Church Membership and Church Attendance across Time 
– A Trend Analysis Considering Differences between East and 
West Germany  

Daniel Lois

Abstract: On the basis of ALLBUS data this paper examines for the period under ob-
servation 1980-2008 how the probability of church membership and the frequency 
of churchgoing change depending on age, calendar time and birth cohort. In ac-
cordance with conventional secularisation theories, it is shown for Western and 
Eastern Germany that the share of individuals with a religious denomination in the 
periods 1980-2008 and 1991-2008 is continuing to fall. The general secularisation 
trend is however counteracted by positive age effects on the probability of church 
membership (in Western and Eastern Germany) and on the frequency of churchgo-
ing (in Western Germany). A form of secularisation which has received little atten-
tion so far in this context lies in the fact that the positive age effect on church attend-
ance among Western German persons weakens signifi cantly with ongoing calendar 
time. In view of cohort effects, it is shown for Western Germany that in particular the 
1946-1953 birth cohort, which was considerably infl uenced by the 68 movement, is 
typifi ed by low levels of religious participation. A revitalisation of ties to churches 
is shown in the new Federal States in the cohorts from 1961 onwards, which were 
socialised during the dissolution of the GDR and after reunifi cation. 

Keywords: Secularisation · Church membership · Church attendance · Trend 
analysis · APC analysis

1 Introduction 

For many decades, sociologists have described the development of religion and 
the church under the conditions of a modern society as a crisis scenario. The fun-
damental presumption here is that modernisation processes such as urbanisation, 
industrialisation and rationalisation have caused various developments which are 
generally summed up under the umbrella term of secularisation. These include a 
reduction in the social standing of the traditional Christian forms of religion, falling 

Comparative Population Studies – Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft
Vol. 36, 1 (2011): 161-192 (Date of release: 24.11.2011)

© Federal Institute for Population Research 2011  URL: www.comparativepopulationstudies.de
DOI: 10.4232/10.CPoS-2011-04en   URN: urn:nbn:de:bib-cpos-2011-04en1



•    Daniel Lois162

acceptance of the churches and their teachings, increasing renunciation of church 
membership or a weakening willingness to participate in church life (Berger 1973; 
Wilson 1982; Bruce 2002).  

The core of the secularisation theory is based on allegedly unambiguous empiri-
cal fi ndings indicating an ongoing decline in religion in Germany and Europe. There 
is considerable empirical evidence of the decreasing signifi cance of Christian faith 
or of a fall in the share of church members and in the frequency of churchgoing (e.g. 
Jagodzinski/Dobbelaere 1993: 79-88.; Pollack/Pickel 1999: 473-776, 2003: 457-460; 
Wolf 2007; Voas 2008: 28). However, these studies do not simultaneously take ac-
count of age, period and cohort effects. In order to clarify the related problems, a 
brief defi nition of these three time dimensions will be given below. 

(1) Cohort and socialisation effects cover differences between various genera-
tions. This centres on the presumption that individual characteristics such as reli-
gious convictions are acquired during childhood and youth. The formative phase 
of socialisation is typifi ed here by various contextual conditions (events, socioeco-
nomic characteristics) and leaves behind a lasting infl uence on the further course of 
life (Ryder 1965). (2) Age and lifecycle effects relate to changes within birth cohorts 
which are caused by the status of a person in the lifetime. Chronological ageing, 
that is the advance of time after birth, is accompanied by biological ageing (physi-
ological changes in the body), social ageing (changes in social relations) and psy-
chological ageing (changes in attitudes, values and dispositions) (Glenn 2005). (3) 
Differences between various calendar times which equally concern all cohorts and 
age groups are designated as period effects. They include infl uences caused by the 
historical context, such as a typical spirit of the age or sociostructural changes that 
exert an impact on individuals.

If no statistical distinction is made between age, period and cohort effects, it is 
no longer possible to unambiguously interpret trend developments. Thus, there is a 
risk for instance that supposed cohort effects actually mask potential infl uences of 
age (ecological fallacy). Jagodzinski and Dobbelaere (1993: 82) are certainly aware 
of these problems when they write in the framework of their cohort analysis: “We 
cannot rule out that religious participation increases with age, although we do not 
consider the hypothesis to be highly plausible to such a general degree” (translated 
by the author). Voas (2008: 27) observes that religiosity is declining in Europe in a 
comparison between various cohorts, and notes with regard to possible age ef-
fects: “The suggestion that the higher religiosity of earlier birth cohorts merely re-
fl ects an age-related return to faith can be rejected.” However, the authors of neither 
study provide proof backing up their supposition that there is no age effect.      

Due to the lack of age-period-cohort (APC) analyses, the following questions 
are ambiguous at the present stage of research: Is there in addition to negative 
cohort and period effects a positive age effect which runs counter to the inter-age 
secularisation trend? Do the direction and the strength of this age effect change in 
the course of calendar time or in comparison between various birth cohorts? Is the 
secularisation process primarily refl ected as a negative period effect which affects 
all birth cohorts and age groups equally? Do, furthermore, certain birth cohorts 
prove to be particularly amenable or resistant to the secularisation process? 



Church Membership and Church Attendance across Time     • 163

This article aims to investigate these questions in the context of an APC analysis 
for the Federal Republic on the basis of trend data of the cumulated ALLBUS. When 
it comes to church membership and church attendance, two dependent variables 
are observed which can be attributed to the dimension of ritual practice.1 Develop-
ment in Eastern Germany since 1991 receives special attention in the analyses. After 
the repression of the church and of religion during the period of Socialism, a much 
discussed question is whether a revitalisation of adherence to the church can be 
observed in Eastern Germany after reunifi cation. Since the studies carried out on 
this topic so far (e.g. Jagodzinski 2000; Pollack 2000; Meulemann 2003) are largely 
based on data until the end of the 1990s, an analysis of the current trend develop-
ments appears to be required.

2 Theoretical starting conditions: secularisation, religious market 
model and life cycle effects 

The discussion below focuses on which age, period and cohort effects on church 
membership and church attendance can be anticipated in the period under obser-
vation 1980-2008. In addition to the conventional macro-level theories of social 
change, more recent approaches such as the religious market model and the life 
cycle effects, to which relatively little attention had so far been paid, are also taken 
up to answer this question.   

2.1 Conventional secularisation theories: the tension between 
religiosity and modernisation 

The conventional secularisation theories refer to the loss of signifi cance of religion 
in the course of advancing modernisation (e.g. Berger 1973; Wilson 1982; Bruce 
2002). Fundamental to this hypothesis is the idea that the processes of modernisa-
tion and religion are in confl ict with one another. It is above all macro-level process-
es of societal change, such as rationalisation and functional differentiation, which 
are primarily regarded as being a cause of this, and these will be briefl y outlined 

1 According to the present state of research, the latent construct “religiosity” can be sub-divided 
into several dimensions, including the dimension of religious conviction (the confession of re-
ligious tenets of faith), the dimension of religious experience (the subjective religious experi-
ence), the cognitive dimension (the knowledge of the teachings contained in a religion), the di-
mension of ritual practice (participation in church life) and the dimension relating to the ethical 
consequences of faith (Glock 1954). 



•    Daniel Lois164

below.2 With regard to period and cohort effects, an attempt will be made here as 
far as possible to name historical periods and birth cohorts for which the above 
processes are particularly relevant. 

