









































Communication, Society and Media 
ISSN 2576-5388 (Print) ISSN 2576-5396 (Online) 

Vol. 4, No. 1, 2021 
www.scholink.org/ojs/index.php/csm 

8 
 

Original Paper 

Reforming Sectarian Beliefs in Iraq: Winning the Peace 
Michael Oler1*, Anthony Johnson2, Anna McCulloh3, Munqith Dagher4, Anita Day5, & Ian McCulloh2,6 
1 Krieger School of Arts and Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA 
2 Johns Hopkins University. Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD, USA 
3 Arrow Analytics, Lithia, FL, USA  
4 Independent Institute for Administrative and Civil Society Studies (IIACSS), Amman, Jordan 
5 Northrop Grumman Corporation Technology Services, Mclean, VA, USA  
6 Accenture Federal Services, Arlington, VA, USA 
* Michael Oler, Krieger School of Arts and Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA 

 

Received: November 30, 2020   Accepted: December 14, 2020    Online Published: January 25, 2021 

doi:10.22158/csm.v4n1p8                         URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.22158/csm.v4n1p8 

 
Abstract 

Sectarian violence continues in Iraq affecting regional and world security. Neuroscience techniques are 

used to assess the mentalizing process and counter-arguing in response to videos designed to prevent 

extremist radicalization. Measurement of neural activity in brain Regions of Interest (ROI) assists 

identification of messages which can promote favorable behavior. Activation of the Medial Prefrontal 

Cortex (MPFC) is associated with message adoption and behavior change. Public Service 

Announcements (PSAs) have not been effective in reducing violence in Iraq. This study demonstrates 

that the four PSAs investigated in this study do not activate the MPFC. The RLPFC is a brain ROI 

associated with counter-arguing and message resistance. This study demonstrates that reduction in 

activity in the Right Lateral Prefrontal Cortex (RLPFC) is associated with decreased sectarianism. 

Engagement was measured and is associated with activity in the frontal pole regions. 

We introduce Functional Near-infrared Spectroscopy (fNIRS) to measure the neural activity of highly 

sectarian Iraqis in response to these anti-sectarian messages. Neural activity was measured while 

viewing three PSAs and a fourth unpublished video. All four videos are intended to reduce sectarianism. 

A novel sectarianism scale is introduced to measure sectarian beliefs before and after the messages. 

This sectarian scale has high internal consistency as measured by Cronbach’s alpha. Measured 

activation of brain ROIs are correlated with changes in the sectarian scale.  

Twelve Sunni and twelve Shi’a Iraqis participated in the study. Subjects were shown the four videos in 

randomized order, while equipped with a fNIRS neural imaging device. All four videos produced 

significant engagement. None of the videos reduced sectarianism nor caused brain activation of 



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adoption. This is consistent with the widely held Iraqi public perception that the PSAs are ineffective. 

Only one video, which was un-published, caused reduced sectarian beliefs. This un-published fourth 

video was associated with decreased counter-arguing. Counter-arguing is associated with message 

resistance. 

Keywords 

counter-arguing, fNIRS, functional near infrared spectroscopy, influence, mentalize, message adoption, 

public service announcement, region of interest, resistance, sectarian 

 

1. Introduction: Historical Background 

Iraq is located in the cradle of civilization between the Tigris and Euphrates River. Successive empires 

invaded and controlled Iraq, including Sumeria, Babylonia, Assyria, Greece, Rome, the Mongols, and 

the Ottoman Turks. Baghdad was a center of culture, learning, and commerce for Islam in the Middle 

Ages until the Mongol invasion in 1258. 

Iraq became a British mandate after the first World War, followed by an independent monarchy. This 

monarchy was followed by decades of violent upheaval, then Ba’ath Party control in 1968.  

Most Iraqis are Muslim. There is sectarian conflict between Sunni and Shi’a Arabs, who both speak 

Arabic, and Kurds, who speak Kurdish. Iraq has been described as an “artificial” nation, comprised of 

geographically clustered sectarian strongholds. In World War I the Ottoman Empire sided with 

Germany, threatening British access to oil and other interests. Britain invaded Basra, then the rest of 

Iraq. After World War I, Britain created Iraq. The British mandate in Iraq involuntarily united diverse 

groups who were not cohesive and who had significant ties to outside entities. Iraq was held together 

by the overwhelming, brutal dictator, Saddam Hussein, his family, and Sunni Ba’ath Party.  

