that harrisburg could not simply spend its rainy day fund to ride out the storm. indeed, deeper cuts were necessary across multiple budget years.9 the protracted state budget battle in 2009 is a good example of how the poor budgetary environment affected issue attention. the commonwealth figure 3 puc electric price estimates for residential customers in each service territory. 55 daniel j. mallinson faced a projected $3 billion budget deficit and a closely divided government with the senate in republican control, a slim democratic majority in the house, and lame-duck democrat ed rendell in the governor’s mansion. as a result, the commonwealth endured a 101-day budget impasse between governor rendell and senate republicans. as senator pat vance said in november 2009, the budget process “sucked the oxygen out of every issue” (seltzer 2009). little will was left to tackle major legislation like rate-cap mitigation. data from the pennsylvania policy agendas project prove that pennsylvania’s agenda shifted drastically with the recession.10 one of the datasets includes a random sample of daily press clippings from the governor’s press office that indicates what the press was covering and which issues the governor’s office deemed important on a given day. figure 5 below tracks attention to economic and energy issues from 2007 to 2010.11 figure 5 shows that even though attention to energy issues spiked a bit in 2007 and generally remained higher than attention to economic issues in fall 2007 and spring 2008, attention clearly shifted to economic issues as the recession became more severe in late 2008 and early 2009. the economy again becomes highly salient during the budget battle in 2009. these data show that attention to the economy far surpassed attention to rate-cap mitigation during its most important period. by january 2011 all the remaining rate caps had expired. although the commonwealth was unable to pass a comprehensive rate increase mitigation strategy, it did not stop working on the issue. in fact, figure 4 average puc electric price estimate, 2008-2010. 56 where was the electricity? the puc and relevant committees in the general assembly continued to process the issue jointly, even as the commonwealth was more attentive to economic issues. as can be expected from parallel processing, these actions were incremental. for example, the puc required utilities to provide individual education plans to consumers, it encouraged default suppliers to speed up their procurement of power contracts after rate caps were imposed so as to capitalize on lower electricity prices, and it approved voluntary rate phase-in plans proposed by the electric-power companies (see powelson 2009; public utility commission 2008b; 2008c; 2009a). these measures allowed the puc to work within its jurisdiction to enact incremental change. in addition, the general assembly passed two laws during the special session on energy that concerned the promotion of alternative energy in the commonwealth. finally, act 129 of 2008 required electricity utilities to create plans for reducing electricity consumption, thus reducing demand pressure within the market. all these policies were incremental and promote long-term reductions in rates through investment in new technology and reduction in demand. conclusion electric-power deregulation policy in the united states continues to provide political scientists with insight into significant theoretical concepts. figure 5 media attention to economic and energy issues as percent of total media coverage, 2007-2010. 57 daniel j. mallinson the history of deregulating electric power in pennsylvania presented here leads to important conclusions regarding the broader theories of punctuated equilibrium and the interaction between policy implementation and agenda setting through feedback loops. in terms of punctuated equilibrium theory, pennsylvania is a case where a reasonable expectation for policy punctuation was not realized. after the drastic rate increases experienced by pike county light & power and the subsequent dire projections by the oca for the remaining 85% of pennsylvania’s electricity consumers, harrisburg turned its attention to rate mitigation. with the special session on energy, the general assembly appeared to be in serial processing mode, and calls for action were coming from multiple actors. yet the rapid shift in public attention to the economy in the fall of 2008 deflated the apparent pressure for punctuation. this finding builds on the idea of berkman and reenock (2004) that punctuations do not always follow periods of stability where policy becomes misaligned with preferences. indeed, shifting environmental factors (e.g., the economy) that are beyond government control can deflate this pressure. this finding also supports aspects of kingdon’s (2003) garbage can model, such as policy windows, entrepreneurs, and focusing events. the window for governmental action opened when attention focused on the potential for double-digit price increases for electricity after the expiration of rate caps. meanwhile, policy entrepreneurs from inside and outside of government worked to draw attention to the four policy options described above. unfortunately, another major focusing event—the recession— drew governmental attention away from rate caps and slammed the policy window shut. yet that is not the entire story. the puc and committees of the general assembly were still able to parallel-process the policy and produce incremental changes to address rate-cap mitigation, thus confirming the argument of baumgartner and jones (2009) that models of large policy change like kingdon’s (2003), as well as models of incremental change (e.g., lindblom 1959), do not fully capture the dynamics of attention in american policymaking. finally, this case study of the implementation of electric-power deregulation in pennsylvania affirms the notion that policy is often evolutionary. indeed, a relationship exists between the final implementation stage of the process and the initial agenda-setting stage. in fact, deregulation of electricity rates in pennsylvania is particularly well suited as a case study of this phenomenon because there was a 15-year gap between the passage of the choice act and the expiration of the final rate caps. even though the early process of implementing retail electric-power choice was fairly smooth, misalignment between capped and market rates went largely undetected until rate caps expired for pike county light & power and pennsylvania power in 2006. the attention of state government was drawn 58 where was the electricity? to this potential implementation problem and deregulation found itself back on the agenda. through the incremental policy changes made by the puc and the general assembly, deregulation evolved somewhat to account for this growing problem. in a field that has most recently been celebrating macro-level theories that explain the aggregated actions and outcomes of our political system (e.g., erikson, mackuen, and stimson 2002), this article shows the continued usefulness of the much maligned case study for testing and building on broader theory. although these theories prove to be robust in explaining the norm, practical politics is not always normal. this case study reveals how policy punctuations do not always occur when expected by examining temporal variation in attention (see gerring 2004). by using a case study to determine how deregulation policy and issue attention in pennsylvania changed over time, this article augments broader theories of agenda setting, thereby demonstrating that case studies remain an important research method in political science. notes 1 for a more comprehensive explanation of the electric-power industry, see philipson and willis (2006). 2 pucha was a response to the collapse of large electric-utility holding companies during the great depression. before the depression, holding companies had absorbed many smaller electric utilities into much larger corporations. this development resulted in fiscal mismanagement and high rates for customers, as well as control by 19 holding companies of 90% of the electric-power providers in the united states. see energy information administration (1993) for a more detailed history of pucha. 3 the law was passed on june 12, 1995, as house bill 1509. 4 discrepancies in totals for april 1, 2003, and october 1, 2003, are due to addition errors in oca reports (see office of consumer advocate 1999–2011). 5 two clear outliers require additional explanation. the spike in competition on april 1, 2001, is the result of peco’s electric-power restructuring agreement. the plan required that 300,000 residential customers not already being served by a competitive supplier be randomly selected and switched to the new power company’s competitive discount service. customers could then either opt out of the program or choose an alternative supplier without any penalty. the new power company left pennsylvania in 2002 and peco absorbed its 180,000 remaining customers. the smaller jump, reflected in the oca report of january 1, 2004, is attributable to peco’s market share threshold program, which required peco to “turn over” a portion of its customers to a competitive supplier as a stipulation in the settlement of the merger between peco and unicom (henderson 2004, 3). this requirement provided a short-term bump in competition that returned to the normal rate of decline after customers switched back to peco. 6 fuel prices were not the only driver of increased production costs for electric generators. other factors included environmental regulations, construction costs for new generation, infrastructure investment, and political uncertainty regarding proposed regulations (see electric power generation association 2008). 7 quotation from senator robert j. mellow (d–lackawanna). 8 these are spot estimates rather than projections, meaning that had rate caps suddenly been removed in june 2008, for example, electric rates for allegheny power’s 59 daniel j. mallinson residential customers would have more than doubled. this does not mean that the puc was projecting in june 2008 that allegheny’s rates would double in 2011. for this reason, the puc’s spot estimates are useful for tracking how the retail price of electricity in each territory was changing between 2008 and 2011. see public utility commission 2009b; 2010). 9 see schlosstein (1975) on how state fiscal responses differ according to the depth of a recession. 10 the agendas project codes 20 topics. i used “fiscal and economic issues,” which is issue code 1, and “energy,” which is issue code 8. see the pennsylvania policy database user guide and codebook for more detail on the coding scheme and available data. http://www. temple.edu 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science review 98 (2): 341–54. henderson, joan, ed. 2004 “peco shopping gains while pennsylvania sleeps.” restructuring today. january 13. http://www.caem.org/content/documents/pdf /rtcsq.pdf. hirst, eric. 2001. “the california electricity crisis: lessons for other states.” july. http:// www.hks.harvard.edu/hepg/papers/hirstcalessons.pdf (accessed november 21, 2008). jones, bryan d., and frank baumgartner. 2005. the politics of attention. chicago: the university of chicago press. 61 daniel j. mallinson jones, bryan d., frank baumgartner, and james l. true. 1998. “policy punctuations: u.s. budget authority, 1947–1995.” the journal of politics 60 (1): 1–33. joskow, paul l. 1997. “restructuring, competition, and regulatory reform in the u.s. electricity sector.” the journal of economic perspectives 11 (3): 119–38. ka, sangjoon, and paul teske. 2002. “ideology and professionalism: electricity regulation and deregulation over time in the american states.” american politics research 30 (3): 323–43. kiesling, lynne. 2001. “getting electricity deregulation right: how other states and nations have avoided california’s mistakes.” policy study no. 281. april. http://hdl.handle. net/10207/5912 (accessed october 2008). kingdon, john w. 2003. agendas, alternatives, and public policies. new york, ny: longman. lesser, jonathan a. 2007. “the benefits of electric restructuring to pennsylvania consumers.” november. http://www.paenergynews.com/pdfs/benefits_111207. pdf (accessed november 21, 2008). levy, marc. 2008a. “ready? electric bills going up, just a question of how much.” centre daily times. may 11. http://www.rockthecapital.org/news/newsarchive / electricbillsgoi ngup.htm (accessed november 12, 2008). levy, marc. 2008b. “efforts to win pa utility rate cuts stall.” international business times. october 8. http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20081008/efforts–to–win–pa–utility–rate– cuts–stall.htm (accessed november 13, 2008). lindblom, charles e. 1959. “the science of ‘muddling through.’” public administration review 19 (2): 79–88. majone, g., and a. wildavsky. 1978. “implementation as evolution.” policy studies review 2: 103–17. munn v. illinois. 1877. 94 u.s. 113. munson, richard. 2005. from edison to enron. westport, ct: praeger. murphy, jan. 2009. “gov. ed rendell’s signature is the only thing standing in way of state budget.” patriot-news. october 9. http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf /2009/ 10/ gov_ed_rendells_signature_is_t.html (accessed october 15, 2009). nutter, michael a. 2008. written testimony. pennsylvania general assembly. house. environmental resources and energy committee. september 9. office of consumer advocate. commonwealth of pennsylvania. 1999–2011. “pennsylvania electric shopping statistics.” http://www.oca.state.pa.us/industry/electric/elecstats / electricstats.htm (accessed june 20, 2012). office of the governor. commonwealth of pennsylvania. 2001. “pennsylvania again ranked no. 1 in nation for electric deregulation.” press release. february 7. http://www.caem. org/content/documents/pdf/news/pa%20governor%20press%20release.pdf. philipson, lorrin, and h. lee willis. 2006. understanding electric utilities and deregulation. new york, ny: taylor & francis group. powelson, robert f. 2008. written testimony. pennsylvania general assembly. house. gop policy committee. july 30. http://pagoppolicy.com/uploads/7–30–08–testimony.pdf (accessed november 21, 2008). powelson, robert f. 2009. motion. docket no. p–00072342. march 12. http://www.puc.state. pa.us/general/pdf/commsm/powelson_motion_osa2027681_031209.pdf (accessed september 12, 2009). powelson, robert f. 2010. testimony. pennsylvania general assembly. house. gop policy committee. january 25. http://www.pagoppolicy.com/display/sitefiles/112 / hearings/ 01%2025%202010/ commissioner_powelson_testimony_1_25_10.pdf (accessed june 15, 2012). public utility commission. commonwealth of pennsylvania. 1995. investigation into electric power competition. august 4. 62 where was the electricity? public utility commission. commonwealth of pennsylvania. 2008a. “electric restructuring: the transition from rate caps to market-based pricing.” http://www.puc.state. pa.us/ general/consumer_ed/pdf/rate_caps.pdf (accessed november 12, 2008). public utility commission. commonwealth of pennsylvania. 2008b. “petition of peco energy for approval of its market rate transition phase-in program.” order. docket no. p–2008–2062741. march 12. http://www.puc.state.pa.us//pcdocs /1035837.rtf (accessed october 11, 2009). public utility commission. commonwealth of pennsylvania. 2008c. “petition of ppl electric utilities corporation for approval of a rate stabilization plan.” opinion and order. docket no. p–2008–2021776. august 7. http://www.puc.state.pa.us //pcdocs/ 1027077. pdf (accessed october 11, 2009). public utility commission. commonwealth of pennsylvania. 2009a. “joint petition of metropolitan edison company and pennsylvania electric company for approval of a voluntary prepayment plan.” order. docket no. p–2008–2066692. february 26. http:// www.puc.state.pa.us//pcdocs/1034100.rtf (accessed october 11, 2009). public utility commission. commonwealth of pennsylvania. 2009b. “puc electric price estimates.” october. http://www.puc.state.pa.us/electric/pdf/priceestimates /electric_ pr ice _ estimates101409.pdf (accessed june 20, 2012). public utility commission. commonwealth of pennsylvania. 2010. “puc electric price estimates.” april. http://www.puc.state.pa.us/electric/pdf/priceestimates/electric _ price_ estimates041610.pdf (accessed june 20, 2012). ridge, tom. 1996. “address by governor tom ridge.” pennsylvania electric association meeting. september 18. hershey, pa. courtesy of dr. nicolette parisi, ridge archivist. ridge, tom. 1997. “address by governor tom ridge.” eighth annual energy efficiency forum. the national press club. june 18. washington, dc. courtesy of dr. nicolette parisi, ridge archivist. rochefort, david a. and roger c. cobb, eds. 1994. the politics of problem definition. lawrence, ks: university of kansas press. sabatier, paul a. 1986. “top-down and bottom-up approaches to implementation research: a critical analysis and suggested synthesis.” journal of policy 6 (1): 21–48. sabatier, paul a. 1991. “toward better theories of the policy process.” ps: political science and politics 24 (2): 147–56. schlosstein, ralph. 1975. “state and local government finances during recession.” challenge 18 (3): 47–50. seltzer, rick. 2009. “pennsylvania budget delay ‘sucked the oxygen’ out of other issues, sen. pat vance says at carlisle-area speech.” the patriot news. november 5. http:// www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2009/11/state_budget _delay_ sucked_ the. html (accessed june 6, 2012). sulkin, tracy. 2005. issue politics in congress. new york, ny: cambridge university press. tierney, susan. 2008. “pennsylvania house bill no. 54. “why extending rate electricity rate caps ultimately would not protect consumers from rising electricity prices.” february. http://media.primezone.com/cache/9728/file /5240.pdf (accessed november 21, 2008). the limits of medicaid reform in pennsylvania commonwealth, volume 18, issue 2 (2016). © 2016 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/cjppp.v18i2.112. all rights reserved. the limits of medicaid reform in pennsylvania thinking regionally about access to insurance and health care under the affordable care act michele moser deegan muhlenberg college a. lanethea mathewsschultz muhlenberg college states’ varied decisions with respect to medicaid expansion under the affordable care act have drawn significant attention to questions about equity across states. missing from the conversation is consideration of the varied impact that reform will have within states. this article considers how lowincome pennsylvanians will fare under medicaid expansion. although medicaid reform has already expanded access to insurance to significant numbers of lowincome residents in the state, improvements in access to health care are mediated by preexisting regional inequalities in social determinants of health and by pennsylvania’s system of health governance. drawing on lessons gleaned from the literature on regionalism, and examples of success in states that have adopted regional approaches to health delivery, we offer a theoretical approach for thinking regionally in pennsylvania by building opportunities and capacities for crossjurisdictional approaches to health and health care access. the patient protection and affordable care act (public law 111–148 [123 stat. 119 (2010)] [aca]), is designed to make the health care system more effective and efficient, while expanding insurance coverage and preventative care to millions of americans. the aca alters the existing health care system by expanding the regulatory role of the federal and state 4 michele moser deegan and a. lanethea mathewsschultz governments and by requiring insurers and health care providers to restructure their personnel and services to accommodate the requirements of the law. not only is “obamacare” the most significant health care overhaul since 1965, when medicaid and medicare were instituted, but the aca also provides a unique window for examining the politics of implementation of federal policy reform across a diverse and fragmented nation. extending medicaid to uninsured lowincome citizens is a key mechanism of the aca. as originally conceived, starting in 2014, an expanded medicaid extends coverage to all individuals under 65 years of age with incomes up to 138% of the federal poverty level (kenney et al. 2012).1 the federal government is picking up 100% of the costs of new enrollees initially, reducing its contributions to these costs to 95% in 2016, and to 90% in 2020. the original aca required states to expand medicaid under threat of loss of all federal medicaid reimbursements for existing enrollees.2 in national federation of independent business et al. v sebelius, secretary of health and human services, et al. (2012), however, the supreme court held that, because congress’s tax and spend powers do not extend to compel the states to enact or administer federal regulatory programs, the mandated medicaid expansion was unconstitutional. the court’s decision, in short, made medicaid expansion, and therefore also full implementation of the aca, a matter of state choice. states’ varied decisions with respect to medicaid expansion have drawn significant attention to questions about equity across states (for example, jacobs and callaghan 2013). to be sure, since medicaid’s inception in 1965, states have been required to comply with federal criteria—determining, for example, who receives care and what funds are provided at what costs—as a condition of receiving federal medicaid funds. however, eligibility requirements, scope and breadth of services and benefits, and share of medicaid funding provided by the federal government vary widely across states. as of june 2015, 30 states (including dc) have opted into adopting the aca medicaid expansion, 19 have opted out, and 2 remain undetermined (kaiser commission 2012). medicaid reform is a divisive issue; all of the states opting out are republicanled (although 10 states had republican governors when they decided to expand) and no states in the deep south are expanding, making medicaid reform regionally concentrated. missing from the national conversation about aca outcomes is consideration of the varied impact that reform will have within states. states have diverse systems of health governance that are not inconsequential to health outcomes. this is especially true for lowincome residents who face the greatest obstacles not simply to obtaining health insurance, but to accessing preventive the limits of medicaid reform in pennsylvania 5 care, clinical care, and other health services. in this context, pennsylvania is uniquely situated for two reasons. first, it is one of only a handful of states that has a mixed, or hybrid, health governance structure the consequences of which remain uncertain alongside aca reforms.3 second, pennsylvania’s eligibility requirements for medicaid prior to obamacare were among the most restrictive in the nation, positioning the state to exponentially expand medicaid enrollees and thereby significantly alter the landscape of health within its borders. the state of pennsylvania has a vested interest in improving health for medicaid enrollees, as they accounted for close to a quarter of the state’s population prior to obamacare. politically speaking, pennsylvania is also somewhat unusual, having first opted out of the federal expansion in favor of a staterun demonstration project, only to quickly reverse course a few months later following a change in control of the governor’s office. how will lowincome pennsylvanians fare under aca medicaid reform? it is certain that hundreds of thousands of previously uninsured residents will gain health insurance, but consequences for health care and health outcomes among the population are less clear. in this article, we take stock of medicaid reform in pennsylvania with three goals in mind. first, after a brief historical review of the political context behind the state’s labored decision to expand medicaid, we provide a sketch of reform outcomes to date, focusing on lowincome residents’ access to health insurance. health insurance is a precursor to, not the equivalent of health. therefore, our second goal is to explicate barriers to health among lowincome pennsylvanians—barriers that include geographical variation in access points to primary health care. where lowincome residents can access health is determined in part by social and economic conditions of unemployment, poverty, transportation, and housing. it is also determined by the structure of health governance within the state and it is this latter variable that holds our primary interest. not only does the aca largely sidestep these interdependent determinants of health inequality, but by centralizing the administration of health, the governance structure of pennsylvania state health may exacerbate health inequalities. thus, our third goal is to suggest a theoretical framework for approaching health regionally in pennsylvania, one that is open to reforming administrative structures of health governance to focus on regional, crossjurisdictional approaches to public health and health care access. absent more comprehensive reform of the state’s public health system that considers regional variation in the conditions that facilitate health, medicaid reform will provide access to health insurance but, by itself, not necessarily better health outcomes for lowincome pennsylvanians. 6 michele moser deegan and a. lanethea mathewsschultz political prelude one of the 26 states party to national federation of independent businesses v sebelius, pennsylvania initially declined to participate in the federal medicaid expansion. following a delayed response to the court decision, pennsylvania republican governor tom corbett led his administration in developing a staterun alternative to the federal expansion to pay private insurers to cover the uninsured using newly available medicaid funds.4 after negotiating for over a year with the obama administration, the centers for medicare and medicaid services (cms) granted pennsylvania a federal waiver in august 2014, enabling the corbett administration to modify the state’s existing medicaid program to expand access to health insurance to adults with incomes up to 133% of the federal poverty level. corbett’s plan, healthy pennsylvania, could enroll up to 600,000 new citizens for health care coverage beginning january 1, 2015. healthy pennsylvania had two core components. first, it modified the state’s existing medicaid program through changed benefit plans, implementation of costsharing premiums, and establishment of incentives to encourage healthy behaviors. second, adults previously ineligible for medicaid but newly eligible under the aca’s expanded requirements could gain access to health insurance through private managed health plans, or private care option service delivery systems.5 among the most controversial of these changes were costsharing stipulations and eligibility requirements linking health insurance access to “employment related activities.” the demonstration project approved by cms permitted the state to charge monthly premiums for individuals with incomes up to 100% fpl during year two not to exceed 2% of household income (during the first year of the demonstration, no premiums were charged). individuals with incomes below 100% fpl could also be charged copayments in some circumstances. after year one of the demonstration project, individuals could reduce their cost sharing responsibilities by demonstrating healthy behaviors—including, for example, annual wellness exams and an established record of timely copayments.6 in its original formulation, healthy pennsylvania linked health insurance eligibility for ablebodied adults, ages 21–64, working fewer than 20 hours per week to proof of engagement in “employment related activities,” such as job training. political contingencies eventually forced corbett to weaken these conditions, such that the cms waiver stipulated that “health coverage provided by the medicaid program and this demonstration will not be affected by” the state’s efforts to encourage employment through incentives to join training and work related activities.7 early in his administration, corbett criticized the aca as “federal overreach” and referred to medicaid as a “broken system,” arguing “it would the limits of medicaid reform in pennsylvania 7 be financially unsustainable for the taxpayers,” to participate in the federal expansion (beeler 2013). at the same time, however, like many governors, corbett faced political and budgetary pressures alongside large populations of low-i ncome residents lacking health insurance. indeed, the corbett administration previously eliminated adultbasic, which had provided health insurance for low-i ncome working adults ineligible for medicaid, generating even greater need for affordable accessible health insurance. corbett’s “private option” allowed the state to capitalize on additional federal funding without compromising conservative principles. one journalist referred to this approach, shared by arkansas, iowa, and michigan, as “making medicaid more republican” (ramsay 2015). corbett claimed a political victory in securing “a plan that was created in pennsylvania for pennsylvania—a plan that would allow us to reform a financially unsustainable medicaid program and increase access to health care for eligible individuals through the private market,” (in wenner 2014) but the political realities were more complicated. the cms demonstration waiver imposed considerable restrictions on healthy pennsylvania, and ultimately, the state nudged its way toward expanding medicaid with the help of federal funds. corbett’s healthy pennsylvania was criticized both within and outside of the state and its brief life was both cause and consequence of the electoral politics of the 2014 gubernatorial elections. the second half of corbett’s first term saw declining public approval ratings (university of virginia’s larry sabato characterized corbett “the incumbent republican governor most likely to lose in 2014” [in larosa 2013]). corbett’s administration was flanked by seemingly endless bad news: drastic education cuts, teacher layoffs, controversial abortion legislation, poor job growth. his administration was also troubled by fallout from his own verbal gaffes and relative weak likeability compared to the democratic challenger, tom wolf. one of the most watched gubernatorial elections of 2014, the corbett campaign was heavily funded by the republican governors’ association; wolf, ceo of a family-owned building materials business and former state revenue secretary, donated $10 million to his own campaign and received support of major labor and teachers’ unions in the state. campaigning with a promise to revoke healthy pennsylvania in favor of expanding the state’s preexisting medicaid program with support from aca federal funds, wolf secured victory with 55% of the vote. in what was characterized as an otherwise republican friendly midterm election, corbett became the first incumbent governor in pennsylvania not elected to a second term (olson and esack 2014). despite his loss in november 2014, corbett’s administration began implementation of healthy pennsylvania in january 2015. at the time of wolf ’s 8 michele moser deegan and a. lanethea mathewsschultz inauguration that february, approximately 120,000 pennsylvanians had already enrolled. true to his campaign promises, wolf began transitioning the state away from the waiver program in early spring 2015, toward traditional aca medicaid. with an intended completion timeline of september 2015, wolf announced that all individuals enrolled in healthy pennsylvania or eligible for medicaid would be moved into the state’s preexisting medicaid managedcare plan, healthchoices. wolf reinstated benefit packages previously modified by the corbett administration, while costsharing premiums and healthy behavior incentives—core components in corbett’s original state demonstration project—were eliminated. medicaid expansion in pennsylvania perhaps the most significant anticipated effects of medicaid reform in pennsylvania (and elsewhere) will result from the expansion of coverage to previously uninsured and ineligible poor adults without dependent children (“childless adults” or “other adults”).8 medicaid reform will also enroll more working parents, previously ineligible under restrictive state requirements. according to the kaiser commission, before the aca, 33 states limited eligibility for working parents below 100% of the federal poverty level (fpl)—in 16 of those states, including pennsylvania, eligibility was restricted to parents earning less than 50% of the fpl. working parents with dependent children in pennsylvania were eligible for medicaid with incomes up to 99% of the federal poverty level; nondisabled adults without children were not eligible for medicaid at all.9 eligibility in pennsylvania now includes all adults, ages 21–64, with incomes up to 138% of the federal poverty level, equal to approximately $21,984 for a family of two in 2015. what does medicaid enrollment expansion in pennsylvania look like so far? in 2014, medicaid provided coverage for approximately 2.2 million pennsylvanians, including approximately 1.1 million adults and 1.1 million children. at the start of 2015, state officials estimated that 600,000 additional residents would be eligible for health insurance under an expanded program. between january and july 2015, the state’s medicaid program, healthchoices, added 440,000 new enrollees (including the approximately 120,000 residents who had been enrolled in corbett’s shortlived staterun alternative).10 as seen in figure 1, total medicaid enrollment in pennsylvania grew to more than 2.5 million by july 2015. among adults, medicaid enrollments increased by 18% within one year, jumping from 1,137,635 in june 2014 to 1,391,534 in june 2015. appendix a and figure 2 contain additional information about medicaid enrollment both before and after the aca expansion by county. appendix a the limits of medicaid reform in pennsylvania 9 also provides the best available information about the population of each county most likely to benefit from new medicaid requirements—adults living at or below 139% of the federal poverty level just before the medicaid expansion took effect.11 close to 1.4 million adults ages 18–64 were living under 139% fpl in 2013 across the state, and approximately 400,000 of those were note: “adult” in this figure refers to individuals ages 21 to 64. figure 1. statewide total and adult medicaid enrollment, april 2014 to july 2015. (pennsylvania department of human services.) figure 2. percentage change in medicaid enrollment ages 18–64 from 2014 to 2015. (u.s. census bureau, american community survey, 2008–2013; pennsylvania department of health; and pennsylvania association of community health centers, community health center directory, 2015.) 10 michele moser deegan and a. lanethea mathewsschultz uninsured. as is to be expected, the most populous counties in the state report the highest real numbers of poor uninsured adults, including most notably allegheny and philadelphia counties. but, counties vary in the proportion of poor uninsured adults relative to overall county populations. for example, pike county is a relatively small county with an overall population of 56,414 and a small population of poor adults, 5,000 individuals. close to 37% of pike county’s poor adults are uninsured, however, exceeding the statewide average by more than 8 percentage points. pennsylvania tracks and records total medicaid enrollments by county each month, but unfortunately, the state does not report the numbers of enrollees newly eligible after 2015. thus, monthly enrollment figures include previously enrolled medicaid recipients in addition to newly enrolled.12 while the data reported in appendix a and figure 2 are not perfect, they provide a partial window into changes at the county level and statewide variation as a result of medicaid expansion. the state as a whole experienced an almost 19% increase in adult medicaid enrollment between june 2014 and june 2015. increases within the counties range from a high of 28% in pike county to a low of 12% in montour county. in pike, as in other darker shaded counties in the east and southeastern regions, medicaid enrollment increased from 2014–2015. most of the counties with higher percentages of medicaid enrollees are those with a higher percentage of previously uninsured, suggesting that medicaid expansion is having the intended effect of expanding insurance to many poor individuals. because we say more about the lehigh valley region of pennsylvania below, it’s worth noting medicaid expansion in this region. combined, lehigh and northampton counties include about 630,000 residents and about 61,000 of these are adults living in poverty. in 2013, 19,737 adults living in poverty in this region lacked health insurance. lehigh county experienced a 22% increase in medicaid enrollments since 2015; in northampton, the increase has been about 24%. while these numbers are encouraging, as we explore further below, access to insurance is no guarantee of improved access to health care, particularly in a context defined by intrastate and interregional inequalities in both social determinants of health and availability of access points to care. thinking beyond insurance: health governance and regional health care inequality states’ preaca structures and processes for administering medicaid and other health related programs provide a critical context for considering implementation of medicaid reform under obamacare. indeed, the contours of the limits of medicaid reform in pennsylvania 11 medicaid prior to the aca were in many ways the result of states’ interests and financial incentives, which collectively helped propel the program’s evolution, decoupling it from welfare and relaxing eligibility rules in the 1980s (leading to exponential increase in enrollment) and transitioning (in a majority of states) to managed care plans in an effort to reduce costs in the 1990s. in 2010, medicaid expansion was the most politically palatable option for expanding health insurance coverage not only because it is less costly than other options, but also because it is a stateadministered program (brecher and rose 2013). the state of pennsylvania’s decision to adopt federal medicaid reform is likely the result of both shifting political fortunes (most notably a radical ideological change in the state executive office coupled with public opinion and pressure from health providers and insurers) and financial incentives (the state department of health estimates that cost savings will exceed $626 million in the first year and more than $645 million in the second year alone). the potential of medicaid expansion to succeed in increasing access to insurance and to health care for low-i ncome pennsylvanians will be shaped in part by the structure of health governance and the relationships between state and local governments. the states’ medicaid program, healthchoices (previously medical assistance) is administered through the office of medical assistance programs, an office within the state department of human services. eligibility and program requirements are administered through county assistance offices. medicaid recipients are enrolled in one of several managed care organizations (mcos) in the state, operating throughout five “zones” within the state. although the department of human services administers medicaid through its office of medical assistance programs, the department of health coordinates health resources in the state. pennsylvania is one of just a handful of states in the nation characterized by a “hybrid” governmental model, that is, it contains both independent local health agencies and state-run health offices (salinsky 2010).13 public health programs are overseen by the bureau of community health systems (bchs) in a complex network of district offices and state health centers organized into six health districts. as shown in figure 2, the state operates health centers in 61 of pennsylvania’s 67 counties. these are directly funded by the state and managed by state employees. state health centers provide health screenings, diagnoses and clinics to prevent communicable diseases, immunizations, chronic disease prevention, health and environmental education programs, and counseling. in addition to state-funded health centers, pennsylvania’s network of public health includes six county health departments in erie, allegheny, chester, bucks, montgomery, and philadelphia counties and four local health bureaus 12 michele moser deegan and a. lanethea mathewsschultz in the municipalities of york, wilkesbarre, bethlehem, and allentown. county health departments and municipal health bureaus are creations of pennsylvania act 315, the local health administration law, which allows (but does not require nor incentivize) local governments to create their own localized departments in return for greater control over decisions about available services and community partner collaborations. county health departments and municipal health bureaus are accountable for meeting state and federal public health provisions; they receive state funding but can also raise revenues through local taxation, service fees, and external grants. staffed by local government employees, county health departments and municipal health bureaus typically offer expanded public health services and work closely with community health providers. prior to obamacare, county health departments and municipal health bureaus proved especially important for providing preventive services and primary care to individuals ineligible for medicaid, and for providing services insufficiently covered by private providers. for example, the bethlehem health bureau provides free individual and group counseling on weight loss, diabetes, hypertension, high cholesterol, and smoking cessation for residents of bethlehem. similarly, the allentown health bureau is part of a community wide effort, healthy kids healthy allentown, which promotes good nutrition and physical activity programs for children under 18 years of age. of course, government organizations are not the only entities in public health. private and nonprofit organizations are critical partners in the delivery of health care and the extension of services to lowincome populations. most significant for our purposes, community health centers, including those designated as federally qualified health centers (fqhcs) and rural health clinics (rhcs), are a primary source of care and preventive services for medicaid enrollees and the uninsured and, with increased federal funding provided through the aca, will continue to serve as a significant source of primary care for low-i ncome populations. fqhcs and rchs are nonprofit organizations, supported by federal and state funds that provide preventive primary health services under section 330 of the public health service act. they may provide services such as primary medical, dental, and behavioral health care regardless of a patient’s ability to pay. as shown in figure 2, there are currently over 260 sites in pennsylvania located in 45 of pennsylvania’s 67 counties, serving approximately 700,000 individuals (community health centers, 2015). in addition to these organizations, there has been an increase in the number of private care centers, such as patient first, as well as dropin care centers run by area hospitals. while the apparent influx of new entities is encouraging, in most cases, this patchwork health care delivery system the limits of medicaid reform in pennsylvania 13 continues to lack comprehensive coverage for hospitalization, longterm care, and emergency care as well as dental care, eye and vision care, and mental health services. likewise, little is known about the extent to which privatesector health clinics are helping to fill delivery gaps, especially for the medicaid population. in the best case scenario, pennsylvanians still lacking health insurance or without easy access to primary care through a private provider can receive primary care through fqhcs or a similar organization, reducing the risk and prevalence of preventable diseases, which in turn will reduce the cost of care as individuals will be treated earlier and require less hospitalization. however, this assumes that fqhcs, or their equivalent, are located in areas accessible to these individuals. returning to figure 2, most fqhcs and rhcs are concentrated in the urban core of philadelphia and in far western pennsylvania, even though there have been larger increases in medicaid enrollment in southcentral and northeastern counties. figure 3 provides complementary information about the geographic distribution of the ratio of the population to primary care physicians using the robert wood johnson foundation’s county health rankings and roadmap data (www.countyhealthrankings.org). these figure 3. primary care physician ratio by county. (robert wood johnson foundation county health rankings and ratings; pennsylvania department of health; and pennsylvania association of community health centers.) 14 michele moser deegan and a. lanethea mathewsschultz data include primary care physicians specializing in medicine, family medicine, internal medicine, or pediatrics and provide a measure of the availability of health care and access to providers. as shown, many counties with higher ratios of population to primary care physicians (those shaded darker on figure 3), also have few if any fqhc/rhcs, potentially forcing residents to forgo preventive care, or to seek out hospital emergency rooms for non emergent care. comparing figures 2 and 3 further emphasizes the need to consider more access to preventative health care for low-i ncome residents. for example, counties such as pike, perry, monroe, and bedford, which lack a sufficient number of physicians to serve the overall county population, also lack federally assisted health centers for low-i ncome residents and have seen higher increases in medicaid enrollment. clearly, there is a need to consider a better way to organize health services for lowincome individuals living in these regions. while these figures suggest that the state’s hybrid system of health governance promotes horizontal equity in some respects—nearly every county has a state-run health center, for example—it is clear that there is considerable variation in the extent of need among low-i ncome residents across counties and in structural and environmental factors across the state. in short, lowincome pennsylvanians faced varied access to primary health care. as suggested above, the increase in insured adults as a result of medicaid expansion could lead to greater health inequality, as those lacking access to health services, due to a limited number of physicians or facilities, maintain their current level of health while those living in areas with more options for health care have greater access. additionally, previously insured individuals may face difficulties scheduling health care visits due to the increase in demand and limited supply of health care workers. the remainder of our article suggests a theoretical way of thinking regionally to derive the greatest benefit from the aca’s twin promise of improving health insurance and health care for lowincome americans. seeking regional solutions to health challenges in pennsylvania the ultimate success of the aca will depend in large part on the willingness and ability of states, health insurers, and health care providers to transform the existing health care system. because federally designed medicaid reform relies on states to run and implement the expansion, it is inherently linked to a preexisting landscape of health inequalities, socioeconomic disparities, inequalities in the social determinants of health, and varied obstacles to care. the limits of medicaid reform in pennsylvania 15 in this context, location matters, as health is shaped by many factors that lie outside the boundaries of health care, including access to employment opportunities, adequate transportation, environmental issues such as air and water quality, and racial equity. literature in the field of regionalism, for example, suggests that neighborhood access to healthy food, concentrations of poverty within geographic regions, and resource disparities within larger regional contexts are all factors that affect health outcomes at both individual and community levels (e.g., hutson et al. 2012; lynch et al. 1998). moreover, individuals rely on their local communities for health care; therefore, measurement of the aca’s success must include consideration of the equity, accessibility, and affordability of services within more localized areas. a regional boundary is defined by where people reside, travel, work, shop, and play (hamilton 2014; miller 2002). the recognition that municipalities within a region are interdependent is now commonplace within research and practitioner communities (dreier et al. 2004; hamilton 2014; ledebur and barnes, 1993; orefield 2002; pastor et al., 2000; rusk 2003; savitch et al. 1993; savitch and vogel 2000; swanstrom et al. 2002). while there is debate about the extent and direction of this interdependency, a regional perspective is critical for understanding social disparities and economic growth at the local government level. regions present unique governing challenges because they typically include multiple local governments and often lack static legal boundaries. the subject of health equity itself is well traversed—scholars and practitioners have long drawn attention to issues related to population health: racial and ethnic disparities in health and health care, state and local policy efforts to alleviate health disparities; the interconnectedness of residential segregation, lack of access to health care, environmental stressors (such as violence), and community infrastructure (e.g., institute of medicine 2011; kirby and kaneda 2005; lynch et al. 1998; schulz et al. 2002). these findings are increasingly considered in the context of regionalism; indeed a recent policy link report suggests, “much of the innovative work around health and regional equity is occurring at the intersection between health and other areas such as transportation, housing, and economic opportunity” (2002, 23). past research has linked racebased residential segregation and socioeconomic status to the social and material resources that promote health and limit disease (schulz et al. 2002). most critically for our purposes, studies of healthcare utilization suggest that an individual’s decision to access primary health care services depends upon spatial considerations, including regional availability and regional accessibility and aspatial factors such as income, race, ethnicity, education level, or sex (wang and luo 2005). of particular importance, researchers estimate that 16 michele moser deegan and a. lanethea mathewsschultz individuals are more likely to access services within a 15mile radius or not exceeding a 30minute barrier (e.g., luo 2004; wang and minor 2002). while medicaid expansion has already significantly expanded access to health insurance for more than 400,000 lowincome pennsylvanians, far surpassing the numbers of individuals who have enrolled in individual insurance plans through the federal marketplace, our concern is the next step, how to ensure access to preventive and primary care for lowincome individuals with or without health insurance. translating gains in health insurance into healthier residents and greater health equity across the state will require coordinated regional strategies. these strategies include changing state health governance structures to establish a more decentralized public health system, one that allows for regionalized implementation and state support for new collaborative regional health care systems. for example, recent research suggests that centralized, staterun health governance systems—such as the system characterizing health governance in pennsylvania—are associated with the lowest health outcome measures on several dimensions of health, including adult smoking, low birth weight, teen births, and preventative screenings for breast cancer and diabetes (hays et al. 2014). one of the benefits of the u.s. system of federalism is the ability to learn from statelevel variation in public health delivery systems. here, we briefly draw on minnesota and massachusetts, two states consistently ranked among the healthiest in the nation by the united healthcare foundation and association of state and territorial health officials. like pennsylvania, both states have histories rooted in strong local governance. unlike pennsylvania, both minnesota and massachusetts have integrated regional approaches to public health through statewide planning that emphasizes devolving accountability and health delivery planning to local governments with state-level oversight and support. regional public health in minnesota in minnesota, the community health services system has been in place since 1976, when the state passed the community health services act (minn. stat. § 145a), now called the local public health act. unlike pennsylvania’s act 315, which permits, but does not require, counties and municipalities to create health departments, the state of minnesota designates community health boards (chbs) as the legal governing authorities for local public health. chbs can be multicounty, singlecounty, or citybased but must serve a minimum population equal to 30,000 people (minnesota department of health 2016). chbs are better positioned to tailor health services to fit the needs of mailto:minn.states.@154a mailto:minn.states.@154a the limits of medicaid reform in pennsylvania 17 a smaller population than is possible with a state-governed structure. funding for chbs is provided through a mix of federal, state, and local funding as well as fees and reimbursements. noncategorical state funding provides the base funding for the chbs in addition to targeted funding to address statelevel public and community health priorities (mays and frauendienst 2014). a recent report measuring performance indicators on chbs suggests that many work with local partners to increase health education programming, particularly in school settings. also, most engage in activities to promote healthy behaviors, particularly nutrition and physical activity (minnesota department of health 2014). other program areas include maternal and child health, infectious disease prevention, and promotion of environmental health, such as radon testing. one of the challenges faced by minnesota chbs is funding. even though the state provides significant governmental transfers, many chbs struggle to provide sufficient local tax and nontax revenue (minnesota department of health 2015). changes in population demographics, including the decline of rural populations, are another concern. in spite of these challenges, evidence suggests that there is increasing ability for chbs to meet state performance standards and the state is encouraging all chbs to apply for public health department accreditation, which would provide additional technical support and research to improve service delivery. minnesota’s chbs provide decentralized health centers with strong support from the state, providing residents more targeted services and programming to meet the unique needs of each region. regional public health in massachusetts if states such as minnesota provide empirical support that legislative and administrative decentralization may help improve community health, massachusetts provides an example of the benefits of engaging public and private services providers in regionalizing public health. massachusetts is both one of the healthiest states in the nation and characterized by one of the most decentralized systems of health. historically, each municipality was responsible for providing public health services and acted as the primary funder for these services. in fact, until 2006, state law did not provide for the opportunity for any direct funding for public health. with over 300 communities and varying degrees of financial capacity, state leaders recognized that the existing system was no longer sustainable and that a more centralized approach, with greater state-level engagement, was needed to ensure equitable access to care for all citizens. 18 michele moser deegan and a. lanethea mathewsschultz following on the heels of the landmark massachusetts health reform that was the precursor to the aca, local health department and state officials prepared a report recommending several improvements to the public health system (hyde and tovar 2006). these recommendations, along with further study of the problems by public health leaders, led to the creation of several additional policy changes. first, in december 2006 the state launched the massachusetts public health regionalization project with the goal of establishing consortiums of local health departments across multijurisdictional boundaries to provide a “consistent standard of care and equal level of services.” (massachusetts public health regionalization project 2016). six regional consortiums received public health district incentive grants from the state, supported by a grant from the u.s. center for disease control. these consortiums bring together local health boards and community health care provides to create regional health improvement plans and coordinate services. for example, the central massachusetts regional health alliance, comprising seven local health boards and over 90 community organizations and hospitals, developed a strategic plan that includes a focus on health equity and health disparities (central massachusetts regional public health alliance 2014). second, to further enable and encourage regionalization, in 2008 state policy makers revised chapter 529, an act relative to public health reorganization, which removed barriers to regionalization. this law provides the legal basis for state funding for public health but retains legislative prerogative for development of the funding formula and subsequent annual funding. third, in 2013, massachusetts created the office of local and regional health, the hub for partnerships between the state department of health and human services and regional consortiums. this office is similar in scope to pennsylvania’s bureau of community health systems. the evolution of the expansion of state efforts to support the new regional collaborative and local health boards is still relatively new. however, research by the institute of community health points to early positive outcomes in the district incentive grant program and regional health consortium (hays et al. 2014). opportunities for regionalizing public health in pennsylvania our goal here is not to suggest a one size fits all approach. to be sure, massachusetts and minnesota are significantly different both from each other and from pennsylvania culturally, politically, geographically, and economically. rather, our goal is to draw attention to the experiences in minnesota the limits of medicaid reform in pennsylvania 19 and massachusetts, and to emergent research on public health governance, to suggest that thinking regionally offers innovative routes for improving health care and population health outcomes. pennsylvania is well positioned to encourage greater decentralization of public health by revising existing legislation to encourage a regionally driven public health system. for example, policymakers could consider revising act 315 to provide greater incentives for counties and municipalities to create local health departments and multijurisdictional health departments that include two or more counties as a regional economic entity. regional health departments are beneficial for several reasons. first, by design, they would be attuned and responsive to residents within identified geographies, including atrisk populations in cities and suburbs. currently operating health bureaus offer more expanded clinical services, environmental health, and targeted community education opportunities to residents than do state-run health centers and are more adaptable to local community issues. regional health departments, we expect, would provide the same attention to community needs. second, regional health departments would increase community engagement in public health. act 315 requires that county commissioners appoint five residents within a health department’s geographic boundary to serve on a board of health, ensuring greater localized autonomy over public health provisions than is current practice in most counties in the state. the third benefit is that localized health departments would provide opportunities for greater coordination of regional health services including, for example, county departments of human services in the areas of mental health, aging, and children and youth services. regional health departments would also have greater ability to coordinate services directly with nonprofit and private providers to improve regional health as shown through the examples of chbs and regional health departments in massachusetts. if regionalizing pennsylvania’s approach to health is a good idea, and we think it is, there are important funding, cost, and political considerations (we say more on this below). a large question, in light of current state budget woes, is funding. deeper consideration of the cost of implementation is necessary; however one assumption is that expenditures for state health centers would be shifted from the current state health centers, which would no longer be needed, to the new regional entities. further funding would be raised through local sources, federal grants, and service provision. an even more politically feasible and practical step toward thinking regionally is to encourage growth and proliferation of fqhc/rhcs and similar organizations providing community-level primary care. fqhc/rhcs receive funding from the health resources and services administration of 20 michele moser deegan and a. lanethea mathewsschultz the u.s. department of health and human services. maximizing the potential for federal funding by providing additional state funds to organizations operating within highneed locations would serve those most in need of affordable health services. combined, these efforts would provide a better foundation for reducing health disparities by recognizing the importance of regional health planning that includes collaboration with neighboring government entities as well as nonprofit and private-sector providers. regional case study of the lehigh valley figure 4 provides an example for thinking regionally in the way that we imagine by examining the spatial relationships of public health offices and fqhcs in the lehigh valley region of pennsylvania. the lehigh valley region comprises lehigh and northampton counties, 62 municipalities, and 17 school districts. the valley is home to approximately 600,000 residents, with median income ranging from $54,923 to $60,097. approximately 14% of lehigh figure 4. percentage uninsured up to 138 fpl by census tract, lehigh and northampton counties. (u.s. census bureau, american community survey, 2008–2013; pennsylvania department of health; and pennsylvania association of community health centers.). the limits of medicaid reform in pennsylvania 21 county lives at 100 fpl; in northampton, the poverty rate is just under 10%. lehigh county is home to allentown, the third largest city in the commonwealth, with a poverty rate of 28%. as shown in figure 4, the state operates a health center in each county, while the cities of allentown and bethlehem have their own health bureaus. there is also an fqhc located in allentown. given allentown’s relatively high poverty rate, it is an obvious place to locate services designed to provide affordable health care. nonetheless, closer examination of census tracts in the lehigh valley as a whole suggests there are other places in the region that would benefit from more accessible health care. following governor wolf ’s expansion of traditional medicaid, we would expect most areas on figure 4 to show fewer uninsured over time, as more individuals register for healthchoices in the coming years. indeed, recall our discussion above and appendix a, which shows that lehigh and northampton exceed the statewide average rate of change in medicaid enrollments in the year stretching from june 2014 to june 2015. lehigh’s medicaid enrollment increased by about 22%; in northampton, the increase was almost 24%. we expect that some of these individuals will now seek more frequent primary and preventative care. however, like many regions in the state, the lehigh valley is characterized by barriers to health care and improved health outcomes that cannot be overcome simply through the extension of health insurance. community health needs assessments in the region conducted in compliance with the requirements of the affordable care act have demonstrated, for example, that transportation, housing, employment, and cultural and language barriers are important factors explaining disparities in health outcomes and access to preventive health services (mathews 2012; mathews schultz and brill 2015). further, the needs of residents living in the urban core areas of the lehigh valley differ from those living in the suburban and rural outskirts of the region; access (particularly for residents lacking transportation) is particularly significant in the rural areas. communities in the northern and southern tiers of the lehigh valley, for example, lack access to the region’s bus system, the only form of public transportation. interestingly, policy and county leaders in the lehigh valley previously took steps toward creating a bicounty health department in the region. lessons from this experience reveal both the appeal of thinking regionally about health and the practical and political barriers to implementing regionalism without clear incentives and support from state (and possible) federal institutions. in 2010, several organizations within the health care community in lehigh and northampton counties, including the two municipal health bureaus, two rivers health foundation, and the local hospitals, proposed the creation of a new bureau that would replace the existing allentown and 22 michele moser deegan and a. lanethea mathewsschultz bethlehem health bureaus. that proposal was for a larger multicounty entity that would offer expanded services and new locations in easton, bangor, and slatington, three areas with a large number of low-i ncome residents that tend to be underserved by the existing urban core health bureaus. unfortunately, despite empirical evidence that a bicounty health department would better serve the health needs of the region’s lowincome population, these efforts failed to gain enough political support among either lehigh or northampton county political elites and elected leaders who had to approve its creation. the main sticking point for the county commissioners and opponents of the regional health department stemmed from the proposed expectation that each county and the three cities would contribute resources to operate the new bureau. in the midst of the recession, and with tea party republicans on both the lehigh and northampton county councils opposed to increasing the size of government, this requirement was not politically viable. it is likely that opposition to regional health bureaus will continue without state-level reforms to decentralize public health similar to those in minnesota and massachusetts and incentives to make it easier for regions to expand autonomy and accountability. moving forward after obamacare: tentative conclusions and new questions it is certain that large numbers of lowincome previously uninsured pennsylvanians will gain health insurance as a result of the state’s medicaid expansion. early indications suggest that, in the first half of 2015, a far greater number of residents enrolled in healthchoices—the newly designed and named state run medicaid program—than enrolled in the private health marketplace created under obamacare. it is difficult to overstate the significance of medicaid in extending health insurance to lowincome residents in the state. more than 400,000 pennsylvania residents are newly insured as a result of the medicaid expansion. with this backdrop, our primary goal in this article was to suggest that the preexisting landscape of health inequalities in access to care across different regions of the state, coupled with the centralized hybrid structure of health governance, will mediate and potentially limit health outcomes among the newly insured population. better and more health insurance will not necessarily lead to better health care or improved health outcomes. access to preventive health services and primary care physicians is not distributed equitably across the state; those newly insured and those who remain uninsured the limits of medicaid reform in pennsylvania 23 will have differential access to health care depending to large degree on where they live. emergent literature on regionalism and public health, coupled with experiences of innovative regional approaches in states such as minnesota and massachusetts, suggest that there are tangible ways pennsylvania (and other states) can think regionally about how to best address inequalities in access to health. many academics, research institutions (see, for example, the institute for public policy and economic development), and practitioners advocate statewide regionalization for many policy areas beyond health. for example, these areas include police, fire, public education, water and wastewater, economic development, transportation, and planning. statewide obstacles similar to those found in the lehigh valley have frustrated these efforts to regionalize while, ironically, the fragmentation of pennsylvania’s local governments further contributes to service delivery challenges and fiscal stress. nonetheless, there has been limited success in regionalization that gives us reason for optimism. since 1971, for instance, 29 regional intermediate units (ius), multijurisdictional entities, have provided educational services and instruction. ius operate as a statewide network to provide services to school districts and other educational entities that would not be provided if each district were expected to provide its own services; while ius cannot raise their own tax revenues, they do charge fees for service and receive state and local funding (joint state government commission 1997). there are other examples of successful regionalization in the state; there are at least 35 regional police departments across 125 municipalities, and interstate and intrastate regional planning commissions are now commonplace throughout the northeast. as we have shown throughout this article, pennsylvania’s health system requires an overhaul. pennsylvania continues to rank below national averages on measures of state population health. the kaiser commission recently reported that individuals living in rural areas of the state are most likely to face the greatest obstacles in accessing health care and in obtaining improved health outcomes. a state health care innovation plan awarded to pennsylvania in 2013 has begun the development of telemedicine initiatives to help address some of these disparities (kaiser commission on medicaid and the uninsured 2016). while a worthy goal, the above suggests that without a more regionalized strategic focus on services and service access barriers, many lowincome pennsylvanians will continue to lack access to health care and improved health, even if newly insured as a result of the aca medicaid expansion. 24 a xi d n p p e a ta bl e a .1 . p op ul at io n, u ni ns ur ed , an d m ed ic ai d e nr ol le es p re an d p os t m ed ic ai d e xp an si on   to ta l p op ul at io n (2 0 1 3 ) p op ul at io n 1 8 –6 4 u nd er 1 3 8 f p l (2 0 1 3 ) n um be r 1 8 –6 4 y ea rs o ld u nd er 1 3 8 f p l u ni ns ur ed (2 0 1 3 ) p er ce nt ag e p op ul at io n 1 8 –6 4 un de r 1 3 8 f p l u ni ns ur ed ju ne 2 0 1 4 a du lt m ed ic ai d e nr ol le es ju ne 2 0 1 5 a du lt m ed ic ai d e nr ol le es p er ce nt ag e c ha ng e in a du lt m ed ic ai d e nr ol le es ju ne 2 0 1 4 – ju ne 2 0 1 5 s ta te t o ta l 1 2 ,3 1 1 ,6 4 4 1 ,3 8 0 ,0 8 2 3 9 9 ,0 8 6 2 8 .9 2 % 1 ,1 2 6 ,3 9 6 1 ,3 8 3 ,6 7 5 1 8 .6 % a da m s 9 6 ,9 2 5 7 ,4 9 6 2 ,9 2 0 3 8 .9 5 % 5 ,0 0 1 6 ,7 2 1 2 5 .6 % a lle gh en y 1 ,1 9 3 ,2 8 5 1 3 2 ,0 8 5 3 3 ,7 8 3 2 5 .5 8 % 1 0 2 ,1 7 6 1 2 2 ,4 9 6 1 6 .6 % a rm st ro ng 6 7 ,7 9 4 7 ,6 2 7 2 ,2 4 0 2 9 .3 7 % 7 ,2 4 2 8 ,5 7 9 1 5 .6 % b ea ve r 1 6 7 ,2 3 4 1 6 ,2 5 7 3 ,7 4 1 2 3 .0 1 % 1 5 ,7 3 4 1 8 ,8 9 8 1 6 .7 % b ed fo rd 4 8 ,6 4 6 5 ,3 5 5 1 ,6 5 6 3 0 .9 2 % 4 ,8 2 3 6 ,0 7 4 2 0 .6 % b er ks 3 9 8 ,8 9 4 4 3 ,6 7 4 1 4 ,4 8 2 3 3 .1 6 % 3 4 ,5 9 4 4 2 ,2 2 2 1 8 .1 % b la ir 1 2 3 ,6 0 7 1 5 ,2 7 4 3 ,6 5 9 2 3 .9 6 % 1 4 ,3 4 3 1 7 ,3 1 3 1 7 .2 % b ra df or d 6 1 ,5 5 5 7 ,2 6 8 2 ,2 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4 .7 % c um be rl an d 2 2 3 ,2 6 2 1 6 ,9 4 1 4 ,7 5 1 2 8 .0 4 % 1 0 ,9 8 4 1 4 ,3 4 9 2 3 .5 % d au ph in 2 6 2 ,8 7 8 2 8 ,3 7 0 8 ,5 6 0 3 0 .1 7 % 2 2 ,0 9 3 2 9 ,6 4 8 2 5 .5 % d el aw ar e 5 3 8 ,1 2 8 4 5 ,1 8 0 1 3 ,4 2 1 2 9 .7 1 % 4 2 ,2 1 6 4 9 ,1 2 7 1 4 .1 % e lk 3 1 ,4 1 1 2 ,5 2 8 5 1 7 2 0 .4 5 % 2 ,7 2 8 3 ,1 3 3 1 2 .9 % e ri e 2 6 8 ,0 4 4 3 7 ,0 0 3 9 ,1 6 1 2 4 .7 6 % 3 1 ,3 8 7 3 8 ,4 6 9 1 8 .4 % fa ye tt e 1 3 2 ,1 3 8 2 0 ,2 8 6 6 ,1 0 1 3 0 .0 7 % 2 0 ,1 9 9 2 3 ,7 8 5 1 5 .1 % fo re st 4 ,8 0 3 6 9 0 2 2 5 3 2 .6 1 % 5 7 4 7 1 5 1 9 .7 % fr an kl in 1 4 7 ,6 4 0 1 3 ,3 5 4 5 ,3 2 0 3 9 .8 4 % 9 ,3 3 3 1 2 ,3 9 6 2 4 .7 % fu lt on 1 4 ,6 4 1 1 ,5 1 9 4 5 8 3 0 .1 5 % 1 ,3 4 7 1 ,6 3 4 1 7 .6 % g re en e 3 4 ,0 8 9 4 ,4 7 2 1 ,1 9 5 2 6 .7 2 % 4 ,4 2 9 5 ,1 2 2 1 3 .5 % h un ti ng do n 4 0 ,6 8 8 4 ,5 7 9 1 ,1 9 6 2 6 .1 2 % 4 ,3 2 2 5 ,1 3 1 1 5 .8 % in di an a 8 3 ,2 1 9 1 3 ,9 0 3 3 ,4 9 6 2 5 .1 5 % 7 ,4 1 5 9 ,4 3 3 2 1 .4 % je ff er so n 4 4 ,1 7 4 5 ,5 3 5 1 ,5 8 5 2 8 .6 4 % 5 ,1 2 8 5 ,9 8 4 1 4 .3 % ju ni at a 2 4 ,3 5 9 2 ,6 5 9 9 1 0 3 4 .2 2 % 1 ,8 2 8 2 ,1 6 5 1 5 .6 % 25 a p p e n d ix a ta bl e a .1 . p op ul at io n, u ni ns ur ed , an d m ed ic ai d e nr ol le es p re an d p os t m ed ic ai d e xp an si on   to ta l p op ul at io n (2 0 1 3 ) p op ul at io n 1 8 –6 4 u nd er 1 3 8 f p l (2 0 1 3 ) n um be r 1 8 –6 4 y ea rs o ld u nd er 1 3 8 f p l u ni ns ur ed (2 0 1 3 ) p er ce nt ag e p op ul at io n 1 8 –6 4 un de r 1 3 8 f p l u ni ns ur ed ju ne 2 0 1 4 a du lt m ed ic ai d e nr ol le es ju ne 2 0 1 5 a du lt m ed ic ai d e nr ol le es p er ce nt ag e c ha ng e in a du lt m ed ic ai d e nr ol le es ju ne 2 0 1 4 – ju ne 2 0 1 5 s ta te t o ta l 1 2 ,3 1 1 ,6 4 4 1 ,3 8 0 ,0 8 2 3 9 9 ,0 8 6 2 8 .9 2 % 1 ,1 2 6 ,3 9 6 1 ,3 8 3 ,6 7 5 1 8 .6 % a da m s 9 6 ,9 2 5 7 ,4 9 6 2 ,9 2 0 3 8 .9 5 % 5 ,0 0 1 6 ,7 2 1 2 5 .6 % a lle gh en y 1 ,1 9 3 ,2 8 5 1 3 2 ,0 8 5 3 3 ,7 8 3 2 5 .5 8 % 1 0 2 ,1 7 6 1 2 2 ,4 9 6 1 6 .6 % a rm st ro ng 6 7 ,7 9 4 7 ,6 2 7 2 ,2 4 0 2 9 .3 7 % 7 ,2 4 2 8 ,5 7 9 1 5 .6 % b ea ve r 1 6 7 ,2 3 4 1 6 ,2 5 7 3 ,7 4 1 2 3 .0 1 % 1 5 ,7 3 4 1 8 ,8 9 8 1 6 .7 % b ed fo rd 4 8 ,6 4 6 5 ,3 5 5 1 ,6 5 6 3 0 .9 2 % 4 ,8 2 3 6 ,0 7 4 2 0 .6 % b er ks 3 9 8 ,8 9 4 4 3 ,6 7 4 1 4 ,4 8 2 3 3 .1 6 % 3 4 ,5 9 4 4 2 ,2 2 2 1 8 .1 % b la ir 1 2 3 ,6 0 7 1 5 ,2 7 4 3 ,6 5 9 2 3 .9 6 % 1 4 ,3 4 3 1 7 ,3 1 3 1 7 .2 % b ra df or d 6 1 ,5 5 5 7 ,2 6 8 2 ,2 4 6 3 0 .9 0 % 5 ,7 4 5 6 ,7 6 9 1 5 .1 % b uc ks 6 1 7 ,1 6 1 3 0 ,3 6 6 9 ,2 3 4 3 0 .4 1 % 2 8 ,2 0 6 3 5 ,9 9 2 2 1 .6 % b ut le r 1 7 9 ,4 0 1 1 5 ,3 1 1 4 ,3 1 0 2 8 .1 5 % 1 0 ,8 6 2 1 3 ,3 2 4 1 8 .5 % c am br ia 1 3 4 ,4 9 5 1 6 ,0 1 8 4 ,5 7 9 2 8 .5 9 % 1 5 ,1 2 5 1 8 ,0 9 5 1 6 .4 % c am er on 4 ,9 2 3 4 9 4 1 1 8 2 3 .8 9 % 6 4 0 7 3 8 1 3 .3 % c ar bo n 6 4 ,0 7 4 6 ,8 7 6 1 ,9 7 6 2 8 .7 4 % 4 ,9 6 0 6 ,3 1 2 2 1 .4 % c en tr e 1 3 7 ,1 1 0 2 8 ,2 5 4 3 ,9 0 4 1 3 .8 2 % 6 ,3 4 7 7 ,9 8 7 2 0 .5 % c he st er 4 9 0 ,1 9 9 2 9 ,6 6 2 1 0 ,1 5 0 3 4 .2 2 % 1 6 ,9 4 5 2 2 ,4 1 5 2 4 .4 % c la ri on 3 7 ,8 5 5 5 ,9 5 3 1 ,3 4 1 2 2 .5 3 % 3 ,8 6 7 4 ,5 2 0 1 4 .4 % c le ar fi el d 7 6 ,4 6 3 9 ,9 5 3 3 ,0 5 0 3 0 .6 4 % 9 ,6 6 6 1 1 ,4 4 8 1 5 .6 % c lin to n 3 6 ,7 6 9 5 ,2 1 8 9 8 9 1 8 .9 5 % 3 ,9 5 3 4 ,6 1 0 1 4 .3 % c ol um bi a 6 2 ,7 6 3 9 ,6 8 5 2 ,0 9 0 2 1 .5 8 % 5 ,4 1 3 6 ,5 6 5 1 7 .5 % c ra w fo rd 8 4 ,3 2 7 1 1 ,5 2 6 3 ,5 6 5 3 0 .9 3 % 9 ,1 1 7 1 0 ,6 8 4 1 4 .7 % c um be rl an d 2 2 3 ,2 6 2 1 6 ,9 4 1 4 ,7 5 1 2 8 .0 4 % 1 0 ,9 8 4 1 4 ,3 4 9 2 3 .5 % d au ph in 2 6 2 ,8 7 8 2 8 ,3 7 0 8 ,5 6 0 3 0 .1 7 % 2 2 ,0 9 3 2 9 ,6 4 8 2 5 .5 % d el aw ar e 5 3 8 ,1 2 8 4 5 ,1 8 0 1 3 ,4 2 1 2 9 .7 1 % 4 2 ,2 1 6 4 9 ,1 2 7 1 4 .1 % e lk 3 1 ,4 1 1 2 ,5 2 8 5 1 7 2 0 .4 5 % 2 ,7 2 8 3 ,1 3 3 1 2 .9 % e ri e 2 6 8 ,0 4 4 3 7 ,0 0 3 9 ,1 6 1 2 4 .7 6 % 3 1 ,3 8 7 3 8 ,4 6 9 1 8 .4 % fa ye tt e 1 3 2 ,1 3 8 2 0 ,2 8 6 6 ,1 0 1 3 0 .0 7 % 2 0 ,1 9 9 2 3 ,7 8 5 1 5 .1 % fo re st 4 ,8 0 3 6 9 0 2 2 5 3 2 .6 1 % 5 7 4 7 1 5 1 9 .7 % fr an kl in 1 4 7 ,6 4 0 1 3 ,3 5 4 5 ,3 2 0 3 9 .8 4 % 9 ,3 3 3 1 2 ,3 9 6 2 4 .7 % fu lt on 1 4 ,6 4 1 1 ,5 1 9 4 5 8 3 0 .1 5 % 1 ,3 4 7 1 ,6 3 4 1 7 .6 % g re en e 3 4 ,0 8 9 4 ,4 7 2 1 ,1 9 5 2 6 .7 2 % 4 ,4 2 9 5 ,1 2 2 1 3 .5 % h un ti ng do n 4 0 ,6 8 8 4 ,5 7 9 1 ,1 9 6 2 6 .1 2 % 4 ,3 2 2 5 ,1 3 1 1 5 .8 % in di an a 8 3 ,2 1 9 1 3 ,9 0 3 3 ,4 9 6 2 5 .1 5 % 7 ,4 1 5 9 ,4 3 3 2 1 .4 % je ff er so n 4 4 ,1 7 4 5 ,5 3 5 1 ,5 8 5 2 8 .6 4 % 5 ,1 2 8 5 ,9 8 4 1 4 .3 % ju ni at a 2 4 ,3 5 9 2 ,6 5 9 9 1 0 3 4 .2 2 % 1 ,8 2 8 2 ,1 6 5 1 5 .6 % 26 ta bl e a .1 ( co nt in ue d)   to ta l p op ul at io n (2 0 1 3 ) p op ul at io n 1 8 –6 4 u nd er 1 3 8 f p l (2 0 1 3 ) n um be r 1 8 –6 4 y ea rs o ld u nd er 1 3 8 f p l u ni ns ur ed (2 0 1 3 ) p er ce nt ag e p op ul at io n 1 8 –6 4 un de r 1 3 8 f p l u ni ns ur ed ju ne 2 0 1 4 a du lt m ed ic ai d e nr ol le es ju ne 2 0 1 5 a du lt m ed ic ai d e nr ol le es p er ce nt ag e c ha ng e in a du lt m ed ic ai d e nr ol le es ju ne 2 0 1 4 – ju ne 2 0 1 5 la ck aw an na 2 0 6 ,3 1 8 2 3 ,2 3 0 6 ,4 5 9 2 7 .8 0 % 2 1 ,4 5 0 2 6 ,5 3 2 1 9 .2 % la nc as te r 5 0 8 ,3 9 7 4 5 ,9 3 5 1 4 ,7 5 6 3 2 .1 2 % 3 4 ,4 5 9 4 2 ,8 4 7 1 9 .6 % la w re nc e 8 7 ,9 0 4 1 0 ,0 4 0 2 ,9 7 3 2 9 .6 1 % 9 ,6 4 7 1 1 ,7 0 3 1 7 .6 % le ba no n 1 3 0 ,6 2 0 1 1 ,1 3 7 3 ,4 6 1 3 1 .0 8 % 9 ,5 2 9 1 2 ,3 9 4 2 3 .1 % le hi gh 3 4 2 ,3 0 1 3 7 ,3 4 2 1 3 ,1 6 3 3 5 .2 5 % 3 0 ,7 9 2 3 9 ,3 3 7 2 1 .7 % lu ze rn e 3 0 9 ,2 0 0 3 7 ,7 1 9 1 1 ,6 4 6 3 0 .8 8 % 3 2 ,5 3 1 4 0 ,1 9 7 1 9 .1 % ly co m in g 1 1 1 ,1 2 9 1 3 ,6 1 9 3 ,7 8 2 2 7 .7 7 % 1 1 ,1 2 1 1 3 ,5 8 6 1 8 .1 % m ck ea n 4 0 ,0 3 9 5 ,6 2 0 1 ,4 1 4 2 5 .1 6 % 4 ,9 4 7 5 ,9 6 8 1 7 .1 % m er ce r 1 0 8 ,8 5 4 1 2 ,6 6 1 3 ,3 7 6 2 6 .6 6 % 1 2 ,7 5 4 1 4 ,7 4 5 1 3 .5 % m if fl in 4 6 ,0 6 9 6 ,1 8 2 2 ,1 3 5 3 4 .5 4 % 5 ,2 5 8 6 ,0 7 6 1 3 .5 % m on ro e 1 ,6 5 2 ,2 0 2 1 8 ,3 4 6 6 ,0 5 8 3 3 .0 2 % 1 3 ,3 6 7 1 6 ,9 1 6 2 1 .0 % m on tg om er y 7 8 4 ,2 0 2 4 2 ,4 6 4 1 2 ,9 6 8 3 0 .5 4 % 3 7 ,1 1 2 4 9 ,4 7 1 2 5 .0 % m on to ur 1 7 ,7 5 7 1 ,5 9 1 5 3 5 3 3 .6 3 % 1 ,5 3 0 1 ,7 3 1 1 1 .6 % n or th am pt on 2 8 7 ,1 1 3 2 3 ,6 9 3 6 ,5 7 4 2 7 .7 5 % 1 9 ,8 0 3 2 6 ,0 3 4 2 3 .9 % n or th um be rl an d 8 9 ,8 5 2 1 1 ,1 6 3 3 ,9 1 1 3 5 .0 4 % 9 ,5 5 2 1 1 ,6 8 4 1 8 .2 % p er ry 4 5 ,0 6 1 3 ,5 7 8 1 ,2 4 3 3 4 .7 4 % 2 ,7 3 9 3 ,4 3 1 2 0 .2 % p hi la de lp hi a 1 ,4 9 3 ,7 4 5 3 1 6 ,9 5 2 8 8 ,6 9 6 2 7 .9 8 % 2 7 1 ,4 8 6 3 2 6 ,4 7 3 1 6 .8 % p ik e 5 6 ,4 1 4 5 ,0 0 0 1 ,8 5 1 3 7 .0 2 % 3 ,3 9 9 4 ,7 5 0 2 8 .4 % p ot te r 1 7 ,1 7 0 2 ,1 5 8 6 8 3 3 1 .6 5 % 1 ,7 9 1 2 ,1 5 1 1 6 .7 % s ch uy lk ill 1 4 0 ,1 7 7 1 5 ,8 5 2 5 ,0 2 3 3 1 .6 9 % 1 4 ,5 8 6 1 7 ,6 3 2 1 7 .3 % s ny de r 3 7 ,3 1 4 3 ,7 4 9 1 ,3 6 3 3 6 .3 6 % 2 ,8 5 5 3 ,4 8 2 1 8 .0 % s om er se t 7 3 ,0 4 2 7 ,6 5 5 2 ,4 2 9 3 1 .7 3 % 6 ,7 3 6 8 ,4 3 7 2 0 .2 % s ul liv an 6 ,2 5 1 8 1 9 2 1 8 2 6 .6 2 % 6 1 4 7 3 3 1 6 .2 % s us qu eh an na 4 2 ,3 6 6 5 ,2 3 2 1 ,7 7 9 3 4 .0 0 % 3 ,0 6 7 3 ,7 9 5 1 9 .2 % ti og a 4 0 ,4 9 2 5 ,2 8 2 1 ,7 5 4 3 3 .2 1 % 3 ,5 6 8 4 ,6 3 8 2 3 .1 % u ni on 3 5 ,7 2 9 4 ,1 1 5 1 ,1 2 7 2 7 .3 9 % 2 ,4 2 0 2 ,8 3 7 1 4 .7 % ve na ng o 5 3 ,3 4 2 6 ,7 5 0 1 ,8 2 2 2 6 .9 9 % 6 ,0 9 6 7 ,1 2 7 1 4 .5 % w ar re n 4 0 ,4 4 0 4 ,4 5 0 1 ,4 0 4 3 1 .5 5 % 3 ,7 8 2 4 ,4 9 6 1 5 .9 % w as hi ng to n 2 0 3 ,1 7 9 1 9 ,6 3 4 5 ,3 9 0 2 7 .4 5 % 1 6 ,0 5 8 1 9 ,6 7 2 1 8 .4 % w ay ne 4 8 ,5 5 4 5 ,1 6 2 1 ,4 8 1 2 8 .6 9 % 4 ,3 0 9 5 ,3 4 7 1 9 .4 % w es tm or el an d 3 5 5 ,9 2 4 3 2 ,7 7 8 8 ,2 8 4 2 5 .2 7 % 3 0 ,0 5 4 3 6 ,5 3 3 1 7 .7 % w yo m in g 2 7 ,3 9 4 2 ,8 9 2 7 2 7 2 5 .1 4 % 2 ,1 4 2 2 ,7 4 0 2 1 .8 % yo rk 4 2 7 ,1 4 0 3 6 ,3 1 1 1 2 ,6 7 2 3 4 .9 0 % 2 8 ,1 0 0 3 7 ,3 2 7 2 4 .7 % so ur ce : u .s . c en su s b ur ea u, a m er ic an c om m un it y s ur ve y, 2 01 1– 2 01 6 . 27 ta bl e a .1 ( co nt in ue d)   to ta l p op ul at io n (2 0 1 3 ) p op ul at io n 1 8 –6 4 u nd er 1 3 8 f p l (2 0 1 3 ) n um be r 1 8 –6 4 y ea rs o ld u nd er 1 3 8 f p l u ni ns ur ed (2 0 1 3 ) p er ce nt ag e p op ul at io n 1 8 –6 4 un de r 1 3 8 f p l u ni ns ur ed ju ne 2 0 1 4 a du lt m ed ic ai d e nr ol le es ju ne 2 0 1 5 a du lt m ed ic ai d e nr ol le es p er ce nt ag e c ha ng e in a du lt m ed ic ai d e nr ol le es ju ne 2 0 1 4 – ju ne 2 0 1 5 la ck aw an na 2 0 6 ,3 1 8 2 3 ,2 3 0 6 ,4 5 9 2 7 .8 0 % 2 1 ,4 5 0 2 6 ,5 3 2 1 9 .2 % la nc as te r 5 0 8 ,3 9 7 4 5 ,9 3 5 1 4 ,7 5 6 3 2 .1 2 % 3 4 ,4 5 9 4 2 ,8 4 7 1 9 .6 % la w re nc e 8 7 ,9 0 4 1 0 ,0 4 0 2 ,9 7 3 2 9 .6 1 % 9 ,6 4 7 1 1 ,7 0 3 1 7 .6 % le ba no n 1 3 0 ,6 2 0 1 1 ,1 3 7 3 ,4 6 1 3 1 .0 8 % 9 ,5 2 9 1 2 ,3 9 4 2 3 .1 % le hi gh 3 4 2 ,3 0 1 3 7 ,3 4 2 1 3 ,1 6 3 3 5 .2 5 % 3 0 ,7 9 2 3 9 ,3 3 7 2 1 .7 % lu ze rn e 3 0 9 ,2 0 0 3 7 ,7 1 9 1 1 ,6 4 6 3 0 .8 8 % 3 2 ,5 3 1 4 0 ,1 9 7 1 9 .1 % ly co m in g 1 1 1 ,1 2 9 1 3 ,6 1 9 3 ,7 8 2 2 7 .7 7 % 1 1 ,1 2 1 1 3 ,5 8 6 1 8 .1 % m ck ea n 4 0 ,0 3 9 5 ,6 2 0 1 ,4 1 4 2 5 .1 6 % 4 ,9 4 7 5 ,9 6 8 1 7 .1 % m er ce r 1 0 8 ,8 5 4 1 2 ,6 6 1 3 ,3 7 6 2 6 .6 6 % 1 2 ,7 5 4 1 4 ,7 4 5 1 3 .5 % m if fl in 4 6 ,0 6 9 6 ,1 8 2 2 ,1 3 5 3 4 .5 4 % 5 ,2 5 8 6 ,0 7 6 1 3 .5 % m on ro e 1 ,6 5 2 ,2 0 2 1 8 ,3 4 6 6 ,0 5 8 3 3 .0 2 % 1 3 ,3 6 7 1 6 ,9 1 6 2 1 .0 % m on tg om er y 7 8 4 ,2 0 2 4 2 ,4 6 4 1 2 ,9 6 8 3 0 .5 4 % 3 7 ,1 1 2 4 9 ,4 7 1 2 5 .0 % m on to ur 1 7 ,7 5 7 1 ,5 9 1 5 3 5 3 3 .6 3 % 1 ,5 3 0 1 ,7 3 1 1 1 .6 % n or th am pt on 2 8 7 ,1 1 3 2 3 ,6 9 3 6 ,5 7 4 2 7 .7 5 % 1 9 ,8 0 3 2 6 ,0 3 4 2 3 .9 % n or th um be rl an d 8 9 ,8 5 2 1 1 ,1 6 3 3 ,9 1 1 3 5 .0 4 % 9 ,5 5 2 1 1 ,6 8 4 1 8 .2 % p er ry 4 5 ,0 6 1 3 ,5 7 8 1 ,2 4 3 3 4 .7 4 % 2 ,7 3 9 3 ,4 3 1 2 0 .2 % p hi la de lp hi a 1 ,4 9 3 ,7 4 5 3 1 6 ,9 5 2 8 8 ,6 9 6 2 7 .9 8 % 2 7 1 ,4 8 6 3 2 6 ,4 7 3 1 6 .8 % p ik e 5 6 ,4 1 4 5 ,0 0 0 1 ,8 5 1 3 7 .0 2 % 3 ,3 9 9 4 ,7 5 0 2 8 .4 % p ot te r 1 7 ,1 7 0 2 ,1 5 8 6 8 3 3 1 .6 5 % 1 ,7 9 1 2 ,1 5 1 1 6 .7 % s ch uy lk ill 1 4 0 ,1 7 7 1 5 ,8 5 2 5 ,0 2 3 3 1 .6 9 % 1 4 ,5 8 6 1 7 ,6 3 2 1 7 .3 % s ny de r 3 7 ,3 1 4 3 ,7 4 9 1 ,3 6 3 3 6 .3 6 % 2 ,8 5 5 3 ,4 8 2 1 8 .0 % s om er se t 7 3 ,0 4 2 7 ,6 5 5 2 ,4 2 9 3 1 .7 3 % 6 ,7 3 6 8 ,4 3 7 2 0 .2 % s ul liv an 6 ,2 5 1 8 1 9 2 1 8 2 6 .6 2 % 6 1 4 7 3 3 1 6 .2 % s us qu eh an na 4 2 ,3 6 6 5 ,2 3 2 1 ,7 7 9 3 4 .0 0 % 3 ,0 6 7 3 ,7 9 5 1 9 .2 % ti og a 4 0 ,4 9 2 5 ,2 8 2 1 ,7 5 4 3 3 .2 1 % 3 ,5 6 8 4 ,6 3 8 2 3 .1 % u ni on 3 5 ,7 2 9 4 ,1 1 5 1 ,1 2 7 2 7 .3 9 % 2 ,4 2 0 2 ,8 3 7 1 4 .7 % ve na ng o 5 3 ,3 4 2 6 ,7 5 0 1 ,8 2 2 2 6 .9 9 % 6 ,0 9 6 7 ,1 2 7 1 4 .5 % w ar re n 4 0 ,4 4 0 4 ,4 5 0 1 ,4 0 4 3 1 .5 5 % 3 ,7 8 2 4 ,4 9 6 1 5 .9 % w as hi ng to n 2 0 3 ,1 7 9 1 9 ,6 3 4 5 ,3 9 0 2 7 .4 5 % 1 6 ,0 5 8 1 9 ,6 7 2 1 8 .4 % w ay ne 4 8 ,5 5 4 5 ,1 6 2 1 ,4 8 1 2 8 .6 9 % 4 ,3 0 9 5 ,3 4 7 1 9 .4 % w es tm or el an d 3 5 5 ,9 2 4 3 2 ,7 7 8 8 ,2 8 4 2 5 .2 7 % 3 0 ,0 5 4 3 6 ,5 3 3 1 7 .7 % w yo m in g 2 7 ,3 9 4 2 ,8 9 2 7 2 7 2 5 .1 4 % 2 ,1 4 2 2 ,7 4 0 2 1 .8 % yo rk 4 2 7 ,1 4 0 3 6 ,3 1 1 1 2 ,6 7 2 3 4 .9 0 % 2 8 ,1 0 0 3 7 ,3 2 7 2 4 .7 % so ur ce : u .s . c en su s b ur ea u, a m er ic an c om m un it y s ur ve y, 2 01 1– 2 01 6 . 28 michele moser deegan and a. lanethea mathewsschultz notes 1. the aca extends medicaid coverage to individuals living at 133% of the fpl, but requires states to apply a 5% income disregard in determining eligibility, effectively bringing minimum eligibility requirements to 138% of the federal poverty level. 2. in response to mandated medicaid expansion and to the “individual mandate” provisions of the aca requiring individuals to obtain health insurance or face a tax penalty, 26 states and the national association of independent businesses sued the federal government. the states were alabama, alaska, arizona, colorado, florida, georgia, idaho, indiana, iowa, kansas, louisiana, maine, michigan, mississippi, nebraska, nevada, north dakota, pennsylvania, ohio, south carolina, south dakota, texas, utah, washington, wisconsin, and wyoming. 3. others include arkansas, maine, oklahoma, tennessee, and wyoming. of these, only arkansas is reforming medicaid and it is doing so through a section 1115 waiver, rather than the aca expansion. pennsylvania is the only mixed or hybrid state to have adopted the aca medicaid expansion. 4. a handful of additional states pursued similar staterun privatized alternatives for expanding medicaid, including arkansas, iowa, michigan, and tennessee. 5. these individuals are referred to as pco beneficiaries because they receive care through private managed plans. eligibility under corbett’s private coverage program was limited to individuals ages 21–64 with incomes up to 133% of the federal poverty level, including childless adults and those with incomes greater than 33% fpl, which was previously the income cap for medicaid in pennsylvania. existing medicaid recipients were funneled into one of two new managed plans: a highrisk pool enrolling pregnant women, ssi beneficiaries, and those eligible for medicare and medicaid; and a lowrisk pool offering more limited medical services. newly eligible adults not determined to be “medically frail” were enrolled in the private coverage option. 6. the cms project stipulated that cost sharing and premium contributions could not exceed 5% of family income. 7. marilyn tavenner, secretary, federal department of health and human services to beverly mackereth, secretary of the pennsylvania department of public welfare, august 28, 2014. 8. prior to the aca, states were already required to provide coverage at higher levels to children and pregnant women. 9. some 19 and 20yearold adults without children with incomes up to 33% fpl previously were eligible for coverage. 10. press release 2015. 11. one limitation is that for the purposes of medicaid eligibility in the state of pennsylvania, adults are considered individuals ages 21–64. the census data on poverty and the uninsured, however, defines adults as those ages 18–64. 12. we do not estimate it here, but it is important not to underappreciate the effects of obamacare and medicaid expansion on individuals previously eligible for but nonetheless unenrolled in medicaid. 13. prior to implementation of the aca, county and municipal health departments could provide primary care services not available through state district offices, such as immunizations, mammograms, and dental services. the limits of medicaid reform in pennsylvania 29 references beeler, carolyn. 2013. “corbett rejects obamacare medicaid expansion for pennsylvania.” newsworks, february 5. available at www.newsworks.org/index.php/ local/healthscience/50558-corbett-rejects-obamacare-medicaid-expansion-for -pennsylvania. accessed june 24, 2016. brecher, charles, and shanna rose. “medicaid’s next metamorphosis.” public administration review 73 (s1): s60–s68. central massachusetts regional public health alliance. 2014. greater worcester community health improvement plan 2014 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to action results of a statewide workforce assessment.” institute for community health. institute of medicine. 2011. state and local policy initiatives to reduce health disparities: workshop summary. washington, dc: the national academies press. jacobs, l. r., and t. callaghan. 2013. “why states expand medicaid: party, resources, and history.” journal of health policy and law 38 (5): 1023–1050. joint state government commission. 1997. “intermediate units in pennsylvania: the role of educational service agencies in promoting equity in basic education.” general assembly of the commonwealth of pennsylvania. kaiser commission on medicaid and the uninsured. 2012. “where are states today? medicaid and chip eligibility levels for children and nondisabled adults.” fact sheet (updated march 2016). available at kff.org/medicaid/factsheet/whereare -states-today-medicaid-and-chip/. accessed july 5, 2016. ———. 2016. “the pennsylvania health care landscape.” available at kff.org/health -reform/fact-sheet/the-pennsylvania-health-care-landscape/#footnote-186841-47. accessed july 5, 2016. kenny, genevieve, lisa dubay, stephen zuckerman, and michael huntress. 2012. “opting out of the medicaid expansion under the aca: how many uninsured adults would not be eligible for medicaid?” health policy center. urban institute: washington, dc (july 5). available at www.urban.org/research/publication/opting-out-medicaid expansionunderacahowmanyuninsuredadultswouldnotbeeligiblemedicaid. accessed july 5, 2016. kirby, j. b., and t. kaneda. 2005. “neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage and access to health care.” journal of health and social behavior 46 (1): 15–31. http://www.newsworks.org/index.php/local/healthscience/50558-corbett-rejects-obamacare-medicaid-expansion-for-pennsylvania http://www.newsworks.org/index.php/local/healthscience/50558-corbett-rejects-obamacare-medicaid-expansion-for-pennsylvania http://www.newsworks.org/index.php/local/healthscience/50558-corbett-rejects-obamacare-medicaid-expansion-for-pennsylvania http://healthycentralma.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/chip-annual-report-final-for-web.pdf http://healthycentralma.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/chip-annual-report-final-for-web.pdf http://kff.org/medicaid/fact-sheet/where-are-states-today-medicaid-and-chip/ http://kff.org/medicaid/fact-sheet/where-are-states-today-medicaid-and-chip/ http://kff.org/health-reform/fact-sheet/the-pennsylvania-health-care-landscape/#footnote-186841-47 http://kff.org/health-reform/fact-sheet/the-pennsylvania-health-care-landscape/#footnote-186841-47 http://www.urban.org/research/publication/opting-out-medicaid-expansion-under-aca-how-many-uninsured-adults-would-not-be-eligible-medicaid http://www.urban.org/research/publication/opting-out-medicaid-expansion-under-aca-how-many-uninsured-adults-would-not-be-eligible-medicaid 30 michele moser deegan and a. lanethea mathewsschultz larosa, michael. 2013. “corbett could be first governor to lose reelection in pa. history.” msbc.com, september 13. available at http://www.msnbc.com/hardball/ corbett-could-be-first-governor-lose-re-el. accessed june 22, 2016. ledebur, larry c., and william r. barnes. 1993. all in it together: cities, suburbs, and local economic regions. washington, dc: national league of cities. luo, wei. 2004. “using a gisbased floating catchment method to assess areas with shortage of physicians.” health and place 10: 1–11. lynch, john w., richard d. cohen, katherine e. heck, jennifer l. balfour, and irene h. yen. 1998. “income inequality and mortality in metropolitan areas of the united states.” american journal of public health 88 (7): 1074–1080. massachusetts public health regionalization project. 2016. available at www.bu.edu/ regionalization/. accessed june 30, 2016. massachusetts public health regionalization working group. 2009. “massachusetts public health regionalization project status report.” mathews, a. lanethea. 2012. “st. luke’s community healthy needs study survey findings.” lehigh valley research consortium. available at www.lehighvalleyresearch .org. accessed june 30, 2016. mathewsschultz, a. lanethea, and robert brill. 2015. “the lehigh valley disability community: re-e xamining community needs and opportunities.” lehigh valley research consortium. available at www.lehighvalleyresearch.org. accessed june 30, 2016. mays, glenn, and renee frauendienst. 2014. “making the case for public health.” minnesota public health research to action network. miller, david y. 2002. the regional governing of metropolitan america. boulder, co: westview press. minnesota department of health. 2014. office of performance improvement. “measures matter: using performance measures to understand and improve local public health capacity and services.” available at www.health.state.mn.us/ppmrs/library/ docs/2013_systemsummary.pdf. accessed june 30, 2016. ———. 2015. health partnerships division. “building a solid foundation for health: 2015 report to the minnesota legislature on public health system development.” ———. 2016. “minnesota’s public health system.” available at www.health.state.mn.us/ divs/opi/gov/context/. accessed june 30, 2016. national federation of independent business et al. v sebelius, secretary of health and human services, et al. 2012. 567_ us, 183 l. ed. 2d 450, 132 s.ct. 2566. olson, laura, and david esack. 2014. “tom wolf elected pennsylvania governor in landslide.” morning call, january 24. available at www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/ mc-pa-governor-election-wolf-corbett-20141104-story.html. accessed june 23, 2016. orefield, myron. 2002. american metropolitics: the new suburban reality. washington dc: brookings institution. pastor, manuel jr., peter dreier, j. eugene grigsby iii, and marta lopezgarza. 2000. regions that work: how cities and suburbs can grow together. minneapolis: university of minnesota press. patient protection and affordable care act, public law 111–148m 124 stat. 1029 (2010). pennsylvania association of community health centers. 2015. “community health centers pennsylvania directory.” policylink. 2002. “promoting regional equity: a framing paper.” prepared by policylink for promoting regional equity: a national summit on equitable development, social justice, and smart growth, november 17–19, los angeles, ca. http://www.msnbc.com/hardball/corbett-could-be-first-governor-lose-re-el http://www.msnbc.com/hardball/corbett-could-be-first-governor-lose-re-el http://www.lehighvalleyresearch.org http://www.lehighvalleyresearch.org http://www.lehighvalleyresearch.org http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/opi/gov/context/ http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/opi/gov/context/ http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/mc-pa-governor-election-wolf-corbett-20141104-story.html http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/mc-pa-governor-election-wolf-corbett-20141104-story.html the limits of medicaid reform in pennsylvania 31 press release. 2015. “150,000 additional pennsylvanians enrolled in governor wolf ’s medicaid expansion plan,” office of governor tom wolf, july 22. ramsay, david. 2015. “red states are reinventing medicaid to make it more expensive and bureaucratic.” new republic, january 18. rusk, david r. 2003. “cities without suburbs: a 2000 census update,” 3rd ed. washington, dc: woodrow wilson center. salinsky, eileen. 2010. “governmental public health: an overview of state and local public health agencies.” national health policy forum, background paper, no. 77. savitch, h. v., d. collins, d. sanders, and j. p. markha. 1993. “ties that bind: central cities, suburbs and the new metropolitan region.” economic development quarterly 7 (4): 341–357. savitch, h. v., and ronald k. vogel. 2000. “paths to new regionalism.” state and local government review 32 (3): 158–168. schulz, amy j., david r. williams, barbara a. israel, and lora bex lempert. 2002. “racial and spatial relations as fundamental determinants of health in detroit.” milbank quarterly 80 (4): 677–707. swanstrom, todd, peter dreier, and john mollenkopf. 2002. “economic inequality and public policy: the power of place.” city and community 1 (4): 349–373. wang, fahui, and wei luo. 2005. “assessing spatial and nonspatial factors for healthcare access: towards an integrated approach to defining health professional shortage areas.” health and place 11: 131–146. wang, fahui, and w. william minor. 2002. “where the jobs are: employment access and crime patterns in cleveland.” annals of the association of american geographers 92 (3): 435–450. wenner, david. 2014. “corbett claims ‘historic’ achievement in pa. plan to use obamacare expansion funds.” pennlive, august 28. available at www.pennlive.com/ midstate/index.ssf/2014/08/pennsylvania_corbett_obamacare.html. accessed june 24, 2016. michele moser deegan, phd, is an associate professor and the chair of the political science department at muhlenberg college. she is also the founding director of the lehigh valley research consortium. her research and publications focus on issues of inequality at the local level, particularly in the areas of education and health policy. her publications include articles in the journal of urban affairs, public administration review, and educational evaluation and policy analysis and multiple research studies of the lehigh valley region of pennsylvania. a. lanethea mathews-s chultz, phd, is an associate professor of political science at muhlenberg college, where she teaches classes on american politics, gender and public policy, citizenship, and political institutions. as an independent researcher affiliated with the lehigh valley research consortium, she has conducted several regional studies of community health, focusing on access and equity issues in health and well-b eing. her recent work has been published in political research quarterly and progress in community health partnerships: research, education, and action. http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/08/pennsylvania_corbett_obamacare.html http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/08/pennsylvania_corbett_obamacare.html structure bookmarks the limits of medicaid reform in pennsylvania seeking regional solutions to health challenges in pennsylvania microsoft word journal commonwealth 2007 final 0307.doc 79 a tale of two cities revisited: the philadelphia mayoral election of 2003 jeffrey kraus wagner college this article examines the philadelphia mayoral election of 2003, which was a re-match of the 1999 contest. the author contends that while philadelphia remained a divided city, partisanship rather than race best explains the election’s outcome. by “nationalizing” the election, democratic mayor john street tied his moderate republican challenger, sam katz, to the unpopular republican administration in washington, d.c. the revelation of a recording device in mayor street’s office, rather than damaging street, galvanized his african-american base while bringing a number of white democrats back into the street camp. these factors, along with a massive voter registration drive by democratic party operatives, transformed the party’s narrow victory of 1999 into a landslide four years later. introduction the 2003 philadelphia mayoral election was a re-match of the contentious and polarizing contest of 1999. democrat john street, the african-american who had been narrowly elected mayor of this overwhelmingly democratic city four years earlier, once again faced republican sam katz. in 1999, street became philadelphia’s 122nd mayor by narrowly defeating katz, winning by fewer than 9,500 votes out of more than 439,000 votes cast, making it the closest election since 1911.1 such a narrow margin would not be expected in a city where democrats, street’s party, constitute 75% of the electorate. race, however, race was a significant factor in the outcome as white democrats voted for katz, creating a “tale of two cities,” where white voters, regardless of party identification, voted for katz while african-americans and other minorities supported street (kraus 2002a). since philadelphia adopted its present home rule charter in 1951, every incumbent mayor who has sought re-election has prevailed. only two of street’s predecessors faced serious 80 challenges. in 1987, wilson goode, the city’s first africanamerican mayor, coming off the move debacle, defeated former mayor (and democrat turned republican) frank rizzo by 17,000 votes.2 in 1967, mayor james tate defeated district attorney (and future united states senator) arlen specter by 10,748 votes. given street’s incumbency and the overwhelming democratic registration advantage, street should have been an overwhelming favorite to win re-election. however, there was still the issue of race. would a katz-street re-match lead to yet another competitive and racially divisive contest? the race issue is not confined to philadelphia. throughout the united states the question persists as to whether race still matters in elections. in new york city, the david dinkins–rudolph giuliani contests of 1989 and 1993 demonstrated that race was an issue in the nation’s largest and most diverse city.3 in 1993, the perception that mayor dinkins had been “soft on crime” and had been ineffective in dealing with a number of racial controversies cost him significant support among white democratic voters, who opted to support giuliani (barrett 2000, kirtzman 2000, mollenkopf 2002). the 2001 contest in the same city saw the democratic party’s alliance of liberal whites, african-americans, and latinos unravel as the result of a racially divisive primary campaign, allowing a neophyte billionaire republican to win (kraus 2002b). new york was not alone. during the 1980s and 1990s a number of cities with elected african-american mayors saw those mayors succeeded by whites who often subscribed to more conservative policies than did their african-american predecessors. in the same year that giuliani was elected in new york, republican richard riordan became mayor of los angeles. in 1992, bret schundler became the first republican mayor elected in jersey city in 75 years. in chicago, richard m. daley, the son of richard j. daley, was elected mayor following the death of chicago’s first african-american mayor, harold washington. edward rendell succeeded wilson goode, and in baltimore martin o’malley replaced kurt schmoke. like giuliani, all stressed crime reduction, economic development, and fiscal discipline as prescriptions for urban revitalization (judd and swanstrom 2004, 397–401). 81 in some cities where african-american mayors have sought reelection their white support has actually increased as those voters found that their fears about a city administration led by an africanamerican mayor had not come to pass.4 in fact, a 1983 study found that african-american mayors expressed attitudes and followed policies that were not different from white mayors regarding fiscal policy (clark and ferguson 1983, 144–148). as levy (2000, 65) observed, in many large american cities “leadership has swung back and forth between blacks and whites.” did race still matter to the philadelphia electorate in 2003? to answer this question, the political landscape, the candidates and their messages, and the election campaign will be reviewed. particular attention will be paid to the voting behavior of philadelphians in the general election. philadelphia’s political landscape in 2003 philadelphia is one of the nation’s most heavily democratic cities. in the years following street’s narrow victory, white democrats returned to the fold. in 2000, philadelphians overwhelmingly cast their ballots for vice president al gore and senator joe lieberman, giving them nearly 80% of the vote in the city and paving the way for gore to carry the state’s 23 electoral votes.5 in 2001, democratic district attorney lynne abraham was re-elected with more than 65% of the vote and jonathan saidel was re-elected city controller with more than 80% of the vote.6 in the 2002 gubernatorial election, democrat (and former philadelphia mayor) ed rendell would outpoll his republican opponent, state attorney general mike fisher, by more than 280,000 votes in philadelphia.7 while the city remained a democratic bastion, there had been other changes in the political landscape since street’s narrow victory four years earlier. a republican president was elected in the closest election in american history in november 2000, depriving the city’s democratic mayor of an ally in the white house. in 2002, rendell was elected governor, becoming the first philadelphian to hold the office since martin grove brumbaugh was elected in 1914. in 2003, one of philadelphia’s few republican elected officials, john michael perzel, would become speaker of the pennsylvania house of representatives. the presence of 82 rendell and perzel at the highest levels of state government should have given the city more influence in harrisburg than at any time in recent history. another factor to consider was that in the four years since the last municipal election the number of white non-hispanic residents declined. according to united states census bureau estimates, the number of whites living in philadelphia dropped from 644,395 in april 2000 to 615,453 (committee of seventy, 2003b). if the electorate was as racially polarized as it had been in 1999, katz’s task would have been more difficult. yet philadelphia is also a city where no racial or ethnic group constitutes a majority. according to the census estimate, 43% of the population is african-american and 41% is white. there are approximately 75,000 asian residents (4.5%) and 135,000 latinos (8.5%). while there were fewer whites, there were also fewer democrats. following the 2002 elections, the board of city commissioners conducted the first purge of inactive voters permitted under the national voter registration act (motor voter) of 1993.8 table 1 registered voters in philadelphia, 1999 and 2003 voters november 1999 april 2003 change all registered 986,366 906,684 -79,682 republicans 191,416 160,344 -31,072 democrats 735,423 685,432 -49,991 others 59,527 60,908 +1,381 source: board of city commissioners registration data. while both parties experienced declines in registration due to the purge, 19,000 more democrats than republicans were dropped 83 from the rolls. considering that street’s first victory had come by slightly more than 9,000 votes, the loss of more democratic voters could be a factor in another close election. the candidates and their messages street portrayed himself as the “neighborhood mayor” who had worked to improve the quality of life and quality of city services in every city neighborhood. of particular importance, according to the mayor, were his operation safe streets crime prevention and neighborhood blight removal programs (known as the neighborhood transformation initiative). these programs boarded up abandoned houses, removed 175,000 abandoned cars from the city’s streets, cleaned up 31,000 vacant lots, and placed more than 45,000 children in after school programs (athans 2003, 2a). here street differed from his predecessor, ed rendell, who in his eight years in office emphasized restoring center city and improving the city’s finances.9 street took credit for balancing the city’s budget and negotiating agreements for new stadiums for the philadelphia phillies and philadelphia eagles while cutting taxes by about $200 million. he also cited his successful effort to have automobile insurance premiums lowered for city residents. however, during street’s first term the state took control of the city’s troubled school district, the pennsylvania convention center, and the philadelphia parking authority.10 following his narrow loss to street in 1999, katz became ceo of greater philadelphia first, a regional business association of chief executives of the area’s largest employers.11 in his third run for the mayoralty (he had also lost to rendell in 1991), katz argued that street had failed to address adequately philadelphia’s problems, and he insisted that “we can do better” (fleming 2003, 1). the major theme that katz hoped to emphasize was that the street administration operated in a culture that was corrupt, incompetent, and rampant with cronyism. in making this claim, katz could point to street’s own words from 1999: “the people who support me in the general election have a greater chance of getting business from my administration than the people who support sam katz” (associated press 2003 a8). a democrat turned moderate republican (he switched parties in 1990), katz was pro-choice on abortion, supported employment 84 opportunities for gays and lesbians, and supported increased funding for aids victims.13 he proposed to jump-start philadelphia’s economy by cutting the wage tax from 4.4% to 3.5%, with the shortfall in revenue being made up by a $750 million bond issue that would be re-paid over ten years. citing the continuing loss of population and jobs, katz contended that under street the city had lost the momentum of the rendell era. according to katz, philadelphia faced three problems: a high crime rate and low quality of life, the exodus of the young and college-educated, and tax policies that create an unfavorable business climate. katz said that one of his goals as mayor would be to attract 250,000 residents into the city over a 15 year period. by cutting business taxes, philadelphia would retain businesses. as katz explained it, “our tax structure created cherry hill and king of prussia” (siegel 2003, 13). as far as street’s crime control policies were concerned, katz contended that crime was not going down, but moving to neighborhoods with less of a police presence. katz’s anti-crime proposals included deploying additional police during time periods when gun crimes most often occur and creating a “gun court” with jurisdiction over gun cases. katz may have best articulated how the election ultimately would be decided: “the extent that i can get african american, latino and asian votes, and the extent that john street can get white votes, will decide the election” (caruso 2003, a14). a march 2003 keystone poll showed katz with a 44% to 40% lead over street. this poll found that race mattered in that african-americans and whites had divergent views about the direction of the city, street’s performance, and the success of his policies. africanamerican voters were more likely than whites to think that the city was headed in the right direction, that things were better in philadelphia than they were four years earlier, and that mayor street was doing an excellent or good job (millersville university 2003). the general election campaign while the 1999 campaign was a polite, issues-oriented contest in which the candidates and their organizations avoided personal attacks, the 2003 campaign was far more contentious. among the campaign “issues” was a photograph of street with a convicted drug 85 dealer, allegations that katz was a friend of a former city council aide who had been convicted of extortion, charges that katz had once been implicated in a sexual harassment suit (the accuser later recanted), and claims that street accepted $125,000 in campaign contributions that katz said were illegal. in addition to the personal attacks, the campaign became ugly in other ways. in august, an unlit molotov cocktail was tossed through the window of a katz campaign office in north philadelphia. katz suggested that the street campaign was behind the vandalism, a charge denied by the mayor’s campaign staff. two members of street’s administration were charged with making terroristic threats to the building’s owner on the day before the incident.14 a confrontation earlier on the day of the vandalism between the mayor’s son, sharif, an assistant city manager, and the building’s landlord, lewis harris, was videotaped and aired on local television newscasts. the street campaign’s strategy was to mobilize democrats by asserting that a katz victory would mean a city controlled by president george w. bush and a loss of patronage jobs. to reinforce the message, the campaign brought in democratic heavyweights including bill clinton, al gore, jesse jackson, and governor rendell to make the case that a street victory would improve the democratic party’s chances of carrying pennsylvania in the 2004 presidential election. street also tried linking katz to president bush. at a campaign rally, street said: my opponent has a tax plan that looks so much like the george bush tax plan that i sometimes say that sam katz wants to do for philadelphia what george bush is doing for the country. and if that makes you nervous, you ought to be out there voting democrat and working for all of our democratic candidates. (npr 2003) the street campaign was the beneficiary of a massive voter registration drive conducted by congressman chaka fattah’s political operation.15 more than 86,000 new democratic voters were added to the rolls between april 2003 and the general election (meyerson 2003, a23). by comparison, 7,636 new republican voters registered during the same period (committee of seventy 86 2003c). this gave street a tremendous advantage. by expanding the electorate to this extent, fattah’s operation virtually guaranteed a street victory unless these new voters stayed home. since fattah’s operatives had registered them, it stands to reason that they would have found most of them on election day and brought them to the polls. later events would make such a “pull” unnecessary. as he had in 1999, katz downplayed his republican label in this democratic city, going so far as to skip a number of events when president bush visited the philadelphia area. instead, katz emphasized street’s failings as a leader. according to katz, the city faced a fiscal crisis, suffered a mismanaged convention center, and had a poor relationship with the state government in harrisburg. even street’s vaunted neighborhood blight program was, in katz’s words, “stuck in the mud” (bulletin’s frontrunner 2002). this was also a campaign where race, an unspoken issue in 1999, would break into the open. street was criticized for a 2002 speech to the national association for the advancement of colored people (naacp) where, noting that philadelphia had a black mayor, a black managing director, a black fire commissioner, and a black police commissioner, he boasted that “the brothers and sisters are running the city, we are in charge.” katz was attacked for a republican city committee mailing that urged white voters to help katz “take back philly” (getlin 2003, a20). despite katz’s claim that he had not authorized the mailing, street supporters accused him of “race baiting.” labor unions, which had almost unanimously backed street in 1999, were divided in this contest. while most unions remained with street, about a dozen endorsed katz. among those backing katz were the teamsters; gas workers employee union local 686; philadelphia firefighters union local 22; communications workers of america local 13000; the fraternal order of housing police; the philadelphia regional council of the united brotherhood of carpenters and joiners of america; and district council 33 of the american federation of state, county, and municipal employees (afscme). while katz questioned the street administration’s shortcomings with a television commercial using the phrase “when a mayor fails,” street’s campaign responded by touting the mayor’s accomplishments. a spot featuring actor bill cosby acknowledged the mayor’s reputation for personal aloofness with cosby saying 87 that “some politicians, they hug people and kiss babies….mayor street – his way of kissing and hugging is to put more policemen on the streets.” accompanying cosby’s voice-over were images of police officers on patrol, abandoned cars being removed from city streets, and children at computers. the positive tone of the cosby spot contrasted with the negative tone of katz’s advertisements. street, already ahead in the polls, opened up a huge lead after it was revealed that the federal bureau of investigation (fbi) had bugged the mayor’s city hall office. the listening device was discovered in the ceiling of the office during a routine check by the philadelphia police department.16 fbi officials then acknowledged that the device belonged to them, but declined to discuss what they characterized as an ongoing investigation. newspaper reports suggested that the device was part of a federal investigation into possible corruption in the awarding of contracts, including $13 million in maintenance contracts awarded for the philadelphia international airport.17 some of those contracts were awarded to a company that had a relationship with the mayor’s brother, t. milton street, sr.18 after his lawyer had conferred with the united states attorney’s office, mayor street said he was not a “target” of the investigation. he would admit later that “target” was a specific legal term used by the justice department when a person was likely to be indicted, and that he might still be the “subject” or “focus” of an investigation. federal officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, confirmed that the mayor was the “subject” of an investigation (which meant that he was being investigated, although he might not be suspected of breaking the law). asked if he understood the difference between a target and subject, street replied, “i understand the target is the really, really bad one” (schamberg 2003, 11). street also confirmed that he had turned over his “blackberry” to the fbi katz called upon street to make public exactly what he had been told regarding his status in the investigation.19 street assured his supporters that he had engaged in no wrongdoing, stating that those listening to the conservations recorded on the listening devices would hear “no corruption, no sex, and no profanity. not one word” (loviglio 2003, a3). while federal authorities denied that their surveillance of street’s office had anything to do with the election, democrats portrayed it as a republican plot to defeat street and help president 88 bush carry pennsylvania in 2004. nancy pelosi, the democratic leader in the united states house of representatives, questioned the timing of the investigation, stating, “that they would announce it’s not campaign-related raises even more questions about whether it’s campaign-related” (associate press 2003b, a13).20 democratic national committee chairman terry mcauliffe said, “serious questions arise when the democratic mayor of the fifth-largest city in the country discovers, just before a close election, that senior bush administration officials approved a plan to bug his office” (getlin 2003, a20). street suggested that party politics might be related to the bugging: “i believe that people are very, very concerned about this, and i think they have a right to be concerned….the timing of all this is very suspicious” (gibbons 2003, a1 ). for street’s supporters, the probe was perceived as yet another republican dirty trick, reminiscent of the 2000 election debacle in florida when thousands of black voters were allegedly disenfranchised. katz tried to downplay the allegations of political and racial bias. in an interview on the fox news channel, katz said: i don’t know anything about the timing. i do know that we’ve learned that this has been going on for two years. and there is an attempt being made now to create a certain victimization of the focus of these investigations. the real victims here are philadelphians, the people who pay the taxes, the people who need help from the city government, the people who are the employees of the city, city workers who can’t get health care, senior citizens who can’t get police on their streets, children in a public school—in a charter school who are shivering in the cold while the head of that school, who received a four million dollar grant, is riding around in a mercedes. (gibson 2003) katz’s effort to deflect the dirty tricks charge while focusing on his campaign-long theme that street ran a corrupt and patronagefilled administration failed. joining democratic partisans in the 89 attack were the naacp, the urban league, and black clergy, who echoed the democrats, likening the investigation of street to j. edgar hoover’s probe of martin luther king, jr.21 u.s. attorney patrick meehan defended the inquiry, stating that “federal law enforcement in the eastern district of pennsylvania has a very long history of doing its work without regard to partisan politics” (einhorn 2003, 8). the street campaign also responded by attacking katz’s integrity, bringing attention to a lawsuit brought by some of katz’s former business partners who were accusing him of embezzlement. the lawsuit developed from a criminal investigation in which katz was cleared of any criminal involvement while some of his associates were convicted.22 in television commercials aired by the street campaign, the katz embezzlement case was equated with the fbi investigation of the mayor. in a radio debate between the candidates, street challenged katz to open up the files related to the criminal investigation and civil action. when katz replied that he might ask to have the files opened, his lawyers filed a motion to keep the documents sealed (national public radio 2003). the effect of the bugging on the election was significant. in september 2003, a temple university/cbs 3/kyw poll showed mayor street had the backing of 74% of african-american voters. overall, katz held a 46% to 40% lead (smith 2003, 15). in early october, street had taken a lead, with a philadelphia daily news/keystone poll having him ahead by eight percentage points, 42% to 34% (center for opinion research 2003, 1). by late october, after the surveillance had been disclosed, street continued to lead katz, 48% to 41%. the bug appeared to galvanize street’s support in the african-american community, as 93% of africanamerican respondents indicated that they planned to vote for the mayor (goldenberg 2003, 22). professor randall m. miller, of st. joseph’s university, explained the effect of the bugging on africanamerican voters: “to many blacks, this seems like another example of someone coming after one of our own…. even if they don’t like street, there is a sense of collective violation that works to the mayor’s advantage” (dao 2003, 14). as election day neared, each side accused the other of planning to intimidate voters. both campaigns used the newlyopened national constitution center for their media event. local democratic party chair brady and dnc chair mcauliffe warned 90 that republicans would attempt to keep african-americans from voting, as they allegedly had done in other states. katz supporters, who had crashed the democratic press conference, charged that union members backing street would intimidate katz voters and republican poll watchers. carl singley, a one-time street partisan who now supported katz, said that “the last thing these men you just heard from want is a fair election” (bulletin’s frontrunner, 2003). on election day, katz supporters claimed that supporters of street beat up or intimidated katz campaign workers on at least half a dozen occasions. they also claimed that street supporters had tampered with voting machines. street’s organization countercharged that the katz campaign had intimidated african-american voters outside of several polling places by illegally demanding that they produce identification. the district attorney’s office reported 171 serious complaints, quadruple the number reported four years earlier (benson 2003, a20). the philadelphia police department received 110 complaints (daughen 2003,11). the outcome unlike their first contest, the 2003 contest ended with a decisive street victory. table 2 philadelphia mayoral election official results candidate party vote percent john f. street democrat 267,276 58.35 sam katz republican 189,357 41.34 john staggs socialist workers 1,292 0.28 write-in 164 0.04 source: philadelphia city commissioners. a city still divided by race and a little bit more by partisanship the 2003 results revealed that philadelphia was still two cities, with a majority of white (and normally democratic) philadelphians casting ballots for the republican while members of philadelphia’s minority communities voted overwhelmingly for street. on election 91 night, street said, “frankly speaking, i think the election here today belies some of the speculation that this city is as racially divided as some people say…. i got more votes out in areas of the city that people traditionally don’t expect” (fleming 2003, 1). there was some truth to street’s comment. while losing in the city’s white neighborhoods, street’s electoral performance there improved, as he picked up greater percentages of the vote in all of the city’s white neighborhoods. in 1999, katz’s margin over street in the city’s white neighborhoods had been 134,145. his margin in those same neighborhoods, four years later, was 96,366, a difference of nearly 38,000 votes. some white democrats, who had deserted street four years earlier, returned to the democratic fold. for example, street’s vote in south philadelphia increased from 22.73% to 31.35%. in the far northeast (philadelphia’s only solidly republican neighborhood), street’s vote inched up from 11.75% to 15.20% (committee of seventy 2003d). table 3 philadelphia mayoral vote by neighborhood, 1999 and 2003 (in percents) neighborhood 1999 katz 2003 katz 1999 street 2003 street south philadelphia 76.67 68.21 22.73 31.35 roxborough, chestnut hill, manayunk 75.39 68.44 24.16 31.01 center city, fairmount, university city 68.16 60.69 31.20 38.54 southwest, grays ferry, point breeze 32.37 23.00 67.15 76.73 overbrook, wynnefield, east falls 26.45 17.02 73.39 82.73 west philadelphia 8.10 4.97 91.55 94.73 kensington, fairhill, juniata park 29.04 18.07 70.27 81.68 north philadelphia 5.43 3.31 94.05 96.56 92 mt. airy, germantown, logan 13.89 7.32 85.82 92.31 oak lane, cedarbrook 13.72 8.42 85.91 91.39 port richmond, kensington, bridesburg 76.12 63.53 23.20 36.15 mayfair, frankford, holmesburg 84.32 78.83 14.32 20.88 lawncrest, rhawnhurst, oxford circle 78.19 64.05 21.20 35.69 far northeast 87.16 84.75 11.75 15.02 source: the committee of seventy. street’s dominance among minority voters was even greater than it had been four years earlier. in 1999, street’s margin of 143,226 in the city’s minority neighborhoods gave him a narrow victory over katz. four years later, street attained a plurality of 173,502 votes in philadelphia’s heavily democratic minority neighborhoods, resulting in a comfortable citywide victory for the incumbent. in west philadelphia, street’s vote increased from 91.5% to 94.7%. in north philadelphia, his share went from 94% in 1999 to 96.5% in 2003 (committee of seventy 2003d).23 another factor favoring street was that turnout in the neighborhoods where he did well increased (13,358) by more than the increase in his opponent’s strongholds (5,848). the fattah voter registration effort was probably a significant factor here. the dramatic impact of the investigation there is no question that the disclosure of the electronic listening device in the mayor’s office had a dramatic impact on the campaign. while the revelation of the investigation was consistent with katz’s characterization of street’s administration as sleazy, this “october surprise” worked against the challenger. public opinion polls already indicated that street had taken the lead, and the news of the bugging of the mayor’s office insured that the race would become a blowout. it curtailed any serious discussion of issues in the campaign. katz had contended that the measures taken by street to deal with the problems of the city’s neighborhoods had 93 failed. he also had argued that the mayor’s contentious relationship with politicians in harrisburg had hurt the city. for katz to win, he needed to convince philadelphians that street had failed as mayor. the controversy over the investigation meant that katz’s message was being overshadowed by the question of whether the probe was politically motivated. the investigation also gave street the opportunity to energize his base. the timing of the investigation, and the federal authorities’ reluctance to discuss its scope, caused many african-americans and partisan democrats to question the government’s motives. invoking the florida ballot debacle of 2000, the california recall effort, and michael bloomberg’s plan to bring nonpartisan elections to new york city, street’s supporters spread the message that the republicans would stop at nothing to win elections, and defeating mayor street was part of a republican plan to re-elect president bush in 2004. the african-american electorate, which street needed to win, turned out in larger numbers than four years earlier. it also gave him a 98% plurality, up from 94% four years earlier (fitzgerald 2003, a1). in the city’s white neighborhoods, more democratic voters stayed with the mayor than four years earlier, insuring a comfortable margin for street. this is a reflection of the intense partisanship that has gripped the national electorate since the 2000 presidential election.24 by “nationalizing” the contest, the mayor was able to win. katz may have summed up the turn of events best when, in his concession speech, he said, “this is a very strange business, and the ball bounces in very strange ways” (fleming 2003, 5). postscript on may 20, 2004, the philadelphia inquirer and philadelphia daily news reported that a delaware state court had ruled that sam katz had “fraudulently” misrepresented key information used to attract investment in a failed skating rink development project and ordered katz to repay $2.1 million to his partners. katz has appealed. on june 3, 2004, a federal grand jury returned indictments against six people for defrauding the community college of philadelphia of $224,000 in public funds by setting up an adult education program with nonexistent teachers and students, and claiming to offer classes that never took place. indicted on 94 conspiracy, mail fraud and wire fraud were faridah ali; delores weaver, director of the adult basic education program at the community college of philadelphia (ccp); weaver’s son, eugene d. weaver, iii; and ali’s children, azheem spicer and lakiha spicer. a sixth person, zaynah rasool (ali’s sister), was charged with making false statements to a grand jury. that charge was dismissed by a federal judge a month later.25 on june 29, 2004, street fundraiser, ronald white and former city treasurer corey kemp were among 12 people indicted in a 150 page indictment detailing a “pay-to-play tradition” in which campaign donors received favorable treatment on city contracts.26 street, who was not charged in the indictment, denied an assertion that he had instructed his staff to provide white with advance information about government contracts and to award contracts to firms white recommended if those firms were qualified. at the press conference announcing the june 3 indictments, u.s. attorney meehan stated, “we have a very developed, continuing investigation” (kyw 2004). kemp’s lawyer, michael mcgovern, suggested that “indications are that the government has not closed the door on higher targets” (lounsberry, 2004). on october 27, 2004, ali, her two children, and eugene weaver iii were found guilty of all 26 counts of defrauding ccp of $224,000 in public monies for adult basic education. on november 4, 2004, ronald white, died of pancreatic cancer. a day earlier, the united states justice department had released a revised indictment in which it alleged that white had convinced commerce bank to approve loans for white and his friends without standard underwriting review. kemp’s attorney, l. george parry, responded to the revised indictment by asserting his client’s innocence, stating “my defense of corey kemp is going to sound like a prosecution of mayor street” (lounsberry, fleming, and gelbart 2004). on may 9, 2005, kemp was convicted on 27 charges, including extortion, fraud, and filing false tax returns. four others were convicted with kemp: commerce bank executives glenn holck and stephen umbrell, who were found guilty of conspiracy and wire fraud; lavan hawkins was convicted for wire fraud and lying to a grand jury; and janice knight, who was found to have lied to a grand jury and to the fbi mayor street has not been implicated in any of these cases. 95 notes 1. in 1911, rudolph blankenburg, keystone-democratic candidate, defeated republican george h. earle, 134,680 to 130,185. 2. on may 13, 1985, goode ordered the police and fire departments to bomb the headquarters of a radical group known as move. the action destroyed not just move’s building but also 61 neighboring homes in philadelphia. for more on the bombing of the move headquarters, see philadelphia special investigation commission (1986), anderson and hevenor (1987), harry (1987), bowser (1989), boyette (1989), assefa (1990), and wagner-pacifici (1994). 3. the cbs news/new york times new york city mayoral election exit poll from november 1989 offers data on the effect of race on that election. see cbs news/new york times (1989). 4. los angeles, atlanta, and new orleans are all cities where white support for black incumbents increased. for a discussion of tom bradley in los angeles, see sonenshein (1993). for atlanta, see stone (1989). 5. the philadelphia vote for president in 2000 was as follows: george w. bush/dick cheney (republican) 99,234 al gore/joe lieberman (democrat) 441,834 howard phillips/j. curtis frazier (constitution) 1,859 harry browne/art olivier (libertarian) 1,221 ralph nader/winona laduke (green) 8,514 patrick j. buchanan/ezola foster (reform) 782 source: city commissioners of philadelphia. 6. the 2001 citywide election results were as follows: district attorney lynne m. abraham (democrat) 124,823 joseph n. bongiovanni iii (republican) 27,155 richard a. ash (green) 11,341 leon williams (education) 21,941 city controller jonathan a. saidel (democrat) 133,274 joseph a. gembaia (republican) 23,941 source: city commissioners of philadelphia. 7. in philadelphia, rendell received 339,697 votes; fisher received 59,223. source: city commissioners of philadelphia. 8. 42 u.s.c. 1973gg-5 (a), (b). 9. while rendell was considered to have been successful in revitalizing center city, not all of his plans were achieved. notable failures included penn’s landing and disney quest. for an account of rendell’s tenure as mayor, see bissinger (1997). 10. street and governor mark schweiker agreed to a plan whereby the ninemember board of education appointed by the mayor in march 2000 would be replaced by a school reform commission. this new commission included three appointees of the governor and two by the mayor. in april 2002, the commission decided to turn over management of the district’s 70 lowest performing schools to a number of education management organizations (emos), including edison schools and community groups. in june 2002, the commission appointed paul vallas, highly regarded for his reforms in the chicago public school system 96 (where he was the school district’s chief executive officer from 1995 to 2001), as the school district’s chief executive officer. the parking authority, created by a local ordinance in 1950, operates offstreet parking facilities, maintains on-street parking meters, and enforces parking regulations. it had long been a patronage mill for the democratic party, although republicans held a small percentage of the jobs even before the takeover. in 2001, the speaker of the state house of representatives, john perzel, orchestrated a state takeover of the agency, whereby a majority of the board of directors would be appointed by the governor. republicans now control the authority. between the time of the takeover and december 2002, the authority’s staff increased by more than 200 employees, most of whom were assumed to be republicans (barg 2002). the convention center, opened in june 1993, was plagued by mismanagement, union problems, and high labor costs that were driving convention business out of philadelphia. in 2001, perzel, with the help of representative dwight evans (an african-american democrat from philadelphia) pushed senate bill 1100 through the legislature changing the composition of the pennsylvania convention center authority board from one balanced between the two parties and between the state, the city, and the suburbs, none of which had a majority, to one controlled by republican political appointees. mayor street filed suit, claiming that the bill overhauling the authority’s management violated the state constitution because it covered more than one subject (the constitution stipulates that legislation cover one subject). in november 2003, the pennsylvania supreme court ruled against the general assembly, and ordered it to revise the legislation by february of 2004 or restore control of the authority to the previously constituted board. in february 2004, legislation was enacted (house bill 1733) turning the convention center over to a 15-member board: two philadelphia mayoral appointees (one of whom must be recommended by the hospitality industry); four appointed by the general assembly; four appointees from the philadelphia suburbs (one from each of the suburban counties: bucks, chester, delaware, and montgomery); an appointee of the philadelphia city council president; one appointee by the minority leader of the philadelphia city council; two appointed by the governor (who must be confirmed by the state senate), and a chair selected by the other fourteen members. 11. shortly before katz announced his candidacy, the group agreed to a merger with the greater philadelphia chamber of commerce. governor mark schweiker, who had not sought election after replacing homeland security secretary tom ridge as governor, was named to head the merged organization. 12. katz’s supporters raised the nepotism charge when street’s wife, naomi post, an attorney who had worked on children’s services and juvenile delinquency issues, was briefly appointed to the position of deputy managing director in the city’s social services department. after the charge was raised, post withdrew her candidacy for the position. his brother milton, a former state legislator, was consultant to a company responsible for maintenance at city hall and had made an unsuccessful attempt to take over the city’s animal control service. he later became involved with a company that successfully bid on the maintenance contract at the philadelphia international airport. 13. by contrast, street was perceived in some quarters of philadelphia’s gay and lesbian community as anti-gay. in june 1996, while city council president, street filed a court challenge against then-mayor rendell’s executive order that 97 granted domestic partnership benefits to municipal employees. at the time, street said that “taxpayer dollars should not be used to support relationships such as these that mimic traditional family relationships” (duffy 2003, 1). in 1997, street opposed gay marriage in a debate sponsored by the gay and lesbian lawyers of philadelphia. by 2003, street had become a supporter of domestic partnerships and had appointed gays and lesbians to high-ranking positions in his administration, notably alba martinez as the commissioner of the department of human services in 2000. 14. assistant city manager tumar alexander and joey temple, an employee with the recreation department, were charged with misdemeanors. alexander was suspended from his position for a week without pay for violating a philadelphia home rule charter provision that prohibits municipal employees from engaging in any political activity on behalf of a candidate. temple resigned from his position in the recreation department. in may 2004, temple was convicted of misdemeanor harassment and making terroristic threats and sentenced to two years of probation. in june 2004, alexander entered a program for first-time offenders where, following six months of unsupervised probation, his record was cleared. 15. the drive was a pilot project of the partnership for america’s families, a voter outreach organization formed following passage of the mccain-feingold campaign finance law, which prohibits the national party committees from funding voter registration campaigns. the partnership’s $12 million budget was underwritten by a number of labor unions. it had similar projects in cleveland and st. louis, cities, like philadelphia, located in what would be “battleground” states in the 2004 presidential election. 16. the sweeps were conducted every three or four months by the department’s impac unit, a division of the internal affairs bureau. one of the fbi agents who would be sent to retrieve the listening device was mark johnson, son of philadelphia police commissioner sylvester johnson. 17. during the summer of 2003, the fbi had subpoenaed records from the philadelphia school district concerning the liberty academy charter school, which had received $4 million for courses taught at the community college of philadelphia even though the school was not scheduled to open until 2004. the school had been founded by faridah ali, whose husband, shamsud-din ali, is a prominent muslim leader in philadelphia and an ally of mayor street. the fbi raided keystone information and financial services, a tax collection business with ties to ali that had received a no-bid contract from the city to collect delinquent real estate taxes. 18. in 2001, philadelphia airport services (a subsidiary of enron) hired street as a consultant. the firm successfully bid on a $13.6 million airport maintenance contract for philadelphia international airport, beating out elliottlewis corporation, which had performed maintenance at the airport for eleven years. shortly after winning the bid, street became the ceo of philadelphia airport services. in june 2003, t. milton street, jr. resigned as ceo of philadelphia airport services to form notlim service management company. notlim was then given a $1 million a year contract to make repairs and maintain baggage conveyor systems, passenger bridges, and airport buses at the airport. notlim had been designated as a disadvantaged, minority-owned company by the city’s minority business enterprise council, and philadelphia airport services 98 defended the awarding of the contract to the firm as part of their commitment to expanding minority participation. following public criticism, mayor street revoked the contract. 19. the fbi subpoenaed the financial records of mayor street, his wife, their oldest son sharif, and ronald a. white, a street advisor and fundraiser. documents were also subpoenaed from the city finance department, the city treasurer’s office, the minority business and enterprise council, the municipal board of pensions and retirement, and the philadelphia housing authority. 20. while publicly supporting street, some democrats were considering replacing him if he had been the target. among those considered potential replacement candidates were state representative dwight evans, city councilman michael nutter, and john dougherty, president of local 98 of the international brotherhood of electrical workers. 21. among the african-american mayors who have been subjected to federal investigations are bill campbell of atlanta, coleman young of detroit, and marion barry of washington, d.c. in the early 1980s, during an investigation of municipal contract fixing, the fbi bugged young’s home. while young was not convicted, a close friend, darralyn bowers (the owner of vista disposal, incorporated, the successful bidder on a sludge hauling contract) and the city water department director, charles beckham, were convicted on fraud and bribery charges. in 1992, detroit’s police chief was convicted of embezzling. young’s reaction was that “the chief was indicted because he got caught in a trap that was set for me” (swickard 1997, 1). in 2000, atlanta mayor bill campbell announced that he was being investigated as part of a corruption probe in atlanta and fulton county. a county commissioner, a county administrator, and a contractor had already pled guilty to taking or offering bribes. federal authorities refused to comment on campbell’s statement. in 1990, marion barry was convicted of drug possession. his arrest had been videotaped as part of a sting operation undertaken by federal authorities. 22. katz would eventually lose this lawsuit. 23. based on 2000 census data, i have identified the following philadelphia neighborhoods as “white” (having majority-white populations): bridesburg, center city, chestnut hill, fairmount, far northeast, frankford, holmesburg, lawncrest, manayunk, mayfair, oxford circle, port richmond, roxborough, south philadelphia, and university city. “minority” neighborhoods (more than 50% of the population is nonwhite) included: cedarbrook, east falls, fairhill, germantown, grays ferry, juniata park, logan, mt. airy, north philadelphia, oak lane, overbrook, point breeze, southwest philadelphia, west philadelphia, and wynnefield. 24. for a discussion of the polarized electorate, see ceaser and bush (2005), nelson (2005), and abramson, aldrich, and rohde (2005). 25. u.s. district court judge john p. fullam dismissed the perjury charges against rasool, concluding that it was impossible to determine whether she had intentionally lied to the grand jury or was simply confused by the prosecutor’s questions (caruso 2004). 26. the others indicted were denis carlson, an investment banker who was eventually acquitted; rhonda anderson, an attorney; the reverend frank d. mccracken, pastor of the st. james chapel church of god in reading, pennsylvania; janice renee knight, described in the indictment as white’s 99 “paramour”; glenn k. holck, the president of commerce bank pennsylvania; commerce bank regional vice president stephen m. umbrell; detroit businessman la-van hawkins; charles lecroy and anthony c. snell, former officials of the j.p. morgan bank; and jose mendoza, an employee of mccracken. mccracken agreed to plead guilty to fraud charges and a charge of tax evasion in november 2004. references abramson, paul r., john h. aldrich, and david w. rohde. 2005. change and continuity in the 2004 elections. washington, d.c.: cq press. anderson, john, and hilary hevenor. 1987. burning down the house: move and the tragedy of philadelphia. new york: norton. associated press. 2003. “fbi probe of bugged mayor unfolds.” newsday, october 27. athans, marego. 2003. “in philly, gaffes close the gap.” baltimore sun, october 3. barg, jeffrey. 2002. “space invaders.” philadelphia weekly, december 11, 31. barrett, wayne. 2000. rudy!: an investigative biography of rudolph giuliani. new york: basic books. benson, clea, cynthia burton, and jacqueline soteropoulos. 2003. “chaotic day marks end of campaign.” philadelphia inquirer, november 5. bissinger, buzz. 1997. a prayer for the city. new york: random house. bowser, charles w. 1989. let the bunker burn: the final battle with move. philadelphia: camino books. boyette, michael, with randi boyette. 1989. “let it burn!” the philadelphia tragedy. chicago: contemporary books. browning, rufus p., dale rogers marshall, and david h. tabb, eds. 2002. racial politics in american cities, 3rd ed. new york: longman. bulletin’s frontrunner. 2003. “pa: backlash against fbi investigation boosting street.” bulletin broadfaxing network, inc., november 4. ________. 2002. “katz says he wants to challenge street for philadelphia mayor.” bulletin broadfaxing network, inc., december 13. caruso, david b. “charges dismissed against one in corruption probe.” associated press, july 27. ________. 2003. “welcome to urban elections—racially split voting divides philadelphia.” commercial appeal (memphis, tn), june 29. cbs news/new york times. 1991. cbs news/new york times new york city mayoral election exit poll, november 1989. new york: cbs news. ceaser, james w., and andrew e. busch. 2005. red over blue: the 2004 elections and american politics. lanham, md: rowman and littlefield publishers. center for opinion research. 2003. september 2003 philadelphia mayoral keystone poll. lancaster: floyd institute for public policy, franklin and marshall college. clark, terry nicholls, and lorne crowley ferguson. 1983. city money. new york: columbia university press. committee of seventy. 2003a. “municipal primary election on may 20, 2003.” accessed at www.seventy.org/stats/503 results.html. 100 ________. 2003b. “the tale of the tape.” accessed at www.seventy.org /nycu/2003. ________. 2003c. “the great flood.” accessed at www.seventy.org/nycu/2003. ________. 2003d. “much anticipated sequel ends in the first scene.” accessed at www.seventy.org/nycu/2003. dao, james. 2003. “bugging case raises racial issues/philadelphia divided over devices found in mayor’s office.” houston chronicle, october 12. daughen, joseph r. 2003. “violent ending to campaigns.” philadelphia daily news, november 5. duffy, shannon p. 2003. “allocatur may boost support for street.” the legal intelligencer, october 22. einhorn, erin, and dave davies. 2003. “a bug’s-eye view of first 72 hours…and how probe helped ensure street re-election.” philadelphia daily news, november 7. fitzgerald, thomas. 2003. “street coasted to victory on back of a bug.” philadelphia inquirer, november 5. fleming, leonard n., angela couloumbis, and michael currie schaffer. 2003. “street triumphs.” philadelphia inquirer, november 5. getlin, josh. 2003. “a bug worsens the fever pitch of politics in philadelphia.” los angeles times, october 12. gibbons, thomas 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of two cities: the 1999 philadelphia mayoral election.” commonwealth 11: 71–82. ________. 2002b. “mark green and the collapse of the urban democratic coalition,’ paper presented at the american political science association annual meeting, boston, massachusetts, september. kyw-tv. 2004. “seven plead not guilty in federal indictments.” 5 a.m. to 7 a.m. newscast, june 4. levy, john m. 2000. urban america: processes and problems. upper saddle river, nj: prentice-hall. lounsberry, emille. 2004. “kemp and white face more charges in corruption probe.” accessed at www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/news/special_packages fbiprobe. 101 lounsberry, emille, leonard n. fleming, and marcia gelbart. 2004. “2 key pleas of not guilt.” accessed at www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/news /special_packages. loviglio, joann. 2003. “echoes of abscam swirl around philadelphia mayor fbi probe spurs speculation.” boston globe, october 12. meyerson, harold. 2003. “harvesting voters.” washington post, november 12. millersville university, center for politics and public affairs. 2003. “the philadelphia mayoral race: differences in black and white.” keystone poll. mollenkopf, john. 2002. “new york: still the great anomaly.” in racial politics in american cities, 3rd ed., eds. rufus p. browning, dale rogers marshall, and david h. tabb. new york: longman. national public radio. 2003. “morning edition.” october 30. nelson, michael, ed. 2005. the elections of 2004. washington, d.c.: cq press. philadelphia special investigation commission. 1986. the findings, conclusions and recommendations of the philadelphia special investigation commission. philadelphia. schamberg, kirsten. 2003. “brotherly love? not in this election; in a plain nasty contest for mayor in philadelphia, racial undertones and revelations of an fbi bug at city hall have put the campaign ‘off the charts.’” chicago tribune, october 13. siegel, harry. 2003. “the streets of philadelphia: will the mayor’s race be a dinkins–giuliani replay?” weekly standard, october 27, 13–14. smith, elmer. 2003. “the bug didn’t win election for street.” philadelphia daily news, november 7. sonenshein, ralph j. 1993. politics in black and white: race and power in los angeles. princeton: princeton university press. stone, clarence n. 1989. regime politics: governing atlanta 1946–1988. lawrence: university press of kansas. swickard, joe. 1997. “young felt targeted.” detroit free press, december 5. wagner-pacifici, robin erica. 1994. discourse and destruction: the city of philadelphia versus move. chicago: university of chicago press. book 1.indb commonwealth forum: should pennsylvania enact work requirements for medicaid recipients? yes the notion that states might place work requirements on medicaid recipients has thrown liberals into a tizzy. in attempting to point out the supposed cruelty of conservatives in adopting such a policy, those on the left call attention to the elderly and child beneficiaries who are supposed to somehow now find jobs. but these groups are not the target of work requirements, and liberals know it. the real targets of work requirements, and the only ones, are ablebodied adults who can work but do not. conservatives do not want to take health care away from grandma and babies, just make sure those who can work, do so. the phrase “work requirements” itself is rather misleading. yes, work is part of the policy proposal. but recipients of medicaid could also prove they are caring for someone else, actively seeking employment, or even volunteering. it’s not asking too much for someone to receive taxpayerfunded benefits in exchange for giving back to society. no one should be so entitled to tax-funded programs as to earn them by sitting on the couch all day. the implementation of work requirements will also help stem the growth of medicaid spending at the federal and state level. health-care costs are already the largest part of many state budgets. paying to cover the health insurance costs of able-bodied adults who choose not to work comes at the expense of further investment in central government functions like education, public safety, and infrastructure. saving taxpayers from the need to spend on the indolent will lead to smarter budgets. and in the meantime, reducing the medicaid rolls should also lead to lower premiums in the private market. calling for the imposition of work requirements on medicaid recipients is not punishing the poor. it is returning the program to its original mission of helping the disabled elderly, pregnant women, and children. no since early 2018 the centers for medicare and medicaid services (cms) has allowed states to apply for waivers to place work requirements on medicaid recipients. policy makers in pennsylvania are debating whether to apply for a waiver. advocates claim that work requirements will encourage people to find jobs that will lift them out of a cycle of dependency. realistically, work requirements would not have the desired effect. most able-bodied medicaid recipients are already working in low-wage jobs that create their eligibility for benefits. further, for many people the only accessible jobs are in hospitality, restaurants, or retail, which are often part-time or have fluctuating hours from week to week. consequently, under provisions being debated in pennsylvania, a person might be eligible for medicaid one month because the required twenty hours a week at a job was fulfilled, but then lose benefits if the hours at work dipped under that amount in ensuing months. a sizeable portion of medicaid recipients are elderly, disabled, suffer from mental illness, or are children. these populations would be exempt from the work requirement, but would be required to file time-consuming paperwork to keep their benefits. these are vulnerable groups who often lack the education and resources to deal accurately with difficult bureaucratic processes. consequently they could lose their access to health care even though they are still eligible. this would also apply to working recipients of medicaid who would have to follow an even more arduous application process to keep benefits. finally, the kaiser family foundation estimates that only 6 percent of medicaid recipients are currently not working or eligible for an exemption. however, under the cms waiver program, states may not use medicaid funding to help these individuals receive assistance in finding a job. without added expenditures from states for these services, many people will find themselves both unemployed and without health insurance. at the end of the day, providing health care saves money in the long run by dealing with health issues before they become emergencies. these advantages far outweigh the benefits of work rules that may catch a few people abusing the system. for more information the centers for medicare and medicaid services (cms) (https:// www .cms .gov) is part of the federal department of health and human services. their website has information on many different health-care issues, including the obvious medicare and medicaid. the kaiser family foundation (https:// www .kff .org) is a nonprofit focused on health care in the united states and the u.s. relation to the rest of the world on health-care topics. the pennsylvania department of health services provides information on medicaid as well as other health and wellness programs supported by the state. the department’s website also provides county-level data on programs (http:// www .dhs .pa .gov/ learnaboutdhs/ data -dashboard/ index .htm). from pennsylvania politics and policy: a commonwealth reader, volume 2. edited by michelle j. atherton and j. wesley leckrone (philadelphia, temple university press, 2019). commonwealth: a journal of pennsylvania politics and policy backmatter guidelines for submitting manuscripts commonwealth is a peer-reviewed journal founded by the pennsylvania political science association in 1987. initially named commonwealth: a journal of political science, in 2016 the publication was retitled commonwealth: a journal of pennsylvania politics and policy and began to be published by temple university press. since 2020 commonwealth is open access and available through temple university press’s website at https://tupjournals.temple. edu/index.php/commonwealth/index. commonwealth is seeking manuscripts across a broad range of topics related to the politics, policy, and political history of pennsylvania. the journal is interdisciplinary in nature, appealing to scholars and practitioners in fields such as political science, public administration, public policy, and history. commonwealth’s editorial staff, editorial review board, and referees maintain the highest standards of peer review and publication. we’re looking for the following types of content for commonwealth: ■ general articles on pennsylvania state and local government ■ multistate comparative analyses featuring pennsylvania or its regions ■ impacts of federal policies on the commonwealth ■ analyses of specific public policy issues ■ public administration and implementation politics in pennsylvania ■ pennsylvania political history ■ public law and the courts in the commonwealth ■ pennsylvania campaigns, elections, and public opinion ■ international relations with clear consequences for pennsylvania and its regions ■ innovative pedagogical pieces on teaching about pennsylvania politics and policy or local governments in the commonwealth manuscripts should be submitted via e-mail in microsoft word format. the preferred length is 15–30 double-spaced pages, including notes, references, tables, and appendices. format should follow the american political science association’s style manual for political science. for guidance, authors should consult previous issues of commonwealth, the american political science review, or the editor. additional information about submissions may be found on the temple university press website at https://tupjournals.temple.edu/index.php/commonwealth/index. commonwealth will consider proposals for reviews of texts that examine politics and policy in pennsylvania. the books’ primary focus should be on the commonwealth, its regions, or local politics in the state. we also welcome https://tupjournals.temple.edu/index.php/commonwealth/index https://tupjournals.temple.edu/index.php/commonwealth/index https://tupjournals.temple.edu/index.php/commonwealth/index dr. j. wesley leckrone department of political science widener university chester, pa 19013 phone: 610-499-4633 e mail: jwleckrone@widener.edu proposals about books that place pennsylvania in a comparative context with other states in the region or country. reviews should not be undertaken until the editor has accepted a proposal. manuscripts and book review proposals should be submitted as e-mail attachments (no paper copies) to: mailto:jwleckrone@widener.edu%7bcomp microsoft word volume 14.doc commonwealth: a journal of political science  volume 14, number 1  december 2008 special policy issue on public health  2008 ppsa/lorl, pa house of reps. issn 0890-2410 objecting to public health – stories from four pennsylvania counties dennis gallagher, ma, mpa, drexel university school of public health jennifer kolker, mph, drexel university school of public health stories from four counties this should be a very nice story to tell: most people – from the average citizen to the elected official – believe in the importance of protecting and improving the public’s health, and they also believe that where, how and when you do so really matters. yet it’s not true – not for many, and maybe most, pennsylvanians. the message that drexel university researchers often heard throughout three years of working with wonderfully committed organizations and individuals in four pennsylvania counties is that – for very many people – attending to public health locally is at best unimportant and wasteful, and, at worst, threatening. one of the national goals for improving the health and quality of life of all americans is to ensure that all public health agencies – including local ones – have the infrastructure to provide essential services effectively (u.s. department of health and human services, healthy people 2010). why? first, there are environmental threats: natural disasters (floods included) and man-made ones (bioterrorism especially) that would require direct, local, “hands-on” intervention; and many causes and sources of air, water, and ground contamination. second, there are existing, and potentially catastrophic, threats of disease epidemics. third, there are many behavioral risk factors, such as smoking, poor diet, physical inactivity, and excessive drinking, that are linked to the leading causes of death in the united states. confronting these behavioral risk factors through health education and promotion, and 84 objecting to public health – stories from four pennsylvania counties using preventive health measures like hypertension screening, can substantially reduce the rates of serious disease and death in the united states population (chowdhury et al. 2007). public awareness and knowledge of these risks, and concerted action to deal with them, does vary substantially by state and locality – often owing to the depth and quality of public health agency presence at the local level. the reasons why the public should favor more local public health presence in pennsylvania are easy to enumerate. the math alone is simple: 67 counties, six countywide health departments, and four multifunctional municipal ones in four other counties. as the readers of this journal likely know well, the remaining 57 counties rely mostly on the pennsylvania department of health to provide public health services through a network of regional offices and small county-based health centers. the national picture is different. the united states has more than 3,000 county and city health departments and more than 3,000 local boards of health (national association of county and city health officials 2006). in the majority of states, most local public health work is done at a county level because prevention and protection are most often best done at this level. from october 2004 through december 2007, faculty from the drexel university school of public health (drexel) collected information from and about the residents of four of the counties without a countywide health department. drexel conducted four separate studies to assess ways to enhance local public health services, including the feasibility of establishing county health departments, in lancaster, york, berks and dauphin counties – which we will refer to as “the four counties.” in important ways, the four counties are similar. they are, respectively, the 6th, 8th, 9th, and 15th most populous counties in pennsylvania. they each have a large rural population, but each has a central city (also the county seat) that is a service hub for the county. the central city in each – lancaster, york, reading, and harrisburg – is both the most populace place and the locus of many of the most pressing public health concerns in the county. each of the four counties has important environmental health concerns related to water and air quality, ground contamination, and lead poisoning. age adjusted death rates for cancer, diabetes, and stroke in each of the four counties exceed both the average rates for pennsylvania dennis gallagher and jennifer kolker 85 as a whole and the goals of healthy people 2010. drexel’s research of primary data sources affirmed that concerns about chronic disease and the lack of accessible prevention and treatment services in the four counties are serious issues. for example, in the most recent study, in berks county, more than 60% of the persons who completed a survey cited the following areas of unmet need: access to health care via health insurance and support services; oral health education and access to dental care; nutrition education and counseling; and mental health education and treatment services. these are all significant health service needs – population based needs – now going unmet or receiving inadequate attention and resources in berks county. findings in the other counties were not very different. in short, improving the health of the four counties’ residents needs more attention than it has received via the current configuration of public health in pennsylvania. we, like many in the field of public health, believe that the attention can be provided best if it were provided locally. the methods that drexel used to collect and analyze information via targeted surveys, interviews with key informants, and common data sources evolved over time, but there were several elements common to each study. each had five major components: 1) the analysis of programmatic needs and service gaps, community interest and support, from primary data sources; 2) the analysis of health status data and reports from secondary sources; 3) an assessment of programmatic activities, organizational structure, and financing in selected county health departments in pennsylvania and maryland; 4) the analysis of potential operational costs and revenues of a new countywide health department; and 5) the identification of next steps to build support for acting on the study findings and recommendations. (in the dauphin and berks county studies, drexel also considered the technical and financial feasibility of non-governmental approaches to enhancing public health.) the methodology proved to be an effective way to identify key public health needs, to elicit the views of persons in the best position overall to comment on public health deficits in each county, and to present the research findings in a straightforward way. in many instances, the findings from the surveys and interviews were consistent with information drexel collected from public data sources. in some instances, however, the findings – the perceptions of problems and issues vs. the public health “record” – were contradictory or 86 objecting to public health – stories from four pennsylvania counties disconnected. sometimes the data pointed to issues that have not yet been realized by the people at large – even by the one hundred (or more) key informants that drexel targeted in its research in each county. in many instances, there is simply not enough information to know if issues raised in interviews and surveys are valid. this in and of itself points to a need for greater capacity for public health related data collection and disease investigation at the local level. four themes emerged from drexel’s research. first, access to personal health care and management of chronic disease are significant issues facing the residents of the four counties. many residents have no regular health care provider, and residents of these counties fare worse than their counterparts in other parts of the commonwealth on many health issues (as is clear from department of health data). there are significant disparities in health access and status by race/ethnicity as well as geography, with residents in the central city in each county and the far rural areas of the counties facing the greatest challenges. there are some areas of core public health, e.g., tuberculosis, stds, lead poisoning, which may not be getting the resources or attention necessary to truly understand, prevent, and treat. second, environmental health is a key issue for many, and the concerns expressed during the studies are in this instance supported by public data sources. for example, berks county ranks poorly in assessments of air pollution and lead, and there are concerns about industrial environmental hazards and potential cancer clusters. radon levels in berks county are higher than in other parts of pennsylvania, and lyme disease is a critical issue, with rates second highest in the commonwealth. the environmental health experience in the other three counties studied is similarly worrisome. third, public health epidemiology and investigation resources are insufficient to meet any of the four county’s needs. too often, the data are not available to pursue or confirm the validity of health concerns raised by individuals and groups – and there is no readily available agent to collect that data and investigate in a timely and effective way. for example, hepatitis c was cited in berks county as a major issue in the interviews and surveys of key informants, but the data on county prevalence of the disease are limited. this points to a major gap in public health epidemiology and data collection. it also points to the need for an dennis gallagher and jennifer kolker 87 agency focused specifically on the county’s experience to determine whether or not there is a true public health problem in the county. issues raised over cancer clusters and health impacts of environmental hazards would similarly benefit from a more locally focused and more expansive public health approach. fourth, coordination of health services and leadership for public health is lacking within each of the four counties. despite all the services that are available from the pennsylvania department of health – and there are many – and from the many private agencies doing the business of public health, there is no one, clear, organizing body or focal point for public health activities, no “go to” place in any of the four counties. in each of the four counties, one organization or a network of like-minded organizations has stepped in to try to make up for this deficit. in lancaster county, it is the united way of lancaster county and the partnership for a county health department. in york county, it is the healthy york network, a component of the broader initiative, york counts. in berks county, it is the berks county community foundation. in dauphin county, it is the state health improvement partnership (ship). these organizations and coalitions have helped to focus activity and attention on the public’s health within the respective counties; but they are not public health agencies. because no county government agency has this responsibility, there is no clear authority or public accountability at the county level. public health authority and accountability at the county level is the norm in most places in this country, but, as we have noted, not in pennsylvania. by any accounting, each of the four counties has a rich, though loosely tied, public health infrastructure. yet the services, both public and private, to promote and protect the health of the residents are not available equally everywhere in these counties, nor in some cases, sufficiently. the public health services provided by the pennsylvania department of health are significant assets. but the professional staff resources and public health programs available to the residents of the four counties are significantly fewer than those available, for example, to the residents of the six pennsylvania counties with countywide health departments. to gauge the contrast of the four counties’ experience with the scope and scale of local public health department activity in counties with 88 objecting to public health – stories from four pennsylvania counties health departments, drexel interviewed and collected information from the pennsylvania department of health’s southcentral and southeast district office staff and carefully analyzed the annual program plans of montgomery, chester, and erie counties, and of the cities of allentown and york. what drexel found are public health program activities in these localities that go far beyond the services that the pennsylvania department of health is able to provide locally. when drexel began its first study, in lancaster county, in october 2004, we expected to find compelling evidence why having a county health department to protect a population of almost 500,000 residents made good sense. the needs to assure access to personal health services for disadvantaged persons, to investigate and ameliorate environmental hazards, and to prepare for and respond to emergencies are certainly clear – to everyone connected to the public health world, even indirectly. yet this story does not sell well. it has not been sold to the majority of pennsylvanians, ever. and it has not been sold, yet, in lancaster county or in the other three counties we studied. an important but neglected reason is that the objection to public health as a local government undertaking has a firm and – maybe – impregnable basis. that may not have always been so; but after several decades of public sentiment largely – and sometimes aggressively – opposed to government programs and taxes, it certainly is the true story for many residents in the four counties. the contrarian viewpoint despite clear and strong evidence for why more local attention to public health would benefit the residents of the four counties, the reaction to the idea of creating a county health department, or otherwise expanding public health services, has often been negative. the reasons fall into three general categories. the primary one is the deep and abiding fear of an additional tax burden, in the future if not also the present. a second objection is a libertarian objection to the expanded, intrusive presence of government in “private” business matters, and associated concerns about service duplication, inefficiency, and waste. a third is the failure to explain why a government public health agency has any real value at all since no crisis exists and no harm from the absence of one can be convincingly shown. dennis gallagher and jennifer kolker 89 first, the fear of taxes. what is the money angle behind all this? – a question that so many wanted to raise. in fact, the fear of new taxes and expanded government spending seemed to live independently from any reality, and seemed deaf to any meaningful answer that might be offered. drexel presented several organizational and financial models for each study. the models described county health departments ranging in staff size from 32 to 73, and in annual operating costs and revenue from $5 million to $8.3 million. the variation was driven fairly equally by size of population and what might loosely be called “political feasibility.” support for creating a county health department, based on surveys that drexel distributed, varied among the four counties: 46%, 53%, 66%, and 69%. in those same counties, in the same order, the following percentages of respondents were undecided about whether or not to support creating a health department: 40%, 45%, 30%, and 22%. yet the percentage of survey respondents who said that they opposed creating a county health department was very small, ranging from only 2% to 9%. in one sense, these data make a reasonably encouraging case for creating county health departments. but the drexel surveys were targeted to key informants – persons and organizations which would best understand the domain of public health. so we expected to see both understanding of the key issues confronting the county in question, and appreciation for the utility of a local government response to the county’s public health needs. in that sense, the support shown by the respondents is less encouraging than one might expect – at least for two of the four counties. the prime reason why so many were undecided is very straightforward: a concern for what it might cost county taxpayers. for the county where interest in expanding public health services seemed the least (46% support), the scope and scale of county health department activity we modeled was kept small (52 staff and $5 million in operating costs and revenue). for the county where interest in expanding public health seemed the highest (69%), the health department model we developed called for a much larger organization (72 staff and $8.3 million in operating costs and revenue). the amount of local tax contribution to the total annual operating budget varied significantly as well, from $150,000 to $826,000 – depending on the level of support reported on the surveys and elicited via interviews (markers of “political feasibility”) more than any other variable. finally, the per capita annual local contribution – a direct draw from county tax revenue – also varied 90 objecting to public health – stories from four pennsylvania counties substantially by county: $0.30, $1.00, $1.50, and $2.00. by any calculus, these amounts are quite small – and ridiculously so given what this small investment might buy in prevention, protection, and treatment. drexel offered financial models that showed how reliance on local funding sources – taxes and fees combined – could be kept quite modest, in contrast to the national experience, and even more modest than is the case in the pennsylvania counties with health departments. the opportunity to fund operations through effective use of grants (under pennsylvania acts 315, 12, and 537, and various categorical programs) is very real, and very significant. the table below shows national and pennsylvania revenues by sources for county health departments, and contrasts that with the revenues that drexel estimated for the four counties it studied, assuming that each would in fact establish a county health department (national association of county and city health officials 2006). table 1 county health department revenue: all sources (percentage of total) national pennsylvania the four counties federal and state grants 36% 67% 77% local sources 47% 23% 19% other support 17% 10% 4% what we heard, though, was a recurring drumbeat of worries. what will it cost? we answered: much less than you think, and we showed how much. how much more will it cost in the future? we answered: no more than the commissioners and citizens of the county choose. what if the state cuts its financial support? we answered: it has not happened since the law enabling the creation of county health departments was enacted in 1951. will we end up paying what the taxpayers in, for example, chester county have to pay for their county health department – which started small but has grown to cost $11 million per year, with the county paying $1.6 million annually from county taxes (chester county health department program plan 2007)? we answered, again: not if you don’t choose to do so. how will restaurants afford the dennis gallagher and jennifer kolker 91 licensing fees, and won’t we have to pay more for the food we eat there? we answered: on average, food establishments would be expected to pay less than $200 per year in licensure if they met the county’s health code standards. we suggested that $200 per year per establishment would not have a noticeable effect on any one person’s food bill. and along go the many questions about money. the frustrating part of the process is not the many questions that are posed. the frustrating part is that so many people seem to reject the credibility of the answers, even though there are four county health departments (bucks, chester, montgomery, and erie) and four municipal health departments (allentown, bethlehem, wilkes-barre, and york) which, if studied, will confirm the logic and realism of the answers. perhaps the contrarian view is so deeply set in the four counties we studied – and throughout the country – that any not unpleasant answer about taxes and government spending must be seen as lacking in credibility. the second objection to enhancing public health services, especially through a county government approach, is related to the first, but it is broader. it is an objection to an expanded, intrusive presence of government in “private” business matters. it is closely associated with concerns about service duplication, government inefficiency, and waste. one commentator said: “the (existing private) agencies cover everything that needs to be done; we don’t want duplication of services” (drexel university school of public health 2007). another said: “companies are engaged in wellness programs (disease prevention, obesity, and smoking cessation) which fill the needs” (drexel 2007). and another said: “i am a service provider and i am concerned that if a county health department were created, it could hurt the level of services that agencies like mine provide. if money goes to the county health department instead of to these agencies, the agencies might not be able to survive” (drexel 2007). this point of view, correct or not, is based on a suspicion of government itself. this distrust seems to go deep. we sensed – and sometimes were told – that a county health department would certainly find public health problems, like lead and groundwater contamination. if the county looked and found such things, property owners and businesses would be forced to fix the problems. the focus then becomes fixed upon enforcement by a hypothetically nosey, arrogant, untrustworthy county agency, not on the threat to public health and safety. we tried to make 92 objecting to public health – stories from four pennsylvania counties the case that enhancing local public health was about protecting little children, not building big government. but the suspicion remained. we recommended in one study that a concerted effort be made to develop relationships with the region’s major businesses based on the business interest in having a supply of healthy workers in the community. we referenced a recent article from health affairs by paul simon and jonathan fielding entitled “public health and business: a partnership that makes cents.” the authors make a strong case. “businesses should have a financial interest in supporting organized public health efforts, and collaborative efforts can increase the reach and effectiveness of public health” (simon and fielding 2006). we saw this “business case” as one way of confronting an innate anti-government bias on the part of many. we heard this bias expressed about restaurant inspections, in particular. owners we interviewed objected to having to comply with new codes and county inspectors. that is not surprising. but some citizens – even some commissioners – who are connected to restaurants only as patrons also objected to more frequent and more comprehensive restaurant inspections. the general view is that food service establishments that are unclean and unsafe will not be patronized. the corollary, we must suppose, is that popularity (in the view of some, maybe many) is an empirical assurance of safe and sanitary food handling. as one commentator from york county noted: “have we had outbreaks of food poisoning linked to restaurants that the media has failed to report?” (dunn 2006). of course, the answer might well be: who knows? yet we were told bluntly on several occasions that county government should not get into the business of food service inspections, period. this seemed especially shortsighted for communities that depended economically on tourism and, in turn, on their reputations as inviting, safe places to visit – and in which to eat. the last major objection is the lack of hard, local evidence to demonstrate why and how a government public health agency has any real value at all. if no crisis exists, then no harm from the absence of one can be shown. it is as though no local police are needed because no crimes are being committed. no local fire department is needed because no homes or businesses are on fire. of all the objections, this is the hardest to overcome because there are no numbers, no symbols, no dennis gallagher and jennifer kolker 93 stories that make a compelling case for more public health at the local level when there is no sense of an actual or looming threat. as one commentator said, “i travel all over the county and have heard nothing about the need for public health services of any kind” (drexel 2007). playing into this last objection is the urban-rural divide in each of the four counties. the health and social problems in lancaster, the cities of york, reading, and harrisburg, are viewed by many as the problems of the poor and minorities only. the deep divides along racial and socioeconomic lines, embodied geographically in the differences among those cities and the surrounding suburbs, outlying towns, and rural communities, constitute a psychological firewall for many of the majority population. that’s a harrisburg problem, or a reading problem. we often heard that. the logic is that there is no public health threat in the county if the threat is contained within the poor populations of the central cities. and so there is no need for a county health department that taxpayers outside those cities need to support. as one cogent commentator in york county noted, “the idea of a county health department has been around for at least 40 years. it never gained any significant support in the past, probably because no significant need was ever identified” (dunn 2006). that commentator went on to say that the need for more effective immunization programs was not demonstrated because there have been no “disease outbreaks resulting from the lack of such programs” (dunn 2006). this commentator was not expressing an anti-government bias. he noted that “over the past 40 years … highly successful county programs have come into being. these include planning, solid waste disposal, parks and recreation. in all of these cases, unmet needs were (first) identified” (dunn 2006) – and so county government intervention was warranted. not so with and for public health – precisely because its value lies preeminently in its prevention ethos. if you do not envision prevention as an unmet local need, you will not buy into the idea that local public health matters. confounding the contrarians – can it be done? in the four studies that drexel completed, we tried to assess how much – and how little – local conditions affect the perceptions of both 94 objecting to public health – stories from four pennsylvania counties public health needs and the opportunities for enhancing county-based and countywide programs. public health issues for residents of lancaster county bear a resemblance to the issues for residents of berks county, for example. issues facing the residents of the four central cities are very similar – all connected to racial and ethnic health disparities, and poverty. issues of remoteness and too few health and social services facing residents in the northwest and southeast communities of york county are not unlike those facing residents of southeastern lancaster county and upper dauphin county. the stories from the four counties sound similar, but they are still different enough to help make the case for why public health is best understood within a very local context. the politics are different. the health care organizations interested in – even committed to – local public health are focused on the specific needs of their surrounding community. the key to answering the contrarian views is to know in fine detail the unique features of the issues faced by the different communities. that is something that only local people, local institutions, local collaborations can undertake. from a distance, drexel offered several generic but very real reasons for why the stakeholders in the four counties should build a more effective local public health presence. creating a county health department, for example, would have several tangible benefits. it could bring into each of the four counties more than $1 million in additional state categorical grants, and more than $2 million of acts 315/12/537 state grant support to benefit county residents. put another way, each of those four counties annually foregoes more than $3 million that could go directly to public health programs targeted to the needs of the residents if it does not create a county health department. creating a county health department would also likely ensure:  more effective standards setting and consistency in overseeing public health matters (communicable disease surveillance, disease prevention, inspection, and licensure of food service establishments, environmental health, etc.).  more effective county-wide coordination of public health related services, by municipalities, school districts, hospitals, and other nonprofit private agencies. dennis gallagher and jennifer kolker 95  more effective local control and priority setting through more effective leadership of health-related matters at the county level. but one final question always remains: if having a county health department is such a great idea, why have so few pennsylvania counties established one – especially since act 315 was passed in 1951 to do just that? there are likely several answers, all of which make the argument for why there should be more local public health presence in pennsylvania a particularly hard one to win. few in pennsylvania really understand or care about public health, unlike in maryland, new york, michigan, north carolina – and many other places throughout the united states. there are several possible reasons. first, medical schools and hospitals dominate the health world in pennsylvania. perhaps, in turn, because of this institutional medical dominance, except for the university of pittsburgh, there have been no schools in pennsylvania devoted to studying public health and encouraging its expansion, until the drexel school of public health was established a decade ago. second, as we described above, there really is an abiding fear about government intrusion in private and business matters, and the costs associated with that intrusiveness. this is especially so in the less urbanized parts of pennsylvania – meaning, most of it. third, we have been relatively lucky in terms of avoiding food borne and communicable disease outbreaks. it might also be that outbreaks are undercounted precisely because there is no consistently designated authority who the public knows to contact when a food borne illness occurs. in either case, there is insufficient regard and caution in the public mentality about such threats – and about the associated risks we then bear in having inadequate inspection, surveillance, and response systems. the last point is important because if that changes, all of the contrarian arguments could be overcome. for similar, but less urgent and scary reasons, that is how the montgomery county health department got started: concern (among a few committed doctors at first) about responding to lyme disease, rabies, and hiv/aids – at a critical, challenging point in time, 1989-1991. that fear or concern can be enough of a tipping agent to change the balance. anyone promoting an 96 objecting to public health – stories from four pennsylvania counties enhanced local public health presence needs to be mindful of that. but prevention is a hard sell, and until recently, so was preparedness. we must also acknowledge that “selling” the need for more local public health presence is compromised by our inability to make a sure case for how and why a county health department improves the population’s health in a clearly demonstrable way. it’s what we call the “it’s a wonderful life” test. if the “xyz” county health department did not exist, could we clearly see how the population’s health would be dramatically worse off? can anyone really show what the precise effect a county health department has on a population’s health – in the same way that george bailey was shown how his life mattered so much to so many in bedford falls? we asked that question, informally, of persons who work in county health departments, and we were given fine, but modest answers. none of the answers were so dramatic that they would “make the sale” for local public health to a community full of committed contrarians – not in our view. at the end of the day, selling public health at the local level must be built upon, and carried along by, some authentic and pointed message of prevention and protection – just like the need for more local police is promoted. it must be a message about being closer geographically, about knowing the community intimately, and the community knowing where it can turn for help. it’s likely the only way to confound – if not silence or convince – the public health contrarians who reside throughout pennsylvania, both average citizens and elected officials. references chester county health department program plan 2007-2009. chowdhury, pranesh p., lina balluz, wilmon murphy, xiao-jun wen, yuna zhong, catherine okoro, bill bartoli, bill garvin, machell town, wayne giles, and ali mokdad. “surveillance of certain health behaviors among states and selected local areas.” mmwr, may 11, 2007/56(ss04); 1-160. drexel university school of public health, health department feasibility study: berks county, pennsylvania, december 2007. dunn, jack. “do we really need a county health department,” york daily record, 1 january 2006. national association of county and city health officials. 2006. 2005 national profile of local health departments. dennis gallagher and jennifer kolker 97 simon, paul a. and jonathan e. fielding. 2006. “public health and business: a partnership that makes cents,” health affairs, 25, 4, 1029. u.s. department of health and human services, healthy people 2010. commonwealth: a journal of political science  volume 14, number 1  december 2008 special policy issue on public health  2008 ppsa/lorl, pa house of reps. issn 0890-2410 microsoft word volume15.doc commonwealth: a journal of political science  volume 15, number 2  september 2009  2009 ppsa/lorl, pa house of reps. issn 0890-2410 judicial selection and the underrepresentation of women on the pennsylvania courts of common pleas heather frederick1 slippery rock university this article explores several factors affecting the representation of women on pennsylvania’s courts of common pleas. first, it considers whether women are underrepresented as judges on these courts. second, it investigates whether women are more likely to become judges on these courts through partisan election or through gubernatorial appointment. third, it examines whether democratic governors are more likely than their republican counterparts to appoint female judges to these courts. the article concludes that even though little gender bias is attributable to the method of selecting judges for the courts of common pleas, women are nonetheless greatly underrepresented as judges on this level of the pennsylvania judiciary. the striking difference between the number of women in the pennsylvania bar and the number of female judges on the state’s courts of common pleas also indicates that women have not achieved parity on the bench and that the size of the eligibility pool is not necessarily a valid explanatory factor. n 2008, the nation witnessed the first competitive female candidate for the democratic party’s presidential nomination and the first female vice presidential nominee for the republican party. yet, media coverage and public discourse during the campaign made little mention of the underrepresentation of women in public office. even when political scientists address the barriers to female representation, their research focuses mostly on legislative or executive office. in fact, “only when supreme court vacancies open is there public dialogue on the feasibility of appointing women” (tolchin 1977, 877). although tolchin wrote these words in the late 1970s, as recently as 2007 ruth bader ginsberg expressed concern over being the sole female justice on the u.s. supreme court. the 1970s brought the first organized movement by feminist organizations to increase the number of women on the bench when groups such as the national organization for women and the i 16 judicial selection and the underrepresentation of women on the pennsylvania courts of common pleas national women’s political caucus lobbied president jimmy carter to appoint a woman to the u.s. supreme court—an opportunity he never received (kenney 2004, 98; resnik 1996). building upon existing literature concerning barriers to the representation of women in political institutions, this article examines their representation as judges on the pennsylvania courts of common pleas. the underrepresentation of women in pennsylvania’s judicial system the unified judicial system, created under pennsylvania’s 1968 constitution, revised the state’s method of judicial recruitment by requiring state judges to run for office in municipal elections. under section 13b of the state charter, vacancies on the bench are filled by gubernatorial appointment, subject to the “advice and consent of twothirds of the members elected to the senate.” once their appointed or elected terms have expired, judges may seek to renew their positions through retention elections. retention elections require merely a “yes” or “no” vote from the electorate in a judicial district; no opposition candidates appear on the ballot. in 2003, the pennsylvania supreme court’s commission on racial and gender bias published its justice system report, which expressed concern over the denial of equal rights for women and racial minorities within the state’s justice system. although the report addressed issues of justice and equality for individuals within the judicial system as victims and attorneys, it did not mention women’s participation, representation, or experiences as judges. as the report concluded: the committee has recommended that all court personnel throughout the commonwealth receive training in matters such as civility in the courtroom; cultural diversity and its effect upon treatment in the courtroom; what constitutes or can be perceived to constitute racial-, ethnicand gender-biased language and conduct; the effect of bias on determinations of credibility and confidence; and the stereotypes and cultural impediments that inhibit minorities, persons of different ethnic backgrounds and women from having confidence in and using the state’s judicial system (marks, liebenberg, and goodman 2004, 7). heather frederick 17 in addition to discussing whether women and racial minorities believe they have equal access to pennsylvania’s judicial system and that it treats them fairly, the report asserted that existing behavior within the system “compromises the ability of minority and women attorneys to advocate effectively for their clients” (marks, liebenberg, and goodman 2004, 6). it noted too that “disrespectful and biased conduct and attitudes have a serious negative impact on the administration of justice and the public’s confidence in the justice system” (marks, liebenberg, and goodman 2004, 6). the report made no recommendation for rectifying these problems, however, other than advocating sensitivity training. there was no suggestion that a more diverse pennsylvania bench, one that includes representative numbers of women and persons of color, would improve the justice system for all citizens in the commonwealth. the existing literature on female judges does not extend to pennsylvania, nor does the existing literature on pennsylvania judges analyze women on the bench. the underrepresentation of female judges on the courts of common pleas may reflect the underrepresentation of women in virtually every aspect of public life in pennsylvania, which ranks forty-fourth among the states in women’s representation in elected and appointed office (pennsylvania center for women, politics, and public policy 2008). inadequate representation of women in public office adversely affects policymaking efforts to aid women in pennsylvania. according to the pennsylvania center for women, politics, and public policy (2008), “studies have given the state average to failing grades in policy affecting women from working conditions and wages, to support for education and health for women.” the literature on female judicial representation increasing the number of female judges in the pennsylvania judiciary may translate into substantially less courtroom bias against female lawyers, female litigants, and female victims while increasing the legitimacy of the state’s justice system in the eyes of its citizens. previous studies of multiple levels of courts and multiple state courts have shown that female jurists make a difference in the application of justice. female judges tend to be more supportive of women’s rights issues, even when their political ideology is included as a control variable (allen and wall 1987; cook 1981, 1988; crowe 2000; davis, 18 judicial selection and the underrepresentation of women on the pennsylvania courts of common pleas haire, and songer 1993; kuerstein and manning 2000; martin 1990; songer, davis, and haire 1994; but see also segal 2000; walker and barrow 1985). female judges are also more likely to believe that gender is pertinent in some instances, whereas male lawyers and judges “report that gender has little or no effect, in courtroom or in law firm, on process or on outcome” (resnik 1996, 963). female judges, regardless of their political ideology, are more likely than male judges to support women bringing sex discrimination claims (moyer 2008; segal diascro 2008), and they are also more likely to hear such cases (abrahamson 1993; angel 1991; bowman 1998–99; palmer 2001a, 89; schafran 1985). “moreover, even a single woman justice may have a noticeable impact on case outcomes; the mere presence of a woman on the bench is one of the best predictors of decisions in favor of women filing sexdiscrimination claims (gyrski, main, and dixon 1986; o’connor and segal 1990)” (palmer 2001b, 237). nevertheless, there is scant support for the claim that increasing the number of female judges would transform the justice system from an adversarial, zero-sum game into a cooperative paradise characterized by a “feminine style” of leadership inherently able to resolve conflict and mediate differences (behuniak-long 1992, 427). scholars have found little connection between the presence of female judges on a court and a carol gilligan-like “difference jurisprudence” (davis 1992–93, 171; finley 1989; gilligan 1982; karst 1984; menkel-meadow 1985; palmer 2001b, 237; sherry 1986). two recent studies, however, found noticeable gender differences between male and female judges. segal diascro (2008, 8) concluded that when women are plaintiffs in employment discrimination cases in federal district courts, “gender does account for differences in judicial rulings.” segal diascro’s findings suggest that empathy may play an integral role in such cases. “female judges vote in support of female plaintiffs more often than [do] their male colleagues because they feel and understand the plight of these women in these cases” (segal diascro 2008, 8). moyer (2008, 27) applied the “difference jurisprudence” theory to civil rights cases in the u.s. courts of appeals and found that female judges are more likely to exhibit their differences when other female judges are present on the panel. “as the proportion of possible mixed panels increases in a circuit, so does the propensity of female judges to support the position of civil rights plaintiffs” (moyer 2008, 27). heather frederick 19 in contrast to research showing the positive effects of female judges, some literature underscores the need for gender balance in the judiciary as a means of combating sexism and sex-based stereotypes. “one study that focused exclusively on evaluations of women judges found that male lawyers perceived women judges as inferior to male judges on every measure used (sterling 1993)” (resnik 1996, 971). women also report bias in judicial selection. for instance, one female lawyer being interviewed by a male legislator for a judicial position in virginia insisted that he apologize for using “the term ‘femi-nazi’ during the interview, for asking her about her opinion on abortion and for allegedly implying she should contribute to republicans” (minium 2007). not surprisingly, female lawyers and judges have consistently used the term “old-boys’ network” in characterizing both the state and federal courts (burleigh 1990; kenney 2004, 99). the problem of majority-male judicial systems male domination of judicial systems not only excludes “women’s perspectives” (kenney 2004, 100–101), but it also lends credence to the argument that the “old boys’ network” is “to blame for women’s underrepresentation at all levels of the legal profession. the small number of women judges . . . undermines public confidence in the judiciary” (kenney 2004, 99). judicial rulings would be deemed more legitimate if the bench reflected the demographic structure of society. the inclusion of historically unrepresented groups within the judicial system fosters descriptive representation and thus the public belief that law and justice are fair, democratic, and unbiased. as the state of georgia has noted regarding gender bias in its own judicial system: determining whether and how gender bias affects the selection of judges is fundamental to the evaluation of gender bias in the judicial system. public belief that the judiciary is unbiased is essential to the effective and orderly functioning of the court system and to the authority the judiciary exercises over society. ultimately, the public perception of fairness is critical if the judicial system is to function at all (commission on gender bias in the judicial system 1992, 7). the idea that justice is blind and that the personal characteristics and experiences of individual judges have no effect on rulings, judgments, or 20 judicial selection and the underrepresentation of women on the pennsylvania courts of common pleas viewpoints is untenable. in order for the justice system and the judiciary to be perceived by citizens as impartial, fair, and unbiased, judicial selection systems must contain no gender discrimination, either covert or overt. to assess whether women have equal opportunity to achieve a position on pennsylvania’s courts of common pleas, it is useful to see what other states, municipalities, and nations have concluded about their own systems. the state of georgia noted in a task force report that, “a judiciary equally open to women and men is essential in achieving justice for the community. it is crucial to remove obstacles to equal opportunity for women attorneys to ascend to the bench” (commission on gender bias in the judicial system 1992, 768). as the report concluded: discrimination on the basis of sex (although perhaps unintentional) is pervasive in the judicial appointment and election processes in georgia. some women lawyers have been denied equal opportunity to judicial appointments by a system which results in token appointments. some male lawyers have been antagonistic to the efforts of women candidates to be elevated to the bench (commission on gender bias in the judicial system 1992, 769). research on female judges in the district of columbia found that stereotypes and assumptions based on gender and other distinguishing characteristics affect courtroom interactions. for example, when asked if a federal judge had questioned their status as lawyers or assumed that they were not lawyers, 1% of the white male lawyers responding to a survey of the federal courts within the district of columbia responded affirmatively, whereas about 10% of the white female lawyers and the male lawyers of color said that they had that experience. in contrast, about a third of the women lawyers of color reported that a judge had questioned their status as lawyers (resnik 1996, 957). similarly, a study by the office of court administration and the state bar of texas (1998) revealed that male and female attorneys perceive gender bias from the bench very differently. only 14% of women attorneys believed courts treat males and females the same compared with 44% of male attorneys. moreover, 30% of judges and almost half of court staff thought women were underrepresented as judges in texas. the georgia study likewise noted that “considering the number of qualified women eligible for judicial appointment, the number heather frederick 21 of women who have ascended to the bench (by appointment or by election) demonstrates serious underinclusion—a phenomenon which may result from gender bias” (commission on gender bias in the judicial system 1992, 768). abroad, women’s groups in great britain have fought for equal representation in european courts (kenney 2002). the british women’s movement has demanded more female judges in the judiciary (frey 2003; jenness 1995; kenney 2004, 89; mccann 1994; spees 2003), and it has argued in court for “a gender-representative bench, applying international treaties mandating gender balance in decision making and equality for women to the composition of the judiciary and challenging the legitimacy of decisions on gender sensitive issues made by an all male panel” (kenney 2004, 90). although these efforts were ultimately unsuccessful in court, a dialogue emerged concerning the underrepresentation of women in every aspect of british government. why women are underrepresented incumbency is one explanation for the paucity of women on the bench. in many states, including pennsylvania and georgia, judges are not term-limited but may be reelected in a merit retention election. “this provision was designed to remove judges from the pressures of the political arena once they begin their first terms of office” (pennsylvania’s unified judicial system 2008). the benefits of incumbency for sitting judges, most of whom are men, exacerbate the problems women have ascending to the state bench by diminishing their opportunities to campaign for or be appointed to a judicial post. another reason for the underinclusion of women on the bench is tokenism. the focus of most research concerning female judges has been on their status as tokens (kanter 1977; palmer 2001b, 235; yoder 1991). the presence of one female judge on state supreme courts significantly lowers the possibility of another woman being elected or selected to fill subsequent vacancies, especially in states that use the appointment method of judicial selection (bratton and spill 2000; palmer 2001a, 94). “for those who are responsible for appointing state judiciaries, the problem of gender diversification is evidently ‘solved’ by the addition of a single woman (bratton and spill 2000, 16)” (palmer 2001a, 94). this effect has been shown to occur on the federal courts as well. president 22 judicial selection and the underrepresentation of women on the pennsylvania courts of common pleas clinton “faced increasing resistance to his judicial appointees” (goldman and slotnick 1997; hartley and holmes 1997; palmer 2001a, 94). separate studies by the citizens for independent courts and the usa today found that the senate took an average of five months to act on clinton’s male nominees for the federal bench but an average of eight months to act on his female nominees for the same types of positions (biskupic 2000). to palmer (2001a), “this suggests that numerical gains by women in the judiciary are not linear or constant. they can actually create a certain amount of backlash” (94). like incumbency, tokenism as a barrier to women’s representation exists on all levels and throughout all branches of government in the united states. a third possible cause of the underrepresentation of women in public office is that there are fewer women than men in the “pipeline” or “eligibility pool” from which candidates are chosen for higher office, regardless of whether those doing the choosing are political elites or average voters. as one scholar explains: in the american electoral arena, there is a hierarchy of political officials. in other words, the typical career path for politicians is law school, private practice, then serving in local and state offices, and then running for congress. thus, once women begin attending law school and serving in these lower-level political offices in greater numbers, only then will we see serious increases in the number of women serving in the house and eventually the senate. . . . a similar explanation has been offered for the dearth of women in the judiciary, known as the “eligibility pool” theory (cook 1988; martin 1997) (palmer 2001b, 235). the underrepresentation of women in the judiciary has similarly been attributed to the absence of qualified female candidates from which to choose (alozie 1990; githens 1995, 1). “the eligible pool theory claims that given the number of qualified female applicants available, there are just too few women to alter the existing gender pattern of judicial appointment” (githens 1995, 4). yet, this theory does not completely explain the dearth of female judges (cook 1981; martin 1997; palmer 2001b, 237). the state of georgia concluded that the judicial selection process “unintentionally applies different standards and criteria for male and female candidates, e.g., according less weight to traditionally ‘female’ areas of practice with more weight accorded to fields viewed as heather frederick 23 predominantly ‘male’” (commission on gender bias in the judicial system 1992, 770). for appointments to the federal courts, the american bar association tends to give higher ratings to attorneys who are older, wealthy, and experienced in the corporate sector, characteristics traditionally associated more with male than female attorneys (allen 1985; githens 1995, 6). such stereotypes about the characteristics and experiences of qualified attorneys disadvantage women since they are more likely to practice law in the public sector. “it is perceived that female candidates for judicial appointments are subject to stereotyped expectations about appropriate experiences, stature, and demeanor which devalue their abilities and background. inquiries about how candidates handle marital circumstances and children occur with women and not with men” (commission on gender bias in the judicial system 1992, 770). in some circumstances, however, these stereotypes and gender differences in law practice may increase the number of female judges. a study of baltimore judges found that even though “women were attending law schools in greater and greater numbers, life after law school was not particularly promising for them” (githens 1995, 21). facing difficulty in being recruited by prominent law firms at which they might eventually win a prestigious partnership, these female lawyers turned to the public sector instead. “perhaps this accounts for the fact that so many well-qualified women sought appointments to the bench. similarly, african-americans had reduced choices in the private sector. might it not be that for women and african-americans an appointment to a judgeship represented high status and prestige, whereas for white men prestige meant a partnership?” (githens 1995, 21). while this may have been the case in baltimore, the fact remains that female attorneys face greater obstacles in obtaining a seat on the bench. regardless of whether these obstacles are due to voter stereotypes or to gubernatorial selection, “either the decision makers are discriminating or the criteria are unfair” (kenney 2004, 90–91). data and results one of the initial goals of this article was to discover whether female judges on the pennsylvania courts of common pleas were more likely to achieve their position through election or gubernatorial appointment. 24 judicial selection and the underrepresentation of women on the pennsylvania courts of common pleas although evidence shows that gubernatorial appointment systems are more likely to diversify the bench with regard to gender, “this effect operates primarily to diversify all-male courts” (bratton and spill 2002, 504). data compiled for this article included all judges who served at least one day on the bench in the pennsylvania courts of common pleas between 1995 and 2006. the list of 609 courts of common pleas judges was derived from the 1995–2006 annual reports of the pennsylvania unified judicial system. the pennsylvania manual (1995-2005) provided the biography of each judge, which included whether the judge was appointed by the governor or elected by the voters. any missing data were sought on the internet. fewer than 10 judges were deleted from the data set due to a complete lack of information regarding their method of attaining office. while most judges on the courts of common pleas are initially elected to the bench by voters, 36% of those serving between 1995 and 2006 obtained their post through gubernatorial appointment. as table 1 shows, of the 609 common pleas judges serving on the bench between 1995 and 2006, 387 had been elected by the voters and 222 had been appointed by the governor prior to a retention election. while voters as well as governors overwhelmingly selected men for the courts of common pleas, there is no significant difference in the percentage of female judges who are elected and appointed. table 1 all judges serving on the pennsylvania courts of common pleas, 1995-2006 (609) elected (387) appointed (222) male 305 79% male 183 82% female 82 21% female 39 18% it might be assumed that more women would win a seat on the courts of common pleas through gubernatorial appointment than through popular election, especially under democratic governors. the literature supports this assumption. “the conventional wisdom is that women generally fare better in the appointment than the election heather frederick 25 process” (commission on gender bias in the judicial system 1992, 769; also see fund for modern courts 1985). nevertheless, more women— and a higher percentage of women—achieve their position on the courts of common pleas through election than through gubernatorial appointment. the state of georgia similarly found that “more women judges in the state and superior courts in georgia first took office by election, than by appointment” (commission on gender bias in the judicial system 1992; also see alozie 1990). table 2, which limits the sample to judges elected or appointed since 1995, reveals a pattern relevant to the “pipeline” and “eligibility pool” theories. while female judges in the entire sample were slightly more likely to be elected by the voters than appointed by the governor, those joining the courts of common pleas since 1995 were 6% more likely to have attained their position through gubernatorial appointment than through popular election. these results highlight differences in judges appointed before and after 1995 for which there may be a variety of explanations. the disparity here may suggest voter bias in electing women to the judiciary. a more likely explanation, however, is found in the literature concerning female legislative candidates: women are less likely than men to run for political office. the women most qualified for the bench may have a greater tendency to wait for a gubernatorial appointment than to engage in the adversarial battle of campaign politics. table 2 also indicates a higher percentage of women joining the bench since 1995. although women are not becoming judges on the courts of common pleas in proportion to their share of the general population, the data in table 2 offer some support for the “pipeline” and “eligibility pool” theories. more women are attaining positions in the pennsylvania judiciary in recent years than was the case previously. table 2 judges elected or appointed to the pennsylvania courts of common pleas, 1995-2006 (254) elected (186) appointed (68) male 140 75% male 41 69% female 46 25% female 21 31% 26 judicial selection and the underrepresentation of women on the pennsylvania courts of common pleas although gubernatorial appointment is not an effective method for increasing the number of female judges on pennsylvania’s courts of common pleas, the political party affiliation of the governor might be thought to affect the number of female judges appointed. the literature supports the hypothesis that democratic governors may be more likely to appoint women to government positions since “the democratic party does enjoy greater support among women and is perceived as being more supportive of women’s issues” (solowiej, martinek, and brunell 2005, 561). as table 3 shows, however, the party affiliation of the governor has no significant effect on whether a man or a woman is chosen to fill a vacancy on the courts of common pleas. of the judges serving on the courts of common pleas between 1995 and 2006, 88 were appointed by republican governors. about 83% of those appointments went to men, while about 17% went to women. the results for democratic gubernatorial appointments are strikingly identical. of the 128 judges appointed to the courts of common pleas by democratic governors, 83% were men and 17% were women. consequently, there is little evidence that the governor’s party affiliation has any impact on increasing the number of female judges on the courts of common pleas in pennsylvania. table 3 all judges serving on the pennsylvania courts of common pleas, 1995-2006 (208) appointed by a democratic governor (122) appointed by a republican governor (86) male 101 83% male 71 83% female 21 17% female 15 17% on the other hand, the data for judges appointed since 1995 show more striking differences. as table 4 indicates, while republican governors had the opportunity to appoint almost twice as many judges to the courts of common pleas as did democratic governors, they appointed 6% fewer female judges. table 4 also shows that not only are democratic governors more likely to select women for vacancies on the heather frederick 27 courts of common pleas, but since 1995 women in general have been more likely than men to be appointed to the bench. once again the data support the idea that more women have become judges on the courts of common pleas in recent years because more women have been in the “pipeline” or “eligibility pool” since 1995 than before. table 4 all judges serving on the pennsylvania courts of common pleas, 1995-2006 (68) appointed by a democratic governor (23) appointed by a republican governor (86) male 15 65% male 32 71% female 8 35% female 13 29% still, the relatively low number of female judges shows that women are woefully underrepresented as judges in pennsylvania considering their share of the state’s population. women account for more than half of pennsylvania’s citizenry but less than a third of its judges on the courts of common pleas. this gender disparity does little to improve the condition of women in pennsylvania, and it contributes substantially to the commonwealth’s forty-fourth place ranking among the states in terms of women’s representation in elected and appointed office. women are also underrepresented as judges on the courts of common pleas relative to their share of the organized bar. in 2006, women comprised 28% of the pennsylvania bar association, 31% of lawyers in private firms, 35% of lawyers in district attorneys’ offices, and 35% of lawyers in public defenders’ offices (pennsylvania bar association commission on women in the profession 2006). in the same year, there were no women on the courts of common pleas in 36 of pennsylvania’s 67 counties. excluding philadelphia, which has 43 female court of common pleas judges, or 46% of all philadelphia judges, women comprise 13% of the court of common pleas judges in the remaining 66 counties (pennsylvania bar association commission on women in the profession 2006). 28 judicial selection and the underrepresentation of women on the pennsylvania courts of common pleas there is a large disparity in many pennsylvania counties between the percentage of female judges and the percentage of female american bar association (aba) members. the raw numbers of male and female judges in each pennsylvania county between 2002 and 2006 are displayed in the appendix (pp. 30-31). the variance in the number of male and female judges becomes even more striking when the percentage of female judges in each county is compared with the percentage therein of female aba members. only five pennsylvania counties had a higher percentage of female judges than female aba members for the entire five-year period (chester, monroe, philadelphia, union, and washington). ten additional counties exhibit at least one year with a higher percentage of female judges than female aba members (bucks in 2002; erie in 2002, 2003, and 2004; forest in 2006; indiana in 2004, 2005, and 2006; juniata in 2005 and 2006; lycoming in 2003, 2004, and 2005; perry in 2005 and 2006; snyder in 2005 and 2006; susquehanna in 2002, 2003, and 2004; and warren in 2006). two pennsylvania counties (cameron for the entire five-year period and forest in 2002 and 2004) stand out for having no female aba members. this anomaly is due largely to the small population of these counties and their scarcity of attorneys, whether male or female. aggregate results for the studied time period show little variance from 2002 to 2006. the five-year average of the number of male judges per county in pennsylvania is five, whereas the average is 1.35 for female judges. during the five-year period, female judges accounted for only 10.6% of all judges on the courts of common pleas. the average number of female aba members in all pennsylvania counties was 21.6, which results in an 11-point disparity between the percentage of female judges and the percentage of female aba members in the state from 2002 to 2006. these figures do not change significantly when philadelphia county, which has the largest number of female judges, is excluded from the calculations. conclusions women in pennsylvania are substantially underrepresented on the state’s courts of common pleas. a large disparity exists between the number of male and female judges on these courts even when the smaller heather frederick 29 “eligibility pool” of women and their narrower “professional pipeline” are taken into consideration. the striking difference between the number of women in the pennsylvania bar association and the number of female judges on the courts of common pleas indicates that women have not achieved parity on the state bench and that the “eligibility pool” and “professional pipeline” explanations are not necessarily determinative. the underrepresentation of women as judges on the courts of common pleas is consistent with their underrepresentation in public office generally in pennsylvania. this gender disparity may also reflect differences in how men and women pursuing legal careers define and weigh their personal and professional values. although women are significantly disadvantaged in obtaining seats on the state’s courts of common pleas, whether through gubernatorial appointment or by popular election, this study finds that little gender bias is attributable to either of these methods of selecting judges. be that as it may, the fact remains that women are not represented as judges on the courts of common pleas in numbers commensurate with their share of the legal profession, much less their portion of the state population as a whole. therefore, while alozie (1996, 124) was right to argue that changing judicial selection systems is not the answer to improving the representation of women on state supreme courts, greater awareness on the part of the electorate and the governor of the underrepresentation of women serving as judges pennsylvania’s courts of common pleas may aid in rectifying the problem. the findings presented here are intended to contribute to that awareness. notes 1 special thanks to alex mcneill for her tireless ability to obtain data believed to be impossible to locate. an earlier version of this paper was presented in 2008 at the annual meeting of the pennsylvania political science association conference in harrisburg, pennsylvania. 30 judicial selection and the underrepresentation of women on the pennsylvania courts of common pleas appendix numbers and percentages of male and female judges on the pennsylvania courts of common pleas, percentages of female aba members, and percent difference between female judges and female aba members in pennsylvania counties, 2002–2006 heather frederick 31 appendix, continued 32 judicial selection and the underrepresentation of women on the pennsylvania courts of common pleas references abrahamson, shirley. 1993. “toward a courtroom of one’s own: an appellate court judge looks at gender bias.” university of cincinnati law review 61: 1209–1221. allen, david w. 1985. “recruitment of women to state supreme courts: cultural and economic conditions.” presented at the annual meeting of the midwest political science association, chicago. allen, david w., and diane wall. 1987. “the behavior of women state supreme court justices: are they tokens or outsiders?” justice system journal 12(2): 232–245. alozie, nicolas o. 1990. “distribution of women and minority judges.” social science quarterly 71: 315–325. alozie, nicolas o. 1996. “selection methods and the recruitment of women to state courts of last resort.” social science quarterly 77(1): 110–126. 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circuit.” wisconsin women’s law journal 8: 143–173. davis, sue, susan haire, and donald songer. 1993. “voting behavior and gender on the u.s. court of appeals.” judicature 77(3): 129–133. finley, lucinda. 1989. “breaking women’s silence in law: the dilemma of the gendered nature of legal reasoning.” notre dame law review 64: 886–910. frey, barbara. 2003. “electing women judges to the international criminal court.” http://www.hhh.umn.edu/img/assets/9681/fair_representation.pdf. fund for modern courts, inc. 1985. the success of women and minorities in achieving judicial office. new york: fund for modern courts, inc. githens, marianne. 1995. “getting appointed to the state court: the gender dimension.” women and politics 15(4): 1–24. goldman, sheldon and elliot slotnick. 1997. “clinton’s first term judiciary: many bridges to cross.” judicature 80: 254–273. gyrski, gerard, eleanor main, and william dixon. 1986. “models of state high court decision making in sex discrimination cases.” journal of politics 48: 143–155. hartley, roger and lisa holmes. 1997. “increasing senate scrutiny of lower federal court nominees.” judicature 80: 274–278. jenness, valerie. 1995. “social movement growth, domain expansion, and framing processes: the gay/lesbian movement and violence against gays and lesbians as a social problem.” social problems 42(1): 145–170. jensen, jennifer m. and wendy l. martinek. 2008. “the effects of race and gender on the judicial ambitions of state trial court judges.” political research quarterly september 9. kanter, rosabeth. 1977. men and women of the corporation. new york: basic books. karst, kenneth. 1984. “woman’s constitution.” duke law journal 3: 447–508. kenney, sally j. 2002. “breaking the silence: gender mainstreaming and the composition of the european court of justice.” feminist legal studies 10(3): 257– 270. kuerstein, ashlyn and ken manning. 2000. “women judges on the lower federal courts: are they different from their brethren?” unpublished manuscript. marks, lynn a., roberta d. liebenberg, and shira j. goodman. 2004. “assault on bias: a pennsylvania supreme court committee offers concrete steps to improve the system.” voices and views: a newsletter from the pennsylvania bar association commission of women in the profession. winter: 6–8. martin, elaine. 1990. “men and women on the bench: vive la difference?” judicature 73(4): 204–208. martin, elaine. 1997. “glass ceiling or skylight? women on state supreme courts: a preliminary test of the eligible pool theory.” presented at the annual meeting of the southern political science association, norfolk, va. https://webmail.ursinus.edu/exchweb/bin/redir.asp?url=http://www.hhh.umn.edu/img/assets/9681/fair_representation.pdf 34 judicial selection and the underrepresentation of women on the pennsylvania courts of common pleas martin, elaine, and barry pyle. 1999. “glick and emmert revisited: gender and racial diversification of state supreme courts, preliminary findings.” presented at the annual meeting of the midwest political science association, chicago. mccann, michael w. 1994. rights at work: pay equity reform and the politics of legal mobilization. chicago: university of chicago press. menkel-meadow, carrie. 1985. “portia in a different voice: speculations on a women’s lawyering process.” berkeley women’s law journal 1: 39–63. minium, harry. 2007. “democrats laud rerras’ judicial picks for norfolk.” the (norfolk) virginian-pilot, february 16. moyer, laura p. 2008. “gender diversification in the u.s. courts of appeals: testing the critical mass hypothesis.” presented at the annual meeting of the american political science association, boston. o’connor, karen and jeffrey segal. 1990. “justice sandra day o’connor and the supreme court’s reaction to its first female member.” women and politics 10(2): 95–103. office of court administration and state bar of texas. 1998. “the courts and the legal profession in texas—the insider's perspective: a survey of judges, court personnel, and attorneys,” public trust and confidence in the courts and the legal profession in texas, austin, tx. http://www.courts.state.tx.us/pubs/publictrust /index.htm. palmer, barbara. 2001a. “women in the american judiciary: their influence and impact.” women and politics, vol. 23(3): 89–99. palmer, barbara. 2001b. “‘to do justly’: the integration of women into the american judiciary.” psonline. www.apsanet.org. june: 235–239. pennsylvania bar association commission on women in the profession. 2006. “12th annual report card.” http://www.pabar.org/pdf/wiprc06.pdf#search=%22 commission. pennsylvania center for women, politics, and public policy. 2008. personal email sent from allison lowe, center director at chatham university, march 1. pennsylvania manual. 1995–2005. volumes 112–118. harrisburg, pa: department of general services. pennsylvania.gov website. 2008. “a brief history of the courts of pennsylvania.” pennsylvania’s unified judicial system. 2008. http://www.pacourts.us/links/public/ judicialqualifications.htm. resnik, judith. 1996. “asking about gender in courts.” signs 21(4): 952–990. schafran, lynn hecht. 1985. “educating the judiciary about gender bias: the national judicial education program to promote equality for women and men in the courts and the new jersey supreme court task force on women in the courts.” women’s rights law reporter 9(2): 109–124. segal, jennifer. 2000. “representative decision making on the federal bench: clinton’s district court appointees.” political research quarterly 53(1): 137–150. http://www.courts.state.tx.us/pubs/publictrust /index.htm http://www.courts.state.tx.us/pubs/publictrust /index.htm http://www.apsanet.org/ http://www.pabar.org/pdf/wiprc06.pdf#search=%22 commission http://www.pabar.org/pdf/wiprc06.pdf#search=%22 commission http://www.pacourts.us/links/public/ judicialqualifications.htm http://www.pacourts.us/links/public/ judicialqualifications.htm heather frederick 35 segal diascro, jennifer. 2008. “empathy from the bench: a new perspective on gender and judicial decision making.” presented at the annual meeting of the american political science association, boston. sherry, suzanna. 1986. civic virtue and the feminine voice in constitutional adjudication.” virginia law review 72: 543–616. solowiej, lisa a., wendy l. martinek, and thomas l. brunell. 2005. “partisan politics: the impact of party in the confirmation of minority and female federal court nominees.” party politics 11(5): 557–577. songer, donald, sue davis, and susan haire. 1994. “a reappraisal of diversification in the federal courts: gender effects in the courts of appeals.” journal of politics 56(2): 425–439. spees, pam. 2003. “women’s advocacy in the creation of the international criminal court: changing the landscapes of justice and power.” signs: journal of women in culture and society 28(4): 1233–1254. sterling, joyce s. 1993. “the impact of gender bias on judging: survey of attitudes toward women judges.” colorado lawyer 22 (february): 257–258. tolchin, susan. 1977. “the exclusion of women from the judicial process.” signs: journal of women in culture and society, 2(4): 877–887. walker, thomas and deborah barrow. 1985. “the diversification of the federal bench: policy and process ramifications.” journal of politics 47: 596–617. yoder, janice. 1991. “rethinking tokenism: looking beyond the numbers.” gender and society 5: 178-92. 121 book reviews comments from the book review editor continuing a recent tradition, commonwealth presents several reviews of books either pertaining to pennsylvania’s history, government, and politics, or whose authors are pennsylvania political scientists. two books deal with african american history in the state. the first concerns octavius catto, a black civil-rights activist of the civil war era; the second explores race relations in pittsburgh after world war ii. two other books address environmental matters. one is a memoir by franklin kury, a former member of the pennsylvania general assembly and a renowned environmental activist. the other is a collection of essays tracing philadelphia’s advances in environmental preservation and sustainability. the remaining volume is an introductory textbook on political philosophy by donald tannenbaum of gettysburg college. readers are encouraged to recommend books for review and to submit proposals for reviews. guidelines for doing so can be found in the back section of this volume. — thomas j. baldino, book review editor 122 book reviews tasting freedom: octavius catto and the battle for equality in civil war america. by daniel biddle and murray dubin. philadelphia, pa: temple university press, 2010. 632p. $32.95 cloth. isbn: 1-59213-465-3 in their hefty biography of octavius catto, journalists dan biddle and murray dubin intended, in their own words, to spin “a good yarn.” they have succeeded. in fact, they have spun two yarns, for this is really two books in one. the book is first a delightful exploration of how a generation of young black activists came of age during the civil war, how they saw their parents’ wildest dreams realized in that war, and how those dreams were dashed by the postwar outbreak of white violence just as, in the words of w.e.b. du bois, “they were first tasting freedom” (474). but the book is also a tribute to their more battle-worn parents, some of whom—like the reverend william catto, a self-made man not unlike frederick douglass— had escaped slavery, while others were veterans of the violence against blacks and abolitionists that plagued northern cities. after whites terrorized several of philadelphia’s black neighborhoods in 1842 by attacking churches and schools, robert purvis remarked, “i am convinced of our utter and complete nothingness in public estimation” (57). despite these dark days, catto, purvis, james forten, james le count, and jacob white sr. managed to raise children who expected to enjoy real racial equality. it was an inestimable gift that octavius catto, harriet purvis, charlotte forten, caroline le count, and jacob white, to name a few, received from their parents, and one that they did not waste. indeed, a central tragedy of the book’s story is that william catto managed to survive slavery and raise four free children only to have the youngest of them, octavius, die before him—not on a distant civil war battlefield but rather in a city that in william’s day had been a beacon of hope for the enslaved. octavius catto died in election day violence in the city of brotherly love in 1871. veteran newspapermen, dubin and biddle have done superb sleuth work here, excavating what little there is to know about octavius catto—even digging up an aging catto ancestor, leonard garnet smith, catto’s greatgrandnephew, who was stumping for presidential candidate barack obama when the authors made contact with him. besides finding the biographer’s holy grail that provided them with the perfect closing anecdote, the authors discovered in period newspapers all sorts of surprises. for example, they tell the little known tale of a substantial slave auction held in 1859 by philadelphia resident pierce butler, otherwise known as fanny kemble’s ex (the famous british actor had divorced her slave-owning husband years before). although the auction took place near butler’s georgia plantation, a reporter covered the dramatic sale of hundreds of men, women, and children and the breakup of their families; and the story helped to fuel sectional sentiments in an otherwise very southern city. readers might also find 123 book reviews interesting the story about the secession of a substantial number of the university of pennsylvania’s medical students in 1860. and scholars will want to examine a newspaper expose in which a reporter set out to get a feel for black life in the city. like an early social worker, the reporter visited the homes of the rich and poor and described what he saw for white readers who were used to averting their eyes. this was a particularly wonderful find, considering that scholars usually date the first such study to 1896, when a young harvard-trained sociologist named du bois set out to survey philadelphia’s seventh ward. all this effort pays off, and the result is a lively biography of a littleknown leader of the civil-rights movement in the years following the civil war. indeed, it might seem brash of the authors to offer up a 500-page biography of a young man who died at the sprightly age of thirty-two. but catto’s untimely death puts him squarely in the company of civil-rights leaders about whom volumes have been written; it pays to remember that medgar evers was thirty-seven when he died and martin luther king was thirty-nine. of course, evers’s biographers have the best of all sources in his wife, myrlie evers-williams, and the fbi thankfully kept close tabs on king. catto left behind caroline le count, a black educator and civil rights activist, but le count seems to have left no paper trail at all. not deterred, murray and dubin fill in the substantial blanks by populating the book with catto’s friends and fellow travelers—and the ward bosses, corrupt politicians, and backroom dealers who ensured that catto’s killer, frank kelly, never faced justice. scholars will raise some quibbles about the book’s structure. the endnote style was likely the publisher’s choice; while keeping down the page count, it takes some getting used to. the narrative occasionally suffers from a strained transition, as the authors zealously piece together disparate events occurring in boston, cincinnati, and charleston. the fast-paced narrative makes the book a quick read, but there are times when i found myself wanting to linger, as during the account of celebrations of the enactment of the fifteenth amendment in 1870 when catto, purvis, douglass, and other luminaries addressed crowds of black celebrants and then adjourned to enjoy an exclusive dinner, leaving the common celebrants to evade as best as they could white thugs in the streets. here the disjuncture seemed to call for some discussion of class and the economics that separated the black elite from those who lived in city slums. ambitious book clubbers will look in vain for an appended list of short biographies of the major characters in the book, indicating their relationship to each other. like most elites, philadelphia’s black brahmins had a tendency to intermarry—when harriet forten purvis and frances (fanny) jackson coppin married, they each joined two elite families—but even determined readers might puzzle over the entwined limbs of their family trees. 124 book reviews none of these problems detract from a book that brings octavius catto and his generation to life. more than that, tasting freedom offers readers a nuanced and multi-layered portrait of philadelphia during the reconstruction era. —judith giesberg, villanova university nature’s entrepôt—philadelphia’s urban sphere and its environmental thresholds. edited by brian c. black and michael j. chiarappa. pittsburgh, pa: university of pittsburgh press, 2012. 304p. $38.00 cloth. isbn: 9780-8229-4417-1 nature’s entrepôt is a collection of essays documenting the environmental history of philadelphia, pennsylvania—america’s first city. the contributors track and discuss the many events that have influenced the navigation of philadelphia’s sustainability journey. the book is divided into four parts: “ideal and reality in the early city,” “locating patterns of industry and commerce in the expanding city,” “landscape transformation in the growing city,” and “confronting the ecologies.” the chapters are organized to flow from philadelphia before 1800 in part i. part ii considers events in late eighteenthand early nineteenth-century philadelphia. part iii continues the examination of ensuing developments from the nineteenth through the early twentieth century. part iv reflects on the ramifications of these earlier activities and provides discussion points and action items for the future direction of philadelphia, as well as any other city. inspirational stories and case studies are used by knowledgeable contributors to explain successes; and important lessons are drawn from failures. the essays delve into significant environmental themes that provide insight into understanding philadelphia’s current environmental status. for example, apel’s essay on yellow fever in philadelphia between 1793 and 1805 provides perspective on environmental health and its connection to the labor system at the time. sciotte reviews environmental justice and environmental racism between 1981 and 2001, highlighting the environmental hazards that have resulted since the 1970s because of decreased manufacturing in the philadelphia metropolitan area. vitiello discusses evolving trends and policy failures in local agriculture and food security initiatives. greene’s chronology of the history of deer in a city setting shows the challenges and important policy issues of dealing with urban wildlife and animal management. rilling presents an interesting perspective on solid-waste management in her tale of charles cummings, the bone boiler. milroy reviews the history, legacy, and current challenges of one of philadelphia’s jewels, the fairmount park system. the issues milroy identifies and discusses will be important to all who are interested in protecting public parks and recreational facilities. 125 book reviews philadelphia is known for its grid-based street system. levine traces the history of the grid system and its continued impact on the city. spirn uses the history and landscape of mill creek as a “living laboratory” to teach about water, landscape, and urban design. the approach and experiences serve as a valuable teaching and planning model. adams considers the role of the suburbs and the potential benefits of a regional approach to address the city’s environmental, infrastructure, and employment issues. mason reviews the challenges of urban sprawl in philadelphia and the similarity of the city’s issues to those of other aging metropolitan areas. chiarappa discusses philadelphia’s proximity to the delaware estuary and its relationship with this important ecosystem. examining the role of the oyster trade in the environmental history of the philadelphia area, he explains how effective management of the estuary’s resources is crucial to the development of a sustainable future for the region. mcmahon uses the story of dock creek to show how water resources and waste management were treated in evolving urban technological systems in eighteenth-century philadelphia. his essay depicts the consequences of narrow values and short-term thinking. zabel lays the groundwork for understanding the direction that philadelphia’s environmental history has taken by reviewing william penn’s philadelphia. vintage maps and photographs complement many of the essays. this book is a valuable resource and belongs in the library of anyone interested in learning about and from philadelphia’s rich record of environmental triumphs and tribulations. as benjamin franklin observed: “tell me and i forget. teach me and i remember. involve me and i learn.” nature’s entrepôt provides needed direction and lessons learned on how to be involved in deploying effective environmental policy and urban planning. — marleen a. troy, wilkes university clean politics, clean streams: a legislative autobiography and reflections. by franklin l. kury. bethlehem, pa: lehigh university press, 2011. 274p. $80.00 cloth. isbn: 9781611460742 one of the major downsides of the changing landscape of news media over the past few decades is declining coverage of state legislative politics. one source for a solid and rich understanding of state legislative process is the biographies and autobiographies of state political players. in his autobiography, franklin kury takes the reader on a journey through his time in the pennsylvania house of representatives (1966–1972) and the pennsylvania senate (1972–1980). kury divides his autobiography into four sections: “getting there” (1952–1966), “the house of representatives” (1966–1972), “the 126 book reviews state senate” (1972–1980), and “political life after the legislature and reflections” (1981–2010). kury opens his book by recounting the formative experience of greeting president truman as he campaigned for adlai stevenson during a train stop in northumberland in 1952. that event, combined with talking history and politics while working at barney’s shoe service in sunbury, the gentle persuasion of his family, and an employment history with the attorney general’s office and u.s. representative george rhodes, provided the motivation for kury’s venture into pennsylvania politics. kury’s political ambitions and success in running for the general assembly need to be contextualized within the republican party machine of northumberland county, led by county chairman henry lark. while the lark machine “had discipline and a sense of direction” and “produced consistent electoral success” (p. 25), the organization was beginning to show cracks that kury capitalized on. first, when running for the state house, kury set out to create a grassroots, volunteer-only organization that would create its own energy and sense of direction. second, kury determined to make his race an issue-driven one, “with heavy emphasis on clean streams” and the republican incumbent’s “no” vote on an important bill to bring coal companies within reach of the clean-streams bill (p. 27). finally, the kury campaign made every effort to acquire republican votes and to make personal contact with as many voters as possible. the strategy worked, as kury pulled off an upset victory by a slim margin of 939 votes. in part ii, kury recounts his experiences and accomplishments in the pennsylvania house of representatives. representative kury hit the ground running and within two years worked with others to reform the absentee ballot, which had the effect of significantly reducing absenteeballot controversies in pennsylvania. second, kury’s chief legislative prize was a systematic reform of the state’s clean-streams law, which began in 1968 while kury was in the house minority. the bill went nowhere until democrats took control of the house after the 1968 election. the cleanstreams bill catapulted to the top of the new legislative agenda. the bill, which became law when governor shafer signed it in 1970, expanded the definitions of key words in environmental law (e.g., “pollution” and “waters of the commonwealth”), gave the department of health and the sanitary water board wide authority to implement the statute, and prohibited any person from discharging any polluting substance into public waters. representative kury’s dedication to the environment extended further with his objective of amending the pennsylvania constitution to give the natural environment some degree of constitutional protection. the result was article i, section 27 of the pennsylvania constitution, which states that “people have a right to clean air, pure water, and to the preservation of the natural, scenic, historic, and esthetic values of the environment.” although 127 book reviews this constitutional provision has been limited by subsequent litigation, its place in the constitution is significant. in 1972, kury won a seat in the state senate, where he continued his reform efforts. during his eight years there, kury helped shepherd changes to the senate’s process of confirming gubernatorial appointments, the determination of a governor’s disability, the rewriting of the utility law, and reform of the floodplainand storm-water-management laws. when richard thornburgh became pennsylvania’s governor in 1979, politics shifted in the state and kury “increasingly realized that the good fortune [he] had of serving in the senate while [his] party controlled all three branches of government was over” (p. 146). kury left the senate in 1980 but remained active in politics, serving as a fundraiser for various democratic politicians in pennsylvania and working on walter mondale’s 1984 presidential campaign. kury concludes his autobiography by offering some personal reflections on politics. for kury, the keys to electoral and legislative success include having a set of dedicated volunteers, being a consistent leader, and “maintaining willingness to compromise” (p. 158). another important variable for success—and one that is perhaps lacking in modern politics— is the commitment to “doing the ‘homework’ necessary to document and justify the proposed legislation” (p. 158). at a time when public distrust of politicians and government institutions is high, kury’s book offers an endearing and welcome perspective on how politics once worked and could work again. while kury does not offer any strong prescriptions for the systemic ills that plague pennsylvania’s politics, the reader is left with a mildly comforting feeling that pennsylvania’s problems are enduring ones that simply manifest themselves in different ways over time. for example, corruption and malfeasance were present in kury’s time in the general assembly, but their presence did not automatically preclude kury and other reformers from passing significant legislation. while it may be tempting to dismiss this book as one man’s legislative stories, it is much more, because it provides valuable insights into what it takes to be an influential and respected politician able to help move our great commonwealth forward. — kyle l. kreider, wilkes university inventors of ideas: an introduction to western political philosophy. 3d ed. by donald g. tannenbaum. new york: wadsworth, cengage learning, 2012. 314p. $97.00 paper. isbn: 9780495908241 political philosophy, one of the pillars of political science, has been under attack for more than four decades. this attack in the name of the modern scientific method led to the banishment of political philosophy from 128 book reviews the academy at various major universities. the past decade witnessed a new challenge in the form of a generation of web-browsing, text-messaging undergraduate students who admit that they do not enjoy reading, do not want to read, or ultimately refuse to read. these students are experts at finding data and isolated facts, but they have major difficulties with critical analysis and the formulation of logical argument (as opposed to personal opinion). these problems arise, in part, because the students have essentially no historical context in which to analyze the disparate facts they find electronically and no moral context within which to reflect upon personally or discuss publicly the fundamental questions of political philosophy: what is justice? is there a common good? what is the best regime? more than most students in recent memory, today’s students desperately need political philosophy as formulated by plato and aristotle and practiced by machiavelli and rousseau. thus donald tannenbaum’s third edition of inventors of ideas: introduction to western political philosophy is a welcome counterweight and a valuable addition to the textbooks available for undergraduate courses in political philosophy. a balanced combination of breadth and brevity remains the hallmark of this textbook. the expanded edition is still only 300 pages long. between an introduction and a conclusion setting out the author’s analysis of political/societal crises and the role of political philosophers in addressing them, students will discover fifteen chapters, each devoted to a major political philosopher (or two). plato, aristotle, augustine, aquinas, machiavelli, hobbes, locke, rousseau, and marx are all covered. neglected political philosophers—cicero, burke, mill, and mary wollstonecraft—also receive individual chapters. luther and calvin are paired in one chapter, and freud and nietzsche are paired in the final substantive chapter. professors of political philosophy will find that the chapters on cicero, luther and calvin, burke, and freud and nietzsche provide both historical and moral context for undergraduates not readily available elsewhere. inventors of ideas differs from other textbooks that seek to explain one or two of each political philosopher’s key texts, e.g., plato’s apology or machiavelli’s prince. tannenbaum explicates key terms and concepts (human nature, forms of government, law and citizenship) in each philosopher’s work as a whole without expecting students to have read the original. for example, his chapter on aristotle addresses “happiness, values, and human nature,” “community,” and “political change,” (34–44), while the chapter on rousseau variously treats “state of nature and human nature,” “the social contract,” “citizenship, gender and education,” and “forms of government” (188–204). each chapter contains a variety of study aids, including a one or two-page conclusion by tannenbaum, “notes to the chapter,” and 129 book reviews recommendations for “additional readings.” this edition for the first time also contains a wide range of useful charts and figures to illustrate graphically the author’s analysis, such as figure 11.3, “comparing the contracts of hobbes, locke and rousseau” (194), and figure 15.1, “marx: the stages of history” (267). another strength of this textbook is that from the beginning, the author asks students to reflect upon the methodologies of classical, medieval, and modern political philosophers and apply them to contemporary political problems. what if your regime allowed or compelled only one religion? what if you knew a friend was being convicted of a crime but was innocent? is democracy the best regime under all conditions? if a law is unjust, must it be obeyed until it can be changed? from aristotle’s recognition that politics is choice of actions directed to ends, tannenbaum wants students to find in the classical, medieval, and modern political philosophers not dried up, empty relics of fact or history but living choices that prevail today in many authoritarian and nominally democratic regimes. interestingly, in her political philosophy in the twentieth century: authors and arguments (2011), katherine zuckert also sought to defend human agency and political choice by focusing upon the upwelling of political philosophy in the mid-twentieth century in the persons of hannah arendt, leo strauss, eric voegelin, jurgen habermas, and john rawls, among others. in different ways, zuckert and tannenbaum each seek to advance “a rich and vibrant tradition of reflection and debate about the most fundamental issues of human existence” (zuckert, 6). any two professors of political philosophy could disagree about the most reasonable interpretation of the key texts in political philosophy. was socrates describing an ideal state in the republic or merely constructing a “city in speech”? was machiavelli a modern realist or a “teacher of evil”? are hobbes and locke polar opposites or are they part of a common brotherhood of “possessive individualism”? thus, i do not address the author’s interpretations of various political philosophers. rather, disagreement about both “human nature” and the “best regime” may be indispensable to retaining the “tradition of reflection and debate” that both tannenbaum and zuckert seek. i have two suggestions for the next edition. first, include a recommendation for the most literal and least expensive paperback translation of each philosopher’s major works for faculty who want students to confront the original texts while still using a basic textbook. second, expand the list of “additional readings.” arguably, two of the most significant political philosophers of the twentieth century are conspicuously underrepresented. leo strauss is mentioned only in passing, and eric voegelin is absent entirely. for example, in the chapters on plato and aristotle alone, none of the following are included: voegelin, the world of the polis; voegelin, plato 130 book reviews and aristotle; strauss, socrates and aristophanes; strauss, on tyranny; zuckert, plato’s philosophers: the coherence of the dialogues; seth benardete, socrates’ second sailing: on plato’s republic; joseph cropsey, on humanity’s intensive introspection; cropsey, plato’s world: man’s place in the cosmos; michael davis, the soul of the greeks; and ronna burger, aristotle’s dialogue with socrates: on the “nicomachean ethics.” — michael r. dillon, la salle university race and renaissance: african americans in pittsburgh since world war ii. by joe w. trotter and jared n. day. pittsburgh, pa: university of pittsburgh press, 2010. 304p. $29.95 cloth. isbn: 978-0822943914 joe trotter and jared day, two professors of history at carnegie mellon university, embarked on a daunting task with their newest book: to chronicle more than half a century of african american life in pittsburgh. while many studies have been done of the african american experience in chicago, new york, philadelphia, and other american cities, this book is the first to examine pittsburgh. through interviews, oral histories, newspaper stories, and many other sources, the authors have created a fascinating and detailed overview of the last 60 (and more) years of the struggle of african americans for equality and the obstacles they faced. the authors believe that african american history in the united states cannot be fully understood without knowledge of the story of the black community in pittsburgh. in writing this book, the authors provide a broad perspective on racial inequality in pittsburgh since world war ii. while reaching for improved conditions at work, school, and home, african americans in the steel city endured a deep and protracted struggle but eventually made great strides. the book opens with a review of the turn of the twentieth century and the great migration of blacks to pittsburgh. the authors discuss the difficulties experienced by the new arrivals in obtaining jobs and housing and the general discrimination they encountered. blacks able to find work in the steel mills were usually employed as strike breakers or were subjected to constant layoffs. they were met with an attitude implying that they were not equipped to work in a non-farm environment. pittsburgh’s newly arrived eastern european immigrants vehemently resisted the inclusion of blacks in the workforce. this pattern was repeated throughout the manufacturing sector. most blacks were relegated to jobs at the lowest levels of the service industry. the great northern migration of blacks between 1910 and 1930 brought more african americans to pittsburgh, thereby swelling the demand for housing and increasing the need for jobs. ever-increasing discriminatory practices forced newly arriving black families to live in areas of pittsburgh that were already predominately black 131 book reviews and marked by substandard housing. these conditions led to the founding of a plethora of institutions to serve the black community. fraternal organizations, churches, business groups, and music clubs flourished. a middle class grew in neighborhoods such as the hill district. this was the beginning of civic engagement on a broader scale. a presidential executive order prohibiting job discrimination in federal contracts, defense plants, and training programs improved opportunities for african americans in employment. when world war ii broke out and industries expanded their workforces, the new prosperity spread to the black community; and along with it came an increasing desire on the part of african americans for greater participation in pittsburgh’s political life. the steel industry plays an important role in this book, for it links many aspects of african american daily life in pittsburgh. from the city’s beginnings, steel brought people to pittsburgh and steel is why people remained there. the industry’s decline and the city’s subsequent move to a service-oriented economy had a great impact on pittsburgh’s black residents, especially the latest wave of black migrants seeking opportunity in the postwar years. the black portion of pittsburgh’s population grew from 12% in 1950 to 20% in 1970. the book examines in great detail the engagement of the african american community in the processes of urban renewal, civil rights, politicization, and desegregation during this arduous period of deindustrialization. the continued presence of inequality is not ignored by the authors. while conditions have improved, inequality of access to education, housing, employment, health care, housing, and education remains. inequality increases poverty in the african american community. as the authors reflect on a country with an african american president, they ponder the impact of that monumental achievement on pittsburgh. those interested in researching the city of pittsburgh during the period examined in this book will find a treasure trove of source material and ideas. the appendix contains 25 pages of statistics and census data that illustrate what happened during this period. while the book is an informative beginning on many topics, the authors provide just enough to remind us that there is much more to be told. the book is also useful for teachers of african american studies, history, sociology, urban studies, and political science. yet it is written in a manner accessible to a broad audience. — arthur m. holst, city of philadelphia water department gendered pathways to power commonwealth, volume 21, issue 1 (2021). © 2021 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/com.v21i1.287. all rights reserved. gendered pathways to power identifying the role of county party chairs in the candidate recruitment process of pennsylvania’s local elective offices dana brown chatham university the commonwealth of pennsylvania has historically fared poorly in terms of the proportion of women serving in its governing bodies. after a historic year of women in politics in 2018, pennsylvania increased its proportion of women serving in the state legislature from 19% to 26%, which is still far from parity. why are women so underrepresented? political scientists have tested various variables: women’s lack of political ambition, negative gatekeeping by political parties, and gender stereotypes negatively impacting female candidates, just to name a few. this paper focuses on the role that county party chairs and vicechairs play in recruiting female candidates to run for political office in pennsylvania. in this article i ask: what do the recruitment efforts look like on the ground and how are the recruitment efforts gendered? in terms of recruitment efforts, i expect the stronger county party to have its leaders pull from informal networks that are extensions of the party leaders themselves. on the other hand, i expect weak county parties to cast a wide net for candidate recruitment and allow candidates to self-identify, which i call the “volunteer” model. i use interview data of county party chairs in order to understand the structure of candidate recruitment in pennsylvania and the impact it may have on candidate selection. gendered pathways to power 31 scholars have used a myriad of methods and theories to understand why women remain underrepresented in elective office.1 however, the extant literature specifically on the puzzle of women and politics in pennsylvania is quite scarce. scholars deber (1982) and hansen (1994) have focused their efforts on the lack of gender diversity amongst the state’s federal delegation. deber (1982) asks why so many of pennsylvania’s congressional candidates are white, middle-aged, and male. her analysis focuses on the role of the individual and how women hold themselves back from running for office based on societal norms. she fails to consider the role that institutions such as political parties play as gatekeepers to electoral politics. a decade later hansen (1994) primarily investigated why former democratic u.s. senate candidate lynn yeakel lost her bid in 1992 to senator arlen specter. her work revealed four main reasons for the paucity of women in pennsylvania politics: (1) a traditional political culture, (2) the strong party system, (3) a male-dominated party structure, and (4) the professionalized legislature. each worked to keep women’s representation low. this article aims to better understand the underrepresentation of women in pennsylvania politics as a function of the state’s traditional political culture, its strong party system, and the candidate recruitment practices of its political parties. specifically, what role do county parties play in recruiting female candidates to run for political office in pennsylvania? additionally, there is tension among the gender and party politics literature as to whether the party structure is advantageous to female candidates (crowder-meyer 2010) or an obstacle (niven 2006; sanbonmatsu 2006). lastly, this article studies candidate recruitment practices at the local level, which is important given that most individuals who hold elective office do so at the local level (trounstine 2008). relying on county party leader interviews, this article offers a narrative of the following three elements of the candidate recruitment process in pennsylvania: what the candidate process looks like across county parties, the impact of these practices on women’s representation, and the role that elite attitudes about women and politics play. candidate recruitment in an attempt to learn about what role political elites and their organizations play in perpetuating the underrepresentation of women in government, niven (1998) surveyed county party chairs and locally elected women from four states2 to determine if there was a male selection bias in the chairs’ recruitment efforts. niven found that there was evidence of an in-group preference 32 dana brown where the predominantly male party chairs favored masculine traits from occupations to personalities. of the female officeholders surveyed, 64% said that party leaders actively discouraged their candidacy. burrell coined the term “selectorate” to refer to party members involved at some stage in shortlisting candidates (1993, 291), but from niven’s research we learn that the selectorate can also exist on the local level, which impacts the pipeline of female candidates. sanbonmatsu (2006) investigated the role that political parties play in the candidate recruitment process for state legislatures across six states3 by interviewing and surveying party leaders. the party leaders’ responses were as diverse as the states studied, but there were some patterns that emerged. like niven, sanbonmatsu found that the “selectorate” recruited candidates from the recruiters’ own personal network. sanbonmatsu also confirmed a correlation between states with strong parties and fewer female candidates. when parties were strong, women tended to be ignored while men were actively recruited and endorsed. crowder-meyer (2010) found that strong, active, and structured parties ran more female candidates than weak parties. crowder-meyer found this pattern to be even more pronounced in the democratic party than in the republican party when women led the local parties. parties that worked with non-party groups such as community groups, volunteer organizations, and outside interest groups ran more female candidates, as women are more likely to participate in non-party groups than in political party organizations. less traditional means of recruitment are decidedly more effective at recruiting women: party leaders who look for candidates using traditional party member and officeholder networks will be more likely to find male candidates, while those who look beyond the party in sub-county offices and social networks of party members will be more likely to find female candidates. (crowder-meyer 2013, 409) i investigate how and when county party leaders rely on informal networks to identify potential candidates in pennsylvania. i consider how county party leaders explain the paucity of women in pennsylvania politics and the gendered implications for our representational bodies of government. all politics is local simply because women are holding office at local governments at slightly higher rates than the federal level, this in no way means that women are gendered pathways to power 33 present in local governments at a desired level (dolan, deckman, and swers 2007). thus, studying candidate recruitment at the local level is still a largely underdeveloped and highly relevant area to explore in order to better understand the underrepresentation of women in pennsylvania politics. pennsylvania has many of the variables that women and politics scholars use to predict lower representation of women, such as a professional legislature, traditional political party structure, and support for traditional gender roles4 (ncsl 2017). in light of crowder-meyer’s (2010) arguments that strong parties may potentially benefit women’s candidacies, pennsylvania boasting a historically “strong” party system represents a good test case of the role that parties may play in the recruitment process. candidate recruitment typology i anticipate that pennsylvania’s county political parties will rely mostly on informal recruitment efforts to identify candidates. informal candidate recruitment is defined as political party officials identifying and encouraging potential candidates to run who are already “favored” by party elites, thereby perpetuating the political culture of exclusivity. informal recruitment tends to draw from men and women who are close with party officials, if they are not already party activists themselves. the unintended gendered consequence of this informal recruitment effort is that party leaders may be choosing from male-dominated networks (crowder-meyer 2013; niven 2006; sanbonmatsu 2006). drawing from previous work that has found pennsylvania’s political culture to be traditional and conservative, i can anticipate that this culture will have an impact on candidate recruitment practices (brown 2015; deber 1982; hansen 1994). therefore, i argue that party elites will discuss the paucity of women in politics through a discriminatory lens of benevolent sexism. glick and fiske (2001) define benevolent discrimination as being in the “woman’s best interest,” which allows it to be more widely accepted and pervasive. political party strength and recruitment efforts county party strength derives a portion of its power from voter registration. therefore, in each of the 67 county parties in pennsylvania, one will find a party that is stronger than the other—a majority party and a minority party. i expect the stronger county party to engage in informal recruitment efforts. however, due to the overall political culture of the state that was deemed strong (hansen 1994; mayhew 1986), the minority county party may also 34 dana brown engage in informal recruitment activities as a default due to lack of resources. while the stronger party may be informally recruiting from an exclusive tier of individuals in the community; the weaker party may use its informal network to draw from as well, with differing electoral success. i also anticipate that the minority party may also engage in “volunteer” recruitment and allow candidates to self-identify and come forward to the party given the lack of institutional resources at their disposal. however, if desperate to field a candidate for an open position, the weaker party may engage in “formal” recruitment efforts. unfortunately, there are gendered outcomes in all of these types of recruitment efforts. methods thirty chairs and vice-chairs, representing 23 counties, were interviewed out of the universe of 281 chairs and vice-chairs across pennsylvania. the interviews were conducted via telephone between september 2012 and march 2013. of the 30 interviews, 18 were democrats and 12 were republicans, 14 women and 16 men. the interviews lasted, on average, half an hour and were recorded. the interview topics included: the party’s role in recruitment; the activities of the county party; party assistance with candidates; observations on the role of gender in seeking election; what groups, if any, the party works with to identify candidates; and observations as to why there are so few women in pennsylvania politics. interviews were chosen as a form of inquiry in order to understand party elites’ complex attitudes toward recruitment and more specifically what role gender plays, if any, in their local politics. i rely on an interpretative approach (soss 2005). the interpretative approach is one that allows the researcher to remain analytical and not simply code and accept a respondent’s description on face value. rather, researchers must make sense of statements contextually to give it meaning. analysis from the interviews, patterns emerged: 15 interviewees identified using informal recruitment through personal/organizational networks; 0 interviewees identified solely relying on formal recruitment through paid advertisements; 4 interviewees described a lack of recruitment by using the volunteer approach; 3 respondents spoke of using a mix of informal and formal models; and 7 spoke of recruiting by using both informal and volunteer efforts. this section will highlight examples of these patterns of recruitment discussed by pennsylvania county party leaders. gendered pathways to power 35 informal recruitment model the most prevalent of the various types of recruitment was informal, which is typified by 15 interviewees. the interviewees explained the informal process of party leaders talking to people they know about possible openings in upcoming elections. evidence of informal recruitment was plentiful and discussed by county party leaders in all pockets of the commonwealth. describing his candidate recruitment method, roger lund, the democratic chair of adams county, provides a thorough explanation of his county’s informal recruitment method and why formal advertisements are less desirable: it’s mostly through other party mechanisms because you can advertise something in the paper and you get some wing-nut that wants to be on your party’s ticket, and so we try to not do that. it’s more of a case of networking through people we know. we will put the word out through our county committee and say, ‘do you have people within your church, do you have people within civic organizations that belong to the fireman’s fire halls or whatever that might have an interest in running for office?’ and a lot of times we’ll also look at people who are sitting on borough councils, mayors throughout the county to see if they have any interest in running for offices that are higher level. so, we cast kind of a wide net, we don’t do any advertising per se, it is word of mouth. (lund 2012) in this introductory explanation of how recruitment is done at the county level, mr. lund identifies the possible gendered consequence of putting “the word out.” when instructing other committee members to recruit candidates, he begins by stating that they begin with an informal process by “networking through people we know” (lund 2012). he goes on to mention organizations that are heavily male dominated: fire halls, borough councils, and mayor’s offices. the “people we know” he mentions will most likely look much like the people doing the recruiting. mr. lund is describing a potentially gendered process with gendered consequences, even though he believes he casts “a wide net.” in sum, the process in adams county, located in south-central pennsylvania, is quite typical of county parties as their process begins internally and then looks outwardly at those related to the party network. this example is one that echoes the work of sanbonmatsu (2006) and crowder-meyer (2013) as it has all of the hallmarks of an informal recruitment process, yet the process is being led by the minority party of the county (the democratic party).5 36 dana brown similarly, the republican chair of blair county, mr. stickel, articulates the informal process that often begins internally to identify and recruit candidates before moving on to the outside community: i, as chairman or sometimes somebody who is on that committee will sort of identify somebody who has risen to the top. we get to know them through the campaign so somebody who’s out there now working for a presidential candidate, or one of our other candidates, who really steps up and takes a leadership role—that’s really the first chance we get to know some people. then sometimes we’ll discuss with them, “have you ever considered running for office? here are some needs.“ the second thing that we do, that we’re starting to do more and more, is work with the chamber of commerce, to work within other organizations to see people who are in leadership positions there who’ve done a good job and support our principles and our platform. (stickel 2012) again, it is important to note that county party leaders may not be intentionally recruiting from one gender more than the other through their informal recruitment process. however, many county parties continue to rely on the same internal and informal structures of the party that helped create the gender gap of elected officials in pennsylvania politics. further, the organization that the chair identifies to help with recruitment, the chamber of commerce, is heavily male dominated as it is an entity that promotes business interests to governing bodies. what is most interesting about mr. stickel’s interview is that while he believes he has an open-door policy on candidates, many of the tactics on how and when to recruit candidates can lead to favoring the male party regulars. mixed model: informal and volunteer jeff smith, republican chair of butler county, provides an example of informal networks and a volunteer model being deployed to recruit candidates by his republican party: we would talk to the committee people, and this is primarily at the municipal level, maybe talk to other municipal officials in that area to try to identify somebody. we’ve also—we’re trying to get the word out through the committee people through the periodic occasional speaking opportunities that if people are interested in running to be sure and contact me. (smith 2012) gendered pathways to power 37 in mr. smith’s example, republican committeemen and women are asked to dispatch around the county and speak to groups. in this instance they are relying on the party’s network to meet with organizations and recruit from the groups they speak to. as he continued with his statement, he made it clear that people were able and encouraged to self-identify and then be vetted by the party apparatus. one area of agreement among party leaders was incumbency protection. while not all county party leaders mentioned incumbency, when leaders did speak of it, they spoke of deferring to incumbents on their decision to run again. the process of most county party leaders was to allow incumbents first right of refusal to run, and if the incumbents declined to run, then and only then would the county parties begin to recruit for those seats. mixed model: formal and informal recruitment while no county party leader identified relying solely on formal recruitment efforts exemplified by paid advertisements, three county party leaders explained that they use formal and informal methods in order to recruit candidates. one of those county party leaders was allegheny county democratic committee chair dr. nancy mills. at the time of the interview, a special election was under way and dr. mills6 used that election as an example in many of her comments on recruitment. when asked if the recruitment process for the election was formal or informal she responded in the following way: i have been open to anybody who would call to inquire. now, this would just be the informal by word of mouth—the insiders know that the seat’s coming up, i let the public know too because i’ve been interviewed by the tribune review and the post-gazette on this subject. so, now to get into a formal invitation to apply . . . we send out a letter to all of the chairs of the different municipalities within the 42nd district to advise them that we are going to be nominating a candidate for that seat. we also advertise it on our website and we also send out a press release to all the media to advise the general public what seat it is, when it will be available, and what the filing dates are to be a candidate for the seat. so, we have informal and formal. (mills 2012) what is typical in her response is her reliance on informal “word of mouth” and the expectation that “insiders know that the seat’s coming up.” because it is a special election in the second-most populous county in the state, there is increased press coverage that many other elections would not garner. so, dr. mills, the party chair, uses the press to share the information with the 38 dana brown public as well as on the democratic party’s website. due to the fact that this is a special election, no primary was to take place—in order to get on the ballot, one needed to be nominated by the democratic party. hence, the role of “insiders” and party officials played very prominently. in allegheny county the democratic party relies on a mix of both formal and informal processes to ferret out candidates. more generally, dr. mills explains that recruitment is ongoing: we do not have a specific committee just to recruit candidates because it’s too specific . . . that’s why we have chairs in all of our municipalities. so, if they’re going to look for a candidate, for instance, for the school board in moon township, then the local chair is looking all the time . . . every meeting they go to within the community . . . you sort of get into the feel of it, you’re always looking for someone to run someday and so people . . . say you were in moon township and they saw you and thought, “boy, dana would be a great candidate,” they might invite you to be a member of the local committee so that you can learn the political process from the real grassroots and understand what the procedure is to become a candidate. (mills 2012) unfortunately, the informal recruitment process may also have a gendered outcome, as it relies on individuals’ own subjective ideas about what a leader looks and sounds like. we know from gender stereotype research that individuals can react to leadership styles in a very gendered way (bauer 2015, 2018; ditonto 2017; huddy and terkildsen 1993). however, mills makes it very clear that her party is actively recruiting and targeting women to run for public office. dr. mills is well aware of the interviewer’s role and work at the pennsylvania center for women and politics at chatham university and has participated in the center’s ready to run™ campaign training for women as a speaker on party politics. this is important to acknowledge because the interviewee kept actively stating the role of the party in recruiting women, yet at the time of the interview there was only one woman from the county serving in the state legislature. only recently, in the 2018 election, did allegheny county elect six women to the pennsylvania state house of representatives and two to the state senate.7 it is possible that social desirability affected her responses given how few women were actually serving at that time. i was able to determine that the allegheny county democratic committee (acdc) uses a mix of informal personal networks and formal news and website outlets as the primary mechanisms for recruitment. the volunteer model at the acdc was discouraged, as dr. mills stated, “it doesn’t work gendered pathways to power 39 by just coming in from the outside and say i think i’ll run. pay your dues, maybe that’s the easiest way to describe it. you hear it all the time. i hate that expression, but i think that it probably does apply” (mills 2012). one could also interpret that as the majority party in the county with 56% of the voters in the county supporting obama in 2012 (politico 2014), her discussion of volunteerism is a signal of the negative gatekeeping that occurs when a volunteer emerges. similar to mr. stickel, the republican chair of blair county, dr. mills first looks internally to insiders and her networks to recruit, but differs in that she favors “paying one’s dues” to the party before getting the support to run. paying one’s dues and being told to “wait your turn” are gendered responses with gendered consequences as it is men who have tended to be with the party for longer periods of time (sanbonmatsu 2006). other organizations use a mix of recruitment methods as well. as marilyn levin, chair of the democratic party of dauphin county stated: currently, we have a candidate recruitment committee. . . . they have been given a budget so that they can advertise in local newspapers or the major newspaper if they choose. . . . in the past . . . me and the candidate’s chairman did most of the work finding people. well, i don’t think that’s a successful way to build an organization, so i’ve set this new way up and we’ve expanded the candidate’s committee. i’ve given them free reign to go ahead and recruit candidates and interview candidates. (levin 2012) ms. levin articulated a process wherein a committee of individuals seeks potential candidates and reviews their resumes, and the two ways to reach those potential candidates, through paid advertisements and networks of the recruitment committee. volunteer recruitment model the volunteer model was articulated by four county party leaders. this model is one that waits for potential candidates to approach the political party committee. bill benner, republican chair of perry county, offers a primary example of relying on “volunteerism” to recruit candidates for public office: while it’s not a formal process, it’s when there is a vacancy, often someone has pre-positioned themselves to run for that vacancy, or perhaps two or three people have pre-positioned themselves to run for that vacancy. so, the committee themselves really is not engaged 40 dana brown actively in trying to go out and find folks, usually folks come out to us. (benner 2012) mr. benner makes clear that candidates are self-determined as the committee members respond only when candidates present themselves. even more to the point is a male democratic county party chair who did not want to be identified. when asked about his county party’s recruitment process he responded: “well, i don’t think there’s anything terribly serious about it; there are people who raise their hands and volunteer, so to speak, and then come to the county committee in search of support.” from this i gather that the committee is quite passive and does not seek candidates, but rather candidates self-identify. thus, the process can be inherently gendered favoring entrepreneurs who historically have been male (lawless and fox 2005, 2010; sanbonmatsu, carroll, and walsh 2009). another example of the volunteer recruitment approach can be found in the republican party of blair county. mr. donald belsey, party vicechair states, “as far as the process is concerned, no, it doesn’t exist. the most important thing that we come across is the fact, people themselves, if they opt to become candidates then they approach us” (belsey 2012). again, i would argue that this type of recruitment has a very gendered consequence. the lack of targeted recruitment and failure to ask women to run translates into fewer female candidates. both lawless and fox (2010) as well as crowder-meyer (2013) indicate that if and when parties do intentionally recruit women to run for public office, women are more likely to agree to be candidates. yet, this is not happening regularly across the county parties in pennsylvania. parties may go on to invoke any or all recruitment practices depending on the electoral climate at the time. the chair of the blair county republican party, mr. stickel discusses the intersection of recruitment practices, incumbency protection, and gatekeeping: sometimes people will come to us and say, “hey, i’d like to run.” let me go on to say that nobody needs my permission to run and that might be unique. i know that there are some county committees, not necessarily democrats or republicans are unique to that, but there are county committees or county chairmen that feel like you need to get their blessing to run. that’s not why i’m here or why our committee’s here. if you’re committed to run then we’ll help you. we only recruit candidates where there is no candidate, or where there’s essentially a very weak candidate. as a committee we don’t go out and recruit gendered pathways to power 41 candidates to run against incumbents, not that we absolutely support incumbents, but we’re not going to find somebody to run against them. (stickel 2012) mr. stickel argues that if a newcomer from outside the party structure wants to run and there is no incumbent, the party will not prevent him or her from running, which is not the case in all county parties. certainly, if you are an outsider coming to the party, they too will encourage you and you will not need to wait in order to run for public office. based on previous political science work, all of the recruitment models identified have a potential gendered consequence that favors male candidates. given all of the work done on the gendered political ambition gap (lawless and fox 2010) and knowing that men are more likely to run for office simply to “fulfill a long-term goal” (sanbonmatsu, carroll, and walsh 2009), the volunteer model leads us down a path where mostly males will self-identify as candidates. it is quite possible that many party leaders, including mr. benner, view the “volunteer” model as being gender neutral, but the political science literature points to a very gendered consequence that can favor male candidates from this recruitment practice. gatekeeping overall, there were only a few cases of gatekeeping articulated by the party leaders. previous work on pennsylvania has indicated that it is a strong party state, meaning that one would expect to have strong gatekeeping measures, especially that of a formidable endorsement process. therefore, political newcomers like women would have a difficult time breaking into this old system that essentially promotes from within. moreover, the pennsylvania party system has been previously described as the primary gatekeeper as to whether or not a candidate could even run, let alone seek the endorsement. a male republican county chair explains the role of many county parties regarding gatekeeping, recruitment, and endorsement: once upon a time before i was chairman [there] had [been] a very heavy machine, [county] party machine, and you see it a lot in the counties and suburban southeastern pennsylvania. montgomery county, delaware county, chester, bucks, these are known for having very strong machines such that, really the only way you get to run for office and have a viable chance of winning is if you have the blessing of that machine.8 42 dana brown a handful of examples offered by county party leaders in the interviews revealed that they mainly deterred candidates from running if they felt that the potential candidate lacked name recognition or had some type of criminal background. so, for some potential candidates, party leaders would redirect them and encourage them to involve themselves in the community more before running for office. if a potential candidate had a criminal background, they deterred the candidate from running to protect the party and the individual from humiliation. other leaders acted as gatekeepers by redirecting potential candidates to offices more appropriate to match the individual’s credentials. a republican male county party chair stated that he deterred candidates: not for any fundamental reason, meaning, not because i want to clear the field for anyone; but i have suggested to people that while they’re free to run, they may not have what’s really required to run at the level they’re choosing. and i would suggest that they try something more appropriate to them.9 the party leader’s words are very subjective here, which can lead to male selection bias (niven 2006). we know from experimental work (bauer 2015, 2018; ditonto 2017; huddy and terkildsen 1993) that gender stereotypes often inform how an individual evaluates candidates both on traits as well as on issue competencies. therefore, it is always a bit concerning when any party official has chosen to be the arbiter of experience in order to run. delving deeper into the process of gatekeeping, state senator wayne fontana who served briefly as vice-chair of the allegheny county democratic committee: so, in order to gain name recognition, in order to run a campaign to beat an incumbent possibly, it may take a lot of money, and it may not be able to be attained. so, you may have to wait. you may have to say, “well don’t run this time, run next time,” or you need to begin to work the political system and get your name out there on your own, a year or two ahead by just going out and meeting people and those kinds of things before you actually run for office. and a lot of times it’s a timing thing, it’s about the timing of the actual race. (fontana 2012) similar to senator fontana, christopher decker of the republican party of pike county explained that he might engage in negative gatekeeping through an “off-the-record conversation with a candidate and telling them that it gendered pathways to power 43 might not be in the best interest of the party just because it would cause a split, or they would lose . . . but it would have to take some very serious circumstances for that to happen” (decker 2012). other examples of gatekeeping were explicitly based on gender stereotypes. ruth ann shaffer, democratic vice-chair of york county, provided examples of when she and/or another party leader had to deter a candidate from running. ms. shaffer quickly offered an example involving a woman who was turned away to rethink running for school board until her children were older. she stated: it was a woman and she didn’t have, again it was for school board, and we told her she’d be perfectly fine to run for the school board, but she needed to be honest and realistic about how much time she would be able to give to the school board because she had—i think it was five children and they were all under the age of 16. education wise she was great, but since most of us had served on a school board, we knew how much time was involved and we told her to think about it and come back the following week. and she came back and thanked us for listening to her and she decided not to until her children were older and we said that would be great. she really would have been well qualified, but we didn’t know that she would have the time for that. we’re pretty frank. (shaffer 2012) based on ms. shaffer’s example, the county party leaders did not immediately turn the woman away from running, but they did plant the seed of doubt in her head and had her think about it. returning to the political ambition and confidence literature, it is not surprising that the woman erred on the side of caution about being able to manage the elective and domestic duties. additionally, a female county leader who has some authority on the matter deterred the potential candidate, which is not surprising given that both women and men are susceptible to perpetuating gender stereotypes. interestingly, not one county party leader gave an example of suggesting to a male candidate that he reconsider running because he had young children at home. while there are cases of negative gatekeeping across pennsylvania, there were some county party leaders who indicated that they were actively changing their by-laws to ensure that they were no longer gatekeepers. rather, they preferred to have the primary process take place and give voters the power to act in that capacity. one can chart this transition with fewer county parties engaging in an endorsement process than they once had and certainly with fewer leaders actively deterring candidates. however, when party leaders do 44 dana brown choose to deter folks, it could have a more negative impact on women’s candidacies than men’s—whether it is through subjective comments about “waiting your turn,” making sure the office sought and the candidate’s qualities are a match, or the sexist comments that women should wait until their childrearing responsibilities dissipate. pennsylvania’s political and social culture “it’s traditional.” throughout many interviews there was a statement, example, or insinuation that pennsylvania’s political, social, and cultural orientation was “traditional” in some fashion. however, party leaders were also quick to explain that both the state’s culture and party organizations were very slowly transitioning to a less conservative atmosphere. i did not specifically ask what the culture of the state was, but two questions in particular seemed to really draw it out: (1) “have you noticed any patterns that women and men take to get elected to county or state office in terms of past experience? recruitment? officeholding?” (2) “some people say that men make better candidates for some elective offices than women. or, that women make better candidates for some offices than men. based on your experience as a county party leader, why do you think people believe this?” through these questions, respondents established themselves in one of three camps: first, they believed that many citizens of pennsylvania, but not themselves, still hold onto strong gender stereotypes; second, they believed in traditional gender stereotypes, without explicitly stating it; or third, gender stereotypes may have mattered, but pennsylvania was slowly changing like the rest of the united states. in total, many leaders provided very stereotypic examples of offices that were better suited for men and women. by doing so, the county party leaders tangentially spoke about the culture of the political parties and their communities. william miller, democratic chair of clarion county, was reluctant and not proud to say it, but in his county, women rarely run for elective office. according to the pennsylvania center for women and politics at chatham university, only 21% of clarion county’s elected officials were women in 2012 when the interview took place. why? he states because it is “so traditional here” (miller 2012). when asked to further explain that statement, mr. miller clarified: well, i mean, you look back in history here, i doubt if there’s ever been a woman even run for sheriff, let alone serve, and the same with coroner. i’ve been here 30-some years and can’t ever remember a woman running for coroner. mostly the [female] candidates that have been gendered pathways to power 45 successful here have been in the prothonotary’s office, in the treasurer’s office. we’ve only ever had, that i can remember, one auditor that a woman had accepted that position. so, yeah that’s pretty much the way it has been. like i said the coroner and sheriff are the two primary examples. (miller 2012) he went on to explain that many women in his county are active in local politics and are engaged, but they are not running for office; rather, they are support staff to those positions. his explanation as to why women are not engaged on that electoral level is telling of the culture both socially and politically: and i think it might be the type of area we are. we have a very rural population here and it’s, i don’t want to say male dominated, but i guess there is a little bit of that and so i think that’s possibly it. the society up here is rural and, i don’t know whether it has to do with religion or just sociology, or whatever. (miller 2012) mr. miller and other county party leaders spoke of the cultural divide: rural versus urban areas. he also mentioned that the gender disparity in office might be a symptom of the lack of diversity in women’s professions in his rural area. he pointed out that if there are not many female lawyers in his county that will impact who runs for district attorney or judges, for example. perhaps women in his rural area do not feel that they can or should pursue the law as a profession because it goes beyond their construct of what a woman’s role is in their society. after all, there are plenty of women in the labor force in clarion county. according to palmer and simon (2012) these demographic variables are indicators of women’s presence in elected bodies. thus, the culture, the demographics, and party system collide in every county to affect women’s pathway and likelihood of holding elective office. in response to the question if there were any patterns in men and women getting elected to office, megan carpenter, republican chair of beaver county, said: i would have to say, sadly, that it is very rare for a woman to get elected here. we have two representatives on our side and a senator on our side who are all male. the other ones are all male that are on the democrat side. . . . it seems like it’s a lot harder for women to get elected quite honestly, and i think that’s regardless of your party. we do have a few row offices in the courthouse that are female that are democrats. (carpenter 2013) 46 dana brown ms. carpenter’s comment is one that was echoed by many county party leaders on both sides of the aisle. her quote makes sense, as there are so few women who hold or have held elective office in pennsylvania. however, according to some political leaders, like ms. carpenter, there seems to be some traction for female candidates running for county row offices. row offices are the countywide elective offices like controller, treasurer, prothonotary, coroner, register of wills, and so on. many of the offices are more administrative in nature. according to the pennsylvania center for women and politics at chatham university, women hold approximately 37% of the countywide positions. marcia williams, vice-chair of the adams county democratic committee, buoys the point: the one area where there are female candidates successful is in the county row offices. the clerk of courts, the prothonotary, the county treasurer; the men don’t seem to run for those offices. i guess because they’re considered “office work.” . . . the men are not running for those offices except on rare occasions . . . almost always female candidates of both political parties . . . so, we do have women in office in the county, but they are holding the administrative positions rather than the commissioner positions, or the state legislature positions. (williams 2012) ms. williams and ms. carpenter both notice the same pattern in their counties of women getting elected to the more administrative offices even though they are on opposite sides of the political aisle and are from different geographical areas. this is a pattern that, unfortunately, neatly maps gender stereotypes—returning to the notion that pennsylvania’s culture is traditional, which informs the recruitment efforts of both parties. it seems that women can and do run for office and assumingly are encouraged to do so for administrative row offices, but not necessarily the commissioner races or other policymaking offices. in sum, the social and political culture of pennsylvania is still overwhelmingly draped in gender stereotypes. positions with more executive or primary decision-making powers were identified as male positions and the administrative offices were identified as women’s work. one local office that was deemed to be better for male candidates was that of township supervisor, but that one needed a bit more explanation, which a.c. stickel, republican chair of blair county, provides: township supervisors, that used to be really known more as a county road supervisor, or township road supervisor. i know that sounds very gendered pathways to power 47 sexist that a woman can’t drive a dump-truck, but that used to be the way it was, not so much anymore as the townships have grown and become larger municipal governments. (stickel 2012) mr. stickel and a few other leaders were quick to explain the evolution of the township supervisor position and why it has roots in a gendered division of labor. per mr. stickel’s own explanation, men may make better candidates for this position because historically it is a position that required manual labor, which women were/are believed unable to do successfully. it is also possible that women are less likely to seek such positions because they know that the work is gendered and therefore they would not taken seriously as a contender for the office. i argue that it is beliefs about the nature of political offices, like township supervisor, row offices, and others, that inform the recruitment efforts. all of these ideas are built on gender stereotypes, which are deeply rooted in the political and cultural psyche of pennsylvanians. in sum, the culture of the county party is one that is rather conservative and relies on gender stereotypes to largely inform who should be active in politics as well as how they should be involved. the expectation seems to be that women and men follow gender stereotypes and are involved in politics based on gender roles. women may be able to be accepted as leaders as long as their domains are contained within “women’s work” like administrative row offices and men take on positions like commissioner and district attorney. discussion many scholars have identified the political party as an important variable in understanding the dearth of women in elective office (cotter et al. 1984; deber 1982; hansen 1994; mayhew 1986; niven 2006; sanbonmatsu 2006; sorauf 1963). to begin to dissect this relationship, i have focused on the possible role that candidate recruitment has played in oversupplying male candidates to the pennsylvania electorate. thirty interviews were conducted representing at least 23 different counties. as one would suspect, each county has its own culture and storied past when it comes to politics, yet some patterns did begin to emerge as county leaders spoke of their recruitment process. a majority of the interviewees spoke of an informal recruitment process that is typified by first speaking to individuals who are related to the political party structure and then moving outward to trusted organizations and clubs. many leaders believe this to be a gender-neutral process in that they are “casting a wide net,” by speaking to different individuals and organizations. we know that these circles are gendered (crowder-meyer 2013; sanbonmatsu 48 dana brown 2006). additionally, some of the organizations cited for assistance with recruitment have a traditionally male-dominated membership. if you are a county party leader recruiting from predominantly male spaces, you will get predominantly male candidates for public office. similarly, there were three leaders that spoke of recruitment in terms of using both an informal and formal process. again, the party leaders articulated the formal process as inclusive and open to the community. however, men are more likely to believe themselves fit to serve, even when coming from the “feeder” professions to politics like business and the law (lawless and fox 2010). party leaders who rely on formal advertisements to the community are unintentionally allowing a gendered process to take place. lastly, the third unique type of recruitment was described as a volunteer model. party leaders again believed that they were leaving their door wide open to many different candidates by allowing community members to selfidentify as candidates. similar to the formal recruitment model, the process is inherently gendered. the only difference is that the county party is taking a more passive role than those that employ the formal model. taken together, all of these types of recruitment lead to an oversupply of male candidates for the pennsylvania electorate. only one county party chair spoke of intentionally including women as part of the pool of candidates. none of the other county party leaders spoke of engaging in an intentionally gender-inclusive effort for candidate recruitment. as the interviews continued, it became clear that the paucity of women in pennsylvania politics was not solely due to candidate recruitment processes, as those (in)actions do not occur in a vacuum. rather, the gender imbalance in elective office is a culmination of a gendered candidate-recruitment process, a conservative culture, and a gendered gatekeeping process by the parties. by the way the leaders share their stories, women are less willing to volunteer to become candidates and they are recruited at a lower rate because they are not in the informal circles that are staged as the upcoming farm team. when women did run, party officials were quick to point out what positions they were most likely to run for—administrative row offices at the county level. overall, according to the party leaders, the lack of women in pennsylvania politics is rooted in traditional gender stereotypes as women are not found in the informal circles in which candidate recruitment occurs and/or because women do not want to volunteer for public leadership, as women are “too smart for politics.” male and female county party leaders cited family work-life balance as well as women not being readily available as a reason for the gender gap. gendered pathways to power 49 another observation was confirmed with the interview data and that was the role that gender stereotypes played in matching potential candidates to public office. very clear patterns emerged in the interview data: male candidates would be better at the more “masculine” offices that focused on law, order, and executive powers, whereas female candidates would be better at offices that focused on justice and legislative and administrative powers. so, when women can and do run for office, they should run for the feminine offices. this line of thinking stems directly from the traditional and conservative culture described by the party leaders. another narrative that unveiled itself in the interviews was also one of unawareness of the gendered nature of their gatekeeping role. the leaders often believed that they were sage advice givers, informing potential candidates of conflicts and time commitments. yet, examples provided were ones that deterred women from running for office. other examples of gatekeeping were more non-descript and gave loose responses about how one evaluates leadership skills. unfortunately, again, this can lead to a male selection bias (niven 2006). yet, even with all of these variables at play to depress women’s candidacies, there were increases of women’s representation at both the state and federal levels. these increases coincide with an increase in the number of women’s organizations working to increase descriptive representation. examples of such independent political interventions on behalf of women include political action committees, organizations, and programs.10 prior research claims independent organizations can play a positive role in increasing gender diversity among candidates (sanbonmatsu 2006). future research could inquire as to the effectiveness of these women’s organizations and programs and how they may shape the balance of power in pennsylvania’s governing institutions. are women’s candidacies more successful with the support or education provided by one of these entities? how do these entities impact the traditional culture of the state? if change is to come to the state of pennsylvania to provide for greater descriptive representation of its inhabitants, the change will most likely need to occur outside of the pre-existing party structure. in order to dramatically increase women’s representation at the local, state, and federal levels in pennsylvania, candidate recruitment processes must be intentionally diverse and inclusive. given the evidence provided by this study, there is a potentially positive role for county party leaders to play in diversifying the pool of candidates, as crowder-meyer (2013) anticipates. however, education around the gendered impact of the party leaders’ (non)actions would be necessary for change to occur. 