The process of rationalisation (Weber 1972) describes the spread of a competitive 
economy which is orientated towards profi tability and the enforcement of a scientif-
ic world view characterised by thinking in terms of cause-and-effect. The principles 
that are valid for scientifi c predictions and explanations enter everyday thinking and 
contradict a world view which is built on religious meaning. The increasing amena-
bility of processes of human life to being planned and controlled leads to a “demys-
tifi cation” of the world. Its interpretation is no longer orientated towards uncontrol-
lable, inexplicable powers from the next world, but towards physical, psychological 
and social laws (cf. Jagodzinski/Dobbelaere 1993: 69-76; Pickel 2011: 137-143). One 
of the most important preconditions for rationalisation processes should be the 
general expansion in education, which started in the Federal Republic in the 1950s, 
and its dynamics did not weaken until the mid-1990s (Becker 2006). Negative cohort 
effects can be anticipated for the cohorts from 1950 onwards, since this is when the 
process of higher qualifi cation accelerates (cf. Becker 2006: 37-40).3

In the context of the ongoing process of functional differentiation (Luhmann 
1977), it is presumed that autonomous, and self-referential function systems (e.g. 
politics, economics, law, religion, science) with their own rules are formed. It there-
fore can be derived that religion is continuously renouncing societal functions which 
it previously carried out. This relates for instance to a withdrawal from schooling, 
social care or healthcare. In the course of the differentiation, religion and the church 
lose their power to interpret societal development and their infl uence as an agency 
for socialisation. This makes it increasingly diffi cult for religious organisations to 
pass on their norms and values and to infl uence political decisions which are impor-
tant for them (cf. Wilson 1982; Pickel 2011: 152, 161).

A further hypothesis is that the rationalisation process was favoured by the 
spread of urban lifestyles. Various technological changes play an important role 

2 The following depiction need not be exhaustive. The selection is orientated in line with devel-
opments which appear to be particularly relevant to individual cohorts or to the selected period 
under observation. A full overview of the highly-heterogeneous secularisation theories can be 
found for instance in Pickel (2011: 137-177). It should furthermore be pointed out that criticism 
of the secularisation paradigm has become more pronounced in the last ten years. For instance, 
the USA, which is one of the most economically and culturally highly developed countries in the 
world, still has a high level of religious vitality. This contradicts the tension that is supposed to 
exist between religion and modernisation. Critical discussions of the secularisation paradigm 
can be found in Pickel (2011: 137-226) or Pollack (2009: 60-104).

3 In accordance with a “rationalised” world view, the individual decision to belong to a Church 
is connected to a cost-benefi t balance. It is noticeable in this context that signifi cant waves of 
withdrawal from church membership took particularly place in years in which the individual 
fi scal burden considerably increased as a result of special levies (Eicken/Schmitz-Veltin 2010). 
Within the base period under observation, this particularly includes the year 1991 in which the 
solidarity levy was introduced; moreover, the years 1983, 1993, 1998 and 2007 in which VAT 
was increased may potentially be considered. The respective additional fi scal strains might 
have contributed towards a negative period effect on the probability of Church membership.



Church Membership and Church Attendance across Time     • 165

here. As a result of the expansion of private television and of the rapid growth of the 
Internet, the 1980s and 1990s experienced a higher level of media density and me-
dia diversity. Statements from the church which were previously unquestioned are 
hence undermined more frequently. At the same time, secular lifestyles came about 
which were caused to a major degree by the increased availability of leisure activi-
ties in the cities which compete with exercising religious practice. It is presumed in 
terms of the overall development that it leads to a “detraditionalisation” of private 
life since it has increased the possibilities open to the individual to break out of his/
her narrow, socially-controlled life-world (cf. Jagodzinski/Dobbelaere 1993; Pickel 
2011: 141). 

The increase in socioeconomic prosperity which is typical of modernisation is 
regarded as a further cause of secularisation processes (Norris/Inglehart 2004). The 
increase in prosperity is linked to a reduction in existential uncertainties. Through 
the increase in the standard of living, the expansion of social security systems, the 
achievement of technological progress and the refi nement of medicine, the protec-
tion against threats to external and internal security becomes stronger. The need 
for religious securities and compensations falls as a result of growing possibilities 
to control society and nature (cf. Pollack 2009: 70). From a cohort perspective, in 
particular the 1922-1934 cohorts, who can be regarded as the War and post-War 
generation, grew up under conditions of material need. If these socialisation infl u-
ences have a long-term impact, the 1922-1934 cohort should be typifi ed by a higher 
level of religious affi liation and religious practice.  

The change in values has also exerted a potentially positive impact on seculari-
sation. The individualisation process in the post-War period, which is interpreted in 
the sense of releasing from traditional social ties (Beck 1986) was accompanied by a 
change in social values. This can already be demonstrated in the 1950s, but jumped 
rapidly in the 1960s and at the beginning of the 1970s (Klages 1988). The changes 
in values are typifi ed above all by a fall in the signifi cance of duty and conformity 
values (e.g. discipline, obedience, fulfi lling obligations, submission, loyalty) and at 
the same time an increase in the signifi cance of self-development values (e.g. eman-
cipation from authorities, equal treatment, democracy and creativity). As potential 
causes of the change in values, various modernisation processes are discussed in 
turn which range from the increase in prosperity and the expansion of the social 
state in the post-War period via the sociopsychological consequences of expansion 
in education, through to the media revolution (Klages 1988: 51-59). The change in 
values can be connected with a turning away from religion and the churches, since 
the orientation towards self-development values is accompanied by a rejection of 
external demands such as religious norms which are asserted in an authoritative 
manner. As a result of their traditionalistic value system and hierarchical under-
standing of authority, the churches no longer did justice to the now prevalent expec-
tations and values of people in the course of the rapid value change (Klages 1984: 
95-100). From a cohort perspective, particularly the so called “68 generation” is said 
to be characterised by emancipation from the church, which was regarded as an 
institution of the dominant duty and acceptance values. According to various stud-
ies on the change in values (e.g. Klein/Pötschke 2004) it is particularly the 1946-1953 



•    Daniel Lois166

cohort (“APO generation”) which was affected by the student movement and the 
events related to the year 1968. 

2.2 The religious market model and developments in Eastern Germany 
after 1990 

The religious market model was developed by US sociologists (Stark/Bainbridge 
1987; Stark/Iannaccone 1994; Stark 1999), and its core statements contradict the 
conventional secularisation theories. From this perspective, the individual “de-
mand” for religion has not fallen in the course of the modernisation process. It is 
rather regarded as an inherent expression of universal human needs for security 
and answers to existential questions. The desire to overcome the diffi culties of life 
and one’s own mortality leads to a situation in which – as compensation for a lack 
of rationally-examinable solutions – religious faith contents such as a life after death 
are accepted. In the market model, religious diversity is based primarily on what is 
on offer from the churches and on the extent to which the religious market is regu-
lated by the State. A fall in religious vitality can be traced in this regard to the fact 
that the monopoly churches are no longer able to satisfactorily meet the religious 
needs of the “individualised” faithful. If a large number of religious “entrepreneurs” 
compete on the market, the seeking faithful will once again fi nd a supply that cor-
responds to their preferences. The religious market model is hence a purely supply-
orientated rational choice approach.

The religious market model leads to some hypotheses regarding the conse-
quences of the historically most signifi cant event which occurred within the period 
under observation: the German reunifi cation in 1990. Germany is a special case 
because of the East-West differences which are highly pronounced in questions 
of religiosity. In cultural terms, these differences result from the fact that Western 
Germany has always been strongly infl uenced by the Southern German Catholic 
cultural tradition, whereas the liberal-to-secular currents of the largely Protestant 
North East are dominant in Eastern Germany (cf. Pickel 2003). In the medium term, 
these divergences were amplifi ed by decades of experience with systems that were 
diametrically opposed in political terms. In the course of “forced secularisation” 
(Meulemann 2004), the share of people with no denomination in the former GDR 
increased, from no more than 5-8 % in 1950, to roughly 70 % in 1989 (Pollack 2000: 
2). State repression expressed itself in a number of measures addressed against 
the church, which in particular were carried out in the second half of the 1950s. 
These included the arrest of church workers, the impediment of religious events, 
the promotion of religious disaffi liation in companies, censorship of religious con-
tents from the media and the abolition of the state collection of church tax via the 
tax offi ces. Particularly serious consequences resulted from the introduction of the 
state-organised “Jugendweihe” (youth consecration), which suppressed confi rma-
tion on a massive scale. It should also be pointed out that “historical materialism” 
which has been introduced by State socialism was an ideological alternative to tran-
scendental beliefs which was shared by broad groups of the population into the 
1980s (cf. Storch 2003; Meulemann 2004). 



