id	sid	tid	token	lemma	pos
dem-4198	1	1	microsoft	microsoft	PROPN
dem-4198	1	2	word	word	NOUN
dem-4198	1	3	00_tresc.docx	00_tresc.docx	PRON
dem-4198	1	4	dynamic	dynamic	ADJ
dem-4198	1	5	econometric	econometric	ADJ
dem-4198	1	6	models	model	NOUN
dem-4198	1	7	vol	vol	NOUN
dem-4198	1	8	.	.	PROPN
dem-4198	1	9	10	10	NUM
dem-4198	1	10	–	–	PUNCT
dem-4198	1	11	nicolaus	nicolaus	PROPN
dem-4198	1	12	copernicus	copernicus	PROPN
dem-4198	1	13	university	university	PROPN
dem-4198	1	14	–	–	PUNCT
dem-4198	1	15	toruń	toruń	NOUN
dem-4198	1	16	–	–	PUNCT
dem-4198	1	17	2010	2010	NUM
dem-4198	1	18	jacek	jacek	PROPN
dem-4198	1	19	kwiatkowski	kwiatkowski	PROPN
dem-4198	1	20	nicholas	nicholas	PROPN
dem-4198	1	21	copernicus	copernicus	PROPN
dem-4198	1	22	university	university	PROPN
dem-4198	1	23	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	1	24	toruń	toruń	NOUN
dem-4198	1	25	unobserved	unobserved	ADJ
dem-4198	1	26	component	component	NOUN
dem-4198	1	27	model	model	NOUN
dem-4198	1	28	for	for	ADP
dem-4198	1	29	forecasting	forecast	VERB
dem-4198	1	30	polish	polish	NOUN
dem-4198	1	31	inflation†	inflation†	VERB
dem-4198	1	32	a	a	DET
dem-4198	1	33	b	b	PROPN
dem-4198	1	34	s	s	ADP
dem-4198	1	35	t	t	PROPN
dem-4198	1	36	r	r	NOUN
dem-4198	1	37	a	a	DET
dem-4198	1	38	c	c	NOUN
dem-4198	1	39	t.	t.	NOUN
dem-4198	1	40	this	this	DET
dem-4198	1	41	paper	paper	NOUN
dem-4198	1	42	aims	aim	VERB
dem-4198	1	43	to	to	PART
dem-4198	1	44	use	use	VERB
dem-4198	1	45	the	the	DET
dem-4198	1	46	local	local	ADJ
dem-4198	1	47	level	level	NOUN
dem-4198	1	48	models	model	NOUN
dem-4198	1	49	with	with	ADP
dem-4198	1	50	garch	garch	NOUN
dem-4198	1	51	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	1	52	sv	sv	PROPN
dem-4198	1	53	errors	error	NOUN
dem-4198	1	54	to	to	PART
dem-4198	1	55	predict	predict	VERB
dem-4198	1	56	polish	polish	ADJ
dem-4198	1	57	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	1	58	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	2	1	the	the	DET
dem-4198	2	2	series	series	NOUN
dem-4198	2	3	to	to	PART
dem-4198	2	4	be	be	AUX
dem-4198	2	5	forecast	forecast	VERB
dem-4198	2	6	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	2	7	measured	measure	VERB
dem-4198	2	8	monthly	monthly	ADV
dem-4198	2	9	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	2	10	is	be	AUX
dem-4198	2	11	consumer	consumer	NOUN
dem-4198	2	12	price	price	NOUN
dem-4198	2	13	index	index	NOUN
dem-4198	2	14	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	2	15	cpi	cpi	PROPN
dem-4198	2	16	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	2	17	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	2	18	poland	poland	PROPN
dem-4198	2	19	during	during	ADP
dem-4198	2	20	1992	1992	NUM
dem-4198	2	21	-	-	SYM
dem-4198	2	22	2008	2008	NUM
dem-4198	2	23	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	3	1	we	we	PRON
dem-4198	3	2	selected	select	VERB
dem-4198	3	3	three	three	NUM
dem-4198	3	4	forecasting	forecasting	NOUN
dem-4198	3	5	models	model	NOUN
dem-4198	3	6	i.e.	i.e.	X
dem-4198	3	7	ll	ll	NOUN
dem-4198	3	8	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	3	9	garch(1,1	garch(1,1	NOUN
dem-4198	3	10	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	3	11	with	with	ADP
dem-4198	3	12	normal	normal	ADJ
dem-4198	3	13	or	or	CCONJ
dem-4198	3	14	student	student	NOUN
dem-4198	3	15	errors	error	NOUN
dem-4198	3	16	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	3	17	ll	ll	NOUN
dem-4198	3	18	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	3	19	sv	sv	NOUN
dem-4198	3	20	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	4	1	a	a	DET
dem-4198	4	2	simple	simple	ADJ
dem-4198	4	3	ar(2)-sv	ar(2)-sv	NOUN
dem-4198	4	4	model	model	NOUN
dem-4198	4	5	is	be	AUX
dem-4198	4	6	used	use	VERB
dem-4198	4	7	as	as	ADP
dem-4198	4	8	a	a	DET
dem-4198	4	9	benchmark	benchmark	NOUN
dem-4198	4	10	to	to	PART
dem-4198	4	11	assess	assess	VERB
dem-4198	4	12	the	the	DET
dem-4198	4	13	accuracy	accuracy	NOUN
dem-4198	4	14	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	4	15	prediction	prediction	NOUN
dem-4198	4	16	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	5	1	the	the	DET
dem-4198	5	2	presented	present	VERB
dem-4198	5	3	results	result	NOUN
dem-4198	5	4	indicate	indicate	VERB
dem-4198	5	5	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	5	6	that	that	SCONJ
dem-4198	5	7	there	there	PRON
dem-4198	5	8	is	be	VERB
dem-4198	5	9	no	no	DET
dem-4198	5	10	clear	clear	ADJ
dem-4198	5	11	advantage	advantage	NOUN
dem-4198	5	12	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	5	13	ll	ll	NOUN
dem-4198	5	14	models	model	NOUN
dem-4198	5	15	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	5	16	forecasting	forecast	VERB
dem-4198	5	17	polish	polish	ADJ
dem-4198	5	18	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	5	19	over	over	ADP
dem-4198	5	20	standard	standard	ADJ
dem-4198	5	21	ar(2)-sv	ar(2)-sv	PROPN
dem-4198	5	22	model	model	NOUN
dem-4198	5	23	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	5	24	although	although	SCONJ
dem-4198	5	25	all	all	DET
dem-4198	5	26	the	the	DET
dem-4198	5	27	models	model	NOUN
dem-4198	5	28	give	give	VERB
dem-4198	5	29	satisfactory	satisfactory	ADJ
dem-4198	5	30	results	result	NOUN
dem-4198	5	31	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	6	1	k	k	X
dem-4198	6	2	e	e	PROPN
dem-4198	6	3	y	y	PROPN
dem-4198	6	4	w	w	NOUN
dem-4198	6	5	o	o	NOUN
dem-4198	6	6	r	r	NOUN
dem-4198	6	7	d	d	NOUN
dem-4198	6	8	s	s	X
dem-4198	6	9	:	:	PUNCT
dem-4198	6	10	local	local	ADJ
dem-4198	6	11	level	level	NOUN
dem-4198	6	12	model	model	NOUN
dem-4198	6	13	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	6	14	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	6	15	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	6	16	conditional	conditional	ADJ
dem-4198	6	17	heteroscedasticity	heteroscedasticity	NOUN
dem-4198	6	18	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	7	1	1	1	X
dem-4198	7	2	.	.	X
dem-4198	7	3	introduction	introduction	NOUN
dem-4198	7	4	econometric	econometric	ADJ
dem-4198	7	5	models	model	NOUN
dem-4198	7	6	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	7	7	both	both	PRON
dem-4198	7	8	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	7	9	the	the	DET
dem-4198	7	10	structural	structural	ADJ
dem-4198	7	11	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	7	12	a	a	PRON
dem-4198	7	13	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	7	14	theoretical	theoretical	ADJ
dem-4198	7	15	ones	one	NOUN
dem-4198	7	16	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	7	17	are	be	AUX
dem-4198	7	18	widely	widely	ADV
dem-4198	7	19	used	use	VERB
dem-4198	7	20	to	to	PART
dem-4198	7	21	provide	provide	VERB
dem-4198	7	22	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
dem-4198	7	23	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	7	24	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	7	25	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	8	1	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	8	2	a	a	DET
dem-4198	8	3	recent	recent	ADJ
dem-4198	8	4	study	study	NOUN
dem-4198	8	5	stock	stock	NOUN
dem-4198	8	6	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	8	7	watson	watson	PROPN
dem-4198	8	8	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	8	9	2007	2007	NUM
dem-4198	8	10	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	8	11	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	8	12	found	find	VERB
dem-4198	8	13	that	that	SCONJ
dem-4198	8	14	a	a	DET
dem-4198	8	15	local	local	ADJ
dem-4198	8	16	level	level	NOUN
dem-4198	8	17	model	model	NOUN
dem-4198	8	18	with	with	ADP
dem-4198	8	19	stochastic	stochastic	ADJ
dem-4198	8	20	volatility	volatility	NOUN
dem-4198	8	21	gives	give	VERB
dem-4198	8	22	the	the	DET
dem-4198	8	23	most	most	ADV
dem-4198	8	24	accurate	accurate	ADJ
dem-4198	8	25	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
dem-4198	8	26	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	8	27	quarterly	quarterly	ADJ
dem-4198	8	28	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	8	29	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	8	30	the	the	DET
dem-4198	8	31	united	united	PROPN
dem-4198	8	32	states	states	PROPN
dem-4198	8	33	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	9	1	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	9	2	their	their	PRON
dem-4198	9	3	paper	paper	NOUN
dem-4198	9	4	they	they	PRON
dem-4198	9	5	compare	compare	VERB
dem-4198	9	6	the	the	DET
dem-4198	9	7	accuracy	accuracy	NOUN
dem-4198	9	8	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	9	9	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	9	10	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
dem-4198	9	11	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	9	12	wide	wide	ADJ
dem-4198	9	13	class	class	NOUN
dem-4198	9	14	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	9	15	models	model	NOUN
dem-4198	9	16	including	include	VERB
dem-4198	9	17	standard	standard	ADJ
dem-4198	9	18	arima	arima	PROPN
dem-4198	9	19	time	time	NOUN
dem-4198	9	20	series	series	PROPN
dem-4198	9	21	models	model	NOUN
dem-4198	9	22	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	9	23	time	time	NOUN
dem-4198	9	24	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	9	25	varying	vary	VERB
dem-4198	9	26	parameters	parameter	NOUN
dem-4198	9	27	models	model	NOUN
dem-4198	9	28	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	9	29	tvp	tvp	PROPN
dem-4198	9	30	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	9	31	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	9	32	the	the	DET
dem-4198	9	33	phillips	phillip	NOUN
dem-4198	9	34	curve	curve	NOUN
dem-4198	9	35	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	9	36	based	base	VERB
dem-4198	9	37	models	model	NOUN
dem-4198	9	38	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	10	1	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	10	2	this	this	DET
dem-4198	10	3	paper	paper	NOUN
dem-4198	10	4	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	10	5	we	we	PRON
dem-4198	10	6	examine	examine	VERB
dem-4198	10	7	several	several	ADJ
dem-4198	10	8	types	type	NOUN
dem-4198	10	9	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	10	10	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	10	11	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
dem-4198	10	12	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	10	13	poland	poland	PROPN
dem-4198	10	14	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	10	15	which	which	PRON
dem-4198	10	16	are	be	AUX
dem-4198	10	17	based	base	VERB
dem-4198	10	18	on	on	ADP
dem-4198	10	19	time	time	NOUN
dem-4198	10	20	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	10	21	varying	vary	VERB
dem-4198	10	22	parameters	parameter	NOUN
dem-4198	10	23	model	model	NOUN
dem-4198	10	24	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	10	25	subject	subject	VERB
dem-4198	10	26	them	they	PRON
dem-4198	10	27	to	to	ADP
dem-4198	10	28	tests	test	NOUN
dem-4198	10	29	for	for	ADP
dem-4198	10	30	accuracy	accuracy	NOUN
dem-4198	10	31	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	11	1	the	the	DET
dem-4198	11	2	paper	paper	NOUN
dem-4198	11	3	is	be	AUX
dem-4198	11	4	organized	organize	VERB
dem-4198	11	5	as	as	SCONJ
dem-4198	11	6	follows	follow	VERB
dem-4198	11	7	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	12	1	section	section	NOUN
dem-4198	12	2	2	2	NUM
dem-4198	12	3	presents	present	VERB
dem-4198	12	4	the	the	DET
dem-4198	12	5	models	model	NOUN
dem-4198	12	6	which	which	PRON
dem-4198	12	7	are	be	AUX
dem-4198	12	8	used	use	VERB
dem-4198	12	9	to	to	PART
dem-4198	12	10	forecast	forecast	VERB
dem-4198	12	11	monthly	monthly	ADJ
dem-4198	12	12	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	12	13	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	12	14	poland	poland	PROPN
dem-4198	12	15	:	:	PUNCT
dem-4198	12	16	ll	ll	NOUN
dem-4198	12	17	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	12	18	sv	sv	NOUN
dem-4198	12	19	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	12	20	ll	ll	NOUN
dem-4198	12	21	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	12	22	garch	garch	NOUN
dem-4198	12	23	with	with	ADP
dem-4198	12	24	two	two	NUM
dem-4198	12	25	†	†	NOUN
dem-4198	12	26	this	this	DET
dem-4198	12	27	work	work	NOUN
dem-4198	12	28	was	be	AUX
dem-4198	12	29	financed	finance	VERB
dem-4198	12	30	from	from	ADP
dem-4198	12	31	the	the	DET
dem-4198	12	32	polish	polish	ADJ
dem-4198	12	33	science	science	NOUN
dem-4198	12	34	budget	budget	NOUN
dem-4198	12	35	resources	resource	NOUN
dem-4198	12	36	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	12	37	the	the	DET
dem-4198	12	38	years	year	NOUN
dem-4198	12	39	2009	2009	NUM
dem-4198	12	40	-	-	SYM
dem-4198	12	41	2011	2011	NUM
dem-4198	12	42	as	as	ADP
dem-4198	12	43	the	the	DET
dem-4198	12	44	research	research	NOUN
dem-4198	12	45	project	project	NOUN
dem-4198	12	46	no	no	INTJ
dem-4198	12	47	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	13	1	n	n	PROPN
dem-4198	13	2	n111	n111	PROPN
dem-4198	13	3	431737	431737	NUM
dem-4198	13	4	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	14	1	i	i	PRON
dem-4198	14	2	would	would	AUX
dem-4198	14	3	like	like	VERB
dem-4198	14	4	to	to	PART
dem-4198	14	5	thank	thank	VERB
dem-4198	14	6	grzegorz	grzegorz	PROPN
dem-4198	14	7	szafrański	szafrański	NOUN
dem-4198	14	8	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	14	9	one	one	NUM
dem-4198	14	10	anonymous	anonymous	ADJ
dem-4198	14	11	referee	referee	NOUN
dem-4198	14	12	for	for	ADP
dem-4198	14	13	helpful	helpful	ADJ
dem-4198	14	14	comments	comment	NOUN
dem-4198	14	15	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	14	16	suggestions	suggestion	NOUN
dem-4198	14	17	;	;	PUNCT
dem-4198	14	18	e	e	X
dem-4198	14	19	-	-	NOUN
dem-4198	14	20	mail	mail	NOUN
dem-4198	14	21	:	:	PUNCT
dem-4198	15	1	jkwiat@umk.pl	jkwiat@umk.pl	PROPN
dem-4198	15	2	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	16	1	jacek	jacek	PROPN
dem-4198	16	2	kwiatkowski	kwiatkowski	VERB
dem-4198	16	3	122	122	NUM
dem-4198	16	4	different	different	ADJ
dem-4198	16	5	distributions	distribution	NOUN
dem-4198	16	6	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	16	7	the	the	DET
dem-4198	16	8	disturbances	disturbance	NOUN
dem-4198	16	9	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	16	10	normal	normal	ADJ
dem-4198	16	11	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	16	12	student	student	NOUN
dem-4198	16	13	's	's	PART
dem-4198	16	14	t	t	PROPN
dem-4198	16	15	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	16	16	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	16	17	standard	standard	ADJ
dem-4198	16	18	ar(2)-sv	ar(2)-sv	PROPN
dem-4198	16	19	model	model	NOUN
dem-4198	16	20	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	17	1	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	17	2	section	section	NOUN
dem-4198	17	3	3	3	NUM
dem-4198	17	4	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	17	5	we	we	PRON
dem-4198	17	6	compare	compare	VERB
dem-4198	17	7	forecast	forecast	NOUN
dem-4198	17	8	accuracy	accuracy	NOUN
dem-4198	17	9	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	17	10	the	the	DET
dem-4198	17	11	mentioned	mention	VERB
dem-4198	17	12	above	above	ADP
dem-4198	17	13	models	model	NOUN
dem-4198	17	14	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	18	1	we	we	PRON
dem-4198	18	2	use	use	VERB
dem-4198	18	3	two	two	NUM
dem-4198	18	4	forecast	forecast	NOUN
dem-4198	18	5	accuracy	accuracy	NOUN
dem-4198	18	6	measures	measure	NOUN
dem-4198	18	7	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	18	8	namely	namely	ADV
dem-4198	18	9	:	:	PUNCT
dem-4198	18	10	the	the	DET
dem-4198	18	11	sign	sign	NOUN
dem-4198	18	12	test	test	NOUN
dem-4198	18	13	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	18	14	wilcoxon	wilcoxon	PROPN
dem-4198	18	15	signed	sign	VERB
dem-4198	18	16	rank	rank	NOUN
dem-4198	18	17	test	test	NOUN
dem-4198	18	18	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	18	19	see	see	VERB
dem-4198	18	20	diebold	diebold	NOUN
dem-4198	18	21	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	18	22	mariano	mariano	ADJ
dem-4198	18	23	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	18	24	1995	1995	NUM
dem-4198	18	25	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	18	26	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	19	1	the	the	DET
dem-4198	19	2	predictive	predictive	ADJ
dem-4198	19	3	distribution	distribution	NOUN
dem-4198	19	4	calculated	calculate	VERB
dem-4198	19	5	for	for	ADP
dem-4198	19	6	the	the	DET
dem-4198	19	7	future	future	ADJ
dem-4198	19	8	observables	observable	NOUN
dem-4198	19	9	enable	enable	VERB
dem-4198	19	10	us	we	PRON
dem-4198	19	11	to	to	PART
dem-4198	19	12	provide	provide	VERB
dem-4198	19	13	a	a	DET
dem-4198	19	14	detailed	detailed	ADJ
dem-4198	19	15	analysis	analysis	NOUN
dem-4198	19	16	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	19	17	the	the	DET
dem-4198	19	18	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	19	19	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
dem-4198	19	20	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	19	21	therefore	therefore	ADV
dem-4198	19	22	we	we	PRON
dem-4198	19	23	also	also	ADV
dem-4198	19	24	present	present	VERB
dem-4198	19	25	the	the	DET
dem-4198	19	26	predictive	predictive	ADJ
dem-4198	19	27	medians	median	NOUN
dem-4198	19	28	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	19	29	interquartile	interquartile	ADJ
dem-4198	19	30	range	range	NOUN
dem-4198	19	31	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	20	1	it	it	PRON
dem-4198	20	2	is	be	AUX
dem-4198	20	3	also	also	ADV
dem-4198	20	4	well	well	ADV
dem-4198	20	5	known	know	VERB
dem-4198	20	6	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	20	7	that	that	SCONJ
dem-4198	20	8	polish	polish	ADJ
dem-4198	20	9	monetary	monetary	ADJ
dem-4198	20	10	authorities	authority	NOUN
dem-4198	20	11	conduct	conduct	VERB
dem-4198	20	12	the	the	DET
dem-4198	20	13	policy	policy	NOUN
dem-4198	20	14	under	under	ADP
dem-4198	20	15	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	20	16	targeting	target	VERB
dem-4198	20	17	regime	regime	NOUN
dem-4198	20	18	between	between	ADP
dem-4198	20	19	1.5	1.5	NUM
dem-4198	20	20	%	%	NOUN
dem-4198	20	21	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	20	22	3.5	3.5	NUM
dem-4198	20	23	%	%	NOUN
dem-4198	20	24	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	20	25	the	the	DET
dem-4198	20	26	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	20	27	prediction	prediction	NOUN
dem-4198	20	28	is	be	AUX
dem-4198	20	29	one	one	NUM
dem-4198	20	30	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	20	31	the	the	DET
dem-4198	20	32	inputs	input	NOUN
dem-4198	20	33	to	to	ADP
dem-4198	20	34	the	the	DET
dem-4198	20	35	monetary	monetary	ADJ
dem-4198	20	36	policy	policy	NOUN
dem-4198	20	37	council	council	NOUN
dem-4198	20	38	’s	’s	PART
dem-4198	20	39	decision	decision	NOUN
dem-4198	20	40	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	20	41	making	make	VERB
dem-4198	20	42	process	process	NOUN
dem-4198	20	43	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	21	1	then	then	ADV
dem-4198	21	2	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	21	3	it	it	PRON
dem-4198	21	4	is	be	AUX
dem-4198	21	5	worth	worth	ADJ
dem-4198	21	6	to	to	PART
dem-4198	21	7	consider	consider	VERB
dem-4198	21	8	what	what	PRON
dem-4198	21	9	the	the	DET
dem-4198	21	10	posterior	posterior	ADJ
dem-4198	21	11	probability	probability	NOUN
dem-4198	21	12	for	for	ADP
dem-4198	21	13	the	the	DET
dem-4198	21	14	hypothesis	hypothesis	NOUN
