BACK FROM THE FUTURE: AN ABSEL “MERLIN” EXERCISE FOR THE YEAR 2005 Developments in Business Simulation and Experiential Learning, Volume 26, 1999 BACK FROM THE FUTURE: AN ABSEL “MERLIN” EXERCISE FOR THE YEAR 2005 Alan L. Patz, University of Southern California J. Bernard Keys, Georgia Southern University Hugh M. Cannon, Wayne State University ABSTRACT In preparation for ABSEL’s 25th anniversary meeting, we have involved a number of our sen- ior members in a futuristic “Merlin” exercise. The exercise is derived from T. S. White’s no- tion that Merlin was living his life from the fu- ture backward. The exercise asks participants to imagine that they are living backward like Mer- lin, describing what they would say back in the year 2005. This paper describes the results of this exercise. INTRODUCTION Remember Merlin, from T. S. White’s The Once and Future King? He had an uncanny ability to know the future. When asked about this insight, Merlin explained: How did I know to set breakfast for two?…Now ordinary people are bornfor- wards in time, if you understand what I mean, and nearly everything in the world goes forward too. This makes it quite easy for ordinary people to live…but unfortu- nately I was born at the wrong end of time, and have to live backward from in front, while surrounded by a lot of people living forward from behind. As it turns out, Merlin is not alone in his ap- proach. Nor is it really unfortunate. Great ath- letes and managers alike owe much of their greatness to the Merlinesque qualities. Wayne Gretsky, the great hockey player, explained the principle when asked about the key to his suc- cess: “When everyone else on the ice is trying to get to where the puck is, I try to get to where the puck is going to be.” In an effort to infuse a bit of Merlin into ABSEL’s planning, several of our senior col- leagues have thought backwards from the year 2005, and they have constructed a description of our organization that is surprisingly uniform in its major features. In addition, minor differences are not contradictions. They simply focus on issues considered to be important in the overall framework. Therefore, the following discussion is organized in that fashion—major features and other important issues. METHOD We sent the Merlin survey to ABSEL Fellows, Board members, and officers in order to get in- put from members who had both exposure and historical perspective on ABSEL’s nature and development. The instructions were as follows: 1. Use e-mail designated to the network from which this message came. 2. Place yourself and your thinking in the year 2005. ABSEL has become the premier or- ganization in the world for teaching/learning research in business and related disciplines. Interested parties from around the world are contacting ABSEL and coming to meetings to view ABSEL’s activities. Without any concern for restraints or difficulties of ob- taining such a stance, describe what ABSEL is like for you in this successful 2005 year. Do not write any limitations. For example, do not write what ABSEL should not be, or what it should not do. Simply write the way you see it as successful in 2005. (Try for a two-page description.) Build pictures, articu- late stories, and if you wish engage in dia- logue with other ABSEL members by e-mail or telephone. 3. Send an e-mail message with your one to three pages responding to the preceding stimulus statement. 2 Developments in Business Simulation and Experiential Learning, Volume 26, 1999 4. In order to participate in this portion of futur- istic planning, please send an immediate re- sponse indicating your intention. Then send your response within one month. 5. On future rounds we will engage in a walk backward in our thinking to describe how we think ABSEL arrived at this new successful position. (Continue to presume that ABSEL did succeed to develop a highly successful reputation. Do not entertain any thought of failure or a different outcome.) We will en- gage in the “Walk Back Together” to dis- cover milestones and hurdles that have been overcome in the future. Once we have identi- fied milestones, if time permits, we will en- gage in another round to identify change elements necessary for ABSEL to reach the Merlin determined future. 