Osama bin Laden founded the Sunni organization Al-Qeada. bin Laden led the Al-Qeada attack on the 

United States in 2001. In 2003, the United States attacked and occupied Iraq. After the United States 

invaded Iraq in 2003, the Coalition Provisional Authority disbanded the Iraqi Army and removed 

Ba’ath Party members from power. The failure to impose law and order allowed civil unrest and 

sectarian violence. Weakened states with unresolved ethnic and sectarian conflicts can become lawless, 

ungoverneable, and havens for terrorists (Kirmanc, 2013), (Haddad, 2011). This fueled the uprising of 

Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). ISIL is also known as the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria 

(ISIS). In 2014, ISIS occupied substantial territory in Syria and Iraq. Civil conflict in Iraq persists. ISIS 

continues to be a potent terrorist threat. ISIS has been known to use social media to recruit supporters 

from throughout the world, including the United States and Great Britain. ISIS remains a worldwide 

threat in spite of territorial losses in Iraq (Haddad, 2011). Iran supports Shi’a militia insurgents in 

opposition to United States forces and policies. In 2004, the Iraqi occupation government launched 

anti-terror media campaigns. “Terror has no Religion” sought to counter Sunni-inspired Al-Qaeda. 



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“Say No to Terror” followed. 350 videos and 60% of YouTube commentators responded negatively to 

“Say No to Terror”. Concerns were expressed regarding the format, agenda, and cultural and political 

barriers (al-Rawi, 2013). Former United States Chairman of the Joints Chiefs of Staff General Joseph 

Francis Dunford Jr. held a conference of Allied Defense Chiefs in 2018. Military progress has been 

made against violent extremism in Iraq. “The military can deal with the symptoms of terrorism, but it 

cannot solve the root cause (Dunford)”. General Dunford clarifies the need to “describe the nature of 

the challenges...in context...and craft more comprehensive solutions to deal with violent extremism 

(Dunford)”. The conference acknowledged concern that military interventions promote recruitment to 

terror groups (Garamone, 2018). 

 

2. Neuroscience of Persuasion 

Activation observed within certain brain regions of interest (ROI) can be predictive of future behaviors. 

Asymmetric activation, left greater than right, of ROI’s in the frontal lobe poles indicates engagement. 

Activation of the ROI in the Medial Prefrontal Cortex (MPFC) indicates adoption of new behavior 

(Falk, 2010*),(Burns, 2018). Activation of the MPFC predicts behavior better than the self-reported 

intentions of subjects (Falk, 2010**). Activation of the ROI in the Right Lateral Prefrontal Cortex 

(RLPFC) indicates counter-arguing (Burns, 2018), (Schmidt, 2018). Counter-arguing is argument in 

opposition to a stated position. Counter-arguing is analogous to message resistance. The RLPFC 

communicates with and counter-balances the MPFC in normative, decision-making. This 

communication occurs below the level of consciousness. Messages selected on the basis of brain 

activity in focus groups can be generalized to whole populations (Falk, 2012), (Falk, 2013). This study 

measures brain activity by functional near infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) (Ferrari, 2012). The 

prefrontal cortex recruits and organizes input and activity of large brain networks. Activation of the 

Medial Prefrontal Cortex (MPFC) indicates shifts in brain networks. Cooper reports shifts in brain 

networks predict behavior (Cooper, 2018). When a person changes one’s mind that person is switching 

brain networks. The MPFC is a switch that shifts networks based on disparate input including stored 

memory, emotion, and active sensory input. The switching process occurs below conscious awareness. 

We are all subject to subconscious social influences. Social influences, including electronic media, can 

affect decision-making. Normal people can be prosyletized and radicalized.  

 

3. Methods 

Participants: Participants consisted of 24 male adults of Iraqi citizenship and ethnicity, planning to vote 

in the 2018 Iraqi election, and residing in Amman, Jordan (age M = 23.52 years, SD = 3.07). All were 

Arabic speakers and provided informed consent in Arabic to participate in this study. All participants 

were paid for their participation. Johns Hopkins University Institutional Review Board approved the 



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study. Of the 24 participants, 12 were Sunni Muslim and 12 were Shi’a Muslim. All subjects were 

assessed to hold high sectarian bias using the sectarianism scale described below. Participants were 

recruited by phone to participate in a video marketing study. The authors obtained permission to use 

the data for secondary analysis for the purpose of this paper. Sample size was determined based on the 

maximum number of participants that could conduct the study, given limited time, facilities, and 

resources. A priori power analysis using effect sizes in previous social neuroscience work with type I 

error of 5 percent and 80 percent power suggests a sample size of 14 participants. 

