UNTESTED HYPOTHESES: AN APPROACH TO EXPERIENTIAL LEARNING Experiential Learning Enters the Eighties, Volume 7, 1980 187 UNTESTED HYPOTHESES: AN APPROACH TO EXPERIENTIAL LEARNING Paul B. Malone III, The George Washington University ABSTRACT This paper describes a somewhat complex approach to experiential learning developed in 1976 at The National Defense University. The “untested hypothesis,” an intentionally provocative description of an issue relating to management and leadership, is used to stimulate thought and controversy. After opportunities for discussion, participants in the ‘earning process are requested to “vote” on the accuracy of the hypothesis. The “votes” are then counted and fed back to participants for further discussion, analysis, and contemplation. INTRODUCTION Active and experiential learning techniques take many forms. Most are designed to integrate into the learning process three vital components--content, experience, and feedback. This paper describes a two-phase teaching methodology which, while designed to achieve unique educational, objectives, may have utility in the examination of a variety of subjects. BACKGROUND The basic idea was generated in 1976 during the design of management-related portions of the curricula of the two colleges at the National Defense University in Washington, D.C.1 The students of the two colleges-- all highly successful and competitively selected military and civilian mid-level public sector managers and leaders--were to be intermixed for this portion of the academic program. THE CHALLENGE Curriculum planners sensed a significant challenge in developing a program which provided for learning, challenge, stimulation and the personal involvement of each student. Success in the subject at hand--management and leadership-- had been the primary selection criterion for the student body. Further, approximately 70 percent of the students possessed Masters degrees--many of these in management-related disciplines. Success of the introductory session, in particular, was viewed as critical to gaining the approval, and hence the complete involvement, of a highly professional and therefore often critical group of students. This paper focuses upon the methodology employed for that introductory session--actually two sessions. LEARNING OBJECTIVES Curriculum planners determined that an appropriate introductory subject was a review and analysis of major contemporary challenges which face Department of Defense 1 The National Defense University operates directly under the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Department of Defense. Its two colleges, The Industrial College of the Armed Forces (ICAF) and The National War College (NWC), conduct ten-month executive-level professional education programs for selected military officers and Federal Government civilians (the typical student is in his/her early 40s and has approximately 18 years of federal service). While each college has a unique mission, portions of each program--those focusing on executive-level management and leadership--are very similar. (DOD) officials and thus influence their styles of management and leadership. A variety of standard educational methodologies were considered and rejected for various reasons. After considerable debate, it was determined that such a session (or sessions) should include the following features: Open discussion of critical management/leadership related issues which Federal Government executives at high levels must recognize and address personally. Recognizing that there are few, if any, recognized “experts” in the field of management and leadership, at least a degree of involvement and input from those who teach both theory and practice. Recognizing that individual perspectives of management and leadership are, to a Large degree, based upon personal experiences, the opportunity for students to compare their viewpoints with those of their peers--to “test” their positions on various issues against the “collective wisdom” of a wide variety of particularly successful managers and leaders in the public sector. INITIAL PREPARATIONS Having achieved consensus concerning objectives, curriculum planners organized the “educational module” as indicated below: Two sessions were allocated to the subject--a two- hour auditorium session on a Friday for the combined student body; a 90-minute follow-on session on the Monday after the weekend with students organized into instructor-led 16-student seminar groups. A series of “untested hypotheses,” intentionally provocative descriptions (accurate and inaccurate) of the state of the world relating to issues confronting the 1976 Federal Government manager/leader, were developed (see Appendix I). Machine-readable response forms (see Appendix II) were designed and printed. A computer program which would tabulate, aggregate, and print responses was developed. A panel of four “experts” on the subject of executive- level management and leadership in both the public and the private sectors was identified and invited to participate in the auditorium session. Faculty members were oriented on the objectives and the methodology to be employed for the follow-on seminar session on Monday. Experiential Learning Enters the Eighties, Volume 7, 1980 188 EXECUTION The first phase of instruction was conducted in an auditorium with the faculties and student bodies of the two colleges present.3- I served as the coordinator and moderator for the session. The panel of “experts” sat at a table on the stage. As participants entered the auditorium, they were issued the machine-readable form (Appendix II), a paper copy of the same form, and a number 2 lead pencil. After introducing the “experts” and identifying the objectives and methodology of the session, I started introducing the untested