THE ROLE OF COMPUTER MODELS IN WARGAMES A PRACTITIONER'S VIEW Developments In Business Simulation & Experiential Learning, Volume 24, 1997 THE ROLE OF COMPUTER MODELS IN WARGAMES A PRACTITIONER’S VIEW Mark D. Frost, Booz Allen & Hamilton Mark L. Herman, Booz•Allen & Hamilton John R. Statz, Booz•Allen & Hamilton ABSTRACT Models are for keeping track of the wargame, not for making decisions. The purpose of computer models is to synthesize the decisions of all teams to illustrate the “bottom line” impact-teams should not be playing against a model nor should the model constrain their options. INTRODUCTION A wargame ensures the military field commander or the CEO, sees events he had not considered, traps and ambushes he might have fallen into. Admiral Nimitz and his staff, while all were recognized experts in naval strategy, nonetheless wargamed the World War II battles of the Pacific during the 1930s at the Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island. After the war, they said the only surprise they had not foreseen was the kamikazes. Complex, sophisticated computer models were not used in these extremely successful wargames. WHY WARGAMING There is a competitive dynamic, namely that the players (enemies, competitors, or stakeholders) are affected by each other’s actions. The market, or battlefield, reaction is partly or wholly unpredictable because of rapid change, the introduction of new technologies, or shifts in market demands- none of which could be forecast with a deterministic model. The validity of the answer will be greatly enhanced if the problem is looked at dynamically over time (e.g., several years). There are too many unknowns to be amenable to a straightforward, quantitative solution-there may be too many dimensions of the problem to consider or it is impossible to capture the interactions among all of these. Most important. wargames show what can happen in the real world. They are not academic exercises. Participants live through possible worlds, examining competitive factors that are intractable to conventional analysis and which could lead unknowingly into a fatal ambush of one’s own making. MODELING WILL NOT WORK In these situations, typical analysis-intensive modeling will not work because it will only interpret the past and suggest how the future might evolve if, indeed, there is little change from the past. Generally, this assumption is self-defeating, as the past never really repeats itself. Models cannot predict how markets will behave when faced with changing conditions. Models that use historical analysis to plot future outcomes can be dangerously deceptive when these conditions apply. Forecasts are, in the end, simply a best guess at the future, tempered by informed judgment as to how trends may play out over time. The risk here is that it is very easy to believe the future that plays into our own set of biases. Compounding this is the absence of any way of predicting when discontinuities might logically occur or what their impact might be. CATALYST FOR CHANGE In a wargame, to challenge the traditional view of “reality” you must break away from current paradigms-and computer models based on these same current, if not soon to be obsolete, paradigms. To understand how someone views the world you must stand in their shoes-in business, this includes the customer for whom a model is a weak surrogate. To achieve real strength you must focus the company’s full intellectual power on the problem and its solution. Market reaction cannot be left to a computer model based on yesterday’s product characteristics and buying criteria. To generate new ideas you need competitive interaction. Models, at best, calculate results for “today”-a model is rarely a good crystal ball and never a good storyteller. Experience changes the way you see and think. Models, however sophisticated, can increase your knowledge of the past or present, but cannot cause you 33 Developments In Business Simulation & Experiential Learning, Volume 24, 1997 to think creatively about the future. A coherent story emerges from game interactions that explains why things happen. Models don’t do that. WHAT OTHERS SAY Computer models are, of course, not all bad. Models do eliminate lengthy computations and facilitate game play and decisions. (Campion, 1995). But, models can hinder game play by introducing too much detail or allowing results- oriented decision makers to become involved in playing the model instead of the game (Oswalt, 1993). Too much detail interferes with learning objectives. As conditions change, the use of a now obsolete model becomes counterproductive. Players can