6. We will proceed with the Merlin exercise regardless of the number of persons partici- pating. Keep in mind that this exercise is not meant to be a consensus about the future, a Delphi estimate of the future, or a democratic decision about what ABSEL should be. It is a creative exercise to explore opportunities and possibilities—no more. In fact, seven Fellows and two directors re- sponded. The current total of Fellows, directors, and officers is 32. So, what follows is from a 28% sample. WHAT WE LEARNED A major point of agreement among Merlin par- ticipants was that ABSEL’s championing of pedagogical research would position it on the forefront of academic excellence by the year 2005. There are two basic reasons for this. ABSEL and the Emerging Importance of Pedagogical Research First, the ABSEL approach will prove to be more effective than conventional research and teaching. As one Merlinite put it, “…our non- ABSEL colleagues will finally have to admit that pedagogical research, using simulations and experiential exercises, is far more important that the effete efforts that we now see published in our main academic and popular journals. The reason is simple. Pedagogical research is aimed at producing results—not at advancing the cur- rent fashionable and almost always fleeting no- tions of an elite at a local university or editorial staff of a widely distributed journal. Moreover, the production of results in academic and actual business circumstances requires a far greater understanding of human information processing and decision making, group and organizational dynamics, and market forces than we now have available in our leading textbooks. As the fa- mous psychologist, Kurt Lewin, noted many years ago, ‘If you want to understand some- thing, try to change it.’” Our interpretation may be less confrontational, but no less damning, for the conventional aca- demic approach. The problem grows from an educational paradox. On one hand, the tradi- tional academic approach emphasizes the learn- ing of theory. But theory consists of generaliza- tions that are not useful without a knowledge of how they apply to varied reality of specific business situations. On the other hand, some educators emphasize knowledge of applica- tions—how problems are solved in specific business situations. But the fact that each situa- tion is different means the knowledge cannot be generalized, and students have trouble adapting to a changing environment. The resolution of the paradox comes from a knowledge of how students learn. For instance, using the framework of Bloom’s educational taxonomy, both theory and applications repre- sent “low-level” learning. That is, teachers teach and students learn them as facts or patterns and general concepts. To use them, students need to develop higher level thinking skills, such as ap- plication, analysis, synthesis, and evaluation. The real key to successful education, then, is to develop these higher level skills. They cannot be taught; students have to learn them. In fact, suc- 3 Developments in Business Simulation and Experiential Learning, Volume 26, 1999 cessful students learn them on their own. But, unfortunately, this often comes as an accidental by-product of the education process. ABSEL’s emphasis on experiential learning addresses them directly. The second factor contributing to ABSEL’s as- cendancy is that education trends are favorable. As one contributor noted, “the year is 2005 and higher education has finally come to heel behind the other sectors of society pushing for in- creased productivity and effectiveness.” An- other notes, as a result of this increased institu- tional emphasis on teaching…, faculties spend much more time discussing their class struc- tures. The implication, of course, is that ABSEL is uniquely qualified to address these trends, and the world will look to ABSEL (along with ISAGA, JASAG, and NASAGA) for guidance. ABSEL’s Role in an Emerging Global Edu- cational Environment To quote another contributor, “the 2005 picture of ABSEL is as the premier organization on the globe for teaching/learning research in business and related disciplines with: 1. A headquarters with full-time and part-time staff 2. Digital archives of writings on pedagogical issues, research, etc. 3. Periodic workshops on experiential and simulation pedagogy. 4. Major experiential and simulation journals 5. Special interest groups (SIGs) on topical in- terest/expertise areaa 6. Competitive funding for research and devel- opment 7. Training programs for interested col- leges/departments/institutions/companies 8. Annual global meetings (in Hong Kong, Sydney, Paris, Moscow, etc.) 9. Enhanced practitioner/academic interaction and a considerable presence on the internet along with an internship program for teachers who want to work with master teachers for a semester or term.” Again, these global comments were echoed by another who states that ABSEL is: 1. Linked with other simulation/experiential oriented organizations around the world 2. Sufficiently funded so that is could sponsor business internships for its members 3. Fully funded to provide training sessions for future generations of simulation, gaming, and experiential exercise developers 4. Recognized for its contributions to the educa- tion of future business leaders 5. Beneficial to its members regarding merit and promotion at their places of employment. In addition, strategic alliances and joint ventures are part of ABSEL 2005.These relationships go beyond those already established with ISAGA, JASAG, and NASAGA to include societies, for