Arranz-Becker et al_Engl.indd Differences in Fertility Patterns between East and West German Women Disentangling the roles of cultural background and of the transformation process Oliver Arránz Becker, Daniel Lois, Bernhard Nauck Abstract: The present study compares parity-specifi c fertility patterns of West and East German women (from birth cohorts 1970 and younger) after German re-unifi - cation using panel data from the GSOEP (waves 1990 through 2006). Whereas the transition rate for the birth of the fi rst child tends to be higher in the East German than in the West German sub-sample, the likelihood of second births remains con- siderably higher among West German women across time. The analyses presented comprise a detailed comparative test of different intervening mechanisms, repre- sented by sociocultural orientations and social inequalities resulting from the soci- etal transformation process. Although the transition rate to fi rst births among East German women is lowered by their higher education and work aspirations, their higher degree of family orientation promotes their propensity to start a family. Sur- prisingly, the higher proportion of persons without a denomination in East Germany promotes the transition to parenthood because it accelerates both the engagement in and the consolidation of intimate relationships. The lower transition rate to sec- ond births among East German women is partly accounted for by the higher work aspirations, by the lower religiosity and by the lower general life satisfaction in this subgroup. Keywords: fertility · Eastern Germany · family formation · second birth 1 Introduction Birth and fertility rates are quite vivid indicators of a society’s capacity to regenerate and maintain itself. This may be why mass media and authors of popular scientifc literature sporadically turn their attention to the stagnating birth rates in Germany. On the basis of aggregate statistics, such as the total fertility rate, Germany has one of the lowest birth rates among European countries (Dorbritz 2000). This view, Comparative Population Studies – Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft Vol. 35, 1 (2010): 7-34 © Federal Institute for Population Research 2010 URL: www.comparativepopulationstudies.de DOI: 10.4232/10.CPoS-2010-02en URN: urn:nbn:de:bib-cpos-2010-02en4 • Oliver Arránz Becker, Daniel Lois, Bernhard Nauck8 however, neglects the complexity and dynamics of fertility patterns, particularly in East Germany after unifi cation. At a fi rst glance, the East German “birth slump” and the slow increase in birth rates later on, as shown by a comparison of descriptive fertility rates in East and West Germany, might be interpreted as a “birth shock” followed by convergence. However, this interpretation does not take into account the fact that women who were raised in East and West Germany, respectively, are likely to represent differ- ent subpopulations. The two groups can be expected to diverge from each other considerably with regard to cultural traditions, as well as in the way in which they experienced the situation after reunifi cation. Due to the radical transformation of the political system in East Germany and largely unchanged living conditions in West Germany, German unifi cation represents a historically rare setting. Within this framework, the fertility patterns of women who were socialized in East Germany being in their fertile phase after the system change, may refl ect habits that are typi- cal of the pre-unifi cation period, combined with the economic and biographical un- certainties caused by the transformation process. Up to now, factors underlying the different fertility patterns in East and West Germany have not been studied systematically. Hence, the present study aims at empirically investigating the ways in which the fertility patterns of East and West German women (analysed separately for fi rst and second parity) differ in post-re- unifi cation times. In a fi rst step, and based on recent longitudinal data from the Ger- man Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), we analyse the trajectories of fertility patterns in the East and West German sub-samples between 1990 and 2006. Secondly, by using path models we examine in greater detail the roles played by various factors underlying this fertility differential. Specifi cally, we analyse the infl uence exerted by divergent value orientations acquired during socialization (e.g. the higher occupa- tional orientation of East German women). Additionally, we test the degree to which the differing family patterns refl ect the consequences of the transformation process in the shape of biographical and economic uncertainties in East Germany. The present article is structured as follows: Firstly, existing research with re- gard to parity-specifi c differences in fertility patterns between women from East and West Germany, respectively, will be discussed (section 1.1). The next step is to extract the vital differences between East and West German women concerning characteristics infl uencing fertility following a historical perspective (section 1.2). On the basis of the considerations outlined, hypotheses to explain the differences in fertility patterns between East and West German women will be generated, explic- itly taking into account the intervening variables which were previously identifi ed (section 1.3). The methodological approach (section 2), the results of the analyses (section 3), as well as a theoretical discussion of the results (section 4), will be pre- sented in the following part. Differences in Fertility Patterns between East and West German Women • 9 1.1 Current State of Research on East and West German Fertility Patterns When studying the comparison of East and West German fertility patterns, the par- ity specifi city reported in the literature has to be taken into account (Kreyenfeld 2003). Previous life course studies dealing with the transition to parenthood have reached the conclusion that East German women born after 1971 (whose fertile period mainly spans post-reunifi cation years) postpone family formation to a higher age, whereas the cohorts of West German women do not exhibit a signifi cant shift in fertility behaviour (Kreyenfeld 2006; Kreyenfeld/Huinink 2003). Even though they have delayed their fi rst births, younger East German women still opt for parenthood somewhat earlier than West German women (Kreyenfeld 2003); who continue to ex- hibit a relatively high average age at fi rst birth (Kreyenfeld 2006). Kreyenfeld (2000) states that these differences for the cohorts 1961-70 and 1971-80 are statistically signifi cant. Altogether, the available evidence suggests that the likelihood of family formation has been higher among East German than among West German women since unifi cation. As for the transition to second birth, in the pre-unifi cation decade, East German women were characterized by a slightly lower transition rate compared to West German women; this gap has considerably widened after reunifi cation (Kreyenfeld/ Huinink 2003; Kreyenfeld/Mika 2006). Dornseiff and Sackmann (2003) have shown that this difference in the likelihood of second births is statistically signifi cant for all the age cohorts studied (1952-1980). As regards the central differences between East and West Germans with respect to fertility patterns (namely, transition to fi rst and second births) after unifi cation, we can conclude that East German women, at least those from younger cohorts, have shown (at least) a postponement of fertility decisions in the post-unifi cation dec- ade. As to the resulting differences in fertility levels, the fi ndings remain somewhat inconclusive due to the right-censoring of the data analysed in previous studies.1 The reported results for West German women can be subsumed in a “polarization thesis” (Huinink 1995b: 199), according to which family formation processes are increasingly narrowed down to two alternatives: childlessness or two children. In East Germany, however, the one-child family seems to enjoy comparatively greater popularity. So far, only a limited number of studies have been carried out in order to ac- tually explain the differences between East and West German fertility behaviour described above. Hank et al. (2004) reports that the availability of childcare facili- ties has a positive effect on the transition to fi rst birth in East Germany. As to the transition to second births, Dornseiff and Sackmann (2003) state that the positive coeffi cient for West Germany is insignifi cant in multivariate terms