dem-4198	21	15	is	be	AUX
dem-4198	21	16	that	that	SCONJ
dem-4198	21	17	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	21	18	will	will	AUX
dem-4198	21	19	stay	stay	VERB
dem-4198	21	20	inside	inside	ADP
dem-4198	21	21	the	the	DET
dem-4198	21	22	targeting	targeting	NOUN
dem-4198	21	23	bound	bind	VERB
dem-4198	21	24	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	21	25	how	how	SCONJ
dem-4198	21	26	this	this	DET
dem-4198	21	27	posterior	posterior	ADJ
dem-4198	21	28	probability	probability	NOUN
dem-4198	21	29	changes	change	NOUN
dem-4198	21	30	as	as	SCONJ
dem-4198	21	31	the	the	DET
dem-4198	21	32	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
dem-4198	21	33	horizon	horizon	NOUN
dem-4198	21	34	grows	grow	VERB
dem-4198	21	35	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	22	1	section	section	NOUN
dem-4198	22	2	4	4	NUM
dem-4198	22	3	concludes	conclude	VERB
dem-4198	22	4	the	the	DET
dem-4198	22	5	paper	paper	NOUN
dem-4198	22	6	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	23	1	2	2	X
dem-4198	23	2	.	.	NUM
dem-4198	23	3	unobserved	unobserved	ADJ
dem-4198	23	4	component	component	NOUN
dem-4198	23	5	model	model	NOUN
dem-4198	23	6	with	with	ADP
dem-4198	23	7	time	time	NOUN
dem-4198	23	8	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	23	9	varying	vary	VERB
dem-4198	23	10	conditional	conditional	ADJ
dem-4198	23	11	variance	variance	NOUN
dem-4198	23	12	stock	stock	NOUN
dem-4198	23	13	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	23	14	watson	watson	PROPN
dem-4198	23	15	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	23	16	2007	2007	NUM
dem-4198	23	17	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	23	18	used	use	VERB
dem-4198	23	19	unobserved	unobserved	ADJ
dem-4198	23	20	component	component	NOUN
dem-4198	23	21	model	model	NOUN
dem-4198	23	22	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	23	23	ll	ll	NOUN
dem-4198	23	24	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	23	25	sv	sv	NOUN
dem-4198	23	26	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	23	27	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	23	28	which	which	PRON
dem-4198	23	29	is	be	AUX
dem-4198	23	30	very	very	ADV
dem-4198	23	31	effective	effective	ADJ
dem-4198	23	32	for	for	ADP
dem-4198	23	33	forecasting	forecast	VERB
dem-4198	23	34	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	23	35	:	:	PUNCT
dem-4198	23	36	ttty	ttty	VERB
dem-4198	23	37	εδ	εδ	ADP
dem-4198	23	38	+	+	NOUN
dem-4198	23	39	=	=	NOUN
dem-4198	23	40	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	23	41	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	23	42	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	23	43	2,0~	2,0~	PROPN
dem-4198	23	44	tt	tt	PROPN
dem-4198	23	45	n	n	CCONJ
dem-4198	23	46	σε	σε	PROPN
dem-4198	23	47	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	23	48	tt	tt	PROPN
dem-4198	23	49	...	...	PUNCT
dem-4198	23	50	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	23	51	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	23	52	2,1=	2,1=	PROPN
dem-4198	23	53	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	23	54	1	1	NUM
dem-4198	23	55	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	23	56	ttt	ttt	NOUN
dem-4198	23	57	ηδδ	ηδδ	VERB
dem-4198	24	1	+	+	PROPN
dem-4198	24	2	=	=	NOUN
dem-4198	24	3	−1	−1	NOUN
dem-4198	24	4	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	24	5	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	24	6	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	24	7	2,0~	2,0~	PROPN
dem-4198	24	8	tt	tt	PROPN
dem-4198	24	9	n	n	PROPN
dem-4198	24	10	ωη	ωη	NOUN
dem-4198	24	11	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	24	12	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	24	13	2	2	X
dem-4198	24	14	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	24	15	where	where	SCONJ
dem-4198	24	16	the	the	DET
dem-4198	24	17	irregular	irregular	ADJ
dem-4198	24	18	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	24	19	level	level	NOUN
dem-4198	24	20	disturbances	disturbance	NOUN
dem-4198	24	21	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	24	22	tε	tε	NOUN
dem-4198	24	23	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	24	24	tη	tη	PROPN
dem-4198	24	25	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	24	26	respectively	respectively	ADV
dem-4198	24	27	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	24	28	are	be	AUX
dem-4198	24	29	mutually	mutually	ADV
dem-4198	24	30	independent	independent	ADJ
dem-4198	24	31	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	24	32	tδ	tδ	PROPN
dem-4198	24	33	denotes	denote	NOUN
dem-4198	24	34	underlying	underlie	VERB
dem-4198	24	35	stochastic	stochastic	ADJ
dem-4198	24	36	level	level	NOUN
dem-4198	24	37	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	25	1	consider	consider	VERB
dem-4198	25	2	now	now	ADV
dem-4198	25	3	that	that	SCONJ
dem-4198	25	4	tε	tε	PROPN
dem-4198	25	5	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	25	6	tη	tη	PROPN
dem-4198	25	7	are	be	AUX
dem-4198	25	8	stationary	stationary	ADJ
dem-4198	25	9	sv	sv	PROPN
dem-4198	25	10	processes	process	NOUN
dem-4198	25	11	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	25	12	where	where	SCONJ
dem-4198	25	13	:	:	PUNCT
dem-4198	25	14	tirregtirregirregtirreg	tirregtirregirregtirreg	PROPN
dem-4198	25	15	hh	hh	PROPN
dem-4198	25	16	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	25	17	1	1	NUM
dem-4198	25	18	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	25	19	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	25	20	ζρ	ζρ	ADP
dem-4198	25	21	+	+	NOUN
dem-4198	25	22	=	=	X
dem-4198	25	23	−	−	PROPN
dem-4198	25	24	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	25	25	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	25	26	3	3	X
dem-4198	25	27	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	25	28	tleveltlevelleveltlevel	tleveltlevelleveltlevel	NOUN
dem-4198	25	29	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	25	30	hh	hh	X
dem-4198	25	31	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	25	32	1	1	NUM
dem-4198	25	33	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	25	34	ζρ	ζρ	NOUN
dem-4198	25	35	+	+	NOUN
dem-4198	25	36	=	=	NOUN
dem-4198	25	37	−	−	PROPN
dem-4198	25	38	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	25	39	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	25	40	4	4	NUM
dem-4198	25	41	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	25	42	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	25	43	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	25	44	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	25	45	2,0~	2,0~	PROPN
dem-4198	25	46	tt	tt	PROPN
dem-4198	25	47	n	n	CCONJ
dem-4198	25	48	σε	σε	PROPN
dem-4198	25	49	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	25	50	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	25	51	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	25	52	2,0~	2,0~	PROPN
dem-4198	25	53	tt	tt	PROPN
dem-4198	25	54	n	n	PROPN
dem-4198	25	55	ωη	ωη	NOUN
dem-4198	25	56	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	25	57	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	25	58	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	25	59	tirregt	tirregt	VERB
dem-4198	25	60	h	h	NOUN
dem-4198	25	61	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	25	62	2	2	NUM
dem-4198	25	63	exp	exp	NOUN
dem-4198	25	64	=	=	SYM
dem-4198	25	65	σ	σ	NOUN
dem-4198	25	66	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	25	67	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	25	68	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	25	69	tlevelt	tlevelt	PROPN
dem-4198	25	70	h	h	NOUN
dem-4198	25	71	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	25	72	2	2	NUM
dem-4198	25	73	exp	exp	NOUN
dem-4198	25	74	=	=	SYM
dem-4198	25	75	ω	ω	PROPN
dem-4198	25	76	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	25	77	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	25	78	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	25	79	1,1	1,1	NUM
dem-4198	25	80	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	25	81	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	25	82	−∈levelirregρ	−∈levelirregρ	X
dem-4198	25	83	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	25	84	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	25	85	)	)	SYM
dem-4198	25	86	2	2	X
dem-4198	25	87	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	25	88	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	25	89	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	25	90	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	25	91	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	25	92	0~	0~	NOUN
dem-4198	25	93	levelirreglevelirreg	levelirreglevelirreg	NOUN
dem-4198	25	94	n	n	ADV
dem-4198	26	1	γζ	γζ	INTJ
dem-4198	26	2	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	27	1	it	it	PRON
dem-4198	27	2	’s	’	VERB
dem-4198	27	3	easy	easy	ADJ
dem-4198	27	4	to	to	PART
dem-4198	27	5	see	see	VERB
dem-4198	27	6	that	that	SCONJ
dem-4198	27	7	the	the	DET
dem-4198	27	8	reduced	reduced	ADJ
dem-4198	27	9	form	form	NOUN
dem-4198	27	10	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	27	11	unobserved	unobserved	ADJ
dem-4198	27	12	component	component	NOUN
dem-4198	27	13	model	model	NOUN
dem-4198	27	14	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	27	15	1)(2	1)(2	NUM
dem-4198	27	16	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	27	17	is	be	AUX
dem-4198	27	18	a	a	DET
dem-4198	27	19	local	local	ADJ
dem-4198	27	20	level	level	NOUN
dem-4198	27	21	model	model	NOUN
dem-4198	27	22	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	27	23	ll	ll	NOUN
dem-4198	27	24	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	27	25	with	with	ADP
dem-4198	27	26	restrictions	restriction	NOUN
dem-4198	27	27	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	27	28	parameters	parameter	NOUN
dem-4198	27	29	:	:	PUNCT
dem-4198	27	30	22	22	NUM
dem-4198	27	31	σσ	σσ	ADP
dem-4198	27	32	=	=	NOUN
dem-4198	27	33	t	t	PROPN
dem-4198	27	34	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	27	35	22	22	NUM
dem-4198	27	36	ωω	ωω	X
dem-4198	27	37	=	=	NOUN
dem-4198	27	38	t	t	PROPN
dem-4198	27	39	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	28	1	the	the	DET
dem-4198	28	2	local	local	ADJ
dem-4198	28	3	level	level	NOUN
dem-4198	28	4	model	model	NOUN
dem-4198	28	5	is	be	AUX
dem-4198	28	6	a	a	DET
dem-4198	28	7	well	well	ADV
dem-4198	28	8	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	28	9	known	know	VERB
dem-4198	28	10	model	model	NOUN
dem-4198	28	11	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	28	12	it	it	PRON
dem-4198	28	13	has	have	VERB
dem-4198	28	14	a	a	DET
dem-4198	28	15	long	long	ADJ
dem-4198	28	16	tradition	tradition	NOUN
dem-4198	28	17	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	28	18	economic	economic	ADJ
dem-4198	28	19	time	time	NOUN
dem-4198	28	20	series	series	NOUN
dem-4198	28	21	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	29	1	the	the	DET
dem-4198	29	2	literature	literature	NOUN
dem-4198	29	3	that	that	PRON
dem-4198	29	4	considers	consider	VERB
dem-4198	29	5	its	its	PRON
dem-4198	29	6	properties	property	NOUN
dem-4198	29	7	is	be	AUX
dem-4198	29	8	very	very	ADV
dem-4198	29	9	extensive	extensive	ADJ
dem-4198	29	10	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	29	11	previously	previously	ADV
dem-4198	29	12	interested	interested	ADJ
dem-4198	29	13	many	many	ADJ
dem-4198	29	14	authors	author	NOUN
dem-4198	29	15	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	29	16	see	see	VERB
dem-4198	29	17	for	for	ADP
dem-4198	29	18	example	example	NOUN
dem-4198	29	19	muth	muth	PROPN
dem-4198	29	20	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	29	21	1960	1960	NUM
dem-4198	29	22	;	;	PUNCT
dem-4198	29	23	harvey	harvey	NOUN
dem-4198	29	24	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	29	25	1989	1989	NUM
dem-4198	29	26	;	;	PUNCT
dem-4198	29	27	west	west	NOUN
dem-4198	29	28	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	29	29	harrison	harrison	PROPN
dem-4198	29	30	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	29	31	1989	1989	NUM
dem-4198	29	32	;	;	PUNCT
dem-4198	29	33	durbin	durbin	NOUN
dem-4198	29	34	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	29	35	koopman	koopman	PROPN
dem-4198	29	36	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	29	37	2001	2001	NUM
dem-4198	29	38	;	;	PUNCT
dem-4198	29	39	koop	koop	PROPN
dem-4198	29	40	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	29	41	2003	2003	NUM
dem-4198	29	42	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	29	43	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	30	1	unobserved	unobserved	ADJ
dem-4198	30	2	component	component	NOUN
dem-4198	30	3	model	model	NOUN
dem-4198	30	4	for	for	ADP
dem-4198	30	5	forecasting	forecast	VERB
dem-4198	30	6	polish	polish	ADJ
dem-4198	30	7	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	30	8	123	123	NUM
dem-4198	30	9	consider	consider	VERB
dem-4198	30	10	the	the	DET
dem-4198	30	11	ll	ll	NOUN
dem-4198	30	12	model	model	VERB
dem-4198	30	13	when	when	SCONJ
dem-4198	30	14	the	the	DET
dem-4198	30	15	disturbances	disturbance	NOUN
dem-4198	30	16	follow	follow	VERB
dem-4198	30	17	normal	normal	ADJ
dem-4198	30	18	garch	garch	NOUN
dem-4198	30	19	or	or	CCONJ
dem-4198	30	20	student	student	NOUN
dem-4198	30	21	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	30	22	t	t	NOUN
dem-4198	30	23	garch	garch	NOUN
dem-4198	30	24	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	31	1	assuming	assume	VERB
dem-4198	31	2	that	that	SCONJ
dem-4198	31	3	each	each	DET
dem-4198	31	4	noise	noise	NOUN
dem-4198	31	5	is	be	AUX
dem-4198	31	6	a	a	DET
dem-4198	31	7	conditionally	conditionally	ADV
dem-4198	31	8	normal	normal	ADJ
dem-4198	31	9	process	process	NOUN
dem-4198	31	10	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	31	11	we	we	PRON
dem-4198	31	12	have	have	VERB
dem-4198	31	13	:	:	PUNCT
dem-4198	31	14	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	31	15	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	31	16	2,0~	2,0~	PROPN
dem-4198	31	17	tt	tt	PROPN
dem-4198	31	18	n	n	CCONJ
dem-4198	31	19	σε	σε	PROPN
dem-4198	31	20	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	31	21	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	31	22	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	31	23	2,0~	2,0~	PROPN
dem-4198	31	24	tt	tt	PROPN
dem-4198	31	25	n	n	PROPN
dem-4198	31	26	ωη	ωη	NOUN
dem-4198	31	27	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	32	1	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	32	2	5	5	X
dem-4198	32	3	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	32	4	the	the	DET
dem-4198	32	5	equivalent	equivalent	ADJ
dem-4198	32	6	student	student	NOUN
dem-4198	32	7	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	32	8	t	t	NOUN
dem-4198	32	9	disturbances	disturbance	NOUN
dem-4198	32	10	are	be	AUX
dem-4198	32	11	denoted	denote	VERB
dem-4198	32	12	as	as	ADP
dem-4198	32	13	:	:	PUNCT
dem-4198	32	14	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	32	15	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	32	16	⎟	⎟	X
dem-4198	32	17	⎟	⎟	X
dem-4198	32	18	⎠	⎠	PUNCT
dem-4198	32	19	⎞	⎞	PROPN
dem-4198	32	20	⎜	⎜	PROPN
dem-4198	32	21	⎜	⎜	PROPN
dem-4198	32	22	⎝	⎝	PUNCT
dem-4198	32	23	⎛	⎛	NOUN
dem-4198	32	24	−	−	NOUN
dem-4198	32	25	irreg	irreg	NOUN
dem-4198	32	26	tirreg	tirreg	VERB
dem-4198	32	27	irreg	irreg	NOUN
dem-4198	32	28	t	t	PROPN
dem-4198	32	29	v	v	NUM
dem-4198	32	30	v	v	PROPN
dem-4198	32	31	v	v	ADP
dem-4198	32	32	t	t	NOUN
dem-4198	32	33	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	32	34	2	2	NUM
dem-4198	32	35	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	32	36	0~	0~	NOUN
dem-4198	32	37	2σ	2σ	PROPN
dem-4198	32	38	ε	ε	PROPN
dem-4198	32	39	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	32	40	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	32	41	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	32	42	⎟⎟	⎟⎟	ADJ
dem-4198	32	43	⎠	⎠	PUNCT
dem-4198	32	44	⎞	⎞	PROPN
dem-4198	32	45	⎜⎜	⎜⎜	NOUN
dem-4198	32	46	⎝	⎝	PUNCT
dem-4198	32	47	⎛	⎛	NOUN
dem-4198	32	48	−	−	NOUN
dem-4198	32	49	level	level	NOUN
dem-4198	32	50	tlevel	tlevel	NOUN
dem-4198	32	51	level	level	NOUN
dem-4198	32	52	t	t	PROPN
dem-4198	32	53	v	v	NOUN
dem-4198	32	54	v	v	ADP
dem-4198	32	55	vt	vt	PROPN
dem-4198	32	56	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	32	57	2	2	NUM
dem-4198	32	58	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	32	59	0~	0~	NOUN
dem-4198	32	60	2ω	2ω	PROPN
dem-4198	32	61	η	η	PROPN
dem-4198	32	62	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	32	63	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	32	64	6	6	NUM
dem-4198	32	65	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	32	66	where	where	SCONJ
dem-4198	32	67	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	32	68	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	32	69	vpat	vpat	PROPN
dem-4198	32	70	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	32	71	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	32	72	denotes	denote	NOUN
dem-4198	32	73	student	student	NOUN
dem-4198	32	74	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	32	75	t	t	NOUN
dem-4198	32	76	density	density	NOUN
dem-4198	32	77	with	with	ADP
dem-4198	32	78	expectation	expectation	NOUN
dem-4198	32	79	a	a	DET
dem-4198	32	80	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	32	81	precision	precision	NOUN
dem-4198	32	82	p	p	NOUN
dem-4198	32	83	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	32	84	v	v	NUM
dem-4198	32	85	degrees	degree	NOUN
dem-4198	32	86	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	32	87	freedom	freedom	NOUN
dem-4198	32	88	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	33	1	for	for	ADP
dem-4198	33	2	garch(1,1	garch(1,1	NOUN
dem-4198	33	3	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	33	4	process	process	NOUN
dem-4198	33	5	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	33	6	the	the	DET
dem-4198	33	7	variance	variance	NOUN
dem-4198	33	8	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	33	9	the	the	DET
dem-4198	33	10	observation	observation	NOUN
dem-4198	33	11	equation	equation	NOUN
dem-4198	33	12	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	33	13	1	1	NUM
dem-4198	33	14	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	33	15	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	33	16	state	state	NOUN
dem-4198	33	17	equation	equation	NOUN
dem-4198	33	18	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	33	19	2	2	X
dem-4198	33	20	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	33	21	varies	vary	VERB
dem-4198	33	22	over	over	ADP
dem-4198	33	23	time	time	NOUN
dem-4198	33	24	according	accord	VERB
dem-4198	33	25	to	to	ADP
dem-4198	33	26	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	33	27	see	see	INTJ
dem-4198	33	28	bos	bo	NOUN
dem-4198	33	29	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	33	30	2001	2001	NUM
dem-4198	33	31	):	):	PUNCT
dem-4198	33	32	tirregt	tirregt	VERB
dem-4198	33	33	h	h	NOUN
dem-4198	33	34	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	33	35	2	2	NUM
dem-4198	33	36	=	=	SYM
dem-4198	33	37	σ	σ	PROPN
dem-4198	33	38	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	33	39	tlevelt	tlevelt	PROPN
dem-4198	33	40	h	h	NOUN
dem-4198	33	41	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	33	42	2	2	NUM
dem-4198	33	43	=	=	SYM
dem-4198	33	44	ω	ω	NUM
dem-4198	33	45	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	33	46	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	33	47	7	7	NUM