 

4. Materials 

Neural measurements were conducted with a NIRSport imaging unit, which is a Functional 

Near-infrared Spectroscopy (fNIRS) device manufactured by NIRx (nirx.net/nirsport). This device was 

selected because of its small size, portability, and greater ecological validity than other neural imaging 

alternatives. The NIRSport unit has eight light sources and eight light detectors configured to measure 

the prefrontal cortex over 23 channels of data. One drawback of the NIRSport is limited spatial 

coverage and the inability to measure activity in deep brain structures. Measurements include the 

medial prefrontal cortex, frontal poles, dorsal and lateral prefrontal cortex. These regions in the outer 

cortex and are several centimeters in size, within the measurement resolution of fNIRS of 1-3 cm. Four 

headcaps of different sizes where used to affix the light sources and detectors to participants. Spatial 

positioning was standardized using the 10-10 UI external positioning system. Light intensity was 

emitted at 760 nm and 850nm wavelengths with a 7.81Hz sampling rate. Four video commercials 

intended to reduce viewer sectarianism using different persuasion tactics were used a stimulus in this 

study.  

Video One, labelled “Chess”, is an animated chess game. Opposing pieces represent Al-Qaeda and 

Shi’a militia. The animated chess pieces from opposing sides fight each other with graphic violence. 

The video ends with the two militia leaders (Kings) walking off the board together. This video suggests 

participants in sectarian violence are being a used as pawns in a chess game. This is meant to be a 

shocking and provocative appeal, motivating viewers to challenge their sectarian beliefs and seek more 

information. Video Two, labelled “Nice”, shows two elementary school boys as friends. The boys pray 

together. Time is forwarded to show the friends grown as adults. It becomes apparent that one friend is 

Sunni and the other is Shi’a. This demonstrates the similarity between Sunni and Shi’a sects. This is 

intended as a positively framed message encouraging sectarian unity. Video Three, labelled “Grad”, 

shows the graduation of a group of students. A young female graduate and her proud mother are 

portrayed. Then there is an explosion. The video switches to the graduate’s mother crying over her 

deceased daughter. The video narrates “ISIL destroys families”. This is meant as a shocking and 

provocative appeal. Video Four, labelled “Basheer”, is a monologue by popular Iraqi comedian Ahmad 



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Al-Basheer. Basheer argues at length that Iraq should disband Shi’a militias and avoid sectarianism. 

This is meant to be a somber and conciliatory appeal, focusing on similarities and Iraqi national 

identity over sectarian identities. 

 

5. Procedure 

Prior to viewing any videos, all participants completed a survey measuring their level of sectarianism, 

defined as a bias toward their own sect, Sunni or Shi’a Islam, and a prejudice toward other sects. The 

survey consisted of eight questions, rated on a scale ranging from 0 (strongly disagree) to 10 (strongly 

agree). The eight questions consisted of the following: 1) I would not mind if a qualified [Sunni/Shi’a] 

was appointed as my boss; 2) I have often felt admiration for [Sunni/Shi’a]s living here; 3) Most 

politicians care too much about [Sunni/Shi’a] and not enough about the average Iraqi; 4) I would never 

marry a [Sunni/Shi’a]; 5) Sunnis and Shi’as are different in the way they practice Islam; 6) 

[Sunni/Shi’a] are different in the values they teach their children; 7) Sunnis and Shi’a are different in 

regards to their honesty/trustworthiness; 8) Sunnis and Shi’a can never be really comfortable with each 

other, even if they are close friends. Note that the [Sunni/Shia] in the above scale indicated the other 

sect, that was not the sect of the participant. Some of the items were reverse coded. The items were 

averaged to create a composite scale ranging from 0 to 10. Following the pre-video sectarian beliefs 

survey, participants watched the four anti-sectarian videos. Participants viewed baseline content for 30 

seconds, consisting of a blank screen in a dark, quiet room. Following each video, the participant would 

view a blank screen again for 30 seconds. The were 24 different permutations of video ordering. 

Participants were randomly assigned to a permutation, constrained such that for all 6 permutations 

beginning with a given video, half would be viewed by a Sunni and half would be viewed by a Shi’a. 