once a number of 1 In view of the limited time frame of the fertile period, it may be assumed that not all postponed births will actually be caught up later. • Oliver Arránz Becker, Daniel Lois, Bernhard Nauck10 covariates (e.g., type of partnership and religiousness) are controlled for. However, since all variables are entered into the model in one step, it remains unclear which predictors primarily account for the different transition rates to the second child in East vs. West Germany. Almost all previous studies analyzing fertility determinants across East and West German subpopulations compute two separate event history models (East vs. West Germans) (one important exception being the study by Dornseiff/Sackmann 2003 already cited). It remains unclear within this analytical framework whether the dif- ferences that have been observed can be traced back to systematic differences in the composition of the two subpopulations (e.g. differing distributions of relation- ship types or religious denominations). This is why we have chosen a slightly differ- ent model specifi cation for our analyses. In order to examine differences in fertility behaviour between our East and West German subsamples, the hypotheses are tested by computing combined models for the whole sample (including both East and West German women) with a dummy indicator for “East vs. West German”. The procedure proposed here, i.e. modeling socio-structural indicators and attitudes relevant to fertility as endogenous variables, is indispensable for testing whether already known differences in social characteristics of East and West Germans are actually responsible for the diverging fertility patterns. 1.2 Historical Roots of Differences in the Structure of the Population Below, we use a socio-historic approach to identify origins and chronological trends in fertility determinants, comparing the East and West German subpopulations. Three different layers of differences between East and West Germany may be dis- tinguished: 1. Long-lasting cultural differences: East Germany comprises the Protestant, more secular North-East of Germany, where the institutionalization of fami- lies shows many similarities to Scandinavian societies, as does the accept- ance of “social democratic” family policy. West Germany, by contrast, was very much infl uenced by the Catholic South, placing a strong emphasis on the principle of “subsidiarity”, reliance on the self-help patterns of kinship networks, and preference for non-interference by the State in family mat- ters (cf. Bertram 1996). 2. Intermediate infl uences of belonging to two different political systems for decades: The differences between the two cultures may have been further enhanced by the contrasting political systems of the GDR and the FRG, with a strong system of incentives towards fertility, on the one hand, and an array of rather indirect, sometimes even self-contradictory family-related policies on the other. 3. Short-term effects of East Germany’s political transformation, refl ected by the far-reaching substitution of social institutions. These transformations resulted in shock-like perceptions of economic and social instability imme- diately after political unifi cation. Differences in Fertility Patterns between East and West German Women • 11 Since cultural and political differences are intricately interwoven and are virtually impossible to disentangle in terms of their effects on fertility behaviour immediately after political unifi cation, both aspects are dealt with simultaneously. However, it would be short-sighted to attribute the behavioural differences between individu- als from both sides to the political differences alone: The gender-based division of labour and resulting interdependence in the family, and the institutionalization of marriage, is as deeply culturally rooted in the South-West as is the independent position of women, their inclusion in the labour force, the secondary role played by marriage, the State’s responsibility for individual welfare in the North-East (Bertram 1996). Accordingly, most of the differences between these parts of Germany existed long before the establishment of the two political systems after the Second World War, and were subsequently enhanced by the, in some respects, mutually-antago- nistic social and family policies. For example, the proportion of individuals with no religious affi liation was already higher in East Germany before the establishment of the GDR, gained prevalence during its existence, and increased even further after political unifi cation. Also, the propensity for extramarital births was already high be- fore the GDR, increased steadily during its existence, and rose sharply after political unifi cation (Konietzka/Kreyenfeld 2005), whereas the higher level of the inclusion of mothers from the labour force before and during GDR times dropped sharply after unifi cation – not because of changing preferences, but because of receding oppor- tunities (Adler 2004). Marriage and the family as the “basic elements” of society were a crucial rhetoric component of socialist ideology in the GDR (Gysi 1989: 10). The social and family policies of the GDR regime met this standard inasmuch as considerable monetary and structural incentives were established in favour of family formation (Kreyen- feld 2004). Schneider et al. (1995: 2) estimate that, in that period, the State used to bear about 85 per cent of total child-related costs. Hence, scientists postulate in the literature on the welfare state that the comparatively high fertility rate in the GDR can be primarily attributed to windfall gains (Huinink 1995a). The “model: em- ployed mother” (Gysi/Meyer 1993) was predominant as a social norm, emanating from the possibility to simultaneously reconcile motherhood and employment. It is widely known that the GDR regime was acting under serious economic pressure stemming from the low productivity of the centrally-planned economy, as well as from massive waves of emigration in the 1950s. Hence, the political leadership was forced to offer women the opportunity to return to the labour market immediately after a child was born in order to take advantage of their labour force. Actually, the publicly-preached concept of an egalitarian gender model largely appears to be a romantic illusion (Dannenbeck et al. 1995). A culture of full-time employment among women nonetheless developed in the GDR, in contrast to most contem- porary Western countries (Dornseiff/Sackmann 2003). In fact, this culture was not restricted to childless women or women with older children, and it was defi nitely accepted by men. A tightly-meshed network of childcare facilities simultaneously provided the infrastructure needed to implement this model. Consequently, family formation was a normative biographical element for most East Germans: Schneider (1994: 138) provides estimates according to which 20 – 25 per cent of West German • Oliver Arránz Becker, Daniel Lois, Bernhard Nauck12 women remained childless at the end of the 1980s, whereas fewer than 10 per cent of East German women were permanently childless. An important facilitating factor for fertility decisions was the high degree of bio- graphical security and predictability in the GDR (Bertram 1995: 269). This exac- erbated the impact of the far-reaching loss of biographical and material security related to the system change. Previously unknown problems such as mass unem- ployment and increasingly precarious employment relationships then emerged. These socio-economic consequences of the transformation process interfered with the long-term planning of people’s own lives and made children a fi nancial risk fac- tor (Dorbritz/Schwarz 1996; Kreyenfeld in press). Early demographic studies inter- preted the abrupt changes in aggregate total fertility rates (TFR) after reunifi cation as a refl ection of these shock-like transformations (Eberstadt 1994; Witte/Wagner 1995). According to Gerlach and Stephan (2001), economic problems are partly re- sponsible for the lower life satisfaction in East Germany after the changes. Vari- ous empirical studies indicate that the gap between East and West Germany with respect to income and other aspects of the standard of living, but also as to overall satisfaction with life, has diminished since unifi cation; however, a complete leveling has not yet been accomplished (Geißler 2006: 77; Gerlach/Stephan 2001). This may have contributed to a convergence of East and West German fertility patterns after reunifi cation. Taking the socialization patterns in the GDR into