dem-4198	33	48	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	33	49	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	33	50	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	33	51	21,1,01,,1	21,1,01,,1	NOUN
dem-4198	33	52	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	33	53	−−	−−	NOUN
dem-4198	33	54	+	+	NOUN
dem-4198	33	55	+	+	NOUN
dem-4198	33	56	=	=	NOUN
dem-4198	33	57	tirregirregtirregirregtirreg	tirregirregtirregirregtirreg	NOUN
dem-4198	33	58	eaahbh	eaahbh	NOUN
dem-4198	33	59	ε	ε	PROPN
dem-4198	33	60	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	33	61	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	33	62	8)	8)	NUM
dem-4198	33	63	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	33	64	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	33	65	21,1,01,,1	21,1,01,,1	NOUN
dem-4198	33	66	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	33	67	−−	−−	NOUN
dem-4198	33	68	+	+	PROPN
dem-4198	33	69	+	+	PROPN
dem-4198	33	70	=	=	SYM
dem-4198	33	71	tlevelleveltlevelleveltlevel	tlevelleveltlevelleveltlevel	PROPN
dem-4198	33	72	eaahbh	eaahbh	PROPN
dem-4198	33	73	η	η	PROPN
dem-4198	33	74	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	33	75	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	33	76	9	9	NUM
dem-4198	33	77	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	33	78	with	with	ADP
dem-4198	33	79	the	the	DET
dem-4198	33	80	parametric	parametric	ADJ
dem-4198	33	81	constraints	constraint	NOUN
dem-4198	33	82	that	that	PRON
dem-4198	33	83	are	be	AUX
dem-4198	33	84	sufficient	sufficient	ADJ
dem-4198	33	85	for	for	ADP
dem-4198	33	86	positivity	positivity	NOUN
dem-4198	33	87	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	33	88	stationarity	stationarity	NOUN
dem-4198	33	89	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	33	90	the	the	DET
dem-4198	33	91	conditional	conditional	ADJ
dem-4198	33	92	variance	variance	NOUN
dem-4198	33	93	:	:	PUNCT
dem-4198	33	94	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	33	95	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	33	96	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	33	97	1)(,1)(,0	1)(,1)(,0	NUM
dem-4198	33	98	1	1	NUM
dem-4198	33	99	levelirreglevelirreglevelirreg	levelirreglevelirreglevelirreg	VERB
dem-4198	33	100	aba	aba	PROPN
dem-4198	33	101	−−≡	−−≡	X
dem-4198	33	102	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	33	103	0)(,1	0)(,1	PUNCT
dem-4198	34	1	≥levelirregb	≥levelirregb	NUM
dem-4198	34	2	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	34	3	0)(,1	0)(,1	NUM
dem-4198	34	4	≥levelirrega	≥levelirrega	NUM
dem-4198	34	5	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	34	6	1)(1)(,1	1)(1)(,1	NUM
dem-4198	34	7	<	<	X
dem-4198	34	8	+	+	X
dem-4198	34	9	levelirreglevelirreg	levelirreglevelirreg	NOUN
dem-4198	34	10	ba	ba	PROPN
dem-4198	34	11	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	35	1	the	the	DET
dem-4198	35	2	properties	property	NOUN
dem-4198	35	3	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	35	4	the	the	DET
dem-4198	35	5	ll	ll	PROPN
dem-4198	35	6	model	model	NOUN
dem-4198	35	7	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	35	8	when	when	SCONJ
dem-4198	35	9	the	the	DET
dem-4198	35	10	disturbances	disturbance	NOUN
dem-4198	35	11	follow	follow	VERB
dem-4198	35	12	garch(1,1	garch(1,1	NOUN
dem-4198	35	13	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	35	14	process	process	NOUN
dem-4198	35	15	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	35	16	are	be	AUX
dem-4198	35	17	presented	present	VERB
dem-4198	35	18	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	35	19	pellegrini	pellegrini	PROPN
dem-4198	35	20	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	35	21	ruiz	ruiz	NOUN
dem-4198	35	22	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	35	23	espasa	espasa	PROPN
dem-4198	35	24	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	35	25	2007	2007	NUM
dem-4198	35	26	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	35	27	2008	2008	NUM
dem-4198	35	28	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	35	29	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	36	1	the	the	DET
dem-4198	36	2	last	last	ADJ
dem-4198	36	3	model	model	NOUN
dem-4198	36	4	is	be	AUX
dem-4198	36	5	a	a	DET
dem-4198	36	6	simple	simple	ADJ
dem-4198	36	7	ar(2)-sv	ar(2)-sv	NOUN
dem-4198	36	8	model	model	NOUN
dem-4198	36	9	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	36	10	which	which	PRON
dem-4198	36	11	is	be	AUX
dem-4198	36	12	used	use	VERB
dem-4198	36	13	as	as	ADP
dem-4198	36	14	a	a	DET
dem-4198	36	15	benchmark	benchmark	NOUN
dem-4198	36	16	model	model	NOUN
dem-4198	36	17	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	37	1	it	it	PRON
dem-4198	37	2	has	have	VERB
dem-4198	37	3	the	the	DET
dem-4198	37	4	following	follow	VERB
dem-4198	37	5	form	form	NOUN
dem-4198	37	6	:	:	PUNCT
dem-4198	37	7	tttt	tttt	NOUN
dem-4198	37	8	yyy	yyy	PROPN
dem-4198	37	9	εδδδ	εδδδ	NOUN
dem-4198	38	1	+	+	CCONJ
dem-4198	38	2	δ+δ+=δ	δ+δ+=δ	ADJ
dem-4198	38	3	−−	−−	NOUN
dem-4198	38	4	22110	22110	NUM
dem-4198	38	5	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	38	6	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	38	7	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	38	8	2,0~	2,0~	PROPN
dem-4198	38	9	tt	tt	PROPN
dem-4198	38	10	n	n	PROPN
dem-4198	38	11	σε	σε	PROPN
dem-4198	38	12	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	39	1	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	39	2	10	10	NUM
dem-4198	39	3	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	39	4	3	3	NUM
dem-4198	39	5	.	.	X
dem-4198	39	6	forecasting	forecast	VERB
dem-4198	39	7	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	39	8	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	39	9	this	this	DET
dem-4198	39	10	section	section	NOUN
dem-4198	39	11	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	39	12	we	we	PRON
dem-4198	39	13	examined	examine	VERB
dem-4198	39	14	whether	whether	SCONJ
dem-4198	39	15	the	the	DET
dem-4198	39	16	proposed	propose	VERB
dem-4198	39	17	models	model	NOUN
dem-4198	39	18	successfully	successfully	ADV
dem-4198	39	19	predict	predict	VERB
dem-4198	39	20	the	the	DET
dem-4198	39	21	value	value	NOUN
dem-4198	39	22	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	39	23	the	the	DET
dem-4198	39	24	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	39	25	rate	rate	NOUN
dem-4198	39	26	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	40	1	we	we	PRON
dem-4198	40	2	considered	consider	VERB
dem-4198	40	3	204	204	NUM
dem-4198	40	4	=	=	SYM
dem-4198	40	5	t	t	PRON
dem-4198	40	6	monthly	monthly	ADJ
dem-4198	40	7	observations	observation	NOUN
dem-4198	40	8	on	on	ADP
dem-4198	40	9	the	the	DET
dem-4198	40	10	logarithm	logarithm	NOUN
dem-4198	40	11	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	40	12	cpi	cpi	PROPN
dem-4198	40	13	from	from	ADP
dem-4198	40	14	january	january	PROPN
dem-4198	40	15	1992	1992	NUM
dem-4198	40	16	till	till	SCONJ
dem-4198	40	17	december	december	PROPN
dem-4198	40	18	2008	2008	NUM
dem-4198	40	19	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	41	1	the	the	DET
dem-4198	41	2	data	datum	NOUN
dem-4198	41	3	set	set	VERB
dem-4198	41	4	employed	employ	VERB
dem-4198	41	5	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	41	6	this	this	DET
dem-4198	41	7	study	study	NOUN
dem-4198	41	8	consists	consist	VERB
dem-4198	41	9	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	41	10	logarithmic	logarithmic	ADJ
dem-4198	41	11	transformations	transformation	NOUN
dem-4198	41	12	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	41	13	the	the	DET
dem-4198	41	14	original	original	ADJ
dem-4198	41	15	series	series	PROPN
dem-4198	41	16	cpi	cpi	PROPN
dem-4198	41	17	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	41	18	computed	compute	VERB
dem-4198	41	19	as	as	ADP
dem-4198	41	20	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	41	21	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	41	22	tt	tt	PROPN
dem-4198	41	23	cpiy	cpiy	VERB
dem-4198	41	24	ln100=	ln100=	PROPN
dem-4198	41	25	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	42	1	all	all	DET
dem-4198	42	2	data	datum	NOUN
dem-4198	42	3	has	have	AUX
dem-4198	42	4	been	be	AUX
dem-4198	42	5	seasonally	seasonally	ADV
dem-4198	42	6	adjusted	adjust	VERB
dem-4198	42	7	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	42	8	using	use	VERB
dem-4198	42	9	the	the	DET
dem-4198	42	10	moving	move	VERB
dem-4198	42	11	average	average	ADJ
dem-4198	42	12	method	method	NOUN
dem-4198	42	13	implemented	implement	VERB
dem-4198	42	14	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	42	15	eviews	eviews	PROPN
dem-4198	42	16	6	6	NUM
dem-4198	42	17	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	43	1	jacek	jacek	PROPN
dem-4198	43	2	kwiatkowski	kwiatkowski	VERB
dem-4198	43	3	124	124	NUM
dem-4198	43	4	before	before	ADP
dem-4198	43	5	starting	start	VERB
dem-4198	43	6	the	the	DET
dem-4198	43	7	analysis	analysis	NOUN
dem-4198	43	8	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	43	9	we	we	PRON
dem-4198	43	10	briefly	briefly	ADV
dem-4198	43	11	describe	describe	VERB
dem-4198	43	12	the	the	DET
dem-4198	43	13	processes	process	NOUN
dem-4198	43	14	that	that	PRON
dem-4198	43	15	influence	influence	VERB
dem-4198	43	16	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	43	17	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	43	18	poland	poland	PROPN
dem-4198	43	19	over	over	ADP
dem-4198	43	20	the	the	DET
dem-4198	43	21	past	past	ADJ
dem-4198	43	22	twenty	twenty	NUM
dem-4198	43	23	years	year	NOUN
dem-4198	43	24	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	44	1	during	during	ADP
dem-4198	44	2	the	the	DET
dem-4198	44	3	first	first	ADJ
dem-4198	44	4	years	year	NOUN
dem-4198	44	5	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	44	6	90	90	NUM
dem-4198	44	7	’s	’s	NOUN
dem-4198	44	8	the	the	DET
dem-4198	44	9	polish	polish	ADJ
dem-4198	44	10	economy	economy	NOUN
dem-4198	44	11	has	have	AUX
dem-4198	44	12	been	be	AUX
dem-4198	44	13	transformed	transform	VERB
dem-4198	44	14	to	to	ADP
dem-4198	44	15	a	a	DET
dem-4198	44	16	market	market	NOUN
dem-4198	44	17	economy	economy	NOUN
dem-4198	44	18	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	45	1	due	due	ADP
dem-4198	45	2	to	to	ADP
dem-4198	45	3	marketization	marketization	NOUN
dem-4198	45	4	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	45	5	stabilization	stabilization	NOUN
dem-4198	45	6	program	program	NOUN
dem-4198	45	7	there	there	PRON
dem-4198	45	8	were	be	VERB
dem-4198	45	9	deep	deep	ADJ
dem-4198	45	10	economic	economic	ADJ
dem-4198	45	11	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	45	12	social	social	ADJ
dem-4198	45	13	changes	change	NOUN
dem-4198	45	14	including	include	VERB
dem-4198	45	15	the	the	DET
dem-4198	45	16	elimination	elimination	NOUN
dem-4198	45	17	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	45	18	the	the	DET
dem-4198	45	19	state	state	NOUN
dem-4198	45	20	control	control	NOUN
dem-4198	45	21	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	45	22	prices	price	NOUN
dem-4198	45	23	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	45	24	liberalizing	liberalize	VERB
dem-4198	45	25	trade	trade	NOUN
dem-4198	45	26	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	45	27	investment	investment	NOUN
dem-4198	45	28	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	45	29	capital	capital	NOUN
dem-4198	45	30	flow	flow	NOUN
dem-4198	45	31	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	45	32	fallenbuchl	fallenbuchl	ADJ
dem-4198	45	33	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	45	34	1994	1994	NUM
dem-4198	45	35	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	45	36	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	46	1	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	46	2	1990	1990	NUM
dem-4198	46	3	-	-	SYM
dem-4198	46	4	1992	1992	NUM
dem-4198	46	5	the	the	DET
dem-4198	46	6	polish	polish	ADJ
dem-4198	46	7	economy	economy	NOUN
dem-4198	46	8	was	be	AUX
dem-4198	46	9	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	46	10	an	an	DET
dem-4198	46	11	early	early	ADJ
dem-4198	46	12	stage	stage	NOUN
dem-4198	46	13	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	46	14	transition	transition	NOUN
dem-4198	46	15	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	46	16	inflationary	inflationary	ADJ
dem-4198	46	17	processes	process	NOUN
dem-4198	46	18	visibly	visibly	ADV
dem-4198	46	19	accelerated	accelerate	VERB
dem-4198	46	20	reaching	reach	VERB
dem-4198	46	21	685.8	685.8	NUM
dem-4198	46	22	%	%	NOUN
dem-4198	46	23	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	46	24	1990	1990	NUM
dem-4198	46	25	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	47	1	therefore	therefore	ADV
dem-4198	47	2	we	we	PRON
dem-4198	47	3	begin	begin	VERB
dem-4198	47	4	our	our	PRON
dem-4198	47	5	analysis	analysis	NOUN
dem-4198	47	6	from	from	ADP
dem-4198	47	7	january	january	PROPN
dem-4198	47	8	1992	1992	NUM
dem-4198	47	9	to	to	PART
dem-4198	47	10	avoid	avoid	VERB
dem-4198	47	11	the	the	DET
dem-4198	47	12	unusual	unusual	ADJ
dem-4198	47	13	effects	effect	NOUN
dem-4198	47	14	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	47	15	hyperinflation	hyperinflation	NOUN
dem-4198	47	16	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	48	1	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	48	2	the	the	DET
dem-4198	48	3	years	year	NOUN
dem-4198	48	4	1993	1993	NUM
dem-4198	48	5	-	-	SYM
dem-4198	48	6	1997	1997	NUM
dem-4198	48	7	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	48	8	monetary	monetary	ADJ
dem-4198	48	9	policy	policy	NOUN
dem-4198	48	10	was	be	AUX
dem-4198	48	11	focused	focus	VERB
dem-4198	48	12	on	on	ADP
dem-4198	48	13	neutralizing	neutralize	VERB
dem-4198	48	14	the	the	DET
dem-4198	48	15	powerful	powerful	ADJ
dem-4198	48	16	inflationary	inflationary	ADJ
dem-4198	48	17	forces	force	NOUN
dem-4198	48	18	discernible	discernible	ADJ
dem-4198	48	19	within	within	ADP
dem-4198	48	20	the	the	DET
dem-4198	48	21	polish	polish	ADJ
dem-4198	48	22	economy	economy	NOUN
dem-4198	48	23	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	48	24	then	then	ADV
dem-4198	48	25	to	to	PART
dem-4198	48	26	achieve	achieve	VERB
dem-4198	48	27	a	a	DET
dem-4198	48	28	further	further	ADJ
dem-4198	48	29	reduction	reduction	NOUN
dem-4198	48	30	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	48	31	inflation1	inflation1	PROPN
dem-4198	48	32	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	49	1	the	the	DET
dem-4198	49	2	next	next	ADJ
dem-4198	49	3	years	year	NOUN
dem-4198	49	4	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	49	5	1998–2004	1998–2004	NUM
dem-4198	49	6	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	49	7	increased	increase	VERB
dem-4198	49	8	poland	poland	PROPN
dem-4198	49	9	's	's	PART
dem-4198	49	10	central	central	ADJ
dem-4198	49	11	bank	bank	NOUN
dem-4198	49	12	independence	independence	NOUN
dem-4198	49	13	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	49	14	monetary	monetary	ADJ
dem-4198	49	15	policy	policy	NOUN
dem-4198	49	16	was	be	AUX
dem-4198	49	17	focused	focus	VERB
dem-4198	49	18	on	on	ADP
dem-4198	49	19	maintaining	maintain	VERB
dem-4198	49	20	price	price	NOUN
dem-4198	49	21	stability	stability	NOUN
dem-4198	49	22	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	49	23	preparation	preparation	NOUN
dem-4198	49	24	for	for	ADP
dem-4198	49	25	integration	integration	NOUN
dem-4198	49	26	with	with	ADP
dem-4198	49	27	the	the	DET
dem-4198	49	28	eu	eu	PROPN
dem-4198	49	29	.	.	PROPN
dem-4198	50	1	after	after	ADP
dem-4198	50	2	2004	2004	NUM
dem-4198	50	3	the	the	DET
dem-4198	50	4	main	main	ADJ
dem-4198	50	5	goal	goal	NOUN
dem-4198	50	6	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	50	7	monetary	monetary	ADJ
dem-4198	50	8	policy	policy	NOUN
dem-4198	50	9	was	be	AUX
dem-4198	50	10	to	to	PART
dem-4198	50	11	achieve	achieve	VERB
dem-4198	50	12	the	the	DET
dem-4198	50	13	maastricht	maastricht	PROPN
dem-4198	50	14	price	price	NOUN
dem-4198	50	15	stability	stability	NOUN
dem-4198	50	16	criterion	criterion	NOUN
dem-4198	50	17	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	50	18	the	the	DET
dem-4198	50	19	coming	come	VERB
dem-4198	50	20	future	future	NOUN
dem-4198	50	21	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	51	1	the	the	DET
dem-4198	51	2	data	datum	NOUN
dem-4198	51	3	previously	previously	ADV
dem-4198	51	4	discussed	discuss	VERB
dem-4198	51	5	are	be	AUX
dem-4198	51	6	presented	present	VERB
dem-4198	51	7	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	51	8	figure	figure	NOUN
dem-4198	51	9	1	1	NUM
dem-4198	51	10	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	52	1	the	the	DET
dem-4198	52	2	vertical	vertical	ADJ
dem-4198	52	3	line	line	NOUN
dem-4198	52	4	indicates	indicate	VERB
dem-4198	52	5	the	the	DET
dem-4198	52	6	limit	limit	NOUN
dem-4198	52	7	between	between	ADP
dem-4198	52	8	sample	sample	NOUN
dem-4198	52	9	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	52	10	forecast	forecast	NOUN
dem-4198	52	11	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	52	12	period	period	NOUN
dem-4198	52	13	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	53	1	figure	figure	NOUN
dem-4198	53	2	1	1	NUM
dem-4198	53	3	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	54	1	the	the	DET
dem-4198	54	2	values	value	NOUN
dem-4198	54	3	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	54	4	logarithms	logarithm	NOUN
dem-4198	54	5	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	54	6	cpi	cpi	PROPN
dem-4198	54	7	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	54	8	seasonally	seasonally	ADV
dem-4198	54	9	adjusted	adjust	VERB
dem-4198	54	10	data	datum	NOUN
dem-4198	54	11	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	54	12	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	55	1	the	the	DET
dem-4198	55	2	vertical	vertical	ADJ
dem-4198	55	3	line	line	NOUN
dem-4198	55	4	indicates	indicate	VERB
dem-4198	55	5	the	the	DET
dem-4198	55	6	limit	limit	NOUN
dem-4198	55	7	between	between	ADP
dem-4198	55	8	sample	sample	NOUN
dem-4198	55	9	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	55	10	forecast	forecast	NOUN
dem-4198	55	11	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	55	12	period	period	NOUN
dem-4198	55	13	using	use	VERB
dem-4198	55	14	bayes	baye	NOUN
dem-4198	55	15	'	'	PART
dem-4198	55	16	rule	rule	NOUN
dem-4198	55	17	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	55	18	monte	monte	PROPN
dem-4198	55	19	carlo	carlo	PROPN
dem-4198	55	20	techniques	technique	NOUN
dem-4198	55	21	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	55	22	we	we	PRON
dem-4198	55	23	calculated	calculate	VERB
dem-4198	55	24	four	four	NUM
dem-4198	55	25	competing	compete	VERB
dem-4198	55	26	bayesian	bayesian	NOUN
dem-4198	55	27	models	model	NOUN
dem-4198	55	28	–	–	PUNCT
dem-4198	55	29	ll	ll	NOUN
dem-4198	55	30	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	55	31	sv	sv	NOUN
dem-4198	55	32	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	55	33	ll	ll	NOUN
dem-4198	55	34	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	55	35	garch(1,1	garch(1,1	NOUN
dem-4198	55	36	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	55	37	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	55	38	ll	ll	NOUN
dem-4198	55	39	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	55	40	garch(1,1)student	garch(1,1)student	NOUN
dem-4198	55	41	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	55	42	ar(2)-sv	ar(2)-sv	NOUN