come to understand a model so well that they play the model versus play the game (Rollier, 1992). As attempts are made to artificially boost model-calculated performance, the wrong lessons can easily be learned. And, a “trial and error” process of submitting decisions and getting feedback can unfortunately become the mode of play- rather than strategic thinking. Critics will fault a game for not having a theory behind it. But, if one is going to build a game around a model, then the burden falls squarely on the designer to vouch for the validity of the theory (Goodman, 1996)- today and for the future as to be played. There will always be a debate between the qualitative and quantitative focus of wargames. Game models often do not account for the qualitative differences in decision-making (Keyes and Wolfe, 1990). Instead of complex models, participants can be switched from the role of players to designers (Goodman, 1995). Phenomena are rendered explicit for review, discussions, and revision. Players then design rules to capture the essence of this phenomenon as they have come to understand it-behaving in a way that they would behave outside the context of the game. Games today often incorporate increasingly sophisticated models and problem- solving methodologies. But, a game’s real value is not in the technology (Carbonara, 1997). The real value is whether the game feels real, focuses on well defined choices, and provides a direct connection between players’ decisions and their performance in the market. REFERENCES Campion, M.C. (1995). A Historian and His Games. Simulation & Gaming, 26, 168-177. Carbonara, P. (1997). Game Over. Fast Company, 6, 128-136. Goodman, F.L. (1995).Practice in Theory. Simulation & Gaming, 26, 178-190. Keyes, B. & Wolfe, J. (1990).The Role of Management Games and Simulations in Educations and Research. The Journal of Management, 16, 307-337. Oswalt, I. (1993). Current Applications, Trends, and Organizations in U.S. Military Simulation and Gaming. Simulation & Gaming, 24, 153- 189. Rollier, B. (1992). Observations of a Corporate Facilitator. Simulation & Gaming, 23, 442-456. BIOGRAPHIES Mark Frost provides wargames to commercial clients worldwide. Booz•Allen’s innovative work in this area has been profiled in numerous business publications including Business Week and the Wall Street Journal. Mr. Frost received a B.S. degree in Business Administration from the U.S. Naval Academy and an M.S. degree in Operations Research from the Naval Postgraduate School. Bob Statz provides computer simulation and wargaming support to the United States government and many overseas governments and agencies. Mr. Statz received a B.S. degree in Engineering Mechanics from Hofstra University and a Master of Military Arts and Science (Operations Research) from the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. Mark Herman provides simulations emphasizing doctrine, force structure, policy, standardization, and strategic defense issues. Mr. Herman received a B.A. in History from the State University of New York at Stony Brook and an M.A. in Government at Georgetown University. 34 Table of Contents Volume 24, 1997 Incorporating Computer Telephony into the MIS Course A Learner Oriented Infrastructure for videoconferencing Based Distance Education Courses The Identification of Temporally Related Structural Elements of the Experiential Component of Electronic Spreadsheet Tasks Does Involvement Influence Learning from Simulation Participation? Some Relationships with Helpfulness and Performance Outcomes Musings on Business Garne Performance Evaluation Performance on a TE Simulation: What does it represent? The Business Policy Game: An International Simulation - An Assessment Tool Students in Free Enterprise as Experiential Learning The Role of Computer Models in Wargames: A Practitioner's view Using Focus Groups as a Tool to Research Learning: A Demonstration and a Discussion Using Medical Simulations to Teach Multi-Cultural Diversity Using the World Game to Internationalize International Exchange Game Community Services Needs Assessment: An Innovative Approach Introducing Students to Potential Total Quality Management Ethical Dilemmas Privacy in the Workplace: A Situational Analysis Antecedents of Learning in Simulations Demonstrating the Learning Effectiveness of Simulation: Where we are and Where we need to go The Use of Computer Simulations as a Pedagogical Aid in Teaching Management Information Systems Evaluating Simulation Learning in a Distant Learning Instructional Model Financial Engineering of Global Investments The Labor History Game: Playing with the Past Perks