account, a number of additional, unintended side effects of socialist propaganda can be observed, which may have thwarted all pronatalist policies in a subtle way. The socialist regime’s disapproval of and sanctions against religious activities considerably restrained the proliferation of denominational affi liations as well as of religious activities, hence exerting a deci- sive normative infl uence on the denominational composition of the population (Pol- lack 1998). The marginal role of religion has been fuelled by the lack of a traditional “Catholic culture” in East Germany (Pickel 2003). Previous studies fi nd no evidence of a revitalization of religiosity in East Germany after reunifi cation; in the course of the general secularization process, in fact, a further decline of denominational commitment can be observed in the new federal states (Pickel 2003; Pollack/Pickel 2003). In view of these sustained discrepancies, a harmonization of fertility patterns cannot be expected to occur in the short term. Additionally, the comparatively low normative value of marriage as an institu- tion, also refl ected by elevated divorce rates during the GDR period, may have con- tributed to the relatively low likelihood of East German couples to marry (Huinink 1999). Although the normative and empirical association between marriage and parenthood is traditionally weaker in East Germany than in West Germany (Koni- etzka/Kreyenfeld 2005), the larger number of unmarried couples, as well as the lim- ited denominational and religious commitment, respectively, might still exercise a general dampening effect on fertility (Huinink/Konietzka 2003). Unlike in the GDR, family policy in the FRG has never striven to achieve overtly pronatalist goals. For a long period, social and family policy has focused on mar- riage, which almost automatically included children (Dienel 2002: 21). The privacy of marriage and the family, as well as their status as autonomous institutions, were Differences in Fertility Patterns between East and West German Women • 13 generally respected; the State largely abandoned measures to actively stimulate family formation, confi ning its role to a passive protective position (Schneider et al. 1995: 9). Direct monetary or structural incentives for family formation comparable to those in the GDR were not established. In contrast, child-oriented motives towards marriage have been traditionally predominant in West Germany (Huinink/Konietzka 2003; Schneider 1994: 187). Ad- ditionally, regulations in tax legislation introduced in the 1950s (particularly the so- called “Ehegattensplitting”, a tax system geared to the combined income of hus- band and wife) provided rewards for a traditional division of labour in marriage: The wider the income gap grows, the greater are the resulting fi nancial gains for married couples (Dienel 2002: 87ff). Moreover, there has been a chronic shortage of child- care facilities, particularly crèches and full-time schools. Thus, it may be interpreted as a logical consequence that West German women predominantly adhere to the sequential model of combining family and employment according to which women follow a life course pattern of alternating stages of employment and childcare. When it comes to values and attitudes, these structural conditions correspond to the prevalent skepticism of public childcare and employment of women: Even in the mid-1990s, East and West Germany were still at the opposite ends of the European continuum concerning to acceptance of employment of mothers with preschool children (Treas/Widmer 2000). As regards more recent developments, studies have provided evidence that the occupational orientation among East and West German women has not yet completely converged. The employment rate of East German women in 2007 was signifi cantly higher than that of West German women (Federal Statistical Offi ce 2008: Table 4.5). As for the GDR, another attitude became apparent that was obviously unintend- ed by the political protagonists: Despite (or even because of) the regime’s efforts to keep citizens under permanent and comprehensive surveillance, the population apparently developed a strong family orientation (Huinink 1995a: 39). Some authors argue that the State’s intrusion into people’s privacy made the population shift the focus of their lives from the public political domain to privacy within the family. Paradoxically, the regime’s attempts to intrude into citizens’ private lives instead led to an unintended revaluation of family life. It thus stimulated the desire for a kind of individual “counter-world”, a hideaway within the surveillance society. After all, the consequences of the transformation process on family values are ambiguous. On the one hand, it can be assumed from the life course perspective that the biographi- cal and economic impact caused by the transformation has resulted in increased tension and confl icts in the family (Elder/Caspi 1990: 29), which, in turn, might have reduced family orientations. In accordance with Schelsky’s (1953) studies on chang- es in families after the Second World War, it may be hypothesized, on the other hand, that cohesion and commitment within the family served as resources that helped to ease the negative impacts of unifi cation (Franz/Herlyn 1995: 93). In summary, it may be assumed that, on the one hand, the East and West Ger- man subpopulations still differ signifi cantly in their composition (e.g. denomina- tional affi liations, empirical associations between marriage and parenthood, etc.), • Oliver Arránz Becker, Daniel Lois, Bernhard Nauck14 as well as in their socio-cultural orientations (work and family orientation of women, religiosity) and, on the other hand, in the sustained impact of the transformation. 1.3 Hypotheses Concerning Differences in Fertility Patterns between East and West German Women Considering existing research on parity-specifi c fertility differentials between East and West German women after reunifi cation, we fi rst expect differing family pat- terns: 1. East German women exhibit a higher likelihood of fi rst births, but a lower likelihood of second births, in the post-unifi cation period. Further hypotheses concern the impact of differing socialization experiences of East and West German women, as well as effects of the societal transforma- tion processes on parity-specifi c fertility patterns. Decreased opportunities on the labour market and uncertainties in biographical options after political unifi cation have lowered life satisfaction and reduced the household incomes of East German women. Because both income and satisfaction with life are expected to raise fertil- ity,2 the following hypothesis is formed: 2. The consequences of the transformation process outlined above have ex- erted an inhibiting effect on the fertility behaviour of East German women. Furthermore, we expect a high degree of continuity with regard to the socio- cultural characteristics of the East and West German subpopulations which may be partly responsible for the different fertility patterns. Educational level has been found to inhibit the transition to parenthood, but to increase the likelihood of a sec- ond birth. Occupational orientation is expected to exert a negative impact on fertil- ity, irrespective of parity: 3. The transition to fi rst and second births is reduced among East German women due to their stronger occupational orientation. 4. The higher level of education among East German women decreases their likelihood of fi rst births but increases the transition rate to second births. Existing research indicates a generally positive effect of family orientation to- wards fertility: 2 There might be a non-linear association between income and fertility because of a positive price effect in low-income groups and a negative effect in high-income groups due to substitu- tion of quality for quantity of children (Becker 1973). Differences in Fertility Patterns between East and West German Women • 15 5. The transition rate to fi rst and second births is increased among East Ger- man women due to their stronger family orientation. The empirical literature suggests that the impact of religion on fertility may be ambiguous. Although religious commitment raises fertility among married couples, it may delay their time until marriage. We thus examine the following research ques- tion: How does weaker denominational commitment and lower religiosity impact the relative likelihood of fi rst and second births for East German women? 