Church Membership and Church Attendance across Time     • 167

What development can now be anticipated in the time after reunifi cation? Ac-
cording to the secularisation theories, one may presume for Eastern Germany that 
there would be a further downward trend after 1990 – possibly after a return to the 
level corresponding to the modernisation level (Pickel 2010). One would however 
have to presume here that the secularisation theories are based on a picture of the 
permanent fall of religion without the possibility of a return to a former level (Voas 
2008: 40-44). On the basis of the religious market model, it can be predicted, by 
contrast, that there would be a revitalisation of religion after the fall of state repres-
sion and a restoration of a religious market. Even if no entirely free religious market 
came about after reunifi cation because of Article 140 of the Basic Law (Grundges-
etz), there is greater scope for competition than has previously been (cf. Jagodzinski 
2000: 54-57). Accordingly, an increase of church membership and church attend-
ance can be expected from 1991 onwards. From a cohort perspective, the weakest 
adherence to the church should be anticipated in the 1945-1965 cohorts. These 
groups of individuals can be referred to as GDR cohorts since they were infl uenced 
in their youth by an established Socialist state. A revitalisation of religion, by con-
trast, can be anticipated in the 1961-1974 and 1975-1990 cohorts, who were social-
ised during the dissolution phase of the GDR and after reunifi cation (cf. Meulemann 
2003: 274-275). 

There is already a detailed study by Pollack (2000) on the development of re-
ligiosity in Eastern Germany following reunifi cation. It reaches the conclusion that, 
fi rstly, a loss of signifi cance of religion and the church has continued after 1989. 
This is expressed in marked waves of membership resignations from the popular 
Christian Churches from 1992 onwards, which appears to have been particularly 
motivated by avoiding having to pay the church tax. Secondly, however, there are 
also indications of a trend towards consolidation of membership of the popular 
churches, expressing itself in a slight increase in those joining the churches after 
1989, a temporary increase in the christening rates and a slight increase in the share 
of those attending religious services. Meulemann (2003) reaches the conclusion 
that the East-West difference in various faith contents in comparison between two 
measurement times, 1991 and 1998, has remained constant; at the same time, how-
ever, one can observe a tendency towards a revitalisation of faith in the youngest 
cohort surveyed (cohorts from 1974). In an international comparison, the lack of 
revitalisation of religion in Eastern Germany appears to be more of an exception. 
Pickel (2010) shows that the proportion of church members increases considerably 
in most Eastern European states (especially in Russia, Bulgaria and Lithuania) since 
1990. 

2.3 Age and lifecycle effects or the question: “How does religiosity 
change across the life course?”

Whereas secularisation can be primarily understood as intergenerational change, 
lifecycle effects relate to the conditions which determine the extent of individual re-
ligiosity in the respective life phase. There is so far no standard theory on the basis 
of which infl uences on religiosity exerted by age can be predicted. In the Literature 



•    Daniel Lois168

however, several models can be found that assume the shape of the age effect. Bahr 
(1970) distinguishes between four patterns: (1) According to the stability model, 
there is no independent age effect. The empirical positive correlation between age 
and church attendance is accordingly an artefact, possibly caused by cohort effects. 
(2) The traditional model predicts a drop in religious practice between the ages of 
18 and 30, followed by an increase. (3) In the framework of the family cycle model 
it is presumed that the frequency of churchgoing increases after the transition into 
marriage, climaxes when children reach the age of fi ve or older and falls once more 
after all children have left home. (4.) The “disengagement” model fi nally presumes 
a fall in the frequency of churchgoing in advanced age.  

The state of research on age-specifi c changes in religiosity can be summed up 
as follows: Various studies indicate the existence of an age effect. These particu-
larly include two studies on the basis of panel data (Lois 2011; Argue et al. 1999), 
as well as APC analyses of the frequency of churchgoing on the basis of trend data 
from the United States (Miller/Nakamura 1996; Schwadel et al. 2009; Schwadel 
2010). The fi ndings on the form of the age effect are not unambiguous. The results 
of most studies indicate a monotone increase in religiosity across the life course 
(Miller/Nakamura 1996; Argue et al. 1999). Additionally, for church attendance and 
the subjective importance of religion, there are however also indications of a (tem-
porary) reduction in the transition from youth to adulthood (Uecker et al. 2007; Petts 
2009). The stability and “disengagement” models are however hardly supported by 
research.  

With regard to the explanation of age effects, only a small number of arguments 
are found which favour a direct, causal effect of age on religiosity. One of the hy-
potheses put forward here is that people become increasingly aware of their own 
mortality as they age, so that particularly the belief in a life after death should in-
crease (Stark/Bainbridge 1987: 50). Moreover, the patterns named by Bahr (1970) 
already imply several indirect explanations. For instance, the family cycle model is 
linked with the idea that changes in the frequency of churchgoing over a lifecycle 
can be traced back to biographical transitions such as marriage and family-forma-
tion. Some important points in a person’s lifetime are tackled below, which accord-
ing to the fi ndings of previous studies impact the probability of church membership 
or the frequency of churchgoing. 

In the context of the family cycle, it can be regarded as secure knowledge that 
transition into marriage is linked to an increase in religious practice (Lois 2011; 
Thornton et al. 1992). Empirical research moreover indicates that a positive effect is 
exerted by having school-age children on church attendance and church member-
ship of the parents (e.g. Lois 2011; Stolzenberg et al. 1995; Schwadel et al. 2009). 
An event occurring late in the family cycle is widowhood, for which positive ef-
fects are also reported on various religiosity indicators (Lois 2011; Brown et al. 
2004). Additionally, biographical transitions are indicated which contribute towards 
a drop in religious practice and an increase in the probability of resigning church 
membership. These include the acquisition of advanced educational qualifi cations 
(Lois 2011; Mayrl/Ouer 2009), starting work (Birkelbach 1999) or divorce (Lois 2011; 
Stolzenberg et al. 1995; Argue et al. 1999). 



Church Membership and Church Attendance across Time     • 169

The frequency and the timing of the various biographical transitions should de-
termine whether a positive or negative overall trend can be observed in a life cycle, 
i.e. a correspondingly indicative age effect. A new perspective of the process of 
secularisation emerges at this point. The above studies indicate a positive or at least 
u-shaped age effect. Accordingly, those lifecycle processes which exert a stimulat-
ing effect on religiosity have so far prevailed. Here, however, one may certainly 
anticipate a shift in the weight since some very well proven demographic changes 
can be observed in recent decades. These for example include the delay in fi rst 
marriage, an increase in non-marital cohabitation, the rising divorce rates (in West-
ern Germany) and the increasing female labour force participation (in an overview: 
Peuckert 2008: 32-37, 169, 244-246). Transitions during a lifetime leading to a fall in 
religious activities are hence becoming more frequent, whereas positive infl uencing 
factors on religiosity are becoming less signifi cant. One may hence presume that 
the positive impact of age in the course of historical time weakens in comparison 
between various birth cohorts. In a study with panel data, Lois (2011) can confi rm 
that the age-specifi c increase in the frequency of churchgoing becomes weaker as 
calendar time advances. One goal of this study is to replicate this fi nding using trend 
data.