50 dana brown notes 1. some recent studies investigating the roots of this underrepresentation have fallen into the following categories: lack of political ambition to run among potential female candidates (bauer 2015, 2018; fox and lawless 2004; kanthak and woon 2015; shafer 2008); lack of recruitment efforts by political parties and elites (crowder-meyer 2013; niven 1998; sanbonmatsu 2006); institutional constraints such as the incumbency advantage (burrell 1994; fox 1997); and reliance on gender stereotypes by voters (bauer 2015, 2018; ditonto and mattes 2018; huddy and terkildsen 1993; sanbonmatsu 2002). 2. niven surveyed the county chairs of new jersey, california, ohio, and tennessee. 3. the six states included in sanbonmatsu’s (2006) study are ohio, alabama, north carolina, massachusetts, colorado, and iowa. 4. the national conference of state legislatures identifies four states that have fulltime professional legislatures: california, michigan, new york, and pennsylvania. of those four, michigan has the highest proportion of women in its state legislature at a rate of 35.8%. pennsylvania holds the lowest percentage of the four states. 5. an example of democrats being the minority party in adams county is the fact that barack obama received only 35% of the county vote in 2012. 6. at the time of this publication dr. mills is serving as chair of the democratic party of the state of pennsylvania. 7. at the time of the interview, one woman from allegheny county was serving in the pennsylvania state house of representatives, erin molchany. however, she did not receive the party’s endorsement in 2012 or 2014. she lost the party’s 2012 endorsement to martin schmotzer, who was accused of stealing $50,000 from allegheny county when he worked there in 1997. she lost the 2014 endorsement to an incumbent democratic colleague, state rep. harry readshaw, after redistricting. 8. confidential interviewee, 2012. 9. confidential interviewee, 2012. 10. anne anstine excellence in public service series, emerge pennsylvania, women for the future pennsylvania, ready to run campaign training for women, and representpa. references baer, denise. 2013. “welcome to the party? leadership, ambition, and support among elites.” in women & executive office: pathways and performance, ed. melody rose. boulder, co: lynne rienner, 181–208. bauer, nichole m. 2015. “emotional, sensitive, and unfit for office? gender stereotype activation and support female candidates.” political psychology 36 (december): 691–708. ———. 2018. “untangling the relationship between partisanship, gender, stereotypes, and support for female candidates.” journal for women, politics & policy 39 (1): 1–25. belsey, donald. 2012. telephone interview by dana brown. november 19. benner, bill. 2012. telephone interview by dana brown. november 19. brown, dana. 2015. “parties matter: the impact of pennsylvania’s parties on women’s local officeholding.” phd diss., rutgers university. burrell, barbara c. 1993. “party decline, party transformation, and gender politics: the usa.” in gender and party politics, eds. joni lovenduski and pippa norris. london: sage, 291–308. gendered pathways to power 51 ———. 1994. a woman’s place is in the house: campaigning for congress in the feminist era. ann arbor: university of michigan press. carpenter, megan. 2013. telephone interview by dana brown. may 13. cotter, cornelius p., james l. gibson, john f. bibby, and robert j. huckshorn. 1984. party organizations in american politics. new york: praeger. crowder-meyer, melody. 2010. “local parties, local candidates, and women’s representation: how county parties affect who runs for and wins political office.” phd diss., princeton university. ———. 2013. “gendered recruitment without trying: how local party recruiters affect women’s representation.” politics & gender 9 (december): 390–413. deber, raisa. 1982. “‘the fault, dear brutus’: women as congressional candidates in pennsylvania.” the journal of politics 44 (may): 463–479. decker, christopher. 2012. telephone interview by dana brown. october 31. ditonto, tessa. 2017. “a high bar or a double standard? gender, competence, and information in political campaigns.” political behavior 39 (june): 301–325. ditonto, tessa, and kyle mattes. 2018. “differences in appearance-based trait inferences for male and female political candidates.” journal of women, politics & policy 39 (4): 430–450. dolan, julie, melissa deckman, and michele l. swers. 2007. women and politics: paths to power and political influence. upper saddle river, nj: prentice hall. fontana, wayne. 2012. telephone interview by dana brown. september 19. fox, richard l. 1997. gender dynamics in congressional elections. thousand oaks, ca: sage. fox, richard l., and jennifer lawless. 2004. “entering the arena? gender and the decision to run for office.” american journal of political science 48 (april): 264–280. glick, peter, and susan t. fiske. 2001. “an ambivalent alliance: hostile and benevolent sexism as complimentary justifications of gender inequality.” american psychologist 56 (february): 109–118. hansen, susan b. 1994. “lynn yeakel versus arlen specter in pennsylvania: why she lost.” in the year of the woman, eds. elizabeth adell cook, sue thomas, and clyde wilcox. boulder, co: westview, 85–108. huddy, leonie, and nayda terkildsen. 1993. “gender stereotypes and the perception of male and female candidates.” american journal of political science 37 (february): 119–147. kanthak, kristin, and jonathan woon. 2015. “women don’t run? election aversion and candidate entry.” american journal of political science 59 (july): 595–612. lawless, jennifer l., and richard l. fox. 2005. it takes a candidate: why women don’t run for office. new york: cambridge university press. ———. 2010. it still takes a candidate: why women don’t run for office. new york: cambridge university press. levin, marilyn. 2012. telephone interview by dana brown. october 25. lund, roger. 2012. telephone interview by dana brown. september 24. mayhew, david r. 1986. placing parties in american politics: organization, electoral settings, and government activity in the twentieth century. princeton, nj: princeton university press. miller, william. 2012. telephone interview by dana brown. september 25. mills, nancy. 2012. telephone interview by dana brown. november 30. ncsl (national conference of state legislatures). 2017. “full and part-time legislatures.” http://www.ncsl.org/legislatures-elections/legislatures/full-and-part-time -legislatures.aspx. accessed december 2, 2019. 52 dana brown niven, david. 1998. the missing majority: the recruitment of women as state legislative candidates. westport, ct: praeger. ———. 2006. “throwing your hat out of the ring: negative recruitment and the gender imbalance in state legislative candidacy.” politics & gender 2 (december): 473–489. palmer, barbara, and dennis simon. 2012. women & congressional elections: a century of change. boulder, co: lynne rienner. politico. 2014. “2012 pennsylvania presidential election results.” http://www.politico .com/2012-election/results/president/pennsylvania/. accessed may 21, 2014. sanbonmatsu, kira. 2002. “gender stereotypes and vote choice.” american journal of political science 46 (january): 20–34. ———. 2006. where women run: gender and party in the american states. ann arbor: university of michigan press. sanbonmatsu, kira, susan j. carroll, and debbie walsh. 2009. poised to run: women’s pathways to the state legislature. center for american women and politics, eagleton institute of politics, rutgers university. available at http://www.cawp.rutgers .edu/research/reports/poisedtorun.pdf. shafer, karen. 2008. “who wants to run for office? political ambition among women activists.” phd diss., arizona state university. shaffer, ruth ann. 2012. telephone interview by dana brown. october 11. smith, jeff. 2012. telephone interview by dana brown. september 14. sorauf, frank j. 1963. party and representation: legislative politics in pennsylvania. new york: atheron. soss, joe. 2005. “talking our way to meaningful explanations: a practice-centered view of interviewing for interpretive research.” in interpretation and method: empirical research methods and the interpretive turn, eds. dvora yanow and peregrine schwartz-shea. armonk, ny: m.e. sharpe, 127–149. stickel, a.c. 2012. telephone interview by dana brown. october 30. trounstine, jessica. 2008. political monopolies in american cities: the rise and fall of bosses and reformers. chicago: university of chicago press. williams, marcia. 2012. telephone interview by dana brown. september 25. dana m. brown is the executive director of the pennsylvania center for women and politics and assistant professor of political science at chatham university. she has presented research on women in politics, political psychology, political media, and political participation by women of color. she is also active in the community. she currently serves in the following capacities: governor wolf ’s pennsylvania commission for women, plen’s (public leadership education network) board of directors, adagio health’s advisory council, a delegate to the vision 2020 program at drexel university, and the pennsylvania advisory committee to the u.s. global leadership coalition. structure bookmarks candidate recruitment all politics is local candidate recruitment typology political party strength and recruitment efforts pennsylvania’s political and social culture discussion notes references commonwealth: a journal of political science  volume 15, number 1  may 2009 policy issue on emergency management  2009 ppsa/lorl, pa house of reps. issn 0890-2410 the state role in emergency management: significant challenges beverly a. cigler, phd professor of public policy and administration penn state harrisburg states and the national government have traditionally performed facilitating, not dominating, roles in emergency management. after 9/11, the threat of terrorists on our homeland led to the creation of a new national structure for responding to disasters and thrust the national government into a more dominating role. the state’s role within the emergency management system is both complex and unsettled in this new era. the “intergovernmental paradox of emergency management” remains: the governments least likely to perceive the threat of disaster as a very high priority (local governments) are at center stage in terms of responsibility and are limited in their capacity – financial, managerial, technical and political will – to deal with hazards. this places the states into a pivotal role as a capacity-builder through information generation and dissemination roles for their local governments, and, perhaps, regulation. it also means that the states must be ever attentive to their role in relation to that of the national government. this essay examines the key roles of state government within the emergency management system. these are: 1) the facilitation of local disaster mitigation; 2) assisting the public and elected and appointed leadership in understanding risk and mitigating disasters; 3) building the capacity of first responders by strengthening their preparedness and response capabilities; and 4) paying increased attention to shaping the environment in which the state and local governments operate within the federal emergency management system. much of the state role is direct capacity-building directed at local governments, citizens, and first responders. much involves money and legal issues. 76 the state role in emergency management: significant challenges disaster mitigation calling a flood an “act of nature” or a “natural disaster” is largely a misnomer. floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires, subsidence, drought, and earthquakes are “natural hazards” but human actions make them disasters. new orleans, most of which sits below sea level, is a dramatic example of placing people and property in harm’s way. most americans live within an easy drive of our hazard-prone coasts and the majority of our communities are located in floodplains, leaving most of us at risk. especially vulnerable are the poor, who don’t have the transportation to flee harm, money for shelter, and savings to ease unemployment. after a disaster, rebuilding occurs too often without plans that take into account the interdependence of the human-built and natural environments. at risk from many hazards, both human-made and natural, pennsylvania is especially prone to flooding, with their toll on lives and property. even small floods can have significant cumulative damages and public safety impacts. new developments often are not compatible with the floodplain. the national flood insurance program, which offers individual property owners flood insurance, is underutilized for purchasing insurance. without “teeth” in the local ordinances, or strong enforcement, people and property are left vulnerable. dealing with floods requires coming to terms with the intergovernmental paradox. floods, as is the case with other disasters, are low probability, high consequence events. from the national government's perspective, floods are a major problem. for the state and local levels, the damages experienced are generally fewer from that level of government's viewpoint. local governments are the least likely to perceive of flooding as important and, thus, give the hazard low priority on the agenda – until an event occurs. structural vs. non-structural mitigation options urban development over many decades has exacerbated the flood problem, with the rate of urban growth in floodplains far exceeding that of other areas. it is not nature that is changing; instead, people make the environment more prone to catastrophic events and themselves more vulnerable to disasters. traditional public policy attempts to keep floods away from people and property through costly flood control structures beverly a. cigler 77 (dams, reservoirs, dikes, levees, floodwalls, channel alterations). flood prevention can result from these structural options, which are heavily funded by the national government. structural options are not always reliable – levees can be topped and breached and dams can break. once structures are built, a false sense of security results, especially when maintenance and monitoring are neglected. despite many successful structural projects, they can encourage encroachment in other areas, leading to progressive invasion of floodplains and relentless growth of per capita flood losses. a different policy approach, based upon the realistic understanding that floods are inevitable, aims to use cost-effective measures to keep people away from waters that may flood. nonstructural options include regulations, education, financial incentives, and technical assistance. examples are zoning and other land use regulations, elevation and other flood proofing of buildings, flood insurance, flood warning systems, land acquisition, permanent property relocation, and improved disaster preparedness and response planning. such options aim to reduce the flood hazard for people and property, with a commitment to long-term management of all factors that affect flood risk. a balanced approach toward floodplain "management" through a wise combination of structural and nonstructural, cost-effective options is slowly replacing flood "control" as the dominant philosophy. if owners of buildings in a floodplain assume that risk is minimal and that the costs of flood proofing through elevation of structures is too high, damages from the inevitable flood will increase. if flood warning systems or evacuation routes are neglected, a failed levee or reservoir may have catastrophic consequences. floodplain management means that local governments acquire wetlands to serve as natural flood basins and require builders to create detention areas for flood waters. land uses that are compatible with the floodplain and occasional flood, e.g., parks, ballfields, greenways, can occur in the floodplain and some floodplain can be preserved. floodproofing requirements (privately constructed detention ponds and placement of buildings on piers) can also help steer development away from floodprone areas. sound land use techniques are an alternative to costly structural options for flood prevention. locating people and property away from harm outside of the floodplain, raising structures on stilts, using floodplains for uses compatible with floods (such as parks that can dry 78 the state role in emergency management: significant challenges out and not houses to be destroyed by water, mold, and seepage of toxins), and using stringent building codes are examples. local governments are most responsible for sound land use policies but weakest in capacity, especially political will. it is in the area of hazard mitigation that the “intergovernmental paradox” is most disconcerting. and, this is the area is which proactive states can have considerable impact. damages caused by natural hazards are inevitable but losses of lives and property can be reduced. policymakers need to plan to make the human-made and natural environments work together to improve quality of life and public health in equitable ways. the american public may be tiring of having its federal tax dollar pay for repetitive flood losses. we may be moving toward a time in which the state and local governments have little option but to get more serious about land use measures to mitigate losses. natural disasters are inevitable but losses of life and property can be reduced. policymakers need to plan to make the human-made and natural environments work together to improve quality of life and public health in equitable ways. the state role in mitigation is pivotal. most local governments are small and have relatively limited technical and financial resources, including that for public planning. the states can serve as information generators and disseminators, as well as regulators (requiring building codes), if that need is perceived. public and leader preparedness a major part of preparing the public for disaster events is to develop a realistic view of risk. human tragedy resulting from a disaster event is often caused by the failure of so many to evacuate the affected area. some people don’t hear about an evacuation order. some are too sick to comply. others are without transportation. a small number simply refuse, not wanting to leave their homes. they may be fearful of losing their possessions due to the impending emergency or because of anticipated looting. some not leaving may feel secure. others may have had a negative evacuation experience previously and think they know the community and its risks but underestimate them. mandatory evacuation orders are difficult to implement in our democracy. quarantines during a pandemic may be even more problematic. some communities use innovative approaches to implement beverly a. cigler 79 evacuation orders, such as the “magic marker” strategy of giving residents a marker and telling them to write their name and social security number on their bodies so it will be easier to identify fatalities. the “good samaritan” approach expects and urges the most able to take care of the aged, the disabled, the very young, the poor, etc. government’s ability to quarantine effectively on a large scale has not been tested. at a time when we must protect against both natural and humanmade disasters, risk perceptions significantly shape policies. alarm about terrorist-induced emergencies leads to reluctant sharing of evacuation plans fully with the general public. a more balanced approach to secrecy and security needs requires educating the public fully about plans and working toward their implementation. many people misperceive risks from hurricanes and/or floods, which are a greater threat than winds from hurricanes. our national government pursued policies after 9/11 that mitigated against and prepared for terrorist events more than for the more typical disasters, such as floods that have taken the most lives and destroyed the most property. governments and people underestimate some risks and overestimate others. an important state role is to provide accurate information to citizens and to elected and appointed officials about the nature and types of risk for which citizens are most vulnerable. pennsylvania’s residents should know what hazards exist in their area and have a sense of which are most threatening. as with mitigation, the state role in information generation and dissemination is paramount. as a nation, we do not have a strong track record in perceiving risks: we are getting more obese and fail to link weight gain to adverse health impacts. cigarette smokers often don’t perceive the link between their habits and the risk of lung cancer. misperceiving risk, many people habitually drink alcohol and drive. many motorcyclists choose to drive without helmets. our credit card-dependent society has checkbooks that don’t balance, empty savings accounts, and increased bankruptcy declarations, in part because economic risks are misperceived. americans typically don’t save adequately for their retirements, not linking living longer to having less financial means. more americans than ever live misperceived risks and live in hazard-prone areas. floodplain dwellers often don’t purchase floodplain insurance. those aging usually don’t purchase long term care insurance. 80 the state role in emergency management: significant challenges risk perception is influenced by experience and education. members of the general public are usually the “first responders” in an emergency, either as victims or helpers. each of us has primary responsibility for ourselves, having to balance our rights with our responsibilities. in our democracy, we have choice over most of the decisions we make. one of the most useful actions we can take is to know our risks and decide how we will deal with them. state government plays a significant role in using its capabilities to measure risk accurately and to convey risk in language understandable to the general public. state government can take care to structure its emergency management operation to avoid neglect of disasters tied to natural hazards, compared to the more infrequent human-made terrorist-related disasters. post-katrina, the national government was strongly criticized for placing the federal emergency management agency (fema) within the department of homeland security and removing its preparedness responsibilities, cutting budgets and personnel, and failing to appoint professional emergency managers to high levels of responsibility, including direct reporting to the president. while many of the failings have been reversed, the states need to reconcile their organization for handling homeland security issues, broadly defined to include national security and natural hazards. building the capacity of first responders during catastrophic events it can seem as if everyone is in charge but working at cross-purposes. in reality, there is no “one” in charge. multiple and diverse people and entities are part of disaster response and intergovernmental and intersector coordination and collaboration are necessary but difficult, especially due to the need for quickness. lost responsibility and lost accountability result. in the years since hurricane katrina, much attention has rightly been devoted to improving the intergovernmental response mechanisms to disasters. while all disasters occur locally and the initial response is local, large scale disasters require well planned and coordinated actions among a myriad of actors at all levels. beverly a. cigler 81 preparedness and risk the “first responders” in a disaster are typically characterized as local law enforcement officers, firefighters, and emergency medical personnel. yet, it is the victims caught in the disaster, or those who assist them, who are the very first responders. they must be prepared to take major responsibility for the first response to a disaster event. local police, fire, and emergency medical personnel must be prepared to take major responsibility for the first 24 to 72 hours of a disaster event. specific actions of potential disaster victims include completion of first aid training; developing an evacuation plan for leaving one’s home in an emergency; having a disaster supply kit with water, food, medicine, and other supplies; selecting a person who lives outside of one’s geographic region whom family members can contact if they become separated after an emergency; and establishing a specific meeting place to reunite in the event that family members cannot return home. we tend to neglect the need to educate individuals and families both about the risk of disasters and how they might help when one strikes. we also tend to overlook the first responder role of planners and policymakers who can change the relative threat of disaster. similarly, we neglect the role of the private sector entities that own approximately 85% of a community’s infrastructure and we pay inadequate attention to the roles of the large and diverse non-profit community. for all of these actors, the states, once again, can play major roles in information generation and dissemination, and in bringing actors together. americans now have their lowest fear of terrorist’s attacks since 9/11. a readiness quotient survey conducted for national preparedness month in september 2008, found that on a scale of 1 to 10, the nation’s collective level of preparedness or readiness quotient (rq) decreased from 4.14 the prior september to 3.57 (http://www.whatsyourrq.org/). the council for excellence in government developed the online rq test to measure our readiness quotient. americans are not prepared for water shortages and fuel shortages or for a disaster of any kind. relatively few have a specific plan for evacuation and claim to have no supplies for an emergency. only 36% of respondents claim to have a disaster supply kit in a designated place. just 32% have made a communication plan to keep in touch with loved ones in case of emergencies. only 27% have set a meeting place for family members in case they get separated by a http://www.whatsyourrq.org/ 82 the state role in emergency management: significant challenges disaster. only 48% know whether their local government has an emergency or disaster plan. business can play an important role in public preparedness. the rq survey shows that employees are better prepared if their employer has a plan and has practiced that plan. if the employer had a plan, individuals had an average rq score of 4.0. those who either didn’t know if their employer had a plan or whose employer didn’t have a plan had an average rq score of 2.7. seventy-three percent of employees reported that their employer has an emergency plan. of those, 65% practiced the plan in the last year. schools and daycare centers play a strong role in public readiness and parents are better prepared if their children’s schools or daycare centers have a plan that is practiced. the u.s. center for disease control and prevention promotes a range of “readiness initiatives” for cities in public health emergencies. in recent years, the white house has promoted the fostering of a culture of preparedness to permeate all levels of society so that families, businesses, and government agencies make emergency planning a routine concern. most people, however, think that they can judge the risk of prospective hazards accurately and, thus, don’t take the necessary precautions. even when people live close to major hazards, they may not take an interest in preparedness. post-9/11 and post-katrina, half of survey respondents in an n.y.u. center for catastrophe preparedness and response study in october 2005, said that their level of preparedness was about the same as before 9/11 and 4 percent claimed to be somewhat or much less prepared. after katrina, many americans lost confidence in government’s ability to assist in crises. a 2006 n.y.u. survey found 50 percent of respondents saying they have an emergency supply kit in their homes but only a third of those had enough food and water to last three days. half of the respondents said that if they had to evacuate they would drive or take a taxi, despite frequent warnings about gridlock. thirty-six percent claim to have no household emergency plan at all and no way to reunite with family or friends during a crisis. personal preparedness can – and must – be facilitated by government. state governments, especially, can work to build the capacity of businesses, schools, daycare centers, local governments, and individuals to prepare for emergencies by designing and providing emergency kits, reviewing plans, and any of a number of other facilitating, enabling behaviors. at the mitigation or prevention stage of a beverly a. cigler 83 disaster responsibility and accountability, problems arise long before a hazard creates a disaster event. this can mean the difference between an emergency and a disaster of catastrophic proportion. legal issues there are several major areas of concern regarding national/state, interstate, state/regional, and state/municipal relations in emergency management that need continuous attention from the states. these include: 1) sorting out what a catastrophic disaster is; 2) sorting out who does what and when; and 3) the role of the military in supplementing the states. catastrophic events planning for emergency response too often is based on the last disaster and not the next one. this is why so much attention has to be paid to improvements based on after-action reports and studies of preparedness and response. a pre-condition however, is the need to sort out what authority is appropriate and applicable for each level of government in a catastrophe. only after doing that can unresolved issues involving communication and coordination problems during response, and recovery, be addressed. the magnitude of a threat, the vulnerability to communities and to the state and nation, and/or the consequence of the disaster in terms of lives and property lost or national security should be of the highest concern in shaping the emergency management system. a significant but little debated consideration is the threshold of severity in terms of size, scope, nature, and consequences of a disaster event that should define when the national government should have greater authority. during the katrina response, the laws and regulations among and between governments involved were poorly understood and communicated, confounding the response. states and the national government were at odds, for example, over what was requested by the states, what was possible, and what the conditions of aid would be. the public and media commentators were confused over the responsibilities and authorities of the military and federal officials. 84 the state role in emergency management: significant challenges who does what before and after the disaster by design and necessity, dealing with emergencies involves complex relations among all levels of government in sharing responsibilities. cooperation is needed along vertical lines (national-state-local) and along horizontal lines (municipal-municipal, regional). leadership that builds collaborative relationships in our decentralized governance system is required. we expected a greater role for the national government in the katrina disaster, especially through its broad authority to respond to a major disaster through rapid deployment of "key essential resources," including medical teams and supplies, food and water, transportable shelters, and urban search and rescue teams. just as the federal role is unsettled for catastrophic events, no single federal agency has a clear legal mandate to organize the rebuilding or repair of public housing, federal subsidized rentals, or other affordable housing. fema has more of a mandate and money than the department of housing and urban development (hud), but little expertise. on the other hand, hud has expertise but no legal mandate. the stafford act of 1988 gives fema responsibility for housing 18 months after a disaster declaration but a truly catastrophic event such as katrina required a much longer period, especially because low income housing tends to be older, less sturdy, and not retrofitted, compared to other housing. just as the nation attempts to sort our roles and responsibilities among national actors during recovery, the states need to ensure that such parallel functions have been sorted out at the state level. interest in hazard mitigation has risen with the rising costs of natural hazard events. with the disaster mitigation act of 2000, congress sought to establish a national hazard mitigation program to reduce the loss of life and property, human suffering, economic disruption, and resulting disaster assistance costs from natural hazard events, as well as to provide pre-disaster mitigation funding to assist states and local governments in implementing mitigation measures. other measures to improve state and local hazard mitigation planning were established. fema plays a central role in hazard mitigation through its grants programs and through various capacity building efforts. a number of other federal agencies such as the department of interior, department of agriculture, department of commerce, and the corps of engineers, have responsibilities related to natural hazard mitigation. the states play a central role in facilitating sound hazard mitigation policies at that level beverly a. cigler 85 and with their local governments, and must work to establish the appropriate relationships with the myriad of agencies involved in mitigation. the department of homeland security (dhs), through its urban area security initiative (uasi) regions, requires multiple jurisdictions within a region to jointly administer federal funds for police and fire, for example. in years past, funds were used for purchasing equipment but some uasi districts, beginning in fiscal 2008, can be used only for planning. states can play an important role in helping to establish mechanisms that allow for joint action via a coordinated response. the emergency operations center (eoc) is central to the communication system needed for response. a longstanding barrier to the flow of information that ensures timely situational awareness and allows strategic and tactical orders to reach the appropriate people in timely ways is interoperability. in part, this is a technical problem that is being increasingly addressed by the federal government. interoperability also requires effective coordination across diverse agencies. law enforcement and intelligence units have been working to share information and tighten coordination since 9/11 through fusion centers. among many of the nation’s 60 fusion centers, all hazards approaches are being embraced. there is no one model for a fusion center’s structure but data fusion through the exchange of information from various sources and then analysis turns information and intelligence into actionable knowledge. pennsylvania state officials would be wise to think comprehensively about the types of information they need in the developing fusion center – antiterrorism intelligence, general law enforcement, weather reports, etc. technological sophistication can move available information and analysis to new levels and deal with multiple hazards missions. military-civilian relations after 9/11, the department of defense (dod) needed a more integrated military response to an attack on the homeland. the u.s. northern command (northcom) was established in october 2002 to provide command and control of dod homeland defense efforts and to coordinate defense support of civil authorities. while dhs is the lead federal agency for homeland security, dod is the lead federal agency for 86 the state role in emergency management: significant challenges homeland defense, defined as the protection of united states sovereignty, territory, domestic population, and critical defense infrastructure against external threats and aggression against the united states contributes through its military missions overseas and homeland defense and civil support operations. the current national response framework involves a stepped series of responses to a disaster, beginning with local authorities, state authorities, and outside assistance from other states. when those capabilities are exceeded, federal assistance is involved and the dod might be asked to provide assistance. northcom’s area of responsibility includes all 49 states in north america and the district of columbia and it works with other dod organizations northcom is hampered in executing its plans because dhs and the states have not provided the necessary information. for example, as of mid-2008, northcom had not systematically reviewed state emergency plans. few regularly assigned military forces have traditionally been assigned to northcom and it has difficulty monitoring the readiness of military units for its civil support mission. neither the dod nor the states, in fact, have fully determined the national guard bureau’s (ngb) requirements for civil support operations in the united states in the short term, reform is necessary to increase coordination among dod entities and commands, including the ngb and northcom, to ensure better national security outcomes. planning and funding for civil support missions of the national guard (ng) have traditionally been considered a state responsibility, although the war fighting capabilities provided to the ng are facilitative. since 9/11, the ng has been in a key role in responding to catastrophic natural disasters and for homeland security-related events of national significance. the state and federal government have a shared interest in preparing the ng to conduct civil support missions. there is a need to integrate not just the response to an incident, but also the plans of many entities at all levels involved in responding to such incidents. the states need to better coordinate with northcom and the ngb on a process for requesting, obtaining, and using information on state emergency plans and capabilities. perhaps the biggest issue regarding the interface between the military and the state em community relates to northcom’s most recent plans. by 2011, the united states military hopes to activate and train an beverly a. cigler 87 estimated 20,000 service members for specialized domestic operations, under the direction of northcom. one unit became operational on october 1, 2008, with two others expected to be equipped and assigned by 2011. already, there are about 80 national guard and reserve units, with a total of 6,000 troops, in support of local and state officials nationwide. all of these and the northcom units are to be trained to respond to a domestic, chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, or high-yield explosive attack (cbrne). during katrina there was substantial confusion regarding its role, including a slow response. northcom’s units are intended to assist in responding to terrorist attacks or disasters stemming from natural hazards. the units have unique training in logistics and medicine and consist of medical personnel, chemical decontamination experts, logistics, and engineering personnel. groups concerned with guarding civil liberties, and libertarians, are uneasy about how closely the military will be involved with law enforcement issues falling under a state’s jurisdiction, possibly undermining the 130-year federal law that restricts the military’s role in domestic law enforcement, the posse comitatus act. some claim that the new homeland emphasis may strain the military. the obama administration will have to sort out a clearer mission for northcom during catastrophic events and the role of the national guard as a support unit to civil authorities. funding for the changes is still unclear. the posse comitatus act, as well as numerous powers and authorities of the states and national government, will likely be revisited in the near term to forge the role of the military in disaster response and recovery. state policymakers must take a proactive role in this debate. underlying the role of the military in supplementing the states during a disaster is that the threshold for military action is unsettled. the magnitude of a threat, the vulnerability to communities and to the nation, and/or the consequence of the disaster in terms of lives and property lost or national security should be of the highest concern in shaping the em system. as discussed here, many of the key issues among and between governments in terms of the threshold of severity – size, scope, nature and consequences of a disaster event – that should define if and when the national government should have greater authority – or the military are unsettled. this is an area ripe for state interest and action. 58 electoral vote allocation and pennsylvania: how and why we should embrace the status quo heather frederick slippery rock university terrance kible slippery rock university the pennsylvania general assembly has introduced bills to reform the allocation of electoral votes in presidential elections. these reforms include changing from a winner-take-all (unit) system of allocating electoral votes to inclusion in the national popular vote interstate compact and adopting the congressional district method of allocating electoral votes. this paper argues that while there are substantial problems with the current method by which pennsylvania (and most other states) allocate its electoral votes, the potential problems associated with reform proposals would not improve the fairness of the current system, the efficacy of citizens’ votes, nor the importance of the state of pennsylvania in presidential elections. arguments for making the presidential election more democratic by reforming the electoral college system are abundant in both the academic literature and the popular press, although empirical studies on the subject are rather dated. short of amending the united states constitution, the path to changing the way americans select their president lies within the state legislatures, who are given the power to determine the way electors are chosen. while discussions of altering the electoral college process tend to be limited to the time periods directly before and after the presidential election (grofman and feld 2005: 1), “the incentives to change the institution tend to fade fast after an election, as those who won become reluctant to give up 59 heather frederick and terrance kible what they now come to regard as a winning formula” (grofman and feld 2005: 13). the arguments to change the way americans elect their president tend to fall into several categories, including amending the constitution to adopt a direct election and changing the way states allocate electoral votes. within a larger discussion of attempts to reform the electoral college, this paper will attempt to refute the reform proposals introduced into the pennsylvania general assembly to change the method by which our state allocates its electoral votes. the framers of the constitution, after much debate, ultimately settled upon an indirect election of the executive. whether the reasons for this decision were due to their mistrust of the citizenry to directly elect the president or a concession made to assuage the southern states as a side deal to the three-fifths compromise (thomas et al. 2012: 3), their design resulted in a system with which most americans are confused and few support. according to article ii, section 1, of the united states constitution, “each state shall appoint, in such manner as the legislature thereof may direct, a number of electors.” at the constitutional convention, the delegates proposed several methods of selecting electors: “by state legislatures, by governors, and popular election. convention delegates, probably motivated by the desire to secure ratification, left it to the states” (thomas et al. 2012: 3). the states not only have the power to determine how electors are selected, they have power over administering elections, including determining voter eligibility (muller 2012: 1239). three basic methods of elector selection were used in the first presidential election: “state legislature, popular vote, and a hybrid of these two methods” (adkinson and elliott 1997: 78). although states remain free to decide how to choose their electors, after experimenting with different processes, all states now use the popular election to determine their electors (johnson 2012: 9-10; the philadelphia inquirer 2008; haddock 2004; adkison and elliott 1997: 78). while the framers of the constitution assumed that electors would vote independently, the use of popular elections to determine the choice of electors and the winner-take-all method of allocating the electors “evolved as state political machines flexed their muscle” (usa today 2004). the delegates at the constitutional convention mandated that the candidate who achieved the most electoral votes would become president and the candidate receiving the second most electoral votes would become vice president. this system remained unchanged until a sharply divided election in 1800 between aaron burr and thomas jefferson forced congress to make a change. on june 18, 1804, the states ratified the 12th amendment to the constitution, which created the separate election of the president and vice president by the electoral college. the electoral college has remained unchanged at its core since the ratification of the 12th amendment.1 60 electoral vote allocation and pennsylvania despite the stability of the electoral college as an institution for over 200 years, criticisms of the method by which americans select their president abound. in fact, muller argues that the country is closer to abolishing the electoral college “than at any time in nearly fifty years and on pace for an overhaul as early as the next presidential election” (muller 2012: 1238). gallup polls measuring popular support for the electoral college have revealed that americans would prefer the electoral college to be abolished (johnson 2012: 34; sampson 2008). the rationales for reforming the electoral college predominantly stem from an issue of fairness. millions of citizens are disenfranchised every time they cast their ballot for president due to the current system (duquette and schultz 2011: 18). there is an inherent disparity in the electoral college that causes votes in some states to count more than votes in other states. because representation in the senate is vastly disproportionate and representation in the house of representatives is unbalanced as well, the number of electoral votes awarded to each state does not reflect the differences in population among the states (patel 2012: 7). for example, california has 53 times the population of wyoming, but only 18 times more of the vote in the electoral college (patel 2012: 7). small states, due to their constitutionally guaranteed one member of the house of representatives and two senators, have as much as three times the vote share in the electoral college as they would if electoral votes were distributed purely on population (johnson 2012: 33; dahl 2003). “montana has a population of approximately 940,000 people and receives three electoral votes while california’s population is near forty times montana’s and receives 55 electoral votes, or only 18 times as many votes (sampson 2008; levinson 2006)” (johnson 2012: 34). the disparities in apportionment of electoral votes in the electoral college create a dilution of citizens’ votes in every state other than the least populated states. “the dilution of voters potentially disenfranchises americans and it violates the democratic tenets on which this nation was founded” (johnson 2012: 33). however, the malapportionment of electoral votes is not the only way in which votes in some states are made to count for more at the state level in presidential elections. the electoral college wastes millions of votes (edwards 2004). in reynolds v sims (1964), chief justice earl warren argued, “to the extent that a citizen’s right to vote is debased, he is that much less a citizen” (edwards 2004: 53). under the institution of the electoral college, citizens who vote for the losing presidential candidate in their state have wasted their vote because it does not count at the national level. because the outcome of which presidential candidate’s party will win most states is virtually predetermined, citizens in states that are considered reliably blue or red states are ignored as if their vote for president does not matter (johnson 2012: 18). therefore, the issues of concern to safe states 61 heather frederick and terrance kible are ignored throughout the election. “new yorkers [who represent a very reliable blue state] are playing almost no role in picking the next leader of the free world. no inspiring rallies. no pandering to our local concerns. precious few diner visits or door-to-door campaigning” (hammond 2008). typically, presidential candidates tend to ignore around 76% of the states (richie and levien 2013: 360) and instead focus their time, energy, and campaign dollars on the few states that are up for grabs. table 1 shows changes in the number of competitive states in presidential elections from 1960 to 2012 and their electoral votes (richie and levien 2013: 363). table 1 competitive states in presidential elections and their electoral votes, 19602012 year number of swing states total electoral votes in swing states 1960 23 319 1964 17 204 1968 19 273 1972 22 235 1976 24 345 1980 15 221 1984 21 260 1988 21 272 1992 22 207 1996 13 206 2000 16 167 2004 13 159 2008 9 116 2012 11 140 the winner-take-all method of allocating electoral votes also causes republican votes in reliably blue states as well as democratic votes in reliably red states to not count at all. the citizens in safe states who vote contrary to the majority of the state’s citizens have no representation of their vote at all. in the 2000 presidential election, 4.5 million californians (45% of the electorate in the state) voted for george w. bush (haddock 2004); however, none of their votes were reflected by the allocation of all the states’ electoral votes for al gore. the three most populous states in the country, new york, california, and texas, receive virtually no attention from presidential candidates who assume that the winner in that state is a 62 electoral vote allocation and pennsylvania foregone conclusion. “so white house hopefuls of both parties spend way too much time worrying about corn farmers and anti-castro cuban refugees and nowhere near enough focusing on concerns such as mass transit and protecting major cities from terrorist attacks” (hammond 2008). in barack obama’s first presidential campaign, he solicited millions of dollars from citizens in california that was used to woo voters in nevada, iowa, colorado, ohio, new hampshire, florida, pennsylvania, virginia, and north carolina. campaigns focusing only on battleground states do not address national problems; rather, the campaigns ignore issues of concern to the majority of americans (johnson 2012: 21-22). voters in pennsylvania, ohio, and florida have a much larger role in deciding who will be elected president than voters in safe states. in 2004, voters in swing states determined the winner of the presidential election, and their state populations consisted of only 27% of the total nation’s population (johnson 2012: 20). the few swing states in presidential electoral politics decide the winner of the campaign. for the swing states, this is a huge advantage. presidential candidates not only spend more money to attract potential voters, thereby contributing to the states’ economies, but they also spend more time campaigning in these states. in the last six months of the 2008 campaign, ohio and pennsylvania benefitted from over 40 visits from the presidential candidates (johnson 2012: 69). depending upon the closeness of the election in the state and the election year, one citizen’s vote may count up to a hundred or a thousand times more than a citizen’s vote in another state (duquette and schultz 2011: 5; the philadelphia inquirer 2008). this is due to the winner-take-all method of allocating electoral votes. the winner-take-all allocation of states’ electoral college votes… leads to distortions every time a presidential election is held. these distortions undermine the public’s faith in democracy. a case can be made that they may run afoul of the constitutional principle of “one-person, one-vote”. when a vote for president in one state carries 215 times the impact on the final electoral college tally of a vote for president in another state…the principle of “one-person, one-vote” is undermined. what all this suggests is that voters in some states, because of the winner-take-all method of allocating electoral votes, have significantly more influence in an election than do those in other states (duquette and schultz 2011: 18). this criticism of the electoral college is valid. because the weights of some citizens’ votes count more during a presidential election than the weights of other citizens’ votes, it is possible that the interests and opinions of a majority of citizens are discounted (johnson 2012: 17-18). 63 heather frederick and terrance kible critics of the electoral college also argue that the institution decreases political participation (johnson 2012: 21) and “results in stagnation in state elections” (johnson 2012: 23). there is an estimated 6% lower voter turnout in reliably red and blue states than in swing states due to the fact that citizens in “safe states” correctly perceive that their presidential vote is not important (johnson 2012: 23). some proponents of reforming the electoral college have focused on plans to change the winner-take-all allocation of electoral votes. they argue that the winner-take-all system, in which the presidential candidate who receives a plurality of a state’s popular vote is awarded all of the state’s electoral votes, leads to bias and the possibility of electing as president the loser of the popular vote (adkinson and elliott 1997: 79; longley and dana 1992: 123). although many authors argue that the electoral college itself is biased, undemocratic, and can lead to the election of the loser of the plurality vote (adkinson and elliot 1997: 79), most fail to cite the winner-take-all system as complicit in these problems. eliminating the electoral college would be cumbersome at best due to the need to amend the constitution, but the constitution does not require that states allocate their electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis. the winner-take-all system developed in the early nineteenth century as a way for the two-party system to create incentives for a state’s dominant party…to maximize the impact of their state’s voters in determining the presidential outcome. as more states adopted a winner-take-all allocation rule, the remaining states generally followed suit out of self-defense, lest internal divisions reduce the state’s overall impact on outcomes (grofman and feld 2005: 13). states essentially were compelled to adopt the winner-take-all system in order to maintain influence in presidential elections.2 states are not required by the u.s. constitution to base the allocation of their electoral votes on a plurality of the state’s popular vote. in bush v gore (2000), the supreme court ruled that “the individual citizen has no federal constitutional right to vote for the electors for the president of the united states unless and until [his/her state] chooses a statewide election as the means” of choosing electors. hypothetically, a state “could simply choose not to have a november general presidential election at all and select presidential electors by some means other than a general popular election” (amar 2007). however, the court also ruled that once a state chose the popular election as the method of allocating their electoral votes, “the right for voters to participate in that election is constitutionally ‘fundamental’ and cannot be denied or abridged except for compelling reasons” (amar 2007). 64 electoral vote allocation and pennsylvania in the twentieth century, the focus of presidential election criticism has become less about reforming the electoral college and more about its abolition and subsequent replacement with a new method by which to elect the president. thus far, the most popular alternative method for the electoral college has been the direct election. this method, at its foundation, is the idea that the president be chosen by a plurality of voters from across the nation, regardless of state. furthermore, various alternative electoral systems like runoff and ranked-choice voting have been proposed. since the idea of the direct election gained popularity, 24 different legislatures have passed resolutions that call for their state to remove itself from the electoral college and embrace a direct election. although these states have made some progress toward the creation of a direct election, they remain well short of their goal because they have not achieved nearly enough support to make the necessary constitutional change for the direct election to replace the electoral college. the process of amending the constitution is enumerated in article v. the first such major reform proposal came in 1950 with the lodgegossett amendment, which called for a heavy modification of the electoral college that would have replaced it with a proportional electoral vote. under this plan, named for its creators, senator henry cabot lodge (r–ma) and representative edward gossett (r–tx), the electors of the state would have remained in place, and rather than awarding all of the electoral votes to only the winner, the electoral votes would be allocated proportionally to the popular vote of that state. this amendment also would have required that the ticket with the most electoral votes would have to receive at least a 40% majority of all the votes. the amendment stated that if no ticket reached the necessary 40% threshold, a collaborative effort by the senate and house would decide the winner from the two most successful tickets. this amendment passed through the senate of the 81st congress but died in the house. a lingering concern that ultimately doomed this amendment was best stated by senator robert a. taft (r–oh), “[t]here is no doubt that the republican party would fare worse under this amendment than under the present system, other things being equal. this is because the republicans would receive a small proportion of the electoral vote in the southern states than the democrats would receive in the northern states. we would have been somewhat worse off in every election” (taft and wunderlin 2006: 50). this amendment was revisited again in 1955 and received support from the senate judiciary committee, but died in the senate under the opposition of senator john f. kennedy (d–ma). in 1956, senator hubert humphrey (d-mn) proposed a new, unique constitutional amendment to the 84th congress. his plan was not to eliminate the concept of electoral votes, but to drastically alter the way they were distributed. of the 531 total electoral votes at the time, two would 65 heather frederick and terrance kible be given to the candidate who won the popular vote in each state, and the remaining 435 would be distributed proportionally to the candidates in the nationwide popular vote. this proposal passed the house of representatives but did not survive its consideration in the senate. another attempt to reform the electoral college arose following the presidential election of 1968. the third-party campaign of governor george wallace was successful enough to win 46 electoral votes, which fostered the concern that political parties may be willing to trade electoral votes for political concessions. in order to avoid this potential problem, representative emanuel celler (d-ny) proposed a constitutional amendment to abolish the electoral college and replace it with a true direct popular election. the only contingency that representative celler inserted was that the plurality winner would have to achieve at least 40% of the vote. if that percentage was not achieved by any candidate, a runoff election of the top two vote recipients would take place until the 40% minimum was achieved. this amendment passed through the house 338–70 and received public support from president richard nixon. the celler amendment, however, ran into a massive roadblock as it was introduced into the senate judiciary committee, chaired by james eastland (d–ms) and including members like strom thurmond (d–sc). after a bitter round of judiciary committee hearings, which included threats by thurmond to filibuster the proposal, the celler amendment was voted out of committee 11–6 and was sent to the floor for a vote. opposition to the amendment, led by sam ervin (d– nc), thurmond, and eastland, claimed that the amendment would harm states’ rights, disadvantage the smaller states, undo the stability of the twoparty system, and ultimately encourage splinter parties, fraud, and intrusive national voting requirements. after long and bitter debates on the floor, two calls to invoke cloture failed, and the celler amendment died in the senate (keyssar 2009). an ally of the celler amendment, senator birch bayh (d–in) introduced a similar proposal to eliminate the electoral college altogether and replace it with a direct national vote. inspired by the close election of 1976 between governor jimmy carter and president gerald ford, bayh proposed his amendment in the senate to much the same criticism that the amendment had received previously. a close vote in the senate of 51–48 ultimately doomed the bayh reincarnation to failure, which deterred the house from even considering the issue. another attempt to eliminate the electoral college and to institute a direct election of the president was proposed in the house of representatives in 1989. the constitutional amendment received 338 positive votes and 80 negative votes (dahl 2003). despite the amendment’s vast support in the lower chamber of congress, it ultimately failed in the senate due to a filibuster, despite the attempts of supporting senators , who rallied an 66 electoral vote allocation and pennsylvania insufficient 54 cloture votes (johnson 2012: 38; dahl 2003). consequently, the amendment’s demise in the senate led to its end. after this series of attempted amendments, there have been at least 38 different proposals to amend the constitution concerning the electoral college. each one has called for the elimination of the electoral college and its immediate replacement with a direct nationwide election. in 2009, there were three similarly worded proposals from members of congress to abolish the electoral college and implement the direct popular election of the president, including senator bill nelson (d–fl), representative jesse jackson, jr. (d–il) and representative gene green (d–tx). in defense of his proposal, senator nelson stated, “it’s time for congress to really give americans the power of one-person, one-vote, instead of the political machinery selecting candidates and electing our president” (o’brien 2009). the numerous attempts of senator nelson and others to present constitutional amendments in congress since the bayh proposal have failed to make it past committee. the reason these amendments to the constitution keep dying in committee remains unknown, so little discussion is provided for them after they are introduced. one theory for the lack of consideration of these amendments is that lawmakers who represent larger states believe that eliminating the electoral college would forfeit their state’s significance in the presidential race. another theory asserts that a direct election would cause rural areas to become irrelevant. the most traditional means to amend the constitution enumerated under article v is the passage of an amendment through two-thirds majority of both houses of congress. if congress were to pass an amendment, it would then be subject to ratification by three-fourths of the state legislatures. this method of proposing an amendment in one of the houses has become a reoccurring practice in the last half of the twentieth century. in the last 60 years, there have been several proposals either to drastically reform the electoral college or eliminate it completely, replacing it with a more democratic form of election. however, representatives of large states believe that they benefit from the winner-take-all system of allocating electoral votes, and representatives of small states believe they benefit from the two-seat bonus (grofman and feld 2005: 13). members of congress, who would be initially involved in any attempts to change our system of selecting the president, are for the most part unwilling to risk undermining the power of their state under the current system. the advantage that small states receive in the electoral college due to the malapportionment in the house and especially in the senate precludes any chance of reforming the electoral college through constitutional amendment. because the amendment process requires a two thirds vote in both houses of congress, only 34 senators are necessary to prevent a 67 heather frederick and terrance kible proposed amendment from moving on to the states for ratification. “using the 2000 census data, the senators representing only 7.28% of the nation’s population can block an amendment” (johnson 2012: 38). even if both houses of congress could manage to muster the two thirds majority to fulfill the first stage in the amendment process, it is actually more unlikely that the second stage of the amendment process could be completed—ratification by three fourths of the states. “again using 2000 census data, the legislatures from the thirteen smallest states can block an amendment from passing despite the fact that their legislatures represent only a minute 3.87% of the nation’s population” (johnson 2012: 38). therefore, prospects of abolishing or reforming the electoral college through constitutional amendment are virtually nonexistent. proponents of reform have had to resort to other methods of attempting to change the way the president of the united states is selected. however, scholars, pundits, and politicians disagree about which states would be disadvantaged by the elimination of the electoral college. over 70% of americans support adopting a nationwide, popular election of the president, avoiding the dominant focus “on only a few ‘battleground’ states while the interests of the rest of the nation are ignored” (dean 2007). regardless of its popularity with the american public, the political ramifications for the states losing any advantage they have due to the system in place now makes eliminating the electoral college completely doubtful at best (hasen 2007). although the people are not granted the power to vote for the president under the constitution, american citizens widely believe the president represents every person equally; therefore, it is logical to believe that every american voter should have their presidential vote count equally (amar 2006). this is one of the rationales for the national popular vote compact. because proposing and/or ratifying a constitutional amendment faces so many obstacles at the federal level, john koza and barry fadem founded national popular vote in 2006 (johnson 2012: 68; sampson 2008), “an interstate compact in which the compacting states agree to award their electoral voters to the winner of the national popular vote, effectively converting the electoral college into a direct election for president” (muller 2012: 1238). this reform proposal would not require amending the u.s. constitution because states would form a compact stating that they agree to allocate all of their electoral votes to the presidential candidate with the highest number of votes nationwide (amar 2006). the agreement, officially called “the national popular vote act,” would formally go into effect once enough states comprising a majority of the electoral college adopt the proposal. the ultimate result of this compact would allow the presidential candidate with the highest percentage of the popular vote nationally to be awarded all of the electoral votes from the compacting states. 68 electoral vote allocation and pennsylvania proponents of the interstate compact reform idea argue that when enough states enter into the compact to comprise a majority of electoral votes, the unrepresentativeness of state citizens’ votes will be eliminated (johnson 2012: 78), presidential candidates would be forced to compete for every vote in every state equally (haddock 2004), “the influence of small states and other sparsely populated areas” will be diminished (patel 2012: 9), and reliably red and blue states would not be ignored. because each citizen’s vote would count equally, “state boundaries” would “not skew the power of the voter. this allows minority voters in each of the states to aggregate their votes with one another, potentially tipping the election in the favor of their candidate” (johnson 2012: 61). currently, eight states—maryland, hawaii, illinois, new jersey, washington, massachusetts, vermont, new york, rhode island, and california—and washington, d.c. have successfully passed the national popular vote act (national popular vote 2014). together, these states only account for 165 total electoral votes, which places them 105 votes short of compact implementation. the progress of this reform proposal has been steady. since its origin in 2006, the movement has amassed 61% of the electoral votes needed to go into effect. additionally, the bill has passed both houses in co; another ten states have passed the bill through one house (ct, de, me, mi, nc, ar, nm, nv, ok, and or); nine more states have passed the bill through one committee (wv, ky, al, la, ms, mt, mn, ia, and ak); 11 states have conducted committee hearings regarding the bill (nh, pa, va, wi, mo, ks, ne, sd, nd, ut, and az); and the remaining nine states have introduced the national popular vote bill (oh, in, fl, ga, sc, tn, tx, wy, and id) (national popular vote 2014). however, there are fundamental political issues that arise with this reform idea. some argue that the proposal “would essentially require all 50 states to sign on board to become effective. if any state were to continue to adhere to the current winner-take-all approach, then other states could not reasonably be expected to adopt a self-harming proportional approach. and this kind of prisoner’s dilemma often proves an intractable obstacle to action” (amar 2006). the prisoner’s dilemma is not, however, applicable to the national popular vote act. this electoral college reform negates the possibility of such a dilemma by allowing “as few as 11 states” with an electoral college majority to override the existing electoral system regardless of how the remaining states act (amar 2006). if these 11 states command a majority of the votes in the electoral college—as california (55), texas (38), florida (29), new york (29), illinois (20), pennsylvania (20), ohio (18), georgia (16), michigan (16), north carolina (15), and new jersey (14) would (u.s. national archives and records administration 2010)—and pledge to award their votes based on the national popular vote, the electoral votes of nonparticipating states will do nothing to sway the outcome. 69 heather frederick and terrance kible another criticism of the national popular vote act is that interstate compacts were intended to settle disputes among regional state actors, not as a substitute for failure to enact national policy (johnson 2012: 67). however, robert w. bennett, akhill reed amar, and vikram david amar have argued that interstate compacts could be used to bypass the need for federal legislation (pincus 2009: 520). in fact, the compact clause of the constitution (art. i, sec. 10), on which the national popular vote act is predicated, requires congressional approval if the issue under compact empowers state governments over the federal government (patel 2012: 3; johnson 2012: 41-42, 83) there continue to be strong arguments on either side of the issue of whether the national popular vote initiative would require congressional approval. patel (2012) argues the compact is likely to affect the power of states in terms of their influence on a presidential election. this factor seems unlikely to trigger a political-power limitation, however, as it relates to the power among the states, not to the federal government’s power over any given state. as such, the compact does not seem to “encroach upon or interfere with the just supremacy of the united states,” and thus would fall outside the scope of the political power limitation (patel 2012: 9). because passing a constitutional amendment to reform the electoral college is unfeasible, the interstate compact may be the best and most effective manner of reforming the presidential selection system in the united states. “an interstate compact cannot be blocked by forty senators like an amendment and it can provide the same change. instead, it unites states in an agreement to exercise their previously granted powers in a different manner” (johnson 2012: 50). additionally, many argue that the compact does not require congressional approval because it does not bestow any powers to states that did not exist prior to the compact. the constitution guarantees states the power to decide how electors are chosen and thus allocated, therefore federal power is in no way diminished by states entering into this agreement. yet another idea for reforming the presidential election system would be for every state to adopt the method by which maine and nebraska currently allocate their electoral votes—the district method. this method allows a presidential candidate to receive one electoral vote for winning a plurality of the popular vote in each congressional district in the state, with a two-vote bonus for the candidate who wins a plurality of the popular vote statewide. the district method of allocating electoral votes certainly allows each voter’s selection of presidential candidate to count more than the winner70 electoral vote allocation and pennsylvania take-all system, addressing “the problem of the tyranny of the majority on a statewide basis, allowing individuals in districts more power in the election process. breaking down the election into many district-based segments allows each individual more authority in determining the results of the election” (johnson 2012: 23-24). california proposed such a reform in the presidential election reform act, a state referendum, before the 2008 election (thomas, et al. 2012: 2). however, mathematicians have shown that the adoption of this plan nationwide would disadvantage the democratic party and favor republican presidential candidates. indeed, if every state followed the maine/nebraska approach in 2000, bush would have beaten gore in the electoral college by a margin of 289 to 249, which [is] much larger than the margin by which bush actually won. this result seems counterintuitive, give that gore—not bush—won the nationwide popular vote. while the move toward more equitable distribution within each state would seem analytically a step in the direction of a true nationwide popular election, the counting of results on a state-by-state basis creates numerical anomalies (amar 2004). other critics of the district method argue that presidential candidates would campaign only in highly competitive congressional districts, thereby ignoring other voters and failing to solve the same problem most have with the winner-take-all system of allocating electoral votes (thomas et al. 2012: 3). in fact, in a quantitative study, researchers found “[t]he direct popular vote and the current electoral college are both substantially fairer compared to those alternatives where states would have divided their electoral votes by congressional district” (thomas et al. 2012: 1). another proposal to reform our presidential election system suggests that states should agree to allocate their electoral votes proportionally to the popular vote in the state. for example, if candidate a received 60% of the popular vote in a state, she would then receive 60% of that state’s electoral votes. critics of this plan argue that this plan would encourage third-party candidates to enter the presidential contest, knowing that even 5% of a state’s popular vote would result in a proportional 5% of the state’s electoral votes. this proposal could also result in no candidate winning a majority of electoral votes and throwing the presidential election into the house, allowing minor parties to demand concessions from the major parties (usa today 2004). this idea was proposed as a direct democracy initiative in colorado in 2004. the initiative was ultimately defeated, but critics argued that colorado stepping out and adopting the plan before other states also agreed to do so would decrease the state’s influence in choosing the president and amount to “unwise unilateral disarmament” (amar). perhaps 71 heather frederick and terrance kible a larger issue with this initiative is its likely demise in the judicial system. because the u.s. constitution permits only the state legislatures to decide how electors are appointed, a plan initiated and adopted by the voters of a state, although very democratic, would most likely be ruled unconstitutional by the united states supreme court. initiatives of such nature have not only been propagated within the federal legislature and through isolated state proposals, but pennsylvania has also attempted to reform their method of electoral vote allocation internally through reformations of proportional representation, congressional districtbased allocation, and the national popular vote act. representative mark cohen (d-philadelphia) and representative thomas creighton (r-lancaster) sponsored house bill 1270, the pennsylvania version of the national popular vote interstate compact along with 33 other members of the pennsylvania house of representatives as co-sponsors (pennsylvania general assembly). on 12 march 2012, the pennsylvania house majority policy committee held a public hearing on creighton’s “legislation to change the way pennsylvania casts its electoral college votes....by aligning them with the national popular vote” (pennsylvania general assembly). since this hearing and referral to committee, no other action has been taken (national popular vote 2014). the national popular vote interstate compact was introduced into pennsylvania’s house of representatives as the agreement among the states to elect the president by national popular vote and referred to committee (h. 1270, 2011). as proposed by representative creighton, the reason for this bill would be to elect the president through an indirect reflection of the national popular vote. the chief election official of each affiliated state “shall designate the presidential slate with the largest national popular vote total as the ‘national popular vote winner’” (h. 1270, 2011). a state’s allocation of electoral votes to the national popular vote winner must be announced as an official statement to the other state’s officials in the compact within 24 hours of the presidential electors casting their ballots (h. 1270, 2011). questions have been raised about the viability of the national popular vote interstate compact in the occurrence of a tie; however, in the event of a tie, the bill contains specific legislation that proscribes the reversion of each state to the presently functioning form of electoral vote allocation (the winner-take-all method) (h. 1270, 2011). the withdrawal from the compact requires a state to repeal the bill at least six months prior to the end of a president’s term, and the entire bill shall be deemed invalid if the electoral college is abolished (h. 1270, 2011). in order for this bill to be implemented, the accumulation of the states within said compact must possess a majority of the electoral votes (h. 1270, 2011). prior to this bill, pennsylvania attempted to reform their method of allocation multiple times. these attempts have included both a multitude of 72 electoral vote allocation and pennsylvania initiatives to implement the national popular vote interstate compact and an effort to allocate pennsylvania’s electoral votes by means of congressional districts (pennsylvania general assembly). the former of these efforts for reform was proposed as house bill 1028 (05 april 2007), house bill 841 (10 march 2009), and senate bill 1116 (17 june 2011) (pennsylvania general assembly). representative cohen, one of two sponsors of the most current reform proposal (house bill 1270), coincidentally sponsored both house bill 1028 and 841 (pennsylvania general assembly). like house bill 1270, no other bill proposed in either house has made it to the floor for a vote (pennsylvania general assembly). although these bills have lacked any genuine sense of viability, the recent movement to adopt the district method of allocating electoral votes in the pennsylvania state legislature has received much attention from both advocates and adversaries. then-senate majority leader, senator dominic pileggi (r-delaware) “proposed that pennsylvania’s electoral votes be allocated by congressional district” on 12 september 2011 (pennsylvania general assembly). for senator pileggi, the goal of such a reformation is to not only redefine the method through which pennsylvania allocates its electoral votes, but also to proscribe said votes in a manner that more closely reflects the state’s popular vote (greenblatt 2013). similar to senator pileggi’s original plan, an amendment to p.l. 1333, no. 320 has been introduced by representative robert godshall (h. 94, 2013). this plan would not only delegate the responsibility of allocating pennsylvania’s electoral votes to each congressional district, but also grant an additional two electoral votes to the presidential nominee who received the greatest number of votes statewide (h. 94, 2013). senator pileggi rescinded his support of this reform proposal in order to appease criticism from his constituents and peers (greenblatt 2013). objections to senator pileggi’s proposal often embodied the sentiments of corrupt gerrymandering practices (greenblatt 2013). if this bill were to be ratified and enacted, the executive branch would be subjected to the same practices that have historically disenfranchised voters through means of packing and cracking. more recently, senator pileggi introduced senate bill 538 to the pennsylvania state legislature, which has been referred to the senate government committee (lynch 2013). senate bill 538 would allocate pennsylvania’s electoral votes proportionally, rather than the current winnertake-all system (lynch 2013). as proposed, this amendment to p.l. 1333, no. 320 would modify the current system by means of the following criteria (skelley 2013). the nominee for the office of president of the united states who wins the plurality of the statewide popular vote shall be awarded two presidential electors (s. 538, 2013). the remaining electors shall be divided between presidential nominees proportionally to the statewide popular vote, 73 heather frederick and terrance kible with the electoral vote total rounded up to the nearest whole number (s. 538, 2013; skelley 2013). if the total number of electoral votes required to properly allocate them proportionally exceeds the amount available, the candidate who received the smallest percentage of the popular vote shall be denied one electoral vote; this process continues for each candidate in chronological succession (excluding the recipient of the plurality) until the required amount of electoral votes is achieved (s. 538, 2013). this bill, along with the others introduced, has failed to reach floor of either chamber. consequently, within each committee, the bills are motionless and progress is stationary. such proposals do not seem to be gaining much attention beyond the minimal press coverage expected from a revolutionary bill. the presidential electoral reforms proposed in pennsylvania and explained above may in fact improve the ways by which americans select their president. however, pennsylvania legislators and political activists who have the best interest of the state in mind should abandon all attempts to reform the method by which our state allocates electoral votes and realize that the current winner-take-all system benefits our state. because pennsylvania is considered to be a swing state3, we benefit more from the status quo. because the proposal in the pennsylvania general assembly to adopt the district method for allocating electoral votes was ultimately brief and unsuccessful regardless of the press attention received by the proposal, we begin with the argument that this reform method would disadvantage our state. pennsylvania should reject the district method of allocating electoral votes because the state would “lose attention and clout if fewer of its electoral votes were in play” (thomas et al. 2012: 2). under the winner-takeall system, pennsylvania’s electoral votes are a huge prize for presidential candidates. changing to a district method like maine and nebraska would merely result in presidential candidates ignoring pennsylvania voters and the issues of interest to pennsylvanians. also, “there was the possibility that the change of focus to the congressional district level for president would similarly affect other elections down the ticket, putting once-safe state-level seats into play again” (thomas et al. 2012: 2). yet again, the district method does not solve the problem of not counting citizens’ votes at the national level. if pennsylvania under the winner-take-all system provides all of its electoral votes to the democratic presidential candidate, the votes of republicans in the state have not been counted at the national level. transforming our method of allocating votes to a district plan merely reduces the same problem to a congressional district level rather than a statewide level. for example, if the third congressional district of pennsylvania awarded a plurality of its votes to the republican presidential candidate, thereby providing that candidate with one electoral vote, the democratic voters in that district would not have the benefit of 74 electoral vote allocation and pennsylvania having their votes counted at the national or state level. the same problem of uncounted votes exists, just on a smaller platform. perhaps the greatest danger of instituting the district method of allocating electoral votes is the potential for more serious gerrymandering problems within the state (thomas et al. 2012: 12). indeed, since minority districts are more likely to be packed districts (and packed tightly), the district method may be unconstitutional too because it disenfranchises minority voters and violates the voting rights act. a far more likely scenario in pennsylvania is that we would seriously consider entering the national popular vote act. this reform, like the district method, would be detrimental to the importance of pennsylvania in presidential politics. the compact would cause pennsylvania as a swing state to lose its importance because the overall national vote total will matter, and proponents of the compact believe that this will lead politicians to more equally value votes across all fifty states. on the other hand, a national popular vote system could lead presidential candidates to focus on states or cities that are highly populated because those areas would have the most possible votes (patel 2012: 6). in essence, not only would pennsylvania lose its importance as a battleground state during presidential elections, millions of rural pennsylvanians would also be ignored so that presidential candidates could focus on the heavily populated areas of the state and the country. it is, however, worth noting that the current electoral system is often seen as neglectful of rural voters and states. under the national popular vote act, the importance shifts from winning states to winning individual votes. so while rural voters and rural states might be ignored in the current state-centered electoral model because of their sparse numbers and limited effect on state-by-state outcomes, the national popular vote act would actually benefit these rural voters and states by allowing their aggregate national power to be felt. the next criticism of the compact reform for pennsylvania is that the guarantee clause of the constitution provides that “[t]he united states shall guarantee to every state in this union a republican form of government.” kristen feeley argues that the guarantee clause prohibits the compact because the compact undermines process federalism in presidential elections. ms. feeley reasons that, by mandating that member states allot their electoral votes for the national popular vote winner, the compact not only silences the voice of the nonmember states, but also prohibits member states from making their own decisions (patel 2012: 8). 75 heather frederick and terrance kible this silencing of nonmember states is a serious concern. there is potential under the national popular vote act for only 11 states to fundamentally restructure the selection process of the president of the united states regardless of the desires of the citizens in the other 39 states (johnson 2012: 67; ross 2004). it is worth noting, however, that the interests of voters in nonmember states would not be ignored. under the national popular vote act, these voters in nonmember states would still be courted for their votes. the constitution empowers states to determine the time and method of elections; the compact would necessitate the federal government enacting election laws to ensure uniformity throughout the compacting states. this would include “the manner in which elections are orchestrated, ballots are counted, and recounts are instituted” (johnson 2012: 78). a problem such as the recount during the 2000 presidential election in florida, under the national popular vote act, would require a recount of every vote in the country. the implementation of the interstate compact reform would also require the federal government to enact legislation dealing with voter eligibility. this reform is proposed due to the improbability of passing a constitutional amendment; therefore, the states would continue to have the power to decide which of their people are eligible to vote. if the winner of the presidency were predicated on the winner of the national popular vote, states could attempt to increase their influence in the election by broadening their definition of who is eligible to vote—“including definitions based on age, felon status, alien status, and mental incapacity” (muller 2012: 1241). if states attempted to “cheat the system” by changing their voter eligibility laws, then a uniform federal law would be necessary to determine who is permitted to vote. however, creating a federal standard to determine voter eligibility would present its own problems by disenfranchising voters in certain states. if, for example, the federal government decided to disenfranchise a set of ex-felons, it would need to define felony by referring to the different crimes in the fifty states, and it would disenfranchise individuals in one jurisdiction for conduct that would not disenfranchise them in another. a federal standard would almost certainly disenfranchise individuals currently given the right to vote, as the varying eligibility standards would find a political compromise in the center, enfranchising voters in some states while disenfranchising them in others (muller 2012: 1242). therefore, it is clear that enacting the national popular vote act would create serious problems in terms of voter eligibility, constitutional powers, and our federal system of government. the final reason why neither pennsylvania nor any state should entertain adoption of the national popular vote act is that the reform ultimately 76 electoral vote allocation and pennsylvania subverts the united states constitution. changing the electoral college through an interstate compact rather than through the formal amendment process of the constitution undermines our entire system of government. the founders created a difficult but not impossible method for amending the constitution: a proposal by two-thirds of both houses of congress and ratification in three-fourths of the states. states adopting this reform are attempting to change through an interstate compact what they are unable to change through the supermajority required of a constitutional amendment. certainly, this was not what the framers intended when including the compact clause in the constitution. there are inherent issues with the wholesale elimination of the electoral college. opponents of reform argue that americans would essentially be “trading an institution whose pluses and minuses we know for one whose evils are yet to be determined” (grofman and feld 2005: 12). it would be difficult to determine exactly what issues would arise from reform. we could be replacing the electoral college with a system even more difficult to understand, predict, or deem as fair. despite many attempts and plans to reform the way america chooses its president, none of the proposals has been adopted thus far. the fact remains, however, that most americans feel that the current electoral college system presents problems of unfairness and inequality. critics continue to argue that the electoral college violates the constitutional principle of “oneperson, one-vote” instilled by the supreme court’s interpretation of the 14th amendment’s equal protection clause (muller 2012: 1241). this objection, however, cannot be sustained due to the fact that the united states constitution does not provide american citizens with the right to vote for president. rather, the constitution empowers state legislatures to determine how electors are chosen. the inherent problems with the current method by which most states allocate their electoral votes are undeniable. however, the winner-take-all method confines any necessary recounts to one state or one county within a state and creates clear winners and losers by exaggerating the margin of victory. the electoral college “promotes stability in the election of the president by providing a clear and official winner for america. the electoral college increases the spread in the election results signaling a clear winner” (johnson 2012: 30). the benefits of the current winner-take-all system of allocating votes in the electoral college for the country and especially for pennsylvania far outweigh the potential benefits and virtually certain disadvantages of adopting electoral college reform through proportional methods, district methods, or an interstate compact. in order for pennsylvania to maintain its importance in presidential electoral politics as well as its support for and endorsement of our federal system of government and the constitution, 77 heather frederick and terrance kible pennsylvania citizens, activists, and legislators are encouraged to think about the ramifications of reform when the current system, while not perfect, is clearly most advantageous. notes 1 the constitutional language governing the electoral college has not changed since the 12th amendment was ratified in 1804. however, states continued to experiment with different methods of awarding electoral votes, with the winner-take-all system achieving universal use by the 1830s (richie and levien 2013:). maine and nebraska switched to the congressional district method in 1972 and 1996, respectively (the center for voting and democracy 2009). 2 nebraska and maine are the only states that allocate their electoral votes by congressional district, rewarding the two “bonus” electoral votes to the overall winner of the state. 3 pennsylvania has been considered a battleground, swing, or “purple” state for many years. although the state was considered a weak democratic state in the 2012 presidential election, we maintain that our republican controlled state legislature as well as the slight margin of victory for presidential candidates in pennsylvania through several election cycles ensures our continuation as a swing state. references adkison, danny m., and christopher elliott. 1997. “the electoral college: a misunderstood institution.” ps: political science and politics: 30: 77–80. amar, akhil reed, and vikram david amar. 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volume15.doc vii in the commonwealth gerard j. fitzpatrick editor once again, this issue of commonwealth confirms the old adage that “good things come to those who wait.” the number of manuscripts submitted for review over the past two years continued to be low, while the rejection rate remained high—a testament to the demanding standards of our anonymous reviewers. thanks to them, we can present a diverse group of five scholarly articles. two of them involve congress, one concerns the judiciary, one examines the electoral process, and one explores public policy. moreover, three of the five articles focus on pennsylvania, as do all seven of our reviewed books. in our lead article, david r. white traces the ill-fated political career of john inscho mitchell, the progressive republican who represented pennsylvania in both the u.s. house of representatives and the u.s. senate during the gilded age. a reluctant “compromise candidate” who won his senate seat under the most inauspicious of circumstances, mitchell served his state honorably but unhappily, for he was an honest man living in an era of rampant political corruption. white shows that mitchell was much better suited temperamentally for the judicial service he later performed on several state courts in pennsylvania. one of the courts on which mitchell served, the pennsylvania court of common pleas, is the focus of heather frederick’s article, which explains why women are underrepresented as judges on this level of the state bench. finding that neither incumbency advantage nor various methods of judicial selection fully accounts for the gender disparity between male and female judges, she emphasizes instead the adverse impact on women of basic sexism in the form of stereotypes and tokenism. on the bright side, frederick notes that over the course of the past 15 years women have been more likely than men to be appointed to the courts of common pleas. blyden potts continues the theme of injustice in pennsylvania’s governmental institutions, this time focusing on the discriminatory treatment accorded by the state’s election law to independent and third party candidates trying to get on the ballot. drawing upon his direct involvement in the failed u.s. senate bid of green party candidate carl romanelli in 2006, potts argues that state democrats—aided by an array of state and federal courts—used the letter of the law to sabotage romanelli’s signature petition, thereby undercutting the law’s spirit and along with it the rights of the candidate and the interests of the voters. viii the theme of representation also pervades robin lauermann’s article, which explores how individuals belonging to various demographic groups perceive and evaluate the political behavior of their particular representative in the u.s. house. she finds not only that various social and political identities shape the ways in which different groups of constituents understand and assess the actions of their representatives, but also that politically savvy house members recognize the importance of the demographic composition of their districts and cultivate personal, policy, and electoral relationships with their constituents accordingly. shifting the focus from politics to public policy, arthur m. holst examines the leadership role that local governments are increasingly playing with regard to the adoption of “greening” policies in the realms of energy use and environmental protection. with the advantage of proximity to environmental problems as well as to the people who cause them and are affected by them, municipalities across the nation have enacted in recent years an array of policies, programs, and incentives that show how the public and private sectors can work together effectively and why economic growth and ecological health need not be in conflict. in closing, i wish to acknowledge the work and dedication of several people. first, michael r. king, executive director of pennsylvania’s legislative office for research liaison (lorl), has widened our distribution network and reduced our operating costs. second, michael e. cassidy, executive director of the office of the house democratic caucus, has proved that his gift for managing governmental affairs is transferable to managing a journal as well. third, the skills of copy editor barbara c. stone have turned commonwealth into a work of art, visually. finally, my debt to associate editors thomas j. baldino and donald g. tannenbaum can be simply put: tom + don = commonwealth. 81 collective bargaining and municipal distress: state problem, state solution erik l. soliván philadelphia housing authority the limited authority that municipalities have over the costs of police and fire personnel is a primary cause of fiscal distress in local governments in pennsylvania. this article argues that the state legislature must amend act 111 to give local governments and uniformed-employee unions equal standing under the law. the currently inequitable standing between a police or firefighters’ union and a local government during negotiation and arbitration is the flaw in act 111. the root of this flaw lies in the historical relationship between the state legislature and local governments and the parallel history that led to the passage of act 111 in 1968. the defect in act 111 is a prime cause of the substantial growth in the cost of local governments’ municipal police pensions. the state legislature recognized the legal deficiency of act 111 by enacting the municipalities financial recovery act, known as act 47, which is the state program for municipal bankruptcy. to curtail the pending municipal fiscal crisis, the state legislature must amend act 111. the amendments proposed in this article would correct the defect in act 111 by granting equal standing under the law to local governments and police and firefighters’ unions. introduction a primary cause of fiscal distress in local governments in pennsylvania is the limited authority that municipalities have over the costs of police and fire personnel. the collective bargaining law for police and firefighters, known as act 111, grants employee unions authority to negotiate for almost every term and condition of employment; but the law does not provide local 82 collective bargaining and municipal distress governments with any explicit managerial rights. if the parties cannot reach a negotiated agreement, the law empowers an arbitral chair to set the terms and conditions for employment without a mandatory consideration of a municipality’s financial position. this article argues that act 111 must be amended to curtail the municipal financial crisis in pennsylvania. it begins with an overview of the relationship between the state legislature and local governments and the parallel history that led to the passage of act 111 in 1968. after analyzing the unequal standing between public-employee unions and local governments under the law, the article argues that act 111 is a primary cause of the expansive growth of municipal police-pension liabilities when the law is combined with the municipal police pension law (pennsylvania general assembly 1955). the state legislature recognized the flaw in act 111 when it passed the municipalities financial recovery act, known as act 47. the article ends with a set of proposed amendments to correct act 111 by granting local governments and police and firefighters’ unions equal standing under the law during negotiation and arbitration. the proposed amendments are: (1) require an arbitration panel to assess a municipality’s financial position before and during the term of a collective bargaining agreement; (2) require that an arbitral award be confined to the limits of a municipality’s multiyear financial plan, if available; and (3) require the arbitral chair to write an opinion that specifically articulates how a municipality will pay for all the provisions in an award. these amendments would equalize the standing of the parties under the law during negotiation and arbitration, thereby ensuring fair compensation to police and firefighters at a reasonable cost to local governments and, ultimately, taxpayers. state supremacy and limited local governance pennsylvania’s political culture is rooted in a strong belief in the philosophy that government closest to the people is best. this belief is reflected in the existence of over 2,500 local governments across the state. nonetheless, the state legislature has a long tradition of limiting—either directly or indirectly—the powers of political subdivisions. act 111 and its functional predecessor, the act of june 30, 1947, are byproducts of the evolving relationship between the state legislature and municipalities. this relationship explains why act 111 vests an arbitrator with power over municipal fiscal affairs. this section summarizes how that relationship developed and how it functions today. in 1874, local governments in pennsylvania were shielded under article 3 § 20 of the pennsylvania constitution from any act of the legislature empowering a third party with authority over municipal affairs. this protection, adopted during the constitutional convention of 1873, mandated 83 erik l. soliván that “the general assembly shall not delegate to any special commission, private corporation or association, any power to make, supervise or interfere with any municipal improvement, money, property or effects, whether held in trust or otherwise, or to levy taxes or perform any municipal function whatever” (pennsylvania constitution 1873, art. 3 § 20). in addition, the constitution set a limit on the amount of debt that a municipality may incur: “no debt shall be contracted or liability incurred by any municipal commission, except in pursuance of an appropriation previously made therefore by the municipal government” (pennsylvania constitution 1873, art. 15, § 2). this clause prevented local governments from entering into contracts until appropriations to pay for them were secured, and it prohibited any increase of a municipality’s debt until the local government identified the means to pay for the obligation. articles 3 and 15 of the pennsylvania constitution seemed to provide an adequate structure for municipal financial regulation, while shielding local governments from legislative acts intruding into local fiscal affairs. unfortunately, pennsylvania’s supreme court did not adopt this interpretation. in 1870, the state legislature established the pennsylvania commission for the erection of public buildings. four years later, the pennsylvania supreme court granted a writ of mandamus ordering the city of philadelphia to fund the development of a building requested by the commission. the city refused to do so. in 1878, the commission sought a writ of mandamus to compel the general council of philadelphia to requisition the necessary funds to construct the building. the writ sought funding for the building from either philadelphia’s general fund or a special tax that the city would be ordered to levy. despite the perceived constitutional protections for local government from such actions under article 3§ 20 of the state constitution, the state supreme court overturned the trial court’s decision and granted the writ. the supreme court reviewed the legislative history of article 3 § 20 and held that “section 20, article 3, voids no law relative to any commission created prior to 1874” (perkins v. slack 1878, 279). the court reasoned that the legislature would have inserted specific language to nullify all such commissions that existed before enactment of the constitutional amendment had it intended to strip those commissions of their powers. the court ordered philadelphia to provide the necessary funds to finance a building for the benefit of the legislature’s commission (perkins v. slack 1878, 279). the commission for the erection of public buildings is an early example of the willingness of the legislature and the pennsylvania supreme court to grant power to third parties over municipal fiscal affairs. as local governments grew bigger and wealthier, they began to challenge the authority of the state government over their fiscal affairs. at the turn of the nineteenth century, the u.s. supreme court affirmed the state legislature’s authority over local governments. the pennsylvania supreme 84 collective bargaining and municipal distress court held in in re pittsburgh (1907, 238) that “municipal corporations are agents of the state, invested with certain subordinate governmental functions for reasons of convenience and public policy. they are created, governed, and the extent of their powers determined by the legislature and subject to change, repeal, or total abolition at its will.” in this case a resident taxpayer challenged a statute enabling the city of pittsburgh to consolidate with the city of allegheny to form the current city of pittsburgh. on appeal, the u.s. supreme court affirmed the state supreme court decision by holding that municipalities have no rights under federal law because they are creatures of the state legislature. the u.s. supreme court ruled that “municipal corporations are political subdivisions of the state, created as convenient agencies for exercising such of the governmental powers of the state as may be entrusted to them. . . . the number, nature and duration of the powers conferred upon these corporations and the territory over which they shall be exercised rests in the absolute discretion of the state” (hunter v. pittsburgh 1907, 178). these federal and state court decisions clearly held that local governments had no immunity from the state legislature, and that the legislature may do as it pleases with local governments within the constraints of the state constitution (as interpreted by the courts). the pennsylvania supreme court has reviewed the authority of local government in light of two questions: does a local government have authority to take action, and if so, is there a limitation on that authority (martinez and libonati 2000, 70)? municipalities draw their authority from statutes, and the breadth of that authority is decided under the dillon rule of statutory interpretation (martinez and libonati 2000). under the dillon rule, pennsylvania’s statutes are interpreted against the authority of the municipality. municipalities possess and can exercise the following powers: those granted in express words, those necessarily or fairly implied in or incident to the powers expressly granted, and those essential—not simply convenient, but indispensable—to the accomplishment of the declared objects and purposes of the corporation. any fair, reasonable, substantial doubt concerning the existence of a municipal power is resolved by the courts against a municipality and the power is denied (martinez and libonati 2000). although pennsylvania has many diverse local governments, the state legislature established early a clear intent to limit the scope of their authority over their affairs and the judiciary has upheld that intent. the historical path to the passage of act 111 in 1968 was a direct byproduct of the state legislature’s control over local governments’ fiscal affairs. an unintended consequence of that control, however, is the inability of local governments to control the growth of their financial obligations to police and firefighter unions. 85 erik l. soliván the history of act 111 the pennsylvania supreme court’s decisions in perkins (1878) and hunter (1907) limited the protections afforded to local governments from the actions of the state legislature under article 3 § 20 of the state constitution. yet the provision survived the constitutional convention of 1923. the conflict between the state legislature and local governments’ authority reemerged in 1947 and was resolved in a dispute between a firefighters’ union and a city council. this section discusses the events leading up to the passage of act 111 in 1968. on june 30, 1947, pennsylvania’s legislature passed a law prohibiting labor strikes by police and firefighters (pennsylvania general assembly 1947). the act of 1947 also established a process to resolve disputes between a local government and its police and firefighters. under the law, the parties had 30 days to negotiate. if no agreement was reached, a hearing would be held before a panel composed of one member from each party and a third member selected by the other two and designated as the panel’s chair. if the two appointees could not agree within 15 days on who should chair the panel, the county court of common pleas would select the chair. the panel’s decision would be final and binding on both the union and the municipality. the chair of the panel had authority to decide how a municipality would compensate police and firefighters and to bind the municipality and the union to that decision. the act of 1947 governed without challenge until 1961 when the erie city council refused to accept a panel’s decision for the resolution of a dispute with the erie firefighters association (erie firefighters local no. 293 v. gardner 1962, 328). the panel’s decision called for the establishment of a pension fund for survivor benefits that would have required the local government to enact a tax on residents to pay for the pension. the city council voted against implementation of the panel’s award. the law did not prohibit court appeals, so the firefighters association filed suit. the county court of common pleas held that the state legislature’s delegation of authority over municipal fiscal affairs to the panel’s chair was unconstitutional under article 3 § 20 of the state constitution (erie firefighters local no. 293 v. gardner 1962, 333). the state supreme court affirmed the decision of the trial court and adopted its opinion. the court identified the primary issue in erie as whether it had “the duty and power to command the council of the city of erie to pass ordinances consonant with the findings of the negotiation panel” (erie firefighters local no. 293 v. gardner 1962, 333). in addition, the court considered whether “the power to fix municipal salaries and to create a pension plan is non-delegable under our [state] constitution” (erie firefighters local no. 293 v. gardner 1962, 86 collective bargaining and municipal distress 335). the court held that article 3 § 20 fixed the power to decide municipal salaries and to create pensions for public employees as “pure municipal functions.” it also found the act of 1947 unconstitutional and unenforceable in the case at hand. the legislature’s delegation of authority over municipal fiscal affairs to a third party was deemed to be a violation of the protections afforded to local governments under article 3 § 20 of the state constitution. the state supreme court’s holding in erie was overturned by a constitutional amendment that protected the legislature’s empowerment of arbitral chairs over local fiscal affairs. the constitutional convention of 1967–68 provided a timely opportunity for the legislature to restate its prerogative to allow third-party arbitral chairs to settle disputes between a local government and public employees. in may 1967 the legislature adopted an amendment to article 3 § 20 of the state constitution (duquesne university, pennsylvania constitutional conventions) exempting arbitration panels from the constitutional limitation upheld by the state supreme court (pennsylvania constitution 1967, art. 3 § 20). known as the “ripper clause” (porter 1969), the amendment empowered the general assembly to enact laws regarding “the findings of panels or commissions, selected and acting in accordance with law . . . for collective bargaining between policemen and firemen and their public employers” (pennsylvania constitution 1967, art. 3 § 20). in addition, the legislature was empowered to grant a third party authority to make decisions that bind “upon all parties” and that “shall constitute a mandate to the head of the political subdivision which is the employer . . . and the lawmaking body of such political subdivision” (pennsylvania constitution 1967, art. 3 § 20). the constitutional amendment paved the way for the swift enactment in 1968 of act 111, which the judiciary would decisively uphold. judicial review on june 24, 1968, the state legislature passed an act authorizing collective bargaining between police and firefighters and their public employers and providing for arbitration to settle disputes (pennsylvania general assembly 1968). the statutory authority given to an arbitral chair has received strong deference from the state supreme court. this section discusses how the court acquired jurisdiction to hear an appeal of an act 111 award, the limited scope of judicial review, and the court’s rejection of an attempt by the state legislature to expand the jurisdiction of the court over arbitral awards. the first lawsuit over the powers of an arbitral chair and the limited authority granted to local governments to protect their fiscal affairs under act 111 reached the pennsylvania supreme court in 1969. an arbitral award mandated that the city of washington “at its sole expense, [provide] hospitalization coverage for the members of the family of each member 87 erik l. soliván of the police department of the city of washington, equal to the coverage now provided . . . for the member himself ” (washington v. police dep’t of washington 1969, 439). act 111 prohibits the appeal of an award to the courts, so the judiciary struggled to find a nexus for review (pennsylvania general assembly 1968, 43 p.s. § 217.7a). acknowledging the authority of the legislature to preclude appeals, the court ruled that the state constitutional right of appeal did not apply to this law because “an arbitration panel is neither a court nor an administrative agency” (washington v. police dep’t of washington 1969, 440). the court declared that the city’s due process rights under the federal and state constitutions were not harmed by the prohibition against judicial appeal. the pennsylvania supreme court upheld a trial court’s decision that act 111 prevented the judiciary from acquiring subject matter jurisdiction to hear the local government’s appeal of the arbitrator’s decision. it also ruled that the city did not have a right to appeal, for “neither constitution [state or federal] requires that there be a right of appeal from an arbitration award” (washington v. police dep’t of washington 1969, 440). the court nonetheless decided to grant the appeal of the award because of pennsylvania procedural rule 68.5, which is the mechanism for protecting constitutional rights under article 2 § 31. it set a narrow standard of review—that it still uses today—tied to these factors: (1) jurisdiction, (2) the regularity of the proceedings before the agency, (3) questions of excess in the exercise of powers, and (4) constitutional questions (washington v. police dep’t of washington 1969, 441). the court began its analysis of the award granted in washington by acknowledging that as “creature[s] of the legislature” local governments have no sovereignty and that the language of act 111 contained “no explicit reference to the scope of the arbitrator’s power” (washington v. police dep’t of washington 1969, 441). the court then turned to article 2 § 31 of the state constitution to acquire jurisdiction. it ruled that arbitrators are bound by the clause “acting in accordance with the law” and that courts may ensure that arbitrators “in conducting their hearings and making an award, may not violate the requirements of due process and must adhere to the mandates of the enabling legislation” (washington v. police dep’t of washington 1969, 442). the city of washington had argued that the award exceeded the power granted to the arbitrator, so the pennsylvania supreme court also set the test for defining an excessive exercise of arbitral power. the excessive power test asked whether the local government was mandated to “carry out an illegal act” (washington v. police dep’t of washington 1969, 442). an illegal act was defined by combining several considerations, including the general legal standing of municipalities, the language of act 111, and article 2 § 31 of the pennsylvania constitution. in a conflicting final decision, the supreme court held that it lacked subject-matter jurisdiction to hear this dispute, but it excluded the hospitalization coverage for the family of 88 collective bargaining and municipal distress retirees as a violation of the third class city code. the court noted that the constitutional provision applied in this case, article 2 §31, did not delineate the statutory authority granted to an arbitrator under act 111 (washington v. police dep’t of washington 1969, 442). although the state supreme court established a scope of review for act 111 awards, it declined to expand its jurisdiction over arbitral awards. in 1980, the legislature amended the uniform arbitration act (uaa) (pennsylvania general assembly 1980, 43 pa. c.s. § 7301). the new law applied to all arbitration awards and expanded the judicial scope of review of the awards. under the uaa, a court may “modify or correct the award where the award is contrary to law and is such that had it been a verdict of a jury the court would have entered a different judgment or a judgment notwithstanding the verdict” (pennsylvania general assembly 1980). the language of the statute would allow a court to review the fact-finding of the arbitral chair and to decide whether another award would be more suitable under the facts. in 1985, the pennsylvania supreme court rejected the broader analysis as applied to act 111 awards (township of moon v. police officers of the township of moon 1985). in analyzing whether the uaa applied to its scope of review of act 111 awards, the court acknowledged that act 111 has no provisions for judicial review, that the legislature did not add a scope of review to act 111 when it amended the act in 1974, and that a provision of the uaa stated a legislative intent not to change an existing scope of review. the court reasoned that the legislature was aware of washington (1969) and its progeny when it enacted the uaa, and it interpreted the lack of explicit language to mean that the legislature was satisfied with judicial precedent. in addition, the court argued that the rules of statutory interpretation state that when courts attempt to ascertain the intention of the general assembly, the presumption is that “language used in a statute [and] in subsequent statutes on the same subject matter intends the same construction to be placed upon such language” (pennsylvania general assembly 1972). adhering to the legislative intent, the pennsylvania supreme court held that arbitration decisions under act 111 are to be given considerable deference and limited review. the judiciary sustained the broad authority of the arbitral chair to set the terms and conditions of employment under act 111, which gives employee unions the power to negotiate almost every aspect of the terms and conditions of employment. the local governments’ limited control over personnel expenses for police and fire unions under act 111 spurred a municipal pension and fiscal crisis. the act 111 process since 1947, police and fire units have been prohibited by law from labor strikes (pennsylvania general assembly 1947). similar to the law of june 30, 89 erik l. soliván 1947, act 111 requires an employee union and a municipality to negotiate a labor contract. if they cannot reach agreement, a panel of arbitrators is convened with the arbitral chair empowered to make a final decision binding on the parties. the broad authority and judicial deference given to the arbitral chair encumbers the negotiations between the parties because act 111 does not require the arbitral chair to consider for the terms and conditions of employment the financial position of a local government and its ability to pay. this section reviews the provisions of act 111 and highlights the structural inequities between the negotiating parties and the statutory flaws of the arbitration process that spurred the municipal pension crisis. under the law, a local government and an employee union must begin negotiations six months before the expiration of the current contract (pennsylvania general assembly 1968). act 111 permits the union to negotiate with the local government over the union’s “compensation, hours, working conditions, retirement, pensions and other benefits” (pennsylvania general assembly 1968). the law does not does not define these terms and conditions of employment. courts have mandated negotiation over any topic that is “rationally related” to those issues (fop rose of sharon lodge no. 3 v. pennsylvania labor rels. bd. 1999, 1281). moreover, act 111 does not explicitly set any terms or conditions of employment as the managerial prerogative of the local government (guthrie v. wilkinsburg 1985). courts have deemed some terms and conditions of employment to be the managerial prerogative of local government, but those judicial stipulations have not prompted the state legislature to amend the provisions of act 111. therefore, local governments have limited ability to control the costs of police and fire personnel. act 111 allows the employee unions to set the terms and conditions of their employment. the law imposes a duty on parties to bargain in good faith during negotiations, with the determination of whether that duty has been fulfilled being dependent on whether “reasonable efforts” have been made to do so (pennsylvania general assembly 1968, 43 p.s. § 217.2). neither act 111 nor the judiciary has provided a clear definition of “reasonable efforts” at good-faith bargaining between a local government and an employee union.1 it would be reasonable under act 111 and current case law for a union to state its position on “compensation, hours, working conditions, retirement, pensions and other benefits” and, if its demands are not met, to declare an impasse and proceed to arbitration. the only prohibition against either party declaring the negotiations to be at an impasse is the mandatory 30-day negotiation period (pennsylvania general assembly 1968, 43 p.s. § 217.4). to date, there is no case law based on a plaintiff ’s claim that the other party failed to negotiate in good faith. act 111 also places on local governments the financial burden of arbitration by requiring that “the compensation of the two other arbitrators, 90 collective bargaining and municipal distress as well as all stenographic and other expenses incurred by the arbitration panel in connection with the arbitration proceedings, shall be paid by the political subdivision” (pennsylvania general assembly 1968, 43 p.s. § 217). the employee union is responsible only for the costs of its arbitrator, and because this cost is borne by the members of the fraternal order of police or the firefighters’ union, it is not a financial impediment to declaring an impasse to the negotiations and proceeding to arbitration. once an impasse or stalemate is declared, the parties select their arbitrators and the arbitrators choose the arbitral chair. under act 111, the arbitration panel is composed of one member from each party and those two select a third to act as chair of the panel (pennsylvania general assembly 1968, 43 p.s. § 217.4b). if the two members cannot agree on who should chair the panel, the pennsylvania labor relations board (plrb) provides a list of three persons from which the two arbitrators would pick a chair (pennsylvania general assembly 1968, 43 p.s. § 217.4b). each party has the option of striking a name, in which case the remaining person becomes the arbitral chair. the list provided by the plrb is primarily composed of people who have previously served as arbitral chairs. act 111 does not structure how the pool of eligible arbitral chairs would be developed, nor does it explicitly empower a state agency to determine such criteria by regulation. the law does not require the arbitral chair to have any competencies, knowledge, or training, nor does it set the terms or conditions of employment for the arbitral chair. it requires only that an arbitral chair be a “resident of pennsylvania” (pennsylvania general assembly 1968, 43 p.s. § 217.4b). an arbitral chair may thus make a career of dispute resolution, but act 111 provides no minimal qualifications for that practice. as chair of the arbitration panel, the third arbitrator is the ultimate decision maker for resolving a dispute between a local government and an employee union. like a judge’s ruling, an arbitrator’s decision is enforceable by the state. unlike a judicial proceeding, however, act 111 prohibits the parties from appealing an arbitral award to a higher court (pennsylvania general assembly 1968, 43 p.s. § 217.7a). therefore, under provisions of act 111, the decision of the arbitral chair on what wages and pensions a local government will pay its police and firefighters is final, even though the arbitral chair is not required by law to consider a municipality’s financial position. although arbitral chairs are not required by law to consider a local government’s financial strength, a chair does not want municipalities to litigate the panel’s decision or have it scrutinized by the courts. many local governments will argue that they have limited resources to pay for high wages and fringe benefits. an award that provides the majority of benefits through long-term costs such as pensions, as opposed to immediate costs 91 erik l. soliván such as salaries and vacation time, is more attractive to an elected body. furthermore, political reality makes it easier for a mayor, township, or borough council to balance the annual budget and show public support for police and firefighters than to consider the multiyear effects of the award on the municipality’s finances. accordingly, arbitration awards that extend pension benefits by taking advantage of the permissions granted by the pension laws, such as act 600 of 1955, are more frequent than grants of high salaries, vacation days, or other immediate costs. nonetheless, an arbitral chair may decide to grant wage increases, minimum manning provisions, and fringe benefits despite a local government’s lack of funds because courts have readily deferred to such decisions absent the “excess in the exercise of powers” granted by act 111 (washington v. police dep’t of washington 1969, 442). police and firefighters’ unions throughout pennsylvania have a consistent set of representatives and common issues before the plrb’s set of arbitral chairs. the pennsylvania lodge of the fraternal order of police represents the 1,053 local police departments across the state (pennsylvania fraternal order of police 2010). the international association of firefighters is the statewide organization for the 25 paid fire departments throughout pennsylvania (intr’l association of fire fighters 2010). by contrast, local governments throughout pennsylvania do not have a consistent set of representatives before the select group of arbitral chairs. the 1,053 local governments that engage in collective bargaining under act 111 have election cycles that may bring a new solicitor or contract for legal services. therefore, a professional arbitrator on the plrb’s list interacts with a consistent group of representatives for police and firefighters’ unions, whereas the representation of local governments varies, as do the issues driven by each municipality’s financial position. additionally, the fragmentation of local governments throughout the state creates regions of similarly situated municipalities. a decision in one municipality may set the basis for a decision in neighboring municipalities, for the common union representatives argue before a consistent set of arbitral chairs for similar wages and benefits throughout a region. in 2008, richard friedberg of the pennsylvania league of cities and municipalities (plcm) testified before the state senate’s urban affairs committee that “arbitrators making the decision are not required to take into account what a municipality can afford,” and they may “award items that were not a part of the initial negotiation sessions,” with benefits given in one municipality having “a domino effect in the neighboring communities” (friedberg 2008). friedberg argued that “unequivocally, act 111 has had a tremendous impact on the pension benefits police and fire unions received and costs incurred by municipal employers” (friedberg 2008). 92 collective bargaining and municipal distress the pension crisis act 111 arbitral awards are a significant factor in the development of municipal pension distress. when the procedural law of act 111 is combined with the substantive law of pensions, specifically the municipal police pension law, known as act 600 of 1955, the optional pension benefits become mandatory costs for a municipality. this combination has increased the pension liabilities for many municipalities without increasing—or even considering—the local governments’ ability to pay for the costs. this section analyzes how act 600, when combined with act 111, sparked an uncontrollable growth in pension liabilities. cities and boroughs were required to provide pensions to police officers as early as the 1930s, and this requirement is reflected in the act of june 1947 discussed above. early municipal codes set the minimum pension benefits for police and paid firefighters, limited expansion of pension benefits, and established funding requirements. the municipal police pension law of 1955, known colloquially as act 600 (pennsylvania general assembly 1955), changed the pension landscape by setting the criteria for providing police with pension benefits. the law had few mandates but many optional benefits, and it did not require funding adjustments to maintain actuarial soundness. act 600 governs police pensions in all cities, boroughs, and townships employing three or more full-time police officers. there are more than 3,160 municipal-employee pension plans in pennsylvania, of which police and firefighter pensions comprise one-third (pennsylvania employee retirement commission 2008). every city in the commonwealth has a pension program for police, and most cities fund a firefighters’ pension as well. notwithstanding the large urban plans, more than 98% of the pension plans in pennsylvania can be characterized as small (pennsylvania employees retirement commission 2008). borough police pensions make up over half the total number of municipal police pensions in the state (485 out of 965). the vast majority of borough and township pension plans for police have fewer than eight members. about two-thirds of municipal pension plans have ten or fewer active members and 29% of them have three or fewer active members (pennsylvania employee retirement commission 2010). act 600 contained only a few mandatory provisions, most notably that pension recipients must complete 25 years of service in the same municipality and that the monthly pension benefit must be at least 50% of the average monthly salary (pennsylvania general assembly 1955). in addition to the mandates, the law contained a series of optional provisions to expand the pension benefits offered by a municipality. the optional provisions under act 600 far outnumber the mandates. they include 93 erik l. soliván reducing the age of retirement to 50, which could make municipalities liable for an average of 25 years of pension payments; reducing the social security offset to zero, which could raise the local government’s monthly payments per retiree; reducing the service time for vesting in the fund to just 12 years, which could significantly reduce the total contributions per employee while expanding the period of liability for the municipality; reducing employee contributions to the fund to zero, thereby leaving the local government with the full responsibility for the costs of the fund; and granting early retirement after 20 years of service, which could significantly extend the duration of monthly payments for the municipality. the law also authorized cost-ofliving adjustments (colas) based on 75% of the average salary, a level that could be exceeded if the fund is actuarially sound in a year when the decision to enact an increase is made.2 although some options require the plan to be actuarially sound before benefits may be expanded, actuarial soundness rests on uncertain economic assumptions (peterson 1953). for example, enacting an arbitral award with a cost-of-living adjustment in 2007 when the stock market was on the upswing could have destabilized the fund in 2008 after the stock market crashed. many municipalities throughout pennsylvania are currently struggling with this predicament because act 600 does not require local governments to have the funds to pay for the growth of pension liability. consequently, pension benefits for employees can be expanded without the constraint of affordability by the municipality. arbitral chairs have used their authority to turn the optional benefits under act 600 into mandates without considering whether local governments can pay for the added benefits. as of 2008, almost 50 years after the state supreme court’s decision in erie firefighters local no. 293 v. gardner (1962), the city of erie had almost $40 million in unfunded pension liabilities for its police and firefighters (pennsylvania employee retirement commission 2010). erie is not alone. the pennsylvania employees retirement commission (perc) reports that statewide there is $2,674,894,695 in unfunded liabilities for municipal police and firefighter pensions. not counting pittsburgh and philadelphia, the total comes to $1,112,412,667 in unfunded pension liabilities for over 400 medium and small municipalities across the state (pennsylvania employee retirement commission 2010). about one-third of pennsylvanians live in a municipality with a distressed pension, and poor stock market performance in 2008 likely increased that number despite the market’s subsequent rebound. estimating the impact of the economic downturn on the pensions of approximately 600 municipalities, perc found that almost 200 of them would see their minimum municipal obligation (mmo)3 at least double, 80 would see their mmo at least triple, and 32 would see their mmo at least quadruple. the minimum municipal obligations for these municipalities would increase by an average of $500,000 94 collective bargaining and municipal distress a year (pennsylvania employee retirement commission 2008). figure 1 below represents 199 municipalities (ranging from boroughs to third class cities) that have $300,000 to over $1 million in unfunded pension liabilities for police and firefighter unions. this group of municipalities collectively owes $513,341,430 to the pension plans for these unions. that total does not include philadelphia and pittsburgh, which collectively owe over $2 billion in unfunded pension liabilities to their police and firefighter unions (pennsylvania employee retirement commission 2010). in response to municipal pension distress, the pennsylvania legislature passed the municipal pension funding standard and recovery act, known as act 44 of 2009. act 44 was an amendment to the original municipal pension plan funding standard and recovery act of 1984, known as act 205 (pennsylvania general assembly 1984 and 2009). act 205 was the first action by the state legislature to provide municipalities experiencing fiscal distress with options and funding to reduce the burden of their employeepension obligations. act 44 is the latest attempt by the state legislature to offer local governments experiencing fiscal distress due to their pension obligations options like extending the amortization of the pension to reduce immediate costs. act 44 also grades pension funds in terms of the level of unfunded liability, and it requires the consolidation of severely distressed pensions into the pennsylvania municipal retirement system. these municipal pension recovery acts demonstrate the legislature’s recognition of the problem of funding municipal employee pensions, a problem due in part to the combination of act 111 and act 600. the legislature enacted the municipal police pension law to empower local governments to provide retirement pensions for police officers. the pension options may have improved the employee recruitment opportunities for municipalities, which in turn may have provided for better service to taxpayers. yet the permissible options under act 600, when combined figure 1 total unfunded liabilities police & fire pensions under act 600 (liability per muni < $300k). $163,476,799 $342,080,815 *not included philadelphia & pittsburgh source: pennsylvania employees retirement commission $69,884,577 40 cities* 77 boroughs 82 townships 95 erik l. soliván with act 111, were turned into overwhelming costs for local governments. although recovery laws for funding municipal pensions have provided a means for addressing severely distressed municipal pensions, the laws do not fix the problem that is causing municipal fiscal and pension distress. local governments still have only limited authority to control police and fire personnel expenses under act 111. municipalities financial recovery act the state legislature recognized the need to limit the financial impact of act 111 awards when it enacted the municipalities financial recovery act in 1987 (pennsylvania general assembly 1987). known colloquially as act 47, the law establishes a state program for financially distressed municipalities that sets dollar limits on an arbitrator’s collective bargaining awards as determined by a municipality’s multiyear financial recovery plan. under the law the department of community and economic development (dced) declares a municipality distressed if it meets a variety of financial conditions, such as expenditures outpacing revenues for more than three years, inability to make minimum municipal obligations for employee pension funds, and operating expenses exceeding revenues in the current fiscal year (pennsylvania general assembly 1987). if any of the requisite conditions are met, dced may declare a local government fiscally distressed. the program requires a municipality to work with a consultant to develop a multiyear fiscal plan that will set the terms for financial recovery under the oversight of the state government (pennsylvania general assembly 1987, 53 p.s. § 11701.221). the program promotes substantive changes to collective bargaining agreements to help local governments return to balanced budgets and avoid future fiscal crises (pennsylvania general assembly 1987, 53 p.s. § 11701.241). the terms for financial recovery thus include limits on the wages and pension benefits of police and firefighters awarded by an arbitral chair under act 111 (pennsylvania general assembly 1987). pennsylvania’s courts have heeded the legislature’s intent to afford distressed local governments fiscal protections under act 111. the first appellate court case concerning the intersection between acts 111 and 47 occurred in 1989 and involved the wilkinsburg borough police officers association (wilkinsburg police officers ass’n v. commonwealth 1989). the police union argued that the limits on bargaining agreements imposed by act 47 violated the state constitution’s requirement that “municipalities engage in collective bargaining” (pennsylvania constitution 1968, art. 3 § 31). the pennsylvania supreme court affirmed the appellate court’s decision that act 47 may amend act 111 because act 111 is a permissible statute, although its provisions are not constitutionally protected (wilkinsburg police officers ass’n v. commonwealth 1993, 137). 96 collective bargaining and municipal distress in 2005, the state’s commonwealth court held that “act 47 allows a coordinator to include in a recovery plan recommendations proposing changes to collective bargaining agreements that could alleviate a municipality’s financial distress. . . . once a plan is adopted, no collective bargaining agreement adopted thereafter may violate, expand or diminish the plan’s provisions” (pittsburgh fire fighters, local no. 1, et al. v. commonwealth of pennsylvania, et al. 2005, 669). the court also ruled that the state legislature had constitutional authority to “limit or contract the rights it has bestowed,” and it held that “plans developed pursuant to act 47 represent such a limitation” (pittsburgh fire fighters, local no. 1, et al. v. commonwealth of pennsylvania, et al. 2005, 671). in october 2011 the pennsylvania supreme court rescinded the limitations imposed by an act 47 recovery plan on an arbitral decision, effectively severing act 111 from act 47 (scranton v. firefighters local union no. 60 of the iaff 2011). the legislature swiftly addressed the technical issues raised by the court by adopting act 133 of 2012. this legislative response did not return a recovery plan’s predominance over collective bargaining for police and firefighters. instead, act 133 granted the recovery plan coordinator the power to set a financial limit on a distressed municipality’s total expenditure on an employee union and on the union’s right of appeal to a court of common pleas under a de novo standard if an arbitral award should exceed the cap on expenses (pennsylvania general assembly 2012). in addition, the cap set by the coordinator must include a list of economic considerations that may be difficult to calculate, a requirement that may limit the constraints imposed by the cap. the municipalities financial recovery act illustrates the pennsylvania legislature’s recognition of the municipal fiscal crisis sparked by act 111. as amended, act 47 requires the arbitral chair to give consideration to a municipality’s fiscal status, as dictated by the multiyear financial plan, equal to the terms and conditions of employment demanded by a police or firefighter union. pennsylvania’s courts have followed the legislative intent of act 47 and confined arbitral awards to the limits set forth in a municipality’s multiyear financial recovery plan because the legislature “forecasted the chaos that would ensue if a municipality collapsed as a result of financial distress” (desanto 1991). recommendations for improving act 111 the limits on act 111 arbitral awards imposed by act 47 show the state legislature’s willingness to require an arbitral chair to weigh equally a municipality’s financial position and an employee union’s terms and conditions of employment before and during the term of a collective bargaining agreement. the state legislature must now provide equal standing 97 erik l. soliván for local governments and uniformed-employee unions under act 111 before a municipality may enter the state bankruptcy program. accordingly, i propose the following amendments to act 111: 1. require an arbitration panel to assess a municipality’s financial position before and during the term of a collective bargaining agreement; 2. require that an arbitral award be confined to the limits of a municipality’s multiyear financial plan, if available; 3. require the arbitral chair to write an opinion that specifically articulates how a municipality would pay for the provisions in an award. under the first proposed amendment, arbitrators ought to begin their analysis by determining whether a local government has a structural deficit. a strong measure of municipal fiscal health is the ratio of the growth in revenue to expenditures over three or more years. retirement pensions, healthcare expenditures, and ill-advised municipal bonds and notes are the traditional causes of structural deficits, for each year they set the fixed costs of a municipality for a long time regardless of the growth or decline in revenues. recent economic stagnation is causing an unremitting decline in tax revenues (mainly from property taxes and the earned income tax) while municipal expenditures for employee wages, retirement pensions, and healthcare costs continue to rise. recurring fluctuations in stock market prices undermine predictions of the minimum municipal obligation that local governments will owe to their employee pensions. moreover, the growth of other post-employment benefits (opeb)—and the lack of funding for those benefits—further strains annual municipal operating budgets. absent a structural deficit, an assessment of a local government’s financial position ought to focus on projected revenues compared with expenditures during the term of the collective bargaining agreement. expenses for police and fire personnel account for more than half the total expenditures of local governments. even though a local government may not currently have a structural deficit, employee wages and the costs of pension benefits ought not to expand beyond what that jurisdiction can reasonably afford in light of its tax base, taxing options, and revenue projections. the arbitrators’ analysis then ought to turn to a municipality’s use of revenue options available under the law, including permissible taxes and fees to pay for the services it is required to provide under the various municipal codes. in addition, the municipalities financial recovery act provides specific criteria that may be the basis of the panel’s assessment, along with various financial ratios that could help determine a local government’s financial position. this proposed amendment recognizes that government accounting, financing, and budgeting are complex processes that use a series of funds 98 collective bargaining and municipal distress to manage revenue, pay expenses, and securitize debt. the diversity of municipalities (in structure, size, and authority) in pennsylvania also demands a practical understanding of local governance that includes taxpayer services, municipal operations, and law. the plrb could work closely with the center for local government at the department of community and economic development to train arbitrators to assess municipal finances. under the second proposed amendment, arbitrators would link their awards to the limits of a municipality’s multiyear financial plan, if available. police and fire protection are two of the fundamental and likely most expensive services that local governments provide. municipalities that take the initiative to plan for these costs alongside other expenditures over a multiyear period have done the hard work of assessing their financial position. the opportunities or limitations posed by a municipality’s projected revenues in relation to its expenses ought to confine the decision of the arbitral chair on the wages and pension benefits of police and firefighters, similar to the process under act 47. under the third proposed amendment, the arbitral chair would write an opinion specifically articulating how a municipality would pay for the provisions in an award. currently, some arbitral chairs provide a written award that lists the chair’s findings and reasons for a decision, even though act 111 does not require such action. a written opinion stating the basis for the arbitral chair’s decision is prudent, given the mandatory analysis of a municipality’s financial position compared with the terms and conditions demanded by an employee union. these three proposed amendments to act 111 would equalize the standing of municipalities and public employee unions during negotiation and arbitration. police and firefighter unions would remain able to set the terms and conditions of employment, but local governments would be able to control their expenditures. as a result, taxpayers would receive quality— yet affordable—public services. conclusion local governments in pennsylvania exist at the will of the state legislature to administer programs and services for local taxpayers. police and fire protection are two of these primary services. the legislature prohibited police and firefighter unions from engaging in labor strikes, and it passed act 111 to settle disputes between unions and the local governments that employ them. act 111 empowered arbitral chairs to set the terms and conditions of employment, but it failed to require chairs to consider the financial impact of their decisions on local governments. although the state legislature has attempted to mitigate the impact of this flaw on municipal pensions and finances, such alleviation does not correct the underlying problem. 99 erik l. soliván amending collective-bargaining laws for public employees is a painstaking process, as evidenced by events in wisconsin, minnesota, and michigan between 2010 and 2012, events that brought the issue of paying for public-employee pensions and wages into our national discourse. in pennsylvania, the pension crisis affecting local governments is slowly being recognized as more newspapers, magazines, news websites, chambers of commerce, and regional and local “good government” organizations tell the story about the current and future municipal fiscal crisis.4 the complexity of the crisis, aggravated by recent political fights over employee unions, has hindered the enactment of aggressive legislation to solve the problem. nonetheless, the amendments to act 111 proposed here are feasible because the state legislature has already shown a willingness to mitigate the impact of the law’s defects. the legislature’s minor improvements are not sufficient, however. it must provide a direct path to permanently alleviating municipal fiscal distress by formally amending act 111. notes 1 such is the case absent a unilateral action by the local government on an issue that is subject to collective bargaining (city of bethlehem v. pennsylvania labor relations bd. 1993) or an outright refusal to bargain (city of coatesville v. com., pennsylvania labor relations bd. 1983). 2 although the law has been amended to limit some of the optional provisions, many of these provisions existed for more than 35 years. 3 the minimum municipal obligation is the state-mandated smallest amount a municipality must contribute to any pension plan established for its employees. the amount is calculated using actuarial science. 4 among the articles that have addressed the pension crisis are: http://readingeagle. com/article.aspx?id=220704, http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/s_685786. html, http://www.delcotimes.com/articles/2010/02/28/news/doc4b89f385eb4f6465512232.txt, http://www.alleghenyconference.org/municipalpension.asp references city of bethlehem v. pennsylvania labor relations bd. 1993. 621 a.2d 1184. city of coatesville v. com., pennsylvania labor relations bd. 1983. 465 a.2d 1073. desanto, f. 1991. coping with fiscal distress in pennsylvania’s local government: a program evaluation of act 47. harrisburg, pa: local government commission of the general assembly of pennsylvania. duquesne university. [no date] pennsylvania constitutional conventions. retrieved from pennsylvania constitution and conventions 1967–1968: http://www.duq.edu/law /paconstitution/conventions/1967–1968.cfm erie firefighters local no. 293 v. gardner. 1962. 178 a.2d 691. fop rose of sharon lodge no. 3 v. pennsylvania labor rels. bd. 1999. 729 a.2d 1278. friedberg, r. 2008. testimony before the senate urban affairs committee. harrisburg, pa. april. guthrie v. wilkinsburg. 1985. 508 pa. 590. 100 collective bargaining and municipal distress hunter v. pittsburgh. 1907. 207 u.s. 161. in re pittsburgh. 1907. 217 pa. 227. intr’l association of fire fighters. 2010. retrieved from www.iaff.org. martinez, john, and michael e. libonati. 2000. state and local government. 6th ed. cincinnati, oh: anderson publishing co. pennsylvania constitution. 1873. pennsylvania constitution. 1967. pennsylvania constitution. 1968. pennsylvania employee retirement commission. 2008. status report for the governor and general assembly. harrisburg, pa. pennsylvania employee retirement commission. 2010. data set on act 600 pensions as of january 1, 2007. retrieved via an open records request. pennsylvania fraternal order of police. 2010. retrieved from www.pafop.org. pennsylvania general assembly. 1947. public employee anti-strike law. pub. law 1183, no. 492. pennsylvania general assembly. 1955. municipal police pension law. 53 p.s. § 767. pennsylvania general assembly. 1968. the police and fire collective bargaining act. 43 p.s. § 217.1. pennsylvania general assembly. 1972. statutory construction act. 1 pa.c.s. 1922 § (4). pennsylvania general assembly. 1980. uniform arbitration act. 43 pa. c.s. § 7301. pennsylvania general assembly. 1984 and 2009. municipal pension plan funding standard and recovery act. 53 p.s. § 895.101. pennsylvania general assembly. 1987. municipalities financial recovery act. 53 p.s. § 11701.201. pennsylvania general assembly. 2012. municipalities financial recovery act. act 133. perkins v. slack. 1878. 86 pa. 270. peterson, ray m. 1953. actuarial soundness in pension plans with insurance companies. american risk and insurance association. pittsburgh fire fighters, local no. 1, et al. v. commonwealth of pennsylvania, et al. 2005. 867 a.2d 666. porter, david. o. 1969. “the ripper clause in state constitutional law: an early urban experiment, part 2.” utah law review 1969: 450–89. scranton v. firefighters local union no. 60 of the iaff. 2011. 20 a.3d 525. township of moon v. police officers of the township of moon. 1985. 498 a.2d 1305. washington v. police dep’t of washington. 1969. 259 a.2d 437. wilkinsburg police officers ass’n v. commonwealth. 1989. 564 a.2d 1015. wilkinsburg police officers ass’n v. commonwealth. 1993. 636 a.2d 134. commonwealth: a journal of political science founded by the pennsylvania political science association (ppsa) in 1987, commonwealth: a journal of political science is a peer-reviewed journal that publishes original research in all subfields of political science along with interdisciplinary articles. from 2004 to 2010, the now defunct legislative office for research liaison (lorl) of the pennsylvania house of representatives jointly published the journal. commonwealth’s editorial staff, editorial review board, and referees maintain the highest standards of peer review and publication. open to a variety of approaches and methodologies, commonwealth seeks manuscripts that are based on theoretical perspectives (empirical or normative) as well as those that employ an historical approach. an important part of the journal’s mission is to encourage research on topics of pennsylvania and regional importance (northeastern and mid-atlantic united states). manuscripts on state and local government, politics, and policy are especially desired. moreover, book reviews are generally limited to essays on recently published works with a pennsylvania or regional focus. in addition to its general issue, commonwealth also solicits manuscripts 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_________________________________________________ city, state, zip ___________________________________________ check enclosed in the sum of $ _________________. special education funding in pennsylvania special education funding in pennsylvania the effects of a policy of neglect william t. hartman the pennsylvania state university the past 10 years have seen substantial changes in special education enrollments and funding in pennsylvania. school district enrollments have been declining slightly, while the number of special education students in charter schools has been increasing. district expenditures for special education have steadily increased, while state subsidies for special education have stagnated for the past six years and the state share of support has declined. this state policy choice has resulted in an increase in districts’ costs of over $500 million to replace the lost state share. along with the charter school enrollment increases have come substantial district tuition payments to charter schools, totaling over $1 billion from 2009–2010 through 2013–2014. over half of these payments, $550 million, are in excess of the charter schools’ reported expenditures for special education, providing charter schools with a disguised subsidy for their general operations. the new special education funding formula from the legislature, while a step in the right direction, has not yet provided enough new money to make any substantial difference for district budgets. the past 10 years have seen substantial changes in special education in pennsylvania. total enrollments in special education have been stable varying only a few thousand students over the time period. however, within the overall special education enrollments, charter schools have grown, commonwealth, volume 18, issue 1 (june 2016). © 2016 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/cjppp.v18i1.97. all rights reserved. special education funding in pennsylvania 71 while enrollments in school districts have declined. the level of enrollments and where they changed has had direct impact on school district special education expenditures in several ways. in school districts, these expenditures have increased steadily in spite of their small enrollment declines due to higher operating costs in their own programs and rapidly growing tuition payments to charter schools for increasing numbers of district students moving to charter schools. these tuition payments to charter schools fell fully on school districts beginning in 2011–2012, when the state stopped their subsidies to school districts to assist in the financial support of charter schools. further, school districts pay approximately twice as much per special education student in charter schools than they do for non–special students, a statewide average of approximately $20,000 per student versus $10,000 for regular education students. this payment structure has created a potential financial incentive for charter schools to recruit special education students and/or to convert some of their existing regular education students to special education through provision of additional services. on the revenue side, state subsidy payments for special education have not been increased since 2009–2010, leaving school districts to support all of the increased expenditures. these events have raised a number of associated issues for fiscal and educational policy makers in the state. some of the issues have been dealt with by deliberate decisions with (or without) an understanding of the intended and unintended consequences. these decisions were primarily the level of state subsidies for special education and funding for charter schools. other issues or events were not necessarily under the policy makers’ control, but had implications for or direct impact on policy makers’ alternatives and choices. these would include the number and types of special education enrollments, expenditures, and changes in federal support for special education. the analysis of special education in pennsylvania examined five main areas: 1. enrollment trends for both school districts and charter schools 2. expenditure trends for both school districts and charter schools 3. funding trends from state, federal, and local school district sources 4. f iscal impacts on school districts of the special education enrollment, expenditure, and revenue trends over the past 10 years 5. impact of explicit and implicit fiscal policies established by state policy makers for special education funding the analysis covered 2003–2004 through 2013–2014, the 10-year period for which the latest data were available. 72 william t. hartman background special education in pennsylvania is supported through three main funding sources: local school districts, state subsidy, and federal funds. both state and federal funding use a categorical approach in which specific funds are appropriated for special education and those funds are required to be used to support special education. in this structure, since state and federal revenues are fixed annually by the state and federal government legislative bodies, school districts are left as the funder of last resort and are responsible for covering all the remaining expenditures. districts must use their local tax revenues, primarily real estate taxes and earned income taxes, to cover their portion of special education expenditures. this approach has left pennsylvania school districts vulnerable to a number of economic, political, and educational factors that impact both the revenues they receive and the expenditures they incur. these factors have changed over the past 10 years and many of them are beyond the districts’ control. the result has been to place a greater and growing fiscal burden on school districts. over this time period, the economic conditions in the country and the state changed drastically. what began as a strong economic situation in the mid-2000s, abruptly deteriorated beginning in 2007 into the great recession and continued to decline through the next several years. these severe economic changes had a direct effect on the level of state tax revenue collected: total tax revenue for the state dropped from $27.9 billion in 2008–2009 to $25.5 in 2009–2010 and did not reach the prerecession level until 2012–2013 (pennsylvania department of revenue). as a result, the amount of funding available for state subsidies, including special education, was substantially curtailed for several years. during this down time for state revenues, in pennsylvania, the federal stimulus funds for education from the american recovery and reinvestment act of 2009 (arra) were used in 2009–2010 and 2010–2011 to supplant state education funding, which prevented a reduction in overall funding to school districts for those years. however, in 2011–2012 when the federal stimulus funds ended, the previously reduced state funding for education was not fully restored, and school districts received approximately $900 million less from state and federal funds than the prior year (pennsylvania department of education, summary of annual financial report data 2011–2012). in 2011–2012, in a sharply changed political climate, the state priorities for education shifted dramatically. the new republican governor and a republican-controlled legislature had as their emphasis to reduce and limit funding for public school districts from state and local sources and sought to use special education funding in pennsylvania 73 charter schools as the main vehicle for school choice and expenditure control. ironically, an important component of this approach was the elimination of the state subsidy to districts for charter school costs, which made the school districts almost completely responsible for charter school expenditures for regular and special education students. this unfunded mandate substantially increased school district budgets and decreased district fiscal stability as the number of special education students in charter schools grew rapidly. from 2008–2009 through 2013–2014 state subsidies for special education have been flat. this represented a major policy decision of state policy makers to not increase state funding for special education and established the trend for the state to reduce its share of support for special education. the lack of state funding increases came in the context of limited state revenues due to the continued impact of the recession on the state economy and simultaneous growing demands on the state purse for other areas of education, particularly mandated pension contributions. from the districts’ perspectives, their net expenditures for special education continued to grow, some of which came from the increasing tuition payments to charter schools coupled with no increase in state funding. in turn, this long-term condition was causing substantial fiscal pressure on district budgets as their local tax revenue growth was limited to inflationary increases by act 1 of 2006.1 mandatory expenditures for pensions and tuition payments for students in charter schools, along with obligatory special education expenditures meant that other, nonspecial educational programs and services had fewer resources and suffered cuts in order to balance district budgets (pennsylvania association of school administrators, and pennsylvania association of school business officials 2015). methodology secondary data on the number of special education students and special education expenditures and revenues from the period 2003–2004 through 2013– 2014 were used in the analyses; both school districts and charter schools were included in the data collection and analyses. the principal source for financial data was the pennsylvania department of education, (pde); the department’s website had much of the necessary fiscal information for the study. enrollment data for special education students came from the bureau of special education (pennsylvania department of education 2014a) via the penndata special education reporting system of the pennsylvania department of education; the data system is maintained by the pennsylvania state data center.2 the level of analysis was the school district and charter school. charter schools were classified into brick-and-mortar and cyber schools according to 74 william t. hartman the pde’s identification and analyzed separately where possible. findings for special education enrollments, expenditures, and revenues were aggregated to the state level to determine the total state results. key results enrollments special education students in pennsylvania are served in two primary ways— school districts and charter schools. as shown in figure 1, the dominant providers of special education services were school districts. in 2012–2013, 93% of all special education students were enrolled in school district programs, while charter schools served 7% of these students. however, over the last nine years, both the number and share of special education students in school districts have declined steadily. school districts have 7,970 fewer special education students, which represents a 3.1% decline in their enrollments since 2004–2005. over the same period, charter schools have gained 12,791 special education students, a 242.3% increase, but starting from a small base. however, even after this steady shift, school districts still serve over 90% of special education students. the specific data on special education enrollments are provided in the appendix (see table a.1). compared to numbers for total student enrollments, the relative decline in school districts for special education was less than the decline in total district enrollment, while special education enrollments in charter schools increased at a substantially faster rate than their total enrollments. 265,000 40,000 35,000260,000 30,000 255,000 25,000 llm en t 250,000 20,000 llm en t ro ro en 245,000 ric t 15,000 sc ho ol en sc ho ol d ist 240,000 10,000 ch ar te r 235,000 5,000 230,000 0 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 school districts total charter schools b & m cyber figure 1. special education enrollments: school districts and charter schools. (source: pennsylvania department of education.) special education funding in pennsylvania 75 the analysis of special education enrollments by type of charter school— brick-and-mortar and cyber—revealed quite different enrollment patterns from school districts. for both brick-and-mortar and cyber charter schools enrollments grew substantially over the study period. brick-and-mortar charter schools gained 9,356 special education students (204%) during the nine years and cyber charter schools grew by 3,435 special education students (494%), which were very large percentage increases, but again from small bases. the specific data on special education enrollments by type of charter school are provided in the appendix (see table a.2). percentage of special education students in total enrollments. one of the concerns about charter schools was that they were systematically avoiding serving students with disabilities. to examine this issue, the proportion of special education students of the total number of students in each group served was determined; the results are shown in figure 2. over the past nine years the proportion of special education students served by school districts has been relatively stable at around 15%, growing only very slightly. however, the proportion of special education students served in brick-and-mortar charter schools has grown steadily from 12% of the total student population in 2004–2005 to 15% in 2012–2013. special education enrollments in cyber charter schools grew even faster, starting at 8% in 2004–2005 to over 16% of their total enrollment in 2102–2013, when it exceeded the service rate in school districts and brick-and-mortar charter schools. rather than avoiding special education students, charter schools have been serving an increasing number of them. this was particularly true of cyber charter schools. 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 cyber cs school districts b&m charter figure 2. special education enrollments as percent of total enrollment: school districts and charter schools. (source: pennsylvania department of education.) 76 william t. hartman types of special education students served. another comparison of special education student populations between school districts and charter schools is the relative proportions of different types of special education students they serve. due to the nature of their disabilities, some special education students require additional and more intensive instructional and support services to meet their educational needs, and these services are more costly to provide. chambers, shkolnik, and perez (2003) found “the two most common disabilities, specific learning disability (sld) and speech/ language impairment (sli), make up over 60% of the population. .  .  . these are also the two disabilities with the lowest per pupil expenditures” (p. 4). they also found that cost per student for other types of disabilities ranges from 25% to 100% greater. the analysis examined whether the special education student populations served by school districts and charter schools were more similar or different in terms of their severity, and, consequently, more or less costly to serve. figure 3 presents the comparison of types of special education students served between school districts and charter schools in 2012–2013, the latest year of available data. the largest single category of students served for either school districts or charter schools was specific learning disabilities; 55% of charter school special education students were in this category, while school districts had classified 45% of their special education students here. this was the only category in which charter schools had a higher percentage of their special education students than did school districts. the second largest category was speech and language impairments, with 16% of special education students for school 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% autism emotional mental retardation other health specific learning speech or language disturbance impairment disability impairment school districts charter schools figure 3. largest special education categories served by school districts and charter schools in 2012–2013. (source: pennsylvania department of education.) special education funding in pennsylvania 77 districts and 11% for charter schools. taken together, these two categories represented 61% and 66% of the special education enrollment for school districts and charter schools respectively for the two categories with the lowest spending ratios. the other four categories were low incidence disabilities with higher spending per student (autism, emotional disturbance, intellectual disability,3 and other health impairment). in these categories school districts ranged from 11% to 7% of their special education students with charter schools from 1% to 5% lower. the higher expenditure disabilities for school districts totaled 37% of the special education population they served, while the higher expenditure disabilities comprised 21% of the charter school’s special education population. in summary, both school districts and charter schools had a higher proportion of the lower expenditure special education students, but the school districts served greater proportions of higher expenditure students. expenditures.4 throughout the 10-year study period, expenditures for special education grew steadily, as shown in figure 4. as with special education enrollments, school districts were the dominant group in special education expenditures. total expenditures for school districts went from $2.2 billion in 2003–2004 to $3.8 billion in 2013–2014, a gain of over $1.6 billion or approximately $160 million per year. this represented an average annual increase of almost 6% and a total 10-year increase of 76%. for charter schools, the changes were smaller in absolute numbers, but substantially greater in terms of percentage changes growing $159 million, or $16 million annually over the same period; this was a 10-year growth of 859% and an annual aver$4,000 $200 $180 $3,500 $160 $3,000 $140 s $2,500 ch ar te r s ch oo ls sc ho ol d is tr ic t $120 $2,000 $100 $80 $1,500 $60 $1,000 $40 $500 $20 $0 $0 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 school districts charter schools figure 4. special education expenditures for school districts and charter schools in millions of dollars (source: pennsylvania department of education.) 78 william t. hartman age growth rate of 26%, admittedly from a smaller base. the annual expenditure data are provided in the appendix (see table a.3). special education tuition payments and expenditures in charter schools there is a substantial and growing difference between the amount of tuition payments made by school districts to charter schools for special education students and the amount of special education expenditures reported by charter schools. the differences for 2009–2010 through 2013–2014 are shown in figure 5. the annual amount of tuition payments for special education students in excess of total special expenditures has risen steadily from $84 million in 2009–2010 to $259 million in 2013–2014 and has totaled over $550 million over those five years. over this time, less than half of the tuition payments to charter schools for special education students have been used for special education instructional expenditures for these students. looking only at the annual increases, approximately two-thirds of the tuition payments to charter schools for special education students were in excess of the increases in reported special education instructional expenditures by charter schools. annual expenditure data along with five-year totals are provided in the appendix (see table a.4). unlike categorical funds for special education received from the state and federal governments, which are required to be spent on special education stu$500,000,000 $450,000,000 $400,000,000 $350,000,000 $300,000,000 $250,000,000 $200,000,000 $150,000,000 $100,000,000 $50,000,000 $0 2009-10* 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 total tuition paymentsexcess paymentscs expenditures figure 5. special education tuition payments and expenditures in charter schools. (source: pennsylvania department of education.) special education funding in pennsylvania 79 dents and documented through an audit trail, no such requirement is in place for charter schools. the tuition payments received by charter schools generated by special education students enrolled in their programs are not required to be spent for special education instruction and support. as a result, these monies can be spent for any legitimate expenditure of the charter schools. while there are certainly other expenditures beyond instruction and support services that are necessary to serve special education students, spending less than half of the tuition payments on instruction indicates these funds are used mainly for purposes other than special education. by comparison, the state subsidy for special education provided to school districts in 2013–2014 represents approximately 27% of their reported special education expenditures and the federal funds contribute approximately 6% of district special expenditures. in practice, the bulk of these excess tuition payments functions as a general subsidy to charter schools mandated by the legislature, but paid for by school districts and their taxpayers. revenues school districts receive revenues specifically for special education programs and services from three main sources: state revenues, federal revenues, and local funding. the 10-year funding trends for these sources are shown in figure 6. state and federal funds are known as categorical funds. that is, they can only be used for a specified purpose or program—in this case, special educa$4.0 $3.5 $3.0 $2.5 $2.0 bi lli on s $1.5 $ $1.0 $0.5 $0.0 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 expenditures local revenues state revenues federal revenues figure 6. ten-year trends in special education expenditures and revenues. (source: pennsylvania department of education.) 80 william t. hartman tion. they are not permitted to be diverted to other purposes in the school districts. annual audits from state and federal agencies monitor the categorical revenues to ensure their proper use. specific revenues for special education in charter schools come primarily from tuition payments from school districts for their special education students enrolled in charter schools. state revenues. the state provides specific subsidies for districts to support special education expenditures under the revenue category, “specialized education of exceptional pupils.”5 over the past 10 years the state subsidy for special education has grown by $117 million or 13.7% in total. however, the state subsidy for special education is a tale of two time periods. most of the gains occurred during the first period from 2003–2004 through 2009–2010. in these first years, there was steady growth in the range of 1.1% to 3.3% annually, which yielded annual increases of $10 million to $30 million in total subsidy amounts. these increases represented 105% of the 10-year gains, since there were decreases in state subsidy amounts in the following years. in 2009– 2010, the situation changed; annual increases changed to decreases or were a fraction of previous increases. this second period coincided with the start of the great recession, as well as the influx of federal funds for special education under the american recovery and reinvestment act of 2009 (arra) and expansion of federal revenues. while the recession had a negative impact on total state tax revenue, the addition of new federal revenues may have eased the funding pressure on the legislature. in any event, the reductions and leveling off of state subsidies for special education were the result of appropriation decisions by the legislature, which provided little or no additional state funding for special education over these years. specific data for annual state subsidies for special education are provided in the appendix (see table a.5). federal revenues. federal funding for special education has come primarily from revenues distributed from the individuals with disabilities education act (idea). these funds have been received by districts in two different funding streams. one is identified under the federal revenue section accounts as federal idea revenues;6 the other is coded under local revenues and known as federal idea revenue received as pass-through.7 these two funding sources have had very different and offsetting patterns over the last 10 years. federal idea revenues originally were the sole federal source for funding special education for pennsylvania and the annual amounts were in excess of $50 million. beginning in 2006–2007 the funding level dropped to approximately $35 million annually. once arra funds ceased, the federal idea revenues returned to their prior levels for two years and in 2013–2014 dropped to $9 million. at this same time, additional federal funds supportspecial education funding in pennsylvania 81 ing special education were received under a new designation, federal idea revenue received as pass-through. the combined federal funding sources provided a greater magnitude of funding as pass-through stream as the federal idea funds were phased out. the federal stimulus monies, coming from the arra, provided a substantial funding increase in funding in 2009–2010 and 2010–2011 for two years. following the end of additional federal funds for special education in 2011–2012, the total federal contribution declined somewhat although it remained at a higher level than before. the annual funding amounts from both federal sources are shown in the appendix (see table a.5). fiscal summary: special education expenditures and revenues the complete special education budget for school districts includes both the special education expenditures and the revenues to fund the programs and services for special education. special education programs operated or funded by school districts have internal expenditures of district-operated programs and tuition payments to charter schools for special education students enrolled there. these expenditures have to be balanced by revenues to provide funding to support these expenditures. in budget planning and implementation, districts start with state subsidies and federal funds for special education. the balance to support special education expenditures comes from local funds. for school districts there is a basic budget balancing equation that must be met. special education expenditures = state + federal + local revenues for special education on the revenue side of the equation, after the state and federal funding has been estimated, the local portion functions essentially as a balancing figure; that is, if there is a shortfall between the expenditures and outside sources of funding from state and federal levels, then the school districts make up the difference from their own funds, which are derived mainly from local taxes on district residents. the budget trends for expenditures and state, federal, and local revenues are given in figure 6. using 2013–2014 as an example to illustrate the procedure and results, expenditures for instruction totaled $3,673 billion, and expenditures for support were $136 million for a total expenditure amount of $3.809 billion. these expenditures were supported by state revenues of $977 million, federal revenues of $225 million from two sources, for a total of state 82 william t. hartman and federal funding of $1.201 billion. the difference between total expenditures and other funding sources was $2.607 billion that was required to be supported by local funds. the 10-year dollar growth for special education expenditures totaled $1.645 billion. the increase in funds was supported by $118 million from state subsidies, $174 million from federal funding, leaving $1.353 billion to be sourced from local funds. the result of this funding pattern is that school districts have borne the brunt of budgeting needs through annual increases in the amount of funding required to balance their special education budgets. the full results for all years are provided in in the appendix (see table a.6). the share of special education expenditures supported by the various funding sources has also changed substantially over the 10-year period, reflecting the changing amounts of funding provided by the different sources. the 10-year trends are illustrated in figure 7. for all districts, the average share of state funds began in 2003–2004 at 40%; it dropped to 32% by 2008–2009, and to 26% in 2013–2014 for an overall drop of 14% of total share of support over the 10 years. federal sources started from a lower base and had a 3.5% gain over the same period. to provide the balance of funding for special education, the local share increased from 58% in 2003–2004 to 68% by 2013–2014, a gain of 10.5% of funding share. over the 10-year study period, school districts experienced substantial funding increases for special education and a sharp rise in the share of special figure 7. trends in share of special education revenues by funding source. (source: pennsylvania department of education.) 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 local 57.9% 60.5% 62.3% 60.7% 61.2% 62.2% 58.7% 61.9% 65.5% 67.4% 68.4% state 39.7% 37.2% 35.6% 34.2% 33.4% 32.3% 30.7% 29.0% 28.6% 27.2% 25.6% federal 2.4% 2.3% 2.1% 5.1% 5.4% 5.5% 10.6% 9.1% 5.9% 5.4% 5.9% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% local state federal special education funding in pennsylvania 83 education costs they supported. concurrently, with small to no increases in state funding for special education, the state share of support dropped precipitously. this raises an analytical question of what would have happened if the state educational and fiscal policy makers had chosen instead to maintain the same share of state support for special education funding over the 10-year period. the percentage share data for all years by funding source are provided in the appendix (see table a.7). to show the fiscal impact of the changing levels of state and local support, a hypothetical analysis was done to calculate the impact of maintaining the funding shares at the 2003–2004 level for the following 10 years. in the analysis, the dollar amount of expenditures was kept the same, but the 2003–2004 state and local percentage shares were applied to the expenditures of all following years; the state shares remained fixed at 40% and the local share at 58%. the 10-year total increase from federal funds was held constant to focus the analysis on state and local policy decisions. the summary results are shown in table 1. the estimate is that there would have been a shift of $535 million from local funding to state subsidies for special education over this time. while many considerations and judgments were behind policy decisions resulting in the 10-year ongoing reduction in state share, the fiscal effect on school districts was to increase substantially the local funding required for special education. this necessity is likely to have resulted in school districts reallocating funding away from other educational areas and into special education, and increasing local taxes to offset the drop in state funding. at the state level, to have maintained the same state share of support for special education as in 2003–2004 would have required reallocations away from other areas supported by state funding and into increased state subsidies for special education. table 1. hypothetical change in state and local funding of special education using 2003–2004 state and local shares 10-year change actual using 2003–2004 state share difference expenditures $1,645,044,584 $1,645,044,584 $0 revenues       state $117,606,743 $652,958,956 $535,352,212 local $1,353,524,309 $818,172,097 ($535,352,212) federal $173,913,532 $173,913,532 $0 84 william t. hartman special education fiscal policy discussion and choices two main conclusions come out of the study regarding existing policies governing special education funding in pennsylvania. 1. state funding for special education has stagnated over the past six years and this policy choice has greatly burdened school districts with replacing the state share to the tune of approximately $535 million over the past 10 years. 2. t uition payments to charter schools from school districts have grown rapidly over the past five years and have exceeded the reported special education expenditures by charter schools by approximately $550 million over this period. taken together the fiscal impact on school districts has been over $1 billion, half from lower state revenues and half from excessive tuition payments to charter schools for special education students. as a result, there currently exists a structural funding imbalance for special education. district expenditures for special education are growing at a 5–6% rate annually. these are driven by: a) required costs to serve students in district-operated programs (4% annual growth) and b) mandatory tuition payments to charter schools (19%–25% annually). state subsidies have been at zero growth for six years, leaving the school district budgets and taxpayers to make up for lack of state revenue and the rapidly increasing tuition payments to charter schools. in response to expressed concerns and complaints from school districts, the legislature established the special education funding commission in 2013 (act 3 of 2013). the rationale for the commission was the “state government’s interest in reforming a system that has been in place for a long time but is often seen as not fairly and adequately serving the current needs in pennsylvania for students with disabilities and their schools.”8 its purpose was to review the funding system for special education in the commonwealth and to recommend a new formula or approach for distributing state subsidies for special education. the commission issued its final report in december 2013. following the commission’s recommendations, the pennsylvania legislature established a new formula to allocate new state funding (beyond 2010–2011 levels) according to three cost categories based on the intensity of services required by students eligible for special education services: category 1 for the least intensive range of services; category 2 for a moderate range of services; category 3 for the most intensive range of services.9 the new distribution special education funding in pennsylvania 85 formula was to be used for additional funds only; the distribution for existing special education subsidies remained in place. for the 2014–2015 school year, the legislature appropriated $20 million for special education subsidies for school districts, a 2% increase in state funds over the prior year and the first increase in six years. (pennsylvania department of education 2014b). the $20 million increase in state subsidy in 2014– 2015 is a move in the proper direction. however, in reality it does relatively little to close the funding gap. consequently, without a substantial increase in state aid school districts will be left to support an increasing share and amount of special education expenditures. the existing policies governing special education funding for charter schools provide financial incentives for increasing the number of special education students in their schools. in 2013–2014 cyber charter schools had a higher percentage of their students classified as special education than school districts. as shown in table 2, the average district tuition payment per student for their special education students in a charter school in 2013–2014 was about double that for nonspecial (regular) students. since tuition payments are not uniform across the state, but calculated separately for each school district, charter schools received a wide range of rates per student for providing similar services to special education students with similar needs. further, the tuition payment is based neither on the type of special education student nor the cost of serving a student; each district is charged its individual state-calculated tuition rate. this provides a further financial incentive to serve those special education students with the lowest costs. in practice, this is what has happened; within the population of special education students that they serve, charter schools have a higher percentage of lower cost students and a substantially lower percentage of higher cost students. this policy for funding special education in charter schools has a more implicit funding outcome. with approximately half of the tuition payments being in excess of charter schools’ instructional costs, the extra funds not used for special education can function as general aid to charter schools. this practice is established and maintained through the current statutes and has proved resistant to change due to the efforts of a very effective charter school table 2. 2013–2014 charter school tuition rates per student type of student special non-special average tuition payment $19,823 $9,564 minimum tuition payment $12,884 $6,628 maximum tuition payment $43,047 $17,182 source: pennsylvania department of education. 86 william t. hartman lobby. this policy drove out approximately $260 million beyond instructional costs to charter schools in 2013–2014 that could be used as general operation funds for school districts; the five-year total of this additional funding was $550 million. to put this in perspective, for 2013–2014, the additional state funding to school districts that year was less than $1 million for special education and approximately $100 million for basic education funding. in effect, it is a hidden subsidy for charter school general operations, mandated by the state, but funded by school districts and taxpayers. these are local tax monies that are being directed to charter schools as general, unrestricted aid and away from school district programs. any policy considerations in this area depend on the objective of policy makers. if the primary objective is to reduce expenditures for school districts, then a direct choice on the revenue side is to increase state funding support for special education. the $20 million increase in 2014–2015 is a relatively small start, but it is in the right direction to redress the imbalance. a policy choice to continue this effort would increase the state share over time to previous levels. however, implementation of this approach is constrained by the current fiscal situation in the state, other pressing demands for state funds such as pension reform, and the currently looming state-level structural budget deficits that limit available state resources to deal with fiscal problems. the expenditure side offers another policy opportunity to reducing district costs and taxpayer burdens. there is substantial room for reduction in district expenditures by basing tuition payments for special education more on actual charter school expenditures rather than district tuition amounts. from the districts’ perspective, it would have the same impact on their budgets as a substantial increase in the state subsidy for special education. a change of this sort would not require additional funding from the state and would significantly reduce the burden on school districts and taxpayers. however, it would substantially reduce the revenues of charter schools by the same amounts. on the other hand, if the objective is to maintain the level of funding to charter schools, then continuing the current funding stream to charter schools from the special education tuition payments will accomplish this. the present policy of mandating district special education tuition payments to charter schools in excess of their expenditures will increase the amount of taxpayer-funded subsidies for other, non–special education charter school expenditures. however, there would be no additional funding required from the state, since school districts are paying the noninstructional expenditures to charter schools as an unfunded mandate. appendix table a.1. special education enrollments by school districts and charter schools total enrollment special education enrollment share of special education enrollment year school district charter school school district charter school total school district share charter school share 2004– 2005 1,771,532 47,185 258,142 5,280 263,422 98% 2% 2005– 2006 1,766,921 54,730 262,492 7,128 269,620 97% 3% 2006– 2007 1,753,129 58,377 262,955 7,441 270,396 97% 3% 2007– 2008 1,718,588 62,527 261,678 8,831 270,509 97% 3% 2008– 2009 1,697,300 72,602 260,872 9,824 270,696 96% 4% 2009– 2010 1,713,239 79,185 258,601 10,882 269,483 96% 4% 2010– 2011 1,703,800 90,632 257,060 12,640 269,700 95% 5% 2011– 2012 1,660,382 104,985 252,580 15,399 267,979 94% 6% 2012– 2013 1,641,781 118,449 250,172 18,071 268,243 93% 7% 9-year change (129,751) 71,264 (7,970) 12,791 4,821 -5% 5% 9-year % change –7.3% 151.0% –3.1% 242.3% 1.8%     source: bureau of special education, pennsylvania department of education. data provided began in 2004–2005 and concluded in 2012–2013. * special education enrollment data do not include students identified as gifted. data provided began in 2004–2005 and concluded in 2012–2013. table a.2. special education enrollments by type of charter school school districts charter schools state total   brick & mortar cyber total 2004–2005 258,142 4,584 696 5,280 263,422 2005–2006 262,492 5,846 1,282 7,128 269,620 2006–2007 262,955 5,799 1,642 7,441 270,396 2007–2008 261,678 6,639 2,192 8,831 270,509 2008–2009 260,750 7,169 2,655 9,824 270,574 2009–2010 258,601 8,734 2,148 10,882 269,483 2010–2011 257,060 8,669 3,971 12,640 269,700 2011–2012 252,580 10,464 4,935 15,399 267,979 2012–2013 250,172 13,940 4,131 18,071 268,243 9-year change (7,970) 9,356 3,435 12,791 4,821 9-year % change –3.1% 204.1% 493.5% 242.3% 1.8% source: bureau of special education, pennsylvania department of education. ta bl e a .3 . sp ec ia l e du ca ti on e xp en di tu re s by s ch oo l d is tr ic ts a nd c ha rt er s ch oo ls to ta l e xp en di tu re s an nu al c ha ng e % a nn ua l c ha ng e ye ar s ch oo l d is tr ic ts c ha rt er s ch oo ls s ch oo l d is tr ic ts c ha rt er s ch oo ls s ch oo l d is tr ic ts c ha rt er s ch oo ls 2 0 0 3 –2 0 0 4 $ 2, 16 4 ,1 10 ,2 6 6 $1 8 ,5 3 5 ,9 8 6 2 0 0 4 –2 0 0 5 $ 2 ,3 5 6 ,5 76 ,8 0 5 $ 25 ,0 4 0 ,8 6 4 $1 9 2, 4 6 6 ,5 3 9 $ 6 ,5 0 4 ,8 78 8 .9 % 3 5 .1 % 2 0 0 5 –2 0 0 6 $ 2, 5 27 ,0 2 2, 4 8 2 $ 31 ,9 9 3 ,7 81 $1 70 ,4 4 5 ,6 7 7 $ 6 ,9 5 2, 91 7 7. 2 % 27 .8 % 2 0 0 6 –2 0 07 $ 2, 70 4 ,4 70 ,5 2 9 $ 4 3 ,8 2 2, 5 49 $1 7 7, 4 4 8 ,0 47 $1 1, 8 2 8 ,7 6 8 7. 0 % 37 .0 % 2 0 07 –2 0 0 8 $ 2, 8 6 3 ,6 71 ,9 4 6 $ 49 ,7 5 4 ,1 9 3 $1 5 9, 2 01 ,4 17 $ 5 ,9 31 ,6 4 4 5 .9 % 13 .5 % 2 0 0 8 –2 0 0 9 $ 3 ,0 07 ,7 01 ,9 75 $ 6 6 ,4 37 ,9 6 0 $1 4 4 ,0 3 0 ,0 2 9 $1 6 ,6 8 3 ,7 6 7 5 .0 % 3 3 .5 % 2 0 0 9 –2 01 0 $ 3 ,2 0 4 ,5 2 2, 3 31 $ 8 9, 69 8 ,3 71 $1 9 6 ,8 2 0 ,3 5 5 $ 2 3 ,2 6 0 ,4 11 6 .5 % 3 5 .0 % 2 01 0 –2 01 1 $ 3 ,3 6 4 ,4 3 4 ,1 2 2 $1 07 ,7 6 6 ,5 07 $1 5 9, 91 1, 79 1 $1 8 ,0 6 8 ,1 3 6 5 .0 % 2 0 .1 % 2 01 1– 2 01 2 $ 3 ,4 13 ,7 21 ,9 3 9 $1 3 3 ,7 0 4 ,4 4 4 $ 49 ,2 8 7, 81 6 $ 25 ,9 37 ,9 37 1. 5% 24 .1 % 2 01 2 –2 01 3 $ 3 ,5 8 7, 8 9 8 ,2 5 9 $1 51 ,3 72 ,8 21 $1 74 ,1 76 ,3 21 $1 7, 6 6 8 ,3 7 7 5 .1 % 13 .2 % 2 01 3 –2 01 4 $ 3 ,8 0 9, 15 4 ,8 5 0 $1 7 7, 78 5 ,0 8 4 $ 2 21 ,2 5 6 ,5 91 $ 2 6 ,4 12 ,2 6 2 6 .2 % 17 .4 % to ta l g ro w th $1 ,6 4 5 ,0 4 4 ,5 8 4 $1 5 9, 24 9, 0 9 8 76 .0 % 8 5 9. 1% a ve ra ge a nn ua l g ro w th r at e $1 6 4 ,5 0 4 ,4 5 8 $1 5 ,9 24 ,9 10 5 .8 % 25 .7 % so ur ce : p en ns yl va ni a d ep ar tm en t of e du ca ti on , su m m ar y of a nn ua l f in an ci al r ep or t d at a. ta bl e a .4 . s pe ci al e du ca ti on t ui ti on p ay m en ts a nd e xp en di tu re s in c ha rt er s ch oo ls ye ar tu iti on p ay m en ts fo r s pe ci al e du ca ti on st ud en ts to ta l s pe ci al e du ca ti on e xp en di tu re s by c ha rt er s ch oo ls ** p ay m en ts to c ha rt er s ch oo ls i n e xc es s of e xp en di tu re s p ay m en ts a s % o f to ta l e xp en di tu re s p er ce nt e xc es s p ay m en ts co de 56 2 to ta l 56 2 – to ta l     2 0 0 9 –2 01 0 * $1 74 ,1 37 ,9 27 $ 8 9, 69 8 ,3 71 $ 8 4 ,4 3 9, 5 57 5 2 % 4 8 % 2 01 0 –2 01 1 $ 21 6 ,0 8 4 ,4 16 $1 07 ,7 6 6 ,5 07 $1 0 8 ,3 17 ,9 10 5 0 % 5 0 % 2 01 1– 2 01 2 $ 2 9 4 ,9 91 ,0 9 3 $1 3 3 ,7 0 4 ,4 4 4 $1 61 ,2 8 6 ,6 5 0 4 5% 5 5% 2 01 2 –2 01 3 $ 3 5 0 ,5 6 2, 8 79 $1 51 ,3 72 ,8 21 $1 9 9, 19 0 ,0 57 4 3 % 57 % 2 01 3 –2 01 4 $ 4 37 ,0 9 9, 8 0 4 $1 7 7, 78 5 ,0 8 4 $ 25 9, 31 4 ,7 2 0 41 % 5 9 % 5 -y ea r to ta l $1 ,0 3 5 ,7 76 ,3 16 $ 4 8 2, 5 4 2, 14 3 $ 5 5 3 ,2 3 4 ,1 7 3 47 % 5 3 % an nu al i nc re as es % o f an nu al i nc re as e 2 01 0 –2 01 1 $ 41 ,9 4 6 ,4 8 9 $1 8 ,0 6 8 ,1 3 6 $ 2 3 ,8 78 ,3 5 3 4 3 % 57 % 2 01 1– 2 01 2 $7 8 ,9 0 6 ,6 7 7 $ 25 ,9 37 ,9 37 $ 5 2, 9 6 8 ,7 4 0 3 3 % 6 7 % 2 01 2 –2 01 3 $ 5 5 ,5 71 ,7 8 5 $1 7, 6 6 8 ,3 7 7 $ 37 ,9 0 3 ,4 0 8 3 2 % 6 8 % 2 01 3 –2 01 4 $ 8 6 ,5 3 6 ,9 25 $ 2 6 ,4 12 ,2 6 2 $ 6 0 ,1 24 ,6 6 3 31 % 69 % 4 -y ea r to ta l $ 2 6 2, 9 61 ,8 7 7 $ 8 8 ,0 8 6 ,7 13 $1 74 ,8 75 ,1 6 4 3 3 % 6 7 % so ur ce : p en ns yl va ni a d ep ar tm en t of e du ca ti on , s um m ar y of a nn ua l f in an ci al r ep or t d at a. * 2 0 0 9 –2 01 0 is t he fi rs t ye ar f or w hi ch c ha rt er s ch oo l t ui ti on p ay m en ts f or s pe ci al s tu de nt s w er e se pa ra te d fr om n on sp ec ia l st ud en ts . ** t ot al e xp en di tu re s in cl ud e 12 0 0 s pe ci al e du ca ti on e xp en di tu re s, 2 14 0 p sy ch ol og ic al s er vi ce s, a nd 2 15 0 s pe ec h p at ho log y an d a ud io lo gy s er vi ce s. ta bl e a .5 . s pe ci al e du ca ti on s ub si di es t o s ch oo l d is tr ic ts st at e an d fe de ra l f un ds ye ar st at e to ta l * fe de ra l id e a to ta l ** fe de ra l p as sth ro ug h ** * fe de ra l to ta l to ta l st at e an d fe de ra l 2 0 0 3 –2 0 0 4 $ 8 5 8 ,9 8 8 ,9 8 6 $ 51 ,3 21 ,5 9 6   $ 51 ,3 21 ,5 9 6 $ 91 0 ,3 10 ,5 8 2 2 0 0 4 –2 0 0 5 $ 8 7 7, 2 8 6 ,4 4 3 $ 5 4 ,1 9 3 ,8 07   $ 5 4 ,1 9 3 ,8 07 $ 9 31 ,4 8 0 ,2 49 2 0 0 5 –2 0 0 6 $ 8 9 9, 13 9, 5 49 $ 5 3 ,1 4 2, 0 07   $ 5 3 ,1 4 2, 0 07 $ 9 5 2, 2 81 ,5 5 6 2 0 0 6 –2 0 07 $ 9 25 ,0 21 ,1 8 3 $ 3 5 ,1 5 5 ,4 10 $1 0 2, 4 0 2, 6 3 0 $1 37 ,5 5 8 ,0 4 0 $1 ,0 6 2, 57 9, 2 2 3 2 0 07 –2 0 0 8 $ 9 5 5 ,8 51 ,5 18 $ 3 4 ,8 24 ,4 6 0 $1 19 ,7 8 3 ,2 9 0 $1 5 4 ,6 07 ,7 5 0 $1 ,1 10 ,4 5 9, 2 6 8 2 0 0 8 –2 0 0 9 $ 97 2, 2 2 8 ,7 8 9 $ 3 5 ,3 0 2, 19 8 $1 3 0 ,5 70 ,8 2 9 $1 6 5 ,8 7 3 ,0 27 $1 ,1 3 8 ,1 01 ,8 16 2 0 0 9 –2 01 0 $ 9 8 2, 72 1, 10 2 $1 14 ,0 3 6 ,4 3 6 $ 2 2 6 ,7 21 ,1 2 0 $ 3 4 0 ,7 57 ,5 5 5 $1 ,3 2 3 ,4 78 ,6 5 8 2 01 0 –2 01 1 $ 97 6 ,1 3 4 ,9 3 5 $ 9 3 ,6 0 6 ,3 4 0 $ 21 3 ,7 8 7, 69 5 $ 3 07 ,3 9 4 ,0 3 4 $1 ,2 8 3 ,5 2 8 ,9 69 2 01 1– 2 01 2 $ 97 6 ,7 0 8 ,0 3 3 $ 3 6 ,9 78 ,2 25 $1 6 2, 76 6 ,3 9 9 $1 9 9, 74 4 ,6 24 $1 ,1 76 ,4 5 2, 6 57 2 01 2 –2 01 3 $ 97 6 ,0 7 3 ,1 31 $ 31 ,2 6 4 ,5 4 4 $1 61 ,3 15 ,2 14 $1 9 2, 57 9, 75 8 $1 ,1 6 8 ,6 5 2, 8 8 9 2 01 3 –2 01 4 $ 97 6 ,5 9 5 ,7 2 9 $ 9, 5 4 0 ,7 3 5 $ 21 5 ,6 9 4 ,3 9 3 $ 2 25 ,2 3 5 ,1 2 8 $1 ,2 01 ,8 3 0 ,8 57 to ta l g ro w th $1 17 ,6 0 6 ,7 4 3 ($ 41 ,7 8 0 ,8 61 ) $ 21 5 ,6 9 4 ,3 9 3 $1 7 3 ,9 13 ,5 3 2 $ 2 91 ,5 2 0 ,2 76 so ur ce : p en ns yl va ni a d ep ar tm en t of e du ca ti on , su m m ar y of a nn ua l f in an ci al r ep or t d at a. * in cl ud es b ot h 72 71 s ch oo l a ge d p up ils a nd 7 2 72 e ar ly i nt er ve nt io n su bs id ie s. ** i nc lu de s bo th i d e a ( 8 51 2 /8 51 3) a nd a r r a -i d e a ( 8 70 1 /8 70 2 ) fu nd s. ** * in cl ud es b ot h id e a ( 6 8 3 2 ) an d a r r a -i d e a ( 6 8 3 3) f un ds . ta bl e a .6 . s pe ci al e du ca ti on e xp en di tu re s an d r ev en ue s: a 1 0 -y ea r r ev ie w ex pe nd itu re s r ev en ue s in st ru ct io n su pp or t to ta l st at e fe de ra l st at e & fe de ra l lo ca l 20 0 3 –2 0 0 4 $2 ,0 8 6, 10 1, 18 5 $7 8, 00 9, 08 1 $2 ,1 64 ,11 0, 26 6 $8 58 ,9 88 ,9 86 $5 1, 32 1, 59 6 $9 10 ,3 10 ,5 82 $1 ,2 53 ,7 99 ,6 84 20 0 4 –2 0 05 $2 ,2 72 ,8 01 ,7 96 $8 3, 77 5, 00 9 $2 ,3 56 ,5 76 ,8 05 $8 77 ,2 86 ,4 43 $5 4, 19 3, 80 7 $9 31 ,4 80 ,2 49 $1 ,4 25 ,0 96 ,5 55 20 05 –2 0 0 6 $2 ,4 38 ,3 76 ,4 98 $8 8, 64 5, 98 4 $2 ,5 27 ,0 22 ,4 82 $8 99 ,1 39 ,5 49 $5 3, 14 2, 00 7 $9 52 ,2 81 ,5 56 $1 ,5 74 ,7 40 ,9 26 20 0 6 –2 0 07 $2 ,6 08 ,8 95 ,0 90 $9 5, 57 5, 44 0 $2 ,7 04 ,4 70 ,5 29 $9 25 ,0 21 ,1 83 $1 37 ,5 58 ,0 40 $1 ,0 62 ,5 79 ,2 23 $1 ,6 41 ,8 91 ,3 06 20 07 –2 0 0 8 $2 ,7 62 ,9 92 ,0 90 $1 00 ,6 79 ,8 56 $2 ,8 63 ,6 71 ,9 46 $9 55 ,8 51 ,5 18 $1 54 ,6 07 ,7 50 $1 ,11 0, 45 9, 26 8 $1 ,7 53 ,2 12 ,6 78 20 0 8 –2 0 0 9 $2 ,9 01 ,3 98 ,7 46 $1 06 ,3 03 ,2 30 $3 ,0 07 ,7 01 ,9 75 $9 72 ,2 28 ,7 89 $1 65 ,8 73 ,0 27 $1 ,1 38 ,1 01 ,8 16 $1 ,8 69 ,6 00 ,1 60 20 0 9 –2 01 0 $3 ,0 90 ,1 67 ,3 93 $1 14 ,3 54 ,9 37 $3 ,2 04 ,5 22 ,3 31 $9 82 ,7 21 ,1 02 $3 40 ,7 57 ,5 55 $1 ,3 23 ,4 78 ,6 58 $1 ,8 81 ,0 43 ,6 73 20 10 –2 01 1 $3 ,2 45 ,0 11 ,7 69 $1 19 ,4 22 ,3 53 $3 ,3 64 ,4 34 ,1 22 $9 76 ,1 34 ,9 35 $3 07 ,3 94 ,0 34 $1 ,2 83 ,5 28 ,9 69 $2 ,0 80 ,9 05 ,1 53 20 11 –2 01 2 $3 ,2 90 ,6 72 ,4 95 $1 23 ,0 49 ,4 44 $3 ,4 13 ,7 21 ,9 39 $9 76 ,7 08 ,0 33 $1 99 ,7 44 ,6 24 $1 ,1 76 ,4 52 ,6 57 $2 ,2 37 ,2 69 ,2 82 20 12 –2 01 3 $3 ,4 61 ,0 58 ,2 40 $1 26 ,8 40 ,0 19 $3 ,5 87 ,8 98 ,2 59 $9 76 ,0 73 ,1 31 $1 92 ,5 79 ,7 58 $1 ,1 68 ,6 52 ,8 89 $2 ,4 19 ,2 45 ,3 70 20 13 –2 01 4 $3 ,6 73 ,1 92 ,2 62 $1 35 ,9 62 ,5 89 $3 ,8 09 ,1 54 ,8 50 $9 76 ,5 95 ,7 29 $2 25 ,2 35 ,1 28 $1 ,2 01 ,8 30 ,8 57 $2 ,6 07 ,3 23 ,9 93 10 -y ea r ch an ge s $1 ,5 87 ,0 91 ,0 77 $5 7, 95 3, 50 8 $1 ,6 45 ,0 44 ,5 84 $1 17 ,6 06 ,7 43 $1 73 ,9 13 ,5 32 $2 91 ,5 20 ,2 76 $1 ,3 53 ,5 24 ,3 09 so ur ce : p en ns yl va ni a d ep ar tm en t of e du ca ti on , su m m ar y of a nn ua l f in an ci al r ep or t d at a. special education funding in pennsylvania 93 table a.7. share of special education revenues by funding source revenues state federal state & federal local 2003–2004 39.7% 2.4% 42.1% 57.9% 2004–2005 37.2% 2.3% 39.5% 60.5% 2005–2006 35.6% 2.1% 37.7% 62.3% 2006–2007 34.2% 5.1% 39.3% 60.7% 2007–2008 33.4% 5.4% 38.8% 61.2% 2008–2009 32.3% 5.5% 37.8% 62.2% 2009–2010 30.7% 10.6% 41.3% 58.7% 2010–2011 29.0% 9.1% 38.1% 61.9% 2011–2012 28.6% 5.9% 34.5% 65.5% 2012–2013 27.2% 5.4% 32.6% 67.4% 2013–2014 25.6% 5.9% 31.6% 68.4% 10-year changes 7.1% 10.6% 17.7% 82.3% source: pennsylvania department of education. notes note: the research that formed the basis for this article was funded by the center for rural pennsylvania. the full report, analysis of special education enrollments and funding in pennsylvania rural and urban school districts, published september 2015, can be found at http://www.rural.palegislature.us/documents/reports/special_ed_en roll_and_funding_final.pdf. 1. the taxpayer relief act, special session act 1 of 2006. 2. enrollment data only included 2012–2013. data for 2013–2014 to match fiscal data were requested from the pennsylvania department of education but not received. 3. in the data obtained from penndata this category was named mental retardation. 4. total expenditures data used in the analysis are for instructional programs and are reported in the manual of accounting and financial reporting for pa public schools chart of accounts under three expenditure codes: 1200 special education expenditures, 2140 psychological services, and 2150 speech pathology and audiology services. 5. there are two subaccounts that are used to record the special education subsidies: code 7271 special education funding for school aged pupils, and code 7272 early intervention for students with developmental delays and disabilities. the subsidy for school aged pupils is the primary state funding source for special education for school districts, comprising over 98% of the total amount in 2013–2014. 6. federal idea revenues are reported under 8512 idea part b and 8513 idea section 619 (for education of preschool children with disabilities). for several years districts also received federal funds for disabled children from the american recovery and reinvestment act of 2009 (arra). these funds were coded as 8701 idea part b and 8702 idea section 619. 94 william t. hartman 7. federal idea revenue received as pass-through is reported under local revenues as code 6832 federal idea revenue received as pass-through and code 6833 federal arra-idea revenue received as pass-through. 8. “special education funding commission report,” december 2013, p. 5. 9. act 126 of 2014. references chambers, j., j. shkolnik, and m. perez. 2003. “total expenditures for students with disabilities, 1999–2000: spending variation by disability.” american institutes for research, special education expenditure project, report 5. hartman, william. 2015. analysis of special education enrollments and funding in rural and urban school districts in pennsylvania. harrisburg, pa: center for rural pennsylvania. http://www.rural.palegislature.us/documents/reports/special_ed_enroll_ and_funding_final.pdf (march 8, 2016). pennsylvania association of school administrators and pennsylvania association of school business officials. 2015. “continued cuts: the pasa-pasbo report on school district budgets.” harrisburg, pa. pennsylvania department of education. 2012. manual of accounting and financial reporting for pennsylvania public schools. harrisburg, pa. ———. 2013–2014. school district tuition rates, fiscal year 2013–2014. http://www.educa tion.pa.gov/teachers%20-%20administrators/school%20finances/office%20of%20 comptroller%20operations/pages/school-district-tuition-rates.aspx#.vs8kl-z5ihq (march 8, 2016). ———. 2014a. bureau of special education. data file received upon request: “total enrollment, special education enrollment and % ages by lea, school years 2012–2013, school age only. created july 29, 2014. based on data from the special education data reports.” http://penndata.hbg.psu.edu/bsereports/index.aspx# (march 8, 2016). ———. 2014b. summary of state appropriations. harrisburg, pa. ———. multiple years. charter school funding: how should charter schools bill resident school districts? http://www.education.pa.gov/k-12/charter%20schools/pages/ charter-school-funding.aspx#.vlyg8l-m5-8 (march 8, 2016). ———. multiple years. summary of annual financial report data. http://www.educa tion.pa.gov/teachers%20-%20administrators/school%20finances/finances/pages /default.aspx#.vly157-m5-8 (march 8, 2016). pennsylvania department of revenue. 2007–2008 through 2013–2014. the statistical supplement for the pennsylvania tax compendium. fiscal years. http://www.rev enue.pa.gov/generaltaxinformation/news%20and%20statistics/pages/reports%20 and%20statistics/tax-compendium.aspx#statistical (march 8, 2016). structure bookmarks background methodology key results microsoft word journal commonwealth 2007 final 0307.doc in the commonwealth gerard j. fitzpatrick, editor no one has been more frustrated than i by the lapse of three years since the appearance of the last volume of commonwealth. a paucity of submissions continues to take its toll. nonetheless, the journal has not relaxed its publication standards in an effort to accelerate its publication schedule. indeed, i continue to be impressed by the care taken by our anonymous referees in reviewing manuscripts and by the exacting criteria they apply in evaluating the scholarly merits of submissions. as i have noted before, getting published in commonwealth is not easy; and if that means an occasional hiatus until we get quality articles, so be it. i believe the content of this current volume shows that the wait has been worthwhile. as in the past, our usual contingent of five scholarly articles continues to reflect several subfields of political science: one article on political philosophy, one on international relations, and three on pennsylvania politics or public policy. in addition, this issue of commonwealth marks the debut of our new book review section. thanks go to associate editor tom baldino who proposed the idea and secured the reviews. all the books reviewed in this issue concern pennsylvania government, politics, policy, and history—a focus likely to continue in the future. in our lead article, dr. daniel dileo explores the link between 13th century thomistic political philosophy and contemporary political liberalism. finding that aquinas’ theologically grounded conception of “the good” is more compatible with political pluralism than modern liberals might think, dr. dileo demonstrates that not only do classic political thinkers continue to speak to us from across the centuries, but that their teachings offer valuable insights into current political disputes. his article is particularly relevant to the debate between those who want to see more religion in public life and those advocating strict separation of church and state. perhaps the most contentious issue of george w. bush’s presidency has been the president’s conduct of foreign policy, particularly his “war on terrorism.” nathan r. shrader examines what he sees as a change in mr. bush’s foreign policy rhetoric from “realism” to “liberal internationalism” in an effort to persuade the american public to accept his aggressive exercise of executive power on the world stage. not only does mr. shrader make a valuable contribution to the literature on the xiii “rhetorical presidency,” he also illuminates the realities of modern political marketing techniques in selling controversial public policies. in the first of our three articles on pennsylvania politics, dr. matthew hale studies how the major local television networks in the philadelphia media market, the nation’s fourth largest, covered the 2004 elections. focusing upon the size of the market and the competitiveness of the races within it, he finds that the networks largely ignored local and statewide races in order to focus upon the presidential contest. moreover, while local television coverage emphasized the aspects of the “horse race” more than substantive issues, it did provide valuable information about the local electoral scene that could help voters in casting their ballots. in a sequel to an article published in commonwealth four years ago, dr. jeffrey kraus again portrays philadelphia as having been really two cities with regard to the mayoral election of 2003. in a re-match of their 1999 encounter, democratic incumbent john street, an africanamerican, squared off against sam katz, his white republican rival. while race again was a significant factor in the campaign, dr. kraus finds that partisan loyalty in this overwhelmingly democratic city was the key to converting street’s narrow win in 1999 into a massive re-election victory four years later. shifting the focus from politics in the keystone state to public policy, drs. marsha weinraub, anne b. shlay, and anita t. kochanoff present a wealth of data on the demographic variations among families in the use of early childhood care and education in pennsylvania. regrettably, their findings show that our state has ranked low in the provision of such crucial programs. improving the delivery of these services is imperative, particularly in the wake of the controversial no child left behind law, which bases the allocation of federal education funds upon student performance on standardized tests. before closing, let me note that this is the first issue of commonwealth to be published under the auspices of pennsylvania’s legislative office for research liaison (lorl), the nonpartisan technical research arm of the pennsylvania house of representatives with which the pennsylvania political science association formed a mutually beneficial partnership in 2004. as a result of its association with lorl, commonwealth has widened its focus on pennsylvania government and policy, expanded its distribution network, and reduced its operating costs. we also expect to publish more frequently than we have in recent years. xiv two seasoned members of the support staff of the state legislature deserve special credit and recognition for arranging this new relationship: michael cassidy, executive director of the office of the house democratic caucus chairman and michael king, executive director of lorl. scholars as well as public servants, they not only facilitated the union of commonwealth and lorl but they also have provided invaluable assistance over the years toward the annual meetings of the pennsylvania political science association. thanks to the indefatigable efforts of “the two mikes,” both ppsa and commonwealth have a bright future. xv ó the five-year effect of nafta on pennsylvania: an analysis of export data paul g. kengor grove city college r. c. phinney shenango institute for public policy j this article explores the effect of the north american free trade agreeme11t (nafta) 071 pe11nsylvania si11ce tile agreeme11t's enactment on january 1, 1994, it does so by examining export statistics related to penl1sylvania as a whole as 'well as to se'ueral key regions "withil1 the state, as judged by these export statis­ tics, nafta's impact oll pe1111sylv((1zia has bem q1loite pasiti'",e. at the very least, increases 111 exports from pe1lnsylvania since n afta's enactment have been so strong that critics oj the agreement will be hard-pressed i1111laki11g a case against it, the first question usually asked about the north american free trade agreement (nafta) is, how many american jobs have been lost or gained?1 although we seem to hear more often of nafta costing jobs than creating them, we must be wary of anecdotal evidence, for securing solid information regarding specific job losses or gains in pennsylvania is difficult and perhaps impossible. according to both the pennsylvania department of labbr and industry and the employment and training administration office at the united states department of labor, no group at either the state or federallevel collects and tracks data on job losses (currie 2001; poole 2001).2 this article avoids the debate about nafta and jobs. instead, it ex­ amines the effect of nafta on pennsylvania between 1994 and 1999 in terms of rising exports.3 these five years of fairly consistent trade data reveal nafta's dramatically positive effect on state and regional exports to canada and mexico. most export numbers have jumped sharply. equally significant, export growth has been broadly distributed across a variety of industries, including major manufacturing sectors that some analysts predicted would be hurt by nafta. the impressive overall export growth has not been driven merely by a handful of fortunate in­ dustries; the benefits have been widely shared. despite the clarity of our findings, we encountered several problems in conducting this research. first, the state data4 gathered by the united states department of commerce (doc) dates only to 1993, the year prior to nafta's implementation, as opposed to earlier data that is available on national-level exports.s thus, we were not able to make estimates 27 based on long-term trends. second, while industry data exists at the state levet it is not available at the regional or metropolitan levels. third, because no organization collects state import data, it is not possible to compare imports against exports in order to ascertain whether a state trade deficit or surplus exists. we begin with some background on nafta and a brief description of recent studies of nafta's national and local effects. vve then present the firstfive-year analysis of the impact of nafta on pennsylvania as a wholp. fina]]y, we examine nafta's impact on five particular metro­ politan areas in pennsylvania: erie, harrisburg, philadelphia, pittsburgh, and youngstown.6 background on december 17, 1992, canadian prime minister brian mulroney, mexican president carlos salinas de (;ortari, and us. president george bush signed nafta, marking the end of a process that began on febru­ ary 5, 1991 when the three leaders announced that they would negotiate the trade accord. following approval by the legislatures of each of the three countries, nafta went into effect on january 1, 1994. it created a frpp-tradp arpa in north america that was the largest of its kind in the world, with a combined 1994 gdp of $7.7 trillion and 368 million con­ sumers. nafta seeks to: • eliminate barriers to trade between the three member nations and facilitate the cross-border movement of goods and services • promote conditions of fair competition in the free-trade area; • increase substantially investment opportunities in the territories of the member nations; • provide adequate and effective protection and enforcement of intellectual property rights in each nation's territory; • create effective procedures for the implementation and applica­ tion of the agreement for its joint administration, ;mrl for the resolution of disputes; and • establish a framework for further trilateral, regional, and multi­ lateral cooperation to expand and enhance the benefits of the agreement. nafta eliminates tariffs on most goods originating in canada, mexico, and the united states. the schedule to eliminate tariffs previ­ ously established in the canada u.s. free trade agreement of 1989 was continued as planned so that all trade between canada and the united states is now duty free. for most trade between mexico and the united states and between canada and mexico, the intent of nafta was to eliminate existing customs duties immediately or phase them out in five to 10 years. by 1998, many duties had been ended. on a few 28 table 1 nafta tariff reduction schedule for heinz exports tomexico (percent) product 19605 1988 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 n i 57 sauce >100 20 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 \..0 bbq sallce >100 20 20 13.5 12 10.5 9 7.5 6 4.5 3 1.5 0 ketchup 100 20 20 16 12 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 pickles >100 20 20 16 12 8 4 0 0 0 0 c 0 tomato sauce >100 20 20 13.5 12 10.5 9 7.5 6 4.5 ;) 1.5 0 source: arthur humphrey, national sales manager for mexico, heinz co., april 28, 1997. sensitive items, the agreement will phase out tariffs over 15 years. nafta lllemvero ma y a~ree to a fatster end to tariffs on any goods at anytime. table 1 shows a sample tariff-reduction schedule from an actual u.s. company, heinz of pittsburgh. this schedule, covering multiple products for a single u.s. company, is typical of the rate of tariff reduction experienced by thousands of com­ panies throughout america. among the precedent-setting arrangements in the trade agreement are: the complete liberalization of agricultural goods within 15 years; inclusion of the innovative dispute-settlement procedures of the canada u.s. free trade agreement; trade liberaliza­ tion in services, including financial services, within a framework of clear rules on intellectual property rights; and the removal of all tariffs and quotas on textiles and apparel in north america (espana 1993). many of these arrangements signify progress on issues that eluded gatt for gen­ erations, particularly those concerning textiles and agriculture. as yarbrough and yarbrough (1994) note, such trade-policy breakthroughs provided gatt with helpful insights in dealing with similar issues that have avoided settlement for decades. analyses of the national and local effects of nafta nafta's potential impact at the national level was examined exten­ sively in the years prior to its adoption.7 the united states federal re­ serve bank of chicago estimated that nafta would produce ii output gains" for all lhree naliulls, im.:reatiing u.s. gdpby 0.24%, mexican gdp by 0.11 %, and canadian gdpby an astonishing 3.26% (kouparitsas 1997; weintraub 1997). many studies measuring the actual impact were produced after 1994. a study done by the heritage foundation in 1997 gave nafta an "a" and dubbed it ai/remarkable success" for creating jobs, increasing ex­ ports, and stimulating export-led economic growth. the study noted that u.s. exports to mexico grew by 37% from 1993 to 1996, reaching a record $57 billion (sweeney 1997). as president clinton happily pre­ dicted during his may 1997 trip to mexico, by the end of 1997 the histori­ cally "third world" country would buy more american products than any counlry excepl cauada, tiurpatitiing tiecond-place japan, which has an economy 15 times larger. over the same period, u.s. exports to canada rose by 33%. during nafta's first three years, 39 of the 50 states in­ creased their exports to mexico, and 44 saw a rise between 1995 and 1996 (sweeny 1997). that three-year trend continued throughout the first five years of the trade accord (see table 2). since 1993, u.s. exports to canada have grown by over 50% and those to mexico have nearly doubled.s this increase reflects an added $93 billion in american exports. because of this sig 30 nificant jump, former united states trade representative charlene barshefsky insisted that "there is no economic argument against nafta" (cooper 1997) table 2 u. s. exports to canada and mexico, 1993-1998 (millions of dollars) country 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 canada 100.4 114.4 127.2 134.2 151.8 156.3 mexico 41.6 50.8 46.3 56.8 71.4 79.0 source: u.s. department of commerce. as for jobs, estimates vary widely. the u.s. trade representative said that after its first three years, nafta had created 122,000 american jobs as a result of trade with mexico, plus 189,000 due to trade with canada (barshefsky 1997). on the other hand, a study by a coalition of labor and environmental groups, led by the economic policy institute, contended that nafta had cost the united states. 420,000 jobs (associated press 1997). by mid-1997, the united states department of labor had certified ] 16,516 job losses. yet, a study done by ucla's north american integra­ tion and development center in 1997 found that the united states had experienced a net gain of 11,000 jobs due to nafta, having lost 38,000 to mexican and canadian competition, while gaining 49,000 from increased u.s. exports to those two nations (hinojosa 1996; silver 1996). under­ standably, this study led some analysts to conclude that when it comes to nafta's job impact, the trade agreement is u "wash" (cooper 1997). job losses and gains are difficult to measure. the u.s. trade repre­ sentative argued that u.s. exports to mexico "supports" 2.3 million ameri­ can jobs. the dallas morning news (1999) claimed a gain of 688,000 new american jobs after five years. some nafta supporters point to the creation of 12 million new american jobs and a drop in the overall un­ employment rate from 7.5% to 4.9% since 1994, suggesting that nafta had a role in the general job surge (see lambro 1997). studies projecting nafta's state-level effects were scarce.9 four such studies produced in 1999 assessed nafta's impact on texas, michigan, arizona, and florida. of these, the florida report showed the least posi­ tive impact. the three other studies demonstrated that nafta had a remarkably positive impact on state exports. a study in 2000 of nafta' s 31 effect on wisconsin tound the most impressive results in terms of in~ creased exports. jll the five-year effect of nal'ta on pennsylvania one of the first state-level n afia studies was done by the allegheny institute for public po1icy in 1997. this stlhiy foc'l]sf'c1 on n afta' s thrflfl­ year effect on pennsylvania (kengor 1997).11 it found that pennsylvania's exports to mexico and canada reached record levels following the first full year of nafta's implementation, increasing by 31 oil, and 11%, re­ spectively.12 twenty of the 30 industry classifications for pennsylvania experienced export gains to mexico during nafta's first year, while 26 of 32 saw increases to canada. this led to an extra $616 million in penn­ sylvania exports after just the first year, particularly in capital goods in­ dustries and environmental technology. none of the leading sectors of the state's economy experienced notable drops in exports to either canada or mexico. the agreement reportedly helped pennsylvania companies like heinz, chester environmental, amp., and mine safety appliances. prior to nafta, heinz had no sales in mexico. in 1996, it sold between $3 million and $5 million worth of products there. tables 3 and 4 best convey the effect of nafta. table 3 percentage changes for pennsylvania's exports to selected destinations, 1993-1999 % change % change market 1993-1999 1998-1999 nafta countries 88.9% 13.1% canada 58.9% 1.2% mexico 267.6% 61.8% non-nafta countries 27.9% -4.7% world 48.1% 2.0% source: u.s. department of commerce. as these tables show, pennsylvania's exports to the nafta countries grew from $4.36 billion in 1993 to $8.23 billion in 1999, an 88.9% increase. that was a rate of increase three times higher than the 27.9% rise in ex~ 32 vj vj table 4 pennsylvania's export totals to selected destinations, 1993-1999 market 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 total naffa 4,357.6 4,932.8 5,412.9 5,652.6 6,756.0 7,282.2 8,233.4 canada 3,730.3 4,066.5 4,671.8 4,773.7 5,615.7 5,856.9 5,927.2 mexico 627.3 866.4 741.2 879.0 1,140.2 1,425.2 2,306.2 non-nafta 8,832.0 9,765.7 12,267.3 11,792.9 12,542.4 1 l856.6 1l294.2 total world 13,189.6 14,698.6 17,680.2 17,445.6 19,298.4 19,138.8 19,527.6 source: u.5. department of commerce. ports to non-nafta nations. the 58.9c~;) rise to canada alone was twice as high as that to non-nafta nations. most spectaculal~ the value of exports to mexico more than tripled, from about $627 million in 1993 (the year prior to nafta) to $2.31 billion in 1999. this was a gain of 267.6%, almost 10 times the rate of increase to non-nafta nations over tht> period. the strength of pennsylvania's exports to mexico and canada under nafta was so pronounced that no other two nations did more to pull up pennsylvania's total exports in the post 1993 period. because of the strength of pennsylvania's exports to these two countries, the state man­ aged to increase its exports to the world as a whole by 48.1 %. without the strength of those two foreign markets, pennsylvania would have increased its exports merely by 27.9% from 1993-99. under nafta, the added $3.9 billion in pennsylvania's exports to the naftanations comprises 62% of the $6.3 billion in added state exports to the world as a whole. the numbers for the most recent year available are also positive. from 1998 to 1999, pennsylvania's exports to the naftanations increased by 13.1 %, compared with a 4.7% decrease in exports to non-nafta nations. most responsible for the strength in exports to the nafta nations was a 61.8% increase in state exports to mexico. thanks to the mexican market alone, pennsylvania's exports to the world as a whole barely managed to stay in the plus category, increasing by just 2%. comparing nafta nations with the rest of the world is smart for many reasons. most notably, one cannot argue that the boom in pennsylvania's exports to the nafta countries was simply an outgrowth of the overall good economy during the 1990s. if that were the case, then we would see a similar, perhaps near equal rise in pennsylvania's ex­ ports to all countries during the period. to the contrary, exports to the nafta countries are significantly larger over three times the percent increase in exports to non-nafta countries. we tnust etnphasize that mexico experienced one of the worst reces­ sions in its checkered history in 1995, known as the peso crisis. this recession greatly diminished mexicans' purchasing power, particularly of ~oreign exports. consequently, there was a sharp dip in pennsylvania's exports to mexico that year. yet, even with that, pennsylvania's exports to the country vastly outpaced those to other countries in the post-nafta period. the overall strength of state exports to mexico amid the mexi­ can recession is extraordinary. the much larger growth in pennsylvania's exports to the nafta na­ tions compared with the non-nafta nations is good news for another reason. the nafta nations constitute the state's two largest export markets. indeed, the larger rate of growth might not be so significant if the two nafta nations ranked, sa}~ 10 and 15 in terms of size of export 34 market. instead, they rank 1 and 2. a better stanc.l.ing could not be hoped for. according to doc, 58)40 jobs have been created in pennsylvania as (] result of the nearly $4 billion increase in state exports to mexico and canada under nafta.i.' finally, it is important to note what happened to pennsylvania's ex­ ports to mexico immediately prior to nafta's imp1ementation. since doc did not collect such data then, we must turn to miser, the only group collecting state trade data prior to 1993. according to mtser, pennsylvania's exports to mexico declined precipitously the year before nafta, falling 12(~~.14 yet, a turnaround took place immediately. in the first year of nafta, as table 3 shows, pennsylvania's exports to mexico jumped from $627 million to $866 million a 38% gain. the only ob­ stacle that slowed this stampede of exports (albeit temporarily) was the mexican recession of 1995. miser and doc data also show that pennsylvania's exports to canada and mexico reached record highs in the first year of nafta's implementation. under nafta, canadians and mexicans have spent $38.3 billion on pennsylvania exports. pennsylvania exports by industry what is pennsylvania exporting to canada and mexico? which in­ dustries are enjoying big gains in exports under nafta? there are not merely one or two high-tech industries responsible for the boom in ex­ ports. the export success is broad based, covering the vast majority of pennsylvania's industries. of the 33 industry categories that export to cdhdud, 28 increased exports; and of the 32 that export to mexico, 25 increased exports. in total, 82% of industries increased their exports. table 5 shows pennsylvania's exports to canada within three groups of product categories: manufactures, agricultural and livestock prod­ ucts, and other commodities. table 5 pennsylvania's exports to canada by industry (millions of dollars) product gmup manufactures apparel chemical products electric & electronic equipment fabricated metal products 35 1993 3,516.5 23.0 495.2 318.2 159.2 % change 1999 1993-1999 5,608.3 59.5% 25.2 9.6% 991.5 100.2% 552.4 73.6% 268.9 68.9% % change product group 1993 1999 1993-1999 food products 119.3 187.2 56.9% furniture & fixtures 36.0 28.5 -20.7% industrial machinery & computers. 533.6 854.1 60.1% leather products 10.4 36.4 247.9% lumber & wood products 106.2 129.9 22.3% paper products 84.0 214.4 155.2% primary metals 354.0 645.1 82.2% printing & publishing 120.3 198.7 65.1% refined petroleum products 64.9 85.9 32.5% rubber & plastic products 102.2 178.1 74.2% scientific & measuring instruments 150.4 250.7 66.7% stol1f\ glass & cl~y procillf'ts 21.5.2 2rr2 14.0% textile mill products 27.9 84.5 203.1% tobacco products 0.2 0.8 350.7% transportation equipment 493.7 466.4 -5.5% miscellaneous manufactures 92.7 102.4 10.5% unidentified manufactures 9.9 18.8 91.0% agricultural & livestock products 67.6 76.2 12.8% agricultural products 58.8 68.0 15.7% livestock & livestock products 8.8 8.2 -6.0% other commodities 146.2 242.6 65.9% bituminous coal & lignite 32.6 77.2 137.0% crude petroleum & natural gas 15.4 4.2 -72.6% fish & other marine products 3.4 1.0 -69.9% forestry products 0.6 2.3 276.7% goods hnported & returned unchanged 31.0 55.5 63.4% metallic ores & concentrates 3.6 6.8 86.5% nonmetallic minerals 3.1 3.8 19.8% scrap & waste 42.8 68.0 58.8% special classification provisions 7.7 19.5 151.7% used merchandise 2.9 4.3 47.1% total 3j30.3 5,856.9 58.9% source: u.s. department of commerce. 36 the top exporting industrv to canada is chemical products, whic1l sold nearly $1 billion in goods above the border in 1999 alone more than a 100% increase under nafta. the second largest exportel~ indus­ trial machinery and computers, sold over $854 million, a 60.1 % increase. the third and fourth largest exporters, primary metals and electric and electronic equipment saw rises of 82.2tytl and 73.6%, respectively. among the top five exporting industries to canada, only transportation equip­ ment saw a decline, a small one of s.5%. the sixth largest export indus­ try, fabricated metal products, was up 69% under nafta. its rate of increase, and that for primary metals, exceeds the overall rate of increase for pennsylvania's exports to canada generally. combined, these two industries sold $914 million in exports to canada in 1999, up from $s13 million the year before nafta's enactment. table 6 displays pennsylvania's exports to mexico by industry. more than 99% of thp %2.:1 hillinn "vorth of pennsylvania products exported and sold to mexico in 1999 were manufactured goods. similarly, almost 96% of pennsylvania products exported and sold to canada were manu­ factures. these figures undercut the argument that opening free trade through agreements like nafta is undermining america's manufactur­ ing base. there may indeed be ways in which our manufacturing base is adversely affected by :\jab'ta, but it is not in terms of total exports to canada and mexico. table 6 pennsylvania's exports to mexico by industry (millions of dollars) % change product group 1993 1999 1993-1999 ma11ufactures 621.3 2,290.0 268.6% apparel 5.9 22.0 27s.3% chemical products 15s.1 361.5 133.1% electric & electronic equipment 112.4 879.2 682.1% fabricated metal products 14.8 97.6 558.6% food products s1.4 34.4 -33.1% leather products 0.5 so.3 9,128.9% furniture & fixtures 1.9 1.8 -2.2% industrial machinery & computers 97.5 240.2 146.4% lumber & wood products 4.8 2.8 -41.2% p;::jpf'l" products 10.4 27.1 159.4% 37 % change product group 1993 1999 1993-1999 primary metals 55.8 153.5 175.3% printing & publishing 1.1 8.8 669.2% refined petroleum products 1.2 3.5 190.1% rubber & plastic products 13.4 121.9 811.8% scientific & measuring instruments 29.5 79.4 169.2% stone, glass & clay products 17.2 53.3 210.5% tobacco products 0 1.5 n/a textile mill products 26.4 45.4 72.0% transportation equipment 14.1 77.5 449.0% miscellaneous manufactures 6.3 6.1 -3.1% unidentified manufactures 1.6 22.1 1,320.5% agricultural & livestock products 3.2 5.1 60.1% agricultural products 0.5 4.0 741.2% livestock & livestock products 2.7 1.2 -57.0% other commodities 2.8 1.2 289.3% forestry products * 0.2 1,307.4% fish & other marine products * * 1.5% metallic ores & concentrates 0.1 1.3 893.8% bituminous coal & lignite 0.5 * -96.4% crude petroleum & natural gas 0 * n/a nonmetallic minerals 0.9 2.7 196.1% scrap & waste 0.2 3.8 2,077.7% used merchandise 1.0 0.7 -29.9% special classification provisi ons 0.1 2.3 1,996.6% total 627.3 2,306.2 267.6% . * less than $100,000 source: u.s. department of commerce. table 6 reveals particularly good news about pennsylvania's manu­ facturing exports. the state's top five exporting industries to mexico are all in manufacturing. these are: electric and electronic equipment ($879.2 million), chemical products ($361.5 million), industrial machinery and computers ($240.2 million), primary metals ($153.5 million), and rubber 38 and plastic products (5121.9 million). all five of these industries sa,v triple digit increases in their exports to mexico under nafta. among them, the highest increase was in rubber and plastic products, which saw a phenomenal 812% risc, followed by u 682% increase by electronic and eiectrical equipment. the news also seems favorable for the steel and metals industry. the export category that includes the steel industry primary metals in­ creased more than 175% under nafta after declining the year before nafta took effect. 15 exports in fabricated metal products rose almost 559%. prior to nafta, fabricated metal products was the ninth largest exporting industry to mexico. it is now sixth. combined, the two indus­ tries sold more than $251 million in exports to mexico in 1999 alone. under nafta, the two have sold nearly half a billion dollars in exports to mexico. big increases also occurred in printing and publishing (669%) and transportation equipment (449%). leather products, which hod the third largest rate of increase among state exports to canada, grew an amazing 9,129'10. declines in manufacturing exports were small. the farm sector offered a mixed picture with a 741 % jump in agricul­ tural products compared with a 57% drop in livestock and livestock prod­ ucts. metallic ores and concentrates rose almost 894% compared with a decrease of more than 96% for bituminous coal and lignite. the drop for coal is not a surprise, considering that mexicans mine their own coal in a very strong domestic coal-mining industry. pennsylvania companies like mine safety appliances (msa) have found significant success exporting mine-safety equipment to the mexican coal industry. msa has been ex­ porting to mexico for five decades. mexico is an annual multi million dollar market to the pittsburgh company. dom palmieri, the interna­ tional sales representative for msa, says the company sells "the com­ plete line" of its products in mexico, "in excess of 4,500 items/' from mining-cap lamps to devices for detecting methane gas vapors. these sales to mexico, he notes, "translate into a lot of local jobs here in pitts­ burgh." nafta has helped msa, says palmieri, "mainly in reduced tariffs. this allows companies like msa to compete favorably in a global market. it does so because it saves us money."lb the five-year effect of nafta on western pennsylvania this section examines more closely exports to canada and mexico from the three major metropolitan areas affecting western pennsylvania: erie, pittsburgh, and youngstown. like those for pennsylvania as a whole, the results of nafta for exports from western pennsylvania have been overwhelmingly positive, particularly when measured relative to non­ nafta nations. 39 table 7 erie, pa export totals to selected destinations, 1993-1999 (millions of dollars) % change market 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1993-1999 nafta countries 195.2 174.4 304.5 175.0 386.4 452.4 275.9 41.3% canada 182.1 166.3 298.4 161.9 380.7 428.0 203.8 11.9% mexico 13.1 8.1 6.1 13.1 5.6 24.4 72.1 448.6% non-nafta countries 116.4 111.0 186.3 146.9 211.8 168.8 260.4 123.8% world 311.6 285.4 490.8 321.9 598.2 621.2 536.3 72.1 % source: u.s. department of commerce. table 7 shows that in 1999 pittsburgh ranked 36 in total dollar value among the largest exporting metropolitan areas in the united states, while erie placed 123 and youngstown 181. pittsburgh exported $3.9 billion in products that year, erie exported $536 million, and youngstown exported nearly $240 million. the most telling evidence revealing nafta's effect on the three metropolitan areas emerges when their exports to the nafta nations are compared against those to the non-nafta nations. addi­ tional insights are gained when viewing the export data of the two nafta nations individually and against their exports to non-nafta nations and to the world as a whole. tables 7-9 provide this data. as with pennsylvania as a whole, in all three metropolitan areas the rate of increase for exports to mexico far exceeds the rise to non-nafta nations. for erie, the rate of increase to mexico was almost 449% under naeta, about four times higher than the roughly 124% rise to non­ nafta nations. for pittsburgh, the rate to mexko was 121 %, 40 times higher than the 3.1 % rise to no~-nafta nations. the results were just as dramatic for youngstown where exports to mexico jumped 105% com­ pared with a decline of almost 12% to non-naftanations. as in the case of pennsylvania from 1998-99, youngstown's exports to ivlexico under nafta have been so overwhelmingly strong that they helped to pull overall exports out of whot would have been q decline from 1993-99. 40 table 8 pittsburgh, pa export totals to selected destinations, 1993-1999 (millions of dollars) % change market 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1993-1999 nafta countries 922.0 955.1 1,010.3 1,170.4 1,564.1 1,717.1 1,808.0 96.1% canada 741.9 731.0 823.6 948.5 122.2 135.6 1,410.5 90.1% mexico 180.1 224.1 186.7 221.9 341.6 360.9 397.5 120.7% non~narta countries 2067.2 2195.5 2971.8 2763.2 2,788.1 2362.1 2132.3 3.1 % vvorld 2c)r9.7 31 soh 39r?2 3933.7 435?:i 4079.2 2132.3 31.8% source: u. s. department of commerce table 9 youngstown, oh export totals to selected destinations, 1993-1999 (millions of dollars) % change market 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1993-1999 nafta countries 108.4 105.9 136.1 128.8 188.9 150.6 168.4 55.3% canada 103.5 98.3 115.0 120.9 174.4 134.3 158.4 53.0% mexico 4.8 7.5 21.1 7.9 14.5 16.3 10.0 105.1% non-nafta countries 80.8 79.4 89.8 95.1 134.1 145.9 71.4 -11.7% world 189.2 185.3 225.9 223.9 323.0 296.6 239.8 26.7% source: u. s. department of commerce 41 for all the metropolitan areas but erie, exports to canada also out­ paced exports to non-naf'la nations by notable margins. pittsburgh's exports to canada increased 90%, almost doubling from nearly $742 mil­ lion in 1993 to $1.41 billion in 1999. this was nearly 30 times the rate of pittsburgh's 3.1 % increase to non-nafta nations over the same period, also impressive, youngstown increased exports to canada by 53% since nafta was implemented. the results for erie are more complicated. erie's exports to canada in 1999 were half of what they were in 1998. erie has been consistently inconsistent in its exports to canada since nafta, declining three times and rising three times. this likely reflects the export-production pattern of one or two companies or industries in the erie area. for pittsburgh, the 96.1 % rate of increase in exports to the nafta nations outdid the 3.1 % rise to non-nafta nations by a ratio of 31 to 1. youngstown was likewise impressive, seeing exports to the nafta na­ tions grow 55.3% compared with a 12% drop in exports to non-nafta countries. only for erie was the rise in exports to non-nafta nations (123.8%) higher than the increase to nafta nations (41.3%). the erie case is attributable not to the mexican market, to which the city's exports boomed by 449%, but instead to a surprising collapse in exports to the canadian market from 1998 to 1999. indeed, had this article covered only 1993 to 1998, when erie's exports to canada were much stronger, the rate of increase for erie's exports to the nafta nations would have been double what it was to the non-nafta nations. of the three cities, pittsburgh and youngstown would have to be judg'ed stunning export successes under nafta, at least in terms of their export base. in total, erie has gained $80.7 million in exports to mexico and canada under nafta, pittsburgh has gained some $886 million, and youngstown has gained nearly $60 million. altogether, the three cities have seen a rise of $1.03 billion in exports to the two nafta na­ tions since the trade agreement was implemented. remarkably, this $1.03 billion in added exports to the nafta nations accounts for 84% of the $1.23 billion in overall exports to all countries. in other words, the increase in exports to the nafta nations drove overall exports for the three cities combined. just two of the world's more than 170 nations canada and mexico accounted for 84% of the overall growth in exports from erie, pittsburgh, and youngstown since nafta started. under nafta, canada and mexico have become by far the two most attractive foreign markets to western pennsylvania. according to doc estimates, approximately 15,000 jobs have been created in these met­ ropolitan areas as a result of thls added $1 billion in exports under nafta. the data also underscore the prominence of the canadian and mexi­ can markets to the three metropolitan areas. table 10 shows that canada 42 is the top export market tor all three cities. for pittsburgh, mexico is now the second largest, buying over twice as many products in 1999 as did the third largest market, germany. for erie, mexico places third, behind sec­ ond place brazil and well ahead of gern1.any, a distanl [qurlh place. mexi­ cans buy over five times more erie products than do germans. for young­ stown, mexico places third, behind the second place united kingdom. table 10 top trade partners for selected cities, 1999 (millions of dollars) major markets of: erie pittsburgh youngstown 1. canada (203.8) 1. canada (1,410.5) 1. canada (158.4) 2. brazil (108.6) 2. mexico (397.5) 2. u. k. (17.3) 3. mexico (72.1) 3. germany (183.4) 3. mexico (10.0) 4. germany (13.6) 4. u. k. (177.7) 4. france (9.8) 5. australia (13.3) 5. netherlands (132.7) 5. taiwan (5.3) c. k. = united kingdom 5011r('p: lts dppclrtmpnt of commercp table 10 reveals the crucial importance of mexico and canada, and thus nafta, to these three major metropolitan areas in western penn­ sylvania. erie sold almost $204 million in products to canada in 1999 and more than $72 million to mexico. youngstown exported over $158 million to canada and $10 million to mexico. pittsburgh exported $1.4 billion to canada and $397.5 million to mexico. altogether, canadians purchased $1.76 billion in products in 1999 from producers in erie, young­ stown, and pittsburgh. mexicans purchased $479 million. that totals $2.2 billion in regional exports to canada and mexico in 1999 alone. in all threp ('asps, ('cln;:](1;:1 w;:is thp singlp lclrgest pxport market, while mexico was one of the top two or three largest markets. this further amplifies the significance of the rates of increase in exports to canada and mexico relative to the non-nafta nations. the five-year effect of nafta on the harrisburg metropolitan area harrisburg was among the nation's top 100 exporting cities in 1999, ranking 97 with $938 million in total exports. tables 11 and 12 compare harrisburg's exports with the nafta and non-nafta nations between 1993 and 1999 and between 1998 and 1999. 43 table 11 harrisburg, pa export totals to selected destinations, 1993-1999 (millions of dollars) market 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 nafta countries 227.3 264.8 274.5 387.6 445.9 474.4 542.6 canada 148.0 164.9 164.2 229.8 264.6 292.8 311.2 mexico 79.3 99.9 110.4 157.7 176.3 181.6 231.4 non-nafta countries 111.8 270.2 326.4 387.9 518.6 478.5 396.1 world 339.2 535.0 601.0 775.5 964.4 952.9 938.7 source: u.s. department of commerce. table 12 harrisburg, pa export totals to selected destinations (millions of dollars) market 1993-1999 1998-1999 $ change % change $ change % change nafta countries 315.3 138.7% 68.2 14.4% canada 163.2 110.2% 18.4 6.3% mexico 152.1 191.8% 49.8 27.5% non-nafta countries 284.3 254.2% -82.4 -17.2% world 599.6 176.8% -14.2 -1.5% source: u.s. department of commerce. of the five metropolitan areas examined in this article, only harris­ burg exported less to the nafta nations than to the non-nafta na­ tions. this does not necessarily reflect poorly on nafta. under nafta, harrisburg's exports to mexico increased by almost 192%, compared with a 254% gain to the rest of the world. its exports to the two nafta na­ tions combined increased almost 139%. while exports to the nafta nations are notably lower than those to the non-nafta nations, they are 44 still quite high. indeed, of the five metropolitan areas, harrisburg is prob­ ably the most impressive exporter generally, for it did well across the board. in fact, of the five metropolitan areas, only harrisburg saw triple­ digit increases in its exports to canada, mexico, the two nafta nations combined, and the non-nafta nations. with such high increases to the nafta nations, it is difficult to call harrisburg a nafta failure, or to assert that nafta has been bad for harrisburg. cities, regions, and states throughout the country would be thrilled to experience both a 110% increase in exports to canada and a ] 92% rise to mexico, as harrisburg has done under nafta. more re­ cently, harrisburg has performed better with the nafta nations than with the non-nafta nations in terms of exports. in the most recent year for which data is available, harrisburg's exports to the nafta nations increased by 14.4%, compared with a drop of 17.2% to the non-nafta nations, a drop that is among the largest declines for the five metropoli­ tan areas under review. better yet for nafta, harrisburg's exports to mexico in that year jumped by 27.5%, far surpassing the 17.2% decline in its exports to the non-nafta nations. by selling more than $542 million in products and services to canada and mexico in 1998-1999, harrisburg avoided a devastating decline in overall exports. the five-year effect of nafta on the philadelphia metropolitan area with roughly $9.3 billion in exports in 1999, philadelphia ranked 13 among the nation'slargest exporting cities. it is by far pennsylvania's top exporting city. as tables 13 and 14 show, the nafta export num­ bers for philadelphia are simply superb. since nafta was implemented, philadelphia's exports to nafta countries have increased 129%, nearly four times the 33.4% rise to the non-nafta countries. the rise in exports to canada was almost 79%, more than twice as high as the increase to the non-nafta countries. most astounding was the almost 376% rise in exports to mexico under nafta, more than 11 times the increase to non-nafta countries. impressive as these numbers are, in just the most recent year philadelphia's exports to the nafta countries shot up 39%, compared with a drop of 1.6% to the non-nafta countries. the rise in exports to mexico alone that year was astonishing jumping almost 156%, or a rate of increase over 150 times higher than the increase to the non-nafta countries. this performance is among the strongest of all major cities and metropolitan areas in the united states, particularly given the sheer volume of exports sent from philadelphia to the nafta countries. the rise in exports to mexico in the most recent year was so strong that the mexican market alone pulled philadelphia's overall exports to the world out of an otherwise devastating decline. philadelphia now 4" table 13 philadelphia, pa export totals to selected destinations, 1993-1999 (millions of dollars) market 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 nafta countries 1,500.3 1,771.5 1,942.2 1,994.3 2,171.4 2,473.3 3,436.9 canada 1,245.6 1,426.5 1,641.4 1,690.9 1,845.7 1,999.3 2,225.4 mexico 254.7 345.0 300.8 303.3 325.7 474.0 1,211.5 non-nafta countries 4,368.8 4,774.3 5,946.6 5,733.7 5,856.3 5,923.9 5,830.2 world 5,869.1 6,545.8 7,896.9 7,727.9 8,027.8 8,397.2 9,267.1 source: u.s. department of commerce. table 14 philadelphia, pa export totals to selected destinations (millions of dollars) market . 1993~1999 $ change % change naftacountries 1,936.6 129.1% canada mexico 979.8 956.8 non-nafta countries 1,461.4 world 3,398.0 78.7% 375.7% 33.4% 57.9% 1998-1999 $ change % change 963.6 39.0% 226.1 737.5 -93.7 8,699.9 11.3% 155.6% -1.6% 10.4% source: u.s. department of commerce. sells more than $3.4 billion in goods to canada and mexico annually. that figure has more than doubled since nafta began. arguably, canada and mexico are now philadelphia's two most successful and important export markets. according to the doc, the added $1.93 bil­ lion in philadelphia exports to the nafta nations since 1993 accounts for 29,040 new jobs in the area. 46 conclusion this article has examined the five-year effect of nafta on pennsyl­ vania. the trade accord has had a number of consequences. unfortu­ nately, most of these, induding estimates on job gains or 10sses, are diffi­ cult to sustain adequately with data. one area that can be measured definitively, howevel~ is nafta's effect on export levels. it has been highly positive. because of nafta, pennsylvania has been among the most successful states in terms of increased exports. across the vast majority of industries, nafta has had a very posi­ tive impact on exports from pennsylvania, state-wide as well as region­ ally. better export data is difficult to imagine, especially regarding sky­ rocketing exports to mexico, which have far outpaced exports to the rest of the world. in a number of cases, exports to mexico have been so over­ whelmingly strong that they pulled overall exports out of what would have been a decline without the mexican market. in terms of export levels, particularly for regions like the philadelphia metropolitan area, the data could not be better in making the case for nafta. to be sure, total exports constitute only a portion of overall state gdp, which means that pennsylvania will not rise or fall based on nafta exportsy nonetheless, the revenue from these exports is considerable, particularly for people employed in those industries, which includes a large number of pennsylvanians. so, while we should not overstate nafta's impact, we likewise should not understate it. nafta sup­ porters can find comfort in these highly positive export gains for penn­ sylvania. notes 1. in any discussion of trade and its impact, a kaleidoscope of related issues is often raised. for discussion of what a state government mlght do to promote trade in terms of trade missions, overseas trips, and other forms of economic development, see kengor (1996). for discussion of the advantages and disad­ vantages of free trade and the conditions under which political coali.tions form either in favor of or in opposition to it! see bhagwati (1969), milner (1988)! and yarbrough and yarbrough (1994). 2. union officials often ask state and federal officials for the number of workers certified for nafta trade adjustment assistance (nafta-taa). some of these officials inaccurately report the totals as job losses caused by nafta. asked how many of those certified for nafta-taa in pennsylvania actually lost their jobs, john currie of the pennsylvania department of labor and industry stated unequivo­ cally: "nobody knows. and anyone who says they know cannot prove it" (currie 2001). onc pennsylvania soutce said he would be surprised if 10,000 of the 46,000 workers certified for nafta-taa in pennsy lvania actually lost jobs due to nafta. at the same time, he cautioned that no one knows, including himself. 47 3. throughout this article .. we cite estimates by the united states department of conmlerce (doc) of job gains generated :in pennsylvania by rising exports under nafta. although these estimates are rellable, they tell us nothing about the types of jobs that have been gained, their quality, or how much they pay. with jndustry data, too, we could only speculate. 4. the doc data comes from the united states census bureau, which issues two principal data sets with export statistics for states and regions: the exporter location 1::ierie::; (el), anu the origin of movement ::;erie::; (om). the el ::;erie::; it; referred to in this document as the doc data. the om series is known as miser data (see next note). the el series is newer and allocates exports according to the physkallocation of exporters by tracing export 5 to the point of sale. the el series is based on the exact data recorded on u.s. export declarations. a problem with such data is that the exporter of record is not always the producer of the good sold but may be a wholesaler, retailer, broker, or other intermediary even a foreign buyer. the exporter of record might also be the administrative branch office of the manufacturer and located in a different state from the branch that actually produced the goods. the el series therefore may at times be more of an indicator of marketing activity than export production even though about three-quarters of merchandise exports are produced by manufacturers who do their own exporting. consider two companies: lasermedics (texas) and md international (florida). lasermedics exports medical equipment to latin america via md international. a lasermedics product sold abroad but exported via md international would be credited as a "florida export" by el (doc) data. that same product would be considered a "texas export" by the om (miser) data. 5. there is state export data from the university of massachusetts institute for social and economic research (miser) dating back to the 19805. as noted, however, that data, is collected differently from doc data, measuring ditterent items with different results. we relied on doc data because of its lower cost and greater availability. 6. youngstown is located in ohio, just over pennsylvania's western border. we include it because many western pennsylvanians work there and because it has an important impact o~ the economy o{that part of the state. the only other region in western pennsylvania for which doc data exists is the sharon metro­ politan area. unfortunately, because sharon is a sman exporter, doc does not track its total exports on a country-by-country basis, but instead records only its total exports. nonetheless, it is probably telling tho.t sharon's overall exports under nafta have been even better than those of the other three western re~ gions and pennsylvania as a whole. 7. for an overview of many of these studies, see unite>d statps lntprnationrll trade commission (1992). among the more well-known studies, see hinojosa and robinson (1991)1 hufbauer and schott (1992), marwick (1991)1 mccleery and reynolds (1991), united states department of labor (1990), and united states international trade commission (1991). 8. a common criticism is that nafta has led to higher trade deficits with canada and mexico. in fact, the united states had trade deficits with both na~ tions on and off for many years prior to nafta. an american trade deficit with mexico in 1990, for example, became a surplus between 1991 and 1994. a deficit returned during the mexican recession of 1995 and continued throughout 1996 48 before becoming'" surplus in 1997. in anv case, it i:; debatable whether 8 trade deficit is economically unhealthy for a nation. 9. see systems synthesis project (1994,112-13), and trade partnership (1992). 10. the texas study "\-vas done bv the texas public policy foundation, the \1ichigan study was d~ne by the ma~kinac center, the arizol~a study was done by the goldwater institute, and the florida study was done by the james madi­ son institute. paul kengor was the author or co-author of all these studies. 11. also see kengor (1996). 12. the state's first-year increase in exports to mexico made this nation the second largest market for pennsylvania's products. pennsylvania's exports to mexico in 1994 reached $854 million, which surpassed the state's exports to ja­ pan and the united kingdom. 13. doc bases its estimate on its assessment that 15,000 jobs are created for every new $1 billion in exports. 14. miser recorded $742 million in pennsylvania exports to mexico in 1992, 5653 million in 1993, and $854 million in 1994. 15. see miser data for 1992 and 1993. 16. for an extended treatment of the case of msa and other pennsylvania companies, see kengor (1996). 17. pennsylvania's gdp is roughly $400 billion. state exports to mexico and canada in 1999 totaled $8.23 billion, or about 2% of state cdp. references associated press. 1997. "critics say nafta has cost 420,000 jobs." associated press, june 27. barshefsky, charlene. 1997. "yes, nafta is good for america." pittsburgh post­ gazette, june 22, b4. bhagwati, jagdish. 1969. trade, tariffs, and growth. boston: m.lt. press. cooper, helene. 1997. "experts' view of nafta' s economic impact: it's a wash." wall street journal, june 17, a20. currie, john. 2001. interview by author. september 24. dallas morning news. 1999. "nafta at five." dallas morning ne'ws, january 4. espana, juan r. 1993 "impact of the north american free trade agreement (nafta) on u.s.-mexican trade and investment flows." business econom­ ics (july): 41-47. hinujusa, raul, aild s. robinson. 1991. "alternative scenarios of u.s.-mexico integration: a computational general-equilibrium approach." working paper 609. university of california, department of agricultural and re­ source economics. ~ and goetz wolff. 1996. north american integratioll three years after nafta: the national and regional labor market impacts. ucla north american inte­ gration and development center, december. hufbauer, g.c., and j.j. schott. 1992. "north american free trade: issues and recommendations." washington, d.c.: institute for international economics. kengor, paul. 1996. "nafta: its early fffpct on ppnmylvcmia and the pitts­ burgh region." economic developmel1t commentary 20 (3): 24-30. 1997. "the three-year effect of nafta on pennsylvania and the pitts­ burgh region" allegheny in,,titjltp fm pnhlir policy, report #97-08. 49 kouparitsas, michael a. 1997. "a dynamic macroeconomic analysis of nafta." economic perspecti'ues, federal reserve bank of chicago. lambro, donald. 1997. "nafta success saga beyond expectations," washing­ toll times, june 2. marwick, kpmg peat. 1991. /i analysis of economic effects of a free trade agree­ ment between the united states and mexico." washington, d.c: u.s. coun­ cil of the mexico-u.s. business committee. ~ccleery, rk, and cw. reynolds. 1991. "a study of the impact of a u.s.­ mexico free trade agreement on medium-term employment, wages, and production in the united states." stanford university. milner, helen. 1988. resisting protectionism. princeton, n.j.: princeton univer­ sity press. poole, linda. 2001. interview by author. september 24. silver, sara. 1996. "job impact of nafta negligible, study says." associated ljress, uecember 2u. sweeney, john. 1997. "nafta's three-year report card: an 'a' for north america's economy." the heritage foundation, backgrounder 1117, may 16. systems synthesis project. 1994. "nafta: a regional impact study for south­ western pennsylvania." carnegie mellon university, h.j. heinz school of public policy and management. tlade padnelship. 1992. "the ililpi:ld uf the nurth american free trade agree­ ment on pennsylvania." washington, d.c: u.s. council of the mexico-:u.s. business committee. united states department of labor. 1990. "industrial effects of a free trade agreement between mexico and the usa." washington, d.c. united states international trade commission. 1992. "economy-wide model­ ing of the economic effects of a fta with mexico and a nafta with canada and mexico." washington, d.c: usitc publication 2516. __ . 1991. memorandum, march 8. washington, d.c weintraub, sydney. 1997. "nafta at three: a progress report." significant issues series, vol. xix, no. 1. washington, d.c: center for strategic and international studies. yarbrough, beth v., and robert m. yarbrough. 1994. the world economy: trade and finance. orlando, fl: harcourt brace college publishers. 50 microsoft word journal commonwealth 2007 final 0307.doc 103 demographic and family differences in use of early childhood care and education in pennsylvania: a 2002 baseline marsha weinraub temple university anne b. shlay temple university anita t. kochanoff arizona state university studies show that pennsylvania ranks below the national average in the percentage of preschool children enrolled in centerbased programs. this is important because center-based care has been shown to better prepare children for entry into school. in 2002, we examined demographic and family influences in the use of early childhood care and education (ecce) in a statewide random sample of 1005 pennsylvania families with children under 6 years of age, providing a baseline of ecce in pennsylvania during a time when the state offered no public funding specifically for preschool. our findings suggest that pennsylvania children, particularly those from less educated and lower income families, may not have been well prepared to enter school in 2002. policy changes since 2002 are described, and the likelihood of these policies to better prepare pennsylvania’s children to enter school ready to learn are considered. in the era of the no child left behind act of 2001, when students’ scores on standardized tests are used to determine schools’ eligibility for federal support, it has become critical that children enter school prepared to learn. yet, many children are not prepared to learn when they arrive at school. nationally representative samples indicate that 20% of all kindergartners lag behind in cognitive skills and 31% of all kindergartners are behind in social and emotional development (coley 2002; lee and burkham 2002). 104 many of the children lagging behind are from poor and minority families (wertheimer, croan, moore, and hair 2003). while no specific data are available on the school readiness of pennsylvania children, there is reason to believe that they confront similar difficulties. research shows that the best means for addressing the problem of differential preparedness is center-based educational intervention programs (lee, brooks-gunn, schnur, and liaw 1990; ramey and campbell 1992; ramey and campbell 2002; ramey and ramey 1992). even common child care/preschool experiences have been shown to help prepare children for school (national research council 2001). in many cases, the effects of center-based care on school readiness measures are more important than the effects of child characteristics such as age and temperament (clarke-stewart and fein 1983) and family demographics such as ethnicity or family income (nichd eccrn and duncan 2003). more specifically, children who have experienced center care or preschool demonstrate better verbal ability and academic skills, and in some cases, social skills, compared with children who experience child care with home-based providers, sitters, or their parents (clarkestewart 1991; magnuson, meyers, ruhm, and waldfogel 2004; nichd eccrn 2004). these are the skills that contribute to children’s ability to begin school ready to learn. how prepared are pennsylvania children to begin school ready to learn? in pennsylvania, there are no public data available for school readiness per se, but the extent of center-based care or preschool use provides a barometer for the extent of school readiness among pennsylvania’s young children. kids count census data show that in 2002, pennsylvania had 251,000 children between the ages of 3 and 5 enrolled in nursery school, preschool, or kindergarten; in 2004, there were 252,000 enrolled. in 2004, this was 55% of the entire population of children in this age range. the national rate in 2004 was 57%, putting pennsylvania slightly below the national average and well behind new jersey, which had 72% of its children in this age range in nursery school, preschool, or kindergarten in 2004 (kids count census 2005). with only about half the population of pennsylvania children in center care, it is important to examine the factors that predict which children are more likely to be in center care than other types of care. data from the 1999 national household education survey show 105 that among children whose mothers were employed outside the home, children from single parent families and children with more educated mothers were more likely to be enrolled in preschool or center-based education (nhes, pew 2005). one wonders whether the situation in pennsylvania mirrors these national statistics. information on the characteristics of families benefiting most from the use of ecce can be useful to pennsylvania policy makers debating how and to what extent state policy should support the needs of its youngest citizens. in this article, we analyze the influence of family and demographic characteristics on the type and amount of children’s ecce in a random sample of 1005 pennsylvania families. in addition, because the pennsylvania policy debate is currently focusing on providing center-based ecce to preschoolers, we pay particular attention to the use of center care in preschool-aged children. we examine ecce not only for children with employed mothers but for children from all families. understanding state-level patterns of ecce usage is vital to policymakers charged with forming ecce policy and examining the impact of that policy. this study serves as a baseline against which future changes in pennsylvania can be measured. in the following sections, we review what is known about differences in the types of care provided to children, and we examine developmental differences in children’s experiences of these different types of care. types of early childhood care and education children can be prepared for school entrance in a variety of ways. parents can help children prepare for school, but many parents do not have the experience or knowledge to prepare children for literacy, numeracy, or social relations necessary for academic performance. for many children, much learning occurs during some type of nonparental experience. different ecce settings offer distinctly different experiences. children in center-based types of ecce spend more time in structured, adult-directed activities and are more likely to experience planned, curricular-based activities than children in family or home based types of arrangements (kisker, hofferth, phillips, and farquhar 1991). center-based settings tend to provide 106 more space and materials for the larger groups of children than do other settings, but often fewer adults are available in these settings to attend to individual children (huston, chang, and gennetian 2002). by contrast, home-based types of ecce, such as “family care” or “group home care,” provide a familiar home environment in which free play is the most common activity (kisker et al. 1991). although home-based settings often lack the larger variety of toys and activities found in center-based ecce facilities, children in home-based ecce tend to receive more individual attention from adults (clarke-stewart, gruber, and fitzgerald 1994). relative care is a specific type of home-based ecce. “relative care” refers to care provided by grandparents, siblings, or other persons related to the child’s family (huston et al. 2002). children who are cared for by relatives have the benefit of experiencing their family’s culture and values full-time, and many parents feel more comfortable entrusting their children to relatives. however, grandmothers and other relatives are more likely to let children watch television and are less likely to provide them with learning activities, as opposed to caregivers in other ecce types who consider themselves early childhood professionals (kontos, howes, shinn, and galinsky 1995, 1997). for this reason, relative care, often the least expensive nonparental care, may also be the least likely to prepare children for school. national studies have shown that most families use home-based ecce when their children are less than 3 years old (burchinal, ramey, reid, and jaccard 1995; huston et al. 2002) and then transition to center-based arrangements for preschool-aged children (erdwins and buffardi 1994; nichd early child care research network 1997a). developmental differences: infants and toddlers versus preschoolers policy makers and parents both agree that differences are warranted in the use of nonparental child care settings before and after children are 3 years old. before age 3, most ecce is perceived as supporting maternal employment; after age 3, ecce is viewed as preparing children for school. during the infant and toddler periods, many parents and policy makers are concerned that children receive too much nonparental care (chira, 1998). after 3 107 years of age, during the preschool period, more and more parents and educators are eager to have children experience center-based types of learning settings away from their parents to help them develop academic and social skills in preparation for first grade. hence, it is important to examine family and demographic differences in child care experiences as a function of child age. infants and toddlers the largest increase in ecce over the last few decades in the u.s. has been with infants and toddlers, those children 3 years of age or younger. phillips and adams (2001) estimate that 56% of infants younger than 1 year with employed mothers regularly spend time in weekly nonparental care settings. one large nationwide study found that the majority of infants started using ecce regularly before the age of 4 months and on average were enrolled for close to 30 hours per week (nichd eccrn 1997a). the increase in use of ecce since 1975 for infants and toddlers can probably be attributed to increased maternal employment, changing economic conditions, changes in family structure, and new federal welfare regulations (weinraub, hill, and hirsh-pasek 2001). across the country, children under 3 years of age are more likely to be in some type of ecce arrangement if they have single, employed, and less educated mothers, and if they come from african-american families. infants and toddlers are also are more likely to experience ecce when there are fewer siblings in the family and when no other adults live in the home (nichd eccrn 1997b). the rising incidence of nonparental care in infancy has alarmed some researchers and policy makers. one common concern has garnered support from data in the national longitudinal study of youth, which showed that entry into any type of ecce during infancy was related to increased aggressive behavior during the preschool period (bayar and brooks-gunn 1991). also, hofferth (1999) reported elevated behavior problems for preschoolers who had entered an ecce arrangement during the first year of their life, as well as for those who started an ecce arrangement during their second year. still, early entry into nonmaternal child care has not been shown to affect young children’s attachment to their mothers, another common concern, except when low quality or unstable care 108 is also paired with insensitive mothering at home (nichd eccrn 1997c). preschoolers although parents and policy makers are concerned about the rising numbers of infants and toddlers in nonparental care, they are eager to provide more center-based experiences for preschool-aged children, especially for those from poor families. this is because the evidence suggests that quality early care and education can help counteract the deleterious effects of poverty on children’s development (caughy, dipietro, and strobino 1994; nichd ecrn 1997b; phillips 1991). compared to upper-income families, lower-income families are more likely to use relative care or group home care (burchinal and nelson 2000; capizzano and adams 2003; kontos et al. 1997; nichd eccrn 1997a). use of relative care is higher than use of other types of ecce in families when mothers have low levels of education or are from ethnic minority groups (kontos et al. 1995; 1997). children living in rural areas are also more likely to be cared for by relatives than are children in urban areas (lehrer 1983). the quality of home-based settings used by low income families is often much lower than the quality of home-based settings used by higherincome families (coley, li-grining, and chase-lansdale 2003; kisker et al. 1991; kontos 1994; kontos et al. 1997; phillips 1995). not only are center-based settings related to increased cognitive and social outcomes, but also the quality of center-based settings experienced by children in lower and higher income families is more similar (nichd eccrn 1997a). children are more likely to have center based ecce experiences before kindergarten if their mothers are more educated (hofferth and wissorker 1992; nichd eccrn 1997a; zaslow, oldham, moore, and magenheim 1998), if they are not from an ethnic minority family (kontos et al. 1995), if they live in urban areas (atkinson 1994; shoffner 1986), and if they come from smaller families (hofferth, brayfield, deich, and holcomb 1991; nichd eccrn 1997a). several states have sponsored programs to increase the participation of preschool aged children in center-based learning situations. florida, oklahoma, massachusetts, and new york have attempted to design programs that provide quality programming for 109 children (fiene 2005). gormley (2005) has documented that the oklahoma program for universal preschool programming has produced significant increases in preschoolers’ school readiness. although center-based care is desirable for children, especially those from poorer backgrounds, some researchers and educators are concerned about having preschool children in too many hours in center care during the preschool period. investigators from the nichd study of early child care and youth development reported that spending more time in ecce arrangements over the first four years of life, particularly more time in center care, was related to more externalizing problems and conflict in kindergarten (nichd eccrn 2003). thus, while some center-based educational experience in ecce may be desirable for preschool aged children, too many hours of care during this period may be detrimental. pennsylvania’s support for early childhood care and education in the several years prior to 2002, many governors and state legislators worked to bring additional funding to early childhood educational services (general accounting office 1999). hoping to bring pennsylvania into line with most other states, then governor schweiker launched an early childhood initiative in 2001 with the stated goal of “ensuring that pennsylvania’s children are healthy, safe and ready for school.” by executive order in 2002, the governor convened an early care and education task force to prepare a comprehensive menu of evidence-based, cost effective strategies that would lay the foundation for the future of pennsylvania’s early care and education system. several statewide studies were commissioned to aid in the task force’s work, each focusing on different aspects of the existing early care and education services in the state. this article began as one of those commissioned studies. from 2002 to 2003, pennsylvania invested $1.85 billion on 65 programs designed to support children and families. regulations allowed these funds to supplement all types of care: relative, family day care, in-home care, or center care. thirty of pennsylvania’s 501 school districts provided k-4 (kindergarten for 4-year-olds), but the state did not fund any efforts beyond allowing the use of basic 110 education allocations (governor’s task force on early childhood care and education 2002). this article provides a baseline that can help policy makers to compare enrollment in different types of child care before and after 2002, and to examine the extent to which those families most in need—low income and less educated families—are served. the current study this article describes the family and demographic predictors of different types of ecce experiences in infants/toddlers and in preschoolers in pennsylvania in 2002. from telephone surveys, we collected detailed family and demographic information that related to the amount of time young children spent in ecce arrangements, focusing on family and demographic characteristics associated with ecce usage. more specifically, we examined the family and demographic characteristics associated with the use of center-based ecce, including center-based child care, preschool, nursery school, and head start versus home-based ecce–care such as group home care and sitters. enrollment in relative care, a type of home-based ecce, was also examined because evidence suggests that children in relative care may be least likely to be prepared for school (kontos et al. 1995, 1997; nichd eccrn 2001b). family characteristics that we examined included family income, maternal education, ethnicity, family size, single parent status, geographic location (urban vs. rural), and parents’ availability at home. the variable indicating a parent’s availability at home (both mothers and fathers) was based largely on the employment status of the parent or parents living in the home. we wanted to know whether there might be at least one nonworking parent who would be available to care for the child. examining parent availability, rather than simply maternal employment, addressed the increases in many modern families of more neutral gender roles for parents and increasingly shared responsibilities in parenting. therefore, we focused on whether either parent was free from employment obligations such that he or she would be available to be responsible during daytime hours for the care of the child. we consider this an innovative approach to the more traditional investigation of parent employment by past researchers. 