hypotheses. I “played a role” supporting all hypotheses (whether or not I personally agreed with them). After the presentation of each hypothesis and supporting rationale, the “experts,” who had been provided the hypotheses several weeks earlier, were free to support, oppose, or comment on the issue at hand. Their participation was unrehearsed. Further, students and faculty alike were encouraged to cha1lenge hypotheses, ask questions or offer comments from their seats in the auditorium. After each discussion, all participants were requested to mark their machine-readable cards either “accept,” “reject,” or “undecided” regarding their estimates of the accuracy of the hypothesis. Further, they were encouraged to mark the duplicate copy for their own future reference. This process was repeated until all hypotheses were addressed. As participants exited the auditorium, they turned in their machine-readable cards. In turn, these were collected and taken to the computer room for immediate processing. Tabulations of responses (Appendix III) were printed by that afternoon (the weekend was available in the event of problems with the computer) . Faculty members responsible for seminar sessions the following Monday were briefed on participant feedback by late Friday afternoon. During the Monday seminar sessions, the tabulation of responses (Appendix III) were distributed to students (Appendix III is an abbreviated version of the tabulation provided the students.) These sessions provided students opportunities (a) to discuss the issue further, (b) to compare their own responses with those of their peers, and (c) to analyze the variations in responses among the various groups participating in the activity (military- civilian; students-faculty). REFLECTIONS ON THE METHODOLOGY Favorable Features This approach to learning included some features which contributed to educational objectives under the particular environmental conditions described. Unlike most auditorium situations, the learning process was active involving the “give and take” of open disagreement and the requirement of all participants to “vote” on controversial issues~ The experience focused on the reality of contemporary challenges to management and leadership--appropriate to the experience level of the student body--rather than principles or research results which many were familiar with through previous educational experiences. The technique intentionally provoked some emotional responses which stimulated interest and highlighted the subjective nature of management and leadership. 1The combined faculties and student bodies present included 375 individuals--285 military officers of the various uniformed services (including the Coast Guard) and 90 senior Federal Government civilians from a variety of departments and agencies. Variations on the Theme The key, and hence the unique feature of this methodology is the provocative nature of the untested hypotheses. The process described in this paper is quite complex and requires considerable preparation, coordination, and support. Far simpler approaches in smaller classroom environments with participants “voting” informally have been used and have proved effective. The technique allowed for the exploration of a wide range of problems and issues--far more diverse than possible in a typical case study or simulation. The feedback technique provided practitioners in the field of management and leadership an opportunity to compare their own responses to contemporary challenges with those of successful peers. Presumably, this feature contributed to some individual self-analysis after the formal learning experience. Problem Areas While the approach was considered to be generally successful, some problems and miscalculations were observed. In an attempt to design provocative “untested hypotheses” which would stimulate thought and discussion and generate some disagreement, some hypotheses used proved to be far too ambiguous and complex. Participants could agree with portions, but not all, of their messages. In some cases, cause and effect relationships were too tenuous. It should be noted that hypotheses designed primarily for teaching and discussion purposes are not likely to be ideal survey instruments. This fact tends to degrade the effectiveness of the feedback phase of the methodology. Eighteen hypotheses were introduced during the initial session. This proved to be too many. Toward the end of the session, discussion tended to become hurried and perfunctory as time passed and the novelty of the technique wore off. In retrospect, the examination of ten to twelve of the most relevant hypotheses would have proved more productive. CONCLUSION The teaching methodology described in this paper provided for an effective introduction to a complex subject area. Considering the preparation and resources required, its application should be reserved for special learning situations. However, carefully orchestrated, it offers an opportunity to incorporate content, experience and feedback into the ‘earning process while stimulating the student’s intellectual and emotional responses. APPENDIX I UNTESTED HYPOTHESES CONTEMPORARY MANAGEMENT AND LEADERSHIP Number 1 The day of the “successful dirty dog” who willfully abuses subordinates in order to achieve his own personal objectives is dying fast. The ability of subordinates to retaliate against perceived injustices is increasing rapidly. In order to survive, successful modern leaders must be able to appeal to and develop loyal followers within their organizations who will provide support when the chips are down. Experiential Learning Enters the Eighties, Volume 7, 1980 189 Number 2 The manager/leader within the Department of Defense who demands “a day’s work for a day’s pay” from every individual in his organization