dem-4198	55	43	–	–	PUNCT
dem-4198	55	44	based	base	VERB
dem-4198	55	45	on	on	ADP
dem-4198	55	46	dataset	dataset	NOUN
dem-4198	55	47	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	55	48	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	55	49	ty	ty	INTJ
dem-4198	55	50	for	for	ADP
dem-4198	55	51	192	192	NUM
dem-4198	55	52	...	...	PUNCT
dem-4198	55	53	,,1	,,1	PUNCT
dem-4198	55	54	=	=	PROPN
dem-4198	55	55	t	t	PROPN
dem-4198	55	56	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	56	1	for	for	ADP
dem-4198	56	2	each	each	DET
dem-4198	56	3	model	model	NOUN
dem-4198	56	4	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	56	5	12	12	NUM
dem-4198	56	6	months	month	NOUN
dem-4198	56	7	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	56	8	2008	2008	NUM
dem-4198	56	9	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	56	10	as	as	ADP
dem-4198	56	11	a	a	DET
dem-4198	56	12	result	result	NOUN
dem-4198	56	13	we	we	PRON
dem-4198	56	14	obtained	obtain	VERB
dem-4198	56	15	predictive	predictive	ADJ
dem-4198	56	16	distributions	distribution	NOUN
dem-4198	56	17	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	56	18	the	the	DET
dem-4198	56	19	following	follow	VERB
dem-4198	56	20	form	form	NOUN
dem-4198	56	21	:	:	PUNCT
dem-4198	56	22	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	56	23	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	56	24	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	56	25	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	57	1	i	i	PRON
dem-4198	57	2	t	t	PROPN
dem-4198	57	3	h	h	PROPN
dem-4198	57	4	myyp	myyp	PROPN
dem-4198	57	5	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	57	6	|192	|192	PROPN
dem-4198	57	7	+	+	NUM
dem-4198	57	8	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	57	9	for	for	ADP
dem-4198	57	10	4	4	NUM
dem-4198	57	11	...	...	PUNCT
dem-4198	57	12	,,1	,,1	PUNCT
dem-4198	58	1	=	=	VERB
dem-4198	58	2	i	i	PROPN
dem-4198	58	3	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	58	4	12	12	NUM
dem-4198	58	5	...	...	PUNCT
dem-4198	58	6	,,1	,,1	PUNCT
dem-4198	59	1	=	=	NOUN
dem-4198	59	2	h	h	NOUN
dem-4198	59	3	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	59	4	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	59	5	11	11	NUM
dem-4198	59	6	)	)	SYM
dem-4198	59	7	1	1	NUM
dem-4198	59	8	nbp	nbp	PROPN
dem-4198	59	9	annual	annual	ADJ
dem-4198	59	10	report	report	NOUN
dem-4198	59	11	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	59	12	http://www.nbp.pl/	http://www.nbp.pl/	VERB
dem-4198	59	13	-0.01	-0.01	NOUN
dem-4198	59	14	0	0	NUM
dem-4198	59	15	0.01	0.01	NUM
dem-4198	59	16	0.02	0.02	NUM
dem-4198	59	17	0.03	0.03	NUM
dem-4198	59	18	0.04	0.04	NUM
dem-4198	59	19	0.05	0.05	NUM
dem-4198	59	20	0.06	0.06	NUM
dem-4198	59	21	0.07	0.07	NUM
dem-4198	59	22	0.08	0.08	NUM
dem-4198	59	23	1992	1992	NUM
dem-4198	59	24	1994	1994	NUM
dem-4198	59	25	1996	1996	NUM
dem-4198	59	26	1998	1998	NUM
dem-4198	59	27	2000	2000	NUM
dem-4198	59	28	2002	2002	NUM
dem-4198	59	29	2004	2004	NUM
dem-4198	59	30	2006	2006	NUM
dem-4198	59	31	2008	2008	NUM
dem-4198	60	1	ln	ln	NOUN
dem-4198	60	2	c	c	NOUN
dem-4198	61	1	p	p	NOUN
dem-4198	61	2	i	i	PRON
dem-4198	61	3	unobserved	unobserved	ADJ
dem-4198	61	4	component	component	NOUN
dem-4198	61	5	model	model	NOUN
dem-4198	61	6	for	for	ADP
dem-4198	61	7	forecasting	forecast	VERB
dem-4198	61	8	polish	polish	ADJ
dem-4198	61	9	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	61	10	125	125	NUM
dem-4198	61	11	where	where	SCONJ
dem-4198	61	12	ll	ll	NOUN
dem-4198	61	13	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	61	14	garch(1,1	garch(1,1	NOUN
dem-4198	61	15	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	61	16	–	–	PUNCT
dem-4198	61	17	1	1	NUM
dem-4198	61	18	m	m	NOUN
dem-4198	61	19	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	61	20	ll	ll	VERB
dem-4198	61	21	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	61	22	garch(1,1)-student	garch(1,1)-student	NOUN
dem-4198	61	23	–	–	PUNCT
dem-4198	61	24	2	2	NUM
dem-4198	61	25	m	m	NOUN
dem-4198	61	26	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	61	27	ll	ll	NOUN
dem-4198	61	28	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	61	29	sv	sv	NOUN
dem-4198	61	30	–	–	PUNCT
dem-4198	61	31	3	3	NUM
dem-4198	61	32	m	m	VERB
dem-4198	61	33	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	61	34	finally	finally	ADV
dem-4198	61	35	ar(2)-sv	ar(2)-sv	VERB
dem-4198	61	36	–	–	PUNCT
dem-4198	61	37	4	4	NUM
dem-4198	61	38	m	m	NOUN
dem-4198	61	39	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	62	1	due	due	ADP
dem-4198	62	2	to	to	ADP
dem-4198	62	3	number	number	NOUN
dem-4198	62	4	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	62	5	models	model	NOUN
dem-4198	62	6	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	62	7	months	month	NOUN
dem-4198	62	8	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	62	9	the	the	DET
dem-4198	62	10	entire	entire	ADJ
dem-4198	62	11	procedure	procedure	NOUN
dem-4198	62	12	should	should	AUX
dem-4198	62	13	be	be	AUX
dem-4198	62	14	performed	perform	VERB
dem-4198	62	15	four	four	NUM
dem-4198	62	16	times	time	NOUN
dem-4198	62	17	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	62	18	giving	give	VERB
dem-4198	62	19	a	a	DET
dem-4198	62	20	total	total	NOUN
dem-4198	62	21	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	62	22	48	48	NUM
dem-4198	62	23	predictive	predictive	ADJ
dem-4198	62	24	distributions	distribution	NOUN
dem-4198	62	25	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	63	1	table	table	NOUN
dem-4198	63	2	1	1	NUM
dem-4198	63	3	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	64	1	the	the	DET
dem-4198	64	2	quantiles	quantile	NOUN
dem-4198	64	3	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	64	4	the	the	DET
dem-4198	64	5	predictive	predictive	ADJ
dem-4198	64	6	distribution	distribution	NOUN
dem-4198	64	7	date	date	NOUN
dem-4198	64	8	model	model	NOUN
dem-4198	64	9	ll	ll	NOUN
dem-4198	64	10	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	64	11	garch(1,1	garch(1,1	NOUN
dem-4198	64	12	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	64	13	ll	ll	NOUN
dem-4198	64	14	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	64	15	garch(1,1)student	garch(1,1)student	NOUN
dem-4198	64	16	ll	ll	NOUN
dem-4198	64	17	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	64	18	sv	sv	NOUN
dem-4198	64	19	ar(2)-sv	ar(2)-sv	NOUN
dem-4198	64	20	2008m01	2008m01	PROPN
dem-4198	65	1	[	[	X
dem-4198	65	2	-0,0584	-0,0584	X
dem-4198	65	3	]	]	X
dem-4198	65	4	0.3429	0.3429	NUM
dem-4198	65	5	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	65	6	0.0367	0.0367	NUM
dem-4198	65	7	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	65	8	0.6564	0.6564	NUM
dem-4198	65	9	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	65	10	0.3535	0.3535	NUM
dem-4198	65	11	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	65	12	0.1118	0.1118	NUM
dem-4198	65	13	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	65	14	0.6075	0.6075	NUM
dem-4198	65	15	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	65	16	0.3214	0.3214	NUM
dem-4198	65	17	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	65	18	0.0894	0.0894	NUM
dem-4198	65	19	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	65	20	0.5398	0.5398	NUM
dem-4198	65	21	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	65	22	0.2825	0.2825	NUM
dem-4198	65	23	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	65	24	0.0437	0.0437	NUM
dem-4198	65	25	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	65	26	0.5265	0.5265	NUM
dem-4198	65	27	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	65	28	2008m02	2008m02	NOUN
dem-4198	66	1	[	[	X
dem-4198	66	2	0,4363	0,4363	X
dem-4198	66	3	]	]	X
dem-4198	66	4	0.3429	0.3429	NUM
dem-4198	66	5	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	66	6	-0.0187	-0.0187	NUM
dem-4198	66	7	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	66	8	0.7177	0.7177	NUM
dem-4198	66	9	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	66	10	0.3535	0.3535	NUM
dem-4198	66	11	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	66	12	0.0791	0.0791	NUM
dem-4198	66	13	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	66	14	0.6499	0.6499	NUM
dem-4198	66	15	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	66	16	0.3214	0.3214	NUM
dem-4198	66	17	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	66	18	0.0742	0.0742	NUM
dem-4198	66	19	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	66	20	0.5513	0.5513	NUM
dem-4198	66	21	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	66	22	0.4195	0.4195	NUM
dem-4198	66	23	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	66	24	0.1303	0.1303	NUM
dem-4198	66	25	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	66	26	0.7037	0.7037	NUM
dem-4198	66	27	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	66	28	2008m03	2008m03	NOUN
dem-4198	67	1	[	[	X
dem-4198	67	2	0,4509	0,4509	X
dem-4198	67	3	]	]	X
dem-4198	67	4	0.3429	0.3429	NUM
dem-4198	67	5	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	67	6	-0.0662	-0.0662	NOUN
dem-4198	67	7	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	67	8	0.7587	0.7587	NUM
dem-4198	67	9	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	67	10	0.3535	0.3535	NUM
dem-4198	67	11	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	67	12	0.0482	0.0482	NUM
dem-4198	67	13	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	67	14	0.6693	0.6693	NUM
dem-4198	67	15	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	67	16	0.3214	0.3214	NUM
dem-4198	67	17	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	67	18	0.0520	0.0520	NUM
dem-4198	67	19	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	67	20	0.5732	0.5732	NUM
dem-4198	67	21	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	67	22	0.3364	0.3364	NUM
dem-4198	67	23	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	67	24	0.0242	0.0242	NUM
dem-4198	67	25	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	67	26	0.6593	0.6593	NUM
dem-4198	67	27	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	67	28	2008m04	2008m04	NUM
dem-4198	68	1	[	[	X
dem-4198	68	2	0,1780	0,1780	X
dem-4198	68	3	]	]	X
dem-4198	68	4	0.3429	0.3429	NUM
dem-4198	68	5	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	68	6	-0.0974	-0.0974	PROPN
dem-4198	68	7	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	68	8	0.8076	0.8076	NUM
dem-4198	68	9	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	68	10	0.3535	0.3535	NUM
dem-4198	68	11	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	68	12	0.0160	0.0160	NUM
dem-4198	68	13	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	68	14	0.7123	0.7123	NUM
dem-4198	68	15	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	68	16	0.3214	0.3214	NUM
dem-4198	68	17	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	68	18	0.0443	0.0443	NUM
dem-4198	68	19	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	68	20	0.5923	0.5923	NUM
dem-4198	68	21	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	68	22	0.3181	0.3181	NUM
dem-4198	68	23	(	(	PUNCT
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dem-4198	68	25	,	,	PUNCT
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dem-4198	68	27	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	68	28	2008m05	2008m05	NUM
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dem-4198	69	5	(	(	PUNCT
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dem-4198	69	7	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	69	8	0.8569	0.8569	NUM
dem-4198	69	9	)	)	PUNCT
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dem-4198	69	11	(	(	PUNCT
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dem-4198	69	13	,	,	PUNCT
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dem-4198	69	15	)	)	PUNCT
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dem-4198	69	17	(	(	PUNCT
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dem-4198	69	19	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	69	20	0.6017	0.6017	NUM
dem-4198	69	21	)	)	PUNCT
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dem-4198	69	23	(	(	PUNCT
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dem-4198	69	25	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	69	26	0.7361	0.7361	NUM
dem-4198	69	27	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	69	28	2008m06	2008m06	NOUN
dem-4198	69	29	[	[	X
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dem-4198	69	32	0.3429	0.3429	NUM
dem-4198	69	33	(	(	PUNCT
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dem-4198	69	35	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	69	36	0.8888	0.8888	NUM
dem-4198	69	37	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	69	38	0.3535	0.3535	NUM
dem-4198	69	39	(	(	PUNCT
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dem-4198	69	41	,	,	PUNCT
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dem-4198	69	43	)	)	PUNCT
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dem-4198	69	45	(	(	PUNCT
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dem-4198	69	47	,	,	PUNCT
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dem-4198	69	49	)	)	PUNCT
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dem-4198	69	51	(	(	PUNCT
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dem-4198	69	53	,	,	PUNCT
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dem-4198	69	55	)	)	PUNCT
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dem-4198	70	5	(	(	PUNCT
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dem-4198	70	7	,	,	PUNCT
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dem-4198	70	9	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	70	10	0.3535	0.3535	NUM
dem-4198	70	11	(	(	PUNCT
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dem-4198	70	13	,	,	PUNCT
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dem-4198	70	17	(	(	PUNCT
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dem-4198	70	19	,	,	PUNCT
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dem-4198	70	21	)	)	PUNCT
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dem-4198	70	23	(	(	PUNCT
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dem-4198	70	25	,	,	PUNCT
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dem-4198	70	27	)	)	PUNCT
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dem-4198	71	3	]	]	X
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dem-4198	71	5	(	(	PUNCT
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dem-4198	71	7	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	71	8	0.9458	0.9458	NUM
dem-4198	71	9	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	71	10	0.3535	0.3535	NUM
dem-4198	71	11	(	(	PUNCT
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dem-4198	71	13	,	,	PUNCT
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dem-4198	71	15	)	)	PUNCT
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dem-4198	71	17	(	(	PUNCT
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dem-4198	71	19	,	,	PUNCT
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dem-4198	71	21	)	)	PUNCT
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dem-4198	71	23	(	(	PUNCT
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dem-4198	71	25	,	,	PUNCT
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dem-4198	71	27	)	)	PUNCT
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dem-4198	72	3	]	]	X
dem-4198	72	4	0.3429	0.3429	NUM
dem-4198	72	5	(	(	PUNCT
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dem-4198	72	7	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	72	8	0.9822	0.9822	NUM
dem-4198	72	9	)	)	PUNCT
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dem-4198	72	11	(	(	PUNCT
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dem-4198	72	13	,	,	PUNCT
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dem-4198	72	15	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	72	16	0.3214	0.3214	NUM
dem-4198	72	17	(	(	PUNCT
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dem-4198	72	19	,	,	PUNCT
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dem-4198	72	21	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	72	22	0.3245	0.3245	NUM
dem-4198	72	23	(	(	PUNCT
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dem-4198	72	25	,	,	PUNCT
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dem-4198	72	27	)	)	PUNCT
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dem-4198	73	5	(	(	PUNCT
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dem-4198	73	7	,	,	PUNCT
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dem-4198	73	11	(	(	PUNCT
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dem-4198	73	13	,	,	PUNCT
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dem-4198	73	17	(	(	PUNCT
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dem-4198	73	19	,	,	PUNCT
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dem-4198	73	21	)	)	PUNCT
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dem-4198	73	23	(	(	PUNCT
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dem-4198	73	25	,	,	PUNCT
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dem-4198	73	27	)	)	PUNCT
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dem-4198	74	5	(	(	PUNCT
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dem-4198	74	7	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	74	8	1.0157	1.0157	NUM
dem-4198	74	9	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	74	10	0.3535	0.3535	NUM
dem-4198	74	11	(	(	PUNCT
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dem-4198	74	13	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	74	14	0.8377	0.8377	NUM
dem-4198	74	15	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	74	16	0.3214	0.3214	NUM
dem-4198	74	17	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	74	18	-0.0341	-0.0341	NOUN
dem-4198	74	19	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	74	20	0.6670	0.6670	NUM
dem-4198	74	21	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	74	22	0.3257	0.3257	NUM
dem-4198	74	23	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	74	24	-0.2442	-0.2442	ADJ
dem-4198	74	25	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	74	26	0.8905	0.8905	NUM
dem-4198	74	27	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	74	28	2008m12	2008m12	PROPN
dem-4198	75	1	[	[	X
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dem-4198	75	3	]	]	X
dem-4198	75	4	0.3429	0.3429	PROPN
dem-4198	75	5	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	75	6	-0.3944	-0.3944	PROPN
dem-4198	75	7	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	75	8	1.0672	1.0672	NUM
dem-4198	75	9	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	75	10	0.3535	0.3535	NUM
dem-4198	75	11	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	75	12	-0.1724	-0.1724	NOUN
dem-4198	75	13	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	75	14	0.8619	0.8619	NUM
dem-4198	75	15	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	75	16	0.3214	0.3214	NUM
dem-4198	75	17	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	75	18	-0.0571	-0.0571	PROPN
dem-4198	75	19	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	75	20	0.7093	0.7093	NUM
dem-4198	75	21	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	75	22	0.3056	0.3056	NUM
dem-4198	75	23	(	(	PUNCT
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dem-4198	75	25	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	75	26	0.9236	0.9236	NUM
dem-4198	75	27	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	75	28	note	note	NOUN