3 Data and method

3.1 Data basis and analysis procedure

As was already discussed in the introduction, processes of social change such as 
secularisation can only be satisfactorily analysed if one simultaneously takes three 
time effects into account (age, period, cohort). This study relies on pooled trend 
data of the cumulated ALLBUS for the years 1980-2008.4 The major advantage of 
this data basis is the fact that the period under observation covers almost 30 years in 
the ALLBUS, whereas in the Socio-Economic Panel for instance, church attendance 
has only been surveyed since 1990. The ALLBUS data are hence comparatively well 
suited to enable an analysis of the long-term secularisation process. 

To analyse the data, multi-level analysis is used which takes into account the 
nesting of individuals into different levels (introduction e.g. Hox 2002; Luke 2004). 
Generally, trend data have such a hierarchical structure since respondents (level 1) 
are embedded in the time context of the survey times (level 2) (cf. Klein 2005). This 
approach can be expanded for the special case of an APC analysis such that the time 
context (spanning different ages) is broken down into period and cohort infl uences. 
It should be taken into account here that members of a birth cohort, or respondents 

4 The target population up to 1990 consists of all eligible persons in the (old) Federal Republic 
and West Berlin who live in private households. Since 1991 the target population has consisted 
of the adult residential population (i.e. Germans and foreigners) in Western and Eastern Ger-
many.



•    Daniel Lois170

at a specifi c historical time, are probably more similar than could be expected by 
chance. Multi-level models with random coeffi cients cover both infl uences of the 
time context that were observed and those which were not observed, and lead to 
valid inference-statistical estimates (Yang 2008).

The attribution of persons to cohorts and periods is however not hierarchical, 
since the respondents at a survey time belong to several cohorts and the members 
of a cohort are surveyed at different survey times. In the context of an APC analysis, 
hence, it is not a 3-level model, but a so-called “cross-classifi ed random effects 
model” (CCREM, Yang/Land 2006; Yang/Land 2008) which is used. The cross classi-
fi cation used here is presented in Table 1, the columns correspond to all 16 ALLBUS 
survey years from 1980 and the lines to all 19 5-year cohorts from the birth year 
1895 on. This means in conceptual terms that persons of a specifi c cell in the table 
are embedded in two time contexts, period and cohort, at the same time. Thus, for 
instance, n = 277 persons born between 1960 and 1965 were surveyed in 2000.  

On the basis of this cohort × period matrix, regression models are estimated 
with the dependent variables of religious denomination and frequency of churchgo-
ing (for operationalisation see below). Multi-level models with random coeffi cients 
(Yang/Land 2006, 2008) are used here. In the case of church attendance, the corre-
sponding model has the following specifi cation: 

Level 1 (within cell) model: 

Level 2 (between-cell) model: 

For i = 1, 2,…, njk persons within cohort j and period k; 
 j = 1,…, 19 birth cohorts;
 k = 1,…, 16 time periods (survey years).

Within birth cohort j and survey year k, the frequency of churchgoing for each 
person i is modelled as a function of their logarithmised age, of the gender and of 
affi liation to a denomination. β0jk is the intercept or “cell mean” in Table 2, that is the 
mean  frequency of churchgoing of persons who belong to birth cohort j and were 
surveyed in year k. β1-β3 are the level-1 fi xed-effects. eijk is the random individual 
effect, i.e. the deviation of the frequency of the churchgoing of an individual i in co-
hort j and period k from the cell mean. γ0 constitutes the fi xed part of the intercept, 
or to be more precise the mean frequency of churchgoing over all persons (grand 
mean). This random-intercept model specifi cation allows the level-1 intercept to 
vary randomly from cohort-to-cohort (lines in Tab. 2) and period-to-period (columns 
in Tab. 2). u0j is the residual random effect of cohort j, i.e. the contribution of cohort 
j averaged over all periods. v0k is the residual random effect of period k – that is, 

0k0j00jk vuγβ ++=

ijkijk3ijk2ijk1ojkijk eONDENOMINATIβFEMALEβLNAGEββGCHURCHGOIN ++++=



Church Membership and Church Attendance across Time     • 171

the contribution of period k averaged over all cohorts.5 Additionally, analyses are 
carried out in which the slope for the logarithmised age (β

1
) can also randomly vary 

over cohorts or periods respectively (“random slope model”). 
In the case of the analysis of church membership (1 = yes, 0 = no), a logistic 

multi-level model (Guo/Zhao 2000) is used which is formally defi ned as follows (no-
tation see above):  

Level 1 (within cell) model: 

Level 2 (between-cell) model: 

The symbol π represents the probability of having a religious denomination. 
Hence, the dependent variable of the model shown is the logarithmised chance of 
membership of a religious organisation.

In addition to the multi-level models with random coeffi cients, OLS regressions 
(churchgoing) and logistical regressions (church membership) are estimated with 
conventional (fi xed) effects. Robust standard errors (Rogers 1993) are calculated 
in these models in order to also allow for the hierarchical data structure, i.e. the 
nesting of persons into cohorts and survey times. The clustering of the sample cor-
responds to the cohort × period cells presented in Table 2.

ijk3ijk2ijk1ojk
ijk

ijk FRAUβALTER²βALTERZββ
)π(1

π
ln +++=⎟

⎟
⎠

⎞
⎜
⎜
⎝

⎛

−

0k0j00jk vuγβ ++=

5 A normal distribution is presumed for eijk,, u0k, and v0k.

Tab. 1: Alternative cohort classifi cations for Western and Eastern Germany

Western Germany Eastern Germany 
Cohorts Designation Cohorts Designation 

1895-1921 Pre-War generation 1895-1930 National unity 
1922-1934 War/post-War 1931-1945 Establishment of the GDR 
1935-1945 Adenauer generation 1946-1960 Consolidation of the GDR 
1946-1953 APO generation 1961-1974 Dissolution of the GDR 
1954-1964 New social movements 1975-1990 Reunification 
1965-1975 Generation Golf   
1976-1990 Reunification   

Note: Inspired by Meulemann (2003: 274-275) and Klein/Pötschke (2004: 449).



•    Daniel Lois172

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Church Membership and Church Attendance across Time     • 173

A key problem in APC analysis is the model identifi cation problem – that is, the 
perfect linear relationship between age, survey time and birth year (survey time - 
age = birth year). Various measures are taken to resolve the confounding of age, pe-
riod and cohort effects in the regression model. In order to gain degrees of freedom, 
at least fi ve cohorts are summed up to form a birth cohort (Yang/Land 2006: 83-85). 
With this specifi cation, it is no longer possible, knowing the age and the survey year, 
to conclude the exact birth year. Moreover, non-linear age effects are estimated by 
including age in the shape of a linear and squared term (church membership) and 
alternatively in logarithmised form (church attendance) into the regression models. 
Finally, there is an advantage to be gained by the modelling of period and cohort 
infl uences via random effects which is the reduction of collinearity problems in the 
estimation (Yang/Land 2006).  

3.2 Operationalisation

The analysis encompass two dependent variables: Church membership is opera-
tionalised via a dichotomous variable which assumes a value of 1 if a person be-
longs to one of the following religious denominations: Protestant (including inde-
pendent churches), Roman Catholic, other Christian religious community and other 
non-Christian religious community. A 0 is coded if a person states that he or she 
does not belong to any religious community. 

The frequency of churchgoing is measured via a scale on 6 levels in the ALLBUS 
(6 = more than once per week, 5 = once per week, 4 = between once and three 
times per month, 3 = several times per year, 2 = less frequently, 1 = never). No 
transformation of these variables into the average annual attendance at religious 
services was carried out because of the different ranges of most categories.6 Nor is 
a categorisation benefi cial since this approach causes a loss of information.  