111 in these analyses, we compare the incidence and amount of ecce separately for infants and toddlers (0 to 3 years) and for preschool aged children (3 through 5 years) because the effects and desirability of ecce may vary based on the age of the child and because state regulations differ for children at these different ages. method the data for this study were collected in 2002 from a random sample of 1005 pennsylvania households with children under 6 years of age. respondents completed telephone interviews pertaining to their youngest child. table 1: sample characteristics compared to pennsylvania families with children under the age of six years characteristics number of respondents/mean percent of respondents/range percent of pa population child’s age up to 3 years 531 53% 48% 3 to 5 years 474 47% 52% child’s ethnicity african-american 149 15% 13% caucasian 736 73% 79% bi-racial/multi-racial 45 5% 3% latino/hispanic 42 4% 6% other 28 3% 3% refused 5 < 1% n/a respondent’s relationship with child mother 731 73% father 175 17% grandmother 55 6% other 44 4% n/a geographic location large cities 520 52% 52% small cities 360 36% 38% rural areas 118 12% 10% 112 respondent’s education some high school 57 6% high school graduate/ged 311 31% some college/vocational/2year degree 257 26% college graduate 232 23% post graduate 136 11% other 7 < 1% refused 5 < 1% data not available specifically for families with children under the age of 6 years. family income (n=801) m = 53,810 (sd = 39,908) 7,000 – 200,000 under 25,000 184 18% 25,001 to 50,000 285 28% 50,001 to 100,000 256 26% 100,001 + 69 7% refused to answer 81 8% don’t know 123 12% 16% of families are below the poverty level. sampling design and procedures households were selected using a list-assisted random digit dialing (rdd) sampling procedure. through a commercial database maintenance/retrieval system, 23,500 randomly selected telephone numbers throughout pennsylvania were obtained.1 slightly fewer than 16,000 households were identified and 68% completed an eligibility screener (n = 10,760). twelve percent of those contacted were eligible for the survey (n = 1,292) because they had decision-making responsibility for a child under 6 years of age living in their household. seventy-eight percent of those agreed to be interviewed, resulting in 1,005 completed interviews. nonenglish-speaking families were contacted a second time by a spanish-speaking interviewer, resulting in a total of 13 spanishspeaking respondents.2 113 sample description the sampling method yielded a sample that accurately represented pennsylvania’s population according to 2000 census data. table 1 shows the distribution of families across ethnic groups, geographic location, child’s age, family size, and poverty level. the percentage of pennsylvania families below the federal poverty level in our sample (13%) was slightly lower than the percentage in the census (16%). like the state population, the sample included mostly caucasian families (73%) who lived in large cities (52%). within the sample were 531 families with children less than 3 years old and 474 families with children older than 3 but under 6. survey respondents were mostly mothers (73%); the others were either fathers (17%) or grandmothers (6%). because respondents were often the child’s parents, the word “parent” is used in reporting the results. about three-fourths of the sample was composed of two-parent (or two-partner) households with an average family size of four. forty percent of the sample had dual incomes, and the mean family income (before taxes) was $53,810 (sd =39,908). the highest level of education achieved by the greatest number of respondents was a high school degree (31%), with slightly fewer having some years of college (26%) or a four-year college degree (23%). survey measure and procedures trained, reliable interviewers contracted and supervised by the institute for survey research at temple university used computerassisted telephone interviewing techniques (cati) to conduct the interviews from may through july 2002. the telephone interview took approximately 25 minutes, and families were offered $20 for participating. if more than one child younger than 6 lived in the household, one was randomly selected to be the target child for the survey. families reporting any type of ecce arrangement on a regular weekly basis were asked about the type of ecce arrangement, the number of hours their child typically spent in this setting, the hourly cost, and the mode of transportation to the ecce arrangement. if 114 the child was in more than one type of ecce, the survey questions were focused on the one in which the child spent the most time.3 family and demographic variables measures of family composition included the number of siblings and a binary variable of parents’ marital/partner status (single = 1). “partnered” was defined as two adults living in the home; single parents were separated, divorced, or widowed. geographic area was coded as a dichotomous variable (urban or nonurban), with the nonurban category including small cities, suburbs, and rural areas (urban = 1). household location was geocoded based on place definitions (e.g. rural, central city, suburb, etc.) from the u.s. census bureau. respondents reported their level of education: having some high school education, graduated from a high school, having some college or vocational experience, graduated from a four-year college, and having post-graduate education. this variable is referred to as maternal education because almost all the correspondents were mothers. parents’ minority status was measured as a binary variable (minority = 1). minorities included all families that did not identify as white or caucasian (see table 1). parent availability was measured using a dichotomous variable that indicated whether or not there was a nonworking parent in the family available to care for the child on a full time basis (available = 1). our measure of family income was total family income before taxes. definitions of types of early childhood care and education terms used to describe ecce settings were selected for the survey because they are terms that are meaningful to parents in describing their child’s primary, or most used, arrangement. based on the terms the parents used, children were placed into one of four mutually exclusive groups. group 1 was composed of families not using ecce. these children were not cared for by anyone other than their parents on a regular weekly basis, nor were they attending educational programming on a regular basis (n = 315). in group 2 were children cared for by a relative (n = 240) or families in which 115 the mother was a family home care provider (n=44).4 in group 3 were the families using nonrelative, home-based ecce. these children were cared for in their own home by someone other than a relative, or they were cared for in another home with or without other children such as a group or family home child care (n = 123). in group 4 were the children in center-based ecce (n = 283). this group included all arrangements for which parents provided the following terms: child care centers, day care, nursery school, preschool, head start, early head start, pre-kindergarten, and kindergarten.5 results analysis plan the analysis was designed to describe the use of child care more generally and the types of child care used by pennsylvania families and to examine what family and demographic characteristics predict child care use (type of care used and number of hours in care). these analyses are presented separately for each of the two age groups: the infant/toddler group and the preschoolaged group. we employed a logistic regression model to predict child care use because the dependent variable is dichotomous. we estimated three different equations to examine the incidence of differences in the types of ecce use: (1) no use of ecce (parental care only) versus any use of ecce, (2) the use of relative care versus all other types of ecce, and (3) the use of center-based ecce versus all other types of ecce. the independent variables in these analyses were respondents’ education level, family income, number of siblings in the family, ethnicity, geographic area, single parent status, and parent availability (i.e., have a nonworking parent available at home). for the first equation, all subjects were included in the analyses. for the second two equations, only children in some form of ecce were included. thus, we are able to predict use of any type of ecce, and, if any, use of relative care versus all other types of care, and use of center care versus all other types of care. we employed ordinary least squares regression techniques to look at the effects of family characteristics on the number of hours of ecce used. we estimated four different equations to look at the 116 effects of family characteristics on the number of hours per week children spent in any type of ecce, the number of house spent in relative care only, the number of hours spent in any type of homebased care (including relative care), and the number of hours spent in center-based care, respectively. the independent variables were identical to those used in the logistic analysis. relations among family and demographic variables as could be expected, family and demographic variables were highly intercorrelated. these correlations are presented separately for infants/toddlers and preschoolers in tables 2a and 2b. for both age groups, ethnic minority families were more likely than other families to be living in urban settings, headed by a single parent, and earning lower total incomes. for preschoolers, being from an ethnic minority was also associated with having lower maternal education. infants who lived in urban areas were more likely to have single parents, higher family incomes, and more educated mothers than those living in rural settings. parent availability was correlated with a greater number of siblings at both ages and with lower family income and lower maternal education for infants and toddlers. for preschoolers, having a single parent was associated with having fewer siblings. at both ages, single parents earned lower incomes and had less education than other parents. family income and maternal education were highly correlated for both age groups. table 2a: relations among the characteristics of families of infants and toddlers characteristics minority status urban setting parent availability number of sibs. single parent status family income minority status urban setting .291** parent availability .054 -.027 number of siblings .086 .055 .163** single parent status .353** .165** -.092 .044 family income -.251** .120** -.139** -.027 -.358** maternal education -.071 .100* -.104* -.083 -.186** .416** listwise pearson correlations (n = 419); * p < .05, two-tailed; ** p < .01, two-tailed 117 listwise person correlations (n = 374); * p < .05, two-tailed;** p < .01, two-tailed rates of early childhood care and education usage table 3 describes the number of children under the age of 6 who were not in ecce, the number in ecce overall, and the number of children in the three specific types of ecce. many infants (61%) were in some form of ecce, and this care was primarily home-based (relative and home-based care, 45%) rather than center-based (17%). almost a quarter of preschool-aged children (23%) were not in any type of ecce, and only 41% of preschoolers were in center-based ecce. of the families who used some type of ecce, relative care was used more for the younger children (168 out of 327, or 51%), but the number of preschoolaged children in relative care was also relatively high (116 out of 363, or 32%). table 3: use of early care and education (ecce) for total sample and by age type of ecce: no ecce homebased relative care homebased nonrelative ecce centerbased ecce total in any ecce total sample (n = 1005) 315 (32%) 284 (28%) 123 (12%) 283 (28%) 690 (69%) infants & toddlers (n = 531) 204 (38%) 168 (32%) 71 (13%) 88 (17%) 327 (61%) preschool-aged (n = 474) 111 (23%) 116 (24%) 52 (11%) 195 (41%) 363 (76%) note: these figures represent only the ecce arrangement in which the child spent the most time (i.e., “main arrangement”). supplemental types of arrangements are not represented and are excluded from this count. all groups are mutually exclusive. table 2b: relations among the characteristics of families of preschool-age children characteristics minority status urban setting parent availability number of sibs. single parent status family income minority status urban setting .181** parent availability .018 -.020 number of siblings .088 .011 .145** single parent status .278** .017 -.191** -.146** family income -.226** .098 -.066 .076 -.393** maternal education -.191** .099 -.095 .022 -.174** 383** 118 use of early childhood care and education by family and demographic characteristics table 4 shows the percentages of ecce usage based on family and demographic characteristics for each age group. for this table, relative and other types of home-based care are grouped together. table 5 shows the percentages of ecce usage across family and demographic characteristics grouping children into three groups: no ecce, relative care, and all other home-based and center-based types of ecce. table 4: types of early childhood care and education (ecce) used for each age group by family and demographic characteristics (shown are the percentage in each group with n’s in parentheses) characteristics infants and toddlers preschoolers no ecce home -based ecce centerbased ecce no ecce home -based ecce center -based ecce geographic location urban area 38% (102) 39% (106) 23% (62) 25% (62) 30% (76) 45% (112) rural & small cities 39% (100) 51% (130) 10% (26) 23% (51) 40% (89) 37% (82) household income under 25,000 36% (35) 50% (49) 14% (14) 23% (20) 41% (35) 36% (31) household income 25,001 to 50,000 37% (56) 53% (81) 10% (15) 28% (37) 40% (54) 32% (42) 50,001 to 100,000 36% (49) 42% (57) 22% (30) 18% (22) 28% (34) 53% (64) 100,000+ 44% (15) 24% (8) 32% (11) 9% (3) 34% (12) 57% (20) child’s ethnicity minority 29% (44) 44% (67) 27% (41) 14% (17) 42% (49) 44% (51) non-minority 43% (162) 45% (170) 12% (47) 27% (96) 33% (117) 40% (144) family composition two-parent family 45% (185) 41% (172) 14% (58) 26% (94) 33% (123) 41% (150) single-parent family 18% (21) 56% (65) 26% (30) 18% (19) 40% (43) 42% (45) 119 parent availability parent available at home 61% (151) 33% (80) 6% (14) 40% (84) 23% (48) 37% (77) parent not available 19% (52) 55% (155) 26% (74) 11% (29) 45% (117) 44% (116) respondent’s education some high school 42% (15) 47% (17) 11% (4) 33% (7) 38% (8) 29% (6) high school grad/ged 41% (65) 47% (75) 12% (19) 28% (43) 40% (61) 32% (48) some college 31% (43) 54% (73) 15% (20) 20% (24) 41% (50) 39% (47) college graduate 41% (47) 41% (48) 18% (21) 23% (27) 22% (26) 55% (63) post graduate 42% (32) 29% (22) 30% (23) 20% (12) 31% (18) 49% (29) 120 table 5: use of relative care compared to no use of ecce and all other types of ecce by family and demographic characteristics (shown are the percentage in each group with n’s in parentheses) characteristics infants & toddlers preschoolers no ecce relative care nonrelative ecce no ecce relative care nonrelative ecce geographic location urban area 38% (102) 28% (75) 34% (93) 24% (62) 21% (52) 55% (136) rural & small cities 39% (100) 36% (92) 25% (64) 23% (51) 29% (63) 49% (108) family income under 25,000 36% (35) 44% (43) 20% (20) 21% (20) 34% (29) 44% (37) 25,001 to 50,000 37% (56) 38% (57) 26% (39) 28% (37) 33% (44) 39% (52) 50,001 to 100,000 36% (49) 26% (35) 39% (52) 18% (22) 16% (19) 66% (79) 100,000+ 44% (15) 6% (2) 50% (17) 9% (3) 9% (3) 83% (29) child’s ethnicity minority 29% (44) 38% (57) 34% (51) 14% (17) 33% (38) 53% (62) non-minority 43% (162) 29% (111) 28% (106) 27% (96) 22% (78) 52% (183) family composition two-parent family 44% (185) 29% (120) 27% (110) 25% (94) 22% (80) 53% (193) single-parent family 18% (21) 41% (48) 41% (47) 16% (19) 34% (36) 50% (52) parent availability parent available at home 62% (151) 28% (68) 11% (26) 40% (84) 18% (38) 42% (87) parent not available 18% (52) 35% (99) 46% (130) 10% (29) 30% (77) 60% (156) respondent’s education some high school 42% (15) 44% (16) 14% (5) 33% (7) 29% (6) 38% (8) high school grad/ged 41% (65) 37% (59) 22% (35) 28% (43) 33% (50) 39% (59) some college 31% (42) 36% (48) 33% (45) 20% (24) 32% (39) 48% (58) college graduate 41% (47) 27% (31) 33% (38) 22% (25) 11% (13) 67% (76) post graduate 42% (32) 16% (12) 43% (33) 20% (12) 10% (6) 70% (41) 121 child age was related to type of ecce used. infants/toddlers were more likely than preschool-aged children to be cared for by a relative. preschool-aged children were more likely than infants/toddlers to be in ecce in general and in center-based ecce in particular.6 the remainder of the findings focuses on the use of ecce for the two separate age groups. table 6 displays the results of three logistic regression equations conducted for each of the two age groups. b coefficients with standard errors are presented for each of the family and demographic characteristics thought to predict the use of ecce in general (as compared to no ecce), the use of relative care (as compared to other ecce types), and the use of center-based ecce (as compared to all other ecce), respectively. table 6: the effects of family characteristics on child care use and type of child care used: logit analysis infants & toddlers preschoolers characteristics all types of ecce vs. no ecce relative care vs. all other types of care center -based ecce vs. all other types of care all types of ecce vs. no ecce relative care vs. all other types of care center -based ecce vs. all other types of care family income (in $10,000’s) -.005 (.37) -.143* (.55) .096* (.46) .099* (.44) -.163** (.57) .071+ (.40) maternal education -.02 (.11) -.19 (.14) .26+ (.15) .11 (.14) -.42** (.15) .26* (.13) minority status minority = 1 nonminority = 0 .73* (.31) -.02 (.34) .82* (.36) 1.50** (.42) -.003 (.33) -.07 (.30) number of siblings -.10 (.11) -.02 (.13) -.04 (.14) -.27* (.12) -.07 (.13) -.09 (.11) parent availability -2.19** (.25) 1.17** (.33) -.90* (.40) -1.74** (.31) -.34 (.30) .61* (.28) single parent status .96* (.38) -.68+ (.35) .54 (.38) .38 (.44) -.27 (.36) .45 (.34) urban setting -.20 (.25) -.17 (.30) .49 (.33) -.46 (.29) -.47 (.28) .53* (.25) b coefficients are shown with corresponding standard errors in parentheses. * p < .05, two-tailed; ** p < .01, two-tailed; + p < .10, two-tailed note: analyses for relative care and center-based ecce are based on the subset of children who are using some type of early care and education arrangement. 122 infants and toddlers the first column in table 6 illustrates that infants and toddlers were more likely to be in ecce if they were of minority status, if they did not have a parent(s) available at home, and if they were living with a single parent. the analysis for relative care included only children who were in some type of care (i.e., excluded the “not using ecce” group) and is shown in the second column of table 6. for infants and toddlers, coming from a low-income family and having a nonemployed parent available at home made it more likely that they would be in relative care as opposed to other types of ecce. the third column in table 6 presents the results examining the use of center-based ecce for infants and toddlers. during the infancy/toddlerhood period, children from higher income and ethnic minority families were more likely than other children to use center-based ecce over other forms of care. in addition, working parents (i.e., no parent available at home) were more likely to place their infants and toddlers in a center-based ecce arrangement than were families with a parent at home. preschoolers for older children, the right side of table 6 shows the characteristics relating to use of ecce. compared to other preschool-aged children, preschoolers from higher income families, from ethnic minority families, from families with fewer children, and from families with no parent available at home were more likely to be in some form of ecce rather than no ecce. preschool-aged children from families with lower incomes and less educated mothers were more likely than other families to be in relative care. preschoolers with more educated mothers, from families with an available parent at home, and from urban settings were more likely to be in center-based ecce than other types of ecce settings. table 7 presents the number of hours spent in each type of ecce. infants and toddlers who were in nonparental care spent significantly more time in center-based ecce than in home-based 123 ecce (f (1, 323) = 15.0, p< .001). they spent less time in relative care (m = 24.05 hours) compared with other types of ecce (f (1, 323) = 15.45, p < .001). note: these figures represent only the arrangement in which the child spent the most time (i.e., “main arrangement”). supplemental types of arrangements are not represented and are excluded from this count. preschoolers spent more time in some form of home-based ecce compared with center-based ecce (f (1, 359) = 10.58, p < .01). they spent more time in relative care (m = 29.26 hours) than other types of ecce combined (f (1, 359) = 10.35, p < .01). table 8 shows the ordinary least squares (ols) regression analyses that were conducted to examine family and demographic characteristics associated with more time spent in ecce for the subset of children who were using some type of ecce arrangement (n = 558). these analyses examine the effects of family characteristics on time spent in ecce in general, time spent in relative care only, time spent in any type of home-based ecce (including relative care), and time spent in center-based ecce only.7 table 7: mean number of hours per week in each type of early childhood care and education (ecce) arrangement by child’s age infants & toddlers preschoolers type of ecce n m sd range n m sd range homebased ecce (relative care included) 239 25.32 16.71 2-60 168 28.34 16.52 1-60 centerbased ecce 88 32.89 13.22 4-55 195 23.12 13.94 1-50 relative care only 168 24.05 17.50 2-60 116 29.26 17.40 1-60 124 c en te rba se d n= 15 7 -.0 43 -.1 56 * .1 81 ** -.1 56 * -.4 86 ** .1 10 .1 24 16 .1 1* * (7 ,1 49 ) .4 04 a ll h om eba se d1 n= 13 5 .1 20 .0 51 .3 76 ** -.0 62 -.1 12 .2 07 * -.0 64 4. 57 ** (7 ,1 27 ) .1 57 r el at iv e c ar e n= 94 .2 05 .0 38 .3 68 ** -.0 41 -.0 07 .3 41 ** -.0 46 3. 93 ** (7 ,8 6) .1 81 in fa nt s & t od dl er s g en er al u se n= 29 2 .0 3 -.0 6 .2 9* * -.1 3* -.3 1* * .1 5* .0 3 14 .0 9* * (7 ,2 84 ) .2 39 c en te rba se d n= 71 .2 26 -.2 13 .0 74 .0 43 -.4 46 ** .2 64 * -.0 36 3. 29 ** (7 ,6 3) .1 86 a ll h om eba se d1 n= 19 5 -.0 27 -.1 38 .0 89 -.0 70 -.1 94 ** .2 09 ** .0 07 3. 94 ** (7 ,1 87 ) .0 96 r el at iv e c ar e o nl y n= 13 7 -.1 02 -.0 87 .0 10 -.0 60 -.1 20 .2 80 ** .0 69 3. 26 ** (7 ,1 29 ) .1 04 in fa nt s & t od dl er s g en er al e c c e n= 26 6 .0 7 -.1 3* .1 1 -.0 5 -.2 5* * .2 3* * .0 1 6. 25 ** (7 ,2 58 ) .1 22 t ab le 8 : t he e ff ec ts o f f am ily c ha ra ct er is tic s o n h ou rs o f e c c e b y t yp e of c ar e: o rd in ar y l ea st s qu ar es a na ly si s c ha ra ct er is tic s fa m ily in co m e (in $1 0, 00 0’ s) m at er na l e du ca tio n m in or ity s ta tu s n um be r o f s ib lin gs pa re nt a va ila bi lit y si ng le p ar en t s ta tu s u rb an s et tin g f st at is tic (d f) a dj us te d r2 1. a ll ho m e ba se d ec c e in cl ud es h om e ba se d ec c e of a ny ty pe , i nc lu di ng re la tiv e ca re . st an da rd iz ed b et a co ef fic ie nt s a re sh ow e xp ec t w he re o th er w is e no te d. * p < .0 5, tw ota ile d; * * p < .0 1, tw ota ile d 125 infant and toddlers as shown on the left side of table 8, infants and toddlers spent more time in ecce if their mothers had lower levels of education. not having a parent available predicted spending more time in any ecce arrangement and more time in home-based and center-based ecce specifically. infants with single parents spent more time in ecce no matter what the type. infants and toddlers spent more time in center-based settings when there was no parent available at home and if they lived with a single parent. preschoolers as displayed in the four columns on the right side of table 8, preschoolers with less educated mothers spent more time in centerbased ecce settings. minority status was predictive of spending more time in ecce in general, as well as the other three types of ecce specifically. preschoolers without a parent available at home spent more hours in ecce in general and more hours in centerbased ecce. preschoolers with single parents spent more time in all types of ecce, with the exception of center-based ecce. a closer look at the use of center-based ecce shows that preschoolers spent less time in center-based settings if their mothers were more educated, if they were not ethnic minority, if they had more siblings, and if they had a parent available at home. conclusion these data provide a baseline of ecce in pennsylvania in 2002 during a time when the state offered no public funding specifically for preschool. these data show that a substantial number of children under 5 years of age in pennsylvania in 2002 were in some kind of nonparental care for a substantial amount of time each week: 61% of infants and toddlers and 75% of preschoolers were in some type of nonparental care on a regular weekly basis. for infants and toddlers, 51% of the children in care were supervised by relatives. for preschoolers, 32% of the children were in care with relatives. only 41% of pennsylvania preschoolers were in center-based 126 programs, the type of early childhood education that has been associated with school readiness. this article documents geographic and social class differences between those children in center-based preschool programs and those who were not. preschool aged children were more likely to be in center-based care if they were from families in urban areas with educated parents and one nonemployed parent at home with the child on a regular basis. because they were in this type of centerbased care for substantially fewer hours than infants and toddlers, and because many children were children of educated parents with one parent at home on a regular basis, it is likely that the type of care that they experienced may have been mostly part-time care of the type often referred to as nursery school. in contrast, preschoolaged children with less educated and low-income parents were more likely to experience relative care. researchers have shown that pennsylvania home-based settings are of lesser quality than center-based settings such as head start, preschool programs, and child care centers (fiene et al. 2002). these home-based settings are also less likely to prepare children for school (kontos et al. 1995; 1997). so many researchers have shown that center-based center care for preschool-aged children fosters school readiness (lee, brooks-gunn, schnur, and liaw 1990; ramey and campbell 1992; ramey et al. 2002; ramey and ramey 1992; head start report 2005; national research council 2001; nichd eccrn and duncan 2003; clarke-stewart 1991, magnuson, meyers, ruhm, and waldfogel 2004; nichd eccrn 2004) that center-based center care for preschoolers is currently considered “best practice” education. thus, more center-based ecce is considered desirable because it helps prepare youngsters for kindergarten. children from families with more educated mothers and with a parent at home and from families in urban settings were more likely to experience center-based types of ecce considered to prepare children for school readiness, while children from poorer families with less educated mothers were more likely to be in relative care, which is less likely to prepare children for school. these findings replicate those from national reports based on administrative data (nhes 2005) showing that children with more educated and higher income employed mothers were more likely than other children to 127 experience preschool programs aimed at increasing school readiness. according to a 2005 report from the pennsylvania partnerships for children, pennsylvania currently ranks below the national average in the percentage of preschool children enrolled in centerbased programs. in that report, which was based on state administrative records, the percentage of pennsylvania children enrolled in nursery school, preschool, or kindergarten in 2004 was 56%, ranking pennsylvania 30th in the nation. the national average was 57%, with new jersey leading the nation at 74% of children in this age range enrolled in center-based ecce in 2004. although today pennsylvania is still below average nationally, the percentage of the preschool population in child care may nevertheless be higher today than it was in 2002 when only 41% of such children were in center-based programs. in 2004–05, the office of child development was established to oversee commonwealth efforts regarding ecce. a prime goal of this office (dichter 2005; ocd 2005) was to increase the availability and quality of ecce to all children less than 5 years old. specific initiatives in 2004–05 included (1) state investment in preschool through state funds to head start programs, (2) expansion of early childhood services using education accountability block grants to establish new or to expand existing pre-kindergarten services and increase full day kindergarten availability, (3) establishment of early learning standards for pre-kindergarten children across all ecce settings, (4) creation of keystone stars, a quality rating system aiming to improve the quality of ecce programs, (5) introduction of reforms to increase ecce teacher preparation, and (6) increases in the availability of child care subsidies to parents. administered by the department of public welfare (dpw), keystone stars worked to boost quality by identifying standards and providing financial and technical assistance to programs participating in the keystone stars program. dpw simplified eligibility requirements and procedures for low income families to obtain and maintain child care subsidies. more state funds were budgeted for licensing and inspection of child care programs, professional credentialing and child care provider education and training, quality supports for home-based programs, and community-based training for practitioners. with these changes, 128 one might expect that pennsylvania children should have greater access to the type of ecce more likely to stimulate school readiness in 2006 than in 2002. some administrative data suggests that this is the case. this study can serve as a benchmark for the effectiveness of the current administration’s efforts to increase school readiness of all pennsylvania children. is it true that the state’s children are more likely to be in center-based ecce settings and less likely to be in relative care in 2006 than in 2002? are more children from low income families and families with less educated parents or families from small cities and rural areas more likely to be in center-based types of ecce in 2006 than in 2002? continued monitoring of families, examination of differential access to ecce as a function of family income, and consideration of parental education and geographic location are warranted to answer these questions and to demonstrate the effectiveness of these public policy changes in pennsylvania. notes 1. we were not overly concerned about biases due to telephone ownership because the number of families with accessible telephone numbers in pennsylvania was nearly 98% according to census figures. 2. during the second contact, the spanish-speaking interviewers were able to identify households in which no english and no spanish were spoken. families who did not speak either english or spanish were not able to be interviewed. the number of these families was less than 1% of the sub-sample contacted. 3. if the respondents reported that their use of ecce for the target child differed in summer compared with other months, parents provided information about usage for the month of april, a month selected because it was part of the “academic” year. 4. forty-four mothers in the sample worked in their homes as family/group home providers while also caring for their own child. these children were classified as relative care (total n = 284). because the parent is considered employed and at their work place as a family/group home ecce provider, we believed that this situation is disparate enough from that of a child being cared for exclusively (or with siblings) by a parent. thus, it was decided to classify these children as being in a care arrangement with a relative, rather than in the “not using ecce” group. 5. because the survey relied on parental report, we were unable to identify the extent to which a specific curriculum was utilized or if structured educational activities took place in any of the ecce types. 6. to test for the significance of age effects, analyses described were conducted with the two age groups combined and included a dichotomous child age variable as an additional predictor. 129 7. these ols regression analyses were also run using the two age groups together and included a dichotomous age variable as an additional predictor. a significant age difference was found only for the use of formal ecce. although preschoolers were more commonly in formal 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publishes original research in all subfields of political science along with interdisciplinary articles. open to a variety of approaches and methodologies, commonwealth seeks manuscripts that are based on theoretical perspectives (empirical or normative) as well as those that employ an historical approach. commonwealth solicits manuscripts for a general issue and one or more policy options issues. an important part of the journal’s mission is to encourage research on topics of pennsylvania and regional importance (northeastern and mid-atlantic united states). manuscripts on state and local government, politics, and policy are especially desired. book reviews are generally limited to essays on recently published works with a pennsylvania or regional focus. the journal’s special policy issues are devoted exclusively to dispassionate academic discourse on state and regional public policy issues and options. commonwealth was founded by the pennsylvania political science association (ppsa) in 1987. in 2004, the legislative office for research liaison (lorl) of the pennsylvania house of representatives agreed to jointly publish and expand the journal. the journal’s editorial staff, editorial review board, and referees maintain the highest peer-review and publication standards. public policy research emanating from academic fields other than political science is processed by the university committee for legislative liaison, which advises lorl. copies of commonwealth are sent to all ppsa members — individual, departmental, and institutional. for ppsa membership rates, see the separate announcements in this issue. mailing to ppsa members is generously assisted by the school of public affairs of penn state-harrisburg. lorl provides copies to members of both chambers of the pennsylvania general assembly, to key legislative staff, and to the presidents of each of the pennsylvania colleges and universities that belong to the lorl academic network. in addition, lorl provides copies to the national conference of state legislatures, the council of state governments, the national governors’ association, various other national associations of state and local officials, and to all pennsylvania state depository libraries. back issues of commonwealth are available online at www.house.state.pa.us/cjps. hard copies in limited quantities may be obtained by contacting lorl. speaker’s journal the speaker’s journal is a series of essays important to the future of the citizens of the commonwealth of pennsylvania. published by the office of the speaker, pennsylvania house of representatives, in cooperation with lorl, topics addressed include access to higher education, how to save for college education, the importance of libraries, autism, geospatial policy, and early childhood education. past issues will soon be available online. legislative office for research liaison pennsylvania house of representatives with initial funding from the national science foundation, the pennsylvania house of representatives established the legislative office for research liaison (lorl) in 1976 as the general assembly’s science and technology staff. lorl continues as a nonpartisan research office that enables legislators, committees, and staff to access the expertise of faculty in the lorl university network, which includes most of pennsylvania’s institutions of higher education (drexel university, lincoln university, the pennsylvania state university, temple university, the university of pennsylvania, the university of pittsburgh, the 14 universities in the state system of higher education, and the member institutions of the pennsylvania association of independent colleges and universities). the universities in the lorl network fund the services of two faculty members each year to serve as university visiting scholars in harrisburg throughout the legislative session. the visiting scholars and one to three undergraduate or graduate student interns complement lorl’s full-time staff of six. lorl handles more than 1,000 legislative inquiries annually, from both the house and senate, including about 200 a year that require university assistance. inquiry topics vary widely, ranging from agriculture to workers compensation. in addition, the lorl committee has commissioned major academic studies on topics such as telemedicine and state medical licensure, land-use policy, school curriculum reform, workforce development, and the policy implications of genetic research. lorl and its network have also sponsored a range of policy workshops, seminars, and major conferences for legislators and staff. lorl agreed to join with the ppsa to publish commonwealth: a journal of political science in 2004. the pennsylvania political science association founded in 1939, the pennsylvania political science association (ppsa) is the nation’s oldest state political science association. its mission has always been to promote scholarship, research, and the exchange of ideas within the pennsylvania community of political scientists. ppsa draws its membership principally from the political science and public administration faculties of pennsylvania’s public and private colleges and universities but also includes government professionals and faculty members from surrounding states. ppsa’s annual conference includes dozens of panelists covering a wide variety of subject areas. while university faculty comprise the vast majority of participants, legislators, legislative staff, executive officials, and undergraduates also have been participants. the ppsa began publishing commonwealth: a journal of political science in 1987. guidelines for submitting manuscripts manuscripts from all fields of political science are welcome, especially those on pennsylvania or regional research (northeastern or mid-atlantic united states) in the areas of state and local government, politics, or public policy. state and regional policy research may originate from any relevant academic discipline. manuscripts should be submitted in microsoft word format. the preferred length is 15–30 double-spaced pages, including notes, references, tables, and appendices. citations should follow the american political science association’s style manual for political science. for guidance, authors should consult previous issues of commonwealth, the american political science review, or the editor. tables should be created with the ms-word tools, not created manually, and they should be placed in the body of the manuscript, not at the end. content notes should be used sparingly, and they should be contained in endnotes rather than footnotes. appendices should be placed after the content notes. a list of references should be placed last. the author’s name and affiliation should appear only on a separate cover page. an abstract of no more than 200 words should accompany the manuscript. submit three paper copies (not disks or e-mail attachments) to: dr. gerard j. fitzpatrick department of politics ursinus college collegeville, pa 19426 telephone: (610) 489-4111, ext. 2200 e-mail: gfitzpatrick@ursinus.edu guidelines for submitting articles for special policy issues guidelines for special policy issues of commonwealth may vary by issue. generally, the request for papers that is issued for each special issue provides guidelines for that issue. inquiries concerning active requests for papers as well as proposals for special policy issue topics may be submitted to: dr. michael r. king legislative office for research liaison house box 202218 harrisburg, pa 17120 telephone: (717) 787-8948 e-mail: mking@legis.state.pa.us guidelines for submitting book reviews commonwealth will consider proposals for book reviews of texts currently in print, with an emphasis on pennsylvania or the mid-atlantic and northeast region, in any subfield of political science or political history. reviews should not be undertaken until the book review editor has accepted a proposal. submit proposals to: dr. thomas j. baldino department of political science wilkes college wilkes-barre, pa 18766 telephone: (570) 408-4474 e-mail: tbaldin@wilkes.edu pennsylvania political science association departmental membership form for a reasonable charge, on a single form, an entire department may join the ppsa. ppsa membership provides each member of a department listed on the application form the full benefits received by individual members. these include:  personal copies of commonwealth.  the pennsylvania political scientist, the expanded ppsa newsletter.  advance “call for papers” to the annual meeting of the ppsa. the departmental membership fee is based on the type of degree granted in political science by the member’s institution and by the term of membership. 1 year 3 years * doctoral degree institutions $100 $200 * masters degree institutions $75 $150 * baccalaureate degree institutions $50 $50 * associate degree institutions $25 $25 to enroll prior to the annual meeting, mail by april 1 to: dr. thomas brogan ppsa treasurer department. of political science albright college p.o. box 15234 reading, pa 19612-5234 chairperson’s name _________________________________________ address ______________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________ city, state, zip _______________________________________________ check enclosed for the sum of $ ______________ please list alphabetically, on departmental (or university) stationary, the current faculty members in the department who are to receive ppsa membership along with their academic rank. libraries desiring copies of the journal do not need a subscription or ppsa membership. contact lorl for more information. book 1.indb commonwealth forum addressing pennsylvania’s structural budget deficit in november 2016 pennsylvania’s independent fiscal office released a five-year projection of the health of the commonwealth’s economy and budget. the longterm estimates were not promising, as increasing expenditures outstripped existing sources of revenues. left unchanged, the status quo would result in a deficit of almost $3 billion in fiscal year 2021–2022. tackling this “structural deficit” is one of the most difficult issues facing the state of pennsylvania. given the current political climate, it should come as no surprise that there is no consensus on resolving this problem. commonwealth invited representatives from two very different policy perspectives to provide their solutions to the structural deficit. we would like to thank bob dick of the commonwealth foundation and marc stier of the pennsylvania budget and policy center for addressing this important issue in the commonwealth forum. revitalizing pennsylvania through government reform bob dick pennsylvania is in financial crisis. the growth in government spending, which has risen every year but one since 1970 (commonwealth foundation 2016), is at the heart of this crisis. as of july 2017, the commonwealth’s budget deficit is approximately $2.2 billion (levy 2017b)— a product of real and projected expenditures exceeding revenues in prior and 68 chapter 4 current fiscal years. pennsylvania’s independent fiscal office (ifo 2016) projects this trend will continue through the 2021–2022 fiscal year absent significant policy changes (ryan 2017). the ifo isn’t the only organization with a bleak view of the state’s budget situation. the mercatus center recently released a report on the fiscal health of all fifty states, ranking them based on key metrics used to analyze short and long-term solvency (norcross and gonzalez 2016). pennsylvania placed forty-sixth, beating four other states, including illinois and new jersey— states beset with monumental financial challenges. standard and poor’s has also expressed concerns about pennsylvania’s fiscal condition, warning that unless the state passes a balanced budget and addresses the underlying causes of the structural budget deficit, it faces a possible credit rating downgrade (braun 2017). these warnings concern most everyone, but policy makers are divided over the solution. some believe raising taxes is necessary to fix pennsylvania’s finances. the most prominent and vocal advocate of this idea is governor tom wolf, who has proposed eight different tax hike plans over the course of three years (commonwealth foundation 2017b). his last budget proposal would have raised taxes by $1 billion while making modest reforms to control state spending (pennsylvania office of the budget 2017). in contrast, many fiscally conservative lawmakers prefer spending restraint in the general fund budget—which makes up approximately 40 percent of the state’s total operating budget—and reforms to bring about longterm fiscal stability. in april, house republicans passed a general fund budget that would have limited spending growth and required no tax hikes (dick 2017a). the state senate eventually amended the plan to include a larger spending increase. governor wolf allowed this plan to become law, despite lawmakers’ inability to raise enough revenue to balance the budget as of july 2017 (couloumbis and langley 2017). this is the second year in a row the state’s budget became law without sufficient revenues to pay for authorized spending (meyer 2017), though the move appears to violate legal and constitutional balanced budget mandates. how should lawmakers solve these intractable fiscal problems? first, they must reject tax increases, which stifle economic growth and destabilize the state’s finances. economic growth is key to turning the state’s budget situation around. any policies that could suppress this growth should be rejected. in testimony before the u.s. house of representatives committee on ways and means, economist jonathan williams compared job growth from march 2007 to march 2017 in states without an income tax to states with the highest income taxes. he found no-income-tax states grew 28 percent faster than the highest-income-tax states. population also grew 111 percent faster in no-income-tax states (williams 2017). these findings are not an aberrathe budget 69 tion. william mcbride authored a report on the effects of taxes on economic growth, which included a literature review of twenty-six studies on this topic—all but three of which concluded taxes negatively affect economic growth (mcbride 2012). advocates of a more robust role for government see high taxes as a panacea, but a high tax burden can harm a state’s finances and economy (stansel, torra, and mcmahon 2016). indeed, the ten states in the best fiscal condition—per the above-noted mercatus center report—had an average tax burden of 8.48 percent compared to 10.12 percent for the ten states in the worst fiscal condition (tax foundation 2012). some of the highest-taxed states in the country—maryland, illinois, and new jersey—are in the worst fiscal shape, proof that high taxes won’t bring budget relief and will likely exacerbate budget difficulties. two recent examples illustrate this fact. the first is connecticut. to deal with budget deficits, the state—over five years—enacted the two largest tax increases in its history (fitch 2017). however, these increases could not keep up with spending growth, and lawmakers are now grappling with a $5.1 billion deficit (de avila 2017). in pennsylvania, lawmakers enacted a $650 million tax increase package in july 2016 (levy 2017a) to pay—in part—for a tremendous increase in government spending. it wasn’t enough. the state ended the fiscal year with a $1.5–$1.6 billion deficit (esack 2017). the tax not only failed to stabilize the commonwealth’s budget situation; it also closed dozens of small businesses (gonzalez 2017). these regrettable examples of counterproductive fiscal policy should serve as a warning to policy makers as they grapple with the tough decisions needed to rescue pennsylvania from financial ruin. policy makers can either let the economy grow or grow government. they can’t do both. since tax hikes aren’t a viable solution, policy makers must focus on the spending side of pennsylvania’s balance sheet. critics of this approach tend to assert state government is cut to the bone, which means lawmakers have very few options—if any—to reduce government outlays. but a thorough review of the state’s total operating budget reveals numerous cost-saving opportunities. the following six broad solutions are not exhaustive but represent some of the most transformative options available to lawmakers. reform medicaid to encourage independence the pennsylvania department of human services (dhs), which houses most welfare programs, consumes approximately 39 percent of the general fund budget (pennsylvania house republican appropriations committee 2017). it is the most expensive department in the total operating budget (which includes federal funds and other “off budget” funding). according to the ifo, welfare spending will grow at 5.8 percent annually. in contrast, personal 70 chapter 4 income growth will be just 4.3 percent (ifo 2016). if these trends are left unchecked, dhs will continue to outgrow the economy, requiring additional resources from taxpayers, who already labor under the fifteenth-highest tax burden in the country (tax foundation 2016). any effort to tackle the current fiscal crisis must focus on reducing poverty by redesigning the state’s welfare programs—specifically medicaid, the largest expense in the state budget. lawmakers can reform medicaid—a program that consistently underserves the poor (coleman 2015)—by converting it to a premium assistance support program. this would put medicaid recipients in charge of purchasing their own health insurance with allotted funds. state lawmakers have also advanced work requirements and copays for able-bodied adults and wealthy families (thompson 2017). work requirements combined with time limits on medicaid can help able-bodied adults transition away from government assistance and reduce lengthy waiting lists for those truly in need, without requiring new revenue. expand school choice in 2015–2016, the latest year for which data is available, the typical pennsylvania public school received approximately $16,500 per student in local, state, and federal funding. this represents a 16.5 percent increase over the past five years. pennsylvania ranks in the top ten in education spending as of 2013–2014 (commonwealth foundation 2017c). yet lawmakers increase education spending year after year under the unproven assumption that more spending improves academic achievement. research, however, shows no correlation between academic achievement and education spending. who spends these dollars, not simply how much is spent, is the real difference maker. if dollars are placed in the hands of parents via school choice programs, educational outcomes improve, and taxpayers save (forster 2016). pennsylvania’s two private school choice programs—the educational improvement tax credit (eitc) and opportunity scholarship tax credit (ostc)—spend a fraction of what traditional public schools spend on a perstudent basis. in 2014–2015, average scholarship amounts for the eitc and ostc were $1,775 and $2,300 respectively. expanding these programs to more public school families would not only provide educational lifelines to thousands of students but also deliver cost savings for taxpayers. of course, this requires a paradigm shift for those under the mistaken assumption that a large government bureaucracy is necessary to adequately educate students. overhaul the criminal justice system at more than $2.3 billion, pennsylvania’s corrections system is the third largest expense in the general fund budget. although it has undergone sigthe budget 71 nificant changes over the last five years, more reforms are necessary. a recent report from justice reinvestment initiative (jri) working group (2017) notes that the commonwealth can save more than $108 million over five years by reducing the prison population via several changes to the criminal justice system, including but not limited to the following. release prisoners once their minimum sentence has been completed. people inside the state’s prison facilities are often held past their minimum sentence—by an average of 5.3 months. this extra prison time costs taxpayers tens of millions of dollars and does little to reduce recidivism. releasing prisoners on time can save tax dollars without jeopardizing public safety. increase guidance provided by sentencing guidelines. current guidelines permit a wide range of sentences for the same crime, meaning sentences can be counterproductive or punitive. providing judges with more information on the efficacy of sentences (i.e., which sentences lower recidivism) should be a top priority. this way, judges can issue fair sentences based on all relevant information. the current system relegates too many to prison unfairly, making it more difficult for inmates to return to normal life. improve parole supervision. the jri working group proposes adopting admission criteria for community corrections facilities (also known as halfway houses) based on risk and parolees’ needs. the working group also suggests using short sanctions instead of incarceration for parole violators. the former has proven effective in changing the behavior of violators and is a less expensive alternative to incarceration. these recommendations focus on an important goal: transitioning people from prison back to society while keeping low-risk offenders out of prison. a criminal justice system that promotes independence will help the commonwealth reduce incarceration costs while freeing resources to address more dangerous offenders who pose a threat to society. curtail state borrowing debt service is the fourth largest state expense behind welfare, education, and corrections. since 2002, total outstanding state general obligation debt has increased by 97 percent, from $6.8 billion to $12.3 billion. annual debt payments on general obligation bonds increased from $349 million in fy 2002–2003 to more than $1.1 billion in fy 2016–2017, a 218-percent jump (commonwealth foundation 2017a). this massive increase makes the department of treasury the fastest growing department over the last fifteen years. to avoid adding to taxpayers’ debt load, lawmakers should limit or eliminate borrowing for some of the state’s nonessential programs. among these is the redevelopment assistance capital program (racp), which authorizes wasteful “economic development” projects across the state. some of the most 72 chapter 4 figure 4.1 the light of liberty in the pennsylvania capitol rotunda. (source: michelle j. atherton.) infamous projects have included monuments to politicians, handouts to corporations, and subsidies for stadiums (benefield 2010). there is no evidence of this program boosting overall economic growth in the commonwealth. moreover, the program tends to favor the largest pennsylvania cities over smaller towns (millsap 2015). the budget 73 a cap on borrowing for public improvement projects (pip) is also critical. together, these two programs represent about 43 percent of gross debt service. eventually phasing out racp and putting strict limits on pip can help drive down the cost curve on state debt, freeing funds for other priorities such as law enforcement or tax relief. reduce or eliminate nonessential spending the commonwealth foundation recently identified more than $3 billion in available funds (dick 2017b) that could be redirected to balance the state’s general fund budget. these “off-budget” programs generally operate outside legislative scrutiny. they include corporate welfare programs—like nearly $250 million for the race horse development fund, which finances race purses (prizes) for horse owners—and more than $95 million for the keystone recreation, park and conservation fund, which provides appropriations for recreational activities and facilities. this fund has financed projects such as an african wild dog exhibit and an athletic fields feasibility study. this special interest spending is pervasive throughout the state budget and should be reduced or eliminated permanently. redirecting these and other funds can provide a stable source of revenue to truly balance the state’s general fund budget. enact budget safeguards too often, state spending is left unevaluated and grows without limit, to taxpayers’ detriment. lawmakers can implement two safeguards to end pennsylvania’s broken budget process. the first is performance-based budgeting, which would require an independent analysis of state programs to determine their effectiveness. if a program is deemed ineffective, based on certain objective criteria, it could be scheduled for elimination unless lawmakers vote to protect the program or reform it to address deficiencies. performance-based budgeting would take at least a portion of state spending off autopilot and require periodic examination of programs. it would also increase accountability, requiring lawmakers to go on record as defending or reforming a given program. state expenditure limits are the second safeguard. under this proposal, state spending would not be permitted to grow faster than the combined rate of inflation and population growth—known as the taxpayer protection act index. this proposal would require lawmakers to prioritize spending and ensure any surplus revenue is deposited in a rainy-day fund or used to reduce taxes. had state spending limits been in place since 2003, taxpayers would have saved a cumulative $29.4 billion or $2,300 per person. pennsylvania would also have ended the 2016–2017 fiscal year with an approximate $2 billion surplus. 74 chapter 4 elected officials on both sides of the political aisle mistakenly believe pennsylvania has a revenue problem. this assumption has led to calls for higher taxes and borrowing to pay overdue bills. a closer look at the evidence reveals a different story. the state has failed to control spending for the last four and a half decades. policy makers in harrisburg must acknowledge this truth. only then can the state begin to repair its finances and implement pro-growth policies that will make pennsylvania the economic hub of the northeast. note this article was previously published as “commonwealth forum: addressing pennsylvania’s structural budget deficit,” commonwealth 20, no. 1 (2018). © 2018 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469–7672 (online). http:// dx .doi .org/ 10 .15367/ com .v20i1 .177. all rights reserved. references benefield, nathan. 2010. “the real problem with the specter library.” commonwealth foundation, july 13. available at https:// www .commonwealthfoundation .org/ issues/ detail/ the -real -problem -with -the -specter -library. braun, martin z. 2017. “s&p tells pennsylvania: balance budget or face rating downgrade.” bloomberg, july 6. available at https:// www .bloomberg .com/ news/ articles/ 2017 -07 -06/ s -p -tells -pennsylvania -balance -budget -or -face -rating -downgrade. coleman, kev. 2015. “medicaid acceptance by healthcare providers drops to 1-outof-3.” healthpocket, february 26. available at https:// www .healthpocket .com/ healthcare -research/ infostat/ medicaid -acceptance -doctors -health -care -providers -2015. commonwealth foundation. 2016. “tracking state budget trends.” december 2. available at https:// www .commonwealthfoundation .org/ issues/ detail/ tracking -state -budget -trends. ———. 2017a. “policy points: pennsylvania’s debt burden.” june 15. available at https:// www .commonwealthfoundation .org/ policyblog/ detail/ policy -points -pennsyl vanias -debt -burden. ———. 2017b. “the history of tom wolf ’s proposed tax hikes.” june 22. available at https:// www .commonwealthfoundation .org/ policyblog/ detail/ policy -memo -the -history -of -tom -wolfs -proposed -tax -hikes. ———. 2017c. “education spending overview, 2015–16.” available at https:// www .com mon wealthfoundation .org/ issues/ detail/ education -spending -overview -2015 -16. couloumbis, angela, and karen langley. 2017. “pa. lawmakers approve spending plan on time—but still no plan to pay for it.” philadelphia inquirer, june 30. available at http:// www .philly .com/ philly/ news/ politics/ state/ pa -lawmakers -on -track -to -approve -spending -plan -on -time -20170630 .html. de avila, joseph. 2017. “connecticut, nation’s wealthiest state, may be tapped out on taxing the rich.” wall street journal, may 19. available at https:// www .wsj .com/ articles/ connecticut -nations -wealthiest -state -may -be -tapped -out -on -taxing -the -rich -1495186203. dick, bob. 2017a. “house budget represents a step towards fiscal stewardship.” commonwealth foundation, april 4. available at https:// www .common wealth the budget 75 foundation .org/ policyblog/ detail/ house -budget -represents -a -step -towards -fiscal -stewardship. ———. 2017b. “the unrelenting demand for tax increases illustrates lessons unlearned.” commonwealth foundation, july 10. available at https:// www .common wealthfoundation .org/ policyblog/ detail/ the -unrelenting -demand -for -tax -increases -illustrates -lessons -unlearned. esack, steve. 2017. “pennsylvania gov. tom wolf to let budget become law.” allentown morning call, july 10. available at http:// www .mcall .com/ news/ nationworld/ pennsylvania/ mc -nws -pa -budget -final -deadline -20170710 -story .html. fitch, mark e. 2017. “as connecticut residents flee fiscal mess, some take their jobs with them.” yankee institute for public policy, may 2. available at http:// www .yankee institute .org/ 2017/ 05/ as -connecticut -residents -flee -fiscal -mess -some -take -their -jobs -with -them. forster, greg. 2016. “a win-win solution: the empirical evidence on school choice.” friedman foundation for educational choice. available at http:// www .edchoice .org/ wp -content/ uploads/ 2016/ 05/ a -win -win -solution -the -empirical -evidence -on -school -choice .pdf. gonzalez, junior. 2017. “vape shops close under 40 percent pa. tax.” york dispatch, march 2. available at http:// www .yorkdispatch .com/ story/ news/ 2017/ 03/ 02/ vape -shops -close -under -40 -percent -pa -tax/ 98603910. ifo (independent fiscal office). 2016. “economic and budget outlook, fiscal years 2016–17 to 2021–22.” november 15. available at http:// www .ifo .state .pa .us/ down load .cfm ?file = / resources/ documents/ five _year _outlook _2016 .pdf. justice reinvestment initiative working group. 2017. “justice reinvestment in pennsylvania.” available at https:// csgjusticecenter .org/ wp -content/ uploads/ 2017/ 06/ 6 .26 .17 _jr -in -pennsylvania .pdf. levy, marc. 2017a. “pennsylvania budget takes effect amid fight over funding it.” associated press, july 10. available at https:// www .usnews .com/ news/ best -states/ pennsylvania/ articles/ 2017 -07 -10/ last -day -arrives -for -wolf -to -act -on -32b -spending -bill. ———. 2017b. “pennsylvania sees biggest budget shortfall since recession.” associated press, may 2. available at https:// www .usnews .com/ news/ best -states/ pennsylvania/ articles/ 2017 -05 -02/ pennsylvania -sees -biggest -shortfall -since -recession. mcbride, william. 2012. “what is the evidence on taxes and growth?” tax foundation, december 18. available at https:// files .taxfoundation .org/ legacy/ docs/ sr207 .pdf. meyer, katie. 2017. “for the second year in a row, pennsylvania passes an unbalanced budget.” wesa, july 11. available at http:// wesa .fm/ post/ second -year -row -pennsyl vania -passes -unbalanced -budget. millsap, adam a. 2015. “does pennsylvania’s redevelopment assistance capital program develop its economy?” mercatus center, september. available at https:// www .mercatus .org/ system/ files/ millsap -pa -racp -1 .pdf. norcross, eileen, and olivia gonzalez. 2017. “ranking the states by fiscal condition.” mercatus center. available at https:// www .mercatus .org/ system/ files/ norcross -fiscalrankings -2017 -mercatus -v1 .pdf. pennsylvania house republican appropriations committee. 2017. “2017–18 general fund budget, general fund state appropriations.” available at http:// www .pa budget .com/ display/ sitefiles/ 154/ documents/ fy %202017 -18 %20gf %20 budget/ hb %20218/ 2017 -18 %20gf %20budget %20tracking %20run .pdf. 76 chapter 4 pennsylvania office of the budget. 2017. “2017–18 governor’s executive budget.” available at http:// www .budget .pa .gov/ publicationsandreports/ commonwealthbudget/ documents/ 2017 -18 %20proposed %20budget/ 2017 -18 %20budget %20document %20 %20web .pdf. ryan, mark. 2017. “pennsylvania’s fiscal and demographic outlook.” independent fiscal office, july 14. available at http:// www .ifo .state .pa .us/ download .cfm ?file = / resources/ documents/ presentation _lancaster _chamber _2017 -07 -14 .pdf. stansel, dean, josé torra, and fred mcmahon. 2016. “economic freedom of north america 2016.” fraser institute. available at https:// www .fraserinstitute .org/ sites/ default/ files/ economic -freedom -of -north -america -2016 .pdf. tax foundation. 2016. “state-local tax burden rankings, fy 2012.” january 20. available at https:// taxfoundation .org/ state -local -tax -burden -rankings -fy -2012. thompson, charles. 2017. “medicaid politics comes to harrisburg via pennsylvania’s state budget debate.” pennlive, july 15. available at http:// www .pennlive .com/ politics/ index .ssf/ 2017/ 07/ medicaid _politics _comes _to _har .html. williams, jonathan. 2017. “united states house of representatives committee on ways and means written testimony.” american legislative exchange council, may 18. available at https:// www .alec .org/ article/ united -states -house -of -representatives -committee -on -ways -and -means -written -testimony. the continuing pennsylvania crisis in perspective marc stier the rise of the right in pennsylvania politics fads there are fads in politics, like every other human endeavor. one such fad has, in the last ten years, wreaked havoc with the finances of states in every part of the country—the claim that the path to prosperity can be found in relentless cutting of spending and taxes, especially taxes on business. the far right comes to pennsylvania during the late 1990s this ideology took hold here mainly but not entirely among republicans. even some democrats embraced the notion that reducing taxes, especially on corporations, might spur economic growth. as governor ed rendell was raising the personal income tax to fund increased education spending, he was cutting corporate taxes. republicans embraced the theory with a vengeance, promising everyone tax cuts, although most tax relief went to corporations. republicans could cut taxes at the federal level without concern for running up deficits. but in the states, tax cuts had to be balanced by spending cuts. so republicans needed a rationale for those cuts and came up with one—arguing, falsely, that public services were growing fast and were too the budget 77 expensive because public sector unions were receiving salaries and pensions far above those in the private sector. the corbett and wolf years the right takes advantage of the recession as late as the last years of the twentieth century, the republican party in the general assembly was fairly moderate, and leadership tended to come from centrists. but ideological shifts in the republican electorate and district lines that empower the far right have gradually led both the house and, to a lesser extent, the senate to move to the right. when the great recession took hold and state tax revenues fell dramatically after 2008, right-wing republicans found their opportunity. in the last two years of his administration, federal stimulus funds enabled rendell to balance budgets without deep reductions in spending. but as those funds ran out, pennsylvania, like other states, was faced with the choice of raising new revenues or making deep cuts in state spending. the right found an accomplice in governor tom corbett, who embraced the far-right prescription of budget cutting. the result was deep reductions in every area. there was a $1 billion cut to state funding of k–12 education. and since pennsylvania had abandoned a funding formula for distributing money, those cuts were felt far more deeply in poor districts, especially urban but also some rural ones. the result was layoffs of over twenty thousand teachers, guidance counselors, and librarians. pennsylvania schools, already undersupported by the state, came to be the most unequally funded schools in the country, with schools in the most prosperous 25 percent of districts spending 33 percent more than schools in the least prosperous 25 percent of districts. reductions of over 30 percent to higher education had similar effects. tuition went up in the pennsylvania state system of higher education (passhe) by 20 percent. the corbett administration cuts on top of a decade of neglect led pennsylvania to fall to fourth from the bottom of all states in funding per college student. in 2013 only 56.1 percent of pennsylvania adults age twenty-five and over had more than a high school degree, ranking us forty-first of fifty states. governor corbett and the right-wing general assembly also drastically reduced general assistance to the poor and increased waiting lists for childcare, mental health, and disability services. at a time when the growth of natural gas fracking demanded more from the department of environmental protection, it suffered similar reductions and today remains funded at roughly two-thirds the level it was before the great recession. 78 chapter 4 spending on pennsylvania’s crumbling infrastructure also fell until, in the last year of the corbett administration, a coalition of business-minded republicans and democrats pushed through an increase in gas taxes to restore our roads, bridges, and transit systems. the state still remains near the top of the list of those with serious infrastructure problems. overall general fund spending in the fifteen years before governor corbett averaged 4.7 percent of the state gdp. it fell by 7.25 percent to 4.33 percent during his years as governor. unfortunately for state finances, tax revenues fell by 8.25 percent, creating persistent deficits. the phase-out of the capital stock and franchise tax continued, and governor corbett took advantage of a change in federal law to reduce the corporate income tax in pennsylvania by about $300 million. perhaps more important, corbett and the extremist republicans refused to institute a severance tax on natural gas drilling. although the state has huge natural gas reserves that are relatively cheap to exploit, we remain the only state without a severance tax, costing pennsylvania billions in revenue during the corbett years and about $300 million a year since gas prices dropped. the wolf years governor corbett’s policies were repudiated at the polls in 2014 when he became the first pennsylvania governor since the adoption of the 1968 constitution to be defeated for reelection. but even though governor wolf promised to reverse the direction of the state, the general assembly continued to tilt even further to the right as a result of the impact of partisan redistricting and national political trends in 2014 and 2016. the republican general assembly has forced additional spending cuts, as general fund spending as a share of gdp continued to decline under governor wolf to 4.25 percent. even including special funds, spending as a share of gdp has fallen from 7.36 percent to 6.91 percent over fifteen years. (it is misleading to include federal spending in pennsylvania for such things as medicaid and education in the total of state spending.) similarly, taxes continue to decline in pennsylvania as the state has fallen to twenty-third among all states in taxes per capita. (again, it is misleading to count taxes paid by relatively well-off pennsylvanians to the federal government as part of state taxes.) the wolf administration’s effort to find over $1.5 billion in efficiencies has enabled it to direct more money to k–12 education, while also meeting mandatory cost increases in corrections, medicaid, and pension costs. the corbett cuts to education have been fully restored for the most prosperous school districts and partially restored for the least prosperous ones. while this is an important achievement, pennsylvania still needs to spend billions more to equitably and adequately fund every school. the budget 79 the wolf administration has also directed small increases to human services, especially for opioid addiction, childcare, the intellectually disabled, and the passhe colleges and universities. recurring deficits despite these increases, budgets under governor wolf have remained austere, in no small part because the state has started each year with a deficit of $1–$1.5 billion just to provide the same level of services as in the previous year. the deficits have longand short-term causes. the long-term cause is the decline in tax revenues, especially from corporate taxes, which have fallen from 30 percent of all revenues in 1972 to 20 percent in 2006, to only 15 percent this year. if corporate taxes still made up 20 percent of all revenues, the state would bring in an additional $2.3 billion per year, enough to close the yearly budget deficit while also increasing public investment. the short-term cause of recurring deficits is that, except for increases in tobacco taxes in 2016–2017, the general assembly has refused to raise recurring revenues, preferring to balance the budget with one-year funds, such as the sales of licenses to sell liquor or promote gambling, and budget gimmicks such as borrowing from (or raiding) special funds that serve important state purposes, overestimating revenues, and shifting spending from one fiscal year to the next. republicans in the general assembly insist on balancing budgets with smoke and mirrors rather than real revenues for two ideologically based reasons. on the one hand, they oppose new taxes. on the other, continuing budget deficits serve as a political cudgel to force deeper cuts in spending. it can be an effective tactic, especially when paired with the false claim that spending increases, rather than tax reductions, are the main source of budget deficits. the failure of the right and another path economic distress in pennsylvania and beyond the united states conducted a natural experiment in political economy in the years after the great recession as some states responded to declining revenues with deep cuts in public spending and taxes while others raised taxes, especially on the rich, and increased spending especially for pre-k, k–12, and higher education. today, the states that raised taxes and spending, such as california and minnesota, are growing relatively fast, have balanced state budgets, and have rising wages. the states that cut spending and taxes, such as kansas and louisiana, have found themselves in a deepening morass as spending 80 chapter 4 reductions have slowed their economies and wage growth and, together with tax cuts, further reduced revenues creating deep budget deficits. pennsylvania did not go as far as kansas and louisiana in cutting spending and taxes, but the cuts of the corbett years reduced economic growth and worsened deficits. and, together with our failure to raise the minimum wage, the decline in public investment in the state explains why wage growth remains below all of our neighboring states, especially for those in the bottom 20 percent of wage earners. a way forward the recent action by a bipartisan group of pennsylvania senators, to raise recurring revenues and institute a small severance tax to balance the budget for the current year, suggests that here, as in kansas, the right-wing taxand budget-cutting fever may be breaking. so perhaps the time has come to put forward another direction for the state. a growing body of evidence clearly shows that, far from harming the economy, public investment, especially in infrastructure and education at all levels including training for those who do not go to college, is critical to economic growth and especially growth that benefits lowas well as high-income pennsylvanians. the question, however, is how to pay for investment in a way that is fair and politically palatable at a time when slow income growth for all but the top 1 percent makes tax increases unpopular. that’s a particularly difficult problem because we have a constitutional uniformity clause that prohibits graduated tax rates. as a result, we have one of the most inequitable tax systems in the country. families in the bottom quintile pay 12 percent of their income in state and local taxes, families in the middle quintile pay 10 percent, and those in the top 1 percent pay only 4.3 percent. to address that problem, we have supported closing corporate tax loopholes and a severance tax that in the next few years would bring in $1 billion a year. we have also called for a fair share tax that would increase the tax rate on income from wealth (capital gains, business profits, dividends, royalties, and estates) while reducing the rate on wages and interest. increasing the tax on income from wealth from the current 3.07 percent to 6.5 percent combined with reducing the rate on wages and interest to 2.8 percent would raise $2 billion, while cutting taxes for 60 percent of pennsylvanians and leaving taxes unchanged for another 25 percent. over 50 percent of the new revenue would come from the top 1 percent, and 82 percent would come from the top 5 percent of households. and yet taxes on the top 1 percent would remain below those of all neighboring states and half the rate of new york and new jersey. conclusion right now, pennsylvania’s government is torn between a republican general assembly that is still in the grip of radical right-wing ideas that mainly benthe budget 81 efit the very rich and corporations and a democratic governor who recognizes that broadly shared prosperity requires selective increases in public investment paid for by new, and equitable, taxation. it is up to the people of pennsylvania to choose between these two paths forward. discussion questions 1. why do the authors provide such drastically different solutions to pennsylvania’s structural budget problems? 2. bob dick argues that spending restraint is the key to dealing with budget problems. why? how does he use the experiences of “high tax” states to bolster his claims? 3. he also supports the enactment of “budget safeguards” to prevent the state from spending too much? what are these safeguards? 4. marc stier claims that republicans are responsible for current budget problems. why? 5. why does he claim that pennsylvania would be best off by increasing both taxes and spending? what changes would he make to the tax system? from pennsylvania politics and policy: a commonwealth reader, volume 2. edited by michelle j. atherton and j. wesley leckrone (philadelphia, temple university press, 2019). microsoft word volume 14.doc commonwealth: a journal of political science  volume 14, number 1  december 2008 special policy issue on public health  2008 ppsa/lorl, pa house of reps. issn 0890-2410 financial analysis and structural considerations to the problem of rural public health in pennsylvania* alberto j.f. cardelle, phd, mph, east stroudsburg university abstract currently, none of pennsylvania's 48 rural counties has a local health department (lhd). this is despite the existence of laws that provide locales with per capita funding for public health and environmental services. this study examines the financial issues that may influence the establishment of a robust public health infrastructure in rural areas. the study looks at 10 rural counties in the state and, through financial analysis of different lhd models (using the 2003-04 financial data) for rural counties, helps demonstrate that the relatively high levels of local funds required to establish lhds would be a major financial undertaking. testing three models – single-county, bi-county and tricounty lhds – the study shows that locales would require an average of $16 per capita annually in local funds. the model analysis shows that small population size, large geographic area, and the low availability of primary care services drive expenses higher. since rural counties have low population density, cover broad geographic expanses, and suffer from chronic lack of primary care services, rural lhds covering rural counties have to cover a very large geographic area, a critical cost driver especially for environmental services such as water supply testing. geographically large rural counties are also pressured to provide personal health services given the limited number of primary care providers. the result is a local health department with very high expenses. the paper concludes with policy considerations that may help to overcome these barriers, including establishing secondary formulas that are an alternative to per capita funding as well as creation start-up costs funds. *the research for this article was funded by the center for rural pennsylvania. 100 financial analysis and structural considerations to the problem of rural public health in pennsylvania introduction in pennsylvania, the creation of local public health departments (lhd) is left to the discretion of local government. this has meant that out of 67 counties in the commonwealth of pennsylvania, only five have a lhd. in addition, five municipalities have local health bureaus.1 all of the 42 rural counties in pennsylvania lack a lhd, meaning that 2,824,642 persons or 23% of the commonwealth’s population lack the services of a lhd. in the eventuality of a disease outbreak in any of the 42 rural counties of pennsylvania, it is fair for the residents of these counties to ask, “whom should we call?” in 2003, when 500 people in beaver county, pennsylvania, were infected with hepatitis a as a result of eating at a local restaurant, the county had to rely on nurses and physicians mobilized by the pennsylvania department of health from other parts of the state to complete the necessary vaccinations and carry out the necessary epidemiological investigations. while beaver county is not rural, the hepatitis outbreak highlighted many of the difficulties faced by counties without a lhd. although the source of the outbreak turned out to be contaminated food, the contrast between counties with lhds and those without lhds emerged. for example, it became evident that restaurants in beaver county were inspected by the state department of agriculture, while those in allegheny county, just over the county line, are regulated by one of 15 restaurant inspectors in the allegheny county health department. while inspectors from both agencies look at the same food safety practices, the allegheny county health department requires that restaurants always have an employee on-site who is trained in food safety by the county or an equivalent program in food safety (rotstein and snowbeck 2003). the events in beaver county suggest that pennsylvania’s 42 rural counties lack the necessary resources to address a disease outbreak. according to the health resources and services administration (hrsa), the estimated national public health workforce – including federal employees and the salaried staff of a limited number of voluntary agencies – is 448,254 employed workers, a ratio of 138 per 100,000 persons. pennsylvania has 37 workers per 100,000 people, the lowest 1counties with health departments are montgomery, bucks, chester, erie, and allegheny; municipal bureaus include philadelphia, york, allentown, bethlehem, and wilkes-barre. alberto j.f. cardelle 101 ratio of public health workers to population in the nation. of the federal workforce, 3.6% are identified as holding official/administrative positions, 44.6% are in professional positions, 13.9% in technical positions, and 12.9% in clerical/support positions.2 in stark contrast in pennsylvania, 12% of the public health workforce is identified as holding official/administrative positions, 49% are in professional positions, 6% in technical positions, and 20% in clerical/support positions. therefore, not only does pennsylvania have the smallest public health workforce, it has a very low percentage of professionals in the technical fields, particularly in the areas of mental health and substance abuse (gebbie 2000). pennsylvania act 315, passed by the legislature in 1951, governs the establishment of lhds. in accordance to act 315, county health departments will receive a grant equal to 50% of the total of the department expenditures but not to exceed more than $6 for every person within the jurisdiction of the county department of health. additionally, act 12 provides established lhds an additional annual grant of not more than $1.50 per capita resident for environmental health services provided by the county or municipality. therefore, existing legislation provides any county with a lhd up to $7.50 per capita resident in funding. in addition to these grants, areas with lhds have increased likelihood of qualifying for state and federal categorical health grant funding. across the state, existing lhds receive an average of $3.14 per person in categorical grants. many federal categorical health grants are available only to local health departments, and even those for which it is not necessary to have a lhd, counties with lhds have a significant comparative advantage. given these health and financial advantages to establishing lhds, this paper identifies the structural and financial obstacles that keep rural counties from establishing lhds and it examines lhd models suitable for rural counties. existing literature similar to pennsylvania, the national public health system varies greatly by geography, and fails to provide an equitable distribution of 2the remaining 25% could not be assigned to a specific category. 102 financial analysis and structural considerations to the problem of rural public health in pennsylvania services. as a nation, the united states has used a “band-aid” approach to funding in public health, favoring short-term interventions instead of long-term investment in the country’s public health infrastructure (ohara 2001). estimates show that 95% of united states’ health spending goes toward medical interventions, and only 5% to population-based health interventions and various research activities (levi et al. 2007). the trust for america’s health (tfah) showed that “the united states has made a major commitment to biomedical research, as evidenced by the $28 billion budget for the national institutes of health, but has not yet made a similar commitment to public health” (levi et al. 2007). before the events of 9/11, there had been a 10-year decline in public health infrastructure funding. from 1990 to 1993, the percentage of the nation’s health care dollars spent on public health declined from 2.7% to 1% (johnson 2001). in some parts of the country, the combination of the balanced budget act of 1997 and government cutbacks saw the per capita spending in public health decline by 33% between 1997 and 2003 (naccho 2003). surveys and studies conducted before september 11, 2001, found that many communities lacked adequate laboratories or epidemiologists trained to detect infectious disease outbreaks. even the centers for disease control and prevention (cdc), the nation’s premier public health agency, relied heavily on antiquated laboratories constructed in the 1960s and 1970s. furthermore, prior to 1999, onethird of public health departments serving fewer than 25,000 people did not have access to the internet or electronic mail, and almost 20% of all lhds had no e-mail capacity at all (frist 2002). after the anthrax outbreaks of 2001, cdc funds have increased from just under $4 billion in 2000, to $7.7 billion in 2003, and to $8.4 billion in 2006. however, much of this can be attributed to post-9/11 terrorism preparedness activities rather than core public health functions (levi et al. 2007). for example, even though hiv continues to be a domestic epidemic, funding for hiv has decreased 21% since 2001 (levi et al. 2007). similarly, the current level of chronic diseases, which account for the vast majority of morbidity and mortality in the united states, capture only marginal public health interest or financial support (beitsch et al. 2006). this lack of a national commitment has meant that the tendency in the country is for local government control and funding of public health service. today most states in the united states organize their public alberto j.f. cardelle 103 health systems around county health departments3 (mays et al. 2004). the national association of county and city health officials (naacho) has currently identified 2,865 local public health agencies in the united states (naccho 2005; beitsch et al. 2006). of these, 59% were county-wide, 14% covered a city and county, 9% covered more than one county4 with the remainder (18%) covering smaller geographic areas (towns and townships) (naccho 2005). sixty-two percent of lhds in the united states serve populations of less than 50,000 persons and 40% of lhds serve even less populated rural areas (naccho 2005). the existing lhds vary immensely in their per capita expenditures. a comparison of the expenditures of small boards of health with the expenditures of large city departments shows an average differential of 600%5 (naccho 2005). lhds also vary with regard to workforce. more than 30% of lhds have fewer than 10 full-time staff, with a median of 19 employees (naccho 2005). the small entities typically employ a manager/ director, nurses, an environmental specialist, and clerical staff, while the specialized staff such as nutritionist, health educator, emergency preparedness coordinator, and epidemiologist, are in lhds serving larger jurisdictions (naccho 2005). the variation in resources resulted in variation of services provided. of the 75 public health-related activities and services offered by lhds, three-quarters or more of lhds offered only eight of them (naccho 2005). a strong reliance on local resources has been an important factor in the development of the united states’ “fragmented and uneven” public health infrastructure (baker et al. 2005). the naccho survey showed 3an agency of local government, a local health department (lhd) develops and administers programs and services that are aimed at maintaining a healthy community. to ensure that these efforts address a community's most important health problems and concerns, the local health department encourages residents to participate in assessing public health needs and in formulating a community health plan. it also works with other community organizations to assure that needed services and programs are available. 4bi-county or tri-county health departments are like single-county health departments except they serve a larger area and are responsible to more than one county board. with this arrangement, a board of health is created with representatives from each county. the revenues and expenses are shared proportionally. 5the median per capita expenditure is a low of $9 per capita in massachusetts to a high of $94 per capita in maryland (naccho 2005). 104 financial analysis and structural considerations to the problem of rural public health in pennsylvania that 65% of the funding for existing lhds comes from local government sources, the state, or is pass-through grants from the state. an additional 30% of the funding comes from fee-for-service programs and competitive grants sought by each department. additionally, how lhds access these funds varies, and states use multiple funding mechanisms to fund local public health programs. these include: 1) a combination of per capita funding and activity-specific or staff-specific grants; 2) negotiated contracts for local services; 3) formulas incorporating variables of health status and financial resources of the local population; 4) per capita distribution of state funds based on local population statistics; 5) reimbursement of allowable expenditures for pre-established set of services; and 6) state funding for local agencies that are extensions of the state agency (potter and fitzpatrick 2007). the lack of an entity with comprehensive authority and responsibility for creation, maintenance, and oversight of the nation’s public health infrastructure has resulted in the country’s fragmented system. however, potter and fitzgerald found three key trends in state funding of public health that show that in cases where the state government plays a greater managerial role, funding increases. the three trends are: first, that the degree of state oversight and the procedures used for oversight of local budgets and programs are related to funding levels; second, an association between service mandates on lhds and levels of state funding; and third, state mandates for local public health services appear typically to be funded mandates (potter and fitzpatrick 2007). in pennsylvania, these trends are not present. there are no mandates requiring local governments to establish lhds, however, if locales do establish lhds, there are service mandates, but the state funds only 50% of the services. overall, the public health infrastructure in pennsylvania is reliant on local government to generate funds or identify funding, and there is a fragmented system depending upon whether or not a county has a lhd. methodology the project methodology is divided into three general tasks – data gathering, data analysis, and modeling. the first task was acquisition and preparation of the data. twelve rural counties without a lhd that were most similar to counties with lhds were purposefully sampled (table alberto j.f. cardelle 105 1). the 42 rural counties in the state were grouped by health district. the counties were then stratified by income, population density, and poverty rates. three counties from four of the six health districts were selected. the southeast health district was not used because it includes only one rural county, and the southwest health district was not sampled because it had an unrepresentative population density level among its rural counties. three counties from the remaining four districts were sampled, using counties that were most similar with regard to the mean income, population density, and poverty rate of the counties with lhds. table 1: sampled counties health district county northwest mckean clarion jefferson northcentral bradford snyder tioga northeast monroe susquehanna wyoming southcentral mifflin fulton juniata the 2003-04 budgets from the sampled counties, as well as the budgets from the counties and municipalities with existing lhds, were collected. legislative language of act 315 and act 12 and the pennsylvania code guiding the establishment of lhds were gathered. policymakers from all counties with lhds and from the pennsylvania department of health were interviewed. in addition, a purposeful sample6 of policymakers of the sampled counties was interviewed. the data analysis consisted of analyzing the mandated financial requirements of the legislation. the financial statements of counties and 6the sample consisted of policymakers who agreed to speak to the project researchers and who felt they had enough information on the process. 106 financial analysis and structural considerations to the problem of rural public health in pennsylvania the existing lhds were analyzed in order to determine the prototypical balance sheets, revenue streams and expense categories. the financial statements were also analyzed to identify the key cost drivers (per capita, per services, or personnel). forecasted revenues were calculated by using the total population to be served as a multiplier for all potential revenue sources. in addition, the percent of the population living below poverty was used to determine categorical grant revenue since levels of poverty are a significant categorical grant revenue driver, and the grant revenues were forecasted by giving both factors (population and poverty level) equal weight. the expenses were forecasted by categories. these figures were forecasted using population and land area covered, and medically underserved areas. population and land area to be covered were used to forecast all of the expense categories. underserved areas were used to forecast personal health expenses since the availability of primary care was a significant cost driver of personal health expenses. finally, the organizational structures of the existing lhds were analyzed, and a prototypical organizational structure (personnel, programmatic, and decision-making) was developed. the final step, the modeling process, included the creation of an organizational, programmatic, and budget structure for a prototypical single county health department adequate for three of the sampled counties, for two bicounty lhds (four counties), and two tri-county lhds (six counties). based on these structures, which provide a more specific expense structure, reconciled expense budgets for each model were developed. financial requirements of act 315 and act 12 according to act 315, the secretary of health annually computes the disbursement to lhds based on lhds’ eligible public health expenditures. the state’s 315 disbursement provides lhds with 50% of the funding of all expenditures that are public health related and not paid for out of any special grants received from the state or the federal government. lhds will also receive a disbursement $1.50 per capita from act 12 for environmental health services. there is no required match of local funds for funds drawn down through act 12. alberto j.f. cardelle 107 as table 2 demonstrates, the revenue structure of existing lhds vary, but on average act 315 and act 12 funds represent about 30% of the funds employed by the lhds. table 2 percent of budget by funding source extant lhd total budget act 315/12 grants fees direct funds per capita cost roi per capita benefits allegheny* $43,866,737 21% 51% 9% 20% $6.93 399% $27.62 bucks $ 9,056,640 42% 18% 10% 29% $4.51 241% $10.89 chester $ 7,493,410 43% 26% 21% 9% $1.63 960% $15.65 montgomery $ 7,200,000 42% 23% 9% 19% $1.93 414% $8.01 allentown $ 3,048,295 25% 22% 5% 48% $13.74 108% $14.85 york $ 1,096,246 29% 44% 3% 21% $5.72 383% $21.89 average $11,960,221 28% 40% 10% 21% $5.74 417% $16.48 *the allegheny lhd budget includes monies for its emergency medical system. usually, the second most important source of funding for lhds are grants. these are usually either state or federal categorical and block grants. all of the existing departments and bureaus reported that any increase in funding is a result of the availability of non-act 315 or act 12 grants. existing lhds receive an average of $2.3 million dollars in federal categorical grants. the most common categorical grants received by lhds are for immunization, family planning, clean water, hiv/aids, and cancer prevention. existing lhds receive an average of $1.8 million in state grants (non-act 315 and 12). a majority of these funds are passed through from the preventive health and health services (phhs) block grant that the state of pennsylvania receives from the federal government. the phhs block grant is the primary source of flexible funding that provides states the latitude to fund any of 265 national health objectives available in the nation's healthy people 2010 health improvement plan. in fiscal year 2001, pennsylvania chose 17 108 financial analysis and structural considerations to the problem of rural public health in pennsylvania priority areas for distributing its phhs block grant and received approximately $8 billion.7 the third source of funding for lhds is inspection fees and licensures costs. lhds that carry out public and recreational pool and restaurant inspections charge the sites a fee for the inspection and license. although these services are act 12 reimbursable services, the lhds use this money to not only offset their additional environmental services costs, but also as part of the funds that are eligible for the act 315 match. any income that lhds can generate as a result of their services serves to offset the amount of funds that the county must generate as direct contribution to the lhd, which is the fourth source of revenue for lhds. direct funding is any source not generated from reimbursable grants, categorical grants, or fees collected. these direct funds are usually not new funds collected by the local government for the purposes of subsidizing the lhds. these funds may support other health services that the local government has historically provided and which is protecting the public’s health. these services include: county funds used for vector control (mosquito and gypsy fly control), drug and alcohol prevention programs, preventative health services provided to seniors in long-term care settings (chronic disease screenings), preventive health service provided to prisoners in county jails (std screenings), solid waste and litter control programs, weights and measures certification, county/municipal health services information and referral systems, county/municipal health and wellness fairs, and any other service that is designed to protect the health of the public. since counties may not use financial resources from state and federal grants as match, direct funds are the most critical financial issue associated with the reimbursable grants (act 315) because these are the most common source of financing available for the match. these funds usually emanate from revenues or from intergovernmental transfer from an existing department to a new department, in order for the lhd qualify for the grants. although as the data shows (table 2, page 107), the 7cancer, diabetes, educational and community-based programs, heart disease and stroke, heart disease and stroke, immunization and infectious diseases, injury and violence prevention, nutrition and overweight, oral health, physical activity and fitness, public health data, surveillance, epidemiology, and training, respiratory diseases, rape or attempted rape, administrative cost. alberto j.f. cardelle 109 investment made by counties with lhds for lhd activities and the match demonstrate a return on investments (roi)8 of over 100%, the earmarking of these matching funds during the creation of a lhd represents a major barrier for counties. in the long term, these funds represent a very good investment with existing lhds producing an average roi of over 400%. for example, chester county’s department of health has almost an annual 1000% roi. for its annual investment of about $700,000 of direct county revenues into the chester county health department, that health department offers the county $7.5 million in services. revenue drivers the analysis looked at various different revenue drivers (factors driving revenue) to determine the factors that most influenced the lhd’s ability to generate revenue. the drivers explored were population, poverty rates, geographic size of the areas covered, size of the local government, and the demographic structure of the population covered. these factors were selected based on the qualitative data generated from the interviews with lhd administrators. each of these factors was identified by at least one administrator as being a factor that affected their ability to generate funds. the two factors that show the strongest influence on revenue are population and levels of poverty in the community served. the other factors were either not significant, or closely related to population (number of townships for example). table 3 shows the pearson correlation coefficient9 between the different revenue sources and total population and percentage of the population below poverty. the data means that as the population covered by the lhd increases, so does the revenue. the same relationship exists between revenue and poverty levels. in other words, as poverty levels increase, revenues increase. although this is an expected trend given that act 315 8the roi was calculated by dividing the total amount of financial resources used to provide public health services (not including the direct funds) by the amount of lhd budgets stemming from direct funds. 9pearson correlation coefficient is a measure of how closely to variables relate to each other. a coefficient of close to one means that the two variables are positively correlated, or in other words as one rises the other also tends to rise. 110 financial analysis and structural considerations to the problem of rural public health in pennsylvania and act 12 funds are reimbursable on a per capita basis, the analysis shows these funds are not the only source that is dependent on population size. table 3 shows there is a strong positive relationship between population and grants (a pearson correlation coefficient of 0.84). this is explained by the fact that many of the non-reimbursable grants are formula grants based on the population covered. these trends are an important consideration for rural areas with small populations. rural areas would be less likely to generate the additional funds from grants and fees, therefore requiring a relative greater proportion of the revenues to come from local government. table 3: correlation10 between sources of revenue and revenue drivers and types of services population poverty (%) personal health services environmental health services public health services act 315 & 12 revenue 0.96 0.98 0.144 0.54 -0.36 grant revenue 0.84 0.99 0.580 0.06 -0.61 user fee revenue 0.88 0.92 -0.200 0.91 -0.38 direct funds revenue 0.86 0.97 -0.550 -0.78 0.95 a second important revenue driver is the level of poverty in the county. table 3 shows that there is a strong correlation between poverty levels and all the revenue funds, with the highest strongest correlation (.99) found between levels of poverty and grants (this is controlling for the difference between the municipal lhds and county lhds). this relationship is also expected given that poverty levels, like population, are key eligibility criteria in many competitive grants. cost drivers act 315 and act 12 funding require the recipient to provide a certain set of services and to maintain a certain personnel structure. using the general structures established by the legislation, table 4 shows how the 10pearson correlations. alberto j.f. cardelle 111 extant lhds compare with regard to expenditure structures. expenditures are grouped into four general and generic categories: administration, personal health services (immunizations, std testing counseling, maternal and child health services, etc.), environmental health services (all of the act 12 mandated services), and public health services (health education, public health laboratory, public health policy development, epidemiology, etc). on the average, existing lhds spend an average of 18% on administration, 30% on personal health services, 40% on environmental services, and 12% on public health services. table 4 lhd11, 12 total budget administration (%) personal health (%) environmental health (%) public health (%) allegheny $18,405,300 20% 29% 40% 11% chester 8,426,541 13% 31% 48% 8% allentown 1,902,799 27% 15% 21% 37% york 1,096,246 14% 54% 23% 9% average 7,457,722 18% 30% 40% 12% all of the lhds interviewed indicated that the most important determinant of their expense structure is their revenue stream. in other words, what they spend is determined by their success in obtaining funds. in particular, their grant revenues are most influential. the existing lhds report that the only significant revenue growth experienced by lhds emerges from grant funds. the analysis of the expenditures shows that a lhd’s grant revenue is most influential on their personal health services. table 3 (page 110) shows the correlation (pearson correlation coefficients) between revenue sources and expenditure types. it also shows that as lhds generate more grant revenue they are more likely to increase their personal health services 11the revenues reported in the previous section do not necessarily match the expenses because the budgets reported here are strictly for the expenses of activities considered to be core public health functions (for example, allegheny county has $500,000 passthrough grant to manage county jail health care) and because lhds revenues streams have different fiscal years and therefore lhds may carry a balance between fiscal years. 12these are the only reported budgets because of either difficulty in obtaining budgets or in obtaining budgets in which expenditures are reported per program. 112 financial analysis and structural considerations to the problem of rural public health in pennsylvania (0.54). this again is consistent with the objectives of these grant sources, which include maternal and child health, std treatment, counseling, and screenings, etc. there is also a very strong relationship between user fee revenue and environmental services (0.91). this is also an expected outcome since a major source of the user fee revenues comes from lhd’s environmental services, and food handling facilities inspections. finally, direct funds are most influential on public health services. while the reason for this is not completely clear, it is likely that these services are in part associated with lhd activities in policy development and consultation with government officials, not traditionally a reimbursable service. personal health services are also a significant cost driver for existing lhds. not only in pennsylvania, but also throughout the country, lhds that serve as safety-net providers are forced to invest a significant amount of resources in their personal health programs. the tendency has been that lhds in areas with few safety-net providers tended to fill this void. based on the examples examined here, the york city health department has the highest percentage of their funds expended on personal health services. the trend observed with these four lhds correlates negatively (-0.71) with the number of primary care physicians per 100,000 persons. lhds in areas with a limited number of primary care physicians tend to fill the service void and provide a wider array of personal health services, which in other areas private practitioners provide. it is important to highlight that nationally the trend has been for lhds to reduce their personal health services as medicaid has moved toward a managed care model because reimbursements have declined. as mentioned in section two, this has been a major factor in the reduction of funding for lhds nationally. environmental services expenses are the largest expenditures of existing lhds. while the reasons for this are not completely evident, there are four influencing factors. first is the size of the territory covered by the lhds. unlike the other types of services, environmental programs such as restaurant and pool inspections require periodic onsite visits increasing the need for staff and transportation. the percentage of overall expenditures that lhds spend on environmental services correlates strongly with square miles covered by the lhd (0.97). second, environmental services, compared to other services such as education and screening, for example, are more costly in that they involve testing alberto j.f. cardelle 113 and laboratory procedures. third, environmental services are a revenuegenerating service for lhds. since lhds charge an inspection fee from the sites that are inspected, lhds have the incentive to provide extensive and continuous coverage so as to maximize their revenue-producing activities. in addition, administrators also report that environmental services are also the service that are most visible and most publicly and politically scrutinized. since no local government, and more importantly no local elected official, wants to have an environmental incident in their jurisdiction (food poisoning or disease outbreak), local health officials feel compelled to provide thorough environmental services. in summary, total population covered, geographic area covered, and availability of primary care services will be the key cost and revenue drivers used to assemble new public health models. rural lhd models this section constructs three different viable models: the single county health department, the bi-county health department and the tricounty health department for four regions of pennsylvania. these models include a sample revenue structure, an expenditure budget, a personnel structure, and a program budget. the models’ budgets consist of creating a general revenue and expenditure budget using a basic forecasting method that uses the revenue and expenditure data of the existing county health departments in allegheny and chester counties and municipal health bureaus in allentown and york city, as a base. the models’ forecasted revenues and expenses were based on total population covered, area covered, poverty level, and primary care provider availability. then, specific sample program budgets (using the allentown health bureau budget structure because of allentown’s resemblance in population), identify the costs of the specific services created for each of the models. in addition, potential match sources are approximated using the county budgets of the sample counties. each model’s feasibility is discussed using the forecasted direct contributions required by the counties, on a per capita basis, as well as the potential match sources. the models constructed are exhibited on the following table and figure: 114 financial analysis and structural considerations to the problem of rural public health in pennsylvania table 7 model land square miles population percent of persons below poverty (1999) number of pcp13/100,000 staff tri-county health department models (bordered by # # # in figure 1, following) bradford-tioga-wyoming 2,682 132,072 11.83 121.66 137 mifflin-juniata-snyder 1,134 107,023 10.63 70.23 60 bi-county health department models (bordered by • • • in figure 1, following) susquehanna-wyoming 1,220 69,883 11.25 90.15 56 clarion – jefferson 1,258 87,134 13.6 93.85 70 single health department models (bordered by    in figure 1, following) mckean 982 44,884 13.1 74.0 35 monroe 607 148,839 9.0 65.6 73 fulton 438 14,365 10.8 49.1 23 figure 1 13primary care provider. alberto j.f. cardelle 115 based on the characteristics exhibited in table 7, a personnel structure for each model was developed. as the structures demonstrate, the models’ personnel structure differs significantly based on population covered and most importantly on area covered. the tri-county model designed for bradford-tioga-wyoming would cover only 132,000 persons but it would be spread over 2,500 square miles. the large geographic area covered by that model requires the largest personnel. the potential revenue streams of the different models were developed using the total population that was to be served as a multiplier for all the potential revenue sources. in addition, the percent of the population under poverty was used to determine categorical grant revenue since level of poverty is a significant driver of categorical grant revenue. the grant revenues were calculated by giving both factors (population and poverty level) equal weight. table 8 shows the result of the revenue forecasting. the forecasts show that the two tri-county lhds would have multi-million dollar revenue streams, as would monroe county because of the county’s growing population (larger than any of the tri-county departments). all of the model lhds show very high contributions from grants, over 40%. this is because of their relatively small populations, but relatively high level of poverty, in comparison to existing lhds (almost twice the rate – 6.3 to 11.4). this means that these areas would be eligible for a greater amount of categorical grants relative to act 315 and act 12 formula grants. table 8 local health department models bradfordtiogawyoming mifflinjuniatasnyder susquehanna wyoming clarion jefferson mckean monroe fulton forecasted revenue budget $ 2,571,363 2,028,745 1,312,304 1,718,374 842,004 2,775,084 330,312 act 315/12 29% 28% 24% 25% 18% 31% 22% grants 45% 45% 48% 48% 54% 42% 55% user fees 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% direct funds 18% 18% 18% 17% 18% 18% 15% 116 financial analysis and structural considerations to the problem of rural public health in pennsylvania local health department models bradfordtiogawyoming mifflinjuniatasnyder susquehanna wyoming clarion jefferson mckean monroe fulton forecasted expenses budget $ 7,809,675 3,259,014 2,321,767 2,906,886 1,362,989 2,991,986 431,135 administration 28% 27% 26% 27% 24% 27% 15% personal health 23% 26% 28% 27% 33% 27% 60% environmental health 40% 38% 37% 38% 34% 38% 21% public health 9% 9% 8% 9% 8% 9% 5% reconciled revenue budget based on forecasted expenses budget $ 7,359,310 2,894,065 2,083,466 2,609,760 1,209,935 2,484,445 382,151 act 315/12 10% 20% 15% 17% 13% 34% 19% grants 16% 31% 30% 32% 38% 47% 48% user fees 3% 6% 6% 6% 6% 10% 7% direct funds 71% 43% 48% 46% 43% 9% 26% some percentages do not add up to 100 due to rounding. table 8 shows the forecasted expenses in broad categories. these figures were forecasted using population covered, land area to be covered, and underserved medical areas. population covered and land area to be covered were used to forecast all of the expenses categories. underserved areas were used to forecast personal health expenses since the availability of primary care was a significant cost driver of personal health expenses. the forecasts show the clear effect of having to cover large areas. the two tri-county lhds have very large budgets relative to their populations. the bradford-tioga-wyoming model would have a budget of over $7 million. for both tri-county lhds, environmental health expenses are significantly high because of the area to be covered. on the other hand, personal health services are a significant expense in the fulton, monroe, and mckean models because of the relatively low numbers of primary care providers in those areas. table 8 shows a reconciled revenue budget based on the expenses forecasted. as the table shows under the reconciled revenue budget, the local direct contributions increase dramatically so that local contributions now represent over 40% of the budget revenue in all but two of the alberto j.f. cardelle 117 models. the shortfall occurs primarily because most of the models do not generate enough funds under act 315 and act 12 and from user fees, because of their small population size, to cover the expenses related to the large geographical coverage area. this assumption is made because the projections show it is not reasonable to assume that the locales will be able to cover the shortfall from grants or fees. in the largest of the models, the bradford-tioga-wyoming model, the direct funds would now represent 71% of the revenue. these budgets show that the tri-county health departments have very high expenses relative to their act 315 and act 12 funding. for example, the bradford-tioga-wyoming model has close to a $1 million deficit just as a result of the environmental services provided. in comparison, although the mifflin-juniata-snyder model, the monroe model, and the fulton model still have a deficit, the deficits with regard to the environmental services are smallest. the reason for the small deficit in the fulton model is because of its small size; however, the small deficits in both the mifflin-juniata-snyder and monroe models is a combination of the fact that they both have a substantial population within a manageable geographic area. this lowers expenses and maximizes funding. this is the trend throughout the budget calculations. in the models with small populations and large areas, the expenses are not offset by the revenue from grants and fees. the overall result is very high county contributions that make these structures unrealistic at the present funding levels. table 9 on the following page summarizes the overall trends in the revenue and expense analysis of the viable models. the table shows that with the exception of the single county health department models in monroe and fulton, all of the other models represent higher per capita investments than the existing lhds. the large tri-county health departments with large geographical areas and small populations have the highest per capita investments. of the two tri-county health departments, the mifflin-juniata-snyder model is much more feasible because of its smaller geographic area and bigger population. however, even the two-county lhds have relatively high per capita investments. this is again a result of the interaction between population and geography. 118 financial analysis and structural considerations to the problem of rural public health in pennsylvania table 9 direct funds per capita forecasting direct funds per capita program budget roi bradford-tioga-wyoming $40 $60 144% mifflin-juniata-snyder $11 $ 9 341% susquehanna-wyoming $14 $22 208% clarion-jefferson $14 $14 260% mckean $12 $ 8 371% monroe $ 1 $ 3 511% fulton $ 7 $ 5 555% in summary, the analysis predicts that the barrier that most local governments face when initiating a lhd is new funding. although the model budgets represented here are representative of the expenses of a fully functioning lhd that most local areas would not see developed for a few years after inception of a lhd, they demonstrate the need for a combination of significant new funding or significant restructuring of local government funding and budgets in order to make lhds viable. the most critical cost driver for these models is area to be covered. the existing funding stream dependence on population as the sole criteria for the act 315 formula grant signifies that areas that require extensive coverage are at a major disadvantage. in the models that had a critical population and not as an extensive geographic coverage, the models become more viable. the tri-county lhd model covering mifflinjuniata-snyder has local contribution amounts that are closer to the norm as are the single county lhds in monroe, fulton, and mckean counties. however, the other models highlight the problem of using populationbased formula grants for rural areas. conclusions and policy implications the fundamental assumption guiding this research is that a strong local public health infrastructure is a critical component of the health care continuum. however, the national trend, as was demonstrated by the literature review, shows a slow erosion of the national public health alberto j.f. cardelle 119 infrastructure. funding for public health has steadily decreased since the 1980s and this, in combination with the reliance on local funds, has created significant gaps in services and increased vulnerability to the spread of disease. the threat of bioterrorism and the preparedness that has followed since 2001 has highlighted these gaps. the research also showed that, relative to this national trend, the local public health infrastructure in pennsylvania is very weak. with only five county health departments, five municipal health bureaus, and a network of state clinics in the remainder of the state, pennsylvania has the lowest public health workforce in the country: 38 public health workers per 1,000,000 persons. the state’s limited public health infrastructure is despite the existence of legislation (act 315 and act 12) that allows local government to draw down state funds for the operation of local public health infrastructure. the areas of the state with lhds have demonstrated a very good capacity to use both state and federal funding to assemble vibrant health departments that provide an array of public health services. these existing lhds have been able to grow their locales’ capacity to provide public health services by not only using the state formula grants, but also federal and other state categorical health grants. as a result of these grants, these lhds have established lhds that have an average of 420% return on investment. on average, the residents of the locales with lhds contribute less than $5 per capita annually and receive services totaling over $2,000 per person. the existing lhds have been very successful at expanding services without using local funds. nonetheless, there are critical policy and financial issues that locales must satisfy in the process of establishing these lhds. among the most critical aspects faced by locales trying to establish lhds are the need to identify local funds for initial start-up funds and for the financial match of state funds. the financial analysis of the different model lhds open to rural counties of pennsylvania demonstrate that the relatively high levels of local funds required to establish lhds will be a major financial barrier. on average, the three different models analyzed for rural counties, a tricounty health department, a bi-county health department, and a single county health department, require $16 per capita annually in local funds. the principal reason for this financial reality is that rural counties have relatively high levels of the factors that tend to drive expenses up and 120 financial analysis and structural considerations to the problem of rural public health in pennsylvania relatively small populations, the major revenue driver for funding from act 315 and act 12. the analysis showed that primarily population covered, geographic area covered, and the availability of primary care services drive expenses. although rural counties do not have very dense populations, they do cover broad geographic expanses and suffer from chronic lack of primary care services. this means that lhds covering rural counties will have to cover a very large geographic area, a critical cost driver especially for environmental services, and will be pressured to provide personal health services in areas that have a limited number of primary care providers. this will result in very high expenses. this, coupled with the fact that these areas do not quality for high reimbursement rates from formula and categorical grants because of their small population and their relatively low levels of poverty (a major criteria for categorical grants), means that they will have to generate significant amounts of local funds to operate lhds. this trend varies somewhat among the different models, and those models that are geographically large and have small populations have the highest levels of local contribution while those with smaller geographic areas and larger populations tend to rely less on local funding. in the models tested in this research, the tri-county model that included the counties of bradford, tioga, and wyoming, compared with the worst, and the models that included single counties, mckean, monroe, and fulton, demonstrated the most viable financial models. in general, the reality is that the existing funding mechanisms in place for local public health are not appropriate for the realities of rural counties in pennsylvania. although the barriers to a robust public health infrastructure are significant, many of the barriers have a policy basis; therefore, the recommendations below present policy projects that can be accomplished by the commonwealth’s administrative and legislative entities and by local governments to improve the state’s public health infrastructure. 1) additional core funding for act 12 would mean that these models would have additional financing for environmental services. as was demonstrated by the paper, most of the existing lhds and all of the models analyzed have significant deficits as a result of their environmental services which then become part of their act 315 reimbursable expenses. so, in fact, in many respects the limited act 12 funding is resulting in counties having to limit the services they alberto j.f. cardelle 121 can offer under act 315. this additional funding would be critical for rural counties that would have to cover a wider geographic area. 2) a second critical aspect would be the need for start-up funds to be available. the availability of start-up funds would go a long way in lowering the financial threshold that local governments must meet in establishing a structure for the first year of a lhd. the greatest barrier faced by local entities is the identification of funds for the initial establishment of lhd before they can begin to draw down state funds or before they can generate revenues from grants and fees. an initial one-time grant to help locales hire the personnel that act 315 mandates (a director and a personal health and environmental health manager) would allow the local governments a one-year time period to establish the infrastructure and begin to generate revenue from other sources. 3) the legislature should establish secondary formulas for calculating act 315 and act 12 funds for rural counties. formulas that address the cost drivers faced by rural counties should be taken into account. these formulas would allow lhds covering these areas to draw down the additional funds necessary to cover large geographic areas. the formulas could be revised to take into account population density, with an additional allotment for travel expenses as population density decreases. there are many examples of formula grants that take population density into consideration. for example, transportation grants to cities with fewer than 200,000 persons receive a greater subsidy than cities with more than 200,000 persons to offset the lack of local revenue because of low usage (u.s. department of transportation 2003). in the area of bioterrorism, homeland security grants have “updated formulas that better take into account threats, population density, and the presence of critical infrastructure” (ridge 2003). the existing legislation could then create an additional subsidy for countywide lhds that fall below a specified population. most of the counties in the commonwealth have a state health improvement plan (ship). ship is a statewide health plan that places emphasis on improving the health status of populations through planning that addresses the root or underlying causes of premature disease, death, and disability. the plan calls for engaging with organized community122 financial analysis and structural considerations to the problem of rural public health in pennsylvania based health improvement partnerships to coordinate resources in meaningful ways and address local health improvement issues and priorities. these partnerships are made up of coalitions of local social service agencies, health providers, and other community-based organizations engaging in the delivery of health services (padoh 2003). these organizations already have relationships with the state regional offices. a possible model for improving local public health infrastructure in areas that are expansive and lack the critical population levels would be to formalize the link between these partners and local government. local public health services could be offered through community based organizations, but with a central public sector-based coordinating body. therefore, a potential policy option would be a modification to act 315 that would allow local government to use act 315 funds to provide services through community-based organizations and still retain the coordinating and planning responsibility. this would allow for decentralized services and more flexible expense structures. another policy option that also entails a break from the act 315 structure would be the creation of decentralized regional offices of the state department of health. this option would be responding to the national trend of lhd consolidation. baker and koplan (2002), for example, estimate that as a result of a national level consolidation trend, the number of local public health entities across the nation could diminish from 3,000 to an estimated 500-1,000 entities. therefore, under this policy scenario, the option would not be to create more lhds but to use the existing six health regional offices that now cover an average of 10 counties to cover areas that cannot be feasibly covered by a lhd. however, these regional offices would need to be restructured into a network of sub-regional offices that would cover three to four counties. this would allow the state offices to have greater access to these underserved areas, without the need to create new structures. the results show that it is clear on the need for a strengthened public health infrastructure in all of pennsylvania, and in particular rural pennsylvania; however, in areas where the political will exists to create these structures, local policymakers are stymied by the initial financial threshold set for their establishment. policies that help counties attain this threshold would boost political will. alberto j.f. cardelle 123 references allukian, m. jr. 1993. “forging the future: the public health imperative.” american journal of public health 83: 655-60. american public health association. august 2004. “shift in preparedness funds undermines readiness efforts.” the nation’s health. baker, edward, and jeffery koplan. 2002. “strengthening the nation’s public health infrastructure: historic challenge, unprecedented opportunity.” health affairs (millwood) 6:15-27. baker, edward, margaret a. potter, debora l. jones, shawna l. mercer, joan p. cioffi, lawrence w. green, paul k. halverson, maureen y. lichtveld and david w. fleming. 2005. “the public health infrastructure and our nation’s health.” annual review public health 26:303-18. baxter r.j., c.r. steinberg, and j.r. shapiro. 2001. “is the u.s. public health system ready for bioterrorism? an assessment of the u.s. public health infrastructure and its capacity for infectious disease surveillance.” yale journal of health policy law ethics 1:1-21. beitsch, leslie, robert g. brooks, nir menachemi, and patrick m. libbey. 2006. “public health at center stage: new roles, old props.” health affairs 25:911-922. cardelle, alberto. 2004. “assessment of rural public health infrastructure.” unpublished manuscript. center for disease control and prevention. 2004. “public health performance measures.” http://www.ruralpa.org/county_profiles.html (accessed march 1, 2008). center for rural pennsylvania. 2004. “profile of pennsylvania’s rural and urban counties.” http://www.cdc.gov (accessed march 10, 2007). dreicker, m. 2004. plans for a northampton county health department. testimony presented to northampton county council, april 12. frist, william. 2002. public health and national security: the critical role of increased federal support. health affairs (millwood) 6:117-30. gebbie, kristine. 1993. “rebuilding a public health infrastructure.” journal of law and medical ethics 3-4:368-71. gebbie, kristine. 1999. “the public health workforce: key to public health infrastructure.” american journal of public health 5:660-1. gebbie, kristine. 2000. “the public health workforce; enumeration 2000.” washington dc.: health research and services administration. greiner, philip, oppewal sonda. january 27, 2003. “work environment for nurses and patient safety.” testimony institute of medicine. institute of medicine. 2003. “overhaul of government public health infrastructure: new partners needed.” public health reports 1:74-5. johnson, robert. february 2001. “rural public health: issues and considerations.” the national advisory committee on rural health. 124 financial analysis and structural considerations to the problem of rural public health in pennsylvania keanne, christopher, john marx, edmund ricci, and gerald barron. 2002. “the perceived impact of privatization on local health departments.” american journal of public health. 7:1178-82. koplin, allan. 1993. “a national program to restructure local public health agencies in the united states.” j public health policy 4:393-402. levi, jeffery, chrissie juliano, and maxwell richardson. 2007. “financing public health: diminished funding for core needs and state-by-state variation in support.” journal of public health management practice 13:97-102. mays, glen, k. halverson, edward l. baker, rachel stevens, and julie j. vann. 2004. “availability and perceived effectiveness of public health activities in the nation’s most populous communities.” american journal of public health 94: 1016-1026. montgomery county. montgomery county health department program plans. montgomery county government: norristown, pa. 2001. national association of county and city health officials. march 2003. executive director congressional testimony. national association of county and city health officials. 2005. “2005 local profile local health departments.” http://www.naccho.org/topics/infrastructure/2005 profile.cfm (accessed march 10, 2007). o’hara, james. 2001. “west nile virus: success of public health response underlines failure of the system. j urban health 2:392-5. pennsylvania department of health, 2007. “who are we.” www.dsf.health.state.pa.us/ health/site/default.asp (accessed march 13, 2007). pennsylvania department of health, 2007. state health improvement plan. www.dsf. health.state.pa.us/health/site/default.asp (accessed march 1, 2007). potter, margaret, and tiffany fitzpatrick. 2007. “state funding for local public health: observations from six case studies.” public health management practice 13:163168. ridge, tom. 2003. testimony before the senate committee on governmental affairs. march 2003. rotstein, gary, and christopher snowbeck. november 6, 2003. “hepatitis outbreak in beaver triggers shots for nearly 3,000.” pittsburgh post-gazette. turnock, bernard. 2004. “public health what it is and how it works.” boston, ma: jones and bartlett. trevino, fernando, and jeff jacobs. 1994. “public health and health care reform: the american public health association’s perspective.” journal of public health policy 4: 397-406. trust for america’s health. december 11, 2003. “pennsylvania scores 3 out of 10 in new bioterrorism preparedness study.” press release. u.s. department of transportation federal transit formula grants. 2004. 49 u.s.c. 5307, 2003. http://www.cfda.gov (accessed may 5, 2004). microsoft word volume 14.doc commonwealth: a journal of political science  volume 14, number 1  december 2008 special policy issue on public health  2008 ppsa/lorl, pa house of reps. issn 0890-2410 evidence that young children are falling through the safety net: policy implications of hunger and poor health in pennsylvania mariana chilton, phd, mph, drexel university school of public health michelle chyatte, mph, drexel university school of public health edward gracely, phd, drexel university college of medicine abstract hunger is still lurking in pennsylvania. but it can be addressed and treated by policymakers and legislators. this paper gives an overview of the empirical evidence that federal and state policymakers have a direct impact on the health and wellbeing of young children through the statewide implementation of safety net programs such as the food stamp program, women, infants and children supplemental nutrition program, and low income heat and energy assistance. food insecurity, known as the lack of access to enough food for an active and healthy life, is strongly associated with increased hospitalizations, poor child health, developmental risk and maternal depression. the philadelphia grow project research in philadelphia demonstrates that food insecurity and its negative health consequences are prevalent and damaging to the lives of children and their parents in the commonwealth. the continuing food insecurity in philadelphia and pennsylvania is having a damaging affect not only on the wellbeing of young children, but also on the purse strings of pennsylvania. policymakers and legislators have the opportunity to turn this trend around with sound, evidence-based decision making as they carry out their legislative agendas. we end this paper with recommendations for how key decision-makers can have an immediate and lasting impact on improving the lives of low-income families with young children. 56 evidence that young children are falling through the safety net: policy implications of hunger and poor health in pa introduction despite the existence of federal and state nutrition programs, hunger is still lurking in pennsylvania. but it can be addressed and treated. one cannot see hunger with the naked eye, and it may not even manifest as underweight or overweight, but it does have very tangible effects on the body, the psyche, emotional wellbeing, and developmental potential of children and adults. the u.s. department of agriculture (usda) developed a term more than a decade ago to capture this non-visible but harmful form of food deprivation. this term is “food insecurity.” food insecurity is the lack of access to enough nutritious food for an active and healthy life due to economic constraints (nord et al. 2007). food insecurity is particularly dangerous for infants and toddlers because children are in the critical stage of neurological, social, and physical development during their first three years (shonkoff 2003). even the slightest interruption in nutritional intake can derail short and long-term development (chilton et al. 2007; cook and frank 2008; rose-jacobs et al. 2008; walker et al. 2007). in turn, this can cost the united states’ health and education system billions of dollars (brown et al. 2007). the human suffering and the economic burden of food insecurity deserve greater attention from policymakers and legislators. there is now up-todate research that can be utilized for evidence-based decision-making to prevent food insecurity and poor health in the years to come. legislators and policymakers can intervene to address household food insecurity through sound legislation and administrative actions that support low-income families in multiple ways that go well beyond food assistance programs and food program set asides. this paper describes how household food insecurity is associated with increased rates of reported fair and poor health, with higher rates of developmental risk among pennsylvania infants and toddlers, and with greatly increased risk of maternal depressive symptoms. maternal depressive symptoms are important to consider as they have powerful effects on the health and development of the child, as well as the earning potential of mothers. we review the research on these issues, explain the ongoing research from the philadelphia grow project, and we describe policy recommendations that call for increased attention to income support programs such as food stamps, temporary assistance to needy families, and medicaid, as well as deliberate and sustained action to mariana chilton, michelle chyatte, and edward gracely 57 continue to recognize and treat families with young children at risk for food insecurity. the most up-to-date work on household food insecurity research in pennsylvania, and the basis of these results and policy recommendations, comes from the philadelphia grow project (www.growproject.org) which works with parents, scientists, and policymakers to improve early childhood nutrition and to prevent food insecurity among very young children and their families. our work is coordinated among three endeavors: 1) the grow clinic, a multidisciplinary clinic for children with failure to thrive, or undernourished children; 2) the children’s sentinel nutrition assessment program (www.c-snap.org), a national multi-site research study that investigates the impact of public policies on the health and wellbeing of young children; and 3) advocacy related to both research and clinical service. we suggest that each major city in the commonwealth develop their own project similar to the grow project so that: 1) all children with a diagnosis of clinical undernutrition are provided with best practice, fully reimbursed multidisciplinary treatment; so that 2) each city tracks, responds and seeks to prevent household food insecurity for households with young children; and so that 3) both of these areas of activity are readily available to translate to policymakers who rely on evidence to make decisions. addressing and preventing household food insecurity makes economic sense. household food insecurity has been estimated to cost the nation $90 billion a year for increased health-care costs, reduced worker productivity, lost educational attainment, and the cost of maintaining emergency feeding programs. the state of pennsylvania ranks in the top five states as having the highest expenditures associated with food insecurity (brown et al. 2007). using legislation and policymaking decisions to intervene on household food insecurity will not only help to improve the health of children in low-income families, but it will also save the commonwealth significant economic costs. the definition and prevalence of household food insecurity food insecurity, as the lack of access to nutritious food for an active and healthy life, contains at least two dimensions of food deprivation. 58 evidence that young children are falling through the safety net: policy implications of hunger and poor health in pa the first dimension relates to the quantity of food (is there enough?); and the second dimension includes the concept of adequate food for an active and healthy life (is the food of sufficient quality?). the dimensions are captured in an 18-point scale, which asks questions about access, quantity, and quality of food, and the experience of hunger. examples of the usda questions are included below in table 1. table 1: examples of food insecurity questions relating to children “which of the following statements was true for you in the last 12 months?” 1) “we relied on only a few kinds of low-cost food to feed our children because we were running out of money to buy food.” 2) “we couldn’t feed our children a balanced meal, because we just couldn’t afford that.” 3) “the children were not eating enough because we just couldn’t afford enough food.” previous three items include: “was that often, sometimes, or never true for you in the last 12 months?” 4) “in the last 12 months, did you ever cut the size of any of the children’s meals because there wasn’t enough money for food?” 5) “in the last 12 months, were the children ever hungry but you just couldn’t afford more food?” 6) “in the last 12 months, did any of the children ever skip a meal because there wasn’t enough money for food?” 7) (if “yes” to previous question) “how often did this happen almost every month, some months but not every month, or in only 1 or 2 months?” according to the responses in the 18-item interview, households are categorized within a specific food security status suggesting varying levels of nutritional deprivation. the levels of food insecurity addressed in this paper are “household food insecurity” and “child food insecurity.” household food insecurity includes attention to anyone in the household, but does not address a particular individual within the mariana chilton, michelle chyatte, and edward gracely 59 household. it is therefore a composite measure that captures the minimal level of risk for nutritional deprivation. child food insecurity is measured at the individual level, and is often considered to be the most severe form of food insecurity. research has shown that parents generally protect their own children from experiencing food insecurity or hunger (nord and hopwood 2007; hamelin et al. 1999). when the parents can no longer shield their children from hunger, the deprivation can have serious consequences as it penetrates the protective abilities of the adults in the household. the united states government research on food insecurity research focuses on food expenditures and “diversion of financial resources” (rose 1999) that go towards such expenses as housing, utilities, and car payments (rose 1999). thus, food insecurity is strongly correlated with income. food insecurity is also associated with poor nutritional intake (rose and oliveira 1997). nationally, the most updated research carried out be the usda economic research service reported that in 2006, 11.9% of the united states population, or 35.5 million people, had experienced food insecurity at some point during the year, and that 17.2%, or 12.6 million children lived in households that had reported food insecurity. racial, ethnic and gender disparities in the prevalence rates of household food insecurity are a critical concern. female-headed households have a prevalence rate that is three times that of the national average (30.4% vs. 10.9%) (nord et al. 2007). nationally, effects of food insecurity among households with children is even more pronounced when race/ethnicity are considered. according to the usda, the prevalence of food insecurity in households with children in 2006 was highest among black families with 26.4% of families experiencing food insecurity at some point during the year. in the same year, hispanic families experienced a food insecurity rate of 23.8%. these rates are twice the rate of food insecurity among white households with children (11.3%) (nord et al. 2007). as shown above, households with children are at greater risk for experiencing household food insecurity, as the prevalence rates for households with children are at least 6% above the national average. these prevalence rates and the disparities among these rates of food insecurity have not changed since the year 2000. 60 evidence that young children are falling through the safety net: policy implications of hunger and poor health in pa making the case for pennsylvania: relationships between food insecurity and wellbeing the overall prevalence rate of household food insecurity in pennsylvania is 13.3% (nord et al. 2007). this is close to the national average. a recent report published by feeding america shows that in pennsylvania 16.8% of children under the age of 18 lived in food insecure households in 2006 (cook 2007). stated differently, one in six children in pennsylvania exhibits an increased risk of poor health, poor physical development, and limited school readiness because of a lack of adequate food. the problem of food insecurity is even more pronounced in philadelphia, the state’s largest urban city. it is difficult to get local rates of household food insecurity without concerted effort and substantial funding to glean a representative sample. the survey instrument that measures food deprivation with a very limited measure is the community health data base (chdb) of the philadelphia health management corporation. the chdb is a community household phone survey of residents in southeastern pennsylvania that is carried out every two years. it “oversamples” low income and elderly households in order to gauge true population levels of health-related information. the survey includes only one question taken from the usda household food insecurity short form (consisting of six questions) (blumberg et al. 1999). the question asked is: “did you ever have to cut the size of your meals because you did not have enough money to buy food?” responses to this question have been used by advocates in the philadelphia area as an indicator for “risk” of food insecurity. for philadelphia, the population-based prevalence rate of food insecurity among all households is 13.6%, or 151,200 individuals. for females, it is slightly higher, and for households with children, the prevalence rate for 2006 was 16.5% (community health database 2006). among households with children, the racial and ethnic disparities in food insecurity seen at the national level also exist in the philadelphia area, with 22.3% of latino households with children reporting having cut a meal versus 16.5% of black and 10.4% of white households (see table 2, following page). mariana chilton, michelle chyatte, and edward gracely 61 table 2. example health characteristics of philadelphia households with children by 200% of federal poverty line and by status of “cutting a meal” (indicator of risk for food insecurity) representative of all philadelphia residents source: grow project analysis of community health data base, phmc, june 2006 all philadelphians regardless of income* below 200% poverty* variable did not cut meal n=1100 84.4% cut meal due to lack of money n=203 15.6% p value did not cut meal n=514 75.3% cut meal due to lack of money n=168 24.7% p value race/ethnicity black latino white 47.9% 17.5% 34.6% 51.2% 27.1% 21.7% <.0001^ 55.3% 25.9% 18.9% 53.8% 30.2% 16.0% .4710 adult diagnosed with a mental health condition 12.6% 21.3% .0010^ 15.6% 22.6% .0360^ adult was sick but did not seek care due to cost 8.1%5 37.2% <.0001^ 9.9% 35.1% <.0001^ adult self-rated health fair/poor 18.6% 46.4% <.0001^ 26.1% 48.2% <.0001^ * balancing weights used to determine appropriate population-based percentages ^ p value indicates that the differences rates are statistically significant at the alpha < .05 latino and black households are disproportionately burdened by food insecurity. this is likely due the disproportionate burden of the experience of poverty. when the all-philadelphia population-based sample is restricted only to those living at 200% of the federal poverty line and below, the racial and ethnic disparities in risk for food insecurity almost disappear; the differences become statistically insignificant. among low-income families, the rates for whites, latinos and blacks hover in a common zone between 21% and 27%. in summary, there are disparities by race and ethnicity among all of the households with 62 evidence that young children are falling through the safety net: policy implications of hunger and poor health in pa children at risk for food insecurity in philadelphia and nationally due to the higher overall prevalence poverty among african american and latino households. overall, however, these racial and ethnic disparities of differences within these populations become statistically insignificant in this philadelphia dataset. it is likely, then, that the poor (not a particular racial/ethnic group) are disproportionately burdened by food insecurity. on the other hand, between those who were at risk for food insecurity and those who were not at risk, the differences in health conditions did not disappear when restricted to the low-income population. in table 2 (previous page), we show that among those who had cut a meal due to lack of money were almost two times more likely to report their health as fair/poor than households who had not cut a meal (48.2% vs. 26.1%). adults from households with children that had cut a meal reported significantly higher rates of having a diagnosis of a mental health condition compared to those who had no reported food problems (22.6% vs. 15.6%). finally, among those that had cut a meal, the rate of reporting on having been sick, but not seeking medical care due to cost, was three times higher than those households that did not cut a meal (35.1% vs. 9.9%). each of these differences in health conditions was statistically significant. as this population-based philadelphia data show, risk of food deprivation is an important risk factor to consider when measuring lack of access to care and poor health outcomes. making the case for children: food insecurity, child health and development everything from cognitive development, fine and gross motor skill development, to educational attainment and psychosocial disorders are linked to a child’s nutritional status. overall, scientific research demonstrates that the lack of an adequate, nutritious diet can have long lasting effects upon a child’s developing mind and body (rose-jacobs et al. 2008; cook and frank 2008; walker et al. 2007). the philadelphia grow project participates in the national multisite study entitled the children’s sentinel nutrition assessment program (c-snap). as a multi-site study of families who have children under the age of three, the c-snap study demonstrates that children who lived in mariana chilton, michelle chyatte, and edward gracely 63 households that are identified as food insecure were two times more likely to have reported fair/poor health, and were 30% more likely to be hospitalized than children who were in food secure households (cook et al. 2004). children who are food insecure are more likely to have delayed cognitive abilities, behavioral issues, psychosocial dysfunction, and continuing poor health as they mature into adulthood (cook et al. 2006). compared to children in food secure homes, school-age children in food insecure homes were more likely to have seen a psychologist, have lower grades, and were reported to have greater difficulty interacting with their peers (alaimo et al. 2001). a more recent study has shown that even the mildest forms of food insecurity are associated with poor performance on standardized tests in reading and mathematics (jyoti et al. 2005). food insecurity is thus an important factor in a child’s performance in school, and later, a significant factor in their earning potential. for this reason, it is important to intervene in a child’s life early on, before they reach school age. the national c-snap study has found that infants and toddlers who lived in households that reported food insecurity had a 1.73 times greater odds of developmental risk than infants and toddlers in households that were food secure. these findings remain consistent even after controlling for other factors such as mother’s educational attainment, child’s medical history, and child’s birth weight. developmental risk is an indicator of delayed emotional cognitive, physical, and social abilities necessary for a child’s full developmental potential (rose-jacobs et al. 2008). researchers in education and economics have demonstrated that by the time a child reaches kindergarten, if they are behind in reading readiness, it is already almost too late for the child to catch up with their peers (heckman 2007, 2004). in philadelphia the educational attainment of the children should be of serious concern, as one in three children is already behind in reading preparedness by the time they reach kindergarten (blue ribbon commission 2007). while there are many social and emotional factors associated with readiness for school, one particular factor – household food insecurity – is preventable. research on the welfare support systems demonstrates that the food stamp program, the women, infants, and children’s supplemental 64 evidence that young children are falling through the safety net: policy implications of hunger and poor health in pa nutrition program (wic), housing subsidies, and heating assistance can have a positive impact on protecting children from nutritional deprivation and from poor health. the c-snap study has also shown that children who were in families that received wic benefits compared to eligible families who did not receive wic had better reported health, and were also less likely to be underweight (black et al. 2004). when a child is underweight compared to other children their age, the risk for poor health and development are far greater (walker et al. 2007; chilton et al. 2007). similar results are found for food stamp receipt. the c-snap study found that families who were cut off (sanctioned) from food stamp benefits in the previous year of being interviewed were more likely to be food insecure and to experience higher rates of fair/poor health compared to families whose food stamp receipt was stable [neault et al. 2004; frank and c-snap study group 2006; children's sentinel nutrition assessment program (c-snap) 2007]. other income support programs, over and above the food assistance programs, can also assist in protecting a child’s health and food insecurity status. families that received housing subsidies, compared to children in households that were on a waiting list or had not received subsidies but were eligible, showed overall healthier weights for age (meyers et al. 2005). such research shows that food insecurity is intricately related to housing stability and child wellbeing (kushel et al. 2006). similarly, families that received energy assistance in the form of the low income heat and energy assistance program (liheap) demonstrated better nutritional wellbeing than children in eligible households that did not receive liheap assistance. those that did not receive liheap but were eligible had higher odds of being hospitalized compared to children whose households received liheap assistance. this interplay between liheap and child health as it relates to food insecurity demonstrates that families often must trade off paying for food or paying for heat, and that intermittent exposure to unheated or halfheated homes can be associated with illness to the point of hospitalization (frank et al. 1996; frank et al. 2006). in addition, if a child does not have proper nutritional intake, their bodies are less capable of fighting off infection (bhaskaram 2002). mariana chilton, michelle chyatte, and edward gracely 65 overall, this research provides compelling evidence that federal, state, and city programs and policies can have a strong impact on the health and wellbeing of young children. making the case for mothers: food insecurity and maternal depression the relationship between food insecurity and mental health has also received a great deal of attention in the past decade. a groundbreaking study by alaimo demonstrated that, after controlling for income, education, and health status, household food insecurity was related to increased risk for dysthemia and suicidal ideation among adolescents (alaimo et al. 2002). the relationship is similar among mothers of young children. food insecure women have described experiences of alienation and anxiety, coupled with worries about losing their children and family strife (hamelin et al. 2002; hamelin et al. 1999). in a nationally representative sample in canada, individuals from food insecure households reported higher odds of depression and stress (vozoris and tarasuk 2003). among homeless or poorly-housed women in massachusetts, food insecurity was associated with higher rates of posttraumatic stress disorder due to adverse childhood experiences (weinreb et al. 2002). among african-american women who chronically utilize food pantries in philadelphia, anxiety, violence and stress were strongly associated with the experience of hunger (chilton and booth 2007). other c-snap studies demonstrate household food insecurity is associated with a 260% increased risk for maternal depressive symptoms (casey et al. 2004; zaslow et al. 2008; bronte-tinkew et al. 2007). maternal depression is central to the health and wellbeing of young children, as it is associated with greater probability of poor development, and behavioral and emotional problems in children (williams and carmichael 1991; beardslee 1989; zuckerman and beardslee 1987; downey and coyne 1990; petterson and albers 2001). these associations of poor child development, poor child health and problematic behavior are generally due to disordered parent-child interactions, ineffective parenting, or to marital distress (reis 1988; 66 evidence that young children are falling through the safety net: policy implications of hunger and poor health in pa leadbeater and bishop 1996; hall and farel 1988; chavkin and wise 2002; romero et al. 2002). policy interventions related to access to health insurance coverage have shown substantial effectiveness in reducing risk for prolonged maternal depression (kahn et al. 1999; murray et al. 2003; bramesfeld et al. 2006; melfi et al. 1999; melfi et al. 2000). but policy interventions related to maternal depression and food insecurity interplay are not limited to health care access, and sustained access behavioral health care treatment, but also to such food programs as the wic program. the csnap study has demonstrated that not only does the wic program show an association with healthier weights and reported health in very young children, but it is also associated with a decreased risk of maternal depressive symptoms (casey et al. 2004). overall, while the effects of food insecurity can be devastating to the health and development of young children, and to the depression of their mothers, there are policy interventions that could mitigate the effects. to begin with, however, it is important to consider the magnitude of the associations between household food insecurity and poor health at our local level. food insecurity in philadelphia — results from the philadelphia grow project the philadelphia grow project participates in the multi-site children’s sentinel nutrition assessment program (c-snap) study, carrying out research in the emergency department of st. christopher’s hospital for children. in philadelphia, our grow project results show that, over the course two and a half years of data collection (february 2005 june 2007), 13% of young children requiring emergency care live in food insecure homes. methodology the children’s sentinel nutrition assessment program – philadelphia (c-snap) conducts emergency room interviews at st. christopher’s hospital for children in northeast philadelphia. four to six days per week, interviewers approach families with children who are less than 36 months old. infants that are critically ill or injured are mariana chilton, michelle chyatte, and edward gracely 67 excluded from approaches. in order to qualify for the interview, the caregiver must have knowledge about the child’s household and have not participated in a c-snap interview in the previous six months. interviews are carried out in both english and spanish. institutional review board approval was granted by drexel university and st. christopher’s hospital for children. for this study, the sample included families without private health insurance. of the 2,061 interviewed over 14 months, 246 (11.9%) received private insurance or had an unknown insurance status. our restriction to those without private insurance serves as a proxy for low income, as those on medicaid or public insurance qualify with certain low-income criteria, and those without insurance are generally lowincome, underemployed or ineligible for reasons such as immigration status. there were 115 (5.6%) participants who were not born in the united states. these were excluded from the analysis because of the variability and uncertainty of their eligibility for public assistance programs. between january 2005 and june 2007, 1,694 families with young children fit the criteria for this study. the c-snap interview survey includes a variety of measures of demographic information such as race/ethnicity, educational status, employment and household participation in public assistance programs. it also asks questions about children’s health, household food security, maternal depressive symptoms, and parental assessment of their child’s development. the u.s. food security scale is a reliable, valid, 18-item scale score that measures household food security over the previous year (bickel et al. 2000). households are defined as food insecure if they answer more than three responses to the 18 questions in the affirmative, acknowledging the lack of available, nutritious foods or if they could not afford food (nord et al. 2006). the parents’ evaluations of developmental status (peds) is a screening instrument approved by the american academy of pediatrics and validated for children aged four months to seven years to determine an array of developmental areas (glascoe 2000; brothers et al. 2008). eight developmental areas are assessed including language, fine and gross motor skills, behavior, selfhelp, school, and social/emotional development using the following responses: yes, no, or a little. scores are determined based upon the age of the child. respondent depressive scores (most often mothers) were calculated after asking three questions using an instrument that has 100% 68 evidence that young children are falling through the safety net: policy implications of hunger and poor health in pa sensitivity, 88% specificity, and 66% predictive value (kemper and babonis 1992). if the respondent answered “yes” to two of the three questions, the depression score was marked as positive. at the end of the interview, the child’s weight and length are recorded and verified using the computer system in the emergency room at st. christopher’s hospital for children. data analysis for univariate analysis of categorical variables we utilized chi-square tests; for numeric variables we used unpaired t-tests and mann-whitney u tests. the statistical level employed for each was p < 0.05 to determine associations between variables. to assess the association between household food insecurity and poor child health, developmental risk, and maternal depressive symptoms, we conducted logistic regressions using spss version 15. confidence intervals were set at 95%. based on results of the univariate chi-square analyses, and based on evidence in the literature, the following variables were controlled in the logistic regression analyses: maternal age, race/ethnicity, breastfeeding, and infant birth weight. results in the sample of 1,694 infants and their parents, 13% (n=268) reported household food insecurity (see table 3, following page). prevalence of household food insecurity among the top three race/ethnic groups in the sample (white, black, and latino) did not differ statistically (p = .6510). although the sample does not indicate a significant difference in food insecurity between race/ethnic groups, it is important to highlight that among the general population (without consideration of income), differences in food insecurity between racial/ethnic groups exist in philadelphia, as seen previously in table 2 (page 61). mariana chilton, michelle chyatte, and edward gracely 69 table 3. characteristics of household food insecurity identified at st. christopher’s hospital for children c-snap-philadelphia sample january 2005 june 2007. n=1,694 variable food secure households n=1,426 69.2% food insecure households n=268 13.0% p value mother’s age in years: mean (sd) 24.71 (6.114) 25.45 (6.518) .0360+^ mother marital status: married single 14.5% 85.5% 11.2% 88.8% .1570 race/ethnicity:* black latino white 36.2% 52.0% 11.8% 33.5% 55.0% 11.5% .6510 maternal education incomplete high school complete high school/ged college graduates 33.3% 38.8% 22.9% 44.++6% 34.8% 20.6% .1610 child health insurance: public none 97.8% 2.2% 98.5% 1.5% .4700 mean child age months (sd) 14.3 (9.81) 14.3 (9.37) .9600++ low birth weight (<2500 grams) 13.1% 12.5% .7930 child breastfed 34.5% 41.8% .0220^ household participation in public assistance: tanf food stamps wic subsidized housing subsidized child care 42.1% 58.5% 81.2% 11.4% 17.8% 56.0% 68.5% 86.6% 14.5% 17.9% <.0010^ <.0020^ .0370^ .1750 .9700 note: all tests were chi-square test unless otherwise indicated. + mann whitney u test, ++ unpaired t-test. * the race/ethnicity category only includes the top three races/ethnicities within the csnap philadelphia sample and does not include mixed-hispanic or asian populations due to the small sampling of those populations. ^ statistical tests indicate a significant relationship between the variable and food insecurity among the c-snap-philadelphia sample. 70 evidence that young children are falling through the safety net: policy implications of hunger and poor health in pa there was not a statistically significant difference in marital status between the food secure and the food insecure mothers. there also were no significant differences between the groups on health insurance status (public insurance or no insurance), or child’s birthweight. those families that were food insecure were more likely to breastfeed, compared to the food secure households: 41.8% and 34.5% respectively, p = .0220. overall, households that reported food insecurity reported higher rates of participation in tanf, food stamps, and wic, as expected. there were no differences overall in the utilization of subsidized housing and child care. table 4. multiple logistic regression on household food insecurity, reported child health, and maternal depressive symptoms c-snap-philadelphia sample: january 2005 june 2007 outcome adjusted odds ratio 95% confidence interval p value multiple logistic regression* reported child health fair/poor household food secure 1.00 referent referent household food insecure 1.49 (1.04, 2.11) .028^ developmental risk (peds)** household food secure 1.00 referent referent household food insecure 1.83 (1.31, 2.55) .000^ maternal depressive symptoms household food security 1.00 referent referent household food insecure 3.07 (2.31, 4.09) .000^ * all multiple logistic regression analyses controlled for birth weight, race, breastfeeding, and maternal age to predict child health, developmental risk, or maternal depressive symptoms. **peds is the parents’ evaluation of developmental status. ^ indicates significance p < .05. mariana chilton, michelle chyatte, and edward gracely 71 results of the multiple logistic regressions shown in table 4 (page 70) reveal that food insecurity is significantly associated with a child’s reported health status, parental report of developmental risk, and reported maternal depressive scores after controlling for race/ethnicity, maternal age, breastfeeding, and birthweight. among the households that were food insecure, parents were 1.49 times more likely to report their child in fair or poor health than those parents living in food secure households (p = .0280). in other words, for children in food insecure households, there was a 49% greater risk of being reported to be in fair or poor health. young children who were in households that reported food insecurity were 1.83 times more likely to be at risk for developmental delay than children in food secure homes (adjusted odds ratio 1.83, p < .0001). finally, mothers who lived in food insecure households were three times more likely to report maternal depressive symptoms than mothers who lived in food secure households (p < .0001). discussion local data on infants and toddlers and their mothers in philadelphia demonstrate that the overall percentage of household food insecurity among households that utilize the emergency department of st. christopher’s hospital for children is at 13%, that food insecurity is strongly associated with an increased rate of fair/poor child health, developmental risk, and maternal depressive symptoms. what is happening in philadelphia is similar to the national trends in food insecurity and poor child health, developmental risk and depression. maternal depression also compounds the negative effects that food insecurity and poverty already have on children (petterson and albers 2001). these associations remain consistent after controlling for several variables known in the food insecurity literature as having potential confounding effects such as birthweight, maternal education level, and insurance status. there are several plausible explanations for these associations. food insecure infants and toddlers primarily live in poverty where their parents may struggle to not only provide housing, health care, and child care, but also adequate nutrition for their children. lack of access to adequate, quality food in philadelphia’s poor neighborhoods may also exacerbate poor health outcomes for these infants (chilton 2004; chilton et al. 2004; 72 evidence that young children are falling through the safety net: policy implications of hunger and poor health in pa chilton and dacosta 2008). moreover, poor nutrition caused by food insecurity can limit a child’s ability to fight off infections, and maintain overall good health (cook et al. 2004; cook et al. 2006; casey et al. 2001; skalicky et al. 2006). maternal depression may be related to inability to work and sustain gainful employment at a living wage, which in turn could negatively affect a woman’s potential to purchase enough healthy food for her household (zaslow et al. 2008). childhood hunger is a preventable condition. our results suggest that it is damaging the developmental trajectories of philadelphia’s youngest children, and truncating the potential of their parents. legislators and policymakers can have a profound impact if they intervene early in a child’s life. nobel laureate james heckman and his team have shown that the best investments in human potential are those made in the earliest years of life. the highest return on investment early in life is found in greater academic achievement, improved health and reduced cost to the health system, and better earning potential (heckman 2006). investment through social programs at early ages literally “multiplies” skills (heckman 2007). there are interventions that help mitigate the effects of food insecurity such as: the federal food stamp program, medicaid, the supplemental nutrition program for women, infants, and children (wic), and head start programs. for example, food stamps helped reduce the child poverty gap by almost 20% in 2004 (united states department of agriculture 2005). children who receive food stamps were 26% less likely to be food insecure than those children who are eligible but did not receive food stamps (lee et al. 2006). children enrolled in medicaid who also utilized food stamps from birth have lower health care costs associated with anemia and severe undernutrition (lee et al. 2006). families who received food stamp assistance between kindergarten and first grade demonstrated better examination results on standardized math tests compared to families who stopped receiving food stamp benefits (frongillo et al. 2006). food assistance and income support programs are sound investments. for every dollar spent on food stamps, almost two dollars are spent in the local economy. the beneficial effects of wic have been shown to save direct and indirect medical costs from $1.71 to $3.00 for every dollar spent on wic (devaney and schirm 1993). enrollment in mariana chilton, michelle chyatte, and edward gracely 73 these programs can improve infant health outcomes and can begin to break the cycle of poverty. these programs provide families assistance with access to food and intervention programs that can help facilitate infant development. while food stamps provide essential support to families – especially young children – they still cannot provide enough protection against food insecurity and poor nutrition. our most recent “real cost of the healthy diet research” where we surveyed 16 stores in the philadelphia area according to the thrifty food plan (tfp) food lists, reveals that even if a family was receiving the maximum allotment of food stamp dollars based on the supposed cost of the “thrifty food plan” families would be short on average $192 dollars per month, or $2,300 dollars per year. that is, what the tfp of the food stamp program supposes is $1 worth of food, is actually 74 cents worth of food. with the rising cost of food and fuel, this will likely get worse (chilton and cook 2008). despite, and perhaps in consideration of some of the weaknesses of the safety net programs, there are several things that state legislators and policymakers can do to intervene for low-income families at nutritional risk. recommendations for legislative and administrative intervention policy change to improve the heath of infants and toddlers requires focus on issues of food insecurity, as well as economic security and access to health care. each of these recommendations can have immediate and long-term impacts on the health and wellbeing of children, as young children are in the most important and critical stage of development where a boost in nutrition access, or in mental health care access can have a magnified impact on a child’s present and future and health. economic support programs  the pennsylvania department of labor and industry should continue to work to continue to increase the minimum wage. this would increase buying power, and increase access to nutritious food for the whole family. this is urgent especially because of the steep rise in the costs of fuel and food. 74 evidence that young children are falling through the safety net: policy implications of hunger and poor health in pa nutrition programs  ensure every last food stamp dollar is utilized. the department of welfare could step up efforts to increase enrollment in food stamps by providing more venues through which to determine eligibility. food stamp outreach could be performed at city health centers and hospitals, and in locations that reach citizen children of immigrants and other eligible immigrant families.  bolster the amount of food stamps families can receive by increasing access to the low income home energy assistance (liheap). if a family is deemed eligible for liheap, the calculation for their food stamp allotment will increase. new york and massachusetts are doing this already. pennsylvania could follow suit.  the appropriate state agencies should ensure that food stamp and wic offices have extended operating hours to accommodate working families.  consider supplementing the food stamp dollar. for instance, new york city is implementing “health bucks,” where for every $5 spent on produce, the food stamp recipient receives an extra food stamp dollar from the city. this enhances money spent on healthier foods, and increases purchasing power.  ensure that all eligible day care centers are receiving the federal entitlement benefits of the child and adult care food program (cacfp). this can be done by increasing outreach to child care agencies and ensuring they have the tools necessary to apply for cacfp benefits. access to income support programs  the department of welfare should enhance outreach and marketing of the compass system (commonwealth of pennsylvania access to social services) to make it widely available and known to all social service and health care agencies within the state.  the department of welfare should consider categorical eligibility for a variety of programs – that is: if a family is eligible for tanf and food stamps, they should automatically be considered eligible for other programs administered by dpw. the burden of mariana chilton, michelle chyatte, and edward gracely 75 administrative paperwork, and need for documentation should also be minimized, especially since dpw already has access to multiple databases that contain income and other essential financial information.  the department of welfare and the governor should ensure that all liheap dollars get to the families with young children who need these federal subsidies the most for the full extent of the cold season, and should consider keeping liheap open all year round as do other states. health care settings and early intervention  the state and city health departments can remove barriers to mental health care for mothers of young children by integrating behavioral and mental health programs into primary care settings.  the department of welfare and city health departments should collaborate more effectively to reduce wait times between positive screen for depression and access to the first appointment with a mental health care provider.  ensure that early intervention programs, such as childlink and elwyn, have the training necessary to ask about and respond to needs related to food insecurity and parents’ participation in the food stamp and wic programs.  encourage all medicaid-participating pediatricians to ask if a parent needs help with buying food, and ensure proper food stamp and wic outreach. incorporate statewide data tracking system for food insecurity and undernutrition  the department of health should expand their mandate for growth screening and data management tracking for school age children to all children to include children in child care and pre-school.  the department of health should collaborate with other agencies to integrate the usda food security short form (blumberg et al. 1999) into an annual state tracking system on the health and wellbeing of young children. 76 evidence that young children are falling through the safety net: policy implications of hunger and poor health in pa  consider expanding the state supported kindergarten initiative, which seeks to teach kindergarteners about farms and healthy food, to younger children in preschools and day care centers. coordinate efforts across state agencies  the governor’s inter-agency council on food and nutrition was created to address poor nutrition and related conditions of poverty. the council consists of representatives from six executive agencies: aging, agriculture, community and economic development, education, health, and public welfare. this council currently has no funded staff to administrate the work of this council, nor report on the implementation of recommendations found in the governor’s blue print to end hunger, 2007. we recommend ensuring that there is a fully funded, full-time staff person and sufficient funding 1) to allow this group to carry out its mandate; and 2) for the public to participate in the development of related programs so that they can hold pennsylvania legislators accountable for improving the health and nutritional wellbeing of young children. conclusion this study shows that food insecurity and infant development is a concern not just for those in public health or medicine, but also for policymakers that can improve the immediate health and well-being of the youngest residents in pennsylvania. our research shows that food insecurity is also significantly associated with a child’s health status, child development, and maternal depression. public health, medical, and economic research have made tremendous strides within the past decades to understand the complex nature of poverty, poor nutrition and health status. there is no one easy solution to breaking the cycle of poverty and poor child health, but there are known interventions that can mitigate and prevent household food insecurity. food stamps and other nutrition programs such as wic, cacfp, liheap, housing assistance and cash assistance act together as a health buffer for small, developing children. nutrition programs and income support programs are an excellent federal and state investment. they not only help to close the poverty and education gap, but they also facilitate the physical, cognitive, social, and cognitive development of children. investing in young children now will mariana chilton, michelle chyatte, and edward gracely 77 make the commonwealth a state that can enjoy the benefits of having helped young children who are alive and developing before our very eyes, and the benefits of having promoted their full potential and capabilities. references alaimo, k., c.m. olson, and e.a. frongillo, jr. 2002. 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"maternal depression: a concern for pediatricians." pediatrics 79 (1):110-7. microsoft word volume 14.doc commonwealth: a journal of political science  volume 14, number 1  december 2008 special policy issue on public health  2008 ppsa/lorl, pa house of reps. issn 0890-2410 a health promoting hospital: a strategy in the re-design of the u.s. health care system matthew g. masiello, md, mph office of community health, memorial medical center windber research institute, windber, pennsylvania introduction in 2006, memorial medical center of the conemaugh health system, located in southwestern pennsylvania, became the first hospital in the united states to apply and be accepted as a member of the world health organization health promoting hospital network. there are over 35 european national and regional networks and more than 700 european hospitals participating in this international partnership. all member hospitals are asked to focus on promoting the health of patients and staff, make a commitment to the development of a formal health promotion infrastructure, and to organize and coordinate community and environmentally based health promotion/disease prevention programs. the united states health care system is experiencing many challenges and the development of a united states health promoting hospital initiative should be a national priority. this pennsylvania-based, healthpromoting hospital may serve as a model program in this effort. health promotion and the world health organization the world health organization (who) health promoting hospitals (hph) european pilot project took place from 1993 to 1997. this initial effort has grown to become the international network of health promoting hospitals (garcia-barber 2002). working within this network, the member hospitals have resources available to them to develop a corporate philosophy, which concentrates on three areas of health promotion (hp): changing the organization to a health promoting setting which will allow for a more comprehensive approach to health 126 a health promoting hospital: a strategy in the re-design of the u.s. health care system promotion and disease prevention from the perspective of hospital patients and staff; promoting the health of the community; and promoting the health of the environment (groene 2002). the origins of this world health organization health promoting hospital (who-hph) initiative were established in international recommendations first outlined in the 1986 ottawa charter for health promotion. this hph network is now a multi-hospital organization that sponsors international workshops and educational forums to support the development of hospital based health promotion programs and initiatives (pelikan 2001). as defined by the who, health promotion allows for the establishment of a process of enabling people to increase control over, and improve, their health. as member countries of the who-hph network, many european, asian, and australian and canadian hospitals have spent the better part of the past two decades identifying and reorganizing themselves as health promoting hospitals. the in-country networking among regional and national hospitals has allowed for a sharing of ideas, programs, and resources. health promotion and the united states health care system over the past two decades, numerous references in medical and public health literature have commented on the need for hospitals, health care systems, health care professionals, and public health institutions in the united states to evaluate their present strategies or develop new strategies to address the health issues of the communities in which they serve (olden and clement 2000; ginn and mosley 2004; and hancock 1999). hancock states that hospitals “must develop a community conscience rather then an institutional loyalty” (hancock 1986). poland comments on the lack of scientific rigor regarding the presence and degree of analysis of hospital and community based collaborative efforts (2005). in 2004, the institute of medicine reported on the need for united states medical and nursing schools and schools of public health to develop a more symbiotic relationship to better address the health issues of the community (institute of medicine 2004). similarly, and related to the role of the individual health care provider, the american academy of pediatrics endorsed the need for a more defined health promotion (hp) matthew g. masiello 127 relationship between the community pediatrician and the community (american academy of pediatrics 1999). health care costs continue to rise in the united states, and the money spent on health care is significantly higher as compared to other developed countries. this expenditure has failed to demonstrate any significant gains in the nation’s ability to increase life expectancy, reduce infant mortality, or increase access to a health care system. significant public health issues, such as the present obesity epidemic, the epidemic of gun violence, and the inability to prevent as well as treat chronic illnesses, lack a formal national mandate or strategy. the recent concerns by the u.s. congress regarding the absence or lack of well-defined charitable giving policies of non-profit hospitals also comments on the less than optimal health promotional strategies by many of our larger health care systems (pear 2006). there have been numerous reviews on the status of united states hospital-based hp activities and the hp components used by these hospitals (olden and clement 2000). ginn has outlined the steps necessary to become a hph (ginn and moleley 2004). however, the united states health care and public health literature fails to identify a united states hospital or health care system that has formerly adopted the comprehensive world health organization (who) definition of “health” as being “the state of complete physical, mental, and social well-being and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity.” until recently, it has been difficult to identify a united states health care system that has embarked on a formal approach to establish a comprehensive health promotion/disease prevention (hp/dp) environment for hospital staff, patients, or community. historically, disease prevention and health education have served as marketing strategies for health care systems in their competitive attempts to promote clinical programs benefiting from the growth in preventable chronic diseases. a health promoting hospital in the united states – a model program the following review of the health promoting hospital activities of a united states-based, regional tertiary health care center is timely. in 1997, memorial medical center, of the conemaugh health system 128 a health promoting hospital: a strategy in the re-design of the u.s. health care system (chs), located in southwestern pennsylvania, embarked on a process to develop and propagate a more formal public health advocacy profile. the chs is a multi-hospital health care system serving a predominately rural population. in the early years of its existence, this public health activity took place in the form of a child and adolescent health and wellness council. in 2004, the board of directors expanded the role of this initiative and created an office of community health (och). at that time the physician director of the och was also identified as a vicepresident in the health care system. with growing support from the hospital administration, a regional managed care system, and various other funding sources, additional staff and programmatic activities have been realized. currently, the och has a staff of three public health professionals, three registered nurses, an educator, and an administrative assistant. numerous other health professionals are associated with the och through contractual arrangements. over the years, nursing, social service, educational, and pharmacy graduate school students have served as public health interns. the following review comments on the adult, child, and community hp/dp activity of this u.s. world health organization health promoting hospital. a model u.s. world health promoting hospital and children from 1999 to the present, the och at memorial medical center, and the school districts of the region, have partnered in the development of school based health promotion/disease prevention (hp/dp) programs. programmatic monitoring and evaluation are key components of these initiatives (windsor 2004). primary and secondary health data, specific to the schools and community of cambria county, the largest county in the region, have been gathered and analyzed over this period of time. based on this data and with community participation, health issues were discussed and prioritized. this och has now been able to introduce evidence-based health promotion/disease prevention programs to all of the public schools and the majority of the private schools in the county (cdc 2004; pennsylvania youth survey 2002, 2004, 2006). school-based injury prevention programs allowed for the participation of over 10,000 children, or 90%, of the identified children matthew g. masiello 129 based on age and program requirements. this injury prevention initiative now includes a teen component, scheduled child passenger safety clinics, and school-based bike safety clinics. an increase in knowledge and a decrease in risky behaviors have been documented, as well as an increase in the number of adolescents wearing seat belts and safety gear. in 1999, the och introduced the evidenced-based olweus bullying prevention program to the schools of the county. approximately 20,000 children have participated in this program with a documented improvement in the reporting of bullying and an increasing number of children coming to the assistance of a classmate during an observed act of bullying. we also documented an increase in the number of students feeling more comfortable and enjoying their time in school. in 2006, a regional managed care organization granted approximately $2 million to the och. this funding will allow for the expansion of this bullying prevention/cessation program throughout western and central pennsylvania, potentially affecting the lives of over 200,000 children and the adults they encounter on a daily basis. in addition to the abovementioned initiatives and, again, based on local health data, programs addressing the elevated childhood dental cavity rate and the obesity epidemic have been developed and introduced into the community. with funding from the pennsylvania tobacco fund, the och developed an innovative program that allowed for the development of a combined car passenger safety seat and smoking cessation program. in the attempt to cumulatively evaluate the various school based hp/dp programs of the och, as well as assist the schools in developing federally mandated school health councils, the och developed a coordinated regional school health council (wic 2004). the school districts of the tri-county area actively support this effort. a model u.s. world health promoting hospital and adults in 2004, when the hospital board of directors approved the development of an och, the scope of activity expanded beyond children. the mandate was to develop a more formal infrastructure to address the health issues of adults and community. a county-based center for disease control behavioral risk factor survey was used as resource to gather primary health data. this health data allowed for the identification and prioritization of health needs from a larger segment of the county 130 a health promoting hospital: a strategy in the re-design of the u.s. health care system population. in 2005, a formal worksite wellness program was initiated for the 4,000 employees of the principle system hospital. incentivized employee health risk assessment (hra) surveys were made available, with the data compiled and analyzed by trained public health professionals from this hospital based och. a campus-wide tobacco ban was a key component of this initiative. a tobacco ban policy guide was developed as part of this hospital-based worksite wellness effort. at the request of approximately 60 united states hospitals and several european health care professionals and hospitals, the guide has had a level of distribution greater then originally expected. subsequent to these requests, an on-line survey was developed to monitor the use, and any potential impact, of this hp/dp tobacco prevention/cessation guidebook. the public health analyst from the och has developed numerous online, internet-driven surveys to monitor and evaluate programmatic activities. this service, for a nominal fee, has been made available to other hospital and community groups. a worksite wellness program, for local businesses, is now available for implementation. with the oversight of this och, a comprehensive employee bloodscreening program has also been developed. this screening activity, which serves as a free benefit to the hospital employee, has been extensively analyzed, especially as it relates to follow up by the primary care physician. a cadre of monitored, nutritional, and fitness programs have been developed and made available to the hospital employees. transfat has been eliminated from the hospital cafeteria and other dietary changes have been made due to the efforts of the och and in-hospital partners. continued monitoring of the employee hra surveys, as well as the hospital based worksite wellness programs, has documented costs as it relates to unhealthy employee practices as well as the potential for savings secondary to positive changes in employee behavior and health. specifically, a potential savings of $300,000 to $700,000 per year may be realized with a decrease in the number of smoking breaks by the hospital staff. a formal report from the och has been made available to the hospital administration summarizing the programmatic activity of the worksite wellness program. this report included the results of the employee hra survey, with an analysis of participating employee risk factors. it also comments on the potential for savings and the need for continued support and expansion of the program. matthew g. masiello 131 a model u.s. world health organization health promoting hospital and the community in 2004, a system-wide acommunity benefit inventory@ was designed and implemented by the och to better identify those hospital based individuals and groups who were offering a varying array of formal and informal health and wellness programs to the community (boscarino 2004). as is typical in most hospitals, these hospital-based individuals or groups essentially function as independent entities and usually exist without any formal strategies to qualitatively monitor or measure for positive change in behavioral or health impact. thus, a health care system may find it difficult to convey a clear and concise message to the community of exactly what the system is contributing to the community in the form of wellness/educational activities or as charitable giving. this availability of this inventory was considered timely by those in hospital finance who are now assigned to gather this type of activity secondary to congressional oversight of non-profit hospital community giving. as a response to the “brain drain” phenomenon experienced by many rural communities and the difficulty hospitals and communities have in attracting young physicians to a community, the associate director of the och, along with a community physician developed an innovative and popular mentoring in medicine (mim) program. this summer “internship program” allows college and pre-medicine students to participate in an organized physician office and hospital-based activity that exposes the students to the real world of medicine. it also allows the hospital the opportunity to encourage these young physicians of the future to return to practice medicine in the community in which they were raised. a stipend is provided to relieve the student of the anxiety of finding summer employment. if the student expresses an interest to return to the area, the hospital will also provide financial support for school loan repayments. a public health internship program is also available that allows nursing, pharmacy, social work, educational, and public health students the opportunity to have a “hands-on” experience in formal community based, health promotion programmatic activities. one former intern was recently accepted as a center for disease control fellow. 132 a health promoting hospital: a strategy in the re-design of the u.s. health care system the och has produced multiple programmatic reports and an annual community health profile and needs assessment, which includes measurable impact data, comments on the health issues of the region, and summaries of the hospital and community-based hp/dp programs developed to address these issues. the programs of this och have been presented at national and international forums. in recent years, a new and critical role for the health care system has come to fruition in the area of community (disaster) preparedness. in the local planning process, there is often an adequate level of emergency management expertise but with minimal public health input. the local emergency medical service system has recently accepted an och prepared school and business all hazard plan, which is based on current state and national guidelines. discussion and recommendations on becoming a hph the development of a united states-based health promoting hospital infrastructure, modeled after and in partnership with the whohph initiative, would be a viable and potentially cost effective approach to address the many concerning issues of a struggling united states health care system. a health promoting hospital could serve as both a community and regionally based public health program and policy advocate. in addition, this level of public health positioning by regional hospitals could dramatically enhance the efficiency and impact of local, state run public health offices (weber 2007). based on the history and success of this united states-based hospital, located in johnstown, pennsylvania, in advancing a health promoting hospital environment, the following recommendations for a hospital setting are offered for review and consideration:  identify a public health trained individual to coordinate the overall hp/dp plan for the hospital/health care system. more credibility, as well as community and institutional support, may be recognized if this individual is also a physician. preferably, this individual should report directly to the chief executive officer of the hospital/hospital system. matthew g. masiello 133  develop a programmatic/research partnership with a local school of public health.  identify hospital funds or outside grant funding that will allow for the hiring of support staff.  identify focus groups, and school and community based health surveys that will allow the hospital to improve its knowledge of the health issues of the community.  support the development of institutional and community-based health advisory committees. the direct involvement of the hospital administrative leadership and board of directors will more likely allow for an enhanced propagation of a hp/dp agenda (institute of medicine 1997).  incorporate public health theories and practices, as well as the whohph standards and strategies, into the design and implementation of the hp/dp programs and work towards official membership in the who-hph network.  incorporate monitoring and evaluation tools into the program design process and attempt to identify a public health professional or institution that will assist in this effort.  develop an inventory of hospital-based individuals and groups offering wellness and educational programs to the community as well as inventory any monies offered to the community as charitable giving.  develop a chartable giving policy committee consisting of representatives from the hospitable administration, board of directors, and hospital-based public health representatives. summary this successful hospital-based office of community health should serve as a model program for other health care systems that wish to be identified as health promoting hospitals (hph). this och has been successful in assisting in the development of positive behavioral and health change for large segments of the population in its service area. it 134 a health promoting hospital: a strategy in the re-design of the u.s. health care system has also been successful in identifying costs associated with identified health risks of the hospital employee population as well as savings associated with well developed worksite wellness initiatives. the ultimate goal of a health promoting hospital would be to move from the historic, non-monitored, non-evaluated hospital, or community wellness and educational programs, to formal health promotion/disease prevention initiatives, which measure impact and are sustainable. the practices and recommendations made available by the who-hph network and the related goals of healthy people 2010 should also serve as benchmarks and important resources to united states hospitals and health care systems. the success of this united states-based program should prompt some level of national discussion regarding a new but necessary approach to a struggling united states health care system. having a formal health promotion oriented approach to health care in all of those united states hospitals receiving state or federal support should be the ultimate national health care goal. a united states partnership with the world health organization health promoting hospital network would also serve as a timely and positive international effort. references academy of pediatrics. committee on community health services, pediatrics vol. 103, no. 6, june 1999. boscarino, j.a., and j. chang. “nontraditional services provided by nonprofit and forprofit hospitals: implications for community health.” journal of healthcare management, vol. 45, no.2, march/april 2000, p. 132. center for disease control behavioral risk factor survey. cambria county-2004. garcia-barbero, m. “health promotion in hospitals: evidence and quality management. country policies, systems and services, division of country support,” who regional office for europe. may 2005, p. 1-2. ginn, g.o. and c.b. moseley. “community health orientation, community-based quality improvement, and health promotion services in hospitals.” journal of healthcare management, vol. 49, no. 5, sept/oct 2004, p. 303-306. groene, oliver. “health promotion in hospitals from principles to implementation.” “health promotion in hospitals: evidence and quality management.” country policies, systems and services, division of country support, who regional office for europe. may 2005, p. 2-17. matthew g. masiello 135 hancock, t. “creating health and health promoting hospitals: a worthy challenge for the twenty-first century.” international journal of health care quality assurance incorporating leadership in health services, vol. 12, no.1, 1999, p. 14-17. hancock, t. “creating a healthy community: the preferred role for hospitals.” dimension, sept. 1986, p. 22-23. institute of medicine. “improving health in the community: a role for performance monitoring.” national academy press 1997: p. 40. institute of medicine. “who will keep the public healthy? educating public health professionals for the 21st century.” the national academy press, 2003. olden, p.c. and d.g. clement. “the prevalence of hospital health promotion and disease prevention services: good news, bad news and policy implications.” the milbank quarterly, vol. 78, no. 1, 2000, p. 136-142. weber, david. “american exceptionalism.” hospitals and health networks. april 24, 2007. pear, r. “nonprofit hospitals face scrutiny over practices.” new york times, sunday, march 19, 2006. pelikan, j., k. krajic, and c. dietscher. “the health promoting hospital (hph): concept and development.” patient education and counseling. vol. 45 (4), 2001, p. 239-243. pennsylvania youth survey b cambria county. poland, blake, et al. “working at the margins” or “leading from behind?:” a canadian study of hospital-community collaboration. health and social care in the community, vol. 13(2), p. 125-135. wic. child nutrition and women infant child reauthorization act of 2004. public law, p. 108-265. windsor r. evaluation of health promotion, health education and disease prevention programs, 2004, p.14-16. world health organization. www.euro.who.int/aboutwhopolicy. 14 fmla in pa: analysis of family and medical leave policy in the state jennie sweet-cushman chatham university this paper details the impact of the federal fmla, as well as the complex web of additional protections many states have. not all americans enjoy the same rights to family and medical leave because 40% of them do not live in states that have written additional protections into state law. pennsylvania is one such state. this paper offers a case study of the policy impact on citizens—particularly women, minorities, and the poor—in pennsylvania, one of 21 states where lawmakers have not expanded their coverage beyond that of federal law. since its enactment more than 20 years ago, the family medical leave act (fmla) has allowed millions of americans to maintain job security while they tend to the important needs of their families. however, there are limits to the breadth of the federal law and many states have either subsequently passed their own leave protections that expand coverage in many ways or had pre-existing laws that went further than the federal law. this paper details the impact of the federal fmla as well as the complex web of additional protections many states have. critically, not all americans enjoy the same rights to family and medical leave because 40% of them do not live in states that have written additional protections into state law. therefore, this paper also offers a case study of the policy impact on citizens—particularly women—in pennsylvania, one of 21 states where lawmakers have not expanded their coverage beyond that of federal law. family medical leave laws signed into law in 1993, the federal family medical leave act (fmla) guarantees eligible employees up to 12 weeks of unpaid leave per year for 15 jennie sweet-cushman health conditions, a new child, or military service. at the conclusion of the approved leave, eligible employees are guaranteed that their job (or one of comparable position) will have been held for their return. employees that work in a business with more than 50 workers are eligible if they have worked for the company for at least a year, they have worked at least 1,250 hours during the previous year, and if they work at a location with at least 50 employees within a 75-mile radius. this generally means that part-time and self-employed individuals are not likely to be eligible. while these protections are for both men and women, the law was celebrated as being the first national effort to acknowledge maternity leave (albeit unpaid) for women. prior to passage, 34 states had some version of law that governed family and/or medical leave, though 11 of them applied only to state employees (commission on family and medical leave 1996). only 12 states and the district of columbia had laws that required employers to offer maternity leave (irwin & silberman 1993; waldfogel 1994; women’s legal defense fund 1993). however, it should be noted that both large and/or unionized workplaces oftentimes had maternity and medical leave policies that were, in some cases, more generous than state law required (waldfogel 1999). this continues to be the case. impact of fmla following the passage of the fmla, a series of government and academic studies aimed to determine whether the objectives of the law had been achieved. three major conclusions were drawn about the effectiveness of the law in allowing workers greater access to job-protected leave. the first conclusion pertained to the number of americans who became eligible for leave protections under the new law. the commission on family and medical leave reported that as many as two-thirds of employees were employed by fmla-covered employers (1996), but this statistic is misleading. of this number, some employees did not work the required oneyear total of 1,250 hours and still others had not been employed for the required one year. ultimately, perhaps only as few as one-half of workers were eligible (ruhm 1997). mothers fared even worse, as far fewer were eligible for maternity leave under the fmla. it was estimated that 31% of working women of childbearing age had been with their employer the one year required for eligibility and a mere 19% of new mothers met eligibility requirements (klerman and leibowitz 1994). considering the spattering of state laws and private employer policies that granted leave for one reason or another, in some form prior to implementation of the fmla, it is unlikely that a 16 fmla in pa: analysis of family and medical leave policy in the state significant percentage of the workforce suddenly experienced a dramatic new access to protected leave. in fact, only 7% of workers that took a type of leave covered by the fmla in 1994–1995 reported that they were able to do so by exercising fmla benefits (ruhm 1997), the remainder had other benefits they were able to use. additional findings were discussed following adoption of the law. the second conclusion was that as employers adjusted their benefit packages to bring them in line with the new law, which two-thirds report having done (waldfogel 2001), they faced little hardship in having done so. the commission on family and medical leave stated that 90% of covered employers reported that the changes “had no noticeable effect on business performance or growth” (1996, in ruhm 1997, 181). a survey of employers done in 2000 also reflected these positive reviews (waldfogel 2001). waldfogel (1999) estimated that it cost an employer only about $250 per year for each employee that takes leave. third, the law did increase the frequency of leave taking. the increase was found particularly at medium-sized firms that would have been less likely to have had preexisting policies, and particularly for new mothers (waldfogel 1999). an important consequence of the law is that it also institutionalized rights to parental leave, not just maternal leave; under the law men now have the same rights to paternity leave as women do to maternity leave. another possible positive externality is the effect on women’s employment. since the 1960s, there has been a steady increase of the number of women who return to the workplace after they have a child. fifty-five percent of new mothers are back in the workforce within a year of their child’s birth (u.s. bureau of the census 2010). in summation, while the fmla offered a modest expansion of rights for workers, it did provide both more coverage and more usage for working women while imposing negligible costs to employers. much of the reflection on the law’s early impact argues that this does not amount to a tremendous impact. however, it should be noted that most scholars observe (ruhm1997; waldfogel1997; 1999), as did the legislation’s supporters in the 1990s, that the law was not ever designed to be far reaching. the limited scope and strength of the law is a major contributor to the limited impact it had. where the law had holes or inadequacies in coverage to meet the needs of the contemporary workforces, it was left up to states to compensate in the form of more expansive state laws. more comprehensive state laws today, many of the original state laws that governed workers’ family and medical leave needs before passage of the fmla are superseded by 17 jennie sweet-cushman the more comprehensive federal law. other states have passed laws that add to or expand the protections in the federal law. in addition to the federal fmla, 29 states have taken steps to expand the coverage for their own workers by adding additional benefits and/or expanding which employees are eligible for protections in their states. table 1 identifies the additional benefits states have enacted and in which states these more expansive laws apply. table 1 additional leave protections in current state law by type and state type of expansion expansion states application to smaller employers (fewer than 50 employees) dc, me, or, vt (family leave) ca, il, me, ne, ny, or, ri (military leave) ca, ct, ia, la, nh, wa (maternity leave) ca, mn, nc, vt (small necessities leave) broader, more-inclusive definition of “family” ca, ct, dc, hi, me, nj, or, ri, tn, vt, wa, wi additional military protections ca, ct, il, in, me, mn, ne, ny, oh, or, ri, wa pregnancy as specific disability ca, ct, hi, ia, la, mt, nh, wa “small necessities” allowances ca, co, dc, il, la, ma, mn, nv, nc, ri, vt domestic violence coverage ca, co, fl, hi, il, me, nm, nc, or, wa temporary disabilities ca, nj, ny, ri paid sick leave ct, dc adoptive parents co, ky, md, ma, mn, ne, ny, vt, wi compiled from www.nolo.com (2014) while each state that has enacted more comprehensive legislation has a different formula for what is covered and for whom, there are some general categories in which state laws have become more comprehensive than federal law. these categories are discussed below. 18 fmla in pa: analysis of family and medical leave policy in the state definition of family in some states, what constitutes a family is redefined by including domestic partnerships, children of domestic partnerships, grandparents, or in-laws. in washington, d.c., which has the most inclusive definition, “family members include parents, spouses, children, domestic partners, parents-in-law, grandchildren, children’s spouses, siblings, siblings’ spouses, children with whom the employee lives and whom the employee has responsibility for, and a person with whom the employee shares a residence and committed relationship” (district of columbia 1990). in new jersey, which also passed a fmla in 1993 (njfla), the definition of eligible immediate family coincides with the federal definition, but extends it slightly to include a spouse’s parents (state of new jersey n.d.). these states also have more flexible options when it comes to company size and leave availability. additional military benefits leave in the case of having a loved one on active duty is only available in 12 states, the most inclusive being minnesota where if the employee’s grandparent, parent, legal guardian, sibling, child, grandchild, spouse, or fiancé is being deployed or coming back from deployment, or if they have been injured while deployed, they are entitled to limited leave. other states, such as maine, entitle domestic partners to leave. some set limits on how many days of leave are permitted depending on the length of the deployment (it usually has to be over 90 days) (nolo.com). pregnancy as specific disability legislation regarding disability due to pregnancy is generally vague. states such as connecticut, hawaii, or montana give “reasonable” leave due to pregnancy, while other states put a time limit on length of leave, commonly over at least three weeks. recognizing pregnancy in itself as a disability has been a contentious issue since 1976 when the supreme court ruled in general electric co. v. gilbert that discrimination on the basis of pregnancy alone did not equate to discrimination based on sex and was, therefore, not necessarily illegal. congress responded in 1978 with the pregnancy discrimination act (pda), but the law has limitations when it comes to accommodations pregnant workers may need to continue working. national public radio recently reported that the equal employment opportunity commission has received 46% more pregnancy-related complaints over the last 14 years (national public radio 2014). the philadelphia eeoc district office (which includes coverage of the entire state of pennsylvania) 19 jennie sweet-cushman registered more than 300 complaints in that time period—second only to the miami district office (united states equal employment opportunity commission 2014). as a result of the increased claims, the commission issued a detailed clarification of how the pda should be applied in cases of disability and other issues of leave in july 2014 (eeoc 2014). small necessities some states offer their employees with children a few hours per year of unpaid leave for parent/teacher conferences or even for involvement in their children’s schools. domestic violence coverage employees of certain states are allowed some unpaid leave to get social, family, and medical services, such as medical or legal assistance, or enhance the security of their homes after a violent assault. maine and washington employers are required to grant leave to employees who have a family member that has been attacked (nolo.com). temporary disability california, new jersey, new york, and rhode island have temporary disability insurance and paid family leave that entitles employees to a percentage of their wages, previously withheld from their paychecks through payroll deduction, much like unemployment insurance. paid sick leave connecticut and the district of columbia offer paid sick leave dependent on how many employees a company has and how many hours the employee has worked. in d.c., this leave also includes domestic violence or family leave. leave for adoptive parents while recent interpretations of federal law recognize adoptive and other caretaking scenarios as parenting relationships covered by fmla (u.s. department of labor 2010), these protections are not extended to employers who are not required to offer protections or private companies that offer their own set of benefits that go above and beyond. however, some states award adoptive parents the same rights to leave as birth parents in all cases, as long as the company offers parental leave to biological parents. 20 fmla in pa: analysis of family and medical leave policy in the state some states, namely new york and nebraska, make provisions regarding the child’s age. no state extends these additional benefits to step or foster parents. family medical leave in pennsylvania twenty-one states offer no additional family-leave protections. pennsylvania is one of the more populous of these states. because there are currently no additional rights other than those afforded by the federal law, many of the state’s working women and their families have fewer protections than their peers in many other states. paid leave the largest disadvantage pennsylvanians have is that state law does not mandate that private employers provide paid leave for its employees. while many private employers and municipalities do offer paid sick, family, and/or parental1 leave (united states bureau of labor statistics 2013), they are not required to do so by federal or state law. so, while workers may be eligible for leave under fmla, exercising it may be limited by financial considerations. indeed, research shows that leave is much less-exercised by women with lower levels of education or women who are single parents (han, ruhm, and woldfogel 2009). take into consideration the 24% of pennsylvania families with household income that is below 200% of the federal poverty level (fpl)2 (pathways pa 2009). many of these families (21%) have at least one parent with a low level of education, making it difficult for them to secure jobs with wages high enough to make ends meet. lower-income jobs, such as health care aids, retail or fast food workers, and child care providers, are disproportionately held by women. in fact, corporation for enterprise development recently reported that 21% of pennsylvanians face “asset poverty,” meaning they would not have the resources to survive for up to three months of sustained loss of income. single women are 40% more likely than single men to be asset poor in pennsylvania—which is a greater disparity than most states (corporation for enterprise development 2014). for individuals and families who are living paycheck-to-paycheck, any reduction in household income caused by an unpaid leave can seriously affect already precarious household budgets. taking an unpaid leave simply is not a viable financial option. the city of philadelphia passed a law in 2011 that required city contractors to allow their workers to accrue paid sick leave. a strong effort in 2013 to expand this requirement to all private city employers with more than five employees fell just short of passage when mayor michael nutter 21 jennie sweet-cushman vetoed the legislation, which had passed the city’s council by a vote of 11-6 (national partnership for women and families 2014). nonetheless, the efforts prompted 17 members of the pennsylvania general assembly to introduce house bill 1807, the leave policy act, which would prohibit “political subunits” in the state from enacting legislation requiring private employers to offer paid leave of any kind (pennsylvania general assembly 2013). the bill was referred to the full house by the labor and industry committee in february 2014, but has not been voted on—likely because the 2014 election of democrat tom wolf would mean the measure would face a veto. adult caregivers for many working women, it is not only their own health or the birth of a child that requires them to weigh their options for being off work. increasingly, adult children are faced with providing care for aging parents. according to the pennsylvania department of aging, there are 1.3 million “informal caregivers” in the state who invest 1.4 billion hours of unpaid time in caring for the elderly in the state (2013). historically, this burden has fallen on the adult daughters (and presumably daughters-in-law) of the aging individual who needs care (smith 2004), many of whom are still in the process of caring for their own children’s needs. according to dr. lynn martire and her colleagues of the university of pittsburgh’s department of psychiatry, this burden is not just financial, but psychological as well. this dual demand on working women exacerbates stress-related depression, especially as it complicates their other roles as employees, wives, and mothers (2000). the state offers some help with the financial burden with a meanstested program—the pennsylvania caregiver support program—that reimburses qualified applicants for some of the expenses associated with caretaking. eligibility for the program is income-based and uses a sliding scale cost sharing approach that may reimburse caretakers up to $500 a month for expenses such as uncovered medical costs or up to $2000 for home renovations (pennsylvania department of aging 2014). governor corbett’s 2014–2015 budget proposal requested over $40 million in additional funds for programs for the state’s elderly (pennsylvania department of aging 2014), but it is not clear how much, if any, of those funds will be directed into the caregiver program. presently, the program is aiding only around 7,000 caretakers, and not all of them are eligible for financial support, but rather counseling or referral services. a decision, then, to take unpaid time off under the fmla to care for an aging parent, can mean financial hardship in precisely the same way faced by new parents or those with personal or immediate family medical needs. 22 fmla in pa: analysis of family and medical leave policy in the state small necessities not all the demands on working mothers are long term or overly significant. several states recognize that working parents have smaller needs that require their attention during work hours, like parent teacher conferences and regular trips to the pediatrician. often referred to as a “small necessities” law, a bill that would have protected a worker’s right to a handful of hours leave time to attend to these things was recently introduced in pennsylvania. hb1673, the parental involvement leave act was introduced in 2013 to “[provide] statewide uniformity regarding vacation and other forms of leave mandated by political subdivisions, for parental involvement leave and for civil remedies.” the legislation was referred the house labor and industry committee but has not come up for any votes. the legislation’s original prime sponsor, dan miller (d-allegheny) has since withdrawn his original sponsorship, but in august, 2013, wrote his colleagues to encourage them to support the legislation’s goal of enhancing parental involvement in their children’s school by requiring pennsylvania employers guarantee parents paid leave time to attend parent-teacher conferences and other related functions (pennsylvania general assembly 2014a). miller reintroduced the legislation in the 2015–2016 term as hb 849, picking up 19 cosponsors, but with no republicans among them, the bill seems unlikely to have much success in the republican-controlled legislature (pennsylvania general assembly 2015). this type of legislation generally only provides a few hours per year for worker’s to access protected leave, and it is exclusively unpaid. it does allow parents to participate in important events in their children’s lives. definition of family many pennsylvanians are also limited in their access to fmla protections by the law’s narrow definition of “family.” the obama administration has expanded the interpretation of the law to include coverage for same-sex parents of children that lack a biological relationship with the child (u.s. department of labor 2010). this extension of the law should serve to directly impact the potential for job-protected parental leave for parents in pennsylvania’s estimated 24,481 same-sex households (u.s. department of commerce 2012). the supreme court struck down the defense of marriage act (1996) in their 2013 ruling on united states v. windsor, which had—in part—prevented the extension of federal benefits to individuals in samesex marriages. for now, this means that fmla protections are extended to couples with marriages that are legally-recognized in the state in which they work (department of labor 2013), though there is an expectation that the ruling will ultimately extend federal protections to all legally-married 23 jennie sweet-cushman couples regardless of their state of residence or work. it is also presumed that many of these protections will be extended to pennsylvanians in samesex unions since the may 2014 legal decision3 that made same-sex marriage legal in the state. what is less clear is how the limited definition of family will apply to same-sex couples as the interpretation of the law expands because there is no state law prohibiting workplace discrimination. void of a more inclusive state law, committed couples or couples with marriages performed in other states will fail to have protections that extend to family members other than a spouse or children (e.g., in-laws, grandchildren, siblings). military some states’ laws recognize a family member’s military deployment as a “condition” sufficient for granting leave, known as a “qualifying exigency.” a member of the armed forces’ (to include the national guard and reserves) spouse, parents, or children (of any age) would be entitled to this leave under certain conditions requiring their absence from work (e.g., child or parent care, post-deployment activities) (u.s. department of labor 2013). pennsylvania’s more than 56,000 military personnel (department of defense 2014) were only given this recognition by a federal expansion of fmla that took effect in early 2013 (department of labor n.d.). the state’s thousands of iraq and afghan war veterans would not have been covered under this expansion. also, despite the obama administration’s 2010 repeal of the don’t ask, don’t tell (dadt) policy, same-sex spouses or partners as well as extended family of deploying military personnel continue to have no guaranteed right to leave, particularly in states that do not recognize these unions. some pennsylvania military families who fall through this particular crack might be helped by a state program run through the state’s department of military and veterans affairs. using both public funds and private donations, the military family relief assistance program (mfrap) offers grants of up to $3,500 to qualifying service members or family members to help with costs associated with hardships due to deployment4—including child care and other loss of employment income (pennsylvania department of military and veterans affairs 2014). however, mfrap is a small program and awarded only $104,000 to 33 approved applications in 20125, very few of which described circumstances that would have been governed by an expanded fmla (pennsylvania department of military and veterans affairs 2103). veteran support groups in the nonprofit sector also offer services that presumably could help families struggling with leave-related issues. 24 fmla in pa: analysis of family and medical leave policy in the state domestic violence and sexual assault according to the national network to end domestic violence, an average of more than 2,400 adults and children receive services for domestic violence (e.g., shelter, counseling) in pennsylvania each day and there are, on average, 33 calls to hotlines every hour (national network to end domestic violence 2013). these statistics are only a portion of individuals coping with domestic violence as they do not reflect victims that do not seek outside help. in 2013, an additional 30,000 pennsylvanians sought help as victims of sexual violence (pennsylvania coalition against rape 2013). again, many of these crimes go unreported and/or victims do not actively seek support in their recovery. in their lifetimes, one in four women will experience domestic violence (pennsylvania coalition against domestic violence 2013), and one in three will be exposed to sexual abuse of some kind (woar n.d.). these victims of both domestic violence and sexual assault face discrimination and problems obtaining needed time off in their jobs (swanberg, ojha, and macke 2012; brownmiller 2013). pennsylvania’s employers are required to provide potentially critical workplace safety under the occupational safety and health act of 1970 (osha), and employees would qualify for leave under fmla if their absence would be to seek medical treatment for or to recuperate from injuries due to an incidence of domestic violence or sexual assault. state statutes also provide work leave for a related subpoena or court appearance (swanberg, ojha, and macke 2012). however, victims of both domestic and sexual violence face far more than physical wounds they may have received in these attacks. scholars who study the aftermath for victims of these crimes describe a long list of psychological concerns, as well—including post-traumatic stress disorder (ptsd), anxiety, insomnia, anger, self-harm, and high rates of depression (armour et al., 2013; humphreys and thiara 2003). there are also more practical considerations, like victims needing to find a new place to live and, in some cases, establishing credit in their own names. these scenarios and others demonstrate how crucial the need to maintain employment can be to future empowerment of the victim. according to the pennsylvania coalition against domestic violence (2014), while the state legislature is considering several pieces of legislation that support victims in other ways (e.g., laws to strength protection for children in environments of abuse), there is currently no legislation being considered in the state that would offer greater or more expansive employment protection for victims of either domestic or sexual violence. as a result, the vast majority of pennsylvanians have no leave protections under these dire circumstances. however, employees within the city of 25 jennie sweet-cushman philadelphia do have additional protections that were passed by the city council and took effect in 2009. the ordinance provides up to eight weeks6 of unpaid leave to workers of any philadelphia employer7 who are victims of not only domestic or sexual violence, but also stalking. the ordinance allows an employee to take time off to tend to physical or psychological injuries, seek help from a domestic or sexual violence organization, receive counseling, relocate, or seek legal assistance for themselves or a member of their immediate family (city of philadelphia 2009). however, there is some concern that this ordinance will be overturned by legislation passed by the state house of representatives in march 2014 (h.b. 1796) that would prohibit municipalities from requiring certain benefit mandates from private employers (pennsylvania general assembly 2014c) similar to the leave policy act mentioned above. when the general assembly recessed in july 2014, h.b. 1796 was still under consideration in the senate, but no action had been taken. temporary disability and pregnancy the social security administration provides income replacement to workers who become disabled or ill and are not able to work for 12 months or more (social security administration 2012). shorter-term leave needs would be (for those covered) governed by fmla, but would be unpaid unless the employer offers additional benefits or the absence is covered under a state or municipal statute that offers paid time off for short-term needs. many employers do offer short-term disability insurance programs that serve this function. the important distinction is, however, that while these insurance programs will provide compensation, they do not offer job protection. while most states have statutes that extend the fmla job protection to short-term disabilities, pennsylvania does not (j. a. gallagher, personal communication, may 5, 20148). theoretically an employee in pennsylvania could be approved for short-term disability payments through the insurance program they participate in but lose his or her job while on leave. a few states (e.g., california, new york) have incorporated a paid leave component into their state leave laws that requires employee contributions to a short-term disability program, effectively removing any additional burden from employers because the funds come from employees not employers. examples from the handful of states that have implemented these programs indicate that employees take the leave they need more often and for longer duration because they are receiving compensation when they do. in california, for example, single mothers are among the biggest beneficiaries of this program (koss 2003). short-term disability issues are particularly complex in the context of a pregnancy and the issue remains unresolved in states, like pennsylvania, that 26 fmla in pa: analysis of family and medical leave policy in the state have not made clear statutes defining pregnancy as a disability. according to legal scholar jeanette cox, recent expansions of the americans with disabilities act (ada) have allowed for more conditions that may be concomitant with pregnancy—like shortness of breath or back pain— to be protected under the law (and thus recognized by fmla, as well). however, courts continue to bar extension of fmla protection to pregnant workers suffering from ada-recognized disabilities because pregnancy is not recognized as being a condition from which disabilities can stem. as cox states, “the primary remaining justification for concluding that pregnant workers may not obtain ada accommodations is that pregnancy is a physically healthy condition rather than a physiological defect (2012).” pennsylvania has been named one of the 10 worst states in the country for pregnancy discrimination (national partnership for women and families 2008). without specific state law that defines pregnancy as a disability, expectant mothers in pennsylvania who are in some way limited from performing their job responsibilities by side effects of normal pregnancies cannot receive reasonable accommodation under the ada or exercise fmla rights. without either of these protections, these women face potential repercussions by their employers when their job performances are affected. as a result, the national women’s law center reports that many women are either forced to take a reduction in hours without pay, quit, or are fired from their jobs when employers refuse to make even small accommodations that are extended to disabled workers9. even when nondisability conditions associated with pregnancy are recognized, employers may insist employees take fmla leave intermittently. considering the law allows for only 12 weeks of protected leave, leaves during pregnancy can erode the amount of time available to a new mother once her baby is born (nwlc 2013). in 2014, the philadelphia city council voted to amend the philadelphia fair practices ordinance of 2013 to include protections for pregnant workers in the city that require city employers to make reasonable accommodations (council of the city of philadelphia 2014). testimony in support of the amendment drew attention to the fact that 53% of philadelphia children are being raised by single working mothers, women who could not afford to suffer job and income loss because of pregnancy (council of the city of philadelphia 2013). rep. mark painter (d-montgomery) introduced h.b. 1892, the pennsylvania pregnant workers fairness act, in february 2014. the legislation is designed to eliminate discrimination and ensure reasonable workplace accommodations for workers whose ability to perform the functions of a job are limited by pregnancy. the bill was referred to the labor and industry committee, but no further action has been taken (pennsylvania general assembly 2014b). 27 jennie sweet-cushman conclusion and policy prescriptions in conclusion, it is obvious that pennsylvania’s leave laws and supporting statutes provide some of the nation’s most meager protections for workers. in the 20 years since the passage of the federal fmla, a majority of states and municipalities around the country have expanded the law’s scope with statutes of their own. regrettably, in nearly every way, other states have chosen to expand fmla to offer additional rights and protections for their citizens; pennsylvania has not. in recent years, it is the state’s political climate that can be blamed for inaction. the democratic minority in the general assembly continues to introduce legislation that would expand leave, but such legislation has received virtually no republican support. to this point, increased partisan polarization makes compromise unlikely on even modest expansions, let alone more dramatic proposals such as a paid leave policy for the state. however, one need only look to neighboring new jersey to identify a much more worker-sensitive environment. two large cities in the state— newark and jersey city—passed municipal laws that would mandate employers to allow employees to accrue paid days off. east orange is considering a similar measure, and five municipalities passed citizeninitiated ballot measures in fall 2014 that require employers to facilitate paid time off in their communities. the associated press reports that, as a result, new jersey lawmakers are seriously considering legislation that would make the requirement apply to the entire state, and there appears to be enough support in the legislature to accomplish it (mulvihill 2014). the state’s governor, governor chris christie, however has expressed his reluctance to require businesses to provide paid time off to employees in the state, despite opinion polls that show more than 80% of citizens support government-mandated paid sick time (dawsey 2015). meanwhile, pennsylvania has taken no action. this inaction has created a work environment in the state that is less protective of workers than those in many other states. most significant, this analysis finds that these gaps in protection and rights are most obvious and under-coverage has the biggest impact for the state’s most vulnerable citizens. for example, this report identifies how low-income families, single parents, and individuals living on meager budgets cannot afford to take unpaid leave. employees straining under the burden of caring for elderly loved ones (and perhaps children concurrently) have far too many limitations in their leave options. victims of domestic or sexual violence, face further hardships in trying to manage serious needs that arise out of their victimization when it puts their jobs in jeopardy. pregnant women can still be discriminated against when their pregnancy affects their job performance. pennsylvania can and should do better. 28 fmla in pa: analysis of family and medical leave policy in the state the following four recommendations for prudent action could make pennsylvania a more hospitable place to work: action by municipalities, leadership from the private sector, support from the nonprofit community, and expansion of state laws. policy prescription 1: municipal opportunity one way expansions of leave laws have taken place in pennsylvania, despite inaction by the state legislature, is the enactment of policy at the local level. philadelphia and pittsburgh10 (as well as allegheny county), the state’s most populous cities, have recently instituted numerous policies that give workers who are employed within the city more access to and more expansive leave rights. while there are political forces at work against continuing to allow municipalities to enact these types of locally-applied ordinances, it remains an option for other communities that want to improve leave options in their jurisdiction. in municipalities where significant political support for progressive protections for workers exist, an effort to address these types of issues on their governing councils could certainly be tackled. even smaller municipalities may see prudence in protecting the quality of their local government work forces by improving benefits that local government employees and/or contractors receive—a move that would be entirely within a local governing body’s authority. of course a community-by-community expansion of leave offers no comprehensive solution for workers who continue to fall through the cracks in the federal law, but developments in population-dense areas where a majority of jobs are could greatly expand the number of pennsylvanians who could enjoy the same protections as those who live in states with more comprehensive laws. policy prescription 2: role for private sector a frequent argument made by the state’s conservatives regarding state regulation of employment policies is that telling private businesses how to run their businesses can limit economic growth and is not an appropriate role for state legislators. where state laws fall short, then, private companies are left to make decisions on what type of leave policies they will offer their employees. responsible employers should and often do recognize that offering their employees access to the leave they need has the potential to decrease employee turnover and resources needed for training new employees, as well as a happy, healthy, and loyal workforce (grover and krooker 1995; batt and valcour 2003). 29 jennie sweet-cushman as grover and krooker (1995) found, “(e)mployees who had access to family-responsive policies showed significantly greater organizational commitment and expressed significantly lower intention to quit their jobs (271).” studies following the implementation of the federal fmla also indicated that the cost of implementing (and employees exercising) leave policies is small. because it can make good business sense, employers, from small to large and regardless of industry, should feel compelled to revisit their existing leave policies and consider expanding their benefits in perhaps small but significant ways that could improve the lives of their employees and create a culture of greater work-life balance in their industry. even a slightly expanded leave policy could mean a great deal to workers faced with a personal need that prompts a tough choice about how to juggle their employment and the health and safety of themselves and their loved ones. policy prescription 3: need for nonprofit advocacy and support in reality, political will and corporate motivation to expand workers’ access to leave may require significant social pressure and targeted advocacy. a coordinated effort among organizations with missions that recognize the needs of workers, women, parents, families, children, the working poor, victims of domestic and sexual violence, and others could draw hereto unseen attention to the implications of the minimal protections pennsylvanian workers have compared to workers in other states. a campaign that united these diverse but influential advocacy sectors behind an effort to expand state or local leave laws could be effective in a way that individual organizations (that have merely touched on some of these needs in their reform priorities) have not been. a larger, more expansive effort could draw attention to the vast opportunities lawmakers and employers have to improve working conditions in the state. in the absence of expanded laws, many nonprofit organizations may also need to examine how they might develop programs that meet the needs of workers who have legal, personal, or financial hardships in the face of tough decisions about how to manage their leave needs. the nonprofit community is uniquely skilled at developing education and service programs that address many of the problems created by inadequate leave laws, as well as partnering with private corporations to meet many of these needs. there are many considerations the nonprofit community could begin to make if there were an effort to more specifically address issues of leave in the state. 30 fmla in pa: analysis of family and medical leave policy in the state policy prescription 4: action by state legislature finally and most significant, without changes in state law and even with ad hoc policy changes at other levels, many pennsylvanians will continue to face inadequate protection under federal laws. as has been outlined in this report, this disproportionately disadvantages many of the state’s most vulnerable populations (see table 2). lawmakers should examine prudent means of comprehensively extending additional protections to the state’s workers—with a specific examination of viable legislative options in the state. the newly-created, bicameral, and bipartisan women’s health caucus in the general assembly seems a likely starting point for this endeavor. table 2 implications for under-covered groups under pennsylvania law under-covered groups under pennsylvania law low-income families leave requires financial hardship parents no leave for nonmedical needs, narrow options for adult caregiving leave the disabled private insurance programs do not protect jobs military families families of recently-deployed veterans had few leave options lgbt families state law has limited recognition of nontraditional families in application of existing law pregnant women employers can force leave or terminate instead of making reasonable accommodations victims of domestic/sexual violence justification for leave may not meet needs of victims all pennsylvanians scope, availability, justifications for, and ease of taking leave more limited than other states the caucus revealed the pennsylvania agenda for women’s health in december 2013 and has since introduced bipartisan legislation that addresses women’s health, safety, and financial security in the state. one of the group’s initiatives is h.b. 1892, the pennsylvania pregnant workers fairness act, which addresses issues of pregnancy discrimination and accommodation discussed in this report. none of the other agenda items directly deals with issues of family or medical leave, but these issues are distinctly in the spirit of the caucus’s mission. 31 jennie sweet-cushman in particular, the legislature and the governor should consider options for extending paid leave to millions of pennsylvanians that have none whatsoever through their employers. many, many states have recognized the limitations of the federal law and have acted in important ways through state statute to strengthen the options available to workers. doing so in pennsylvania would give working women and their families, as well as working men, greater flexibility to manage their health, the health of their families, as well as unforeseen emergencies that can happen to any pennsylvanian. in doing so, quality of life and work environment could be improved for all workers in the state, regardless of their economic or family status, or gender. this has been successfully done in many other states as the modest federal fmla law provoked state legislatures to fill in the gaps. as such, it seems reasonable to expect that with the right political attention, some moderate expansion of leave laws in pennsylvania could be possible. notes 1 frequently only maternity leave, but employers are increasingly offering new parents—regardless of gender—some form of paid leave. 2 $40,000 for a family of four (pathways pa, 2009). 3 whitewood v. wolf; palladino v. corbett 4 the grants are also awarded for several circumstances other than deployment, which would not be covered by family leave laws. 5 the most recent year for which data is available. 6 employers with more than 50 employees must provide up to eight weeks of leave, while those with fewer than 50 are required to provide up to four weeks. 7 regardless of whether the employer is subject to fmla. 8 john gallagher is a pennsylvania disability attorney. 9 in march 2015, the u.s. supreme court set an important precedent that pregnant women have some right to pregnancy-related accommodation in young v. united parcel service. presumably if pregnant workers are more easily able to get accommodations from their employers, fewer will need to take leave during their pregnancy. 10 according to pittsburgh city councilwoman natalia rudiak (personal communication, march 17, 2015), the city could only offer paid leave to city employees because legal precedent prevents council from requiring it be offered by employers within the city. references armour, cherie, ask elklit, dean lauterbach, and jon d. elhai. 2014. “the dsm-5 dissociative-ptsd subtype: can levels of depression, anxiety, hostility, and sleeping difficulties differentiate between dissociative-ptsd and ptsd in rape 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(2001). family and medical leave: evidence from the 2000 surveys. monthly lab. rev., 124, 17. woar. (n.d.) “sexual violence statistics.” resources and information. http://www.woar.org (accessed may 2, 2014). women’s legal defense fund. 1993. “state laws and regulations guaranteeing employees their jobs after family and medical leaves.” august. ix commonwealth: genesis donald tannenbaum founding editor emeritus wes leckrone, the incoming editor of commonwealth, has asked me, as the founding editor from 1985-1993(and co-editor for political theory since 1994), to write a brief retrospective on this journal’s development to date. i am happy to do so, especially since it allows me to thank some of the many people and institutions involved in its creation and evolution. in the first issue (1987) i wrote: “it is especially satisfying to bring to life a wholly new publication.” it stemmed from several years of discussion and planning. we began on a high note, with the monetary support of a number of excellent pennsylvania colleges and universities and the financial input and intellectual backing of the pennsylvania political science association. among those instrumental in helping me get the journal off the ground were my first managing editor, annette steigelfest, ppsa president frank colon, ppsa past president donald buzinkai, and council member thomas baldino, who succeeded me as editor in 1994, and who was followed in 2002 by gerard j. (“gerry”) fitzpatrick. both supervening editors have been invaluable in advancing the mission of the journal (see below). i also benefitted from the contributions of a powerhouse editorial review board recruited from some 25 prominent colleges and universities across the nation, from cambridge to berkeley, as well as friends from various professional associations and editors of other political science journals. the journal’s original mission was to publish “important scholarly research from among the many subfields and perspectives in the discipline as well as those of an interdisciplinary nature. open to a variety of approaches and methodologies, it [sought] studies…based on theoretical perspectives (empirical and/or normative) as well as those which advance knowledge by using historical approaches.” additionally, we encouraged articles dealing with pennsylvania state and regional politics and public policy. such studies have been featured in virtually every issue, and they were the sole focus of three special policy issues in 2008-2009. additional editorial input was recruited for these special issues, including michael cassidy, michael king, x and beverly cigler. as commonwealth transitions to a central focus on such studies, henceforth to be published by temple university press, i would note that the journal has flourished over the years where virtually all other state political science journals have disappeared. we must be doing something right. commonwealth: a journal of pennsylvania politics and policy frontmatter commonwealth a journal of pennsylvania politics and policy editor-in-chief j. wesley leckrone, widener university managing editor michelle j. atherton, temple university associate editors christopher borick, muhlenberg college paula a. duda holoviak, kutztown university joseph p. mclaughlin, jr., temple university editorial advisory board bruce caswell, rowan university beverly a. cigler, pennsylvania state university, harrisburg richardson dilworth, drexel university john j. kennedy, west chester university john kincaid, lafayette college joseph marbach, georgian court university david y. miller, university of pittsburgh megan mullin, duke university richard a. stafford, carnegie mellon university copy editor meredith phillips editorial assistant jack heavner, widener university founding editor emeritus donald g. tannenbaum, gettysburg college editors emeritus thomas j. baldino, wilkes university gerard j. fitzpatrick, ursinus college published by temple university press on behalf of the pennsylvania political science association the pennsylvania political science association founded in 1939, the pennsylvania political science association (ppsa) is the nation’s oldest state political science association. its mission has always been to promote scholarship, research, and the exchange of ideas within the pennsylvania community of political scientists. ppsa draws its membership principally from the political science and public administration faculties of pennsylvania’s public and private colleges and universities but also includes government professionals and faculty members from surrounding states. ppsa’s annual conference includes dozens of panelists covering a wide variety of subjects. while university faculty compose the vast majority of participants, legislators, legislative staff, executive officials, and undergraduates also have participated. for more information on the activities of ppsa and membership rates, please visit the association’s website at http://www.papolisci.org/. http://www.papolisci.org/ the pennsylvania political science association officers and executive council 2019–2020 president a. lanethea mathews schultz muhlenberg college first vice president michael greenberg shippensburg university second vice president heather frederick slippery rock university treasurer steven b. lem kutztown university secretary paula a. duda holoviak kutztown university executive council 2017–2020 2018–2021 2019–2022 michelle j. atherton temple university john kennedy west chester university justin deplato robert morris university sarah niebler dickinson college jennie sweet-cushman chatham college joshua weikert immaculata university ex officio members immediate past president steven peterson pennsylvania state university, harrisburg past presidents christopher borick muhlenberg college stanley berard lock haven university brooke harlowe lock haven university editorial staff of commonwealth: a journal of pennsylvania politics and policy editor in chief j. wesley leckrone widener university founding editor emeritus donald g. tannenbaum gettysburg college editors emeritus thomas j. baldino wilkes university gerard j. fitzpatrick ursinus college pennsylvania policy forum c ommonwealth collaborates with the pennsylvania policy forum to plan special issues and attract highquality content to the journal. the forum is a consortium of faculty members and academic and policy institute leaders from pennsylvania colleges and universities who share an interest in generating ideas, analyses, and symposiums that might prove useful to citizens, elected officials, and civic leaders in addressing major issues confronting the commonwealth and its local governments. as educators who have helped train students for careers in public policy, members also share an interest in helping to improve the skills, knowledge, and tools of leaders in the public and civic sectors. members of the forum have expertise in public policy analysis as well as a wide range of substantive issues, including but not limited to education, transportation and public infrastructure, economic development, agriculture, energy, elections, water policy and the environment, health care, social policy, urban development, emergency management, information technology, public finance, and constitutional law. members also share an interest in improving both the policy process itself and the institutional structures through which issues and problems are addressed. forum members have contributed to public policy debates in pennsylvania, and a number have also served in state and local government and in nonprofit and civic organizations that engage in policy development and implementation. some members of the forum are associated with other academic and public policy–related organizations, but the forum itself is independent of these relationships and has no formal connections to any government entity. members obviously benefit from the intellectual resources and environments of their universities, but unless otherwise indicated, they do not act on behalf of their institutions when they sponsor forum projects. the premise of the forum is that through the consortium, members can jointly develop and sponsor nonpartisan research, symposiums, and education and training programs of value to elected officials, civic leaders, and the public and thereby enhance their ability to contribute to more intelligent and informed policymaking. pennsylvania policy forum membership (2020) theodore r. alter, pennsylvania state university michelle j. atherton, temple university thomas j. baldino, wilkes university vincent cannizzaro, york college of pennsylvania beverly a. cigler, pennsylvania state university, harrisburg richardson dilworth, drexel university michael r. dimino, sr., widener university commonwealth law school (chair) paula a. duda holoviak, kutztown university mark alan hughes, university of pennsylvania john j. kennedy, west chester university john kincaid, lafayette college robin lauermann, messiah college j. wesley leckrone, widener university (vice chair) joseph p. mclaughlin, jr., temple university david y. miller, university of pittsburgh randall m. miller, st. joseph’s university joseph sabino mistick, duquesne university school of law richard a. stafford, carnegie mellon university craig wheeland, villanova university contents volume 21, number 1 | 2021 | issn 2469-7 672 editor’s note ■ introduction to the special issue on women in pennsylvania politics | jennie sweet-cushman, special issue editor articles ■ what do pennsylvania voters think about gender and women’s representation?: what we learned from 2016 and 2018 exit polls | sarah niebler and a. lanethea mathews-schultz ■ gendered pathways to power: identifying the role of county party chairs in the candidate recruitment process of pennsylvania’s local elective offices | dana brown ■ wave or trend: female candidates in pennsylvania elections in the trump era | joshua j. weikert ■ solving pennsylvania’s budget woes: increased female representation | benjamin melusky commonwealth: a journal of political science  volume 15, number 1  may 2009 policy issue on emergency management  2009 ppsa/lorl, pa house of reps. issn 0890-2410 regional response to all-hazards events: a commonwealth perspective gregory g. noll, csp, chmm south central task force program manager events of the past five years have illustrated the need to develop partnerships beyond one=s contiguous borders. while state and federal resources will ultimately respond, the reality is that there will be a substantial gap between when those resources are requested and when they become operationally engaged. the challenge for all communities is how to fill that void until the “cavalry arrives.” the objective of this article is to provide an overview of the south central task force (sctf) and its role in developing and implementing a regional-based organization within a commonwealth form of state government to meet the “all-hazards” needs posed by today=s emergency preparedness challenges. background sctf is one of nine regional counter-terrorism task forces originally formed in 1997 by the commonwealth of pennsylvania to coordinate local and regional efforts in response to acts of terrorism. in 2002, further authorities were granted under pennsylvania’s counterterrorism planning, preparedness and response act 227-2002. sctf encompasses an eight-county region, covering an area of approximately 5,200 square miles and a population of over 1.7 million. the region includes the state capital of pennsylvania, three metropolitan areas with populations exceeding 250,000, and the center of the commonwealth’s agriculture industry. perry county, the smallest and most rural county, was the site where the 1993 world trade center bombers tested their explosive devices before the actual attack. although it is not a dhs urban area security initiative (uasi) region, regional 18 regional response to all-hazards events: a commonwealth perspective threats, risks and response requirements are also influenced by its proximity to the philadelphia and baltimore metropolitan areas. pennsylvania is a commonwealth form of government, which results in a myriad of local, town, city, and township governmental jurisdictions. within the south central region, there are 312 municipalities. over 90% of fire/rescue organizations are volunteer-based, including the hazardous materials and urban search and rescue (us&r)/technical rescue units. in contrast, the emergency medical services community is in the midst of shifting from a volunteer-based system to a career-based system. finally, over 75% of the police departments have fewer than five officers. the following summarizes the sctf regional response community: $ fire/rescue departments = 326 $ police departments = 143 $ emergency medical services (bls) agencies = 104 $ emergency medical services (als) agencies = 31 $ hospitals = 16 $ special operations units [i.e., tactical teams (6), hazmat response units (6), us&r/technical rescue companies (6)] = 18 the regional task force concept within pennsylvania, the nine regional task forces serve as the regional point-of-contact for the distribution of all department of homeland security grant program (hsgp) and law enforcement terrorism prevention program (letpp) grant funds. the pennsylvania state emergency management agency (pema) functions as the state administrative authority (saa), and allocates the grant funds to the nine regional task forces. each respective task force is then responsible for the development of a regional homeland security strategy and response plan that is consistent with both federal and state guidance. the mission of sctf is: 1) to foster and advance the capabilities of public safety providers, elected officials and other stakeholders throughout the region to protect lives and social/economic infrastructure from terrorist threats or incidents; and 2) to take a leadership role in the gregory g. noll 19 development of a comprehensive regional counter-terrorism program that addresses planning, prevention, response, and recovery issues. while the legislative basis for sctf is primarily based upon terrorism-related risks, the task force has followed an aall-hazards@ planning strategy since its inception. sctf strategic priorities and objectives are consistent with hspd-8 b national preparedness goal (march, 2005) and the 2003 pennsylvania homeland security strategy. sctf has conducted formal homeland security threat assessment processes in both 1999 and 2003, with the next threat assessment tentatively scheduled for 2007. from a strategic perspective, sctf exists to coordinate and facilitate the development of regional solutions to regional problems and response scenarios that may exceed the capability of local government agencies. it does not have any command and control authority, and there is no mandate for any agency or organization to participate in the regional process. as a result, sctf must continuously amarket and sell@ the benefits of participating in the regional concept. the players sctf membership can be broken into three categories: the executive committee; liaison members; and sctf participating agencies, organizations and individuals. a contract program manager is responsible for the day-to-day management and administration of task force activities, and another contractor serves as the exercise coordinator. executive committee. sctf is governed by an executive committee consisting of the emergency management coordinator (emc) from each county within the task force. the chairperson and vice-chairperson must be state-certified emc=s and are elected by the executive committee. all decisions are based upon a majority vote process. liaison members. these representatives are from state or federal agencies that support or are involved in task force activities. primary government agencies with a liaison to the task force include:  pa emergency management agency (pema)  pa department of agriculture (doa)  pa department of corrections (doc) 20 regional response to all-hazards events: a commonwealth perspective  pa department of environmental protection (dep)  pa department of health (doh)  pa state police (psp)  pa wing, civil air patrol  pa national guard, 3rd civil support team (cst)  federal bureau of investigation (fbi), harrisburg office  bureau of alcohol, tobacco, firearms and explosives (batf), harrisburg office  u.s. department of homeland security (dhs), philadelphia office, office of infrastructure protection  u.s. environmental protection agency (epa) participating agencies. this is where the actual “work” is accomplished and includes public, private and volunteer agencies, organizations and individuals who fall into one of the following categories: 1. sctf subcommittee or working group member, including: $ business, industry and infrastructure subcommittee $ communications subcommittee $ criminal justice subcommittee, including the tactical team working group $ emergency medical services (ems) subcommittee $ equipment subcommittee and technology working group $ fire, rescue and hazardous materials subcommittee, including the hazmat chiefs working group $ hospital subcommittee $ training subcommittee and exercise working group 2. agency or organization provided with sctf-acquired resources which agrees to be available for regional mutual aid responses. 3. individuals serving on sctf discipline-specific units, strike teams or task forces. gregory g. noll 21 concept of operations sctf activities are based upon the following strategic planning assumptions: 1. any regional response must build upon the elements of mutual aid used on a daily basis. 2. although the primary focus of sctf is directed towards terrorism planning and response, where possible all equipment acquired through dhs grant funds shall have a “dual use” or “all hazards” capability. 3. local response agencies will likely be “on their own” for the initial 24 hours before substantial state resources and up to 96 hours before substantial federal resources will arrive. 4. sctf planning, procurement and response policies and decisions will be based upon “regional” needs and perspectives vs. “local” perspectives. 5. emphasis shall be placed upon implementing policy changes that can be institutionalized or will have long-term benefits in the event that current funding streams are terminated. the sctf regional concept of operations is based upon providing regional-based mutual aid for large-scale events that exceed the capabilities of local resources prior to the arrival of state and federal response assets. this concept of operations is primarily based upon the deployment of specialized regional response teams. under pennsylvania act 227, the counter-terrorism regional task forces are required to establish “y specialized regional counter-terrorism response teams” that can be deployed in the event of a major event. deployment of these teams builds upon the basic concepts of mutual aid, and provides a logical framework by which regional-based resources can provide assistance to local jurisdictions when an event exceeds their capabilities. sctf specialized response teams include the following: $ incident support team b type 4 incident management team (imt) $ law enforcement strike teams (lest) 22 regional response to all-hazards events: a commonwealth perspective $ decontamination strike teams $ hospital decon strike teams $ emergency medical services (ems) task forces $ special operations units, including five hazardous materials response teams certified to pennsylvania act 165 requirements, six tactical teams, technical rescue companies, and pennsylvania us&r company 1, which is an in-state component of the pennsylvania task force 1 federal urban search and rescue team. accomplishments the drive to establish a regional planning and response organization has been a significant challenge. some of our accomplishments include: 1. recognition of the business, industry and infrastructure (bi&i) subcommittee by its peers as the first pennsylvania regional task force that has successfully addressed coordination with the private sector on a regional basis. since its inception in 2003, the subcommittee has doubled in size and includes representation from eight critical infrastructure/key resource (ci/kr) sectors. during the 2005b2006 legislative session, the bi&i subcommittee worked with pennsylvania house legislators to introduce the critical infrastructure tax credit bill, to provide tax credit incentives for private sector investment for security enhancements by critical infrastructure industries. 2. implemented the decon strike team concept, under which 37 fire department engine companies have been trained and are capable of initiating mass decontamination operations. these units can be deployed individually as a decon company to an incident or a hospital to provide decon support, or as a decon strike team (five decon companies operating under the direction of a strike team leader who is trained to the hazardous materials technician level). 3. implemented the concept of the sctf incident management team (imt), which is typed as a type 4 imt under the nims resource typing standard. during the past year, the imt has been deployed to provide support for the northeastern pennsylvania june floods, to a gregory g. noll 23 major hazardous materials train derailment in hershey, pennsylvania, to the nickel mines amish school shooting in october, and in january worked with the pennsylvania type 3 imt to provide support for the pennsylvania farm show exposition. 4. conducted a major field exercise (wide vigilance) that tested and validated the regional concept of operations. the exercise included response operations at three major field locations approximately 20 miles apart from each other (letterkenny army depot, new cumberland army depot, fort indiantown gap), medical activities at all 16 regional hospitals, the activation of eight county emergency operations centers (eoc), the establishment of a regional multiagency coordination center (macc), and the processing of approximately 500 victims. 5. the 16 hospitals in the south central region have implemented an aggressive program to enhance their individual and collective capabilities. key accomplishments include: $ enacted formal memorandums of understanding (mou) among all 16 hospitals. $ developed a regional hospital response plan. $ implemented a uniform hazmat training curriculum that is used by all 16 hospitals. $ used both dhs and u.s. health and human services health resources and services administration (hrsa) grant funding streams, increasing the surge capacity of regional hospitals. $ established a pharmaceutical cache for emergency response personnel. $ conducted over 20 tabletop exercises so that each hospital could exercise its plans, policies and procedures to respond to a terrorist incident causing a mass casualty event. these exercises were conducted in preparation for the october field exercise previously noted. 6. in 2006, approximately 3,800 students attended training courses coordinated and funded by sctf, and delivered by sctf-related agencies. 24 regional response to all-hazards events: a commonwealth perspective 7. delivered a series of seven local elected officials workshops to familiarize local and county elected officials with the regional concept, the role of sctf, the process by which dhs grants management and procurement decisions are made, and to respond to their questions. 8. delivered the third annual homeland security conference that is designed to bring all of the various response disciplines together and facilitate their networking in an educational setting. the conference brings together over 300 attendees annually. the task force has received several awards for its efforts to establish a regional-based capability, including the international association of emergency management (iaem) 2006 interagency disaster preparedness award, the u.s. epa region 3 partnership award, and the mid-atlantic regional all-hazards forum 2006 regional readiness achievement award. the future sctf has made substantial progress in developing a regional “allhazards” planning, response and recovery capability. however, many challenges remain including: 1. managing the day-to-day business of emergency management and response while trying to facilitate the development of a regional concept requires good people, hard work and good balance. in reality, there is no separate sctf. the task force actually consists of numerous local and county-based agencies and organizations who have agreed to work together for the benefit of the collective eight county region. in simple terms, they simultaneously wear a “local hat” and a “regional hat.” in addition, most of the actual work performed at the “task level” is accomplished by individuals who already have a “full-plate.” 2. the regional task force concept is a “work in progress” and continues to lack authority in different areas. while significant improvements have been made, the last five years have demonstrated the need for additional state legislative action to address task force gaps in mutual aid legal protections, workman compensation, and insurance protection. in addition, there currently exists no state gregory g. noll 25 mechanism for funding emergency responses to large-scale regional incidents and events that exceed local capabilities. 3. sctf is currently a “people dependent” organization and if the regional concept is to grow and sustain itself, it must become a “system dependent” organization. sctf is fortunate to have a cadre of highly motivated stakeholders who collectively desire to make a difference in both their organization and in the region. however, the long-term success of the regional concept of operations will be dependent upon our ability to “institutionalize” the regional response concept, so that it is ultimately viewed as a routine part of our business in the emergency management and response communities. 4. despite our successes, an objective assessment would show that numerous agencies and organizations have not yet been “sold” on the benefits of a regional approach. the sctf leadership team continues to move forward with the large number of agencies and organizations who are willing to embrace the concept and the collective benefits it brings to the citizens of south central pennsylvania. while we consistently market the advantages that regionalization can bring, we have also made a conscious decision to not allow our failures to stop the forward movement of regional partnerships. our philosophy is simple b get on the train, get off the train, or get run over by the train. 5. the regional concept of operations must be continually marketed and validated to all of our stakeholders. key elements in this process include: (a) continued movement from the pennsylvania act 227 and dhs homeland security grant program terrorism focus to an all hazards perspective; (b) supporting the continued growth and maturation of all sctf subcommittees, strike teams and related components; and (c) an aggressive and value-added county and regional training and exercise program. 6. adoption of a common incident management framework is the foundation for any successful regional response. if sctf-acquired equipment is the equivalent of “emergency response hardware,” then adoption, training and implementation of the national incident management system (nims) is the “emergency response software package” that provides the foundation for an effective regional 26 regional response to all-hazards events: a commonwealth perspective response. while we have made significant strides in facilitating the regional adoption of nims, additional work remains. 7. increased efforts are required to fully integrate volunteer agencies and organizations on a regional basis. while there have been substantial efforts to integrate and coordinate with volunteer agencies at the county level, efforts to facilitate the collaboration of these agencies at the regional level have been “hit or miss.” 81 book reviews comments from the book review editor this issue of commonwealth presents five book reviews, all concerning aspects of pennsylvania government and politics. two reviews deal with the state’s largest cities: philadelphia and pittsburgh. from the outside in: suburban elites, third-sector organizations, and the reshaping of philadelphia, by carolyn t. adams, examines how philadelphia managed to reverse its economic and social decline by engaging “third sector actors.” in devastation and renewal: an environmental history of pittsburgh and its region, the editor, joel a. tarr, gathered essays that review how pittsburgh’s growth affected the city’s and the region’s environmental quality and the steps that were taken to reverse the terrible consequences of decades of air and water pollution from the coal, steel, and manufacturing industries. three reviews concern the state’s politics and its tendency toward corruption. in keystone corruption: a pennsylvania insider’s view of a state gone wrong, brad bumsted reflects on his many years reporting from harrisburg, where he observed too many of the state’s elected officials failing to serve their constituents honorably. on the front lines of pennsylvania politics: twenty-five years of keystone reporting, another journalist, john m. baer, covers much the same territory but from a somewhat more sympathetic perspective. william ecenbarger’s kids for cash: two judges, thousands of children, and a $2.6 million kickback scheme chronicles in great detail one of the state’s most tragic scandals. and finally, harold gullan’s toomey’s triumph: inside a key senate campaign offers a thorough account of the 2010 senate race between toomey and sestak. 82 book reviews from the outside in: suburban elites, third-sector organizations, and the reshaping of philadelphia. carolyn t. adams. 2014. ithaca, ny: cornell university press. isbn: 978-0-8014-7998-4. anyone who has lived in or studied philadelphia long enough to see it transition from a large, severely struggling, shrinking, east coast city to a growing, shiny, and lively cosmopolitan metropolis worthy of emulation today has to wonder: “how did they do it?” in her book from the outside in: suburban elites, third-sector organizations, and the reshaping of philadelphia, carolyn t. adams answers that exact question. she also explains that anyone studying philadelphia’s revival should be careful about defining who they are when asking about those responsible for the city’s resurgence. recent scholars and advocates for regional thinking have been shifting their sights away from metropolitan government and toward governance by coalitions, alliances, networks, nonprofits, public-private partnerships, subgovernments, districts, and special purpose authorities. this is the third sector of the title, outside the private and the public sectors, but still acting as change agents for the public at large. adams refers to this process as a “stealth regionalism…increasingly incorporating outside interests into the process of restructuring the city” (p. 2). according to third sector actors, philadelphia government is inefficient, corrupt, and slow; remove its influence and the trappings of machine politics, and the region can thrive. politicians need to distribute as many benefits as possible to their immediate constituents, and as such, they operate on a narrow time horizon with a short-term goal of surviving through the next election. of course, philadelphia isn’t the only city to suffer from the by-products of nineteenth and twentieth-century party politics. third sector organizations experience no such shortcomings, which has led to a trade-off of comprehensive planning at the local level for other benefits better accomplished by outside forces. two policy domains that are traditionally under local control have drawn a lot of outside interest: land use and public education. undeniably, philadelphia is important to the health of the region, and so it is no special curiosity that organizations and interests with access have seized the opportunity to influence its economic life. yet, where does this leave city government and the preferences of the citizens who reside there? do projects and revitalization that benefit the region as a whole improve the lives of everyday philadelphians? in the case of immediate investment, yes; but as to when and where this investment takes place, not so much. in the first chapter, adams explores the circumstances surrounding transportation in the region. the vine street expressway eased the flow of traffic through the city, but removed sections of the surrounding neighborhoods against the desires of their residents, and served to wall off the northern boundary of the central city. the southeastern pennsylvania 83 book reviews transportation authority (septa) directed investment to public transit within city boundaries, but at the expense of the city’s representation on the (disproportionately suburban) board that controls funding allocations. in a chapter dedicated to the educational landscape, she explains how suburban investment in the growth of charter schools (and to some extent, parochial schools) has removed financing from and sometimes the existence of the traditional neighborhood school itself, especially in predominantly poor and minority areas. in its place, these outside forces combine to dictate land use as well as education policy, with charter schools disconnected geographically from the communities of their students. in other chapters, adams also explores large economic growth projects such as the center city district, the convention center authority, and community development nonprofits. ultimately, the role of third sector organizations in combination with the city government must strike a balance between regionalism and the ability of citizens to direct their futures. the reader is left to decide whether growth and economic investment are beneficial, and for whom. adams’ book is vital reading for anyone interested in the economic development of cities, the potential for regional cooperation, and the role of politics in the process of both. scholars and practitioners in politics, planning, education, nonprofits, and urban development will find this case study highly instructive and illuminating. michelle j. atherton, associate director of the temple university institute for public affairs devastation and renewal: an environmental history of pittsburgh and its region. joel a. tarr, ed. 2005. pittsburgh: university of pittsburgh press. isbn: 0-8229-5892-9 (paper). all cities as they grow and evolve will directly modify the surrounding landscape and impact their local and regional environments. very few cities have had such a dramatic impact on their local landscape and influenced the environment to the extent that pittsburgh has during its over two centuries of growth and evolution. devastation and renewal: an environmental history of pittsburgh and its region, edited by joel a. tarr, contains ten chapters that discuss how the landscape and location of pittsburgh (situated at the confluence of the allegheny and monongahela rivers, and mouth of the ohio river) affected its development into a city that was a central link for trade between the coastal atlantic cities and the western frontier during the 1800s. the city became an industrial powerhouse with its regional deposits of coal, oil, iron, and sand. but with the growth of trade and industry came destruction to the environment. while pollution was used as a measure of strength for an industrial city during the industrial era, pollution also impacted the health and welfare of people living in the city and its local and regional environment. the financial costs to 84 book reviews provide city residents with clean air and water and to reclaim and protect the environment from further pollution are considered in many chapters. the book focuses on air and water pollution with discussion on how industrial, political and social decisions, land use, and waste impact air and water pollution. specific chapters for water pollution include the historical development of the water treatment and distribution system that delivered clean water to city residents in the early 1900s and the decision to design a combined (storm water and domestic sewage) sewer collection system to treat wastewater in the mid-1900s. another chapter provides a historical analysis of the environmental damage caused by acid mine drainage and how this drainage was ultimately regulated, not because of environmental harm or to protect citizens, but because another powerful industry was impacted, namely, the railroads, as the mine drainage polluted the railroads’ specifically designated water reservoirs. chapters on air pollution include environmental degradation to the surrounding area and decreased health of city residents due to industrial smoke. they describe how the city reduced smoke emissions mainly by creating smoke control ordinances from the early to mid-1900s to reduce industrial and residential pollution from burning natural gas as well as coal. by the late 1900s, the city recognized that it needed to improve the appearance of buildings by cleaning the smoke residues if it were to attract new businesses. one chapter provides an analysis of the 1948 donora air pollution disaster when emissions from a zinc smelter were atmospherically trapped for several days, leaving hundreds of people suffering from breathing-related illnesses and causing twenty deaths. this disaster led to health-based regulations to control air emissions at the federal level. another chapter offers a historical description of the transformation of the nine mile run valley. it was one of the last undisturbed areas in pittsburgh with access to the monongahela river and a vision of becoming a park, but it was ultimately used as a dumping ground for slag wastes produced by iron and steel manufactures. in the late 1900s, the nile mile run slag piles were converted to residential areas and parks, but the valley is permanently transformed and scarred by the remaining slag. the final chapter is an essay by samuel p. hays, an environmental historian and long-time resident of pittsburgh, on how city leaders overstate their environmental accomplishments, back legislation with limited power to regulate environmental issues, and have no holistic environmental vision for the city and region. to date, compromises have been made that balance economic, political, social, and environmental needs, which often produce less than ideal results. brian whitman, professor, department of environmental sciences and engineering, wilkes university 85 book reviews keystone corruption: a pennsylvania insider’s view of a state gone wrong. brad bumsted. 2013. philadelphia: camino books. isbn: 978-1933822-80-8. pennsylvania has a unique and impressive political history that includes such monumental events as the creation and signing of both the declaration of independence and the constitution. while the commonwealth will always be associated with these landmark political documents, pennsylvania also has a legendary history in another realm of the political world—corruption. from the political machines that dominated both philadelphia and pittsburgh throughout much of the twentieth century, to scandals that rocked the state government in harrisburg during the 1970s, the keystone state has a long and inglorious history of governmental malfeasance. unfortunately for pennsylvania’s residents, corruption is not an artifact of a bygone era, but remains alive and well in the 15 years since the turn of the twenty-first century. journalist brad bumsted deftly describes the sordid political events that have recently occurred in his book keystone corruption: a pennsylvania insider’s view of a state gone wrong. bumsted, a veteran capitol reporter for the pittsburgh tribune review, thoroughly unpacks the wave of political scandals that rocked the state between 2007 and 2015. throughout this well researched and referenced book, bumsted provides both a comprehensive description of the array of corruption that evolved during the turbulent five years that are examined as well as valuable insight about the underlying institutional and cultural factors that provided fertile ground for the growth of such abuses. in keystone corruption bumsted effectively uses his early chapters as a prelude to the more contemporary scandals that are his ultimate focus. he seamlessly reviews over a century of political corruption, highlighting some of the most egregious cases and ethically challenged characters of the twentieth century. while fans of political history may want even more detail about the events and players in these many scandals, bumsted moves the reader quickly to his primary focus: the rash of serious corruption cases beginning around 2007. his best work comes when he is dealing with some of the most colorful characters of the era including vince fumo, bill deweese, john perzel and the imminently entertaining orie family. at times the characters are so over the top that you have to remind yourself that the accounts are not fictional. bumsted relies on both his own insider’s experience and solid research to explain how personal ambition and hubris, along with poorly designed institutions and a troubled political culture, can produce the intensity and scope of corruption that took place in the commonwealth during this period. bumsted’s concluding chapter calls on some of the state’s major political figures and good government advocates to offer prescriptions for decreasing 86 book reviews political corruption in the commonwealth, and they deliver well-reasoned and largely attainable ways that pennsylvania can begin to limit the abuses that have become a hallmark of its political culture. however, as one finishes keystone corruption, it’s hard not to think that the scandals chronicled in this impressive work may now serve as a prelude to yet another period of corruption and scandal that has transpired since the book was published. from statewide elected officials such as rob mccord and kathleen kane, to city governments in reading and allentown, corruption appears to be alive and well in the birthplace of american democracy. while this may be good news in terms of material for bumsted’s next book, the latest round of scandal certainly tears at the fabric of pennsylvania’s already tattered political environment. christopher p. borick, professor, department of political science, director, polling center, muhlenberg college on the front lines of pennsylvania politics: twenty-five years of keystone reporting. john m. baer. 2012. charleston, sc: the history press. isbn: 978-1-60949-715-6. nothing and no one are beyond john m. baer’s critique. a journalist for more than 40 years, baer has written on disasters, terrorist acts, scandals, politicians, and sports figures. however, it is pennsylvania politics where he excels, fitting for a man born in the state’s capital. his book, on the front lines of pennsylvania politics: twenty-five years of keystone reporting, is one part autobiography, one part history lesson and all parts storytelling on pennsylvania’s most prominent politicos. “covering politics in pennsylvania is like going to the circus every day,” (p. 13) and baer introduces readers to the state’s political ringmasters, jugglers, and clowns. baer divides the book into seven chapters, beginning with his love for pennsylvania and its politics and concluding with a reflection on pennsylvania’s political landscape. in “the keystone state i know and love,” he reviews the state’s “history and politics” (p. 15) and foreshadows the political foibles, tragedies, success stories, and corruption found in coming chapters. baer also introduces readers to the dark cloud seemingly fixated over pennsylvania that prevents its politicians from succeeding nationally. he recognizes the state’s idiosyncrasies, as well as a “custom of corruption,” and a “custom of being non-progressive, anti-reform and holding one of the nation’s worst records in terms of women in elective office” (p. 21). “how pennsylvania (and i) got from thornburgh to casey” provides a whirlwind trip from the 1978 election of richard l. “dick” thornburgh in the republican gubernatorial primary through the 1986 gubernatorial race between republican bill scranton and democrat bob casey. in 87 book reviews particular, baer highlights three items that helped elect casey: eleventh hour advertising, broken promises, and a national media spectacle focused on scranton’s admission of recreational drug use and his refusal to name the drug(s). casey’s election leads to baer’s heftiest chapter: “the casey years (and lots of political doings).” as a seasoned political reporter, baer knows the players in pennsylvania’s political game. “the casey years,” as well as “the ridge years,” read like a who’s who of modern pennsylvania politics: h. john heinz, harris wofford, frank rizzo, mark cohen, arlen specter, lynn yeakel, mark singel, tom ridge, rick santorum, ernie preate jr…the list and accompanying stories seem almost endless. were it not for baer’s concise, narrative writing, a reader easily could become lost. “ridge to washington; rendell to harrisburg” begins on september 11, 2001. with tom ridge comfortably into his second term as governor, change was imminent. less than two weeks after the terrorist attacks in new york city, washington d.c., and shanksville, pa., president george w. bush tabbed ridge as the nation’s “anti-terrorism czar,” a “no-win job” but a “very big deal” nevertheless (p. 94). ridge accomplished what few pennsylvania politicians could achieve in all of u.s. history: ascend to global visibility. ridge’s transition from harrisburg to washington was not without controversy. his security plans were vague; his family lived in the governor’s mansion—at the expense of taxpayers—after he was no longer governor; and the color-coded homeland security advisory system “was instant fodder for comics” (p. 100). lieutenant governor mark schweiker assumed responsibility for running the state, but not for long. democrat ed rendell defeated republican mike fisher to become the state’s next governor. in the book’s final chapters, “the rendell years (and other fun stuff)” and “ed departs, corbett arrives and 2010 brings a surprise,” readers again are privy to baer’s wit and political acumen. baer recalls rendell’s notoriety as “an epic eater” (p. 116), but the commentary is not a personal attack. the governor had racked up nearly $76,000 in food bills during his first 11 months in office. baer also addresses rendell’s penchant for high speeds—some topping 100 mph—on the pennsylvania turnpike, and several scandals and controversies that surfaced late in his tenure. baer concludes with a brief introduction to rendell’s successor, republican tom corbett, whom baer describes as “the anti-ed (rendell)” (p. 148). on the front lines is neither a book simply on pennsylvania politics, nor is it the musings of a veteran political journalist. rather, baer takes the best of both to create a witty, yet poignant retrospective of 25 years of pennsylvania politics. those familiar with the state will recognize the names and personalities and appreciate more fully, the sometimes-onlyalluded-to backstories of politicians and events. yet even the unacquainted 88 book reviews can enjoy a glimpse into the circus and appreciate “the agony and ecstasy of covering pennsylvania politics” (p. 7). kalen m.a. churcher, assistant professor, department of communication studies, wilkes university kids for cash: two judges, thousands of children, and a $2.6 million kickback scheme. william ecenbarger. 2012. new york: the new press. isbn: 978-1-59558-797-8. in the fall of 2009, veteran journalist william ecenbarger was asked to fill in for an ill philadelphia inquirer reporter at the first hearing of the interbranch commission on juvenile justice. the commission was created to investigate the “kids for cash” bribery and extortion scheme in luzerne county, pennsylvania, in which thousands of kids were sent to a private detention facility in exchange for millions of dollars paid to two county judges. ecenbarger stayed with the story for the ensuing two and half years, resulting in this riveting american tragedy, part true crime and part essential public policy debate. faithful to his journalistic principles, ecenbarger provides the facts and lets readers develop an appropriate sense of horror on their own. and that does not take long. the story starts with simple tales of everyday kids who made kid mistakes and who had to appear before juvenile court judge mark ciavarella. hiding behind a self-proclaimed “zero tolerance” policy, ciavarella denied them due process, including the right to counsel, and ordered them to be shackled on the spot and hauled away to a for-profit detention facility. for that, he and his president judge were richly compensated. how could this happen? ecenbarger places some of the blame on the confluence of a corrupt political culture and a well-intentioned juvenile justice system that favors secrecy. ecenbarger tracks the history of luzerne county, home to hardworking immigrants with an old-country respect for politics and government. public corruption and organized crime formed an early and comfortable relationship here, but regular folks chose to focus on the good and ignore the bad. it is a community where a politician can stumble, but still get a good word for a long ago kindness. ecenbarger also shows how the american juvenile justice policy has resulted in a more tolerant system for kids. even the lexicon in juvenile court sounds not so bad. there are delinquents instead of criminals, hearings instead of trials, adjudications instead of convictions, and placement instead of imprisonment. and since juvenile court proceedings are not public, for the protection of the juvenile, hard facts rarely emerge. the public policy discussion here is punctuated with additional examples of the evil in ciavarella’s courtroom. these vignettes are reminders that this 89 book reviews is first a story about kids. and, ever the solid journalist, ecenbarger follows through to the ongoing tragedy, the residual trauma suffered by kids and their families. the development of the conspiracy is detailed at a deliberate pace, showing how even the most repugnant crimes often have a mundane beginning. but as the pace quickens, the end comes swiftly for the conspirators, with authorities, the press, and the judges’ cohorts and victims coming at them from every direction. ciavarella’s jury trial is described in detail, showing how a fair trial can be granted to someone who systematically denied others the same. when ciavarella finally takes the stand, ecenbarger wisely switches to the trial transcripts, letting ciavarella’s own words sink him. after his conviction, ciavarella refused to accept responsibility, but he understood his standing in the community, as the leader of “cash for kids.” lashing out at the prosecutor, he said, “those three words made me the personification of evil. they made me the anti-christ and the devil.” this book strikes a compelling balance between true crime and public policy, and ecenbarger ends where he started, at the interbranch juvenile justice commission, and its proposed reforms. and he closes with a discussion of public attitudes regarding juvenile crime, which ecenbarger likens to a pendulum swinging between “the goals of child welfare and community safety.” as for all those kids whose lives were easily traded for cash by an avaricious judge, ecenbarger does not limit his criticism of criminal justice policy to luzerne county or pennsylvania, but he does blame “the pervasive belief that more people need to be locked up.” as he says, “retribution trumps rehabilitation every election day. thus it is that america, with only 5% of the world’s population, is home to 25% of its prisoners.” joseph sabino mistick, professor, duquesne university school of law toomey’s triumph: inside a key senate campaign. harold i. gullan. 