has set an unrealistic goal. Bureaucracies, by their very nature, allow for and protect a high degree of malingering, incompetence, and waste. The best the manager/leader can do is to accept the situation and attempt to limit its effect by dealing aggressively with a few extraordinary cases. Number 3 Contemporary leaders are proving to be unwilling or unable to make tough decisions which affect adversely the welfare of their subordinates. The “veto power” of internal interest groups within organizations is too strong. For tins reason, major unpopular decisions are possible only under conditions of genuine, mutually- perceived crisis or by direction of a higher authority. Number 4 The challenge of effective leadership is tougher than ever before in the past. Whereas the increasing capabilities of subordinates (education, sophistication, etc.) contribute to opportunities for organizations of unsurpassed quality, the ability of mortal humans to harness these complex capabilities is limited to a relative few. For this reason, opportunities to lead/command large numbers of subordinates should be restricted to an elite group of “natural” leaders. Number 5 Successful contemporary leaders tend to be less individualistic than those in the past. The man/woman with a blemishless past tends to be selected for high positions while those who have sown a few wild oats or have demonstrated immoderate behavior are identified as “high risk’ cases and are selected out. As a result, many individuals with great potentia1 leadership are purged from the system while those who survive tend to be colorless conformists who lack the charismatic appeal typical of General Patton of World War II. Number 6 The leader who believes firmly that ‘what was good enough for people ten years (months/weeks/days) ago is good enough for them now” is headed for trouble. Whereas the basic values of people are comparatively static, their aspirations and expectations have been stimulated co the degree that they are not satisfied with the conditions and rewards of the past--even the very recent past. Number 7 The leader who allows or encourages special attention to his/her personal prestige, comfort, convenience or social status exposes himself to criticism which can ruin him/her. Future leaders will increasingly attempt to reduce or conceal the distinctions between their lives and the lives of their subordinates. Number 8 The leader who is unable to identify informal groups within the organization and to anticipate their attitudes, needs and values leads a precarious existence. Many of these informal groups should be given opportunities to attain recognized formal status and to participate in decision making affecting their members. Leaders should continually consider changing the existing formal organization to reflect the structures of the informal organization. Number 9 The day of one-man leadership is dead in all but the most primitive organizations. One person, no matter how talented, cannot know enough to make all decisions. He/she must accept critical information from specialized experts. He/she must be aware of environmental issues only remotely associated with his primary activity. The trend will continue. Increasingly, major decisions will assume committee-like characteristics containing more hedging and less clarity. Number 10 The only significant difference betwen men and women is physical. For this reason, there should be little distinction between leadership styles which prove effective for either sex~ Within five years there will be absolutely no distinction. Number 11 Current trends toward increased social justice, permissiveness, legal safeguards, and administrative complexity have resulted in the inability of leaders to punish serious offenders with equity and economy. For this reason, leaders should go to great effort to identify true problem cases early and to eliminate these individuals from organizations with great dispatch. Number 12 While the average American is a comparatively talented individual, due to the affluence of a post-industrial society, he/she is spoiled, impatient and physically soft. For this reason, America’s war fighting capabilities should focus on high-level technology rather than modes of combat which rely on ruggedness and determination under conditions of prolonged discomfort, deprivation, and danger. Number 13 America is going through a period of moral rehabilitation. For this reason, managers and leaders with high degrees of tolerance for unethical and immoral conduct will be purged from organizations in increasing numbers. This trend will continue for a considerable period of time. Number 14 Unquestioned association of experience, tenure, prestige, rank, authority, and compensation is counterproductive. The need for specialization, raw knowledge, critical skills, and essential services will create great distortions. Subordinates will earn more than superiors; individuals in selected low-skill jobs will earn disproportionately high pay. Leaders must be sensitive to the impact of such trends and develop techniques which will reinforce egos, reduce anxieties, and satisfy subordinates while responding to changing manpower requirements. Number 15 Prolonged periods of peace inevitably resu1t in extraordinary demands for individual accountability within the Department of Defense. For this reason, the high- level manager/leader should pay particular attention to the quality of staff advice available to him in the following areas: Financial Management, Legal, Information Technology. Experiential Learning Enters the Eighties, Volume 7, 1980 190 Number 16 Management by objectives is going to be a way of life in all large organizations. Meaningful objectives require quantification. Objectives which are not amenable to quantification will