2 Data and Approach 2.1 Dataset and Analyses Existing studies on fertility patterns in East and West Germany after unifi cation have been based on the analysis of retrospective survey data which either do not contain information on subjective preferences and values, or the available information is measured retrospectively for subjects who have already become mothers. In iden- tifying causal effects, the panel approach is superior inasmuch as the collection of covariate data is supposed to take place prior to the occurrence of the event. For that reason, we utilize data of the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP, samples A-E, waves G-W (including Z), 1990-2006), a panel survey that started in West Germany in 1984 and in East Germany in 1990, with subsequent waves conducted annually. Beyond socio-demographic standard indicators, the SOEP also contains data on attitudes, such as work aspirations and family orientation or religiosity, which is crucial for our research problem. We are not aware of any other published study on the topic that is based on more recent data. It should be noted that there are major differences between event history analy- ses based on retrospective and panel data in terms of sample composition. Using panel data, the period of observation refers to historical time intervals (in our case, from 1990 to 2006), whereas in a retrospective design a life course perspective is adopted (i.e. following individuals from the beginning of process time). As a con- sequence, panel samples partly consist of respondents who have been at risk for a prolonged period of time prior to the fi rst panel wave without experiencing the event (left truncation, see Guo 1993). In order to reduce the degree of left truncation as far as possible and to increase comparability with existing research, the sample comprises 17- to 36-year-old women of birth cohorts 1970 and younger who were either childless (analysis of fi rst birth) or who already had one child (analysis of • Oliver Arránz Becker, Daniel Lois, Bernhard Nauck16 second birth) in 1990, or at the beginning of the observational period, respectively.3 The resulting sample contains women in non-marital and marital unions who do or do not share a household with their partners. To avoid potential selection bias, persons who did not have a partner at the time of the interview were also included in the sample. We analyse the transition to fi rst and second births by utilizing discrete-time event history analysis based on conditional likelihoods (e.g. Singer/Willett 2003), which is particularly appropriate for panel data (Guo 1993). Within this framework, the dependent variable is binary and indicates whether the event of interest does or does not occur between two panel observations. The central concept of event history analysis is the transition rate, which, in the discrete-time case, may be inter- preted as the conditional probability of a change of state at time t (Pr), provided that the observation units belong to the risk set until time t (T = t), i.e. that no event has been observed for them so far. We thus use a multi-spell model in which subjects are defi ned to be at risk until the dependent event or right-censoring occurs. The data are arranged in such a way that each year of observation represents a single episode (so-called person years). The risk period comprises a maximum of seventeen panel waves (1990-2006). For instance, if a woman does not give birth to a child in seventeen subsequent waves, the dataset contains seventeen right-censored person years (rows). The period of observation ends in case of a fi rst or second birth, respectively, or of right-censor- ing (or panel attrition). Table 1 shows the resulting sample sizes and the number of births observed (after listwise deletion of missing cases). Tab. 1: Sample size and number of births observed (17- to 36-year-old women of birth cohorts beginning in 1970) West German subsample East German subsample Total n Childless women 1550 645 2195 Women with one child 611 263 874 Number of birth events First births 373 149 522 Second births 266 72 338 Source: SOEP (Waves G-W, 1990-2006, own calculations) 3 In order to completely avoid the left truncation of data (i.e. observing respondents from age 15 onwards), in the chosen period of observation it would be mandatory to restrict the analyses to birth cohorts since 1975 which would have led to an insuffi cient number of observations. The analytical trade-off between a suffi cient sample size and comparability to existing life course studies chosen here was to include birth cohorts since 1970. Differences in Fertility Patterns between East and West German Women • 17 A standard probit regression model is used in order to estimate the effects of covariates on the transition rate. It contains the duration of remaining in the initial state (indicated by age) as a covariate. In the tables, unstandardized regression (b) coeffi cients are displayed. Accordingly, positive (negative) coeffi cients indicate a positive (negative) effect of the covariate on the transition rate. This paper focuses on the roles that various intervening variables (e.g. educa- tion and religiosity) play with respect to the effect of the characteristic “West vs. East German” on the transition rates to fi rst and second births. The literature distin- guishes between two data constellations in such a framework: mediation and sup- pression (cf. MacKinnon et al.2000). The direct effect of a predictor X (here: West vs. East German) on the dependent variable Y (here: transition rate) may either rise (suppression) or diminish (mediation) after a control variable Z (here: distinct social characteristics of East and West Germans determining fertility) is introduced into the model. The indirect effect of X on Y, mediated by Z, is calculated as the product of the two direct effects (X → Z and Z → Y). In case of mediation, the direct effect of X on Y has the same algebraic sign as the indirect effect; in case of suppression, the signs of the direct and the indirect effects are different. In the standard hierarchical regression procedure, the indirect effect is usually inferred from the change in the coeffi cient for the effect X → Y after multivariately controlling for potential intervening variables. Since this procedure does not yield a statistical test of mediation or suppression, we compute additional path models (from the same dataset) based on the empirical covariance matrix of the model variables (for an introduction to covariance structure analysis, see Reinecke 2005). These path models were computed with the Mplus software (Muthén/Muthén 2007) and yield coeffi cients that are virtually identical to conventional event history analy- sis; however, they also provide additional information concerning the statistical sig- nifi cance of the effects X → Z and, therefore, of the corresponding indirect effects that cannot be estimated in conventional analyses. Effects on the transition rates to fi rst and second births (and other binary model variables) are estimated by probit regressions (McCullagh/Nelder 1989) with robust standard errors (Huber-White cor- rection). The operationalization of the various covariates will be explained below: 1. Process time: In the transition to fi rst birth, the bell shape of the transition rate is modeled by using age as a linear and a logarithmic term. The age of the fi rst child is used in the models for the second birth, along with a loga- rithmic term. 2. In order to identify period effects, the serial number of the panel wave is controlled for. 3. Type of partnership is captured via a categorical time-varying variable, with one of the following four values: marriage, unmarried couple (non-marital unions with a shared household), “living apart together” (unmarried, sepa- rate households) and single (i.e. no partner). 4. Level of education is operationalized as a time-varying covariate, accord- ing to the CASMIN classifi cation which takes into consideration school, vo- cational and professional education and assumes an ascending order of • Oliver Arránz Becker, Daniel Lois, Bernhard Nauck18 certifi cates and qualifi cations (Brauns/Steinmann 1999). The original ten categories were transformed into the years of schooling required to obtain the respective leaving qualifi cations in Germany (coding scheme: CASMIN 0=12 years; 1a=8; 1b=9; 1c=11; 2a=12; 2b=10; 2c_gen=13; 2c_voc=15; 3a=16; 3b=18). 