2012. philadelphia: temple university press. isbn: 978-1-4399-0835-8. the 2010 pennsylvania u.s. senate race was a bittersweet moment in my life and career. arlen specter, the man who had long been my personal political hero, faced his waterloo in the democratic primary after nearly forty years in public service. i grew up in a house where my father—a yellow dog, mcgovern democrat—religiously crossed party lines every six years to return specter to the senate. as a junior at thiel college in 2001, i interned for specter on capitol hill, doing policy research on education and small business issues, answering constituent mail, and taking notes at hearings. i penned a guest op/ed for the philadelphia daily news in the closing days of specter’s senate service about his illustrious and occasionally 90 book reviews controversial career. i wrote that “perhaps the most essential element of the specter legacy is that he provided equal treatment for every pennsylvania citizen, showed equal concern for each of the state’s 67 counties and considered the importance of every citizen’s views regardless of his political party identification.”1 like many pennsylvania political observers, i anticipated a specter versus toomey rematch from the 2004 republican primary, which was one of the most dynamic political contests in pennsylvania history. however, an historic electoral earthquake shook pennsylvania on may 18, 2010, as the hard-charging congressman, joe sestak, defeated specter in the democratic primary by approximately 8%. the 2010 general election was set. in one corner was sestak, who, in his initial congressional run in 2006 and during the campaign against specter, demonstrated an indefatigable fighting spirit and an uncanny ability to appear to be in multiple places at once, crisscrossing pennsylvania as if it were the size of rhode island. in the opposite corner was toomey, a former member of congress and club for growth ceo. no matter the occasion, toomey always seemed to cautiously choose each word uttered during a speech as he carefully explained positions on major policy questions. toomey is and was the quintessential conservative in both the pursuit of policy as well as temperament and personality, a cross between cal coolidge and bill buckley. john baer, the dean of the capitol press corps in harrisburg, once observed that “toomey is controlled, concise and sounds sensible. contrast that with the angry-older-gop of mitch mcconnell, john mccain and john boehner.”2 enter dr. harold i. gullan, author of toomey’s triumph: inside a key senate campaign, a thorough and thoughtful appraisal of the toomeysestak race from the vantage point of a historian and political observer with unique behind-the-scenes access to one of the campaigns. gullan has an abundance of experience in analyzing and writing about historically significant political campaigns as he did in the upset that wasn’t: harry s. truman and the critical election of 1948. in toomey’s triumph, gullan dedicated many hours observing and interviewing the core of toomey’s campaign team. this book isn’t so much an assessment of pat toomey and joe sestak as candidates as it is a careful documentation of gullan’s encounters with the individuals charged with steering the ship for team toomey. his analysis of the central nervous system of the campaign itself takes readers far behind the scenes to understand why the toomey campaign employed certain strategies and messages and why such devices were developed and deployed. among the many attributes that made gullan’s the upset that wasn’t such an important contribution to presidential campaign history was the author’s attentiveness to the political strategies employed by each 91 book reviews candidate, the personal lives and political careers of the contenders, and his understanding of how often the most powerful explanatory technique for assessing campaigns requires peeling back the proverbial political onion to examine the behind-the-scenes calculations of the candidates and operatives. readers of toomey’s triumph will be glad to know that gullan brings the same focus in this book. gullan astutely noted that the 2010 u.s. senate race presented pennsylvania voters with a unique opportunity to choose between two candidates embodying a genuine devotion to policy goals and ideological commitments that went much deeper than basic partisan divisions. neither sestak nor toomey attempted to sidestep their respectively liberal or conservative records, and both men presented themselves in starkly different terms as individuals and as policymakers. gullan paints remarkable pictures of toomey and sestak who gave pennsylvanians a crystal clear choice between candidates with divergent platforms lacking significant overlap. the critical lessons learned through gullan’s behind-the-scenes access to toomey’s organization is what makes toomey’s triumph so valuable for those interested in electoral politics, or as a supplemental text for a course in campaign and elections or pennsylvania history and politics. perhaps the greatest weakness to toomey’s triumph is that gullan did not devote enough time covering joe sestak. despite the fact that 2010 was a banner year for republicans around the country and pennsylvania, toomey defeated sestak by a mere 80,229 votes out of 3,977,661 cast (or just 1.02%). meanwhile, dan onorato, the democratic gubernatorial candidate lost to republican tom corbett by 357,975 votes (or 8.98%).3 at the end of the day, three main stories emerged from the 2010 senatorial race in pennsylvania. the first was the close of the specter era, second was toomey’s victory, and third was sestak’s narrow defeat in a year when republicans rode an electoral wave across the nation. gullan did well in covering the importance of the first two items, but perhaps shortchanged the final component of the story. gullan’s readers are left with a fairly clear understanding of how and why the toomey campaign’s strategy was determined and implemented. given the nature of this race, readers would certainly benefit from a deeper analysis of how and why sestak and his campaign came so close to realizing victory in a year that was historically detrimental for democrats. similarly, james michener’s report of the county chairman presented an account of the kennedy campaign in 1960 in bucks county that did not necessarily shine a light on the inner workings of both the kennedy and nixon campaigns, yet remains a crucial course for those seeking to understand pennsylvania politics at the regional and grassroots levels. the absence of a detailed analysis of the strategy development and implementation by the sestak campaign should not deter 92 potential readers from assessing—and enjoying—gullan’s work, especially since pennsylvanians may get to experience a toomey-sestak rematch in november 2016. nathan r. shrader, assistant professor, department of political science, millsaps college notes 1 shrader, nathan. “we’ll miss former pennsylvania sen. arlen specter’s clout and courage.” philadelphia daily news, 27 dec., 2010. 2 baer, john. “is toomey mr. demeanor?” philadelphia daily news, 4 march, 2013. 3 pennsylvania department of state. 2010. “2010 general election: official returns.” http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us (accessed april 12, 2013). 101 legislative careerism, institutional resources, and administrative influence over legislative policy making in the american states joshua ozymy texas a & m university, corpus christi denis rey university of tampa samuel s. stanton jr. grove city college this article augments previous findings regarding the impact of legislative professionalization on oversight of state agencies. we examine how the twin processes of institutional professionalization and legislative careerism condition the power relationship between state legislatures and bureaucracies by utilizing individual-level data provided by legislators themselves. our findings suggest that such influence is more nuanced than previously believed. the relationship between careerism and bureaucratic power over legislative policy making is curvilinear, with administrative power varying by the level of professionalism in state houses, and the influence of careerism conditioned by the level of professionalization. democratically elected legislators are afforded the primary responsibility of overseeing the actions of administrative agencies. as this authority has remained constant, many state legislatures have become more professionalized over the past four decades to bolster oversight capacity of 102 legislative policy making in the american states the bureaucracy (king 2000; squire 1992). the added resources—better pay, benefits, and job prestige—make legislative service more attractive and, as a result, enhance legislative careerism (carey, niemi, and powell 2000; rosenthal 1996; squire 2007). scholars have found that while an increase in institutional resources stemming from institutional professionalization enhances legislative influence over agencies, careerism may lessen such influence because the personal incentive for oversight wanes with a constant focus on reelection (rosenthal 1981; woods and baranowski 2006). prior research on the power relationship between legislative principals and administrative agents has generally operationalized influence through surveys of administrative personnel, such as the american state administrators project, that ask administrators how much influence they perceive legislators to possess over administrative policy making (dometrius, burke, and wright 2008; wright and cho 2001). these research designs implicitly argue that professionalization enhances legislative influence that naturally results in lessened agency influence (reenock and poggione 2004; woods and baranowski 2006). studies have generally overlooked how professionalization affects the capacity of administrative agencies to influence legislative policy making. by analyzing the interactive relationship between institutional and individual-level changes brought about by professionalization on administrative influence over legislative policy making, this article expands on previous findings that higher degrees of institutional-level professionalization result in legislators believing that bureaucrats have less influence over legislative policy making. professionalization and power since the legislative-reform movement of the 1960s, state legislatures have generally experienced an enhanced level of professionalism (king 2000). reformers called for increasing the ability of legislators to manage budgetary responsibilities, a complex policy environment, and the evergrowing demands of citizens. the result was increased staff resources, longer sessions, and better pay and benefits for legislators who engendered higher levels of legislative careerism (squire 2007). professionalization thus occurred at two levels: at the institutional level in the form of greater institutional resources, session lengths, and staff, and at the individual level in the form of enhanced legislative careerism (rosenthal 1996). the impact of increased professionalism on state legislatures has been profound. scholars have noted its effects in a variety of areas. for example, fiorina (1997) and dometrius and ozymy (2006) have demonstrated its effect on the partisan distribution of state legislatures. connections have also been drawn between increased professionalism and legislative efficiency (thompson 1986), divided government (fiorina 1994), increased careerism 103 joshua ozymy, denis rey, and samuel s. stanton jr. (squire 1988), and public opinion monitoring and policy responsiveness (maestas 2000; 2003). one important expectation of combining full-time service with enhanced legislative resources was an increased capacity to engage in administrative oversight (dometrius, burke, and wright 2008; gerber, maestas, and dometrius 2005; reenock and poggione 2004). greater service commitments provide additional opportunities to monitor agency actions. enhanced institutional resources, such as more funds for legislative and policy staff, enable legislators to engage in more stringent oversight. the higher pay, benefits, and prestige of service in professional legislatures tends to broaden the candidate pool to include more highly educated individuals (squire 2007). these variables provide professional legislators a distinct advantage regarding their ability to oversee and influence agency behavior. research on how professionalization influences the power relationship between state legislatures and administrative agencies tends to focus on whether added institutional resources and other variables empower legislators (baranowski 2001; gerber, maestas, and dometrius 2005; ogul 1976). little attention is paid to how legislative professionalization affects administrative influence over state legislatures. these studies generally assume a zero-sum game between actors. analysis confirming that professionalization tilts the balance of power in favor of legislators naturally assumes it comes at the expense of agencies. it follows that, holding other variables constant, administrative agencies should enhance their ability to influence legislative policy making as professionalism wanes. previous research demonstrates that increased institutional professionalization weakens agency influence over legislative policy making (carey et al. 2006). theoretically, this result occurs because added institutional resources foster a greater legislative ability to hire staff, develop expertise, and oversee agency actions that enhances legislative influence at the expense of agencies. this work does not go far enough, however, as the impact of institutional resources is ultimately conditioned by how legislators use these resources. legislators do not always possess the appropriate incentives to use resources for oversight. rosenthal (1981) says legislators are likely to spend their time on the job choosing activities that accrue credit with their constituents and bolster their chances of reelection. engaging in higher levels of casework, constituency service, and campaigning becomes even more important as careerism increases and so does the subsequent need for constant reelection. administrative oversight garners little attention from the press or constituents. woods and baranowski (2006) argue that the low visibility of administrative oversight creates a strategic disincentive for legislators with career ambitions to engage in the oversight of state agencies. they state that “career-oriented legislators tend to be far more 104 legislative policy making in the american states focused on electoral concerns and career advancement than on oversight, which is largely ignored by the electorate” (woods and baranowski 2006, 590). in their view, even if institutional professionalization brings a greater capacity to engage in agency oversight, careerists may simply deploy those resources accordingly. “although the resources necessary to engage in active bureaucratic oversight improve with professionalization,” they note, “these resources may increasingly be employed for other purposes” (woods and baranowski 2006, 591). studies suggest that how legislators divide their time on the job is a combination of their incentive structure and the institutional resources available to them (maestas 2003). when resources are constrained, legislators must make strategic choices about how to allocate their time and energy. careerist legislators will no doubt prioritize activities that bolster their chances of reelection. we believe the careerism/oversight trade-off should occur only when institutional constraints force legislators to make such hard choices. once institutional resources rise to a certain point, legislators should not be forced to make such extreme trade-offs. high levels of institutional resources, such as policy and administrative staff, should allow legislators to balance their career aspirations with other less publicly salient activities like administrative oversight. engaging in oversight should lead to greater legislative influence over agencies, and increased institutional resources should further reinforce this relationship, as long as adequate resources exist to accommodate the electioneering needs of careerist legislators. as squire (2007, 214) notes, “a greater number of staff members leads to better-informed legislators, allowing members to have greater influence in the policymaking process. . . . a larger staff base likely improves re-election prospects by enhancing legislators’ ability to provide constituent services.” a marginal increase in resources in amateur legislatures makes little difference to oversight because it is insufficient to reach the minimum threshold needed for legislative autonomy. likewise, a marginal increase in resources in highly professional legislatures makes little difference because they are already well resourced to compensate for the effects of careerism. the largest effect of resources should occur in mid-range professional bodies, which contain higher levels of careerism but lack adequate resources for taking advantage of greater careerism. therefore, we expect the effects of careerism on administrative power over state legislatures’ policy making to be strongest in moderately professional state houses. data individual-level data are derived from a survey of state legislators (carey, niemi, and powell 1995). the survey was conducted by mail 105 joshua ozymy, denis rey, and samuel s. stanton jr. and administered to state legislators in all 50 states during the spring of 1995. former legislators who served in 1993 or 1994 were also surveyed. all members of the upper legislative chambers were surveyed (including nebraska’s unicameral chamber), along with three-quarters of the members of the lower house. the survey yielded a response rate of 47% and 3,542 cases. all states are represented in the survey.1 measuring influence it has become common practice to measure the power relationship between state agencies and the legislative and executive branches with surveys that ask state administrators to rate the influence of these actors on agency discretion. the long-standing american state administrator’s project (asap) is widely used (dometrius 2002; 2008; gerber, maestas, and dometrius 2005; wright and cho 2001), but other similar surveys have also been implemented (reenock and poggione 2004; woods and baranowski 2006). these studies link individual-level data with data on gubernatorial approval ratings (dometrius 2002), formal legislative powers (gerber, maestas, and dometrius 2005), and other variables to assess their impact on agency discretion. one section of the survey asks legislators to report the relative influence of a variety of actors on the legislative process. included in this module is a question measuring the influence of state agencies: “what do you think is the relative influence of the following actors in determining legislative outcomes in your chamber?” [bureaucrats/civil servants].2 this variable is coded on a scale ranging from 1 to 7 where 1 = “no influence” and 7 = “dictates policy.” we use this variable to measure the balance of power between legislators and state agencies (carey et al. 2006; carey, niemi, and powell 1998). six percent of respondents report that agencies have “no influence,” less than 1% respond “dictates policy,” 14% answer “5”, and 22% answer “2.” we recognize the cross-level inference problem posed by testing institutional-level theoretical constructs with individual-level indicators. although legislators’ perceptions of bureaucratic influence is an imperfect measure of bureaucratic influence over the legislature as a whole, in this context it is impossible to create a proper measure of influence at the institutional level without relying on the evaluations of individuallevel actors. studies examining formal characteristics of state political institutions, such as executive power (holbrook 1993) and legislative power over administrative-agency rulemaking authority (gerber, maestas, and dometrius 2005), can measure these institutional-level constructs with institutional-level variables. in the case of more subjective measures, such as political corruption or interest group influence in state houses, studies 106 legislative policy making in the american states turn to individual-level data derived from state house reporters (boylan and long 2003) or state legislators (ozymy 2010) that can best gauge such constructs. our variable for bureaucratic influence falls within these same parameters, and we believe that measuring bureaucratic influence over legislative policy making as a whole can be adequately represented by those who witness this influence first-hand. moreover, careerism is best measured at the individual level, and querying these same individuals about their career aspirations and perceptions of administrative influence best captures this critical relationship. careerism and resources as prescribed by rosenthal (1996) and woods and baranowski (2006), legislative professionalism is divided into careerism and institutional resources. rosenthal (1996) notes that it is difficult to measure the concept of careerism unambiguously, for it is highly multi-faceted. he suggests that it should include more direct measures, such as self-identification by legislators, as well as indirect measures, such as salary (rosenthal 1996, 176). our data include a question that allows legislators to self-identify as careerists, which is our primary indicator of careerism. it asks respondents: “do you think of politics and public office as a career?” this variable is coded as a dummy. given negative public perceptions about careerism in politics (as evidenced by the fact that term limits were about to be instituted in many states shortly after the survey was completed), respondents may be less than forthcoming about identifying themselves as careerists. we try to control for this factor with a measure of legislative tenure capturing the number of terms served in both upper and lower chambers. legislative salary is included as an indirect measure of careerism. we utilize a measure of total compensation (in dollars) that takes into account both salary (in dollars) and per diem payments because most state legislators receive some or most of their pay from the latter (dometrius and ozymy 2006; fiorina 1999). institutional resources are measured by legislative spending, staff resources, and session lengths. total legislative expenditures (in dollars) for 1992 were determined by the survey administrators according to data derived from the book of the states. staff resources are measured by the total number of permanent legislative staff available to each legislature in 1996. the staffing variable is taken from data on total permanent legislative staff in 1996 gathered by the national conference of state legislatures (2004), with the exception of massachusetts where a trend estimate over time was used because data were unavailable for 1996. permanent staff ranged from 18 in wyoming to 3,580 in new york. session length (measured by total days in session) is also taken from ncsl (2004). 107 joshua ozymy, denis rey, and samuel s. stanton jr. additional contributing factors careerism is expected to shift the legislative focus toward electioneering activities (rosenthal 1981). the survey includes questions on the amount of time legislators spend campaigning, engaging in casework, and keeping in touch with constituents. these questions are derived from a module that asks respondents: “how much time do you actually spend on each of the following activities?” [campaigning/fundraising, helping constituents with problems with government, keeping up with constituents]. the variable is coded on a scale ranging from 1 to 5 where 1 = “hardly any” and 5 = “a great deal.” most legislators claimed they spent little time campaigning (modal response = 2), but claimed they spent “a great deal” of time on casework and keeping up with constituents. question responses may be less than candid and possibly represent a positive response bias. caution should be used when interpreting results. legislative power over agencies can be greatly affected by the amount of formal oversight powers possessed by a legislature. we utilize the legislative administrative rules review indicator (larri) developed by gerber, maestas, and dometrius (2005) to control for this factor. this index takes into account the ability of each state legislature to review the rules of state agencies. states are coded 0 = “no legislative rule review authority,” 1 = “advisory authority only,” and 2 = “sanctioning power to change rules.” most states have at least advisory authority, with the modal response being “sanctioning power.” the executive branch can also play a considerable role in organizing and influencing bureaucratic behavior (sigelman and dometrius 1988). to control for this factor, we include holbrook’s (1993) measure of gubernatorial power, which captures the appointive, organizational, and budgetary powers of the executive branch in each state. this index varies in value from the most powerful executive office in alaska (6.70) to the weakest in south carolina (-7.91). additionally, we use data provided by the survey administrators to control for the average amount of legislative turnover from 1992 and 1994, the size of the state’s population, and the gender, race, and family income of each legislator. the summary statistics for the variables are reported in table a1 in the appendix. results to test our hypotheses, we model the relationship between professionalism and administrative influence across all state legislatures to demonstrate the interactive relationship with institutional resources and careerism. we then provide additional analysis by modeling this same relationship across highly professional, moderately professional, and amateur legislatures exclusively. we use a three-part scale constructed by 108 legislative policy making in the american states the ncsl that proves fruitful for this purpose because it takes into account legislative compensation, staff resources, and time spent on the job as measures of professionalism. this scale yields a three-fold categorization of highly professional (red states), moderately professional (white states), and amateur legislatures (blue states). according to the ncsl, in 2008 average legislators in red states spent 80% of their job time engaged in activities related to legislative service, they were compensated at an average pay of $68,599, and they retained an average staff size of 8.9 individuals per member. legislators in white states spent an average of 70% of their time on the job, received an average pay of $35,326, and had an average of 3.1 staff members. blue states are part-time legislatures (54% of the time spent on the job), with low pay ($15,984), and minimal staff (1.2). before moving on to hypothesis testing, we consider two important assumptions about legislative behavior in this context. namely, that professionalization engenders higher levels of careerism and that careerist legislators are likely to spend more time on reelection-oriented activities than are non-careerists. we find both these theoretical assumptions to be empirically supported by the data. figure 1 below compares the level of legislative careerism with legislative professionalism, using the careerism self-identification indicator and the three-group ncsl categorization for professionalism. the data suggest that across the states, legislators are generally more likely to be non-careerists than careerists. there does appear, however, to be a marked trend toward careerism that increases with professionalization. in amateur legislatures 12% of respondents view legislative service as a “career,” compared with 20% of respondents in moderately professional legislatures and 49% in highly professional legislatures. figure 1 legislative careerism versus legislative professionalism in american state legislatures. source: state legislative survey (carey, niemi, and powell 1995) *values are rounded/ weighted. 109 joshua ozymy, denis rey, and samuel s. stanton jr. we now demonstrate that there are appreciable differences in the amount of time that careerists and non-careerists dedicate to electioneering activities. figure 2 compares legislators in the sample who self-identify as careerists (versus those who do not) with the amount of casework and campaigning/ fundraising undertaken while in office. table a2 in the appendix provides fuller analysis of these behavioral differences. the values range on a fivepoint scale from legislators who report engaging in “hardly any” to “a great deal” of such activities. careerists are likely to spend much time on casework (53%) and keeping up with constituents (49%). a mere 14% report that they spend hardly any time fundraising. fewer careerists also report spending a “great deal” of time or close to it studying legislation (28%) and writing new legislation (23%). by contrast, non-careerists report spending much less time on these activities, with 40% spending a great deal of time on casework, 39% keeping in touch with constituents, and 19% seeking pork barrel projects (as opposed to 28% of careerists). twice as many non-careerists as careerists engage in campaigning/fundraising (28% versus 14%). the results of the analysis are displayed in table 1 below as a set of four models. ordered-logit models are chosen in recognition of the ordinally measured dependent variables. model 1 includes respondents from all legislatures and a variable to account for the interactive relationship between legislative resources and careerism. model 2 comprises only legislators from amateur legislatures (blue states). model 3 comprises legislators from moderately professional legislatures (white states). model 4 comprises legislators from highly professional legislatures (red states). figure 2 casework and campaigning differences between careerist and non-careerist state legislators. source: state legislative survey (carey, niemi, and powell 1995) *values are rounded/ weighted. 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 hardly any 2 3 4 a great deal careerist campaigning careerist casework non-careerist campaigning non-careerist casework 110 legislative policy making in the american states model 1 contains three variables that demonstrate a statistically significant relationship with the dependent variable. two indicators for careerism (legislative tenure and total compensation) are not statistically significant. our primary measure of careerism (self-identification) is positively related to the dependent variable. as expected, the finding suggests that higher levels of careerism result in an increase in administrative influence over the legislative process in the states. moreover, an interactive relationship is also present between careerism and institutional resources. the combined impact of careerism and resources has a negative impact on the dependent variable, suggesting that enough resources may override the influence of careerism. the added effect of careerism and institutional resources thus appears to bolster administrative influence over state legislatures. resources may therefore condition the impact of careerism. increased executive power apparently enhances administrative influence over the legislative process. in an effort to refine the analysis further, we turn to the three additional models that divide the analysis into amateur, moderate, and highly professional legislatures. here we are looking more for the significance of the careerism indicators than for the variables for resources. although legislatures do vary in resources within these models, we can better examine resource differences (and their interaction with careerism) across models. the second model for amateur legislatures is quite weak and the model itself is not statistically significant. the main indicators of interest for careerism and institutional resources are not significant either. only casework and constituent service influence the dependent variable. this result is neither surprising nor unexpected since institutional resources do not vary greatly in this sample of legislatures and careerism is much more prevalent in more professional legislatures, where the incentive for career service is greater. 111 joshua ozymy, denis rey, and samuel s. stanton jr. table 1 careerism, legislative professionalism, and administrative influence over legislative policy making in american state houses careerism all legislatures amateur legislatures moderately professional legislatures highly professional legislatures self-identification .35** (.11) .16 (.17) .28** (.13) .01 (.15) lower terms .01 (.01) .00 (.02) .03* (.02) -.05 (.03) higher terms .00 (.01) .01 (.02) .00 (.01) -.02 (.02) total comp. -.00 (.00) -.00 (.00) .00001* (.00006) .00 (.00) institutional resources session length .00 (.00) -.00 (.00) .00 (.00) .01** (.00) permanent staff -.00 (.00) .00 (.00) .001** (.00) -.00 (.00) expenditures .00 (.00) -.00 (.00) -.00001* (.00001) .00 (.00) constituent service campaigning .02 (.03) .04 (.05) .04 (.04) .03 (.07) in touch with constituents -.05 (.05) -.14* (.07) .18** (.08) -.30** (.14) casework .05 (.05) .12* (.07) -.05 (.08) .20 (.13) controls legislative rule review powers -.06 (.04) .07 (.13) -.06 (.06) -.26* (.16) executive power .05** (.02) .06 (.04) -.05 (.04) -.01 (.06) turnover -.00 (.01) .01 (.01) -.02* (.01) .05* (.03) population .00 (.00) .00 (.00) .0001** (.00005) -.00008* (.00004) gender -.14* (.08) -.13 (.13) -.20 (.13) -.12 (.18) race .04 (.03) .02 (.07) .01 (.05) .14* (.07) income -.02 (.03) .03 (.05) -.09** (.05) .03 (.07) expenditures *career -.000003** (.000001) source: state legislative survey (carey, niemi, and powell 1995). model 1 n = 2,876, model 2 n = 1,114, model 3 n = 1,166, model 4 n = 596 ** p< .05 *p< .1 data are weighted. model 1 �2 =34.34, sig. = .01, model 3 �2 =42.57, sig. = .001, model 4 �2 =26.84, sig. = .0. we record model 2 here as a placeholder; it has no statistical significance �2 =18.18, sig. = .3777 112 legislative policy making in the american states the third and fourth models consider the impact of resources and careerism in moderately and highly professional legislatures. these function specifically to test our hypothesis that careerism’s impact on agency influence over legislatures should be greatest when institutional resources are modest. the models confirm this expectation. we find that the careerism effect is actually occurring disproportionately in moderately professional legislatures. it is absent in highly professional legislatures. this pattern is demonstrated with three of our four indicators of careerism, including our direct measure of self-identification and two indirect measures (lower terms served in office and total compensation). all these variables demonstrate a positive relationship with the dependent variable. this result suggests that careerism enhances agency influence over the policy-making process in moderately professional state legislatures, where higher levels of careerism exist, as opposed to more amateur state legislatures; but resources are too modest to compensate for the careerism effect, as in highly professional legislatures. although not as important for hypothesis testing as the effects of careerism, the actual indicators of institutional resources do affect influence in these models. the number of permanent staff has a positive relationship with administrative influence, and expenditures reduce influence in moderately professional legislatures. expenditures and staff are not statistically significant in the fourth model, but session length does affect the dependent variable. while resources influence the dependent variable in both models, they cannot be interpreted by their coefficients alone. resources do not vary to a high enough degree in many respects because the models restrict the cases to legislators in similarly situated legislatures. it is more fruitful to compare the impact of careerism across legislative types, of which the analysis demonstrates that its effect wanes in highly professional legislatures, as expected. the logit coefficients in table 1 do not have a direct, interpretable meaning in relation to the magnitude of change they cause in the dependent variable. one way of considering the magnitude of the effect that logit coefficients have on the dependent variable is to use the standard deviation (sd) of the independent variables to estimate the odds that a one-sd increase or decrease in the value of the standardized independent variable would increase or decrease the value of the dependent variable by one unit of measurement. we use the spost, post-estimation module (long and freese 2005) in stata to create a standardization of the coefficient. table 2 shows changes in the odds. the first model considers these effects within the full sample of legislatures. the results suggest that one standard deviation change in careerism causes a 15% change in the odds that bureaucratic influence would increase. a standard deviation increase in executive power increases the odds of bureaucratic influence increasing by 14%. 113 joshua ozymy, denis rey, and samuel s. stanton jr. table 2 change in odds for standard deviation increase in influence of administrative agencies on legislative policy making in u.s. state houses careerism all legislatures moderately professional legislatures highly professional legislatures career 1.15 (.42) 1.11 (.40) lower terms 1.10 (2.94) total compensation 1.26 (17,732.71) institutional resources session length 1.36 (34.69) permanent staff 1.54 (361.95) expenditures .81 (26,631.94) constituent service in touch with constituents 1.16 (.83) .79 (.76) controls legislative rule review powers .81 (.80) power of executive 1.14 (2.56) turnover .90 (6.26) 1.36 (6.29) population .71 (3255.89) .61 (6367.99) gender .94 (.42) race 1.16 (1.06) income .90 (1.19) expenditures *career 1.00 (59267.39) source: state legislative survey (carey, niemi, and powell 1995). only independent effects with at least p<.1 are reported. data are weighted. left number represents change in odds, and right number is standard deviation. cells in italics represent negative directional relationships. model 2 is dropped as the model chi-square was statistically insignificant. 114 legislative policy making in the american states model 2 reports changes in odds for the statistically significant independent variables in moderately professional legislatures. here the analysis shows that a standard deviation increase in careerism causes an 11% increase in bureaucratic influence. the indirect measure of careerism (previous terms in office) produces a similar result, with a standard deviation increase causing a 10% increase in bureaucratic influence. resources also produce significant impacts in the model, with a standard deviation increase in compensation causing a 26% increase in influence. taken together, the analysis provides important insights into the relationship between legislative professionalism, careerism, and administrative influence over policy making by state legislatures. careerism appears in the first model in table 1 to reduce legislative influence over agencies. this finding is, however, only part of the story. further analysis actually reveals that the impact of careerism is felt mostly in moderately professional legislatures, as we expected. it is generally absent from both amateur and highly professional legislatures. this pattern can be attributed in large measure to the prevalence of careerism in moderately and highly professional legislatures and to a concomitant lack of resources to pursue both the constant reelection type of behaviors required of careerism and unrelated activities, such as administrative oversight in moderately professional legislatures. this finding is partially obscured in the first model. these findings advance our understanding of how the institutionaland individual-level changes that have accompanied legislative professionalization influence the power relationship between state agencies and their legislative principals. discussion this article seeks to provide a better understanding of how legislative professionalization affects the power relationship between state legislatures and administrative agencies. specifically, we focus on how the interaction between legislator careerism and institutional resources affects administrative influence over state legislatures. our findings suggest that such influence appears more nuanced than previously believed. past research has found that the effects of careerism may mitigate those of enhanced legislative resources where administrative oversight is concerned. woods and baranowski (2006) have argued that careerism tempers professionalization in state legislators when it comes to providing oversight because ambitious politicians are more likely to engage in behaviors—such as casework and campaigning—that better serve their interests. thus, as professionalization within legislatures increases, so do 115 joshua ozymy, denis rey, and samuel s. stanton jr. careerism and the need to commit resources toward more fruitful activities. yet such findings and their implications have never been applied to administrative influence over state legislatures. because it utilizes individual-level data provided by state legislators themselves, this research is able to measure careerism among respondents directly as well as indirectly, thereby providing a better model of careerism and explaining its effects on agencies in a way that past research has not appreciated. as stated above, we find a curvilinear relationship between careerism and bureaucratic power over legislative policy making. in moderately professional legislatures, as in the full model, the effects of careerism are such that they actually increase administrative power. our findings suggest indirectly that the effects of careerism are most likely to temper oversight when institutional resources are sufficient enough to matter but not excessive. the capacity for stringent oversight in amateur legislatures, for instance, is virtually nonexistent because of the lack of institutional resources. the incentives for careerism are also small. similarly, within highly professional legislatures we also see that careerism likely has no significant effects on a legislator’s capacity to provide oversight. in these legislatures institutional resources are so abundant that the ambitions of legislators do not lessen bureaucratic oversight, even though legislators may strategically target some activities over others. the abundance of resources essentially negates the narrowing of focus on electoral concerns and career advancement. resources thus have the effect of lessening administrative power in the legislative process. the evidence presented here shows that the relationship between careerism and legislative professionalization is more complex than previously thought. the capacity for administrative oversight varies by the level of professionalization in state houses, and the influence of careerism on such oversight is likewise affected by levels of professionalization. our research suggests at least indirectly that, given enough resources, careerminded legislators will provide bureaucratic oversight, even though they prefer to engage in more self-serving legislative activities. yet institutional resources must be high enough to combat careerism if legislators seek to reduce the power of state agencies over legislative policy making. 116 legislative policy making in the american states appendix table a1 summary statistics. variable mean standard deviation mode careerism self-identifier .23 .43 0 lower terms served 4.13 2.88 6 higher terms served 6.37 3.54 9 total compensation ($) 49,108.19 35,609.23 200 session length 85.75 40.83 90 permanent staff 565.06 773.34 139 legislative expenditures ($) 57,938 70,489 15,956 time campaigning 2.5 1.17 2 keep in touch with constituents 4.13 .91 5 casework 4.15 .93 5 rule review authority 1.25 .8 2 executive power -.003 2.58 -1.27 legislative turnover 26.33 7.82 28 population 5044.2 5162.5 125 gender 1.76 .43 2 race 5.73 1.02 6 income 3.5 1.22 3 dependent variable 3 1 3 source: state legislative survey (carey, niemi, and powell 1995); gerber, maestas, and dometrius (2005); holbrook (1993); ncsl (2004). 117 joshua ozymy, denis rey, and samuel s. stanton jr. table a2 how careerists and non-careerists spend their time in office. frequency % careerist activity hardly any a great deal n studying legislation 1 7 28 36 28 768 developing new legislation 2 9 32 34 23 771 building within party coalitions 5 16 36 31 12 765 campaigning and fundraising 14 28 31 19 8 767 keep in touch with constituents .3 3 15 33 49 771 casework 1 5 11 30 53 770 securing pork 6 10 25 31 28 767 frequency % hardly any a great deal n non-careerist activity studying legislation 1 6 24 38 31 2,479 developing new legislation 4 15 32 32 18 2,479 building within party coalitions 9 18 34 29 10 2,471 campaigning and fundraising 28 31 25 11 5 2,468 keep in touch with constituents 1 6 19 35 39 2,483 casework 1 7 16 37 40 2,483 securing pork 11 16 29 25 19 2,478 source: state legislative survey (carey, niemi, and powell 1995) *values are rounded/weighted notes 1 legislators were sampled in proportion to the state’s population. the minimum sample size for each chamber is 70. for chambers with fewer than 70 legislators, all legislators from that chamber were sampled. the survey contains a weight that corrects for response biases. when weighted the survey is “representative of the population of all state legislators, where each legislator is counted equally” (carey, niemi, and powell 1995). all states are represented in the survey. the largest representation is new hampshire at 6.8% (242 cases), and the smallest is nevada at 0.6% (21 cases), with most states constituting between 1% and 3% of the overall sample (approximately 40–100 cases each). the response totals for each state in the survey are as follows: ak (27), al (73), ar (59), az (40), ca (70), co (45), ct (75), de (27), fl (69), ga (97), hi (31), ia (87), id (50), il (69), in (72), ks (85), ky (66), la 118 legislative policy making in the american states (39), ma (91), md (94), me (110), mi (77), mn (80), mo (80), ms (59), mt (98), nc (115), nd (71), ne (26), nh (242), nj (46), nm (32), nv (21), ny (119), oh (63), ok (63), or (43), pa (103), ri (58), sc (86), sd (52), tn (42), tx (88), ut (54), va (83), vt (89), wa (81), wi (83), wv (64), and wy (44). 2 even though the survey question asks legislators how much influence they think bureaucrats have on legislative outcomes, an inference can be made that the degree of bureaucratic influence directly relates to the amount of control legislators have over executive agencies. a large portion of the literature in this area features research designs that implicitly argue that influence is a zero-sum game, with greater legislative influence naturally resulting in less state agency influence. references baranowski, michael. 2001. “legislative professionalism and influence on state agencies.” 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think about gender and women's representation? commonwealth, volume 21, issue 1 (2021). © 2021 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/com.v21i1.286. all rights reserved. what do pennsylvania voters think about gender and women’s representation? what we learned from 2016 and 2018 exit polls sarah niebler dickinson college a. lanethea mathews-schultz muhlenberg college despite ongoing interest in the role of gender in american elections, highlighted most recently by hillary clinton’s historic bid for the presidency in 2016 and the 2018 “year of the woman” elections, recent studies have shown that gender alone is not enough to explain voter behavior. this is especially true in an increasingly ideologically polarized landscape in which party and ideology retain significant explanatory power regarding electoral outcomes. the saliency of gender identity and gender issues may also vary across time and context. moreover, voters may not have full information about the underrepresentation of women or of the consequences of gender imbalances in elective institutions, raising uncertainty about whether women’s representation in politics matters to voters. in this article, using data from a unique exit poll, we examine the extent to which knowledge about women’s representation and perceptions about gender and women’s issues mattered to pennsylvanians’ vote choice in the 2016 and 2018 elections. we find that neither gender nor party alone can explain men’s and women’s political behavior, but rather that gender and party interact in complex ways. although party continues to be the best predictor of vote choice, gender matters to how voters understand and explain women’s underrepresentation in politics—a finding that has important implications for furthering gender equality in politics in the future. 8 sarah niebler and a. lanethea mathews-schultz while hillary clinton’s historic presidential run in 2016 reignited scholarly interest in the role of women in american politics, donald trump’s unanticipated victory (following a campaign marked by misogyny and boasts about sexually harassing women) may have done more to catalyze activism among women seeking a voice in the political arena. the women’s march on january 21, 2017, was the largest coordinated protest in u.s. history and one of the largest in world history (meyer and tarrow 2018; berry and chenoweth 2018). the newfound sense of solidarity among women evident in the women’s march was further fueled by the #metoo movement later that year; both are at least partially responsible for the emergence of the 2018 year of the woman elections in which a record number of women ran for and won elective office. the 2018 year of the woman shares with 1992— the first year of the woman in which record numbers of women entered the u.s. congress—a context marked by eerily similar high-profile hearings into alleged sexual misconduct on the part of supreme court nominees. the confluence of these events in 2016 and 2018 drew collective attention to the underrepresentation of women and to potential links between gender, women’s issues, and party. clinton, for example, centered her identity as a mother and grandmother within a campaign strategy that made frequent references to families and children, and described herself as a woman embarking on a historic campaign to become the first female president of the united states (chozick and martin 2015; nichols 2017). anti-trump narratives were common and not limited to democrats in 2018, as would be expected during any midterm election from the party not in power. these messages were especially prominent among female democratic candidates, of whom more than half centered their campaigns around women’s issues including reproductive health and the end of sexual harassment and gender violence (often directly referencing #metoo and the kavanaugh hearings). news stories about female candidates—covering women as women—dominated print and social media throughout the campaigns, leading one republican strategist to anticipate “a female revolution” at the voting booth (kapur and mccormick 2018). voters echoed this sentiment in national exit polls on election day with more than 50% saying that electing women to office is important and that sexual harassment is a serious problem facing our nation (cnn 2018). despite the fact that gender was a prominent frame in political discourse in 2016 and 2018, past research suggests that it might not have made much of a difference to voters’ perceptions or to their votes. hayes and lawless (2016) show, for example, that despite the persistence of notions that gender matters to elections (manifest as sexism on the campaign trail or in voters’ gender bias toward candidates), candidates, campaigns, and voters generally divide along what do pennsylvania voters think about gender and women’s representation? 9 the lines of party. vote choice and perceptions of candidates and their campaigns are shaped more by long-standing partisan attachments than by any kind of gender affinity. at first glance, exit poll data seems to confirm the significance of party. while trump’s unexpected victory was born of some crossparty voting by democratic voters in key states (including pennsylvania), 89% of democrats voted for clinton on election day while 88% of republicans voted for trump; this is compared to 2012 when 92% of democratic voters voted for obama and 93% of republican voters voted for romney (cnn 2012; cnn 2016). in the 2018 midterm elections, 95% of democrats voted for a democratic house candidate; 94% of republicans voted for a republican house candidate. in this article we examine questions about the relationship between party identification and gender and how those two variables affect voters’ party identification, vote choices, positions on gender-related issues, and their understanding and knowledge about women’s underrepresentation in electoral politics in the united states. specifically, we ask: did gender transcend party in 2016 and 2018? did voters consider the historic nature of clinton’s candidacy? how did trump’s rhetoric about women shape political behavior in 2016? how did the year of the woman elections in 2018 affect voters’ perceptions about the political arena, women’s representation, and the significance of gender-related issues? drawing on data from unique exit polls conducted in 2016 and 2018 in three pennsylvania counties (allegheny, cumberland, and lehigh), we find that gender impacted voters’ party identification and vote choice, but in different ways between the two years. we also find some evidence for a gender affinity effect as republican women were more likely to support hillary clinton in 2016 than would have been expected considering only party or gender. additionally, we find that neither gender nor party alone is enough to explain how women (and men) understand women’s underrepresentation in politics or how they viewed the political significance of trump’s behavior toward women or the 2018 year of the woman. rather, gender and party interact in complex ways. in particular, partisan identification, not gender identity, seems to best explain how pennsylvania voters considered trump’s comments about women and the kavanaugh nomination, and partisanship also shapes how voters explain women’s underrepresentation in office. this finding lends support to the notion that voters, both men and women, evaluate candidates primarily through the lens of party. gender does have an independent effect, however, when it comes to how men and women interpret the #metoo movement and how they understand explanations for women’s underrepresentation in politics. even taking into account political party identification, female 10 sarah niebler and a. lanethea mathews-schultz voters were more likely than male voters to suggest that overt sexism and lack of party support are responsible for women’s underrepresentation. linking the gender gap to women’s representation among the most notable empirical trends in studies of gender and political behavior is the gender gap in party and voting; that is, women are more likely than men to align with the democratic party and to vote for democratic candidates as compared to their male counterparts. the gender gap was very much apparent in 2016 and 2018. women supported clinton over trump 54% to 42%—at 12%, it is the largest presidential gender gap in voting since 1996 (the average gender gap between 1980 and 2016 was only 8%) (tyson and maniam 2016). among men clinton received the lowest support of any democratic candidate since 1992, gaining only 41% of their votes (presidential gender watch 2017). in 2018 59% of women voted for the democratic house candidate; in the 2014 midterm elections, this figure was only 51%. men split their votes more evenly among democrats and republicans in 2018: 47% of men voted for a house democrat compared to 51% who voted for a house republican. if persistent, the gender gap is quickly complicated upon deeper analysis. frasure-yokley (2018) points out, for example, that the gender gap obscures important differences and sources of heterogeneity in perceptions and attitudes among women (see also cassese and barnes 2019). particularly relevant, with few exceptions (including 1992 and 1996), white women have consistently supported republican presidential candidates. more than one-half of white women supported trump in 2016, suggesting that the gender gap in 2016 was driven by race and gender. while only 43% of white women voted for clinton, 94% of black women did; among men, 82% of black men voted for clinton, compared to 31% of white men (philpot 2018). this is not to suggest that gender is irrelevant to politics, but rather that its explanatory power does not result from a simple “gender-affinity effect.” rather, gender is best understood in interaction with other factors, especially party and gender stereotypes. for example, gender stereotypes matter to the ways that voters evaluate candidates and think about issues. sanbonmatsu (2002) uses gender schema theory to show that many voters are predisposed to support female over male candidates (or vice versa) and that this preference can affect voters’ decisions at the polls. specifically, sanbonmatsu finds that women are more likely than men to have a baseline preference for female candidates. for similar reasons gender stereotypes may shape the ways that voters what do pennsylvania voters think about gender and women’s representation? 11 infer candidates’ ideological orientations (koch 2000). especially important is the extent to which partisanship provides cues to help organize voters’ perceptions of candidates and their understanding and prioritization of issues. democrats and republicans hold different stereotypes about men and women, especially when it comes to candidates’ and officeholders’ issue competencies, leading to differential effects of gender within party (sanbonmatsu and dolan 2009). women, regardless of party identification, are more supportive of an activist government, for example, and more likely to favor more liberal policy positions on a range of issues including the use of force, social policy, and the environment, and they are more likely to rank these issues differently in terms of salience when compared to men (lizotte 2014; ondercin 2017). voters may not always agree with their party on every issue and there may be important differences between men and women on issue positions within their party (lizotte 2014). whether or not gender gaps in perceptions, candidate evaluation, and issue positions hurt or help particular kinds of candidates is unclear. overt sexism does not appear to directly shape voters’ choices (hayes and lawless 2016).1 some research suggests that gender-based stereotypes may reduce the ideological distance between republican female candidates and voters; other research suggests that voters’ gender stereotypes put republican female candidates at a disadvantage (sanbonmatsu and dolan 2009; hayes 2011; see also king and matland 2003). brians (2005) finds that republican female voters are more willing to cross party lines to vote for female candidates, but that democratic female voters are reluctant to do the same. other studies find no consistent pattern between gender stereotypes and vote choice given the strength of party (dolan 2014; hayes and lawless 2016). this is especially the case in an increasingly polarized political environment with record high levels of party voting among lawmakers and increased partisanship among the engaged public (abramowitz 2012). media coverage of national elections sharpens partisan cues, and candidate campaigns orient their messages and issue agendas to reinforce partisanship. in turn, the impact of partisanship on the public’s evaluation of candidates has grown to its highest level in decades (jacobson 2006). in this kind of electoral environment, ondercin (2017) argues, the gender gap is a consequence of voters’ shifting partisanship in ways that are directly tied to gendered social identities. given that voters select the party that best represents their social identities, ondercin suggests, party realignments and shifts in the composition of men and women in elective office send signals to voters about which party best represents them. one of the most notable shifts 12 sarah niebler and a. lanethea mathews-schultz is the increasing numbers of women who have been elected to office in the democratic party (and a corresponding decrease in the numbers of women elected in the republican party). the gender gap, then, is a consequence of changes in men’s and women’s macropartisanship in response to the gender makeup of congressional delegations and to the symbolic images of each party. previous research suggests that in 1992, the first year of the woman, gender was more relevant to political behavior than it had been in previous, and possibly subsequent, elections (k. dolan 2004; sanbonmatsu 2003). sanbonmatsu (2003) argues, for example, that the anita hill testimony during the clarence thomas hearings in 1991 suggested a link between the descriptive and substantive representation of women, providing an issue context favorable for female candidates and heightening voters’ sense of urgency in increasing women’s presence in congress. historic numbers of female candidates in the 1992 congressional elections—when gender issues were particularly salient, female candidates were exceptionally competitive running as women, and the media devoted significant time to covering both—were linked to increased political involvement among women (campbell and wolbrecht 2006; k. dolan 1998, 2004; sapiro and conover 1997; see also koch 1997) and to increased support for electing women to office (sanbonmatsu 2003). kathleen dolan’s research (1998, 2004) notably shows that gender matters to the extent that female voters prefer female candidates and are more likely to consider gender-related issues when voting compared to men. but electoral environment is key: gender matters in certain kinds of information environments in which gender-related issues are especially salient. similarly, although they argue the declining novelty of women as candidates coupled with increased partisan polarization makes sex and gender largely irrelevant to elections, hayes and lawless concede that in some circumstances, such as when “charges of sexism arise” or “when campaigns are explicitly gendered,” gender “can work its way into a campaign” (2016, 9). it is in these cases, they suggest, that gender becomes relevant, newsworthy, and linked to election outcomes. put differently, rather than asking does gender matter?, past research suggests a more appropriate question is when does gender matter? this article examines the extent to which gender was especially salient in 2016 and 2018 in interaction with, and potentially in ways that transcended, political party in shaping voters’ perceptions and explanation of women’s underrepresentation, their attitudes toward gender-related issues, and their voting decisions on election day. what do pennsylvania voters think about gender and women’s representation? 13 research design and methods on election day 2016, students from dickinson and muhlenberg colleges conducted exit polls in cumberland and lehigh counties. in 2018 dickinson and muhlenberg were joined by students from chatham university and the university of pittsburgh who administered exit polls in allegheny county. like most exit polls, the questionnaires in 2016 and 2018 contained questions about vote choice, policy positions, and demographics. particularly relevant to this article were questions about salient gender and women’s issues. in 2016, we asked voters whether treatment of women is a legitimate campaign issue; we also asked voters about their perceptions of trump’s comments on the access hollywood tape. in 2018, we asked voters about their views of the #metoo movement and the nomination of brett kavanaugh to the u.s. supreme court. additionally, in 2018 we asked respondents to estimate the percentage of women in both the u.s. congress and the pennsylvania state legislature since sanbonmatsu (2003) finds that knowledge about women’s representation is related to support for electing women to office. following dolan and hansen (2018) we also asked 2016 and 2018 voters whether they explained women’s underrepresentation as a consequence of voter bias, individual variables (such as family status or career path), or systemic-level variables (including insufficient support from political parties and political elites).2 our pennsylvania exit polls are not meant to represent all pennsylvania voters (and certainly not all voters nationally). rather, these exit polls allow us to examine relationships among multiple variables. in other words, while we would not want to make any claims about how many democrats and republicans are actually in lehigh and cumberland counties (in 2016 and 2018) and allegheny county (in 2018) using just exit poll data, we are confident in our ability to talk about relationships among variables. for instance, our data allow us to understand how gender and party may interact to affect vote choice, and they provide insight into voters’ perceptions of the causes for women’s underrepresentation in the american political system. in 2016, student pollsters talked to 482 voters in cumberland county and 252 voters in lehigh county, for a total of 734 voters overall. in 2018, a total of 1,307 participants responded to the survey—481 from allegheny county, 455 from cumberland county, and 371 from lehigh county. in both years of the survey, because our students talked to a disproportionate number of people who voted for democrats, we weighted the exit poll data. in 2016, we weighted to the presidential vote totals in each county and in 2018 we weighted to the senate vote totals in each county.3 14 sarah niebler and a. lanethea mathews-schultz results we first examine the relationship between gender and party identification since research has identified a significant gender gap in men’s and women’s propensity to identify with the two major political parties. we also include race of respondent since we know that non-white voters are more likely than white voters to identify as democrats than as republicans. table 1 illustrates these results. in the 2016 exit poll, 34% of our total respondents identified as democrats, 48% as republicans, and 18% as independents. when we break this down by gender and race, we see that both non-white women and nonwhite men are more likely to identify with the democratic party than their white counterparts. of non-white women respondents, 55% indicated they were democrats while just 37% of white women said the same (chi-square = 5.312, p = .07). of non-white men, 60% said they were democrats while just 24% of white men replied in the same way (chi-square = 24.503, p < .001). when we look at the gender gap within racial groups, we find evidence for a gender gap between men and women, but only among white respondents (chi-square = 13.515, p = .001). compared to the 2016 exit poll, the 2018 exit poll had a larger percentage of democratic respondents. this is due, in part, to our addition of allegheny county (containing the city of pittsburgh) to the survey, but even within cumberland and lehigh counties, the percentage of democratic respondents increased between 2016 and 2018. table 2 shows the relationship between party identification, gender, and race among our 2018 exit poll respondents. there are no statistically significant differences between women and men, nor between white and non-white respondents with respect to party identification in this non-representative sample. the counties in which we surveyed (with table 1. party identification of exit poll respondents in 2016, by race and gender 2016 all respondents white women respondents white men respondents non-white women respondents non-white men respondents democrats 34% 37%*† 24%*† 55%† 60%† republicans 48% 45%*† 57%*† 29%† 23%† unaffiliated or third-party 18% 18% 19% 17% 18% total 100% (n = 682) 100% (n = 328) 100% (n = 272) 101% (n = 42) 101% (n = 40) * gender difference (within race) is statistically significant (p < .10). † racial difference (within gender) is statistically significant (p < .10). what do pennsylvania voters think about gender and women’s representation? 15 the exception of cumberland county) are more democratic than the state as a whole. further, in 2018, possibly due to an “enthusiasm gap” between democratic and republican voters, especially in mostly white suburban districts (cohn 2018), democrats were more likely to talk with our student pollsters than were republican voters in the precincts we surveyed. especially in 2018, white democrats were more likely to talk with our students than were white republican voters. we next examine the relationship among party identification, race, and gender and vote choice of our exit poll respondents in 2016 and 2018. given the nature of american politics, we expect that party identification will have a significant effect on vote choice across the board. we also include gender, race, age, and education as controls in our models.4 our key variable of interest in this analysis, however, is a binary variable for gop women (coded 1 if respondent was both a republican and a woman). if large numbers of republican women broke with their party and voted for hillary clinton in 2016, that could provide some evidence of a gender-affinity effect. in 2018, both the democratic and republican senate candidates were men (bob casey-d and lou barletta-r), so if republican women broke with their party to support casey, that may point to the increased saliency of women’s issues, #metoo, the women’s march, and heightened campaign and media attention to gender. with respect to u.s. house races, in 2016 all exit poll respondents were in u.s. house districts that were contested only by men in the general election. in 2018, exit poll respondents living in lehigh county were in district 7 in which susan wild (d) competed against marty nothstein (r). all other 2018 exit poll respondents were in house districts in which two men competed against one another. thus we analyze vote choice in the 2018 u.s. house elections in lehigh county separately from the other two counties. table 2. party identification of exit poll respondents in 2018, by race and gender 2018 all respondents white women respondents white men respondents non-white women respondents non-white men respondents democrats 66% 65% 66% 68% 68% republicans 23% 22% 24% 23% 23% unaffiliated or third-party 12% 14% 11% 10% 10% total 101% (n = 1,119) 101% (n = 508) 101% (n = 395) 101% (n = 132) 101% (n = 84) note: there are no gender differences (within race) and no racial differences (within gender) that are statistically significant (p < .10). 16 sarah niebler and a. lanethea mathews-schultz table 3 shows the results of five multivariate logistic regressions predicting when exit poll respondents indicated voting for the democratic candidate across various races. in the first two columns, we see results for elections in 2016; party identification works as we expect with republican respondents being less likely to report having voted for clinton and for the democratic house candidate in their district. race also works as expected, with white voters being less likely to vote for democrats. our key independent variable, gop women, is also significant, but only when the candidate in the race (clinton) table 3. effect of race, gender, and partisanship on vote choice, 2016 & 2018 voted for clinton (d) in 2016 voted for democratic u.s. house candidate in 2016 voted for casey (d) in 2018 voted for democratic u.s. house candidate in 2018 (allegheny and cumberland county respondents) voted for female democratic u.s. house candidate in 2018 (lehigh county respondents) party id –2.997*** (0.255) –2.772*** (0.237) –0.190 (0.108) –0.309* (0.133) 0.004 (0.196) women 0.194 (0.306) 0.264 (0.298) 0.619*** (0.146) 0.645*** (0.178) 0.553* (0.274) gop women 1.169* (0.474) 0.495 (0.492) 0.227 (0.286) 0.505 (0.349) –0.400 (0.522) white –1.146** (0.398) –1.291** (0.406) –1.819*** (0.211) –2.013*** (0.270) –1.699*** (0.393) age 0.158 (0.134) –0.084 (0.136) –0.231*** (0.062) –0.252** (0.075) 0.155 (0.122) education –0.001 (0.002) –0.001 (0.002) 0.055 (0.067) 0.024 (0.081) 0.241 (0.131) constant 6.205*** (0.711) 6.444*** (0.721) 2.038*** (0.367) 2.564*** (0.445) 0.229 (0.733) r2 0.543 0.547 0.097 0.114 0.085 n 677 669 1,081 763 312 dependent variable is binary, coded 1 if respondent answered affirmatively to the question. logistic regression coefficients are provided, with standard deviations in parentheses. *p < .05; **p < .01; ***p < .001 note: exit poll respondents living in lehigh county were all in u.s. house district 7, in which susan wild (d) competed against marty nothstein (r) in 2018. in 2016, all exit poll respondents were in u.s. house districts that featured male candidates. in 2018, all exit poll respondents in allegheny and cumberland counties were in house districts contested only by men. what do pennsylvania voters think about gender and women’s representation? 17 is a woman and not when the candidate is a man (all democratic u.s. house candidates in 2016). as indicated earlier, this provides some evidence for a gender-affinity effect.5 the results of the 2018 elections, also presented in table 3, show more complicated results. despite the polarized nature of american politics, party identification is not consistently significant across all vote choice results. in 2018 republicans reported voting for democrats at much higher rates than they did in 2016.6 additionally, while it is true that casey’s support across the state was higher than clinton’s in 2016 (55.7% to 47.6%), upwards of 70% of all our respondents indicated they voted for casey. we think this could be due, at least in part, to the enthusiasm gap and the proclivity of people who vote for democrats to respond to exit polls, especially those administered by college students. looking at the remainder of the results for the 2018 elections, we see that gender and race both have statistically significant effects across both the senate and house elections. women were more likely than men to vote for democratic candidates as were non-white voters compared to white voters. we do not see any evidence for a gender-affinity effect in 2018 as neither women overall, nor republican women, were more likely to support the democrat in lehigh county (where the democratic candidate was a woman) than in allegheny and cumberland counties (where all the democratic candidates in the u.s. house races were men). our next set of analyses considers the degree to which women and men, and democrats and republicans, viewed the issues surrounding the 2016 and 2018 campaigns differently. in 2016, we included questions on the exit poll centered on the comments trump made about women in the access hollywood tape; in 2018, questions focused on the #metoo movement and the nomination of justice brett kavanaugh to the u.s. supreme court. figure 1 illustrates the effects of gender and partisanship on the 2016 questions while figure 2 shows the same bivariate effects for the 2018 questions. in both figures, the effect of party identification appears to dwarf any effect based on gender of the respondent, with democrats in 2016 being more likely than republicans to say that how candidates treat women is a legitimate campaign issue and that trump’s access hollywood comments affected their decision about whom to vote for in the presidential election. republicans were more likely than democrats to label the access hollywood comments as “typical locker-room talk by men.” in 2018, democrats were more likely than republicans to both have a favorable view of the #metoo movement overall and say that it had a positive impact on them personally. republicans were much more likely than were democrats, however, to support the nomination of brett kavanaugh to the united states supreme court. 18 sarah niebler and a. lanethea mathews-schultz table 4 shows the results of multivariate analyses examining the impact of party identification and gender on the above questions, while also controlling for age and race. the effect of party identification was confirmed by the multivariate models, but beyond party identification, gender was significant in the two models dealing with questions about the #metoo movement. in both instances, women were more likely than men to say that they had a more favorable view of the #metoo movement and that it affected them positively on a personal level. figure 1. effect of gender and partisanship on candidates’ treatment of women and access hollywood tape comments. (source: authors.) figure 2. effect of gender and partisanship on #metoo movement and kavanaugh’s nomination to the u.s. supreme court. (source: authors.) what do pennsylvania voters think about gender and women’s representation? 19 next, before we consider voters’ views of why women are underrepresented in electoral politics, we want to examine whether individuals actually know the extent to which women are underrepresented, especially in pennsylvania’s u.s. house delegation. as mentioned earlier, prior to 2018 pennsylvania’s congressional delegation included no women. on the 2018 exit poll, we asked voters to indicate “how many of pennsylvania’s 18 house of representatives members” are women. of the 1,034 respondents who provided an answer to the question, just 84 (8%) provided the correct response. table 5 considers the extent to which party identification and gender explain a voter’s correct or incorrect response to this question, while again controlling for age, education, and race. as shown, respondents’ party identification was significant while gender was not. republicans were less likely than democrats to know that zero members of pennsylvania’s congressional delegation were women—a reflection, perhaps, of the centrality of women’s representation to campaigns in 2018, nearly all of which were democratic campaigns.7 we find party to be significantly related to voters’ knowledge about women’s underrepresentation, but we are also curious as to how it and gender affect how voters explain women’s underrepresentation. our exit polls in both 2016 table 4. effect of partisanship and gender on trump’s comments about women (2016) and views of #metoo and kavanaugh’s nomination (2018) legitimate issue locker-room talk comments impacted vote favorable view of #metoo positive personal effect of #metoo support kavanaugh nomination party id –1.175*** (0.106) 1.316*** (0.127) –0.858*** (0.101) –1.344*** (0.092) –1.083*** (0.101) 2.385*** (0.136) female 0.159 (0.178) 0.129 (0.187) 0.035 (0.180) 0.349* (0.160) 0.309* (0.134) –0.167 (0.222) age –0.009 (0.093) –0.002 (0.098) –0.025 (0.093) 0.015 (0.073) 0.028 (0.060) 0.391*** (0.101) white 0.095 (0.281) 0.263 (0.329) –0.153 (0.260) –0.157 (0.208) –0.072 (0.167) 0.658* (0.291) constant 2.532*** (0.392) –4.049*** (0.489) 1.212** (0.364) 3.212*** (0.293) 1.036*** (0.241) –7.277*** (0.517) r2 0.169 0.180 0.100 0.210 0.108 0.512 n 665 664 664 1,085 1,094 1,102 dependent variable is binary, coded 1 if respondent answered affirmatively to the question. logistic regression coefficients are provided, with standard deviations in parentheses. *p < .05; **p < .01; ***p < .001 20 sarah niebler and a. lanethea mathews-schultz and 2018 included a series of questions measuring respondents’ perceptions about women’s underrepresentation, allowing us to examine these relationships. we asked voters to select from the following six reasons that might explain women’s low levels of representation: • women are held to higher standards than are men. • many americans aren’t ready to elect a woman to higher office. • women who are active in politics get less support from party leaders. • few women have the experience to run for office. • family responsibilities don’t leave time for politics. • women aren’t tough enough for politics. figures 3 and 4 illustrate the overall percentage of respondents who selected each reason and also breaks down the responses by gender and party identification. in general, reasons summarized in figure 3 can be understood as system-level causes; those included in figure 4 are more individual-level causes. just as with the analyses above, it appears as though party table 5. predictors of correct response to “approximately how many of pennsylvania’s 18 house of representatives members do you think are women?” party identification –0.572** (0.175) women –0.246 (0.231) education 0.094 (0.119) age 0.378*** (0.108) white –0.088 (0.285) constant –2.594*** (0.595) r2 0.044 n 975 dependent variable is binary, coded 1 if respondent answered the question correctly. logistic regression coefficients are provided, with standard deviations in parentheses. *p < .05; **p < .01; ***p < .001 what do pennsylvania voters think about gender and women’s representation? 21 identification is the dominant factor affecting how people understand levels of women’s underrepresentation in american electoral politics. democrats are more likely than republicans to select system-level reasons shown in figure 3, suggesting that women receive less support from party leaders and face discriminatory barriers. republicans, in contrast, are more likely than democrats to select the three reasons shown in figure 4 identifying factors related to individuals (what dolan and hansen call supply-level variables [2018]), such as family status and career paths. figure 3. reasons why more women do not hold elected office in the united states overall, and by gender and party identification. (source: authors.) figure 4. reasons why more women do not hold elected office in the united states overall, and by gender and party identification. (source: authors.) 22 sarah niebler and a. lanethea mathews-schultz we do not simply want to rely on the descriptive data, however, so we ran six logistic regressions where the dependent variable in each is coded as one if the respondent chose the listed reason.8 again, our primary variables of interest are party identification and gender, but we also controlled for age and race.9 table 6 shows the results of each regression. when examining the multivariate results, we see that party identification holds up as a significant predictor of all reasons offered by respondents. after controlling for party identification, only two reasons showed a significant gender effect; women were more likely than were men to say that women are held to higher standards and that women get less support from party leaders. finally, since the questions about women’s underrepresentation in politics were included in both the 2016 and 2018 exit polls, we are able to examine year effects. notably, we find that respondents in 2018 were more likely than respondents in 2016 to say that women get less support from party leaders, but they were less likely to say that women aren’t tough enough for politics. table 6. effect of partisanship and gender on stated reasons why more women don’t hold elected office in the united states higher standards americans aren’t ready less support less experience family responsibilities aren’t tough enough party id –0.957*** (0.084) –0.551*** (0.064) –0.210** (0.063) 0.510*** (0.093) 0.423*** (0.096) 0.485* (0.230) women 0.523*** (0.115) 0.112 (0.101) 0.274** (0.100) –0.129 (0.156) 0.056 (0.161) –0.117 (0.368) age 0.060 (0.053) 0.141** (0.048) –0.149** (0.047) 0.091 (0.075) 0.110 (0.077) –0.000 (0.182) white 0.170 (0.149) –0.038 (0.134) –0.084 (0.133) 0.199 (0.229) 0.344 (0.246) 0.076 (0.561) 2018 0.013 (0.126) 0.232* (0.109) 0.329** (0.108) 0.242 (0.166) 0.044 (0.168) –0.742 (0.394) constant 0.035 (0.253) 0.166 (0.219) 0.080 (0.218) –3.531*** (0.364) –3.579*** (0.381) –4.607*** (0.849) r2 0.096 0.044 0.024 0.031 0.025 0.039 n 1,728 1,728 1,728 1,728 1,725 1,726 dependent variable is binary, coded 1 if respondent selected the reason and zero otherwise. logistic regression coefficients are provided, with standard deviations in parentheses. *p < .05; **p < .01; ***p < .001 what do pennsylvania voters think about gender and women’s representation? 23 discussion and conclusion taken collectively, the results of pennsylvania exit polls conducted in 2016 and 2018 suggest that party, more than gender or women’s issues per se, shaped voters’ views and votes on election day. in this respect, what is most remarkable about the 2016 and 2018 elections might be how little changed. we find that gender mattered in both the 2016 and 2018 elections, but in different ways each year. in 2016 women were more likely than men to say they were democrats, but there was no effect of gender above and beyond party identification when it came to vote choice in either the presidential or u.s. house elections. in 2018, however, we did not see any effect of gender on whether voters consider themselves democrats or republicans, but we saw gender play a role in vote choice, as women were more likely than men to report voting for democratic senate candidate bob casey as well as for u.s. house democrats, regardless of candidate sex. even in electoral environments in which gender-related issues and identities were especially salient, as they were in 2016 and 2018, party affected how voters evaluated the actions of political candidates and considered the relevance of women’s issues. in fact, in 2016 gender did not have any independent effect on how pennsylvania voters explained their views on trump’s statements toward women, nor did gender have an independent effect on pennsylvania voters’ support for the kavanaugh nomination. it did, however, affect their favorability toward the #metoo movement in 2018. to the extent that partisanship is the fundamental lens through which voters assess the relevance and appropriateness of candidates’ behavior toward women, these findings may lend support to the notion that partisanship in the u.s. context increasingly functions as a form of expressive identity (bankert, huddy, and rosema 2017; huddy, mason, and aarøe 2015). these findings may also lend support to the concept of negative partisanship (abramowitz and webster 2016; abramowitz and webster 2017; iyengar and westwood 2015). recent work on partisanship suggests that partisan cues increasingly influence decisions outside of politics, making partisanship not only a political divide, but a social divide as well (iyengar and westwood 2015). partisan identification was the primary lens through which voters—both men and women—evaluated the relevance and saliency of trump’s comments toward women and the kavanaugh nomination. even if voters in lehigh, cumberland, and allegheny counties had reservations about trump’s comments or about the context surrounding the kavanaugh hearings, democrats were far more likely to say that it made a difference to their vote—and, given the strength of partisan attachments, it is highly likely that these voters would 24 sarah niebler and a. lanethea mathews-schultz have voted against trump (or any republican) and for a 2018 democratic candidate anyway. at the same time that we find ongoing support for the centrality of partisan attachments, gender does seem to matter in the ways that voters understand and explain the underrepresentation of women in politics. female respondents to our exit poll believe that electoral politics is not a level playing field for women, and these findings are independent of the effects of party. female respondents were more likely to suggest that female candidates for office are held to higher standards than men and receive less support from party leaders. moreover, when compared to voters in 2016, all voters in 2018— including men and women—were more likely to say that women’s underrepresentation is partially explained by the fact that women receive less support from party leaders. the notion that female candidates receive less support from party leaders has generated some empirical support in studies of republican women’s electoral candidacies and career paths (e.g., rogers 2016; king and matland 2003) and may itself partially reflect the ways in which gender stereotypes interact with party (perhaps leaving republican women in a more difficult electoral situation, as sanbonmatsu and dolan [2009] point out). we also suspect that 2018 was unique in two ways that likely shaped voters’ perceptions of the electoral environment: first, the 2018 midterms followed closely on the heels of the defeat of the first major-party female presidential nominee; and second, the 2018 year of the woman elections featured women running as women, more than one-half of whom campaigned on women’s issues, including structural gender-based discrimination. in this context, it is not especially surprising that survey respondents in 2018 were more likely than those in 2016 to say that many americans weren’t ready to elect women to political offices. finally, in 2018, with historically high numbers of women running for office, voters were less likely to believe that women aren’t tough enough for politics. while our findings suggest that female respondents to our exit poll clearly perceive gender and gender discrimination to be relevant to women’s electoral success, we also find that party has an independent effect on issues related to women’s representation. republicans and democrats who responded to our exit poll offer divergent explanations for women’s underrepresentation in politics. republicans pointed to family responsibilities, women’s lack of experience, and women’s lack of toughness; democrats were more likely to look to unequal standards, voters’ sexist voting behavior, and lackluster support for women from party leaders. put differently, republicans emphasize candidatecentered explanations while democrats emphasize systemic, institutional, or what do pennsylvania voters think about gender and women’s representation? 25 discriminatory explanations.10 although we do not have empirical support from our exit poll, we suspect that this partisan divergence could be indicative of ideological sorting, with republicans increasingly identified and aligned with traditional family values and democrats aligned with progressive policy issues, including increasing opportunities for women in previously maledominated domains. notes 1. there has been a surge of recent research on the role of sexism in shaping political behavior and electoral outcomes in recent elections. see cassese and holman (2019); paul and smith (2008); ratliff et al. (2019); schaffner, macwilliams, and nteta (2018); streb et al. (2008); and valentino, wayne, and oceno (2018). 2. see https://sarahniebler.com/data/ for complete survey questionnaires and toplines by county for 2016 and 2018. 3. weights were calculated separately by county, meaning that voters who completed surveys in allegheny county were weighted to the vote totals of that county, those in cumberland county were weighted to the vote totals of that county, and respondents in lehigh county were weighted to the vote totals of that county. survey weights of respondents who indicated they did not vote in the presidential election remained at 1.0, and all other weights were adjusted slightly so that the total number of respondents remained the same. as mentioned, our student interviewers spoke to a larger percentage of clinton voters than trump voters, so respondents who voted for trump were weighted up while respondents who voted for clinton were weighted down. 4. the independent variables are coded as follows: partyid (1 = democrat; 2 = independent; and 3 = republican); women (coded as 1 if yes); age (1 = 18–29 years old; 2 = 30–49 years old; 3 = 50–64 years old; and 4 = 65+ years old); education (1 = less than high school; 2 = high school graduate; 3 = some college or technical school; 4 = 4-year college graduate; 5 = graduate or professional degree). 5. a gender affinity effect could also be present if large numbers of democratic men broke with their party to support trump in the 2016 election. we did not find that to be the case, however. in fact, running the same multivariate model as in table 3, column 1, but replacing “gop women” with “democratic men” we find democratic men also to be more likely to support clinton than would be expected based on either their party or gender alone. we think this is due to the fact that such a high percentage of men identify as republicans and therefore the overall expected level of support for clinton among men is low. complete results of this analysis are available upon request. 6. they were not, however, “secret democrats” based on their responses to issue questions that were included in the survey. republicans were less likely than democrats to support increased gun regulations and were more likely than democrats to say that the united states and other countries were doing enough to combat climate change. interestingly, however, in our sample there were no differences between democrats and republicans with respect to their levels of approval for the job donald trump is doing as president. 7. of the eight women who ran for congress in 2018 from pennsylvania, only one, pearl kim, ran as a republican; she ran against another female candidate, democrat mary gay scanlon, in the 5th congressional district. the 5th congressional district 26 sarah niebler and a. lanethea mathews-schultz covers delaware county as well as small portions of montgomery and philadelphia counties. 8. many exit poll respondents offered additional reasons by selecting “other” and writing-in an open-ended response. in both 2016 and 2018, men were more likely than women to select “other” and to offer factors such as “don’t run enough,” “don’t have an interest in running,” “more women need to run,” “sexism,” “need the right candidate,” “misogyny and its influences,” and “incompetent electorate.” 9. we also ran versions of these models that considered the knowledge question as an independent variable predicting the reasons respondents believe women are underrepresented in politics, but it was only asked in 2018. in these models, controlling for the same variables above, we found that voters’ accurate knowledge about the absence of women from pennsylvania in the house was only significantly related to the view that women lack the necessary experience for political office. in that model, voters who correctly answered “0” were more likely to say that women lack necessary experience for political office. although limited, this finding is consistent with dolan and hansen (2018), who find that people with higher levels of political knowledge are less likely to attribute women’s underrepresentation to discrimination or systemic causes. 10. a related finding about the views and beliefs of republican and democratic party activists found that republicans and democrats hold varying views on the existence of structural discrimination, with republicans largely dismissing sex discrimination as holding women back, and democrats viewing it as an ongoing problem (see strolovitch, wong, and proctor 2017). references abramowitz, alan. 2012. the polarized public: why american government is so dysfunctional. new york: pearson. abramowitz, alan, and steven webster. 2016. “the rise of negative partisanship and the nationalization of u.s. elections in the 21st century.” electoral studies 41 (march): 12–22. ———. 2017. “‘negative partisanship’ explains everything.” politico, september/ october. available at https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/09/05/negative 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/uploads/2017/05/finding-gender-in-election-2016.pdf. ratliff, kate a., liz redford, john conway, and colin tucker smith. 2019. “engendering support: hostile sexism predicts voting for donald trump over hillary clinton in the 2015 us presidential election.” group processes & intergroup relations 22 (june): 578–593. rogers, kathleen. 2016. “the women of the pennsylvania general assembly: explaining women’s representation in pennsylvania politics.” commonwealth: a journal of pennsylvania politics and policy 18 (2): 103–123. sanbonmatsu, kira. 2002. “gender stereotypes and vote choice.” american journal of political science 46 (january): 20–34. ———. 2003. “gender-related political knowledge and the descriptive representation of women.” political behavior 25 (december): 367–388. sanbonmatsu, kira, and kathleen dolan. 2009. “do gender stereotypes transcend party?” political research quarterly 62 (september): 485–494. sapiro, virginia, and pamela johnston conover. 1997. “the variable gender basis of electoral politics: gender and context in the 1992 us election.” british journal of political science 27 (october): 497–523. schaffner, brian f., matthew macwilliams, and tatishe nteta. 2018. “understanding white polarization in the 2016 vote for president: the sobering role of racism and sexism.” political science quarterly 133 (march): 9–34. streb, matthew j., barbara burrell, brian frederick, and michael a. genovese. 2008. “social desirability effects and support for a female american president.” public opinion quarterly 72 (1): 76–89. strolovitch, dara, janelle wong, and andrew proctor. 2017. “a possessive investment in white heteropatriarchy? the 2016 election and the politics of race, gender, and sexuality.” politics, groups, and identities 5 (2): 353–363. what do pennsylvania voters think about gender and women’s representation? 29 tyson, alec, and shiva maniam. 2016. “behind trump’s victory: divisions by race, gender, education.” pew research center, november 9. available at http://www .pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/behind-trumps-victory-divisions-by-race -gender-education/. valentino, nicholas a., carly wayne, and marzia oceno. 2018. “mobilizing sexism: the interaction of emotion and gender attitudes in the 2016 us presidential election.” public opinion quarterly 82 (special issue): 799–821. sarah niebler is an associate professor of political science at dickinson college. her research and teaching interests are in american politics, specifically political behavior, campaigns and elections, and public opinion. sarah’s scholarly work has been published in the american journal of political science, legislative studies quarterly, political communication, the journal of public economics, the journal of elections, public opinion & parties, and american politics research. additionally, her research and analysis has been featured on npr’s “hidden brain,” and in the hill and roll call, among others. a. lanethea mathews-schultz is professor and chair of political science at muhlenberg college. her research areas of interest include gender and american political development, civic engagement and political participation, and teaching and learning in political science. she is particularly interested in understanding how, when, and with what consequence relationships between citizens and political institutions change over time. her publications have appeared in political research quarterly, social science history, and politics & gender. structure bookmarks linking the gender gap to women’s representation research design and methods results discussion and conclusion notes references microsoft word volume15.doc commonwealth: a journal of political science  volume 15, number 2  september 2009  2009 ppsa/lorl, pa house of reps. issn 0890-2410 the unlikely election and service of john inscho mitchell, u.s. senator from pennsylvania, 1881-1887 david r. white1 francis marion university john inscho mitchell was a little known progressive pennsylvania politician who represented the state in the u.s. house of representatives and the u.s. senate between 1877 and 1887. his reluctance to continue serving in washington after fours years in the house did not prevent the pennsylvania legislature from appointing him to the u.s. senate in 1881 as a compromise candidate on the thirty-fifth ballot. ennsylvanian john inscho mitchell had a lengthy and varied career of public service. it began in 1868 when the former teacher, union army captain, and lawyer was elected tioga county’s district attorney. after a stint editing a local newspaper in 1871, mitchell represented tioga county in the pennsylvania house of representatives between 1872 and 1876. the republican was then elected to the u.s. house of representatives where he served from 1877 to 1881 (national cyclopaedia 1954). deciding not to seek reelection in 1880, he no doubt looked forward to returning to his tioga county law practice full time and leaving politics behind. that was not to be, however, after mitchell was elected by the newly republican-controlled state legislature to be the new u.s. senator from pennsylvania, defeating the incumbent and first-term democrat william wallace. although his election to the senate broke a legislative stalemate in 1881, his six years there were not easy. philadelphia businessman wharton barker, an independent republican who helped engineer james garfield’s election to the presidency in 1880, was a natural ally who may have had a hand in mitchell’s own election to the senate (evans 1960). yet, the divided republican party and the overshadowing presence of fellow pennsylvanians j.d. cameron, the state’s senior senator, and matthew quay, mitchell’s ultimate successor in the senate, may have undermined mitchell’s political clout since both cameron and quay p 2 the unlikely election and service of john inscho mitchell, u.s. senator from pennsylvania, 1881-1887 were “stalwart republicans” and leaders of pennsylvania’s republican party “machine.” this article focuses on mitchell’s election to the senate in 1881 and his six-year term in office. mitchell’s unlikely election to the u.s. senate mitchell was first elected to the u.s. house of representatives in 1876 to represent pennsylvania’s 16th congressional district located in the state’s “northern tier.” he outpolled democratic candidate henry white by a vote of 13,575 to 12,097, but his bare majority of the total vote (50.3%) was surprising given that the republican presidential candidate, james garfield, won more than twice as many votes as his democratic rival in mitchell’s home county of tioga. that slim majority looked downright impressive in 1878, however, after mitchell was reelected with a plurality of just 11,113 votes (41.0%). j.f. davis of the greenback party was second with 37.4% and democrat r.b. smith was a distant third with 21.6% (congressional quarterly’s guide to u.s. elections 2001, 920, 924). but mitchell’s two terms representing pennsylvania’s 16th congressional district were time-consuming financial and political burdens. announcing his decision not to seek reelection in 1880, mitchell wrote: the salary now paid is sufficient, if there could be any reasonable certainty of tenure without the necessity of paying heavy election expenses. but these, with those necessarily incident to the office and family expenses, leave very little of the salary as a compensation for time and labor, and practically nothing for support in after life. if truly devoted to his work, a member of congress can find no time for private business. his vacations must be wholly given to study. he is never without work for a rainy day or a dark night. the vast field of political science lies ever open before him, and to succeed well he must never tire of exploring it. . . . it is not a paying business, except in the knowledge acquired (“a statesman’s qualifications” 1880). still, mitchell thought that serving in congress would be “the most inspiring of all professions” if it were “free from electioneering scrambles and factious squabbles within one’s own party” (“a statesman’s qualifications” 1880). aware that political power coincided david r. white 3 with long tenure in office—and that he desired neither—mitchell also thought his constituents would be wise to elect someone who actually wanted to stay in office. “i can only urge the selection of a successor worthy of long continuance in the public service, with the hope that he may be retained long enough to make him more useful than any man can be without such experience. neither local ambition nor personal preference should be permitted to interfere with the tenure of such a man, so long as he remains faithful and efficient in office” (“a statesman’s qualifications” 1880). but as the narrow wins in his two previous house races suggest, his decision not to seek reelection may have been more politically realistic than personally altruistic. during the 1880 campaign, the democratic and greenback parties formed a fusion ticket that came within only one percentage point of defeating mitchell’s republican successor, robert j.c. walker, who received 17,850 votes (50.8%) compared with the fusion ticket’s 17,304 votes (49.2%). the “squabbles” mitchell was referring to were within his own republican party. a significant divide had developed in those years, both nationally and in pennsylvania, between the old guard political bosses— better known as the “stalwarts” or “regular” republicans—and a less coherent group opposed to political bossism composed of various factions referred to as “insurgents” and “independents,” or “halfbreeds,” as the “old guard” derogatorily referred to them. during the 1870s and 1880s, the pennsylvania old guard was led by senior u.s. senator simon cameron; cameron’s son and successor in the senate, j.d. cameron; and commonwealth secretary matthew quay. these men strengthened their power and promoted their causes through federal and state political patronage appointments. as a “reformer,” mitchell was not a member of the old guard, so leaving the house of representatives was probably not a difficult decision for him. the infighting within the republican party that made mitchell’s life as a congressman difficult also complicated the selection of a u.s. senator in 1881. prior to the enactment of the seventeenth amendment in 1913, u.s. senators were chosen by the members of their respective state legislatures rather than directly by the voting public. neither the state’s stalwarts, nor the half-breeds, nor the democrats had the majority of votes needed in a joint session of the state legislature to give the u.s. senate seat to one of their own. 4 the unlikely election and service of john inscho mitchell, u.s. senator from pennsylvania, 1881-1887 the result was a political stalemate that began with the first vote for u.s. senator on january 18, 1881. under an 1866 law attempting to clarify and standardize u.s. senate election procedures, each house of a state legislature began the election process by holding separate votes for senator. if one individual received a majority of votes in each chamber, that individual was elected senator. if no individual received the necessary majorities, the law directed the two chambers to meet jointly beginning the next day and to vote daily (at least once) until a senator was elected by a majority of the collective gathering. rather than use secret balloting, the law required votes to be viva voce (garrison 1891, 229; haynes 1906, 23–25). republican support was split between the cameron-backed candidate, iron and steel magnate henry oliver, and the reformist halfbreed candidate, former u.s. congressman galusha grow. as days and votes passed, efforts were made to find a compromise republican candidate, but the impasse remained as these discussions would frequently revert back to the candidacies of oliver and grow. meanwhile, democrats continued to push for the reelection of their party colleague, william wallace, the first-term incumbent. a potential breakthrough came on february 9 when the rank-and-file of each republican faction publicly supported a new candidate. the stalwarts shifted their support from oliver to brigadier general james beaver; the half-breeds moved from grow to u.s. representative thomas m. bayne. the result after the twenty-second ballot was still a deadlock, however, with democrat wallace receiving a plurality of the votes, beaver and bayne splitting the majority republican votes, and 11 other candidates combining for 24 votes. a more significant change came a week later when republican legislators from both sides agreed to a proposal that had been floating among them: the establishment of a committee of 24 legislators—chosen equally from members of each faction—that would try to find a compromise candidate. it was in this committee on february 18, during its fifth ballot, that congressman john mitchell first received votes for the contested u.s. senate seat. but as the day progressed through eight more ballots, mitchell’s limited support declined to nothing and remained there through eight more committee votes the following monday, february 21. david r. white 5 on the evening of tuesday, february 22, for reasons that newspaper reports do not make entirely clear (it might have been the new support of senator j.d. cameron, the rapidly approaching congressional session, or legislators’ election fatigue), quiet efforts to end the stalemate finally came to fruition: as soon as the committee was called to order, senator cooper moved that a ballot be taken for a candidate for senator. this was agreed to, and the secretary began to call the roll. mr. billingsley, a regular, was the first called, and he responded with the name of john i. mitchell. senator cooper, also a regular, followed for mitchell. next came senator davis, an independent, who also voted for mitchell. this was the first ray of light which pierced the gloom which has so long hung over the political field here in pennsylvania. as the names were called, all responded by naming mitchell, and when mr. wolfe’s name, the last on the list, was reached, and mr. wolfe too voted for mitchell, making him the unanimous choice of the committee, a cheer loud and long continued rent the air, and the most frantic demonstrations of joy were made, the members grasping each other by the hand and yelling until they were red in the face (“a long dead-lock broken” 1881). the following morning, the 42-year-old mitchell received by acclamation the republican u.s. senate nomination from his party caucus, and on the legislature’s thirty-fifth ballot he was elected pennsylvania’s junior member of the u.s. senate, receiving 150 votes to wallace’s 92 (two other candidates received one vote apiece). reaction to mitchell’s selection was mixed but generally positive. as the new york times reported: mr. mitchell has won a high place in his profession. during his service in the legislature he displayed conspi[c]uous ability, leading that body with a clearness of head and steadiness of hand unequaled since the days when thaddeus stevens occupied a seat therein. of fine personal appearance, a speaker of great power and eloquence, a fine scholar, possessing a large fund of information, is a stalwart republican and a sound, safe, legislator (“a long deadlock broken” 1881). a washington post editorial stated that mitchell “has always preferred the ways of peace and pleasantness rather than the war-path. for this reason he may be regarded as a near approximation to a neutral 6 the unlikely election and service of john inscho mitchell, u.s. senator from pennsylvania, 1881-1887 in the contest of the pennsylvania factions” (editorial 1881). yet, one of the two republican state representatives who refused to vote for mitchell did so because he did “not regard that gentleman as a fair representative of the [independent] principles for which they have been fighting.” the second explained that he did “not regard mr. mitchell as worthy of his vote” (“confirming the choice” 1881). a day later, the new york times voiced major disappointment with mitchell’s election, stating that mitchell “is certainly not a brilliant man” and that there were “a very considerable number of persons who hoped to see the state represented by a senator of first-rate abilities, such as would place him in the first rank at washington.” nevertheless, the times found much to praise in mitchell, calling him “a man of intellectual force” who “reads much” and “the ablest member of the pennsylvania delegation in the house,” based upon “the strength of [his] character and unassailable private and public record which all accord him by common consent” (“mr. cameron’s new colleague” 1881). nor was opinion unanimous regarding which republican camp mitchell favored. as the washington post’s editors noted two days after his election, “it has been demonstrated that he is a cameron man. it has been proven that he is anti-cameron” (editorial, 1881). agreeing with the latter assessment, the new york times wrote that “the claim that mr. mitchell is ‘a cameron man’ is not only not true, but the currency given to it is both foolish and mischievous” (“mr. cameron’s new colleague” 1881). the harrisburg daily patriot suggested the opposite might be true. it reported that “mr. cameron at washington has had mr. mitchell’s name under consideration for some time [and] yesterday the supporters of the machine were informed that it was acceptable to the boss” (“mitchell the man” 1881). mitchell’s acceptability, however, probably had less to do with any political kinship between him and cameron than with the rapidly approaching senate session and the desire of the republican caucus to regain control of the chamber. mitchell’s burdensome senate service thanks to the election of mitchell, when the new senate convened in special session in march to organize its officers and confirm presidential nominations, it consisted of an equal number of republicans and democrats (37), along with two independents (but not independent david r. white 7 republicans). this unusual chamber distribution caused a stalemate in the senate’s organization and legislative work. the democrats, whose majority control of the chamber in the previous congress had ended a 20-year drought, refused to relinquish easily their control of the committee and patronage positions that they had just recently earned. the republicans, meanwhile, planned on using vice president chester arthur’s republican vote in the senate to break any tie votes and to take back control of the chamber, something that would not have been possible without the republican mitchell in their ranks. republicans temporarily gained the upper hand when they convinced freshman virginia senator william mahone, a member of the readjuster party, to vote with them on committee organization. the other independent voted with the democrats. but a combination of republican absences and resignations during the senate’s session ultimately gave the democrats a two-vote majority. compromise resulted in senators accepting both the republican-led committees and the democratic-appointed staffers (u.s. congress, senate 2001). during the two special senate sessions that began his new career during the 47th congress, mitchell was assigned to the patents committee as well as to the pensions committee. he was also named chairman of the committee on the improvement of the mississippi river and tributaries, in addition to being placed on a special committee “to inquire into all claims of citizens of the united states against the government of nicaragua.” later in the same session of congress, mitchell was assigned to both the committee on civil service and retrenchment and a special committee “to investigate the administration of the collection of internal revenue in the 6th district of north carolina.” his chairmanship of the mississippi river committee was important not for the public policy he would oversee, but for the clerk he was empowered to hire. not until 1884 did the senate pass a resolution allowing all senators, not just those chairing committees, to hire a clerk at government expense to assist them in their duties (u.s. congress, senate 1893, 147, 208). mitchell’s service on the senate pensions committee, which he chaired during the 48th and 49th congresses, was a major part of his senate workload. “[t]he pensions committee takes very much of my time,” he wrote on december 13, 1882, before even assuming the chair (barker). this committee, which oversaw the interior department’s 8 the unlikely election and service of john inscho mitchell, u.s. senator from pennsylvania, 1881-1887 pension commission, which in turn handed out military pensions, was often the last resort for veterans and their widows and children seeking pensions that the commission had denied. scores of private pension bills were introduced in each new session of congress with the sole purpose of granting single individuals a federal government pension. the pensions committee had the onerous task of investigating and reporting upon all these claims. in mitchell’s own tioga county, 652 residents received a pension from the u.s. government at the beginning of 1883 (u.s. congress, senate 1883). likely adding to the frustration of mitchell and his committee colleagues, president grover cleveland vetoed an enormous number of private pension bills after taking office in 1885. a senate document from 1886 notes that of the 113 bills president cleveland vetoed between march 10 and august 4, 1886, 101 were vetoes of private pension bills (u.s. congress, senate 1886). letters mitchell penned early in his term to philadelphian wharton barker suggest that dealing with federal patronage appointments for pennsylvanians and searching for a middle ground between the republican party factions also took up a great deal of mitchell’s time. for example, on march 15, 1881, less than a month after he had been elected senator, mitchell wrote a letter to barker citing the efforts of certain individuals holding or seeking such federal government appointments as “appraiser in the custom house,” “register of the treasury,” “bank examiner of western pennsylvania,” “surveyor,” “minister of mexico,” “collectorship,” and “postmastership” (barker). mitchell was not alone, of course, in attempting to influence the government hiring process. senators new and old were besieged by office seekers during that era, and as many as a dozen might press their claims for the same position, be it postal clerk or cabinet member (calhoun 1996, 195). this part of their job became so time-consuming that a senate report on the subject griped that “strength is exhausted, the mind is absorbed, and the vital forces of the legislator, mental, as well as physical, are spent in the never-ending struggle for offices” (u.s. congress, senate, committee on civil service 1882, iii). nevertheless, it was the keen ability to control federal (and sometimes state) government patronage that aided many u.s. senators, including pennsylvania’s j.d. cameron, in running the state political party machines that helped keep them in office. david r. white 9 the ultimately fatal shooting in the summer of 1881 of newlyelected president james a. garfield by a disgruntled office seeker added to the uniqueness of senator mitchell’s first year in the senate. the assassination proved to be the catalyst for one of the few notable pieces of legislation enacted during the highly partisan 47th congress: the pendleton civil service reform act. as mitchell wrote in may of 1883, “when i left there in august very few if any would entertain the proposition of civil service reform by act of congress. when we met in december all was changed” (barker). early in his term mitchell was hopeful about bridging the gap between the stalwarts and the independents, but he recognized that doing so would require compromise on the part of both sides. he seemingly took great pains to remain neutral in pennsylvania republican party politics. as he wrote in a letter on march 15, 1881, soon after taking office: i think [senator cameron] is fully convinced that it is necessary to the welfare and continued supremacy of our party to defer in such instances [of presidential appointments] to that independent sentiment which found expression openly at harrisburg in the late contest. how far he will go in the direction remains to be seen, but i trust that he will act easily and discretely in this direction, and that the leaders of the independent movement in our state will be disposed to meet him at least half way. i consider the encouragement of this spirit on both sides absolutely essential to the welfare of the party in our state, – and i shall do all within my power to bring about harmony and unity between these elements (barker). on december 20 of the same year he wrote, “[m]y desire when elected was, and still is, to do everything possible to have both elements [of the republican party] fairly represented and recognized in appointments and nominations” (barker). mitchell’s efforts at neutrality and fairness were not always accepted, even by his natural allies. he seemed particularly wounded when attacked by independents who thought he was not working hard enough for the cause. in that same letter of december 20, mitchell lamented: i have stood i think firmly and fearlessly against many things that senator cameron has been disposed to push, but mr. wolfe and 10 the unlikely election and service of john inscho mitchell, u.s. senator from pennsylvania, 1881-1887 that class of people appear to give me no credit for so doing, while on the other hand i have received a cold shoulder from the other side, and thus my expectation has been largely realized by the grinding process which still goes on between the two factions. i have a complaining letter again from mr. wolfe, and he appears to me to be so unjust to me, and so extreme in his views, that it is already impossible for me to satisfy him” (barker). throughout his career mitchell was well aware of both his personal and political limitations. “i assure you that i am more sensible of my shortcomings than any one else possibly can be,” he wrote on december 13, 1882. “had i expected what has followed from this conflict, i would not for one moment have contemplated acceptance of this place” (barker). “i do not forget,” he added, “that i am the product of a party difficulty and that the divisions which made me possible as a senator have absorbed most of my thought since i came to the senate” (barker). six months earlier he had confessed that “i do not even want to be a leader, much less a boss. i have no further political ambition. my only desire is to see the party’s wrongs righted, and the public since improved” (barker). in a letter dated december 13, 1882, mitchell revealed that his frustrations with republican party factionalism were matched by his frustrations with his inability to do adequately the job to which he had been elected: positively i have no time to study anything thoroughly. as i write, a basket of letters lie unanswered and many unopened. in the morning i should attend a committee but i must go to see the secretary of the treasury upon an application for appointment to keep my word given before i had notice of the committee meeting. so it goes continually. we adjourned in august and i did not have one month for rest after that. i did not even have time to read the evidence taken by the tariff commission. i have not read the departmental reports in which i am most interested, and i write you after midnight. my health is anything but good and i very often feel that i am utterly unfit and unworthy [of] the great place i hold. . . . [g]entlemen out of public life have far better opportunity to study public questions than those who have to do for great states and people within it (barker). david r. white 11 as mitchell’s term progressed, his efforts at neutrality between the stalwarts and independents gave way to both private and public disdain for political bossism, along with growing skepticism about senator cameron’s actions. “i only want the most careful deliberation and decision by those who now represent the cause we love and hope to have triumphant,” he wrote on june 14, 1882. “the danger is that any triumph which may be achieved by any united action which secures the cooperation of the boss committee will be heralded as a victory for the machine” (barker). just a week earlier, however, mitchell had insisted that the end of political bossism was at hand. “the bosses no longer run the people: the people have taken the reins into their own hands, and they will never in your or my time give them back” (barker). whatever his views at that particular moment, mitchell left no doubt as to which side of the debate he ultimately favored when in october 1882 he wrote an essay for the north american review titled “political bosses” in which he advocated their abolition. more than anything else, mitchell’s letters to barker reveal his dislike for hardball politics and his anxiety about his future. on june 7, 1882, while in his second year in the senate, mitchell bemoaned the personal and financial price his senate term was costing him: “i am weary of the weight of life, with separation from my family and friends and from that neighborhood life which is the only true life; and when it is known that my estate is so limited that i have practically nothing for old age and little for my family and that six years here will leave me with nothing to show for them, you will see why i want nothing for myself from this or any political movement” (barker). conclusion given his increasing disenchantment with politics, it is hardly surprising that mitchell did not seek reelection to the senate. he missed his home and family, his pensions committee workload was oppressive, and republican factionalism was no less prevalent at the end of his term than it had been at the beginning of it. in any case, mitchell never really had much chance of being reelected. after all, he had been a compromise u.s. senate candidate, and his nomination and appointment occurred only after an exhausting 34 rounds of fruitless legislative balloting. with no natural political constituency, pleasing the “party faithful” had always 12 the unlikely election and service of john inscho mitchell, u.s. senator from pennsylvania, 1881-1887 been an uphill battle for him. moreover, the ambitious republican political boss and recently elected state treasurer, matthew quay, had his eyes on mitchell’s seat, as did barker and other insurgents. mitchell’s service to pennsylvania did not end with his congressional career. he went on to become judge mitchell, a position that seems better suited to his temperament and his desire to remain close to home. he served on the court of common pleas of the 4th pennsylvania district for 11 years (1888–1899) before briefly becoming a judge of the superior court of pennsylvania. he died in wellsboro on august 20, 1907, in the same county where he had been born and in the place where he had seemed happiest. notes 1 i am grateful to dr. harold cox, professor of history emeritus and university archivist at wilkes university, and to nancy kervin, senior reference librarian at the u.s. senate library, for their help with this article. financial support was provided by francis marion university and its professional development committee. references “a long dead-lock broken.” 1881. new york times, february 23. “a statesman’s qualifications.” 1880. new york times, june 3. barker, wharton. papers. washington, d.c.: library of congress. [no date]. calhoun, charles w. 1996. “the political culture: public life and the conduct of politics.” in the gilded age: essays on the origin of modern america, ed. charles w. calhoun. wilmington, de: scholarly resources. “confirming the choice.” 1881. harrisburg (pa) daily patriot, february 24. congressional quarterly’s guide to u.s. elections, 4th ed. 2001. washington, d.c.: cq press. editorial. 1881. washington post, february 24. evans, frank b. 1960. “wharton barker and the republican national convention of 1880.” pennsylvania history 27 (january): 28–43. garrison, wendell p. 1891. “the reform of the senate.” atlantic monthly 68 (august): 227–232. haynes, george h. 1906. the election of senators. new york: henry holt. david r. white 13 mitchell, john i. 1882. “political bosses.” north american review 135 (october): 363– 373. “mitchell the man.” 1881. harrisburg (pa) daily patriot, february 23. “mr. cameron’s new colleague.” 1881. new york times, february 25. national cyclopaedia of american biography. 1954. vol. 39. new york: james t. white and company. u.s. congress. senate. 1883. list of pensioners on the rolls january 1, 1883. 47th cong., 2d sess., s. ex. doc. 84–5. washington, d.c.: government printing office. u.s. congress. senate. 1886. veto messages of the presidents of the united states, with the action of congress thereon. 49th cong., 2d sess., misc. doc. 53. washington, d.c.: government printing office. u.s. congress. senate. 1893. precedents relating to the privileges of the senate of the united states of america, george p. furber, compiler. 52d cong., 2d sess., misc. doc. 52-68. washington, d.c.: government printing office. u.s. congress. senate. 2001. “the great senate deadlock: 1881.” http://www.senate. gov/learning/brief 23.html. march 18. u.s. congress. senate. committee on civil service and retrenchment. 1882. civil service of the united states. 47th cong., 1st sess., s. rep. 576. washington, d.c.: government printing office. http://www.senate. gov/learning/brief 23.html http://www.senate. gov/learning/brief 23.html 35 the rise and fall of pennsylvania’s voter identification law max guirguis shepherd university enacted in the wake of election 2000, the help america vote act of 2002 (hava) mandated nationwide standards in the conduct of federal elections. several states went beyond the statutory requirements of hava and passed legislation requiring voters to show photo ids at the polls. pennsylvania passed such a law in 2012, triggering a protracted legal battle in state courts that continued well after that year’s presidential election. although the commonwealth lost this fight because of noncompliance with the statutory guarantee of liberal access to voter id cards, the law may yet be upheld should the appeal process be taken further. the nationwide push for strict voter identification the debacle of the 2000 presidential election prompted a national debate over electoral reform. one of the notable policy consequences of that debate was the enactment of the help america vote act of 2002 (hava), which required the states to revamp their voter registration systems by implementing a “single, uniform, official, centralized, interactive computerized statewide voter registration list defined, maintained, and administered at the state level” (help america vote act 2002, 42 usc §15483 (a)(1)(a)). presumably to curb the potential for voter fraud and maintain a fair electoral system, another key provision of the act required the states to verify the identity of individuals who registered by mail and had not previously voted in a federal election (help america vote act 2002, 42 usc §15483 (b)(2)(a)(i)(i)-(ii)). to enhance electoral integrity beyond the minimum requirements of hava, some states began considering legislation to require all voters to show proof of their identity at the polls (hale and ramona 2010). 36 the rise and fall of pennsylvania’s voter identification law indiana was a pioneer state in the introduction of strict photo identification laws. approved in april 2005, public law 109-2005 required indiana residents who cast their ballots in person to provide a current and valid photo identification (senate enrolled act no. 483 2005, ic §3-118-25.1). exempt from the photo id requirement were people confined to nursing homes (senate enrolled act no. 483 2005, ic §3-11-8-25.1(e)) and registered voters who qualified for absentee voting under state law (senate enrolled act no. 483 2005, ic §3-11-10-1.2). voters who did not have an officially sanctioned form of id, or who for religious reasons did not wish to have their picture taken, were allowed to cast provisional ballots and report to their county election office within ten days of the election to execute an affidavit affirming the applicable exemption in order for their ballots to count (senate enrolled act no. 483 2005, ic §3-11.7-5-2.5). additionally, any voter who could not afford to pay for an official state-issued photo id would be issued one at no charge (senate enrolled act no. 483 2005, ic §9-24-16-10). these facilitative provisions and exceptions, however, did not insulate the law from the legal challenges that soon followed. a coalition of civil rights organizations, along with the indiana democratic party, challenged the voter id law. they contended that because of the paucity of voter fraud cases, the law unjustifiably and arbitrarily burdened the voting rights of many properly registered voters, especially indigent, elderly, and minority voters, in violation of the equal protection clause of the fourteenth amendment. the u.s. district court for the southern district of indiana upheld the act, noting that the plaintiffs, who had the burden of proof, failed to introduce “evidence of a single, individual indiana resident who will be unable to vote” or who is “unduly burdened” by the requirements of the act (indiana democratic party v. rokita 2006: 783). a divided panel of the u.s. court of appeals for the seventh circuit affirmed, with a strong dissent by judge evans contending that the indiana law was “a not-too-thinly-veiled attempt to discourage election-day turnout by certain folks believed to skew democratic” (indiana democratic party v. rokita 2006: 954). this interpretation of the law’s intent was especially valid, he added, given that “no one—in the history of indiana—had ever been charged with violating” the state’s election law (indiana democratic party v. rokita 2006: 955). on appeal, the u.s. supreme court affirmed the lower courts’ rulings in the test case of crawford v. marion county election board (2008), which garnered the attention of many state legislatures. upholding the law, a plurality of the court acknowledged the legitimacy of the state’s interest not only in “deterring and detecting voter fraud” but also in “safeguarding voter confidence” and “participating in a nationwide effort to improve and modernize election procedures that have been criticized as antiquated and 37 max guirguis max guirguis inefficient” (crawford v. marion county election board 2008: 191). as to the argument that the law was intended to advantage republicans at the expense of democrats, the court found that the law was “nondiscriminatory” and “supported by valid neutral justifications,” which “should not be disregarded simply because partisan interests may have provided one motivation for the votes of individual legislators” (crawford v. marion county election board 2008: 204). at the time it was passed, indiana’s law was considered to be the strictest voter id measure in the country. in upholding it, the supreme court rejected the contention that voter id laws are subtle discriminatory devices akin to literacy tests, whose real purpose was to disfranchise rather than maintain an informed electorate. the crawford ruling also established that voter photo id laws are constitutionally sound so long as they are neutral on their face and in their application, even if they are deemed inconvenient by some voters or have the incidental effect of reducing voter turnout. moreover, a state need not prove that voter fraud has already occurred to justify the burden that the photo id requirement may place on potential voters (schaffer and wang 2009). the preservation of electoral integrity per se is a sufficient governmental interest to sustain the statute. though divided in its reasoning, the court was united on the principle that voter id laws are a valid exercise of a state’s police power to prevent fraud and govern elections. in his dissenting opinion, justice souter acknowledged “the legitimacy of interests on both sides” of the case, but he chided the plurality for not applying a balancing test to determine whether the state’s interest in structuring elections outweighed the burden the law imposed on voters’ rights (crawford v. marion county election board 2008: 210). similarly, justice breyer “share[d] the general view of the lead opinion insofar as it holds that the constitution does not automatically prohibit indiana from enacting a photo id requirement,” but he was disappointed by the plurality’s failure to apply a balancing test to the interests at issue (crawford v. marion county election board 2008: 238). the reasoning and language of these dissents show that the court was split not so much over a state’s authority to require a photo id to vote, as over the grounds on which it would uphold that requirement. encouraged by crawford, other states began crafting their own photo identification programs. this trend gained significant momentum in the wake of the republican tidal wave in the election of 2010 that gave the gop control of more state legislatures. the new laws were generally patterned on indiana’s. at the beginning of 2011, indiana and georgia were the only states requiring a government-issued photo id card to vote; but within a year or so, the number had increased to sixteen (hirschkorn 2012). following the example of more than a dozen states, pennsylvania passed its own voter 38 the rise and fall of pennsylvania’s voter identification law identification law in march 2012, using indiana’s framework as its model (ariosto 2012). this move precipitated a protracted legal battle that began in the run-up to that year’s presidential election. the enactment of pennsylvania’s voter identification law the pennsylvania voter identification protection act1 had its origin in house bill 934, which was introduced on march 5, 2011, by state representative daryl metcalfe (r-butler), chairman of the house state government committee. democrats vehemently opposed the bill, but it had enough republican votes to pass. tom corbett, the state’s republican governor, also supported the bill. passing the house on june 23, 2011, the bill advanced to the senate, where it cleared the appropriations committee on march 5, 2012, and the full chamber two days later by a vote of 26–23. the bill then returned to the house for a final vote on the senate’s amendments. on march 14, 2012, after three straight days of often impassioned debate, the measure passed the house in a nearly party-line vote of 104–88, with only three republican lawmakers joining the entire democratic caucus in opposition (finarelli 2012). within hours of the bill’s passage, governor corbett signed it into law, making pennsylvania the sixteenth state in the nation to enact a photo identification requirement for voting (miller and mayes 2012). pennsylvania toughened its voting rules considerably with this legislation, which did away with non-photo ids and extended the proof of identity requirement to all voters in every election. prior state law required identification only from people voting for the first time in a precinct and it allowed non-photo identification, such as utility bills and state or local government-issued checks (associated press 2012). governor corbett defended the tougher rules as necessary to ensure fair and accurate elections. as he signed the bill, the governor touted it as a means of protecting the “sacred principle . . . one person, one vote” (miller and mayes 2012). he further assured the citizenry that the bill “does not interfere with anyone’s legal right to vote,” and he pledged that the state would provide a free photo id for voting to anyone who lacked a valid id (gorsegner 2012). the pennsylvania voter id law was similar to the indiana law upheld in crawford. acceptable forms of identification included any photo id issued by the federal government, the commonwealth of pennsylvania, a municipality of the commonwealth, an accredited pennsylvania public or private institution of higher learning, or a pennsylvania care facility (pennsylvania election code 2012, 25 p.s. §2602(z.5)(2)). all ids must have an expiration date that is current. as noted above, a free non-driver photo id would be provided to voters who did not possess any of the 39 max guirguis max guirguis required ids. individuals with a religious objection to being photographed would be allowed to use a state-issued non-photo id (pennsylvania election code 2012, 25 p.s. §2602(z.5)(1)). a few minor differences set the two laws apart. for instance, pennsylvania’s law allowed voters who did not present an id card at the polls to verify their identity in person within six rather than ten days of voting (pennsylvania election code 2012, 25 p.s. §3050(a.4) (5)(ii)(d)-(e)). also at variance with the indiana law, absentee ballot voters in pennsylvania were not exempted from identification. they must provide either their driver’s license number or the last four digits of their social security number if they did not have a driver’s license (pennsylvania election code 2012, 25 p.s. §2602(z.5)(3)(ii)).2 it was somewhat surprising that the law did not divide the electorate as deeply as it had divided the state legislature, considering that it had been enacted in a presidential election year when partisan fervor tends to be especially intense. according to a quinnipiac university poll conducted shortly after the law’s passage, pennsylvania voters backed the idea of requiring an id to vote by a 2:1 margin (quinnipiac university poll 2012). conducted in june 2012, the poll found that pennsylvania voters approved of the photo id requirement, 66% to 32%. republicans approved by 91% to 7% and independents approved by 64% to 35%, but democrats were opposed by 53% to 46%. all age and income groups strongly supported the law. it is unclear, however, whether public support was strong because an estimated 99% of the state’s eligible voters already had acceptable photo ids (barcousky 2012), or because they shared their governor’s view that the law “sets a simple and clear standard to protect the integrity of our elections” (hirschkorn 2012). some of the democrats against the law likened it to “old-fashioned jim crow tactics,” and accused republicans of trying to “steal the white house” by manufacturing barriers that limit access to the ballot box, especially in poor and minority precincts (levy 2012). high-profile political action groups, such as the aarp, the naacp, the homeless advocacy project, and the league of women voters were highly critical of the law. the backlash was hardly surprising given that a coalition of 45 organizations called protect our vote had vociferously opposed house bill 934 when it came to a vote (thompson 2012a). the american civil liberties union announced it was preparing a challenge to the law, which was to take effect in the november general election rather than in the april state primary (jerry 2012).3 some citizen groups organized protests, while others conducted voter education workshops, but all advised voters to take advantage of the free photo identification cards offered by the pennsylvania department of transportation (penndot), pending the legal challenge. 40 the rise and fall of pennsylvania’s voter identification law objections to pennsylvania’s voter identification law opponents presented six arguments against the law, one specific to pennsylvania and the others applicable to all voter identification laws. to start with the state-specific argument, opponents said the legislation was too costly to implement. cost estimates for implementing the voter id law ranged from $4 million to $11 million (jerry 2012). the harrisburgbased nonpartisan pennsylvania budget and policy center (pbpc) issued a statement in may 2011 estimating “the first-year costs for a voter identification program of approximately $11 million” (ward 2011). it was feared that considerable expenditures would have to be devoted to the public awareness campaign, the poll workers’ training, and the free identification cards at a time when the commonwealth was facing a projected budget deficit of $300 million that necessitated painful cuts in essential services (boehm 2012).4 the limited availability of funds, critics argued, should have barred the introduction of yet another government program that would further strain the state budget by increasing election spending. although the vast majority of pennsylvanians already had photo ids, so the second argument went, the law could still prevent large numbers of eligible voters from participating in the democratic process. senior citizens, first-time and students voters, and low-income and minority groups were among the populations deemed most vulnerable to disfranchisement under the law. for example, the aarp reported that as many as 570,000 of its 2.7 million pennsylvania members did not have proper voter identification (brown 2012). moreover, a study by the brennan center for justice at new york university school of law found that one in four blacks and one in six hispanics lacked a recognized photo id, compared with one in ten of the general population (pilkington 2012). young people and student voters also drew concern because while most university-issued ids have photos, they typically lack an expiration date, not to mention that out-of-state student ids are unacceptable for voting. of 114 colleges and universities surveyed by the naacp, 95 issued student ids without expiration dates (brown 2012). the requirement that the names on the proof of residency and the id match also had the potential of disfranchising the many women who did not change the name or update the address on their id documents after they got married. in addition, thousands of senior citizens were at risk of losing their right to vote because they had no current driver’s license, passport, or military id. the third objection lodged by opponents was that while the nondriver photo id itself may be free, the documents needed to apply for it are not (thompson, 2012b).5 these documents include birth certificate, marriage license, passport, or citizenship/naturalization certificate, none of which is free of charge. nor did the law arrange for the commute to and 41 max guirguis max guirguis from penndot centers or the other state offices that issue the underlying documents. these trips could be onerous on physically handicapped and wheelchair-bound voters and costly to those living on a fixed income. in addition, the state would not pay to replace people’s id cards that might be stolen or lost through no fault of their own. this is not a farfetched or trivial concern in a country where 1,000 wallets and purses are stolen every two minutes (ohio department of aging 2011). in fact, as will be discussed below, the lead plaintiff in the court challenge to the law, viviette applewhite, had lost her social security card when she was robbed of her purse. another plaintiff, wilola shinholster lee, had lost her birth certificate in a house fire, and georgia (her birth state) was unable to locate her birth record to issue a new birth certificate (bronner 2012). doubts were also raised about the law’s rationale and potential efficacy. opponents contended that because voter fraud was hardly a problem in pennsylvania and adequate safeguards were already in place, then the law would only serve to disfranchise citizens without furthering its stated purpose (wojcik 2012). under prior election law, anyone voting for the first time in a district had to appear in person at the polls on election day and provide proof of residency and identity. also, every voter was required to sign the poll list before receiving a ballot, and the sign-in (or mail-in) signature had to be checked against the one in voter registration records. opponents of the new law maintained that these requirements were effective in preventing and deterring voter fraud for many years as evidenced by the dearth of such prosecutions, which explains why proponents of voter id laws typically point to the system’s vulnerability to fraud and abuse without proving their existence (ansolabehere and persily 2008). hence, critics insisted that the law presented a “solution in search of a problem” (gregg 2012). the fifth argument is essentially an extension of the fourth. because opponents saw no practical purpose in requiring a voter id card, they attacked the law as merely a republican political scheme designed to reduce democratic turnout and thereby give the gop an electoral advantage. furthermore, they charged that republican legislators had acted in bad faith, knowing that most of the potentially disfranchised voters belonged to the democratic party (douglas 2011). partisan wrangling aside, some studies conducted by neutral third parties, such as the brennan center for justice, found that voter id laws disproportionately disadvantage racial minorities, among other groups that tend to vote democratic. while other studies yielded mixed results about the effect of such laws on voter turnout (see de alth 2009), the fact remained that hundreds of thousands of voters across pennsylvania lacked acceptable forms of identification and most of them were traditionally democratic supporters. finally, voter id laws in general have been criticized as a step backward in voting rights because they may hamper the democratic process and 42 the rise and fall of pennsylvania’s voter identification law impair the exercise of a fundamental right. as stated earlier, for lack of proper identification the new rules could result in denying eligible voters the opportunity to vote, or allowing them to cast only provisional ballots until their eligibility is established (baker 2012). according to data released in july 2012 by the pennsylvania department of state, as many as 758,939 voters, or 9.2% of the state’s registered voters, could be disqualified from voting for not having a pennsylvania driver’s license, the most common form of photo id in the state (madison 2012). it is true that ids are an essential part of everyday life and are required for many activities, such as flying, driving, drinking, and obtaining gun permits. what makes voting different, an opponent of voter id laws would argue, is that voting is a sacrosanct right of citizenship in a class by itself, as well as an important civic duty that should be encouraged rather than stifled (sullivan 2012). it is already difficult enough for many people to vote. the voter id law could further compound the difficulties facing many voters and prevent or dissuade them from exercising their voting rights. pennsylvania’s voter identification law litigated opponents of the voter id law tried to achieve in state courts what they could not in state legislative chambers. on may 1, 2012, the aclu, along with several other civil rights groups,6 filed suit to enjoin the corbett administration from enforcing the law. the plaintiffs pointed to three alleged flaws that put the law at odds with the state constitution. they argued first that the law “unduly burdens the fundamental right to vote in violation of article i, section 5 of the pennsylvania constitution”; second that it “imposes burdens on the right to vote that do not bear upon all voters equally under similar circumstances in violation of the equal protection guarantees of article i, sections 1 and 26 of the pennsylvania constitution”; and third that it “imposes an additional qualification on the right to vote in violation of article vii, section 1 of the pennsylvania constitution” (applewhite v. commonwealth 2012a: 4–5). the commonwealth court upholds the voter identification law the action was brought on behalf of ten pennsylvanians struggling to obtain ids, among them a 93-year-old philadelphia resident, viviette applewhite, who had voted regularly since 1960 and was now in danger of being disfranchised by the law. with her eventful past and complicated circumstances, applewhite appeared to be an ideal lead plaintiff for the case. she was a twice-married elderly black woman who had been adopted as a child and who had gone through several name changes (bronner 2012). in 43 max guirguis max guirguis addition, she had lost her social security card when her purse was stolen in a supermarket four years before, and she could not procure a certified copy of her birth certificate because of the “bureaucratic confusion surrounding her identity,” as one commentator tersely put it (ungar 2012). shortly after the lawsuit was filed, penndot made an exception for viviette applewhite and issued her an id, even though she lacked the documentation required by law and never had a driver’s license in her life. still, this flexibility on the part of the state did not render the case moot because of the other individual and organizational plaintiffs named in the suit.7 on august 15, 2012, commonwealth judge robert simpson issued his opinion upholding the law as a “reasonable, nondiscriminatory, nonsevere burden” that is justified and outweighed by “a relevant and legitimate state interest” (applewhite v. commonwealth 2012a: 88). after setting out the background of the case, summarizing the key provisions of the statute (act 18) under consideration, and delineating the standard that should apply for granting or denying the preliminary injunction motion, judge simpson went on to reject the facial challenge because the plaintiffs failed to meet the heavy burden of showing that every application of the statute would be unconstitutional, or “no set of circumstances exist under which the statute would be valid” (applewhite v. commonwealth 2012a: 22). nor did the judge find merit in the contention that the statute would inevitably disadvantage certain voters, noting that it “applies equally to all qualified electors . . . [and] does not expressly disenfranchise or burden any qualified elector or group of electors” (applewhite v. commonwealth 2012a: 30). he attached no constitutional significance to house majority leader mike turzai’s brazen boast in a videotaped republican state committee meeting that the enactment of the voter id law would “allow governor romney to win the state of pennsylvania” (cernetich 2012). dismissing the “partisan motivation” argument, judge simpson asserted that while turzai’s “tendentious statements” were “disturbing,” they “did not invalidate the interests supporting act 18, for factual and legal reasons” (applewhite v. commonwealth 2012a: 86). with the failure of the facial challenge, it remained for the plaintiffs to furnish the circumstances under which the statute was applied in an unconstitutional manner, but this would not be possible until after the enforcement date of november 6. stated differently, because the statute was found facially valid, it could only be subject to an as-applied challenge, which judge simpson concluded was unripe because the statute was not in operation at the time. after making this determination, he proceeded to explain at length why the statute was a constitutionally permissible means of regulating elections. the bulk of the 70-page opinion analyzed and drew analogies from several recent precedents, especially the 2008 crawford 44 the rise and fall of pennsylvania’s voter identification law decision in which the “supreme court upheld a nearly identical indiana voter id law despite the absence of any evidence of in-person voter fraud occurring in that state” (applewhite v. commonwealth 2012a: 86). the pennsylvania supreme court remands the case in denying the motion for a preliminary injunction, the trial court kept the voter id law in effect and cleared the way for the case to proceed further. the possibility of obtaining an injunction from a higher court was not out of reach, given that election day was still about 11 weeks away. on august 23, 2012, the supreme court of pennsylvania granted the request for expedited review and scheduled the oral arguments for september 13. as the trial date was nearing, some voting rights advocates suggested it did not bode well for the pennsylvania law when a federal court blocked a texas voter id law. proponents of the law, however, discounted such speculation because pennsylvania legislators had avoided the constitutional pitfall that doomed the texas law by providing for free photo ids.8 they were even optimistic since the decision of the lower court could stand if the state supreme court split along predictable ideological lines.9 neither side was correct in its conjectures. on september 18, after a week of testimony and oral arguments, the highest state court issued a surprise 4–2 ruling, ordering the case sent back to the commonwealth court for reconsideration. rather than determine the act’s constitutionality, the supreme court opted to “return the matter to the commonwealth court to make a present assessment of the actual availability of the alternate identification cards on a developed record in light of the experience since the time the cards became available” (applewhite v. commonwealth 2012b: 5). by not granting a permanent injunction, the court tacitly recognized that the act could conceivably be constitutionally applied if the state implemented adequate measures to ensure that voting rights would not be curtailed. still, the decision gave petitioners some hope by allowing their facial constitutional challenge to proceed. correcting the lower court, the supreme court upheld the validity of making a facial challenge because of the short-term implications of the act. the court reasoned that “if a statute violates constitutional norms in the short term, a facial challenge may be sustainable even though the statute might validly be enforced at some time in the future” (applewhite v. commonwealth 2012b: 5). although the state supreme court did not render a conclusive judgment, its ruling was perceived as a victory for the law’s opponents insofar as it restricted the lower court’s range of review, thereby pressuring it to stay the law from taking effect. in remanding the case, the supreme court specifically instructed the lower court to “consider whether the procedures being used for deployment of the cards comport with the requirement of 45 max guirguis max guirguis liberal access which the general assembly attached to the issuance of penndot identification cards” (applewhite v. commonwealth 2012b: 5). moreover, unless the commonwealth court is “convinced in its predictive judgment that there will be no voter disenfranchisement . . . for purposes of the upcoming election,” it is “obliged to enter a preliminary injunction” (applewhite v. commonwealth 2012b: 5). some legal analysts averred that these instructions would induce the lower court to reverse its prior decision.10 the two dissenters, however, were frustrated by the court’s reserved decision. they believed that the court should have granted outright an injunction to protect thousands of qualified voters from potential disenfranchisement. justice mccaffery explained that while he had “no argument with the requirement that all pennsylvania voters, at some reasonable point in the future, will have to present photo identification before they may cast their ballots,” he saw no reason other than politics for “implementing act 18 prior to the november 2012 election” (applewhite v. commonwealth 2012b: 9). accordingly, he opined that the court should have remanded the case “with the specific directive to the commonwealth court to immediately grant the requested preliminary injunction” (applewhite v. commonwealth 2012b: 9). the other dissenter, justice todd, castigated the court for “abdicat[ing] its duty to emphatically decide a legal controversy vitally important to the citizens of this commonwealth” in the face of the “impending near-certain loss of voting rights” (applewhite v. commonwealth 2012b: 6). the state supreme court required the lower court to file its opinion on or before october 2, 2012, that is, within two weeks. as already noted above, the outcome this time around was not necessarily a foregone conclusion. although judge simpson had once held that the law was “neutral and nondiscriminatory” (applewhite v. commonwealth 2012a: 11), he now had to examine the law afresh under a different and higher standard of review. in the first trial, he saddled the plaintiffs with the burden of proving the risk of disenfranchisement, but on appeal, the supreme court directed him to probe the state’s assertion that no voters would be disenfranchised, thus reversing the onus of proof (see applewhite v. commonwealth 2012b: 5). to comply with this directive, judge simpson would have to shift the focus of analysis from the legitimacy of the law’s purpose to the potential impact of its implementation on the imminent election. so while the dissent took the court to task for not going far enough in its findings, the remand order made it exceedingly difficult for the lower court to let the law go into effect. voter identification requirements suspended for the presidential election on october 2, the commonwealth court handed down its muchanticipated decision, precluding the enforcement of the key components of 46 the rise and fall of pennsylvania’s voter identification law the act on the grounds that the state was not yet ready to implement it in full. more precisely, it entered a preliminary injunction enjoining the enforcement of only “those parts of act 18 which directly result in disenfranchisement,” principally the photo id provision (applewhite v. commonwealth 2012c: 9). following the strict guidelines set forth by the state supreme court, judge simpson said he was “not still convinced . . . that there will be no voter disenfranchisement arising out of the commonwealth’s implementation of a voter identification requirement for purposes of the upcoming election” (applewhite v. commonwealth 2012c: 6). despite the state’s assurances, he could not but “question whether sufficient time now remains to attain the goal of liberal access” (applewhite v. commonwealth 2012c: 4), given the relatively small number of ids that had so far been issued.11 with barely five weeks remaining until election day, he had to agree with the petitioners that “the gap between the photo ids issued and the estimated need will not be closed” (applewhite v. commonwealth 2012c: 6). it did not come as a surprise that the corbett administration decided not to appeal the ruling, given its modest practical impact in the broader scheme of things. the law had already been upheld in august, in the first court challenge, and the october ruling did not change that. the commonwealth was to continue with its efforts to put more photo ids in the hands of more citizens to meet the liberal access standard. the preliminary injunction was limited in duration and scope. though voters would not have to show a photo id to vote, the terms of the injunction allowed the “soft-run” to go forward to familiarize voters with the new procedures and iron out unforeseen snags in preparation for full future implementation (applewhite v. commonwealth 2012c: 14).12 in rejecting “petitioners’ request to enjoin all outreach and education efforts” (applewhite v. commonwealth 2012c: 8) and declining to “restrain election officials from asking for photo id at the polls” (applewhite v. commonwealth 2012c: 9), judge simpson made it clear that the sole issue the injunction was narrowly drawn to address was the readiness of the state rather than the constitutionality of the act. as such, the seemingly adverse ruling confirmed that it was only a matter of time before the act would go into full effect. this is why governor corbett’s reaction was quite upbeat. in a press conference, the governor said he saw the ruling as a win for the law in the long term because the court had ultimately approved the voter id requirement, despite the deferred implementation (gibson 2012). echoing the governor’s message, ron ruman, a spokesman for the pennsylvania department of state, said the agency “is pleased the judgment in effect has upheld the voter id law for future elections” (bumsted and smeltz 2012). contrary to initial apprehensions, election day in pennsylvania was largely uneventful. complications were limited to reports of confused voters and uninformed poll workers in several districts.13 as in the april primary, 47 max guirguis max guirguis voters who did not have or want to produce a photo id were allowed to vote, but this time they were also given information leaflets to educate them about the procedures that ought to be followed in the future. the long lines and heavy turnout reflected the intensity of the campaign. the two candidates battled over pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes, but the outcome favored president obama by a margin of 52–47. despite their electoral victory, the democrats resumed the legal challenge to the voter id law that was still on the docket in the hope of defeating it once and for all.14 after consulting with the lawyers on both sides, judge simpson announced in late january that the trial would be held on july 15, 2013. since the issue remained unresolved, commonwealth and aclu lawyers agreed to postpone the enforcement of the law again until the lawsuit had been heard in court. approving the agreement, judge simpson issued an order on february 19, 2013, extending the partial preliminary injunction through the municipal and judicial primaries scheduled for may 21. as in the two prior elections, poll workers would be allowed to ask for a photo id but voters would not be required to show it in order to cast a ballot. in a surprise development in june, while final arrangements for the july hearing were underway, judge simpson quietly bowed out of the spotlight and turned the case over to commonwealth judge bernard mcginley without formally stating a reason. neither side made much of his withdrawal, partly because the trial date remained the same, and partly because an appeal to the state supreme court by the losing party seemed almost inevitable. it was now up to the new judge to block the law for november’s general elections while the case was still under review. the voter identification law back in commonwealth court the commonwealth court called the case for trial in mid-july as scheduled, when it heard oral arguments and testimony from expert witnesses, state officials, and longtime voters adversely affected by the voter id law. the testimony was as intense as the public interest in the trial. one reporter aptly described it as a “statistical duel” (jackson 2013). relying on a report by an expert statistician, bernard siskin, petitioners contended that the law was both unjustified and unduly restrictive, and unless enjoined it would bar many people from the polls, especially poor, elderly, and minority voters.15 they further argued that the law was a “political ploy” contrived in an election year to help the romney candidacy, as candidly admitted by rep. turzai in his address to the republican state committee (esack 2013b). moreover, petitioners attacked the law as not only illconsidered but also ill-executed because the state had failed to provide the statutorily mandated liberal access to the free penndot and dos voter id cards, leaving hundreds of thousands of registered voters without the 48 the rise and fall of pennsylvania’s voter identification law needed identification.16 the petitioners finally asserted that a permanent injunction was warranted because there was no reason to assume the state could do any better and close this gap (pearson and musselman 2013). as one reporter succinctly summed up, the challengers argued that the law was “unconstitutional as written and too hard for too many to comply with” (baer 2013). noting that the law had already passed muster in 2012, the state countered that it was a necessary anti-fraud measure to ensure a fair voting process and that the free voter id cards were readily available. the state hired its own expert statistician, william wecker, who questioned the methodology in siskin’s report and cast doubt on its findings. in particular, wecker attacked the theory that the relatively small number of voting-only ids issued by penndot meant that numerous voters did not have valid ids. there was, of course, no way to ascertain how many voters already had or were able to obtain other acceptable forms of identification, nor was it possible to determine how many voters had died, moved out of state, or lost their right to vote due to a criminal conviction (jackson 2013). as a gesture of goodwill, the state offered to delay the enforcement of the law until 2015 and dedicate more time and resources to its public outreach and voter education campaign (baer 2013). in so proceeding, it appears that the state’s legal team sought to steer the court away from even inquiring into the constitutionality of the statute and direct its attention to compliance with the statutory requirements instead.17 the trial lasted more than two weeks. a ruling on the constitutionality of the law was not expected until late fall or early 2014. meanwhile, the petitioners requested that the enforcement ban be extended to the statewide municipal and judicial elections to be held on november 5.18 the state was receptive to this request, provided that the injunction was renewed only one election at a time until a final decree was made in the case. a separate request that the state did not support was to block officials from questioning voters for identification (without requiring it) and distributing printed information about the law as part of the voter education and outreach program. a ruling on this interim matter was expected before the end of august. to be sure, on august 16, the new presiding judge suspended the law for the forthcoming election. he also modified the soft rollout but stopped short of suspending it altogether, allowing poll workers to ask for the unrequired identification yet barring them from advising voters that proper identification would be required in future elections. using particularly strong language in his memorandum opinion, judge mcginley described this voter notification practice as “erroneous at best, deceptive at worst” (applewhite v. commonwealth 2013: 7–8), thus raising doubts about the law’s fate. it was the third time a judge had halted the implementation of the law ahead of an election, the other two times being the 2012 general election 49 max guirguis max guirguis and the 2013 primaries. the petitioners hailed the court order as a victory for pennsylvania voters and pledged to fight the law until it is permanently enjoined. the defeat of the voter identification law on january 17, 2014, after more than a year and a half of litigation, the commonwealth court struck down section 3 of act 18, the core provision that applies to in-person voting requirements. in granting a permanent injunction, judge mcginley found that “not much has changed” since the state supreme court had issued its remand order in september 2012 so as to warrant a different disposition (applewhite v. commonwealth 2014: 12). despite some measures taken by the state, including the introduction of the dos id in the summer of 2012 as an alternative equivalent to the penndot voting id, the state still fell short of “comport[ing] with the liberal access compelled by the statute” (applewhite v. commonwealth 2014: 6). the court quite reasonably attached significant weight to the testimony of state officials. citing the testimony of jonathan marks, commissioner of the bureau of commissions, elections, and legislation, judge mcginley noted that the number of voters who lacked any of the specified forms of photo id was still “ranging from hundreds of thousands to over a half million” (applewhite v. commonwealth 2014: 12). further damaging testimony against the state’s readiness came from rebecca oyler, director of policy at pennsylvania’s department of state, who also estimated that the “enactment of the voter id law, without an adequate safety net, would preclude 1% of qualified electors from exercising the franchise” (applewhite v. commonwealth 2014: 12). the solid evidence presented at trial was sufficient to support the finding that the law imposed an unreasonable burden on the right to vote. though unequivocal in his conclusion that the law should be permanently enjoined, judge mcginley had no qualms about the voter id requirement itself. he was troubled, however, by the absence of a “statutory mechanism for ensuring liberal access” to the free photo ids (applewhite v. commonwealth 2014: 18). moreover, he dismissed the equal protection claim, finding that the “voter id law is facially neutral” (applewhite v. commonwealth 2014: 47), and faulting the petitioners for “not submit[ting] any evidence that all of the individuals lacking compliant id belong to specially protected classes” (applewhite v. commonwealth 2014: 48). like judge simpson, he also considered rep. turzai’s “unfortunate comments” of no importance in determining whether the equal protection clause was violated, noting that “no case in [the supreme] court has held that a legislative act may violate equal protection solely because of the motivations of the men who voted for it” (applewhite v. commonwealth 2014: n.33).19 50 the rise and fall of pennsylvania’s voter identification law under this reasoning, it is evident that judge mcginley invalidated sectin 3 not because the statute was defective in its premise, but because it was flawed in its implementation. since the obstacle is execution rather than principle, the decision left the door open for salvaging the statute, if sufficient effort and resources are invested to save it. admittedly, the opinion stated that the statute “as written suggests a legislative disconnect from reality” (applewhite v. commonwealth 2014: 41), but this comment was distinctly confined to the expiration date requirement, which seemed irrational because it implicitly excluded military-retiree ids and student ids for not having an expiration date while explicitly recognizing stateemployee ids despite lacking an expiration date. this point, while well taken, would become moot if the state ameliorated its implementation strategies to comply with the liberal access requirement. the corbett administration reacted guardedly. attorney general kathleen kane said in a statement that she “respect[ed] judge mcginley’s very thoughtful decision,” without indicating whether an appeal would be pursued (frantz 2014). post-trial motions had to be filed within ten days, but given the immense task that remained to be done to achieve voter readiness, the state’s motions were unlikely to affect the substantive outcome of the case. on january 27, the state filed a motion seeking en banc review by the full commonwealth court, which was denied on march 11. the motion to reconsider was also denied, on april 28, letting the ruling stand. the unsuccessful post-trial motions were the last option available before an appeal could be filed in the state supreme court. on may 8, 2014, the governor’s office released a statement announcing that “[t]he commonwealth will not pursue an appeal to the pennsylvania supreme court to overturn the commonwealth court’s decision to enjoin act 18’s photo identification mandate” (office of the governor 2014). conceding that “changes must be made to address accessibility to photo identifications,” governor corbett said he would be working with the legislature in the current legislative term to identify and meet the challenges associated with what he called “a sensible and reasonable measure for the commonwealth” (office of the governor 2014). he also highlighted the necessity of “passing a balanced budget and addressing ongoing legislative priorities” (office of the governor 2014), thus signaling his reluctance to rush into what is likely to be another losing battle absent a major shift in the status quo. conclusion as the commonwealth contemplates a new approach, speculation abounds over the future of the voter id law. for now, at least, opponents have won a significant victory, despite the supreme court’s decision in 51 max guirguis max guirguis crawford. the commonwealth court deemed the crawford precedent of little if any direct relevance to the case at bar, or “inapposite to the facts and legal challenge here,” because there “the statute did not jeopardize the right to vote” (applewhite v. commonwealth 2014: n.25). the state’s contention that it was well prepared for the full implementation of the law was not credible in the face of the evidentiary record, which clearly demonstrated that the goal of liberal access had not been sufficiently met. though the state has made some progress toward this goal, it has unsurprisingly fallen short of its own targets. to illustrate, pennsylvania has 9,300 polling places, some of which are conveniently located inside senior citizen apartment buildings.20 by contrast, only 71 penndot licensing locations are spread unevenly across the state, and they do not operate enough hours to help the state meet its statutorily prescribed obligations. two years after the law’s enactment hundreds of thousands of people still lack compliant ids when penndot offices in 22 out of the state’s 67 counties are open only one or two days a week and nine counties still have no id-issuing centers (lindstrom 2013). voters could scarcely be blamed for this state of affairs. if the state has changed the law to require voters to present picture id at the polls, the onus is on the state to help voters overcome the barriers to obtaining one. state resources need to be used more effectively and new strategies need to be developed to accommodate voters, especially those with income and mobility limitations who do not have the wherewithal to travel to other counties or the stamina to wait in line or sit in a wheelchair for hours to get a voter id card (gregg 2013). the state can, for instance, set up mobile units in lower income districts and underserved areas, as proposed by the plaintiffs. alternatively, the state can arrange for transporting voters to government offices or at least to the nearest penndot location. it can add new dmv offices or extend the hours of operation of existing ones, as other states have done. as a supplemental measure, perhaps the limited range of state-approved forms of identification can be expanded. converting traditional voter registration cards into photo voter id cards is one option to consider. whatever the strategy, the state must find ways to reach out to voters needing photo ids, particularly in fringe populations and vulnerable communities, if the law is to be sustained upon appeal. notwithstanding the many challenges before the state, it should be noted again that the problem at hand is one of preparedness rather than substance. the two commonwealth judges who blocked the law’s enforcement have agreed in principle that requiring a voter id per se is not an unconstitutional deprivation of the right to vote so long as all eligible voters will be able to vote. the constitutional concern, as stated earlier, is not the voter id requirement itself, but the lack of supportive mechanisms that facilitate full electoral participation. this has been and continues to be the fundamental 52 the rise and fall of pennsylvania’s voter identification law impediment to the law’s full implementation. the state must ensure that voters have access to the ballot rather than expect them to contend with various institutional and bureaucratic obstacles in order to gain such access. as the political scientist e. e. schattschneider famously put it, “democracy was made for the people, not the people for democracy” (schattschneider 1960: 135). unless the required liberal access is demonstrably provided, there is no reason to believe that the pennsylvania supreme court will disturb the findings of the commonwealth court, should the state eventually decide to appeal. notes 1 codified at p.l. 195, no. 18 (pa. 2012). 2 this provision arguably creates a loophole considering that the proven cases of voter fraud in other states, such as florida, illinois, indiana, texas, and north carolina, mainly involved absentee ballots rather than polling place impersonation (see biesecker and yost 2013; liptak 2012; slater 2013). 3 poll workers were to perform only a test run or soft rollout in the primary election, whereby they would merely ask voters for state-approved identification without requiring it or barring them from voting should they lack such identification. 4 the independent fiscal office projected a deficit of $300 million by the end of fiscal year 2012. the actual deficit for 2012 turned out to be $162.8 million due to freezes in state spending (reuters 2012). 5 rep. eddie day pashinski (d-121, luzerne) expressed the same concern in a newsletter to his constituents. available at: http://www.pahouse.com/pr/121_voter_id_ nl_ 0712.pdf. 6 the other four organizational petitioners were the naacp, the pennsylvania state conference, the league of women voters of pennsylvania, and the homeless advocacy project. 7 although the court did not expressly address the issue of standing, the organizational plaintiffs were deemed to have associational standing because their members, as registered voters, had standing to challenge the law in their own right. this has been the recognized basis on which courts have granted standing to membership organizations in scores of voting rights cases across the country, including crawford (see crawford v. marion county election board 2008: note 7). 8 in the texas challenge, a three-judge district court panel denied the state’s request for a declaratory judgment, finding that the law “imposes strict, unforgiving burdens on the poor, and racial minorities in texas are disproportionately likely to live in poverty” (see texas v. holder 2012: 144). the unanimous court noted that to meet the law’s strict requirements, voters would have to spend a minimum of $22 to obtain the required documentation. 9 the supreme court of pennsylvania normally has seven members, but justice joan orie melvin was suspended pending a trial on campaign corruption charges, leaving the court evenly divided between its conservative and liberal wings (see langley 2012). 10 for instance, john burkoff, a law professor at the university of pittsburgh law school, observed that “this decision means that the voter id law is dead meat, at least for this election.” similarly, bruce ledewitz, a duquesne university law professor, considered the supreme court’s language to be “as strong a hint as an appellate court can give” (see bumsted and wereschagin 2012). 53 max guirguis max guirguis 11 according to evidence presented at the hearings, “between 9300 and 9500 penndot ids for voting have been issued. also, between 1300 and 1350 dos ids” (applewhite v. commonwealth 2012c: 5). launched in august 2012, department of state (dos) photo ids were also free of charge but available only to voters who had exhausted the options for obtaining other state-issued ids (see worden and parks 2012). 12 under the limited enforcement scheme, a voter without proper identification would still be allowed to cast a regular ballot, instead of being either rejected or obliged to cast a provisional ballot that would not count unless the voter provided a valid photo id within six days. 13 lehigh valley’s morning call, for instance, reported some delays and complaints by voters who were “subjected to repeated requests for id” (see morning call staff 2012). mother jones magazine also received multiple complaints from voters who were told they needed an id to vote in this election (see eichelberger and harkinson 2012). 14 the possibility of averting a trial and resolving the matter by settlement was unlikely, for the legal director of the aclu, a lead challenger in the case, had vowed, “until it’s declared unconstitutional we’re not going to give in” (mcnulty 2012). 15 according to the “petitioner’s disclosure of expert reports,” dated july 1, 2013, bernard siskin estimated that as many as 511,415 registered voters had neither a penndot nor a dos id. available at: http://moritzlaw.osu.edu/electionlaw/litigation/ documents/ petexpsistine.pdf. 16 in a pre-trial brief dated june 17, 2013, petitioners argued that the pennsylvania department of state itself estimated that “about 4%–5% of pennsylvanians (roughly 328,000 to 410,000)” had no penndot identification, and yet only “16,754 free ids for voting” had been issued as of june 7, 2013. petitioner’s pre-trial statement is available at: http://moritzlaw. osu.edu/electionlaw/litigation/documents/petiapplewhite pretrialbrief.pdf. 17 nils hagen-frederiksen, the press secretary for the governor’s office of general counsel, commented early in the trial, “voter id is constitutional . . . the trial is about the implementation” (see shawn 2013). by contrast, aclu attorney michael rubin thought “[t] his case is about a law that on its face, and as it is applied, can lead to one result, thousands of voters losing their right to vote” (see esack 2013a). 18 in a post-hearing brief dated august 5, 2013, petitioners contended that “nothing has changed since last fall, or is likely to change in the future, that would justify lifting the preliminary injunction before the end of this case.” petitioners’ post-hearing brief is available at: http://www.aclupa.org/download_file/view_inline/1156/624. 19 quoting palmer v. thompson, 403 us. 217, 221 (1971) (brackets in original). 20 the plaintiffs presented as evidence a video of mina kanter-pripstein, a 92-year-old resident of philadelphia, in which she said she could vote inside her apartment building but was unable to get to a licensing center to obtain an id (see lindstrom 2013). references ansolabehere, stephen, and nathaniel persily. 2008. “vote fraud in the eye of the beholder: the role of public opinion in the challenge to voter identification requirements.” harvard law review 121: 1738–44. applewhite v. commonwealth. 2012a. unpub. lexis 757 (pa. cmwlth. aug. 15). applewhite v. commonwealth. 2012b. lexis 2151 (pa. s.ct. sept. 18). applewhite v. commonwealth. 2012c. unpub. lexis 749 (pa. cmwlth. oct. 2). applewhite v. commonwealth. 2013. 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http://newpittsburghcourieronline.com/index.php/featured-news/metro/7709pa-naacp-leads-rally-against-voter-id-law (accessed july 7, 2014). bumsted, brad, and adam smeltz. 2012. “judge blocks parts of pennsylvania voter id law; corbett not sure about appeal.” pittsburgh tribune-review. october 3. http://triblive. com/news/2701942-74/voter-law-state-voters-pennsylvania-ruling-simpson-electionrepublican-vote (accessed july 7, 2014). bumsted, brad, and michael wereschagin. 2012. “state supreme court sends voter id case back to commonwealth court for review.” pittsburgh tribune-review. september 18. http://triblive.com/state/pennsylvania/2625666-74/court-law-state-votercommonwealth-mccaffery-photo-supreme-election-todd (accessed july 7, 2014). cernetich, kelly. 2012. “turzai: voter id law means romney can win pa.” june 25. http:// www.politicspa.com/turzai-voter-id-law-means-romney-can-win-pa/37153 (accessed july 7, 2014). crawford v. marion county election board. 2007. 472 f.3d 949 (7th circ.). crawford v. marion county election board. 2008. 553 u.s. 181. de alth, shelley. 2009. “id at the polls: assessing the impact of recent state voter id laws on voter turnout.” harvard law & policy review 3: 185–202. douglas, william. 2011. “congressional dems seek to curb tough state voter-screening laws.” november 3. http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/11/03/ 129225/congressionaldems-seek-to-curb.html (accessed july 7, 2014). eichelberger, erika, and josh harkinson. 2012. “voter id chaos in pennsylvania.” mother jones. november 6. http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2012/11/ pennsylvaniavoter-id-chose (accessed july 7, 2014). esack, steve. 2013a. “lawyer: gov. tom corbett was warned elderly could be hurt by voter id law.” morning call. july 15. http://articles.mcall.com/2013-07-15/news/mc55 max guirguis max guirguis pa-voter-id-trial-0715-20130715_1_voter-id-law-women-voters-rubin (accessed july 7, 2014). esack, steve. 2013b. “politics as usual,” morning call. july 20. 2013-07-20/news/mc-papolitics-as-usual-0721-20130720_1_kathleen-kane-state-gop-pennsylvania-lottery (accessed july 7, 2014). finarelli, linda. 2012. “governor signs voter id bill into law.” montgomery news. march 16. http://www.montgomerynews.com/articles/2012/03/16/ north_penn_life/news/ doc4f635af0c40a5197444605.txt (accessed july 7, 2014). frantz, jeff. 2014. “corbett administration mulling appeal options after voter id law overturned.” the patriot-news. january 17. http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/ index. ssf/2014/01/voter_id_pennsylvania_tom_corb_1.html (accessed july 7, 2014). gibson, keegan. 2012. “voter id takes over corbett romney presser.” october 2. http:// www.politicspa.com/voter-id-takes-over-corbett-romney-presser/42014 (accessed july 7, 2014). gorsegner, michael. 2012. “voter id bill approved and signed into law.” los angeles times. march 15. http://www.latimes.com/news/wpmt-governorcorbett-signs-pa-photo-voterid-bill-into-law-20120314,0,2273809.story (accessed july 7, 2014). gregg, cherri. 2012. “voter id law a ‘solution in search of a problem’? watchdogs find little evidence of fraud.” july 16. http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2012/ 07/16/voterid-law-a-solution-in-search-of-a-problem-watchdogs-find-little-evidence-of-fraud (accessed july 7, 2014). gregg, cherri. 2013. “trial to open on lawfulness of pennsylvania voter id law.” july 15. http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2013/07/15/trial-to-open-on-lawfulness-ofpennsylvania-voter-id-law (accessed july 7, 2014). hale, kathleen, and ramona mcneal. 2010. “election administration reform and state choice: voter identification requirements and hava.” the policy studies journal 38: 281–302. help america vote act. 2002. cornell university law school, legal information institute. http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/42/15483 (accessed july 7, 2014). hirschkorn, phil. 2012. “strict voter id law passes in battleground pennsylvania.” march 15. http://www.cbsnews.com/news/strict-voter-id-law-passes-in-battleground-pennsylvania (accessed july 7, 2014). indiana democratic party v. rokita. 2006. 458 f. supp. 2d 775 (s.d. ind.). jackson, peter. 2013. “statistical duel marks pa. voter id trial.” july 25. http://www.observerreporter.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?aid=/ 20130725/news05/130729568/-1/news10 (accessed july 7, 2014). jerry, tara. 2012. “corbett signs voter id.” march 14. http://www.politicspa.com/ corbettsigns-voter-id-bill/32748 (accessed july 7, 2014). langley, karen. 2012. “voter id case goes to pa. supreme court on thursday.” pittsburgh post-gazette. september 10. http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/ local/state/voter-idcase-goes-to-pa-supreme-court-on-thursday-652639 (accessed july 7, 2014). levy, marc. 2012. “judge halts pennsylvania’s tough new voter id law.” october 2. http:// www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2012/10/02/judge-halts-pennsylvania-tough-newvoter-law/2xvtfre2yypamddnaxcm1m/story.html (accessed july 7, 2014). lindstrom, natasha. 2013. “battle over voter id law heats up in court.” intelligencer journal. july 16. http://www.phillyburbs.com/news/local/the_intelligencer_news/ battleover-voter-id-law-heats-up-in-court/article_a1f2916b-d601-5272-9729-7f075c9a44c0. html (accessed july 7, 2014). liptak, adam. 2012. “error and fraud at issue as absentee voting rises.” new york times. october 6. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/07/us/politics/as-more-vote-by-mailfaulty-ballots-could-impact-elections.html (accessed july 7, 2014). 56 the rise and fall of pennsylvania’s voter identification law madison, lucy. 2012 “stringent voter id law in pa. could prevent 750,000 from voting.” july 5. http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57467195-503544/ stringent-voterid-law-in-pa-could-prevent-750000-from-voting (accessed july 7, 2014). mcnulty, timothy. 2012. “pa. voter id law far from a done deal.” pittsburgh post-gazette. november 14. http://www.post-gazette.com/state/2012/11/14/pa-voter-id-law-far-froma-done-deal/stories/201211140169 (accessed july 7, 2014). miller, larry and eric mayes. 2012. “local advocates angered by new voter id law.” philadelphia tribune. march 15. http://www.phillytrib.com/newsarticles/item/ 3229local-advocates-denounce-id-bill.html (accessed july 7, 2014). morning call staff. 2012. “election: requests for ids bring voter complaints.” morning call. november 6. http://articles.mcall.com/2012-11-06/news/mc-pa-electionroundup-20121106_1_pennsylvania-s-voter-id-id-law-poll-workers (accessed july 7, 2014). office of the governor. 2014. governor corbett issues statement on recent commonwealth court ruling on voter id. may 8. http://www.pa.gov/pages/ newsdetails. aspx?agency=governors%20office&item=15598 (accessed july 7, 2014). ohio department of aging (oda). 2011. “are you carrying your life in your wallet?” boomerang. october. http://aging.ohio.gov/news/boomerang/2011october/ mylife.asp (accessed july 7, 2014). pearson, sophia, and ron musselman. 2013. “pennsylvania voter id law being argued anew to state court judge.” businessweek. july 15. http://www.businessweek. com/news/201307-15/pennsylvania-voter-id-law-being-argued-anew-to-state-court-judge (accessed july 7, 2014). pennsylvania election code–omnibus amendments. 2012. “act of mar. 14, 2012. p.l. 195, no. 18.” http://www.legis.state.pa.us/wu01/li/li/us/htm/2012/0/0018.htm (accessed july 7, 2014). pilkington, ed. 2012. “voter id laws a burden on poor, black americans, research shows.” the guardian. july 18. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jul/18/ voter-id-poorblack-americans (accessed july 7, 2014). quinnipiac university poll. 2012. “voter id.” http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/ quinnipiac-university-poll/pennsylvania/release-detail?releaseid=1761 (accessed july 7, 2014). reuters. 2012. “pennsylvania deficit was $162.8 mln in fiscal 2012.” july 3. http://www. reuters.com/article/2012/07/03/pennsylvania-def icit-idusl2e8i3f4w20120703 (accessed july 7, 2014). schaffer, frederic charles, and tova andrea wang. 2009. “is everyone else doing it? indiana’s voter identification law in international perspective.” harvard law & policy review 3: 397 –412. schattschneider, e. e. 1960. the semi-sovereign people. new york: holt, rinehart, and winston. senate enrolled act no. 483. 2005. http://www.in.gov/legislative/bills/2005/se/ se0483.1.html (accessed july 7, 2014). shawn, eric. 2013. “pennsylvania court hears arguments over controversial voter id law.” july 16. http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/07/15/pennsylvania-court-hearsarguments-over-controversial-voter-id-law (accessed july 7, 2014). slater, wayne. 2013. “few texas voter-fraud cases would have been prevented by photo id law, review shows.” dallas morning news. september 8. http:// www.dallasnews. com/news/politics/headlines/20130908-few-texas-voter-fraud-cases-would-have-beenprevented-by-photo-id-law-review-shows.ece (accessed july 7, 2014). 57 max guirguis max guirguis sullivan, john. 2012. “voting is a right rather than a privilege.” morning sun. october 6. http://www.morningsun.net/news/x422905158/voting-is-not-a-privilege-it-is-aconstitutional-right (accessed july 7, 2014). texas v. holder. 2012. 888 f. supp. 2d 113. thompson, charles. 2012a. “senate committee passes pennsylvania voter id bill to floor.” the patriot-news. march 5. http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/ 2012/03/ senate_committee_passes_pennsy.html (accessed july 7, 2014). thompson, krissah. 2012b. “study finds costs associated with voter ids.” washington post. july 18. http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/study-finds-costs-associated-withvoter-ids/2012/07/17/gjqalrcxsw_story.html (accessed july 7, 2014). ungar, rick. 2012. “pennsylvania voter suppression goes on trial–are the gop intentions pure?” forbes. july 24. http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickungar/2012/ 07/24/pennsylvaniavoter-suppression-goes-on-trial-are-the-gop-intentions-pure (accessed july 7, 2014). ward, sharon. 2011. “voter mandates costly to taxpayer.” may 10. http://pennbpc.org/ votermandates-costly-taxpayer (accessed july 7, 2014). wojcik, michael h. 2012. “why voter id isn’t needed: for one thing, casting a fraudulent vote isn’t worth the risk of years in prison.” pittsburgh post-gazette. september 26. http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/opinion/perspectives/ why-voter-id-isnt-neededfor-one-thing-casting-a-fraudulent-vote-isnt-worth-the-risk-of-years-in-prison-654916 (accessed july 7, 2014). worden, amy and jessica parks. 2012. “new ‘voter-only’ photo id card is unveiled.” the inquirer. august 28. http://articles.philly.com/2012-08-28/news/33425908_ 1_id-cardnew-voter-id-law-social-security-cards (accessed july 7, 2014). ó idealism, realism, and the categorical imperative in kant's perpetual peace gordon p. henderson widener university immanuel kant's philosophical system is devoted to reconciling the" a11ti­ nomy" between freedom and determmation. 111 perpetual peace, tlns becomes the related antinomy between morality and politics. this article reinterprets kant's political essays as efforts to reconcile the modern dichot07i1y in interna­ tional politics between idealism and realism. kant's application of his famous moral rule, the categorical imperative, to the problem of war and peace captures the tension between these contradictory approaches tn interl1atinnal relatinl1s. the reconciliation he achieves allows contemporary practitioners to be guard­ edly hopeful in their peacemaking efforts. propon.ents of the" democratic peace" thesis, which kant originated, would do well to control their cnthusiasm; yct critics should contain their cynicism. this article understands immanuel kant's perpetual peace1 as a philo­ sophical and practical application of the classic dichotomy between po­ litical idealism and political realism in international relations.2 philosophi­ cally, kant defines and seeks to mediate the seeming contradiction be­ tween politics and morality through the application of several formula­ tions of his categorical imperative. in so doing, he insists upon hopefulness about the prospects for inorality, and peace in particular, while also warn­ ing that hope must not give rise to paralyzing illusions about the facts of political life. in his prescriptions for international political practice, kant draws upon history, political science, and political logic to evaluate the philosophical worthiness of familiar types of political action. the result of these efforts is an essay that weaves together close analyses of the virtues, vices, and inextricable linkages between realism and idealism in politics. kant's political thought is a product of his overall philosophical sys­ tem.3 in the critique of pure reason,4 kant declares a copernican revolu­ tion in epistemology, in accordance with which he asks "whether we may not have more success ... if we suppose that objects must conform to our knowledge" (kant 1929, bxvi). in other words, what we count as knowledge consists of the systematic ordering by the categories of the understanding of -empirical and conceptual intuitions. this process of ordering is revolutionary because it means that we construct our knowl­ edge and experience rather than have them given to us. the kantian project is to examine and understand the rules of construction and to turn away from any effort to know things in themselves. kant thus un1 dertakes to make explicit the limits of knowing and the possibilities for action possessed by rational beings (kant 1929, bxxx). when presented with the results of the understanding's ordering of the data of empirical and conceptual experience, the faculty of pure rea­ son seeks to provide a single organizational scheme for all we know. rea­ son determines, however, that neither causality nor freedom can be af­ firmed or denied as the controlling principle of what we call experience. kant's solution to this "antinomy of reason" is the adoption of a critical standpoint from which reason is constantly checking these tendencies. reason's knowledge of itself therefore becomes as important as its knowl­ edge of experience. as a result, "the doctrine of morality [freedom] and the doctrine of nature [causality] may each ... make good its position ... in so far as criticism has previously established our unavoidable ignorance of things in themselves" (kant 1929, bxxix; also see a807 /b835).5 kant's understanding of political experience in general and of war and peace in particular can be extrapolated from this epistemological dualism. for kant, political experience, like 0.11 experience, is best understood as the systematic ordering of empirical and conceptual intuitions by the categories of the understanding. reason's efforts to find a single organi­ zational scheme by which to explain political experience spark its inter­ est in questions of war and peace. when the understanding apprehends all of the attendant suffering, death, and deprivation of war, it considers these as no more or less natural phenomena than the passing of a ship (kant 1929, a192/b237). rather than accept the phenomena of war with resignation, reason seeks to locate war within the causal chain, regard­ ing it as both cause and effect. regarding war as effect, reason explores such causes as human na­ ture, the nation-state, and the whole of the state system until, consider­ ing these also as effects, it comes to seek a final original cause. because of its "ignorance of things-in-themselves," however, reason cannot jdentify such a cause with certainty. unable to confirm or deny the necessity of war, reason therefore considers the possibility that war is not necessi­ tated by nature (kant 1929, bxxiii; kant 1957, 36, aa 371). reason determines that it must think war unnecessary when it con­ siders war not as effect but as cause. first, reason will come to recognize that the attendant deprivations of war, such as fear, hunger, military oc­ cupation, economic collapse, and death, would obstruct reason in its ef­ forts to attain knowledge of nature. reason is essentially rendered impo­ tent by war. second, since reason is unable ultimately to complete the determination of human beings in the causal chain, it must consider them as beings in possession of a self-determining will, that is, as ends in them­ selves. war thus has the additional consequence of obstructing human freedom. if humans are required always to act in response to the instru2 11h'lltalities of war, they cannot also exercise treec10m m pursmt of higher moral ends. practical reason therefore is also rendered impotent. given these conclusions, the eradication of \'var becomes a moral im­ }wrative. kant (1937, ] s, aa 356) insists that reason, "from its throne of supreme morallegis1ating authority, absolutely condemns war as a legal r~'course and makes peace a direct duty." elsewhere he writes, "morally prijchcal reason pronounces in us its irresistible veto: there is to be no "var" (kant 1991, 160, aa 354, emphasis in the original). but while war's t'rndication is an impcrntive whose possibility is enhanced by our inabil­ j t ~i to affirm the necessity of war, its achievement is fraught with empiri­ (,11 obstacles. if the end is peace, the means must at least sometimes be vv,w. this familiar dichotomy of peace and war makes manifest in the po­ litical realm the dichotomy between freedom and causality in epistemol­ ()gy. the resultant political antinomy of idealism and realism is also con­ i ill110us with those of religion and science as well as those of autonomy ,mel heteronomy. each of the poles of these antinomies has the force of its uwn truth in the struggle between them. as with epistemological antino­ mies, a critical standpoint from which mediation can take place is required. i n the various fields of human action, practical reason turns to the cat­ l·gorical imperative as that standpoint. although an extensive explication of the categorical imperative is be­ yond the scope of this article, a few brief remarks will help prepare for the analysis of kant's application of it to the antinomy of idealism and realism in international politics. in the ground'work for l7 metaphysics of l'vlorals, kant seeks a fundamental principle for moral choice universally applicable to all human situations (sullivan 1989, 149; also see kant 1956). as with critical reason in his epistemology, the categorical imperative and the procedures used to derive it are grounded in the limitations and possibilities of human practical reason, as kant understood them. that is, we cannot know whether actions that contradict the categorical im­ perative would be appropriate for beings other than ourselves. to kant, thought they are never appropriate for human beings. in the foulzdatiolls of the metaphysics of morals, kant articulates three formulations of the categorical imperative: 1. universalizability: i should never act except in such a way that i can also will that my maxim should become a universal law (kant 1959, 18, aa 402). 2. mutual respect: act in such a way that you always treat humanity, whether in your own person or in the person of any other, never simply as a means, but always at the same time as an end (kant .1959,47, aa 429). 3. publicity: never act in such a way that the maxim of your action could not be regarded as legitimate by all parties (kant 1959, 47, aa 381). 3 this article argues that kant's application of each of these formula­ tions of the categorical imperative to questions of war and peace in per­ petual peace mediates between the idea of peace and the realities of in­ ternational politics. i in his poignantly ironic introduction to the essay, kant (1957, 3, aa 343) says that his title is derived from" a satirical inscription [perpetual peace] on a dutch innkeeper's sign upon which a burial ground was palnled."6 the image of the graveyard suggesls lhat death 1::; the unly sort of perpetual peace likely to result from the failure to construct a careful balance of idealism and realism in politics. realists, who tend to accept and even relish the inevitability of war, put themselves and the rest of humanity in the grave by applying only force and instrumental reason to conflict. idealists neglect tactics and the verity of force in favor of some totalistic vision that lands themselves and humanity, again, in the grave. whether in pursuing knowledge or peace, the uncritical use of reason, metaphorically, is death. as f. h. hinsley (1963, 69) notes, the structure of perpetual peace takes "the form of a treaty ... with a preliminary and definitive articles and a secl"et article .... this tripartite structure includes, first, the conditions to be achieved; second, the measures necessary to achieve them; and third, the conditions under which it may be hoped that such measures will successfully be undertaken. each of these parts of the essay describes political arrangements that derive from the structure of the understand­ ing itself. we begin with the "pj:eliminary articles." . the "preliminary articles" are a catalogue of the concepts constitut­ ing the relations between nations living under perpetual peace. they are summed up in the idea that the only peace reason can know and com­ mand is perpetual. a peace treaty is to be "the end of all hostilities" (kant 1957,4, aa 33, emphasis mine). to call the seeming peace of a truce or ceasefire perpetual is "a dubious pleonasm." as hinsley (1963, 74) ob­ serves, "[w]hen kant wrote peace, he meant peace" (emphasis mine). despite the term "preliminary," these articles are not a list of actions whose outcome is to be peace. rather, they describe those relationships between and' among nations that for kant are truly peaceful. characterized by hinsley (1963, 69) as 1/ a statement of the law of nations as it ought to be," the preliminary articles insist upon mutual sovereign independence among nations while recognizing that their inherent competitiveness will drive them into conflict with each other. tn the tradition of contract theory, kant's preliminary articles are the terms to which he believed nations would agree if they wanted to coexist and compete peacefully.7 they combine a genuine idealism in the commitment to peaceful coexistence 4 with a sensible realism that recognizes the strain that competitiveness f1l"l'sents. any treaty whose terms fail to realize any of the preliminary ;\ rticles will end in war and is, in fact, no treaty at all. all parties must ,lgree at the outset that these are to be the outcome of their negotiations hdme they can even begin discussing the details of a treaty. the prelimi11<1 ry articles are the terms of international coexistence to which all na­ tions would agree. the six preliminary articles are divided into two parts, each consist­ ing of three provisions. the first three preliminary articles grouped ac­ (ourding to this division are: i. "no treaty of peace shall be held valid in which there is tacitly n'st'rved matter for a future war" (kant 1957, 3, aa 343). 2. "no state shall by force interfere with the constitution or govern­ l1ll'nt of another state" (kant 1957, 7, aa 346). 3. "no state shall, during war, permit such acts ot hostility which \vt )uld make mutual confidence in the subsequent peace impossible: such ,lrt' the employment of assassins, poisoners, breach of capitulation, and incitement to treason in the opposing state" (kant 1957, 7, aa 346). these three articles express idealism's vision of a genuine peace. fur­ i h.,1' evidence that kant understood them this wav is found in his insis01 it'nce that they "hold regardless of circumstances" and that they "deillillld prompt execution" if the peace is to be genuine (kant 1957,8, aa '\47). hence, these three articles are essential to the internal logic of trea­ li~'s, requiring at a minimum that the genuine intent be to establish peace. 'i 'rea ties that look to future battles and victories violate the categorical imperative's universalization requirement and are little more than veiled weapons of war (gr 18, aa 402). likewise, interventions in the affairs of uther states are inconsistent with the mutual respect requirement of the categorical imperative (gr 47, aa 429). realist objections to such com­ mitments and forbearance fail to recognize that insecurity in any part of ilw statf' systf'm will tmdprminf' the spc'll1'ity of 311 stbtes, if the resort to war is to be ij annihilated by the treaty of peace," the p<llties to the treaty must be able to trust one another to abide by its ll'rms (kant 1957, 4, aa 343). even in the midst of war, kant (1957, 7, aa ~46-347) argues, it must be assumed that an enemy will not be entirely without scruple. for realists such trust is little more than the "sweet d ream" of the philosophers; idealism can neverthel ess insist that untrust­ worthy actions contradict the categorical imperative and undermine a lasting peace (kant 1957, 3, aa 343). kant's categorical imperative means that individual acts, whether of .) person or a state, define for all actors the terms and boundaries of inter­ ,)ction. just as the liar loses the short term advantage of lying by being told lies in turn, states that deceive to achieve victory in diplomacy or 5 conquest will themselves eventually be defeated by deception. thus li­ ars beget lying, cheaters beget cheating, and warriors beget war. this is not to say that all liars, cheaters, and warriors will receive their just deserts. such a proposition could not be independently verified. for kant, how­ ever, the very discussion or peace presupposes ideahsm f s mslstence on the centrality of trust among nations. without it there will be a "war of extermination" permitting "perpetual peace only in the vast burial ground of the human race" (kant 1957, 8, aa 347). kant focuses in these three articles on the centrality to war of the ten­ dency to resolve conflicts with violence and the assumption that nations will disingenuously promise not to do so. by emphasizing the unreflec­ tive character of a thoroughgoing realism, he hints at its ultimate futility ill pulilll:~. realbls, whu lan never see beyond the conflict at hand, are destined to perpetuate and deepen it. peace treaties founded on exclu­ sively realist assumptions about their meaning are not peace treaties at all. the second set of "preliminary articles," which critiques ideallsm, makes the following points: 1. "no independent states, large or small, shall come under the domi­ nation of another state by inheritance, exchange, purchase, or donation" (kant 1957, 4, aa 344). 2. "standing armies shall in time be tot;:jlly ahol1shpd" (kant 1957, 4, aa345). 3. "national debts shall not be contracted with a view to the external friction of slales" (kanl 1957, 6, aa 345). if the first set of articles must hold immediately and "regardless of circumstances," this second set is not quite so constrained. kant calls them j/permissive laws" ot pure reason. the substance of these three ar­ ticles is unimportant to my analysis since they are not immediately to be enforced (kant 1957, 9n, aa348; also see kant 1957, 37-38,aa372). each of these provisions, like those in the first set of articles, seeks to eliminate force as a tool of conflict resolution. because peacemaking must occur in "prlcp and time, however, the mere assertion by idealists that peace is (or should be) at hand is insufficient to assure that it wil1 remain so:'1 the categorical imperative absolutely prohibits only those actions ·that would fundamentally undermine any hope of achieving peace. the second set of preliminary articles can remain unfulfilled without un­ dermining the integrity of the immediate commitment to the first three articles. nations will have to be prepared to endure the conditions of war until all can trust the sincerity of one another's commitment to peace. realism, then, does not violate the universalization formulation of the categorical imperative by reserving the resort to arms as a threat to maintain the "preliminary" peace. it would be possible, without un­ dermining the prospects for pe(lce, f01' nt'ltlons committed to establish6 jill-', peace to maintain standing armies long enough to ward off desta­ hilizing developments. nor does realism violate the mutual respect for­ illulation: the maintenance of colonies treats other nations as means (i lbjects) only in order eventually to treat them as ends. for kant, the \,11 tie of the categorical imperative lies not only in what it prohibits but .11.')0 in what the relative formality of its terms permit. just like criticism in l'pistemology, it must be applied carefully to each situation. the trag­ \'dv is that idealism fails to do so: in its enthusiasm for peace, the ab­ c,\'llce of realism's praemrltir pmipnrp invitps ::jggression again, any i rl\lty whose founding principles are overly idealistic is not a peace t rt',lty at all. for kant, the "preliminary articles" contain those principles that rea­ s\ 111 requires as constitutive of a genuine peace. they detail the minimal 111l1ditions necessary for the flourishing of reason in a global political \\)j1text. kant also uses the prehmmary articles to contrast the roles ot n'.llism and idealism in politics. realists focus on instrumental tactics t h'lt undermine the fabric of trust essential to a lasting peace. in their /('<11 to achieve tactical success in the short term, they compel others to d () likewise, thereby reinforcing the suspicions rather than the trust of ,111. idealists also undermine their intf'ndpd gains hom the rreliininary f11'i:lce by acting unreflectively on the idea of trust. their illusory confi­ dvnce that other states are motivated either by good will or rational cal­ ndation to abstain from aggression leads to a complaisance destined to 111"0111pt the aggression of realists until they are allied to "the vast burial ground of the human race" (kant 19578, aa 347). idealists and realists get carried away with themselves. their obses­ ')ion with their own internal principles leads them to unreflective and \'ontradictory choices. especially at critical junctures, both idealists and 1"l'ajists violate the categorical imperative's requirement that actions be universalizable. they unreflectively fall back on a rule of thumb rather t hem make a careful assessment of circumstances and consequences. achievement of peace thus becomes a hopeless endeavor. avoidance of \'var becomes a mere luxury afforded only by exhaustion or good luck. acceptance of war's inevitability is not an option for kant. the atten­ dant deprivations of war, such as fear, hunger, military expense, eco­ nomic collapse, disease, and death would obstruct human achievement in knowledge and morality (kant 195712, aa 351). the requisite collegi­ ,11 i ty and high cost of science cannot be sustained during wartime. worse, vvar requires people to act in response to the instrumentalities of war­ f'he. as such they cannot exercise their inherent freedom to obey the commands of the categorical imperative. these inhuman consequences of war compel reason to seek war's eradication, however quixotic that may appear to be. 7 the centrality of human freedom to kant's entire philosophical system and the tendency of war to obliterate the possibility of freedom blur the distinction between idealism and realism in international politics. idealism is prior and superior to realism in that it derives from the "commands (leges praeceptivae) and prohibitions (leges prohibitivae)" of pure reason. realism, on the other hand, derives its authority from these commands and prohibi­ tions. idealism acts on the positive and negative obligations of what, in the doctrine of virtue, kant calls "narrow" duties. such duties as the command to end war or the prohibition against intervention in domestic disputes are absolute obligations. by contrast, realism can act only to create and main­ tain the conditions required for the fulfillment of narrow duties. kant (1991, 65, 194, aa, 240, 390) refers to these obligations of realism as "wide" duties to distinguish them from narrow duties. 9 whereas narrow duties are dear and stand alone, wide duties are derivative, contingent on the circumstances in which they are undertaken and bounded by the narrow duties that they are positively to achieve or negatively not to contradict. because idealism always acts from narrow duties, often to a fault, realism is always taking its cue from the idealist. yet, realism itself cannot set the standards of action. it can only act within the standards established by idealism. narrow duties are the master of wide duties, and idealism is the master of realism. the significance of this doctrine of the primacy of the ideal in kant's essay warrants illustration. imagine caricatures of the idealist and real­ ist. in the political machinations that lead to the outbreak of war, the realist patiently, sometimes not so patiently, urges the idealist to make a show of strength, to distrust the enemy, and to beware of sinister plots and tactics. the idealist stalls for time in anticipation of a final and tri­ umphant "peace is at hand" press conference. when the shooting starts, however, the realist orders the idealist aside. war is a military, not a moral enterprise, the realist will claim. with that much the idealist will agree, while reminding the realist that it is for peace, not perpetual war, that the realist's services are engaged. however virile the realist's posture, the end of realism is peace, not merely victory. just as the "intuitions" of the first critique are "blindll without "con­ cepts," so is the realist without the guidance of the idealist (kant 1929, a 51/ b 75). war is a non-moral activity. when a battlefield victory is achieved, the war is merely redefined, not ended. neither the categorical imperative nor the logic of politics can accept the kind of peace that is ar.hieved and maintained by force. thus, while idealists do not always dominate the stage, they are always present in repeating the command, which defines the boundaries of a realist's choices: "there is to be no war" (kant 1991, 160, aa 354). like "empty concepts" that have no em­ pirical referents, however, idealism must be wary of the illusion that be­ cause there is to be no war, there will be none. 8 ii we turn now to kant's delineabon of the means by which the prelimi11, i rv articles are to be realized. in the "definitive articles for perpetual i \\ice," kant describes the practical steps necessary to the achievement i. ji ,1 perpetual peace. in formulating the means to this end, he again steers d nitical course between idealism nnd re81ism hy trlkin8 ;.:lccount of both i ill' commands of morality and the empirical constraints imposed by poh­ til's (kant 1957, 35, aa 370). the "definitive articles" are introduced with the observation that "[t]he '>llte of peace among men living side by side is not the natural state; the il.ltural state is one of war. this does not always mean open hostilities, htl! at least an unceasing threat of war" (kant 1957 la, aa 348-349). the l'stllblishment of peace, contrary to the skepticism of the realists, is both morally necessary and empirically possible. contrary to the dogmatism i lithe idealists, however, peace must be established in the natural context .1ild thus prudentially. this duty to establish a peace consistent with both i ill' standards of morality and the constraints of nahm:> le8cls kant to con­ ('iude that it can be achieved only if relations among people are arranged .is if it is their will to be at peace with one another. they need not actually will peace but merely do so externally (juridically) by conforming to laws i hilt have them act as though they do. while political idealism is restricted i (i sdting as ends the standard of human behavior, political realism must devise morally legitimate means, in nature, to accomplish it. in view of these considerations, kant (1957, lon, aa 350) postulates ihat "[a]l1 men who can reciprocally influence one another must stand tinder some civil constitution." that is, in order to assure the law-abiding hl'havior necessary to peace, humans must codify right conduct contrac­ iui:llly. in all contracts, parties must agree on what their relations ought to he and then on those means of achieving them that are most consistent vvith the moral principles that require those relations. peace rests upon sl'curity /i against hostility ... pledged to each by his neighbor." such pledges, howevel~ "can occur only in a civil state"; otherwise, "each may treat his neighbor, from whom he demands this security, as an enemy" . (kant 1957,10, aa349). peace thus requires the establishment of a consti­ tutional context. without this context, such pledges would be empty and ('(mld not effectuate the moral requirement for peace. hence, idealism's nptimistic faith in the effectiveness of mutual pledges of friendship is tem­ pered by realism's cautioning on the need for sufficient civil authority to ,1 void the deterioration of pledges into empty promise's. the' specific 111e'ans devised to achieve that security will differ among different societies as well as among different levels of political relations. each of the three "de­ finitive articles" describes that constihltion (contract) consistent with these 9 requirements that would exist at three levels of political relationship: be­ hveen individuals in a nation, behveen nations of the world, ,mel beh .... ,pell individuals considered as world citizens (kant 1957, 10-11n, aa 350). at the level of individuals in a nation, kant offers the "first definitive article for perpetual peace," the iuea that "the civll conslitution of :ev­ ery state should be republican." it is "[t]he only constitution which de­ rives from the idea of the original compact, and on which all juridical legislation of a people must be based" (kant 1957, 11, aa 350). kant's enthusiasm for the republican form, which he defines as a separation of the executive and legislative powers, stems from the idea that republi­ canism takes the social contract seriously in acknowledging the princi­ pal role of the citizenry in constituting political societies. there can be no domestic peace without the contract, and there can be no contract with­ out the participation of the entire society in its construction. the repubh­ can constitution, then, is founded upon the idealist notion that all gov­ ernment derives from the contractual coil~ellt of lhe governed. several implications for the treatment of citizens derive from this ide­ alist foundation of the republican constitution. first, each person is en­ titled to a liberty consistent with that of other people. without this prin­ ciple, there could have been no consent, and no ongoing consent, to the social contract. second; each person is to be subject to one common law, without which there could be no ground for agreement in conflicts. fi­ nally, each person is to be exactly equal to every other person with re­ spect both to the law and to responsibility. without such equality, there could be no true contract because the stronger party would have dic­ tated its terms to the weaker (kant 1957, 12, aa 349-350). like othert; ill lhe conlracl lradition, particularly rousseau, kant re­ gards the will of the citizenry as the foundation of authority over it. politi­ cal authority is never exercised over people without their consent, even when they are passive or have never explicitly given it. in giving this con­ sent, they commit themselves to a social rather than private existence. they become citizens. the categorical imperative's insistence on autonomy (lib­ erty), universalizability (law), and respect for people (equality) is most closely approximated in the republic because it is by definition a society co"nstituted by citizens. consequently, republic;:!ni"m "ie; thf' original basis of every form of civil constitution" (kant 1957, 12, aa 351). although the fundamental idea behind the constitution is that it will establish a common law to which all consent and are equally subject, kant is not suggesting that the citizens directly formulate that law in an empirical sense. the principal function of the law is to institute the con­ ditions of peace. it must not be construed as an expression of collective self-interest. it is a law that expresses the "general will" of the people, to which they "would" consent (kant 1957, 12n, aa 351). in other words, 10 ii)" republic is not a direct denlocracy. i )emocracy is "necessarily a despotism, because it establishes an ex­ "'lilive in which all ... who are not quite all, decide, and this is a contra­ ,ill lion of the general will with itself and with freedom" (kant 1957,14, \;\ :'52). direct democracy returns people to a state of war by placing ',i 1\'l'reignty in the hands of the majority. kant thus dismisses the idealist \\ illl might mistake him as saying that political legitimacy requires the "illpirical consent of people who, by nature, are self-interested. to the (i lillrary, it requires the consent of reason as expressed by rational beings ii]j'( lugh the general will. with a nod toward the realists, kant further (" ,..;c'rves that the law can be effective even in thfl conduct of /i a race of d,'vils," as long as the state is organized well and the citizens are intelll­ :,~i 'nl enough to follow its incentives. specifically, "the powers of each selfish inclination are so arranged in oppo­ si tion that one moderates or destroys the ruinous effects of the other. the consequence for reason is the same as if none of [these inclinations] existed, and man is forced to be a good citizen even if not a morally good man." (kant 1957, 30, aa 366) kant's republic, then, is governed for and through the people but not 'll'cl'ssarily by them. it would be ruled by a preferably small number of 1i'11ri>sentrltivfls, fllthflr an aristocracy or a monarchy who would frame 1,)\vs that facilitate the orderly clash of interests. on the one hand, kant's !'i ,,]1 ism warns that the larger the number of rulers (such as collective illonarchies, corporatist aristocracies, or representative democracies), he ,~~rl',lter is the likely influence of self-interest (kant 1957, 15, aa 353). on ilw other hand, realism also warns that however small the number of n iil'rs, they might become just as despotic as democracies by ruling in ilwi r self-interest. nevertheless, "it is at least possible for [aristocracies ,1ild monarchies] to assume a mode of government conforming to the "pi rit of a representative system/' while it is impossible in democracies "since everyone wishes to be master" (kant 1957, 14, aa 353). idealism pft'vails in the insistence that a citizen's right to pursue self-interest is lundamental to the good constitution, whereas realism points away from ,h'l1locracy and is only guardedly optimistic about the republican poten­ i i,ll of monarchy and aristocracy. ultimately, the republican mode of gov­ ernment is to harness the selfish inclination against war. the "second definitive article for perpetual peace," that "the law of 1\j(ltions shall be founded on a federation of free states," depends upon l he first article. according to kant, it is not only conflict among them­ sl'lves as individuals that inclines people to form themselves into a state i if ordered liberty. "even if a people were not forced by internal discord [n submit to public laws," he writes, "war would compel them to do so" 11 (kant 1957, 29, aa 365). thev will inevitably find themselves surrounded . . and threatened by individual states in the same way they are threatened by other individuals. the need to defend against this threat requires the formation of a state in which selfish inclinations can be prevented from interfering with collective self-defense. domestic peace, albeit among "uevlb," l~ e~~elllidllu llllenldliollal peace, which is likewise essenliallo the fruits of domestic peace. this continuum of domestic and interna­ tional political order means that the two are not much different from each other and that idealism and realism will occupy the same positions in framing an international peace as they do at the domestic level. according to kant, citizens of republics will be disinclined to go to war because the true general will, expressed by citizens or their repre­ sentatives, would not consent to a declaration of war. "[n]othing is more natural," he writes, than that people would be livery cautious in com­ mencing such a poor game, decreeing for themselves all the calamities of war" (kant 1957, 12, aa 351). even if people are naturally inclined to­ ward war when they dre uut~iue the ~tdle, lhey would nol consenllo il if their liberty under a republican constitution, if not their own morally developed individual wills, prohibits it (kant 1957, 17, aa 355). the fea­ ture of republics that inclines them to peace thus lies in their constitu­ tion. a republic is a state in which the citizenry has a direct stake. its existence is dependent upon their individual as well as collective wills and is at least implicitly formed and maintained by them for the sake of their liberty to pursue their particular interests. for kant, the republican stl'ltp has pprsona lity. tts citizens will only reluctantly go to war, and then only to preserve their freedom from outside invasion. the personality of republican states also makes untenable the achieve­ ment of global peace by means of a world republic. an idealist might advocate a world republic on the ground that all peoples could live to­ gether under one global personality. realists might advocate a world republic or government as the only way to prevent wars, skeptically sub­ stituting a powerful central regime for the hope that republics would refrain from war. yet republics, having been formed by the will of a spe­ cific group of people, will be reluctant to surrender the autonomy achieved in that act of will to the will of other peoples. thus, while the republican personality might give the idealist cause for hope, the realist wlll pm­ phasize that "personalities," however much inclined they are toward com­ munity over conflict, will nevertheless insist on their autonomy. these cunsideralions necessitate the federation of free states. although conflicts inevitably will arise among their differing personalities, the fed­ eration preserves the autonomy of each member state. republican states, animated by their individual personalities and reluctant to go to war unnecessarily, are mindful of the need for a system of law to provide 12 \111 il,ctive security that is least threatening to individual autonomy. while lllld i ng such law in the federation, they no more attribute a truly good \\ i ii to the participant states than they do to the citizens of the republic. i .i kc the republic, the federation is necessarily a weak alternative never­ tlll'il'ss dictated by reason. it can come about when "a powerful and en­ lightened people" makes itself a republic, thereby inclining itself to per­ jld uc11 peace, and in thp intel"!?st of extending its freedorn., coming to serve .1'-; ,1 "fulcrum to the federation" (kant 1957, 18-19, aa 356). at best, it \ \' i ii become" only the negative surrogate of an alliance which averts war, "l1d ures, spreads, and holds back the stream of lhose hoslile pdssiuns which fear the law, though such an alliance is in constant peril of their i 1 i'l'<l king loose" (kant 1957, 20, aa 357). 'rhe federation is a pragmatic response to the imperative of perpetual jlt'.1ce. it meets the command of the categorical imperative to undertake .jl"[iulls that are universalizable but not totalistic. the categorical impera­ lin' prohibits actions that would lead directly to war but permits actions 111.1l, while perhaps not ideal, are benign. states can form themselves into a ft'licration for the purpose of estt'lhlishin8 a frrtmework for peace without ·,.lnificing their autonomy as personalities. were it to be otherwise, realists \\'lluld note, individual states would seek ways to break out of the federa­ ii< >11. idealism obtains its de facto peace, whereas realism restrains the incli11.1lion toward a global autarchy that would ultimately prove fatal. 'rhe federation is also consistent with the mutual respect formulation lli the categorical imperative. the formation of a league among states, whose relationships are defined by a law they collectively choose, imple­ ll11'nts the requirement that they treat each other as ends. that they may ii )ntinue to regard each other's actions with suspicion and maintain their 11.1 tional identity is consistent with the permission they have to treat each nlher as means. for idealism, states must treat each other as ends; for i"l'<llism, they need not do so blindly at their own expense. the third "definitive article" states: "the law of world citizenship :-;klll be limited to conditions of universal hospitality" (kant 1957, 20, aa \:-17). quite simply, all people possess "a right of temporary sojourn, a right to associate ... by virtue of their common possession of the surface \)1' the earth" (kant 1957, 21, aa 358). idealism's commands here, as they s\) often are, are double-edged. people as individuals have the right to i ravel to other places controlled by other states. merely occupying a piece \)f ground does not entitle one people to exclude others. yet, just as physi­ \',11 possession does not grant exclusive title, the common possession of i':,lrth does not permit invasion, pillage, and colonialism. if all stc'ltf's actpd in accordance with these limiting principles, no state could entirely iso­ illte itself or intrude so completely on another as to undermine the latter's self-identity. the integrity of the state as personality is as dependent upon 13 contact with other states as on security against excessive intrusion. as always, idealism's standards cannot be met by idealist means. rather, kant suggests that the principal form of the contact between states is commercial. one need not rely on idealist notions of cosmopolitan sen­ sibility that bring "the human race ... closer and closer to a constitution establishing world citizenship" (kant 1957, 21, aa358). the profit motive will be increasingly sufficient to reduce the likelihood that violence will be used to resolve the inevitable conflicts among human societies. just as good citizenship at the domestic level depends more on or8;:)ni7,ation than on virtue, a global "kingdom of ends"10 depends more on the invisible hand of the marketplace than on the triumph of good over evil. the "definitive articles," centrally located in the essay~ are also the centerpiece of its conceptual composition. they reject in turn those real­ ist assertions of the intractability of war: that human nature is warlike; that nation-states, by definition, cannot forbear war; and that mutual un­ derstanding and "hospitality" between peoples are restrained by and can thus never overcome the previous two assertions. each assertion, considered as a matter of realistic thinking, stands refuted on the ground of the irrefutability, and hence possibility~ of the commands of idealism. the "definhive artide~" reject the ideali~t notion that merely assert­ ing the possibility of political right guarantees its success. they do so by insisting that while the appropriate steps toward peace must be consis­ tent with the categorical imperative, they must nevertheless occur in space and time and thus be consistent with political prudence. national gov­ ernments cannot be pure democracies. international organization cannot be world government. world citizenship does not obliterate nationalism. in these ways, the "definitive articles" comprise a practical formula for the "establishment" of the peace described in the "preliminary ar­ ticles." they demand the fulfillment of both narrow and wide duties. the categorical imperative is intended to promote the same critical standpoint in practical affairs that is required in epistemology. the attainment of peace thus requires a "political wisdom" that critically restrains the realist and idealist extremes to which each is led by the proximity and vanity of its perspective (kant 1929, a475, b503). only in this way can reason fuwil its "architectonic interest" indeed, its very survival by escaping the peace of the innkeeper's sign (kant 1929, a474-475, b502-503). whether nations, their leaders, or their citizens would sacrifice their own self-in­ terest to the longer-term vision of a lasting peace begs the question of the prospects for peace and the federation that is to maintain it. if there is no hope of humanity taking such actions, there is little point in discussing the preliminary and definitive articles other than, perhaps, to produce a kind of anthropology of political ideas. since kant disdained such idle speculation, his response to the question of hope warrants close scrutiny. 14 in in order to fathom and evaluate kant's response to this important ques­ tion of hope, we return to the categorical irnperative, \l\1h1ch is the fruit of kant's search for a fundamental moral principle applicable to all human situations (sullivan 1989, 149). in addition to serving as a guide for ac­ tion, the categorical imperative is also the expression of the first proof that there is hope for peace. in the critique ~f pure reason, kant foreshad­ ows his later work in practical philosophy. he assumes lhal"there really are pure moral laws which determine, completely a priori (without re­ gard to empirical motives, that is, to happiness) what is and is not to be done/' and that "since reason commands that such actions should take place, it must be possible for them to take place" (kant 1929, a807, b835). here and in his ethical works, kant argues both that there is a moral law and that, jf it is to be taken seriously, it entails the concept of duty. this theme is continued in perpetual peace: taken objectively, morality is in itself practical, being the to­ tality of unconditionally mandatory laws according to which we ought to act. it would obviously be absurd, after granting au­ thority to the concept of duty, to pretend that we cannot do our duty .... consequently, there can be no conflict of politics as a practical doctrine of right, with ethics, as a theoretical doctrine of right. (kant 1957, 35, aa 370) as kant (1957, 46, aa 380) puts it, the first justification for hope is that "pure principles of right have objective reality." the vision of peace im­ plicit in idealism and specified in the preliminary articles is actual. it there­ fore entails the duty obey it. yet, the mere assertion that the idea of per­ petual peace is actual, that we have a duty to fulfill it, and that that duty implies possibility is insufficient proof of hope that we might actually do so. for realism, this would be the height of idealisnl's folly. no ruler can be expected to make the sacrificial leap of faith entailed by such a duty. in order to strengthen his position on this issue, kant offers a political formulation of the categorical imperative: "all actions relating to the right of other men are unjust if their maxim is not consistent with publicity" (kant 1957, 47, aa 381). this formulation asks whether an action with political consequences is capable ot passing public scrutiny. secret machi­ nations, policies, and agendas are suspect by definition. publicity requires full disclosure. if any attributes of any action or agreement could not survive unless hidden from those affected, then the agreement or action must be discarded. the publicity formulation restates the universalization formulation of the categorical imperative in empirical language and thereby serves 15 as the vehicle by which ought becomes is in politics. more precisely, the publicity requirement sets a standard for politics and provides a con­ crete way to measure its attainment. as discussed by kant in the prelimi­ nary articles, the most important component of peaceful politics is trust. publicity requires that parties to an agreement promise not to undercut it by secret decisions. it is simply the rule of non-contradiction; where there is deception, there is no real agreement; and where there is no agree­ ment, there can be no peace. l{ealists will be skeptical of this argument. even though there is a prac­ tical formula for measuring the conformity of politics with the moral law, there is still no apparent incentive for rulers or the public to apply it. kant (1957,33-34, aa 368-369) offers an ironic response in the "secret article for perpetual peace." he begins by reemphasizing that secret clauses in contracts, especially those having to do with political society, are a funda­ mental violation of the law of non-contradiction. he then proceeds to the ironic exception to this rule: rulers may keep secret from their respective publics and each other that they listen to the advice of philosophers. this exception is made for several reasons. first, philosophers are the bearers of the moral law because they possess and articulate "the un­ trammeled judgment of reason." since they are "by nature incapable of plotting and lobbying," they can be trusted to speak candidly. second, leaders are expected to strike the pose of might, not right, to their en­ emies. it would be "humiliating to the legislative authority of a state" if its susceptibility to the influence of philosophers were known by its en­ f'mif'f:l (k~nt 19,,7, .'i:i, a a :ifir)_ thirn, philosophers should not be given any more than a hearing because to give them power of influence would "inevitably" corrupt their judgment. fourth, as a practical matter, this pro­ viso is not to suggest that "kings or kinglike peoples who rule themselves" ought to become philosophers, for their task is governing, not contem­ plation. yet rulers, whether in monarchy or republics, should always al­ low philosophers to speak because their opinions are "indispensable to the enlightenment of the business of government." in any case, to censor philosophers is to acknowledge their influence (kant 1957, 34, aa 369). hope for peace is strengthened by the "secret article" because phi­ losophers are the voice of idealists, the keepers of the moral law. since the possibility of their influence is to be kept secret,. thf'rf' is no rf'clson to silence them and the idea of peace they articulate. thus, says kant (1957, 46, aa 380), "the moral principle in man is never extinguished." like­ wise, idealists are not to have the influence that would lead to a danger­ ous neglect of the practical matters so central to statesmanship. leaders need not be idealists but may concentrate on the realist task assigned to them. nevertheless, their actions will always occur against the backdrop of the command, "there shall be no war" (kant 1991, 160, aa 354). 16 a derivative significance of the articie" in pernetual peace is '-, j its permissiveness. the publicity requirement of the cmpf:;nricnl irnp(~rpltive is not absolute with regard to philosophers. just as actions that do not contradict the universalization or mutual respect formulations of the cat­ egorical imperative are permitted, so too are actions that do not directly contradict publicity. for instance, standing armies can be maintained with­ out violating universalization; states within a federation can still be wary of member states without violating mutual respect; and weapons devel­ opment, lend-lease plans, and even doomsday planning could remain se­ cret without violating the rule of publicity. the categorical imperative lays down boundaries to action, narrow duties, which are absolute. yet, there is wide latitude in practice by which to meet these obligations. on the question of ilnpf' fm pf'l'lcf'r kl'lnt to this point hl'l5: 1) declared the objectivity of the moral1aw that requires peace; 2) established a con­ crete means for measuring political conformity to the categorical impera­ tive (publicity); 3) identified a class of people (philosophers) who articu­ late that law; and 4) rendered it unnecessary for leaders to acknowledge that they are guided by morality. he has not, however, answered the ques­ tion. after all, even if leaders were to listen to and act upon the advice of philosophers, they might not meet with enough success to sustain that course of action. in other words, virtuous ends do not guarantee success­ ful means. according to the "first supplement: on the guarantee of per­ petual peace," nature, not human action, provides this guarantee. in this section, kant posits nature directing humanity toward peace in spite of itself. in particular, those hostile inclinations that lead people to war actually serve to draw them closer to the idea of peace by high­ lighting the costs of war. differences of "language and religion" serve to prevent attempts at world government while also increasing the pro­ pensity to engage in commerce which is "incompatible with war" (kant 1957,31-32, aa 367-368). although kant (1957, 30-31/ aa 366-367) is careful not to attribute to nature "the profound wisdom of a higher cause" or "a cunning contriv­ ance," he might as well have done so, for he cannot resist exclaiming that i/[njature inexorably wills that the right should finally triumph," even if not by attaining "the moral improvement of men." nature "guarantees perpetual peace by the mechanism of human passions." yet, ii she does not do so with sufficient certainty for us to predict the future in any theo­ retical sense," even though the hunger for hope might make our empiri­ cal observations of human interrelations appear to confirm that this is nature's design. it therefore remains our duty to work for peace con­ sciously (kant 1957, 32, aa 368). the question of hope is again a question of human volition: hope for peace depends upon the willingness of human beings to pursue peace. 17 k;:mt's ;:mswpl" rpljes upon the practical idea that individual persoll.alities must be combined into a collective personality. individuals will not will peace. but if merged into a collective, they acquire a social personality that can will peace for them. as a praclicalrllaller, kdjlt is careful to note that this collective personality can only be formed by means of coercion. one "legislator" will have to form a nation from "a horde of savages" (kant 1957, 36, aa 371). this being so, the legislator will be unwilling to permit them to form their own constitution. because rule thus begins with force, it will be exercised tyrannically. hope for peace continues to rest upon volition, albeit of the leadership of a single nation. the leader of a nation founded in coercion must, of course, maintain the collective through coercion. it becomes difficult to see how leaders and their policies can be anything but realist. a leader might err as a ijdespotic moralist," prematurely acting on idealist principles without giving due attention to praclical cohslrainb. nundhdess, time and ex­ perience will cause leaders and their successors to take a more realistic course (kant 1957, 38-39, aa 373). on the other hand, rulers who cannot forget that nations are formed by force are unlikely to shape policy in accordance with anything other than practical experience. as this is likely always to teach them cynicism about human nature, the idea of peace, let alone its deliberate pursuit, will not constitute an influence over policy. unlike the "despotic moralist," the "political moralist" will never "learn" from experience but will instead be guided by it, forgetting that the es­ tablishment of a collectivity, albeit by force, merely fulfills a wide duty on the way to fulfillment of the narrow duty toward peace. kant is confident that political moralists, the epilolile vf realbm in politics, cannot continue indefinitely. their maxims are transparent, self. contradictory; and ultimately self-destructive (kant 1957, 40, 45, aa 3745, 379). their arrogance is impossible to sustain because of the variety, number, and complexity of information they must use in their calcula­ tions (kant 1957, 43, aa 377). even if they mean to achieve peace, as most realists claim to do, they are more likely to be ensnared by their own machinations. the tragedy of realism for a people is that its demise and whatever lessons it has to tf'8ch arp a long time in coming. better, says kant, that rulers adopt "political wisdom" as their guide. while a course of action must be thoroughly grounded in the intricacies of empirical experience, no action should be taken that cannot fit the standard of publicity. prudent maxims that also conform to the political formulation of the categorical imperative will achieve peace more effec­ tively than either idealism or realism. the principle of publicity defines that narrow duty in the fulfillment of which leaders may choose any number of pragmatic courses. in times of intensely confused conflict, the best course would be to take small, sometimes seemingly cold-hearted 18 steps mure lun::-;btellt i'vitj t d l11uloughgoing reallsm. al olher limes, com­ merce or war-weariness may make possible grander idealist steps to­ ward peace, such as the establishment of international institutions and agreements. the wisdom of experience tempered by a focus on the ad­ vancement toward peace would determine the extent of action under either scenario, bounded always by the requirement of publicity. kant's response to the question of hope rests ultimately on his provi­ sion of a rule, publicity, by which realism and idealism might be bal­ anced in politics. he seeks both empirical and moral grounds for guar­ anteeing that peace can, and will, be achieved. that guarantee, however, is always dependent upon human volition. knowledge of the moral im­ perative does not assure that the duty will be met; philu::;uphert::i mighl not be permitted to keep the idea alive; and rulers might not take up their duties. hope for peace is embodied in its availability, not its neces­ sity. the objective reality of the idea of perpetual peace simply does not guarantee its practical manifestation. iv kant's failure to answer with finality the question of whether there is hope for perpetual peace is wholly consistent with his "critical" philoso­ phy. moreovel~ this failure captures the message of perpetllal peace for practitioners and theorists of international politics alike. the antinomy between idealism and realit::>m it::> diilelldble only lo mediallon, not resolu­ tion. like antinomies of knowledge (freedom and causality), ethics (au­ tonomy and heteronomy), and religion (god and nature), so too do hu­ man understanding and pure reason leave us, at best, with an orderly untidiness. the order results from criticism's restraint of the poles of each antinomy. the untidiness follows because criticism is an ongoing pro­ cess: new data, new situations, new beliefs, and new interests reinvigo­ rate the antinomies of knowledge, ethics, religion; and politics. there seems to be no guarantee of perpetucd perlcf' even though he genuinely despises the cruel brutality and irrational­ ity of the practice of politics at all levels of governance, kant never offers mure than spe<.:ulative hupe fur all end to it. to do otherwise would go well beyond the boundaries of his philosophical system. instead, he of­ fers hopefulness grounded in the establishment of liberal (republican) polities and their international parallel, the federation. liberalism's chief virtue is its institutionalization of a critical perspective sufficient to re­ strain the darkness of realist despair and the blinding light of idealist hubris. its openness and intelligence make any long-term commitment to either polarity nearly impossible and minimize any historically sig­ nificant damage stemming from such commitments. of course, either idealism or realism, separately or in tragic combination, can return to 19 wreak their special havoc on a global scale at any time. nevertheless, kant urges us to be hopeful that such episodes will be brief, survivable, and incrl:>;1c:;ine1y infrequent. as the number of liberal regimes increases, he hypothesizes, the less likely will be violent outbreaks among them. nature will "accomplish what reason could have suggested ... without so much sad experience" (kant 1949, 120). kant's hypotheses have been put to the test by history and the rela­ tively sophisticated tools of social scientific analysis that emerged after world war ii. under the heading of the "democratic peace debate," schol­ ars of international politics have examined the empirical evidence to determine whether, and if so, why, liberal democracies pursue nonvio­ lent means of resolving the conflicts that arise among them. the demo­ cratic peace thesis, initially framed by doyle (1983), has sparked much schoblrly dpbate l1 yet, the western democracies, led by the united states, have pronounced a renewed commitment to pro-democratic policies on the presupposition that democracies (the republican form) are inclined to peace at least with one another. based upon a survey of wars over a two hundred year period, doyle (1983, 213) concludes that "even though liberal states have become in­ volved in numerous wars with non-liberal states, constitutionally secure liberal states have yet to engage in war with one another." he takes a kantian approach to explain his claim by looking to the internal charac­ ter of modern liberal democracy. such regimes, he says, possess a com­ mitment to mutual non-intervention, regular rotation in office, and sta­ bilizing internal constitunonalstructures such as separation of powers. anticipating realist criticism, doyle is careful to note that these regimes do not hesitate to go to war with non-democratic states when it is in their interest to do so. still, he insists that realism cannot deny his findings. even if peace among democratic states is little more than "prudent di­ plomacy," this ii cannot account for more than a century and a half of peace among independent liberal states, many of which have crowded one another in the center of europe" (doyle 1983,213). dixon (1994) takes as a given that democracies are as likely to become engaged in international conflict as are non-democracies, but he also rec­ ognizes that they are more likely to settle serious disputes with one an­ other before military hostilities develop."in his "search for a satisfactory explanation," he turns to the procedural norms he finds to typify democra­ cies. "the particular bundle of norms to which he attributes the tendency of democracies to seek peaceful settlements to their disputes is "bounded competition.""in the management of their own highly competitive internal affairs (elections and markets, for example), democracies develop habits and skills at cont1ict resolution that are then carried over into their rela­ tions with other similarly constituted states."as a result, when democra20 cies do confront other democracies, "these shared norms of bounded com­ petition will provide a mutual basis for contingent consent, suggesting that dispules between democracies should evolve somewhat differently than do disputes between states not sharing these norms" (dixon 1994, 17). of the many realist critiques of the democratic peace thesis, that of farber and gowa (1995) is typical."doyle's evidence, they argue, can be explained as prudence at work; democratic norms are not necessarily the reason for the apparent pacific union among liberal democracies." since peaceful conflict resolution usually perpetuates the status quo to the advantage of winners, they are likely publicly to celebrate such out­ comes in terms that de-emphasize self-interest. moreover, negotiated settlements are less expensive than wars, especially when high-stakes international commerce is involved." if liberal democracies are so peace lovillt" litey ask, why are lhey willing to go to war with undemocratic states?" they also question the data itself." besides claiming that the pa­ cific union among liberal democracies existed mainly during the cold "var era, they make the hobbesian point that the threat of war is suffi­ cient to characterize a conflict as war." thus, they emphasize incidents of "militarized interstate disputes." in another variation of the realist critique, mansfield and snyder (1995) reconfigure the data to distinguish between mature and emel"ging de­ mocracies. the latter, they claim, lack the institutional stability required to restrain the war-making inclinations of those elite interests and par­ ties that stand to lose in democratization. lithe ferocity of elite power struggles nlakes ernerging democracies particularly dangerous." promot­ ing democracy around the world in the name of the democratic peace could produce another of those ironies so typical of politics: "idealism's faith in democracy is turned on its head by the instability of democratization." according to another of realism's proponents, demo­ cratic peace theory is "dangerous" in that its "zone of peace is a peace of illusions. there is no evidence that democracy at the unit level negates the structural effects of anarchy at the level of the international political system"(t .rlyne 1994, 4r; rll!=>() see waltz 19.59). elsewhere he observes that "the democratic-peace theory blinds us to the fact that what really counts in international politics is power." capturing kant's own warnings in the preliminary articles against idealism's tendency to be too trusting too quickly, another realist concludes that" certain states that we don't worry about now as threats to our security, because they are democra­ cies, may in fact prove to be real threats down the line. if we have ideo­ logical blinders on, we may not see that" (shea 1996, a7). more recent work on the democratic peace has focused not on whether, but on why, democracies do not go to war with one another./lbruce buena de mesquita, james d. morrow, randolph m. siverson, and alistair smith 21 (1999, 791) declare that ithe empirical evidence for this claim is quite strong." while they emphasize the claim of kant and doyle that domes­ tic political institutions matter in foreign policy choice (deciding whether to go to war, for example), they reject, along with normative explana­ tions, those institutional explanations that rely on the public's restraint of political leaders in matters of war and peace. their alternative expla­ nation, based on a realism grounded in game theory, portrays political leaders who respond to the institutional incentives of liberal democra­ cies much like the "intelligent devils" in kant's perpetual peace (kant 1957, 3d, aa 366). with their hold on power tied to public approval through elections, such leaders choose only wars they can win, and they make an all-out effort to do so. since democratic leaders can attribute this quality to their counterparts in other liberal democracies, they are less likely to bear the expense and risk of going to war with each other. this latter approach to the question of the democratic peace is consis­ tent with kant's. although the reluctance of democratic states to war with one another is based upon "prudent diplomacy," the end of peace is achieved in its ideal form. the institutional arrangements of liberal democracies make them better suited than non-democratic states to peace­ ful international relations. they are also more suited to global trade and intercourse than arc non democratic states. finally, their internal com­ mitment to a constitution that promotes individual freedom and equa]­ ity addresses kant's first definitive article. kant would undoubtedly be gratified to know that modern political science has had such confidence in its empirical verification of his thesis. yet, he would also warn that this affirmation should not be allowed to feed an idealism that might be inclined to advocate democratization with­ out concern for the dangers cited by mansfield and snyder (1995). in­ deed, the democratic peace may prove to be only a western phenom­ enon, as the personalities of emerging nations may not favor democracy. nor would kant dismiss layne's warning that friends may not always be friends. the categorical imperative's insjstence that we treat others always as ends and never as means only permits treating others as means. the v~ry existence of a state system consisting of independent nations that can be united, at best, within a federation is indicative of the poten­ tial for any of those states to become warriors against their confederates. for kant, the goal must always be to strengthen the prospects for a lasting peace. neither idealism nor realism must be allowed to dominate foreign policy. a careful, critical balance must be struck between them so as "to prevent precipitation which might injure the goal striven for" (kant 1957, 8, aa 347). in other words, modern states should not allow their confidence in the democratic peace to blind them to the verities of inter­ national relations. likcwisc, they must not allow their skepticism to deny 22 <.11111 ulluerminewhal conten,porary political science has affirmed. the ideological passions of idealism and the cold calculations of realism are the necessary means to the end of achieving peace. kant (1957, 46, aa 380) concludes, ii all politics must bend its knee before the nght." notes 1. citations of kant's work in this article include references to volume 8 of kant's gesam111eite schriftell (28 vols., berlin and leipzig: walter de gruyter & co., 1904ff.), the" academy edition," which i abbreviate as aa. 2. the classic statement of the distinction between "utopian" and "realist" theo­ ries of international politics is found in carr (1939). also see waltz (1959). doyle (19r:i) treats realism at length in the context of his discussion of the democratic peace. for a critical treatment of idealism as "wilsonianism," see layne (1994). 3. o'neill (1986, 524) observes that kant's "entire critical enterprise has a cer­ tain political character." also see arendt (1982), friedrich (1948), humphrey (1983), laursen (1986), mulholland (1987), oineil1 (1989), reiss (1970), riley (1983), and saner (1973). 4. citations of kant's critique of pure reason in this arbcle include references to both the a and b editions. 5. kant's passion for his subject and for the significance of the nature / free­ dom antinomy is movingly expressed in the following metaphor from the cri­ tique of practical reason: "two things fill the mind with ever new and increasing admiration and awe, the oftener and more steadily we reflect on them: the starry heavens above me and the moral law within me" (kant 1956, 166, aa 161). 6. for an interesting discussion attributing the "innkeeper's sign" metaphor to the work of kant's predecessor, leibniz, see riley (1983, 122). 7. for an extensive discussion of kant as contract theorist, see riley (1983). 8. this would be the political equivalent ot the metaphysical pnnclple that "an event which should follow upon an empty time, that is, a coming to be pre­ ceded by no state of things, is as little capable of being apprehended as empty time itself" (kant 1929, a 192, b237). 9. for a discussion, see suluvan (1989, 51-54). 10. the reference here to a "kingdom of ends" is intended to emphasize a critical understanding of kant's political theury. a!:> is ilue throughout his prac­ tical philosophy, kant wants human action directed toward attaining an ideal community. this, however, is the ideal for kant, and his perspective requires that it be carefully balanced a~aim;t whalls possible. there cannot be any com­ promise on what the goal of human action is to be, in this case perpetual peace among nations. yet, the idea of that goal must not become the controlling fact in efforts toward its realization. the categorical imperative insists only that the goal not be fundamentally contradicted and undermined. it fully recognizes that until the kingdom of ends is reached, there will be imperfections. see hill (1991, 73), o'neill (1989, 127-128), and sullivan (258-260). 11. doyle (1983) and dixon (1994) credit the correlates of war project with the establishment of the body of empirical research relating democracy and peace. see, [dl instance, smal1 and singer (1976, 1982). an excellent review of the major themes in this body of research may be found in chan (1997). 23 references arendt hannah. 1982. lectures 071 kant's political philosophy. chicago: univer­ sity of chicago press. j:)ueno de mesquita, bruce, james d. morrow, randolph m. siverson, and alistair smith. 1999. "an institutional explanation of the democratic peace."american political science review 93 (4): 791-807. carr, edward h. 1939. the twenty-years' crisis, 1919-1939: an introduction to the study of international relations. london: macmillan. chan, steve. 1997. "in search of democratic peace: problems and promise." mershon international studies reviez./} 41 (suppl. 1): 59-91. dixon, william j. 1994. "democracy and the peaceful settlement of interna­ tional conflict." american political science review 88 (1): 14-32. doyle, mkhael w. 1983. "kant, liberal legade~, dlld folei)sjl af{airs; pari i." philosophy and public affairs 12 (3): 205-254. farber, henry, and joanne gowa. 1995. "polities and peace." international secu­ rily 20 (2): 108-132. hill, thomas e. jr. 1991. autonomy and se~f respect. cambridge: cambridge university press. hinsley, f. h. 1963. power and the pursuit of peace. new york: cambridge uni­ versitv press. humphrey, ted. 1983. "introduction." in perpetual peace and other essays on politics, history, and morals, trans. and ed. ted humphrey. indianapolis: hackett publishing company. kant, immanuel. 1956 [1788]. critique of practical reason, trans. lewis white beck. indianapolis: babbs-merrill. __ . 1929 [1781 and 1787j. critique of pure reason, trans. norman kemp smith. london: macmillan. __ . 1959 [1785j. foundatiol1s of the mefaphysics ofmm-als, tr;:m~. :md pd. l.pwic; white beck. indianapolis: bobbs-merrill. __ . 1949 [1784]. "idea for a universal history with cosmopolitan intent." in, the philosophy of kant: kant's moral and political writings, trans. and ed. carl j. friedrich. new york: random house. __ . 1991 [1787]. metaphysics of morals, trans. and ed. mary gregor. cam­ bridge: cambridge university press. __ . 1957 [1795]. perpetual peace, trans. and ed. lewis white beck. indianapo­ lis: bobbs-merrill. laursen, john christian. 1986. "the subversive kant: the vocabulary of 'pub­ lic' and 'publicity' politica1 theory." political theory 14 (4): 584-603. layne, christopher. 1994. "kant or cant: the myth of the democratic peace." international security 19 (fall): 5-49. mansfield, edward d., and jack snyder. 1995. "democratization and the dan­ ger of war." international security 20 (1): 5-38. mulholland, leslie a. 1987. "kant on war and international justice." kal1t­ studien 78: 25-41. onora o'neill. 1989. constructions of reason: explorations of kant's practical phi­ losophy. cambridge: cambridge university press. 1986. "the public use of reason." political theory 14 (4): 523-551. 24 reiss, hans. 1970. "introduction." in knl1t'5 pulitical writings, trans. hans reiss. ne1v york: cambridge cniversity press. riley patrick 1983. kant's politicl7! philosophy. totowa, nj: rowman & littlefield. saner, hans. 1973. kii1lt's political thought: its origins and ol'veioplnellt, trans. e.b. chicago: university of chicago press. shea, christopher. 1996. "who wars with whom?" chronicle of higher educa­ tiol1, july 5. small, melvin, and j. david singer. 1982. resort to arms. beverly hills, ca: sage publications. __ . 1976. "the war-proneness of democratic regimes." jerusalem journal of international relations i: 50-69. sullivan, roger j. 1989. immanuel kal1t's moml thecwy. cambridge: cambridge university press. waltz, kenneth n. 1959. mall, the state, alld war. new york: columbia univer­ sity press. 25 wave or trend commonwealth, volume 21, issue 1 (2021). © 2021 the pennsylvania political science association. issn 2469-7672 (online). http://dx.doi.org/10.15367/com.v21i1.288. all rights reserved. wave or trend female candidates in pennsylvania elections in the trump era joshua j. weikert immaculata university the 2018 elections saw a record number of women running for elected office in the united states and in pennsylvania, but whether this represents a temporary wave or a lasting trend is not clear. using a combination of survey data; interviews of new candidates, elected officeholders, and party officials; and election data, this study examines the gender equality gains of 2018 in pennsylvania’s legislature in historical and political context. the data provide evidence that formal recruitment of female candidates was common (but not universal), that the number of women running for and winning office increased by historic (and not just significant) levels, and that a persistent and consistent motivation was discernible in large portions of the candidate body. survey measures of female candidate persistence—whether they plan to run again or recruit new candidates—also indicate that women intend to remain similarly active after the 2018 election cycle has come and gone. “in 1992, women’s time may have come. . . . it seems clear that 1992 has been a watershed of sorts and that the 1990s may well be the decade of the woman.” thus wrote delli carpini and williams in 1993 (32, 36), citing a combination of factors such as the end of the cold war and renewed salience for domestic issues in american politics, a greater 54 joshua j. weikert number of female candidates, new pro-women advocacy groups and pacs, recent supreme court decisions regarding abortion, and (most importantly, in the authors’ estimation) the anita hill testimony at the clarence thomas hearings before the senate judiciary committee. while 1992 did witness an increase in the number of women running for office, the results were less than encouraging in both the short and long term. most 1992 female candidacies were unsuccessful, and the increased number of women running for office reverted rapidly to its earlier mean (center for american women in politics 2019). these results show that the optimism of 1992 was, perhaps, misplaced, and that 1992 represented a wave, not a trend. in the wake of the 2018 elections, we find ourselves again witnessing what appears to be a “year of the woman.” this article seeks to test, in a limited fashion, whether 2018 is simply a rerun of the wave of 1992, rising and cresting before its ultimate recession, or the beginning of a new trend toward greater representation by virtue of a shift in gender-relevant incentives and political conditions. it is a basic, unassailable, empirical fact that women are underrepresented in american representative political bodies. the general belief in representational equality increasing as we get closer to the local level (“municipal advantage”) is itself sometimes described as being more intellectually fashionable than empirically demonstrable, with findings that female representation in government hovers at about 25%, regardless of level (tolley 2011, 573). indeed, at present the municipal advantage “trend” actually reverses at the local level. of the 1,365 cities and towns in the united states with a population greater than 30,000, only 21.8% have female mayors (center for american women in politics 2019). the pennsylvania general assembly is below average for women in state legislatures as a whole. what is, perhaps, most remarkable is that this below-average performance represents a substantial improvement over recent history: a record number of women sought office in the 2018 election cycle (caygle 2018), and the 2018 elections added substantial numbers of women to the pennsylvania house (a net of 9 gains, from 42 to 51) and nearly doubled the number of women in the senate (from 7 to 12). this study examines whether this is a unique event brought about by the current political climate or whether it represents a fundamental (and, potentially, lasting) change in electoral politics in the commonwealth. gender equality in the general assembly is not exactly the main focus here, though it represents a starting point. the questions addressed here are whether the gains that we have seen (or are likely to see) are sustainable, and whether these women running for office represent a statistical anomaly or the vanguard of a new more-gender-equal legislative bloc. in order to predict sustainable progress toward gender parity in representative bodies, we need to see more than wave or trend 55 just a historical-contextual increase in the percentage of women running for or are in office in one year or term. after all, as 1992 showed, political “year[s] of the woman” have been touted in the past only to be followed by a reversal or subsequent slowing of representational progress. is 2018 different, and if so, how is it different? there are three conditions that would be necessary (if not necessarily sufficient) to justify the belief that recent gains in representation are likely to be persistent: • substantively significant recruitment of female candidates by party leaders (“recruitment,” as defined in this article, refers to an approach by a party official or activist toward an individual to solicit candi dacy, per norris 2006) (see brown, this issue) • an increase in the number of women who run for office (whether recruited or self-selected) • an underlying and persistent motivating factor that incentivizes female candidacy. why these three conditions? the first two speak to the necessities of getting to the starting gate and running the race as general preconditions of winning seats and shifting the gender percentages in these bodies. if women are not being recruited to run, or if political, social, and personal conditions are not conducive to women deciding to seek office, then gains are not possible. a measurable and robust level of active, formal recruitment by a party or parties could signal an institutional commitment to greater gender balance, a perception that women are more “electable” and that such candidacies are more likely to be successful in the political climate, or both. at the same time, an increase in the number of women who are receptive to recruitment or who bypass it completely and decide to run without recruitment is a signal of greater overall female interest in candidacy and prospective erosion of the socalled “ambition gap.” the third condition speaks to the question of whether gains are sustainable, not merely possible: the circumstances that create a wave are not the same as an environmental shift that will reliably increase female candidacy or success, and it is the latter that is required if the wave is to become a trend. is 2018 the new 1992? as in 1992, more women sought office, but they experienced greater success and the motivation for their candidacies is, arguably, less tied to the specific contemporary events of recent years and more closely relatable to a persistent and future-oriented policy “threat.” the survey data generated by this study (as well as the electoral outcomes of 2018) suggest that, in fact, this may be the beginning of a trend rather than the end of a wave. 56 joshua j. weikert background: getting to the starting gate this is about the decision to run for office. whether a shift toward genderequal representation is a wave or a trend, the first stage is the same: an increase in the number of women seeking office. no one is elected who does not throw their hat into the ring—and historically comparatively few decide to throw their hat into the ring who are not recruited (norris 1997). this is especially true for women, who historically are less likely to consider themselves as prospective candidates (lawless and fox 2008). the “ambition gap” (itself a combination of a lack of recruitment, a lack of interest in campaigning, and self-perceived lack of electoral viability) increases the salience of the factors that go into candidate recruitment. recruitment is thus, in turn, central to our understanding of gender representation, at least in the absence of an external or contextual factor that may encourage more women to proactively seek public office. who gets to the starting gate? candidate recruitment is not an area that has been ignored or even necessarily neglected by our discipline: it only seems so in comparison to the avalanche of studies in related areas within the campaigns-and-elections subfield. there is valuable work illustrating models of candidate recruitment, the role of parties and partisanship in state/local and federal candidate recruitment, and prospective candidate selection criteria. with this context established, the rationale for the survey methodology employed becomes more intuitive: assessing the sustainability of the present level of political interest and activity among female office-seekers in pennsylvania requires more than the “who” answers provided by the election data. it also benefits substantially from an assessment of why those women reached the starting gate and whether they intend to assist others in reaching it and run more races themselves. the responses of the candidates offer unique insights into the process and environment described below. the party decides the general model of candidate recruitment (see norris 1997 for a detailed description) maps out a series of narrowing gates, beginning with formal legal, electoral, and party barriers to entry that limit the pool of prospective candidates. those who pass through this initial screening may then be subjected to a recruitment process in which both formal and informal rules and procedures further limit the supply of aspirants to office and which incorporates the demands of partisan gatekeepers. the interaction between gatekeepers and aspirants leads to an outcome in which either actor may play a veto role, though the existing literature places significant focus on the decision-making wave or trend 57 power of the partisan gatekeeper in addition to that of the aspirant (norris and lovenduski 1993; kunovich and paxton 2005; cheng and tavits 2011; see sweet-cushman 2018 for a pennsylvania sample). admittedly, the partisan “path to power” is much more tightly guarded in european and canadian politics, whereas in the united states virtually any individual can choose to run for public office, recruited or not. despite this relative lack of party power to formally block unrecruited candidates from the ballot in the united states, there is evidence to suggest that the affirmative element of recruitment—that it acts as a stimulus to candidacy among potential candidates—is a feature shared in the american system. ambition (or lack thereof) is a commonly described feature of the representational gender gap, but formal recruitment provides a bridge that has the potential to close that gap (preece, stoddard, and fisher 2016). the specific functioning of this general model is affected by structural factors, most notably the organizational model of the party in question (which is, naturally, also a function of the electoral system in question). recent studies note that even in relatively open electoral systems, a cartel model predominates. although formal barriers are set relatively low, the recruitment networks operated by partisan cartels—whether formal or informal—are largely closed (rallings et al. 2010; aldrich 2000). data suggest that most candidates are selected and approached to stand for office, rather than being evaluated following a proactive application for consideration by the prospective candidate in question (rallings et al. 2010, 370). this cartel model—featuring a professionalized political class of gatekeepers—results in candidates with a generally higher level of quality than those in systems with more “wildcat” or insurgent candidacies, but at the expense of a more-insular and less-diverse body of candidates (krouwel 2006, 250). partisanship and party competition are demonstrably related to the level of interest in candidate recruitment, if not the fundamental results (which candidates end up on the ballot). this has been disputed in terms of recruitment for local offices, with one theory positing that local politics is insulated from broader questions of partisan conflict (williams and adrian 1959), though the theory has not been consistently supported. however, at higher echelons of party office-seeking (national and prominent subnational offices such as governors), parties are intimately involved in the candidate recruitment process, especially when competition is pronounced. the motivation and rationale is perfectly summarized in sanbonmatsu: party scholars have long theorized that party competition is related to party organizational strength (e.g., beck 1974; crotty 1968; key 1949; patterson and caldeira 1984; schlesinger 1985). whether the parties 58 joshua j. weikert successfully recruit candidates helps determine whether voters are offered a choice between the two major parties on election day (e.g. downs 1957). because capturing office is arguably the main goal of the party (downs 1957; schlesinger 1975), fielding candidates is a necessary condition for parties to win elections. as seligman (1961, 77) summarizes: “the recruitment of political candidates is a basic function of political parties: a party that cannot attract and then nominate candidates surrenders its elemental opportunity for power.” (2006, 235) sanbonmatsu found little evidence of an explicit gender bias, but did note that party recruiters and gatekeepers tended to be men, which creates a like-type and in-network bias which almost certainly decreases the probability of recruiting women. contrary to “insulation” doctrine, we have evidence in the literature (as well as in this study) that local-level party organizations engage in recruiting at about the same intensity level as stateand national-level party organizations (kazee and thornbury 1990, 61). at a minimum, then, we should expect that any increase in female representation (itself being a product of increased representation in candidacy) to be at least somewhat reliant on an increase in female candidate recruitment (and, very probably, female recruiters). gender as a variable there is a heavy emphasis in the political science literature on the “gendered” nature of political candidate recruitment, examining whether screening based on gender is limiting diversity in politics (norris and lovenduski 1993). not all candidates are necessarily recruited, nor are all recruits necessarily candidates. in the absence of recruitment, though, gender-specific aversion to electoral competition (the aforementioned ambition gap) and the “care penalty” (sociological bias in the assigning of child and elder care duties which disproportionately overburdens women) are difficult to overcome, and recruitment increases by several times the probability of a woman to run for office (fox and lawless 2010; kanthak and woon 2015). thus, gender as an independent variable influencing the probability of recruitment is an important consideration in determining gender equality in representative bodies. there is consistent evidence that gender is a factor in recruitment both at the state and national levels (thomas 1994), and that the male advantage in recruitment exists whether it is the party or a nonpolitical actor doing the recruiting (lawless and fox 2008, 8). this lack of distinction between federal and state recruitment mirrors the overall lack of representation noted earlier at the federal and state levels and municipal offices. moreover, we wave or trend 59 see that this trend exists in both parties (freeman 2000), though it should be noted that recent history indicates an increasing asymmetry (center for american women in politics 2019). the republican party has become more maledominated in numbers of nominees and elected officials even as the democratic party becomes more representative (though still unequal), which reflects a growing gender gap between the parties more generally (rubin 2018). there is also evidence that partisanship plays a role in the success or failure of female recruitment, with democratic women being more responsive, on average, than republican women (sanbonmatsu 2002; preece, stoddard, and fisher 2016). the gender of the recruiter is also positively correlated with increases in the number of female candidates. women are more likely to recruit women (cheng and tavits 2011; crowder-meyer 2013) and are more likely to run when being recruited by women (sanbonmatsu 2006, 235). research also indicates that even when women are recruited for candidacy, it is more likely to be for a run as a “sacrificial lamb” in a long-shot district than as a competitive candidate, and that female incumbents are less “safe” than male incumbents (bernstein 1986; carroll 1994; thomas and bodet 2013). this kind of symbolic recruitment or nomination is counterproductive. not only does it not realistically increase the likelihood of gender equality in the legislatures in question, it creates an impression that female candidates are an electoral liability and not productive targets for candidate recruitment. this almost certainly has downstream effects when parties allocate electoral resources (funding, volunteers, staff, and so on). however, parties do not have exclusive control over the machinery of candidacy. women can proactively decide to run even if not recruited, and parties may also encounter shifts in public sentiment that incentivize the recruitment of female candidates. ultimately, gendered recruitment is a major factor in lack of representation. the probability of deciding to run for office (controlling for other factors like self-perceived electability, qualifications, time availability, and interest) nearly triples for a woman who is recruited to run for office compared to a woman who is not (fox and lawless 2010, 321). recruitment is not so much a nudge as a shove, and it is of sufficient magnitude to overcome much of the reluctance and “election aversion” demonstrated in the literature. “the trump effect” the conditions noted previously and their impact on the supply of female candidates (how many women want to run, how many women are recruited to run?) and the demand for female candidates (are voters more likely to vote for women?) are unlikely to change suddenly in the course of one or two election 60 joshua j. weikert cycles. what if a political proximate cause was sufficiently jarring to the system so that a larger shift was caused that provoked a new equilibrium, rather than just a shock followed by a reversion to the mean? this brings us to the election in 2016 of donald trump. by any standard this was a political shock. what remains to be seen is what effect it ultimately has on the universe of candidates and electoral victors. after all, the treatment of anita hill prompted an increase in the number of women seeking office in 1992, but the net result (in its own era and in comparison to the years since) shows that it did not set off a larger trend of women running for or winning public office (delli carpini and williams 1993; center for american women in politics 2019). indeed, in pennsylvania the 1992 “year of the woman” elections yielded an increase in the number of women in the house of representatives of only 3, from 21 to 24. prior to the 2018 elections, that number had increased to 41 in a generally steady rise with no particular external causes (pennsylvania center for women and politics 2019). would there be a “trump effect”? this was the question pursued by lawless and fox (2017) in their report of the same name. the overall argument for gendered effects from the election of donald trump is outlined by lawless and fox early on in their report (2017, 1–2): the policy agenda proposed during the 2016 campaign, sexist statements by trump the candidate, and president trump’s personal history with women (which includes multiple accusations of sexual harassment or assault) combine to motivate political engagement among women who would otherwise be unlikely to participate. it is not necessarily the case that it is a gender exclusive effect—trump undoubtedly provoked reactions from those of both genders in both parties—but the survey data in lawless and fox show that women had a stronger reaction in terms of both interest and activity. they found that respondents to their survey were much more likely to take political action but were only slightly more likely to consider running for office. lawless and fox were cautiously pessimistic on the question of a “trump effect” resulting in more female candidates: “on balance, the evidence suggests that very few women will emerge from the overall pool of potential candidates” (2017, 12). research questions and methodology thus, we return to the three conditions posited earlier. when we look at the 2018 election, do we see: • substantively significant recruitment of female candidates by party leaders? wave or trend 61 • an increase in the number of women who decide to run for office (whether recruited or self-selected)? • an underlying and persistent motivating factor that incentivizes female candidacy? lawless and fox (2017) apparently thought that we were unlikely to see these three things. however, such questions can now be answered empirically, and those answers can inform our assessment of whether a trend toward greater participation by women in the electoral process as candidates exists and is likely to continue and accelerate. evaluating these questions can (additionally and conveniently) now be done in light of the results of the 2018 general election. a high rate of success among the women who ran for office in 2018 has the potential to activate the advantages of incumbency, protecting both the absolute gains made in gender equity in elected offices in the state as well as preserving the trend of greater female participation as candidates. even absent that effect, though, there may still be reason to believe that a much more gender-equitable political recruiting environment will persist. if female candidates report that they are likely to run in future cycles regardless of outcome, that they plan to recruit other women to run, and if party leaders indicate a greater desire for female candidates, then we may reasonably conclude that this is more a trend than an anomaly. discerning motivation is a substantial challenge in social science research. since the present and future motivations of the units of analysis in this case (the candidates themselves) are central to addressing the research questions posed earlier, a survey of those candidates that allows for the direct and indirect assessment of those motivations is indicated. clearly, any evaluation of potential incumbency advantage accrual also requires that we consider the election record as well. as a result, this research uses three bodies of data: pre-election surveys of female candidates, post-election follow-up with a portion of those survey respondents, and the results of the 2018 pennsylvania elections. election data were retrieved from the pennsylvania department of state election results website (https://electionreturns.pa.gov/). survey data were generated by first compiling a list of all candidates for the pennsylvania general assembly, both the house of representatives and the senate. that list was then sorted by gender of the candidate and a list of female candidates was created. finally, the list was filtered to remove incumbent candidates who were running unopposed in the general election under the conclusion that their reported motivations could be qualitatively skewed by their lack of opposition and they have a fairly obvious answer to the question “why are you running 62 joshua j. weikert in this particular election cycle?” two were removed who, though on the ballot, had no published contact information or website; seven were added who were federal house of representatives candidates. the resulting population comprised 119 names. each prospective respondent was individually emailed approximately one month prior to election day from an academic e-mail address. a follow-up group e-mail was sent to all prospective respondents two weeks later. the survey itself comprised 16 questions. fifteen were closed-ended questions collecting demographic information (gender, age), political information (party, office sought, number of previous candidacies or elections), and questions regarding recruitment and motivation (intention to run again, intention to recruit others to run). one question was open-ended, asking, “in your own words, what was the single greatest motivation in reaching your decision to run for office in this election cycle (or the most recent in which you were a candidate)?” finally, the respondent was asked if she would be willing to have the researcher contact her with some follow-up questions. such a format would allow for longer responses that might shed additional light on the responses. those who indicated a willingness to be contacted for follow-up were contacted after the election by the method provided (e-mail or phone), and asked for additional thoughts or details on their “motivation” responses (why will/ won’t you run again after your win/loss, why will/won’t you be recruiting, any additional details/thoughts on the “why did you run” open-ended response?). analysis in total, 29 individuals responded to the survey. of those 29, 19 consented to be contacted for follow-up and clarification. the overwhelming majority of respondents were candidates for the pennsylvania house of representatives (26/29), which is consistent with the fact that the target population itself was roughly three-quarters candidates for the house. the respondents were predominately democrats (n = 23, slightly overrepresented), with republicans (n = 4) being underrepresented and independents (n = 2) being overrepresented. some level of self-selection bias was inevitable, but the characteristics of the group are not especially skewed, with one exception: respondents were overwhelmingly first-time candidates rather than experienced campaigners. of the 29, only 1 was an incumbent in the office she was seeking, and 22 of the respondents were in their first campaign. this, however, is a feature rather than a bug given the questions under consideration, many of which seek to examine what (if anything) has changed since november 2016 and whether those changes are lasting or ephemeral. wave or trend 63 recruitment beginning with the recruitment questions, exactly half of the respondents report being recruited to run for office, half chose to run for themselves, and three did not respond. the question was framed in a generic form (“were you recruited to run for office?”). “encouragement” by friends and family was not explicitly considered “recruitment” for the purposes of this study (though in some surveys in the literature the question includes this kind of solicited response), but an open response “other” option was included in the question asking for the identity or identities of those doing the recruiting, so respondents were able to self-report the encouragement of informal actors/family members as recruitment if inclined to do so. respondents were then asked who recruited them and they could select as many as applied between several political and nonpolitical actors (and the aforementioned “other”). ten indicated recruitment by one or more political actors (a party official or elected officeholder), while three indicated recruitment by a private citizen or group. the reported rate of recruitment seems low given the power of recruitment as a predictor of candidacy found in the literature, but the wording of the question (“were you recruited”) may have encouraged respondents to think in terms of formal recruitment only, even though it was not explicitly framed as such. the reported positions of those doing the recruiting (by far the most common recruiters were party officials rather than elected officials or private citizens) does seem consistent with the party cartel model discussed earlier, and with the conclusion that respondents themselves were focused on “formal” conceptions of recruitment. at the same time it is possible that self-reporting (as in this survey) is a less-reliable means of measuring recruitment; research in which there is a researcher-defined recruitment as a treatment/independent variable necessarily means that every subsequent “effective” recruitment is captured in the data. in follow-up interviews, the “unrecruited” did tend to indicate that they were encouraged to run by those within the party. just more than half of interviewees who had previously stated they were not recruited stated in their interviews that they were at a later point encouraged to run by party leaders. their negative responses in the initial survey were based on the fact that they had taken it upon themselves initially to attend a political or governmental meeting, and subsequently chose to run, often with a nudge from the party or elected officials with whom they were interacting. thus, the “procedural cartel” argument still appears to hold water, at least in the sense that the party was still a factor in smoothing the path to candidacy for most of the respondents. the most common comment in the follow-up interviews with regard to 64 joshua j. weikert recruitment was that the party was seen as a tool by all of the candidates—it provided a checklist and a path to beginning one’s candidacy. it was not, however, generally trusted or seen as particularly supportive once the campaigns began. as one interviewee put it, “they want you to run because they have a harder time than you’d think getting candidates, but once you’re in, they tend to leave you alone. someone told me, ‘don’t expect anything from the party, and you’ll never be disappointed.’ i think that’s about right.” whether rates of recruitment are relatively higher than in past election cycles is not measured by the data, but in any case the purpose of the questions was to demonstrate that female candidate recruitment is both robust (among respondents, most indicate some level of formal or informal recruitment) and can contribute to an explanation for increases in the overall number of women running. both conditions appear to be met by the data generated in the survey, though naturally this inference should be approached with appropriate skepticism given the sample size and the self-selection of said sample. motivation the open-ended “motivation” question elicited a fairly narrow set of responses. these were loosely categorized into four groups (presented here alphabetically): • democracy: responses that mention systemic concerns such as a lack of electoral competition or partisan tribalism, or system-benefitting virtues like public service or civic duty • policy: responses that identify one or more specific policy areas or • responses that specifically mention the election of donald trump as president in 2016 • responses that indicate disagreement, broadly, with the ideology or values of the incumbent officeholder or party outcomes “trump”: values: of these five, democracy was cited most often (9 mentions), followed by values (6 mentions) and policy (5 mentions). two respondents explicitly tied their candidacy to the election of president trump. in follow-up interviews, democrats unanimously mentioned the republican party by name as a motivating factor, regardless of whether their concerns were based on policy, values, or democratic values. interestingly, only half mentioned president trump, and all but one of those did so in the context that the “problem is bigger than trump.” this was a view shared by those who wave or trend 65 did not mention trump on their own. when those who had not mentioned trump were prompted with his name, they shared some variation on this comment, made by one respondent: “the republicans are trump now. who’s left that isn’t?” the three republican respondents who answered the question did not share those motivations; all discussed education or a policy related to it (property tax reform, state budget funding formulas). observed partisan differences in candidate motivations (even given the extremely small sample size) are consistent with other findings related to candidate recruitment, cited earlier (norris and lovenduski 1993; kunovich and paxton 2005; cheng and tavits 2011). in this case, the arrangement of power in harrisburg would be a logical explanation for the difference. republicans control both chambers of the general assembly, and democrats would not reasonably expect to be in a majority in the upcoming election. partisans of the in-power party have more incentive to think of office-seeking in terms of particular policymaking rather than as an act of resistance to broader political trends. it is not inconceivable that intraparty tension within the republican party could motivate candidacy, but such a motivation is not in evidence in these survey results. one item of particular note emerged when comparing motivation across other subsets within the sample: among those who were not recruited, values was the most common motivation cited. in fact, none of those whose responses were sorted into the values category were also in the “recruited” camp. persistence respondents were asked to provide answers on a scale of 1–5 (1 being “definitely yes” and 5 being “definitely no”) on three measures of political “persistence,” as a way to assess whether their involvement was likely to continue after election day. two questions addressed the likelihood of running for election/reelection to office in the future: one question measured likelihood in the event of victory, the other in the event of a loss. the third question asked whether, regardless of the election outcome, the respondent planned to recruit others to run for office. in the event of an electoral victory, most indicated they planned to run for reelection or election to another office. the modal average was “probably yes,” and 14 (roughly 58%) selected either “probably yes” or “definitely yes.” only four (17%) selected “probably not,” and none selected “definitely not.” the mean numerical average of the responses was 2.46, indicating a general (though not overwhelming) level of interest in running for reelection. in follow-up interviews, all who won indicated they would run for reelection. 66 joshua j. weikert one, who responded “probably yes” on the survey, said that she did so because she didn’t want to “tempt fate” by answering “definitely yes.” asked to picture an electoral loss, a substantial number (n = 10) still indicated they would probably or definitely run again, while five claimed “definitely not.” the numerical mean, though, does not shift excessively, landing at 3.04. this indicates only a very slight aversion toward a future run. in followup interviews (post-election), even that slight aversion seemed muted. in the words of one respondent who said she would “definitely not” run again if she lost, “now that the campaign is over, i miss it. i miss seeing the people i was campaigning with [volunteers and other candidates], i miss walking and knocking. even though i lost, i’m almost positive i’ll run again.” this is, it seems, simply harder to contemplate in the midst of a campaign. it’s possible that the self-reported drop in likelihood to run again in the event of a loss is a bit like asking a marathoner late in a race whether they’ll ever run a second marathon. the likelihood of future recruitment question suggests that regardless of interest in running in a future election, recruiting is very likely to be part of their political activities moving forward. two-thirds indicated they would “definitely” recruit and encourage others to run for office, and no respondents selected “probably” or “definitely” not. these responses, taken in light of the findings already present in the literature, suggest that future candidate recruitment in pennsylvania will include more women as recruiters, and subsequently will potentially yield more female recruits. candidacies and electoral results the pennsylvania department of state and the pennsylvania center for women and politics provide the data needed to compare the recently completed election cycle to the 2016 cycle and the longer historical trends. given the focus here on effects of the 2016 election and their likely future impact, an explicit comparison of the gender composition of the ballot and results (for the pennsylvania house and senate) is indicated. the 2018 general election ballot saw many more women than the 2016 ballot. across major and minor parties (and independent candidacies), there was an 80% increase in the number of female candidates in 2018 (106 candidates) compared to 2016 (59 candidates). it should be noted that although minor party candidates and independents are included in these counts, in neither year did they constitute a large number of the total candidacies. the results of the 2018 election also demonstrate that female candidates performed well overall. fifty-two women won their races for the house of wave or trend 67 representatives, only 34 of whom were incumbents. in absolute terms, this was the single largest increase in the number of women in the house in its history (nine more women are serving in the new house compared to 2016). it is also the second-largest increase in growth year-over-year by percentage, beaten only by 1954 when the number of women jumped from five to eleven (though the paucity of women in the house in 1952 clearly made doubling their number a much simpler statistical feat). in the senate, 2018 represents both the single largest gain in seats held by women and the biggest gain yearover-year. both numbers either beat (in the house) or tie (in the senate) their previous “best” in terms of gender representation, and the general assembly is now more than 25% female for the first time in its history (pennsylvania center for women and politics 2019). discussion to reiterate, making the case that we are seeing something different that has the potential to generate something like gender equality in representative political institutions in pennsylvania would likely require one or more of the following to be true: women being recruited for office, an increase in the number of women running for office (whether recruited or not), and some new and persistent motivating factor in the american political ecosystem. the data demonstrate support for at least two of these (and possibly three). formal v. informal recruitment and gender the respondents to the survey indicated that formal recruitment was certainly not atypical in their cases, but neither was it universal. the followup interviews still suggest that political recruitment was a common feature, even if it did initially involve potential female candidates “presenting themselves at the door” by first becoming more affirmatively politically active before being recruited. “the party decides” might be an overstatement, but it is obviously still a prominent feature of the candidacy process. the party appears to be engaging in a form of “convenience recruitment”: selecting candidates from those who are more visible on the political activist stage and may be of either gender, rather than from the typical networks of otherwiseprominent and powerful people who, due to patriarchal advantage, are more likely to be men. ethnographic analysis of the candidate recruitment process (in at least one participant-observer experience) followed a similar path (weikert 2019), coming after an initial proactive contact of the local party committee. 