example, in Australia, Brazil, Germany, and New Zealand. Two benefits of this international thrust are paramount. First, as stated by one Merliner, ABSEL’s growth and exposure will be derived from the interactive operation of world-wide intercollegiate games scored completely by web sites and from a new conference hosted in Europe every year. The new conference, WABSAL (World Association for Business Simulation and Active Learning) has supported ABSEL and brought many Europeans and Asians to the ABSEL stateside meetings. Second, international growth and exposure will allow the development of ABSEL-CO, a for profit company. “This is an organization mod- eled after the Harvard case writing and case publishing organization. It is one in which all microworlds, simuworlds, and research articles submitted to ABSEL are copyrighted by ABSEL, put on a web catalogue, sold world- wide, and within which royalties are paid on the bases of revenue generated by each piece.” How We Got From Here to There: 4 Developments in Business Simulation and Experiential Learning, Volume 26, 1999 ABSEL’s Rise to Greatness The Merlin retrospective—one view at least— mapped out a number of specific components in ABSEL’s ascendancy. They begin with the pre- vious quote that, “the year is 2005, and high education has finally come to heel behind the other sectors of society pushing for increased productivity and effectiveness.” In order to un- derstand what this means, compare the kinds of productivity oriented proposals we are seeing today with the ABSEL approach our Merlins saw in the year 2005. The predominant models in 1998 called for mass lectures, video courses, and so forth— achieving productivity by placing education in the hands of educational superstars who would provide education through the mass media. However, this created a lock step and teacher centered system that gave the illusion of learn- ing. But it tended to foster passive responses on the part of students. Furthermore, it did not deal well with the varied needs of learners. This was especially problematic in the face of an increas- ingly tumultuous environment that put a pre- mium on proactive, creative and self-directed managers. ABSEL’s alternative strategy was to create a model student centered education, where stu- dents, rather than teachers, drove the educa- tional process. The key to productivity was to provide tools and educational models that place more of the learning burden on the students themselves. Getting students more involved in the education process leveraged the efforts of educators, enabling them to focus on issues of educational design and the development of self- study tools. More important, the student cen- tered approach freed time for teaching through experiential exercises in which their role is to help students recognize the links between their educational experience and the underlying prin- ciples they have learned on their own. The adoption of this second strategy launched ABSEL into a position of global prominence. As the premier organization for promoting the development and dissemination of simulations and experiential exercises in the sector of man- agement education, it was in a natural position to address emerging education needs. (See Fig- ure 1). Its success has grown out of its contribu- tions in three areas: products, principles, and research consultation. FIGURE 1 5 Products ABSEL AND THE GLOBAL SHIFT IN EDUCATIONAL STRATEGY Teacher-Centered Learning Systems Student-Centered Learning Systems ABSEL Increased efficiency and effectiveness through student involvement • Products • Principles • Research/Consultation Environmental pressures for increased productivity and effectiveness While ABSEL members remained active in de- veloping a broad range of educational designs, they pioneered the marriage of educationally oriented simulation and experiential learning research with modern recreational game tech- nology to develop contextually anchored games—educational games that embed man- agement decision in multimedia representations of actual working situations. (See Figure 2). The effect was to create highly motivational learning environments, or laboratories, in which students gain artificial experience which can be used as the basis for understanding how management principles can be applied in practice. Through the debriefing process, students are then pre- pared to recognize the principles governing their laboratory experience and apply it I actual man- agement settings. The benefits of debriefing can be included in recreational games as well, through help screens or embedded strategic dialog. And even without this, the gaming experience can still increase the general level of management understanding in the population, independent of formal educa- tional applications. However, perhaps the great- Developments in Business Simulation and Experiential Learning, Volume 26, 