5. Educational status is measured by a time-varying dummy variable, which is coded as “1” if the subject is currently enrolled in the educational sys- tem (secondary education or vocational training and tertiary education re- spectively, excluding further training). Educational status is introduced as a time-lagged variable in order to avoid biased effect estimators due to a reversal of the causal order. 6. Indicators of occupation and family orientation are based on the question of how important work, occupational achievements and family life, re- spectively, are for the respondents (four-point scale, 4 “very important”, 3 “important”, 2 “rather unimportant”, 1 “very unimportant”).4 In the period under observation, these items were assessed in fi ve waves (1992, 1994, 1998, 1999 and 2004). For the waves 1990 and 1991, the value from the 1992 wave was taken over; subsequently, values from the previous wave are taken until the corresponding characteristic is assessed again. 7. Additionally, net weighted household income is measured by a time-de- pendent, lagged variable. The weight is determined from the number of persons living in the household (according to the new OECD scale: princi- pal earner = 1.0, other persons in the household over age 14 = 0.5, persons in the household under age 14 = 0.3; cf. Geißler 2006: 79). The resulting weighted income is logarithmized to compensate for the right-skewed dis- tribution. 8. Religiosity (z score) is operationalized by the item “frequency of church- going and attendance at other religious events” and the question of how important religion is for the respondent (four-point scales). In the observa- tional period, subjects were interviewed eleven times as regards the fre- quency of churchgoing (1990, 1992, each year in the period 1994-1999, then every second wave), with the response categories 1 “never”, 2 “seldom”, 3 “monthly”, 4 “weekly”. The question concerning the importance of religion (same response categories as in 6.) was assessed three times (1994, 1998, 1999). Between 1994 and 2000, religiosity is computed by averaging over both indicators; in all other waves, only the frequency of churchgoing is used. 9. Additionally, a set of dummy variables for religious denomination was used (four categories: no denomination, Catholic, Protestant, other denomina- tion). The corresponding information was gathered in 1990 (waves G and Z respectively), 1997 (N) and 2003 (T). 10. Life satisfaction is measured on a scale from 1 to 10 (from 1 = highly dissat- isfi ed to 10 = very satisfi ed). This item has been used in all SOEP waves (ex- ception: 1991) and enters into the analysis as time-dependent and lagged (i.e. from t-1). 4 As regards family orientation, respondents were asked in 1994, 1998 and 1999 how important family was for their satisfaction. In 1992 and 2004, respondents were asked how important their own children were for their satisfaction. Differences in Fertility Patterns between East and West German Women • 19 11. Availability of informal childcare is operationalized by a time-varying dum- my variable, coded 1 if the respondent’s mother or father lives either in the respondent’s household or in the vicinity. 12. The dummy indicator for East vs. West German is based on the current place of residence. Residential mobility between the two parts of Germany is captured in that the variable is coded as time-varying. 3 Results The empirical analyses follow a two-step procedure: In section 3.1, time trends in the fertility determinants mentioned over the period under observation (1990-2006) are analysed, focusing on differences between the East and West German sub-sam- ples. The second step is to test whether the East and West German women under study differ in their transition rate to the fi rst and second child, and whether any differential trends across time (i.e. harmonization or divergence) can be identifi ed (Chapter 3.2). Additionally, each of the intervening mechanisms is tested on a mul- tivariate basis through the computation of indirect effects. 3.1 Development of Fertility Determinants in East and West Germany over Time Figure 1 graphically displays the mean differences in potential fertility determinants among the interviewed East and West German women over time. The data points depicted were calculated by subtracting the East German from the West German means at each time of measurement. Accordingly, a positive value means that West German women score higher on average compared to East German women, whereas a negative difference score implies a relatively lower mean for West Ger- man women. The period under observation (i.e. 17 panel waves) is represented on the horizontal axis.5 The analysis includes all women from birth cohorts 1970 and younger. In general terms, the assumptions with regard to key differences between East and West German women are largely confi rmed empirically: Whereas the East Ger- man women from our sample have a higher occupational and family orientation, they are less religious and less satisfi ed with their lives and possess fewer eco- nomic resources than the West German women. In line with existing research (e.g. Gerlach/Stephan 2001; Geißler 2006), fi g- ure 1 shows a trend towards convergence of both life satisfaction and household incomes in East and West Germany. Additional analyses (not shown) indicate that 5 The analysis consists of panel and trend components. As to the panel part, our results indicate the degree to which individual subjects change, on average, across time. Concerning the trend component, some subjects enter the sample at a later stage (e.g. because of changes in the household composition or in the context of the 1998 supplement sample). • Oliver Arránz Becker, Daniel Lois, Bernhard Nauck20 the life satisfaction and household income of East German individuals, relative to West Germans, have risen over time. Moreover, the differences as regards family orientation, only observed for 1992 and 1994, have evened out. If we focus on child- less couples, however East German women in fact turn out to be signifi cantly more family oriented, even in 2004.6 In terms of all the other characteristics represented in the diagram, a considerable degree of continuity of the differences between East and West German women can Fig. 1: Differences between East and West German women in potentially- relevant fertility determinants over time (birth cohorts beginning in 1970) -0,6 -0,4 -0,2 0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Work aspirations Family orientation Religiousness Life satisfaction Household income Difference west-east (z values) Note: In the waves for 1994, 1998 and 1999, religiosity is computed by averaging over frequency of churchgoing and subjective importance of religion; in all other waves only frequency of churchgoing is used. Source: SOEP (Waves G-W, 1990-2006, own calculations) 6 All differences between East and West Germany displayed in Figure 1 are statistically signifi cant at least at the 5 percent level according to t tests. The only exceptions are the non-signifi cant mean differences in family orientation in 1998, 1999, and 2004. Differences in Fertility Patterns between East and West German Women • 21 be observed over time. This also applies to occupational orientation and religiosity. Taken together, we conclude that the differences between East and West Germany as regards the fertility determinants analysed (stemming either from socialization or from the transformation process) have not ceased to exist. Bearing this in mind, there is little reason to expect social homogeneity or similar fertility patterns (see the following section) across both parts of Germany. 3.2 Period-Specifi c Differences in Fertility Patterns between East and West German Women 3.2.1 Descriptive fi ndings In order to describe the differences between East and West German women’s like- lihood of fi rst and second births, we use nonparametric survivor functions (see Fig. 2). Regarding the transition to fi rst-time parenthood, it can be ascertained that East German women tend to become parents sooner than West German women, although this difference is not particularly pronounced before age 25. This differ- ential is reversed when it comes to second births: West Germans exhibit a clearly accelerated rate of second births once they have become fi rst-time parents. Both results are well in line with fi ndings from life course studies. Beyond a mere description of fertility processes in East and West Germany, the primary focus of this study is on the explanation of the differing relative transition rates of East and West German women concerning fi rst and second births. In the following sections, differentials between East and West German women are traced back to the various intervening variables outlined above. 