68 joshua j. weikert there is evidence, too, that the parties currently view female candidates favorably and are more likely to target them for recruitment in the future. one female party official tasked with recruiting candidates for the last two election cycles and interviewed for an earlier study (weikert 2019) lamented of a prospective candidate, “the only thing that would make him better is if he were a woman.” though anecdotal and party specific, that the sentence was uttered unprompted demonstrates that there is a perception that women, far from having to overcome being a risky choice for the ticket (now-inaccurate conventional “wisdom”), may be electorally advantageous in the modern political climate. importantly, this is from the perspective of someone doing the recruiting for a major political party. “a lot of women running” contrary to the prediction of lawless and fox, their assessment in the trump effect that “on balance, the evidence suggests that very few women will emerge from the overall pool of potential candidates” (2010, 12) was understandable but demonstrably incorrect in pennsylvania. their contention that high levels of interest would not likely yield a significant increase in female candidacies was consistent with historical cases, but did not bear out in this case. one of the survey respondents said in her interview, “it sure does seem like there are a lot of women running.” indeed, there were. an 80% increase in the number of female candidacies does more than suggest that more women emerged from the overall pool of potential candidates—it shouts it. a few caveats are perfectly appropriate here, though. first, this study only examined this phenomenon in one state—pennsylvania—and while reports broadly noted an increase in the number of women running in 2018, it is entirely possible that other states did not see such a dramatic increase. second, lawless and fox’s statement may have suffered from simply misjudging who is counted in the “overall pool of potential candidates.” politically jolted citizens may very well find themselves engaging with the political system. finding that the barriers to entry for candidacy are not as high as they anticipated, they found themselves in the pool of potential candidates more readily and quickly than our discipline would expect. last, this phenomenon was not observed broadly, but specifically: the increase in the number of female candidacies can be clearly tied to increases in the number of democrats and, particularly, democratic women on the ballot. as democrats sought to compete in a larger number of races than they had in recent elections, it bears out logically and statistically that the partisan gender gap favoring women as candidates in the democratic party resulted in more wave or trend 69 women running in 2018. thus, lawless and fox may have been correct in general, but were made incorrect by virtue of the fact that they did not account for a more wide-ranging electoral competition. still, whatever the conditions and context, the outright surge of female candidacies (and their subsequent electoral success) cannot be denied. motivation and persistence a good circumstantial and qualitative case can be made that the motivation behind the surge of women on the ballot in 2018 is definable and persistent. where lawless and fox may have overstated the case in the trump effect is that there was not nearly as much focus on trump as we would expect. while trump’s election was obviously a startling event for democrats in general and perhaps democratic women in particular, that moment of reckoning prompted an evaluation of our political system as a whole—and by the candidates’ own reporting in this study it was the republican party rather than donald trump that animated their candidacies. we see evidence for this in the “smoking non-recruitment gun.” among the “unrecruited”—those who felt that they came to the system of their own volition rather than being drawn into it by active recruitment by political actors—there was a high incidence of noting a broad dissatisfaction with the governing republican party and its values and policy positions. this is important because in 2021 or 2025, president donald trump will become former president donald trump—but the republican party will remain. if republicanism comes to be considered synonymous with trumpism, then the departure of donald trump from the white house will not necessarily result in a sudden deflation in the motivation of democratic women to run for political office. if it is these unrecruited women who lawless and fox did not expect, and who account for the upswing in the number of women seeking office, then they are likely to continue to do so. this is all the more true if the democratic party increases its recruitment efforts among women, and still more true if the republican party—seeking to blunt the heuristic effects of female voters who may be more likely to vote for a female candidate—begin recruiting more women to run as well. the survey and interview results in this study also suggest that the women engaged in the 2018 election cycle are likely to persist. measures of persistence in this study—limited in sample size though they are—suggest that today’s female candidates will be tomorrow’s female candidates and that they plan to encourage others to join them. the question explicitly did not ask whether they planned to recruit other women to run, but we can reasonably conclude 70 joshua j. weikert that more women engaging in recruiting efforts will result in a greater degree of female representation. either they will do so in a gender-blind way (which will naturally tend toward gender equality on the ballot), or they will exhibit the gendered recruiting tendencies discussed earlier, with women being more likely to recruit women and for those recruiting efforts to be more successful than those of men recruiting women (sanbonmatsu 2006; cheng and tavits 2011; crowder-meyer 2013). in either case, the important question is not “who will they recruit?” but “will they be recruiting?” the answer appears to be yes. combined with the advantages of incumbency that will now also attach to the women elected in 2018, it is reasonable to conclude that this year’s election is more likely to represent an equilibrium-shifting event than an artifactual aberration. one final note on persistence. although not a central feature of this study (and based on an admittedly small sample), the data also suggest a partisan “persistence” gap. the republican respondents in the survey were far less committed to running in a future election—even in the event of an electoral victory—than the democrats. none of the four republican respondents indicated they would “definitely” run again even if they were to win, and sorting the responses by party also changes the “if you lose” persistence measure. looking only at democrats, a majority stated they would run again even if they lost in 2018. the implications of such a partisan persistence gap are unclear, but it does seem to buttress the idea that female democrats (which represent most of the female candidates) view the political context as less of a short-term shock and more of a long-term problem. such a viewpoint lends weight to the conclusion that recent gains are sustainable as part of a broader trend of increased female participation as candidates for elected office. conclusion: year(s) of the woman the evidence that 1992 represented a watershed political moment and a realigning election year in the wake of the anita hill testimony in front of the senate judiciary committee was always thin, even in the context of just that one election year, much less as a signal of changes to come. in comparison, 2018 has the genuine makings of the start of a turned tide, not a temporary wave (though even if just a wave it was still impressive in its magnitude). in 1992, the number of women in the entire general assembly increased by only 3, from 25 to 28. in 2018, that number increased by 12, from 51 to 63. the comparatively larger gains in 2018 (both in absolute and percentage terms) show that 2018 far outperformed 1992 even as a “wave” year for women. the survey data collected here suggests that this was not simply a wave, however. wave or trend 71 the three variables noted throughout—recruitment, candidacy, and persistent motivation—all receive support from the data developed and collected. women in pennsylvania had both the motive and the opportunity to achieve historic gains in their level of representation in the general assembly, and they took advantage of both. nor was this limited solely to the state capital— pennsylvania sent four women to the house of representatives in washington as part of what had been an all-male delegation. what remains to be seen is whether these gains will be held and expanded on. the combination of recruitment incentive, active pursuit of candidacy, incumbency advantage, and persistent motivation have the potential to bring women farther along the path to representational equality than pennsylvanians have ever seen and many might never have expected, but ultimately this study is not about whether this outcome will ever be reached. it is about whether the pace at which that outcome could be reached has experienced a sustainable increase. the data herein suggest that it has. note acknowledgment: the author wishes to thank the candidates, elected officials, and political and party volunteers who took time during and after a busy election season to provide their invaluable insights and opinions. any errors in the ensuing analysis are mine alone. references aldrich, john h. 2000. “southern parties in the state and nation.” journal of politics 62 (august): 643–670. bernstein, robert. 1986. “why are there so few women in the house?” western political quarterly 39 (march): 155–164. carroll, susan j. 1994. women as candidates in american politics. bloomington: indiana university press. caygle, heather. 2018. “record-breaking number of women run for office.” politico, march 8. available at https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/08/women-rule -midterms-443267. center for american women in politics. 2019. women in elective office 2019. available at: http://www.cawp.rutgers.edu/women-elective-office-2019. accessed january 13, 2019. cheng, christine, and margit tavits. 2011. “informal influences in selecting female political candidates.” political research quarterly 64 (june): 460–471. crowder-meyer, melody. 2013. “gendered recruitment without trying: how local party recruiters affect women’s representation.” politics & gender 9 (4): 390–413. delli carpini, michael x., and bruce a. williams. 1993. “the year of the woman? candidates, votes and the 1992 elections.” political science quarterly 108 (spring): 29–36. fox, richard l., and jennifer l. lawless. 2010. “if only they’d ask: gender, recruitment, and political ambition.” journal of politics 72 (april): 310–326. freeman, jo. 2000. a room at a time: how women entered party politics. lanham, ma: rowman and littlefield. 72 joshua j. weikert kanthak, kristin, and jonathan woon. 2015. “women don’t run? election aversion and candidate entry.” american journal of political science 59 (july): 595–612. kazee, thomas a., and mary c. thornberry. 1990. “where’s the party? congressional candidate recruitment and american party organizations.” political research quarterly 43 (march): 61–80. krouwel, andre. 2006. “party models.” in handbook of party politics, eds. richard s. katz and william crotty. london: sage. 249–269. kunovich, sheri, and pamela paxton. 2005. “pathways to power: the role of political parties in women’s national political representation.” american journal of sociology 111 (september): 505–552. lawless, jennifer l., and richard l. fox. 2008. “why are women still not running for political office?” issues in governance studies, brookings institute 16 (may): 1–20. ———. 2017. the trump effect: results from a politico/american university/loyola marymount university survey of potential candidates. washington, dc: women in politics institute. norris, pippa. 1997. passages to power: legislative recruitment in advanced democracies. cambridge, uk: cambridge university press. ———. 2006. “recruitment.” in handbook of party politics, eds. richard s. katz and william crotty. london: sage. 89–108. norris, pippa, and joni lovenduski. 1993. “‘if only more candidates came forward’: supply-side equations of candidate selection in britain.” british journal of political science 23 (july): 373–408. pennsylvania center for women and politics. 2019. fast facts. available at https://www .chatham.edu/pcwp/research/fastfacts.cfm#legislature. accessed january 13, 2019. preece, jessica robinson, olga bogach stoddard, and rachel fisher. 2016. “run, jane, run! gendered responses to political party recruitment.” political behavior 38 (september): 561–577. rallings, colin, michael thrasher, galina borisyuk, and mary shears. 2010. “parties, recruitment and modernisation: evidence from local election candidates.” local government studies 36 (3): 361–379. rubin, jennifer. 2018. “republicans widen the gender gap, to democrats’ benefit.” washington post, october 2. sanbonmatsu, kira. 2002. “political parties and the recruitment of women to state legislatures.” journal of politics 64 (august): 791–809. ———. 2006. “the legislative party and candidate recruitment in the american states.” party politics 12 (march): 233–256. sweet-cushman, jennie. 2018. “where does the pipeline get leaky? the progressive ambition of school board members and personal and political network recruitment.” politics, groups and identities, doi: 10.1080/21565503.2018.1541417. thomas, melanee, and marc andre bodet. 2013. “sacrificial lambs, women candidates, and district competitiveness in canada.” electoral studies 32 (march): 153–166. thomas, sue. 1994. how women legislate. new york: oxford university press. tolley, erin. 2011. “do women ‘do better’ in municipal politics? electoral representation across three levels of government.” canadian journal of political science 44 (september): 573–594. weikert, joshua j. 2019. “inside two parties: ethnographic analysis of partisan differences in political candidate recruitment.” sage research methods cases. doi:10.4135/9781526473004. wave or trend 73 williams, oliver p., and charles r. adrian. 1959. “the insulation of local politics under the nonpartisan ballot.” american political science review 53 (december): 1052– 1063. joshua j. weikert is assistant professor of politics and chair of the department of civic engagement at immaculata university, as well as a senior policy advisor to rep. joseph webster, pennsylvania house of representatives. his published research focuses on electoral behavior and political communication and he has published several op-eds on political campaigns and elections. before joining the faculty at immaculata he served as a visiting assistant professor and adjunct professor at villanova university, west chester university, albright college, and ursinus college. structure bookmarks background: getting to the starting gate the party decides research questions and methodology analysis discussion conclusion: year(s) of the woman note references microsoft word journal commonwealth 2007 final 0307.doc 45 what’s local about local television news? an analysis of 2004 election coverage by philadelphia’s local television stations matthew hale seton hall university because capturing and analyzing local television news broadcasts is difficult, most research on campaign coverage by local television stations centers on a single candidate race and a limited number of news broadcasts. this article expands existing research by examining all prime time election coverage by philadelphia’s four network affiliates in the final 30 days of the 2004 campaign. these stations virtually abandoned coverage of local and statewide races in favor of the presidential contest. most coverage focused on campaign strategy rather than issues, but there is little evidence of direct bias favoring either democrats or republicans. although stations generally ignored nonpresidential elections, they gave a fair amount of coverage to the mechanics of voting, which may provide voters with valuable locally based election information. political communication scholars are divided, often bitterly, over the potential effects of television news on citizen engagement, knowledge, turnout, and voting behavior. for many years, the groundbreaking work of patterson and mcclure (1976) held sway and the conventional wisdom was that television news had virtually no effect on voters. more recently, the strength of this minimal affects position has declined and a host of empirical studies have suggested that the media can influence citizen attitudes and behavior (ansolabehere and iyengar, 1995; entman, 1992; finkel and geer 1998; gilliam and iyengar, 2000; goldstein and freedman 2002; graber 1997 and 2001; iyengar and kinder 1987; just, crigler, alger, cook, kern, and west 1996; shaw 1999; valentino 1999; wattenberg and brians 1999). much of this work is based on studies of network news broadcasts. this focus is primarily one of expedience. since network news airs once a night and can be captured in any part of the country, it is simply easier for scholars to analyze network news instead of local tv news. 46 scholars are beginning to recognize the importance of local tv news. for example, althaus, nardulli, and shaw (2002, 2) bluntly state, “studies of the elite national news media ignore the simple fact that local news broadcasts are now the average citizen’s primary source of information about presidential campaigns.” this contention is supported by several surveys from the pew center indicating the centrality of local news as a trusted information source.1 snider (2000) highlights the importance of local news with his contention that an archive of local news would be a public good and, as such, congress should mandate the creation of a national archive of local news programs similar to vanderbilt university’s archive of national news programs. since congress has not done so, researchers interested in local news and campaigns are forced to limit what local news content they capture and analyze. this happens in at least three ways. first, researchers concentrate on a single, often presidential, election (bartels 1988; beck, dalton, greene, and huckfeldt 2002; finkel and geer 1998; iyengar and kinder 1987; shaw 1999, just et al. 1996). second, the few researchers (carter, fico, and mccabe, 2002; just et al. 1999) who attempt to examine multiple races are forced to limit their research to single news broadcasts (e.g. the 5:00 p.m. broadcast but not the 11:00 p.m. broadcast). third, researchers completely ignore stories that focus on the process of the election (e.g. voter registration deadlines and locations of polling places). these “voter information” stories are comparatively prevalent on local news broadcasts. all these strategies present methodological problems. over 40 years ago, bernard cohen argued that the media do not tell us what to think; they tell us what to think about. following cohen, it is reasonable to suggest that comparative balance or imbalance in the quantity of coverage about different elections signals voters about the comparative worth of those elections. for example, a lack of coverage about one u.s. house race tells voters that they do not need to think about it, just as blanket coverage of another u.s. house race signals voters to pay attention to this one. research focusing on a single race cannot speak to this fundamental point. in addition, focusing on a single race assumes that the qualitative aspects of news coverage, such as bias, are uniform across elections. yet there is no reason to believe that a television 47 news organization will act with this type of consistency. it is clearly possible that a local television station may favor a democrat in a u.s. senate race and favor a republican in the presidential race. again, research focusing on a single race can not address this point. it is not surprising that research on local television news centers on candidates; that is, after all, what research on network news does. this focus, however, ignores stories about the process and mechanics of the election itself, stories that are in fact more likely to occur on local television stations than on network news (kaplan, goldstein, and hale 2004). in addition to being more prevalent on local news than national news, these “voter information” stories often provide voters with information directly relevant to the situation they will face when they go to the polls. for example, local television stations can report on local voter registration deadlines, polling place locations, and the time and place of local events related to the upcoming election—stories that network news does not report. in addition, local news can report on specific and local instances of voting irregularities or potential difficulties in the local voting process in a way than network news cannot. as a result, there is no reason to believe that these voter information stories are irrelevant and without influence on voters’ perceptions of the election. in fact, it seems reasonable to suggest that a story highlighting a local nonpartisan voter information forum might leave voters with a generally positive view of the election and their ability to participate in it. conversely, a story highlighting acrimonious lawsuits over the implementation of electronic voting machines might leave voters with a more negative impression. just as the balance in the quantity of coverage about individual elections may signal voters about which elections are important, the balance in noncandidate stories may help signal voters about the value of participating in the election at all. the first goal of this article is to provide a more complete picture of election news coverage by examining news coverage of all races and all election related stories across multiple news broadcasts. the key research questions include: what is the quantitative balance of coverage across multiple races? are there qualitative differences in coverage of different races? what types of noncandidate election stories exist, and how might these stories influence voter’s opinions of the election? 48 obviously, the answers to these questions are largely descriptive. even so, they are important because they further our understanding of how voters within a media market actually experience election news coverage. for example, it seems reasonable to suggest that voters watch entire (if not multiple) newscasts every night and not (as researchers generally do) single stories about one election. as a result, voters experience one part of election coverage (e.g. presidential election stories) not in a vacuum but in connection with other parts of election coverage (e.g. stories about other races and about the electoral process generally). by describing how the different “parts” of an election are covered in relation to each other, we are better able to understand how voters experience (and perhaps understand) both the parts of an election and the election as a whole. the philadelphia media market: size and competition the philadelphia media market provides an interesting case study because in 2004 it was an example of a large media market with many competitive elections. this combination is significant because the size of the philadelphia market would suggest that presidential coverage would be much more prevalent than coverage of local elections. yet, the number of competitive down-ballot races in the philadelphia market would suggest that coverage between presidential and nonpresidential elections would be more balanced. examining election coverage in philadelphia helps inform our understanding of the relationship between these two variables. the size of the philadelphia media market the philadelphia media market is the fourth largest media market in the country. it reaches across 18 counties and three states. eight of the 18 counties are in new jersey (atlantic, burlington, camden, cape may, cumberland, gloucester, mercer, and salem). eight of the counties are in pennsylvania (berks, bucks, chester, delaware, lehigh, montgomery, northampton, and philadelphia). two of the counties are in delaware (kent and new castle). because of its size and cross state reach, the tv stations in philadelphia generally have more elections to cover than almost any 49 market in the country.3 in addition to the 2004 presidential race, voters in the philadelphia dma participated in more than 155 nonpresidential races. these included one u.s. senate races, six other statewide offices, 15 congressional races, 19 state senate races, and 113 state assembly races.4 this total does not include the hundreds of local races for city councils, mayors, and law enforcement officers in the 18 counties. researchers have been unable to make comparisons between local news reports in multiple markets. nonetheless, it is reasonable to speculate that larger media markets may provide less coverage of local elections than do smaller markets inasmuch as the percentage of a station’s viewers that can vote in a particular race is higher in a small market than in a large market. however, ownership and operation of all the affiliate stations in large markets by the major media companies (abc, cbs, fox and nbc) may also contribute to a lack of coverage of local elections because reporters at these stations are more directly linked to, or perhaps identify more with, national journalists. consequently, coverage of the presidential race and perhaps the u.s. senate race can be expected to dominate election news coverage on philadelphia’s television stations. electoral competitiveness in philadelphia clearly market size is not the only factor in determining what gets covered. a second variable is the presence of competitive elections. philadelphia is an interesting case study in 2004 because in comparison to most places in the country, a number of races in the philadelphia area were thought to be competitive or at least interesting. pennsylvania was considered to be a crucial swing state in the presidential election, and towards the end of the election there was indication that new jersey too might be competitive in the presidential race. the pennsylvania senate race was characterized by the cook political report5 as “leaning republican,” indicating some degree of competitiveness. voters in the philadelphia dma cast ballots in six other statewide races.6 of these, four were open seat races, which are generally characterized as less certain than elections with incumbents. in addition, three of the 15 u.s. house races7 held in the dma were thought to be at least somewhat competitive.8 given that a total of just 24 u.s. house races were characterized as even marginally competitive in 2004,9 the 50 philadelphia dma accounted for 13% of all u.s. house races characterized as leaning democratic or republican in the country. while this may be a comment on the lack of competitiveness in u.s. house races in general, it does suggest that in comparison with other media markets, philadelphia has its share of interesting u.s. house races. given that local television station managers and news directors routinely argue that elections would receive more coverage if more of them were competitive, it would seem reasonable to expect that philadelphia might provide a significant amount of coverage to nonpresidential elections. in short, the philadelphia media market is interesting because we have two competing hypotheses about how the city’s stations might balance their election coverage between presidential and nonpresidential elections. discovering which one is correct is the second goal of this article. methodology this article is based on a larger study of 44 stations in 11 media markets2 conducted by the norman lear center at the university of southern california and the newslab at the university of wisconsin. while the 11 media markets in the full study were not randomly selected, they account for 23% of all television viewers in the country. in addition, the 11 markets are geographically diverse and somewhat politically diverse. there is also variation in the level of electoral competitiveness within the 11 markets at both the presidential and down-ballot levels. the full study examined over 8,000 hours of news coverage and almost 7,000 news stories, making it one of the largest studies of local television news ever conducted. the ability to capture and analyze election coverage across multiple races and broadcasts is made possible by the unique media capture and management system created at wisconsin’s newslab. the process is divided into four distinct phases: capture, clipping, coding, and archiving. in each market, computer servers capture entire news broadcasts and transmit the content electronically to the university of wisconsin. once they arrive in wisconsin, broadcasts are clipped into individual news stories and coded for primary focus (elections, crime, health, foreign policy, etc.). election stories are then sent to individual computer work stations for coding. highly 51 trained coders watch and code each election story directly on a computer screen. specially designed software prevents errors in logical consistency. for example, if a coder says the story concerns only a gubernatorial race but enters the name of a u.s. senate candidate into a soundbite field, the story is automatically returned to a supervisor to check and correct any errors. when coding is complete, the stories are automatically sent to a digital archive available at www.localnewsarchive.org. users of the archive can search the video database on a host of items including keywords, story subject, station, market, and date aired. this article is based on a detailed analysis of the 580 election news stories aired by the philadelphia affiliates of the four major networks (cbs, nbc, abc, and fox). as in the larger study, all stories aired during prime time (5:00 p.m. to 11:30 p.m.) between october 4 and november 1, 2004. all stories in philadelphia were examined by three trained coders. intercoder reliability was measured using cronbach’s alpha (cronbach 1951) and was greater than .83 on all but one variable; and in the case of primary story, focus was above .90. the one exception was the variable called the “average campaign manager score,” which is described in a later section. the initial reliability measure indicated an intercoder agreement of .77. although some scholars find this acceptable (nunnally 1978), other argue that intercoder agreement should be greater than .80 (krippendorff 1978, tinsley and weiss 2000). to err on the side of caution, a project supervisor reviewed all stories where the three coders were less than unanimous and made a final determination, thus insuring adequate reliability on all measures. basic descriptive elements of each story—such as date aired, station, and story length—are automatically determined during the clipping process described above, so reliability measures are not necessary on these variables. comparing philadelphia the first step is to compare the philadelphia media market with the 10 other markets in the larger lear center study. the results show in most respects that the stations in philadelphia covered the 2004 election somewhat differently than the other stations in the larger study. for example, the philadelphia stations covered the election a bit more frequently than did the other 10 markets. seven 52 out of 10 broadcasts captured in philadelphia contained at least one election related story compared with slightly more than six out of 10 in the other markets studied.10 one possible explanation for this difference is that stories in philadelphia were on average 13 seconds shorter than stories in the other markets. the philadelphia stations aired more stories about the presidential race and fewer stories about local races than did the other markets. in addition, philadelphia stations gave significantly more attention to campaign strategy and the “horserace” and less attention to campaign issues than did the other markets. the stories on philadelphia stations included a candidate soundbite somewhat less frequently than did the stations in the other markets, but the difference was not statistically significant. there was no difference between philadelphia and the other markets in the average length of a candidate soundbite. table 1 contains these results. table 1 overview of 2004 election coverage study sample (all newscasts at 5:00 p.m. and 11:30 p.m. aired between october 4 and november 1, 2004) 10 markets* philadelphia number of local television stations 40 4 total hours of news programming 8,070 596 total number of local news broadcasts 4,035 298 total number of campaign stories 6,441 580 53 *the 10 markets include new york, los angeles, dallas, miami, tampa, orlando, denver, seattle, des moines, and dayton (ohio) comparing elections: quantitative disparities in race coverage given the importance of the office and the overall competitiveness of the race, it is not surprising that presidential coverage trumped coverage of local and even statewide races in all 11 markets studied in 2004. that pennsylvania was considered a crucial swing state caused both presidential candidates to spend a great deal of time in the state, and specifically in philadelphia, so it is not surprising that the presidential race received a great deal of coverage by philadelphia’s stations. these facts, however, do not make the dominance of the presidential race in philadelphia any less striking, especially given the presence of other competitive races in the market. for example, not only did the philadelphia stations devote significantly more of their stories to the presidential race than did stations in the other 10 markets, but they also devoted significantly more of their election coverage to the presidential race than did stations in other presidential battleground states (dayton, ohio; des moines, iowa; and miami, orlando, and tampa in florida). presidential stories made up 59% of the stories in these five markets compared to 76% of the stories in philadelphia.11 overall, the philadelphia stations aired a total of just 30 stories focused on nonpresidential candidates. of these, 16 focused on the u.s. senate race,12 and just 11 stories focused exclusively on u.s. variables 10 markets* philadelphia t test percentage of broadcasts with at least one campaign story 63% 70% t= 2.45 (347), p=.014 average length of a campaign story 87 seconds 75 seconds t= 4.48 (702), p=.000 percentage of stories about the presidential race 60% 76% t= 8.59 (722), p=.000 54 house races.13 the remaining stories focusing on nonpresidential candidates included a single story about the attorney general race, one story about the delaware gubernatorial race, and one story featuring a state senate candidate who was only marginally related to the election. one way to put these results in perspective is to compare the total amount of news time captured with how much of it focused on these races. out of almost 600 hours of news time captured, a total of slightly more than 13 minutes of coverage focused on the u.s. senate race and just 12 and a half minutes focused on any u.s. house race. the total amount of air time devoted to all nonpresidential candidates was just 28 minutes and 24 seconds. in comparison, philadelphia’s stations devoted a total of nine hours and 45 minutes of election coverage to the presidential race. this means that presidential candidates received 95% of all the candidate centered air time on philadelphia’s stations. in addition, presidential candidates received 90% of all candidate soundbite time aired by philadelphia’s stations. while this is still dominant, it is slightly less than the overall percentage of air time devoted to presidential candidates, suggesting a slight tendency on the part of philadelphia’s stations to show nonpresidential candidates speaking more often than presidential candidates. even so, the difference in soundbite time remains staggering. presidential candidates were given a total of one hour and 47 seconds of speaking time, compared to a total of seven minutes and nine seconds of speaking time for all nonpresidential candidates. overall, these results suggest that a typical voter would have to be fairly vigilant to see, let alone learn, anything about a nonpresidential election by watching philadelphia’s local television news. clearly, one of the strongest signals sent to voters by philadelphia television stations was that the presidential election was the only thing that mattered, or to paraphrase cohen, the only candidates to “think about” were those running for president. table 2a contains these results. 55 table 2a quantity of presidential and nonpresidential coverage in philadelphia presidential election stories (n=440) nonpresidential election stories (n=30) quantity of coverage total air time 9 hours, 45 minutes 28 minutes, 24 seconds percentage of candidate centered air time 95% 5% candidate soundbites total soundbite time 1 hour, 47 seconds 7 minutes, 9 seconds percentage of all candidate speaking time 90% 10% average length of a candidate soundbite 12 seconds 11 seconds comparing elections: qualitative similarities in race coverage it is fairly clear from the previous section that philadelphia stations all but ignored nonpresidential races. the next section compares how the stations covered presidential and nonpresidential races. this is important in part because in our 11 market analysis we found that stories about local races were longer, contained longer soundbites, and were more likely to focus on issues than on stories about presidential candidates.14 given that many media reform advocates15 argue that longer news stories featuring candidates talking about issues are the qualitative improvements necessary in news coverage, it is reasonable to suggest that stories about nonpresidential races were qualitatively superior to stories about presidential races. in philadelphia the comparison is at best mixed. the average length of a presidential story in philadelphia was 80 seconds while the average length of a nonpresidential story was just 57 seconds. while this appears to be a large difference, it was not statistically significant (p=.060). the results, however, show no significant differences between philadelphia’s presidential and nonpresidential stories in terms of average soundbite length or percentage of stories 56 focusing on strategy or issues. these results, therefore, show that unlike other markets in the larger study, there is not a clear pattern of providing qualitatively superior coverage of nonpresidential elections in philadelphia. table 2b contains these results. table 2b “quality” of presidential and nonpresidential coverage in philadelphia “quality” of coverage presidential election stories (n=440) nonpresidential election stories (n=30) significance average length of a story 80 seconds 57 seconds t= 1.88 (468), p=.060 average length of a candidate soundbite 12 seconds 11 seconds t= 1.06(348), p=.287 percentage of stories about strategy or horserace 74% 70% t= .435 (468), p=.664 percentage of stories about issues 18% 23% t=.668 (468), p=.505 comparing candidates: visibility and treatment of the presidential candidates this section explores the data to see if there is an overall pattern of bias toward one party or individual candidate. we look at these bias questions from two perspectives: visibility and treatment of the candidates. these are explained below. before turning to the results, however, some clarifications are important. first, because the presidential race dominated coverage, the focus is on comparing the major presidential and vice presidential candidates. the results generally hold for the u.s. senate and all u.s. house races too. appendix a contains an overview of the results for these down-ballot races. second, the results do not include stories about third party presidential 57 candidate ralph nader because coverage of nader was almost nonexistent. appendix b contains comparisons between coverage of nader and his major party counterparts, and they show significant differences in how nader was covered by philadelphia stations. third, because the findings are remarkably consistent across individual stations, the results are presented at the market rather than the station level. appendix c contains the results for the individual stations. comparing candidates: visibility of candidates on the news the first set of measures focus on the visibility of each candidate on the news in comparison to his counterpart(s). the rationale for these measures is similar to one used with paid campaign advertising, namely more is better. if, for example, john kerry appears on the news much more often than george bush, voters, at the very least, receive more exposure to kerry than they do to bush. these “visibility” results are presented in two ways. first, table 3 reports the total amount of air time and soundbite time each candidate received over the 30 day study period. the results show very few differences between the major party candidates on these aggregated totals. for example, out of more than eight hours of coverage focused on the two presidential candidates, the difference in air time was less than five minutes. table 3a quantity of coverage by candidate candidate total number of stories featuring candidat e total time of stories total number of candidate soundbite s total amount of soundbite time george bush (r) 357 4 hrs, 13 mins 135 27 mins, 23 secs john kerry (d) 351 4 hrs, 18 mins 111 22 mins, 12 secs dick cheney (r) 60 28 mins 30 4 mins, 33 secs john edwards (d) 60 30 mins 31 6 mins, 15 secs 58 next, the aggregated results are broken down to the story level, and we calculate the average percentage of each story that was devoted to each candidate and the average number of seconds each candidate appears in a story. as shown in table 3b, there were no significant differences between major party candidates on either variable. table 3b comparing candidate visibility in stories average percentage of a story devoted to candidate n mean s d significance george bush 357 .53 .239 john kerry 351 .51 .238 t=1.35 (706), p=.177 dick cheney 60 .33 .235 john edwards 60 .29 .210 t=.846 (118), p=.399 average number of seconds candidate appeared in a story n mean sd significance george bush 357 42.6 33.11 john kerry 351 44.1 39.61 t= .550 (706), p=.583 average number of seconds candidate appeared in a story n mean sd significance dick cheney 60 28.4 25.91 john edwards 60 29.5 31.04 t= .223(118), p=.824 comparing candidates: treatment of candidates the previous tables indicate that the major party presidential candidates were given virtually the same amount of air time by philadelphia stations. while the quantity of coverage given each candidate is one indication of bias, it does not address the possibility of other qualitative differences in candidate coverage. for example, it is possible that a candidate embroiled in a scandal might actually receive more coverage than his opponent even 59 though the quantitative advantage may actually hurt the candidate’s chances. two different measures are used to examine the “treatment” of the presidential candidates by the news in philadelphia. first, coders recorded how often a candidate was criticized by someone else in each story. for each story, coders recorded instances of a candidate being critiqued by a reporter, another candidate, a campaign staffer, an ordinary citizen, or some other person. by aggregating each criticism category, it is possible to discover the total number of times each candidate faced some form of criticism and the percentage of stories in which each candidate received some form of criticism. if one candidate faced significantly more criticism than another, it is possible some partisan bias exists. second, coders were asked to play the role of a campaign manager by saying for each story whether or not they would be unsatisfied, neutral or satisfied with how their candidate was portrayed. a score of one equals unsatisfied, two equals neutral, and three equals satisfied. averaging these scores creates a composite measure of story satisfaction where the higher the score the more satisfied a hypothetical campaign manager would be with the story. if one candidate receives a higher overall satisfaction score than his opponent, it is possible some bias exists. although these two measures are related, they are actually designed to detect different aspects of candidate treatment. the campaign manager question looks at the story as a whole, while the criticism question looks for instances within a story where a candidate receives criticism. this means that it is possible for a story to be coded as favorable toward one candidate by a “campaign manager” even if it includes some criticism of the candidate in the story. for example, a story might focus almost entirely on the enthusiastic support george bush received at a campaign rally, then at the very end the story it may show a single soundbite from someone representing the small group of protesters that also attended the rally. this story would be coded as favorable toward bush, but it also would be counted as an instance of him receiving criticism. the reverse is also true; a story can be coded as unfavorable toward a candidate but not necessarily contain direct criticism. for instance, a story might simply report that john kerry was slipping in the polls but do so without any direct criticism of 60 him or his campaign by a third party. this story would be coded as unfavorable toward kerry but it would not be counted as an example of the story containing criticism. the results of both measures are reported in table 4. once again they show little evidence of direct favoritism among the major party candidates. none of the comparisons indicate a statistically significant difference between the major party candidates on the campaign manager satisfaction question. the results do suggest, however, that vice president dick cheney received more criticism than his rival, john edwards. vice president cheney received some form of criticism in 15% of the stories he appeared in compared to just 5% of the stories that edwards appeared in, although the difference was not statistically significant at the .05 level (p=.069). table 4: comparing candidate treatment in stories percentage of stories where candidate faced criticism n mean sd significance george bush 357 28% .448 t=.133 (706), p=.910 john kerry 351 27% .446 dick cheney 60 15% .360 t=1.836 (118), p=.069 john edwards 60 5% .219 average campaign manager score n mean sd significance george bush 357 2.10 .555 t= .774 (706), p=.439 john kerry 351 2.13 .581 dick cheney 60 2.08 .497 t=1.094 (118),p=.276 john edwards 60 2.18 .504 voting issue stories to this point the focus has been on stories about candidates, particularly presidential candidates. election coverage on local 61 television news, however, is not limited to candidate focused stories. for example, stories report on voter registration deadlines and provide information on various ways of voting, such as by absentee ballot. other stories focus on the process of setting up the election and the mechanics of the voting process. still others report on efforts by celebrities to get people to the polls. many stories also focus on allegations of voting irregularities, fraud, or election scams. in philadelphia, a total of 99 stories (17% of all stories) were these types of “voter information” stories. this is actually a sizable amount, more than three times the number of stories about all of philadelphia’s nonpresidential candidates combined. even so, philadelphia actually aired these stories somewhat less frequently than the other 10 markets in the study.16 that these stories appear to be quite prevalent is, by itself, an interesting finding. the key question, however, is how might these stories influence voters? since there is no literature on this topic, the following section reports the results of a closer examination of the 99 voter information stories that was conducted by the author. the goal is to propose a categorization scheme for thinking about these stories in a systematic way and begin to address the effects question posed above. for each story the three coders wrote a detailed headline about the main point of the story. the author reviewed these headlines and made an initial categorization of each coder’s headlines. the initial categories were developed based on the review of the headlines. for instance, the presence of headlines containing the words “kids, children, schools and voting,” led to the creation of a “kids and voting category.” similarly, headlines containing the words “fraud, scam, illegal, lawsuits,” led to the creation of a “fraud category.” if the initial categorization by the author “fit” for all three coders, the story was not reviewed. this occurred in 88 of the 99 stories. in the remaining 11 stories, the initial categorization by the author did not clearly fit with all of the coders or the author was unable to make a clear categorization based on the headlines. in these 11 cases, the story was reviewed by the author. this review process led to the realization that a few of the initial categorizations were too broad because it seemed reasonable that stories within a single category might have different effects on voters. for example, stories about expectations of a record voter 62 turnout could have a positive influence on voters since they focused on the importance other people are placing on the election. by contrast, other stories about voter turnout focused on how people were likely to have to wait for hours in order to cast ballots. these might have a negative influence on voters since it is possible a voter might decide that voting was not worth the time and effort. for this reason, additional categories were created and all stories in each initial category were re-examined by the author. with this process complete, all the story categories were then grouped into positive, neutral, and negative categories based on how the story might affect voters’ perceptions of the election. for instance, positive stories generally cast the election process as valid, worthy of the viewer’s attention, helpful to viewers in understanding the process of the election, or focused on the election as a “civic” function. the neutral category includes stories likely to have little impact on voters one way or another, such as those advertising a station’s upcoming election night coverage or those about election day weather. the negative category contains stories that generally question the validity of the election process or focus primarily on difficulties or obstacles voters are likely to face should they attempt to vote. the neutral category also includes stories that focus on the efforts by nonprofit groups or election officials to help overcome potential problems in the election. these stories contain both positive (a group working to solve potential problems) and negative (the potential problem itself). these stories were the only consistent case of story category containing both positive and negative components. in the few cases (less than five stories) where a different story topic included both positive and negative aspects, the aspect that was presented first in the story was chosen. table 5 shows that the majority of these stories most likely provide voters with information helpful to voting and portray the election process in a positive light. even so, 29 of the 99 stories focused on subjects that may cast some doubt on the validity of the election process and the value of participating in it. 63 table 5: voting issue stories type of voting issue story % of all voting issue stories (n=99) “positive” stories voter registration 7 celebrities to increase voter turnout 11 absentee ballot positive 1 voter turnout positive 3 kids and voting 3 methods and mechanics of voting 25 total positive stories 50 “neutral” stories “advertisements” about a station’s election coverage 10 election day weather forecasts 2 citizen group involvement with election 8 total neutral stories 20 “negative” stories absentee ballots negative 4 voter turnout negative 3 the potential for disruption of elections by terrorism 4 fraud, scams, pending lawsuits 18 total negative stories 29 conclusion the first goal of this study was to expand existing research concerning local television and elections by focusing on multiple races across multiple stations and news broadcasts. the results show that in philadelphia the only type of election story that received significant coverage were those about the presidential race. it does not seem too much of an exaggeration to suggest that a typical voter would be hard pressed to learn anything about downballot races from watching local news in philadelphia. 64 furthermore, these results show that for candidates in philadelphia’s down-ballot races, getting publicity on local television news was not a viable option. as a result, these candidates would seem to have few alternatives but to turn to paid advertising or possibly other media venues like radio and local newspapers to garner publicity for their campaigns. reliance on paid advertising requires candidates to raise enormous amount of money, which according to campaign finance reform advocates is a fundamental problem with american democracy. it is also important to remember that one of the cornerstones of fcc licensing of local television stations is a commitment to “localism,” which at least in terms of election coverage seems defined by coverage of down-ballot races. if philadelphia’s stations failed the “localism” test, they clearly passed another important measure of journalistic quality. this article shows that the stations were very balanced in the amount and type of coverage they gave to the major party candidates. while the results presented here focus on the presidential race, they generally held across all elections and even across individual stations. these results can be interpreted in different ways. first, perhaps a lack of overt bias is a conscious choice by news directors and reporters who work hard to provide fair and balanced coverage. second, perhaps the lack of bias is driven by time and money constraints faced by news directors and reporters. it is certainly easier and cheaper to attend two candidate events and “roll tape” than it is to engage in hard-hitting investigative journalism of even one candidate. it is difficult (but not impossible) for the former to be bias, while it is likely that the latter would include some overtly positive or negative framing of candidates. third, perhaps the lack of bias actually has little to do with the stations themselves and more to do with the highly disciplined and to some extent programmed nature of political candidates today. successful candidates often provide voters and television stations with little substantive information, preferring instead to speak in bland generalities. it is clearly more difficult for reporters to critique candidate statements that do not say anything than to critique even quasi-controversial statements from candidates. finally, it is important to note that to some extent this article equates equality with lack of bias. the abilities or behaviors (past or 65 present) of the candidates are not factored into the bias equation, but perhaps future research should do so. clearly this work needs to be expanded to more media markets, a process currently underway by the author using data from the larger lear center study. future research should also examine offyear elections to see how the lack of a presidential race changes the quantity and nature of election coverage on local television news. a closer look at election competitiveness in philadelphia the second goal of this article was to compare two seemingly reasonable hypotheses about how philadelphia’s television stations might balance coverage between presidential and nonpresidential elections. one hypothesis was that the presence of competitive down-ballot races would in a sense balance the coverage philadelphia’s television stations provided to presidential and nonpresidential races. obviously this hypothesis is not supported by the data. in fact, a closer look at the competitiveness of elections within the media market actually shows how unimportant competitiveness was in what philadelphia stations decided to cover. according to vote totals gathered from the secretary of state in pennsylvania and the division of elections in new jersey and delaware,17 the eight pennsylvania counties made up 66% of all the 2004 votes cast in the philadelphia media market. president bush lost these eight counties by a 21 point margin and lost the entire media market by an 18 point margin. this was driven in part by president bush’s loss of the most populous county in the market (philadelphia) by a 60 point margin. in fact, only four counties in the market (bucks, chester, lehigh, and northampton) were decided by less than five percentage points. so while pennsylvania as a whole was competitive in the presidential race, it is possible that philadelphia as a media market was not. at the same time, the opposite was true for other races in the philadelphia market. prior to the election, the pennsylvania senate race was characterized by the cook political report18 as “leaning republican,” indicating at least some degree of competitiveness. while statewide the election did not turn out to be close, it was fairly close in the counties making up the philadelphia media market. senator arlen specter beat democrat joe hoeffel handily 66 statewide (52% to 43%), but in the pennsylvania counties in the philadelphia market, hoeffel actually won the vote by three percentage points.19 despite the level of within market competitiveness, a total of just 16 stories focused on the u.s. senate race. in addition, three (pa 6th, 8th and 13th) of the 15 of u.s. house races20 held within the market were thought to be at least somewhat competitive prior to the election.21 it is true that only the 6th district contest remained competitive on election day with republican jim gerlach winning over democrat lois murphy by just three percentage points. even so, that only 11 out of almost 600 election stories focused on a u.s. house race is a telling example of how unimportant these races were viewed by philadelphia’s local television stations. while the low number of stories about u.s. house races makes “more” or “less” a relative concept, it seems that electoral competitiveness did not drive coverage of u.s. house races. candidates in the competitive 6th district appeared in just two stories while candidates in the 8th appeared in six stories and 13th district candidates appeared in nine stories even though those two contests were not competitive. obviously, additional research using more markets and in offyear elections is necessary before definitive conclusion can be made. still, the finding that within-market electoral competitiveness was essentially unimportant in driving philadelphia’s stations to cover down-ballot races is important. this is especially true given the repeated claims by broadcasters that lack of competitive downballot elections is one reason stations fail to cover them.22 a closer look at market size and ownership this article’s second hypothesis was that presidential coverage would dominate in philadelphia because it is a large market (making coverage of local races difficult) and because all the stations in the sample are owned by one of the four major media conglomerates (making coverage of local races less interesting to nationally centered reporters). clearly, presidential coverage dominated coverage in philadelphia; and while far from definitive, the results suggest that perhaps market size and ownership may have played a role in this outcome. 67 we can see the pattern when we compare the balance in philadelphia with the balance in the five markets in the larger lear center study that were also in what were considered to be presidential battleground states (dayton, ohio; des moines, iowa; and miami, orlando, and tampa in florida). fifty-nine percent of the stories in these five markets focused on the presidential race, an almost identical percentage to the breakdown in all 10 nonphiladelphia markets in the larger lear center study. in contrast, 76% of the stories in philadelphia focused on the presidential race. obviously, philadelphia is significantly larger in size than these five markets, perhaps making coverage of any one local race more difficult. in addition, philadelphia is the only one of these markets where all four stations are owned and operated by one of the big four media companies (abc, cbs, fox, and nbc). as a result, perhaps philadelphia’s reporters and anchors feel more pressure to appear that they are covering elections as network or national journalists might. this contention is supported by the fact the two other “large” markets in the lear center study (new york and los angeles) also devoted more than 70% of their stories to the presidential election.23 if larger markets are more likely to focus on top of the ticket races, this tendency might have been reinforced in philadelphia by the demographic characteristics of four nearby counties where the presidential race was close (bucks, chester, lehigh, and northampton). all four counties have higher median family incomes and levels of education than more populous philadelphia.24 the demographic makeup of these counties is likely more attractive to advertisers and hence television stations than is the demographic makeup of philadelphia. but because education and affluence are positively related to watching local television news,25 it is also possible that more local news viewers may live in the four smaller counties where the presidential race was highly competitive than in the rest of the market where the race was not competitive. in either case, it possible that television stations target their election coverage not to their entire media market but to selected segments of it. although more sophisticated analysis beyond a single market is needed, the results from philadelphia reveal a rich avenue for future research. 68 what’s local about local news? perhaps the only answer to the question posed in the title of this article is that while philadelphia’s local television stations ignore local candidates, they do provide a sizable number of local voter information stories. more stories aired in philadelphia about the mechanics and procedures of voting (25) than about either the u.s. senate race (16) or all u.s. house races combined (11). in addition, half of the voting issues stories were framed in ways that might signal voters that participating in elections has some intrinsic value. this suggests that philadelphia’s local television stations have not completely abandoned the media’s role as facilitator or at least advertiser of civic life, even if they have discarded any interest in critiquing or assessing local candidates. the philadelphia results, which were even more pronounced in the other markets in the larger lear center study, suggest that this may be a new and important area for future research. examining these noncandidate stories across a larger number of markets is a necessary first step in determining whether other markets cover voter information stories in ways similar to philadelphia. if the pattern recurs, the stories should be examined in more detail to discover how they may influence citizens’ beliefs about the validity of the electoral process. appendix a: overview of candidate visibility in u.s. senate and u.s house races the lack of stories about u.s. senate and u.s. house candidates makes statistical comparisons problematic. as a result, appendix a simply reports the aggregate totals for each race. they clearly show that the amount of time devoted to candidates running for the same office was virtually identical in all races. 69 candidate total stories candidate appeared in total time stories focused on average percentage of story that focused on candidate total amount of soundbite time average length of candidate soundbite u.s. senate arlen specter (r) 24 7 mins, 36 secs 39% 93 secs 12 secs joseph hoeffel (d) 22 6 mins, 38 secs 35% 94 secs 12 secs james clymer (i) 7 1 min 33% 20 secs 20 secs betsy summers (i) 5 51 secs 17% 17 secs 17 secs u.s. house (6th) jim gerlach (r) 2 1 min, 15 secs 63% 22 secs 7 secs lois murphy (d) 2 1 min, 5 secs 38% 25 secs 8 secs u.s. house (8th) mike fitzpatrick (r) 6 1 min, 48 secs 34% 14 secs 14 secs virginia schrader (d) 5 2 mins, 55 secs 41% 38 secs 10 secs u.s. house (13th) allyson schwartz (d) 9 1 min, 56 secs 26% 24 secs 8 secs john mcdermott (con) 4 30 secs 24% 0 0 chuck moulton (lib) 4 30 secs 24% 0 0 u.s. house (15th) charles dent (r) 1 1 min, 3 secs 50% 16 secs 8 secs joe driscoll (d) 1 1 min, 3 secs 50% 16 secs 8 secs appendix b ralph nader comparisons ralph nader did not appear on the pennsylvania ballot in 2004. so it is not surprising that he received less coverage than the two major party candidates. the difference, however, is quite dramatic. nader appeared in 34 stories compared with over 350 for both bush and kerry. nader received a total of 17 minutes of air time 70 compared with over four hours for both bush and kerry. nader spoke in three soundbites for a total of 24 secs. in comparison, both bush and kerry were shown speaking over 100 times for more than 20 minutes each. in addition to these vast differences in the quantity of air time, philadelphia’s stations covered nader in qualitatively different ways. most of nader’s stories focused on his difficulties getting on the ballot. in many respects this explains the results. stories about nader’s attempt to get on the ballot were much more likely to focus exclusively on nader than were “regular” stories about bush and kerry. this helps explain why a higher percentage of the overall story time was on average higher for nader (.61) than it was for either bush (.53) or kerry (.51). in addition, these stories were more likely to be shorter, consist of straight news reporting, and because nader failed to get on the pennsylvania ballot to be unfavorable toward nader. this helps explain why nader received less air time per story and less criticism but more unfavorable coverage than the other candidates. average percentage of a story devoted to candidate n mean sd significance ralph nader 34 .61 .398 george bush 357 .53 .239 t=1.714(389), p=.087 ralph nader 34 .61 .398 john kerry 351 .51 .239 t=2.245(383),p=.025 average number of secs each candidate appeared in a story n mean sd significance ralph nader 34 28.1 29.92 george bush 357 42.6 33.11 t= -2.470(389),p=.014 ralph nader 34 28.1 29.92 john kerry 351 44.1 39.61 t= -2.302(383),p=.022 71 percentage of stories where candidate faced criticism n mean sd significance ralph nader 34 .09 .287 george bush 357 .28 .448 t= -2.411 (389), p=.016 ralph nader 34 .09 .287 john kerry 351 .27 .446 t= -2.371 (383), p=.018 average campaign manager score n mean sd significance ralph nader 34 1.50 .615 george bush 357 2.10 .555 t=-5.948(389),p=.000 ralph nader 34 1.50 .615 john kerry 351 2.13 .581 t=-6.020(383), p=.000 appendix c individual station comparisons the limited difference in how stations covered the presidential race is by itself an interesting finding. the data below show the percentage of presidential candidate appearances that each station devoted to each candidate. station bush % (n) kerry % (n) nader % (n) cheney % (n) edwards % (n) abc (n=333) 40.2 (134) 40.2 (134) 6.0 (20) 6.9 (23) 6.6 (22) cbs (n=206) 41.7 (86) 40.3 (83) 3.4 (7) 7.8 (16) 6.8 (14) fox (n=27) 40.7 (11) 37.0 (10) 0.0 (0) 11.1 (3) 11.1 (3) nbc (n=296) 42.6 (126) 41.9 (124) 2.4 (7) 6.1 (18) 7.1 (21) 72 on the more qualitative variables, the results again show almost no differences in how each station treated each candidate. on the abc station in philadelphia none of the comparisons proved significant. on the cbs station, dick cheney had a significantly higher percentage of story time devoted to him than john edwards did (t=2.726 (28), p=.011). none of the other cbs comparisons were significant. because of the small number of stories aired by the fox station, only presidential comparisons are possible. the only comparison that proved even marginally significant statistically was that george bush had a lower campaign manager score than did john kerry (t= -1.832(19), p=.083) on the fox station. similarly, the only even marginally significant difference on the nbc station was that john edwards received a higher campaign manager score than did dick cheney (t= -1.874 (37), p=.069). because of the small number of stories featuring ralph nader, comparisons are made only between the major party candidates. abc stories average percentage of a story devoted to candidate n mean sd significance george bush 134 .51 .228 john kerry 134 .47 .222 t=1.592 (266), p=.113 dick cheney 23 .29 .207 john edwards 22 .31 .220 t=-.388 (43), p=.700 average number of secs each candidate appeared in a story n mean sd significance george bush 134 42.1 34.15 john kerry 134 42.3 44.52 t= -.053 (266), p=.958 dick cheney 23 32.2 31.75 john edwards 22 34.1 39.44 t= -.185 (43), p=.855 percentage of stories where candidate faced criticism n mean sd significance george bush 134 .32 .468 john kerry 134 .34 .474 t= -.259 (266), p=.796 dick cheney 23 .26 .448 john edwards 22 .09 .294 t=1.495 (43), p=.142 73 average campaign manager score n mean sd significance george bush 134 2.08 .476 john kerry 134 2.09 .527 t=-.122 (266), p=.903 dick cheney 23 2.00 .522 john edwards 22 2.14 .468 t= -.921(43), p=.362 cbs stories average percentage of a story devoted to candidate n mean sd significance george bush 86 .53 .263 john kerry 83 .55 .241 t= -.346 (167), p=.729 dick cheney 16 .48 .304 john edwards 14 .24 .180 t=2.726 (28), p=.011 average number of secs each candidate appeared in a story n mean sd significance george bush 86 46.6 36.35 john kerry 83 51.9 42.11 t= -.868(167), p=.387 dick cheney 16 27.3 19.15 john edwards 14 24.7 33.93 t=.261 (28), p=.796 percentage of stories where candidate faced criticism n mean sd significance george bush 86 .28 .451 john kerry 83 .27 .444 t=.203 (167), p=.839 dick cheney 16 .06 .250 john edwards 14 .07 .267 t= -.095 (28), p=.925 average campaign manager score n mean sd significance george bush 86 2.17 .723 john kerry 83 2.20 .712 t= -.275 (167), p=.783 dick cheney 16 2.38 .500 john edwards 14 2.29 .726 t=.396 (28), p=.796 fox stories26 average percentage of a story devoted to candidate n mean sd significance george bush 11 .52 .260 john kerry 10 .49 .251 t=.293 (19), p=.773 74 average number of secs each candidate appeared in a story n mean sd significance george bush 11 57.6 40.44 john kerry 10 59.3 36.13 t= -.099 (19), p=.922 percentage of stories where candidate faced criticism n mean sd significance george bush 11 .09 .301 john kerry 10 .10 .316 t= -.067 (19), p=.947 average campaign manager score n mean sd significance george bush 86 1.91 .302 john kerry 83 2.20 .422 t= -1.832 (19), p=.083 nbc stories average percentage of a story devoted to candidate n mean sd significance george bush 126 .55 .234 john kerry 124 .52 .249 t=.896 (248), p=.371 dick cheney 18 .26 .133 john edwards 21 .33 .220 t= -1.290 (37), p=.205 average number of secs each candidate appeared in a story n mean sd significance george bush 126 39.19 28.45 john kerry 124 39.70 31.00 t= -.135 (248), p=.893 dick cheney 18 26.1 25.45 john edwards 21 28.5 19.92 t= -.335 (37), p=.739 percentage of stories where candidate faced criticism n mean sd significance george bush 126 .25 .432 john kerry 124 .23 .419 t=.375 (248), p=.708 dick cheney 18 .11 .323 john edwards 21 .00 .000 t=1.578 (37), p=.123 average campaign manager score n mean sd significance george bush 126 2.08 .515 john kerry 124 2.12 .550 t= -.617 (248), p=.538 dick cheney 18 1.94 .416 john edwards 21 2.19 .402 t= -1.874 (37), p=.069 75 notes 1. pew center for the people and the press survey reports, “news audiences increasingly politicized: online news audience larger, more diverse” (june 8, 2004); “public more critical of press, but goodwill persists” (june 26, 2005); “voters impressed with campaign: but news coverage gets lukewarm ratings” (october 24, 2004). see http://people press.org. 2. the 11 markets studied were new york, los angeles, philadelphia, dallas, miami, tampa, orlando, denver, seattle, des moines, and dayton (ohio). the results of the full study are available at www.localnewsarchive.org. 3. the new york media market also covers three states: new york, new jersey, and connecticut. 4. the number of elections was calculated based on data from the secretary of state in pennsylvania (http://www.dos.state.pa.us/dos/site/default.asp) and the division of elections in new jersey http://www.state.nj.us/lps/elections/ electionshome.html and delaware http://www.state.de.us/election/archive/ elect04/2004_electionindex.shtml. 5. http://www.cookpolitical.com october 29, 2004. 6. pennsylvania voters had races for attorney general, auditor, and state treasurer. delaware had races for governor, lieutenant governor, and insurance commissioner. the attorney general, auditor, and state treasurer races in pennsylvania and the insurance commissioner in delaware were all open seats. 7. philadelphia dma voters participated in 16 federal legislative elections, 10 in pennsylvania, five in new jersey, and one in delaware. 8. according to the cook political report for october 26, 2004, the 6th and 8th pennsylvania congressional district were also classified as “leaning” republican. the 13th district in pennsylvania was classified as leaning democratic. 9. cook political report, october 29, 2004. http://www.cookpolitical.com 10. much of this pattern was driven by the nbc and abc affiliates in philadelphia, which were both in the top 15 of the 44 station sample in terms of total number of stories aired. in comparison, the fox affiliate aired a total of just 21 election stories, the lowest number among the 44 stations studied. the cbs affiliate was average in terms of the number of stories aired, in part because it airs an evening news program at 4:00 p.m. outside the time period captured. 11. t= 7.57(4029), p=.000 12. an additional nine stories included a u.s. senate candidate with other candidates, so at best the four stations aired a total of 25 stories about the u.s. senate race. of these 25 stories, 19 (or 76%) focused on strategy or horserace and four stories (16%) focused on issues. sixteen of the 25 stories (60%) aired during the final week and eight (32%) aired on the day before the election. 13. an additional seven stories mentioned u.s. house candidates either with candidates for other offices or while discussing noncampaign-related activities. this means at best a total of 18 stories aired featuring a u.s. house candidate. of these 18 stories, 14 focused on strategy/horserace, one focused on issues, and three were coded as “other.” fifty percent of these stories aired in the final week of the campaign. 14. in the larger report the comparisons described above did not include u.s. senate races or other statewide races. because the number of nonpresidential 76 election stories in philadelphia is so small, the u.s. senate and statewide races are included together. 15. see http://freepress.net/conference/. also see the recommendations of the so-called gore commission at http://www.ntia.doc.gov/pubintadvcom/ pubint.htm. 16. voting issue stories made up 22% of the stories in the other markets. the difference between philadelphia and the other 10 markets in the quantity of voting issues stories was statistically significant (t= 2.547 (7019), p=.011. 17. for pennsylvania see http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/electionreturns. for new jersey see http:// www.state.nj.us/lps/elections/electionshome.html. for delaware see http://www. state.de.us/election/archive/elect04/2004_election_index.shtml. 18. http://www.cookpolitical.com october 29, 2004. 19. see http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/electionreturns. 20. philadelphia dma voters participated in 15 u.s. house elections, nine in pennsylvania, five in new jersey and one in delaware. 21. according to the october 26, 2004, cook political report, the 6th and 8th pennsylvania congressional district were classified as “leaning” republican. the 13th district in pennsylvania was classified as leaning democratic. 22. see the national association of broadcaster’s “free air time” newsletter available at http://www.nab.org. 23. as in philadelphia, all the stations in new york and los angeles are owned and operated by one of the four major media companies. in the new york market 76% of the stories were about the presidential race, and in los angeles 74% of the stories were about the presidential race. 24. according to the 2000 u.s. census, the median family income in these counties was: bucks $68,727; chester $76,916; lehigh $53,147; northampton $53,955; and philadelphia $37,036. the percentage of people with at least a b.a. degree was: bucks 31.2%; chester 42.5%; lehigh 23.3%; northampton 21.2%, and philadelphia 17.9%. 25. see http://www.stateofthenewsmedia.org/2006/. 26. the fox station only aired three stories on the vice presidential candidates making statistical comparisons meaningless. the low number of stories about presidential candidates requires that even these results be viewed with caution. references althaus, s.l.; nardulli, p.f.; and shaw, d.r. 2002. “candidate appearances in presidential elections, 1972–2000.” political communication 19: 49–72. ansolabehere, s., and iyengar, s. 1995. going negative: how political ads shrink and polarize the electorate. new york: free press. bartels, l.m. 1988. presidential primaries and the dynamics of public choice. princeton: princeton university press. beck, p.a.; dalton, r.j.; greene, s.; and huckfeldt, r. 2002. “the social calculus of voting: interpersonal, media, and organizational influences on presidential choices.” american political science review 96: 57–73. 77 carter, s.; fico, f.; and mccabe, j.a. 2002. “partisan and structural balance in local television news coverage.” journalism and mass communication quarterly 79 (1): 41–53. cronbach, l. j. 1951. “coefficient alpha and the internal structure of tests.” psychometrika 16: 297–334. entman, r.m. 1992. “how the media affect what people think: an information processing approach.” journal of politics 51: 347–370. finkel, s. e., and geer, j.g. 1998. “a spot check: casting doubt on the demobilizing effect of attack advertising.” american journal of political science 42: 573–595. gilliam, f.d., and iyengar, s. 2000. “prime suspects: the influence of local television news on the viewing public.” american journal of political science 44: 560–573. goldstein, k., and freedman, p. 2002. campaign advertising and voter turnout: new evidence for a stimulation effect. journal of politics 64: 721–740. graber, d.a. 1997. mass media and american politics. 5th ed. washington, d.c.: cq press. ________. 2001. processing politics: learning from television in the internet age. chicago: university of chicago press. iyengar, s., and kinder, d. 1987. news that matters. chicago: university of chicago press. just, m.; crigler, a.; and buhr, t. 1999. “voice, substance, and cynicism in presidential campaign media.” political communication 16 (1): 25–44 ________; crigler, a.; alger, d; cook, t.; kern, m; and west, d. 1996. crosstalk: citizens, candidates, and the media in a presidential campaign. chicago: university of chicago press. kaplan, m.; goldstein, k.; and hale, m. (2004) “local news coverage of the 2004 campaigns: an analysis of nightly broadcasts in 11 markets.” university of southern california norman lear center. www.localnewsarchive.org. krippendorff, k. 1978. “reliability of binary attribute data.” biometrics 34: 142– 144. nunnally, j. c. 1978. psychometric theory. 2nd ed. new york: mcgraw hill. patterson, t.e.; and mcclure, r. 1976. the unseeing eye: the myth of television power in national politics. new york: putnam. shaw, d. 1999. “the effect of tv ads and candidate appearances on statewide presidential votes, 1988–1996.” american political science review 93: 345– 361. snider, j. 2000. “local television news archives as a public good.” harvard international journal of press and politics. 5 (2): 111-118. tinsley, h. e. a., and weiss, d. j. 2000. “interrater reliability and agreement.” in handbook of applied multivariate statistics and mathematical modeling, eds. h. e. a. tinsley and s. d. brown. san diego, ca: academic press. valentino, n.a. 1999. “crime news and the priming of racial attitudes during evaluations of the president.” public opinion quarterly 60 (4): 515–541. wattenberg, m.p., and brians, c.l. 1999. “negative campaign advertising: demobilizer or mobilizer?” american political science review 93: 891–899. microsoft word journal commonwealth 2007 final 0307.doc 133 book reviews comments from the book review editor this is the first issue of commonwealth to include book reviews. our readers expressed a desire for a book review section, and though it may have taken longer than some might have hoped, the editorial staff responded to our readers’ request. in selecting books to review, we decided to give preference to titles dealing with pennsylvania government, politics, policy, and history. we hope that our readers enjoy this new feature, and that they will recommend new or classic titles for review. readers interested in reviewing books for commonwealth should send their names, contact information, areas of scholarly interest, and brief curriculum vitae to dr. thomas j. baldino, commonwealth book review editor, department of political science, wilkes university, wilkesbarre, pa 18766. 134 a prayer for the city. by h.g. (buzz) bissinger. new york: random house, 1997. 448 pp., $25.95 cloth, isbn: 0-679-4219-8x; $15.00 paper, isbn: 0-679-74494-0 in 1996, i interviewed for a job with the washington, d.c. housing authority, which oversees a substantial public housing operation serving the needs of lower-income residents of our nation’s capitol. i was terribly under-qualified for the position, but the challenge excited me. the housing authority was entering receivership, which typically means that the administration responsible for running the authority into the ground would soon be removed. i felt quite confident about how i did during the interview, how i could be an asset, how young, bright minds like mine were just what was needed to right this ship! in the hot august afternoon, i walked three blocks to where i had parked my vehicle. en route, i saw a resident walk out of her public house and fling empty soda bottles on her front lawn. i walked over used condoms and drug needles. in all, i saw ten littering violations to an already disgusting landscape, and my confidence and positive outlook fell quickly. one thought hit me concerning my chosen vocation of helping communities rebound: can one person make any difference in a culture where failure and poverty are so rampant? almost ten years later, the question remains open for debate. many politicians take great credit for gentrified neighborhoods, which is a valid claim if one’s goal was to chase lower-income residents out of one’s backyard-shifting failure and poverty, not eliminating it. others build arenas, malls, and stadiums with public dollars and claim that the city’s crumbling schools and houses will “come back” because 500 ushers will be employed at minimum wages for eight football games over the span of one calendar year. the hopefulness of newly elected officials and expectant residents is quickly tempered by what appears to be the hopelessness of the american city: residents flee because there are better places to live, and cities either cannot or will not fight hard enough to retain these residents. and the cycle continues… i must confess to absolutely loving a prayer for the city. i read it for the first time while taking an urban studies class at the university of rochester, where the local community foundation gave me a chance to witness how its modest grants were working to 135 revitalize a slumping city. i’ve since read the book at least thirty times, and each time i am struck by the completeness and totality of bissinger’s work. his holistic approach to studying the rendell administration not only makes for enjoyable reading, but also guarantees that the reader will be aware of the time and place of the policies of the administration. ed rendell can welcome all the beauty contestants he likes, but the gritty reality is that philadelphia was barely breathing when he arrived and had improved little over his first four years. that bissinger is able to portray this result accurately while painting the mayor as a charismatic, can-do figure tells this reader that he understands community development and neighborhood revitalization in the 1990s. just as the reader fully grasps the predicament of philadelphia, bissinger answers the question “how did we get here?” before the reader can ask it. on page 203, bissinger uncovers the homeowners loan corporation (holc) map, drawn in 1937 and now stored at the national archives in a very inconspicuous place. in this map, assessors determined the viability of neighborhoods based solely on the ethnicity of their residents. today we would call that discrimination; in 1937 it was sound fiscal policy and helped set the stage for the u.s. mortgage market, the single largest wealthcreating force in this country, unless, of course, one happens to live in the “do-not-lend” neighborhoods. this map, and the 10 pages of analysis that discuss it, should be required reading for every policymaker in the united states. all community development policy since 1937 is, in my humble opinion, a direct result of this map and analysis. the fate of poor neighborhoods was sealed when lenders determined that lending to residents in poor areas was far too risky for their business. in the 1970s, more than 30 years after holc drew their maps, the community reinvestment act mandated that lenders return capital to the neighborhoods from which they receive deposits. but lenders were one step ahead; in the late 1980s, risk-based pricing and subprime loans proliferated in neighborhoods the holc would have cautioned against entering. from a dearth of capital to unreasonably priced capital, minorities and lower-income persons continue to pay for the 1937 map. bissinger takes the reader into the neighborhoods where the lower-income residents fight for survival; where middle-income city lovers must choose between better housing, better school, safer 136 streets, lower taxes, or staying in the city; where public servants take small pleasure in courtroom victories as a way to “strike back” at the element they see as destroying their beloved city; and where shipyard workers ponder an uncertain future as manufacturing flees the scene of the crime with a swiftness matched only by the industrial revolution that precipitated it. a book typically is only as good as the access its author had to the stories contained within, and bissinger’s continuous access to the mayor makes for compelling reading. but the residents tell the real story of philadelphia. those who could move out, in most cases, did; while those who could not remained behind to observe the decay firsthand. working as a community development advocate, i believe that one person can make a difference in this field, but not without knowing the real story of america’s struggling communities. there is no better source than a prayer for the city. michael butchko senior advisor, public policy and legislative affairs neighborhood reinvestment corporation pennsylvania constitutional development. by rosalind branning. pittsburgh: university of pittsburgh press, 1960. 166 pp., $24.95 paper, isbn: 0-8229-5818-x one of the drawbacks of so much scholarly attention given to the u.s. constitution is a lack of appreciation and respect for the lineage of state constitutions. in this reissue of pennsylvania constitutional development (original published in 1960), branning traces the history of pennsylvania’s constitution, from its framing in 1776 to calls for change in the late 1950s. along the way, she considers how well the constitution was able to address the challenges facing the commonwealth and foresee the problems and issues that might lie ahead. in branning’s view, pennsylvania’s constitutional development has not been one that would make its citizens proud. because pennsylvania’s constitution has not kept up with the “needs of an increasingly complex society” (5), we are left with “[t]he imposition of the will of a past generation upon the present,” which branning argues, “is not only unwise but undemocratic” (6). 137 pennsylvania constitutional development contains three major themes. first, branning asserts that pennsylvania’s constitution is in need of wholesale revision at the hands of a constitutional convention. since the constitutional convention of 1874, pennsylvania has opted for the piecemeal approach of amendments when, in fact, a constitutional convention “makeover” is in order. second, though branning calls on pennsylvanians to revise their constitution through a convention, she faults the product of the last convention, held in1874, stating that that constitution “so hampered the legislature that it cannot act efficiently or effectively” (2). branning’s criticism of the 1874 constitution and her plea for a constitutional convention stems from her third and final theme: good constitutional draftsmanship is marked by broad, general wording that allows the constitution to breathe and expand over time. branning chooses to tell the story of pennsylvania’s constitutional development using three different time periods. part i examines pennsylvania’s constitutions of 1776, 1790, and 1838. drafted in the shadow of the american revolution, pennsylvania’s original constitution (1776) reflected the radicalism of its time. it provided for a unicameral legislature that met annually and whose proceedings were open to the public and published weekly. executive distrust resulted in an executive council, rather than a governor. while the judges on the supreme court were appointed by the executive council for seven-year terms, they could be dismissed by the legislature for “misbehavior.” the constitution of 1790 replaced the plural executive and unicameral legislature with a governor and bicameral legislature, respectively, while judges were given greater independence by being allowed to serve for “good behavior.” at the behest of “liberal reformers,” a constitutional convention was assembled in 1837, which produced the constitution of 1838. a divided convention discussed the length of the governor’s term, voting, and public education, among other topics, but the deep divisions largely resulted in maintaining the basic structure of the 1790 constitution. part ii, the longest segment of the book, is reserved for the most detailed constitution in pennsylvania history, the constitution of 1874. legislative reform was the aim of the 1874 convention because of the prior legislative practice of passing private legislation, which benefited narrow interests. for example, prior to 138 the 1874 constitution, railroad companies held enormous sway over the legislature and reaped the benefits of that influence. recognizing this problem, the convention forbade the general assembly from passing special legislation on 27 different subjects. branning points out, however, that despite the needed reforms the convention restrained the legislature in ways that hampered its efficiency and effectiveness. these restrictions included shifting from annual to biennial sessions and securing regularity in the legislative process (bills can cover only one subject, must have a clear title, and must be read on three separate days in each house). the convention also limited the representation of philadelphia in the state house. part iii examines 20th century development through 1959. branning laments the fact that amendments, not wholesale revision, marked the change in pennsylvania’s constitution in the 20th century. because this is a reissue, and not a new edition of the book, the reader is left to speculate about what branning would say regarding all of the changes made since the book’s publication. the long list of amendments called for in 1959 by the commission on constitutional revision, along with the unlikelihood of ratifying so many of them, caused branning again to urge the creation of a constitutional convention. though many of branning’s ideas—and the commission’s formal recommendations—were ratified (e.g. allowing the governor to serve two terms and annual legislative sessions), others were not. though many amendments to the constitution were ratified throughout the 1980s and 1990s, a constitutional convention to address the long-term ills of the constitution has yet to be called. when “[t]he need for constitutional revision is urgent” (156) but the demand for revision is not, it is no wonder we are still addressing the shortcomings of our constitution in piecemeal fashion. in sum, pennsylvania constitutional development is a story worthy of being read by those interested in pennsylvania history and state constitutional development. though it does not provide a comparative perspective whereby the reader can evaluate pennsylvania’s constitutional development in the context of surrounding states’ constitutional development, it does present an indictment worthy of discussion and serious thought. readers interested in learning how to reconcile a constitution with democratic principles, however, will be disappointed. branning 139 fails to deliver on her promise to show why the “imposition of the will of a past generation upon the present is not only unwise but undemocratic” (6). branning might be one of many who find fault with the 1874 document but it constrains us—if it does at all—only if we allow it to. an undemocratic constitution is one that governs a society that cannot amend it, not a society that has chosen not to amend it. kyle l. kreider wilkes university a capitol journey: reflections on the press, politics, and the making of public policy in pennsylvania. by vincent p. carocci. university park, pa: the pennsylvania state university press, 2005. 298 pp., $39.95 cloth, isbn: 0-271-02546-8 a capitol journey is an intriguing book written by an equally intriguing observer of, and player in, pennsylvania politics from 1961 to 1995. it is not a political history as such, a point which the author makes in the preface. it is a memoir of a man who began his career in harrisburg as a news reporter, became a staff member for the senate democrats, and finished a senior staffer for governor robert casey. the result is an episodic book. initially, we learn perhaps more than we might want to know about his family history, although it provides interesting insights into the process by which an immigrant family entered the political system. next, we are given insights into the manner in which the capitol press corps operated in the 1960s. carocci’s shift from reporting the game to becoming a player in it provides the reader with insights on the operations of the senate. however, the house of representatives is ignored. even in the senate, the focus is on the democrats. carocci’s entry into the executive branch of the government under casey shifts the focus again. this is to be expected in a personal memoir. carocci does not hesitate to render his opinions of those with whom he worked and the various legislators with whom he interacted. some of the legislators whom he names—not always in complimentary terms—are still active in harrisburg. his detailed descriptions of some of the manipulators that he observed and the 140 scandals surrounding four senators in the 1970s should be read by every pennsylvania voter before going to the polls. each governor from david lawrence to richard thornburgh has his own chapter. casey is given an entire section. carocci’s views of the governors do not appear to be influenced by his democratic party connections. in assessing the governors he knew and covered, he ranks william scranton with casey. despite the uneven coverage, this is a book worth reading by anyone trying to understand the operation of pennsylvania’s state government in the latter part of the 20th century. harold cox wilkes university front-page pittsburgh: two hundred years of the post-gazette. by clarke m. thomas. pittsburgh: university of pittsburgh press, 2005. 332 pp., $34.95 cloth, isbn: 0-8229-42488 in a famous letter to colonel edward carrington written in 1787, thomas jefferson offered perhaps one of the most compelling statements for the intrinsic value of a free press to a democratic society. “were it left to me to decide whether we should have a government without newspapers or newspapers without government,” he observed, “i should not hesitate a moment to prefer the latter.” that jefferson advocated civic engagement and discussion through a free press, despite enormous criticism leveled at him by newspaper editors and contributors for his anti-federalist political stance, shows just how democratic the notion was. among jefferson’s early detractors was john scull, printer and original editor of the pittsburgh gazette, the city’s first newspaper established just a year before jefferson’s famous comment. the young nation’s early political tensions were often played out in the press, and they mirrored the challenges american journalists have faced ever since in their frequently unpopular role as “watchdogs over the government.” clarke m. thomas, retired senior editor of the pittsburgh postgazette, expertly chronicles the nuanced, often complex life of the nearly 220-year old newspaper that emerged when the country was but a “howling wilderness.” as thomas illustrates, the newspaper’s 141 initial tendencies, “a serious nature, a friendly attitude toward business, involvement in community affairs and open to varying opinions—within limits” (6), carried the publication through a myriad of social, political, and economic challenges and sustained it when so many other newspapers collapsed or merged. in many ways, the pittsburgh post-gazette defied the odds and survived when it probably should not have, making thomas’s historical account an occasionally surprising and dramatic book. thomas’s account underscores the notion that journalists not only chronicle history but frequently shape it. his focus in the first chapter of the book on scull’s political advocacy establishes what would become a truism for over two centuries: that the newspaper and its leadership clearly shaped much of pittsburgh’s, and even the nation’s, political awareness and identity. drawing heavily from numerous historical accounts, such as j. cutler andrews’ pittsburgh’s post-gazette, as well as original news stories and editorials from the newspaper, thomas navigates readers through wars, economic boom and decline, uncomfortable race issues from slavery to civil rights, changes in editorial identity from conservative to liberal, and the murky waters of media competition and business mergers. indeed, it is in thomas’s examination of mergers that the pittsburgh post-gazette takes on a somewhat mythic character, surviving when so many newspapers across the nation collapsed under the weight of competition, bad management, ethical challenges, or simply the changing political tide. almost at its very inception, the pittsburgh gazette faced local competition, mostly, according to thomas, because of the political factions that emerged at the same time across the new country. but the gazette staved off that competition until, almost inexplicably, it merged with the pittsburgh post in 1927. thomas’s description that opens the chapter on the merger emphasizes the event as a turning point in the newspaper’s staying power, though he certainly does not suggest that it answers all questions on that front. the 1927 transaction that resulted in the union of the gazette and the post was one of the most mysterious in the history of pittsburgh and, indeed, of national journalism. without any warning to the staffs involved, four newspapers 142 were combined into two, and then, within minutes, reconfigured to form completely different combinations. (148) thomas narrates an extraordinary deal of bait-and-switch between two media moguls, william randolph hearst and paul block, sr. after behind-closed-doors meetings and a rapid-fire business exchange before the ink on the acquisition papers was dry, the newspaper that would become the modern pittsburgh postgazette was born and the newspaper competition in the city was reduced from five to three. post-merger, the newspaper’s story became the nation’s story— wrestling with the realities of the civil rights movement, dr. martin luther king’s assassination, public outcry over political stances of its editorial pages, and frequently controversial coverage of education and abortion issues. but the book’s description of the 1992 teamster’s strike at a rival newspaper offers impressive, particularized detail to an issue especially poignant in the northeast: the tensions between corporate and family ownership. perhaps what makes this book most noteworthy is that the pittsburgh post-gazette’s history spans over two centuries—nearly the life of the city in which it was born. thus, it is a story not just of a single publication, but rather of a growing and changing city and nation. while the hartford courant is widely regarded as the nation’s oldest continuous newspaper, and the drama of the new york times and the chicago tribune certainly garners those publications more time in the public spotlight, thomas shows that the pittsburgh post-gazette’s narrative may be more fundamental to understanding the evolution of american print media. thomas’s account moves at a journalistic pace, which makes it eminently readable, and archival photographs offer fascinating visual support and detail. the book recommends just as easily to the casual barnes and noble bestseller reader as it does to a student in an advanced media history course. andrea breemer frantz wilkes university 143 the wpa history of the negro in pittsburgh. edited by laurence a glasco. pittsburgh, pa: university of pittsburgh press, 2004. 432 pp., $39.95 cloth, isbn: 0-8229-4232-1 one does not often have the opportunity to review a book that was truly seven decades in the making, so obviously the first question to confront is, was it worth the wait? although it is painful to realize that this valuable resource has existed in obscurity for so long, the only possible answer is an emphatic yes. this work has great value not just to those interested in the history of pittsburgh but also to scholars of african-american, new deal, and urban studies as well. the genesis of this book was in the american guide series, which was part of the new deal’s federal writer’s project. created in 1935, the project was terminated by a conservative congress in 1939, making this but one of many works that was never completed. the manuscripts (there are multiple drafts and conflicting outlines and indices) have been in the pennsylvania state library in harrisburg since the 1940s. few scholars have used this outstanding resource on african-american urban life, even though it was microfilmed in 1970. laurence a. glasco, an associate professor of history at the university of pittsburgh, has edited the manuscripts to create a very coherent and usable volume. he has also written a complete yet brief introduction that provides an excellent framework for understanding the work itself. in just 15 pages, he not only explains how he edited the text and gives the all important background of this new deal project, but also nicely explores the original book’s strengths and weaknesses. this introduction greatly expands the potential audience for the volume, as now undergraduates and others can access the work easily. to make full use of the microfilm, users formerly had to bring this information with them; in the published volume, glasco nicely packages the needed contextual background. the book consists of 14 chapters, six appendices (most were part of the original project but one is a guide to what was microfilmed), four maps (all added), and a newly created index. because this was a work in progress with multiple authors, the chapters vary greatly in scope and focus. they are arranged in roughly chronological order and provide as a whole an interesting 144 1930s popular history of blacks in the pittsburgh area from the colonial period to the great depression. to an urban historian, chapters 12 and 13, “folkways” and “arts and culture,” are likely to be the most interesting ones. they provide many insights into everyday african-american life in pittsburgh during the first third of the 20th century. this work can be coupled with w. e. b. dubois’ masterful the philadelphia negro: a social study (1899; rev. ed., philadelphia: university of pennsylvania press, 1995) to provide students with an excellent introduction to the details of the late 19th and early 20th century black northern urban experience. any work like this has its limitations, and glasco acknowledges them in his introduction. for the scholar, it is quite frustrating that few of the original sources have been noted and that women, although present, are under-represented in many of the chapters. most of these shortcomings are simply inherent in a volume that was never meant for an academic audience and the rest are likely the result of its incomplete nature or the period in which it was created. thanks to glasco’s thorough introduction, none of these limitations seriously affect the value of the book. for graduate students and other scholars, this work serves as an outstanding introduction to the microfilmed documents. by reading this book before exploring the manuscript, it should be much easier to make sense of original documents. for most teachers and students at the secondary and undergraduate levels, this volume can substitute for the microfilm in providing a primary source from seven decades ago on still unresolved issues of race and class in urban america. for anyone interested in pittsburgh or the africanamerican urban experience in the early twentieth century, this work is a must. both glasco and the university of pittsburgh press should be congratulated for making this valuable volume widely available. john h. hepp, iv wilkes university harry, tom, and father rice: accusation and betrayal in america’s cold war. by john hoerr. pittsburgh, pa: university of pittsburgh press, 2005. 344 pp., $29.95 cloth, isbn: 0-8229-4265-8 this book is an illuminating examination of the effects of the red scare on a congressman, a labor union leader, and a catholic 145 priest who lived in the pittsburgh area during the height of mccarthyism. the primary strength of hoerr’s book is the richly detailed biographical information that he draws upon to create a highly nuanced look at the decision-making processes of those who found themselves to have the misfortune of appearing before the house un-american activities committee. another important strength of this book is the insight it provides on the interplay between labor unions and anti-communist fervor during the late 1940s and 1950s. the book tells the story of representative harry davenport, labor union leader tom quinn, and father charles owen rice. hoerr can personalize each story because of his personal ties with each man, most especially his uncle, harry davenport. the book is also aided by a number of personal interviews that provide a great deal of information that otherwise would have been lost to history. the preservation of this story is important to understanding how the red scare affected the lives of regular, working-class americans. the author’s intimate knowledge of the characters and his informal writing style make for vivid reading. hoerr presents many interesting themes in the course of the book. foremost among them is the ideological evolution of harry and father rice. harry was elected to congress in 1948 as a champion of workers’ rights and a progressive determined to help the “little guy.” almost immediately upon his arrival in washington he learned that things would not be easy because of the prevailing political situation engendered by the red scare, which made it very difficult for harry to maintain his leftist ideology. however, the most surprising aspect of harry’s story is the speed with which his ideals evaporated. harry’s evolution is especially noteworthy because the ultimate betrayal of his most closely held values was caused not by real change from within, but by political expediency. the book thus contains a cautionary tale of the compromises sometimes necessary for public service. the clash between harry’s values and his pragmatism underscores the conflict between idealism and political necessity. harry’s story is tragic, as he is forced to betray his core beliefs when confronted by forces beyond his control. father rice experienced an important ideological evolution from anti-communist activist to radical reformer marching with dr. martin luther king. some books present people as ideological 146 monoliths that never deviate from their life paths; hoerr succeeds in presenting a more nuanced, and therefore more accurate, description of the ways in which politics can change a person’s views. these changes can be both positive and negative, a point brought home in each case portrayed here. another important theme is the power of guilt by association and the effect it can have on civil liberties. tom’s story shows the effects of being associated with a communist organization and the pall it can cast over one’s life for years. in many ways, tom’s is the most sympathetic story in the book because he deserved his fate the least. tom’s story was also the most intimate because hoerr was able to conduct several interviews with him. hoerr’s book will interest anyone curious about labor movements, mccarthyism, or the local history of pittsburgh. the author’s focus on the city is particularly strong, for the book provides a unique insight into politics and union activism in pittsburgh in the post-world war ii years. andrew p. miller wilkes university pennsylvania elections: statewide contests from 1950–2004. by john j. kennedy. new york: university press of america, 2006. 214 pp., $31.95 cloth, isbn: 0-7618-3278-5 for many years, the best (only?) book on contemporary pennsylvania politics was paul beers’ pennsylvania politics today and yesterday, which was published in 1980. but over the last two years several fine books have appeared to fill the gap in this important field, and among them is this book. kennedy, an associate professor of political science at west chester university and the author of the contemporary pennsylvania legislature, has assembled election statistics for all state-wide general elections in pennsylvania from 1950 to 2004 (n.b. primary election data are not included). the electoral contests include senatorial, gubernatorial, state row offices (lieutenant governor and internal affairs—both of which were removed from direct election by the constitutional changes of 1968—treasurer, auditor general, and attorney general), and presidential. each office is presented in its own chapter with the exception of the row offices, which are discussed in a single chapter. there is 147 also an introductory chapter that discusses pennsylvania’s political history and geography. within the chapters, the author discusses each election separately, providing information about the major parties’ candidates (the author chose not to include any third or minor party candidates in his analysis), their personal and political backgrounds, the major issues in the race, significant issues that were addressed, and any important event that influenced the outcome of the race. election descriptions vary in length from a paragraph or two to several pages. most are informative at a basic level while several are fairly detailed, e.g. the 1980 specter– flaherty and 1991 wofford–thornburgh senatorial races, and the 1962 scranton–dillworth gubernatorial election. while there is much useful information contained in its pages, the book lacks an overarching central thesis. the author appears to have chosen to present the data and to allow it to speak for itself, the individual election analyses notwithstanding. since the author never presents the research as theoretically driven, it is perhaps unfair to criticize it this way; however, the work would have been stronger had the author identified a general trend or explanatory factor that would have tied many of the elections together. i also question the author’s decision to present the electoral data as a percentage of the two-party vote as opposed to each party’s percentage of the total vote cast in an election. the author reasoned that because third parties had not generally received significant numbers of votes, it was easier to understand an election’s outcome by contrasting just the two-party vote. though individual third parties may indeed frequently receive few votes, removing all third party totals in an election inflates, however so slightly, the totals for the two major parties, which distorts whatever trend analysis a person may want to undertake. finally, the author’s choices in locating some counties in geographic clusters—southeastern, southwestern, northeastern, and central—raised a few questions in my mind. of greatest concern was the placement of bradford, susquehanna, wayne, pike, sullivan, wyoming, and schuylkill counties into the central region rather than the northeastern region. most residents of those counties would likely consider themselves residents of the northeast. in addition, the geographic division would have benefited from a fifth region: a northwestern cluster that would have made the central region more homogeneous. one of the interesting things about a 148 geographically based presentation of electoral politics in the state is that the regional divisions of the last half of the 20th century may be losing whatever explanatory power they may have had. with the change in voting behavior in the southeastern suburban counties, the changing character of the populations in the pocono counties and the transition in the south central counties as they fast become bedroom communities for the baltimore–washington area, a new set of regions may be necessary. despite my reservations, kennedy’s work contributes to our understanding of electoral politics in pennsylvania. along with jack m. treadway’s elections in pennsylvania, students and scholars alike have two fine resources. thomas j. baldino wilkes university the people of this generation: the rise and fall of the new left in philadelphia. by paul lyons. philadelphia: university of pennsylvania press, 2003. 288 pp., $42.50 cloth, isbn: 0-81223715-3 this book is must reading for anyone interested in understanding the rise, accomplishments, challenges, and demise of the new left. it is also a highly instructive book for social scientists and activists who want to understand the nature of coalition building, political movements, and social and political activism. finally, philadelphia history buffs should not miss this important contribution to local folklore and legend. of course, one could always ask the question, why the need for yet another book on the new left and 1960s student activism? after all, the shelves are already filled with books by todd gitlin, james miller, allen matusow, jack whalen and richard flacks, and edward quinn and paul dolan, to name a few. lyons pre-empts that question almost immediately when he asserts on page 2 that “one must examine the social and political movements of the 1960s—what participants call ‘the movement’—in the context of their geographic, political and cultural environments.” it is this local contextual analysis that distinguishes lyons’ book from those that preceded its publication. 149 lyons, a professor of social work at richard stockton college in new jersey, has amassed a wealth of archival information supplemented by in-depth interviews of former student activists, filtering both through his own insightful understandings of what transpired in the 1960s. the result is a richly detailed history of how the new left developed in philadelphia on eight different college campuses and how it interacted, or failed to interact, with other, non-student activist organizations such as the american friends service committee. thus, the contextual rooting is conducted on two levels. the macro level is the city of philadelphia, an older, de-industrializing city that was losing population and jobs, undergoing racial change, and coming under the political reign of frank rizzo, police chief turned mayor who epitomized the conservative white backlash movement that gripped many cities and, ultimately, the nation’s politics in the mid-to-late 1960s. while these themes ring familiar for many cities, philadelphia was distinguished by its quaker heritage, which has influenced organizational development and race relations in the city. on the micro level, lyons introduces a contextual examination by focusing on four different types of college campus—catholic (lasalle, villanova, and st. joseph’s universities), quaker (bryn mawr, swarthmore, and haverford colleges), elite private (university of pennsylvania), and working class public (temple university). rising from the ashes of the u.s. communist party’s collapse and the subsequent soviet invasion of hungary in 1956, the new left was heavily influenced, in its early stages, by the black-led civil rights movement in the american south. initially antiideological and heavily participatory, the new left would eventually encounter severe fissures that prematurely ended this once vibrant, promise-filled movement. the increasing militancy of the civil rights movement, which, in part, shifted from a prointegrationist, non-violent stance to a black power, pro-nationalist, “by any means necessary” position; the urban riots and the subsequent hard line police response; the rise of identity politics (e.g. black power, feminism); and the cultural revolution of “drugs, sex, and rock and roll” that swept young americans, all chipped away at the foundations of the new left in philadelphia as it did elsewhere. 150 lyons attempts to highlight these struggles by focusing primarily on two organizations: philadelphia resistance, the antiwar organization; and people for human rights, the anti-racist organization. in many ways, these two organizations epitomize the early hopeful years of the new left and its later, more seriously troubled years. they also underscore the difficulties of political mobilization on any large scale. after taking the reader on a tour of the eight college campuses and the new left organizations they spawned (e.g. sds economic research and action project at swarthmore; penn rights council and students opposed to germ warfare-stop-at university of pennsylvania; and conscience at temple university), lyons shifts his focus to the two pivotal organizations, the philadelphia resistance (pr) and people for human rights (phr), to demonstrate the impact of the tumultuous 1960s on the new left. growing out of the combined anti-war efforts at the various college campuses and aided by the quaker organizational infrastructure, pr emerged in 1967, focusing its energies largely around anti-war activities such as draft counseling and demonstrations. phr, on the other hand, emerged from the growing militancy of the civil rights movement, taking as its mantra a heavy anti-racist position. according to lyons, both organizations flirted with third world and maoist ideologies, a growing trend within some new left circles. adopting the rhetoric of liberation strategies and, in some cases, their tactics, this development alienated many potential supporters. pr, however, because of its reliance on and influence by the quaker infrastructure and its focus on anti-war activities, was less culpable, maintaining a “moral high ground” (224). despite this more palatable stance, pr, like phr, eventually imploded, mimicking the experience of the new left in general. lyons touches upon many interesting themes in the book such as the a-historicity of the new left; the influence of the quaker tradition on new left organizing; the role of class and spiritual context and mission in shaping students’ world views and approach to activism and organizing; and the impact of identity politics, black nationalism, and the cultural revolution on the new left. however, these themes are left largely undeveloped. for example, the comparison between pr and phr, which contains many of these themes, never attains a satisfactory resolution. lyons suggests that both organizations were attracted by third world revolutionary 151 struggles but he does not really explain why pr did not go as far in embracing them as did phr and other new left organizations. the quaker influence and the focus on anti-war activities that characterized pr are surface reasons that need much more exploration. lyons attempts to give the reader a thick description of new left activities while also exploring numerous themes. this is not an easy task and, as is often the case, the details tend to crowd out larger analysis. nonetheless, through the excavation of such rich details, lyons has brought the reader into the day, the moment, and the experience of the 1960s new left, which is a rare treat. barbara ferman temple university ruling suburbia: john j. mcclure and the republican machine in delaware county, pennsylvania. by john m. mclarnon iii. newark, de: university of delaware press, 2003. 352 pp., $60.00 cloth, isbn: 0-87413-814-0 in 2006, the politics in suburban philadelphia counties are changing as democrats challenge republicans for control of elective offices representing those areas. recent democratic candidates for president, congress, governor, the state legislature, and county and municipal governments have won the majority of votes or at least competed in close elections with republican winners. voting and voter registration document the shifting identities of the suburban voters. current democratic success in the suburbs is remarkable because of the firm grip republicans historically have had on voter loyalties there. southeastern pennsylvania’s five counties (bucks, montgomery, chester, delaware, and philadelphia) were solid republican areas from the late 1800s through world war ii. philadelphia broke republican control during the reform movement in the late 1940s and early 1950s and became home to a powerful democratic organization, but the suburban counties remained under the control of the county republican political machines. john mclarnon’s ruling suburbia provides a fair, clear-eyed, and colorful view of the power of the mcclure family in delaware county. william mcclure and his son, john, were the “bosses” controlling the republican machine from 1875 until 1965. 152 mclarnon’s focus is on the life and times of john mcclure who ran the county from 1907 to 1965. mclarnon portrait and analysis of john mcclure as “boss” in the suburbs expands our understanding of this type of political leadership beyond what we know from studies of large cities. mcclarnon is a talented story teller who weaves details about places, people and events into an entertaining account of a political master at work. while presenting the history, he also provides the needed connections to theories of machine success and decline, as well as comparisons to other political bosses featured in studies of large central cities. for example, mcclarnon writes, “mcclure was never involved in the crimes on the order of the police beatings and kidnappings in tom pendergast’s kansas city. he used but never allied himself with organized crime the way that pat nash and ed kelly had done with the capone mob in chicago” (240). like george washington plunkitt of new york’s tammany hall machine, mcclure’s long tenure as boss was founded on his keen ability to “read and react to the needs of the electorate” (12) as well as to his willingness to use “loyalty, patronage, macing, bigotry, greed and innate political savvy to maintain his power” (239). and like the philadelphia electorate that lincoln steffens described in his the shame of cities, the voters of delaware county did not care so much “for honest, democratic government” (12), and so they repeatedly returned mcclure’s republicans to office. ruling suburbia is an excellent work of political history with an expansive list of references and extensive notes. readers interested in pennsylvania politics, especially in the southeastern region of the state, and in the practice of machine politics suburbanstyle will find mcclarnon’s ruling suburbia most useful. craig m. wheeland villanova university a city transformed: redevelopment, race, and suburbanization in lancaster, pennsylvania 1940–1980. by david schuyler. university park, pa: pennsylvania state university press, 2004. 288 pp., $74.00 cloth, isbn: 0-271-02207-8; $20.95 paper, isbn: 0-27102208-6 153 the story of lancaster, pennsylvania, is the story of most medium-sized cities from the atlantic ocean to the great midwest. born of necessary density, these pedestrian cities thrived prior to the automobile and then struggled to remain relevant throughout the 20th century. however, if this were the sole dilemma confronting community development policy in the eastern united states since 1940, cities most likely would have found the elixir that guaranteed survival and shared it amongst themselves. but the struggle for survival that lancaster and other cities of its kind faced was the result of multiple aggravating factors: consumers’ desire for a plot of land with a home, increasing racial tension and the white flight that accompanied it, an abundance of roads to complement the abundance of vehicles, and the general sense that living in the city was not where one’s future would shine brightest. at the conclusion of world war ii, those americans who had failed to heed the credo, “go west,” made their own mantra: move out of the city. as cities began to decline, governments at every level intervened. what schuyler fails to emphasize, however, is that the field of community development is closely tied to community organizing: citizens, feeling disenfranchised, rally together to make their needs known. ignoring this (and other) key components of a broader neighborhood revitalization strategy make for a weak, onedimensional analysis of even the most stimulating topic. lancaster, pennsylvania, is not particularly interesting as a subject; and david schuyler’s a city transformed paints a shallow picture of what might have been a lively discussion of future plans for lancaster in 1940. schuyler’s over-reliance on newspaper accounts and overemphasis on the mayor’s platforms for neighborhood revitalization make for dry, why-should-i-care reading. why would someone living outside of the city of lancaster care if the greater lancaster metropolitan area decays into a modern-day pompeii? communities are more than bricks and mortar, shopping centers and freeways, politicians and town hall meetings. people make choices every day that affect a city’s sustainability: where to live, work, eat, shop; where to educate their children; and most important, whether to become involved in the dialogue that shapes their hometowns. schuyler makes no attempt to interview lancaster’s residents from that time, to understand the reasons for 154 suburban flight, or to determine if the pre-1940s sense of lancaster’s future was rosy or expectant of inevitable decline. little attention is paid to the sociology of returning veterans of world war ii or how their choices affected lancaster. by contrast, entirely too much time is devoted to local forms of government. the policy decisions made by the federal and state governments regarding urban areas from 1930-1960 guaranteed the fate of the vast majority of america’s older cities, and a council meeting with the newly elected mayor of lancaster in 1962 could do little to alter that force. schuyler missed a prime opportunity to make his book moderately interesting by not interviewing descendants of the residents of barney google row. what had become of these families? had the strong social bonds they built in what policymakers referred to as “a ghetto” been more significant than a newer dwelling place? or did their displacement not fundamentally alter the patterns of their lives, which would then justify the city’s decisions not only on moral grounds (helping those in need), but also on economic ones (higher tax base, more opportunity for infrastructure)? did these people merely show up at the town hall meetings, dutifully reported by the lancaster intelligencer journal? schuyler also commits another grave sin of omission by focusing his analysis too narrowly. he fails to compare lancaster with similar pennsylvania cities (wilkes-barre, york, and harrisburg come to mind) or cities in upstate new york that might offer clues as to why lancaster was “less transformed.” based on schuyler’s book, a city transformed ultimately is a misnomer for lancaster. it never underwent a transformation, but rather was tinkered with by a revolving door of elected officials, to the interest of the local press alone. michael butchko senior advisor, public policy and legislative affairs neighborhood reinvestment corporation devastation and renewal: an environmental history of pittsburgh and its region. edited by joel a. tarr. pittsburgh, pa: university of pittsburgh press, 2004. 296 pp., $32.00 cloth, isbn 0-8229-4156-2; $24.95 paper, isbn 0-8229-5892-9 155 in the late 1960s, i was a graduate student at the university of pittsburgh and lived in the squirrel hill neighborhood adjacent to beautiful schenley park. the drive each morning through the park to oakland, the university’s neighborhood, was idyllic. as a transplanted philadelphian, i often reflected during the short drive on the dire warnings from family and friends about the inhospitable milieu of the city “out west.” although i quickly came to admire this gritty city, the warnings were not without foundation. some mornings, when the wind blew across squirrel hill from the jones and laughlin plant, there would be a thin veneer of red dust on the car. i wondered what its color was in my lungs. each year, after the snow thaw and spring rains, my wife and i would develop severe intestinal discomfort, which we would attribute to the drinking water. we joked that it gave new meaning to the concept “spring cleaning.” i mention these recollections because many allegheny county citizens tell similar personal stories. for these citizens, devastation and renewal: an environmental history of pittsburgh and its region is required reading, for it places in an historical context the individual experiences of urbanites living in a compromised environment. for policy makers and academics, joel a. tarr, the richard s. caliguiri professor of urban and environmental policy at carnegie mellon university, and his colleagues have chronicled the impact on air, water, and land when urban regimes confront the conflicting demands of commercial, industrial, and recreational uses of an ecosystem. in doing so, the authors both reinforce and question conclusions found in the policy literature on identifying and implementing the elusive public interest. the introductory chapter by tarr and edward k. muller traces the abuse of the natural landscape by the increasing scale and rapacity of industrial capitalism. the advantages of pittsburgh’s environment were discovered early in the nation’s history: the confluence of three navigable rivers, nearby rich veins of coal, and awe-inspiring hills and valleys. the rivers, especially the westward flowing ohio, made the city an early commercial gateway to an undeveloped continent. coal, and its derivative coke, fueled the city’s transformation to an industrial titan. the hills, too steep for farming, became precarious residential locations above the rivers’ floodplains to house the expanding population. eventually the rivers became polluted, the air smoky, and the valleys slag disposal 156 sites. at the same time, other forces were at work to improve these deleterious environmental consequences and eventually to plan a renaissance city. the story of how this was accomplished, including who benefited and who bore the costs, is the focus of this work. much of this conflict focused on the city’s most commanding natural landmark, its three rivers and their tributaries. so it is appropriate that a trilogy of articles explores the use and abuse of the allegheny, the monongahela and the ohio rivers. in his article “river city,” muller provides an overview of the symbiotic relationship between pittsburghers and their rivers over time. rivers sustained the commercial, residential, and industrial activity, yet were acted upon when flows were altered, the aquatic composition degraded, and the banks developed. results were sometimes catastrophic. the rivers’ pollution drove the death toll from typhoid fever to the highest in the nation. tarr and terry yosie examine the political conflicts over this critical problem of the city’s water supply and sewage treatment. they explain that the urban regime provided high quality drinking water in the first decade of the twentieth century, which reduced the typhoid fever rate to the national average, but the treatment of wastewater was not completed for another half-century. the delay was caused in part by the political rivalry of local governments and in part by the professional competition between public health physicians and sanitary engineers. the typhoid bacterium was not the only pollutant in the water. nicholas casner documents in his article that during the 1920s acid mine drainage resulted in 2.5 million tons of sulfuric acid being dumped annually into the ohio river at pittsburgh. this pollution, originally accepted as a cost for economic prosperity, soon created unacceptable trade offs such as acidic tasting water, corroded locomotive boilers, and leaky home plumbing. the political conflict among interested parties resulted in highly controversial court decisions supporting the polluters. while water treatment was eventually used to neutralize the acids, mine drainage remains a problem throughout pennsylvania. the second triad of articles examines the most visible of the city’s previous pollution problems: its smoky air. angela gugliotta offers a cultural history of smoke as a prosperity symbol to the masses, physical nuisance to the middle class, and costly 157 impediment to post-war economic diversification for the financial elite. some cataclysmic events, such as the deadly donora air pollution disaster in 1948, explored in an article by lynne page snyder, made public the connection between pollution, in this case from a zinc plant, and public health. the symbolic use of this event by pollution control advocates helped initiate limited federal proposals. however, the most enduring conflicts over smoke control took place at the city and county levels, as reported in the article by tarr and sherie r. mershon. their analysis makes clear that the antismoke coalition pressure for policy reform was a necessary but not sufficient condition for clean air. equally important were the transition from coal to gas in domestic furnaces, the change from steam to diesel locomotives, and eventually the deindustrialization of the region. both the urban regime and community groups could find some common ground to support remedial action on water and air pollution since contaminants ignored, for the most part, class and political divisions. this was not the case with landscape desecration, as explained in a study by andrew s. mcelwaine. elites disagreed over the control and use of the land and tensions between the urban regime and neighborhood organizations were never resolved because of a lack of direct communication between well-meaning civic reformers and local-oriented ward politicians. consequently, urban plans, such as the one for the nine mile run valley by frederick law olmstead, jr., were never implemented. nine mile run valley became a slagheap instead of a park. the anthology ends with an analysis by samuel p. hays that is both a reminiscence of his personal participation in local environmental action and a comparative cultural analysis of regional environmental values. he concludes that there is little support for an environmental culture in a region of “rustbelt” standards emphasizing economic development. environmental concerns lack a local voice because citizen organizations are disorganized, rely on business contributions, and have ceded initiative to the federal government. the mass media report on the rehabilitated environment as a crucial recreational attraction for professionals in the “new economy” rather than as an intrinsic value to preserve. educational institutions have not developed adequate environmental programs for a variety of reasons specific to their missions and resources. hays’ analysis is an appropriate ending, for 158 he questions past achievements while at the same time calling for a renewed commitment to an environmental ethic. thomas c. brogan albright college breaking the backcountry: the seven years’ war in virginia and pennsylvania, 1754–1765. by matthew c. ward. pittsburgh, pa: university of pittsburgh press, 2003. 360 pp., $34.95 cloth, isbn: 0-8229-4214-3; $21.95 paper, isbn: 0-8229-5865-1 standard studies of the seven years’ war tend to focus on its effect on new england or on the dramatic struggle for canada, but the war’s impact on the virginia– pennsylvania backcountry and on native americans has largely been overlooked. in this clearly written and logically organized book, matthew c. ward, a lecturer in the department of history at the university of dundee, scotland, addresses this gap. when france and britain entered what would become a global war over the ohio valley fur trade, the french had little trouble persuading native american trading partners to join them and mount raids on civilian targets because the natives had many grievances. eastern delawares resented the advance of settlement and the loss of their lands in the infamous walking purchase, and the ohio valley tribes feared that their lands would be next. beginning in 1754, native american raids emptied the backcountry of settlement in some areas; destroyed plantations, livestock, and crops; and disrupted the regional economy because city merchants could not collect debts from rural customers who had lost everything. casualties were substantial; 1% of the total population of both colonies (4% of the backcountry population) was killed or captured, figures comparable to losses in america’s revolutionary and civil wars. ward argues that the seven years’ war changed the nature of colonial life in four ways. it increased the power and activities of colonial governments that, for the first time, were compelled to raise and provision an army. in addition, it demonstrated the individualistic nature of the backcountry and its separation, geographically and mentally, from eastern politics and society. it also altered irrevocably the relationship between great britain and 159 the colonists. britain resented the latter’s reluctance to fight; colonists observed the blunders of inept leaders such as edward braddock and sir john st. clair and took on new confidence in their own abilities. resentment against the british, who did not seem to appreciate the colonists’ war contributions, and who tried to protect native americans by banning white settlement beyond the appalachians, would smolder until the imperial crisis, when it pushed virginia and pennsylvania to join their new england brethren in rebellion. finally, the war left colonists with permanent feelings of hatred toward all native americans, as shown by the paxton boys’ massacre of a group of peaceful conestoga in pennsylvania and a similar but lesser-known assault by the “augusta boys” in virginia. the war also changed the way native americans fought. besides traditional methods of seizing captives and booty, they added european-style tactics, attacking military outposts and disrupting supply and communication lines. most horrifying to colonists and soldiers alike was their adoption of psychological warfare. raiders left behind mutilated women’s and children’s bodies, heads of decapitated victims displayed on posts, and body parts roasting over fires to demoralize and terrify their enemies. backcountry residents were fiercely individualistic with little deference toward the local elite, whom they considered merely their equals. there were no community institutions, other than taverns, where people came together. thus, justices of the peace, in order to retain power, shielded locals and bowed to their wishes rather than enforce unpopular laws in support of the war. most backcountry men were reluctant soldiers, and military records show that they lacked both firearms and the ability to use them. when their homes were threatened, they preferred to protect their personal property rather than join an army out of a larger sense of duty. not that there was much of an army to join; in 1754 virginia militias were social organizations, and in quaker-dominated pennsylvania, militias did not exist. raising troops was even more problematic because of squabbling among the governors and assemblies, especially in pennsylvania where political leaders fell into fiercely pro and antiproprietor factions. the only way to inspire men to join the army was to offer substantial bounties, and the results were not felicitous. in virginia, provincial forces mainly consisted of convicts and vagrants; in pennsylvania, indentured servants. early on, desertion 160 and insubordination were common. officers were unskilled, elected by popularity rather than ability, and discipline was lax. by 1757, colonial forces had improved dramatically, though british regulars “still balked at their disorder when serving alongside them” (121). british policies following the expulsion of the french from canada and the ohio valley in 1760 drove native americans to resume hostilities just a few years later. weary of pouring money into north america, the british adopted a parsimonious attitude, refusing to give native americans the traditional gifts and trade goods they expected from their new trading partners. they also reneged on pledges to abandon their ohio valley forts after the french defeat. despite a royal proclamation banning european settlement west of the alleghenies, colonists saw the region as up for grabs—a just reward for wartime service. the result was the socalled pontiac’s rebellion (1763–1765), in which incensed natives hit the backcountry with the same intensity as in the earlier conflict. to the native americans, this response was perfectly reasonable since the british had not behaved honorably, but backcountry residents understandably did not share this view. i found much to praise and little to quarrel with in this book. i would have appreciated some additional detail in the maps, and i would like to know more about the frontiersmen’s lack of firearms. ward cites michael bellesille’s controversial work on gun ownership uncritically, and he does not address the common perception that backcountry people needed firearms to survive. on the other hand, ward ably explains life in the backcountry, the demographics of provincial armies (including a comparison of virginia, pennsylvania, and massachusetts soldiers), the intricacies of native american diplomacy, the politics of colonial government, and military actions in the ohio valley. scholars interested in rural life, military and social history, and native american studies should welcome this book. diane wenger wilkes university microsoft word volume15.doc commonwealth: a journal of political science  volume 15, number 2  september 2009  2009 ppsa/lorl, pa house of reps. issn 0890-2410 the removal of carl romanelli from pennsylvania’s 2006 u.s. senate ballot blyden potts1 shippensburg university this article is a case study of the ballot qualification challenge brought by the pennsylvania democratic party against carl romanelli, the green party candidate for u.s. senate in 2006. the study argues that the state’s legal process for challenging signatures on ballot access petitions imposes a greater burden on independent and minor party candidates than the letter of the law suggests; that pennsylvania signature thresholds are arbitrary and unjust; and that the signature challenge process is motivated more by partisan political considerations than by a genuine public interest in preventing signature fraud. the study concludes that romanelli may have qualified for a place on the ballot had the standard applied to him been that suggested by the ballot access law without the various criteria for disqualifying signatures added by his partisan opposition, legal precedents, the court-ordered review process, and the state’s database of registered voters. arl romanelli was not the first candidate to have his initial qualification for the ballot in pennsylvania overturned through a court challenge, but his 2006 u.s. senate campaign was notable for several reasons. first, romanelli was a potential “spoiler” candidate in a race that had attracted national attention. second, even though he faced the highest signature hurdle for ballot access ever imposed on a candidate by pennsylvania electoral law, he nonetheless submitted more signatures than any candidate in the state’s history. the most remarkable aspect of romanelli’s campaign, though, is that while the number of signatures from registered pennsylvania voters signing his petition in good faith likely exceeded the legal threshold of 67,070 names, the democratic party nevertheless succeeded in having romanelli removed from the ballot. the process by which many of his petition signatures were challenged and invalidated shows that the actual barriers to ballot access in pennsylvania for independent and minor party candidates are far greater than even pennsylvania’s restrictive ballot access statute c 38 the removal of carl romanelli from pennsylvania’s 2006 u.s. senate ballot suggests. romanelli’s case thus calls into question whether independent and minor party candidates have a real opportunity to get on the ballot in pennsylvania if one of the major parties wishes to thwart their access. ballot access the account of ballot access presented here presupposes that the number of candidates on the ballot has a generally curvilinear impact on the quality of election outcomes. as a general principle, having more candidates on the ballot increases the odds that the “best” candidate in a particular race will win because each additional candidate has a chance of being an improvement over the best option already in the pool. this tendency is subject to diminishing returns, however, inasmuch as the likelihood of an added candidate being an improvement tends to be inversely proportional to the number of choices already available.2 having more candidates on the ballot also gives representation to a greater range of ideas and issue positions. countering these probable benefits is the fact that each added candidate is likely to increase the time, energy, and money spent on the campaigns by the media and by voters evaluating the candidates. hypothetically, as the number of candidates increases, some point eventually is reached where benefit relative to costs is maximized, after which the transaction costs begin substantially to outweigh the potential gains. additional candidates beyond this optimal number constitute “ballot clutter.” because the costs and benefits defining the conceptual curve are highly variable and subjective, there can be no simple or objective determination of an ideal number of candidates in an election; but it seems likely that elections with three or four candidates would often be an improvement over twocandidate elections.3 unfortunately, few political races in pennsylvania offer more than two choices. this condition suggests that current state ballot access requirements deprive pennsylvania voters of an optimal number of ballot choices.4 independent and minor party voters suffer in another, more direct way. where ballot access is restricted to the two major parties and the election process has been largely co-opted by party primaries, voters have no candidates that truly represent them. accordingly, they are reduced to being mere swing voters. moreover, where one party or the other dominates, as in many pennsylvania legislative districts, blyden potts 39 independent and minor party voters are essentially disenfranchised because there is no viable alternative toward which to “swing” one’s vote.5 for this large minority of pennsylvania voters, having a meaningful vote depends upon the ability of independent and minor party candidates to obtain ballot access.6 in jenness v. fortson (1971), the u.s. supreme court recognized “an important state interest in requiring some preliminary showing of a significant modicum of support” before including a candidate’s name on the ballot. that court decision and others building upon it established “modicum of support” as the threshold-defining principle in setting ballot access rules. there is consensus that in principle a candidate showing a modicum of support must be included on the ballot, whereas one failing to do so may be excluded. what constitutes a “modicum of support” has been much debated, however, both in enacting ballot access legislation and in deciding ballot access disputes (see, e.g., aclu 2006; maryland green party et al. v. maryland board of elections et al. 2003; rogers et al. v. corbett et al. 2006; rogers et al. v. cortes 2006; and winger 2006a). under pennsylvania law, the ballot access standard applied to independent candidates and minor political parties differs from the one applied to major parties. republican and democratic candidates must obtain a fixed number of signatures from registered voters of their own party within a three-week period to appear on their party’s primary ballot. they must then win their party primary by obtaining a plurality of votes to be placed on the general election ballot. the thresholds for statewide offices are either 1,000 or 2,000 signatures, depending upon the office. by contrast, the standard for minor parties requires that: the number of qualified electors of the electoral district signing such nomination papers shall be at least equal to two per centum of the largest entire vote cast for any officer, except a judge of a court of record, elected at the last preceding election in said electoral district for which said nomination papers are to be filed, and shall be not less than the number of signers required for nomination petitions for party candidates for the same office [pennsylvania election code, §2911(b)]. in practice, this law typically sets a threshold somewhere between 20,000 and 40,000 signatures; but because bob casey jr. got 3,353,489 votes in the 2004 state treasurer’s election, the threshold or “modicum 40 the removal of carl romanelli from pennsylvania’s 2006 u.s. senate ballot of support” for statewide candidates was 67,070 signatures in 2006. two points should be emphasized regarding this threshold. first, the precise threshold fluctuates greatly from year to year because it is dependent upon the popularity of candidates from other parties who ran in prior election cycles. second, the number of signatures required for independent and minor party candidates is typically 12 to 20 times greater than that required for republicans and democrats. in 2006, it was over 30 times greater. as unfair as pennsylvania’s ballot access rules are on paper, they are worse in practice. if having a “modicum of support” were the true criterion by which candidates are assessed for ballot access, romanelli’s name would likely have appeared on the 2006 ballot. the barrier he faced—and other candidates continue to face—was far greater than the ostensible “modicum of support” principle behind the state election code. the 2006 election the 2006 u.s. senate contest in pennsylvania provided a special opportunity for green party candidate carl romanelli. the two-term incumbent, rick santorum, was a prominent conservative republican whose articulation of right-wing moral positions made him a favorite with moral conservatives nationwide but placed him at the top of the democrats’ “hit list.” bob casey jr., the democratic challenger and son of a popular former governor, was only slightly less morally conservative but he had a much milder disposition. pundits foresaw a competitive race with santorum expected to close an early gap in the polls as the election drew nearer. these elements put a national spotlight on the race, which romanelli entered as a potential spoiler. minor party candidates who are neither wealthy nor famous have a difficult time attracting media coverage, but thanks to the attention given to this particular race, romanelli garnered considerable press interest while drawing financial support from republicans who calculated that he would steal votes from casey, thereby enhancing santorum’s chances. an eloquent speaker and self-described “fireball,” romanelli frequently portrayed himself as the “little guy” standing up to democratic bullies, and he spoke assuredly of his intent to get on the ballot and run a competitive campaign. along with marakay rogers, the green party nominee for governor, romanelli headed a slate that blyden potts 41 included four candidates for the u.s. house of representatives, one for the pennsylvania state senate, and a dozen for the pennsylvania house of representatives (green party of pennsylvania 2007). there were 17,762 registered green voters in pennsylvania by november 2006, making the green party the fourth largest and fastest growing party in the state (bcel 2006b). romanelli advocated the immediate withdrawal of american forces from the war in iraq, an end to what he regarded as imperialist u.s. foreign policy, enactment of a single-payer health care system for all americans, defense of women’s reproductive rights, and extension of the right to marry to gays and lesbians. each of these issues was important to some portion of pennsylvania’s voters. after chuck pennachio lost in the democratic primary, romanelli was the only senate candidate representing any of these issue positions. both casey and santorum supported american involvement in the iraqi war, and both were “pro-life” foes of gay marriage who also opposed universal health care. romanelli’s position on the iraqi war was particularly popular in an election cycle where many races were seen as referenda on the war. on the strength of these otherwise unrepresented issue constituencies, romanelli may have drawn more than 10% of the vote had he remained on the ballot. it is therefore quite plausible that he could have been an effective spoiler. indeed, it is conceivable that he could have won the election had he been included in the candidate debates. to demonstrate the necessary “modicum of support,” the party had to circulate nomination papers on which would be entered the signatures of registered pennsylvania voters who supported inclusion of their candidates’ names on the november ballot. the names of candidates for various offices were typically “stacked” on the same form, with romanelli, rogers, and one or more legislative candidates and their respective offices on the same sheet. each sheet had space for up to 60 signatures. signers were required to sign and date their signature and provide their address. they also were expected to print their names so that their identity as registered voters could be validated. the circulation process began on march 8 and continued through august 1. romanelli and green party leaders knew that the democratic party would challenge their submitted signatures; and based on past experience they calculated that more than 100,000 signatures might be needed to survive a democratic challenge, even though the formal number of signatures needed to get on the ballot was 67,070.7 by late may, projections suggested that green volunteers would get only 25,000 to 42 the removal of carl romanelli from pennsylvania’s 2006 u.s. senate ballot 30,000 signatures. about that time, romanelli began to receive a large number of campaign contributions, which ultimately totaled over $158,000 for the luzerne county green party and $15,000 for carl romanelli for u.s. senate (federal election commission 2007). nearly all the money came from supporters of conservative causes presumably motivated not by genuine support for green party ideals but rather by a desire to boost a potential spoiler so as to help the conservative santorum (kiel 2006). indeed, almost half of the contributions came from out of state. romanelli used the money to hire contractors who in turn hired nomination paper circulators. hired circulators paid on a per-signature basis have an incentive to work hastily, which may lead to sloppiness and even fraud if the contractors are unscrupulous. using contractors and circulators exposed romanelli to legitimate skepticism about the validity of the signatures obtained on his behalf, but without the help of these workers, romanelli and the other green party candidates could not have exceeded the 67,070 signature threshold. on august 1, the green party of pennsylvania submitted to the bureau of commissions, elections, and legislation (bcel) a total of 3,698 pages8 of nomination papers with what would later be determined to be 99,965 signatures, several thousand of which had been flagged as invalid by romanelli’s own reviewers. bcel staff reviewed the pages for face validity, ensuring that required information had been included, that each line contained a signature, and that each signer had given a pennsylvania address. they stopped reviewing once the tally of valid signatures exceeded 67,070 by a modest margin. romanelli and all the other green candidates were thus on the ballot, pending a probable challenge by the democrats. the signature challenge in early august, pittsburgh attorney william r. caroselli and other democrats filed suit in pennsylvania’s commonwealth court challenging the nomination papers of green party candidates marakay rogers, christina valente, and carl romanelli and asking the court to remove their names from the ballot (petition to set aside 2006). challenges were raised by other objectors to seven independent and minor party candidates for congress and the pennsylvania general blyden potts 43 assembly, including green party candidate titus north in the state’s 14th congressional district.9 under pennsylvania law, a candidate who loses a signature challenge may be forced to pay court costs as well as the opposition’s legal fees. ralph nader had been assessed over $80,000 in such penalties after his failed pennsylvania ballot access effort in 2004 (brown 2007, winger 2006b). this penalty is a deterrent few candidates are willing to risk unless they are wealthy or certain of winning a signature challenge. the major parties, for which this liability would be trivial, use it as a threat to drive otherwise qualified independent and minor party candidates off the ballot. green party candidates rogers and valente felt compelled to withdraw their nomination papers, as did most of the other candidates who had been challenged. only north and romanelli chose to fight the democrats despite the risk (bcel 2006a). media the legal challenge to romanelli’s signatures was backed by a media campaign by the democratic party of pennsylvania implying that romanelli’s signature collection effort had been fraudulent. democrats said his nomination paper showed a “pattern of forged and fictitious signatures” and “impropriety” on the part of the circulators (petition to set aside 2006). democratic press releases were rife with misinformation. the democrats, particularly party chairman t.j. rooney and party spokesperson abe amorós, falsely claimed that: (1) the green party had lied about submitting 95,000 to 100,000 signatures when it had submitted only “approximately 85,000,” (2) the green party had engaged in “rampant fraud,” (3) the signature collection was “the most deceitful and fraudulent exercise ever perpetrated” on the commonwealth court, and (4) thousands of names had been “created at random then randomly assigned either existent or non-existent addresses” (amorós 2006). the democrats also gained a great deal of publicity from rooney’s reference to phony names (e.g., mickey mouse) that appeared in the nomination paper, suggesting that there were many fictitious signatures even though their own petition to the court documented only two dozen allegedly fake names, a few of which were later shown to belong to valid voters who shared a celebrity name. given the propensity of some people to sign a silly or lewd name as a joke, it is almost inevitable that in any large collection of public signatures some tiny fraction will be bogus. rooney also advanced the unlikely contention that romanelli was actually a 44 the removal of carl romanelli from pennsylvania’s 2006 u.s. senate ballot “puppet candidate created” by the santorum campaign (amorós 2006, fudge report 2006, petition to set aside 2006). the democrats’ defamation of romanelli largely succeeded because while the media readily relayed the allegations of democratic party press releases, they mostly ignored green party statements delivered to them rebutting democratic allegations. the major newspapers in philadelphia and pittsburgh published allegations that as many as 70,000 of the collected signatures were “forgeries, false signatures, and voter fraud” (barnes 2006). none of the media appeared to have investigated these allegations, even though the filed nomination papers were open to public inspection. media complacency and outright bias in favor of the major parties is another means by which ballot access is effectively restricted. types of challenges the signature challenges consisted of two types: global challenges in which objectors sought to strike one or more pages of the nomination paper because of alleged problems with the page, its notarization, or its circulator, and line challenges of specific signatures. global challenges were made against 1,782 pages alleged to contain 45,918 signatures. there were 24 bases for such challenges. most involved technical infractions, such as signers failing to fill in one of the lines on the page, notaries pressing the page with their seal rather than with their ink stamp, and nonsignature portions of the form being illegible or containing misspellings. these challenges also alleged forgery or malfeasance on the part of the circulator. some circulators did in fact commit fraud, as evidenced by use of the same hand to complete an entire sheet and a rate of signature validity that was approximately random. yet, the number of such nomination papers was only a couple dozen pages—a fraction of 1% of all those collected—and not remotely near the level of fraud alleged by the democrats (petition to set aside 2006). a small amount of fraud can be expected in almost any large signature effort using paid signature contractors. when circulators are hired off the street, paid on a per signature basis, and subject to little quality control oversight (as is typical of signature contractors), there is going to be sloppiness and, if enough people are involved, some few who are motivated to cheat by forging signatures. line challenges were made independently of whether the page was also subject to global challenge. there were 13 bases for line challenges. these included legal technicalities for disqualification, such as signatures blyden potts 45 and printed names that were not legible, use of a nickname or initial instead of the name used on the voter registration record, use of ditto marks in the address or date field, incomplete address, and incomplete date. they also included substantive violations, such as multiple signatures, not being a resident of the proper county, and having someone other than the signer write the information. other bases for challenge were either substantive or technical, such as the address or signature varying from the one on the voter registration card and signatures alleged not to be cursive. the democrats claimed they made 69,692 line challenges, of which 33,494 belonged to people allegedly “not registered in county” (petition to set aside 2006). there was considerable overlap in the signatures subject to each type of challenge (see in re nomination paper of rogers et al. 2006a). a little room in harrisburg given the availability of the pennsylvania department of state’s recently created statewide uniform registry of electors database of registered voters (sure), and recognizing the strain that signature challenges place on courts, commonwealth court judge james gardner colins issued an order on august 9 that in effect created a new requirement and burden for candidates seeking public office. his order required each side to field teams consisting of counsel and at least nine staff members to work together in conference room 303 of the north office building in harrisburg from 8:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. (or from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m., if necessary) monday through friday (and saturday, if needed) for a period of several weeks, beginning august 14, until the validity of enough signatures was established to determine whether romanelli’s name would appear on the ballot. the process took six weeks. under court supervision, pairs of democrats and greens “diligently and expeditiously” checked the validity of each signature line challenge using the sure electronic database of registered pennsylvania voters. each signature was stipulated as being “valid,” “invalid,” or “disputed” (see in re nomination paper of rogers et al. 2006a). the review of signatures for titus north, whose signatures were a subset of the romanelli signatures, was merged into the romanelli review. this new obligation was far more burdensome for romanelli and the green party than it was for the democrats who typically had a lawyer (shawn gallagher), a database manager, and nine staff members in the room, along with a separate group of lawyers to argue in the courtroom. 46 the removal of carl romanelli from pennsylvania’s 2006 u.s. senate ballot most of these people were either regular staff members or interns who would otherwise have been working in harrisburg, or they were local volunteers. on any given day, most of the democratic staff consisted of people with experience from prior days. by contrast, romanelli had only one lawyer (larry otter) who often could not be in the conference room because he also had to attend to matters in the courtroom. in addition, romanelli struggled to find nine people to staff the computer stations. the green party thus faced a serious challenge, given that its small size precluded the hiring of paid staff or interns. it had to rely instead on volunteers, many of whom had to travel a considerable distance from either philadelphia or pittsburgh. furthermore, the business hours all but precluded working people from participating. when fewer than nine greens were in the room, the democrats sometimes accused romanelli of contempt of court and motioned to have his name summarily removed from the ballot, a tactic the court rejected. to ensure the ongoing presence of sufficient staff, romanelli had to hire several workers from temporary employment agencies. paying them full-time salaries for six weeks essentially added an extra “fee” of several thousand dollars to the ballot access requirements. there were few regulars on the green team, which meant that on any given day several of the greens might be rookies in the review process. because of errors caused by staff inexperience, the signatures of registered pennsylvania voters who should have been recognized as valid signers were erroneously stipulated as invalid, which resulted in the disenfranchisement of people who had signed the green party nomination papers in good faith. the stakes were high. events in the conference room might determine the outcome of the election, garner or deny publicity for the green party, or be crucial to its continued status as a minor party in pennsylvania. the democrats saw romanelli as a candidate who in the absence of republican backing would not have had a modicum of support and whose chief purpose was to spoil the contest by helping to reelect one of the most hated politicians in the country, senator santorum. the greens viewed democrats as hypocrites willing to subvert fundamental democratic values out of naked self-interest. arguments arose frequently, occasionally escalating into shouting matches or other forms of disruptive behavior, including one shoving incident that required the intervention of the court officer and capitol police who removed the combatants from the scene. blyden potts 47 bases for invalidation in light of the “modicum of support” language used in state ballot access law, it might be supposed that the signature challenge was fundamentally a process intended to ensure that the signatures on romanelli’s nomination paper represented real, registered pennsylvania voters who had signed the nomination paper in good faith to support the inclusion of romanelli and the other green party candidates on the ballot. that is what the law and the principle of “modicum of support” imply. that is also the rhetoric the democratic party used—both before the commonwealth court and in the media—to explain why it was challenging the signatures. such a supposition would be naïve. in hundreds, if not thousands, of specific instances in the harrisburg conference room it was evident beyond reasonable doubt that a signature represented a real, registered pennsylvania voter who presumably signed in good faith, but the democrats nevertheless succeeded in having the signature invalidated. on many occasions when confronted with this point, the democrats’ lawyer, shawn gallagher, would reply, “i do not doubt that [x] is a registered pennsylvania voter who signed with intent [to support romanelli], but that’s not our responsibility.”10 the democrats’ interest was in using the letter of the law and past court decisions to strike as many signatures with “facial defects” as they could in hopes of removing romanelli from the ballot. they had no qualms about deliberately disenfranchising voters to achieve their goal. drawing on past legal precedent and supported by the courts, the democrats were able to apply to many signatures a number of narrow legal requirements in such a way as to pervert the spirit of the law. many of these requirements were embodied in a protocol for signature review (2006), which was part of the stipulation process between democrats and greens as directed by the commonwealth court. one of the more egregious of these requirements was that if a scanned image of a signer’s signature was not on file in the electronic sure database, then the petition signature would be summarily invalidated. the commonwealth court later indicated that these signatures should have been marked as “disputed” rather than “invalid” (see in re nomination paper of rogers et al. 2006c). there were at least 162 such instances.11 another onerous requirement was that the address on the form had to match exactly the one listed in the electronic sure database. if the 48 the removal of carl romanelli from pennsylvania’s 2006 u.s. senate ballot digits of the house number were transposed (e.g., 134 for 143), or if there was a missing or extra digit or letter, the signature would be summarily invalidated, regardless of whether the mistake was on the nomination paper, on the voter registration form, or in voter registration data entry. most, if not all, of the entries with minor address inconsistencies likely represented legitimate registered voters. there were 103 instances in the review in which the house number was the only error. in most of these cases the problem appeared to be transposed, missing, or added digits. the city, borough, or town listed on the nomination paper had to match the one in the sure system. the instructions from bcel to circulators of nomination papers indicated that the municipality listed was to be the voter’s political municipality, which is not necessarily the same as the municipality used in their mailing address; but the sure system screen used for the review process showed only the mailing address. at least 42 cases in the review were found to have been erroneously invalidated on this basis. more than a week passed before it was made clear that this kind of error would not be grounds for invalidation, by which time possibly thousands of signatures had been invalidated. even after this problem was discovered, some reviewers continued to void signatures on this basis. at one point, democrats sought to invalidate about 50 signatures on a page from a rural county because the addresses were listed in sure as “hcr” (highway contract route) but the signers had used “rr” (rural route) in their addresses, another name for the same concept. all other aspects of the address and signature matched perfectly. those signatures were ultimately validated after much contention, but a few others of this sort were not. in the review, 18 signatures were improperly invalidated on the erroneous grounds that “rr” was not the same as “hcr.” initially, any signature that used a nickname or substituted an initial for a name was invalidated. later this rule was relaxed so that obvious nicknames like “bob” or “rob” for robert were allowed (although for awhile the democrats challenged the use of “peggy” as a nickname for margaret). signatures using initials for names were always invalidated. there were at least 221 such cases in the reviewed subset. it is not certain what portion of these challenges were noted, but it is likely that at least 400 signatures may have been lost in this way. if portions of the name were added or omitted, the name would be invalidated, even if it obviously referred to the correct person. mary blyden potts 49 colleen mullen, as she was listed in sure, signed the nomination paper as colleen mullen. the address was correct and the signature was a distinctively clear match of handwriting; only the first name of “mary” was missing. yet, the democrats insisted that her signature was invalid because the legal precedent did not permit any discrepancy in name. similarly invalidated were the names of several hundred people, mostly women, who had hyphenated surnames in the sure database but who used only one of their two surnames (e.g., tina smith-jones signing as tina jones) or who had only one surname in sure but signed the nomination paper with a hyphenated compound surname. there were at least 120 instances in which the name of the signer substantially varied from a registered voter in the sure system but the signer nevertheless appeared to be that registered voter. if the reviewed subset had covered all noted lines and if the harrisburg review had been completed, it is likely that there would have been at least 330 substantial name variations with at least 20 hyphenated surnames. had the people involved in these instances tried to vote, they almost certainly would have been allowed to do so. even people who relocate to a new address within the same election district are typically able to vote despite their address change. nonetheless, such signatures for romanelli were invalidated. a more ambiguous situation concerns married women who change their surnames. numerous instances were found of women whose address information, first name, and handwriting matched that in the sure system but whose last name was incorrect. often there would be a male registered voter living at the same address who had the surname that the woman had used in signing the nomination paper. such people apparently are married couples who had registered to vote prior to marrying, but after the marriage the wife failed to update her voter registration to reflect the surname change. chances are these women are able to vote under their maiden name, but their petition signatures were nevertheless invalidated by virtue of the inconsistent surname. the review found 49 cases of women using a maiden name who otherwise appeared to be the correct registered voter. if the reviewed subset had covered all noted lines and if the harrisburg review had been completed, it is likely there would have been at least 130 such cases. the category with the most line challenges was “not registered in county” (code 33), followed by “signature illegible.” many of these challenges were valid, particularly in philadelphia and the surrounding counties where signatures were collected by paid circulators who appear 50 the removal of carl romanelli from pennsylvania’s 2006 u.s. senate ballot to have frequently failed to confirm the county of residence of their signers. at least a large minority of these challenges, however, were cases in which the objectors apparently misread the name of the individual and thus were unable to find them in the sure database. roughly a third of line challenges of this type were found in the sure system and validated by the harrisburg reviewers. many that should have been found were not, thanks to the “expeditious” nature of the search, the inexperience of the reviewers, or problems with the sure database. subsequent review by green volunteers of 6,720 of the invalidated and disputed signatures found 4,729 to belong to identifiable registered voters in the sure registry who had been overlooked.12 almost 3,000 (44%) of the 6,720 flagged invalidations were code 33 cases; and of these, 2,032 (69%) were found to belong to registered voters subject to no other challenge. these cases alone represented more than 6% of all code 33 challenges made by the democrats. if the reviewed subset had included all the noted lines and if the harrisburg review had been completed, these cases would have represented about 5,300 (or nearly 16%) of the democrats’ “not in county” challenges. combined with the one-third of these challenges that were validated in the harrisburg review, nearly half of the democrats’ code 33 challenges (about 16,000 out of 33,494) lacked merit. they might have been only slightly less accurate had they flipped a coin to determine whether to challenge a signature. the sure database had become fully operational less than a year prior to the romanelli signature review. as an attempt to track over eight million registered voters by integrating into a uniform format the many formats previously used by different pennsylvania counties, the sure system could not have been expected to be flawless. in addition to the lack of scanned images of signatures for a significant number of registered voters (which may or may not have been an error on the part of sure), several other problems were encountered. one of these concerned abbreviations in street directions that appeared in some places after the street name (e.g., “washington st e”) and in other places before the street name (e.g., “n 17th st”). there were even a few places where the direction was spelled out (e.g., “south east st”). these directions hampered address searches because addresses in philadelphia, unlike those in other counties, were required to include a directional if it appeared at the beginning of the street name in the sure database. compounding the problem, many signers did not include the directional blyden potts 51 in their address information. similarly, the name of single digit streets might appear as “5 ave,” “5th ave,” “05 ave,” or “05th ave,” and even with the use of wildcard search terms a reviewer might have to search two or three times to find the right listing, a task made even more onerous when street addresses included directionals. these problems led to the wrongful invalidation of the signatures of an unknown number of registered voters. some portion of those lines challenged as “no cursive signature” (code 24) and “illegible signature” (code 25) likely represented legitimate voters. arthritic voters in particular often found it difficult to sign their names in the small spaces provided on the nomination paper. at least 138 of the signatures in the reviewed subset invalidated on the basis of code 24 were specifically identified as belonging to registered voters, as were 257 signatures invalidated on the basis of code 25. at least 34 other signatures of identified voters were improperly invalidated because the signature and printed name were transposed (i.e., in the wrong boxes). invalidations of this type were supposed to have ceased in the second week of the review. accounting the adversarial accounting system established by the commonwealth court also worked against romanelli. he had volunteers count the total number of signatures on the submitted nomination paper, but he had no systematic accounting process to track the signature stipulations (i.e., “valid,” “invalid,” or “disputed”) as they were being reviewed. his lawyer was thus less than fully prepared to make effective court motions or to try to thwart the democrats’ tactics (see in re nomination paper of rogers et al. 2006c). nor did the court make an independent accounting. accordingly, both romanelli and the commonwealth court were dependent upon the democrats’ numbers, which proved to be substantially flawed. one large democratic accounting error discovered and corrected during the review concerned the gross number of signatures submitted. neither side had an accurate figure. the greens knew they had submitted over 99,000 signatures, of which at least 5,400 had been struck as invalid by the green signature team prior to filing; but because several pages were missing from their photocopies, they did not know exactly how many more signatures there were. nor did they know how many signatures had been invalidated by the bcel initial review. hence, after 52 the removal of carl romanelli from pennsylvania’s 2006 u.s. senate ballot the code 30 (“pre-struck”) signatures were set aside, they could only estimate the number of presumptively valid signatures to be approximately 94,000. the democratic count of gross and net signatures was several thousand signatures lower than the green count. the democrats had started with a gross count that had already factored out the pre-struck lines. they then subtracted the number of pre-struck lines, thereby effectively discounting the pre-struck lines twice. the discovery of this error embarrassed the democrats who for two days had adamantly insisted that such an error could not possibly explain the count discrepancy. the commonwealth court easily could have ordered a neutral count to eliminate accounting errors. since both the democrats and the greens had spreadsheet records for each page of the nomination paper, it would have been a simple task to merge the two counts of gross, pre-struck, and net signatures for each page, then flag the discrepancies and cross-check them against the actual nomination paper pages to determine accurate numbers.13 it might also have expedited the review process. yet, the commonwealth court apparently never considered this possibility. another signature accounting issue arose when the specific challenges against a given signature were unsubstantiated and the democrats sometimes found a new basis for objection, most commonly an address discrepancy. they sought the permission of the commonwealth court to amend their challenges, which the court granted (see in re nomination paper of rogers et al. 2006b). the democrats then went through the signatures already reviewed and unilaterally declared invalid many of those that had been previously stipulated as either valid or disputed. they did so without any independent review of whether there was a legitimate basis for amending these prior signature determinations. the accounting began with the premise that there were 3,702 pages of nomination paper containing 99,802 gross signatures, as both sides had stipulated, and that 5,973 of these were “code 30s,” pre-struck by either the romanelli volunteers or the bcel reviewers prior to the challenge, leaving a net of 93,829 signatures. a later audit of the democratic and green numbers found only 3,698 pages of nomination paper containing a nominal 99,965 signatures. with a stipulated 5,973 pre-struck, the base number of presumptively valid signatures prior to review should have been 93,992. romanelli lost 163 signatures there.14 blyden potts 53 from the 93,829 base the commonwealth court subtracted the stipulated invalid signatures and added a “code 30 adjustment” that reduced the nominal number of invalid signatures by 1,081 to correct for the democrats’ double-counted code 30s and to adjust for the unilaterally amended challenges. except for these adjustments, the court basically accepted as accurate the stipulated invalid signatures; and finding these sufficient to dismiss romanelli from the ballot, the court effectively gave him the benefit of the doubt on disputed signatures by disregarding them. the adjusted number of invalid signatures was 35,690 in the court’s final count, which gave romanelli 58,139 presumed valid signatures, an official deficit of 8,931. the review was not completed, however, before it was ended. only 71,662 (72%) of the total 99,965 lines and 49,266 (78%) of the 63,557 alleged challenges (after removing the code 30 lines) had been reviewed. if the rate of successful challenges up to that point (65%) would have applied to the 14,291 challenges allegedly remaining, then the number of stipulated invalid signatures would increase by 9,300 to 44,990, thereby giving romanelli a nominal deficit of 18,230 signatures. it is doubtful, though, that the 65% rate would have pertained. the review had gotten the highest rate of invalidation in philadelphia, which was completed by the end of the review. the remaining challenges were overwhelmingly in other counties on pages that had been circulated mostly by volunteers. among these, only about 43% of challenged lines had been invalidated.15 had that rate prevailed on the remaining 14,291 challenges, romanelli would have picked up 6,135 signatures, for a total of 41,825. finally, had the commonwealth court accurately counted base lines, romanelli would have been left with a total of 52,167 signatures, for a deficit of 14,903. in virtually any other election year 52,167 signatures would have been far more than sufficient to qualify him for the ballot. in addition to this projected number of signatures that the commonwealth court would have recognized as valid had accounting errors been remedied and the review concluded, it is important to consider the number of signatures erroneously invalidated by the court due to human error or flaws in the sure system. no firm estimate of these numbers is available, but a rough estimate can be made. during the review process, green reviewers noted instances where names had been marked as invalid or disputed but the reviewer believed the signer to be a valid registered voter. experienced green volunteers often noted as many as half the invalidated signatures on a given page, but some of the 54 the removal of carl romanelli from pennsylvania’s 2006 u.s. senate ballot temporary reviewers did not note any signatures. the vast majority of these had been stipulated invalid (they also included some disputed lines). green volunteers were able to verify several thousand of these lines before the court’s decision, thereby double-checking the harrisburg review in hope of rehabilitating some of the signatures. still, thousands more were never verified. of the 6,720 names looked up in sure by green volunteers, 4,729 (70%) were found to be valid, identifiable registered voters who should not have been challenged. hence, at least 13% of invalidated signatures in the court accounting were legitimate, registered pennsylvania voters. just under half of them were simply missed by harrisburg reviewers, and the rest had been invalidated on legal grounds that probably would not have prevented them from voting. an attempt to rehabilitate these signatures in court was denied on several grounds (see in re nomination paper of rogers et al. 2006c). if sufficient time had been available to review all the noted signatures, it is likely that the total number found to belong to identifiable registered voters would have been twice as great as thought, perhaps a quarter of all the invalidated signatures, or between 9,000 and 10,000 names. if the harrisburg review had been completed, this number may have grown proportionately to between 12,000 and 13,000 signatures. if note-taking had been more thorough, the number could have exceeded 15,000 signatures. the portion of these signatures erroneously invalidated under the existing law would not by itself have been enough to put romanelli past the 67,070 signature threshold. under the law—arbitrary and unfair as it was—the “right” decision most likely was reached. yet, the overall estimate, including both the outright errors and the signatures of legitimate voters invalidated on technical grounds, suggests that romanelli likely satisfied the principle of a “modicum of support,” even when the hurdle was set at 67,070 signatures. more than 70,000 registered pennsylvania voters may have signed his nomination paper in good faith. thus, there is a substantial probability that he may have been effectively removed from the ballot mainly by challenges sustained on legal technicalities. if so, the spirit of the law—a law at the very heart of our democratic ideals—was subverted by the democrats’ rigid invocation of the letter of the law.16 blyden potts 55 repercussions as a result of the signature challenge, carl romanelli was removed from the ballot as a candidate for the u.s. senate. his name had been printed on a number of absentee ballots, but subsequent to his loss in the signature challenge the commonwealth court instructed county election offices to cross his name off any absentee ballots on which it appeared. in the general election he received fewer than 1,000 votes as a write-in candidate. the exact number of votes is uncertain since a few counties, most significantly philadelphia, certified write-in ballots as a group without distinguishing the particular candidates. but his vote share clearly was far below the 2% of the total vote that the green party of pennsylvania needed to retain its status as a minor party (pennsylvania election code, § 2831). moreover, the greens lost a special opportunity to garner publicity and dramatically influence an election that had attracted national attention. the libertarian and constitution parties also lost minor party status as a result of the ballot access barrier and petition challenges from opponents. as a result, pennsylvanians may find it difficult to register to vote as members of the green party or other minor parties. during the signature review romanelli petitioned the courts for relief from the 67,070 signature requirement, arguing that the rule setting the threshold was unconstitutional, that by the plain language of the law the election that should have been used to set the threshold was the judicial election of 2005 rather than the statewide election of 2004, and that the “qualified elector” language in the law should mean any individual who is eligible to register to vote rather than be restricted to those who are in fact registered to vote. these arguments were rejected by the state supreme court, although romanelli’s “qualified elector” argument won support in a dissenting opinion by justice thomas g. saylor [in re nomination paper of rogers et al. 2006d). because romanelli lost the signature challenge, the commonwealth court assessed him and his attorney, larry otter, more than $80,000 for court costs and their opponents’ legal fees. the fine against legal counsel was unprecedented and thought by many observers to be unconstitutional. romanelli and otter pursued a series of legal appeals for relief from these penalties. their appeals had been headed to the u.s. supreme court (see rogers et al. v. cortes 2006), but in 2008 romanelli and otter decided to petition the pennsylvania supreme court to rehear the case (brown 2007, green 56 the removal of carl romanelli from pennsylvania’s 2006 u.s. senate ballot party of the united states 2006, moulton 2006, skrapitz 2007, winger 2006b and 2007). about that time the 2008 “bonusgate” indictments were issued, charging democratic party leaders with having criminally diverted state funds to pay staffers for various party activities. two of the major activities at the heart of the indictments concerned the signature challenge teams that removed romanelli from the ballot and had removed ralph nader from the ballot in 2004. democratic use of taxpayer money to fund these efforts not only was a crime, but it also gave democrats an unfair advantage with an essentially free challenge against romanelli. if the money had to come out of party coffers, the democrats might have opted not to incur the expense. romanelli and otter amended their appeal to the state supreme court based on the “bonusgate” revelations.17 although a federal district judge did criticize pennsylvania’s ballot access rules for being unnecessarily restrictive (see rogers et al. v. cortes 2006), no court found them to be unconstitutional.18 in the wake of these judicial rulings, various voting reform groups, such as the pennsylvania ballot access coalition, called for new state legislation to ease ballot access for independent and minor party candidates (see pabac). the state legislature made a few efforts in this direction. in 2006, spurred in part by the romanelli case, house bill 2830 sought to cap the number of signatures required for ballot access: the number of qualified electors of the state signing such nomination paper shall be at least equal to two per centum of the largest entire vote cast for any elected candidate in the state at large at the last preceding election at which state-wide candidates were vote for and shall not exceed forty-five thousand signatures (general assembly of pennsylvania 2006). this amendment may have been intended as a form of mild ballot relief that would prevent the signature threshold from exceeding 45,000 signatures. nonetheless, the wording actually limits the number of signatures collected rather than the necessary threshold. as worded, the amendment would deny ballot access to independent and minor party candidates when they submit the necessary number of signatures if the 2% threshold exceeds 45,000. a bill introduced in 2007 sought to disqualify entirely the votes of people who cast them for candidates like romanelli: blyden potts 57 on any ballot indicating a vote for any person whose name is not printed on the ballot because the name of such person was removed from the ballot according to law for any reason, the entire vote in said office shall be rendered void (general assembly of pennsylvania 2007). two more ballot access proposals were introduced in the state legislature the following year. one would have allowed candidates to pay a fee in lieu of filing signatures at a price of $1 per required signature (benninghoff bill 2008). because it did not change the threshold level, this bill would have allowed independent and minor party candidates to buy their way onto the general ballot at a cost of tens of thousands of dollars, while republicans and democrats would be able buy their way onto the primary ballot for no more than $2,000. such an arrangement would provide little, if any, improvement to the unequal ballot access problem. near the end of the 2008 legislative session, republican senator mike folmer introduced a bill to adopt the voter’s choice act (vca) that the pennsylvania ballot access coalition (pabac) had been proposing (folmer 2008). this bill offers exactly the kind of ballot access reform that pennsylvania needs. it would put independent and minor party candidates on an almost equal footing with republicans and democrats by requiring all statewide candidates to obtain just 2,000 signatures to appear on the ballot. when the bill was not adopted in 2008, folmer reintroduced it in 2009. it now awaits committee action. if something like folmer’s bill is not enacted, the biggest impact of the romanelli signature challenge may be on future independent and minor party candidates. the challenge showed that it is not sufficient for such candidates merely to overcome the arbitrarily fluctuating and often extraordinarily high signature requirement necessary to show a “modicum of support.” rather, they must be prepared to obtain perhaps twice that number of signatures. then they must field a legal team and staff of reviewers to defend their signatures in a system almost rigged to bar independent and minor party candidates from getting on the ballot by permitting the invalidation of a substantial number of their signatures on legal technicalities. finally, they must be prepared to pay a financial penalty on the order of $1,000,000 should they lose the signature challenge. 58 the removal of carl romanelli from pennsylvania’s 2006 u.s. senate ballot conclusion the analysis here leads to several conclusions. first, carl romanelli likely had the “modicum of support” among pennsylvania voters necessary to qualify for access to the ballot. second, the standards imposed in validating signatures are far more stringent than the rhetoric of a “modicum of support” among registered voters suggests. third, the numbers used by the commonwealth court were in error because the process by which the court calculated them was fundamentally flawed, given its tendency to undercount valid signatures. fourth, the democrats (and by extension probably also the republicans) did not act in good faith in the signature review since they willfully disenfranchised voters they knew to be valid and then dissembled about doing so. finally, these factors combine to force candidates to obtain a number of signatures that is in fact substantially greater than the already high barrier set in state law. it would be surprising if these factors did not have a significant chilling effect on some people considering running for state office in the future, one that is ultimately harmful to the interests of all pennsylvanians. notes 1although the author is a sociologist by training, he has written this article not simply as a social scientist but as a person perhaps uniquely qualified to comment on the events related herein by virtue of the roles he performed on the romanelli team in the signature review process. the author makes no pretense of political neutrality. as an officer of the green party of pennsylvania, he is an ardent supporter of minor parties and of election reforms, including more open ballot access and instant runoff voting (irv). 2while a full defense of this supposition is beyond the scope of this article, the general principle that the value of the best candidate in the pool should be expected to improve systematically with an increased number of candidates reflects basic probability theory. consider a random process such as die rolls or drawing playing cards from a deck. if the goal is to get the highest possible value on any one die or card, then throwing more dice or drawing more cards is an advantage (although the marginal benefit of each additional die or card declines as the number of dice or cards increases). for instance, the probability of getting a six on one die is 1:6, on two dice 11:36, on three dice 91:216, etc. the same tendency should also apply to drawing a pool of candidates, even though candidate nominations never approach the pure randomness of dice rolls. a better analogy might be to imagine a deck of cards randomly shuffled into four hands. even if the best card is selected from each of two hands, there is a blyden potts 59 chance that the better of those two cards could be bested by a card drawn from either of the two other hands, even if the latter are drawn randomly. the likelihood of additional candidates improving the field is, of course, dependent upon the quality of the candidates already in the race as well as the process by which candidates enter the race. if the political process already tends to provide highly qualified candidates, then there may be little gain from adding candidates. indeed, where the race already consists of the two best possible candidates, adding more candidates gives no benefit. yet, actual elections rarely approach this scenario. also see note 4. 3most people likely would agree that the 2003 california gubernatorial recall election with 135 candidates reflected ballot clutter (california secretary of state 2003). the u.s. supreme court has suggested that a cluttered ballot is one with an excess of twelve or even eight candidates (see lubin v. panish 1974, and williams v. rhodes 1968, as cited in winger 2006a). yet, the rhetoric of pennsylvania’s democratic party suggests that having more than two candidates means ballot clutter (although the party rarely complains when its own primary elections contain several candidates). 4it might be argued that pennsylvania already benefits from multiple candidate fields for legislative offices with primary elections serving as the first of two stages and the general election being in effect a runoff between the best candidates offered by each of the two major political parties. this argument overlooks the ineligibility of “independent” voters to participate in pennsylvania’s “closed” primaries, and it presumes that the criteria by which each party evaluates candidates for its nomination align with the criteria by which the electorate evaluates candidates. having subsets of the population winnow a handful of choices down to one candidate for each party is not the same as having the full electorate make that choice. 5according to november 2006 voter registration data, one party outnumbered the other by more than 10% of the population of registered voters in 40 of pennsylvania’s 50 senate districts. in 15 of those districts the dominant party accounted for at least 60% of all registered voters, outnumbering the other party by a ratio of at least 3:2. similarly, one party outnumbered the other by more than 10% of registered voters in 14 of 19 congressional districts. in four of those districts the dominant party accounted for over 60% of the voters. 6in 2006, minor party and unaffiliated voters accounted for 12% of pennsylvania registered voters, or just under a million people (bcel 2006b). yet, the number of people identifying as independent or with a minor party is probably higher because many of these voters register as democrats or republicans in order to be eligible to vote in a party primary. in the 2004 national annenberg election survey (2005), 18% of pennsylvanians identified as independent, while most states had percentages from 23-30%. over 26% of pennsylvania residents in the american national election survey (2000) identified as independent, with another 13% indicating they had no preference between the two major parties. 7in 2004, the party struggled to get ballot access with just over 30,000 signatures. the 2006 goal was three times as great. many greens were daunted 60 the removal of carl romanelli from pennsylvania’s 2006 u.s. senate ballot by the task and chose not to “waste” effort collecting signatures. some participated only half-heartedly. other minor party candidates had a similar view. ken krawchuk, the libertarian candidate for u.s. senate in 2006, testified that collecting 100,000 signatures was in his estimation virtually impossible. consequently, he discontinued his campaign (krawchuk (2006). russ diamond, founder of the pa clean sweep movement and an independent candidate for governor in 2006, tried but came up short with about 38,000 signatures. 8the largest number of pages was 3,704, but it was later determined that one page number had been duplicated and seven page numbers had been skipped in the enumeration of pages. 9one of the main factors driving the major parties to try to limit ballot access to two candidates is the constraint of winner-take-all elections. such contests tend to create “spoiler” election dynamics, where minor party candidates siphon off votes from the more similar of the two lead candidates, thereby effectively helping the less similar candidate. it was the spoiler issue, rather than the principle of ballot clutter per se, that motivated democrats to try to remove romanelli from the ballot. the spoiler issue could be virtually eliminated by adopting instant runoff voting (irv) in elections. 10statement made in the doorway of the north office building conference room in august of 2006 during the review process. other participants in the process heard gallagher make similar remarks at various times during the review. 11these cases were found in a subsequent review by green volunteers of 6,720 of the invalidated and disputed signatures that had been flagged as likely to be valid despite being labeled as invalid. this review is the basis for counts of other invalidations reported in this section. most cases missing sure signatures were probably flagged, but the subset covers only about half of all notes made; and roughly one quarter of the lines were never reviewed, so there are no notes for those lines. a few hundred signatures may have been lost in this way. between 0.1% and 0.5% of sure records have this omission. 12although at least 4,729 signatures were improperly invalidated, the 70% rate of false invalidations is not representative of the likely rate across all invalidated signatures. a strong selection bias toward legitimate voters was likely since the reviewed signatures were drawn from a pool that green volunteers in the harrisburg review had flagged for review in the belief that they probably belonged to valid registered voters even though the stipulation process required that they be marked as invalid. that also may make them somewhat dependent upon the propensity of individual reviewers to make such notes. some reviewers noted many such cases; some noted none. 13this author later performed the crosscheck and found several other accounting errors made by the democrats. 14the number lost at this point was probably a bit more. the stipulation of code 30s split the difference between the numbers of the two teams. the green figure took into account only a few of the bcel pre-strikes, which must have numbered several hundred. so on the face of things, splitting the difference blyden potts 61 helped romanelli. yet, spreadsheet comparison showed the democrats had miscounts on 195 pages, with all of the errors in their favor—an undercount of 1,686 signatures—while the greens had errors on fewer than a dozen pages, including the four overlooked in the copying process. it therefore seems likely that romanelli would have fared better if there had been an accurate count of code 30s. the democrats had also duplicated accounting for a few dozen pages, which inflated the count of invalid signatures. the commonwealth court denied a motion to remove these duplicated invalid signatures because the matter had not been brought to the court’s attention earlier (see in re nomination paper of rogers et al. 2006c). 15signatures from the philadelphia area differed greatly from those obtained in other counties because the signature contractors operated almost exclusively in southeastern pennsylvania, whereas signatures from other counties were collected largely by green volunteers. the nomination paper pages suggest that green volunteers were careful to ensure that their signers were registered voters and residents of the proper county. the higher rate of invalidations for contractors suggests that they often did not ask signers the necessary questions. furthermore, contractors collected signatures on a convenience basis. many volunteers did so too, but some of them used street lists to target signers. these workers had validity rates above 90%, which generally was better than that of the volunteers. 16titus north’s signature review fared significantly better than romanelli’s. north committed to a diligent review and zealous defense of his signatures. that review ultimately demonstrated that north had received a sufficient number of valid signatures to qualify for the ballot in the 14th congressional district. he was the only candidate challenged in pennsylvania in 2006 to prevail. he went on to win 9.9% of the vote in november (bcel 2006c). 17on october 21, 2008, the pennsylvania supreme court refused to reconsider their case on the grounds that the new appeal should have gone first to the commonwealth court. on january 15, 2009, romanelli and otter asked the commonwealth court to rehear their case in light of the july indictments. that court refused on january 23. romanelli and otter then appealed again to the pennsylvania supreme court, which has yet to rule. 18the green, constitution, and libertarian parties have filed a federal suit against pennsylvania’s ballot access scheme. see constitution party of pennsylvania et al. v. cortes et al. 2009). references aclu. 2006. press release: aclu of arkansas and state green party win in third party ballot access case. www.aclu.org/votingrights/access/26516prs20060823. html. american national election survey. 2000. preand post-election survey data, 2nd icpsr version. ann arbor, mi: university of michigan, center for political studies. http://www.aclu.org/votingrights/access/26516prs20060823. html http://www.aclu.org/votingrights/access/26516prs20060823. html 62 the removal of carl romanelli from pennsylvania’s 2006 u.s. senate ballot amorós, abe. 2006. “rooney: rampant discrepancies in green party signature gathering.” press release of the pennsylvania democratic party. august 4. barnes, tom. 2006. “dems: green party petitions fake.” pittsburgh post-gazette, august 10. benninghoff bill. 2008. www.lppa.org/documents/legislation/benninghoff_bill_070108. pdf. brown, mark. 2007. “political peril in pennsylvania: ballot access penalties create chilling effect.” green institute. february 19. http://www.greeninstitute.net/sub pages/brown_ballot.asp. bcel. 2006a. bureau of commissions, elections, & legislation. pennsylvania department of state. 2006 nomination paper objections cases. october 5. bcel. 2006b. bureau of commissions, elections, & legislation. pennsylvania department of state. commonwealth of pennsylvania 2006 voter registration statistics. november 7. bcel. 2006c. bureau of commissions, elections, & legislation. pennsylvania department of state. 2006 general election official returns. http://www. electionreturns.state.pa.us/. california secretary of state. 2003. certified list of candidates: october 7, 2003 statewide special election. http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/2003_cert_list.pdf. constitution party of pennsylvania et al. v. cortes et al. 2009. (no. 09-1691, e.d. pa.). federal election commission. 2007. http://www.fec.gov/finance/disclosure/srssea.shtml. folmer, mike. 2008. http://www.senatorfolmer.com/press-2008/072408.htm. fudge report. 2006. “pa democratic party files office challenge of green party petitions.” august 8. http://www.fudgereport.net/pa_080806.htm. general assembly of pennsylvania. 2006. house bill no. 2830. general assembly of pennsylvania. 2007. house bill no. 48. green party of pennsylvania. 2007. press release: “green party of pennsylvania nominates romanelli, rogers for 2006 campaigns.” february 27. green party of the united states. 2006. press release: “pennsylvania court upholds rigged election, bumps green party candidate running for senate.” october 9. http://www.gp.org/press/pr_2006_10_09.shtml. in re nomination paper of rogers et al. 2006a. __ a.2d __ (pa. cmwlth. no. 426 m.d.). in re nomination paper of rogers et al. 2006b. __ a.2d __ (pa. cmwlth. sept. 1). in re nomination paper of rogers et al. 2006c. 914 a.2d 457 (pa. cmwlth. sept. 26). in re nomination paper of rogers et al. 2006d. 907 a.2d 503 (pa. s.ct. oct. 4). jenness v. fortson. 1971. 403 u.s. 431. kiel, paul. 2006. “gop donors funded entire pa green party drive.” tpm muckraker. august 2. http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/001256.php. http://www.lppa.org/documents/legislation/benninghoff_bill_070108. pdf http://www.lppa.org/documents/legislation/benninghoff_bill_070108. pdf http://www.greeninstitute.net/sub pages/brown_ballot.asp http://www.greeninstitute.net/sub pages/brown_ballot.asp http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ https://webmail.ursinus.edu/exchweb/bin/redir.asp?url=http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/2003_cert_list.pdf http://www.fec.gov/finance/disclosure/srssea.shtml http://www.senatorfolmer.com/press-2008/072408.htm http://www.fudgereport.net/pa_080806.htm http://www.gp.org/press/pr_2006_10_09.shtml http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/001256.php blyden potts 63 krawchuk, ken. 2006. testimony given before the u.s. district court for the middle district of pennsylvania in hearing of marakay j. rogers et al. v. pedro a. cortes, secretary of the commonwealth of pennsylvania. february 2. lubin v. panish. 1974. 415 u.s. 709. maryland green party et al. v. maryland board of elections et al. 2003. 377 md. 127. moulton, chuck. 2006. “ballot access update.” the libertarian penn. october 28. http://libpenn.blogspot.com/2006_10_01_libpenn_archive.html. national annenberg election survey. 2005. party identification by state. february 15. www.annenbergpublicpolicycenter.org/naes/2005_03_party-identification-by-state_ 02-15_pr.pdf. pabac. pennsylvania ballot access coalition. voter’s choice act. http://www.paballot access.org/voters_choice_act.html. pennsylvania election code. pennsylvania statutes. title 25. petition to set aside the nomination papers of marakay rogers, christina valente, and carl j. romanelli as candidates of an independent political body for governor, lt. governor, and u.s. senator of the united states. 2006. august. protocol for signature review. 2006. august 24. rogers et al. v. corbett et al. 2006. 468 f.3d 188 (3rd circ.). rogers et al. v. cortes. 2006. 426 f. supp. 2d 232 (m.d. pa.). skrapitz, elizabeth. 2007. “high court rules against romanelli.” (wilkes-barre) citizens voice, february 25. williams v. rhodes. 1968. 393 u.s. 23. winger, richard. 2006a. “court says qualified parties can be kept off ballot.” ballot access news. september 1. http://www.ballot-access.org/2006/090106.html. winger, richard. 2006b. “pa. court imposes $82,102 ‘unfiling fee.’” ballot access news. september 1. http://www.ballot-access.org/2006/090106.html. winger, richard. 2007. “pennsylvania demands big $$ from both nader and romanelli for removing each from the ballot.” ballot access news. february 1. http://www.ballot-access.org/2007/020107.html. http://libpenn.blogspot.com/2006_10_01_libpenn_archive.html http://www.annenbergpublicpolicycenter.org/naes/2005_03_party-identification-by-state_ 02-15_pr.pdf http://www.annenbergpublicpolicycenter.org/naes/2005_03_party-identification-by-state_ 02-15_pr.pdf http://www.paballot access.org/voters_choice_act.html http://www.paballot access.org/voters_choice_act.html http://www.ballot-access.org/2006/090106.html http://www.ballot-access.org/2006/090106.html http://www.ballot-access.org/2007/020107.html ó commonwealth a journal of political science 2002 volume 11 issn 0890~2410 commonwealth: a journal of political science editor: gerard j. fitzpatrick, ursinus college associate editors: thomas j. baldino, wilkes university donald g. tannenbaum, gettysburg college managing editor: harold cox, wilkes university editorial review board aryeh botwinick temple university m. margaret conway university of florida roger h. davidson university of maryland jean b. elshtain urriversity of chicago richard f. fenno university of rochester marianne githens goucher college susan w. hammond american university samuel krislov university of minnesota g. calvin mackenzie colby college michael j. malbin state university of ny, albany harvey c. mansfield, jr. harvard ljniver~ity kenneth f. mott gettysburg college craig n.l\1urphy wellesley college steven a. peterson pennsylvania state university mark p. petracca university of california, irvine h. mark roelofs new york university bruce m. russett yale university ]. david singer university of michigan contents volume 11 2002 isbn 0890-2410 nietzsche's rejection of wagner: aesthetics, ethics, and politics william f. byrne 1 labor unions and american elections: the politics of voter mobilization in the 2000 presidential election donald w. beachler 23 the impact of rhetorical situation on realism as measured by the lexi-. cal content of governors' state-of-the-state speeches daniel dileo 39 pennsylvania research would you vote for colin l.jowell'? white support for a not quite color­ less black candidate april gresham and robert maranto 53 a tale of two cities: the 1999 philadelphia mayoral election jeffrey kraus 71 about the authors donald w. beachler, ph.d., is a professor of politics at ithaca college. he received his doctoral degree from cornell university. his research inter­ ests include american elections and labor unions in american politics. william f. byrne is a ph.d. candidate in politics at the catholic university of america and an adjunct lecturer in politics at marymount university in arlington, va. his research interests focus on political philosophy. daniel dileo, ph.d., is an associate professor of political science at penn­ sylvania state university at altoona. he received his doctoral degree from temple university. his research interests include political rhetoric and polilical lheology. april gresham, ph.d., has taught at lafayette college and furman uni­ versity. she received her doctoral degree in social psychology from the university of minnesota. her research interests include public opinion, education retorm, and law and psychology. jeffrey kraus, ph.d., is a professor of political science at wagner college in staten island, new york. he received his doctoral degree from the graduate school of the city university of new york. his area of special­ ization is urban politics. robert maranto, ph.d., is an assistant professor of political science at villanova university. he received his doctoral degree from the univer­ sity of minnesota. his research interests include administrative reform and education reform. .a_cknowlcdgmcnts commonwealth is published annually under the authorization of the pennsylvania political science association (ppsa) and sent to all members individual, departmental, and institutional. for subscription rates for all categories of membership, see separate announcements on pages 85 and 87. changes of address should be sent to: dr. 11\'. \vesley mcdonald, department of political science, elizi:lbt:!thtuwil culh:~gt:!, ellzi:lbelillowfl, pa 17022. <mcdonaldw@etown.edu>. postmaster: send notification of undelivered journals to this address. second class postage paid at harrisburg, pa and at additional mailing offices. copyright 2002 by the pennsylvania political science association: rssn 0890-2410. commonwealth will print free of charge camera-ready official announcements of up to one page of the american political science association, as well as northeastern political science association and its constituent members, and other organizations whose journals provide corresponding privileges to ppsa. contact the managing editor. advertising, reprint information, and rates are also available from the treasurer of the ppsa, dr. thomas brogan, department of political science, albright college, p.o. 15234, reading, pa 19612-5234 the pennsylvania political science .a.ssociation officers president stephanie bressler first vice president joseph melusky st. francis university second vice president thomas j. baldino wilkes university treasurer thomas brogran albright college secretary w. wesley mcdonald elizabethtown college executive council 2000-2003 francis moran new jersey city university jeffery b. burnham lock haven university 2001·2004 michael cassidy pennsylvania house of representatives jean wahl i ianis university of scranton 2002-2005 bridget jeffrey elizabethtown college stanley berard lock haven university ex officio members past president craig m. wheeland villanova university commonwealth managing editor harold cox wilkes university commonwealth editor gerard j. fitzpatrick ursinus college commonwealth associate editors thomas j. baldino wilkes university donald g. tannenbaum gettysburg college in memoriant commonwealth regrets to note the untimely death on april 27, 2002 of one of our associate editors, professor martin j. "marty" collo of widener university. marty's colleague, prof. gordon henderson .. graciously provided the following reflections. marty joined the widener faculty in 1986 after completing his ph.d. in international relations at the university of pennsylvania. in 1978 he graduated summa cum laude in politic.::11 sc'ipn('p with a (,prtifi('mp in education from widener university. he had served as associate edi­ tor of the journal of third world studies and as associate editor of com­ monwealth since 1989. he was fluent in spanish and characterized him­ self as "proficient" in french, german, and italian. during his brief career, he received a number of awards for his teaching and scholar­ :ship. he was promo led lo lhe rank of professor in 1997, his first year of eligibility. marty was widely published in the area of latin american politics and the political economy of the third world. he took his scholar­ ship very seriously, often traveling throughout latin america during the summer. he was often consulted for his knowledge of puprto rico's history, politics and quest for statehood. marty taught the introductory course on foreign governments as well as area courses such as europe, latin america, and the third world. he also developed and taught courses on political economy and single-handedly created a political economy major. as a teacher, marty was known for his demanding approach to education. he ex­ pected students to take responsibility for learning and never hesitated to give them the grades he thought their efforts deserved. this was especially evident in his supervision of our senior research course. to successfully complete senior research with "dr. collo" was regarded as no mere achievement. marty's colleagues throughout the university knew him to be a demanding participant in faculty governance as well. he served in capacities at all levels of the university and had a reputation for ask­ . ing tough, articulate questions and for being eminently well prepared. marty's leadership skills and thoroughness made lasting contribu­ tions to the quality of education and faculty governance at widener. while those of us in the widener community knew this demand­ ing side of marty's faculty persona, we also knew his biting sense of humor, his accessibility, and his willingness to offer friendly counsel when asked. during one particularly bad stretch of my service as associate dean, marty listened patiently as i tried to arrive at solu­ tions to several sticky disputes. and it was not unusual on sunny days to see the otherwise no-nonsense dr. collo conducting class out­ doors. i think there is no better testament to the success marty had in making his alma mater a better place than the parade of students who voluntarily spoke at the service held in his memory at the university. so many of them spoke, often tearfully, of how important it had been to them to know that dr. collo held them to the highest of standards. "when he told me i had not done my best/' one of them recalled, "i knew not only that he cared enough about my education to say so but that i would do my best in the future." ó state influence in the presidential selection process: assessing pennsylvania's non-participation in the frontloading trend james e. vike widener university the frontloading trend ill the presidential primary system has been widely criticizedfor creating disparities among states in their level of influence over the presidential selection process. this article examines the general motivations, hel1pfits, fll1d consequences of state participation in frontloading. it focuses upon pen11sylvania, which has not joined the trend. presidential primaries i11 penn­ sylvania have become increasingly ul1competitive due to frol1tloading in. other states. comparative analysis with ohio alldforecastillg ~malysis based 01/ penn­ sylvania voting history suggest that an earlier presidential primary in pennsyl­ vania in 2000 would have resulted in not only more candidate competitiveness and campaign activity, but also more voter choice and voter turnout. yet, fear of increased administrative burdens and disruption to the electoral status quo stopped pennsylvania's legislators fr0111 adoptill:;? the cha/l:;?e. since the 1968 presidential election cycle, direct primaries have been thp dominant mp;m~ hy which tjlp major polit1c<ll parties select their presi­ dential nominees. following the successful momentum-driven campaign of jimmy carter in 1976, the nomination stage of this process has addi­ tionally been dominated by precipitous frontloading of the primary cal­ endar. states seeking more influence in the selection process have moved up the dates of their presidential preference primaries in a seemingly endless race to the front of the primary season. although this trend was visible throughout the 1980s and early 1990s, the compression of state primary dates at the start of the primary calendar escalated dramatically prior to the 1996 and 2000 election cycles. the frontloading trend has been widely criticized for contributing negatively to the presidential selection process. chief among the criti­ cisms is the charge that the system creates vast disparities among states depending upon their placement on the primary season calendar (bartels 1988; jackson and crotty 2001; mayer 2001). critics contend that states with early primary dates benefit from substantially increased levels of campaign activity, political competitiveness, voter choice, voter atten­ tiveness, and voter participation over states with later primary dates . . the overall effect is to create an imbalance among the states, whereby some states have inordinately high influence on the selection process while the majority of states exact only moderate influence or none at all. 51 the states with the most significant influence on the selection process also have been tagged as unrepresentative of the political party rank and file and the overall electorate (jackson and crotty 2001; morton and wil­ liams 2001; wayne 2001). in addition to creating a disparity in influence among the states, the frontloaded primary system is criticized for weakening the candidate pool and creating inequities among the candidates. many scholars contend that the length and hazards of the process discourage participation among qualified candidates and establish distinct advantages for well-known and well-financed candidates over unconnected outsiders or candidates relying upon a non-front tunner strategy (buell 2000; busch 1997; ceasar and busch 2001; polsby and wildavsky 2000; wayne 2001). others argue that the system stifles the development of voter knowledge. the contin­ ued frontloading of the primary seasonl they claim, erodes the levels of citizen education and candidate empathy that naturally arise from a se­ rial election arrangement (haskell 2000; morton and williams 2001). the fronhoaded primary process lengthens the overall campaign sea­ son, but it actually shortens the period of competitiveness between as­ piring nominees. l the compressed period of competitiveness offers vot­ ers insufficient time to digest information or make informed decisions, and the lengthened campaign season tires candidates and voters, increases campaign finance demands, and contrib.utes to increasingly negative news coverage of the campaign (busch 2000; ceasar and busch 2001; patterson 1994; wayne 2001). although it is descriptively and empirically more efficient to exam­ ine the cumulative characteristics and drawbacks of this frontloading trend, fully understanding its impact is difficult because frontloading is not a collective endeavor. frontloading behavior is the product of many individual states making independent calendar placement decisions based upon individualized motivations. when one state chooses to frontload its primary date in pursuit of influence and electoral choice, it typically does so without considering the potentially detrimental effects of its decision on other states or its collective impact on the selection process. pennsylvania is one of several states detrimentally affected by these frontloading decisions. the frontloading trend has uniformly eroded pennsylvania's potential position of influence at the primary stage, even though it ranks among the top five states in electoral college power and consistently serves as an important battleground state in the general elec­ tion. pennsylvania's refusal to participate in the frontloading trend has caused its primary date to occur comparatively later in the delegate se­ lection sequence each four-year cycle, resulting in primary elections that are increasingly plagued by limited voter choices, low levels of competi­ tiveness, and poor voter participation. 52 this article focuses on the impact of the frontloading trend on the presidential selection process in general and pennsylvania in particular. it examines the implications of this trend by measuring both the extent to which the aspirations of frontloading states were realized during the 2000 primary season and the extent to which these decisiorts detrimen­ tally affected non-frontloaded states such as pennsylvania. assessment of the impact of pennsylvania's decision to retain its relatively late posi­ tion in 2000 includes a comparative analysis and forecast of the likely changes if pennsylvania had participated in the frontloading trend by moving its primary date up to early march of 2000. understanding frontloading in 1996 and 2000 the substantial frontloading in 1996 and 2000 significantly altered the pace and sequence of the primary season by placing a much larger num­ ber of delegates up for grabs in the earlier stages of the primary season than had occurred in prior years. the effect of the compressed delegate dccuiilulatiun process is exhibited in table 1.2 the escalated pace of pri­ maries and the rapid process of delegate accumulation in 1996 can be seen in the dramatic increase between 1992 and 1996 in the percentage of delegates selected by the end of march. the 30% increase in accumulated table 1 delegate selection patterns in l'residential primary seasons, 1976-2000 percentage of delegates percentage of delegates selected by second week selected by end of march in march democratic republican democratic republican 1976 9 9 19 19 1980 14 14 36 30 1984 18 18 29 26 1988 42 49 51 54 1992 31 36 43 46 1996 44 51 73 77 2000 65 68 71 72 source: adapted from mayer (2001) and morton and williams 53 democratic and republican delegates by the end of march is explained by 22 states moving up on the primary calendar from where they had been in 1992. the large percentage increase for the end of march 1996, when compared with the smaller percentage increases by the second week of march 1996, shows that most frontloading states selected dates in middle or late march, and only a few states (such as arizona and south carolina) established very early primary dates. despite the dramatic in­ creases in delegate accumulation in the latter weeks of march 1996, the winnowing process in the republican party was complete by the second week of that month, leaving significant numbers of voters without choices and half of the republican delegates yet to be distributed. the compressed primary season trend continued for 2000 when 14 states held gop primaries and caucuses and 12 states held democratic primaries on an earlier date than they had scheduled in 1996. the 21% increase in democratic delegate totals and 17% increase in republican delegate totals by the second week of march 2000 indicate that many states discovered that an early march date was essential to assure some modicum of influence over the winnowing process. the lack of signifi­ cant change in percentages at the end of march shows that most frontloading states were moving up from dates previously established in middle or late-march. that fully two-thirds of the republican and democratic delegates were determined by the end of the second week of march 2000 indicates the presence of more populous states in the early stages of 2000 and highlights the shorter period of competitivenebt>. frontloading decision factors several motivations drove particular states to move up on the pri­ mary season calendar in 1996 and 2000. the main reason was the desire to increase the state's influence in determining the outcome of the nomi­ nation process. when the winnowing process concludes prior to a state's election date, state voters are given no choice and are excluded from any role in determining the party's nominee 0 ackson and crotty 2001; lengle 1997). the lack of voter choice or influence contributes to citizen apathy and alienation from the political system. these burgeoning levels of alien­ ation are strongly linked to diminished interest in political participation (nye, king, and zelikow 1997). from the perspective of the individual state,' the lack of choice and influence can be remedied only by a move forward on the primary calendar. consistent with this reasoning is the suggestion that an earlier primary date is likely to increase voter turnout as candidates spend more time campaigning in the state and voters be­ lieve they will have an impact on determining the party nominee (ceasar and busch 1997; geer 1989; lengle 1997). another motivating factor in the decision to move forward on the primary calendar was the belief that 54 an earlier primary or caucus date would bring greater candidate atten­ tion to and media coverage of state interests and issues (cook 1992; jack­ son and crotty 2001; t.f'neip 1997; mayer 19(7) the key to this rationale is the understanding that candidate campaign strategies and media at­ tention during the primary season tend to be frontloaded as well. a successful campaign strategy must involve a keen focus on the early stage of the primary season (cook 1992; jackson and crotty 2001; mayer 1997; wayne 2001). candidates engage in a retail style of campaigning in the earliest contests by spending considerable time face-to-face with po­ tential supporters. as the campaign proceeds, candidates must convert to a wholesale· approach in order to reach potential supporters in up­ coming primary states that are spread all across the nation (haskell 2000; wayne 2001). given the speed with which the winnowing process oc­ c'llts, c';::mninates mnst p')(pend resources in early states because there is little to be gained from hoarding money or building organizational sup­ port in later states when continued survival is not assured. late primaries and caucuses also receive little media coverage, if any, and there is rarely any attention paid to issues distinct or relevant to these state. the lack of attention is highlighted by the common media practice of discontmuing extensive reports of election results from the later states once the nomination has been determined (lichter 1992; mayer 1997). the frontloading effort, as it relates to a desire for increased cam­ paign activity and media coverage, is also linked to hopes that an earlier primary date would provide substantial economic benefits as candidates and the media poured dollars into thfl statp (maypt '19(7). individual states considering moving up on the primary calendar must also weigh the negative potential consequences. if the state or party al­ ters the presidential preference primary date, some uncertainty and up­ heaval will inevitably result. particularly important is the upheaval caused by disruption to the established electoral calendar and processes in the state. the intensity of the upheaval depends on the date of the relocation and the extent to which the primary date was institutionalized in the minds of voters and election officials.3 the upheaval occurs through aj­ terations to electoral procedures and timelines; the uncertainty emerges from the unknown impact on turnout and outcomes that may arise from separating or pushing forward primary election events. there can also be substantial administrative costs associated with a significant step forward on the calendar. most states with early presi­ dential preference primaries separate them from statewide office primary elections. for example, of the first 21 gop presidential preference pri­ maries held in 2000, only three supported joint congressional primary elections. this separation mandates additional spending to support mul­ tiple primary events. separating the primaries and frontloading the presi55 dentinl event cnn also cnuse cnpncity problems for elections officinls be cause of the shorter time spans for attracting workers, the increased bur­ den on volunteers, and greater conflict with end of the year obligations during filing and recruitment periods (mccarthy 1999; race 1999). apart from administrative costs, some states choose to forgo a move to the top of the presidential primary calendar because moving up does not guarantee influence and might even produce an undesirable out­ come. just because a state moves to a well-positioned calendar date does not mean that the state will attract a full range of candidates. the actual influence of early states is vulnerable to manipulation by campaign strat­ egists, who can direct their candidates to bypass a state featuring a lfavorite sonl or popular candidate in pursuit of a more appealing future confrontation (polsby and wildavsky 2001). in other cases, decision mak­ ers may resist a move forward because they fear significant increases in participation from non-traditional and less partisan voters, which may produce an election outcome far different from what the move's sup­ porters had in mind (beck and hershey 2000). the major political parties also weighed into the decision making pro­ cess by offering incentives and issuing restrictions to discourage contin­ ued frontloading for the 2000 primary season. the democratic party pro­ tected the early positions of iowa and new hampshire by restricting states from scheduling binding primaries prior to march 7. the gop took a less restrictive approach. it tried to discourage frontloading by adding bonus delegate options to states that scheduled later primary dates (bibby 1999; busch 2000; edw;;trds and wayne 2000; hargen and mayer 2000; jackson and crotty 2001). assessing pennsylvania's decision to stay late to understand fully the frontloading considerations in pennsylvania prior to the 2000 election, it is important to examine pennsylvania presi­ dential primaries in a historical context. pennsylvania has held presi­ dential primary elections for both major political parties since 1968. an examination of primary election outcomes since the early 1980s shows different trends between the parties but consistency in the general lack of competitiveness. republican party primaries exhibited one-candidate domination in most years since the introduction of primaries.4 the only close election occurred in 1980 when the race between ronald reagan and george h. w. bush was decided by an eight-point margin of victory. the narrowest win since 1980 was the 45 point spread for bob dole in 1996. the recent lack of competitiveness is noteworthy because each pri mary season after 1984 included several serious candidates. the democratic party, on the other hand, routinely sponsored mod­ erately close elections through 1984. these elections were moderately 56 competitive because they featured relatively 11ar1'mv margins of victory winners that attained only a plurality of the popular vote, and several serious candidates actively campaigning for the party nomination. the closest democratic primary ejection occurred in 1980, when the race be­ tween jimmy carter and edward kennedy was decided by less that 1 %. although kennedy beat carter in the popular vote, carter gained a nar­ row advantage in state delegates. the close outcome in pennsylvania indicated significant competitiveness in the state, but it was of little con­ sequence nationally because carter' searlier electoral successes had placed him well ahead on the pat.h to the nomination. the democratic primaries in 1972, 1976, and 1984 were also moder­ ately competitive. each ejection featured multiple active campaigns, plu­ rality victories, and margins of victory under 14%. hubert humphrey won the 1972 democratic primary election with a 13.8% margin of vic­ tory. despite his relatively decisive victory, the enhanced voter choice and competitiveness of the race is most evident in that four candidates each received more than 20% of the vote. jimmy carter's 12% margin of victory over henry jackson in 1976 was another moderately decisive vic­ tory. voters again were offered greater choice, as shown by four candi­ dates each receiving at least 12% of the vote. pennsylvania additionally. contrihutpd to thp winnowing process in 1976 because humphrey de­ cided not to enter the primary and jackson bowed out of the race follow­ ing his loss in pennsylvania. the 1984 primary featured active campaigns by walter mondale, gary hart, and jesse jackson. mondale's 12% mar­ gin of victory was moderately decisive, yet the nomination was still in doubt at the time of the primary. the outcome bolstered the mondale campaign, which had lost seven of the initial 11 primaries (bartels 1988). election day competitiveness and voter choice experienced a dramatic decay following the 1984 primary. despite multiple candidates appear­ ing on the ballot, the democratic primaries in 1988 and 1992 featured one-candidate dominance. the dominance was exhibited by majority vote victories, minimal campaignine from other candidates, and margins of victory in excess of 30%. the relative competitiveness and enhanced voter choice in early demo­ cratic party races and the 1980 gop race is not surprising, given that pennsylvania used to have a relatively early primary date. pennsylvania was the seventh of only 27 states to hold a presidential preference pri­ mary in 1976 and thirteenth of 32 primary states in 1980. as a result, when a nomination actually was contested, pennsylvania voters were given the opportunity to influence the selection process. reduced com­ petitiveness in more recent election years is expected because the presi­ dential candidate winnowing process was complete prior to each elec­ tion date. frontloading activity since the 1980s eroded pennsylvania's 57 relative calendar position, to the point that it was twenty-third of 39 gop primary states in 1992 aml lhirty-fin;i uf 43 gop ~tates in 1996. hoping to reverse the non-competitive primary trend, while establish­ ing an influential position in the presidential selection process that might spark voter interest, numerous sponsors introduced legislation in the penn­ sylvania house and senate in early 1999 to alter the 2000 state primary date (cattabiani 1999). each of the bills called for frontloading by making a permanent change forward from the legally mandated primary date of the fourth tuesday in april. the bills varied only in exact placement on the calendar and whether or not the presidential preference primary was to be separated from the general primary election. preferred primary dates in the bills included the first, second, and third tuesdays in march.5 nulle uf the~e bills was reported out of committee in either chamber of the state legislature. they all failed to attract sufficient support from com­ mittee chairs, committee members, and the rank and file to compel even a vote atthe committee level (associated press state and local wire 1999a). although no single alternative sparked overwhelming support, some in­ terest in examining a date change persisted among lawmakers. the legis­ lature finally established a task force charged with examining the impli­ cations of moving pennsylvania's annual primary date to september, and examining the cost and consequences of holding separate primaries dur­ ing presidential election years (durantine 1999a, 1999b; race 1999). in october 1999; a bill was introduced calling for a one-time calendar shift of the 2000 prim.ary from the fourth tuesday in april to may 2. spun­ sors introduced the bill in response to pleas from religious leaders and local election boards to change the date because it conflicted with a reli­ gious holiday (hartzell 1999). the change was widely supported. follow­ ing a floor amendment changing the primary date from may 2 to april 4, the bill was unanimously approved in both chambers and signed into law. although pennsylvania's legislators refused to act on numerous frontloading alternatives, two questions make further scrutiny of the impact of this decision worthwhile: what was the impact of staying late in 2000, and what might have happened if pennsy lvania had moved for­ ward to the first tuesday of march during the 2000 primary season? the initial answer lo the first queslion is sllai1:5hlforward ami predict­ able. the results of the 2000 presidential primary indicate a continuation of the recent non-competitive trend for both parties. even though the official primary date was moved forward three weeks, peru1sylvania re­ mained near the end of the primary season and did not leapfrog a single state in that jump forward. the 54% margin of victory in the democratic primary and 51 % margin of victory in the republican primary were un­ derstandably high because democratic candidate al gore and republi­ can george w. bush each had secured a suhicient number of delegates to 58 win his partys nomination three weeks prior to the election. further con­ sideration of the first question and initial probing into the second re­ quire a comparison of voter choice and campaign activity in pennsylva­ nia with that in other states facing similar frontloading decisions in 2000. assessing the impact of state frontloading decisions in 2000 to identify variations in individual state influence on the presidential selection process, i examine a range of variables measuring the actual value of individual state decisions to adjust their position on the 2000 primary calendar. 111 ii1t'dtiuring the impact of these state decisions, i fo­ cus on a systematic comparison between states that moved their election date from an earlier position in 1996 and states that rejected frontloading proposals in favor of retaining their position at the later stages of the primary season. specific measurement variables include voter participa­ tion rates by state/, active candidates on election day, candidate cam­ paign stops by state, voter attentiveness at the time of the primary,' com­ petitiveness of elections, and debates by state. table 2 displays the republican party campaign activity and election outcome results for selected states that moved to an earlier primary date and states that resisted the frontloading trend for 2000.8 i refer to the former set of states as early 111.0ver (em) slales dnd to the latter tiet as move resistant (mr) states. early mover states are those states that moved forward on the calendar in search of an exclusive early date or to join a bloc primary with other states. in some instances the bloc primary takes on a regional character, whereas in other instances the bloc is just a union of participating states (polsby and wildavsky 2001). move resistant states are those states that rejected pleas to move up in the 2000 primary sea­ son, knowing that they were retaining a calendar date that was very likely to fo11ow thp completion of the nomination stage winnowing process. the most visible distinguishing characteristic of the early mover states in 2000 was size. compared with other years when smaller states strate­ gically moved forward in search of a unique dale, lhe luouentiul muvers in 2000 were mostly large states seeking proportional influence over the nomination process similar to what they wielded in the general election. the most prominent early mover states in 2000 were michigan, wash­ ington, california, and ohio. michigan and washington each moved up four weeks to establish distinctive early date republican party prima­ ries. california and ohio moved their unified statewide primaries up three weeks and two weeks, respectively, to join the nationwide march 7 bloc primary the big foul" newcomers to the early primary season com­ bined for a hefty 16% of the total gop delegates in 2000, which goes a long way toward explaining the dramatic increase in the early march delegate counts mentioned previously. 59 table 2 state influence on the republican presidential selection process, 2000* primary state campaign debates active turnout voter margin ivlargin type visits campaigns change mv olvement of change at primary from 1996 index victory from 1996 california em 11 1 3 24% 46 24% -24(~ michigan em 15 1 3 143% 37 8% -9% ohio em 4 0 3 47% 46 21% -23% 0 washington em 5 0 3 307% 38 19% -23% \.0 lllinois mr 1 0 1 -10% 27 45% +3% new jersey mr 2 0 1 "1ooa> 20 66% -5% pennsylvania mr 3 0 1 -4% 22 50% +4% * em refers to early mover states and mr refers to move resistant states. campaign visits were tabulated by the author for the year 2000 only, with the count beginning on january 3,2000 and ending on the date of the state's primary. debate totals are talied from december 1999 to the date of the state's primary. voter turnout and margin of victory data were obtained from state election bureaus. the data relating to the big four early mover states dearly exhibit significant beneficial consequences for states moving up on the primary calendar. each state moved up in search of greater voter choice and can­ didate attentiveness, which is exactly what each state received. the states offered voters greater candidate choice and potential for influence, while also attracting greater attention from the candidates and the media dur­ ing a period when voter attentiveness was at or near its peak.9 michigan (143%) and washington (307%) experienced exceptionally strong increases in voter participation, and california (24%) and ohio (47%) saw sizeable increases as well.lo the frontloading decisions by these states produced competitive elections in 2000, which was a substantial improvement over 1996 when the winnowing process ended prior to each state's primary. table 2 also contains data regarding campaign activity and election outcomes in pennsylvania and two other prominent states that rejected appeals to move up significantly their 2000 primary date. the two other move resistant states are illinois, which dismissed legislation to move its date from the third tuesday in march, and new jersey, which rejected legislation to move its date from the first tuesday in june. data in table 2 indicate that these states had no impact on the winnowing process and attracted little campaign attention prior to the election. low levels of voter turnout, uncompetitive elections, and poor voter attentiveness scores are all due to nominations having been secured prior to these primaries. on the surface, the data from table 2 indicate that the frontloading decision for the early mover states generated substantial rewards for state voters and the states as a whole. when directly compared to competi­ tiveness and participation levels in move resistant states, the participa­ tory value of frontloading decisions is obvious. the final outcome of the michigan election, however, highlights the problem of uncertainty that can be associated with a date shift. despite the record primary turnout, candidate attentiveness to the state, substantial advertising, and media presence, john mccain's victory was in direct contrast with the desired intent of the principal supporters of the legislation to move the primary date forwardy in addition to the basic disparity between early mover states and move resistant states, an examination of aggregate election data from the 2000 gop primary season further supports the contention that extreme frontloading creates vast disparities among states in regard to candidate attention and the competitiveness of elections. the relative competitive­ ness of the early presidential preference primaries is indicated by an av­ erage 18.6% margin of victory for cop primaries, up to and including the march 7 super primary. this average margin is especially notewor­ thy when compared with the average 60% margin of victory in gop pri­ maries held after the march 7 primary bloc and the suspension of 61 mccain's campaign. 12 the absence of candidate attention to the voters or issues in these later states is additionally remarkable because onlv one of the 28 states that held primaries on datt~s after march 7, or did not sched­ ule a primary or caucus, had an official candidate visit prior to march 7. comparing pennsylvania and ohio examining the impact that a decision to move the primary date for­ ward might have had in pennsylvania requires comparative analysis. ohio is the ideal state for comparison with pennsylvania on election matters because of its similar size, voting history, and cycle for senatorial and gubernatorial elections. table 3 displays the long-standing similari­ ties between the two states in population and presidential voting prefer­ ences. the two states rank among the largest states in the union, and their diminishing influence in the electoral college is indicated at nearly identical rates. they also produced identical general election outcomes in presidential elections from 1972 through 1996. table 3 pennsylvania and ohio: electoral size and presidential election winners pennsylvania ohio electoral election electoral election votes winner votes winner and rank and rank 1968 29 (3) humphrey 26 (4) nixon 1972 27 (3) nixon 25 (6) nixon 197fi 27 ci) cartf'r 2s (fi) cartf'r 1980 27 (3) reagan 25 (6) reagan 1984 25 (4) reagan 23 (6) reagan 1988 25 (4) bush 23 (6) bush 1992 23 (5) clinton 21 (7) clinton 1996 23 (5) clinton 21 (7) clinton 2000 23 (5) gore 21 (7) bush 62 figure 1: pennsylvania and ohio general election turnouts in presidential and gubernatorial years, 1968 w~o.-----------------------------------------------~ ~~r---------~~~~-------'r---------~~---------'m ~+---------~----~----------~----~----------~--~ oh turnouts 2~+-------------------------------------------------~ 1~+-------------------------------------------------~ 196819701972 19741976197819801982 1984 198619881990 1992 1994 199619982000 figure 2: pennsylvania and ohio pt"esidential primary turnout, 1968 ~~------------------------------------------------~ 1~+---~~~~----------------------------------~~-; 1~+-~~------------------------------------------'-; 500000 +----------------------------------------------1 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 more than size and electoral preferences, the voting patterns and turn­ uut data fur tht: twu ::;tatt:::; ::;huw high conelalions for volelbehaviorover time at the general election and primary levels. figure 1 shows general election voter participation in presidential and gubernatorial years.13 the correlation between the two states from 1968 to 1998 is a statistically sig­ nificant pearson's r-value of .861 over 16 election cycles. this represents a strong association behveen the two time series, showing substantially similar patterns in historical voter participation. figure 2 shows an equally strong association between pennsylvania and ohio voter participation in presidential primaries from 1968 to 1996. the correlation between the two states is a statistically significant pearson's r-value of .862 over eight elections. both correlation coefficients were statistically significant at the .01 level. 63 table 4 pennsylvania and ohio: 2000 primary election impact pennsylvania ohio dem rep total dem rep total active campaigns 1 1 2 2 ,.., 5 .j at primary margin of victory 53.8% 50.0% 48.9% 21.0(7'0 pre-march 7 visits 0 0 0 4 4 8 total campaign 7 3 10 7 8 15 visits turnout change -2.8% -6.0% -4.3% 26.0% 45.1% 36.6% from 1996 voter involvement index 22 46 in addition to the similarities between the two states in size, electoral preferences, and voter participation rates, ohio is particularly useful for comparison with pennsylv;:micl heccll1se ohio approved legislation in 1999 to move the state primary date from the third tuesday in march to the first tuesday in march. this legislation followed similar legislation in 1993 moving the state primary date forward from a long-standing early may date. the 1999 frontloading legislation was supported by republi­ can party leaders in the state legislature and by republican governor robert taft (associated press state and local wire 1999b). many demo­ crats in the state opposed the move as an attempt to boost the presiden­ tial prospects of ohio congressman john kasich, a republican (colum­ bus dispatch 1999). that ohio moved its primary to an earlier date in the 2000 presiden­ til'll nominl'ltion cycle, one ('onsicletecl hllt tejectecl by pennsylvania legis­ lators, invites further comparison. table 4 shows several comparative indicators of electoral choice, competitiveness, participation, and cam­ paign activity for ohio and pennsylvania primaries in 2000. electoral choice and competitiveness differences can be seen in the multiplicity of active campaigns in ohio and lower margins of victory in the demo­ cratic and gop primaries. dramatic differences in voter turnout, candi­ date visits (especially those coming before victory was assured for both major party nominees), and voter involvement are additionally evident and can easily be attributed to state position on the primary calendar. 64 the most dramatic difference in table 4 is in voter participation. penn­ sylvania voter turnout in 2000 declined for both parties and declined statewide bv 4.3% from 1996 turnout. the 2000 pennsylvania turnout -' . figure represents a 40.8% decline from statewide presidential primary participation in 1992, and it was 52.1 % under the high participation point set during the lyi;o primary. ohio primary turnout in 2000 improved 36.6% statewide from 1996 and was almost 25% higher than turnout in 1992. the 2000 ohio participation rate was a 9.1 o,{) increase over the record statewide primary participation level set in 1988. candidate visits and campaign advertising expenditures also high­ light differences in statewide influence in the selection process and can­ didate attention to state issues and concerns. although al gore and george w. bush made several trips to pennsylvania during the official time period of lhe 2000 primary ~ea~on, no official candidates visited the state in 2000 before bush and gore had already attained presumptive nominee status. campaign advertising was additionally telling. bush and mccain each spent aggressively on campaign ads in ohio in the two weeks preceding the super tuesday primary. bush spent over $800,000 and mccain spent over $650,000 (columbus dispatch 2000). in contrast no official campaign ads ran in major pennsylvania markets before the winnowing process was completely over. although the data in table 4 show significant differences between the two states in competitiveness and participation, the comparison requires additional empirical analysis. i employ forecasting analysis to determine the impact lhal a firsl tuesday ill march primary date may have had on pennsylvania voter participation in 2000. the process involves model­ ing historical voter participation rates in pennsylvania and ohio, and then projecting voter turnout rates for 2000 by using forecasting applica­ tions provided in autobox version 4.0.14 figure 3 depicts 2000 presidential primary forecasts derived after modeling participation rates in pennsylvania from 1968 through 1996. the 2000 forecast called for a 16% increase over 1996 turnout. the actual 2000 vote came in 4.3% under 1996 and 286,341 votes, or 17.5%, under the forecast. the actual 2000 vote was within the parameters of the lower limit of the forecast. figure 4 depicts the 2000 presidential primary fore­ cast derived afler modelii 19 participatiun ri:lte~ in ohio from 1968 through 1996. the 2000 forecast called for a 15.9% increase over the actual 1996 turnout. the actual 2000 ohio vote came in 36.6% over 1996 and 360)51 votes, or 17.9%, over the 2000 forecast. the actual participation figures from 2000 were 12.4% over the upper limit forecast. because the dramatic increase over forecast participation in ohio was due to the frontloaded date change and the resulting improvements in voter choice, competitiveness, interest, and attention, it is logical to ex65 figure 3: pennsylvania presidential primary voting 1968-2000: with 2000 forecasts 15000){) /"" / "...... ---...., .... ./ "'" ---epa primary votes ".... / --.2000 forecast ~ 1 ... upper forecast limit " * lower forecast limit 2500000 2000000 500000 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 figure 4: ohio presidential primary voting 1968-2000 with 2000 forecasts ~ ~-----------------------------------------------, 1~j-~~--~============~---------------j --eoh primary votes 1000000 1---------1 --.2000 forecast ... upper forecast limit 500000 r-______ ~l_-=*_·_·~lo~w:e~r~fu:r:ec~as:t~1i~m~it~------------------~ 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 pect that a similar increase would have resulted from such a change in pennsylvania. by applying the 12.4% increase over the upper limit fore­ cast in ohio to the pennsylvania forecast t projpct thm 2.3 million penn­ sylvanians would have participated in the hypothetical first tuesday in march contest. this figure represents a dramatic 63.9% increase over ac­ t:ual voter participation in the 1996 pennsylvania presidential primary and suggests that 961,000 more voters would have participated in 2000 than actually did. although this predicted participation is a dramatic increase from 1996, it is only a 1.5% increase over 1992 turnout and is less than actual voter turnout in 1988. one difference betw·een pennsylvania and ohio is that pennsylvania's primaries are closed, whereas ohio's are open. the early date in ohio might have encouraged a larger number of non-affiliated voters to go to 66 the polls than penn5ylvania's closed primary would have allowed. al­ though the format difference may have contributed to some variation between the states in turnout, closed primaries in p€lu1sylvania would not have prevented an upsurge in overall turnout similar to ohio's. his­ torically, a strong similarity in primary election participation rates has existed between the two states (see figure 2). despite the difference in primary formats, the states exhibited very similar voter participation patterns in prior events. pennsylvania's political culture and registration rules also encourage major partisan affiliation. over 90% of registered voters were enrolled as democrats or republicans at the time of the 2000 primary, indicating a high level of party affiliation. this high rate of party affiliation, along with state law allowing voters to declare or change party affiliation up to thirty days prior to the election, left few potential voters excluded from participation on primary day if they were inclined to sup­ port one of the major candidates. increased participation rates in the republican and democratic prima­ ries in ohio fell short of the secretary of state's projections (brazaitis 2000). unlike claims from election officials and pundits in new hampshire and michigan, the post-election analysis of voter turnout rates in ohio was de­ void of references to dramatic increases in participation due to john mccain's appeal to non-traditional primary voters. a range of states holding early primaries in 2000 experienced increases in voter participation. the turnout increases were not exclusive to open primary states but included equally dramatic increases in participation from closed primary states such as con­ necticut, maine, maryland, rhode island, and south carolina. potential impact on other ~tatewide l.jrimaries although a decision to frontload the 2000 pennsylvania presidential primary date likely would have led to enhanced competitiveness and substantially increased actual voter turnout it prompts another ques­ tion. what effect would dramatically improved participation rates have had on other races in the state if pennsylvania had held an early unified primary in 2000? critics of the various legislative proposals in pennsyl­ vania cited concerns about cost, uncertainty, and disruption to the status quo when speaking out against frontloading and splitting the primaries (durantine 1999a; mccarthy 1999; race 1999; rubinkam 1999). many pennsylvania legislators and party officials were willing to consider fu­ ture changes to the primary date, but they feared the impact that changes to the primary date might have on state legislative races. concerns over potential disnlption and uncertainty were compelling in 2000 given the very narrow partisan distribution in the house and the looming specter of redistricting following the 2000 census. the prospect of significant in­ creases in voter participation during the 2000 primary, particularly among 67 non-traditional primary voters, did not arouse support from the state­ wide political community. my analysis of the potential disruption to the status quo due to in­ creased turnout and an earlier primary date involves scrutiny of ohio and pennsylvania state senate and state house election results in 2000. to assess the potential impact of a frontloaded primary, i first determine the extent to which state legislative seats were competitive and contested in 2000. i then examine election outcomes in the context of voter participa­ tion rates in both states. potential impact calculations in ohio assess the potential for change in electoral outcomes if turnout had not increased significantly in 2000, while potential impact calculations in pennsylva­ nia evaluate the potential for change in electoral outcomes if turnout had increased significantly in 2000. i operationalize potential impact for nar­ row margins of victory (less than 20%) and close races (less than 10%). potential impact for narrow margins is determined by counting the num­ ber of candidates from narrow margin of victory primaries who won or were defeated by less than 15% of the vote on general election day. po­ tential impact for close margins is delennlned by counting the number of candidates from close margin of victory primaries who either won or were defeated by less than 10% of the vote on general election day. the post-election analysis detailed in table 5 shows that the frontloaded primary date and the increased turnout in ohio had a sizeable potential impact on the outcome of races for the state house of representatives. the analysis for narrow margins of victory shows that 28 of the 99 ohio state house races conceivably could have ended with a different victor on general election day if voter turnout had been significantly dimin­ ished on the date of the primary. the calculations still show a dramatic potential impact of 21 seats out of 99 when the close margin of victory ::;tamlanl i::; applit!u. tht! hi~h ratt! uf l:hallt!ugt!u ral:t!o anu lilultituut! uf competitive elections in ohio is partly attributable to the high number of open seat races in the ohio house. because of state imposed term limits and attrition, only 57 of the 99 races featured incumbents in 2000. the potential impact on the ohio house of representatives was re­ stricted to the individual candidate level and did not show significant pros­ pects for impact in the partisan make-up or control in the state legislature. the preand post-election partisan distribution figures showed identical levels of gop domination in each chamber of the legislature. although the close race analysis shows that 21 seats conceivably could have had a different winner, only six of the 21 would have resulted in a different party huluiil~ tht! uffil:t!. similar ailaly::;b uf tht! ohiu st!ilait! raet!::, ohuwo ::;ig! lifj­ cantly diminished potential impact. when the close margin of victory stan­ dard is applied, only one of the 16 ohio senate races would qualify as potentially affected if voter turnout were significantly depressed. 68 table 5 contested primaries and close elections in pennsylvania and ohio, 2000 state senate state house u.s. congress pa oh pa oh pa oh total seats up 25 16 203 99 21 19 for election total potential 50 32 406 198 42 38 primaries total contested 1 5 32 56 7 10 primaries (8.0%) (15.6'1'0 ) (7:9%) (28.3%) (16.7%) (26.3%) primaries with 3 3 12 36 4 5 n arrow margins (6.0%) (9.4%) (3.0%) (18.2%) (9.5%) (13.2%) «20%) primaries with 1 1 5 25 3 3 close margins (2.0%) (3.1%) (1.2%) (12.6%) (7.1%) (9.4%) « 10%) potential impact 1 of 25 2 of 16 8 of 203 28 of 99 2 of2l 1 of 19 on general seats seats seats seats seats seats election affected affected affected affected affected affected outcomes for (4.0%) (12.5%) (3.9%) (28.3%) (9.5%) (5.3%) n arrow margins the analysis of the impact on pennsylvania state legislature races con­ tained in table 5 shows an entirely different story. although partisan control of the house of representatives was up in the air going into the 2000 election, the limited number of contested primary races and the widespread absence of competitiveness were staggering. of the 406 po­ tentially contested primaries for the 203 seats in the house of represen­ tatives, only 32 races involved multiple candidates for the party desig­ nation. of the 32 contested races, only 12 had narrow margins of victory and only five involved close races. potential impact calculations based upon the narrow margin of victory standard show that substantial in­ creases in voter participation may have led to a different candidate pre­ vailing in eight of the 203 races. the close margin of victory standard shows that only two seats may have had a different outcome if voter participation were significantly increased from 0 frontloodcd primary date. table 5 also displays a similar absence of challenges at the primary level for the pennsylvania senate races, and it shows very limited poten­ tial impact. even when the narrow margin standard is applied, only one 69 of the 25 pennsylvania senate races would qualify as potentially affected if votpt hltnout .crignificantly increased. given the pre-election partisan distribution of 30 republicans and 20 democrats, there is no chance that increased turnout would have threatened partisan control of the penn­ sylvania senate. the absence of challenges and the limited competitiveness of pennsyl­ vania legislative races highlight the importance of incumbency in deter­ mining election competitiveness and outcomes. the entrenchment of in­ cumbents in the pennsylvania political system (only 11 of the 203 house districts featured open seat races) makes voter participation rates some­ what irrelevant, for incumbents are afforded advantages that discourage serious challengers and create significant imbalances in campaign re­ sources. it is also unlikely that a legislative change to the 2000 primary date would have produced any significant increase in competitive chal­ lenges for house and senate seats in pennsylvania. a late decision to frontload the primary to early march would most likely have had the op­ posite effect by creating a shorter candidate recruitment period, a narrower fund raising window, and compressed petition drive deadlines that would have further discouraged challengers and disfavored outsider candidates. table 5 also includes data regarding the competitiveness and potential impact of turnout changes on congressional races in ohio and pennsylva­ nia. analysis of the primary outcomes in ohio shows that significant re­ ductions in voter participation would not have affected the outcome of any of the 19 races for the u.s. house of representatives .. contested pri­ maries were few and competitiveness was limited because incumbents were seeking reelection in 18 of the 19 districts. scrutiny of the congres­ sional primary races in pennsylvania shows that significant increases in voter participation potentially would have affected only one of the 21 cam­ paigns for the u.s. house of representatives. the absence of competitive­ ness in pennsylvania is attributable to incumbents seeking reelection in 19 of the 21 districts.is additional scrutiny of the u.s. senate races in penn­ sylvania and ohio shows that dramatic changes in voter participation rates would not have affected the ultimate election outcome in either state. increased voter turnout from a frontloaded primary date in pennsyl­ vania would have had a little impact on the outcome of elections across the state. the paucity of contested primaries and competitive races of­ fered little chance for upheaval from a significant increase in voter turn­ out. thus, legislators' fears of the potential impact on non-presidential races in the state were largely unfounded. despite the limited potential impact, the closeness of the partisan make-up in the house (deadlocked at 100 to 100 with three vacancies at the time of the 8pnpra 1 plpction) made the possibility of disruption to even one campaign worthy of con­ cern to both political parties. 70 conclusion a review ot multiple comparisons between states that participated in the frontloading trend for 2000 and states that resisted frontloading clearly shows that individual state decisions to select art early date offer greater prospects for enhanced voter choice, competitiveness of elections, and higher voter participation. despite this potential, legislators considering a move forward on the primary calendar should be aware that frontloading does not guarantee successful early influence. the effec­ tiveness of date selection decisions are subject to minimizing influence by other frontloading states and avoidance strategies by savvy campaign managers. the recent frontloading trend has compressed the early sec­ tion of the primary season so greatly that frontloading states must either separate their statewide primaries or hold early unified primaries. when they separate their primaries they incur greater administrative and fiscal costs and polentially diminished voler lurnoul for non-presidential pri­ maries. when they hold unified primaries they create greater adminis­ trative burdens and face the perceived risk that large increases in voter turnout would disrupt the status quo of expected outcomes in non-presi­ dential races. comparative analysis and forecasting analysis between ohio and pennsylvania show that a significant move forward on the 2000 primary calendar by pennsylvania would have generated significant increases in voter participation. non-participation in the frontloading trend in 2000 assured that pennsylvania would miss out on an opportunity for greater voter choice, competitiveness, and campaign activity. the politically prag­ matic decision to retain the state's late primary date was a risk aversive action that displayed a clear preference for avoiding uncertainty and upheaval over pleas for greater political influence and participation. given the 1im.iled nalw"e of compelitiveness in pennsylvania primary elections, a concern with uncertainty and upheaval is unwarranted. 71 notes 1. in response to encroachment from states establishing early gop primrlrips or non-binding caucuses, new hampshire and iowa moven their dates forward on the calendar prior to the 1992 and 2000 primaries. the february i, 2000 new hampshire primary date was a full three weeks earlier than the traditional fourth tuesday of february date of the 1970s and 19805. since the official 2000 primary season still ran into june, the jump forward had the effect of lengthening the overall primary season. 2. i use this format rather than the weekly tally format of mayer (2001) and morton and williams (2001) because the movement forward by new hampshire in 1996 and 2000 disrupts the weekly tally comparison between primary sea­ sons. this format more effectively highlights the compressed nature of the del­ egate selection process in the early weeks and months of the primary season. 3. for example, local elections officials in pennsylvania and ohio expressed opposition to frontloading proposals for 2000. they criticized the proposals be­ cause the early calendar dates would disrupt established filing deadlines, hinder campaign worker recruitment, and place additional stress on election officials seeking to complete administrative tasks in a shorter time frame and during the holiday season. pennsylvania election officials were additionally opposed to pro­ posals that would split the primaries. they stated that running two primaries would increase costs by over 50% and would minimize essential preparation time for the general election (duran tine 1999a; mccarthy 1999; race 1999). 4. the lack of competitiveness in the 1970s and 1980s was mostly due to an ab­ sence of challengers, as the gop selection process was routinely ceded to incumbent presidents running for reelection or incumbent vice-presidents seeking the party nod. 5. hb 1610 pn 1965 and sb 233 pn 242 each proposed to move the presiden­ tial preference primary to the first tuesday in march. the senate version of the bill proposed to move the rest of the primaries to september; whereas the house bill left the remaining primaries in april. these two bills attracted more co-spon­ sors than any other frontloading bills considered in 1999. sb 91 pn 86 proposed moving all primaries up to the second tuesday in march and sb 258 pn 259 proposed moving only the presidential primary to the second tuesday. finallyi lib 653 f'n 691 proposed moving lhe pre::>idelltial primary tu the third 1uesday in march but holding all others in september. 6. my decision to focus on changes in aggregate vote totals between election years is predicated on the understanding that determinations of voler lurnuul vary substantially across states and even across elections within a single state. using simple vote counts for gop candidates provides a helpful and basic sum­ 'mary of the number of individuals taking part in the election while avoiding issues of asymmetry created by using non-uniform measures of voter turnout rates. see beck and hershey (2001) for an informative discussion of the problems inherent in creating uniform determinations of voter turnout across states. 7. i determine voter attentiveness by the value of the voter involvement in­ dex at the time of the primary (vanishing voter project 2000). the index repre­ sents a compilation of responses to survey questions measuring nationwide voter attentiveness and involvement. the index was updated weekly throughout the campaign and began the new year at a low of 12% voter involvement. 72 8. since president clinton competed in the 1996 democratic primary without opposition, the democratic turnout and competitiveness numbers are mislead­ ing. i use only gop data in this table to produce more reliable comparisons. 9. republican campaign activity in these states pales in comparison to candi­ date activity in iowa, new hampshire, and south carolina. these states moved up their early primary dates from 1996 in an attempt to preserve their early in­ fluence. iowa had 46 candidate visits and two debates, new hampshire had 74 visits and three debates, and south carolina benefited from 44 candidate visits and two debates. 10. despite democratic party rules restricting states from holding binding primary elections prior to march 7, the democratic party of washington state scheduled a non-binding primary for the same day as the gop primary. this drew the attention of the event-starved democratic candidates (who scheduled 10 visits to the state prior to the non-binding primary) and increased statewide and national attention to the primary. 11. michigan act 71, of the public acts of 1999, was supported by the gover­ nor, the lieutenant governor, the speaker of the michigan house of representa­ tives, and the michigan secretary of state. each of these officials endorsed bush for the republican nomination, as did numerous official sponsors of the legisla­ tion. mid-1999 polling reported overwhelming support for bush among likely michigan voters (ceasar and busch 2001). 12. even after a candidate withdraws from the race, in most cases his name re­ mains on subsequent ballots. non-active candidates still attract a measurable, and at times substantial, number at votes, thus preventing unanimous election results. 13. total votes cast is superior to voter turnout as a measurement of compari­ son between pennsylvania and ohio for this time period. although both states experienced modest population increases between 1960 and 2000, the popula­ tion swings are similar and are much less substantial than changes in numbers of registered voters. voter registration numbers in both states varied dramatically over time, causing the turnout calculation as a percentage of registered voter~ to be unstable and less reliable than actual participation. that ohio did not require registration or maintain voter registration statistics prior to 1978 further impedes a turnout-based comparison. 14. autobox version 4.0 is distributed by automated forecasting systems, inc. of hatboro, pennsylvania. 15. all the illclllllb~nls seeking reelection in ohio and pennsylvania retained their seats in the 2000 general election. for a thorough breakdown of incum­ bency advantages that discourage serious challengers and promote high reelec­ tion rates in the u.s. congress and in state legislatures see jacobson (2001) and maisel (1999). 73 references associated press state and local wire. 1999a. "lawmaker wants to move up pennsylvania primary." may 3. __ . 1999b. "taft signs primary election bill into law." june:l7. bartels, larry m. 1988. presidential primaries and the dynamics ~f public choice. princeton: princeton university press. beck, paul allen, and marjorie randon hershey. 2001. party politics in america. 9th ed. new york: addison wesley longman. bibby, john f. 2000. politics, parties, alld elections in america. 4th ed. belmont, ca: wadsworth. brazaitis, torn. 2000. "record turnout of ohio voters predicted today." the plain dealer, march 7, sa. buell, emmett h. jr. 2000. "the invisible primary. " in 111 pursuit of the white house 2000: how we choose our presidential nominees, ed. william mayer. new york: chatham. busch, andrew. 1997. outsiders and openness in the presidential nominating sys­ tem. l-'ittsburgh: university ot pittsburgh press. __ .2000. "new features of the 2000 presidential nominating process: repub­ lican reforms, frontloading's second wind, and early voting." in in pursuit of the white house 2000: how we choose our presidential nominees, ed. will­ iam mayer. new york: chatham. cattabiani, mario f. 1999 "legislators seek to build interest in primary elec­ tium;." murning cull (allentuwn), may 18, b2. ceasar, james w., and andrew e. busch. 2001. the perfect tie: the true story of the 2000 presidential election. lanham, md: rowman & littlefield publishers. columbus dispatch. 1999. "senate ok means ohio likely to have march 2000 primary." may 26, la. . __ . 2000. "candidates pull out stops for weekend." march 4, 1a. cook, rhoades. 1992. "the nomination process." in the quest jor national office, ed. stephen j. wayne and clyde wilcox. new york: st. martin's press. durantine, peter. 1999a. "legislative task force to consider changing primary date to september." associated press state and local wire, june 24. __ . 1999b. "panel will report in one year on whether to change primary election date." associated press state and local wire, august 18. edwards, george r, and stephen j. wayne. 2000. prl'."idential l.eadership: politics and policy making. 5th ed. new york: st. martin's / wadsworth publishing. geer, john g. 1989. nominating presidents: an evaluation of voters and primaries. new york: greenwood press. bargen, michael g., and william g. mayer. 2000. "the modern politics of presi­ dential selection: how changing the rules really did change the game." in in pursuit of the white house 2000: how we choose our presidential nomi­ nees, ed. william mayer. new york: chatham. hartzell, dan. 1999. "jews ask change in election date." morning call (allen­ town), september 2, b1. haskell, john. 2000. "a quarter century of direct democracy in presidential nomination campaigns: what's the verdict?" in political parties, campaigl1s, and elections, ed. robert e. diclerico. upper saddle river, nj: prentice hall. 74 jackson, john 5., and william crotty. 2001. the politics o.fpresidel1tial selection. 2nd ed. new york: addison wesley longman. jacobson. gary c. 2001. the politics of congressional elections. 5th ed. new york: addison wesley longman lengle, james. 1997. "evaluating and reforming the presidential nominating process." in understanding the presidency, ed. james pfiffner and roger davidson. new york: addison wesley longman. lichter, s. robert. 1992. "how the press covered the primaries." in the quest for national office, ed. stephenj. wayne and clyde wilcox. new york: st. martin's press. maiset 1. sandy. 1999. parties and elections i11 american: the electoral process. 3rd ed. lanham, md: rowman and littlefield publishers, inc. mayer, william g. 1997. "the presidential nominations." in the election of1996: reports and interpretations, ed. gerald pomper. chatham, nj: chatham house publishers. __ .2001. "the presidential nominations." in the election of la au: reports and interpretatiol1s, ed. gerald pomper. chatham, nj: chatham house publish­ ers. mccarthy, john. 1999. "house votes to move primary, despite local protests." associated press state and local wire, april 21. morton, rebecca, and kenneth c. williams. 2001. learning by voting: sequential choices in presidential primaries and other elections. ann arbor: university of michigan press. nye, joseph jr., philip zelikow, and david king. 1997. vv71y people don't trust government. cambridge, ma: harvard university press. patterson, thomas. 1994. out of order. new york: alfred a. knopf. polsby, nelson w., and aaron wildavsky. 2000. presidential elections: strategies and structures of american politics. 10th ed. new york: chatham house pub­ lishers. race, michael. 1999. "pennsylvania ponders moving primary date." morning call (allentown), august 18, a3. rubinkam, michael. 1999. "republicans push against early primaries, unveil new internet technology." associated press state and local wire, july 9. vanishing voter project. 2000. "public involvement and the 2000 nominating campaign: implications for electoral reform." a report presented to the national press club april 27. wayne, stephen j. 2001. the road to the white house, 2000. new york: st. martin's / wadsworth. 