Immediately following each video, participants were asked to self-report on level of identification, 

response efficacy, and perceived effectiveness. This was done using a single item, 5-point Likert scale. 

Two weeks following initial data collection, the same eight-question sectarianism survey was 

re-administered to assess change in sectarianism following video intervention.  

 

6. Neural Data Processing 

fNIRS data was pre-processed using NIRSLab. Event markers captured the beginning and end of each 

video and baseline period. The length of each video is known, so reliable start/stop times for each 

baseline and video stimuli are recorded. Discontinuities in neural signals were removed. Several of the 

relevant channels were over-saturated. Four of these were repaired by interpolating over no more than 

15 frames (approximately 2 seconds). The others were discarded from analysis. This resulted in the 

exclusion of 2 participant’s data, leaving usable data for 22 participants. Band pass filtering was 

applied to all signals with a low cutoff frequency of 0.01 Hz and a high cutoff frequency of 0.2 Hz. 



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This effectively removed biometric noise in the neural signal data. A Principal Component Analysis 

(PCA) algorithm was used to identify and remove motion artifacts from the data. Light intensity was 

converted into a percentage change in oxygenated hemoglobin concentration relative to baseline using 

the modified Beer-Lambert law. The first and last 7 seconds of each video stimulus was truncated to 

account for delayed response due to the participant’s hemodynamic response function. Data for each 

channel were exported to a text file for statistical analysis using R. R is a free, popular, and open source 

statistical computing and graphics language and environment. Since fNIRS measures a relative 

frequency, an absolute activity measure was estimated by scaling the neural signal for each fontal pole 

between zero and one by subtracting the minimum value from the beginning of the baseline period 

through video completion, then dividing by the range in maximum to minimum over the same time 

period. For each frame (data point) the left value was divided by the right value and this value was then 

divided by the sum of the two values. The log of the resulting value was used for calculations. 

 

 
Figure 1. fNIRS Channels Measuring A Priori Brain Regions of Interest 

 

We focus measurement in three key brain regions of interest. The level of engagement or disgust 

toward video content was estimated by asymmetry in the frontal poles. People with greater left than 

right activity experience engagement with stimuli, while people with greater right than left frontal pole 

activity experience disgust. We use the formula (L/R)/(L+R), where L and R refers to the brain activity 

in neural channels 11 and 13 respectively as indicated in Figure 1. Message adoption was estimated by 



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activity in the medial prefrontal cortex observed in channel 12. Counter-arguing toward stimulus was 

estimated by activity in the right lateral prefrontal cortex observed in channel 18.  

Four research questions are investigated in this experiment:  

R1: Are the videos cognitively engaging? We hypothesize that all four videos will cause cognitive 

engagement in participants as observed by a significant increase in left greater than right frontal pole 

activation (Channels 11 and 13) during the video compared to the blank screen viewed immediately 

prior.  

R2: Do the videos increase adoption of the message? We hypothesize that the published videos will not 

increase adoption. Increased adoption will result in decreased sectarianism. Lack of adoption will not 

reduce sectarianism. Adoption is shown by activity in the medial prefrontal cortex (channel 12). 

R3: Do the shocking, provocative videos affect counter-arguing? We hypothesize that the provocative 

videos, Video 1, the Chess video, and Video 3, the Grad video, will exhibit higher levels of counter 

arguing. The un-provocative, pleasant videos, Video 2, the Nice video, and Video 4, the Basheer video, 

will not exhibit counter-arguing. Counter-arguing is shown by activity in the right lateral prefrontal 

cortex (Channel 18).  

R4: Does decreased counter-arguing (Channel 18) increase message integration and adoption (Chanel 

12)? We hypothesize that videos with high cognitive engagement and low counter-arguing will exhibit 

higher activity in the medial prefrontal cortex.  

Behavior is not limited to individual regions of interest, but is more reflected in changes in larger 

circuits. Overall, a pattern of increased engagement, decreased counter-arguing, and increased adoption 

will likely correlate with decreased sectarianism. The decrease in sectarianism will be measured 

between the pre-video survey and the two week post-video survey. All statistical tests will apply the 

student T-test to compare the block average of neural signals while participants viewed stimulus 

material against those while they viewed blank screens prior to stimulus. The t-test will be corrected for 

heteroskedasticity. 