become irrelevant. Number 17 The executive-level leader or manager who does not understand at least the basic concepts and logic of computer technology will become a captive of skilled technicians and staff officers who will be capable of usurping his/her power. Number 18 Modern attitudes toward open communications and modern communications technology have greatly complicated the task of keeping secrets within organizations. Since compromise of most sensitive information (other than classified) is inevitable, leaders/managers will be forced to be extremely candid and receptive to critical comment. Experiential Learning Enters the Eighties, Volume 7, 1980 191 Table of Contents Volume 7, 1980 Symbol Recognition and Correlation for Evaluating Decision Making in Computer Aided Business Simulations Polanal: An Experiential Approach to Decision Support The Use of Time Contracts in Formal Education Indexing Simulation Model Response for Gaming Flexibility Moving Toward A Theory of the Use of Simulation Games and Experiential Exercises Use of Simulation Administration to Achieve Pedagogical Objectives Experiential Learning on the Job - A Business Internship Program Toward the Ultimate Experiential Exercise A Learning Through Managing Program Workshop Using Experiential Materials in Industry Training Sponsored Experiential Learning - An Opportunity Problems and Pitfalls of Externally Sponsored Field Research Projects Viewed form an Experiential Learning Perspective A Modular Approach to Experiential Learning: Classroom & Consulting Using Simulation & Experiential Learning In Industrial Settings Terminations: An Experiential Review Agenda Items -- Board of Supervisors' Meeting - Town of Jori The Objective-Setting Interview in MBO: An Experiential Approach The All-Star World Series Team Exercise: an Experiential Learning Exercise Dealing with Various Organizational Behavior Issues Progress Report on global, A Rich Multinational Gaming Environment Computer Simulation: A Tool to Teach Queuing Theory New Technology for Business Games Technological Frontiers in Computer Simulations for Business Education Simulating the Product Life Cycle on Interactive Terminals On Compensatory Demand Functions in Marketing Simulations The Use of Games at Different Levels in a Single Marketing Course to Increase Game Participation Sun Airlines: A Heterogeneous Consumer demand exercise Incorporating a Group Selection Test An Organization Development Approach to Teaching Organization Behavior CBID: Cognitive, Behavioral, and Interpersonal Development - A Skill Development/Social Learning Approach to Management Development Using a Live Case Via Video Tape A Town and gown Approach Development of Student Generated Cases Using Computerized Text Editing and Database Technology Interdisciplinary Approached to Problems in Utilizing Experiential Techniques To Use or Not To Use Experiential Techniques, That's is the Question Forming Participant Teams in Simulation Gaming The Problems of Motivating Students and Clients in Live-Case Projects Problems of Teaching Leadership Skills Through Experiential Techniques Conflict Style Measurement: Antecedent to Change - A Proposal for an Experiential Exercise Demonstration Fundamentals of Simulation for Newcomers An M.B.A. Orientation Simulation for Managing Time and the Areas of One's Life SimNet Workshop: The International Simulation Network Demonstrates Three New Business Games The Use of a Simulation Model in the Planning and Evaluation of Commercial Bank Operations Probability Assessment and Performance in Business Game Simulations WageSim: A Wage and Salary Administration Simulation Grading as a Teaching and Feedback Mechanism: Modifying Student's Self-Perceptions of Performance Can Business Games Effectively Teach Business Concepts? Development of Multiple Value Orientations in Conflict Resolution Behavior: An Experiential Teaching Paradigm in Labor-Management Relations Course Designing a Competency-Based Peer Assessment Scale for the Evaluation fo Teaching in Higher Education A Method for Evaluating Information for the Equipment Replacement Decision: An Application of Monte Carlo Simulation Simulation: A Method of Appraising Communication Networks in Managerial Decision Making An Evaluation of In-Class Student Involvement Evaluation of the SBI Program from an Experiential Viewpoint: Focus on the Student Differential Predictors of Academic Performance for White and Non-White Samples The Manager's Dilemma: An Unobtrusive Measure of the managerial Sex-Role Stereotype Are Computer Simulations Sexist? The Effect of Group Size on Attitudes Toward the Simulation Associations Between Individual Cognitive Processing Variables and Business Game Performance and Play Students' Perceptions on Managerial Functions After Exposure to Either the Case Method or a Simulation What Business Students Learn from Finance Simulations Attitude Toward Experiential Exercises, The Student-Teacher Relationship, Student Psychological Types, and Performance An Example of How to Design a Research-Based and Classroom-Effective Organizational behavior Exercise Some Issues in Game Design Untested Hypotheses: An Approach to Experiential Learning Evaluation of Simulation Games: A Critical Look at Past Efforts and Future Needs Is Self-Perception Predictable? - Some Laboratory Results An Exercise in Conflict-Handling Behavior The Relationship Between Group Size and the Learning Curve Effect in a Gaming Environment Learning About Organizational Management Through Organizational Management: Closing the Gap Strategies, Managerial Approaches, and Decision Making in a General Management Simulation A Comparison and Evaluation of Similar and Dissimilar Group Scenarios Generated Using Manual Simulation Games Weaknesses of Research Methods in Experiential and Simulation Studies