dem-4198	75	29	:	:	PUNCT
dem-4198	75	30	all	all	DET
dem-4198	75	31	data	datum	NOUN
dem-4198	75	32	are	be	AUX
dem-4198	75	33	expressed	express	VERB
dem-4198	75	34	as	as	ADP
dem-4198	75	35	percentage	percentage	NOUN
dem-4198	75	36	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	76	1	table	table	NOUN
dem-4198	76	2	1	1	NUM
dem-4198	76	3	contains	contain	VERB
dem-4198	76	4	a	a	DET
dem-4198	76	5	selection	selection	NOUN
dem-4198	76	6	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	76	7	the	the	DET
dem-4198	76	8	corresponding	correspond	VERB
dem-4198	76	9	out	out	ADV
dem-4198	76	10	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	76	11	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	76	12	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	76	13	sample	sample	NOUN
dem-4198	76	14	forecasting	forecasting	NOUN
dem-4198	76	15	results	result	NOUN
dem-4198	76	16	for	for	ADP
dem-4198	76	17	the	the	DET
dem-4198	76	18	selected	select	VERB
dem-4198	76	19	models	model	NOUN
dem-4198	76	20	with	with	ADP
dem-4198	76	21	constant	constant	ADJ
dem-4198	76	22	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	76	23	time	time	NOUN
dem-4198	76	24	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	76	25	varying	vary	VERB
dem-4198	76	26	mean	mean	NOUN
dem-4198	76	27	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	77	1	the	the	DET
dem-4198	77	2	data	datum	NOUN
dem-4198	77	3	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	77	4	brackets	bracket	NOUN
dem-4198	77	5	represent	represent	VERB
dem-4198	77	6	the	the	DET
dem-4198	77	7	seasonally	seasonally	ADV
dem-4198	77	8	adjusted	adjust	VERB
dem-4198	77	9	consumer	consumer	NOUN
dem-4198	77	10	price	price	NOUN
dem-4198	77	11	index	index	NOUN
dem-4198	77	12	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	78	1	for	for	ADP
dem-4198	78	2	four	four	NUM
dem-4198	78	3	models	model	NOUN
dem-4198	78	4	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	78	5	for	for	ADP
dem-4198	78	6	each	each	DET
dem-4198	78	7	month	month	NOUN
dem-4198	78	8	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	78	9	2008	2008	NUM
dem-4198	78	10	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	78	11	the	the	DET
dem-4198	78	12	medians	median	NOUN
dem-4198	78	13	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	78	14	the	the	DET
dem-4198	78	15	first	first	ADJ
dem-4198	78	16	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	78	17	third	third	ADJ
dem-4198	78	18	quartiles	quartile	NOUN
dem-4198	78	19	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	78	20	on	on	ADP
dem-4198	78	21	the	the	DET
dem-4198	78	22	second	second	ADJ
dem-4198	78	23	line	line	NOUN
dem-4198	78	24	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	78	25	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	78	26	the	the	DET
dem-4198	78	27	predictive	predictive	ADJ
dem-4198	78	28	distributions	distribution	NOUN
dem-4198	78	29	are	be	AUX
dem-4198	78	30	reported	report	VERB
dem-4198	78	31	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	79	1	a	a	DET
dem-4198	79	2	forecast	forecast	NOUN
dem-4198	79	3	will	will	AUX
dem-4198	79	4	be	be	AUX
dem-4198	79	5	said	say	VERB
dem-4198	79	6	to	to	PART
dem-4198	79	7	be	be	AUX
dem-4198	79	8	accurate	accurate	ADJ
dem-4198	79	9	if	if	SCONJ
dem-4198	79	10	true	true	ADJ
dem-4198	79	11	value	value	NOUN
dem-4198	79	12	falls	fall	VERB
dem-4198	79	13	within	within	ADP
dem-4198	79	14	the	the	DET
dem-4198	79	15	interquartile	interquartile	ADJ
dem-4198	79	16	range	range	NOUN
dem-4198	79	17	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	80	1	we	we	PRON
dem-4198	80	2	can	can	AUX
dem-4198	80	3	observe	observe	VERB
dem-4198	80	4	that	that	SCONJ
dem-4198	80	5	during	during	ADP
dem-4198	80	6	2008	2008	NUM
dem-4198	80	7	year	year	NOUN
dem-4198	80	8	the	the	DET
dem-4198	80	9	ll	ll	NOUN
dem-4198	80	10	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	80	11	garch(1,1	garch(1,1	NOUN
dem-4198	80	12	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	80	13	model	model	NOUN
dem-4198	80	14	produces	produce	VERB
dem-4198	80	15	the	the	DET
dem-4198	80	16	most	most	ADV
dem-4198	80	17	accurate	accurate	ADJ
dem-4198	80	18	predictive	predictive	ADJ
dem-4198	80	19	distribution	distribution	NOUN
dem-4198	80	20	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	80	21	cpi	cpi	PROPN
dem-4198	80	22	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	81	1	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	81	2	this	this	DET
dem-4198	81	3	case	case	NOUN
dem-4198	81	4	the	the	DET
dem-4198	81	5	true	true	ADJ
dem-4198	81	6	values	value	NOUN
dem-4198	81	7	fall	fall	VERB
dem-4198	81	8	within	within	ADP
dem-4198	81	9	the	the	DET
dem-4198	81	10	interquartile	interquartile	ADJ
dem-4198	81	11	range	range	NOUN
dem-4198	81	12	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	81	13	ten	ten	NUM
dem-4198	81	14	cases	case	NOUN
dem-4198	81	15	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	81	16	twelve	twelve	NUM
dem-4198	81	17	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	82	1	for	for	ADP
dem-4198	82	2	the	the	DET
dem-4198	82	3	other	other	ADJ
dem-4198	82	4	models	model	NOUN
dem-4198	82	5	i.e.	i.e.	X
dem-4198	82	6	the	the	DET
dem-4198	82	7	llgarch(1,1)-student	llgarch(1,1)-student	NOUN
dem-4198	82	8	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	82	9	ll	ll	NOUN
dem-4198	82	10	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	82	11	sv	sv	NOUN
dem-4198	82	12	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	82	13	ar(2)-sv	ar(2)-sv	PROPN
dem-4198	82	14	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	82	15	true	true	ADJ
dem-4198	82	16	values	value	NOUN
dem-4198	82	17	lie	lie	VERB
dem-4198	82	18	between	between	ADP
dem-4198	82	19	the	the	DET
dem-4198	82	20	first	first	ADJ
dem-4198	82	21	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	82	22	third	third	ADJ
dem-4198	82	23	quartiles	quartile	NOUN
dem-4198	82	24	only	only	ADV
dem-4198	82	25	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	82	26	eight	eight	NUM
dem-4198	82	27	cases	case	NOUN
dem-4198	82	28	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	82	29	twelve	twelve	NUM
dem-4198	82	30	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	83	1	for	for	ADP
dem-4198	83	2	the	the	DET
dem-4198	83	3	ll	ll	NOUN
dem-4198	83	4	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	83	5	garch(1,1	garch(1,1	NOUN
dem-4198	83	6	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	83	7	model	model	NOUN
dem-4198	83	8	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	83	9	when	when	SCONJ
dem-4198	83	10	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	83	11	forecast	forecast	NOUN
dem-4198	83	12	is	be	AUX
dem-4198	83	13	an	an	DET
dem-4198	83	14	accurate	accurate	ADJ
dem-4198	83	15	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	83	16	the	the	DET
dem-4198	83	17	true	true	ADJ
dem-4198	83	18	values	value	NOUN
dem-4198	83	19	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	83	20	cpi	cpi	PROPN
dem-4198	83	21	lie	lie	AUX
dem-4198	83	22	mostly	mostly	ADV
dem-4198	83	23	jacek	jacek	PROPN
dem-4198	83	24	kwiatkowski	kwiatkowski	PROPN
dem-4198	83	25	126	126	NUM
dem-4198	83	26	between	between	ADP
dem-4198	83	27	the	the	DET
dem-4198	83	28	median	median	ADJ
dem-4198	83	29	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	83	30	third	third	ADJ
dem-4198	83	31	quartile	quartile	NOUN
dem-4198	83	32	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	84	1	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	84	2	other	other	ADJ
dem-4198	84	3	cases	case	NOUN
dem-4198	84	4	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	84	5	predictive	predictive	ADJ
dem-4198	84	6	densities	density	NOUN
dem-4198	84	7	underestimate	underestimate	VERB
dem-4198	84	8	or	or	CCONJ
dem-4198	84	9	overestimate	overestimate	VERB
dem-4198	84	10	the	the	DET
dem-4198	84	11	actual	actual	ADJ
dem-4198	84	12	observation	observation	NOUN
dem-4198	84	13	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	84	14	both	both	PRON
dem-4198	84	15	for	for	ADP
dem-4198	84	16	the	the	DET
dem-4198	84	17	models	model	NOUN
dem-4198	84	18	with	with	ADP
dem-4198	84	19	the	the	DET
dem-4198	84	20	constant	constant	ADJ
dem-4198	84	21	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	84	22	time	time	NOUN
dem-4198	84	23	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	84	24	varying	vary	VERB
dem-4198	84	25	mean	mean	NOUN
dem-4198	84	26	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	85	1	it	it	PRON
dem-4198	85	2	is	be	AUX
dem-4198	85	3	also	also	ADV
dem-4198	85	4	worthwhile	worthwhile	ADJ
dem-4198	85	5	to	to	PART
dem-4198	85	6	check	check	VERB
dem-4198	85	7	formally	formally	ADV
dem-4198	85	8	the	the	DET
dem-4198	85	9	accuracy	accuracy	NOUN
dem-4198	85	10	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	85	11	point	point	NOUN
dem-4198	85	12	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
dem-4198	85	13	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	85	14	the	the	DET
dem-4198	85	15	mentioned	mention	VERB
dem-4198	85	16	above	above	ADP
dem-4198	85	17	models	model	NOUN
dem-4198	85	18	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	86	1	we	we	PRON
dem-4198	86	2	measure	measure	VERB
dem-4198	86	3	forecast	forecast	NOUN
dem-4198	86	4	accuracy	accuracy	NOUN
dem-4198	86	5	using	use	VERB
dem-4198	86	6	two	two	NUM
dem-4198	86	7	exact	exact	ADJ
dem-4198	86	8	finitesample	finitesample	NOUN
dem-4198	86	9	test	test	NOUN
dem-4198	86	10	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	86	11	namely	namely	ADV
dem-4198	86	12	:	:	PUNCT
dem-4198	86	13	the	the	DET
dem-4198	86	14	sign	sign	NOUN
dem-4198	86	15	test	test	NOUN
dem-4198	86	16	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	86	17	wilcoxon	wilcoxon	PROPN
dem-4198	86	18	signed	sign	VERB
dem-4198	86	19	rank	rank	NOUN
dem-4198	86	20	test	test	NOUN
dem-4198	86	21	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	86	22	see	see	VERB
dem-4198	86	23	diebold	diebold	NOUN
dem-4198	86	24	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	86	25	mariano	mariano	ADJ
dem-4198	86	26	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	86	27	1995	1995	NUM
dem-4198	86	28	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	86	29	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	87	1	these	these	DET
dem-4198	87	2	tests	test	NOUN
dem-4198	87	3	allow	allow	VERB
dem-4198	87	4	us	we	PRON
dem-4198	87	5	to	to	PART
dem-4198	87	6	analyze	analyze	VERB
dem-4198	87	7	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	87	8	statistical	statistical	ADJ
dem-4198	87	9	differences	difference	NOUN
dem-4198	87	10	between	between	ADP
dem-4198	87	11	predictions	prediction	NOUN
dem-4198	87	12	generated	generate	VERB
dem-4198	87	13	by	by	ADP
dem-4198	87	14	competing	compete	VERB
dem-4198	87	15	specifications	specification	NOUN
dem-4198	87	16	when	when	SCONJ
dem-4198	87	17	only	only	ADV
dem-4198	87	18	a	a	DET
dem-4198	87	19	small	small	ADJ
dem-4198	87	20	number	number	NOUN
dem-4198	87	21	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	87	22	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
dem-4198	87	23	are	be	AUX
dem-4198	87	24	available	available	ADJ
dem-4198	87	25	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	88	1	we	we	PRON
dem-4198	88	2	test	test	VERB
dem-4198	88	3	the	the	DET
dem-4198	88	4	null	null	ADJ
dem-4198	88	5	hypothesis	hypothesis	NOUN
dem-4198	88	6	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	88	7	that	that	PRON
dem-4198	88	8	the	the	DET
dem-4198	88	9	forecasting	forecasting	NOUN
dem-4198	88	10	performance	performance	NOUN
dem-4198	88	11	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	88	12	the	the	DET
dem-4198	88	13	two	two	NUM
dem-4198	88	14	different	different	ADJ
dem-4198	88	15	models	model	NOUN
dem-4198	88	16	is	be	AUX
dem-4198	88	17	equally	equally	ADV
dem-4198	88	18	well	well	ADV
dem-4198	88	19	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	88	20	poor	poor	ADJ
dem-4198	88	21	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	88	22	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	89	1	the	the	DET
dem-4198	89	2	results	result	NOUN
dem-4198	89	3	are	be	AUX
dem-4198	89	4	summarized	summarize	VERB
dem-4198	89	5	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	89	6	the	the	DET
dem-4198	89	7	table	table	NOUN
dem-4198	89	8	2	2	NUM
dem-4198	89	9	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	89	10	which	which	PRON
dem-4198	89	11	includes	include	VERB
dem-4198	89	12	p	p	NOUN
dem-4198	89	13	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	89	14	values	value	NOUN
dem-4198	89	15	from	from	ADP
dem-4198	89	16	the	the	DET
dem-4198	89	17	sign	sign	NOUN
dem-4198	89	18	test	test	NOUN
dem-4198	89	19	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	89	20	the	the	DET
dem-4198	89	21	first	first	ADJ
dem-4198	89	22	line	line	NOUN
dem-4198	89	23	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	89	24	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	89	25	wilcoxon	wilcoxon	PROPN
dem-4198	89	26	signed	sign	VERB
dem-4198	89	27	rank	rank	NOUN
dem-4198	89	28	test	test	NOUN
dem-4198	89	29	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	89	30	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	89	31	the	the	DET
dem-4198	89	32	second	second	ADJ
dem-4198	89	33	line	line	NOUN
dem-4198	89	34	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	89	35	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	90	1	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	90	2	our	our	PRON
dem-4198	90	3	case	case	NOUN
dem-4198	90	4	we	we	PRON
dem-4198	90	5	use	use	VERB
dem-4198	90	6	quadratic	quadratic	ADJ
dem-4198	90	7	loss	loss	NOUN
dem-4198	90	8	function	function	NOUN
dem-4198	90	9	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	91	1	the	the	DET
dem-4198	91	2	observed	observed	ADJ
dem-4198	91	3	loss	loss	NOUN
dem-4198	91	4	differentials	differential	NOUN
dem-4198	91	5	are	be	AUX
dem-4198	91	6	free	free	ADJ
dem-4198	91	7	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	91	8	serial	serial	ADJ
dem-4198	91	9	correlation	correlation	NOUN
dem-4198	91	10	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	92	1	table	table	NOUN
dem-4198	92	2	2	2	NUM
dem-4198	92	3	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	92	4	results	result	NOUN
dem-4198	92	5	from	from	ADP
dem-4198	92	6	the	the	DET
dem-4198	92	7	sign	sign	NOUN
dem-4198	92	8	test	test	NOUN
dem-4198	92	9	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	92	10	wilcoxon	wilcoxon	PROPN
dem-4198	92	11	signed	sign	VERB
dem-4198	92	12	rank	rank	PROPN
dem-4198	92	13	test	test	NOUN
dem-4198	92	14	model	model	PROPN
dem-4198	92	15	model	model	PROPN
dem-4198	92	16	ll	ll	NOUN
dem-4198	92	17	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	92	18	garch(1,1	garch(1,1	NOUN
dem-4198	92	19	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	92	20	ll	ll	NOUN
dem-4198	92	21	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	92	22	garch(1,1)student	garch(1,1)student	NOUN
dem-4198	92	23	ll	ll	NOUN
dem-4198	92	24	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	92	25	sv	sv	PROPN
dem-4198	92	26	ar(2)-sv	ar(2)-sv	PROPN
dem-4198	92	27	llgarch(1,1	llgarch(1,1	PROPN
dem-4198	92	28	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	92	29	0.7744	0.7744	NUM
dem-4198	92	30	0.8501	0.8501	NUM
dem-4198	92	31	1.0000	1.0000	NUM
dem-4198	92	32	0.6772	0.6772	NUM
dem-4198	92	33	1.0000	1.0000	NUM
dem-4198	92	34	0.9697	0.9697	NUM
dem-4198	92	35	llgarch(1,1)student	llgarch(1,1)student	NOUN
dem-4198	92	36	0.7744	0.7744	NUM
dem-4198	92	37	0.7910	0.7910	NUM
dem-4198	92	38	1.0000	1.0000	NUM
dem-4198	92	39	0.9697	0.9697	NUM
dem-4198	92	40	ll	ll	NOUN
dem-4198	92	41	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	92	42	sv	sv	NOUN
dem-4198	92	43	0.7744	0.7744	NUM
dem-4198	92	44	0.1514	0.1514	NUM
dem-4198	92	45	ar(2)-sv	ar(2)-sv	NOUN
dem-4198	92	46	note	note	NOUN
dem-4198	92	47	:	:	PUNCT
dem-4198	92	48	the	the	DET
dem-4198	92	49	first	first	ADJ
dem-4198	92	50	line	line	NOUN
dem-4198	92	51	denotes	denote	VERB
dem-4198	92	52	p	p	NOUN
dem-4198	92	53	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	92	54	values	value	NOUN
dem-4198	92	55	from	from	ADP
dem-4198	92	56	the	the	DET
dem-4198	92	57	sign	sign	NOUN
dem-4198	92	58	test	test	NOUN
dem-4198	92	59	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	93	1	the	the	DET
dem-4198	93	2	second	second	ADJ
dem-4198	93	3	line	line	NOUN
dem-4198	93	4	includes	include	VERB
dem-4198	93	5	p	p	NOUN
dem-4198	93	6	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	93	7	values	value	NOUN
dem-4198	93	8	from	from	ADP
dem-4198	93	9	the	the	DET
dem-4198	93	10	wilcoxon	wilcoxon	NOUN
dem-4198	93	11	signed	sign	VERB
dem-4198	93	12	rank	rank	NOUN
dem-4198	93	13	test	test	NOUN
dem-4198	93	14	according	accord	VERB
dem-4198	93	15	to	to	ADP
dem-4198	93	16	the	the	DET
dem-4198	93	17	results	result	NOUN
dem-4198	93	18	given	give	VERB
dem-4198	93	19	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	93	20	the	the	DET
dem-4198	93	21	table	table	NOUN
dem-4198	93	22	2	2	NUM
dem-4198	93	23	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	93	24	we	we	PRON
dem-4198	93	25	do	do	AUX
dem-4198	93	26	not	not	PART
dem-4198	93	27	reject	reject	VERB
dem-4198	93	28	at	at	ADP
dem-4198	93	29	conventional	conventional	ADJ
dem-4198	93	30	levels	level	NOUN
dem-4198	93	31	the	the	DET
dem-4198	93	32	hypothesis	hypothesis	NOUN
dem-4198	93	33	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	93	34	equal	equal	ADJ
dem-4198	93	35	expected	expect	VERB
dem-4198	93	36	quadratic	quadratic	ADJ
dem-4198	93	37	loss	loss	NOUN
dem-4198	93	38	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	94	1	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	94	2	other	other	ADJ
dem-4198	94	3	words	word	NOUN
dem-4198	94	4	there	there	PRON
dem-4198	94	5	is	be	VERB
dem-4198	94	6	no	no	DET
dem-4198	94	7	significant	significant	ADJ
dem-4198	94	8	difference	difference	NOUN
dem-4198	94	9	between	between	ADP
dem-4198	94	10	the	the	DET
dem-4198	94	11	accuracy	accuracy	NOUN
dem-4198	94	12	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	94	13	point	point	NOUN
dem-4198	94	14	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
dem-4198	94	15	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	94	16	the	the	DET
dem-4198	94	17	competing	compete	VERB
dem-4198	94	18	specifications	specification	NOUN
dem-4198	94	19	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	95	1	the	the	DET
dem-4198	95	2	standard	standard	ADJ
dem-4198	95	3	ar(2)-sv	ar(2)-sv	NOUN
dem-4198	95	4	model	model	NOUN
dem-4198	95	5	is	be	AUX
dem-4198	95	6	not	not	PART
dem-4198	95	7	a	a	DET
dem-4198	95	8	significantly	significantly	ADV
dem-4198	95	9	worse	bad	ADJ
dem-4198	95	10	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	95	11	better	well	ADJ
dem-4198	95	12	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	95	13	predictor	predictor	NOUN
dem-4198	95	14	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	95	15	the	the	DET
dem-4198	95	16	polish	polish	ADJ
dem-4198	95	17	cpi	cpi	PROPN
dem-4198	95	18	than	than	ADP
dem-4198	95	19	the	the	DET
dem-4198	95	20	ll	ll	PROPN
dem-4198	95	21	model	model	NOUN
dem-4198	95	22	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	96	1	it	it	PRON
dem-4198	96	2	is	be	AUX
dem-4198	96	3	well	well	ADV
dem-4198	96	4	known	know	VERB
dem-4198	96	5	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	96	6	that	that	SCONJ
dem-4198	96	7	polish	polish	ADJ
dem-4198	96	8	monetary	monetary	ADJ
dem-4198	96	9	authorities	authority	NOUN