3.2.2 Differentials in the Transition to Parenthood: An In-depth Explanation The regression models shown in Table 2 serve to determine whether the differences depicted in the survivor functions are statistically signifi cant. There is a signifi cantly higher likelihood of fi rst births among East German women overall in the period 1990 through 2006 (Tab. 2, model 1), supporting Hypothesis 1.7 The remaining models (2 through 5) in Table 2 serve to explain this initial differ- ence. The fi rst set of covariates is introduced in model 2. There are negative effects on the transition rate of educational status (Blossfeld/Huinink 1991) and work aspira- tions (Barber 2001). Although the effect of years of education tends to be negative, it remains insignifi cant until income and life satisfaction are controlled for (model 3). Availability of informal childcare exerts a positive effect on the transition to parent- hood (Hank et al. 2004), whereas religiosity has no impact. 7 Additional analyses showed that the difference remained invariant across time, indicated by in- signifi cant interaction effects between the dummy “West German” and the period indicators. • Oliver Arránz Becker, Daniel Lois, Bernhard Nauck22 Fig. 2: Transition to fi rst and second births in East and West Germany (nonparametric survival functions) 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1,0 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 East West proportion of childless women Age of women Note: 17- to 36-year-old women of birth cohorts beginning in 1970 Source: SOEP (Waves G-W, 1990-2006, own calculations) 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1,0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 East West proportion of women with one child Age of first child Differences in Fertility Patterns between East and West German Women • 23 Tab. 2: Predictors of transition to fi rst birth (discrete-time survival analysis, b coeffi cients with z values in parentheses) Model 1 2 3 4 5 West Germany -.10* -.15** -.20** -.08 -.02 (-2.19) (-3.19) (-4.06) (-1.43) (-0.33) Years of education - -.01 -.02* -.02* -.01 (-1.51) (-2.08) (-2.31) (-1.31) In education - -.50** -.49** -.47** -.33** (-9.63) (-9.33) (-8.87) (-5.57) Work aspirations - -.14** -.14** -.18** -.13** (-4.06) (-3.98) (-4.97) (-3.48) Religiousness (z score) - .02 .02 .03 .01 (0.82) (0.77) (1.01) (0.17) Informal childcare available - .25** .26** .28** .60** (5.03) (5.19) (5.44) (10.03) Household income (ln) - - .19** .13** .03 (4.22) (2.68) (0.68) General life satisfaction - - .01 .01 -.01 (0.98) (0.76) (-0.85) Family orientation - - - .33** .24** (8.89) (6.06) No religious denomination - - - .18** .11 (2.66) (1.61) Protestant - - - .04 -.01 (0.70) (-0.10) Other denomination - - - .08 -.08 (0.92) (-0.80) Type of union: Marriage - - - - 1.66** (18.89) Type of union: Cohabitation - - - - 1.23** (11.15) Type of union: LAT - - - - .43** (4.89) West Germany × cohabitation - - - - -.36** (-3.29) Age of woman (-14) -.07** -.04+ -.04+ -.01 .02 (-2.86) (-1.75) (-1.70) (-0.28) (0.79) Age of woman (-14) (ln) 2.36** 1.06** .98** .64* .05 (5.94) (4.05) (3.72) (2.42) (0.16) Panel wave -.02** -.01 .00 .01 .03** (-3.75) (-1.19) (0.00) (1.38) (3.51) Reduction of Log Likelihood 201.1** 351.4** 371.8** 474.0** 1062.4** Note: + p= .10; * p= .05; ** p= .01; Link function: Probit; women aged 17 to 36, from birth cohorts beginning in 1970; n = 522 birth events, n = 10,389 person years; reference for religious denomination: catholic; reference for type of union: women without partner; fl ag variables for missing type of union and missing religious de- nomination have been added to models 4 & 5. Source: SOEP (Waves G-W, 1990-2006, own calculations) • Oliver Arránz Becker, Daniel Lois, Bernhard Nauck24 Beyond these direct effects, it becomes obvious in model 2 that the differen- tial between East and West German women grows even stronger (from b=-.10 to b=-.15) after controlling for the aforementioned factors. A glance at the correspond- ing indirect effects in Table 3 further qualifi es these results. The positive sign of the indirect effects which differs from the negative sign of the dummy for “West German” suggests that East German women exhibit a slightly higher likelihood of fi rst births, despite being more highly educated (supporting Hypothesis 4) and more work-oriented (see Hypothesis 3). Hence, statistically controlling for the latter vari- ables actually increases the existing differential.8 In contrast, educational status and religiosity do not generate any change in the East-West differential (insignifi - cant indirect effects). Model 3 reveals that, whereas net household income has a positive impact on the likelihood of a fi rst birth (Schoen et al. 1999), there is no effect of general life satisfaction. More importantly, these two factors do not seem to explain the dif- ferential between East and West Germany, but in fact they increase it further. The positive indirect effect of household income indicates that the relative gap in fi rst births in West Germany would tend to be even wider if East German households had economic resources similar to West German couples. This fi nding partly cor- roborates Hypothesis 2. The most striking results are shown in model 4. The direct effects depicted sug- gest that family orientation generally increases the propensity to start a family. A surprising result concerns religious denomination: Respondents who are non-de- nominational exhibit a higher likelihood of fi rst births than those who belong to a denomination. Although this fi nding may seem counterintuitive at a fi rst glance, a closer inspection reveals that it is corroborated by existing research. For example, Techman and Schollaert (1991) report that, whereas religion increases the rate at which married couples start a family, it also greatly delays the time before marriage. Hence, religious people seem to devote more time to the search for a partner, but once they have committed themselves to their partners (e.g. by marrying), they readily become parents. In empirical terms, the delaying effect of religion on mar- riage seems to outweigh its accelerating effect on fertility after marriage. Thornton et al. (1992) report similar fi ndings. We are able to replicate these results: In model 5, the positive effect of “no denomination” becomes insignifi cant once the type of relationship is controlled for. The central result from model 4 concerns the insignifi cant effect of West vs. East German. Turning to the strong negative indirect effects in Table 3, it becomes evi- dent that the lower rate of fi rst births among West German women can be entirely explained by their lower family orientation (see Hypothesis 5), and by their stronger denominational commitment (Research question); whereas 84.9 % of the childless in the West German sub-sample have a religious denomination, the proportion is 8 As a non-technical interpretation of this result, one could think about the following hypothetical case: If East and West German women were similar in their work aspirations and in their edu- cational level, the relative defi cit of fi rst births of West (as compared to East) German women would be even more pronounced than it already is. Differences in Fertility Patterns between East and West German Women • 25 as low as 25.6 % among East German women. In sum, the higher rate of fi rst births among East German women as compared to West Germans after unifi cation can be explained by differing long-lasting cultural differences between these two sub- populations, namely the differing role of religion and attitudinal discrepancies with regard to family orientation. The last model 5 controls for the type of relationship, along with an interaction effect between type of relationship and the dummy variable “West German”.9 Three important insights result from this model. First, the more committed the type of partnership, the higher the likelihood of fi rst births (cf. Heaton et al. 1999), although the corresponding effects now refer to East Germany (cf. Frazier et al. 2004). Sec- ond, the positive impact of non-marital cohabitation (compared to being single) is signifi cantly more pronounced among East German women, a fi nding that is in line with existing research (see Konietzka/Kreyenfeld 2005). Third, the effects of educa- tion and household income are not causal; rather, they are fully explained by the type of relationship. 