 

7. Results: Summary of Key Findings 

Reduced sectarianism is the intended effect of all four videos in this study. The sectarian survey has 

high Cronbach’s alpha equalling 0.78, indicating high internal consistency. There is no observed 

difference in sectarian score between Sunni and Shi’a. All four videos were engaging (Table 1). There 

was no effect of engagement on sectarianism (Table 2). None of the videos shows increased neural 

activity associated with adoption of new behavior (Table 3). Video 2 shows decreased neural activity 

association with adoption (Table 4). None of the videos show an effect of adoption on sectarianism 

(Table 5). None of the videos show increased neural activity associated with counter-arguing (Table 6). 

Videos 2 and 4 show decreased neural activity associated with counter-arguing (Table 7). Only video 4, 



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the Basheer video, showed decreased sectarianism. None of the published videos, Videos 1, 2, and 3, 

had any effect in reducing sectarianism. This confirms Iraqi public opinion that public service 

announcements against sectarian violence are not effective. Video 4, the Basheer video, has not been 

published. The Basheer video shows decreased sectarianism as a function of decreased counter-arguing 

(Table 8). We believe this indicates decreased resistance to the message. 

 

8. Findings 

Asymmetric activation of the frontal poles, left greater than right, measured in Channels 11 and 13, 

indicates engagement. All four videos show significant increase in engagement according to 

two-sample t-tests comparing baseline and stimulus block-average: 

 

Table 1. Increased Engagement 

Video p-value 

Chess 0.0007 

Nice 0.0010 

Grad 0.0170 

Basheer 0.0009 

 

 
Figure 2. Engagement Measured in Channels 11 and 13 

 

There is no significant effect of engagement on sectarianism in a regression model: 

 



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Table 2. Effect of Engagement on Sectarianism 

Video p-value R-Squared 

Chess 0.1486 0.12 

Nice 0.4152 0.04 

Grad 0.9213 0.00 

Basheer 0.3555 0.05 

 

Activation of the medial prefrontal cortex, measured in Channel 12, indicates adoption of new behavior. 

None of the four videos shows increased adoption: 

 

Table 3. Increased Adoption 

Video p-value 

Chess 0.675 

Nice 0.9368 

Grad 0.2251 

Basheer 0.7183 

 
Figure 3. Adoption Measured in Channel 12 

 

Video 2, the Nice video, shows decreased adoption: 

 

 



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Table 4. Decreased Adoption 

Video p-value 

Chess 0.325 

Nice 0.0632 

Grad 0.7749 

Basheer 0.2817 

 

There is no effect of adoption on sectarianism in a regression model: 

 

Table 5. Effect of Adoption on Sectarianism 

Video p-value R-Squared 

Chess 0.3985 0.05 

Nice 0.5353 0.03 

Grad 0.9118 0.00 

Basheer 0.7791 0.00 

 

Activation of the right lateral prefrontal cortex, measured in Channel 18, indicates counter-arguing. 

None of the videos showed increased counter-arguing (Figure 4) in a one-tailed, two sample T-test: 

 

Table 6. Increased Counter-arguing 

Video p-value 

Chess 0.4917 

Nice 0.9664 

Grad 0.7636 

Bashir 0.9799 



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Figure 4. Counter-Arguing Measured in Channel 18 

 

Video 2, the Nice video, and Video 4, the Basheer video, shows decreased counter-arguing in a 

one-tailed, two-sample T-test comparing baseline and stimulus block-averages: 

 

Table 7. Decreased Counter-arguing 

Video p-value 

Chess 0.5083 

Nice 0.0335 

Grad 0.2364 

Basheer 0.0201 

 

Video 4, the Basheer video, shows decreased sectarianism as a function of counter-arguing in a 

regression model: 

 

Table 8. Effect of Counter-arguing on Sectarianism 

Video p-value R-Squared 

Chess 0.4176 0.04 

Nice 0.7784 0.00 

Grad 0.4225 0.04 

Basheer 0.0112 0.32 



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The Basheer video was not a published public service announcement. The Basheer video is the only 

video to demonstrate the effect of decreased sectarianism. This video is longer and allows the audience 

to identify with the speaker, a popular comedian and cultural icon, through evocative rhetoric. 

One individual scored a statistically significant increase in sectarianism, greater than two standard 

deviations above the mean. This was a twenty year old Sunni with a bachelor’s degree, with no known 

unusual characteristics compared to the rest of the population. 