dem-4198	96	10	conduct	conduct	VERB
dem-4198	96	11	the	the	DET
dem-4198	96	12	policy	policy	NOUN
dem-4198	96	13	under	under	ADP
dem-4198	96	14	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	96	15	targeting	target	VERB
dem-4198	96	16	regime	regime	NOUN
dem-4198	96	17	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	96	18	with	with	ADP
dem-4198	96	19	the	the	DET
dem-4198	96	20	medium	medium	ADJ
dem-4198	96	21	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	96	22	long	long	ADJ
dem-4198	96	23	term	term	NOUN
dem-4198	96	24	target	target	NOUN
dem-4198	96	25	for	for	ADP
dem-4198	96	26	cpi	cpi	PROPN
dem-4198	96	27	index	index	NOUN
dem-4198	96	28	fixed	fix	VERB
dem-4198	96	29	at	at	ADP
dem-4198	96	30	2.5	2.5	NUM
dem-4198	96	31	%	%	NOUN
dem-4198	96	32	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	96	33	with	with	ADP
dem-4198	96	34	one	one	NUM
dem-4198	96	35	percentage	percentage	NOUN
dem-4198	96	36	point	point	NOUN
dem-4198	96	37	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	96	38	accepted	accept	VERB
dem-4198	96	39	deviation	deviation	NOUN
dem-4198	96	40	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	97	1	therefore	therefore	ADV
dem-4198	97	2	it	it	PRON
dem-4198	97	3	is	be	AUX
dem-4198	97	4	interesting	interesting	ADJ
dem-4198	97	5	to	to	PART
dem-4198	97	6	consider	consider	VERB
dem-4198	97	7	what	what	PRON
dem-4198	97	8	is	be	AUX
dem-4198	97	9	the	the	DET
dem-4198	97	10	posterior	posterior	ADJ
dem-4198	97	11	probability	probability	NOUN
dem-4198	97	12	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	97	13	the	the	DET
dem-4198	97	14	hypothesis	hypothesis	NOUN
dem-4198	97	15	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	97	16	that	that	SCONJ
dem-4198	97	17	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	97	18	will	will	AUX
dem-4198	97	19	stay	stay	VERB
dem-4198	97	20	inside	inside	ADP
dem-4198	97	21	the	the	DET
dem-4198	97	22	targeting	targeting	NOUN
dem-4198	97	23	bound	bind	VERB
dem-4198	97	24	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	97	25	how	how	SCONJ
dem-4198	97	26	this	this	DET
dem-4198	97	27	posterior	posterior	ADJ
dem-4198	97	28	probability	probability	NOUN
dem-4198	97	29	changes	change	NOUN
dem-4198	97	30	as	as	SCONJ
dem-4198	97	31	the	the	DET
dem-4198	97	32	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
dem-4198	97	33	horizon	horizon	NOUN
dem-4198	97	34	grows	grow	VERB
dem-4198	97	35	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	98	1	bayesian	bayesian	NOUN
dem-4198	98	2	methodology	methodology	NOUN
dem-4198	98	3	provides	provide	VERB
dem-4198	98	4	a	a	DET
dem-4198	98	5	direct	direct	ADJ
dem-4198	98	6	way	way	NOUN
dem-4198	98	7	to	to	PART
dem-4198	98	8	predict	predict	VERB
dem-4198	98	9	different	different	ADJ
dem-4198	98	10	scenarios	scenario	NOUN
dem-4198	98	11	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	98	12	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	98	13	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	99	1	the	the	DET
dem-4198	99	2	predictive	predictive	ADJ
dem-4198	99	3	distribution	distribution	NOUN
dem-4198	99	4	depicts	depict	VERB
dem-4198	99	5	the	the	DET
dem-4198	99	6	probability	probability	NOUN
dem-4198	99	7	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	99	8	various	various	ADJ
dem-4198	99	9	outcomes	outcome	NOUN
dem-4198	99	10	for	for	ADP
dem-4198	99	11	cpi	cpi	PROPN
dem-4198	99	12	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	99	13	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	99	14	the	the	DET
dem-4198	99	15	future	future	NOUN
dem-4198	99	16	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	99	17	allows	allow	VERB
dem-4198	99	18	to	to	PART
dem-4198	99	19	assess	assess	VERB
dem-4198	99	20	uncertainty	uncertainty	NOUN
dem-4198	99	21	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	99	22	monetary	monetary	ADJ
dem-4198	99	23	policy	policy	NOUN
dem-4198	99	24	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	100	1	unlike	unlike	ADP
dem-4198	100	2	classical	classical	ADJ
dem-4198	100	3	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	100	4	sampletheory	sampletheory	NOUN
dem-4198	100	5	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	100	6	approach	approach	NOUN
dem-4198	100	7	we	we	PRON
dem-4198	100	8	do	do	AUX
dem-4198	100	9	not	not	PART
dem-4198	100	10	need	need	VERB
dem-4198	100	11	carry	carry	VERB
dem-4198	100	12	out	out	ADP
dem-4198	100	13	stochastic	stochastic	ADJ
dem-4198	100	14	simulations	simulation	NOUN
dem-4198	100	15	since	since	SCONJ
dem-4198	100	16	our	our	PRON
dem-4198	100	17	unobserved	unobserved	ADJ
dem-4198	100	18	component	component	NOUN
dem-4198	100	19	model	model	NOUN
dem-4198	100	20	for	for	ADP
dem-4198	100	21	forecasting	forecast	VERB
dem-4198	100	22	polish	polish	ADJ
dem-4198	100	23	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	100	24	127	127	NUM
dem-4198	100	25	approach	approach	NOUN
dem-4198	100	26	follows	follow	VERB
dem-4198	100	27	from	from	ADP
dem-4198	100	28	the	the	DET
dem-4198	100	29	basic	basic	ADJ
dem-4198	100	30	rules	rule	NOUN
dem-4198	100	31	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	100	32	probability	probability	NOUN
dem-4198	100	33	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	101	1	tables	table	NOUN
dem-4198	101	2	3	3	NUM
dem-4198	101	3	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	101	4	4	4	NUM
dem-4198	101	5	present	present	VERB
dem-4198	101	6	some	some	DET
dem-4198	101	7	characteristics	characteristic	NOUN
dem-4198	101	8	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	101	9	the	the	DET
dem-4198	101	10	probability	probability	NOUN
dem-4198	101	11	distribution	distribution	NOUN
dem-4198	101	12	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	101	13	the	the	DET
dem-4198	101	14	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	101	15	path	path	NOUN
dem-4198	101	16	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	102	1	table	table	NOUN
dem-4198	102	2	3	3	NUM
dem-4198	102	3	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	102	4	posterior	posterior	ADJ
dem-4198	102	5	probability	probability	NOUN
dem-4198	102	6	that	that	SCONJ
dem-4198	102	7	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	102	8	will	will	AUX
dem-4198	102	9	remain	remain	VERB
dem-4198	102	10	within	within	ADP
dem-4198	102	11	the	the	DET
dem-4198	102	12	targeting	target	VERB
dem-4198	102	13	regime	regime	NOUN
dem-4198	102	14	date	date	NOUN
dem-4198	102	15	probability	probability	NOUN
dem-4198	102	16	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	102	17	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	102	18	ll	ll	NOUN
dem-4198	102	19	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	102	20	garch(1,1	garch(1,1	NOUN
dem-4198	102	21	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	102	22	ll	ll	NOUN
dem-4198	102	23	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	102	24	garch(1,1)student	garch(1,1)student	NOUN
dem-4198	102	25	ll	ll	NOUN
dem-4198	102	26	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	102	27	sv	sv	NOUN
dem-4198	102	28	ar(2)-sv	ar(2)-sv	PROPN
dem-4198	102	29	within	within	ADP
dem-4198	102	30	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	102	31	1.5	1.5	NUM
dem-4198	102	32	%	%	NOUN
dem-4198	102	33	;	;	PUNCT
dem-4198	102	34	3.5	3.5	NUM
dem-4198	102	35	%	%	NOUN
dem-4198	102	36	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	102	37	within	within	ADP
dem-4198	102	38	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	102	39	1.5	1.5	NUM
dem-4198	102	40	%	%	NOUN
dem-4198	102	41	;	;	PUNCT
dem-4198	102	42	3.5	3.5	NUM
dem-4198	102	43	%	%	NOUN
dem-4198	102	44	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	102	45	within	within	ADP
dem-4198	102	46	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	102	47	1.5	1.5	NUM
dem-4198	102	48	%	%	NOUN
dem-4198	102	49	;	;	PUNCT
dem-4198	102	50	3.5	3.5	NUM
dem-4198	102	51	%	%	NOUN
dem-4198	102	52	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	102	53	within	within	ADP
dem-4198	102	54	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	102	55	1.5	1.5	NUM
dem-4198	102	56	%	%	NOUN
dem-4198	102	57	;	;	PUNCT
dem-4198	102	58	3.5	3.5	NUM
dem-4198	102	59	%	%	NOUN
dem-4198	102	60	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	103	1	2008m01	2008m01	NOUN
dem-4198	103	2	0.0052	0.0052	NUM
dem-4198	104	1	0.0052	0.0052	NUM
dem-4198	104	2	0.0104	0.0104	NUM
dem-4198	104	3	0.0052	0.0052	NUM
dem-4198	104	4	2008m02	2008m02	NUM
dem-4198	104	5	0.0833	0.0833	NUM
dem-4198	104	6	0.0365	0.0365	NUM
dem-4198	104	7	0.0417	0.0417	NUM
dem-4198	104	8	0.0208	0.0208	NUM
dem-4198	104	9	2008m03	2008m03	NUM
dem-4198	104	10	0.2083	0.2083	NUM
dem-4198	104	11	0.0833	0.0833	NUM
dem-4198	104	12	0.0938	0.0938	NUM
dem-4198	104	13	0.1198	0.1198	NUM
dem-4198	104	14	2008m04	2008m04	NUM
dem-4198	104	15	0.2656	0.2656	NUM
dem-4198	104	16	0.1719	0.1719	NUM
dem-4198	104	17	0.1771	0.1771	NUM
dem-4198	104	18	0.2292	0.2292	NUM
dem-4198	104	19	2008m05	2008m05	NUM
dem-4198	104	20	0.3333	0.3333	NUM
dem-4198	104	21	0.2240	0.2240	NUM
dem-4198	104	22	0.2760	0.2760	NUM
dem-4198	104	23	0.3177	0.3177	NUM
dem-4198	104	24	2008m06	2008m06	NUM
dem-4198	104	25	0.3385	0.3385	NUM
dem-4198	104	26	0.2552	0.2552	NUM
dem-4198	104	27	0.3021	0.3021	NUM
dem-4198	104	28	0.3438	0.3438	NUM
dem-4198	104	29	2008m07	2008m07	NUM
dem-4198	104	30	0.4010	0.4010	NUM
dem-4198	104	31	0.3333	0.3333	NUM
dem-4198	104	32	0.4479	0.4479	NUM
dem-4198	104	33	0.4063	0.4063	NUM
dem-4198	104	34	2008m08	2008m08	NUM
dem-4198	104	35	0.3854	0.3854	NUM
dem-4198	104	36	0.2813	0.2813	NUM
dem-4198	104	37	0.3438	0.3438	NUM
dem-4198	104	38	0.3802	0.3802	NUM
dem-4198	104	39	2008m09	2008m09	NOUN
dem-4198	104	40	0.3906	0.3906	NUM
dem-4198	104	41	0.2865	0.2865	NUM
dem-4198	104	42	0.3542	0.3542	NUM
dem-4198	105	1	0.3750	0.3750	NUM
dem-4198	105	2	2008m10	2008m10	NUM
dem-4198	105	3	0.4167	0.4167	NUM
dem-4198	105	4	0.3021	0.3021	NUM
dem-4198	105	5	0.3958	0.3958	NUM
dem-4198	105	6	0.3958	0.3958	NUM
dem-4198	105	7	2008m11	2008m11	NUM
dem-4198	105	8	0.4635	0.4635	NUM
dem-4198	105	9	0.3385	0.3385	NUM
dem-4198	105	10	0.4635	0.4635	NUM
dem-4198	105	11	0.4323	0.4323	NUM
dem-4198	105	12	2008m12	2008m12	NUM
dem-4198	105	13	0.4688	0.4688	NUM
dem-4198	105	14	0.3281	0.3281	NUM
dem-4198	105	15	0.4635	0.4635	NUM
dem-4198	105	16	0.4271	0.4271	NUM
dem-4198	105	17	table	table	NOUN
dem-4198	105	18	4	4	NUM
dem-4198	105	19	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	105	20	posterior	posterior	ADJ
dem-4198	105	21	probability	probability	NOUN
dem-4198	105	22	that	that	SCONJ
dem-4198	105	23	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	105	24	will	will	AUX
dem-4198	105	25	be	be	AUX
dem-4198	105	26	above	above	ADP
dem-4198	105	27	the	the	DET
dem-4198	105	28	upper	upper	ADJ
dem-4198	105	29	bound	bind	VERB
dem-4198	105	30	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	105	31	targeting	target	VERB
dem-4198	105	32	regime	regime	NOUN
dem-4198	105	33	date	date	NOUN
dem-4198	105	34	probability	probability	NOUN
dem-4198	105	35	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	105	36	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	105	37	ll	ll	NOUN
dem-4198	105	38	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	105	39	garch(1,1	garch(1,1	NOUN
dem-4198	105	40	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	105	41	ll	ll	NOUN
dem-4198	105	42	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	105	43	garch(1,1)student	garch(1,1)student	NOUN
dem-4198	105	44	ll	ll	NOUN
dem-4198	105	45	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	105	46	sv	sv	NOUN
dem-4198	105	47	ar(2)-sv	ar(2)-sv	NOUN
dem-4198	105	48	above	above	ADP
dem-4198	105	49	3.5	3.5	NUM
dem-4198	105	50	%	%	NOUN
dem-4198	105	51	above	above	ADP
dem-4198	105	52	3.5	3.5	NUM
dem-4198	105	53	%	%	NOUN
dem-4198	105	54	above	above	ADP
dem-4198	105	55	3.5	3.5	NUM
dem-4198	105	56	%	%	NOUN
dem-4198	105	57	above	above	ADP
dem-4198	105	58	3.5	3.5	NUM
dem-4198	105	59	%	%	NOUN
dem-4198	106	1	2008m01	2008m01	NUM
dem-4198	106	2	0.9948	0.9948	NUM
dem-4198	106	3	0.9948	0.9948	NUM
dem-4198	106	4	0.9896	0.9896	NUM
dem-4198	106	5	0.9948	0.9948	NUM
dem-4198	106	6	2008m02	2008m02	NUM
dem-4198	106	7	0.9167	0.9167	NUM
dem-4198	106	8	0.9635	0.9635	NUM
dem-4198	106	9	0.9583	0.9583	NUM
dem-4198	106	10	0.9792	0.9792	NUM
dem-4198	106	11	2008m03	2008m03	NOUN
dem-4198	106	12	0.7917	0.7917	NUM
dem-4198	106	13	0.9167	0.9167	NUM
dem-4198	106	14	0.9063	0.9063	NUM
dem-4198	106	15	0.8802	0.8802	NUM
dem-4198	106	16	2008m04	2008m04	NUM
dem-4198	106	17	0.7344	0.7344	NUM
dem-4198	107	1	0.8281	0.8281	NUM
dem-4198	107	2	0.8229	0.8229	NUM
dem-4198	107	3	0.7708	0.7708	NUM
dem-4198	108	1	2008m05	2008m05	NUM
dem-4198	108	2	0.6667	0.6667	NUM
dem-4198	108	3	0.7760	0.7760	NUM
dem-4198	108	4	0.7240	0.7240	NUM
dem-4198	108	5	0.6823	0.6823	NUM
dem-4198	108	6	2008m06	2008m06	NUM
dem-4198	108	7	0.6615	0.6615	NUM
dem-4198	108	8	0.7448	0.7448	NUM
dem-4198	108	9	0.6979	0.6979	NUM
dem-4198	108	10	0.6563	0.6563	NUM
dem-4198	108	11	2008m07	2008m07	NUM
dem-4198	108	12	0.5990	0.5990	NUM
dem-4198	108	13	0.6667	0.6667	NUM
dem-4198	108	14	0.5521	0.5521	NUM
dem-4198	108	15	0.5938	0.5938	NUM
dem-4198	108	16	2008m08	2008m08	NUM
dem-4198	108	17	0.6146	0.6146	NUM
dem-4198	108	18	0.7188	0.7188	NUM
dem-4198	108	19	0.6563	0.6563	NUM
dem-4198	108	20	0.6198	0.6198	NUM
dem-4198	108	21	2008m09	2008m09	NUM
dem-4198	108	22	0.6094	0.6094	NUM
dem-4198	108	23	0.7135	0.7135	NUM
dem-4198	108	24	0.6458	0.6458	NUM
dem-4198	108	25	0.6250	0.6250	NUM
dem-4198	108	26	2008m10	2008m10	NUM
dem-4198	108	27	0.5833	0.5833	NUM
dem-4198	108	28	0.6979	0.6979	NUM
dem-4198	108	29	0.6042	0.6042	NUM
dem-4198	108	30	0.6042	0.6042	NUM
dem-4198	108	31	2008m11	2008m11	NUM
dem-4198	108	32	0.5365	0.5365	NUM
dem-4198	108	33	0.6615	0.6615	NUM
dem-4198	108	34	0.5365	0.5365	NUM
dem-4198	108	35	0.5677	0.5677	NUM
dem-4198	108	36	2008m12	2008m12	NUM
dem-4198	108	37	0.5313	0.5313	NUM
dem-4198	108	38	0.6719	0.6719	NUM
dem-4198	108	39	0.5365	0.5365	NUM
dem-4198	108	40	0.5729	0.5729	NUM
dem-4198	108	41	tables	table	NOUN
dem-4198	108	42	3	3	NUM
dem-4198	108	43	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	108	44	4	4	NUM
dem-4198	108	45	include	include	VERB
dem-4198	108	46	assessment	assessment	NOUN
dem-4198	108	47	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	108	48	the	the	DET
dem-4198	108	49	risks	risk	NOUN
dem-4198	108	50	around	around	ADP
dem-4198	108	51	central	central	ADJ
dem-4198	108	52	projections	projection	NOUN
dem-4198	108	53	for	for	ADP
dem-4198	108	54	prices	price	NOUN
dem-4198	108	55	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	108	56	consumer	consumer	NOUN
dem-4198	108	57	goods	good	NOUN
dem-4198	108	58	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	108	59	services	service	NOUN
dem-4198	108	60	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	109	1	the	the	DET
dem-4198	109	2	predictive	predictive	ADJ
dem-4198	109	3	results	result	NOUN
dem-4198	109	4	indicate	indicate	VERB
dem-4198	109	5	that	that	SCONJ
dem-4198	109	6	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	109	7	was	be	AUX
dem-4198	109	8	more	more	ADV
dem-4198	109	9	likely	likely	ADJ
dem-4198	109	10	to	to	PART
dem-4198	109	11	be	be	AUX
dem-4198	109	12	above	above	ADP
dem-4198	109	13	target	target	NOUN
dem-4198	109	14	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	109	15	2008	2008	NUM
dem-4198	109	16	than	than	ADP
dem-4198	109	17	below	below	ADP
dem-4198	109	18	target	target	NOUN
dem-4198	109	19	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	110	1	the	the	DET
dem-4198	110	2	predictive	predictive	ADJ
dem-4198	110	3	probability	probability	NOUN
dem-4198	110	4	for	for	ADP
dem-4198	110	5	the	the	DET
dem-4198	110	6	hypothesis	hypothesis	NOUN
dem-4198	110	7	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	110	8	that	that	SCONJ
dem-4198	110	9	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	110	10	will	will	AUX
dem-4198	110	11	stay	stay	VERB
dem-4198	110	12	inside	inside	ADP
dem-4198	110	13	the	the	DET
dem-4198	110	14	targeting	targeting	NOUN
dem-4198	110	15	bound	bind	VERB
dem-4198	110	16	ranges	range	NOUN
dem-4198	110	17	from	from	ADP
dem-4198	110	18	0.0052	0.0052	NUM
dem-4198	110	19	to	to	ADP
dem-4198	110	20	0.2656	0.2656	NUM
dem-4198	110	21	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	110	22	the	the	DET
dem-4198	110	23	period	period	NOUN
dem-4198	110	24	january	january	PROPN
dem-4198	110	25	–	–	PUNCT
dem-4198	110	26	april	april	PROPN
dem-4198	110	27	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	110	28	from	from	ADP
dem-4198	110	29	0.224	0.224	NUM
dem-4198	110	30	to	to	ADP
dem-4198	110	31	0.4479	0.4479	NUM
dem-4198	110	32	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	110	33	the	the	DET
dem-4198	110	34	period	period	NOUN
dem-4198	110	35	may	may	AUX
dem-4198	110	36	–	–	PUNCT
dem-4198	110	37	august	august	PROPN
dem-4198	110	38	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	110	39	from	from	ADP
dem-4198	110	40	0.2865	0.2865	NUM
dem-4198	110	41	to	to	ADP
dem-4198	110	42	0.4688	0.4688	NUM
dem-4198	110	43	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	110	44	the	the	DET
dem-4198	110	45	jacek	jacek	PROPN
dem-4198	110	46	kwiatkowski	kwiatkowski	PROPN
dem-4198	110	47	128	128	NUM
dem-4198	110	48	period	period	NOUN
dem-4198	110	49	september	september	PROPN
dem-4198	110	50	–	–	PUNCT
dem-4198	110	51	december	december	PROPN
dem-4198	110	52	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	110	53	whereas	whereas	SCONJ
dem-4198	110	54	the	the	DET
dem-4198	110	55	predictive	predictive	ADJ
dem-4198	110	56	probability	probability	NOUN
dem-4198	110	57	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	110	58	the	the	DET
dem-4198	110	59	hypothesis	hypothesis	NOUN
dem-4198	110	60	that	that	PRON
dem-4198	110	61	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	110	62	will	will	AUX
dem-4198	110	63	be	be	AUX
dem-4198	110	64	above	above	ADP
dem-4198	110	65	the	the	DET
dem-4198	110	66	upper	upper	ADJ
dem-4198	110	67	limit	limit	NOUN
dem-4198	110	68	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	110	69	the	the	DET
dem-4198	110	70	tolerance	tolerance	NOUN
dem-4198	110	71	band	band	NOUN
dem-4198	110	72	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	110	73	3.5	3.5	NUM
dem-4198	110	74	%	%	NOUN
dem-4198	110	75	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	110	76	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	110	77	for	for	ADP
dem-4198	110	78	all	all	DET
dem-4198	110	79	months	month	NOUN
dem-4198	110	80	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	110	81	models	model	NOUN
dem-4198	110	82	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	110	83	ranges	range	VERB
dem-4198	110	84	from	from	ADP
dem-4198	110	85	0.5313	0.5313	NUM
dem-4198	110	86	to	to	ADP
dem-4198	110	87	0.9948	0.9948	NUM
dem-4198	110	88	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	111	1	these	these	DET
dem-4198	111	2	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
dem-4198	111	3	are	be	AUX
dem-4198	111	4	consistent	consistent	ADJ
dem-4198	111	5	with	with	ADP
dem-4198	111	6	true	true	ADJ
dem-4198	111	7	values	value	NOUN
dem-4198	111	8	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	111	9	annual	annual	ADJ
dem-4198	111	10	cpi	cpi	NOUN
dem-4198	111	11	because	because	SCONJ
dem-4198	111	12	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	111	13	2008	2008	NUM
dem-4198	111	14	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	111	15	according	accord	VERB
dem-4198	111	16	the	the	DET
dem-4198	111	17	gus	gus	PROPN