9 Note that in this model, the main effect of West German becomes conditional in that it refers to respondents without a partner (cf. Frazier et al. 2004). Hence, this effect is not interpreted further. Tab. 3: Specifi c indirect effects of residence in West Germany on the transition to fi rst birth Indirect effect Beta t West German in education hazard rate .010 1.43 West German years of education hazard rate .015* 2.25 West German work aspirations hazard rate .025** 3.80 West German religiousness hazard rate .008 0.95 West German life satisfaction hazard rate .007 0.78 West German household income hazard rate .019* 2.03 West German informal childcare available hazard rate -.008 -1.53 West German family orientation hazard rate -.032** -3.41 West German no denomination hazard rate -.094* -2.48 West German protestant hazard rate .005 0.61 West German other denomination hazard rate .005 0.74 Note: + p= .10; * p= .05; ** p= .01; Link function: Probit; women aged 17 to 36, from birth cohorts beginning in 1970; n = 522 birth events, n = 10,389 person years; model specifi cation derived from model 4 in table 2; reference for religious denomi- nation: Catholic Source: SOEP (Waves G-W, 1990-2006, own calculations) • Oliver Arránz Becker, Daniel Lois, Bernhard Nauck26 3.2.3 Differentials in the Likelihood of Second Birth: An In-depth Explanation In line with previous studies (Dornseiff/Sackmann 2003), West German women ex- hibit a considerably higher likelihood of transition to a second birth (see Fig. 2, lower panel). This effect is statistically signifi cant (see Tab. 4, model 1) and even stronger than the differential concerning the transition to parenthood. Additional interaction effects with the panel wave were calculated. Similar to the results for the fi rst child, no shift over time in the difference between East and West German women can be observed. Characteristics of East German women that should promote fertility are intro- duced in model 2. Family orientation has a clearly positive direct impact on the transition rate (Schoen et al. 1999). In contrast to its negative effect on fi rst births, neither level of education nor enrolment in the educational system exhibit any effect on the likelihood of second births. As indicated by the insignifi cant indirect effects (see Tab. 5), none of the three variables account for the East-West differential. In model 3, we control for variables that should decrease the relative transition rate of East German women to their second child, thus serving as potential explana- tory factors for the East-West differential. Similar to fi rst births, the availability of in- formal childcare has an effect (albeit a small one) on the rate of transition to second births. We fi nd positive effects of religiosity (Brose 2006) and life satisfaction and a negative impact of work aspirations (Budig 2003). Religious denominations do not exert any effect beyond religiosity, though. The positive indirect effects of these three variables (see Tab. 5) indicate that they provide a partial explanation of the dif- ferential concerning second births between East and West German women. West German women are thus more likely to have a second birth partly because they are less work-oriented, more religious and more satisfi ed with their lives, in line with Hypotheses 2 and 3.10 However, the difference is not fully explained because the coeffi cient for West Germany remains signifi cant in model 3 (see Tab. 4). Moreover, model 4 indicates that both cohabiting and being married to the part- ner signifi cantly increase the likelihood of second births (as compared to not having a partner). Additionally, it can be seen in model 4 that the effects of work aspirations, family orientation and life satisfaction are confounded with type of relationship. 10 Because there is neither a linear nor a quadratic effect of household income on the likelihood of second births, this variable is not included in the analyses. Differences in Fertility Patterns between East and West German Women • 27 Tab. 4: Predictors of transition to second birth (discrete time survival analysis, b coeffi cients with z values in parentheses) Model 1 2 3 4 West Germany .31** .33** .23* .23* (4.74) (4.69) (2.45) (2.33) Years of education - .01 .01 .00 (0.44) (0.66) (0.06) In education - -.02 .01 .16 (-0.22) (0.06) (1.35) Family orientation - .23** .20** .09 (2.85) (2.83) (0.97) Religiousness (z score) - - .08* .08* (2.32) (2.12) No denomination - - .01 .06 (0.11) (0.59) Protestant - - .11 .17+ (1.06) (1.92) Other denomination - - .18 .12 (1.43) (1.08) Work aspirations - - -.08* -.06 (-1.96) (-1.29) General life satisfaction - - .04* .01 (2.00) (0.52) Informal child care available - - .18+ .19+ (1.82) (1.69) Type of union: Marriage - - - .94** (5.32) Type of union: Cohabitation - - - .89** (4.66) Type of union: LAT - - - .26 (1.04) Age of first child (+1) -.46** -.45** -.45** -.47** (-10.48) (-10.30) (-9.91) (-8.82) Age of first child (+1) (ln) 2.19** 2.15** 2.11** 2.21** (11.62) (11.37) (10.70) (9.68) Panel wave -.02* -.01+ -.01 -.01 (-2.19) (-1.72) (-1.02) (-0.85) Reduction of Log Likelihood 257.5** 266.8** 290.0** 338.1** Note: + p= .10; * p= .05; ** p= .01; Link function: Probit; women aged 18 to 36, from birth cohorts beginning in 1970; n = 338 birth events, n = 3,387 person years; ref- erence for religious denomination: Catholic; reference for type of union: women without partner; fl ag variables for missing type of union and missing religious de- nomination have been added to models 3 & 4. Source: SOEP (Waves G-W, 1990-2006, own calculations) • Oliver Arránz Becker, Daniel Lois, Bernhard Nauck28 4 Summary and Discussion The present study compared the value of two approaches to explaining the fertility differential between East and West Germany. The fi rst highlights the role of dis- crepancies in attitudes and values, stemming from both long-standing sociocultural differences and from experiences in two opposite political systems. The second approach stresses the role of temporary strains (e.g. economic and biographical insecurities) in the aftermath of the system change that has taken place. With regard to the fi rst approach, we fi nd that even more than one decade after uni- fi cation there is still evidence of sustained socio-cultural differences that reduce the relative transition rate to fi rst and second births among East German as compared to West German women). First, the lack of denominational affi liation and religios- ity among East German women has to be mentioned. The historical roots of these characteristics lie in a long-standing secular tradition which was reinforced by the antireligious doctrine of the socialist regime (Pollack 1998). The implications of this peripheral role of religion in East Germany are, however, rather complex. Whereas it leads to an acceleration of fi rst births (fuelled by a stronger tendency to com- mit oneself to a partner), it seems to reduce the propensity towards second births. Secondly, according to the literature (Adler 2004), East German women continue to exhibit particularly pronounced occupational aspirations. This feature still has an independent negative effect on the rate of transition to fi rst and second births. Remarkably, however, East German women are characterized not only by a higher occupational orientation. At the same time, these women (at least those who remain Tab. 5: Specifi c indirect effects of residence in West Germany on the transition to second birth Indirect effect b t West German in education hazard rate .001 0.06 West German years of education hazard rate -.011 -0.66 West German work aspirations hazard rate .021+ 1.83 West German religiousness hazard rate .036* 2.19 West German life satisfaction hazard rate .018+ 1.85 West German family orientation hazard rate -.011 -1.56 West German no religious denomination hazard rate .009 0.12 West German protestant hazard rate .027 0.77 West German other religious denomination hazard rate .014 0.54 West German informal childcare available hazard rate .002 0.40 Note: + p= .10; * p= .05; Link function: Probit; women aged 18 to 36, from birth cohorts beginning in 1970; n = 338 birth events, n = 3,387 person years; model specifi cation derived from model 3 in table 4; reference for religious denomination: Catholic. Source: SOEP (Waves G-W, 1990-2006, own calculations) Differences in Fertility Patterns between East and West German Women • 29 childless) also exhibit a signifi cantly higher family orientation. This, in turn, has a positive effect on fertility. The second approach argues that negative consequences of the political trans- formation have temporarily restricted fertility