Continuous variables on the survey year and on the cohort are included in the 
regression models with fi xed effects in order to be able to identify linear and mono-
tone time trends. In the case of the survey year, the corresponding variable meas-
ures how many years have passed since the respective fi rst measurement period 
(1980 = 0 and 1991 = 0). The variable concerning birth cohorts can have values from 
1 = 1895-1900 to 19 = 1986-1990 (cf. also Tab. 2). Moreover, cohort classifi cations 
are used in the fi xed effects models (FE) which are orientated to content aspects 
that is to prominent historical periods (cf. Tab. 1).

Gender (1 = man, 0 = woman) is included as a further control variable. It should 
be stated at the outset that it is shown in all models that women are more religious 
than men (Collett/Lizardo 2009). Furthermore, an indicator measuring church mem-
bership (1 = yes, 0 = no) is considered in the regression models on churchgoing. 

6 For the purpose of comparison, in addition to linear regressions, “Ordered Logit Regressions” 
(with fi xed effects) were also calculated which are specifi cally suited to an ordinal scale level. 
The results of the estimate of the frequency of churchgoing remained largely stable here. 



•    Daniel Lois174

All analyses are carried out separately for Western and Eastern Germany, the East-
West classifi cation is based on the current place of residence.

4 Results of the APC analyses 

4.1 Age, period and cohort effects on church membership

The fi rst focus is the question which age, period and cohort effects can be identi-
fi ed with regard to the probability of church membership. Table 3 shows the results 
for Western Germany. The model with random coeffi cients (Model 1) confi rms that 
the probability of church membership changes depending on age, birth cohort and 
calendar time. The fi xed estimated age effect is u-shaped (cf. also Fig. 1) and highly 
signifi cant. As predicted in the traditional model of Bahr (1970), the probability of 
church membership declines initially on transition from youth to adult age to fi nally 
increase once again. Moreover, both random effects in Model 1 show that the prob-
ability of being a member of a religious association differs signifi cantly between the 
19 birth cohorts and – regardless of this – between the 16 survey times. The period 
effect is stronger than the cohort effect.7

The results in Model 1 do not reveal whether the period and cohort effects follow 
a monotone trend over time. In Model 2, the calendar time is hence operationalised 
as a metric covariate (years since 1980). In accordance with conventional secularisa-
tion theories, it shows a negative period effect on the probability of church mem-
bership (b = -.03). Figure 2 illustrates the period effect. It becomes clear, that reli-
gious nonaffi liation in Western Germany increases successively during the period 
from 1980 to 2008. However, the proportions of church members predicted by the 
random effects model are slightly lower as the observed values.8

On the basis of Model 2, moreover, there are no indications of a monotone time 
trend across the 19 birth cohorts. The corresponding coeffi cient (b = -.05) is not 
signifi cant. The cohort sub-division, which is orientated on content-related aspects, 
and on which Model 3 is based, however leads to substantial results. As one might 
anticipate, the lowest probability of being tied to a denomination is shown by the 
1946-1953 cohort (reference), which was particularly infl uenced by the events in 
and around 1968. A signifi cantly higher level of church membership is however de-
monstrable in the Adenauer generation (1935-1945), and in particular in the War and 
post-War generations (1922-1934). These results correspond with the presumption 
that the material need in the post-War period exerted a positive infl uence on adher-
ence to the church. The share of church members in the younger cohorts from the 
birth year 1954 onwards is slightly higher than in the reference cohort, but the cor-

7 According to the intraclass correlation, the share of the period variance among the overall vari-
ance is 2.8 % and the share of cohort variance is only 0.7 %. 

8 The positive outlier in the East German survey of the year 2002 is possibly caused by a themati-
cal focus on religion.



Church Membership and Church Attendance across Time     • 175

Tab. 3: Age, period and cohort effects on the probability of church 
membership in Western Germany (logistic cross classifi ed models with 
random and fi xed effects) 

 Model 
 1 2 3 

Fixed effects Logit coefficients (z-values) 
Intercept .70*** 2.97*** 2.39*** 
 (3.5) (7.3) (20.9) 
Man -.47*** -.47*** -.47*** 
 (-14.7) (-13.1) (-13.2) 
Age (centred) -.05*** .004 .01 
 (-6.9) (0.4) (1.5) 
Age² .001*** .001*** .001*** 
 (8.7) (9.4) (6.0) 
Period (years since 1980) - -.03** -.03*** 
  (-2.5) (-5.6) 
5-year birth cohorts (ordinal) - -.05 - 
  (-0.9)  
Cohort classification (ref.: 1946-1953)    

pre-War generation (1895-1921) - - .33 
   (1.5) 
War/post-War (1922-1934) - - .49*** 
   (3.6) 
Adenauer generation (1935-1945) - - .25** 
   (3.0) 
Social movements (1954-1964) - - .10 
   (1.4) 
Generation Golf (1965-1975) - - .18 
   (1.4) 
Reunification (1976-1990) - - .24 

   (1.2) 

Random effects Variance components ( ²-values) 
Intercept period .096*** - - 
 (319.4)   
Intercept cohort .023*** - - 

 (112.0)   

Note: n = 39861; * p ≤ .05; ** p ≤ .01; *** p  ≤ .001. 

Source: Cumulated ALLBUS (1980-2008); own calculations



•    Daniel Lois176

responding differences are not signifi cant. An illustration of the cohort effects for 
Western Germany – on the basis of Model 3 – can be found in Figure 3.9

The observed values in Figure 1 also indicate the presence of a positive age ef-
fect for Eastern Germany. Religious nonaffi liation decreases from roughly 20 % at 
the age of 18 to about 50 % at the age of 75. As is made clear by Model 1 in Table 4 
and in the graphic presentation in Figure 1, this gross effect also remains largely 
stable in multivariate terms.10 Both the linear (b = .03) and the squared age term (b 
= .001) are highly signifi cant. 

Moreover, cohort and period effects on the probability of church membership 
can also be discovered for Eastern Germany on the basis of Model 1 in Table 4. The 
variance of the corresponding regression constants over the survey years (0.047), 
and cohorts (0.009), is signifi cant. The results of Model 2 in Table 4 confi rm that the 

Fig. 1: Age-related changes of the share of church members

* CCREM = Cross classifi ed random effects model

Source: Cumulated ALLBUS (1980-2008); own calculations

9 The cohort effects shown here are centred on a mean age and on the year 1994. 
10 The predicted values for the age range above 75 years are not shown because of relatively small 

case numbers (n < 100) in Figure 1.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

18 23 28 33 38 43 48 53 58 63 68 73 78 83

West (CCREM)*

West (gross) East (gross)

East (CCREM)

Share of individuals belonging to a denomination

Age



Church Membership and Church Attendance across Time     • 177

probability of a denominational tie in Eastern Germany has fallen since 1991. The 
corresponding period effect (b = -.05) is signifi cant. Figure 2 accordingly shows that 
church membership decreases successively between 1991 and 2008, from 30 % 
to roughly 20 %. This corresponds to the results that have been quoted, according 
to which the churches in Eastern Germany have also lost further members after 
reunifi cation. 