 

9. Discussion: The Results Are Significant 

These findings confirm the impression that public service announcements are not effective in reducing 

sectarian violence. The findings are original. The Iraqi, Arab populations, Sunni and Sh’ia, have not 

been previously studied. Iraqi culture is not well understood by neuroscientists from Western, 

industrialized countries. These findings are relevant for local, regional, and world security. We evaluate 

the mental processes of engagement, adoption of new behavior, and decreased message resistance as a 

function of brain regions of interest. Adoption of new behaviors has been demonstrated to relate to 

activation of the medial prefrontal cortex. A favorable profile of neural activity supporting behavior 

change might include high engagement (left greater than right frontal pole), increased adoption (medial 

prefrontal cortex), and decreased counter-arguing (right lateral prefrontal cortex) relating to decreased 

message resistance. The Basheer video most closely fits this profile. The Basheer video is engaging and 

has decreased message resistance relative to message adoption. The Basheer video is the only video 

which reduces sectarianism.  

All videos were engaging, none of the videos increased adoption, nor decreased sectarianism as a direct 

function of adoption. The provocative videos, video 1, the Chess video, and video 3, the Grad video, 

did not affect adoption or counter-arguing. Of the pleasant videos, the Nice video decreased adoption 

and counter-arguing, and the Basheer video decreased counter-arguing, but not adoption. The Nice 

video did not decrease sectarianism. The Basheer video decreased sectarianism. Each video has distinct 

features: Video 1, the Chess video, is violent, provocative, and engaging. The Chess video does not 

increase adoption or counter-arguing, nor does it decrease sectarianism. Video 2, the Nice video, is 

pleasant in tone, and engaging. The Nice video decreases adoption and counter-arguing, but does not 

decrease sectarianism. Video 3, the Grad video, depicts violence and is provocative, and engaging. The 

Grad video does not increase adoption or counter-arguing, nor does it decrease sectarianism. Video 4, 

the Basheer video is pleasant in tone, and engaging. The Basheer video does not decrease adoption but 

does decrease counter-arguing and sectarianism. The Basheer video decreases sectarianism as a 

function of counter-arguing, not adoption (Tables 5, 7). The results of the unpublished Basheer video 

suggest a relationship between reduction of counter-arguing in the right lateral prefrontal cortex 

(RLPFC) and reduction of sectarian beliefs: 



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Function of the RLPFC is complex and incompletely understood. Hutcherson describes the interplay 

between the ventromedial prefrontal cortex and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex in cognitive regulation 

generating decision-making (Hutcherson, 2012). The ventromedial and lateral prefrontal cortices 

cross-talk, arguing and counter-arguing back and forth, counter-balancing each other, resulting in 

normative processing below the level of consciousness. Anatomic differences in these regions affect 

cognitive processing (Schmidt, 2018). Attitudes and actions regarding sectarianism are a behavioral 

state. Transformative processes and influences affecting behaviors include engagement, identification, 

emotion, narrative immersion, reviewing previous experience, internal dialogue, innoculation, and 

resolving cognitive dissonance. Cognitive dissonance results from conflicting information, beliefs, or 

feelings, causing discomfort. Individuals tend to resolve the conflict by various mechanisms to achieve 

consistency to resolve discomfort (Festinger, 1957). Inoculation involves reinforcing previously held 

beliefs (Banas, 2010). Inoculation helps protect an individual against un-wanted change. The majority 

of Iraqis already reject violence and terrorism, and tend to view sectarianism as a recent, externally 

incited phenomenon, caused by the American invasion. The Basheer video is different from the 

published videos. Basheer is a popular comedian who addresses the audiences directly in a personal 

manner. The Basheer video is longer than the published videos. Iraqis identify with Basheer who is 

popular. Affirmation of core values increases the effectiveness of a message (Falk, 2015). Kaplan 

reports challenges to establish political beliefs can increase activity in the default mode network. The 

default network mode is associated with self-representation and disengagement from external reality 

(Kaplan, 2016). The audience relates to Basheer whose message reinforces negative perceptions of 

violence and terror. Innoculation of established beliefs against sectarian violence could explain the 

decrease in sectarianism seen in the Basheer video. Soutschek evaluated the role of Dorsolateral 