processes in East Germany. We fi nd little evidence that the fertility differential between East and West Germany is a result of socio-economic consequences of the transformation process. Although the East German women’s lower household incomes tend to operate as a suppres- sor variable for their elevated risk of fi rst births, its effect becomes insignifi cant once relationship type is controlled for. Moreover, their lower life satisfaction only marginally contributes to explaining their lower risk of second births. However, it should be noted that the sample included only the birth cohorts starting from 1970. Those women who were relatively young (20 and younger) at the time of reunifi ca- tion had a number of years in front of them before the fertility processes studied in the present article typically become prevalent. Hence, it is not very surprising that the fertility behaviour of these women was not seriously affected by the societal transformation process because they had plenty of time to recover from the fi rst “shock”. Further research is required to compare these younger cohorts to older women from a genuine period-specifi c perspective, something beyond the scope of the present article. Nonetheless, we are able to fully explain the differential in fi rst births between East and West Germany in the selected “post-unifi cation” cohorts by means of the modeled intervening variables; to our knowledge, this has not been done in previ- ous studies. Although the differing transition rates to the second child could also be partially explained, a residual difference however remains unaccounted for by the available explanatory factors. In general terms, the present study substantially extends previous research by using a panel approach instead of conventional event history analyses or trend descriptions based on register data. We thereby managed to disentangle differ- ent types of factors underlying the persistent fertility differential between East and West Germany: short-term period effects of the German reunifi cation, long-term cultural differences between the East and West German subpopulations and struc- tural differences in educational and labour market opportunities. Computing indi- rect effects within a path model framework made it possible to assess the direction and relative strength of the various intervening mechanisms. Whereas the fi ndings of most existing studies relate to the immediate effects of the societal transforma- tion of East Germany (Kreyenfeld/Konietzka 2004), or integrate them into the general framework of “catch up modernization” (Schneider et al. 1995) and of demographic transition models, this panel study also accounts for persisting regional cultural differences within Germany, as indicated by religious affi liation, family orientation and work aspirations. It is not necessarily the existence, but rather the persistence of sociocultural differences between East and West Germany, that is surprising. Although coarse, cross-sectional measures such as the TFR might suggest a picture of convergence or adaptation, we feel that characterizing the corresponding fertility trends with these terms does not adequately refl ect the complex puzzle underlying • Oliver Arránz Becker, Daniel Lois, Bernhard Nauck30 the differing, parity-specifi c fertility patterns in the Eastern and Western parts of Germany. Moreover, the study challenges the prevalent view of the political unifi cation of Germany as being a kind of “natural experiment”. In fact, this view presupposes a homogeneous population, within which one group experiences a defi ned “treat- ment”. Empirical evidence shows that regional cultural differences already existed prior to the existence of the GDR, and it is unclear whether the FRG represents a valid control group. Accordingly, the homogeneity criterion is massively violated. Consequently, this study follows a theoretical framework within which fertility tran- sitions are conceptualized in a combined context and life-course approach (Nauck 1995: 46ff, 2000; Hank 2002, 2003): Social contexts provide not only opportunity structures for the realization of individual action preferences and serve as targets of selective migration, but are also places of social control, of transmission of cultural patterns and ways of life, as well as objects of identifi cation. As far as the dataset that was used allows for the inspection of the latter mechanisms, this study is the fi rst to account for such long-lasting socio-cultural differences between East Ger- man and West German women. Finally, some limitations of the present study should be mentioned. One caveat is that we cannot apply a dyadic design to the analyses because the sample is re- stricted to women. Unfortunately, there are no data available in the SOEP for male partners not living in the respondent’s household. However, the high unemploy- ment rate of male partners in the new federal states might be relevant with regard to the fertility patterns examined. Moreover, the data available do not enable us to completely explain all parity-specifi c differences in fertility patterns between East and West Germany. Some unobserved heterogeneity remains for the transition to second births; further research is required here. Lastly, it should be taken into con- sideration that, in some cases, it was only possible to measure the relevant attitudes with single-item indicators. This may have had a negative infl uence on the reliability of the instruments and, consequently, might have reduced the explanatory power of the models. 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In: American Journal of Sociology 98,3: 628-651 Treas, Judith; Widmer, Eric D., 2000: Married women’s employment over the life course: Attitudes in cross-national perspective. In: Social Forces 78,4: 1409-1436 Witte, James C.; Wagner, Gert, 1995: Declining fertility in East Germany after unifi ca- tion: A demographic response to socioeconomic change. In: Population and Develop- ment Review 21: 387-397 A German translation of this authorised original article by the Authors is available under the title “Unterschiede in den Fertilitätsmustern zwischen ost- und westdeutschen Frauen”, DOI 10.4232/10. CPoS-2010-02de or URN urn:nbn:de:bib-cpos-2010-02de0, at http://www.comparativepopulation- studies.de. Dr. Oliver Arránz Becker ( ), Dr. Daniel Lois, Prof. Dr. Bernhard Nauck. TU Chemnitz, Institut für Soziologie. Thüringer Weg 9. 09107 Chemnitz. E-Mail: oliver.arranz-becker@soziologie.tu-chemnitz.de, daniel.lois@soziologie.tu- chemnitz.de, bernhard.nauck@soziologie.tu-chemnitz.de Published by / Herausgegeben von Prof. Dr. Norbert F. Schneider Layout and print: Federal Institute for Population Research, Wiesbaden (Germany) Managing Editor / Redaktion Frank Swiaczny Copy Editor / Schlußredaktion Dr. Evelyn Grünheid Scientifi c Advisory Board / Wissenschaftlicher Beirat Jürgen Dorbritz (Wiesbaden) Paul Gans (Mannheim) Johannes Huinink (Bremen) Dirk J. van de Kaa (Den Haag) Marc Luy (Wien) Notburga Ott (Bochum) Peter Preisendörfer (Mainz) Comparative Population Studies – Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft www.comparativepopulationstudies.de ISSN: 1869-8980 (Print) – 1869-8999 (Internet) Board of Reviewers / Gutachterbeirat Martin Abraham (Erlangen) Laura Bernardi (Lausanne) Hansjörg Bucher (Bonn) Claudia Diehl (Göttingen) Andreas Diekmann (Zürich) Gabriele Doblhammer-Reiter (Rostock) Henriette Engelhardt-Wölfl er (Bamberg) E.-Jürgen Flöthmann (Bielefeld) Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz (Wien) Beat Fux (Zürich) Joshua Goldstein (Rostock) Karsten Hank (Mannheim) Sonja Haug (Regensburg) Franz-Josef Kemper (Berlin) Hans-Peter Kohler (Philadelphia) Michaela Kreyenfeld (Rostock) Aart C. Liefbroer (Den Haag) Kurt Lüscher (Konstanz) Dimiter Philipov (Wien) Tomáš Sobotka (Wien) Heike Trappe (Rostock) © Federal Institute for Population Research 2010 – All rights reserved Feiler-Fuchs-B Schreibmaschinentext Feiler-Fuchs-B Schreibmaschinentext Feiler-Fuchs-B Schreibmaschinentext Feiler-Fuchs-B Schreibmaschinentext Feiler-Fuchs-B Schreibmaschinentext Feiler-Fuchs-B Schreibmaschinentext Feiler-Fuchs-B Schreibmaschinentext Feiler-Fuchs-B Schreibmaschinentext Feiler-Fuchs-B Schreibmaschinentext Feiler-Fuchs-B Schreibmaschinentext Feiler-Fuchs-B Schreibmaschinentext Feiler-Fuchs-B Schreibmaschinentext Feiler-Fuchs-B Schreibmaschinentext Feiler-Fuchs-B Schreibmaschinentext Feiler-Fuchs-B Schreibmaschinentext Feiler-Fuchs-B Schreibmaschinentext Feiler-Fuchs-B Schreibmaschinentext Feiler-Fuchs-B Schreibmaschinentext