Regarding cohort effects in Eastern Germany, it is not possible to identify any 
monotone time trend in Model 2 (Tab. 4). The corresponding coeffi cient (b = .09) 
is not signifi cant. Also the cohort effects which are predicted by the multi-level 
model with random coeffi cients for Eastern Germany (not shown), are rather mar-
ginal and do not follow a recognisable pattern. One argument against the random 
effects model is however that the underlying 5-year cohorts are artifi cial since the 
corresponding groups of individuals do not typify themselves in each case by hav-
ing collectively experienced prominent historical phases. Particularly in view of the 
drastic political transformation process in the former GDR, the sub-division in GDR 

Fig. 2: Proportion of church members across birth cohorts  

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1
9
8

0

1
9
8

2

1
9
8

4

1
9
8

6

1
9
8

8

1
9
9

0

1
9
9

1

1
9
9

2

1
9
9

4

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9
9

6

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9

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0
0

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2
0
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0
0

4

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0
0

6

2
0
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8

West (gross)

West (CCREM)*

East (gross)

East (CCREM)

Survey year

Share of individuals belonging to a denomination

* CCREM = Cross classifi ed random effects model

Source: Cumulated ALLBUS (1980-2008); own calculations



•    Daniel Lois178

and post-GDR cohorts that has been discussed appears to be more applicable. For 
this reason, a fi xed effects model is calculated in Model 3 (Tab. 4) in which a to-
tal of fi ve birth cohorts are compared with one another. The results indicate that 
the probability of church membership in the two youngest cohorts (1961-1975 and 
1976-1990), which were socialised during the dissolution years of the GDR and after 
reunifi cation, has signifi cantly increased in comparison to the 1946-1960 “GDR co-
hort”. These fi ndings correspond with the results reported by Meulemann (2003). 
However, the result that no signifi cant difference between the pre-GDR and the GDR 
cohorts (1946-1960) can be shown speaks against any decisive infl uence having 
been exerted by State Socialism. 

It appears to be worth discussing whether these results can be interpreted as a 
revitalisation of adherence to the church. It should be borne in mind that the cohorts 
from 1961 onwards are also affected by the general fall in church membership num-

Fig. 3: Proportion of church members across survey years

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1
8
9

5
-1

9
0
0

1
9
0

1
-1

9
0
5

1
9
0

6
-1

9
1
0

1
9
1

1
-1

9
1
5

1
9
1

6
-1

9
2
0

1
9
2

1
-1

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2
5

1
9
2

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-1

9
3
0

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9
3

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-1

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3
5

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9
3

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4
0

1
9
4

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9
4
5

1
9
4

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-1

9
5
0

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9
5

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-1

9
5
5

1
9
5

6
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9
6
0

1
9
6

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6
5

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7
0

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5

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0

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5

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9
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West (gross)

West (FE)*

East (gross)

East (FE)

Birth cohort

Share of individuals belonging to a denomination

* FE = Fixed-Effects

Source: Cumulated ALLBUS (1980-2008); own calculations



Church Membership and Church Attendance across Time     • 179

bers with advancing calendar time – and by age effects. One example may serve to 
clarify this: In 1991, the predicted probability of church membership of an Eastern 
German female person aged 31 (birth year 1960) is 25 %. This value falls to 22.6 % in 
2008, once age and period effects have been offset. For a comparable person who 

Tab. 4: Age, period and cohort effects on the probability of church 
membership in Eastern Germany (logistic cross-classifi ed models with 
random and fi xed effects) 

 Model 
 1 2 3 

Fixed effects Logit coefficients (z-values) 
Intercept -.82*** -1.51* -.61*** 
 (-9.8) (-2.2) (-7.1) 
Man -.33*** -.32*** -.33*** 
 (-7.8) (-7.1) (-7.2) 
Age (centred)  .03*** .04*** .04*** 
 (14.8) (3.2) (5.7) 
Age² .001*** .001*** .0004** 
 (6.0) (6.4) (3.2) 
Period (years since 1991) - -.05*** -.04*** 
  (-3.4) (-5.1) 
5-year birth cohorts (ordinal) - .09 - 
  (1.3)  
Cohort classification (ref.: 1946-1960)    

National unity (1895-1930) - - -.13 
   (0.7) 
Establishment of the GDR (1931-1945)  - - .02 
   (0.2) 
Dissolution of the GDR (1961-1975) - - .30* 
   (2.3) 
Reunification (1976-1990) - - .60* 

   (2.5) 

Random effects Variance components ( ²-values) 
Intercept period .047*** - - 
 (117.4)   
Intercept cohort .009** - - 
 (41.0)   

Note:  n = 11270; * p ≤ .05; ** p ≤ .01; *** p  ≤ .001. 
Source: Cumulated ALLBUS (1980-2008); own calculations 



•    Daniel Lois180

was however born in 1961 and is hence aged 30 in 1991, the probability of Church 
membership is 30.6 % and falls to 27.5 % by 2008. Since the 1961-1975 birth cohort, 
which was socialised during the dissolution of the GDR, shows a higher starting 
level in the fi rst survey in 1991, the term “revitalisation” appears to be appropriate.

Figure 3 shows the corresponding cohort-specifi c pattern.11 A comparison of 
gross and net cohort effects reveals major differences, especially among Eastern 
German respondents. The actual infl uences of the birth cohort cannot be clearly 
identifi ed until age and period effects are controlled for. The gross cohort effects 
are, by contrast, highly biased as a result of the already documented age-specifi c 
changes in ties to the churches.

4.2 Age, period and cohort effects on church attendance  

The analysis of the development of church membership does not yet permit any 
statement regarding the degree to which the members of a religious organisation 
are actively involved in church life (religious vitality). Therefore, a further APC analy-
sis is carried out examining the frequency of churchgoing. Church membership is 
controlled for in all the regression analyses below. The diagrams also refer exclu-
sively to persons with a denomination. It is hence possible to determine the net ef-
fects on religious practice, i.e. when controlling for membership. 

The results for Western Germany are shown in Table 5. According to the re-
sults of the multi-level model with random coeffi cients (Model 1), the frequency of 
churchgoing increases in a monotone fashion with increasing age (b = .63). This age 
effect is statistically independent of cohort and period effects which are controlled 
for. In technical terms, the frequency of churchgoing differs not only between the 
cells in Table 2, but also within a cell, i.e. when keeping a specifi c calendar year 
and a birth cohort constant. The best model adjustment can be achieved by the 
logarithmic conversion of age. The resulting shape of the age effect is visible in Fig-
ure 4, which relates to Western German women. According to the predicted values, 
the frequency of attendance at religious services, increases successively with age. 
As a result of the logarithmic conversion, the increase is however not linear, but 
becomes increasingly fl at. The observed values also show that church attendance 
only increases until the age of 75, and subsequently falls once more. It is however 
not necessarily a “disengagement” in the sense of a deliberate withdrawal of old 
people from social roles which is responsible for this. A more plausible explanation 
lies in increasing physical impairments of older people which particularly pose ob-
stacles to their churchgoing. 

Has the strength of the age effect changed within the period under observation? 
In order to answer this question, the slope for the age effect is allowed to vary ran-

11 The cohort effects are centred here on a mean age and the middle of the respective observation 
periods. Cohort effects for the cohorts in Eastern Germany prior to 1916 are not shown because 
of small numbers of cases. The x-axis in Figure 3 corresponds to the 5-year cohort classifi ca-
tion. Hence, smaller deviations from the alternative cohort sub-division in Table 1 emerge. 



Church Membership and Church Attendance across Time     • 181

domly across cohorts or periods, respectively, in Models 2 and 3 (“random slope” 
model). The cohort-specifi c variation of the age effect is not signifi cant according to 
Model 2 in Table 5 (z = 1.6). It can however be shown in Model 3 that the strength 
of the age effect differs signifi cantly between the various survey years (z = 2.7). 
But the random effects model does not reveal whether these period-specifi c differ-
ences follow a monotone time trend. Hence, in Table 6 (Model 2) interaction effects 
between the age and two continuous indicators for the ongoing number of the co-
hort, and the time in years since 1980 (period), are calculated. The conditional main 
effect of age in Model 2 (b = 0.87) refers to the year 1994 and the cohort 1941-1945, 
since a centring was carried out. The interaction effect age × period makes it clear 
that the age effect falls by a factor of 0.01 with each calendar year since 1980. The 
corresponding interaction with the cohort has the same algebraic sign, but falls just 
short of the 5 % signifi cance level. 