Prefrontal Cortex (DLPFC) in decision-making regarding cooperation. Previous studies, including 

those using functional magnetic resonance imaging, reported a correlation between cooperative 

behavior and DLPFC activity (Emonds, 2012). Soutschek used trans-cranial magnetic stimulation to 

disrupt the DLPFC while playing the prisoner’s dilemma game. In the prisoner’s dilemma game, the 

subject risks short-term loss, even if the other player has previously defected, to accrue long-term 

benefit. To make that strategic decision, the subject has to suppress the impulse to defect. This is an 

important cognitive control process. Disrupting the DLPFC magnetically disrupts that cognitive 

process. Incapacitating the DLPFC decreased cooperation rates. This was most pronounced when the 

partner had previously defected (Soutschek, 2015). This experiment demonstrates that the DLPFC 

contributes to strategic decision-making in the prisoner’s dilemma game. Soutschek infers the DLPFC 

plays a role in weighing long-term versus short term benefits. Prefrontal cortex is a relatively late 

evolutionary development, moderating behavior, allowing mutual altruism, among non-relatives, as a 

basis for cooperation and survival (Soutschek, 2015). “Few things are as fundamental to human 



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progress as our ability to arrive at a shared understanding of the world” (Kaplan, 2016). 

 

10. Limitations: Several Concerns Limit the Ability to Generalize These Results 

“Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) has become the gold standard for in vivo imaging of 

the human brain. In practice, fNIRS is a more convenient and less expensive technology than Fmri” 

(Cui, 2011). fNIRS correlates well with fMRI (Cui, 2011). fNIRS is limited relative to fMRI. fNIRS 

lacks the spatial discrimination of fMRI. The MPFC has voxels of function identified below the level of 

fNIRS discrimination. For example, activation of the MPFC predicts behavior change, whereas 

activation of the Dorsomedial Prefrontal Cortex (DMPFC) is more specifically associated with 

narrative immersion. This is a significant limitation since narrative immersion plays a key role in 

decision-making. The Ventromedial Prefrontal Cortex (VMPFC) plays multiple, varied roles including 

social, cognitive, and affective functions (Hiser, 2018). Confirmatory evaluation by fMRI may be 

necessary for better spatial resolution. Similar limitations likely affect other ROI including the RLPFC. 

fNIRS has a decreased Signal-to-noise Ratio (SNR) than fMRI. fNIRS can not access deep brain 

structures, whereas fMRI can (Cui, 2011).  

Measuring behavioral change is problematic. All subjects were male and education levels varied, 

although this was not controlled. This study assumes a relationship between extreme beliefs and the 

capacity, willingness, and propensity to commit violence. Implicit is the assumption that reducing 

sectarianism will reduce sectarian violence. The sectarian survey has not been validated or used in 

other settings. The study design may have inappropriately increased engagement scores. Videos were 

contrasted with a blank screen. Instead of a blank screen between videos, it might be useful instead to 

use videos with some neutral content. The videos do not generate a large range of signal strength to 

facilitate discrimination. Future studies should create a greater range of output values across input 

stimuli. The effects of one video lasts well past the baseline/rest period and into the subsequent stimuli. 

This may contaminate findings. Dynamic changes occur within the span of a single video, between 

videos, and beyond. Subsequent events, including sleep, may affect integration of changes.  

It is reasonable to question whether any single, brief intervention may change deeply rooted, 

inter-generational beliefs and biases. Motivational states play a role in behavior change. Falk’s smoking 

cessation studies involved subjects who expressed a desire to change behavior to quit smoking. 

Motivation was not addressed in this study. The subjects in this study are highly sectarian, and in focus 

groups did not express any desire to change that fact. It is reasonable to infer that the subjects were not 

likely motivated to decrease sectarianism. One subject significantly increased sectarian beliefs for 

unknown reasons. Emotion plays a role in prefrontal cortical, cognitive processing (Dor’e, 2019*), 

(Kaplan, 2016). The predictive value of activation of regions of interest is moderated by emotional 

influences (Dor’e, 2019)**. Emotional states were not addressed in this study. The focus groups offer 



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insights into thoughts and emotions: The videos elicited opinions and revealed mood states. The violent 

Chess video evoked skepticism motivating a desire to seek more information. Common responses to 

the Nice video was that all Muslims should get along and that sectarianism is a relatively new 

phenomenon. The Grad video message is that “ISIL destroys families”. The Grad video evoked 

emotion, but failed to address sectarianism, more addressing terror and violence. The greater length of 

the Basheer video is problematic for confounding error in fNIRS measurement. 

The majority of people in the Middle East reject Al Qaeda and ISIL. This is already widely accepted. 