1999 involving the kinds of people and criteria that FIGURE 2 est contribution of ABSEL’s involvement in the recreational game market was to bring greater financial resources to the problem by evoking economies of scale Principles One of the key elements in ABSEL’s ascen- dancy was the pioneering work its members have done in the development of vertical theory. (See Figure 3. Vertical theory refers to the prin- ciples linking basic management theories with their practical applications. One of the popular criticisms of modern business education is the assertion “that may be OK in theory, but not in p a w th sp ti tr th in b actually would be used in a real company. THE EMERGENCE OF “CONTEXTUALLY- ANCHORED GAMES” Areas of Strategic Application Contextually-Anchored Gaming Laboratory Contextual Modeling Experiential Learning Theoretical analysis Commercial gaming technology Debriefing Recreational Applications Financial incentives through economies of scale The critical element in vertical theory is the de- velopment of filters through which extraneous facts are eliminated. Or through which the ap- plication of an established theory is modified by situational constraints. As noted earlier, the ma- jor educational contribution of ABSEL’s ap- proach is the development of the higher level thinking skills students need to make practical management decision. Research and Consultation We have combined research and consultation, because in the area of contextual gaming, the two involve similar processes. These are por- trayed in Exhibit 4. Apply PrinciplesDebriefContextual Modeling FIGURE 4 THE ABSEL PARADIGM FOR RESEARCH AND CONSULTATION Extract Principles General Principles Evaluate Results FIGURE 3 ractice.” To develop an effective contextually nchored game, ABSEL developers link theory ith credible management situation, modeling e way managers would actually have to re- ond if the theory is valid. Whereas conven- onal games call for decisions in abstract (ma- ix) form, contextually anchored games embed e decision in an actual decision situation. For stance, a pricing or advertising decision would e made in the context of a simulated meeting, THE NATURE OF “VERTICAL THEORY” Theoretical Principles Contextually-Anchored Decision Situations Contextual Modeling Vertical Theory Situational Constraints+ 6 Effective Business Practice In the quest for vertical theory, ABSELers have pioneered a variant of the classic action research paradigm developed by behavioral scientists. Researchers learn by observing the effect of their interventions on the quality of management decisions. In the ABSELian application, they begin by conducting in depth studies of actual management situations to determine the under- lying principles behind how decisions are actu- ally made. They then model these decisions in light of both theory and situational constraints, as portrayed in Figure 3. Next, researchers seek to convey these principles to students by admin- istering the contextual simulation and debrief- ing. Having learned from the experience, stu- dents attempt to apply what they have learned. Researchers evaluate their success, revise their Developments in Business Simulation and Experiential Learning, Volume 26, 1999 theory where appropriate, adjust their model, and continue the cycle. ABSELute IMPLICATIONS One of the premises of the Merlin exercise was that participants should not worry about the fea- sibility of the futuristic vision. Our results, then, provide insights into what ABSEL might be- come, not what it is. The implications, then, are for us to mobilize around the vision the Merlins have created. 7 Table of Contents Volume 26, 1999 ABSEL's Historical Research Interests Back From the Future: An ABSEL Merlin Exercise for the Year 2005 The Contributions of ABSEL During the 1980's ABSEL's Contributions to Experiential Exercises in the 90's ABSEL's Contributions to Experiential learning/Experiential Exercises: The Decade of the 1970's Business Simulations - Algorithms and Model Enhancements: A 25 year Review A Study of the ETS General Field Test as an AACSB Assessment Tool and the Impact of Experiential Exercises and Simulation on Learning A Framework for Assessing the Competencies Reflected in Simulation Performance Developing A Learning Culture: Assessing Changes in Student Performance and Perception Financial Simulation Using Distributed Computing Technology Analyzing Managers' Judgements and Decisions with an Educational Business Simulation Understanding Your Business through Home-Made Simulator Development An Examination of a Reanalysis of the Impact of a Market Leader on Simulation Competitors' Strategies Applying Shocks to TE Simulations: A Demonstration Increasing Efficiency of Management Skill Assessment A Testbank for Measuring Total Enterprise Simulation Learning Developing Leadership Skills - Video Live! LEADSIMM: Collaborative Leadership Development for