Tab. 5: Age, period and cohort effects on the frequency of churchgoing in 
Western Germany (linear cross-classifi ed models with random effects)

 Model 
 1 2 3 

Fixed effects b-coefficient (t-value) 
Intercept .35* 1.48*** .38** 
 (2.6) (8.5) (3.0) 
Man -.25*** -.25*** -.25*** 
 (-19.6) (-19.6) (-19.7) 
Age (logarithmised) .63*** - - 
 (18.3)   
Any religious denomination 1.31*** 1.31*** 1.31*** 

 (56.7) (56.2) (56.5) 

Random effects Variance components (Wald z-value) 
Intercept period .010** .004* - 
 (2.6) (2.3)  
Intercept cohort .007* - .006* 
 (2.3)  (2.1) 
Period-age slope - - .381** 
   (2.7) 
Cohort-age slope - .108 - 
  (1.6)  
Level 1 residual variance 1.545*** 1.546*** 1.545*** 

 (138.4) (138.3) (138.4) 

Notes: n = 38367; * p ≤ .05; ** p ≤ .01; *** p  ≤ .001. 

Source: Cumulated ALLBUS (1980-2008); own calculations



•    Daniel Lois182

Figure 4 graphically illustrates the weakening of the age effect on the basis of the 
predicted values of Model 2 in Table 6. The far ends of the period under observa-
tion are compared, namely, the year 1980 is compared to the year 2008. The level 
of attendance at religious services is fi xed on the middle cohort (1941-1945). When 
comparing both regression curves, especially one difference becomes clear: The 
regression curve for the year 2008 has a weaker increase than the same curve for 
the year 1980. The increase in the frequency of churchgoing between the ages of 18 
and 85 is roughly 1.5 units on the scale in 1980, whereas in 2008 it is only roughly 
one unit. 

Comparable analyses for Eastern Germany (not shown) lead to the result that no 
signifi cant age effect on the frequency of churchgoing can be found when control-
ling for cohort and period effects.

The fi ndings on the religious practice in Western Germany also lead to the result 
that the frequency of attending religious services falls in the course of the calendar 
time. This fi nding, which corresponds to conventional secularisation theories, ex-

Fig. 4: Age-related changes of the frequency of churchgoing (women with a 
denomination in Western Germany)

1,50

1,75

2,00

2,25

2,50

2,75

3,00

3,25

3,50

3,75

4,00

18 23 28 33 38 43 48 53 58 63 68 73 78 83

1980-2008 (gross)

FE estimation (1980, cohort 1941-1945)

FE estimation (2008, cohort 1941-1945)

Age

Frequency of church-going (scale 1-6)

* FE = Fixed-Effects

Source: Cumulated ALLBUS (1980-2008); own calculations



Church Membership and Church Attendance across Time     • 183

presses itself in the fact that a signifi cant variation of the regression constant over 
the 16 survey times of the ALLBUS can be found in the random effects model. As 
is confi rmed by Model 1 in Table 6, this variation is furthermore based on a highly 
signifi cant, linear-negative trend (cf. also Fig. 5). By contrast, no signifi cant period 

Tab. 6: Age, period and cohort effects on the frequency of churchgoing in 
Western Germany (linear cross-classifi ed models with fi xed effects) 

 Model 
 1 2 3 
 b-coefficients (t-values) 

Intercept .14 1.62*** -.71* 
 (0.4) (8.7) (-2.0) 
Man -.25*** -.25*** -.25*** 
 (-17.7) (-17.8) (-17.9) 
Age (logarithmised) .52*** .87** .63*** 
 (8.5) (3.0) (6.3) 
Any religious denomination 1.33*** 1.33*** 1.32*** 
 (60.4) (60.4) (59.6) 
Period (years since 1980) -.01** -.01* -.01*** 
 (-3.4) (2.2) (-4.2) 
5-year cohorts (logarithmised) -.19** -.004 - 
 (-3.4) (-0.2)  
Period × age (logarithmised) - -.01* - 
  (-2.2)  
(ln)cohort × (ln)age - -.02 - 
  (-1.8)  
Cohort classification (ref.: 1946-1953)    

Pre-War generation (1895-1921) - - .18* 
   (2.2) 
War/post-War (1922-1934) - - .11* 
   (2.1) 
Adenauer-generation (1935-1945) - - .04 
   (1.1) 
Social movements (1954-1964) - - -.02 
   (-0.5) 
Generation Golf (1965-1975) - - .06 
   (1.1) 
Reunification (1976-1990) - - .18* 
   (2.0) 

Notes: n = 38367; * p ≤ .05; ** p ≤ .01; *** p  ≤ .001; the logarithmised age and the 
period and cohort variables are centred in model 2. 

Source: Cumulated ALLBUS (1980-2008); own calculations 



•    Daniel Lois184

effect can be identifi ed in Eastern Germany. The frequency of attendance at reli-
gious services is slightly below the Western level, but has been largely at a constant 
level since 1991 (cf. Fig. 5).

Finally, the question arises to which degree the religious practice in Western and 
Eastern Germany changes as a result of infl uences of the birth cohort. The random 
effects model (Tab. 5, Model 1) initially confi rms that the variance of the regres-
sion constant is signifi cant over the 19 cohorts, even if only a very small share of 
the overall variance (< 1 %) is accounted for by cohort effects. It can also be found 
on the basis of Model 1 in Table 6 that church attendance rates fall with the ongo-
ing number of the cohort (b = -.19).12 The alternative cohort sub-division, which is 

Fig. 5: Frequency of churchgoing across survey years (persons with a 
denomination)

1,50

1,75

2,00

2,25

2,50

2,75

3,00

3,25

3,50

3,75

4,00

1
9

8
0

1
9

8
2

1
9

8
4

1
9

8
6

1
9

8
8

1
9

9
0

1
9

9
1

1
9

9
2

1
9

9
4

1
9

9
6

1
9

9
8

2
0

0
0

2
0

0
2

2
0

0
4

2
0

0
6

2
0

0
8

West (CCREM)*

West (gross)

East (CCREM)

East (gross)

Survey year

Frequency of church-going (scale 1-6)

* CCREM = Cross classifi ed random effects model

Source: Cumulated ALLBUS (1980-2008); own calculations

12 Developments in the number of the cohort are logarithmised in Model 2 (Tab. 6) since this can 
improve the model adjustment, and the extent of the collinearity between age, period and co-
hort effects can be reduced to a level within the tolerance limit.



Church Membership and Church Attendance across Time     • 185

orientated towards characteristic historic periods, however provides further infor-
mation. Accordingly, the 1946-1953 cohorts (“APO generation”) and the 1954-1964 
cohort (new social movements) once more show the greatest distance to religion 
and the church. The frequency of attendance at religious services, by contrast, is 
signifi cantly higher in the cohorts prior to 1935, and also in the youngest cohort 
(1976-1990). The cohort classifi cation in Model 3 consequently indicates a u-shaped 
connection between the cohorts and church attendance. A graphical illustration of 
the corresponding cohort patterns in Eastern and Western Germany can be found 
in Figure 6.13 An upwards movement is suggested for Eastern Germany without 

Fig. 6: Frequency of churchgoing across birth cohorts (persons with 
denomination)

1,50

1,75

2,00

2,25

2,50

2,75

3,00

3,25

3,50

3,75

4,00

1
8

9
5

-1
9
0

0

1
9

0
1

-1
9
0

5

1
9

0
6

-1
9
1

0

1
9

1
1

-1
9
1

5

1
9

1
6

-1
9
2

0

1
9

2
1

-1
9
2

5

1
9

2
6

-1
9
3

0

1
9

3
1

-1
9
3

5

1
9

3
6

-1
9
4

0

1
9

4
1

-1
9
4

5

1
9

4
6

-1
9
5

0

1
9

5
1

-1
9
5

5

1
9

5
6

-1
9
6

0

1
9

6
1

-1
9
6

5

1
9

6
6

-1
9
7

0

1
9

7
1

-1
9
7

5

1
9

7
6

-1
9
8

0

1
9

8
1

-1
9
8

5

1
9

8
6

-1
9
9

0

West (gross)

West (FE)*

East (gross)

East (FE)

Birth cohort

Frequency of church-going (scale 1-6)

* FE = Fixed-Effects

Source: Cumulated ALLBUS (1980-2008); own calculations

13 The cohort effects shown here are in turn centred on a median age and the middle of the re-
spective periods under observation. 