Participation Assessing Negotiator's Proficiency with a Negotiation role-play The Art of Negotiating Enhancing Learning and Employee Development through the Assessment of Learning Pedagogy Preferences across selected Dimensions of Culture: A Preliminary Investigation Cooperative Learning: What are we Learning? Effective Use of Mastery Based Experiential learning in a Project Course to improve skills in system analysis and Design Simulations and Learning: Can we prove a relationship? (Seminar) Predicting and Reviewing NYSE Stock Prices by use of Basic Statistical Analysis and Logic Toy Car Depreciation Exercise ABSEL as Home Community: An Interactive Exploration Service Learning: Linking Academic Study to Community Development and Business Enhancement Ability of Efficient Evaluation of Knowledge-Based Management Strategies Corporate Ethics Training Programs Modeling Attributes in Demand Functions of Computerized Business Simulations: An Extension of Teach's Gravity Flow Algorithm Expert Systems Combined with Neutral Networks: Tools to Benefit the Marketing Researcher Computer Game Design: New Directions for Intercultural Simulation Game Designers Consistency in Simulation Performance over Time and Across Simulation Games The Impact of an Artificial Market Leader on Simulation Competitor's Strategies Business Plans, Case Studies, and Total Enterprise Simulations: A Natural Co-existence An Exploration into the Non-Use of Business Simulations The Market Game: Interactive Learning Through Market Simulation Plotting Brand Trajectories with the COMPLETE PPM package: A Market Segmentation Analysis and Positioning Tool Me and Mine Inc: An Exercise in Management Theory Learning to Differentiate Leadership from Managerial Position Business Ethics Survey: A Perspective from the Retail Industry Experiential Learning in Demand Analysis for an Agricultural Commodity Marketing on the Internet: A Pedagogical Exercise College Students Need Simple Computer Simulations, Especially for International Business Courses An Analysis of Student Attitudes, Performance, and Strategies in a Simulation Competition Based on a Controlled Product-Market-Entry Game Structure The Crystal Enterprise: Application of a Non-Computerized Simulation Model in a Process of Organizational Change Threshold: A Windows-Based Behaviorally Oriented Total Enterprise Simulation Coaching Business Game Teams Using a Decision Variable Optimizer Rock and Roll is here to Stay: Enhancing Experiential Pedagogy with Musical Exercises An Example of Business Process Analysis Simulation for Customer Software Support The Use of Business Gaming in Hong Kong Academic Institutions Using the Integrative International Simulation INTOPIA Mark 2000 in a Concentrated MBA Curriculum A Group Experience as an Integrated Part of the Core Management Course Empowered Learning in the Classroom The Inter-Group Interaction: An Innovative Approach to Cooperative Learning Courses that Utilize Student Team: An Approach to enhancing their Effectiveness Thoughts about the Measurement of Learning: The Case for Guided Learning and Associated Measurement Issues Measuring Student Learning Using Business Simulations: A Theory Based Perspective On the Use of PC Fingame in an Undergraduate Finance Course How Managers get Things Done: A Virtual Soundbite Internet Experiential learning in the Principals of Marketing Classroom: A Pedagogical Approach Current Student Perceptions Relative to Business Simulations Beyond Capitalism: Designing Business Policy and Social Justice The Use of Boards of Directors to Evaluate Reports and Presentations in an Undergraduate Business Policy Course Beacon Lumber: An Experiential Introduction to Financial Accounting The Application of Organizational Motivation Principles: The Experiential Business Simulation Motus Manufacturing Avoiding a Bogey: Grading Case Discussions Scientifically Communicating Consumer Behavior II: A Modified Exercise Using Personal Consumption Journals in Condensed Courses Designing Instruments for Assessing the Effectiveness of Simulations, (Seminar) 360º Performance Feedback: Appraisal vs. Assessment The Cafeteria Approach to Managing an Academic Career: Remaining Non-Perishable while Doing Your Own Thing An Experiential Exercise Related to Person-Organization Fit and it's Consequences For Today's Dynamic and Changing World, Business Simulations need to be expanded to encompass Much Greater Complexity: A Demonstration The Incident Process: A Case in Reverse Contextually-Anchored Business Simulations The Energy Factor: Building Motivation in the Simulation Gaming Environment The Design of an Internet Game