the Knowledge Society A Team Approach to Producing Multi-Media Laptop and Video Formatted Presentation Tinkertoys Revisited: Exploring Trust Based Relationships Overall Dominance in Total Enterprise Simulation Performance Success or Bankruptcy: The Relationship between Personal and Goal Orientation and Simulation Performance Assessing the Effects of Feedback: Muti-method and Muti-directions in Multi-pedagogical Courses The Missing Ingredients in Experiential Learning Purpose and Learning Benefits of Business Simulations: A Design and Development Perspective Building Capabilities for Change through Laboratory Simulations Modeling Innovation as a Process of Design in Educational Business Simulation The Need to Measurer variance in Experiential Learning and a New Statistic to do so Assessing Effectiveness of an Experiential Oriented Course Over Time Developing Participant Satisfaction Models of Experiential Exercises in Business Education Perceptions of Learning in TE Simulations Students' View on the Use of Business Gaming in Hong Kong Management Gaming's Lost Opportunity: Meditations about the Russian Experience and Prospects for the Future Unanticipated Enhancements in the Business Strategy and Policy Game when Running in Windows 95 Using a Business Game to Demonstrate Broad Business Concepts A New Model for Business Courses (Getting the Student Connected) Seeing the Forest and the Trees: Integrating Knowledge Using Large Scale Simulations in Capstone Business Strategy Classes Is It Here To Stay? A Roundtable Discussion of the Inter-Group Interaction Interactive Tools Used in Applying Financial Concepts Strengthening Essential Skills through a Finance Exercise: Calculation of Beta A Model of Currency Exchange Rates Understanding Currency Exchange Rates: A three-part Exercise Student Experiences in the World Intercollegiate Business Game Competition Student Experiences in the International-Collegiate Business Policy Game Competition Using Boards of Directors in Simulation Environments: Comments From Board Members Sharing Best Practices: Teaching Smarter, Not Harder Star Power: A Simulation for Understanding Power and Empowerment The Marketing Game: A Marketing Principles Simulation Alexander Islands: GSSM Tiny Business Simulator on the WWW Putting Strategy into Strategic Business Games Industry Analysis, Porter's Five Forces Model and Strategic Group Maps in the Business Strategy Game Simulation The Use of Concept Mapping to Improve Student Performance and Understanding of Strategic Management Concepts: A Comparison of Techniques Transformational thinking in the Organizational Behavior Course: The Use of Metaphor as an Assessment Tool Creation of a Virtual Learning Community for the Global Virtual Enterprise Project Inter Institutional use of Educational Resources: Joint Use of Management Simulation Games Business Insights: Theory and Practice with the Aid of a Business Simulation Progress: An Experiential Exercise in Development Marketing The ABC's of teaching the Theory of Constraints to Undergraduate Business Students Demonstrating Principles of Organizational Purchasing Behavior through an Experiential Exercise The Virtual Manager: A Different Simulation for Managing Complexity When the Rules are changing and Chaos Breeds Innovation: Recapturing the Value of Constructive Thinking and Play in Simulation Training The Pitfalls, and Potential, of Actual Events as Problem Drivers Using Business Games to teach Environmental Awareness and Green Management: The International Experience with the ENSIM Game A Review of my ABSEL-Related Work Simulation of Government: A Workshop Using GEO Creating Internet-Based Games Using Perl and JavaScript Who's on First? Exploring the Concepts of Problem-Based Learning, Experiential Learning, and Lifelong Learning Students Learn Customer Service and Selling while Conducting Research So You Want to Run an NFL Football Team–An Honors Interdisciplinary Project Supervised Internship: The Employer's Perspective Using Computer Assisted Simulation to Teach International Business Strategy: A Case of the Multinational Management Game (MMG) Multi-Cultural Experiential Learning: A Computer Simulation in China An Appreciative Stance on Diversity as We Move into the 21st Century: A Timeline Exercise to Identify Key Experiences in Good Work Relationships between Black and White Peers A Day in the Life of an Interactive, Real Time, and Internet Delivered Course: A Demonstration Comparing Internet Search Engines: An Experiential Learning Exercise Total Enterprise Simulations and the Internet: Assessing Student Perceptions and Preferences Teaching Accounting Information Systems in a Practicum Format Providing Experiential Learning in Accounting through a Field Study Payroll Project A Spreadsheet Based Business Simulation Game Computer-Behavioral Simulations Training for Project Managers Simulation Scenarios - Rationale and Illustration