•    Daniel Lois186

controlling for age and period effects, which however proves not to be signifi cant 
in multivariate analyses (not shown in a table). This is also made clear by the hori-
zontal predicted values in Figure 6, which are based on a sub-division into pre- and 
post-GDR cohorts.    

5 Summary and discussion

The starting point of this article was the conclusion that no APC analyses are avail-
able so far on the development of church membership and church attendance in 
the Federal Republic. Accordingly, data from the cumulated ALLBUS in the period 
under observation 1980-2008 were analysed. The least surprising result of the anal-
yses consists of the infl uences of the calendar time: The share of church members 
in Western Germany in the period 1980-2008, and in Eastern Germany in the years 
1991-2008, fell continuously. A weakening of religious participation can additionally 
be observed among Western German respondents since here the frequency of at-
tendance at religious services also reduces with advancing calendar time. Hence, 
regardless of age and independently of individual cohorts, a secularisation trend 
continues which started in the 1950s in Eastern Germany, and in the 1960s in West-
ern Germany. 

The analyses presented however additionally provide new information on the 
relative signifi cance of age and cohort infl uences. Age-specifi c changes in church 
membership and in church attendance are ignored either implicitly or explicitly in 
many previous studies (Chaves 1989; Jagodzinski/Dobbelaere 1993; Wolf 2007; 
Voas 2008). The results of this study indicate that this approach is inappropriate. 
The probability of church membership increases in Eastern and Western Germany 
with advancing age, after a temporary drop on the transition from youth to adult-
hood. Moreover, a monotone-positive age effect on the frequency of churchgoing 
can be found to exist for Western Germany. The fi ndings hence show on the one 
hand that the inter-age secularisation trend is counteracted by lifecycle effects. But 
on the other hand at least for church attendance in Western Germany, it can be 
shown that the positive infl uence of age decreases with advancing calendar time. 
A possible explanation of this result lies in the fact that the relative signifi cance of 
biographical transitions which have a positive or a negative impact on religiosity has 
shifted in past decades. One should refer here for instance to the delaying of mar-
riage or the increase of the incidence of non-marital cohabitation. The weakening of 
the age effect is also to be interpreted as a form of secularisation which has largely 
remained unobserved so far – even in international research. 

As a matter of principle, one may criticise the above analyses of age effects in 
that they are solely based on trend data. Especially with regard to infl uences of age, 
there is hence no possibility to observe the same individual in the course of their 
ageing process. A comparison between various persons however implies that these 
individuals differ only by their age, and not with regard to further characteristics 
which are not observed. The nature of the data inevitably leads to a causal inter-
pretation of the results that remains uncertain. To support the authoritativeness of 



Church Membership and Church Attendance across Time     • 187

the fi ndings, one may refer to the fact that it can also be proven in panel studies 
(Lois 2011; Argue et al. 1999) that religiosity increases with rising age and that fur-
thermore the positive age effect becomes weaker as calendar time advances. The 
results on the age effects hence prove to be robust as against different data sources 
(SOEP and ALLBUS) and evaluation methods (panel and trend analysis).

With regard to cohort effects, the present studies (e.g. Jagodzinski/Dobbelaere 
1993; Wolf 2007; Voas 2008) usually leave the impression that the level of ties to the 
church and of religious vitality continues to weaken with each passing generation. 
The analyses presented indicate that these are probably mistaken interpretations 
caused by the failure to take account of age effects. The infl uences of the birth co-
hort, shown when age and period effects are statistically controlled for, tend to be 
relatively weak. A u-shaped course is shown in Western Germany, in particular with 
regard to the frequency of churchgoing. The lowest frequency of attending religious 
services can be observed in the 1946-1953 and 1954-1964 cohorts, who were infl u-
enced by the 68 movement and the emergence of the new social movements. The 
level of religious participation, by contrast, is higher in the older birth cohorts prior 
to 1934, as well as in the youngest cohort observed (1976-1990). 

For the East German birth cohorts 1961-1974 and 1975-1990, who were social-
ised during the dissolution phase of the GDR and in the period following the political 
changes, increases in the starting level of church membership are shown. These 
fi ndings, which indicate a revitalisation of adherence to the church, speak against 
the irrevocability of forced secularisation and tend to confi rm the presumption that 
the restoration of the religious market after reunifi cation had a positive impact on 
religious participation. The results are however not suited to confi rm the validity 
of the religious market model since they do not reveal any indications of market 
mechanisms – such as a wider spread of memberships among various religious 
communities. For this reason, alternative explanations of the cohort effects men-
tioned cannot be ruled out. One presumption could be, for instance, that church 
membership belongs to a greater degree to the normative expectations in unifi ed 
Germany than it has been the case in the former GDR. 

Finally, some restrictions of the presented study should be indicated. With re-
gard to the operationalisation of church membership those persons who in addition 
to the popular Christian Churches belong to other Christian or other non-Christian 
religious communities were also counted as church members. This approach may 
overlook a pluralisation of the religious market. Relevant results on this topic can be 
found in Wolf (1999) and also in many works on the individualisation of religion (cf. 
Pickel 2011: 178-197 for an overview). Moreover, the present study aims to provide 
basic research, but does not claim to provide explanations beyond this. The goal of 
the survey was primarily to present a statistically reliable estimate of age, period and 
cohort effects. The next step consists of a detailed explanation of the effects that 
have been observed. What is the reason for the increased religiosity across the life-
cycle, and why has this age effect weakened in recent decades? Which approaches 
from the area of the conventional secularisation theories prove to be particularly 
helpful to explain the negative period effect on church membership and church 
attendance (cf. on this Pollack 2009: 60-104)? Is the low spread of religiosity in the 



•    Daniel Lois188

Western German birth cohort 1946-1953 actually caused by a change in values that 
is a distancing from values related to obligations and to conformity? Can a restora-
tion of the religious market be made responsible for the religious revitalisation in 
Eastern Germany which can be observed for the cohorts from 1961 onwards? It was 
not possible to answer these questions and other “why questions” in the course of 
this study, and they pose further challenges for future research. 

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Translated from the original text by the Federal Institute for Population Research, for information 
only. The reviewed and author’s authorised original article in German is available under the title 
“Kirchenmitgliedschaft und Kirchgangshäufi gkeit im Zeitverlauf – Eine Trendanalyse unter Berück-
sichtigung von Ost-West-Unterschieden”, DOI 10.4232/10.CPoS-2011-04de or URN urn:nbn:de:bib-
cpos-2011-04de3, at http://www.comparativepopulationstudies.de.

Date of submission: 14.09.2010  Date of Acceptance: 28.05.2011

Dr. Daniel Lois ( ). TU Chemnitz. Institut für Soziologie. Empirische Sozialforschung. 
D-09107 Chemnitz, Germany. 
E-Mail: daniel.lois@soziologie.tu-chemnitz.de
URL: http://www.tu-chemnitz.de



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