dem-4198	111	18	data2	data2	PROPN
dem-4198	111	19	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	111	20	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	111	21	rose	rise	VERB
dem-4198	111	22	above	above	ADP
dem-4198	111	23	the	the	DET
dem-4198	111	24	upper	upper	ADJ
dem-4198	111	25	limit	limit	NOUN
dem-4198	111	26	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	111	27	the	the	DET
dem-4198	111	28	tolerance	tolerance	NOUN
dem-4198	111	29	band	band	NOUN
dem-4198	111	30	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	112	1	during	during	ADP
dem-4198	112	2	first	first	ADJ
dem-4198	112	3	eight	eight	NUM
dem-4198	112	4	months	month	NOUN
dem-4198	112	5	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	112	6	2008	2008	NUM
dem-4198	112	7	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	112	8	cpi	cpi	PROPN
dem-4198	112	9	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	112	10	showed	show	VERB
dem-4198	112	11	a	a	DET
dem-4198	112	12	rising	rise	VERB
dem-4198	112	13	tendency	tendency	NOUN
dem-4198	112	14	–	–	PUNCT
dem-4198	112	15	from	from	ADP
dem-4198	112	16	4.0	4.0	NUM
dem-4198	112	17	%	%	NOUN
dem-4198	112	18	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	112	19	january	january	PROPN
dem-4198	112	20	to	to	ADP
dem-4198	112	21	4.8	4.8	NUM
dem-4198	112	22	%	%	NOUN
dem-4198	112	23	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	112	24	august	august	PROPN
dem-4198	112	25	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	113	1	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	113	2	the	the	DET
dem-4198	113	3	period	period	NOUN
dem-4198	113	4	september	september	PROPN
dem-4198	113	5	–	–	PUNCT
dem-4198	113	6	december	december	PROPN
dem-4198	113	7	we	we	PRON
dem-4198	113	8	observed	observe	VERB
dem-4198	113	9	decline	decline	NOUN
dem-4198	113	10	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	113	11	the	the	DET
dem-4198	113	12	annual	annual	ADJ
dem-4198	113	13	growth	growth	NOUN
dem-4198	113	14	from	from	ADP
dem-4198	113	15	4.3	4.3	NUM
dem-4198	113	16	%	%	NOUN
dem-4198	113	17	to	to	ADP
dem-4198	113	18	3.3	3.3	NUM
dem-4198	113	19	%	%	NOUN
dem-4198	113	20	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	114	1	according	accord	VERB
dem-4198	114	2	to	to	ADP
dem-4198	114	3	reports	report	NOUN
dem-4198	114	4	published	publish	VERB
dem-4198	114	5	by	by	ADP
dem-4198	114	6	nbp	nbp	PROPN
dem-4198	114	7	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	114	8	the	the	DET
dem-4198	114	9	main	main	ADJ
dem-4198	114	10	factor	factor	NOUN
dem-4198	114	11	conducing	conduce	VERB
dem-4198	114	12	to	to	ADP
dem-4198	114	13	higher	high	ADJ
dem-4198	114	14	level	level	NOUN
dem-4198	114	15	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	114	16	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	114	17	was	be	AUX
dem-4198	114	18	the	the	DET
dem-4198	114	19	prices	price	NOUN
dem-4198	114	20	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	114	21	energy	energy	NOUN
dem-4198	114	22	commodities	commodity	NOUN
dem-4198	114	23	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	114	24	the	the	DET
dem-4198	114	25	world	world	NOUN
dem-4198	114	26	market3	market3	PROPN
dem-4198	114	27	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	115	1	thus	thus	ADV
dem-4198	115	2	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	115	3	it	it	PRON
dem-4198	115	4	seems	seem	VERB
dem-4198	115	5	that	that	SCONJ
dem-4198	115	6	all	all	DET
dem-4198	115	7	models	model	NOUN
dem-4198	115	8	have	have	VERB
dem-4198	115	9	ability	ability	NOUN
dem-4198	115	10	to	to	PART
dem-4198	115	11	assess	assess	VERB
dem-4198	115	12	correctly	correctly	ADV
dem-4198	115	13	the	the	DET
dem-4198	115	14	risk	risk	NOUN
dem-4198	115	15	associated	associate	VERB
dem-4198	115	16	with	with	ADP
dem-4198	115	17	cpi	cpi	PROPN
dem-4198	115	18	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	115	19	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	116	1	4	4	X
dem-4198	116	2	.	.	X
dem-4198	116	3	conclusions	conclusion	NOUN
dem-4198	116	4	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	116	5	this	this	DET
dem-4198	116	6	paper	paper	NOUN
dem-4198	116	7	the	the	DET
dem-4198	116	8	local	local	ADJ
dem-4198	116	9	level	level	NOUN
dem-4198	116	10	models	model	NOUN
dem-4198	116	11	are	be	AUX
dem-4198	116	12	analyzed	analyze	VERB
dem-4198	116	13	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	116	14	compared	compare	VERB
dem-4198	116	15	from	from	ADP
dem-4198	116	16	point	point	NOUN
dem-4198	116	17	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	116	18	view	view	NOUN
dem-4198	116	19	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	116	20	their	their	PRON
dem-4198	116	21	ability	ability	NOUN
dem-4198	116	22	to	to	PART
dem-4198	116	23	forecast	forecast	VERB
dem-4198	116	24	monthly	monthly	ADJ
dem-4198	116	25	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	116	26	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	116	27	poland	poland	PROPN
dem-4198	116	28	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	117	1	the	the	DET
dem-4198	117	2	data	datum	NOUN
dem-4198	117	3	concern	concern	NOUN
dem-4198	117	4	the	the	DET
dem-4198	117	5	consumer	consumer	NOUN
dem-4198	117	6	price	price	NOUN
dem-4198	117	7	index	index	NOUN
dem-4198	117	8	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	117	9	they	they	PRON
dem-4198	117	10	range	range	VERB
dem-4198	117	11	from	from	ADP
dem-4198	117	12	january	january	PROPN
dem-4198	117	13	1992	1992	NUM
dem-4198	117	14	till	till	SCONJ
dem-4198	117	15	december	december	PROPN
dem-4198	117	16	2008	2008	NUM
dem-4198	117	17	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	118	1	for	for	ADP
dem-4198	118	2	each	each	DET
dem-4198	118	3	model	model	NOUN
dem-4198	118	4	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	118	5	for	for	ADP
dem-4198	118	6	each	each	DET
dem-4198	118	7	month	month	NOUN
dem-4198	118	8	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	118	9	2008	2008	NUM
dem-4198	118	10	we	we	PRON
dem-4198	118	11	constructed	construct	VERB
dem-4198	118	12	the	the	DET
dem-4198	118	13	predictive	predictive	ADJ
dem-4198	118	14	distributions	distribution	NOUN
dem-4198	118	15	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	119	1	according	accord	VERB
dem-4198	119	2	to	to	ADP
dem-4198	119	3	the	the	DET
dem-4198	119	4	sign	sign	NOUN
dem-4198	119	5	test	test	NOUN
dem-4198	119	6	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	119	7	wilcoxon	wilcoxon	PROPN
dem-4198	119	8	signed	sign	VERB
dem-4198	119	9	rank	rank	NOUN
dem-4198	119	10	test	test	NOUN
dem-4198	119	11	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	119	12	there	there	PRON
dem-4198	119	13	is	be	VERB
dem-4198	119	14	no	no	DET
dem-4198	119	15	significant	significant	ADJ
dem-4198	119	16	difference	difference	NOUN
dem-4198	119	17	between	between	ADP
dem-4198	119	18	the	the	DET
dem-4198	119	19	accuracy	accuracy	NOUN
dem-4198	119	20	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	119	21	point	point	NOUN
dem-4198	119	22	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
dem-4198	119	23	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	119	24	the	the	DET
dem-4198	119	25	competing	compete	VERB
dem-4198	119	26	specifications	specification	NOUN
dem-4198	119	27	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	120	1	also	also	ADV
dem-4198	120	2	all	all	DET
dem-4198	120	3	models	model	NOUN
dem-4198	120	4	show	show	VERB
dem-4198	120	5	correctly	correctly	ADV
dem-4198	120	6	a	a	DET
dem-4198	120	7	rising	rise	VERB
dem-4198	120	8	tendency	tendency	NOUN
dem-4198	120	9	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	120	10	annual	annual	ADJ
dem-4198	120	11	cpi	cpi	PROPN
dem-4198	120	12	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	120	13	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	121	1	analysis	analysis	NOUN
dem-4198	121	2	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	121	3	forecast	forecast	NOUN
dem-4198	121	4	accuracy	accuracy	NOUN
dem-4198	121	5	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	121	6	competing	compete	VERB
dem-4198	121	7	specifications	specification	NOUN
dem-4198	121	8	does	do	AUX
dem-4198	121	9	not	not	PART
dem-4198	121	10	lead	lead	VERB
dem-4198	121	11	to	to	ADP
dem-4198	121	12	decisive	decisive	ADJ
dem-4198	121	13	conclusion	conclusion	NOUN
dem-4198	121	14	about	about	ADP
dem-4198	121	15	superiority	superiority	NOUN
dem-4198	121	16	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	121	17	any	any	PRON
dem-4198	121	18	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	121	19	the	the	DET
dem-4198	121	20	considered	consider	VERB
dem-4198	121	21	specifications	specification	NOUN
dem-4198	121	22	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	122	1	it	it	PRON
dem-4198	122	2	seems	seem	VERB
dem-4198	122	3	that	that	SCONJ
dem-4198	122	4	we	we	PRON
dem-4198	122	5	can	can	AUX
dem-4198	122	6	identify	identify	VERB
dem-4198	122	7	at	at	ADP
dem-4198	122	8	least	least	ADV
dem-4198	122	9	two	two	NUM
dem-4198	122	10	reasons	reason	NOUN
dem-4198	122	11	why	why	SCONJ
dem-4198	122	12	unobserved	unobserved	ADJ
dem-4198	122	13	component	component	NOUN
dem-4198	122	14	model	model	NOUN
dem-4198	122	15	could	could	AUX
dem-4198	122	16	not	not	PART
dem-4198	122	17	satisfactorily	satisfactorily	ADV
dem-4198	122	18	predict	predict	VERB
dem-4198	122	19	the	the	DET
dem-4198	122	20	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	122	21	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	123	1	firstly	firstly	ADV
dem-4198	123	2	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	123	3	it	it	PRON
dem-4198	123	4	is	be	AUX
dem-4198	123	5	known	know	VERB
dem-4198	123	6	that	that	SCONJ
dem-4198	123	7	the	the	DET
dem-4198	123	8	first	first	ADJ
dem-4198	123	9	differences	difference	NOUN
dem-4198	123	10	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	123	11	local	local	ADJ
dem-4198	123	12	level	level	NOUN
dem-4198	123	13	model	model	NOUN
dem-4198	123	14	display	display	VERB
dem-4198	123	15	the	the	DET
dem-4198	123	16	same	same	ADJ
dem-4198	123	17	correlation	correlation	NOUN
dem-4198	123	18	structure	structure	NOUN
dem-4198	123	19	as	as	ADP
dem-4198	123	20	the	the	DET
dem-4198	123	21	ima(1,1	ima(1,1	NOUN
dem-4198	123	22	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	123	23	model	model	NOUN
dem-4198	123	24	–	–	PUNCT
dem-4198	123	25	that	that	ADV
dem-4198	123	26	is	is	ADV
dem-4198	123	27	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	123	28	one	one	NUM
dem-4198	123	29	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	123	30	which	which	PRON
dem-4198	123	31	the	the	DET
dem-4198	123	32	first	first	ADJ
dem-4198	123	33	order	order	NOUN
dem-4198	123	34	autocorrelation	autocorrelation	NOUN
dem-4198	123	35	is	be	AUX
dem-4198	123	36	negative	negative	ADJ
dem-4198	123	37	for	for	ADP
dem-4198	123	38	the	the	DET
dem-4198	123	39	first	first	ADJ
dem-4198	123	40	difference	difference	NOUN
dem-4198	123	41	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	123	42	series	series	NOUN
dem-4198	123	43	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	123	44	all	all	DET
dem-4198	123	45	other	other	ADJ
dem-4198	123	46	autocorrelations	autocorrelation	NOUN
dem-4198	123	47	are	be	AUX
dem-4198	123	48	zero	zero	NUM
dem-4198	123	49	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	123	50	see	see	VERB
dem-4198	123	51	west	west	NOUN
dem-4198	123	52	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	123	53	harrison	harrison	PROPN
dem-4198	123	54	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	123	55	1989	1989	NUM
dem-4198	123	56	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	123	57	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	124	1	this	this	PRON
dem-4198	124	2	is	be	AUX
dem-4198	124	3	a	a	DET
dem-4198	124	4	very	very	ADV
dem-4198	124	5	restrictive	restrictive	ADJ
dem-4198	124	6	assumption	assumption	NOUN
dem-4198	124	7	which	which	PRON
dem-4198	124	8	is	be	AUX
dem-4198	124	9	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	124	10	practice	practice	NOUN
dem-4198	124	11	very	very	ADV
dem-4198	124	12	difficult	difficult	ADJ
dem-4198	124	13	to	to	PART
dem-4198	124	14	obtain	obtain	VERB
dem-4198	124	15	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	125	1	from	from	ADP
dem-4198	125	2	preliminary	preliminary	ADJ
dem-4198	125	3	studies	study	NOUN
dem-4198	125	4	it	it	PRON
dem-4198	125	5	was	be	AUX
dem-4198	125	6	known	know	VERB
dem-4198	125	7	that	that	SCONJ
dem-4198	125	8	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	125	9	our	our	PRON
dem-4198	125	10	case	case	NOUN
dem-4198	125	11	not	not	PART
dem-4198	125	12	only	only	ADV
dem-4198	125	13	first	first	ADJ
dem-4198	125	14	but	but	CCONJ
dem-4198	125	15	also	also	ADV
dem-4198	125	16	second	second	ADJ
dem-4198	125	17	order	order	NOUN
dem-4198	125	18	autocorrelation	autocorrelation	NOUN
dem-4198	125	19	is	be	AUX
dem-4198	125	20	negative	negative	ADJ
dem-4198	125	21	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	125	22	statistically	statistically	ADV
dem-4198	125	23	significant	significant	ADJ
dem-4198	125	24	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	125	25	which	which	PRON
dem-4198	125	26	may	may	AUX
dem-4198	125	27	indicate	indicate	VERB
dem-4198	125	28	a	a	DET
dem-4198	125	29	more	more	ADV
dem-4198	125	30	complicated	complicated	ADJ
dem-4198	125	31	correlation	correlation	NOUN
dem-4198	125	32	structure	structure	NOUN
dem-4198	125	33	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	125	34	analyzed	analyze	VERB
dem-4198	125	35	process	process	NOUN
dem-4198	125	36	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	126	1	for	for	ADP
dem-4198	126	2	this	this	DET
dem-4198	126	3	reason	reason	NOUN
dem-4198	126	4	we	we	PRON
dem-4198	126	5	consider	consider	VERB
dem-4198	126	6	a	a	DET
dem-4198	126	7	second	second	ADJ
dem-4198	126	8	order	order	NOUN
dem-4198	126	9	autoregressive	autoregressive	ADJ
dem-4198	126	10	process	process	NOUN
dem-4198	126	11	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	127	1	secondly	secondly	ADV
dem-4198	127	2	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	127	3	the	the	DET
dem-4198	127	4	recent	recent	ADJ
dem-4198	127	5	publication	publication	NOUN
dem-4198	127	6	by	by	ADP
dem-4198	127	7	grassi	grassi	PROPN
dem-4198	127	8	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	127	9	proietti	proietti	PROPN
dem-4198	127	10	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	127	11	2008	2008	NUM
dem-4198	127	12	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	127	13	showed	show	VERB
dem-4198	127	14	the	the	DET
dem-4198	127	15	strong	strong	ADJ
dem-4198	127	16	evidence	evidence	NOUN
dem-4198	127	17	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	127	18	favor	favor	NOUN
dem-4198	127	19	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	127	20	the	the	DET
dem-4198	127	21	local	local	ADJ
dem-4198	127	22	level	level	NOUN
dem-4198	127	23	model	model	NOUN
dem-4198	127	24	with	with	ADP
dem-4198	127	25	heteroscedastic	heteroscedastic	ADJ
dem-4198	127	26	disturbances	disturbance	NOUN
dem-4198	127	27	only	only	ADV
dem-4198	127	28	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	127	29	the	the	DET
dem-4198	127	30	core	core	NOUN
dem-4198	127	31	component	component	NOUN
dem-4198	127	32	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	127	33	the	the	DET
dem-4198	127	34	u.s	u.s	PROPN
dem-4198	127	35	.	.	PROPN
dem-4198	127	36	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	127	37	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	127	38	whereas	whereas	SCONJ
dem-4198	127	39	the	the	DET
dem-4198	127	40	transitory	transitory	ADJ
dem-4198	127	41	component	component	NOUN
dem-4198	127	42	was	be	AUX
dem-4198	127	43	time	time	NOUN
dem-4198	127	44	invariant	invariant	ADJ
dem-4198	127	45	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	128	1	the	the	DET
dem-4198	128	2	volatility	volatility	NOUN
dem-4198	128	3	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	128	4	the	the	DET
dem-4198	128	5	disturbances	disturbance	NOUN
dem-4198	128	6	driving	drive	VERB
dem-4198	128	7	only	only	ADV
dem-4198	128	8	one	one	NUM
dem-4198	128	9	i.e.	i.e.	X
dem-4198	128	10	core	core	NOUN
dem-4198	128	11	component	component	NOUN
dem-4198	128	12	may	may	AUX
dem-4198	128	13	improve	improve	VERB
dem-4198	128	14	accuracy	accuracy	NOUN
dem-4198	128	15	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	128	16	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
dem-4198	128	17	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	129	1	2	2	NUM
dem-4198	129	2	central	central	ADJ
dem-4198	129	3	statistical	statistical	ADJ
dem-4198	129	4	office	office	NOUN
dem-4198	129	5	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	129	6	gus	gus	NOUN
dem-4198	129	7	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	129	8	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	129	9	http://www.stat.gov.pl/gus/index_eng_html.htm	http://www.stat.gov.pl/gus/index_eng_html.htm	PROPN
dem-4198	129	10	3	3	NUM
dem-4198	129	11	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	129	12	report	report	NOUN
dem-4198	129	13	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	129	14	http://www.nbp.pl/	http://www.nbp.pl/	NOUN
dem-4198	129	15	unobserved	unobserved	ADJ
dem-4198	129	16	component	component	NOUN
dem-4198	129	17	model	model	NOUN
dem-4198	129	18	for	for	ADP
dem-4198	129	19	forecasting	forecast	VERB
dem-4198	129	20	polish	polish	ADJ
dem-4198	129	21	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	129	22	129	129	NUM
dem-4198	129	23	references	reference	NOUN
dem-4198	129	24	bos	bo	NOUN
dem-4198	129	25	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	129	26	c.	c.	NOUN
dem-4198	129	27	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	129	28	2001	2001	NUM
dem-4198	129	29	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	129	30	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	129	31	time	time	NOUN
dem-4198	129	32	varying	vary	VERB
dem-4198	129	33	parameter	parameter	NOUN
dem-4198	129	34	models	model	NOUN
dem-4198	129	35	for	for	ADP
dem-4198	129	36	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	129	37	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	129	38	exchange	exchange	NOUN
dem-4198	129	39	rates	rate	NOUN
dem-4198	129	40	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	129	41	webdoc	webdoc	NOUN
dem-4198	129	42	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	130	1	diebold	diebold	PROPN
dem-4198	130	2	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	130	3	f.x	f.x	PROPN
dem-4198	130	4	.	.	PROPN
dem-4198	130	5	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	130	6	mariano	mariano	PROPN
dem-4198	130	7	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	130	8	r.s	r.s	PROPN
dem-4198	130	9	.	.	PROPN
dem-4198	130	10	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	130	11	1995	1995	NUM
dem-4198	130	12	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	130	13	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	130	14	comparing	compare	VERB
dem-4198	130	15	predictive	predictive	ADJ
dem-4198	130	16	accuracy	accuracy	NOUN
dem-4198	130	17	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	130	18	journal	journal	NOUN
dem-4198	130	19	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	130	20	business	business	NOUN
dem-4198	130	21	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	130	22	economic	economic	ADJ
dem-4198	130	23	statistics	statistic	NOUN
dem-4198	130	24	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	130	25	13	13	NUM