75 93 the pennsylvania political science association founded in 1939, the pennsylvania political science association (ppsa) is the nation’s oldest state political science association. its mission has always been to promote scholarship, research, and the exchange of ideas within the pennsylvania community of political scientists. ppsa draws its membership principally from the political science and public administration faculties of pennsylvania’s public and private colleges and universities but also includes government professionals and faculty members from surrounding states. ppsa’s annual conference includes dozens of panelists covering a wide variety of subject areas. while university faculty compose the vast majority of participants, legislators, 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political science and public administration p.o. box 730 kutztown university kutztown, pa 19530 microsoft word volume15.doc commonwealth: a journal of political science  volume 15, number 2  september 2009  2009 ppsa/lorl, pa house of reps. issn 0890-2410 viewing representative behavior through the lens of social and political identity robin lauermann messiah college much scholarly attention has been paid to the representative activities of members of the national legislature. equally important to representative democracy, however, are the perceptions and evaluations of these members by their constituents. using the 2000 american national election studies survey, this article assesses the impact of social and political identity in the formation of constituency perceptions of members of the u.s. house of representatives. demographic characteristics and political predispositions affect the relevance of the four measures of legislator responsiveness—policy, casework, district service, and symbolic responsiveness—to each constituent’s evaluation. ethnicity, age, gender, and education affect the degree of importance of each measure to constituents; women, minorities, and older citizens are more concerned with symbolic actions on the part of their representatives. furthermore, the descriptive composition of a representative’s constituency has an influence not only with respect to policy choices the member may make, but also with regard to understanding how particular behaviors are successful in establishing a relationship between the representative and those represented. constituent evaluations epresentative democracy provides a governmental framework wherein citizens elect officials who will make policy for the nation. elections legitimate the actions of policymakers. yet, officials are not given free reign once in office, for citizens will ultimately be able to assess their performance and hold them accountable for their actions at the next election. elections are central to the representative process because they provide a means for placing new representatives in office and removing those who have not satisfied their constituents. while voting decisions are an important part of the representational r 66 viewing representative behavior through the lens of social and political identity relationship, less noticed are the factors used to make them, particularly those that shape constituent evaluations of representatives. past research has focused on what congressional members do in office (fenno 1977; fenno 1996; fiorina 1982; kingdon 1989; mayhew 1974; miller and stokes 1963). member behavior is crucial to the formation of constituent perception of the representatives’ behavior that will contribute to the voting decision. individuals who do not believe that their interests are being represented by a governing official may become discontented with the officeholder and possibly with the political system itself. citizens who think government is not responsive to their needs may become more likely to seek alternative help outside regular political channels. this shift in political action can be dangerous to the stability of the political system. consequently, it is important to understand constituent expectations within the representative process because voters have the ultimate authority to revoke the power of the representatives. when individuals cast their vote, however, there is one additional consideration that affects their decision whether or not to extend the service of their member: their retrospective evaluations of the member’s behavior. constituent evaluations therefore provide a crucial link between a member’s behavior and a constituent’s decision in the voting booth (lauermann 2001). while the constituent perspective was relatively neglected by scholars in the past, it has received attention in more recent studies, especially in elections literature focusing on the “personal vote” and incumbency advantage (cain, ferejohn, and fiorina 1987; erikson and wright 1993; jacobson 1981; jacobson 2001; johannes and macadams 1981; parker 1989; serra and cover 1992; serra and moon 1994; yiannakis 1981). many of these studies, however, center their analysis on the vote itself rather than on the factors affecting the evaluation of member behavior. voting decisions involve factors relevant not only to the representative but also to the challenger and to election-specific contexts. constituent evaluations evolve prior to the vote decision, so understanding them is a prerequisite of understanding the vote. more attention should be given to identifying the factors affecting these evaluations. furthermore, many studies have focused on only a portion of the factors that affect constituents’ evaluations of their representatives. a representative may cast a vote on a piece of legislation, provide particular or general constituency service, or engage in other activities that may inspire the support of constituents. researchers who fail to robin lauermann 67 address all relevant behaviors will achieve a less complete understanding of the representative process. past research has demonstrated that constituent perceptions of member voting behavior, casework, district service, and symbolic actions contribute significantly to their general evaluation of member behavior. among these and other personal and national factors, perceptions of symbolic connections are strongest (lauermann 2001). the relative importance of each factor may vary, though, depending upon the characteristics of an individual constituent. this article will examine the way in which political and social identities shape the relevance of multifaceted representative behaviors in the construction of constituent evaluations. attention to multiple components of representation provides a much more accurate reflection of the “complexities of the real world” (eulau and karps 1978, 62). components of responsiveness a retrospective view of voter evaluation is based on the idea that elections serve as a means for constituents to reward or punish elected officials for their past behavior. v.o. key (1966) laid the foundation for retrospective voting theory by noting that voters conduct an “appraisal” of past behavior of elected officials. similarly, fenno’s “theory of accountability” holds that “if members want to be reelected, they know that they will be held accountable at the next election and their behavior will be more responsive” (1978, 23). fenno (1996, 78) reiterates in his later work on senatorial campaigns that the representative relationship is reciprocal because “candidates want support and they offer responsiveness; citizens want responsiveness and they offer support.” thus the voting decision is made in light of an evaluation of member activities. moreover, citizens care not about the means by which politicians make policy but about the results that come from policy (fiorina 1981, 8; wahlke 1978). constituent perceptions of these factors require retrospective evaluations of the specific acts as well as the overall performance of a representative. constituent evaluations stem from a number of sources, including evaluations of responsiveness, party identification, and national factors (lauermann 2001). although evaluations of responsiveness are relevant, the relative importance of different member behaviors may vary across 68 viewing representative behavior through the lens of social and political identity individuals. eulau and karps (1978) note that many studies focus on a more limited understanding of member behavior as issue representation. they propose a four-part conception that includes policy, service, allocative responsiveness, and symbolic responsiveness. these components of representation can be distinguished by their degree of partisanship and tangibility (specific or concrete) in outcome. while eulau and karps offer a valuable conceptualization, attempts to operationalize this expanded perspective of representation have been limited (lauermann 2001). not surprisingly, many of these efforts focus on the voting behavior of representatives and the impact of their voting decisions on their electoral fortunes. policy responsiveness represents the “presence of a meaningful connection between constituent (public) policy preferences or demands and the representative’s official behavior” (eulau and karps 1978, 63). at the individual level, policy responsiveness is indicated by closeness in issue positions.1 people who share their representative’s ideology are more likely to be satisfied with activities in this venue (johannes and macadams 1981). while congress is first and foremost a lawmaking body, policy is not the only relevant criterion for evaluation. there are several nonpartisan means of responsiveness, i.e., actions that can draw support from individuals who are not members of the representative’s party since these actions do not involve a firm policy commitment.2 one such method includes the “advantages which the representative is able to obtain for particular constituents” (eulau and karps 1978, 64). more commonly known as casework, this activity involves member actions to cut through bureaucratic red tape. representatives may help an individual having difficulty obtaining benefits from an administrative agency, e.g., social security disability benefits or remuneration from the black lung program for former miners. fiorina (1989) argues that members of congress deliberately perpetuate the bureaucratic maze in order to create opportunities for themselves to build electoral credit. constituents evaluate more favorably members who provide such services (cover 1977; rivers and fiorina 1989; serra 1991; serra and cover 1992; serra and moon 1994). these activities draw support from constituents of all partisan stripes since they are not linked to issues. a second nonpartisan means of responsiveness, allocative, involves “advantages and benefits presumably accruing to a representative’s robin lauermann 69 district as a whole” (eulau and karps 1978, 65). known also as district assistance or “pork barrel,” allocative responsiveness includes a broader category of tangible awards than does casework. legislators can bring public works projects or other federal programs to the district. witness the budget appropriations process in 2004 when members of the transportation and infrastructure committee generated $12 billion in district funding. a democrat, tim holden, represents pennsylvania’s primarily republican 17th district. yet, he managed to win reelection in 2002 by a 51% to 49% margin in a district reapportioned to benefit his republican opponent, incumbent george gekas. holden was reelected even more handily in 2004 (59% to 39%) against challenger scott paterno, which may not have been surprising but for the challenger’s name recognition as the son of the celebrated penn state football coach, joe paterno. while some portion of holden’s win may be explained by his relatively more conservative voting record as a blue dog democrat, he was certainly aided by his success in obtaining funds for the district, as he invariably advertises in his frequent newsletters to constituents. between 2004 and 2009, for example, the 17th district received over $15 million in federal funding under the safe, accountable, flexible, and efficient transportation equity act. constituent perceptions of allocative responsiveness can therefore be a boon to representatives at the voting booth (cain, ferejohn, and fiorina 1987; jacobson 2001; stein and bickers 1994). accordingly, they are a crucial component of any model of constituent evaluations. lastly, constituents may evaluate their representatives based on a more nebulous but no less important criterion: symbolic responsiveness. symbolic responsiveness involves a relationship “built on trust and confidence expressed in the support that the represented gives to the representative and to which he responds by symbolic, significant gestures in order to, in turn, generate trust and support” (eulau and karps 1978, 66). these gestures appear on the surface to be important but often have little substance, e.g., appearing at a ribbon-cutting ceremony. this concept is akin to easton’s (1965) diffuse support of “general or positive sentiments” that allows representatives to weather periods of nonresponsiveness in other areas. in his seminal study of the impact of trust-generating activities, fenno (1978) notes that constituency service, in the form of “home style,” can provide a representative with greater freedom in the policymaking realm in washington. one of the more significant aspects of home style is “presentation of self.” building trust 70 viewing representative behavior through the lens of social and political identity takes time, so how does a member do it? according to fenno, members must show that they are qualified, experienced, competent, honest, at one with their district, and able to empathize with its people. in fact, evidence suggests that symbolic responsiveness is more important to voters than the other components of responsiveness (bianco 1994; sigelman, sigelman and walkrosz 1994; wahlke 1978). yet, few studies have incorporated this component within a more comprehensive framework (lauermann 2001). while each of these components of responsiveness has some level of importance, individual preferences and evaluations are likely to be shaped by personal experiences and factors. the social and political composition of a constituency may influence representative behavior as well. constituent identity in the field of social psychology, social identity theory conveys the relevance of one’s social identity in the construction of opinions. as robert lane (1974, 110) has framed the discussion: “identity . . . is the complex answer to the simple question ‘who am i?’” the social categories that construct one’s environment, such as ethnicity and gender, provide a social identity that shapes resulting opinions (hogg, terry, and white 1995, 260; kinder and sears 1985, 672). using factor analysis, hooper (1976) demonstrated that such reference groups as religion, ethnicity, sex, and class provide reliable indicators of social identity. the reference group attachment can create stereotypical perceptions among those with a shared group identity. social differences can thus produce distinctions in opinion (kinder and sears 1985; lane 1974; stets and burke 2000; turner 1987). although these distinctions may be based on the self-interest of the group, they may also develop from shared life experiences (erikson and tedin 2005, 177). moreover, the interactive effect of multiple layers of identity produces great variations across individuals. while the idea that political and social identities can affect perceptions of the citizen–government relationship is not new, past studies have focused on attitudes toward the government at large rather than on the particular officials who compose it (erikson and tedin 2005; lane 1974). among those identity characteristics unchangeable by individual action is ethnic identity. the most significant distinction between the opinions of whites and minorities concerns the appropriate role of robin lauermann 71 government in assisting minorities, whether that includes monetary assistance or affirmative action (erikson and tedin 2005, 188). this distinction holds even when controlling for socioeconomic differences, which often are mistaken for ethnic differences. african americans have shown greater concern for district and symbolic (particularly the identification component) factors (griffin and flavin 2007; tate 2003). minorities may consequently value activities by their member that are designed to help people both individually and as a constituency (cain, ferejohn, and fiorina 1987, 42). ethnic identity therefore is a significant factor in understanding constituent evaluations of member behavior. a constituent’s age may also affect member evaluations. younger americans tend to be less politically involved because they do not perceive most political activity to be relevant to their lives. youths are less likely to be aware of or concerned about policy matters, which parallels the relationship between age and general political knowledge and interest. cain, ferejohn, and fiorina (1987, 43) found that younger individuals are more concerned with district attentiveness, whereas older individuals are more concerned with casework and policy.3 these results are consistent with findings related to the impact of age on more general political opinions. while the young may not need public assistance themselves, they tend to be more supportive of government programs to help people (erikson and tedin 2005, 192–194). by contrast, certainly some policy focus on the part of older americans is self-interested, such as their concern about proposed changes to social security and medicare. another important social reference group is gender. although much has been written about the “gender gap,” the relevance of gender is perhaps less clear with regard to perceptions of representative behavior. much research has focused on the impact of gender, specifically feminist and nonfeminist perspectives, on policy attitudes (conover 1988; kaufmann and petrocik 1999) or on evaluations of male and female candidates (dolan 2001; huddy and terkildsen 1993) rather than on how gender may shape the expectations of elected officials. gender differences tend to be greatest with respect to compassion issues, such as increasing the quality and availability of education or protecting the less fortunate (erikson and tedin 2005, 209). cain, ferejohn, and fiorina (1987, 41) found that men tend to prefer oversight and policy behavior to constituency-related activities. support of constituency-related actions certainly is consistent with compassion concerns; yet, policy-based 72 viewing representative behavior through the lens of social and political identity behavior may offer the most systematic means of eradicating problems in these areas. among the more relevant reference groups, socioeconomic status has a variable impact on individual perceptions of representatives. economic cleavages have not been as distinct in america as they have been in other industrialized nations, yet there have been significant differences in preferences on economic issues across social strata (erikson and tedin 2005, 178–179; glynn et al. 1999, 227–229; kinder and sears 1985, 673). individuals from lower classes are more likely to favor programs benefiting poorer people. distinctions are not as large as expected once ideology is controlled for, as individuals of lower socioeconomic status tend to be less liberal or tolerant on noneconomic issues and thus are perhaps more likely to favor benefits to self and district. past research has shown that lower class individuals tend to favor constituency service because they are in greater need of the benefits (cain, ferejohn, and fiorina 1987; yiannakis 1981). in fact, cain, ferejohn, and fiorina (1987, 42) found that working class individuals ranked policy concerns as the third most important criterion for member behavior, whereas middle class individuals ranked it second. ultimately, expectations of representative behavior will be influenced by this group identity. education may also affect constituents’ views of what is important. although often considered a related characteristic of social class, education has its own distinctive impact on the formation of opinions. high levels of education generally provide people with a greater understanding of the political system. it also tends to produce people more likely to be attentive to issues and the extent to which the representative is in accordance with their views. in an early study, cain, ferejohn, and fiorina (1987, 42) found that 40% of college-educated individuals believed policy concerns were most important, as opposed to only 17% of those with less than a high school education. because of their greater exposure to politics, those with higher levels of education are also more likely to be attentive to the other components of responsiveness. finally, as a function of one’s political identity, ideology also plays a role in the formation of political opinions. conservatives typically prefer a smaller central government and lower government expenditures. yet, when using measures of partisanship rather than ideology, cain, ferejohn, and fiorina (1987) found that republicans (who may be more robin lauermann 73 or less conservative) supported greater levels of district spending but less individualized assistance. it is difficult to assess the past evidence for this component since party identification and ideology are not necessarily mutually reinforcing. indeed, recent work has distinguished between “symbolic conservatives” and those who profess such an ideological leaning yet in reality are often “operationally liberal” because they support more government action and emphasize diffuse support due to pragmatic outcomes rather than programmatic ideals (stimson 2004, 166–167). ideological identity thus may have a less focused impact on constituents’ perceptions of their representatives. despite the strong rationale for examining the impact of these and other factors on constituent evaluations, there has been minimal investigation. the relevance of identity on constituents’ evaluations of their representatives’ behavior (as distinct from their representatives’ votes) has not been sufficiently explored, nor has much effort been made to develop a more robust model of that behavior from the constituent perspective. such work is needed because evidence of the impact of social and political identity on constituents’ perceptions is important for understanding not only individual opinions but also the implications of constituency composition for member behavior. by incorporating the oftexcluded symbolic concerns, member behavior would likely be encouraged in certain methods, depending upon the portion of individuals in the district possessing a particular identity or combination of identities. method and design this article used the 2000 american national election studies (anes) data set to assess the impact of group identities on constituent perceptions (burns et al. 2002).4 the anes data includes 1,807 respondents selected through a stratified cluster sampling technique.5 in order to identify the importance of each facet of representation, this article uses an “identity model,” incorporating the group identities discussed above, to estimate the relevance to constituents of different components of responsiveness. dependent variables the dependent variables, representing each component of responsiveness, are derived from a similar measurement. because there 74 viewing representative behavior through the lens of social and political identity is no set of questions directly assessing the importance of the various components of representation, it was necessary to construct alternative measures to determine their relevance. in the survey, respondents were asked a series of open-ended questions about democratic and republican house candidates. specifically, they were asked what they liked or disliked about the candidates, in this case, their own representatives.6 the constituents had an opportunity to mention up to five positive and five negative aspects of the candidate as reported in variables 1,329–1,351. open-ended questions allow individuals to communicate their ideas freely without having to conform to pre-selected answers. they also provide an additional benefit in that respondents are able to discuss things important to them. the responses to the open-ended questions are coded with specificity in the anes code book appendix. these responses were sorted and collapsed into one of four categories based on the fit of the coded open-ended answer with the responsiveness concept. building on fenno’s (1978) idea of “presentation of self,” symbolic responsiveness includes those responses that indicate trustworthiness (e.g., honesty, integrity, independence from other political actors, and not acting in self-interest), qualification for the job (i.e., experience), identification, and empathy. district service responses include mentions of actions on behalf of the district as a whole (e.g., keeping constituents informed and doing things to help the district’s economy).7 service responses provided indications that the representative had helped individual constituents with problems. specific policy responses were coded as policy, as were all general ideological responses.8 a complete listing of the values coded for each category is provided in the appendix. an individual’s likelihood of mentioning a particular component of responsiveness provides an indicator of those facets of representation that are most important. while there are alternative ways of assessing the constituent perspective, the model used here is based on the subjective perceptions of the respondents. although objective actions of house members may contribute to individual constituents’ perceptions of their representative’s behavior, it is ultimately the subjective perceptions that are relevant to constituent evaluations. if the perceptions themselves are skewed by bias or lack of information, the final evaluation itself will be skewed because it will be based more on subjective perceptions of the representative and less on the representative’s objective actions. while these objective actions are relevant to the larger framework of the representational relationship (box-steffensmeier et al. tate 2003), this robin lauermann 75 article seeks only to determine what constituents value. it is not concerned with the accuracy of those perceptions. identity characteristics: hypotheses and measurement9 ethnicity. nonwhite individuals are more likely to prefer nonpolicy behavior, such as group or district benefits, because they have a greater need for tangible benefits. to understand how race affects the importance of each component, individuals were placed into one of two variable categories, white and nonwhite, based on the coding of responses to variable 1,006.10 age. individuals at different life stages may have different expectations from their representatives as a result of different needs. older individuals may be more concerned with policy factors because of their greater exposure to and understanding of the impact of government action on their lives. in accordance with variable 908, individuals were grouped into one of three categories corresponding to the three age ranges during which political interest and involvement vary: 18–29, 30– 54, and 55 and older. gender. women are more likely than men to prefer member behaviors that are targeted at district and constituent assistance. variable 1,029 was used to control for the gender of constituents. social class. as a matter of self-interest, individuals from lower social classes are more likely to mention particular and general benefits rather than policy, whereas upper-class individuals may prefer policy considerations. this variable was measured by the self-selected social class response ranging from lower working class to upper middle class as reported by variable 1,005. education. highly educated individuals are the most likely to mention policy concerns rather than other factors because they are best equipped to understand politics. a collapsed scale of education levels was created from variable 913: no high school degree (individuals with 11 years or less of schooling); high school (individuals who had completed high school or only a few years of college without earning a degree); and college education (individuals with an associate, bachelor, or advanced degree). ideology. past research has examined the impact of party identification on assessments of member behavior. ideology is a more 76 viewing representative behavior through the lens of social and political identity appropriate measure than is partisanship, however, because it is a more consistent indicator of political opinions. conservatives are more likely to prefer district benefits than casework. ideology is measured with variable 1,370, which provides a seven-point continuum from extremely liberal to extremely conservative. results and discussion before examining the results of the multivariate analysis, it is instructive to review the distribution of responses to the like versus dislike mentions. table 1 presents the distribution of responses according to the recoded categories. there is a significant disproportionality between the number of responses for likes and dislikes. positive responses outnumbered negative responses by more than three to one. this response pattern is consistent with the overwhelmingly positive approval that constituents tend to accord their representatives (parker and davidson 1979). across all respondents, individuals were most likely to mention a symbolic consideration as a reason for liking or disliking their representative. this behavior is consistent with past research finding symbolic responsiveness to be of primary importance to constituents (lauermann 2001), and it confirms the necessity of representatives having to explain convincingly their washington activity when they are home in their districts (fenno 1978; kingdon 1989). more interesting, however, is the relative level of mentions of issuerelated considerations. while individuals were more likely to mention policy responses as the next most significant basis of evaluation regardless of the nature of approval, the relative distribution varied. individuals were more likely to list policy as a consideration of disapproval (33%) than approval (25%). it thus appears that constituents are more likely to consider policy in their evaluation matrix when there is perceived dissonance between themselves and their members. similarly, they are more likely to punish representatives for perceived policy disagreement than they are to reward those holding similar issue positions. such behavior is consistent with past studies finding asymmetrical influence of blame relative to credit (kernell 1977). robin lauermann 77 table 1 percentage of like versus dislike mentions (frequencies in parentheses) likes dislikes symbolic responsiveness 52% (642) 50% (194) allocative responsiveness 12% (146) 3% (11) service responsiveness 4% (51) 1% (4) policy responsiveness 25% (315) 33% (130) other 7% (88) 12% (46) total 100% (1,242) 100% (385) as for tangible nonpartisan behaviors, district service is more relevant to constituents than is casework, perhaps because fewer individuals are likely to seek assistance, whereas pork-barrel benefits are extended to all people within a constituency regardless of their efforts. district service is more likely to be mentioned as a positive attribution than as a negative criticism. despite public outcries against the allegedly irresponsible budgetary politics of pork, individuals seem willing to make exceptions for their own members. likewise, few individuals mention service responsiveness as a drawback in evaluating their members. these actions are therefore overwhelmingly beneficial to members in building a relationship with constituents.11 how do social and political identities shape evaluations of members? to answer this question, a more complex analysis is required. given the dichotomous nature of the dependent variable, the model including the identity characteristics was estimated for each of the four types of responsive behavior mentions using probit estimation techniques. table 2 summarizes the model estimates.12 the coefficients provide mixed support for the hypotheses. with respect to ethnicity, african americans were less likely to mention policy concerns. they focused instead on constituency service and symbolic considerations. older americans were most likely to address the way in which members presented themselves to the constituency. they were also more likely than younger individuals 78 viewing representative behavior through the lens of social and political identity to mention both policy and service considerations. better-educated individuals were also more likely to mention symbolic considerations. this finding is especially interesting given that college graduates are better equipped to process policy concerns. women were much less likely than men to mention policy concerns, though given the magnitude of the coefficients, they were less likely to respond to all mentions. more conservative individuals were most likely to mention district service consideration yet less likely to cite issues of casework. finally, those from a higher social class were more likely to raise issue concerns and least concerned with casework, perhaps because such people are less likely to perceive benefits. still, class and ideology had only modest impact on the relevance of any of these considerations. indeed, only the influence of social class on policy mentions was statistically significant. table 2 influence of identity characteristics on responsiveness relevance (probit estimates; n=1069 for all models)13 symbolic allocative service policy african american .214* .007 .549* -.097 age .450*** .31*** .179 .199*** female -.139* -.174* -.048 -.275*** social class .035 .038 .005 .071** education .203*** .179* .194 .191*** ideology .007 .028 -.045 .005 lr chi2 76.92*** 25.14*** 11.05* 41.34*** ***p<.01, **p<.05, *p<.10 while the initial estimates provide a general assessment of the impact of group identities on constituent evaluations, a more specific estimate is needed since the relationships in the models are nonlinear. no two individuals are completely alike; each possesses a number of layers robin lauermann 79 of identities with potentially cross-cutting influences. to facilitate the interpretation of the probit coefficients, stata’s spost commands were used to estimate probabilities of identity impact providing a sample interaction among group identity characteristics. table 3 presents data showing the variation of two identities: ethnicity and gender. among college-educated, middle-class moderates who are middle-aged, african americans and white females are most likely to consider the symbolic way in which members relate to their constituents. white males, on the other hand, are more likely to weigh policy concerns as a portion of their evaluation. while district and casework considerations are much less likely to be noted, african americans are more likely than whites to mention casework, while men are slightly more likely than women to mention district considerations. given the similarity in rankings of probabilities across all categories, however, it is clear that both forms of constituency service are less important to all these individuals. table 3 probability of responsiveness mention among college-educated, middle-class, middle-aged individuals of moderate ideology symbolic allocative service policy black male .44 .13 .06 .33 black female .38 .10 .05 .22 white male .36 .13 .01 .38 white female .29 .09 .01 .25 since age and education produced some of the strongest coefficients of influence, predicted probabilities were also estimated to assess the relative impact of these reference groups on evaluations of member behavior. among moderate middle-class whites, young males and females—regardless of education—were actually most likely to mention policy concerns, though college-educated men were much more likely 80 viewing representative behavior through the lens of social and political identity (.31) to cite policy than were similarly educated women (.22). middleaged women at all levels of education were likely to address symbolic concerns and policy concerns equally, though middle-aged men were more likely to provide policy-related comments than symbolic ones. older citizens, on the other hand, were most likely to mention symbolic concerns. within this category, education provides only a greater likelihood of responding to representative behavior and not an influence on the relative importance of different responsive behaviors. while other layers of identity could be estimated, the purpose of this study is not to conduct an exhaustive generation of probabilities of potential interactions. rather, the results can help to direct future analysis and theoretical development. conclusions the findings of this study concerning the influences of identity on constituents’ perceptions of various member-responsive behaviors are consistent with past research. given the complexity of assessing the influence of the multiplicity of identities that each individual may possess, further research and analysis is needed. group identities surely affect individual political perceptions in the representational relationship. in particular, age, gender, education, and ethnicity exhibit significant yet varied effects on the relevance of member behavior for each constituent. these effects result from a combination of self-interest, political knowledge, concern for others, and life experiences. future research should focus on expanded analysis of the effects of group identities on perceptions of representative behavior with attention devoted to refinement of measurement. huddy (2001) asserts that while there may be value in viewing identity as a fluid factor determined by its contextual salience, there is also enduring evidence of larger-scale stability in the role that identity plays. further attempts to examine the relevance of contextual salience for this topic are certainly merited. most important, this study illustrates the need for research on the constituent perspective of representation to incorporate the nontangible component of symbolic responsiveness, as many individuals are likely to reference this type of activity, regardless of identity. this topic should also interest house members. much of the literature on congress focuses on member behavior with a presumption that it matters similarly to all constituents. this study reveals that robin lauermann 81 representatives of districts populated by differing social identities—e.g., urban areas with higher proportions of minorities, or districts with large numbers of older citizens—should take heed to know who comprises their districts so that they may best represent their constituents’ concerns. while the relative-ranked importance of each component, represented by the likelihood of mention, does not always vary across groups, these factors may make a difference in the outcome of close elections. understanding the impact of social identities may help members to recognize when policy and other concerns are most or least relevant to voters, thereby strengthening the relationship between representatives and their constituents. the impact of social and political identities also demonstrates the importance of continued attention to concerns of descriptive representation, for just as identities shape constituent preferences, so too will members’ identities drive their own behaviors. appendix coding for like versus dislike mentions symbolic mentions: 201, 203, 211–225, 297, 301–320, 334, 335, 397, 401–426 431, 432, 435–442, 447, 449–457, 459–462, 464, 502–505, 603, 604, 609, 610, 613–620, 622, 623, 625, 627, 701–711, 722, 732, 807, 808, 829–838, 841, 842, 845, 846, 1201–1206. policy mentions: 327, 328, 500, 501, 508–520, 531–536, 601, 602, 605– 608, 611, 612, 731, 801–828, 847–849, 897, 900–997, 1001–1047, 1101–1199. service mentions: 321, 322. allocative mentions: 323–326, 329–332. group mentions: 207–1236, 1297. other or not applicable: 427–430, 433, 434, 443–445, 446, 448, 495– 498, 506, 507, 543, 551–556, 597, 697, 718–730, 796, 797, 843. 82 viewing representative behavior through the lens of social and political identity table a1 pearson’s correlations: identity characteristics and responsiveness mentions age education female ideology ethnicity social class age 1.00 education -.125*** 1.00 female .038 -.042 1.00 ideology .096*** .011 -.064** 1.00 ethnicity .134*** .142*** -.034 .134*** 1.00 social class .089*** .314*** -.011 .099*** .158*** 1.00 symbolic mention .029 -.014 -.009 -.012 .029 -.026 allocative mention -.033 .062 -.040 -.009 -.018 .030 service mention -.009 .057 .029 -.087** .009 .009 policy mention -.077 .059 .072 .002 -.098** -.061 ***p<.01, **p<.05, *p<.10 notes 1while issue voting is problematic at best (see campbell, converse, miller, and stokes 1960; hurley and hill 1981; and abramson, aldrich, and rohde 2001), it must be remembered that evaluations are calculated on the basis of subjective perceptions, accurate or not. moreover, bishin (2002) finds that while constituents may not fulfill a sophisticated level of issue voting, there still are constraints on representative behavior. 2credit claiming is a principal electoral activity (mayhew 1974). it is defined as “acting so as to generate a belief in a relevant political actor (or actors) that one is personally responsible for causing the government, or some unit thereof, to do something that the actor (or actors) consider desirable” (mayhew 1974, 53). these actions may include particular benefits to the constituency or groups within the constituency or for the district as a whole. the idea is that if members robin lauermann 83 can convince their constituents that they were responsible for some positive government outputs, even in part, then that will work in their favor when they stand for reelection. compared with policy matters, casework and project assistance provide relatively non-controversial and nonpartisan means for getting constituency approval. furthermore, it is easier to take credit for smaller projects than for the passage of a bill (fiorina, 1989, 44). 3multivariate analysis is needed to assess the extent to which the policy differences are not confounded by educational characteristics. 4this is the most recent year for which all variables were available. 5only one national election study survey provides a measure in which respondents are able to rank various member activities in terms of importance. while the 1978 nes has a question that allows respondents to rank behaviors, it does not correspond exactly to concepts here. the concepts included: “helping people in the district who have personal problems with the government,” “making sure the district gets its fair share of government money and projects,” “keeping track of the way government agencies are carrying out laws passed by congress,” “keeping in touch with the people about what government is doing,” and “working in congress on bills concerning national policy.” 6the responses were not coded specifically with respect to the incumbent. those respondents who were coded in the race type variable as “republican incumbent running” were rated using the house republican candidate questions and those with a democratic incumbent running were rated using the house democratic candidate questions. while this method did not permit the inclusion of those individuals whose incumbent was retiring, there was no measure that would also allow for a similar evaluation. few cases lacked an incumbent race, so excluding them is not problematic. 7this category did not include the comments for whether the representative conveys the views of the district. these responses were considered to be more policy-oriented in nature and were coded accordingly. 8individuals also mentioned the importance of the representative acting on behalf of or against specific groups. while this categorization does not expressly fit within the framework established, the significant number of mentions suggests that it is a worthwhile consideration to measure. this distinction differs from that of identification, which suggests explicitly that a member is connected in some social grouping to the constituent. instead, it provides a measure of relevance of group connections irrespective of the characteristics of the constituent. only a handful of responses were included in this category, however, so a separate model of estimation was not included in this study. the remaining responses were placed in a residual category because they typically bore no relation to any consideration of responsiveness, such as campaignspecific comments indicating support of candidates because they were the underdog. 9in this study, identity serves as a factor influencing the constituent’s opinion, not as a measure of descriptive congruence, as used for example by box84 viewing representative behavior through the lens of social and political identity steffensmeier, kimball, meinke, and tate (2003). therefore, whether individuals who share important identity characteristics with their representatives have more favorable evaluations is an issue worth exploring, it is beyond the scope of this particular project. 10the decision to place both hispanic and asian american individuals in the non-white category was based not on the erroneous assumption that all minorities tend to respond with the same characteristics, but on the small pool of hispanic and asian americans (due to missing values). analyzing these two groups separately would not produce statistically meaningful results given the limited number of cases. 11while these results are instructive, it is important to place the actual responses within the larger potential framework. as the unit of analysis is the mention and not the respondent, the 1,600 cases are much fewer than if each respondent gave four mentions of like and dislike, which would result in 7,200 cases (based on the 1,807 person sample) for each set of evaluations. even if all people mentioned only one item of like and dislike, it would produce over 3,600 units for analysis. 12bivariate correlations presented in table a1 reveal no significant multicolinearity concerns. 13the limited number of statistically significant coefficients for the service model is likely due to a small number of responses for this category relative to the other models. references abramson, paul, john aldrich, and david rohde. 2001. change and continuity in the 2000 elections. washington, d.c.: cq press. bishin, benjamin. 2002. “what constituents don’t know won’t hurt them: representation and constituent ignorance.” presented at the annual meeting of the american political science association, boston. bianco, william. 1994. trust: representatives and constituents. ann arbor, mi: university of michigan press. box-steffensmeier, janet, david kimball, scott meinke, and katherine tate. 2003. “the effects of political representations on the electoral advantages of house incumbents.” political research quarterly 56(3): 259–270. burns, nancy, donald kinder, stephen rosenstone, virginia sapiro, and the national election studies. 2002. american national election study, 2000: preand post-election survey [computer file]. 2nd icpsr version. ann arbor, mi: university of michigan, center for political studies [producer], 2001. ann arbor, mi: inter-university consortium for political and social research [distributor]. cain, bruce, john ferejohn, and morris fiorina. 1987. the personal vote: constituency service and electoral independence. cambridge, ma: harvard university press. robin lauermann 85 campbell, angus, philip converse, warren miller, and donald stokes. 1960. the american voter. new york: john wiley and sons. conover, pamela johnston. 1988. “feminists and the gender gap.” journal of politics 50(1): 985–1,010. cover, albert. 1977. “one good term deserves another: the advantage of incumbency in congressional elections.” american journal of political science 21(3): 523–539. dolan, kathleen. 2001. “electoral context, issues, and voting for women in the 1990s.” women & politics 23(1): 21–36. erikson, robert, and kent tedin. 2005. american public opinion. 6th ed. boston: pearson longman. erikson, robert, and gerald wright. 1993. “voters, candidates, and issues in congressional elections.” in congress reconsidered, 5th ed., eds. lawrence dodd and bruce oppenheimer. washington, d.c.: cq press, 91–114. eulau, heinz, and philip karps. 1978. “the puzzle of representation: specifying components of responsiveness.” in the politics of representation, eds. heinz eulau and john wahlke. beverly hills, ca: sage, 55–69. fenno, richard jr. 1978. home style: house members in their districts. boston: little brown. fenno, richard jr. 1996. senators on the campaign trail: the politics of representation. norman, ok: university of oklahoma press. fiorina, morris. 1981. retrospective voting in american national elections. new haven, ct: yale university. press. fiorina, morris. 1982. “congressmen and their constituencies: 1958 and 1978.” in proceedings of the thomas p. o'neill. jr. symposium on the u.s. congress, ed. dennis hale. boston: eusey press, pp. 33–64. fiorina, morris. 1989. congress: keystone of the washington establishment. new haven, ct: yale university press. glynn, carroll, susan herbst, garrett o’keefe, robert shapiro, and mark lindeman. 1999. public opinion. boulder, co: westview press. griffin, jack, and patrick flavin. 2007. “racial differences in information, expectations, and accountability.” journal of politics 69(10): 220–236. hogg, michael, deborah terry, and katherine white. 1995. “a tale of two theories: a critical comparison of identity theory with social identity theory.” social psychology quarterly 58(4): 255–269. huddy, leonie. 2001. “from social to political identity: a critical examination of social identity theory.” political psychology 22(1): 127-156. huddy, leonie, and nayda terkildsen. 1993. “gender stereotypes and the perception of male and female candidates.” american journal of political science 37(1): 119– 147. hurley, patricia, and kim hill. 1980. “the prospects for issue voting in contemporary congressional elections: an assessment of citizen awareness and representation.” american politics quarterly 8(4): 425–458. 86 viewing representative behavior through the lens of social and political identity jacobson, gary. 1981. “incumbents’ advantages in the 1978 congressional elections.” legislative studies quarterly 6: 183–200. jacobson, gary. 2001. the politics of congressional elections. 5th ed. boston: longman. johannes, john, and john macadams. 1981. “the congressional incumbency effect: is it casework, policy compatibility, or something else? an examination of the 1978 election.” american journal of political science 25(3): 512–541. key, v.o. 1966. the responsible electorate: rationality in presidential voting, 1936– 1960. cambridge, ma: belknap press of harvard university press. kaufmann, karen, and john petrocik. 1999. “the changing politics of american men: understanding the sources of the gender gap.” american journal of political science 43(3): 864–887. kinder, donald r., and david o. sears. 1985. “public opinion and political action.” in the handbook of social psychology, vol. 2, 3rd ed., eds. garner lindzey, and elliot aronson. new york: random house, 659–714. kingdon, john. 1989. congressmen’s voting decisions. ann arbor, mi: university of michigan press. lane, robert e. 1974. “patterns of political belief.” in the handbook of political psychology, ed. jeanne knutson. san francisco, ca: jossey-bass, 83–116. lauermann, robin. 2001. evaluations of responsiveness: the constituent perspective of representation. ph.d. diss. state university of new york at buffalo. mayhew, david. 1974. congress: the electoral connection. new haven, ct: yale university press. miller, warren, and donald stokes. 1963. “constituency influence in congress,” the american political science review 57(1): 45-56 parker, glenn. 1989. “the role of constituent trust in congressional elections.” public opinion quarterly 53(2): 175–196. parker, glenn, and roger davidson. 1979. “why do americans love their congressmen so much more than their congress?” legislative studies quarterly 4(1): 53–61. rivers, david, and morris fiorina. 1989. “constituency service, reputation, and the incumbency advantage.” in home style and washington work: studies of congressional politics, eds. morris fiorina and david rohde. ann arbor, mi: university of michigan press, 17–45. serra, george. 1991. “what’s in it for me? the impact of congressional casework on incumbent evaluations.” american politics quarterly 22(4): 403–420. serra, george, and albert cover. (1992). “the electoral consequences of perquisite use: the casework case.” legislative studies quarterly 27: 233–246. serra, george, and david moon. 1994. “casework, issue positions, and voting in congressional elections.” journal of politics 56(1): 200–213. sigelman, lee, carol sigelman, and barbara walkosz. 1992. “the public and the paradox of leadership: an experimental analysis.” american political science review 36(2): 366–385. robin lauermann 87 stein, robert, and kenneth bickers. 1994. “congressional elections and the pork barrel.” journal of politics 56(2): 377–399. stets, jan, and peter burke. 2000. “identity theory and social identity theory.” social psychology quarterly 63(3): 224–237. tate, katherine. 2003. black faces in the mirror: african americans and their representatives in the u.s. congress. princeton, n.j.: princeton university press. turner, john. 1987. rediscovering the social group: a self-categorization theory. oxford: blackwell. wahlke, john. 1978. “policy demands and system support: the role of the represented.” in the politics of representation, eds. heinz eulau and john wahlke. beverly hills, ca: sage, 73–90. yiannakis, diana. 1981. “the grateful electorate: casework and congressional elections.” american journal of political science 25(3): 568–580. ó guidelines for submission to commonwealth: a journal of political science commonwealth is a journal that annually publishes original re­ search from among all the subfields in the discipline of political science as well as articles of an interdisciplinary nature. it is open to a variety of approaches and methodologies, for it seeks manuscripts that are based on theoretical perspectives (empirical or normative) as well as those that duvdih..:e knuwleube employing an historical approach. scholars study­ ing pennsylvania politics and government are especially encouraged to submit manuscripts for consideration. manuscripts should be produced in microsoft word format. the pre­ ferred length 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zip_______________________________________________ check enclosed in the sum of $ ____________. published jointly by the pennsylvania political science association and the legislative office for research liaison pennsylvania house of representatives commonwealth of political science m a r c h 2007 • c o m m o n w ea lt h : a jo u r n a l o f po lit ic a l sc ien c e • ppsa /lo r l march 2007 • volume 13 the pennsylvania political science association (ppsa) was founded in 1939 to further scholarship within the discipline. the legislative office for research liaison (lorl) was founded in 1976 by the pennsylvania house of representatives to provide research linkage to the academic community. a journal commonwealth: a journal of political science  volume 15, number 1  may 2009 policy issue on emergency management  2009 ppsa/lorl, pa house of reps. issn 0890-2410 managing risk in real time: integrating information technology into disaster risk reduction and response louise k. comfort, phd, professor of public and urban affairs daniel mosse, phd, professor of computer science taieb znati, phd, professor of computer science university of pittsburgh introduction emergency managers in pennsylvania face an extraordinarily complex set of tasks in reducing risk to communities that vary widely in size from the metropolitan regions of philadelphia and pittsburgh to the small towns of rural pennsylvania. these communities, with different degrees of density in population and interdependence of infrastructure, are exposed to a wide range of weather conditions, transportation accidents, hazardous materials spills, technical failures, and potential security threats. emergency managers are responsible for identifying potential threats to the commonwealth, alerting multiple agencies that are responsible for different functions to reduce such threats, and mobilizing an effective inter-organizational system to respond to rapidly evolving emergency events. recent events, such as the severe ice storm of february 14, 2007, illustrate the risks, costs, and losses that occur in such emergencies on a region-wide basis. increasingly, emergency managers are turning to decision support systems to provide real-time information for the complex tasks of anticipating, communicating, and responding to emergencies. while various software programs such as eis, e-team, and webeoc have been designed, developed, and adopted by emergency response agencies, none has been particularly successful in providing the type of dynamic, yet focused information that emergency managers need to mobilize coordinated action on a regional scale. emergency managers, operating at different locations and carrying out different functions simultaneously, require timely, valid information that can be updated quickly as conditions change. the challenge is to create a “common operating 28 managing risk in real time: integrating information technology into disaster risk reduction and response picture” for the set of emergency managers working at different levels of responsibility and exposed to different degrees of risk to enable them to take more informed, effective action in a coordinated response for the region. creating this “common operating picture” is complicated by the heterogeneity of disciplines, organizations, and jurisdictions that are involved in the mobilization of an effective response system to an extreme event. for example, the response system that evolved following hurricane katrina included 535 organizations from city, parish, subregion, state, federal, and international jurisdictions, identified in news reports from the times picayune published in new orleans, louisiana (comfort and haase 2006). the distribution of organizations crossed jurisdictional lines, as 76, or 23.9%, were from the municipal level of operations, while 93, or 29.2%, were federal organizations. in hindsight, it is clear that few personnel from these two levels of operations had worked together previously, or had developed a common understanding of what actions needed to be taken by which agencies at what time to reduce the threat to the region. the initial step in disaster reduction lies in recognizing risk, and in developing a common definition of risk that is shared among the participating actors. under these conditions, risk is the probability of danger, not the hazard itself. it can be defined as the dynamic interaction of the exposure to hazard, less the capacity of the community to act to reduce that hazard (johnson 2005). many theorists have sought to define risk, but it is difficult to capture the dynamic characteristics of risk as it changes both over time and in reference to specific geographic, technical, organizational, social, economic, and political conditions. omar cardona (2003), an international engineer who has examined risk from multiple perspectives, refers to risk as the potential loss to the exposed subject or system, resulting from the convolution of hazard and vulnerability. cardona recognizes, importantly, that the degree of risk to which a community is exposed may be modified by actions taken to reduce vulnerability to hazards in the community. further, he specifies that vulnerability is increased or decreased by the interaction among technical, organizational, social, economic, political, and cultural conditions as the community acts in reference to the hazards to which it is exposed. that is, if a community acknowledges its exposure to hurricanes and allocates resources and training to emergency response louise k. comfort, daniel mosse, and taieb znati 29 agencies to prepare for such extreme events, its vulnerability to hurricanes will decrease. for example, the state of florida, based on its significant experience, has increased its capacity to reduce the likely consequences of hurricanes for its communities, and has notably decreased its vulnerability to this hazard, although hurricanes will surely recur in florida. conversely, if a community acknowledges the threat of severe weather, but takes no action to mitigate the likely consequences for its population and infrastructure, its vulnerability to severe weather will increase. risk is the status of the community at a particular time, given its exposure to a specific hazard and the actions that it has taken to reduce that hazard. cardona (2003) proposes that the degree of risk for any community may be expressed in mathematical terms as “the probability of surpassing a determined level of economic, social, or environmental consequence at a certain site and during a certain period of time.” this proposition suggests a practical means of assessing risk from known hazards for specific communities, and using this information as a basis for informed decision making to reduce risk from hazards. determining the degree of risk for a given community requires the design and development of a knowledge base and decision support system for the region that characterizes the economic, social, technical, organizational, and geophysical characteristics of the region in order to identify accurately the thresholds of performance that enable a community to manage the consequences of the hazard and still continue its basic operations. current information technologies provide the potential for addressing the assessment of risk in real time, and providing timely, accurate decision support to practicing emergency managers in the dynamic environment of disaster risk reduction and response. risk assessment and response at a regional level managing risk for a given region involves measuring the rate of change between two interacting components in real time: 1) the degree of exposure to a specific hazard for the region, and conversely, 2) the capacity of the region to act to reduce the likely consequences of that hazard when it occurs. the dynamic is reciprocal. as the degree of exposure to a given hazard increases and the region deploys its existing capacity to reduce the likely consequences of that hazard, the vulnerability of the community to danger will increase, unless capacity is 30 managing risk in real time: integrating information technology into disaster risk reduction and response augmented. the ratio of the probability of occurrence of the hazard to the capacity of the region to mitigate that hazard will vary over time. achieving the appropriate balance between timely, accurate assessment of the probability of hazards and allocation of resources and effort to minimize the potential consequences can be enhanced with the use of innovative information technologies.1 designing decision support systems to enable emergency managers to make more informed, timely decisions in managing risk represents an innovative approach to the reduction of recurring risk in metropolitan regions. a community’s capacity for response to hazards can be considered as a dynamic, inter-organizational system that is characterized by four primary decision points: 1) detection of risk; 2) recognition and interpretation of risk for the immediate context; 3) communication of risk to multiple organizations in a wider region; and 4) self organization and mobilization of a collective, community response system to reduce risk and respond to danger. the decision points move from individual to organizational to system levels of aggregation and communication of information that are used as a basis for creating a “common knowledge base” to support collective action to reduce risk. it is at these four transition points of escalating requirements for action that human cognitive, communicative, and coordinating skills frequently fail. five propositions present a conceptual framework for building resilience in communities exposed to recurring risk. detection of risk in detection of risk, measurement of hazards is conducted by a network of scientists that review and validate the current status of the hazard and then forward this information to decision makers in public, private, and nonprofit organizations. for example, on august 23, 2005, the meteorologists at the national hurricane center (nhc) in florida identified a tropical depression forming over the bahamas. on august 24, they upgraded it to tropical storm katrina. on august 25, the staff at the nhc tracked the storm as it made landfall in south florida as a category 1 hurricane. on august 26, the storm moved into the gulf of mexico and intensified to become a category 2 hurricane and the nhc 1the interactive, intelligent, spatial information system (iisis) laboratory at the university of pittsburgh has focused on the degree to which the capacity of a region to respond to shared risk can be enhanced by the appropriate use of innovative information technologies. for more information, please see http://www.iisis.pitt.edu. louise k. comfort, daniel mosse, and taieb znati 31 projected landfall in louisiana and mississippi. at each step of the evolving state of the storm, scientists at the nhc notified the public officials and news media regarding its changing strength and direction. on august 27, as the storm strengthened over the gulf of mexico, the nhc upgraded it to a category 3 hurricane; the next day, august 28, the storm intensified to a category 4, and then category 5 storm, with winds over 175 miles per hour. on monday morning, august 29, hurricane katrina made landfall just east of new orleans as a category 4 storm. the scientists monitoring the hazard b the evolving hurricane b provided timely, accurate information to both decision makers and the public. ironically, this scientific information did not lead to sufficiently informed action by the policymakers and emergency managers. while the validation of weather data is an important stage in this process, monitoring performance across a wider range of critical conditions for the community would provide more accurate and timely detection of emerging danger than separate assessments for particular conditions. the process of risk detection is vulnerable to the fragilities of human organization and performance. responsible decision makers may be watching separate conditions for indications of vulnerability, but miss the interaction among these conditions that may intensify the potentially destructive impact of the hazard on the whole community. the design of appropriate means to assess the status of a core set of interacting conditions and operational systems critical to the community would augment the early detection and validation of risk. these assessments, reported as thresholds of risk across a set of critical conditions and functions for the community, would provide a more integrated and timely assessment of risk to human decision makers responsible for risk reduction. in order to achieve such a distributed system of data detection and analysis, an effective decision support system would require a number of monitoring systems that would measure change in critical conditions for maintaining continuity of operations. for example, measuring the capacity of the levee system to withstand the added pressure of a storm surge from the gulf of mexico moving into the city of new orleans through the mississippi river gulf outlet would be a key factor in determining the vulnerability of the city’s population to the storm. other factors, such as monitoring the state of readiness to implement the evacuation plan for all sectors of the city’s population, or the current status of alternate communications facilities, are essential measures to 32 managing risk in real time: integrating information technology into disaster risk reduction and response calculate the degree of risk for the entire metropolitan region. these monitoring systems would not only provide redundancy in incident detection, but also allow measurement of the rate of change in key factors over time, which is critical to understanding the probable impact of the hurricane on the community under study. when more details are needed on a particular event, the set of monitors should be able to deliver this information in as much detail as the emergency managers require. only the needed information should be shown to the emergency managers during the daily operation of the system. proposition 1: human capacity to perceive risk increases with the timeliness, accuracy, and validity of information transmitted in reference to a core set of thresholds of risk to conditions critical for community resilience. recognition and interpretation of risk prior research has found that an individual’s capacity for problem solving drops under stress (laporte 1975, miller 1967, simon 1981). this drop in capacity is the result of the increased number of risk factors, the degree of unfamiliarity with new information, and the degree of uncertainty that characterizes extreme events. in these contexts, appropriate uses of information technology offer a means of extending human problem solving capacity in uncertain conditions. a key question for investigation is the extent to which a socio-technical information infrastructure, designed to detect and transmit risk information quickly and accurately, can facilitate the rapid recognition of risk within a community and lead to more informed, timely action. with a well-designed socio-technical system, the emergency managers will receive only the information they select to view. the usual way of doing this is to centralize all information into a single server, use database technology to extract relevant views from the database, and transmit it to the consoles of the emergency managers. this approach often creates a bottleneck, since data must be collected into a single server and extracted from the single server under tight timing constraints (in real-time) to be useful. most systems that use this method slow down the information distribution among emergency managers who operate at different jurisdictional levels of responsibility. proposition 2: human capacity to recognize risk conditions can be increased by focusing risk data through “views” that are louise k. comfort, daniel mosse, and taieb znati 33 directly relevant to the responsibilities of each major decision maker in the system, thus reducing the overload of less relevant information and time required for information processing and facilitating rapid absorption of threatening information by individual decision makers. communication of risk to wider arenas of response organizations and resources the prevailing method of communicating risk relies largely on command and control processes through a carefully defined hierarchical order. for example, during hurricane katrina, the official policies included the national response plan (fema 2004) and the national incident management system (fema 2005) that were adopted by the federal emergency management agency and the department of homeland security. these policies follow a serial format for communication of risk and requests for assistance from lower to upper jurisdictional levels. these plans have recently been replaced by the national response framework (january 2008), which includes minor adjustments, but still follows the prevailing pattern of established hierarchical control. a sobering analysis of communication patterns among emergency response agencies in the hours and days leading up to and following hurricane katrina illustrates vividly the breakdown of this formal design in practice (comfort 2005, 2006). building the awareness of risk to support collective action is a cumulative process. if the first two steps of risk detection and communication have not been carried out successfully, the effort to engage organizations from a wider arena into the emergency response system is likely to flounder or fail. our model for achieving this task of communicating critical information to focused audiences is the “bowtie” architecture for decision support (csete and doyle 2004, comfort 2005). this architecture offers a method of presenting relevant views to different emergency managers, while preserving not only the meaning of the incoming data, but also preserving the integrity of the collected data. as shown in figure 1 on the following page, a “bowtie” design identifies key sources of data that “fan in” simultaneously to a central processing unit (or “knot”) where the data are integrated, analyzed and interpreted from the perspective and performance of the entire system. new information is then “fanned out” to relevant actors or operating units that 34 managing risk in real time: integrating information technology into disaster risk reduction and response use the information to make adjustments in their specific operations informed by the global perspective. figure 1 this design fits well with an emergency operations center (eoc). in an eoc, status reports from multiple agencies are transmitted to the service chiefs who collectively integrate, analyze and interpret the data in reference to the performance of the whole response system. they then transmit the relevant information to the respective agency personnel, who adjust the performance of their units informed by the operations perspective for the entire system. the capacity for reciprocal adjustment of performance among multiple organizations based on timely, valid information represents self organization in emergency response, guided by the shared goal of protecting lives, property and maintaining continuity of operations for the whole community (comfort 1994, axelrod and cohen 1999). state level integration aggregation visualization interpretation redirection data collection data analysis organizational action fire, police medical facilities public works search & rescue utilities technical environmental resources organizational social bowtie architecture for the iterative flow of information within a disaster management system (2) (3) (4) (5)(6) (9)(8)(12) (7)(12) (11)(10) initial conditions http://ww (1) engineering district level county level municipal level louise k. comfort, daniel mosse, and taieb znati 35 this theoretical framework acknowledges the importance of both design and self organizing action in guiding coordinated action in a complex, dynamic environment. it can be modeled as a set of networks that facilitate the exchange of incoming and outgoing information through a series of analytical activities that support systemic decision making. the information flow is multi-way, but gains efficiency through integrated analysis and coordinated action toward a clearly articulated goal for the whole system. it operates by identifying the key sources of information, the key processes of analysis and interpretation for the whole system, and the key routes of transmission. it maintains self organizing functions in that personnel, with informed knowledge, adjust their own performance to achieve the best performance for the whole system. design, self organization, and feedback are central to effective performance of distinct organizational units within the global system. the system will use multicasting networks to support the simultaneous transmission of information to multiple actors under conditions of escalating risk. because such conditions require the aggregation of information at successive levels of responsibility, the proposed network will provide such aggregation functions within the network itself, guided by the views that emergency managers specify. further, the presentation of fused and selected information (readily understandable to personnel with different levels of training and experience) will be done to avoid information overload. lastly, the views requested by emergency managers may (and will) change based on temporal conditions and event information. for example, in the early stages, vague, scattered, incoherent indicators of risk will necessitate little information and aggregation, allowing the network to self-organize. then, during emerging risk, clear indicators trending toward significant danger will require more information to be provided, while still avoiding information overload. during rescue and recovery, data will be distributed in the reverse direction and transformed into action to protect lives and property. proposition 3: the capacity of a set of organizational managers, each with specific responsibilities and operating at different locations, to coordinate their actions can be increased by the simultaneous transmission of relevant risk information to each manager, creating a “common operating picture” of risk to the region for all managers. 36 managing risk in real time: integrating information technology into disaster risk reduction and response self organization and mobilization of collective action to reduce risk the collective capacity of a community to take informed, coherent action in the face of danger is a measure of that community’s resilience. this capacity depends upon the cumulative set of cognitive, communicative, and adaptive processes outlined above. if any one of the preceding steps fails, the capacity of the community for collective action is weakened. if all of the preceding steps are performed effectively, the capacity for collective action is strengthened. further, instances of negative feedback can have the reverse effect of weakening the whole system’s performance in response to danger. disaster management involves multiple governmental, nonprofit, and private entities with different structures and organizational models. the interest of each organization in gathering information and data regarding exposure to hazards derives directly from its own mission. in current disaster management systems, these organizations are much more vulnerable to information overload caused by the transmission of a large amount of irrelevant information. as the number and variety of sources of information and sensors continue to grow, so does the volume of data generated by these socio-technical sources of information. one method of facilitating the timely exchange of valid information to multiple managers simultaneously is the design of an “executive dashboard,” in which data from different sources are represented visually to provide a “common operating picture” of the status of the region at risk. this design translates the concept of the “bowtie” architecture for information processes into a working decision support system for emergency managers operating at graduated levels of responsibility and authority. the capacity for multiple managers at different levels of responsibility to view the relevant information for their specific arenas of action simultaneously enhances their ability to adapt and adjust their performance to the emerging threat more quickly, efficiently, and effectively. setting the thresholds of risk for participating agencies that have different levels of resources but are exposed to threats of different degrees of severity requires the judgment of experienced emergency managers as well as timely, valid information. in planning sessions for simulated operations exercises, selected practicing emergency managers would be invited to participate in the definition of thresholds that are relevant to their specific responsibilities. the model of an executive louise k. comfort, daniel mosse, and taieb znati 37 dashboard offers a mechanism for building a “common operating picture” among responsible actors in a complex disaster management system for a community at risk. proposition 4. the collective capacity of a community to act in coherent ways to reduce risk can be increased through information search, exchange, focused views, and feedback processes to create an inter-organizational learning system that adapts its behavior to fit available resources to changing conditions of risk more appropriately. vulnerability to systemic failure in communities exposed to risk at each of the four decision points identified above, human capacity for informed action is enhanced by access to appropriately designed and functioning information technology. the interaction between organizational performance in coordinating action and the availability and access to a functioning information infrastructure has a fundamental effect upon a community’s capacity to manage the risk to which it is exposed. without access to such a technical information infrastructure, the organizational capacity to mobilize collective action in a region will likely fail. the collapse of the emergency response system in new orleans after the city lost its communications illustrates this argument vividly. proposition 5: without a well-defined, functioning information infrastructure supported by appropriate technology, the collective response of a community exposed to serious threat will fail. the five propositions, taken together, constitute a conceptual framework regarding the evolution of capacity for collective action in communities exposed to recurring risk. the basic argument is that human capacity to act collectively and constructively in risky, uncertain environments can be significantly enhanced through appropriate uses of information technology. the mon valley project in order to test the conceptual framework of the “bowtie” architecture for decision support, the iisis laboratory research team engaged in a trial demonstration project that involved 27 pennsylvania 38 managing risk in real time: integrating information technology into disaster risk reduction and response municipalities2 that border the monongahela river. pittsburgh=s signature three rivers create a recurring risk of flooding for the metropolitan region. within the last 23 years, seven damaging floods have ravaged riverfront communities, each causing substantial loss of property, disruption of community economic activity, and significant hardship for families, businesses, and communities. these floods include the following events: 1985: monongahela flood, pittsburgh, november 14. 1986: north hills flash flood, may 31. eight dead. 1996: river floods, january, pittsburgh area. 2001: southern west virginia floods, june-july. 2004: tropical storm ivan, september 17. 2005: january floods, allegheny river. 2007: july floods, allegheny river. given past experience, exposure to flooding is a known hazard for the pittsburgh metropolitan region which compels the communities to seek more effective means of managing this risk. the reconstruction of the storm water drainage systems is, of course, an overriding need, but as shown by recent studies sponsored by the allegheny conference, the price tag for these infrastructural improvements runs well into the billions of dollars. new methods for analyzing risk to human life and property from natural disasters can help public managers, businesses, and households take preventive action in a timely fashion and at manageable cost. several of these methods have been incorporated into an innovative decision support system under development at the university of pittsburgh. the interactive, intelligent, spatial information system (iisis) laboratory of the university of pittsburgh has developed a prototype decision support system (dss) to enable communities to make decisions regarding the vulnerability of existing infrastructure, the threat to local 2braddock, braddock hills, chalfont, churchill, dravosburg, duquesne, east mckeesport, east pittsburgh, edgewood, forest hills, homestead, mckeesport, munhall, north braddock, north versailles, rankin, south versailles, swissvale, turtle creek, versailles, wall, west mifflin, whitaker, white oak, wilkins, wilkinsburg, and wilmerding. louise k. comfort, daniel mosse, and taieb znati 39 populations, and the capacity of local resources to respond effectively to flooding in the pittsburgh metro region. this prototype is currently being tested in a real world setting. the allegheny county emergency management agency and 27 municipalities along the monongahela river are collaborating with the iisis laboratory to test the model. the primary objectives of this project are: 1. to implement an innovative decision support system (jiisis)3 for assessing the vulnerability to flooding in 27 municipalities exposed to risk in the monongahela valley. 2. to collect and validate the data needed to establish a regional knowledge base for the 27 participating communities. 3. to evaluate the performance of the jiisis prototype in a demonstration exercise with practicing emergency managers. 4. to communicate the results of the exercise to the partner agencies that supported the project: allegheny county emergency management agency, southwestern pennsylvania chapter of the american red cross, the 27 municipalities, the pittsburgh foundation, the buhl foundation, and an anonymous local foundation. interactive, intelligent, spatial information system (iisis) the jiisis is a computational decision support system that integrates data from key sources into a visual framework to assist managers in making an effective assessment of risk to their communities. it helps managers to interpret this information through color-coded graphics that indicate varying levels of risk as the conditions change. while initially developed for flooding incidents, the basic techniques are applicable to any type of hazard. the jiisis includes three principal components, all of which are integrated into a dynamic information processing system that provides updates on the status of key functions in real time. the components include four types of components: 1) a dynamic bridge to the local 911 system in which incidents are reported in real time, along with the current availability of emergency response units and personnel; 3the prototype interactive, intelligent, spatial information system (iisis) has now been converted into java, hence the acronym, jiisis. 40 managing risk in real time: integrating information technology into disaster risk reduction and response 2) a gis system with data stored on physical characteristics, engineered infrastructure, and social and economic characteristics of the region; 3) a documents library that stores current policies, procedures, emergency plans for participating jurisdictions in a regional response system, and professional assessments of risk; and 4) a series of computational modules that estimate the vulnerability/capacity of communities to manage their own risk. 911 bridge a major challenge for emergency managers is to keep abreast of the status of a dynamically evolving emergency situation. the jiisis prototype has developed a bridge that transmits data directly from the local 911 system to the central iisis processing server in real time to provide a continually updated profile of incidents as they occur. this feature includes dynamically tracked data on resources so that emergency managers know what resources are available at any given time and which have already been committed to action. incident action plans as required to be compliant with the national incident response system, emergency managers now must file a series of incident action plans. the forms for these plans have been replicated in electronic format, with the identifying information for each form carrying over to subsequent forms. this format facilitates the required recordkeeping tasks for emergency managers, saving time and focusing their attention on the critical information required for coordinated action. active geographic information system a key feature of the jiisis is its capacity to generate gis thumbnail maps as part of the information that is registered for a particular incident. that is, as an incident is reported, with location, type of hazard, and severity, this information generates a small gis map that locates the incident in the region. this function has the advantage of building a geographic profile of incidents in the region, and emergency managers can refer to this larger pattern of incidents in making decisions regarding the routing of emergency units and allocation of resources. louise k. comfort, daniel mosse, and taieb znati 41 documents library the documents library stores policies, procedures, plans, and other relevant information for easy reference by emergency managers as complex incidents unfold. these documents are especially useful in inter-jurisdictional events with multiple agencies from many jurisdictions involved in response operations. dynamic assessment module (dam) this module represents a decision-support tool that measures change in a set of significant parameters in infrastructure, threat level, changing environmental conditions, and availability of the emergency response units and personnel. it indicates the vulnerability, or its inverse b capacity – of a particular community or region to respond to disaster. as incidents occur and response assets are assigned, their availability for subsequent incidents lowers the resiliency of the community, and other communities to whom they provide mutual aid. the inverse of the response organization capability is the changing vulnerability of the community based on varying states of infrastructure, environment, and weather conditions. the equations upon which the model is built include 36 different variables to determine initial vulnerability. these variables are combined into three components of vulnerability: geophysical attributes, engineered structures, and social environments. a total of 10 variables are used to determine the response capacity of public safety and emergency management officials. one variable is used to measure the resiliency of public safety response organizations. the capability of the public safety response organizations is subtracted from the initial vulnerability of the region to show the change in risk conditions as local resources are deployed to bring the threat under control. this adjusted vulnerability varies as response assets fluctuate between available and assigned. the results have been translated into color-coded graphics that allow the emergency managers to gauge the community=s present status at a glance. in practice, a connection to a live 911 data stream would allow managers to assess real-time information on the status of their community and provide additional warning time to minimize the hazard to a community. this unique decision support tool gives emergency managers the technological edge necessary to gain insight into how disasters evolve 42 managing risk in real time: integrating information technology into disaster risk reduction and response and to alert them to potential problems in time to intervene and minimize the damaging impact to their communities. risk assessment analytical tools several tools for identifying hazardous materials or locating existing quantities in storage are also available, as well as a module for patient tracking. other modules for traffic monitoring and routing are in the early planning stages. these modules represent continuing development by the iisis lab research team, with informed guidance and review by practicing managers and interdisciplinary experts. risks and risk management strategies introducing new concepts and strategies for action into any set of communities poses the risk of rejection by existing managers in favor of maintaining a more familiar status quo. in the case of flooding risk, recent events have increased the awareness of these riverfront communities to the dangers they face and the economic and physical losses they are likely to sustain. introducing a new approach to managing well-known flooding risk is likely to be clearly understood and wellreceived by the communities that have recently experienced losses from hurricane ivan and watched the devastation created by the flooding of new orleans in hurricane katrina. the timing for introducing a method of computational modeling of flooding risk is appropriate, given the heightened level of public awareness of risk. the trial demonstration project for communities in the mon valley included meetings with local communities to explain the need for data collection, the methods, and benefits of the project=s operation. project staff worked directly with emergency service personnel in each community to ensure that they understand the workings of the prototype and would be able to implement it in their respective communities. current status the one-year pilot project to implement the jiisis decision support tool with the collaboration of 27 riverfront communities that are most atrisk from flooding was the first demonstration project designed primarily for a study region of municipalities in allegheny county. these communities also participated in a companion project, the monongahela river community shelter project that is being conducted by the southwestern pennsylvania chapter of the american red cross. the community shelter project, supported by a grant from the u.s. steel louise k. comfort, daniel mosse, and taieb znati 43 foundation, is both strengthened by, and complementary to, the university of pittsburgh project to assess vulnerability to flooding in the mon valley. these two related projects integrated existing databases as well as added new data to create a regional model for managing risk in the mon valley. iisis staff members are working to develop the partnerships essential for continuing this project on a regular basis. organizations central to the coalition include allegheny county emergency management agency, southwestern pennsylvania chapter of the american red cross, and the 27 municipalities participating in the community shelter project. additional organizations may be included as the effort builds a region-wide coalition of informed organizations committed to reduce the risk and losses from flooding. the mon valley project began on october 1, 2006, and formally concluded on october 8, 2007, with a demonstration of the working design for the selected communities in allegheny county that are exposed to flooding risk. the prototype is currently being checked and validated for use by the municipalities, and a trial version was released to the participant communities in fall 2008 for continued testing and feedback. this demonstration served as the major method of evaluating the performance of the project and the efficacy of using information technologies to support decision processes in managing recurring risk. practicing emergency managers from the 27 municipalities were invited to assess the performance of the prototype and its contribution to increasing the regional capacity to reduce damage and losses from flooding. conclusions the mon valley trial demonstration project offered a means of testing a decision support system based on the “bowtie” architecture prior to making a major investment in hardware and software in the pittsburgh metropolitan region. experience to date demonstrates that information technology facilitates information search and exchange processes among organizations participating in disaster risk reduction and response, but that demonstration and training are essential to encourage adoption and use. unless such processes are recognized and accepted as part of continuing operations in communities, they are not 44 managing risk in real time: integrating information technology into disaster risk reduction and response likely to produce the desired results. if information technologies are introduced as part of a sociotechnical system that enables human managers to make more accurate, timely decisions under stress, they are more likely to be incorporated quickly into daily operations as a means to improve performance within and among organizations. acknowledgments we acknowledge, with thanks and appreciation, the members of the iisis staff who have participated in the design and implementation of the jiisis model: mark dunn, adam zagorecki, david johnson, robert skertich, leonard huggins, clayton wukich, david evans, and elliott levenson. we also acknowledge thomas w. haase for his formatting of the “bowtie” model in figure 1. this research was supported in part by national science foundation grant, itr #0325353, and grants from local pittsburgh foundations, including the buhl foundation and the pittsburgh foundation. references axelrod, robert and michael d. cohen. 1999. harnessing complexity: organizational implications of a scientific frontier. new york: the free press. cardona, omar d. 2003. “the need for rethinking the concepts of vulnerability and risk from a holistic perspective: a necessary review and criticism for effective risk management.” in g. bankoff, g. frerks, d. hilhorst (eds.). 2003. mapping vulnerability: disasters, development, and people. london: earthscan publishers comfort, louise k. 1994. “risk and resilience: inter-organizational learning following the northridge earthquake of january 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to politics and policy. princeton, new jersey: princeton university press. miller, george a. 1967. “the magical number seven, plus or minus two: some limits on our capacity for processing information.” in psychology of communication. new york, ny: basic books, pp. 14-44. simon, h.a. 1981. the sciences of the artificial. (2nd edition) cambridge, ma: the mit press. commonwealth a journal of political science published by the pennsylvania political science association vol. 16, no. 1, september 2013 © copyright 2013 by the pennsylvania political science association issn 0890-2410. copyright on volumes published prior to 2007 are held by the pennsylvania political science association. i commonwealth a journal of political science editor in chief gerard j. fitzpatrick, ursinus college associate editors thomas j. baldino, wilkes university donald g. tannenbaum, gettysburg college michael r. king, temple university book review editor thomas j. baldino, wilkes university managing editor michael e. cassidy, temple university editorial review board aryeh botwinick temple university m. margaret conway university of florida roger h. davidson university of maryland richard f. fenno university of rochester marianne githens goucher college susan w. hammond american university samuel krislov university of minnesota g. calvin mackenzie colby college michael j. malbin state university of ny, albany harvey c. mansfield jr. harvard university kenneth f. mott gettysburg college craig n. murphy wellesley college mark p. petracca university of california, irvine bruce m. russett yale university ii pennsylvania political science association officers and executive council 2013–14 president brooke harlowe lock haven university first vice president second vice president christopher borick steven a. peterson muhlenberg college pennsylvania state university, harrisburg treasurer secretary george hale paula holoviak kutztown university kutztown university executive council 2011–14 term michele demary kyle krieder susquehanna university wilkes university 2012–15 term john kennedy mark sachlaben west chester university shippensburg university 2013–16 term joseph mclaughlin ayesha ray temple university kings college ex officio members past president past president paula holoviak stanley berard kutztown university lock haven university editorial staff of commonwealth: a journal of political science editor-in-chief gerard j. fitzpatrick ursinus college associate editor & associate editor & book review editor special issue editor thomas j. baldino michael r. king wilkes university temple university associate editor managing editor for political theory michael cassidy donald g. tannenbaum temple university gettysburg college iii contents volume 16, number 1 september 2013 isbn 0890-2410 about the authors ......................................................................................v about the book reviews ......................................................................... vii in the commonwealth by gerard j. fitzpatrick, editor .................. ix articles the disenfranchisement of black pennsylvanians in the 1838 state constitution: racism, politics, or economics?—a statistical analysis david a. latzko .............................................................................1 federalism and the pennsylvania legislature: partisanship and intergovernmental priorities j. wesley leckrone and justin gollob ......................................... 21 where was the electricity? agenda setting and the politics of electric-rate caps in pennsylvania daniel j. mallinson ..................................................................... 41 three strikes and you’re out? why three republican governors failed to privatize pennsylvania’s state liquor monopoly george hale................................................................................ 63 collective bargaining and municipal distress: state problem, state solution erik l. soliván ............................................................................ 81 administrative influence over legislative policy making in the american states joshua ozymy, denis rey, and samuel s. stanton jr. .............. 101 iv book reviews daniel biddle and murray dubin, tasting freedom: octavius catto and the battle for equality in civil war america review by judith giesberg ............................................................ 122 brian c. black and michael j. chiarappa, eds. nature’s entrepôt—philadelphia’s urban sphere and its environmental thresholds review by marleen a. troy ........................................................... 124 franklin l. kury, clean politics, clean streams: a legislative autobiography and reflections review by kyle l. kreider ............................................................ 125 donald g. tannenbaum, inventors of ideas: an introduction to western political philosophy (3d ed.) review by michael r. dillon ........................................................ 127 joe w. trotter and jared n. day, race and renaissance: african americans in pittsburgh since world war ii review by arthur m. holst ........................................................... 130 v about the authors justin gollob, phd, is an assistant professor of political science at colorado mesa university. he received his doctoral degree in political science from temple university. his research interests include the federal policy agendas of state governments, state legislative politics, and public lands management. george e. hale, phd, is an assistant professor of political science at kutztown university of pennsylvania. he received his doctoral degree from syracuse university. for three decades, he served in federal, state, and local government, including eight years as delaware’s secretary of administrative services. his research focuses on state budgets, governors, and organizational change in public agencies. david a. latzko, phd, is an associate professor of economics at pennsylvania state university—york. he received his doctoral degree from the university of maryland. his research focuses on the economic history of pennsylvania. j. wesley leckrone, phd, is an assistant professor of political science at widener university. he received his doctoral degree from temple university. his research interests include intergovernmental lobbying and the federal policy agendas of state and local governments. daniel mallinson is a phd candidate in political science at the pennsylvania state university. he primarily studies politics in the american states, with a focus on particular policy areas including education, energy, and environmental protection. his dissertation examines the diffusion of policy innovations across the states. joshua ozymy, phd, is an associate professor of political science at texas a&m university—corpus christi. his research focuses primarily on environmental politics and policy, as well as state politics. his work has appeared in environmental politics, political behavior, american politics research, state politics and policy quarterly, and review of policy research. denis rey, phd, is an assistant professor of government and world affairs at the university of tampa. he also serves as a research member at the centre d’etudes sur l’integration et la mondialisation (ceim) at the university of quebec at montreal. his current research concerns the relationship between electoral rules and public policy. erik l. soliván, jd, is vice president for policy, research, and enterprise planning at the philadelphia housing authority. he received his juris doctorate degree from the rutgers university school of law—camden and his bachelor of arts degree in political science from haverford college. he vi was the henry j. raimóndo fellow at the eagleton institute of politics at rutgers university. he served as special assistant to the deputy secretary for community affairs and development in the pennsylvania department of community and economic development, and he was formerly a senior analyst at public financial management, llc. samuel s. stanton jr., phd, is an associate professor of political science at grove city college. his research, which focuses primarily on modeling socioeconomic causes of conflict, has been published in comparative political studies and politics and policy. vii about the book reviewers michael r. dillon, jd, phd, is chair of the department of political science at la salle university. judith giesberg, phd, is an associate professor of history at villanova university and the author of army at home: women and the civil war on the northern home front (university of north carolina press, 2009). arthur m. holst received his phd in political science from temple university and serves as business and government affairs manager for the city of philadelphia water department. he is an adjunct faculty member at fairleigh dickinson university and has written extensively on politics, public administration, history, and environmental issues. kyle l. kreider, phd, is an associate professor of political science at wilkes university and currently serves as chair of its behavioral and social sciences division. he is the coauthor with thomas j. baldino of of the people, by the people, for the people: a documentary record of voting rights and election reform, and u.s. election campaigns: a documentary history, both published by abc-clio in 2009 and 2011, respectively. marleen a. troy, phd, pe, is a licensed professional engineer and associate professor of environmental engineering in the department of environmental engineering & earth sciences at wilkes university. she has experience in environmental management and biological treatment techniques for remediation, including more than eight years in hazardous waste remediation, consulting, and contracting. dr. troy’s research interests currently focus on environmental sustainability metrics. commonwealth: a journal of political science  volume 15, number 1  may 2009 policy issue on emergency management  2009 ppsa/lorl, pa house of reps. issn 0890-2410 emergency management: selected policy issues beverly a. cigler, phd penn state harrisburg every inch of our land, air, and water is vulnerable to disaster. the complexity of emergency management (em) and its growing importance necessitates that lessons are learned, not merely noted, based on disaster experience. this symposium examines a number of issues important to the em community, including state policymakers. the lessons imparted seek to build “institutional memory” for those involved with the various phases of em: mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery. governments alone cannot do all that is needed to deal with emergencies. em involves building collaborative relationships among and between levels of government and across the public, private and nonprofit sectors. four of the articles here deal explicitly with partnerships – their need, development, and maintenance. christopher j. moran, a planner for the pa region 13 task force, examines an important but relatively neglected issue, the role and use of volunteers in em. in “utilization of private resources to supplement government resources in case of emergency,” moran provides an overview of some of the key existing volunteer programs in the field of em. he outlines the benefits and costs of using volunteers and provides a set of criteria to use when assessing policy options. christopher moran then makes a specific programmatic recommendation for supplementing government resources with private resources. overall, moran’s contribution buttresses the important point that em can never be fully funded and that government must look to partnering with the private sector. the development of partnerships beyond individual jurisdictions is an essential need for dealing with emergencies. state and federal resources cannot be relied upon initially and there is a gap between when resources are requested and when they are operationally available. pennsylvania has an explicit comprehensive and systematic regional approach to emergency management. gregory g. noll, program 2 emergency management: selected policy issues manager of the south central task force (sctf), offers an overview of pennsylvania’s regional approach in “regional response to allhazards events: a commonwealth perspective.” the sctf is one of nine regional counter-terrorism task forces formed in 1997 by the commonwealth to coordinate local and regional efforts in response to acts of terrorism. additional authorities were later granted under pennsylvania’s counterterrorism planning, preparedness and response act 227-2002. today, the nine task forces strive to develop all-hazards regional approaches. drs. louise k. comfort, daniel mosse, and taieb znati, all of the university of pittsburgh, also examine regional response in “managing risk in real time: integrating information technology into disaster risk reduction and response.” emergency managers increasingly rely on decision support systems to provide real-time information for the complex tasks of predicting, communicating, and responding to emergencies. various software programs already exist but, as the authors explain, none has been particularly successful in providing the type of dynamic, yet focused, information that emergency managers need. emergency managers, operating at different locations and carrying out different functions simultaneously, require timely, valid information that can be updated quickly as conditions change. a “common operating picture” must be developed for the myriad of emergency managers working at different levels of responsibility and exposed to different degrees of risk to enable them to take more informed, effective action in a coordinated response for a region. the authors present information on a prototype decision support system under development at the university of pittsburgh. the interactive, intelligent, spatial information system (iisis) laboratory focuses on the degree to which the capacity of a region to respond to shared risk can be enhanced by innovative information technologies. a community’s capacity for response is considered as a dynamic interorganizational system characterized by four key decision points: 1) detection of risk; 2) recognition and interpretation of risk for the immediate context; 3) communication of risk to multiple organizations in a wider region; and 4) self organization and mobilization of a collective, community response system to reduce risk and respond to danger. the decision points embrace individual, organizational, and system levels of aggregation and communication of information that are used to create a “common knowledge base” that supports collective action to reduce risk. beverly a. cigler 3 the authors develop five propositions as part of a conceptual framework for building resilience in communities exposed to recurring risk. the joint readiness center, located at the air reserve station in pittsburgh, is another noteworthy collaborative model. it was established by the base realignment and closure commission in 2005 and has been identified by the department of defense (dod) as a center of excellence in integrating civilian medical and business resources with military assets to provide unique, flexible, and effective emergency preparedness, response, and recovery to the nation. george a. huber, david r. campbell, keith g. dorman, and leigh a. mcintosh, in “joint readiness center – pittsburgh: a model of military-civilian readiness and response,” describe the center’s origin and activities. the authors are part of the joint readiness center task force (jrc task force), a community organization that supports the center, which is a national model for homeland security and homeland defense. the jrc seeks to improve the nation’s response to disasters caused by humans or natural hazards by combining the strengths of the active duty, reserve, and guard components of the military, including the five armed services; federal, state and local government agencies such as the federal emergency management agency (fema), national disaster medical system, disaster medical assistance team, pennsylvania emergency management agency (pema); civilian practitioners skilled in disaster management; as well as the pittsburgh region’s extensive healthcare resources. realizing jrc’s full potential depends on continuing and enhancing the collaborative between the community and its partners. a fifth symposium article was written by karen finkenbinder, a phd candidate at penn state harrisburg in public administration. in “residency requirements for first responders,” finkenbinder assesses a previously neglected issue in emergency management. the response to the effects of hurricane katrina and the great flood of new orleans in 2005 highlights an unacknowledged problem associated with first responder families. evacuation plans in new orleans did not include consideration of the special needs of the families of first responders. it was difficult for police, fire, and emergency medical personnel to help others when they were witnessing the endangerment of their families and homes. after katrina, new orleans and other cities turned to rewriting 4 emergency management: selected policy issues their emergency plans to consider a host of issues, including the needs of first responders’ families. finkenbinder presents a balanced treatment of the residency issue, both from the individual and community perspective. she offers a set of pro and con arguments and places the issue within the broader framework of federalism and related legal issues. the sixth and final article in the symposium, “the state role in emergency management (em): significant challenges,” was written by the symposium editor, dr. beverly a. cigler, penn state harrisburg. she argues that the key state roles in em are: the facilitation of local disaster mitigation; assisting the public and elected and appointed leadership in understanding risk and mitigating disasters; building the capacity of first responders by strengthening their preparedness and response capabilities; and paying increased attention to shaping the environment in which the state and local governments operate within the federal emergency management system. much of the state role is direct capacity-building directed at local governments, citizens, and first responders, but much involves money and legal issues. microsoft word journal commonwealth 2007 final 0307.doc 1 thomas aquinas and the overlapping consensus daniel dileo pennsylvania state university at altoona john rawls claims that the belief that there is but one reasonable and rational conception of “the good” is incompatible with political liberalism. a close examination of the thought of thomas aquinas, however, reveals that commitment to a particular conception of “the good” need not imply a rejection of liberalism. in fact, aquinas’ notion of political virtue anticipates rawls’ overlapping consensus. in addition, a thorough exploration of aquinas’ work indicates that, for the most part, he accepts the underlying assumptions that william galston finds at the core of political liberalism. john locke and others who provided the ideological foundations of liberalism presented themselves as believers applying the tenets of their faith to political questions. the liberal constraints upon the state are largely a product of monotheism’s formulation of an absolute good that is beyond our comprehension.1 nevertheless, liberalism’s refusal to privilege any particular fixed conception of the good seems to bring it into opposition with any faith that makes positive claims about the nature of the good life and the purpose of human existence. max weber (1958, 79–80) claimed that prior to luther there was no such thing as the modern notion of “the calling,” (beruf), which stands against the power of political or religious authorities to make the decisions that determine what individuals do with their lives. the tension between liberalism and religion would appear to be particularly acute when the positive claims about the nature of the good life are delivered as pronouncements of a hierarchical church leadership that claims to be the voice of god on earth, such as the leadership of the roman catholic church. john rawls places thomas aquinas within the “dominant tradition”2 that holds that there is but one reasonable and rational conception of the good, a view rawls (1996, 134–135) considers to be incompatible with political liberalism. i maintain, however, that aquinas’ understanding of virtue as a multi-tiered category allows his commitment to a single, comprehensive 2 doctrine of the good to allow space for a considerable range of heterodox views as long as he does not see those views as a direct threat to the souls of the faithful. aquinas may differ with liberal democracy on the desirability of widespread political participation and other matters, but his views on pluralism are remarkable for their similarity to those of rawls. the argument aquinas makes on behalf of pluralism goes beyond providing reasons for accepting rawls’ “overlapping consensus” of disparate “reasonable comprehensive doctrines” once it has been instituted (rawls 1985, 225–226; rawls 1996, 134). aquinas argues that the creation of an overlapping consensus is a positive good in itself. nor is his support for an overlapping consensus an aberrant anomaly that is inconsistent with his general views. it is of a piece with his acceptance of a set of metaphysical assumptions that is remarkably similar to those william galston (1988) identifies as the essential foundation of political liberalism. aquinas’ acceptance of these assumptions is evident in passages that are laced throughout his copious works. if the work of aquinas is compatible with political pluralism, it is entirely possible that other apparently anti-liberal religious traditions that contain a similar multi-tiered conception of virtue and similar metaphysical assumptions about the human person may also have room for diverse political views. this article shows how in the presence of certain beliefs about the human condition that are very similar to those at the core of modern liberalism, aquinas’ understanding of virtue as a multitiered category yields support for an overlapping consensus in the political arena. this is not to say that aquinas is a supporter of the system of rights upon which modern liberal regimes are based. the right, ius, to which aquinas refers, is part of a right order of things, of relations between individuals. it is not something that is held by individuals to use in whatever way they choose. like aristotle’s dikaion, it is an objective right rather than a subjective one.3 my claim, however, is that even if aquinas does not establish rights in the modern, subjective sense,4 he makes strong arguments for a society that permits multiple conceptions of the good.5 my assessment of aquinas in this respect stands in direct contrast to that of rawls, and it raises the possibility that conceptions of the good that do not explicitly endorse democracy may nevertheless 3 tolerate multiple and divergent comprehensive doctrines of the good. aquinas’ links to liberalism rawls (1996, 93) holds that a stable liberal democracy is made possible by a particular conception of justice. according to this conception, the application of our beliefs about the good to the problems that life presents to us (practical reason) will produce a diversity of views about the ideal human life and character (comprehensive doctrines) that possess features that make them “reasonable.” rawls (1996, 54, 58–59) maintains that in order to be reasonable, a comprehensive doctrine must be fairly consistent and coherent in the way it treats the major religious, philosophical and moral aspects of life, must prioritize values so that they can motivate real-life choices, and must rest upon an intellectual and doctrinal tradition. the conception of justice that makes political liberalism possible posits that no single comprehensive doctrine should exercise political hegemony by specifying which questions will be regarded as “constitutional,” settled, and thus beyond the reach of ordinary political processes (rawls 1966, 135). this is not because justice so understood denies the possibility that any single comprehensive doctrine may possess the truth about the ideal human good and character, but because adherents of many comprehensive doctrines can be sufficiently reasonable to rely on fundamental ideas of the public political culture rather than on ideas that are peculiar to their own comprehensive doctrines to settle constitutional questions (rawls 1996, 150–151). rawls calls the agreement of adherents of more than one reasonable comprehensive doctrine to establish a constitutional regime based only on ideas found in the public political culture the “overlapping consensus” (1996, 14). its key feature is that none of the participants seek to place views that are distinctive to their own comprehensive doctrine beyond the reach of the ordinary political process. aquinas reaches a similar position through his discussion of the four cardinal virtues. they are “justice,” which is giving each his due; “temperance,” which is refraining from acts that are motivated by the passions against the judgment of the intellect; “fortitude,” 4 which is having the courage to act as the intellect tells us we should despite passions such as fear that would prevent us from right action; and “prudence,” which directs the other virtues by reasoning correctly about the situations in which we find ourselves (oesterle 1984, 110: summa theologiae, i–ii, question 61, article 2, response). aquinas classifies these as “moral virtues” because they provide us with the will to act rightly. other virtues, the intellectual virtues, provide us with the understanding that we need to act rightly (oesterle 1984, 109: summa theologiae, i–ii, question 61, article 1, response). aquinas believes that the virtues are multitiered. they can be possessed to various degrees of perfection, which determines the objects to which they are applied. when they are most perfectly possessed, they are “exemplar virtues.” only god possesses the virtues to this degree. human beings are capable of possessing virtues at three lower degrees of perfection. the highest of the three is the “perfect” level of virtues. these are the virtues belonging to those who are “blessed or to those who are most perfect in this life.”6 at the next tier are the “purifying virtues,” which are those virtues that move us away from the cares of the world and toward the perfect virtues.7 at the lowest tier are the “political virtues” (virtutes politicas). in his discussion of the virtues possessed at the level of the “political virtues,” aquinas advocates a political order based on a rawlsian overlapping consensus. accepting aristotle’s definition of man as a political animal, aquinas argues that these virtues, by which “man comports himself rightly in human affairs,” exist in man according to the condition of his nature” (oesterle 1984, 116: summa theologiae, i–ii, question 61, article 5). this is to say that god endows all of us with these virtues at birth. they do not require any subsequent divine infusion, faith, knowledge of god, or even the virtue of charity. aquinas maintains that pagans can possess these virtues in full measure.8 in claiming that the virtues required for right action in human affairs are “natural” and not the exclusive possession of believers, aquinas is justifying an “overlapping consensus” composed of believers and nonbelievers alike who possess the virtues of justice, temperance, fortitude and prudence to the degree of the political virtues. given aquinas’ preference for nondemocratic political institutions, how extensive is the scope of the decisions to be made by the politically virtuous members of aquinas’ overlapping 5 consensus? more specifically, does it include political activity? aquinas strongly suggests that it does. the word that he uses to describe these virtues is politicas. the fathers of the english dominican province (1947) translate the word as “social.” but oesterle (1984) translates it as “political.” oesterle’s translation is better because it is the same word that aquinas uses to paraphrase aristotle’s claim that “man is a political animal,”9 and we know that aristotle had in mind a range of activities that includes those that we call “political.”10 moreover, in the same response (oesterle 1984, 116: summa theologiae, i–ii, question 61, article 5), aquinas states that the virtutes politicas are those virtues by which a person “comports himself rightly in human affairs” (recte se habet in rebus humanis gerendis). the people may not have been sovereign in aquinas’ ideal state, but the members of his overlapping consensus were clearly involved “in the conduct of human affairs.” although aquinas does not discuss the implications of this claim for the constitutional regime, and although he makes a number of assertions that contradict it, it is clear that his justification of the overlapping consensus is part and parcel of a general understanding of the human condition that shares several key features with that which resides at the metaphysical core of contemporary liberalism. there have been many attempts to identify the key assumptions that support liberalism. perhaps the clearest and most concise effort has been that of william galston (1988, 1285) who emphasizes three assumptions of contemporary liberal theory, each with its own implications for the conduct of political life. galston claims that today’s liberal theories rest on the assumption that our earthly existence is intrinsically valuable. he maintains that attributing value to our own earthly existence implies attributing value to the earthly existence of others, thereby obliging us to preserve the lives of others and prohibiting cruelty to them. galston also contends that today’s liberal theories assume that we value the achievement of human purposes. he believes that this implies tolerance because we must value the achievement of others’ purposes if we value our own. although galston does not mention it, tolerance of the efforts of others to pursue the good life as they see fit in turn implies support for the right of others to decide for themselves what the good life consists of. in other words, valuing the achievement of human purposes ultimately implies support for freedom of 6 conscience. the third core belief that galston identifies is that reason should constrain those of our actions that affect other people. he calls this the principle of “social rationality.” it implies that reason must restrain our passions and that moderation should characterize our political agendas. aquinas goes beyond mere agreement with all of the beliefs that galston identifies as foundations of contemporary liberal theories. he argues forcefully on their behalf. when combined with a conception of virtue as a multi-tiered category, the value that aquinas places on earthly existence, the achievement of human purposes, and reason as a constraint on social interactions implies a high degree of tolerance for multiple divergent conceptions of the good. value of earthly existence although galston (1988, 1285) doubts that “otherworldliness” is compatible with affirming the value of our earthly existence, the otherworldly concerns of aquinas do not prevent him from arguing strongly and consistently for it. the logical starting point of aquinas’ affirmation of the value of our earthly existence is his assertion that it is both real and distinct from divine existence. the universe and its contents have their own fully real existence that is fundamentally different from god’s.11 our apparent existence as distinct individual human beings with distinct minds is also real.12 aquinas is thus prepared to see the mind of the other who holds ideas that are fundamentally different from his own as fully real and distinct, not as mere instances of false consciousness produced by forces exterior to and greater than themselves. the divergent views of others therefore deserve respect. for aquinas, our earthly existence is distinct from god’s existence but it is not disconnected from the eternal. aquinas makes this point by accepting aristotle’s notion of formal cause, which he illustrates by comparison of the relationship of soul to body with the relationship of shape to wax.13 our earthly existence takes on value because that which gives it its character and its purpose is eternal. not only is the body the matter of which the soul is the form, but our “most important attributes” such as “sensation, memory, passion, appetite and desire in general, and, in addition, pleasure and pain” are “generated in the soul through the medium of the body.”14 it is through the body and its sensation, memory, 7 passion, appetite, desire, pleasure and pain that we become what we are meant to be.15 aquinas even goes so far as to rebut explicitly plato’s claim that the body is an instrument of the soul.16 aquinas strongly rejects the notion that the body and its movements are illusory, evil or unimportant. in aquinas’ view, our earthly existence has both intrinsic and instrumental value. its instrumental value lies in its function as moral and intellectual preparation for our ultimate purpose, the contemplation of god. it is by understanding the “divine effects,” the tangible things that god has created, that we are led to the contemplation of god.17 aquinas also maintains that we come to understand god by learning what god is not. god is not anything that has been created. the more we know about god’s creation, the more we can understand god by learning what god is not.18 in these ways, earthly existence can enable us to move toward our ultimate purpose by providing a means by which our intellects can begin to comprehend the nature of god. rather than contemplating god through an exclusive focus on the otherworldly, aquinas sees us learning about god by learning about what is in this world, including the concerns and ideas of other citizens. aquinas believes that earthly existence has intrinsic value as well.19 we can achieve an imperfect happiness in this life through our natural powers, that is to say, without faith or direct divine intervention.20 this earthly happiness requires the body because it is through the body that we understand21 and because a beautiful body contributes to our happiness by contributing to our well-being (mcinerny 1998, 530–531: summa theologiae, i–ii, question 4, article 5, response). “feebleness of the body” (invalitudineum corporis), on the other hand, impedes our efforts to develop virtue, thereby interfering with our prospects of happiness in this life (mcinerny 1998, 533: summa theologiae, i–ii, question 4, article 6, response). aquinas also affirms the value of our earthly existence by claiming that the perfect happiness of the next life cannot be complete without the pleasures of the body22 and friendship (mcinerny, 1998, 536: summa theologiae, i–ii, question 4, article 8, response to objection 3) as we have come to know them in this life. aquinas respects the imperfect happiness that becomes available to us through natural reason and the body. by implication, he respects the efforts of people to attain imperfect happiness. they may or may not be adherents of the true faith. 8 galston contends that valuing our earthly existence implies a rejection of cruelty and acceptance of an obligation to preserve the lives of others. aquinas also rejects cruelty (finnis 1998, 126: summa theologiae, i–ii, question 100, article 3, response) and he recognizes an obligation to treat others as neighbors and brothers (finnis 1998, 126, note 112: summa theologiae, i–ii, question 78, article 1, response to objection 2). the strength of aquinas’ rejection of cruelty and recognition of the obligation to preserve the lives of others is evident in his discussion of the virtues of the will. aquinas believed that the will automatically desires the good as presented to it by the intellect.23 therefore, most good habits, or virtues, are responses to the intellect.24 yet, in the case of “charity, justice and the like,” mere guidance by the intellect is not sufficient to bring about sufficiently strong desire by the will. the will needs its own virtue to make it more strongly committed to love of god and neighbor (mcinerny 1998, 670: summa theologiae, i–ii, question 56, article 6, response). the centrality of treating others well in aquinas’ thought is manifested by his definition of virtue as “a good quality of mind whereby one lives rightly and uses no one badly and which god without our help works in us” (mcinerny 1998, 658: summa theologiae, i–ii, question 55, article 4, response, to objection 1, italics added). with regard to the treatment of others, the affinity between aquinas and contemporary liberal theory does not end with his rejection of cruelty and recognition of the obligation to preserve the lives of others. he goes so far as to identify certain objective rights, which we owe to everyone, including “the right to have one’s property respected by others” and “the right not to be falsely accused or defamed” (finnis 1998, 136: summa theologiae, i–ii question 122, article 6, response). he provides a variety of justifications for these positions. one justification is very similar to a principle galston (1988) offers: by the mere fact of their existence, all beings are good.25 another justification is his understanding of “eternal law,” which structures the universe as a “complete community” of beings (finnis 1998, 307: summa theologiae, i–ii question 91, article 1, response), each of whom can attain full perfection only by enabling others to do so.26 as john finnis recognizes, it is aquinas’ contention that to love one’s neighbor as oneself is a moral precept that can be derived through our ordinary powers of reason.27 love of neighbor and respect for 9 property and reputation are qualities that are accessible to believers and nonbelievers alike, and they can provide essential psychological underpinnings for a functioning pluralist regime. fulfillment of individual purposes galston (1988, 1285) claims that all contemporary liberal theories value “the fulfillment of individual purposes.” aquinas agrees in a variety of senses, some of which differ from the sense in which a liberal democrat would understand the phrase.28 he defines happiness as the attainment of our ultimate end (mcinerny 1998, 496: summa theologiae, i–ii, question 2, prologue). ultimate human ends are individual in the sense that they must be freely chosen by autonomous agents.29 but they are not individual in the sense that the end that an individual chooses can be anything at all. in fact, the only final end that a free person will choose is perfect, eternal happiness, which is union with god.30 the pursuit of ends by the “natural” (sub-rational) appetite undirected by the intellect is not free and, therefore, not characteristically human.31 only the selection of an end by the rational appetite can be individual in the sense of being chosen by a free individual, and the only ultimate end a free individual will choose is perfect and eternal happiness. aquinas defends freedom on the grounds that only a free choice is a fully human choice. yet, he does not take this position because he thinks all paths to the ultimate end are equally good.32 his defense of freedom is based on his understanding of the divine will. it is one that has special appeal to his fellow believers. aquinas insists that we cannot attain our final end, union with god, in this life (mcinerny 1998, 530: summa theologiae, i–ii, question 4, article 5, response). a healthy body (mcinerny 1998, 533: summa theologiae, i–ii, question 4, article 6, response), a clear mind (mcinerny 1998, 530: summa theologiae, i–ii, question 4, article 5, response), and the things that the body needs are necessary for the imperfect happiness that we can attain in this life because they make virtuous activity possible.33 activity is the essence of happiness in this life.34 moreover, aquinas accepts aristotle’s contention34 that it is only when “the necessities of life and amusement or pleasure” have been secured that we seek wisdom (mcinerny 1998, 740: commentary on the metaphysics, lesson 3). this is true for nonbelievers as well as believers. thus, 10 aquinas supports the fulfillment of individual purposes in the contemporary sense of acquiring “the necessities of life, amusement or pleasure” because it frees all of us to pursue higher goods. his position implies tolerance through valuing achievement of the individual purposes of all, the process that galston identifies as key in promoting tolerance. rawls claims, however, that as an exponent of “the dominant tradition,” aquinas does not support “even a limited tolerance” (1971, 216). he bases this claim on a passage in which aquinas says that heretics deserve to be handed over by the church to the state, which will put them to death.36 rawls does not realize that there is more than one path to limited tolerance. finnis (1998, 279– 284) argues that aquinas fails to maintain a logically consistent position on capital punishment. maria fontana magee (1999) suggests that aquinas does not believe that the state should put people to death simply for their beliefs. she points to passages in which aquinas says that the state should respect human freedom as god respects human freedom,37 tolerating certain evils, including prostitution, because to do away with them would cause a greater evil than to tolerate them.38 aquinas insists that the state should respect customs39 and not try to perfect the souls of men. regarding unbelievers, pagans, and heretics, aquinas rejects intolerance when it might hinder a gradual conversion to the faith.40 finnis (1998, 223–226) notes aquinas’ assertion that the state should restrict itself to the defense of the “common good”41 (bonum publicum) by regulating only those acts that impinge directly upon the lives of others and not attempting to regulate the inner life, morality, or beliefs of individuals.42 mark johnson (1992) cites another respect in which aquinas supports tolerance of dissenting views: his claim that there legitimately can be divergent literal interpretations of scripture. nevertheless, aquinas did support the execution of heretics when they posed a serious threat to the souls of the faithful. this is a significant difference between the political order he advocated and liberal democracy. 43 yet, aquinas supports the execution of heretics solely because of the threat they pose to the souls of the faithful. he rejects the exclusion of anyone from the realm of public affairs on the basis of their religious beliefs or disbelief. of course, those executed for their religious beliefs are effectively excluded from participation in public affairs, to say the least. political pluralism obviously cannot 11 be reconciled with religious intolerance. aquinas never resolves this contradiction, but it is a genuine contradiction. he is a strong supporter of both political pluralism and the execution of heretics. aquinas’ arguments for freedom of conscience further buttress the claim that despite his willingness to have heretics executed, he is, in many ways, an advocate of the tolerance necessary for an overlapping consensus.44 he argues that conscience is our understanding of god’s will (mcinerny 1998, 233: disputed questions on truth, question 17, article 4, response) and that each person’s understanding of that will is different (pegis 1945, 701: summa theologica, i, question 76, article 2, response). this is a key dimension of his well-known efforts to find a place for reason to exist along with philosophy by introducing the philosophy of aristotle into the church. aquinas believes that it is always a sin to violate conscience, even when conscience is in error45 and even when it contradicts the command of a bishop.46 this is because he sees conscience as our knowledge of god’s will, and god is a higher authority than any bishop. it is ultimately our conscience that tells us god’s will, not the bishop. to state that an individual has an absolute obligation to follow conscience, and that it is possible that conscience may be right while the bishop is wrong is to imply tolerance, especially in light of aquinas’ assertion that it is “better to err often by thinking well of bad people than to err even rarely by thinking badly of someone good. for the latter, not the former involves wronging someone” (finnis 1998, 137: summa theologiae, i–ii, question 60, article 4). although aquinas tells us that it is always wrong to violate the promptings of conscience, he is not saying that the truth is whatever an individual thinks it is. he speaks of correct consciences and erroneous consciences and states that to have an erroneous conscience when one should know better is also a sin (mcinerny 1998, 235: disputed question on truth, question 17, article 4, response to objection 3), although not as grievous a sin as violating conscience (mcinerny 1998, 233: disputed question on truth, question 17, article 4, response). so aquinas is no relativist. yet, he does accept the millian argument that free competition of ideas leads us toward the truth. “for men help each other in coming to know the truth; by challenging each other, they lead each other to what is good and draw each other back from what is evil. as it is 12 said in prov 27:17, ‘iron sharpens iron, and a man sharpens the character of his friend.’”47 this argument is consistent with the pluralism of the overlapping consensus. aquinas values the fulfillment of individual purposes in the contemporary sense of attaining the necessities of life, amusement, pleasure, and knowledge because it makes the search for higher goods possible. he also values it in the sense that he sees the fulfillment of our final individual purpose as the attainment of a freely chosen union with god. galston contends that valuing the fulfillment of individual purposes necessarily implies tolerance for the purposes and means of others. consistent with the ideal of tolerance, aquinas believes that governments, like god, should let people be free to make their own decisions whenever the social cost of doing so is not prohibitive. aquinas wants to restrict the authority of government to matters of the common good, regulating only those acts that impinge directly on others, generally leaving matters of conscience, private life, and private morality to the discretion of free individuals. although he considers some ideas to be definitively right and others to be definitively wrong, aquinas believes that we benefit when our ideas are challenged by people who disagree with us. social rationality according to galston (1988, 1285–1286), the third assumption of contemporary theories of liberalism is that rationality should constrain our interactions with others. he claims that this principle implies the necessity of keeping the passions under reason’s control, which results in moderation in private and public life. aquinas shares these views. the need for reason to control the passions is one of the aristotelian themes pervading his work.48 in fact, two of the four “political” virtues, which we must have if we are to live well among other people are defined as the control of reason over the passions.49 temperance is the political virtue that restrains the passions when they incite us to do something contrary to reason, and fortitude is the political virtue that allows reason to prevail when passions such as fear prevent us from doing what we should.50 aquinas’ support for social rationality is implied by his conception of virtue as a multi-tiered category. he contrasts the 13 political virtues, which we possess because man is by nature a political animal, with the purifying and perfect virtues, which have god as their object (oesterle 1984, 110: summa theologiae, i–ii, question 51, article 5, response). unlike the purifying and perfect virtues, the political virtues are possessed by believers and nonbelievers alike through the exercise of natural reason. for aquinas, the moderation that comes about through social rationality is possible in a community with multiple conceptions of the good. our capacity for political virtue means that citizens can be even-tempered, brave, and in control of their passions. such citizens are clearly less susceptible to the lures of political extremism. political virtue enables all citizens to be autonomous individuals whose acts are directed by their own knowledge of right and wrong. they deserve to be treated as such. as aquinas states, “one who serves some community serves each of the people contained in it,” serving them as individuals, not as a reified “society,” “class,” “folk,” “community of believers,” or “nation” amenable to extremist agendas of social control (finnis 1998, 118: summa theologiae, i–ii, question 58, article 5, response). like contemporary theorists of liberal democracy, aquinas thus holds that control of the passions by reason results in a moderate approach to politics. conclusion aquinas shares many of the core beliefs of contemporary liberal theorists. he values our earthly existence and the fulfillment of our individual purposes, both as intrinsic goods and as instrumental goods. he also believes that we all possess natural reason, which enables us to restrain our passions in our dealings with others and to take a moderate approach to politics. yet, aquinas does not take the same path to these beliefs as contemporary liberal theorists do. even when concluding that nonbelievers can be good citizens, aquinas starts from the premise that their natural powers of reason are god-given and will not lead them astray. when aquinas defends liberty it is not on the grounds that there is no conception of the good that merits preference, but on the grounds that we must be free if we are to choose to move toward god, which is his plan for us. aquinas thus provides a path toward support for liberalism that can appeal to those who recoil at its apparent rejection of any good 14 higher than the appeasement of the passions. i do not deny that aquinas’ preferred regime is the system defined by mosaic law, a rule by judges, supported in many ways by aristotle’s arguments on behalf of the rule of the best. still, rawls’ assessment of aquinas is oversimplified. it is not surprising that rawls has this view of aquinas. after all, on many occasions the church has used aquinas to support orthodox hierarchy and political conservatism. but the uses to which texts have been put may mislead us about what the texts may say to readers today, or even about what our best estimates tell us about the author’s intent. for in the presence of certain core beliefs about human nature that he shares with liberalism, aquinas’ adoption of a multi-tiered conception of virtue leads to an acceptance of a degree of pluralism in the political realm that excludes only those who pose a dire threat the highest goods and final ends. notes 1. like aquinas, botwinick (1997, 112–115 and 145–147) argues that monotheism implies that we can only say what god is not. botwinick claims that this “generalized agnosticism” brings forth a liberal politics that emphasizes keeping options open for the future rather than achievement of maximalist agendas, the liberal emphasis on the form or process rather than the substance of politics, and the liberal state’s support for tolerance, rights, and limited government. 2. since the 16th century when, at the council of trent, his summa theologiae lay open on the altar beside the bible, aquinas’ thought has defined orthodoxy for the roman catholic church. see sigmund (1988, xiii). i have used five translations of aquinas’ work: finnis (1998), mcinerny (1998), oesterle (1984), fathers of the english dominican province (1947), and pegis (1945). i use the most recent of the five to translate the pertinent text, specifying the particular translation. in addition, i follow the standard method of citing aquinas’ work according to section, question, and article. 3. strauss (1964, 45, 49) made this point by identifying modern right as a product of the dogma of “extreme skepticism” which produces a human selfawareness that “refuses to obey any law which it has not originated in its entirety or to dedicate itself to any ‘value’ of which it does not know that it is its own creation.” he contrasted modern subjective right with objective right as aristotle and aquinas understood it, in which “[m]an transcends the city only by pursuing true happiness, not by pursuing happiness however understood.” tierney (1997, 14) also identifies michel villey as playing an important role in highlighting the differences between objective right of the ancients (including aquinas) and modern subjective right. 4. cornish (1998, 561) claims that aquinas endorses a subjective right to marry. nonetheless, the subjective rights that cornish ascribes to aquinas do not 15 play the foundational role that they do in liberal democracies. finnis (1998, 133) argues that modern subjective right can be inferred from aquinas. “general justice can be specified into the forms of particular justice” (summa theologiae, i–ii, question 58, article 7; question 61, article 1), primarily fairness in the distribution of the benefits and burdens of social life, and proper respect for others {reverentia personae} in any conduct that affects them (summa theologiae, i–ii, question 62, articles 1 and 2). the object of particular justice (henceforth simply ‘justice’) is the other person’s right(s) {ius} (summa theologiae, i–ii, question 57, article 1c; question 60, article 1c). it follows, therefore, that one cannot respect or promote common good without respecting and promoting rights.” tierney (2002, 394) disagrees, arguing that, although they are compatible, one cannot be derived from the other. since this article is not arguing that aquinas’ defense of pluralism depended on or implied the subjective right of individuals, it does not address this question directly. 5. i agree with maritain (1971, 20) that an understanding of the human person derived from aristotle and aquinas implies political pluralism. maritain goes much further, however endorsing democracy as the term is currently understood (1971, 51–53). i concur with hittinger (2002, 50–51) that maritain’s endorsement of democracy fails to take aquinas’ critique of democracy and his advocacy of nondemocratic regimes sufficiently seriously. 6. “thus prudence now sees only divine things, temperance knows no earthly desires, fortitude is oblivious to the passions, and justice is united with the divine mind in an everlasting bond, by imitating it. these are the virtues we attribute to the blessed or to those who are most perfect in this life” (oesterle 1984, 109: summa theologiae, i–ii, question 61, article 5). 7. “thus prudence, by contemplating divine things, counts all worldly things as nothing and directs all thought of the soul only to what is divine; temperance puts aside the customary needs of the body so far as nature permits; fortitude prevents the soul from being afraid of withdrawing from bodily needs and rising to heavenly things; and justice brings the whole soul’s accord to such a way of life” (oesterle 1984, 109: summa theologiae, i–ii, question 61, article 5). 8. “as we have said, the moral virtues, inasmuch as they are productive of good works ordered to an end which does not surpass the natural capacity of man, can be acquired by human actions. and acquired in this way they can be without charity, as has happened with many pagans” (oesterle 1984, 143: summa theologiae, i–ii, question 65, article 2). 9. aquinas paraphrased aristotle’s “kai ‘οτι ‘ο ‘ανθρωπος φυσει πολιτικον ζωον” (politics, 1253a3) as “et quiam homo secundum suam naturam est animal politicum” (oesterle 1984, 143: summa theologiae, i–ii, question 61, article 5, response). 10. oesterle’s translation of politica is also the one that is consistent with the standard usage of the word as reported by webster’s online latin-english dictionary, http://www.websters-online-dictionary.org/translation /latin/ politicus. 11. “though we say that god is existence alone, we ought not to fall into the error of those who say that god is that universal existence whereby each thing formally is. a characteristic of the existence of god is that nothing can be added to it, hence it is distinct from every other existence by its own purity” (mcinerny 1998, 44: on being and essence, chapter 5). one clear implication of this claim is that we are distinct from god and thus fully responsible for our actions. in fact, the 16 claim that human beings are autonomous agents is one of the most pervasive themes running throughout aquinas’ work. 12. “it is absolutely impossible for one intellect to belong to all men. this is clear if, as plato maintained, man is the intellect itself. for socrates and plato to have one intellect, it would follow that socrates and plato are one man, and that they are not distinct from each other, except by something outside the essence of each. the distinction between socrates and plato would then not be other than that of one man with a tunic and another with a cloak, which is quite absurd” (pegis 1945, 701). 13. “‘that is why we can wholly dismiss as unnecessary the question whether the soul and body are one.’ we do not ask whether wax and its shape are one, nor generally matter and the form of matter” (mcinerny 1998, 418: on aristotle’s de anima, lesson 1, chapter 234). 14. aquinas is approvingly quoting aristotle. mcinerny 1998, 448: preface to the commentary on aristotle’s on sense and the sensed object. 15. “for lower spiritual substances [as opposed to higher spiritual substances such as the angels and god], namely [human] souls, have an affinity with body insofar as they are the forms of bodies, and therefore by their very mode of existing it is fitting that they should attain intelligible perfection through bodies” (mcinerny 1998, 379: summa theologiae, i–ii, question 55, article 2, response). 16. “it is clear that man is not only a soul, but something composed of soul and body—plato, though supposing that sensation was proper to the soul, could maintain man to be a soul making use of a body” (pegis 1945, 688: summa theologiae, i–ii, question 75, article 4, response). 17. “but we are led by the divine effects to the contemplation of god, according to romans 1.20: ‘for since the creation of the world his invisible attributes are clearly seen—his everlasting power also and divinity—being understood through the things that are made’” (mcinerny 1998, 693: summa theologiae, i–ii, question 179, article 4, response). 18. “the divine substance exceeds by its immensity every form that our intellect can attain, and thus we cannot apprehend it by knowing what it is. but we have knowledge of a sort of it by knowing what it is not” (mcinerny 1998, 256: summa contra gentiles book i, chapter 14). 19. the earthly goods to which prudence directs us are “goods intrinsically and without qualification, which are desired as ends for their own sake, even when they lead to something else” (finnis 1998, 91, note 143: commentary on the sentences of peter lombard, book ii, distinction 21, question 1, answer 3, response). 20. “it should be said that the imperfect happiness that can be had in this life is acquired by man with his natural powers as can be the virtue in which this activity consists….” (mcinerny 1998, 544: summa theologiae, i–ii, question 5, article 5, response). 21. happiness requires the body because “the activity of the intellect cannot take place without the phantasm, which exists only in the bodily organ…. thus the happiness which can be had in this life depends in a certain way on the body” (mcinerny 1998, 530: summa theologiae, i–ii, question 4, article 5, response). 22. “thus the separation from body is said to retard the soul such that it does not with complete attention tend towards the vision of the divine essence. for the soul seeks so to enjoy god that the enjoyment redounds to the body to the degree 17 that this is possible. therefore as long as it enjoys god without its body, its desire is quieted by what it has, which, however, it still wants its body to have by participation in it” (mcinerny 1998, 531–532: summa theologiae, i–ii, question 4, article 6, response; summa theologiae, i–ii, question 4, article 5, response to objection 4). 23. “the object of the will is the good of reason proportioned to will” (mcinerny 1998, 670: summa theologiae, i–ii, question 56, response). 24. “habits of moral virtue are caused in appetitive powers as they are moved by reason” (oesterle 1984, 26: summa theologiae, i–ii, question 51, article 2, response). 25. “it should be said that every being, insofar as it is a being, is good. for every being, insofar as it is a being, is actual and in some way perfect, because every act is some sort of perfection” (mcinerny 1998, 348: summa theologiae i, question 3, article 5, response); “for in every person, even an evildoer, we ought to love the nature, which god made, which is destroyed by killing” (finnis 1998, 141: summa theologiae, i–ii question 64, article 6, response). 26. “one can be directing both oneself and others to the good in question; and that “it is more perfect to have a perfection and convey it to others than merely to have it in and for oneself; a contemplator who helps others equally to contemplate is therefore more perfect than one who merely contemplates” (finnis 1998, 318–319: iv sent, distinction 49, question 1, article 1, solution 3, response to objections 1 and 2). 27. finnis quotes the following passage: “the reason for loving is indicated in the word ‘neighbor,’ because the reason why we ought to love others out of charity is because they are nigh to us, both as to the natural image of god, and as to the capacity for glory” (finnis 1998, summa theologiae, ii, question 44, article 7, response). 28. one source of that difference lies in the difference in meaning between aquinas’ fines, usually translated as “ends” and galston’s “purposes.” “fines” can exist independently of the intention of the agent, whereas “purposes” generally do not. 29. “therefore, things that have reason move themselves to the end because they have dominion over their acts thanks to free will, which is a capacity of will and reason. things that lack reason, tend to the end by natural inclination, as if moved by another, not themselves, since they do not grasp the notion of end and therefore can order nothing to an end, but are only ordered to an end by another” (mcinerny 1998, 486: summa theologiae, i–ii, question 1, response). 30. “in men, according to the present state of life, it [happiness] is ultimate perfection according to an activity whereby man is joined with god” (mcinerny 1998, 512–513: summa theologiae, i–ii, question 3, article 2, response to objection 4). 31. “for if the agent is not determined to some effect, it would not do this rather than that; in order for it to produce a definite effect, it must be determined to something certain, which has the note of end. this determination, which comes about in the rational agent through rational appetite, which is called the will, comes about in other things by natural inclination, which is called the natural appetite. however, it should be noted that a thing tends to the end by its own action or motion in two ways. in one way, as moving itself to the end, as man does; in another way, as moved to the end by another, as the arrow tends to a 18 definite end because it is moved by the archer, who directs its action to the end” (mcinerny 1998, 486: summa theologiae, i–ii, question 1, article 2, response). 32. “but the judgment of human goods ought not to be taken from the stupid, but from the wise, just as judgment of taste is taken from those whose tongue is well disposed” (mcinerny 1998, 497: summa theologiae, i–ii, question 2, article 1, response to objection 1). 33. “it should be said that external goods are required for the imperfect happiness that can be had in this life, not as being of its essence, but as instrumentally serving happiness which consists of virtuous activity” (mcinerny 1998, 534: summa theologiae, i–ii, question 4, article 7, response). 34. “to live well consists of acting well” (mcinerny 1998, 678: summa theologiae, i–ii, question 57, article 5, response). 35. aristotle, the metaphysics 1.2. 36. “with regard to heretics two points must be observed: the one, on their own side, the other, on the side of the church. on their own side there is the sin, whereby they deserve not only to be separated from the church by excommunication, but also to be severed from the world by death. for it is a much graver matter to corrupt the faith which quickens the soul, than to forge money, which supports temporal life. wherefore if forgers of money and other evil-doers are forthwith condemned to death by the secular authority, much more reason is there for heretics, as soon as they are convicted of heresy to be not only excommunicated but even put to death…. for jerome commenting on gal. 5:9, “a little leaven,” says: ‘cut off the decayed flesh, expel the mangy sheep from the fold, lest the whole … flock perish, rot, die. arius was but one spark in alexandria, but as that spark was not at once put out, the whole earth was laid waste by its flame’” (fathers of the english dominican province 1947: summa theologica, i–ii, question 11, article 3, response). 37. “human government is derived from the divine government, and should imitate it. now although god is all-powerful and supremely good, nevertheless he allows certain evils to take place in the universe, which he might prevent, lest, without them, greater goods might be forfeited, or greater evils ensue” (fathers of the english dominican province 1947: summa theologica, i–ii, question 10, article 11, response). 38. “accordingly, in human government also, those who are in authority, rightly tolerate certain evils, lest certain goods be lost, or certain greater goods might be forfeited, or greater evils be incurred: thus augustine says (de ordine ii, 4): “if you do away with harlots, the world will be convulsed with lust” (fathers of the english dominican province 1947: summa theologica, i–ii, question 10, article 11, response). 39. “wherefore laws imposed on men should also be in keeping with their condition, for, as isidore says (etym. v, 21), law should be ‘possible both according to nature, and according to the customs of the country’” (fathers of the english dominican province 1947: summa theologica, i–ii, question 96, article 2, response). 40. “on the other hand the rites of other unbelievers [besides the jews, who are always to be tolerated], which are neither truthful nor profitable are by no means to be tolerated, except perchance in order to avoid an evil, e.g. the scandal or disturbance that might ensue, or some hindrance to the salvation of those who if they were unmolested might gradually be converted to the faith. for this reason the 19 church, at times, has tolerated the rites even of heretics and pagans, when unbelievers were very numerous” (fathers of the english dominican province 1947: summa theologica, i–ii, question 10, article 11, response). 41. aquinas’ conception of the common good and his argument that the state should concern itself with the common good rather than private virtue is echoed, almost precisely by downing and thigpen (1993). 42. “now human law is framed for a number of human beings, the majority of whom are not perfect in virtue. wherefore human laws do not forbid all vices, from which the virtuous abstain, but only the more grievous vices, from which it is possible for the majority to abstain; and chiefly those that are to the hurt of others, without the prohibition of which human society could not be maintained: thus human law prohibits murder, theft and such like” (fathers of the english dominican province 1947: summa theologica, i–ii, question 96, article 2, response). 43. there are similarities too. aquinas was willing to deploy violence against those who posed a threat to the legitimizing bedrock values of the regime, the faith of the community, and the souls of its members. liberal democracies likewise deploy violence against those who threaten its legitimizing bedrock value, the physical security of their citizens. 44. aquinas’ discussion of conscience is strikingly similar to that of amy mccready (1996). both mccready and aquinas argue that to follow conscience is to be truest to our most basic selves and at the same time to focus on a good outside of ourselves. 45. “therefore conscience is not said to oblige us to do something because to follow it is good but because not to follow entails sin. but it does not seem possible that anyone could evade sin if his conscience in whatever way it might err judges something to be the precept of god, whether it be a matter of intrinsic evil or matters of indifference, and decides to the contrary while he still has that conscience. taken as such, he wills not to observe the law of god, and thus sins mortally” (mcinerny 1998, 233: disputed questions on truth, question 17, article 4, response). 46. “conscience only bids because of the force of the divine command or because of the law of nature written within. therefore, to compare the binding force of conscience and that of the command of the prelate is nothing other than to compare the binding force of the divine command with that of the prelate” (mcinerny 1998, 237: disputed questions on truth, question 17, article 5, response). although aquinas has been embraced by the roman catholic church and largely rejected or ignored by the protestant churches, his position on conscience, like his position on the need for faith and divine intervention for union with god, indicates that his thought is not incompatible with protestant thinking. 47. summa contra gentiles, book iii, chapter 12, thomae aquinatis opera omnia http://www.tacalumni.org/aquinas/engine.php?book-005, my translation. 48. our ultimate happiness is contemplation. but the kind of happiness we can attain in this life “consists first and principally in contemplation, but secondarily in the activity of practical intellect ordering human actions and passions, as is said in ethics 10.7” (mcinerny 1998, 516: summa theologiae, i, question 3, article 5, response). “the passions of the soul, in so far as they are contrary to the order of reason, incline us to sin: but in so far as they are controlled 20 by reason, they pertain to virtue” (fathers of the english dominican province 1947: summa theologiae, i–ii, question 24, article 2, response to objection 3). 49. aquinas defines the political virtues as the virtues “whereby a man moderately uses the things of this world and lives among men” (mcinerny 1998, 11: inaugural sermons: the division of sacred scripture). they are the virtues by which “man comports himself rightly in human affairs” (oesterle 1984, 116: summa theologiae, i–ii, question 51, article 5, response). 50. “for the need of the ordering of reason in the passions is seen when we consider the ways in which they may oppose reason, which is twofold. first, by the passions inciting to something contrary to reason, and then the passions need restraining, and temperance is denominated from this. second, by the passions withdrawing us from what reason dictates – for example, the fear of dangers or of hardships – and then man has to be strengthened in regard to what reason requires, so that he will not turn back, and fortitude is denominated from this” (oesterle 1984, 110: summa theologiae, i–ii, question 61, article 3, response).. references botwinick, aryeh. 1997. skepticism, belief and the modern: maimonides to nietzche. ithaca: cornell university press. cornish, paul j. 1998. “marriage, slavery, and natural rights in the political thought of aquinas.” review of politics 60(3): 545–561. downing, lyle a.; and thigpen, robert b. 1993. “virtue and the common good in liberal theory.” journal of politics 55 (november): 1046–1059. fathers of the english dominican province. 1947. summa theologica, benziger brothers edition. http://www.ccel.org/a/aquinas/summa/. finnis, john. 1998. aquinas: moral, political, and legal theory. new york: oxford university press. galston, william. 1988. “liberal virtues.” american political science review 82 (december): 1277–1290. hittinger, john p. 2002. liberty, wisdom and grace: thomism and democratic political theory. new york: lexington. johnson, mark. 1992. “another look at st. thomas and the plurality of the literal sense of scripture.” medieval philosophy and theology 2: 118–42. magee, maria fontana. 1999. “thomistic philosophy page: a thomistic case for tolerance.” http://www.aquinasonline.com/topics/tolernce.html. maritain, jacques. 1971. the rights of man and natural law, trans. doris c. hanson. new york: gordian press. mccready, amy. 1996. “the ethical individual: an historical alternative to contemporary conceptions of the self.” american political science review 90 (march): 90–102. mcinerny, ralph. 1998. thomas aquinas: selected writings, trans. and ed. ralph mcinerny. new york: penguin. oesterle, john. 1984. summa theologiae, st. thomas aquinas: treatise on the virtues, trans. john oesterle. notre dame: university of notre dame press. pegis, anton c. 1945. basic writings of saint thomas aquinas, vol. 1, revised and corrected edition of dominican fathers. new york: random house. 21 rawls, john. 1971. a theory of justice. cambridge: harvard university press. _____. 1985. “justice as fairness: political not metaphysical.” philosophy and public affairs 14 (summer): 223–251. _____. 1996. political liberalism. new york: columbia university press. sigmund, paul. 1988. st. thomas aquinas on politics and ethics, trans. and ed. paul sigmund. new york: w.w. norton. strauss, leo. 1964. the city and man. chicago: university of chicago press. thomae aquinatis opera omnia. http://www.tacalumni.org/aquinas/engine.php? book-005 tierney, brian. 1997. the idea of natural rights: studies on natural rights, natural law, and church law, 1150–1625. atlanta: emory university scholars’ press. _____. 2002. “natural law and natural rights: old problems and recent approaches.” review of politics 64 (3): 389–406. weber, max. 1958. the protestant ethic and the spirit of capitalism, trans. talcott parsons. new york: charles scribners’ sons. ó a tale of two cities: the 1999 philadelphia mayoral election jeffrey kraus wagner college race was the defining issue of the 1999 philadelphia mayoral election. in an overwhelmingly democratic city, the democratic candidate, an african-ameri­ can with two decades of experience in local government, narrowly defeated the white republican candidate with little experience in philadelphia government. examining the results of the primary and general elections, the author finds that the vote was sharply divided along racial lines, even though the candidates in the general election rejrainedfrom racial appeals and ran issue-oriented cam­ paigns. in big city politics, race thus still matters. the philadelphia mayoral election of 1999 represented a crossroads for the "city of brotherly love." for eight years, philadelphia had been led by edward rendell, who had been elected mayor of a city on the verge of financial collapse. during his tenure, rendell stabilized the city's finances, encouraged the rebuilding of philadelphia's "center city" (philadelphia's downtown), and convinced the republicans to hold their 2000 national convention in the new "l'irst union center."l despite these successes, philadelphia in many ways was still a city in decline. the city's popula­ tion had continued to fall and the new prosperity of center city stood in stark contrast to the city's poor neighborhoods, where jobs continued to disappear, the public education system was in crisis, and violent death was still the norm.2 the continued existence of these two phil adelphi as, and rendell's inability to bring new prosperity to them was chronicled by h.c. bissinger (1997).3 perhaps the most telling illustration of rendell's failure was that a major issue during the 1999 campaign was the large number of abandoned cars on streets in the city's neighborhoods.4 philadelphia would not only be electing a new mayor in 1999, but there wa~ abu a :slrull~ possibilily lhallhe cily would again elecl an afri­ can-american mayor. w. wilson goode (1984-1992) had preceded rendell. goode's mayoralty had begun with high hopes, as he had come to office after defeating the controversial frank rizzo. rizzo, who de­ scribed himself as the "toughest cop in america," parlayed his law and order image into two terms as mayor (1972-1980). supported by white ethnics1 rizzo's tactics had been denounced by civil rights advocates who accused him of polarizing the city along raciallines.s many hoped that the election of goode, a well-regarded bureaucrat, would restore the coa­ lition of white liberals, blacks, and white elements of the democratic party 71 that had ended six decades of republican domination of the city with the e1ection in 1951 of joseph p. clark.6 unfortunately, goode's mayoralty never recovered from his ill-fated decision to bomb the headquarters of an allegedly radical group known as move. this action destroyed not just move's building but also 61 neighboring homes in west philadelphia.! the later years of goode's administration were marked by the fiscaj crisis inherited by rendell. while some cities (notably atlanta, detroit, newark, and, washing ton, d.c.) had elected more than one african-american chief executive, philadelphia was one of a number of cities (baltimore, chicago, new york, and los angeles among them) where whites had replaced african­ american mayors. the question remained as to whether the philadel­ phia electorate would be as racially polarized in 1999 as it had been at the time of goode's first election. did race matter to the philadelphia electorate in 1999? to answer this question, the political landscape, the candidates, the primary election, and the general election will be reviewed .. particular attention will be paid to the voting behavior of philadelphians in the general election. philadelphia's political landscape in 1999 philadelphia is one of the nation's most heavily democratic cities. of the 980,768 voters registered in 1999, 75% were democrats and just 19% were republicans.8 in 1998, democrats dominated philadelphia. bill lloyd, the party's unsuccessful u.s. senate candidate, defeated incum­ bent republican senator arlen specter by more than 60,000 votes in the city while losing statewide by almost 800,000 votes. gubernatorial can­ didate ivan itkin did even better, winning the city by more than 75,000 votes. itkin lost the election to incumbent republican governor tom ridge by more than 750,000 votes. democrats swept the three state sen­ ate seats and won 22 of the 27 state representative contests (committee of seventy 1998). bill clinton defeated george bush in philadelphia by 301,000 votes in 1992, and he beat bob dole by 327,000 votes in 1996 (infield 1999). finally, philadelphia had not elected a republican mayor since 1947. all things being equal, it would be a safe bet that philadel­ phians would elect a democrat to succeed ed rendell in 1999. the candidates six democrats sought to become mayor of philadelphia: john f. street marty weinberg, happy fernandez, dwight evans,· queena r. bass, and john white, jr. samuel p. katz, a one-time democrat (he had started in politics in 1976 as campaign manager to philadelphia congressman wil ham h. gray 3rd ) and former member of the board of education, was the sole republican.9 72 three of the six democrats were african-americans: street, the coun­ cil president during rendell's first seven years in office (he had resigned the council presidency at the end of 1998 in order to campaign for mayor); white, the former head of the commonwealth department of welfare and the philadelphia housing authority (during rendell's first term); and evans, a state legislator who had received 22% of the vote in the 1994 democratic gubernatorial primary.lo the presence of three major african-american candidates made victory by a wen-financed white can­ didate, weinberg (the former city solicitor and chairman of the city's democratic committee during the rizzo era), a possibility. in january 1998, a summit of 60 black leaders convened to try to select an african­ american candidate (infield and cusick 1999). as late as two and a half weeks before the primary, leading members of philadelphia's black clergy, the naacp, and other groups were holding meetings with representa­ tives of the candidates in an effort to convince at least one african-ameri­ can candidate to leave the race. the reverend vernal simms, pastor of north philadelphia's morris brown a.m.e. church, said, "1 think the reality in philadelphia is we cannot win with three black candidates" (infield and cusick 1999). simms' analysis seemed credible in a primary where it was estimated that african-american voters would account for between 49 and 54 percent of the turnuut (davieb 1999).11 the philudel­ phia tribune, the city's leading african-american newspaper, published an editorial urging dwight evans to withdraw (smith 1999). the other serious candidate was happy fernandez, a temple univer­ sity professor and former city council member who was founder and leader of the parents union for public schools and the children's coali­ tion of greater philadelphia during the 1970s. she was the first woman to launch a major campaign for the office. despite the concerns of the city's african-american leadership, the three black candidates remained in the contest and one of them, john street, prevailed. about 297,000 of the city's democrats voted in the primary; a turnout of about 40%. eight years earlier, when rendell was nominated, turnout in the democratic primary was 45.5% (goldwyn 1999). weinberg, the white candidate (who had raised $5.3 million, more than any of his opponents) aired a number of negative radio and televi­ sion advertisements that targeted street, the acknowledged frontrunner in the democratic field (he had been endorsed by rendell). one series of ads focused on street's past financial problems. these problems included having filed twice for bankruptcy protection and having tax liens filed against him on four separate occasions by the internal revenue service.12 another ad featured video of street shoving a television reporter onto his back, an incident that had taken place in philadelphia's city hall in 73 table 1 1999 philadelphia democratic mayoral primary candidates votes percent* john f. street 107,285 36.0 marty weinberg 91,457 31.0 john white, jr. 64,657 22.0 happy fernandez 18,200 6.0 dwight evans 13,711 5.0 queena r. bass 1,802 1.0 *does not add up to 100% due to rounding. source: city commissioners, ninety-fourth annual report of the city commissioners to the people of philadelphia, 1999 (phila­ delphia: city of philadelphia, 2000), p. 25. 1981. the tone of the ads contributed to the philadelphia inquirer's assess­ ment of weinberg: he's a nice man with many friends, but he doesn't belong on this stage. his candidacy is a concoction of big money, veiled power brokers, glitzy sound bites and divisive tactics. that it has worked well enough. to place him second in many polls is troubling (philadelphia inquirer 1999), as infield and burton (1999) concluded: weinberg never shook off the rap of being the "white guy can­ didate," who got into the race after former city controller tho­ mas leonard decided not to run. in fact, weinberg drew criti­ cism early in the campaign for making more appearances in white areas than black areas. the label was reinforced when one of his backers, richard costello, president of the fraternal order of polic~, mad~ an intemperate remark about local naacp presi­ dent j. whyatt mondesire and another african-american leader, 'lawyer charles bowser. weinberg's direct mail also appeared to be divisive. one mailing urged voters to "protect your family" by opposing street, who was accused of being "soft on crime." a second mailing was a letter signed by the late frank rizzo's brother, joe. while the letter did not mention street by name, it did state that when weinberg worked for frank rizzo, he pro­ tected "people like us" (bunch 1999a). 74 the prim£1ry turn(-·d out to he £1 "tale of two citips" with wpinbere doing well in the white neighborhoods of south philadelphia, the "river wards" adjacent to the schuykill river, roxborough, and the northeast. according to the committee of seventy, street received 57% of the vote in the 23 wards that were overwhelmingly african-american. weinberg received 2.4% of the vote in these wards. in the 21 predominantly white wards, weinberg polled 72% of the vote, while street received 8.8% (com­ mittee of seventy 1999a). the presence of a second white candidate, fernandez, assured weinberg's defeat. her presence in the race siphoned enough votes from weinberg to allow street to win the primary despite the presence of two other major african-american candidates. the general election campaign the general election became q contest between katz, the white re publican, and street, the african-american candidate. it should be em­ phasized that neither candidate ran a racially polarizing campaign. white, street's principal african-american rival, endorsed and actively cam­ paigned on katz's behalf in the general election. white endorsed katz even though he had been the target of television spots aired by the re­ publican during the primary that were critical of white's management skills. the ads questioned white's stewardship of the housing author­ ity and the state public welfare department. "when he tells you what he managed," the commercial said, ii ask him how he managed" (panaritis and yant 1999).13 while white endorsed katz, weinberg backed street. both candidates ran issue-oriented campaigns, and they differed sharply on school vouchers and the local wage tax. katz proposed the introduction of school vouchers as one of several measures to improve the public school system. street opposed vouchers, contending that katz's support for them proved that he was a radical republican, not the mod­ erate that he claimed to be. katz also called for a reduction in the phila­ delphia wage tax, which street and mayor rendell argued would hobble the city's ability to provide services. they also agreed on many issues. each claimed to be the rightful heir to the popular rendell. 14 both re­ leased plans to fight gun violence. both agreed to retain john timoney as police commissioner. while street' 5 campaign message emphasized his party affiliation, the katz campaign rarely mentioned the republican party, basing the cam­ paign on his personal appeal to the voters rather than a party appeal. as state representative george kenney (a republican) explained, "the na­ tional gop agenda certainly doesn't play in the city ... we're so outnum­ bered by democrats that sam needs a quiet election to win. just run a local race and get out the vote" (baer 1999). 75 their campaign strategies were similar to those pursued in new york city ten years earlier. in 1989, manhattan borough president david dinkins (the african-american who had defeated incumbent mayor edward 1. koch in the democratic primary) emphasized his party, whereas rudolph giuliani downplayed the fact that he was a republi­ can (mcnickle 1993, 293-314). yet, like philadelphia a decade later, race had an impact on this contest as well (carsey 1995). while the candidates did not overtly play the "race card," it appears that race was the unspoken issue of the campaign. a keystone poll, con­ ducted october 22-24, 1999 concluded that "candidate support is best predicted by race, even when party affiliation is taken into account" (cen­ ter for opinion research 1999). table 2 1999 philadelphia mayoral election candidates party votes percent john f. street democrat 222,823 50.7 samuel katz republican 213,376 48.6 john p. mcdermott constitutional 2,964 0.7 source: city commissioners, ninety-fourth annual report of the city commissioners to the people of philadelphia, 1999 (phila­ delphia: city of philadelphia, 2000), p. 6. the outcome while street won, his narrow victory highlighted the city's racial di­ visions. katz ran well in northeast philadelphia and south philadel­ phia, carrying 28 of the 33 wards in philadelphia where whites outnum­ bered african-americans. in 27 of the 28 wards carried by katz, there were mure regbtereu delnulrat~ than republil.:alls. in :solne of the warus carried by katz, the democratic to republican ratio was four-to-one. street prevailed in all 33 wards where african-americans outnumbered whites. the keystone poll predicted this outcome, observing, "the great­ est problem for john street is that nearly three in five white voters who are registered as democrats say they will support katz" (center for opin­ ion research 1999). katz was also helped by the higher turnout among white voters in the general election. according to the city commissioners, turnout was 50.2% of the almost 345,000 registered white voters, while turnout was 76 47.2% of the 299,000 bjack voters registered in philadelphia (city com­ missioners of philadelphia 2000,9). although ·white turnout was higher than black turnout, it was still not large enough to provide katz a margin of victory. as larry ceisler, a democratic political consultant, explained, "lhere wasn't enough turnout in the northeast, and street got enough of the democratic vote" (bunch 1999c). street swept philadelphia's predominantly black neighborhoods, poll­ ing more than 90% of the vote in north and west philadelphia. overall, street took about 94% of the black vote (macklin 1999). street's narrow victory was due to his ability to attract the votes of latinos while holding some white democrats who responded to partisan appeals made on street's behalf. white neighborhoods with liberal reputations, such as mount airy and chestnut hull, provided street with about 30% of their votes. philadelphia was one of three cities (columbus, ohio and indianapo­ lis, indiana being the other two) targeted by the democratic national colllmittee (dnc).15 a number of well-known democrats came to phi1a­ delphia to campaign for street, including president bill clinton.16 more than 5,000 party and union workers staffed street's get out the vote op­ eration/ and the dnc spent almost $1 million on election day field op­ erations.17 in contrast, katz could not rely on such an organization/ as republican leaders conceded that there was little or no party presence in as many as 700 of the city's 1,700 election districts (bunch 1999b). according to the committee of seventy, street won 15.5% of the vote in the city's 21 overwhelmingly white wards, "better than some expected" (committee of seventy 1999b). even with white's endorsement katz was unable to make any inroads into the african-american community. katz failed to receive 10% of the vote in 19 of the 66 wards. in on1y one of 66 wards did street not poll 10% of the vote. conclusion the philadelphia mayoral election was the most expensive municipal election (up to that time) in american history, as the candidates in the primary and general election raised and spent more than $25 million (bunch 1999c). it was a race where the major candidates in the gencml election ran issues-oriented campaigns. yet the philadelphia mayoral election of 1999 demonstrates that race still matters in american urban politics. generally, the first mayoral election in a city featuring a contest be­ tween an african-american and white candidate is racially divisive (mcnickle 1993; sonenshein 1993; browning, marshall, and tabb 1997). as tom bradley was able to demonstrate in los angeles, african-ameri­ can mayors can attract greater proportions of white support in subse77 quent elections (judd and swanstrom 1998, 393-395). [s in philadelphia, the question was whether a second african-american, after a perjod of time during which a white had served as mayor, would face a less ra­ cially polarized electorate than the first african-american mayor. the democratic primary, with a number of black and white candi­ dates, was contested on the terrain of racial politics. african-american leaders attempted to present a "united front" 50 that a white candidate would not be able to capitalize on a fragmented black vote. ed rendell had been the beneficiary of such a split in 1991, and many in the african­ american community were anxious to avoid a repeat in 1999. the three major african-american candidates refused to yield, however, making such an outcome likely. while african-american leaders were trying to mobilize black voters behind one mayoral candidate, the leading white contender offered a message designed to appeal to philadelphia's still substantial white elec­ torate. weinberg's well-funded candidacy appealed to the same white ethnic voters who had supported his mentor, frank rizzo, two decades earlier. it is interesting to note that two of the african-american candidates, street and white, attempted (with limited success) to recreate the bi-ra­ cial coalition that had carried wilson goode into office in 1983. not­ withstanding their efforts, the primary results revealed a city divided in two by broad street, philadelphia' 5 major north-south thoroughfare. weinberg carried the overwhelmingly white wards that lie east of broad street; street won the black wards west of broad street. the general election yielded similar results. despite the absence of explicit racial appeals by the candidates, the electorate was sharply divided by race. even when race is not a prominent campaign issue, it often will be the decisive factor in voter choice. black voters may have been motivated to support street because they thought the city' 5 media was treating him unfairly (the philadelphia in­ quirer and the philadelphia daily news both endorsed katz) . temple uni­ versity professor thad mathis observed that: people have been berated with this idea that they should stop thinking about race, but when there's an african american can­ didate who has impeccable qualifications, who has 19 years of . experience, the major media in the city endorses a white guy .... that just has a bad odor for a lot of people. and so even voters who didn't start with that impression started thinking about it. and that energized people who might not have been enthusiastic about street (macklin 1999). the lesson of philadelphia is that bi-racial coalitions are difficult to fashion in a racially polarized electorate. even the best-intentioned 78 candidates and campaigns cannot escape the divisive force of race. while street was the second african-american to seek the mayoralty, he faced an electoral environment similar to that which confronted goode 16 years earlier. in goode's case, the campaign had been explicitly racial, as he faced a white opponent who made race the paramount issue. in 1999, both street and katz refrained from explicitly racial appeals, yet the out­ come mirrored goode's first race. it is clear that, in cities like philadel­ phia, race still matters. notes 1. among the other developments in center city were the opening of the pennsylvania convention center; a marriott hotel; the avenue of the arts, home to many of the city's performing arts and cultural institutions; and new upscale retailers, including banana republic, disney, and tiffany's. 2. according to the u.s. census bureau (2001,37), philadelphia's population declined by 4.3% between 1990 and 2000 to 1,517,550. in 1950, the population peaked at 2,071,605. philadelphia's population continues to decline. the cen­ sus bureau estimates that the population of philadelphia on july i, 2001 was 1,491,812 (ginsberg and dilanian 2002). 3. buzz bissinger, a former reporter for the philadelphia inquirer, was given significant access to mayor rendell during his first term in office. a prayer for the city (new york: random house, 1997) was the product of that access. a critical view of rendell's second term is offered by fred siegel and kay s. hymowitz, "why did ed rendell fizzle out?" city jouma19 (autumn 1999). 4. both democratic candidate john street and his republican opponent, sam katz, released plans for removing abandoned cars from the streets. 5. prior to becoming mayor, rizzo was police commissioner from 1967 to 1971. for more on rizzo, see joseph r. daughen and peter binzen, the cov who would be king: mayor frank rizzo (boston: little brown, 1977); fred j. hamilton, rizzo (new york: viking press, 1973); and s.a. paolantonio, frank rizzo: the last big man in big city america (philadelphia: camino books, 1993). 6. the last republican to be elected mayor of philadelphia was barney samuel in 1947. for more on the bi-racial coalition that supported goode, see richard a. keiser, lithe rise of a biracial coalition in philadelphia," in rufus p. browning, dale rogers marshall, and david h. tabb, eds., racial politics in american cities (new york: longman, 1997). 7. for more on the bombing of the move headquarters by the philadelphia police and fire departments, see philadelphia special investigation commis­ sion, the findings, conclusions and recommendations of the philadelphia special in­ vestigation commission, philadelphia, 1986; john anderson and hilary hevenor, burning down the house: move and the tragedy of philadelphia (new york: norton, 1987); hizkias assefa, the move crisis in philadelphia: extremist groups and con­ flict resolution (pittsburgh: university of pittsburgh press, 1990); charles w. bowser, let the bunker burn: the final battle with move (philadelphia: camino books, 1989); michael boyette with randi boyette, "let if bum!" the philadelphia tragedy (chicago: contemporary books, 1989); margot harry, attention, move! thi5 i5 amcrica! (chiccl.170; danner press, 1987); and robin erica wagner-pacifici, 79 discourse and destruction: the city of philadelphia versus move (chicago: univer­ sity at chicago fress, 1 slsl4. 8. except where noted, all voter registration data and election results cited herein are from the city commissioners of philadelphiaj nillety-fourth annual report of tile city commissioners to the feople of fi11iadelpilla, city at philadelphia, january 2000. 9. another republican, former state boxing commissioner george bochetto, had aired television commercials during the summer of 1997 in an effort to es­ tablish himself as a serious contender for the republican nomination to succeed rendell. bochetto dropped out of the race in october 1998, leaving the field open for katz. 10. white became executive director of the philadelphia housing authority (pha) at the time when mayor rendell installed himself as the pha chairman. this look place afler lile u.s. depcutmeut uf huusing and urban development (hud) ended its one-year takeover of the pha. for more on the pha j see bissinger (1997, 244-249). 11. whites were estimated to account for between 40% and 45"/0 uf lhe demu­ cratic party primary turnout; with the majority of the remainder hispanic. 12. declaring one's race is now optional on voter registration forms in penn­ sylvania. therefore, official registration data can no longer be regarded as en­ tirely accurate with regard to breakdown of voters by race. 13. although weinberg endorsed street, many of his major donors crossed over to katz. one of the first wug j uck wolgin, il developer. wolgin had donated $70,000 to weinberg. on june 1, 1999, wolgin gave $100,000 to the katz cam­ paign (warner 1999). many of weinberg's voters did not join him in moving to street. according to pennsylvania's keystone poll, 83% of the respondents who had voted for weinberg in the democratic primary intended to vote for katz in the general election. street faced similar problems with the supporters of at least two other primary opponents. fernandez' voters supported katz over street, 69% to 15%. white's supporters also indicated a preference (albeit less conclu­ sive) for katz, supporting him over street, 37% to 24% (center for opinion re­ search 1999). happy fernandez also endorsed katz. after the primary;. she had become president of the moore college of art and design, a women's college located in philadelphia. 14. rendell endorsed street donated more than $100,000 to the street cam­ paign, and taped television commercials for street. katz, the ex-democrat who helped rendell develop his financial recovery plan for the city, cited the number of prominent rendell supporters who were backing his candidacy. katz's media consultant was neil oxman, who had been the architect of rendell's 1991 and 1995 campaigns. his campaign director was another democrat, bob barnett . . 15. exhibiting a new interest in electing democratic mayors (probably the result of republicans having been elected mayor in new york city and los an­ geles, the two largest, and usually reliable democratic, american cities), the dnc created a national democratic mayors campaign committee. the dnc ini­ tially set aside $250,000 for this initiative. the effort also paid off in indianapolis, where a democrat (bart peterson) was elected for the first time in over 30 years. 16. other democrats who came to philadelphia to campaign with street were dnc chair joe andrews, massachusetts senator edward kennedy, and detroit 80 mayor dennis archer. in addition, many voters received pre-recorded phone messages from either president clinton or first lady hillary clinton. 17. the afl-cio philadelphia council, which had remained neutral in the primary, endorsed and actively campaigned for street in the general election. the city's buildings trades unions declared election day a holiday, giving their members the opportunity to work and vote for street. 18 there is also the counter-example of david dinkins whose white support declined when he sought re-election in 1993. his loss of white support was ac­ companied by a decline in turnout among black voters, allowing giuliani to de­ feat him in a re-match of their 1989 race. for more on the 1993 new york city mayoral election, see lorraine c. minnite, david k. park, and daniel m. slotweiner, "white, black and latino voter turnout in the 1993 new york city mayoral election: a comparison of ecological regression techniques and exit poll data," a paper presented at the annual meeting of the american political science association, boston, september 4, 1998. references baer, john m. 1999. "ridge won't stump here." phl£adelpfna inqulrer, october 1:2.,~. bissinger, buzz. 1997. a prayer for the city. new york: random house. browning, rufus p., dale rogers marshall, and david h. tabb. 1997. "minority mobilization in ten cities: failures and successes." in racial politics in ameri­ can cities, eds. rufus p. browning, dale rogers marshall, and david h. tabb. new york: longman. bunch, william. 1999a. "dem turnout lighter." philadelphia daily news, may 15, 3. __ . 1999b. "behind gop scene." philadelphia daily news, october 12, 8, __ . 1999c. "street by whisker edges katz in closest race." philadelphia daily news, november 3, 3. carsey, thomas m. 1995. "the contextual effects of race on white voter be­ havior: the 1989 new york city mayoral election." journal afpolitics 57: 221228. center for opinion research. 1999. "philadelphia mayoral poll #2 (the key­ stone poll), october 22-24, 1999." millersville: millersville university. city commissioners of philadelphia. 2000. ninety-fourth annual report of the city commissioners to the people of philadelphia. city of philadelphia, january 2000. cnmmlttpp ofspvpnty. 1998 ell'ctio11 cnlendnr. __ ' 1999a. newsletter (may). __ . 1999b. newsletter (november). davies, dave. 1999. ii a racial que~ti()n." philadelphia tnquir£'r, may 17, a7. ginsberg, thomas, and ken dilanian. 2002. "city population plummets-sort of." philadelphia inquirer, april 30, b1. goldwyn, ron, 1999. "dem turnout lighter." philadelphia daily news, may 20, 16. infield, tom. 1999. "clinton to visit philadelphia to back street for mayor." philadelphia inquirer, october 7, b1. and cynthia burton. 1999. "blacks flocked to street." philadelphia in­ quirer, may 20, ai. 81 ~ and frederick cusick. 1999. "black leaders look to narrow field of candidates./i philadelphia inquirer, april 30, bl. judd, dennis r., and todd swanstrom. 1998. city politics. new york longman. macklin, william r. 1999. lithe choice, in black and white it struck black vot­ ers that an experienced street would be in a dead heat with a less-experi­ enced katz. they saw it as unfair. did they vote to right a wrong?/i phila­ delphia inquirer, november 7, d1. mcnickle, chris. 1993. to be mayor of new york: ethnic politics in the city. new york: columbia university press. panaritis, maria, and monica yant. 1999. "mayoral sniping intensifies./i phila­ delphia inquirer, may 12, b15. philadelphia inquirer. 1999. "john street for mayor./i philadelphia inquirer, may 11, aio. smith, elmer. 1999. "voting patterns proved them wrong./i philadelphia inquirer, may 20, a1. sonenshein, raphael j. 1993. politics in black and white: race and power in los an~eles. princeton: princeton university press. u.s. census bureau. 2001. statistical abstract of the united states. washington, dc: u.s. government printing office. warner, bob. 1999. "weinberg donor gives katz 100g./i philadelphitl news june 9,10. 82 ó commonwealth a journal of political science 2003 volume 12 issn 0890-2410 commonwealth: a journal of political science editor: gerard j. fitzpatrick, ursinus college associate editors: thomas j. baldino, wilkes university donald g. tannenbaum, gettysburg college .managing editor: harold cox, wilkes university editorial review board aryeh botwinick temple university m. margaret conway university of florida roger h. davidson univprsity of maryland jean b. elshtain university of chicago richard f. fenno university of rochester marianne githens goucher college susan w. hammond american university -samuel krislov university of miimesota g. calvin mackenzie colby college michael j. malbin state university of ny, albany harvey c. mansfield, jr. harvard university kenneth f. mott gettysburg college craig n. murphy wellesley college steven a. peterson pennsylvania state university mark p. petracca university of california, irvine h. mark roelofs new york university bruce m. russett yale university j. david singer university of michigan contents volume 12 2003 isbn 0890-2410 idealism, realism, and the categorical imperative in kant's perpetual peace gordon p. henderson 1 the five-year effect of nafta on pennsylvania: an analysis of export data paul g. kengor and r. c. phinney 27 state influence in the presidential selection process: assessing pennsylvania's non-participation in the frontloading trend james e. vike 51 disappearing democrats: rethinking partisanship within pennsylvania's electorate berwood yost 77 special feature looking back on the legislative modernization movement in pennsyl­ vania: remarks of herbert fineman, former speaker of the pennsyl­ vania house of representatives introduction and commentary by michael cassidy 87 about the authors michael cassidy has over 25 years of service with the pa house of rep­ resentatives, two of them as a representative from blair county in 197778. he received n b.a. in political science from pennsylvania slale uni­ versity and is currently enrolled in the graduate program in american studies at penn state-harrisburg. his research interests include the de­ velopment of american legislatures and pennsylvania politics. he has moderated the "pennsylvania politics roundtable" at the pennsylvania political science association annual meetings since 1997. gordon p. henderson, ph.d., is an associate professor of government and politics at widener university. he received his doctoral degree from purdue university. his teaching and research focus on the theory and practice of constitutional democracy. paul g. kengor, ph.d., is an associate professor of political science at grove city college. he received his master's degree in international affairs from thp school of international service at american university and his doctorate in public and international affairs from the university of pittsburgh's graduate school of public and international affairs. his research interests include the presidency and foreign policy. his forth­ coming book, god and ronald reagan, will be published in 2004 by harpercollins. r. c. phinney is a policy analyst at the shenango institute for public policy, a think-tank focused on local and state policy issues located in western pennsylvania. his articles on the north american free trade act (nafta) have appeared in several pennsylvania publications, in­ cluding the pittsburgh post-gazette and the harrisburg patriot-news. james e. vike, ph.d., is an assistant professor of government and poli­ tics and director of the master of public administration program at wid­ ener university. he received his doctoral degree from the maxwell school of ci~zenship and public affairs at syracuse university. his research interests include thp prpsinpnry and bureaucratic politics_ berwood yost is the director of the center for opinion research of the floyd institute for public policy at franklin and marshall ('01 1 pe/'he received his master's degree in political science from temple university and is currently a ph.d. candidate there. his recent research has focused on crime victimization and victim services, smoking and health, and public attitudes toward politics and political campaigns. acknowledgments commonwealth is published annually under the authorization of the pennsylvania political science association (ppsa) and sent to all members individual, departmental, and institutional. for subscription rates for all categories of membership, see separate announcements elsewhere in this issue. changes of address should be sent to: dr. w. wesley mcdonald, department of political science, elizabethtown college, elizabethtown, pa 17022. e-mail: <mcdonaldw@etown.edu> postmaster: send notification of undelivered journals to this address. second class postage paid at harrisburg, pa ;:mn ;:it ;:inditionrll mailing offices. copyright ?oo? by the pennsylvania political science association: issn 0890-2410. commonwealth will print free of charge camera-ready official announcements of up to one page of the american political science association, as well as northeastern political science association and its constituent members, and other organizations whose journals provide corresponding privileges to ppsa. contact the managing editor. advertising, reprint information, and rates are also available from the treasurer of the ppsa, dr. thomas brogan, department of political science, albright college, p. o. box 15234, reading, fa 19612-5234 the pennsylvania political science association officers president joseph melusky (acting president) st. francis university first vice president joseph melusky st. francis university second vice president thomas j. baldino wilkes university treasurer thomas brogran albright college secretary w. wesley mcdonald elizabethtown college executive council 2003-2006 francis moran new jersey city university mary jane kuffner hirt indiana university of pennsylvania 2002-2005 bridget jeffrey edinboro university stanley berard lock haven university 2001-2004 michael cassidy pennsylvania house of representatives jean wahl harris university of scranton ex officio members past president craig m. wheeland villanova university commonwealth managing editor harold cox wilkes university commonwealth editor gerard j. fitzpatrick ursinus college commonwealth associate editors thomas j. baldino wilkes university donald g. tannenbaum gettysburg college in the commonwealth gerard j. fitzpatrick, editor it seems fitting that four of the five articles in this volume of the penn­ sylvania political science association's professional journal concern poli­ tics in pennsylvania. moreover, these pennsylvania focused pieces speak to a variety of political science subfields, including political economy, presi­ dential elections, voting behavior, and state government. providing some topical balance while further extending the fields of interest addressed in this issue of commonwealth, the one non-pennsylvania essay involves international relations and political theory. in short, ours may be a small journal but it consistently covers much academic territory. in our lead article, dr. gordon p. henderson underscores the connec­ tions between political philosophy and international politics by explor­ ing the thought of immanuel kant with regard to the place of morality in foreign affairs. he not only illuminates the theoretical tension between the moral and the political on the world stage, but he also brings these abstract ideas to bear on the contemporary debate between "realists" and "idealists" in foreign affairs. kant's teachings, dr. henderson con­ cludes, support a cautious optimism with regard to the prospects for peace among nations. among the most contentious topics in recent years has been the north american free trade agreement (nafta). dr. paul g. kengor and r. c. phinney examine the impact of nafta on pennsylvania. they find that despite the claim of critics that the treaty would harm the state's economy by causing an exodus of manufacturing jobs to foreign nations, nafta has in fact helped pennsylvania by significantly increasing its overseas exports. while their findings do not resolve the debate over job losses or other controversial aspects of nafta, they indicate that there is more to the free trade debate than meets the eve . .i one of the most significant df'velopments in prf'sidential elec­ toral politics has been the recent trend toward "frontloading," the pro­ cess whereby states schedule their presidential primaries increasingly early in hope of having more influence in determining the party nomi­ nees. through a comparison of pennsylvania and ohio in the presiden­ tial nominating process, dr. james e. vike explains why our state has eschewed the frontloading trend, even though scheduling presidential primaries earlier would likely increase candidate competitiveness, cam­ paign activity, voter choice, and voter turnout. berwood yost explains why republicans control most statewide of­ fices in pennsylvarua, as well as both houses of the state legislature, even though democrats have a decided edge in voter registration. using a random survey of pennsylvania voters to probe the difference between party orientation and party registration, he finds that more democrats in pennsylvania identify with the republican party than vice versa, indi­ cating that party identification is a better predictor of voting behavior than is party registration. he also identifies some intriguing geographic patterns in the distribution of these "misaligned voters." this issue of commonwealth closes with a special feature: the address of former pennsylvania house speaker herbert fineman to the 2003 meeting of the pennsylvania political science association, with com­ mentary by michael cassidy. few people know our state legislature as well as mr. cassidy does, for he has worked there for a quarter of a cen­ tury as a member, staff assistant, and scholar. in his commentary, he traces the crucial role speaker fineman played in bringing about institu­ tional reform in pennsylvania, and he places reform developments in the state within the context of the larger legislative modernization movement. as always, this issue of commonwealth would not have been possible without quality submissions and quality reviews. i therefore ex­ tend my deepest thanks to the authors and anonymous referees with whom i have worked during the past year. by contributing their time and talent, they have helped to make ours an ever better professional journal. un­ fortunately, we continue to receive only a small number of manuscripts, most of which are rejected. if issues of commonwealth as strong as this one are to be produced in a timely manner, readers must submit their work for consideration and urge their colleagues to do so too. microsoft word volume 14.doc commonwealth: a journal of political science  volume 14, number 1  december 2008 special policy issue on public health  2008 ppsa/lorl, pa house of reps. issn 0890-2410 public health in pennsylvania: where do we go from here? margaret a. potter, jd, ms university of pittsburgh graduate school of public health what is public health and why does it matter? “health care” and “public health” are different kinds of activities. health care is about the relief and cure of illnesses and support for disabilities. public health is about health protection: preventing illnesses and promoting vigor and longevity. health care involves diagnosis and treatment services for individual patients. public health involves assessment of population-wide health trends (including screenings and preventive care for individuals), development of policies and programs to optimize healthy conditions, and assurance of access to basic services (institute of medicine 1988 and 2003). health care is largely a privatesector enterprise, with its organization and financing carried out by nonprofits and businesses through physicians’ offices and clinics, hospitals, pharmacies, rehabilitation centers, and nursing facilities. public health, though sharing some part with the private sector, depends primarily on public oversight and accountability – roles that must be grounded in the police powers of sovereign states (institute of medicine 1988; gostin 2000). pennsylvania is health-care rich and public-health poor. pennsylvania has 3.23 hospital beds for every 1,000 residents, well above the national average of 2.75 beds per 1,000, and well above the number in other populous states such as california (2.00 per 1,000), texas (2.58 per 1,000), and florida (2.87 per 1,000) (federal reserve bank of minneapolis 2004). pennsylvania also ranks high in the number of physicians per capita with 0.332 per 100 residents, and ranking in the top 10 states along with washington, dc, massachusetts, new york, and maryland (statemaster.com 2008). pennsylvania spends annually more per capita on health care than all but six other u.s. states (statemaster.com 2008). but this commonwealth ranks last among states 2 public health in pennsylvania: where do we go from here? in the number of public health workers per capita: 37 per 100,000 compared to a national average of 158 per 100,000 (gebbie et al. 2000). only six of pennsylvania’s 67 counties (allegheny, bucks, chester, erie, montgomery, and philadelphia) and an additional four cities (allentown, bethlehem, wilkes-barre, and york) have full-service local health departments. that leaves about half of the state’s population dependent upon the state’s department of health, which employs fewer than onethird of the state’s public health workforce. these statistics lead to some difficult questions. does the commonwealth’s de-emphasis on health protection depress the real quality of life for citizens? if so, how much would greater health protection cost, and who would pay for it? if health protection depends on vigorous oversight and accountability, how should government and the private-sector share those duties? what defines a well-functioning public health system? a public health system is "the organizations and individuals who collectively share the benefits, burdens, and responsibilities for the health of a defined population or community" (halverson 2002). it includes many entities besides state and local public health agencies, such as health care providers, community-based organizations, emergency management, and schools – to name just a few. health protection depends on the strengths of these entities acting in coordination. the quality and effectiveness of a public health system depend on its laws (gostin 2000) as well as its financing and organizational structures (mays et al. 2006). if the laws are unclear, the financing inadequate, and the organizations fragmented, then threats to health are likely to be unchecked. local-level agencies are the public health system’s hub because they can plan for the characteristic needs of local populations, prioritize resource allocation, and maintain accountability to local authorities (national association of county and city health officials 2007). effective planning among human service and public safety organizations depends upon local specificity. private rights and interests, which may be affected by population-level interventions, are best protected by local controls. for example, when quarantines are needed to quench an margaret a. potter 3 influenza pandemic, locally knowledgeable officials determine the most effective and least intrusive methods. without governance and cohesion at the county and municipal levels, public health activities may be uninformed and resources may be misdirected. local financing is also critical: a recent national study revealed that a relatively high proportion of local financing in a local health agency’s budget correlated with high performance in rendering essential public health services (mays et al. 2006). nevertheless, local governments cannot alone sustain the legal, economic, and organizational burden of public health systems. state laws delegate the necessary legal authority, even if local codes and official discretion determine how the laws are implemented. except for the largest metropolitan areas nationally, local tax bases and local health and human service organizations cannot alone sustain the high levels of professional expertise and technical facilities that determine effectiveness in health protection services. thus, intergovernmental cooperation, as well as partnerships with private-sector organizations, is critical to well-functioning public health systems. how well does the commonwealth’s public health system perform? based on this public health symposium issue of commonwealth, it is fair to say that pennsylvania’s current public health system performs inadequately. the system itself is legally ambiguous, comparatively under funded, and organizationally fragmented. county governments resist making long-term financial and organizational commitments to public health activities, despite the availability of state per-capita matching grants intended to incentivize such local investment. public health agencies in pennsylvania exist at multiple levels of government (state, county, and municipal); and their respective sources of authority are distributed without coordinated oversight and accountability among numerous agencies (health, welfare, agriculture, insurance, environmental protection, and labor and industry). in part i of this symposium, three papers address some of the critical issues in the pennsylvania public health system. in a paper titled “public health shortage areas in pennsylvania: a barrier to health information,” dr. alberto cardelle and ms. deidre holland compare the 4 public health in pennsylvania: where do we go from here? ease and accuracy of accessing basic public health information in counties and municipalities without local health departments with that in counties and municipalities served by a local health department. their results show that in locales without local health departments, callers found it more difficult to access health information, were transferred to non-public health entities, and did not speak to a health professional early in the inquiry. common pleas judge john a. bozza writes in “crisis in the making: what’s wrong with pennsylvania public health law?” that the system is not only straining to meet everyday health-protection needs but is particularly vulnerable to failure during emergencies and disasters. he warns that “unless key aspects of pennsylvania law are clarified and/or modified, we risk far from adequate performance from public officials responsible for the public’s health.” dr. mariana chilton and co-authors chyatte and gracely describe an evident failure of coordination among human services within the overall public health system in their article, “evidence that young children are falling through the safety net: policy implications of hunger and poor health in pennsylvania.” this manuscript highlights the disproportionate impact of food insecurity on the health and well-being of children of color in philadelphia. it offers policy recommendations to decrease the racial-ethnic divide that exists among philadelphia’s children and protect the right to healthy development for all. part ii of the symposium includes two papers describing barriers to building health protection capacity in pennsylvania’s 61 counties that lack a comprehensive public health agency. in “objecting to public health – stories from four pennsylvania counties,” professors dennis gallagher and jennifer kolker report on their recent feasibility studies for establishing countywide health departments in lancaster, york, dauphin, and berks counties. this article presents findings about how local conditions affect the perceptions of both public health needs and the opportunities for enhancing county-based and countywide programs. their stories help make the case for why public health is best understood within a very local context. in the second of his symposium articles, “financial analysis and structural considerations to the problem of rural public health in pennsylvania,” dr. cardelle describes his study of 10 rural counties and margaret a. potter 5 the potential cost of establishing countywide local health departments. this analysis shows that population, geographic area, and the availability of primary care services all drive expenses. he also describes the specific challenges of establishing and maintaining health departments in rural areas and offers policy recommendations to help overcome these barriers. in the symposium part iii, authors describe several innovations to consider for public health in pennsylvania. in “a health promoting hospital: a strategy in the re-design of the u.s. health care system,” dr. matthew masiello describes a unique pennsylvania hospital system that took on certain public health responsibilities as a health promoting hospital within the world health organization’s international network. he explains the potential benefits of a health promoting hospital initiative within the united states and the use of the world health organization’s model program. dr. bernard goldstein writes, in “credentialing of the public health work force,” about a new approach to ensuring a highly competent public health work force capable of responding to the public health challenges facing our state and our nation. this article discusses the rationales behind the newly developed proficiency examination leading to a professional credential for public health workers. dr. judith lave and i advance an idea for strengthening the public health system by building upon an existing health care resource. our article, “pennsylvania medical assistance: connections within the commonwealth’s public health system,” describes how that program contributes to the public heath system by assuring access to personal health care services, evaluating the accessibility and quality of personal health services, monitoring health status, and developing policies that support individual health efforts. the article suggests some ways that medical assistance could be better connected to the overall public health system. where do we go from here? these symposium articles present neither a comprehensive assessment of public health system issues nor a complete set of viable recommendations for confronting those issues. rather, the symposium offers insights and ideas for the future of public health in pennsylvania. 6 public health in pennsylvania: where do we go from here? this publication in commonwealth coincides with a time of forwardthinking for public health in pennsylvania. as mandated by senate resolution 194 (pennsylvania senate 2007), the joint state government commission is undertaking a review of the state’s public health laws. the commission’s work will be guided by an advisory committee, several of whose members contributed or reviewed the articles appearing in this issue. the review and its recommendations can address longstanding problems with the legal, financial, and organizational aspects of the pennsylvania public health system. references federal reserve bank of minneapolis. 2004. “hospital beds per 1,000 persons, 2004.” fedgazette. http://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/data/specmap/us07-01.cfm (accessed november 30, 2008). gebbie, k. (principal investigator). 2000. “public health workforce enumeration 2000.” u.s. health resources and services administration, bureau of health professions, national center for health workforce information and analysis. gostin, l.o. 2000. public health law. power, duty, restraint. university of california press and milbank memorial fund: berkeley, ca. halverson, p.k. “embracing the strength of the public health system: why strong government public health agencies are vitally necessary but insufficient.” journal of public health management and practice 2002, 8(1): 98-100, at p. 98. institute of medicine. 1988. the future of public health. national academies press: washington, dc. institute of medicine. 2003. the future of the public's health in the 21st century. national academies press: washington, dc. mays g.p., m.c. mchugh, k. shjim, n. perry, d. lenaway, p.k. halverson, and r. moonesinghe. 2006. “institutional and economic determinants of public health system performance.” american journal of public health, 96 (3):523-531. national association of county and city health officials. november 2005. operational definition of a functional local health department. naccho: washington, dc. pennsylvania senate resolution 194, 2007, "directing the joint state government commission to establish a legislative task force with an advisory committee of experts to review, update and codify pennsylvania's public health law." http://www.legis.state.pa.us/cfdocs/legis/pn/public/btcheck.cfm?txttype=htma ndsessyr=2007andsessind=0andbillbody=sandbilltyp=randbillnbr=0194andpn=14 63. statemaster.com. 2008. health statistics. total nonfederal physicians (per capita) (most recent) by state. http://www.statemaster.com/graph/hea_tot_non_phy_percap-totalnonfederal-physicians-per-capita (accessed november 30, 2008). ó t .... zjjo·' -;jnio:r.:::; and a1"nerican eledic:u~: the politics of voter ivlobilization in the 2000 presidential election donald w. beachler ithaca college in 2000, labor unions attempted to enhance their polii"ical ij~t7uence by il1creasing voter tumour mnong union manbers ill support of al gore. this strat­ egy'l,vas thought to be especially effective in a polity where voter participation is so low. labor'a political cfforta helped core to a populm' vote victory, but the union political strategy failed because of the dynamics oj the electoral college and low union density in many regions of the united states. the politics of low turnout elections as is well known, american politics is characterized by very low rates of voter participation. the causes of low voter turnout have been fiercely, if inconclusively, debated (piven and cloward 1988; putnam 2001). less attention has been paid to the political consequences of elections in which so few voters participate. because of the very low rates of voter pa.rticipation, relatively smnll segments of the population can have great influence over elections if they vote at a high rate. in presidential elections turnout has ranged from 49% to 55% of the eligible electorate in recent years. off year national elections have drawn about 36% to 39% of the voting age population to the polls. in recent elections, the popular vote for the u.s. house of rep­ resentatives has been divided near1y evenly between the two parties (rimmerman 2001). republicans have retained control of the house since 1994 by winning 1 % to 2% more of the popular vote than the democrats received. because of low voter turnout, the votes of .36% to .72% of the eligible electorate can be vital in determining the outcome of elections. because small increases in voter participation can make a substantial difference in election results, interest groups have greater incentives to mobilize their members into the electorate in a pobty characterized by very low rates of voter participation. this article presents a case study of organized labor, an interest group that has been losing membership and political influence for decades. in recent elections, labor has attempted to compensate for its declining ranks by mobilizing its members to go to the polls in greater numbers and to increase the percentage of union members voting for union endorsed candidates. the article investigates labor's attempt to mobilize its members in a demobilized polity. 23 the politics of a declining union movement the decline of organized labor in the united states has been much documented and thoroughly debated. the loss of millions of jobs in unionized industries cost organized labor millions of members. ameri­ can labor law, which is hostile to union organizing, has exacerbated such losses, and they have been compounded further by the reluctance of com­ placent unions to commit resources to organizing new members. it is not possible for this article to delve deeply into the debate over the causes of the decline of labor unions in the united states (goldfield 1987; geoghegan 1991). it is important to note that in the 1950s, labor unions represented about one-third of the american workforce. by 2000, roughly 13% of u.s. work­ ers belonged to labor unions. because of a surge in unionization of pub­ lic employees during the last three decades of the twentieth century, by 2000 just over 9% of private sector workers belonged to labor unions (greenhouse 2001). labor suffered a number of legislative defeats even during the osten­ sibly friendly clinton admmistration. a filibuster in a jjemocratic con­ trolled senate defeated legislation banning striker replacement. the afl­ cio lost bitter battles in opposition to the clinton administration over the north american free trade agreement (nafta) in 1993 and perma­ nent normal trade relations (pntr) with china in 2000. while unions did have some political successes during the clinton administration, they were clearly perceived to be a declining political force (heberlig 1999). labor was dealt a major political blow when republicans won ma­ jorities in both houses of congress in the 1994 elec lions. mally ul llull members were disaffected by the clinton administration's support of the nafta agreement and the president's embrace of gun control mea­ sures (reich 1998). voters from union households constituted just 14% of the electorate. the low turnout of union and other blue-collar work­ ers was one reason for the republicans' historic victory in 1994. by the 1990s, the republican party was much more hostile to labor unions than it had been in the administrations of presidents eisenhower, nixon, and ford. president nixon, for example, believed that the social conservatism and nationalism of many union members would lead them to support him as he constructed a silent majority of americans who objected to the cultural and socialliberalisrn of elements wllhin lhe dt:ulu­ cratic party. nixon did not support the desire of unions for changes in american labor law that would make union organizing easier, but he was prepared to accept the status quo in american labor relations in pursuit of his alliance with union members (safire 1975; fry-mer and skrentny 1998). 24 in the 1980s, the reagan administration was distinctly hostile to the interests of organized labor, signaling a shift in republican attitudes to­ ward labor. the l\.eagan administration had an ideological anti-union­ ism that brought a missionary zeal to union busting. drav,ting support from the conservative sunbelt regions of the country, reagan's election signaled a distinctly hostile attitude toward union labor (gross 1995). a strongly anti-labor faction dominated the republican party that as­ sumed control of the house of representatives and senate in january of 1995. the republicans wished to deprive unions of their political funds by passing "paycheck protection" legislation that would have made it dif­ ficult for unions to raise money to spend in political campaigns. the gop also attempted to lobby the nlrb to restrict what it perceived as the pro­ union bent of the nlrb under the appointees of bill clinton (dark 1999). in 1995 john sweeney, president of the service employees interna­ tional union (seiu), mounted an insurgent campaign that ousted afl­ cia president lane kirkland. sweeney's challenge was based on the notion that labor must aggressively organize new members, especially service workers, to reverse the decades long decline in membership that organized labor had experienced. sweeney also argued that labor must find new ways to expand its political influence. in pursuit of his goals, sweeney aggre~~ively sought tu llirect uniun fuilii::; tuwaru urgani:dng efforts, to expand labor's alliances with progressive interest groups, and to inject union funds into campaigns in an effort to undo the damage done in the 1994 elections (sweeney 1996). faced with a hostile republican congress, unions attempted to revive their political influence in the 1996 election with a two-pronged approach. labor spent $25 million on an independent expenditure campaign of media ads that attacked selected republican representatives for advanc­ ing a radical right wing agenda (heberlig 1999). in 1996, labor also ex­ panded its efforts to mobilize and educate its own members about candi­ dates and issues. in the closing weeks of the 1996 campaign, the repub­ lican party respundell with all $8 milliuil uullar du verti::;ing campaign that condemned the political efforts of "union bosses" (hershey 1997). the renewed electoral efforts of unions met with mixed success. re­ publicans retained control of the house of representatives, but labor's efforts were credited with defeating several republican incumbents. twelve of the 24 republican freshmen targeted by the afl-cio lost their reelection bids in 1996. congressional elections scholar gary jacobson estimated that without the independent expenditures campaign of orga­ nized labor only two of the 24 would have been defeated (jacobson 1997; jacobson 1999). union voter turnout increased from 19% to 23% even though there was a sharp decrease in the rate of voter participation in the electorate as a whole. 25 the percentage of union household voters who supported bill clinton in his successful reelection effort increased slightly from 55% in 1992 to 59% in 1996 (new york times, 2000). the afl-cio also believed that its ads attacking the republican congressional agenda were partially re­ sponsible for the moderation in the agenda of the 104th congress, which increased the minimum wage, enacted a provision facilitating health in­ surance portability, and reversed cuts to medicare and education. labor unions were given considerable credit for the democrats' sur­ prise showmg in the 1998 congressional elections. with the exception at 1934, the party of the president had lost house seats in every off-year election in the twentieth century. the president's party has often suf­ fered exceptionally large losses in the sixth year of a president's term. in 1998, democrats were further burdened with a presidential scandal that would shortly lead to the impeachment of president bill clinton. de­ spite predictions of political disaster, the democrats held their 4:5 senate seats and gained five seats ih the house of representatives. labor fo­ cused on mobilizing its members to vote, and the percentage of the elec­ torate that resided in a union household increased from 14% in 1994 to 22%. in 1998 (heberlig 1999). sixty-four percent of the union electorate reported voting for the democratic candidate for the u.s. house of rep­ resentatives as opposed to 60% in 1994 (new york times 1998; heberlig 1999). the marginal improvement in the vote of union members for demo­ cratic house candidates and the substantial improvement in voter turn­ out among unionists and their families gave labor reason to hope that it could be even more successful in 2000. 2000: labor attempts to elect al gore the afl-cio endorsed al gore in the fall of 1999. the fecleration's support· for gore came at a time when he appeared vulnerable to the challenge of former new jersey senator bill bradley. labor provided vital assistance to gore as he extinguished bradley's quest for the nomi­ nation with victories in the iowa caucus and the new hampshire pri­ mary. during the nominating process, some unions, most notably the teamsters and the united auto workers, withheld support from gore because of their disagreement with the trade policies of the clinton ad­ ministration~ even after gore had secured the democratic nomination, some labor leaders publicly flirted with the notion of remaininls neutral or endorsing ralph nader's green party candidacy (corn 2000). after the democratic convention in august 2000, however, virtually the entire labor movement united to support gore's quest for the presidency (beachler 2001). 26 table 1 labor union household voting in presidential elections, 1992-2000 presidential vote of union members % of electorate residing in democratic union households democrat republican other* margin** 1992 19 55 24 21 31 1996 23 59 30 9 29 2000 26 59 37 3 22 * the other vote was for ross perot in 1992 and 1996 and primarily for ralph nader in 2000. ** the democratic margin was calculated by subtracting the republican percentage of the union household vote from the democratic percentage of the union household vote. table 1 shows the voting patterns.of union household members in the presidential elections of 1992,199(1, and 2000. it also lists the percentage of the electorate residing in union households. the percentage of the electorate residing in union households increased substantially in each of the three elections examined in table 1. the focus on increasing labor's share of the total electorate was very successful as union turnout increased from 19% in 1992, to 23% in 1996, and 26% in 2000. table 1 illustrates that, while labor union members supported demo­ cratic presidential candidates by large margins, unions cannot be said to have had unqualified political success in convincing their members to vote for the democratic nominee. the historical pattern of many union household residents voting for the republican nominee persisted dur­ ing this period. in 1992, bill clinton took 55% of the union household vote to 24% for bush and 21 % for perot. in 1996, perot was a weakened political force and received just ~% of the union household vote, while clinton took 59% and dole won 30%. clinton's margin among union voters was re­ duced by 2% from 1992 to 1996. in 2000, labor made a major political effort on behalf of al gore's bid for the presidency. in the 2000 election, third party candidates were less of a factor. despite a platform that included opposition to trade treaties strongly opposed by many unions, and a call for labor law reform that would facilitate union organizing, ralph nader scored only 3% of the vole among union households. nader's showing among the union elec­ torate was only marginally better than his percentage among non-union voters. 27 al gore won the same 59% of the union electorate that clinton re­ ceived in 1996. george w. bush improved on bob dole's performance among union voters and received 37% of the union vote. in three con­ secutive presidential elections the democratic margin over the republi­ can candidate among union voters has actually declined. the demo­ cratic advantage over the republican candida~e declined by 9% from 1992 to 2000. put another way, in 1992, the percentage of the electorate that was from a union household and voting democratic was 10.45% and the percentage of the electorate that was union household and vot­ ing republican was 4.56%. in 2000, 15.34% of the electorate was union household and voting democratic, while 9.62% of the electorate was union household and voting republican. from 1992 to 2000, republicans actu­ ally gained support among the union electorate at a faster rate than demo­ crats. by increasing the union percentage of the electorate in 1996 and again in 2000, the labor movement clearly aided the democratic presidential nominee. the impact of the labor vote would be even greater if the unions were able to persuade more of their members to vote for the union en­ dorsed candidates. it should be noted that the inability to turn out a higher percentage of voters for the democratic candidate is not a new problem for unions. gore's 59% of the vote was exceeded by th4? demo­ cratic nominee in only three presidential elections since world war ii: 1948, 1960, and 1964 (leroy 1990). table 2 demonstrates that labor was of vital importance to gore's ef­ forts in several key states. two of the most heavily contested \;tates in the election were pennsylvania and michigan. while unions made a major effort to mobilize their members for the democratic ticket, in both battle­ ground states, they faced difficult challenges. the clinton-gore campaign's embrace of trade policies that imperiled manufacturing jobs dampened enthusiasm for the democratic ticket among some union members and union officials (greenhouse 2000a). the bush campaign believed that because there were no real differ­ ences between bush and gore on the trade issues that were so important to autoworkers, steelworkers, and other workers subject to international wage competition, the republicans could appeal to the conservative so­ cial values of some union workers (dreazen 2000). many union mem­ bers have conservative views on social issues. for example, in 199434% of union voters in pennsylvania supported the political goals of the na­ tional rifle association (nra) (clark and masters 2001). in 2000, the nra countered labor's efforts among blue-collar workers, by distribut­ ing literature arguing that gore was a threat to the rights of gun owners (eilperin and edsall 2000). in response to the nra campaign, labor dis­ tributed literature in several battleground states that asserted 1/ al gore 28 table 2 labor voting in selected states in 2000 presidential election % of electorate union non-union residing in union households households households democrat republican democrat republican michigan 43 62 35 42 55 penn~ylvania 30 65 32 44 54 wisconsin 32 55 39 44 52 minnesota 30 56 35 44 50 washington 27 60 33 46 47 oregon 22 58 38 43 51 california 28 5.9 35 50 46 illinois 33 62 36 52 46 new jersey 32 64 32 52 44 maryland 24 65 33 54 42 nevada 33 51 43 42 53 west virginia 33 51 47 43 54 doesn't want to take away your gun. but george w. bush wants to take away your union" (greenhouse 2000b). the principal focus of the union effort in several key states was an intensive get out the vote effort that emphasized mobilizing union mem­ bers and their families to come to the polls and vote for gore. in 2000, labor expanded its efforts to build voter turnout by having union activ­ ists contact other members of their unions. in 1998, when labor used what afl-cio political director steve rosenthal called, lithe program," 75% of the union members contacted voted for the union endorsed can­ didate. in 2000, more than 500 organizers were trained at afl-cio head­ quarters and dispatched to 25 states targeted by the afl-cio. speaking of the afl-cig' s massive get out the vote effort, rosenthal claimed, "ba­ sically, it is a throwback to what we were doing in the 1930's and 40's when we were at our peak. it is a culture change" (dreyfus 2000). table 2 demonstrates that labor was able to meet its goals in michigan and pennsylvania. in michigan, 21.5% of the workforce belonged to unions in 1999. in the 2000 presidential election, 4:3% of michigan voters resided in a union household. twenty-seven percent of the voters in 29 michigan wf're actual union mf'mbf'fs. v\thf'n wf' consiof'r thm not f'very member of the electorate is employed, it is obvious that unions turned out their members in numbers far greater than their percentage of the voting age population. it is not possible to determine precisely what portion of the eligible electorate was in the workforce and what percent­ age of union members were employed in november 2000. still it is clear that union over-representation was quite substantial. not only did labor turn out its members in michigan, but they voted for gore by a 64% to 32% margin. gore also won 59% of the vote among those voters who resided in a union household, but were not themselves union members. the strong labor turnout in a state where the most re­ cent u aw contract with thp rl11tomohilp m::jnufacturers made election day a holiday, enabled gore to win michigan by a margin of 5%. in the battleground state of pennsylvania, labor started with a some­ what smaller base, as 17.4°/;'" of pennsylvania workers belonged to unions in 1999. residents of labor union households 'accounted for 30% of the electorate, with union members themselves constituting 17% of the vot­ ers. vvhile the union voter turnout equaled the percentage of the labor force that belongs to unions/ it is again important to recall that not all of the electorate is employed. in pennsylvania/ 19% of the voters were over the age of 65 and another 9% were between 60 and 64 years of age. pre­ sumably a significant portion of this population was not employed. while the data unfortunately do not permit a predsf' c::jkll1anon of thp df'3rf'f' that labor was over-represented in the electorate in pennsylvania, it is clear that union members turned out at a higher rate than all eligible voters. in pennsylvania/ union members voted for gore by a margin of 67% to 29%. those who resided in a union household/ but were not union members themselves supported gore by a 62% to 36% margin. labor's vigorous efforts in pennsylvania delivered another key state to gore. table 2 also indicates that unions were crucial to gore's victories in minnesota, oregon, wisconsin, and washington. in each state, gore won the union household -vote, but lost the non-union household vote. it is also reasonable to assume that union voters wl"rp ovl"r-rl"prf'sf'ntf'd in the electorate in each of these states. labor was clearly harmed by the electoral college system because in some states with a huge union turnout, gore won by large margins. for example, in new york, 39% of the electorate reported living in union households. gore won the union electorate by 65% to 30% and also cap­ tured the non-union electorate by a 57% to 39% margin. union voters helped gore to his remarkable 1.7 million popular vote win in new york. (gore's 60% to 35% victory in new york was slightly better than bush's 59% to 38% win in texas). in new jersey, 32% of the electorate resided in 30 union households and these voters bv a tv,io to one margin. • u the democratic candidate also carried the non-union electorate by 8%. similar pattems occurred in california, maryland: and minois where gore won both the union and non-union electorates. core's very strong shmv­ ing in union states meant that he won by very large popular vote mar­ gins in these states. gore's substantial margins of victory in these states enabled him to win the popular vote nationally. unfortunately for gore, and. fur labor uniuns in the united states, the candidate with the most popular votes does not necessarily win the election. the regional structure of the american labor movement labor's ability to assist gore was further restricted by the geographi­ cal disparities in labor union density in the united states. table 3 lists the states won by gore and bush and the percentage of the work force in each state that belonged to labor unions. gore won only two states, ver­ mont and new mexico, where the union density percentage was signifi­ cantly below the national average of 13.9%. vermont is an unusual state that elects congress' only avowed democratic socialist, and has moved leftward as a result of population influx (barone and cohen 2002). in new mexico, an electorate that was 32% latino aids democrats. in 2000, gore won 66% of this latino vote as he eked out a 500 vote victory over bush in new mexico. gore also won the district of columbia, which has a union density of 13.1 %, but the huge black electorate in the nation's capital aided him there. bush was able to win several states where the union percentage was above the national bush won several high union density west­ ern states (alaska, nevada, and montana), where issues such as land use and gun control have alienated a majority of voters from the national democratic party (barone and cohen 2002). bush also won in some high union density states such as ohio, indiana, and missouri, which are per­ ceived to be more culturally conservative than the northeast and west coast states where gore ran well. finally, bush won west virginia, one of the most democratic states in the country in recent presidential elections. prior to 2000, west virginia had voted democratic in eight of ten presidential elecbons, a record of democratic fealty exceeded only by minnesota. bush's win in vvest vir­ ginia illustrates the difficulties unions have in maintaining a coalition with environmentalists and liberal social issue groups in the democratic party. in west virginia, the union vote was essentially a dead heat. union vut~rti were turn~d off by gore's environmentalism, which they feared would cost union mining jobs. west virginia is also a morally conserva­ tive state wher~ there is strong opposition to gun control. furthermore, 31 table 3 gore and bush states by union density states won union by bush density alaska 20.4 nevada 19.5 ohio 17.9 indiana 15.7 missouri 15.3 montana 15.3 west virginia 15.2 kentucky 11.6 alabama 11.0 new hampshire 10.6 kansas 9.7 colorado 9.4 north dakota 9.3 idaho 9.2 wyoming 1.).1 nebraska 8.8 oklahoma 8.1 louisiana 8.1 tennessee 7 . .5 arkansas 7.5 georgia 7.3 arizona 6.7 virginia 6.6 florida 6.5 utah 6.4 mississippi 6.2 texas 6.0 south dakota 6.0 south carolina 3.5 north carolina :1.2 32 states won union by gore density new york 25.3 hawaii 23.2 michigan 21.5 washington 20.7 new jersey 20.5 minl1esola 19.3 connecticut 18.2 wisconsin 18.1 illinois 18.0 rhode island 17.4 pennsylvania 17.4 maine 17.1 california 16.6 massachusetts 16.2 oregon 15.2 maryland 15.0 iowa 13.8 delaware 13.8 district of columbia 13.2 new mexico 9.9 vermont 9.7 .. national percentage of union workers = 13.9% **gore states' average union density = 17.1% ***bush states' average union density = 9.91% steel jobs in northern \-vest virginia were threatened b"y the free trade policies of the clinton administration. given the demographies and po­ litical climate in v\test virginia in 2000, bush was able to split the union vote, carry the state, and in effect, win the presidency (barone and cohen 2002). bush mainly carried states where the union density was below the national avcragc. thc states bush won had an llvcrage union density of 9.9%. average union membership in bush states was about 60°,{) of the average union density of 17.1 % in states won by gore. if labor is to have more influence in presidential politics, it will need to expand its mem­ bership in states where a disproportionate share of the workforce is un­ organized. the significance of unions in state electoral outcomes in the 2000 presidential election is evident in table 4. table 4 union density and race in the 2000 presidential elections gore popular vote by state black population latino population union density constant adjusted r2 .336** .106 .372 .188 .116 .194 .962*** .180 .622 28.13~** 3.128 .384 the numbers in each variable column are the regression coefficient, standard error and the standardized regression coefficient. ** si):jnificant at .01 level *** significant at .001 level table 4 is a regression that seeks to measure union influence on state results in the 2000 presidential election. the dependent variable in the regression was the percentage ot the popular vote received by aj gore in each state. to control for racial differences in voting, which are very significant in the united states, independent variables were included for 33 the african-american and latino percentages of each state's population. the third independent variable was the percentage of the state's labor force that belonged to a labor union. the results of the regression presented in table 4 indicate that union density is an important predictor of a state's percentage voting for gore. while african-american population was positively corrdated with the vote for gore, it is a large union workforce lhal conlribuled iilu::;t ::;jg-nifi­ cantly to a larger vote for gore. when we control for the impact of race in each state, union density was a strong positive predictor of support for gore in the 200u election. the regression in table 4 demonstrates the price that labor has paid for being a highly regionalized factor in american politics. based on the 2000 election, it is clear that an expanded union membership would ben­ efit the democratic party. table 4 also demonstrates that if labor wishes to hp ;m pven stronger influence in presidential politics, it must expand union density in at least some states where it has been weak. conclusion in many senses, labor's massive voter mobilization strategy was a success. it provided al gore with a popular vote victory in the nation. unions helped gore win the crucial battleground states of michigan and pennsylvania and were also essential to gore's wins in 'minnesota, wis­ consin, washington, and oregon. labor's turnout strategy was limited by several factors. first there is a rather sevptp 3pogrplphicailimit to labor's ability to influence the re­ sults of presidential elections. labor's influence is, for the most part, concentrated in the northeastern, upper midwestern and pacific coast states of the country. in most of the so-called dush 1/ red zone" of states in the south, great plains, and rocky mountain west, union density is well below the national average. with the exception of california, all of the states gaining house seats, and therefore electoral votes, as a result of the 2000 census were carried by bush in 2000. unless they can expand union membership in low density states, unions' electoral power will be further circumscribed in future presidential elections . . union turnout strategy is further limited by the inability of labor to convince a grestpt nllmber of union members and members of their households to vote for union endorsed candidates. while it is true that empirical research has indicated that union members are far more likely to vote for democrats than are other workers, unions must do a beller job of convincing more unionized workers to vote for union endorsed candidates. the democratic margin over republicans in union house­ hold voting actually declined in each of the three presidential elections 34 between 1992 and 2000. if afl-cio political director rosenthal is cor­ rect in his assertion that 75% of union members contacted by activists using "the plan" vote for the union endorsed candidate, then we must conclude that a significant number of union workers are not being reached hy union po1iiical activists without revprsing thi.s trend, labor will have even less opportunity to determine the outcome of presidential elections. union political power would be enhanced by electoral reforms that are unlikely to occur. the electoral college's "winner-take-all" tradition weakens union political influence because in many states union turnout efforts increase the margin by which the democratic candidate wins the state. this effect is compounded by the fact that many of the states in which union organizing is easiest, such as california and new york, have been among the strongest democratic states in recent elections. in the electoral college, of course, the margin of victory in a state is irrelevant. the abolition of the electoral college and the implementation of a direct popul<lr votl" ml"thoa to elect the president would end the wasted votes that frustrate labor power. given the lack of a movement for direct popu­ lar election following the controversial 2000 election, it seems highly unlikely that the electoral college will be altered or abolished. if labor is to increase its political impact on elections it will have to organize more workers into unions. despite the call for increased orga­ nizing by afl-cio president john sweeney, individual unions do most organizing. while some unions have aggressively recruited new mem­ bers, many others have committed few resources to organizing (green­ house 2001). without some vigorous organizing success, labor's attempt to expand its political influence will be limited. to increase its political influence in pre~identi<ll plectinns, l",hor must also attempt to organize workers in states that have relatively low union density. if 10% of florida's workers had been unionized in 2000, as opposed to 6.5%, al gore would have won the 2000 presidential election. despite george w. bush's narrow victory in the 2000 presidential elec­ tion, low turnout elections present many opportunities to interest groups that work to mobilize their members. it was the 50% increase in black turnout in florida that made the election so dose in that state and almost certainly would have given gore a victory there, and thus the presidency, had every voter's preference been registered. presidential elections are only one aspect of the electoral universe in the united states. union efforts were critical in the democrats attaining a 50-50 split in the united states senate in the 2000 election. democrats later gained a slim majority in the senate when vermont republican james jeffords became an independent and cast his vote with the democrats in organizing the senate. table 5 demonstrates that in five senate elections in 2000, labor voters were crucial in democratic victories. 35 table 5 union household voting in selected senate elections in 2000 union non-union household voting household voting democrat republican democrat ri~publican michigan 63 35 35 59 minnesota 56 39 46 47 missouri 58 40 47 53 new jersey 56 41 48 49 washington 59 38 46 53 it is in the states where unions are already strong that the political climate is most hospitable to organizing more workers into unions. some of the most notable union successes in recent decades have come in cali­ fornia (myerson 2uu1). even when they increase voter turnout in states such as new york and california, labor has the ability to push politics in a leftward direction and to elect pro-labor officials to a plethora of offices including the united states congress. a demobilized polity presents special opportunities to those who can and will educate and mobilize their members even when that interest group is in decline. references barone, michael, and richard e. cohen. 2001. the almanac of american politics, 2007 wa'lhington, dc: the nationaljournal. beachler, donald w. 2001. "labor's triumphs and frustrations." working usa: the journal of labor and society 5 (summer): 103-23. clark. paul f.. and marick f. masters. 2001. "competing interest groups and union members voting." social science quarterly 82 (1): 105-16. com, david. 2000. "labor's love lost." the nation, june 26,2000,4-5. dark, taylor. 1999. the unions and the democrats: an enduring alliance. ithaca: cornell university press. dreazen, yochi 2000. "unions disaffected ranks could spell trouble for gore." the wall street journal, october 16, a38. dreyfus, robert. 2000. "rousing the democratic base." american prospect 11 (november): 20-3. eilperin, juliet, and thomas b. edsall. 2000. "for democrats gun issue is los­ ing its clout." the washington post, october 20, ai. frymer, paul and john david skrentny. 1998. "coalition building and the poli­ tics of electoral capture during the nixon administration: african ameri­ cans, labor, latinos." studies in american political development 12.: 31-61. 36 geoghegan, thomas. 1991. j,vhirh side are y()ji 011 ?trj!ins to bejiir la/jar when it's flat on its back. nevi' york: farrar, straus, and giroux. goldfield, michael. 1987. the declille of or2,rwized la/jor ill the 'united states. chicago: university of chicago press. greenhouse, steven. 2000a. 'ts. labor leaders push hard to kill china trade bill." the new york times, may ai. __ . 2000b, "labor tailors its vote for gore message, state by! state." the new ynrk timp!>, november 2, a28. 2001. "unions hit lowest point in six decades," the ne,o york times, february 12, a12. gross, james a. 1995. broken prmnisp: the slih71p1'.c;inl1 nf flu.> ijs lahor relatio11s policy, 1947-1994. philadelphia: temple university press. heberlig, eric s. 1999. "coordinating issues and elections: organized labor in the republican era." american revie'w of politics 20: 163-80. hershey, marjorie randon. 1997. "the congressional elections." in the election of1996: reports and interpretations, ed. gerald pomper. chatham, nj: chatham house publishers. jacobson, gary. 1997. "the 10stil congress: unprecedented and unsurprising." in the election of1996, ed. michael nelson. washington, dc: congressional quarterly press. , 1999. "the effect of the afl-cio's voter education campaigns on the 1996 house elections." journal of politics 61(1): 185-94. leroy, michael h. 1990. "the 1988 elections: reemergence of the labor bloc vote." labor studies jour11ai15: 5-32. meyerson, harold. 2001. "california's progressive mosaic." the american pros­ pect 12 (june): 17-23. new york times. 1998. ii a look at voting patterns of 115 demographic groups in house races." (november 9): a20. new york times. 2000. "exit poll." week in review section, (november 12): 4. piven, frances fox, and richard a. cloward. 1998. whil americans don't vote. new york: pantheon. putnam, robert. 2001. bowling alone: the collapse ami revival of american com­ mu11lty. new york: fantheon. reich, robert. 1998. locked il1 the cabil1et. new york: vintage. rimmerman, craig. 2001. the new citizenship: unconve11tional politics, activism, and service. boulder: westview press. safire, william. 1975. b~fore the fall: an inside view of the nixon white house before watergate. garden city: doubleday & co. sweeney, john. 1996. america needs a raise. boston: houghton mifflin. 37 microsoft word journal commonwealth 2007 final 0307.doc 23 from realism to liberalism: george w. bush’s rhetorical foreign policy transition, 1999–2004 nathan r. shrader suffolk university this article examines international relations rhetoric rather than foreign policy practice. between the time of his acceptance of the republican presidential nomination in august 2000 and his reelection in november 2004, george w. bush changed his rhetorical focus from “realist” to “liberal internationalist” in an effort to sell his foreign policy agenda. this shift is identified through an analysis of nine presidential speeches and one excerpt from a book bush wrote prior to becoming president. by exploring bush’s foreign policy pronouncements, the article reveals shifting patterns of presidential rhetoric and demonstrates the importance of studying presidential rhetoric in international relations theory. introduction the election of texas governor george w. bush to the white house in november of 2000 appeared to be the beginning of an administration that would focus primarily on domestic issues such as social security reform, improving education, and shrinking the size and cost of the federal government. it did not seem likely that foreign policy and international relations would ultimately become the focus of the incoming administration. the new president set out to pass his no child left behind proposal as well as a series of tax cuts. only eight months after bush’s inauguration, however, he faced a situation that ended any notion that his would be a presidency devoted simply to addressing domestic concerns. the september 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on american soil redirected the focus not just of the bush presidency, but of the entire united states government. domestic policy debates soon turned to foreign policy debates. the bush administration was now faced with planning a 24 counter-attack to the deadly actions of the terrorists and developing a long-term strategy to combat terrorism. foreign policy and international relations were not completely forgotten at either the opening of the bush presidential campaign or in the early days of his presidency. candidate bush gave a variety of speeches to military and party organizations during the course of the campaign, many peppered with typical american presidential election chestnuts proclaiming the need to maintain america’s strength, to build a more powerful military, and to raise pay for military personnel. because of the problem of terrorism, however, bush’s foreign policy rhetoric eventually changed dramatically. this article examines the rhetorical aspects of bush’s key foreign policy speeches and writings between the time of his nomination in september 2000 and his reelection in november 2004.1 these materials were chosen not because of the policies they promote, but because of the nature of their political rhetoric. the bush administration’s rhetorical focus shifted from “realist”2 to “liberal internationalist”3 during this period because it was engaged in a political marketing campaign to brand, package, and sell a foreign policy to the american people. through the use of presidential rhetoric, the administration converted bush from a reaganesque realist to a neo-wilsonian who relied upon the generalities of international institutions and the promotion of democracy to achieve a permission slip from the american people to expand the overall “war on terror” to a separate battleground in iraq under the guise of expanding democracy. the result was an internationalist liberal rhetorician in the white house and a new battle to make the middle east a breeding ground for democracy. by tracing the transition from one school of international relations thought to another over a set period of time, the article highlights the modern realities of political marketing. framework the presidency and political rhetoric the importance of presidential rhetoric in guiding and formulating public policy is immense. the verbal stimuli that come from the president of the united states are intriguing and significant to policy makers and rhetoricians solely because the 25 public responds when the president speaks about policy problems. this attention becomes increasingly important as technology advances, making access to the mass public even easier. furthermore, the mass public, to a degree, is psychologically dependent upon the president, thus increasing the levels to which the public is receptive to a presidential message (cohen 1995). hence, an issue is elevated when it is on the president’s agenda. his attention sends a signal to the public that the issue is of national importance. jeffrey cohen (1995, 93) suggests that “people have been noted as being notoriously uninformed and uninterested in international affairs” unless a specific event has a tremendous impact on their lives. he believes that this lack of interest and attention is good news for a president, because he will be more likely to find success in framing a message in an area that is neither closely followed nor well understood by the public. cohen also notes that presidential rhetoric is persuasive because of the prestige and position of the president. this means that scholars carefully watch the president’s rhetoric because they are, according to rhetorician mary stuckey, “sensitive to the nuances of language and how it can be manipulated to produce certain results” (1996, 155). in an era of instantaneous communication via the world wide web, 24 hour cable news, opinion polling, and around-the-clock attention to politics and politicians, the rhetorical process is accelerated tremendously (gronbeck 1996). the lasting effect of this communication boom is that twentieth and 21st century presidents, unlike their 19th century counterparts, can go over the heads of congress and take their appeals and policy rhetoric directly to the people. for example, tulis (1996) cites theodore roosevelt’s campaign to regulate the railroads, woodrow wilson’s push to enter into the league of nations, franklin roosevelt’s fireside chats, lyndon johnson’s war on poverty, and ronald reagan’s 1981 tax reform and strategic defense initiative. the 20th century has taught us that the rhetorical process is more important than ever since presidents may choose to use the various and increasingly fast-paced mediums of communication to their advantage when promoting a policy or a message. as john kingdon has observed, “no other single actor in the political system has quite the capability of the president to set agendas in given policy areas for all who deal with those policies (andrade and young 1996, 202). 26 political marketing: selling candidates and policy politics often defies conventional wisdom because in the political world words can speak louder than actions. the growing number of ways of communicating with the american public has helped to make political rhetoric a more powerful tool for building consensus for political messages, selling a candidate, or marketing a policy choice. legendary house speaker thomas a. (“tip”) o’neill is credited for the aphorism that “all politics is local.” in the 21st century, it may be possible to state that “all politics is marketing,” and political rhetoric is the means by which political figures “sell” their political agendas. lilleker and lees-marshment (2005, 1) suggest that the use of political marketing is a result of “qualitative and quantitative marketing research. commercial techniques and strategy have permeated the political arena, in response to the rise of more critical, better educated and informed electorates.” nicholas o’shaughnessy believes that rhetoric and communication within the political arena today are maximized through an increasing attempt to sell public policies through political marketing strategies. these marketing strategies are typically seen as being most effective when “selling” a candidate to the voting public. “the marketing concept is distinguished, above all, by the emphasis that is placed on consumer focus. identifying the needs and wants of customers and fashioning the products and communications shaped by that understanding is the core of the marketing task” (o’shaughnessy 1999, 728). o’shaughnessy distinguishes political marketing from political propaganda, with propaganda being moralistic and marketing being consumer-driven and research-defined. in other words, the contemporary political system is driven by market-tested, resultoriented research that can effectively help to “sell” a candidate or a policy proposal. this political marketing tells people what they wish to hear in a pleasing way. propaganda differs because it attempts to enlighten people with what they ought to know. hence, modern rhetorical political communication closely mirrors the political marketing model. 27 defining liberalism and realism before addressing the presidential rhetoric of george w. bush, it is necessary to define the “realist” and “liberal” schools of international relations theory. following the “war to end all wars,” international relations scholars saw a need to develop a theory to prescribe viable solutions to the international problems that lingered after the most brutal conflict the world had ever seen. the “utopian” school emerged to answer these concerns and dominated the landscape of international relations theory after world war i. utopianism can best be described as a society with all good and no evil, perfect balance, complete knowledge, and the endless meeting of human needs without exertion (will 2002). utopian scholars and leaders concluded that war is not a part of human nature but an action based upon the mistakes and failures of politicians. seeking a more perfect society, they made world peace and democracy their touchstone. the realist school was founded as a reaction to ideas of the “utopians.” realism has its roots in ancient greek political thought as well as in machiavellian theories and politics. realist scholars such as e.h. carr and hans morgenthau agued that because utopians were overly idealistic, they could not address seriously issues of power, conflict, and human nature. according to realist scholar john j. mearsheimer, realism takes a vision of the international system sharply different from the utopian view. realists share mearsheimer’s view of survival as the primary motivational factor in international relations. mearsheimer (1994– 95, 9) states that the international arena is “a brutal area where states look for opportunities to take advantage of each other, and therefore have little reason to trust each other.” steven m. walt (1997, 934) calls realism a “simple and powerful way to understand relations among political groups.” realists believe that although most people wish for a more harmonious world of shared interests, it is not acceptable to use this vision as a basis for international relations theory. carr suggests that the utopian appeal to a “harmony of interests” between states is actually designed to uphold the status quo and reaffirm the power of the dominant states (burchill 2001). morgenthau (1972) outlines several principles of political realism, the most fundamental being 28 that nations have little incentive to adopt a policy unless doing so enhances a nation’s power position. by contrast, liberalism in international relations theory emphasizes institutions, order, and commerce as the backbone of international politics. this school of thought seeks to advance the ideals of peace and freedom via popular enlightenment, democratic government, and free markets for trade. liberalism’s roots can be traced back to adam smith’s wealth of nations in 1776 and to john stuart mill’s on liberty in 1859. while smith focused on economic freedom, mill stressed democratic institutions and the freedoms of speech and press. in defending liberalism, mill argued that “the struggle between liberty and authority is the most conspicuous feature in the portions of history with which we are earliest familiar, particularly in that of greece, rome, and england. but in old times this contest was between subjects, or some classes of subjects, and the government. by liberty, was meant protection against the tyranny of political rulers” (mill 1859, 5). following in the footsteps of smith and mill, michael w. doyle (1986, 1152) argues that liberal states respect “individual freedom, political participation, private property, and equality of opportunity.” another key element of liberal thought is institutionalism and the spread of democracy, as advocated by individuals such as woodrow wilson and personified by working bodies such as the league of nations and the united nations. liberals believe that international institutions such as these can prevent the sort of death and devastation that occurred during the two world wars. for example, edward morse (1970) contends that six characteristics befall modern societies: growth of knowledge, increased political centralization, politicization of the people, development of wealth, urbanization, and adaptation to change rather than the acceptance of the status quo. as a result, says john m. owen (1994), the spread of liberal democracies promotes world peace because liberal democracies avoid conflict with one other and achieve a “harmony of interests” in the interest of self-preservation. boyd a. martin (1948, 295) sums up the essence of liberalism this way: liberalism has had many different meanings under different circumstances. at different times it has sought, for example, to protect the right to acquire property, to shield the 29 individual against tyranny, to establish the doctrine of inherent rights of men, to organize a world market, or to create individualism. in most instances, however, the needs of the time determine the role of liberalism. this article thus treats liberalism in the context of commitment to institutionalism, an emphasis on free trade, the advance of democratic ideals, the rejection of tyranny, political participation, collective security, and the pursuit of a harmony of interests. it defines realism in the context of the pursuit of power, the defense of the national interest, focus on sovereignty and survival, and the theory of balance of power politics. findings the underpinnings of george w. bush’s early realist-leaning viewpoints can be found in his 1999 book, a charge to keep: my journey to the white house, a typical introductory volume released by a candidate prior to the start of a major campaign. such books are designed to raise a candidate’s name identification with voters well before the first round of party primaries and caucuses. a charge to keep focuses on candidate bush’s personal history, his family, and various initiatives that he developed as governor of texas, in addition to presenting his positions on both domestic and international issues. the foreign policy section of the book contains a discussion of bush’s view of america’s role in the world and the type of foreign policy that he would pursue if elected. bush states that the quest for peace “requires tough realism in our dealings with china and russia. it requires firmness with regimes like north korea and iraq, regimes that hate our values and resent our success. and the foundation of our peace is a strong, capable, and modern american military (bush 1999, 239). candidate bush’s admitted realism may be comparable to what hans morgenthau (1972) refers to as a public official who discusses foreign policy in a manner that will allow the official to appeal to the popular opinions of the public in order to gain political support. morgenthau’s reaction to a politician appealing to the opinions of the voting public would likely prompt him to reject today’s political 30 marketing model, a concept that will be discussed later in this article. the proposed bush policy appears to advocate “peace through strength,” a slogan that has helped candidates with the electorate since at least the time of richard nixon’s landside defeat of senator george mcgovern in 1972. political posturing aside, the candidate’s rhetorical commitment to a realist foreign policy also reflects the realism advocated by john mearsheimer, who argues that “great powers seek to maximize security by maximizing their relative power (walt 1997, 993). a second example of candidate bush’s foreign policy rhetoric further reveals his commitment to realist principles. in his presidential nomination acceptance speech, delivered in philadelphia on august 3, 2000, bush declares: we will give our military the means to keep the peace, and we will give it one thing more… a commander-in-chief who respects our men and women in uniform, and a commander-in-chief who earns their respect. . . . a generation shaped by vietnam must remember the lessons of vietnam. . . . when america uses force in the world, the cause must be just, the goal must be clear, and the victory must be overwhelming. . . . i will work to reduce nuclear weapons and nuclear tension in the world—to turn these years of influence into decades of peace. . . . and, at the earliest possible date, my administration will deploy missile defenses to guard against attack and blackmail. . . . now is the time, not to defend outdated treaties, but to defend the american people. a time of prosperity is a test of vision. and our nation today needs vision.” (bush 2000) bush’s attack on treaties, a vital component of the liberal institutionalism advanced by liberal scholars and post-world war i utopians, is very much in sync with the realist scholarship of thinkers like charles krauthammer. krauthammer states that 31 treaties were the cornerstone of foreign policy during the clinton years. bush appears to echo krauthammer’s belief that treaties are nothing more than “parchment that is either useless or worse than useless” (1999, 24). aside from using the opportunity to launch a political attack on the outgoing clinton administration, bush asserts his interest in developing a missile defense system and in ensuring an overwhelming victory if american force is deployed on his watch. furthermore, his statements on defense and foreign policy cited above are among the few to be found in the acceptance speech, which consists mostly of partisan pronouncements on a plethora of social and economic issues, along with the patriotic swooning that is a typical part of such speeches. another aspect of this particular address reflecting a realist rhetorical position is the candidate’s lack of specificity. for instance, which treaties does he deem to be outdated? what is an “overwhelming” victory? what vision is being tested? realist scholars have a tendency to avoid using specific language, and they are often quick to see ordinary citizens are nonpolitical beings who view foreign policy as remote. therefore, foreign policy realists who hold office and make policy are likely to address these issues ambiguously (see harriot 1993). a third example of realist international theory dominating bush’s rhetoric came in his inaugural address, given on january 20, 2001. emphasizing his belief in a global balance of power favoring countries that share the vision of the united states, bush said: our national courage has been clear in times of depression and war, when defending common dangers defined our common good. now we must choose if the example of our fathers and mothers will inspire us or condemn us. we must show courage in a time of blessing by confronting problems instead of passing them on to the future generations. (bush 2001a) he went on to say: we will build our defenses beyond challenge, lest weakness invite challenge. . . . we will 32 confront weapons of mass destruction, so that a new century is spared new horrors. . . the enemies of liberty and our country should make no mistake: america remains engaged in the world by history and by choice, shaping a balance of power that favors freedom. we will defend our allies and our interests. (bush 2001a) bush’s acknowledgement of a “balance of power that shapes freedom” is consistent with the most significant portions of realist doctrine as promoted by e.h. carr who claimed that states pursue power vis-à-vis their own national interests and that disputes over national interests are unavoidable. carr believed that the “only way to minimize such clashes, and therefore the incidence of war, was to ensure that a rough balance of power existed” within the international system (burchill 2001, 75). charles krauthammer’s realist notion that treaties and international agreements are “useless or worse than useless” finds support in bush’s oval office. the president’s realist rhetoric was clearly on display on may 1, 2001, in his “remarks to students and faculty at national defense university.” bush began the speech by focusing on the historical aspects of the rivalry between the united states and the soviet union that shaped the cold war. bush then declared that the united states would soon seek the abrogation of the 1972 abm treaty. “we need a new framework that allows us to build missile defenses to counter the different threats of today’s world,” he said. “to do so, we must move beyond the constraints of the 30 year old abm treaty” (bush 2001b). “this treaty does not recognize the present, or point us to the future,” bush continued. “it enshrines the past. no treaty that prevents us from addressing today’s threats, that prohibits us from pursuing promising technology to defend ourselves, our friends, our allies is in our interests or the interests of world peace” (bush 2001b). realists like morgenthau may not have agreed with a rhetorical policy statement of this nature. however, the realist school recognizes that bush would be justified in cancellation the abm treaty if it hindered american interests. morgenthau believed very strongly that “national interest should be the central concept of international relations theory” (algosaibi 1965, 225.) 33 at this point, the overarching policy of the bush administration turned away from realism and toward liberal institutionalism. this evolution in bush’s rhetoric can be seen in his first state of the union address delivered on january 29, 2002, one year after his inaugural pledge to “build defenses beyond challenge” and watch the balance of power. rather than talking tough against other powers in the world, as he had done in his pre-election rhetoric, bush called for unity against a common danger—terrorism—by erasing “old rivalries.” in his 1999 book, bush had cited the “tough realism” that would be needed to deal with china and russia. now, he indicated that “america is working with russia and china and india, in ways we have never before, to achieve peace and prosperity” (bush 2002b). he went on to say that “in every region, free markets and free trade and free societies are proving their power to lift lives. together with friends and allies from europe to asia, and africa to latin america, we will demonstrate that the forces of terror cannot stop the momentum of freedom” (bush 2002b). perhaps the most obvious sign that bush’s rhetoric had shifted away from realism and toward liberalism came during his “graduation speech at west point,” delivered on june 1, 2002. bush discussed the concept of fighting for a “just peace,” a cause that he claimed had always been central to america’s belief system. in order to build this peace, bush suggested that america build alliances with other “great powers” in order to allow for open societies across the globe (bush 2002a). the west point speech also contained a rejection of the realist principles of containment and deterrence. bush claimed that “new threats also require new thinking. deterrence—the promise of massive retaliation against nations—means nothing against shadowy terrorist networks with no nation or citizens to defend. containment is not possible when unbalanced dictators with weapons of mass destruction can deliver those weapons on missiles” (bush 2002a). he advocated preemptive action as a form of deterrence and also discussed transforming america’s military into a leaner, more rapidly responsive instrument for striking at an enemy. with his discussion of preemptive military action, bush seemed about to make a turn back to the realist rhetorical camp. before this turn could be made, though, bush veered sharply back into the liberal rhetorical camp by stating: “some worry that it is somehow undiplomatic or 34 impolite to speak the language or right and wrong. i disagree. different circumstances require different methods, but not different moralities” (bush 2002a). in continuing defiance of the realist camp, bush picked up the theme of morality. “moral truth is the same in every culture, in every time, and in every place. targeting innocent civilians for murder is always and everywhere wrong. brutality against women is always and everywhere wrong. there can be no neutrality between justice and cruelty, between the innocent and the guilty. we are in a conflict between good and evil, and america will call evil by its name” (bush 2002a). bush also lapsed into a neowilsonianism that denies the inevitability of war and emphasizes the common values that unite “the great powers” of the world. he even called for the worldwide elimination of poverty and repression. although bush had cited earlier a need to strike preemptively at perceived threats, he certainly did not advocate a unilateral approach to striking at “evil” in the world. in fact, he rejected unilateralism and embraces coalition-building: “we must build strong and great power relations when times are good; to help manage crisis when times are bad. america needs partners to preserve the peace, and we will work with ever nation that shares this noble goal” (bush 2002a). the west point speech not only moved bush’s foreign policy rhetoric completely out of the realist school of thought, but it also drove the nails into the casket of realist-based rhetoric from his administration. morgenthau says “the realist is not indifferent to morality. he believes, however, that universal moral principles cannot be realized, but at best approximated” (algosaibi 1965, 227). morgenthau also claims that realism “refuses to identify the moral aspirations of a particular nation with the moral laws that govern the universe” (algosaibi 1965, 227). he argues further that “the fundamental error that has thwarted american foreign policy in thought and action is the antithesis of national interest and moral principles. the equation of political moralizing with morality and political realism is itself untenable” (morgenthau 1951, 33). writing in the fall of 1946, percy bidwell of the council for foreign relations attempted to place into perspective the new world that had been forged by the second world war. he skeptically analyzed the competing schools of international relations theory: the realist school and what he deemed to be the “idealist” camp 35 (later revealed to be the liberal school). bidwell noted that “idealists” speak in terms of wilson and the atlantic charter and lean heavily on the future of the united nations. meanwhile, realists contend that “the only objective of american policy worth considering is national security” (bidwell 1946, 480). he stated that president truman, vis-à-vis the atlantic charter, spoke in terms of democracy being good for all citizens of the world. “if democracy is good for the united states, he [truman] argues, it must be equally good for the romanians and the argentineans” (bidwell 1946, 482). bidwell rejected such thinking, which realists would contend was as applicable to harry truman in 1946 as it was to george w. bush in 2002: “americans who hold these views are rarely troubled by political difficulties. they do not stop to consider how much they themselves have profited from the traditions of selfgovernment reaching back to the magna carta… nor do they remind themselves that democratic institutions in the united states, even after a hundred and fifty years of experience, are still far from perfect” (bidwell 1946, 482). fast forward to eight months later and combine bush’s west point statement with his “address to the american enterprise institute,” given on february 26, 2003. this message is peppered with references to a need to prevent citizens of the free world from living in fear, while rattling the saber against iraqi dictator saddam hussein. bush invoked many benefits to a free iraq, including stability in the region and freedom for those living under hussein’s tyranny. he also used the speech to advocate the expansion of democracy, stating: there was a time when many said that the cultures of japan and germany were incapable of sustaining democratic values. well, they were wrong. some say the same of iraq today. they are mistaken. the nation of iraq—with its proud heritage, abundant resources and skilled and educated people—is fully capable of moving toward democracy and living in freedom. (bush 2003b) bush concluded that “the world has a clear interest in the spread of democratic values, because stable and free nations do not breed 36 the ideologies of murder. they encourage the peaceful pursuit of a better life” (bush 2003b). the rhetoric displayed by president bush in these two speeches denotes a remarkable shift in policy, verbiage, and vision. the shift from rhetorical realism to adoption of the type of democratization policy that liberal scholar john m. owen (1994) called the “third pillar” of clinton foreign policy is essential to understanding the bush administration’s foreign policy. owen asserts that democratization of nations throughout the world will lead to a democratic peace because of respect for the institutions, shared values, and ideology possessed by democratic states. his definition of liberalism is a recurring rhetorical point in several future bush speeches. owen defines liberal democracy as “a state that instantiates liberal ideas, one where liberalism is the dominant ideology, and citizens have leverage over war decisions (1994, 89).” he also links liberal democracy to freedom of speech, competitive elections, functional institutions, and the goal of preventing hostilities. these concepts echo throughout almost every policy speech given by bush between september 11, 2001, and his reelection in november 2004. the most illustrative example of bush’s liberal international political rhetoric came in his address at whitehall palace in london on november 19, 2003. the presidential rhetoric in this speech is clearly liberal and highly optimistic about achieving a democratic peace; for bush endorsed morse’s understanding of modern society, and he embraced the core ideas of owen and mill. throughout the speech, bush rallied to the cause of promoting international institutions, vouching for the ability of free markets to achieve stability and provide encouragement for building democracy. most significant, bush openly attacked several important tenets of the realist school. sounding like mill and smith, bush said, “we believe in open societies ordered by moral conviction. we believe in private markets, humanized by compassionate government. we believe in economies that reward effort, communities to protect the weak, and the duty of nations to respect the dignity and the rights of all” (bush 2003a). the president emphasized the importance of institutions, another essential component of liberalism. “i believe in the international institutions and alliances that america helped to form and helps to lead,” he said. “the united states and great britain 37 have labored hard to help make the united nations what it is supposed to be—an effective instrument of our collective security” (bush 2003a). according to liberal scholars such as michael w. doyle (1983), liberal states are bound by shared values reflected in certain institutions. bush’s endorsement of these institutions, which did not necessarily support the united states war effort in iraq, is further confirmation of his shift from realist to liberal foreign policy rhetoric. bush also used the address to advance the idea of a democratic peace. the united states and great britain, he said, share a “commitment to the global expansion of democracy, and the hope and progress it brings, as the alternative to instability and hatred and terror” (bush 2003a). military power alone cannot bring about lasting security, he added, for “lasting peace is gained as justice and democracy advance” (bush 2003a). departing sharply from the realist rhetoric he invoked during his presidential campaign and in his inaugural address, bush also argued that strengthening democratic institutions would not only increase the likelihood of peace, but would also help “fulfill moral duties” such as fighting disease, aids, and hunger (bush 2003a). finally, the speech contained several outright jabs at the fundamental concepts of the realist school. in discussing the need to address the issues of famine, disease, and peace, bush insisted that the united states and great britain “share a mission in the world beyond balance of power or the simple pursuit of interest” (bush 2003a). similarly, he justified the use of force by the democratic powers of the world to help dethrone tyrants. in yet anther rebuff of realist rhetoric, bush warned that in “some cases, the measured use of force is all that protects us from a chaotic world ruled by force” (bush 2003a). this statement is a far cry from realist giant kenneth waltz’s theories of an anarchical world structure. (waltz 1979) argues that the anarchical state of world affairs is natural, and that states must rely upon the doctrine of selfhelp to protect themselves. bush’s rhetoric seems to reject this anarchical view of the international system, for he chides the “old elites, who time and time again had put their own self-interest above the interest of the people they claim to serve” (bush 2003a). one final speech that clearly indicates a rhetorical shift from realism to liberalism in presidential rhetoric is bush’s “address to the united nations,” given on september 21, 2004. bush again 38 rejected the core ideas of realist scholars. dismissing the “balance of power” concept on the grounds that today there is no way to isolate a nation or hide from terror networks, bush said: “in this young century, our world needs a new definition of security. our security is not merely found in spheres of influence or some balance of power, the security of our world is found in the advancing rights of mankind” (bush 2004a). in place of spheres of influence or a balance of power, bush contended that the new definition of security should be established by laying the “foundations of democracy by instituting the rule of law and independent courts, a free press, political parties and trade unions” (bush 2004a). this is certainly not the sort of agenda that would surface in the scholarship of morgenthau, waltz, mearsheimer, or krauthammer. conclusion the transition from realism to liberalism in the foreign policy rhetoric of president george w. bush from the time of his candidacy to the present is plain. as a presidential candidate, and in the early stages of his administration, bush used an array of realist rhetoric. eschewing treaty-based diplomacy, bush instead endorsed maintaining a balance of power and serving narrow national interests. within several months of his inauguration, bush switched from a realist-driven rhetorical approach to a liberal-based approach when discussing international relations and foreign affairs. his major speeches emphasized democratization, fighting tyranny, seeking democratic peace, and promoting free trade as an instrument of institutional reform rather than as a tool of national interest. all these points represent a clear rejection of the realist doctrine. robert jervis (2003) claims that bush’s focus is on the total remaking of international politics. he cites the terrorist attacks of september 11, 2001, as a very important period of change for bush. at the six month anniversary of the tragedy, bush remarked that the world can address the issues facing civilization with unity and courage, a remark that jervis notes is fully in line with progressive liberalism. this study shows that the post-september 11 president bush is a very different foreign policy rhetorician than the pre-september 11 president bush. the bush administration no longer is adhering 39 to a realist approach in foreign policy rhetoric. peggy noonan, a former speechwriter for president ronald reagan and columnist for the wall street journal, also sees a shift in the president’s political rhetoric. following bush’s second inaugural address in january 2005, noonan, a pure conservative realist, commented that bush’s speech reflected his “evolving thoughts on freedom in the world” (2005, 8). she noted further that the foreign policy battle today is fought between realists and moralists, with bush siding “strongly with the moralists, which was not a surprise,” given current events (noonan 2005, 8). there are only two potential rhetorical routes for bush to take. he could continue to proclaim freedom via trade, democratization, and open societies. alternatively, as we drift away from the defining moments of his presidency—the september 2001 terrorist attacks and the war in iraq—the rhetoric could swing back toward the balance of power language that dominated his preseptember 11 speeches. in light of this study’s findings, it is likely that the rhetorical liberalism of president george w. bush will continue. the political marketing model would also predict that the pattern of rhetorical liberalism will continue. president bush’s rhetorical shift from realism to liberalism occurred because in foreign policy liberalism is a more marketable rhetorical product than is realism, especially when “selling” a wartime agenda. o’shaughnessy (1999) suggests that political marketing is done through consumer-based, market research-oriented strategies. an examination of public opinion shows that the bush administration was simply “selling” back policies that the american people already appeared to desire. in an april 2002 cbs news poll, 73% of americans approved of u.s. military attacks against nations in which it believes terrorists are hiding. a december 2001 newsweek poll found 48% of americans favoring increased u.s. pressure on middle eastern nations to expand democracy despite the possibility of islamic fundamentalists rising to power. finally, an october 2001 pew research center poll determined that 61% of americans believed the nation should be “very much involved in solving international problems” (www.pollingreport.com). public opinion polls also indicate the strength of the bush administration at the time of this rhetorical transition from realism to a marketing-friendly liberalism. an october 2001 cbs news/new york times poll found that 88% of americans approved 40 of the administration’s handling of the september 11 terrorist attacks. the same percentage of respondents in an april 2002 cbs news poll approved of the nation’s military operation in afghanistan. most striking is an april 2002 nbc news / wall street journal poll in which 94% of respondents said the nation’s war on terrorism had been successful (www.pollingreport.com). clearly, there was potential for the administration to market and sell its policies, for consumers were already open to the product. selling the policy rested with substituting liberal rhetoric for realist rhetoric. interestingly, the marketing model and the use of political rhetoric to “sell” a foreign policy agenda seem tailor-made for liberalism. morgenthau, realism’s heaviest hitter, warned in 1951 that “the mistaken identification of press, radio, polls, and congress with public opinion has had a distorting as well as paralyzing influence upon american foreign policy. it has induced the government to pursue mistaken policies, which might not have been pursued but for a mistaken notion of what public opinion demanded” (1951, 232). jeffrey w. legro and andrew moravcsik (2001, 80) similarly suggest that “balance-of-power calculations are often trumped by imperatives rising from economic globalization, political democratization, particular belief systems, and the role of international law and institutions.” this could be a direct result of the marketing approach to political rhetoric and policy. in emphasizing freedom, democracy, and institutions, liberalism is a more appealing product than the sometimes harsh and brutish realism, whose traits are more difficult to market to a public that, as cohen (1995) suggests, is traditionally uninformed about and uninterested in foreign policy. from a marketing perspective, if people know little about a product, they are likely to buy it if it appeals to their emotions and values. hence, liberalism is the more marketable product. legro and moravcsik suggest that one reason the early bush administration gravitated toward realism and not liberalism is that the administration “does indeed place a greater emphasis on accumulating and wielding military power. while the threat perception of the bush team is based largely on ideology, it remains skeptical of strategy and tactics not closely linked to military dominance (2001, 81).” the attraction to realism is significant, they 41 argue, because of the two major pillars of early bush administration policy: the powell doctrine and missile defense. after the events of september 11, the administration’s rhetoric shifted from a realist emphasis upon accumulating military power to a liberal concern with moral truth, shared values, liberty, open societies, and achieving and preserving peace. as bush said in his remarkably liberal speech at west point, “when it comes to the common rights and needs of men and women, there is no clash of civilizations” (bush 2002a). the rhetorical record speaks for itself. president bush the realist declared within the first five months of his administration that “i’m a straightforward person [and] represent my country’s interests in a very straightforward way” (legro, 2001, 81). he also spoke of backing out of international accords, ignoring treaties, adhering to the balance of power, and playing power politics. on the campaign trail three years later, bush the realist was talking like bush the liberal institutionalist: to win the war on terror, america must work with allies and lead the world with clarity. and that is exactly what we are doing. the flags of 64 nations fly at u.s. central command headquarters in tampa, florida, representing coalition countries that are working openly with us in the war on terror. dozens more are helping quietly in important ways. today, all 26 nato nations have personnel either in iraq, afghanistan, or both. america's allies are standing with us in the war on terror, and we are grateful. (bush 2004b) realism is a power-based theory that recognizes an occasionally brutal, yet ongoing competition for power. liberalism, on the other hand, can be marketed as a values-based approach to international relations reflective of american idealism and the spread of democratic peace. perhaps boyd martin (1948, 295) put it best: liberalism “accepts the contention that progress lies in the free exercise, so far as such freedom does no injury to others, of individual energy. to increase personal, civil, social, and economic liberty of the individual has been a major tenet of liberalism.” 42 liberalism fits into o’shaughnessy’s political marketing concept of determining the customers “latent wants, the underlying desires that they cannot articulate fully (1999, 728).” rhetoric is the vehicle for tapping into the “latent wants” of the public, and for the bush administration, international relations liberalism is the product of choice. notes 1. the speeches are: “republican party nomination acceptance address” from august 3, 2000; “inaugural address” from january 20, 2001; “remarks to students and faculty at national defense university” from may 1, 2001; “state of the union address” from january 29, 2002; “graduation speech at west point” from june 1, 2002; “address to the american enterprise institute” from february 26, 2003; “address on iraq policy at whitehall palace” in london from november 19, 2003; “address to the united nations” from september 19, 2004, and “homeland security and the presidential agenda” from october 18, 2004. the single writing is an excerpt from bush (1999). no speeches were chosen from the time period directly after the terrorist attacks of september 11, 2001 because they were based upon emotional appeals and rhetoric as opposed to political appeals and foreign policy rhetoric. nonetheless, the significance of that tragedy will not be ignored in this study. 2. the “realists” in international relations theory examined in this study are e.h. carr, charles krauthammer, hans morgenthau, john j. mearsheimer, stephen m. walt, and kenneth waltz. 3. the “liberal internationalists” in international relations theory examined in this study are michael doyle, boyd a. martin, john stuart mill, edward morse, and john m. owen. references algosaibi, ghazi a. r. 1965. “the theory of international relations: hans j. morgenthau and his critics.” background 8 (february): 221–256. andrade, lydia, and garry young. 1996. “presidential agenda setting: influences on the emphasis of foreign policy.” political research quarterly 49 (september): 591–605. bidwell, percy. 1946. “ideals in american foreign policy.” international affairs (royal institute of international affairs) 22 (october): 479–487. burchill, scott. 2001. theories of international relations. houndsmills, england: palgrave macmillan. bush, george w. 1999. a charge to keep: my journey to the white house. san francisco: william morrow and company. ________. 2003a. “address on iraq policy at whitehall palace.” london, england: november 19. retrieved march 1, 2005, from http://www.whitehouse.gov. ________. 2003b. “address to the american enterprise institute.” washington d.c.: february 26. retrieved march 1, 2005, from http://www.presidentialrhetoric.com. 43 ________. 2004a. “address to the united nations.” new york, ny: september 21. retrieved march 1, 2005, from http://www.presidentialrhetoric.com. ________. 2002a. “graduation speech at west point.” west point, ny: june 1. retrieved april 5, 2006, from http://www.whitehouse.gov. ________. 2004b. “homeland security and the presidential agenda.” marlton, nj: october 18. retrieved april 7, 2006, from http://www.presidential rhetoric.com. ________. 2001a. “inaugural address.” washington d.c.: january 20. retrieved march 1, 2005, from http://www.presidentialrhetoric.com. ________. 2001b. “remarks to students and faculty at national defense university.” washington, dc: may 1. retrieved april 6, 2006, from http://www.whitehouse.gov. ________. 2000. “republican party nomination acceptance address.” philadelphia, pa: august 3. retrieved march 1, 2005, from http://www.presidentialrhetoric.com. ________. 2002b. “state of the union address.” washington d.c.: january 29. retrieved march 1, 2005, from http://www.presidentialrhetoric.com. cohen, jeffrey e. 1995. “presidential rhetoric and the public agenda.” american journal of political science 39 (february): 87–106. doyle, michael w. 1983. “kant, liberal legacies, and foreign affairs.” in international politics: enduring concepts and contemporary issues, eds. robert j. art and robert jervis. new york: pearson, longman. ________. 1986. “liberalism and world politics.” american political science review 80 (december): 1151–1169. gronbeck, bruce e. 1995. “the presidency in the age of secondary orality.” in beyond the rhetorical presidency, ed. martin j. medhurst. college station, tx: texas a & m press. harriot, howard h. 1993. “the dilemmas of democracy and foreign policy.” journal of peace research 30 (may): 219–226. jervis, robert. 2003. “explaining the bush doctrine.” in international politics: enduring concepts and contemporary issues, eds. robert j. art and robert jervis. new york: pearson, longman. krauthammer, charles. 1999. “a world imagined.” the new republic, march 15, 22–25. legro, jeffrey w. and andrew moravcsik. 2001. “faux realism.” foreign policy (july–august): 80–82. lilleker, darren g. and jennifer lees-marshment. 2005. “introduction: rethinking political party behaviour.” in political marketing: a comparative perspective, eds. lilleker and lees-marshment. manchester, uk: manchester university press. martin, boyd a. 1948. “liberalism.” the western political quarterly 1 (september): 295–297. mearsheimer, john j. 1994–95. “the false promise of international institutions.” international security 19 (winter): 5–49. mill, john stuart 1859. on liberty. in on liberty and other writings, ed. stefan collini. cambridge, uk: cambridge university press. morgenthau, hans j. 1951. in defense of the national interest. new york: alfred a. knopf. 44 ________. 1972. “six principles of political realism.” in international politics: enduring concepts and contemporary issues, eds. robert j. art and robert jervis. new york: pearson, longman. morse, edward l. 1970. “the transformation of foreign policies: modernization, interdependence, and externalization.” world politics 22 (april): 371–393. noonan, peggy. 2005. “way too much god.” wall street journal, january 21, p. a8. o’shaughnessy, nicholas. 1999. “political marketing and democracy.” in handbook of political marketing, bruce i. newman. thousand oaks, ca: sage. owen, john m. 1994. “how liberalism produces democratic peace.” international security 19 (autumn): 87–125. pollingreport.com. http://www.pollingreport.com. stuckey, mary e. 1996. “presidential rhetoric in political time.” in the theory and practice of political communication research, ed. mary e. stuckey. albany: state university of new york press. tulis, jeffrey k. 1995. “revising the rhetorical presidency.” in beyond the rhetorical presidency, ed. martin j. medhurst. college station, tx: texas a & m press. walt, stephen m. 1997. “the progressive power of realism.” the american political science review 4 (december): 931–934. waltz, kenneth. 1979. theory of international politics. new york: mcgraw-hill. microsoft word volume15.doc commonwealth: a journal of political science  volume 15, number 2  september 2009  2009 ppsa/lorl, pa house of reps. issn 0890-2410 the “greening” of local governments arthur m. holst philadelphia water department local governments have taken the lead in “greening” in the united states. urban, suburban, and rural areas each green themselves through practices specific to their own level of development. while local communities do not enjoy equal amounts of public support or funding for greening, they can choose to contribute more or less to these efforts. in taking “direct” or “indirect” actions internally or externally, the seemingly piecemeal efforts of local governments to promote greening can lead to a significantly greener nation as a whole. nvironmental protection has become a major public policy concern in the united states. the salience of this issue has varied over time, however, as have approaches to dealing with it, particularly at the national level of government. now that environmental consciousness has become part of mainstream political discourse, a long-term solution to the problem of environmental health has arrived as well. this solution is not some new technology but a new leader in addressing the problem: local governments rather than the federal government. local governments have several unique capabilities that make them especially adept at dealing with environmental problems and finding innovative and sometimes even groundbreaking remedies. why local governments? the growing recognition by scientists of adverse global climate change has provoked a blizzard of opinions both for and against governmental intervention to address the problem. regrettably, the federal government has been immobilized by these clashing viewpoints. ensuring a healthy environment while also meeting the nation’s economic and energy needs is such a daunting and divisive task that the federal government has effectively swept the problem under the proverbial rug. fortunately, municipalities have a growing interest in achieving a more effective policy balance. in the absence of coherent national policy, they are realizing that they can achieve their goals e 90 the “greening” of local governments through many piecemeal local actions rather than wait for a comprehensive federal plan that may never materialize (verchick 2003, 1). politicians are the middlemen between citizens and polluters, but it is local politicians who are achieving the most policy change. the national association of counties (naco) met in washington d.c. in 2008 to discuss environmental policy. its conference “sought to provide answers for counties looking to take the first steps to mitigating climate change and adapting to it, and to show that counties have already taken a leadership role in paving the way to a world in which ‘climate change’ does not spell ‘doomsday’” (sprow). underscoring the new role that local governments play at the forefront of the environmental movement, naco cited many inspiring examples of counties that have devised policies for ameliorating a wide variety of environmental problems (sprow). thus, when public school buses in pennsylvania’s suburbs can be re-engineered to run on bio-diesel fuel, no one runs to congress with a bill in hand. instead, local officials are petitioned. “local governments have begun to see that thinking and acting locally not only improve local conditions, but also contribute substantially to national and international environmental goals” (verchick 2003, 1). american communities have certain advantages in trying to promote more environmental responsibility, but they also face obstacles. for instance, physical settings differ widely across the nation. previously “greened” or undeveloped regions require action much different from what is appropriate for “brown” regions. urban, suburban, and rural areas each green themselves through practices specific to their own level of development. consequently, different approaches to greening are needed. “the influence of local authority is particularly great in urban areas, now home to nearly half the world's population,” but cities “are often the main contributors to environmental damage” (verchick 2003, 2). on this point, bonnie hulkower (2008), a biologist and environmental planner for the u.s. army corps of engineers, cites new york mayor michael bloomberg’s effort to turn the big apple into the “green apple” by reducing the size of its formidable environmental footprint. yet, local communities do not enjoy equal amounts of public support or funding for greening. as with higher levels of government, they can choose to contribute more or less resources toward local greening. arthur m. holst 91 similarly, consumer advocates, environmental groups, labor unions, political parties, lobbies, and other advocacy groups within the immediate geographic area can generate varying amounts of public pressure both for and against environmental action. because local politicians best understand local environmental problems and because they are the officials closest and most accountable to their constituents, they are naturally the ones most likely to affect the kind of change sought by the local electorate. all these factors must be considered when local communities develop and implement environmental protection policy. greening strategies “greening,” also known as “environmental stewardship,” is defined by the united states environmental protection agency (2009) as “the responsibility for environmental quality shared by all those whose actions affect the environment.” how can local governments take responsibility for reducing the environmental impacts of its operations? local governments can create greener municipalities in two different ways: directly and indirectly (see diagram 1 on the following page). local governments can create greener municipalities in two different ways: directly and indirectly. a local governing body takes direct action when it reduces the environmental footprint of its own operations. it might, for example, use environmentally friendly lighting in its office buildings or makes the delivery of its water supply to constituents more energy efficient. such action is the most immediate and apparent form of environmentalism practiced by municipalities because it involves the local governments themselves physically changing how they operate. this form of governmental action is direct in the sense that it directly reduces the negative impact of the local government’s operations on the surrounding environment, even though it may not necessarily affect directly the local citizenry. indirect action includes governmental measures that do not directly influence the impact a municipality has on its surrounding environment but instead establish a context in which greener practices will take root in the local community. such action is normally manifested in regulatory structures that promote or demand environmental awareness on the part of individuals and organizations. indirect action is largely influenced by the opinions of those public and private sector actors most likely to be affected by such measures. this kind of action is effective only to the 92 the “greening” of local governments extent that it affects agents not formally part of the local government itself. many local governments throughout the nation make both direct and indirect environmental policies. this article will focus primarily upon those municipalities regarded as leaders in developing policies for protecting the local environment. diagram 1 local government greening strategies to understand direct action more fully, a distinction must be drawn between internal and external green actions (igas and egas). when greening their own operations, local governments can do so in ways that either involve direct interaction with constituents or support such interactions. an iga is a direct initiative whereby a government establishes green practices or obtains capital for its own use in ways consistent with green principles. an example would be a municipality choosing to use the kind of environmentally friendly lighting technology mentioned above rather than a less environmentally conscious alternative. such initiatives generally involve the operating costs of governing. by contrast, an ega occurs whenever a governing body arthur m. holst 93 provides goods or services to the public in a way that adheres to green principles. an example would be the greener water delivery system cited above. these initiatives normally involve programs and infrastructure with which citizens have contact. taking direct action florida’s miami-dade county has been implementing igas since 1992. a “resource conservation committee” brings together representatives from different government departments to identify ways to use the county’s resources in a more environmentally protective manner. the committee promotes environmentally friendly purchasing and use policies, particularly for environmentally dangerous custodial products such as solvents, wood preservatives, aerosol sprays, moth repellants, air fresheners, and cleaners and disinfectants. county buildings have been retrofitted with low-flow toilets and faucets, waterefficient washers and leak repairs, and energy-efficient lighting, heating, ventilation, and air conditioning. these improvements have saved the county about 55 million gallons of water and 17 million kilowatt hours of electricity per year, which equates to about 10,440 tons of carbon dioxide gas that the county has avoided producing. miami-dade has also been greening its motor vehicle fleet in recent years. a 2003 resolution called for a 3% to 5% reduction in fleet carbon dioxide emissions annually, with the goal of a 20% reduction in emissions over the course of five years. the county has also reduced carbon dioxide emissions by thousands of tons through the use of environmentally conscious purchasing specifications, tighter departmental control of operations, new technology, a moratorium on suv use, and a doubling of the number of “hybrid” vehicles in the fleet from 281 to 413 to (hefty 2006). chicago, illinois, (cook county) also is greening internally through its purchasing policies. currently focused on purchasing recycled and recyclable goods for the county, local officials intend to set minimum standards for recycled content, thereby achieving the epa “energy star” certification as well as meeting the federal energy management program’s “product energy efficiency recommendations” (quigley 2005). they are also creating “green teams” to help facilitate environmental initiatives across the county. in the course of examining information flow between departments, these teams watch for environmental problems and opportunities to go green (quigley 2005). 