The subjects are Iraqi expatriates residing in Amman, Jordan. This may indicate biases limiting 

generalizations to the Iraqi population. This may include personal experience with sectarian violence 

which may have led to expatriation. The authors acknowledge cultural and social biases, including 

Western origins, and military backgrounds and associations, including service in Iraq and the global 

war on terror. 

 

11. Future Areas of Inquiry 

This study provides interesting findings which should be explored. There is a need to develop and 

identify messages which activate adoption in the MPFC to decrease sectarian beliefs. Further research 

is needed to evaluate the relation of adoption to counter-arguing affecting target behaviors. Further 

study is needed of the relation between counter-arguing and decreased sectarianism including 

demographic influences. Further research is needed to optimize the location of the counter-arguing 

region of interest for each subject, as this may vary by individual and with cap fitting. fNIRS is a 

cost-effective tool to measure the effectiveness of video messages. Confirmation and delineation of key 

findings with Functional MagneticResonance (fMRI) imaging would be useful. 

It may be useful to develop simple tools for field use which focus solely on the MPFC and RLPFC, 

create better signal discrimination, upload data to a central processor, develop streamlined analytic 

algorithms, including exception and error handling, and provide quick feedback to the field. A direct 

measurement of MPFC and RLPFC activation in the field would be useful, perhaps a using color 

indicator. It might be interesting to monitor continuous telemetry output of ROIs during various stimuli, 

including speeches, debates, movies, and athletic events. Video messages could be formulated, selected, 

and tailored to population segments. This could optimize efficacy and efficiency, including likelihood 

of propagation, or going viral. Ineffective media campaigns waste resources and good will. "Mass 

media can powerfully affect [health] decision-making"(Falk, 2016). Further study may provide insight 

into how social media promotes radicalization, including domestically in the United States. Many 

neurologic processes underlying behavior change are not under conscious control. Normal people are 

vulnerable to subliminal messaging, and some people are vulnerable to radicalization and violence. 

Likewise, we are subject to ethical countermeasures, including education.  



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The authors hope this investigation will stimulate discussion and research regarding sectarian violence 

in Iraq and elsewhere. Future areas of inquiry include exploring and refining methods to study how 

social messages lead to behaviors, including organized violence. Studying violent acts of terror is 

limited by ethical and practical constraints. Surrogate violent behavior, such as sport-related fighting, 

may be an appropriate venue to study violent beliefs and behavior. Naturalistic and retrospective 

investigations might be useful to gain insight in designing more rigorous studies. Future studies might 

include characterizing the mental transition from sectarianism to planning to implementation of 

violence. Negative behaviors may be countered, redirected, and reformed by positive messages which 

activate the brain. Persuasive messages can change behavior. We seek to reduce sectarian-inspired 

violence in Iraq. Messages should be legitimate, transparent, and respectful (Aly, 2014). Iraq has an 

ancient, venerated history of heterogeneous cultures. Iraq has endured millenia of invasions and 

decades of brutal dictatorship, war, and domestic violence. It would be useful to learn how social media 

promotes radicalization. Enduring peace, based on pluralistic tolerance, is worthy of our best efforts. 

We seek to honor the commitment and sacrifices of those who served to secure the future and freedom 

of Iraq. The impact of sectarianism in Iraq, the Middle East, and the world, merit further inquiry.  

 

12. Conclusion 

Public Service Announcements (PSAs) do not reduce sectarian violence in Iraq. This experiment 

measures neural activity in subjects viewing PSAs against sectarianism. Neural activity is correlated 

with changes in sectarianism. Infrared spectroscopy measures activity in three key brain regions of 

interest. Activity in these brain regions involve: (1) getting attention, (2) changing behavior, and (3) 

resisting behavioral change. Three PSA videos fail to activate behavioral change and have no effect on 

sectarianism. A fourth, un-published video decreases resistance to behavioral change, decreasing 

sectarianism. This suggests a potential relation between the brain region which changes behavior and 

the region which resists behavioral change. Messages which activate new behavior need to identified 

and studied in relation to their effect on sectarianism. Infrared spectroscopy is a convenient, 

inexpensive, and effective tool to identify persuasive messages to reduce sectarian violence in Iraq. 

Cost effective analysis of brain activity can assist selection of messages which may go viral to reduce 

sectarian violence. This may be a useful tool to ethically influence behaviors which reduce violence 

and enhance security. 

 

 

 

 

 



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