dem-4198	130	26	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	130	27	253–63	253–63	NUM
dem-4198	130	28	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	131	1	durbin	durbin	PROPN
dem-4198	131	2	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	131	3	j.	j.	PROPN
dem-4198	131	4	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	131	5	koopman	koopman	PROPN
dem-4198	131	6	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	131	7	s.j	s.j	PROPN
dem-4198	131	8	.	.	PROPN
dem-4198	131	9	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	131	10	2001	2001	NUM
dem-4198	131	11	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	131	12	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	131	13	time	time	NOUN
dem-4198	131	14	series	series	PROPN
dem-4198	131	15	analysis	analysis	NOUN
dem-4198	131	16	by	by	ADP
dem-4198	131	17	state	state	NOUN
dem-4198	131	18	space	space	NOUN
dem-4198	131	19	methods	method	NOUN
dem-4198	131	20	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	131	21	oxford	oxford	PROPN
dem-4198	131	22	university	university	PROPN
dem-4198	131	23	press	press	NOUN
dem-4198	131	24	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	131	25	oxford	oxford	PROPN
dem-4198	131	26	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	132	1	fallenbuchl	fallenbuchl	PROPN
dem-4198	132	2	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	132	3	z.m	z.m	PROPN
dem-4198	132	4	.	.	PROPN
dem-4198	132	5	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	132	6	1994	1994	NUM
dem-4198	132	7	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	132	8	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	132	9	foreign	foreign	ADJ
dem-4198	132	10	trade	trade	NOUN
dem-4198	132	11	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	132	12	the	the	DET
dem-4198	132	13	process	process	NOUN
dem-4198	132	14	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	132	15	transformation	transformation	NOUN
dem-4198	132	16	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	132	17	poland	poland	PROPN
dem-4198	132	18	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	132	19	atlantic	atlantic	ADJ
dem-4198	132	20	economic	economic	ADJ
dem-4198	132	21	journal	journal	NOUN
dem-4198	132	22	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	132	23	22	22	NUM
dem-4198	132	24	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	132	25	2	2	NUM
dem-4198	132	26	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	132	27	51–60	51–60	PROPN
dem-4198	132	28	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	133	1	grassi	grassi	PROPN
dem-4198	133	2	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	133	3	s.	s.	PROPN
dem-4198	133	4	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	133	5	proietti	proietti	NOUN
dem-4198	133	6	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	133	7	t.	t.	NOUN
dem-4198	133	8	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	133	9	2008	2008	NUM
dem-4198	133	10	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	133	11	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	133	12	has	have	VERB
dem-4198	133	13	the	the	DET
dem-4198	133	14	volatility	volatility	NOUN
dem-4198	133	15	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	133	16	u.s	u.s	PROPN
dem-4198	133	17	.	.	PROPN
dem-4198	133	18	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	133	19	changed	change	VERB
dem-4198	133	20	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	133	21	how	how	SCONJ
dem-4198	133	22	?	?	PUNCT
dem-4198	133	23	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	133	24	mpra	mpra	PROPN
dem-4198	133	25	paper	paper	PROPN
dem-4198	133	26	11453	11453	NUM
dem-4198	133	27	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	134	1	harvey	harvey	NOUN
dem-4198	134	2	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	134	3	a.c	a.c	PROPN
dem-4198	134	4	.	.	PROPN
dem-4198	134	5	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	134	6	1989	1989	NUM
dem-4198	134	7	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	134	8	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	134	9	forecasting	forecasting	NOUN
dem-4198	134	10	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	134	11	structural	structural	ADJ
dem-4198	134	12	time	time	NOUN
dem-4198	134	13	series	series	NOUN
dem-4198	134	14	models	model	NOUN
dem-4198	134	15	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	134	16	the	the	DET
dem-4198	134	17	kalman	kalman	PROPN
dem-4198	134	18	filter	filter	PROPN
dem-4198	134	19	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	134	20	cambridge	cambridge	PROPN
dem-4198	134	21	university	university	PROPN
dem-4198	134	22	press	press	PROPN
dem-4198	134	23	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	134	24	cambridge	cambridge	PROPN
dem-4198	134	25	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	135	1	koop	koop	PROPN
dem-4198	135	2	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	135	3	g.	g.	PROPN
dem-4198	135	4	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	135	5	2003	2003	NUM
dem-4198	135	6	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	135	7	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	135	8	bayesian	bayesian	NOUN
dem-4198	135	9	econometrics	econometrics	NOUN
dem-4198	135	10	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	135	11	john	john	PROPN
dem-4198	135	12	wiley	wiley	PROPN
dem-4198	135	13	&	&	CCONJ
dem-4198	135	14	sons	son	NOUN
dem-4198	135	15	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	136	1	koop	koop	PROPN
dem-4198	136	2	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	136	3	g.	g.	PROPN
dem-4198	136	4	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	136	5	potter	potter	NOUN
dem-4198	136	6	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	136	7	s.	s.	PROPN
dem-4198	136	8	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	136	9	2001	2001	NUM
dem-4198	136	10	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	136	11	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	136	12	are	be	AUX
dem-4198	136	13	apparent	apparent	ADJ
dem-4198	136	14	findings	finding	NOUN
dem-4198	136	15	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	136	16	nonlinearity	nonlinearity	NOUN
dem-4198	136	17	due	due	ADP
dem-4198	136	18	to	to	ADP
dem-4198	136	19	structural	structural	ADJ
dem-4198	136	20	instability	instability	NOUN
dem-4198	136	21	in	in	ADP
dem-4198	136	22	economic	economic	ADJ
dem-4198	136	23	time	time	NOUN
dem-4198	136	24	series	series	PROPN
dem-4198	136	25	?	?	PUNCT
dem-4198	136	26	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	136	27	the	the	DET
dem-4198	136	28	econometrics	econometrics	NOUN
dem-4198	136	29	journal	journal	NOUN
dem-4198	136	30	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	136	31	4	4	NUM
dem-4198	136	32	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	136	33	1	1	NUM
dem-4198	136	34	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	136	35	37–55	37–55	NUM
dem-4198	136	36	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	137	1	muth	muth	PROPN
dem-4198	137	2	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	137	3	j.f	j.f	PROPN
dem-4198	137	4	.	.	PROPN
dem-4198	137	5	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	137	6	1960	1960	NUM
dem-4198	137	7	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	137	8	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	137	9	optimal	optimal	ADJ
dem-4198	137	10	properties	property	NOUN
dem-4198	137	11	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	137	12	exponentially	exponentially	ADV
dem-4198	137	13	weighted	weight	VERB
dem-4198	137	14	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
dem-4198	137	15	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	137	16	journal	journal	NOUN
dem-4198	137	17	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	137	18	the	the	DET
dem-4198	137	19	american	american	PROPN
dem-4198	137	20	statistical	statistical	PROPN
dem-4198	137	21	association	association	NOUN
dem-4198	137	22	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	137	23	55	55	NUM
dem-4198	137	24	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	137	25	299–306	299–306	NUM
dem-4198	137	26	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	138	1	pellegrini	pellegrini	PROPN
dem-4198	138	2	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	138	3	s.	s.	PROPN
dem-4198	138	4	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	138	5	ruiz	ruiz	PROPN
dem-4198	138	6	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	138	7	e.	e.	PROPN
dem-4198	138	8	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	138	9	espasa	espasa	PROPN
dem-4198	138	10	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	138	11	a.	a.	NOUN
dem-4198	138	12	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	138	13	2007	2007	NUM
dem-4198	138	14	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	138	15	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	138	16	the	the	DET
dem-4198	138	17	relationship	relationship	NOUN
dem-4198	138	18	between	between	ADP
dem-4198	138	19	arima	arima	NOUN
dem-4198	138	20	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	138	21	garch	garch	NOUN
dem-4198	138	22	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	138	23	unobserved	unobserved	ADJ
dem-4198	138	24	component	component	NOUN
dem-4198	138	25	models	model	NOUN
dem-4198	138	26	with	with	ADP
dem-4198	138	27	garch	garch	NOUN
dem-4198	138	28	disturbances	disturbance	NOUN
dem-4198	138	29	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	138	30	working	working	NOUN
dem-4198	138	31	paper	paper	NOUN
dem-4198	138	32	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	138	33	ws072706	ws072706	PROPN
dem-4198	138	34	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	138	35	pellegrini	pellegrini	PROPN
dem-4198	138	36	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	138	37	s.	s.	PROPN
dem-4198	138	38	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	138	39	ruiz	ruiz	PROPN
dem-4198	138	40	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	138	41	e.	e.	PROPN
dem-4198	138	42	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	138	43	espasa	espasa	PROPN
dem-4198	138	44	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	138	45	a.	a.	NOUN
dem-4198	138	46	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	138	47	2008	2008	NUM
dem-4198	138	48	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	138	49	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	138	50	arima	arima	NOUN
dem-4198	138	51	-	-	PUNCT
dem-4198	138	52	garch	garch	NOUN
dem-4198	138	53	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	138	54	unobserved	unobserved	ADJ
dem-4198	138	55	component	component	NOUN
dem-4198	138	56	models	model	NOUN
dem-4198	138	57	with	with	ADP
dem-4198	138	58	garch	garch	NOUN
dem-4198	138	59	disturbances	disturbance	NOUN
dem-4198	138	60	:	:	PUNCT
dem-4198	138	61	are	be	AUX
dem-4198	138	62	their	their	PRON
dem-4198	138	63	prediction	prediction	NOUN
dem-4198	138	64	intervals	interval	NOUN
dem-4198	138	65	different	different	ADJ
dem-4198	138	66	?	?	PUNCT
dem-4198	139	1	job	job	NOUN
dem-4198	139	2	market	market	NOUN
dem-4198	139	3	paper	paper	NOUN
dem-4198	139	4	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	140	1	stock	stock	NOUN
dem-4198	140	2	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	140	3	j.h	j.h	PROPN
dem-4198	140	4	.	.	PROPN
dem-4198	140	5	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	140	6	watson	watson	PROPN
dem-4198	140	7	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	140	8	m.w	m.w	PROPN
dem-4198	140	9	.	.	PROPN
dem-4198	140	10	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	140	11	2007	2007	NUM
dem-4198	140	12	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	140	13	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	140	14	why	why	SCONJ
dem-4198	140	15	has	have	AUX
dem-4198	140	16	u.s	u.s	PROPN
dem-4198	140	17	.	.	PROPN
dem-4198	140	18	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	140	19	become	become	VERB
dem-4198	140	20	harder	hard	ADJ
dem-4198	140	21	to	to	PART
dem-4198	140	22	forecast	forecast	VERB
dem-4198	140	23	?	?	PUNCT
dem-4198	141	1	journal	journal	NOUN
dem-4198	141	2	of	of	ADP
dem-4198	141	3	money	money	NOUN
dem-4198	141	4	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	141	5	credit	credit	NOUN
dem-4198	141	6	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	141	7	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	141	8	banking	banking	NOUN
dem-4198	141	9	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	141	10	39	39	NUM
dem-4198	141	11	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	141	12	3–33	3–33	NOUN
dem-4198	141	13	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	142	1	stock	stock	NOUN
dem-4198	142	2	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	142	3	j.h	j.h	PROPN
dem-4198	142	4	.	.	PROPN
dem-4198	142	5	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	142	6	watson	watson	PROPN
dem-4198	142	7	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	142	8	m.w	m.w	PROPN
dem-4198	142	9	.	.	PROPN
dem-4198	142	10	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	142	11	2008	2008	NUM
dem-4198	142	12	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	143	1	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	143	2	phillips	phillip	NOUN
dem-4198	143	3	curve	curve	VERB
dem-4198	143	4	inflation	inflation	NOUN
dem-4198	143	5	forecasts	forecast	NOUN
dem-4198	143	6	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	143	7	working	working	NOUN
dem-4198	143	8	paper	paper	NOUN
dem-4198	143	9	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	143	10	14322	14322	NUM
dem-4198	143	11	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	144	1	west	west	NOUN
dem-4198	144	2	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	144	3	m.	m.	NOUN
dem-4198	144	4	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	144	5	harrison	harrison	PROPN
dem-4198	144	6	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	144	7	j.	j.	PROPN
dem-4198	144	8	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	144	9	1989	1989	NUM
dem-4198	144	10	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	144	11	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	144	12	bayesian	bayesian	NOUN
dem-4198	144	13	forecasting	forecasting	NOUN
dem-4198	144	14	and	and	CCONJ
dem-4198	144	15	dynamic	dynamic	ADJ
dem-4198	144	16	models	model	NOUN
dem-4198	144	17	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	144	18	springer	springer	NOUN
dem-4198	144	19	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	145	1	prognozowanie	prognozowanie	NOUN
dem-4198	145	2	inflacji	inflacji	VERB
dem-4198	145	3	w	w	PROPN
dem-4198	145	4	polsce	polsce	PROPN
dem-4198	145	5	przy	przy	PROPN
dem-4198	145	6	użyciu	użyciu	ADP
dem-4198	145	7	modelu	modelu	PROPN
dem-4198	145	8	lokalnego	lokalnego	PROPN
dem-4198	145	9	poziomu	poziomu	PROPN
dem-4198	145	10	z	z	PROPN
dem-4198	145	11	a	a	DET
dem-4198	145	12	r	r	NOUN
dem-4198	145	13	y	y	PROPN
dem-4198	145	14	s	s	PROPN
dem-4198	145	15	t	t	NOUN
dem-4198	145	16	r	r	NOUN
dem-4198	145	17	e	e	PROPN
dem-4198	145	18	ś	ś	PROPN
dem-4198	145	19	c	c	PROPN
dem-4198	145	20	i.	i.	PROPN
dem-4198	145	21	w	w	PROPN
dem-4198	145	22	artykule	artykule	PROPN
dem-4198	145	23	przeprowadzono	przeprowadzono	PROPN
dem-4198	145	24	badania	badania	PROPN
dem-4198	145	25	dotyczące	dotyczące	PROPN
dem-4198	145	26	trafności	trafności	PROPN
dem-4198	145	27	prognoz	prognoz	PROPN
dem-4198	145	28	otrzymanych	otrzymanych	PROPN
dem-4198	145	29	za	za	PROPN
dem-4198	145	30	pomocą	pomocą	PROPN
dem-4198	145	31	modelu	modelu	PROPN
dem-4198	145	32	lokalnego	lokalnego	PROPN
dem-4198	145	33	poziomu	poziomu	PROPN
dem-4198	145	34	w	w	PROPN
dem-4198	145	35	wersji	wersji	PROPN
dem-4198	145	36	stocka	stocka	NOUN
dem-4198	146	1	i	i	PRON
dem-4198	146	2	watsona	watsona	PROPN
dem-4198	146	3	(	(	PUNCT
dem-4198	146	4	2008	2008	NUM
dem-4198	146	5	)	)	PUNCT
dem-4198	146	6	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	147	1	rozważono	rozważono	PROPN
dem-4198	147	2	różne	różne	VERB
dem-4198	147	3	postacie	postacie	PROPN
dem-4198	147	4	tego	tego	PROPN
dem-4198	147	5	modelu	modelu	PROPN
dem-4198	148	1	i	i	PRON
dem-4198	148	2	zbadano	zbadano	PROPN
dem-4198	148	3	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	148	4	które	które	PROPN
dem-4198	148	5	z	z	PROPN
dem-4198	148	6	nich	nich	PROPN
dem-4198	148	7	dają	dają	PROPN
dem-4198	148	8	możliwość	możliwość	PROPN
dem-4198	148	9	uzyskania	uzyskania	PROPN
dem-4198	148	10	najtrafniejszej	najtrafniejszej	PROPN
dem-4198	148	11	prognozy	prognozy	NOUN
dem-4198	148	12	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	149	1	badania	badania	PROPN
dem-4198	149	2	empiryczne	empiryczne	PROPN
dem-4198	149	3	dotyczyły	dotyczyły	PROPN
dem-4198	149	4	inflacji	inflacji	PROPN
dem-4198	149	5	w	w	PROPN
dem-4198	149	6	polsce	polsce	PROPN
dem-4198	150	1	w	w	PROPN
dem-4198	150	2	latach	latach	NOUN
dem-4198	150	3	1992	1992	NUM
dem-4198	150	4	-	-	SYM
dem-4198	150	5	2008	2008	NUM
dem-4198	150	6	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	151	1	ostatni	ostatni	PROPN
dem-4198	151	2	rok	rok	PROPN
dem-4198	151	3	posłużył	posłużył	PROPN
dem-4198	151	4	do	do	AUX
dem-4198	151	5	oceny	oceny	VERB
dem-4198	151	6	jakości	jakości	PROPN
dem-4198	151	7	prognoz	prognoz	PROPN
dem-4198	151	8	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	152	1	badania	badania	PROPN
dem-4198	152	2	przeprowadzono	przeprowadzono	PROPN
dem-4198	152	3	na	na	PROPN
dem-4198	152	4	podstawie	podstawie	PROPN
dem-4198	152	5	wskaźnika	wskaźnika	PROPN
dem-4198	152	6	cen	cen	PROPN
dem-4198	152	7	konsumenta	konsumenta	PROPN
dem-4198	152	8	cpi	cpi	PROPN
dem-4198	152	9	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	153	1	uzyskane	uzyskane	PROPN
dem-4198	153	2	wyniki	wyniki	PROPN
dem-4198	153	3	nie	nie	PROPN
dem-4198	153	4	potwierdzają	potwierdzają	PROPN
dem-4198	153	5	jednoznacznej	jednoznacznej	PROPN
dem-4198	153	6	przewagi	przewagi	NOUN
dem-4198	153	7	modelu	modelu	PROPN
dem-4198	153	8	lokalnego	lokalnego	PROPN
dem-4198	153	9	poziomu	poziomu	PROPN
dem-4198	153	10	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	153	11	w	w	PROPN
dem-4198	153	12	prognozowaniu	prognozowaniu	PROPN
dem-4198	153	13	inflacji	inflacji	NOUN
dem-4198	153	14	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	153	15	nad	nad	PROPN
dem-4198	153	16	standardowym	standardowym	PROPN
dem-4198	153	17	modelem	modelem	NOUN
dem-4198	153	18	autoregresyjnym	autoregresyjnym	PROPN
dem-4198	153	19	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	153	20	wszystkie	wszystkie	PROPN
dem-4198	153	21	modele	modele	PROPN
dem-4198	153	22	uzyskały	uzyskały	ADP
dem-4198	153	23	zadowalającą	zadowalającą	PROPN
dem-4198	153	24	dokładność	dokładność	NOUN
dem-4198	153	25	prognozy	prognozy	ADJ
dem-4198	153	26	.	.	PUNCT
dem-4198	154	1	s	s	PART
dem-4198	154	2	ł	ł	PROPN
dem-4198	154	3	o	o	X
dem-4198	154	4	w	w	NOUN
dem-4198	154	5	a	a	DET
dem-4198	154	6	k	k	X
dem-4198	154	7	l	l	NOUN
dem-4198	154	8	u	u	NOUN
dem-4198	155	1	c	c	NOUN
dem-4198	155	2	z	z	NOUN
dem-4198	155	3	o	o	X
dem-4198	155	4	w	w	PROPN
dem-4198	156	1	e	e	NOUN
dem-4198	156	2	:	:	PUNCT
dem-4198	156	3	model	model	NOUN
dem-4198	156	4	lokalnego	lokalnego	PROPN
dem-4198	156	5	poziomu	poziomu	PROPN
dem-4198	156	6	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	156	7	prognozowanie	prognozowanie	NOUN
dem-4198	156	8	,	,	PUNCT
dem-4198	156	9	inflacja	inflacja	NOUN
dem-4198	156	10	.	.	PUNCT