94 the “greening” of local governments igas such as these not only lower pollution levels in general but also set an example for the public and private sectors to promote a more environmentally responsible community. egas in cook county are continuously being implemented in a variety of government services. the county is seeking alternatives to biologically harmful road salt while making the roads themselves greener by reclaiming scrap tires for rubberized asphalt in highway paving projects (quigley 2005). similarly, cook county’s courts are saving energy and resources by shifting toward paperless communication. they are also considering whether to require that all court documents be submitted on recycled, double-sided pages or, alternatively, that they be filed electronically (quigley 2005). public buses in seattle, washington (king county), are being run on a bio-diesel fuel blend (novey 2007). seattle is also installing natural drainage systems that account for an 11% reduction in the city’s impervious street surface area (sierra club 2006). iredell county, north carolina, requires natural lighting and ventilation in new school construction. these systems not only reduce costs for lighting and air conditioning but also decrease absentee rates by increasing air quality. egas promote more community involvement than do igas because egas encourage constituents to use green services offered by local governments rather than just watch these governments green their own organizations. taking indirect action municipalities increasingly use legal action to adopt and enforce green-focused legislation. for example, local officials in cook county, illinois, have enacted a “green buildings ordinance” that requires all future construction to meet leadership in energy and environmental design (leed) certification standards. they are also considering raising the requirements further to meet the more stringent silver rating (quigley 2005). austin, texas, has adopted a “climate change protection plan” that will require all buildings in the city to run entirely on renewable energy sources by 2012 (guerrieri 2008). in pennsylvania, the private advocacy group pennfuture has offered free legal advice and representation to individuals, organizations, and local governments promoting environmental protection (pennfuture 2004). the group arthur m. holst 95 joined with citizens and other organizations to prevent the mayor of pittsburgh from authorizing strip mining along the city’s largest area of undeveloped land. it also filed suit when a power plant in greene county, pennsylvania, violated state and national clean air standards. whether initiated by government or by the private sector, legal action is the most authoritative kind of indirect action that local officials can take because it demands action on the part of those being sued. although legal action is the only kind of indirect action local governments can take that demands a formal response, economic action can also be an effective force in promoting the greening of local communities. economic action involves providing both the private and public sector with financial incentives for greening and disincentives for polluting. it also includes funding private organizations that promote greening. groups such as pennfuture thus collect millions of dollars in grants and assistance from governments, which they use to enable citizens to do the greening themselves. green building incentives are appearing across the united states, especially in cities and particularly with regard to green roof construction. portland, oregon, offers tax credits for reduced energy consumption, green building, recycling, renewable energy use, and cleaner fuel projects (guerrieri 2008). the municipality also offers density incentives as part of a “floor area ratio bonus option” for developers who install environmentally friendly roofing materials. san francisco provides a speedy application process for installing solar power devices, and it offers help with design and installation (guerrieri 2008). chicago provides $5,000 grants for planning and installing green roofs (guerrieri 2008). it is also pursuing innovative tax policies that promote greening, such as a new property tax classification for leed buildings. taxes on new vehicle purchases normally are based upon the number of wheels a vehicle has rather than upon its weight. because weight is normally correlated with carbon emissions, however, chicago is planning to base the tax and vehicle registration fee on weight alone (quigley 2005). municipalities prefer economic actions such as those cited here because they use incentives rather than commands. economic action is also more affordable than direct investment in the short-term. social action involves the use of various communications media to create awareness and promote action on environmental issues among 96 the “greening” of local governments citizens and businesses. although these efforts are the least powerful of the three types of indirect action, they can still be effective. for instance, local school systems are increasingly becoming involved in stimulating environmental consciousness. in traverse city, michigan, glen lake high school participated in “focus of the nation,” a program that visits schools across the country to teach students about global warming and to promote green ideas (foster 2008). schools in prince george county, maryland, have begun incorporating environmental education into their curricula. environmental concepts are being introduced into students’ classes by such methods as including environmentally relevant terms on vocabulary lists and debating the severity of global warming in social studies courses (carter 2007). local governments are also involved in promoting environmental awareness. the leed rating system is a national code, but municipalities such as chicago are using it to showcase greening within their jurisdictions. social action might be the least authoritative means of indirect greening, but it creates effective social incentives for encouraging people to be more environmentally responsible rather than forcing them to that end. better together the seemingly piecemeal efforts of local governments to promote greening can lead to a significantly greener nation as a whole. if local governments start working together—forming a vast network of knowledge and expertise in going green—a sustainable environment is achievable. the municipalities discussed here have developed remarkable strategies for dealing with environmental problems specific to themselves. because these strategies would not necessarily be as effective if pursued by other municipalities, broad national plans likely would not be effective. that does not mean, however, that none of the igas and egas employed by one local government can not be used effectively by another. while the tactics identified here are impressive, they are generally viewed as solitary, isolated cases. by looking at greening strategies only in this narrow way, we risk overlooking possibilities for broader applications of them. many localities face similar environmental problems, even though they may be far apart from one another geographically. it is crucial that local governments capitalize on these kinds of similarities. the speed of local government greening would increase arthur m. holst 97 rapidly if municipalities adopted greening strategies that proved to be effective in other jurisdictions facing similar problems. fortunately, organizations are emerging to address this need. iclei-local governments for sustainability is a network of local governments across the globe that promotes sustainable development (iclei-local governments for sustainability 2008). among the many resources that this group offers to its members is a database that includes information about model green programs. it also helps to coordinate programs that advance environmental protection. by hosting an international conference in may of 2008 in santa rosa, california, to identify and discuss goals, the iclei has helped municipalities to develop their own agendas and plans for action. more than a thousand municipalities around the world are iclei members, including new york, los angeles, chicago, denver, atlanta, and miami (iclei-local governments for sustainability 2008). the national environmental training center for small communities offers resources geared toward local governments of communities with small populations. it provides educational materials and training as well as consulting services (training center for small communities 2007). state and national agencies can also play this kind of role. the bureau of recreation and conservation of the pennsylvania department of conservation and natural resources (2008) offers support and consultation for greening to local governments in pennsylvania. the united states environmental protection agency (epa) is probably the largest body of this type. clean air counts is a project of various local governments in northeastern illinois that have banded together in an effort to save energy and reduce carbon dioxide emissions. illinois green fleets is another program that spans the private and governmental sectors. it provides recognition and other marketing opportunities for groups that use “clean, green, domestic, renewable american fuel vehicles.” the chicago area clean cities coalition is yet another multisector group that promotes greening by coordinating local actors. best workplaces for commuters recognizes and supports employers in cook county who provide benefits for commuting employees. cook county is also actively developing environmentally conscious purchasing agreements between local governments for the procurement of recycled products and other goods. similarly, miami-dade county is making “florida green local government certification” available to any local government that can meet strict greening standards. programs like these 98 the “greening” of local governments save money and foster cooperative working relationships among local governments. they also make a significant contribution to environmental protection. conclusion local municipalities no longer can rely solely on the federal and state governments for promoting green initiatives. the environmental movement is now knocking on the doors of local governments and it is up to local officials to answer the call for protecting the environment. local government is well-equipped to grapple effectively with environmental problems because “local government resides closest to ecological effects, it holds the greatest potential for democracy, it is capable of flexible and innovative implementation, and it has the potential to protect local constituents from distributional imbalances on the regional scale” (verchick 2003, 2). the strategies identified in this article are just a few of the many actions taken by localities to green themselves from the ground up. from directly making their own operations more environmentally friendly to indirectly stimulating their constituents to be more environmentally responsible, local governments have been given the “green light.” as a result, they are traveling full speed ahead on the road to a greener america. references pennsylvania department of conservation and natural resources. 2008. http://www.dcnr.state.pa.us/info/ataglance/fsbrc.aspx. carter, dennis. 2007. “high point students bring shades of ‘green’ to county schools.” http://www.gazette.net/stories/020708/prinsch 170052_32358.shtml. foster, cymbre. 2008. “focus on global warming: high school students lead the way.” traverse city (mi) record-eagle. http://www.record-eagle.com/features/local_ story_029100038.html. guerrieri, tony. 2008. “more cities offer incentives to build ‘green’.” environmental synopsis, 9(1): 3. hefty, nichole. 2006. “greening local government: the miami-dade experience.” presented at the annual meeting of the american society for public administration, denver. hulkower, bonnie. 2008. “5 u.s. local & state government officials putting the environment first.” http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/11/top-us-green-govern ment-leaders.php. http://www.dcnr.state.pa.us/info/ataglance/fsbrc.aspx http://www.gazette.net/stories/020708/prinsch 170052_32358.shtml http://www.record-eagle.com/features/local_ story_029100038.html http://www.record-eagle.com/features/local_ story_029100038.html http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/11/top-us-green-govern ment-leaders.php http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/11/top-us-green-govern ment-leaders.php arthur m. holst 99 iclei-local governments for sustainability. 2008. http://www.iclei.org/index.php?id= global-about-iclei. novey, joelle. 2007. “greening local fleets.” http://www.coopamerica.org/pubs/caq/ articles/summer2007greeninglocalfleets.cfm. pennfuture. 2004. greening pennsylvania's economy: annual report 2003–04. quigley, mike. 2005. “greening cook county.” www.csu.edu/cercldocuments/greening cookcounty. sierra club. 2006. building better ii: a guide to america’s best new development projects [brochure]. san francisco, california. sprow, maria. 2009. “local government turns green.” http://www.county.org/ resources/library/county_mag/ county/196/2.html. training center for small communities. 2007. http://www.nesc.wvu.edu/netcsc/. united states environmental protection agency. 2009. “environmental stewardship.” www.epa.gov/stewardship/. verchick, robert r.m. 2003. “why the global environment needs local government: lessons from the johannesburg summit.” urban lawyer. 35(3): 1-19. http://ssrn.com/abstract=483202. http://www.iclei.org/index.php?id= global-about-iclei http://www.iclei.org/index.php?id= global-about-iclei http://www.coopamerica.org/pubs/caq/ http://www.coopamerica.org/pubs/caq/articles/summer2007greeninglocalfleets.cfm http://www.csu.edu/cercldocuments/greening cookcounty http://www.csu.edu/cercldocuments/greening cookcounty http://www.county.org/ resources/library/county_mag/ county/196/2.html http://www.county.org/ resources/library/county_mag/ county/196/2.html http://www.nesc.wvu.edu/netcsc/ microsoft word volume 14.doc commonwealth: a journal of political science  volume 14, number 1  december 2008 special policy issue on public health  2008 ppsa/lorl, pa house of reps. issn 0890-2410 credentialing of the public health work force bernard d. goldstein, university of pittsburgh abstract pennsylvania ranks last nationally among all states in the size of its public health workforce per capita. more than a doubling of the current workforce would be needed for pennsylvania to achieve even the national average. for the foreseeable future pennsylvania will depend even more heavily than other states on having a highly skilled public health workforce to overcome our shortages in numbers. in this paper, i will discuss the efforts to at long last develop a core credential for the public health workforce and the potential impact this will have on ensuring a highly competent public health work force capable of responding to the public health challenges facing our state and our nation. i will also consider the relationship between public health and medicine including comparing the approaches toward credentialing. public health is virtually the only professional field without a credential. after many years of committees, task forces, and a recommendation from the surgeon general, the national board of public health examiners (nbphe) was incorporated in december 2005. its volunteer board has seats allocated to a broad range of participating public health organizations. the first credentialing examination in august 2008, will test for knowledge of core and cross-cutting educational competencies that are relevant to the practice of public health. the driving forces leading to credentialing in public health include: 1) heightened recognition of the importance of the public health work force; 2) an increase in both the absolute number and percent of public health graduates who have no other credential; 3) increase in the availability of public health graduate education throughout the country; 4) societal demand for credentialing and for professional accountability; and 5) improved delineation of the core and cross-cutting educational competencies underlying public health practice. 138 credentialing of the public health work force introduction examination of the potential effectiveness of public policy requires consideration of the workforce that designs and carries out that policy. a notable aspect of the public health workforce that distinguishes it from virtually all other health or other professional fields is its lack of a formal credential in the general field of public health. i briefly describe the history and rationale for the new and long-awaited development of a national public health credential, as well as its potential impact on pennsylvania. the first core credentialing examination in the field of public health is being offered in august 2008, by the national board of public health examiners (nbphe). successful examinees among the close to 900 registrants for this new credential will receive the certificate in public health (cph), attesting to their competency in the core disciplines in public health (gebbie et al. 2007; goldstein 2008; national board of public health examiners 2008). of the applicants, 6% are from pennsylvania – only new york and california have a larger contingent among the examinees. among the examinees, the largest employer group is government public health agencies. the new core public health credential has developed after literally decades of discussion and debate. following a call by the u.s. surgeon general in the late 1980s, both the american public health association (apha) and the association of schools of public health (asph) developed working groups to explore credentialing (akhter 2001; sommer 2000; association of schools of public health 2000). similarly, the u.s. centers for disease control identified credentialing as among the pathways to strengthen the public health workforce (governmental public health implementation team 2004). a key figure throughout the more recent discussions has been dr. charles mahan. dr. mahan, the original president of nbphe, has a broad background as former commissioner of health of the state of florida; former president of the american state and territorial health officials (astho); and former dean of the university of south florida school of public health (mahan and malecki 2004; gebbie et al. 2007). his ability to bridge the gap between academia and public health practice has been crucial in moving the nbphe forward, particularly as there has been tension between the public health practice and academic communities. bernard d. goldstein 139 public health is not unusual in having tensions between practitioners and educators. the perception that academics are primarily interested in furthering research rather than responding to practical problems in the field extends to every academic program leading to practice (see, for example, a recent article in solicitor’s journal about the need for law school to be relevant to legal practice: roberts 2008). a 1988 institute of medicine report on “the future of public health” specifically enjoined schools of public health to be more responsive to the needs of public health practitioners (institute of medicine 1988). the result has been reluctance among the public health practitioner organizations to allow academia to take the lead in the credentialing of public health practice. this tension was resolved with the decision to move forward in developing a credential reflecting competency in the core and crosscutting disciplines that are the basis for the practice of public health, but not in the practice competencies themselves. the five key public health academic and practice organizations all participate in the nbphe, including nomination of board members. these are: the american public health association (apha); the association of prevention teaching and research (aptr); the association of schools of public health (asph); the association of state and territorial health officials (astho); and the national association of county and city health officials (naccho). eight additional board members have been selected by the nbphe to ensure diversity of representation, including other major public health organizations. seven of the current 20 members are now or recently have been members of state or local government public health departments, including six who have headed such departments. the two board members from pennsylvania are dr. walter tsou, former health commissioner of philadelphia and former president of the american public health association, and myself. the first nbphe meeting was held in december 2005. the national board of medical examiners (nbme), based in philadelphia, is assisting in preparation of the examination. the goal of the nbphe is: to ensure that students and graduates from schools and programs of public health accredited by the council on education for public health (ceph) have mastered the knowledge and skills relevant to contemporary public health practice (national board of public health examiners 2008). 140 credentialing of the public health work force the sole focus of the nbphe is on the core and cross-cutting educational competencies central to public health. the historic compromise that resulted in the nbphe means that for at least the near future it will remain narrowly focused. an exceptionally important impact of the nbphe will be the enhancement of continuing education (ce) in public health spurred by the examination and by recertification (allegrante 2001). we anticipate that recertification will occur every ten years through both continuing education and re-examination. among the ce efforts related to the examination is a study guide prepared by the asph (association of schools of public health 2008). other organizations involved with the nbphe, as well as hrsa-sponsored public health training centers, are also planning programs to help study for the examination. an important challenge faced by the nbphe in accomplishing its goals is the issue of credentialing the current federal, state, and local health agency work force, many of whom are not eligible for the cph by virtue of their not having received a graduate degree from a cephaccredited school or program. almost all of these individuals have a bachelor’s degree and have learned on the job. with the current broad availability of graduate education in public health, there seems to be no rationale that advanced public health education should not be a goal of anyone committed to a career in this complex and demanding field. some state and local public health department employees are specialists, sometimes with their own graduate degree, e.g., an expert on informatics or a hydrogeologist. such expertise is highly valuable and should be rewarded – but such specialists should not expect to be advanced to management positions without a broader grounding in public health achievable through graduate education to the master’s level. the role of workforce credentialing in the health professions health specialties, including public health, have at least some aspects of a guild – there is a body of specialized knowledge which must be mastered to function effectively. however, as with other modern professions such as law and engineering, entrance into health guilds is no longer through an apprentice system in which the first criterion is family kinship. instead, entrance occurs through the progressive demonstration of mastery of core elements of the profession. this mastery is bernard d. goldstein 141 demonstrated not only by graduation from an educational institution accredited to provide the core elements, but also by passing an examination testing mastery of the core elements. on-the-job education continues after credentialing in virtually all fields and is an important part of the professional development of the practitioner – there are few of us who would preferentially want our medical, dental, or legal case handled by someone who has just been licensed to practice medicine or dentistry, or has just passed the bar examination. the rapid pace of developments in virtually all modern professional disciplines has usually led to the requirement for re-credentialing based upon demonstration of continued mastery of core elements and the integration of newer information and competencies. my board certification in internal medicine (1969) and hematology (1971), both based upon required training in accredited programs and upon the passage of examinations, were received at times when no recertification was contemplated. since 1990, new recipients of either of these credentials must be recertified every ten years. i am more recently credentialed (1979) by the american board of toxicology which now requires recertification every five years – a process which helps me keep current with the field and comfortable in my credential. certain subspecialties related to public health do have credentialing examinations. among these are health educators, environmental sanitarians, and industrial hygienists. for each of these specialties there are educational tracks that proceed through schools of public health. but alternative educational pathways are possible to achieve candidacy. one example is the certified health education specialist (ches) which is administered by the national commission for health education certification, inc, headquartered in allentown, pennsylvania. the nchec granted its first credential for certified health education specialist (ches) in 1989. as of 2005, there were more than 12,000 ches holders nationwide (airhihenbuwa et al. 2005). of note has been the gradual transition from a highly controversial activity within the health education profession, to the current situation in which the majority of advertisements for health education jobs state that ches is preferred or required. the nchec statement of the benefits of certification applies very well to the nbphe (see table 1, page 142). 142 credentialing of the public health work force table 1: benefits of certification (adapted from: national commission for health education certification, 2002) voluntary professional certification programs establish a national standard. they differ from state and local certifications and registries in that the requirements do not vary from one locale to another. national certification benefits practitioners and the public in that it:  establishes a national standard  attests to the individual's knowledge and skills  assists employers in identifying qualified applicants  provides a sense of pride and accomplishment  promotes continued professional development  enhances the ability of the profession to accomplish its public mission receiving a credential has also been a pathway to achieving greater rewards for job performance. for example, the relatively new national teacher’s credential is now recognized by all states. many states and school districts provide additional benefits to teachers holding this credential, including higher salaries and an enhanced ability to move to a new school district without losing seniority (all star directories 2002). governmental agencies are also far more likely to provide support for continuing education or travel to a national meeting for those employees who are keeping up a job-related credential. why now? an obvious question is, after all of these years of discussion, why is it now time to develop a core public health credential? i suggest there are at least five reasons: bernard d. goldstein 143 1) change in the educational background of public health graduates the background of those receiving public health degrees has changed dramatically. at one time, schools of public health restricted admission to those who already had an advanced degree in medicine or another health field. this was liberalized over time to a matriculation requirement that specified either an advanced health degree or a minimum number of years in practice. currently, any such requirements have virtually disappeared. while no national statistics have been kept, there can be no question that the overwhelming majority of those completing graduate education in accredited schools and programs of public health now have no other certifiable credential beyond that of their mph degree. for example, only 20% of the university of pittsburgh graduate school of public health’s most recent matriculates had another degree, while in 1992 it was 50%. these graduates are younger and presumably will have more time in their careers than those who entered after first receiving a medical or other health degree. until now, they have been virtually alone among the graduates of academic health programs in not having a credential attesting to their mastery of the core competencies relevant to the practice of their health discipline. 2) increase in the opportunity to obtain graduate education in public health the increase in number of accredited schools and programs in public health in recent years has been phenomenal, outstripping that of virtually any other major academic health science field. during the past decade there has been a one-third increase in the number of accredited schools of public health to the current 42 and more than a doubling of accredited programs in public health to the current 69. further increase in programs and schools is anticipated along with a continued increase in enrollment. for example, student enrollment in the university of pittsburgh gsph has increased from 400 to over 700 in the past decade. as a comparison, during this period there has been relatively little change in the number of new matriculates in american medical schools, and until the past three years, a significant decline in applicants. 144 credentialing of the public health work force 3) increasing awareness and complexities of public health challenges public health is in the midst of a transition. there is growing recognition of the need to improve the public health infrastructure, including development of a highly competent public health workforce (gebbie and turnock 2006; gebbie et al. 2002; baker et al. 2005). in the past it has largely been an unseen discipline, responsible primarily for preventing adverse health events through actions often grouped under the heading of sanitary engineering. winslow, a leader in early 20th century public health and the founder of the yale school of public health, was fond of pointing out that a grateful patient cured of a disease is a commonality in medicine, but it would be unusual to express gratitude to the public health expert for your wellness. however, today there are many public health issues that again have caught the public’s attention. these include emerging infectious diseases such as sars and avian flu, the threats posed by bioterrorism, the obesity epidemic, the health of aging “baby boomers,” the prevention of chronic diseases, and the health impacts of global climate change. for each of these, the public is aware of the need for an expert workforce to address the potential for major societal impacts that extend far beyond individual health effects. there are other increasingly recognized societal issues that can be readily approached through the wide lens of public health. among them are health disparities between our majority and minority populations; the growing number of uninsured; the health and societal impacts of urban sprawl; and the broad spectrum of global health and sustainability issues. equity is at the heart of many of these issues, some of which, such as environmental justice, are framed in language that specifically recognizes that societal inequality is a root cause. all are issues that extend across usual disciplinary boundaries and that require a systems approach. cross-disciplinary systems approaches characterize public health, in contrast to the reductionism that is at the core of subspecialty medicine. 4) emergence of a public health core curriculum the nbphe examination will rely on the core and cross-cutting competency processes developed by the asph, the council of linkages, and others (association of schools of public health 2005; calhoun et al. bernard d. goldstein 145 2008; council on linkages between academia and public health practice 2005; moser 2008). the agreement among the major public health organizations that led to the creation of the nbphe is built upon an agreement that there are core educational credentials that underlay the practice of public health. this recognition has developed through multiple complementary approaches by the various academic and practice organizations in the field. the council on education in public health (ceph), the accrediting body in the field, requires that there be full courses in five core public health areas. these are epidemiology, biostatistics, environmental health, behavioral and community health sciences, and health policy and management. determining what constitutes a core course suitable for accreditation has led to much discussion among academic and practice organizations. the ceph board is itself made up of representatives from apha and asph as well as others chosen to represent specific interests (council on education for public health 2008). determining core competencies upon which core coursework should be based is a common issue in accreditation of educational institutions. in 2001, the asph embarked on a major effort to develop core competencies in the five core disciplines. core curricular activities have increasingly represented collaboration between academia and public health practice. particularly notable has been the core competency activities of the council of linkages, a coalition of representatives from 17 public health organizations that work to further academic/practice collaboration, particularly in workforce training and competency activities (council on linkages between academia and public health practice 2005). the nbphe test writers took into account all of these core curriculum activities pertinent to their area of test development. in addition, the examination will test for a variety of crosscutting competencies that were added following the recommendations of an institute of medicine committee (institute of medicine 2003). these cross-cutting competencies are: communications and informatics, diversity and culture, leadership, public health biology, professionalism, program planning, and systems thinking. one impact of the nbphe will be to provoke continued discussion and improvement of these educational competencies. inevitably, those who believe that their area of emphasis has been inadequately covered in the examination will work to change the core curriculum and the core competencies on which the examination is based. as is clear from the 146 credentialing of the public health work force experience of physician educators, building a competency-based curriculum can be challenging but is worth the effort (albanese et al. 2008). 5) increased societal emphasis on professional accountability, including institutionalization of rewards based upon credentials professional accountability is a central aspect of modern society. work forces with almost any pretensions to a basic core of knowledge or a responsibility to the public have developed credentials that are based on the demonstration and maintenance of this knowledge and of a skill set. this pervasive societal demand for credentialing and for professional accountability inevitably has implications to the public health workforce, which has been virtually the only major health field without a central credentialing activity. the national organization for competency assurance (noca) is a national membership group of credentialing organizations that was formed in 1977. it has rapidly grown. its web site in june 2008 lists 90 credentialing organizations offering 212 credential programs (national organization for competency assurance 2007), mostly for workers in health professions. there are even more health credentials – for example, the american board of medical specialties, which consists of 24 medical/specialty certifying boards, is not a noca member. the importance of assurance and accountability in public health is also reinforced by a separate national movement under way to develop standards for accrediting of public health departments (public health accreditation board 2007). sixteen states, not including pennsylvania, have been funded to explore the accreditation process with a goal of developing criteria that will begin to be applied in 2011. as pennsylvania has relatively few local health departments, the accreditation activity is of somewhat lesser importance to our commonwealth than to other states. the two activities of credentialing and accreditation are complementary – issues related to the quality of the workforce, which are central to credentialing, are also important to the criteria for accreditation of local health departments. bernard d. goldstein 147 the relationship between medicine and public health any consideration of the role of the public health workforce must take into account the fact that our country is far more oriented toward treatment than prevention of disease. various cost figures are used to attempt to describe the relative amounts spent on prevention versus treatment of disease, with treatment accounting for more than 90% in virtually all estimates. these estimates are complicated by the various definitions of prevention. an egregious example is that of a director of a national institute of health who defined heart transplantation as a preventive measure because it prevented heart failure (rall 1994). however, there is clarity and agreement that we are not achieving societal health goals. despite the highest per capita spending rate on health among all countries, we do not rank close to the best in usual metrics of health such as longevity, where we rank 47th (united states central intelligence agency 2008b), and infant mortality, where we rank 43rd (united states central intelligence agency 2008a). the amount of uninsured is over 40 million and continues to climb; and despite improvements in some areas, major health disparities remain between the disadvantaged and advantaged in our nation (agency for healthcare research and quality 2006). in considering the relationship between medicine and public health in achieving national health goals, it is important to note that there is some degree of overlap among all of the health professions. from a policy perspective, a key issue is to enable the overlap to function effectively in accomplishing beneficial societal goals while minimizing the negative aspects of redundancy and organizational conflict. at one extreme, medicine can be described as reactively responding to an individual who has already developed a specific disease, and public health as proactively providing for the wellness of populations. the standard world health organization definition that guides public health is: “health is a state of complete physical, mental and social well-being and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity” (world health organization 2008). note that in the discussion above i have used the term “medicine” very broadly to include all of the components of health care, including nursing, pharmacy, dentistry, etc. below i will define medicine more narrowly as those aspects of health care performed or directed by 148 credentialing of the public health work force physicians. i do so in order to consider the issue of credentialing by contrasting the requirements for physicians, and their role in society, with those of public health practitioners. the overlap between public health and medicine in achieving health occurs in many ways, ranging from the medical subspecialty of preventive medicine to the bedside actions of physicians who act to treat or inform patients in ways to prevent further problems. a useful classification of preventive activities considers primary prevention as an approach that totally avoids a risk of adverse health consequences (e.g., prevention of smoking); secondary prevention as early detection and intervention to prevent disease (e.g., the detection and treatment of asymptomatic high blood pressure); and tertiary prevention as preventing complications of the disease or its treatment. both medicine and public health are involved in all three types of prevention, with medicine focusing more on detection and treatment, and public health on primary prevention through policy as well as detection. an obvious overlap is in the example given for secondary prevention: detection of high blood pressure can occur in the physician’s office during a routine visit, or during outreach to populations in the community organized by medical groups, such as hospitals, or by public health authorities working alone or with community-based organizations. similarly, primary prevention of smoking can occur through a physician’s advice to a pre-teen, or through a broad panoply of public policy initiatives, legal activities, and outreach. the commonwealth’s department of health maintains an active program in alerting the public about the benefits of screening for high blood pressure as well as many other preventable diseases. the department of health has been particularly active in tobacco prevention and cessation, working with programs in each county. most of our state’s tobacco funding, however, goes to the medical research community in part because of erroneous testimony by the head of a major pennsylvania cancer institute that cigarette smoking was not preventable (snowbeck 2000). public health credentialing can also be considered in relation to physician credentialing. the latter occurs in a stepwise fashion that begins with passage of three different examinations, known as the u.s. medical licensure examinations, which are virtually required by every state before licensure. the first examination tests for knowledge of the basic science of medicine and is usually administered after the second bernard d. goldstein 149 year of medical school. the step 2 examination tests for knowledge expected to be obtained in the core clinical disciplines and is usually taken in the fourth year of medical school prior to graduation. the required step 3 examination is aimed at examining for skills necessary for clinical encounters. while there is some variation among states, virtually all require passage of steps 1, 2, and 3 or their equivalent (there are alternate examination pathways developed by osteopathic physicians and for foreign medical graduates). the new credentialing process in public health is comparable in some ways to step 1 of the usmle in that it tests for core knowledge on which public health practice is based. but, as it is not required for licensure, the nbphe credential is in other ways similar to voluntary board examinations in medical specialties. these provide evidence of knowledge in the field and facilitate recognition that can lead to further practice opportunities – but are not required for licensure to practice. as with the nbphe, eligibility to sit for specialty medical board examinations usually requires some element of accredited training, e.g., eligibility for the american board of family medicine certification examination includes an md or do degree from an accredited institution and at least three years of training in a family medicine residency program accredited by the accreditation council for graduate medical education. organized medicine is not unified in its consideration of public health. there is both a reaching out to schools of public health and an aggressive assertion that public health is a medical specialty. the nbme credentialing process has led to further exploration of the roles of medicine and public health in this country. the american medical association (ama) reacted negatively to the credentialing of public health professionals. at the ama’s 2007 annual meeting, a resolution was passed that specifically names the nbphe. the basic premise of the resolution is that public health is a specialty of medicine and that certifying public health practitioners would mislead the public into believing they are physicians (american medical association 2007). ironically, this resolution was passed within a few weeks of an institute of medicine report decrying the lack of physician involvement in public health (institute of medicine 2007; goldstein 2008). physicians do play an important role in public health, and those board certified by the american board of preventive medicine have been particularly valuable (institute of medicine 2007; goldstein 2008). but, 150 credentialing of the public health work force as discussed below, there are far too few whose training makes them eligible for board certification in prevention and public health to respond to our nation’s public health infrastructure needs. the role of public health in physician education has recently begun to be explored in a standard questionnaire given to medical school graduates (division of medical education 2007). the only specific question about “public health” in this questionnaire is subsumed under the heading of “evidence based medicine.” of the responding students, 32.1% stated that the instruction was inadequate. the only other question in the category of “evidence based medicine” receiving such a high level of inadequate as a response was the related category of “role of community health and social service agencies.” in essence, a third of medical school graduates felt that their training in public health or in community related activities was inadequate. further training of future physicians in public health is highly desirable, and there are efforts under way to accomplish this goal (institute of medicine 2007; maeshiro 2008; hernandez and munthali 2007). but the major determinant of the medical field chosen by a future physician is their residency program. unfortunately, residency programs in preventive medicine and public health represent a tiny fraction of total approved residencies. there are only about 130 approved preventive medicine residency positions, out of over 20,000 new residency slots each year nationally. even with this small number, many of the preventive medicine residency positions do not fill. in comparison, there are over 5,000 mph graduates each year. public health leaders have often considered medical education to be part of the problem. roemer (1986) has stated: “after one has seen the failures to provide public health leadership in country after country, province after province, one begins to regard training in clinical medicine, training to be a clinical physician, as more of an obstacle than a preparation for the role of public health leader.” to be effective in preparing for roles in public health, physicians need to transcend their medical education, not just supplement it. bernard d. goldstein 151 medical and public health education in pennsylvania pennsylvania is active in public health education. the drexel university school of public health was founded as the allegheny university school of public health in 1996. the school’s founding dean, dr. jonathan mann, was a charismatic leader in public health who developed the world health organization’s global aids program. his vision of the interrelationship between human rights and human health was central to his development of a then unique model of public health education, in essence a “school without walls” in which the students learned in a case-based learning format and spent a significant amount of time in the community performing both their research and service hours. although he died in a plane crash in 1998, dr. mann’s vision has persisted in the successor drexel university school of public health. under the leadership of the current dean, dr. marla gold, an infectious disease physician and expert in hiv/aids, drexel in 2007 received full accreditation as a school of public health from ceph. students and faculty continue to focus much of their work in the regional communities. the school has thrived with an exponential increase in class size, expert faculty, and in research funding. the university of pittsburgh graduate school of public health (gsph) was founded in 1948, largely in response to the occupational and environmental health issues of western pennsylvania. the founding dean, dr. thomas parran, who had been surgeon general under presidents roosevelt and truman, established a focus on research to advance public health. the gsph remains a public health research powerhouse, ranking third among 42 schools of public health in competitive funding from the national institutes of health. only johns hopkins and harvard schools of public health receive more total nih funding, but the gsph exceeds them in funding per faculty member. its annual nih funding total also exceeds three of the six pennsylvania medical schools. in recent years its public health practice components have achieved national recognition, including the center for public health practice headed by margaret potter, jd, and the center for minority health, headed by stephen thomas, phd. the new gsph dean, dr. donald burke, has an exceptional record of leadership in global health issues, particularly emerging infections, and is the upmc-jonas salk chair in global health. 152 credentialing of the public health work force pennsylvania is fortunate to have six allopathic medical schools, slightly above the national average in number (with 4.2% of the population we have 4.9% of the 129 accredited medical schools). we also have two osteopathic medical schools of the 25 in the united states. two of the allopathic medical schools (university of pennsylvania and the university of pittsburgh) are leading research institutions, ranking in the top ten in terms of receiving nih grants, and propelling pennsylvania to be fourth highest among all states in terms of nih funding. we received $1.4 billion in nih funding 2007, equivalent to 6.8% of the total (national institutes of health 2008). recently, there has been a movement in academic medicine to obtain support for increasing the number of medical students. at the state level, bills have been introduced to increase funding for medical education in pennsylvania. of note is that a driving force in the expressed need for more medical school graduates is the perceived shortage of primary care physicians. the american association of medical colleges has campaigned for federal funding on this basis. this is also a major rationale for the new allopathic medical school proposed for scranton which has received $35 million in state funding and intends to admit its first class in fall 2009 (sonderman 2006; pennsylvania medical society 2008). not all agree. goodman and fisher (2008) argue that the perception that there is a physician shortage is a symptom of the underlying problems in our health care system, and that increasing the number of physicians will not be helpful. central to this and other arguments about physician numbers has been the concern not only about the relative lack of primary care physicians, but also the declining interest among medical students in general care (forrest 2006; garibaldi et al. 2005). the reasons range from the focus of health care resources on specialized physicians, to burnout among primary care practitioners from seeing too many patients in too little time. as primary care physicians are at the forefront of preventive medicine to individuals, and in such settings as community health centers (rosenblatt et al. 2006; iglehart 2008), their decline in number, and the increasing demands on their time, make organized medicine even less likely to be the locus of needed preventive activities thus increasing demands on the public health workforce. the increasing recognition by academic medicine of the value of academic public health is evident in pennsylvania. of the six allopathic bernard d. goldstein 153 medical schools, two are associated with schools of public health on the same campus offering master’s and doctoral degrees (pittsburgh and drexel), and three of the four other medical schools have accredited programs of public health offering the mph degree. of note is that two of these medical school public health degree programs are relatively recent – the programs at both the university of pennsylvania and at thomas jefferson medical school being accredited in 2006. this represents the recent nationwide surge in public health educational programs at universities with medical schools. of the 69 degree granting graduate educational programs accredited by the council on education for public health, 38 have been accredited since 2000. not all of the programs that are on a campus with a medical school are closely associated with the medical school. temple university, whose mph program was accredited in 1985, is at the college of health professions. similarly, new york university’s accredited program in public health is on its main campus in a department of food, nutrition and public health rather than on the medical campus. the only pennsylvania university that has an allopathic medical school but does not offer an accredited graduate degree in public health is the pennsylvania state university. although there have been moves in this direction, it is unlikely to occur at the hershey campus due to the recent appointment of a senior vice president for health affairs and dean of the penn state college of medicine who has a track record of opposition to public health educational programs. pennsylvania is also fortunate to have excellent accredited public health graduate programs that are not associated with universities with medical campuses. east stroudsburg university and west chester university both offer fully accredited mph degree programs. east stroudsburg university’s program also represents the changing trends in public health education. in the past, there was a separate accreditation pathway for graduate programs that focused on health education. ceph changed their rules to establish the same core public health requirements for all accredited programs. these are the core disciplines on which the nbphe is based. 154 credentialing of the public health work force professional licensing and state health leadership in pennsylvania pennsylvania’s department of state has oversight function over 27 professional licensing boards and commissions with the goal of protecting the health, safety, and welfare of commonwealth citizens. the 15 health-related boards alphabetically range from chiropractic to veterinary medicine and include medicine, dentistry, nursing, pharmacy, physical therapy, etc. – but not public health. in addition, there are a dozen business-related boards including accountancy and cosmetology (pennsylvania department of state 2002). again, the field of public health is not among those covered by pennsylvania licensing boards and commissions. pennsylvania is one of many states that have removed the requirement that the head of its state health department must be a physician (pennsylvania public law 518 of july 2, 1996, vol. 115, section 4, p. 4-55). at the same time, the law created the new position of physician general with the stated goal that this individual would serve as the primary advisor on medical issues to the governor and to the secretary of health (id, p. 4-56) when the secretary of health was not a physician. our first non-physician secretary of health was robert zimmerman, who has an mph degree and had a long and respected career as a public health professional. robert muscalus, d.o., became the commonwealth’s first physician general in february 1999. he left the position in march 2005. our current secretary of health, calvin johnson, md, mph, is a physician, who also has excellent public health experience. new jersey also changed its laws in 1990 to allow a nonphysician to be its commissioner of health. the new jersey experience has differed from pennsylvania in that law has been the background of its two non-physician commissioners of health. its first non-md lawyer was appointed as commissioner of health in 1992 – as is governor corzine’s present appointee. both had extensive experience in legislative activities related to health care, but neither has any educational background or direct experience in public health or health care organizations. new jersey has also appointed one physician during the time period that non-physicians have been eligible. in this case the physician was an internist with extensive practice and hospital experience, but with no public health background. however, new jersey does have a state board of health that has statutory authorities and bernard d. goldstein 155 oversight responsibilities. pennsylvania, like many other states, no longer has a similar state board of health. implications to public health in pennsylvania pennsylvania presents a microcosm of the major public health challenges facing our country. we have large urban areas which share many of the characteristic health disparities found in disadvantaged inner city areas. yet philadelphia and pittsburgh are remarkably different demographically; pittsburgh is notable for its aging population, with allegheny county said to have the second oldest population of any county in the state. there is also a relative lack of a migrant hispanic work force in pittsburgh, reflecting the fact that job creation, which has been slow, has tended to be at the middle or upper end of the wage scale. eastern urban areas in our commonwealth must put more resources toward meeting the health challenges of poor documented and undocumented immigrants. problems such as hiv/aids and violence tend to be more evident in philadelphia than pittsburgh. the rural parts of our state provide yet other challenges to public health that differ from those of our two major urban areas. it has become clear that rural health issues go well beyond access to care (meit, 2005). it has been conventional to describe the “three pennsylvanias” as being philadelphia, pittsburgh, and a “t” of rural counties that extends across the north and central parts of the commonwealth. this can be helpful in looking at pennsylvania’s public health needs. however, it does not tell the whole story. for example, reviewing the prevalence of smokeless tobacco use is an informative means of further distinguishing among the distinct cultural factors that affect public health in our state. among the nine pennsylvania health districts, male use of smokeless tobacco, as expected, is lower in cities than in rural areas. yet the major gradient is east-west. the estimated prevalence of male users of smokeless tobacco in 2002-03 was 16% in pennsylvania’s southwestern health district and 15% in the northwestern health district as compared to 3% and 2% in the northeastern and southeastern health districts. allegheny county had an estimated prevalence of 6%, three times higher than that for philadelphia county. the northcentral and southcentral health districts, at 10% and 8%, were in between, confirming that there is 156 credentialing of the public health work force a geographical component whose cultural influences on the use of smokeless tobacco transcend usual urban-rural differences. the example of smokeless tobacco is just one of many that support the concept that local knowledge is crucial to responding to public health needs. it would be inappropriate to assign the same priority to smokeless tobacco in eastern as compared to western pennsylvania. the allegheny county health department must confront health problems related to an appalachian life style that are not all that common in philadelphia county. similarly, there are large hispanic immigrant populations in cities in the eastern half of our commonwealth. such populations present challenges to public health authorities ranging from classical migrant health issues to the need to be sure that public health messages are understood by those to whom english is not a native language. major programs to address rural public health issues have been developed at the pennsylvania state university, which houses the pennsylvania office of rural health, and the university of pittsburgh-bradford. however, despite the local nature of many public health issues, there is a commonality in the core competencies needed to address these issues. these are the core competencies that are the basis for the nbphe credentialing examination. pennsylvania stands out from other states in its relative lack of an identifiable public health workforce. a hrsa-sponsored study (gebbie 2000) showed that in public health workforce per capita we ranked last among all 50 states and the district of columbia. the difference was substantial: the public health workers per capita for pennsylvania was 37/100,000 population while the average for the entire country was 138 and for our region was 174. put another way, we would have to almost quadruple our public health workforce simply to achieve the national median, and more than quadruple it to achieve the median for our region. a major reason for pennsylvania’s relative scarcity of identifiable public health workers is the lack of local health departments. nationally, there are approximately 3,000 local health departments (salinsky and gursky 2007) – only seven of which are in pennsylvania. most of our 68 counties are covered by the state department of health which has regional offices in various locations throughout the state. i am unaware of any systematic study of whether our state’s organizational system is better for public health than are more usual organizational systems in which there are many local county or municipal health departments in bernard d. goldstein 157 addition to a state health department. however, the disparate and fragmented local and state public health organizational structure and responsibilities has been considered to be both a symptom of what ails public health, and a cause of its problems. more information about pennsylvania’s state public health workforce is available from a 2007 astho study (association of state and territorial health officials 2007). the average age of a padoh public health professional is 49, slightly older than the national average of 47 years. one of the problems facing pennsylvania and the nation is an expected turnover of the existing public health work force – 23% of the nation’s public health workforce is eligible to retire by 2012 (association of schools of public health 2008) and for pennsylvania the number is 29% (association of state and territorial health officials 2007). secretary calvin johnson has noted this issue for pennsylvania and has led the department in dealing with a variety of public health workforce issues. he has made recruiting and retaining a highly skilled public health workforce one of his primary goals, along with developing initiatives to improve workforce accountability (pennsylvania department of health 2007). in addition to the failure to obtain adequate funding for tobacco cessation and prevention, a glaringly evident symptom of the weakness of public health as a policy force in pennsylvania is the 2003 repeal of the motorcycle helmet law, a repeal that was supported by democratic governor edward rendell. the dire predictions of the public health community have been more than borne out with data demonstrating a 32% increase in head injury deaths and a 42% increase in head injuryrelated hospitalizations (mertz and weiss 2008). despite the highly publicized statement after his motorcycle incident by head-injured steeler quarterback ben roethlisberger that he would have worn a helmet had that been the law, and despite newspaper editorials throughout the state supporting reinstitution of universal motorcycle helmet laws, any change in our state’s motorcycle helmet coverage is unlikely. one way to determine what is needed in any system is to stress the system. in essence, the post 9/11 anthrax outbreak and continued threat of bioterrorism, along with the need to meet emerging infections such as sars and avian flu, has provided this stress. studies of the ability of the 158 credentialing of the public health work force public health system to respond to an emerging natural or terrorist biothreat have provided ample documentation of the need for a transformation of public health. in addition to fragmented lines of authorities, there is a patchwork of capabilities and a workforce that already has too much to do with too little resources and too little training (gursky 2005). any public health emergency will require a highly trained workforce capable of a knowledgeable and flexible response. it also will require a surge capability that will allow rapid response without sacrifice of other public health functions. substantial criticism has been directed at current preparedness activities as diverting resources and workforce from existing and necessary public health activities – for example, in recent congressional testimony the head of the association of public health laboratories called the national post 9/11 biosurveillance system a “parasite” on public health laboratory function (downes 2008). in the words of one observer, for preparedness to deal with natural or terrorist biological threats, public health should be considered a sector that needs to become a system (gursky 2005). training and sustaining a skilled workforce has been identified as one of the key challenges to ensuring public health preparedness. pennsylvania’s public health workforce needs are substantial. new county and regional health departments are under consideration as are state initiatives to bolster the public health workforce. providing a national core credential for the public health workforce will not by itself transform public health in pennsylvania so it can effectively protect the public against all health challenges – but it is a necessary step toward a vibrant public health workforce responsive to longstanding public health threats and to the emerging problems of our times. acknowledgments. i thank my colleagues at the national board of public health examiners and at the university of pittsburgh graduate school of public health center for public health practice for their insight and their dedication. jessica kanzler and michael bazaco provided valuable assistance in preparing the manuscript. references agency for healthcare research and quality. 2006. “national healthcare disparities report, 2005.” available at: http://www.ahrq.gov/qual/nhdr05/nhdr05.htm. bernard d. goldstein 159 american medical association. 2007. “maintaining medical specialty board certification.” american medical association house of delegates resolution 318. akhter, m. 2001. “professionalizing the public 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"shoe-leather epidemiology – the footpads of mice and rats.” the mount sinai journal of medicine. 61(6): 504-8. 162 credentialing of the public health work force roberts, philip. 2008. “practice makes perfect.” solicitor’s journal. 152(30). roemer, milton i. 1986. “the need for professional doctors of public health.” national library of medicine. 101(1): 21-29. roemer, milton i. 1988. “preparing public health leaders for the 1990s.” national library of medicine. 103(5): 443-52. rosenblatt, roger c., c. holly a. andrilla, thomas curtin, et al. 2006. “shortages of medical personnel at community health centers: implications for planned expansion.” journal of the american medical association. 295(9):1042-1049. salinsky, eileen, and elin a. gursky. (2006) “the case for transforming governmental public health.” health affairs. 25(4):1017-1028. snowbeck, christopher. march 4, 2000. “tobacco settlement debate smolders: researcher angers anti-smoking forces" pittsburgh post-gazette http://www. google.com/search?hl=enandq=herberman+testimony+pennsylvania+tobacco. sommer, a., and m. akhter. 2000. “it’s time we became a profession.” american journal of public health. 90: 845-46. sonderman, jeff. 2006. “$35m set aside for medical school in scranton.” the timestribune. june 29, 2006. united states central intelligence agency. 2008a. “the world factbook (rank orderinfant mortality rate, 2008 estimates).” available at: https://www.cia.gov/library/ publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2091rank.html. united states central intelligence agency. 2008b. “the world factbook (rank orderlife expectancy at birth, 2008 estimates). available at: https://www.cia.gov/library/ publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2102rank.html. world health organization. 2008. “frequently asked questions.” available at: http:// www.who.int/suggestions/faq/en/index.html. microsoft word volume15.doc commonwealth: a journal of political science  volume 15, number 2  september 2009  2009 ppsa/lorl, pa house of reps. issn 0890-2410 book reviews comments from the book review editor given the positive response received by the editors to the first collection of book reviews that appeared in the 2007 issue of commonwealth, we decided to continue the practice with this volume and, barring a major backlash from our readers, into the future. the seven books reviewed here are an interesting and diverse collection. five deal directly with some aspect of pennsylvania, but all were released by in-state publishers. readers are encouraged to recommend books for review here. readers interested in reviewing books for commonwealth should send their names, contact information, areas of scholarly interest, and brief curriculum vitae to dr. thomas j. baldino, commonwealth book review editor, department of political science, wilkes university, wilkes-barre, pa 18766. citizen lobbyists: local efforts to influence public policy. by brian l. adams. philadelphia, pa: temple university press, 2007. 235 pp., $71.50 cloth, isbn: 978-1-59213-569-2; $25.95 paper, isbn: 978-159213-570-7 as noted by brian l. adams, an associate professor of political science at san diego university, scholars have spent more effort in trying to gauge the power of interest groups than in trying to understand their tactics. he might have added that scholars have also focused disproportionately on lobbying at the federal level, thereby overemphasizing lobbying by large organizations and losing sight of lobbying by community groups. we seemingly have become so distracted by the emergence of the “astroturf” generated by professional lobbyists that the dynamics of genuine grassroots efforts have been relatively neglected. adams’s straightforward book is a welcome respite from that pattern. 102 book reviews the lure of the influence issue is not unknown to adams, but he astutely attempts to link it to such factors as who is doing the lobbying, what issues the activists tackle, and―in particular―how they attempt to exert influence. of course, this is a daunting task and one that is not going to produce a truly satisfactory resolution any time soon, if ever. ultimately, this book only scratches the surface, as perhaps is to be expected. adams identified 85 activists in the community of santa ana―an “older” suburb of los angeles with a population of 320,000, a large latino sub-population, and severe problems with overcrowding―and he wrangled interviews with 55 of them, focusing on their tactics. unfortunately, the concept of tactics is limited primarily to what activities were undertaken (e.g., speaking at a public meeting or publishing a letter to the editor), what activist associations exist (e.g., neighborhood associations or political parties), and what issues were addressed (e.g., gang violence or school curriculum). it would have been interesting to see some other factors addressed, such as the extent to which an activist played “hardball” (admittedly problematic to define) or was motivated by a single transient issue (such as a proposal to widen a street) as opposed to a more longitudinal involvement (e.g., an ongoing concern about taxation). the most obvious limitation of citizen lobbyists is that the research―this is an adapation of a doctoral dissertation―is limited to a single community, and the characteristics of this case study subject appear to have much to do with the author’s conclusions concerning influence. adams, who readily concedes that there is no such thing as a “typical” community, concludes that santa ana’s citizen lobbyists tended to address issues that were “neither complex nor complicated.” accordingly, they did little to provide new information to public officials. (of course, public participation often says something about public opinion, the problem often being just how to read the tea leaves.) in addition, because they necessarily specialized in particular issues and tended to deemphasize collaboration, the santa ana activists did little to improve their local governments’ problem-solving capacity. had adams picked a community with more sophisticated and successful citizen lobbying efforts, he presumably would have had a better opportunity to address what makes for a successful community lobbying effort, collaborative or otherwise. the lack of such an effort in santa ana leads us to ask, if nothing else, why effective citizen book reviews 103 leadership arises in some communities or on some issues more than others. of course, that is yet another complicated subject in itself and does not render citizen lobbyists anything less than a decent contribution on an important subject. james yoho, j.d., ph.d. independent scholar restructuring the philadelphia region: metropolitan divisions and inequality. by carolyn adams, david bartelt, david elesh, and ira goldstein, with joshua freely and michelle schmitt. philadelphia, pa: temple university press, 2008. 256 pp., $74.50 cloth, isbn: 1-59213896-9; $25.95 paper, isbn: 1-59213-897-7 restructuring the philadelphia region should be required reading for every resident of the nine counties (and the 353 municipalities within them) that the book covers. but that would require a coordinated metropolitan policy, which, as carolyn adams and her coauthors point out, is highly unlikely in a “region that is decentering and has balkanized into hundreds of small, separate jurisdictions that offer their residents widely differing opportunities to work, live, and educate their children” (193). as this quote suggests, the authors offer a sobering vision of the metropolitan area that is bolstered by a mountain of data (too rich and voluminous to summarize adequately in a review), much of it collected through the metropolitan philadelphia indicators project (www.temple. edu/mpip/) upon which this book fruitfully builds. relative to other urban areas in the united states, the philadelphia region is marked by a highly unequal distribution of wealth manifested in the form of spatially concentrated pockets of poverty that are isolated from economic opportunity through “job sprawl.” the jobs that are most widely dispersed across the region, and thus the farthest from public transit routes, are also the lowest paying. the poorest residents of the region accordingly have the longest commutes to work, yet they are also the least able to afford cars. the geographic concentration of poverty is reinforced by a housing market that provides a limited range of residential options to residents making below the median metropolitan income of $51,980 (mostly in the cities of camden, chester, and philadelphia, along with several inner-ring suburbs). not surprisingly, the available evidence shows that these communities have the highest http://www.temple. edu/mpip/ http://www.temple. edu/mpip/ 104 book reviews percentages of homes purchased through subprime mortgages and the highest foreclosure rates. also not surprising is that the vast majority of the best public schools in the region are concentrated in communities with “highly-educated, high-earning populations” (115). interestingly, adams et al. found through regression analyses that the average educational level of the overall community was a much stronger predictor of public school student achievement (measured by sat score) than was average income. still, it is far more expensive to move into a community with highperforming schools, as indicated by the strong, persistent, and positive relationship between school achievement and housing prices. residents of the region’s poorest communities face the greatest obstacles to finding work, endure the longest commutes, suffer the fewest housing and schooling options, and shoulder the largest state and local tax burdens. using a hypothetical household earning the median metropolitan income and living in a house priced at the median metropolitan market value ($174,044), adams et al. conclude that “in the majority of suburbs, our hypothetical household would have been paying under $6,500 in combined state and local taxes, compared with the same household paying over $6,500 if they lived in philadelphia and over $8,000 if they lived in the distressed city of chester” (149–150). with regard to unequal taxation, the authors conclude that “the result of the region’s intense fragmentation into hundreds of small jurisdictions is that by exercising choices among communities, people can opt out of paying the full cost of their location choices” (150). indeed, the strongest theme in the book is the negative consequences of government fragmentation. for instance, the authors attribute job sprawl in part to the fact that both pennsylvania and new jersey historically have left land use planning to separate municipalities and in some instances have actively discouraged intermunicipal coordination (45). disparities in education are also partly attributable to the fragmentation of school districts, which, in turn, is exacerbated by state policies, especially in pennsylvania, that use local school district property taxes to fund public schools (134–138 and 158). the authors note as well that municipal fragmentation allows companies to pit municipalities against one another, as in the case of towers perrin, a consulting firm that “benefited from over $14 million in promised state and local government incentives to move 1,100 employees one mile from voorhees, new jersey, to cherry hill, new jersey” (159). book reviews 105 if adams et al. are clearly in favor of regional cooperation, they depart from scholars such as myron orfield and neal pierce who urge cooperative action among elected local officials. instead, the authors foresee a “regionalism by default” (196) led by nongovernmental institutions—regional authorities, business improvement districts, neighborhood development organizations, community development financial institutions, and foundations—that have formed “an increasingly thick network across the region, mobilizing money and political support that would not be available to traditional institutions of government” (195). that is slim solace, to say the least. richardson dilworth drexel university social capital in the city: community and civic life in philadelphia. edited by richardson dilworth. philadelphia, pa: temple university press, 2006. 240 pp., $88.50 cloth, isbn: 1-59213-344-4; $28.95 paper, isbn: 1-59213-345-2 the publication in 2000 of robert putnam’s bowling alone: the collapse and revival of american community renewed scholarly interest in the apparent decline of social capital in the united states and its ramifications for particular communities. in this edited volume, researchers closely examine social capital in the city of philadelphia in historical context, in urban education, and in neighborhood and other locally based institutions. the result is a compelling book that makes a rich contribution to the literature on both social capital and the city of philadelphia. the first three chapters are devoted to philadelphia’s social capital in historical context. these chapters paint a convincing portrait of philadelphia as a vibrant center for social capital in different historical eras. in chapter 1, for example, jerome hodos extols the city’s 1876 centennial exposition as a monumental event that required sustained participation within groups, otherwise known as bonding capital, as well as the more outward looking, bridging capital, which requires the creation of bonds between and across groups. likewise, in chapter 2 mark brewin encourages the reader to rethink the relationship between voting and social capital. while most contemporary literature on electoral participation suggests that voting is a result of social capital, brewin postulates that in philadelphia in the late nineteenth century, 106 book reviews election day’s voting rituals actually “create[d] and promote[d] social capital” (41). voting’s inability to create social capital in modern america may be one possible reason for the decline in electoral participation. concluding the first section, david contosta and carol franklin discuss how social capital was at work in the “preserv[ation] and enhance[ment]” of wissahickon park in the twentieth-century (56). maintaining “one of the largest urban park networks in the world”—one that includes many different communities and constituencies—requires sustained bonding efforts within and between groups (57). in large part, the park’s success can be traced to the social bonds that it created. comprised of two chapters, part ii examines social capital in urban education. in her chapter titled “leveraging social capital: the university as educator and broker,” barbara ferman makes a compelling case for how universities can build social capital in their cities. she cites philadelphia’s temple university as an example. ferman encourages universities not to neglect their natural role in “seeding the kinds of values and fostering the types of activities that we associate with democratic life and practice” (88). whereas ferman summarizes the various social capital initiatives developed by temple’s university community collaborative of philadelphia (uccp), melina patterson in chapter 6 reviews the west philadelphia improvement corps (wepic), a partnership in west philadelphia among the university of pennsylvania, public schools, and other neighborhood organizations. the goals of wepic were to establish broad partnerships, build social networks, and improve the lives of those in the community. lives of west philadelphia residents frequently were improved, but patterson cautions that these efforts at community improvement often are exceedingly difficult in locales faced with broad structural inequalities that have persisted for far too long. in the third and final section of the book, the authors consider “the role of local institutions in social capital production” (12) such as credit unions (chapter 6), african american-owned businesses (chapter 7), economic development projects (chapter 8), closely-knit neighborhoods (chapter 9), and churches (chapter 10). though each chapter offers something unique and rewarding, patricia stern smallacombe’s chapter on the kensington section of philadelphia presents an interesting perspective on the limitations of bonding social capital. predominantly populated by poor working-class whites, kensington has been largely left behind in the “postindustrial economy” and “institutional efforts to book reviews 107 address racism around the city.” therefore, its residents “increasingly see themselves as disenfranchised majority citizens” (178). the result of the monumental societal shifts, stern smallacombe argues, is that residents looked inward and achieved social identity strictly within the neighborhood, which generated negative attitudes concerning work, education, pregnancy, and families. in the end, kensington’s high bonding social capital has been to the detriment of bridging social capital and connecting to outside institutions. in the concluding chapter, matthew a. crenson and benjamin ginsberg place social capital into its appropriate context and draw connections among the chapters. they argue that the decline of popular politics, reflected in political parties and protest movements, and the subsequent growth of “personal” modern politics that make the process open to anyone, have precipitated the decline in social capital. herein is the crux of the problem. while it is easy for scholars and pundits alike to blame citizens for the decline of social capital, this book causes the reader to ponder the larger, structural reasons for its decline. it is a valuable contribution to the literature on social capital and the city of philadelphia. kyle l. kreider wilkes university the realignment of pennsylvania politics since 1960: two-party competition in a battleground state. by rené m. lamis. university park, pa: the pennsylvania state university press, 2009. 398 pp., $65.00 cloth, isbn: 978-0-271-03419-5 scholars of politics often do not give enough attention to state-level and local-level analysis of major political trends. this is certainly true in the work on electoral realignment. rené m. lamis’s the realignment of pennsylvania politics since 1960 adds much to the realignment discussion by focusing in great detail on electoral changes in one state over the last 50 years. she believes such state-level analysis can help develop a more comprehensive understanding of what has happened to the american electorate since the 1960s. in the case of pennsylvania, she argues, “recent democratic gains are aftershocks of the culture-wars realignment playing out after the main event of the realignment has occurred” (36). she relates these changes to the aftershocks that followed the new deal realignment. the book tries to explain why democratic 108 book reviews presidential candidates fared so well in pennsylvania since the 1960s when republican senatorial and gubernatorial candidates remained highly competitive. it provides thorough statistical analysis of state voting and demographic trends while telling the story of each election from 1960 to 2004. it makes an excellent addition to electoral realignment theory as well as pennsylvania political history. this well-structured book sifts through 50 years of election data. after first reviewing the current state of realignment theory, it examines presidential electoral change both nationally and within pennsylvania. lamis begins with the new deal realignment to show how the south began moving away from the democrats with the election of truman and how kennedy was the last non-southern democrat to win the presidency until obama did in 2008. the book notes how culturally liberal states moved toward the democrats, while culturally conservative ones moved toward the republicans. this is termed the “culture war realignment,” and its aftershocks led to a relatively stable party system at the turn of the century as “voters in the fifty american states sorted themselves out” (53). drawing upon pennsylvania voter and demographic data, the rest of the book provides a wonderful journey through all the gubernatorial and senatorial elections in pennsylvania from 1960 to 2004, along with analysis of the 2006 and 2008 elections. while lamis sometimes presents an avalanche of statistical data, charts, and figures, her analysis is thorough and she provides strong evidence for her thesis. the story that unfolds explains how pennsylvania has become a moderately democratic state over the last 50 years. culturally liberal and culturally conservative counties sorted themselves out during a period of culture war realignment. the clearest examples are the counties surrounding philadelphia and pittsburgh, which respectively have become more democratic and republican. the qualitative background information about candidates illuminates why certain moderate republicans such as tom ridge, dick thornburgh, john heinz, and arlen specter have been so successful, while republican presidential candidates have not fared as well. the success of these moderate republicans explains the rampant ticket-splitting observed in pennsylvania. senator rick santorum appears as the major outlier, and the portrait of pennsylvania’s electorate painted by the author makes it easy to see why bob casey jr. beat him so handily in 2006. book reviews 109 this work provides an excellent foundation for future analyses of pennsylvania elections. the postscript on the 2008 election reinforces the argument that pennsylvania is moving in a democratic direction. an interesting image is drawn of the state being divided demographically and politically by the appalachian mountains. to the east, the population is becoming younger and more educated as young people leave the western counties. what were once some of the strongest republican counties east of the appalachians have seen democratic gains over the last two presidential elections. having grown up in a democratic household in lancaster county, i can personally attest to this trend. over the past few election cycles, “closet” democrats have been finding their voices in lancaster and much of the eastern half of the state at the same time that more educated, urban, and cosmopolitan individuals have moved to this region from the philadelphia, baltimore, and new york areas. this change has affected county voting trends and it may predict additional democratic advances in the east. the most astonishing picture of this trend appears in a map showing how only six counties in pennsylvania have seen gains in republican party registration from 2004 to 2008. the rest have seen varying degrees of democratic gain. when combined with the 2008 registration data showing that 67.3% of voters aged 18 to 24 are democrats, opportunities for future republican electoral success appear bleak. the book properly notes, however, that these trends are not set in stone. the 2008 election also reinforces the argument that new realignments do not completely erase old ones but build upon them instead. although the author makes a strong case for the culture war realignment, the 2008 election demonstrates that economic issues from the new deal realignment are still alive and well. lamis essentially predicts senator arlen specter’s switch to the democratic party in 2009. her review of the state’s electoral history identifies congressman pat toomey’s near-upset of specter in 2004 as an example of how the state’s republican party has become more conservative and thus less able to endorse someone like specter. as she persuasively notes, “my best guess is that moderate-to-liberal republicans like senator specter are likely to have a tougher time winning gop nominations in the future. . . . the irony is that it is exactly this type of moderate-to-liberal candidate who has the best chance of getting elected statewide” (278). after reading this book, one senses that 110 book reviews specter read the writing on the wall and realized that he could no longer win a republican primary even though he has the qualities necessary to win a general election. this final point about specter reinforces how important this book is not only for academics studying realignment but also for practitioners seeking state or federal office. the book is well written and rich with data and statistical analysis. it will appeal to professional political scientists, journalists covering the state, and students in classes on pennsylvania politics. daniel mallinson villanova university pivotal pennsylvania: presidential politics from fdr to the twenty-first century. by g. terry madonna. mansfield, pa: pennsylvania historical association, 2008. 126 pp., $14.95 paper, isbn: 1-932304-40-1 the may 2008 democratic primary election brought much national attention to pennsylvania as the two candidates, senators barack obama and hillary clinton, battled to secure enough votes to win their party’s nomination. the national media descended on the state, which occupied center stage for more than a month. although clinton’s victory in pennsylvania did not deliver her the democratic nomination, the election marked the first time since 1976 that pennsylvania’s voters played an important role in the nominating process of either party. but as g. terry madonna documents in his book, pivotal pennsylvania: presidential politics from fdr to the twenty-first century, the keystone state has earned its reputation as a battleground in general elections for the presidency. in eight chapters, each averaging less than 20 pages, madonna reviews the last seven decades of the twentieth century and the first decade of the current century. the chapters are organized in essentially the same manner: first an examination of each presidential election in terms of the major issues that animated the democratic and republican party primaries both nationally and in pennsylvania, then an account of the parties’ conventions and nominees, and finally an analysis of the general election campaign in pennsylvania incorporating voter turnout data and, where appropriate, analysis of how the various regions of the state cast their votes. book reviews 111 those unfamiliar with pennsylvania’s voting history may be shocked to learn that for over 40 years the state was solidly republican, consistently supporting the gop’s presidential candidates while also electing them to statewide office and even the mayor’s office in the state’s largest cities. the democrats’ fortunes began to improve with the election of franklin d. roosevelt in 1932. even though herbert hoover carried the state for the gop that year, the popularity of roosevelt and his new deal brought the incumbent president victory in pennsylvania in 1936, the first time since 1912 that any democrat had carried the state. pennsylvanians vacillated between the parties in subsequent presidential elections, thereby earning the state its reputation as a battleground. in the conclusion, madonna treats the 2008 primary campaign but not the general election. he does note, however, that the democrats had won four consecutive presidential races in the state as of 2004. still, it would have been helpful had he speculated about the implications of either an obama or mccain victory for the state’s role as a battleground in the 2012 election cycle. pivotal pennsylvania is an excellent overview of a large northeastern state’s historical place in modern presidential electoral politics. considering the book’s brevity, the author could have devoted more pages to any one of the elections he covers, and the conclusion ought to have provided a more comprehensive synthesis of the material. but these are the complaints of an academic. general readers and students will find much to enjoy and learn from madonna’s work, while historians and political scientists will have a handy reference on pennsylvania’s place in presidential campaigns. thomas j. baldino wilkes university welfare reform in persistent rural poverty: dreams, disenchantments, and diversity. by kathleen pickering, mark h. harvey, gene e. summers, and david mushinski. university park, pa: penn state university press, 2006. 256 pp., $66.00 cloth, isbn: 978-0271-02877-4 the personal responsibility and work opportunity reconciliation act of 1996 (prwora) instituted a transition from traditional welfare embodied in aid to families with dependent children (afdc) to temporary assistance to needy families (tanf). the goal was to move 112 book reviews families off welfare by imposing time limits and requiring either work or community service in order to receive benefits. welfare reform in persistent rural poverty compares the experiences with welfare reform in four regions known for persistent rural poverty: appalachian kentucky, the rosebud and pine ridge reservations in south dakota, the rio grande valley of texas, and the mississippi delta. by selecting two representative counties in each of these regions, the authors explore policy implementation both within and between regions. these regions mirror the national trends in that welfare caseloads declined dramatically in the period of study from 1996 to 2003. why they declined and what happened to former welfare families is the subject of this study. the strength of this work is the mix of quantitative and qualitative analyses. the authors—sociologists, an economist, and an anthropologist—bring a diversity of methodological perspectives that provide different insights into the experiences of tanf recipients. a statistical section places each region in state context while also allowing for comparison between regions. case studies of each region, based on interviews with government case workers, private sector agency representatives, and current and former tanf participants, provide insights into unique conditions that shape policy implementation. the story of welfare reform in each of these regions is complex, involving the interplay of social and economic structures within the dynamics of local politics and agency interaction. the outcomes of devolution of program implementation are mixed. in mississippi the privatization of social services limited accountability, while in south dakota the state and tribal governments clashed over program administration. the texas local workforce development boards created a hostile atmosphere for program recipients, in some cases using sanctions to drop families from the rolls and in others creating bureaucratic disincentives to joining in the first place. kentucky counties, on the other hand, developed a “community approach” to welfare reform involving considerable coordination between government agencies and community organizations. access to good jobs depends, in part, on having the requisite education and technical skills. states varied widely in their approaches to education for tanf participants. in kentucky, prwora was implemented in the wake of a major education reform program, giving communities both educational infrastructure and valuable experience in book reviews 113 providing services. tanf participants in kentucky were able to count time spent obtaining a ged or even taking courses at community college in lieu of work requirements. participants in texas and mississippi, on the other hand, could not. texas recipients complained that their required work hours limited time available to obtain an education, and some even noted that they had more time to pursue an education under the old afdc programs. no matter how effectively a policy is implemented, a “welfare to work” program is effective only when there are permanent, well-paying jobs with benefits to be had. in each of these regions, efforts of tanf participants to transition off government support were often derailed by the structure of the local economy. unemployment is high in chronically poor regions, but underemployment is even more of a problem. participants did leave the programs after finding jobs, but those jobs were often seasonal in nature and paid minimum wage. limited access to child care and public transportation presented further barriers to continued employment upon leaving tanf. in mississippi, tanf participants found themselves competing for jobs with workers laid off when manufacturing moved offshore. only in the rio grande valley did the booming border economy provide some hope for job seekers. in the end, poor families survive as they always have—with a combination of government assistance, work in the formal and informal economies, and family support that the authors call “the everyday economy.” informants in texas and mississippi noted that tanf pays so little for the bureaucratic costs and work involved that the program “is not worth it,” and they quit the program to make it on their own. the most vulnerable were single mothers whose precarious support systems occasionally failed. respondents reported that they sometimes went hungry when all support failed. welfare reform in persistent rural poverty confirms, in nuanced detail, what many suspected about the impact of prwora, that the decline in caseloads had less to do with the improving economy than with the specific dynamics of program implementation. in the end, prwora may not have helped recipients as much as did the recipients’ own resilience and reliance on traditional means of economic survival. e. brooke harlowe lock haven university 114 book reviews bethlehem steel: builder and arsenal of america. by kenneth warren. pittsburgh, pa: university of pittsburgh press, 2008. 352 pp., $45.00 cloth, isbn: 978-0822943235 this is the fifth book in kenneth warren’s examination of the growth and decline of the american steel industry during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. his first was a business biography of industrialist henry clay frick [triumphant capitalism: henry clay frick and the industrial transformation of america (pittsburgh, pa: university of pittsburgh press, 2000)]. he then examined the coke industry in the pittsburgh region in wealth, waste, and alienation: growth and decline in the connellsville coke industry (pittsburgh, pa: university of pittsburgh press, 2001). returning to the makers of the american steel industry, warren wrote a biography of charles schwab, an executive who played key roles at both united states steel and bethlehem steel in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries [industrial genius: the working life of charles michael schwab (pittsburgh, pa: university of pittsburgh press, 2007)]. warren then turned his attention to america’s largest steel producer for most of the twentieth century—u.s. steel—and examined in close detail its rise and more recent struggle for survival [big steel: the first century of the united states steel corporation, 1901-2001 (pittsburgh, pa: university of pittsburgh press, 2008)]. in the book under review, warren shifts from the company that schwab helped create—u.s. steel—to the organization that schwab turned into u.s steel’s arch rival and america’s second largest steel manufacturer for most of the twentieth century: bethlehem steel. for scholars interested in the industrialization of pennsylvania in the late nineteenth century and those interested in the deindustrialization of the state in the late twentieth century, these five books combine to tell an important story from the corporate viewpoint. bethlehem steel was a major employer in pennsylvania from world war i through the 1970s. it originated as part of the iron industry that existed in pennsylvania throughout the nineteenth century. unlike the steel industry, iron manufacturing tended to be small and decentralized. although many iron makers attempted the switch to steel in the late nineteenth century, few succeeded. warren develops this context quite well, and he nicely places the early history of bethlehem steel in this regional story in addition to linking changes in the industry with broader international trends. he then chronicles how bethlehem steel profited from the carnage (and america’s late entry) into the two world wars. book reviews 115 bethlehem steel owes its rise in the industry largely to sales to europe while the united states remained “neutral” for the first few years of world war i. as with his book on u.s. steel, warren does an excellent job tracing the decisions—both good and bad—made by bethlehem’s executives in the twentieth century. like many companies in decline, by the time bethlehem management realized the company was in trouble in the late twentieth century, it was largely too late to stop the slide. warren criticizes bethlehem’s inbred management for making decisions that in many cases were not bold enough to deal effectively with domestic and foreign competition. the story of bethlehem’s decline is fascinating because by just changing names and dates it could be applied to almost any major american manufacturer over the past 40 years. bethlehem and u.s. steel charged foreign steel makers with “dumping” when the american companies were simply being outproduced and undersold. warren also makes clear that bethlehem’s difficulty in dealing with its unions while it was in decline was a legacy of the company’s aggressive anti-union activities during its period of growth. all in all, warren has done a superb job of telling the saga of the rise and decline of one of pennsylvania’s major twentieth century corporations. although he discusses bethlehem’s anti-union labor practices (and what was even for the industry unduly high executive pay), this volume is a corporate history within an international context. other works will need to be consulted for a full picture of life for workers at bethlehem steel. warren’s text on the nineteenth century is full of competitors’ names that scholars not well versed in pennsylvania industrial history may not know, but overall he develops the context well. for me, the biggest question about this work is its relationship with warren’s four other books from the same press. all five volumes tell interrelated tales and overlap in both story and context (this is particularly true of the three most recent works). although each book tells an important part of the long story of the state’s industrialization (and deindustrialization), a scholar needs to read all five to fully understand the story from the corporate side. this volume on bethlehem steel should be read by people interested in the lehigh valley and the steel industry, but whether it will appeal to a broader spectrum is doubtful. while the story of bethlehem seems to me to be more interesting that that of its larger competitor (because of its earlier history and its odder twists and turns), i would be hard pressed to tell someone 116 book reviews who was going to read only one book on the steel industry to choose this one over warren’s work on u.s. steel. ironically, the author has produced an outstanding book on an interesting topic that may appeal only to a very limited market simply because he has produced so many other works on similar topics. john h. hepp, iv wilkes university 1 local government mandates in pennsylvania: how “burdensome” are they? paula a. duda holoviak kutztown university although the issue of state mandates has been off the agenda in recent years, the fiscal constraints imposed by the “new normal” for state and local governments has brought the issue to the foreground once again at the state level. this article examines the impact of state mandates as perceived by local governments in pennsylvania. pennsylvania, as a commonwealth, has a unique relationship with its many forms of local government, which results in policymaking by bargaining as well as by statute. this article is the result of a comprehensive 2010 survey of the types of state mandates and their impact and cost to local governments in pennsylvania. this article focuses upon the different responses to state mandates generated by the varied types of local government in pennsylvania. in particular, it focuses upon resource and administrative constraints for rural as opposed to urban municipalities. while federal and state mandates have received a great deal of academic and legislative scrutiny in the past 40 years, they have recently taken a backseat to more pressing issues at the local level. but mandates have not disappeared and, in fact, continue to play a large role in policy decisions, resource allocation, and administrative practices at the local level. recently, the state senate in pennsylvania commissioned a comprehensive study of the effects of state mandates upon local governments. although the study was prompted by complaints from local government associations, the question remains as to how important is this issue? given the fiscal constraints of recent years, how burdensome do local governments perceive these mandates to be? moreover, is this burden different for larger versus smaller or urban versus rural local governments? this research seeks to address these two questions by examining survey data gathered in 2011 by the pennsylvania local government commission. descriptive statistics and 2 local government mandates in pennsylvania tests of differences among groups are used to determine how burdensome state mandates are in the opinion of local governments. background on mandates the issue of mandates imposed by the federal government upon state and local government and by state governments upon local governments was very prevalent in research and legislation in the early 1980s and throughout the 1990s. mandates can be broadly defined to include direct orders from one level of government to another, a crosscutting requirement or condition of aid, or any partial preemption of government functions by another level of government (gormley 2006). the issue of state mandates placed upon local governments came to the forefront with the u.s. advisory commission on intergovernmental relations report, which found that state priorities were replacing local priorities due to the expanded use of mandates (acir 1990). other studies have shown that while state mandates can provide equity in both the type of service provision and the quality of those services, state mandates, and in particular unfunded or under-funded mandates, can displace local priorities (lovell and tobin 1981; st. george 1995). in addition, because the vast majority of state mandates involve administrative mandates rather than policy mandates, their effects and costs are much more difficult to track (kelly 1997). past strategies for dealing with the administrative and budgetary burdens caused by state mandates have included constitutional and legislatively mandated reimbursement requirements, fiscal notes or costs estimation for proposed mandates, voter approval, exceptions or exemptions from mandate provisions granted by the governor or legislature, and sunset legislation for existing mandates. however, the vast majority of these “fixes” have proven to be highly ineffective in dealing with fiscal and administrative costs (lovell and tobin; zimmerman 1995; grossback 2002). the pennsylvania mandate issue the problems and costs associated with state mandates placed on local government appeared to have fallen off the issue agenda in recent years. however, the fiscal constraints imposed by the great recession and the associated decline in state and local revenue sources have brought the issue to the forefront once again. the “new normal,” as many researchers have dubbed the current crisis, involves shrinking local tax bases, permanent cuts in expenditures, layoffs, pension and benefit cuts, decreased capital spending, and cuts in local services (martin et al. 2012). according to a 2012 report by the u.s. census bureau on the status of state and local governments, between 2007 and 2012, state and local government revenues declined by 3 paula a. duda holoviak 1.1% with cash and security holdings declining 1.7%. during this same time period, indebtedness increased 22.2% from $2.4 trillion to $2.9 trillion. local governments accounted for 61% of this debt (barnett et al. 2014). it was in this atmosphere of retrenchment and fiscal austerity that pennsylvania senate resolution 323 was commissioned on july 2, 2012. the pennsylvania local government commission, a state legislative agency, was directed to study the costs and the real and perceived effects of state statutory mandates upon all levels of pennsylvania local government, counties, cities, boroughs, towns, and townships (pa local government commission 2012). according to the local government commission, pennsylvania has over 6,500 local government mandates, which include “direct order, a condition of aid, an authorization, a condition of an authorization, or a combination…” (local government commission 2012: s-2). given this overwhelming number of mandates, the commission chose a more restrictive definition of mandate for the commissioned study. “mandate” – a duty imposed by a law enacted by the general assembly that is a direct order or condition of aid which requires that a municipality establish, expand or modify its activities or services in such a way as to necessitate expenditures from municipal revenues. a mandate shall not include any duty imposed by, required to implement, or necessary to avoid violating:… (local government commission srs 323 study 2012: 2-31) excluded from this definition of mandate were any requirements imposed by a courts order, federal law, the u.s. constitution, or the pennsylvania constitution as well as certain laws dealing with elections, municipal powers and structure, duties, powers and ethical considerations of public officials, collective bargaining agreements, and voter referendum (local government commission). since local government administers roughly 84% of these state mandates, the commission, with the assistance of a group of academic advisors, put together a multifaceted evaluation design to obtain measures of cost and perceived burden on local government. the methodology included a survey of state agencies (36) and all pennsylvania local governments. this paper provides analysis of all the municipal survey results (excluding the counties) while providing more in-depth analysis of the results of the survey of pennsylvania’s larger municipalities as classified by population and population density, cities, boroughs, and first-class townships. methodology—local government surveys the commission requested the major local government associations in the state to have their membership identify the most burdensome mandates. 4 local government mandates in pennsylvania this was done by the use of mail and email surveys, through association newsletters, and by in-person surveys conducted at association annual meetings and conventions. the county commissioners association of pennsylvania (ccap) identified 17 mandates of which 13 were chosen as not being currently addressed or studied. several municipal associations were surveyed: the pennsylvania league of cities and municipalities (plcm) (now the pennsylvania municipal league); the pennsylvania state association of boroughs (psab); the pennsylvania state association of township commissioners (psatc), which largely comprises more urban first-class townships; and the pennsylvania state association of township supervisors (psats), which is a more rural based organization of secondclass townships. these associations identified 23 issues. twelve of these issues were identified as either federal in nature and not state mandates, already studied, of little financial impact, or not measurable at this time, leaving 11 issues for the final survey. to develop survey questions based on the most burdensome issues identified by the associations, university led teams of students and professors then conducted field interviews with rural, urban, and suburban counties; cities; boroughs; firstand second-class townships in four regions across the state (three in eastern pennsylvania and one mix rural/urban in western pennsylvania). the commission then formulated and conducted a survey of all pennsylvania counties, cities, boroughs, and firstand second-class townships. an online survey instrument was used as well as a mail survey for those municipalities without email. the survey gathered information on costs estimates of mandates as well as the ranking of the perceived burden of these mandates. of the 67 counties surveyed, 59 or 88% responded (results not discussed here). the 2,562 municipalities surveyed generated a 30% overall completion rate. a total of 1,108 cities, boroughs and firstclass townships responded (25%) to the entire survey but only 498 (45%) completed the ranking portion of the survey. among the second-class, rural townships, 1,452 (34%) responded to the entire survey with 708 (49%) responding to the ranking questions. survey questions included rating mandates from not burdensome to very burdensome and estimates of costs associated with the implementation of these mandates. costs were defined as direct costs of implementing mandates such as mandatory police collective bargaining arbitration and added costs to projects from mandated competitive bidding and advertising. in addition, the survey asked respondents to choose from a list of mandate “fixes” and to identify any other burdensome mandates not identified in the survey. the list of costs and mandate burden relief was generated by each of the municipal associations identified previously. lastly the survey gathered general data on the location of the municipality and whether or not the municipality operated under a home rule charter. 5 paula a. duda holoviak survey findings appendices a and b provide a full list of the mandate-rating questions and responses for the municipal governments. participants were asked to rate 11 issues on a scale from not burdensome to very burdensome. these issues represented the mandates identified by the municipal associations. thus the municipal respondents, who ranged from professional administrators to full or part-time elected officials to clerks, could be assumed to have familiarity with the issues posed. table 1 summarizes the rankings of these issues from most to least burdensome excluding the not applicable responses. table 1 most burdensome mandates (most to least) source (local govt. commission mandate survey 2011–2012) rank cities, boroughs, first-class townships second-class townships rank 1 police and firefighter collective bargaining mandatory arbitration prevailing wage for public works projects rank 2 prevailing wage for public works projects police collective bargaining mandatory arbitration rank 3 competitive bidding & advertising requirements competitive bidding & advertising requirements rank 4 property exempt from real estate tax stormwater facilities and traffic control maintenance on state roads rank 5 right-to-know law compliance advertising or publication of legal notices rank 6 uniform construction code triennial education & certification separate specifications and bids for public buildings rank 7 stormwater facilities and traffic control maintenance on state roads right-to-know law compliance rank 8 police certification and training property exempt from real estate tax rank 9 advertising or publication of legal notices uniform construction code triennial education & certification rank 10 separate specifications and bids for public buildings act 101 of 1988 recycling requirements rank 11 act 101 of 1988 recycling requirements police certification and training 6 local government mandates in pennsylvania but just how burdensome do the municipalities find these issues to be, given that the state associations strongly urged action on 23 different mandates? table 2 summarizes the survey results for the top two ranked most burdensome mandates for cities, boroughs, and first-class townships. table 2 police and firefighter collective bargaining mandatory arbitration and prevailing wage for public works projects (cities, boroughs, and first-class townships) mandatory arbitration prevailing wage frequency percent frequency percent not burdensome 38 10.1 73 16.9 moderately burdensome 73 19.4 161 37.4 very burdensome 265 70.5 197 45.7 total 376 100 431 100 it is interesting to note that the not applicable response number for the collective bargaining question was 86 (18.6%) and for prevailing wage only 31 (6.7%). based on the field interviews, it was found that many municipalities do not deal with all of these mandates on a monthly or even yearly basis (author 2011). in fact, in examining the bottom ranked issues, separate specifications and bidding for public building projects and mandatory recycling, only 8.9% and 2.7% of larger municipalities found these mandates to be burdensome. likewise for the top two most burdensome mandates for more rural second-class townships, while 72.9% of respondents rank prevailing wage as very burdensome and 62.1% find police collective bargaining mandatory arbitration very burdensome only a little over 10% find recycling or police certification to be an issue. note that second-class townships do not have professional firefighters but rather rely upon a system of volunteer fire companies. in fact, upon examining the not applicable responses (table 3), 23% of second-class townships had no opinion on prevailing wage and fully 77% of second-class townships found the police collective bargaining mandate to be not applicable. this may be a reflection of the small size of many 2nd class townships, some of which provide no police protection at all, relying upon agreements with other municipalities or upon the state police force. 7 paula a. duda holoviak table 3 prevailing wage for public works projects and police collective bargaining mandatory arbitration (second-class townships) mandatory arbitration prevailing wage frequency percent frequency percent not burdensome 73 15.8 22 2.9 moderately burdensome 161 34.8 44 5.7 very burdensome 197 42.6 108 14.1 total 431 93.2 174 22.7 not applicable 31 6.8 592 77.3 total 462 100.0 766 100.0 so do size and municipal type matter? do different levels or types of municipalities have differing perceptions regarding the burden of mandates? since second-class townships are exempt from some mandates based on population size (recycling) or do not offer certain types of services (fire), we will examine two incorporated types of municipalities (cities and boroughs) and the more densely populated first-class townships to explore differences in perceptions based upon municipal type. chi-square analysis of the difference among the three groups was applied to all 11 mandates studied. in all cases the differences among the three types of municipal government (cities, boroughs, first-class townships) were statistically significant at the .05 level of significance. table 4 summarizes the results. table 4 summary statistics for cross tabulations (cities, boroughs and first-class townships) mandate chi-square probability cramer’s v police and firefighter collective bargaining 34.842 .000 .197 police certification 26.452 .000 .243 prevailing wage 18.383 .005 .143 tax exempt property 61.389 .000 .262 competitive bidding 25.448 .000 .168 rightto-know 20.057 .003 .250 stormwater and traffic control devices 29.281 .000 .180 separate bidding public buildings 68.576 .000 .277 8 local government mandates in pennsylvania table 4 (continued) mandate chi-square probability cramer’s v uniform construction code certification 13.269 .039 .122 recycling requirements 22.604 .001 .158 publication of legal notices 36.222 .000 .252 the strength of the relationship between municipal type and mandate rating varies from moderate to fairly strong. tables 5 and 6 examine the top two most onerous mandates as rated by the cities, boroughs, and first-class townships table 5 police and firefighter collective bargaining mandatory arbitration first-class township borough city not burdensome 0% 9.7% 1.9% moderately burdensome 0% 17.5% 11.5% very burdensome 100% 53.4% 86.5% not applicable 0% 19.4% 0% table 6 prevailing wage for public works projects 1st class township borough city not burdensome 18.8% 16.5% 13.5% moderately burdensome 6.3% 38.8% 25.0% very burdensome 75% 40.2% 61.5% not applicable 0% 4.7% 0% both first-class townships and cities find these two mandates to be very burdensome while boroughs find them less so and in some cases even not applicable to the daily or yearly functioning of boroughs. again, small rural boroughs have fewer police officers and more part-time officers. likewise small boroughs are less likely to engage in public works projects, which trigger the prevailing wage standard (holoviak 2011). 9 paula a. duda holoviak the large number of properties exempt from real estate taxes due to their nonprofit status can cause financial hardships for cash strapped municipalities. hospitals, schools, universities, public charities, and churches all require police and fire protection, and other municipal services, but they are not required to pay property tax under pennsylvania law. as seen in table 7, both first-class townships (most of which are table 7 properties exempt from local real estate taxes first-class township borough city not burdensome 6.3% 28.2% 9.6% moderately burdensome 12.5% 39.3% 15.4% very burdensome 81.3% 28.2% 71.2% not applicable 0% 4.2% 3.8% located adjacent to urban centers and are densely populated) and cities find this mandate to be very burdensome. boroughs that tend to be more rural are less inclined to rate this as very burdensome. discussion: rethinking the burden of mandates previous research has indicated that the best approach to the issue of local government mandates involves a partnership or collaborative approach between state and local government to address the issues of cost estimation, cost reimbursement, and best methods for meeting state standards for policy and services (grossback; zimmerman; kelly 1994, 1997). in fact, in a 1995 national civic review essay on lessons learned regarding mandates, kelly goes so far as to state that not only are mandates an essential part of governing but that local governments do not resist all state mandates (kelly 1995). what the pennsylvania study has shown is that the burden of mandates is really tied to the capacity of local governments to deal with the fiscal and administrative burdens generated by these mandates. according to the center for rural pennsylvania’s 2014 data, 99% of pennsylvania’s first-class townships are classified as urban while 80% of pennsylvania’s second-class townships are classified as rural. boroughs are split 56% urban and 44% rural. (johnson 2015). cities, with larger professional staffs and full-time executives, are less likely to see mandates as burdensome but more likely to see state requirements such as recycling or police and fire arbitration as part of the regular administrative activities of municipal government. similarly, boroughs, which tend to be smaller in population and more limited in administrative and governmental capacity, often do not 10 local government mandates in pennsylvania have to deal with many of these requirements. boroughs are less likely to engage in a series of capital projects or to maintain a large police or fire department. likewise, second-class townships who do find themselves subject to certain mandates such as police arbitration find them to be very burdensome upon their tiny staffs, which often include only three part-time supervisors and at best one professional manager and some clerical staff (holoviak 2011). overall, second-class townships often don’t deal with issues such as prevailing wage or police certification at all. these mandates simply don’t apply to them even if they exist on the legislative books. the type of local government caught most in the crosshairs of mandates appears to be pennsylvania’s first-class townships. more densely populated and often adjacent to a large urban center, these suburbs and exurbs are expected to provide a higher level of municipal services but are restricted under pennsylvania law from expanding their revenue sources. they are squeezed at both ends, unable to implement various taxes but required to meet all state standards for police, fire, prevailing wage, building codes, inspector certifications, etc. in conclusion, a one-size-fits-all approach to mandate reform in the commonwealth of pennsylvania will not address the real impact of mandates upon its local governments. only a targeted approach, taking into account the disparate impact of state mandates upon municipalities with very different administrative and fiscal capacities and very different populations may truly offer mandate relief. other states that rely on a one-size-fits-all approach, such as mandatory legislative review or cost estimation requirements, may want to revisit their mandate strategies. in pennsylvania, the local government commission study recommends the possible creation of a state level review commission for mandates, similar to efforts in other states (local government commission). while this may provide some relief, it will only be effective if the review takes into account the disparate impact of mandates based upon municipal size and municipal fiscal and administrative capacity. references author. may–june 2011. field interviews with pennsylvania local government. barnett, jeffrey, cindy l. sheckells, scott peterson, and elizabeth m. tydings. 2014. 2012 census of governments: finance-state and local government summary report, economy-wide statistics briefs: public sector. www.census.gov/govs/financegen (accessed february 4, 2015). gormley jr., william t. 2006. “money and mandates: the politics of intergovernmental conflict.” publius: the journal of federalism 36: 523–554. grossback, lawrence j. 2002. “the problem of state-imposed mandates: lessons from minnesota’s local governments.” state & local government review 34: 183–197. 11 paula a. duda holoviak johnson, jonathan, senior policy analyst. 2015. data provided by the center for rural pennsylvania, a legislative agency of the pennsylvania general assembly. kelly, janet. 1997. “institutional solutions to political problems: the federal and state mandate cost estimation process.” state and local government review 29: 90–97. kelly, janet. 1995. “lessons from the states on unfunded mandates.” national civic review (spring): 133–139. kelly, janet. 1994. “mandate reimbursement measures in the states.” american review of public administration 24: 351–373. lovell, catherine, and charles tobin. 1981. “the mandate issue,” public administration review 41: 318–331. martin, lawrence l., and jenna cawley. 2012. “the “new normal” for local government.” state and local government review 44: 17s–28s. state and local government commission. 2012. senate resolution 323 of 2010, study of statutory mandates placed on counties and municipalities (harrisburg: general assembly of the commonwealth of pennsylvania). st. george, james r. 1995. “unfunded mandates: balancing state and national needs.” brookings review (spring):12–15. u.s. advisory commission on intergovernmental relations. 1990. mandates: cases in statelocal relations. (washington, d.c.: acir). zimmerman, joseph f. 1995. state-local relations: a partnership approach, 2nd edition. westport, ct: praeger. 12 local government mandates in pennsylvania appendix a first-class townships, boroughs, and cities mandate ratings mandate not burdensome moderately burdensome very burdensome not applicable frequency % frequency % frequency % frequency % police & firefighter collective bargaining arbitration 38 8.2 73 15.8 265 57.4 86 18.6 police certification and training 146 31.6 167 36.1 87 18.8 62 13.4 prevailing wage for public works projects 73 15.8 161 34.8 197 42.6 31 6.7 property exempt from real estate taxes 113 24.5 159 34.4 157 34.0 33 7.1 competitive bidding and related advertising requirements 58 12.6 172 37.2 145 31.4 87 18.8 right-to-know law compliance 92 19.9 146 31.6 117 25.3 107 23.2 stormwater and traffic control device maintenance on state roads 106 22.9 174 37.7 93 20.1 89 19.3 bidding requirements for public buildings 151 32.7 168 36.4 31 6.7 112 24.2 uniform construction code education and certification 122 26.4 205 44.4 114 24.7 21 4.5 act 101 of 1988 recycling requirements 225 48.7 213 46.1 12 2.6 12 2.6 advertising or publication of legal notices 101 21.9 144 31.2 40 8.7 177 38.3 13 paula a. duda holoviak appendix b second-class townships mandate ratings mandate not burdensome moderately burdensome very burdensome not applicable frequency % frequency % frequency % frequency % police & firefighter collective bargaining arbitration 22 2.9 44 5.7 108 14.1 592 77.3 police certification and training 75 9.8 110 14.4 22 2.9 559 73.0 prevailing wage for public works projects 41 5.4 119 15.5 431 56.3 175 22.8 property exempt from real estate taxes 210 27.4 287 37.5 158 20.6 111 14.5 competitive bidding and related advertising requirements 58 7.6 267 34.9 400 52.2 41 5.4 right-to-know law compliance 206 26.9 314 41.0 204 26.6 42 5.5 stormwater and traffic control device maintenance on state roads 90 11.7 200 26.1 268 35.0 208 27.2 bidding requirements for public buildings 115 15.0 187 24.4 259 33.8 205 26.8 uniform construction code education and certification 220 28.7 264 34.5 102 13.3 180 23.5 act 101 of 1988 recycling requirements 219 28.6 204 26.6 51 6.7 292 38.1 advertising or publication of legal notices 119 15.5 269 35.1 342 44.6 36 4.7 1999 commonwealth.max 1999 commonwealth.max mm wea[ a journal of political science 1999 volume 10 issn 0890-2410 1999 commonwealth.max commonwealth: a journal of political science l\nttor~ thoma,~ jbaldino, wilkes ljnivptsity associate editors: martin colla, widener university donald g. tannenbaum, gettysburg college managing editor: harold cox, wilke's univprsity editorial review board aryeh bolwinlck temple university m. margaret conway university of florida roger h. davidson university of maryland jean b. elshtain university of chicago richard f. fenno university of rochester marianne githens goucher college susan w. hammond american university samuel krislov university of minnesota g. calvin mackenzie colby college michael j. malbin state university of ny, albany harvey c. mansfield, jr. harvard university kenneth f. matt gettysburg college craig n. murphy wellesley college mark p. petracca university of california, irvine elmer plischke university of maryland, emeritus h. mark roelofs new york university bruce m. russett yale university victoria schuck stanford university j. david singer university of michigan 1999 commonwealth.max contents volume 10 1999 isbn 0890-2410 before the constitution: interest groups from 1763-1789 jamesyoho 1 censorship of the internet: the first amendment lost in cyberspace gerard j. fitzpatrick pennsylvania research pennsylvania women's campaign communication: a content analysis of brochures from 1996 state assembly races stephanie greco larson regulation negotiation: lessons learned from failure to reach agreement a case study of the pennsylvania department of environmental protection paula a. duda a resource guide to the study of contemporary pennsylvania politics and government joseph r. marbach 29 56 69 1999 commonwealth.max about the authors paula a. duda, ph.d., is a graduate of the mpa program at the pennsylvania state university and a 1994 graduate of thc doctoral program at the state university of new york, binghamton. professor duda specializes in state and local government issues such as strategic planning, regulatory politics and rural economic development. she teaches political science at kutztown university. gerard j. fitzpatrick, ph.d., is a professor of politics at ursinus college. he has publications in the areas of public law and american political thought. he received his doctoral degree from the university of virginia. stephanie greco larson, ph.d., is an associate professor of political science ;mn coordinator of the women studies program at dickinson college in carlisle, pennsylvania. her research focuses on the content and consequences of political communication. joseph r. marbach, ph.d., is an assistant professor of political science at seton hall university in newark, new jersey. his areas of expertise include federalism. and slale and local governn.l.ent all.d politics. james yoho, j.d., ph.d., is an assistant professor of political science at wilkes university in wilkes-barrc, pcnnsylvania. hc rcceivcd his law degree from the university of illinois and his doctoral degree from the university of virginia. he has published several articles on interest groups and law. 1999 commonwealth.max acknowledgments commonwealth is published annually under the authorization of the pennsylvania political science association (ppsa) and sent to all members individual, departmental, and institutional. for subscription rates for all categories of membership, see separate announcements on pages 105-106. changes of address should be sent to: dr. donald buzinkai, treasurer, commonwealth, department of political science, king's college, wilkes-barre, pa 18711. postmaster: send notification of undelivered journals to this address. second class postage paid at harrisburg, pa and at additional mailing offices. copyright 2000 by the pelulsylvania political science association: issn 0890-2410. commonwealth will print free of charge camera-ready official announcements of up to one page of the american political science association, as well as northeastern political science association and its constituent members, and other organizations whose journals provide corresponding privileges to ppsa. contact the managing editor. advertising, reprint information, and rates are also available from the treasurer of the ppsa, dr. donald buzinkai, department of political science, king's college, wilkes-barre, pa 18711 1999 commonwealth.max the pennsylvania political science association officers executive council president kathleen mcquaid mansfield university first vice president craig m. wheeland villanova university second vice president brooke harlowe susquehanna university treasurer donald buzinkai king's college secretary w. wesley mcdonald elizabethtown college 1997-2000 gerard j. fitzpatrick ursinus college jeffery b. burnham university/of scranton 1998-2001 roy a. dawes gettysburg college jean wahl harris university of scranton 1999-2002 james g. denze washington & jefferson college stephanie bressler king's college ex officio members past president joseph melusky st. francis college commonwealth managing editur harold cox wilkes university commonwealth editor thomas j. baldino wilkes university commonwealth associate editors donald g. tannenbaum gettysburg college martin collo widener university ó guidelines for submission to commol\rweallli: a journal of political science commonwealth is a journal that annually publishes original re­ search from among all the subfields in the discipline of political science as well as articles of an interdisciplinary nature. it is open to a variety of approaches and methodologies, for it seeks manuscripts that are based on theoretical perspectives (empirical or normative) as well as those that advance knowledge employing an historical approach. scholars study­ ing pennsylvania politics and government are especially encouraged to submit manuscripts for consideration. manuscripts should be produced in microsoft word format. the pre­ ferred length is 15 to 30 typewritten pages, including notes, references, tables and any other appended material. tables and figures should be placed on separate, consecutively numbered pages following the text, with an indication in the text of their approximate placement; these pre­ cf'de any content notes, which are then followed by the list of references. all material should be double-spaced. three paper copies must be sub­ mitted (no disks or e-mail attachments), and to facilitate blind refereeing the author's name and affiliation should be on a separate cover page. the citation style used is the american political 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statistics: 1776-2002 the wilkes university election statistics project http://wilkes.edu/~wespl/ your attention is called to pennsylvania election statistics: 1776-2002, a website which provides the following information: • presidential election returns (county level), 1796-2000 • gubernatorial election returns (county level), 1790-2002 • senatorial election returns (legislature election), 1788-1911 • senatorial election returns (popular election), 1914-2000 • legislative directory with political affiliations, 1776-2002 this site provides detailed votes of minority parties where available and is the first resource to compile records of party affiliation for pennsylva­ nia legislators prior to 1870. the information provided has been com­ piled from public sources, which are cited. there are no restrictions on use, nor is there any charge. while this information is being placed in the public domain, it is requested that any use in published materials be acknowledged as originating with if the wilkes university election sta­ tistics project, dr. harold e. cox, director," together with a citation of the web address: http://wilkes.edu/ -wespl / additional areas to be added to this site include: • county boundaries • maps of legislative and congressional districts • u. s. house election returns for information, questions, suggestions, or corrections e-mail: hcox@wilkes.edu postmaster: if undeliverable, even after forwarding, return to: prof. gerard j. fitzpatrick dept. of politics u rsinus college collegeville, pa 19426 return postage guaranteed second class postage paid at wilkes-barre, pa and at additicinal mailing offices publication no.'10 ó disappearing democrats: rethinking partisanship within pennsylvania's electorate berwood yost franklin and marshall college pennsylvania has more registered democrats than republicans, yet repub­ licans colltrol most 0/ the slalewide elecled offices and oath ella/llbers uf lhe biute legislature. how is it possible that the democrats' registration advantage does not lead to more democratic electoral success? using a random survey ofpet1n­ sylvania voters and comparative questions on party orientation and party regis­ tration, this article finds that many of the state's voters identify with a political party that is different from the party in which they are actually registered. party identification is important because it is a better predictor of voting behavior than is party registration. the article finds that more registered democrats in pennsylvania ident~fy with the republican party than vice versa, making the democrats'registration advantage an advantage i11 name only. conducting surveys of pennsylvania's electorate requires a researcher to ask a question of political partisanship different from the self-identifi­ cation measures used in the university of michigan voting studies. the michigan measure captures psychological identification,1 but it does not provide an accurate accounting of democrats, republicans, and inde­ pendents when compared with pennsylvania's voter registration list. producing a set of registration figures that accurately reflects registra­ tion is important in pennsylvania. unlike a national survey, the state's .voter registration figures are readily available for all to see, meaning that reporters who cover politics and politicians and who read the polls in­ variably ask about the partisan distribution measured by political sur­ veys. in statewide surveys, they quickly discount polls that do not pro­ vide a mirror image of the state's partisan distribution. pollsters who have released polls in hotly contested election campaigns have been criti­ cized when their sample's partisan distribution did not approximate the state's known voter registration distribution. as a result of this criticism, the keystone poll measures actual party registration to ensure a partisan distribution of respondents that 111.atches the state's known registration figures. 2 using a two-part question, the keystone poll has repeatedly obtained samples of registered voters that approximate within expected error ranges the state's actual registration figures. recent developments in pennsylvania politics call this approach into question. since the 1950s, pennsylvania has been considered a competi­ tive two-party state, but in the 1990s the state became dominated by re77 publican officeholders. in 1998, registered democrats outnumbered reg­ istered republicans statewide by 445,000 voters, including a 500,000 voter registration margin in philadelphia and a 300,000 voter registration mar­ gin in allegheny county.3 yet, governor torn ridge was a republican. both of the state's two u.s. senators and two of its three row officers were republicans. in the state legislature, republicans held 103 of 203 seats in the house and 30 of 50 seats in the senate. in the 1998 election cycle, republican candidates for both the house and senate collected more to­ tal votes than did democrats.4 thus, measuring actual voter registration may no longer provide an accurate picture of the state's electorate. how can the democratic party have such a decisive voter registration edge, yet manifest such weak electoral performance? conversely, how can republicans win so many elections when they trail so significantly in the number of registered voters? some political analysts attribute the democratic losses to lower voter turnout among democrats. a greater percentage of republicans than democrats go to the polls, they say, erod­ ing the democrats' numerical superiority. other analysts theorize that a group of iireagan democrats," conservative on issues such as welfare spending and abortion limits, cross party lines to vote republican. an­ other explanation is that the state democratic party suffers from greater heterogeneity among it registrants than does the state republican party, making democrats less likely to maintain party unity, a trend that has been observed nationally (mayer, 1996). an unspoken assumption un­ derlies these explanations: that voters faithful to the democratic party exist in greater numbers, sprawling across the commonwealth like a sleeping tiger. given the right democratic candidate and the right is­ sues, this line of thinking goes, democratic voters will awake, voting with the full strength of their numbers, and deliver victory to their party. but is this widely held assumption true? are democrats still the majority party in the state, as the voter registration rolls indicate'? this article has three objectives. first, it will quantify the differences that exist in the makeup of the state' 5 electorate by using two different measures of partisanship. second, it will suggest which of these two mea­ sures of partisanship more accurately predicts election outcomes; finany, it will identify the characteristics of voters who register with one party but identify with another. the measurement of partisan identification partisan identification is one of the most important and frequently used concepts in the study of voting behavior (abramson and ostrom 1994). an earlier generation of scholars considered party identification worthy of study for two reasons. first, they expected party identification to be stable over time. second, they expected it to act as a cue by which 78 voters would evaluate political events (campbell et a1. 1964). this is not to say that party identification would not or could not change over time, but only that it would not change easily. furthermore, not all voters were expected to align themselves with a party; a sufficiently large number of voters would never have strong party attachments, making them subject to short-term political forces that could affect electoral outcomes (campbell et a1. 1964). party identification was thought to be the major device with which most people would decipher politics. the most stud­ ied, commonly used, and reliable measure of partisan identification was developed by the survey research center (src) at the university of michigan (abramson and ostrom 1994). the expectations for the party identification measure as originally designed are best summarized by its creators: the initial selection of a party may often be a response to nonpo­ litical pressures; once made, partisan choice tends to be maintained long after its nonpolitical sources have faded into oblivion. cur­ rent pressures arising outside the political order continue to affect the evaluation process, and from time to time they may contrib­ ute to a critical margin of political victory. yet for most of the people most of the time such contemporary forces turn out to be the mi­ nor terms in the decision equation. (campbell et a1. 1964,66) whether party identitication ouers such stability has been questioned in recent years. researchers who doubt the stability of party attachments believe that a great deal of short-term variability takes place in reaction to short-term forces, such as consumer confidence and presidential per­ formance, that is missed because of the timing of the michigan studies.s using another long-running series of survey data collected by the gallup organization, these authors have found that partisanship is subject to wide swings as a result of short-term forces. recent studies, however, refute this notion. some authors have found that short-term forces do not have a large impact on partisanship as measured by the michigan question.6 most scholars now believe that party identification is a very stable concept, as originally thought, and that the instability of partisan identification found by some authors was the result of measurement er­ ror created by question wording? mayer (1996, 97) summarizes current thinking on the subject in saying that most americans "develop a psy­ chological tie to one of the parties in their late adolescence or early teen years. and once formed, party identifications tend to be remarkably stable over the rest of a person's life." as a measurement tool, the survey research center's party identifi­ cation question has proven to be highly reliable, with only one-ninth of its variance resulting from measurement error (shickler and green 1997). 79 although the michigan guestion is considered a valid way to measure an important and stable concept, using it to measure the makeup of a single state's electorate has been problematic. the actual number of re­ publican and democratic registered voters within a state often differs from what is (ouflj uy surveys using the src measure. according to epstein (1986t this could mean that some people express a party prefer­ ence in registering to vote that they do not actually hold. it also means that some registered partisans adhere to their party label less strongly than do other registrants. why would this happen? there are several situations where one would expect to obtain registration figures that dif­ fer from those found in sample surveys. possible reasons include social pressures, job holding or seeking, or the desire to vote in the primary of a locally dominant party (epstein 1986). the desire to vote in primary elections is presumed to be especially important in a state like pennsyl­ vania, which has a closed primary system. epstein (1986, 247) reports, u \:;tcltes that most strongly encourage party registration, by firm1y dos­ ing their primaries to unaffiliated voters, record not only higher party registration percentages but also higher percentages of party identifiers than surveys in states with more permissive registration procedures." besides suggesting that measuring party identification is not the same thing as measuring party registration, the different figures resulting from party identification and party registration in some states raise some in­ triguing questions. if there are differences between party identification and party registration, do they change the state's partisan balance? which measure is a better predictor of voting behavior? what are the character­ istics of voters whose party registration and party identification differ? the remainder of this article seeks to answer these questions. methodology the data presented her come from a state-wide survey of 451 penn­ sylvania voters (sampling error of ± 4.6 percent) conducted between july 8 and 28, 1998. respondents for the survey were selected at random us­ ing a two-stage process. first, telephone households were randomly se­ lected using a random-digit-dialing sampling method (chummings 1979). once a residential telephone number was identified, a respondent within each household was selected at random using the last birthday method of respondent selection (salmon and nichols 1983). this article focuses on responses to three survey questions. the first question, involving nominal party registration, asked the following: "many people are registered to vote; however, many others are not. how about you? are you currently registered to vote at your present address?" all registered voters were asked, ii are you currently registered as a demo­ crat, a republican, an independent, or something else?"8 80 table 1 actual party orientation and nominal party registration actual party nominal party orientation orientation rep. ind. / other dem. total republican / lean rep. 90% (165) 49% (22) 11%(21) 50% (208) true independent 4% (8) 24% (11) 7% (14) 8(yo (33) democrat / lean dem. 6%(11) 27% (12) 81 % (154) 42% (177) total 44% (184) 11%(45) 45% (189) the second question, involving actual party orientation, used the tradi­ tional michigan formulation: "in politics, as of today, do you think of yourself as a republican, a democrat, or an independent?" those who said they were either a republican or a democrat were then asked, "would you call yourself a strong (republican / democrat), or a not very strong (republican/democrat)?" those who said they were indepen­ dent were asked, "do you think of yourself as closer to the republican or democratic party?" the party orientation measure was recoded for analysis; strong, weak, and leaning partisans were grouped together to produce a trichotomous measure. this recoding seems reasonable be­ cause independent leaners are attitudinally and behaviorally similar to weak partisans and different from "pure" independents (smith et al. 1995). a similar grouping strategy has been employed by others.9 the final question measured respondents' voting tendencies in re­ cent elections. the question asked: "thinking about the last few state and national elections, which best describes how you voted: straight democrat, mostly democrat, a few more democrats than republicans, about equally for both parties, a few more republicans than democrats, mostly republican, or straight republican?" in the tables that follow, responses were recoded to reflect a preference for more democratic can­ didates, more republican candidates, or about equal preferences. findings the survey reveals very different pictures of the electorate depending upon which measure of partisanship is employed. table 1 shows the sig­ nificant difference between nomina] party registration and actual party orientation. the party registration totals (bottom row) reflect the demo­ cratic party's nominal voter registration advantage. in contrast, the party orientation totals (right column) show the actual voler advanlage of the republican party. 81 table 2 votes in recent elections by actual party orientation recent votes more democrats equal actual party orientation rep. ind. / other dem. 5% (10) 17% (34) 14% (4) 61 % (17) more republicans 78% (158) 25% (7) 78(10 (134) 20% (34) 2% (4) a= .60 a2 = 290.476, df = 4, p. < .001 ninety percent of republicans identify with the republican party, 81 % of democrats are oriented to the democratic party, and 24% of indepen­ dents are tndy independent. conversely, a few republicans (10%), more democrats (19%) and most independents (76%) do not adhere to the po­ litical party indicated by their registration. finding that a large number of independent voters do not adhere to theilregistralion runs cou1lter tu expectations. if, as epstein (1986) suggests, people register with a major party in order to be able to vote in primaries, one might expect registered independents to be least likely to adhere to a major party label and most committed to their independent status. this simply is not the case. table 1 reveals a phenomenon that can be called the misaligned voter­ those who have registered in one party but now see themselves as more closely attached to another. twenty-one percent of voters are misaligned on the rolls as members of a party that they no longer ~l1prort. twlrp as many misaligned voters are registered as democrats (40%) or indepen­ dents (39%) than as republicans (22%) [a2 = 93.896, df = 2, p. < .001]. when respondents indicated how they had voted in recent elections, actual party orientation (table 2) proved a better indicator of their choices as measured by the statistic lambda particularly for democrats and ind~pend~nts than did nominal party registration (table 3).10 from a demographic standpoint, who are the misaligned? table 4 summarizes the results of a discriminant function analysis used to clas­ sify misaligned voters. the goal of discriminant analysis is to predict membership in two or more mutually exclusive groups from a set of predictor variables. the utility of discriminant function analysis rests with its ability to accurately classify subjects into groups. this information is conveyed by the classification rate, which indicates the percentage of subjects for each analysis that are successfully assigned to the group to which they actually belong using the relative discriminant function. dis­ criminant analysis identifies the variables that are most useful for pre­ dicting group membership. 82 table 3 votes in recent elections by nominal party orientation recent votes actual party orientation rep. ind. / other dem. more democrats 6% (10) 20'10 (10) 72% (138) equal 16<10 (29) 37% (18) 24% (46) more republicans 79% (143) 43% (21) 4°/c) (8) a= .51 a2 = 249.974, df = 4, p. < .001 table 4 shows that party registration and region of residence are the best predictors of being misaligned. using these variables to predict whether a person is misaligned yields 40% fewer errors than what would be expected if respondents were classified by chance alone (62 real errors versus 104 expected errors). variables such as age, education, political ideology, religion, marital status, and gender do not add any classifica­ tory power to the analysis. as table 4 indicates, there are more misaligned voters in southeast­ ern pennsylvania (bucks, chester, delaware, and montgomery counties) than in any other area of the state. misalignment for all parties is higher there than in the rest of the state and it is not confined to one party. table 4 results of discriminant function analysis for misaligned votersll nominal party registration misaligned not misaligned h,epublican democrat independent region of state southeast rest of state tau =.40 press's q = 199.50, p < .01 10% 19% 76% 30% 19% percent of cases correctly classified == 85 83 90% 81% 24% 70% 81% conclusions clearly, these findings should be considered provisionat for they rep­ resent only a single point-in-time survey that calls for replication. the find­ ings do, however, point to some conclusions that are worth considering. pirst, for some people, actual party orientation is different from nomi nal party registration. if replicated, this finding may have enormous im­ plications for how we observe and make sense of electoral behavior. in an era of near universal registration as a result of motor-voter legisla­ tion, party registration may have less relevance for making sense of po­ litical behavior. second, more of the state's voters are oriented to the republican party than the voter registration rolls suggest. if state voter registration num­ bers are adjustpd to tpf]pct political orientation, republicans outnumber democrats by a 250,000 voter margin. this is a profound difference in partisan alignment that by itself can explain the anomaly in pennsylva­ nia of republican hegemony despite democrat registration superiority. third, actual party orientation is a better predictor of voting behavior than is nominal party registration, although both measures perform well. unless both measures are considered, large differences in correlations with vote choice may be overlooked. moreover, because actual party ori­ entation is a better predictor of behavior it provides a more complete picture of the electorate. this conclusion strongly suggests that pollsters should consider using both measures when possible. fourth, some intriguing geographic patterns show up in the data. in particular, southeastern pennsylvania may be an area worthy of addi­ tional study since more misaligned voters appear there than anywhere else in the statc. why this particular region differs from others is not clear. a number of demographic factors including suburbanization and migration may be operating here. if so, they are important to understand­ ing better the role region may play in these findings. finally, the large number of independent voters not adhering to their registration confounds expectations. if people register with a major party in order to vote in primaries, as epstein (1986) contends, then registered independents ought to be less likely to adhere to a major party label and mort committed to being independent. yet they are not. the disjunction between independents and voter registration looms as one of the more perplexing findings reported. since they mostly vote for major party can­ didates, why do independent voters not register with that party? per­ haps their voting behavior is determined in large part by the paucity of independent candidates running for office in pennsylvania. additional research is needed to confirm these findings and to ex­ plore further other underlying questions. among the more tantalizing 84 questions are these: when and why did misaligned voters change their political orientation? why have they not changed their registration to reflect their new orientation? is misalignment a permanent or temporary condition? notes 1. the development and utility of the michigan measure is discussed in great detail in campbell et al. (1964, 67-96). 2. the keystone poll is produced at franklin and marshall college on behalf of the philadelphia daily news, the harrisburg patriot news, and the pittsburgh tribune review. the keystone poll is conducted four times each year among the state's voting age population. the pan was produced at millersville university between 1991 and 2002. 3. an registration figures are from official voter registration statistics (1998). 4_ tota1ing those races where two candidates werlo! running yielded the following results: state house, democrats = 1,174,147 votes, republicans = 1,317,571 votes; state senate, democrats = 607,634 votes, republicans = 705,301 votes. calculations by author from data published by the pennsylvania department of state. s. the most commonly cited source for this argument is mackuen, erikson, and stimson (1989). 6. see, for example, box-steffensmeier and smith (1996); green, palmquist, and schickler (1998); green and shickler (1993); mcallister and wattenberg; (1995); rice and hilton (1996); and schickler and green (1997). 7. abramson and ostrom (1994) and green, palmquist, and shickler (1998) found that the instability attributed to partisan identification was a result of the wording of the gallup question. because of its wording, the gallup macropartisanship measure is much more susceptible to changes resulting from short-term trends. there is a sizable literature related to the effect of question wording on survey response. schuman and presser (1996) provide an excellent introduction to this literature. s. the nominal registration item produced a partisan distribution comparable to that found within the state, according to registration statistics. the survey produced a sample with 200 democrats (44%), 190 republicans (42%) and 61 independent/ other voters (14%). the actual registration figures for pennsylvania put the distribution of voters at 48.6% democrat, 42.4% republican, and 8.9% other. 9. this grouping strategy appears in abramowitz and saunders (1998) and box-steffensmeier and smith (1996). 10. lambua (a) ~how~ the proportion by which error in predictin~ the value of the dependent variable is reduced by knowing the value of the independent variable (weisberg, krosnkk, and bowen 1996, 274). 11. statistical significance for each analysis is measured by press's q statistic and tau. press's q is a measure of the classificatory power of the discriminant function when compared to the results expected from chance (hair et a1. 1992). tau is a proportional reduction in error statistic that yields a :,tandardized measure of classificatory improvement (klecka 1980). 85 references abramowitz, alan 1., and kyle l. saunders. 1998. "ldeologkal realignment in the u.s. electorate." journal of politics 50 (3): 634-652. abramson, paul r., and charles w. ostrom. 1994. "question wording and partisanship." public opinion quarterly 58: 21-48. box-steffensmeier, janet m., and renee m. smith. 1996. "the dvnamics of aggregate partisanship." american political science review 90 (3): 567-581. campbell, angus, philip converse, warren miller, and donald stokes. 1964. the american voter, an abridgement. new york: john wiley & sons. cummings, michael k. 1979. "random digit dialing: a sampling technique for telephone surveys" public opinion quarterly 47: 233-244 epstein, leon. 1986. political parties in the american mold. madison, wi: university of wisconsin press. green, donald p., bradley palmquist, and eric shickler. 1998. "macropartisanship: a replication and critique." american political science review 92 (4): 883-899. green, donald p., and eric. shickler. 1993. "multiple-measure assessment of party identification." public opinion quarterly 57: 503-535. hair, joseph, rolph anderson, ronald tatham, and william black. 1992. multivariate data analysis with readings. macmhian: new york. klecka, william r. 1980. discriminant analysis. sage university paper 19, from the quantitative applications in the social sciences series. mackuen, michael b., robert s. erikson, and james a. stimson. 1989. "macropartisanship." american political science review 83: 1125-1142. mayer, wi11iam g. 1996. the divided democrats. boulder, co: westview press. mcallister, ian, and martin p. wattenberg. 1995. "measuring levels of party identification: does question order matter?" public opinion quarterly 59 (2): 259-269. official voter registration statistics. 1998. commonwealth of pennsylvania. department of state. august. rice, tom w., and tracey a. hilton. 1996. "partisanship over time: a comparison of united states panel data. political research quarterly 60 (1): 191-201. salmon, charles, and john spicer nichols. 1983. "the nex't birthday method of respondent selection." public opinion quarterly 47: 270-276. schuman, howard, and stanley presser. 1996. questions and answers i1l attitude surveys. thousand oaks, ca: sage publications. shickler, eric, & donald p. green. 1997. "the stability of party identification in western democracies: results from eight panel surveys." comparative political studies 30 (4), 450-484. smith, andrew, alfred tuchfarber, eric rademacher, and stephen bennett. 1995 . . "partisan leaners are not independents." the public perspective: october / november, 9-12. weisberg, herbert, jon krosnick, and bruce bowen. 1996. an int1'oductiol1 fo survey research, polling, and data analysis. 3rd ed. thousand oaks, ca; sage publications. 86 ó in the comivioi\!vtlealth gerard j. fitzpatrick, editor my predecessor as editor of commonvvealth/ dr. thomas ]. baldino, introduced volume 10 with the aphorism "all good things come to those who wait," for it had been 14 months since the journal's last publication. alas, volume 11 has taken even longer to appear. three rt'asons explain the delay. first, we received an unusually small number ()f submissions. second, those submissions were slow in corning. third, we had a demanding group of anonymous referees, many with national reputations in their fields, who rejected most of the submissions. thus, the cloud has a silver lining. getting published in commonwealth is not easy and the quality of those pieces that do appear is high, as can be seen in the five articles comprising this issue. in the lead article, dr. william f. byrne explores the political and aes­ thetic significance of some of the less known writings of the german political philosopher friederich nietzsche concerning the composer ri­ chard \vagner. dr. byrne believes nietzsche rejected wagnerian operas as "romantic" diversions from the pursuit of a more genuine human ex­ i~lence, a failing nielzsche regalded as sylnplomalic of ulollt:~rhily. al­ though he focuses on nineteenth century political thought, dr. byrne makes us think about the interplay among art, morality, and politics in nur time as well. dr. donald w. beachler examines the difficulties labor unions faced in lrying lo make al gore presidenlin 2000. weakelled loyally all the part of blue-collar voters to the democratic party explains much of the erosion of the new deal realignment during the past several decades. ur. beachler shows how insufficient turnout by this once stalwart com­ ponent of franklin roosevelt's famous democratic coalition, along with the idiosyncrasies of the electoral college system, conspired to bar the door of the white house to vice president gore. while politicians' speeches are often dismissed as calculated oppor­ tunism at best and mere bombast at worst, dr. daniel dileo shows that there can be more to political rhetoric than meets the eye. by applying a sophisticated form of content analysis to gubernatorial state-of-the-state speeches, dr. dileo reveals the degree of "realism" with which gover­ nors speak. he also considers how these speeches are affected by gover­ nors' party affiliation and political experience, state economic develop­ ment, public opinion, and divided government. our two articles on pennsylvania politics concern the role of race in the electoral process. both find that race matters but in ways more com­ plex than expected. dr. april gresham and dr. robert maranto analyze the degree to which white voters in permsylvania's conservative lehigh vrll1("y woulci support an african-american presidential candidate, spe­ cifically retired army general colin powell. they find such support to be contingent upon the voters' attitudes toward issues like affirmative action, immigration, and nafta, as well as concepts like authoritarianism and populism. dr. jeffrey kraus portrays philadelphia as having been really two cit­ ies with regard to the mayoral election of 1999. the democratic nomi­ nee, an african-american with twenty years of governmental experience, could only narrowly defeat his untested white republican rival in llti:::. overwhelmingly democratic city. dr. kraus finds that while the candi­ dates themselves concentrated on issues rather than race, voters sharply divided along racial lines, thereby rendering hollow fhiladelphia's sou­ briquet as the "city of brotherly love." let me close with three matters. first, i urge our readers to submit manuscripts to commonwealth for review and to persuade their colleagues to do so as well. with a larger number of manuscripts in the pipeline, we will be able to publish the journal more regularly and with more articles per issue. as i have noted, getting published in com­ monwealth is a challenge and success ought to be deemed an ac­ knowledgment of the strength of one's scholarship. second, i believe commonwealth is a quality journal in part be­ cause we use first-rate referees. wilhoul lheir ~ervice, not unly wuuld our articles not be as strong as they are, but production of an issue would not even be possible. i therefore take this opportunity to express my appreciation to the ten referees whose skill and selflessness helped to produce this volume. working with these talented people truly has been ajoy for me. finally, i wish to thank tom baldino for his support and guidance. by the time he stepped down as editor of commonwealth in 2000, tom had devuted more than a decade of his life to our journal, including five years as its editor-in-chief. when he asked me to take the editorial reins, i was flattered and terrified. my limited knowledge of the editorial process came from my experience as an author; i knew nothing about being an editor. all that i have learned lowe to tom. he patiently toler­ ated and expertly answered a never-ending flow of questions from me. in short, credit torn for the strengths of this issue and blame me for any blemishes. 1999 commonwealth.max 1999 commonwealth.max before the constitution: interest groups from 1763-1789 james yoho wilkes university the movement for american independence from great britain was closely associated with interest group acth'ity, and cannot wholly be understood without reference to the phenomenon. this association is documented with reference to a consistent definition of "interest group." lesser known is the role that interest groups played in the movement to adopt a new constitution. still, this paper ar­ gues, the growth of interest group activity during this era seemingly would have happened, although perhap.s to a le8ser extent, eoen without these movements. the year 1763 often is cited as a landmark in the political develop­ ment of what eventually beeame the united states of america, and rightly so: it is the year that parlian!ent first began to playa significant role in the management of the american colonies. among the many well-known repercussions of parliament's colonial policies is the resistance created in america by the sugar act of 1764 and, especially, the stamp act of. 1765. these were important preludes to the break with great britain that was formalized a decade later. it already has been aptly noted that the movement for american inde­ pendence from great britain significantly stimulated organizational ac­ tivity here and as will be shown in this study much of this was intel'f'st group activity,! a topic' whic'h has been hardly touched upon for this period (the most notable exception, by far, is olson 1992). although it is difficult to consider the other events of that time in america without at least some reference to the pervasive movement for mdependence, it seems clear that some of this increase in organizational activity would have oc­ curred anyway, later if not sooner. after all, interest group activity in america already had been steadily growing for nearly three centuries. for example, it seems likely that science would have continued to develop in lhi:ll age of enlightt:!iullt:!nt clild lead to a certain amount of associated organizational activity even without the movement for inde­ pendence. american doctors would have gotten around to organizing permanent medical societies sooner or later. the royal college of physi­ cians, which had 228 american members in 1770, already had been in existence since 1660 (cassedy 1976). one was attempted in america as early as 1735, in boston, but did not survive. additional attempts were made, successively, in new haven, new york, charleston, connecticut, massachusetts, philadelphia, and new haven again before one lasted: it was formed in 1766 in new jersey (mcdaniel 1959, 133-137; marks and 1 1999 commonwealth.max beatty 1973,194-197; burns 1976,288-289; shryock 1960,31-32; bates 1958,16-18). the revolutionary war (1775-1783) generally acted to in­ hibit this sort of organizational development, as no new societies were successfully organized until after the end of the war (shryock 1960,31; bates 1958,16-17; mcdaniel 1959, 136-137). these medical societies were involved in interest group activity. the medical society formed in charleston in 1755 convinced the legislature to enact a fee schedule, which created so much controversy that the soci­ ety dissolved (marks and beatty 1973,195). before they folded, both the connecticut (1763) and the second new haven society (1766-1769) lob­ bied the assembly, unsuccessfully; for physician licensing (starr 1982,44; hindle 1956,112). the new jersey medical society, already a pioneer, was more successful with its own effort of this sort: in 1772 it convinced the colonial assembly to license physicians (marks and beatty 1973,197-198; mcdaniel 1959, 136; shryock 1960, 32-33). the massachusetts medical society went one better: the charter that it obtained from the legislature in 1781 accorded licensing authority to the society (cash 1980,69-100; whitehill 1976,162; starr 1982,46). il also seemsinevllable lhal acllvlly by learned socielles woulj have increased in any case. the colonies' first scientific organization, the ameri­ can philosophical society, emerged in 1766 from extended inactivity. this emergence was mostly due to its new rivalry with the newly-founded american society for promoting useful knowledge, formed that same year by philadelphians interested in irnpwved agricultural melhods and the promotion of domestic manufactures and internal improvements. even before the merger of these organizations in 1769 (hindle 1956,127138; bates 1958,6-8), the philosophical society convinced the colonial leg­ islature to again fund observations of the transit of venus, this one oc­ culting in 1769 (dates 1958,134-135,150-152).' the rejuvenaled organiza­ tion mounted at least three additional successful lobbying efforts in the pennsylvania assembly in the next few years: to appropriate 1,000 pounds sterling for silk production in 1771, to grant 300 pounds sterling to the development of a planetarium by david rittenhouse in 1771, and to ap­ point rittenhouse as the colony's public astronomer in 1775 the last of which was postponed in the wake of the british-american skirmish in lexington (bridenbaugh 1955,413; hindle 1956,140-141,167-170,201-202). a second learned society, the american academy of arts and sciences, was founded in boston in 1780. it, too, was politically connected: its or­ ganizer was john adams, who convinced the continental congress in 1776 to encourage each state to establish such a society. his first organi­ zational task was to lobby for a charter from the massachusetts legisla­ ture; the first president, james bowdoin, later was elected governor (ford 1904-1937, vol 4,224; bates 1958,9-11; whitehil11976, 151-154). 2 1999 commonwealth.max other philosophical societies were just as politically connected: one formed in new york in 1784 elected the state's governor as its first presi­ dent and anothe:t;. formed in connecticut in 1786, elected the lieutenant governor as its president and held meetings at the same time and place as the assembly (hindle 1956, 273-274). the formation of the first permanent american agricultural societies, in both charleston and philadelphia in 1785, was long overdue: they had been forming in europe since 1723 (true 1929, 6-8; boorstin 1958,264; jameson 1940,51). these organizations had few farmers (rossiter 1976,279,284-285), but they had plenty of politically-connected members. the tirst 12 officers ot the charleston sociery included a future chief jus­ tice of the u.s. supreme court, five members of congress, four governors, and a signer of th" declaration of tnd"pendence. the first president of the philadelphia society served two terms as mayor; by 1794, the society was lobbying the state legislature to charter a state society (true 1929,7-8). that the competition all)ong the land speculation companies which had hardly yet begun would have continued in any case seems clear, too; even the french and indian war (1754-1763) and king george iii's 1763 proclamation that purported to limit the westward spread of coloni­ zation caused only a pause. even as they struggled to obtain as much land as pu:ssible, the land-speculation interest groups also began to reach for such collateral projects as the construction of canals, for example, the efforts by the ohio company as early as 1762 to promote a canal for the potomac river (dorfman 1947, vol. 1)24-125; woodward 1926,396; ferling 1988,333; nute 1923a98). this project would prove to have particular sig­ nificance for the substance and very existence of the u.s. constitu­ tion, as well as lead to the siting of what now is washington, d.c. the issue that led to the most signatures on any petition submitted to the new jersey assembly during the colonial era is one that could occur in any era: in 1774, 2,686 signed petitions offering one view or another on a scandal involving public funds and the east jersey treasurer (purvis 1986)83). stili, the movement for independence left an undeniable mark on the american interest group system no less than on other aspects of the po­ litical system. for example, it is an indication of how much political ac­ tivity generally increased dttring just the start of this era that petitions to the new jersey legislature increased from 76 a year to 187 between 1763 and 1768 (batinski 1987,7,185)87).3 early resistance to london's new colonial policies tn 1711:i, whilf' parliamf'nt rtill was mnridering the sugar act, the mer­ chants of massachusetts formed the society for encouraging trade and commerce, which spent the next five years lobbying against various trade 3 1999 commonwealth.max acts (pole 1%6,6:;; andrews 191/, 59·61; schlesinger 195/,59·60). the merchants of new york and philadelphia organized against the sugar act early the next year (srh10singpt 19.57,ho-hl; harrington 19h4):po-::l21). a popular campaign was commenced to boycott the british goods that were covered by the law; through hundreds of interest groups this cam­ paign would be waged, off and on, for an entire generation. none of this compares, however, to the american reaction to the stamp act of 17h5. hnndrerlr of orgl'l1'1b:ationl'l, mostly local, arol'lp thro1lghout the colonies. they were loosely associated; many of them called them­ selves the sons of liberty. these interest groups employed a variety of tactics, including petitions, demonstrations, and mobs (morgan and mor­ gan 1962, 157-262; conser 1986,22-88; cilje 1987,44-52). suddenly, peti­ tion campaigns pnmmpassed whole colonies (batinski 1987,186). the first interest groups of note comprised of women also were formed during this period: the daughters of liberty and, later, the anti-tea leagues concentrated on the boyc9tt of british imports (hymowitz and weissman 1978,26-27; evans 1989, 49).4 even the stamp act congress of 17h5, to which nine colonial assemblies sent delegates to organize fur­ ther resistance to the stamp act (see morgan and morgan 1962,137·148), qualifies as interest group activity because the assemblies were acting well beyond the scope of the govermnental authority granted to them." in any case, intercolonial interest group organization would undoubt­ edly have been furthered by the congress of the sons of liberty that was proposed by the new york chapter. the congress was cancelled when the stamp act was repealed in 1766 (decker 1964,67-68; starr 1991,232). despile the repeal, parliament was determined 10 assert lis authorlly over the colonies, which some leaders of the american resistance well knew and planned to counter (walsh 1959,40; morgan and morgan 1962,359-360). to a significant extent, the colonials' efforts took the form of interest group activity. for example, when the government in london dissolved the massachusetts and virginia assemblies in 1768, interest groups stepped into the breach by starting colony-wide organizations that, in effect, replaced the assemblies by providing a unified albeit unofficialvoice (morgan 1956,45-46, 49; brown 1970, 29-31). america was soon rife with interest groups, and they diverted much of the effort that once was directed toward london but with more success to the colonial assemblies (olson 1992,58-166). the same in­ . terest groups that dominated before 1763, business and churches, con­ tinued to lead in their level of organization. merchants tended to organize at the local level, including formation of the first chambers of commerce, in new york city in 1768 and charles­ ton in 1773. both engaged in interest group activity from the outset, one of the stated goals of the new york chamber being "procuring such laws 4 1999 commonwealth.max and regulations as may be found necessary for the benefit of trade in general" (stevens 1971,3-73; cherington 1976,491; harrington 1964,285287; briuenbaugh 1.955,287-288; schleisinger 1957,1.16, 296-297; davis 1.917, vol.1,102; egnal1988,185,265-266; sellers 1934,73). churches were more likely to organize on a broader scale, typified by the corresponding committees established by dissenters after 1769 (kammen 1975,289; olson 1992,162-163; brown 1970,45-46). there also were some new pitfalls: an annual convention for dissenters proposed for 1766 was nixed lest it too much resemble the stamp act congress and thus alienate british supporters (morgan 1962,244-245; bonomi 1986,207). the occasional cancellation aside, business and church interest groups now were more inclined to adopt the tactics of forming coalitions with other interest groups and appe<iling to the general public (olson 1992,164). in this, they were adjusting to the reality of what was a new interest group system in america, one that often required the cultivation of public opinion for success. ( historian alison g. olson refers to relatively informal mass-member­ ship interest groups that specialize in political action that is centered on a" cause" and feel free to openly criticize the government as "public opin­ ion lobbies," an apt term. her contention that public opinion lobbies were first developed by british politician-journalist john wilkes in the late 1760s (see olson 1992,136,143-146) is inaccurate, however, because the interest groups that arose in ameri.ca durine the stamp act controversy of 176!'i1766 and persisted even after repeal fit this description exactly; olson herself seems to acknowledge this elsewhere (see olson 1992,165).6 pub­ lic opinion lobbies may well have existed even in britain earlier than olson suggests; wilkes became a hero to groups like the sons of liberty long before his return to england from exile in 1768 precisely because he had so agitated public opinion against the government from 1762·1764. as olson notes, the propriety of public opinion lobbies, which, after all, had a purely political purpo~e, and their tactics were the tjubjeci. of some controversy. the questions served to disrupt some of the london lobbies that dealt with anglo-american matters (and which might have helped soothe the proverbial waters of the atlantic) by plunging them into internal disputes about tactics (olson 1982,22,32-41; olson 1983,384,386-388; olson 1992,136,143-153). even as this controversy de­ veloped, samuel adams and arthur lee speculated in 1771 that a system of allied societies could be developed at the local, colonial, and intercolo­ nial levels that could associate itself with wilkes' bill of rights society (cushing 1906, vol. 2, 234; henderson 1974,16-17), thus creating, in effect, an anglo american public opinion lobby. as adams began to develop these societies, while lee worked in london as the lobbyist for massachu­ setts, he avoided the controversy associated with use of the name "bill of 5 1999 commonwealth.max rights society" by adopting a name with which americans already had become comfortable: committees of correspondence (brown 1970,45-48). the rebellion matures the evolution of the movement for resisting london's colonial trade and taxation policies into one for american independence presents in­ creasingly thorny definitional problems. although obviously the colo­ nial assemblies and towns were governmental in nature and thufl would ordinarily be excluqed from classification as interest groups, they acted well outside of the authority conferred by the british government when taking such actions as organizing intercolonial committees of correspon­ dence (1772-74) or convening the first continental congress (1774). of course, the question of how much autonomy the colonies had was the very essence of their ongoing dispute with the british government, and eventually the colonists attempted to resolve the impasse by claim­ ing lolal autonomy. prior to this, however, the coloniet; ::;tayed ju::;t thgtt way; that is, within the british domain, even if only just within it. thus, the extralegal actions of the colonial assemblies and towns that is, those not authorized by the british government were interest group activity up to the point that the revolutionary governments were established.7 this classification rationale also disposes of the question of the status of the various committees of safety (or inspection), which were charged in 1774 by the first continental congress with enforcing nonimporta­ tion and, in the process, effectively assumed many governmental func­ tions; the committees were interest groups, too. definitional problems aside, there now was more organized political activity of an indisputably private nature afoot than ever before; the american interest group system never lost the pattern of steady some­ times even prodigious growth that was initially spurred by parliament's consideration of the sugar act in 1763. a particular notori­ ety is attributed to the interest group that held the boston tea party of 1773 (which provoked london into a showdown) by scholar karl schriftgiesser, who called it "the first pressure group in this country to attain immortality." one of the ironies of the era is that as the rebels assumed more and more governmental authority. they inevitably became the targets of in­ terest group pressure, and with the emergence of a nascent nationality immediately came interest group activity to match. consider, for example, the experience of the massachusetts delegates to the first continental congress, who were lobbied thrice while en route to philadelphia: by merchants, a local committee of correspondence, and the resistance co­ ordinating committee of new york city (schlesinger 1957,405-407; montross 1950, 31). while the congress was still in session, the delega6 1999 commonwealth.max tion was lobbied once again: a committee of interest group representa-' tives from several colonies headed by baptist minister isaac backus of massachusetts obtained an audience. the committee initially intended to lobby the entire congress, but decided against it on the advice of john adams. the sophistication of the committee's organization went beyond crossing colonial boundaries: it was not only intercolonial it was also interdenominational (hovey 1972, 203-213; mecklin 1934, 202-205; douglass 1965,140-141; mcloughlin 1967,128-133; mcloughlin 1979,vol. 2,912-913). disappointed with the results of their lobbying effort, in 1775 the hap­ tists contemplated a "continental congress of baptists" and, in 1776, one of all c'hri!':tian denomination,; (mrt.onghlin 19117,1:\7-138). " state campaigns after the declaration the former colonies now states had no sooner set up their own government shop than interest groups began to lobby them. the most impressive interest group campaign at the state level in the early independence era was ,commenced in virginia in 1776. the cam­ paign attempted to capitalize on the recent break with england by pro­ posing the dlt;establishment of the church of england and the reduction of restrictions on dissenting religious sects. over the years, those sects, and the interest groups that they formed, had been increasingly asser-' tive. for example, in 1772 they killed a toleration bill before the virginia assembly because it would prohibit evening meetings (lingley 1910,190197; james 1971,29-67; bailey 1979,150-152). the cornerstone of the effort in 1776 was the submission of petitions to the house of delegates seeking disestablishment. the most impressive of these, which was from the baptists, was 200 feet long and had 10,000 sig­ natures (little 1938,489; james 1971,68-75; singleton 1985,158-161; bailey 1979,153; mecklin 1934,264-268; ryland 1955,99-101). a presbyterian pe­ tition that was presented to the assembly may have been drafted by james madison, a new member of the virginia assembly who was already in the forefront on the issue (ketcham 1990,71-76; brant 1941,293-298). the an­ glicans were slow to react, and eventually mounted only a relatively weak counter-effort (james 1971,75-78; bailey 1979,153). by 1779 this neglect would prove to be fatal to continuing the establishment. the dissenter interest groups pressured the legislature in the ensuing years for additional measures, such as a successful effort to obtain recog­ nition of marriages performed by dissenting ministers (james 1971,84100,112-121; bailey 1979,53-154; mecklin 1934,2118-271). thf>~e matters came to a head in 1784 when a bill providing for a tax on virginians for the support of the former church of england, now the episcopal church, seemed likely to clear the house of delegates following a petition cam­ paign on its behalf; no opposing petitions had been received. when it 7 1999 commonwealth.max decided to postpone final action until the next year, the house invited virginians to express their sentiments on the matter (singleton 1985,157166; brant 1948,322-323,343-347; james 1971, 122-133; bailey 1979,153-154; mecklln1934,271-278). the opponents of the measure took this opportunity to organize their own petition campaign. madison, back in the state legislature after a stint in congress, drafted the best known of these petitions, his "memorial and remonstrance." it was printed in newspapers across virginia and contributed tu ,til eventual disparity in the signatures 011 petitions pre­ sented to the state legislature of about 11,000 to 1,200 in favor of madison's coalition. the momentum of the campaign was enough to defeat the gen­ eral assessment bill and then some; madison also austed off and passed the bill for religious liberty that was drafted in 1779 by thomas jefferson, who now was in france (hutchinsun1962-, vo1.8,295-298; bailey 1979,154158; lingley 1910,190-211; singleton 1985,166-168; pfeffer 1988,283-312). another impressive early interest group campaign at the state level was the continuation of the debt relief movement centered in western massachusetts, which grew out of various conventions first held in 1774 to protest against the british. the cuurt~' rule in uebl cullectiull cunlin­ ued to be the target of protests utilizing such tactics as interstate conven­ tions, petitions, and mobs following the conversion of massachusetts into a sovereign state in 1775-1776. this effort was sustained until early 1787, when it erupted into a full-fledged revolutionary movement in which 1,100 armed men, mu!:!tly farmer!:!, assaulted the slale arsenal and were routed by the state militia. this was shays' rebellion. lobbying congress during this era there were two particularly significant interest group campaigrl.s to influence the continent!'!l conerf'ilfl land speculation companies in its initial phase, the first of thf'flp two campaigns involved land speculation companies, often with overlapping investors and claims, that were intent upon establishing their ownership of land on the western trontier, especially in the ohio river valley. their political difficulties stemmed from the refusal of the state of virginia, which claimed juris­ diction over the land under the terms of iffl colonial charter and had the strongest jurisdictional claim of any state, to recognize their titles. the land companies were not outside their element when it came to politics, .. however, for their very origins were in lobbying campaigns. a group of political entrepreneurs that included benjamin franklin and his son, william, formed three ovprlapping organizations in 1763: traders, or their successors in interest, who claimed losses from indian raids during the recent wars and were eventually organized as the sufs 1999 commonwealth.max fering traders and the illinois and india.na l;md ('ompanif>s.after lohhy­ ing in london produced neither monetary compensation nor land grants from the crown (abernethy 1959,22-33; lewis 1941,19-59; philbrick 1965,28(35), the two land companies made large land "purchases" from native american tribes. in 1768 thf> indiana co. npgotiah,d a treaty with the six nations of the iroquois to receive, as compensation for losses suffered by traders at the hands of other tribes led by pontiac, nearly two million acres of land south of the ohio river in what now is west virginia. this eventually became associated with a larger claim that included this same land that was assf>:rtpd hy thp v,mdalia co., ali'lo known as thp walpole or grand ohio co., which had successfully lobbied the crown for a grant of land that included that claimed by the indiana co. the claims of the vandalia co. effectively collapsed with the break between great britain and the united states (livermore 1968,113-115; lewis 1941,59-154; abernethy 19."i9/l6-5r; bailey 1939,233-249). the illinois co. purchased two tracts of land from the illinois tribe along the mississippi river and north of the ohio in 1773 (abernethy 1959,28-30,118; philbrick 1965,16,28,42). a later spin-off of this group was the wabash co., which purchased lands to the east in 1775 from native americans. when the illinois and wabash companies merged in 1779, together they laid claim to some 60 million acres (smith 1956,160; abernethy 1959, 93-194, 202; philbrick 1965,42). thus, with the break of 1775-1776 it was a natural step for these cum­ panies to begin to lobby the continental congress. the investors of the illinois, wabash, and indiana companies were a veritable who's-who of political influentials in the "landless" states of pennsylvania, maryland, and new jersey, plus a few others. this was due, in part, to such tactics as the gift of stock made i111775 by the illinois co. to nine congressional delegates (abernethy 1959,121-122). the illinois-wabash co. set aside 12 per cent of its shares "for purposes most conducive to the [company's] general interest" (smith 1956,160). not surprisinglyi the investors in one or more of these companies soon included such political luminaries as charles carroll of maryland (con­ gress, 1776-1778); samuel chase of maryland (congress, 1774-1778, 1784, 1785); silas deane of connecticut (congress, 1774-1776); benjamin franklin of pennsylvania (congress, 1775); his son, william franklin of new jersey (governor, 1763-1776); joseph galloway of pennsylvania (con­ gress, 1774-1775); conrad gerard (french minister to the u.s., 1778-1779); patrick henry of virginia (congress, 1774-1776, governor, 1776-1779, 17841786); thomas johnson of maryland (congress, 1774-1777, governor, 17771779); william johnson of new york (superintendent of indian affairs, 1755-1774); henry moore of new york (governor, 1765-1769); robert 9 1999 commonwealth.max morris of pennsylvania (congress, 1776-1778, congressional superinten­ dent of finance, 1781-1784); william paca of maryland (congress, 17741779, governor 1782-1785); george ross of pelidsylvania (congress, 17741777)i james smith of pennsylvania (congress, 1776-1778)i samuel wharton of delaware (congress, 1782-1783); thomas wharton of penn­ sylvania (state council president, 1776-1777); and james wilson of penn­ sylvania (congress, 1775-1777, 1782, 1783, 1785-1787). and these were· only the investors who had been made public (jensen 1940, 211-212; jensen 1939,325i jensen 1936,38-39i abernethy 1959,29-30, 121-122,142,193194,210-211). while serving in congress, wilson took a fee in 1776 to ren­ der an opinion that was favorable to the indiana co.'s title claims. he became president of the illinois-wabash co. in l 1780 (jensen 1939,327; abernethy 1959,143-144,154; smith 1956,160). when he returned from london and entered congress in 1775, ben­ jamin franklin proposed a draft of confederation that implied congres­ sional jurisdiction over the western lands. however, virginia and the other "landed" states, with the assistal,1ce of new england, were able to pre­ vent the inclusion of a congressional jurisdiction provision in the draft of the articles of confederation that was submitted to the states in late 1777. by 1779, however, the leaders of maryland, the only state that had not ratified the articles, were making clear their willingness to hold out in­ definitely unless virginia relinquished jurisdiction over its western lands. the virginia assembly, which had been receiving (and ignoring) peti­ tions from the illinois, wabash, and indiana companies since 1776, then invited them to present their case at a joint session. before the hearing, the indiana co. was careful to first spread some stock and legal retainers among such prominent virginians as edmund randolph (attorney gen­ eral, 1776-86; congress, 1779-82; governor, 1786-88) and william grayson (state assembly; 1784-85 and 1788, congress, 1785-1787). (jensen 1940,206208; lewis 1941,199-216) however, this strategy was not successful. after the hearings, the leg­ islature declared invalid all land titles based on purchases from indians. to stave off ruin, the indiana co. tried, but failed, to get a consolation grant of land similar to that given earlier to the henderson co. by vir­ ginia and north carolina. the legislature also declared invalid all land grants made by the crown, which finally ruined whatever hopes were left for the old ohio co. under its grant of 1749. george mason, a mem­ ber of the assembly who doubled as the lobbyist for the ohio co., was unable to obtain even a hearing for the company, which claimed much of the same land as the indiana co. but had never been able to perfect its title through the required surveys. however, mason did present the case against the indiana co. in the assembly, sponsored the land legislation adopted by the assembly that year, and was the primary author of 10 1999 commonwealth.max virginia's subsequent complementary proposal to congress for resolv­ ing the western land problem. the ohio co.' s old political rival, the loyal co., benefited the most from virginia's policies and also had lobbyists who were active before the state assembly during the critical decisions of 1779 (rowland 1964, vol. 1,333-336; rutland 1970, vol. 2,549-550; brant 1948,92-93; lewis 1941,217-218; sosin 1967,153-158; jensen 1940,208-209; abernethy 1959, 217-229; bailey 1939,253-279; james 1959,165-170). vir­ ginia moved immediately to open a land office to accommodate western land purchases, which set the stage for a renewal of the lobbying cam­ paigns directed at congress. the british invasion of the lower atlantic coast in 1780 imparted fresh incentive to resolve the standoff. in 1781, it finally was agreed that mary­ land would ratify the articles and virginia would cede its lands north and west of the ohio river. however, virginia retained the conditions that it had attached to its earlier cession, one of which was that the land would be under the control 9£ congress and used to create new states rather than to add to the territory of existing states. another condition wa" that the titles from indian purchasp" hp rlpcjared void, which cleared the way for confirmation of the titles of the competing virginia specula­ tors. this delayed acceptance of the cession by congress and set off a flurry of petitions to that body. as historian irving brant has noted, this was "a notice of congressional jurisdiction in western affairs." although the land speculation companies were hardly the only fac­ tor accounting for the congressional politics of the time, even on the west­ ern lands, b their lobbying was significant enough that in 1782 arthur lee of virginia wrote to fellow congresslumtl uelegate samuel adams of masschusetts that /i these agents [of land companies] are using every art to seduce us and to sow dissention among the states, i think they are more dangerous than the enemy's arms" (burnett 1963, vol. 6,331). another indication of the new authority of congress over western lands was the submission in 1782 of the boundary dispute between i'ermsylva­ nia and connecticut that underlay the wyoming valley land title disputes to a court convened under article ix of the articles of confederation, which was the only case ever decided under this provision for resolving disputes between states (boyd and taylor 1930-1971, vo1.7,xx-xxxiii). the extent to which the state of cormecticut's position on the matter was tied to that of land speculators is reflected in the payment by the susquehannah and delaware land companies of half of the state's legal costs in the mat­ ter and their hiring as their own agents the same men who represented the state government in the litigation. wilson, of the illinois-wabash co., was om' of the attorneys hired to represent the state of pennsylvania (boyd and taylor 1930-1971, vol. 7,xi,35-136; smith 1956,171-177). jurisdiction over the disputed area was awarded to pennsylvania by the article ix 11 1999 commonwealth.max court. however, many of the wyoming valley settlers who had bought land from the susquehannah company still refused to move, and much blood was shed. pennsylvania finally put the matter to rest in 1787 by confirming those titles on lands settled prior to 1782. acceptance by congress of the land cessions of the landed states, which was essentially on the terms proposed by virginia, did not come until 1783. while acceptance resolved many of the land title controversies, it also crf'atf'd a vilst nationhi doid<lin that was at the disposition of con­ gress and initiated the second phase of the land speculators' lobbying of congress, which involved competing for grants from congress. investors immediately began to form new land companies to capital­ ize on these opportunities,the most successful of which was the ohio company of associates. one of the first acts of the company after it!'! or­ ganizational meeting in 1786 was to hire samuel holden parsons to lobby congress for a western land purchase on favorable terms. parsons was ineffective, but his replacement, maryasseh cutler, was quite successful. cutler allied himself with william duel', a former member of con­ gress (1777-78) who was the secretary of the u.s. treasury board. cutler and duer became so optimistic about their lobbying prospects that in­ stead of the original objective, congressional agreement to sell 1.5 mil­ lion acres at the statutol"y price of $1 each, lhey suught lo buy 5 million acres at $.67 each for the ohio company of associates in what is now southeastern ohio plus an option on another 3.5 million acres at the same price for yet another new group of investors. a congress that was hun­ gry for capital agreed, and even allowed the ohio company of associ­ ates to pay only ha1£ of thc purchasc price down and the other half when the land survey was completed. additionally; payment could be made in government securities worth about 12 per cent of face value (myers 1983,107-110; davis 1917, vol. 1,130-138; belote 1971,12-21; cutler and cutler 1888, vol. 1,228-242,292-305; roseboom 1976, vol. 5,43-144). the terms of this deal were worked out at the same time as the details of the northwest ordinance of 1787, described by historian richard b. morris as "the most important piece of legislation ever enacted by the congress of the confederation." cutler drafted much of the ordinance, perhaps including its prohibition of slavery in the northwest territory (finkelman 1989,8-71; c":lltl/"t and clitle.r 1 r88, vol 1,242,292-305). in order to gain a key ally, cutler also successfully proposed that arthur st. clair, the president of congress, be named as the first gover­ nor of the new ohio territory (davis 1917, vol. 1,134; cutler and cutler 1888, vol. 1,288,301; morris 1987,229). public creditors from the time that he was appointed as the superintendent of finance 12 1999 commonwealth.max by congress in 1781, robert morris was determineu to raise money for the war effort. first he stopped paying interest on loans to congress and salary to the soldiers of the continental army at least partly because he hoped that this would build enough public support to bring about an increase in public revenue (morris 1987,41; ferguson 1961,140-143,149). when that did not succeed, in 1782 he organizeu a l:uiiliilittee of public creditors in philadelphia that was assigned the task of circulating in all of the rtates written materials that advocated lobbying for public rev­ enue increases. organized activity by public creditors then occurred in new jersey, connecticut, new hampshire, and, most notably; new york. the new york group, which was organi:l:eu by alexamlel' harnilton, among others, resolved to promote conventions of public creditors in each of the counties of the state, in each of the states, and nationally. however, these conventions were never organized (ferguson and catanzariti 1973, vol. 5,47,200,357,398-399,483-484,495,514,548-549,588589,598, vol. 6,xxix, xxxvii,36,4(8-51,53-54,56,62,82, 235,603-604,657,695697, and vol. 7,xxvii-xxx, xxxv,142-146,332, 366,413-414,417418,426,468,513; ver steeg 1954,156,172; ferguson 196u48-152; jensen 1950, pp.66-67; syrett and others 1961-1987, vol. 3,71-177,290-293; mcdonald 1982,44; gerlach 1987,483-484). this omission may have been due to the sudden presentation of what appeared to be a better opportunity: a deputation of army officers came to congress with a threatening petition demanding financial relief. this was by no means the first lobbying effort by army officers: an organiza­ tion formed by virtually all of the generals had successfully petitioned congress in 1779-80 £01' half-pay for life for all officers who finished out the war (myers 1983,3-5). hamilton, who had just entered congress, and gouverneur morris, a former member of congress (1777-78) who now was the assistant con­ gressional superintendent of finance, worked to coordinate the officers' lobbying with that of thc other publie creditors' groups (henderson 1974,332-334; ferguson 196u57-160; miller 1959,92-97; myers 1983,6-10; mcdonald 1982,44-47; skeen 1974,274-275;kohn 1970)93-194). soon the officers threatened to refuse to disband, the war now being all but over. in a private letter, gouverneur morris wrote: the army have swords in their hands. you know enough of man­ kind to know much more than i have said and possibly much more than they themselves yet think of ... although i think it probable that much of convulsion will ensue, yet it must terminate in giving the government that power without which government is but a name .. . on the wisdom of the present moment depends more than is easily imagined and when i look round for the actors let us change the subject (morris 1980,485-486). 13 1999 commonwealth.max commander-in-chiefwashington had been slow to learn of the threat, which he believed had been "managed with great art." he attended the famous meetin.g of the officers at newburgh, n.y., in early 1783 despite his lack of an invitation and quieted the scheme with a simple but devastatingly effective emotional appeal (fitzpatrick 1931, vol. 26,216217; kohn 1970,202-212; myers 1983,2,10-13; flexner 1965,500-508; flexner 1969,234-235), a month after the showdown at newburgh, and just before the army disbanded, many of the same officers organized the society of the cin­ cinnati, a national officers' organization whose activities were to include lobbying for the compensation of the war's veterans, washington was selected as its first president. two months later, congress was petitioned, unsuccessfully, to grant western lands to the recent war's officers by 285 officers; 87 per cent of them became members of the society, by the end of 1783, the society had organized chapters in all 13 states (myers 1983,1519,25,31-34), i in the society of the cincinnati, the united states had its first national interest group of any permanence. it was, essentially, the only national organization of any type other than congress (mcdonald 1965,33; myers 1983,ix,92; flexner 1969, 66). the society immediately proved to be controversial, both externally and internally. public meetings that criticized the society and its potential influence occurred in connecticut and rhode tsland and criticism was heard in several state legislatures uensen 1950,262-264; myers 1983,50-52).9 at the society's first national convention, in philadelphia in 1784, wash­ ington proposed seven changes to the society's constitution, including a deletion of all references to political activity, however, the titular ban on political activity often was ignored and the changes were not ratified by the state chapters until 16 years later (ferling 1988,348-349j myers 1983,5863,77-81), the extent ofthe political connections of the society's 2,300 mem­ bers is evident in this statistic; they compdsed 21 of lhe 55 delegates who attended the constitutional convention of 1787 (myers 1983,97), the push for a national commerce power the movement that resulted in the adoption of the u.s, constitution was fueled, in significant part, by interest groups that came forward to press for the adoption of a national power over commerce. in 1784 a philadelphia merchants' committee led by tench coxe be­ gan to organize a statewide chamber of commerce and a national cam­ paign to promote business, one of its first efforts was to convince both the pennsylvania assembly and a congressional committee formed at the group's request to endorse greater congressional power over navigation and foreign trade, when congress moved from trenton to new york 14 1999 commonwealth.max city in early 1785, it was met by an address from "thf' artificers, trades­ men, and mecharucks of the city" and two petitions from the local cham­ ber of commerce requesting such a measure. in response to the petition, the assembly enuotl:jeu the idea. the participants in a boston merchants' group elected john hancock, recently the governor, as its chair and agreed to organize the rest of the state behind the cause and petition congrf'ss. there also was a second boston group, the association of tradesmen and manufacturers of the town of boston, which began to contact simi­ lar ur~gi.nlzations in other citiet;; am;wers were received from newport, new haven/ new london" hartford, baltimore/ and charleston. the dlarleston chamber of commerce soon received communications on the issue from both the new york chamber of commerce and the boston merchants' group, following which it endorsed the idea and sent a peti­ tion to the state legislature (crosskey an.d jeffrey 1980,166-183,203-205,237; morris 1946, 203-204; morris 1987,151; mcdonald 1992,378; kornblith 1988,355; cooke 1978,2-74; beard 1986,40-41; steffen 1984,82-84). there was other interest grejup activity that took a less direct route and that arguably had as much eventual effect on the form and nature of ameri­ can national government. upon washington's resignation as commander­ in-chief of the continental army, he resumed a private life which included the promotion of his long-standing dream to build a canal on the potomac river that would link the drainage of the chesapeake bay with that of the ohio river. in 1785 he successfully lobbied the legislatures of maryland and virginia to grant a charter to the potomac canal co., of which he became the first president. he served as either the company's president or board chairman until his death in 1799 (ambler 1936,187-190; wood­ ward 1926/396-397; dorfman iy47/ vol. i, 248-251; ferling 1988,333-334; flexner 1969,73-77; brant 1948, 365-374; bacon-foster 1912/33-60). at the suggestion of washington/ thomas jefferson, and madison, the state legislatures of maryland and virginia called a convention in the spring of 1785 to discuss how they might share the potomac river and chesapeake bay. washington capitalized on confusion concerning the arrangements for the meeting to score a lobbyist's coup: he convinced the delegates to make use of his estate at mount vernon. later/ the df'l­ egates cooperatively endorsed the proposed potomac canal in their re­ port on the convention to their legislatures. the convention was impor­ tant to the movement £01' it llatiullal t:ummerce power because the par­ ticipants agreed to meet again/ following which the maryland legisla­ ture decided to also invite the other two states whose participation in a potomac canal would be desirable/ pennsylvania and delaware (hendrie!< 1937,11-13,50-54; rowland 1964/ vol. 2, 81-82; crosskey and jeffrey 1980,219221,225~229i dorfman 1941, 248-251; flexner 1969/73-77,89-90; jackson and twohig 1976-1979, vol. 4)07-108/140; ketcham 1990)69-170; 15 1999 commonwealth.max brant 1948,365-376). the virginia legislature then topped even that, ex­ tending invitations to all 13 states to what became known as the an­ napolis convention of 1786, whose delegates convinced the continental congress to convene the philadelphia convention of 1787. it i~ for utis, as well as its support of interstate commercial cooperation, that the re­ port of the mount vernon convention, shaped significantly by washing­ ton, one of the first "super-lobbyists," has been termed by burton j. hendrick as "next to the constitution itself, the most historic paper in our constitutional history."lo the push for the annapolis convention was fueled in virginia later that year by additional interest group pressures there for a national com­ merce power. in november 1785 alone, the state assembly received five petitions supporting such a measure after the constitution was submit­ ted to the states in 1787, interest groups such as these were important supporters of ratification (crosskey and jeffrey 1980,221-222). interest groups and the constitutional convention i the relative lack of interest group pressures at the constitutional con­ vention of 1787 is due, in large part, to the secretive nature of the pro­ ceedings, and that appears to have been much the purpose of the se­ (,1'p(t judging by the apparent relative lack of interest group influence at the convention, the attempt to insulate the delegates was about as suc­ cessful as could have been hoped. of course, virtually all of the delegates to the convention had interest group affiliations of one sort or anothel~ and most had several. however, thpy do not appear to have overtly injected these affiliations into their roles as delegates; if they did, no documentary record appears to have been left. even charles a. beard, who made his famous argument in 1913 that the delegates were primarily influenced in their decisions by their comparative knowledge of and affection for realty versus personal­ ity, did not describe any organizational activity by the delegates (beard 1992,73-151).11 even the society of the cincinnati, with its 21 members among the del­ egates to the convention, was mentioned only twice on the record, and at the time the society was holding its second national convention elsewhere in philadelphia. recognizing the delicacy of the situation, washington did not participate in the society's meeting despite being its president, limit­ ing himself to a single dinner with its members. the cincinnati who were delegates to the constitutional convention did not vote there as a bloc (daves 1925, vol. 1; myers 1983,91-100; farrand 1937, vol. 2,114,119).12 although it is common to assert the effect that shays' rebellion (178687) had on the convention, this effect did not ensue from any direct at­ tempt to influence the delegates. 16 1999 commonwealth.max thf> only general category of interest group that made anything re­ sembling a concerted effort to lobby the constitutional convention was the anti-slavery societies, and they were decidedly ineffective despite having influential members of their own among the delegates. standing abolitionist societies were just beginning to appear on the political scene. the first of these displayed what may almost be termed the classic american pattern: the pennsylvania abolition society was organized in philadelphia (in 1774, and reorganized in 1787) and ben­ jamin franklin was its president; benjamin rush and coxe also were officers. it soon convinced the state legislature to move toward the gradual emancipation of slaves. the second such group, the new york society for promoting the manumission of slaves, was formed in 1785 with john jay as its president and alexander hamilton its secretary. the group lob­ bied the state legislature, unsuccessfully for many years, for abolition gensen 1950, pp.135-136; zilversmit 1967,125,147-151,159-163; syrett and others 1961-1987, vol. 3,597,604,654; van doren 1938,774-775; cooke 1978,92-93; bruns 1977,84-385,504-506,512-515). of course, opposition to abolition was even stronger in the south than in j:'ennsylvania or new york. in virginia, a 1782 statute permitting manu­ mission in some circumstances and petitions for emancipation submit­ ted hy methodists to the virginia assembly in 1784-85 prompted an im­ pressive backlash in 1785 in the form of proslavery petitions with 1,244 signatures (schmidt and wilhelm 1973,133-146; morris 1987,181; bailey 1939,123-124; runs 1977,506-507). the explosiveness of the issue was offered by franklin and hamilton, both of whom were delegates, to explain why they squelched the lobby­ ing efforts of the abolition societies of which they were officers. when franklin, who, at that point, had only lent the considerable prestige of his name to the society without actively participating, was asked by the pennsylvania society to present to the convention a petition to abolish the slave trade, he suggested that it be let to "lie over for the present." while temporarily away from the convention in new york, hamilton persuaded the society there to forego submitting an antislavery petition that jay had drafted (dillon 1974,15-17; zilversmit 1967,166; drake 1950)01-102; morris 1987,181; cooke 1978,93)10; morris 1985,192-194; finkelman 1987,188-226). there may well have been more interest group lobbying at the con­ vention than can easily be detailed. for example, coxe lobbied the del­ egates to support a strong national power over commerce even while leading the formation of the pennsylvania society for the encourage: ment of manufactures and the useful arts, the functions of which in­ cluded lobbying. coxe also demonstrates that organizational affiliations can work both ways: he also lobbied the delegates against the presenta17 1999 commonwealth.max tion of the antislavery petition of the pennsylvania abolition society of which he, too, was an officer (coxe 1982,33-62; cooke 1978,92-93,102108,110). one interest group lobbyist who did make an appearance in that capacity was manasseh cutler of the ohio company of associates, who still was orchestrating his congressional triumph in new york (cut­ ler and cutler 1888, vol. 1,253-254,267-270; van doren 1948, 128-131; morris 1985,192). the ratification campaign the news blackout that was imposed by the philadelphia convention of 1787 began to show holes even before adjournment in september. re­ ports of the proceedings leaked by the allies of new york gov. george clinton led to the publication of various newspaper articles that criti­ cized the proposed constitution even while it still was being wdhen. after adjournment but before the delegates dispersed, some of the supporters of ratification began to confer concerning a coordinated strategy; 13 thus launching what became one of the most significant interest group cam­ paigns in american history. disputes about the nature of the oilsdiliz;ation fofmeu by the feueral­ ists to advocate ratification usually focus on whether it was a political party. however, the federalists were not a political party, as no "federal­ ist" candidates were nominated for either the state ratifying conventions or any other public office. the candidates in the popular elections for the state ratifying conventions often inuicateu where they stood on ratifica­ tion, but they did not claim to be the candidate of a political party. neither can the federalist organization have been a precursor of po­ litical parties, since a legislative bloc did not play an important role in it. for example, of the authors of the federalist madison, hamilton, and, until he took ill, jay only mauison was even alllelllbel' uf a legislature, having been returned to congress in late 1786. madison's work for the federalists was outside the scope of his duties as a delegate to congress, which merely submitted the proposed constitution to the states for rati­ fication without an endorsement and met only occasionally while the federalist braintrust operateu. neither was this work within the scope of the duties of hamilton and madison as delegates to the constitutional convention, which had adjourned. nor was it within the scope of being a delegate to a state ratifying convention, as which they all served; the elections for the conventions had not yet been held. scholarly recognition of the feuerallsls as an interest group is rare. a dear explanation of the basis of the classification is even more rare. david b. truman, for example, seems to base it on the federalists' work in the state ratifying conventions. however, the ratifying convention delegates were public officials and so this particular portion of the ratification cam18 1999 commonwealth.max paiq1l was public activity, that is, it was not interest group activity. in any case, while in new york city during the fall and winter of 1787-1788, thp supporters of ratification mpt rpgnlarly together, they acted as a national coordinating committee for the pro-ratification forces, pass­ ing on all sorts of information, including their suggestions for strategy. in order to marshal the arguments for ratification, jay, hamilton, and madison wrote the series of newspaper pieces that became, collectively, the federalist. madison, of course, wrote federalist 10, the first imporhmt discussion of american interest groups. 14 the more interesting aspects of the federalist organization include a pony express between poughkeepsie, the site of the new york convention and f):amilton's coordinating ef­ forts, and other convention sites (jensen and others 1976, vol. 10,1572,1672-1675,1723-1725). the antifederalists also formed a national interest group, coordinated on clinton's behalf by john lamb, an organizer of the sons of liberty in new york a quarter-century earlier and a gent:!hii juring the war uf ini dependence (leake 1971,304-336; mcdonald 1965,213,222,224-226; boyd 1979,128; ross 1933,555-556; main 1964,221,226,235-236,244,252; jensen and others 1976, vol. 9,788-793,811-829,845-846, and vol. 10,1547n,1572, 1589-1590, 1630). the antifederaiists had their own pony express system (jensen and others 1976, vol. 9,845-846, and vol. 10,1589n). interest groups were active during the popular elections for the state ratifying conventions. for example, madison left new york in order to campaign for election as a delegate to the virginia ratifying convention after learning that his old supporters, the baptists of orange county, were upset that the proposed constitution neglected to guarantee rcii gious liberty. on his way home, he visited john leland, a prominent bap­ tist minister who had petitioned against ratification. although leland and the virginia baptist organization remained opponents of ratification, he was converted enough by madison to withdraw himself as a candi­ date and endorse madison (hutchinson and others 1962-, vol. 10,515516,540-542; ketcham 1990,250-251; ryland 1955,133-134; mecklin 1934,150-158; jensen and others 1976, vol. 8,424-427, and vol. 9,596n). the mechanics' association of baltimore successfully supported a feder­ alist candidate there (steffen 1984,90-92). predictably; various group petitions were sent to the conventions in new jersey (mcdonald 1992,123), delaware (jensen and others 1976, vol. 3,107-108), and pennsylvania (jensen and others 1976, vol. 2,298-299,309311,316-319). group petitiqll~ supporting ratification were sent to the state assembly in delaware (jensen and others 1976, vol. 3,54-55) and new jersey (jensen and others 1976, vol. 3,135-137) before there even was a chance to organize the ratifying convention. ad hoc citizens' groups were formed. in massachusetts, a mass federal19 1999 commonwealth.max ist rally was staged in bostuil fuf the sole purpuse uf gaining the endorse­ ment of samuel adams, who was a delegate, and boston's tradesmen en­ dorsed the constitution in a mass meeting (wright 1961.174; mcdonald 1965,216; jensen and others 1976, vol. 15,289-295. in pennsylvania, several local antifederalist societies were formed, and coxe, james wilson, and rush {oimed the fedefali1:it cuunlillalillg committee (cuoke 1978, 111; jensen and others 1976, vol. 2,306-309,695-696). in virginia, a federalist society was formed in berkeley county (jensen and others 1976, vol. 8,3,22).15 standing organizations of one sort or anothe! also debated or ex­ pounded upon the merits of the proposed constitution. in connecticut, the congregational clel'gy uf new havell cuunty endursed the consti­ tution (jensen and others 1976, vol 3,351.) in virginia, the issue was dis­ cussed by the aforementioned baptists, the union society of richmond, the danville (ken.) political club, the "court party" of danville (ken.), washington county's society of western gentlemen, and the political society of richmond (jensen and others 1976, vol. 8,3,170-173,292,408i 417,433-436,472-474,vol 9,769~779, and vol 15,561-562). in north carolina, a baptist minister denounced the constitution to his congregation (mcdonald 1992,311). in new jersey, the newark society for promoting useful knowledge endorsed it (jensen and others 1976, vol 3,135). in pennsylvania, the philadelphia baptists' association endorsed ill too (jensen and others 1976, vol 8,374-375). the other means by which interest groups communicated their views on the proposed constitution were varied. of course, everywhere there were pamphlets and newspaper articles. in new hampshire, federalist riders were dispatched to the remote corners to promote ratification (mcdonald 1965,220). in new york, antifederalists conducted effigy pa­ rades (gilje 1987, 97). there also was violence. in new york, 18 were injured when rival parades of federalists and antifederalists in albany came to blows (miller 1959,212). in pennsylvania, a federalist crowd literally dragged two as sembly delegates into session at philadelphia in order to obtain a quo­ rum for the purpose of organizing the elections for the ratification con­ vention, a mob threw stones through the windows of a philadelphia board­ ing house that was popular with antifederalist delegates, and there were eight reported fatalities from a battle between the two sides in washing­ ton county (van doren 1948,180,182; beard 1992,231-232; cooke 1978)51; mcdonald 1992,164; jensen and others 1976, vol. 2, 104)10n,713n). even adjournment by a state's ratifying convention did not necessarily end the interest group activity there. in petu1sylvania, petitions with 6,005signatures were presented to thf' f'ltatf' jpeislature requesting that the rati­ fying convention: s approval of the constitution be reversed and the state's delegates to the congress be instructed to resist its adoption. the feder20 1999 commonwealth.max alists, apparently happy enuu!5h with the conventiun's actiun, !5athered only 31 opposing signatures (boyd 1979,123-137; jensen and others 1976, vol. 2,709-725; morris 1987,302). in north carolina, ratification support­ ers who were disappointed with the first convention's rejection of the constitution started a successful statewide petition campaign to convince the legislature to call a secuml cunventiun (mcduilald 1992,312). conclusion the ambiguity of the authority of parliament to adopt and enforce the colonial policies that proved to be so unpopular in america spurred many americans to form and join interest groups in unprecedented nulll­ bers during the first part of the 1763-89 period. the asseltion of a new domestic constitutional authority to replace that which was denied to the british also stimulated interest group activ­ ity. suddenly, there were new possibilities to be achieved through inter­ est group inilialives such as increased religious libelty and land owner­ ship. land speculation, especially, served to affect the new constitutional arrangements by fueling the competition for authority between the states and congress. the western land cessions notwithstanding, the national constitutional authority over commerce remained so weak that many interests associ­ ated with commerce agitated on behalf of an improvement, leading to the drafting and ratification of the constitution itself. even as the constitutional arrangements were being shuffled, there was a corresponding rearrangement of nonpolitical organizational rela­ tionships. in part this resulted from the split between america and brit­ ain, as the various trans-atlantic organizational partnerships necessar­ ily were reconfigured during the war. it also resulted from a significant increase during the period of the tendency to form organizations of all types; in this sense, what occurred was not so much a rearrangement as it was a blossoming of general organizational activity. notes 1. definition of the term "interest group" has been imprecise and incon­ sistent among all branches of the social sciences. it is defined here as a private organization that seeks to influence governmental policy but does not nominate candidates for public office-i.e., is not a political party. see yoho 1998. 2. it was from the platform built by the society to observe the transit that the declaration of independence was first read in public, seven years later (hindle 1956, p. 233). 3. of course, not all petitions are from interest groups. 4. for an interesting discussion of the class patterns of participation in 21 1999 commonwealth.max these organizations, see hoff 1991, p. 51. 5. at the peak of the resistance to the stamp act, the authority of those colonial institutions of government that were acting under authority from london-e.g., the governors and councils-was all but extinguished. 6. in fairness, olson might be read as meaning to say that wilkes created only the first public opinion lobbies in britain, as distinct from america. 7. revolutionary state governments were not formed in some of the colo­ lues until 1777. 8. the other factors included the interest of the "landless" states in using the western lands to raise revenue and for grants to their military officers. 9. it is a inisconception that the tammany sodrty, oreanized in new york city in 1787, was intended to counteract the cincinnati (myers 1983, p. 192; mushkat 1971, pp. 8-11). 10. the text of the report is in conway 1963, pp. 11-15. 11. of course, beard's evidence, which he described as "frankly frag­ mentary/' has been persuasively refuted by, in particular, forrest mcdonald in we the people. mcdonald notes that, contrary to many char­ acterizations of his work, beard" carefully and explicitly denied that he was charging the members of the convention with writing the constitu­ tion for their personal benefit" (mcdonald 1992, p. 6n). 12. the context of the references to the society was whether its members would dominate a popular election for the american presidency. 13. a good account of the early organization of the federalists is in ketcham 1990, pp. 232-239. 14. as to what madison thought of interest groups, see yoho 1995. 15. this meeting is distinguished from seven others held by the free­ holders of other towns and counties for sud, purposes as inslructing their delegates; these were arguably official assemblies of local voters rather than meetings of interest groups. references abf'rnf'thy; 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"the evolution of a better definition of 'interest group' and its synonyms." the social science journal, 35:231-243. zilversmit, arthur. 1967. the first emancipation: the abolition of slavery in the north chicago: university of chicago press. 28 microsoft word volume 14.doc commonwealth: a journal of political science  volume 14, number 1  december 2008 special policy issue on public health  2008 ppsa/lorl, pa house of reps. issn 0890-2410 public health shortage areas in pennsylvania: a barrier to health information alberto j.f. cardelle, phd, mph, east stroudsburg university deidre holland, mph, school of public health, university of medicine and dentistry of new jersey abstract one of the essential functions of public health services is to “inform, educate, and empower people about health issues” (cdc 1994). throughout the united states, the tendency is to have decentralized public health systems that leave the decision-making and a significant part of the financing to local county and municipal governments. this strong reliance on local government financing and control translates into extreme variations in per capita expenditures and access. this paper examines whether or not individuals residing in areas without a centralized public health infrastructure have more difficulty accessing health information to help them make informed decisions about healthy living and lifestyle choices. the paper compares the ease and accuracy of accessing basic public health information in counties and municipalities without a local health department1 (lhd) as compared to counties and municipalities served by a lhd. the study examines the case of pennsylvania, because the state has the lowest ratio of public health workers per person in the country (gebbie 2000), and it has only 10 lhds covering six counties and four municipalities. the study found that in areas without a lhd, residents had to make 20% more calls and received useful information in only 64% of the inquiries. this is compared with locales served by lhds which required 1an agency of local government, a local health department (lhd) develops and administers programs and services that are aimed at maintaining a healthy community. to ensure that these efforts address a community's most important health problems and concerns, the lhd encourages residents to participate in assessing public health needs and in formulating a community health plan. it also works with other community organizations to assure that needed services and programs are available. 8 public health shortage areas in pennsylvania: a barrier to health information fewer calls in order to receive useful information, and in which useful information was attained 100% of the time. this assessment shows that the potential for callers to receive useful public health information in areas without a lhd was impacted by both the higher number of calls that were required and in the diversity of places to which callers were referred. in locales without lhds, the caller was much more likely to be referred to a non-public health entity, and was statistically less likely to get to speak to a public health professional early on in their inquiry. introduction today most states in the united states organize their public health systems around county health departments (mays et al. 2004). of the currently identified 2,865 local public health agencies in the united states, 73% cover a county, or a county and city, and 18% cover smaller geographic areas such as towns and townships (naccho 2005) (beitsch et al. 2006). sixty-two percent of lhds in the united states serve populations of less than 50,000 persons while 40% of lhds serve even less populated rural areas (naccho 2005). on the average, the majority of the funding, 65%, for these lhds, comes from local government sources, the state, or are pass-through funds from the federal government. this decentralized approach to funding and control has meant that no one entity has comprehensive authority and responsibility for creation, maintenance, and oversight of the nation’s public health infrastructure which in turn has allowed the distribution of services in public health to be “fragmented and uneven” (baker et al. 2005). of the 67 counties in the commonwealth of pennsylvania, only six have a county health department and an additional four municipalities have local health bureaus.2 none of the 42 rural counties in pennsylvania has a lhd. counties without lhds have services provided by various different governmental agencies and non-governmental organizations. the state department of environmental protection provides environmental services (water supply testing), the department of 2counties with health departments are montgomery, bucks, chester, erie, philadelphia and allegheny; municipal bureaus include york, allentown, bethlehem and wilkesbarre. alberto j.f. cardelle and deidre holland 9 state health clinic 22% private non-profit 16% other 25% hospital 16%ship partner 9% county government 6% county human service org 6% agriculture provides restaurant inspections, and the state department of health provides the remaining public health services. the counties, which lack lhds, have a state health center with a staff of one to four nurses that provide communicable disease clinical services including sexually transmitted disease and tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment, immunization, and hiv testing, counseling and education (padoh 2007). the health centers operate under the direction of district offices, whose staff provide coordination, consultative and administrative support to the health centers in communicable disease reporting and investigation, epidemiology, informational and referral, chronic disease prevention and intervention programs, and environmental health services (padoh 2007). in addition, the state department of health contracts with local non-profit agencies for the provision of other public health services throughout counties without lhds. figure 1: organizations providing public health services in areas without lhds in 2004, an assessment of the existing public health infrastructure in areas of pennsylvania without a lhd was completed using a survey of agencies and organizations (identified through reputational sampling) carrying out public health functions in 10 pennsylvania counties without a lhd (cardelle 2004). the data shows that in counties without a lhd, public health services are offered by a varied set of institutions (cardelle 2004) (figure 1, above). in counties without lhds, state health centers report offering less than a quarter of the public health services in the area. private sector 10 public health shortage areas in pennsylvania: a barrier to health information entities such as nonprofits and hospitals offer more public health services than the state health centers. as figure 2 (below) shows, when asked to identify what other institutions in the county offered public health services, the majority of the organizations delivering public health services were either not aware of who delivered essential public health services or indicated that the services were not offered in their area (cardelle 2004). fifty percent of the respondents could not identify who inspected recreational facilities and an additional 20% reported that those services were not offered in their area. close to 80% of the respondents were not aware of a provider who provided vector control and 50% could not identify providers in their area that offered hiv testing, hazardous material control or carried out epidemiologic surveillance (figure 2). these are all services that existing lhds deliver or coordinate in areas with lhds. figure 2 the data from this previous assessment (cardelle 2004) shows evidence that even though essential public health services may be being offered in the areas of pennsylvania not covered by a lhd, they are being offered through a decentralized structure that is influencing their visibility. without a lhd to serve a coordinating role, the residents of the locale have greater obstacles to knowing what services are offered 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% hazardous material control vector control epidemiology not aware of service provider no service available alberto j.f. cardelle and deidre holland 11 and where they are being offered. therefore, since one of the essential public health functions is to “inform, educate, and empower people about health issues” (public health functions steering committee 1994), this paper postulates that the decentralized structure present in locales without a lhd would be a barrier to individuals gaining health information that help them make informed decisions about healthy living and lifestyle choices. methodology this assessment compared the ease of accessing basic public health information, and the accuracy of that information in counties and municipalities without lhds3 as compared to counties and municipalities served by a lhd. a sample of 10 counties and 18 municipalities that were similar in population and income to the counties and municipalities with lhd were selected. the non-lhd locales falling within a two standard deviation range of the mean population size and per capita income of the nine lhd locales (philadelphia was not included) were sampled. trained college students (health education majors) adhering to the following protocol collected the data: 1. the beginning of an inquiry was a call to the main municipality or county telephone number.4 2. the students introduced themselves as a college student and asked if there was someone or some office in the municipality or county that could answer one of the following six questions (there was only one question asked per phone call): a. does this municipality/county have high incidence levels of lyme disease? if i found a tick on me, what should i do? 3for the purpose of this study, lhds are defined as health departments established and managed by local governments (county or municipal). 4there are many examples in the literature of using mystery patients or clients to measure performance of health care institutions (van den borne 2006; borfitz 2001). more recently, a similar methodology was used to measure performance of disease reporting systems (dausey et al. 2008). 12 public health shortage areas in pennsylvania: a barrier to health information b. do i need to get a meningitis vaccine at my age? c. where can someone get checked for chlamydia? d. who is at risk for west nile virus? e. why should i get my house tested for radon? how do i get my house tested for radon? f. who is at risk for lead poisoning? what are the signs of lead poisoning? 3. the response from this initial call was intended to result in a referral; however, if the response was a negative (no, do not know, i am not sure, etc.) the student then asked if there was a local health department or a public health director. if the answer was no, then they asked if the person could suggest somewhere else that the caller could call to get the information. 4. if referred to call somewhere else, the student collected information and called the next destination, then repeated the process. 5. the student kept calling referrals until receiving useful information (defined as information that they as health educators would determine allow a prudent layperson to make an informed decision),5 no longer referred, or referred five times. 6. all questions were kept consistent and calls were made within approximately the same time of the day (afternoon). for each locale, written records of the dates, times, responses, and referrals for each call were maintained. 5the responses to what the callers indicated was useful were compared when the protocol and the methodology was tested on three counties (not part of the study) using cohen’s kapa measure, which measures the degree of agreement between raters on categorical assessments (is this information useful?). the kappa score for inter-rate reliability on whether an answer was useful was 0.69, which the literature defines as signifying substantial agreement (landis and kich 1977). alberto j.f. cardelle and deidre holland 13 results a total of 181 calls were made to 15 counties and 22 municipalities. there were 43 calls made to the counties and 138 to municipalities. of 181 calls, 142 were made to locales without lhds and 39 were made to locales with lhds. an average of 30 calls were made per question. in order to receive useful information, an average of 2.43 calls were required. eighty percent of the inquiries required three or fewer telephone calls. sixty-four percent of the inquiries resulted in the caller receiving useful information. table 1 mean number of calls1 percent of the inquiries receiving useful information2 percent of inquiries that required two or fewer calls 2 locale with lhd 2.15 100% 84% locale without lhd 2.71 55% 46% 1difference in means sig <.05. 2difference is sig <.05. the percentage of calls not receiving useful information means that the either the caller was referred five times without getting useful information or they failed to get the last caller to refer them to another number. inquiries made to locales served by lhds required fewer calls in order to receive useful information, and useful information was attained 100% of the time (table 1, above). the difference between the numbers of calls between the two groups is statistically significant at the .05 level (sig < .05)6. locales with lhds were significantly more likely to provide useful information in fewer calls across all themes (table 2, following page). locales without lhds required almost three calls for the questions on lyme disease and std testing and over 2.5 calls on the question about immunizations, radon and lead poisoning. in addition, non-lhds had a lower percentage of inquiries resulting in useful information. while 80% of the inquiries made about stds resulted in 6statistically significant at .05 (p < .05) means that the probability of that relationship occurring by chance is less than 5%. 14 public health shortage areas in pennsylvania: a barrier to health information useful information, only 26% of the inquiries on radon resulted in useful information and only 32% of the inquiries on west nile virus resulted in useful information. table 2 mean number of calls percent of the inquiries receiving useful information lhd non-lhd lhd non-lhd lyme disease 2.14 2.96 100% 60% immunization 2.14 2.57 100% 50% std testing 2.14 2.96 100% 80% west nile virus 2.17 2.38 100% 32% radon 2.17 2.71 100% 26.3% lead poisoning 2.17 2.64 100% 75% the locales with no lhd required more phone calls to complete the inquiry. one hundred percent of the inquiries made to locales with a lhd were completed with three phone calls. only 85% of the inquiries made to locales without a lhd were completed with three or fewer calls (figure 3, page 15) (sig < .05). analysis of the relationship between the number of calls and receipt of useful information showed a statistically significant relationship between the two variables. inquiries that resulted in useful information had a mean number of calls of 2.45, while inquiries not resulting in useful information had a mean number of calls of 2.87. figure 4 (next page) demonstrates that 92% of the inquiries which resulted in useful information were responded with fewer than three calls, while the inquiries not resulting in useful information required more calls. alberto j.f. cardelle and deidre holland 15 figure 3 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 lhd locales non-lhd locales p er ce n t of i n q u ir ie s c om p le te d 2 calls 3 calls 4 calls 5 calls figure 4 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 useful information received useful information not received p er ec en t of t he i nq ui ri es c om p le te d 2 calls 3 calls 4 calls 5 calls 16 public health shortage areas in pennsylvania: a barrier to health information a third major issue identified in the difference between locales is the dispersed types of referrals made during the inquiry. while locales with lhds referred the caller to the lhd sometime during the first three calls 100% of the time, inquiries made to locales without lhds were referred to other government agencies 55% of the time, after the initial call. in these locales, other government agencies were the most common referral after the first and second referrals; only during the third referral are nonlhd locales likely to refer the inquiries to the pennsylvania department of health (either state level or county level). these delayed referrals could exhaust callers and keep them from continuing their inquiries. the callers in this study had a protocol that required them to continue to call, but members of the public requesting information would likely not be so persistent (see table 3, below). table 3 referral 1 referral 2 referral 3 lhd nonlhd lhd nonlhd lhd nonlhd pa doh (state or county) 0% 9.9% 0% 24.8% 0% 40% private provider1 0% 11.3% 0% 15.8% 0% 14.5% state health center 0% 8.5% 0% 22.8% 0% 18.5% other government health agency2 0% 2.1% 0% 2% 0% 1.8% other government office3 11% 55.6% 0% 28.7% 0% 18.2% penn state extension office 0% 2.8% 0% 1% 0% 3.6% lhd 89% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% other4 9.8% 4.9% 3.4% 1includes hospitals, private physicians, non-profit agencies 2local health board, department of environmental protection, department of agriculture, vector control 3housing authority, assistance office, hotline, commissioner’s office 4library, courthouse, college professor alberto j.f. cardelle and deidre holland 17 overall, as compared to callers in locales with lhds, callers within locales without lhds tend to run a 93% greater risk of being referred to non-public health entity during the first referral and 60% greater risk during the second referral. in addition, callers in locales without a lhd have a 50% greater risk of not receiving useful information (table 4). as table 5 demonstrates, the individuals responding to the calls are trying to provide some type of useful information, but lack the adequate information. the callers did not report an unwillingness to provide service, but instead a genuine unawareness of the information. the referrals are also problematic because some, such as having the caller search the web or go to the library, may result in erroneous information. table 4 relative risk confidence intervals inquiries to non-lhd locales not resulting in useful information 1.51 1.32 1.70 referrals made to non-public health entities in non-lhd locales after first call. 1.93 1.56 2.37 referrals made to non-public health entities in non-lhd locales after second call. 1.60 1.37 1.85 table 5 sample responses q lhd locale non-lhd locale 1 “try the health department, hold and i will transfer you.” “there is no one in the city that can help you with that. … go into a search engine like yahoo and type in the words lyme disease…” 2 “i’ll transfer you to the health bureau.” “i have no idea; maybe you could try your personal physician.” 3 “we have a walk-in clinic.” “since there is not a lhd, we (the city) have contracted with family health counseling.” 18 public health shortage areas in pennsylvania: a barrier to health information 4 “i will transfer you to a nurse at the health department.” “i would try the library for that information. i do not know if we have a local health department that is a good question. sorry i can’t help you.” 5 “you need to do what everybody else does and go to home depot and buy a test kit.” “i will transfer you to our building inspector.” 6 “call our lead program.” “we don’t have a local health department but we have a board of health.” transferred to a physician’s office … the receptionist told me to “call the state health department.” discussion this assessment shows that the potential for callers to receive useful public health information in lhds and non-lhds was impacted by both the higher number of calls that were required and in the diversity of places to which callers were referred. in locales without lhds, the caller was much more likely to be referred to a non-public health entity, and was statistically less likely to get to speak to a public health professional early on in their inquiry. this delay or diversion increases the chance of getting information that is not useful. it is important to highlight that over 85% of the calls that are eventually referred to public health entities such as state department of health centers, county vector control programs, and county west nile control programs resulted in useful information. therefore, it was not that the personnel in the network of organizations that provide public health services to non-lhd locales could not provide useful and timely information, it was that it took the caller a longer time to get to that organization. in both types of locales, once the caller was forwarded to a public health entity, the chances of receiving useful information improved dramatically. the difference is that in locales without lhds, the caller had to demonstrate a greater determination in following-up on the referrals. in general, there is an overall uncoordinated response in locales without a lhd. in locales with lhds, over 90% of the initial calls were sent to the lhd by government personnel with the job of answering phone calls (administrative assistant or receptionist). this shows that in alberto j.f. cardelle and deidre holland 19 lhd locales, frontline government workers were aware of the portal of entry into the public health infrastructure. in non-lhd locales, there was not a common entity that government employees could consistently identify as being in charge of public health. there was no pattern in nonlhd locales as to where the call was referred; it was sometimes a hospital, sometimes another government agency, and sometimes the department of health. even in situations in which the caller was told there was a local public health entity in non-lhd locales, the caller had a greater likelihood of getting messages such as: “there is a health officer but she is part time, you would have more luck calling the state health department.” “…the health officer is working part time now, but leave a message and i will get back to you as soon as possible.” “the city health line was closed about two years ago, so you need to call the state health department or go on the web to www.state.pa.us.” the danger in these situations, as well as in situations in which it took callers four to five calls to get an answer, is that callers would give up. it is fair to ask how many calls a college student, who is mildly concerned about being tested for an std, would make before giving up. this study did have inherent limitations. the sample of the counties and municipalities called are not representative of the rural counties in pennsylvania. the sampled counties have higher per capita incomes and are more densely populated. in addition, the determination of what constitutes “useful” information is a subjective assessment. in addition, since the study was not blind, unconscious subjective bias may have been introduced. although the calls were made at different times of the day, there is a possibility that the study did not capture a representative sample of persons who answer the calls in county offices. conclusion the results of these different studies indicate that areas without lhds are lacking the infrastructure with which to provide all the 20 public health shortage areas in pennsylvania: a barrier to health information essential public health functions. in areas across the country that lack a lhd, a proposed solution to this problem has been the creation of a network of coordinated entities that could provide the 10 essential functions of public health. however, a lesson of this assessment is that these networks are not recognized as being an entity that is perceived as having the charge of providing public health services. this study highlights that while private-public partnership may adequately serve the public health needs of a population, there is a clear need for public sector stewardship of the partnership. without at least one central entity that has the established reputation of being the steward of the public’s health, residents in need of information and services will have difficulty in solving their public health related problems. the disjointed services offered or the paucity of useful information provided may not be a reflection of the competence of the personnel in these network-based infrastructures, but rather a reflection of the lack of a centralized portal of entry into the infrastructure. while it may be possible to provide public health services through a decentralized network, it is difficult for this network’s structure to establish a clear portal of entry for residents. unlike a fire, a traffic accident, or even a water-main break where what is required of local services is clearly evident; responses to a strange rash, the identification of a vector, or environmental hazards are less clear and linear. as a result, residents of locales without lhds are more likely to be without the essential service of public health needed to make informed decisions regarding their health. these differences create a public health disparity, a disparity that given the increasing threats to the public’s health, sars, west nile virus and bioterrorism, stands to negatively affect the long-term health status of the population. since the public entrusts the public sector with its protection, it follows that the portal of entry into a public health infrastructure be the responsibility of the public sector. references allukian, m. jr. 1993. “forging the future: the public health imperative.” american journal of public health 83: 655-60. american public health association. august 2004. “shift in preparedness funds undermines readiness efforts.” the nation’s health. alberto j.f. cardelle and deidre holland 21 baker, e.l., and j.p. koplan. 2002. “strengthening the nation’s public health infrastructure: historic challenge, unprecedented opportunity.” health affairs (millwood) 6:15-27. baxter, r.j., c.r. steinberg, and j.r. shapiro. 2001. “is the u.s. public health system ready for bioterrorism? an assessment of the u.s. public health infrastructure and its capacity for infectious disease surveillance.” yale journal of health policy law ethics 1: 1-21. beitsch, leslie, robert g. brooks, nir menachemi, and patrick m. libbey. 2006. public health at center stage: new roles, old props. health affairs 25: 911-922. borfitz, deborah. “is a mystery shopper lurking in your waiting room?” medical economics. may 1, 2001. cardelle, alberto. 2004. “assessment of rural public health infrastructure.” unpublished manuscript. center for disease control and prevention. 1994. public health performance measure (accessed march 1, 2008). center for rural pennsylvania. 2004. profile of pennsylvania’s rural and urban counties. http://www.ruralpa.org/county_profiles.html (accessed march 10, 2007). dausey, david j., anita chandra, agnes g. schaefer, ben bahney, amelia haviland, sarah zakowski, and nicole luriee. 2008. “measuring the performance of telephone-based disease surveillance systems in local health departments.” am j public health 9:1-6. dreicker, m. 2004. plans for a northampton county health department. testimony presented to northampton county council, april 12, 2004. frist, william. 2002. public health and national security: the critical role of increased federal support. health affairs (millwood) 6:117-30. gebbie, kristine. 2000. the public health workforce; enumeration 2000. washington dc.: health research and services administration. gebbie, kristine. 1993. rebuilding a public health infrastructure. journal of law and medical ethics 3-4:368-71. gebbie, kristine. 1999. the public health workforce: key to public health infrastructure. american journal of public health 5:660-1. landis eric, and mariane koch. 1977. measurement of measurer agreement for categorical data. biometrics 33:159-174. van den borne, francine. 2007. using mystery clients to assess condom negotiation in malawi: some ethical concerns. studies in family planning 4:322-330. commonwealth: a journal of political science  volume 15, number 1  may 2009 policy issue on emergency management  2009 ppsa/lorl, pa house of reps. issn 0890-2410 joint readiness center b pittsburgh: a model of military-civilian readiness and response george a. huber, esq., david r. campbell, rn, ms, keith g. dorman, leigh a. mcintosh, cecd joint readiness center b pittsburgh task force established by a decision of the base realignment and closure commission in 2005, the joint readiness center located at the air reserve station at pittsburgh was identified by the department of defense as a center of excellence in integrating civilian medical and business resources with military assets to provide unique, flexible and effective emergency preparedness, response and recovery to the nation. supported by a community organization, known as the joint readiness center task force (jrc task force), the jrc concept is a national model for homeland security and homeland defense and is consistent with the dictates of the u.s. national response plan and u.s. national incident management system. the objective of the jrc is to improve the nation=s response to natural or human-caused disasters by combining the strengths of the active duty, reserve, and guard components of the military, including the five armed services; federal, state, and local government agencies such as the federal emergency management administration, national disaster medical system, disaster medical assistance team, pennsylvania emergency management agency; civilian practitioners skilled in disaster management; and the pittsburgh region=s extensive healthcare resources. this article examines the history of the jrc in light of the actions of the base realignment and closure commission, public perceptions of civil-military preparedness, the benefits of the jrc to pittsburgh and the nation, and its evolving role. 48 joint readiness center – pittsburgh: a model of militarycivilian readiness and response history the military affairs council of western pennsylvania (mac) was created in 2000 to recognize the importance that the 171st air refueling wing of the pennsylvania air national guard (ang), the 911th tactical airlift wing stationed at the pittsburgh air reserve station (ars), and the 99th regional readiness command (rrc), and all local military installations contribute to the overall well-being of the 10-county pittsburgh region=s economic and quality of life climate. mac’s mission is to enhance the importance of the military presence in the pittsburgh region and strive to facilitate, communicate, and cooperate with military units, surrounding communities, businesses, colleges and universities, and governments. the goal is to connect the community and military in symbiotic partnership through:  increasing public knowledge of the contributions made by the pittsburgh region’s military units, which have global, national, and regional impacts.  bringing attention to the community-wide support and pride for the pittsburgh region’s local military units, through campaigning, lobbying, advertising, and special events. in late 2004, the mac undertook a proactive initiative in developing a regional strategy to protect and enhance the pittsburgh region=s defense community in anticipation of the may 2005 report by the u.s. department of defense (dod) recommending the closure or realignment of military bases across the globe. it was critical for the community to take this stance in support of the pittsburgh region=s military bases, personnel, and related economic impact on the surrounding communities. to assist in crafting the mac plan, grant funding was secured from the pennsylvania department of community and economic development to pay for a study to: $ develop the concept of a regional joint readiness center, integrating civil-military operations, homeland security, and community-based medical support; $ explore consolidation of existing military and defense entities within the pittsburgh region to a location at the pittsburgh international airport; george a. huber, david r. campbell, keith g. dorman, and leigh a. mcintosh 49 $ identify properties for further development in the immediate and surrounding areas of the airport; and $ create a public affairs strategy and implementation plan. recognizing the role pittsburgh could play as the keystone in the country=s homeland security and homeland defense future, the report outlined a plan to build on the region=s military assets, creating a vital daily operational resource for coordinated, multi-agency multijurisdictional disaster response. the study resulted in a plan for the creation of the country’s first civilian-military joint readiness center, building on the pittsburgh region’s military presence as the core. base realignment and closure commission action after the mac study was completed in may 2004, the community braced itself as dod released its plan for realignment and closure of military installations. dod=s report recommended the closure of 33 major bases across the country, and further recommended that an additional 29 be downsized (www.defenselink.mil/brac/pdf/appendix_ c_final updated.pdf). in pennsylvania, 13 installations were targeted for closure or realignment, including air force reserve's 911th airlift wing, near pittsburgh international airport in moon township, allegheny county. the 911th’s eight c-130s would be moved to pope air force base near fort bragg, north carolina, and combined with eight others to build a new squadron (u.s. department of defense, base closure and realignment report, may 2005, department of air force, p. 35). army reserve's 99th regional readiness command, along business route 60 in moon township, allegheny county, would be one of four reserve headquarters consolidated at fort dix, new jersey. the army's charles e. kelly support center, oakdale and neville island, as well as a site in collier, allegheny county, would be closed (u.s. department of defense, base closure and realignment report, may 2005, department of army, p. 120). with the dod plan outlined, the mac led the charge to rally community support to save the local installations. pennsylvania governor edward g. rendell approached mac to engage the organization in fighting to preserve the local military presence, and named co-chairs for the effort: allegheny county chief executive dan http://www.defenselink.mil/brac/pdf/appendix_ 50 joint readiness center – pittsburgh: a model of militarycivilian readiness and response onorato and michael langley, ceo of the allegheny conference on community development. mac created a community organization for the effort named the pittsburgh-base realignment and closure committee (pit-brac). through pit-brac and the participation of hundreds of community leaders and volunteers from across the pittsburgh region, an effort came together to pour through the data used by dod to make its may 2005 base closure and realignment recommendations. pit-brac staff and volunteers identified errors and misinformation in the dod analysis, rallied public support for the pittsburgh region=s military during meetings and events; provided formal testimony before the presidentially-appointed base realignment and closure commission (brac commission); and communicated regularly with brac commission staff reviewing the dod recommendations. in addition to advocacy aimed at keeping the existing military installations open, the pit-brac task force recommended creation of a joint readiness center and linking the joint readiness center concept to the operations at the pittsburgh air reserve station. on september 9, 2005, the brac commission completed months of hearings and deliberations on the dod recommendations and submitted its final report to president bush. the brac commission recommendations were accepted by the white house and ultimately upheld by congress in november of 2005. in regard to the pittsburgh region, the approved plan included: $ realignment of the 99th regional readiness command, coraopolis, to fort dix, new jersey; $ closure of charles e. kelly support facility, oakdale and neville island, allegheny county, pennsylvania, and relocate units to pitt u.s. army reserve center, coraopolis, allegheny county, pennsylvania (2005 defense base closure and realignment commission report, volume one, department of the army, p. 70); $ realignment of the pittsburgh international airport (iap) air reserve station (ars), pennsylvania. “establish a contiguous enclave at the pittsburgh ars, pennsylvania, sufficient to support continued operations of the reserve station units, including flight operations, and compatible with combined use of the civilian airport by the air reserve, air national guard, and civilian users. within that enclave, establish a regional joint readiness center (rjrc) at george a. huber, david r. campbell, keith g. dorman, and leigh a. mcintosh 51 the pittsburgh international air station with the mission of providing civil-military operations, homeland security, and community-based medical support to the department of defense and the department of homeland security national incident management plan and the national incident response plan. the enclave and rjrc will be staffed at the current manning level of the ars. the paa and personnel allocation of air national guard units at pittsburgh are unaffected by this recommendation.” (2005 defense base closure & realignment commission report, volume one, department of the air force, pp. 150, 151.) with the final report as law, dod has up to five years, or until 2011, to implement the commission recommendations. public perception of civil-military preparedness the september 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, along with hurricane katrina, and recent threats of pandemic disease outbreaks, have raised awareness and concern among the general public related to federal, state, and local government=s ability to respond to terrorist events, natural disasters, and health emergencies. as a result, all levels of government are undertaking efforts to ensure that plans exist and are integrated for responding to natural or man-made disasters. the white house, in the report the federal response to hurricane katrina: lessons learned, identified four critical flaws in national preparedness: the absence of a process for unified management of the national response; lack of command and control structures within the federal government; lack of knowledge of preparedness plans; and an absence of regional planning and coordination. (the white house, the federal response to hurricane katrina: lessons learned, p. 90.) these findings point out the need for an organization such as the joint readiness center and clearly support the role it can play. the jrc maximizes the skills and strengths of the pittsburgh region to respond to almost any incident. focusing on the strengths of the public and private sectors in the pittsburgh region, and integrating and enhancing that capacity from the bottom up, would create a resource able to provide a more timely response to incidents, along with the needed command, control, communication, and coordination capability. 52 joint readiness center – pittsburgh: a model of militarycivilian readiness and response to assist the federal partners in the development of an implementation plan, the pit-brac task force evolved into another community effort led by allegheny county executive onorato and allegheny conference ceo langley as co-chairs, with the involvement of private sector partners, community leaders, and volunteers. known as the joint readiness center task force (jrc task force), the group has been working since november of 2005 to build this first-of-its-kind national model for homeland security and homeland defense, in support of the national response plan (nrp) (http://www.fema.gov/emergency/ nims/index.shtm) and national incident management system (nims) (http://www.dhs.gov/xprepresp/committees/editorial_0566.shtm). working in collaboration with the private, academic, and institutional sectors, along with federal, state, and local government agencies, the jrc task force developed a vision of the brac-mandated jrc. the mission of the jrc is to support the departments of defense, homeland security, and health and human services, other federal, state, and local organizations in transcending jurisdictional borders to build on existing capabilities and provide for more effective, synchronized, and collaborative regional readiness, with a special focus on medical emergency management and corporate response. the objectives of the jrc are to optimize military, civilian, public, and private collaboration; coordinate emergency response; facilitate rapid mobilization; integrate community based education and training; model operations as a “center of excellence” focused on the delivery of world-class medical care and business continuity support; and create a national paradigm. qualitative improvements through jrc the jrc aims to improve the nation=s disaster readiness, response, and recovery by combining the strengths of the military, including the active duty, reserve, and guard components of the five armed services; local, county, state, and other federal government agencies such as the federal emergency management administration (fema), ndms (national disaster medical system), dmat (disaster medical assistance team), pennsylvania emergency management agency (pema) and civilian counterparts skilled in disaster management; and the pittsburgh region=s extensive healthcare resources. this group of experienced and talented individuals will serve as a center of excellence http://www.fema.gov/emergency/ george a. huber, david r. campbell, keith g. dorman, and leigh a. mcintosh 53 that will jointly train, prepare, and be available to coordinate appropriate resources for rapid deployment, and respond and provide support to hazards of all kinds, including both man-made and natural. a key component of the jrc program is to bring these diverse groups of talented and experienced people together on a day-to-day basis, even if only virtually, to ingrain in them this collaborative and cooperative approach so that it is second nature. this day-to-day interaction will prepare the various groups to cooperate at a level not experienced during prior disasters. although the majority of these response groups may not be physically located day-to-day in the jrc, the center will be able to serve as a command, control, and coordination point for all-hazard response assets within the pittsburgh region, state, nation, and beyond. in order to prepare individuals for these roles, new training programs encompassing a variety of clinical and educational disciplines will be established. the development of training programs will utilize the unique partnership among military leaders, pittsburgh region health care providers, and educators to craft programs ensuring participants possess the necessary skills sets and competencies to protect our citizens. also key to this transformation will be the development and execution of realistic drills and exercises, which will again allow the personnel of the jrc to develop the working relationships that will allow them to succeed. this unique level of interoperability among military, government, and civilian agencies is currently non-existent at the national level, and will become a model program for the country. in support of developing this national model, the jrc will provide consultation and training to groups across the united states, in effect multiplying the jrc=s response capabilities. defining the jrc the jrc will serve two main operational roles in response to natural or man-made disaster situations. the first is to coordinate and transport deployable equipment and trained personnel to the on-scene incident commander at the site of a major disaster. tailored to each situation, the type and amount of this response will bring much needed resources to 54 joint readiness center – pittsburgh: a model of militarycivilian readiness and response help care for patients at the disaster site. the second jrc operational role is to act as a receiving point to triage and distribute disaster victims to appropriate health care facilities. on a small scale, this will be completed independent of the ndms system. on a larger scale, the jrc would integrate with ndms plans and would be a lead asset in a large-scale evacuation. an example of a mission performed by the jrc in its operational role would be in response to a natural disaster or terrorism event located outside the pittsburgh region. this would involve transporting air assets, medical crews, aircraft maintenance supplies and equipment, and medical supplies to the disaster area. the nature and size of the event will dictate the number of resources sent to the area. the following is one possible deployment scenario: $ civilian aeromedical helicopters are dispatched to the disaster area. each will be sent with two complete crews, and thus be capable of 24 hour operation. although it is possible that these helicopters could be broken down and placed on military aircraft, the difficulty in accomplishing this in a short period negates any time savings due to the shorter flight times and higher speed of military transport aircraft. $ additional aeromedical evacuation (ae) crews and physicians and nurses, along with enough food, water, and medical supplies to make the “unit” self sufficient, are dispatched via military airlift. if possible, living quarters will be transported to the area. $ additional 911th c130 aircraft and 171st kc135 aircraft are dispatched to the disaster scene as needed. these will be staffed with ae crews from the 911th (or other af reserve units), supplemented with medical attendants from area helicopter crews, and physicians and nurses from local medical centers. $ at the disaster area, helicopter crews will perform evacuation of ill and injured persons. due to design limitations, there will be no rescues conducted requiring hoists. these patients will be transported to a mobile aeromedical staging facility. $ mobile aeromedical staging facilities (masfs) can be erected and jointly staffed by air force medical personnel, and civilian helicopter crews, physicians, and nurses. these staging units are george a. huber, david r. campbell, keith g. dorman, and leigh a. mcintosh 55 capable of triaging, stabilizing, and staging patients for medical evacuation to tertiary care centers. $ military airlift will transport the patients back to the pittsburgh area for triage to the appropriate medical facility. transport to these hospitals can be accomplished by helicopter or ground ambulance. $ depending on the size and nature of the event, military airlift could be used to transport and support specialized medical and scientific experts from area hospitals. for example, there may be the need for specialists in infectious disease, immunology, and microbiology for the management of health conditions related to a bioterrorism event. or, medical and other experts would be needed for mitigating and treating the effects of a radiation release event. the jrc will also serve a major role in disaster preparedness and planning, and in developing the nation=s joint military and civilian response capability. one major component of this role will be providing comprehensive, combined training and joint exercises for military, medical, and civilian personnel, including first responders and first receivers from across the pittsburgh region. this total training system will make the pittsburgh region more prepared for a national response by creating a joint pool of skilled personnel. it will also expose disaster response personnel from around the country to the jrc=s model disaster response capabilities. jrc: national medical and business resource pittsburgh is unique in its ability to serve as a center of excellence for medically related disaster response. the pittsburgh region is home to some of the nation=s most advanced tertiary and academic medical centers and offers expertise in long-term acute care, as well as healthcare. in allegheny county alone, there are 43 hospitals with 9,031 staffed beds. these hospitals host four level i trauma centers (three adult and one pediatric), two burn centers, two comprehensive transplant programs, and multiple open-heart surgery programs. through the pittsburgh region=s many teaching and research programs, and its world class academic medical center, these healthcare systems have vast experience in assisting areas around the world in improving their medical care systems. this experience is a major asset in the development of the 56 joint readiness center – pittsburgh: a model of militarycivilian readiness and response jrc model, and in assisting other communities in developing and upgrading the response capabilities of medical resources. the ndms is a federal initiative that is governed by the emergency management strategic health group (emshg) and is intended to provide a nationwide, coordinated response of emergency medical services in the case of a disaster of great magnitude. the system is a cooperative effort of the department of health and human services, (hhs), dod, fema, department of veterans affairs, state and local governments, and the private sector. the ndms does not replace existing emergency medical activities, but rather is intended to complement state and local efforts in the case of a disaster that is so widespread, that “mutual aid” from different areas of the nation is required. ndms responds to “national” disasters both here in the united states and internationally, and is totally supported by the military for transportation, medical evacuation, and security. the pittsburgh region is designated as one of just 70 federally coordinated ndms sites in the nation. geographically, the region includes southwest pennsylvania and northern west virginia. most of the hospitals, ems groups, and other local and regional agencies are dedicated participants in the ndms program. once alerted of a national disaster scenario, the functions of the pittsburgh ndms area will be to: deploy its disaster medical assistance teams (dmat) if necessary; receive casualties via air evacuation flights and transport to appropriate medical facilities; provide definitive hospital treatment to casualties; and finally, maintain communications within the area and with the global patient movement requirements center (gpmrc) regarding the status of patients and the availability of hospital beds. while the pittsburgh area ndms has been developed specifically to lend support during a national crisis, its basic elements are intended to be useful for implementation during local or statewide emergencies as well. the pittsburgh area ndms can also be utilized to evacuate patients from the tri-state area to other ndms reception sites in cases of manmade or natural disasters affecting local communities. regardless of the kind of disaster, or the manner used to activate the system, the ndms is flexible enough to provide for effective medical response under most disaster scenarios. the complete ndms program has been exercised annually in the pittsburgh region since its inception. george a. huber, david r. campbell, keith g. dorman, and leigh a. mcintosh 57 the jrc has a unique link with local, regional, and national companies based in the pittsburgh region. through this link, not only are these resources available to respond to a national disaster situation, but also the combined resources of these companies serve as a national model for business preparedness. these businesses are represented by the pittsburgh regional business coalition for homeland security (prbchs). the coalition is dedicated to assisting businesses as they prepare for, respond to, and recover from natural disasters, technological disasters, or terror attacks. the prbchs also serves as a vital link between the public and private sectors in the pittsburgh region and their pursuit of common goals and mutual assistance. in addition to developing resources for disaster recovery for its members, one of the first tasks the group undertook was the development of a regional asset list for the pennsylvania region 13 command center, so that available business assets could be easily located and used in a disaster situation. pittsburgh location adds value to the jrc and benefits to the nation through preliminary discussions with the federal government partners, there is current thought of replicating the jrc model nationally, creating a network of jrc-like capability centers to address the 15 threat scenarios outlined by the ndms. the pittsburgh region and commonwealth of pennsylvania have a unique opportunity to be the first of the network of jrcs to be implemented. as recognized by the federal partners, pittsburgh is a valued location as a home to the first jrc. $ the air reserve station located at pittsburgh international airport provides a high level of physical security as a location for a jrc. $ the airport is accessible by a superior highway system, and a precision instrumented, multi-runway airport, with the longest being 11,500 feet. a reliever field is only 16.1 nautical miles away, with a maximum runway length of 6,501 feet. $ the climate in the pittsburgh region is not subject to extremes, permitting year-round operations, and 24/7/365 availability for operations. $ the site is located within 500 miles, or a two-hour flight, of 55% of the population of the united states, including the major metropolitan 58 joint readiness center – pittsburgh: a model of militarycivilian readiness and response areas of washington, dc; new york city; chicago; and philadelphia. $ the emergency response capabilities and resources of pennsylvania region 13 have matured to the point that work on the jrc can begin immediately and progress rapidly. $ pittsburgh is home to some of the nation=s most advanced tertiary and academic medical centers and offers expertise in long-term acute care as well as healthcare. $ the pittsburgh regional business coalition for homeland security can serve as a catalyst to build network of private sectors to aid at times of emergency. these attributes position the pittsburgh region and commonwealth of pennsylvania as the perfect location for the jrc and can assist in making it the model of excellence in providing readiness, response, and recovery service to meet the homeland security needs that currently exist in our country. this designation would bring national recognition, create new job opportunities for residents, and lead to new capital investment. the jrc is positioned to provide a wide range of benefits to the nation and to communities where it is located. by design, it provides support for incident preparedness, response, and recovery activities. as mentioned above, its location facilitates rapid movement of resources to an incident site, or evacuation of victims from that site. as a collaborative model, it allows for seamless integration of private sector medical and business resources to deploy as an incident response tool. and most critically, it serves as a hub for the interaction of civilian and military assets as they prepare for, respond to, and recover from, natural or man-made disasters. as mentioned in previous sections, the jrc conducts programs that support emergency preparedness, response, and recovery activities. as a center devoted to civilian-military integrated effort, the jrc offers a unique training environment capable of replicating actual conditions where resources from a variety of sources combine to address a crisis. cooperative preparedness training builds relationships and refines protocols that translate into more timely and effective response to natural or man made incidents. additionally, by identifying civilian medical and business expertise and resources – and training in an integrated fashion george a. huber, david r. campbell, keith g. dorman, and leigh a. mcintosh 59 to work seamlessly with government and military assets – more rapid, effective, and efficient recovery efforts can be provided to affected areas. the jrc’s pittsburgh location, noted above, places it proximate to large eastern, mid-atlantic and midwest population centers. this location facilitates rapid movement of resources to an incident site. in addition, this location allows for the rapid evacuation of victims from incident sites and ready access to the more than seventy hospitals in the region. as a center of excellence for the integration of medical and business civilian resources with public assets to prepare for, respond to, and recover from emergencies, the jrc serves as an incubator for protocols and processes that other joint centers can utilize in developing approaches bringing together private and public sector assets. successful development of the jrc “practice” will allow for a better prepared and more responsive resource available in emergencies, and provide for faster recovery of communities impacted by natural or man-made disasters. crafting a seamless, integrated, civilian and military joint resource will provide for a better-prepared and more responsive asset. in the end, the success of the jrc will be measured by the many lives saved, property protected, and communities returned to normal. these results will be achieved through the development and full implementation of the jrc’s innovative national model for preparedness, recovery, and response. next steps realizing the full potential of the jrc will take a strong collaborative between community and dod/dhs leadership; funding for continued program development and operations; and ultimately the allocation of sufficient resources to build, man, and operate the jrc. the beginnings of an effective collaborative between the community and dod/dhs leadership are already in place. briefings and leadership interaction has occurred in pittsburgh, in washington, dc, and in the many locations where key homeland security and homeland defense commands are headquartered. these sessions must not only continue, but must continually broaden and deepen to allow full discussion of issues associated with jrc establishment. 60 joint readiness center – pittsburgh: a model of militarycivilian readiness and response funding to provide support for jrc concept development, research, and outreach efforts has been supplied by local business and from the commonwealth of pennsylvania. further funding is necessary to support the next phase of jrc program design and development. while local resources can provide a significant amount of resource for the jrc, these local contributions can only supplement, not supplant, federal funding necessary to finish development of the jrc concept. finally, federal resources are necessary to actually establish the jrc and implement its programs. while community resources and state support can add up to significant assistance, only a commitment of federal manpower and funding resources will allow a well-crafted, fully functional, and effective and efficient jrc to become reality. ó nietzsche's rejection of wagner: aesthetics, ethics, and politics william f. byrne the catholic university of america nietzsche's late anti-vvagner tracts receive little attention from political sci­ cilfists, yet they offer important insights into nietzsche's philosophical thought ami into the relationship of art to political behavior. for nietzsche, both the lilli/antic and the 'christian' elements vf wuxner'tj vpnutj embudy 1lie 'slave morality' that is characteristic of modernity. 'decadent' art like wagner's tends 10 deaden the listener to the moral demands of real life, and instead promotes a longing for a transfigured exterior world. this can be manifested politically in the form of ideological movements that aim to destroy the old order and erect a 11t'w utopian order in its place. in these writings nietzsche positions himself auainst expansive romanticism and nihilism, and emerges as a surprisingly strong dassieist, albeit an unconventional one. relationships between great minds are always of interest to scholars, and that between friedrich nietzsche and richard wagner is of more interest than most because it wat; t;o intent;e, 1:iu well documenled, and marked by such a dramatic reversal. while as a young man nietzsche practically worshipped wagner, he later came to despise the man and his romantic operas. nietzsche not only included derogatory remarks about wagner in several of his later works, but also took the extraordi­ nary step of writing two polemical pieces directed specifically against wagner, his operas, and his influence: the case of wagner and nietzsche (ontra wagner. while a considerable body of literature exists on the nietzsche-wagner relationship, relatively little serious philosophical at­ tention has been devoted to these two late works. however, an analysis of them reveals that despite their polemical style, their lack of structure, ,md their narrow ful:u1:i oil wagller, lhese shorl books are rich in philo­ sophical content. indeed, because they are directed at the specific 1/ con­ crete" problem of wagner in considerable detail, they provide a unique window into nietzsche's thought that complements his broader philo­ sophical writings. -political theorists in particular (and, in fact, political scientists gener­ ally) can benefit from the study of these two neglected works because in them ni~tzsche offers important insights into the relationship of aesthet­ ics to ethics and politics. nietzsche believed that wagner's work pm­ bodied a particular form of morality characteristic of modernity, and that the. moral framework fostered in part by his influence tended to shape society and politics in particular wayt;. specifically, nielzsche seems to 1 have seen in wagner's work, and in modern romantic and sentimental art generally, the seeds of the kinds of ideological mass movements that would arise in the early twentieth century. this is not because he be­ lieved that these works expressed specific political or ideological views, but because they somehow embodied a "decadent" morality that would en,courage individuals to embrace particular types of politics. nietzsche's umlen;ldlluillg uf how ad can serve as a kind of driver for morality and, consequently, for political behavior, has enduring value and demands the attention of political theorists today. to develop a better understanding of nietzsche's views on art, mo­ rality, and politics, this article will explore some of the philosophical con­ tent of the case of wagner and nietzsche contra wagner. (although the latter was billed as a compilation of remarks from various earlier works, it actually incorporates a considerable amount of new or modified mate­ rial.) preceding this examination will be a brief treatment of nietzsche's early pro-wagner views as expressed in the birth of tragedy and richard wagner in bayreuth. the purpose of reviewing these works is not to offer anything like a full treatment uf nidz,::h . .:he'b early aesthetic views bullo . provide a context for the rejection of wagner that was to follow. nietzsche's treatments of wagner are as unsystematic as his more ex­ pressly philosophical works, but it will become evident that despite some noteworthy tensions nietzsche remains reasonably consistent philosophi­ cally throughout his praise and condemnation of wagner, although some maturation, refinement, and clarification of his thought are apparent. the bulk of nietzsche's anti-wagner remarks may be grouped into two broad areas: a narrower group of criticisms that directly reflect nietzsche's rejection of christianity and that focus on i christian' elements in wagner's operas, and a broader grouping of criticisms that focus on the romantic uimen:;iurlli uf wagner's work il will be demonstrated that nietzsdle not only saw a very close relationship between romantic art and the llslave morality" he associated with christianity, but that he was keenly aware of the political dangers which could arise trom this type of i romantic' morality. the nietzsche that emerges here is a i classicist' of a sortl' and the peculiar brand of classicism that is so strongly evident in these anti­ wagner works can be seen to permeate nietzsche's philosophical thought . . nietzsche's embrace and rejection of wagner most good biographical and general historical/ philosophical works on nietzsche provide some treatment of his relationship with richard wagner. as a young man nietzsche became captivated with wagner's music, and upon meeting wagner he became captivated with the man as well and grew very close to him. while the literature suggests that per2 ~;onalities were probably the most important factor in the intensity of their n:'lationship, it is also clear that a philosophical dimension was present from the beginning. for one thing, when they met both men were very interested in schopenhauer, although nietzsche would soon begin to move away from him more importantly, wagner's music and hbrettos ~parked nietzsche's interest in the morat philosophical, and psychologi­ cal dimensions of art, and nietzsche found wagner's writings on aes­ thetics useful (hollingdale 1965, 60). as for nietzsche's later rejection of wagner, much of the scholarly speculation has focused on nietzsche's later psychological state and on various aspects of his personal relation­ !,hips with wagner and his wife. in addition, some scholars such as walter kaufmann point to alarm on nietzsche's part at wagner's increasingly public role in promoting anti-semitism and german imperialism, al­ though nietzsche mentions these concerns only in passing (kaufmann ]974,38). in nietzsche's own view, however, the basis for his rejection of wagner was largely philosophical. the biographer rj. hollinen81f' ;:)r­ gues that wagner's influence had essentially led nietzsche astray and contributed to some confusion in his early philosophy, and that in reject­ ing wagner nietzsche was coming into his own (hollingdale 1965, 78). thus, an exploration of some of the philosophical bases for nietzsche's reversal highlights important aspects of his mature thought. in richard wagner in bayreuth nietzsche heaps praise upon wagner and closely associates his operas with the best of classical greek tragedy. nietzsche had already dedicated to wagner his early work the birth of tragedy, in which he attempts to explain the nature and value of greek tragedy. in that book nietzsche identifies and describes the two elements that he believes characterize great tragic works, thf' "apol1onian" and "dionysian," and he associates these elements with 1/ dream and intoxi­ cation" respectively (nietzsche 1872, 19). the apollonian is associated with visual imagery, symbols, an elevating sense of order: " ... apollo himself may be regarded as the marvelous divine image of the principium individuationis, whose looks and gestures radiate the full delight, wis­ dom, and beauty of 'illusion'" (nietzsche 1872, 22). in contrast, the dionysian element shatters the principium individuationis in an ecstatic awareness of life: "50 'stirred, the individual forgets himself completely" (nietzsche 1872, 22). the dionysian dimension reflects the fact that one has st:;en, and in a sense one has embraced and been swept up in, all of life, including violence and the inevitability of one's own death. accord­ ing to tracy strong, '''dionysian' appears to be identified not with the chaos, but rather with knowledge ... of the chaos and of the artifice of human life and importance," and it "sees through the illusion that pro­ vides form and definition of the culture" (strong 1975, 140-141). the dionysian offers vitality to the apollonian element; it represents reality 3 in rl way that the concepts evoked by apollonian ii dream" and "illusion" cannot. the apollonian makes possible individuation, order, and the creation of beauty, and provides a kind of counter-balance to the dionysian. for nictzschc, all art, to be great, must possess properly de­ veloped apollonian and dionysian elements, in proper balance. although the two elements are equally important, what is most often missing in what passes for i art' today is the dionysian element. while nietzsche does not quite explicitly use the apollonian-dionysian formula in his pro-wagner bayreuth essay, it is plainly evident that he finds both ele­ ments to be properly present in wagnerian opera. the libretto and stag­ ing are primarily associated with the apollonian dimension, while the most crucial elempnt, wrlgnpr's music, represents the dionysian. nietzsche recognizes man's existence as inevitably tragic. one commentator explains that the know-ledge that w"e need to know" the essence the perma­ nent thing-m-itself "behind" the appearances-to make life in­ telligible and meaningful to us and the concomitant knowl­ edge that we cannot possibly know such an essence make our existence contradictory and therefore tragic. resignation and dionysian pessimism are the only two possible responses to this existential tension of the human condition, once it is rec­ ognized. the latter is an artistic affirmation in tragic music and nrama of the transient and ultimately unknowable character of life, but also of its beauty and power. (heilke 1998,56) the young nietzsche finds that, like greek tragedy, wagner's operas feature great heroes involved in deeds ilnd events that strike at the core of one's life, and that in wagnerian opera one is able to recognize oneself as a tragic character and thereby become ennobled. in the bayreuth essay nietzsche describes the effect of the "tragic" element that makes wagner's work so valuable: with him we ascend to the topmost rung of sensibility and only there do we fancy we have returned to free nature and the realm of freedom; from this height we behold, as though in immense air-drawn reflections, our struggles, victories and defeats as something 'sublime and significant; we have delight in the rhythm of passion and in its victim, with every mighty step the hero takes we hear the dull echo of death and in its proximity we sense the supreme stimulus to life:-thus trans­ formed into tragic men we return to life in a strangely con­ soled mood, with a new feeling of security ... and in any event even nobler than we were before .... (nietzsche 1876, 225) tragedy elevates humanity by sharpening the struggles of life, giving them new meaning and allowing them to be seen from a fresh perspec4 tiv!.'. the manner in that tragedy helps one to move through and beyond tllp struggles of existence, without rejecting them, suggests something of nietzsche's later" overman" who continually /i overcomes himself" and "cr~ates beyond himself." by transforming us into "tragic men" vvagne­ i idn opera and classica1 greek tragedy provide a kind of energizing ef­ !\'cl, since through our experience of the dionysian and our vicarious t'ncounter with death we "sense the supreme stimulus to life." the stimu­ itl<'; wp rpc'pivp, moreover, is of the sort that connects us to life and helps lls to act in the world. as nietzsche explains it, "the soul of music ... ,;(·eks its path through all of you to visibility in movement, deed, struc­ ture and morality" (nietzsche 1876, 217)! for nietzsche, different kinds of art promote different types of char­ .ider. the right kind of art encourages us and enables us to take on the world. nietzsche sharply contrasts this effect with that of typical j/mod­ \'rn art," that aims at "stupefaction or delirium! to put to sleep or to iiltoxicatel to silence the conscience, by one means or the other" (nietzsche 1876, 220)! instead of helping us become morally acute and ready for action, most nineteenth century art ,leads us away from au­ t'hpnhcity imd r:lway from action. it helps us to shut out the hard realities (){ life and to hide from ourselves and from any serious sense of respon­ j,jbilily; it represents an escape. this contrast between two kinds of aes­ thetics is an important part of nietzsche's thought and it dominates all three of his essays on wagner. indeed, it becomes the pivot point for his ft'versaj on the question of the merit of wagner's operas. over time nietzsche's conception of these two types of art changes only subtly in the abstract, but what happens in the process is that he reclassifies wagner fnh11 the 'good art' to the 'bad art' category. in nietzsche contra wagner nietzsche explains that he had previously mistaken wagner's music" as the expression of a dionysian powerfulness of soul1/ when in fact it was something very different. using language sirnilar to that that he had used in richard wagner in bayreuth, he de­ ~iltibes once again the two kinds of aesthetics, this time grouping wagner with the 'wrong' kind of art: every art, every philosophy may be regarded as a medi­ cine and a helping expedient of advancing or decaying life: they always presuppose suffering and sufferers. but there are two kinds of sufferers: on the one hand those suffering from the superabundance of life, who want a dionysian art and simi. lady a tragic insight and prospect with regard to life,-and on the other hand those suffering from the impoverishment of life, who desire repose, stillness, smooth sea, or else ecstasy. con­ vulsion, intoxication furnished by art and philosophy. (nietzsche 1895, 72) 5 nietzsche has decided that wagner 1 s art is "intoxicating," not lionysian. but on what basis has nietzsche made this decision? and ,hat, in fact, is the difference between the two concepts? we have seen 1at in the birth of tragedy nietzsche explicitly associated the dionysian lement with "intoxication." now intoxication appears to be exactly what .e is arguing against; is he reversing himself? nietzsche is perhaps not ctually reversing himself, but a subtle shift has indeed occurred. he is mploying greater caution; he has become more keenly aware that all h.at is "intoxicating" is not dionysian. in fact, nietzsche has discovered h.at more often than not, that which is "intoxicating" produces an effect 'ery different from the kind that he desires. one can, and indeed one oust, become intoxicated with life, but in most cases intoxication actu­ lily represents a flight from life. nietzsche therefore no longer under­ tands wagner as an example of the best that art can offer, energizing md equipping us for life. instead, wagner's opera becomes the supreme ~xample of "decadent" art, ~educing u~ in the manner of an "opiate," ieadening us to life. the remainder of this article will be devoted to ~xploring philosophical dimensions of the distinctions nietzsche makes jetween these two kinds of art, as well as their moral and political impli­ :ations, while addressing the question of precisely why nietzsche feels :ompelled to reject wagner so vehemently. rejecting wagnerian christianity for nietzsche, the flight from life that is characteristic of modern cul­ ture manifests itself in wagner's operas in various ways. one of the more obvious ways is in a fascination with the supernatural, and, more generally, in wagner's expression of "christianity." the extent to which wagner's work is actually "christian," as opposed to representing a mis­ use or perversion of christianity, is open to question but is not a matter for discussion here; neither is the accuracy of nietzsche's understanding of christianity itself, as opposed to his treatment of what is offered by wagner. what is important here is that the "christian" dimension of wagner's work is something that nietzsche seizes upon repeatedly, and it is wagner's last and most blatantly christian work parsifal that pro·· vokes the strongest reaction from him: "i despise everyone who does not regard parsifal as an outrage on morals" (nietzsche 1895, 80). in­ deed, nietzsche's final philosophical break with wagner may have been precipitated by the appearance of this last opera. pars~fal stands out since, while almost all of wagner's operas incorporate some sort of a super­ natural element, it is focused on in parsifal in a new way! as a conscious external force directing and controlling the action. the legendary title character may seem like an admirable hero; he 6 i\'lt3inly performs worthy deeds. his name, however, means "pure fool" i hj~; fool performs feats that other men have been unable to accomplish, bringing salvation and relief to others. it had been foretold that only one \'vith exceptional innocence would be able to accomplish the task, and i '.ilsifal fits the bill. when parsifal first appears he actually comes across ,i' .•. limost an idiot, displaying little comprehension of what is going on d rolmd him. over the course of the opera, however, he becomes "wise through compassion" as foretold, resists temptation, and, with some su­ pernatural assistance, performs noble deeds (wagner 1938,429-430). al­ though parsifal demonstrates a certain amount of bravery and steadfast­ m'"s, one can see why he would be a particularly distasteful hero from nietzsche's standpoint. for parsifal begins his adventure as a foot and ,1lhieves what he does in large part because he is a pawn of supernatural fllrces. a voice from the holy grail foretelling the arrival of parsifal re­ h'rs to him as "my chosen tool" (wagner 1938, 441). instead of enno­ hling man, the story of parsifa1 degr;:\c1es m;:\n hy highlighting his small­ lit"':;:' and impotence in the face of the supernatural and by belittling his ,i( hit'vements. the greatest man cannot do deeds as great as those of a ttt\j\ chosen by god. dy thus erasing the differences between men, parsifal drags man down and appeals to the ressentiment that is characteristic of niodem inverted morality. indeed, it is the supernatural, and not parsifal himseit, that dominates the opera. the holy grail is featured promi­ twntly, blinding1y illuminated; a "halo of glory pours down over all" (wagner 1938, 470); the sacred spear hovers magically; a castle collapses; ,j white dove descends. at times the performers seem almost insignifi­ \ ,mt in comparison with the supernatural imagery. a flight to the supernahtral1~ .;:\!;~odmpd hy n1ptzsche with an abdi­ calion of one's responsibility to live one's own life heroically in a world in which god is dead, and one can see in the elevation of the idiot parsifal ~ jcmonstration of the inverted "christian morality" or "slave moral ity" that nietzsche opposes. parsifal gains wisdom only through com­ pa~sion, and an emphasis on compassion in place of other virtues is of course associated by nietzsche with slave morality. it is particularly sig­ njficant that parsifal's primary assets are his natural innocence, chastity, ~md purity; this amounts for nietzsche to a rejection of life. he main­ ti1ins that "parsifal is a work of cunning, of revengefulness, of secret poi­ son-brewing, hostile to the pre-requisites of life; a bad work. -the preach­ ing of chastity is ;m incitement to anti-naturalness./t (nietzsche 1895, 80). if parsifal's good qualities are supposed to be natural, why does the op­ t'ra represent an "incitement to anti-naturalness"? because in nietzsche's view such "christian" virtues are not "natural." as will be discussed later, despite his own occasional praise of the "natural" nietzsche was opposed to the romantic idealization of nature and to what it implies. 7 the language nietzsche uses to denounce pa"s~fal sets up obvious ten­ sions with elements of nietzsche's earlier praise of wagner. for exampie, the young nietzsche had remarked: in the ring des nibelungen i discover the most moral music i know, for example when brunnhilde is awoken by siegfried; here he attains to an elevation and sanctity of mood that makes us think of the glowing ice-and snow-covered peaks of the alps, so pure, solitary, inaccessible, chaste and bathed in the light of love does nature appear here; clouds and storms, even the sub­ lime itself, are beneath it. (nietzsche 1876, 202) here nietzsche embraced the ilpure" and" chaste"; why does he now deride it? he has become more sensitive to the fact that purity and chas­ tity come in different forms. a kind of 'purity' and i chastity' can exist in the overman who has embraced life to the fullest,; they become a part of his nature. more often, however, purity and chastity represent a kind of denial of life, and are something externally imposed against one's na­ ture. ii is significant that it is wagner's freachi1lg of chastity to which , nietzsche takes exception; to him this reflects a form of hypocrisy or bad faith. moreover, the innocence of parsifal may be contrasted with the 'innocence' of nietzsche's overman. '10 achieve the overman's kind of innocence one must first confront a world without absolutes and take on complete responsibility for one's life. that is, one must in a sense over­ come both one's own impulses and the world's conventions and move through it all to a new kind of innocence. as zarathustra says, one must become a camel and a lion and then a child (nietzsche 1883-1892, 55). in contrast, parsifal was never anything but a child, and his innocence, like that of a child, is the innocence of one who has never assumed real re­ sponsibilily and is incapable of doing so. in celebrating the innocence of parsifal, wagner is celebrating an unthinking, unreflective kind of exist­ ence. this is not the life of the overman but that of nietzsche's "last man." a tension in nietzsche's thought is also highlighted by his explicit rejection of wagner's focus on the "transcendent" or on anything exter­ nal to oneself. the earlier nietzsche of richard wagner in bayreuth main­ tained that if tragedy is to serve its function of helping one to achieve a new perspective and overcome oneself, it must help one look beyond oneself: the individual must be consecrated to something higher lhan himself-that is the meaning of tragedy; he must be free of the terrible anxiety which death and time evoke in the indi­ vidual: for at any moment, in the briefest atom of his life's course, he may encounter something holy that endlessly out­ weighs all his struggle and all his distress-this is what it means 8 to have a sense for the tragic; all the ennoblement of mankind is enclosed in this supreme task .... (nietzsche 1876, 213) clearly nietzsche here sees a dedication to something beyond onethat is, a kind of reverence, as a path to ennoblement. in this work it\' h(:~izes upon the theme of "selfless loyalty" as fulfilling this function. lh·votion to something, in this case loyalty, so complete that one may be willing to sacrifice one's life or hopes, serves to help one to overcome udeself in a way that is vaguely like that of the later overman; it is enno­ hling. something almost religious appears to be going on here. indeed, nietzsche states approvingly that loyalty "it; the most personal primal ('vent that wagner experiences and reveres like a religious mystery" (nh,,~tzsche 1876, 203). even at this stage nietzsche rejects a supernatural i'i'illity and he is leery of "transcendence" or of reified abstract concepts (if any kind; consequently, he seizes on loyalty as an uplifting theme in wagner. this is somewhat defensible since ,although 'loyalty' itself may an abstract concept, loyalty to a particular person is not; it is some­ thing that is expressed in concrete meaningful action. nevertheless, the ilimost religious dimension of the devotion to loyalty, expressed with nud1 words as "holy" and "consecrated/' seems like something that t>lmuld make nietzsche uncomfortable. how the later nietzsche thought "buut this particular issue it; undear, for he does not dit;t..:w;s it in hi::; anti­ wakner tracts. instead he focuses there on criticizing more explicit refer­ ('!lees to some kind of "absolute." however, it is clear that despite nit'tzsche's rejection of the supernatural he never seems to relinquish tht' belief in the necessity forca sense of "something holy.'" after all, al­ though zarathustra believes that god is dead, he is "the most pious of all those· who do not believe in god" (nietzsche 1883-1892, 272). zarathustra h (i friend to the unemployed pope, for he loves all pious men. nietzsche ,tol's not intend his pjety howpvprr to hp oirp('fpo towrlro ,~ rpifipo f'xtpr­ h,d absolute; one might say that it reflects an awesome reverence for nhm's responsibility and for the power of life. in beyond good and evil nietzsche maintains, "the noble soul has reverence for itself" (nietzsche lmtl6, 256). in contrast, the piety of wagner comes to be perceived by nietzsche as directing one toward something external and away from 11 f(i. zarathustra's piety is the sort that highlights one's own responsibil­ ity, while wagner's represents a flight away from responsibility. another "christian" element that is particularly prominent in parsifal b the theme of salvation. indeed, wagner takes pains to highlight connec­ tions between the title character and christ. nietzsche, however, discov­ ""j:; salvation to be a dominant theme not just in parsifal but also in every one of wagner's operas. often, "salvation" takes on its religious, super­ li.ltural form, but that is not always the case. in many operas various characters must be 'saved' in much more mundane ways, but for nietzsd le 9 this is no better than a focus on christian salvation. for him anv belief that one must be saved is a reflection of the life-denying slave mo~ality: the need of salvation . .. is the sincerest form of expression of decadence, the most convinced and most painful affirmation of it in sublime symbols and practices. the christian wishes to get loose from himself .... noble morality, master morality, has, reversely, its roots in a triumphing self-affirmation, -it is the self-affirming, the self-glorifying of life; it equally needs sublime symbols and practices, but only "because its heart is too full." (nietzsche 1888, 56) if one desires to be saved, one desires to escape one's present life through the action of another. this is true whether the salvation involves one's immortal soul or whether it involves more mundane aspects of one's life. such a desire signals an unwillingness to embrace life as it actually exists or to take full responsibility for leading one's own life; it is a kind of giving up, a surrender to an escapist mentality. a better under­ standing of nietzsche's view of this mentality, and why he believes it to be present in some forms of art and not in others, will be pursued in the next section. the political significance of this mentality will be discussed in the section thereafter. rejecting wagnerian romanticism in the case of wagner nietzsche returns to the discussion of the two types of art, explaining that every age has in its quantum of energy, a quantum determin­ ing what virtues are permitted to it, what virtues are proscribed. it has either the virtues of ascending life, ... or it is itself an epoch of descending life, and then it requires the virtues of decline, then it hates all that justifies itself solely by plenitude, by superabundance of strength. aesthetics is indissolubly bound up with these biological presuppositions: there is a deca­ dence deslhet1i.:::', i::tlul there .it:; clu::;::;icul destlu~tks . . .. in the narrower sphere of so-called moral values there is no greater cofltrast than that of master morality and morality according to christian valuation. . .. the former communicates to things out of its fulness-it glorifies, it embellishes, it rationalises the world, the latter impoverishes, blanches, and mars the value of things, it denies the world. (nietzsche 1888, 54-55) this passage, similar to a passage that appears in the "what is ro­ manticism?" aphorism of the gay science, is particularly important be­ cause it clearly links nietzsche's views on aesthetics with his critique of christian morality. the contrast between christian morality and 10 nidzsche's own morality is seen by nietzsche as essentially a special i..be of the contrast between the modern aesthetics of wagnerian roman­ ticism (here called "decadence aesthetics") and classical aesthetics. in niftz,sche contra wagner the christian is in fact identified as a "species of ~picurean" that nietzsche sees as the antithesis of a "dionysian greek" (nit·tzsche 1895, 73). for nietzsche, ethics and aesthetics are of course intimately related and could even be considered indistinguishable. there­ fure it should not be surprising that nietzsche's condemnation of the "slave morality" present in wagner's work is manifest in large part in .i! tacks on wagner's brand of romantic aesthetics. in the process of mak­ ing these attacks nietzsche appears to embrace classical aesthetics to a "h'gf'ee that may seem surprising, given what one may consider to be its l'\'slrictive and limiting nature. one might think that it would be classi­ (\\1 aesthetics that nietzsche would associate with christian morality and with the denial of life, and that he would associate expansive wagnerian jnrnnnticism with ai/superabundance of strength" and with that which ilglorifies" and "embellishes" the world. but in his anti-wagner essays ni{-'t2schc paints pictures of wagner's art that at times read like the most hmd-core classicist's disparagement of romanticism: french romanticism and richard wagner are very c10sely connected .... altogether fanatics of expression, great discov­ erer in the domain of the sublime, also of the loathsome and the shocking, still greater discoverer in effect, in display, ... with dismal access to everything that seduces, allures, forces, or upsets, born enemies of logic and the straight line, covetous of the foreign, the exotic, the monstrous, and all opiates of the senses and understanding. on the whole, a rashly-venhliing, magnificently violent, high-flying, and high up-pulling kind of artists .... (nietzsche 1895, 76-77) like a good classicist, nietzsche complains that wagner's music pos­ ~1'nst's "chaos in place of rhythm" and "just seeks to break up all symme­ try of measure and intensity" (nietzsche 1895, 68). wagner promotes <i an ever greater indifference to all severe, noble conscientious training in the service of art; the belief in genius substituted for it ... " (nietzsche lmmh,44-45). wagner's style, like most of modern culture, is "decadent"; lhis decadence is characterized in part by a lack of harmonious order; "the whole has ceased to live together" (nietzsche 1888, 25). 'wagner has llt'rnonstrated that he is not a true musician by "abandoning all lawful­ ness and-to speak more definitively-all style in music ... " (nietzsche hu~8f 29) is there a sound philosophical basis for nietzsche's embrace of classi­ cal aesthetics and rejection of romanticism, or does he turn to the classic­ versus-romantic argument just because wagner is a romantic and this 11 line of argument is therefore an easy way to denigrate him? while nietzsche's personal feelings toward wagner may be partly responsible for the intensity of his rush to classicism, nietzsche's classicism is also integral to his philosophical thought. for, as other commentators on ro­ manticism have observed, classical aesthetics can have the effect of an­ choring one in reality and equipping one for action in the world, while romanticism often tends to take one out of the world and to hinder moral action (babbitt 1919). if there is one thing to which nietzsche is opposed it is to sl1ch fl disconnection. contrasting wagner with bizet nietzsche says "bizet makes me productive. all that is good makes me productive. i have no other ... proof of what is good" (nietzsche 1888, 7). an appreciation of nietzsche's embrace of classicism becomes par­ ticularly important when one considers his conception of the overman. the "self-overcoming" of the overman is in nietzsche's view something very different from romantic expansiveness or unleashed passion. it is true that the overman does not embrace conventions and that in a sense he makes his own morality. however, the overman is also something of a well-ordered soul in the classical tradition, and he is keenly aware of his responsibility for 'moral' action of a sort. since the overman is the opposite of a slave, he certainly cannot be a slave to his passions any more than he can be a slave to other men. he does not reject his instincts, urges, and passions, but he accepts them in such a manner in which they constitute him without controlling him. only a well-ordered soul has a hope of doing this, and becoming a well-ordered soul is accomplished in part through a dose of classical :restraint. this means that, even though one does not become a slave to convention, one make~ the ~pirit uf lhe classical tradition one's own. citing two passages contained in the will to power, kaufmann observes that nietzsche is not exhorting the mass of men to renounce tradi­ tional restraints. he denounces what he considers wagner's typically romantic libertinism ... and he writes: " ... there is nothing romantic about greatness of soul." "greatness of soul" is a translation of aristotle's megalopsychia. and ... aristotle's conception apparently made a tremendous impression on nietzsche, whose opposition to christianity can scarcely be seen in proper perspective apart from aristotle's ethics. (kaufmann 1974,382) as the literary scholar irving babbitt describes it, the classicist em­ braces decorum since" decorum is for the classicist the grand master-piece to observe because it is only thus he can show that he has a genuine cen­ tre set above his own ego" (babbitt 19191 265). this may help explain classicism's attraction for nietzsche. even though he emphatically re­ jects any focus on the supernatural or other externals, nietzsche seems to 12 that one still needs some kind of a ii genuine centre set above his {"(vn ego." this can be seen in his early interest in a devotion to "selfless ~v;dty/" in the "pious" nature of zarathustra, and in the contrast between overman and the "last man," who may be seen as characterized in ! by a profound lack of piety or reverence toward anything. nietzsche of course, a classical philologist by training and profession, and he have seen in the classical embrace of decorum a path toward order, ,lt~discipline, and a kind of' elevation' of life in the face of the abyss. he must reject the romantic wagnerian approach since it rejects decorum and one without any sound basis for ordering one's life. while nietzsche's expressed anti-romanticism is undeniable, the ex­ if lit tu which he can be considered a classicist may be subject to debate. ~tzsche himself declined to label himself a classicist, but his reasons do nbt appear to reflect major differences in approach. in the gay science, 11'1' identifying and denouncing "romantic pessimism," he adds this pmt'l1thetical note: "that there still could be an' altogether different kind pc~lsimism, a classical type; ... only the word "classical" offends my .'cihh, it is far too trite and has become round and indistinct. i call this p.';"-imism of the future ... dionysian pessimism" (nietzsche 1882, par. the term "classicism" had become "trite" and '"indistinct" because the prevalence of various forms of neoclassicism that represented ei­ a rigid, formal adherence to the external forms of greek classicism,. tot' n kind of romanticism that looked back to classical greece in a manner )\jmi!nr to that in which romanticism looks back to the middle ages. in case the truly classical spirit in the best sense was missing. nietzsche not reject this spirit but embraced it; he rejected the term j classical' because he could not abide its misuse. of course, nietzsche's 'clas­ ",\.>""" is by no means identical with traditional classicism as it is usually un\'lt~rstood, for nietzsche rejects any ontological or metaphysical framethat presumes the existence of an ordered cosmos. one could per­ say that to a significant degree nietzsche's overall project repre­ ',.'nh an attempt to capture the best of the classical spirit and to derive its "hlul"ordering benefits without reference to an ordered universe. flow exactly for nietzsche, does the conflict between wagnerian rohi.mti(,: aesthetics and classical aesthetics tie to that between "christian" morality and master morality? nietzsche tells us that 1nagner tlatters every nihilistic (buddhistic) instinct and disguises it in music .... [e]verything that has grown up on the soil of impov­ erished life, the entire false coinage of transcendence and an other world, has in wagner's art its sublimest advocate-not in formulae (wagner is too prudent to use formulae) but in its persuasion of sensuality, which, in its turn, again makes the mind tender and fatigued. (nietzsche 1888, 46) 13 nietzsche understands that art mav in fact be more effective than ex~ plidt doctrines or philosophical arguments in promoting a particular type of morality. the' escapist' quality of religion, expressed by wagner in the "false coinage of transcendence and another worl.d," is mirrored by the escapist quality of "decadent" modern romanticism in general. the very "sensuality" of wagner's work represents such escapism. accord­ ing to nietzsche, "wagner never calculates as a musician from any kind of musical conscience; he wants effect, he wants nothing but effect" (nietzsche 1888, 29). as a result, "wagner's music is never true" (nietzsche 1888, 30). why is wagner's music not "true"? because in striving for" effect" wagner is pursuing appearance rather than substance; he ends up mixing noble imagery with "slave morality." his sensuality is not the sort that connects one with life or helps one to experience real­ ity, but that serves as a diversion, a tonic. in contrast, nietzsche argues that when he listens to bizet's carmerz "i become a better man" because bizet's work is straightforward and "without counterfeit coinage;" it avoids cheap sentimentality and "takes the auditor for an intelligent be­ ing" (nietzsche 1888, 6). with wagner, one does not need to confront the facts of life. one need only experience pleasant, thrilling, or uplifting sensations and thereby escape from the realities of life. therefore, the "decadent" ::;emmali::;t ullililald y denies the world just as much as does one who looks to the transcendent. since nietzsche criticizes wagner's work for the manner in which his opera takes one out ot the real world, it is not surprising that he speaks derisively of its 'uplifting' quality: "let us walk above the clouds, let us harangue the infinite, let us surround ourselves with grand symbols" (nietzsche 1888, 22)! of course, it has already been shown that in his earlier pro-wagner essay nietzsche had used similar language to sing wagner's praises. at that time nietzsche praised wagner because the elevating and sanctifying of man (or at least of some men) was what nietzsche was fighting for. the later nietzsche is still, in a sense, fight­ ing for thi::>. h~ has, l~owever, realized that what wagner offered was not really a path to humanity's ennoblement. what changed was nietzsche's realization that the "elevation and sanctity of mood" offered by wagner was, ·in fact, nothing but that: a "mood." while the characters and deeds of the scandinavian legends may be noble in themselves, wagner does not present them in a manner that is particularly conducive to their use as models for noble action in the real world. the emphasis is placed so strongly on feeling rather than on action that the opera is more likely to become an "opiate" that actually impairs one's ability to act in the world. in the bayreuth essay nietzsche recognized that wagner's operas took one away from the mundane difficulties and trivialities of one's daily life, but he believed then that one felufnej enelgized for action, trans14 illttnl'd into a man" a perspective on one's own ruggles. when nietzsche rejects wagner he deddes that most men (and linen, even more so!) return with a longing to recapture the way they jvll during the performance but not with a will to truly heroic behavior i h 'l1lselves. thus nietzsche says of wagner, "to look enviously towards l11'\~'ll'r morality, noble morality ... and at the same time to have in his 1i11hilji lite conlrary doclline, lhe "gospel of lhe lowly/' lhe need of sdl­ ,ilion! ... " (nietzsche 1888, 55-56). those who return from wagner's \!1'1'rtls do not want to plunge into their lives but to be saved from them, ! it ',lliened to them. in its effect, "wagner's influence is like a continuous of alcohol" (nietzsche 1888, 47). n idzsche originally took wagner's operas to be something like greek 1!';i~wdy in part because the heroic, the beautiful, and the ugly can be in both. why does nietzsche later come to believe that the effects of ;/'t'i.,k tragedy and wagnerian romanticism are so different? in t'wilight 1111' idols nietzsche remarks, "what does the tragic artist communicate of does he not display precisely the condition of fearlessness in the 1"11' lif llie fearsome dnd questionable?" (nielzsche 1889, 92). wagner's till tails to promote "fearlessness" because it is unwilling to confront hll11l'stly lithe fearsome and questionable" in life; one does not gaze into th,' ,lbyss. instead there is tlight either to an "absolute,," which may be ('itill'!' explicit or vague, or to a kind of mindless sensation, or to some h 1\ iii d y combination of the two. in any case the result is a kind of i good iltllilg' that is unreflective, unearned, and empty. of course, we have n'l\ that the flight to an absolute and to unreflective sensation or feelm(' for niflr7.~('hfl fl~~flnti<'ll1y thfl ~;::tmfl thine;. hfl ()h;;flrvfl~ th<'lt it is not with music that wagner has won the youth over to himself, it is with the "idea": it is the mysteriousness of his dfl, its game of hide-and-seek among a hundred symbols, its polychromy of the ideal, which has led and allured these youths to wagner! his wagner's genius for forming clouds .... they hear with trembling how in his art the sublime symbols become dudible with gentle thunder out of the cloudy distance .... (nietzsche 1888, 37-38) nietzsche refers to wagner as hegel's heir. he tells us that wagner ·k.mh'd like hegel that germans love 'lithe idea', that is to say, some­ dung nbscure, uncertain, mysterious; that among gernnans clearness is ,in objpction, and logic a disproof' (nietzsche 1888, 36-37). god may be but wagner is offering his followers the i absolute' on the cheap. jlhing need be dearly defined or ullderslandable, bul only a sense need l.w evoked of transcendence, of something beyond one's everyday con­ i'll' world. the flight to such a sense is for nietzsch.~ as morally dis­ hl)llt'st as the flight to god, and it is perhaps even more dishonest intel15 lectually since it depends upon obscurity to function. \!vagner "is pos­ sessed of every ambiguity, every equivocation, everything, in fact, which persuades the undecided, without making them conscious whatthey are persuaded to" (nietzsche 1888, 45). this deliberate ambiguity contrasts with the master morality that 11 rationalises the world." the unreflective and anti-intellectual quality of wagner's work is an element repeatedly seized upon by nietzsche. he remarks of wagner: "how he humours every cowardice of modern soul with siren tonesl­ there was never such a mortal hatred of knowledge" (nietzsche 1888, 47)! the kind of "knowledge" that wagner shirks is that required for moral honesty; if one keeps things fuzzy, one need not be pimled down. in criticizing wagner's lack of clarity nietzsche places himself on danger­ ous ground, for his early discussions of aesthetics emphasized the im­ portance of the inarticulate, non-rational dimensions of art. nietzsche had in fact praised wagner with these words: now, if the gods and heroes of such mythological dramas as wagner writes are to communicate also in words, there is no greater danger than that this spoken language will awaken the theoretical man in us and thereby heave us over into the other, non-mythical sphere: so that in the end we should not through the employment of words have understood more clearly what is taking place before us but, on the contrary~ have failed to understand it at all. that is why wagner has forced language back to a primordial state in which it hardly yet thinks in concepts and in which it is itself still poetry, image and feel­ ing. (nietzsche 1876, 237) likewise, in the birth of tragedy nietzsche denounces "socratism," that is, the theoretical, metaphysical, logicat abstract focus that emerged in greek philosophy. he is particularly critical uf the greek philu::;u­ phers' emphasis on reason and of their equation of virtue with knowl­ edge (nietzsche 1872, 92-95). of course, when nietzsche later criticizes wagner's ambiguity he is not actually advocating a movement to a highly conceptual "socratism" but is simply urging a return to something more like greek tragedy, which did not disingenuously mix noble imagery with slave morality, which did not use ambiguity to hide an absolute, and which did not emphasize "feeling" and "effect" to the point that they came to obliterate any connection to concrete reality. nevertheless, a certain tension is evident between nietzsche's later criticisms of wagner and his earlier views. nietzsche had always embraced the spirit of greek tragedy, but in rejecting wagner he also seems, in some ways, to have edged a little closer to the greek philosophers whom he had once criti­ cized. one may speculate that when nietzsche realized that the perfect blending of the apollonian and dionysian which he thought he had found 16 iii wagner was in fact something very different, and when he became ,1 tl u ned to the dangerous effects of "decadent" romanticism, he became lllore circumspect about extolling the virtues of the non-rational and in­ ,11'1 indate over the rational and conceptual. political implications what is the effect of wagner's art on one who i.s raised on it? "the \'outh becomes a moon-calf-an 'idealist'" (nietzsche 1888, 47). roman­ \11. idealism and an inability to take constructive action tend to go hand­ ill-hand, and both are symptoms of wagnerian romanticism's tendency itl disconnect one from real life. interestingly, while romantic idealism ill"), impair one's ability to act effectively on a personal level, it may at tlw same time be a spur to another kind of action. nietzsche sums up the \\i,lgn('rian spirit at one point as "let us be idealists! ... let us ... make lll.lllkind better!-one thereby becomes good ... " (nietzsche 1888, 22'\), in abandoning classical morality the emphasis of wagnerian roman­ t it ism becomes an "idealism" that is externally rather than internally pih'nted. that is, instead of focusing on the ordering of one's own soul, "iii' focuses on making mankind as a whole better. and, since romanti­ ,l',m involves a rejection of standards, and romantic idealism encour­ .11'.i's the view that something is radically wrong with the existing world, lllsiinctive politics results. nietzsche describes such modern politics in ('/lsi' of wagner: . "whence comes all the evil in the world?'" wagner asks him­ self. from "old conventions" he answered, like every revolu­ tionary ideologist. that means from customs, laws, morals, ,md institutions, from all that the old world, old society rest nn. "how does one do away with old society?" only by de­ claring war against "conventions" (traditional usage and mo­ rcllity). that is what siegfried does. (nietzsche 1888, 14) llere nietzsche actually places himself in the position of defending illd '\'ustoms, laws, morals, and institutions" against wagner's desire to dl .. .;troy them. while this may seem out of character, one can see how ll'l/,s('hf' might find value' in old customs, morals, etc., at least for those tlf \p.; who cannot live the life of a full-blown overman. in his early works i it" (lbserved that "in order to act we require the veil of illusion" (nietzsche ! 51 ), and that" a living thing can be healthy, strong and fruitful only it'll bounded by a horizon" (nietzsche 1874, 63). the necessary "illu­ ',]tln" contributing to one's horizon is of course represented by the j\ jlollonian "dream" element that comes to be incorporated into il'!zsche's concept of the "dionysian." some classicists and tradition­ d lists share with nietzsche recognition of the importance of this /i dream" 17 element. for example, babbitt observed that "to say that the classicist .. . gets at his reality with the aid of the imagination is but another way of saying that he perceives his reality only through a veil of illusion" (bab­ bitt 1919, 102). nietzsche found that greek tragedy and culture once helped to provide the right kind of llillusion" or "'horizon." today we have much less to draw upon, but old customs, morals, traditions, and institutions can still playa role in promoting order and in equipping one for action, just as for edmund burke they made up the "wardrobe of a moral imagination" (burke 1790,67). nietzsche sees that in rejecting old ways wagner is effectively reject­ ing standards. nietzsche can criticize wagner for this because he be­ lieves that wagner does not reject standards in the manner of a true over­ man who has gazed into the abyss. instead, wagner's blanket rejection of standards amounts to a denial of the need to work on the ordering of one's own soul. without the demands imposed on the self by classical standards, virtue loses the meaning it had held in the greek world and becomes redefined as sympathy for the plight of mankind. thus, nietzsche rejects wagner's "idealistic falsity and softening of conscience" (nietzsche 1895, 81). wagner, nietzsche believes, is not calling for a critical examination of established ways but for their wholesale rejection as the cause of itlankind's houbles. with .such a i-ejection wagner is essentially trying to negate the world and to avoid the hard task of actually living in it. wagner's idealistic dreaming of a new, wholly different world is sim­ ply another manifestation of romantic escapism. nietzsche's recognition of this dynamic is in fact also a key element behind his condemnation of rousseau. the imagination by rousseau and certain other romantics of an idealized "nature," which they oppose to our corrupting culture, rep­ resents to nietzsche a flight from reality essentially the same as that which he finds in christianity, and is another manifestation of slave morality. nietzsche clearly recognized that this phenomenon assumes a political form. according to adrian del caro, the quarrel is with social and political visionaries, types nietzsche considered to be modern and therefore decadent. they share the belief, which smacks of rousseau's "snpersn­ tion," that if only the existing order can be brought down, then the nobleness and pride of humanity would rise up. the su­ perstition is this: the original, wondrous nature of man-his innate goodness-is buried under the corruption in institu­ tions .... (del caro 1989, 105-106) while nietzsche himself sometimes praises the "natural" and de­ nounces much of modern culture, strong agrees with del caro that, un­ like rousseau, nietzsche does not believe that a "natural and happy man" would emerge if civilized morality were thrown off (strong] 975, 49). 18 once more a contrast is presented between a spirit that embraces life and one that denies it. instead of undertaking the hard work of improv­ ing oneself and one's actions, one simply rejects this ,vorld and seeks to bring another world into being. in the case of rousseau, del caro finds that "his own shortcomings \,vere his inspiration, insofar as his personal experience was the basis for his blaming society for the decline of cul­ ture. rousseau, according to nietzsche, would cure himself by curing society" (del caro 1989, 101). of course, such a project cannot be suc­ cessful. what is the ultimate result as portrayed by wagner himself in the ring series? in the final version, it ends on a dark note. as nietzsche puts it, "everything goes wrong, everything goes to ruin, the new world is as bad as the old .... brunnhilde, who according to the earlier design had to take leave with a song in honour of free love, solacing the world in anticipation of a socialistic utopia in which i all will be well,' now has something else to do. she first has to study schopenhauer .. . " (niet7.rchp 1888, 15-16). this unhappy ending is a manifestation of what has been called the "manic-depressive" nature of certain types of romanticism (ryn 1997). the romantic is unwilling to embrace the world as it is and focus on ordering himself; he dreams instead of a new exterior world. since this dream is hopeless the romantic may become morose and embittered. this is why so much romanticism has a dark side. in the case of wagner, "everything he touches he makes morbid-he has made music morbid" (nietzsche 1888, 16). his romantic dreams ultimately lead not to happi­ ness but to a despairing .kind of pessimism or nihilism. this phenom­ enon, labeled by nietzsche "romantic pessimism," most clearly shows the linkage between romanticism and ressentimenl. according to nietzsche, the desire for destruction, change, and becoming can be an ex­ pression of an overflowing energy that is pregnant with fu­ ture (my term for this is, as is known, "dionysian,"); but it can a150 be lite lu:tlreu uf the ilh:uiu:;tituted, dbinherited, and un­ derprivileged, who destroy, must destroy, because what exists, indeed all existence, all being, outrages and provokes them. to understand this feeling, consider our anarchists closely. (nietzsche 1882, par. 370) conclusion for nietzsche, wagnerian opera came to exemplify some of the worst characteristics of /i decadent" modern culhtre. the kind of sentimental "christianity" and /i decadent" romanticism that it embraced represented a particular moral outlook and frame of mind. this outlook incorpo­ rated the ressentiment that is characteristic of inverted "slave morality," 19 and, even more importantly, it encouraged dreams of a nevv, idealistic world. both the sensuality and quasi-religious feeling present in \vagner' s work acted as liopiates" to take the listener away from the concerns of the real world, and fostered an unwillingness to assume full responsibil­ ity for one's own life or to engage in the ordering of oneself. as a result, devotees of wagner (and, to degree, all who are influenced by the ii deca­ dent" aspects of modern western culture) are for nietzsche operating under a kind of moral impairment. they are not equipped to act in the world in a truly correct manner. instead, their desire to be "saved" from the real world and to be "uplifted" without personal moral effort sets up a particular political dynamic that may perhaps be best characterized as a kind of i salvific' politics. such politics, seen by nietzsche as character­ istic of modernity, tend to foster a shift of responsibility away from the individual and toward the kind of bourgeois state that nietzsche held in contenl.pt. in its fully developed form this dynamic manifests itself as the revolutionary ideological politics that blossomed in the early twenti­ eth century. such politics embody an unfulfillable desire to completely abolish the existing order and traditional standards and to erect in their place a new, idealized, uplifting political and social order, the "socialis­ tic utopia" of which nietzsche speaks. in taking a stand against wagnerian romanticism nietzsche emerges as a strong' classicist' of a sort. objections may be raised that the highly i classicist' nietzsche presented here does not represent the whole of nietzsche; this is undeniably true. nevertheless, the nietzsche that ap­ pears in these anti-wagner works· should not be ignored when consider­ ing nietzsche's philosophy as a whole. for example, it becomes clear that what nietzsche is aiming for with his overman (whether he achieves it or not) is something quite different from romantic expansiveness, simple ego-worship, or surrender to base impulses. the overman incorporates, among other things, a form of discipline, and bears a vague resemblance to the well-ordered soul of the greek philosophers. the nietzsche of these particular works is in a special sense highly 'moral' in that he em­ phasizes personal responsibility and rejects approaches that direct man's energies toward control of the exterior world as a method of betterment. although significant tensions exist, nietzsche remains for the most part philosophically consistent throughout his proand anti-wagner writings. while personal issues no doubt played a role, nietzsche's re­ versal of opinion on wagner may be attributed in significant part to the maturation of his thought and to his improved perception over time of the effect uf wagner':::; work un the public. ultimately it i:::i nietz:::;che':::; rejection of wagner, not his early enamorment with him, which appears to be most in keeping with his philosophical views. one may in fact suggest that some clarification of nietzsche's thought occurred once he 20 no longer felt compelleu to accoiiilnuudte wagner's !ilu:-,ic favorably within it. nonetheless, nietzsche's ability to classify w"agnerian opera first as the best manifestation of master morality and then as the worst manifestation of slave morality highlights a problem with the vague and 'slippery' nature of his philosophy. if nietzsche himself cannot be cer­ tain of what he means by such terms as "dionysian," how can we? nev­ ertheless, by wrestling with the practical problem of wagner nietzsche helps us to get a better idea of what he means, or at least of what he does not mean, by some of the terms and concepts he uses. today it is a11 the rage in political science to talk about the importance of culture. it is also a commonplace that the maintenance of a particular kind of political order (such as liberal democracy) requires a citizenry with a particular kind of character. however, the precise nature of the linkage between cultural elements, individual character, and political behavior is not always well understood. while it is not uncommon for political scientists to look for relationships between artistic works and politics, most look only for explicit political or ideological content in a work. nietzsche displays a more subtle understanding of how art incor­ porates in itself an ethical dimension that can shape individuals' per­ sonal, social, and political behavior. nietzsche's analysis of wagnerian opera is particularly valuable to us today because of the insight it offers into how the politics of the modern world may have been influenced and may continue to be influenced by cultura.l clements such as the­ ater, music, art, or literature. references babbitt, irving. [1919] 1991. rousseau and romanticism. new brunswick, nj: transaction publishers. burke, edmund. [1790] 1987. reflections 011 the revolution in france, ed. j. g. a. pocock. indianapolis: hackett publishing company. del caro, adnan. 1989. nietzsche contra nietzsche: creativity ana the anti-ro­ mantic. baton rouge: louisiana state university press. heilke, thomas. 1998. nietzsche's tragic regime. dekalb, il: northern illinois university press. hollingdale, r. j. [1965] 1999. nietzsche: the man and his philosophy. new york: cambridge university press. kaufmann, walter. 1974. nietzsche: philosopher, psychologist: a11tichrist. princeton: princeton university press. nietzsche, friedrich. (1872)1956. the birth of tragedy, in the birth of tragedy and the gc:nealogy of lv10rals, tldllb. frdl1ci5 golffing. new york anchor books! doubleday. __ . [1874] 1997. on the uses and disadvantages of history for life, in untimely meditations, ed. daniel breazeale, trans. r. j. hollingdale. new york: cam­ bridge university press. 21 __ . [1876] 1997. richard wagner in bayreuth, in untimely meditations, ed. daniel breazeale, trans. r. j. hollingdale. new york: cambridge university press. __ . [1882] 1974. the gay science, trans. walter kaufmann. new york: ran­ domhouse. __ . [1883-1892j 1969. thus spoke zarathllstra, trans. r. ]. holhngdale. new york: penguin books. __ . [1886j 1989. beyond good and evil, trans. helen zimmern. buffalo, ny: prometheus books. __ . [1888] 1896. the case o.fwagner, in the works of friedrich nietzsche, vol. xi, ed. alexander tille, trans. thomas common. new york: macmillan and co. __ . [1889] 1990. twilight of the idols, in twilight of the idols/the anti-christ, trans. r. j. hollingdale. new york: penguin books. __ . [1895] 1896. nietzsche contra wagner, in the works of friedrich nietzsche, vol. xi, ed. alexander tille, trans. thomas common. new york: macmillan and co. ryn, claes g. 1997. "imaginative origins of modernity: life as daydream and nlohlmale." humanila:5, vol. x, no.2. 41-60. strong, tracy b. 1975. friedrich nietzsche and the politics of transfiguration. berke­ ley, ca: university of california press. wagner, richard. 1938. the j1uthel1tic libretto3 of the' wagnct opems (editor and translators not given). new york: crown publishers. 22 microsoft word volume15.doc commonwealth: a journal of political science commonwealth: a journal of political science is a peer-reviewed journal that publishes original research in all subfields of political science along with interdisciplinary articles. open to a variety of approaches and methodologies, commonwealth seeks manuscripts that are based on theoretical perspectives (empirical or normative) as well as those that employ an historical approach. commonwealth solicits manuscripts for a general issue and one or more policy options issues. an important part of the journal’s mission is to encourage research on topics of 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www.house.state.pa.us/cjps pennsylvania political science association departmental membership to individual members: please remember, when joining the pennsylvania political science association, that membership includes a one-year subscription to commonwealth: a journal of political science and announcements of the annual meetings and call for papers. the current issue of commonwealth is distributed at the spring meeting of the ppsa. other issues, if published, are mailed to members. individuals unable to attend the annual meeting in any given year but wishing to maintain an individual membership should complete and mail the form below. note: if an individual’s department holds a departmental membership, then the individual simultaneously becomes a member and need not personally enroll or pay additional dues to receive the benefits of membership. in addition, as long as a department maintains its departmental membership, it is not necessary for the members of that department to renew their individual memberships each year. if your department has not yet joined the ppsa, the ppsa encourages you to share the departmental membership form in this issue with your chairperson. annual membership rates:  individuals $10  students $ 5 (add $2 for postage to foreign countries) mail to: dr. thomas brogan ppsa treasurer department of political science albright college p.o. box 15234 reading, pa 19612-5234 name: _________________________________________________________ affiliation: __________________________________________________ address: ______________________________________________________ city, state, zip: _______________________________________________ check enclosed in the sum of $ _____________ ó the impact of rhetorical situation on realism as measured by the lexical content of governors' state-of-the-state speeches daniel dileo pennsylvania state university at altoona this study uses roderick hart's method of measuring rhetorical 1/ realism, 1/ defined as language that indicates concern "with ii tangible, immediate, recogniz­ able matters that affect people is everyday lives, in two sets of gubernatorial state­ oj-the-state speeches. the party affiliation of the governor, economic growth and the per capita income of the state, the level of extremism in public opinion and the combination of divided government and the governor's lack of political experience did not have a co1lsistent impact on the level of realism in the gover­ nors'speeches. however, the governors' speeches exhibited higher levels of real­ ism in states with liberal public opinion. a variety of possible explanations for this finding are proposed. when governors present their agendas, they can express concerns that are concrete or abstract, immediate or long-range, and close to the every­ day experiences of their constituents or far from them. roderick hart defines texts that employ language referring to "tangible, immediate, recognizable matters that affect people's everyday lives" as texts that are high in "realism" (1997,49). knowing the levels of realism in governors' speeches can suggest intellectually fertile questions about their goals, intended audiences, and rhetorical strategies. for example, governors whose agenda-setting speeches have high levels of realism could be at­ tempting to communicate directly with the voters, rather than just the legislators, by using everyday words to discuss widely shared concerns. governors exhibiting low levels of realism could be trying to educate the voters or legislators about some relatively arcane topic or they could be "true believers," highly committed to an ideological doctrine that they share with their audience (hart 1971, 253-254). the complex of influences that shape the style and substance of a speaker's rhetoric includes the audience capable of acting in the manner that the speaker intends, the exigency or necessity to persuade the audi­ ence to act, and the constraints that foreclose some rhetorical options while leaving others open (see bitzer 1968). the purpose of this study is to specify the types of rhetorical situations, as defined by complexes of audiences, exigencies, and constraints that are most likely to induce gov­ ernors to employ realistic rhetoric when they propose their agendas. 39 data in most states, governors present their formal agendas in a speech before the legislature at the start of the session in a highly ceremonial setting generally called a "state-of-the-state address." because these speeches are records of the governors' agendas, studies have made use of them to estimate the impact of audiences (van assendelft 1997, ferguson 1996), exigencies (gosling 1991), and constraints (dileo 1997) on the substance of governors' agendas. it is reasonable to assume that to a considerable extent the content and style of gubernatorial rhetoric will depend on the personal concerns, choices of speechwriters, and idiosyncrasies of particular governors. if we look at a set of speeches delivered in a single year, it is very possible that rhetorical variation associated with theoretically interesting macro­ level variables such as party, political culture, public attitudes, or socio­ economic characteristics of states is really coincidental to variation among individual governors. however, if we find that rhetorical variation asso­ ciated with one or more of these large-bore variables is replicated in a set of speeches given in a different year by an entirely different set of gover­ nors, then we can be much more confident that we have found identifi­ able and quantifiable features of the rhetorical situation that shape the style and substance of the state-of-the-state speeches. therefore, this study analyzes two sets of speeches: a set delivered in 1998 and a set delivered by an entirely different group of governors in 1991. budget speeches provided the agendas of the governors of connecti­ cut, maine, nebraska, and vermont in 1991. the budget speech that governor miller of georgia gave in 1998 was examined because he used that speech rather than his state-of-the-state speech to present his agenda that year. methods the content-analysis program, dictionl uses several lists of words (" dic­ tionaries") and a measure of word length to profile a text's "lexical con­ tent," that is, the types of words that the author tends to use. diction calculates a score for "realism" for soo-word segments of text by adding occurrences of words belonging to dictionaries that indicate concern with practical, everyday, immediate concern and accounting for the complex­ ity and variety of the words in each text segment (hart 1997, 49). the appendix provides a more detailed explanation of diction's measure­ ment of "realism." each of the speeches in the data set was composed of more than two soo-word segments of text. a realism score was calculated for each speech 40 by computing the mean of the realism scores for the segments of the speech. none of the speeches contained d number of words that was evenly divisible by 500. therefore, in computing the l1lean realism score for each speech, the remainder segment at the ena of the speech received a weight proportional to its length. after obtaining realism scores for the speeches in the data set, a pair of 500-word passages of lexl from speeches delivered in 1998 was dosely examined. one was the passage with the highest realism score from the speech with the highest realism score that year. the other was the pas­ sage with the lowest realism score from the speech with the lowest rea 1ism score in 1998. inspection of these passages provided a sense of what diction's realism score is measuring. next, the levels of realism in the state-of-the-state speeches were ac­ counted for by examining features of the rhetorical situations that sur­ rounded the speeches and stimulated the governors to propose certain agenda items in certain ways. the primary audiences for the speeches were the state legislatures, which mayor may not have been of the same party as the governor. research on the impact of divided government on gubernatorial agendas as presented in state-of-the state speeches in­ dicates that governors without prior experience in elective office tend to become less willmg to compromise with legislatures and more interested in appealing directly to the public when one or both houses of the legis­ lature is controlled by the opposing party (van assendelft 1997). when this occurs, governors may move away from discussions of specialized technical issues and governmental processes and toward a more realistic discourse rooted in the day-to-day experiences of the voters. in order to account for this type of situation, a dummy variable was used, scored one when the governor had not held prior elective office and faced a legislature with one or both houses controlled by the opposing party. the religious traditions of the groups that have settled in each of the states have given rise to distinctive patterns of orientation to political ac­ tion, or political culture, that influence the expectations and behavior of governors, legislators, and other political actors (elazar 1994, 230-234). realism should be highest in states with individualistic political cultures, where politics revolve around an open competition for particularized material benefits rather than for the abstract ideals that animate the mor­ alistic political culture or the values that undergird the hierarchical social order of the traditionalistic political culture. political culture was operationalized with dummy variables with scores of one for states that are predominantly moralistic and traditionalistic according to elazar's map. the voters are also part of the intended audience. they may be more liberal or more conservative than the voters in other states. the erikson­ wright-mciver rned~ure of publil upinioll wd::; u::;ed to indlcale lhe 41 public's liberalism (1993, 16). it is difficult to predict how public atti­ tudes may affect the degree of realism that the govem.oi exhibits, but in light of the profound effect that they have on the views and behavior of political elites (erikson, wright, and mclver 1993, 78-89), they could well have an impact on gubernatorial realism. it is more logical to expect the extremism of a state's electorate to affect gubernatorial realism. a public extremism variable was computed from the squared deviation of the dif­ ference between the liberalism of a state's electorate and the mean public liberalism of the states in each data set. governors of states with large scores on this variable should be less realistic than other governors. to a considerable extent, economic contraction and expansion define the exigencies that confront governors when they propose their agendas (deyle 1992, gosidl.g 1991). change in each slate's lotal personal income during the year preceding the speech was used to measure economic growth (u.s. department of commerce 1998, 459; 1992, 438; 1991, 441). the wealth or poverty of a state compared to that of other states also presents gover­ nors with a variety of needs to which they may choose to respond. state per capita income in the year preceding the speech served as a measure for this variable (u.s. department of commerce 1998, 460; 1992,439). party affiliation of political elites is a good predictor of their political views and the policies they support (erikson et al. 1993, 96-105). it could be that during the 1990s, governors of one party were more realistic than governors of the other party. therefore, a dummy variable scored 1 for democrats and 0 for independents and republicans was included. findings governor george pataki, republican of new york, gave the speech with the 500-word segments that had the highest mean realism score in the 1998 data set. the following segment had the highest realism score of the fourteen segments in governor pataki's speech. its high score was primarily due to the very high frequencies of words belonging to the "temporal" dictionary, which indicates concern with time, and the "con­ creteness" dictionary, which indicates a preference for discussing spe­ cific objects, people, and actions rather than abstract, general ideas. the words belonging to the temporal dictionary are in italics. the words bel,9nging to the concreteness dictionary are underlined . ... new yorkers that smaller, smarter government. and in doing so, we have given them that tax cut. the vast majority of new yorkers pay state income taxes at rates alleasl25% luwer to/lay thall they dill ill 1994. aud ye:s, 450,000 lower income, working new yorkers now pay no state income taxes at all. 42 but we didn't just cut income taxes. we cut taxes that most new yorkers had never even heard of consumer taxes that weren't even cal1ed taxes, and today even subway and bus fares are go­ ing down for the first time in state history. we've cut so many different taxes in so many different ways -so many times it would take me 10 minutes just to read you the list. before we arrived here three years ago, new york led the nation in raising taxes. every year since then, new york has led the nation in cutting taxes. in 1996, we cut taxes by more than the other 49 states combined. and in 1997, we cut taxes by five times more than illinois, texas, and california combined. by culling laxes, we have taken a giant step in returning eco­ nomic power to the people. but we didn't just cut taxes; we cut spending, by creating that smaller, smarter government. because of our fiscal restraint, we ended our first two years with historic budget surpluses. and this ycar-through our fiscal conservatism and strong economic policies we will end the year with a surplus even larger than last year's $1.4 billion surplus. so let's cut taxes above and beyond the $500 million i've already signed into law for this year. in the budget i send you in two weeks, i will propose more than doubling this year's tax cuts to $1.2 billion. last year we knew it was time to build on the tax cuts of the first two years. from this podium, i told you that it was time to cut taxes again. different taxes. oppressive taxes. prop~ taxes. for the first time in state history, we have a law not an id~a, not a plan, not a suggestion, but a law that will cut school prop­ erty taxes for every homeowner in every community of new york state. under this law, taxp~yers in new york will begin to see their property taxes drop by an average of 27%. that's a big tax cut, and our people deserve it. but knowing, as we do, that school property taxes hurt the eld­ erly especially hard, we wrote the law so our seniors would get an even bigger tax cut phased in over four years. 43 it's a great law. i want to thank you for passing it. i also want you to change it. this year, i will propose amending the law so our seniors get the entire cut this year. which means that by the end of this year, the average senior qj!;~ in new york will get a school property tax cut of at least 45%. this passage has a very high realism score, 2.4 standard deviations abuv~ th~ mean fur 20,000 segmenls of political texts in diction's data bank. the passage deals with the practical, immediate consequences of taxes and tax cuts, and the governor's very concrete plan for reducing tax burdens on particular people. there is very little reference to ab­ stract concepts or technical topics. there is nothing in this passage that is beyond the immediate experience of a relatively disengaged voter. the speech with the segments having the lowest realism score in the 1998 data set was delivered by governor fob james, republican of ala­ bama. the following segment of the speech had the lowest realism score of the six text segments in the speech. it was 1.99 standard deviations below the mean for the 20,000 segments of political texts in diction's data bank. the principal rea:sull for lhis segmenl's low realism score is the length of the words that comprise it. diction uses the average word length in a segment of a text as a measure of "complexity." the average word in this passage was 5.17 letters long, 1.85 standard deviations more than the length of the average word in the segments in diction's data bank. all words of eight letters or more are underlined . ... business, health, and labor will be established to ensure wise use of funds. secondly, because £!gri-business is a cornerstone of our economy and industries such as charoen pokphand, a new poultry pro­ ce:s:sing .!:!peraliun elnploying 1,500 people in barbour and sur­ rounding counties, need research support, i propose $52 million to provide animal and poultry diagnostic laboratories, agricul­ tural and forestry research, and instructional and research facili­ ties for veterinary medicine. thinlly, $10 million la provide adequate facilities for ~y9~;m, training, and research in the forensic sciences, a major compo­ nent in solving criminal cases. finally, $300 million to provide capital improvements for public institutions of higher education. education is more than an ideal thomas iefferson wrote, "the 44 ultimate result of the whole scheme of education would be the teaching of all children of the state reading, writing, and com­ mon arithmetic." together, as parents, grandparents, educators and lawmakers, let us now take the necessary steps to make alabama's public education system second to none. iefferson also founded the university of virginia and said it would be "based on the unlimited freedom of the human mind, to ex­ plore and to expose every subject susceptible of jts contempla­ tion." we would do well to adopt his vision for our very own. in my general fund proposal i again spr­ vices. last year as part of our children's initiative, i requested an additional $5 million for foster family enhancements, but you e!ppropriated only $1 million. i again ask you to support a $5 million e!ppropriation for foster children. i propose a $10 million .appropriation to fund the children's health program to provide coverag~ for an estimated 50,000 children, and an $8 million increase to youth services for s!4@1q1:!:ill private placements. in total, i am requesting over 30 million new dollars for children's initiatives. we have increased the ranks of public safety by over 200 troopers. we have increased our prison capacity by over 3,000 inmates to ensure no criminal who should be locked up will be set free. for three years we have run state government and increased funding for children, for prisons, for law enforcement, and for medicaid but with no new taxes and very little growth in general fund revenue. we did this primarily with a freeze on hiring that through attrition reduced the number of state em­ ployees from 39,000 in december of 1994 to 35,000 in december of 1997, reducing payroll costs by £!pproximately $100 million. cabinet members and state employees have worked hard to cut expenses in purchasing, contracting, communications, and travel and i thank them for making state government more rlf@lli, and for saving the taxpe!yer millions of dollars. (mr. main mr. bakercabinet) t proposp ;:m 8°/., prly trllsp for stme employees funded from sav­ ings created by two early retirement plans. therefore, the pay raise and early ~slation should be tied together. i have said before and i say again, honest government begins with honest elections. you passed our absentee ballot law last year, 45 in this segment, the governor is providing a fairly detailed discussion of his policy agenda. it mentions specific programs, such as foster fam­ ily enhancements, that may be of great interest to certain legislators and a small number of citizens but are of very low general salience. a few of the long words in this segment, such as "susceptible" are highly abstract, and might be used by governors who wished to place their agendas in an ideological context. table 1 presents the realism scores for the 41 speeches in the 1998 data set. a quick inspection of this table suggests that there are two distinct types of rhetoric coming from republican governors. republicans from the northeast had the four highest realism scores. republicans from the south and west had the five lowest realism scores. table 1 realism scores, 1998 speeches state governor, party realism score new york pataki, r 53.6 rhode island almond, r 53.5 new jersey whitman, r 53.1 pennsylvania ridge, r 52.7 new hampshire shaheen, d 52.5 massachusetts cellucci,r 52.4 florida chiles, d 52.2 south carolina beasley, r 52.0 minnesota carlson, r 52.0 washington lowry, d 51.8 colorado roemer, d 51.6 new mexico johnson, r 51.6 vermont dean, d 51.5 wiscunsiil tholllpsoll, r 51.5 west virgnina underwood, r 51.5 mississippi fordice, r 51.5 georgia miller, d 51.5 missouri carnahan, d 51.5 46 table 1continued state governor, party realism score oregon kitzhaber, d 51.5 utah leavitt, r 51.4 indiana o'bannon, d 51.4 virginia gilmore, r 51.3 south dakota janklow, r 51.3 kentucky patton,d 51.2 connecticut rowland, r 51.2 maine king, i 51.1 iowa branstad, r 51.0 delaware carper, d 50.7 hawaii cayetano, d 50.6 illinois edgar, r 50.5 michigan engler, r 50.1 tennessee sundquist, r 49.9 oklahoma keating, r 49.7 california wilson,r 49.7 north dakota schafer, r 49.6 alaska knowles, d 49.5 ohio voinovich, r 49.5 maryland glendening, d 49.4 kansas graves, r 48.5 arizona hull, r 48.5 wyoming geringer, r 47.7 idaho batt,r 47.7 alabama james, r 47.5 table 2 presents the realism scores for the speeches in the 1991 data set. except for governor symington, republican of arizona, the five most realistic as well as the four least realistic governors were demo­ crats. there was no clear regional pattern. 47 table 2 realism scores, 1991 speeches state governor, party realism score arizona symington, r 54.4 washington gardner, d 5j.7 arkansas clinton, d 53.6 kentucky wilkinson, d 53.0 west virginia caperton, d 52.9 new york cuomo, d 52.7 alaska hickel, i 52.2 oregon roberts, d 51.6 maryland schaefer, d 51.1 pennsylvania casey, d 51.0 mississippi mabus, d 51.0 texas richards, d 51.0 new mexico king, d 50.9 lennessee mcwherter, lj 5u.~ south carolina campbell, r 50.5 rhode island sundlum, d 50.4 oklahoma walters, d 50.3 connecticut weicker, i 50.1 maine mckernan, r 50.0 south dakota mickelson, r 50.0 hawaii waihee, d 49.9 delaware castle, r 49.8 alahtjma hunt, r 49.6 utah bangerter, r 49.5 indiana bayh,d 49.3 new hampshire gregg, r 49.2 kansas finney, d 49.2 north carolina martin, r 48.8 missouri ashcroft, r 48.7 virginia wilder, d 48.0 vermont dean, d 47.5 north dakota sinner, d 47.4 wyoming sullivan, d 47.3 48 table 3 presents the estimate of ols regression equations for the 1991 and 1998 data sets. the negative findings are worth noting. realism is not systematically related to political party, economic growth, per capita income, public extremism, or the interaction of gubernatorial political inexperience and divided government. contrary to expectations, gover­ nors of states with individualistic political cultures used rhetoric that had consistently (although not always significantly) less realism than that of governors of moralistic and traditionalistic states. table 3 predicting realism in 1991 and 1998 state-of-the-state speeches from situational variables (beta weights) variable 1991 change in total state personal income, previous year .107 democratic governor -.103 per capita income, previous year -.319 traditionalistic political culture .635** moralistic political culture .127 public's liberalism .853** public's extremism .228 governors without political inexperience, divided government .053 w, adj r2 f; df; p .482, .294 2.56; 8, 22; .038 p < .10, ** p < .05, *** p < .001 1998 -.122 .220 .231 .168 .087 .419* .124 .271 .337, .171 2.03; 8, 32; .074 only one explanatory variable had a large and statistically significant effect in both data sets: public liberalism. the more liberal the public of a governor's state is, the more realistic the governor's rhetoric is. unlike traditionalistic political culture, which had a statistically significant ef­ feet in 1991 but not in 1998, the effect of public liberdlism held (or lwo entirely different sets of governors. there are several possible explanations for this finding. it could be that governors of liberal states are more interested in mobilizing voters 49 with low levels of education than are governors of conservative states. on the other hand, it could be that the public's conservatism is the active influence. perhaps conservative public attitudes influence gubernato­ rial rhetoric by making it less concerned with "tangible, immediate, ev­ eryday matters that affect people's everyday lives." the public in con­ servative states could be holding out against what francis fukuyama (1992) calls "the end of history," which replaces the complex, abstract political discourse of ideological struggles with the practical political discourse of tax cuts, jobs, and day care. another possibility is that con­ servative governors of conservative states are discussing policy issues at a fairly technical level in the public setting of a state-of-the-state speech in order to wrest control of pohcymaking away from specialists who com­ prise state agencies. conservative governors may perceive these indi­ viduals to be generally opposed to their agendas. a more detailed assessment of the messages conveyed when guber­ natorial realism is high along with a deeper probing of the content of conservative attitudes and the paths through which they influence elite rheturil: wuuld help u~ tu wlden,taml the links at work between rheturi­ cal situations and the rhetorical/ political strategies that governors adopt in response to them. references beyle, thad l. 1992. governors and hard times. washington, d.c.: cq press. bitzer, lloyd f. 1968. "the rhetorical situation." philosophy and rhetoric i, no. 1 uanuary): 1-14. dileo, daniel. 1997. "dynamic representation in the american states: effects of public mood on governors' agendas." state and local government review 29, no. 2 (spring): 98-109. elazar, daniel j. 1994. the american mosaic: the impact afspace, time, and culture on american politics. boulder, co: westview. erikson, robert s., gerald c. wright, and john p. mclver. 1993. statehouse de­ mocracy: public opinion and policy in the american states. new york: cam­ bridge. ferguson, margaret r. 1996. "gubernatorial leadership in the fifty states." paper presented at the annual meeting of the american political science associa­ tion, san francisco, august 29, 1996. fukuyama, francis. 1992. the end of history and the last man. new york: avon. gosling, james j. 1991. "patterns of stability and change in gubernatorial policy agendas." state and local government review. 23, no. 1 (spring): 3-12. hart roderick p. 1997. diction 4.0: a text analysis program. thousand oaks, ca: scolari. hart, roderick p. 1971. lithe rhetoric of the tru.e believer." communication monographs 38: 249-26l. u.s. department of commerce. 1991. statistical abstract of the united states: the national data book. washington, d.c.: u.s. department of commerce. 50 u.s. department of commerce. 1992. statistical abstract of the united states: the national data book. washington, d.c.: u.s. department of commerce. u.s. department of commerce. 1998. statistical abstract of the united states: the national data book. washington, d.c.: u.s. department of commerce. van assendelft, laura. 1997. governors, agenda setting, and divided government. lanham, md: university press of america. appendix computation of realism scores by diction the following is a summary of the explanation provided in the user's manual for diction, entitled diction 4.0: the text analysis program by roderick p. hart, 1997. the full explanation appears on pages 49-50. realism is defined as the used of words indicating concern with tangible, immediate, recognizable matters that affect the everyday lives of most people. the score is calculated by summing z-scores of frequencies of words belonging to six different lists of words, or dictionaries, then subtracting the normalized frequency of words belonging to an eighth dictionary and subtracting a normal­ ized statistic based on the average length of the words in a text segment. the scores that diction sums up in calculating realism belong to the following six dictionaries: 1. familiarity: a list of very common words, including prepositions such as in 2. spatial awareness: words referring to location, specific places, types of places, distances. some examples are abroad, over, ceylon, county, east, latttude, map, kilometer, migrated. 3. temporal awareness: words that can place an event in time or related to the significance of time in some way, such as century, mid-morning, postpone. 4. present concern: composed from a list of present-tense verbs that relate to physical activity (cough, taste), social operations (touch, govern), and task per­ formance (make, cook). 5. human interest: includes personal pronouns, family members, generic terms for people, such as friend, baby. 6. concreteness; a very large dictionary, referring to tangible ubjel:t::; ur per­ sons, such as peasants, african-americans, carpenter, congressman, courthouse, store, television, wages, bicycle, eyes, insects, grain, oil, silk. diction then subtracts a number that is a function of the average number of letters in the words in the text segment and a number based on the frequency of words belonging to a dictionary called "past concern." this dictionary consists of the past tense forms of the verbs belonging to the present concern dictionary. diction places this composite of z-scores for each text segment on scale with a mean of 50 and a specified standard deviation that it computes from the realism scores of over 20,000 text segments from "political speeches, press conferences, patriotic ceremonies, diplomatic engagement1;," iimi uthl:!i public affdir::; lexls (hart 1997, 23). 51 1999 commonwealth.max 1999 commonwealth.max pennsylvania women's campaign communication: a content analysis of brochures from 1996 state assembly races1 stephanie greco larson dickinson college this paper examines campaign communication of women who ran for the pennsylvania state assembly in 1996. the statements made in their campaign brochures were content analyzed to see if messages in litis medium were 13imilur to those identified in the literature about female candidates' television advertis­ ing. specifically the issues, traits, and attacks mentioned in the brochures were examined. differences between incumbents and challengers, winners and los­ ers, and democrats, republicans, and independents were also examined. as elections have become mor~ candidate-centered, campaign adver­ tising has grown in importance. the messages in advertisements have become highly scrutinized by politicul scientists, journalists, and con­ sultants. specifically, attention to the similarities and differences between how female and male candidates promote themselves has contributed to addressing the question of why there continues to be a relatively small number of women in elected office. attention to women's political advertising hus focused primurily on the television advertisements of those running for congress and gover­ nor (debelko & herrnson, 1997; johnston & white, 1994; kahn, 1993; kalm, 1994; proctor et al, 1994). however, the most impressive gains made by women in politics have been at the lower levels of governmenti female membership in state legislatures tripled from 1974 to 1994 (rule, 1996). since the lack of women "in the pipeline" is a key explanation for women's underrepresentation (duerst-lahti, 1998), it is important to examine advertising in campaigns for an important political entry point the state legislature (ford & dolan, 1996). focusing on state legislative races requires examining forms of politi­ cal advertising appropriate to this level of campaign. theodore sheckels (1994, 324) reminds political communication scholars not to be "mes­ menzed by television, especially when dealing with non-national cam­ paigns." however, despite brochures being a common campaign como munkanon dpv1cf> in 10('al races (grey, 1994), they have generally gone ignored. only paul raymond (1987) has systematically examined bro­ chures, and his analysis does not consider the candidates' gender. there­ fore, there is much to be learned about the messages in female candi­ dates' political brochures. 56 1999 commonwealth.max there are reasons to suspect that women's communication for lower level offices might differ from their advertisements for higher offices. leonard williams (1998) warns scholars not to assume that women's advertising will be the same regardless of the office sought. after all, voters' willingness to support female candidates varies by office (dolan, 1997) and their expectations for candidates differ by government posi­ tion (huddy & terkildsen, 1993). in an effort to give the voters what they want, women seeking higher offices might emphasize different issues and qualifications than those running for lower level offices. to discuss differences between the content of state-level brochures and that of tele­ vision advertising for national offices and governorships, we need to re­ view the findings of research on women's campaign communication. studies repeatedly reveal that women's television campaign adver­ tisements discuss issues more than candidate traits oohnston & white, 1994; kahn, 1994; kahn & goldenberg, 1991; kahn & gordon, 1997; raymond, 1987). they also discuss "female issues" more than other is­ sues (kahn, 1993; kahn & go:pdon, 1997; witt et al., 1994), although kahn (1994) shows gubernatorial candidates as an exception to this. "female issues" are those issues for wh.i.dl "wol1.1.en are seen as superior" (kahn, 1994,166) and are operationally defined as education, environment, health care, family issues, and social welfare. attacks on opponents are infrequent in women's television campaign advertising oohnston & white, 1994; kahn & gordon, 1997) perhaps due to the reluctance to appear "unladylike" (witt et al., 1994). however, leonard williams (1994) found that about one-third of the female senato­ rial candidates whose ads he studied attacked their opponents. when women do explicitly critique their opponents, the focus is more likely to be on issues rather than candidate qualifications or traits (benze & declercq, 1985b; johnston & white, 1994; kahn, 1993; kalul. & gordon, 1997). in terms of the character traits that women candidates promote, the literature is mixed. early research of women campaigning for the house, senate, and statewide offices indicates that women conform to feminine traits stereotypically by promoting warmth and compassion more than toughness (benze & declercq, 1985a). williams (1994, 1998) confirmed that female senate candidates stressed feminine traits (especially empa­ thy) more than other h'aits. however, the extensive work of kim fridkin kahn (1993; 1994; kahn & gordon, 1997) clearly points in the other direc­ tion. this work illustrates that women seeking seats in the u.s. senate and governorships spend more time challenging feminine stereotypes than reinforcing them. they emphasize traits like leadership and experi: ence rather than honesty, compassion, warmth, trustworthiness, and empathy. the level of office could make a difference since "typical femi­ nine traits are considered more suitable for lower or non-elective levels 57 1999 commonwealth.max of office" (huddy & terkildsen, 1993,504). this article examines whether these characteristics found in televi­ sion advertising of women running for high-level offices, such as gover­ nor and senator, were also found in brochure advertising of women seek­ ing state-level congressional seats. it does so by examining brochures used by women running for the pennsylvania state assembly in 1996. pennsylvania is an interesting, but not necessarily representative, place to start exploring this question since it has a reputation for being "inhos­ pitable toward women candidates" (witt et a1., 1994,5) despite the num­ ber of women in the pennsylvania state assembly doubling (to 12%) in the past two decades (rule, 1996). if the finding~ from the research on women candidates' television advertising hold true for brochures at the state assembly level, then the brochures should: 1) contain more issue appeals than candidate traits; 2) emphasize certain issues (those identified as "female issues") over nthp! issne's; 3) infrequently attack opponents; 4) emphasize feminine candidate traits more than masculine traits. data and coding letters asking for copies of campaign brochures were sent to 55 can­ didates running for representative in the general assembly of pennsyl­ vania in 1996 who had female names.2 a follow-up letter was sent to those who did not send brochures. of the 55 candidates contacted, 29 (53%) responded to the letter, with 21 (38%) sending brochures. the other eight indicated that they had not used brochures.3 of the 21 who sent brochures: eleven won their elections, ten lost them; 12 were democrats, six were republicans, and three were independents; eleven were chal­ lengers and ten were incumbents! of those who senl brochures, all of table 1 relationship between party and election outcome party loser winner democrat 50% 50% (6) (6) republican 17% 83% (1) (5) independent 100% 0% (3) (0) note: cell sizes are too small for reliable statistical calculations. 58 1999 commonwealth.max the incumbents won their elections and only one challenger, a demo­ crat, won hers.s table 1 illustrates the relationship between party and election outcome. although brochures varied in length, style, professionalism, and breadth, they were standard introductory brochures, which focused on general appeals introducing the candidate to the general voters, rather than targeting messages for specific audiences, like partisans or the eld­ erly. the brochures seemed designed in part to increase name recognition since even the shortest brochures mentioned the candidates! name more than once. the minimum number of times the candidates! name appeared was three and the maximum was 18 with t1;te average being eight. one way that the brochures varied was in their use of photographs. one candidate did not use any photographs and another used 14. the average number of pictures used on a brochure was 2.3 and the mode was 1 (10 brochures had one picture). the most common use of photog­ idphy was to include a sin.gle photo of the candidate (typically a formal face shot). incumbents incfuded photographs of themselves with chil­ dren and senior citizens who were not members of their own families, whereas no challengers did. six candidates included photographs of their family; but for only one candidate was this her sole photograph. thirteen of the candidates included some reference to themselves as a wife, a mother, and/ or a daughter. of these 13, ten emphasized this ref­ erence by either including a photograph of her family, making the refer­ ence in bold type or in color, or putting it at the top of her list of qualifi­ cations. the references to being a wife or mother were often explicitly linked to governing skills. por example, one candidate claimed in her list of "reasons to vote for __ if that "her husband was confined in a wheel­ chair for eight years, she understands the needs of the disabled." more democrats than republicans included references to their families. in­ cumbents and challengers were equally likely to do so. the analysis that follows uses a content analysis of the brochures treat­ ing statements, sometimes referred to here as references or claims, as the unit of analysis. statements were all sentences or sentence fragments that appeared on the brochure. all statements were coded by the author for "topic:" issues, candidate traits (characteristics of the candidate, such as honesty or strength), opponent attacks (any criticisms of the opponent whether by name or not),6 group references (such as the candidate's identi­ fication with a party or interest group ), candidate qualifications (credentials of the candidate, such as public service or motherhood), and other (a re­ sidual category for statements of the "vote for candidate __ if nature); in addition, all issue references were coded for the specific subject discussed and recoded into "female issues," "male issues," and "other" using the definition of these which is common in the literature.7 all refer59 1999 commonwealth.max ences to candidate traits were coded for the specific lrail menlioneu. tilese traits were recoded into" feminine traits," "masculine traits," and" other" generally using williams' (1994) coding scheme. the background char­ acteristics of the candidate whose brochures contained these statements were also coded. these characteristics were: party (democrat, republi­ can, or independent), election outcome (won oi lo::;l), anu cduuiudte ::;ta­ tub (incumbent or challenger). findings the 21 brochures yielded 625 statements. the number for individual candidates varied greatly hom six to 68. the average number uf stdte­ ments in a brochure was 12. the overall distribution of appeals is shown in the total column of table 2. clearly this medium allows ample room for candidates to offer multiple messages. similar to television advertising of other female candidates, there were more references to issues than other types of appeals. issue claims (234) made up 37% of all statements. qualifications were the second most fretable 2 type of appeal by incumbency status type challenger incumbent total issues 29% 42% 234 (85) (142) qualification 17% 21% 208 (85) (69) traits 16% 23% 124 (85) (78) attack 2% 0% 7 (85) groups 4% 10% 15 (85) (32) other 1% 1% 7 (85) (4) total 293 332 625 chi square 66.8; cramer's v = .32; significant at .001 level whpn t],,, sm"l1 ('p11", "re eliminated by omitting 1/ attack" and "other:" chi square 54.3; cramer's v "" .30; significant at .001 level 60 1999 commonwealth.max quent type of reference with 208 (33% of the totnl). there were 124 refer­ ences to character traits (20% of the total) and 45 group references (7% of the total). also similar to television advertising was the lack of attacks on opponents. these were very rare (only seven, or 1 %). the average num­ ber of appeals per candidate was: 11.1 for issues, 9.9 for qualifications, 5.9 [or traits, 2.1 for groups, and .3 for attacks. table 2 also demonstrates the mix of statement types used by chal­ lengers and incumbents. these two groups differed significantly in the types of appeals they used. incumbents were more likely to use issue appeals, character traits, and group appeals than challengers were. chal­ ltmgel's were more likely to discuss their qualjfications and to attack their opponents than incumbents were. this could be because challengers lack the legitimacy that is inherent in the incumbency status of their oppo­ nents and therefore need to explicitly assert it. since incumbency and winning strongly co-varied (with one exception, a democratic challenger / table 3 type of appeal by party type democrat republican independent total i~~u!:!t> 29% 53% 45% 234 (los) (96) (30) qualification 40% 15% 43% 208 (152) (27) (29) trails 19% 27% 8% 124 (70) (49) (5) attack 2% 0% 0% 7 (7) groups 9% 5% 5% 45 (33) (9) (3) olher 2% 0% 0% 7 (7) tolal 377 181 67 625 chi square 7s.2; cramer's v = .25; significant at .001 level 'wll!:!ll lhe small cells are eliminated by omitting" attack" and "other:" chi square 5s.9; cramer's v = .22; significant at .001 level when the small cells are eliminated by omitting" attack/' "other/' and independent:" chi square 50.1; cramer's v = .30; significant at .001 level 61 1999 commonwealth.max who won), the observed differences between incumbents a.1lj challellg­ ers were also true when winners were compared to losers.8 republicans were more likely to make references to issues and character traits, while democrats were more likely to discuss their qualifications, attack oppo­ nents, and make group references (see table 3). issues-table 4 illustrates the distribution uf l~::me put:;itiont; taken in the brochures.9 the most frequent was education with 38 mentions (18% of the total number of issue references). the second most frequent was taxes (29 mentions, 14%), then health care (19 mentions, 9%), and crime (18 mentions, 9%). these specific issues were grouped according to whether or not they fit the definition of "felmtle ,it;t;ues" broadly defined in the literature as issues that have a nurturing aspect to them (including health care, education, welfare, children, environment, etc.) or "male is­ sues" (including jobs, economy, taxes, agriculture, crime, and foreign aftable 4 i type of issue statements number "female" issues education 38 health care 19 welfare 16 environment 8 children's issues 6 women's rights 3 other ii total 95 "male" issues taxes 29 crime 18 jobs 12 economics 11 transportation 8 farming 4 other ,2 total 87 othel' government organization 20 worker compo / min. wage 8 other 1 total 29 62 percentage 18% 9% 8% 4% 3% 1% 2% 45% 14% 9% 6% 5% 4% 2% 2% 42% 10% 4% 1% 15% 1999 commonwealth.max fairs). there were slightly more references to "female issues" (95 or 45% ) than "male" (87 or 42%). although the difference between the two was not large (48% "male" compared to 52% "female" when "other issues" were omitted), it is in the direction identified by the television advertis­ ing literature (kahn, 1993; kahn & gordon, 1997). there were no significant differences in terms of the types of issues used ("women's" or "men's") when challengers were compared to incum­ bents, winners were compared to losers, and democrats, republicans, and independents were compared to each other.'° the only significant differ­ ence appears between democratic winners and losers. democratic win­ ners were more likely to discuss "female issues" than "male issues" (see table 5). this finding might demonstrate the benefit that democratic women have of playing to an agenda both in keeping with their gender stereotypes and, to some extent, assumptions about their party. opponent critiques-the infrequency of opponent critiques (7, only 1 % of all references) conform to the literature, which indicates that women / table 5 relationship between election income and type of issues discussed among democrats type of issue "female" "male" cramer's v=.22 significant at .05 level election outcome loser winner 39% (14) 61% (22) 61% (30) 39% (19) do not frequently attack gohnston & white, 1994; kahn & gordon, 1997). even when the brochures, rather than claims within them, were used as the unit of analysis, the frequency of attacks (present in ::i out of 21 bro­ chures or one-seventh) falls short of williams' (1994, 1998) one-third. all of the attacks coded here were made by democratic challengers who lost. two of these candidates did not name their opponents. one of these two simply implied that there was something wrong with the in­ cumbent by saying that people should vote for someone who is "caring ... for a change." the other noted that she was the" only candidate in~the __ district with a deep business background." a third candidate re­ printed a local newspaper article in her brochure, which contained five attacks on her opponent. on the surface, using a newspaper article to 63 1999 commonwealth.max introduce opponent criticism is in keeping with advice that candidates can avoid backlash by having others launch attacks. a closer look at this brochure indicates that the advice was not taken since the article repro­ duced includes comments made by the candidate criticizing her oppo­ nent (for policy positions and his support for his own pay raise). over­ alt the minimal number of references to opponents was predictable given the television advertising research, but the nature of the criticisms were not since they went beyond issue critiques. the small number of candi­ dates who made these critiques and the unsuccessfulness of their cam­ paigns should curtail any sweeping interpretation of what this says about office-level differences in negative campaigning. traits-character traits were coded into 14 different categories. ll the most common of these categories was "hardworking," which included 27 references (22%). the second most frequent category was "caring" (20, 16%). when incumbents and challengers were compared, differences of five percent or greater existed for four traits. a larger percentage of chal­ lengers' claims were about their strength (11 % vs. 4% for incumbents) and expertise (11 % vs. 6% for incumbents), while incumbents more frequently mentioned their activeness (9% vs. 4% for challengers) and caring (19% vs. 11% for challengers). the gap for mentioning caring was even larger for winners and losers (20% of winners' traits fell into the "caring" cat­ egory compared to 10% for losers). no losers included claims of indepen­ dence whereas 6% of the winners' traits claimed fell in this category. when the traits promoted by candidates of different parties were com­ pared, independents differed from members of the major parties. only three of the 14 traits were claimed by independents: expertise (60%), honesty (20%), and hard work (20%). independents discussed their ex­ pertise much more than others since these claims made up only 6% of those offered by democrats and republicans. republicans and demo­ crats differed by more than 5% in the following categories: leadership (with democrats mentioning this more often, 17% to 8%), activity (with republicans mentioning this more often, 14% to 3%), caring (comprising 20% for republicans and only 14% for democrats), and hard work (with democrats claiming this quality in 29% of their traits mentioned com­ pared to 12% for republicans). to some extent these messages seem to be contradicting negative pa.rty stereotypes (such as republicans being uncaring). traits were recoded into categories used by williams (1994) in his study of female senate candidates' television advertising. these categories in­ cluded: compassion, empathy, integrity, activity, strength, knowledge, and a residual group. williams argued that compassion and empathy were the feminine traits; strength, activity, and knowledge were the mas­ culine ones; and integrity was neither. since all of the traits categorized 64 1999 commonwealth.max table 6 type of trait appeal number percentage "feminine traits" compassion 20 16% includes: caring empalhy 6 5% iudwl~~; l:uup~ri:ttl ve, open to learn, outsider integrity 12 10% includes: honesty 38 31% "masculine traits" activity 40 32% / includes: hard work, effectiveness, excitement strength 29 23% includes: independent, strong, leader knowledge 10 8% includes: expertness 79 / 63% "other" other 7 6% includes: thritty, hopeful, proud here as integrity were about honesty, a characteristic identified by kahn (1993; 1994) as fitting feminine candidate stereotypes, it will be coded as such here. table 6 demonstrates the prevalence of each type of trait. even counting the integrity category as feminine, masculine traits appeared more than twice as often as feminine traits (64% mmparf'd to::l1 %). thf'sf' results contrast sharply with williams' results that showed 62% of the traits claimed by women senators in their television advertisements were feminine compared to 27% that were masculine. these findings are much more consistent with the findings of kahn (1994, 108) which were that 81 % of the traits claimed by gubernatorial candidates and 78% of those claimed by senate candidates were masculine.12 the results fail to con­ firm the expectation that women competing for lower level offices would be more likely to emphasize feminine traits and instead reinforce the idea that women advertise against type in order to conform to masculine stereotypes of leadership. this conformity appears "acroflfl-the-board," as there were no significant differences in the frequency of claiming "fe­ male" versus "male" traits when candidates from different parties, with different election outcomes, and different status incumbents or chal­ lengers were comparedy conclusions campaign brochures of women running for the pennsylvania state 65 1999 commonwealth.max assembly in 1996 conveyed messages that in many ways were similar to those found in television campaign advertising for higher offices. they promoted issues more than other appeals, rarely critiqued their oppo­ nents, and focused slightly more on "female issues." i iowever, illore traits claimed were masculine lending support to kahn's work (1993; 1994) rather than the work of others (benze & declercq, 1985a; williams, 1994). the great range of appeals used in the brochures demonstrates how this form of campaign communication gives candidates an opportunity to take positions on many issues and dern.onslrate both masculine and feminine traits. candidates do not seem to treat campaigning through brochures as a zero-sum game, thus forcing them to choose between ap­ peals. in this way, brochures are a very different form of communication than television ads, which are much more expensive and brief. the scar­ city of television ad time provides less flexibility for making multiple appeals. in these brochures, rather than choose between appeals (femi­ nine or masculine, this kind of issue or that kind, issues or not), candi­ dates make variety of claims. nevedheless, for the most part the empha­ sis in women's ads follows that of television advertising: emphasis on issues, few opponent attacks, and more masculine traits than feminine. notes 1. the author would like to thank martha bailey, kathy dolan, james hoefler, stephanie slocum-shaffer, and the reviewers for their sugges­ tions. she would also like to express appreciation to vickie kuhn for her invaluable help acquiring the brochures and to the women candidates who provided them. an earlier version of this article was presented at the southwestern political science association meeting in march 1998. 2. the names and addresses were obtained from the "official results for the 1996 geneml dlection" issued by the perms y 1 v anla bureau of com­ missions, elections, and legislation. only individuals with clearly iden­ tifiable female names were sent letters. those with androgynous names (such as pat, chris, and tracy) were not contacted, even though women were among this group. 3. it is likely that some of the woinen who did nol reply uiu nut issue brochures due to a lack of resources or a lack of competition. therefore, it would be inappropriate to consider the response rate 38%. 4. of the 55 candidates with female names who were running, 25 won. thirty were democrats, 21 were republicans, and foul' were independents; therefore, republican candidates were underrepreseuleu in the :;ample. 5. this means that 100% of the references made by "losers" were made by challengers and 92% of the comments made by "winners" were made by incumbents. 66 1999 commonwealth.max 6. these included references for voters to "make a change." 7. it is important to note that the theoretical justification for this di­ chotomy is underdeveloped despite its frequent usage. in fact, the con­ tinued assumption that traits and issues are gendered might reinforce unfounded stereotypes. this article does not address or rectify this po­ tential problcm since thc focus on comparing state assembly brochures to the literature on television advertising necessitates use of the same concepts and definitions. 8. the relationship between appeal types and winner / loser is chi square 53.3; cramer's v= .29; significant at .001 level. when "attack" and "other" were omitted, the relationship ~s chi square 41; cramer's v = .26; significant at .001 level. 9. of the 234 issue statements, 23 could not be coded because they were too vague. 10. even when the "neither" category was excluded from the analy­ sis, these differences remained insignificant. when democrats and re publicans were compared artd independents were excluded, there was still no significant difference. 11. these were: independent, strong (or aggressive, fighter, tough, courageous, assertive), leader (or experienced, proven, respected), knowl­ edgeable (or intelligent, expert, know how, informed, thoughtful, well traveled), active (or involved, outspoken, tireless, feisty, energetic), car­ ing (or empathetic, listens, concerned, accessible, works for you, respon­ sive, or can be counted on), outsider / new, honest (or trustworthy, reli­ able, keeps promises, integrity, principled, ethical, or responsible), coop­ erative/coalition builder, learns (or open-minded, nonidcological), ex­ cited (or eager, spirited, enthusiastic), effective / gets results, hardworking (or industrious, committed, studies), and other (hopeful, thrifty, orga­ nized, proud, or ready). 12. we need to recognize that kahn did not have a neutral category. when references coded as "other" are omitted from the brochures calcu­ lation, 68% of the traits claimed were "masculine." 13. nor were there significant differences when "other" traits were ex­ cluded from the analysis and when independent candidates were omitted. 14. nor were there significant differences when "other" traits were ex­ cluded from the analysis and when independent candidates were omitted. bibliography benze, james g. & declercq, eugene r. 1985a. "content of television political spot ads for female candidates." journalism quarterly. 62:278-83, 28ft benze, james g. and eugene r. declercq 1985b. "the importance of gender in congressional and statewide elections." social science quarterly. 66:954-63. 67 1999 commonwealth.max debelko, kristen l. and paul s. hermson, 1997. "women's and men's mmpnigns for the u.s. house of representatives." political research quarterly. 50:121-135. dolan, kathleen 1997. "gender differences in support for women candidates: is lhere a glass cdling in american politics?" women & politics. 17:27-41. duerst-lahti, georgia 1998. "the bottleneck: women becoming candidates." in sue thomas and clyde wilcox, eds., women and elective office: past, present, and future. ny:oxford university press. ford, lyrme and kathleen dolan. 1996. "contemporary women state legislators: a diverse group with diverse agendas." in lois lovelace duke, ed. women in politics: outsiders or insiders? 2nd edition. ny: prentice hall. grey; lawrence 1994. how to win a local election: a complete step by step guide. ny: m. evans and co., inc. , huddy; leonie and nayda terkildsen. 1993. "the consequences of gender ste­ reotypes for women candidates at different levels and types of office." politi­ cal research quarterly. 46:503-525. johnston, ann and anne barton white. 1994. "communication styles and fe­ male candidates: a study of the political advertising during the 1986 senate elections." journalism \..2uarterly. 7}:321-329. kahn, kim fridkin. 1994. "the distorted mirror: press coverage of women candi­ dates for statewide office." journal of politics. 56:154-73. kahn, kim fridkin. 1993. "gender differences in campaign messages: the politi­ cal advertisements of men and women candidates for u.s. senate." political research quarterly. 46:4rl-.'i02. kahn, kim fridkin and edie goldenberg. 1991. "women candidates in the news: an examination of gender differences in u.s. senate campaign coverage." public opinion quarterly. 55:180~199. kahn, kim fridkin and ann gordon. 1997. "how women campaign for the u.s. senate: substance and strategy."in pippa norris, ed., women, media, and poli­ tics. oxford: oxford university press. proctor, david e., william j. schench-hanlin, and karen a. haase. 1994. "ex_ ploring the role of gender in the development of negative political advertis­ ing." women & politics, 14:1-22. raymond, paul b. 1987. "shaping the news: an analysis of house candidates' campaign communication." in jan pons vermeer,ed., campaigns in the news: mass media and congressional elections. westport, ct: greenwood press. rule, wilma. 1996. "why are more women state legislators?" in lois lovelace duke, ed. women in politics: outsiders or insiders? 2nd edition. ny: prentice hall. sheekels, theodore f. 1994. "mikulski vs. chavez for the senate from maryland in 1986 and the 'rules' for attack politics." comrnunicutiun quurterly, 42:311-326. williams, lawrence 1998. "gender, political advertising, and the air wars." in sue thomas & clyde wilcox, eds. women and elective office: past, present, and ftl.ture. ny: oxford university press. williams, leonard. 1994. "political advertising in the year of the woman: did x mark the spot?" in elizabetha. cook, sue thomas, & clyde wilcox, eds. the year of the woman: myths and realities. boulder, co: westview press. witt, linda, karen m.paget, and glerma matthews. 1994. running as a woman: gender and power in american politics. ny: the free press. 68 1999 commonwealth.max 1999 commonwealth.max in the commonwealth thomas j. baldino, editor all good things come to he who waits, some wise person once said. it seems that the subscribers of commonwealth should adopt this aphorism. some 14 months since its last publication, the latest edition of com1vi.onwealth took a rather tortuous path to print. initially, there was a dearth of quality manuscripts submitted for publication after the last volume appeared. in the spring, i received the resignation of my valued managing editor, jim morse. (1 want to express publicly my sincere thanks and appreciation to jim for his dedication and excellent work on behalf of the journal over many years. without his patience and stamina, a few issues of com1vi.onwealth might not have ever seen the light of day.) after some searching and pleading, i convinced a colleague at wilkes, harold cox, editor of the wilkes university press, to assume the managing editor position, and things (ooked bright again. but then came a series of computer viruses and crashes that further complicated matters. with some luck and the cooperation of my family, lost material was reconstructed over several weeks, and an absent husband and father reemerged with a journal. i can only hope that you find the product worth the wail. in this issue, we are fortunate to present three articles that focus directly on pennsylvania government and politics, which may be something of a record for the journal. the two other articles provide a kind of bookends to american politics of the last two hundred plus years, in the lead article, dr. james yoho examines the role of interest groups in pre and post revolutionary america. his study reveals the importance of interest groups to the revolutionary movement as well as their critical involvement in the ratification of the constitution of 1787. he ultimately concludes that interest groups would have developed in the new nation but perhaps not as quickly had there not been a revolution and push for a new constitution to replace the articles. from the past to the present, and perhaps the future, the reader is invited by dr, gerard fitzpatrick to consider the application of the first amendment to material published in cyberspace, a.k.a. the web. is it possible to take the first amendment and the supreme court's case law, developed over two hundred years, and use these to settle disputes involving press freedom, particularly material deemed by some to be obscene? his view is that cyberpublications require a different legal framework, especially for "cybersmut." the first article in the section on pennsylvania research is by dr. stephanie greco larson. her work is a empirical analysis of the campaign 1999 commonwealth.max literature employed by men and women running for the pennsylvania general assembly in 1996 to determine if differences exist between the sexes. using a content analysis of campaign brochures, dr. larson explored the issues raised by the caml.idates, the traits that they highlight, and the types of attacks employed by the men and the women. she also controlled for incumbency, party, and whether the candidate won or lost. her findings are most interesting. the second article by dr. paula a. duda is a case study of the application of a re!:'julatory mechanism called regulation negotiation. in this study; dr. duda was an observer as the pennsylvania department of environmental protection attempted to use this technique in enforcing the special protection water program. applying theory to the case study; dr. duda concludes her analysis with a number of recommendations for how to improve the rule making and rule implementation process using regulation negotiation. the last article is really an extended bibliographic essay dr. jospph marbach compiled this materialtto serve as a guide to students and teachers of pennsylvania government and politics. he includes all three branches of state government as well as local governments, the media, and interest groups, among other things. it is hoped that our readers will find this a most helpful source of information. finally; i take this opportunity to announce publicly my resignation as editor of commonwealth. having served the ppsa and the journal for over ten year;; and publishing four volumes (including this one) as editor-in-chief over the last five years, i felt that it was time to move on. i have thoroughly enjoyed this experience, and i have learllf~d a 8rpat deal. interacting with so many talented authors and reviewers is truly stimulating. i will miss it. but every journal needs new blood, fresh ideas, ahd perhaps a different perspective from time to time; by my assessment, this is the appropriate time for commonwealth to have its transfusion. after consulting with don tannenbaum, the founding father of the journal, and members of the executive council, the editorship was extended to gerard fitzpatrick, and he graciously accepted. i hope thal he ded ves at; much satisfaction from his work with the journal as i have. authors should send all future manuscripts to: dr. gerard fitzpatrick department of politics ursinus college collegeville, pa 19426 any manuscripts that have already been accepted for publication will be published in the next volume, and i will retain responsibility for any manuscripts submitted to me to ensure that they are properly reviewed. 1999 commonwealth.max 1999 commonwealth.max censorship of the internet: the first amendment lost in cyberspace gerard j. fitzpatrick ursinus college computer technology is changing faster than the laws governing it, raising the question of whether luwo formuluted tu address cunflicto urioing in the "real world" are applicable to conflicts in "cyberspace." this question is particularly relevant to the debate over sexually explicit material on the internet. this article argues that because the supreme court's current approach to the obscenity is not transferable to cyberspace, a different legal framework is necessary for deal­ ing with" cybersmut. " largely unheard of just a few years ago, the now popular terms "in­ ternet" and "cyberspace" refer to that" decentralized, globally networked, computer-sustained, computer-a'ccessed, and computer-generated mul­ tidimensional, artificial or 'virtual' reality in which 'netizens' anywhere on the planet can send and receive information almost instantly simply by 'uploading' and 'downloading' text, pictures, sounds, and video" (schlachter, 1993, 89). unlike traditional mode;; of communication, com­ puter networks provide speed, anonymity, ease of access, and the poten­ tial to reach an immense audience to any speaker, no matter how ob­ scure or controversial, on any topic imaginable, making the internet, in the words of one federal judge, "a unique and wholly new medium of worldwide human cummunicatiun" (americun civil libertieo uniun v. renu, 1996,844). in fact, americans now spend as much time "surfing the net" as they do watching rented videotapes (lewis, 1995, d5). it is no wonder that the american library association has called the internet "the most important thing that has happened to communications since the print­ ing press" (lewb, 1996, d2). clearly, we are witnessing a remarkable transformation in the com­ munication process, but where is the "information superhighway" tak­ ing us? some see the internet as promising a new dawn in human com­ munication and productivity (see gates, 1993). they emphasize not only the boundle;;;; capacity uf the internet fur the unbriuleu tran;;fer <lilu re­ ceipt of information, but also its distinctively interactive character, which allows ideas to grow and evolve. others fear that the internet is an overhyped threat to human values (see stoll, 1995). erik barnouw, a me­ dia historian skeptical of the euphoria surrounding the internet, warns that "the lesson uf hi;;tury i;; that every new meuiurn pruviues new op­ portunities for selling as well as for education, for monopolists as well as for democracy, and for abuse as well as for benefit" (lohr, 1996, el). more 29 1999 commonwealth.max information is not necessarily better information, and speedier commu­ nication does not necessarily advance a community's interests. indeed, because technological innovation affects who wins and who loses in the struggle for power, it can alter political relationships among individuals, groups, and the state, thereby changing the very meaning of community. traditionally, a "coill.1ul.ll1ity" has been underslood to be a discrele geographic site inhabited by a distinctive set of people sharing certain customs and values and working together more or less cooperatively for their mutual benefit. changes in telecommunications have brought about a new kind of association, the "cyber-community;" wherein like-minded people fron. scattered points around the globe come together and inter­ act with one another despite physical distance by using their computers to exchange information. although their members lack physical proxim­ ity, cyber-communities possess the primary attribute of a community: they are societies that people join in order to pursue common interests und enjoy mutually satisfying relationships. cybcrcommunitics arc pro liferating, but all communities ine~itably experience conflict, and man­ aging conflict requires law. at issue is whether laws formulated to ad­ dress conflicts arising in the "real world" are applicable to conflicts oc­ curring in the" cyberworld." can new wine be poured successfully into old bottles, or do changes in communication technology require signifi­ cant revision of traditional frameworks for analyzing issues concerning freedom of expression? these questions are particularly relevant to the current debate over sex on the internet. according to a widely selling book, computers are hp('oming ",moth!'t tool, anothpr avpnu!', anothpr for1lm for sex" (robinson and tamosaitis, 1993, xvii). one study found that because people can anonymously access "adult" internet sites from the privacy of home, often for free, "one of the largest (if not the largest) recreational applications of the users of computer networks [is] the distribution and consumption of sexually explicit imagery" (rimm, 1995, 1861). oppo­ nents of" cybel'smut"l believe that computerized erotica is abundant and can fall too easily into the hands of computer savvy children (time, 1995, 38). tiley cll!:lo fear lhcll "ull-line" <.:ollllllwlicalion iadlilales lhe illidl market in "child pornography;" for not only can pedophiles with com­ puters network with one another to exchange pictures, they can also sur­ reptitiously locate, converse with, and eventually prey upon unsuspect­ ing children.2 consequently; they pressured congress to enact the com­ munications decency act of 1996 (47 u.s.c.a. sec. 223, hereinafter "cda"), which prohibited using the internet either to transmit or to dis­ play "indecency" to minors. yet, content regulation and censorship are concepts derived from the traditional world of print and broadcast me­ dia. can they be transferred to an intangible and interactive dimension 30 1999 commonwealth.max like cyberspace, or must a different legal framework be developed to fit computer communication technology? although the supreme court invalidated the indecency provisions of the cda on first amendment grounds, it seemed to assume that tradi­ tional obscenity doctrine applies to cyber-communities in the same way that it applies to physical communities. this study argues to the con­ trary that the unique character of internet communication warrants an approach to obscenity in cyberspace different from that followed by the court for the past twenty-five years with regard to "regular space." part i reviews the nature of cybersmut and the provisions of the cda while part ii explains why the cda was found to be unconstitutional. part iii shows the problems of trying to apply the supreme court's current ob­ scenity framework to cyberspace. given those problems, part iv advo­ cates an expansion of the notion of "community" so as to include cyber­ communities as well as geographic communities. part v presents an alternative framework for judging the permissibility of cybersmut based upon the nature of cyber-communities. lastly, the conclusion offers some thoughts on the larger significance of this issue for freedom of expres­ sion in a democratic sociely. the study thus hopes to conlribute not just to our understanding of evolving constitutional law, but also to the lit­ erature on the theory of freedom of speech and press. i. cybersmut and the communications decency act despite the hype and hysteria surrounding the issue of cybersmut, less than 1% of material found on the internet is sexually explicit (new york times, 1995, a26), and it is dwarfed by the $8 billion americans spend annually on tangible forms of erotica (harmon, 1997a, a21). still, while the quantity of such material is often overstated, it is plentiful and readily available, extending from "the modestly titillating to the hardest-core" (american civil liberties union v. reno, 1996, 844). "graphic files" are the most common form of cybersmut because "scanners" make it easy to digi­ tize photographs into high-resolution computer images. sexually oriented jokes and stories are available in "forums" based upon topic. "hot chat r00111.5" where sexually explicit messages can be exchanged between par­ ticipants in "real time" are increasingly popular. one of the largest loca­ tions of cybersmut is "usenet," a network of more than 15,000 discussion forums known as "newsgroups" whose members daily post more than 100,000 images and messages that can be viewed, read, and responded to by other users. sexually graphic text and images, as well as sounds and videos, are also obtainable from private "bulletin board services" (or "bbssff), the commercial equivalent of u senet news groups whose services are available only to "members" who pay a subscription fee to the service's system operator (huelster, 1995, 872-873). finally, thousands of both free 31 1999 commonwealth.max and commercial adult sites exist on the world wide web. groups like the christian coalition, the family research council, and the national coalition for the protection of children and families began lobbying congress in 1995 to enact legislation against cybersmut. sena­ tor james exon (d, nb) embraced their cause, declaring that "the infor­ mation superhighway should not become a red light district" (conf\res­ sional record, february 1, 1995, s1953). even though senator exon had little knowledge of how the internet works, he became the chief sponsor of the cda, two sections of which ultimately were declared unconstitu­ tional. section 223a, the "indecent transmission" provision, made it a felony punishable by a fine of up to $250,000 and a prison term of up to two years to use any telecommunication device t6 transmit knowingly to anyone under eighteen years of age" any comment, request, sugges­ tion, proposal, image, or other communication, which is obscene or in­ decent." section 223d, the "patently offensive display" provision, ap­ plied the same punishment to the transmission or display of any com­ munication that "depicts or desqlibes, in terms patently offensive as measured by contemporary community standards, sexual or excretory activities or organs," regardless of whether the recipient inill<tted the communication. the act was directed at the creators and distributors of cybersmut, not at users or access providers. in order to protect innocent third parties, it shielded commercial on-line services from liability for sexually explicit postings by their customers, and it exempted compa­ nies that merely provide transmission services, navigational tools, or in­ termediate storage for customers moving material from one electronic location to another. critics of the cda like jerry berman of the center for democracy and technology thought the law was trying quixotically to "design a whole city to look like disney world" (andrews, 1995, d7). the ability of computer users to jump quickly between thousands of different inter­ net sites, critics said, has blurred the distinction between sending and receiving information. they noted too that unlike television and radio the internet is decentralized in that it has no main control point though which government could regulate content. because the internet can ac­ commodate millions of speakers and publishers, as television and radio cannot, governmental control would have to be directed at an inordinate number of constantly changing bbss, webpages, and vsenet sites. the· task of system operators trying to comply with the cda would also be immense. the law granted them a "good faith" defense if they took "reasonable, effective, and appropriate actions" to prevent access by mi­ nors to adult material, to enable customers to block out offensive mate­ rial, and to warn them about inadvertently downloading it (47 v.s.c.a. sec. 223e). critics wondered what this nebulous standard meant and 32 1999 commonwealth.max how much internet traffic system operators would have to examine in order to satisfy it. even if the sheer amount of information available on the internet did not render attempts to control it futile, they said, gov­ ernmental efforts to regulate cybersmut would stifle the growth of this new medium for legitimate purposes, thereby squandering its potential for enhancing the democratic process and separating the united states from a growing global information structure. critics noted too that the nature of the hlternet makes sexually ex­ plicit material difficult to track. cybersmut can be disguised through a process known as "encryption" or posted through "anonymous mail­ ers" that make it impossible to identify the sender. in any case, because the internet is global in scope no single nation can regulate it. much erotica is posted to the internet from foreign countries immune from american law, and it is as available as material posted domestically. purveyors of cybersmut based in the united states could circumvent the cda simply by establishing internet sites outside our borders and elec­ tronically replenish them with new material without ever leaving the country. explains john gilmore of the electronic frontier foundation, "the nct interprets censorship as damage control and routes around it" (lim, 1996, 319). combating cybersmut effectively would require an in­ ternational agreement (shackelford, 1992). as joel perry barlow of the electronic frontier foundation concluded, the cda was the product of "the completely clueless, trying to impose their will on a place they do not understand, using a means they do not possess" (levy; 1995, 47). despite these problems, congress passed the cda on february 1, 1996 by a vote of 414-16 in the house and 91-5 in the senate. seven days later, president clinton put aside qualms about the cda's constitutionality and signed it in an election year gesture to families concerned with pro­ tccting their children from cybersmut. ii. the communications decency act and the courts on the same day that the cda took effect, twenty organizations led by the american civil liberties union challenged it in federal court as a facial violation of the first amendment on the grounds that it was vague and overly broad.3 a week later, a federal judge issued a temporary re­ straining order against the cda, finding its "indecency" provision un­ constitutionally vague but upholding its "patently offensive display" sec­ tion. on june 11, 1996 a special three-judge court went further and de­ clared the cda's "i.ndecency" provision unconstitutionally overbroad under the first amendment and its "patently offensive" standard un­ constitutionally vague under the fifth amendment. in trying to protect children from cybersmut, the court stated, tl1e cda u sweeps more broadly than necessary and therefore chills the expression of adults" (american 33 1999 commonwealth.max civil liberties union v. reno, 1996, 854). applying" strict scrutiny;" the judges said the cda was not the least restrictive means available to fur­ ther the government's admittedly compelling interest in protecting chil­ dren from cybertlmut. indeed, they feared that the law could apply to legitimate works of serious value such as films, plays, books, and art deal­ ing with sexual themes. the judges also dismissed the cda's supposed protection of content providers who take "reasonable, effective, and ap­ propriate action" to restrict access to minors. there is no effective way to limit inlernel siles lo adults, they noted, since the ages of people on-line cannot readily be ascertained. requiring credit cards or adult access codes in order to enter a site would impose a "significant economic cost" on non-commercial sites because they would have td pay third parties to collect and verify the information. "tagging" indecent material would be so physically burdensome as to be cost prohibitive. hence, content providers could avoid liability only by /i constitutionally intolerable" self­ censorship (american civil liberties union v. reno, 1996, 882). although senator exon predictedlhat the three-judge court's invalida­ tion of the cd a was 1/ so radical and so sweeping in ignoring existing laws and previous court rulings that it will crumble under supreme court scru­ tiny" (exon, 1996, 97), the high court unanimously4 affirmed it in a land­ mark decision on june 26, 1997. the government had urged the justices to treat the internet like television and radio where regulations of speech aimed at protecting children from sexually inappropriate material have been upheld. as deputy solicitor general seth waxman put it, easy internet access threatens "to render irrelevant all prior efforts" to shield children from erotica, for with the mere click of a computer mouse any child can get "a free pass to every adult bookstore and video store" in cyberspace (greenhouse, 1997, ai). in his opinion for the court, justice stevens con­ ceded the "legitimacy and importance of the congressional goal of pro­ tecting children from harmful material/' but he emphasized that "the mere fact that a statutory regulation of speech was enacted for the important purpose of protecting children from exposure to sexually explicit material does not foreclose inquiry into its validity" (reno v. american civil liberties union, 1997, 2334 and 2347). that inquiry led him to hold that the cda "places an unacceptably heavy burden on protected speech" because it lacks the precision required by the first amendment when a statute regu­ lates the content of speech (reno v. american civil liberties union, 1997, 2350). "in order to deny minors access to potentially harmful speech," wrote justice stevens, the cda "effectively suppresses a large amount of speech that adults have a constitutional right to receive and to address to one another" (reno v. american civil liberties union, 1997(2346). the government based its appeal upon severnl supreme court deci sions involving children and indecency. the strongest of these, fcc v. 34 1999 commonwealth.max pacifica foundation (1978), had approved sanctions against a radio station that broadcast in the afternoon, when children were likely to be listening, a recording by the comedian george carlin entitled "filthy words" that repeatedly used several common vulgarities in referring to certain sexual organs and activities. ruling that while government may not ordinarily regulate expression based upon its content, it may regulate the "timc, place, and manner" in which expression occurs, the court found the ra­ dio program to be indecent and patently offensive since it was intrusive and easily accessible by children. it also said that the first amendment does not prohibit content regulation in the broadcasting realm where con­ stitutional protection is lower than it is for pr:int media and wherc gov ernment has a special interest in protecting children from indecency. jus­ tice stevens saw sharp differences between the fcc order and the cda. first, the fcc has long regulated a medium with historically limited first amendment protection, whereas the cd a would not be enforced by any governmental agency having comparable familiarity with the internet. second, the fcc had targeted conly a single broadcast that had departed dramatically from traditional program content, not banning it entirely but merely regulating the time during which it could be broadcast. not only was the cda vastly broader in scope, unlike the fcc order it was also punitive. third, while the broadcast media can easily issue warn­ ings about program content, such warnings are not feasible in the unique world of cyberspace. finally, the special factors justifying regulation of broadcast media, such as their invasive nature and the scarcity of avail­ able frequencies, are inapplicable to the "vast democratic fora of the internet" (reno v. american civil liberties union, 1997, 2343). the court also was unconvinced by the government's claim that the cda's reach was limited because it applied only to violations commit­ ted knowingly. since most internet forums are open to all comers, the court reasoned, the cda essentially allowed a heckler's veto in that a person opposed to the operation of a sexually explicit internet forum could effectively close it down simply by having his or her child present in it. nor was the court reassured by the government's declaration that legitimate sexually oriented material was outside the scope of the cda, for the text of the law gave no such guarantee, leaving open the possibil­ ity that it could be appliedto serious discussion of topics like rapc, birth control, and homosexuality. finally, like the three-judge court, the jus­ tices thought that section 225e gave less protection to internet content providers than met the eye since "tagging" and age verification systems are either technologically ineffective or unduly costly. since content pro-­ viders cannot be sure as to whether minors arc among their customers, to avoid liability they would have to refrain from offering otherwise le­ gal material, thereby burdening communication among adults. such a 35 1999 commonwealth.max burden is unacceptable, the court said, if less reslrictive alternatives for achieving the government's interests exist. the court emphasized that while software allowing content providers to regulate the distribution of their material does not currently exist, there are programs offering par­ ents a reasonably effective way to prevent their children from accessing material thal pah~1tlt>, at> uppu~ed tu guvernment, deem inappropriate. "the interest in encouraging freedom of expression in a democratic soci­ ety," justice stevens concluded, "outweighs any theoretical but unproven benefit of censorship" (reno v. american civil liberties union, 1997, 2351). while the three-judge court and the supreme court invoked the unique nature uf cyberspace in ::;triking down the indecency provisions of the cda, they expressly endorsed governmental power to prosecute internet ob­ scenity. yet, first amendment doctrine regarding indecency and obscen­ ity alike rests upon certain premises about the nature of the environment in which such expression occurs. if communications technology changes that environment, thereby altering doctrine regarding the one concept, must not doctrine regarding the oth~r concept change as well? clues to answering this question are in justice o'connor's concurring opinion in reno (1997). she saw the cda as an attempt to create "adult zones" on the internet by segregating indecent material to areas beyond the reach of children, an objective that would have been constitutional had the means chosen to achieve it not violated first amendment rights. adult zones work, she said, when applied to a "physical world" based upon "geogra­ phy" and "identity." a child attempting to enter a nude bar, for example, would be recognized as being underage and stopped accordingly. she fuund the "electronic world" to be "fundamentally different," however, since speakers and listeners need not be in close physical proximity and they can mask their identities. nonetheless, she argued that the internet reflects a kind of geography in that sites exist at fixed locations in cyberspace around which it is possible to construct barriers, based upon some form of adult identification, and use them to screen people seeking entry to adult sites, much as a bouncer "cards" young people wanting to get into a nightclub. while justice o'connor thought, "the prospects for the eventual zoning of the internet appear promising," she nevertheless concluded that technological limitations leave cyberspace "largely unzoned clhd un;wneable" (renu v. american civil liberties union, 1997,2354). justice o'connor misunderstood the nature of cyberspace in contend­ ing that it is sufficiently akin to the physical world to be amenable to zoning. by her own admission, the anonymity and physical separation of people using the internet dramatically alter the supervisory equation. after all, her hyputhetical nightclub bouncer can readily see and thus bar underage customers, whereas a provider of adult services on the internet cannot. justice o'connor's confusion notwithstanding, her distinction 36 1999 commonwealth.max between "geographic" and "virtual" worlds is useful in analyzing the impact of the internet on obscenity doctrine. justice stevens revealed an awareness of "virtual reality" when he recognized that cyberspace is situ­ ated in "no particular geographic location but available to anyone, any­ where in the world, with access to the internet" (reno v. american civil liberties union, 1997, 2335). yet, he missed the implicatiuus uf the cum­ munications revolution for the court's obscenity framework when he deplored a scenario wherein a parent who sends his seventeen year old college freshman information about birth control via e-mail is prosecuted under the cda "even though neither he, his child, nor anyone in their home community, found the material 'i.ndecent' ur 'patently uffensive,' if the college town's community thought otherwise" (reno, 1997, 2348). justice stevens presumably opposed such a prosecution because the geo­ graphic community containing the college had no business intruding into the transmission of the information between parent and child since the exdh:wge was a private matter that did nut affect the college community. still, he was willing to accept the same scenario if it involved obscenity rather than indecency. such inconsistency in dealing with the impact of the internet on the first amendment calls for a reconsideration of the court's obscenity doctrine in light of the workings of cyberspace.s iii. cyberspace and the supreme court's obscenity doctrine congress has long prohibited obscenity in the context of radio, television, telephones, the mail, and cable communication. opponents of cybersmut would extend this prohibition to the internet, but computer collullwucation does hul easily hllhe framewurk establbhed by the su­ preme court in miller v. california (1973) for deternlining what consti­ tutes obscenity. under miller (1973, 24), a jury first would have to say, "whether the average person, applying contemporary community stan­ dards, would find that the work, taken as a whole, appeals to the pruri­ ent interest." second, the jury would have lo determine "whether the work depicts or describes, in a patently offensive way, sexual conduct specifically defined by the applicable state law." finally; the jury would have to decide "whether the work, taken as a whole, lacks serious liter­ ary, artistic, political, or scientific value." showing that "community" has itlultiple meanings evell when ullderslouu ill purely geugraphic terms, the court emphasized that by "contemporary community stan­ dards" it meant those of specific local communities rather than some undifferentiated national community. it is "neither realistic nor consti­ tutionally sound," said the court, "to read the first amendment as re­ quiring that the people of maine or mississippi accept public depiction of conduct found tolerable in las vegas or new york city" (miller v. california, 1973,32). accordingly; local juries were empowered to deter37 1999 commonwealth.max mine what appeals to prurient interest and what i::; patently offen:;ive because such judgments will vary from one community to another. as a result of this localized approach to obscenity, the first amendment may protect sexually explicit material in one community but not in another. the reasons that the court offered in miller (1973) as to why obscenity is not protected under the first amendment show that it understood a "community" to be a discrete, homogeneous, and geographically defined locality wherein sexually explicit materials can have a tangible and ad­ verse impact. obscenity, the court said, "may be validly regulated by a state in the exercise of its traditional local power to protect the general welfare of its population" (miller v. california, 1973, 32-33, note 13). ac­ cordingly, sex and morality "may not be exploited without limit by films or pictures exhibited or sold in places of public accommodation any more than live sex and nudity can be exhibited or sold without limit in such public places" (miller v. california, 1973, 25-26). in paris adult theatre v. slaton (1973, 69), a companion casej' the court was even clearer in basing the power to ban obscenity on the authority of states to conclude that "pub­ lic' exhihition of obrcene material, or commerce in such material. has a tendency to injure the community as a whole." given the benefits to be gained from "stemming the tide of commercialized obscenity," the court held that regulation of erotica is justified by "the interest of the public in the quality of life and the total community environment, the tone of com­ merce in the great city centers, and, possibly, the public safety itself" (paris adult theatre v. slaton, 57-58). in short, the court's obscenity cases viewed "communities" as physical territories composed of relatively homogeneous individuals sharing a common understanding of the sexual mores of their neighborhoods and fearing tangible harm to themselves and to their so­ cia 1 and em nomic environments from the availability therein of obscenity. this view of community misperceives what justice stevens in a later obscenity case called "our diverse, mobile, metropolitan society" (smith v. united states, 1977, 314, note 10). the atomizing forces of contempo­ rary life, including but not limited to the internet, are undermining the baflifl for obflcenity law by eroding the societal homogeneity fostered by physical proximity. the internet enables people with similar interests to find each other, for physical connection no longer is necessary to initiate and maintain relationships. computer communication brings more people into contact with one another, thereby breaking down geographic .. barriers and cultural homogeneity. the range of information available to people using computers is likely to surpass that available to people in physical proximity, which further changes and diversifies opinions. as intellectual interaction increases across geographic communities, toler­ ance within those communities for sexual expression increases too. in fact, the internet gives people a degree of liberating anonymity unavail38 1999 commonwealth.max able to members of a physical community who may feel a need to con­ ceal any unconventional beliefs they might hold for fear of adverse com­ munity reaction should those beliefs be revealed. consequently, com­ municators via computer need not worry about conforming unduly to the values of those around them. in short, "as individuals have more choices and greater opportunities to develop their own tastes, tolerance for sexual expression can only become increasingly varied among the members of local geographical communities" (sergent, 1996, 710). the supreme court's narrow view of "community" also ignores the vastness of cyberspace. adult internet sites cannot target their services to particular geographic communities and then tailor their content to meet the various decency standards of those' communities. to do so, they would either have to establish data bases of people eligible to ac­ cess sexually explicit material or individually monitor each request for such material, options that would be both impractical and cost prohibi­ tive (kabalka, 1996). nor can service providers know the prevailing ob­ scenity standards of every jurisdiction in the nation that might access their products. even if they could, it would still be impossible to deter­ mine which community's standards ought to be used to determine the permissibility of a given transmission. unlike postal mail, computer messages are not sent to identifiable, geographically-based addresses. service providers thus have no way of knowing where customers are because they have no control over the physical localities into which their products may wander. even if they do know the location of receiving computers, they have no control over people who join their services in jurisdictions allowing obscenity but log in from other jurisdictions where such material is not permissible (sergent, 1996, 710-713). as a result of these problems, service providers would have no choice but to alter the content of their sites to meet the standards of the most restrictive com­ munity having access to them. in any case, adult internet sites adminis­ tered by system operators are only one source of cybersmut. one of the biggest venues, "usenet," has no system operators at all but simply lists addresses for postings on particular topics. the "local community stan­ dards" framework simply cannot work here. the difficulties of applying miller (1973) to cyberspace can be seen in united states v. thomas (1996), which sustained the first federal prosecu­ tion of an internet adult site for the interstate transmission of obscenity. robert and carlene thomas, operators of a major sex-oriented bbs called "amateur action," distributed sexually explicit images from their ser­ vice in milipitas, california to thousands of customers around the world. they were indicted in memphis, tennessee, where an undercover postal agent had downloaded samples from their site, rather than in california because prosecutors believed that community attitudes toward obscen39 1999 commonwealth.max ity were more conservative in the "bible belt" than they were on the west coast. the thomases claimed that under miller (1973) they should have been tried in california rather than in tennessee because that was where the pictures came from and because the transmission was iuiti­ ated by the postal agent, not them. they noted too that they had not advertised in tennessee and had no physical presence there. the heart of their argument, though, was that because the internet has broken down geographic boundaries, people in one community cannot dictate what is morally acceptable for those in another. the trial judge rejected the8e arguments, seeing no difference between the thomases allowing cus­ tomers to download erotica from their site and mailing out such material themselves. if an analogy to the physical world is to be made, however, a better one, wherein the thomases would not have been liable, was the postal agent traveling to california where erotica was legal, making a purchase, and taking it back to tennessee. the thomases may have made the material available, but it was the agent who introduced it into a juris­ diction where it was illegal (byassee, 1995, 212-216). furthermore, the belief that sexually explicit material can undermine the qugtlily of life ill a spedfic 10l:al 1:0iiliilunity may make sense when such material appears in a tangible form such as magazines or videos that can be physically transported from one geographic location to another, and bought and sold in relatively open display. for instance, applying a geographic definition of "community" to physical establishments like adult theatres and bookstores seems reasollable bel:gtuse the 8pillover effects of these businesses, such as crime and reduced property values, can affect the "total community environment" and "tone of commerce" of the sur­ rounding community. this regulatory approach makes little sense, how­ ever, when applied to individuals using computer modems in the privacy of their own homes lo access sexllgtllllgttei"iallol:ateu at internet !:lites un­ related to the local physical community. such material cannot affect the quality of life in the surrounding community because it never physically enters it but simply moves unobtrusively over telephone lines from one computer to another. websites differ significantly from town theatres and bookstores in that they are not local, stationary plal:eo of public bu:;ine:;!:l where patrons can literally walk in, make a purchase, and walk out. rather than sell tangible commodities, they transmit digital information that is indecipherable as it travels through the physical community and there­ fore cannot adversely affect that community. only after it reaches its des­ tination in the pdvacy of a purdlgtsej's i:omputer i:alllt be i:onverteu into a form that can be read or viewed, at which point it is no longer in the physical community in the sense of being exposed to the public eye. such material is not foisted upon the local community by intrusive providers but is pulled into private computers by willing purchasers. 40 1999 commonwealth.max defining obscenity in terms of "local community standards" based upon a view of" community" as a discrete, physical territory is thus inap­ propriate for a medium where information is readily accessible from any­ where on earth. the vagaries of the idea of "local community standards," the impracticality of ascertaining them for all localities across the nation, and the impossibility of identifying either the geographic source or desti­ nation of much of the material passing over the internet prevent consum­ ers as well as service providers from determining what level of constitu­ tional protection is granted to erotica. because the supreme court has allowed the meaning of obscenity to vary from one locality to another, prosecutors are encouraged to engage in "forum shopping" whereby they can choose among several jurisdictions the most morally conservative one in which to initiate an obscenity case so as to increase the likelihood of obtaining a conviction. similarly; they can prosecute a provider of sexu­ ally explicit material in several jurisdictions simultaneously without vio­ lating the constitutional prohibition against double jeopardy. fear among service providers about the time and expense of defending against such prosecutions may have a chilling effect upon the distribution of what in many localities might be acceptable material. afraid of risking prosecu­ tion for trafficking in obscenity; internet users would be forced to engage in self-censorship by adapting their preferences for sexually oriented material to the most puritanical locality through which their erotic trans­ missions might pass. the problem with miller (1973), then, was in as­ suming that geographically-based localities can regulate speech in their own jurisdictions without inhibiting expression elsewhere. iv. from geographic communities to "cyber-communities" the problems in trying to apply established obscenity doctrine to cybersmut suggcst a nccd to cxpand our undcrstanding of the term" com­ munity." like the supreme court did in its obscenity cases, we generally think of a community as an association whose partners share member­ ship, participate in communal affairs, imbue the collective with their moral values, and feel a commitment toward one another as parties in a com­ mon enterprise. moreover, like the court, we tend to equate communi­ ties with particular physical locations having discrete geographic bound­ aries such as a cities, states, and even nations. to be sure, physical place stimulates, shapes, and sustains a geographic community because the close physical proximity of the community's members necessitates much face to face interaction, which not only imbues the communing parties with a keen sense of common purpose and identity, but also promote~ informed decision-making due to the extensive deliberation that inevita­ bly accompanies sustained personal interchange. in addition to these physically situated associations, however, there are also tightly knit non41 1999 commonwealth.max geographic communities whose unity is based upon factors other than shared geographic location such as ethnicity, kinship, religion, language, and profession. examples of non-geographic communities include afri­ can··amcricans, roman catholics, political scientists, and karl marx's "workers of the world." although members of such communities do not necessarily share physical propinquity, they are bonded together by the key element of any community: a sense of fellowship based upon shared values and interests. a group of people joined together in a common enterprise need not be geographically based before it can be called a "com­ munity" so long as it possesses the essential attributes of a community. does cyberspace constitute a "community," or is it merely a vast com­ puterized marketplace for the acquisition and distribution of sterile in­ formation? some see the internet as "no more than a library, entertain­ ment center, and telephone all wrapped up into one," making cyberspace not a community at all but "simply a huge and heterogeneous group of people accessing the internet for an endless variety of reasons" (heumann, 1995,208). cyberspace may notpe a community in the traditional, physi­ cal sense, but it does possess the defining element of a community: it is composed of groups of like-minded people coming together and inter­ acting based upon shared interests and a desire to establish mutually satisfying relationships. howard rheingold (1993, 1, 5) calls these groups "virtual communities," which he defines as "computer-mediated social groups" that emerge "when enough people carry on ... public discussions long enough, with sufficient human feeling, to form webs of personal relationships in cyberspace." people in virtual communities "do just about everything people do in real life," rheingold argues, "but we leave our bodies behind." e-mail, discussion groups, and the world wide web have created countless" cyber-communities" whose members may spend more time with people far away than they do with those in their own backyards. whether they are on-line debating public issues, sharing an interest in a hobby, or providing support for friends with various physi­ calor emotional problems, members of these cyber-communities have a commitment to one another and thus act as good neighbors do in tradi­ tional geographic communities. the only thing missing, but apparently not really necessary for forging a strong sense of community, is physical proximity for the cyber-community's members. of course, cyberspace is not monolithic. it is best understood as a loose federation of many different and often competing communities rather than as some unified empire. some cyber-communities are open to anyone, whereas others restrict membership on some particular basis. hence, their orientations differ, some being professional or business-like, others more casual or family focused. says one observer, "the immediacy and continuity of the content, as well as the informality of the exchanges 42 1999 commonwealth.max and the common interest in the subject matter, tend to reveal the person­ alities of the senders and to foster a sense of shared experiences and shared goals. when these interactions reach critical mass, communities are cre­ ated" (byassee, 1995,202). cyber-communities are thus provisional. those able to sustain themselves prosper, perhaps splitting into subconununi­ ties with more particularized interests and identities, while those unable to maintain their cohesion wither away (dyson, 1995, 27). cyber-com­ munities lack geographic boundaries, yet they are distinguishable juris­ dictions unto themselves in that they consist of people from all over the globe who have chosen to join by voluntarily logging on. the speed with which internet users can exchange informatipn over vast distances obvi­ ates the need for physical proximity. although they are separated spa­ tially:, their high level of interaction gives members of cyber-communities the sense that they share the same place. as internet communication con­ tint;tes to expand, says mike godwin of the electronic frontier founda­ lion, thinking of "local community standards" only in a geographic sense will become increasingly "philosophically bankrupt" to members of cyberspace, for "where these people's mental space is, is not geographi­ cal at all. it is communities of interest virtual communities" (1994, 8). if a particular group of "netizens" constitute a cyber-community wherein sexually explicit materials are not thought to be offensive, must traditional geographic communities grant them the right to send and receive such material? while this cyber-community would not be of­ fended by computerized erotica, the larger geographic community of which they are a part might be. in the event of an obscenity prosecution, which "community standards" ought to apply: those of the geographic community or those of the cyber-community through which the mate­ rial is obtained? do the moral standards of geographic communities trump those of cyber-communities, which by their very nature transcend the boundaries of all physical jurisdictions? the answer to these ques­ tions depends upon whether the abstract, digital dimension of cyberspace is simply an extension of concrete, geographic communities. if it is, then prohibiting obscenity in cyberspace is pennissible; if it is not, then such prohibition not only is unconstitutional but also seriously misguided. invasion of substantial communal interests is necessary before expres­ sion carl be punished, but the sepuration of internet communication from physical communities essentially eliminates any danger to those inter­ ests by allowing opponents of cybersmut to avoid exposure to it. com­ puter users have considerable control over the content, receipt, and ulti­ mate destination of material transmitted through cyberspace. if mem­ bers of eyber-communities knowingly distribute objectionable material to their surrounding geographic communities, holding them liable may be appropriate. otherwise, the ability of the geographic locale to avoid 43 1999 commonwealth.max unwanted erotica would seem to negate its interest in proscribing obscenity. these issues are complicated by stanley v. georgia (1969), wherein the supreme court recognized a right to possess sexually explicit materials within the confines of one's home as opposed to more public places. "whatever the power of the state to control public dissemination of ideas inimical to the public morality," said the court, "it cannot constitution­ ally premise legislation on the desirability of controlling a person's pri­ vate thoughts" (stanley v. georgia, 1969, 566, emphasis added). the court saw no danger that erotica in a private home would be viewed by mi­ non; or unwilli.ng citi:<:t:!w; as cuulu happt:!il in public plact:!s. imlt:!t:!u, llit:! court viewed the home as a sanctuary separate from public places. com­ puter communication is eroding the distinction between private homes and public places, however, by making the world an extension of the home in that material can travel into homes via the "information super­ highway" without having to pass through outside markets. download­ ing an obscene video from the int&rnet is similar to purchasing one by mail: a customer places an order, an attempt is made to ensure that the customer is an adult, and the order is sent from one place to another. the difference is that the internet customer buys nothing tangible, uses no public conduit such as the postal servicc in procuring the order, and never contributes to any possible deterioration of the surrounding geographic community by patronizing a local retailer of adult products. does stanley (1969) protect such transactions, or can local communities shield them­ selves from erotica sent over the internet? the logic of stanley (1969) suggests granting autonomy to cyber-communities, but conclusions are difficult since the court has obscured the scope of this decision, holding that while the first amendment allows people to control the flow of in­ formation into their homes, states can regulate the distribution of ob­ scene materials. for example, in rowan v. united states post office department (1970), the court upheld a federal law prohibiting the mailing of sexually ori­ ented advertisements to people who specifically indicated that they did not wish to receive them. the court stressed the privacy interest of homeowners in deciding what material would enter their homes. the court later invalidated a federal law banning the mailing of unsolicited advertisements for contraceptives on the grounds that people have a right to decide what mail to accept and that "the level of discourse reaching a inailbox simply cannot be limited lo thal which would be suitable for a sandbox" (bolger v. youngs drug products corp., 1983, 74). these cases emphasized the right of people to control the flow of mail into their homes. the same principle ought to apply to material entering via the internet, for prohibiting the transmission of erotica denies people the option of 44 1999 commonwealth.max receiving it. in united stated v. reidel (1971), however, the court refused to extrapolate from the right of an individual to possess obscenity within the home a right under the first amendment for a purveyor of such material to sell it to the homeowner. drawing a distinction between pri­ vate possession in the home and regulation of external speech, the court similarly ruled in united states v. orito (1973) that the right to possess erotica within one's home does not include a right to get it there via the postal service. finally, the court made an exception to stanley (1969) in osborne v. ohio (1990), holding that government's compelling interest in combating child pornography extends not just to the production and dis­ tribution of such material but also to its posse,ssion and use, even in the privacy of one's home. in short, because stanley (1969) rested more upon the right to privacy than upon the first amendment, people have a right to possess most kinds of erotica at home but may have trouble getting such material there in the first place. ullim.ately, applying a geo?raphic understanding of "local commu nity standards" to cyber-communities violates the logic of miller (1973). as the court noted, "different states vary in their tastes and attributes, and this diversity is not to be strangled by the absolutism of imposed uniformity" (miller v. california, 1973,33). since the internet crosses state lines, allowing juries to use local community standards means that com puter-transmitted erotica will be judged by the standards of the most conservative geographic localities. if there is a clear likelihood of cybersmut harming a physical community, such as when children are used to produce obscenity, then application of a geographic community's standards is appropriate. if, however, regulation is intended either to protect unwitting passersby or to prohibit obscenity in a community that does not want it, then the standards of the geographic community are inapposite inasmuch as cybersmut generally is circulated only electroni­ cally within groups of consenting adults. the geographic locales in which these "netizens" happen to reside simply arc not part of the "commu­ nity" in which cybersmut is exchanged and are not affected by it. as sexually explicit material continues to move from the open marketplace to private computers, "traditional concerns about obscenity, such as ac­ cessibility to children, sensibilities of the general public, and secondary effects on the neighborhood surrounding the point of distribution" will continue to lose their relevance (harvard law review, 1994, 1094). with regard to cybersmut, then, the "local community standards" framework ought to be replaced with a "cyber-community standard." under such a standard juries would be drawn neither from computer users in general­ nor from devotees of cybersmut in particular. indeed, there would be no juries because in cases of sexually explicit material confined to cyber­ communities there would be no offense. 45 1999 commonwealth.max v. adapting the first amendment to eyber-communities in expanding our understanding of ii community" so as to adapt tradi­ tional first amendment values to changing technology, two principles are crucial. first, an open and decentralized "marketplace of ideas" 6 must be maintaine'd. as the' supre'idp court said in associated press v. united states (1945, 20), the first amendment "rests on the assumption that the widest possible dissemination of information from diverse and antago­ nistic sources is essential to the welfare of the public." the mass media constitute a closed system because even with cable television offering hnndrpds of channe'!s, the' number of forums is limited and not all views are heard since availability is a function of what sells. moreover, system dynamics essentially make network owners information gatekeepers. their control over access and distribution significantly burdens smaller, independent programmers who must negotiate expensive carriage agree­ ments with large network operators. by contrast, open access networks like the internet can accommodate an unlimited number of information providers and users, thus ensuring a variety of cyber-communities. fur­ thermore, because the internet is uecenlrallz;ed, there is no single point for origination of content and no need for special arrangements with net­ work operators to send information to other people using the system. lower barriers to entry for independent informati.on providers is espe­ cially desirable since they are more likely to reflect a diversity of opinions than are large media conglomerates and they urc more difficult to control by the dominant forces in the media industry (berman and weitzner, 1995, 1622-1624). special solicitude for the internet might even reverse the trend in recent years toward ever-greater concentration of the mass media. the second principle necessary for adapting the first amendment to cyber-communities is to ensure their members control over information content. the supreme court has emphasized that "at the heart of the first amendment lies the principle that each person should decide for him or herself the ideas and beliefs deserving of expression, consider­ ation, and adherence" (turner broadcasting system v. federal communica­ tions commission, 1994, 641). lack of p{fpctivp llflr->r control over "inde­ cent" radio broadcasts largely explains the court's support for the fcc's ban on risque recordings during times when children could be listening (federal communications commission v. pacifica foundation, 1978). by con­ trast, it invalidated the fcc's ban on "dial-a-porn" telephone services . on the grounds that "placing a telephone call is not the same thing as turning on a radio and being taken by surprise by an indecent message" (sable communications v. federal communications commission, 1989, 189). telephone users are less a "captive audience" than ar~ radiu li/;itell~r/;i. there are no captive audiences in cyberspace inasmuch as gaining ac­ cess to internet sites requires people voluntarily to take affirmative steps 46 1999 commonwealth.max involving more technical savvy than does turning on a radio or a televi­ sion. also, unlike broadcast viewers and listeners who are not necessar­ ily aware of content to come and may be offended by it, customers of adult sites un the internet know whal lo expecl because such sites warn about their content before granting access. as interactive media con­ tinue to supplement traditional media, the very nature of communica­ tion in cyber-communities will highlight the inappropriateness of gov­ ernmental regulation of information based upon its content (berman and weitzner, 1995, 1632-1634). how do these two principles for protecting first amendment values in the face of changing communications technology apply to governmen­ tal attempts to control cybersmut? clear and narrowly drawn content regulation may be permissible, depending upon the nature of the mate­ rial regulated and how computer users obtain or send it. for example, government ought to be free to prosecute the intentional distribution of actual obscenity to minors, unconsenting adults, or cyber-communities that do not wish to receive it. attempts to ban "indecency," however, inevitably present problems of vagueness and overbreadth, as the court held in reno (1997). in any case, invasiun uf ::;ubstantial priv<h:y inleresls is necessary to limit cybersmut, but the interactive nature of the internet greatly reduces these privacy concerns by allowing computer users to avoid unwanted communications. restrictions on the knowing receipt of erotica by adult members of cyber-communities have little justifica­ tion, for when computer users cuntrol the information they receive gov­ ernmental regulation is not necessary to protect their privacy interests. when they cannot block undesired information, regulation may be valid, preferably in a way designed to restore their control. a moderate course of action thus seems sensible for regulating obscenity in cyberspace. in the words of one observer, "the infurmaliuh superhighway should nei­ ther force the electronic media into the fold of the highly protected print media, nor should it leave them exposed to the same types of regulations as broadcasting. rather, careful attention to the underlying interests in viewpoint diversity and user control requires a balanced approach" that may serve first amendment values in cyber-conununlties better than does the miller (1973) framework (harvard law review, 1994, 1096). technology exists that would allow people to block cybersmut from their computers (american civil liberties union v. reno, 1996, 839-842). conservatives consider technology to be an inadequate response to the problem of cybersmut. libertarians fear lhal it would shllply replace governmental censorship with private censorship, which while techni­ cally raising no first amendment problems would still threaten freedom of expression by inhibiting the free flow of information in cyberspace (weinberg, 1997, 453-482). screening can be overly broad, blocking out 47 1999 commonwealth.max legitimate discussion of sexual topics as shown by the decision of "america on-line" to ban the word "breast" from its" chat rooms," a move that dismayed breast cancer patients participating in on-line sup­ poit gloups (andrews, 1997). even cuiii:iututlolli:tlly prott!ctt!d speech could be forbidden. a discussion group on first amendment issues, for example, could be banned from using the vulgar reference to the mili­ tary draft that appears in cohen v. california (1971). nor do computer users necessarily know which sites get blocked or why. many are blocked simply because uverburdt!ned software filtt!fs have not reviewed them, a particular problem for small, non-commercial sites which are likely to be rated late in the process, if at all (harmon, 1997b). finally, the sheer size of cyberspace makes it difficult to regulate. with more than 50 mil­ lion internet users and hundreds of thousands of information transfers a day, thousands of screeners would be necessary; thereby delaying com­ munication and undercutting the systemfs utility. as one skeptic con­ cludes, trying to rid cyberspace of erotica "is like trying to shoot an icbm at a gnat; it can't be done without the absolutely most draconian meth­ ods being used" (lewis, 1994, 34). even more troubling than the practical problems of blocking software are the political implications for a society based upon the free exchange of ideas. in the physical world, opposing interests confront one another more or less openly in the political arena where their voices are readily heard as they make their arguments. we may not like what one side or another has to say, but in a relatively open political system, we have little choice but at least to listen. in cyberspace, by contrast, the right to speak does not necessarily guarantee a right to be heard. blocking software can undercut a communications medium that promises the average per­ son the broadest degree of speech yet known. ironically, then, self-regu­ lation may pose a more potent threat to freedom of expression in cyberspace than governmental censorship under the cd a ever could have done. the danger is that people may use technology to create "virtual gated communities" from which they can screen out expression they think inappropriate. as andrew l. shapiro of harvard law school's center for the internet and sodety warns, "democracy doesn't work if you can turn off anyone you don't want to hear from" (harmon, 1997b, d6). just as the cda threatened to throw the proverbial baby out with the bathwater, so too might the alternative of blocking software. lawrence lessig refers to this growing dependence of constitutional values upon tht! capabilitit!~ of computer software as tht! "tyranny of code," whereby program designers acquire the power to grant liberties or take them away (harmon, 1997c, e1). given the control over blocking technology en­ joyed by such gatekeepers of the internet as microsoft, netscape, and 1/ america on line," "tyranny" is not too strong a word. 48 1999 commonwealth.max although problematic, the best way to deal with cybersmut is to fine tune blocking software so as to permit informed self-regulation in a largely free market. let those who want computerized erotica have it, so long as lhose who do not arc able to avoid it. in this way, "the programming tastes of the many need not be held hostage to the particular sensibilities of the few, or vice versa" (harvard law review, 1994, 1095). this approach is preferable to governmental censorship because it can be tailored to the values of individual families. besides, censorship is at best an after-the­ fact response to cybcrsmut, whereas blocking software reduces the risk of seeing it in the first place. since these programs can block material coming from anywhere in cyberspace, they are to that extent more effec­ tive than governmental censorship, which cannot reach foreign-based internet sites. by focusing on the voluntariness of the user rather than on the mores of the user's geographic community, service providers would no longer have to guess the "community standards" prevailing in the user's locale. a technological approach would thus "provide important protection for those creating 'virtual' communities dispersed across wide geographic areas by giving them the ability to define their 'boundaries' free from the harassment of individual juries in distant locales" (sergent, 1996,724). just as an on-line group of "cyber-evangelists" could set the standards for their virtual community, so too could a bevy of "cyber-lib­ ertines" do so for theirs. by following the preferences of cyber-communi­ ties rather than those of geographic communities, a "virtual community standard" would" preserve the framework and tradition of obscenity law, while adapting to the challenges created by cyberspace" (egan, 1996, 152). conclusion the internet is rapidly becoming a vital tool not only for personal and professional corrcspondence, but also for banl<ing, commerce, education, recreation, politics, and the dissemination of news and other informa­ tion. like every new technology, however, the internet presents prob­ lems as well as opportunities, especially with regard to freedom of ex­ pression. does the revolution in computer communications require sig­ nificant revision of traditional first amendment principles first devel­ oped in the simpler context of print and broadcast media? the funda­ mental tenets of freedom of expression ought not be jettisoned just be­ cause communications technology changes, yet it is difficult to imagine the first amendment continuing to exist unmodified as the internet in­ exorably transforms the communications process. in grappling with the problem of cybersmut in particular, the judiciary wilt in the words of jerry berman of the center for democracy and technology, "decide the limits of free speech for the 21st century," but "if the judges don't under­ stand the internet they may pick the wrong paradigm" (lewis, 1996, d2). 49 1999 commonwealth.max in striking down the cda, the supreme court showed an appreciation for the dynamics of the internet against a governmental attempt to ban indecency in cyberspace. on the other hand, by assuming that the ob­ scenity paradigm it established in miller v. california (1973) remains un· disturbed by the telecommunications revolution, the court revealed the limitations of its understanding of the significance of cyber-communities. internet users operate in a realm largely independent of physical world jurisdictions. because cyber-communities essentially are self-contained associations, the norms of the physical world do not readily fit them. forcing those norms to fit could limit the growth of evolving informa­ tion technologies and quash the new social structures to which they are giving rise. regulation of cyberspace may be unnecessary anyway since cyber-communities continually monitor themselves and have adopted an informal code of their own called "netiquette" (rheingold, 1993, 64). when necessary, cyber-communities can enforce their own standards of conduct as, for example, when members of an unruly usenet newsgroup decide to appoint a moderator, or when members of a "listserv" disci­ pline or even exile an aberrant fellow member. such informal self-regu­ lation by cyber-communities is possible with regard to more scrious matters such as cybersmut. these new associations ought to be given a chance to develop and test their own rules and sanctions before govern­ ment attempts to impose what may be less appropriate ones. "an explo­ ration of the culture of cyberspace," writes ethan katsch (1995, 1692), "may suggest as much about the future role of the first amendment as an analysis of cases and doctrine. at the very least, experiences in cyberspace, and the expectations and values fostered by this new envi­ ronment, should be examined along with judicial assessments of the rel­ evance of past decisions and experiences." properly understanding the internet is vital because "the shape and character of our nation's communications infrastructure is critical to our democratic values" (berman and weitzner, 1995, 1635). early in our his­ tory, newspapers and the mail system helped to unite the nation. later, television and radio brought americans closer together. today this role is being played by computers. communication in cyberspace diffcrs from traditional modes of communication in that the internet gives individu­ als an opportunity to be both producers and receivers of information. whereas the mass media are a single source of information going to multiple receivers, and common carriers are a single source of informa­ tion going to either single or multiple receivers, the internet permits com­ munication from the many to the many, thereby blurring the distinction in the communication process between reader and reporter. further­ more, because the internet is a means of communication cheap enough to allow access to virtually anyone, the influence of users is based not 50 1999 commonwealth.max upon their wealth ur status, i:u; is su uftt:!ll the ci:lt;!:! in the physical wurld, but upon their ability to make and disseminate reasoned arguments. the internet thus offers citizens an opportunity to realize the democratic ideal of the town hall meeting by providing what could become a model of "civil and thoughtful discourse leading to consensual governance" (branscomb, 1995, 1670). iii this way, tht:! illt!:!mt:!t hulus prulll!se [or correcting some of the market failures of democracy, for democracy can­ not function effectively without citizens who are informed and indepen­ dent yet also connected to their fellow citizens. these are precisely the qualities that cyber-communities foster. perhaps the most significant aspect of cyb,er-communities for demo­ cratic politics is that they can shield people from the tyranny of demo­ cratic majorities and the governments representing them. james madi­ son and alexis de tocqueville recognized long ago that minorities are vulnerable in majoritarian democracies. in cyberspace, however, minori­ tit:!s afe free to form the!l own enclaves operating in anonymity outside the boundaries of physical jufisdictions, thus leading to a "world of self­ contained communities that cater to their own members' inclinations without interference with anyone else's" (dyson, 1995, 27). eyber-com­ munities are becoming the key mediating institution of the computer age, providing a counterweight to and a check upon the power of terres­ trial societies and governments. in addition, the loyalties fostered by cyber-communities may help to restore the core notion of community in a world where physical proximity, familial relationships, and associa­ tional institutions like churches and work groups no longer easily forge bonds ilmong people. as one defender of this new order puts it, "we now have within our grasp a technology designed to bring together like­ minded individuals, regardless of where they live, work, or play, to en­ gage in the creation of a new type of democratic community: a commu­ nity unbounded by geographical, temporal, or other physical barriers" (branscomb, 1995, 1640). while there is no guarantee that new commu­ nications technology will continue the advancement of democratic val­ ues, because of the internet we are closer than ever before to having a truly open, diverse, and user controlled "marketplace of ideas." as with any market, of course, some of the internet's products, such as cybersmut, may not be considered desirable by all of the market's cus­ tomers, but banning them would not be worth the price paid in harm to first amendment values as well as to the increasingly beneficial uses of computer communications. achieving the lnternet's full democratic po­ tential requires judging it in the context of cyberspace rather than in the context of paradigms from the past, such as geographic commllnitiefl or print and broadcast technology. traditional first amendment doctrine must not be applied peremptorily to cyber-communities because 51 1999 commonwealth.max cyberspace is not simply an electronic version of "regular space." admit­ tedly, "local community standards" ought to be enforced with regard to internet obscenity, but these standards ought to be defined by ryher-com­ munities themselves, not by geographic communities that are essentially removed from and little affected by the problem. since established modes of analysis are not readily transferable to cyberspace, more appropriate models must be found. doing so requires reading the first amendment in light of what justice louis brandeis called "the progreils of sdence" (olmstead '0. united states, 1928, 474), for ill the words ofthomas jefferson, our greatest defender of democracy, "laws and institutions must go hand in hand with the progress of the human mind .... a:s new discoveries are made .. .institutions must advance also, and keep pace with the times" (jefferson, 1905, 12). by thinking about the first amendment in new ways for a new age, we can save it from being lost in cyberspace. notes i 1. censorship involves two main categories of sexually explicit material: obscenity and indecency. obscenity is legally punishable, whereas in­ decency generally is constitutionally protected. when for purposes of clarity these two categories need to be differentiated, this study will do so. otherwise, it will usc the rubric" cybersmut" to refer to a wide array of erotic products and services made available on the internet with the intention of sexually arousing either their provider or those persons gain­ ing access to them. 2. neither the first amendment nor the right of privacy protects" child pornoeraphy" (see ni'7jj york 7), ferber, 1982; and osborne v, ohio, 1990). because the supreme court's reasons for allowing the punishment of such material differ from its reasons for allowing the punishment of ob­ i:>cenity generally, child pornography is not relevant to this study. 3. a vague law is unclear about what it reaches; an overbroad law reaches too much. a law will be invalidated on grounds of vagueness if persons of "common intelligence must necessarily guess at its meaning and dif­ fer as to its application" (connally v. general construction company, 1926, 391). under the overbreadth doctrine governmental objectives "lll,ay nol be achieved by means which sweep unnecessarily broadly and thereby invade the area of protected freedoms" (naacp '0. alabama, 1958). rather, government must use narrow, carefully tailored means to achieve its ob­ jectives. 4, justice o'eoxmor filed a concurring opinion, joined by chief justice rehnquist. although she agreed that section 223d of the cd a was overly broad, she believed that section 223a could be applied constitutionally in cases of deliberate transmission of indecent material to minors where no adults are among the recipients. 5. hoping to address the court's objections to the cda, congress 52 1999 commonwealth.max enacted in october 1998 the child online protection act (47 u .s.c.a. 231), which made it a crime for commercial internet sites to make available to those under age seventeen material deemed "harmful to minors." this law was clearer and more narrow than the cd a in that it did not apply to all internet users and targeted obscenity rather than mere indecency. nevertheless, a federal judge blocked its enforcement on the grounds that like the cda it had a "chilling effect" on constitutionally protected ex­ pression since the difficulty of verifying patrons' ages would force many non-obscene yet sexually frank internet sites to censor themselves rather than risk prosecution (american civil liberties union v. reno n 1999). this ruling is currently pending before the third circuit court of appeals. 6. the cornerstone of modern first amej'"dment theory, the market­ place metaphor posits that free expression is valuable more for its soci­ etal benefits, such as the search for truth and the process of self-govern­ ment, than for its intrinsic worth to individual speakers. it assumes that truth will be most easily identified and falsehood most easily rejected if government stays out of the/marketplace (see milton, 1951; mill, 1956; and the dissenting opinion of justice oliver wendell holmes in abrams v. united states, 1919). deopite ito prominence, the marketplace iuca has its critics (see schauer, 1982; and ingber, 1984). rtderences abrams v. united states, 250 u.s. 616 (1919). american civil liberties union v. reno, 929 f.supp. 824 (ed. fa. 1996). american civil liberties union v. reno ii, civil action no. 98-5591 (e.d. pa., 1999). andrews, edmund 1. 1995. "smut ban backed for computer net." new york times. march 24. __ . 1997. "compuserve's pornography access brings german charge." new york times. april 17. associated press v. united states, 326 u.s. 1 (1945). berman, jerry and danielj. weitzner. 1995. "abundance and user control: re­ newing the democratic heart of the first amendment in the age of interac­ tive media." yale law journal. 104: 1619-1637. bolger v. youngs drug products corp., 463 u.s. 60 (1983). branscomb, anne. 1995. "anonymity; autonomy, and acc01.mtability: challenges to the first amendment in cyberspace." yale law journal. 104:1639-1679. byassee, william s. 1995. "jurisdiction of cyberspace: applying real world precedent to the virtual community./i wake forest law review. 30;197-220. cohen v. california, 403 u.s. 15 (1971). congressional record. 1995. 104th cong., 1st sess. connally v. general construction company, 269 u.s. 385 (1926). dyson, esther. 1995. "if you don't love it, leave it." new york times magazine. july 16. egan, patrick t. 1996. "virtual community standards: should obscenity law recognize the contemporary community standard of cyberspace?" suffolk 1 inil)~r.~ity law review. 30:117-152. 53 1999 commonwealth.max exon, jim. 1996. "the communication decency act." federal communications law journal. 49:95-97. federal communications commission v. pacifica foundation, 438 u.s. 726 (1978). gates, bill. 1993. the road ahead. new york: transaction. godwin, mike. 1994. "the first amendment in cyberspace." temple political and civil rights law review. 4:1-14. greenhouse, linda. 1997. "justices weigh decency rules for the internet." new york times. march 20. harmon, amy. 1997a. "for parentg, a new and vexing burden." new york times. june 27. __ . 1997b. "ideological foes meet on web indecency." new york times. de­ cember 1. __ . 1997c. "the self-appointed cops of the information age." new york times. december 7. harvard law review. 1994. "the message in the medium: the first amendment on the information superhighway." 107: 1062-1098. heumann, douglas c. 1995. "united states v. thornton: will the community stan­ dard be roadkill on the informatio,n superhighway?" western state university law review. 23:189-218. . huelster, pamela a. 1995. "cybersex and community standards." boston uni­ versity law review. 75:865-888. ingbel~ stanley. 1984. "the marketplace of ideas: a legitimizing myth." duke law jdlirnnl. 1984'1-91. jefferson, thomas. 1905. the works afthomas jefferson. vol. 12. ed. paul leicester ford. new york: g.p. putnam's sons. kabulka, stephen g. 1996. "application of existing obscenity law to computer transmissions." tennessee law review. 64:21-235. katsch, ethan. 1995. "rights, camera, action: cyberspatial settings and the first amendment." yale law juurnal. 104:1681-1717. levy, steven. 1995. "a bad day in cyberspace." newsweek. june 26. lewis, peter h. 1994. "despite a new plan for cooling it off, cyberspace stays hot." new york tnnes. march 26. __ . 1995. "technology." new york times. october 30. __ . 1996. "on-line services join indecency-law suit." new york times. feb­ ruary 26. lim, frederick b. 1996. "obscenity and cyberspace: community standards in an online world." columbia-vlalaumal aflaw and the arts. 20:291-322. lohr, steve. 1996. "the great unplugged masses confront the future." new york times. april 21. mill, john stuart. 1956. on libn/y. indianapolis' bnbbs-m"rrill (origina1 work published in 1859.) miller v. california, 413 u.s. 15 (1973). milton, john. 1951. "acropagiticu." in george h. sabine, cd. john milton, aerapagitica lind of education. new york: appleton-century crofts. (original work published in 1644.) n.c.a.a. v. alabama, 357 u.s. 449 (1958). new york times. 1995. "senator grassley's surf police." june 22. new york v. ferbel~ 458 u.s. 747 (1982). 54 1999 commonwealth.max olmstead v. united states, 277 u.s. 438 (1928). osborne v. ohio, 495 u.s. 103 (1990). paris adult theater v. slaton, 412 u.s. 49 (1973). reno v. american civil liberties union, 117 s.ct. 2329 (1997). rheingold, howard. 1993. the virtual community: homesteading the electronic fron­ tier. reading, ma: addison-wesley. rimm, marty. 1995. "marketing pornography on the information superhigh­ way: a study of 917,410 images, descriptions, short stories, and animations, downloaded 8.5 million times by consumers in over 2,000 cities in forty countries, provinces, and terrilories." georgetown law journal. 83;1849-1934. robinson, phillip and nancy tamosaitis. 1993. the joy of cybersex. new york: brady computer books. rowan v. united states 1jost uffice department, 397 u'.s. 728 (1970). sable communications v. federal communications commission, 492 u.s. 115 (1989). schauer, john. 1982. free speech: a philosophical enquiry. cambridge: cambridge university press. schlachter, eric. 1995. "cyberspace, the free market, and the free marketplace of tde,,~: re('oeni?:ing t.eg" 1 niffe~en('es in computer bulletin board func­ tions." hastings communications and entertainment law journal. 16:87-150. shackelford, steve. 1992. "computer-related crime: an international problem in need of an international solution." texas intemutionul law journal. 27:479505. sergent, randolph stuart. 1996. "the 'hamlet' fallacy: computer networks and the geographic roots of obscenity regulation." hastings constitutional law quarterly. 23:671-726. smith v. united states, 431 u.s. 291 (1977). stanley v. georgia, 394 u.s. 557 (1969). stoll, clifford. 1995. silicon snake oil: second thoughts on the information super­ highway. new york: doubleday. time. 1995. "cyberporn." july 3. turner broadcasting system v. federal communications commission, 512 u.s. 622 (1994). united states v. orito, 413 u.s. 139 (1973). united states v. reidel, 402 u.s. 351 (1971). united states v. titomas, 74 f.3d 701 (6th cix. 1996). weinberg, jonathan. 1997. "rating the net." hastings communications and enter­ tainment law journal. 38:207-235. 55 ó would you vote for colin powell? white support for a not quite colorless black candidate* april gresham villanova, p a robert maranto villanova university sigelman et al (1995), williams (1990), and sonenshein (1990) find that whites stereotype african-american candidates as less competent and more lib­ eral than white candidates. yet increasing numbers of african-americans win election in white constituencies. we used a natural experiment, the media boom • for a colin powell presidential bid in 1994, to test the degree to which various race-related attitudes affected powell support among white voters. we con­ dueled a phone 5urvey of 350 while,perm::;yluaniu resitlentt; from june to no­ vember 1994. powell had as much support as any republican. powell support was unrelated to conservatism, party, and affirmative action. for democrats, powell support was related to attitudes toward nafta and immigration. for republicans, powell support was related to authoritarianism and populism. we conclude with speculation about future directions for research. introduction and hypotheses schuman, steeh, and bobo (1988 73-81) and thernstrom and thernstrom (1997) report that the percentage of whites willing to vote for an african-american presidential candidate rose sharply from the late 1950s to the early 1970s, and slowly thereafter. by the early 1980s, more than 80% of whites expressed willingness to vote for a black presi­ dential candidate. further, some african-americans have won election to overwhelmingly white constituencies. these include former senator carol moseley braun (d, il), former virginia governor l. douglas wilder, former u.s. representative alan wheat (d, ma, who lost a 1994 senate race), former u.s. house member gary franks (r, ct) and current u.s. representative j.e. watts (r, ok)(barone and ujifusa 1993). yet black candidates in white constituencies still face obstacles. vot­ ers use personal information about candidates, including ethnicity, to make presumptions about political views (popkin 1992, 63-64, 77-79). as williams (1990) finds, national surveys show that whites assume black candidates to have certain generic racial attributes, among them liberal... we wish to thank lafayette college and villanova university for material sup­ port of this pwject, paul snidennan fur hdping u~::;igll mca:surement :strategies, and tali mendelberg and several anonymous reviewers for their comments. the usual caveats apply. 53 ism and relative incompetence in office. using experimental manipula­ tions of the race and ideology of hypothetical candidates, sigelman et al (1995) show that whites assume even conservative african-american candidates to be less competent and more sympathetic to disadvantaged groups than comparable white candidates. successful african-ameri­ can politicians in white constituencies have overcome stereotypes in part by empha~izing conservative stands or social characteristics. for example, former los angeles mayor tom bradley stressed his background as a policeman in early races and his business support in later ones (sonenshein 1990). similarly, former massachusetts senator edward brooke and virginia governor l. douglas wilder emphasized their tough stands against crime. wilder also stressed his southern style and status as a military veteran (sonenshein 1990,1993). a natural replication of such research was made possible by the 199495 media boom about a hypothetical presidential bid by former joint chiefs of staff chairman colin powell, the first ~frican-american (tech­ nically caribbean american) to hold the post. though he did not de­ clare his republican affiliation until october 1995 and had contributed campaign money to democrats and republicans alike, powell's military career flourished under republican presidents, and he was widely as­ sumed to be republican. powell's military career appealed more to re­ publicans than to democrats, as did his frequent talk on religious issues and the need for strong families. powell was popular among white reli­ gious conservatives, as shown by the powell biographies frequently fea­ tured at religious bookstores (interview 1; woodward 1991). powell was a particularly interesting candidate to examine since pre­ vious black presidential candidates gesse jackson, shirley chisholm) were liberals, while powell was thought to be moderate or conservative. in 1994-1995 draft powell organizations formed, one led by historian and eisenhower biographer stephen ambrose. as ambrose said, "when people look at him [powell], it makes you proud to be an american ... because, like ike, he makes you believe in the american dream" (elliason 1995). a times-mirror survey conducted in august 1994 showed a republican powell beating clinton by 51 to 41 %. the survey also found a 74% powell approval rating and 8% disapproval. powell himself encouraged presidential speculation, stating, lithe chairman of the jcs is the best job in the world, except for maybe one or two others,"l notably, powell's perceived success in operation desert storm and the status of the military might well inoculate him against racial stereotypes of incompetence (elliason, ii all things considered," march 31, 1995; interview 1; raum 1994). similarly, african-american republicans in general, and former generals in particular, might be immune from ste­ reotypes that they are liberal. we thus propose to test: 54 hi: a powell presidential candiitacy could gaill considerable support among whites. this is not to say that a powell candidacy would be race neutral. \ve will explore the possible impact of three different types of racism on voting for powell: modern or symbolic racism, also referred to as encoded rac­ ism; blatant authoritari~n racism; and populist racism based in realistic group conflict. modern racism researchers contend that many whites pretend color­ blindness while embracing policies that harm african-americans; thus much of what passes for conservatism is in fact disguised, or "modern" racism (mcconahay 1986; sears 1988). hagen (1995) and bloom (1995) investigate "encoded racism" or "explainable racism/' racism expressed by code phrases such as opposition to welfare and concern about crime. their preliminary findings indicate that educated voters in particular express such subtle views and vote prejudicially. one way to explore this type of racism is by examining the relation­ ship between views of powell's candidacy and affirmative action. affir­ mative action could be seen as a racial issue--one of coded or explain­ able racism (bloom 1995). if so, support for powell might be inversely related to affirmative action opposition. on the other hand, powell had not as of 19941inked himself with affirmative action and seemed conser­ vativ@ on nthpr issllps. thw;, wi" propnse: h2: views of affirmative action will not be related to white support for a powell candidacy. a second type of racism is noted by sniderman and piazza (1993), who find that many whites still admit blatantly racist views. they also find that such racism is not strongly related to ideological conservatism but rather to a long-standing personality correlate of prejudice­ authoritarianism (allport 1954). notably, this minority of white ameri­ cans holds authoritarian views on such issues as maintaining respect for america's power, strengthening law and order, making sure all people acquire similar values and ideals, and teaching children respect for au­ thority. authoritarians are not conservatives. they endorse conventional conservative political views only on law and order issues, and unlike other conservatives they negatively stereotype jews (a group that stereotypically embodies the protestant work ethic) as well as african­ americans. in short, authoritarian opinion denigrates all other races (sniderman and piazza 1993, 55, ch. 2, 3; uslaner 2002). thus, we pre­ dict: 55 h3: powell support will be inversely related to authoritarianism. a third type of prejudice is realistic group conflict. according to realistic group conflict theory, a stagnant or unstable economy is associated with height­ ened intergroup tensions as groups compete for scarce resources (bobo 1988; hofstadter 1964; fritzsche 1990; uslaner 2002). immigrants are prime targets of prejudice since they represent competitor groups. according to this theory, vot­ ers see wealth as finite. thus, americans compete with non-citizens (immi­ grants) for jobs in america, and american workers compete with workers in other countries (such as mexico) in the world market. such competition is ass0ciated with prejudice against members of the competing group(s). two political issues at the time of the survey lent themselves to inves­ tigating realistic group conflict based prejudice: nafta and immigra­ tion. these issues highlight a fault line among republicans. "optimist" conservatives such as jack kemp argue that free trade and immigration help all americans; they thus support both nafta and immigration. in contrast, "nationalist" conservatives such as, pat buchanan see economic growth as a zero-sum enterprise: immigration and napta take away ii american" jobs. more important, immigration could destroy america's european based culture, and increase crime and disorder. as buchanan, who other conservatives accuse of racism and anti-semitism, asks, i/[w]hose country is it, anyway?" (frum 1994; lind 1993; buckley 1992). (on the relationship between optimism and tolerance, see uslaner 2002.) the contrast between nationalists and optimists was especially pro­ nounced in comparisons of the kemp and buchanan 1996 presidential campaigns. kemp's standard stump speech urged the gop to be the party of lincoln, a biblical good shepherd for every sheep. he noted that unemployment in american ghettoes was so high as to justify not only riots, but also "the french revolution, the russian revolution" (c­ span 1992). he saw capitalism as so good that the poor needed to be part of it. he typically urged his (usually all white) audiences to remem­ ber that blacks had the same aspirations for their children. once, when a hand-shaker urged kemp to consider bob dole for vice-president, he answered "how about colin powell?" (c-span 1992). republican ac­ tivists in virginia in the months after the 1992 election distributed kemp­ powell buttons (c-span 1992; interview 1). kemp campaigned against the anti-illegal immigrant proposition 187 in california and dropped out of the gop presidential race after it passed. in sharp contrast, pat buchanan's 1995 announcement for president denounced moral decay, the crimes of illegal aliens, and the greed of such (jewish named) compa­ nies as goldman-sachs that gave executives huge bonuses while laying off 2,000 clerks (c-span 1995). accordingly, we predict that: 56 h4: support for nafta and immigration will be directly related to support jar powell. optimists and nationalists can be likened to the libertarian and popu­ list currents in mass ideology described by maddox and lilie (1984). like optimists, libertarians favor less government regulation in both the eco­ nomic and social-cultural spheres of life. libertarians also tend to be younger, better educated, and relatively optimistic. in contrast popu­ lists are pessimistic about human nature and want a strong government, both to control business and social morality and to protect the working class. populists are older, poorer, less educated, more skeptical about programs aiding african-americans, and less trusting generally (maddox and lilie 1984; uslaner 2002). . maddox and lilie suggest that as of 1982, populists and libertarians could be found in substantial numbers in each party, unlike liberals and conselvatives. suggesthl.g thal populist-nationalist dem.ocrats are inore likely to believe in social control,. to stereotype others, and to hold rela­ tively authoritarian views may explain the surprising findings of sniderman et al (1993) that stereotypes about african-americans were strongly re­ lated to welfare policy views for economic liberals, but not for economic conservatives. while conservatives oppose assistance for anyone, high ste­ reotyping liberals oppose assistance targeted to blacks. perhaps these sup­ posed "liberals" are in fact the populist-nationalists discussed above: eco­ nomically liberal but socially conservative or even authoritarian. thus: h5: support for powell will be inversely related to populism. procedure sniderman and piazza's findings are based on california and ken­ tucky surveys focusing on racial issues. we have partly replicated sniderman and piazza's measures of racial stereotyping and authoritar­ ian values using two surveys. our racism survey focuses on racial ste­ reotyping and affirmative action, though it also includes a few general questions about political attitudes. our politics survey uses an embed­ ded design in which a few race-oriented questions are embedded within a broader survey of political attitudes. the following analyses use ques­ tions from the politics survey, except tests of hi (tables 2-3), which pool the data sets.2 we conducted a phone survey of pennsylvania's 15th u.s. house dis­ trict (the lehigh valley and surrounding area) from june 15 to novem­ ber 30, 1994. respondents were normally called three times before being counted as refusals or four times before being categorized as unreach­ able. the household and household member to be interviewed were selected randomly (lavrakos 1992). of the 753 households contacted, 55 57 were unable to participate due to inability to speak english or poor hear­ ing. three hundred and seventy of the remaining 698 potential subjects completed the survey, for a 53% completion rate. of the 370 individuals surveyed, 350 (94%) are included in the analyses that follow.3 of the 350, 187 completed the politics survey and 163 completed the racism survey. as table 1 shows, sample demographics resembled those for the 15th district as a whole as reported from barone and ujifusa (1993,1113). table 1 comparing lhe sample with the 15th u.s. house district attributes sample 15th district median household income $30-45,000 $33,049 percent white 94 92 percent over age 64 16 15 percent w / college degree 36 37 percent, who, in 1992, voted for clinton-bush-perot 41-43-16 41-37-22 forty percent of survey respondents report being democrats and 38% call themselves republican. official registration figures for the district show democrats with 56% of the two party registration total, though registered independents tend to think of themselves as republicans. this is particularly true of the many recent immigrants from new jersey, an open primary state. many of the newcomers came to escape high taxes, high housing costs, and crime. in addition, as explained below, lehigh valley democrats increasingly vote republican (interview 2). the lehigh valley is an interesting area in which to study the inter­ section of race, class, and politics. the area is overwhelmingly white but ethnically diverse. it was originally settled by british and german im­ migrants whose descendants still make up more than half the popula­ tion. in the late 19th and early 20th centuries came waves of irish, ital­ ian, . and eastern european immigrants. survey respondents are 36% catholic, 55% protestant, and 1% jewish. immigrants worked in such large manufacturing industries as bethlehem steel, dixie cup, and mack trucks. these heavy industries hit hard times in the study period, mak­ ing nafta a significant political issue. despite economic change, job­ lessness was near the national average, with new industries moving in from new york and new jersey. in addition, many factory workers (or their children) moved down interstates 78 and 81 to the sun belt. still, 58 the valley remained heavily blue collar and 25% rural, with politically significant unions, gun and sportsmen's groups, und ethnic clubs. the district had 78,000 veterans, and military issues often figured in local politics. then us. representative paul mchale, a democrat, upset re­ publican incumbent don ritter in 1992 in part by emphasizing his mili­ tary record. in its heavy industry days the district elected democratic us. house members from 1932 to 1978, when ritter upset a longtime incumbent. later congressional races were closely contested. the dis­ trict was democratic in state and local elections through the 1970s, but since then it has trended republican because of cold war issues, eco­ nomic changes, and migration from new jersey. while hubert humphrey beat richard nixon by a 50% to 46% margin in 1968, george mcgovern could manage only 40% in 1972. jimmy carter won the district with 52% in 1976, but ronald reagan beat carter by 50% to 39% in 1980. george bush won 55% in 1988, but in a bad local economy in 1992 he lost to clinton 41 % to 37%, with perot winning 22%.4 at the same time, from 1982 to 1994 the gop narrowed 'the two party registration edge from 63% to 37% to 56% to 44%. many of the 15th's democrats are considered "god and country" or "reagan democrats" who vote republican nationally on cultural and defense issues but have ethnic and economic links to the democratic party and tend democratic for local offices. al­ though democrats are a plurality in our survey, 51 % of respondents con­ sider themselves conservative-35% liberal. indeed, the presence of so many reagan democrats led the clinton campaign to conduct focus groups in allentown before the 1992 democratic convention.5 despite the local losses for bush and u.s. representative ritter in 1992, the gop continued its gains in the area. in 1986 democrats held 14 of the lehigh valley's 15 state house seats, and all three major city mayor's offices (allentown, bethlehem, easton). as of 1994, gop mayors ran the three cities and republicans held 12 of 15 house seats (barone and ujifusa, 1975, 1981, 1983, 1989, 1993; interview 2). while economic and national issues seemingly dominated area voting behavior, race also may have had an impact. overwhelmingly white, the lehigh valley has grown more diverse. hispanics, african-americans, and a~ian americans made up 8% of the population in the study period, and they were even more in the three major cities. downtown allentown and easton were widely perceived as unsafe because of ethnic minorities. '!he dominant local newspaper gave substantial coverage (often includ­ ing photos) to crimes committed by ethnic minorities and to moves to make allentown an "english only" city (lehigh valley morning call 1995). in addition, most valley residents watch new york and philadelphia tele­ vision. further, as kinder and mendelberg (1995) find, racial isolation actl1ally f'nhancf's the impact of prejudice on white opinion. similarly; 59 diolu1e (1991, 88) recalls nixon campaign speeches denouncing urban crime and welfare dependency in such places as new hampshire. an area need not have "urban" problems to see minorities as a threat. in­ deed such appeals work best in white rural areas long fearful of all man­ ner of urban evils (hofstadter 1964). the lehigh valley had an active klavern and neo-nazi groups, one of which came into prominence when two brothers in the group killed their religious, racially tolerant parents and younger brother. a local republican political consultant maintained that it was difficult for african-americans to win election in the lehigh valley, though colin powell might be the one exception (interview 2).6 in short, while overwhelmingly white, the lehigh valley is an inter­ esting place to study whites' willingness to vote for african-americans. its economic and social transitions and social conservatism make it a good place to look for authoritarian and populist tendencies in ameri­ can politics. testing the hypotheses as table 2 shows, hypothesis 1 is consistent with the data. colin powell would have been a serious presidential candidate, essentially ty­ ing then-senate majority leader robert dole as the first gop choice among lehigh valley voters, with 23% to dole's 25%. powell led all other gop contenders as a second choice and in combined (first and second place) support. of course, one might suspect that as a nonparti­ san figure powell will have more support among democrats than other "table 2 support for powell and other gop candidates in a hypothetical presidential primary candidales percenl percent percents chosen listing listing combined* dole 25 13 20 kemp 18 14 16 quayle 8 8 8 buchanan 2 4 3 powell 23 22 23 gramm 3 3 3 other / refuse 22 35 100% 100% n=100 n=100 ~du~:; nut ~yudllil~dll of flrsllwo l:uluuuls u~l:ause of differenl num­ bers of missing cases. 60 table 3 percent listing powell as a preferred 1996 gop presidential candidate by party. respondent self-rating democrat independent republican views of powell strong weak weak strong* does not list powell 63 69 66 52 66 powell listed as second gop choice 14 13 20 17 19 powell listed as first gop choice 24 19 14 31 15 total percentage 100a 100a 100 100 100 x2(8) =7.75,)2=.46 n=335 * total candidatp pf'r('pnta8f'~ in this table are greater than in table 2 since this table combines two variables (first and second choice) for individual cases: it is additive rather than a mean. a actual percentages add to 100; there is slight inflation in the table due to rounding error. gop contenders can muster. in fact, this is not the case. as table 3 shows, relationships with party are not statistically significant. powell seemingly appealed most to weak republicans, 48% of whom list him as either their first or second choice. only 34% of strong repub­ licans and 36% of the sample as a whole do suo sl.rong rt:publil.:aiu::i pre­ ferred more partisan candidates. yet we found no clear tendency for powell supporters to back him less against clinton. on the politics sur­ vey respondents were asked whether, if the election were held today, they would vote for president clinton or for their favorite republican. those who choose powell as their first choice break 63% to 37% for powell; those choosing other gop candidates support them by 75% to 25% mar­ gins, but the differences do not approach statistical significance in the small sample, x2(5)=4.01, ns. naturally those unwilling to choose a re­ publican backed president clinton. in short, hi is supported. in investigating the other hypotheses, we first examine zero-order cor­ relations bel ween powell suppurt ami hyputhe:::;i~ed preuidun;; affir­ mative action (h2), authoritarianism (h3), nafta and immigration sup­ port (h4), and populism (h5). in addition, we examine the correlations 61 table 4 zero-order correlations between powell support and hypothesized predictors by education level education level hypothesized no college college or more predictor r n r n a uthoritarian scale .02 75 .26 *** 97 support for affirmative action -.02 77 .08 96 conservative ideology -.08 83 .05 101 anti-immigration -.17 85 .17 100 , pro-nafta -.03 83 .25 ** 99 pro-defense spending .10 84 -.03 101 populism scale .01 85 .23 ** 101 n=85 n=101 **}2<.05, ***}2<.ol between powell support and two other variables less relevant to our hypotheses, ideology and defense spending. we present correlations separately for those with no college and those with some college or above (see table 4) since attitude constraint is strongly related to education (devine 1970). sniderman and piazza (1993) and uslaner (2002) find education inversely related to authoritarianism. in addition, as popkin (1991) notes, issues important to the more atten­ tive public in the year before a campaign may become important to the less attentive in the months of a campaign; thus issue relationships among more educated respondents now may predict those among the less edu­ cated in the 1996 campaign season. for both groups, there are no relationships between support for powell and general ideology, defense spending, and affirmative action. (items are available on request at robert.maranto@villanova.edu.) low educa­ ti'on respondents show no relationships between support for powell and measures of authoritarianism, populism, and nafta. for both educa­ tion groups, those opposing (legal) immigration are somewhat less likely to support powell, though the relationship attains statistical significance only when the two groups are combjned for a higher n, £(186)=-.18,12=.02. high education respondents show statistically significant relationships 62 table 5 zero-order correlations between powell support and hypothesized predictors by respondent party respondent party hypothesized democrat republican predictor r n r n authoritarian scale -.10 59 -.23 *72 support for affirmative action .01 59 .03 76 conservative ideology -.07 62 .02 81 anti-immigration -.27 ** 63 -.04 81 pro-nafta .28 ** 61 .11 78 pro-defense spending -.04 61 .04 81 populism scale -.03 63 -.20 * 81 n=63 n=81 *~ <.08, **~<.05 between support for powell and authoritarianism, populism, and nafta. more authoritariah, populist respondents who oppose free trade and immigration are less likely to support powell. in short, correlations tend to support h2, h3, and h4, and h5, at least for the educated. affirma­ tive action support does not predict support for powell, but support for nafta and (po~~ihly) immigration do. gt>nf>ral idt>ology dof'~ not prf'­ diet support for powell relative to other gop candidates, nor does de­ fense spending, but authoritarianism and populism do. as table 5 shows, presenting powell support correlations by party tells a somewhat different story. of the hypothesized variables, for demo­ crats, only nafta and immigration have statistically significant rela­ tionships with powell support. for republicans, authoritarianism and populism are nearly significant at .05, with i2.-values of .054 and .078, respectively. in short, realistic group conflict variables influence white democratic support; the ideological variables of authoritarianism and populism seem to affect white republican support. thus, the zero-order correlations strongly support h2, work for h3 and perhaps h5 with re­ publicans, and support h4 for democrats. zero-order correlations only examine the relationship between the pre­ c1irtor variable ;:mcl powpl1 ~ljpport without "'lm1l1t;.mf'o1j~ly ("ontmlhn8 63 table 6a final hierarchical multiple regression summary table for less educated respondents. predictor variables b seb beta t-test sig. t affirmative action -.005 .en -.05 -.33 .742 authoritarian scale .006 .01 .06 .46 .645 pro-nafta .009 .03 .04 .27 .785 anti-immigration -.05 .04 -.18 -1.37 .177 populism scale -.05 .10 -.07 -.47 .640 constant .87 .80 1.09 .281 multiple r=.18354 r2=.034, e(5,63)=.44 , p=.82 for other relationships. we used a hierarchical multiple regression to determine the pattern of powell support with each predictor variable while taking into account its relationship with other predictors. we en­ tered predictor variables in the following order: affirmative action, authoritarianism, nafta, immigration, and populism. affirmative ac­ tion was entered first to test h2 and authoritarianism was entered on the second step to test h3. next, views on specific issues were entered, to see if they added explanatory power over and above the first two (more general) pred.iclors. finally, pupulblll ~cure::; were entered last tu ::;ee if they added any explanation, over and above the other predictors, which are better established in the literature. this hierarchical multiple regression was run for four separate subsamples: respondents with high school education or less (table 6a), those with some college or more (table 6b), democrats (table 6c), and republicans (table 6d). tables present the betas and tests for individual significance after all variables have been entered into the equation. al­ though the tables show different patterns for these subsamples, indicat­ ing the necessity of splitting up the sample, lack of power is a problem due to small n's. however, multicollinearity is not a problem, as predic­ tors' intercorrelations never reach .3 and are seldom significant. as table 6a indicates, for less educated respondents powell support is not significantly related to any predictors by the end of the analysis. none of the e-values for the r2 change approached significance at any step-though immigration comes closest-indicating that powell sup­ port was not related to predictor variables at any step. 64 table 6b final hierarchical multiple regression summary table for respondents with some college and above. predictor variables b seb beta t-test sig. t affirmative action -.005 .01 -.04 -.43 .666 authoritarian scale -.02 .01 -.22 -2.16 .034 pro-nafta .08 .03 .25 2.55 .0l3 anti-immigration -.03 .03 -.09 -.85 .397 populism scale -.19 .08 -.25 -2.44 .017 constant 1.81 .58 3.14 .002 multiple r=.43261 r2=.18715 e(5,87)=4.00, 12=.00 table 6b tells a more interesting story for the better-educated respon­ dents. affirmative action was not significant at step i, but the r2 change of .063 was significant for authoritarianism at step 2, e(2,90)=6.09, 12=.016. nafta views, entered on the third step, also accounted for a significant increase in r2 change of .057, e(3,89)=5.8, ]2.=.018. immigration (step 4) was non-significant, but populism scores, entered last, accounted a defi­ nite r2 change of .055, £(5,87)=5.95, 12=.017. the £ for the final equation was highly significant, f(5,87)~4.01, 12-~.003. democrats, portrayed in table 6c show very little predictability in supporting powell. the one variable that indicated a significant r2 change was nafta, entered on step 3, e(1,54)=2.06, 12=.05. immigration had the next highest t, but did quite not reach significance, £(1,54)=-1.52, }2.=.14. the f for the overall equation at that step was not significant; neither was the final equation with all five predictors entered.7 table 6d shows that for the republican subsample affirmative action is not significant but authoritarianism is. when authoritarianism was entered at step 2, it led to a significant r2 change of .05, e (1,66)=3.95, }2.=.051. the other significant predictor is populism, entered last, which results in an r2 change of .058, with e (1,66)=4.19, .12=.045. discussion: not quite color blind survey results must be interpreted with caution. saying that one will vote for an african-american candidate and actually doing so are differ­ ent things. 8 for our findings in particular, the small n of cases limit the 65 table 6c final hierarchical multiple regression summary table for democrat respondents predictor variables b seb beta t-test sig. t affirmative action -.01 .02 -.09 -.64 .527 authoritarian scale .002 .01 .02 .17 .865 pro-nai'ta .09 .04 .28 2.06 .045 anti-immigration -.07 .04 -.21 -1.52 .136 populism scale -.13 .12 -.15 -1.08 .285 constant 1.09 .84 1.29 .202 multiple r=.37049 r2=.136, £:(5,50)=1.59, 12=.18 power of analyses. further, the sheer prestige of colin powell may limit our ability to apply findings for less prominent african-american candi­ dates. still, our findings accord with a growing literature examining the determinants of growing white support for african-american politicians. results suggest that had he run, colin powell would have been a formi­ dable presidential candidate. at the time of our survey, in a "reagan democrat" area, powell was essentially in a first place tie among white voters with then senate majority leader and eventual 1996 republican nominee robert dole. further, in contrast to bloom (1995) but in line with the findings of sniderman and piazza (1993), powell support was not generally linked to support for affirmative action. perhaps actual candidates, as opposed to experimental simulations, can overcome ra­ cial stereotypes-at least up to a point. still, race matters. for better-educated respondents and for republicans, authoritarianism and populism inversely correlated with support for powelp this finding seemingly counters sniderman et al's (1993) findings that race related views have more impact on democratic than on republi­ can opinion when considering "liberal" issues like welfare. yet our finding .complements theirs in that powell-a black republican candidate-may provide more inconsistent cues for high stereotyping republicans than for high stereotyping democrats. in other words, the minority candidate's ideology, like the nexus of issue and party noted by sniderman et al (1993), could moderate the impact of racial beliefs on political behavior. for democrats, support for nafja and immigration was associated with in­ creased powell support, suggesting {he utility of realistic group coriflicl models in 66 table 6d final hierarchical multiple regression summary table for republican respondents predictor variables b seb beta t-test sig. t affirmative action -.04 .ul .uu2 .u2 .987 authoritarian scale -.03 .01 -.26 -2.10 .039 pro-nafta .03 .04 .09 .73 .468 anti-immigration -.008 .05 -.02 -.18 .861 populism scale -.19 .09 -.27 -2.05 .045 constant 2.14 .77 2.77 .007 multiple r=.36768 r2=.135, e(5,62)=1.94, j2=.10 explaining democratic support. our finding is somewhat consistent with mclauren (1995) who found that holding democratic norms increases benevolence towards non-f,uropean immigrants in several european countries. these trends may re­ flect the self-perceived economic vulnerability of white working class democratic constituencies. in short, ideological variables seem best to explain republican sup­ port for powell; for democrats, group conflict variables hold more promise. our finding that populism predicts powell support for republicans and higher educated respondents shows the potential of a populist-lib­ ertarian dimension for explaining racial attitudes and voting behavior. while widely used by political consultants, this dimension is rarely ad­ dressed in the voting behavior literature and needs more research. for instance, determining whether the basis for populism lies more in an authoritarian democrat or a working class liberal faced with realistic group conflict would provide much needed construct validation. this should be a topic of future research. the failure of party and general ideology to explain powell support compared to the success of authoritarianism, populism, and nafta sug­ gests that, as sniderman and piazza show, political scientists should not confuse conservatism with racism. similarly, researchers should he mme' attentive to issue dimensions cutting across the conventionalliberal-con­ servative continuum. finally, researchers must pay heed to the context of issues for different populations. in particular, for losers in the market­ place, realistic group conflict models may have more impact. in short, race still matters, though in a more complex manner than in the past. 67 notes 1. at the 1995 gridiron dinner in washington (at which congress members and others hold skits), both the democratic and republican presidential race skits featured a powell look-alike adorned with medals and a halo, introduced with "colin powell, superstar" to the tune of "jesus christ, superstar" (c-span, "washington journal," march 27, 1995). 2. we expected the embedded design to yield ditierent responses on contro­ versial racial issues. in fact it did not, so questions used in both surveys can be pooled for analysis. 3. minority respondents included 4 asians, 4 blacks, 6 hispanics, 1 native american, 3 multi-racial, and 13 don't know i refuse. the 6 hispanics and 1 na­ tive american were included with the 343 whites in all subsequent analyses. 4. perot had a strong local organization. in the 1994 house election, patriot party (perot) candidate vic mazziotti took 5%. since first term incumbent paul mchale won by only 400 vote~ uut of 150,000 casl and the adiculale mazziotti ran as a fiscal conservative, many local gop activists felt that mazziotti kept the party from picking up a house seat. clinton was perceived as unpopular in the di~trkt, partil:ularly ,hllong velelans, gun owners, seniol" citizens still resenting the 1960s, and catholics concerned with social issues. local gop candidates sought to tie local democrats to clinton in 1994, and did well (interview 2). 5. at one of these focus groups an allentown woman complained of clinton's credibility, saying, "if you asked him his favorite color, he'd say plaid" (inter­ view 2). in response, the clinton campaign carefully crafted the candidate's per­ sonal image in the pre-convention days to emphasize his humble background and arkansas roots. 6. similarly; in oux interactions with local political activists of both parties, one often hears that it is hard for women to win in the valley, sometimes fol­ lowed by remarks such as "i think people here might be ready for that now." female politicians of both parties see sexism as an obstacle. the local state legis­ lative delegation of 19 has not included more than three women. a notable ex­ ception was longtime state senator jeanette reibman, a liberal democrat who stressed her strong family and national rif1p a~~oriat1on mf'mbpr~hlp. 7. the same hierarchical regression run for independents had an n of only 34; no predictors were significant at any time. 8. indeed, as the 1989 douglas wilder-marshall coleman race for virginia gov­ ernor showed, whites commonly lie in exit polls about their willingness to vote for black candidates so as not to appear racist -even though some may in fact be racist. (we encountered this phenomenon while doing election night comn'1.entary on a virginia radio station-,-pollsters predicted a wilder landslide, not a 1 % triumph.) this is as good an argument as any for the utility of modem racism research. 9. this correlation may be described best by saying that low authoritarians are more likely to vote for powell, given the high support of powell among the typical category for libertarians weak republicans (see table 3). 68 references allport, gordon w. 1954. the nature of prejudice. garden city: barone, michael and grant ujifusa. (1976; 1981; 1983; 1989; 1993). almanac of american politics. washington: national journal bloom, joel david. 1995. ii a wolf in wolf's clothing: the return of overt rac­ ism in the 1992 national election studies." paper presented at the annual midwest political science association convention in chicago, april 6-8. bobo, lawrence. 1988. "group conflict, prejudice, and the paradox of contem­ porary racial attitudes." in eliminating r.acism, ed. phyllis a. katz and uatmas a. taylor. new york: plenum press. buckley, william f., jr. 1992. in search of anti-semitism. new york: continuum. c-span. 1992. "road to the white house." december 13. __ . 1995. "road to the white house." march 26. devine, donald j. 1970. the attentive public: polyarchical democracy. chicago: rand mcnally. dionne, e.j., jr. 1991. why americans hate politics. new york: simon and schuster. elliason, maura. "all things considered." march 31, 1995. fritzsche, peter. 1990. rehearsals for fascism. new york: oxford university press. frum, david. 1994. dead right. new york: basic books. gresham, april w., jinhui yun, undeilccn lcucy. 1995. "origins of modern racism: protestant work ethic or blatant prejudice." poster presented at the annual convention of the eastern psychological association, boston, march. interview 1. november 9, 1994 with a virginia political consultant. interview 2. march 30,1994 with a lehigh valley political consultant. hagen, michael g. 1995. "encoded references to racial issues." paper pre­ ~f>ntpd at the annual midwest political science association convention in chicago, april 6-8. hofstadter, richard. 1964. anti-intellectualism in american life. new york: vin­ tage. kinder, donald r., and tali mendelberg. 1995. "cracks in american apartheid: the political impact of prejudice among desegregated whites," joumal of politics 57 (2): 402-24. lavrakos, paul, jr. 1992. telephone survey methods. applied social research methods series, vol. 7. newbury park: sage. lehigh valley morning call. 1995. may 30, may 31, and june 2. lind, michael. 1993. "aliens among us: the new right's new gambit on immi­ gration," the new republic, august 23, 22-23. maddox, william s., and stuart a. lilie. 1984. beyond liberal and conservative. washington: cato institute. mcconahay, j.b. 1986. "modem racism, ambivalence, and the modern racism scale." in prejudice, discrimination, and racism, ed. i.e dovidio & s.l. gaertner. san diego, ca: academic press. mclauren, lauren. 1995. "individual, contextual, and cultural explanations of support for the rights of immigrants in western europe." paper presented at the annual midwest political science association convention in chicago, april 6-8. 69 popkin, samuel l. 1992. the reasoning voter. chicago: university of chicago press. raum, tom. 1994. "polls find people would pick powell as next president," lehigh valley morning call, september 12, all. schuman, howard, charlotte steeh, and lawrence bobo. 1985. racial attitudes in america. cambridge: harvard university press. sears, david o. 1988. "symbolic racism." in eliminating racism, ed. phyllis a. katz and dalmas a. taylor. new york: plenum press. sigelman, carol k, lee sigelman, barbara j. walkos, and michael nitz. 1995. "black candidates, white voters: understanding racial bias in political per­ ceptions," american journal of political science 39 (february): 243-65. sniderman, paul m., edward g. carmines, philip e. tetlock, and anthony m. tyler. 1993. "the asymmetry of race as a political issue: prejudice, political ideology, and the structure of american politics." presented at the american political science association convention 1ll washington, d.c. and thomas piazza. 1993. the scar of race. cambridge: belknap. sonenshein, raphael j. 1990. "can black candidates win statewide election?" pulitical science quarterly. 105 (2): 219-241. __ . 1993. politics in black and white. princeton: princeton university press. thernstrom, stephen, and abigail themstrom. 1997. america in black and white. new york: touchstone. uslaner, eric m. (2002, forthcoming). the moral foundations of trust. cambridge: cambridge university press. vidanage, sharmaine, and david smrt:;. 1995. "the fuundations of public opinion toward immigration: self-interest, group conflict or symbolic politics?" paper presented at the annual midwest political science association convention in chi­ cago, april 6-8. williams, linda. 1990. "white/black perceptions of the electability of black political candidates," nationazpolitical science review 2: 145-64. woodward, bob. 1991. the commanders. new york: simon & schuster. 70 ó looking back on the legislative modernization movement in pennsylvania: remarks of herbert fineman, former speaker of the pennsylvania house of representatives, given at the annual meeting of the pennsylvania political science association, april 4, 2003 at villanova university, (with introduction and commentary by michael cassidy) on april 4, 2003 the pennsylvania political science association (ppsa) hosted a roundtable discussion on "the legislative modernization movement in pennsylvania: a look back at the 1960s and the 1970s." the panel included herbert finemun, furmer speuker uf the perm:;ylvuniu huu:;,e uf repre::;entu­ tives. fineman appeared with franklin kury, a prominent harrisburg lobbyist andformer deputy attorney general, house member, and state senator known for his authorship of landmark public utility regulatory reform and environ­ mental protection legislation in the 1970s. the panel also included rutgers uni­ versity professor alan rosenthal, the author of numerous books on state legisla­ tures and a key advisor to state legislatures and national legislative leadership organizations. fineman was the featured speaker. his prepared remarks were followed by commentsfrom the other panelists. known as the 'father of the modern pennsylvania legislature" and the ii ar­ chitect of legislative reform," speaker fineman was first elected to the house of representatives in 1954 and was elected to the democratic caucus leadership as whip in 1965. he served as the democratic floor leader from 1967 to 1968 and from 1973 to 1974. he was speaker from 1969 to 1972 and from 1975 to 1977 (pennsylvania house ]ounial 1994; pennsylvania house of representatives homepage 2003). fineman's tenure in the house was timed perfectly to allow him to partici­ pate in the nationwide legislatlve reform movement. the first major concerns about the inadequacies of twentieth century state legislatures were expressed around the time of fineman '5 first election to the house (heard 1966a, 1-4). the movement for legislative 111.odernization was strongest nationally from 1965 to 1980, corresponding closely with fineman's service in house leadership posi­ tions (rosenthal 1998, 49). during his time as leader, fineman rose to promi­ nence in the national reform movement and led pennsylvania's modemizatio11 efforts. he shared the goals of that movement and helped shape its proposals. political scientists generally described these goals in terms of the basic functions of the legislative branch: representation, lawmaking, and oversight. thus, re87 formers wanted to provide legislators ,[pith the tools to perform their representa­ tional function, enable them to independently formulate public policy, and em­ power the legislature as a co-equal branch of government (herzberg and rosenthal 1971 , ni-7jii; kpp,.fp 1966, 37-47; 1971, 187). legislative practitioners just wanted to build the "competence to meet problems of our society where they arise" (margolis 1971, 25-27). in his presentation to the ppsa, speaker fi11eman described the need, moti­ vation, challenge, and scope of the reform movement that completely transformed the legislative institution in pennsylvania. his remarks are reprinted here in full. the commentary that follows is intended to describe pennsylvania's reform efforts in more detail, to place them in their national context, and to amplify fineman's remarks with some of the comments made by the other panelists. remarks of speaker herbert fineman 1 w('ls fhst elected to the pennsylvania house of representatives for the term commencing in 1955, and i continued to serve consecutive terms thereafter for a period of 22 years. during that long tour of duty, i expe­ rienced the maturing of the pennsylvania house of representatives from a totally ineffective, non-analytical, non-originating, non-constituency­ oriented organ of state government to an entity that in 1977 was well on its way to becoming that which had been envisioned by the framers of our state constitution an equal coordinate branch of government. prior to the onset of structural and procedural reform in the pelu1syl­ vania house of representatives, its primary role had been merely to give its automatic stamp of approval to whatever proposals came forth from the office of the state's chief executive. the fact is that the house of rep­ resentatives existed, not because of any contribution it was making to state government or its people, but rather because article i of the consti­ tution of 1790 provided that "the legislative power of this commonwealth shall be vested in a general assembly, which shall consist of a senate and a house of representatives." the physical facilities of house mem­ bers were totally in consonance with the house's meaningless status. we had no offices, we had no telephones, we had no file cabinets, we had no desks except that which was assigned to us on the floor of the house chambers, we had no place to meet with constituents who might come to· the capitol, and no regular secretarial service and we were being paid the grand total of $3,000 per annum. i must, in all candor, admit that as a newly elected member to the house in 1955, i was not immediately able to discern the vastness of those shortcomings. i had been so enamored of the fact that, as an unendorsed candidate, i had been elected to the pennsylvania house of representa­ tives and additionally was so awe-struck by the beauty of the house cham­ ber itself, that a dear vision or perspective of the then role of the house of 88 representatlves in state government did not manifest itself to me. as the years passed, however, and i was able to assume roles of lead­ ership, the myopia cleared and there slowly arose within me a very strong desire to be part of an effort to bring the house to that status of being an equal coordinate branch of government. i knew that this was a result that could ensue only if the house could independently, with its own research resources and information, begin to analyze the changing mani­ festations and complexities of state government responsibilities, to more clearly discern the escalating needs of our citizenry, and to create pro­ posals to meet those challenges. these ends had to be pursued, not through reliance upon the governor, lobbying organizations, or other sources, which was so much the case then, but rather through our own analysis and research efforts. only in this manner would the judgments to be concluded by us be independently arrived at. this would necessi­ tate research facilities and staff expertise as well as necessary physical accommodations and appropriate member compensation, all of which would be in consonance with the deep needs of the house. and so we embarked on that endeavor. when i first became the democratic floor leader in 1967, i sought to engage, for the initial time, gualified pru[et;t;iuiliil pert;unnel for my of­ fice and those of other officers of the democratic caucus. subsequently, in 1969 when i was elected speaker, we also engaged staff for all commit­ tee chairmen. it was made emmently clear to all chairmen, however, that those to be employed were not to be political patronage appointees, but rather the most able' personnel available. these included researchers, at­ torneys, communication personnel, legislative analysts, and administra­ tive assistants. in due course, personnel were also made available for all members. the real surge in reform efforts took place commencing in the 1969-70 session. at least 13 new procedural changes were initiated during that period, including: • creation of an ethics committee • reduction in the number of house standing committees from 33 to 21 • an increase in minority representation on each committee (from a 13-6 distribution to 14-9) to reflect more accurately the division of the house between majority and minority • limitation on the power of a committee chairman to kill a legis­ lative proposal, either by not calling a meeting or by failing to submit a legislative proposal to the committee for consideration • installation of a vote lock system to ensure against absentee voting • opening of all col1unillee llleetingt; lu the public • installation of a fiscal note system assessing the cost, on both a 89 one-year and a five-year basis, of every legislative proposal on the calendar so that house members and the public were more fully informed as to costs prior to enactment • establishment of orientation sessions for all new members • creation of a legislative audit advisory commission • employment of public hearings on legislation • synopsis of every bill reported to the calendar for members and the press thus, the year 1969 was truly the real starting point of reform in the pennsylvania house of representatives. in subsequent years, we further provided for the establishment of a commonwealth compensation com­ mission. i have already noted that legislative compensation in 1955 was $3,000; today a legislator earns $64,638 per annum plus expenses. in a span of 48 years base legislative salaries have increased a total of $61,638. since 1995 salaries have been tied to a cost-of-living basis .. we also held a greater number of public hearings throughout the com­ monwealth, provided for public televising of house sessions and public hearings, provided for the auditing of legislative accounts by independent public accounting firms, and made such audits available to the public. one of the 11,me important legislalive iiuluvatium; was initiated in 1976 when we created the legislative office for research liaison, known as l.o.r.l. this office was created to make the knowledge and expertise of the commonwealth's uruversities in scientitic and technical matters available to legislators on social, physical, and life sciences. originally, six schools participated in this program. today, at least 20 do. the continuing installation of procedural reform was of vital impor­ tance in enabling legislators to be more effective in discharging their vary­ ing responsibilities, which include acting as a representative of and spokesman for the needs and desires of constituents; serving as an om­ budsman where injustices occur because of official red tape, rules, and regulations; being an iimovalor and inilialol of il(;!w prugrams; and exer­ cising legislative oversight functions. while it is true that organizational structures and legislative proce­ dures are important to the quality of legislative performance, procedural ref.orm in and of itself does not automatically yield more efficient and more effective state government. nor should a legislature be judged solely on the basis of its procedural mechanisms and facilities, as the citizens conference on state legislatures had done at one time. rather, it should be judged by how well it represents the heterogeneous population of pennsylvania and by the quality of its legislative output. to do other­ wise would be much like evaluating a football team by the quality of the stadium it plays in, or the kiml uf lucker room facilities or equipment that are provided, or the uniforms that are furnished. the best equipped 90 team is not always. the best performer. the constitutional convention that penned the u.s. constitution and the early congresses of the na­ tional e;ovf'rnmf'nt w()ulo inof'f'o r<'ltf' vf'ry l()w in tf'rm~ ()f f<'lcilities ;mo organizational structures, but what they produced has endured and served us well for over 200 years. resources most certainly are important and vital, but they are not the entire story. conceivably, legislatures that have little may use that little very well, and legislatures that have much may use what they have poorly. what matters is the degree of commitment to the tasks at hand, and the spirit and dedication with which those tasks are undertaken. i believe that the benefits of procedural reform, coupled with the enthusiasm for the tasks at hand that may be engendered by legislative leaders, can to­ gether make the legislatures true laboratories of democracy. commentary on speaker fineman's remarks by michael cassidy if herbert fineman had not been a panelist on the ppsa roundtable on legislative modernization, whoever was on the panel would inevita­ bly discuss herb fineman's crucial role in pennsylvania's efforts and his substantial contribution to the national effort, which he omitted from his remarks. of course, fineman was not solely responsible for legislative reform and modernization in pennsylvania. there were others like judge robert e. woodside, author james michener, lv1ellon charitable trust president theodore hazlett, jr., and former governors george leader, william scranton, ,and raymond shafer. other legislative leaders also played important roles, especially k. leroy irvis, james j. manderino, and matthew ryan, all of whom served with fineman and would follow him as speaker. state senate leaders, such as former senate president pro tempore henry hager, also were important. but for the 11 years be­ tween 1967 and 1977, fineman was the main force and catalyst for legis­ lative modernization as he alternately served as democratic floor leader and speaker. he was the chief point of contact with the national reform movement and the leader with the power (sometimes unilateral) to ini~ hate change in pennsylvania. it is obvious from his remarkr that fineman's major, but not exclu­ sive, focus was internal capacity building described early in the reform movement by donald herzberg as the "six s's," i.e. "improved staff, ser­ vices, space, salaries, sessions and spirit" (heard 1966b, 159; rosenthal 1998,50-54). decades later, herb fineman still would be remembered for his insistence on upgrading the working conditions of the members of the general at;sembly. at; hout;e democratic flour leader ivan itkin said on june 7, 1994 at the unveiling of fineman's portrait in the state capitol building, fineman "gave lawmakers the tools they needed to compre­ hend the issues that crossed their desks." "in fact,'" itkin added, fineman 91 "gave them the desks and offices in the first place." matthew ryan, then republican floor leader and a former speaker, commented on what fineman's national role in the reform movement meant to pennsylvania: it wclb hero who cuuld be caught researching a new initiative or exchanging sought-after innovative ideas from lawmakers na­ tionwide. when herb fineman went to ncsl (national confer­ ence of state legislatures) or one of the other national legislative leadership meetings, it was not as junketeer. he went as an of­ ficer of that group, he went as a player, as a man who was going there to contribute to that organization and to take he was a taker. he took the ideas of the other states and brought them back to pennsylvania and really helped to modernize und muke this house and the senate would steal our ideas and this general legislature better because of what he brought back from these other states, and other states better because of what they got from him. speaker h. william deweese summarized the testimonials given that day by thanking fineman for his "legacy of modernization" (pennsylva­ nia house journal 1994, 1067-1073). it is difficult lo overestimale lhe impurtcljll:e uf the rnuderni:.gatiun ef­ fort on the way legislators and their institution function. former senator franklin kury described his participation in the 2003 ppsa panel as ii what lawyers call a i competent witness'" to institutional changes in the legisla­ ture. kury recalled that when elected to the house in 1966, he had little or no staff support or even regular access to phones to make long distance calls. he recounted how there was no staff to help explain bills in caucus meetings or to provide independent analysis of the governor's budget request. even basic secretarial services were scarce. but some members like kury had an advantage. in the pre-modernization legislature, law­ yers, insurance agents, and other business professionals could rely on their private uffices lu llclilllle cuil!;tituent currebpondence and other public busi­ ness, but other legislators could not. as he put it, "thank god i was a lawyer and had a secretary back in the district to put out mail for me." kury was elected to the state senate in 1972 at a time when staffing for individual members of the senate was just becoming available. in his ppsa panel comments, he spoke with great pride of his work in the sen­ ate made possible, in large part, by his newly-acquired authority to hire qualified staff to help develop the major legislation he sponsored to reor­ ganize the public utility commission. "this is what i feel proudest about," said kury. "until that point in pennsylvania, whenever the senate of pennsylvania wanted legislation drafted [on utility issues] we went to the lobbybt uf the electric association. we didn't do that. we gave him 92 our bill and asked for his comments rather than the other way around!" staffing improvements and the other modernization reforms, kury ar­ gued, gave the senate the ability to develop its own lpf;islmion (pennsyl­ vania political science association 2003). kury's and fineman's recollections were in substantial agreement with a 1968 study done by ebs management consultants of new york for pennsylvania's commission on legislative modernization. that report stated that except for the desks on the chamber floor, lithe average rep­ resentative does not have a desk or telephone and the average senator finds himself in a room with three other senators" (commission on leg­ islative modernization 1969/95; also see 56 and 94-102). while these and other accounts of the inadequacies of legislative staff and facilities abound/ no account from the 1960s seems to exist that argues the opposing propo­ sition. historical background and pressures for modernization in pennsylvania after a period of relative legislative supremacy in pennsylvania and nationally, beginning with long fought battles for legislative power in tll~ l:ulunial periud that reached their peak during the revolutionary war period, legislatures the "first branch" went into a long period of decline after the jacksonian era (advisory commission on intergovern­ mental relations 1985, 31-35; commission on legislative modernization 1969, 56-62; wolf 1969, 1-3). in reaction to widespread corruption, pennsylvania's legislature was hobbled by the constitution of 1 r74, which greatly limited legislative powers by making legislative sessions bien­ nial unless called into special session by the governor, and by limiting the legislature's ability to raise revenues. as a "dubious" anti-bribery measure, the 1874 document also increased the size of the senate from 33 members to 50 and the size of the house from 100 members to 200 (com­ iilis~ion on legislative modernization 1969, 62-6'1; wolf 1969, 4-5). these anticorruption reforms did not work. the pennsylvania legislature suf­ fered further degradation under the control of the infamously powerful and corrupt quay / penrose machine, which used the legislature as its powerbase in the decades that bracketed the turn of the century (beers 1980, 41-57). reformers of every stripe would spend nearly a century trying to undo the damage. pennsylvania was not alone. after suffering more than a century of neglect and worse, state legislatures all over the nation were considered inept, antiquated institutions. in 1966 alexander heard, a political scien­ tist and chancellor of vanderbilt university, wrote his often quoted ob­ servation that "state legislatures may be our most extreme example of institutional lag. in their formal qualities they are largely nineteenth cen93 miry organizations and they must or should. address themselves to twen­ tieth century problems" (heard 1966a, 3). it \'vas clear to many that these nineteenth century institutions would have to undergo significant change to meet the challenges from above in the form of new federally-imposed responsibilities and from below in the form of increasing expectations from voters. in the 1960s, president lyndon johnson's great society programs sig­ naled the quickening of a fundamental shift in the federal-state relation­ ship. where new deal programs were administered by new federal bu­ reaucracies, johnson's "war on poverty" provided federal money for new state and locally administered programs. according to a 1976 report of the federbl arlvl~ory commission on intergovernmental relations, fed­ eral aid to the states had increased from $2.9 billion in 1954 to over $60 billion in 1976 (shapp v. sloan 1978, 603). this process of devolution ac­ celerated under the nixon administration and culminated in the block grant approach used in the omnibus budget reconciliation act of 1981 in the first year of the reagan administration (advisory commission on intergovernmental relations 1985, ch. 2). even without this push from the federal government, states like penn­ sylvania were expanding services and budgets to meet growing expecta­ tions in basic education, higher education, labor and safety, highway construction, environmental protection, new human services, and struc­ tures for internal accountability. in pennsylvania, for example, governor john fine's 1953-54 biennial budget hit $1 billion (beers 1980, 185). fed­ eral funding of state programs as we know it today did not exist. in 1971 the general assembly passed governor milton shapp's first annual bud­ get, which recommended spending just over $3 billion in state funds plus $768 million in federal money (governor's executive budget 1971-1972, a17-19). this represented a six fold increase in state spending unly par­ tially explained by a roughly 50% increase in the consumer price index between 1955 and 1970 and a 9% increase in pennsylvania's population from the 1950 to the 1970 census. these new federal and homegrown responsibilities for effectively and f'fficif'ntly managing programs and money called into question the ca­ pacity of state governmental institutions. awakening from a period of . stagnation that the federal advisory commission on intergovernmental relations (1985, 35) once called "the states asleep, 1922-1955," a wave of reforms transformed both the executive and legislative branches in many states. from the 1960s into the 1980s, state legislatures including pennsylvania's underwent a difficult process of modernization tu meet these new challenges. prodded by its legendary house speaker, jesse umuh, california led by raising legislative salaries, providing staff and offices, and implementing procedural reforms (rosenthal 1971b, 11). 94 a national movement emulating reforms in california and in congress, a national move­ ment for legislalive modernization emerged in the 1960::;. the movemenl lacked a single structured leadership or plan (rosenthal 1998, 50). many groups participated prominently such as the american assembly, the national conference of state legislative leaders (ncsll), the ameri­ can political science association (apsa), the federal advisory commis­ sion on intergovernmental relations (acir), the council of state gov­ ernments (csg), the citizens conference on state legislatures (ccsl), the eagleton institute of politics at rutgers university, and various chap­ tpr~ of thp 1.p£lv1p ofwompn votprs (advisory commission on tntptgov­ ernmental relations 1985, 68). in addition, the long-standing reform or­ ganization, the national municipal league, was heavily focused on state constitutional reform and revision. the national legislative conference, a group largely comprised of the staff directors of legislative service agen­ cies, actively pursued a reform agenda and made comprehensive reform recommendalions as eady as 1961 (heard 1966b, 158-162). the shared purpose of these groups resulted in strikingly similar recommendations and identified best practices. alan rosenthal (1971b, 3-4) summarized the reform proposals from different organizations into a short list of nine general programmatic recommendations: 1. elimination of many constitutional limitations on the authority of state legislatures, including limits on the taxing power, ear­ marking of revenues, requirements on referenda, and legislator compensation. 2. increase in the frequency and length of legislative sessions, with­ out limitation on time or subject. 3. reduction of the size of legislative bodies so that they are no larger than fair representation requires. 4. increase in compensation and related benefits, with expenses of legislative service fully reimbursed. 5. adoption of more rigorous standards of conduct by means of codes of ethics and conflict of interest, disclosure, and lobbying legislation, as well as ethics committees or commissions with some enforcement powers. 6. adequate space and facilities for committees and individual members, including electronic data processing and roll-call vot­ ing equipment. 7. improvement of legislative operations to ensure efficiency in the consideration of bills and the widespread dissemination of pro­ cedural and substantive information. 8. strengthening of standing committees by reducing their num95 ber, defining their jurisdictions, and improving their procedures. 9. increasing the number and competence of legislabve staff work­ ing for leaders, committees, and rank-and-file members. although ostensibly independent on paper, these reform groups were interrelated in many respects. for example, larry margolis, staff direc­ tor of the ccsl, was the former staff director for california speaker unruh. the ncsll, the ccsl, and unruh worked closely with donald herzberg and alan rosenthal of the eagleton institute (herzberg and ru~eilthal1971, viii-xii). speaker fineman served as an o[ficel~ and ulll­ mately president, of the ncsll in the early 19705 a post held in the 1960s by speaker umuh. in addition to the staff of the ncsll, fineman counted people like alan rosenthal of eagleton and larry margolis among his close associates. when the ncsll, the nlc, and other groups merged to form the national conference of state legislatures in 1976, they became a powerful voice for continuing modernization. at the same time, the ncsll spun off the state legislative leaders foundation. thp tpform pffort!"> of thpsp organizations often shared common pri­ vate funding sources. the ford foundation and the carnegie corpora­ tion funded the work of the ccsl and the eagleton institute seminar series on legislative modernization, as well as many of the national municipal league's efforts at state constitutional reform (burns 1971, preface; heard 1966b, 158-159; rosenthal 1998, ix-x; wolf 1969, iv). penn­ sylvania was among 13 states receiving grants from the apsa and the ford foundation for new legislator orientation programs, which were first held in december 1970.'fineman and all future speakers continued the new member orientations (wise 1984, vi). the apsa also sponsored a series of books on individual state legislatures to introduce new legis­ lators and the public to the legislative process. the series includprj sidnpy wise's 1971 book the legislative process in pennsylvania. the pennsylva­ nia house published a second edition in 1984. cross-pollinated, coop­ era live, bipartisan, and largely non-competitive, these groups, along with academics and individual state legislative leaders and members, formed a national movement dedicated to reforming the institutions of repre­ sentative government. . the most effective public campaign was launched by the ccsl, which formed in 1965 to evaluate each legislature and make recommendations for legislative rules changes and capacity building. it established a de­ tailed set of criteria for use in assessing legislative capability. these crite­ ria were organized under general headings that formed the ::lcronym ea.i.i.r functionality, accountability, information handling capabil­ ity, independence, and representativeness. each of these headings was broken down into sub-criteria, such as size of the legislature (a peculiar fetish of many reformers), committee structure, staffing, facilities, public 96 access to information, internal accountability, fiscal review capabilities, conflict of interest rules, and member effectiveness (burns 1971, 37-150). the ccsl also evaluated each legislature according to f.a.i.i.r. criteria, it made specific recommendations about each, and it ranked the legisla­ tures in its "complete report" in 1971 (citizens conference on state legis­ latures 1971). the group summarized the results in a 1971 bantam paper­ back by john burns targeted to the general public titled the sometime gov­ ernments: a critical study of the 50 american legislatures. california, both the poster child and gold standard for reformers, scored first in the over­ all rankings (burns 1971, 181-6). pennsylvania, with its reforms only par­ tially complete at the time of the study, ranked 21 among the 50 states. on individual criteria, pennsylvania ranked 37 on functionality (penalized in part for the legislature's large size), 23 on accountability, 23 on informed, 5 on independence and 36 on representativeness (burns 1971,289-94). predictably, these rankings were highly controversial and hotly con­ tested in state legislatures across the country. speaker fineman and other state legislative leaders railed against the rankings when they were re­ leased. he argued then, as he did years later in his remarks before the ppsa panel; that the best equipped legislature is not always the best per­ former. during the ppsa panel discussion, alan rosenthal reflected on the controversy. he said he had told margolis that the rankings were "in­ defensible social science." rosenthal reported that margolis replied, "if you don't give them a number, no one will ever remember it." with the advantage of hindsight, rosenthal says that the ranking system was "ter­ rible social science. it was stupidity. but it was political brilliance." fair or unfair, the numerical rankings were a great motivator for state legislative reform efforts. even fineman now characterizes his old disagreement with margolis as a disagreement between friends (pennsylvania political sci­ ence association 2003). in the decades that followed the release of the ccsl report, the ea.i.i.r. criteria (it not the rankings) were used by groups such as the acir to evaluate state legislative capacity (advisory com­ mission on intergovernmental relations 19t$5, 69-112). constitutional revision in pennsyvania in 1955 the commission on intergovernmental relations, known as the kestnbaum commission, issued its report to president eisenhower recommending the return of governmental functions to the states, while urging sweeping revisions in antiquated state constitutions. this report gave a boost to the work of the national municipal league and reform­ ers at the state level (advisory commission on intergovernmental rela­ tions 1985, 40-61). states also reacted to the landmark "one man, one vote" decision of the u.s. supreme court in baker v. carr (1962) requiring states to reapportion their legislatures to ensure equal representation 97 based on population. reapportionment by the new standard often re­ quired constitutional revision; and in many states, such as pennsylvania, it provided an opportunity to redress other state constitutional provi­ sions effecting legislative capacity. in 1959 and 1967, in work that was largely completed before fineman's ascendancy, pennsylvania amended its constitution of 1874 to remove the restrictions on legislative sessions. the 1959 amendment established an­ nual sessions, with the even year being devoted to budget matters and the odd year to other legislation (legislative h.eterence bureau 1986, 173-4). this amendment opened the way for a full time legislature, but one that still needed the executive to call special sessions in the "budget years" to consider substantive legislation. during the leader administration, the· general assembly created the commission on constitutional revision, referred to as the "woodside commission" after its chairman, former house republican leader and then pennsylvania superior court judge robert e. woodside. in its report, the commission treated the 1959 amendment as a half-way measure and recommended that the legislature be a 1/ continu­ ing body during the term for which its representatives are elected" (re­ port of the commission on constitutional revision 1959, 19-20). the legislative workload juxtaposed with constitutional limitations made "special sessions" called by the governor a practical and constitu­ tional necessity in the 1960s. seven special sessions were called between 1959 and 1966 one by governor lawrence and six by governor scranton. some of these special sessions were little more than an extra rpv] 1ar spssion with <l 1aiindly list of unrelated topics in thp c;ovprnor's session call (pennsylvania manual 2001-2002, sec.3, 181-182). during the 1960s the legislature was in continuing session, albeit without constitu­ tional approbation. after three more constitutional study commissions completed their work and one attempt to call a general constitutional convention failed, a series of significant constitutional changes worked their way though the amendment process during the scranton administration. the voters adopted the woodside language in 1967 by a margin of two to one, mak­ ing the legislature a 1/ continuing body." among other changes, the amend­ ments relaxed gubernatorial term limits by allowing the governor to serve two conspcutivp tprms rathpr than onp. thp 1pgislatutp could now mept in two-year sessions without restrictions. annual budgets have become the norm and bills introduced during the first year of the session carryover into the second year. also under the 1967 amendments, either the gover­ nor or the general assembly may call special sessions (wolf 1969, 8-26). since the legislature is in continuous session, special sessions are used pri­ marily as a political device to focus attention on a particular subject. since 1968, special sessions have run concurrently with the regular session. 98 following governor scranton's failed attempt, governor shafer suc­ ceeded in 1967 in getting a "limited" constitutional convention on the ballot for voter approval. it was a hard fight for both scranton and shafer. the republican leadership was initially skeptical of any convention at all, and the democrats wanted an open (unlimited) convention (wolf 1969, 25-33). house minority leader fineman brokered the final deal for a "lim­ ited" convention advocated by shafer and he provided the legislative votes necessary to place the issue on the may primary ballot (pennsylvania house jouma11967, 215-224). voters approved a measure authorizing the con­ vention along with seven constitutional amendments. the constitutiona1 convention of 88 republican and 74 democratic delegates (called the "con con" at the time) met from december 1967 through februalt 1968 (deers 1980,350-355). under its mandate to address legislative reapportionment, this convention drafted amendments to set up a bipartisan legislative reapportionment commission and to bar the creation of multimember districts (from which about half of the house members were elected prior to the 1966 legislative reapportionment) (bums 1971, 82-83; commission on legislative modernization 1969, 81; legislative reference bureau1986, 32-34). in all, 85 major changes were made in the old constitution and were incorporated into five comprehensive amendments (beers 1980, 354). former governors leader and scranton headed the "vote yes" campaign (wolf 1969, 51). the amendments were easily ratified by the voters in apri11968. the pennsylvania tactic of piecemeal amendment and limited convention proved successful in achieving the goals of constitutional re­ vision, whereas similar attempts in neighboring new york and maryland failed (beers 1980, 351; penniman 1971, 205-214). the "con con" also settled one of the most controversial recommen­ dations made by the reform movement in pennsylvania and elsewhere: reducing the size of the legislature. many proposals to do so had been soundly rejected. one proposal to reduce the house by half to 101 mem­ bers lost in the convention by a vote 14-135. city political machines of both parties, in concert with widespread rural opposition, trounced by margins of 2 to1 several proposals to make more modest reductions (com­ mission on legislative modernization 1969, 14i wolf 1968, 40-41). herb fineman (an ex officio convention delegate) refrained from voting on the issue and focused instead on taxation and finance issues. his friend and siz.e-reductiun i:hlvocale, aulhur ji::unes michenef who was abo lhe con­ vention secretary, repeatedly lost that fight on the convention floor and refused to revisit th~ question later when the commission on legislative modernization (1969, 43) addressed it. delegates and future governors robert p. casey and richard thornburgh voted for most of the more modest reductions, as did future speaker k. leroy irvis. (none of them voted to cut the house to 101 members.) republican leader lee donaldson 99 and judge woodside helped to lend the opposition to any fixed reduction in the size of the house. to prevent any future attempt to tamper with the size of the legislature by statute, the convention constitutionally fixed its size at 203 representatives and 50 senators (debates of the constitutional convention of 1967-1968, 440-520). soon after the convention's close, larry margolis of the ccsl complained bitterly in a paper presented at an eagleton conference. the house's size and the convention's '/failure" to reduce it, he said, "acted against the probability of equipping the mem­ bers of the legislature adequately" (margolis 1971,32). as it turned out, the house's size did not create any important or lasting impediment to pennsy lvania' s reforms. after 1968, attempts to reduce the size of the leg­ islature provided cornie relief but not a serious threat to the status quo. reform efforts to make significant reductions in the size of the legislature met similar fates in most other states (advisory commission on inter­ govenunental relalions 1985,73-76; rosenlhal1998, 51). pennsylvania's commission on legislative modernization like pennsylvania, many states formed their own commissions to study their legislatures and some sought academic evaluations from the eagleton institute. others relied on and reacted to the ongoing work of the ccsl and its final report. in 1968 the pennsylvania general assembly overwhelming adopted house resolution 207, which established a legislatively appointed com­ mission on legislative modernization. the commission was charged with recommending reforms intended "to strengthen the legislative branch of state government so that it can maintain its position of co-equality as an independent, self-sufficient branch of government." the resolution was sponsored by house republican (majority) leader lee donaldson and co-sponsored by the leadership of both house caucuses. j:iineman was a co-sponsor of the resolution and one of the appointing authorities named for the commission (history of house bills and resolutions 19671968,413). the resolution passed the legislature with the republicans in control of both chambers. fineman would be speaker the next year when the report was issued, and he took on its implementation over the succeeding legislative ses­ sions. the commission was commonly referred to as the "l\1ichener com­ mission" after its famous co-chairman, james michener. it was also co­ chaired by theodore hazlett, jr., president of the mellon charitable and educational trust. the commission included former governor george leader and judge woodslde, both of whom had been involved in earlier reform efforts (wise 1984, 14-16). after reviewing preliminary reports from management consultants and academics, and hearing testimony from legislative leaders and staff, capitol-beat reporters, state organiza;. 100 tions like the afl-cio, the chamber of commerce, and the league of women voters, the commission issued its 204 page report in january 1969 (the year before the final ccsl report). the published report, titled to­ ward tomorrow's legislature, made 58 recommendations, all largely re­ flected in rosenthal's summarized list and in fineman's remarks. as he had done even before the commission issued its report, fineman continued to enhance staff services, office space, salaries, and other fa­ cilities for members. he also moved forcefully to empower committees in the legislative process with staff, facilities, and a mandate to deliber­ ate. in this regard, he followed the advice (knowingly or unknowingly) given by rosenthal in his 1971 essays on legislative reform where he recommended "some balance in the internal distribution of power" and suggested that "those legislatures, such as new jersey, pennsylvania, and new york, where power is highly centralized, might devote more atten­ tion to strengthening committees" (rosenthal 1971a, 81). committee empowerment under fineman was noticeable. sidney wise quotes "a longtime lobbyist" before the commission on legislative modernization in 1968 as saying "the committee system functions more in name in penn­ sylvania than it does in actuality," for "the caucus is the controlling body." he also quotes a legislative staffer in1971 commenting on the recent changes: "in the past few years, certain house committees have become much more powerful. ... they write their own bills [and] they could buck party leadership and get measures passed" (wise 1971, 39-41). fineman also championed efforts to m.anage better the time of mem­ bers another goal of national and state reformers. the ccsl directly criticized pennsylvania for time-management shortcomings in its 1971 report (bums 1971, 57-62 and 103; commission on legislative modern­ ization 1969, 10 and 28-30). in 1975 fineman introduced an innovative system that divided the legislative schedule into" committee weeks" and "floor weeks." the "committee weeks" provided time for fuller commit­ tee deliberation and hearings prior to floor votes and minimized mem­ ber / committee scheduling conflicts. the "floor weeks" were devoted to consideration of legislation by the house itself. in another innovation, fineman changed committee assignment criteria to give newer mem­ bers opportunities to sit on more prestigious committees (fineman 1976). although these innovations received national attention, they did not all survivp intact after his sppakf'rship. somp vestiges f'xlst: the house st11l does not schedule floor action during weeks in which budget hearings are held by the appropriations committee, and newer members are still granted seats on key committees. revitalizing committees and improving facilities for members did not, by anyone's estimation, diminish fineman's power, which was at its height in the early 1970s. as charles davis of the ncsll argued, a weak 101 institution would have "leaders in name only," while stronger, more pow­ erfullegislatures would convey that power on its leaders (davis 1971, 195-204). in this same vein, speaker fineman and other legislative lead­ ers moved forcefully in the 1970s to wrestle appropriations powers back from the executive branch. pennsylvania took a national leadership role as acir, the nesl, and others pushed to have state legislatures assert control over federal funds then being sent to the states under sole guber­ natorial control. since 1961, appropriations acts in pennsylvania had as­ serted the power of the legislature to appropriate federal funds and did so in general, all inclusive language. when federal funds hit 25% of the state budget in 1975, the legislature moved to appropriate all federal funds in program specific line items (shapp v. sloan 1978, 600). democratic gov­ ernor milton shapp denied that there was such legislative authority. in 1976 the general assembly, under democratic control passed senate bill 1542 (act 117 of 1976) with only one dissenting vote in the hollsp. thp legislature then overrode the governor's veto by votes of 40-10 in the senate and 169-22 in the house (history of senate bills and resolutions 1975-1976, a200). the low forbode the state treasurer from expending any federal funds not specifically appropriated by the general assem­ bly. shapp challenged the law on constitutional grounds. the general assembly intervened to join state treasurer grace sloan as a respon­ dent. justice louis manderino, the brother of the then house democratic (majority) leader james manderino, wrote the opinion of the state su­ preme court. shapp lost his state appeal and the u.s. supreme court refused to hear his appeal on federal grounds. acir, which was refer­ enced in the court's opinion, hailed the pennsylvania case as a prpc'p­ dent-setting victory for legislative authority (advisory commission on intergovernmental relations 1985, 9 and 117-122; shapp v. sloan 1978, 603 and 605-606). successful accommodation of pennsylvania traditions sidney wise (1971, 25) observed in that "there are few states in the nation where party caucuses are as important to the legislative process as they are in pennsylvania." in pennsylvania the party caucus largely con­ trols the committee system and the style and scheduling of floor debate. the state's tradition of strong parties tempered the legislature's response to reform recommendations. while reformers on state commissions and national conferences generally favored nonpartisan staffing, the modern­ ization pattern in pennsylvania accommodated its traditions of strong parties and the informal, but entrenched, four caucus structure in the leg­ islature (senate "d's and r'sll and house "d's and r's"). for example, the michener commission recommended that in addition to majority and minority committee staffing, bipartisan staff should be added for con102 stituency service and press relations. (the ccsl recommended nonparti­ san staff for almost everything.) realizing that press releases describing member and party positions on bills are inherently political, the legisla­ ture decided to create caucus-based mformation offices. constituency service was addressed during fineman's tenure and shortly thereafter by adding clerical staff for individual members in harrisburg and in home district offices. research assistance to members in the house was pro­ vided by central caucus staff controlled by leadership or by l.o.r.l. fineman's remarks and the ppsa panel discussion shed additional light on the development of the partisan staffing structure. speaking mostly of the earlier years, fineman noted that even though he did not always have the active participation of other leaders in his reform ef­ forts, he never encountered active opposition. fineman would often be­ gin by making a unilateral move to staff the house democratic caucus or committees and then invite the other caucuses to join in equal measure, which they gladly did. this pattern of funding caucus staff and services equally was later formalized in the appropriations process where legis­ lative staff accounts were set up to provide equal funding to both the minority and majority caucuses of each house, guaranteeing equal fund­ ing for policy, research, and member support staff (governor's execu­ tive budget 2003-2004, e40.1-40.7). house republicans, also proactive, commissioned the pennsylvania economy league to study the issue of staff support for the caucus in 1973 (wise 1984, 16). this caucus-based system also had the advantage of providing job security for staff, which protected them from swings in legislative control. while fineman was known as a tough partisan leader, he was not nec­ essarily opposed to nonpartisan staff services such as l.o.r.l., which he set up as a non-partisan research agency to serve members. in the fineman era and after, however, questions of whether to adopt a partisan staff sup­ port structure or add nonpartisan staff services generally were resolved in favor of adding partisan staff. by the end of the 1977-78 legislative session, the average senator had several staff persons working in harris­ burg and in the district. house freshmen had at least a shared secretary in harrisburg and funding for at least a part-time home office staffer. the michener commission reported that in 1968 there were 221 senate em­ ployees and 311 in the house, not including joint service agencies (wise 1984, 50). according to historian paul beers, 127 of those staff positions were created the previous year (beers 1980, 341). by 1983 the senate em­ ployed 620 people and the house employed 1,000 (wise 1994, 50). pennsylvania also made an accommodation between the "small is beautiful" approach of many reformers, as applied to the number of stand­ ing committees, and the political reality of the legislative environment. the michener commission, later supported by the ccsc recommenrlerl 103 that the house and senate establish 13 parallel committees, a mammoth political undertaking especially for the house (bums 1971,291). while the commission was completing its report, speaker fineman reduced the number of substantive committees in the house from 33 to 21 plus eth­ ics, rules, and other "housekeeping" and internal oversight committees with no original jurisdiction over bills. he did so by consolidating com­ mittees with similar jurisdictions and associated interests. five commit­ tees dealing with local government matters were combined into two. three transportation-related committees were merged into one. in the senate, 19 standing committees existed, plus executive nominations and rules. the number of committees in the senate had been stable for de­ cades and there was little sentiment for further reduction (cassidy and king 1999,4; wise 1971,39-45). fineman and the house democratic lead­ ership issued a position paper in 1969 recommending further reductions tu 15 cummittees beginning with the 1971 session. that reduction did not occur, presumably because of opposition from committee chairman and legislators hoping to become chairmen, an obvious tactical problem recognized by rosenthal (1971c, 174). overall the michener commission's recommendations found wide acceptance in the legislature. wrote sidney wise (1984, 15-16): suffice it to say that the general assembly reacted favorably to most of the proposals and out of them emerged an agenda for a decade. even more important, the commission created among the members of the legislature a realization that the old ways were simply inadequate at a time when expectations for legisla­ tive effectiveness were increasing so dramatically in pennsyl­ vania and throughout the nation. after fineman at the time of fineman's departure in 1977, the legislature was well on it way in ctpatine cal]cl1s-haseo staff stlpport for members, commit­ tees, and caucus leadership. the legislature provided funds for caucus­ based district offices in the 1978-79 budget. the last bastions of exclusive majority control of chamber-wide services were the offices of the chief 'clerk and controller of the house and the secretary of the senate, which had responsibility for payrolls, legislative expenses, and other official record keeping (wise 1~71, 22-25). the unprecedented growth of staff, facilities, and member expenses superimposed on an antiquated payroll system, in part set by statute and a less than professional management system, was a prescription for disaster. in april 1978, the house passed house resolution 122, sponsored by speaker k. leroy lrvis, republican leader robert butera, democratic leader james manderino, and other leaders. it established a commission 104 "to make a comprehensive and impartial study of the organization and operation of the pennsylvania house." the commission was chaired by former house member john pittenger who had been a former secretary of the pennsylvania department of education and would later become dean of the rutgers school of law. adding urgency to the commission's dp1ihprml0ns, thp philadelphia l11qui1'er published in the summer of 1978 a multi-part expose, titled "pennsylvania's assembly: how it is out of con­ tro!," attacking the loose management and personnel practices of the house and senate (wise 1984, 17). the commission released its recommendations after the end of the legislative session in december 1978. despite a change in control of the house from democratic to republican, the recommendations were passed unanimously in house bill 777 (act 104 of 1979) jointly sponsored by speaker h. jack seltzer, the new republican floor leader matthew ryan, and democratic floor leader k. leroy irvis (history of house bills and resolutions 1979-1980, a97). the legislation created the bi-partisan man­ agement committee (bmc) to oversee house operations induding pay­ rolls, expense accounts, purchasing, personnel, and services. it was also empowered to keep the official records of the house. the bmc is comprised of the speaker, the majority and minority lead­ ers, and the majority and minority whips. all decisions of the committee require four votes, thereby ensuring some measure of bipartisan agree­ ment. employees of the bmc, induding those of the chief clerk (called "core employees" to distinguish them from caucus staff), were made officially non-partisan. when donkeys and elephants were banned from offices, some employees adopted the "pink panther" as their mascot. at the initiative of senate president pro tempore henry hager, simi­ lar reforms were unanimously adopted in senate bill 7 of 1981 (act 90 of 1981) (history of senate bills and resolutions 1981-1982, a2). the senate committee on management operations (como) created by the act dif­ fered from its house counterpart in that it requires only a simple major­ ity vote to take an action (wise 1984, 16-20). as senate (republican) mi­ nority leader, hager later led efforts to strengthen the legislature's over­ sight of adn1inistrative regulations w.ilh the passage of the ilidepellllent regulatory review act in 1982 (wise 1984, 86-99). continuing bipartisan support william keefe (1971, 189-91) once warned that partisanship could be an obstacle to reform. in pennsylvania, herb fineman turned partisan­ ship into an ally of reform. despite pennsylvania's reputation for stiff partisanship, the reform movement was supported by both parties throughout the pf'rioo and aftprwaro. tn part thp "opal" to fllno eijllcll1y each caucus staff worked in favor of capacity building because the mi105 nority party was given any new capacity enjoyed by the majority party and therefore did not oppose the reforms. perhaps the bipartisan coop­ eration reflected the political realities of the time. in the politically uncer­ tain 19605, 19705, and 19805, all four caucuses would find themselves in the minority at some point (kennedy 1999, 6-8) in the mid-1970s, california state senate republican whip h.l. "bill" richardson (who served in the califor;nia senate from 1966 to 1988) lam­ pooned the development of the professional legislature on partisan and ideological grounds in his book, w'hat makes you think we read the bills? (richardson 1978, 90-95) no such opposition could be seen in pemlsyl­ vania. matthew ryan, who was house republican whip throughout most of the 1970s, republican leader in 1978, and speaker on and of between 1981 and 2003, consolidated existing reforms and endorsed further im­ provements in member services. throughout his tenure he never wa­ vered in his support for institutional modernization. some academic criticism of pennsylvania's reforms surfaced in charles greenawalt and terry madonna's critique lithe pennsylvania general assembly," suggestively subtitled "the house of iii repute revisited" (greenawalt and madonna 1992). it is safe to say, however, that during the 1965-1980 period of reform, there was remarkably little internal or external opposition to modernization per se in pennsylvania (excepting the perennial press stories decrying any increase in legislative payor "perks," actual or perceived). in the years since 1980, other states' modernization reforms have been challenged and in some' cases rolled back. even the flagship of the re­ form movement, the california legislature, was repeatedly humbled by ballot initiatives in the 19805 and 1990s that reduced the power of the speaker, eliminated the legislative pension system, established term lim­ its, and reduced the size of the legislative staff (rosenthal 1998, 76-80). but there have been no serious attempts to roll back the accomplishments of the modernization movement in pennsylvania. pennsylvania, which does not permit ballot initiatives, has retained the internal bipartisan commitment to upgrade legislative capacity, most recently in the areas of computerization and constituency and media outreach. since fineman's departure, pennsylvania's budget and the federal government's share of it continues to grow. the fy 2003-04 general fund budget as proposed by governor edward rendell is over $20 billion, exclusive of federal funds totaling about $13 billion (governor's execu­ tive budget 20ni-2004, cr-9, ci2).1 the nllmher of ('ommittee~ ha~ crept up in the house. today there are 21 committees plus rules in the senate, and 23 not necessarily parallel committees plus rules in the house (penn­ sylvania manual 2001-2002, sec.3-37 and 3-184). legislative staffing and facility improvements have continued. the house now employs about 106 1600 people, over 80% of whom work for the caucuses as leadership staff, committee staff, member staff in harrisburg and in the districts, or in central research, member services, legislative media relations offices, com~ puter support, graphics, newsletter production, printing, and mail shops. the same services are provided for the 50 senators by just under 1,000 staffers.2 the capitol east wing was built in the 1980s during the thornburgh administration to house legislative offices, committee hear­ ing rooms, visitor facilities, and a media center. the legislature also ex­ panded into three adjoining buildings in the capitol complex. the old executive office building has been renamed "the speaker matthew ryan building," and the old south office building, which the legislature shares with the courts, has been named after speaker k. leroy irvis. most re­ cently the legislature has taken over the first two floors of the old north office building with the expectation that it will someday carry the name of a prominent state senator. on the ppsa panel, alan rosenthal reiterated the benchmarks he has used to judge legislative capacity and the success of the reform move­ illt!nt; tht! legislature lhu::;t uparlklpale vjguruu::,ly in publlc policy mak­ ing," "review and evaluate the conduct of the administration and the effects of state programs," and "represent and help out constituents" (hertzberg and rosenthal 1971, vii). according to rosenthal, the reforms of the 1960s and 1970s clearly have increased the ability of the nation's legislatures to affect public policy, conduct fiscal and programmatic over­ sight of the executive branch, and reach out to and represent constitu­ ents. he also indicated that /i capacity is no longer an issue in most states" (pennsylvania political science association 2003). furthermore, the re­ forms of the 19605 and 1970s have made legislatures generally more rep­ resentative, open, internally democratic, and responsive (rosenthal et a1 2003, 197-198). the evidence is equally clear that herb fineman's "legacy of mod­ ernization" has had the same effect of empowering the legislature he served. in 1994 the members of the house of representatives assembled in observance of the unveiling of fineman's portrait as speaker. k. leroy ]rvis, who succeeded fineman as speaker, told the assembled members (only 20 of whom had actually served during fineman's tenure): "you are the voice of the people, and the man who gave you the power of that voice is former speaker herbert fineman" (pennsylvania house journal 1994). although no building in the capitol complex carries fineman's name, his vision of a modern, professional legislature is imprinted on the institution itself. 107 notes 1. the general fund encompasses most government functions but does not include other smaller dedicated funds, of which the motor license fund is the largest. in fy 2003-04 the motor license fund proposes to spend $2.9 bil­ lion in state and $1.5 billion in federal funds (governor's executive budget 2003-2004, c32). 2. data provided by the chief clerk of the house and the chief clerk of the senate, june 2003. references advisory commission on intergovernmental relations. 1985. the question of state government capability: commission report of the advisory commission on inter­ governmental relations. washington d.c. beers, paul. 1980. pennsylvania politics yesterday and today: the tolerable accommo­ dation. university park, pa: the pennsylvania state university press. burns, john. 1971. the sometimes governments: a critical study of the 50 american legislatures by the citizens conference on state legislatures. new york: bantam books. cassidy, michael, and michael king. 1999. /i are we really doing less with more? reassessing the measures of legislative performance." presented at the an­ nual meeting of the pennsylvania political science association, villanova· university, april 9. citizens conference on state legislatures. 1971. state legislatures: an evaluation of their effectiveness the complete report of the citizens conference on state legislatures. new york: praeger. commission on legislative modernization. 1969. toward tomorrow's legislature. harrisburg: pennsylvania general assembly. davis, charles o. 1971. "legislative reform and the legislative leader." in strengthening the states: essays on legislative reform, ed. donald g. herzberg and alan rosenthal. new york: doubleday. debates of the constitutional convention of 1967-1968. vol. 1. harrisburg, pa. fineman, herbert. 1976. "managing time in the pennsylvania house." state government news (winter). lexington, ky: council of statf' covernments. governor's executive budget. 1971-1972. harrisburg, p a. __ .2003-2004. harrisburg, pa. greenawalt ii, charles e., and g. terry madonna. 1992. "the pennsylvania gen­ eral assembly: the house of ill-repute revisited." in the reform of state legislatures and the changing character of representation, ed. eugene w. hickok, jr. lanham, md: university press of america. heard, alexander. 1966a. ijreform: limits and opportunities." in state legisla­ tures il1 american politics, ed. alexander heard. englewood cliffs, n.j.: prentice-hall. __ . 1966b. state legislatures in american politics. englewood cliffs, n.j.: prentice­ hall. herzberg, donald g., and alan rosenthal. 1971. strel1gthenin8 the states: essays 011 legislative reform. new york: doubleday. 108 history of house bills and resolutions. 1967-1968. harrisburg, pa. __ .1979 1980. harrisburg, pa. history of senate bills, resolutions, and executive communications in the sen­ ate. 1975-1976. harrisburg, pa. __ .1981-1982. harrisburg, pa. keefe, william j. 1966. "functions and powers of state legislatures." in state legislatures in america11 politics, ed. alexander heard. englewood cliffs, n.j.: prentice-hall. __ .1971. "reform and the american legislature." in strengthening the states: essays on legislative reform, ed. donald g. herzberg and alan rosenthal. new york: doubleday. kennedy, john j. 1999. the contemporary pennsylvania legislature. lanham, md: university press of america. legislative reference bureau. 1986. constitutions of pennsylvania: constitution of the united states. harrisburg, pa. margolis, larry. 1971. "revitalizing state legislatures" in strengthening the states: essays 011 legislative reform, ed. donald g. herzberg and alan rosenthal. new york: doubleday. penniman, howard. 1971. "the constitutional convention as a device for legis­ lative change." in strengthening the states: essays on legislative reform, ed. dunald g. herzberg cind alan rutienthal. new yurk: duubleday. pennsylvania house of representatives homepage. 2003. "gallery of speaker's portraits herbert fineman." <http://www.house.state.pa.us>. july 8. pennsylvania house journal. 1967. march 6. __ .1994.june 7. pennsylvania manual 2001-2002. vol. 115. harrisburg, pa: department of gen­ eral services. pennsylvania political science association. 2003. "roundtable on pennsylvania legislative modernization." annual meeting of the pennsylvania political science association, villanova university, april 4. videotape recording. pa house of representatives archives: harrisburg, pa. report of the commission on constitutional revision. 1959. harrisburg, pa. richardson, h.l.1978. what makes you think we read the bills? ottawa, illinois: green hill publishers. rosenthat alan. 1971a. "consequences of legislative staffing." in strengthening the states: essays on legislative reform, ed. donald g. herzberg and alan rosenthal. new york: doubleday. __ .1998. the decline of representative democracy: process, participation, and power in state legislatures. washington, d.c: congressional quarterly press. __ . 1971b. "the scope of legislative reform: an introduction." in strengthen­ ing the states: essays on legislative reform, ed. donald g. herzberg and alan rosentha1. new york: doubleday. __ . 1971 c. "strategies and tactics of reform: an introduction." in strengthen­ ing the states: essays 011 legislative reform, ed. donald g. herzberg and alan rosenthal. new york: doubleday. rosenthal, alan, burdett a. loomis, john r. hibbing, and karl t. kurtz. 2003. republic on trial: the case for representative democracy. washington d.c.: congressional quarterly press. loy shapp v. sloan. 1978.391 a.2nd 595 (pa). wise, sidney. 1 y71. the legislative frocess 111 fennsylvania. washington d.c.: ameri­ can political science association. 1984. the legislative process in pennsylvania. 2nd ed. harrisburg, pa: penn­ sylvania house of representatives. wolf, george d. 1969. constitutional revision in penl1sylvania: the duel tactic of amendment and limited convention. new york: national municipal league. 110